Let us all keep in mind that the pathogen is deaf to our defiance and anger at what it is doing to us. If it could think and plot making as ever more angry and defiant would be a nifty path to each of us who act out that anger and defiance.
So don't act out. Instead, wear a mask, get vaccinated. You will feel better and likely stay healthy.
93
Perhaps the best way to increase the number of vaccinated people in the US is for the government to declare that people have had sufficient time to be vaccinated, and that, except for a children's reserve stockpile, all available vaccine will be sent to poor countries where recipients won't have a work requirement in order to get the vaccine. That should bring howls from the Republicans who can't bear to have people they deem unworthy get anything and who will therefore demand that the vaccine be theirs instead.
45
All the scolding here of the unvaccinated isn't helping. Even with mandates and restrictions, there will still be those who resist or cheat.
There's only one true solution for those of us who are vaccinated, and who continue to yearn for a normal, Covid-free life -- a (literally) foolproof vaccine!
We're not there yet, but as long as we're alive, that needs to be our goal.
3
@Mitchell It is not likely possible to have a foolproof vaccine. The current nRNA vaccines teach the immune system to recognize the virus before it would otherwise. But a weak immune system, or perhaps a variant in the ACE2 receptor, means that the vaccine is not enough.
It is the same with individuals who have already been infected, and survived. They can also become reinfected. (And more easily than if they were vaccinated.)
Herd immunity is reached when enough people have strong immune responses so that the virus is unable to easily find new individuals to infect. That protects those who would otherwise be infected, because of the above weaknesses, as the virus doesn't get the chance to spread to them.
12
@Bruce Maier
Interesting reply! Will enough people EVER have sufficiently strong immune responses to create herd immunity? The existing vaccines are better than nothing -- certainly as a stopgap -- but can vaccines now be better engineered to produce such responses?
I've seen little or no discussion of that prospect, though it would seem to merit high priority.
2
Oh my God! This is a virus! Of course it’s here to stay, just like every other virus! Stop living in fear and go back to enjoying life to its fullest!
9
@Cool Guy You mean like the smallpox virus?
35
At this point, if you are a medically “vulnerable” person, you know who you are and likely what to do or avoid re: COVID and precautions/exposure.
At this point, if you are an anti-vaxxer, not much of anything will likely change your mind. You don’t care or have convinced yourself of flawed, reasoning.
At this point, the rest of us who are eligible/able, have been vaccinated and boosted and may still be wearing masks in public and avoiding indoor crowds.
At this point, there are a few more “treatment” options and a better data base for COVID — still subpar on both counts yet and not necessarily readily avlbl re: treatment options.
At this point, COVID appears to be here to stay.
At this point, we are likely to follow the European status after a few weeks, as we have in the past.
At this point, Thanksgiving travel underway, no matter what. People are indoors more. Christmas season pending …..
At this point, after what all has happened these last four years, January 6, the Republican Party decompensation, the example of Aaron Rodgers for good measure, etc ….. how much do you trust the people around you to make “informed” and responsible medical decisions?
We will continue to observe precautions and distancing. I personally trust very few people that far that I would put the medical risk of a vulnerable partner on the line. (Might still request verification even then.)
32
Can we have a Thanksgiving without a public service announcement of impending doom?
Please......,
10
It’s not a pandemic of the unvaccinated. By saying that you are ignoring the millions of people who are triple vaxxed but not showing robust antibodies to prevent COVID-19. I’m happy for those who are “back to normal” but just know there are millions who are still at high risk and are facing another holiday season of staying home.
27
@GJM Sorry but it is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. They are the main human receiptical for the virus now. There are not enough vaccinated people for herd immunity yet.
31
Yes, the unvaccinated continue the risk for all of us. I completely understand that.
25
Driving to Thanksgiving dinner is riskier than a vaccinated person spending time around other people. Avoiding social gatherings because of COVID is just an excuse to avoid people now. Nervous Nellies can even get a booster to make them feel safer.
9
No. Those who are immune compromised have no choice but to avoid social gatherings. Please show some sensitivity to us “nervous nellies”. We have a reason to be nervous.
61
My Manhattan church now encourages maskless indoor gatherings (which surprises me, since it's a pretty progressive congregation). Some of these have been quite crowded, in rooms lacking ventilation.
My objections that this (going into the holidays and winter) is not the time to let down our guard completely seem to have fallen on deaf ears.
I don't know why so many people feel this is all or nothing, lockdown or party like it's 2019.
I don't know why everyone
24
The number of breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalizations or death will still be too high at any given time since vaccinated people can still spread the virus and since vaccination wears off after a few months. Never mind the threat of new variants emerging somewhere on the planet. This is a battle we simply cannot win. Even if everyone on the planet wears a mask and practices social distancing perfectly for life. Which government is going to be the first to acknowledge this?
8
@Ayzed What - there are very few breakthrough cases resulting in hospitalization and death - very, very few because the vaccine works and we will get boosters as it wanes. It's also been proven that the transmission by vaccinated is very low. We may not eradicate the virus, but we can learn to live with it as endemic as the seasonal flu and if more people would get vaccinated - that time would come sooner. But for those of us with healthy immune systems and are vaccinated and have had boosters, life is pretty normal again.
12
Get vaxxed and boosted. Wear a mask. No indoor restaurant eating. If you want to hang out indoors unmasked with others not from your household, everyone rapid tests. The end.
18
This is an unreasonably expensive way to live.
4
@Hools behold, the vaccinated anti vaxxers.
What truly shocks me with this rationale (beyond the extreme distrust in the experts and data around vaccines) is the odd loopholes that always go with them.
Just as vaccines are not 100%, neither are masks or outdoors and should a breakthrough occur, odds of them spreading are significantly higher in your household than of a hour with a few friends. If you want to truly be safe, you can’t abandon your precautions just because you live together.
But we’re talking about odds akin to less than that of the flu, probably of driving regularly — for anyone able to be fully protected of course, immunocompromised friends always a different story to stay safe!
2
You don't win a battle by become weak and blasé! I can completely understand the desire to return to normalcy -- I desire it too, but am resolute in continuing safety protocols -- but it's discouraging and infuriating to drive by bars on a Friday or Saturday night and see it packed with unmasked people.
23
@Joseph a virus that clearly isn’t going away with vaccines that have a tremendously successful impact on reducing its serious effects to below that of the flu and you’re complaining that people in a city requiring vaccines (go LA) go to the bar?
What else did you expect after nearly two years? Everyone to stay home until when? Wear a mask between sips as if that would do… anything?
The people you are so critical of are not the problem, unless of course you mean the potential of them driving drunk — but heaven forbid we talk about anything else at risk to the community.
3
I'm in Northern Michigan in a county that has been awarded the color Burgundy on the NYT Covid Map. Went into to the local USPS today in town with my K94. Out of 8 people standing around waiting to be served, only 3 of us were masked up, including the husband and me - and 1/2 were elderly. Same pattern at the Grocery and Hardware store- The husband and I don't get it-
Luckily, we can hibernate.
50
The exact same situation in my corner of NE Ohio—& at our infection rate the CDC says HIGHLY RISKY, & even vaccinated people need to wear masks indoors. Why isn’t anyone paying attention is my question!
21
My 8 year old son had received his first dose of the Pfizer vaccine about one week before contracting Covid from a classmate that was sent to school despite having an infected parent at home. This happened despite everyone in his school wearing masks. He unwittingly gave it to to my 73 year old 3x vaxxed father. Both he and my mother received their boosters in early October yet my mother has not tested positive (so far). My wife and I received our boosters on the same day my son received his first shot and we continue to test negative. My father does not have any symptoms and my son had a mild cough and low grade fever for a few days. While the vaccines are not the great panacea everyone wants them to be, it has (so far) prevented severe illness in our family. And for that I am extremely grateful!
83
Wow. Those masks really work, eh? But thankfully the vaccines do! Here’s to a quick recovery!
5
@James a Roman Not sure what point you're trying to make about the masks. Yes, one child got Covid from a classmate despite universal masking at the school. That's probably <3% failure rate for the masks, if no one else got Covid from the infected classmate. Masks work; vaccines work. Neither is perfect, which is why we need both.
20
If the virus is not going away, what are we to do
but move on with our lives? The outbreaks and deaths favor the unvaxed.
I would appreciate the daily covid commentary to include references to our collective obesity as often as references to other lock downs around the world.
It would appear more relevant to our lives.
10
I love how people talk about "being over it" and "moving on" as if that somehow affects the virus and their immunity (or lack thereof) to it.
I feel like I'm reading the Onion or Mad Magazine.
60
@Anton the virus doesn’t care that people are over it and life doesn’t care that there’s a virus — no one gets back time for being a little more cautious.
We all have an obligation to a general level of protection of each other but just as it’s ok for you to get into a car, drive around what is essentially a few thousand pound weapon (as we tragically just saw in masse), it’s reasonable for people who can be fully vaccinated to be fatigued by a restrictions and endless shaming with something they now have incredibly low risk of.
Some of us worry about any risk. Some of us worry about a lot of risk. But we all eventually accept some risk with basically everything, that’s what’s clearly happening here not with the crazy anti vaxxers but with people who do their part.
3
It's unfortunate that with all the numbers given there was no mention of what percentages were unvaccinated, partiall vaccinated, fully, and fully booster. Without those numbers, the data are meaningless in terms of helping people make holiday plans.
This strikes me as a rather glaring oversight.
21
And it strikes me as an irrelevancy that antivaxxers like to grab hold of, even though they know oerfectly well that case rates, hospitalizations and deaths are about ten times higher among the unvaccinated.
11
American's are "not sure what to think" because our experts are not reassuring us with what to think.
We'll have to pardon the folks thinking for themselves.
8
Actually, medical professionals are indeed recommending the known steps: get vaccinated, get the booster, wash hands often, wear masks, keep distant from others. It works very well but virus do adapt and infected people may not know of their status. ThE issue is unvaccinated people!!!
24
@Rhaman which experts are still suggesting distancing for the vaccinated? While some things remain consistent about what’s good, the guidance on what to do and rules of what must be done and goals of when that changes varies by miles in cities just a few miles apart.
We need a shared vision from the consensus of the experts about what’s needed now and how we move ahead. Not a country polarized by those who stupidly won’t take a vaccine and those who think taking a vaccine means you still can’t see a friend for a drink in the living room.
2
I would like my teenager to be able to get a booster shot. Seems like she is just as susceptible as an adult to a breakthrough infection now that she's six months from her second Covid shot. The FDA and CDC know now that two mRNA shots are insufficient, and should offer a booster to teenagers, like Israel is doing.
6
@Hools it's not that two shots are insufficient but that the protection wanes over time. Teenagers in the US just began to get their shots so they would not need boosters yet.
9
Sigh.
It’s been explained again and again and, well, again: vaccinated teens are at such low risks that there’s no serious point in taking even the tiny risk posed by vaccines for that age group.
4
Sigh. My teenage daughter visits with my 80 year old parents with COPD, heart problems, etc. Vaccination is about protecting everyone, not just the person vaccinated. And she got her second shot six months ago, so she's in the same boat as the adults now in terms of vaccine effectiveness.
28
Yep. In North Idaho, despite our hospitals STILL being at crisis standards after over two months, people are over it. With vax rates around 40%.
Me? Booster done, masked in the few grocery stores I frequent, looking forward to visits from my boosted kids and their partners at Xmas. Selfishly hoping that our completely unvaccinated and unconcerned contractors don’t get Covid before they finish our remodel in February. (We are not in the house.)
We hung out with triple vaxed friends last weekend. Will host them this weekend. Will eat a nice dinner this Thursday, the two of us. What I’m almost “over” is even bothering to feel angry or even wistful for the days of cafes and restaurants and travel. I’ll just enjoy the good parts of the life we have now and be thankful that my kids have brains enough to be vaccinated.
54
“I just think that people in general here have kind of moved on from that,” said Dr. Volk."
The VIRUS has not moved on.
Those who "have kind of moved on from that" are going to find themselves moving onto ventilators, and are going to KILL others, including infants, young children, vaccinated immunocompromised individuals, vaccinated elderly,
vaccinated chemotherapy patients, and any number of the most vulnerable Americans.
That wouldn't be possible if the U.S. had real leaders and real leadership.The real leaders are locking down, just as real parents put limits on their children.
9
@DJS Ok - but it appears, from what many infectious disease researchers are reporting, that covid will remain in circulation for years. For healthy, low-risk people - how long are they expected to curtail their activities for the the relatively few?
10
@DJS
Leaders cannot force people to comply, unfortunately. That applies the world over.
Fines and vaccination passports can help curb the situation as they have in Italy.
Fools however will continue to be fools.
10
I’m visiting London right now. Masks are required on public transportation and maybe half the people are wearing one. I don’t think I’ve seen anyone who works in a store wearing a mask. It’s pure bliss. When I go back to Chicago I will NOT be wearing a mask despite a mandate. Covid is over as far as I’m concerned. And I’m moving on with most of the rest of the world. We are well beyond using measures like masks, lockdowns, and the laughable “social distancing”.
10
In your travels, did you trouble yourself to notice the case, hospitalization, and death rates in Englamd right now?
Good grief.
23
@James a Roman Great - so you are going to put the employees of establishments you visit in the position of having to tell you that masks are still required indoors in public in Illinois, as if they don’t have enough to contend with.
26
@James a Roman Austria is not well beyond a lockdown.
8
@ Avery G
You may want to check those numbers. New York’s overall deaths per 100K are 292, close to Florida’s 284, not 13,784 (that is roughly NY’s cases per 100K). And by far the highest number of deaths per day in NY occurred between March and May of 2020 with a peak in April 2020 of almost 1,000 deaths/day. In the time before vaccines and most of those infections occurred before mask wearing and distancing were happening. Our hospitals were inundated, including the one where I work. Many of my coworkers were infected during that time period, and several died, along with some of their family members. Since that very difficult spring of 2020, New York’s deaths per day have not been anywhere close, with a high in January 2021 of ~193 deaths/day.
Contrast that with Florida. In Jan 2021, Florida had 179 deaths/day, similar to NY, at a time when COVID was surging around the country. But Florida’s worst death rate occurred in September 2021, when deaths were in the high 300s/day. Also a time when vaccines had been widely available. I don’t know how many of those deaths could have been avoided with wider use of vaccines, masking, and distancing, but it’s safe to assume some number of them could have been.
And back to your 13,784 number you cited. Yes that is roughly New York’s overall case number—13,741 per 100,000, as found on the NYT Covid-19 page. But Florida “beat” us in that, with 17,132 per 100,000. So
I guess for that, you could say “thank you Governor Ron DeSantis”.
15
There's no new variant, and the worst thing is to become hysterical by a mandatory third dose or excessive measure, not related to the present situation because it could create unrest, violence and demonstration in the street, this is clearly not good for health !!!
There's much less Covid cases and death than last winter, so let people gather and live their life, everybody will take the appropriate measure for itself.
4
Personally, I'm tired of sacrificing for the sake of people who refuse safe and effective vaccines. They know the risk, and they can deal with the consequences. I think the words of Ebenezer Scrooge are apt here:
“If they would rather die,” said Scrooge, “they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population.”
30
Yes, because the virus is endemic now. We cannot put our lives on hold any longer in pursuit of some idealistic fantasy that will never happen.
Nobody is stopping you from skipping Thanksgiving this year, so if that’s what you want to do, go ahead. Don’t get upset that other people are living their lives the way they want to.
6
@C
When the hospital beds are full of Covid patients , sick people with other conditions cannot get medical care.
"People living their lives as they want" should not include letting others die for the lack of a hospital bed.
30
Hardly a day goes by when there isn't another Covid casualty around here. Yet no one wants to discuss the vaccination status of the deceased, even when circumstances indicate the obvious. There should be more extensive coverage of the fatality rate among the unvaccinated if we are ever going to get the pandemic under control. It is almost as if those that refuse vaccination on some sort of philosophical grounds are a martyr to some great patriotic cause. There are some amongst us with valid medical reasons for not getting vaccinated or for whom immunity doesn't develop even after vaccination. These folks deserve are empathy. The others not so much.
57
It's like beating a dead horse. Infection rate is directly proportional to the vaccination rate.
The early approach to vaccination was highjacked by the Republicans. Even though the vaccine is the only positive thing in Trump's administration, Republicans, and Trump himself decided to make political football out of it because Biden was bullish on vaccination.
As long as people equate their "freedom" to refusing the vaccine, more people will be infected and possibly die.
39
@Michael Davoudian
American vaccine refusers would be far less likely to refuse the vaccine if they could not enter restaurants, bars and any number of indoor venues unvaccinated, as is the case in Israel and in a number of other countries.
The vaccine mandates which have been implemented by President Biden and by various governors and leaders have been very successful. Most vaccine refusers chose their jobs over their "freedom" to refuse a life saving vaccine .
When the cost of vaccine refusal exceeds the imagined benefit of the "freedom" to refuse to be vaccinated, vaccination rates go up.
Additional measures must be taken to increase the cost of vaccine refusal, such that vaccine refusers decide that the cost of vaccine refusal is so great such that they choose to get vaccinated.
26
@Michael Davoudian - In September of 2020, as Trump was assuring Americans that a vaccine was being rapidly developed, both Biden and Harris, on the campaign trail, were casting doubts and causing hesitancy. Biden: " Let me be clear: I trust vaccines,” Mr. Biden said. “I trust scientists. But I don’t trust Donald Trump, and at this moment, the American people can’t either.” Harris said that if Mr. Trump assured the nation that a vaccine was safe, she would “not take his word for it.” Since the Biden/Harris team has taken over the US has had more covid deaths than under Trump. Yet, during Trumps tenure the democrats and the press blamed it all on him. Now, not surprisingly, Biden is blame free and it's all the fault of republican governors. What amazing hypocrisy.
I'm triple-vaxxed (Moderna). I'm also 72 and diabetic, and I still dread a "mild" case that could lay me up for a week with no sense of taste or smell -- and (more worrisome) could leave me subject to Long Covid.
Enough with the politics and the "what-message-should-we-send"! This is getting old -- and so's all the scolding, and so are the false reassurances. I've done my part, but so much for the "miracles of science."
Many of the self-righteously authoritarian comments here appall me -- and reflect a misguided (though understandably desperate) mania for control.
There will always be those who refuse vaccination, or who cheat. What next? Tanks and checkpoints in the street? Ban knives, to "send a message" to those who'd cut off their nose to spite their face?
None of that will make life safer. As per the Twilight Zone episode -- "The Monsters Are Coming to Maple Street."
16
@Mitchell
There is no mania for control.
There are no tanks in the streets in Australia, New Zealand, or in those of European countries which are locking down.
8
@DJS
Seen the news from Holland?
3
My dad is in the ICU with COVID right now. He is double vaxed but a few days short of being able to get his booster when he became ill . This pandemic is far from over. Do not let your guard down.
79
@J.I. So sorry to hear this. Scary. Wishing your dad and family well.
18
@J.I.
I'm so sorry that your dad is in the I.C.U. with COVID right now. I wish your father a full and speedy recovery.
8
@J.I. How old?
The sentence that really stands out in this story” tens of millions refuse to get vaccinated “, some people just can’t stop taking medical advice from hate radio or right wing cable and the worse are people who won’t stop listening to the politicians giving medical advice!
106
then why are you "deeply suspicious" of vaccines backed by ample scientific studies and real-world evidence of efficacy?
2
@George
Black people are the least likely to be vaccinated in the US. This is not because Black people watch Fox News or vote for Republicans. This is because the liberal media runs articles that make Black people not trust our government, science, authority or medicine. The outbreak of covid was not a good time to refresh our memories of the Tuskegee experiments as many liberal media outlets did for most of last year.
The Kaiser Family Foundation states that, as on 11/15/21, less than half of Black people or 49% have even one dose of the vaccine. This pandemic is tracking the 20th century AIDS outbreak. Today, around 40% of new AIDS patients are Black.
1
@George Don't tar everyone who is deeply suspicious of the vaccine with the same brush. I don't even have access to a radio or a television, and if I did I certainly wouldn't be watching Fox news.
8
Cannot imagine what the frontline healthcare providers are thinking/feeling about now. They know what’s coming; they’ve been through a few rounds.
But this time is different. This time most of the really sick and possibly eventually dying folks will have an avoidable medical illness.
They are unnecessarily punishing the helpers with an increased workload and avoidable emotional trauma.
35
Meanwhile in Texas, I have hardly seen a mask since last February. I work in a packed office without the choice to work from home with people who I'm not sure even own a mask and swear the horse medicine they took protects them. I've been vaccinated since April and am the only one in the office who has been. COVID ran through the office in August and infected almost everyone - most were out (couldn't work even from home) for at least 2 weeks. I ended up with a breakthrough case and was only down for a day and hand to pick up the slack.
When they heard I got a job offer last week from another company, they offered me an immediate 20% raise with a graduated plan to double my salary in 5 years... Should I stay or should I go?
13
That partly depends on how the other company is handling masking/vaccination of its employees, I guess.
7
@Wendy That's the 64 dollar question. It is a corporation vs. a family-owned business, but it is still in the same town and I still don't see masks around here even outside of work.
2
@Texan which is the family owned? Do your due diligence on the new company's protocol for the pandemic. Can you work from home with them if the need arises? Does one offer you more and better benefits - as in good healthcare benefits and more? There's a lot to think about...and I guess it depends if you think 5 years is too long to wait to "double your salary" - even that is relative depending upon your career. Take the longview for yourself as to which is the better opportunity for your quality of life, as well as your income. Good luck!
3
“But even as scientists warned that Covid-19 was unlikely to completely vanish, there was widespread optimism back then that vaccines could make the virus an afterthought in daily life.”
I see a clash between what scientists say and what people hope happens. Having Optimism in something despite what scientists say is not scientific. It’s already been stated a year ago by scientists that the virus will never go away, and also that the vaccines don’t provide sterile immunity. Layering up defenses is key to protecting ourselves. Look about the Swiss cheese model of virus defense. There was a NYT article about it last year.
13
Brother-in-law, 71, good health, fully vaccinated, took a driving vacation and came down with covid three weeks ago. Within nine days of testing positive he died. We are not gathering for the holidays or at any time this winter until this pandemic is under control. Ever heard of Christmas in July? Skip the holidays and save your life. You don’t need any Christmas gifts anyway. Give this virus another few months to cycle through this potential last surge and the gift you may receive is the chance to actually live out your life expectancy.
40
@RS thank you. I am so sorry to read about your brother-in-law's death, however I do appreciate your telling us the detailed story. My family and I are with you 100% in our plans.
10
I don't have an anti-vaxxer in my family, but I have a problem anyway: I am triple vaccinated but even that is not good enough for my family, and one member wants to keep me out of their house. It's sad and heartbreaking.
2
I have the same problem with a similar family member.
Why is no one talking about NYC schools that are doing thanksgiving celebrations? My child's school is having one. My child will stay home. The entire school in one hall. These kids live in multi-generational homes in poor communities with low vaccination rates. It is unconscionable. How they can do this is beyond my comprehension.
21
This is a nationwide phenomenon. Any time anyone questions the wisdom of hundreds of kids crowded together in buildings with poor or non-existent ventilation systems there are hysterical screams that accuse the questioner of being hysterical.
I'm so glad I'm not teaching anymore.
11
There seems to be an inverse correlation between vaccination rate and infection spread. Countries with high vaccination rate like USA, most European countries, UK, Israel, Singapore have high infection rate despite vaccinating majority of their population. Yet the only prevailing narrative is blaming the unvaccinated. What if the vaccine is contributing to undesirable effect like antibody-dependent enhancement and increasing viral load and spread? There are certainly publications on this but we are living in post-scientific dystopia where every hypothesis that doesn’t fit the narrative is shutdown and derided. Interestingly countries or regions which had severe outbreak and population acquired immunity through natural infection appears protected, for e.g India or NYC region where seropositivity from natural infection is very high.
5
@Andy Or maybe it is as simple as people assume that being vaccinated gives 100% protection and no longer exercise precautions.
25
@Andy There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, causes antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). In fact, phase III clinical trials are designed to uncover frequent or severe side effects, including ADE, and this was not found. There has been no evidence of ADE emerging from any of the COVID-19 vaccines, nor any of the coronaviruses. If COVID-19 vaccines caused ADE, people who are vaccinated against COVID-19 would have more severe disease, which has not occurred. On the contrary, people who are vaccinated typically have very mild disease or none at all.
Second, no vaccine provides sterilizing immunity. Some are more efficacious than others, but none are 100% effective. In initial studies, the COVID-19 vaccines were shown to be between 57% and 94% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid infection, depending on the vaccine and providing people followed vaccine recommendations. But immunity naturally wanes over time, as we are seeing with the COVID-19 vaccines.
Third, recent studies suggest that among hospitalized adults with COVID-19-like illness whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, vaccine-induced immunity was more protective than infection-induced immunity against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Some studies appear to show that vaccination plus previous infection may offer enhanced COVID-19 protection, but is it wise to risk serious long term illness or death, when vaccines reduce the risk of both?
12
The hospital data does not support your hypothesis. A vast majority of Covid hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated. That doesn’t mean there cannot be breakthrough cases and deaths. But the probability of being hospitalized or dying from Covid when fully vaccinated is low.
13
Problem is, too many people think vaccines are the last chaper of covid. It's been clear for some time they can limit the damage, but not end the virus. That's desirable, but means you cannot let your guard down until the community spread is negligible. That is not now.
Masks should be mandatory in all indoor settings, only essential travel should be booked, family gatherings should be strictly limited to vaccinated people, social distancing should be continued. Yes it isn't fun. But this is a war. And war isn't fun either.
29
Absolutely agree with what you say. Too bad few listen to us. And this is decidedly not an area where being louder or larger in number prevails. The chanting of liberty disgusts me for in a Liberty Prison we live if liberty means disregard of other people’s safety.
10
Sorry but I'm done with people and all of their lame excuses. They are wreaking havoc on the health care system and they don't care.
I feel so fortunate that everyone in our extended family is acting like reasonable, loving human beings. Why is this so hard for some people?
I wish you Happy Thanksgiving, stay safe, enjoy and treat one another with kindness.
22
There seems to be a lot of overcomplication across the board. Here's my take on it. First, the State of CT and a few others do some good reporting on breakthrough cases. As of last week, the breakthrough percentage is just under 1% (0.87%) of the 2.4M fully vaccinated people in CT. Of the 21,017 breakthrough cases, the percentage of cases in the under 65 age groups (not much use of boosters in these groups) is around 15%, pretty even distribution. 184 people of the 21,017 fully vaxxed breakthrough group have died. This is a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.8%. However, 133 have died in the >75 age group - this is a CFR of 6.4% (2,069 cases). The recent nursing home cluster of covid cases here in CT had a case fatality rate of 12% - all fully vaxxed (reports indicate they had serious underlying conditions and had not been given boosters.) For the entire pandemic here in CT, the case fatality rate for >70 years old is 17.9%. Even with the vaccines and boosters, I think that the risk of death from covid 19 for people over age 70 is being radically underestimated by them as they consider holiday travel etc.
15
The only way to end the pandemic is to break chains of transmission which means a focus on behavior modification: masks, hand hygiene, no open flushes in public toilets, protocol of test, trace and isolate, improved ventilation and of course responsible distancing. This isn’t a buffet where you choose what you like to do and implement it, it’s a recipe requiring all ingredients to produce the intended result.
As for vaccines, they are preventing severe illness and death, but they are not sterilizing, so vaccinating without concomitant behavior change will never be enough.
30
@Watching Exactly, so why isn't the CDC pushing this message daily?
5
Eat. Drink. Breathe. Masks. Vaccines. Duh.
15
I would not want to be an ICU or ED doctor or nurse starting in late December or early January. Lots of unvaccinated people will be visiting a hospital near you!
20
We’re all adults, to some extent. And adults should be held accountable for their consequences, vaccinated or not. If you can’t stand the helicopter parent in your own school districts, don’t act like the helicopter citizen over society. Hypocritical much?
5
It's like a PG13 horror movie. It's kind of scary but not scary enough to convince the selfish unvaccinated to just get a shot.
18
@Mixilplix not enough death and misery yet I suppose. I find the painting "the dance of death" from the black death period representative of what some folks need to see happen before changing their minds.
3
Dear NYT:
A mixed bag, indeed. Note that while cases are rising in some areas, hospitalization rates and deaths are not spiking.
This trend demonstrates the following:
Vaccines are generally effective in preventing serious illness, even though people do still get covid after vaccination.
The effectiveness of vaccines wanes over time, suggesting boosters are a good thing, especially for the J&J shot, which is the least effective.
Questions:
1. What if any effect does "natural immunity" play in driving this covid pattern? Why isn't the CDC investigating this question? Why is this question so partisan?
2. Why are cases spiking in states that have continued much stricter measures, while Florida -- which has spurned lockdowns and mandates -- has the lowest rate of any state, and this success has continued for two months now?
This suggests that the correlation between mandates and covid cases is weak, if it exists at all, and these waves of infection perhaps reflect seasonal changes, and a two month viral cycle, followed by infection elsewhere.
Thoughts?
8
@Jorge Most likely Florida is benefiting from nice weather that isn't driving people indoors. Florida also fudges its Covid numbers (extensively reported last Spring). Over the course of the pandemic, Florida's death and hospitalization rates have been horrible.
20
FL is just one data point. N=1. What about looking at China? 1 death over the last 90 days strict control?
4
Sorry, Jorge, I quit after the nonsense about hospitalization and death rates not spiking.
It’s not just that you refuse to read the graphs, which are worst in Red states and Trump-voting counties where winter’s arrived; it’s that you refuse to accept that the vaccines are keeping more people out of hospitals.
8
Remember to always crack open the windows for gatherings to add that extra level of ventilation protection!
15
The regional surge is still moving through the country. Entirely predictable.
8
"Vaxxed to the max" has to be the trope of the moment, and various stages of vaccination status has to complicate public health advice. The increase in children and young adults getting infected has to spur a new, better targeted campaign, though.
6
"Kirk Burrows, 26, a paramedic in Unity, Maine, who said he planned to stay home for another Thanksgiving. 'I think it’s going to be worse this year.'”
Same here, Kirk; we'll have no Thanksgiving celebration this year either.
It's just gotten cold in our part of the Midwest, and I think we can expect a significant uptick in the number of cases by the beginning of next week.
20
A big dilemma in my family for Thanksgiving...The 8 adults are vaccinated (since the spring) but only 2 of us got the booster. The kids under 11 are not vaxed. One boostered adult, Great Grandma, will turn 99 on that day. Does she go or stay home? What to do?
2
@ASKWHY Based on our local experience - Great Grandma should participate via Zoom. We have several friends who are/were in some form of Senior Care -- being over 90 seems to be a major red flag recently, even if vaccinated. For the ones where COVID became an issue, exposure to the general population was the deciding factor Good Luck !!!
8
My friend’s father, fully vaccinated but not boosted, turned 100 in October and experienced a break-through infection. Stayed in hospital over night, monoclonal antibody treatment, sent home next day. Took 2 weeks to recover, but survived.
2
@ASKWHY Can you arrange for an outdoor space? outdoor dinning and kids all wear masks and none of the kids stay over with great grandma. I think that is best you can do.
A good many people are simply done listening to public health experts and politicians. The goalposts have been moved too many times.
4
We’re they moved by malicious intent, or because the science is evolving on a new virus? Most rational and responsible adults understand the need to adapt as more is known and understood about COVID. You may be done dealing with it, but it’s definitely not done dealing with you and everyone else.
23
This is medicine, not math, people. It’s not 2 2 always equals 4. It’s a new virus. Why is it so hard to understand that yes, advice is going to change as we learn more about it and as the virus itself changes? People are being extremely unrealistic about this.
23
It’s almost as if this were a NOVEL virus that we haven’t faced before and scientists were changing advice based on the latest available information. How dare they?!
19
Easy but Ineffective Ways to Increase Vaccination:
1. Have the same politicized figures repeat that "it's safe and effective" 100 more times.
2. Repeat the same line of "follow the science" 200 more times.
3. Ridicule, mock, and shame those who are not vaccinated on national television.
Difficult but Potentially Effective Ways to Increase Vaccination:
1. Replace Fauci with more neutral and apolitical messengers who can connect with those outside of liberal circles.
2. Acknowledge government missteps in the past, uncertainties about vaccine durability and the need for future variations, but lay out the pros and cons of vaccination in a nuanced manner.
3. See the shared humanity in others through patience, listening, and compassion.
(Based on from Andy Slavitt's conversation with Hugh Hewitt on In the Bubble Podcast)
9
A short stocky fellow nicknamed Wild Bill who boxed as a young man had a cauliflower ear and a son, a HighSchool graduate still living at home.Bill set down some rules for the son so life might be more tolerable for everyone. The son bristled .He was a man now. About a week later Wild Bill stopped by the store with a big grin . His son had signed up for the Army.Nobody ,especially his father was going to tell him what to do.
6
Here in liberal DC the mayor has removed the mask mandate for some spaces and I think it makes the most sense. We still have people getting COVID, but we still have people getting the flu, too. Virtually no one is dying (even unvaccinated children) and so it is time for people to make decisions re their own risk tolerance. In places where people *have to* be, eg schools, local govt bldgs, daycare centers, masks are still required, but the city isn't mandating masks in restaurants, bars, sports arenas, etc. I hope she can stick to this policy and only adjust if we see some wild swing in deaths. Not in cases, but deaths.
1
@jen Here in liberal DC, cases have gone up from a 7-day average of 82 to 94. Earlier in the month the DC Health Director was for keeping mask mandates.
That suddenly changed as Mayor Bowser announced a run for a third term. Her pandering move is in complete opposition to CDC guidelines and against the request of the City Council, which she ignored. She requires masks of DC govt workers -- to keep them "safe" -- but the rest of us can get sick on our own.
Here in liberal DC.
5
Wish the authors would have mentioned testing as part of a risk reduction strategy.
Why aren't rapid antigen tests cheaper?? or FREE??
(wasn't that supposed to be happening?)
If local governments sent every household a 10 pack of free antigen tests, you could test before going to a gathering!! Or before sending a kid to school with a cough.
We're so stunted and backward in our public health compared to the rest of the rich countries.
22
Yes! Dr. Michael Mina has been a fervent advocate of this since the beginning of the pandemic. In Europe rapid tests can be purchased for less than €2 each. Our public health system is failing us in so many ways.
12
“This thing is no longer just throwing curveballs at us — it’s throwing 210 mile an hour curveballs at us,” said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota. He said that the virus had repeatedly defied predictions and continues to do so.
This virus is not following a standard playbook because it’s not a standard virus. That said, there are many things that can be predicted, but those messages have not been well coordinated, nor are they popular.
1) Weather is a key factor influencing transmission. Extreme heat and extreme cold drive people indoors and limit ventilation options. If people don’t use masks indoors, which is unfortunately common with family and friends, transmission risk increases.”
2) The vaccines never have been, nor will be sterilizing. All the research on RNA viruses confirms this. It’s impossible to vaccinate against an RNA virus because of how fast and imprecisely they replicate. Go to Google scholar and read the primary research on RNA viruses, quasi species mutant swarms, and vaccine technology.
3) If you’re infected—whether vaxxed or unvaxxed—you can transmit the virus to others. There is plenty of primary research showing equivalent viral loads in vaxxed and unvaxxed patients. Since the virus transmits before symptoms arise, and only kills weeks after infection, anyone infected who doesn’t use a mask and practice social distancing will infect others.
4) Pandemic only ends when all chains of transmission are broken.
13
@Watching Not mentioned, for the vaccine to work, a strong immune system is required. There may be other factors, such as ACE2 receptors that are different and allow the virus to more easily infect.
1
Table from the NYT Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count (11/21/2021) for Recent Trends
The correlation of the Fully Vaccinated (states plus DC) and:
Cases Daily Avg. per 100,000 is +0.11
14-day change is +0.47
Hospitalized Daily Avg. per 100,000 is -0.25
Hospitalized Daily Avg. 14-day change is +0.29
Deaths Daily Avg. per 100,000 is -0.40
If the vaccinations are effective, why the positive correlations?
1
@Tom Ecological fallacy?
Not unusual for aggregate level correlations (e.g. state level) to differ in magnitude or even direction from correlations based on individual level data (clinical trials).
For me, its not about the politics, who said what or what others are doing. It's all about the dollars and the aftermath for my family. I have no wish to be stuck with a large medical bill (which I know will come to me) or suffer the after effects of possible long-covid (which would impact my family) for many months/years. I prefer the cotton-y mask to ventilator. And I have no wish to give it to someone else. A friend died after 7 weeks on a ventilator and the family is devastated. It's just that simple.
23
Here is a slightly different take on the data -- I think most folks understand (and accept/reject) vaccination, boosters, masks et al. That seems to be the state of affairs we have settled in to. How much info is there on life after COVID ? There has been some discussion of severe lasting effects -- How valid is that ? If we drop into a state where COVID is accepted as "just another flu" that you get over only to find out it has severe long term effects that would be a sad postlude. Should we devote energy to capturing and communicating that ?
12
@Jim Baugh More people have died from COVID this year with the vaccine available than died in 2020 with no vaccine. We should be devoting energy to capturing and communicating that the unvaccinated accounted for the overwhelming majority of these deaths. My question is what would the numbers be if Trump had been re-elected and endorsed "his" vaccine. Vastly different, I suspect.
7
I’m A veteran of a mild breakthrough case of Covid, and I can attest to the long-lasting effects, including raspiness, fatigue and serious corruption of one’s taste buds. It makes me extra grateful that I won’t have to travel for Thanksgiving, and be riding with many people whose major corruption will be ignorance of science and their fellow men and women.
6
The reason is very simple too many people are not wearing masks and too many are not vaccinated but are still out in public spreading disease. I recently traveled from MD to CA to return to my old home now that I am triple vaxxed. Along the way I wore my N95 mask and eye protection since I am in a high risk group. In place after place in red counties few people were masked indoors and in blue states many people were not masked. The data from around the world is now very clear. masks are effective at limiting the spread of this disease. Not perfect, but effective enough that combined with vaccination we could snuff out the pandemic. This fact if widely recognized would allow us to end the pandemic in a few months. It is time for stringent public health measures, mandatory vaccination and enforced restrictions on travel by unvaccinated people meaning no vax no public transportation. Any police officer or other public official in a contact job where a person MUST interact with the public, that official may not refuse vaccination and keep their job. If not vaccinated they are violating people's Federal constitutional right not to be involuntarily subjected to serious harm by an officer. That means Federal law overrides all state objections and an officer who refuses vaccination cannot be allowed to serve. No matter what any State official says.
43
@Federalist And yet vaccinated people still catch and transmit the virus, and people with masks can still catch and transmit the virus
As for people getting fired, do you really want to fire people or ban them from public because they are allergic to PEG or polysorbate?
2
@Federalist
The CDC estimated that 80% of Americans have immunity from full or partial vaccination or prior infection. That was 2 weeks ago. The percentage is higher today as many Americans are getting vaccinated daily.
It's time to move on from blaming the unvaccinated.
4
@Federalist Why is Florida so low with no masks and schools wide open? It's been the lowest state for a long stretch, how does no masks equate to the lowest cases??
4
Countries need to finally realize that too many people are only concerned with themselves and will never freely make the right decision. Make vaccination a mandate for ALL.
46
Agreed. Time to quit messing around.
7
Several weeks ago I read in well-researched articles that vaccinated people with asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 can transmit the virus while shedding, just as easily as unvaccinated people. It follows that vaccination does not stop transmission, and therefore unvaccinated children are at risk from vaccinated adults, and vaccinated adults can spread the virus to each other. This risk factor, and how to mitigate it, is not mentioned in the article nor signaled by any of the experts.
What am I missing? Is the risk so insignificant that experts are saying, “go ahead, get a breakthrough infection, it probably won’t kill you or your kid?” Or have journalists just moved on?
Our family has grandchildren under 5, and vaccinated immune-compromised elders. We are taking the same pre-vaccination precautions as last year, eating outdoors for Thanksgiving, and regretfully not celebrating with family members who have been mingling or living with unvaccinated folks.
18
@Lee Sennish I am shocked that most people here simply do not care — even my professor colleagues. Instead, they keep on suggesting that masks are no longer necessary because our university has done well. How stupid! I am a libertarian in many ways, but I am appalled by the job the United States did in the pandemic. Yes, despite excuses and denials, we did worse per capita than much poor nations like India. Arrogance and confidence are stupid in front of a virus.
28
@Lee Sennish It's true that the viral load of infected a vaccinated adult can be as high as that of an unvaccinated adult. However, it's much less likely for a vaccinated adult to become infected in the first place. Additionally, a vaccinated adult with a breakthrough case will generally clear out the virus more quickly than an unvaccinated adult. In other words, the vaccinated will shed virus for a much shorter duration than the unvaccinated.
While vaccinated adults still pose a risk of transmitting COVID, getting vaccinated greatly reduces the risk of being a vector.
26
@Lee Sennish Yes, it is possible for a vaccinated person with a breakthrough infection to infect those around them. But the viral load of a vaccinated person with a breakthrough infection is usually a tiny fraction as compared to an infected, unvaccinated person.
So yes, you should take all of the precautions that make you feel safe, and if you want to mingle with unvaccinated kids, be mindful that they've yet to get their vaccine.
I mean, you already have the answers in your hands, what more do you require?
5
The real problem is that these vaccines aren't very good. They don't block transmission, don't prevent you from getting the virus, and 6 months after you take them you need another dose. If the focus was on improving the vaccines, instead of pretending they are so great, maybe we'd make some headway.
19
@Roberta The vaccines are not perfect, but if you look at who is being hospitalized due to COVID right now, it is primarily the unvaccinated. (1) It's clear that the vaccines are reducing severe symptoms of the disease. (2) The vaccinated are also far less likely to catch COVID in the first place. (3) Lastly, the vaccinated who do catch COVID clear the virus out much more quickly than the unvaccinated, so they contagious for a much shorter period of time.
30
@Roberta
The purpose of the vaccines are to markedly reduce the possibility of winding up on a ventilator. Surviving a protracted period of mechanical ventilation decreases with each day especially if extraordinary maneuvers are required: prone positioning, high vent settings, blood pressure support. Surviving the ICU is a job unto itself and an anguished filled journey for your closest family and friends.
The vaccines do not stop transmission and so far you need three doses. But taking the vaccine is so much easier than learning to walk, talk and hoping recognize relatives after weeks in the ICU.
27
@EK It's also not children who are being hospitalized despite all the media lies trying to make you believe that. Vaccinated elderly are at higher risk than unvaccinated kids.
4
Cases heading up to where they were last year. Daily deaths nearly the same. Restrictions? None. Based on these facts alone the post-holiday period could be quite rough
15
@B Totally agree. And in my school, we are talking about lifting the mask mandate because case numbers are low (a few hundred). I am appalled but my voice in the minority is silenced by the reckless and illogical wishful thinking.
6
I’m grateful not to be traveling and will be enjoying our comfortable home for the holidays with as little interaction as possible with crowds. (Triple-vaxxed, still wearing masks indoors, blue state.)
By the way, I have a family member who cannot be vaccinated because she has a life-threatening allergic reaction to the serum in which the drug is carried - true for all the vaccines. To me, that medical reason the only legitimate reason not to be vaccinated. She is hopeful that it will be available in a pill form without that serum.
4
In my family, all but the youngest have been vaccinated. The oldest hare gotten boosters. At this point, we have done everything we can to protect ourselves and others. We are comfortable. We will spend our holidays with no modifications whatsoever. Traditionally, we all go to Fashion Island a festive outdoor mall suited for our climate in Southern CA. We will be attending Christmas parties with vaccinated friends.
Are our risks zero ? No. But we have mitigated them to the point where we are more likely to get into a car accident than get seriously ill from the virus. That’s good for us.
Astonishingly, I have been judged by some who are far more risk adverse than me. Apparently, they want me to conduct myself so that they feel no risk from my behavior. Once I have taken all reasonable steps, I am no longer responsible for the fears of others.
So, my family and I plan to have a good old fashioned extended Italian family holiday. I wish all others a happy holiday, however they choose to spend it.
15
Yes, we can "diminish covid" but the reality is this won’t end until we accept that it doesn’t, in fact, end. last summer, the news media made the mistake of messaging that if you are vaccinated, you cannot get a covid infection. This was never the purpose of the vaccine, and the ongoing narrative of asymptomatic/mild "breakthrough" cases will make it difficult to move forward with a clearly defined goal in a highly vaccinated area like New England. The transition to endemic viral disease was always going to involve a difficult psychological step to acceptance. Many of us are still in the "zero covid" denial stage.
When it comes to mask mandates, social distancing, or any other covid restrictions, what is the limiting principle? Or, putting it differently, under what conditions can we get back to normal? Based on the public health logic currently in vogue, I worry that the answer is never and that we are entering a new regime–the tyranny of tiny risks as one observer said.
What is the goal here, exactly? If fully vaccinated people getting mild breakthrough cases is supposed to be the risk, what does safe look like? The last two months of public health messaging has served to terrify vaccinated people and makes the unvaccinated doubt the effectiveness of the covid vaccines. Political leaders need to find a way out of this box going forward.
23
@dtrain1027 1/423 died from Covid in the United States, with half of the deaths occurring this year and 85% vaccinated among our vulnerable senior citizens. I am not sure how to see this as a “tiny risk.” I am not arguing for zero covid, but I see around me this overall trend to stop caring. Lift mask requirement. Ignore it. Death hits only once and until it hits, everything is fine.
7
@YL
Since March of 2020 1/65 died from all causes in the US. There is huge age gradient to these deaths...most are over 75 years old. Covid has a similar age gradient. Covid is a public health emergency for the elderly. For those under 55, the statistical risk is indeed tiny. If you are vaccinated, the risk is microscopic...lower than many other risks we tolerate in our daily lives.
Everyone has been offered a vaccine and can easily still get one for free. Boosters are available. Let's ditch the restrictions and live like we did in the olden days.
4
By this point, anybody 5 and above who wanted a vaccine got one. We just need to move on with our lives and accept the fact that the virus will be with us forever.
I'm done with masks and quarantines. My children and I have done our part. I'm not canceling another school year,Thanksgiving, or Christmas to protect unvaccinated folks.
12
@Philippe Girard You need to think through your plans more carefully. Vaccinated persons can become infected, even more so if they don't wear masks and infect others.
We live in a rich country by world standards, Most of us have lots to be thankfully for on Thursday. Despite some expected shortages, there will be plenty of food and drink on the table. Covid-19 has caused the death of 800,000 Americans and millions of others around the world.
Vaccinated people can safely socialize with other vaccinated people, but they should wear masks except at the dinner table, These precautions are not exactly onerous, given the continued and increasing infection rates. Americans pride themselves on being tough and determined. Maybe we should strive to live up to that view of ourselves.
4
@Philippe Girard --Why do you think Covid will be with us forever? Vaccinations have controlled many diseases that used to be commonplace. Polio, chicken pox, diphtheria, measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough, tetanus, and others are very rare, or extinct because of vaccinations. There's no reason to think that if enough people get vaccinated, Covid will not also become very rare or disappear altogether.
1
I am not sure if 30% increase can be called ticking up. More like a beginning of a new surge. Most of the dead will be unvaccinated, but they will clog hospitals all over again, stress the health care system, deny access to healthcare to those who need it for other reasons, the works.
Time to take covid out of the healthcare system. If you show up with covid with no evidence of vaccination, you ride this disease out on your own. Enough.
22
@mf
How about a Covid-19 treatment facility run only by willfully unvaccinated healthcare workers, only for treating willfully unvaxxed patients.
11
A pandemic risk mitigation response run by the American holiday season. The whole notion of it cracks me up. We rigorously adhere ( in some places) to the most stringent protocols : masks indoors, seeking vaccination, social distancing, avoiding crowds etc.,) but then a holiday is on the horizon and we decided ( routinely now) to drop all of that to socialize. I miss family gatherings as much as the next person but the notion that a holiday provides a "break" from risk mitigation is ludicrous.
16
We just avoid the whole catastrophe by celebrating Friendsgiving in late October, where we spend time with the people we want to be with, gather around the fire outside, and don’t have to travel. This Thanksgiving will be at home with a lighter version of Thanksgiving dinner and football on TV.
9
We're not going to get rid of a virus that half the country simply does not fear, with vaccines alone. Officially, 47 million Americans are not vaccinated against COVID, and the real number including those with false documents is surely higher than that.
With so many unvaccinated people, the initial pandemic response measures of masking and distancing are still necessary for the foreseeable future.
9
@Richard Ralph
Two weeks ago, the CDC estimated that 80% of Americans had some immunity either from partial or full vaccination and prior infection. Likely to be higher now.
8
If this is the time when "health officials have largely stopped telling people to skip celebrations", then it is the time for people to start using their head.
Stay home.
Give the fam an internet kiss and tell them that you'll see them next Memorial Day, 2022.
There are 770,000+ dead in the last year and a half.
Do we really want that number to go to a million by New Year's?
The very best that we can hope for is that there is no new mutation again like what has happened with Delta.
Do your part.
12
@Bothwell telling people to stay home is something we’ve been saying since the start. It didn’t work when it should have and it sure won’t work now.
Vaccines are amazingly effective and with boosters, even more so months later. The message has to reflect that.
Telling people that (and putting things in place to help ensure them) is a far better path to reduce deaths / hospital impact than believing that people will voluntarily isolate for another half year. That’s doubly true since the unvaccinated who are by far most likely to die are, by definition, not going to listen anyways.
Masking up and distancing before vaccines were available to all and getting them when they were, wearing that mask again at the doctor or in a high risk setting, is our part. Punishing the vaccinated when the data shows the results will not get us anywhere; but we can always choose to be even safer if we want.
5
I turned to FOX last night and watched the 10 pm host spewing about the mandates, constitutional rights, closing schools, and how the administration is turning authoritarian. Never mind the attempted coup on 1-6. This is what we are up against.
27
@Steve
You have to admit, though, that it's kind of ironic how Democrats are so up in arms about the Republicans' lack of respect for the US Constitution, when the Dems' own sacred cow of federal COVID vaccine mandates is a clear case of constitutional overreach.
3
@Richard Ralph. Republicans endanger us at THE most important point - the integrity of elections. Lose that and we're a banana republic, and Republicans seem to be doing all possible to move us there. Issues of how to balance individual freedom against the protection of others from endangerment are important and complex but trivial compared to the radical threat posed by today's Republican party to democracy and freedom in America.
5
I'm triple-vaxxed (Moderna). I'm also 72 and diabetic, and I still dread a "mild" case that could lay me up for a week with no sense of taste or smell -- and (more worrisome) could leave me subject to Long Covid.
Enough with the politics and the "what-message-should-we-send"! This is getting old -- and so's all the scolding, and so are the false reassurances. I've done my part, but so much for the "miracles of science."
3
@Mitchell science didn’t cure your ability to fight off every cold and flu either and neither are something I want myself even manny decades younger. But that doesn’t mean science failed us.
In less than a year, we got a vaccine that drastically reduced risk of death, serious cases and yes, long covid too. That’s a pretty amazing miracle if you ask me.
6
@Mitchell I’m 46. The thought of suffering through “long covid” symptoms is more terrifying to me than death, even. I think dealing with a post-Covid-19 cognitive dysfunction would make life extraordinarily difficult for me, and I am absolutely not willing to take many risks that could introduce that possibility into my life. Nobody knows how this disease might affect them if they get it. For anyone to say it’s no big deal isn’t paying attention or is being willfully ignorant.
It’s just shocking to me the number of unmasked people wandering around indoors in places, and it seems that half of them are open-mouth coughing all over the place. Total disrespect & disregard for others.
13
@Eirroc
I obviously agree wholeheartedly with your first paragraph.
Nonetheless, some people will cut off their nose to spite their face -- and scolding or shaming them won't make either of us safer. We need a (literally) more foolproof vaccine!
Folks “cases” “hospitalizations” “icu admissions/ventilator” and “deaths” connote vastly different things.
In the NE we are seeing a spike of “cases” because although the vaccination rates are high, they aren’t nearly the 85-90% we need to stop the spread. We have a Republican Governor who is smart, understands the political landscape and follows science. We’ve had some pretty stringent rules and still require masks when indoors in public. We also have a public school mask mandate. But hospitals are not overwhelmed.
Contrast this with Michigan, D Governor under death threats from anarchists and protests by angry white people, so … far fewer restrictions and hospitals are overwhelmed. I have an acquaintance in Grand Rapids (literally the buckle of the Bible Belt) who went to ER with dangerously high BP and had to sit on a hard chair in the waiting room for 7 hours. Why? Because the main hospital there (Spectrum Health) is overwhelmed with COVID cases among the unvaccinated >90%. >98% of deaths are among the unvaccinated.
Breakthrough infections which require hospitalization are among the elderly, people with diabetes, or imunno-compromised, etc.
Wise up and get vaccinated for the country.
9
The only way we will end these surges is everone GOP and evangelicals get vaccinated. If not i support total lockdown against all unvaccinated . You all need to start home and quite infecting us vaccinated. Shame on you . I had 3 vaccines and there is nothing wrong with them. In Austria they had locked down all unvaccinated people and Germany is doing the same. Since our Americans are being belligerent and violent about the vaccines and mask again stay home until you follow the rules.
6
This is the second year that we've cancelled our big extended family Christmas gathering because of the virus. However, my husband and I will be getting together with just our grown offspring. We will all be vaxxed, including boosters.
The only thing that will make me happier is when Pfizer's amazing pill treatments are approved for vaxxed adults. Oh, and make the monoclonal antibody treatment easier and quicker to obtain.
20
After celebrating alone last year, my husband and I--both boosted--are thrilled to be looking forward to Thanksgiving with our vaxxed daughter and a couple of her housemates. We'll all take a rapid antigen test beforehand for some added reassurance. We've all been careful about masking indoors as well. While our gathering won't be risk-free, the risk will be very much reduced. I can't wait. Happy Thanksgiving!
12
Here in Texas we hear stories about younger people deliberately going out to get infected so that they can develop “herd immunity.” How true these stories are and how many of them there are I cannot say. But the idea that you are willing to risk long-term COVID with its lingering symptoms just so that you don’t have to get a vaccine that has been safely administered to millions of people who have not experienced any significant side effects — well, it is mind-boggling. I simply do not understand the mindset behind this notion. No one has ever been able to explain it satisfactorily or in a way that makes any sense. It seems as if quite a large number of people have simply surrendered to irrationality and ignorance about the safety of this vaccine. Microchips? Government tracking? Infertility? The vaccine itself causes COVID? Millions of people believe this nonsense?
Every once in a while I imagine that this is all just one bad joke and that anti-vaxxers will pop up at some point and yell, “We’re kidding!” And then roll up their sleeves and do the right thing, so we can all get back to some semblance of normalcy at last.
49
@Allison Some children never outgrow "you're not the boss of me".
10
@Djt My sister in law, her husband (a cancer survivor) and their 10 year old son all got Covid. No vaccines, she believes more children die from vaccines than Covid; also something about a deadly spike protein? Because she is "paying attention." She also believes it was a good thing to get Covid (she does at least believe in herd immunity); even if she did suffer from long Covid she'd lie about it. I heard all of this through my husband, her brother, since I refuse to communicate with her. And we used to be friends.
3
The NY Governor should set an example and have state employees work from home. Having hem go to their offices a few days a week, creates crowds and transmission. So as much I never liked Cuomo, he did send state employees to work from home. This new Governor needs to the same pronto!
9
@Great
Just as it is mandated that NYS workers be vaccinated, so too should precautions be employed with work from home options if at all possible. Conquering this pandemic is not just about the vaccines! It has been shown that there can still be high rates of transmission in highly vaccinated states if social mitigation measures are not standardized. In addition, the virus is spread because of the variants, waning immunity and the unvaccinated still circulating with the vaccinated. Indoor dining remains a high risk environment for both private homes and public restaurants. You cannot eat or drink with a mask on, and studies have shown that all it takes is fifteen minutes of accumulated exposure in a 24 hour period to contract the disease. Yes people are tired of Covid. But this fatigue is helping the pandemic become a permanent and deadly fixture in our lives.
4
I disagree. If everyone is vaxxed and masked, it’s safe. And it’s time to inch towards some sort of normalcy—this isn’t going away ever.
5
@Great
Do you have any idea how badly backlogged New York State is? It's been described as "broken" by small business owners waiting to hear back from it.
New York State employees need to get the government back up and running.
2
In answer to a query below. On Average UnVaxxed Covid persons are 6X more likely to go to hospital and 12X more likely to die once admitted. Throw in the age addition and then anyone over 65 un vaxxed ending up in hospital, is more likely to die than not. In fact the odds are horrendous.
For stats, visit John Hopkin/ Our World in Data(Oxford Uni) or ONS (UK stats office). They make chilling reading.
I'm 65, just had my pfizer booster, and if my bad reaction is only half the Covid reaction, I'll still take it any time
37
I still can hear Trump's voice in an audio interview with Bob Woodward talk about how this pandemic was going to bad—r-e-a-l-y bad. If you don't want to listen to the duly elected President's from either the 45th or 46th Administrations talk about how this is serious and that vaccinations would help stem the upward trajectory of infections and deaths then I suppose deferring to Dr. Anthony Fauci might be worth a listen.
One of the past President's even had the decency to say, 'please'.
3
I can still hear Trump's voice saying it will be over by Easter and maybe use disinfectant in your veins.
13
@Cathy
I can still hear Speaker Pelosi telling everyone to join the Chinese New York celebration, assuring everyone it was "safe." Of course, that was before they realized how dangerous it was and immediately started blaming Trump.
4
@AACNY Chinatown in San Francisco has had a VERY low rate of coronavirus throughout the pandemic.
3
Never thought I’d say this but this virus is here to stay despite the vaccines. All should be vaccinated and wear masks but even if they don’t we don’t at this point have enough knowledge to beat it.
This thing is indeed novel.
12
Dr Fauci said his family is traveling, masked, and that his vaccinated family will gather together unmasked.
That’s our approach, too.
10
still not convinced this is just the delta variant we are dealing with.
i think the vaccines should be improved before the second "booster" round is administered first half of next year.
5
What would Dr. Jonas Salk say, if he were alive today, to those who refuse the vaccinations. I doubt it would be printable.
29
@Bob in NM I wonder if he'd say that they need to work on a better vaccine. Back to formula!
5
@Fitzgibbons : If we waited for a perfect vaccine the body count would have been staggering. Perfect is the enemy of good.
8
Not traveling this Thanksgiving, but if I was it would only be in my own car. No Covid, you’re not invited either.
9
Year 2021 will be known in this household as the year that people who should know better are still dismissing unvaccinated kids in the name of celebrating. My 7 y.o. barely just received her 1st dose of the vaccine and my 4 y.o. is still not eligible 20 months into this pandemic. Why are we celebrating like everything is fine?
45
The uptick in cases is not just because health officials that have largely stopped telling people to skip celebrations, but also because newspapers run what one commenter called “a cute, fun article” such as “We’re Having a Holiday Gathering. Are We Nuts?”
Of course the cases are ticking upward. We knew they would. We saw this last Thanksgiving. And last Christmas. And last New Year’s. We saw this the last time social distancing was lifted and mask mandates were lifted. We’ve seen this again and again and again.
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. And force the rest of us to repeat it, too.
Stay home.
35
We’re almost two years into this, for Pete’s sake. There’s a whole world of grey area between partying like it’s 1999 and staying home alone. This isn’t going away. Ever. Time to be realistic and mitigate the risk, not try to live in a fantasy of risk-free. Life is short. Wear a mask whenever you can, get vaxxed, be choosy about who you hang with and LIVE.
8
The public is ready to quit the pandemic. Many of us, even with risks, are done with it. We mask up, get our vaccines and boosters and get on with life--carefully following guidelines.
Those who never joined the pandemic will face the consequences of their selfishness and foolishness, just as the highways are full of fools with cars.
Be safe this holiday season and follow some commonsense precautions. Buckle up and mask up.
15
During the holiday season, old folks beware. WSJ just published today (11/22/2021) "Breakthrough cases examined" with the following data.
Percentage of patients infected with Covid-19 after full vaccination
Hospitalized:
0-17 years 1.37%
18-34 2.36%
35-49 3.35%
50-64 7.45%
65+ 19.75%
Admitted to ICU
0-17 years 0.31%
18-34 0.28%
35-49 0.66%
50-64 1.85%
65+ 4.22%
Died
0-17 years 0.05%
18-34 0.03%
35-49 0.18%
50-64 0.74%
65+ 2.74%
Be careful and have a happy gathering.
9
@Usok
What does this mean exactly? Does it mean that 19.75% of vaccinated people 65 and older will get Covid? Or that of vaccinated people who do get Covid- 19.75% of them will be in this age group.
I believe it’s the second choice but I think many people are reading it as the first choice.
1
@Pam C It certainly can't be the second choice, since, on that reading, the age groups together would have to add up to 100%.
I believe that these say that, for example, of adults 65+ who get covid, 19.75% are fully vaccinated. Or that of adults 65+ who die of COVID, 2.74% are fully vaccinated.
(This stat, of course, has to be understood within the context of the vaccination rates of the 65+ crowd, which is extremely high. So the fact that such a low percentage of breakthrough infections and deaths are vaccinated is even more encouraging!).
3
@Pam C I took it to mean that, in the 65+ age group, 19.75% of fully vaccinated people who come down with a breakthrough case will end up being hospitalized. 4.22% in that group (65+, full vaxxed, with a breakthrough case) will end up in the ICU. And 2.74% of that group (65+, fully vaxxed, with a breakthrough case) will die.
Is that right, Usok?
8
Why aren't we hearing how many new cases are with vaccinated vs unvaccinated people ? That is a crucial piece of information about the effectiveness of the vaccines, and how durable they are.
32
@Greg Ebert, a study in Israel, which the American medical community is using to inform their recommendations, showed that the vast majority of new cases were unvaccinated people (so the vaccines are still very effective), and that people with the booster shot are about one tenth as likely to get the virus as those with just the initial vaccine.
21
@Greg Ebert My state, RI, has a page run by the Dept. of Health, where those statistics this are clearly posted, with graphs and stats, on a breakthrough data page. Check to see if Oregon has done the same. Here, clearly, though a small portion of vaccinated people are getting hospitalized or dying, they mostly are folks who are elderly or have an underlying condition. A lot of those folks were the first to get a vaccination so their immunity may be low, so important to get a booster.
Sadly, someone I know, whose 34 year old partner was living in the denial this article notes, died, leaving two very young children and a large portion of the money to support the family. Just because you survived so far without a vaccination doesn't mean you are immune to death. Keep wearing those masks!!
8
Oregon reports on numbers of breakthrough cases. Over the last month or so, it has ranged between 25 - 29 percent. Median age 48. 4.5 percent of those hospitalized; 1.1 percent deaths, median age 81. You can search Oregon Health Authority Breakthrough Case Reports.
4
Perhaps if regional leaders would keep mask mandates in place and stop shifting the rules based on daily and weekly trends, especially as winter approaches and more and more activities shift indoors, we wouldn't see this repeated trend (i.e., increasing COVID diagnoses).
The average American doesn't understand epidemiological trends or statistical analysis. They only see how this all affects their lives and see it as the gov't moving the goal posts and interfering. The anti-maskers use these shifts in public pandemic policy as additional rationalizations to refuse masking. (It doesn't help that the Gov.s of TX and FL are playing to the base and posturing in hopes that if Trump doesn't run for President in 2024, they will.
39
when we start hearng about "boosted breakthrus" on non immuno non aged ppl Ill start worrying again. Im boosted im healthy and im going back to my old life as much as i can.
10
And many places will be fully in their right to not grant you entrance into a movie theatre, bar, educational facility or restaurant without masks and/or (someday hopefully enforced) proof of vaccination. That’s the new, “old life” you pine for.
Hate to break it to you - your “old life” will never be fully back until this virus is finally outsmarted and the ignorant are made to comply. There is no Get Out of Jail Free card for anyone, until everyone accepts that vaccines, with enduring common sense protocols like, social distancing, plenty of hygiene, and MASKS being used will be the only way to control the pandemic.
And being vaccinated isn’t being immune. It’s just a means to lesser outcomes. Follow the bouncing ball friend. You haven’t escaped.
20
I know boosted doctors in their 30s who have had breakthroughs. Super minor illness. I think it’s going to happen. Not much we can do to stop it unless we stop living. But people should obviously get vaccinated even though it’s not a silver bullet.
3
@René Alberto Pedraza thanks. friend.
According to today's data in the NYT Covid tracking section NY has a rolling 90 day per capita case rate that is more than four (and almost five) times higher than FL.
And yet there aren't any articles about "Blue Covid."
Who knew that so many ignorant "Republicans" had moved to NY since last summer?
19
@Fred Rick, I too would have loved to see some analysis on why rates in the South are dropping. I think, in part, the recent surge led to more people getting the vaccine in the South, but I think vaccine rates are still low there.
4
@Fred Rick my guess, as a Floridian, is that many of the most vulnerable are already DEAD from the atrocious summer we had. You don't get to forget the massive numbers of dead people already gone from covid. Right now, people up north are gathering more indoors. Floridians are more spread out and can gather safely outdoors. But our winter is coming -- and surely more deaths will follow. Covid has proven that it comes in 2-3 month waves, then wanes, then waves again. You don't get to brag after so many people are already dead and gone. One of my closest friends has a husband who is not vaccinated, 60 years old, and with a number of health problems. I hope my fear that he may not make it through this winter doesn't become reality.
26
@Fred Rick Covid cases are trending up in NY, but deaths remain nearly flat. That’s the power of the vaccines. You might get infected and you might still transmit it, but you’re unlikely to get seriously ill. So NY has rising case numbers, but their hospitals are not as overwhelmed as they are in places with lower vaccination rates.
20
Nah, I'm done. My daughters, who have lived the majority of their life on "hold," are not at high risk.
We have done everything right. Shots, masks, and isolation. Meanwhile, chuckleheads have lived their life unabated. It is partly because of them that the pandemic persists.
To the Olds, I'm sorry, but we have sacrificed enough. I'm going home for Thanksgiving this year.
35
@mp
You may be sacrificing someone you supposedly care for and that includes the very young. In Europe the rate of infection in young children has skyrocketed and so has the number of children who became Covid long haulers.
23
@mp
I don't know how old your daughters are, but if you study viral infections like the 1918 pandemic you would know that you're taking a risk with their lives.
There is no way of insuring that there will be, perhaps in the near future, a variant that decides to focus on killing younger people. Which is why it is imperative that we get a handle on the virus as soon as we can.
After the first wave of the 1918 pandemic, the average age of death from the virus was about 65 years. But after the 2nd and 3rd waves ran their course the average age of death from the virus was something like 38 years old. Why did it fall so far ? Because subsequent variants targeted much younger people.
Food for thought to people who claim that children are at low risk.
All we can say about that is that they are at low risk ... for now.
27
@mp
Unfortunately, as the numbers, persistence and mutability of the virus demonstrate, you do not get to decide that you've "sacrificed enough."
We're all tired of this pandemic. That has no relevance to how the pandemic remains a threat. You'd be a fool to throw up your hands and engage in risky behavior.
9
Now that people can protect themselves through vaccination, workplaces have tended to drop the social distancing measures in place last year to prevent spread around the holidays. I guess the assumption is that people will either protect themselves voluntarily or take on the risk willingly because they don't care about Covid.
I'm taking vacation days from work to social distance before seeing my elderly mother even though we're all vaccinated. I would have liked to see my workplace promote remote work at this time, recognizing the special dangers of the delta variant for those who are vulnerable and the dramatic increase in cases, especially here in Michigan.
43
How long before our health care system breaks? When the gov stops sending cash. We would be worse off under Republicans who gave up on every necessary assistance last year.
I hope we give enough to redesign the just in time and bare minimum capacity that is the bedrock of modern health care assumption. We need to pay for excess capacity and stock piles of supplies.
In many ways we have been lucky. There is no way to interpolate trends from the graphs to predict where they go next. That is to say anything is possible here today and all future scenarios are equally likely -- good, bad, moderate.
11
@Jackson and yet who booed Trump when he referred to it as his vaccine?
1
@Jackson
Oh, you mean the former guy, who lied about getting vaccinated and who had better health care at his service than any other human on earth? That guy? The one in the lab coat slaving away long hours to save the country?
R-r-r-right.
10
Uh…Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, AZ and the others, who had vaccines in early testing stages more than a month before Trump admitted the pandemic was real, and five months before Warpy Speedy started?
I don’t get why people think it’s cool just to keep repeating obvious, easily-checkable lies, and can’t just take credit where it’s actually due for production? Is it that it would bring up the whole Emergent fiasco?
If unvaccinated people get covid and wind up in the hospital their treatment should be out of pocket, as they recently did in Singapore.
133
Winter is coming!
11
At this point -- who cares?
As you've sometimes reported -- we are now at a point where Covid is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated".
If these people have continued to refuse to properly protect themselves -- the rest of us should no longer express concern.
Just as you cannot get anyone to wear a seat belt if they don't want to do so -- so you cannot bring intelligent behavior to the stupid.
I am vaxxed (and boosted) as are everyone I know and associate with -- I just don't care about those who won't take care of themselves.
30
@George S. ah, not so fast. I'm an extremely healthy person -- distance runner, lots of fruits and veggies always on my plate, of course vaccinated. Imagine my surprise this summer when two random infections -- an ear infection, and an infection from a cat bite -- landed me in the ER with some complications. And guess what? Covid meant that I was at heightened risk of catching covid in the ER (thankfully that didn't happen) AND the hospitals were madhouses where care was questionable and not easy to receive. The physicians made a few mistakes that affected my recovery. I'm still not fully recovered but I'm getting there. When the ERs are all FULL and FAR beyond capacity -- everyone suffers, not just the unvaccinated. What we should be doing is putting them at the back of the line for treatment but I guess that just isn't going to happen.
79
@George S. As a mother of three kids under five, I am appalled at your lack of compassion. One of my kids has asthma and has been hospitalized several times with other viruses, so I'm terrified of what Covid would do to him. Society has moved on and kids are the ones left behind. What a lesson to be teaching to the younger generations.
23
@TMW Pasteurella multocida is nothing to fool around with. It landed my husband in the hospital for a week.
2
Why are we still reporting case numbers? Case numbers with no concept of severity are meaningless, especially in areas where most people are vaccinated and a "case" is likely to mean a positive test result (potentially with no symptoms or mild symptoms.)
18
@teal Case numbers are still important, but I agree that more information is needed for context. NY has rising case numbers, but deaths are essentially flat. Remember, we’re not just worried about hospitalizations and deaths, but also potentially debilitating long Covid.
12
@teal Because infected people can still transmit the virus and infect people who are not yet eligible for the vaccine (like my three kids and millions of other young children).
6
It’s been over a thousand people dying daily for weeks now. That’s a lot to be concerned about.
10
Shots and MASKS.
I'm asthmatic and have not had a cold or bronchitis since this whole thing started.
I am going to MASK UP forever.
82
Shots are much much much more important than masks.
Everyone should get the booster after 6 months.
7
@EK
I found a similar thing when I wore a mask to mow my lawn; no allergy attack
I intend to mow my lawn while masked forever
14
@EK
I am going to mask up forever on airplanes and in airports. Before the pandemic, I routinely came down with a cold after a flight, especially in winter.
I also intend to mask up if I do catch a cold and have to go out in public. I do not want to pass the misery on to anyone else.
13
First, if the organizations like CDC can't give Americans clear instructions, they should be replaced by people who can. Second, people who have not been vaccinated and/or do not wear masks should have to bear most of the costs of treatment when they get sick. Third, we are giving our front line medical workers PTSD that they will pay for for the rest of their lives. State and Federal government needs to deal with it now.
We are at war with invaders that are as deadly as any military war we have ever been in. Our defenses are wearing out and the invaders will continue to evolve in strength. Our enemies abroad don't have to do anything. They can just stand back and watch.
30
let's keep in mind that many healthcare workers are still refusing to get vaccinated!
9
@xyz
xyz thanks for your comment. Yes, and if we thought we were really at war, the unvaccinated healthcare workers would either get vaccinated or be replaced. The unvaccinated are similar to enemy agents. Would we knowingly let them continue to work in the Pentagon or mix in with troops in a war zone?
6
I'm abroad and I just heard a vacationing unvaccinated American say antivax nonsense. This was a guy who is a programmer, African American, from a blue state. I'm done with these people. Let's continue to provide the vaccine to those who want it. Those who think it's a hoax or that the vaccine somehow harms you can just find out the hard way.
47
Not sure why State political leaning or race had to do with it. Trumpies and the like occupy every State, encompass every race, ethnicity, etc.
2
Haven’t we seem this movie before? To keep making the same mistakes again in the hopes of a different outcome is normally considered an indication of insanity. It’s starting to look like our society has now reached a state of collective madness.
28
When Dr. Olsterholm says this virus is throwing 120 MPH fast balls nobody saw coming, that is a concern. It's already defied many predictions and is persistently invasive in unpredictable ways. What's next? Pandemics of the past came and went. Some took a natural course and ended, some we wiped out with vaccines. This one defies both. It's more flu like, but worse, and there is such an unknown as to who it's victims are and why. No wonder people have fatigue over this. We can't ever fully understand it, nor fully guard against it. Is Mother Earth speaking to us? I know that sounds woo woo, but our mother is ill due to our treatment of her, and she may be responding. Something to consider at least.
17
@Robert —yes much confusion. Where I work it’s mandatory masking(I’m all in favor) ten miles away at the NY Islanders hockey game 17,000 people unmasked and indoors. Please don’t reply they were all vaccinated.
4
Enjoyed reading your take on this, but is this virus really throwing “120 mph fastballs” at us. From the beginning of the pandemic to this moment it is a pandemic of the unvaccinated with the worst consequences for those with risk factors like age, immunocompromised status, BMI. We still have a large pool of people who refuse vaccination and other measures for self protection. Sounds like an ongoing pandemic to me.
6
I'm just stunned that people in the Northeast spent the past few months dunking on southern states and gloating about our low numbers.
Don't we look silly now.
It's a seasonally influenced virus, people.
We're two years into this and there are folks still denying this.
16
@Dave
Compare and contrast the two surges. In August, the surge in Florida, Louisiana, Alabama, et al. resulted not only in hugely elevated numbers of cases, but also in huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths.
By contrast, the current surge in the Northeast has led to elevated numbers of cases, to be sure, but not on the same scale, per capita, as the case numbers in the South a few months ago. Furthermore, the Northeast surge has not resulted in a genuine explosion in the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, as the summer Southern surge did.
So no, we don't look silly now.
7
We are already hearing the anti-vax/anti-maskers blame Biden for the high levels of unvaccinated getting covid. It makes perfect sense.
10
And we care about rising cases amongst the vaccinated because...?
What bearing should rising cases, deaths, and hospitalizations, overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated, have upon the vaccinated?
Everybody has their own comfort level with risk, perhaps some have a lower risk threshold than myself. But as long as I am vaccinated and wearing masks indoors in public spaces, then I don't see what else there is to do. We have to figure out a way to functionally live our lives with the risk of COVID.
6
As unified a collective effort as possible is required, particularly with appropriate messaging being clearly issued from the CDC and the medical establishment, if we are ever going to get to the other side of this pandemic. The disturbing fact that so many millions of people are traveling this holiday season without regard to the real risks they are facing, will no doubt play out in predictably higher and higher rates of infection and hospitalization. The booster shots have just begun, and now that we know how quickly efficacy wanes from the original two dose regimen, the outlook for this holiday season is indeed grim. As far as those who are able to keep from getting severely infected and hospitalized, a third of those infected end up with long term symptoms. As more and more Europeans protest Covid-19 restrictions, it seems unlikely that Americans will fully cooperate if and when similar restrictions are imposed due to skyrocketing case numbers. Pandering to the impatience of the population for a return to normalcy is not rational or effective in the public health realm or any other realm. But that train has left the station more than once. It is time for the federal government to develop some leadership qualities and enforce the appropriate mandates no matter what holiday is upon us.
16
Voluntary vaccination didn't work. It didn't achieve inoculation in the high 90ies that would be needed to keep our health system from collapsing during a wave of infection.
Therefore, plan B now must be compulsory vaccination and boosters. We've had that before: Polio, small pox, measles. End of discussion!
We are heading straight into the exact same catastrophe that Western Europe is finding themselves in right now. Except, our current vaccination rate is even lower than theirs, and our incidence rate is pointing upwards again from a much higher level than their base rate.
68
The story headline is that coronavirus. cases have "ticked upward" recently, a mild description in my estimation. By the data posted in The New York Times, the two-week rise is 29%. If I received a salary increase of 29%, I would not call it a tick upward. Compared to the most recent minimum in the CDC's 7-day moving averages of cases on October 24 the current 7-day moving average is up 50% to over 90,000 per day. That is nobody's idea of a tick upwards, as for example if the NYC police department reported violent crime in increased by 50% in the past two months. The story does not emphasize that the rise in new cases in the US, as in Europe, is primarily due the unvaccinated, "tens of millions" being that number stated in the article. The actual number according to the CDC is 62 million eligible adults in the US are unvaccinated. That's a huge pool for the virus to infect and cause havoc in hospital occupancy.
38
The difficult truth of Covid is that there is no easy way now. Our UK vaccination rates are higher than in the US. In fact the US is in around 50th place on the global vaccination league table. So incentives there would help.
But even in much more comprehensively vaccinated countries, there is still sometimes a surge in infections. In our case, and in several others, the question of whether to vaccinate younger children is key. They are more prone to almost symptom-free infection, and their risks from Covid are very low. It's hard to mandate for them when even the low risk from vaccination might be higher than from the disease.
The fact is that, for us after our boosters, we are close to a long-term equilibrium. And at this point restricting family gatherings just cannot make sense.
Maybe it will be necessary during infection surges to impose mask mandates, to restrict entry to potential super-spread events from night clubs to choir rehearsals, and sometimes to extend school holidays.
But whatever we end up with needs to be depoliticised and acknowledged as the best we're going to get.
11
@Londoner plenty of incentives have rolled out here in the US, but the recalcitrant few (immunosuppressed are the exception) have dug in their heels with their "rights" tantrums. There needs to be much more stick and less carrot.
6
We could easily be at 90% fully vaccinated if it weren’t for three things:
1. The misinformation (and outright falsehoods) out there on social media and the airwaves.
2. Politicization of public health measures by right wing politicians and media outlets. (Fox News is incredibly hypocritical in that they require employees to be vaccinated, plus masked when not on air).
3. Anger and entitlement by right-wing voters who put their “rights” over the common good of the country. After all, the two reasons for a national vaccine campaign is to protect yourself, yes. But even more importantly to stop the disastrous spread of this virus to others who often less able to fight this virus off.
This country is spiraling downward and it’s not due to the left. What Democrats are doing and have been for generations is trying to help people: paid parental leave, early childhood education, increasing access to healthcare, rebuilding our infrastructure, commitment to scientific research and education - these are hardly destabilizing ideas. They are commitments to making life better for all of us.
102
@Michael -all fair points—but in some areas there was bipartisan support. Also some of these programs are expensive and hit the middle class taxes hard—it’s nonsense for the left to continue to say “tax the rich “, we know there aren’t enough rich to pay for this. Corporations will pass any tax increases in lower salaries and higher costs. We need a better balance. The socialist movement in the party will never get my vote—I’ll take a Bill Clinton back any day.
1
So that's it. We've given up. We will never vaccinate enough people to get herd immunity thanks to the antivax movement, we will have another holiday surge as bad as last year or worse. It's not because the virus is overpowering us. It's because we never have, don't know, and never will really try to exercise the power we have against it. We might as well reelect Trump in 2024, because his denialism fits the American public now more than Dr. Fauci's science.
25
When hospitals get filled with Covid patients, other medical conditions that need to be treated get short shrift. That means people suffer and die from conditions that might have been successfully treated. We need to start publishing the numbers of deaths above the historical expectation, because this number is the true deaths caused by Covid.
I'm glad I'm no longer in medicine. I couldn't imagine dealing with a practice full of long haul Covid patients whom I can't treat, can't tell when or even if they are going to ever get better, and who would likely unload their frustrations on me. It makes trying to treat chronic pain look easy.
I'm hoping the oral anti-virals work. But vaccines and boosters will always be required; we just don't know how often, yet.
23
@Mike S.
If immunity wanes in 6 months from the first round, won't it wane after the next and next?
The problem is this virus is mild enough it will persist in some pocket for decades. The 1918 virus was so deadly and quick it burned out never to return. This virus is worse for being milder..
1
@larkspur But the 1918 virus didn't go away. It mutated and its descendants are still with us.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/09/01/1918-flu-pandemic-end/
1
It’s open season for the virus on the unvaccinated and under-vaccinated.
Unfortunately, there will be a spillover to the vaccinated too: breakthrough cases, mask mandates, vaccine mandates and on and on.
Thanks to trump, republicans and the unintelligent among us, this virus has won and will be with humanity forever.
23
Equally true? “My feelings are as good as your facts”.
1
@R
I noticed you didn't mention the vaccinated infecting the vaccinated.
2
@R we all know this talking point by now, and it doesn’t make any sense as a response to the above comment as they specifically mention the unvaxxed.
Studies have started that keep showing vaxxed people are less likely to spread the disease because their bodies starts fighting it off faster, reducing that viral load.
The real metric to care about is hospitalizations. Overwhelmingly it is the unvaxxed clogging up the hospital system and endangering us all- and not just from Covid. Vaxxed do not make it into the hospital nearly as often.
Hopefully the oral therapeutics can be self administered and patients will no longer have to be hospitalized, or the beds will be freed up faster.
2
What these articles in the Times don't do is present some context to the scarifying numbers they present. Example:
"In the last two weeks, reports of new cases have increased by more than 40 percent in Pennsylvania, by more than 80 percent in Massachusetts and by 70 percent in Indiana." Now, one reads this and says, wow, we must be doomed! 70 percent! But then I clicked on the link to Indiana, for example, to discover that 70% meant 2,840 cases in a population of 6.7 million. Among those cases, how many were the so-called "breakthrough" cases, how many were among the unvaccinated, and more to the point, how many result in hospitalization and death? As one commenter noted, they had symptomless breakthrough positive tests. Just some thoughts to, perhaps, put things into context as this pandemic slowly rolls into endemicity.
22
Good points. All I care about is the number of vaccinated who get sick. The rest are on their own.
11
This whole covid thing will be used by the government just like the terrorism color coded threat level was used with Bush. They raise the level offers with the associated color. Covid warnings are used the same way To raise and lower the level of fear as they feel the need to. Fear is control. Control is power. If you're distracted by fear of those around you. You can't see what's happening with those above you.
6
@Chaz As a wise man once wrote, "The first rule of controlling a population is to always be at war."
This is so disturbing. Tracking the NYTimes own data on vaccination and infection rates, we now can see for ourselves that states with a high vaccination rate are currently experiencing a surge in infections. States with the lowest vaccination rates are, overall doing far better.
How can this be?
This phenomenon is also occurring world wide. Check the stats for yourself. For the average person trying to understand what's happening, the science seems elusive. The media and government officials maintain that getting a large percentage of the population vaccinated is the key to ending the pandemic.
But, sadly there is more going on than even the experts understand. The results of this study published on the National Center for Biological Information web site shocked me. Not only is what we are being told incorrect, but even the scientists seem to be struggling to understand why.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/
My personal conclusion is that despite being "vaxxed to the max". I'm continuing to wear my mask, avoid gatherings, and remain vigilant. Better to be safe, than...well...dead.
17
@Fosco I'm no scientist, I'm a nurse...but the implications of that paper you linked to were alarming.
I would prefer to not live with covid indefinitely, please.
2
Please clarify vaxed to the max does not prevent you from getting Covid or spreading it. Why do politicians and health professionals continue to lead people to believe and encourage them to act as if they are immune.
9
@PL
I don't get that the government and health professionals are saying vax'd means you won't get it or spread it.
That ARE saying that higher vaccination numbers will mean less severe illness and death, and less stress on our health care system
They've been pretty open from the start about how vaccines don't make one bulletproof
4
COVID-19 aka novel coronavirus-19 aka SARS-2 aka COV-SARS-2 is neither benign nor malign in it's RNA genomic evolutionary fit quest to be fruitful and multiply.
COVID-19 is merely acting according to it's biological nature.
And so are the one and only modern DNA African primate ape species aka human beings acting according to their nature.
COVID-19 currently knows far more about to infect and spread among humans than we know how to deter,detect and defeat it.
1
At this stage of the virus it is absolutely incredible that so many millions of Americans remain unvaccinated. The shots are plentiful and easily obtained. Yet for various reasons, many that stretch the imagination, people still refuse the vaccine. At the end of this year, after the holidays are done, it will be very interesting to see how high new cases have spiked. I hope I am wrong and that we do not see such a spike. But if many new cases arise, and if any of them are very severe, how many of these people will then start crying and wishing they got the shot today? Again, very hard to understand such mindsets. And absolutely incredible that millions of them actually exist.
17
Before the Pandemic I vastly underestimated the numbers of ignorant people in our nation. The volume of misinformation is beyond imagination. The role of politics when it comes to public health is also unbelievable. With all the data one would think that there would be a lot more intelligence in our nation.
30
My mom lives in an assisted living facility. 10% of residents tested positive in one day nearly two weeks ago. All of them had 2 doses with the boaster scheduled for a week after that testing date. They had more people test positive that day than in the previous 20 months combined.
Covid-19 isn’t going away.
13
@Illinois
Do you know how many of those infected became seriously ill?
@Illinois
My mom lives in assisted living facility
Since the invention of vaccines NO resident has tested positive
You might want to consider moving your mom to a better facility
1
@Illinois Had everyone who works there been vaccinated too?
It is my belief that the vaccinated and unvaccinated spread the virus easily. That the vaccinated are protected from illness but not from being infected. Is this possible?
3
@anitakey
I saw some data unvaccinated are 4X more likely to be infected than vaccinated.
3
@anitakey It's not a zero-one thing. This is the mistake so many people make.
Re spread: both vaxxed and unvaxxed can spread it. But unvaxxed are more likely to spread it while infected (they carry a higher viral load) and are more likely to be infected, and therefore spreading, for a longer period of time (because vaxxed rid themselves of the virus more quickly).
Re infection: again, both vaxxed and unvaxxed can be infected, but vaxxed are much less likely to be.
Re severe illness: unvaxxed are completely unprotected against severe illness. Vaxxed are highly protected but not completely, especially in high risk groups (age and underlying conditions).
Re moderate illness: unvaxxed completely unprotected, vaxxed somewhat protected.
17
@anitakey The vaccinated are to some significant degree protected from illness, especially serious illness, but certainly not completely protected. The vaccinated can spread the disease, but not as easily as the unvaccinated. The only way to be really well-protected is for infection levels in society as a whole to fall drastically. The best tool for that to happen is to get the vast majority of us vaccinated. Until then, you can’t afford to drop your guard even if you are fully vaccinated. You as an individual can contribute to the solution (or the problem), but you as an individual cannot fully protect yourself. Just be responsible and as careful as you reasonably can.
9
Instead of focusing on our own personal risk, we should be focusing on limiting the stress on the medical system, on which we all depend, regardless of our Covid or vaccination status. It's baffling to me how experts and laymen alike tend to fixate on personal safety instead. When patients of all kinds can't get treatment, we're all at risk.
38
@mrsg Thank you! My daughter and son-in-law are anesthesiologists and the reports from the front lines are devestating. Do people think at all about those who can't have bypass surgery or cancer treatments because they "lose" at triage. One cancer survivor whose doctor suspects a possible recurrence has had her appointment cancelled twice because no intensive care bed is available. Her original cancer was aggressive, so time is of the essence. It's not just about whether individuals die of covid. People need to wake up from this nightmare of frivolous egotism.
30
It's just not believable when journalists say, "There is confusion around Corona-19 Virus". The truth is vaccines work, masks, work, and distancing works, and we've heard it for over a year. I believe most people are capable of knowing this. Disregarding it a deadly practice.
114
Colder weather in the north, large sports and family get togethers for the season, shopping for Xmas, holiday movies and shows and the desires to meet at the local restaurant or bar… hmmmmm, quite the opportunity for a thing that isn’t sentient nor alive, but can make you seriously sick and even die.
We can be thankful this coming week and it’s holiday,
but it won’t be just the Grinch who will steal Christmas.
14
People have been acting like this is over. Hardly anyone wears a mask anymore or takes any precautions. These will be the same people who will be screaming bloody murder if we have to lock down again.
44
@Smilodon7
Depends where you live.
In this neck of the woods most people still mask up in stores.
Myself included.
7
Covid is not going away anytime soon, and there will always be those who refuse vaccination.
We need to really start exploring more treatments, like the pills by Pfizer and Merck that I hope are approved soon. Once a reliable treatment is accessible for all, it may change the trajectory of this virus.
13
Be smart, get vaccinated. But also be careful and don't go anywhere with crowds without a mask. Out here I frequent the supermarkets. I am amazed at how many people do not wear a mask. When I walk in I get numerous stares because I always wear my mask. We have two grandchildren that we see frequently and they can not get vaccinated yet. So I am doing what I feel is best for them. They are all that counts for me even if they say young children do not get it or get it so slightly that they are ok. It is the unvaccinated who are at risk and as far as I am concerned they should go the way Trump should go...lock em up.
35
@Peggy
Agree-wear a mask in risky places. Here in Florida few masked up & I get stares for masking indoors even with crowds. So far cases have been down because of vaccines and few tourists snow birds here. Still Florida topped NY in COVID deaths.
Will see what happens when the season hits because there are no restrictions now and our Governor encourages anti-vaccine anti-mask policy.
23
@Peggy It's probably because they understand that having had 2 or in some cases 3 vaccines they're more likely to die of food poisoning from something they buy at the store.
2
overall deaths in Florida per NYT are 284 per 100K . overall deaths in New York are 13784 per 100K. Case rate in Florida is the lowest in the nation. Thank you Gov. DeSantes!
1
Some people just have to learn the hard way. I feel aweful for the front line workers who are put at risk by the anti-vaxxers. But at this point those that are able to get vaccinated and choose not to so, and are putting the rest of us at risk, I have no pity.
31
@Confounded
Maybe insurance doesn’t cover COVID if unvaccinated?
1
@Jackson, yes I do know that. So let me re-phrase my original comment. I feel aweful for the majority of the front line medical workers who are vaccinated. Is that better?
3
It sure looks like all these precautions, masks, isolation, shots, are really helping, let’s do more of that. No, the virus is gonna virus, no way out of this until we all get it, we’re just delaying the inevitable in a very painful way.
7
Historical ignorance of vaccines is appalling. In the mid-twentieth century there were asylums that catered to polio and tuberculosis, measles and pertussis ravaged too many people, and the threat of smallpox is no-more. Lack of this historic perspective [among other simple educational topics] hamstrings too many now.
27
In a couple of hours, I'll be on my way to get shot number three, my Covid booster. I wear a mask when required, this included my recent flights to and from Europe, as well as on every mode of transportation while there. However, I've about had it with the Covid restrictions. Singapore recently imposed a rule whereby unvaccinated people will have to pay for their treatment if they come down with Covid. We should try something similar, how about if you're unvaccinated and come down with Covid, the hospital doesn't have to treat you and treatment will be between you and your GP. Further, if your employee requires a vaccine and you don't get one, you can be fired. I realize the vaccine is't a guarantee of prevention but at some point, we have to let the overwhelming majority of us go about our lives without living as we're going through security at the airport. Our economy is teetering as it is, shortages and inflation are rampant. It's time to go back to the pre Covid days.
25
Everyone attending our Thanksgiving gathering is home-testing beforehand. While the adults are all vaccinated to the max the children are not. We want to keep everyone safe and our guests feel the same. Magical thinking (denial) is not helpful with this virus.
16
If we believe the quotes from "experts" about their personal plans and ideas, once again, they don't really follow the science.
6
There can be no normalcy when fully one-quarter of the population has consciously chosen to remain unvaccinated as a way to foment chaos and widen the political divide.
40
Ugh. My COVID holiday missing days are over. Full stadiums restaurants malls store and theaters were all I needed. No one is listening any more. The lack of clarity and poor leadership on all levels has come home to roost. At the risk of sounding crass who cares any more?
3
This virus is not going away anytime soon.
Moreover -- it has brothers and sisters and aunts and uncles that will be visiting us soon.
Thanksgiving and Christmas will bring us large unmasked crowds sitting cheek-by-jowl with each other virtually in each other’s laps at football and basketball games to celebrate the Holidays
Vaccines and boosters notwithstanding, this thing is going to be with us for many more months, if not ten years.
If I was Joe Biden today, I’d call Dr. Fauci and ask him
to continue as my Spokesman-In-Charge-Of-Combating-The-Virus, along with a promise to him of a desk close to mine in the White House after my reelection in 2024.
9
@A. Stanton Biden big mistake was keeping Fauci on - Fauci flip flops and just now states considers fully vaccinated even with no booster. Never educated the public on masks and kept silent as Trump went on his crazy COVID misinformation rampages
1
If people who planned to have Thanksgiving dinner with elderly or other at-risk relatives made a habit of getting tested first, we could enjoy ourselves while sparing at least some of the inevitable consequences of family-centered holidays.
There will be a surge after Thanksgiving and another after Christmas and New Years. There will be tens of thousands of hospitalizations and deaths that follow.
Get tested before spending time with those at high risk. Also, Americans should have much better access to cheap rapid tests.
12
Evidently the concept of sacrificing for the common good (by getting a vaccine) is so last century.
No one can declare any longer that they were unaware of the vaccine. Nor can they declare to be unaware of the potential repercussions to their own health or those around them.
When one's mantra is "me, myself and I" coupled with the equivalent of a daily game of Russian Roulette, I find it impossible now to feel sorry for them. My sympathies go their loved ones and the people needed to care for the "me, myself and I" crowd.
87
I eat sushi, rare steak and raw milk cheese, and ride in NYC taxis. Life is filled with risk. A life of hiding from risk I could never endure. And so I’m in France, currently en route to Switzerland—two countries the US State Dept. advises against visiting due to covid. Wish you were here!
21
@C. Pivik That's nice to hear! I think the only difference is that most of those habits don't impact anyone else. I think people (not implying you but I hope you understand the point) forget that this covid-spreading risk can affect your elderly parents or loved ones in chemo.
31
@C. Pivik This is not about you. It’s about your obligation to the community. How willing you are personally to accept risks is completely and utterly beside the point.
15
@C. Pivik - glad you are and I’m not!
2
Vermont has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country, around 80%.
But they now are getting almost 400 new cases a day. From this data it should be clear that the vaccinated are getting infected and are spreading the virus.
This was predicted by the CDC and is why the vaccinated were told to wear masks, social distance and avoid crowds.
This suggests that we need a new virus strategy. Pitting vaccinated against unvaccinated isn't good public health policy, it's simply opportunistic politics.
The way to provide better protection for everyone is focus on the most vulnerable. Allow the full range of early treatment options, including the list of now a dozen repurposed drugs.
Don't waste vaccines on those already infected. The data shows their antibody levels to be as good as the vaccinated and obviously longer lasting.
Recognize that with vigorous testing, early treatment and an intelligent deployment of resources we can flatten the curve, reduce hospitalization and case fatalities by about 80% and eventually the virus will diminish because it will have no more hosts.
And we need to show the public how to proactively strengthen their immune system. It is our remarkable immune system that kills the virus, not drugs or vaccines.
It is hard to accept that many people will get infected along the way, but this is our new reality.
12
Could VT demographics have something to do with it? VT has the 5th oldest median age of all states in the US and older adults are more likely to have a suboptimal response to the vaccine. It should be clear to us all by now that this virus is here to stay.
9
@Drspock
Fewer and fewer if more and more vaccinate, nevertheless. And what we really need is a cure for pig-headedness.
13
Some of what you say may be true, but your assertion that recovery from the virus is as good as vaccination is absolutely disproven by the data, and is the reason the CDC recommends vaccination even for people who have already had Covid. You need to do more research before you start offering medical advice (apparently without a license.).
37
Interesting juxtaposition ( seems to fit ) - returned to live Church yesterday for first time - our Congregation is older, must have been 150 of us in attendance -- no masking and the consensus seemed to be - I have had the booster so, about as safe as I can get. On the other side - my wife's hairdresser is in her 30's with a young child. The child brought it home and gave to my wife's hairdresser ( who was vaccinated but no booster ). At end of day, I guess caution is the order of the day
13
The hairdresser got the virus, but how sick did she get? The point of vaccination is not that it prevents you getting Covid but that it prevents you getting very sick.
2
From a virology course I took over 40 years ago I was taught that Pandemics last 18 to 24 months before they burn themselves out completely or evolve into becoming endemic like the common cold. Vaccines were never going to stop the pandemic, but help reduce the carnage as we weathered the duration of the pandemic. It appears that Covid will become an endemic virus and will become less lethal over time, and to some extent epidemiologists have been teaching this concept that pandemics have a duration, but they do end, and if the pandemic portion of the virus’s journey ends in 2022 then it will be what I was taught so very long ago.
23
@Lance Iamnot Interesting comment. However, the professionals have not propagated the possibility that you present and instead speak of further variants that will be with us for years to come.
7
@Lance Iamnot
The vaccine was not about "stopping the pandemic".
It's about protecting one's self from possible infection with the added benefit of thus stopping a vaccinated person from being a "spreader".
4
Why you say holds for a zoonotic event, but the DARPA research proposals and years of virology papers point to a chimera composed of many different viruses. Additionally, SC2 is mutating to become fitter, not less lethal, largely because it transmits before symptoms appear and if the host dies it happens weeks after infection and onward transmission.
This is not a textbook case.
6
We are having a Thanksgiving gathering for 20, but all will home-test that morning. All are vaccinated. One of the 20 has had a break-through case. I’m sure we will be safe. People forget that the vaccinated are multiple times less likely to get it or transmit it than the unvaccinated. Our small group indicates that. My only complaint is that the tests are too expensive for most Americans at $12 per person. They are free in the UK. Why not here? Oh, yeah, big Pharma lobbyists.
31
@ifs My sister and brother-in-law thought as you do. They were both fully vaccinated when they flew to Florida in late September to meet with fully-vaccinated relatives. Both my sister and my brother-in-law got very sick (though not life-threateningly so) with covid, and so did two of the Florida relatives.
9
During the shutdown of March 2020, I watched my neighbors have daily parties while my wife and I donned our PPE to go work at the hospital. No surprise when 4 months later, I lost my vibrant brother to COVID. We were doomed from the very beginning.
19
The persistence of high levels of Covid infections and deaths could have been predicted by reading the comments of parents quoted by Jennifer Reich in her 2016 book, "Calling the Shots: Why Parents Reject Vaccines." The reasons are many but one stands out. One father, a cardiologist no less, said, "It's not my responsibility to inject my child with chemicals in order for [a child like Maggie] to be supposedly healthy. . . . I'm not going to sacrifice the well-being of my child. My child is pure." There you have it. Non-vaxxers, despite living in an interdependent society, maintain the fiction that they are responsible only to themselves and their immediate family members. Communitarianism to such people is a meaningless word.
127
Don't look now, but anti-vax, anti-mask Florida is now doing much better than the Northeast. This virus is so contagious that the various precautions people take are almost useless, and it instead follows the seasonality of the region.
18
@DRS i don't understand why people appear clueless about the virus spread. When people congregate indoors a lot, the virus spreads more.
In the summer in the Deep South, lots of people are inside because of the heat. Now the virus is expanding in the North, where lots of people are inside because of the cold.
Masks help stop the spread, but inside places that do not replace the air often, what escapes remains, and the more virus you are exposed to over a period of time, the more chance of infection.
17
@DRS Is it possible that the fact that Florida numbers look so good right now (as do those of Louisiana, Alabama, Missisippi, et al.) has something to do with the fact that the stats looked so horrible in August and September? The very high price for the current lull in those states was paid in advance, in the form of a monumental surge in cases numbers, hospitalizations, and deaths.
It is true that the Northeast, which was in so much better shape than Florida two or three months ago, is now seeing much higher per capita numbers of new cases. But they are not seeing anything like the per capita numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths seen in Florida (and Louisiana, et al.) in August and September.
There are two kinds of surges: the first kind takes place in an insufficiently vaccinated region and entails very high per-capita numbers of cases and hospitalizations and deaths; the second kind takes place in a highly vaccinated region and entails relatively large per-capita numbers of cases (though nowhere near as extreme as those seen in the first kind of surge) but relatively few hospitalizations and deaths.
It is to the great shame of the journalists covering the pandemic that this two-kinds-of-surge phenomenon has not been explained and discussed. People need to understand the distinction between a truly tragic surge that leads to huge numbers of hospitalizations and deaths and a surge that is driven mostly by big case numbers and leads to relatively few deaths.
15
@DRS Wrong. Florida number 3 in COVID dead in USA & topped NY which got hit hard initially. Nothing to brag about. Highest deaths in July 2021. Desantis had every opportunity to limit COVID spread but chose to follow MAGA Trump. Florida data & transparency-zero. Wait till the season hits.
10
Thank you for this article. However, once again the focus is on hospitalizations and deaths. Could you please at least acknowledge that long covid is a very real and serious complication of milder and less symptomatic acute cases, and this pandemic will never end until we as a society get a handle on how serious and debilitating long covid poses to so many people. Yes, being fully vaccinated reduces the chance of acute serious illness, but with many unvaccinated people still, and the reality of breakthrough infections, we have to include long covid in the conversation.
145
My husband, myself, my daughter and her fiancé just tested positive for Covid. We let our guard down and ate indoors at a restaurant. I am pretty sure that’s how we contracted Covid as we have been very careful. We wear masks when we go out and shop. We are all fully vaccinated and my husband and I recently got boosters. But, here is the problem, one that is due to the amazing effectiveness of the vaccine. We had no symptoms and probably would never have known we had Covid except that my daughter’s fiancé needed a Negative Covid test to return to Canada. He tested positive. We got tested and were positive too. We are quarantined for ten days and glad that we will not spread the virus to others. But we could easily unwittingly infected others if none of us had needed a Covid test. We all need to be very careful and keep wearing masks! BtW, MA has free Covid testing sites now, easy to set up an appointment and results within twenty four hours.
281
I am glad you are all ok despite the positive tests. You are proof the vaccines work! It’s time for us vaccinated cautious folks to start living our lives again. Just like annual flu shots, we may need boosters, we may even get sick, but will have thankfully milder symptoms. The time has come to live life, and stop testing the vaccinated.
30
Stay out of indoors restaurants and bars. Keep your n95 mask on during travel. And don’t travel unless you have to. Save yourself. And save the planet.
28
Except as she mentions even the vaccinated can have asymptomatic infections and happily passing it around unless masks remain on, social distancing, focused hygiene and hand washing…and testing. Especially before a large gathering for thanksgiving or immediately after or both. Knowing your status matters.
One of the great fallacies and reasons we are here again is primarily anti-vaxxers, but also the vaccinated who feel set free from any obligation to adhere to safety protocols, as if they are immune. Again. Being vaccinated is not an immunity guarantee. You can still infect Immuno compromised grandma as you pass her the mashed potatoes at dinner.
Mask up. And get tested when it’s a smart thing. Air travel. Large meetings. Etc.
You are not free from being an adult and observing all the requisite inconveniences, even post vaccination. 
44
We are not allowing anyone from the South or Midwest into our homes and of course we would never go there. We are also requiring vaccination proof of everyone else.
18
Vaccination proof to enter a home? Sounds like a very untrusting approach to people you know. Besides, proof of vaccination does not guarantee they don’t have COVID. Consider making your home a rapid testing site.
2
@Philip W
You say "and of course we would never go there" meaning the South and the Midwest
Yet the recent data shows the South to be the region with the lowest infection rate and the Northeast to be the the second highest.
7
@ML For the moment. Epidemics travel in waves. You have to look at the over-all picture. The over-all picture shows large areas of the south to be extremely dangerous.
5
Between colleges and the professionals, surely at least one million un-masked people sit close to each other in football stadiums across the US.
Ever since September when I watched Florida play Alabama in front of 90,000 I have been expecting to hear about an outbreak in one city or another because of one game or another. This ihas been especially true in the Deep South where vaccination rates are the lowest.
Here and there some stadiums have required spectators to show a test to be admitted. But I understand that such requirements have steadily dropped and may not even exist any longer.
Every morning NYT reports that Covid is ticking up again. Yet still no word about any super-spreaders from any of at least 100 jammed stadium events occurring every single weekend.
Things that make you go huh?
30
@Don Harold
COVID spreads easiest indoors in poorly vaccinated areas. Have fun at your family gathering.
6
@Mathilda Apparently enclosed stadiums under domes are considered the great outdoors with good ventilation. Especially when there can be as many as 100K people jammed together yelling with spit coming out of their mouths.
1
@Don Harold I'm shocked myself at how few sporting events have become super spreader events.
2
I’ve had to work unmasked with other unmasked people for several months now in outdoor and indoor environments and after having my nose pillaged more times than I can remember not a single test has come up positive.
I’m not saying covid isn’t something to be wary of going about your business but it hasn’t stopped me from daily living through this whole pandemic in one of the hardest hit areas. If I haven’t caught it from waiting in laundromats, waiting on supermarket lines, or being shoulder to shoulder on the subway with people who don’t wear masks themselves and going to concerts then I’m not sure what would make me catch it. I’m not looking to catch covid but I’m not letting it live my life for me
11
@Rick If you are not vaccinated and do become ill from the virus then you selfishly placed everyone around you at risk of becoming ill.
I agree that that we should not let covid run our lives, but, a simple vaccination.....
6
You may not catch the flu this year. Even unvaccinated. You may not catch it next year.
But when you do, it’s gonna be bad buddy. Good luck on your theory that you have beat the odds.
3
That’s the spirit!! 800,000 dead Americans said.
5
We are vaccinated and we are back to life with no precautions, except mask wearing where it's required (like the grocery store or the sidewalk in front of my kids' school). I am absolutely not testing anyone in the family if they have no symptoms.
Now, if you want to talk about the lingering mental health effects of pandemic life or the fact that the mental healthcare system has been over capacity for a long time, sure, I am here for this conversation.
27
@Martha
COVID is killing elderly people but you want to complain about the stress of wearing a mask? Boo hoo.
6
I've had it twice now. I'm fully vaccinated and I still got it a second time. This second time seems more about my circulatory system. It's frightening. I think it's good to get the vaccine but I think we're going to see it's not a guarantee. They don't know alot about it still. Our health people are doing their best. The non vaccinated should not be villified.
14
@Pete "The non vaccinated should not be villified."
ahhh, no
10
Yes, they should. Selfishness defines this country, and the unvaccinated epitomize narcissism.
25
People around here are pretty much acting like the virus is over. I live in a highly vaccinated area, but we all know that there are breakthrough cases. Seniors don't seem to be particularly panicked about the rising numbers. Restaurants are packed, fewer and fewer masks are seen, and our numbers are ominously ticking up.
It is hard to know what to think, or what to believe. It seems that the virus has a mind of its own, and people are trying to ignore it. It is a strange phenomenon. I hope we aren't in for a dismal winter.
59
@Judy This senior and her husband are panicked, frankly. We live half time in Annapolis in the summer. In winter it is Florida. Yes, Annapolis restaurants are packed but, at least in the summer, part of West St was closed for open-air dining. Other Annapolis restaurants have sidewalk seating, a tad like Europe always was. We felt safe going to Tsunami outside early in the evening and choose seating far from other customers. Here in Florida we sometimes eat outside but carefully distance. Mostly we do delivered restaurant dinners.
Caution is the word still. The new normal. We decided to be extra cautious and live with what we do and how we do it comfortably.
5
@Mari I'm glad you enjoyed the outdoor dining in the summer and early fall, but our mayor in his wisdom has shut that down except for the Market Square area until next summer. So no, not much outdoor dining. My husband and I dined at Carroll's Creek last week and we were one of two couples outside in their covered portico. The restaurant was packed inside. The servers were masked but no one else was.
1
To anti-vaxxers: There is no turkey, stuffing, gravy or apple pie in the ICU.
238
@H. Clark And those freedoms that people state a mask affects are not to be found while connected to a ventilator.
36
@H. Clark
or in the grave.
24
There is on Thanksgiving. No apple pie though, it’s pumpkin.
A radio news story this morning said that as of today’s vaccine deadline for the TSA, 40% are unvaccinated.
That’s like Typhoid Mary working in food service. It’s 100 years later!
122
I cannot understand the people who work in risky, people facing jobs that still refuse the vaccine. Why do they think their coworkers want to work around them all day? Nobody wants to work next to someone who is pretty much guaranteed to catch COVID.
15
The people who choose to remain unvaccinated must deal with the consequences of that. Unfortunately, I won't have much pity for them when they get COVID-19. You can only do so much to save other people from themselves. This pandemic was a very good illustration of why we have so many societal problems. It is so sad that we have so many illogical people in the world. This isn't strictly a problem in the U.S. a cursory glance at the news indicates that the same scenario is playing out in other countries as well.
46
The unvaccinated should be banned from any indoor facility. They can live their life entirely outside where the risk of infecting others is minimal.
77
@Expatriato And banned from flying
10
it's the tens of millions of people who refuse to be vaccinated.
Anybody who thinks this through sees numerous medical personnel, police and fireman, etc., etc. who say I have a right to not be vaccinated, no government can mandate it. You have your rights- yes- and now are increasing covid 19. How interesting people think, and yet they effect the rest of us adversely.
11
What about everyone else’s right not to have to breathe the virus? Oh that’s right, nobody has any rights except the people who fear the vaccine. The rest of us somehow don’t deserve a safe workplace.
11
When historians look back at this pandemic, they will regard the lack of a government (federal & state) mandate for all to be vaccinated, with an exception for medical reasons, as one of the epic failures of American society.
74
Historians won’t look back at this pandemic any more than they look back at the 1918 flu pandemic. One problem with America is that we just forget everything.
4
I’m having a small indoor dinner party this week. I let people know I’m checking vaccination status at the door. There will be lots of ventilation. Toronto Public Health let me know that private indoor parties of up to 25 are allowed and masking and distancing are not required in that scenario. The guests were reassured ahead of time. If rapid tests were available I would do that as well. But I haven’t got that far, maybe I should check into it. Add that task to the list of picking up flowers and getting to the salon. I have an app called Verify Ontario that checks for phoney QR codes on phoney Vaccination Certificates.
Take care of one another. :)
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Pandemic fatigue works both ways. People at large are frustrated by surges and outbreaks, and by pandemic response measures - lockdowns, and testing, quarantine and vaccination mandates. Health officials are fatigued too. Frankly, I don't know how Tony Fauci still does it - having predictions about "when it will be all over" extorted from him by the media, making those predictions conditional on people following testing, masking, vaccination, etc measures - knowing quite well that they wouldn't, having insults and threats hurled at him because his predictions didn't come true, and being extorted for a new round of predictions. Personally I'm way past thinking that we can have an efficient pandemic response short of spraying Paxlovid (Pfizer's protease inhibitor anti-viral) from crop-dusters. By now we have formed two tracks - those who have been vaccinated willingly and eagerly, and who welcome boosters to keep themselves safe, and those who actively resist this pandemic-driven incursion of science and rational thinking into their lives. From this point solutions have to be solely pharmacological. Fighting people on the Q train over wearing masks only aerosolizes virus particles and anger.
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The real question should be why is the FDA taking so long to approve the anti viral Molnupiravir and Paxlovid. Both have been shown effective.
4
Thankful to the Intensive care unit (ICU) doctors, nurses, pharmacists, Gilead, Regeneron, family and friends who contributed to my survival from severe COVID infection a year ago on November 22, 2021 when the second peak of COVID infection was taking shape, before the roll out of vaccines for the general US public.
As a virologist, I am terribly disappointed that US and European COVID cases are ticking upwards once more. I envisioned that the vaccines and the antivirals would one day boot COVID out of our planet. Sorry to see my vision looks more distant than before. Luckily though for those who are currently hospitalized brush with death seems to be rare or less than 1%. Another sad thing is that many of the COVID positive patients are currently experiencing post COVID symptoms ranging from brain fog to suicidal thoughts due to torment of Tinnitus.
Despite over over 70% of US population considered "fully immunized" against COVID, after receiving 2 doses of Pfizer or ModeRNA or a single dose of Johnson and Johnson many are testing positive for COVID and are even being hospitalized and spreading infection. There are reports that the definition of "fully immunized" is about to change. Boosters are now offered to every adult currently as an admission that the previous vaccine doses are inadequate to provide full protection and that boosting antibody levels ensures better protection.
There is an increasing call for second generation of vaccines closely simulating infection.
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@Girish Kotwal In my post I meant year ago on November 22, 2020 and NOT November 22, 2021.
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@Dan Boston. I am an optimist and a realist in addition to being a virologist. As far as I know COVID has NOT been isolated so far from any animal host. Yes coronaviruses will be around in animals like bats and a variety of bats and vampires. The real batman Professor Kunwar Prasad Bhatnagar who had a diverse collection of bats passed away last week. I never knew that there are so many bats in nature all around the world. In Dr. Bhatnahgar's collection there was a bat with a wing span of an eagle and size of a fox and is called the flying fox Pteropus giganteus.
I agree that booster shots alone will NOT eradicate COVID. Booster shots basically boost antibosy levels/immunity temporarily. In order to eradicate COVID one needs a systematic multi-pronged approach. It could work in a decade just like it worked for SARS-CoV-1 which made its rounds in 2003-2004.
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@Dan Many medical professionals including TFG’s nemesis have stated we may need to be vaccinated against covid year after year as we do for influenza as covid is here to stay.
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Why doesn't this article specify whether the hospitalized are vaccinated or not? Without that, this is a vague, uninformative, but alarmist article. News about surges by this time should be digging into whether those hospitalized in a given surge are vaccinated, boostered, etc, as well as their age breakdown. We can all see from the maps that there are surges, but the particulars matter.
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@Colleen
Look under" Latest Maps and Data" on the NYT home page, then scroll down.
It has graphics showing age breakdowns and vaxed vs unvaxed hospitalization and death rates.
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NYT graphs for vaccinated and unvaccinated infection and hospitalization rates are not up to-date. They do not show the last month or recent uptick.
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I think Americans (and the world) have to just decide for themselves how to proceed with this.
I’m vaccinated. When my kids are eligible they will be as well. At that point I’m ready to just go and live my life. I can’t control the unvaccinated but once I’m protected I’d like to feel normal again.
My point is that we all need to decide when we are comfortable being out there maskless or just with friends and family. For me it’s when my family is fully vaccinated. For others I am sure it’s different.
As for the unvaccinated. They are the least protected. At this point that is their choice. Our government is too weak to take the necessary steps that would force these people to make the best choice for all of us.
In the absence of that leadership I’ve made my calculation. All the readers should as well. And we should stop wasting time and energy being upset over the unvaccinated. Let it go.
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@Greg: I went to the supermarket last night, and my estimate is 7/8 people, including checkout staff, were maskless. They were tough to avoid. But I do have to eat.
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@L Try delivery. We do it from Whole Foods but every venue has something like Instacart. I've only been inside a Whole Foods once and that was last summer when the virus was supposedly waning.
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Immune compromised individuals will need to take precautions the rest of their lives. And they did before this. Covid is not the only infectious disease that is a threat to those that are immune compromised.
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Since we’re all telling “I know I guy” stories here, here’s mine.
I know a guy who got both his COVID shots in the late Spring. In the lSummer he got Delta. He had a few symptoms. Didn’t have to be hospitalized.
But now he has long COVID, suffers random, ever-moving-and-disappearing heart-attack-like and joint pain symptoms. His doctor is worse than useless, telling him there is nothing she can do and doesn’t know any research hospital teams working with long COVID.
Our expert professionals sometimes just seem to be in it for the money now, and not because they actually have much curiosity or compassion.
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@Frank Your guy's doctor told him that there is nothing they can do...and they don't know any studies on long Covid at this time.....not surprising, since Covid hasn't been with us very "long", and all the health professionals I know have been working around the clock to keep people alive. Why would you say that health professionals are in it for the money?
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Or maybe they are just really busy
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@Frank
Our daughter is a physician. She and others were the first to treat hospitalized COVID cases in Seattle in late Feb, early March 2020. The experience of seeing COVID pts suffering, the long hours, the staffing shortages, the unknowns about transmission and treatment were beyond exhausting. In it for the money? There are many better, easier ways to earn money, believe me, Our daughter worked until her 7th month of pregnancy and put in long hours because of staffing shortages. As to the assumption that physicians have no compassion - they have compassion fatigue. Our daughter was told by one young man that he would look her up and kill her when he got out of the hospital. How much of this garbage is anyone supposed to take and not build up a professional distance? Now that she is on maternity leave, I asked her not to go back to that horrible environment. It's like a war zone. As for long COVID, hindsight will always be a posture of wisdom. Maybe in a year or so we can make assumptions about long COVID, a new phenomena. This is uncharted territory, an unknown pandemic. We are finding out new data about it and its spread and it's long term consequences as we go along, I feel for Fauci. I know one of his family members. Even when he was in TFG's good graces in the beginning of this pandemic, he was getting death threats. Every health care professional is doing the best they can under very difficult conditions. They are only human.
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All I need to do is think back at the FDA “Advisory Committee “ meeting mid-September when the verdict was NOT to authorize boosters, because US data, that were 2 months out of date showed that the initial vaccinations still worked, although protection was already waning.
Meanwhile Fauci extrapolated the data, saw Thanksgiving coming up and strongly promoted boosters already mid-August. He was vilified, as usual, and accused of political meddling. Nevermind the writing on the wall could not have been clearer.
Nonetheless, even Fauci knows that he cannot stop the holidays again this year. He did all he could, to make them as save as possible. It was the short-sighted and over-bureaucratic FDA that threw him and us a bad curveball here.
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Covid is more dangerous for people older than 65 years old with underlying health conditions. WSJ (11/22/2021) just published an article today, "Breakthrough cases examined." It shows that 65+ had 19.75% hospitalized, 4.22% admitted to ICU, and 2.74% died.
Health agencies generally define fully vaccinated as two weeks beyond a second mRNA vaccine or a single J&J shot.
One statement in the article hit me hard. "You have to be humble in the face of Covid." I am not sure how many people will accept that - without vaccination or no masks.
14
i was in Utah earlier this month, and in Alaska in July. sad to say, but it appeared to me that people in both places acted like either the pandemic was over, or there was no pandemic in the first place. when i wore a mask inside people actually either asked me why i was wearing one, or told me it wasn't necessary.
as they say, we make our beds...
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I’ve noticed this too. Huge disparity in attitudes and practices. Have seen almost no precautions in the South and in rural areas, while people are still taking precautions elsewhere. Why not still wear a mask in crowded indoor areas. Combined with vaccinations, this would provide very low transmission.
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@gene99
A friend in St George had COVID. The LDS apparently discourages precautions such as vaxxing and masks.
4
Welcome to a world with endemic Covid. With an infectivity that approximates that of chicken pox, constantly emerging new variants, and eventually waning immunity among both the vaccinated and those with natural immunity, the virus will always find enough “dry wood” to spread and find new hosts, and thus create seasonal surges. this is the new normal for the foreseeable future. The event horizon is a lot further away than most people realize.
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@Eric Michaeleen Ducleff of NPR had a report in August 2021 about the infectivity/contagiousness of the Delta variant. It has an RO of 7 vs. 10 for chicken pox and 18 for measles. So not as infectious as chicken pox but still the most infectious of the respiratory diseases.
1
We have been ultra careful up to now. I am having eleven family members over for dinner. The seniors are boosted, the vaccinated middle agers are exposed through work, one sixteen year old grandson is not vaccinated by his choice, although the rest of his family is. We are not testing prior to the gathering, except for the sixteen year old. Masking is ridiculous when you are drinking and eating all day and then having dinner. Outdoors does not work in Minnesota in November. I will open a few windows, but that's about it. I am somewhat worried, but I just can't skip another holiday.
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@Oh please Why can't you skip another holiday for the health and safety of your family and community? Why the risk-taking?
4
My small hospital in SE Michigan has as many cases as anytime in the past three surges. Most health care workers are fed up, exhausted, disgusted and outright angry. Unfortunately many are still in the cult of ignorance and hate, many blame the wrong guy.
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small gatherings where everyone is boosted. best we can do right now
6
I’m vaccinated and scheduled to get a booster on Friday. Maybe I’m the only one, but I’m at the point where I just don’t care if the unvaxxed decide to stay unvaxxed. I continue to wear a mask in public and be cautious. I understand the the risk of mutations and the need of government at all levels to continue messaging. Yet at this point those adults saying no to the shots aren’t generally going to change their minds. I personally know several people who died of COVID because they wouldn’t take the vaccine. I read in the news daily about unvaccinated people on ventilators in our local hospitals. I used to feel badly for their suffering. Now, I don’t at all. They chose their path. This is Darwinism playing out before our eyes.
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The only change we should make is to stop treating any unvaccinated adult.
12
@J Naw, make them pay for their hospitalization.
9
@J ...or perhaps have insurance with high (say $20K) deductibles.
9
It’s really frustrating to read an article full of opinions. The WSJ neatly summarized the percentage of breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated persons categorized by age groups. The WSJ had percentage of Hospitalization of the same categories and Deaths. The only drawback was that this study was done 224,000 health records.
With enormous overhead costs we pay for Healthcare, can’t we have a much bigger sample space for studies such as the one above, so that epidemiologists don’t use expressions such as “210 mph curveballs” when trying to understand COVID-19?
Wonder if a baseball can curve at 210 mph?
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@Daniel Edwin
We don't need a larger sample size, we need people to stop dismissing facts as mere opinion while simultaneously offering their unlearned opinions as fact.
18
Wow.. still only 60% of people vaccinated in U.S. Covid won't be going away anytime soon, and there's a good chance we'll see new and more dangerous mutations of the virus.
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@mike we’re not anywhere near where we need to be which is simply absurd given the easy availability but with billions around the world unvaccinated, mutations aren’t a risk that goes away even if we were. As you said, Covid isn’t going away anytime soon.
18
@mike here in MI, around 60% of adults are vaccinated, and conservatively at least 25-30% of the population has already had Covid. And yet cases here are through the roof, the numbers are worse than they have ever been. What that tells me is that herd immunity is never going to be a “thing” with this virus. It’s here to stay for the long term.
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@Eric
Makes you wonder when people will realize the only battle is against the virus.. it's not some silly fight between pro & anti vaccers..
4
If the dumb folk of America holding out against vaccines wouldn't view the choice through a political lens, everyone, including they, would be enjoying a safer Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, people in this country can't seem to get out of each other's way, and put politics and sham patriotism above everything, including their own health and safety. At this point, if you aren't vaccinated, and get COVID, you really should have to pay for that ICU bed yourself without insurance.
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@Edward Fellowes. Perhaps that's a little unrealistic...
But what about mandating a 50% increase in health insurance premiums on the eligible unvaccinated. Or perhaps it could be applied retrospectively on those unvaccinated requiring hospital treatment who go on to recover.
14
@Londoner How about a 300% increase? That ought to convince them. These are the folks causing community spread and prolonging this pandemic. There is also no national health service in the US, other than the Affordable Care Act. The burden of being unvaccinated must sit with those who opt to forgo a vaccine they can easily access.
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@Londoner -
Delta Airlines reimburses unvaccinated employees less for company-sponsored health insurance than it does for vaccinated employees … one step in the right direction.
16
This disease is going to be with us forever, and it will continue to mutate. We have an effective vaccine — it’s not perfect, but it’s extremely protective. We have masks — they can be worn in crowded, poorly ventilated places like stores to control the spread. We’ll soon have a powerful treatment medication.
We really can’t afford to halt the economy again, and those Americans who are already up in arms (sometimes literally) about vaccines and masks are not budging in their ignorance. It’s terrible that their intransigence is exhausting our healthcare workers, but that’s not going to change.
So we all have to assess our risk levels, take appropriate precautions, and get back to normal.
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@Elizabeth A Perfectly said.
5
@Elizabeth You provide such a logical analysis of the virus and give a cool headed solution - only wondering if you had a child who got long term Covid or watched a parent die after being infected by someone unvaccinated?
Didn’t think so…
26
I hear no mention of halting the economy. There hasn’t been lockdowns in the US in over a year. This was an article about if it safe to travel and mix in doors with family members. The answer was- yes, pretty much so, if you are vaccinated.
14
If everyone was vaccinated - hospitalizations and deaths would be almost nonexistent - though the whole world needs to be vaccinated before everyone is safe - some people are just not team players. Ignorance kills.
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@Russell 🏀 🐕 The anti-science unvaccinated are "team players" willing to die for their their "team," it is just that their "team" is the Republican party, not the United States
13
You can get Covid again. So if you haven’t been boosted now is a good time. My family still wears masks - masking works.
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@Deirdre masks have their place in crowds, with at risk groups, to protect from other things too of course but they’re naturally only effective when used and even then have obvious limits.
vaccines are the path out of this.
5
We don't hear much these days about herd immunity, which was a speculative goal at the start of the pandemic. Has this been dismissed as unrealistic or unachievable? I've been waiting for a piece that explores the current thinking by epidemiologists regarding whether or not herd immunity is any longer a viable concept. One thing is clear though, two-thirds vaccinations rates doesn't get us there.
12
@Bill Ryan iirc, herd immumity does not apply to the delta variation because people can catch it more than once.
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@Bill Ryan
US vaccination rate is 59%.
That’s what’s got us here.
27
@Bill Ryan Herd immunity cannot happen with a virus that infects the immune ... even mildly. This is going to be endemic like a bad cold. Some will continue to die. Vaccines make death less likely but this is NOT smallpox and will NOT go away... ever!
13
In any case, things are getting better. This will be the last quasi-serious winter. And if you look at the number of deaths and hospitalizations, it’s already better. Most people will get vaccinated, and the rest will catch it. And/or, others, both.
My summer was fine enough. I planned it that way. For the winter I will stay home.
There will still be suffering, but there always has been, since forever. I too will suffer one day, a least a little bit before I die. That’s life.
If you look around you can see some people have already gone back to living their lives. If you take a train to the countryside, you need to wear a mask in the train, but not for the hike outside to the top of the mountain, after you arrive at your destination.
24
@David Martin How sensible! In Oakland, one still sees (or sees again after the summer hiatus) people driving by themselves in their cars with a mask on (not Lyft drivers by any means) or walking down an empty street or even hiking in the hills. Taking things to extremes is somehow comforting to some?
3
Get yourself vaccinated, and stop worrying about what everyone else does. This country really needs to learn how to mind its own business again.
30
Pithy, but when other people’s business can make me sick, it becomes my business.
303
But, that’s not how disease transmission and mutation works. What ever happened to community and love thy neighbor? Get the vaccination, protect each other. Vaccinate to protect small children, immunocompromised, and those with a legitimate medical reason for not tolerating the vaccine. We cannot mind our own business when a contagious, deadly pandemic continues to kill, disable, and evolve.
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@Reasonable Person
This is a public health emergency.
We can only defeat Covid if everyone does their part.
So far, thanks in large part to Trump & the GOP, Covid’s winning.
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What a shame if all of the lives lost (particularly the dedicated efforts of healthcare workers), dollars spent (and lost) and the fact-based efforts of the the scientists and epidemiologists, is undone by the holidays.
Look at where Austria is right now going into lockdown again. Portugal experienced a huge setback last Jan/Feb from all of the holiday gatherings that took place here but has bounced back with one of the highest vax rates in the world.
What hubris.
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@Expat done with the US! And now cases are exploding in Portugal too.
1
@R Not sure about "exploding"--but you are correct that with some tourists here again, yes, cases are up.
4
@Expat done with the US! See it on https://ourworldindata.org/
You can see that Portugal now has 193 cases/million. higher than that of Italy (150). And the curve is rising steeply. That is what is meant by 'exploding'. The shape of the curve. Cases are up when you have a small bend of the curve upwards
1
We are done with this. We really tried. There are still about 100 million who aren't vaccinated. The virus is tearing through that population. It will go anywhere there are vulnerabilities it can exploit.
We see that the deep south is not experiencing as much virus as the upper midwest. That's because so many were infected down south that some semblance of herd immunity has been established. That's the hard way to do it. Much cheaper, easier, and infinitely safer to just get the shot.
Covid is now endemic to the human population. We will never get rid of it. It most likely will be treated like the flu, with annual shots. Only about half of the population gets flu shots, so there will always be ample opportunities for Covid and its future variations.
Now that the kids can get vaccinated, we will probably see mask mandates fall away soon after the first of the year. Hopefully, the under five year olds can get their shots by spring.
We are no longer the nation that rushed to the doctor to get immunized. We are a nation full of anti-science, anti-vax, pro-conspiracy, politically duped people. This is our reality. Protect yourself. That's all you can do. The rest will suffer and die. I've had three shots.
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@Bruce Rozenblit
Are lower cases in deep south due to some immunity from prior infection or due to comfortable temperatures that keep people outdoors? Scientists still don't understand the disease dynamics. You don't know either.
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@Robert
Why can't both conditions be true?
44
@Bruce Rozenblit cases started rising again here in Arkansas 2 weeks after Halloween. It's now chilly enough to bring people back inside much of the time. I'm in a county with at least 1 in 6 having been infected and 1 in 249 died. Cases up 25% in 2 weeks. 8% positive test rate. Hospitalization rate still a bit behind. Some other counties are worse. Vax rate behind state average even though a lot of retirees and abundant locations to get vaxed.
I expect a wave to hit here again as has happened before. Less populated areas seemed to believe they were safe as they didn't see as many people. No, the waves just took longer and then spread fast as few masked or vaxed. It's like watching a series of tsunamis approaching and crashing, flood waters hitting the higher spots and then washing down to lower levels.
90
If i were an Austrian who was fully vaccinated i would book a one way ticket to the states to live the next 6 weeks. This has gone so far beyond any of the goalposts that we were initially fed “slow the spread”. Trying to stop a respiratory virus is just not possible you may delay it a tiny bit at the expense of destroying everything else. People need to stop letting epidemiologist make any more input into our future.
15
A friend of mine is an anesthesiologist. The other day he put a 46 year old unvaccinated guy on a ventilator, who died a little later. Another guy I know, in his late sixties with a heart condition, with both shots and a booster, caught a breakthrough infection from another vaccinated person and died a couple of days ago. The Delta variant is not fulling around. It is dead serious.
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@Dale Irwin it should be said though, that though occasional people with vaccinations get bad cases, it's very very very rare.
That gets underplayed.
Vaccines work.
28
@Charles And again most bad breakthrough cases happen to those who are over 65, usually with other health problems as well.
9
Clearly, the *main* reason for the covid increase, yet another time, is transmission from to/ from all the anti-vaxxer zealots.
Not only do they get covid at a higher rate (and often get much more sick), but they also transmit it to others, even if they claim to be asymptomatic. And the fact that the virus can spread this way, is a prime reason why covid keep mutating into other strains -- the Delta variation most recently.
If everyone had been vaccinated, covid would be mosly old news as an ongoing pandemic and a major disruptor of the world economy. That's what happened with polio, smallpox, and various other disease scourges where science essentially erradicated them -- thanks to strict rules for vaccinations and sane citizens complying for the greater good -- not to mention their own good.
Unless there's a strict regime of vaccination -- with stay-at-home lockdown for those refusing to be vaccinated, such as Austria has had to implement, covid could linger for years, killing people and disruption virtually every aspect of life.
178
Cases are important indicators. But the main goal here is to prevent hospitalizations and deaths. Vaccines seem to be doing their job at limiting these outcomes. Thank you to The NY Times for your excellent presentation of these data.
34
Such a shame that so many of the serious cases we will see here could be avoided with a few simple, well proven shots. Yet here we are, in for another rough holiday season along with many parts of the world too.
Hopefully this will, at last, be the point where we focus our attention on getting past this for the long term. No more hoping short term restrictions will zero out cases, they won’t. No more calls to keep people apart, that ship too has sailed for so many, even most of the docs and experts here are apparently aboard.
It’s time to accept that we won’t eradicate covid so we have to make it as trivial as we can. Thankfully the vaccines are great and, with now a booster when needed, letting us avoid serious cases to protect lives, healthcare resources, the at risk, and get past the worst of this.
It’s the best were going to find to balance the serious risk with what is clearly a changing attitude. No more pass on skipping out.
10