The 2022 Race for the House, in Four Districts, and Four Polls

The economy matters a lot, of course, in people's lives. But it's not controlled by politicians. Right now the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to slow down buying, borrowing, and inflation. It's clearly working and the Stock Market likes this. The economy will improve, inflation will fall, employment levels are high. I like getting some interest on my nest egg cash now.

I'm pretty disgusted by politics in general, and there are many things I dislike about the Democratic party, in particular, most of what the far left wants to do (or, at least wanted to do). But the decision about who to vote for has never been easier for me. I'm voting Democrat across the board, even in local races when I know nothing about the Democrat running for office. The reason this is simple is because I'd never vote for a representative of a party (the Republican party in case that wasn't clear) that embraces so much demonstrably false, antidemocratic, conspiracy-minded nonsense. I'm completely baffled by anyone who would.

Being able to plan a family is an economic issue.

I'm a progressive who is most concerned about the economy, and would never vote for Republicans. What is their plan, to cut taxes, social security and medicare? Fight efforts to build universal health care, forgive college debt and provide affordable child care? Their non existent policy is not going to help the middle class and poor, folks, they are totally in the pockets of the wealthy.

I'm beginning to believe there should be a press blackout on political polls once voting begins because I think these polls can discourage people from voting. It can lower morale, leave voters with a despondent feeling like their vote won't make a difference. Too many Americans already feel that way. I've already voted, and I do actually spend time looking at information about candidates, especially those I am unfamiliar with and those running for legal/judicial appointments (a tougher task to do because information is hard to track down on people running for legal & judicial appointments. They often ignore questionnaires and I think there should be much more transparency of their qualifications & opinions.) But I am a regular voter and was taught not to take my right to vote for granted. These blow by blow polling accounts treat our elections like a sport. That doesn't help much. I'll never forget when Carter conceded the 1980 election before voting places formally closed on the West coast. A lot of people just blew voting off, despite the fact that there were other candidates and issues to consider.

The problem is that polling rests on increasingly suspect data. Any analysis on suspect data is bound to be skewed. Polling rests on statistical representative sample of the what is going to be the vote. If people do vote and don't answer the polls in way that mimics the voting behavior you will have junk data. No analysis can fix that. I recommend you revisit the data after the votes are really counted.

Republicans break the economy and Democrats fix it time and again. This time, Republicans want to kill social security. Anyone who likes social security needs to vote Democrat.

If you read the headline, sublime and first 2 paragraphs you would think the the Democrats are losing. The actual results of the poll of the 4 Congressional Districts are: Dems winning 3 and tied in the fourth? Forget reading the polls and whatever analysis is written about them. Get out and vote. This election is a toss-up and it will come down to who votes. The greatest power each of us has in our democracy is our vote. We still get to choose who will be elected. 538 is named for the number of votes difference in Florida, in the 2000 general election of our president. Those 538 votes were the difference btw Al Gore or George Bush being President. I really can't think of anything that shows how much every votes matters.

Education is a big indicator as to expectations from an electorate. As this article points out, better educated voters tend toward Dems, but that often doesn't mean much good. Why would voters elect ReTrumplicans toward betterment of the economy, unless they thought (incorrectly) that gov't spending was the cause, or that our economy was "socialist", or that trickle down economics work? Inflation is a world-wide phenomenon, not caused by Dem spending or any one bill (last yr's pandemic recovery bill is most often cited). Why would they think ReTrumplicans do better solving crime at the national level, when it's mostly influenced by local and state laws, when the party of NO votes on the national level for less funding to law enforcement? With Biden in the White House for the next Congress, why would anyone think we benefit by the gridlock promised by a party that can only complain about politics and culture war issues it can't do much about? The extremist arguments the GOP offers vis immigration, gun violence, climate change, voting rights, abortion--you name it--disqualify this party from governance. Only ignorance and illicit fears--notable in its ads--drive its base to elect "leaders" who will loyally follow a party emperor (Trump) with no clothes. Yes, an uneducated electorate is the chief indicator that something's wrong in our democracy. But when the only party capable of governing isn't capable of exposing the rot, we get the likely results of this mid-term.

I’ve dismissed a lot of these types of articles because they seem to be prognostications on incomplete evidence. But this article really worries me. As someone who has a number of degrees, is in the comfortable income bracket, is focused closely on democracy and reproductive rights issues, and is a lifelong Democratic voter, the trends observed in the article are striking. For people living outside of these bubbles, economy appears to be trumping (ugh) all - even if from my perspective, seeing Republicans as best for the economy is laughably ignorant. Although I’ve already voted, It’s hard to maintain optimism that people will see through the shenanigans. I think we could be a in a lot of trouble these next two years, let alone for 2024. Let’s pray the election deniers don’t win major statewide offices in 2022.

The government you what you deserve or vote. Elections have consequences. The liberals are too lazy to vote but they can complain and whine. The leadership of the Democratic Party is incompetent and have no idea how to win the elections. They do not understand the pulse and heartbeats of the voters. Forget about immigration, forget about easy bail, forget about “defund police” and talk about kitchen table issues. The Democrats are not campaigning. They gave up. I am so upset.

Now we have the proof in a shape of inflation that those who claimed over the last four decades that the deficits don’t matter have lied to us. The problem is the people are going to vote exactly for two political parties that have been fooling us all the time. Democracy is the system in which the people are replacing the current losers with the losers from the previous elections. Why have we such bad short-term memory? Those promising us to fix all the problems couldn’t do it four years ago when they had an opportunity to put us on the right course. The politicians are never focused on what’s good for the country but only on what’s good for them. That’s the very definition of the politicians. If a political party and a country had identical interests, there would be no reason for the former to exist… Those who were borrowing against the future should understand the future has arrived. Today is just yesterday’s tomorrow… From this perspective it’s completely irrelevant who is going to win the elections. Nothing changes until the system fails completely.

This election is not any more about the inflation created by Covid and Putin, about gun control in public places or climate change. This election is now about you. Do you want to spend the next two years doing nothing because the elected Republicans will stop all what the Democrats or the President propose? or do you expect actions from the people that you have elected?

The fundamental issue that Republican supporters want addressed is that, despite 40 years of Republican tax and public policies, the bottom 50% of Americans still hold a "whole" 2% of America's wealth. With control of the House and Senate, Republicans should be able to take the last 2% from the poorest Americans and give it to the top 1%, who now own 32.3 percent of America's wealth. Republicans should be able to achieve this economic objective while suppressing the votes of those who would have been held as slaves prior to 1865, restricting body autonomy for women, and combating the scourge of gender neutral bathrooms.

The article states "including Albuquerque" in reference to the new District 2. That is a little misleading, as it includes less than 20% of Albuquerque. The majority of ABQ is still in district 1.

The very best leading indicator of the future economy is the number of tractor-trailers on the highway. From observation, there are as many of them out there as there are cars.

The NYT just strengthened the false narrative that voting for the Republicans is a vote for more money in your pocket - that self interest suggests voting for the GOP.

Oh great, another “what voters care about” piece, without any discussion of the facts about those issues, of what the problems are and how the policies of the two major parties address them or make them worse. Instead of this constant stream of articles spewing data about what voters consider top issues, journalists should be focusing on the facts about those issues. It’s far easier to just report on the horse race than to delve into analysis of causes and solutions to real problems, but the responsibility of journalists is to inform people of relevant facts that shape opinions, not just report on their opinions. This article regurgitates what the news media has been constantly highlighting, that “the economy” is the primary issue for a majority of voters. But it does nothing to dispel the myth that Republicans are somehow better at handling the economy. The facts show the exact opposite — GOP policies tend to create and exacerbate economic problems, not solve them. The predictable GOP “solution": trickle-down voodoo economics, huge tax breaks to the rich and corporations, and slashing Social Security, Medicare and other items that benefit the middle and working classes. They do this every time they take control, and the result is always negative. The most recent proof of the folly of GOP economic ideology is the devastating result in the UK of Liz Truss enacting exactly the policies that the GOP touts. Republican “experts” praised Truss’s plan, until it bombed.

"A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy." Thanks to the editors who chose not to even attempt to bury the lede in this piece. The Democratic Party is about to suffer not only the loss of its U.S. House majority, but deeper losses that will cut to the bone for years to come. No one can effectively or reasonably argue that Democrats don't richly deserve what's coming.

The attacks on public education are reaping huge rewards for those who saw sowing American ignorance as their path to riches. Ignorant Americans are about to get exactly the government they deserve. For the rest of us? Maybe we can throw soup at artwork and glue ourselves to walls - or maybe we can finally get serious about fighting back in meaningful ways.

When people are willing to vote for nothing instead of something, we’re in deep, deep trouble.

I think it is perfectly okay for the Democrats to be concerned about not just social issues but also about the pocket. What choices do the Republicans offer? If Republicans own the Congress, they will make sure prescription drug cost remains high, if not higher. Would that affect average Americans badly? Absolutely. With a shift towards a warmer climate globally, we are going to see more pandemics from now on. How are the Republicans going to handle endemics and pandemics at the Federal level? Might that hurt almost everybody both economically and physically? Republicans are dead serious against increasing Social Security benefits. Can we nationally afford to get it reduced to a meaningless level? This is an economic issue. How do we address this? If Republicans own the Congress, invariably they would stop helping Ukraine against Russia’s ambitious plan of going after a Greater Russia. If that happens, Russia, the third largest power in the world, would make sure U.S. Congress remains beholden to Putin economically and politically without NATO protecting Europe. That translates to only one thing: Economic and political disaster. Biden admin has reduced our deficit by $1.4 trillion dollars already. Which Republican government in our recent memory achieved any such thing? Do we want all these if we are actually conscious about our economy?

Imagine if the polls actually asked voters WHAT they like about the Republican plan for the economy. Or whether they had any idea of what the Republican plan for the economy is? I notice that news organizations do NOT poll voters about whether they want to reduce taxes for billionaires and cut Social Security and Medicare. Of course that would mean that this newspaper would have to write dozens and dozens of articles about how voters do NOT like the Republican plans instead of dozens of dozens of articles about how voters who care about the economy are voting for Republicans. And maybe that would force this newspaper to do a gut check about their own curated reporting. Curated to minimize what the Republicans prefer to keep hidden. Where is that Republican plan to replace Obamacare this newspaper spent endless newsprint confirming the existence of? Instead of writing stories about how this plan did not exist, they wrote stories about how voters who didn't like Obamacare would vote for Republicans. If it wasn't for John McCain, there would be no health care, period. And now this newspaper has done the same and writes useless articles like these. I promise you that a poll of voters would show that 75% of voters who know the Republicans have a great plan to fight inflation have no idea what it is. But that isn't a poll this newspaper would ever do since it might cause them to have to report that there is no plan. Just dreck.

It is truly amazing how the two parties have flipped: the Dems are now the big spenders, shelling out Trillions for everything from student debt relief (going chiefly to the well-to-do) to various foreign adventures (Ukraine, Jamaica, Haiti and elsewhere) and long-overdue infrastructure projects boosting the Transportation Secretary (and no doubt repeated presidential contender)'s ratings. As such, the blue collar crowd is firmly in the Repub's camp (it is the economy, Stupid). Almost everyone I know is going to vote on the economic issues next week.

The preponderance of American voters are driven by their fears because they are too ignorant and stupid to inform themselves and vote rationally. This is how democracies die.

Hey your democracy is being stolen from you as we speak! Yeah but I had to pay six bucks a gallon for gas.

The original headline for this article was: “Polls in four swing districts show GOP’s strength in midterms." While the Democrat was comfortably ahead in 2 of 4 races, 1% ahead in the 3rd race and tied in the 4th race. Where is the GOP's strength here? The times is falsely feeding the Media Frenzy that Democrats are falling apart and bound to lose while their own polls shows that the Democrats are actually doing well. Early voting in many swing states is quite strong and favors Democrats. The generic congressional polling has also been favoring Democrats over the last week. I think this was a really inaccurate headline by the times. Democrats have very good shot to hold both the house and the senate in this election.

Ah…The Times trying to goose the election for a MAGA take-over of the local, state and federal governments. Lets shame them with a win. Vote All Blue!!!

Just four days ago NYT had a good article on, basically, why polls are nearly worthless and the pollsters know it but are not certain how to fix it. I guess Shane and Nate missed it so here's the link for you guys: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/24/opinion/frustrated-with-polling-pollsters-are-too.html Notably, President Biden's popularity ratings come from those polls. The conclusion you made in the first sentence is wrong, grossly wrong because _at worst_ in those polls Biden is rated as popular for more than 40% of the people polled. That is certainly not "everywhere" unpopular. ...

I'm tired of all this speculation based on microcosms. Infinitely more important I believe, is the FACT that early voting rates are much higher than ever. Statistics (facts!) re. the demographics and party affiliation of ballots actually received thus far, and how that compares to prior elections, would be much more meaningful and appreciated.

Am wondering why the choices on NYT home page regarding this article list "societal" and "economic" issues. Seems to me as a list devoid of the real issues of trust, honesty, fairness and non violence in elections. I can't think about the phoney liars rampant across the GOP spectrum as being worthy of consideration, especially since the talk out of both sides of their mouths depending upon the audience. Further, I don't understand why they are allowed to fly under the radar so succesfully by media folks such as the authors? "Oh, Let's pretend, eh?

Um.....remind me who's leading in the polling in these four districts? Why exactly is this article framed in this way? Rolling my eyes into the next state at the bothsiderism.

This doesn't happen even in banana republics:.Bloomberg: Masked Poll Watchers Are Showing Up at Voting Sites With Handguns and Kevlar Vests. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-27/masked-poll-watchers-are-showing-up-at-voting-sites-with-handguns-and-kevlar-vests

The Democratic Party seemingly will never learn how to message well. Instead of all the abortion ads, the R’s have handed them a gift re: the economy. Where are the ads that R’a will hold the debt ceiling hostage for cuts in Social Security and Medicare. Reverse the decade long win for Medicare Rx discounted pricing. See Liz Truss and chart with the beating the £ took and gilts. Simple question comes up on screen: Is this what you want for the American economy. Infrastructure passed: Largest since Ike expressway system. R’s stopped Biden effort to relieve student debt (cripples many in economic participation). CHIPS bill: Jobs and national security Gun Safety Expanded Education funding Lifting a large number of children out of poverty Restoring relationship with NATO Strategic significant support of Ukraine (McCarthy not so much) Almost every major issue that effects the common person R’s are against. Frame such an ad as the “Shingles Don’t Care” List the above issues change tag line “Republicans Don’t Care Add near end 1) Abortion ie You and Your Doctor Add 2) Strengthening Democracy After the final two R’s Don’t Care “Tax cuts for billionaires and corporations” Discredited economic idea by L & R Nobel Economist REPUBLICANS CARE ! The end

Democrats are working to fix inflation Republicans literally blocked an anti-price gouging bill Republicans WANT inflation, and have zero plans to fix it. Democrats also have created more jobs than any 2 year period ever, have brought more manufacturing back to the US than any time ever, are building the energy grid of the future so oil prices do not impact us in the future. Vote Democrat if you want a working economy

Just once in these types of articles I'd like someone to ask the natural follow-up question: "What part of the Repbulicans' plan is most appealing to you?" These people interviewed talk about all these "fears" about rents and whatnot, but there's never any actual examination of why they feel that way.

The question arises: What is the purpose and duty of an elected Congressperson? Ms. Herrell voted against funds that helped her constituents during the pandemic, voted agains the bi-partisan infrastructure bill, voted against aid the veterans suffering disease from exposure to toxic chemicals during their deployments, and even voted against capping the cost of insulin, even though many of her constituents have diabetes. She voted ideology not to help anyone.

What's on my mind? That the Republican lose seats in the House and Senate, so the Congress can move forward and get things done for the American people and not so much for Big Oil and Big Business. It's time everyone paid their fair share. Big Business and Big Oil has lived off the backs of the Middle Class for years. Right or wrong, that is what is on my mind.

Yesterday I tried to make reservations for Saturday dinner at several restaurants in my area. All were completely booked. If things are so bad economically as people and the media say, how come people are out in mass eating the pricey retaurant meals?

Polls mean nothing to me. Why are they given such weight? Do they tell us anything? Who are the people who answer polls? Something must be done about the non stop election cycle. It does nothing to bring more people to the polls. Instead, people are overwhelmed and check out. It insures that money is at the center of anything to do with governance. All who make a living talking and writing about elections need to step back and consider if what they are doing provides benefit to the country and its people. The anxiety of ‘what if’ and ‘what might happen’ is exhausting and not helpful.

Some of the commenters believe Republicans are more capable of fixing the economy than the Democrats. Which president brought us to our knees in the name of the Great Recession? Bush, yes? Which president brought us out? Obama, despite Republicans’ attempts to make him fail, read, continue or worsen the Great Recession. All to make Obama ‘a one term president.’ Can anyone demonstrate to me that Republicans, if given control in 2023, will put people over party? Their track record reveals otherwise.

I am no fancy NYT statistics expert, but I can read, and the article says Democrats are on track to win in 3 of the 4 districts profiled and tied in the fourth. So I do not understand why the article says that the districts illustrate the growing strength of republicans.

What is on the horizon for the next two years under Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House? Endless hearings and investigations of Pres. Biden. Chairmanships headed by the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene. Inflation will not improve . Climate change will advance. There will be more assaults on our rights. Can't wait. Goodbye Democracy.

It's true that most voters vote their wallet and pocketbook. It's also true that most voters don't realize that historically speaking, Republican Presidents and policies have been worse for the economy and the national debt than Democratic ones. The Republican plan for addressing inflation is MORE tax cuts for the rich. That would be akin to treating your cold with a free country club membership for the richest guy in your town. I already voted Democratic via mail-in ballot (call the authorities ! stage a recount ! Freedom !) because I understand that Joe Biden and the Democrats did not cause worldwide and USA inflation, did not invade Ukraine, did not cause supply-chain disruptions, did not cause corporate price gouging and because they have passed meaningful laws and budgets to move the nation forward in healthcare reform, drug prices, green energy transition, chip manufacturing, gun control (Bipartisan Safer Communities Act) and other basic areas of public policy. The Republican has no plan except tax cuts for the wealthy and a giant bucket of spite, resentment, fear, and negativity for everyone else.....and they don't like democracy or women and girls having any control over their own bodies. Voting for 'change' for the sake of 'change' gave us the 2021 insurrection. Voting for Republicans out of spite helps millionaires and billionaires, but unfortunately many Americans prefer spite to progress. Sad.

Interesting that abortion seems to be most important where abortion is not in danger of being restricted. In other words, its not likely to be a major factor in the election.

I don't believe there's a lot of room for debate here. Inflation is growing, crime is rampant, education is failing, the environment is suffocating and that's just the beginning. Don't think it's going to be tough to vote the Democrats out.

What we see across the nation, if news “reports” are to be believed, is that the media’s focus on economics and not on what is and has been happening in DC with respect to pro-consumer economic legislation means that many voters continue to believe the propaganda that Washington is doing nothing or is indifferent to their plight. In the rare articles that cover the many bills that the administration has passed in spite of hard and implacable opposition by Republicans there is always an underlying message of “it won’t matter anyway.” We know what Republican control is like, but America’s voters seem like blindered horses judging from these reports on their “mood.” Everything we know about Republican philosophy and history shows us that putting power behind already rich individuals and corporations does not and cannot improve anything for the average voter but continues to make the rich, richer. There is no cure, even from Times’ editors, for a democracy whose citizens refuse to empower themselves by working together, but instead fosters each against each in a Darwinian drive whose inevitable end is the collapse of democracy into authoritarianism. Voters looking for a fast and easy cure for their part in a global inflation (from we are actually suffering very little in comparison) will find that a Republican response only moves us faster to the day that a strong man to cure the various ills is cheered above democracy.

I live in NM CD2. The economy is my top concern. However, I will vote for the Democrat, Gabe Vasquez, because the Republican knows nothing about economics. She has a degree from ITT in Boise while Gabe is an actual native New Mexican who attended NMSU. If anyone thinks Democrats don’t put the economy front and and center, they are delusional. We care about the economy just like Republicans. We have to pay bills and put food on the table too. And anyone who thinks that republicans can fix inflation is equally y deluded and is lying for political gain.

So people in swing districts are desperate enough to vote Republican. We know they are giving up something; namely democracy in America. Tell me what they get in return. Will the Republican lies end inflation? The Republicans have street cred going back to before Reagan on the economy; their one trick is cut taxes and cut any conceivable kind of spending by government at all. These desperate voters actually have jobs because of Biden's stewardship of the economy. When (and I'm sorry to say not if) the Republicans regain the House and maybe Senate, even if inflation gets better, will the economy be safe; Biden is steadying the economy in a turbulent climate. He is not a talker, a liar, like Trump and the Republicans; he is a governor: let the man do his job, like he has been the past ftwo years

What I hate most about your graph is the assumption that abortion is not an economic issue. Relegating it to the social category denies women’s reality: Bodily autonomy and the right to abortion are fundamental to their economic rights, freedoms, and equity. Duh.

Gee, have you factored in the effects of our mass media (including the NYT) relentlessly and deceptively hammering the economy and inflation as a big issue for months while down-playing the price-gouging by energy and food companies?

There are realistic Democrats who are not antiAmerican. Excise the part, the tumor of so-called Progressives, to save the whole Democrat party. I voted for Biden b/c he’s not Trump. With Trump gone, I will not support endless loony liberal ideas nobody thought through (defund the police, open borders, my life doesn’t matter, decriminalizing to fool people into thinking Dems lowered crime, coddling criminals, men in sports as women). Progressive policy is No photo of criminals in media — unless the criminal is white. It’s similar to media broadcasts to look for a criminal on the loose and they give you a description of the perp’s clothes not the perp — as if the clothes committed the crime! Similarly, GOP is trying to get rid of its nutcases.

it all depends on independent voters. I presume they are more reasonable people compared to Trump voters. In the Trump world, all issues (social, economic, health, women rights, etc.) become political lies if raised by real patriots. On the other hand if raised by GOP it is genuine. I did not see any real plan by GOP to correct the current course other than impeaching Biden and making loud mouth against democratic lawmakers. Independent voters can show their real patriotism by voting against Trump candidates. they are all unreasonable and cling to what their boss, Mr. Trump, says with no feeling of their own - lack of real personality. let us not let the boat sink in the wrong direction.

Why would anyone think the societal issues would sway the electorate? James Carville said it best: It's the economy, stupid". If we can't keep a roof over the house or feed the family why would I worry about Mary's access to abortion?