What the Hispanic Vote Says About Bernie Sanders’s Chances

Jul 09, 2015 · 27 comments
Omrider (nyc)
Bernie has just begun his entry into the national conversation.
To know Bernie is to love Bernie.
Give it time. All trends are looking great.
The only negatives are the naysayers in the media who don't understand trends.
Let's have this talk again is six months and see where the numbers are.
Impedimentus (Nuuk)
How many Hispanic and black voters has Mr. Cohn actually talked to? The charts and bar graphs, crayon colored maps and beltway "wisdom" is becoming tiresome. The author talks about "better explanations" and quotes past statistics with apparently little understanding of the power of emotions like trust and honesty. Included with the author's plethora of graphics are an abundance of hackneyed phrases and labels and very little examination of the present mood of the country. The author also needs to go farther back in history to understand the power of a popular movements in America.
Tom Wanamaker (Neenah, WI)
I support Bernie Sanders' platform and will vote for him in the primary, but there is NO WAY he can win a general election. Presidential elections swing on the lower-informed folks who turn out once every four years. He does not have the appeal to win over that type of voter.

The best he can hope to do is to play Ralph Nader to Hillary's Al Gore.
Alan Chaprack (The Fabulous Upper West Side)
Mr Cohn:

Tough crowd, huh??
SLB (Clemmons, NC)
The issues and policies that Bernie Sanders is running on transcend the 'liberal' designation that 'centrists' assign to anyone challenging the status quo. If you remove the 'liberal' label much of his platform is quite popular even among conservatives. Eventually the American people will wise up to the labels and say enough to being sold out by yet another apologist for a government now run by corporations and billionaires.
Lea (California)
The elite in this country and the media that support them may well have a big surprise coming from them with Bernie.
He understand class struggles far more than most candidates that we have seen in a very long time. He also has more sympathy for disadvantaged minorities than most, which is very mush a part of the class struggle. When he is ready to address those parts of the country, the elite are going to see just how badly they have underestimated Bernie.
Don Salmon (Asheville, NC)
More incisive "logical" analslyis from Mr. Cohn:

1. Sanders doesn't have sufficient enthusiasm among black voters.
2. Black voters aren't aware of Sanders.

Conclusion: Therefore Sanders can't win.

Let's see. This might work in terms of reconciling religion and science.

1. A half-century consensus among cosmologists indicates that the universe is approximately 13.7 billion years old.
2. A significant number of evangelical Christians believe the universe is 6000 years old.
3. Therefore, John's Pizza is going to offer extra cheese on Fridays this summer.

Voila, it works!

I'm looking forward to Mr. Cohn's essay on reconciling liberals and conservatives. Impeccable, unimpeachable logic!
Bee (Flyover, NY)
Journalists:
Always trying to put a candidate's supporters into a neat, little package.
Trying to make correlations where none exist.
Consistently wrong.
Steve (New York)
All this proves is that disadvantaged blacks and Hispanics are as likely to vote against their own best self-interests just like disadvantaged white voters. Apparently ignorance has no racial or ethnic. boundaries.
Lea (California)
That is not the case. The reality is that until Obama, the voting turnout among poor African Americans has usually been low. The reason for this is that there has been a strong sentiment that in a system that still fails to address inequality, voting is seen as futile.
Dyani (California)
The truth is that African American voting turnouts have been very low until Obama. It is has not been an issue of voting against their own best interests, but of feeling so disenchanted by the system that voting is seen as futile.
WFGersen (Etna, NH)
If the Congressional Progressive Caucus members throw their weight behind Bernie Sanders and explain their reasoning for their endorsement to their constituents, Bernie will make inroads. If Bernie is invited to speak to ANY Civil Rights organization to explain his ideas for financial reform he will make inroads. Bernie's message will resonate with disenfranchised Latinos and African Americans the same way it has resonated with disenfranchised 20-40 year olds. Give him some time. It was only a few months ago that he was speaking to dozens of voters in small NH gatherings… he's filling auditoriums now… Feel the Bern!
marta (alberta)
I am so feelin the Bern!
Go Bernie!!
Technic Ally (Toronto)
Could you run some numbers on how candidate Hillary will lose to a Republican because of the deeply based hatred and distrust toward the Clintons and their financial backers?
Bb (Michigan)
The media loves to "jump on the gray boat" and write what everyone else is saying. What the media doesn't seem to understand is that its early in the game. As time goes by Sanderss continues to increase in polls. The reason is because its soo early that people haven't heard of him yet but when they do, they like him more as a candidate. This will continue to happen ESPECIALLY when the debates come. Then Clinton will have no chance. I am a black voter that hadn't heard of him but when I did I liked him better & I HIGHLY suspect other black & hispanic voters will do the same. Don't worry, he will be great as president
Doug Broome (Vancouver)
Even the right-wing Cameron government is proposing an immediate raise in the minimum wage to $14.
So Bernie's $15 minimum wage is obviously socialist poppycock.
Dave S. (Somewhere In Florida)
Maybe if Bernie Sanders were given the same kind of media coverage as Donald Trump.....
An iconoclast (Oregon)
Or any of the other nuisance candidates. And will the Times stop throwing around the unqualified word socialist as if Sanders were advocating some sweeping economic program. The paper should be embarrassed.
drejconsulting (Asheville, NC)
Completely missing the point of Sanders' campaign.

The less educated and less liberal Democrats are a lot less threatened by Sanders' populism than "the elite." They are precisely the ones who believe they're working hard and not getting a fair shake.

The "elite" Democrats are as much threatened by Sanders as the "elite" Republicans.
Linda (Duluth, MN)
Read letter to editor of NYT from Bernie's University of Chicago roomate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/opinion/bernie-sanders-in-the-1960s-se...

I want Bernie in the WH to help me to fight for what I believe!

Bernie Sanders for President 2016!
Linda (Duluth, MN)
Please, report on the issues, e.g. Bernie´s 12 step agenda.

1.Rebuilding Our Crumbling Infrastructure
2.Reversing Climate Change
3.Creating Worker Co-ops
4.Growing the Trade Union Movement
5.Raising the Minimum Wage
6.Pay Equity for Women Workers
7.Trade Policies that Benefit American Workers
8.Making College Affordable for All
9.Taking on Wall Street
10.Health Care as a Right for All
11.Protecting the Most Vulnerable Americans
12.Real Tax Reform

(As said by Frederica Fellini suggested in comments on your previous Upshot post before comments quickly closed)

I am voting for Bernie Sanders for President based on how he addresses the issues that matter to me, my family and, if compared on issues, the majority of my fellow Americans.

Go, Bernie!
#feelthebern
upL8N8 (Detroit, MI)
You forgot his number one priority. To get money out of politics and level the playing field in order to elect politicians that actually represent their constituents.
Vince (New Jersey)
I agree that there should be coverage on those points, but that's not the point of the Upshot. The Upshot is a careful examination of polling data and statistics, that's all. In fact, Bernie Sanders would do well to read these articles so he knows precisely where his appeal is so far lacking.
pkbormes (Brookline, MA)
I agree with your point.
I hang out with many people with many people who are white, working class and non college educated.
Most are big Hillary supporters.
(An unhappy truth for white, liberal, college educated NY Times readers.)
c. (n.y.c.)
Thanks for speaking the truth. Mr. Sanders is not a messiah and he doesn't have all the answers. He does tap into excitement and passion, and that's great to have. I wonder if he will wind up as a staunch advocate for Mrs. Clinton. If he truly believes in this cause, I'm sure he will.
Richard Head (Mill Valley Ca)
The average black voter will not vote for any of the repubs now being considered. They may not turn out as much without Hilary but they will still vote dem.
pkbormes (Brookline, MA)
Hello? Nate Cohn is talking about the primaries, not the general election.