The Case for Buying a Powerball Ticket

Feb 12, 2015 · 218 comments
Chris D. (Dallas)
To buy a lottery ticket simply contributes to the already enormous amount of money. People like to imagine that they actually have a chance of winning and this exposes the human gullibility. Many people make money off the lottery and each ticket bought simply contributes to it. The statistics don't even seem to faze the general public but instead increase ticket sales due to the absurd amount of money.
SteveO (Connecticut)
I like to think I've taken the fantasy aspect of purchasing lottery tickets to the next level. Sure, I enjoy imagining how I'd live my life with my new found millions. But I don't actually buy a ticket, I simply fantasize about that as well.
When the the prize is announced, my dreams of wealth fade, but my imaginary purchase has put two dollars in my pocket. I WON!
I admit I didn't win much, but still, I WON! I didn't waste two bucks, nor ten, nor twenty. I can treat myself to some small thing. By not buying a lottery ticket, I WON!
MLChadwick (<br/>)
Buying a ticket gave me pleasant fantasies about retirement security, money security for family, charitable contributions, fixing up our home, and visiting favorite places.

I wonder about the folks whose fantasies start and end with how they'd avoid taxes and invest their 1+ billion to make scads more money.

They and current 1%ers are like OCD squirrels, hiding nut after nut after nut, more than thousands of squirrels could eat in a lifetime. Never looking up to see the sun and sky.Never feeling the wind in their fur.

Just hiding nut after nut after nut...
Eric (Rochester, NY)
Absolutely right. To suggest one should invest their money better rather than spend it on lottery tickets is like saying people should go to the gym instead of drinking beer. It is "wisdom" that is both obvious to pretty much everyone and also misses the point. While we're on the topic, I personally like to compare playing the lottery to other vices, like alcohol, ice cream, or cigarettes. While they are all a fun way to blow five or ten bucks, at least playing the lottery doesn't harm my body.
R. Law (Texas)
Irwin points out that there are all sorts of ' aspirational ' models in our society - some people choose to divert a minute portion of their ' consumption budget ' to activities which might provide a large pay-out, if there is the equivalent of a lightning strike - after all, most everyone knows they're not going to be POTUS, not going to be big-time sports stars, and not going to be killed by an asteroid strike, which are all things many times more likely than selecting a winning ticket.

As long as one doesn't go overboard, it's as harmless as Quicken Loan's prize of $1 billion for the perfect March Madness bracket:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/warren-buffett-billion-bracket-ncaa-tour...

On the other hand, perhaps this is all just diversion, and a symptom of Americans seeing the American dream slip away from their kids' grasp.
Alan (Holland pa)
Of course, the odds work against you. Except in the case when the cash payout is greater than $584,000,000. In that case (odds of 292,000,000 to 1 to win with each chance costing $2), if you could afford to buy all 292 million combinations, the risk is based solely on how many other winners there are. With the current cash payout at around 1 billion dollars, it actually seems like a reasonable bet (with it being a good bet should there 2 or less winners).
But the most important reason for playing the powerball is that there are very few opportunities in which most people can ever play ANY odds to receive a payout that large. $2 for a chance, even minuscule at it is, to change your family's financial situation for generations, seems like a reasonable risk to me. Think of it another way. If winning the powerball guaranteed you the ability to live for a thousand years, which statistician or financial wizard would call it a fools bet, even at higher odds? It is the opportunity for such profound change that makes participating a no-brainer for most of us.
Ron (An American in Saudi)
Mmmm. Not exactly. The $2 Powerball ticket purchase could be viewed in one of several ways:

1) Discretionary spending: You can spend $2 any way you damn well please (which is what Mr. Irwin should have said right up front, perhaps. But then he wouldn't have been able to fill column inches), since it's YOUR money, no one else's. The illogic / logic of the decision is also yours to keep and enjoy.

2) Comparative spending (similar, but not identical, to the above): Do I buy a $5 Starbucks Eggnog Latte (which will then be processed in a few hours into water and cardboard waste, after giving me a much-needed Monday morning addictive lift so I can face my decidedly non-obscene-wealth-creation daily strategy (e.g., my job), or do I spend 2/5 of that on a dream with no relatively-immediate payoff? Or maybe I toss it in the starving musician's guitar case in the subway, or give it to the charity of my choice...Or do I just buy the damn ticket today, and defer my caffeine-and-social addiction until tomorrow, and promise myself that I will fund the musician's next tour, while funding a local soup kitchen in perpetuity if I win? Relativistic choices all.

3) An element of a probability distribution function applied to a lifetime investment strategy, that has a minuscule chance of success, but incredibly high reward. In other words, gambling for fun, because I can afford to lose, and yet still afford my overpriced-and-marketed Eggnog Latte' with the alkaloid buzz?
Ben (Georgia)
"As long as one thinks about the purchase of lottery tickets the right way — again, purely a consumption good, not an investment..."

"...each lottery ticket has a higher present value now than any other time"

So...are you thinking of it as an investment or aren't you?
Brian - Seattle (Seattle)
For me there is no case for it - I don't want to support a system that is an implicit tax on poor people.

If you want to gamble, fine, go to a casino. If you want to support your public school system do it through taxes - not a game that depends on the "have-nots" getting caught up in the temporary excitement that they might be part of the haves tomorrow so we can fund essential services they need.

Yeah, I know it's "voluntary" but since when is funding education based on a choice? Better if we got rid of them all.
Altruist Dreamer (Oregon)
I seldom ever hear anyone espouse another valid reason for playing this game: for $2, I can help make it happen that SOMEONE, SOMEWHERE comes into sudden wealth. It's highly unlikely that it will ever be me, but very likely that it will indeed happen to someone, and only because each of us millions of people participated.I only hope they enjoy the heck out of it.
j (NYC)
Can you revise for the steeper odds ?
ebmem (Memphis, TN)
The expected pay for a $2 ticket when the pot was $900 million was $2.40.
Brendan (New Jersey)
I chip in to the office Powerball pool. I don't do it thinking we'll win. I do it because I don't want everyone else here to win without me.
wts (Colorado)
I don't usually buy lottery tickets. However, it's a lot of fun to buy one for a group gathering for dinner and dream together how to use the money. Recently in a Bible study we shared one and discussed what kid of philanthropic giving we could do with some of the money.

Nine bucks buys a few hours of mindless escapism in a movie ticket. A lottery ticket serves the same purpose for only $2. In my state 50% of the cost is a small donation to outdoor parks and wilderness areas, which I am okay with.
Ed (Old Field, NY)
No, I don’t need that much money.
M. B. E. (California)
The lottery is our version of a Cargo Cult.
Saltwater (Durham, NC)
First half of the article: great. But the thinking in the second half drives me nuts.

If the chance of your $2 ticket winning is 1 in 175 million, the idea that it suddenly becomes a good idea when the jackpot reaches $2*175M is crazy. You were going to have an astronomically low chance of winning an astronomical amount of money before; you still do. Put another way, you're effectively making the statement: "I wouldn't spend $2 for a tiny chance at $200 million; that's chump change. But of course I would spend $2 for the same tiny chance at $400 million!"
S Franklin (Vineland, NJ)
All it takes is one ticket!
greenie (Vermont)
Yep, I had already decided to find a store to buy one in and go for it. I don't buy lottery tickets, but for this drawing, why not......and as you say, daydreaming about what I would do with the winnings is a lot of fun. Interestingly, my desires involve helping my young adult son, but mostly being able to set up or contribute to charitable endeavors that I care about. One ticket will do me.....

And thinking about where I would live if I won or what I would do tells me a lot about where I need to head to. Will I live differently without being a millionaire, should I not win? Of course. But I can make some elements of my daydreams come true, even without a winning ticket..
PhntsticPeg (NYC Tristate)
Another aspect of the positive effect of the lottery ticket is if you have a pool at work. I have seen folks bond more over the idea that they can all "take this job and shove it" collectively than over any other team building exercise.

Many years ago I was in an office pool as a temp. For $2 we got all the numbers except one, and we were off by a digit (ah why couldn't 25 be 26).

44 Million that never came our way. However I did get a little more than $200 for my investment. I was happy to have a nice little windfall as I was struggling to finish school.

If it makes you happy for a quick minute and not too harmful, why not?
Nate Levin (metro NYC)
Yes, it can be fun imagining what to do with a huge windfall...but has Mr. Irwin considered the drudgery involved in keeping track of the ticket and figuring out if you've won something? The figuring-out, at least for a non-player like me, seems like it could entail some tedious stuff.
ebmem (Memphis, TN)
Just put the ticket in a drawer and don't go to the trouble of checking until it is reported in the news that the winning ticket was won in your state and hasn't been claimed. You have 180 days.
M.L. Chadwick (Maine)
I can enjoy a delightful fantasy for free. No $2 expenditure on a Powerball ticket is required...
Irene (New Jersey)
While it's interesting that "you are throwing away less in strictly economic terms when you buy into an unusually large Powerball jackpot", the key thing to note is that you're still throwing away money. Even though $2 or less seems like a small amount of money, it's important to remember that money adds up quickly, especially when concerning something as addictive as the lottery. And while this article points out that just the daydreaming process of what one would do with such a large sum of money can be fun, I believe that it'd be better to use that time and the money spent on lottery tickets to invest in something more worth your while. The odds are just not in your favor if the chances of winning are about 1 in 175 million.
Clara anderson (tulsa)
Even though in my head, I know that winning the lottery is out of the question, it's still something that I enjoy thinking about. My dad buys lottery tickets often, and we used to drive around in the car fantasizing about all the things we would do with the money if we one. We knew we would probably never be rich, but we bonded over the hope of it. I think the two dollars was worth it just to be able to imagine yourself in a life that you aren't living. people spend eight dollars to go see a movie which basically is the same thing. it takes you away from your life for a while. I would spend two dollars on a ticket because the amount of money at stake seems worth it, despite the odds.
Benjamin (Fields)
The future is a very odd and amazing thing. Buying a power ball ticket is in my mind a great choice because I would've ended up spending my money on some cookies that aren't even healthy for me. Another thing is that even high the odds are 1 in 175 million, WHAT IF I was that person. What if I was the only person who signed up and could win by default just because no one signed up because of the minuscule odds... That's an AMAZING proposition! I could by the house my mom deserves, or I could travel for the rest of my life. I could start a video game company, or build a castle. The possibilities are endless, and the price of that lottery ticket cannot compare to a wonderful fantasy that the imagination can cook up for a person.
Kendall Boudreau (Ok)
I would enjoy living life as a multi-millionaire, but I would say I would probably not buy a ticket. If the chance in winning is 1 in 175 million, that is very slim and unlikely for me to win. say through my life I bought 5 lottery tickets every year for a game. I would have a 5 in 175 million chance of willing. If I lived to 90 and started this process at 18, I would have lost $720. With this money I could have invested it into some much more likely to give me a less, but more realistic output.
Jace Holt (Tulsa, Oklahoma)
As a 17 year old I often fantasize about my future and usually it is me with a bunch of money to spend on things I don't. And I would like to say that I would buy a lottery ticket when the jackppot is at record breaking highs like it is now. Knowing i have a very slim chance of winning i would still do it because there isnt much to lose if i dont get the jackpot. And for a price of $2 a ticket? i would probably buy one...if i was 18...
Jillian (Tulsa)
Even though the likelihood of winning the powerball is small, it still gives some people hope.
Zach Harrell (Tulsa, OK)
Since I have recently turned 18 the first thing I thought of was buying a lottery ticket since the jackpot was 500 million dollars. This article lets me know the chances I win are small, but growing up dreaming about being a millionaire, 2 dollars is worth it. There is probably an elaborate formula or probably one in the making to win all the lotteries, but not likely since all the numbers are based on luck. Reading this lets me know there is nothing more important than hardcore math, and the math states that I will probably not win. But if I do? I win big...very big, so if there ever is a formula to win the lottery, I'll be the person first in line to win the lottery.
Ponderer (Mexico City)
The "daydream" factor is precisely why I can relate to buying a single $2 Powerball ticket, preferably a couple of days ahead of the drawing.

For the same reason, I do not see any pleasure in pumping money into a slot machine at Vegas. There is no time to daydream, and those gamblers get caught in a viciously limitless downward spiral of outlays.
ebmem (Memphis, TN)
The state keeps at least 50% of each lottery ticket, and the casinos pay out 95% on the slot machines. Your expected pay is higher at a casino, except when the lottery pool has gotten very big.
Khanh (Los Angeles)
My wife dreamed of poop. In Korea, this is considered a money dream. So we bought a ticket yesterday!
pdxtran (Minneapolis)
I play for fun, and I've won as much as $250, but I prefer games that are unique to my state, and I buy only one draw at a time. When I lived in Oregon, where tickets are sold by machine, I once saw a man buy $100 worth of Powerball tickets, as if that would guarantee a win. All he had done was increase his chances from 1 in 175 million to 1 in 1.75 million. "The lottery is a tax for people who don't know math" is a facile cliché, but this fellow was really math challenged.
Trent Condellone (Springfield, MO)
$1 a week on the state lotto buys hope that one can get medical services in my state. Well worth the $1. Trying to get surgery, uninsured, here is worse than lotto.
sailor25 (NYC)
The lottery is a tax on those who are bad at math.
Kevin (Texas)
By the way incase anyone did not know this, lotteries are a tax on the poor.
Kevin (Texas)
Every time I by a lottery ticket I can hear god laughing at me. So I stopped buying lottery tickets and give the money to charity instead, now god smiles at me :)
Alex p (It)
"It's more like around $340 million in cash value terms; the larger number is if the prize is taken as an annual payment"

The larger
number is
if the prize is taken as annual payment.
Something says me it doesn't work the way you wrote it, i guess it is the Latin form ( verb at the end of the first sentence ) mixed with the hypothetical after the principal one.
Or maybe something is missing after "is", in the editing process, like "cashed", as to not remain with a truncated sentence in the middle of a period.
Or maybe it was my personal grammar taste.
DSolomon (Troy, NY)
For me it's simple - there just isn't any other likely path for me to end up with upwards of $200M in my pocket after taxes. It's a lousy bet, but all the other bets where I end up with that kind of money aren't even available to me. So for a couple of bucks, I'll throw my hat in the ring.
b. (usa)
Lottery ticket money comes out of the entertainment budget - no fuss, no moralizing - just entertainment.
Sekhar Sundaram (San Diego)
It is interesting to read the comments and realize how odd we humans are.

1. The Pontificators: These are the virtuous who hate lotteries bcos they promise a big reward for no work. They blab about how suckers buy lottery tickets and so on. Do you really know someone who went bankrupt buying lottery tickets? Or are you just being judgmental of some poor person who cannot spend $5 on Starbucks lattes getting a cheap thrill for 5 bucks a week?

2. The Envious: Uncle Sam will get 40% of your money! Firstly, that money was say a million times what the person paid for it. Secondly, Uncle Sam is a fictional icon, the IRS collects that money on behalf of the taxpayers to pay for our government - which includes national defense, veterans affairs, trade (e.g., patent enforcement, anti-piracy, etc), NASA, FCC, FAA, etc... So why this irrational hatred for raising revenue to pay for the services provided?

3. Credit Cards: Speaking of IRS, every $100 you transact with your credit card, you bank takes $3-$4 from the seller, plus charges that person for the card-reader, connectivity and so on. How come you do not rage on that? You want privileges, you pays for it, right? Same with our "Freedoms", they do not come from China at $4.99 a pop like the bumper stickers touting them.

Lotteries are supposedly a way of collecting revenue for education. That is because we have a fragmented educational system, where local control keeps the rich richer and poor poorer. Any solutions for that?
Judith (California)
A cheap, short-term anti-depressant.
The fantasies are worth $2
Gerry O'Brien (Ottawa, Canada)
The reality of one person winning $500 million or a half-billion-dollar Powerball grand prize borders on the insane.

It would make much more sense to have 500 prizes worth $1 million each or 100 prizes worth $5 million each. Increasing the number of prizes would make many more people happy and would spread the joy, happiness and the wealth to many more people and families.

If there were many more smaller but reasonable prizes there would be many more people willing to pay $2 for a ticket. Also the odds of winning would increase. And I bet that the pot would increase as a result.

Lotteries are using a misguided business plan.

What do you think ???
Country Squiress (Hudson Valley)
@Gerry O'Brien. As my first and most expensive purchase from lottery winnings would be my DREAM HOME and I reside--and wish to remain residing--in an area where one million dollars will not purchase a one bedroom apartment that I would not even consider living in, I would not buy a lottery ticket that had a before tax value of one million to five million dollars. A lottery win is a fantasy; and who wants a low budget fantasy?
Tibby Elgato (West County, Ca)
If your goal is to become a multi-millionaire, there is another way to analyze the lottery. Most of the very rich in the US inherited their money, they did not earn it themselves. Yes, some did earn it - Gates, Buffet, Ellison, but most did not - Trump, the Jobs widow, the Waltons, the Kochs, the Rockefellers. Look it up if you don't believe this. The number of people actually earning millions is small enough so that your chances of becoming a multi-millionaire though hard work, etc. etc. is comparable to (but still smaller than) the chances of winning the lottery. No need to bore the reader with the calculation. So if your goal is to become a super rich Aristocrat, with all the freedom from financial worry, extra rights and privileges that entails, trade off just lazing around buying lottery tickets to suffering mind numbing employment - there is less difference than you might think.
aj (ny)
"...your chances of becoming a multi-millionaire though hard work, etc. etc. is comparable to (but still smaller than) the chances of winning the lottery"

Not just comparable to, but "is" actually a form of a lottery. Put another way, hard work is definitely required to earn millions. But in addition, there is a very, very significant probabilistic aspect.

The hard work buys the tickets.
Eileen (Seattle)
Gates comes from money. His parents were (are in his father's case) prominent businesspeople in Seattle on the board of University of Washington Regents and many nonprofits. Apparently IBM bought Microsoft with the help of Mrs. Gates's connections with them. Additionally, Bill was able to start his own company because his parents approved and had a safety net for him.
(That said, I am an admirer.)
Elizabeth (Northwest, New Jersey)
My spouse and I see the occasional purchase as a form of entertainment. Certainly the author is correct that these are not "investments" in a financial sense--they are a consumption purchase.

Frankly, I get more entertainment out of this $2-$3 purchase than any other of similar price--and lots more than in going to the movies!
Global Citizen (USA)
My Dad is one of those rational types who would never buy a lottery ticket. So when I found a lottery ticket in his briefcase, I asked him to explain. He said that if God wanted to give me lots of money, I can't expect him to show with a bag full of cash, I must do my part to offer him the opportunity to do so. I am just doing my part, so that he can do his. Very rational !!
Sam (Memphis)
I'm reminded that a wise man once said, "Someone will win the Lottery Jackpot. It won't be you."
SW (NYC)
As a party game, my boss at an old job included $1 scratch off tickets in everyone's Christmas card. We all had fun scratching, and cheered when a co-worker won $10. I think my boss thought she got her $20 worth of party icebreakers.
Hope Heyman (New York)
My sentiments exactly. I have lots of fun figuring out how I will invest the money to establish a dynasty of sorts -- and set up a foundation to give jobs to my descendants for many years to come.
casher2 (USA)
The author neglects one critical factor, the fairness of the payout. The typical risk vs reward ratio of state lotteries is tantamount to theft.
casher2 (USA)
My state has a 3 number $1 draw with one chance in 1000 of winning. It pays $500. That's a 50% payout. The same state outlawed poker machines that paid out from 95% to 98% in order to 'protect' the poor who can't afford to gamble.
While they justify their lottery by calling it the 'Education Lottery' with most funds supporting education, they neglect to mention that the funds that used to go toward education have been moved to cover other state expenses.
A Las Vegas Casino that paid on a 50% margin would be shut down by the authorities as unfair and illegal. Operators could face criminal charges.
Herman (Lyndeborough, NH)
There is an absolute way to win. Have your own lottery. Every day for one year put the $2 in a can. At the end of the year pull out the $730 and declare yourself the winner. And, you don't even have to pay taxes on the winnings. There are a lot of nice things you can buy or do with $730.
BG (Houston)
Three things come to mind:

1) the moral hazard of encouraging something for nothing (or, almost nothing).
2) the fact that many who win big end up worse off (my favorite example is Billy Bob from Porter Texas, who won millions in the Texas lottery and within a few years killed himself after his wife left him.
3) it is a regressive tax, as those who can least afford it spend a larger share of their income.
Roger (Cincinnati)
I get the sense from your piece that the math dictates its all rainbows and unicorns once the jackpot reaches, say $400MM. Actually, this is not the case. The problem is the number of tickets sold which almost guarantee multiple winners. This has a huge impact on even the simplest expected value calculations. There is a peak jackpot from an expected value point of view, once that is surpassed expected value goes downhill in a hurry.
Whoey Louie (NJ)
It's a shame the way this lottery is structured. IMO, when the prize rises above a certain amount, it would be much better to start pulling multiple winners, instead of allowing for the possibility of one player taking $500 mil. Have 50 prizes of $10 mil. Surely $10 mil is enough to change people's lives forever. I'd be more likely to buy a ticket if I knew I had 50 chances to win $10 mil, then one chance to win $500 mil. But then I guess maybe shiny objects attract more people......
Pete (Germantown, MD)
>It is fun to imagine one’s future after arriving at vast wealth.

Not if you've looked at the resulting lives of other big lottery winners.
dw659 (Chicago)
That actually isn't a good logical analysis. The reason that there have been so many disaster stories about lottery winners is not due simply to the result of winning lotto itself. It is due to the profile of the 'common player'. Most lotteries are in fact won by repeat players who purchase a large number of tickets. These people are often poor, have lower education levels, and live in depressed and crime ridden neighborhoods. Giving THOSE PARTICULAR PEOPLE a huge influx of cash is a dangerous thing, and leads to bad results far too often (though still nowhere near a 'majority' of the time...). In these 'extreme prize' incidents, the profile of the 'average player' changes pretty dramatically, and it is more often a middle class, more highly educated person who wins. That is why you often don't even find out the person's name for several days, as they are usually bright enough to get a team of lawyers and accountants involved early in the process. With people of that profile, the disaster stories post-winning are pretty rare...
Shelley (Fort Worth, TX)
I agree with the author, and allow myself the fun of dreaming about what I would do with my life if I won, a few times per year. I can afford a ticket once in a while, and view it as entertainment.
You may have a better chance of dying in a plane crash than winning the lottery, but hey, it IS fun to dream. :) And you can't win if you don't play.
jonathan (philadelphia)
The lottery provides hope, as false as it is, to millions of people who can't find any hope elsewhere. They slog through life's daily problems and the lottery affords them a fantasy that helps them cope. Let them enjoy it...win or lose
Albert Lewis (Western Massachusetts)
I don't understand why so many commenters object to paying taxes on millions they'd receive for free. If I won $500 million, giving half or more to the government would leave me with $250+ million, more or less.

I'm going to complain at that point? Uh, no.
Momjeanz (Columbus)
But have you ever been behind someone in line at a gas station that was buying lotto tickets and thought, "that person looks bright", or "I wish that was me"? I didn't think so. It's stupid, shortsighted, and desperate (for many, not all). I don't know why anyone has an issue with that either.
Dave Marchant (Illinois)
"Fantasizing about what you would do if you suddenly encountered great wealth is fun..."

Well, yes it is! But it also has the side effect of focusing us in on everything we do not have. This can easily and insidiously become an obsession. This is emotionally and spiritually unhealthy. It is an unhealthy obsessive greed that drives the lottery's success.....not the benign fun of fantasizing.
Momjeanz (Columbus)
I agree. I'm inclined to let em live, so to speak, when you read that there are those who are mired in life's lower rungs where the lotto is a way to sorta escape it for a while. To dream about what could be. But you're right. I'm not what anyone would consider poverty-stricken, but I have very little extra money to my name when expenses are paid. It's stressful living like that. But I find an "escape" in realizing that there are so many less fortunate people out there- whether it be in finances, health, marriage, families- and that I can be grateful for the few things I do have, for the people in my life, for my health. Playing the lottery is just greasing a wheel that's already lubricated enough.
Neil (Brooklyn)
I happened to have my seven-year-old son with me the last time I checked my Powerball ticket. We won four dollars- and he was ecstatic. "We won the lottery, Daddy! WE WON THE LOTTERY!" I would have paid eight dollars for that moment.
Johan Andersen (Gilford, NH)
The French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal figured it out centuries ago. If you have tne opportunity to bet virtually nothing to get a chance to win virtually everything, then you are mathematically compelled to make the bet, no matter how astronomical the odds against you. Of course he was talking about wagering the cost of living the Christian life against the jackpot of eternity in Paradise, but the math is the same.
RAC (auburn me)
You are completely leaving out the security issues one would face after acquiring all that money -- no more anonymity and freedom, always worrying about being a target of people known and unknown. I would prefer a humble couple of million, which you could conceal from everybody but the IRS.
Momjeanz (Columbus)
No kidding. Did you see that story about the guy in Detroit that walked 21 miles to work every day and someone started one of those crowdfund or whatever sites to raise enough money to let him buy a car? Well, a couple weeks after I heard this story, there was over $300k to give this guy, and then a few days after that, I see that he now has to move because he's getting bothered about it and people are asking him for money and everything... sad.
Antispoofing (Texas)
But...the good news is that he has a brand new Ford to get him to work and back; my take is that he is a net win -- and good for him!
Via (California)
I buy lottery tickets every once in a while, and from the time I buy it until the time I check if it's a winner I enjoy a fun fantasy adventure in my mind. It's probably as enjoyable as a day at Universal Studios would be, and costs me a good deal less than a ticket there. If you indulge the experience in the way that I do, I feel like you get your money's worth.
AlecWest (Vader, WA)
Just once, I'd like to see a jackpot this huge won by an unmarried and unapologetic miser (grin) - someone who proudly tells the media, "Friends, relatives and charities can forget about it. This money is mine, all mine, hehehehe!"

Well, that would work right up to the moment when the winner discovers that the I.R.S. puts its hand out for 39.6% of the winnings. The 25% held out by the lottery commission is only the "mandatory" withholding tax. Winners always end up owing more to Uncle Sam.
AlecWest (Vader, WA)
Just a P.S. & question to anyone who knows the answer. By now, it should be apparent to everyone that the biggest lottery winner in U.S. history - a winner who keeps on winning - is Uncle Sam (the I.R.S.). Every time someone wins a jackpot, big or small, Uncle Sam gets his cut.

The question. Does anyone have statistical info on just how much money Uncle Sam has "won" from his cut of lottery jackpots?
Albert Lewis (Western Massachusetts)
Winners always end up owing more to Uncle Sam, but, being winners, they have the where-with-all to pay up, right? I hate when winner grouse about being winners.
John Eller (Des Moines)
it ain't the government that wins. it's the already wealthy who wind up with lower taxes because of this obscenely regressive sucker tax on the poor and the ignorant.
gels (Cambridge)
I thoroughly enjoyed my thirty minutes of caviar dreams after purchasing two tickets, shortly before the drawing. Like everyone else, I was dismayed to learn that I did not win.

Long ago, I stopped trying to explain the odds of winning to those who spend large on powerball. To help visualize things, I would ask people to imagine 4,672 Fenway Parks lined up next to one another. Each park has 37,499 seats. Under each seat in every park is one ticket from from the total 175,223,510 possible combinations. Your job as a lottery player is to guess under which seat the winning ticket lies. Each guess will cost you $2.

Needless to say, this explanation was typically met with a glassy-eyed stare, and then a frown. Eventually I learned that when reality is misery, most people prefer to simply avoid it. And playing the lottery without grasping the odds is truly delicious avoidance.

Nowadays I better appreciate mathematically irresponsible joy. Moreover, when the pot gets big, I forgo a cup of coffee and daydream a bit myself.
John Sellers (SF Bay Area)
To understand just how bad an investment buying a ticket is, you multiply the amount of the payout times the chances of winning and compare it to what you paid for the ticket.

Reducing factors:
> Don't forget that others may win the same time you do thus dividing your winnings.
> Don't forget that what you actually win will be less than the advertised amount because the real amount is what accumulates for years compounding while you are waiting to collect...a big up front payout is usually less for this reason.
> Don't forget taxes

So calculate this for each possible combination of winning and add them all up. Depending on the lottery the average winnings is almost always less than the amount you paid for the ticket....the rare exception is when so much money rolls over when nobody wins that the tickets sold on the last round and they cost less than the accumulated payout.

Example:
If the payout is $1,000,000 dollars on a one dollar ticket and the odds of winning is one in 5,000,000, then the average payout for each dollar invested is 20 cents for the million dollar prize, and the average loss on each dollar invested is 80 cents for that price amount....and this is not taking into account the winning reducing factors.

You add up all the average payouts to see how much the expected return will be, but typically depending on the context, it is not uncommon for this to be about 25 cents on the dollar....again, without taking into account the winning reducing factors.
Bryan Macey (Johnsburg)
Someone's got to win.... So I will take my chances.
Paul J McNeil (Boston)
Best explained to me in that your $2 bet buys you nothing more than the right to dream. Dreams are okay, right? Especially when it involves a Hunter 45 Center Console and the privilege of eliminating all the mortgages and student debt of everyone you know, not to mention setting up trust funds for future generations of many from your particular neighborhood.
Wayne Seltzer (Boulder, CO)
The odds are 50% -- either you win or you don't. :-)
Mine! (12345)
The greatest thing the lottery would afford me is not being forced to wake up in the morning and go to work! That would be the big prize for me. Good luck players! :)
Douglas A Limbert (Scottsdale, Arizona)
The real issue for me is that most of the people who buy into the lottery cannot afford it, as you might. I think that it is wrong that our governments play on these people.
'As You Know' Bob (12345)
(Whoops, my bad - I misread that on my phone. "$1.93" return ON $2, not the "1.93x" return I misread it as. Apologies for doubting Neil Irwin.)
Dave (Rochester, NY)
Every time the news media report how high the lottery jackpot has climbed, or do a story about the latest lottery millionaire, they should also mention how many millions of dollars were lost by the poor saps who played the lottery in the past week.
Dave (Rochester, NY)
Why would I pay $2 to fantasize about what I would do if I were to win gobs of money, when I can fantasize for free, with virtually the same chance of actually winning?
J. Wong (<br/>)
It is not "virtually" the same chance, which is the whole point of Neil Irwin's article. For $2 you have an actual non-zero chance. If you don't purchase a ticket, you absolutely have no chance.
harry m (Phila pa)
Indeed, the random odds of winning are small. Increase your odds of winning by checking the internet sites' tables infrequent and the ones that have not appeared the longest. Increase your chances of winning sums suggested. longest overdue powerball is 6. Better luck!
Charlie B (USA)
The only time that history changes the odds is when selected numbers are removed from the pool for the next round. That's not how lotteries work; each drawing is an independent event. When you flip a coin there's an equal chance it will come up heads or tails, even if it came up heads the last 10 times you flipped it.

To believe otherwise is just magical thinking.
kayakgirl (oregon)
I am always a donor but you know I look at the people that win and I am just as goofy as some of them look. always worth a shot
Emerson (Brooklyn)
I once read of a study that seemed to indicate an extreme elevation in endorphins from just buying and holding a lottery ticket before the actual draw. And from experience I'd say that was true. If I didn't spend the occasional buck or two on a Lotto or some other drawing, I'd probably throw it away on a pack of Goya cookies or a beer. And yes, it is nice to dream about what I would do with a win even if the other half of my brain is telling me it probably won't happen. And yes, even the $2 wins I've had generally put me ahead by a buck. I don't take cabs, go out to eat, or go to see movies, let me at least have this minor indulgence.
Charlie B (USA)
The chances of being killed on your way to buy the ticket are much higher than your chances of winning. Stay in bed.
codger (Co)
I really don't get it. Why so much money to one person? I've never played, but I'd be much more likely to if there were 100 million dollars prizes instead of 1 100 million dollar prize. A million bucks would radically change most peoples lives. Why not speed the winning around and have 100 big winners instead of 1 mega winner? Seems like hearing about all the new winners would be good for the lottery too.
Kevin (Texas)
We live in a winner take off world these days in the old us of a.

Lotto America
taopraxis (nyc)
One other thought: If you're young, you probably wish you had a million dollars. If you've got a million dollars, you probably wish you were young.
Count your blessings...
Merrill Frank (Jackson Heights,NYC)
Buying a Powerball ticket in order to plan for a comfortable life and retirement is akin to advocates of Supply Side Economics theory of Dynamic Scoring thinking that government coffers will overflow and budgets will magically balance.
taopraxis (nyc)
Your odds are better of becoming suddenly rich by some other form of unexpected windfall are far larger than by playing the lottery. Think in terms of that long lost rich uncle, or of a rare meteorite landing in your backyard, or a cache of gold and diamonds discovered under the floorboards in your old house, or whatever.
Dream on, but save your money.
I just hate seeing people get taken, by the way.
Daily wasting of small sums is a big part of why people are poor.
Dr.F. (NYC, currently traveling)
If you financial planning is as bad as your reasoning here, I suggest you either a) hire a professional financial planner or b) if that is your profession, you think of a different line of work. Forgetting about the value of daydreaming of wealth - I can do it without adding in a minusule chance of winning the lottery -your deliberate avoidance of the tax consequences of a win, throw your calculations off enormously - the expected value of your $2 bet is more like $1, even if you alone win (high unlikely). You'd get better odds at almost any casino game.
jks21 (Yonkers, NY)
Why do so many comments call the lottery a tax? No one is required to play.
W in the Middle (New York State)
Interesting thought

So, if one is required to play - like health care - should we call that a tax
M E R (Rocklandia)
I have a silly superstition that if you are fit enough or well educated enough to earn your own living, then you will never win. In an effort to prove my point I never bought lottery tickets I always tried to fool the fates by iving my money and my numbers to my aged mama. Still didn't win. Mummy has gone now, and I have bought a few tickets for this run. Here is what I will do when I win:
Fund WNYC for one year, give 10 million to WNET, buy a house in Upper Nyack next to another house in Upper Nyack so my daughter and I can live side by side; 3 million to the Malala Fund, 3 million to Habitat for Humanity, 3 million for the ACLU, 3 million for Southern Poverty Law Center, 3 million to whatever Charity my friend Joe is currently working for (because he always does caring things for others), buy a new car for me and my daughter and my best friend. Buy my friend a little house in Westchester near her family, pay off my other friends mortgage (cause she doesn't want to move EVER), adopt another dog, Take all of us (including the puppies) to Hawaii for Christmas and to Italy for a year; buy a house for my niece and nephew; pay the annuity for all the plots in the family grave, buy my other friend a new car, buy a snow blower, try and do something nice for everyone who has ever been nice to me, buy some new socks, join a gym because when I quit my job I will finally have time to go.
Jennifer (hinterlands of North Carolina)
Sounds like a plan!
AlecWest (Vader, WA)
How about this idea. Before redeeming the ticket, I'd legally change my name. And before any required publicity event, I'd go to a salon and have them to an extreme makeover - making me look totally different than I appear now. That way, media hounds, businesses, charities, and others would be looking for someone who only exists on paper. And once I redeemed the ticket under the new name and appearance, I'd change them both back - renting a motorhome to go on a long road-trip.

By the time I got back, all the media interest would have died down ... allowing me to live a comfortable life (middle-class style, so as not to draw any curiosity). At that point, I'd set up a trust to make charitable gifts anonymously - and wisely.
Unhappy camper (Planet Earth)
Read the NYT article on taking the proceeds as an annuity! That will help you avoid becoming one of the 75% of lottery winners that end up bankrupt.
Mark (Atlanta)
If you could buy endorphins, the amount received from this $2 pleasant fantasy would be a bargain.
Tom Ontis (California)
I play it occasionally. In the years we have had regular lottery here in California, since the mid-1980s, I've won $35 on scratch-offs.
AJB (Maryland)
And you've spent...?
You've Got to be Kidding (Here and there)
Buying PowerBall is like going to the movies, except the ticket costs $2 not $12. Let your imagination run wild. It's a great deal (as long as you can afford it and don't have a gambling problem).
Boz K (Madison WI)
Before buying a ticket I always remind myself that picking 01,02,03,04,05 and 06 has the exact same odds as any other combination of numbers of winning and that those are pretty long odds.
India (Midwest)
I just bought my 5 Poweball tickets, and yes it is a LOT of fun to think how I'd spend it. The best would be to guarantee college to my grandchildren - I'll pay for any school in which you can get in so aim high. The 2nd would be to take a few trips with my entire family while I'm still well enough to do so - an African safari is at the top of my list.

And I can think of several charitable contributions I'd like to make such as a much larger and better pulmonary rehab at my local hospital - one that really worked with patients and tried to get them to lose weight and get stronger. A couple of million should make a difference there.
Andrew Mao (USA)
It's not far from apt to describe the lottery as a "tax on the stupid".

What the article fails to mention is that winning the lottery can often be worse for you than not winning. There are many documented instances where a lottery win leads to a ruined life. Friends suddenly aren't sincere, con artists come out of the woodwork...and this is all unavoidable if you live in a state where the prize can't be claimed anonymously. Above all, many people just lose their mind because they have no idea how to judiciously handle such a large amount of cash.
taopraxis (nyc)
Absolutely true. Be careful what you wish for out there...
JXG (Space)
Well, somebody is going to win it, eventually. And why can't that winner be me? I disagree with the article. The two dollars is an investment just like any other including Wall Street. Sometimes you lose, and sometimes you might win. And if I lose, I'm still investing in education. Moreover, I don't need to win the jackpot since I'm not interested in private airplanes or mansions. I'll be happy with just the second price, or the third... Be positive and keeping wishing upon a star!
Joel (New York, NY)
Yes it's an investment, but if you value it just like any other investment it's not a very good one because the probability weighted return is substantially below the cost.
JXG (Space)
Joel, an investment in education is never a failure. Also, many times I win back what I spend at 200% and 300%. Not bad at all.
JAD (Somewhere in Maine)
"Who doesn't fantasize about what sort of airplanes they would buy if ..." Well, I don't. And I imagine most rational people don't either. There are many more amusing things to waste time doing than this.
John (Ohio)
Someone will win, and they will have bought a ticket.

All other ticket buyers could take satisfaction, beyond dreaming, in knowing they have enabled someone to join the .01%, who may in turn become a philanthropist.
Helena (Madison, Wi)
My sister will tell me how infintesimally low the chances of winning are (she doesn't buy tickets) and I'll tell her that I know that, but I also know that some people do win and they have bought tickets.
ISBlalock (35205)
For years my husband and I would buy a lottery ticket and then happily argue over how we would spend our winnings. Really cheap fun!!
AJB (Maryland)
Now *this* makes sense!
Cat (Outta state)
I have a relative who won 80K in their state lottery. The family was really scraping by. They paid off all their debts, picked up a new sofa and chairs for the living room and paid for the kids' first year of college. Another relative won about 5K and took his large family on a nice holiday. Another gal won some amount of money. She squirreled it away (it wasn't that much) and it became a fun anecdote. So, yes, you can win. You might not get the big prize, but you could get something. People who cluck their tongues about people who spend large sums on lottery tickets have to realize that the problem with those spenders is not the lottery, but that the spenders have an impuse control problem or a gambling problem, which is the real reason they are financially strapped. You can't fix that and taking something away from the rest of us doesn't help, either.
adara614 (North Coast)
I first started playing the NY lottery by mail. At that time you could actually buy yourself a ticket for 1 years worth of drawings. About 4-6 times a year I would get a check for a small amount. I never broke even.

I play for the fun of it. I enjoy "planning" what I would do with a solo winning ticket. My "plans" get more elaborate as the jackpot grows.

I have played one set of #s 2x/wk. for the past 30 years. Another set for 20+ years. I now play them because of how upset I would be mif those #s won and I hadn't played.

I hope I win tonight.
My plans always include some portion going to my kids and some to various charities.
taopraxis (nyc)
The lottery is a sucker's bet...period.
Your odds of winning are zero to more decimals than are even on the average calculator.
When I was young and stupid, I bought lottery tickets when the jackpot was large enough to make the odds look attractive, but as I got older I realized something very few people will probably be able to relate to, i.e., I do *not* really want to win a half billion dollars.
I simply do not need those kinds of problems.
Think about it...everyone you ever met would be after you for money.
No thanks!
MB (Tv Land)
State lotteries were created as a response to the numbers racket, which was condemned by politicians because the mob took 40% "vigorish" (a $1 ticket with a 1/1000 chance paid $600). Now, the lottery (California) takes out 55%.

We don't have a state lottery in Nevada because no Nevadan would be caught dead wagering at those odds.

However, as the article says, a 1/175M chance of winning a lump sum of $350M or more on a $2 wager gives the player a theoretical advantage. When that happens many of us aren't above driving 30 miles to the California border.
hb (West Chester, PA)
However miniscule, your chances of winning are infinitely higher if you have a ticket than if you don't!
MH (South Jersey, USA)
There's an old expression about lotteries: everyone's a winner until 6:00 O'clock.
RJR8222 (Seattle)
Years ago I chided a friend bout the foolishness of buying lottery tickets. He responded, "It's a ticket to dream. Without buying a ticket you have to fantasize finding the winning ticket." I found his argument persuasive and I now engage in this form of voluntary taxation when a little dreaming sounds like fun...
acrftr (san francisco)
Buying one is fine as long as it's just a buck. Sure the odds are only slightly better than the odds of the actual winner searching you out and giving you the money they won, but it's fun to think about what you might do with instant wealth. But I do think the government entities sponsoring the lotteries need to do a better job of explaining the odds - 'you have a better chance of being hit by an asteroid just after hitting a hole in one - but hey. It's only a buck.' I hate to see people with little or no money waste their money on buying more than one ticket.
Uga Muga (Miami)
Buying lottery tickets for several hundred million dollar payouts makes sense. I would much rather not win $300 million than not win $30 million.

Seeing what appear to be poor or poorish people I recognize at the same gas station/convenience store spend $20-30-50 at a time on the numerous lottery offerings does give me pause.
Charles Peterson (Colorado Springs)
I have been purchasing a powerball ticket for almost every drawing for many years. I have never believed I would ever win. I understand the math. But what I do know is that someone always wins. I have contributed to the creation of 50-100 newly minted multimillionares, with all the attendant benefits and problems. I like that. It works every time, so I never lose. I always get what I paid for.
Rob (NYC)
Yes. Buying one lottery ticket can be worth the fun. The problem is when people who can ill afford it buy multiple lottery ticket with money that could be better spent elsewhere or saved. Many people have a basic misunderstanding of statistics and think that buying multiple tickets will increase their chances. This is statistically not true in any practical sense. If I buy one ticket I have a chance of winning. If you buy 100 tickets your chances are no better than mine just by rounding. So by all means, participate with a ticket, but don't throw your money away on a handful of them!!
Emily (new york)
That's silly. I I have one hundred tickets and you have one. I have a 100 times higher probability of winning than you.
Ken Potus (Nyc)
I think his point is 100 x 0 is still pretty much 0.
Mitchell (Haddon Heights, NJ)
If you buy one ticket, you have virtually no chance of winning. If you buy one hundred tickets, you still have virtually no chance of winning (1.75 million to 1). I bought one ticket. Just enough to win.
zoli (san francisco)
Sure the odds are something to overcome, but someone will win, so tell the person(s) who does(do) finally win he/she/they shouldn't have bought tickets because of the odds.
426131 (Brooklyn, NY)
I thought the lottery was supposed to fund schools. How come schools in the poor areas lack funding like rich areas?
Ted (Brooklyn)
Obscene wealth, you say?
MelanioFlaneur (san diego, ca)
Simple decision, buy only what you can afford. I only buy 6-10 dollars worth since the drawings often stretch out to rollover in 2-5 drawings. I never let myself dream that suddenly I will be lucky. We still have a regular pool for the MegaMillions that we only try for as a group when it hits 100 million and over (we have 17 in the pool). Dreaming is fine but putting your car payment into the lottery on hopes to hit it big is a no-no.
James Currin (Stamford, CT)
If Neil Irwin were to come into "obscene wealth" from his two dollar investment in powerball, it would only empower him to indulge himself in silliness on a garantuan scale compared to that of this article. He has, however, overlooked the principal social value of lotteries. They provide a much needed source of profit to proprietors of small businesses who provide useful services to the public. For example, the shop where i purchase my pipe tobacco, run by an extended Indian family, also purveys cigars, pipes, lighters, and an extensive choice of newspapers and magazines. As I stand in line behind the hopeless suckers waiting to have their tickets punched, I rejoice in the fact that the pleasures of tobacco are immediately gratifying, rather than in the sweet by-and-by.
Alan (Mass.)
It's a small amount to pay to feel those fantasy-fueled endorphins coursing through my body...
Ken Potus (Nyc)
I agree. In my opinion for most people buying the lottery is just another way to take a mental break from reality. Like watching wwe or the Superbowl or reading what kim kardashian is doing.
Lynn in DC (um, DC)
I think the lottery is a relief valve. The desire to hit it big and get rich keeps the poor from storming the Bastille. The "financially literate" should think carefully about destroying those desires with a dose of reality.
Chris (Northern Virginia)
Despite the fact that I don't need any more disappointment in my life, I still buy lottery tickets when the jackpot goes above $250M.
Kelly (NYC)
What, is $200 million not enough to pique your interest? :-)
david dennis (boston area)
when the mass megamillions had it's first big jackpot in the early 80's the guy i worked for said, "I'm going to the mall and buy me some new clothes." i sniffed at this. my plan was to take the concorde to paris and buy new clothes.
my plan this time is to buy as much of arizona as i can. to heck with all this snow, and you can see the milky way from there.
Mike T. (Los Angeles, CA)
You talked me into it! $100K to you if I win
joseph murphy (portland or)
"Hope"? If you need a lotery ticket to have a bit of hope, then buy one. If you have some hope, studies on happiness would suggest being generous is the best thing to do with your two dollars. I'll give to a homeless person.
Franki (San Francisco)
If you win... You could give a lot of homeless people a lot more.
Flyingoffthehandle (World Headquarters)
The ticket I bought is the winning ticket.

I will not be posting again after my numbers are called tonight.

Have a nice life! I am going to for sure!!

EOS
Jon W (Chgo)
Once it's understood that you're paying for the entertainment value of thinking you might have won, surely the key to maximizing lottery value is to buy one ticket, for the largest jackpot, and then hold it until the day before it would expire - avoiding news reports about who won...? Maximize time spent hoping, minimize expense.
ernieh1 (Queens, NY)
Sometimes I will invest in a $1 lottery ticket and pass up that bag of chips that looks so delicious. (In fact the bag of chips usually cost more than $1)

This is a rational decision on my part to take a long-odds chance on something that could be very good for me, even though I am aware of the odds, over something I know will be bad for me. (And yes, I always tell myself if I ever win anything big, I will give much of it to a good cause. )
steve (Geneva NY)
Apparently this is the only regressive tax that is somehow acceptable. Poor folks are duped when they willingly sign up for payday loans, but Lotto - that's different, because it's the state getting the action?
Unhappy camper (Planet Earth)
Not the ONLY regressive tax that's acceptable. Hawaii has a general excise tax that is applied to all purchases, including food. You will also pay the G.E.T. on professional services as well.
ez (Pittsburgh)
The first things one should do if they collect the really big prize are:

1. Move and get an unlisted phone number.
2. Buy a couple of trained dobermans.
3. Hire full time bodyguards for your grandchildren.
Mtt (Dominican Republic)
No need. Just hace your friend or lawyer get the prize fue you. You keep been incognito. Wealthy and silent.
ez (Pittsburgh)
PA lottery rules require that the winners are identified. I don't have any friends I would trust and certainly not a lawyer.
edsmedia (Boston)
Also, if you do play, it's better to let the computer pick numbers than to use your own special numbers. That's because your special numbers are more likely to match someone else's special numbers (due to use of dates, numbers less than 31 are overrepresented, etc) and so it increases your chance of having to share. You lessen that factor by using truly random numbers.

Also, if you play repeatedly (say, every time the jackpot gets very large), using special numbers can force you into a mindset of "I *have* to play -- maybe this time my numbers will win" or even worse "What if my numbers came up and I forgot to play?"
Jim Greenwood (CT)
The author's argument may apply to a single individual, but in order to get this size lottery you have to get millions of individuals willing to collectively part with half a billion dollars. Each may apply the author's logic to justify his or her bet, but collectively the bottom line is the same: millions of people will throw away money to help one or two people join the 1%.
MockingbirdGirl (USA)
Last month, an 80-year-old retired elementary school principal and wife won the lottery. If me "throwing away $2" helped them join the 1%, then you know what? I'm okay with that. Really, really okay.
drsophila (albany)
To maximize the value of your lottery ticket, buy it immediately after a drawing has been held. That way, you have a potential winning ticket in your pocket for the longest possible time before it loses.
Justin (Minnesota)
What do you mean by "strictly economic terms". That $1 will buy the same apple whether the jackpot is high or low. And the chance you will be able to buy and eat that apple (essentially 100%) does not change. The chance of winning the lottery (essentially 0%) also does not change. Those are real economic terms.

And you neglect to mention a currency that everyone is in short supply of: time. I've already spent about two minutes writing this not thanks to this stupid hypocritical lottery...
rjb_boston (boston)
consumption pleasure does not have to be encountered via biting into an apple - more often than not the best pleasures are intangible. point is for a couple of bucks you can spend some of your spare time fantasizing a bit and that makes your mind fresh for when you return to your daily thought routines, or at least if you believe this to be the case its money not totally unwisely spent. capiche?
Jon (Florida)
Take it from me, you do not want to live in Florida; the warm winters are the only plus to the state and it's unbearably hot in the summer.

As for the money, buying a lottery ticket is paying for a thrill just like all gambling. The trap is people thinking it will improve their lives. As for the size of the payout, that is pretty irrelevant to individuals, but going in with a bunch of people at, say, $20 a piece and splitting the prize is a decent way to increase your odds from "hell freezing over" closer to "getting struck by lightning" territory.
Flyingoffthehandle (World Headquarters)
I wish.....

The odds of getting struck by lightning are no less than 1 in a million.

You might want to be more careful around lightning?
Ira (Portland, OR)
Actually, the odds of getting struck by lightning are about 1 in 11,000. Pretty low.
taopraxis (nyc)
I used to live in Florida...lots of thunderstorms. You'd be more likely to get struck twice by lightening than to win the lottery.
Vanadias (Maine)
I propose that the lottery is actually a more realistic representation of our economy than, say, a jobs report. Why? Because it accurately represents the incredible good fortune and luck one must have in order to be financially secure in today's society.

One of our challenges as a country is how to keep those tickets into the middle class--such as a college education--from turning into lottery tickets themselves.
Jim F. (outside Philly)
Rational bet. My wife and I make a more than reasonable sum. Despite the supposed innumeracy in a low likelihood of winning, I play the lottery, but within the recommended limit of 0.5% of gross income. What is disturbing is seeing people who appear to be able to ill afford the money, spending $50 on lottery tickets where the expected rate of return is 50% of actual.
mjp (san francisco, ca)
I like your present value analysis, and heard something else years ago: "the only lottery ticket that's worth buying is the first one - it gets you in the game and has the biggest effect on your probability of winning. Every ticket after the first has no marginal value, as it doesn't meaningfully increase your odds." I'm not a mathematician but "you can't win if you don't play" made sense to me. So when I do buy tickets, I buy one ticket in each lottery. I usually get a strange look from the the clerk, but there's a method to the madness!
Dennis (Wilmington, Delaware)
The only thing for sure is, if you don't play, you won't win.
Jen (Massachusetts)
And that if I don't play, I keep my $2.
Robert (New York)
Also, if you do play, you still don't win.
Alex (New Orleans)
"But there are a couple of dimensions that these tut-tutted warnings miss, perhaps fueled by a class divide between those who commonly buy lottery tickets and those who choose to throw away money on other things like expensive wine or mansions."

I grew up poor, and am decidedly not the upper class hypocrite that you describe. I watched, and continue to watch, friends and family throw away money on the lottery that they can't afford to lose. One of my best friends always claims to be "up" on scratch-off purchases. Lottery tickets are his first purchase every week when he gets his paycheck. He has nothing to show for years of manual labor. No savings, no home, no big lottery winnings. Nor will he never have those things as long as he keeps playing the lottery.

The lottery is a tax on the poor, uneducated, and ignorant. It's a scam that fleeces people who least understand how it works, but most need the prize it purports to offer. Some casino games carry better odds.

"It’s actually more complicated than that, because that calculation doesn't account for the fact that there could be multiple jackpot winners who must split the pot. And it doesn't account for the income tax you will owe on any winnings."

No, it's not "more complicated" than that; it's WORSE than that, WORSE than the $1.93 that you chose to print. With your "elaborate spreadsheets" you could have easily estimated how much worse and given an accurate number instead of writing this pap.
jks21 (Yonkers, NY)
The lottery isn't a tax on the poor, or on anyone. Your friend can choose not to play the lottery. The IRS doesn't give that option.
John Eller (Des Moines)
it is most certainly a tax. it reduces taxes on the already-wealthy by taxing ignorance, gullibility, and the venile dreams of the destitute instead. it is immoral and beneath the dignity of a republic incorporated "to provide for the general welfare." taxes and lotteries should be returned to their relative status as of 1960.
ez (Pittsburgh)
The concept of "expected value" is learned in MBA school so I only play when the jackpot has built up. State lotteries have a payout of about 45 cents on the dollar which is less than the old illegal numbers game at 60 cents on the dollar and some games at the local casino.
Wonder why most winners take the immediate cash despite the big tax bite, probably because they have consulted a accountant and tax advisor. If one takes the annuity then when you die your estate owes taxes on the remaining amount even though the estate won't receive the money yet.
ED (Boise, ID)
The lottery (i.e., gambling) perpetuates fake hope. It is a blind way to live life. It's better to face the life you have, with all its problems, and work hard for the life you want to have. Magic pills usually turn out bitter. For me, I would rather live simply and save my money. Even just buying a coffee will generate more happiness than government sanctioned gambling.
LabHandyman (NJ)
I make it a point to buy ONE ticket (no more, no less) when the jackpot gets this high. That first ticket buys you the right to dream. The second one ends up doubling a very tiny probability, which is still a very tiny probability.
SteveO (Connecticut)
I have tended towards addiction in the past, and I sense that gambling could be a problem for me.
Still, I have some fun with lotto tickets, but I ensure it doesn't get out of hand by setting the following four extremely strict limits: 1) no more than $10 on any drawing, 2) all purchases must be at least two weeks apart, 3) no more than five purchases in one calendar year, and 4) never wait in line to buy a ticket.
This limits my annual maximum cost to $50, and I have almost as much fun deciding whether to buy in this week, or wait a week, etc. I've never won a damn cent, but then, neither have most people.
Paul (unincorporated)
I look at buying a lottery ticket like this, it is pure entertainment. I can dream about how I'd spend all of the money before the drawing. When I don't win, hey, I still had a good time. Looking at it that way it is one of the best entertainment values going. Heck, I don't even have to buy a ticket all of the time. I can dream about winning someday anytime! Just so long as I buy a ticket now, and again, it works for me.
P (NY)
The odds are 175 million to one against winning. What are the odds of finding a winning ticket on the street? Probably ten times worse (about 2 billion to one). So I just need a bigger imagination, and I can play the mind game by simply watching where I walk for the next day or two.
Axel Boldt (Minneapolis)
The main argument against buying a lottery ticket is not its negative expected value. The main argument comes from the likelihood of negative consequences of a win.

So you just won $300 million and your name and photo was on TV and in all the papers. Can you really deal with the deluge of long forgotten friends and family pleading for support, offering business proposals and advising you about wonderful investment opportunities? Do you know how to filter out fraudulent and incompetent financial advisers? How to distinguish between true and false friends? Have you thought about bodyguards to protect your children from kidnapping? If you quit your job, what are you going to do all day long when it's getting boring, maybe open some sort of business? Unfortunately you have no idea how to run a business, so that will fail too.

Will your relationship survive all those upheavals and will you come out happier at the end? In all likelihood you won't.
LouAZ (Aridzona)
Friends ? The only "Friends" I will remember after winning the Powerball are the ones I have now . . . before the Powerball.

C'mon, man . . . get real. We're talking over $300M cash. Once I buy Rhode Island . . . everyone will forget all about it . . . and buy chances on the next $40M.
Damon Darlin (<br/>)
So it's true what they say about seasonal affective disorder up there in Minnesota? Not everyone uses the chance to win millions as an opportunity to daydream about disaster.
Celia Sgroi (Oswego, NY)
My fantasy of wealth doesn't include new "friends" and fraudsters. If I had bought the ticket, (actually I forgot to buy one), I would have had a dream. You seem to be more into nightmares. Enjoy!
AP (New England, U.S.)
When I was in college, I used to look at poker games this way. The buy-in was usually around $15~20 (remember, this is college) that I could afford to lose for a few hours of entertainment. It's like going to a movie, except it was more social, and with the chance of winning some money (lower payout but much higher probability than the lottery). Ofcourse, most of us were pretty disciplined about it but there were people who would re-buy multiple times and lose more than $100. We used to call those kids ATMs (which seems pretty sociopathic in hindsight...suddenly feeling a lot of guilt).
Karen Healy (Buffalo, N.Y.)
Thanks. This is exactly why I periodically shell out a dollar or two for a ticket. It's a fun fantasy for a while and you can't really have it unless the minuscule possibility of it coming true exists. Should people with serious money problems buy $40 or $50 worth of tickets every week. Obviously not. But 5 dollars a month for me is not a stretch and its fun.
William Walsman (Cape Cod, MA)
I don't play the lottery for many reasons, most have been sited. But one big reason is simply this. I like to get into my car daily and drive to all the places I have to go blissfully expecting to return home each time with car and myself in one piece. Sometimes I'm outside working when a sudden thunder storm arrives with the potential for catastrophic personal consequences. I take shelter as quickly as possible but don't get too worked up knowing my odds are good that I'll make it to safety in time. Occasionally I travel to big cities like New York, Boston and so forth knowing the risk for various types of theft or personal harm increase many fold from where I live, but don't hesitate for a moment realizing the odds are greatly in my favor that the trip will work out well. I could go on and on about all the things I do daily, weekly that could go terribly wrong but never do and that never give me a moments pause. If I decided to play the lottery and miraculously won my state of mostly calm equilibrium in all that I do would be forever shattered. If something as impossible as me winning the lottery ever happened the material riches gained would be offset by a new found realization that the sky might just fall. And many other nightmares with far less odds of materializing than picking the winning power ball numbers might actually lurk just around the next corner.

i
Incredulosity (New York, NY)
As the always-elegant Debbie Harry once sang, "Dreaming is free." You don't actually need to spend the money to dream the dream. The odds are essentially the same either way.

Nevertheless, I put money in my office pool. Woe be to the CEO if our numbers come up! (Oh wait... did she put in too?)
Bamarolls (Westmont, IL)
So, if I think of it as tax on my dreams, I should feel better about myself. Wait till Tea partiers get to understand this.
Emily (Minneapolis, MN)
Well said! I'm going to go buy a ticket right now. Costs me less than going to Starbucks. And hey, I don't know for sure that I won't win. I just might....
George (New York)
I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who uses the "present value" explanation for buying a high jackpot Powerball (or MegaMillions) ticket.

I do hope you have better luck convincing anyone else about this point than I have had so far. The usual reaction I get is "It's a tax on people who don't understand math."
Jim Greenwood (CT)
You cannot use the present value, as calculated in this article, to justify playing the lottery. It's still a losing proposition. About the most salient point of the article is that you're "throwing away less money." Any present value calculation is just a rationionalization.

I hope no one who plays the lottery ever complains about the wealth gap. The lottery simply makes an already too big wealth gap bigger. And it's likely that the people most negatively affected by the wealth gap are the ones who throw the most money at the lottery. Think the Koch brothers, Warren Buffet, et all, play?
John Broussard (Louisiana)
The author is basically correct that it makes some mathematical sense. But psychologically it's a slippery slope. Once you start thinking that way and fantasizing of great wealth = happiness, you'll probably be standing in line again and again.... No thank you. That money looks just fine in my wallet where it's going to stay. It's a fool's dream tax.
Paul (Aurora, IL)
Our company has a pool when the jackpot hits these historic highs, and it is the only time I play the lottery. Not because I think we'll somehow win, but because I consider $2 a small price to ensure that I will never be the guy on the news who missed out when all his co-workers became overnight millionaires.
Tom (Darien CT)
Live in a town with bunches of super rich financial people who decry those buying lottery tickets and act like it's a terrible thing to do. I always tell them it's easy to take that attitude. They've already won the lottery you see.
Random Guy (NY)
You've got to be in it to fantasize about winning it. The dream is worth the dollar.
Simone (Ann Arbor)
When I win the Powerball, I'm going to Biarritz for a week to come to terms with my new life. :)
Pen (Utah)
Hope is a powerful emotion.
Dave Milner (Baltimore, MD)
It's entertainment. $2 for some fantasies. Less than the cost of a movie.
Stew (Dallas)
seems like the valuation should be relative to the buyer's financial situation, not the size or timing of the jackpot
Steve (Carmel)
So if the odds of wining are about 1 in 175 million, what are the odds of two winners? One in 175 million squared? If so, that would not reduce the value of the ticket by much. Play on!
Flint Hasset (Brooklyn, NY)
In fact, the odds of having multiples winners are quite high. If about 300 million tickets are sold, about 20% of the time no one will win, 32% of the time 1 person will win, and 48% of the time, 2 or more persons will win. This drastically reduces your expected payouts.

The odds you cite (1 in 175m squared) are the odds of YOU winning twice. Good luck with that!
Stickler (New York, NY)
If you REALLY want to gamble, pick your numbers, but DON'T play them. Then, if you lose you win, and if you win you lose!
Nothing Better to do (nyc)
Actually, the best reason to not play has nothing to do with the impact on you personally but on the fact that the whole lottery system is rigged as an alternative tax on people who are generally less affluent and have gambling issues. On top of that it's been shown that states have basically reduced education funding by the same amounts or more then the lotteries are bringing in, so that on a net basis there is no benefit to the education the states advertising tells us we are supporting through the purchase of tickets. All that being said, I have to admit I bought a ticket!
Jack (Northern California)
I don't think the $1.93 net present value calculation in the article accounts for the possibility of winning lesser prizes.
Steve (Los Angeles CA)
Yes, lotteries are "taxes on the stupid." However, I gladly pay this "stupid tax" for every multi-state lottery drawing, no matter the jackpot, for the exact reasons stated here. Sacrificing six dollars per week allows me to dream of permanent financial independence. For me, the dream is totally worth it.
Ewlter (Babanjo)
The phrase is "tax on the poor", and it isn't a tax since it's voluntary.
James F (Portland)
Even though the chances of winning are about the same if you do or do not buy a ticket - you must present a ticket to claim your winnings. So buy a ticket and enjoy fantasizing about all that money for a little while.
LouAZ (Aridzona)
If I win this Powerball . . . I'd like to try Sky Diving.
Always thought it would be fun.
Paul (unincorporated)
Skydiving? Heck I'd probably seal myself up in a bombproof vault. With that kind of loot you can't be too careful, you know?
LouAZ (Aridzona)
No. I meant that I would hire someone to jump out of an airplane for me ! (Gotcha !)
Ross (Burlington, VT)
Skydiving isn't that expensive in the scheme of things. Paid about $200 a few years back for a tandem jump, and I'm sure you can hunt down a better deal on something like Livingsocial. If that's what you really want to do with the winnings, save your money instead and in a few years go do it.
LO (WA)
it cost's $2.00 to dream..I think I can afford that.
Alex (New Orleans)
It costs $0 to dream.
Kelly (NYC)
I think LO means it costs $2 for this particular dream.
Jack (Rumson, NJ)
Thanks Alex. You beat me to it.