Crime stats down, prison population up? Sentencing in the States is confusing, how can someone serve 5 life sentences? Why sentance youth to life imprisonment without parole? The young people should be given a chance for rehabilitation. Get rid of your death penalty and save a heap of money. Get rid of your guns and make them really hard to get, and watch armed robbery stats plummet! Renegotiate private prison conracts and close some down. Give sentances that suit the crime, look at what the rest of the free world does and see how you stack up.
3
I agree with getting rid of the death penalty, but in circumstances where a prisoner kills or maims a guard or a prisoner, the death penalty option should be available to the judiciary
2
Get tough on crime and crime goes down. Hmmm..... Sounds good to me. Stay the course.
3
Call me crazy, but what do incarcerated people, or parolees have to say about the drop in crime? Why not ask them? That is what I would do, until I heard something that made sense. "Why arent you committing crime anymore?"
1
All the ones I know (I grew up around many) said they never wanted to go back to prison... Seemed like it worked. The only caveat is there needs to be job training.
2
@ Frank Harder
Yes! and I'm surprised the article was so dismissive of the lead-crime connection. It is widely accepted in the medical and scientific community.
Chemical & Engineering News, February 2014
The Crimes Of Lead
Research on the toxic metal’s effects on the brain bolsters the hypothesis that childhood exposure is linked to criminal acts
http://cen.acs.org/articles/92/i5/Crimes-Lead.html
Yes! and I'm surprised the article was so dismissive of the lead-crime connection. It is widely accepted in the medical and scientific community.
Chemical & Engineering News, February 2014
The Crimes Of Lead
Research on the toxic metal’s effects on the brain bolsters the hypothesis that childhood exposure is linked to criminal acts
http://cen.acs.org/articles/92/i5/Crimes-Lead.html
2
I assume the 2,996 murders that occurred on 11 September, 2001 in New York City are not included in this trend, but I am wondering why not? Were all "acts of terror" committed on U.S. soil likewise omitted, like the 168 who died in the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 or 13 that were murdered in the Fort Hood? Safety in an age where terrorism has increased (especially the awareness and discussion), should probably include terrorism related murders.
1
"Broken Window" policies and tactics have cleaned up the Main Street. Now, let's apply thy same to the Wall Street and Business World in general. Just think about it. If the authorities start yanking down every banker for small infractions (similar to selling single cigarettes on the streets of NYC) amid public humiliation and a possibility of injury or death we will never have the financial melt-down we had in 2007. If authorities start nailing down companies for the smallest of infractions against EPA rules we'll never have BP blowout of millions of gallons of crude in the environmentally coastal areas. What works on the main street should be tried on the Wall Street and K-Street and the country will be a much nicer, friendly, corruption free. Let's do it??????
2
Anyone read the first edition of Freakanomics??? The correlation is presented, so strongly as to be essentially irrefutable, between the legalization of voluntary abortions (Roe v Wade decision, 1973) and the precipitous drop in violent crime by young American adults umpteen years later. The conclusion that anyone not actively evading logic can draw is that reproductive choice, especially after the fact of conception, is a quantifiable social good. Personally tragic, spiritually abhorrent, politically divisive/blinding/polarizing...abortion is all the these things, and never joyous. However, it appears very likely that ALL of us have benefited from legal abortion's influence over the "wantedness" of the average American child and the "readiness" of the average American parent.
7
Non-violent adults should not be behind bars. Violent adults should be behind bars for life. What kind of society do we want?
1
One where people don't sentence other people to life imprisonment based on a simplistic yes/no question.
1
Excellent news. Now that the streets are safer let's shift the resources to the white collar and financial arenas. The number of crimes against the elderly perpetuated through scams of all sorts needs to be stopped.
You do the crime in white collar and financial areas and you do the time. It is about time that a zero tolerance approach be used for this behavior.
You do the crime in white collar and financial areas and you do the time. It is about time that a zero tolerance approach be used for this behavior.
4
white collar criminals are not a physical threat to society. For them, "doing the time" should mean some sort of monitored restitution. We do not need to put these people behind bars, like we do those who are actually a violent threat to others.
NYT printed a story that estimated that financial fraud from Wall Street had caused an excess of 5,000 suicides. While this was not murder, it was most certainly manslaughter. Read the headlines; not a week goes past that another indictment, judgement, or investigation is reported against these ongoing criminal enterprises. Restitution and hard time is what these criminals will understand; trivial fines that their shareholders pay are simply not effective. When a trader sees a fellow manipulator doing the perp walk, perhaps he will reconsider his behavior the next morning when he sits down at his desk.
2
There is nothing to keep New York, according to the article the beneficiary of one of the most precipitous drops in crime, from taking the plunge. Let us heathens in the hinterlands know how it works out for you. Or is this one of those "if we are wrong, let's all be wrong and go down together" social reengineering proposals?
1
End drug prohibition, and watch the rate plummet further.
5
A lot of people commit crimes and are never apprehended. DNA testing generates new charges more than it exonerates. Many are arraigned while already serving time and would not be so easily entered into the criminal justice process but for the lesser crimes they committed. Now think about this, some people get arrested for no other reason than its protective custody.
Was the result of the fall in crime rates the result of stricter enforcement or the final reduction of lead in our environment?
2
When I lived in NYC the 3 strikes law was in effectand in the 70's, something made the violent crime rate go down. Later when the number of prisoners was drastically reduced as a result of career criminals not being able to have children and also the legalization of abortion certainly helped.
I can remember the state of NY actively seeking to house prisoners in their nearly empty prisons. Yes it is a business.
If you want absolute stupidity, how about states like TX that put people into their prisons for posession of small amounts of marijuana. It costs a lot less to keep a prison in prison in TX than in NY.
I once remember someone doing a comparison of keeping a felon in prison to tuition and fees for eastern Ivy league schools. Prison used to be more expensive.
Stop and frisk did tread on basic rights and I can't figure out why with our technology a metal detector can't easily detect the presence of metal. Also in high crime areas, having a system of CCTV's hooked to a facial recognition software system has got to be a great way to get people who have outstanding warrants.
The biggest crime in my neighborhood now was kids spray painting our street signs - we needed new ones anyway. It is nice not to have to contend with junkies looking for a means to buy their next fix by robbinh somone at knife point which was the case when I lived in NYC.
I can remember the state of NY actively seeking to house prisoners in their nearly empty prisons. Yes it is a business.
If you want absolute stupidity, how about states like TX that put people into their prisons for posession of small amounts of marijuana. It costs a lot less to keep a prison in prison in TX than in NY.
I once remember someone doing a comparison of keeping a felon in prison to tuition and fees for eastern Ivy league schools. Prison used to be more expensive.
Stop and frisk did tread on basic rights and I can't figure out why with our technology a metal detector can't easily detect the presence of metal. Also in high crime areas, having a system of CCTV's hooked to a facial recognition software system has got to be a great way to get people who have outstanding warrants.
The biggest crime in my neighborhood now was kids spray painting our street signs - we needed new ones anyway. It is nice not to have to contend with junkies looking for a means to buy their next fix by robbinh somone at knife point which was the case when I lived in NYC.
1
We don't imprison for marijuana... There's a difference in being held in municipal or county jail vs prison. Prison means a prison sentence has been passed for a crime committed. Jail is just where you go while you wait to see a judge or if you refuse to pay your fine you can sit it out. Its really nothing more than a temporary holding cell.
I'm Thirty years old and I can't remember a time when we put people in prison for small possession charges. There are a few cases where county jail is used for short term jail time but thats for something quite a bit more severe than having a joint in your pocket. Most cities here in Texas don't even arrest for marijuana anymore and haven't for a very long time.
But meh, you're a New Yorker so I guess you know everything about my state... I just didn't get the memo.
I'm Thirty years old and I can't remember a time when we put people in prison for small possession charges. There are a few cases where county jail is used for short term jail time but thats for something quite a bit more severe than having a joint in your pocket. Most cities here in Texas don't even arrest for marijuana anymore and haven't for a very long time.
But meh, you're a New Yorker so I guess you know everything about my state... I just didn't get the memo.
3
What does a plot of crime rate and gun ownership rate over time look like?
2
Same as crime rate and car ownership...car is stolen, stripped down for sale or used as a crime force multiplier, to commit more widely distributed crime. Criminals don't steal or car jack because they are without transportation. By the way, lots of mj advocates here who simply cannot think through the negative effects of their culture on our culture. I thought our taxes paid for no smoking campaigns?
OK, crime has declined precipitously, that is great, but it is still way too high. Pulling back on policing is not the answer. Policing is not the only issue here, there are societal issues that need to be addressed as well. We need to look at this holistically, not by looking for a scapegoat.
How does this "analysis" fail to mention the national trend for police departments to under report crime stats for monetary incentives?
This article is a new low in journalism. There are thousands of articles on this topic "under reported crime statistics" on Google.
NYPD’s CompStat Rigged:
http://nypost.com/2006/05/08/crime-stats-rigged-cop-honcho-rapped/
Denver underreports crime on public website since 2009
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_23524474/officer-error-software-trouble-ske...
Crimes underreported by police include robbery, rape
http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/watchdogreports/crimes-underreported-by...
Inaccurate LAPD crime statistics prompt larger investigation
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-lapd-crime-stats-20140811-st...
This article is a new low in journalism. There are thousands of articles on this topic "under reported crime statistics" on Google.
NYPD’s CompStat Rigged:
http://nypost.com/2006/05/08/crime-stats-rigged-cop-honcho-rapped/
Denver underreports crime on public website since 2009
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_23524474/officer-error-software-trouble-ske...
Crimes underreported by police include robbery, rape
http://www.jsonline.com/watchdog/watchdogreports/crimes-underreported-by...
Inaccurate LAPD crime statistics prompt larger investigation
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-lapd-crime-stats-20140811-st...
4
the strongest correlation with crime rates is early life lead exposure. the causation routes are now well know. Lead interferes with calcium uptake in developing brains in ages younger than 4 or so, which at even very low levels (far below the EPA limits) can result in diminished judgement and impulse control. this sets the stage for later problems in school and society. It is likely that lead is in part responsible for the persistent school performance gap between children raised in poor quality inner city/industrial environments and those raised in cleaner and newer suburbs.
3
"CompStat" and similar tracking systems are sensible and effective deterrents, since policing becomes more flexible - manpower is focused where crime is actually occurring.
Incarceration, and other alternatives such as drug and mental health treatment, also contribute, since there is not a "one-to-one" ratio of criminal to crime. One offender is usually responsible for multiple crimes.
However, one item is still missing. Unlike Canada, and other "western" countries where crime has dropped dramatically, the US still does not have comprehensive and effective gun control - especially with respect to those firearms, often hand guns, mostly commonly used during the commission of a crime.
Incarceration, and other alternatives such as drug and mental health treatment, also contribute, since there is not a "one-to-one" ratio of criminal to crime. One offender is usually responsible for multiple crimes.
However, one item is still missing. Unlike Canada, and other "western" countries where crime has dropped dramatically, the US still does not have comprehensive and effective gun control - especially with respect to those firearms, often hand guns, mostly commonly used during the commission of a crime.
2
Its unfortunate but freedom itself is dangerous. As long as we are free then people have the freedom to choose to be evil and do harm to others. The idea behind the social contract is that most of us would choose to be good decent people. But, the choice is still there. The facts remain that in a free society the vast majority of us choose to be good. People can throw in faith arguments or whatever, it doesn't matter for the purposes of this explanation. Now as tragic things happen people tend to look for a way to prevent it from ever happening again. To protect people, the intent is good and just. But you have to give up your freedom in order to be safe. The only way to be absolutely safe is to have absolutely no freedom at all. Then no one can ever hurt you because we are not free to act on our own. If you take away guns, our constitutional right and freedom, then another issue will come up. And another law will have to be made, another freedom taken away. Freedom can be a scary things! It comes with a lot of responsibility. But ultimately you have to decide if you want to be free, or be absolutely safe. Most of us choose to be free, and we will fight for our safety collectively in a social contract with one another. If my neighbor is in danger I will give him aid. But if my neighbor tries to take my freedoms from me then he is my enemy.
In short, Texas has no right to tell New York how to live... And the reverse is true. Enact gun control in your state, leave us alone.
In short, Texas has no right to tell New York how to live... And the reverse is true. Enact gun control in your state, leave us alone.
1
You mean effective gun control like in France, which saw two murderers with banned weapons kill nearly two dozen people including police officers who were sitting ducks?
Or in Norway, with a single gun man took out dozens of people with a banned weapon?
I guess those laws were very effective.
Effective for the murderers (who always ignore the law anyway), who were able to kill, without fear of any law abiding citizen shooting back.
Or in Norway, with a single gun man took out dozens of people with a banned weapon?
I guess those laws were very effective.
Effective for the murderers (who always ignore the law anyway), who were able to kill, without fear of any law abiding citizen shooting back.
1
There's a huge and heated debate going on for a while now, its not exactly new, about whether teachers should be permitted to carry concealed handguns on campuses. The argument is that if a teacher is armed then a student attempting to go on a rampage would end rather abruptly when a teacher acts to protect the lives of everyone in the immediate vicinity of the criminal. This argument resonates with me. Good people having guns enables them to protect lives by either a show of force (Hopefully the mere presence of someone capable of fighting back is enough to make them stand down), or by taking the life of the criminal to protect the lives of innocent people.
Then there's the argument that taking a life to protect a life is meaningless. Well not necessarily. The criminal made a decision to do harm to others. The victim was given no such choice. To be a victim means to have your will taken from you by force. It can be argued that the life of the victim is worth more than the life of the criminal who acts on his/her own free will to do harm to others. The victim has no intent to do harm and, I'm sure if we asked, would prefer to live life without being harmed by someone else against their will. An armed teacher has the ability to take the life of the criminal to spare the life of the victim. Thats good math in my opinion. Victims are usually pretty thrilled about being saved from murder.
Then there's the argument that taking a life to protect a life is meaningless. Well not necessarily. The criminal made a decision to do harm to others. The victim was given no such choice. To be a victim means to have your will taken from you by force. It can be argued that the life of the victim is worth more than the life of the criminal who acts on his/her own free will to do harm to others. The victim has no intent to do harm and, I'm sure if we asked, would prefer to live life without being harmed by someone else against their will. An armed teacher has the ability to take the life of the criminal to spare the life of the victim. Thats good math in my opinion. Victims are usually pretty thrilled about being saved from murder.
The more harshly a first offense is punished, the less likely a future offense is, but harsher punishments for successive offenses have less deterrent effect on the individual and make less sense for society. That’s what a criminal justice professor my father knew said in the early 1990s was the wisdom of his field. He added that these propositions were contrary to our ideas of justice and fairness, and he could not imagine Americans approving them. I guess he was half-right.
We have one of the largest prison populations in the world because we have for-profit prisons - a huge and growing with lobbyists advocating ( or even bribing) our elected politicians to put more and more people in such prisons, so the prison industrial complex could get richer. These prisons must be fed a steady stream of prisoners lest they fail to make a profit (or justify their minimum contractual fees). I am sure, if we eliminate private prisons we will watch our prison population shrink.
4
You know I actually thought this was just insanity. But I took the time to google it a little and sure enough Jor-El is actually talking about a real thing!
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-prison-industry-in-the-united-states-bi...
Although, I still have a hard time sympathizing with someone criminals. Even in the article I link they don't dispute the fact that these guys are actually criminals. They're just saying the sentencing is ridiculously long for the crimes. I'm not entirely sure if I care or not... I'm on the fence. Do I care that a criminal goes to jail for a stupid long time? He's still a criminal. I mean if you don't want to go to jail its literally as simple as don't do something illegal. Thats the part that has me on the fence. But ya know... Teenagers do really stupid stuff.
Maybe a compromise? Reduce the sentencing but keep the three strikes rule. If you repeat your criminal activity THREE TIMES then I make no apologies for being unsympathetic.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-prison-industry-in-the-united-states-bi...
Although, I still have a hard time sympathizing with someone criminals. Even in the article I link they don't dispute the fact that these guys are actually criminals. They're just saying the sentencing is ridiculously long for the crimes. I'm not entirely sure if I care or not... I'm on the fence. Do I care that a criminal goes to jail for a stupid long time? He's still a criminal. I mean if you don't want to go to jail its literally as simple as don't do something illegal. Thats the part that has me on the fence. But ya know... Teenagers do really stupid stuff.
Maybe a compromise? Reduce the sentencing but keep the three strikes rule. If you repeat your criminal activity THREE TIMES then I make no apologies for being unsympathetic.
1
Let us all not forget, speaking for the NYC, the police were in league with the criminals for years.
The NYPD has a deep history of corruption and graft , like most big city police dept's. The allure of easy money from drug profits were too hard to pass up.
Police in NYC were not only robbing drug dealers they were taking the drugs and redistributing them.
The so called criminal justice system starting with the police is a ploy to keep segments of the population either incarcerated or on their way to being incarcerated.
Giuliani had a mandatory sentencing guideline, his answer was not community solutions but incarceration. In fact he refused to work with black/brown communities. Although the crime rate dropped drastically. Same with Bloomberg, he sent stop question and frisk into hyper space despite crime dropping. That is why so many of the stops produced nothing but resentment and law suits. These politicians exploited crime to appear tough, yet their methods were asinine.
The fact is crime is a business, it sells well. It employs lower middle class whites from rural and suburban areas. Giving them a career for life. It keeps prosecutors and asst, DA 's employed. Who despite their unethical practices go on to lucrative careers. Judges and court staff , jail and prison guards etc etc.
The system is rotten to the core. The politicians are like "pimps" and police like "gangsters". The communities are a war zone, in peace time....
The NYPD has a deep history of corruption and graft , like most big city police dept's. The allure of easy money from drug profits were too hard to pass up.
Police in NYC were not only robbing drug dealers they were taking the drugs and redistributing them.
The so called criminal justice system starting with the police is a ploy to keep segments of the population either incarcerated or on their way to being incarcerated.
Giuliani had a mandatory sentencing guideline, his answer was not community solutions but incarceration. In fact he refused to work with black/brown communities. Although the crime rate dropped drastically. Same with Bloomberg, he sent stop question and frisk into hyper space despite crime dropping. That is why so many of the stops produced nothing but resentment and law suits. These politicians exploited crime to appear tough, yet their methods were asinine.
The fact is crime is a business, it sells well. It employs lower middle class whites from rural and suburban areas. Giving them a career for life. It keeps prosecutors and asst, DA 's employed. Who despite their unethical practices go on to lucrative careers. Judges and court staff , jail and prison guards etc etc.
The system is rotten to the core. The politicians are like "pimps" and police like "gangsters". The communities are a war zone, in peace time....
11
For years, researchers like myself pleaded with policymakers to see the wrongheadedness of stop and risk, mandatory sentences and imprisoning non-violent drug offenders. I can't recall the number of times I made moral arguments about how only China imprisoned so many of its citizens and that no one else on the planet (not even Iran, Russia or China) sentenced kids to die. Then, about 5 years ago, I noticed a subtle change in my home state of Pennsylvania. Suddenly liberals and conservatives started to question the status quo. How foolish I had been to talk about research, fairness and rehabilitation. What swayed both sides could finally agree on was how "tough on crime" policies cost too much.
Mayors and state senators were amazed to hear that after 9 months, there is "no value added" to keeping a kid locked up. The same year the Governor of Pennsylvania approved the most expensive prison expansion in US history schools in Philadelphia didn't have toilet paper in bathrooms. With Pennsylvania taxpayers paying millions for the 500 men and women sent to prison for because of crimes they committed as teenagers (even as the Supreme Court declared such sentences unconstitutional) elected officials started to change course. No one could deny the absurdity of it all any longer. While I am not thrilled dollars and sense (as opposed to a reimagined notion of justice) made them wake up, I am just relieved something did.
Mayors and state senators were amazed to hear that after 9 months, there is "no value added" to keeping a kid locked up. The same year the Governor of Pennsylvania approved the most expensive prison expansion in US history schools in Philadelphia didn't have toilet paper in bathrooms. With Pennsylvania taxpayers paying millions for the 500 men and women sent to prison for because of crimes they committed as teenagers (even as the Supreme Court declared such sentences unconstitutional) elected officials started to change course. No one could deny the absurdity of it all any longer. While I am not thrilled dollars and sense (as opposed to a reimagined notion of justice) made them wake up, I am just relieved something did.
7
@Maria
"after 9 months, there is "no value added" to keeping a kid locked up"
Really? Not even the "value added" of preventing that person from committing more murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, etc?
You don't seem to get it. No one gets really long sentences for a single minor crime. It is either major crimes or a collection of lesser ones.
While they are locked up, the rest of society is reasonably assured that that individual is not capable of committing additional crimes outside.
"after 9 months, there is "no value added" to keeping a kid locked up"
Really? Not even the "value added" of preventing that person from committing more murders, rapes, robberies, assaults, etc?
You don't seem to get it. No one gets really long sentences for a single minor crime. It is either major crimes or a collection of lesser ones.
While they are locked up, the rest of society is reasonably assured that that individual is not capable of committing additional crimes outside.
1
I don't see much mention of the Lead-Crime Hypothesis but as far as I know it's still considered one of the more credible (partial) explanations for both the growth and the decline of the crime rate.
3
Only in the US do we feel the urge to "fix" what seems to be working so well.
Murders in NY and DC fall by a factor of 5, and if you plot the decline it is the exact inverse of the increase in incarceration, and we feel there is a need to "fix it"?
Really?
Whatever it costs to keep criminals in prison is trivial compared to the devastation that an additional 1,900 murders a year in NYC alone would bring.
What ever happened to "If it ain't broke, don't fix it"?
Murders in NY and DC fall by a factor of 5, and if you plot the decline it is the exact inverse of the increase in incarceration, and we feel there is a need to "fix it"?
Really?
Whatever it costs to keep criminals in prison is trivial compared to the devastation that an additional 1,900 murders a year in NYC alone would bring.
What ever happened to "If it ain't broke, don't fix it"?
5
We spent over US$1,000,000,000,000 ($1T) to go after the murderers of 3,000 Americans in NY and DC on 9/11.
Yet we complain about spending $10B to keep in prison the people that were murdering an additional 10,000 Americans every year?
Really?
So incarceration "only" reduces murders by 10-25%? "Only"? Wow, that is "only" 2,000-5,000 lives a year saved. Plus "only" 20,000-50,000 per year shot. Plus "only" 15,000-40,000 per year robbed.
As yourselves, how much would you be willing to pay in taxes to prevent all the murders, shootings, robberies, etc above that represent "only" a 10-25% reduction in crime? Then multiply it by the US population.
That is the proper amount to spend on incarceration.
Yet we complain about spending $10B to keep in prison the people that were murdering an additional 10,000 Americans every year?
Really?
So incarceration "only" reduces murders by 10-25%? "Only"? Wow, that is "only" 2,000-5,000 lives a year saved. Plus "only" 20,000-50,000 per year shot. Plus "only" 15,000-40,000 per year robbed.
As yourselves, how much would you be willing to pay in taxes to prevent all the murders, shootings, robberies, etc above that represent "only" a 10-25% reduction in crime? Then multiply it by the US population.
That is the proper amount to spend on incarceration.
4
“Canada, with practically none of the policy changes we point to here, had a comparable decline in crime over the same period.”
2
@Matt Mulligan
Really? Name one Canadian city that had its murder rate reduced by a factor of 7 - like New York City (from over 2,100 murders/year to 300).
Really? Name one Canadian city that had its murder rate reduced by a factor of 7 - like New York City (from over 2,100 murders/year to 300).
2
I noticed that, once upon a time (actually 1995), Franklin E. Zimring (he of the "criminological astrology" quote) was scoffing at advocates of incarceration.
Back then he pointed out that incarceration had increased but, after a downturn, violent crime had turned up again.
Now Professor Zimring admits that violent crime rates have declined precipitously, but he still claims that incarceration advocates were wrong!
Apparently, what counted as evidence then (the decline in violent crime) no longer counts as evidence today.
The only constant is Professor Zimring's conviction that incarceration does not work.
For Zimring's review article in 1995 see: http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article...
Back then he pointed out that incarceration had increased but, after a downturn, violent crime had turned up again.
Now Professor Zimring admits that violent crime rates have declined precipitously, but he still claims that incarceration advocates were wrong!
Apparently, what counted as evidence then (the decline in violent crime) no longer counts as evidence today.
The only constant is Professor Zimring's conviction that incarceration does not work.
For Zimring's review article in 1995 see: http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article...
1
Hooray fro Dr. Nagin...its about time they start to realize OUR PRISONS DO NOT SUBSTITUTE FOR MENTAL HEALTH HOSPITALS....Gawd Almighty!!!!!! wake up people!!!!
2
So Sad Mom:
I don't know of anyone who suggests that prisons are a substitute for mental health hospitals.
Prisons are for the punishment for crimes, deterrence and incapacitation, They aren't hospitals.
I don't know of anyone who suggests that prisons are a substitute for mental health hospitals.
Prisons are for the punishment for crimes, deterrence and incapacitation, They aren't hospitals.
To select 1975 as a start year is to over supply good news.
Only now are we getting back to below 1965 incidence rates.
A fuller cycle is found below. That said we have made huge progress since the peak in the early 90's.
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf
Only now are we getting back to below 1965 incidence rates.
A fuller cycle is found below. That said we have made huge progress since the peak in the early 90's.
http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf
3
But you have to keep in mind that the 1940-1965 period was the true aberration in American crime rates. Many long for these "good old days" (though I suspect many African-Americans, whose victimization often went unreported and was often enabled by law enforcement, would disagree with that label) but that period marked a significant low point in criminal behavior. If you look back to the 1920s and earlier in the 20th century--not to mention the lawless periods, particularly in the West and South in the mid to late 19th century--the higher crime rates of the 80s and 90s aren't that unusual after all.
One of the demographic characteristics that also marked the 1940-1965 period was the unusually low percentage of the population between the ages of 16 and 25--and during WWII and Korea, the large percentage of those persons serving in the military. Any academic expert in criminology will tell you that the most significant factor in any society's crime rate is the percentage of the population ages 16-25. The vast majority of crimes are committed by that age cohort. When it goes down, as is presently the case, crime goes down. As the article noted, Canada's crime rates went down at the same level as the US's without pursuing the costly draconian measures that this country has. In no small part because lengthy sentences end up incarcerating people beyond the time they are a risk to the public.
One of the demographic characteristics that also marked the 1940-1965 period was the unusually low percentage of the population between the ages of 16 and 25--and during WWII and Korea, the large percentage of those persons serving in the military. Any academic expert in criminology will tell you that the most significant factor in any society's crime rate is the percentage of the population ages 16-25. The vast majority of crimes are committed by that age cohort. When it goes down, as is presently the case, crime goes down. As the article noted, Canada's crime rates went down at the same level as the US's without pursuing the costly draconian measures that this country has. In no small part because lengthy sentences end up incarcerating people beyond the time they are a risk to the public.
The link you provide (thanks!) only refers to homicides but it probably correlates with other violent crime.
Looking at the chart over time makes me think it correlates with the belief that drugs were harmless. I think that is not widely held any more.
Looking at the chart over time makes me think it correlates with the belief that drugs were harmless. I think that is not widely held any more.
How has the murder rate gone down only 56% when we went from 2,245 murders to 328?
One figure is for the city, the other for the country as a whole.
1
A little bit like the person happy with the diet that led to the weight loss declaring: "Thank goodness - I can finally get off that diet now".
Part deux: when criminals are in prison - we can be reasonably sure that they are not concomitantly engaged in criminal acts
Part deux: when criminals are in prison - we can be reasonably sure that they are not concomitantly engaged in criminal acts
4
When people get fed up with wasting billions of tax dollars on an immoral and counterproductive prison/industrial complex, all they have to do is hold their elected representatives accountable. Our tax dollars could be used much more productively, for example to support infrastructure, education, health care, etc.
3
I agree that availability of abortion has had a huge effect on the crime rate. I will advance one other theory. And that is use of Internet and online gaming. Any things that can take young adults away from a localized crime environment and replace it with a more positive communal experience can only be a good thing.
2
I must concur; as a criminal justice major in college and a former public defender, since retired, I see many who stay home, read the news, play games and take courses online, taking them off the streets and away from potential criminal environments. Staying home and pounding the keyboard, whether for news commentary, personal correspondence, or writing the next great American novel, keeps young people constructively engaged and out of the streets, where they could get into trouble.
1
Let us hope we might as a nation finally come to our senses! But I wouldn't think it will happen soon & without a great & sustained push. Don't forget that upstate prisons here in New York were a progressive governors's cure for rural poverty - both their construction & then their operation provided jobs mostly for white people, fed by the criminal justice system's harvest of urban poverty among people of color. The current policing & incarceration system likewise is making some people very rich & providing a livelihood for others & with the wind-down of the Afghanistan war we're funneling all these weapons & tanks to city police forces. They will not go quietly. The US has many money-making schemes that are not good for us & the runners of those schemes are busy night & day convincing the public we need them anyway - fracking, coal - all of fossil fuel really - tobacco, the munitions & fighter plane industries that even the Army doesn't want anymore, & on it goes. That any of these industries is wasteful & damaging & not the best solution matters not at all as long as the owners can turn a buck.
1
I propose crime has gone down, especially in minority communities, as a lagging positive effect of this nation's civil rights victories. The economy goes up and down, yes, but if people have a core expectation that if they act right (blacks and Latinos both believe above whites that college is a ticket to the American Dream), they can make it. That changes the norms of hardscrabble neighborhoods enough to make a difference. If you noticed, nowadays, most violent crime, the one we're more concerned with, happens within several square blocks of the impoverished inner city, where hopelessness continues to reign. I caution, however, that the United States better get a handle on the whole inequality thing before the poor catch on and things go bad again.
4
Cars are manufacture to be more crash resistant... So does that mean we should no longer require people to wear seat belts???? Should drunk driving enforcement be reduced since there are less deaths? Or should the legal limit be raised because somehow people are "magically" more responsible??? Who comes up with this stuff???
5
Let's not forget the vast improvements in the availability and efficacy of mental health and substance abuse clinics (though there is still much to be done). Sure, lock up violent people, but they'll keep coming. Which is right where we were in 1990. Treat the symptoms, cure the problem.
1
If we believe that police tactics can change crime rates, then we should study police tactics used by Japan, Canada, and several other countries with low crime rates. Also, what did the US police fail to do when crime was increasing? How do the police prevent homicides, which mostly occur indoors between police who know each other? Why did a generation of mostly young men commit more crime than the current generation? Maybe we should be more modest about claims of cause and effect of complex social-economic activity.
2
Well before we start to rethink the "tough on crime" strategy somebody had better start to think of a strategy as to how to deal with Prison System/Industrial Complex that has its own K Street operation in full swing.
Perhaps the newly built and subsidized prisons can now become the repository for the influx of Illegal immigrants that are pouring across the border. That should keep the borders open and the coffers full for decades to come.
Perhaps the newly built and subsidized prisons can now become the repository for the influx of Illegal immigrants that are pouring across the border. That should keep the borders open and the coffers full for decades to come.
4
"Higher imprisonment might explain from 10 percent to, at most, 25 percent of the crime drop since the early 1990s,"
So, we are willing to accept an increase of the crime rate of between 10 and 25 percent by abandoning the high imprisonment rate? I, for one, am not willing to make that trade off even if the expert opinion of Mr. Rosenfeld is correct.
So, we are willing to accept an increase of the crime rate of between 10 and 25 percent by abandoning the high imprisonment rate? I, for one, am not willing to make that trade off even if the expert opinion of Mr. Rosenfeld is correct.
6
Are you willing to imprison citizens for a number of years disproportionate to their crimes for a minimal decrease in the crime rate?
1
As the authors of Freakonomics pointed out, The most likely cause of the drop in violent crime is the availability of abortion in 1973. By definition, an abortion means ending an unwanted pregnancy. Sociologists who have interviewed violent criminals found something startling in common--most of them knew they were unwanted and unloved as children, so they never learned empathy. Since there were fewer unwanted children born after 1973, there were correspondingly fewer of them growing up as adults by the early 90's.
10
David, I'm not sure the Freakonomics analysis makes sense in the larger picture. Canada saw a similar peak in violent crime in 1991-1992 and then a very similar drop. However, they legalized abortion around 4 years before the United States did. *If* the drop in violent crime was being driven by legal access to abortion we'd expect to see the Canadian statistics to precede ours by 4 years. We don't see that though.
2
Let's see...we had a crime wave, we got tough on it and locked up a whole lot of people, and crime went down. Now we want to get soft on criminals? Watch for crime to go right back up again.
4
"“Canada, with practically none of the policy changes we point to here, had a comparable decline in crime over the same period,” said Franklin E. Zimring, a law professsor and an expert in criminal justice at the University of California."
2
If we are to have the death penalty, on the supposition that it might have some deterrent effect, it's time that it be applied, mandatorily, to elected officials. We need a constitutional amendment that requires four little words be added to any elected official's oath of office: "...under penalty of death."
Elected officials, federal, state and local, should be subject to a mandatory death penalty if convicted of any felony committed during their term of office, or before they take office. This would go far in restoring the public's faith and confidence in their elected officials. At present, there is no longer any sense of public confidence. Elected officials are almost universally seen as bought and paid for, by their rich campaign contributors.
Elected officials, federal, state and local, should be subject to a mandatory death penalty if convicted of any felony committed during their term of office, or before they take office. This would go far in restoring the public's faith and confidence in their elected officials. At present, there is no longer any sense of public confidence. Elected officials are almost universally seen as bought and paid for, by their rich campaign contributors.
4
This is an excellent idea; if we had the mandatory death penalty for political corruption in Illinois, which vigorously competes with Louisiana and New Jersey, as the most corrupt state in the union, we would have executed four of our previous former Governors, including one still serving Federal time, over the previous 45 years!
1
What if incarceration helps, but not for the "right" reasons? See, what we have done is to warehouse many of the people for whom our society has little to offer: poor young males from certain minority groups and the mentally ill. Mass incarceration of such groups allows the threat inherent in dispossessed young men anywhere to be mitigated. It also frees up resources for everyone else. Problem solved without having to provide opportunity or education. No need to effect real social change, just sow fear and lock 'em up.
The USA establishment created an under class American from it's roots in slavery to Jim Crow to segregation. Blacks in both the north and south have been marginalized economically. Ghettos are where extracting a living requires criminal enterprises because sometimes there is nothing else. The sellers are black and the buyers are white. We all know who goes to prison. The establishment's solution is to build more prisons and strip black Americans incarcerated of their unalienable rights when they have served their time. Now they don't want to pay for all these prisons. I'll bet they are to frightened about not being able to control blacks and won't change a thing.
4
For years, researchers like myself pleaded with to policymakers to sending everyone to prison for so long. I can't recall the number of times I made moral arguments about how only China imprisoned so many of its citizens and that no one else on the planet (not even Iran, Russia or China) sentenced teenagers to die in prison. Then, about 5 years ago, I noticed a subtle change in my home state of Pennsylvania, suddenly liberals and conservatives started to see how little 25 years of being tough on crime had accomplished. How foolish the experts were to focus on fairness, justice and investing in youth. What swayed both sides was how "tough on crime" policies cost too much.
Mayors and state senators were amazed to hear that after 9 months, there is "no value added" to keeping a kid locked up, it was more "cost-effective" to provide therapy and treatment in schools and homes. But, more than that, when the Governor of Pennsylvania approved the largest prison expansion in US history just as schools in Philadelphia didn't have toilet paper in bathrooms and the state had spent millions imprisoning nearly 500 men and women - for life- for crimes they committed as teenagers, even the toughest law and order guys started to wonder what the heck we were doing.
And while I am not thrilled dollars and sense made them wake up, I am just relieved something did.
Mayors and state senators were amazed to hear that after 9 months, there is "no value added" to keeping a kid locked up, it was more "cost-effective" to provide therapy and treatment in schools and homes. But, more than that, when the Governor of Pennsylvania approved the largest prison expansion in US history just as schools in Philadelphia didn't have toilet paper in bathrooms and the state had spent millions imprisoning nearly 500 men and women - for life- for crimes they committed as teenagers, even the toughest law and order guys started to wonder what the heck we were doing.
And while I am not thrilled dollars and sense made them wake up, I am just relieved something did.
4
In 1974 in college, I took a "Prisoners' Rights Seminar" with an extremely liberal professor. About six months ago, I saw Newt Gingrich on Fox News, espousing those very same ideas. Although, I am no longer the liberal that I once was in my college days, I found myself agreeing down the line, as Newt ticket-off numerous fiscally sound and innovative ideas, which ironically coincided with those of that extremely liberal professor. Could it be that Mr. Gingrich's fiscally sound criminal justice reform policies also make sense in reducing incarceration rates?
1
Here we go again.
Since 1980 we have cut the number of homicides and violent crime in half -- and every year brings lower crime rates.
We have the scourge of our inner cities on the run. So what do we propose to do? We are urged to abandon the very policies that have saved the lives of tens of thousands of young black men.
Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. I am sure there is room for reform. But it needs to be deliberate and evidence-based.
Since 1980 we have cut the number of homicides and violent crime in half -- and every year brings lower crime rates.
We have the scourge of our inner cities on the run. So what do we propose to do? We are urged to abandon the very policies that have saved the lives of tens of thousands of young black men.
Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. I am sure there is room for reform. But it needs to be deliberate and evidence-based.
16
Read the article, no one knows why the drop, and surely the policies your in favor of, have had little impact. Perhaps it was removing lead from the environment and gas that had the biggest impact. You want evidence based policy, lets talk evidence based.
7
Policies that saved the lives of black men?! As the article implies, correlation clearly does not equate to causation. The example: crime went down in Canada, too. That without locking up tens of thousands of black nonviolent offenders, whose criminal records will not only impact the rest of their existence, but the next generation's too. I'm sure we all hope things will continue to improve despite it all.
You talk about evidence. Prove what "very policies" saved the lives of tens of thousands of young black men. Keep in mind that the cops are usually called after the killing although I'm not saying smart policing might prevent some retaliations. Improved medical care also deserves mention for reducing the murder rate as it did the rate of being killed versus "only" being maimed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
You talk about evidence. Prove what "very policies" saved the lives of tens of thousands of young black men. Keep in mind that the cops are usually called after the killing although I'm not saying smart policing might prevent some retaliations. Improved medical care also deserves mention for reducing the murder rate as it did the rate of being killed versus "only" being maimed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
5
"Here we go again"...and guess who was president during the epidemic of crime: author of your quoted sentence, Ronald Reagan, and his successor George H.
Guess we should also get as far away from their policies as possible as well. But then you would probably argue crime is completely unrelated to federal policy because the criminal justice system is a state/local institution.
Guess we should also get as far away from their policies as possible as well. But then you would probably argue crime is completely unrelated to federal policy because the criminal justice system is a state/local institution.
1
I note with interest that there is no credit given to the American people.
The Democrats created this police state nation and now another Democrat, President Obama, who spent his formative years in Indonesia without learning the American cultural yearning for freedom, will now reinforce the Democrat police state.
I'll never vote again.
The Democrats created this police state nation and now another Democrat, President Obama, who spent his formative years in Indonesia without learning the American cultural yearning for freedom, will now reinforce the Democrat police state.
I'll never vote again.
2
This is akin to a psychotic deciding not to take his medication because he no longer has the symptoms while ignoring the efficacy of the cure.
11
Could it be that life is better,for the lower-class.that the slow but steady accumulation of victories in the courts and at the polls has given people hope that life is worth investing in?
2
Better access to contraception and legalisation of abortions may have helped there some.
12
That's what Freakonomics argues.
3
And maybe one day we'll also rethink our massive spending on domestic security and national defense. More Americans die each month at each others' hands by drunk driving and gun violence than died on 9/11; more still die from ill health exacerbated by our poor diets and care policies. We'll save the most American lives when we confront the boogie man in the mirror. Statistically, the threats of street criminals and foreign bad actors are minor. But incarceration and national defense is primarily about control and less about saving lives.
5
If that type of inane reasoning was credible, we should then prohibit the installation of bathtubs in our homes. More Americans die in "slip and fall" accidents in their bathtubs, than die in either auto accidents, or by misuse of firearms!
1
The profound dishonesty of the Times is shameless. When you isolate out those experts you disagree with and label their political affiliation, then do not name the political affiliations of those who are liberal, with whom you agree, at least readers have an easy roadmap to your biases.
5
Thats the ticket, you have high blood pressure, you cut the salt, you start working out and you take blood pressure medication. Your BP is finally down for the first time in a long time, so what do you do now ? "Rethink" your strategy ?
9
Demographics? proportionally more 18-28 year olds then, fewer now?
1
exactly..here we go...crime rates go up and down for three reasons..
1-demographics
2-demographics
3-demographics..
but you can bet idea bankrupt demagogic pols will take credit for it(when it goes down) and the public will believe them
1-demographics
2-demographics
3-demographics..
but you can bet idea bankrupt demagogic pols will take credit for it(when it goes down) and the public will believe them
4
Whether the precipitous drop in violent crime is the result of lead-free gasoline, available abortion-on-demand or a general rise in the availability of food and entertainment it seems likely that it was not an increase in the prison population. It is also not likely that it was the result of flooding our streets with millions of privately held guns.
For neither prisons nor guns have experienced a similar arc in all the other countries that have experienced a significant reduction in violent crime.
I am more concerned about the possibility that the drop in violent crime paired with the increase in a militarized police force is the cause of police on civilian violence. Police being by nature aggressive and prone to seek glory and excitement in their daily lives may well be over reacting to non-violent situations due to the withdrawal of the excitement of chasing and apprehending violent criminals who are no longer available.
For neither prisons nor guns have experienced a similar arc in all the other countries that have experienced a significant reduction in violent crime.
I am more concerned about the possibility that the drop in violent crime paired with the increase in a militarized police force is the cause of police on civilian violence. Police being by nature aggressive and prone to seek glory and excitement in their daily lives may well be over reacting to non-violent situations due to the withdrawal of the excitement of chasing and apprehending violent criminals who are no longer available.
4
Kind of like the lonesome housewives of crime, in your view? Just pining for a take-down?
The police have many flaws but your opinion (there is not a single fact to it) is beyond the pale.
The police have many flaws but your opinion (there is not a single fact to it) is beyond the pale.
1
We live in a safer age because America got tough on crime. To keep it that way, America must continue to be tough. Its no time to let up. Stay tough, America, stay tough!
7
Exactly
no southern boy stay smart not tough...
90% of the drastic drop in crime was due to demographics..
Learn from history or forever be cursed to repeat the worst aspects of it like having 25% of the world's convicts..
90% of the drastic drop in crime was due to demographics..
Learn from history or forever be cursed to repeat the worst aspects of it like having 25% of the world's convicts..
4
We who live in the 34th precinct in Manhattan would never know that open drug dealing was closed down. The police actually manage the drug dealing to minimize the "311" calls about it. Dealers are counseled to be discrete. There are three major open markets and at least two minor apartment-based operations within two blocks of PS 178 and 152. When residents complain about it to their elected officials, those complaining are told, "You shouldn't talk about this openly." We never had a "tough on crime" era.
10
The NYPD has Compstat info for the week, and cumulative, for all its precincts. Interestingly, it does not list drug arrests of any type for any precinct.
2
The Times uses the term "Safer Age" in its headline here. This is a misnomer as we are in times that are anything but a "Safer Age." I can think quickly of a few other hypotheses that may explain the drop in crime, at least in many sections of NYC, Los Angeles, etc.:
1. Gentrification of neighborhoods - case-in-point New York City where, for instance, the poor have been virtually pushed out of Manhattan with exhorbitant rents and high cost of food.
2. The aging of the enormous Post-World War II Baby Boom population - they are no longer 20-year olds that commit the most crime. They are now becoming grandmas and grandads - not exactly what we picture to be out there commiting street crime.
3. Street crime may have dropped but "white collar technology crime" has increased exponentially with the advent of technology in which one can steal millions upon millions of dollars in a nanosecond - working from home! The nature of crime has changed and it's gone indoors.
4. ... and if we are currently in a "Safer Age" it won't last long as the divide between rich and poor is greater than it has been in many decades. The middle class is being wiped out and that makes our society ripe for poverty, civil unrest and the ultimate crime between the haves and the have-nots that goes with it.
1. Gentrification of neighborhoods - case-in-point New York City where, for instance, the poor have been virtually pushed out of Manhattan with exhorbitant rents and high cost of food.
2. The aging of the enormous Post-World War II Baby Boom population - they are no longer 20-year olds that commit the most crime. They are now becoming grandmas and grandads - not exactly what we picture to be out there commiting street crime.
3. Street crime may have dropped but "white collar technology crime" has increased exponentially with the advent of technology in which one can steal millions upon millions of dollars in a nanosecond - working from home! The nature of crime has changed and it's gone indoors.
4. ... and if we are currently in a "Safer Age" it won't last long as the divide between rich and poor is greater than it has been in many decades. The middle class is being wiped out and that makes our society ripe for poverty, civil unrest and the ultimate crime between the haves and the have-nots that goes with it.
5
Perhaps crime can fall further if we legalize all drugs, and set up clinics where addicts go and do the drugs inside the clinic (so, they cannot re-sell it outside); plus monitor them once they exit (no driving, no care-taking of children, etc.)
Let us treat drugs like the health epidemic issue it is. Educate children on the negative health impact, have detox clinics available for all who want it, and provide drugs in a controlled manner for those who do not want to quit.
Let us treat drugs like the health epidemic issue it is. Educate children on the negative health impact, have detox clinics available for all who want it, and provide drugs in a controlled manner for those who do not want to quit.
9
THere are several good studies on the causes of crime that were glossed over in the article. If people think there are other causes to crime and teen pregnancy than lead they should read the following:
How Lead Exposure Relates to Temporal Changes in IQ, Violent Crime, and Unwed Pregnancy by Rick Nevin., it is available online at http://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2000.pdf
Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure by Nevin as well,
http://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf
Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime by Jessica Reyes
http://www3.amherst.edu/~jwreyes/papers/LeadCrimeBEJEAP.pdf
I defy anyone to show the kind of correlation between crime and lead and ANY another cause. There's no correlation whatsoever with policing or incarceration. Chemicals in the environment are likely the key to so many things like asthma and allergies in children! Parents, please lobby your politicians to stop dumping chemicals whether it be by burning coal or hydraulic fracturing. It's your children's future.
How Lead Exposure Relates to Temporal Changes in IQ, Violent Crime, and Unwed Pregnancy by Rick Nevin., it is available online at http://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2000.pdf
Understanding international crime trends: The legacy of preschool lead exposure by Nevin as well,
http://pic.plover.com/Nevin/Nevin2007.pdf
Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime by Jessica Reyes
http://www3.amherst.edu/~jwreyes/papers/LeadCrimeBEJEAP.pdf
I defy anyone to show the kind of correlation between crime and lead and ANY another cause. There's no correlation whatsoever with policing or incarceration. Chemicals in the environment are likely the key to so many things like asthma and allergies in children! Parents, please lobby your politicians to stop dumping chemicals whether it be by burning coal or hydraulic fracturing. It's your children's future.
8
It seems strange to overlook the impact Roe v. Wade may have had on this. In 1990, the children that might have been born the year of that decision would be turning 17. From that point on, many children that may have been put up for adoption, raised by relatives or by absent parents in low income communities were never born. Im hate to bring a politically divisive topic into the debate, but to ignore it seems wrong.
13
I don't pretend to know WHY crime decreased but I believe it is important to get an idea of what worked (some suggestions in this article) and what did not so as to focus resources on the right measures. Overall, though, too much of the "tough on crime" was for show, for politics, for careers, and ended up incarcerating many innocent people, mandatory sentences that for many cases did not make sense to the judges forced to impose them, and inflaming/creating situations by being unnecessarily and inappropriately confrontational rather than defusing them (a policy to inflate ones arrest and convictions stats perhaps?). It's time to become more rational and fair.
4
Crime went down in the 1990’s because---starting in the early 1980's--we built more prison space in response to public outrage about rampant crime. It took time for the full effect to be felt, but hiring more cops, and building more prison space for the criminals the cops arrested, resulted in the drop in crime in the 1990’s.
Steven Levitt at the Univ of Chicago published a study analyzing what did & didn’t affect crime rates in the '90's. The top 3 things that showed a positive statistical correlation were: 1) More cops, 2) more incarceration of criminals, and 3) the receding crack epidemic.
Although I think there’s room for more alternatives to incarceration, I also think the “anti-incarceration activists” are being a bit disingenuous & cavalier about high incarceration rates and their beneficial effects. They sometimes seem to care more about minority criminals than about the minority communities that are terrorized by these criminals. For example, look at this sentence from the report co-written by Jeremy Travis at John Jay College (linked in this article): “Beginning in the early 1970s, in a time of rising violence and rapid social change, policy makers turned to incarceration to denounce the moral insult of crime and to deter and incapacitate criminals."
To victims, being robbed or raped is more than a "moral insult"!
Levitt’s paper (worth reading)
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrim...
Steven Levitt at the Univ of Chicago published a study analyzing what did & didn’t affect crime rates in the '90's. The top 3 things that showed a positive statistical correlation were: 1) More cops, 2) more incarceration of criminals, and 3) the receding crack epidemic.
Although I think there’s room for more alternatives to incarceration, I also think the “anti-incarceration activists” are being a bit disingenuous & cavalier about high incarceration rates and their beneficial effects. They sometimes seem to care more about minority criminals than about the minority communities that are terrorized by these criminals. For example, look at this sentence from the report co-written by Jeremy Travis at John Jay College (linked in this article): “Beginning in the early 1970s, in a time of rising violence and rapid social change, policy makers turned to incarceration to denounce the moral insult of crime and to deter and incapacitate criminals."
To victims, being robbed or raped is more than a "moral insult"!
Levitt’s paper (worth reading)
http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrim...
3
Lots of other research out there that negates or blunts the findings by Levitt. The bringing together of a range of experts linked to a healthy civil society as a means of informing our system is to be applauded and long overdue. Example: a justice system that treats drug addiction as a crime and a health system that treats it like a disease.
4
It is a safer age because of the continued pressure on criminal activity. So if the pressure is relaxed, guess what...What a weird predication that the age is safer as though the criminally disposed had undergone a change of heart. Only a head-in-the-clouds idealist could propose this.
4
This is the most non-bias, thoughtful, and informative article I have read recently related to the criminal justice system. That it suggests we should search for policies that work rather than reasons to blame political opponents is productive. Too much of what I've read recently on this topic seems all too willing to pit races or classes or groups of people against each other, with an aim to win arguments regarding who's to blame rather than win over opponents on policies with solutions. Good job, Mr. Eckholm -- I look forward to seeing more from you on this!
Side question, has it been considered whether things like the Internet, video games, cable tv, etc. helped with this drop in crime? I went to school during the 1990's and I saw a lot of pretty mean kids get totally preoccupied by all these distractions. Who has time for crime when there's Madden to play? Just curious.
Side question, has it been considered whether things like the Internet, video games, cable tv, etc. helped with this drop in crime? I went to school during the 1990's and I saw a lot of pretty mean kids get totally preoccupied by all these distractions. Who has time for crime when there's Madden to play? Just curious.
3
As reported in BBC, gasoline lead additive is highly correlated with crime rate. Look at the graph in this article.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615
6
Yikes! Crime is easing? Can't have that…what will the for-profit prison industrial complex do! Since they had a government guarantee of 96-98% occupancy rate if they took over the prison system from the government, any drop in crime and incarceration drives down their profits and bonus's…Oh my, how's a corrections officer going to be able to feed his family…take the prison grub home for dinner?
Looks like we'll have to start bringing in those "extremists" that the Pres is talking about. You know, the ones who express contrary views to the political policies and foreign policy disasters we are currently engaged in.
Ops…gotta go. Some guys in blue are getting ready to bust down my door…
Looks like we'll have to start bringing in those "extremists" that the Pres is talking about. You know, the ones who express contrary views to the political policies and foreign policy disasters we are currently engaged in.
Ops…gotta go. Some guys in blue are getting ready to bust down my door…
7
Like the Hotel/Motel industry, private prisons only make a profit when the occupancy rates are high. Does anyone remember the "Cash for Kids" scandal in Pennsylvania, where Juvenile Court Judges received "kickbacks" for every juvenile they sent to a private prison? They are appropriately now serving long sentences in Federal Prison and have been stripped of the illegal profits derived from their scheme!
1
Tom, Dick and Harry are career criminals and master burglars, each responsible for.... Say....2 burglaries each, per week.
The police catch all three and'take them off the street'
The police catch all three and'take them off the street'
There is a theory that it is the elimination of lead from gasoline that lead to reduced crime.
see:
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline
see:
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline
5
Criminology-Astrology, indeed --- The belief that more prison time cures all crime is our era's equivalent of human sacrifice -- symbolic and wasteful, magical thinking that, at base, morally disgusting.
The best correlation with the reduction of crime in North America, and around the world is the removal of led from motor fuel and paint. This poison was added to fuel as anti-knocking agent. It was known to be highly toxic. But it was selected from among other less toxic options because it had the greater profit margin. In 'Ethyl' gas' early days, it was proven that the substance was highly toxic. But the dangers were downplayed. Ethyl plant workers, poor and female, were blamed for their acquired illnesses by those with a financial interest in Ethyl's success. Ultimately, money was used to silence the truth, and about three generations of Americans, and countless other people around the world were needlessly poisoned.
What is the 'leaded gas' of current time? -- What is that thing in common use today that our common sense tells us dangerous, but that our profit motive allows us to ignore, at our peril?
The best correlation with the reduction of crime in North America, and around the world is the removal of led from motor fuel and paint. This poison was added to fuel as anti-knocking agent. It was known to be highly toxic. But it was selected from among other less toxic options because it had the greater profit margin. In 'Ethyl' gas' early days, it was proven that the substance was highly toxic. But the dangers were downplayed. Ethyl plant workers, poor and female, were blamed for their acquired illnesses by those with a financial interest in Ethyl's success. Ultimately, money was used to silence the truth, and about three generations of Americans, and countless other people around the world were needlessly poisoned.
What is the 'leaded gas' of current time? -- What is that thing in common use today that our common sense tells us dangerous, but that our profit motive allows us to ignore, at our peril?
4
If the police spend all their time enforcing petty crimes, they're taking police services away from investigating and preventing what's left of serious crimes. There still is no reliable evidence that arrests for public drunkenness and loud music have anything to do with robbery or assault or car theft. Imagine how much less crime there would be if we stopped issuing summons for that nonsense that turn into unpaid tickets that then (because people are poor or can't miss work) turn into warrants. That's a perverse and vicious cycle of criminalization that is avoidable.
16
Where do you people come up with this stuff? You never lived in a high crime area did you??? It is absolutely when street cops purposely targeted guns - people carried tem less. I can remember they didn't even care about small amounts of weed - "just as log as you dot have any guns". Cops said that outright when I was growing up with NY crime at it's worst.
Also I can count quite a few of my classmates who were caught fare beating wih high powered guns like Tec 9's. Once people realized cops began stopping you for that - they either stopped doing it or stopped carrying their guns.
I always shake my head at these academics that never walked "a day in the street".
Also I can count quite a few of my classmates who were caught fare beating wih high powered guns like Tec 9's. Once people realized cops began stopping you for that - they either stopped doing it or stopped carrying their guns.
I always shake my head at these academics that never walked "a day in the street".
For a decade, from 2004-13, cops made 5 millions street stops in NYC. See Floyd litigation. How many guns did they get? 1 gun for every 1000 stops. How many guns did they get from other tactics, like gun stings and targeting enforcement? A few thousand each year. So, which way do you want the cops to spend their time? Pointless stops of people smoking weed or drinking from a paper bag, or going after people in the places with the highest crime rates? And why assume an academic, and assume an academic who doesn't live or work in a tough neighborhood, or who hasn't walked the streets in those places, and why the attack on them?
" can remember they didn't even care about small amounts of weed - just as log as you dot have any guns."
How many people have been killed with a joint? That might have something to do with why police care more about guns.
How many people have been killed with a joint? That might have something to do with why police care more about guns.
Economists Dubner and Levitt in their book Freakonomics point out a very large correlation between legalized abortion and a drop in crime. The thinking being unwanted kids with ill equipped parents are at a far greater risk of criminal behavior. The drop in crime beginning in the early nineties is precisely the beginning of the time that many kids would have entered adolescence and early adulthood were it not for the Roe v Wade decision. Of course they were pilloried by many for this observation, but as discomforting as this is it is simply where the data went and not a policy prescription or an endorsement of abortion rights.
22
Felix,
FYI, the argument in Freakonomics that legalized abortion contributed significantly to reductions in crime 15-20 years later was viewed with very considerable skepticism.
FYI, the argument in Freakonomics that legalized abortion contributed significantly to reductions in crime 15-20 years later was viewed with very considerable skepticism.
They also noted a correlation between the number of police and a drop in crime rate.
They showed a correlation, but couldn't prove causation.
They showed a correlation, but couldn't prove causation.
Thinker,
There is no doubt about the correlation. Of course one can't say with any certainty that it is a significant cause. The skepticism is understandable considering the implications
There is no doubt about the correlation. Of course one can't say with any certainty that it is a significant cause. The skepticism is understandable considering the implications
1
We pushed people out of mental hospitals onto the streets and told them to self medicate. Then we were surprised by the increase in crime and drug-addiction.
What percentage of the prison population belong in mental hospitals?
What percent of the prison population belong in long-term drug rehab programs?
What percent of the prison population have low-cognition levels and need on-going supervision but not prison?
What percent of the prison population is there due to abject poverty?
What percentage of the prison population belong in mental hospitals?
What percent of the prison population belong in long-term drug rehab programs?
What percent of the prison population have low-cognition levels and need on-going supervision but not prison?
What percent of the prison population is there due to abject poverty?
11
California's legislature - like America in general - has gone mad dog insane passing more and more draconian laws, from the lunacy of "three strikes" to
labeling a teenager who "sexts" his girlfriend or a dude who takes a leak in a bush as "sex offenders." FOR LIFE. Yes. For life! What in God's name does peeing behind a tree in the middle of the night because you had too much to drink or can't find a bathroom have to do with SEX?!
The courts and the legislatures of America have thrown logic, reason and common sense into the trash, passing law after law to address crimes that aren't even crimes. Every legislator and DA in the country knows that "tough on crime!" is an irresistible battle cry when running for office, and so they shout it from the rooftops, turning America, and California, into North Korea. The cowardice and callousness of our Congress and legislatures is appalling. They know that promoting fear wins votes, and they do not care who gets hurt in the process.
labeling a teenager who "sexts" his girlfriend or a dude who takes a leak in a bush as "sex offenders." FOR LIFE. Yes. For life! What in God's name does peeing behind a tree in the middle of the night because you had too much to drink or can't find a bathroom have to do with SEX?!
The courts and the legislatures of America have thrown logic, reason and common sense into the trash, passing law after law to address crimes that aren't even crimes. Every legislator and DA in the country knows that "tough on crime!" is an irresistible battle cry when running for office, and so they shout it from the rooftops, turning America, and California, into North Korea. The cowardice and callousness of our Congress and legislatures is appalling. They know that promoting fear wins votes, and they do not care who gets hurt in the process.
20
Well put. I didn't realize one could get arrested and labeled a "sex offender" for life for peeing behind a tree, but I suppose the statute is worded in such a way that that constitutes "exposing" oneself and that "exposing oneself" is a "sex crime." Chilling thought -- no more peeing behind trees for me.
I certainly can see the need for "sex offender" registries. That said, about 10 years ago, I looked up the "sex offenders" living near my mother in a suburb of Cleveland, Ohio. As best I could tell, about 80% of them were guys who'd had sex when they were 18-19 with girls who were 16. By that definition, I must admit that I could have been put on the "sex offender" list too. Not sure my mother needed quite that level of protection from "sex offenders," or that the lives of all those young men needed to be ruined.
I certainly can see the need for "sex offender" registries. That said, about 10 years ago, I looked up the "sex offenders" living near my mother in a suburb of Cleveland, Ohio. As best I could tell, about 80% of them were guys who'd had sex when they were 18-19 with girls who were 16. By that definition, I must admit that I could have been put on the "sex offender" list too. Not sure my mother needed quite that level of protection from "sex offenders," or that the lives of all those young men needed to be ruined.
14
I agree with both comments. I also question the danger of individuals who are convicted of viewing internet pornography of children. As revolting as that is, there should still be a legal difference between viewing and actually physical assault. The lifetime registries put a very harsh burden on people who may not be dangerous.
3
Pretty sure if corporate criminals were charged and jailed at the appropriate rate we would have auch lower drop in the crime rate.
5
A little off-topic, but I was watching Drugs, Inc. the other night and the focus was primarily on drug cartels. They interviewed an Asian who had a very businesslike demeanor and dealt drugs (meth, I believe) in San Francisco and he made an interesting observation: Asians don't deal drugs so blatantly and in the open like black people commonly do -- he found it laughable and dumb that anyone would take that kind of risk to market drugs that are already in high demand.
It's almost as if they're wanting to get caught so they can get that street cred after coming out of the slammer.
It's almost as if they're wanting to get caught so they can get that street cred after coming out of the slammer.
7
Count me in the camp that pegs the drop in crime on the reduction of lead in the environment. Not every country has adopted the policing strategies of the US, nor our openness around abortion (a culprit popularly raised by Freakonomics), but every country that's switched from leaded gas to unleaded has seen a drop in crime twenty or so years later.
If this thesis is right, we've just ended the largest mass poisoning in human history.
If this thesis is right, we've just ended the largest mass poisoning in human history.
13
... the most profitable mass-poisoning in human history.
1
Abortion was legalized in 1973. 18 years later we see a massive drop in crime.
Yes, there is more to the correlation, but that pretty much sums it up.
Yes, there is more to the correlation, but that pretty much sums it up.
6
Initially I was impressed by the Freakonomics argument that legalized abortion led to reductions in crime 15-20 years later. Initially. I suggest you read some of the many criticisms of that shoot-from-the-hip argument.
1
Re: "...those committing less severe crimes also received lengthy sentences."
Yay!
Yay!
1
All the comments here provide an interesting collection of links between crime rates and a host of possibly causal factors. Unfortunately, they can't distinguish between correlation and causation, and they don't generate any cleanly testable hypotheses. Having said that, maybe it would make sense to stop incarcerating the same kind of people for the same kinds of offenses for about a decade, and see whether crime rates go up or not. Maybe the first half of an admittedly messy experiment has already been done, where the tough-on-crime policies put in place decades ago were strongly correlated with a drop in crime rates. There's no easy way to get at the question, as shown by the failure of criminologists to explain much of anything.
The authors of Freakonomics (former NYT op-ed writers) detailed a theory supported by lots of data that the decline in crime rates was due to legalization of abortion. They pointed out that the decline happened a year or two earlier in NY where abortion was legalized earlier. The lag between legalization and the drop in crime rates is the time for a person to reach the age for max criminal activity. States and cities that adopted none of the anti-crime or strict anti-drug laws also experienced declines. The book is worth reading.
33
Back in 300 BC Aristotle wrote that "Poverty is the parent of revolution and crime." It's still true -- it's mostly the poor that commit the crimes and end up in prison.
The last real revolution was in the late 60s when poor people "rioted" in cities with large pockets of poverty like Detroit, LA etc.
The response of the government was to improve the conditions of the poverty stricken, a process that took about 5 - 10 years to crank up. So the children of the poor, born after 1975, had a better life. And when they reached the criminal offender years, starting around 15 years old -- around 1990 -- there was less violent crime.
As for prisons, less crime means fewer convicts and but they're still dealing with sentencing after-effects of the crime wave that peaked in the 1990s -- the 20 year and life sentences. And there's no question that voter-scared judges continue to hand out excessive sentences. Judges and mandatory-sentence-legislators need to be re-educated and more prisons closed.
The more interesting issue is the future crime rate given current crop of children growing up under austerity in post 2008 America -- especially given the demise of the middle class.
Perhaps it's time for another revolution.
The last real revolution was in the late 60s when poor people "rioted" in cities with large pockets of poverty like Detroit, LA etc.
The response of the government was to improve the conditions of the poverty stricken, a process that took about 5 - 10 years to crank up. So the children of the poor, born after 1975, had a better life. And when they reached the criminal offender years, starting around 15 years old -- around 1990 -- there was less violent crime.
As for prisons, less crime means fewer convicts and but they're still dealing with sentencing after-effects of the crime wave that peaked in the 1990s -- the 20 year and life sentences. And there's no question that voter-scared judges continue to hand out excessive sentences. Judges and mandatory-sentence-legislators need to be re-educated and more prisons closed.
The more interesting issue is the future crime rate given current crop of children growing up under austerity in post 2008 America -- especially given the demise of the middle class.
Perhaps it's time for another revolution.
2
Imagine a country where we spent on colleges instead of prisons. Teachers and coaches instead of police. Drug treatment instead of courts and lawyers. Imagine and then act.
5
It is going to be hard to scale back the prison system when so much private money is wrapped up in it. For-profit prisons have contracts in various states to keep their beds full regardless of crime rates, corporations have access to cheaper labor than China provides, private contractors run most of the state prison services, and the military industrial complex found a new home for all of their guns and gadgets at the local sheriff's office.
13
One aspect that has made crime more difficult is technology. There are far more surveillance cameras on streets and in businesses. DNA identification has solved thousands of violent crimes and exonerated hundreds who were falsely accused. Computerized records have made arrests and convictions more decisive. However I agree with some of the experts' consensus that all of the deterrents, including stiff sentences helped. It is time to lower incarceration rates and change sentence guidelines, which are too harsh for some crimes. It would be great if the rollback in crime would release tax revenue to improve education (the best crime deterrent) instead of building prisons, but considering the current political climate, that is not going to happen anytime soon.
1
Odd that 18 years after legalizing abortion the crime rate falls. I wonder if the crime rates in regions where abortion is still difficult to obtain have fallen as much as in regions where legal abortion is available? It has long been thought that much crime is a result of children growing up in bad environments and I can't think of a worse environment than that of an unwanted child.
4
Two causes for the remarkable drop in crime that often go unmentioned:
1. Crack cocaine use declined precipitously because many of the most heavily addicted users began dying premature deaths from the cardiac havoc cocaine inflicts on the body.
2. The population at large began spending more and more time using technology throughout this period, continuing to today. Even in poorer areas, the internet and cell phones became ubiquitous and people who might otherwise be bored and looking to get into trouble found it was easier and more fun to surf the web, chat with their friends and romantic interests online, talk on their cell phones and play video games.
1. Crack cocaine use declined precipitously because many of the most heavily addicted users began dying premature deaths from the cardiac havoc cocaine inflicts on the body.
2. The population at large began spending more and more time using technology throughout this period, continuing to today. Even in poorer areas, the internet and cell phones became ubiquitous and people who might otherwise be bored and looking to get into trouble found it was easier and more fun to surf the web, chat with their friends and romantic interests online, talk on their cell phones and play video games.
4
You're putting us on, right? If not that comment betrays astonishingly naïve concepts of both drug addiction and criminal behavior.
1
If you indeed have any points to make, then make them. One of the things I like about the Times comments sections is they're typically free of the pettiness and name calling found on so many other internet forums. Then there's your comment.
Having actually known crack addicts who died from cardiac failure, doctors who treated them en masse and after going to high school during the height of the crack epidemic in West Baltimore with an open air drug supermarket 2 alleys over, I don't feel naivete is a fair characterization.
As the article clearly shows, the causes for the drop in violent crime are unclear even to the most seasoned experts in the field. Perhaps a more basic view of how our culture and how we spend our time has also changed throughout this period provides some answers beyond viewing the decline simply through the prism of poverty or law enforcement strategies.
Having actually known crack addicts who died from cardiac failure, doctors who treated them en masse and after going to high school during the height of the crack epidemic in West Baltimore with an open air drug supermarket 2 alleys over, I don't feel naivete is a fair characterization.
As the article clearly shows, the causes for the drop in violent crime are unclear even to the most seasoned experts in the field. Perhaps a more basic view of how our culture and how we spend our time has also changed throughout this period provides some answers beyond viewing the decline simply through the prism of poverty or law enforcement strategies.
One possible explanation of dropping crime rates worldwide (regardless of anti-crime measures implemented): incredibly immersive and addictive virtual entertainment. In the '80s and '90s children and adults would literally spend more time outdoors and "on the street" because indoor entertainment simply wasn't as good. Now, most kids in the U.S. spend the vast majority of their free waking hours glued to some sort of screen. Whether or not this is a good thing is debatable, but it certainly wouldn't shock me if it was one of the primary reasons why overall crime rates are dropping worldwide. The more time people spend on their couches with their screens, the less time they have to get into trouble on the streets. And I see this trend increasing exponentially, especially as Virtual Reality systems take hold. The 21st Century will see less violent crime, but we may be on a path towards fat complacency (see Wall-E/Brave New World/etc...).
9
"“The policy decisions to make long sentences longer and to impose mandatory minimums have had minimal effect on crime,” said Mr. Travis, of John Jay College. “The research on this is quite clear.”"
The research may be clear to scientists, but it's not effectively communicated to readers of this article. Why is it exactly that "tough on crime" laws and policies aren't being credited for the drop in crime? Other possible causes are mentioned, but when they're pitched next to "stop and frisk"-type debates, it looks an awful lot like we're picking and choosing causal explanations based on current public opinion rather than science.
Maybe "tough on crime" works. But does it produce an America that we're proud to raise pigs, sheep, and goats in? That's a different question.
The research may be clear to scientists, but it's not effectively communicated to readers of this article. Why is it exactly that "tough on crime" laws and policies aren't being credited for the drop in crime? Other possible causes are mentioned, but when they're pitched next to "stop and frisk"-type debates, it looks an awful lot like we're picking and choosing causal explanations based on current public opinion rather than science.
Maybe "tough on crime" works. But does it produce an America that we're proud to raise pigs, sheep, and goats in? That's a different question.
3
Of course incarceration has had an impact, it has essentially placed a generation of poor, uneducated, people of predominantly black or brown people in jail. Not because these people were inherently criminal but because crime is the main "employer" of unemployed, poor, uneducated people. Instead of fixing the problem by offering this part of society education, training and improvement opportunities, we simply send them to jail when they inevitably break the law. Furthermore, that doesn't include the other enormous component of our present prison population, the mentally ill. Again our solution to the mass closing of underfunded mental institutions was simple, send to jail. In effect prison has become a solution to all the failings in our country to address inequality and the lack of opportunity.
10
The picture that you chose to use in this article, in fact, speaks volumes about the bias that helped fueled the destructive War on Drugs and mass incarceration of black and brown people. Despite empirical data that shows Whites are the biggest users and sellers of illegal drugs, it is through black and brown faces that the media presents this to the public. A major step forward would be to addressed the bias.
7
I taught a course in psychoactive drugs for over 30 years. One topic covered was the effect of the legal system on drug use and even had a book published on the subject (Federal Narcotic Laws and the War on Drugs). I am well aware of the research that shows that harsh laws and long sentences have little impact on the drug trade. Space does not allow for me to go into all the details here, but I want to share one experience.
I also taught on occasion at Oxford Federal Prison as part of their college program. What I learned from the prisoners I spoke with is that a prison sentence is just seen as "part of the cost of doing business." None of the folks in there that I saw were going to be deterred by the chance of coming back. And these were the best of the best in prison - smart people trying to earn a college degree. Indeed, I asked on guy who was in for the 6th time for bank robbery, why he did it again after 5 times caught and sent to prison. He said "I thought I had figured out what I was doing wrong."
Harsh mandatory sentences and the war on drugs have turned us into a nation that puts more people per capita behind bars than anyone else in the world (a black eye for us, IMV) without solving any problems and without any evidence it deters crime. It is time to stop. We don't need more prison cells, we need fewer; and we need to give power back to judges to "judge" how stiff a sentence to give. Better to invest in education for the disadvantaged than this.
I also taught on occasion at Oxford Federal Prison as part of their college program. What I learned from the prisoners I spoke with is that a prison sentence is just seen as "part of the cost of doing business." None of the folks in there that I saw were going to be deterred by the chance of coming back. And these were the best of the best in prison - smart people trying to earn a college degree. Indeed, I asked on guy who was in for the 6th time for bank robbery, why he did it again after 5 times caught and sent to prison. He said "I thought I had figured out what I was doing wrong."
Harsh mandatory sentences and the war on drugs have turned us into a nation that puts more people per capita behind bars than anyone else in the world (a black eye for us, IMV) without solving any problems and without any evidence it deters crime. It is time to stop. We don't need more prison cells, we need fewer; and we need to give power back to judges to "judge" how stiff a sentence to give. Better to invest in education for the disadvantaged than this.
20
As for those who are doing time for drugs, other than the kingpins;
its been a tragic wrongheadedness. These people need out-patient
treatment and leg monitors. Fed sentencing guidelines and the trickle
down has been absurd and has ruined many young blacks and browns who
might easily have been redeemed with more patient and thoughtful
probation programs. We ought to engage in a massive sentence review of
those incarcerated for such offenses and put them on rehab parole and
into reentry programs.
Putting people into jail is like baking bread: leaving it in too long
makes it very hard to eat and likely to be thrown away. I say this
from experience as a lawyer and a psychologist. The truth is prisons
do one thing better than anything else. They tend to produce confirmed
criminals. The punitive aspects of prison far outweigh any
rehabilitation that occurs. There are many excellent alternatives to
warehousing human beings God meant to be free.
The American Bar Association estimates that as many as 20% of our inmates are actually innocent. Great pause in the rush to incarcerate needs to come about. This must become another facet of addressing our unconscionable racist criminal justice system from the cop on the street to the judge in the courtroom.
its been a tragic wrongheadedness. These people need out-patient
treatment and leg monitors. Fed sentencing guidelines and the trickle
down has been absurd and has ruined many young blacks and browns who
might easily have been redeemed with more patient and thoughtful
probation programs. We ought to engage in a massive sentence review of
those incarcerated for such offenses and put them on rehab parole and
into reentry programs.
Putting people into jail is like baking bread: leaving it in too long
makes it very hard to eat and likely to be thrown away. I say this
from experience as a lawyer and a psychologist. The truth is prisons
do one thing better than anything else. They tend to produce confirmed
criminals. The punitive aspects of prison far outweigh any
rehabilitation that occurs. There are many excellent alternatives to
warehousing human beings God meant to be free.
The American Bar Association estimates that as many as 20% of our inmates are actually innocent. Great pause in the rush to incarcerate needs to come about. This must become another facet of addressing our unconscionable racist criminal justice system from the cop on the street to the judge in the courtroom.
16
One important fact missing from the article and all of the comments is the direct relationship between incarceration and the funding of higher education. As the cost of incarceration has multiplied, the state supplement for higher education has been proportionally reduced.
This single fact explains all of the variance in tuition increases and student debt. We are literally starving the up-coming generation of necessary education by paying for incarceration. This is not to say that decreases in incarceration costs will restore state support for universities. But until incarceration costs drop significantly, the states literally have no money to pay for higher education.
This single fact explains all of the variance in tuition increases and student debt. We are literally starving the up-coming generation of necessary education by paying for incarceration. This is not to say that decreases in incarceration costs will restore state support for universities. But until incarceration costs drop significantly, the states literally have no money to pay for higher education.
54
Drug law reforms are badly needed. http://www.leap.cc/
7
Timely article on a state of affairs where the punishment is, many times, worse than the infraction, and at a tremendous cost, especially if private agency's profit motive is considered (payment per jailed individual). Now that 'marijuana', as an example, is better tolerated, even made legal, how about considering freeing all those petty street peddlers in the drug retail, rotting in jail? As you mentioned, the U.S. stands "tall" in incarcerations, supposedly to cut crime, when other countries do quite well without this excess suffering and lost potential of so many, when subjecting to prison too many for too long. If this smacks as judicial trigger-happy activism, it may be high time to sit down, take a deep breath and give reasonableness a chance.
6
“One clearly bad option,” Dr. Nagin said, “is turning prisons into substitutes for mental hospitals.”
Under successvie administrations in Pennsylvania thousands of mentally ill were turned into the streets or into homes that were totally unprepared to care for these desperate people. The Republicans supported this because it reduced state expenses for mental hospitals that they claimed should be privatized and supported by charities and local community organizations. It would save money and reduce the budget. The Democrats also supported this action in the name of civil rights and patient rights claiming the state had no right to incarcerate mentally ill and physically disabled or greatly handicapped patients in state institutions. Both parties were greatly misguided and the result was a flood of sick, handicapped and mentally ill that soon found themselves in prisons. The lives ruined and the toll on families and the additional tax burden added by the cost of operating prisons to house mentally ill is enormous. The worst part was the Republican mantra of self-sufficiency and self-responsiblity that blamed the victims as they refused to see reality in the face of extreme suffering and their need punish everyone forever. That doesn't lessen the fault of the Democrats whose zeal for civil rights overlooked the impact on communities and families left without support. This was never about being tough on crime. It was about state budgets, political dogma and demagoguery.
Under successvie administrations in Pennsylvania thousands of mentally ill were turned into the streets or into homes that were totally unprepared to care for these desperate people. The Republicans supported this because it reduced state expenses for mental hospitals that they claimed should be privatized and supported by charities and local community organizations. It would save money and reduce the budget. The Democrats also supported this action in the name of civil rights and patient rights claiming the state had no right to incarcerate mentally ill and physically disabled or greatly handicapped patients in state institutions. Both parties were greatly misguided and the result was a flood of sick, handicapped and mentally ill that soon found themselves in prisons. The lives ruined and the toll on families and the additional tax burden added by the cost of operating prisons to house mentally ill is enormous. The worst part was the Republican mantra of self-sufficiency and self-responsiblity that blamed the victims as they refused to see reality in the face of extreme suffering and their need punish everyone forever. That doesn't lessen the fault of the Democrats whose zeal for civil rights overlooked the impact on communities and families left without support. This was never about being tough on crime. It was about state budgets, political dogma and demagoguery.
44
This article errs when stating that Canada's crime rate decreased even though Canada supposedly did not toughen its sentencing guidelines. The fact is that Canada did toughen sentencing guidelines a great deal. The number of offenses leading to incarceration increased dramatically, and there was a new focus on repeat offenders. Canada provides an example that is in exactly the opposite direction of the author's intention.
3
Curious that there is not one mention of two major reasons why crime stats have fallen over the past twenty years:
1. The ubiquitous presence of cell phones in the hands of concerned citizens.
2. Witness protection programs fed, state, and local have bolstered the confidence and courage of our reporting public.
The criminal mind is not wild and capricious so much as cold and calculating. On risk taking, a large concern is "can I get away with this?" and "did anyone see me?" Public video surveillance combined with a watchful public ready to punch 911 and begin filming with their cellphones makes most crime a lot more risky than before our advances in the above areas.
1. The ubiquitous presence of cell phones in the hands of concerned citizens.
2. Witness protection programs fed, state, and local have bolstered the confidence and courage of our reporting public.
The criminal mind is not wild and capricious so much as cold and calculating. On risk taking, a large concern is "can I get away with this?" and "did anyone see me?" Public video surveillance combined with a watchful public ready to punch 911 and begin filming with their cellphones makes most crime a lot more risky than before our advances in the above areas.
4
That's because there are lots of other correlated trends that might well have made a big difference in the US:
1. 18 years before the big turnaround in crime, abortion was legalized. That could well mean that the kids that would have been born into the most troubled families, who would have been most likely to become criminals, may well have not been born at all.
2. Also at about the same time, leaded gasoline was banned and a real effort began to reduce the risk of lead poisoning. That made people's brains healthier.
3. The public education campaigns about the dangers of drug use made a dent in the demand for the more dangerous and addictive drugs like PCP, heroin, and cocaine (both powder and crack).
4. Community groups and churches in the worst neighborhoods of the US did all sorts of hard work to try to make their neighborhoods better. Their very intentional efforts have made a big difference in the culture - most parents and students who live there, in my experience, are focused on trying to get a good education and staying out of trouble.
What I'm still trying to figure out is why policing has gotten harsher and more expensive while the need for policing has been dropping steadily.
1. 18 years before the big turnaround in crime, abortion was legalized. That could well mean that the kids that would have been born into the most troubled families, who would have been most likely to become criminals, may well have not been born at all.
2. Also at about the same time, leaded gasoline was banned and a real effort began to reduce the risk of lead poisoning. That made people's brains healthier.
3. The public education campaigns about the dangers of drug use made a dent in the demand for the more dangerous and addictive drugs like PCP, heroin, and cocaine (both powder and crack).
4. Community groups and churches in the worst neighborhoods of the US did all sorts of hard work to try to make their neighborhoods better. Their very intentional efforts have made a big difference in the culture - most parents and students who live there, in my experience, are focused on trying to get a good education and staying out of trouble.
What I'm still trying to figure out is why policing has gotten harsher and more expensive while the need for policing has been dropping steadily.
4
This would have come about long ago if not for Republican demogagery.
3
I wonder how much of the drug crime decline is attributed to the prevalence of prescription drugs available for anxiety , depression and ADD . Is it possible that in the past, kids who were problematic in the schools were kicked and began surviving on the street engaged in drug activity for income ,are now being medicated .
2
Better late than never but better never late.
One of the stupidest policies in the history of this country that no other peer nation follows.
Made demagogic, idea bankrupt pols. popular but did not stop high crime rates.
Demographics finally did that.
One of the stupidest policies in the history of this country that no other peer nation follows.
Made demagogic, idea bankrupt pols. popular but did not stop high crime rates.
Demographics finally did that.
3
Why crime declined is an interesting exercise. The issue is the huge number of people in prison for long periods of time. That is expensive and ineffective. We must have a conversation and action to reduce prison population.
3
The influence of environmental lead on violent crime is quite well established and it does account for a substantial part of the rise and decline: the rise began around 20 years after lead began to be released into the environment in large amounts through the used of leaded gasoline (as those children whose neurological development was affected by lead in the environment reached adulthood) and started dropping about 20 years after leaded gasoline was no longer sold. The same profile has been seen in other locations: introduce lead into the environment and 20 years later crime rises; stop adding lead to the environment, and 20 years later crime drops. And the crimes affected are specifically violent crimes, due to the effects of lead on the developing nervous system. In Brazil there is a nice confirmation: two similar states, one discontinued the use of leaded gasoline, the other did not. 20 years later, the one that discontinued leaded gasoline saw its violent crime rate drop, the other did not. Google this and you'll find many studies, well-done and convincing.
18
You are correct!! Unfortunately, rather than seriously try to understand the problem, we politicize it and more people suffer. Lead is particularly nasty which is why we banned it from paint and gasoline. Chemicals and heavy metals are pumped into our environment all the time without proper testing and care. While much is determined by genetics, there's a tremendous environmental overprint. There is a lot of data and nothing else correlates with rise AND fall of crime as does lead in gasoline. If someone suggests otherwise have them show you the correlation curves. Search for "lead in gasoline" if you want to learn more. It was a sorry experiment on the American people and we need to better control chemicals in the environment. Ground water destruction by fracking chemicals seems like the next example!
5
This is long overdue, but we can expect that private for-profit prison corporations and suppliers, unions for prison guards, and other beneficiaries of the current system will fight to keep sentences long and incarceration rates high.
4
[[“The judicial system has been a critical element in keeping violent criminals off the street,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois.]]
I talked to a sheriff's deputy who said almost no one gets charged with attempted murder. He said there was a case where one drug dealer chased down another drug dealer and shot him in the back and the prosecutor still went for a lesser charge.
I talked to a sheriff's deputy who said almost no one gets charged with attempted murder. He said there was a case where one drug dealer chased down another drug dealer and shot him in the back and the prosecutor still went for a lesser charge.
2
THe best correlation with rise and fall of crime is lead in gasoline. Kevin Drum at Mother Jones had a great article about it that is still online. Apparently lead affects the frontal lobe of males more than females and leads them to engage in risky behavior. Teen pregnancy also correlates well with lead in gasoline. Crime curves are staggered 21 years from lead curves but are remarkably parallel and since different countries, states and cities got rid of leaded gas at different times AND the crime curve still parallels the lead curve, they are well correlated. Of course politicians and police don't want you to know this because we might try to cut their funding. If you have doubts I suggest you read the article in Mother Jones. Just Google "lead in gasoline Mother JOnes". It's fascinating!
12
Sounds very scientific, but lacks any particular scientific basis except coincidence. Western European countries like Germany did not phase out leaded fuels till almost a decade after the US. Their comparatively low crime rates did not correlate with the discontinuation of leaded fuels.
Germany's ban on leaded gasoline took effect in 1988, whereas the US ban occurred in 1996 (except Calif, which was in 1992). Just look on Wikipedia for Tetraethyl lead. I would think you might check your facts before posting. I suggest everyone look at Kevin Drum's article in Mother Jones as it provides the best summary of lead versus crime and teen pregnancy. There's a very strong correlation, in fact, better than any other possible cause.
2
I was talking about this yesterday with a local deputy. He said that, on the one hand, persons charged with crimes jeopardizing public safety, like burglary of occupied homes, are often out before he can finish the paperwork, but, on the other hand, the sentencing of persons guilty of lesser crimes can be really severe. I asked him for an example, thinking he might mention minimum mandatories for drug offenses. Instead, he said that recently he made two arrests for driving while license suspended or revoked (DWLSR). One guy was driving to work, and the other was driving his employer's vehicle. In other words, both guys held jobs, unlike the burglars. But, because each was a multiple reoffender of DWLSR, each was sentenced to five years in prison. I'm not sure how I'd stop DWLSR, but I'd reserve a prison sentence to those guilty of DWLSR and who cause a serious motor vehicle accident while doing so.
But there's no lobby for the DWLSR community, as there is no lobby for the drug user/street-level drug seller community. So, until taxpayers revolt at the ridiculous expenditures for law enforcement, criminal justice, and incarceration--let alone the indirect costs in broken families, etc.--five-year sentences for repeat offenders of DWLSR will continue. What a waste.
But there's no lobby for the DWLSR community, as there is no lobby for the drug user/street-level drug seller community. So, until taxpayers revolt at the ridiculous expenditures for law enforcement, criminal justice, and incarceration--let alone the indirect costs in broken families, etc.--five-year sentences for repeat offenders of DWLSR will continue. What a waste.
5
There's more to this than meets the eye. The most likely reason for the license being suspended or revoked is repeated DUI, so arresting, trying, and jailing the people in question seems entirely justified to me. There are almost as many deaths caused by drunk drivers as there are deaths caused by gunshots, so cracking down on these guys is actually at least as useful for the public safety as cracking down on burglars.
Even if these guys don't kill somebody, but merely damage their car, is it a bad use of police effort to stop $5000 worth of damage to somebody's car over $1500 worth of damage due to a stolen HDTV?
Even if these guys don't kill somebody, but merely damage their car, is it a bad use of police effort to stop $5000 worth of damage to somebody's car over $1500 worth of damage due to a stolen HDTV?
3
Another factor was the non-availability of drivers' licenses, until quite recently, for undocumented workers in almost all states. This ill-considered policy, motivated to deny identificaion to the undocumented, endangered others on the highways. Driving, to commute to work, do the shopping and take the kids to and from school, is a necessity in both urban and suburban areas. Rather than keep poorly trained, unlicensed and uninsured drivers off the roads, such policies, left them no alternative but to drive without proper training, licenses and insurance. A far better alternative would have been to issue a license, limited for the purpose of driving and obtaining insurance only, but not for identification or any other purpose.
As an Assistant Public Defender, I defended many who drove, and would have otherwise obtained licensing and insurance, had that option been available to them. The inability to obtain a license increased the dangers of driving and increased the cost for "uninsured motorist" coverage for others. Such policies, denying licenses to those who would otherwise qualify for them, is cutting off one's nose to spite one's face and unnecessarily placing others on the highways in danger!
As an Assistant Public Defender, I defended many who drove, and would have otherwise obtained licensing and insurance, had that option been available to them. The inability to obtain a license increased the dangers of driving and increased the cost for "uninsured motorist" coverage for others. Such policies, denying licenses to those who would otherwise qualify for them, is cutting off one's nose to spite one's face and unnecessarily placing others on the highways in danger!
1
It is well worth remembering that "tough on crime" began as an out-flanking maneuver suggested by the Ford Foundation in consultancy with then NY governor, Nelson Rockefeller when he was contemplating a move to run for president in competition with Richard Nixon for the 1968 Republican Presidential Nomination. Nixon wound up appropriating the Rockefeller "war on drugs" - and Rockefeller himself introduced the draconian drug laws into NY State that was to deform lives for decades to come.
In other words, the roots of this movement was pure political pandering to the right and fear of people of color or poverty. Sound familiar? It's worked really well hasn't it? I suppose one could say it has in trillions wasted, international drug laws warped into a counter productive form of lunacy that has institutionalized crime cartels, and human misery, but that's about it.
In other words, the roots of this movement was pure political pandering to the right and fear of people of color or poverty. Sound familiar? It's worked really well hasn't it? I suppose one could say it has in trillions wasted, international drug laws warped into a counter productive form of lunacy that has institutionalized crime cartels, and human misery, but that's about it.
14
There are a huge amount of young black males in prison that we need to rehabilitate and get them back into mainstream society. It serves no purpose to keep them incarcerated for years for small drug offenses. They need jobs and not prison clothes.
31
This is dumb. Crime was very high. Clinton, the Democrats, and the Republications got together and pushed for lots of programs to address it. Crime went down. Now the tea party/criminologists want to roll back what was done. The chances are high that we will go back to the old days of high crime.
One point the article makes is that criminologists don't know what causes crime to increase or decrease. That's a sad state of affairs. Why. then, should they be voicing their opinions about what to do? Why should anyone listen to them?
In the absence of knowledge, ideology tends to dominate. That is what is happening here.
The article quoted several people to the effect that imprisoning criminals has little or no effect on crime rates. They do not know what they are talking about. There are many research articles, published in the best journals, that conclude that prison population growth reduces crime greatly, enough to account for all the reduction in crime in the past 25 years. There are, of course, writings arguing otherwise, but they are poorly done and either not peer reviewed or in secondary journals.
One point the article makes is that criminologists don't know what causes crime to increase or decrease. That's a sad state of affairs. Why. then, should they be voicing their opinions about what to do? Why should anyone listen to them?
In the absence of knowledge, ideology tends to dominate. That is what is happening here.
The article quoted several people to the effect that imprisoning criminals has little or no effect on crime rates. They do not know what they are talking about. There are many research articles, published in the best journals, that conclude that prison population growth reduces crime greatly, enough to account for all the reduction in crime in the past 25 years. There are, of course, writings arguing otherwise, but they are poorly done and either not peer reviewed or in secondary journals.
7
"In the absence of knowledge, ideology tends to dominate." Agreed. Unfortunately, your comment falls prey to the same trap. You don't address the most salient point of the article: that crime rates have been dropping throughout the US, and indeed throughout most of the Western industrialized world (the article mentions Canada) for the last few decades. This has happened regardless of the policing and criminal justice techniques being used. Many major US cities did not adopt New York's aggressive "broken windows" policing and yet also saw comparable drops in violent crime. Violent crime in the US, as the article points out, started its decline BEFORE the 1994 crime bill signed by Clinton. Canada and Western European countries have never remotely approached current US rates of incarceration, yet have also seen major drops in violent crime.
Your claim that the "best" journals and researchers attribute the drop to incarceration rates is also misguided. The bibliography to support that claim must certainly must be skimpy compared to the long list of criminologists who have looked at the data and realized that incarceration and crime rates tend to fluctuate independently of each other (as well as many who just admit they can't explain the drop in violent crime). Incarceration rates, unfortunately, tend to fluctuate instead based on the politics of a given area and era. (See anything by Marc Mauer, especially "Race to Incarcerate," and Michael Tonry, "Thinking about Crime.")
Your claim that the "best" journals and researchers attribute the drop to incarceration rates is also misguided. The bibliography to support that claim must certainly must be skimpy compared to the long list of criminologists who have looked at the data and realized that incarceration and crime rates tend to fluctuate independently of each other (as well as many who just admit they can't explain the drop in violent crime). Incarceration rates, unfortunately, tend to fluctuate instead based on the politics of a given area and era. (See anything by Marc Mauer, especially "Race to Incarcerate," and Michael Tonry, "Thinking about Crime.")
2
The "tea party"? Yeah, they are responsible for sinking the Titanic too.
This all goes back to a sound, moral upbringing, and the education system. Education is broken in the inner city, and no one will address it. Motivation and discipline - not money - are at the heart of the educational problem (not to mention qualified teachers).
This all goes back to a sound, moral upbringing, and the education system. Education is broken in the inner city, and no one will address it. Motivation and discipline - not money - are at the heart of the educational problem (not to mention qualified teachers).
1
It's too bad that the studies don't support your claim about imprisonment causing the drop in crime. Reread the article to see that your claim is wrong.
You also ignored the fact the crime was dropping before the crime bill was passed and signed.
You also ignored the fact the crime was dropping before the crime bill was passed and signed.
2
The single greatest accomplishment of the Holder Justice Department is lower crime-rates coupled with lower incarceration-rates. The next greatest accomplishment is the unprecedented multi-billion dollar legal-settlements paid by financial-institutions complicit in triggering the Great-Recession. Now if the actual perpetrators hiding behind the massive bank-settlements were brought to justice, the 99%'ers in America truly "Believe."
The "peace-dividend" appears to have had a beneficial impact on the economy & society. Hopefully the "prison-dividend" will as well.
We need a strong military, we need cops & jails -- but it would appear, statistically & anecdotally, the pendulum must swing away from overly-aggressive draconian-action, towards solutions that yield positive-outcomes from otherwise negative-situations.
On a tangent, the issue of police interfacing with the mentally-ill is fore-front. Despite substantial advancements in training & sensitivity-issues, there would appear from headlines & videos, that more training & education would benefit ALL parties involved during crisis-level interactions. (Relatively innocent people dying for low-level crimes, and otherwise extremely decent and good cops going to jail for murder is the worst outcome for all parties.) The majority of cops display extraordinary-restraint under stressful-conditions, but there's still WAY too many escalations that end in needless bloodshed, death and ruined-lives on both sides of the law.
The "peace-dividend" appears to have had a beneficial impact on the economy & society. Hopefully the "prison-dividend" will as well.
We need a strong military, we need cops & jails -- but it would appear, statistically & anecdotally, the pendulum must swing away from overly-aggressive draconian-action, towards solutions that yield positive-outcomes from otherwise negative-situations.
On a tangent, the issue of police interfacing with the mentally-ill is fore-front. Despite substantial advancements in training & sensitivity-issues, there would appear from headlines & videos, that more training & education would benefit ALL parties involved during crisis-level interactions. (Relatively innocent people dying for low-level crimes, and otherwise extremely decent and good cops going to jail for murder is the worst outcome for all parties.) The majority of cops display extraordinary-restraint under stressful-conditions, but there's still WAY too many escalations that end in needless bloodshed, death and ruined-lives on both sides of the law.
4
Holder and the Justice Department have virtually nothing to do with lower crime rates.
4
The U.S. is certainly not tough on crime when it comes to Wall Street, is it?
32
While the article describes the NYPD's stop and frisk policy as "overly aggressive" a more accurate description is simply that it was illegal. Stop and frisk is not a new tactic. The Supreme Court ruled on it decades ago and was clear that a stop required reasonable suspicion based on an observation of behavior.
New Yorks version of that was that if you were Black or Latino and lived in a high crime area, that in and of itself was reasonable suspicion for a stop. Once a stop occurred a pat down was almost automatic and an unlawful search ensued.
Black businessmen were stopped, Black police officers off duty were stopped, Black teens were stopped, some on average once a day as they went to and from school. Most of the stop and frisk practices by NYPD were illegal, but officers knew that their targets had neither the time nor money to hire a lawyer and seek judicial relief.
If the Floyd case had not been brought and decided by the federal court these "overly aggressive" violations of citizens constitutional rights would be continuing.
New Yorks version of that was that if you were Black or Latino and lived in a high crime area, that in and of itself was reasonable suspicion for a stop. Once a stop occurred a pat down was almost automatic and an unlawful search ensued.
Black businessmen were stopped, Black police officers off duty were stopped, Black teens were stopped, some on average once a day as they went to and from school. Most of the stop and frisk practices by NYPD were illegal, but officers knew that their targets had neither the time nor money to hire a lawyer and seek judicial relief.
If the Floyd case had not been brought and decided by the federal court these "overly aggressive" violations of citizens constitutional rights would be continuing.
6
It would be great if someone could come up with a way to reduce crime without incarceration. No one wants to pay for this if it is not necessary. Frankly, the data is not very strong that incarceration has not caused the reduction in crime.
As for Canada having a reduced crime rate, that may have been caused by increased incarceration in the United States, leading to fewer crimes from organized groups extending into Canada from the US. The countries are connected at the hip and crime in one is not independent of crime in the other. What happened in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Russia? If the crime rate went down worldwide, maybe it's connected to sunspots or something like that (just kidding, but my point is, the Canada data is a red herring).
Not more than 25% of the reduction is from incarceration? In the first place it seems very unlikely that this is provable, and second, 25% is HUGE!
An increase in incarceration has a multiplier effect because other people who learn of someone's incarceration are less likely to commit a crime. It takes incarceration of at least a certain threshold before the consequences break through the clutter in some people's brains. If a couple of friends are thrown in the pokey, it doesn't register. Throw 50% of the gang in the slammer, and some of the remaining guys start to wonder whether they're in the right trade. Youngsters don't get influenced by successful older guys. The apprenticeship system is destroyed.
As for Canada having a reduced crime rate, that may have been caused by increased incarceration in the United States, leading to fewer crimes from organized groups extending into Canada from the US. The countries are connected at the hip and crime in one is not independent of crime in the other. What happened in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Russia? If the crime rate went down worldwide, maybe it's connected to sunspots or something like that (just kidding, but my point is, the Canada data is a red herring).
Not more than 25% of the reduction is from incarceration? In the first place it seems very unlikely that this is provable, and second, 25% is HUGE!
An increase in incarceration has a multiplier effect because other people who learn of someone's incarceration are less likely to commit a crime. It takes incarceration of at least a certain threshold before the consequences break through the clutter in some people's brains. If a couple of friends are thrown in the pokey, it doesn't register. Throw 50% of the gang in the slammer, and some of the remaining guys start to wonder whether they're in the right trade. Youngsters don't get influenced by successful older guys. The apprenticeship system is destroyed.
2
It's like the emperors new clothes.
Everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility that high rates of incarceration have led to the lower crime.
Yes "studies" don't agree. But frankly, the track record of criminology studies is pretty awful, they've lost their right to unquestioned expertise.
Back in the real world, broken windows policing works.
Everyone seems to be ignoring the possibility that high rates of incarceration have led to the lower crime.
Yes "studies" don't agree. But frankly, the track record of criminology studies is pretty awful, they've lost their right to unquestioned expertise.
Back in the real world, broken windows policing works.
2
Then explain Canada's drop in crime without the draconian measures of windows policing.
4
I want to add another reason that violent crime dropped in the '90's, and a reason it will stay so in the future. I am not saying this is the "only" reason, but something that contributed. And that is the environment. For decades, cars and trucks routinely burned gasoline with lead in it putting high levels of lead in the air we all breathe, levels that research showed was dangerous. Plus the presence of lead in paint chips in many apartments. Lead is a known neurotoxin, that damages brain development, particularly of toddlers and young children. In the mid '70's, we began to get unleaded gasoline in many service stations and eventually legislation was passed to essentially ban leaded gasoline. Data shows that lead levels in the ambient air dropped with the drop in leaded gasoline being combusted. Since most crime is perpetrated by teens, the early to mid-90's was the first generation to have essentially had brain development with lower, more acceptable lead levels in the air and, thus, less brain damage. This resulted in a lower tendency to violence. And since leaded gasoline will not be re-introduced, this bodes well for future crime rates. Again, I'm not saying this is the only reason that violent crime dropped, but a contributing factor that should be acknowledged.
32
The lead-crime hypothesis was mentioned, although very briefly and offhandedly. Someday soon, I hope, the NYT will explore it in greater detail, and we will see fewer "no one knows why crime is declining" qualifiers in its stories. Its proponents do not claim it is the only reason why crime fell so dramatically in recent years, but it is the only factor that explains why countries as disparate as Canada and the U.S. would see similar drops--and why the countries that kept lead in gasoline have not seen crime declines.
4
I don't like the phrase "the closing of open-air drug markets," because it leaves open the possibility that the crack epidemic might have been brought to an end by police work, which is almost certainly not the case. In all likelihood, the epidemic simply ran its awful course, and any resources devoted to decreasing the supply of crack were probably fairly useless (or at least not worth the cost). Enforcement has been shown to not work over and over again.
3
America is still at war at home. What's to celebrate about a "reduction" in crime. Every five years we have as many dead as another Vietnam war due to gun violence. Most of the dead are young black men. What's to celebrate when in one year America loses three times as many dead as Northern Ireland during the all the years of its Troubles.
6
No surprise that taxpayers are rethinking profit policing and decriminalizing marijuana in the wake of the Great Recession.
4
The penal system should not have a private sector component, period. Adding a profit motive can do nothing but ultimately taint the system.
15
Prison population:
early 70's: about 300,000
5 years ago: 2.3 million
350,000 prisoners suffer from some mental ailment, although it is not clear how many were afflicted prior to incarceration.
There are about 30,000 in mental institutions today.
The erosion in such institutions has led to us imprisoning the mentally sick.
Our whacked out war on drugs lead to incarcerating those who probably would be better served with medical treatment for chemical dependency.
Add to that prison for profit, politicians being rewarded for being tough on crime, and a statistically racist justice system and you have the disaster you have today that cost close to $100 billion annually compared to under 10 billion 30 years ago.
What are your priorities America and is this a wise investment?
early 70's: about 300,000
5 years ago: 2.3 million
350,000 prisoners suffer from some mental ailment, although it is not clear how many were afflicted prior to incarceration.
There are about 30,000 in mental institutions today.
The erosion in such institutions has led to us imprisoning the mentally sick.
Our whacked out war on drugs lead to incarcerating those who probably would be better served with medical treatment for chemical dependency.
Add to that prison for profit, politicians being rewarded for being tough on crime, and a statistically racist justice system and you have the disaster you have today that cost close to $100 billion annually compared to under 10 billion 30 years ago.
What are your priorities America and is this a wise investment?
10
There ought to be a law about it: for-profit prisons should be illegal. Whatever monies were exchanged to bring about these contracts should somehow be made right and the current jailmasters should be sent away with business counceling, if necessary. What to do with the empty prisons now that no one is fulfilling contracts by shoehorning all available bodies behind bars? Run a contest or offer to sell, rent, or give the space to those who come forward with a use for it. One interesting use might be for a form of theater where Phillip Zimbardo's 1971 Stanford Prison Experiment is continuously reinacted, streaming, for a worldwide audience.
6
It's interesting to note that while there has been a dramatic decrease in the level of crime in the United States, the use of illicit drugs -- with the exception of marijuana -- has not changed very much over the past decade or has declined. While most people are in favor of increasing the availability of drug treatment programs, this strategy might not have as big an effect on crime reduction as most would think. And it's not clear that enriching the early childhood of high-risk children would have a significant impact upon the crime rate in the long run. At best, the research informs us that programs such as Head Start have very a modest long-term benefit. Given that the prevalence of serious mental illness among prisoner has risen in recent years, offering more mental health services appears would appear to be a better option, but you can't force treatment upon a person who does not want it and many of those in prison with mental illness would fall into that category.
1
With today's technology there should be less expensive ways to monitor a person and avoid using prisons as our primary consequence for a crime. If criminals use financial institutions they can commit heinous crimes and avoid prison today, they might even get a bonus in excess of a working persons lifetime income. Some would say the big problem is violent crime, I think stealing a working person's retirement nest egg or manipulating their home value to the extent they lose their homes is violent.
There are a lot of people who profit from or who's income is dependent on prisons existing and they will not want reductions in prison population. The NRA will not want laws that keep guns off the streets, their organization is too well funded by corporations that profit from the sale of firearms and ammo. Rethinking the system will require end runs around these powerful groups.
I teach children, occasionally I learn that their parent is in prison. This punishment reaches down from the individual through generations and those consequences should be considered by lawmakers as well.
There are a lot of people who profit from or who's income is dependent on prisons existing and they will not want reductions in prison population. The NRA will not want laws that keep guns off the streets, their organization is too well funded by corporations that profit from the sale of firearms and ammo. Rethinking the system will require end runs around these powerful groups.
I teach children, occasionally I learn that their parent is in prison. This punishment reaches down from the individual through generations and those consequences should be considered by lawmakers as well.
6
The drop in crime maps directly to the reduction of lead in the environment. The research is out there for those who are interested. This is something law enforcement will never acknowledge.
10
"The rise in incarceration has been even more striking than the decline in crime..."
This interesting article inadvertently offers an answer to the decline in crime. If we assume for a moment that there is a finite number of criminals, and we keep criminals locked up for longer periods of time, then we have a crime rate that goes down.
People serving time for one offence are unable to commit others during that period of time, and if they do, they are committing those subsequent offences on people who have also committed crimes. I am not saying tough sentences are a deterrent, just that they prevent repeat offences.
This interesting article inadvertently offers an answer to the decline in crime. If we assume for a moment that there is a finite number of criminals, and we keep criminals locked up for longer periods of time, then we have a crime rate that goes down.
People serving time for one offence are unable to commit others during that period of time, and if they do, they are committing those subsequent offences on people who have also committed crimes. I am not saying tough sentences are a deterrent, just that they prevent repeat offences.
1
Did you read all of the article or just the part that agreed with what you already thought?
“The policy decisions to make long sentences longer and to impose mandatory minimums have had minimal effect on crime,” said Mr. Travis, of John Jay College. “The research on this is quite clear.”
Higher imprisonment might explain from 10 percent to, at most, 25 percent of the crime drop since the early 1990s, said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. But it brought diminishing returns, he said, as those committing less severe crimes also received lengthy sentences."
“The policy decisions to make long sentences longer and to impose mandatory minimums have had minimal effect on crime,” said Mr. Travis, of John Jay College. “The research on this is quite clear.”
Higher imprisonment might explain from 10 percent to, at most, 25 percent of the crime drop since the early 1990s, said Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. But it brought diminishing returns, he said, as those committing less severe crimes also received lengthy sentences."
3
We live in a world with for-profit prisons--prisons that make more money with each additional inmate. What incentive would these prisons have to reduce recidivism rates? Do away with those prisons and both crime and mass incarceration will go down.
18
They have quotas too. Those beds have to be filled so the investors get a tidy return. They also provide slave labor to profit making entities while taking those jobs out of our communities. Double dipping! Oh, what a tangled web we weave...
1
Private prisons breed corruption, as like the Hotel/Motel industry, they do not turn a profit if occupancy rates fall too low. Does anyone remember the Pennsylvania "Cash for Kids" scandal, in which Juvenile Court Judges sent kids to a private prison in return for "kickbacks?" Those Judges are now appropriately serving long Federal sentences and have been stripped of the profits of their illegal scheme!
1
Holding local police commanders accountable for crime in their localities seems to me to be making it the fault of policemen. This is similar to making teachers accountable for a student's learning while not looking at other factors in the lives of students. I believe in community policing, of treating mental and drug problems and incarceration of violent criminals. Non-violent criminals should have intensive community service and be arrested only if they violate the terms of their sentencing. Mentally unstable criminals should be confined to mental institutions for a long enough period of time to stabilize them and should have support after leaving in-house treatment. Drug offenders should have drug rehab and community service. It is time our prisons have only violent inmates incarcerated.
2
[[Katherine Cagle Winston-Salem, NC
Holding local police commanders accountable for crime in their localities seems to me to be making it the fault of policemen.]]
A small number of people are responsible for a large percentage of certain crimes, especially burglaries, armed robberies and drug related shootings. If commanders have granular knowledge of crime patterns they can deploy officers appropriately.
Holding local police commanders accountable for crime in their localities seems to me to be making it the fault of policemen.]]
A small number of people are responsible for a large percentage of certain crimes, especially burglaries, armed robberies and drug related shootings. If commanders have granular knowledge of crime patterns they can deploy officers appropriately.
2
Our country is rife with fraud of all kinds - tax fraud, medical insurance fraud, consumer fraud, corporate fraud, disability fraud, con games victimizing the elderly, insider trading, bid rigging, politicians taking payoffs to pass legislation - the list goes on and the money lost to the economy keeps growing. Sometimes it seems like every other person is pulling some kind of scam. Community service isn't going to cut it if we want to reign in what amounts to a silent crime wave. We need serious prison time as a punishment and deterrent but more than that, we need more certain and efficient methods and rules for detecting and prosecuting these damaging non-violent crimes.
3
PWR, the people committing all those acts of fraud you mention are most likely not being prosecuted anyway. If they are they probably serve time in the luxury of Club Med prisons. There are many forms of community service and I am talking about 9-5 community service jobs serving the homeless, the food pantries, the soup kitchens, and other places that help the needy. They can even go to jail for the night, but we have overcrowded our prisons with people who are not violent. And third.coast, policemen can know the territory and still have trouble preventing the crime. You both remind me of authority figures from my youth who were more concerned with who did it than with what actually happened.
As much as I'm delighted that the article brings out the confusion over what caused the rapid general drop in crime, most dramatically in NYC beginning in 1990, it's a shame that the possible causes mentioned were so limited.
Very few things can bring about such a genuine "free fall" in crime rates, is the problem. Ten years ago I looked very closely at the data and did a series of interviews with people on the streets of Harlem and the Bronx, asking if they remembered what happened, that would explain such a dramatic culture change in those years. Remarkably even those who had been kids on the street mostly didn't remember, except that at a point everything started to work again!
What's clear is that the attraction of the "gang banger" and "wild cowboy" lifestyles pretty much died, moving from the real world to the virtual world you could say, as Hip-Hop exploded as a cultural phenomenon. I think the data is there to prove this was a viral collapse of a crime culture that abruptly lost its welcome, akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union for much the same reason.
That the police keep insisting it was all their doing, seems quite mistaken and very misleading justification for profiling communities for harassment, when what they've really earned is support.
Very few things can bring about such a genuine "free fall" in crime rates, is the problem. Ten years ago I looked very closely at the data and did a series of interviews with people on the streets of Harlem and the Bronx, asking if they remembered what happened, that would explain such a dramatic culture change in those years. Remarkably even those who had been kids on the street mostly didn't remember, except that at a point everything started to work again!
What's clear is that the attraction of the "gang banger" and "wild cowboy" lifestyles pretty much died, moving from the real world to the virtual world you could say, as Hip-Hop exploded as a cultural phenomenon. I think the data is there to prove this was a viral collapse of a crime culture that abruptly lost its welcome, akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union for much the same reason.
That the police keep insisting it was all their doing, seems quite mistaken and very misleading justification for profiling communities for harassment, when what they've really earned is support.
8
What's not being discussed here, is the CAUSE of the "crime wave." The ugly, evil, draconian War on Drugs served to create the unimaginable profits connected with selling black market substances. Our country survived for over 150 years with ALL recreational drugs available at drug stores, and even Macys, Sears, etc. with ZERO problems. There never was a decent reason for making drugs illegal. I'm a retired addictions treatment counselor, and I can assure you, involving the criminal justice system in what is a simple health matter is a recipe for cruelty, greater crime rates, horrendous tax bills and many otherwise innocent people going to prison, usually being serially raped and brutalized. Yes, murders over drug turf are ugly and horrendous. Yes, they would disappear within a WEEK of legalization. Those who wish would simply drop by a tavern or drug store, see to their needs, and move on to a low level job of some kind. Why? Because drug addiction does not typically incapacitate a person, and because nobody WANTS to commit crimes, merely to feed the inner disease that is drug craving.
98
Amen. Well said. Thank God we still have some people that think the way that you do. But for the grace of God, go I.
Robert certainly has a point about incarcerating violent offenders. Violent crimes impact on everyone, not only the victim.
From what I have read, 'hot-spot' policing is also very effective. Community policing, while not directly contributing to crime reduction also has an important role to play. People need to feel they can place more trust in police.
It is clear, that had police in Ferguson been more engaged with minorities, there is a high probability that the situation would not have escalated the way it did.
Everyone should take a look at: The Race Gap in America’s Police Departments (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/09/03/us/the-race-gap-in-america... ,if you haven't already.
This is an enormous problem that needs urgent attention.
From what I have read, 'hot-spot' policing is also very effective. Community policing, while not directly contributing to crime reduction also has an important role to play. People need to feel they can place more trust in police.
It is clear, that had police in Ferguson been more engaged with minorities, there is a high probability that the situation would not have escalated the way it did.
Everyone should take a look at: The Race Gap in America’s Police Departments (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/09/03/us/the-race-gap-in-america... ,if you haven't already.
This is an enormous problem that needs urgent attention.
Are there enough Blacks, 21 - 40 yrs old, with clean record and Associates Degrees, that can diversify the police forces across our country?
1
Violence has declined steadily through the recorded history of civilization. Stephen Pinker argues persuasively that the American crime wave from 1968 to 1990 was really an aberration, probably related to the tremendous social upheavals of the 60s and 70s. A reversion to the overall downward trend was inevitable -- not that better policing and many technological improvements haven't played a role.
But yes, the gigantic American network of prisons, and our huge criminal justice and security apparatus, represents a drag on our economy and needs to be right-sized to reflect the lower level of violent crime, which will go even lower. It's time to put some of those resources to better use.
But yes, the gigantic American network of prisons, and our huge criminal justice and security apparatus, represents a drag on our economy and needs to be right-sized to reflect the lower level of violent crime, which will go even lower. It's time to put some of those resources to better use.
4
Down here in sunny Florida we have tons of for-profit prisons. I have maintained that the for-profit prison business is finite, but that the pot business is not, so as soon as Rick Scott and his friends figure out how to get all the cash from the pot business into their personal pockets, the private prison business will suffer and the pot business will grow, pun intended.
As for crime, when we stop arresting everyone who "looks" like a criminal and may have jaywalked-while-black/Latino/etc., we will be able to shift the cash from prisons to pot. Of course, if you murder someone in cold blood, such as Zimmerman did down here, you will not be jailed since you are considered to be innocent if you are white and the person you murdered is not. Prison populations will continue to fall as the number of guns in the hands of "god-fearing" (meaning "white")Americans goes up so we can shoot "them" with impunity.
I think Richard Pryor said it best: "You come down here (court) looking for justice and that's what you find, "just us."
Follow the money, friends.
As for crime, when we stop arresting everyone who "looks" like a criminal and may have jaywalked-while-black/Latino/etc., we will be able to shift the cash from prisons to pot. Of course, if you murder someone in cold blood, such as Zimmerman did down here, you will not be jailed since you are considered to be innocent if you are white and the person you murdered is not. Prison populations will continue to fall as the number of guns in the hands of "god-fearing" (meaning "white")Americans goes up so we can shoot "them" with impunity.
I think Richard Pryor said it best: "You come down here (court) looking for justice and that's what you find, "just us."
Follow the money, friends.
5
A lower and lower share of young men!
1
Politicians are always the last to know. Over sentencing and over crowding have been a major problem for decades, and yet politicians keep building prisons, especially for profit prisons, that need to be filled simply to justify bad decisions.
3
Right?! One thing I hate about getting old is watching people figure things out so sloooowly.
3
If this report is true then why are local police forces armed to the teeth with the castoff military weapons. I find pictures from Ferguson and other areas in recent months quite frightening in the land of liberty and justice for all. I think this overmilitarization needs to end now with selling this stuff to foreign countries and using the money to better train police to consider the needs of the citizens instead of looking at us as the enemy.
47
How about emphasizing pre-school education and raising the minimum wage in conjunction with reviewing the sentencing guidelines?
4
Yes, let's stop killing and jailing people for selling loose cigarettes, using drugs and other petty crimes and fill the jails with the real criminals - those responsible for the 40+ year financial coup that has taken over America and militarized OUR police departments to protect them. Start with Wall Street and their paid flunky politicians and work your way up.
49
Our greatest right is freedom from violence.
This is priceless, and all else pales in comparison.
People should not live in fear of violent criminal acts, and whatever reasonable system deters these acts is essential to a civilized society.
This is priceless, and all else pales in comparison.
People should not live in fear of violent criminal acts, and whatever reasonable system deters these acts is essential to a civilized society.
7
Best way to deter crime is by making time spent in jail a place where people don't want to go like slow boat to china . Cost of putting up with people in jail system in usa to costly it be cheaper to build prisons in china . USA spent trillion on buying computors from china costing usa millions of jobs that could kept people off streets an employed . Rochester ny is prime example what out sourcing has done biggest employer new yourk state in jail system an 47 percent drop out rate high schools
I don't agree that that's our greatest right but on your other point, the key word is reasonable (and I would add, constitutional). If the research shows that mandatory minimums and stop and frisk, for example, have a minimal effect on crime (and actually do harm), and if research shows that others things like mental health services or community policing have a greater effect, it's not reasonable to continue the old ways.
1
no, our greatest right is the constitution. as for violent criminal acts, stem the flow of handguns, and pay attention to nuts with guns, only then will you have the semblance of a civilized society.
1
Let's throw black people in prison. Especially young black men. The US has 5% of the world's people and 25% of their prisoners; 40% of those prisoners are black. Being black means you go to prison at 6 times the rate of white people. If black and Hispanic people were incarcerated at the same rate as white and Asian people, prison populations would drop by 58%. This 'trend' also translates into harsher sentences for nonviolent crimes, zero tolerance for children, 'stop and frisk', racial profiling and police assault. It's not just about race.
People who go to prison are more likely to have been poor or homeless. People leaving prison are more likely to live in poverty for the rest of their lives. So are their children.
I wonder if this graph would look the same if I only included the poor, segregated communities that today's prisoners grew up in.
There is a level of neglect that occurs with poverty. The teachers don't want to be there, doctors are accusing, basic necessities are lacking, and fantasy thinking rules. There was racial oppression in 1970 but nothing like the assault on citizens that produced by this tyranny.
Consider the possibility that the initial crime wave was produced by police neglect and the 'solution' was assault. Statistics are funny numbers that blur humanity.
People who go to prison are more likely to have been poor or homeless. People leaving prison are more likely to live in poverty for the rest of their lives. So are their children.
I wonder if this graph would look the same if I only included the poor, segregated communities that today's prisoners grew up in.
There is a level of neglect that occurs with poverty. The teachers don't want to be there, doctors are accusing, basic necessities are lacking, and fantasy thinking rules. There was racial oppression in 1970 but nothing like the assault on citizens that produced by this tyranny.
Consider the possibility that the initial crime wave was produced by police neglect and the 'solution' was assault. Statistics are funny numbers that blur humanity.
30
The primary reason that the United States has such a high incarceration rate is that it has a such a high crime clearance rate. In many countries, police make little effort to investigate and solve crimes. Residents in many countries seldom bother to report crimes.
2
This story, amazingly, completely ignores the obvious reason for the drop in crime, a reason that's cited by many social scientists and backed by numerous stats: the legalization of abortion, which took place first in New York State. It's logical that unwanted children would tend toward criminality and abortion prevents them from suffering that fate. Also, open air drug markets cannot be "closed," as the story argues, since they're "open air," not stuck at one location, and the people involved can just meet somewhere else. Crack killed a lot of the customers at these markets and legalized abortion took care of future customers.
53
I agree with you, Peter Benjaminson. Access to affordable birth control makes for much happier, thus better, parenting. I wish they hadn't separated the abortion procedure from other health center because they became targets of protesters.
1
Your argument does not explain the Canadian experience.
Just because the Freakonomics folks liked this idea does not mean it has actual merit. ;=)
Just because the Freakonomics folks liked this idea does not mean it has actual merit. ;=)
Social science often misses the fact that every moment in history is unique. Think of attitudes to drugs, and the changes in those attitudes over the last 50 years, which went to almost encouraging minor drug use as a symbolic act of resistance against the 'system', to a much more anxiety-ridden view of drugs, and one which is much less political (i.e. who sees smoking a joint as a political statement today?).
The environment of ideas should never be written off in social science, and may be playing a significant role in crime statistics. First of all, it seems clear that things changed when at some point people got fed up with violent crime, and I can recall this occurring in the press and statements large and small from the early 90s. Go back a little further to the 60s and early 70s and you have phenomena like the Weathermen and the Black Panthers. That was crime in a different context and sent a message to millions of impressionable minds. The undercurrent of heroism in the age of Vietnam and Watergate was unmistakable. Distort that message a little and it may help explain historical phenomena which are unique to their time, and which may be central to attitudes underlying statical trends like the rise and subsequent drop in violent crime. In other words, leave out the environment of ideas and the historical moment, and social science will consistently get things wrong.
The environment of ideas should never be written off in social science, and may be playing a significant role in crime statistics. First of all, it seems clear that things changed when at some point people got fed up with violent crime, and I can recall this occurring in the press and statements large and small from the early 90s. Go back a little further to the 60s and early 70s and you have phenomena like the Weathermen and the Black Panthers. That was crime in a different context and sent a message to millions of impressionable minds. The undercurrent of heroism in the age of Vietnam and Watergate was unmistakable. Distort that message a little and it may help explain historical phenomena which are unique to their time, and which may be central to attitudes underlying statical trends like the rise and subsequent drop in violent crime. In other words, leave out the environment of ideas and the historical moment, and social science will consistently get things wrong.
2
I would like to see the correlation between crime rates and mental hospital closures in the 1970's and 1980's. Then look at the increase in inmates with mental health problems after that period.
Locking more people up in prison for longer periods may have worked, but what let so many out on the streets in the first place is frequently overlooked.
Locking more people up in prison for longer periods may have worked, but what let so many out on the streets in the first place is frequently overlooked.
71
BINGO.
I am appalled that we have not evolved to the point that most crime is a manifestation of mental illness, personality disorder, psychopathy.
I am appalled that we have not evolved to the point that most crime is a manifestation of mental illness, personality disorder, psychopathy.
4
There is something slightly crazy about saying that a 25% reduction doesn't mean much. If you were living in NYC in the 1990s, it was huge.
32
You missed the point I think -- the article points to studies that say the higher incarceration rate was responsible for "only" 10-25% of the decline in crime rates -- i.e., tougher sentencing was responsible for no more than 1/4 of the decline itself. The article does not say the reduction in crime, which in most cases is far greater than 25%, doesn't mean much.
2
"The fall in serious crime was accompanied by declines in other social ills such as teenage pregnancy, child abuse and juvenile delinquency, emphasizing the role of cultural shifts beyond the ken of the justice system."
Maybe people are just getting smarter.
Maybe people are just getting smarter.
4
In New York, as cited in the article, crime has dropped. However, we have a lot of prisons upstate that are a source of jobs. Many are half empty and those who do require incarceration aren't sent there because they are hundreds of miles from their families. If we could close some of these alot of money could be saved that could be redirected towards mental health counseling, early child hood education etc. But what would upstate do for jobs? Casinos? The handwriting is already on the wall about those although 3 were recently approved to be built. I don't get it when we see Atlantic City downsizing. It will be interesting to see if Gov. Cuomo can close and consolidate these prisons and redirect the monies. Will the corrections officers union allow this? Everything comes down to jobs!
35
The falling crime rate, and the policy that caused this, is a success.
The "fall in crime" is due to more criminals being incarcerated and unable to commit the crimes.
The "fall in crime" is due to more criminals being incarcerated and unable to commit the crimes.
9
Technical violations of probation or parole are now a leading reason (in some states, 4 of 10 new admissions) for reentry to prison. Not to say there should not be penalties for failing to comply with terms of release, but it is an area worthy of further scrutiny. When a new crime is not involved, taxpayers should understand how often this is happening, why re-incarceration could not be avoided, and how to improve compliance in the future.
25
Parolees possessing guns, hanging out with other felons and abusing alcohol or drugs require strong intervention to stop the travel down the wrong path.
We have one of the largest prison populations in the world because we have privately-run, for-profit prisons. These prisons must be fed a steady stream of prisoners lest they fail to make a profit (or justify their minimum contractual fees).
Eliminate private prisons and watch our prison population shrink, especially considering non-violent offenders such as marijuana users.
Eliminate private prisons and watch our prison population shrink, especially considering non-violent offenders such as marijuana users.
155
You make a good point, but even notwithstanding this pressure the prison population has been shrinking. The for profit prisons, however, have moved into the unregulated realm of detainees of aliens under our equally lunatic immigration policies as pushed by Republican xenophobia and racism. That is the new 'growth area' and as Republican candidates excoriate this president - the media should take a closer look at the relationship between these 'custodial' enterprises and the political contributions in 'border states.'
4
We don't have "one" of the largest prison populations in the world, we have THE highest prison population in the world, 7 times the rates in Canada, Australia and most of Europe.
Incredibly in Michigan, we spend more on prisons than higher education.
Incredibly in Michigan, we spend more on prisons than higher education.
6
I am not sure if that the course of declining crime, but I think the reinvestment
in the inner cities by both the government and private investors, cleaned up a big portion of bad neighborhoods. cleaner streets, maintained real estates,
newly paved roads, clean store fronts and so on plays a big role in the revitalization of the metropolitan areas domestically and even world wide.
The trend is moving back to the city and by doing that the mix of people
changes and neighborhoods change in the process with more working class and low income people alike.
in the inner cities by both the government and private investors, cleaned up a big portion of bad neighborhoods. cleaner streets, maintained real estates,
newly paved roads, clean store fronts and so on plays a big role in the revitalization of the metropolitan areas domestically and even world wide.
The trend is moving back to the city and by doing that the mix of people
changes and neighborhoods change in the process with more working class and low income people alike.
8
Moving poor people out of a neighborhood and replacing them with working middle class people always cleans up neighborhood crime. Easiest way to pretend crime is being conquered.
1
Missing from this article is any mention of for-profit prisons - a huge and growing with lobbyists advocating (bribing) our elected people to put more people in prisons so the prison industrial complex can get richer. I think for-profit prisons are an insane idea...and they cost MORE to operate.
173
Young people are just more pacifist - the decline in violent crime corresponds nicely with the increase of video screen entertainment. Supposedly it's been shown that cable tv is a better investment for a prison than more guards - keep the inmates on SOMA. There was a great article recently on the anonymous website about the factors that lead to young Americans not rebel against surveillance, the erosion of rights, etc.
http://anonhq.com/psychologist-lists-8-reasons-young-americans-dont-figh...
We've just turned into a nation of sheeple - for good (lower violent crime) and bad (lower dissent, greater acquiencense to corporate and government dictates, regardless of the morality of the dictate.)
http://anonhq.com/psychologist-lists-8-reasons-young-americans-dont-figh...
We've just turned into a nation of sheeple - for good (lower violent crime) and bad (lower dissent, greater acquiencense to corporate and government dictates, regardless of the morality of the dictate.)
22
“Canada, with practically none of the policy changes we point to here, had a comparable decline in crime over the same period,” said Franklin E. Zimring.
mexico, japan, korea and russia would also be good comparisons. all of these countries have drug problems (including from alcohol), broken windows, guns and aggressive sentencing--but some more than others.
mexico, japan, korea and russia would also be good comparisons. all of these countries have drug problems (including from alcohol), broken windows, guns and aggressive sentencing--but some more than others.
1
The policy really needs to be changed. We suffer from crime every day. Cops do their job more or less but still criminals feel free to do whatever they want. Safety is what our society needs but will new policy help? Let`s hope so. We are tired of living in a nighnmare where noone can feel safe.
2
If you're living in a nightmare where no one is safe, cognitive behavioral therapy will do more for you than any criminal policy. You are not in nearly as much danger as you think. Is it possible that someone will attack you? Yes. Is it likely? No. Recognizing and modifying the beliefs that keep you living in fear will ease unreasonable anxieties and make your life more joyful.
We all need to check our thinking. We love the glow of self righteousness. The catch is, it makes us paranoid. Self righteousness requires us to demonize those who are different, which, in turn causes us to fear those we have demonized.
We all need to check our thinking. We love the glow of self righteousness. The catch is, it makes us paranoid. Self righteousness requires us to demonize those who are different, which, in turn causes us to fear those we have demonized.
3
So I guess that places like Baltimore and Chicago are now much safer as well. Try telling that to the citizens of those two cities who experience shootings in their neighborhoods on a regular basis.
8
many are too young to remember what it was like in the "old days" of the 80s and early 90s, so they understandably compare the safety of their neighborhood with the safety of other neighborhoods. By that comparison, their neighborhoods remain considerably more dangerous.
5
We have BY FAR the highest level of incarceration in the civilized world. In my view this is a MOST ignominious distinction and indicates a vindictive and uncaring society which is, at it's core, sick at heart.
72
In fact, it's one of the few categories in which we lead the world anymore. According to the Brookings Institution, in 2013, there were 710 Americans imprisoned for every 100,000. The #2 country on the list, Chile, had 206, while the average among the 34 OECD countries was 115.
One other category where we can still say, "We're #1", is in the number of super-rich people. Also in 2013, according to the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, of 98,700 people in the world with a net worth of at least $50 million, 46% of them live in the US.
Ignominious, indeed.
rankingamerica.wordpress.com
One other category where we can still say, "We're #1", is in the number of super-rich people. Also in 2013, according to the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report, of 98,700 people in the world with a net worth of at least $50 million, 46% of them live in the US.
Ignominious, indeed.
rankingamerica.wordpress.com
3
More accessable birth control has led to fewer unwanted and abused children who grow up to be anti-social in outlook and behaviour. Look at the age of most offenders and it is in a 20 to 25 year range making the major years of birth for the peak in the late 60's to early 70's.
66
While the decline in crime started well before another phenomenon having broad social effects as well: Our Virtual Lives. The Internet. More so than television, isn't it something that keeps people indoors? Especially children, who no longer play outside. And even with less crime, fearful parents don't let them roam neighborhoods or playgrounds or woods the way I did as a kid.
Or, rather, Overwork plus the Internet. Television took people off their front porches to be mesmerized before their glowing hearths. But interactive media and connectedness online is potentially more hypnotic, and portable, all at the same time that people are doing the work previously done by 3, 4, 5 people. They come home exhausted. Their devices keep them chained to their jobs. They have no lives, no dinner parties, no evening babysitters, no couples volleyball night at the Y. Some even kill themselves running their kids around to overly structured things, the precious darlings. So they Candy Crush out, instead of raising hell in the local bar. Teenagers are too busy texting to go to malls and hang out. Why circulate outdoors when we can circulate on Facebook without rousting our hinders from our soft chairs?
Who has time to be out and about thinking of crimes to commit in these exhausted days where most of us don't really move much, unless to hunter/gather a non-home-cooked, diabetes-inducing meal, except perhaps meth-heads for whom time and brain waves move at a different speed?
Or, rather, Overwork plus the Internet. Television took people off their front porches to be mesmerized before their glowing hearths. But interactive media and connectedness online is potentially more hypnotic, and portable, all at the same time that people are doing the work previously done by 3, 4, 5 people. They come home exhausted. Their devices keep them chained to their jobs. They have no lives, no dinner parties, no evening babysitters, no couples volleyball night at the Y. Some even kill themselves running their kids around to overly structured things, the precious darlings. So they Candy Crush out, instead of raising hell in the local bar. Teenagers are too busy texting to go to malls and hang out. Why circulate outdoors when we can circulate on Facebook without rousting our hinders from our soft chairs?
Who has time to be out and about thinking of crimes to commit in these exhausted days where most of us don't really move much, unless to hunter/gather a non-home-cooked, diabetes-inducing meal, except perhaps meth-heads for whom time and brain waves move at a different speed?
43
Look at the chart again. The internet wasn't around in the early 90s when the drop started, not do you see a change in the drop when it starts to become popular in the late 90s. (The iPhone wasn't released until 2007.)
I see your point, but I wonder to what extent the people who constitute the base for your generalizations have that much daily access to the web.
2
I am always fascinated how well-educated people can look at the same statistics and based on the ideological baggage they bring with them make entirely opposite conclusions from that data. Few examples are more striking than the extremely large statistical evidence that putting repeat criminals away for longer sentences reduces crime 10 - 25%. There is no other factor that comes close to this large of an impact on crime yet you see this statistic repeatedly used (in this news paper dozens of times and thousands of times in the academic literature) to discount the impact. Nobody mentions that there are very few statistical predictors in social policy that produce statistical impacts as large as 25%. In any case, rather than pursuing a political agenda, can we treat this statistic with some respect.
Thousands of Americans are alive today because repeat offenders (most starting at pre-teen ages and accounting for hundreds of minor and almost always violent crime) are now locked away for long sentences whereas in the 80s they would have been back on the street despite two rapes, three violent attacks on others, etc. Therefore, lets focus on what Europe can show us. We don't need prison at all to punish for non-violent crime. That is what America should focus on to reduce the prison industry but those trying to pretend homicides falling 80% in some urban areas has nothing to do with thousands of repeat violent criminals giving long sentences is irresponsible.
Thousands of Americans are alive today because repeat offenders (most starting at pre-teen ages and accounting for hundreds of minor and almost always violent crime) are now locked away for long sentences whereas in the 80s they would have been back on the street despite two rapes, three violent attacks on others, etc. Therefore, lets focus on what Europe can show us. We don't need prison at all to punish for non-violent crime. That is what America should focus on to reduce the prison industry but those trying to pretend homicides falling 80% in some urban areas has nothing to do with thousands of repeat violent criminals giving long sentences is irresponsible.
83
Please cite the basis for your 25 percent claim ( which you conveniently use use after starting with 10 percent). No one is claiming that incarceration has nothing at all to do with any reduction in crime, but the stats are less than clear. There are for example very interesting statistics that show how the world wide drop in violent crime ( which occurred not only in the US, the only country that massively increased incarceration) correlates very convincingly with the reduction in lead in the environment. What do know for sure is that we are not getting better results than countries that incarcerate only a fourth or less as many offenders. The price we pay as a society for the costs not only of unnecessary incarceration but the life long marginalization of these individuals is very high.
5
Look at the School to Prison Pipeline where failing schools, disproportionate minority expulsion puts children on the streets and concentrated poverty provides few alternatives.
Crime control is big business for the actors who are invested in present policies. It allows the police to consume resources without demonstrating impacts on crime rates, the court system relies on coercive plea bargaining and the costs of incarceration benefit prison guard unions and the private prison system. More prison time means more profits!
Look at the National Academy of Science report on deterrence and the American Academy of Political Science report on policing. More police do not mean less crime. Longer sentences simply incapacitate with minimal impacts on crime as even the "experts" speculate. Of course prosecutors argue for longer sentences because it guarantees their employment.
Any discussion of "restorative justice" which combines punishment with reintegration? Nope.
Crime control is big business for the actors who are invested in present policies. It allows the police to consume resources without demonstrating impacts on crime rates, the court system relies on coercive plea bargaining and the costs of incarceration benefit prison guard unions and the private prison system. More prison time means more profits!
Look at the National Academy of Science report on deterrence and the American Academy of Political Science report on policing. More police do not mean less crime. Longer sentences simply incapacitate with minimal impacts on crime as even the "experts" speculate. Of course prosecutors argue for longer sentences because it guarantees their employment.
Any discussion of "restorative justice" which combines punishment with reintegration? Nope.
2
Burglars and car thieves are nonviolent criminals, but they should be imprisoned for all the trouble and fear they cause their victims.
2
Want to stop and frisk me? Fine, I have no problem with that. Of course, I'm not carrying a hypo-kit, drugs, a gun, stolen property, or any other contraband.
Want to live in a safe and relatively crime free society? Move to China. If people are not willing to sacrifice "rights," which are largely irrelevant to most people, in exchange for safe streets, then don't complain when you get shot, raped, robbed, etc.
Want to live in a safe and relatively crime free society? Move to China. If people are not willing to sacrifice "rights," which are largely irrelevant to most people, in exchange for safe streets, then don't complain when you get shot, raped, robbed, etc.
9
Fine, I'll stop and frisk you every day, follow you around stores, and have thousands of others look at you with constant suspicion every move you make. I'll occasionally hold you on spurious charges. I'll throw you on the ground with a knee in your back if you jaywalk. I'll slowly dial this up until you're constantly fearful of my presence, whether or not you're a criminal, because you realise there is only a weak correlation between your suspicion, accusation, and use of brute force, and my criminality.
What happens is psychological warfare. Don't presume supposed representatives of the just element of your own society treating you with such constant, inescapable contempt is so easily brushed off.
What happens is psychological warfare. Don't presume supposed representatives of the just element of your own society treating you with such constant, inescapable contempt is so easily brushed off.
97
wblake, do you have any credible statistics to support your claim that China is a "safe and relatively crime free society"? Compared to which other societies? Are those societies analogous to China, which, for its size, has a relatively homogenous population and not much immigration?
3
It's always amazing how many people are willing to give away everyone's rights because they perceive themselves as to not be violating the law.
But someday, when that political brochure you may be carrying lands you in jail, you may be sorry you gave away your rights against search without cause.
But someday, when that political brochure you may be carrying lands you in jail, you may be sorry you gave away your rights against search without cause.
7
Great article!
One point that should also be considered is that in 1989 for many minorities the only economic way out of the ghettos, projects, etc. and to escape poverty was either music, sports or drugs.
These days the options of getting out of the economic trap that existed 25 years ago are many more than just those three and that has made a difference.
One point that should also be considered is that in 1989 for many minorities the only economic way out of the ghettos, projects, etc. and to escape poverty was either music, sports or drugs.
These days the options of getting out of the economic trap that existed 25 years ago are many more than just those three and that has made a difference.
14
Besides gains in education for minorities one shouldn't ignore this article...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/14/business/economy/the-costs-of-stingine...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/14/business/economy/the-costs-of-stingine...
4