It is the irony of life that the peace we have to enjoy life is based on a willful blindness to the many natural and non-natural threats to life.
6
I'll be honest,neither I or the two people I live with are close to being as disaster ready as you,Timothy.There are numerous disasters we're vulnerable to here North of Seattle,where live,including this year ,record drought ,giving us on this side of the cascades an uncommon wildfire risk.This morning-Aug. 23-it's a bit smoky from the Chelan fires.A it's much worse in Northern Idaho,where I was visiting a week ago. But for all the risks I wouldn't trade the beautiful PNW for any place else.
BTW,Timothy,yesterday I was in Seattle's Elliot Bay Bookstore,where I happened upon and bought "The Big Burn," your book about the 1910 wildfire.So far it's a very good read.
BTW,Timothy,yesterday I was in Seattle's Elliot Bay Bookstore,where I happened upon and bought "The Big Burn," your book about the 1910 wildfire.So far it's a very good read.
9
I own a house in the forest of northwestern Minnesota. I buy fire insurance there and the premium is low. That is wrong. If I want to live on private land in the forest, that's my decision but should also be my risk. Others shouldn't have to subsidize my risk and firefighters shouldn't put themselves at risk by trying to save my home during a fire.
We subsidize, and therefore encourage, risky behavior by insuring buildings in forests. Most of the financial cost of fighting fires and replacing buildings, and most of the cost in injuries and deaths to firefighters is due to people who choose to reside in areas at high risk of burning. And, fire suppression policies have resulted in more and more damaging fires. Recently, another man-made risk, climate warming, appears to be aggravating the severity and expanse of fires.
We should let most forest fires burn. There have been forest fires for thousands of years in this country. Before man started living in wild, forested areas we had healthy forests because most fires would clear undergrowth periodically without killing the big trees. This is where the old existential statement is true - If brush burns in the forest but no one is there to observe it, did it really burn? Answer: Yes, but if no human is harmed it won't matter to us.
If individuals are going to take these risks, those individuals should be prepared to pay the full cost of their risk taking.
We subsidize, and therefore encourage, risky behavior by insuring buildings in forests. Most of the financial cost of fighting fires and replacing buildings, and most of the cost in injuries and deaths to firefighters is due to people who choose to reside in areas at high risk of burning. And, fire suppression policies have resulted in more and more damaging fires. Recently, another man-made risk, climate warming, appears to be aggravating the severity and expanse of fires.
We should let most forest fires burn. There have been forest fires for thousands of years in this country. Before man started living in wild, forested areas we had healthy forests because most fires would clear undergrowth periodically without killing the big trees. This is where the old existential statement is true - If brush burns in the forest but no one is there to observe it, did it really burn? Answer: Yes, but if no human is harmed it won't matter to us.
If individuals are going to take these risks, those individuals should be prepared to pay the full cost of their risk taking.
43
Drone technology is advancing rapidly. I see it as the next major technological advancement of my life following the internet and computers. As weird as it seems now It is very conceivable that within the next 10-20 years we'll have affordable drone technology capable of lifting humans. It may sound crazy but doesn't seem so far fetched to me. In the case of an approaching tsunami families can use their "emergency" drones to become airborne. This will also change the paradigm for escaping fires in tall buildings and many other types of disasters.
3
There is a fault line between intuitive thinkers like Timothy Egan, who see future consequences of today's actions (and failures to act), and who hope decision-makers have "foresight to spend money on things that may not have an immediate benefit," and sensory thinkers who see only what is tangible, who can't visualize the future, and so are loathe to spend money on threats they say are theoretical. The difference between intuitive and sensory personality types is hard-wired at birth and drives our choices careers and even politics, so that a scientist who studies earthquake faults, and a columnist who warns about them, is likely an intuitive type -- and liberal; while a businessman who builds buildings, a worker who earthquake-proofs them, and a fireman who runs into them after an earthquake to rescue babies are likely sensory types -- and conservative.
The gaping fault line gets ever wider between liberals with foresight and conservatives without it; this fault line more than any other threatens our health and safety. A healthy society would have both types in government, treating each other with mutual respect, when making decisions about how to spend money; liberal, long-term thinkers bringing their warnings, and conservatives their budgets, together solving hidden problems on the horizon. But today conservative majorities ignore warnings, deny science, and refuse to spend money on anything that does not have an immediate benefit.
The gaping fault line gets ever wider between liberals with foresight and conservatives without it; this fault line more than any other threatens our health and safety. A healthy society would have both types in government, treating each other with mutual respect, when making decisions about how to spend money; liberal, long-term thinkers bringing their warnings, and conservatives their budgets, together solving hidden problems on the horizon. But today conservative majorities ignore warnings, deny science, and refuse to spend money on anything that does not have an immediate benefit.
21
Mr. Egan, to complete your day, I will call to your attention another unique hazard to living in Seattle. Several Years ago it was discovered that out in the middle of your Union Bay lies a secondary threat to downtown Seattle. Because back in the early 20th century as Seattle sluiced down the tall and lovely and much-missed Denny Hill (where upon the Seattle Center and the Space Needle now reside), using mining technology the offending hill and its dirt was washed down to the shoreline where two-sided flippable sand barges carried the mud out into both the middle of the Bay and beyond to the growing man-made industrial site now known as Harbor Island. Upon arrival at the dump sites petcocks were opened and the barges flipped over dumping their cargo into Union Bay. Well, of course, after several thousand barge loads a mountain was created on the Bay floor that reached up to just below the keels of passing ships. Therefore, when the the big earthquake hits Seattle, the subsequent unrest on the Bay's floor will liquify the dirt mountain, with a resulting mini-tsunami of water and mud heading straight to First Avenue and Pioneer Square, then second Avenue, then third. At least. Meanwhile Harbor Island, with all its industrial and commercial interests will, in mere minutes, also disappear. I guess the two Denny Hill regrades are another lesson in the eventual costs of pioneering but unthinking development. Sleep well, sir.
8
Today I am leaving South Whidbey Island from a spot that, I guess, would be in the path of the Tsunami roaring down the Strait of Juan de Fuca past Port Angeles and Victoria. At least someone left a copy of the New Yorker on a coffee table of our family-owned vacation place with a notation "Plan your evacuation route" and a hand drawn map inside. I return to Spokane, which is enveloped in smoke from the Central Washington wildfires, as illustrated in this pair of before and after pictures taken from the same vantage point.
https://www.facebook.com/KREM2/photos/a.108023366300.106769.104301781300...
I am reminded of Robert Frost's poem "Fire and Ice".
https://www.facebook.com/KREM2/photos/a.108023366300.106769.104301781300...
I am reminded of Robert Frost's poem "Fire and Ice".
6
Well, life goes on.
We are a speck on a speck.
We are a speck on a speck.
7
or a meteor can crush any of us into dust at any second , no matter what space we inhabit on the planet and cause a tsunami of unparalleled size along any part of any coast - "prepare to meet your God"
3
It’s fairly well-known that one of our highest suicide rates is found in the Pacific Northwest, possibly because of the incidence of drizzly, overcast days there. Tim Egan, who lives in Seattle, gives us reason with this column to remember that fact.
The Really Big One may be a cataclysm when it happens, taking over 13,000 lives; but … we all die. THAT’S the biggest natural disaster in any individual’s life, and it’s far more inevitable than a monster earthquake. You can live where you wish, and whether you’re taken by a drunk driver, or by some weird flu hatched in China, or by a monster earthquake, or by the eventual wearing out of an ancient body … you can be sure that you’ll be taken. It’s the one thing that connects every human to every other, from a homeless vagrant to Charles Koch.
I remember the 1965 earthquake well – I was a boy in Tacoma, about 40 miles south of where and when Tim was one in Seattle (he’s about 6 months older than I). The sidewalks actually undulated: was certain I was done for. But I survived it, still awaiting the weird Chinese flu or the drunk driver … or perhaps the Really Big One on a trip to California, where, atop Big Sur, I might get a birds-eye view of the granddaddy of all tsunamis coming to say goodbye.
My advice is to enjoy living wherever you are, and support the injection into the fault lines of all the political ooze we’re generating this year and next. Could be enough to push off the Really Big One by another century.
The Really Big One may be a cataclysm when it happens, taking over 13,000 lives; but … we all die. THAT’S the biggest natural disaster in any individual’s life, and it’s far more inevitable than a monster earthquake. You can live where you wish, and whether you’re taken by a drunk driver, or by some weird flu hatched in China, or by a monster earthquake, or by the eventual wearing out of an ancient body … you can be sure that you’ll be taken. It’s the one thing that connects every human to every other, from a homeless vagrant to Charles Koch.
I remember the 1965 earthquake well – I was a boy in Tacoma, about 40 miles south of where and when Tim was one in Seattle (he’s about 6 months older than I). The sidewalks actually undulated: was certain I was done for. But I survived it, still awaiting the weird Chinese flu or the drunk driver … or perhaps the Really Big One on a trip to California, where, atop Big Sur, I might get a birds-eye view of the granddaddy of all tsunamis coming to say goodbye.
My advice is to enjoy living wherever you are, and support the injection into the fault lines of all the political ooze we’re generating this year and next. Could be enough to push off the Really Big One by another century.
11
The West is on fire. Yes, thinking about earthquakes is ghastly. We don't fit disaster into our daily lives. Living anywhere on the Ring of Fire is tempting fate. But then breathing is tempting fate, isn't it? We all have our appointments in Samarra, our dates with the Third Fate, Atropos, "The Inevitable", 'The Unavoidable". She who snips the thread of life. Collective anxiety is what we mortals feel here on earth, no matter where we live. In the big scheme of things, there is no safe place. Change is the only constant, and one who lives in the Ring of Fire (or anywhere else on this blue orb) would do well to ignore obsessing and parsing the odds of The Really Big One, as it could come tomorrow or in a century, knocking our silly worries into a cocked hat.
2
I think the solution is drink the wine in the cellar and relax. Drink a big old bulbous glass and sit next to your wood-burning stove and listen to the rain fall and watch the trees change color. Thinking about percentages and foundation cracks and the ifs and whens, while squirreling away wine, will only create anxiety and ulcers. Earthquake preparation task #1: Have a neighborhood wine party. Bake up some salmon. Hire a local folk band to perform in your backyard--and the worry goes away.
18
As futile as it is, you have to plan in order to stay sane. When the New Yorker article first stirred everything up, I called our son and said I had calculated how long it would take him to walk (and swim) from Seattle to Yakima where he would be safe on our quiet little hilltop. I just heard a groan on the other end of the line. It was followed by a snicker. I got the impression he wasn't embracing my concern.
A week later, I took another tack. I asked my 70 year-old backcountry horse packer if -- assuming she was still alive -- she would pack cross the mountains with me to pick up my kids. No snickering on her part. I think she'd like to start out tomorrow.
I felt better until the fires started. Now, what do I do about all the cheatgrass surrounding my quiet little hilltop?
A week later, I took another tack. I asked my 70 year-old backcountry horse packer if -- assuming she was still alive -- she would pack cross the mountains with me to pick up my kids. No snickering on her part. I think she'd like to start out tomorrow.
I felt better until the fires started. Now, what do I do about all the cheatgrass surrounding my quiet little hilltop?
12
"...Not to mention the larger threat of climate change..."
Climate change isn't merely a threat, as in sometime in the future; it's here and now. It's a product of global warming, which is also here and now. We have to realize this if we're going to be able to deal with it. Objects in the mirror are much, much closer than they appear.
Climate change isn't merely a threat, as in sometime in the future; it's here and now. It's a product of global warming, which is also here and now. We have to realize this if we're going to be able to deal with it. Objects in the mirror are much, much closer than they appear.
16
I've lived in California for 70 years so far, and as soon as I became able to comprehend language I started hearing about how The Big One (earthquake) was coming and it's gonna get me.
Now I learn that there is a 10 to 15 percent chance of it arriving over the next 50 years, but a 50 year span does not worry me any more, and anyway, where do these probability numbers come from? It's pure guesswork.
If The Big One thinks it's going to get me it's going to have to hurry up.
Now I learn that there is a 10 to 15 percent chance of it arriving over the next 50 years, but a 50 year span does not worry me any more, and anyway, where do these probability numbers come from? It's pure guesswork.
If The Big One thinks it's going to get me it's going to have to hurry up.
5
Stirring, disturbing, worrisome, anxiety-prone words Mr. Egan. Man will feel all-powerful, invincible, lord of all he surveys, well-armed and well-prepared. But nothing could be further from the truth. We are like ants ready to be squished any time Nature wants to. All the propane, emergency supplies, wood homes etc. cannot ward off Nature's fury. Man proposes, Nature disposes. Period. But we can at least follow some sane advice from our scientists and avoid hastening the beginning of the end. But the greedy climate-deniers, ignoramuses, nincompoops refuse to open their eyes to the DANGER awaiting us. And when they do it will be under-water where it does not matter anymore. P.S. Contributing my share into the predictable, WILL happen gloom and doom!
4
We live in an age of Armageddon anxiety because we refuse to face squarely the looming disaster that most threatens humanity, one that is entirely and inarguably of human origin, nuclear war. As long as we continue to whistle past that monster of our own creation there will continue to be a cottage industry for this kind of misdirected concern. Climate, weather, ebola, terrorism, all of it pales beside this disaster we could unleash on ourselves at any moment.
We live in fear of ourselves but project it on everything and anything around us rather than face our own culpability. The only sane approach is to realize that collectively we are not sane and go for a motorcycle ride in the country.
We live in fear of ourselves but project it on everything and anything around us rather than face our own culpability. The only sane approach is to realize that collectively we are not sane and go for a motorcycle ride in the country.
4
Humans are stuck in time and distance scales relative to our lifetimes and what we can see and feel. That things happened thousands, millions or billions of years ago is as meaningless and comprehending how far a light year is, or the distance between the nucleus of an atom and the electron cloud swirling it (never mind we can't exactly say where those electrons are).
So we are content that things will be as they are now, just better with new gadgets and gizmos. That we will conquer illness and repair injuries with ever increasing technology and skill. That there will always be plenty of clean water and air and bountiful food supplies.
At least people in the Pacific Northwest do respect the lands we live in, think about the future as best they can, and have a genuine bit of humility about our place in the world. Were it true for the policy makers.
So we are content that things will be as they are now, just better with new gadgets and gizmos. That we will conquer illness and repair injuries with ever increasing technology and skill. That there will always be plenty of clean water and air and bountiful food supplies.
At least people in the Pacific Northwest do respect the lands we live in, think about the future as best they can, and have a genuine bit of humility about our place in the world. Were it true for the policy makers.
11
Not a reasonable choice for locating the [failed] Hanford toxic nuclear waste "storage" site; if that gets burned or shaken or stirred, it's a wasteland. Forever.
6
When you talk about letting it slide for 100 years or so, by putting off until tomorrow, what should be done today, you sound like Scarlet O'Hara in "Gone With The Wind". Do you really care so little about your future family generations that you wish to do nothing NOW? That's what all of our politicians have been doing for decades and that's why we're in the mess we're in.
3
Don't forget high quality can openers and corkscrews
4
It is tourist season in Bandon by the Sea. If the Tsunami sirens go off, followed by a really big shake all the visitors on the beach will only have time to run toward their cars. Few, if any will make it to a point far enough inland and high enough in elevation to survive.
So we do not merely make decisions when we decide where we might live. If the Cascadia fault unleashes a 9 or greater there will be many a golfer and beachcomber who will fall to the regions beauty.
Humans must eventually make peace with the hard fact that we are subject to the same forces that affected the dinosaurs.
So we do not merely make decisions when we decide where we might live. If the Cascadia fault unleashes a 9 or greater there will be many a golfer and beachcomber who will fall to the regions beauty.
Humans must eventually make peace with the hard fact that we are subject to the same forces that affected the dinosaurs.
4
Small brains?
5
What is truly sad is that short-sighted politicians and their greedy developer friends will insure that no long-term planning or building for disasters will take place. That's what will cost the lives of thousands of people.
We can't even get money for basic infrastructure repairs. Bridges are used as tools against political enemies, but if one of them falls down, "the buck doesn't stop here."
We can't even get money for basic infrastructure repairs. Bridges are used as tools against political enemies, but if one of them falls down, "the buck doesn't stop here."
27
Try Connecticut. Very beautiful. Much less dangerous.
5
To most, Climate Change is analogous to the Loch Ness monster; to some it is a reality, for others, it is just a myth. The subject of Climate Change is akin to the tide on the sea shore, rising and receding with monotonous regularity and, every now and again, a ‘spring tide’ of concern, due to a revelation or two, will raise people’s guilt or worries for a moment, until all dissipates, quietly, silently, according to the political currents of the day.
This autumn there will be another climate summit; Paris is the venue for the twenty first summit (COP 21) since the 1990’s. Yet gain, the noble, the pious and the concerned will deliberate. Again they will go on in strange paradox, deciding only to be undecided, resolved only to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent.
And of course that green-wash word ‘Sustainability’ will adorn every poster, be uttered reverently in every speech, eulogised within every accord, while underneath their very feet, the summit will stand firmly on those pillars of ‘sustainability’, built from bricks of hedonistic self-indulgence, the mortar holding them in place, made from pointless rhetoric (which is in abundant supply) poured from a bucket labeled ‘Climate Summit’ and spread by a trowel called apathy!
These summits will always will be accords to ‘agree to disagree’ with a sprinkle of fine semantics, until we face up to the consequences of hiding from the facts!
This autumn there will be another climate summit; Paris is the venue for the twenty first summit (COP 21) since the 1990’s. Yet gain, the noble, the pious and the concerned will deliberate. Again they will go on in strange paradox, deciding only to be undecided, resolved only to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent.
And of course that green-wash word ‘Sustainability’ will adorn every poster, be uttered reverently in every speech, eulogised within every accord, while underneath their very feet, the summit will stand firmly on those pillars of ‘sustainability’, built from bricks of hedonistic self-indulgence, the mortar holding them in place, made from pointless rhetoric (which is in abundant supply) poured from a bucket labeled ‘Climate Summit’ and spread by a trowel called apathy!
These summits will always will be accords to ‘agree to disagree’ with a sprinkle of fine semantics, until we face up to the consequences of hiding from the facts!
4
The vino in the cellar should be sampled and replaced frequently to assure freshness in the event of an actual emergency . . . or contemplating your Pompeii moment.
14
The vino, if from a good year, will get better when ageing. One only has to taste one of the bottles after 20 plus years to see that the vino didn't turn into vinegar.
1
For almost 25 years my house in the Bay Area sat atop the infamous Hayward Fault (it's still there - I'm not!). Earthquakes were honestly something I rarely thought about. How can you - it will just make you crazy if you choose to stay there.
4
Well you could move to Southwestern Pennsylvania where none of this happens.
1
So you live in Seattle? I guess....The fires and smoke are way beyond the earthquake scare.....That fault is miles off the coast at least in OR....all our cities are inland.
Other than keep emergency supplies at home, and hope you're at home to use them, I see no getting ready for the big one, despite all the breathless reporting by local media. I've with you Tim. Let it come later...much later.
4
Tim, face it. Your biggest risk is when driving in your car today. Sad to say, all the stored canned tuna in the world won't help much with that.
46
Or walking across the street...
Tim, don't forget the 5.6 quake we had in Seattle on May 2, 1996. That's four quakes your house has survived!
4
Maybe the subliminal angst about nature's potential danger is part of what makes us enjoy its beauty .
7
Disaster is something all of us who live in the Ring of Fire (especially AK, BC, WA and OR---who don't usually get the press that California gets) should be aware of--and prepared for.
I'm not talking just the Magnitude 9--or its smaller 6+ magnitude cousins--earthquake that Tim Egan talks about. I'm also talking about what happens when (not if) Tahoma (Mount Rainier to those who have not lived within visual distance of it) blows. Do you remember when Mount St. Helens erupted and turned the world's eyes on our corner of the country? There will be virtually no comparison to the (relatively) small amount of destruction St. Helens did when it erupted and St. Helens is (still) far further from large populations centers than Tahoma is. At a minimum, folks who live or work in area code 253 should be prepared to lose their homes and businesses.
With climate change and the icebergs melting, in the near future, the Puget Sound landscape will look very different than it does today. For example, there will be lots more waterfront and island properties in Seattle (your house may be one of those--assuming that (like me) you're fortunate to currently live at a high enough elevation. I'm at the top of a ridge so it looks like that I won't be waterfront (because of the elevation changes, the folks who live three blocks west of me, six blocks east of me, and a block south of me will be). That's fine; I don't need to be.
Right now I am more worried about our beloved rain forest burning.
I'm not talking just the Magnitude 9--or its smaller 6+ magnitude cousins--earthquake that Tim Egan talks about. I'm also talking about what happens when (not if) Tahoma (Mount Rainier to those who have not lived within visual distance of it) blows. Do you remember when Mount St. Helens erupted and turned the world's eyes on our corner of the country? There will be virtually no comparison to the (relatively) small amount of destruction St. Helens did when it erupted and St. Helens is (still) far further from large populations centers than Tahoma is. At a minimum, folks who live or work in area code 253 should be prepared to lose their homes and businesses.
With climate change and the icebergs melting, in the near future, the Puget Sound landscape will look very different than it does today. For example, there will be lots more waterfront and island properties in Seattle (your house may be one of those--assuming that (like me) you're fortunate to currently live at a high enough elevation. I'm at the top of a ridge so it looks like that I won't be waterfront (because of the elevation changes, the folks who live three blocks west of me, six blocks east of me, and a block south of me will be). That's fine; I don't need to be.
Right now I am more worried about our beloved rain forest burning.
23
What was most disturbing to me about that New Yorker article was the story of the one coastal town (Seaside) that refused to fund a school bond to build a K-12 campus on higher ground so that students might actually survive if there were a tsunami.
All life involves accepting some unforeseeable risk. Then there is throwing caution to the wind, even when it comes to making plans to, at minimum, try to protect children who might otherwise be trapped in their sea-level schools.
One can only hope that those plates stay stuck long enough for a wiser electorate to take the current one's place.
All life involves accepting some unforeseeable risk. Then there is throwing caution to the wind, even when it comes to making plans to, at minimum, try to protect children who might otherwise be trapped in their sea-level schools.
One can only hope that those plates stay stuck long enough for a wiser electorate to take the current one's place.
38
I hear you Tim. Here in Oregon it's the same. awe understand and we wait.
hopefully, for nothing.
Right now our best friends in Twisp are waiting it out as the fires surge around them. Today's satellite shows the northwest buried in smoke, smoke that runs down the Willamette Valley, and as the satellite clearly shows, well out to sea.
We are our best defense. Not just with preparation, but in understanding that we have to be responsible for ourselves, our neighbors and our nation.
While I can't stop an earthquake, I can at least try and protect us from Trump, a bloviating human disaster, dependent solely on humans to enable or stop.
P.S. Make sure your water heater is bolted to the wall.
hopefully, for nothing.
Right now our best friends in Twisp are waiting it out as the fires surge around them. Today's satellite shows the northwest buried in smoke, smoke that runs down the Willamette Valley, and as the satellite clearly shows, well out to sea.
We are our best defense. Not just with preparation, but in understanding that we have to be responsible for ourselves, our neighbors and our nation.
While I can't stop an earthquake, I can at least try and protect us from Trump, a bloviating human disaster, dependent solely on humans to enable or stop.
P.S. Make sure your water heater is bolted to the wall.
11
Without that Ring of Fire, the massive volcano bubbling under Yellowstone Park, none of us would be here. All this geological activity means Life. Earth is not a dead planet like Mars. It seems we have life with the iron fist of nature ever ready to punch out our lights. We live with it, we deal with it the best we can. We have no other choice. Meanwhile enjoy your home and have a glass of that wine.
5
Somehow, it never occurred to most of us that Timothy Egan would end up as a survivalist. In the list of emergency equipment and provisions for the Egan Bunker, no mention is made of automatic weapons to fend off neighbors who foolishly made no plans for The Big One.
1
Awareness of the seismic hazards in the Northwest can only help preparedness for the event that will come. Yet I wonder, why is the tipping point of public consciousness of the danger of the Cascadia subduction zone - like public acceptance that vaccines do not cause autism, that human emissions are causing climate change, and that GMO foods are safe - literally decades behind firm scientific consensus? And why is large-scale transformative action still lacking?
7
We have never as a people, been good about planning ahead. Most folks don't have near enough retirement savings, most don't have more than a weeks worth of food stored, and less water. We all hope someone else, down the road will fix global warming. We often look askance at those who have made some disaster preparation. Face it team, we don't act, we react.
11
Yes Mr. Egan, whether it is forest fires or mudslides, tornadoes or blizzards, everyone faces instability from our environment. The important thing is to understand what causes the phenomena, how humans can affect the patterns, and what we can do to mitigate risks. The worst aspect is seeing politicians exploit nature for their own purposes, like Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann who, when running for President, suggested that an East Coast earthquake was God expressing anger, or James Inhofe, Chairman of the Senate Environment Committee, who believes that the Bible teaches all he needs to know about the earth. We all need science and knowledge, not superstition and plague stories!
17
Tectonic plates keep moving, albeit slowly, with a most unsettling regularity. It is 'not if but when' phenomenon. It just so happens we cannot, yet, measure the date it will occur. As to why we continue to live there, instead of vacating that land for occasional visits only, may be a reflection that our stupidity knows no limits. It is as if you were to build your home in the midst of the forests we or nature sets on fire, year in, year out. Wait a minute, aren't we there already?
6
It's always good to remind people that nature can turn on you in an instant. Unfortunately, you can't get our elected leaders to deal with the problems in front of them right now, let alone get them to think in geological time.
14
In 1962, the BBC made a show about San Francisco titled "The City that Waits to Die". Despite the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, we are still here, but who knows for how much longer. Our little city seems to be disproportionately influential, so I hope that we stick around for a while.
5
I was born in Seattle in 1948 and experienced a lot of earthquakes. Because I didn't like living with the fact of earthquakes always in the "back of my mind", as soon as my husband and I retired we moved into our vacation home in Languedoc. It's like a weight lifted off my shoulders - and the countryside here is even more beautiful than in Seattle. We still own a small house in Seattle for visits, which we got retrofitted for earthquake, but I'm always anxious to get back to beautiful Languedoc.
5
I often read these predictions and wonder how today's society could survive a disaster like this. The AC in my 6 year old grandson's home was broken for a few days and he went around bemoaning that he could not live without it, if my niece's cell phone should stop her life is over.
12
". . . you wouldn’t have stayed here without the conditions that created that risk."
Humans are inherently risk takers to have survived this long. But are we judicious in our assessment of the risk and our ability to overcome it? Sometimes I am in awe thinking of all the advancements that have helped overcome adverse conditions, but sometimes I shake my head and wonder.
Humans are inherently risk takers to have survived this long. But are we judicious in our assessment of the risk and our ability to overcome it? Sometimes I am in awe thinking of all the advancements that have helped overcome adverse conditions, but sometimes I shake my head and wonder.
4
300 years ago, the entire population of the US was considerably less than that of Seattle alone. We have overpopulated the nation, and in fact the planet, to the point where every 'natural disaster' that 300 years ago might have killed only a few humans - or none - and maybe knocked down a wattle-and-mud hut or two - quickly rebuilt - now reaps hundreds or thousands of bodies and destroys elaborate infrastructures.
One is tempted to believe Gaia is trying to shake us off as a dog tries to shake and scratch off a flea infestation. We have set up moral and ethical systems placing human life at the centre, and invented a sky fairy who shares our values. So it is sobering to be reminded of our delusions - that the planet does not give a damn about us.
The problem is not with nature. It is with us. We are, as Hardy's Little Father Time said, 'too menny'.
One is tempted to believe Gaia is trying to shake us off as a dog tries to shake and scratch off a flea infestation. We have set up moral and ethical systems placing human life at the centre, and invented a sky fairy who shares our values. So it is sobering to be reminded of our delusions - that the planet does not give a damn about us.
The problem is not with nature. It is with us. We are, as Hardy's Little Father Time said, 'too menny'.
21
The Pacific Northwest is by far the most scenic location in the U.S. It is a Paradise, but also an ecological disaster zone. Where is the pleasure of living there when you are playing Russian roulette.
3
How true that one's life can be uprooted inexplicably by a strange turn of events just by being at the wrong place at the wrong time. Whether a distracted driver careens unexpectedly into a crowd or a terrorist decides to commit mayhem, or a Bear wanders across an isolated hiking path or lightening strikes, one is constantly reminded of the finality of life.
What's interesting about climate change is it's relationship to the core of the Earth which exacerbates techtonic plate activity. A NASA study found that human influences on climate during the past 80 years mask the natural balance that exists among Earth's rotation, the core angular momentum & the temperature of the Earth & ocean's surface. These 3 components have been in equilibrium until recently which disturbs the Earth's magnetic shielding of charged-particle (i.e., cosmic ray) fluxes that affect the formation of clouds. This could affect how much of the sun's energy is reflected back to space & how much is absorbed by topsoil. The core process underlying volcanic & plate activity are indirectly effected by climate as solar processes affect both the core & climate simultaneously.
When 3,000 year old Sequoia trees are wilting & dying due to climate change & places like Iran & Iraq record 150 plus temperatures, it's time for the developing world to drastically change a lifestyle based on consumerism, greed & little regard for the environment. What will it take for people to wake up to the crisis on our planet?
What's interesting about climate change is it's relationship to the core of the Earth which exacerbates techtonic plate activity. A NASA study found that human influences on climate during the past 80 years mask the natural balance that exists among Earth's rotation, the core angular momentum & the temperature of the Earth & ocean's surface. These 3 components have been in equilibrium until recently which disturbs the Earth's magnetic shielding of charged-particle (i.e., cosmic ray) fluxes that affect the formation of clouds. This could affect how much of the sun's energy is reflected back to space & how much is absorbed by topsoil. The core process underlying volcanic & plate activity are indirectly effected by climate as solar processes affect both the core & climate simultaneously.
When 3,000 year old Sequoia trees are wilting & dying due to climate change & places like Iran & Iraq record 150 plus temperatures, it's time for the developing world to drastically change a lifestyle based on consumerism, greed & little regard for the environment. What will it take for people to wake up to the crisis on our planet?
43
Yes, a magnitude 8 or 9 quake is inevitable at some point. Both in the Seattle area and along the San Andreas Fault in California.
Life is not without risk.
And virtually no building, large or small, is designed today to withstand such very large quakes if it's located close to the epicenter (it may be theoretically possible to construct such buildings or improve survival chances through retrofits, but it's not economically feasible at present - at least not for a Mag 9 event).
When a quake that big hits all you can realistically do is hope you are out of town that day.
Life is not without risk.
And virtually no building, large or small, is designed today to withstand such very large quakes if it's located close to the epicenter (it may be theoretically possible to construct such buildings or improve survival chances through retrofits, but it's not economically feasible at present - at least not for a Mag 9 event).
When a quake that big hits all you can realistically do is hope you are out of town that day.
5
"The larger question, from Seattle to Sagamore Hill, is how we fit disaster into our daily lives — a pact with the known unknown. There is no such thing as a safe place on this earth."
Your column reminded me, in a strange way, of the Cold War 50s and 60s living under threat of nuclear war. No, not natural disasters threatening us in Bergen County, NJ, but another Nagasaki. I was so paranoid in grammar school and early high school that I twice asked my Dad to consider building a bomb shelter, which he wouldn't once he saw the price. In my childish paranoia, I sent away to for the government kit and got his agreement to at least prepare one basement room for our survival. Even Twilight Zone had a typically creepy episode on shelters,
Fast forward to the natural disasters of which you speak, Timothy, and the above quote. No, we aren't safe and may never be. Man does all he can to lower his odds, but they are still odds that favor Armageddon--eventually. Look at the Florida sinkhole that suddenly opened up, swallowing whole that consumed a man asleep in his bed.
So, yes, man tries to lower his odds. And citizens "hope that the government will do their part to strengthen infrastructure" as you say. Let's focus on that for a bit: because it's scary local, state, and national leaders are so myopically focused on abortion laws, voting requirements, and just about everything except the physical readiness to deal with the next natural disaster lurking round the corner.
Your column reminded me, in a strange way, of the Cold War 50s and 60s living under threat of nuclear war. No, not natural disasters threatening us in Bergen County, NJ, but another Nagasaki. I was so paranoid in grammar school and early high school that I twice asked my Dad to consider building a bomb shelter, which he wouldn't once he saw the price. In my childish paranoia, I sent away to for the government kit and got his agreement to at least prepare one basement room for our survival. Even Twilight Zone had a typically creepy episode on shelters,
Fast forward to the natural disasters of which you speak, Timothy, and the above quote. No, we aren't safe and may never be. Man does all he can to lower his odds, but they are still odds that favor Armageddon--eventually. Look at the Florida sinkhole that suddenly opened up, swallowing whole that consumed a man asleep in his bed.
So, yes, man tries to lower his odds. And citizens "hope that the government will do their part to strengthen infrastructure" as you say. Let's focus on that for a bit: because it's scary local, state, and national leaders are so myopically focused on abortion laws, voting requirements, and just about everything except the physical readiness to deal with the next natural disaster lurking round the corner.
63
Short term thinking: Enjoy life in a beautiful setting as much as you can for as long as it lasts.
Long term thinking: This is a lethal place. sooner or later, if not for me, then for my grandchildren.
Does it make sense to stay if, in so doing, it kills the future? Moving to higher ground would seem to be the more sensible option in the long term. Think ahead.
Long term thinking: This is a lethal place. sooner or later, if not for me, then for my grandchildren.
Does it make sense to stay if, in so doing, it kills the future? Moving to higher ground would seem to be the more sensible option in the long term. Think ahead.
5
Living in the path of the future forest fires that will surely engulf the Sangre de Cristos in NM, I sympathize. In fact, my two favorite spots in the U.S. are the Pacific NW and right here. The thought that springs to mind is that climate change is more certain than either a devastating fire here or a massive quake in the NW, and we are doing it to ourselves. We're not rolling the dice living near a mountain forest or on the seashore. We are knowingly creating disaster for ourselves, our children, and millions of people less able to withstand disaster than ourselves. Why?
79
"Why?" That question is very easily answered. It is simply so a few very rich folks (think Koch Bros, Shelly Adelson, Bush family et al) can acquire even greater riches. Throw in a batch of like minded folks in Europe, Asia, and the world at large to see that one does not have to be a cynic to think the future does not bode well.
5
I thought this was interesting article. A pity it has so few comments. It would be nice to have experts on the "ring of fire", volcanism, earthquakes commenting. I remember recently on Facebook a person (friend of a friend) posted a picture of the volcano Cotopaxi a month or so ago with what looked to me like an unusual cloud formation above; it looked to me like it might be sign of steam, volcanic activity or something and I wondered if certain volcanoes could be predicted as to activity by carefully watching clouds above (I suppose a naive thought because I am far from an expert)...then recently Ecuador reported the volcano shooting ash...This is not to say I predicted it--apparently it was predicted in advance by minor earthquakes, etc. Still I wonder how many methods there are of predicting activity in "ring of fire".
It seems to me if mathematicians and other experts can get a clear view through earth to depth they can study the horseshoe ring and calculate flex, movement, etc, although I suppose magma erupting from underneath would complicate calculations...Still it must be an extremely exciting science to try to get all the parameters and calculate exact movements. Makes me think of a cool science-fiction film idea like Verne would come up with: People entering the earth like entering an actual breathing body and calculating every movement and predicting shifts of movement. Science of knowing mother nature inside and out...
It seems to me if mathematicians and other experts can get a clear view through earth to depth they can study the horseshoe ring and calculate flex, movement, etc, although I suppose magma erupting from underneath would complicate calculations...Still it must be an extremely exciting science to try to get all the parameters and calculate exact movements. Makes me think of a cool science-fiction film idea like Verne would come up with: People entering the earth like entering an actual breathing body and calculating every movement and predicting shifts of movement. Science of knowing mother nature inside and out...
3
Volcanic eruptions can indeed usually (emphasis on usually) be predicted, but not based on clouds. As magma rises in the volcano, it swells the volcano, and that deformation can be measured. It also fractures the rocks, setting of swarms of small earthquakes.
All the volcanoes in the Northwest are in fact constantly monitored by US Geological Survey scientists who could tell if the volcano was coming to life (as they did in the case of Mt. St. Helens). What is difficult to predict is the exact time, the style, and the size of the eruption.
A geologist.
All the volcanoes in the Northwest are in fact constantly monitored by US Geological Survey scientists who could tell if the volcano was coming to life (as they did in the case of Mt. St. Helens). What is difficult to predict is the exact time, the style, and the size of the eruption.
A geologist.
I live a bit south of Seattle towards the location of one of the world's most-likely-to-catastrophically-erupt volcanos. To the south of the dangerous Mt. Rainier on clear days we can see the remains of Mt. St. Helens, which blew in 1980.
Time is God's way of keeping everything from happening at once. I wish I had said that. Forget who did.
I will venture this much: sooner or later everything that is physically possible to happen will happen. That includes the Yellowstone super volcano blowing the holy hell out of the whole NW corner of the country.
The good news is that humans are a lot better than you would think at surviving and starting over, given that most are so determinedly adverse to making even the most elementary of precautions and preparations.
Time is God's way of keeping everything from happening at once. I wish I had said that. Forget who did.
I will venture this much: sooner or later everything that is physically possible to happen will happen. That includes the Yellowstone super volcano blowing the holy hell out of the whole NW corner of the country.
The good news is that humans are a lot better than you would think at surviving and starting over, given that most are so determinedly adverse to making even the most elementary of precautions and preparations.
31
Recently while visiting my daughter in Portland, I mentioned the irony of our relative disaster prone choice of areas to reside. No tsunami will roll through Portland, but we can expect massive damage and casualties in the next hundred years. On the other hand, I choose to live in the immediate suburbs of the Great Yellowstone Caldera. If we multiply likelihood times severity, Yellowstone dwarfs even the very real concern over the Ring of Fire. I like to ponder these matters as I listen to the Trumpet spewing his micro-lava.
7
I lived in the Northwest in the early 80's, but never made it to Lake Chelan until this summer so I could visit my college-aged daughter who is working in Stehekin, 60 miles up the lake, accessible by ferry or seaplane only. Luckily I went in June. After returning on the ferry ride from Stehekin to Chelan I drove through Twisp and Winthrop as I made my way through North Cascades NP. I returned with my wife in July and saw the beginning of the Wolverine Wildfire on Lake Chelan. And a week later, an inferno started ravishing the countryside I am considering for retirement. I think back on the Yellowstone fires and Mt. St. Helen's eruption from the 80's and try to remember that the devastation was followed by rebirth as it has throughout history as Egan reminds us with beaches turning into cliffs and vice versa, providing stunning vistas in the NW. Unfortunately, the present threat to life and vegetation makes me eager to see my daughter return to college.
19
People used to live with a constant low-level danger that some epidemic or individual disease would carry them or a loved one away. This was the human condition from our hunter-gatherer days to the discovery of antibiotics about a century ago. Now this possibility is much diminished and we have become spoiled. We are not used to being fatalistic and we do not want to have to bow to fate once again.
Most of us have moved beyond seeing such acts of fate as earthquakes, as the Hand of God, who is trying to communicate some lesson to us whose exact meaning we can never agree on. But our lives, individually and collectively, are always subject to the possibility of a complete flip, in spite of our best efforts. If the Northwest goes, it is not likely to go again until well after it has been rebuilt.
Most of us have moved beyond seeing such acts of fate as earthquakes, as the Hand of God, who is trying to communicate some lesson to us whose exact meaning we can never agree on. But our lives, individually and collectively, are always subject to the possibility of a complete flip, in spite of our best efforts. If the Northwest goes, it is not likely to go again until well after it has been rebuilt.
15
Excellent context-setting.
1
We are seeing huge forest fires in the Northwest, on of the wettest places in the country, that today is going through a drought. There can be no doubt this is connected to climate change, despite the machinations of Senator Coburn and has core of medieval acolytes.
As for the earth dropping 20' on the Seattle Fault that is unlikely, most probably it will be a strike slip motion. A vertical fault movement off shore would cause the tsunami repeating the one a thousand years ago. It was noted in Japan at the time. As we saw with the Fukushima quake, even the best preparations were not good enough to stop the force of such an event. If you live on an island in Puget Sound, good luck. At least much of Seattle is elevated enough to survive a tsunami, but getting to high ground will be a nightmare.
As for the earth dropping 20' on the Seattle Fault that is unlikely, most probably it will be a strike slip motion. A vertical fault movement off shore would cause the tsunami repeating the one a thousand years ago. It was noted in Japan at the time. As we saw with the Fukushima quake, even the best preparations were not good enough to stop the force of such an event. If you live on an island in Puget Sound, good luck. At least much of Seattle is elevated enough to survive a tsunami, but getting to high ground will be a nightmare.
29
An engineer I met in California said that thousands of apartment and condos built during the state's real estate boom were constructed with inferior steel. Between this and high-rises in San Francisco going up on filled in parts of the Bay, I shudder.
12
We've had this written about here in the NYT before. What has troubled me is the sense that nothing can be done about deaths to a huge tsunami right after a quake. That is unacceptable, and not true.
There are significant areas that will be swamped by a tsunami, from which there is no possibility to get to higher ground. As things are today, everyone will be killed. That is tens of thousands of people.
That need not remain true. A tsunami will sweep away most things above ground, but not everything, and not things properly done underground. There is a long well-developed history of providing ahead of time for such a thing.
Many parts of our country are ready for a tornado, by having a storm shelter below ground.
Bomb shelters are commonly built to withstand far more force than a sudden flood. We can build tsunami shelters.
The biggest challenge besides keeping out flooding would be getting out if lots of stuff is dumped on top of a shelter, and air supply before they can get out. These are problems that bomb shelters deal with too. We know it is done, so it can be done.
There is a short but significant time after the earthquake, at least a quarter hour and maybe considerably more, before the tsunami. We can use that to save a lot of people.
There are significant areas that will be swamped by a tsunami, from which there is no possibility to get to higher ground. As things are today, everyone will be killed. That is tens of thousands of people.
That need not remain true. A tsunami will sweep away most things above ground, but not everything, and not things properly done underground. There is a long well-developed history of providing ahead of time for such a thing.
Many parts of our country are ready for a tornado, by having a storm shelter below ground.
Bomb shelters are commonly built to withstand far more force than a sudden flood. We can build tsunami shelters.
The biggest challenge besides keeping out flooding would be getting out if lots of stuff is dumped on top of a shelter, and air supply before they can get out. These are problems that bomb shelters deal with too. We know it is done, so it can be done.
There is a short but significant time after the earthquake, at least a quarter hour and maybe considerably more, before the tsunami. We can use that to save a lot of people.
54
I'm not quite so sanguine about our chances in a tsunami. Try going on YouTube and looking at some of the videos from the Japanese tsunami a couple of years ago. The only hope for people in low-lying areas is to get to higher ground. Given the short warning time, not many would be able to do this.
1
There's no doubt an earthquake would be a shattering event for many people, and for the economy of the Northwest.
But here in Eastern WA, in Stevens, one of the disaster counties, the skies have been darkened and the air pronounced "unhealthy for everyone" for a long time. Sure put a damper on the county fair when folks are having to return home to make sure their places aren't on fire or evacuated. Yet.
With all your precautions you will likely survive a 6 just fine. The 8 or 9 is another story, and I'm not at all sure we here in NE WA will be OK either.
But here in Eastern WA, in Stevens, one of the disaster counties, the skies have been darkened and the air pronounced "unhealthy for everyone" for a long time. Sure put a damper on the county fair when folks are having to return home to make sure their places aren't on fire or evacuated. Yet.
With all your precautions you will likely survive a 6 just fine. The 8 or 9 is another story, and I'm not at all sure we here in NE WA will be OK either.
19
Life IS risk.
And joy.
And joy.
46
I was in Tokyo on March 11, 2011 during the 9.0 Magnitude earthquake. It lasted nearly six terrifying minutes. There was no warning.
I have been near and through tornadoes which came with varying minutes of warning.
I have never been through a hurricane. But I have family who lived through days of warning from and after Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina.
I have family including siblings who live from Southern California all the way up to Portland Oregon. I have been to Yellowstone National Park, Mount Rainer and Mount Hood. I have been to Hawaii's Big Island.
From the Big Bang to now but for energetic fire we would not be here. Modern humans are about 180-200 thousand years old. It remains to be seen how mentally emotionally physically evolutionarily wise smart fit we humans are.