All of it is clearly Obama's fault, even though he was out of the country. The storm itself, the weather folks, the cry wolf's in NYC, and the TV hair sprays who ventured into the teeth of the storm only to find Manhattan in good shape. Libertarians wonder why we even need a weather service. It's so wasteful and this proves it. But something had to offset Deflategate.
8
Listen, Kids, I live outside of LA. When we receive a wind alert or a heavy rain alert(not often, bur did in mid December) we listen. Wind = fire in many cases. Heavy rain where I live = flooding and very wet snow. Who am I to question the weather folks. If they had not warned you, and it had been worse, you would be yelling all the same. Get over it.
12
It's easy to sympathize with the position that the governor and mayor were in.
But, is this how our state is going to handle future bad weather forecasts -- by effectively shutting all transportation, any time a bad storm is predicted?
We actually get the kind of storm that was predicted about once every 5 years or so. If our transportation facilities and our snow removal capabilities can't handle that kind of storm maybe a better response, from our civic leaders, would be a plan that would enable them to handle it.
But, is this how our state is going to handle future bad weather forecasts -- by effectively shutting all transportation, any time a bad storm is predicted?
We actually get the kind of storm that was predicted about once every 5 years or so. If our transportation facilities and our snow removal capabilities can't handle that kind of storm maybe a better response, from our civic leaders, would be a plan that would enable them to handle it.
3
This storm was "historic" even before it had actually arrived...doom, doom...
It was historic. Just not the way the press was portraying it.
It was historic. Just not the way the press was portraying it.
3
As an American who has lived abroad, a Baby Boomer, and an educator, may I just share my perspective that I find so many Americans are in the habit of complaining!! What a nation of whiners we have become! It is really disheartening, and such a disagreeable trait...It's as though everyone feels entitled to complain. It is so unattractive!
22
Do you realize that the heavy handed response of the politicians play right into the hand of the GOP? In anticipation of this snowstorm (climate change), let's make drastic changes to our way of life now, just in case the worst happens. Well, what if the worst does not happen? Spare me about all the climate change models predicting global warming.
Any conservative politician worth his/her salt should be able to point to the fact that because the weather models were wrong, we should also not trust the climate models either, especially since the liberals want us to dramatically change our way of life.
Any conservative politician worth his/her salt should be able to point to the fact that because the weather models were wrong, we should also not trust the climate models either, especially since the liberals want us to dramatically change our way of life.
2
The subways of New York City are vulnerable to flooding. Heroic efforts saved them (despite some flooding) during Sandy, and the damage repair is ongoing--and this was despite closing the system prior to the storm. Shutting subways down to be able to defend better against flooding, and prevent a train from getting trapped if a tunnel is flooded sounds like a pretty good idea.
I wonder how many inches of margin there was at the highest tide plus low pressure plus wind driven water/waves? Anybody out there know? I would bet that the 10% probability value was less than 12 inches of safety with the subways and stations open and running. Shutting down the subways for a bit to avoid a week to years long cleanup seems like a reasonable precaution.
My best guess is that the Moscow subway has a very low threat from seawater flooding. Not true of the (partially below sea level) NYC subway system.
I wonder how many inches of margin there was at the highest tide plus low pressure plus wind driven water/waves? Anybody out there know? I would bet that the 10% probability value was less than 12 inches of safety with the subways and stations open and running. Shutting down the subways for a bit to avoid a week to years long cleanup seems like a reasonable precaution.
My best guess is that the Moscow subway has a very low threat from seawater flooding. Not true of the (partially below sea level) NYC subway system.
13
The theatrical and literal closure of states was just a sorry excuse for our utter inability to maintain infrastructure and public services. One hundred years ago our ancestors dragged houses across the frozen bay here, and today we can't get our kids to school on their own two feet because of a winter storm. It's freaking New England, not the Arctic. Walking around today with everything shuttered, it's evident that our populace will jump at any excuse to slow down and live life at a sane pace, but are unwilling to do so without the prompt of the politicos giving them permission to do so. It will be back to the same old tomorrow, texting on the road, working 24/7, and not able to cut back until the next contrived non-disaster. Our national mien is toast.
4
I never felt let down by NOAA's hourly written updates, which are my sole source of weather information online 365 days a year. (Yes, it does help that I am a former meteorologist, so I understand their language.) For kicks on this pending storm, however, I viewed what talking heads were saying online -- twitter, mass media, etc. -- only to see who had become the latest (non-scientist) celebrity riding a wave of mass hysteria -- that they were creating to boost their ego. Then the politicians had to react to that mass hysteria, and, well, we know by now they never react well to anything. So, that is my gripe -- blame those who think they are in control, or want to be in control, since that is the same thing anymore.
I agree with the politicians. The weekend news focused on "the worst snowstorm in New York City's history". What were Cuomo and de Blasio supposed to do -- keep their fingers crossed in hopes that it hit Boston?
12
I was thrilled we didn't get snowed in. I get plenty of action and excitement as it is. A nice couple of days of working from home, a chance to get some cleaning done and play with the cats, good stuff.
All that, nobody died, AND I get to make snarky jokes about the "wintery post apocalyptic hellscape"?
Best.storm.evar.
All that, nobody died, AND I get to make snarky jokes about the "wintery post apocalyptic hellscape"?
Best.storm.evar.
12
Right, no one can predict the weather with 100% accuracy and no one needs pointless after-the-fact griping. But this episode raises questions that demand answers--such as, why did Gov. Cuomo order the subway system closed on Monday at 4:30, when hours earlier MTA Chairman Tom Prendergast told reporters he didn’t think completely closing the subways would be necessary for the storm? And why did the governor give the mayor of New York just 30 minutes' warning of his decision to do so?
When New Yorkers pay the price for what seems to be a power play between Albany and New York City, it's hardly "griping" to ask what the heck is going on?
When New Yorkers pay the price for what seems to be a power play between Albany and New York City, it's hardly "griping" to ask what the heck is going on?
5
while i have a slight disappointment in not getting a "historic" snowfall, i confess to being delighted with my "snow day" off. however, i do feel closing the subways and rails was a bit insane, especially as there are many, many "essential" workers: nurses, emts, phone operators, MTA workers, etc. who have no other way to get to their "essential" jobs. closing the subways should only come as a very, very last resort, and provide other methods for essential workers to get to their places of business. or have arrangements for them to stay overnight in a comfortable place.
12
Trains were still running empty. Lot of folks in New York depend on public transportation for everything. What about the folks working third shift who were stranded. What about folks who don't have luxury of getting paid when they don't work. This could have been handled better. Thirty inches of snow darn we have had over twenty inches on numerous occasions. Six more inches caused Chicken Little to raise his head on this. In a 118 years of service six more inches of snow caused this. Where is the compassion for the homeless sleeping on vents all over the city just to keep warm? Make them go to shelters since we have grown so caring.
2
"What about folks who don't have luxury of getting paid when they don't work."
Maybe if we weren't so anti-labor in this country, and stingy with time-off, people could still get paid in such an emergency.
Maybe if we weren't so anti-labor in this country, and stingy with time-off, people could still get paid in such an emergency.
15
So true if the poor folks who have no other means of transportation got paid it wouldn't be so bad. Folks who ride mass transit always have to take the hit. Lot of folks who ride mass transit live paycheck to paycheck. Sure lives matter but if trains were still running to keep the service up. Could not those trains had of transported the working who has to be out there.
2
Check out Nate Silver's blog, who analyzes weather-prediction models the way he looks at political polls. He gets election results almost 100 percent right by crunching all the polling. He points out most of the weather forecasters looked at the doomsday scenarios and ignored less dramatic predictions. Maybe better safe than sorry, but the weather hypesters want to boost ratings more than anything.
2
While I, living in Monmouth County NJ, was disappointed by only 6 inches of snow, I understand the necessity of shutting things down in the name of safety. However, perhaps it was a bit over reactive shutting the subways down while still running trains to make sure the tracks were safe. I could also drop back to my youth some 60 years ago and say "We used to walk to school". Now it's all about busing, insurance and safety and I understand, but there is something wonderful in waking up to an unannounced massive snowstorm so bring back Tex Antoine and Uncle Wethbee for our weather reports instead of the "ratings" oriented 24/7 weather blather.
7
Ok then..WHO will pay for the $200 million SNAFU? Or is it the old, 'mistakes will happen'?
If this is the best our weather forecasters can do, let's go back to spitting in the wind!
If this is the best our weather forecasters can do, let's go back to spitting in the wind!
2
"They are telling you that you can't go out into the streets when it's snowing? This situation is a total disgrace, as Americans are now bowing down to the total control of their lives". -- Gerald Celente
Since when is considering the public health and welfare 'bowing down to total control'. Obviously the biggest complainers are trying to hawk their books, blogs, newsletters, and shows in a very cynical misleading of the public. These people are the same ones who want to regulate your health, your romantic live, your education, your environment in their own cynical way to control you. They set up numerous straw men to attack ala Rush Limbaugh. It is the old adage that the complainer will give away his own narcissistic concerns. The people complaining about being controlled are the ones who would really love to control you themselves
Since when is considering the public health and welfare 'bowing down to total control'. Obviously the biggest complainers are trying to hawk their books, blogs, newsletters, and shows in a very cynical misleading of the public. These people are the same ones who want to regulate your health, your romantic live, your education, your environment in their own cynical way to control you. They set up numerous straw men to attack ala Rush Limbaugh. It is the old adage that the complainer will give away his own narcissistic concerns. The people complaining about being controlled are the ones who would really love to control you themselves
5
Will Rogers said "Everyone's talking about the weather but no one is doing anything about it." Glad this time that they talked and did something about it. I think we're more griping at ourselves and our reactions like emptying gas stations; ransacking the groceries; still paying off the generator purchase.
6
Just plain silly to start your column with a gratuitous swipe at Tom Brady. I was surprised and disappointed at your lapse of judgment, apparently for the sake of a very cheap laugh.
Oh, Curtis, I think Tommy can take it. He's a big boy.
You, however, strike me as more than a bit childish.
You, however, strike me as more than a bit childish.
12
I think Mr. Bruni has it about right. We got lucky (Nantucket didn't, nor did Montauk). The worse we treat our elected officials when they make tough but reasonable calls, the worse elected officials we'll get.
41
The search for perfection-be it in weather reactions, or the perfect holiday, the perfect mate-will be the ruin of our society.
So what, they got it wrong-the only ones hurt by that are the tipped workers and those without paid days off.
So open your wallets a little, all you New Yorkers who enjoyed a day off.
So what, they got it wrong-the only ones hurt by that are the tipped workers and those without paid days off.
So open your wallets a little, all you New Yorkers who enjoyed a day off.
I wonder, Mr. B., if the tone in your op-ed, reflects how some of us react to New Yorkers who "are in your face"?
As a native Californian, I am sometimes aware that our dislike of NYC arrogance may compare with the typical Frenchman's reaction to the all too common rudeness of some Parisians.
However, your chutzpah is usually admirable; that is, a typical New Yorker stands up for what is "right".
Mazeltov!
As a native Californian, I am sometimes aware that our dislike of NYC arrogance may compare with the typical Frenchman's reaction to the all too common rudeness of some Parisians.
However, your chutzpah is usually admirable; that is, a typical New Yorker stands up for what is "right".
Mazeltov!
1
You might want to check the weather forecast for next Sunday night into Monday. The current prediction is for up to 12 inches of snow for NYC, and about an inch for Long Island, so - let's see how we handle that situation.
The question I would like answered is about the transit system. If indeed the storm had been as predicted, would it have been hazardous to run the subways - at least the part that runs underground?
The whole topic is an abundance of silliness!
I woke on Tuesday grateful beyond measure that our storm wasn't any worse. I also was so relieved that my house and my neighborhood on Long Island didn't lose power. (Dealing with loss of power due to an October megastorm is a far cry from what it would have been like with 20 degree temps.) I feel terrible for those farther north and east; they didn't have the luxury of my gratitude on Tuesday. I can't believe people are so snarky as to gripe. Wake up, go outside, shovel what fell, and enjoy the rest of your day. If we'd had the totals predicted for us, who knows what we'd be going through.
9
They never shut down the subways in Moscow or Montreal, why do it in NYC? I can see limiting vehicles on the roads to make it easier and faster to plow them but shutting down the subways is absurd. A PC move designed to show that one clueless pol is more concerned than another, with predictable results.
5
And how exactly is it PC???
1
You want the 'freedom' to go about at public expense (subway) and if you get into trouble have the public (police, paramedics) bail you out? Can't stay home for one day. (I know it is a burden of many people when they miss a day's work and a day's pay).
3
This is one time I am on the side of the politicians. They made the right call, making public safety paramount. If they had not, and the storm lived up to expectations, it might have been a tragic story instead of this pathetic gotcha moment. Ask anyone who has been stranded on a freezing highway for hours. Sometimes a simple thank you is in order.
45
Re "New York is a nanny state"--without a "nanny" or a state, people must take care of themselves.
Why do red state folks take "nanny state" swipes at blue states? Has anyone in the red states noticed that the blue states are the rich, successful states?
5
You can't have it both ways. People were hysterical before the storm, wiping out grocery stores, etc. I rode my bicycle to work, and had breakfast in Chinatown. What's your excuse?
“Everyone braced for the worst, which is a whole lot smarter than hoping for the best.” Perfect, Frank Bruni! Perfect! De Blasio, Cuomo, and Christie got it right.
I am going to post on my wall, "Brace for the worst. It's smarter than hoping for the best."
I am going to post on my wall, "Brace for the worst. It's smarter than hoping for the best."
11
1
"Nuanced environment" is precisely what we have slowly throttled to death over many years...and now, with social media, where every opinion—regardless of how blatantly ignorant—seems to hold equal weight, the social dialogue and so-called analysis become more moronic and craven by the hour.
2
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
4
In 111 years of operation, the NYC subway system had never been shut down due to a possible (or actual) major snow storm. Not ever! Why the Governor had to go hysterical on the City and close down its single major means of transportation is a complete mystery to me. It's probably even more of a mystery to the hundreds of thousands of low-income people who almost certainly lost at least a day's pay due to a not-of-their-own-making inability to reach their jobs by the Poor Man's Means of Transport -the NYC subway system. It was a shameful reaction to a mere possibility - but even if NYC had suffered the full impact of that possibility, the subway trains would still have been able to run at some semblance of effectiveness. We have every right to gripe about not being allowed to travel anywhere in NYC after 11pm this past Monday. We could just as well have been living in 1650 as in 2015 under such conditions as were imposed upon us by a Political Hysteric. Frank, your columns are more or less one man's perpetual gripe. Please allow us the same right, especially in the place of what we naturally assume to be a right to travel within the city where we pay both our taxes and fairly steep subway fares. And repeat the following to yourself, over and over: "The New York City subway system should never be shut down during a snow storm, the New York City subway system should never be shut down during a snow storm, the New York City subway system..........." Feels good, doesn't it?
4
and who exactly would drive the trains you're so desperate to ride in a snowstorm? especially in the elevated sections? Remember 2010 when LIRR trains were actually stuck to the track? What would someone do once they reached the part of the line that is above ground? Shuttles? Anyone????
3
Because of the insatiable demand for continuous media content, as well as the insatiable demand to offer one's opinions through available channels (which I am now availing myself of), every event - including those that are visited upon us by nature and cannot be controlled - must be examined and reexamined in excruciating detail. Did we do our absolute best? Whose fault was it? Was somebody trying to put one over on us? Like a football instant reply that must be endlessly repeated from every angle (see where his leg broke?), round and round we go. I'm already prepared to move on from Juno-gate, and ask the more burning question - who is Frank Bruni trying to cover for, anyway. That's right, I'm talkin' Bruni-gate here.
1
"Was it really necessary, at 11 p.m. Monday, to take the extraordinary step of shutting down the subways? Especially when it turned out that some trains were still running, empty, as a way of maintaining the system?"
If the goal is to discourage people from being far away from their apartment/hotel, etc. and potentially getting stuck then yes, shutting down the subways was a good idea. A few people exercising poor judgment during a dangerous weather event can endanger others including police and rescue personnel.
If the goal is to discourage people from being far away from their apartment/hotel, etc. and potentially getting stuck then yes, shutting down the subways was a good idea. A few people exercising poor judgment during a dangerous weather event can endanger others including police and rescue personnel.
31
Mr. Bruni,
I don't know what you mean that we "dodged icy doom." New York City got 3 feet of snow on Tuesday, the biggest snowstorm in the history of our town. A consensus of scientists predicted it. Anyone who says otherwise is just one of those "science deniers."
I don't know what you mean that we "dodged icy doom." New York City got 3 feet of snow on Tuesday, the biggest snowstorm in the history of our town. A consensus of scientists predicted it. Anyone who says otherwise is just one of those "science deniers."
6
Just look at the beating that Atlanta took over not being prepared for the storm. The governors are going to be second guessed no matter what decision they made.
I believe that what they did was a better option than being stuck in a car for hours in the storm.
I believe that what they did was a better option than being stuck in a car for hours in the storm.
18
So us spoiled brats should just stop our whining right now and say thank you to our fearless leaders?
Leadership doesn’t mean always trying to stay two feet ahead of the latest wave of panic; it sometimes means being the voice that calms fears while it prepares. If we’re in a bidding war in which the most alarmist is always the most credible, where are we going to end up – hiding under the bed in the basement with our helmets on?
While the damage done to the transit system by a snowstorm would undoubtedly have had high costs, so did locking it down; the only difference was that the risk of the latter was 100%. If we’re going to be grownups, as you suggested, we ought to start by recognizing that you CAN be too careful.
Leadership doesn’t mean always trying to stay two feet ahead of the latest wave of panic; it sometimes means being the voice that calms fears while it prepares. If we’re in a bidding war in which the most alarmist is always the most credible, where are we going to end up – hiding under the bed in the basement with our helmets on?
While the damage done to the transit system by a snowstorm would undoubtedly have had high costs, so did locking it down; the only difference was that the risk of the latter was 100%. If we’re going to be grownups, as you suggested, we ought to start by recognizing that you CAN be too careful.
1
All insurance is a 100% loss of a limited amount to hedge against a much greater potential loss. There was little cost to the subway system by shutting it down, but damage by the storm could have been much greater.
The governor and mayor were calm in their remarks -- the serious potential of the storm was based on the best forecasting methods, and it was horrendous further east.
Be grateful that the city was spared worse consequences. Those complaining today would be complaining the loudest had a tragedy occurred.
The governor and mayor were calm in their remarks -- the serious potential of the storm was based on the best forecasting methods, and it was horrendous further east.
Be grateful that the city was spared worse consequences. Those complaining today would be complaining the loudest had a tragedy occurred.
9
In January 1979 I had a business appointment in New York City at 9:00 a.m. It was right across the street from Grand Central Station. I was coming in from Hartsdale and took the 8:00 a.m. train which was scheduled to arrive at 8:45 in plenty of time to walk across the street to my meeting. All morning from 5:30 a.m. on, all the news media were telling us a big storm was coming but it would not hit until after rush hour leading everyone to believe it was okay not to stay home. It hit with a vengeance about 8:10 and was so strong it took four hours to get to Grand Central. When I arrived very few trains were running. I managed to get one back to Hartsdale which was packed like a NYC subway and took three hours to get there. I wish the Mayor had ruled on the side of caution which is always the better course whether the after-the-fact gripers like it or not.
13
The next time a mayor or governor thinks about an impending storm of any sort, he or she should remember this: closing the streets to vehicular traffic should be a once in a 100 yrs. event.
Here's what the mayor seems to have done: added up all the potentials that were forecast and guessed at and decided to take one of the most drastic actions possible.
If there had been three ft. of snow, a lot of cars and trucks would have been stranded on streets and roadways, making getting them open again more difficult and making ambulance and fire fighter travel on those streets impossible. But, we shouldn't think we have to prepare for an apocalypse every time CNN rolls the BREAKING NEWS graphic.
Next time, ASK people to stay off the streets after a certain hour. Bridges and tunnels into Manhattan could be made one way, out, as the snow falls and piles up. Then, at a pre-announced time, traffic could be banned, in this case say from 2 AM to 7 AM with an automatic re-opening unless announced otherwise.
I suspect the mayor was mainly thinking about the functions the city is expected to perform in a snow storm and protecting himself from a huge potential backlash. Voluntary cooperation is much better in a free society and "clamping down", like they did in Boston after the marathon bombing, can become an unfortunate habit, an easy, early one.
Tell everyone, also, look, things are not going to be perfect. Ask people to be patient. Even New Yorkers.
Doug Terry
Here's what the mayor seems to have done: added up all the potentials that were forecast and guessed at and decided to take one of the most drastic actions possible.
If there had been three ft. of snow, a lot of cars and trucks would have been stranded on streets and roadways, making getting them open again more difficult and making ambulance and fire fighter travel on those streets impossible. But, we shouldn't think we have to prepare for an apocalypse every time CNN rolls the BREAKING NEWS graphic.
Next time, ASK people to stay off the streets after a certain hour. Bridges and tunnels into Manhattan could be made one way, out, as the snow falls and piles up. Then, at a pre-announced time, traffic could be banned, in this case say from 2 AM to 7 AM with an automatic re-opening unless announced otherwise.
I suspect the mayor was mainly thinking about the functions the city is expected to perform in a snow storm and protecting himself from a huge potential backlash. Voluntary cooperation is much better in a free society and "clamping down", like they did in Boston after the marathon bombing, can become an unfortunate habit, an easy, early one.
Tell everyone, also, look, things are not going to be perfect. Ask people to be patient. Even New Yorkers.
Doug Terry
Voluntary cooperation is a great idea, as is common sense on the part of people during severe weather. But "voluntary cooperation" resulted in the humanitarian disaster in the New Orleans Superdome during Hurricane Katrina, while forced evacuation occasioned the breakup of families and the abandonment of thousands of pets as people were herded onto buses. It's a problem, to be sure.
10
I beg to differ with "P Brown". Having been in the New Orleans are during the passage of Katrina, but, also, having followed the situation closely before, during and after the storm, the Superdome was, as far as I know, the idea of city officials for people who did not have the means to get out of town. I happened to be in west-central Texas on the Thursday night when people were being herded into the Dome and, while not ascribing any great foresight to myself, I remember thinking: is that a good idea? What if the Dome falls in? What if it gets flooded? None of that happened, but the decision was nonetheless a disaster that might, in any case, have saved some lives.
It must be noted that in America we do not have "forced evacuation". To my knowledge, this has been found to be unconstitutional. We have what is called "mandatory evacuation" where people are told they must leave and told they will not be rescued in the middle of a hurricane and might not be rescued for days afterward. In America, we don't arrest people for making their own decisions, even poor ones.
It must be noted that in America we do not have "forced evacuation". To my knowledge, this has been found to be unconstitutional. We have what is called "mandatory evacuation" where people are told they must leave and told they will not be rescued in the middle of a hurricane and might not be rescued for days afterward. In America, we don't arrest people for making their own decisions, even poor ones.
3
Nothing "voluntary" works in an emergency. Nothing. If they had left lower Manhattan (below 14th Street) open on a voluntary basis not to enter it after 9/11, there would have been thousands moving through dangerous debris and a crime scene just for photos. It has to be enforceablely closed off. We applaud the governor for making the right decision based on the information that he had, it was correct and showed real leadership, rather than the wishy-washy, puerile escapism of the mayor, who claimed that he had no control over shutting down the subway. We have a great leader in Gov Cuomo, and we depend on him to save us from the constant drip of rudderless incompetence in City Hall.
2
Juno did exactly what the forecasters said it would do. It simply did it further to the east than it could have been. Instead of 18 inches in Philadelphia and 2 feet in NYC, the snow fell over the Atlantic Ocean. When the storm on its way north hit the landmasses that jut further east - Long Island, Cape Cod and the islands, greater Boston - they got whacked.
No complaints. We got lucky.
No complaints. We got lucky.
25
Comparing New York to chronic weather extremes in other areas, such as Moscow, Buffalo, Siberia, Antarctica is pointless. If New York gets 2" of snow it's a breeze, not so in L.A. or Atlanta. They aren't equipped and they aren't experienced with the substance.
Your dad is bigger than my dad...so what?
Your dad is bigger than my dad...so what?
1
Gripe away, people. Be sure to hold the authorities blameless next time inadequate precautions are taken.
72
The reality is that cities are interdependent, very fragile entities. Storm Juno, a blizzard storm that was could have hit here in NYC was dangerous and a killer. Yesterday’s storm, out in the Atlantic, was close to hurricane force - - remember Sandy anyone?! Had it moved west a degree or two, we could have been slammed just as weather forecasters were warning. But like hurricanes, predicting their movements is difficult. I am glad that Mayor de Blasio and Governor Cuomo stepped up to the plate to ensure all our safety. I’m not among those who cast negative comments about efforts that were put into place. Had the storm hit us as it might have, if the Mayor and the Governor had not taken these steps, lives would have been lost and tragic results would be everywhere.
Thank goodness the storm wasn't bad here in NYC. Beyond the city there are many for whom the storm was terrible. I hope that things get better for everyone soon.
Thank goodness the storm wasn't bad here in NYC. Beyond the city there are many for whom the storm was terrible. I hope that things get better for everyone soon.
10
One thing the travel ban did do, it significantly cut down on the number of power outages, which always happen even when there is a little bit of snow on the ground because people overestimate their ability to drive when the coefficient of friction is reduced by crystallized dihydrogen monoxide.
2
Maybe you see observations as howls. I saw nothing but reports. I saw one person look at a closed subway yesterday morning and go, "oh, still closed" and turn around.
The bigger story is how Manhattan does not house any business owner. 20 years ago, the guy who managed the market or owned the deli, walked through the snow and opened his store. Now it takes an army to open a Trader Joe's or Whole Foods or Home Depot. These places have not only driven small ownership out of Manhattan but the army that operate them daily can barely survive closer than Maspeth.
I walked by 3 pet related stores yesterday with dogs howling for food at 7AM. There's a story there, Mr. Bruni
The bigger story is how Manhattan does not house any business owner. 20 years ago, the guy who managed the market or owned the deli, walked through the snow and opened his store. Now it takes an army to open a Trader Joe's or Whole Foods or Home Depot. These places have not only driven small ownership out of Manhattan but the army that operate them daily can barely survive closer than Maspeth.
I walked by 3 pet related stores yesterday with dogs howling for food at 7AM. There's a story there, Mr. Bruni
4
Moscow's mass transit doesn't get flooded by storm surge from offshore hurricanes.
7
The only thing left for many people these days to be happy about is them being unhappy. This situation was the perfect vehicle for these types of people to feel good about themselves . . . for whatever that's worth.
4
Monday morning quarterbacking is the rule, not the exception. In the game of politics, what counts is being right, not being wise.
2
A typical American today expects perfection from others but not from themselves. They like to whine. Be happy New Yorkers that you were spared the huge snowfall and go about your business.
10
Think of it as a good practice run.
5
I'm sitting here in Kew Gardens (Queens, not its English name-sake) looking at the sunshine. I can see that about 8 inches fell, I dug out my car yesterday evening -- no big deal.
But then I'm from Albany -- even 2 feet of snow isn't such a big deal around Albany.
I've listened to the news and all the kvetching ... and there's only one issue in all of that whining that I do think deserves attention: why did the subways shut down?
But I think it needs to be turned around, why did the subways need to be shut down? The subway system is vital to NYC; keeping the subways running is part of making the city more robust generally. The issues here are engineering and operation and potentially construction, the subways need to function through snowfall ... why can't they?
Other subway systems do, the obvious example being Moscow. The Russians don't shut down a subway system over a foot of snow! But then neither do the Finns (Helsinki), the Swedes (Stockholm) ... even the Brits keep most of the London system up through snow.
The issue here isn't the decision to shut the subway down -- the issue is why was it even a question/decision?
But then I'm from Albany -- even 2 feet of snow isn't such a big deal around Albany.
I've listened to the news and all the kvetching ... and there's only one issue in all of that whining that I do think deserves attention: why did the subways shut down?
But I think it needs to be turned around, why did the subways need to be shut down? The subway system is vital to NYC; keeping the subways running is part of making the city more robust generally. The issues here are engineering and operation and potentially construction, the subways need to function through snowfall ... why can't they?
Other subway systems do, the obvious example being Moscow. The Russians don't shut down a subway system over a foot of snow! But then neither do the Finns (Helsinki), the Swedes (Stockholm) ... even the Brits keep most of the London system up through snow.
The issue here isn't the decision to shut the subway down -- the issue is why was it even a question/decision?
1
The difference between NY and the other cities you mention is that much of the NY "subway" system is not underground. Much of the system outside of Manhattan is open (in Brooklyn, at least, open and below street level) and/or elevated. So really bad weather has produced really bad shutdowns.
7
Hey Boys and Girls. It's not a perfect world. Sometimes you're right; sometimes you're wrong. Sometimes you eat the bear; sometimes the bear eats you.
Enjoy the happy surprise today; there are sure to be many unhappy surprises in the future.
It's all called life on earth.
Enjoy the happy surprise today; there are sure to be many unhappy surprises in the future.
It's all called life on earth.
4
Natural disasters are politically dangerous. Governor Dukakis (yes, that one) was turned out of office because the good people of the Commonwealth of Mass. decided that he had mishandled the '79 storm. They returned him (to lead the Mass miracle) the next time they had the chance.
While I understand your column Mr. Bruni, isn't the only necessary response something along these lines - "The meteorologists forecasted a blizzard based on their available models, which have worked correctly before. There is always an element of uncertainty in prediction - or we would all be Gods. Given the forecast, we took a responsible, cautious approach, what would you have done instead? Do some thinking before you start piling up the rocks for the stoning." Case closed.
8
I'm mystified....don't the Gripers recall people being trapped on subway cars when they traveled above ground? Weren't there sick people or at least thirsty, hungry, cold people stuck there? Don't people recall ambulances that couldn't get to sick people because other people's cars stalled in the street?
I'm not a New Yorker but I read the Times and I sure remember reading about those events. I think the Gripers should either get accredited as meteorologists so they can do a better job, or just give it a rest.
I'm not a New Yorker but I read the Times and I sure remember reading about those events. I think the Gripers should either get accredited as meteorologists so they can do a better job, or just give it a rest.
21
Bill de Blasio "I will always err on the side of safety and caution." Except when it comes to cracking down on anti-police protesters illegally blocking traffic throughout the city impairing ambulance, fire, police and other emergency services. Then he will err on the side of appeasing Al Sharpton.
3
I'm no fan of the Mayor, but even I can't fault him for the storm preparations, (other than maybe he leave out the word "historic", or at least not use it in nearly every sentence when the next big storm comes).
The frenzy generated by constant weather reporting and news broadcasts is the real issue related to this storm. In an effort to "outforecast" and outdo their competition, every forecaster I saw, and you couldn't not see them, used words such as historic, unprecendented, and possibly the worst ever. This is the same type of reporting that we see over every story, political misstep or law enforcement matter. It only results in the same type of overreactions.
The frenzy generated by constant weather reporting and news broadcasts is the real issue related to this storm. In an effort to "outforecast" and outdo their competition, every forecaster I saw, and you couldn't not see them, used words such as historic, unprecendented, and possibly the worst ever. This is the same type of reporting that we see over every story, political misstep or law enforcement matter. It only results in the same type of overreactions.
2
The open-season on Mayor De Blasio today is nothing compared with what it would have been had he underplayed the more severe storm that was forecast. Then, he would have been saddled not only with criticism but also with responsibility for gridlock, accident, injury and probably loss of life.
One commenting genius suggested yesterday that the Mayor's response to the storm watch was cover to advance his left-wing agenda on climate change. De Blasio must have had some magical inside info into the error of virtually all weather forecasting models.
They're out there. They rant. They vote. Some of them are armed. A few of those actually shoot at any deemed provocation. All of them are paranoid and angry.
And by the way, who can prove that Governor Christie was really in NJ? He could have been anywhere in the USA necessary for toadying up Mr. Manybucks for campaign cash.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
One commenting genius suggested yesterday that the Mayor's response to the storm watch was cover to advance his left-wing agenda on climate change. De Blasio must have had some magical inside info into the error of virtually all weather forecasting models.
They're out there. They rant. They vote. Some of them are armed. A few of those actually shoot at any deemed provocation. All of them are paranoid and angry.
And by the way, who can prove that Governor Christie was really in NJ? He could have been anywhere in the USA necessary for toadying up Mr. Manybucks for campaign cash.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
9
It's time to retire the myth of the "tough" New Yorker. We are a bunch of whiney little brats with no grasp of or tolerance for reality, except for reality shows. Posting outraged comments on Facebook or giving the finger to the 90 pound model who grabbed the last bottle of wheatgrass extract at Organic Avenue does not a tough guy make.
7
Only made it to the second paragraph. Don't forget that Brady and the Patriots performed better in the second half against the Colts with fully inflated footballs!
2
Like Ebola -- it's going to kill everyone.
Like ISIS -- they're going to kill everyone.
Like Guatemalan children-- they're not only going to kill everyone, they're going to rape and rob everyone as well.
We LOVE our fear-filled fantasies. After all, they're a whole lot more exciting than THINKING things through realistically.
Like ISIS -- they're going to kill everyone.
Like Guatemalan children-- they're not only going to kill everyone, they're going to rape and rob everyone as well.
We LOVE our fear-filled fantasies. After all, they're a whole lot more exciting than THINKING things through realistically.
2
Your "realistic thinking" is better at predicting the weather than meteorologists? Well then step on right up and forecast for us, and you'll be a billionaire in no time.
2
To summarize many of these comments-- weather is now a political issue. Who knew that snow removal is liberal?
2
I've been in Moscow winters many times and the metro does always run, but, unlike some of NYC lines, it's entirely deep underground. It was used as air raid shelters in WWII.
7
I am no fan of either Deblasio, Cuomo, or Chris Christie but they made the right call in this case. For a change!
1
I dare say, New York dodged the icy bullet, may not be so lucky next time. There are many 'wintry' days ahead.
1
Very balanced editorial. How true. You're faulted if you don't make preparations and faulted if you do. But!! This grandstanding about the weather by our meteorologists, this turning a ubiquitous aspect of nature, which in the past was something you woke up to and then plodded through, into theater can really be too much. How many hours do we need to know that it's snowing in Boston, and Connecticut and New York? How many times measure the density of the snow? Bob Dylan famously said we don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. That also applies to snow. Granted, there's information that needs to be disseminated on the hour to drivers (of which I'm not) to people living in rural areas (which I don't) and to meet a host of contingencies, governmental and otherwise, which I may be spared because of my lifestyle. I don't mean to undercut the importance of crucial and timely information. But quite frankly I saw more snow on CNN and MSNBC than I navigated through on the way to the grocery. That said, where else can you find such brave, smiling faces as those reporting while the snow is coming down. One poor girl on CNN got an icy flake in her eye which she said was not fun. I really suggest the next time protective goggles are distributed to these besieged weather warriors.
4
Frank,
The next time you search for a football metaphor dealing with "inflation", I suggest you use Aaron Rodgers throwing an overinflated ball, since both the snow story and "deflate gate" are clearly, well...overinflated.
Joe Morello
The next time you search for a football metaphor dealing with "inflation", I suggest you use Aaron Rodgers throwing an overinflated ball, since both the snow story and "deflate gate" are clearly, well...overinflated.
Joe Morello
1
Start spreadin' the news, New York, New York. If any of your New England neighbors find themselves buried in an overabundance of snow, or have some yourselves you'd like to get rid of, consider shipping it to California. As you may have heard, we're dying of thirst out here.
In the meantime, overpreparing, even panicking a little, for a disaster that ends up not happening should only be the worst thing that ever happened to people. As New Yorkers know only too well, the alternative is much worse.
In the meantime, overpreparing, even panicking a little, for a disaster that ends up not happening should only be the worst thing that ever happened to people. As New Yorkers know only too well, the alternative is much worse.
10
If only California had your advantage of having some idea beforehand that a natural disaster may strike. Just be happy you don't have earthquakes.
8
The problem is not that the forecast was wrong. The problem was that even had it been right, it was an exaggeration to call this a snowpocalypse or whatever made-up term you prefer. It's just two feet of snow. Sure, you can't drive on it, but you just call it a a snow day and that's it. In New England, I've been through plenty of two-foot snow "storms" that didn't get much advertising and people just brushed them off as annoyances. But here we whine about disaster with just a few inches. In Buffalo they get six feet and they don't cry that much about it even thought that truly is a significant amount of snow.
The borough of Manhattan: 1.6 million residents in 33 square miles, expanding to 3-4 million people physically there during the average workday. The city of Buffalo: 258,000 residents in 52 square miles. The effect of any given quantity of snow in Manhattan is exponentially greater for Manhattan than for Buffalo. I'm rather surprised that someone who claims to live in NYC doesn't recognize the sheer density of people with whom you share your space, and what a logistical nightmare disaster preparation is with that level of population density.
5
Kind of strange column, noticeable because Frank's columns are generally so interesting. I guess it seems a bit too solipsistic, big storms are the trivia of life. A bit like traffic accidents. Only of interest to people driving on the same road.
It's time to retire the myth of the "tough" New Yorker and acknowledge reality. We are a bunch of whiney little brats with no grasp of reality, except for reality shows. Posting outraged comments on Facebook or giving the finger to the model who grabbed the last bottle of wheatgrass extract at Organic Avenue does not a tough guy make.
News Flash: New York City spared major winter storm! City safe! Residents furious!
139
These are all great points after a good column. I think the fresh start everyone got back into around noon yesterday will continue to look better as time marches on... BUT THE SUBWAYS!!!
This is New York. This is January. Why were the subways taken out of commission? That really made no sense Governor; none!
This is New York. This is January. Why were the subways taken out of commission? That really made no sense Governor; none!
A crushing event barely missed NYC - and people cimplain?
I am sure people along the shores of Massachusetts would just LOVE to trade places. You can have their flooded homes, collapsed roofs, and ruined lives. They will happily take your minor inconveniences from a lucky near miss.
You would think that the region that went through Hurricane Sandy not too long ago would have since figured out that the only appropriate response to such a missed calamity in the area would be... Gratitude.
I am sure people along the shores of Massachusetts would just LOVE to trade places. You can have their flooded homes, collapsed roofs, and ruined lives. They will happily take your minor inconveniences from a lucky near miss.
You would think that the region that went through Hurricane Sandy not too long ago would have since figured out that the only appropriate response to such a missed calamity in the area would be... Gratitude.
7
People LOVE to be angry and blame others. It is a sad observation, but true. This is just the latest venue to act out those addictive feelings and behaviors; for all too many, the motto seems to be 'Never miss an opportunity to be miserable and blame someone else!'
2
Better safe than sorry. Hats off to Cuomo and de Blasio for making a decision, and to the MTA, Sanitation, FDNY and NYPD for being able to shut the city down and restart it on such short notice.
3
"...because weather is an easy news story to cover: straightforward, theatrical. The correspondents get to wear their ski-chalet best and to roar over the wind’s whisper."
And a NYT columnist gets to write a retrospective on the weather. 'Whatever!', as the kids say. At least you stayed warm, Mr. Bruni. I wonder how the folks on Nantucket feel.
And a NYT columnist gets to write a retrospective on the weather. 'Whatever!', as the kids say. At least you stayed warm, Mr. Bruni. I wonder how the folks on Nantucket feel.
Unfortunately, since 9/11 we live in the Republic of Manipulated Fear. (Thanks, Dick Cheney!) This is exacerbated by the dumbing-down of America (yes, even New Yorkers!) by 24/7 media seeking "content" between ads. This tends to drown out any attempts at prudent behavior, or "prudent" behavior is so cross-mixed with other things (such as politics) that it's hard to separate the prudent from that necessary for re-election.
4
Youdhad me until you tried to be cute. The Brady reference wasn't really needed here and that jury is still out. You undercut yoir own oped piece byaalluding to anther rish to judgment.
What if people griped and the media ignored it?
Is there anything more quotidian and banal than people complaining about everything? Somebody does something and people complain. Ho hum. Of course Twitter, comment sections, Facebook and so on encourage this but as adults it's our job to contribute as little as possible to the cacophony.
Of course we all think that what we have to say is more clever than what anyone else has to say and of course we have to get it out there. I'm guilty of that sometimes, too. My resolution is to do better and do less.
Is there anything more quotidian and banal than people complaining about everything? Somebody does something and people complain. Ho hum. Of course Twitter, comment sections, Facebook and so on encourage this but as adults it's our job to contribute as little as possible to the cacophony.
Of course we all think that what we have to say is more clever than what anyone else has to say and of course we have to get it out there. I'm guilty of that sometimes, too. My resolution is to do better and do less.
2
Better safe than sorry. NYC got lucky. Hats off to Cuomo and de Blasio for making the decision to shut the city down, and most of all to the MTA, Sanitation, FDNY and NYPD for being able to pull it off and restart it so quickly.
To those who complain, shut up and count your blessings.
To those who complain, shut up and count your blessings.
8
There was something completely new with this storm; shutting down the subways and railroads in advance of a snowstorm. First time in the 110 year history of the subways the system was completely shut down because of snow.
Cuomo, not the mayor did it. The plans are to run the underground portions local, the elevated as long as you can and the cuts up until the snow reaches twelve inches. The railroads should run till the snow reaches one foot.
We have had plenty of big snow storms before, a few equal to the predictions that never happened.
Paralizing a metropolitan area of 30 million so a few dont get stuck is rediculous.
Cuomo, not the mayor did it. The plans are to run the underground portions local, the elevated as long as you can and the cuts up until the snow reaches twelve inches. The railroads should run till the snow reaches one foot.
We have had plenty of big snow storms before, a few equal to the predictions that never happened.
Paralizing a metropolitan area of 30 million so a few dont get stuck is rediculous.
2
You'd be singing a different tune if YOU were the one who got stuck. Stop whining and be grateful nothing bad happened to you.
3
Based on the reports about incoming doom, Government had no choice then to act as it did, even though in hind sight it was over kill. There are two kinds of snow falls ,there is the 2" to 6" snow fall that most adults hate, with it's ice & slush, & then there is the blizzard that if you respect nature, puts in awe of the majesty of the planet we live on, & in spite of the discomfort we have to live with, we will always boast about the storm of 2015 that unfortunately disappointed us.
2
The weather' terrible and there's not enough of it.
And from where we did get that storm, let me join gemli asking the TV to report on more than a video that would look good. There were roads under water, cell phone areas down, Logan runway plowing issues, and emergency phone numbers that would have been helpful. What they reported was the tiny town that always floods with a small population far from a major highway. That said, anyone in NYC want to come up and help me dig out. Can't get out of my front door with a four foot drift.
3
Funny you end your column with the Henry Blodget quote, I live in lower Westchester and was listening to the local radio ( a Fox affiliate ! ) and a woman had called in, complaining about the local authorities ( in all the villages and towns here) as well as the NY authorities for closing everything in preparation. She said " you know why? because we live in a nanny state!" and then soon after without a thought of irony she complained to the host that ALL the streets were not cleared completely of snow yet! - this was around 8AM.
She wanted her 'nanny' to come plow I guess?
She wanted her 'nanny' to come plow I guess?
5
Griping is human nature. If the storm had hit and the city had NOT been shut down, the griping would have been even worse, but more varied. There is no way to 'win' when it comes to the weather, or running a huge city, the vast majority of the time.
6
I would imagine a snow band could skip a 22 mile piece of property. (The length of Manhattan, if my memory is correct.) Sometimes, the town 20 miles north of us will get 6 inches and we won't get a thing ------ the people calling for heads are funny!
1
We have the best climate and weather forecasting ever available, yet we are still carping about the results?
I think I would say that Americans like that are a bunch of thoughtless whiners!
I think I would say that Americans like that are a bunch of thoughtless whiners!
3
Generally of course, one is 'better safe than sorry'. But there are limits. For over 100 years, we are told, the subways in NYC (as elsewhere) were not shut down in such circumstances. So the answer to the question posed here, "Was it really necessary, at 11 p.m. Monday, to take the extraordinary step of shutting down the subways", is clearly NO. And closing the subways is not inconsequential, nor is it risk-averse. Costs, too, have consequences. Not being able to move from place to place has consequences. It was quite simply the wrong call, and predictably so.
Also agree with others here who bemoan media coverage (local and especially, cable - see, CNN). This was largely due to the Manhattan-centric coverage - one doesn't really need a weather model to predict that a January blizzard will be worse in Montauk than in Central Park. Cameras mounted in cars driving up and down Broadway on the Upper West Side are an obscenity - but after all, CNN is based at Columbus Circle, so for THEM it was cost-free coverage.
As for the weather models themselves, it is quite untrue that these were entirely defective. The newest American model nailed it in location and amount. The models are very good, but do not yet have the computing power or time to come up with enough simulations runs to get the right answers for real time forecasting. That will improve in the future, but I am betting the cable news guys will still be out on the streets in their silly tuques.
Also agree with others here who bemoan media coverage (local and especially, cable - see, CNN). This was largely due to the Manhattan-centric coverage - one doesn't really need a weather model to predict that a January blizzard will be worse in Montauk than in Central Park. Cameras mounted in cars driving up and down Broadway on the Upper West Side are an obscenity - but after all, CNN is based at Columbus Circle, so for THEM it was cost-free coverage.
As for the weather models themselves, it is quite untrue that these were entirely defective. The newest American model nailed it in location and amount. The models are very good, but do not yet have the computing power or time to come up with enough simulations runs to get the right answers for real time forecasting. That will improve in the future, but I am betting the cable news guys will still be out on the streets in their silly tuques.
2
Isn't it amazing how accurate hindsight is? Please do enlighten us as to the dreadful consequences that resulted from shutting down the subways for a night, other than inconveniencing you, that is.
3
Agreed to a point. Cuomo did not have to stand at a podium all day long with no tie, his 2 top buttons undone and looking like he just ran the triathlon like only a real man could accomplish. Clearly he needed a positive "look".
I don't understand why everyone didn't just enjoy the time off work. What's wrong with you people?
6
If I were living paycheck to paycheck, or owned a small business with razor-thin margins, I might not be relaxed enough to enjoy that unexpected day off.
1
No good deed goes unpunished.
3
You are exactly right. Monday morning quarterbacks, every single one.
1
It's the weather, folks! There's no way to predict that with any accuracy and I'm willing to bet those who are complaining would have complained even more loudly had the "nanny state" not been cautious and several feet of snow had seriously--and dangerously--disrupted their lives.
1
My 85 year old Swiss mother said to me yesterday, "you call this a storm? We had snow that you couldn't open your door for two days. Stay inside, let the plows do their job, make some soup."
4
Sorry Frank, we're already looking for replacements, the storm was just a godsend. Let's pile on until we can get some new gomers to rag on. I don't know about anyone else, but I miss the guillotine.
Pitch perfect Frank. But couldn't you have thrown us gripers at least small lean bone to chew on? (I guess that is a gripe. Sorry.)
1
Today as the sun comes out.. be alerted that the planet will be bombared by Gamma rays.. Put on your sunglasses.. Today as the sun comes out the air will
be infultrated by crabon monoxide.. breathe anyway… today as he sun comes out and automobiles are active .. pay attetion to the crossing lights.. especially at 42nd and 5th ave… Somewhere on the planet a natural disaster will occvur and folks who are not aware or unprepared will be hurt or die.. We do what we can to protect the people.. What more should we expect? Say thank you.
be infultrated by crabon monoxide.. breathe anyway… today as he sun comes out and automobiles are active .. pay attetion to the crossing lights.. especially at 42nd and 5th ave… Somewhere on the planet a natural disaster will occvur and folks who are not aware or unprepared will be hurt or die.. We do what we can to protect the people.. What more should we expect? Say thank you.
I prefer de Blasio's better-safe-than-sorry reaction to Bloomberg's dialled-in-from-Bermuda failure. That cost lives. This was just an inconvenience.
6
I know it's a cliché, but better safe than sorry, for crying out loud! I grew up in NY and lived in MN for close to twenty years. If the predictions had been right, that would have been a dangerous disaster. Why the heck are people upset because the storm missed them? I don't get it. They should be celebrating. Look what it's doing to those that are bearing the brunt of it now. Would you want that and be unprepared for it? Sometimes you gotta wonder if people just have to have something to complain about no matter what. I'd be dancing in the street if I was still living there. After living through absolutely horrible weather in both states, how about a HALLELUJAH? It MISSED you! Making good public safety a political issue is kind of sad.
12
Absolutely right. The last paragraph in particular is on point.
If there's one thing I am convinced of after this storm - and particularly reading the NYT commentariat - it's that the vast majority of people are nincompoops and whiners with defective logic chips.
If there's one thing I am convinced of after this storm - and particularly reading the NYT commentariat - it's that the vast majority of people are nincompoops and whiners with defective logic chips.
6
Americans don't like piling on and that's what Bruni did today. Maybe it's a New York thing.
He did exactly the opposite, actually.
3
It is easy to gripe after the fact. True. But, there must be some common ground between meteorologists super-hyping doom for ratings and waiting to see what is clearer nearer to the storm track. Somewhere between E-Bowling and Fizz Gate.
Better safe than sorry.
4
One thing is certain--despite the internet, television, radio and telephones, some people might not get the message that the weather is about to turn dangerous. So if those people go out when it looks safe but isn't, they could cause great harm or be killed.
Does anyone want to live through another hurricane Katrina?
Does anyone want to live through another hurricane Katrina?
5
What is amazing to me is that, with all the advancements in science, meteorologists are still so consistently wrong predicting the weather 24 hours in advance. I don't blame these guys for acting like Cassandra. But, I suspect that Chris Christie was really hoping that New Jersey would be pummeled by the snowstorm so he could start trumpeting how New Jersey is "stronger than the storm", once again, which is patently ridiculous.
3
Given the levels of uncertainty, you should be amazed that they get it so right. In Hong Kong, similar complaints about disruption because of a typhoon that only grazed the territory were answered by the Met office publishing a map showing the location of the storm's eye over time. It looked like a ball of wool that had been at the mercy of a kitten. A small adjustment in the track of a storm is impossible to predict and may well remain so for a long time.
3
Well, they really weren't wrong -- they called for a big storm and it happened. The center of it happened to be about fifty miles east of its predicted position, which may make it look like a bad forecast if that position is your frame of reference, but in the context of analyzing and predicting something as complex and (in some respects) chaotic as a coastal storm, I'd say they did quite well --
5
Exactly 1 year ago today politicians in GA dithered over closing schools and businesses until it was too late to react. NYC took the more responsible course.
15
Sorry, but these arguments of "damned if you do damned if you don't", do not wash here. We live in the Northeast. We have snowstorms now and then. In my 40 years of life, only two storms turned deadly, The Blizzard of 78 and Sandy. Everything in between was normal snow fall. The sickening 24-7 scripted news feed analyzing every insignificant detail to fill air time and pump up advertising dollars is criminal. It is absolutely a big lie and they know it. "The cold air will then seep into small cracks in your house and then the house gets cold" "We see people a couple of people just walked by, but otherwise it's pretty desolate out here." "There are no cars on RT 95, wow, a first!" Well when you ban by law this activity, of course there are no cars. The news babble and giggling and filler talk is infuriating. News should be just that, news! The Mayor simply isn't enough of a leader to take a stance and say, hey, I'm not going out and creating fear unless it's happening. One can prepare in case it does, but getting on TV and repeating overblown predictions make him and other leaders, stooges for private enterprise, the media. The danger beyond the annoyance....crying wolf. They have created a mistrust that will harm people in the future, all for money and a lack of true leadership.
The media and elected officials were working off the information from the National Weather Service. The media shamelessly overdramatized the situation (as they always do) but elected officials' actions were in line with what the forecasts were, er, forecasting. Manhattan got lucky. Be grateful.
1
A "true leader" listens to experts, considers the options, and decides---and maybe run the risk to err in the direction of being too cautious, if it saves lives. So, who cried wolf? No one. Your idea of a "good leader" is one that doesn't act. I'm glad you are not the leader, then.
3
Hey, this is a tempest in a teapot of day after second guessing. Better to err on the side of safety than be blindsided by a naive stance in the face of the possible. Better to go "with the clinch" and not get hit than be relaxed and experience a smack-down. So though my own thoughts leading into this were that the reports out of all the media orifices (and the concomitant political reaction) were getting borderline hysterical I will not judge them badly on it. They did what they thought best for the public in a "damned if you do; damned if you don't" situation. So what they goofed a bit? Relax, get over it and move on. This after the fact griping just ain't worth the energy....
John~
American Net'Zen
John~
American Net'Zen
1
I think it is fair to say that it is the failures of governments after storms that creates the fears and to a large degree, the hype, about what could happen when another is predicted. It is the failure of municipalities to protect infrastructure such as subway lines from storm surges that makes residents fearful of being stranded with no help or unable to travel after. It is the already happened failure of both utilities and governments to protect infrastructure and restore services promptly that makes citizens fear the loss of the power grid or water systems. It does not take much to stoke these fears in the age of constant media hype. It is almost as simple to second guess what should have been done but an individual trying to decide how to be prepared is basing those choices on what has already happened in other events. So it is for government officials tasked with preparing a whole municipality or state. And for the media, who nearly all seem delighted with the idea of yet another failure for them to dissect and discuss ad nausea after. It is never about what's coming, it is about what will happen after and who can be blamed for that.
I honestly don't believe public safety is the motivation for shutting down mass transit (which probably creates more hazards than it avoids) and roadways. I believe it is primarily motivated by politicians desire to score public-relations points through decisive action. Excellent opinion piece on the subject below.
http://nypost.com/2015/01/27/politicians-went-overboard-with-snowmageddo...
http://nypost.com/2015/01/27/politicians-went-overboard-with-snowmageddo...
1
The civil authorities did well to heed the meteorological experts and take necessary precautions. No harm done - other than some lost minor economic activity. What many people are having a good laugh at is the media race to the bottom with hyper-sensationalism. Essentially a battle for the ratings. What a circus.
2
60 years ago, before weather satellites and complex weather models, my family sat out a hurricane in a flimsy bungalow in Ocean Beach, New Jersey. A storm surge of 5-10 feet would have wiped us out; the alternative, however, was sitting out the storm in bumper-to-bumper traffic in a car on Routes 1 and 9 and there was little data on which to base a decision. We now have marvelous technology that provides that data and people complain that it is not perfect. Those people need to grow up.
7
If there is a real media bias it's sensationalism. News of pending storms of the century are great for garnering the eyes and mouse clicks of viewers and readers. The criticism of much of the media on this latest fizzled Apocalypse is valid because there wasn't the slightest bit of hedging by news and weather outlets when it's well known that predicting snow totals remains a difficult task for meteorologists, even in this age of weather satellites and supercomputer modeling. We heard unequivocally that this one would be one for the record books.
Blizzards are in no way comparable to hurricanes. The latter frequently results in significant loss of life and property damage while the worst of the former might be in lost revenue and taxes when businesses are shut down. To say that we "dodged a bullett" is silly. Greater metro NYC is not Montana. It's not like people are going to freeze or starve to death because their cars got stuck on Northern Blvd.
A better sense on the proportion of these events is in order the next time one of these weather events starts looming. But that wouldn't help with the Nielsen ratings.
Blizzards are in no way comparable to hurricanes. The latter frequently results in significant loss of life and property damage while the worst of the former might be in lost revenue and taxes when businesses are shut down. To say that we "dodged a bullett" is silly. Greater metro NYC is not Montana. It's not like people are going to freeze or starve to death because their cars got stuck on Northern Blvd.
A better sense on the proportion of these events is in order the next time one of these weather events starts looming. But that wouldn't help with the Nielsen ratings.
2
It's total no-win situation; either we are stuck and digging out in cold and dark or we have the inconvenience of taking strong and unusual steps to assure that the duration of misery is as short as possible. Since this was, here in the Metropolitan area, so much less than it might have been, we should give thanks to the Creator for sparing us.
2
The more they kept repeating that this was going to be a historic blizzard of historic proportions, the more I knew we were going to be OK. I've lived in New England most of my life so snow, ice, and blizzards come with the territory and we certainly have the equipment to deal with it.
So deal with it.
So deal with it.
I'd like to remind you that our mayor comes from your neck of the woods . His reaction is probably due to his distress over Deflate Gate. (He openly roots for all the Boston teams.)
I also wonder if all of New England has as many people as populate the few miles that constitute NYC; it makes a difference on how the problem should be handled, so why don't YOU get over it, and stop participating in that popular past time of your region: NYC-gazing and bashing. Go Seahawks!
I also wonder if all of New England has as many people as populate the few miles that constitute NYC; it makes a difference on how the problem should be handled, so why don't YOU get over it, and stop participating in that popular past time of your region: NYC-gazing and bashing. Go Seahawks!
You had me with "storm queen". And you were kind not to mention Christie's experience with shutting down roads and bridges. I don't think he was collecting i.o.u.s, he was giving them out to donors.
As for the "nanny state" guy be sure he's locked outside in the next storm.
As for the "nanny state" guy be sure he's locked outside in the next storm.
2
Hey New Yorkers, remember this:
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/christmas-blizzard-2010-snarls-new-y...
That's what happens when your city is unprepared for a snowstorm. Be glad that this storm prediction didn't pan out, and that your city government was ready this time just in case it did.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/christmas-blizzard-2010-snarls-new-y...
That's what happens when your city is unprepared for a snowstorm. Be glad that this storm prediction didn't pan out, and that your city government was ready this time just in case it did.
2
So now people are yelling 'overreaction' because they were told to get off the roads before they'd get stuck there? Seriously? What a bunch of crybabies. Anyone who knows the basics about meteorology knows that a shift of just a few miles in a Nor'easter's centre of maximum intensification - something that can happen at any time, impossible to predict with any precision - makes all the difference between the Great Blizzard of Holy Hell (which is pretty much what a lot of New England got) and just a lil' ole' snowstorm. Then again, one foot of snow has long been considered enough to close the schools for a day, and let's face it, you wouldn't want to have to be suck in standstill traffic and end up abandoning your car in it. So don't second guess the mayor and the governor. They were only trying to keep you from winding up as fresh frozen fools.
6
Don't worry. Be happy. It is goofy to complain. A lot of people got a free day off and most of us at least a few extra hours of rest. Be grateful. God is good.
3
Usually I agree with Frank Bruni but this time I have to say GET OVER IT! If the mayor and governor had done nothing to prepare for this storm and then NYC got dumped on, all of you would be screaming and hollering now about how incompetent they were to not prepare. Look at it as a bonus. Many New Yorkers got a day off from work, so now move on. There are worse things happening in the world than this minor inconvenience for New Yorkers!
3
Isn't that exactly what Bruni was saying?
I think you agree with Bruni, he is saying the same thing....
Seems to me that if de Blasio is darned if he does and darned if he doesn't. Come on, people. Better safe than sorry; time to find another issue to bellyache about!
2
Gas, candles, canned soup, bottled water; what a rip, now I have extra of everything. I hope Whole Foods will take this Kale back.
1
Let's not forget that Henry Blodget's dodgy ethics got him a securities fraud charge, a $4 million fine, and exile to securities Siberia. He now applies those dodgy ethics to click-baiting headlines like "Why Do People Hate Jews?" (http://gawker.com/5913990/why-do-people-hate-jews-wonders-philosopher-he....
So his, um, provocative assessment of the transportation shutdown is no surprise. The surprise is to see a NYTimes columnist fall into his click-bait trap. Quoting him, and even worse, providing a convenient link to drive up his numbers, gives him wholly undeserved exposure and legitimacy. Sad.
So his, um, provocative assessment of the transportation shutdown is no surprise. The surprise is to see a NYTimes columnist fall into his click-bait trap. Quoting him, and even worse, providing a convenient link to drive up his numbers, gives him wholly undeserved exposure and legitimacy. Sad.
1
Hey, I wonder how those Craig's List blizzard hook-ups turned out. Must be disappointing to wake up to 5 inches when the promises were so much higher.
1
I too live In Massachusetts and like Ms. Moses, we got nailed by the storm, andl ike Gemli I'm driven to distraction by the unceasing TV and radio coverage of the storm. Enough, already!!!
But the object lesson in mishandling of storm preparation is that of Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic. He booted the Blizzard of '79. The streets weren't plowed well, Chicago Transit Authority trains bypassed stops in black neighborhoods in the interest of dealing with the storm. He lost his reelection bit to Jane Byrne, who became Chicago's first female mayor. The lesson learned by public officials is that you will suffer more from underperforming, (e.g. not performing snow removal in entire boroughs), than from overreaction.
But the object lesson in mishandling of storm preparation is that of Chicago Mayor Michael Bilandic. He booted the Blizzard of '79. The streets weren't plowed well, Chicago Transit Authority trains bypassed stops in black neighborhoods in the interest of dealing with the storm. He lost his reelection bit to Jane Byrne, who became Chicago's first female mayor. The lesson learned by public officials is that you will suffer more from underperforming, (e.g. not performing snow removal in entire boroughs), than from overreaction.
2
Note to self: turn off TV, listen to radio, look out window, use common sense.
5
Mayor Big Bird cannot catch a break!
1
Good for you, Frank.
We have REAL problems to address, and they don't include griping that the storm wasn't so bad after all. Yes, America mostly loves to gripe!
We have REAL problems to address, and they don't include griping that the storm wasn't so bad after all. Yes, America mostly loves to gripe!
2
We're all just disappointed that it wasn't the end of the world, and to miss seeing Chris Christie standing on the barricades...
1
Utterly bizarre. The New Yorkers who are complaining seem to miss the fact that the massive storm that they missed hit a matter of miles away from NYC. New York missed this thing by a hair's breadth. To complain about political leaders overreacting is the height of - what? - entitlement?
I'm writing from Fredericton, New Brunswick, where the blizzard that missed NYC but hit New England, smashed into us. Everything was closed down in advance and, given the whiteout conditions and the approx. 13-18 inches of snow that followed, that was the right call. Here in F'ton, storms of this kind are not uncommon and not that big a deal. But you learn to respect the power of winter weather. It seems to me that New Yorkers need to get hit by a few real storms before they learn that it is better to err on the side of caution.
I'm writing from Fredericton, New Brunswick, where the blizzard that missed NYC but hit New England, smashed into us. Everything was closed down in advance and, given the whiteout conditions and the approx. 13-18 inches of snow that followed, that was the right call. Here in F'ton, storms of this kind are not uncommon and not that big a deal. But you learn to respect the power of winter weather. It seems to me that New Yorkers need to get hit by a few real storms before they learn that it is better to err on the side of caution.
14
The same thing happened in 2011 with Hurricane Irene. New Yorkers were already whining that the storm was "a bust" while at the same time just north, the Catskills and Vermont were drowning.
Unfortunately, the following fall came Sandy. So we know NYC knows all too well what it's like when the monster storm doesn't miss. Do us a favor and don't forget it!
Unfortunately, the following fall came Sandy. So we know NYC knows all too well what it's like when the monster storm doesn't miss. Do us a favor and don't forget it!
2
I lived in Florida for 23 years. During hurricane season, storms were tracked as soon as they came off the coast of Africa. The storms would sometimes be predicted to hit us and sometimes not (that was always a relief). When they would come close, people would go crazy making the preparations and would be frustrated and relieved at the same time when the storm would change course and just miss. Weather prediction is not a perfect science and we could have had the heavy snows but we didn't...I'm relieved. Frankly, I loved the travel ban. People stayed home and were safe.
8
we.love our new governor and mayor, they did great....We got got they snow just be happy nyc didn't.
3
People are upset because they were cheated out of an exciting snowstorm -- so bad you had to stop up on food, even though most of us have weeks worth of food in our homes already -- and the real-life excitement that comes with an out-of-ordinary experience.
18
Major media creates mass hysteria with their over-blown coverage of everything. Every single prime time news show for the last week have spent many minutes talking about coming storms. Of course people take it seriously. So some money was lost - lives and millions of taxpayer rescue dollars would have been saved if the storm had hit New York.
1
Weather scientists are well aware that their predictions are not certain, and would never present them as such. Yet we keep asking them "what's going to happen?". The better question is what are the important outcomes that might happen, and how likely is each? Given the certainty of uncertainty, it might be helpful if weather predictions came with some prediction of their degree of uncertainty and of the likelihood of major alternative outcomes. Most useful would be some measure of the relative likelihood that a prediction could be significantly worse or significantly better, so we could have some sense of situations that contain an unusual amount (greater than normal likelihood) of uncertainty. This might capture situations such as with this storm, when there was apparently unusual variation in the predictions among differing models, and when a sharp storm front could more easily-than-normal shift fifty miles out to sea.
2
As Frank points out, the elected leaders have a thankless task when it comes to weather. Prepare the populace in advance for what turns out to be a non-crisis, weatherwise, and you risk criticism. But that criticism will be much greater if you don't prepare your community for the storm, and the event ends up devastating the place.
My problem isn't with the elected leaders -- it's with the sensationalist media and all the TV clowns who hop out in their storm gear to catastrophize coming events and frighten viewers and cause a run on every Costco in the state, all the better for the cameras to cover.
They create the drama, and then they cover it. The whole thing would be easier to take if the drama queens on TV didn't so clearly love the game they're playing. Is there not a reasonable way to cover the possibility of a big storm without intentionally creating hysteria?
My problem isn't with the elected leaders -- it's with the sensationalist media and all the TV clowns who hop out in their storm gear to catastrophize coming events and frighten viewers and cause a run on every Costco in the state, all the better for the cameras to cover.
They create the drama, and then they cover it. The whole thing would be easier to take if the drama queens on TV didn't so clearly love the game they're playing. Is there not a reasonable way to cover the possibility of a big storm without intentionally creating hysteria?
7
I say three cheers for de Blasio and for Cuomo. They made the best decisions under the circumstances and if Obama had not been able to single handedly push that storm east, we would have suffered just like Boston did. Bottom line: Climate Change is real, we're in a whole new world of weather disasters and even though we get our fair share of bad weather, it's better than living in a place that bores you to death…even on a nice day!!!
4
So it was the governor rather than the mayor who shut the subway down; amazing! A governor has some kind of power to tell the NYC subways not to run? Unbelievable!
Words fail.....but according to Mr. Bruni, our leaders are cowards and we shouldn't blame them for being cowards; after all, their jobs are more important than the public interest.
Words fail.....but according to Mr. Bruni, our leaders are cowards and we shouldn't blame them for being cowards; after all, their jobs are more important than the public interest.
1
It is easy to avoid all the carrying-on: don't watch TV news. Look outside, consider your own safety, and act sensibly. Stop relying to electronic media to dictate how we feel--about anything. And enjoy a day or two of quiet down time.
It pains me to say this; for a change, the Mayor was right. He made a decision based on the best available information. Could you imagine the criticism if the forecasters had been right and the Mayor hadn't taken extreme measures?
Having said that, Gov. Cuomo was certainly wrong to close the entire subway system. At the very least, the lines that run entirely underground could have remained in operation.
Having said that, Gov. Cuomo was certainly wrong to close the entire subway system. At the very least, the lines that run entirely underground could have remained in operation.
3
Down here in Miami sometimes we overprepare for hurricanes that veered off course or lost intensity at the last minute. We count our blessings that we were spared the worst. You New Yorkers need to stop complaining and be thankful.
8
It's a perfect storm. Cautious officials, over hyped weather events on televised news, and a populous prone to hysterics.
Remember when the first storm of 2000 was labeled the Storm of the Century by the newscasters? It seems that there's a manufactured crisis every week. Turn off your televisions!
Remember when the first storm of 2000 was labeled the Storm of the Century by the newscasters? It seems that there's a manufactured crisis every week. Turn off your televisions!
2
Earlier today (Tuesday), the NYT hosted a gripe fest at a shameful level of understanding of the way large weather systems behave. Some comments critical of weathermen were from people who obviously didn't bother to listen to a full forecast, while others commenting on the good fortune of Manhattan obviously didn't know what had happened in Queens (11--12" of snow), never mind Long Island or farther afield.
My point is that we're in a period of mindless, bitter, continuous criticism. For myself, I thank the mayor and City officials for a job well done.
My point is that we're in a period of mindless, bitter, continuous criticism. For myself, I thank the mayor and City officials for a job well done.
3
Mother Nature doesn't run for office.
If a giant tsunami was predicted to kill 10 000 New Yorkers and only 100 died, people would gripe about that, too.
If a giant tsunami was predicted to kill 10 000 New Yorkers and only 100 died, people would gripe about that, too.
6
Dammed if you do and if you don't. Keep in mind you don't turn everything off or on in 5 minutes. Plans must be made when you have best info then implement the closedown protocol. And reopening then evaluate.
Can't we consider this a pass in the test of emergency procedures?
Good job New York!
Can't we consider this a pass in the test of emergency procedures?
Good job New York!
5
Let's get the facts straight, shall we?:
-The NWS and other weather services predicted a massive snowstorm, including up to 24" in NYC
-The politicians (mostly) simply reacted to what the NWS and other weather services predicted.
It was the MEDIA who, as usual, obscenely overhyped the predicted storm, making it sound like 24" in NYC or 36" north of NYC was some sort of "doomsday" or Armageddon scenario. After all, "hype" sells newspapers and gets people to watch TV and weather channels. So it's only "good business."
But it is also a very dangerous game. Because if the media keeps overhyping every single weather event - snow storm, coastal storm, thunderstorm - as they did with Hurricane (not!) Irene, Hurricane (not!) Sandy (though I am in no way downplaying the very real misery, destruction, injury and death created by Sandy, only that it never even rose to the level of a hurricane), and now Juno, they will end up setting up a "boy who cried wolf" scenario: people will simply begin to ignore the hype - even when it IS warranted, and a very real, dangerous storm is coming.
The media needs to step back and look at what it's doing. Because the game it is playing may unwittingly lead to unnecessary misery, injury and even death.
-The NWS and other weather services predicted a massive snowstorm, including up to 24" in NYC
-The politicians (mostly) simply reacted to what the NWS and other weather services predicted.
It was the MEDIA who, as usual, obscenely overhyped the predicted storm, making it sound like 24" in NYC or 36" north of NYC was some sort of "doomsday" or Armageddon scenario. After all, "hype" sells newspapers and gets people to watch TV and weather channels. So it's only "good business."
But it is also a very dangerous game. Because if the media keeps overhyping every single weather event - snow storm, coastal storm, thunderstorm - as they did with Hurricane (not!) Irene, Hurricane (not!) Sandy (though I am in no way downplaying the very real misery, destruction, injury and death created by Sandy, only that it never even rose to the level of a hurricane), and now Juno, they will end up setting up a "boy who cried wolf" scenario: people will simply begin to ignore the hype - even when it IS warranted, and a very real, dangerous storm is coming.
The media needs to step back and look at what it's doing. Because the game it is playing may unwittingly lead to unnecessary misery, injury and even death.
3
"gripe-happy"... I like that. Thank you, Frank.
2
Bruni finds somebody like Henry VerBloget (verblonget in Yiddish means mixed up or confused) to say something idiotic about subway shutdowns, to prove he would have done better. He’s not exactly the most reliable judge of anything. Yet Bruni dug up his silly quote.
The only thing better for the news media than this huge snowstorm is the controversy afterwards---did officials go too far? Were the forecasts hyped? Then the media gets to drag out the interminable coverage with more opinions and criticism. Naturally Bruni had to get with the latest trend as usual.
So we live in a gripe happy climate? Heating up with political malice. This is another chance for Mr. Bruni to scold.
Actually the weather forecasters were a bit mixed up and confused, but why not? Storms can veer suddenly off the predicted path.
But it really isn’t so, so, so important, not compared to so many other hugely important issues to talk about. Just read the NY Times and pick one of dozens.
The only thing better for the news media than this huge snowstorm is the controversy afterwards---did officials go too far? Were the forecasts hyped? Then the media gets to drag out the interminable coverage with more opinions and criticism. Naturally Bruni had to get with the latest trend as usual.
So we live in a gripe happy climate? Heating up with political malice. This is another chance for Mr. Bruni to scold.
Actually the weather forecasters were a bit mixed up and confused, but why not? Storms can veer suddenly off the predicted path.
But it really isn’t so, so, so important, not compared to so many other hugely important issues to talk about. Just read the NY Times and pick one of dozens.
Why do New Yorkers, supposedly the self-proclaimed most sophisticated Americans, always wind up appearing like whining babies?
First the big build up in the news, the whole country on edge pulling for you to deal with the 'biggest snowstorm' ever. All the preparations in place, everything seems like it's under control.
Then (as expected) the big let-down. Another meglomaniacal moment. (Remember "This is Our Katrina"?--well it wasn't. Just ask anyone from NO. You just couldn't bear not being the center of attention.)
Now NYers demand everyone's further attention by being crybabies about whether the build up (by your own media and politicians) was overblown. Grow up and get over it. It's the weather.
You people are exhausting.
First the big build up in the news, the whole country on edge pulling for you to deal with the 'biggest snowstorm' ever. All the preparations in place, everything seems like it's under control.
Then (as expected) the big let-down. Another meglomaniacal moment. (Remember "This is Our Katrina"?--well it wasn't. Just ask anyone from NO. You just couldn't bear not being the center of attention.)
Now NYers demand everyone's further attention by being crybabies about whether the build up (by your own media and politicians) was overblown. Grow up and get over it. It's the weather.
You people are exhausting.
2
Yes, because Texas never whines or seeks media attention. They also never make the mistake of thinking that their particular concerns, issues, and problems are more important than those in other areas of the country. Is Texas still the same place that circulate secession petitions on a regular basis?
3
New Yorkers are "whining babies"?
September 11, 2001.
September 11, 2001.
Remember what the NYC mayor character said in "Ghost Busters II"? He said "Being miserable and treating everyone like dirt is every New Yorker's God-given right!"
Of course, that was in response to an underground river of psychomagnotheric slime of immense proportions that had built up beneath the city and that was threatening to turn everyone into Hulk Hogan on fight-night. All we're talking about here is griping that we couldn't drive into Harlem to get our drugs for a few hours because Govs. Cuomo and Christie and, to a lesser extent, Mayor de Blasio, thought we were about to be hammered by the worst blizzard in the city's history ... that never happened. Well, it happened, but not to us -- as usual, it largely bypassed us and went and crippled New England. Which is largely what we keep a New England for.
My sympathies to that girl from Nantucket -- God was really aiming at Newark, NJ, but obviously something got in Her eye. Probably tears of laughter at the name "Nantucket", and that famous limerick.
But, tongue in cheek, why should we trust all the environmental doomsayers when climatologists can't get a weather forecast right that's about to happen?
Of course, that was in response to an underground river of psychomagnotheric slime of immense proportions that had built up beneath the city and that was threatening to turn everyone into Hulk Hogan on fight-night. All we're talking about here is griping that we couldn't drive into Harlem to get our drugs for a few hours because Govs. Cuomo and Christie and, to a lesser extent, Mayor de Blasio, thought we were about to be hammered by the worst blizzard in the city's history ... that never happened. Well, it happened, but not to us -- as usual, it largely bypassed us and went and crippled New England. Which is largely what we keep a New England for.
My sympathies to that girl from Nantucket -- God was really aiming at Newark, NJ, but obviously something got in Her eye. Probably tears of laughter at the name "Nantucket", and that famous limerick.
But, tongue in cheek, why should we trust all the environmental doomsayers when climatologists can't get a weather forecast right that's about to happen?
Mmmmm, gee Richard; why, indeed bother to prepare for the worst?
2
"But, tongue in cheek, why should we trust all the environmental doomsayers when climatologists can't get a weather forecast right that's about to happen?"
Keep that tongue glued to your cheek, to prevent your foot from joining it in your mouth.
Might I remind you about the nature of probability and statistics? It's not possible to predict the precise nature of every large event in a stochastic system, but accumulation of many data points can lead you to general conclusions.
Let's take seismology. Most seismologists will tell you that they are very bad at predicting any individual earthquake, but they do know that California will have a lot of them in the future. So since they can't predict individual earthquakes to a confidence of 95%, we should just abandon all earthquake-related building improvements, right? What could go wrong?
Keep that tongue glued to your cheek, to prevent your foot from joining it in your mouth.
Might I remind you about the nature of probability and statistics? It's not possible to predict the precise nature of every large event in a stochastic system, but accumulation of many data points can lead you to general conclusions.
Let's take seismology. Most seismologists will tell you that they are very bad at predicting any individual earthquake, but they do know that California will have a lot of them in the future. So since they can't predict individual earthquakes to a confidence of 95%, we should just abandon all earthquake-related building improvements, right? What could go wrong?
1
There's an old expression: better safe than sorry.
10
Step back and look at how beautifully, at least in New York and at least from what I could see, New Yorkers handled the travel ban and the closing of the roads. People seemed to depart their jobs early and get to their homes without too much griping. Stocking up may have been excessive, but there were no riots. Plows and emergency vehicles had a pretty easy time moving about throughout the night. It all led to a much better scene the following day. From what we know, bad weather is going to continue to get worse as the climate changes. This was good practice for the apocalypse.
If there were fewer follow up stories and editorials discussing this non-issue, it just might go away. There are certainly bigger Christie and Cuomo stories I'd rather see covered. De Blasio, at least, acts like a New Yorker, like the rest of us, and it's a breath of fresh air. Please stop talking about this by the end of today!
If there were fewer follow up stories and editorials discussing this non-issue, it just might go away. There are certainly bigger Christie and Cuomo stories I'd rather see covered. De Blasio, at least, acts like a New Yorker, like the rest of us, and it's a breath of fresh air. Please stop talking about this by the end of today!
13
Ask the people in Boston and on Nantucket if they think they overprepared. And has everybody forgotten what happened two years ago when a similar storm was worse then predicted? I'm just glad my Town of Hamden didn't get 40 inches again!
10
I found the aftermath of some of the large snow storms (not necessarily the crippling blizzards) to be great opportunities, in the urban environment, to meet & make friends with neighbors.
In my now former neighborhood of Brookline, MA, with the snows stopped & sufficient hot chocolate consumed, I'd go out to shovel out my car -- snuggled in snow along with the dozen or so on either side. About that time other neighbors -- the previously anonymous owners -- would emerge to do the same.
I'd try to organize a sort of bucket brigade -- we all helping to dig each other out, the camaraderie making an otherwise tedious task into something a bit on the fun side & definitely allowed the division of labor to the nature of the tasks. Some could brush off the cars, others could do the heavy lifting.
This part of Brookline being a "streetcar suburb", the many thousands of people living within a 1/4 mile radius were more or less anonymous. It was these type of events, (and perhaps on Election Day, standing on line to vote at the Runckle Elementary School nearby) were the times I'd really encounter my neighbors, the times where faces & voices & personalities would came out -- we could share moments of making a seemingly bad situation into one with a bit of fun mixed in.
Out of characters -- too bad, as I have a Blizzard of '78 story where I had the great pleasure of offering advice to the Founder of the John Birch Society as to what he could do with himself. It was in Belmont, MA
In my now former neighborhood of Brookline, MA, with the snows stopped & sufficient hot chocolate consumed, I'd go out to shovel out my car -- snuggled in snow along with the dozen or so on either side. About that time other neighbors -- the previously anonymous owners -- would emerge to do the same.
I'd try to organize a sort of bucket brigade -- we all helping to dig each other out, the camaraderie making an otherwise tedious task into something a bit on the fun side & definitely allowed the division of labor to the nature of the tasks. Some could brush off the cars, others could do the heavy lifting.
This part of Brookline being a "streetcar suburb", the many thousands of people living within a 1/4 mile radius were more or less anonymous. It was these type of events, (and perhaps on Election Day, standing on line to vote at the Runckle Elementary School nearby) were the times I'd really encounter my neighbors, the times where faces & voices & personalities would came out -- we could share moments of making a seemingly bad situation into one with a bit of fun mixed in.
Out of characters -- too bad, as I have a Blizzard of '78 story where I had the great pleasure of offering advice to the Founder of the John Birch Society as to what he could do with himself. It was in Belmont, MA
4
The NWS needs to upgrade to the European standard for weather prediction/detection (http://www.ecmwf.int/). It would make for more accurate prediction and help authorities make the proper decisions. It would sure help keep all these petty complainers quiet when things don't go as expected.
I believe that there was an article recently in the Times about how the US is behind in terms of accurate weather prediction.
I believe that there was an article recently in the Times about how the US is behind in terms of accurate weather prediction.
2
Actually Joanna, the NWS has a new model that actually called the storm correctly. They did not use it for 2 reasons, both reasonable IMO. First the model (in truth a revised and updated older one) has only been in production for about a month and so it lacks a track record. Second they had two models that effectively said the same thing regarding the storm and these both have been tried and true.
I suspect going forward the newer model will be better trusted. Even the old models were only slightly off, they missed by what about 50 miles or so, that isn't bad.
I suspect going forward the newer model will be better trusted. Even the old models were only slightly off, they missed by what about 50 miles or so, that isn't bad.
6
Here's the thing. NYC has received as much snowfall as was frantically predicted for Tuesday in the past (I lived there when about 24 inches fell in 1977, or 1978, can't remember), and the subways ran.
Last time the scare was over Ebola; remember how Cuomo and Christie over reacted on that one?
And when a reporter asked Christie if there was over reaction, Christie responded by saying he was going by what the media was telling him. Typical conservative; blame the media all the while ignoring the fact that the media reports the weather; it does not predict the weather.
Last time the scare was over Ebola; remember how Cuomo and Christie over reacted on that one?
And when a reporter asked Christie if there was over reaction, Christie responded by saying he was going by what the media was telling him. Typical conservative; blame the media all the while ignoring the fact that the media reports the weather; it does not predict the weather.
3
The media DOES predict (or try to predict) the weather. That's why we are more interested in weather "forecasts" than weather "reports." Obviously, we can see the weather around us at any given time, but the media attempts to predict what will happen in the near future. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, but we generally recognize that they know more about weather patterns than the average person and we react accordingly.
To Matt:
No, the media does not predict the weather. They report on the predictions given to them by agencies, public and private, that predict the weather.
What equipment does a local TV or radio station have to make weather forecasts, predictions or reports? Do they have their own weather satellites, balloons or aircraft? Do they have dopplar radar in the studio?
No, the media does not predict the weather. They report on the predictions given to them by agencies, public and private, that predict the weather.
What equipment does a local TV or radio station have to make weather forecasts, predictions or reports? Do they have their own weather satellites, balloons or aircraft? Do they have dopplar radar in the studio?
Thank you for this, as always, Mr. Bruni!
After two solid days of media hysteria and subsequent deconstruction in the form of "grading" the National Weather Service, who managed to do a great job in the face of the ongoing surprises of global climate change (not even discussed in the media), I nearly lost my mind. It wasn't just the reports-from-the-car of of so-called "journalists" driving on the I-95 corridor before, during and after the storm while simultaneously advising us all to "stay off the roads," but also from the panic that precipitated mass hoarding of milk and bread by otherwise "normal" people. Sad to consider what might happen in the event of real catastrophe in this country.
Additionally, we suffered a veritable media blackout in terms of the actual news, so much of it this week, supplanted by the virtual news on literally every cable station, speculating on everything from death tolls to economic damages.
To be fair, Sarah Palin, the savant, surely got noticed.
The media, who are supposedly "guardians of democracy," have apparently consciously chosen to move from one distraction to another. They talk amongst themselves, they hype every crisis at the expense of other news, and then they deconstruct repetitively,
looking for scapegoats when the story doesn't play out exactly as they themselves have predicted.
Seriously, is this the new normal?
mlm
After two solid days of media hysteria and subsequent deconstruction in the form of "grading" the National Weather Service, who managed to do a great job in the face of the ongoing surprises of global climate change (not even discussed in the media), I nearly lost my mind. It wasn't just the reports-from-the-car of of so-called "journalists" driving on the I-95 corridor before, during and after the storm while simultaneously advising us all to "stay off the roads," but also from the panic that precipitated mass hoarding of milk and bread by otherwise "normal" people. Sad to consider what might happen in the event of real catastrophe in this country.
Additionally, we suffered a veritable media blackout in terms of the actual news, so much of it this week, supplanted by the virtual news on literally every cable station, speculating on everything from death tolls to economic damages.
To be fair, Sarah Palin, the savant, surely got noticed.
The media, who are supposedly "guardians of democracy," have apparently consciously chosen to move from one distraction to another. They talk amongst themselves, they hype every crisis at the expense of other news, and then they deconstruct repetitively,
looking for scapegoats when the story doesn't play out exactly as they themselves have predicted.
Seriously, is this the new normal?
mlm
25
This overreaction is symptomatic of liberal orthodoxy in general. How about the mayor and the governors said the following: "this storm has the potential to be really bad, we will have all of our response resources on their highest alert level and would encourage people to stay home during the hours we expect the snowfall to be the worst (midnight to 7am). We will continually monitor the storm and make decisions accordingly. If the snowfall is too heavy we may decide to shut mass transit". The beauty of this approach is that you could take advantage of all the media boobs who like to hang on to poles with the wind blowing to inform people. You might also get people to think for themselves and understand the risk of decisions they make. Our current methodology has people acting like lambs and basing all of there decisions on whether or not some politician tells them to do something. Why would most of us take action based on what a group of people, most of whom could not get real jobs if their lives depended on it, tell us. Would you really make any life and death decision based on what Bill De Blasio says? If you answered yes to that you have my sympathy.
1
It's about liberals? If the storm had hit hard and New York was unprepared, who would you blame then? I am guessing it would be liberals.
26
I'm sure Obama did it (!)
2
I'm confused, is the snow liberal or conservative?
2
It might help in the future if the National Weather Service and the media led their forecasts with the understanding that they were imprecise. Educating the public on meteorology and the highly problematic forecasting of storm activity would also dovetail in helping us understand that the "seven day forecasts" we are so used to seeing every day from our local news outlets are largely useless.
Weather is about the only (sort of) science nearly everyone pays attention to. As such, the National Weather Service ("Who are they anyway?") and the media should take advantage of it and better engage and educate the public (maybe we'd get more people concerned about climate change in the process). A better understanding of the science of forecasting weather, good and bad, by the media would also help lower the decibel level and extend to government officials who could more easily encourage sensible and timely preparation instead of panic at all times in all weather.
Weather is about the only (sort of) science nearly everyone pays attention to. As such, the National Weather Service ("Who are they anyway?") and the media should take advantage of it and better engage and educate the public (maybe we'd get more people concerned about climate change in the process). A better understanding of the science of forecasting weather, good and bad, by the media would also help lower the decibel level and extend to government officials who could more easily encourage sensible and timely preparation instead of panic at all times in all weather.
4
I agree James. When did we stop realizing that weather reports are imprecise? I still realize it without being told. But then I have seen a lot of weather and weather reports not quite on point.
2
"I also agree about the imprecision." Click and Clack's statistician, Marge Innovera
Mayor Bloomberg closed down the New York City subway system twice. The first time was for a hurricane that turned out to be a dud. The second time was for Hurricsne Sandy. Had the subways been running during Sandy, many people would have been injured or died when they flooded.
Many blamed Bloomberg for allegedly over-reacting, after the first supposed hurricane turned out to be merely a heavy rainfall with a little wind. Just think what would have happened, had he listened to the critics and not taken steps to prepare for Sandy. You never know when the dire forecast will turn out to be accurate. It is better to prepare for the worst and be over-prepared, than to suffer the consequences of inadequate preparation.
Many blamed Bloomberg for allegedly over-reacting, after the first supposed hurricane turned out to be merely a heavy rainfall with a little wind. Just think what would have happened, had he listened to the critics and not taken steps to prepare for Sandy. You never know when the dire forecast will turn out to be accurate. It is better to prepare for the worst and be over-prepared, than to suffer the consequences of inadequate preparation.
16
From meteorologists, in addition to a forecast, I'd like a statement about the certainty of that forecast. Now we hear that some meteorologists were uneasy about their forecasts, sensing the storm would affect PA, NJ and possibly NYC less than they initially told us. True, such a statement wouldn't be as theatrical, but we"d be reminded, ahead of the storm, that in the weather business, no one is infallible.
2
It's about risk, isn't it Frank ?
A situation of weighing possible outcomes, using the best information available, and remembering that each person needing assistance during a weather disaster will also be risking lives of first responders.
Based on the info supplied from meteorologists, looks like it was a no-brainer, which minimized the possibility of stranded citizens and cascading resultant emergencies that could quickly overwhelm first responders.
Besides, with a driving ban in effect, the work of snow plows is immeasurably faster, getting what snow did fall out of the way sooner.
A situation of weighing possible outcomes, using the best information available, and remembering that each person needing assistance during a weather disaster will also be risking lives of first responders.
Based on the info supplied from meteorologists, looks like it was a no-brainer, which minimized the possibility of stranded citizens and cascading resultant emergencies that could quickly overwhelm first responders.
Besides, with a driving ban in effect, the work of snow plows is immeasurably faster, getting what snow did fall out of the way sooner.
39
Yes, and as far as I know, Moscow's subway is not threatened by the 7-12 foot waves / storm surge problem that NYC's was in this storm's forecast.
In 96, Metro-North fried a lot of equipment trying to run the electric trains through a storm. In the aftermath, commutes were disrupted and uncomfortable for days as we waited for parts to repair them and relied on a small number of old diesels brought out of mothballs.
In 96, Metro-North fried a lot of equipment trying to run the electric trains through a storm. In the aftermath, commutes were disrupted and uncomfortable for days as we waited for parts to repair them and relied on a small number of old diesels brought out of mothballs.
1
we are talking about subways here not railroads that run at surface level- big difference... powdery fluffy snow is much easier and less of a threat than heavy wet snow or ice.
Imagine if we griped and complained about something that really matters!
Hunger in America, lack of good jobs that pay a livable wage and have benefits, an unlivable minimum wage, inferior healthcare for veterans, those on Medicare and the uninsured, over 13 years of senseless, endless war in the Middle East with no end game or workable exit plan, disparate public education tied to economic status, crumbling and outdated critical infrasturecture systems, roads, bridges, water and sewer, inadequate public water supply, inadequate and outdated electric supply system, eligible voters who don't vote leaving political power to the wealthy, inferior treatment and job training for returning veterans, active soldiers and their families having to rely on food stamps to feed their families..the list of real things to gripe about is endless.
I'll take a bad weather report or unexpectedly good weather any day if only a few of the above listed real problems got resolved!
Hunger in America, lack of good jobs that pay a livable wage and have benefits, an unlivable minimum wage, inferior healthcare for veterans, those on Medicare and the uninsured, over 13 years of senseless, endless war in the Middle East with no end game or workable exit plan, disparate public education tied to economic status, crumbling and outdated critical infrasturecture systems, roads, bridges, water and sewer, inadequate public water supply, inadequate and outdated electric supply system, eligible voters who don't vote leaving political power to the wealthy, inferior treatment and job training for returning veterans, active soldiers and their families having to rely on food stamps to feed their families..the list of real things to gripe about is endless.
I'll take a bad weather report or unexpectedly good weather any day if only a few of the above listed real problems got resolved!
85
Up on the Massachusetts coastline waves were overtaking entire homes, and homes and businesses were encrusted in ice because of the storm's fury, and we're complaining because our leaders adhered to the maxim "better safe than sorry" based on a preponderance of dire warnings, and we had a snow day. Only in greater New York are we so provincial that we feel aggrieved if we didn't get our promised share of the suffering. Just stop.
354
We have become a nation of narcissistic navel gazers and micro-managers, thinking about how things benefit or inconvenience us personally instead of thinking about what is best for the community as a whole. The population density in the New York area is so great that it makes far more sense to be a bit overly cautious than to put so many people at risk. OK, so stormageddon didn't happen in New York, but the clean up of what did fall was so much easier without people on the road. We have it awfully good in this country, and if we are inconvenienced from time to time, that is the price we pay for all the benefits we do have. I live in an area that got socked with snow, and I appreciate all the caution that officials in my area used to keep us safe.
22
banning people from public parks and closing the subway down inconvenienced and put lives at risk for those who needed to get home from work.. they were stranded... and not to be able to walk through a park for a ridiculous fear of some twigs falling is for the record books.
It's very simple. The mayor shut down public transportation based upon weather reports. I about a hundred years, the subway system had never been shut down, except because of actual flooding from hurricane Sandy. Note- actual flooding, not possible future flooding.
A hundred years! Yet it's shut down over a weather report. Sure, prepare. But that wasn't "preparation".
We have a society that is becoming so risk-averse that it has reached the level of pure absurdity. To shut down the main public-transportation system before it has become absolutely necessary is pathetic.
A hundred years! Yet it's shut down over a weather report. Sure, prepare. But that wasn't "preparation".
We have a society that is becoming so risk-averse that it has reached the level of pure absurdity. To shut down the main public-transportation system before it has become absolutely necessary is pathetic.
2
The NYC subway was shut down before Sandy hit land. One cannot shut down a subway system that is already flooded! It takes hours to move subway cars to yards on higher ground. Electrical systems have to be turned off. There is a danger of flooding every day of the year in the NYC subway -- underground streams require pumps to be working on the driest days of the summer; melting snow could easily cover the electrified third rail in many stations.
Preventive measures were ordered for Sandy on the basis of weather forecasts, as was done this week. This was sensible. If you wish to take risks, do so at your own peril. Fortunately you do not have to make decisions for the public's welfare.
Preventive measures were ordered for Sandy on the basis of weather forecasts, as was done this week. This was sensible. If you wish to take risks, do so at your own peril. Fortunately you do not have to make decisions for the public's welfare.
10
The mayor didn't shut it down, the governor did.
The governor shut down the subway system, not the mayor. Read the article.
One night of inconvenience is a small price to pay, considering that had the storm hit 20 miles to the West we would have been buried by it.
I lived in E. Massachusetts for 35 years, and learned to cope with 2-4 major snowstorms every winter. I have been shoveled out of my row house, by neighbors, had 2 feet of snow in my front yard while the wind was destroying the screen porch, and been marooned in a pub during the blizzard of '78.
That was the one that showed what happens if you are caught off guard. I lived in Cambridge and was close to where I worked (Symphony Hall). Some of my colleagues that lived out near Rt. 128 were stuck for many hours on the highway in 5-foot snowdrifts, some all night the on the first night. Others were without power for up to a week, and had not laid in things like bottled water and canned food.
I would rather wake up to find the storm had fizzled while expecting an entombment than to have the reverse situation. It is too bad that so many feel betrayed that no one died because of inadequate countermeasures, that school was out for only one day, and that the Mayor was not able to contradict the National Weather Service.
I lived in E. Massachusetts for 35 years, and learned to cope with 2-4 major snowstorms every winter. I have been shoveled out of my row house, by neighbors, had 2 feet of snow in my front yard while the wind was destroying the screen porch, and been marooned in a pub during the blizzard of '78.
That was the one that showed what happens if you are caught off guard. I lived in Cambridge and was close to where I worked (Symphony Hall). Some of my colleagues that lived out near Rt. 128 were stuck for many hours on the highway in 5-foot snowdrifts, some all night the on the first night. Others were without power for up to a week, and had not laid in things like bottled water and canned food.
I would rather wake up to find the storm had fizzled while expecting an entombment than to have the reverse situation. It is too bad that so many feel betrayed that no one died because of inadequate countermeasures, that school was out for only one day, and that the Mayor was not able to contradict the National Weather Service.
22
I moved to Cambridge three years after the 1978 storm, and legends of that still loomed large in everyone's discussions when subsequent snowstorms threatened. It must have been an extraordinary experience.
1
being stranded after work because the subways were shut down is not being "inconvenienced" - its dangerous...
Our nation is so divided that we now have a blame game raging about the weather. Too bad Obama is out of the country or we could conveniently blame him. The thing we should be blaming is climate change but since so many of us are in deep denial about that, it's better to whine than place blame where it really belongs.
9
Writing from my perch in sunny Southern California (80 deg. today), I can easily see what the problem was: these so-called leaders were relying on science to influence their actions. The "meteorologists" at NOAA and NWS shouldn't be taken any more seriously than all those "global warming" soothsayers. (Any doubt why the 60's radicals called themselves "weathermen"?) And these "predictions" are even less credible, based as they were on mere statistics. They're just messing with God's plan, and if that's bestowing misery on blue states, then so be it. I say let the snow flakes fall where they may, and if disaster results, then simply call in Michael Brown to clean up the mess. He'd do heckuva job.
5
Really? You think the weather forecasters are inaccurate? A great many aspects of weather - as opposed to climate - depends on a number of short term variables. In the main, I find they have been very accurate. Here, the forecast for the day goes to the hour level and they are generally right on. Living next to mountains or the sea makes the longer term predictions a bit more difficult but again, overall, hits far outnumber misses.
I do have to laugh though about the "God's plan" bit and the blue states. That must be why the solid Red south gets all 'dem hurricanes and tornadoes right? If God is angry at blue states, his/her aim is lousy.
I do have to laugh though about the "God's plan" bit and the blue states. That must be why the solid Red south gets all 'dem hurricanes and tornadoes right? If God is angry at blue states, his/her aim is lousy.
2
I agree with Bruni on this, but this issue is much bigger than a snowstorm. Hopefully, someday people will get their dumb heads out of their smart phones and will realize that we are presently living in the greatest era ever of gratuitous griping and whining. The world certainly isn't perfect, but in the half-century or so that I've been around it has never been better. We are continuously assaulted by the professional complainers in and around government and the media, as well as from the millions of amateurs on the web. I could go on and on about this, but I won't.
9
It is the press that plays up the griping, leading to the deaths of those who blow off the next storm. The question is not if the weather report was wrong for a certain area, but whether it is appropriate for a community to prepare. There is only one answer...yes!
4
I live in Southwest Missouri. We have snow here. Also thunderstorms and tornadoes. Before a storm, the weather-guessers do their best to warn us of what is to come. We know, from their weather-reports, whether or not we should store extra groceries in our pantries, buy more propane or firewood, get candles or gas lamps, make sure the generator works, and locate the snow shovels. If the storm fizzles out before it reaches us, then we don't have to go shopping for another week, and we're still prepared for the next time. And there's always a next time.
16
The one thing that unites our divided and disparate country is the privilege of taking potshots at weather forecasters, getting as personal as we like - with perfect autonymity.
The David Axelrods and Karl Roves get to make their guesses and we expect them to miss, but not the weather guessers. It's our harmless social fun.
The David Axelrods and Karl Roves get to make their guesses and we expect them to miss, but not the weather guessers. It's our harmless social fun.
3
The forecasters from NWS were essentially correct on this storm. What was off was the tracking -- eastern Long Island, the Cape and Islands, Boston to Worcester were hit hard. As with several recent major storms, predictions have been largely accurate, saving many lives that would have been lost only a few decades ago when forecasting models, weather satellites, and computers were not available to meteorologists.
Perhaps the part of the news industry should be the focus of ire for over-reacting; on the other hand, there are people who will not listen unless the warnings are dire.
Your remark on political commentators is interesting. Maybe we should rate the experts on talk shows to see their success rate.
Perhaps the part of the news industry should be the focus of ire for over-reacting; on the other hand, there are people who will not listen unless the warnings are dire.
Your remark on political commentators is interesting. Maybe we should rate the experts on talk shows to see their success rate.
2
Best new phrase of 2015: gripe-happy. It perfectly describes the unfounded complaints that we make about people making a reasonable effort to serve us, whether it is government, entertainment, newspapers, manufacturers or merchants. Now the question is, do social media cause us to be gripe-happy, or provide us with a necessary (or unnecessary) outlet for our gripe-happiness.
13
I have experienced more than a few hurricanes and I would always prefer to be prepared and glad of a glancing blow than a direct hit. Weather forecasters are doing a great job.
16
Having grown up in the Midwest I got use to these types of storms. But what surprised me with this one was the amount of coverage it got. I am not trying to minimize it but to me it was a race among the media who could predict the most dire set of circumstances. I see no point in that. I realize that storms do change directions and you cant predict that but with the technology that they have I have a hard time believing that they didn't see a trend developing and report it. I will acknowledge that computers can not give the complete picture but just the same watching these programs to me it was turning into a doom and gloom scenario and the only thing missing ws the was the buildup in Jaws when he was getting ready to attack.
If I lived backed there I think I would make sure I had several days can foods, dry foods, batteries and plenty of thermal underwear. Thankfully I live in San Diego and its 70 and sunny
If I lived backed there I think I would make sure I had several days can foods, dry foods, batteries and plenty of thermal underwear. Thankfully I live in San Diego and its 70 and sunny
3
There were 75 mile an hour winds, nothing to sneeze at!
Also there was a snow storm here in Pittsburgh a few years ago that dumped close to 2 feet. The mayor was on vacation and didn't immediately return and when he did he refused to hire private contractors to help dig out. It took the city and county workers close to 2 weeks to clear all the streets. And yes, that ex-mayor is still ridiculed over this.
Also there was a snow storm here in Pittsburgh a few years ago that dumped close to 2 feet. The mayor was on vacation and didn't immediately return and when he did he refused to hire private contractors to help dig out. It took the city and county workers close to 2 weeks to clear all the streets. And yes, that ex-mayor is still ridiculed over this.
10
My friend's father was a NOAA forecaster specializing in eastern coastal storms. He once said that these storms were the hardest to forecast in North America.
E.g., we in W. Mass were forecast to get up to 20". The main storm shifted 20 mi. east. We got 4". Worcester, MA, about 45 mi. east got over 33 in.
We prepared for the worst - multiple-days w/out power. Do I feel like a fool for all of that, or that I was lied to? Absolutely not.
E.g., we in W. Mass were forecast to get up to 20". The main storm shifted 20 mi. east. We got 4". Worcester, MA, about 45 mi. east got over 33 in.
We prepared for the worst - multiple-days w/out power. Do I feel like a fool for all of that, or that I was lied to? Absolutely not.
34
Sitting now in a town next to you, I completely agree. We were (and are) very fortunate in our valley.
Some people always gripe when they should be happy. Any event is an occasion for the angry people of the world to complain and be cynical. When I go to NYC later today, no doubt I shall hear comments about the subway being shut down yesterday -- but never a word about how convenient it is every other day that it runs.
Some people always gripe when they should be happy. Any event is an occasion for the angry people of the world to complain and be cynical. When I go to NYC later today, no doubt I shall hear comments about the subway being shut down yesterday -- but never a word about how convenient it is every other day that it runs.
1
I love it when New Yorkers get upset about a little snow - or the lack of it! Just kidding, that's what they say when we have ice storms in Atlanta. For the consequences of not erring on the side of caution, the major should look at how both the major of Atlanta and the governor of Georgia were excoriated last winter after one of our ice storms.
The people most upset are those who are worried about losing money by shutdowns. Public safety is not high on their lists of concerns.
The people most upset are those who are worried about losing money by shutdowns. Public safety is not high on their lists of concerns.
13
And I posit that a large part of the decision was the goal of ensuring that the people working to get things running as efficiently as possible as soon as possible had the space to work without unnecessary activity and people getting in their way.
A very reasonable assessment. I don't like to defend politicians, but I'd also point out that in recent winters snow storm forecasts have been very accurate.
9
Hey, decisions are made with the best of intentions, using information available at the time. We were ready yesterday; we're glad the worst did not happen.
Better safe than sorry--that's the lesson I and many of my neighbors learned (the hard way) from Sandy!
Better safe than sorry--that's the lesson I and many of my neighbors learned (the hard way) from Sandy!
26
A massive storm was predicted and it hit. It missed NYC by 50 miles. In weather terms that is the equivalent of a 100 mile an hour curve ball missing your head by three inches. The storm crunched New England.
Those who criticize should improve the prediction models and the super computers that are used to predict weather. Oooops. They can't.
Those who criticize should improve the prediction models and the super computers that are used to predict weather. Oooops. They can't.
209
Not only can't they improve the models and computers, but they will vociferously complain about the government spending required to do just that.
4
Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that many of the people who gripe online about this have never had to do anything nearly as complex and difficult as build those models or evaluate their outputs. Kind of like the folks who are complaining about the year-to-year variations in effectiveness of the flu vaccine. This stuff is hard, folks!
La Guardia got 12 inches it is in NYC and only 3 miles from Manhattan max. so NYC did see substantial snow fall.
To err (on the side of caution) is human (and, given history, smart); to never err, divine. Not sure about you, but I don't know too many gods. I am certainly not one.
The real question is, or needs to be - why all the anger, all the time, at everyone and everything? Could it be...media??
The real question is, or needs to be - why all the anger, all the time, at everyone and everything? Could it be...media??
26
Do you mean the media who have decided to "name" inconsequential snow storms? Nah, no hype there.
1
It makes more sense to "overreact" to this weather report--which would have affected millions--than it did to hound that volunteer returning from Africa because of irrational, unscientific Ebola fears.
10
tell that to the thousands stranded because Cuomo shut down the subway and they could not get home from their late shift or get to work.. most of us do have to work regardless.
Let's put this in perspective, no one died. That is an accomplishment worth celebrating. In my life of several decades, I have seen many, many storms headed for the northeast that blew out to sea. We are sorry that it turned out okay?
Personally, I am glad they all acted with caution. It really, really does not hurt us to take a break once in awhile. There was nothing so momentous that was going to get done on Tuesday that it won't get done today. Have we really lost all sense of proportion and prudence?
Thank you, governors, all of you for putting caution first. Safety is really what comes first.
Personally, I am glad they all acted with caution. It really, really does not hurt us to take a break once in awhile. There was nothing so momentous that was going to get done on Tuesday that it won't get done today. Have we really lost all sense of proportion and prudence?
Thank you, governors, all of you for putting caution first. Safety is really what comes first.
33
Henry Blodget? Right, the same man who got so much wrong predicting tech stocks that he was permanently barred by the SEC?
Seems like Mr. Blodget should be the last person criticizing someone for not being able to accurately predict an event.
When is the last time Henry had to take mass transit?
Seems like Mr. Blodget should be the last person criticizing someone for not being able to accurately predict an event.
When is the last time Henry had to take mass transit?
27
In fairness to Gov. Cuomo re: the shutdown of the mass transit system, the storm predictions included called for very high winds and, in fact, it was reported that Boston was experiencing 75 mph winds along with it's big helping of with stuff.
Perhaps we should recall that such winds caused massive flooding in parts of NYC (e.g. my L.E.S. neighborhood) during Hurricane Sandy, that caught the transit system in a less secure regular overnight situation, and led to avoidable (in hindsight ) damage that took weeks of extra time to sort out?
Perhaps we should recall that such winds caused massive flooding in parts of NYC (e.g. my L.E.S. neighborhood) during Hurricane Sandy, that caught the transit system in a less secure regular overnight situation, and led to avoidable (in hindsight ) damage that took weeks of extra time to sort out?
19
For much of my childhood, my family lived at the end of a 600 foot driveway on ten acres surrounded by hundreds of acres of open farmland. It being the late 1950's and early 1960's, weather forecasts were far less accurate than they have become. During November, allowing that winter was coming, my mother stocked up on non-perishable food and water, and when some sort of storm was forecast, or if it simply started snowing hard, we parked the car near the road to minimize digging it out later. So whatever happened, we were ready, and some of our happiest times were passed watching the snow drift across the hayfields on either side of the house, feeling snug and secure, and knowing that in a day or two or three, after the township was finished plowing the roads (without our car in the way), we could go back to our usual routines.
These snarky New Yorkers are such children.
These snarky New Yorkers are such children.
49
If anyone of the critics were an elected official - after seeing the lynch mob mentality against Bloomberg and snow-trapped Queens in 2010 and de Blasio's lambasting for the Upper Eastside just days after his inauguation - they too would have erred on the side of caution. No official wants to be caught in a George W. Bush-deer-in-the-headlights-Katrinaesque-nightmare!
The only real mistake (obviously in hindsight) was shutting down the entire MTA system. It effectively caused most offices and businesses to shutdown for the day yesterday and that had economic ramifications in the billions. That was Cuomo's doing and I suppose it was understandable, especially in the midst of the Sheldon Silver/Moreland Commission fiasco. The unfortunate timing of a neglected response to a snow emergency of predicted historic proportions would have been political suicide for Cuomo.
The only real mistake (obviously in hindsight) was shutting down the entire MTA system. It effectively caused most offices and businesses to shutdown for the day yesterday and that had economic ramifications in the billions. That was Cuomo's doing and I suppose it was understandable, especially in the midst of the Sheldon Silver/Moreland Commission fiasco. The unfortunate timing of a neglected response to a snow emergency of predicted historic proportions would have been political suicide for Cuomo.
8
Help me understand, exactly were do those lost billions go? Do they evaporate or move to Europe? Do they travel the globe in search of a home? Do they just materialize a day later? How did the world exist before now with billions roaming homeless every time there was a storm? Are you absolutely certain you are not exaggerating the "disaster" of errant money?
The subway was running yesterday morning at 9am, at least in Manhattan. How did that shut down businesses yesterday? Or was there selective re-opening?
I’m sorry, while I fully agree that prudent leaders should of course prepare for the worst in a situation such as this storm, common sense should have caused Mr. Cuomo to at least wait for actual developments before taking draconian measures such as closing down the entire subway system. The subway system has survived many snowstorms as bad as or worse than even the wildest one our frenzied TV commentators predicted. Of course that would have deprived Mr. Cuomo of a chance to hog the limelight & deflect attention from his many other problems.
4
Common sense is exactly what the Gov was using. With the population density of NYC, a decision had to be made BEFORE "actual events.". This isn't Slippery Rock, Montana where a last minute decision means a phone call to your cousin who drives the one and only bus.
they were not "prudent" instead full of fear and panic and telling everyone to be the same way..
The question we should be asking is: do the officials in the city and in the state have the information necessary to put in place emergency measures in the face of changing information?
If the lead time to do things like move emergency equipment, clear roads, get commuters with two hour commutes home, relocate transportation stock to a better place, move power company resources takes a long time, and information changes quickly, there will be a mismatch.
In this storm, the critical pieces of information missing seemed to be from both the forecasters and the people in role of emergency managers. The intensity and potential for crippling conditions was clearly outlined in the forecast. But anyone looking at the TV could see, as the storm developed, that the snowfall forecast showed amounts from more than 2 ft to less than 6 in covered an area that you could drive across in an hour. Clearly forecasters could have told emergency planners how slight a shift in track it would take to negate the forecast. And emergency planners needed a clearcut plan to determine when to put restrictions in place, and a plan to determine what events would trigger a decision to lift them based on changing information. Then they needed to develop a plan on how to communicate change to the public.
This storm provides a lot of information on how to improve emergency planning - from a need to really understand what is in the forecast, and how to cope with rapid change.
If the lead time to do things like move emergency equipment, clear roads, get commuters with two hour commutes home, relocate transportation stock to a better place, move power company resources takes a long time, and information changes quickly, there will be a mismatch.
In this storm, the critical pieces of information missing seemed to be from both the forecasters and the people in role of emergency managers. The intensity and potential for crippling conditions was clearly outlined in the forecast. But anyone looking at the TV could see, as the storm developed, that the snowfall forecast showed amounts from more than 2 ft to less than 6 in covered an area that you could drive across in an hour. Clearly forecasters could have told emergency planners how slight a shift in track it would take to negate the forecast. And emergency planners needed a clearcut plan to determine when to put restrictions in place, and a plan to determine what events would trigger a decision to lift them based on changing information. Then they needed to develop a plan on how to communicate change to the public.
This storm provides a lot of information on how to improve emergency planning - from a need to really understand what is in the forecast, and how to cope with rapid change.
7
Rapid, last-minute changes can be more disruptive than making a decision based on imperfect information.
I ran out of coffee yesterday. I stocked up but forgot coffee. I walked from Park to 12th avenue (and back) to Fairway on mostly snowy sidewalks. (Addiction is a powerful thing.) Their were no buses, well I saw a couple over a period of around two hours, although the streets were clear. On 125th a woman going to the Bronx anxiously asked me had I seen the cross town bus. She had walked a long way. A man on crutches sat waiting at a bus stop -- and had been waiting he said for a long time. There were a lot of people besides them that I ran into, waiting, many wondering would their bus ever come. Low income workers in this city need public transportation. They can't just telecommute. Many, if they miss a day's work, miss a day's pay. This is not about Central Park and the solipsism of Manhattan. It's about all New Yorkers. And also incidentally about giving the democratically elected Mayor of New York more than 15 minutes notice and zero input.
13
I wonder what New Yorkers would have said if the storm track had veered 100 miles to the west of the prediction instead of 100 miles to the east as it did.
Probably that city only said 2 feet when we actually got 4. Either way there would have been complaints.
I for one was glad that it wasn't as bad as forecast, but that still meant that I had to clear 3' drifts.
Probably that city only said 2 feet when we actually got 4. Either way there would have been complaints.
I for one was glad that it wasn't as bad as forecast, but that still meant that I had to clear 3' drifts.
15
Ever since the chaos when Atlanta was shut down a couple of years ago by a small ice storm, I believe in getting people and cars out of the way when the forecasts are dire. The infrastructure's inadequacy isn't apparent until it's stretched to its limit. Caution was the right call under the circumstances.
66
Completely agree. Better safe than sorry and the projections on tv were really bad. The politiians are no weather gurus. They depend on their staff to make decisions. There was no win on a situation like this, which makes me think thereare no politics in weather decisions. Just like us, they are humans reacting to the apocalyptic forecasts. What can they do?
22
Safe than sorry" same old lame mantra... if you want to be totally safe, stay at home in your closet every time it rains hard, snows hard, or there is too much sun.
As a retired school school superintendent with 29 years of deciding whether to cancel school or not, I feel the pain of the politicians who had to decide how to respond to the pending storm. My rule of thumb was to err on the side of caution. It's easier to defend a "stupid decision" to close for a storm that didn't materialize than a "reckless decision" that results in accidents because we put teachers, parents, and students at risk. As one who travelled to Brooklyn after the Christmas storm a few years ago that dumped 2 feet of snow I understand completely why the mayor and Governors decided to "over-react" to the forecast… and I'm sure they are sleeping soundly tonight despite the second guessing.
229
I have sat in the same school superintendent's seat, in a location known for rough winters and frequent snowstorms. And no, I did not have to take a course in meteorology in grad school. So those 4:30 AM calls, made with the help of the highway crews, a terrific Transportation Director, and the local weather reports, were frequently nail-biters. Ultimately it came down to safety: better to have to make-up a snow day than to attend a funeral.
13
you're talking about kids.. not adults who have to be at work and return home safely, not getting stuck because some scared politician decide to shut down the entire subway system.
1
A nation of nitpickers we
With criticism always free,
Climate change is a hoax,
And do not blame the Kochs,
It's our culture of nitpickery!
With criticism always free,
Climate change is a hoax,
And do not blame the Kochs,
It's our culture of nitpickery!
32
I usually enjoy your rhymes
But I certainly didn't this time,
It made me upset,
To hear you suggest,
That climate change is all in our mind.
But I certainly didn't this time,
It made me upset,
To hear you suggest,
That climate change is all in our mind.
Agreed that it's better to be safe than sorry but the harsh criticism is justified because the grandstanding and media turned the storm into a circus. It was irresponsible and a rookie move by de Blasio to refer to the storm as one that will be the worst in history. Only a fool or a politician would make such a declaration. And even if NYC did get two feet of snow, so what? We've had storms that size before. It is winter after all. The real concern now is that all the hype by politicians and the media (especially the TV stations) will undoubtedly make New Yorkers less attentive come the next storm. We all know that politicians grandstand and yet we once again believed them. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
7
Two things. First it should be noted that the National Weather Service, not given to the same need for ratings that the media is, used the word "historic" in its forecast. Second, it wasn't the depth of the snowfall but the wind that made the storm dangerous. As someone who lived in Minnesota a long time I can tell you that snow becomes un-plowable in high wind. Be happy, we got lucky.
1
Thank you... right on! I am reminded by the end of reading your piece about the quote attributed to Henry Ford ( right or wrong) when he was found in a downtown hotel in Detrroit with a blond..." Never explain, never complain". We complain way too much.... and we don't say thank you enough. I am so incredibly tired of the lack of human generosity of those newscasters who find such glee in immediately going for the jugular. Snarky is too kind a description. From time to time couldn't they just say "so and so did the right thing by making the call that was made"?
64
The best thing to do is ignore it all.
2
Actually, it was Henry Ford II, son of Edsel, Grandson of Henry Ford and he was stopped for drunken driving with his mistress (ultimately 3rd wife, Kathleen Ross) in the car. Other than that, you pretty much nailed it. I'm not complaining, just explaining.
3
It's not the nanny state, it's the snark state. The pols did the right thing for once.
Contrast this with Bloomberg's comment in 2010 that people should come to Manhattan and go the theatre while the boros were a disaster or even de Blasio's actions a year ago when he pulled all the traffic agents off the street during a minor storm causing complete gridlock on the Eastside.
Contrast this with Bloomberg's comment in 2010 that people should come to Manhattan and go the theatre while the boros were a disaster or even de Blasio's actions a year ago when he pulled all the traffic agents off the street during a minor storm causing complete gridlock on the Eastside.
11
The forecast from the NWS predicted 2 to 3 feet of snow and blizzard conditions. The leaders needed to make decisions based upon that threat which they did. I don't think it's appropriate to second guess them now.
1
Its weather.. it is a natural phenomenon that is not controlled by men..... nothing else it needs to be said.... computers can project only to a certain accuracy.... They are modeled in simulations they are not exact.....and we are talking about thousands of acres in a 3 dimensional framework with all kinds of natural phenomenon "interfering " with the signal.... Frankly I wish the TV weatherman would stop apologizing and defending their forecasts it is what is
49
Seeing that all politics is local, nothing is more local than a storm underestimated. Unwanted legacies are made from bad snow calls, and even worse snow plowing.
I frankly would trade places with NYC in a New York nanosecond. I can't even exit my condo, with snow heaped on my front and back decks, and even the garage door held rigidly in place by drifts. I've almost forgotten wehat real air smells like. Schools are cancelled for the second straight day, and at some point, I got stuff to do, and no way to do it.
Expecting politicians to be right on weather-related decisions is rather unrealistic given how wrong they are on just about everything else. They, like we, are given the same information by our weather services, whom we usually trust. They rarely let us down, but sometimes they do.
In an uncontrollable world, weather is the most unforgiving, every so often thumbing its nose at mere mortals trying to play masters of the universe. There's only one, and it's mother nature.
I frankly would trade places with NYC in a New York nanosecond. I can't even exit my condo, with snow heaped on my front and back decks, and even the garage door held rigidly in place by drifts. I've almost forgotten wehat real air smells like. Schools are cancelled for the second straight day, and at some point, I got stuff to do, and no way to do it.
Expecting politicians to be right on weather-related decisions is rather unrealistic given how wrong they are on just about everything else. They, like we, are given the same information by our weather services, whom we usually trust. They rarely let us down, but sometimes they do.
In an uncontrollable world, weather is the most unforgiving, every so often thumbing its nose at mere mortals trying to play masters of the universe. There's only one, and it's mother nature.
67
The one thing worse than a blizzard is the reporting in anticipation of it. The weather folks know they have our attention and they have to fill the air time with content. There is so much repetition and potential for misinformation. My favorite is the replaying of the videos ad infinitum...I pray for better weather primarily so I don't have to listen to these folks...
7
Any article feat. Henry Blodget gets a thumbs up from me. Stay warm, Frank.
1
Give the politicians a break. The forecasters said massive storm. It didn't happen in NY. If it did, you'd be giving them A's. We had it here in Boston. We give them A's. But for what. They don't know. They're just politicians. They don't know anything. The Boston ones lucked out, so that get A's. The NY ones were unlucky. But, in the end, they don't know squat.
10
Just a simple reminder to Mr. Blodget, NYC is not NY State. Moreover, how is it that NJ, where GOP "Heavyweight," Chris Christie reigns supreme, and who also took the same "early" precautions as Cuomo manage to avoid the "nanny" state moniker.
Additionally, outside the city, the car is king, and the travel restrictions put in place by the governor's of NY, NJ, and CT eliminated the possibility of 100's of stranded motorists, possibly for as long as 10-12 hours, which has occurred on multiple occasions, most recently in the Buffalo area of I-90.
Mr. Blodget may not care, but many stranded motorists are at risk for hyperthermia and carbon monoxide poisoning, but then again in Blodget's world, apparently NYC is the entire universe.
The travel restrictions also allowed for quicker cleanup of major arteries on LI, which did experience a significant storm, and for the record, LI as well as the aforementioned Buffalo are also part of NYS.
Additionally, outside the city, the car is king, and the travel restrictions put in place by the governor's of NY, NJ, and CT eliminated the possibility of 100's of stranded motorists, possibly for as long as 10-12 hours, which has occurred on multiple occasions, most recently in the Buffalo area of I-90.
Mr. Blodget may not care, but many stranded motorists are at risk for hyperthermia and carbon monoxide poisoning, but then again in Blodget's world, apparently NYC is the entire universe.
The travel restrictions also allowed for quicker cleanup of major arteries on LI, which did experience a significant storm, and for the record, LI as well as the aforementioned Buffalo are also part of NYS.
68
Sorry Frank but I guess you're not a native New Yorker. AS ONE, I can say I've been through a hundred snow storms that were way more intense than this. How did we survive those without the media giving us a NON-STOP BARRAGE of gloom and doom, followed by our elected officials shutting the city completely down...for what? 5-7 inches of snow? Utterly ridiculous and one has to wonder what the motives were. Was it just a desire to "keep us safe" OR a platform to GRANDSTAND as they did with the Ebola epidemic? I think we New Yorkers are MORE THAN TOUGH ENOUGH to deal with a snow storm, thank you very much. PS - didn't DeBlasio SEND THE KIDS TO SCHOOL last year during the more severe storm while telling us to STAY HOME at the same time? Remember that?
3
As a "native New Yorker" I feel I need to school you to the indisputable fact that post-Hurricane Sandy all comparisons with prior storms - especially storms with high winds -
are invalid.
are invalid.
5
Thank you for this excellent illustration of Bruni's point.
1
Of course you couldn't know that you'd been through a hundred storms that were more intense than this one until it was over. You couldn't know that it was only 5-7 inches of snow until after it happened. Which is really kind of the point. So your complaints and capital letters are moot.
4
Manhattan is solipsism central? San Francisco gives it a good run for its money: we, too, have venal politicians posing as progressives; we're also gay-friendly, and we have better weather (at least in the winter). What's that shaking I feel?
What I want to know concerns those correspondents in "their ski-chalet best." How much did LL Bean pay the Weather Channel in product placement fees?
What I want to know concerns those correspondents in "their ski-chalet best." How much did LL Bean pay the Weather Channel in product placement fees?
Forget the nanny state canard, the second guessing, the bizarre disappointment at having dodged a bullet. What about that poor Bangladeshi immigrant delivering the curried chicken in the storm? On a motorbike! And the tips were lousy! The city wasn't shut down for him. He had to get out in the snow and work. This story hit harder than all those graphs, charts, and Upshot analyses describing the rise of inequality and the dismal condition of the working poor.
28
This one smelled fishy. The weather people and politicians were almost gleeful in their expostulations about this "historic" storm, like the excited first bearer of "big news". We here in the midwest know bad weather, and our meteorologists are just as hooked on the big story, the by now bland, repetitive trumpeting of the bad news. Just imagine that, selling the weather! How inane. But thats capitalism for you.
3
It appears that today everyone has a need to be upset, or offended, or appalled, or disrespected, or......whatever. And when this happens we turn to our government to right all these "wrongs" by "doing something", anything, as long as it doesn't require us to take responsibility and solve our own issues. Yet no matter what the government does, or doesn't do, they receive criticism from all sides. Just once I'd like to hear someone charged with making these decisions say to these (unjustified) critics "Take a Hike", or "I'd answer your question but I find it so stupid I don't know where to begin". I'm a "senior citizen" (don't we love that term) and before I die I'd like to hear a breath of fresh air from some politician who tells it like it is. I'd stand up and applaud.
16
We do what -- expect perfection from science, even weather-science? Predictions that always cone true? That's soothsaying, not science.
We expect collusion and conspiracies from leaders all the time? That's Hollywood and Moscow, not NYC and DC.
What a sad state of mind America gets into when frightened.
Science only amasses data, developes hypotheses, tests them out, refines them, and then may offer odds on what is likely. What is not. People (and ther media talking heads, forget that.)
Governors and mayors may be politicians but when they enlist disparate forces, from transports to hospitals, they too are projecting probabilities -- the expense and any shame or guilt falls on the governors and mayors, as would any gratitude and accolades. Only fools think politicians are all crooked.
Conspiracies expressignorance, confusion, fear, anger: "I falled own 'cuz Baby wanted me to get killeded and scared me, Mom."
No stormy disaster? Scientists and politicians must go on doing what they do, while some, yes, whine: "I took your pills and I caught a cold, is that what I pay you for -- listening to dumb scientists and stealing my money?"
We should thank the scientists and administrators for trying. And thank Mother Nature for saving NYC, and thank our Good Fortune, we weren't on an island in the Atlantic sitting in darkness, cold, and flooding. Without the energy to whine about idiot mayors and stupid science.
We expect collusion and conspiracies from leaders all the time? That's Hollywood and Moscow, not NYC and DC.
What a sad state of mind America gets into when frightened.
Science only amasses data, developes hypotheses, tests them out, refines them, and then may offer odds on what is likely. What is not. People (and ther media talking heads, forget that.)
Governors and mayors may be politicians but when they enlist disparate forces, from transports to hospitals, they too are projecting probabilities -- the expense and any shame or guilt falls on the governors and mayors, as would any gratitude and accolades. Only fools think politicians are all crooked.
Conspiracies expressignorance, confusion, fear, anger: "I falled own 'cuz Baby wanted me to get killeded and scared me, Mom."
No stormy disaster? Scientists and politicians must go on doing what they do, while some, yes, whine: "I took your pills and I caught a cold, is that what I pay you for -- listening to dumb scientists and stealing my money?"
We should thank the scientists and administrators for trying. And thank Mother Nature for saving NYC, and thank our Good Fortune, we weren't on an island in the Atlantic sitting in darkness, cold, and flooding. Without the energy to whine about idiot mayors and stupid science.
18
Yeah, what is it about Americans that they get outraged over everything that doesn't go their way? It's a symptom of the politicization of everything in the US.
When I was a kid, if snow didn't materialize the way it was forecast (which happened regularly) I was disappointed. That's all, disappointed, not crazy mad at the world.
When I was a kid, if snow didn't materialize the way it was forecast (which happened regularly) I was disappointed. That's all, disappointed, not crazy mad at the world.
62
You nailed it. I'm upset that you said this better than I ever could! (grins)
Weather is the universal topic of conversation.
Weather is the universal topic of conversation.
4
What if I told you all the meteorologists actually worked for the bread and milk industry?
8
Well, that explains everything. Always knew there was a hidden agenda someplace.
Either that, or the threat of snowpocalypse suddenly makes lots of folk hungry for french toast!
The Moscow subway system closes at 1 a.m. daily. NYC is the only subway system that operates 24 hours a day.
11
That's because people who work for a living and need to get to work or get home after work -- many after 1 am -- have a way of doing so. That is the way we roll in New York City.
1
Aren't parts of the NYC subway system above ground? Those areas out of commission might have shut much of the system down in a big snow storm. Or people might have been stranded in trains on such stretches of track. No heat. Very difficult to rescue them with the predicted two feet of snow on the ground. New York City was very lucky that this storm missed them, I'd say.
21
i grew up in nyc and traveled many times on the "el" during snowstorms and blizzards- never a problem, only ice storms can be considered a problem.. never has it been shut down for a snow storm or blizzard, never needed to.
Remember the icy roads in Atlanta last year? And the mayor wasn't smart enough to call it an emergency and get the cars off the roads? De Blasio, with all the weather information available, did the right thing, even if it turned out not to be as bad as advertised. "One ounce of prevention is much better that a pound of foolish treatment of casualties" from bad weather. So, no griping, please, the premature subway stoppage notwithstanding. Better lucky than accurate.
37
To use a winter storm's intensity as a political tool is a cynical ploy. Let the forecasters do their job. Let the emergency workers who clear roads and repair utility lines do their job. It is high time we de-link the political faces (Cuomo, de Blasio, Christie, Baker) from those belonging to the real people who do the real work.
6
We had two feet of snow and 5 feet drifts on eastern long island -- 60 miles from NYC. To predict a 50 mile swing is well nigh impossible, and the emergency preparations worked for us. Shame on the gripers.
111
Amazing, how the Blizzard of 2015 - predicted to be of "epic proportions" in Manhattan (1947 Redux!) was as much of a fizzle in Manhattan as Y2K and swine flu. And even more amazing is that attention is being paid to such small potato things as snowstorms when in another part of our world there are millions of displaced people suffering under the yoke of oppression and massacre in Syria and Iraq. Why was the media in such frenzies about the predictions of heavy snows in New York City? Why does the media insult us by carrying on about the deflating of pigskin footballs? Who gives a shizzle, about snow in January and football when there are people living in concentration-camp circumstances in the Middle East? Our American values are so skewed about snow and football that we can't see beyond Cuomo and the appalling corruption in Albany, Christie and his predictions of the weather disaster in NJ - the storm, dementedly named Juno - whizzed past NJ and the worst of the white footage is in coastal New England, north of Rhode Island. Face it, the social media rat race we live in doesn't mean diddly and neither do the politicians, gearing up for 2016, an election year of "epic proportions". Give us a break.
6
So I guess the next time a massive hurricane threatens your neck of the woods, we shouldn't waste our precious attention on it because it's small potatoes? Good to know.
1
A barely passable attempt at standing up for a pair of clearly incompetent liberals in-office, however if according to the author these two clowns were just reacting to newscasters and forecasters, then they are clearly not fit for the offices that they occupy because before shutting down an entire state and the city of New York, the least these two knuckleheads should have done would have been to contact one of several federal agencies such as NOAA, NASA and the like in order to get a good briefing on where the blizzard was heading before causing BILLIONS of dollars worth of economic damage by shutting down the entire state and the city.
@Cyrus Manz (San Diego): You say the pols should have contacted federal agencies such as NOAA and NASA. How do you know they didn't? I doubt if their only resource was the TV talking heads on the weather channel. I would bet you they did.
NYC was spared. I'm glad. The storm tracked East. The forecasts for where I live were exactly right. The meteorologists did a good job. Enjoy your weather and your earthquakes and mudslides and drought.
NYC was spared. I'm glad. The storm tracked East. The forecasts for where I live were exactly right. The meteorologists did a good job. Enjoy your weather and your earthquakes and mudslides and drought.
6
Cyrus Manz writes: "the least these two knuckleheads should have done would have been to contact one of several federal agencies such as NOAA, NASA and the like in order to get a good briefing on where the blizzard was heading before causing BILLIONS of dollars worth of economic damage by shutting down the entire state and the city."
Ahem. NOAA's official forecast was (direct quote here): "... potentially historic storm". The actual official prediction from NOAA, NASA, and the like was for several feet of snow.
So unless you are recommending that our elected officials ignore the best possible information available, I'm not sure what your point is.
Bruni's right: Better to overprepare and not need it than the converse.
And I am not a de Blasio fan or defender. I didn't vote for the guy and I think he's often incompetent. This wasn't one of those times.
Ahem. NOAA's official forecast was (direct quote here): "... potentially historic storm". The actual official prediction from NOAA, NASA, and the like was for several feet of snow.
So unless you are recommending that our elected officials ignore the best possible information available, I'm not sure what your point is.
Bruni's right: Better to overprepare and not need it than the converse.
And I am not a de Blasio fan or defender. I didn't vote for the guy and I think he's often incompetent. This wasn't one of those times.
6
all these smart "talkies" or journalism professor should ask our close neighbors in Long Island, eastern Connecticut and Massachusetts-- were meteorologists and the elected officials wrong to warn for the worst ? we were just lucky this time. people forgot about what happened in Buffalo area just a few weeks ago. would these people rather see that happened again ?
14
That was for Manhattan a non-historic potentially historic storm.
2
You are quite right. In this rare case, my sympathy is with the politicians - and people should remember that if the storm path had been perhaps 20 miles to the west, we would have gotten exactly what was predicted.
16
The nice thing about snowstorms is that we are spared articles and editorials about global warming.
2
@Eric of NJ: Regarding Global Warming. While we were dealing with this snowstorm, out West had record breaking 70 degree temps.
Nah, there's nothing to worry about. Time for another TV show and popcorn!
Nah, there's nothing to worry about. Time for another TV show and popcorn!
4
Dear Mr. Bruni,
Once again, you have not only "nailed it" but nailed it so eloquently!
Once again, you have not only "nailed it" but nailed it so eloquently!
3
We need more accurate weather forecasts, which means faster computers, better models, and more data gathering. What has happened to the weather service budget for research in the past decade or two? Does it have the resources to keep up with what is technologically possible?
3
I despise how we are turning into a nation of frightened children who want the government to decide what is best for us, for example to decide for us if we will be allowed to go out in the snow. Freedom is more important than safety. We are trading our freedom for an illusion of safety.
It is dangerous to allow the Governor to essentially confine us to our homes for our own good and safety. By what authority can he do this? Could he do this if 6 inches of snow was predicted, rather than 24 inches? Or to save a handful of lives, or at a whim?
It is dangerous to allow the Governor to essentially confine us to our homes for our own good and safety. By what authority can he do this? Could he do this if 6 inches of snow was predicted, rather than 24 inches? Or to save a handful of lives, or at a whim?
4
Nobody was ordered to stay in their homes. I don't recall any announcement that those who left their homes or opened for business would be arrested. The implied message I got was that if you go out, you're on your own. Don't assume public transportation, and don't expect someone to come running to rescue you if you got stuck. Elected officials, wisely in my view, gave everyone an official excuse to take the day off and stay home while at the same time reducing the possible load, and overtime wages, on emergency responders. Sounds like good government to me.
21
XY, do you really want the freedom to sit in a stranded car on an expressway for who knows how many hours? You say "to save a handful of lives, or at a whim". But you know quite well that it wasn't a whim on the Governor's part. He and other officials were working from the best weather forecasting information available, to protect you from freezing in a stranded car on an expressway, and to protect others from your disregard for their safety. If you had ben stranded, you would probably be ranting about the government's failure to protect you.
I think that your use of the Governor's prudence to rant about your right to "freedom" (the freedom to freeze in a stranded car) is despicable. Wanting to play politics about measures intended to save peoples' lives is also despicable.
I think that your use of the Governor's prudence to rant about your right to "freedom" (the freedom to freeze in a stranded car) is despicable. Wanting to play politics about measures intended to save peoples' lives is also despicable.
118
You think "saving a handful of lives at a whim" is stupid? How about if it were your own life, or your loved one's? Have you totally forgotten the bodies floating around in New Orleans after Katrina? Or the complete devastation of Sandy? I know people still struggling from the destruction of those storms. We stayed home and looked after our neighbors, 90 y.o., and also a young mom at home with little kids whose husband had to stay in NYC for his work. Shoveled 18 inches of snow from three driveways, plus what the plows threw up blocking us all in. Plus the winds are roaring here on LI. How did you help out?
24
(Oh please merciful Lord, don't let this snowball into another Benghazi.)
When I lived in the Arctic, we used to get days in January/February when the temperature would drop to -60c while the winds literally howled at 100 kilometres an hour, threatening the integrity of man's trusted engineering. I had a small apartment up there, the bedroom barely large enough to accommodate its twin-sized bed, butted up as it was near the window. On nights as I've described, it was impossible to sleep owing to the hellish racket outside and the notion that only a thin vinyl-covered barrier was keeping an angered Mother Nature at bay. The old ratty couch got shoved into the kitchen where I'd bed down for the night, in my clothes, boots close, winter outer gear purposefully sorted aside the microwave. Just in case.
So what did episodes like this teach me? Retain all due respect for storm warnings. No one laughs at weathermen quite like Mother Nature - other than dead fools who thought they could negotiate with this planet's only and truly reigning almighty. And she's been very unpredictable of late, but let's not push our luck.
When I lived in the Arctic, we used to get days in January/February when the temperature would drop to -60c while the winds literally howled at 100 kilometres an hour, threatening the integrity of man's trusted engineering. I had a small apartment up there, the bedroom barely large enough to accommodate its twin-sized bed, butted up as it was near the window. On nights as I've described, it was impossible to sleep owing to the hellish racket outside and the notion that only a thin vinyl-covered barrier was keeping an angered Mother Nature at bay. The old ratty couch got shoved into the kitchen where I'd bed down for the night, in my clothes, boots close, winter outer gear purposefully sorted aside the microwave. Just in case.
So what did episodes like this teach me? Retain all due respect for storm warnings. No one laughs at weathermen quite like Mother Nature - other than dead fools who thought they could negotiate with this planet's only and truly reigning almighty. And she's been very unpredictable of late, but let's not push our luck.
135
Frank,
Absolutely dead on.
Now how about doing us a service and turning that keen eye for detecting self centered and short sighted thinking on the question of anthropomorphic climate change?
It is one thing for our political leaders to save us from being stranded on a bridge over the Hudson in a stalled car. Quite another to be stranded in a nine billion strong population with only enough arable land to feed six billion.
Absolutely dead on.
Now how about doing us a service and turning that keen eye for detecting self centered and short sighted thinking on the question of anthropomorphic climate change?
It is one thing for our political leaders to save us from being stranded on a bridge over the Hudson in a stalled car. Quite another to be stranded in a nine billion strong population with only enough arable land to feed six billion.
27
"And they know that these days, thanks to Twitter and the like, the verdict will be especially hasty...'
No Frank, it wasn't the criticism of government overreaction that was noteworthy--it was the mass mockery of global warming/climate change scientists by thousands of Twitter twits over the past 48 hours.
"I'm going out to shovel 12 inches of global warming," was a typical, mindless tweet. Forget about the fact that global sea temperatures rose a full degree over the last 40 years due to human activity, causing heightened moisture above the sea surface, which causes modest storms to become enormous. This actually proves global warming, but don't tell that to the hordes using a snowstorm to gleefully mock climate scientists.
When a nation becomes anti-science, it is in deep trouble.
We are in deep trouble.
www.newyorkgritty.net
No Frank, it wasn't the criticism of government overreaction that was noteworthy--it was the mass mockery of global warming/climate change scientists by thousands of Twitter twits over the past 48 hours.
"I'm going out to shovel 12 inches of global warming," was a typical, mindless tweet. Forget about the fact that global sea temperatures rose a full degree over the last 40 years due to human activity, causing heightened moisture above the sea surface, which causes modest storms to become enormous. This actually proves global warming, but don't tell that to the hordes using a snowstorm to gleefully mock climate scientists.
When a nation becomes anti-science, it is in deep trouble.
We are in deep trouble.
www.newyorkgritty.net
175
There's an adage as old as cave dwellers and dragons that applies to this, "You're known by the size of the dragons you slay." Especially in this day of click-bait driven content and "content directors" (aka news directors), desperate to keep up their ratings, they readily pounce on anyone who'll say something to create controversy. Big storm (news event)? Find a politician to attack! Be a famous oracle!
In recent years, our nation has experienced erratic, super-sized weather events. Erring on side of caution is warranted.
Meteorologists typically work from the values of five to a dozen or more models. They know the underlying assumptions and those models which are most applicable to the given situation and terrain. Using straightforward, statistical analysis, and their knowledge of the models, and years of experience, they make predictions that they pass on to government leaders. Those leaders ignore danger-filled predictions at the peril of those looking to them for leadership about how to stay safe.
But, hey ... big snow storm? ... Think of a politician to attack!
In recent years, our nation has experienced erratic, super-sized weather events. Erring on side of caution is warranted.
Meteorologists typically work from the values of five to a dozen or more models. They know the underlying assumptions and those models which are most applicable to the given situation and terrain. Using straightforward, statistical analysis, and their knowledge of the models, and years of experience, they make predictions that they pass on to government leaders. Those leaders ignore danger-filled predictions at the peril of those looking to them for leadership about how to stay safe.
But, hey ... big snow storm? ... Think of a politician to attack!
35
It's winter.
It snows.
Get over it.
It snows.
Get over it.
23
"To varying degrees, Cuomo, de Blasio, Christie and other politicians overreacted, at least slightly, but who’s to blame?"
How did they overreact? All the forecasts that I saw in the days leading up to this storm predicted 2 - 3 feet of snow in and around NYC. I watched several local NYC news broadcasts at 11:00 on Monday night and the weathermen were still holding to an 18 - 24 inch forecast for the city. Closing schools, mass transit, and some local highways was the prudent thing to do, in my opinion. Have people forgotten so quickly what happened when a snow storm of similar proportions hit the area back in 2010? Cars and buses got stuck and blocked city streets for days; passengers were left stranded on subways that couldn't move; ambulances couldn't reach dying patients; abandoned cars littered area highways. Recall also what happened just last year in the Atlanta area when officials there opened schools in advance of a forecasted ice storm. Children were forced to spend the night in their classrooms when school buses were unable to navigate icy roads.
Forecasters did, in fact, predict a storm of "historic" proportions, with snow totals that would have been among the ten highest on record. It's ridiculous to suggest, as some commenters have, that officials could have waited until Monday night to see what materialized before making decisions. This Monday morning quarterbacking from people who have no responsibility is simply childish and tiresome.
How did they overreact? All the forecasts that I saw in the days leading up to this storm predicted 2 - 3 feet of snow in and around NYC. I watched several local NYC news broadcasts at 11:00 on Monday night and the weathermen were still holding to an 18 - 24 inch forecast for the city. Closing schools, mass transit, and some local highways was the prudent thing to do, in my opinion. Have people forgotten so quickly what happened when a snow storm of similar proportions hit the area back in 2010? Cars and buses got stuck and blocked city streets for days; passengers were left stranded on subways that couldn't move; ambulances couldn't reach dying patients; abandoned cars littered area highways. Recall also what happened just last year in the Atlanta area when officials there opened schools in advance of a forecasted ice storm. Children were forced to spend the night in their classrooms when school buses were unable to navigate icy roads.
Forecasters did, in fact, predict a storm of "historic" proportions, with snow totals that would have been among the ten highest on record. It's ridiculous to suggest, as some commenters have, that officials could have waited until Monday night to see what materialized before making decisions. This Monday morning quarterbacking from people who have no responsibility is simply childish and tiresome.
229
Unfortunately for America, 'the weather' is cheap news to report as opposed to real news, so the six media companies (GE, CBS, Time Warner, Newscorp, Viacom, Disney) that control 90% of the nation's media and information instinctively hit the hysteria accelerator button whenever a 'weather' incident or cheap news incident breaks out.
Real news would would actually require some effort, some investment and some moral center to produce -- not an option for the Big Six.
In this case, the micro problem is more interesting and newsworthy and you're unlikely to actually see its explanation in the news.
Why were the forecasts so bad?
Forecasters simply failed to communicate the uncertainty of the complicated forecast.
Instead of presenting the forecast as a range of possibilities, they presented the worst-case, hysteria-inducing scenario.
Some computer model forecasts predicted 30 inches of snow and the models producing these forecasts (the North American Mesoscale and European models) had good track records.
But the Global Forecast System model signaled reason for caution.
The GFS predicted closer to a foot of snow.
The more conservative model forecasts proved correct, predicting the storm to track just slightly too far out over the ocean for the blockbuster snow totals called for by the models that tracked the storm closer to the coast.
The accurate GFS forecast was there the whole time, but the 'news' hysterics ignored it, just as they tend to ignore most real news.
Real news would would actually require some effort, some investment and some moral center to produce -- not an option for the Big Six.
In this case, the micro problem is more interesting and newsworthy and you're unlikely to actually see its explanation in the news.
Why were the forecasts so bad?
Forecasters simply failed to communicate the uncertainty of the complicated forecast.
Instead of presenting the forecast as a range of possibilities, they presented the worst-case, hysteria-inducing scenario.
Some computer model forecasts predicted 30 inches of snow and the models producing these forecasts (the North American Mesoscale and European models) had good track records.
But the Global Forecast System model signaled reason for caution.
The GFS predicted closer to a foot of snow.
The more conservative model forecasts proved correct, predicting the storm to track just slightly too far out over the ocean for the blockbuster snow totals called for by the models that tracked the storm closer to the coast.
The accurate GFS forecast was there the whole time, but the 'news' hysterics ignored it, just as they tend to ignore most real news.
161
The vaunted GFS also got Hurricane Sandy _wrong_, I believe.
As to your other point, people frequently want quick and dirty capsule summaries in a developing situation like a blizzard. Nuance and context are fine but when the immediate question is, "Do I need to get home now to be with the kids?" or "Will I be able to make the grocery run tomorrow or not?", I want a quick answer. The forecasters were in a tough spot. Would it have helped the public if they had mentioned the GFS forecast, or would it merely have sowed confusion? For that matter, would it have helped elected officials decide how to respond? Given the information at hand, I would have erred on the side of caution as well if I'd been in their shoes.
As to your other point, people frequently want quick and dirty capsule summaries in a developing situation like a blizzard. Nuance and context are fine but when the immediate question is, "Do I need to get home now to be with the kids?" or "Will I be able to make the grocery run tomorrow or not?", I want a quick answer. The forecasters were in a tough spot. Would it have helped the public if they had mentioned the GFS forecast, or would it merely have sowed confusion? For that matter, would it have helped elected officials decide how to respond? Given the information at hand, I would have erred on the side of caution as well if I'd been in their shoes.
1
I've heard a lot of blame put on both political leaders and the media when dire weather predictions don't pan out. But to be fair, for better or worse, public figures and the media are only as good as the information they are given. And even meteorologists themselves have to deduce from the forecasting equipment they have, which sometimes means choosing from different models' outcomes.
29
Nanny state? Good Lord.
Weather prediction is imperfect. Anyone with half a brain knows that, and also knows -- or should -- that the media will go into a frenzy over the weather because that's what they do with all that loose on-air time they've got to use up.
I felt a little let down when my town got practically nothing instead of the 2-3 feet predicted, but what a beautifully quiet day! It was so cold here that no one went out even after the curfew was lifted. It was so peaceful.
Weather prediction is imperfect. Anyone with half a brain knows that, and also knows -- or should -- that the media will go into a frenzy over the weather because that's what they do with all that loose on-air time they've got to use up.
I felt a little let down when my town got practically nothing instead of the 2-3 feet predicted, but what a beautifully quiet day! It was so cold here that no one went out even after the curfew was lifted. It was so peaceful.
69
Those complaining should direct their efforts towards increasing the budget for NOAA to improve weather forecasting and to ensuring that the expiring NOAA satellites are replaced in a timely fashion. After that, they might consider advocating a tax increase to pay for enough snowplows and workers to clear the streets when there are cars stranded everywhere. Last, they should ponder whether they would be happier in Nantucket.
133
Cuomo and de Blasio did exactly what they should. They relied on the best, expert predictions and made their decisions. That's why we have local government. People need to get to work and their kids to school.
Right now, 11PM Tuesday, it is still windy and snowing in Boston. My street is clear, thanks to the three passes from city or contractor trucks. The first asked where would be the best place on the street to push the snow. Lucky to live in a city where the essential services are done well, even in extreme conditions.
Right now, 11PM Tuesday, it is still windy and snowing in Boston. My street is clear, thanks to the three passes from city or contractor trucks. The first asked where would be the best place on the street to push the snow. Lucky to live in a city where the essential services are done well, even in extreme conditions.
123
Sounds like Mayor Walsh was following in the large ( and deep) footprints of Mayor Menino -- the mayor with his heart in the neighborhoods.
1
We have more important things to worry about. So, I would think, does Mr. Bruni.
3
We do have more important things to worry about. So we should think, do the New Yorkers. For example, corrupt politicians, corruptive lobbyists, corrupting campaign financing, clueless and reactive citizentry...., than a storm NYC blessed to be spared!
1
And yet you took time out from all those important things you're worrying about to read this column and comment on it. How tolerant of you.
1
Having lived through hurricane Sandy and the devastation and watching people take their lives into their hands, the reporting of accurate weather is important. Stating it might be this bad, probably this bad, and might only yield this, is better than outright stating it is the storm of the century. Sandy was, I will never forget that storm, nor should NJ or the rest of the country when Christie runs for president. He choked and has reneged on his promises. While he might not have said "Brownie you are doing a heck of a job." He has failed NJ. I'm glad I no longer have to deal with his loser self, but overreacting to this potential storm, I don't think he did.
48
I can see why these are the concerns and reactions of New Yorkers to this storm. Where I am, we got socked. And the automated emergency system phone call from my town went so far as to explain that having the plows throw more snow onto our sidewalks and into our driveways after we have shoveled is "unavoidable" (I think that was the word) and we should just see our role as part of the greater clean-up effort. I actually don't see this plowing issue as "unavoidable," because when the town plowed with two plows abreast we didn't have it. I think they changed the way they plow, I suspect because it's cheaper to do it the way they do now. I question the governmental judgment in expecting people to be able to remove huge amounts of snow, including heavy street snow, from their property, multiple times. I doubt people's snow removal services are in a position to keep coming back. This is a problem government and technology could solve, I am betting, even if weather prediction accuracy is not.
29
Most of this time, I find it impossible to manually shovel the ridges or berms formed by snow plows, since they are usually formed of compressed snow and ice. Since this storm was light, fluffy snow, what the plows left behind was not too bad. But if the plows come back in a day or two after the snow is packed, it will be hopeless.
1
When I lived in rural north central Mass. , I relied on neighbors and their tractors, and they on me and mine. I was a volunteer fireman and first responder and needed to be able to get out quick. This was a very little town with equal numbers of cows and people, an equidistant long haul to any major highway. What equipment we had, for roads, fire or police, was old and worn, though well maintained. Draft horses came in handy now and then. Somehow we managed, but then we didn't have sidewalks to worry about.
When I lived in NYC and Long Island, I had mixed feelings about all the self important hustle and bustle about "emergencies" such as this. It seemed that contingencies could be put in place so everything didn't have to be shut down all at once on some imaginary predetermined schedule, and could be implemented as the weather scenario progressed and unfolded. How silly of me. Now that I live in the sunny southwest, I've come to the solution, too late of course, for those ills. I say we have the border patrol take all those caught sneaking across the border with bales of contraband on there backs, fill those bales with snow, and march them back to the other side. It's an elegantly simple solution, containing more than a few grains of poetic justice. You'd need a pipeline of course, but I hear there's one in the works. I'd be afraid many locals here would want to tap that pipeline but I'm sure it will be well guarded by private contractors. it's a win-win situation for all.
When I lived in NYC and Long Island, I had mixed feelings about all the self important hustle and bustle about "emergencies" such as this. It seemed that contingencies could be put in place so everything didn't have to be shut down all at once on some imaginary predetermined schedule, and could be implemented as the weather scenario progressed and unfolded. How silly of me. Now that I live in the sunny southwest, I've come to the solution, too late of course, for those ills. I say we have the border patrol take all those caught sneaking across the border with bales of contraband on there backs, fill those bales with snow, and march them back to the other side. It's an elegantly simple solution, containing more than a few grains of poetic justice. You'd need a pipeline of course, but I hear there's one in the works. I'd be afraid many locals here would want to tap that pipeline but I'm sure it will be well guarded by private contractors. it's a win-win situation for all.
3
You're complaining that your roads get plowed!?
7
People's quarrel is really with the fact that weather cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy. This is because a very small variation in weather systems can cause a very large difference in local weather. (Nate Silver discusses this beautifully in his book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail -- But Some Don't.)
The risk of not adequately preparing for a very serious storm is much worse than the cost of the preparation, as Katrina and Sandy demonstrated. All dealing with uncertainty requires a risk-vs.-benefit analysis. It would be great if we had certainty, but on this topic we don't and must do the best that we can.
The risk of not adequately preparing for a very serious storm is much worse than the cost of the preparation, as Katrina and Sandy demonstrated. All dealing with uncertainty requires a risk-vs.-benefit analysis. It would be great if we had certainty, but on this topic we don't and must do the best that we can.
235
It’s interesting to see Blodget play the nanny-state card. I guess this means blizzards have joined global warming as a liberal conspiracy, which is aesthetically appealing because now we’ve got both ends of the thermal spectrum covered.
City officials should be making decisions based on the best forecasting advice available, with the understanding that the weather is extremely complex and difficult to predict at the best of times. It’s better to err on the side of caution than to underestimate the damage that a big storm can produce.
But I do have a gripe.
For God’s sake, I wish the local TV weather people would put a sock in it. To avoid the tyranny of cable I have a humble antenna, and pick up only local Boston stations over the air. The repetitive, continuous wall-to-wall weather coverage of so many stations for so long was just unnecessary. Whatever useful information was provided could have been done on one station, with periodic updates on the others. And Judge Judy was preempted. This must not stand.
Hasn’t the local news guy or gal standing in the rain or snow lost its ability to thrill? Do we trust and admire people who stand out in the rain? Do we really want to take safety tips from these folks, or trust their judgment?
You can almost feel the desperation that local TV news must feel constantly, as so many other options are competing for our eyeballs. It's unbecoming.
(flame off)
City officials should be making decisions based on the best forecasting advice available, with the understanding that the weather is extremely complex and difficult to predict at the best of times. It’s better to err on the side of caution than to underestimate the damage that a big storm can produce.
But I do have a gripe.
For God’s sake, I wish the local TV weather people would put a sock in it. To avoid the tyranny of cable I have a humble antenna, and pick up only local Boston stations over the air. The repetitive, continuous wall-to-wall weather coverage of so many stations for so long was just unnecessary. Whatever useful information was provided could have been done on one station, with periodic updates on the others. And Judge Judy was preempted. This must not stand.
Hasn’t the local news guy or gal standing in the rain or snow lost its ability to thrill? Do we trust and admire people who stand out in the rain? Do we really want to take safety tips from these folks, or trust their judgment?
You can almost feel the desperation that local TV news must feel constantly, as so many other options are competing for our eyeballs. It's unbecoming.
(flame off)
310
"I pick up only local Boston stations.... I wish the TV weather people would put a sock in it." The real problem with Bostonians is that they're always talking about "sox." ;-)
5
I may be an idiot, but when a major weather event threatens, I enjoy the wall-to-wall coverage of the event. It's not like the other usual chaff of the 24/7 news cycle is all that important.
39
Unfortunately, the main options competing for our attentions are trivia. Footballs. The dresses worn to the SAGS. The rest are too trivial to mention.
4
These models give trends and correctly predicted the formation history, size and intensity of this storm which developed in days. The public should realize that they gave us warning of a big storm and it happened very similar to predicted. I am old enough to remember the famous storm that was not predicted in the 70's that closed the LIE for 5 days due to so many cars abandoned on the roadways lanes. If that storm had been predicted and traffic banned early enough we all would have been back to work in a day after the storm not a whole week.