Tariff man's 'one-tool-fixes-all' economic plan has not helped the Midwest as he promised. Tariffs have actually raised the cost of some raw materials (e.g., steel) that are used in manufacturing. The Trump/GOP Tax Cut has not resulted in any significant corporate investment in capital improvements and/or employee training that would lead to more manufacturing jobs. Trump/GOP's total failure to address healthcare costs is a big reason that companies cannot afford to add employees - their health insurance costs grow faster then the company's sales do. If you live on wages (paycheck) and not stock dividends/interest - Trump is not your friend.
5
Great to see so much detail and numbers. However, can the same rigor be applied to the proposals of the candidates? This article is about campaign strategy against Trump. What about help figuring who to for FOR?
2
Job numbers don't tell much without looking at salaries and benefits.
7
Sorry to bring a spoiler to the party but campaigns do not hinge on facts. Never have and never will. Politics is an emotion driven enterprise and it is fuelled by advertising. Most Americans can rattle off lots of details about the players of football but it is extremely rare to find someone who has ever read an article about foreign policy or economics. People who elected Trump will have to admit that they signed up with a bad team in order to not vote for him in the next election and Americans are unlikely to change teams because it would be the equivalent of opposing their local football team. Sticking to the facts is the surest way to lose an election.
1
Republicans decades ago made an effort to transform their voter base into an ideologically driven one as opposed to a base that used economic issues to decide who to vote for.
That's why many of the poorest counties in this nation are die-hard Republican super-majority counties.
For that reason focusing on the economic issues to try and glean some sense of whether or not they will vote for him in 2020 is off base.
He may have failed on the economic front for many of his new voters, but he has succeeded by any measure meeting their ideological desires.
The question will be how committed they became to their ideology once Trump started to promote it. Those he won over based on ideology most will likely completely ignore the damage he is doing to them economically and eagerly buy into the lie that it's Democratic sabotage that's making them suffer.
2
It's only a "warning sign" if the candidate facing Trump in the general is regarded by down-home Midwesterner types of all races, ages & classes as a genuine person with a vision that isn't going to be tweaked to death to satisfy donors and career technocrats. GO SANDERS!
2
I want Trump to lose in 2020 as much as any decent Democrat, but these articles are contributing to an environment similar to 2016 when so many people were convinced that he was going to lose.
A net increase in jobs is a 'warning' sign? Really? Does this fall in line with your analysis of Clinton's certain victory in 2016 or Johnson's unlikely majority win...last week?
Up your game.
5
Good to see the new NYT is still in the business of publishing fake news.
Fact - this is garbage data. In Macomb County, MI both Warren Truck Assembly, Warren Stamping, and Sterling Heights Assembly Plant have added at least five thousand DIRECT (not contract) union employment jobs due to the success of the Ram 1500 (DT), and continuing production of the prior generation Ram 1500 (DS) since 2016.
FCA is adding an additional 3500 jobs in the first new assembly plant (Mack Assembly) in Detroit in thirty years for the next generation seven passenger Grand Cherokee, and additional jobs for the for the next Generation five passenger Grand Cherokee.
Plus the additional renovations of WTAP for Wagoneer/Grand Wagoneer production in 2021, which will the cherry on top.
Looking forward to a Trump reelection!
2
What do they say?
Ah, yes, something like "hoist with his own petard" for the "tariff man"?
Trump has run out of of tricks and bully tactics to pump breath into a fading economy. This article only deals with industrial production in the midwest, a key indicator to be sure. But if one looks seriously at the economy the warning signs are all around. The very low unemployment rate is not a sign of growing prosperity, the big majority of new jobs are in low wage no-benefits employment. Durable good orders like autos keep declining, although existing consumer debt is skyrocketing, indicating that many people are borrowing money just to keep food on the table and a roof over their heads. How can this end in any other way than a crashing economy? Bye Bye Trump.
3
Why does everybody below keep talking like it's the people's choice?
Trump DID NOT win the last election, significantly, even though he was running against the Wicked Witch of the West!
Let's stop pretending this is a democracy and figure out which way the vested interests are trending.
Yes, say your prayers every night and vote in every election. And see how much further that gets you.
4
When I look at the map I see every state with the exception of Alaska experiencing overall job growth...if Obama had posted those numbers the Times would have been singing his praises
1
This is not a problem for Trump at all, because Midwestern states don't have a lot of population growth. If you look at where a lot of the job growth is happening, it's in states with a lot of population growth.
It is logical to link the damages sustained in agriculture and manufacturing in these swing states to softened support for the administration responsible for these disastrous trade policies.
But no: the polling I've seen in these regions show inexplicably steady enthusiasm to re-elect the president. This is because these people practice identity politics. Despite their economic losses, these swing staters prioritize their patriarchal, (mostly white) racial and religious identities above all other considerations.
1
It’s interesting that most of the conservative comments are trying convince everyone that they’re right and everyone else is wrong!
Few statements just stating their opinion!
1
Minnesota is not a swing state and never will be, so stop throwing it in. Minnesota has some rare and unique features that separates it from the pack. Minnesota didn’t even vote for Reagan so it’s been a long time!
1
The key to transforming our economy into one that fully produces efficiency is to embrace innovating and inventing technologically advanced "machine" automations driven by intelligent operational computerization developed by both established corporations and viable start-ups, as well as academia. The approach would need to ensure that the market would become more competitive as established corporations and new corporations with viable capital formation projects would have a source of raising monies representing the true asset value of the projects and not have their profit subject to corporate taxation as long as the full profits are paid out to their owners. Thus, the new money creation would be directly tied to the asset value of growth projects, and not inflationary.
This is a big vision for our country. Americans have to start thinking about the impact of a future in which non-human "things" born of technological innovation and invention will play the dominant role in manufacturing and service providing, and not require masses of human labor.
The choice is either OWN the Future or BE OWNED by an oligarchy of capital asset owners who will control government and the fate of Americans who become jobless and dependent for their economic well-being on the State and whatever elites control the coercive powers of government, using job dependency, the police, courts of law, prisons, the tax system and so on as their means to control.
1
Will these facts matter when Fox and the Liar-in-Chief tell them that "alternative facts" prove that everything is great?
5
There are no warnings for Trump in the midwest only the imagination and biased interpretation of Casselman and Karl Russell. All over the country right now practically everyone who wants to work has a job. The swing states of Minn., Wis, MIch., Iowa and OH will be still go for Trump simply because the Democrats have wasted time and treasure on baseless and useless impeachment instead of doing the people's work.
Also with the exception of NY and Mass, Trump will do just fine in the rest of the states and by 2020, Californians will get fed up with Schiiff, Pelosi and Maxine that they will either leave the state or vote against the Democrats. The problem of homeless has become so severe in The cities in California that the Democrats and their identity politics will fall flat.
1
Here's a stat to digest in Trump's "booming economy" and hiring paradise:" Some 44 percent of US jobs pay less than $18,000 a year. So yes, you can choose your job, but then for 44 of every 100 employed, it may have to be a choice between food and rent.
7
"The unemployment rate is hovering around 4 percent in much of the region and is even lower in some states."
What should be discussed is how many of those employed are in a living wage job? Just because unemployment is low, hardly means you can raise a family on that wage or buy them groceries without worry. This is why we have working homeless in America. Very few living wage jobs to be found.
4
Good. Better for these people to come to their senses earlier than wait for total collapse before they capitulate. The longer they endure Trump policies, the worse they will be in the next recession. SAD!!
6
the farmers, especially the small business and farm people, are among my favorite groups. it is just relentless, focused, hard work. rising before full day to washup cows and get them milked, or milking them by hand. feeding chickens and pigs. stacking hay. therefore, when I read that at least two men committed suicide due to drought/rain/heat/tariffs, overwhelming debt, I felt sick. there is a great cloud of wrong-ness over this country. let us repair it so the good of all.
2
You might of added that GM & Ford eliminated over 20,000 jobs in the past year and each has lost $1B annually from their bottom line thanks to Tariffs. GM also closed three factories. The GM strike was just a speed bump, but closing those factories and the tariff costs are lasting. Another point to make is the reduction in capital spending in the manufacturing sector, much as a result of economic instability from the White House and its policies. This is the real trickle down affecting all the suppliers and communities these companies reside for years to come. There have been no policies from the White House that have contributed to the creation of new jobs in manufacturing and have destroyed foreign markets that took 50 plus years to develop.
5
Good analysis. Need to see the data next summer & then correlate to prior 3 elections, that will indicate to a degree the influence. I happen to believe based on experience that there are other factors at work with Trump and his base, namely racism.
2
I don’t know. The unemployment rate in Marathon County WI is 2.5%. Employers aren’t looking to expand. They are trying to find workers! Some other counties are 2.3%.
Sorry, when I tally the flipped counties that lost jobs versus those that gained jobs, I come up with about 32 that lost jobs, and 34 that gained. Seems pretty evenly spread to me. Certainly at odd with the contention made that "Most of them..." have lost manufacturing jobs.
2
I'm afraid I can't understand the logic behind farmer support of Trump's tariff policies when it's generally accepted that they have already negatively impacted their markets for years to come, even if entirely lifted today.
4
His supporters can't care less regarding unemployment, because they not even worry about looking for a job. What am I talking about? They can't even read, and the few ones that can only feed from Fox N.
The only ones that really care are those that are counted two or three times, as those are how many jobs you have to hold to make ends meet. In order to get a close to real unemployment rate, you need to divide the total in half or a third. The economy is not great as it has been pandered in the news outlets, for crying out loud! Good grief!
1
I'll be Warren has a plan for this.
Excluding Iowa from this analysis is disappointing. We're a Midwestern swing state too, and only Wisconsin and Ohio are worse off when it comes to job growth. Trump's trade war has also been devastating to farmers here.
2
And here's the worst part: A genuine end to The Trade War won't mean a guaranteed turnaround for farm prices, the key to improved economic conditions in Rural America. It took decades to develop the international markets that helped U.S. farmers feed the world and benefit from steady -- and reliable -- income from exports. Now we are a suspect, highly unpredictable trading partner in the world marketplace -- exactly the reputation we worked so hard to avoid. Why will people want to buy our grain if they have reliable sellers eager to take our place? People in the U.S. are losing their farms. And when the banks own all that farmland, forget about concerns focused on crop prices. Then it will be soaring food prices Americans can expect when they need to feed their families. Those of you who support Madman Trump -- look what you've done.
5
The national map shows manufacturing jobs growing in Florida. Among other things, Melbourne has a bit of a space boom.
I guess Trump will win the state fairly easily next year, no matter that Florida is extremely dependent on the Affordable Care Act for health insurance.
1
GDP is largely driven by population.
Population is stable to lower in the states in question. As such, increases in GDP in these states mean more than similar or even higher growth in states that are gaining population.
The use of GDP as a measure is often misleading. We need to gradually move to GDP Per Capita as the definitive measure of economic well-being.
2
The swing states as the heart of the rust belt, high drug addiction rates, reduced life span, ravaged trade union strength may begin to realize that Trumps bombast will only make their lives worse as they try to reinvent the 1950’s. It’s past time for these areas to push hard for infrastructure and employment programs that Trump and the Russian influenced Republican Party will never give them. Ever. The Democrats are now more alert to these opportunities and must lay out their plans to address this fifty year old decay despite the daydreams of the past good times.
5
Will the cult care about the economic reality? Will the date be enough to undermine the intense and strategic propaganda intended to continue to divide and oppress the American public? I can't believe how crazy I sound writing that, but we are all being bamboozled by GOP and the national political machine.
3
Just like the Bush/Clinton transition, and the Bush/Obama transition, America will need yet another Democrat president to clean up the economic ruins created by the Trump Party presidency.
3
Nice try in developing talking points for the NYT's lord and master -- the Democratic Party. Only the leftist-biased NYT would publish a graphic showing so many U.S. states with percentage job gains under Trump and conclude it's actually a bad thing. Plus, making the first phase trade deal with China, which has agreed to buy billions in American farm and other exports, sound like it won't matter for the Midwest and "battleground" states by election time. This paper's intellectual credibility continues to erode.
I think it is time that the Democrats start running on facts like these - instead of jumping on every new racial slur or whatsoever coming via twitter out of the White House. The current economy is great - for everyone who already is a member of the “owner’s class” but it is a road to nowhere for everyone else. The fundamental problems of the the newest industrial evolution - automation and the loss of jobs in manufacturing in the near future- are not at all addressed by Mr.Trump and his team and you do not have to be psychic to predict that the downwards trend for the MidWest will accelerate instead of being turned around.
4
Over 100 million people didn't vote in 2016. If the Democratic party "selects" a status quo candidate then the economy won't make a difference as it is now. If a change candidate, one that speaks to working-class and middle-class citizens then just 1% of those inspired to vote would be a million more votes for the Democratic candidate and it could be much more. In a state like Wisconsin where only a few votes per district made the difference that will change the result. People are tired of lies and "Republican-lite".
3
@SamNYC Sanders would bring in voters not seen. He would drive off other voters. Biden would bring in seen voters, not unseen voters. Iffy at best.
Another article that tries to keep hope alive for Democrats. Logic alone will not dethrone Trump. Democrats need to stop intellectualizing every detail and focus on finding a leader that is appealing to a large swath of the population. A young, athletic candidate who is confident and successful would be a threat to a bald, overweight old man.
5
@Nick R
And???
Are your running? Are you campaigning for someone who is running?
Or is this just "another comment that tries to keep hope alive for Democrats"?
1
Business for me was going great and thus I was thinking about upgrading to driving a Tesla. But then Trump slapped 25% and now maybe 100% tariffs on my products. So now, no Tesla - and no job security - and maybe..... bankruptcy? Apparently the tariffs are a favor for an early campaign donor - selling us out for his rich buddies - sounds like Russia.
138
@Mary
You'll probably be thrilled to learn that the tariffs are going to be substantially reduced together with substantial commitments by China to increase its imports of American products. No sell out. Just driving a hard bargain on our collective behalf. What a guy!
3
@Mary from Connecticut, the deep blue state will not go for Trump any way. Don't expect any one to shed a tear because you will not be driving a Tesla. I love driving my fuel efficient low carbon emission small car that takes me around reliably that I am not sulking that I am not driving a fancy car.
3
@Bob Huh, more like a collective capitulation - not only did Trump's actions cause the problem, his solution has made everything worse.
Obama's solution was much better.
I thought Republicans were the ones mistrusting government and Democrats were the ones mistrusting corporations. It seems the roles have sort of reversed.
20
The problem with this analysis is that it presumes that those in the slower growing states and counties are aware of that fact. But as your data shows, virtually every state has had an increase in total employment, even if some have grown faster than others.
Many people live in virtual silos when it comes to comparing localized performance versus the "whole".
Simply put, for a variety of factors -- employment levels during the past three years (i.e. the period of time of the Trump administration) are generally higher across the board. And while some sectors and sections may not have benefited as much as others -- this is not readily evident to most folk on a day-to-day basis.
As a loyal Democrat I cannot delude myself with data such as these to think that Trump is in electoral trouble. Simply put -- if "it's the economy, stupid" then Trump stands a very good chance of being re-elected even if some pro-Trump areas are doing less well than other "bluer" locals.
And certainly, with the Democrats likely swinging to the far left they now stand little chance of reversing this likelihood.
I think this is what the data here is saying more than anything else.
1
As usual, Trump is his own worst enemy. Perfect set up for the Democratic candidate who incessantly beats the drum for better paying jobs, not government programs. It's always the economy, stupid.
Hey, Trump supporters in the midwest: why put up with his corruption, cyber-bullying, racism, misogyny, buffoonery on the world stage and overall ineptitude if he also wrecks your financial stability through ill-advised tariffs? What's left to support?
5
Do these data point really matter?
Even if unemployment was 25% across the Trump-cult states, he's say it was .00001%, Fox would amplify, and the cult would nod in passive agreement.
Data or the truth doesn't matter when you belong to his cult.
2
A Midwestern voter sees these statistics, considers that industrial output is down a little in his state and wonders if he should consider another candidate.
Then, from the tv, he hears Judge Jeanine scream that 'shifty Schiff and Pocohontas hate America!'
"What was I thinking?!" he says to himself. "MAGA!"
3
Trump and the GOP poured $1 Trillion plus into a BOOM economy. And these paltry gains are what they have to show for it.
Now do the map of increases to Trump's Mafia-garch bank accounts, because that's where our tax dollars went.
4
I think the numbers are interesting as a hint about the future, but I don't see them moving any votes. Could a democratic president have done better? -- I would not think so.
If you really want to know if Trump has made a difference or not, I'm afraid the Brits have collected the better statistics https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45827430
1
Hence the China deal where The Chinese Communist Party agrees to buy farm goods from America. He is the state after all so it is in the national interest.
Re election baby!
the perception here in wisconsin is that things are going great. Local media just falls in line and lies....Actually local media has become a joke. Reality has no meaning
Horrible, misleading graphics. Why are positive job numbers dark red, and job losses yellow? It gives the impression that job numbers are tanking but every state but Alaska is reporting positive numbers.
1
None of these numbers mean anything.
Being blunt - ALL government statistics are useless. They have been manipulated since the late 1970's to make things look better than they are.
REAL unemployment has been above 20% since 2000. Labor force participation has reached new lows. Most of the 'newly created' jobs are low paying and dead end. We've been in the equivalent of the Great Depression foo a decade - hidden by the government safety net. But we're now cutting food stamps?!? Food pantries can't meet demand here in the suburbs.
You've had retail companies going bankrupt. Trucking companies are going belly up - leaving drivers stranded. Banks are laying off people by the thousands - JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of NY recently cut staff. They're moving whole departments to India.
5
isn't an increase in jobs good?
It’s great that the NYT is publicizing this. Let’s hope those farmers and workers whose manufacturing jobs didn’t come back or were killed off by Trump’s trade wars in WI, PA, MN, MI and OH understand what’s happening to them and why.
3
Some of these jobs are essentially crumbs being tossed to hungry masses. Gig economy, low paying service sector, irregular schedules, no benefits. This is nothing to crow about. If Amazon added good-paying jobs in Seattle, it won't be ones that most Americans qualify for. This is about more than who is president.
1
Midwestern swing states are losing jobs and people. Younger, more liberal, working-age people are fleeing states like Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin—there's jobs in Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland and Houston. So who's left? Parents and grandparents. So, in these critical swing states, where elections are often decided by 1 or 2%, it's becoming Trump country not just because of who's voting, but also because of who left.
1
At the end of the day what matters are the food on the table, safety, future of the children and clean environment. The conservatives do not truly represent any of these. We all know that so called hard core democrats and republicans, will never change their voting habits. BUT the republican voters are not as gullible in these states as Trump thinks, he should ( the republicans) should think twice before counting them in.
1
When farmers don't make money, they don't buy new equipment. No new tractors, combines, pickup trucks. No new barns or other outbuildings. What does that do for manufacturing when the people who buy their goods can't afford them? It's not just that steel barns aren't being sold, the people who construct barns aren't being hired.
Installing solar panels was one of the fastest growing jobs in the country, until Trump put tariffs on solar panels making them cost more. Now the installers are out of work.
Trump hasn't realized his trade war is like a pin ball machine. You pull the handle straight, but the ball shoots around and hits everything.
3
I'm in one of those "swing" counties, forever embarrassed about people here switching from Obama to Trump. In any case, it's good to have data that reflect reality, meaning that "jobs" should usually be in quotes these days. Many employed people continue to struggle nevertheless, rendering quality of life a major issue. Other perceptive people commenting here similarly to my impression, especially about how this Potemkin Village of a "booming" economy will be displayed for all its worthlessness by Trump & Co. Begone with his con!
210
@Richard Hahn See above. People are protecting a culture and past that can never be repeated. Whole renewal or abandonment of these areas are the only solutions. These areas have been in Republican hands while the nostalgia for the past and lies beyond measure cemented in place by talk radio and the Unamerican Fox News by American hating Rupert Murdoch.
22
Right now in many places of the USA there is development going on everywhere.
New shopping centers, homes, schools, roads , and office buildings.
Employers can't find help.
I suggest those with an open mind use your own senses to make a determination of the economy.
Of course there are many here that would love to see a recession if if it is painful for millions of Americans...or citizens of the world ( we guide the globe in all matters ).
Look at the stock market and industries that service growth. Most stocks are way up.
Look at the unemployment rates.
Its so obvious to anyone with an open mind...things are Great.
Do not rely on biased opinions of websites.
We all know how much bias plays a role now.
Oh.,,,Trump Hatred,,you all know what I mean.
1
@Joe Paper Employers can't find help because people don't want the pay rates they're offering. The most comprehensive unemployment rate measurement, including those who are underemployed for economic reasons and not by choice, was at 6.5% in November. There's a large number of the employed who hold down multiple part-time jobs they don't want. There are even more people out there who aren't looking for work because pay rates and employment terms are garbage. The fact wage growth isn't skyrocketing is because the unemployment rate numbers being used are inaccurate to the actual economic conditions on the ground, Wage growth since Trump took office is stubbornly stuck between 3 and 4 percent, reflective of the 20-year malaise we hit after the late-90s. Household debt as a result is at an all-time high. That's not unique to Trump. Obama and Bush both had the same problem. It's reflective of structural problems all 3 of these presidents have failed to address.
The same problems which plagued the Obama administration are plaguing the Trump administration.
2
@Joe Paper Construction jobs traditionally don't provide health insurance, even though they are dangerous jobs. If there is a choice of jobs, who would pick a dangerous job that provides no health insurance? It's the builders' fault they can't find workers. All the construction jobs my husband ever had didn't even pay into his social security or Medicare taxes. Who wants jobs that don't treat the workers right?
2
The most significant finding here is that struggling states "depend heavily on manufacturing and agriculture, two sectors that have been hit especially hard by Mr. Trump’s trade war." Tariffs, paid by Americans and not the Chinese as Trump continues to claim, have driven up prices for imported parts and materials and pushed down demand for American goods abroad. And Chinese retaliation for the tariffs has lost Midwestern farmers their biggest market for agricultural exports. Yet many Midwesterners live in the same unreality bubble spun by Trump and Fox News, everything's great as long as Mr. Tariff Man is in charge. Forget the deficit, forget the Wall, coal mines keep closing but they will reopen, we'll show those Chinese and who needs 5G?
127
This article is misleading, at least in respect to MN. The unemployment rate here has consistently been below the national average and currently sits at about 3.2%. One of the reasons for slower job growth is employers not being able to find enough workers. Also, there wasn't as big a slump here to come out of, unlike the more manufacturing heavy states. Yes the farmers have taken a hit but in the Twin Cities metro the economy is booming.
6
@Garfunkle
It is likely that there are relative islands of growth in jobs esp. in more urban areas within some red states-- which may be occurring even as manufacturing and agriculture decline.
Your point is only meaningful there is data supporting those industries as struggling to find employees vs. more urban business and job growth. It is hard to imagine difficulty finding workers for jobs occurring if those industries are declining economically overall.
6
@Garfunkle
That doesn't sound quite right. Massachusetts is in a similar situation to Minnesota -- booming core metro area, consistently below average unemployment -- and yet it's managed better than 3% job growth. That suggests less exposure to manufacturing and agribusiness -- ie, less exposure to Trump's trade policies -- is a net plus for a state. And the opposite is a negative.
5
@Jasper
Yes, MN has more agribusiness but it's harder to get people from non-midwestern states to move here which makes it harder to grow the population and stagnates job growth.
6
The trade war is killing manufacturing in the upper midwest. Trump is touting his wonderful new trade pact with China, but the tariffs on $350 billion worth of industrial goods is still in effect. These goods are what US manufacturing needs in order to compete in the global marketplace. Their overseas competitors have access to the same goods at much lower prices, giving them a huge competitive advantage. US electronics is being particularly hard hit.
Farming drives a lot of manufacturing and the farmers have been decimated. Trump's trade war fell upon them and he has bailed them out with a soviet style program to plant crops they can't sell. A recent news report stated that it will take until 2026 for US soybean production to recover. What happens to the farmers now that the bailouts will stop with the new Chinese agreement? That is, if the Chinese really buys the crops. They are currently buying from Brazil. What if Brazil makes them a better deal?
These are tangible effects of Trump that Trump can't shift the blame on anyone else. Democrats would be wise to overstate that fact. Trump created a disease and then claims to be a hero for stopping a few fatalities.
316
@Bruce Rozenblit He can't shift the blame on anyone else? I'm not going for the contrarian viewpoint just for the sake of it when I say, "Where have you been for the last three years?" Blame shifting is all he does. It's incredible.
26
Living in Pennsylvania I can tell you there is a deep concern about the lack of job and wage growth in manufacturing as well as across the board in other sectors. Much of it is directly tied to Trump's actions. His 2016 supporters are growing tired of Trump's daily chaos impacting their lives. His cultural positions don't mean much when you can't feed your family. Trump is in trouble in Pennsylvania.
406
@Randy I have 50+ relatives in PA and get similar feedback from all of them.
126
@Randy Here in the suburbs of Philly, Trump is deeply unpopular, even among lifelong Republicans. When his name comes up in conversation, there's a lot of negative head-shaking. The suburbs tend to be moderate, and the constant chaos in his administration, his actions in regards to Ukraine and his apparent lack of impulse control have worn thin here.
110
@Loyle
Yep. Whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee could do worse than going with the simple slogan: STOP THE CHAOS!
95
I'm pretty sure MN will,like the last two elections. be a blue state. The twin cites area are solidly Democratic, and even bigger out-state towns are trending democratic.
1
This article feels like it's really trying hard to make it look positive for Dems when actually the economy looks pretty good for Trump (even though it's just a continuation of the Obama economic recovery). Low unemployment rates, increases (even if small) in manufacturing..
The faulty assumption in this article is that facts matter. They don’t anymore. Progressives need to learn how to be fact-free like the rest of the world.
2
@Me - Like "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan"? Those facts?
1
One thing we need to mention in addition to the excellent information presented here is that wage growth for the average citizen never has matched the economic growth. Payouts to corporate shareholders, however, did, largely as a result of large companies being able to borrow money at next-to-nothing rates. In other words the rich paid themselves instead of investing more in their workers or new technologies to keep the US competitive and got much, much richer while the rest of us got the same old paycheck we've always gotten. And who do you think is going to suffer first if we go into even a mild recession? It sure won't be the corporate shareholders, I can tell you that. It'll be these exact same people in these swing states, clinging to marginal jobs that barely cover their credit card debts, that's who it'll be.
9
This news article (or is it an opinion piece?) claims to portend bad news for Trump because "key states" have seen slower job growth than bluer states.
Does that matter though?
The voters in these key states aren't comparing their job growth numbers to other states; they're comparing them against what they knew for themselves pre-Trump. And so far, they've seen growth and all indicators point to further growth.
That portends trouble for Democrats, not Trump.
4
@Jason W
Everything is relative. If growth in a region doesn't keep up with national growth, its falling further and further behind. Eventually industry will move, as will people who can get jobs elsewhere. Eventually that region becomes a place for the sick and elderly.
2
Are the states with the highest net gain of employment also the states that would be likely to be experiencing high immigration?
1
Interesting to note all the top ten states with the best employment outlook hale from blue or bluing western states. If you drill down into the specifics of the growing economic sectors, you'll find they're are all centered around liberal urban economic hubs even in traditionally Republican states. Utah, Texas, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and of course: California. Florida is the only exception.
I can tell you with complete confidence Utah didn't make number one because the Republican legislature wants to refuse Medicaid expansion. Our job growth would actually be higher if not for draconian conservative policies. The greater Salt Lake area generates our prosperity. Everyone, including the Republican governor, knows it. You'll find much the same story in Texas and Nevada. Trump and his supporters are a drain on the economy both literally and figuratively.
They want help? Okay. Stop biting the hand that feeds you. Whether they like it or not, most of conservative America is a welfare case. I'm willing to pay more in taxes to help these people but not when they shove generosity back in everyone's face. Pride is a mischief maker who knows no equal. Put it down every once in awhile if only for a moment.
10
@Andy Colorado, where I live, has experienced a lot of growth because of energy development, and because we actually do have a Taxpayer Bill of Rights that keeps taxation reasonable. States line NC have experienced a lot of growth because they've made themselves pro-business too. If your theory were true, we'd see companies moving into CA, not fleeing it.
@Paul W
You're talking to a former economic developer and business analyst. "Pro-Business" does absolutely nothing to promote business investment. What matters is geography, cost, and infrastructure. Energy development would want to operate in Colorado with or with out public incentive. You have gas and you have the labor to staff the operation. That's it.
The math is really simple. California has issues because they have a cost of living problem related to infrastructure and zoning. This means both housing and water. Manufacturing requires water just like agriculture. Again, geography. Why do you think manufacturing is mostly clustered around the Great Lakes?
More business would enter California if the numbers lined up. Taxes have little or nothing to do with it.
1
This map and stats are actually worst as warning signs for Trump as illustrated. In many cases the employment rates increases are the strongest in sectors where Trump is opposing. For transparency purpose, it would be insightful to get the breakdown those % figures with its individual corresponding sectors.
1
@David No, actually the stats are worse for the people they represent...people out of work who can't get jobs.
2
1000s of manufacturing jobs continue to go unfilled due to historically low unemployment. This is no less true in the Midwest than anywhere else. This article is as biased as those claiming that wages have not increased. Every employer knows this to be true: the tight labor pool is driving wages up. They know they can't meet product demand because they are limited on the labor front.
@Edgar tell that the furloughed autoworker in Lansing, MI or the fired one in Youngstown, OH. Your thesis is lacking.
2
Much of the damage to the upper Midwest Manufacturing Belt has resulted from Trump's tariffs on steel, that caused steel to skyrocket, and tariffs on China, which caused farmers to delay equipment purchases.
In 2020, it will be the Energy Belt that will suffer from low oil prices, as four countries, Brazil, Norway, Canada and Guyana bring additional output on line in a global market that is already over-supplied. Fracking is equipment intensive, expensive and requires high oil prices, while many frackers are already financially troubled with too much debt.
So coal, oil and manufacturing, where Trump promised explosive growth, are likely to be flat or down. But that, ironically, might drive older voters to Trump.
It will be up to younger voters to change politics. And 2018 mid terms suggested they might do just that.
9
@Look Ahead
Yes vote someone in so they can drive oil prices up...great strategy.
As a liberal blue collar guy I see a lot of both points of view and I can empathize with Trump voters (sometimes) but it is especially hard to dissuade them when the economy is strong and the Dem's have so little to offer. I also tire of the coastal stereotypes of the midwest and rural America. A lot of support for Trump is a backlash to the disdain many liberals and coastals have towards rural and working class people. Living in a large urban area, it's easy to forget where most of the food and material wealth we enjoy comes from. A lot of people have no clue how hard many of the jobs that produce and deliver those goods are both physically and mentally on a day to day basis. Especially when you get no respect.
11
@Garfunkle
We respect the mid-western work ethic but not people who vote for a grifter and a Putin loyalist.
2
@Garfunkle "...the Dem's have so little to offer. "
Did you really expect the "Dems" to provide jobs for those displaced by a Republican work economy?
Santa doesn't get here till next week !
1
@kenneth
Republican economy? That's giving them too much credit.
I should have said neither party has much to offer. Yes,Trump is an extreme exception and must go but aside from him the parties are only different around the edges. When it comes to the big stuff, they are the same. Both put party over country, both prop up the war machine and both are beholden to Wall Street. Lobbyists rule the day. Nothing changes with meat and potato stuff like the infrastructure we so desperately need. Instead we hear about free college or rounding up illegals. State and local is where stuff gets done. Washington is a tabloid that needs a reboot.
The statement made in this article is that both manufacturing and agriculture are hurting as a consequence of the tariffs. However, all that is presented are charts/data from manufacturing. I would like to see data on how regions dependent on agriculture are being affected.
3
@djembedrummer Paul Krugman had a great thread of tweets re the affects of the tariffs on agriculture this weekend. There are charts. Here's the Thread Reader link: https://t.co/nvWqnhVCsF?amp=1
2
It's probably a dilemma for China. China needs to reduce the stress on trade and jobs as a result of the trade war, but another 4 years of Trump can be very good for China in the long run. Should they ease the brake on boycott of American agriculture products which will help Trump's re-election? Yet Trump is too unpredictable and it might be better to deal with another president. If so, to help the Democrats China should sustain economic pressure on Trump's supporters. What would they do?
1
Using the writer's logic, California, Oregon and California should be in play for Trump, with Nevada being a slam dunk.
2
@Erik No... There's a reason they focused on swing States/counties.
1
You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but not all of the people all of the time. Sounds like the chickens are coming home to roost! Let's hope the voters in those states decide this time to vote in their own economic interests instead of misplaced emotional commitment to a huckster con man who has now proven he does not have their backs.
8
@Joe Actually, Joe, "he" did not prove anything.
How could he? He hasn't even been paying attention.
Why must the media, Wall Street and the president focus solely on the # of jobs and not the WAGES and BENEFITS offered with these jobs??? Wages for middle calls and low education level workers remain relatively stagnant since the 1970's (when adjusted for inflation) It's become incredibly rare for a new hire to get basic benefits such as health insurance and paid vacation days!! The "gig economy" only works for those at the very top.
28
@Celtique Goddess I can't answer for the media But it's certainly beneficial for the president and Wall St to make the public think things are just great. That way nobody will look further.
1
Job growth in Florida is mostly in the retail and hospitality sectors, and those 2 segments are some of the lowest paying jobs that exist. For nearly 10 years Tallahassee Republicans have given big businesses in Florida huge tax cuts, leaving the middle class to sink or swim. Even now Republicans are proposing legislation that will undermine every public union sector job in the state, jobs that for the most part still provide pensions for a decent retirement. Not a wealthy retirement, but not one that needs food stamps to survive. Two term Governor Rick Scott, who held the record for his company being fined for medicare fraud, spent 8 years killing the working class in Florida with cutting spending for public education to allow his "buddies" to take public funds for for-profit charter schools. Now Rick is a US Senator propping up a corrupt presidency.
23
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) issues a monthly index for manufacturing nationally which tracks several key data points correlated with the economic health of this sector. A score of greater than 50.0 indicates that a specific manufacturing component of this index is growing; while a score less than 50.0 indicates that this index component is contracting.
For the month of November 2019, the overall index was at 48.1, a decline of -0.2 from Oct.'s overall score of 48.3. This was the 4th consecutive month that the overall index indicated contracting economic conditions in this sector.
Among the different components of this index for Nov.:
a) Significantly, new orders and employment both declined in Nov., and it was their 4th consecutive monthly declines, too.
b) With the exception of Supplier Deliveries, which rose +2.5 to 52.0 in Nov. from 49.5 in Oct., all the other 9 components of the index had readings below 50.0. These 9 values ranged from a low of 43.0 for the backlog of orders component to a high of 49.1 for the production component.
Overall, the ISM survey results do indicate weakness in the manufacturing sector, consistently over the most recent 4 month period.
[12/16/2019 M 1:17 pm Greenville NC]
7
A mighty try to find something—a blow up of the tiniest negative parameter will do just fine—that politically masks the lowest MW unemployment level in 50 yrs occurring during a global manufacturing slump.
Such scraping the barrel doesn't argue well for the Dems in 2020.
2
@Stanley Jones I lived in Michigan from 2016 to 2019, I can assure you that the 'low unemployment' you reference from Oregon is not translating into growth or prosperity. Head out there for yourself and take a look.
2
Voters don’t vote their pocketbooks.
2
@Brock Oh?
You must be one of the very very gainfully employed.
2
It's very silly to continue to parrot the delusion that these people were voting based on the economy and jobs in 2016 when it's very obvious that they were voting based on racial hate.
13
@SW And let's not forget the part about not voting for a woman.
3
A useful and informative article. Thanks much, NYT.
1
Pump up the hate, get the white folk scared, and they forget about kitchen table issues and vote for Trump. Simple. When things go bad, blame Democrats. Rinse and repeat.
11
@Bailey T. Dog
Or scream Russia/Russia/Russia, Racism/Racism/Racism, Sexism/Sexism/Sexism or evoke short lived politics of envy using 'income inequality' for country and middle class that has the highest (and growing) net disposable income in the world! Emotion burns out and people get tired of the noise.
Like him or not, Trump will win again in 2020 - not because he is universally loved, but because the economy is generating growth in wages and higher paying jobs vs. the stagnation of the prior 20 years. Add in a Democratic party that has veered so far to the left ( Obama is right, people do not want a revolution) and undermined all credibility of itself and supporting media with emotionally driven impeachment mantra ( instead of focusing on the kitchen table issues) and we may even see the Republicans take back the house.
@Hank R I hope you're right about the economy. But, as any economist can tell you, a year is about a century away.
Warning signs?? Looks like a layup for POTUS
3
@Nature First he'd have to make it quickly from one end of the gym floor to the other. I don't think he can do that these days.
NYTs graphics are the very best.
1
Too many Americans are employed in a gig economy during Trump’s presidency ... not exactly job security or livable wages. Trump’s socialist farming jobs are actually giving taxpayer money to big agribusinesses while small farmers are going bankrupt and committing suicides in states like Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. If the economy is doing so great under Trump WHY is the government pumping billions into the economy....our deficit is growing on the backs of our kids. Building infrastructure and investing in research and clean energy will do more for jobs in America than any short-term demagoguery tactics of Trump. Amy Klobacher could run circles around Trump ... just saying.
18
What is the rationale for people who vote against their economic interests? I am reminded of this quote
"Human beings aren’t rational animals; we’re rationalizing animals who want to appear reasonable to ourselves."
—Elliot Aronson
6
@hoffmanje Though it is interesting that many of those who voted for Trump because they want to stop government handouts are now the ones who are happy to take handouts in the form of subsidies and the direct result of China buying agricultural products negotiated by the government!
6
@hoffmanje Some people vote their conscience.
Stop. Just stop with the Trump Warning headlines. Sure this information needs to be reported, but lose any headline that suggests that there is any danger for Trump in anything that happens or that he does.
Maybe you missed the memo NYT'S but Trump could murder someone on the street and his base wouldn't flinch.
Jobs? If they lose them they will no doubt blame liberals.
This is not a Trump problem.
When in comes to his people, really nothing is.
They see a Messiah, this is akin to a religious movement. No amount of reality is going to penetrate and interrupt their adulation.
All this type of headline does is make his base snicker and it irritates the rest of us. We know that even abject poverty will not deter their worship of their red haired god.
So please, just report and leave the sensationalism at the door.
19
@Pamela G. Headline:
"There are economic warning signs for Trump in the Midwest"
What part of that headline strikes you as sensationalism?
1
@Pamela G. It is not his followers that really need to be swayed. It is about the 300,000 people in 5 swing counties (or whatever the exact break down was) that decided the election last time. Many of them voted for Obama before so they seem to be people who can be reached and change their minds.
1
In this country, money matters way more than people and things like honesty, integrity, decency, and morality don't even register on the scale. Be prepared for another 4 years of Trump.
3
@Chris 4 years? Maybe, but then there's the cardiology issue. I do worry about him.
1
What we're seeing is typical of what happens when time catches up to a Carnival Barker.
Trump proclaimed, "It's gonna get better than fantastic!"
In anticipation of which, businesses geared up (that's the initial rise you see, in 2017).
Then, reality took hold, helped along by an incompetent huckster flailing for solutions, too unread to listen to any but other traveling show salesmen (that's a reference to the people he's selected as "economists").
Since then, once people with brains figured out there was nothing behind the curtain but a man shouting, "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain," the curve began to fall.
The curve will keep on falling. There is nothing coming to its rescue but a huckster looking for shills. Not that the shills aren't available (check out the rallies), and not that they care what happens so long as it feels like revenge (check out the way they vote against their own interests). That said, they're suckers.
They have an open disdain for education, display open contempt for facts, are convinced they're working hard when they should be moving to places where work exists, and find ways to convince themselves and the world that they're being forgotten when, in fact (in the eyes of hucksters including Trump), they're nothing more than a swing-voter constituency.
They need to join the planet, but they're not going to do that. It would require engaging their brain - something their leader doesn't do, either.
12
Talk about utter desperation.
Do you think the Democrats will run on this - job growth in MI only grew by X%? Try using that against a 3.5% unemployment rate and a booming stock market.
And also, moderate Midwest Democrats and independents are opposed to Medicare for All, Identity Politics, Class Warfare, and Open Borders.
And they will be against The Green New Deal, once they learn that banning fracking and coal, and stopping all new natural gas plants, will result in skyrocketing gasoline, electric and heating bills.
You need something a lot better than this.
8
@Erik Not really. Looks at what people cited in this time around! Many voted against their own self interest like better healthcare, better consumer protections, better education, better infrastructure, better social net etc.
1
@BK There is zero evidence that President Hillary Clinton would have provided better anything.
@Erik So we should just ignore these "warning signs"?
The Nevada manufacturing jobs increase, on the order of 35 percent, is a big outlier on the fourth chart. Am I right in guessing that it’s mainly due to Tesla’s gigafactory? That was said to bring in about 10,000 jobs, in a state that probably didn’t have a huge manufacturing base to begin with.
2
Well, you just handed trump his playbook on what towns he will hold rallies and lie and up the furor and hate. Actually wish you hadn't been so precise.
On the other hand this is yet another reason I trust NY Times.
5
I agree with a lot of the folks here--these numbers are essentially meaningless. Folks in the Midwest, for the most part, have an entirely different set of values. They don't believe in open borders, sanctuary cities, transgender bathrooms, generous welfare programs, soaking the rich. They believe in God, working hard for a living, and family values.
These folks are not likely to support any sort of progressive agenda--no matter how difficult their finances become. If proof of this is needed--just look at how difficult it's been for some Midwest farmers--yet they stick with Trump through thick and thin. They understand short-term pain for long-term gain. It's the values, stupid.
57
@Jesse The Conservative
You name three "values" I've always associated with Trump: God, working hard, and family values. Sounds like Trump to me, right?
90
@Jesse The Conservative So sorry, but I had an opportunity to observe the "good folks" you inaccurately stereotype in Michigan during a 1-year work assignment in 2018. I think I know a thing or two about the U.S. after having lived in 6 different states (most very conservative). I happened to have been in central MI, a place where it seems they folk can't get over the fact that their children move out as soon as they can; a place where despite all the big talk about their "leader" manufacturing is at a standstill or dead. And, so sorry, but the conservative politics are a blend of grievances and resentments that always point away from themselves and toward all those "liberals" as if they know any. They are willing to take government welfare if it benefits them (think farmers).
I have no doubt that MI will vote for Captain Bone-spur in 2020, but by 2024 I think their god-fearing values won't go far once their lives are far worse than they already are.
68
@Jesse The Conservative
VALUES? Oh dear. I’ll pray for you.
56
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio are likely lost to the Democrats for the foreseeable future since they seem to have moved in an orthogonal direction to the traditional left-right politics of the country. They see a candidate will indulge their racism and xenophobia and will vote along those dimensions now. Ohio voted for Obama twice but went for Trump by 8 points. They have a very conservative state government that is not afraid to pass insane anti-abortion bills. The south has spread to these three states and the Democrats need to look elsewhere.
5
Still rather have Trump in the WH than Hillary Rodham Clinton. Besides the numbers would look a lot worse if she were president sending jobs overseas at a rate that would make your head spin.
@Southern Boy show the Proof jonny reb
2
Ever seen a chart where all the positive numbers are presented as shades of red?
3
@V No. It took me a while to figure out that the darker numbers were good!
We do note a certain hidden glee that Trump states/counties are doing worse. USMCA will change all this. Worth noting that two straight Marquette Law School polls show Wisconsin opposes impeachment 52 to 40%.
2
I believe that job growth in Ohio over the past year hasn't just slowed but reversed, as we have now lost over 10k jobs. Of course the electorate still keeps putting the GOP in office, partly due to extreme gerrymandering, and partly due to stupidity. Of course Ohio republicans are willing to tackle important economic issues, you know, like trying to force physicians to do the impossible task of re-implanting ectopic pregnancies or face murder charges.LOL
11
Democrats should hammer Trump in these states on this data!
The economy is the #4 most important issue with healthcare, Climate change, Immigration 1,2,3...
1
The constant bashing of what is an outstanding national economic performance by the Trump administration reveals the partisanship of The Times. No matter how many charts and graphs The Times trots out on a daily basis, Americans can see through the forest for the trees. Record low unemployment. Record high African-American and Hispanic employment. Welfare and food stamp rolls dropping. Inflation well in check. National energy self sufficiency. GDP growth a solid 2.5-3%. These numbers don't lie, and most Americans know it and see it on a daily basis. The doom and gloom naysayers have no economic arrows in their quiver of Trump hatred.
3
What are the Democrat's going to do to "improve" this bad economy ...lol....any of them would take the numbers during Trump's presidency and run with it. Unfortunately if the D. nominee does beat Trump, it will probably set back dems for a long time, cause I don't see any of them improving what we have now??
1
@wallace It was a Democratic president who set this economy in motion. It nearly crashed under the prior president, a Republican. Why this myth persists that Republicans are good with the economy is beyond me. Our best economies by far have been under Democrats, not to mention the most balanced budgets.
7
I would love to see this same data graphic for Obama's first and second terms.
3
@Bill But that is just it Bill, the contrast would be what people will be voting on - two decades of stagnation under Bush /Obama vs Growth in the past 3 years of jobs ( and not the low paying part time ones generated in the 'Obama Recovery) and middle class wages....combined with the rhetoric of trade/ border/ bringing the troops home ( America First)...and the Democrat party's lurch to the left and coastal elite /tech company base. It does not look good for the Democrats in 2020.
@Bill
There you go: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45827430
1
"It isn’t clear how voters will respond to what has been, so far, a mild economic slowdown."
Really? Cuz this Michigander knows *exactly* who not to vote for come 2020.
A word to the wise NYT readership: please stop stereotyping all the Rust Belt as hosting nothing but Trump supporters. Seriously.
12
The list of Trump's despicable behaviors is long, glaringly obvious, and accordingly well known to every person who voted for him. How likely is it that less than robust growth in manufacturing jobs will change a voter from pulling the lever for Trump again in 2020? The argument in each such voter's head will be something like, 'The Democrat's candidate is a socialist who will certainly destroy America, DJT is at least trying and sometimes you have to hit bottom before things get better', and presto the voter pulls the lever again for DJT.
The point being that anyone who voted for a liar, a racist, a cheat, and a man as mean spirited as Trump, is not likely to change their minds unless there is a full on recession or worse.
8
A little clarification from Idaho. Our new jobs are temporary, low wage, with no benefits, building fancy estate homes for the part-time millionaire Californians and others who occupy us disdainfully like the Normans occupied the Anglo-Saxons. And if one factory opened and created ten jobs, that would "double" our manufacturing base, as we are starting from zero, out of lava rocks and National forests.
6
@vandalfan You are aware of Micron Technology headquartered in Boise - or is north Idaho a separate zone?
1
When did Pennsylvania become a part of the Midwest? The states outside the south without Rocky Mountains, desert or ocean (plus Vermont) are not all Midwest.
4
The more Trump brags about how great the economy and the stock market are doing, the more anger and resentment grows among those who have been left behind.
4
@Nancy You would think so, but I'm not so sure. He still appeals to those same people in a number of ways and they buy his claim that it's immigration policies keeping them from getting jobs. These same people don't read and primarily watch Fox News, so I don't have a lot of faith they'll come around to realizing they largely have Trump to blame.
4
@Nancy Ah, poor souls. How on earth to they live with a 3.5% unemployment level. Sigh.
@Stanley Jones
How can they live with 25% rate on their 401k's....oh the humanity! You do realize even lowly middle/lower class people have 401k's/Pensions...yes...no?
It’s called “confirmation bias”. All of us tend to shop for observations that support our existing beliefs, and ignore information that refutes those beliefs. That’s why farmers and workers in the Midwest can still support Trump even when his policies are hurting many of them. Let’s hope the Dems can articulate the economic issues in 2020 amidst all of the campaign noise. Trump is a master of distraction.
5
Can't help but discern the slightly hidden glee that is expressed in the article in terms of the Obama to Trump counties doing badly. The authors seem to be keeping their fingers crossed that the 'economic warnings for Trump' in these four Midwest states continue.
2
Since Trump supporters look at numbers and evidence based on hard data very carefully, this article will surely contribute to their reexamining their choice.
Scant chance.
6
@darko When you are the one being hurt from lack of employment you don't need numbers to tell the story, just your neighbors. These numbers are just telling the rest of the country what those affected already know: that things didn't improve for them under Trump.
6
Are you trying to say that 2% growth isn't "the greatest economy of all time"?
5
@Bosox rule
I think you mean the sub 1 percent stagnation and growing unemployment of canada, no?
Don't worry about the US - it's trending back toward the 3 percent level along with continued wage and job participation growth.
@Bosox rule Well to be honest it does take the best mind ever to make that 2% growth happen!
Job growth in the Midwest is in the service industry. Jobs that don't pay particularly well. Not what one would call a living wage.
14
Jobs have ALMOST NOTHING to do with any President. The media uncritically reports job-related data as if they do. Decades ago, jobs used to come from investment (or massive gov't spending); at the moment they are related primarily to unsustainable Fed stimulus, which has largely run its course.
11
@dharmanaut - The President claims he has EVERYTHING to do with jobs. Just watch his rallies and rants.
1
Yes, he does indeed. They all do when things are going "well". That's why tRump goes out-of-his-way to setup (blame) the Fed for when downturn occurs (preposterously given their unprecedentedly weak monetary policy). He should therefore be held to account when recession hits (even that also will have almost nothing to do with him, well, besides the abysmal "governance" on offer).
1
Farming has been decimated in Iowa and the rest of the country and manufacturing depends on many aspects of Big Ag.
John Deere has been laying off lots of people, rural businesses are suffering, and yet Iowa farmers say they will support Trump.
It's not about the economy, its pure tribalism now and folks are voting against themselves, and for what?
21
I am heartened by the sharp criticism of the Trump administration and in particular Sonny Perdue I've heard at ag-related events (this past summer's FarmFest, for example). I don't know how this negative sentiment will truly bear out in Nov 2020--a lot of time will pass between now and then. But MN farmers and those who work in ag-adjacent industries are not happy with Trump in the moment, despite leaning Republican.
7
As someone from Ohio who moved out West and has houses in Utah/Arizona, the truth is everyone is fleeing high tax states like Illinois, California and Washington. Almost all of the wealthy areas Scottsdale are old Midwestern or California business owners, or current AZ business owners/doctors, who just are tired of paying into the beast.
Utah's government doesn't meddle in business and meets 45 days a year. It has a strong backbone of faith, work ethic and family, along with the highest workforce participation rate in the country. It also happens to have one of the most beautiful cities in the country and best outdoors, which doesn't hurt. Oh, and public transit that isn't a mess.
However, in terms of Jobs, the West is also a beneficiary of California's anti-business stance, high taxes and general 'jobs/money is bad'. We've had Amazon/Uber/etc coming here to Phoenix.
Ohio's market is growing, but not in manufacturing. It is in tech. Cincinnati has P/G, Kroger, largest GE engineering footprint, lots of finance- that's growing. Jobs the average Ohioan has been trained for are not growing. I get 5-10 recruiters a week asking if I'd consider moving back to Ohio, some with big city pay packages, but no more boring NYC concrete jungles for me. Miserable existence.
6
@Scott I would have moved West if I lived in Ohio too! It's high taxes are the #6 economy in the world with great weather, beaches and lots more. Pay your taxes and stop complaining! Get the wealthy to pay their fair share and this country will be just fine.
9
The trend of individuals moving to Arizona/Utah/Texas has happened for decades--at least since the late '80s into the '90s. I grew up in Kansas, moved through the mid-Atlantic, Colorado, and am now in MN with family in Ohio, Nebraska (which has notoriously high property taxes), Iowa.
That said, our tax base in Minnesota isn't suffering--other than due to Trump's devastating agriculture and trade policies.
3
@Scott Yes, CA's "anti-business" stance must be why we have the world's 5th largest economy and a jobs expansion that is outpacing housing in Silicon Valley and LA. There's no evidence that people are fleeing CA because of taxes, rather, much of the exodus is due to the red-hot housing market that is allowing home owners to cash out and move elsewhere and take their portable tech skills - invented in Silicon Valley - with them.
6
Raw numbers on employment with text explanation of jobs in particular industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, or extraction, are not as easy to read as something like this:
let’s see a side-by-side comparison of how many jobs are gained or lost in manufacturing v how many gained or lost in fallback work such as fast food retailing. How much do the old jobs pay v how much do the new jobs pay? Importantly, how many jobs must a worker hold in order to squeak by compared to ,Irving a decent life working one job... and what, if any, are the odds of a job offering possibilities for advancement v being a total dead end.
Underscore this with the issue of benefits won and lost, and how even someone with a job at WalMart has to rely on the public dole to survive?
Raw numbers do not tell the real story, which is a downward spiral made no better by Trumponomics, the latest in a decades long litany of scams.
14
@Pottree Check out the Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI), a new data set that Cornell University is now putting out. It illustrates this well. You have to scroll all the way down the website, but there is a great graph showing just how much job quality had declined since 1980. There was a bump into early 2017 after the recession, but it is heading back down again despite all the tax cuts.
10
Democrats should reprise their erstwhile support of labor unions and employee benefits as they show voters just how they would bring back manufacturing jobs.
Renewable energy and Green New Deal programs could spark a manufacturing growth spurt in the Rust Belt states.
But all I hear is Medicare for all and how to pay for it.
10
@Occupy Government
Manufacturing jobs won't come back unless US wages drop - jobs leaving China to avoid tariffs went to Vietnam and Cambodia. Unless US corporations are willing to share more profit with workers than they are with CEOs and shareholders, manufacturing jobs won't come back to the US (exception have been a few where energy costs are higher than labor costs in foreign countries). One of the best examples of this is Teslas new "gigafactory" built in China during Trump's trade war.
10
I'm afraid that it will take four more years of Trump to convince the low info voters that he is no good for them, so the Dems had better get the votes of the apathetic folks with a huge voter registration drive to save US from Trump's chaos.
16
@Hector He is not useful..? Hard to be apathetic..
@Hector He is not useful? Those uninterested folks wouldn't want to be used to benefit some strangers..
Job growth does not necessarily equal wage growth, income growth, or improvements in the standard of living.
Job numbers look good only because many companies are taking full-time jobs and dividing them into multiple part-time jobs.
22
Actually, I really think economic stagnation in those states helps Trump. People who are doing well can see him for what he is; white people who aren't see him as a fighter in their corner. Based on these statistics Trump needs to worry about Texas and Florida more than the Midwest.
6
My perception is that Trump will not be affected by this. The new Republicans want their base to stay angry. I know that a poor economy is usually a bad sign for the incumbent president but in this unusual case, his core supporters will not, in my opinion blame him. Rather, they will blame the usual suspects, immigrants, China, and liberals.
17
@Martin You make an excellent point
2
@Martin that's EXACTLY what I said in my own comment.
2
We have an economy dependent on consumer spending, but retail is dying. IMO, advertising is killing it. Venders I used once are sending me sales emails several times a day. I have recycled a three foot high stack of catalogs so far this season; no need to open them because I shop online. I can afford to buy, but don’t need any more stuff. The more I see corporate spam in my inbox, the faster and farther I run. It doesn’t take long to create anti-consumerists.
I used to be more charitable, until organizations I have supported for decades keep soliciting me to give more than I can. Tricks like conflating dues and gifts and sending a renewal notice after my generosity feels unappreciative at best; just more spam I dare not encourage. Sorry, but your unseemly begging no longer works.
Every information platform is eventually destroyed by advertisements; I recognized social media as more of the same, and avoided signing up. Who even notices ads any more except to get them out of the way? Please cease and desist before commerce is suffocated completely.
24
Not sure what the "warning signs" are here? The only sign I see is a positive one for Trump. Every battleground state that he won in 2016 is doing better off economically. If anything there is a warning sign for the Dems.
16
@Mauricio
Rural states are no better off (notice no more talk about "clean beautiful coal") and to add insult to injury, natural gas companies are pulling out of Appalachia. You can listen to and promote Trump hype, but people who live in these areas know the Truth - they also know they want to keep their healthcare, and Republicans want to cut it.
As far as what's going on in key 'battleground' states, I suggest you re-read the article.
6
@Mauricio Are you talking about WI? Minn, Mich, Ohio, and PA? Is CA a 'battleground state? or the Hispanics in TX? Idaho has good job growth 7.7% but what are the actual numbers of new workers in Idaho v. Ohio 1.6% or VA 2.3%?
2
None of this matters. If you support Trump, you will continue to do so no matter what. If you don't, you never will no matter what. Every poll taken says exactly that. Who votes and how many will make the difference in the election.
70
@opinated
This is an outright fabrication. There have been numerous studies and polls, many reported in the NYTimes, that there is a small but critical group of Obama-Trump voters who could swing back to the Democrats in 2020, if the Democrats make them feel welcome. Many such voters are concentrated in the Rust Belt states where the Electoral College will be decided.
20
@Ron Cohen
Easy there. You are correct about that very small group of so-called swing voters. But they are a very tiny minority. The OP is correct in that the overwhelming majority of people are firm in their support of Trump or are firmly against Trump.
Should we try and reach them? Of course. Every vote counts. But casting a much wider net and trying to reach the voter who feels left out or is disinterested seems to be a more effective strategy.
As always, the young vote will be the key. Their numbers swamp swing voters.
If democrats nominate someone who people will enthusiastically support... they win. Nominate another lackluster more of the same candidate...they lose.
7
@Ron Cohen
Does feeling welcome mean not nominating a woman or progressive? As a moderate myself, I do not feel that the democratic party should feel the need to nominate a white male that is just republican light. Republican light will buy in to all of the GOP talking points about socialism and working together, then everyone knows that any liberal president would be blocked completely by the senate. If that is the criterion, we need to cater to progressives. Obama was a moderate and republicans only work their conspiracies against him.
7
Signs might be for Trump but the lesson should be for all: drop your sexism and vote for an experienced legislator like Amy Klobuchar. We need a steady hand who can reach across the aisle, not someone inexperienced like Pete or old like the rest of 'em. Drastic times call for...sensible and firm measures.
23
@L
Sexism has nothing to do with it. Warren was leading in many polls until she sabotaged her own campaign by pulling a Kamala Harris and flip-flopping on a core issue like healthcare.
That brings Warren's authenticity to the fore. Time will tell if she can recover.
As for Klobuchar, she has voted with Trump 34% of the time and an astounding 68% of the time with his judges. We tried republican-lite in 2016. Did not end well for democrats, the USA, or the world.
2
I'm no Trump fan, but this article is giving a false narrative. There's a big difference between annual job growth and unemployment. The unemployment rate is low in much of the Midwest right now. So, a 1-2% increase from a base that is nearly fully employed is actually pretty good. Higher growth rates are coming in states in which there was more room to employ. Low employment growth rates matter when there is a lot of unemployment, not when the unemployment rate is very low already. In that case, any positive number is a good sign, not a bad one.
19
@John
Your point holds water only if those low unemployment rates are not a result of people having to work more than one job to support themselves.
11
@ExPatMX - That cannot be the case, because that's not how the BLS calculates the rate. They survey 60,000 households nationwide and determine whether each respondent is employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. It doesn't matter if you work more than one job, you're just one employed person in the statistics.
8
@John the numbers need to be broken down in more detail. What percentage of these jobs pay a living age and offer some sort of benefits (health insurance, 401ks, etc)? What percentage are minimum wage jobs? What percentage are so-called "gig economy" jobs?
8
The real elephant in the room is a slow but steady shift away from manufacturing of hard goods in the Midwest to southern states and out of the country. This trend has been manifest for several decades and shows no sign of abating.
Another harbinger is a decline in the number of Millennials and Gen Ys getting driver licenses, which foreshadows a decline in future automobile sales. American and foreign carmakers are well aware of this trend and are planning accordingly to gradually shut down car assembly plants in the Midwest, shift production to areas with lower labor costs, and automate the process as much as possible.
Ramping back and shutting down production will have a ripple effect on suppliers to auto manufacturers, costing more jobs in Midwestern states.
The same trend can be identified in the white goods sector - we have essentially one major U.S. appliance maker left in Whirlpool, now that GE sold its appliance business and brands to Chinese electronics giant Haier.
No presidential candidate from any party can buck these trends, no matter how many and what kinds of promises they make and tariffs they impose. Recall the promises made to Carrier employees in 2016 and the $700 million subsidy paid to them by the state of Indiana. What difference did that make in the long run?
21
@hdtvpete Other parts of the economy will also be impacted by these demographics such as higher education. Colleges and universities need to rethink their missions as high school enrollments plummet.
3
@hdtvpete I suppose I would not be so pessimistic. Certainly these trends cannot be reversed in one administration, but if the federal government enacted a real industrial policy and continue to carry it out for a generation, the off shoring trend could certainly be reversed. The underlying problem has been that the business class who have driven the offshoring bought both political parties long ago. Therefore, no United States industrial policy.
3
Jobs are part of a larger tapestry, and measuring one part without considering the others means next to nothing.
What is the ratio of monthly pay to rent, or yearly pay to house prices? Has that metric improved in Utah, where the job growth is the greatest? Or has the job growth driven up prices, allowing landlords to capture the increases? Can these newly-hired workers afford health care and pay their student debt?
These are all part of something called "quality of life", and I don't think it's getting better.
Looking at a multivariate reality through a single lens always gives you a distorted picture.
18
Fox News will tell the voters in swing districts that Trump has led to massive upticks in manufacturing, and they will believe that over their lying eyes.
39
@Jason M
Well, according to the data in this very article it would be generally true.
Whoops.
4
@Russian Bot
If you read the article it said essentially that manufacturing job employment has started reversing in Michigan for example and in other districts that had voted for him. And if net job growth is among minimum wage jobs as a statistical offset, well that is not the "winning" Trump promised. And like all of his promises like marriage oaths, releasing his taxes, and the success of his businesses, he has and is still lying. Facts have a way of catching up to people eventually. Especially when the cupboard is bare. Like in most Russian family homes.
17
This story misses how Wisconsin has an unusually low unemployment rate and a flat population. How can employment grow if there aren't more people and most people have a job? Don't get me wrong, this economy is hardly satisfying. Employment numbers hide information like quality of employment, access to benefits, wages, etc. But don't make the rookie mistake of assuming low growth is a sign of trouble. You have to correct for population growth and the a priori unemployment rate.
27
@Eric I would put another take on the low unemployment statistics in these states. It's the result of an aging and shrinking population. Aging population, the baby boomers, are dropping out of the workforce and, thus, lowering the unemployment rate. Millenials are flocking to urban coastal tech hubs, shrinking the population, depressing the unemployment rate. Social services, healthcare, et.al., are taking an increasing share of the employment to care for the aging population. It all adds up to a false reading of the 'low unemployment' number as being a sign of a healthy economy.
It's one thing to aggressively re-negotiate trade deals, but it's quite another to be caught unprepared for the consequences of same.
Paying tens of billions of dollars to farmers to offset the economic pain of losing soybean and other crop sales to China as a result of "shoot from the hip" tariff policies is just another form of income redistribution (i.e. "socialism"). It's a zero-sum game.
The impact of imposing steep tariffs should have been more carefully considered to minimize economic impact that, for farmers, can create financial aftershocks lasting a year or more.
There is a saying: "Fools rush in where wise men fear to tread." That concisely describes this administration's trade and foreign policies to date. Be very suspicious of any politician who says "trade wars are easy!" and that "tax cuts will pay for themselves!"
27
@hdtvpete
Lower the tariffs?
One of the major problems dealing with China re "free" trade is that said govt. heavily subsidizes their industries which make it hard for U.S. companies to compete. And China has no intention to change their policies which is why they're winning so handily.
10
@Michael, all true. And China's policy of forcing companies who want to do business in China to establish manufacturing facilities there, consequently leaving intellectual property exposed to theft, has needed addressing for a long time.
My argument is that negotiating trade deals is not "easy" by a long shot - every action creates an opposite reaction, sometimes disproportionate - and U.S. trade negotiators need to be careful about showing their hands too quickly.
Instead, we have the equivalent of a poker game where this administration seems to think a pair of tens can beat anyone else's hand and "calls" just as the game is getting started.
8
@Michael
How is it that the heavily subsidised U.S. dairy and poultry markets, oil and gas industries and State and local subsidies are viewed as capitalism but applied in other countries are branded as socialism.
10
More proof that Trump is a punter and has no long term strategies whatsoever. A quick buck and lots of lies, braggadocio, and buffoonery. Will Americans fall for this dog and pony show a second time? Tune in folks; it's the best entertainment there is.
24
My gosh. This graphic is a Trump commercial for re-election. Growth in every state but Alaska. Nice try trying to spin this into something negative for Trump.
9
@JC
Did you not note Michigan is below zero? And that PA, Wisconsin and Ohio have what less than 2% growth over what 3 years? Is that some idea of what winning is? Please tell us where the parties in those states are? Just ask the farmers going bankrupt in Wisconsin which wasn't really discussed. The farmer bail out payments go to the "corporate farmers" while the little guys go under. But the little guys vote in Wisconsin, the corporate "persons" not so much. We will see.
15
Don't worry, duped Midwest farmers will still vote for Trump since he's bribed them with $30 billion to cover up his "easy to win" trade wars.
15
@Lewis Ford
Some will. But several of those states were close affairs. Even a very modest softening of support for the president could be disastrous for his reelection bid. And that's even before getting into the issue of whether the government support thus far pledged will actually make the farmers whole.
9
@Jasper That’s wishful thinking or something with an element of truth to it. I’m thinking a little bit of both. But either way, the chance the Democrats have here will be blown is if Sanders or Warren is the nominee. Because the people they’ll scare away just by having their name on the ballot will be greater than those on the fence who might turn against Trump.
2
@Lewis Ford
...not all of us, Lewis. Thanks for reinforcing a stereotype. Oh, and btw you have reinforced the stereotype of a narrow-minded urbanite with no clue.
3
The Midwest will be the battleground that decides the 2020 presidential election. Their employment numbers aren't great but neither are they awful.
Based on the results that just occurred in Britain, it seems that nominating Sanders or Warren would be a risky proposition. Meanwhile, Biden will almost certainly be dragged through the mud during the impeachment trial.
Not feeling great as a Democrat right now.
6
@Robert
This is the US, not the UK. Even their very form of government is different from ours. Trying to extrapolate their election to ours is as wide a leap as trying to jump across the ocean that separates us.
Who comes out to vote and who stays home will be a much larger deciding point of the 2020 election than will be employment numbers that as you indicate are neither great or awful.
To paraphrase Ol' Lizard man himself, Jimmy Carville: It's the turnout, stupid.
And don't forget Iowa, too. While leaning Republican, the State voted for Obama twice. According to the article, job growth there has been anemic (1.6%). It's not just Wisconsin that could determine the election. Iowa could be the determining State next year.
10
Has anyone looked at the engineering sector? This is anecdotal, but I know quite a few engineers who are twiddling their thumbs right now, possibly due to the fact that nobody in the deregulatory Trump administration cares whether things blow up, fall down, or pollute the air, soil, and water. And a dispatcher I know in the trucking industry said, nationwide, loads are WAY down. So, maybe manufacturing is a bellwether, but it would be interesting to see what other types of jobs are either doing well or suffering now, besides just manufacturing.
28
@Citizen-of-the-World thanks to Trump and his minions, work for criminal lawyers seems to be way, way up!
@Citizen-of-the-World I am an experienced manufacturing engineer and am also unemployed and have been since the fall of 2017. That employer let me go because it was too expensive to have me based in the US while all their products were expected to be launched in Mexico, China, or the eastern EU.
I did find a temp-to-hire position in the summer of 2018, but lost that gig after less than 3 months because the private equity owners of the firm cancelled the projects I had been hired to help with, due to Trump's NAFTA actions and threatened auto tariffs.
90
@Citizen-of-the-World As one of the lucky retired group previously doing global supply chain work with foreign companies who located in the Portland, Oregon area, I suggest that manufacturing engineers & other manufacturing workers move to a place where the jobs are. I did it twice back in 1980, obtained an MBA and went on to relative success with retirement in 2000. My wife and I, neither with company pensions, saved like crazy and have done reasonably well with our 401K gleanings.
Ask yourselves: Was the U.S. a stronger or weaker country before establishing free trade with China?
As I see it, the country was more stable and there was far more income equality without free trade with China.
7
@Michael
It is true that income inequality has grown consistently during the last four decades in the US. However, China trades with the whole world and we are not seeing income inequality growing in all rich countries. So maybe we need to look for other explanations. Here’s some interesting graphs to study https://ourworldindata.org/income-inequality
To me the basic problem with bringing back manufacturing jobs from China is that the Chinese don’t make a lot of money from manufacturing products. The yearly manufacturing wage is around $10,000 in China. Add to this they probably work many more hours than us to gain this humble income.
1
The numbers are deceiving. In today's gig economy, more people than ever are unemployed between gigs, but are not eligible for unemployment benefits nor are they included in unemployment statistics.
36
@James Joseph
Yes! Being employed in a temp. gig job, working for cash and tips at $14 per hour, with no benefits, still qualifies as being employed.
How many millions of good citizens are classified as "employed", but only slowly staving-off bankruptcy and hunger?
-C
35
@Charlie Add homelessness to your list. Displacement due to gentrification and rising taxes is a nationwide problem. The cost of housing is spiraling out of control.
3
@Charlie I know what you mean James, we just need to hope that no surprise expenses will pop out of the blue (i.e. broken appliance, illness, auto accident, etc.), and then our world would rattle really bad! Let us all hang tight!
1
Wishful thinking on the part of this article that only job growth or the lack of dictates an election outcome. Much more is who is truely fighting to save jobs and American culture , not promoting a socialist or far left state.
4
@Al Morgan
Remind me, which -ism did Trump employ when he gave struggling farmers 28 billion of our tax dollars to counteract the effects of said administration's trade war?
11
@Al Morgan Out here in the fact-base world, no one is proposing either a socialist or far left state, but Republicans and Trump have been destroying American culture and the middle class for decades.
2
@TheWitness Trumpism.
Except for Alaska I didn't see any overall statewide numbers that decreased. And several red states that dramatically increased. So I don't think that this is any sort of bellwether for Trump.
First, as long as they aren't worse off it will count as a positive for Trump.
Second, Trump will point to the other areas of greater growth and claim he can do the same for them (never mind that is what he promised last time) if they just vote for him. Again.
6
@Marie Well said, not that I agree with the numbers. In today's gig economy, more than ever people are unemployed but are not eligible for unemployment benefits nor are they included in unemployment statistics.
12
There are many areas in the country where the broad numbers — averages, medians, trends — don’t accurately portray real life. Jobs in the New England states are few, except in high tech cities; smaller towns in Maine, NH,VT and western MA, struggle to keep talented, educated college graduates. Despite the recent attention to the need for jobs in the trades, there are few technical schools and little information about union pathways to good jobs. We can’t just sit here and wait for the next president to fix things. Everyone needs to work toward attracting good-paying jobs. Everyone needs to understand that as plumbers and electricians are aging out of the work force, we need more young people to enter those high-skilled, high-paying trades.
34
In other words those new jobs are going to the same coastal "elites" who reaped the benefits during the last years of the Obama administration. When Trump crows about the employment numbers to the folks at his Midwest campaign rallies someone needs to shout back "WHAT jobs?"
37
@stu freeman it's kind of like when he crows about the stock market. Unfortunately the people in the lower economic rungs might was well be invisible.
21
Leave it to the NYT to take what is the most positive job growth in decades throughout the country and make it seem as if it's a bad thing for Trump. I support Trumps policies and think he is not Presidential in the way past Presidents have been but for the average American he's done right by them.
7
@Bill "[F]or the average American he's done right by them." Huh?
He promised that his tax cuts would stimulate economic growth to 4% levels, filling gov't coffers and enabling major infrastructure expansion. Those cuts only produced income growth for the wealthy, and raised the deficit to nearly a trillion dollars (it will pass that next year). Economic growth is a measly 2% (https://www.bea.gov/news/glance). There is no infrastructure plan. If these things happened with a democrat in office, there'd be no end of complaining by so-called conservatives.
Since he's taken office, job growth has been basically a straight line continuation of what Obama was achieving (see Chart 1 in this BLS report: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf). In fact, the unemployment rate started falling more *slowly* than it had been falling under Obama, shortly after Trump took office (see Chart 10).
He promised he'd replace the ACA (Obamacare) with something dramatically better. Looks like he's just totally given up on even trying that.
He said trade wars would be easy to win. But he is causing a world of pain to manufacturers and farmers with his un-won trade war, and the best-case deal he might achieve is looking worse than what the TPP would have done.
He promised a great wall that Mexico would pay for. Well, a modest wall has been barely started. And guess who is paying for it—US taxpayers.
Trump is "doing right for the average American" only in a fact-free fantasy land.
107
@Bill I agree with your sentiment to some degree. However I am not a fan of Trump's personality on the world stage, and the example he sets for children as a chaotic and foul mouthed role model. But to some degree, his trade war with China is a necessary means to an end, and yes he has been trying to do right by the people who elected him (which includes apparently, many of the things that I really dislike about his erratic behavior). The Obama presidency was so stable and calm, that as much as it did really good things (which it did) it also created a global atmosphere that needed to be "shaken up" -- but now we are on the other side of that, in dangerous territory. Where do we go from here, what will the consequences be from some of his more harmful policy positions (paris climate agreement withdrawal, climate denial) if he gets another 4 years? How will things play out with North Korea? He has done well with the USMCA trade deal. He deserves credit for it. But he plays a dangerous game with Erdogan and the Saudis. I don't think he really understands the Middle East, and all of his stumblings are to the detriment of our troops, who he withdrawals only to redeploy, and harms our standing with allies and our reputation as honorable to our word. This is a chaotic president, and his willingness to break rules combined with his ignorance of bureaucratic process, creates someone who can think outside the box, but also someone who can accidentally light the house on fire.
12
@Bill Sometimes the truth hurts. Is that why Trump avoids it?
8
“By September or October of next year, if you’re campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, western Pennsylvania or Indiana, you can point clearly to the trade war as a cause of growing economic malaise in those states,”
I'd suspect memories of having packed up manufacturing equipment to ship to Mexico will outweigh such arguments. Not will it be of interest to the older retired populations remaining in these places.
8
The Dems and their elite supporters are going to have to do better than a pro-China sweetheart of Wall Street if they're going to make the condescending "economic interest" argument. She didn't even support universal healthcare! And as bad as the current occupant may be, he hasn't done one-tenth of the damage that her husband did to the region. He was one of the worst Democratic presidents, ever. She didn't represent their interests -- she represented yours. Slow growth is better than calamitous decline in the Midwest precipitated by 42. No, wake up. You need a better argument if you're going to win. This is not a bad economy.
5
@Chris Gray
Last time I checked, Hillary Clinton isn't running for President - so maybe get some 2019 talking points and stop recycling the ones from 2016. The rosey economic picture in Chicago is much harder to see in just about every city around you. Take a two hour drive (maybe 6 hours in Chicago traffic) and take a look at Trump's real economy. Gary, Racine, Lafayette, Michigan City - these places are struggling.
Also, I recall the "calamitous decline" happening under 43, George Bush - after he deregulated the market to spur economic growth and gave huge tax cuts to the wealthy.
It is interesting that 45 is doing the same thing. Think it will end differently this time?
47
If I were China, I’d hang on and not make a deal with Trump. The tariffs and their drag on the US economy are Trump’s Achilles heel, and could cost him the election. China must want to deal with someone more reasonable at this point.
24
@E China is hanging on and winning. But the dupes that eat up Trump's lies will never understand that. China can afford to sit back, take a hit, and retool. In the end China will provide 500 million consumers at US levels and out bid the US with greater efficiency and lower wages. Americans are no longer conducive to competition. They voted for protectionism. The US is buying Chinese heavy wind turbines for wind farms in Texas; developed by Chinese corporations, financed by Chinese banks, and made from GE models pirated forty years ago. The problem isn't China it's America. Why was GE allowed to sell its technology to China? GE is the world's second largest manufacturer of heavy wind turbines; but they are made in India. The problem isn't China. The problem is the American myth of free enterprise, where US global corporations take American developed products and move the manufacturing offshore for profits the true owners of the item, the American people, will never see.
18
@E I quote Sun Tzu:
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
The Chinese power brokers know their enemy and themselves: their very first retaliatory tariffs hit the heart of Trump country. And they know just how far they can push their own people.
Trump and his team know neither their enemy nor themselves.
33
@E I agree with you. China seems intent on, eventually, bypassing the US what with its intention to have only Chinese-made computers and phones in government and other large organizations within the next 3 years. There is also growing pride and patriotism among ordinary people intent on buying Chinese products and studying their own history.(There are even young women who wear new versions of ancient court dress for goodness sake.) Then there's China's sabre rattling in the South China Sea, its massive belt and road initiative, its judicious international acquisitions through development loans to African and other countries. I see them building a very good work around and it doesn't seem that the Trump administration gets it.
1
Do facts matter? Trump supporters do not believe 'facts'. In less than a year we will see whether the country is, on the whole (electoral college wise) following the facts, or the propaganda.
58
@Bruce Maier The nature of Trump supporter thinking is much like that of religious practitioners. They accept information on faith, that is, the process of non-thinking. No evaluation, no scrutiny, no objectivity.
14
According to the Bureau Labor Statistics (BLS.gov) during the 34 months Donald Trump has been in office 6,557,000 jobs were created.
That compares with 7,710,000 jobs created during the last 34 months Barack Obama was in office ending in January 2017.
Another number the BLS keeps track of is the Labor Force Participation rate which divides the number of people actively participating in the labor force by the total number of people eligible to participate in the labor force.
That number at the end of November was 63.2%, which barely moved the needle from the 62.9% when Obama left office.
It is a dismal performance considering that the U.S. population grew by over 6.5 million since Trump has been in office. The number of jobs created, therefore, should have been far higher, not lower, than Obama's for the 34 months Trump has been in office.
Trump and the Republican Party can take full credit for the $1.5 trillion tax cut which helped all Americans, but especially the top 1% who received the most benefit.
Trump brayed that he would bring back millions of jobs from foreign countries to the U.S. and bragged that the tax cut would pay for itself in increased federal revenue, adding that he would wipe out the national debt as well.
But, the 2018 budget deficit was just under $300 billion while the national debt soared by $3 trillion to over $22 trillion.
Trump's Potemkin Village economy is being exposed for the fraud that it is.
145
@Richard Lies, Damned lies and Statistics.
The Dems in 2020 will suffer a far worse defeat than your Labor Party Stalinist pal suffered at the hands of Conserrvative Boris Johnson
Remember who told you this and when, in Nov 2020.
7
@Thor, rather than using school yard taunts offer some facts that refute what Richard says. It's easy to criticize, taunt, and bully. Like nearly all Americans I had no dog in the UK election fight and could care less who won. How about the continual bait and switch of most Republicans who claim that lower taxes always leads to higher economic output--didn't work in Kansas or Louisiana, did it?
53
@Thor
Oh he's shaking in his boots, it's the god of thunder!
I bet you said the same thing before the 2018 midterms.
Trump is going to lose worse in 2020 than Harbaugh does every year against THE Ohio State.
See you in 2020
24
Container shipping to or through the Midwest wheelhouse (Chicago) is down significantly overall through deliberate interference. From an import or export perspective, reduced trade with the Pacific impacts jobs for truck drivers, warehouse dock workers, assembly and repack, admin people, and so on.
Those of us in container management look forward to returning Chinese bulk ag shipments. Fully 30 % of US outbound ag export shipments which otherwise should have happened ... didn't. All because of this interference. All those trucks chasing around that many fewer loads is bad economics for those involved.
Same thing goes for the toy importers like Mattel and Hasbro. Ask them how well they did this Holiday Season. The many jerks on the supply chain rope made for instability at the store shelf level this year. Who knows the delivered price of Barbie to the shelf? Again, from the container management perspective, bad economics for those involved. Bad economics hinders peoples' sense of well being. People cutback on spending, and the multiplier effects begins.
13
Trust me on this: By summer, Trump will make whatever deal he can with the Chinese, trumpet the results and take advantage of any short-term benefits, touting them as the permanent answer to all our economic problems. Any problems encountered will be de-emphasized or ignored as usual. Any incidental long-term detriment to the climate will be denied as bad science. And he will campaign on the slogan of having saved the economy (and the country) all by himself.
46
@Peter Eisenstadter YES HE DID. Obama and his left wing green exremists would not even allow the PIPELINE. I have no time to explain to you how econ illiterate Dems are. Trump sure deserves HUGE Credit for our STELLAR Economy. And in Nov 2020, he will GET IT in a landslide reelection.
2
@Peter Eisenstadter He institutes policies which ultimately creates problems. He backs off those policies and claims he saved the day. Win, win. Are the American people really that gullible? I just want to see his tax returns.
13
@Thor
OK, Thor. Trump might get re-elected.
It's worth watching the six-minute segment on the China trade deal from the PBS Newshour the other night, wherein China expert Prof. Mary Lovely from Syracuse University's Petersen Institute says, "It's hard to see where they going to put that amount" of soybeans that comprise part of the deal.
For the most part, Prof. Lovely is evenhanded and considers the deal a positive step forward in easing tensions. But even she notes that the greatest amount of soybeans ever purchased by China from the U.S. was in 2017, which was $27 billion. This new deal claims $50 billion worth of
"agricultural goods", about twice the greatest amount ever sold.
Basically, we've been down this road before--Trump creates a crisis, and then expects kudos for "solving" it, but wait, it's not really solved, the really hard stuff is still ahead.
As always with this administration and its super duper deals, stop, look and listen--just like you would before crossing train tracks.
https://youtu.be/J9FWh-37vRQ
110
@Jan If anything, China will buy fewer soybeans in the next several years than prior to the trade war. The soybeans were used as feed on pig farms. However, the swine flu decimated the herds. Fewer pigs = fewer soybeans needed.
10
@Sarah B. Not to also mention, China has opened new markets, primarily Brazil, to meet their soybean needs. I don't see them compromising these new business partners to make a deal with a leader that ultimately can't be trusted. It's just not good business.
7
I've long thought that Trump's undoing would probably be his own policy ineptitude: it's pretty clear the President of the United States is a woefully ignorant, chronically under-read simpleton on all matters relevant to the country's governance including, alas, economics.
In short, Trump is oblivious as to what policies will help or hurt his own reelection prospects. Getting into a pointless and destructive trade war with the world's second largest economy is very much an example of the latter.
55
@Jasper I quite agree. But what might get him reelected is a target whipping issue like the email server in Hillary Clinton's house. The primary motivation for the Ukraine phone call was to get an announcement of an investigation so he could pound away during the campaign. Trump is all about the show, never about the substance.
57
@cjg
Trump is essentially a one-trick pony. Sad thing is that too many are fooled time & again with that same trick.
As to “show & substance”,
I heard a phrase long ago in a Social Sciences course that might apply: “political aesthetics”.
It was applied to another guy who held massive rallies for his adoring followers. It worked well for him for all too long.
8
Ohio and Pennsylvania have an even more unique problem. Retiring Dems are moving to the sunshine states in greater numbers than the Republicans and right wingers. They are staying home to die. They get more angry and watch more Fox News as that fateful day draws closer.
20
@USNA73 According to data from the last census, Pennsylvania has the 3rd-largest population of retirees behind #1 Florida and #2 West Virginia. (PA was #2 for quite a while.)
In addition, population and demographic shifts indicate there is a growing influx of former residents of New Jersey, many of whom are Democrats. These new residents, searching for lower property and income taxes and more affordable housing, are settling in the Philadelphia ring counties and in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area (Northampton and Lehigh counties).
All of these areas elected Democrats to the House in 2018, and all of the four Philly ring counties now have Democrats running their governments and a majority of row offices.
This, plus a PA Supreme Court ruling against gerrymandering and a subsequent redistricting, have turned PA into a blue state with 9 Democrats and 9 Republicans, shifting from a previous overwhelming GOP majority.
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@USNA73 which makes it virtually impossible for Democrats to carry either state.
This has been the story in the mid-west for the past 50 years already.
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Finally someone is paying attention to what is happening in the handful of states that will decide the election (again). National stats and polls mean nothing; all that matters is what happens in these few states.
Now steadily show polling data from those states so we know what the true picture is.
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Mr. Trump is going to be in Battle Creek for a rally on Wednesday. This event will attract thousands of people to cheer for the president–even as Battle Creek continues to spiral down with plant closings and a struggling downtown over three years past Trump's election. When will people in the Midwest suddenly realize that they've been played for suckers?
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@Lee Rentz Probably next fall, which is shaping up to be a blue October.
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@Steven Let us hope you are right.
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@Lee Rentz
Democrats have been pushing this narrative for the better part of ten years. For whatever reason, it isn't resonating with the Republicans at whom it's directed.
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Many of these jobs pay poorly and impermanent. That's cold comfort in the Midwest.
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I think we’re beyond “it’s the economy stupid.” Trump supporters have a cult like devotion to him. I lived in a small town in Wisconsin, and there is nothing a Trumpist likes more than schadenfreude. It doesn’t matter if their lives are dismal and hopeless. As long as Trump is sticking it to the Libs, the environmentalists, the people of color, etc, they’ll be happy.
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@Todd same experience in my neck of the woods
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@Todd I have also recently heard this utterly lame "cult" excuse used on the fans and owners of the US's only SUCCESSFUL (and for good reason!) automaker of BEVs, T E S L A, both the buyers of their AWESOME and affordable BEVs as well as the buyers of their very expensive Stock.
In both cases, there is NO CULT. They DESERVE their success.
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@Todd While I agree that this may be true in certain parts of the country, I think that there is a growing change in the suburbs. I think that people in the urban and suburban areas are getting tired of the chaos.
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Will the Democratic candidate next year campaign on the weak economy in the industrial Midwest or on diversity, LGBT rights and Medicare For All Even If They Like Their Health Insurance?
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And what about lost agricultural markets in the Midwst? It's all fine and well for Trump to reduce (but not eliminate tariffs) and for the Chinese to agree to purchase more soybeans and so forth. But will the Chinese actually do this? Once they've established ties to other markets in Brazil and Argentina, what makes Trump think the Chinese will drop these more reliable suppliers and take up again with their previous American ones?
Tariff man has damaged American trade, including agriculture, beyond repairing.
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@Wiltontraveler YES! Those fires in Brazil are soybean fields being created! By interrupting the US China soybean trade, Trump has created great opportunities for other global regions to trade with China. Additionally the deals will be done in Renminbi not dollars enhancing the currencies status.
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Trump's base voters, no matter how much pain he inflicts on these states, they will still vote for him. As Trump says, to make America great again, there will have to be some pain---and the masochists they are, it appears the more pain the better----go figure.
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@Alan Jones
Agree. For many Trump voters it is about feeling there is a 'tough guy' in their corner, saying & tweeting the things they say to each other about 'illegals,' China and other blame targets.
The WalMart 'Always The Low Price' juggernaut did not create itself; millions of allegedly informed shoppers seeking lower prices for decades did, to the determent of domestic manufacturers.
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@Mike
He’s their quarterback. It’s as close to real life many Trump voters will ever get. Sports. They might even be waging bets about which team/quarterback will win, by what margin, etc.
Except, they can’t see beyond one quarterback.
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Of course it's slowing down after the tax cut and spending stimulus wears off. Meanwhile, deficits and debt are soaring, due to the same tax cut and spending stimulus'. It's Econ101!
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But thank you all for spending (borrowing) to keep this economy "strong". There will come a time when these bills are due and, suddenly, the pain will begin.
And we never had a year of 6% GDP growth. Go figure.
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@T Raymond Anthony,
Absolutely correct! The supposedly "booming" economy is in fact just another giant credit bubble. Most of the borrowing has been by large corporations, feeding from the trough of "quantitative easement." Most of the money has been used to inflate share prices through buy-backs. The share-price-to-earnings ratio is high by historical standards, but actually much higher than it looks because the number of shares has gone down. Which, of turn, makes the earnings-per-share ratio look better than it actually is.
Whenever the economy begins to sag, Trump orders (and receives!) another drop in the Fed funds lending rate (currently at 1.75%, after three reductions from 2.5% in July).
Which spells deep trouble ahead, because when the bills come due, as you say, then the Fed won't have anything to offer as a tool for recovery. Batten down the hatches, we're in for some very stormy weather.
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@T Raymond Anthony Of the past 90 years (since 1929) we have had 18 years with greater than 6% GDP (including three 'war years', 42-43-44, at 17+%). The last time we went over 6% was in 1984, 35 years ago. That's a long time ago and further compromises Trump's prediction that we will get anywhere near 6%. Just another con.
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@T Raymond Anthony
And it will all be blamed on the Democrats. Wash, rinse, repeat.
1
This is a whole bunch of wishful thinking, assembled in numbing detail. The only people who aren't happy with things in the Midwestern states are those who don't want good things to happen because Trump caused them. These "heavy industry" states have higher entry costs, sluggish markets and ruthless competition from around the globe. Get over it, you guys. Go President Trump. Four more years!
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@Hoobert Herver Remember the Republican deficit hawks? What do you hear from them these days? Crickets!
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@Hoobert Herver And all this wondrous economy took was the largest debt in the history of earth. Try that for yourself and count how many people call you a success.
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If previous articles in the Times are anything to go by, this will have little to no effect on how people vote. For example, a couple of months ago, farmers in Iowa (if I recall correctly) were whingeing about their income woes specifically brought on by Trump's tariffs, but said they would vote for him in 2020. It would seem the state of the economy is no longer the bellwether it once was in terms of electoral advantage/disadvantage; apparently, tribalism is now the, or at least a, main factor determining many people's voting decisions.
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@Danny
I know, it's horrific to witness up close.
3
The data here on Macomb County, Michigan is misleading.
The largest single employer in the County is GM. During this period, GM has been on strike. It counts as gone.
However, Macomb County is a troubling story apart from that, because the GM Transmission plant there is scheduled for closing. Whether it will is one subject of the strike. Right now, it isn't closed yet, but it is on strike.
If the strike produces higher wages, as the strikers intended, then the news for Macomb County will be much better, not the unemployment of a strike, but return to employment at new higher wages. Unless of course the transmission plant falls through next year.
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@Mark Thomason The transmission plant will close as scheduled. The GM strikers won't make up the losses from the strike; their profit share for next fiscal year will fall by at least the amount of the contract signing bonus.
The strike was artificially prolonged by corrupt UAW leaders seeking to distract the membership from their wrongdoing.
4
The states doing the worst now are also coming from a point much further down. During the Great Recession they had much worse unemployment than the other states that are now also growing better.
Michigan had over 9% unemployment during the worst of it, resulting in Congress granting extended unemployment benefits stretching out for a couple of years instead of six months.
Growing least from a much lower point is much worse than just growing least.
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@Mark Thomason This is what I noticed first, also. I looked here: https://data.bls.gov/lausmap/showMap.jsp;jsessionid=51E613E1349413B326F8EEB7DBE8EBA6._t3_07v which is the government's latest unemployment map. The states west of the Mississippi, the core of Trump's strength, are the largest block of good employment stats in the country. It could easily come down to numbers vis-a-vis the electoral college, yet again.
2
Well, if jobs, particularly in manufacturing, are way down in the Midwest states of WI, MN, MI, OH and PA, then the candidate the Democrats should be running if we want to beat Trump is not Former VP Joe Biden, but Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). He is a labor-progressive, sharp on these issues, and wins by big margins in Ohio.
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@G James: Unfortunately, Sherrod Brown doesn’t want to run. Hopefully he’ll be asked for, and agree to be, VP.
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Will the lower orders in the Midwest vote their economic interests or their gut feelings? Peter Drucker before WWII spoke of the End of Economic Man, meaning that voters were not into their rational goals but their prejudices and their fears of different people. I am not convinced our proles will vote their interests at all.
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@n1789
Unfortunately, after hearing so much propaganda about other people "taking their jobs," a lot of them are convinced that voting their prejudices IS voting their economic interests.
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@D Price
Besides which, when you refer to them as "our proles" you underscore the very reason that voting their prejudice is nearly the same as voting their economic interests. But even if it is not, that is the way it has always been presented by politicians campaigning.
Despite the few raving lunatics that write incoherent manifestos and then go out a shoot minorities, most Americans want to believe they are not racist. By superimposing racist animosity on top of economic interests, emotional voters that are actually voting their deeply ingrained racism can justify it by telling themselves they are voting their economic interest.
2
Trump's supporters wanted to stop things being built in China in Mexico. That simple. NAFTA II is a mere tweak to the original NAFTA, and in the trade war, Trump is negotiating just to get back to where he was when he started.
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@George Campbell These job numbers do not look anything like where we were prior to Trade War. This is tremendous growth. Additiionally, with wages now growing at over 4% annually, wages are especially dramatic improvements over pre-Trade War/pre-Trump numbers.
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@Dan wage growth is less than three percent for this year.
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@Dan
Your claimed wage growth is too high, and after correction for inflation, is even more excessive.
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Interesting analysis but I have some doubts about whether the economy now is as important to these "swing" voters as when we heard "it is the economy..." Seems like we have become two different sets of voters who are like fans wearing contrasting jerseys at an annual football rivalry game. In other words, emotions seem to be the dominant voter force rather than serious consideration of issues and facts.
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@jeff
I don't buy it- things have certainly changed but not that much in such a short period of time. There are millions of basically apolitical folks in the country who vote for incumbents when things are looking up and want to 'throw the jerks out' when they aren't. What the GOP and Trump have done very well politically is to effectively subsidize the economy via debt. Does anyone think the economy would look anything like it does now if we weren't spending ~10K more per working family per year (1T over 100M families) than the gov't is bringing in? All that spending has kept the economy humming. Of course at some point the bill will come due.... Gov't debt is invisible to most.
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@jeff Most of the comments here _from liberals_prove your point.
2
@jeff I've noticed a 'home football team' self-image in smaller cities and towns for a long time. But now some of the forces that propped that up are falling apart - young people moving away, family businesses replaced by low-wage big box stores that take profits out of the community. From their perspective the world has moved on somewhere else, talking about issues that baffle them, and they want to shout 'hey remember me?' Nonetheless, NOT saying they've found the best solution.
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I find the press's reporting on the so-called trade deal to be simplistic to the point of gullibility. The headline shouts TRADE DEAL but with machine shops be reopening along the Great Lakes? Not likely.
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Data like this may be a Rorschach test for arriving at an interpretation that fit a political perspective. For example, Vermont and Connecticut are extremely low in job growth, as is the entire New England area compared to Midwest - but nothing is mentioned.
In Midwestern Industrial states which lost enormous numbers of jobs in GW Bush and early Obama years, the jobs are now growing again. But the GW Bush and Obama job loss years are not shown in these highly selective data used here.
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@Dan The graph starts in 2014 , which shows how manufacturing went up (after Bush’s crash) and then went down during Obama’s second term. The graph then shows what has happened during trump’s term so far. That is the focus of this article.
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@Dan The loss of jobs in the "early Obama years," was a function of the economy President Obama inherited. By the end of President Obama's 2nd term, many jobs had returned. Notwithstanding, President BoneSpurs falsely claimed jobless numbers (reported to be around 5%) were actually 20% to 30% or even higher, "according to many people" - "very smart people" he talked with.
After being elected and the number dropped to below 5% within 2 months of President BoneSpur's inauguration, President BoneSpurs no longer disputed the numbers. Instead, he took credit as if the numbers had gone from his falsely claimed 20-30% (or more) jobless numbers to below 5%. This would have required President BoneSpurs to have created more than 25,000,000 jobs.
I feel sorry for those who lack the ability to - or refuse to - understand and accept this is only one stark example of President BoneSpurs taking credit where no credit is due. Just as he was born on third base and acts as if he hit a a stand up triple, he inherited a strong economy despite his false claims to the contrary.
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@BDub LAUGHABLE. Reminds me of Murphy's law of work: "Success is just a matter of Luck, just ask any Failure".
1
The article offers no picture of wage distribution, which is another key factor, particularly when considering the platforms of progressive candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Please follow up on this piece with some analysis of where the money is going.
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@Richard
I agree. Wealth imbalance has accelerated under Trump's watch; deliberately I believe. That means that people don't have the disposable income to spend to energize the economy.
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@Richard
I hope the NYT does such a follow up also. As an average American with no special understanding of economics it would be useful.
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@Ted Morton Well, sure, but at least some people now have enough money to spend $200,000 for a piece of “art” consisting of a banana duct-taped to a wall. So it can’t be all bad out there. The one-percenters have all kinds of money to spend frivolously, so what’s the problem?
10