Life in Turkey Now: Tough Talk, but Fears of Drug Shortages

Erdogan and trump! (Orban, putin, etc., etc.!) They are totalitarian comrades in arms destroying the world economy just for the political fun of it!

I see two leaders acting like spoiled children. Really Gentlemen?

Canada, Mexico, Cuba, China, North Korea, Russia, Europe. Sanctions and tariffs - euphemisms for economic warfare calculated in most cases to terrorize the general public. Analogous to the fire bombing of Dresden or the Blitz on London.

Just like the broken Iran deal that made Kim apprehensive and smarter and gave us a meaningless agreement with NK, Trump's attempt to sink Turkey is going to affect how many countries, including allies, would now look at their US relationship in terms of similarly possible risks and dangers making the embrace of Russia and/or China look more attractive even if only as a precaution.

It is not a currency problem as it seems from the article - it is more of a debt problem. From all the interviews made here, none of these guys look shaky or rather they seem confident and obviously they had these problems before as well. On the one hand, interest rate has to go up little higher after taking REER into consideration. On the other hand, the devaluation of lire is a reality to boost exports to other countries (e.g. exports to US is only $10 billion). Any hard decision on the part of the Turkish Govt. is definitely not desirable in a matured economy like Turkey. So, it is a balancing act, but it has to be done faster...

At least they are not tied to the Euro, so the Lira devaluation will cause inflation and recession in spending, but at least their exports will be cheaper and tourists will come back with better value.

I'm no economist, but isn't it easier to pay back debt during inflation because your debt is worth less? The article should clarify that the situation is reversed here because much of the borrowing is in dollars or other foreign currency.

In addition to other mistakes, Erdogan has ruined Taksim Square, formerly a lovely open place, with that mosque. Erdogan is no more a true Muslim than Trump is a true Christian. His endless construction of mosques is the equivalent of buying indulgences in the Middle Ages.

Turkey sits at the crossroads between Europe and Asia. Throughout history it has been the key to the Middle East. During the Great Game, the country that controls Turkey has had the best shot at controlling the Middle East. It has the second largest army in NATO. Despite the alarming turn to despotism, it remains a secular democracy. Ceding Turkey for the sake of maybe - maybe - a few thousand jobs in the US is nothing short of a monumental strategic blunder. The only true explanation I can consider is that this is more of Trump doing Russia's bidding. With Turkey in their camp, Russia controls the endgame in Syria, and with that can finally realize their ambition of having a port in the Mediterranean. I never thought I would think this, but if Mike Flynn were still National Security Advisor, at least this particular disaster would not be unfolding.

This Turkish lira devaluation didn't just happen because of Trump and a detained US pastor. When Erdogan was first elected President in 2014, it took about 2 Turkish lira to buy a US dollar, now it takes more than 6, a big problem for a country borrowing heavily in US dollars. The crisis has been building for years, helped along by the religious fundamentalism being imported from Saudi Arabia. Any bailout money is more likely to come from that direction than the IMF, in return for becoming a useful dependent of the kingdom.

The Turkish people threw away their future when they opted for an Islamic Theocratic Dictatorship by electing and re-electing Erdogan. The Ottoman Empire will rise again. Democracies are lost at the ballot box - as we are finding out here.

Investors will not return to Turkey, business leaders warn, until the country enacts major structural reforms that would undo many of Mr. Erdogan’s constraints. Those would include allowing a free press, an independent judiciary and returning powers to Parliament. Another step, the release of political prisoners, would help repair relations with Europe.

Low interest rates have induced binge borrowing. Total world debt is $162 Trillion compared to world GDP of about $78 Trillion. Both the borrowers and the lenders ignored the risk. The chickens are coming home to roost. Turkey is not the only country with heavy debt load. There may be domino effect. Party on the borrowed money may be coming to end. Stay tuned!

"But the Arab Spring — seen here (in Turkey) as the consequence of American policy — led to civil war in Syria..." Duh! Is there any other way to see it?

Make Totalitarian Economic Incompetence Great Again Trump-Putin-Erdoğan 2018

Great news the bullie of Turkey is being bullied by D T and it’s very good news for democracy for the Turkish people for the future

"economists say could be near a breaking point." Couldn't happen to a nicer place. Reminded that Turkey a NATO member with nuclear weapons stationed within, has no problem cozying up to and ordering a new Russian S-400 missile system, all while telling the world how they were against daesh while buying their oil making sure they would be able to continue to pay their terrorists. Here's hoping that the NATO players are smart enough to get the nuclear weapons out before Erdogan demands a ransom.

Easy solution: get rid of your dictator Erdogan

Turkey's woes, though largely of its own making, are worth pondering even as America goes over the deficit cliff to pay for country club tax cuts. The first step, for both countries, should be to get rid of their neo-fascist demagogues. There's no substitute for truth, integrity and real democracy. The rest is a short road to calamity.

If the Trump properties debt is in Liras, and they get paid by international travelers in dollars, crashing the Lira makes perfect economic sense. Genius.

There is a point in these crises where no increase in interest rates will stop the capital outflow. We saw this clearly in Asia two decades ago, where all the afflicted countries except Malaysia followed the IMF recipe and raised interest rates a lot. Result: the capital outflow continued and the sky-high interest rates killed what was left of the domestic economy -- that is, the worst of both worlds. Malaysia didn't raise interest rates, it experienced the same capital outflow, but the domestic economy did not tank as much and the recovery began much sooner. Turkey's economic policies over the last few years have been disastrous by any standard, any theory, all history. It would be an ironic shame if they now, too late, reverted to orthodoxy and made things even worse. It's time to let the lira float, endure the hardships that will entail, but then pay attention to fostering a domestic economy. Which does NOT include sky-high interest rates. "Who does not study history, repeats it."

This is what happens when you elect a "strong man" who takes upon himself the entire power of the state: his ruinous whims and poor decisions can easily send easily send your economy into the toilet and turn your nation into a pariah on the world stage. The same thing has happened with Putin in Russia and will almost certainly happen here in the U.S. if our congressional majority doesn't place a muzzle on the tweeter-in-chief.

The happiness of living better on borrowed money is a short term experience. Like the drug user who feels better after the shot, there is a short period of pleasure. Paying down the debt, like cold turkey, is what is a reality that people avoid. "Don't be so negative" some say about borrow and spend. But like the story of the Pied Piper of Hamlin, the piper must be paid. Remember, the penalty of not paying is the loss of the children / the future. Better to be very moderate in debt binging.

I can remember when, as a business person on assignment, I travelled Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Egypt and Pakistan feeling quite at ease and welcomed rather than hated. I am glad to be retired now. I would not enter one of those countries these days for any reason. Some regard this as progress, i guess.