Feb 11, 2020 · 47 comments
Wally O’Dell (Dallas, Texas)
It’s really misleading and actually stupid to lump in Social Security with other taxes. Social Security is unrelated to income taxes for instance. Social Security, unlike every other tax (unless you are a military contractor), is money you pay in expecting to get back when you retire. And it functions as disability insurance if you are unable to work. A single man who earned 23,000 (in 2017 dollars) and who retired in 2020 would pay in 130 thousand dollars but get 190 thousand back on average. That’s very different than being taxed 2 grand a year to pay for hundreds of billions for the F35 fighter jet that never got off the ground.
Marc Litt (nyc)
Please add interest on the debt — this generation’s payment for all the unpaid spending in the past.
Jack Frost (New York)
To reduce the deficit add a means based tax to everyone's federal tax bill. The tax would be added each year for 15 years, adjusted for inflation and reduction of the deficit as required. Additionally reduce spending where necessary and also strengthen the social safety net programs and expand Medicare and Medicaid. In addition to the deficit reduction tax we must increase the payroll taxes for Social Security and make everyone at every level of income above $60,000 (to be adjusted upward for inflation annually) pay the SS tax on their full amount earnings including capital gains from equities. The probability of this happening is less than zero. The screaming of the Republicans would reverberate across the nation. This would be worse than anything that Franklin Roosevelt and his progressives could possibly think of. On the other hand a moderated version of these taxes and reductions could possibly avert the catastrophic financial tidal wave that is slowly making it's away at us. Nothing of course will happen....except that the debt is continuing to grow unabated. Sooner or later we'll have to deal with it.
Dana O (NYSt.)
@Jack Social Security is a trust fund we pay into; not sure if the amounts rely upon drawing down on that fund. If wealthier folks contributed pennies more during their pre retirement years, with other tiny adjustments, the entire fund wound be balanced and not drawn down. As well, the budget is not a homemaker’s checkbook that needs “balancing.” That is a fiction that prevents wealth building investments such as a European level rail system that make wealth.
Joseph Ross Mayhew (Timberlea, Nova Scotia)
One very salient piece of information that jumps out at the careful reader, is that every item dealing with "Income security" - i.e. helping people who need help in a timely and effective manner - has declined, many of them quite significantly. Part, but certainly not all of this decrease can be attributed to by the economic recovery which has miraculously continued under Mr. Trump;s exceptionally erratic "guidance". However, some of it such as food assistance, help for disabled people, "welfare" and several others, has been due to very mean-spirited budget slashing. It may help to try to socially re-frame helping folks who really need it, as an INVESTMENT - especially when it comes to the areas of health and anything involving children. A dollar spent helping a struggling child in an impoverished home and community environment, will surely save MANY dollars down the line, in terms of health costs, possible police and jail expenses, other forms of assistance, etc. Money spent on helping people improve their overall health, will also pay for itself many times over down the line. // I notice also, a very disturbing trend in cutting expenses for programs which protect citizens in a variety of ways. Food inspection budget - cut! Center for disease control - stagnant. Environmental regulations slashed left right and center and enforcement greatly diminished. Doesn't seem like the Trumpists are interested in "the common good" in any dedicated and systematic way..surprise!
S Fox (Connecticut)
Thank you so much for this article and the graphic. Well done.
Bruce Hartford (San Francisco, CA)
For people doing research, please provide this data as a simple table or spreadsheet without the different sized fonts and cluttered placements. Thanks.
Mark (Flagstaff AZ)
@Bruce Hartford Hey Bruce, they provide their sources at the bottom of the page.
Willy C (Templeton CA)
Please do a similar work up on how each income bracket pays to fund...
Gene L (Chicago)
Using a larger font for larger dollar amounts is interesting, but I don't think it adds to the story. Anyone who grocery shops or looks at their annual budget knows how to add up numbers. It's easy to compare these to my rent / mortgage vs. my Netflix account. Separately, I hope CVS doesn't get any ideas. Their receipts are already big enough.
Karen H (New Orleans)
This is one of the most helpful columns you've produced in a long time. It actually helps me compare my tax burden with the benefits I'm accruing -- and the costs I'm bearing. More like this, please!
Tim F (Hamden, Connecticut)
Seeing it broke down like this, why dont more people get upset with military spending? Its mind numbing. Listening to a certain segment of the population you would think the $15 per person spent on WIC is the reason people cant get by in life
John S. (Natick, Ma.)
I hope someday someone will care about this. I don't see anybody talking about it nowadays.
Ron Tyler (Calgary Alberta)
The amount of money the American government spends to make up its Defense budget for ONE year is like spending $80,000 per hour EVERY hour for 1,000 years ... and then it does the exact same thing the next year and the next year and ...
David J (FL)
I wish, just wish, that whenever Social Security expenditures are mentioned in a budget conversation, the contribution to the budget would also be mentioned. Yes, the expenditures are huge, but so are the contributions. A more honest approach would show the difference between the two. I'm a firm believer that Social Security contributions and expenditures should never have been included in the Federal Budget. Or as an alternative, the budget should be presented "excluding Social Security" much as the CPI is presented "excluding food and energy".
Frank (NJ)
things are good now with all this spending. How is the US NOT going to end up bankdrupt like Atlantic City casinos are? I'm really just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
USMC0846 (Maine)
@Frank And we all know it will drop at some point.
xoxo (New York)
@Frank Sound like it's time to tax the 1% A LOT more.
Informer (CA)
I'd be interested in an analysis per tax source. 50% of federal revenues come from income taxes. ~35% comes from from payroll taxes, but most of that $ goes to mandatory spending (e.g. SS) and so isn't part of the discretionary budget. Corps only pay in ~8-9% federal revenue. It looks like a cost $3600/person in discretionary spending -- far more if you divide by the ~130 million US fulltime employees vs. 327 million population. And the military is the bulk of that. The increase in military funding could have doubled HUD's budget. Ugh.
Eugene Patrick Devany (Massapequa Park, NY)
I thank the Upshot for its commitment to conveying data in an intelligent way. Your articles are always far better than the overly liberal NY Times editorials and worth the price of the paper. On my wish list is a graphic that depicts state and federal spending over time. A lot of areas should be funded by the states and the federal government borrows money to help them out. There was a time when Mr. Trump was concerned about the debt and now he does not even seem to be concerned about the deficit. Back in 2000, Mr. Trump, (not Bernie Sanders), proposed a 14% wealth tax on the rich to pay off the national debt. Should I vote Democratic to cut federal spending or just let the grand-kids worry about it?
Paul (Brooklyn)
I can summarize your lengthy report and make a comment on it. With his massive record deficit spending mainly because of an insane pentagon budget and massive corporate welfare coupled with record student, consumer and credit card debt, an economic collapse will come. The only question is when and how bad.
Rich Gomez (Kansas City, MO)
Everybody is concerned about SS debt on the Federal budget but what everyone tends to forget is that the Social Security fund is separately funded by the SSI Tax on income of 6.3% as is the medicare fund separately funded. My point is that everyone needs to get off the bandwagon that the Social Security Act is a burden on the budget, therefore cannot be an entitlement. Officially it is called the "Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI)) program.
Paul (Brooklyn)
@Rich Gomez agreed, but, the biggest heist in American history was not some brinks truck robbery or the mob heist at JFK awhile back its's the trillion dollar rifling of the SS trust fund which was supposed to be a separate fund like you mentioned. It is technically the biggest part of the US debt if I am not mistaken. If it was not rifled, SS would be solvent till eternity and the age restrictions and additionally funding would not have been necessary.
Sean (Washington, DC)
I work in federal budget. Respectfully, this is a very misleading article in that it essentially credits Trump with the current budget breakout. Congress holds the "power of the purse." The authorizing committees oversee mandatory spending and the appropriations committees oversee discretionary spending. The FY 2020 federal budget was the result of a conference between the Republican Senate and the Democratic House. All Trump did was sign the bill into law. (Remember Schoolhouse Rock?) This article does nothing to reflect the enormous cuts proposed in Trump's FY 2020 budget and creates a false depiction to voters. Credit where credit is due. This is Congress' product, not Donald Trump's.
Joshua (Alabama)
@Sean I understand what you are saying but at the same time in the budget for 2020, Trump took ownership of the budget and slapped his name on it (see attached link). Budget for 2021 will be no different. If Trump claims the budget allocations are his idea, then yes you can credit Trump with the good or bad outcome. whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/budget-fy2020.pdf
Sean (Washington, DC)
@Joshua Respectfully, brother, you don't understand the federal budget process. The link you provided is to Trump's FY 2020 Budget Request, submitted to Congress a year ago. The President's Budget is just a proposal, establishing the administration's priorities and values. This gets submitted to Congress every year in February. That budget is not reflected here in the NY Times article. The President's Budget was dead on arrival on Capitol Hill because it was full of extensive budget cuts to social, humanities, and benefits programs in order to support the vast increase to military spending. The Democratic House of Representatives and the Republican Senate (who all want to get reelected) come up with their own budgets, that often don't reflect the President's Budget at all. They then "conference" it out, compromising to create an appropriations bill. All the president can do is sign it into law or veto it. That's what this article shows. Congress' appropriations law for FY 2020. Not Trump's. I WOULD be interested to see what Trump's budget proposal would look like, if they mapped it out dollar for dollar like this. (Hint, hint, New York Times!)
Penrodyn (Seattle)
@Sean But Trump signed the legislation, so he does have some skin in the process.
Penelope (NYC)
It would also be helpful to see the percentage increases/decreases here as that would provide a more 'apples to apples' analysis of these changes.
Bob Krantz (SW Colorado)
Thanks for a detailed and personalized review of federal spending. Seeing the numbers, especially $15k per person, is sobering. And it provides one real anchor in the discussion about "fair" taxation. In a sense, anyone paying much less than $15k in federal taxes is getting a bargain. The breakdown also makes me think of how people would feel about paying taxes if each of us could allocate where our dollars get spent.
Larry Bierman (Norman, OK)
@Bob Krantz Income is not fairly distributed. The benefits to the rick are generally worth more than those to the poor. Here are couple of examples: Highways, one could say that those who can afford big cars and travel thousands of miles a year benefit form highway expenditures more than those of us who ride a bicycle; Schools, while it is a benefit to be a member of an educated society, those of us who have no children get any direct benefit. One could go on -- only those who own stocks benefit directly from the FEC. Etc. I worked at the country courthouse for years and it was very obvious to me that the system tremendously advantages the wealthy. Most of the $14,352 per person is expense that has very little or no direct benefit to me. To say that one is getting a bargain when it can be demonstrated that much of what is spent by the government actually oppresses whole classes of people is wrong.
Joel Carr (Colorado Springs, CO)
@Bob Krantz I believe somewhere around $5k per person is being added to the national debt each year. Wish the revenues where included in the “budget”.
Sean (Greenwich)
The Upshot claims that, "For health and retirement programs, increases are generally steady because of rising health care costs and an aging population. For programs that address income insecurity, like unemployment and food assistance, spending tends to decrease when the economy is doing better." So how does that claim square with Trump's new budget proposal that slashes those programs The Upshot claims "are generally steady"? Time to revisit the graphic? Will we now see a new graphic showing how much will be cut from those areas of the budget that were "generally steady"?
James (Chicago)
@Sean Remember, in Washington DC a decrease in the rate of increase is called a cut. Said with numbers, if Medicare costs were increasing by 10% over the last few years, and a President proposed to only increase spending by 9%; the 1% difference is called a "cut." In the real world, if I get a 5% raise for the last 5 years, and then only get a 4% raise this year, my pay increased.
Sean (Washington, DC)
@Sean, this in no way reflects the Trump budget request or priorities. This represents the FY 2020 budget hammered out by the Republican Senate and the Democratic House. All Trump did was sign the bill into law. (Remember Schoolhouse Rock?) Please see my post above regarding the details. Trump's budget request is a very different story, as it slashes any safety net, social, and humanities programs in favor of vastly increasing military spending. Fortunately his budget was dead on arrival in Congress. This Upshot article is extremely misleading, directly associating Trump with this budget breakout.
Sean (Greenwich)
Please tell us why this lists all sorts of increases in the federal budget when Trump has just proposed a budget with massive cuts in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, children's health insurance, environmental agencies, and virtually every other part of government not the military? And could you also explain to us why there is not a single mention of the trillion dollar deficits forecast for years to come? Wouldn't that have given this article important perspective?
Bob Krantz (SW Colorado)
@Sean From the Times summary of the Trump budget proposal published Feb. 11: President Trump released a $4.8 trillion budget proposal on Monday that includes a familiar list of deep cuts to student loan assistance, affordable housing efforts, food stamps and Medicaid, reflecting Mr. Trump’s election-year effort to continue shrinking the federal safety net. No mention of changes to SS or Medicare--and those spending rates and increases are fixed by law.
Chris (Chicago)
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there are 156 million people who are employed full and part time. So double the cost to the tax payer from what is published in this article as I doubt many five year olds are chipping in. This is going to sound cold but old people are expensive to keep going. It will get worse with a declining birth rate and aging population. May want to rethink immigration, we will need someone to pay the bills.
Will (St. Louis, MO)
Any chance you could add a line item for golf/resort expenses?
Dave (Oregon)
@Will ...and 'Rallies'
Harmon (Earlville, NY)
Excellent graphic and summary. Thank you
Krzysztof (Kraków)
If you want to help Ukraine don’t give them money, their corrupt politicians will steal it, give them weapons. Weapons can’t just be stolen and sold off, they will be used in combat.
David Weintraub (Edison NJ)
It's pretty insane that farmers get more money than all other professions combined.
Ben (Florida)
@David Weintraub Yes. It is socialist wealth redistribution. Trump supporters should think about that when they say that Trump is the only thing standing against socialism. I don’t want my tax dollars going to people in red states growing corn and soybeans just because Trump doesn’t understand how tariffs work!
Anonymous (New York)
@Ben Its only bad when Democrats do it.
Denise (Ether, USA)
@David Weintraub - Your likely correct. Today Farm, Conservation & Commodity programs get 23% of the 278 Billion US agriculture budget. During the Great Depression, farm subsidies were created to keep the family farm afloat. Now wealthy investors, large agribusiness, and mega-farm-estate heirs receive most of the US farm subsidies. https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/12/31/790261705/farmers-got-billions-from-taxpayers-in-2019-and-hardly-anyone-objected
John (Los Angeles)
Good to see expenses towards Secret Services rise by 15%. That must bridge the deficit for protecting Trump and his family at Trump properties.
Ronald (Lansing Michigan)
@John just hand trump a .45, and let all the Secret Service go. trump can handle himself.