Jeb Bush’s Surprising Struggle With Moderates

Jun 16, 2015 · 51 comments
KB (Brewster,NY)
The republican party is looking for the candidate who can best appear to be moderate while preparing to be as conservative as possible if elected.

Perry is a joke; Huckabee is a clown; Christie better suited to a position at Weight Watchers if he escapes unscathed from his bridge politics in Jersey; Walker is frighteningly conservative for the general voters; Paul has some appeal to moderates; Rubio the same. But Bush seems to have that element republicans usually like, kind of like vanilla ice cream; boring after a while but reliably comforting when in doubt.

Their one consistent theme is to remove the social safety net for those of us who are not "monied".Whoever their nominee, the agenda will always be the same, by definition 'conservative". Conserve as much financial resources for the few by stripping away those ghastly " benefits " for the people. You know, the 47% who never worked a day in their lives but would like some health care and "social security" in old age, those troublemakers.
Bush is right there with them, regardless of what he says. Being "different" or even "better" than his brother is hardly comforting.
night mission (New Jersey)
The problem is not Jeb Bush, its the residue of the pervious Bush and the expectations of an increasing right wing party that expects to land the White House this election and intends to drag the country in a direction the majority does not favor.
Had Jeb been the second Bush elected, rather than the third running; maybe the whole nature of discussion would be different. Iraq has been a yoke around the neck of all national leaders but none more so than Bush the second. Jeb may be the best of a marginal bunch, but none of them has to run from his own name.
Woody Porter (NYC)
The cause of Bush's apparent implosion is that there was no "there" there in the first place. That he would announce that Paul Wolfowitz -- a primary advocate and tireless cheerleader for, arguably, the most disastrous foreign policy decision ever made -- displays a divorce from reality that is, quite simply, appalling. And the defense that he is interested in advise from "all quarters" displays a superficiality that is, again, astounding. Who but a fool would seek the (bad!) advise of a thoroughly discredited counselor?
James (St. Paul, MN.)
The only moderate in the 2016 race is the man who actually understands and represents the needs of all working Americans: Bernie Sanders.
Monroe (Chelsea, Ohio)
Jeb! didn't fumble the question on Iraq. He was for the the fiasco then and he is for it now. His advisers are the exact same chicken hawk cheerleaders who lied our way into that war and they are the exact same people who will happily march our forces right back into that never-ending mess the first chance they get.
Burroughs (Western Lands)
So "moderates" don't want "Jeb"
Tea Partiers don't want him.
Democrats don't want him.
Even his mother didn't want him to run.

All the signs are go, Jeb!
anne (Boston)
He's not doing well because "he's a victim of unfair expectations"? Right, sure.
brupic (nara/greensville)
my first thought was the people depicted as moderates in the republican would be on the extreme right wing in most, if not all, western democracies. some of them on the loony right.....
Lippity Ohmer (Virginia)
Jeb's problem is part of a larger problem: this false notion that the center is actually now to the right. As such, we have nothing but republicans who are far right and democrats who are centrists (and center-right in many cases).

In Jeb's mind, I'm sure he thinks he's a moderate; unfortunately, his idea of being a moderate is being a right-wing conservative republican.

And you say he's not doing well with moderates?

Go figure.
Joan White (san francisco ca)
Jeb Bush is NOT a moderate!!! He is a bible thumping, gun toting conservative, who will get Catholic bishops to campaign for him,promising them lots of money in the form of school vouchers. Although the far right hates him because he does not plan to deport 11 million immigrants, in almost everything else he agrees with them.
c. (n.y.c.)
Mr. Bush seems to think he can just stroll into office without dealing with those pesky things called voters. He's spent the last half a year cozying up with the Kochs of the world and flouting campaign finance laws.

Why does he have such contempt for Americans and our laws?
Lazlo (Tallahassee, FL)
Why has the media not made anything of the fact that Scott Walker, despite being anti-government, has been a government employee (albeit elected) since age 22, or for half of his life?
Grey (James Island, SC)
As crazy as the menagerie is who occupy the clown bus, Scott Walker is the scariest. And the fact that he has attracted support from many in the conservative base is scarier still. He so blithely tosses American workers aside while he attacks the intelligentsia who populate Wisconsin's excellent education system without an apparent care in the world, as if he doesn't begin to understand what he is doing. And he doesn't.
Ray (Md)
Bush simply has too many problems and is in a no-win situation. First, republican conservatives are skeptical that he is conservative enough. Second, real moderates, especially democrats and independents, believe that his moderation is a mere act and are leery of his family heritage. Wandering years, misguided youth... that sounds awfully familiar and look what it did to us last time. So what is to be his path to election? I just don't see it.
Maria (Garden City, NY)
He's said to be the smarter Bush. But so far he hasn't seemed so. He's been unprepared as well. And talking at length about the virtues of the I-watch and how it's going to make people healthy? Does this man have even a clue about life and finances for regular folks? It was the equivalent of his father's supermarket scanner moment (Bush Sr. didn't know what it was).
Unfortunately for him, he has all the characteristics of an entitled, sometimes clueless man.
DBA (Liberty, MO)
If Jeb thinks he's having trouble with so-called GOP "moderates" now, wait until he's nominated, if he is. He's going to have a terrible time with actual moderates and those who are registered as independents.
Socrates (Verona, N.J.)
Jeb Bush - one of the nation's most prolific vote suppressors - doesn't even support basic civil rights; how can one expect him to poll any better than any other radical candidate.

http://www.usccr.gov/pubs/vote2000/report/exesum.htm

Maybe America just doesn't want to be horribly Bushwhacked anymore.
M240B (D.C.)
Mr. Bush cannot tell us how he is different because he is not. He has the same ideas, the same advisors, and the same investors that the Bush corporation has always had. He isn't nearly conservative enough for the primaries and he cannot ask his brother, who is popular with the evangelicals, to stump for him because he has to run away from him to stand a chance in the north.
smath (Nj)
The Bushes, as patrician as they may be/may want to be seen, play as down and dirty as the worst elements of our politics.

HW - Willie Horton
W - Gay marriage

I think it speaks volumes that his logo is Jeb! with nary a mention of Bush. He can run all he wants but he cannot hide. He was the governor of Fla when the right wing activists on the Supreme Court appointed his brother to the Presidency.

I urge all those who want more people like Clarence Thomas, John Roberts and Samuel Alito on the court for decades to come to please rush and vote for him or any other Rs.
P.M. (Summerville, GA)
The strategy to defeat Jeb Bush in GOP primaries or a general election is very simple.

Opponents merely have to remind voters of Jeb Bush using the government to jump into the private business of the Terry Schiavo family.

Believe it or not, people, Jeb is worse than his brother George W.
Herman (Lyndeborough, NH)
As an independent New Hampshire voter I may vote in the Republican primary. An important consideration as to why Mister Bush will not get my vote is the case of Terri Schiavo. If he thinks that it is appropriate for a governor to get in the middle of family's medical decision, what part of our personal lives does he think a president should be involved in?
Blue State (here)
The Times and other outlets can spin all you like, but most of the sensible middle wants neither of the annointed candidates. Both backed by big money business interests with no loyalty to the US, Bush and Clinton have the same strength - lots of campaign cash - and the same weaknesses - lots of campaign cash, and lots of baggage.
Technic Ally (Toronto)
A Bush too far,
Is where we are.
The family's ebb,
Will be from Jeb,
A failing falling star.
seeing with open eyes (usa)
Jeb Bush's struggle with moderates isn't suprising at all.
He is a CONSERVATIVE republican and a Conservative Catholic. Hard to find a worse combination to help Americans in the 21st century.
Doctor B (White Plains, NY)
Jeb started off as the early GOP favorite, but his weaknesses are already glaring even before the official campaign has begun.
Romney began as the early 2012 favorite & survived primarily due to the extreme weakness of the rest of the field. This year's GOP clown car features a host of losers who cannot be taken seriously (Carson, Huckabee, Perry, Graham, Paul, Christie, & Rubio). But the backing of the Koch brothers' huge bankroll gives Scott Walker the best chance to stick around long enough to profit when voters decide we've had enough Bushes.
Expect Walker to become easy picking for any Democrat next year, as his shallowness & insincerity expose his fatal flaws.
pkbormes (Brookline, MA)
World traveled Hillary would make a joke of Walker in debates. Walker doesn't know the difference between fighting unions and fighting Islamic terrorism.
Dr. Jim (Greenville)
I thnk Bush is basically finished. He exudes an air of "I don't really want this, I'm only running because it is expected of me." He seems irritated by the failure of the party elite to hand the crown over to him and was totally surprised by - and unable to answer - question that your average 12-year old knew was coming.

His protestations that he is his own man with his own ideas is wholly contradicted by his inability to dispassionately critique his older brother's follies and the inexplicable hiring of W's old team of failed policy advisors.

Jeb has been a disappointment all the way around and should give consideration to announcing, rather than that he is running, that he is, instead, not.
AM (New Hampshire)
Jeb Bush is the "moderate" who thinks we shouldn't be talking with Iran in an effort to limit their nuclear weapons capabilities, and that we shouldn't normalize relations with Cuba.

He's really just one more extremist in the GOP candidate parade.
Rob (Mukilteo WA)
I'm not going to vote for the GOP nominee,no matter who that is.So as an "outside (of the GOP ) I get the impression that JB is distracted as someone who's heart isn't genuinely into running,that he's doing so only because as a Bush he's expected to,in this instance in order to repair the damage done to the name by his brother.His gaffes,such as with his 4 answers regarding Iraq in 4 days,are those someone who,as he speaks,is day dreaming about how nice it would if he was still retired in Florida.
Anna Gaw (Iowa City, IA)
There is just no way that America will elect a third member of one family to president. It reeks of aristocracy whether you are liberal or conservative. No amount of money can scrub the Bush stain away.
Tom (Weiss)
A moderate Republican? I'm a "old school" moderate and I can tell you there are no moderates in the Republican party.
EuroAm (Ohio, USA)
Dubya poisoned the well for Jeb who has been oversold from the get-go...the 'Great Expectation' that fails to inspire.
sleeve (West Chester PA)
Does it concern anyone else that the GOP very openly acknowledges that the plutocrats pick their candidates? It is now an openly discussed topic, the "invisible primary". What is wrong with Republicans that they let a few rich angry white men make the call as to which candidate will be handed their head by Secretary Clinton?
Jonathan (NYC)
If the primary voters don't go along, it won't make any difference who raises the most funds. You can have ten billion dollars and still get 1% of the vote - just ask John Connally.
Burroughs (Western Lands)
Still don't get the "Rubio has charisma" meme. Since this is the Upshot, I wonder if there's any poll data to support it. I suspect that most Americans, if they have any idea about him at all, recall a guy reaching for a glass of water. Charismatic? No, nervous.
Jonathan (NYC)
Cruz and Paul are the guys with charisma. They really stand for something. You may think what they stand for is wrong, but they're not relying on pollsters to find out what they believe.
Martin (Apopka)
I think many Americans simply do not want another Bush in the White House. It's assumed that he's the "smarter brother", but when he hires the same advisors who were in his brother's administration--there's a really good chance that you'll get the same disastrous decisions that haunt our country today.
Jimmy (Greenville, North Carolina)
I struggle with the fact that we even have another Clinton or Bush in the race. As Brad Pitt said in the movie after he had killed the giant, "Is there no one else?"
DR (New England)
Yes, there's Bernie Sanders.
Thoughtful Woman (Oregon)
In the battle for hearts and minds that has divided America in recent years, Scott Walker has done well for himself by going after public sector unions.

These are painted as filled with lazy, incompetent employees, who--because of "liberals"--have managed to procure themselves pensions and benefits at the expense of state taxpayers who toil in the trenches with no such perks.

The mindset is: "If I can't have a decent salary, job stability, secure health coverage and a chance eventually to retire--then neither can you." Resentment is a strong motivator and conservatives are great at stirring resentment over such bogeys as those Eastern elites, Jewish bankers, welfare queens and folks with a homosexual agenda.

In such a climate, unions need to turn the tables. They need to remind Americans that unions fought for a living wage, for a safe workplace, for job stability, to shorten the work week and work day to what is humanly possible, for policies that support workers damaged in the workplace, and to create a future cushion towards retirement when a hard working union member is worn out and nearing the end of life.

If unions can't make themselves relevant in today's economy where the Big Boss extorts a heavy workload out of an increasing number of precariously-positioned part-time and contract workers, then the unions deserve to lose.

Those who sing "I'm sticking with the union" have a fairer, more just story to tell. Don't let those who stick it to the union win this.
johnw (pa)
Thank you.

Unions are a principal reason ALL our citizens have enjoyed the American middle-class life.

Our exceptional American way of life has been dismantled as part of the Republican agenda over the last 20 years. As the “new world order” as noted by President Bush is institutionalized, our USA standards of excellence for our citizens is being dismantled. And we ALL see where the benefits flow.
Doug (San Francisco)
The mindset is: "If I can't have a decent salary, job stability, secure health coverage and a chance eventually to retire--then neither can you."

Your statement is simply not correct. The "mindset" of anyone who's been paying attention the last decade or so is that public unions and public officials have an incestuous relationship that fleeces the taxpayer. The manager sitting across the table from that union rep is not bargaining with his own money. He won't go out of business if he gives too much away. Just raise taxes!

Well, we're tired of riding that merry-go-round.
Les (Bethesda, MD)
All well and good - but where is the resentment against the plutocrats pulling these politician's strings?
olivia james (Boston)
Jeb's failure to avoid the obvious pitfalls of seeiming entitled or essentially different than his brother have puzzled me. the way he blatantly did not announce in order top up his pacs, tapped into the family funders, and did nothing to counter the appearance of believing he could simply buy the nomination, combined with his embrace of his brothers neocon advisors undercutting any claim that he really wasn"his own man", show that he is either very arrogant, or rather dim.
Jonathan (NYC)
If you've been that way all your life, and everyone you know is like you, then it's hard to change, isn't it?

Both Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton have lived in a cocoon for the past 15 years; events have passed them by.
Wild Flounder (Fish Store)
What is a moderate Republican, anyway? It has nothing to do with views. Today's "moderates" are far more to the right than Ronald Reagan ever was.

A "moderate" Republican is someone you can dress up in a suit and present to corporate leaders. He/she will understand the demands of corporate leaders and be able to advocate low taxes and deregulation without spouting crazy religious stuff (they gotta have religion, but it must be a "quiet faith"). This sort of person is considered electable because (1) he/she will get big money and (2) this is the sort of person who might flip a blue state or two.

Huckabee, Santorum, Perry, and Cruz are too outwardly religious. Carson and Fiorina are too amateur. Nobody cares about Lindsey Graham. Rand Paul is a weird wild card. That leaves Bush, Christie, Walker, and Rubio. Christie's baggage includes a bridge. Rubio charms people but may be too much of a lightweight. Bush has been bumbling whereas Walker is a union-busting dynamo with a track record of flipping a liberal state. That is why the Koch brothers seem to have chosen Walker. He is the perfect puppet for them.
GreenTara (New Haven)
Your overview of the field is brilliant!
Lucinda Piersol (Manhattan)
I think Nate Cohn's analyses are quite good especially in paying attention to big data. Didn't he write very well on the demise of unions? Yet Wild Flounder did a very good "grass roots" bit of thinking. What really impressed me was the statement about certain candidates being "too outwardly religious." Of course this would imply support for creationism, and on womens' issues - lack of support for the medical status quo in the reproductive area, and finally a very religious overview dampens the will to understand complex issues - in economics, for instance. So I hope Flounder is right.
craig geary (redlands, fl)
Jeb's first play on the national stage was to take $75K from Miguel Recarey, of IMC, to intercede with Margaret Heckler, Secretary of HHS, while daddy was Vice President, to allow Recarey's defrauding of Medicare/Medicaid to continue. 30 years later Recarey is, still, a fugitive from justice.
Next, he corrupted the 2000 election, wrongly disenfranchising tens of thousands of legitimate Florida voters and interfered with the counting of ballots. Which allowed family retainers on the Supremes to appoint his supremely unqualified brother as President, a Viet Nam dodging coward who grew up to be a war criminal.
Then he signed the Stand Your Ground law.
Then he tied the brain dead shell of Terri Schiavo atop his campaign bus.
GS (Berlin)
With such a resumé, it is all the more surprising that he does not enjoy unanimous support from G.O.P primary voters.
Avi Wangler (Miami Florida)
I will put it like it is he is a Bush. Americans know a Bush means pro domestic spying, pro war, pro unemployment, pro free trade, pro weak dollar, pro loss of home and pro poverty. Americans of all stripes simply won't vote for a Bush over a Clinton. Paul will get write in's or a third party will split 23-18% of the vote and many won't vote. One thing is for certain people will come out in droves to vote against a Bush.