Dec 29, 2017 · 29 comments
gc (AZ)
Thank you Mr. Rattner. Thank you Mr. Marsh.
chris (home)
Incredible...do you know what data mining is...Trump is far form an angel but he is not the devil you so want to vilify....or is the end game just about redistribution and who distributes
Jan (NJ)
Wall Street Journal is very bullish on Trump, economy and 2018. Your paper is no longer has credibility. No article on biggest Cyber Monday in history, success of the ND pipeline, record corporate profits and those companies giving $ and benefits to their optimism, strongest consumer confidence in 20 years. The NY Times is totally un-American.
gc (AZ)
Ah yes. The familiar cry rings out. All good Americans must support Donald Trump so the majority of us must be un-American.
tony zito (Poughkeepsie, NY)
In re the unemployment, jobs growth and economic growth, the NYT has fallen flat on it's face in failing to make comparisons between previous presidents and Trump. At times their reporting on third quarter growth in 2017 sounded like it came unedited from a White House press release. Let me repeat what appears at last at the bottom of this op-ed piece. The average rate of job growth under Obama exceeded Trumps so far by 34,000 per month; a look at the chart makes it easy to see in how many Obama months job growth exceeded the fraudulently touted November 2017 figure, and in at least three quarters, economic growth exceeded the fraudently touted figure from the third quarter of 2017. It's crazy to pretend that Trump is not arriving at the crest of a long recovery from the depths of 2008, and not because Obama deserves the credit - it's because a president can much more easily hurt the economy than magically induce a boom. We will see how much damage the redistributionist (in the wrong direction) tax cut does. Then it will be time to assess what Trump has accomplished.
David Doney (I.O.U.S.A.)
Wonderful charts, Mr. Rattner and Mr. Marsh! This is an incredibly effective way to present economic data and is one of my favorite articles to post on social media to get the word out about what is happening. I would add that: 1. The budget deficit and trade deficit have increased in '17 vs. '16. 2. CBO/JCT estimate that income groups under $40,000 will begin to incur a net cost by 2021 due to the tax law, which expands to $75,000 by 2027. This is due to a blend of tax hikes and healthcare subsidy reductions. 3. CBO expects the Trump Tax Cuts will add $1.5 trillion in debt on top of a $11 trillion baseline increase and the $20 trillion existing national debt. 4. President Obama inherited an economy losing 700,000 jobs/month and a CBO deficit forecast of $1.2 trillion for FY2009. President Trump inherited an economy generating about 180,000 jobs/month and a $500 billion CBO deficit forecast for FY2018, around historical average as % GDP. Perhaps instead of trying to undo the great things Obama accomplished (20+ million more insured, great economy, moderate deficit) he should instead continue that work. We've got 4 million in high premature mortality states that would benefit from Medicaid expansion. He can stop sabotaging the ACA marketplaces; we've got several million who earn too much to get subsidies on the exchanges that need help. We can tax the rich more to pay for everyone to have college and trade school.
KMT (Boston)
Now I get it: when they say that their tax cut is for the 'middle class', what they really mean is that it's for 'the middle group in the upper quintile'. That struggling group (those making $307K to $732K per year) get a whopping 4.1% increase in after-tax income. Nice!
Look Ahead (WA)
There you go again, Mr Rattner. Trying to confuse us with the facts. I doubt these charts will persuade eager viewers of the Alternate Reality Trump TV Show, who see each daily episode as another golden shower of gifts from the man with the Midas touch. They know the rich people got all of the tax cuts but they don't need health insurance anymore! Well, unless they can get a Gold Plan for free on the government dime, an unintended consequence of Trump's elimination of cost sharing subsidies, which are sending premium subsidies soaring. And he has China wrapped around his little finger, just as he promised. Did you see the party they threw for him? We should be reversing that trade deficit any day now. And I can hardly wait for the Trump infrastructure plan. Some 80% of the cost will be raised by the states, even though those tax revenues will be taxed again at the Federal level, thanks to the new GOP Tax bill. Brilliant! And now Putin is their BFF and NATO is the new enemy. Mattis and McMasters still seem confused about that with their new National Security Strategy, calling Russia a growing threat. But who cares, Trump is the only one who matters, as he reminds us daily.
CJ (CT)
Thank you, Mr. Rattner, I love your graphs because a picture really is worth a thousand words. Trump would say they are fake graphs but they are real and they show the extent to which he has adversely affected the nation. November will come faster than the GOP wants it to and the reckoning will be heard 'round the world.
trillo (Massachusetts)
Why does everything have to be viewed through a lens distorted by Trump? Isn't the man's ego big enough without asserting more importance to him and his role in public affairs than he deserves?
Occupy Government (Oakland)
Oh, I don't think we're giving enough credit to congressional Republicans. The GOP has utterly caved to Trump. The glaring fracture is they hew to their own corporatist agenda and not to Donald's populist promises. But Donald doesn't object. Any port in a storm. The effect of this administration, flirting with racism and fascism, will be a strong swing in the other direction and the restoration of American values across the board. Republicans will be seconded to the back bench, as is their condign punishment for putting party over country.
David Potenziani (Durham, NC)
This set of infographics is disheartening. Most reveal the erosion of presidential leadership and hint at the accelerating fall to come. The jobs creation graph and wage stagnation are most troubling. The lack of growth of employment at wages that can truly support families threatens to continue their decline. The strong arm of the tax law will sweep a giant portion of productivity growth away from wage earners to coupon clippers who do not need the money. Trump tapped into the anxiety of white people beset by lowering wages and the opioid crisis. As his tax policies and lack of other policy initiatives fail to address these problems, their anxieties will worsen into rage. If we think Trump is a bad president who calls forth the worst of our nature, imagine his voters’ fury when he blames his failures on the other guys. They are primed by Fox News, right-wing radio, and alt-right websites to believe any crazy lie coming from his lips. We have yet to reach the bottom.
james jordan (Falls church, Va)
To the Rattner-Marsh Team. Happy New Year and thank you for this excellent factual analysis. Your piece fills the gap between the President's claims and agency and media reports. I haven't looked at my hard copy of the Times but much of what you have written should be Front Page. The two unfortunate and sad accomplishments of the Trump Administration highlighted by this analysis is: the repeal of the "mandate" provision of Obamacare which not only throws millions off of the health insurance rolls but also raises the insurance premiums of those who have the insurance, AND the missed opportunity that the Trump Administration had to deal with stagnant wages. It would have been easy to have eliminated the cap on the social security insurance payroll tax and with a sharp pencil with a reasonable projection of further growth in demand, it might have been possible to have shaved a few points off of the payroll tax. This would have helped both individual incomes and employers, I am skeptical about the competence of the White House and Congressional tax and economic policy advisors. It seems to me that their reverse Robin Hood tax act almost guarantees that the House will become a Democratic majority in 2018. You would really have to be stupid to vote for a Republican who voted for passage of this Tax Act unless you were one of the wealthy and then, if the very wealthy thought a little about the impact of the tax on the the whole economic pie, they would have also.
White Buffalo (SE PA)
Given that Trump was elected in the first place, we know there are plenty of really stupid non-rich voters out there. Look at the state of Kansas alone. The majority in Kansas has been stupid for years. I wish I could be as sanguine as other commentators but how many times have progressives said it is time to clean house of the Republicans that keep ruining this country for all but the uber rich, and how many times have the voters made sure we had Republican majorities in both houses. After Bush II total failure domestically and in foreign policy those stupid voters voted him right back into office. Clinton fixed the economy and enough of the stupid voters voted for Bush II that the Supreme Court was able to weasel Bush II into office. I can only guess that there are a lot of people who love to suffer and hate their country and their fellow Americans out there. I wish I was one of them so I could think Trump was doing a great job. Unfortunately I am not.
Jeff Atkinson (Gainesville, GA)
Excellent. We've all heard, "A picture is worth a thousand words." Actually, in some instances & for many people, the ratio is much higher. A graph provides at least a little additional marginal understanding while words provide essentially none.
Crow (New York)
The article states that more jobs were created during Obama first year than during Trump first year as a president. That is just a partial true. It is much harder to add jobs when practically everybody has a job. In Obama first year the economy was getting out of deep recession. By Trump first year the economy had been expanding for almost 8 years.
Enri (Massachusetts)
Money is the universal commodity. Therefore it does not grow on trees. Examples of money throughout history: cattle, shells, money, silver, bills of exchange, promissory notes, bitcoins. Money measures or represents value. Money also suffers metamorphoses. It has different functions: as money proper and money capital. Has been used as hoards when the productive cycle gets stuck or for the purpose of obtaining interest or speculating on it. During the last three decades, the ratio of money going to speculation as opposed as capital (used in production) has grown exponentially. The gap therefore between real profit as opposed to the fictitious one created through speculation has increased. 2008 attempted to address that gap. The fed and central banks in Europe and China intervened to save the thing from crashing. Now the gap has increased again. Another crash will come. When ? Nobody knows, but it will. Politicians are only the actors. However, the subject behind these is capital and its self aggrandizing nature. But right underneath all of these there is the work of billions of humans all over the planet as the foundation of global wealth. As value is only created by their labor.
C Kubly (Madison, WI)
I wonder if Trump will accept blame when the market goes down? Me thinks not. Trump will bask in the lime light and blame fake news when the market corrects.
james (portland)
1) Numbers and charts are irrelevant to those who do not or cannot read them. 2) DJT is polarizing: his supporters love him blindly, and his detractors hate him blindly. 3) #45 thrives on polarization because it creates more virtual ticks of attention for him.
manfred m (Bolivia)
Ouch! Even looking at these charts hurts; did we really sink this low? Where to next, the toilet? That Trump is an unscrupulous thug leaves no doubts; but what about the complicity of his willing enablers?
Len Charlap (Princeton, NJ)
The stick market does not create any new money. New money can come from only 3 sources: 1. The federal government thru the FED can create as much money as it needs out of thin air. It will run out of money the day after the NFL runs out of points. It gets to us by federal deficit spending. 2. It can get to us by a foreign trade surplus. BUT we have not had a trade surplus since 1974. 3. Banks create money when they make loans, As we have just seen in 2008, banks can create only so much money. When the ratio of loans to reserves gets too big, the system crashes, This has happened 7 times--1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1929 & 2008. Money chasing itself in the stock market has low velocity. It does not change hands frequently, if at all, in domestic commerce. It is not useful. A lot of money in the market has the effect of taking money OUT of the private sector. Money going to the Rich has a lower velocity than money going to the non-rich. The Rich spend a lower percentage of their money. What's a guy or gal who already has so many houses he can't remember how many & an elevator for his horse gonna spend his money on? The answer is he is going to use it to speculate. Speculation is bad for the economy. That money has a very low velocity. AND it increases risk which we have seen in 2008 ain't a good thing. Since 2007, the velocity of money has plunged. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2016/04/a-plodding-dollar-the-recent-dec...
Rick Gage (Mt Dora)
Comparing him, even unfavorably, normalizes him. His unfitness for this august position is off the charts. I wouldn't care if the stock market doubled, he is the Bitcoin of presidents. He isn't really worth anything and those that pretend otherwise are bankrupt.
Enri (Massachusetts)
The graphics confirm DT is doing his job. He was elected to prop up the power of the .01%. Wages will continue their chronic flat trajectory while corporations keep buying shares back. No productive investment will increase considerably. Stagnation will be the norm while the .01% makes sure their power remains intact. Those who voted for him might elect fake prophet once the next crashes materializes as a consequence of the recognition of the reality of overvalued stocks (Unless they stop blaming others for the intrinsic maladies of a corrupt system.) The party will be over but the drunken euphoria may give way to a terrible hangover. Eventually people may come to their senses and stop outsourcing their interests to those who don’t care about them
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
No, I will go to my grave protesting the near-universal claim that Steven Rattner is a fan of Donald Trump's.
Profbam (Greenville, NC)
The rise in the S&P 500 is on the same line that started in 2010. We are still running on the Obama/Bernanke economy started by Mr. Obama’s stimulus package. Neither Mr. Trump nor the mental midgets in Congress have done anything to change that economy....fortunately. Now with the Tax Cut and Jobs bill, that changes and that bill will force a collapse.
William Rodham (Hope)
I like Steve but he is so far from any reality here it’s literally unbelievable. Steve said trump will never be president. Ben bernacke, not obama, exactly what obama fiscal/ economic policies or even budgets are you referring to? Obama did nothing. Also Steve it is curious the current stock market boom starting the day trump was elected. And finally the data charts are a laughable joke of cherry picked stats only designed the boost the appearance that obama did something. No one believes that Trump hasnt ignited a huge market rally . No one.
cherrylog754 (Atlanta, GA)
I don’t believe Trump ignited the markets, nor do millions of others. What ignited (your word not mine) the market was 8 years of an economy being stabilized by good fiscal stimulus, a FED led by Mellon calling the right shots. The bailout of the automotive industry, and a host of other initiatives to kick start one of the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. The unemployment rate was hovering around 10% in 2009 and by the end of 2016 it was 4.7%. It is now 4.1%. And yes, there was a good rally this year the DOW was up 25%. But not quite the 32% in 2013. And who says what for 2018? Most economists believe the market is currently overpriced so we’ll see.
Enri (Massachusetts)
The stock euphoria does not depend on a president. DT is the accidental recipient of a temporary uptick. Reckoning though will happen as stocks are overvalued. Someone will be blamed, but of course, not him. Probably Mexicans or someone else low in the pecking order just like last time. Speculation though has its own rhythm independent of who is in WH.
Enri (Massachusetts)
ARRA and QE indeed stabilized the rapid devaluation of capital. The Fed indeed helped with this rapid decline. However, it only postponed the final reckoning (or gap between real or produced value and the exaggerated claims of the speculators). Forgot Paulson genuflecting in front of congress leaders already?