That man never changes his MO. He did this in cahoots with his father back when Trump was in college. Only now he seems to have added short sells to his methodology.
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This article has a really cool graphic! Very well done! Of course neither the writers nor the commenters would miss an opportunity to bash Trump and so in stating the utter reality of the stock market since time immemorial, you somehow fault Trump for an imperfect rise.
At least you had a good graphic.
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"On April 18, 2011, U.S.-based rating agency S&P issued a "negative" outlook on the U.S.'s "AAA" (highest quality) sovereign-debt rating for the first time since the rating agency began in 1860".
Trump and the GOP are running the country on a credit card. Measures we need to correct the economy after his drunken tax giveaway will depress the markets and we will stand up and take the blame for the GOP's greed according to the same pattern we have followed for three decades. But we'll do it because it is the only responsible thing to do to restore stability and confidence. We always have to be the grownups.
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It’s generally agreed the measure of a president has to be based on the record.
Then why does trump keep saying "I inherited a mess"?
"A mess"? Sure ... it's Obama's fault is it that he handed Trump a lousy economy that had created 16.5 million jobs? If you have near full employment, rising stock markets, strongest dollar in some time, rising consumer confidence, lowest uninsured percentage . . . What's the mess he inherited?
Dow Jones going from 7,949 to 17,735 (+123%)
S & P 500 going from 683 to 2040
Unemployment down from 7.8% to 4.9%
GDP Growth up from -5.4% to 2.2%
Deficit GDP% down from 9.8% to 2.8%
Consumer Confidence up from 37.7 to 97.6
Uninsured Adults down from 18% to 11.8%
American cars sold up from 10.4m to 17.5m
This is what Trump inherited. He has created his own mess because he can’t grasp the magnitude and complexity of the job.
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"The only problem our economy has is the Fed" ... so says trump. Really? How about tariffs imposed willy nilly without fore thought? Or government shut downs over a wall that Mexico won’t pay for? Or a ballooning federal deficit because of tax cuts that aren’t paying for themselves? Or a complete disfunction and utter chaos in the WH now aggravated even more by a partial gov’t shutdown? And the nonsensical twitterlng about firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn’t help either.
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Who were the delusional bulls who thought that a reckless president with no understanding of the inter-dependencies of global markets would be good for equities?
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The Trump period has severely undermined my faith in two institutions; Wall Street and evangelicals. I doubt I can ever respect them or trust them again.
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I never respected or trusted either.
Wall Street is little more than a pack of sophisticated thieves, reckless with other people's money and our country's economic wellbeing, gaming the system for their own obscene enrichment.
Evangelicals are mostly proudly ignorant, education-despising, science-denying hypocrites who espouse a "Hate Thy Neighbor"-"Despise the Poor" brand of "Christianity" that's the exact opposite of the message and example of Christ.
Nothing to respect or trust in either group.
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Is anyone tracking the stock market winners of the Tweets? By knowing what Trump is going to tweet in advance, some lucky Russian could make a killing.
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That's exactly what I was wondering, Pete Seattle. Who bought futures with today's date?
trump claims fantastic economic turn around? really? … WAGES ARE STAGNANT!!!
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if Trump were a stock, you would have discovered a perfect short.
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Here's the problem with articles like this. The stock market is a poor indicator of the health of the nation, nor is it the president's job to play the stock market.
The hair trigger buying and selling primarily benefits large wealthy investors, it's a giant Ponzi scheme. Institutional investors like retirement funds are looking toward long term stable trends, they're not benefiting from these market swings.
While the media is so quick link market trends to Trump, he added $2 trillion to the national debt which by far has more impact on the health of the nation, near and long term investments in the country and our ability to honor our debts to tax payers (yes debts in the form of Social Security, Medicare, Veteran's benefits).
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Perhaps we should stop, or significantly cut back on the amount of reporting that takes place about the stock market and assign it to some obscure esoteric corner of the overall capitalist landscape in much the same way we treat the commodities market. When was the last time you had a conversation with a friend about the price of soybeans. platinum or frozen orange juice?
I must say that I agree with Bill Maher's closing monologue this week and say that the real eye opening economic news that has hit me this month is the realization that there are a huge number of federal employees who are living paycheck to paycheck.
Now THAT is economic news worthy of significant news analysis and spilt ink! A "federal job" used to be the gold standard of middle class stability...or so we all thought.
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At this point in Obama's term the stock market was up 48%. By Trump's own measure Obama was twice the President that he is.
Want to see who The Con Don really works for? It's the International Mafia 0.01% Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys cabal that is trying to take over the world - through financial/corporate manipulation - just as they promised in the 1980s. The unfettered, unregulated Harmonic Convergence of Greed. Read the article linked below. 26 PEOPLE - not corporations or governments - own as much wealth as over one-half the population of the world. Think about that. 26 PEOPLE can destroy OUR global financial system if they choose. They can start WW3 if they choose. It is time to tax back their stolen/inherited wealth - not income... WEALTH - so they cannot use it to destroy OUR lives. https://thinkprogress.org/26-billionaires-own-as-much-wealth-as-half-the-world-6948c7e2d411/
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You might also like to know that Trump allies were using a network of tax havens to quietly stash their wealth offshore (according to the Panama Papers). They included the Koch Brothers, casino mogul Sheldon G. Adelson, New England Priots owner Robert Kraft, and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.
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Man, how many times have I seen a comment like this...
[Do you know/Can't you see/It's really] (that) (the) [Tweeter-in-Charge/Republicans/neo-oligarchs] is/are [destroying our democracy/suppressing our vote/taking over the world/gunking up my Twitter feed] (and sending us to [our new Gilded Age/back to the Reagan era]). The (small) amount of [billionaires/one-percenters] are/have [a stranglehold on our democracy/been suppressing us for years] (through [money/Republicans/their power/Donald J. Dump]), and ignoring us, the [middle-class/commoners/people beneath them].
...and insert something about voting Democrat next election somewhere in there. Don't forget incessant capitalization, either. Sad!
Make no mistake that the stock market under Donald Trump enjoys success in an inverse relationship to the health of global ecosystems.
In Davos, Switzerland right now, world leaders are discussing the direction of the global economy, international political institutions, and the global environment, among other things. In the link below, David Attenborough challenged business leaders at the World Economic Forum to "move beyond guilt and blame" and focus on the practicalities of preventing climate change from reaching catastrophic levels.
Trump's fixation on the stock market as his personal badge of virility is doing devastating harm to the ecosystems and humans the world over. It's astonishing that Americans of good intention put up with thie rapacious idea of endless growth on a finite world. The Garden of Eden is gone.
https://youtu.be/xuudPum21nE
The economic recovery has been going on for ten years at a consistent unrelenting determined pace since the catastrophic Bush recession. Yet in this ninth year of the recovery trump asserts he inherited "a mess" and incredibly claims ownership for the whole nine years of recovery, including the low unemployment rate. In truth he's been blithely riding the economic recovery success coattails of his predecessor. Now he’s on his own.
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Take a look at today's ticker. All 3 major indexes down more than 1% and still falling.
The sky is falling. Again.
I think that the market goes up and the market goes down, and very little of that has to do with what the President does, except in some extreme cases. The stories that come out about the market going up one day because investors are happy about what Trump’s done, or going down the next day because investors are unhappy about what Trump has done are nonsense. There are many, many factors that determine the movement of the market, and no one has figured them out. Computer algorithms have vastly more to do with the movement of the market than Trump (who mostly babbles and nothing else).
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Sure, nothing like having market confidence in one of the "greatest" entrepreneurs in the history of the world.
The same one who lost 95 cents on every dollar anyone ever invested with him.
That's a real mark of the "greatest" businessman in the history of the world.
Believe that, like the whole "self-made billionaire" stuff, at your own risk.
The SEC would call that stock price manipulation.
I've suspected from the beginning that some insiders were benefiting from the volatility. If Trump not clueing in someone ahead of his tweeets, then he is making the market move for fun and power, when his job as president it to help ensure stability so our country can thrive.
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A lot of wealthy people have made a quick buck. They'll make even more when they die. But we'll see how much longer this extended bull market lasts. Some people lost a lot in the December sell-off, but institutions and private citizens rely on the income it can generate for them, so most stayed in. At a certain point, the growing economic slowdown in China and the absurd Trump tariffs are going to hit hard in the U.S.. It's not surprising that the market is willing to happily tolerate the mad President who deregulates the heck out of anything, but something is going to go very wrong amidst all this chaos - there will be a recession, or a political collapse, and the fantasy will end, just like that. By the way I loved the graph - it was very clear.
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The stock market goes down on days when more people want to sell than buy. The stock market goes up on days when more people want to buy than sell. Those are THE two reasons why the market goes down or up.
Any other “reasons” for the ups and downs, as stated in the news by “the experts,” are short term and meaningless reasons that “gamblers” thirst for. True investors ignore such “news.” The true investor is in his/her investment for the long haul… 10, 20, 30 or more years and realizes that what “the experts” are saying, and attributing “today’s stock market movement” to is nothing but “noise” that should be ignored. Do yourself a favor. Put your money in Vanguard index funds for the long haul (10, 20, 30 or more years) and ignore these morons on TV. THAT is the way to achieve financial wealth. Add to those funds as your cash flow permits. Never (or virtually never) sell.
R.I.P. John Bogle, founder of Vanguard/index funds.
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I've been in a Vanguard index fund for 25 years, through boom cycles and recessions, through Democrat presidents and Republican presidents, and I have never regretted it for a moment. John Bogle created a product that benefited millions of everyday American workers, yet his life's work is vilified by know-nothing leftists who still think making money is a sinful, shameful act.
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I don't see what Trump as to cheer about. For 2018 the Dow was down. The 2017 run-up in the Dow could very well have been the result of the Obama economy. (During Obama's tenure the Dow went up 250%). Trump just jumped on the rocket and took credit for the blastoff. The fact that the Dow was down for 2018 shows that Trump's policies are not helping the Dow.
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Yellen kept the party going with QE and ZIRP. Unfortunately Powell had to be the party pooper (the adult in the room) and increase interest rates to stabilize the market.
It seems the best time period for measuring the effectiveness of a president's policies on the stock market is after he has taken the oath of office in January of the year following the election, not the day after the election. Using this time basis, you get the following S&P 500 Index results for Trump (and for Obama as a comparison):
Trump (20 January, 2017 - 19 January, 2019): 17.98% gain.
Obama (20 January, 2009 - 19 January, 2011): 50.79% gain.
Yes, Obama's stock market (S&P 500 Index) outcomes — using the similar time period you applied — were better than Trump's results.
S&P 500 Index data are courtesy of Morningstar.
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Well..... yeah Obama served for 8 years and trump for only 2.... Lets compare apples to apples here. Where was Obama's "gain" after 2 years in office? Just curious... hint hint it was negative... severely negative
My post describes an apple-to-apple comparison.
We've entered new territory, where an erratic chief executive who rarely tells the truth (if he recognizes what it is) can tweet and make the market rise and fall. Two years is a short period in the life of a market, and daily fluctuations don't plot a long line. But when history is finally written, it will record, I would guess, the horror of chroniclers who have seen that one erratic individual can wreck the world economy through his inability to understand international trade and international diplomacy. In the hands of the wrong person, DJT, the imperial presidency is a threat to the whole globe and will diminish American influence by diminishing trust in the office of the presidency.
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Show this as a horizontal graphic, instead of the vertical, which appears to the layman to be a continuous downward trend in the stock market. Thanks.
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Who said that a president has no real influence in the stock market, or in the market in general, provided that there is no political upheaval and reasonable stability? Well, we have a runaway unhinged bully in-chief determined to create chaos...in the name of stupidity....and 'Bingo', a shaky market with spiteful tariffs, and then cruelty added to incompetence by shutting down the government; all to satisfy his 'base', his empty promise, pure demagoguery, a 'beautiful wall payable by Mejico'. How did this disgraceful president get all this power (to abuse)? By the complicity of the obstructor in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, unwilling to stop the executive from trampling on us.
2
Smooth ride? Too many people who now have their retirement savings invested in mutual funds, ETFs, Stocks and Bonds don't understand the markets rise and fall but not with the predictability of the worlds oceans. We saw historically low volatility in the 5-6 years before President Trump's election but those days are over. Unrealistic exuberance prevails with many investors who try to time the markets. I suspect the next 5-8 years most investments will yield less than 6% after taxes. Still better than bank savings accounts but not enough for those who started saving late in their lives to enjoy the retirement they have envisioned. As that reality hits more retirees I suspect we will see more people working longer and possibly never retiring.
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I suppose I should expect this from a newspaper that has consistently shown itself to be deeply in the pocket of Wall Street interests, but to come out and overtly credit Donald Trump, or any president, really, for the rise or fall of the stock market is extraordinarily specious and dangerous. It is not the president's job to keep bubble's inflated or to re-inflate or spur speculation in securities. The interests of traders on Wall Street and the interests and protection of the United States as a whole are not one and the same by default.
Consider a hypothetical: If I the stock market hung on my every word (tweet), me and my friends could easily make a boatload of money from it. Would it be illegal? I think not: after all they the stock market has every right to ignore what I say and I have every right to say it.
So.. my question is whether people close to our president are making money off this. I am still patriotic enough to believe that our president would not, even though I did not vote for him.
If you don't believe this president would not do something deliberately to financially benefit his own business interests or people close to him, you're incredibly naive, not patriotic.
This president has shown again and again that he is NOT patriotic - he cares only for himself, those close to him, and those to him he's beholden, including a hostile foreign nation and its corrupt leaders and oligarchs - not this country or the vast majority of We The People.
Empty slogans and tacky hats made in China are not "patriotism."
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Unregulated Greed Over People and management-by-chaos is a surefire recipe for tanking the stock market and the economy.
It took Bush-Cheney a full seven years before they destroyed the American economy.
The Trump Slump is coming; be patient; Trump's just getting started with his nationally-assisted Republican suicide.
There's one thing Trump is good at: achieving bankruptcy.
Patience.
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Bush-Cheney "destroyed" the economy? What is your definition of "destroy"? You're correct if "destruction" means "recession." We've had those before and we'll have them again. America manages to survive. What's disturbing is your rooting for an economic disaster for purely partisan reasons. Who do you think will be hurt during the next recession? It'll be the poor whom you pretend to love, not the wealthy or the average earner. I see a lot of "progressives" these days citing the chilling idiom: You have to break some eggs to make an omelette. So much for their humanitarianism.
The subject of this column is about the stock market's reaction to Trump's leadership of our country
Our country is too involved with the stock market's reactions and how Trump influences them.
The important issue for this (or any) president is that he makes fair minded decisions. The stock market can do what it will after any fair minded decision is made.
"Fair minded" is the important issue. Take a look--Dictionary.
Fair minded--"Having or showing an honest and fair way of thinking".
Separately, the stock market will do what it wants to do.
Much depends on one's outlook.
If the primary goal is something other than "Honesty" and "Fair Thinking" then i pity our country and our world.
Impressive graphics!
This whole thing makes me hope that clever people at the SEC and FBI are checking how Trump's inner circle buys/sells at the stock market. There's a lot of money to be made based on how markets react to his tweets and behaviour.
Just saying...
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Don't forget: the ride ain't over. Hoover was fine for the market, too--at first. Rudy Giuliani is starting to face the fact that Rick Wilson was right: everything Trump touches dies. Before it's over, the stock market will tell the same story.
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Seems like just yesterday when excitable commentators were writing the obituaries for their 401(k)s and wondering if they should jump off a high building and end it all. Trump-angst has warped our sense of time and proportion more than any of Einstein's theories.
I presume law enforcement will be monitoring people close to Trump to see whether there is any insider trading going on.
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The economy and the stock market are now totally decoupled.
This is due to:
1) SEC 10b-18 (legalized stock price manipulation)
2) Graham, Leach, Bliley (repealed Glass Steagall)
3) High frequency trading (computer algorithms)
4) the arrival of derivatives (not a form of investing, but rather paper shuffling)
5) repeal Volcker (use FDIC insure depositors savings for proprietary trading buy a handful of rich guys with access).
The stock market no longer reflects investment in the 'real' economy, things like capital investment in plant, equipment, wages, etc.
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the bond market which is more closely tied to the actual economy is also sending warning:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/18/business/bond-market-risks.html
And his consulting with buddies means they have warnings before he causes swings. Not to mention foreign governments that are listening to his cell phone calls.
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