Would have been interesting to note the home of Egyptian pantheon was, in fact, in Ethiopia. Ethiopians had a Greek Epic, now lost, told about them. If the could share the Nile as they once did in days of Osiris...
Trump the anti-environmentalist climate science denier is the main hope for averting a war over water supply. This will happen more & more as climate change progresses.
We Ethiopians know the national interest of our historically, regionally ,sociologically,religiously interconnected by the nile egyptian brothers. In turn they also understand the natural right of Ethiopians over their own river water soils overall the right of development.
3
The scariest part of this headline may be that "Trump is mediating." He is so eager for a Nobel Prize that he will focus on that to the detriment of both Ethiopia and Egypt.
Ethiopia has all God giving right to use their own water the colonialism agreements is dead also the dam project benefits all neighboring countries I'm sure the dam doesn't effect Egypt water flow because it takes 2 years to fill up the dam I'm from Nigeria but I follow this issue for the past 5 years really misunderstood by both countries we should all get along and help our over populated nations !
2
Mediation from Trump is one way!!! Ethiopia needs to be very careful prior signing any deal. I advise that Ethiopia should not sign any deal now; otherwise the future generation of Ethiopia will be a burden they can't handle. The mediation should be done between Africans themselves without involving any other non-Africans!!!! African's problem can only be solved by Africans themselves. For example, Ethiopia should press to continue the negotiation using Entebbe Agreement which promotes water sharing equitably, fairly and sustainably. There is no need for Ethiopia to sign any deal now; I hope Ethiopia will have great representative who have diplomacy wisdom to delay the negotiation.
Ethiopia is taking a measured approach to filling their reservoir over a four year period allowing a vast amount of water to continue to flow on to Sudan and Egypt. The ultimate problem is with an exploding population in Egypt coupled with poor management of the Aswan Dam and Lake Nasser which is filling with sediment. (That sediment is a huge gift from Sudan and Ethiopia and is needed to replenish the agricultural soils down river - something the Egyptian government should work on instead of wasting money on the military and a new government complex.)
Shouldn't it be "millennia," not milleniums? and there's a period missing after "Mr. Abiy flew to Cairo to offer his reassurances"
3
Not mentioned in the article is the huge amount of water Egyptians waste using the same agricultural techniques that the previous indigenous Egyptians had been using for thousands of years before the Arab conquests. Egypt certainly needs to conserve and there is one country that could help them immensely and n this endeavor. Israel. Israel has pioneered drip irrigation and has automated their care. The problem is the Egyptian farms are too small, many and employs large numbers of Egyptians. While they will be able to solve their agricultural problems with Israel’s help, they would have to decrease their population and create many jobs. Things that the Egyptian government doesn’t seem capable of accomplishing.
2
Oh. Trump is mediating? What could possibly go wrong?
Why is the population of Egypt being allowed to "soar"? Why isn't all of Africa committed to zero population growth? That's got to be part of their way out of all their resource and economic problems. Indeed it is an imperative for the whole world to cut the population. The runaway growth of the human herd is the NUMBER ONE cause of all problems with the planetary ecosystem, such as the 6th mass extinction, or 6ME, which we are causing. So why is that aspect of the issues written about here totally ignored?
1
Outstanding piece. Thank you.
If electricity is the prime issue let them burn coal or help them build nuclear power generation. Water for hydroelectric may sound good but as one sees here it is not for all involved. Water sustains life, electricity defines progress. Since there are other methods to produce electricity let the water do what it does best.
1
Superb coverage, thank you. This visual style is very informative, and for geography lovers (guilty as charged) addictive.
3
It’s almost a sociological truism that the major factor accounting for the rise of authoritarian government in ancient Asian cultures was the need and ability to control water—in contrast to relatively democratic Western cultures where water has been abundant, available to most at the local level.
It’s a dynamic worth thinking about with continued population growth combined with massive climate change. The rise of authoritarianism In the contemporary world may have geopolitical forces as much as in the past.
1
The article neglects to mention that Egypt bases its claims on the 1929 Nile Waters Treaty, imposed by Britain at a time when it held a protectorate over Egypt and was the primary or sole colonial power in the "Anglo-Egyptian Sudan", modern Uganda and Tanzania. Ethiopia, then the only other fully sovereign signatory. was just beginning to modernize under the regency of the future Emperor Hayle-Silassie and lacked the means to use even a small part of the waters that flow from its highlands. (It was also desperately seeking allies in the face of growing threats from Italy. Agreeing to sign did Ethiopia no good, though, as Britain stood aside when the Italians invaded 6 years later.) This treaty, clearly unfair to the upriver countries, is still being renegotiated but so far in ways that fail to incorporate Ethiopia's well-founded demand that some of that water serve its needs as well.
Egypt has maintained that the 1929 treaty codified what it considers its inalienable rights, as opposed to merely being a colonial-era agreement imposed by the region's then-dominant power. In the absence of a new treaty among all the riparian states that clearly defines Ethiopia's rights, the matter is left to negotiation.
Egypt's maximalist position may cause it to become a greater loser than might be the case if it took a more consensual approach, creating a clear need for international arbitration. Whether President Trump is the appropriate arbitrator is another question.
2
I lived in Egypt for years, working in Alexandria as project manager of an oceanographic study of the coast. I can tell you the Mediterranean Sea level is not rising. Over millennia the coast of Egypt, riding on the African tectonic plate is sinking. Hence, Cleopatra’s palace, once on the ancient coast, is now underwater. Global water resources are dwindling as populations grow. This is not simply an Egyptian problem. And it does not help to trot out political scams such as rising sea levels and non-existent climate change. Cities and countries near the sea must desalinate for drinking water, and conserve water resources.
@Burnet1187 Sea levels are rising globally and since the Mediterranean Sea is connected to the ocean at the Straight of Gibraltar therefore the Mediterranean sea level is also rising.
1
@Newfie Hate to disappoint you, and contradict CNN et al. Sea levels are not rising anywhere. Some of the nonsense I have read mention millimeters. That is pure conjecture and impossible to measure in a dynamic moving field including tidal changes. All this is a political scam being foisted off on the gullible to gain power and money.
As glaciers melt, rivers dry up and populations keep increasing, water wars will erupt all over the planet.
1
Ethiopia harvesting the power upstream will contribute to economic growth. The most important thing for Egypt is to keep challengers of regional hegemony down. A dam in a river will not remove water, only influence the timing. One exeption; if you build a shallow resorvoir in the hottest spot on earth evaporation will reduce available water - read Aswan.
There is someone more qualified than Trump to mediate, someone who has already won a Noble Peace Prize....
Homer Simpson, who said, when it was announced, "It's about time ".
Homer may be a buffoon, but he's a good hearted buffoon, which is better than an evil buffoon, like the one in the Oval Office.
Maybe Mike Pompeo should ask Trump if he can locate Egypt and Ethiopia on a map.
3
That they think Donald Trump will somehow remedy an out of control environmental and riparian dispute shows just how forgone this situation is already. Both countries are desperate but as usual, humans can only scramble and react politically because they were to ignorant, selfish, greedy, and ego driven to act thoughtfully and with foresight earlier and before the problems became insurmountable. Humanity is a poorly evolved species that will ultimately be its own undoing. And still people think there is a god in control of this hot mess we like to refer euphemistically to as civilization.
"President Trump is mediating."
That certainly is reassuring. What financial reward will the POTUS get for mediating? Probably enough free irrigated land for a Trump Egypt golf resort. Donald Trump does not do freebies.
No water? No problem: Egypt will empty out as Egyptians by the thousands will all start heading for Europe.
Good luck with that.
2
@Atikin
I doubt it will be just 'thousands' - more like millions!
1
As water in the Nile is diverted to other uses - irrigation, etc. - there is less to flow into the Mediterranean. That is a much more likely cause of salt water encroachment than climate change. The GERD significantly reducing the water flow into the Nile during fill-up of the dam will exacerbate the problem.
I don't understand why people criticize Trump (actually the state dept) for getting involved. It is a serious issue and potentially very destabilizing for Africa. Of course, these same people would criticize Trump if his administration didn't get involved. TDS - no cure.
1
Donald Trump, Mr. I'm a nice guy, a stellar mob boss is in the middle of mediating this? Beware people. He's digging in your pockets.
1
It's stunning that Egypt isn't doing anything about its overpopulation. Moreover, it's actually shunning most ways of birth control with religious leaders preaching that large families are good.
Think about it, 40% of Egypt's population right now are children. This is a truly scary number, they won't even have resources that their parents used to have once they grow up.
1
@Cyberax They have a new program to encourage smaller families. We will see if it is successful.
As their income rises, fertility will drop as it has done in multiple developed world
2
Trump is mediating? Expect the worst possible outcome. Unless Jared gets involved. Then, expect an even worse outcome.
2
If Donald Trump is incapable of mediating any issue that doesn't give him either wealth or glory.
My thought are Ethiopia is good example in Africa by doing this huge power project and i fully support them. The benefits will be huge for the region and Egypt itself. One things is that Egypt must accept change and start respecting Ethiopia as a sovereign country.
2
My apologies, but what I've been trying to point out for decades is that the area is running out of water. Since nothing has been done to curtail population growth or pollution output, the situation has been worsening every year. We are close to the point of no return, if not past it.
Eventually there will be wars waged solely due to water, like the Syrian Civil war, but without the veneer of religious sectarianism.
Egypt is nearly done for. The pyramids survived centuries of banditry but they won't survive this. I'm truly sorry about that, but at this point I can't see a way to dodge this.
1
That shows how far we are from depending on solar energy to satisfy human energy consumption growth; it will be utopia if nuclear is left out. Shouldn't industrialized countries have intervened to offer Ethiopia financial incentives to move toward solar or nuclear rather than allow them to ravish pristine land and alter a unique and immense ecosystem? Afterall, Europe has become rich by taking from those countries, now it should be the time to give back
3
Both Egyptians and Ethiopians should seek the help of India where different states are forever fighting over water sharing from rivers that cut across the landscape through multiple states. They could learn some of the methods used to keep peace. Water is critical to all life on earth not just human beings. Politicians should not be left to negotiate by themselves, civil society should find ways of entering these processes. Solutions can be found only through talks however difficult it may be.
2
The colonial era agreement signed between Sudan, Egypt and Great Britain excluded Ethiopia. The British needed cotton from Egypt to use in their textile industries in Liverpool and Manchester after dismantling those industries in colonial era India and moving them to the British Midlands. That was the foundation of Pax Brittanica in the 18th and 19th century.
I hope Egypt will stay away from using irrigation systems from the Nile to water their rice and cotton fields and switch to crops that require less quantities of water. The country's survival will depend on it.
5
I don't particularly believe in borders or sovereignty in theory, but in a world where such things must exist, there is no relationship more symbiotic than that of Egypt and the Nile.
3
Calling Trump in as "mediator"? The greatest divider in history? Makes you wonder what's in the Nile water these days.
5
Egypt: too much population
Ethiopia: same
8
@Mamie Watta Bullseye! A search in the NYT's archives will show articles as far back at least as the early 70s showing that improved healthcare (suppressing child mortality and increasing lifespan) with no decrease in fertility rates are not sustainable. Then Egypt was around 60 million,now the gross overpopulation should be obvious to all.
The other major mistake here is building hydro dams when all four of the countries involved are excellent candidates for solar PV which would be hugely productive and use NO water. Frankly the Aswan Dam has been a disaster. The "control" of river flows has brought underground salt water intrusion further south. (again, look in the NYT archives) As the gardener in Chinatown commented "salt water, no good for plants"
In ancient times Egypt exported grain which was part of why Julius Caesar and Marc Antony wanted the territory for Rome. Today Egypt imports grain because it cannot feed its overly huge population.
And as the reporters make clear, Egypt is polluting the Nile at an alarming rate.
The dam should be canceled, solar farms should be built at an accelerated rate so that losing the dam becomes merely crazy numbers in ledgers (between the world Bank and IMF the money can be fudged--it has been done before) and in the bargain Ethiopia also should think birth control. Lest anyone complain that I ,an American lask others to refrain I have deliberately fathered NO children because we need fewer not more.
2
Sadly, the article is one sided. Can’t believe that three journalists collaborated to produce this. It regurgitates the Egyptian propaganda.
Ethiopia was not a party to any colonial agreement between England, Sudan,
and Egypt. Even under international law that govern transboundary rivers, Ethiopia has the right to use its water.
There is no mention in this article about life for Ethiopian farmers. Ethiopians also depend on the Nile. The Egyptians not only don’t want Ethiopians to use the Nile but they also don’t want any irrigation or any projects on the 11 tributaries that feed the Nile. It is as if Ethiopia exists for the sake of Egypt. Things have clearly changed. Ethiopia will use its water. Ethiopian lives matter too.
13
It's a compelling story and a singularly human centric one.
Unmentioned are the uncounted, unknown, and unknowable ecological catastrophes which continue apace as human agriculture struggles to keep up with the exploding populations of the three major countries. Economic realities give them little choice in ways available to acquire food and water.
Dam building became a serious ecological threat with the completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1970. Plant and animal habitat destruction have been in progress since the emergence of advanced and developed human cultures more than 5000 years ago. Now the Renaissance Dam adds to the stress on the river's vast ecosystems.
With no limits on human population growth, climate change, toxic pollutants, and salinization, the very sustainability of the Nile biome is at grave risk.
4
Some commenters here seemed to miss the point of the article. Please check out this BBC link discussing the dangers of major dams to the environment: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46098118
2
@JayC
I don't think that the dangers of dams in general was the point of this article actually. It's more about geopolitics surrounding water management across borders (or in this case disputes). It also highlights future problems in water supply with 2 countries (well 3 in a way as Sudan is also impacted, but they seem in favour of this new dam and I can see why) with exploding populations. It's also about how climate change is impacting these water supplies.
I can list you a lot of reasons or specific dams that have had negative impacts on the environment. Not all dams are the same. Dams had a big boom in development in the 60's when people didn't know or care about the consequences. Old dams are neglected and result in damage or failures. As pointed in your article link, some countries (maybe Brazil) don't take into consideration, or care, about the negative impacts, or how to mitigate them.
But from what I read about this new dam in Ethiopia (and as I listed under other comments), as far as major hydroelectric dams go, on the surface, it seems like a good spot for one, there seems to have been some good due diligence on the design (although I can't say for sure obviously), it will be very beneficial to the area (Ethiopia development, Kenya will buy surplus energy, Sudan is on board and it will actually help extend the life of the dams downstream in Sudan). This is a case of Egypt thinking they own the river and are not being reasonable it seems.
2
As I've been living in Egypt for several years I can firmly say, there is no Egypt without the Nile. The Nile is life. The Nile is also over-exploited (by all countries), increasingly polluted, and suffering from the accelerating consequences of climate change and rising temperatures.
However, there should be no doubt, Egypt will not accept a scenario where it's access to the Nile is restricted or reduced. Egypt may have no fondness for 'foreign adventures', but if there is one thing that could unite its one hundred million citizens behind the most powerful military on the continent, it's the Nile.
81
@Nick
I highly doubt Egypt will attack or even has the capability to attack Ethiopia which itself is a country of over 100M and growing extremely fast (economically and demographically).
16
@Nick if water is such a concern, maybe Egypt should focus on its out of control population growth. A million new people every six months is ridiculous and will cause water problems regardless of decisions that Ethiopia makes.
42
@Nick I respect your analysis. If you visit Ethiopia someday and ask Ethiopians their perspective on the Nile, I am sure you will realize it holds the same importance as it does for Egyptians. The dam is a matter of national pride for Ethiopia. Citizens from all walks of life- students, teachers, doctors, farmers- you name it, have had a hand in this project since the dam is entirely funded through bonds and donations from them. You would be hard-pressed to find a living person in Ethiopia without a stake. There is no scenario in which a military conflict leads to a reliable water supply for Egypt. A peaceful resolution is the only option.
31
"The Nile ends its winding 4,000-mile journey through Africa in Ras el-Bar, a seaside town on Egypt’s north coast, where the river slips quietly into the Mediterranean."
Shouldn't Egypt first stop the river flowing into the Mediterranean Sea before complaining about what Ethiopia is doing with the dam upstream? Conserve the water that you already have before demanding more from others.
1
@Alfred Yul Egypt is flat. How would you do it? The only sensible place along the waterway to store the water is in Ethiopia due to topography and temperature.
I have little sympathy for Egypt. Unsustainable and irresponsible population growth, lack of pollution accountability, mistreatment of Christians, corruption - the generals should clean their own yard first. After all, it's Egypt which built its own huge dam at Aswan first. Ethiopia has every right to do what it wants.
I was blown away by the geomaps in this article. Amazing. Brought back memories of travels on the Nile. Unforgettable.
11
This piece appears completely one-sided. What was Ethiopia’s relationship with the Nile for a thousand years? The article outright repeats myths of Egyptian nationalism that the usage of the Nile is for Egypt alone, almost ignoring the fact that the source of the Nile originates from Ethiopia whose civilizational history also goes back a thousand years.
8
Dear Mr. Trump, your childish obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize only makes it harder for anyone to support your candidacy. But I would support it wholeheartedly if you bring about peace and solidarity between polarized Americans in the United States.
3
Gross mismanagement of finite natural resources is at the heart of the problem. As populations swell, economists deny Malthusian warnings - assuming in their rational world that prudent stewardship coupled with technological improvement will help such resources support ever increasing demands. While the potential to do so is there, sadly, the practical reality consistently suggests otherwise.
3
"For Thousands of Years, Egypt Controlled the Nile" this is totally untrue! It would be accurate to say "For Thousands of Years, Egypt Benefited From the Nile". How could a down stream country possibly control a river?
How can you prevent Ethiopia from developing and its land and utilizing rain water (Nile River) for electricity and agriculture? Ethiopia is still one of the poorest and least developed countries where most of the people don't have access to electricity. Ethiopia is building this dam to reduce poverty and bring some modernity that the whole world takes for granted, like electricity, to its people. Egypt should show some maturity and workout a deal for mutual benefit.
5
@BH
And its not the same Egypt. It's like equating Iraqis with ancient Babylonians. Ancient Egyptians have nothing in common with Arabs ruling Egypt now. Some of their genes live on... in Christian Copts.
7
This piece appears completely one-sided. What was Ethiopia’s relationship with the Nile for a thousand years? The article outright repeats myths of Egyptian nationalism that the usage of the Nile is for Egypt alone, almost ignoring the fact that at least one of the sources of the Nile originates from Ethiopia whose civilizational history also goes back a thousand years.
6
Trump is mediating! What could possibly go wrong?
Kushner to the rescue - maybe he can solve this dispute the way he snapped his fingers and solved the Israeli-Palestinian dispute! Heck, why stop there: after the Nile dispute, they can help the India-Pakistan dispute, the Korean peninsula and the world... By the time, they're done, one Nobel prize won't be enough for Trump and Kushner - those Scandinavians will have to give them two or three Nobel prizes each.
1
Americans loathes the one-child policy of the Chinese government, but hates the population growth in Egypt and Ethiopia. Well, which is it?
The United States is a nation made possible by damming the rivers and bending nature to human will. It’s rich for NY Times readers to lament what the Ethiopians and the Egyptians are doing with the Nile.
2
The Nile floods and retreats, leaving fertile soil in the desert that has sustained Egypt for millenniums. Now global warming is drying it out while rising sea levels push saltwater into its mouth. Overpopulation and dictatorial mismanagement pollute its belly. The Ethiopian dam will cause further distress. What our epically clueless president - who probably couldn’t tell the Nile from the East River - can do in the way of making a Nobel-Prize-Making “deal” resolving some of this is beyond my imagination.
3
@the doctor It stoped leaving "fertile soil" when they built the Aswan. The fertile soil is filling up the reservoir behind Aswan.
In the 1960s, the Arab states tried to deprive Israel of critical water by diverting much of the Jordan River. How'd that turn out?
3
I bet it's much more efficient to clean up the Nile than to spend years and years on negotiations. Also, the Nile has sheltered Egyptians for centuries, but now the climate change is destroying it in decades. You can see why climate change is the biggest problem now, for all human beings alive.
2
Maybe crunch time is finally coming for Egypt. The population size is staggering and unsustainable...the same for the entire planet:
Historical Population Over Time
Year Pop. ±% p.a.
1 4,000,000 —
1000 8,000,000 +0.07%
1500 7,300,000 −0.02%
1805 4,000,000 −0.20%
1882 6,712,000 +0.67%
1897 9,669,000 +2.46%
1907 11,190,000 +1.47%
1917 12,718,000 +1.29%
1927 14,178,000 +1.09%
1937 15,921,000 +1.17%
1947 18,967,000 +1.77%
1960 26,085,000 +2.48%
1966 30,076,000 +2.40%
1976 36,626,000 +1.99%
1986 48,254,000 +2.80%
1996 59,312,000 +2.08%
2006 72,798,000 +2.07%
2017 93,287,000 +2.28%
Source: Population in Egypt[11]
12
It's climate change that led desperate Sunni farmers in Syria to flee into the cities. This generated subsequent conflicts with the Alawite-dominated regime of Bashar al-Assad.
The result? A civil war with millions of refugees and tens of thousands of dead and dying for the better part of the last ten years. The area became the arena of competing regional and international powers (Russia, Iran, ISIS, the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) in the interim somewhat reminiscent of the Balkans as an ante-chamber to WWI.
Given all of the additional dynamics complicating the role of the Nile River in the area including endemic pollution, overuse, increasing populations, and lax regulation I see nothing but further conflict.
If anybody is looking to Donald Trump for a solution... guess again. Just ask the Palestinians. He alone could make a peace proposal so onerous that it would end up uniting Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Trump's the world's number one climate change denier and proud of it.
This is a monumental classic crisis of the commons under conditions of degraded and declining resources coupled with increasing demand. That's nothing but a powder keg about to blow.
2
As I scrolled down and looked at the beautiful pictures I was excited to read this article. Then the text of the header begins and as I read along everything is still looking good. Then I come across the last sentence, Trump is mediating.
I don't think this situation will end well.
2
Rest assured any attempt at deal making by Trump will fail That is the only certainly in this dispute. He has the negotiation skills of a hyena.
3
Water is life. Without it, we are doomed. It is the single struggle that will define the coming century, across the globe. This is just a warning shot over the bow.
1
@Clyde
Exactly. And that is also what the climate change denialists cannot comprehend: the single biggest risk from climate change, even bigger than rising seas, will be falling supplies of potable water and deteriorating farmlands across the globe. Lack of water and food can and probably will kill many long before the rising seas can drown the cities and force mass migrations.
1
“President Trump is mediating.”
That means both countries lose.
1
@Bailey T. Dog
Why is an American president mediating between two African countries? Where are the African leaders to step up?
The effects of "climate change" on the Nile are completely hypothetical. It is tiring to read article after article of the climate change impacts that are decades out and spurious in details. It may prove accurate at some point or may not. To report it as a fact is troubling to me.
1
That people still deny climate change despite all the science and physical evidence of the changes is more troubling.
1
@Grainy Blue You didn't really address my concern.
@Gaius Cassius
Your concern, as best I can tell, is that the effects of climate change are "hypothetical" and we (humans) cannot predict what will happen to the Nile. Right? The science on climate change is pretty conclusive - which you can look up as I don't have space to recap here. And computer models and scientists have been pretty accurate in gauging the effects of climate change so far. And no, the effects are not decades out - they are here now, not to the extent they will be, but here.
So what do you think is hypothetical? Climate change or its effects on the Nile basin? If it is the former and you are ignoring all the scientists, I don't have anything new to offer you. If it is the latter, my understanding is that as the climate warms, much of the Nile basin is going to be practically unlivable from a combination of heat, lack of food and water, desertification and droughts. Add ongoing pollution, overfishing, poor farming practices, corrupt governance and human overpopulation, and the outlook for the river (and for the region) is pretty bleak.
The Arab spring began in Cairo in 2011 - in part as a protest of increased food prices (and/or shortages) caused by a drought. It also seems that the civil war in Syria likewise began from peaceful protests against shortages caused by drought-afflicted harvests. I will leave it to you to guess what happens as climate change continues to take its toll on the region's populace, which is young and still growing exponentially.
There will undoubtedly be negative impacts to the ecosystem of the river if this dam is built, not just in Egypt but also in Ethiopia. Were the environmental impacts even considered and studied by qualified experts before construction started? Just because climate change is to blame for certain woes in Egypt, doesn't mean building this dam is a smart idea. The fact that Ethiopia's president runs around saying "I promise nothing will happen", is a pretty good indication of a lack of rigorous environmental assessment.
@mjb
I’m not going to claim that there will be no negative impacts (even wind farms have negative impacts). But after reading some articles (including about its design), it looks like it’s in a good spot as far as hydroelectric dams go.
Once the reservoir is filled (the filling period is where there’s a significant impact to Egypt as it will reduce the volume of water that enters Egypt) the water will be balanced. Adding a dam adds regulation to the river (which can be bad), but there are several dams in Sudan and Egypt, including one not that far downstream in Sudan, so the river is already regulated due to hydropower. A dam will reduce the sediment of the river which can also be bad. But in this case I’m not sure if there will even be a net change in the Nile Delta since again, there’s existing dams downstream that already act as sedimentation settling ponds. And interestingly it will help extend the life of the downstream dams which are in filling from sediment.
I get that it’s difficult not to be cynical in projects like these. And I don’t know of the geopolitics of the area. But it seems like a good project for the whole area (Sudan is in favour, Kenya will be sold the extra electricity). It’s just Egypt who, from what I read in this article and others, are not at all being reasonable, basically thinking they own the river. I get their concerns during the reservoir filling period, but long term this does look like a good project.
2
Well, to fail is human, to condemn is divine — unless you’re getting the Nobel bobble head.
As mitigation falls short of reality, as it so often does, (usually because we’re drinking the swill of our great big brains), some know when to say “enough.”
Trump = some.
The article, “Rising Seas Will Erase More Cities by 2050, New Research Shows”, states several hundred million people will be displaced. Climate change management was a slow roll of the dice, and plenty of foul winds were blowing doubt and misunderstanding. Trump just called it as it is — no more bets, the dice landed, and everyone lost, except the dealer (won again).
Maybe it’s time to start preparing for the next Great Migration rather than stare at the climate dice any longer. It just doesn’t look like a climate genie is coming around the corner.
Yet, real public concern and engagement, strong competition and an open market? There are real energy, population and climate problems in need of big solutions for peoples to adapt to 2050 and beyond.
Ready? Place your bets. Throw the dice, dealer. Go for that prize, and God bless if you earn it.
Nice to see something like this headlining the front page instead of Trump's exhausting shenanigans.
2
Doesn't Trump trust Jared to handle this?
Too many people are dependent upon a limited source of fresh water is the greatest threat to the existence of several nations. The next threat is the possibility of war. If Ethiopia begins to starve Egypt of its most vital resource the Egyptians will not have any other recourse. Ethiopia is hell bent on controlling the water supply and making Egypt a beggar nation.
I don't know what will happen next but as the Nile drys up there will mass migrations of people looking for more sustainable habitat to live in. No nation can exist without water. We have only to look at our own Southwest and California to see the result of the haphazard and misuse of water resources. Mexico is at our mercy and has little or no say in the use of the Rio Grande or the Colorado Rivers. The mighty Mississippi is another example of waterway at great risk with New Orleans routinely threatened because of the restricted flow to the Gulf go Mexico. Delta regions and wetlands have been ruined. Even our Great Lakes have seen decline.
Tragically unless the conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt is settled peacefully there will be a tragic war and it will spread across the region. The Nile will not disappear but severe restrictions of its flow will ruin the Egyptian economy and quality of life. Its not a matter of if, but when. Ethiopia is feeling empowered while Egypt feels threatened. It's a recipe for disaster. Mr. Trump would do well to stay clear of this conflict. And keep quiet too.
4
@Jack Frost
Thoughtful post, thanks. TRUTH.
Governments can squabble all they want, but nature will have the final word.
4
Colorado used to think it controlled its eponymous river.
California had other thoughts about it.
How'd that work out?
What people don’t understand is this-river Nile starts in lake Victoria. At the same time countries like Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya are prohibited to use or divert the lake’s water for agriculture purposes because doing so would complete stop the flow of the mighty Nile. All this is because of a treaty signed by England and Egypt in the 1920s.
Once these countries start using the lake water—there will be no Nile and the Ethiopian dam will cease to exist.
2
@Shaaban
If you look at the map in the article, you see that the Nile (like most rivers) have several tributaries. Yes, the Nile starts at Lake Victoria, but the Blue Nile River originates in Ethiopia, and joins the portion of the Nile River (which originates at Lake Victoria) in Sudan at Khartoum.
2
@Shaaban you're wrong.
85% of the Nile water comes from Ethiopia also known as the blue Nile. It is called the blue Nile because of its color. The Nile not only takes water to Egypt but deposits the soil that it erode from Ethiopia’s highlands on Egypt’s banks. So not only does Ethiopia give its water but also its soil to Egypt.
Ethiopia is building dam to use own water, the blue Nile.
2
Egypt under Nasser built the Assuan dam on the Nile with Soviet support. My question is: who is building this one?
1
@waldo
China, IIRC.
The title should much more properly be "for Centuries the Nile Controlled Egypt".
Ancient Egypt - and today's country - have always depended on the benison of the river's water, and especially the rise and fall of the river in it's natural state.
It was never (until recent times) able to control the river in any way. Predict its flooding, yes. But control? Nope.
2
Let's hope that diplomacy provides a way for Ethiopia and Egypt to work out an agreement. The next conflict may come from Uganda, where they take pride in the start of the Nile flowing from Lake Victoria. Resolving this conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia is even more important, as it will provide a diplomatic framework for future water rights conflicts regarding the Nile.
2
This is too difficult an issue to have someone like trump involved. He has no mediating skills whatsoever. Given his hostility to Muslims he is no right to insert himself.
The Nile is the life of these countries. It must be managed very carefully given the current issues like overpopulation, climate change, etc. Food production will become even more difficult with time.
As with the Aswan Dam it will change the future.
3
Absolutely wonderful photography. Thank you Laura Boushnak.
12
For thousands of years Egypt treated Ethiopia as a store house, in antiquity Ethiopia was known as the land of Punt, a vassal state and constant source of gold, timber, grain.
Now Ethiopia is rising on it's own and with an Ethiopia first policy.
Work together or everyone suffers.
4
“Egypt’s population increases by one million people every six months.” There you have it. my spouse and I personally chose not to have children despite understanding the sacrifice this would entail for us personally. But the agonies that await the coming generation will be the worst in human history, and as they say, the living will envy the dead. Why oh why can’t we make sensible decisions about human destiny? And as though it’s not bad enough, President Toilet is injecting himself into the mix?
8
Trump will need a 900 acre golf course (built by illegal immigrants) in the desert as part of his cut.
5
Trump Mediating...which means he will directly take directions from Mr.Netanyahu and AIPAC... which in all probability will advocate a "no-solution" OR encourage conflict in the region to purposely result in a powerless or stateless Egypt, to then takeover Sinai.
No this is not a wild story...wait and watch this will happen in the next 10 years..and the then Republican Administration will add Sinai to Israel's map just as Mr.Trump added Jerusalem, Golan and West Bank to Israel !!
25
@Sam Swaminathan I froze when I read “Trump is mediating”.
15
@Sam Swaminathan
Conspiracy theory?
6
@Sam Swaminathan
Why on Earth would Israel reverse forty years of mutually beneficial peace with Egypt over a dry, dusty desert?
You shouldn’t spread such baseless conspiracy theories. When you do that, you encourage more conflict and hatred.
9
From the article: "Already, the Nile is under assault from pollution, climate change and Egypt’s growing population".
Many people do not really understand what a threat climate change poses to humanity.
Consider that a population of a few million human hunter-gatherers was apparently beyond the carrying capacity of the planet as most places where we showed up the megafauna disappeared.
Around 10-12,000 years ago, when large climate oscillations settled down, we developed agriculture which allowed us to double our population many times into the billions.
But agriculture faces big challenges if we don’t change our ways soon (1), as do our fisheries, and if they both decline significantly, forcing us back to being largely hunter-gatherers, history tells us that out of every 1,000 people you see maybe one survives.
Except this time it won’t be meat on the hoof with mastodons, large flightless birds and picking lobsters off of New England beaches. Going back to trying to hunt and gather during the 6th mass extinction isn’t the best timing so one in a thousand may be wildly optimistic.
1 IPCC Western N America drought 1900-2100
http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png
6
Egypt never controlled the Nile. No one has. I suspect Climate change may have more of a say here than Ethiopia does in the end.
They controlled the water that flowed through their land. In fact didn't the first empire fall because of diminished and unpredictable flows over many years about 3-4 thousand years ago?
I get the worry, the Nile makes Egypt possible and they do have a right to its water. I hope that Ethiopia works out a model for filling the dam that doesn't limit the flow so much it isn't possible to use Lake Nassar water to make up the difference without permanently lowering its level.
32
@magicisnotreal The Nile was controlled by the British from the Victorian period through to their withdrawal from Africa in the fifties and sixties.
The White Nile, which is the longer of the river’s two main tributaries, rises in the territory to the south of Lake Victoria that was once part of German East Africa. However, in 1919 this was ceded to the British as a League of Nations Mandate.
The Blue Nile rises in Ethiopia. Ethiopia was never part of the Empire. However, it has generally been on friendly terms with Britain. It fought on the side of the British against the Islamists in the Sudan back in Victorian times. It was liberated by the British (from the Italians) in 1941, and guaranteed its sovereignty in the Anglo-Ethiopian Agreement of that year.
One of the positive accomplishments of Anglo-Ethiopian cooperation was the abolition of slavery in 1942, resulting in the liberation of some 4 million slaves.
7
I was in Cairo for a month in 2011 as construction of the Grant Ethiopian Renaissance Dam began. Even then the signs of desertification in Egypt were ominous and everywhere. My hosts, academics at the University of Cairo, understood the geopolitical implications of the dam and its existential threat to the millions of people living in the lowlands of the Nile delta. They worried about the way a dewatered Nile, combined with rising sea levels and temps in a changing climate, would force farmers and other rural residents into Cairo, where water was already scarce and social safety net services even scarcer. They worried that the dam would start a war in which the only winners would be the military contractors, leaving everyone else either thirsty or dying of thirst. Nearly a decade later, it is sobering to see this slow-motion catastrophe still taking shape, an object lesson in the fundamental weakness of strongmen, no matter which side they're on.
2
Another thing that is very often overlooked is this exact issue: hydroelectric power. Everyone wants renewable energy - yay! - but when countries go damning rivers, there are very often drastic effects downstream. The same thing is happening in Vietnam. The Chinese built a hydroelectric damn and cut off the water supply to a major river in Vietnam, which has had a drastic effect on fishing, among other things.
The law of unintended consequences.
@Mike
The Chinese are well aware of the effect of their dams on the major rivers of Asia.
@magicisnotreal
So would you rather they build another 100 coal-fired Electric plants? You can’t demand they use renewables and then complain if they do.
1
Who give Egypt the right to decide what another country can do to develop its economy? The Ethiopians are building a dam on their own land, in Ethiopia! Am I missing something here? The Ethiopians have the right to do whatever they want on their land. Egypt does not own the Nile. The problems of Egypt are caused by Egyptians: dictatorship, underdevelopment, fanaticism, corruption,… There are there countries behind the demise of Islam; these countries destroyed Islam and made it a religion or ignorance, violence, misogyny, racism, extremism, exclusion, regression…and that’s just what Egypt is. (With all due respects to the ones who are fighting there to change things)
The future for Egypt is very bleak: a country of 100 million inhabitants growing by a million every 2 months, one of the first importers of wheat in the world, limited natural resources, limited water resources, corruption, fanaticism, …to make it worse they have a puppet, a joke as a president.
5
The water management issue is resolvable if too much nationalistic rhetoric does not get in the way.
But this dispute is yet another manifestation of the root of all that threatens the planet.....world wide overpopulation. Water management, agriculture, rising salt water seas, and climate change would all be alleviated with a smaller world population.
I am in my 70s. When I was in elementary school, we were taught that the world population was 2,5 billion people. And today it is about triple that and still growing. Add a second dimension that the world wide standard of living is increasing, thereby increasing the per capita consumption of resources.
The world could function quite nicely with one billion people. Maybe we should be rooting for the corona virus.
7
Thank you for this outstanding photography and cartography that enormously has helped readers like me understand this situation. Excellent.
5
Maybe it is time for egypt to show the high technical achievement in creating fresh water from red sea water.Whether it is through salination or creating man made stream from red sea into the nile river.
Independency is important for sustainable country resources in the future.
It seems that fresh water scarcity will be normal for the future, so it is good for egypt to mastering the future technique.
This article is a treasure trove of information for an ignorant person like me, well written, beautifully illustrated. The comments generally reflect bias, preconceived notions and political points of view. The decisions by small neighboring countries to unilaterally do things that may adversely affect neighbors is on a grand scale the same sort of problem we face with our own neighbors. If we do not learn to think, act, and serve beyond ourselves, which we have not yet learned as a world in millions of years of evolution as hominins, we will face eternal war, and we will destroy ourselves, no matter who is mediating. So there.
2
@Frank Mitchell
Excellent response Frank. Love thy neighbor as thyself, the Good book says
Egypt is spoiled and has abused the Nile and it's waters for thousands of years without ever having to consider other nations through which Nile flows.
Nations like ethiopia and Sudan have every right to take waters from the Nile for their needs.
The only solution is to honestly negotiate looking at every country' needs and each country stop wasting and poluting the Nile waters. A Fair Agreed Upon Water Conservation Proogram, with severe penalties for violaters, MUST be sigend by all relevent countries with UN and US or just US be the Guarrantor of the Agreement Compliance.
That's the only way a war can be avoided between Egypt and Ethiopia.
2
Who give Egypt the right to decide what another country can do to develop its economy? The Ethiopians are building a dam on their own land, in Ethiopia! Am I missing something here? The Ethiopians have the right to do whatever they want on their land. Egypt does not own the Nile. The problems of Egypt are caused by Egyptians: dictatorship, underdevelopment, fanaticism, corruption,... There are three countries behind the demise of Islam: Iran, Arabia Saudi, and Egypt. These countries destroyed Islam and made it a religion of ignorance, violence, misogyny, racism, extremism, exclusion, regression… That is just what Egypt is. (With all due respects to the ones who are fighting there to change things)
The future of Egypt is very bleak: a country of 100 million inhabitants growing by a million every few months, one of the largest importers of wheat in the world, limited natural resources, limited water resources, corruption, fanaticism, …to make it worse they have a puppet; a joke as a president.
4
@James That is why we need a special immigration program for victims of water scarcity. Northern Europe and the US have plenty of water.
The photos remind me the Nile cruise I took last year from Luxor to Aswan. It was a beautiful and peaceful river with so much history. Sad to see it threatened.
This problem, and all problems with climate change, stem from one simple and huge problem that no one wants to address: over population.
234
@Mac7429
The majority of historical emissions have come from the wealthier countries.
So often I see people post something similar to your post, but they never give a plan as to how they intend to reduce the human population in an ethical manner in the amount needed in the little time we have left.
We need to focus on the problem, emissions.
14
@Mac7429, is it really? Or is it a desire for greater per-capita electricity supply?
1
@Erik Frederiksen Egypts population is growing faster than their emissions. Green house gas emissions is a worldwide problem that will probably not be addressed in time. Egypt's population will put much more short term pressure on its water problem. Ethiopia, of course has a population problem too. Droughts are likely to cause famines in both countries, as well as all of Africa and the Middle East too, both of which are suffering exploding populations.
21
I hope this situation can be resolved to save the health of the Nile
itself, which is polluted and not properly maintained by Egypt from the sounds of things. Can’t believe once again Trump is inserting himself into this in his never ending quest to obtain the Peace prize, that will, hopefully forever, dog him as something Obama has that he does not. Maybe he could try restoring peace in the USA that he has nearly destroyed, as the first place for him to start!
94
@Kelly
Difficult to think that after last weeks Middle East Plan announcement that Trump and boy wonder are at it again.
Egypt will not be moved by the wonderful negotiating skills of Trump,Pompeo, Jare so those talks are dead till after the election.
After all we have the great NAFTA Two deal and China
enough winning till the democrats will back the White House and the senate, then real talks can happen.
6
Neither side should accept the so called mediation of Trump-a man who is ignorant about history and world geopolitics.
Egypt is a country which has been economically unstable and politically unreliable for decades. There are no indicators which suggest that Egypt will continue to survive as a nation. What is more likely is more turmoil as economic realities begin to bite and the population demands changes which are not available.
Putting a hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile will not greatly interrupt the water supply to Egypt in the long run. Egypt has more to fear from climate change and creeping salt into farm, land as well as diminishing potable drinking water. Egypt has not been a good steward of the Nile River as it flows through that country-creating a polluted river which is a health hazard.
Having a dictator as head of state is a negative sign that Egypt can successfully deal with all of the climate and economic threats now impinging on that country. Dictators like to build bigger palaces and a larger military while the population suffers. Egypt has their own "dictator disease" which is typical.
88
@Pushkin You are entitled to your opinion in terms of politics, climate change or even stewardship of the Nile. However to say "no indicators suggest Egypt will continue to survive as a nation" is out right laughable. It has stood as a nation for thousands of years, through occupation, colonization, and multiple revolutions. Egypt is among the most stable countries in the Middle East and Africa and will remain so. It is significantly more stable than Ethiopia or any other country in the immediate region and your comment shows that you understand little about the geopolitics of the region.
4
@Pushkin
Trump is ignorant - period! He could no more comprehend a matter of this complexity than he could comprehend honesty. Neither government should even consider any arrangement that Trump recommends.
10
"While the two nations spar over the dam, hydrologists say the most pressing threat facing the Nile stems from population growth and climate change. Egypt’s population increases by one million people every six months — a soaring rate that the United Nations predicts will lead to water shortages by 2025."
In fairness, it might have been helpful to point out that the long term adverse effects of the Ethiopian dam will likely be less than those of Egypt's Aswan Dam built in the Sixties, which chronically starves farmers downstream of replenishing soil nutrients from seasonal flooding. The blue waters of Lake Nasser, lying in the lovely graphic just upstream of the dam, flooded numerous archaeological sites; only the colossal stone sculptures of Abu Simbel were removed from the lake bed to a higher site before flooding.
Finally, the new dam might prove a political boon to the current Egyptian military regime. It may provide a cover for its corruption and ineptitude, creating a nationalistic cause for rallying a suffering populace in support of an authoritarian strong man. The Egyptian Nile and its fertile valley are in steep decline with or without an upstream Ethiopian dam. The current Egyptian government will do nothing to effectively counteract that. The new dam provides it with a convenient scapegoat for its failures.
115
@woofer Yes, indeed, Egypt's stewardship of the Nile must include a hard look at Aswan High Dam and the cascade of environmental disasters it unleashed. Egypt cannot carp at Ethiopia, while ignoring the damage from Aswan that lies in plain sight. It looks like Egypt wants to divert attention from their own failures and issues.
25
@Michael O’Brien, One of the problems associated with the Aswan High Dam was the increased incidence of cases of the blood fluke disease, schistosomiasis. Has this been considered for this new dam?
8
@JerryV
As far as I know, no engineering project has ever considered wider environmental health issues, until the engineers' faces were "rubbed in it".
8
Water problems. These dams hold back silt which keeps river deltas in balance. So the river deltas are eroding, and sinking due to fluid extraction, while sea level rise is accelerating and maximum storm strength is increasing.
The Himalayan glaciers help sustain 1.5 billion people in 10 countries in Asia. Glaciers are important water sources for many other places like California and South America. And the glaciers are retreating globally.
We also have increasing drought and saltwater infiltration of agricultural lands and groundwater. We also have increased heat which dries out soils through faster evaporation.
As the water goes, so does our food supply and a hungry man is an angry man. As these resources become scarce people will squabble over the crumbs and we have quite a few nukes floating around.
From Yeats:
"Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."
3
Hydropower is a scourge to this earth in the vast majority of locations.
5
The ongoing and worsening of saltwater infiltration of the breadbasket of Egypt from sea level rise--the Nile Delta--means that Egypt will be uninhabitable well before this century is out.
It's not the only country that will suffer this fate.
5
I was in Egypt a couple of years ago. What is truly amazing is that on the outer edges of the Nile Valley you can walk maybe 20 feet up a hill and you are out of the valley and into the desert. It makes you see how much the Nile is the only reason people can live there. There is a limited amount of people that live in that crowded valley and you can't have the population growth they have without a total catastrophe dam in Ethiopia or not.
16
If you can leave politics aside for a moment I think Mark Twain was correct. Whisky is for drinking and water is for fighting over.
6
Perhaps the headline has it backwards. In reality, for thousands of years the Nile controlled Egypt.
14
Trump mediating??? What a riotous joke.
22
Kudos to the photographer, reporters, and graphics designer and to the Times for putting this piece together. Effective and powerful way to inform its "readers" and tell this story in the digital age.
35
There is no doubt that because the Egyptian landscape is already under stress, a large dam is going to cause serious problems. My heart broke looking at these beautiful and poetic photographs, fearing that yet another natural wonder and all lifeforms that are sustained by it, may be damaged by some massively destructive "project." How are we going survive on this planet if our destructive impulses cannot be contained?
5
@JayC Ethiopia suffers from regular droughts and the dam would transform the nation. It's not just some "project."
4
@kechacha It's nevertheless not without serious consequences to the environment, as with all dams. Look at China.
1
In 1960 Egypt and Ethiopia had around 50 million people. Now there are 200 million. For NYT thought-leader Ross Douthat this is presumably evidence of the vitality of these non-decadent societies.
Ok, so there is a problem with water. But there is also desalination - there are many experts in Israel, just next door - and other technologies and management methods. Challenges are just a spur to human ingenuity. Egypt will survive, and hopefully, continue to grow. "Be fruitful and multiply," as it says in the Bible.
2
@r a
The official estimated population of Egypt is 102,334,404 and not 200 million. That's a big difference.
1
@Fred
Think he was referring to the combined populations of Egypt and Ethiopia which is about 200M.
1
'President Trump is mediating'.
How long before he insults both leaders, starts a war.
4, 3, 2, 1.
13
“Those who control oil and water will control the world.” - Mark Twain
10
There are a number countries that are breeding themselves to disaster and in which there is no discussion of how to limit population and preserve the ecosystem they depend on. Egypt no longer feeds itself and the violence of internal disunity is leading to more suppression and centralized control by a dictator. All those thousand of years of reliance on the Nile that produced one of the greatest civilizations is going to end with desperation, mass death, and civl collapse. Nothing will prevent it. Climate change will worsen it.
The rest of the world cannot come to its rescue and will watch in horror and try to keep its fleeing population away from its borders. The Arab world is not far behind in population growth through out the Middle East where women are chattle and treated as brood mares not allowed equality and choice.
These are simply the facts not an argument and the coming disaster will be here long before the end of this century.
Ethiopia is far from defenseless and Egypt cannot mount a war against them without going through the Sudan. The killing if it comes will be total war with the death of thousands upon thousands of civilians inevitable.
It is a tragedy, deeply saddening for all who will watch this terrible event as it happens.
21
Egypt relies on the Nile for 90% of its water. It has historically asserted that having a stable flow of the Nile waters is a matter of survival in a country where water is scarce.
A 1929 treaty (and a subsequent one in 1959) gave Egypt and Sudan rights to nearly all of the Nile waters. The colonial-era document also gave Egypt veto powers over any projects by upstream countries that would affect its share of the waters.
At the same time, I can understand why Ethiopia needs this massive dam. The $4bn dam is at the heart of Ethiopia's manufacturing and industrial dreams. When completed it is expected to be able to generate a massive 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Ethiopia also sees the dam as a matter of national sovereignty.
Moreover, Ethiopia is not bound by this 1929 colonial-era treaty, it was not part of this treaty
I will be surprised if Donald Trump can solve this dispute and get the Nobel prize
6
I thought this a GREAT article! A good perspective on potential water wars. It is really bad news for all involved that the Trumpians have there fingers in this.
7
'Ethiopia is staking its hopes on its $4.5 billion hydroelectric dam. Egypt fears it will cut into its water supplies. President Trump is mediating.'
Gawd help them!
6
And yet in America we continue to refuse to support birth control. We refuse to help other countries control their population growth, and we continue to contribute more than our share to global warming. We are contributing to the destruction of civilization. We are also looking at the possibility of global warfare as resources like water, clean air, fertile land, etc., relocate because of climate change.
In other words mankind has become its own worst enemy. This dam is just another illustration of our failures to plan and take into account the earth's limited carrying capacity.
37
The need to add "climate change" as a significant cause for all the world's ills apparently prompted inconvenient facts to be left out of this article.
The Aswan High Dam has blocked the flooding that deposited soil in the Nile Delta. The Delta is shrinking and sinking, while the reservoir behind the dam fills with sediment. Relative sea level in the Delta is rising because land surface is sinking by as much as 1cm per year.
Sea level along the SE Mediterranean coast is not rising, as can be readily verified by data from PSMSL tide gauges.
The new dam will reduce the sediment load entering Lake Nassar.
8
@daibhidh No - that's not true. In keeping with every other sea on the planet the Med is rising
Take a look at any of the Satellite data. Take a look at NASA. Or ESA. Or the UN. Or the AAAS.
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise-6/assessment
2
@Edward - Thanks for the reply, but SW Mediterranean isn't shown in your link.
Here's NASA's global map of satellite trends:
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/internal_resources/185
Here's a map of tide gauges:
https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/map.html
NASA maps extreme upward trends along W. Australia and the Solomon Is., but tide gauges there show sea level falling since 2010.
A moot point in any case. Sediment loss, compaction, and groundwater extraction are the primary factors affecting salt water intrusion in the Delta.
In addition to what is covered in the article, Egypt is making significant investments in renewable energy (particularly Solar and Wind) such as the recently completed Benban, one of world's largest solar parks. Other projects include building one hundred thousand greenhouses for vegetables, phasing out water intensive crops, and desalination plants on the coasts. In what is probably the largest long term investment, Russia is assisting with the construction of Egypt's first Nuclear power station (price tag $30 billion). The future does not have to be one of conflict, but one of trade, social and technological development, and shared prosperity.
2
It is too late but they need their own "Green Deal" and birth control.
13
It's hard to imagine Trump getting a Nobel Peace Prize when he assassinated a government official in Iran.
105
@Jacquie They gave a Peace Prize to Kissinger. They'll give it to anyone.
3
@Jacquie a government “official “ who trained and supplied others to kill Americans. RIP
Trump is mediating? So whoever gives him the biggest hotel in their country will win. That's pretty obvious. Egypt has more money so they can pay him a bigger bribe. Look for a big uptick in reservations by Egyptian's at his DC hotel.
With Trump mediating, no one, absolutely no one involved will trust any agreement that comes out of this.
16
If trump (our Electoral College winner) is in any way a participant in this, then it will assuredly be a disaster and will cause further embarrassment to our country.
12
"President Trump is mediating". "Mr. Trump, playing on his self-image as a deal maker, has suggested that his efforts might merit a Nobel Prize."
Subtly delivered gallows humour at its finest.
12
This is not just about two countries. Population growth, growing water needs and climate change are huge background factors. That some 80% of the Nile's waters flowing into Egypt originate in Ethiopia is another factor. Precipitation in Ethiopia is dropping and another smaller source, Lake Victoria, is shrinking. Egypt's long campaign to enforce water rights originating in the 1929 colonial and 1959 bilateral Sudan-Egyptian agreements and never involving or taking into account other riparian states and their water needs has long been a negotiating stumbling block. Ethiopia has signed (w several other riparian states but not Egypt) and its parliament ratified the Common Framework Agreement, under which the states agree not to significantly affect the water security of other Nile states. Egypt has been asking to drop significantly and guarantee current use. Outside mediation may be useful but needs to consider the Nile as a whole, and not simply be about this one dam, as important as it is. Improving the efficiency of water use for agriculture in Egypt and reducing waste is another key.
9
Trump is..."mediating"? Wait. Wut?
12
@Nellie McClung It's been assigned to Jared Kushner, so how could anything go wrong? (/sarc)
3
this among other areas of the world are facing terrible consequences due to climate change. that is the truth. deserts are going to be hotter and drier. other areas will have storms the likes no one has ever seen.
6
If DT played a role in resolving a potential crisis in a part of the world that’s been so neglected, good for him.
It would also be good for his self esteem...
@Timothy
He'll give himself credit regardless of the outcome.
2
Africa has to get its population growth under control. Birth control will be critical to managing their resources and economy, and allowing women more agency. There is not enough potable water in the world for the increases projected.
38
As a proud Ethiopian, the Nile has been westernized and romanticized as if it exclusively belonged to the Egyptians. I am happy to report that is no longer the case.
The blue nile starts in Ethiopia (the Nile flows south to north), so who's to say they don't have a right to build a dam within their own borders? The British? Pffff. Their boundary drawing have left certain global regions a muck since their colonial reign ended - a lá Israel/Palestine and Pakistan/India.
The stakes are high for both nations. This is a regional issue that should be handled by the African Union.However should they fail, the United Nations should be brought into the fold. If diplomacy fails, the situation could turn explosive.
44
The U.S. provides Egypt with $1 billion a year in military aid, a condition of the Camp David Accords. These funds are used by Egypt to purchase Abrams tanks and Apache helicopters. If war between Egypt and Ethiopia does come, which seems likely, many of the weapons used will be U.S.
Another win for the military-industrial complex.
56
@Gimme Shelter You’re right. The defense industry, about the only thing we make here anymore, and Israel are what continual wars in the Middle East are all about.
17
@Katherine Not that I condone the Military Industrial Complex, but I'm pretty sure continual wars in the Middle East have also been about rapidly expanding populations within a context of limited water and arable soil, plus challenging temperature extremes. Religion is thrown into the mix to grease the skids for the weapons purveyors.
17
@Gimme Shelter : The US should suspend the military aid and replace it with humanitarian aid. Egypt need to begin planning for a future where water would be scarce.
13
To some of you (you know who you are):
This is an article about a dam. It is an article about 200 million people. It is an article about their electricity and their water, which (I will guess) you take for granted whenever you flick a switch or open a faucet. And all you can do is make some snarky comment about Trump.
Yes, Trump is a jerk. Thank you for your insight. Now, let us turn away from our own country and our narcissism and direct our attention (even for a brief time) to Ethiopia and Egypt, home of ancient civilizations and one out of every six Africans.
Thank you.
23
@The North
Yes, this was my thought too. And having experience with hydroelectric dams, I understand (for the most part) what both sides are concerned with.
There should be a way for both countries to be happy. The main issue, as explained in the article, is not necessarily the dam itself, but the filling of the reservoir. It's a very large volume to fill, and over the filling period (sounds like Ethiopia wants to do it over a 4-year period, and Egypt wants it done over 12 years), it will reduce the quantity of water entering Egypt. Once filled, then technically the water will be balanced (unless Ethiopia also uses the reservoir for water supply, which is understandable).
Other issue could be the discharge of the dam; instead of a natural 'run-of-river' process, the discharge will be regulated. Without knowing the specifics of the Nile, I don't know if it will be beneficial or not. If it's on-peak during the day (higher than natural flow discharge), and off-peak during evenings (less than natural flow discharge), it can be either bad or beneficial (or no difference if the attenuation evens it out).
In any case, yes I find it frustrating that people focus on the Trump part. And yes, it's easy for us to take for granted water and electricity coming from first world countries.
13
@Shaun
The wikipedia article is worth reading:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam
Also, the sale of hydro-generated electricity to Kenya (and other EA countries eventually) is imminent:
https://allafrica.com/stories/201910010643.html
The income could conceivably go a long way to addressing poverty in the country - unless the population continues to grow at such an alarming rate.
3
@The North
Thanks for the links. Really seems like a great project for the region to be honest. It actually will provide a benefit and extend the life of the dams downstream in Sudan by removing sediment that’s filling in those (big problem for dams). From what I read it sounds like the designers did their due diligence on the dam.
So to bring Trump back into discussion.... he’ll probably side with Egypt, which is unfortunate. If Egypt were to be reasonable I don’t see why they all can’t be happy.
5
Thank you for the informative article. I really enjoyed it. The Nile doesn't belong to anyone and I am sure they can share it peacefully. Rather than arguing about a dam, a man-made atrocity that makes changes to the natural flow created by nature in just a certain way for a reason for thousands of years (Egypt has the Aswan Dam), they should be concerned about climate change and working together to deal with that especially considered the ridiculous population growth of these countries. They can shout and scream and have tantrums all they want but climate change will silence them eventually.
13
@ana "They can shout and scream and have tantrums all they want but climate change will silence them eventually."
That is the truth but nobody is brave enough to face it.
8
Ethiopia has spent 9 years and billions of dollars on a dam that will be useless when the Blue Nile dries up, which it inevitably will. Egypt is probably doomed regardless of what Ethiopia does, since it's completely dependent on water. Africa was the source of the human race largely because it wasn't affected by the ice ages. Now that advantage is becoming the source of its destruction.
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@PJ
I’m usually not one to comment on these boards. But do you have any references to the Blue Nile drying up? That’s the kinds of things professionals look at before building dams.
Nevermind, I did a search (technical published papers). They’re predicting more rain in the Blue Nile River. Took just a few minutes...
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We did not see Trump putting pressure on China to not dam the Mekong, and strangle the riven in Cambodia and Vietnam.
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The main problem is not the dam but the catastrophic and untenable population growth of these 2 countries, otherwise poor as Job: Egypt 100m, +0.5m every year. Ethiopia 100m, +2.6m every year (2018 data). THAT is the 800lb gorilla in the room that both should start looking at. Otherwise, nature will do it for them, and it will not be pretty.
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@Frozy
Developing countries always undergo enormous population growth. It’s normal and isn’t a looming catastrophe unless Ethiopia and Egypt fail to develop further.
The key is economic development, not population control schemes. Trying to stop people from having kids has always ended in atrocity.
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@Frozy
In grade school about 70 years ago we learned that Egypt was called, or referred to, as “The Gift of the Nile.”
This article shows just how correct that sobriquet is. Without the water from the Nile, Egypt could not survive.
1
@Frozy Development is the best form of birth control. Most of the developed world has fertility rates lower than what is necessary to maintain their populations ~2.1 children per woman. Germany and Japan, for example have fertility rates of ~1.47. If we want to do something about world population growth, then equitable development is the key.
6
Who is mediating?
Trump?
Well, expect another outrageous outcome. As usual.
36
The Nile is a shared resource for both Egypt and Ethiopia. We are all human beings and we love our Egyptian brothers and sisters. The Ethiopian people are empathetic towards the Egyptian farmer whose livelihood depends on the Nile because we have farmers in Ethiopia who cherish the river just as much. Our dam project is not meant to hurt Egyptian water supply and there is research that suggests it might provide Egypt benefits by preventing flooding during the rainy season. As the former project manager for the dam, engineer Simegnew Bekele said, GERD is our way to fight poverty and lift our people from its clutches. The dam is a source of hope, dignity and pride in our country. There is nothing that can be gained from conflict and our countries should work together for a positive solution.
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@YG Tell that to the US. We take so much water out of the Colorado that it no longer flows into Mexico.
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@JS Not quite. The amount of water that crosses the border into Mexico is set by treaty. Then Mexico pulls the remaining water from the river. It no longer flows into the ocean.
3
Bill,
Yes, because historically, your government has always honoured treaties, hasn't it? Just ask the Native Americans.
2
Water wars will be the big challenge of this century.In south Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and China have to deal with Himalayan glaciers retreating), in Africa and in S America we will see squabbles, battles and wars as the rivers dry up.
The bounties of nature are undervalued while the human excesses have gone unpunished for too long. We will unfortunately see a big calamity by mid century.
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Rudran,
You are right. Yet, it will not just happen to countries still currently patronised as developing nations. Water wars will take place in the urban and suburban areas of major so-called developed nations of The West. Probably a lot sooner than most of their inhabitants realise.
Why is trump mediating?He has proved himself the worst deal maker ever, except when it benefits him.So how much will this side hustle net him??
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President Trump is mediating? LOL. Which side will offer the larger bribe is the question. Along with "How will the money be laundered?" Buying one of Trump's condos for 10X what he paid for it 5 years ago, perhaps? Taking a permanent suite at a Trump property? A dozen expensive golf memberships? Maybe Deutsche bank can set it up. Since they've all been closed down a large donation to one of Trump's fraudulent "charities" is no longer a viable option.
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@Wade Nelson Even aside from the graft it is impossible to imagine Trump actually "negotiating" anything. Either he comes in with a favorite side and tries to bully the other side into "agreement" (being forced to accept it), or he has not interest in anything - he can't concentrate on anything that requires details.
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@Wade Nelson If you want to discuss Bribery in the matter of Egypt v adversaries, let us Talk about President Morsi and the bribes he received in order to (1) turn a blind eye to the construction of the Ethiopian Dam, and to (2)expand the size of Gaza in Sinai. All documented and recorded by the Egyptian military intelligence (Yes they did not like him that is why they deposed him, and put their leader, SiSi).
What was the bribe. The Presidency of Egypt delivered by the meddling of the US state department in Egyptian elections.
It is true... What goes around comes around!
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@Wade Nelson - Ethiopia and Egypt have long histories of terrible corruption and oppression. Religious tribalism is rampant. Adding another corrupt negotiator, namely Donald Trump, does not bode well for the future. Dictators and garden-variety variety human stupidity have created most of the world's problems.
3
With President Trump taking a role in the negotiation of an international dispute what could possibly go wrong. I am sure he has the PERFect skills for riding he gap between the Egyptians and he Ethiopians.
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@nevit2644 fixing typos...
perfect skills for bridging the gap......
1
Insane, unsustainable population growth will inevitably lead to catastrophe. Trump's attempts to ban abortion, contraception and any other means of birth control will lead to dreadful misery. Africans, destroying their forests because of their own population explosion will lead to destructive climate change. Last year, the USA, according to what I read in the Times, actually reduced CO2 emissions by 1.7%. The USA produces far less atmospheric carbon than China. Trashing our economy by using expensive "Green energy" and buying gas from. Russia and using "Biofuels" produced from palm oil in Indonesia (Destroying rain forests in the process) actually add to CO2 emissions. Nuclear power, especially using Thorium is a short term solution until fusion is perfected.
15
Increasing population combined with global warming is providing all sorts of challenges with regards to adequate water for human needs. Unfortunately, having Donald J. Trump blundering in, desperately hoping he can earn a Nobel Peace Prize, is going to do more harm than good.
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It is our right to use ABAY.No one can stop us until they finish us from the Earth.But we also know that the life of all Egyptians is important as the life of any human being.
We Ethiopians know that God created the earth for all of us but when it come to our sovereignity, we have shown to the world that no one can stop us.
Again we love Egypt and Egyptians and we need a win _win.This conflict should not be a diplomatic resolve but should be a scientific and traditional blend.
9
I lived in Egypt for five years in the 80's. There were few things that the Egyptians did well. The one phenomenally good practice was garbage collection, carried out by the Copts with their oxen drawn wagons (usually with a son onboard). They (called Zabaleen) would arrive at your door, even if it was on the twelfth floor, pick up your refuse, say thank you - "shukraan, mister"- and disappear until the next day.
They also raised pigs in the area they inhabited in the south of Cairo, and the same refuse collector sold pork products, the eating of which was not against their Christian religion. They fed the pigs the edible parts of the refuse they collected, and recycled the rest, enabling them to live decent lives.
As was often the case, this successful operation was stopped by Mubarak in 2004, when swine flu broke out in Asia. About 300,000 pigs were slaughtered even though there was no occurrence of the disease in Egypt.
Multinational firms were put in charge of refuse collection, and the ox drawn carts were replaced by motorized vehicles, usually the Italian Piaggio Ape. The thousands of zabaleen were put out of work.
The new procedure failed, and the government admitted that it had made a mistake; rescinded its order, and thus the zabaleen were allowed to re-establish their hundreds of years practice of garbage collection.
I haven't been back to Egypt recently, so I don't know if the oxen have been re-introduced; I suspect not, anyway this is one good memory I have!
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President Trump is mediating? Well this is going to be a disaster for all involved!
18
Trump is mediating? This is fine.
4
Why on earth would Ethiopia be building a hydro-electric plant rather than investing in wind and solar? I'm sure the World Bank has been behind this; and that some big multi-national corporations are making huge profits. The planet is doomed.
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@lzolatrov
Because they have a lot of water available and not a lot of wind and sun?
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@lzolatrov
Because hydropower is much, much, much more practical for a country like Ethiopia than wind and solar. Wind and solar plants would be much more expensive per kilowatt, would require more technical expertise, and be far less reliable. Ethiopia can’t afford any of these things.
One of the most toxic things in modern discourse, especially online, is the assumption that everything is a conspiracy. Ethiopia wasn’t duped by evil global corporations, it’s building this dam because it’s the most practical solution.
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@Ted No because Ethiopia wants to have political leverage and control Egypt through the nile. Seriously, anyone with half a brain can figure that out.
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Tried to blame this on President Trump but just couldn't quite get there.
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@JND Don't worry. When 2 new Trump hotels get built, one in Cairo, the other in Addis Ababa, you'll be able to make the connection.
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An increase of one million people every six months in Egypt, and not a mention of population control being part of the solution.
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@Nana
“Population control” is either ineffective or imposes unacceptable humanitarian costs. Neither Egypt nor Ethiopia will impose a one child policy or mass sterilization for these reasons. Economic development is the only universally consistent and humane way to slow birth rates.
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@Joseph
If "Population control" is so bad, then why is much of Europe below replacement rates with no coercion? Without immigration, the US is also at or near breakeven.
As Iran teaches, all it takes is education and available jobs for women, and available birth control. (In Iran, one of the duties of the clergy is to educate newlyweds on these things--including limiting the number of children and safe, effective means to do so.)
Your premise that "'Population control' is either ineffective or imposes unacceptable humanitarian costs" is proven false by the lived experience of over 1 billion people. (over 2 billion if you count China, which recently went from coercive population control to non-coercive population control without a spike in birth rate.)
20
Educate the women of Egypt and maybe they will stop having so many kids. Then the ones that they do have, will find a brighter future. Keeping with the traditions of the past will lead to famine.
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@Will Hogan
You think the women of Egypt have any say in how many children they have, however educated they are?
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@Will Hogan putting birth control in the drinking water is the only thing that will stop the epidemic , I seriously doubt the women have much of a choice.
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@PJ yes! You think husbands know everything?
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It must be remembered that Ethiopia has full right in using its god given resources .I have been in Cairo four times and i have never seen any interruption of either tap water or electricity during my stay.But this is common phenomenon in Ethiopia while it is owning the resource .so the Egyptians must live with fact on the ground and strike the fine balance in agreeing with Ethiopia in how to use this valuable resource and restrain from sponsoring chaos inside our country.
Bekalu Asmare/FBM
13
WWIII will be waged over water. And remember Ethiopia - Mr. Trump cannot be trusted!
13
In grade school about 70 years ago we learned that Egypt was called, or referred to, as “The Gift of the Nile.”
This article shows just how correct that sobriquet is. Without the water from the Nile, Egypt could not survive.
3
DJT "mediating"... that'll end well. NOT!
12
The Aswan High Dam built nearly 50 years ago by Egypt with the USSR's help was its own ecological disaster. The new dam's impact will be on river flow as water is diverted but will not have the same kinds of fundamental change on the Nile delta created by the 1970 Dam.
5
Overpopulation is the root cause of this, and most of our problems (climate change, pollution, water shortages, terrorism, illegal immigration...).
One of these days we'll deal with it, and start limiting our reproduction.
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@Peter Rasmussen Nature will control the population of the world for us through climate change.
18
@Peter Rasmussen The best and perhaps only effective way was through force as the Chinese did with their one child policy.
7
@Peter Rasmussen
Limiting population growth is a matter of educating woman and providing safe and effective contraceptive birth control. It is already working for over 2 billion of the world's population non-coercively (note China's change in policy a few years ago.)
The real problem is that the carrying capacity of our planet will diminish rapidly. Our species is already using most of the arable land. With or without the dam, Egypt will likely lose most of the land irrigated by the Nile because of Climate Change.
Burning fossil fuels is THE driver for Climate Change. It is already starting its relentless attack on viable habitats for humans and the food and water they need. Had we begun transitioning from fossil fuel consumption in about 1980 when it was already blatantly obvious, by now, we would have about the same amount of energy, and significantly more arable land. By running our global economy exclusively to benefit the producers of fossil fuels, we have put well over 50% of the land we now occupy at risk within the next 80 years, with more to follow.
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surely, in a population of 80 million, Egypt needs to stop having a million new births every six months.
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@East Coast Egypt's population officially surpassed 100million this February.
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Even though Ethiopians may be feeling good with the $4 billion dollar investment. It surely must be fostering trickle down benefits in the short run. Large dams in the long run have never been economically sound investment, and they are not even counting the ecological damage.
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Well, I truly believe these circumstances are the new normal around the globe. The continuous struggle for the necessities of human life will be impacted by the scarcity of water and the resultant impact on food sources. Populations will be displaced and immigration in pursuit of these necessities will spur conflicts.
Unless the global world powers can collaborate with a strategy to deal constructively with these problems then these conflicts will consume us all.
If the United States continues to withdraw from the world stage as a leader in conflict resolution it will be seriously impacted by the fallout.
It is time for us all to demand that our government explain the strategy that is being put forth to manage this existential dilemma.
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@Harry Sullivan Wasn’t this article about the US trying it’s hand at dispute resolution?
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@Harry Sullivan And how are we supposed to stop people from having children they can’t care for, open our borders completely and finish off our own nation. Please, we may be our brothers keeper, but it’s gone on long enough they want to make a mess of their own countries, sorry, but keep them out of ours, it pains me to think this way but having been an ultra liberal for seventy plus years seems to have been a big mistake on my part, perhaps isolationism would have been the better choice, it certainly seems that way in the mess that is now California with Florida not far behind.
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@Katherine It is sad that you have come to this conclusion. I hope your ancestors were met with more generous attitudes when they came to the US. And if they weren’t (not unlikely), did they think, “Gee, I hope my grandchildren become like that and refuse people like me”?
3