Mar 16, 2018 · 48 comments
northlander (michigan)
Any one who has listened to the emerald ash borers eating a tree then watch the bark explode can affirm that this wonderful gift of climate deniers must be shared with them.
MaryKayklassen (Mountain Lake, Minnesota)
Even though I believe in global warming, and climate change, both north central Montana, and Minnesota has had some of the coldest weather ever, and in north central Montana, the most snowfall, since they have started keeping records. I grew up in both places, live in Minnesota, and spend about 6-8 weeks, at three different seasons of the year in Montana, now, so I follow the weather of both places.
pupperwupper (OK)
I don't understand why people think the planet will not change over time. Everything changes with the passage of time. We all understand there have been many many drastic changes in the past why do we not accept that it will change going forward?
tigershark (Morristown)
I think we will witness to consequences of a warming climate that none of the fast-evolving computer simulations are predicting. I think the scientists working on the cutting edge of the science would agree.
DeepSouthEric (Spartanburg)
Actually, we're seeing pretty significant winter warming in the Southeast as well. Thing is, it's being expressed in the nighttime lows which occur around 4-5am when no one is around to notice. As a result, we are seeing a wide variety of fall-breeding species moving their activity later into the winter. We are also seeing a lot of pests that used to freeze out now survive the winters here, and come back more voraciously in the summer.
de'laine (Greenville, SC)
Well, I'm sort of glad to hear this on a local level, but not so much on a global level. Our son just moved from South Carolina/Georgia area where it was very tropical (and becoming more so) to Chicago where I figured he was going to freeze his rear end off. The thing is, we are experiencing extreme weather conditions throughout the country, and its not a sudden thing, but seems to be changing in very noticeable ways in areas which have come to expect certain conditions at certain times of the year, and they either aren't happening at all or getting worse and lasting longer, depending on where one lives. Most areas are at least somewhat prepared to deal with what "normally" happens, but they're unprepared to deal with what is happening. I totally believe in climate change and I totally believe mankind has a lot to do with it. I totally believe that the planet on which we live is a living, changing, evolving entity unto itself. I totally believe there are things we can do to minimize our impact and all/every steps should be taken to do that. Change the things we can and adapt to the things we cannot change.
Paul (New Zealand)
As noted, the US is becoming the recipient of more variable weather due to rapid Arctic warming and consequently plotting temp extremes would be useful on top of winter averages. But as Arctic sea ice coverage and volume diminish irreversibly in both the northern summer and winter over the next few decades, it's anybody's guess as to what will happen next to your daily weather, but you can be sure the overall climate will slowly become more unpleasant. If any of these changes causes you additional expense, just send a bill to Exxon or any other big oil company, they have known all about it for decades.
Phil (Las Vegas)
This winter warming has been noticed particularly by the pine beetles that used to be killed off by winter cold. Get used to expanded fire seasons as a result.
Maureen (Boston)
I am a lifelong New Englander and I want to live in the climate I have always lived in. I enjoy our seasons and don't want to live in warm weather year round. I could never live in the South. I love the fall here, and it was so hot into October last year that the leaves turned late and weren't as colorful as usual. And now downtown Boston is flooding during bad storms. This isn't normal and isn't good.
Julie R (Washington/Michigan)
I live in Northern Michigan. In 1990, we were rated zone 3 for planting. We are now zone 5. Ice fishing ended a month early. There's not enough snow to sustain winter tourism consistently.
Ralphie (CT)
I'm not sure why warmer winters are bad. The converse also is the other nine months of the year don't show as much warming. While NOAA shows an avg increase of .25 degrees F per decade 1895 for Jan-Mar, the other 9 months having warmed at only half that rate, max temps, even less. And hat very minimal increase the other 9 months is certainly within the range of error, and much of that minimal warming occurred in areas that are highly urbanized. If you look at much of the country from 1934-2017 (I used 1934 as a start date because it was warm) -- the South, most of the midwest, parts of the northwest, Texas -- avg temps for non winter months have not increased much, max temps virtually not at all -- in some states max temps have decreased. So --- what am I missing? Milder winters in colder states and most of the country the other 9 months -- looking at max temps -- are slightly milder as well. And when I say highly urbanized areas -- here's an example. Nevada shows an avg temp increase of .2 per decade -- but most of that is driven by the southern area -- Las Vegas -- where avg temps have increased .7 F per decade since 1950. And I also wonder if some of the uptick in temps is driven by an increase in the # of weather stations -- more weather stations collecting temps in a standardized way may simply be getting at what the real avg temp is. US had about 2k stations in 1900 per Berkeley earth, now it has 9k. Some areas had few stations at all in 1900.
SCL (New England)
In New England, warmer winters are bringing ferocious storms - blizzards with hurricane force winds. These were highly unusual in my youth, now we're having them frequently. Tick borne illnesses, virtually unknown during my childhood, now are an epidemic even in Northern New England. In the Rockies, beetles are killing off forests and providing fuel for wildfires. In the colder winters of the past they had a shorter breeding season thus there were fewer of them and less dead trees, less fuel for storms. Ocean ice melting is raising sea levels, eroding coastlines and causing flooding. I'll quit there.
Wilta Live (Washington)
Thank you for the magnificent graphical presentation of this data. It makes these subjects easier to understand.
Erik Frederiksen (Oakland, CA)
In a recent presentation ( https://youtu.be/KsecTT1SIrg?t=38m45s ) the glaciologist Richard Alley shows a map of the world ( http://images.slideplayer.com/25/7879892/slides/slide_17.jpg ) with red areas where he says that if we don’t change our ways, by the time his students are old the average summer would be hotter than anything yet experienced, with 90 percent confidence. And that we would lose 40 percent of the ability to work outside in the hot months, with some countries it’ll be closer to 100 percent. (unless you can afford an air-conditioned tractor) By late in this century you’d start to have places where it is projected to be too hot to survive outside, it’s like being locked in a hot car on a summer day with no air conditioning, you die. Next century those areas would spread.
K Henderson (NYC)
maps 2 and 3 are almost inverses of each other. Not sure that helps the argument being made.
JP (CT)
Graphically, they appear so, numerically they are not. The four maps are showing in a simplified way the trend for all data points simultaneously. Not all trend lines are straight lines, an animation would certainly show more. If you would like to see what a full animation looks like (albeit for the past 20 years only) the NASA Earth Observatory can show you that sort of thing.
K Henderson (NYC)
i am sure you are right but the graphics contradict the essay's point and if they are "simplified" to the point of contradiction then the graphics should not have been used at all. This is the sort of thing the article writers should have addressed in the article body.
FunkyIrishman (member of the resistance)
This article and all of the graphs do an injustice to what is actually going on to our entire planet since the start of the industrial age. If you were to plug in THOSE numbers and show people what is going on the measurements would be off the scale and much more pronounced. Only by showing the ''cold'' hard facts, are we going to prompt people into action to change their ways.
Dee (Anchorage, AK)
You do know Alaska is a part of America and has for years been the bellweather fo these changes.
Tom Andersen (Ontario, Canada)
Indeed, what is the data for Alaska? One wonders if Alaska was left out 'on purpose' NOAA's data showed 2017 to be very cold in Alaska, but I think 2018 was warm. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/beyond-data-list... "Alaska streak comes to an end (get your globes out, again) In contrast with the CONUS warmth, Alaska was cool in March (most of us lower-48ers would call it cold). This ended a streak of 17 straight warmer-than-normal months for America’s Last Frontier."
Jay David (NM)
You people in the news media create the impression that global warming is not occurring by focusing on the areas of the world that have cold winters, like the Northeastern U.S. However, in the rest of the U.S. and world, we are experiencing record HEAT and DROUGHT. But that is not dramatic, so it is not deemed newsworthy.
Bill White (Ithaca)
Huh? I'm wondering if you read the article. My impression of this article is that it shows that warming is indeed occurring - even when it does not reveal itself with record heat waves and drought.
Greg Shimkaveg (Oviedo, Florida)
More striking are maps showing the northward migration of plant hardiness zones, reflecting sensitivity to marginal changes: https://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm Some zones have moved more than 100 miles northward in twenty years. Get ready for palmettos (a zone 8 plant) in coastal New Jersey by 2040.
JP (CT)
That's a big impressive part. Couple that with fauna habitat changes being chased the same way, and you start to see substantial impact to livelihood. Long Island Sound currently does not has a lobster fishery. Is it critical? It is if you are a lobsterman. But if it can happen to that one, it can happen to any of the fisheries in these impacted places. We just (relatively speaking) learned how to properly manage fisheries in the North Atlantic, so we removed that risk that was on the fisheries management side. Not sure NOAA or the fishermen can do much about this impact.
Tom Andersen (Ontario, Canada)
This article talks about weather, not climate. The contiguous USA covers only 1.5% of the planet. Then the article only looks at 3 months (winter) so we are down to looking at a very small slice of the planet over a carefully chosen time frame. This is know in the business as 'cherry picking'. The raw temperature data for the contiguous US summer in contrast shows a cooling since the dirty 30's. The story also quotes the winter of 2018 in the data, even though there is still a week left of the 2018 winter (plus the delay in analyzing the data), so there are obvious factual errors, even without looking at the values they show.
JP (CT)
Climate is weather over the long run. 119 years is pretty long, and having direct data measured from the advent of forecasting in the US removes the challenge that skeptics can mount if proxy measurements are used. This is not the only place this is happening, but I expect the NYT likely believed that framing the issue in the US would probably focus attention more. Feel free to look up similar studies of other places. BTW, in the history of mass extinctions, there was at least one where it was due to the winter and summer temps becoming more extreme without much change being visible in annual average temperatures. Scientists look for trends, hopefully reversible and possibly irreversible, and present the data as dependent variables. The critical part is to then identify the independent variables driving these changes.
Bill White (Ithaca)
No, this is climate, not weather. And 120 years of temperature for the entire continuous US is hardly cherry picking (in fact it is a massive data set - hats off the authors for wading through it). And their analysis is based on NOAA raw temperature records, which do not show a cooling since they 30's. The 30's were indeed anomalously warm and the following few decades were cooler on average in the eastern US, as is clearly apparent in these graphs. The overall trend has clearly been of warming. This is equally apparent if you look at the global data set and would be even more apparent if you look only at the Canadian one. And no, there are no factual errors. Meteorological winter, the period for which NOAA reports winter season data, is December through February (typically the 3 coldest months). So it ended 2 weeks ago.
Tom Andersen (Ontario, Canada)
Thanks on the NOAA dean of winter. 120 years for a single percentage of the earth's surface though is not really a meaningful climate data set. The authors then think that narrowing down to the state level somehow has significance! It does not. Why not talk about summer temperatures? USHCN raw vs reported by NOAA _does_ show temperatures dropped since the 30s, https://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Screen-Shot-20... . Its also well known that the NOAA changes raw weather data more than other organizations. The global temperature record is fairly clear, a 0.5 C rise in the last 40 years, and a smaller 0.3 C rise in the 40 years previous to that, where there were about zero carbon emissions.
Mikeyz (Boston)
Please send this to 1600. He doesn't like to read, but maybe he'll find the charts engaging.
erwin haas (grand rapids, mi)
Where I'm sitting right now was under 300 feet of ice 12,000 years ago, and now it's all gone, so indeed we have global warming. I regard the trend as a godsend. Why complain?
mheit (NYC)
Because contrary to your "its all about me and my entitlement" you do not live on your own planet. Mi may be fine but there are other places on the earth that are suffering as a result of this up ward trend. Parts under water, massive droughts already. Let me tell you that when those people start to migrate towards Europe and North America, it will make the current migrations seem tiny by comparison. Are you ready to accept millions of displaced persons into Michigan. From what I have seen of most countries and states reactions to current migrations and their acceptance of immigrants I think you would want to do all you can to make sure those countries on the front line of warming effects are hospitable and keep the migrations from happening.
Steve Mason (Ramsey NJ)
Look at the big picture and how we burn energy, not what the weather is outside your door. We can't afford to go at the same pace of using the planet as a huge dumping ground for fossil fuels. That's why we need a president that believes in science and doesn't tweet about how cold it is outside.
Riverwest (Milwaukee)
The idea that the "Northern Great Plains" stretches to Wisconsin and Michigan doesn't jibe with any definition I can find out there and I can only imagine that the authors have some difficulty telling forest from plain.
Asher B (brooklyn NY)
I doubt that many in these regions see slightly warmer winters as a bad thing.
JP (CT)
Unless of course the colder winters have spared you having the woolly adelgid kill the eastern hemlocks in your state, which will not be the case if New England gets western-Virginia-temp winters. Check out Skyline Drive after the spring - the damage is devastating and only the cold NE winters have slowed the progress of this blight. May not be the case soon.
Asher B (brooklyn NY)
my thoughts rarely turn to the woolly adelgid. but thanks for spreading the cheer.
Mindy (St. Paul, MN)
Don't be so sure. There are actually things we like to do here in the winter like ice fishing, pond hockey, cross country skiing that are not as frequently enjoyed as in the past. We also have a tree pest, the emerald ash borer, that could be slowed down by colder temps.
Sue (NH)
Noticeably warmer in NH from when I first moved up here from LI in the 1970's. Still knee deep in snow but don't get that month of subzero temps.
Tom (MN)
If the NY Times wants to be a national newspaper, it really should make sure that it's reporters know where the Great Plains are. https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/survey/?cid=stelp... Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan are never considered to be part of the Great Plains.
Mark in Louisiana (Lafayette LA)
How is this evidence that human activity is causing global warming?
JP (CT)
Feel free to find another driver of this change that does not involve the late 1800's discovery of petroleum and match the rate of petroleum combustion. We'll wait.
Socrates (Downtown Verona. NJ)
Mark....Louisiana is sinking. Don't let your mind sink with it. http://www.dummies.com/education/science/environmental-science/global-wa...
Tournachonadar (Illiana)
Go back to sleep, America. This liberal propaganda may be ignored. Keep driving your gas-guzzling behemoth Tahoe and Lincoln Navigator and forget about those puny people who try to stop you from showing off your ride with its NRA stickers. They'll be taken care of soon, anyway.
Emily (Minneapolis)
As a lifelong Minnesotan, I think about this all the time. I don't know how anyone who has lived here several decades as I have could deny the difference in our winters overall. Yes, we have cold snaps, and yes, our winters are still very intimidating to non-Upper-Midwesterners. But they are different than they used to be -- they just are. Instead of arguing with friends who deny human contribution to climate change, I put the question this way: What are we going to do? Our MN winters are integral to our economy. If we start losing snow cover, what happens to our winter sports industry? If the ice isn't thick enough to be safe, what happens to ice fishing and pond hockey? What happens to our Up North forests if it's too warm for the trees that live there now? The moose? Maybe we can't stop it, and obviously we aren't going to sink into the ocean up here in landlocked Minnesota, but how exactly are we prepared to deal with this change?
elaine ito (minneapolis, MN)
I'm a native Minnesotan too, and am concerned about the things you mentioned. Winter recreation is a vital part of the economy here. I cross country ski, but only get out a couple times a season in recent years. I have lost perennials in my yard from lack of snow cover within the last 5 years. As someone with a science background, it troubles me deeply. I do what I can, but individuals alone can't change this. It requires massive change at the industrial level.
tom (midwest)
Enjoying the slightly warmer winters up here but it is shortening the ice fishing season.
Laurabat (Brookline, MA)
Not enjoying the frigid-cold-then-thaw cycle. But maybe I'm a winter-loving freak. It's destroying the sled dog racing season. New England once had great sprint races, the last three years we've had to travel to Quebec to race on snow or travel South to race on dirt. My cross-country skis and snowshoes have been gathering dust. And it's not like our "milder" winters are easier on people between the cold snaps and all the ice we've gotten.
JP (CT)
Care to buy a gently-used maple farm? Next generation won't have much use for it at this rate.