One of the problems is arrogance on the part of the people who move into poorer areas and believe they are smarter and more educated so they will call the police for just about anything. Someone sitting on a stoop they will threaten to call the police. So they create an antagonism. Also why move into a poor neighborhood? Take Bushwick, Brooklyn for example, that area once had lots of crime and now we see newcomers who are willing to pay outrageous rents. A lot of times they are really roommates. So they pool their money together and the greedy landlord prefers to rent to them than to a poor family. So that creates more resentment. Also I have read in the local papers where one same woman was burglarized twice when she left her window open and someone entered by the fire escape. Also some of these people come from other states with low crime. So they walk down streets in the wee hours of the morning or ride the train way past midnight then either get robbed or beaten up. Then when one writes a comment in the local papers about how clueless these people are they respond that people should be able to walk in any park or on any street at any hour of the night. That's like saying I should have the right to go swimming at night in a lake known to have alligators.
10
"You seem to think there's some exact right balance where you will be happy and someone who makes less than you will be able to stick around and make the neighborhood gritty and colorful enough to assuage your guilt as you drink a four dollar cup of coffee."
the reader who posted the above understands the liberal mindset and why liberals are never happy. or maybe they are happy because they can always something to grumble about whatever the situation.
e.g. welcome to the Upper West side where white liberals live in million dollar co-ops while complaining about the homeless and welfare hotel residents pissing in the street in front of their buildings.
the reader who posted the above understands the liberal mindset and why liberals are never happy. or maybe they are happy because they can always something to grumble about whatever the situation.
e.g. welcome to the Upper West side where white liberals live in million dollar co-ops while complaining about the homeless and welfare hotel residents pissing in the street in front of their buildings.
10
When Hispanics displace black people in cities, crime goes down. Go figure.
8
Before we let the NY Times give the wealthy gentrifying class credit for reducing the crime rate in the inner city, lets think about that. Why is crime so often violent in the inner city? Drug/Weapon/Human (and other sorts of) Trafficking that serves the demands of the wealthy who purchase expensive drugs and fuel the drug wars that plague the inner city's low income neighborhoods. Yes, crime might decrease in a gentrifying neighborhood because of increased police presence, but the police are protecting the wealthy demographic that's ultimately responsible for the trafficking. Now they do more of their drugs in the city instead of the suburbs.
4
I see the return to city neighborhoods as a quality of life choice. Suburban isolation, needless commutes and homogeneous culture feeds a desire for connecting with vibrant, accessible communities and a sense of belonging. Jane Jacobs saw this coming over 50 years ago. It took a generation for the malcontent to see the light.
9
Could it be that lower crime rates are, to some extent, the result of gentrification? More people with resources moving in, more investment in a community, a greater likelihood of increased police presence all would work to ultimately lower those statistics. As they go lower, the rate of gentrification increases. That was the plan in NYC at least during the age of "Urban Homesteading" in late seventies to early eighties.
7
Randolph Mom New Jersey 12 hours ago
Like it or not IUDs at puberty are the answer to everything. Giving women simple tools will give them the time they need to acquire the education or skills to be independent. No need to judge or force...just make it available, accessible and free
I agree. are there no rich or middle class feminists willing to donate money for this worthy solution?
Like it or not IUDs at puberty are the answer to everything. Giving women simple tools will give them the time they need to acquire the education or skills to be independent. No need to judge or force...just make it available, accessible and free
I agree. are there no rich or middle class feminists willing to donate money for this worthy solution?
11
Hardly a revelation...
Crime rates have always factored into real estate decisions, especially among the 'gentry.'
Crime rates have always factored into real estate decisions, especially among the 'gentry.'
5
Part of the police department is the spearhead of gentrification. The missing story is the relationship between PD and local property owners
1
Crime matters. It matters to victims and potential victims. Young people, and old people too, want to live in close proximity to their peers. We acquire things and we don't want burglars to move in rip us off. We want safe neighborhoods for our children. The crack of a bullet passing overhead is not welcome and the sight of, or even the thought of, a child felled by a stray terrifies us. Crime, and evil beyond our control, are best avoided. No news there.
So we move to neighborhoods we perceive to be the safest we can afford. No news there.
Declining crime is not a predictor of gentrification. It is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for gentrification.
So we move to neighborhoods we perceive to be the safest we can afford. No news there.
Declining crime is not a predictor of gentrification. It is a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for gentrification.
7
There are winners and losers with Gentrification. I would hazard a guess that whites are the majority of the winners.
3
Oh no. Less crime. Let's all be good liberals and hate gentrification.
14
"That may reflect the fact, Ms. Ellen suggested, that lower-income families have more experience or confidence in their ability to navigate crime. Or it may suggest that attention to violence is a luxury in housing decisions that the poor and minorities may not have."
People actually get paid to state the obvious, huh?
People actually get paid to state the obvious, huh?
12
In other words, gentrification is synonymous with social progress.
It's just demonized by the left out of misplaced compassion for poor blacks. Maybe rich blacks should start doing some gentrification of their own, that might make the snowflakes feel better.
It's just demonized by the left out of misplaced compassion for poor blacks. Maybe rich blacks should start doing some gentrification of their own, that might make the snowflakes feel better.
17
Crime rates correlate to so much else, so crime may not be the most interesting predictor of gentrification. There are proxy statistics that could have been used instead that would make the story even more intriguiing. For instance, per capita ambulance call volume probably correlates even more strongly. I modeled ambulance call volume in 1994, the first year that national call volume statistics were available. One violent crime correlated to 3.4 additional ambulance calls. It was the strongest predictor by far of per capita ambulance calls and suggests that violent crime was correlating in a big way to other problems. Anyway, I'd love to see the gentrification statistics correlated to ambulance calls.
3
Look for my email tomorrow. I think I found you, lol.
I have been asking a bunch of researchers for data that would show a similar correlation between drug crime and gentrification. One of the people I was referred to was Ingrid Ellen; I just never got around to emailing her. Your comment about ambulance calls is interesting. Obviously there are lots of influencers on that data. Specifically I'm looking for data that shows that public health interventions to reduce drug related harm has a positive economic impact on the communities the programs are located in. It's pretty obvious an intensive enforcement approach can have a positive correlation to (Legit) future economic activity as measured by housing prices: just look at the East Village and LES in the years after Operation Pressure Point. But enforcement is on its way out; also there are all sorts of negative economic impacts that arise from enforcement-based policies whose costs are distributed across much larger swathes of the population that can't be ignored (prison, health care, the ex factor of lost social cohesion, etc)
I have been asking a bunch of researchers for data that would show a similar correlation between drug crime and gentrification. One of the people I was referred to was Ingrid Ellen; I just never got around to emailing her. Your comment about ambulance calls is interesting. Obviously there are lots of influencers on that data. Specifically I'm looking for data that shows that public health interventions to reduce drug related harm has a positive economic impact on the communities the programs are located in. It's pretty obvious an intensive enforcement approach can have a positive correlation to (Legit) future economic activity as measured by housing prices: just look at the East Village and LES in the years after Operation Pressure Point. But enforcement is on its way out; also there are all sorts of negative economic impacts that arise from enforcement-based policies whose costs are distributed across much larger swathes of the population that can't be ignored (prison, health care, the ex factor of lost social cohesion, etc)
1
They might be "more confident" in their ability to "navigate crime..."
What does that even mean?
What does that even mean?
5
It means they are members of the criminal class and that they are causing the crime by committing it.
3
"“But a huge piece of it,” she said, “I think is crime.”
Love the preamble here, as if she's bringing forth a new, revelatory insight. Thanks, academia.
Love the preamble here, as if she's bringing forth a new, revelatory insight. Thanks, academia.
12
how can the times keep harping on "fact checking trump" to insist that violent crime is down including in chicago while also running lead stories about how violent chicago is becoming, so unprecedently more violent that children are now being shot on the way to school?
pretending that urban crime, or american crime in general, has declined is a bit like being a climate change denier.
pretending that urban crime, or american crime in general, has declined is a bit like being a climate change denier.
11
They are both true, but looking at different time scales. Urban crime has declined, even in Chicago, since the 90s. It is up in a few cities, particularly Chicago, year-over-year, but still no where near what it was twenty years ago.
1
Crime is one way poor people keep wealthier people from pushing them out of desirable neighborhoods.
12
"That may reflect the fact, Ms. Ellen suggested, that lower-income families have more experience or confidence in their ability to navigate crime."
That or more likely they are the people causing the problems to begin with.
That or more likely they are the people causing the problems to begin with.
15
Can I fact check your fact check?
Trump was obviously referring to 2015 data during the campaign as the full 2016 data would not have been available yet. The total number of homicides in Washington DC in 2014 was 105, and in 2015 162 homicides occurred- A 54 percent increase from 2014 to 2015. This time period is relevant because of the "Ferguson effect" on crime rates, if you believe it to be a real phenomenon.
Trump was obviously referring to 2015 data during the campaign as the full 2016 data would not have been available yet. The total number of homicides in Washington DC in 2014 was 105, and in 2015 162 homicides occurred- A 54 percent increase from 2014 to 2015. This time period is relevant because of the "Ferguson effect" on crime rates, if you believe it to be a real phenomenon.
14
Crime correlates with demographics. When the Boomers were young and energetic crime soared. As we aged and mellowed, crime decreased.
My children's generation of new grads share apartments in thriving, safe neighborhoods. When I graduated, I could afford my own apartment, but moved out of the city to buy a home. I think that NYC and many other cities are exciting places. Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore and other are still struggling.
My children's generation of new grads share apartments in thriving, safe neighborhoods. When I graduated, I could afford my own apartment, but moved out of the city to buy a home. I think that NYC and many other cities are exciting places. Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore and other are still struggling.
2
moral of the story: "birds of a feather flock together"
6
Confusing cause and effect? More likely gentrification causes lower crime.
10
Gentrification does not cause lower crime. First the police crack down on crime then that creates an opening for people to gentrify. Once the area is gentrified the new residents will put pressure on the police to maintain a presence which in turn would encourage businesses to move in and creates a cycle. Then that would further help to lower crime.
2
An even better way to get a jump on gentrification is to follow the artists and the gays. When they start moving into and becoming a presence in a neighborhood, you know gentrification is a sure thing.
10
Look for number of coffee shops per block. Correlates to the local writers, poets, and non-day-workers who can afford $4 lattes.
2
The biggest problem with being poor in 21st Century America is not starvation or material deprivation, it's being unable to afford to get away from other poor people.
23
Gentrification, falling crime rates, loss of diversity / poverty, bland and tasteless but safe yuppies are not problems. Problems are when the homeless camp out in the streets outside sky high rental palaces and when whole blocks are ghost towns with absentee renters in China and Russia. Empty apartments don't support local businesses. A city composed only of wealthy and homeless is not a healthy city.
10
Oh no, more horrible things white people are doing. Can you believe that white people would actually report crimes to the police? Or make improvements to their homes to make them more valuable? Gosh, they sure are decrepit humam beings for living in places with lower crime.
Gentrification is not racist. Its classist. I cant move to Bushwick, and the reason I cant has nothing to do with race. Im white, so supposedly Gentrification is for me. Unfortunately, like a lot of white people, I dont have a lot of money. I know that sounds unbelievable. I must not have been good at leveraging my white priviledge into the millions of dollars all white people besides me evidently have. Even with my college educated and therefore superior mind, I am unable to move to a place where the rent has more than 4 digits.
Gentrification is not racist. Its classist. I cant move to Bushwick, and the reason I cant has nothing to do with race. Im white, so supposedly Gentrification is for me. Unfortunately, like a lot of white people, I dont have a lot of money. I know that sounds unbelievable. I must not have been good at leveraging my white priviledge into the millions of dollars all white people besides me evidently have. Even with my college educated and therefore superior mind, I am unable to move to a place where the rent has more than 4 digits.
64
White people and others who gentrify a neighborhood will report more crime and if the police need information or witnesses they will co operate with the police to capture the perpetrators. In the poor neighborhoods there is a wall of silence which keeps the police unable to solve crimes. Thus there is more crime in poorer neighborhoods.
7
There's 5-digit rent in Bushwick? Coulda fooled me.
2
Jacqueline a lot of the white people who moved to Bushwick don't have a lot of money either. They pool their money together with other whites as roommates. But in doing so they inflate the rental rates of the area that mostly poor people live in. They have been doing the same in Williamsburg. So that is one way for greedy landlords to push long time residents out or simply allow some building to become rat infested and run down so they're forced to leave. Then after they leave they can fix up the apartments and jack up the rents.
3
I moved several times in my life but have never thought of crime when choosing specific places to live. I do know this is an exception in global scale and may even have drawbacks in terms of overall energy, but I like it.
1
I love how the term "gentrification" sounds so nice. I worked as a police officer in a large metropolitan city. Our term for these people was "volunteer victims". These people were not use to the day to day incivility of life in a crowded inter-city neighborhood. The minor acts of vandalism to house, cars, garages, the noise and the occasional gun fire that are part of the area that the residents put up with were new to these people who were use to the life in the burbs.
You would see them unloading the family Lexus SUV that didn't have a scratch on it but would soon have a mirror knocked off, graffiti sprayed on it or the window broke out to get at whatever goodies these people had left on the back seat and the apartment would have been broken into 4 or 5 times before the "urban pioneers" would give up and move out. One woman who was on her 3rd burglary report in 4 months said "Don't "these" people see that we are just good decent people." as if that made a difference to the burglar who lives down the street.
The people that move into to these soon leave to be replace by other "starry eye" mostly liberal, college educated who think that because they have a good heart and everyone that they have every known has the same good intensions that everyone in their neighborhood is like that. Most of these areas without massive amounts of government money (in the form of more police, fire, street repair, parks services),in 10-15 years revert back the low income "ghettos" they were
You would see them unloading the family Lexus SUV that didn't have a scratch on it but would soon have a mirror knocked off, graffiti sprayed on it or the window broke out to get at whatever goodies these people had left on the back seat and the apartment would have been broken into 4 or 5 times before the "urban pioneers" would give up and move out. One woman who was on her 3rd burglary report in 4 months said "Don't "these" people see that we are just good decent people." as if that made a difference to the burglar who lives down the street.
The people that move into to these soon leave to be replace by other "starry eye" mostly liberal, college educated who think that because they have a good heart and everyone that they have every known has the same good intensions that everyone in their neighborhood is like that. Most of these areas without massive amounts of government money (in the form of more police, fire, street repair, parks services),in 10-15 years revert back the low income "ghettos" they were
19
You attitude is exactly the problem with policing today. The chickens have come home to roost.
My experience was just the opposite. I am a white woman, and moved to what was then a predominantly black neighborhood back in the 1980s. The police did not respond to calls reporting gunfire - or anything else. I was one of five women mugged at the corner of my block in six weeks. I was the only white victim. The police had made no effort to catch the mugger, despite the fact that each victim had filed a complaint with identical descriptions of him. I was the only victim the cops asked, "What's a nice person like you doing living in a neighborhood like this?" They suggested I should move out. The sixth victim, who was black, did what the prior five hadn't: she screamed bloody murder. A pair of football playing sons of a neighbor heard her, caught the guy in the act, and sat on him until the police arrived. Somehow, in the struggle, the football players had accidentally broken his legs, and that was the end of the muggings. And PS, every victim was "college educated." The notion that nobody "liberal," or with a college education, resides in un-gentrified areas speaks to the same condescending and dismissive attitude I got from the police when filing my report all those years ago. We didn't need "more government money." We needed the same police attention that upper income neighborhoods received. And now that the area has gentrified, we've got it.
7
It all changed after 9/11. These neighborhoods don't "go back." The militarized state is "gentrification."
1
I am a professional architect and urban planner, retired. When I was in graduate school in the mid-1960s, it was commonly observed that an urban neighborhood was a decent place to live if there was no broken glass in the street and women were seen jogging alone. Still true!
17
About this? As part of our neoliberal system, Wall Street devises schemes to extract wealth (and profit) from the public. From that you get "complex" financial instruments, colletarized mortgage obligations, and other investment products (mostly fraudulent). Those products are sliced-and-diced and sold to the unsuspecting public (and institutions).
Blacks, Hispanics and other minorities are targeted with predatory mortgage practices as we head toward the 2008 financial crisis. In the aftermath of the crisis, caused by Wall Street fraud, millions (of mostly) Blacks, Hispanics, and others, many living in the inner cities, lose their homes or their mortgages go "underwater."
A second bubble emerges (we're in the middle of it) led by a tech boom, and Fed's QE, AND the infusion of money from anonymous LLCs (many controlled by criminals, tax cheats, and the like) and predatory private equity firms who go into a buying spree, acquiring hundreds of thousands of properties around the country.
Then as these properties are sold at fire-sale prices to investors, and the business environment seems to improve due to the tech boom bubble (and as minorities are further displaced), neighborhoods starts to become gentrified.
Blacks, Hispanics and other minorities are targeted with predatory mortgage practices as we head toward the 2008 financial crisis. In the aftermath of the crisis, caused by Wall Street fraud, millions (of mostly) Blacks, Hispanics, and others, many living in the inner cities, lose their homes or their mortgages go "underwater."
A second bubble emerges (we're in the middle of it) led by a tech boom, and Fed's QE, AND the infusion of money from anonymous LLCs (many controlled by criminals, tax cheats, and the like) and predatory private equity firms who go into a buying spree, acquiring hundreds of thousands of properties around the country.
Then as these properties are sold at fire-sale prices to investors, and the business environment seems to improve due to the tech boom bubble (and as minorities are further displaced), neighborhoods starts to become gentrified.
4
"Wall Street devises schemes to extract wealth (and profit) from the public..."
The scheme is to create value that exceeds the "wealth" (money) businesses "extract" from the public (customers). Use any rhetoric you like - the best system for delivering a wide range of goods is a regulated free market. I don't argue for unregulated markets, I don't argue for free-market mechanisms in all sectors/industries. I don't argue that government has no role redistributing some wealth to provide all with basic necessities and broad opportunities. But your tone and vacuous rhetoric get us no where - Wall Street is not evil and free markets have provided more people with more goods and comfort than any other system ever has.
The scheme is to create value that exceeds the "wealth" (money) businesses "extract" from the public (customers). Use any rhetoric you like - the best system for delivering a wide range of goods is a regulated free market. I don't argue for unregulated markets, I don't argue for free-market mechanisms in all sectors/industries. I don't argue that government has no role redistributing some wealth to provide all with basic necessities and broad opportunities. But your tone and vacuous rhetoric get us no where - Wall Street is not evil and free markets have provided more people with more goods and comfort than any other system ever has.
4
Not entirely evil, but since de-regulation they are largely unprincipled.
2
Perfectly content in the city. It's your fault you wanted a larger house and an hour commute both ways each day.
4
It would be more interesting to me to read about how crime and race are related. It seems obvious to me that there is some causal relationship between the ethnic balance of a neighborhood and its crime rate (and I don't imply there is a causality between race and crime).
At some point, those with the means to demonstrate "gentrification" feel comfortable to actually move in to begin the process. I expect that point is affected by the racial balance of an area.
At some point, those with the means to demonstrate "gentrification" feel comfortable to actually move in to begin the process. I expect that point is affected by the racial balance of an area.
1
Although it is not politically correct to say so, black males under the age of 30, who constitute about 5% or less of the US population, commit 50+% of all crimes.
13
Is that because they are criminal or because white men have deemed black men's behavior criminal?!
White guys sell booze & cigs which kill and maim hundreds of thousands of people per year & blight lives for millions, and they are pillars of the community.
Black guys sell weed and coke, with the latter maybe killing a few hundred a year, and they go to prison.
Where's the sense or justice?
White guys sell booze & cigs which kill and maim hundreds of thousands of people per year & blight lives for millions, and they are pillars of the community.
Black guys sell weed and coke, with the latter maybe killing a few hundred a year, and they go to prison.
Where's the sense or justice?
1
"Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification."
This is why violent crime should have greater priority in being addressed as more than anything else it tends to deepen and concentrate poverty. Once 'white flight' starts taking place the tax base is reduced and the crime creates a spiral of community disintegration where stores, service providers, etc., tend to leave and property values drop. Almost 75% of firearm homicides occur in low income minority neighborhoods, primarily committed with handguns, and have for decades. Instead of being opportunistic about rebuilding the communities cities, if necessary with help from state and the federal government, should plan on taking back such neighborhoods by first eliminating violent crime.
This is why violent crime should have greater priority in being addressed as more than anything else it tends to deepen and concentrate poverty. Once 'white flight' starts taking place the tax base is reduced and the crime creates a spiral of community disintegration where stores, service providers, etc., tend to leave and property values drop. Almost 75% of firearm homicides occur in low income minority neighborhoods, primarily committed with handguns, and have for decades. Instead of being opportunistic about rebuilding the communities cities, if necessary with help from state and the federal government, should plan on taking back such neighborhoods by first eliminating violent crime.
7
" cities, if necessary with help from state and the federal government, should plan on taking back such neighborhoods by first eliminating violent crime."
The best way to eliminate violent crime is by eliminating violent criminals. However, longer sentences or even the death penalty for violent criminals are opposed by "progressives" who would rather release more violent criminals from prison.
The best way to eliminate violent crime is by eliminating violent criminals. However, longer sentences or even the death penalty for violent criminals are opposed by "progressives" who would rather release more violent criminals from prison.
4
As a white male- am I supposed to feel shame when I read this..?
9
I hope I get to move in your neighborhood someday
The problem is: When I move in... y'all move away!
- Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood
The problem is: When I move in... y'all move away!
- Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood
5
I would be curious to see a story on the percentage of international investors who make financial commitments in real estate here which affect our ever changing New York.
1
Let me know when your predictions have credibility again.
9
This pretty much overlooks all of San Francisco and Oakland, home to some of the fastest gentrifying neighborhoods in the country. Crime rates, especially property crimes, are extremely high. San Francisco has the highest per capita property crime rate in the country!
10
I completely agree. I moved away from Oakland 4 months ago because of the crime. You have to be vigilant at all times. My quality of life has been so
improved.
improved.
8
Oakland is absolutely an exception. Home prices in the "flats" are sky high, as is the crime. Our old, charming neighborhood is dotted with terrible rundown apartment complexes teeming with criminals that completely destroy any hope of safety and civility. The slum lords, criminal culture, and the inadequate number of police officers guarantees that this City will be second class for years to come. It's a terrible shame.
6
People are not going back to the inner cities by free choice. Overpopulation has created metropolitan areas where commuting is a nightmare and rather than spend hours on the road, they chose to put up with all the negatives of high density living. Some even brainwash themselves into thinking they like it.
13
I disagree. I'm a 25 year old young professional who chooses to pay a premium to live in uptown Dallas. I pay about $1,800 a month in rent for a 600 square foot 1 bedroom apartment and it is worth every penny. I live within walking distance of everything (restaurants, grocery stores, the best bars in Dallas, friends) and feel safe walking my dog alone at night. It's a nice bonus that I live a 3 minute drive from my office.
4
Afraid what I read above is true. JGAIA
2
@Katie, Uptown is a completely planned area, built along the lines of New Urbanism within the last 15 years. It's mostly apartment complexes with the occasional shops on ground floor/lofts above kinds of buildings scattered in.
Most residents are college grads sharing 2 bed/2 bath apartments until they get married or hit their late 30s. It's overwhelmingly white and white collar.
It is the furthest thing from a high-density, inner-city environment with any sort of negatives. It's like Disney built it.
Most residents are college grads sharing 2 bed/2 bath apartments until they get married or hit their late 30s. It's overwhelmingly white and white collar.
It is the furthest thing from a high-density, inner-city environment with any sort of negatives. It's like Disney built it.
1
Like it or not IUDs at puberty are the answer to everything. Giving women simple tools will give them the time they need to acquire the education or skills to be independent. No need to judge or force...just make it available, accessible and free
25
Very true. I read an article recently that had in it a segment on a homeless woman, about 48 years old, who has 12 children ranging from about 30 down to five years old. And she's complaining that the apartment social services has given her has only one bathroom, and her kids have to wait to use it.
You have to wonder.
IUDs are wonderful things, and should be used.
You have to wonder.
IUDs are wonderful things, and should be used.
10
High crime areas have affordable housing for low income people but people live in constant fear of violence. Low crime areas have no affordable housing for low income people.
3
So then perhaps it would behoove The New York Times to take a look at the gentrifying South Bronx and see what happens since the 40th Precinct saw the only increase in murders in the city and by 55%.
Will gentrification stall? Will investors leave developers hanging?
Will gentrification stall? Will investors leave developers hanging?
4
Stop beating around the bush. It's a case of Black and White.
And that's where the money, and gentrification comes in.
Years ago Whites fled the inner city, taking a more affluent tax-base with them simply because on par, they were earning more.
Now they're coming back into the city, and non-Whites are fleeing because they're effectively being priced out.
In addition to that, there's always better policing in wealthier White neighborhoods -- hence, lower crime.
That's it.
And that's where the money, and gentrification comes in.
Years ago Whites fled the inner city, taking a more affluent tax-base with them simply because on par, they were earning more.
Now they're coming back into the city, and non-Whites are fleeing because they're effectively being priced out.
In addition to that, there's always better policing in wealthier White neighborhoods -- hence, lower crime.
That's it.
8
The real story in DC is that in rundown neighborhoods where gays buy and fix up old places, the areas become much better and businesses readily follow! See Logan Cr., DuPont Cr., 14th Street, U St. Corridor, H St., and now Shaw, Brookland, and SW Waterfront.
9
Same in Chelsea and Hells Kitchen in NYC .
1
Could this be because gays tend to not have children and thus to do not need to move to the suburbs for larger houses and better schools?
6
You can find the poor people, the minorities, and all else at the end of cheap commuter routes at or beyond the outer rim of urban areas. Dormitory towns have bodegas. Country towns have bus stops where Hispanic city workers form queues in the pre-dawn light. The culprit: almost certainly rising rents in the city, preceding and paralleling gentrification.
5
Another article published in the NYT said that there was a trend where those living in the cities were moving out to the suburbs. That's what happened in New Orleans. In the 1960's and 70's east New Orleans was predominantly white middle class. Zip codes 70126, 70127, 70128, and 70129 were mostly white. One development in 70129, in far eastern New Orleans was slightly upper middle class, not quite rich but the houses were bigger and people made more money. There were several high priced developments closer in. This is were I lived and went to school. My classmates lived throughout east New Orleans and I went to their homes.
Today all of those zip codes are predominantly black. New Orleans east became the home of the black middle class but it also transformed into a slum. The flooding from Katrina made it worse. Crime and murder is worse than in many major cites. I am constantly reading of a murder, or a corpse being found in the same neighborhoods where I rode my bicycle.
It was crime that chased the white middle class out of east New Orleans, mostly petty crimes, break-ins, theft, vandalism, etc. Now it's murder, rape, drug crime. The place has been decimated.
It doesn't deserve gentrification because it's in a flood zone and should never have been developed. But the black middle class who now live there are claiming racist policies by the city because merchants and services are not moving back. The black community acts as if they have always been there.
Today all of those zip codes are predominantly black. New Orleans east became the home of the black middle class but it also transformed into a slum. The flooding from Katrina made it worse. Crime and murder is worse than in many major cites. I am constantly reading of a murder, or a corpse being found in the same neighborhoods where I rode my bicycle.
It was crime that chased the white middle class out of east New Orleans, mostly petty crimes, break-ins, theft, vandalism, etc. Now it's murder, rape, drug crime. The place has been decimated.
It doesn't deserve gentrification because it's in a flood zone and should never have been developed. But the black middle class who now live there are claiming racist policies by the city because merchants and services are not moving back. The black community acts as if they have always been there.
8
Criminals are everywhere. Live with it.
4
No worries Ms. Ellen, Trump is going to fix everything and make America great again.
3
Not all gentrifiers move from into newly constructed or renovated housing stock. I would say a significant proportion move into existing units. There are at least some poorer people who are getting displaced. Where do THEY go?
9
I've actually lived this very phenomenon. When I was young, my parents owned a building in a marginal neighborhood. Crime, especially on our block, was very high. There were carjackings, murders, drug dealing. Then the crack epidemic started to recede and crime rates dropped. Suddenly, instead of being a corridor into a park where people went to smoke crack or shoot up, our block started to be viewed as a quaint block of rowhouses right next to a beautiful park. People started to bid on the buildings in the neighborhood, and property values shot up. My parents ended up selling the building for a large profit and moving us to a better neighborhood.
It was a transformative moment in my life. Suddenly, instead of being a family with no cash and a worthless building, we were an upper-middle class family with resources. Gentrification saved my family. It allowed us to afford tutors for my brother and me, and eventually to pay for my brother's and my college education. It's important to remember that there are always two sides to every coin.
It was a transformative moment in my life. Suddenly, instead of being a family with no cash and a worthless building, we were an upper-middle class family with resources. Gentrification saved my family. It allowed us to afford tutors for my brother and me, and eventually to pay for my brother's and my college education. It's important to remember that there are always two sides to every coin.
33
What an interesting twist to the broken windows debate. Broken windows originally stood for the proposition that if you improved a blighted neighborhood the upswing would reduce crime. Beautification along with a lower tolerance of quality of life infractions could create that upswing. The concept has fallen into disfavor due to overzealous enforcement of codes and frisking of minority residents. I always believed there was value to broken windows if well implemented. Thus its heartening to see some validation even if from a more affluent perspective.
9
Unfortunately the US has many potentially violent people. These people are known in their communities,
When they commit crimes, they should be imprisoned. There is no other way to have a civilization.
When they commit crimes, they should be imprisoned. There is no other way to have a civilization.
31
Another Times article announcing the discovery of what everyone has known for decades.
On my recent year-end vacation, I took a pleasant walk through Prospect Heights. I've been exploring Brownstone Brooklyn since the 1970s.
I couldn't help noticing how peaceful the neighborhood was, with no undertone or threat of violence.
That's not the way it was 40 years ago. Back then, you'd constantly be looking over your shoulder to see whether someone was following you.
That kind of change is good for everyone. I don't think that street crime has many aficionados.
On my recent year-end vacation, I took a pleasant walk through Prospect Heights. I've been exploring Brownstone Brooklyn since the 1970s.
I couldn't help noticing how peaceful the neighborhood was, with no undertone or threat of violence.
That's not the way it was 40 years ago. Back then, you'd constantly be looking over your shoulder to see whether someone was following you.
That kind of change is good for everyone. I don't think that street crime has many aficionados.
43
What I find funny is..in the article published "Rift Between Officers and Residents as Killings Persist in South Bronx", I made a comment about how gentrification would be a good thing for the South Bronx...and it was never published.
I'm a big fan of gentrification. You look at cities like Trenton and Camden, they can certainly use a little help. I rather see public housing funding go towards high speed rail like we see in Japan and China to help make places like Erie, Scranton, Cleveland, Rutland etc a lot closer to major cities. I don't think they'll become giant poor urban cess pools either; make it so these cities are just a quick commute on high speed, those with wealth will find opportunities there as well.
Forcing a mixture of populations I never see as a good idea, let the population mix naturally with market forces.
I'm a big fan of gentrification. You look at cities like Trenton and Camden, they can certainly use a little help. I rather see public housing funding go towards high speed rail like we see in Japan and China to help make places like Erie, Scranton, Cleveland, Rutland etc a lot closer to major cities. I don't think they'll become giant poor urban cess pools either; make it so these cities are just a quick commute on high speed, those with wealth will find opportunities there as well.
Forcing a mixture of populations I never see as a good idea, let the population mix naturally with market forces.
11
Falling crime also has the predictor of previously being higher crime
My wife and I used to live in East Harlem, which had high very visible crime (we lived across the street from a school and had a drug dealer and his crew camped out in full view on our stoop, dealing from the laundry in the basement. Somehow the police never worked it out and the building is ripe to now go coop).
Now the Bario's real estate market is exploding and before long the area will fully gentrify.
Where is the crime moving? Mott Haven.
An example of how policing can move crime and work to change one neighborhood, and make another one awful so real estate becomes an attractive investment
My wife and I used to live in East Harlem, which had high very visible crime (we lived across the street from a school and had a drug dealer and his crew camped out in full view on our stoop, dealing from the laundry in the basement. Somehow the police never worked it out and the building is ripe to now go coop).
Now the Bario's real estate market is exploding and before long the area will fully gentrify.
Where is the crime moving? Mott Haven.
An example of how policing can move crime and work to change one neighborhood, and make another one awful so real estate becomes an attractive investment
9
Check your facts, Andrew. I'm pretty sure that Mott Haven has also seen a sharp decline in crime and there are people actively calling out evidence of gentrification there as well.
1
My observations, as someone who grew up in a large inner city area, are that policing increases a year or so before properties begin to be purchased for renovation/sale. First the creatives and students are marketed to, then they are priced out by more affluent settlers. Those who owned either sell up because the homes are too much for their needs, or because they can't afford the increasing property taxes. Most old residents don't get to enjoy the rejuvenated neighborhoods, let alone the freedom that the decrease in crime brings, for very long.
16
Renne your absolutely right in your observations. I see that a lot in the Fort Greene neighborhood that I worked at back in the 90's and now in Brooklyn. Now predominantly white middle upper class in comparison to before. Shame that the old residents can't enjoy the fruits of their rejuvenated neighborhoods.
4
Maybe you are overlooking the possibility that the displacement of the existing tenants is the driving factor in what causes the initial settlement of outsiders to bloom into gentrification?
Maybe it is the presence of those initial outsiders who will actually call the police and cooperate with them when they arrive that causes the initial dip in crime that allows the neighborhood to be reassessed by others as a "gentrification" project?
Maybe it is the presence of those initial outsiders who will actually call the police and cooperate with them when they arrive that causes the initial dip in crime that allows the neighborhood to be reassessed by others as a "gentrification" project?
1
You are assuming original residents didn't call the police. We did, but only when a situation couldn't be handled by someone's family member or friend circle. Anytime, as I can recall police being called, it involved someone who didn't reside in the immediate area, and so had no "people" who could chill them out before things escalated.
1
How to predict gentrification? When the non-chain corner store starts stocking at least 4 different brands of balsamic vinegar. When you see non-white women pushing white children in strollers. When recycling bins are placed next to trash cans. When the local bar now has 10 taps, and they're all craft beer. The real kicker is when you see loft apartments advertised for rental fees that feel like a mortgage payment. I've seen it happen all too frequently here in the DC area. While I welcome the new stores and restaurants, I also know that for every new trendy bar or restaurant opening, for every luxury condo that gets built, that's one more family that will be forced out of the city because they simply can't afford to live there anymore.
35
Indeed. Your concern is touching but all too one-sided. What about the families that left years ago and sold at a huge loss because of the incoming crime wave? Don't they deserve your sympathy, as well? Wasn't the loss of their neighborhood and their way of life at least as tragic? Or maybe not... to you.
As for me? I don't care. Neighborhoods, cities, they all have lifecycles. Unless something becomes owned by an institution or a government. Then... it usually ossifies.
As for me? I don't care. Neighborhoods, cities, they all have lifecycles. Unless something becomes owned by an institution or a government. Then... it usually ossifies.
8
[[Chris Bethesda, MD
How to predict gentrification? When the non-chain corner store starts stocking at least 4 different brands of balsamic vinegar.]] Balsamic vinegar is very tasty...I like a nice selection.
[[When you see non-white women pushing white children in strollers.]] So, what? Those "non-white" women would probably prefer being a nanny and wiping a baby's rear end to working in a nursing home and wiping an old man's rear end.
[[When recycling bins are placed next to trash cans.]] You're against recycling?
[[When the local bar now has 10 taps, and they're all craft beer.]] Craft beer creates jobs...you're against job creation?
[[The real kicker is when you see loft apartments advertised for rental fees that feel like a mortgage payment. I've seen it happen all too frequently here in the DC area. While I welcome the new stores and restaurants, I also know that for every new trendy bar or restaurant opening, for every luxury condo that gets built, that's one more family that will be forced out of the city because they simply can't afford to live there anymore.]] Make up your mind. You seem to think there's some exact right balance where you will be happy and someone who makes less than you will be able to stick around and make the neighborhood gritty and colorful enough to assuage your guilt as you drink a four dollar cup of coffee.
How to predict gentrification? When the non-chain corner store starts stocking at least 4 different brands of balsamic vinegar.]] Balsamic vinegar is very tasty...I like a nice selection.
[[When you see non-white women pushing white children in strollers.]] So, what? Those "non-white" women would probably prefer being a nanny and wiping a baby's rear end to working in a nursing home and wiping an old man's rear end.
[[When recycling bins are placed next to trash cans.]] You're against recycling?
[[When the local bar now has 10 taps, and they're all craft beer.]] Craft beer creates jobs...you're against job creation?
[[The real kicker is when you see loft apartments advertised for rental fees that feel like a mortgage payment. I've seen it happen all too frequently here in the DC area. While I welcome the new stores and restaurants, I also know that for every new trendy bar or restaurant opening, for every luxury condo that gets built, that's one more family that will be forced out of the city because they simply can't afford to live there anymore.]] Make up your mind. You seem to think there's some exact right balance where you will be happy and someone who makes less than you will be able to stick around and make the neighborhood gritty and colorful enough to assuage your guilt as you drink a four dollar cup of coffee.
3
"How to predict gentrification" - Trash collection, cops responding, white joggers, public hearings for doggie parks, and white women walking dogs.
27
What's totally missing in this article is any mention of real estate and business development. The gentrification process, if there is such a thing, is most often driven by big business development in "cheap" locations, which in turn drives new real estate development, which in turn drives people to move into those areas. At least in Washington DC, gentrification follows the business-real estate model. The wealthier people don't arrive first -- they arrive last.
3
Here's the Bronx in 1995.
[[The pervasive feeling was that, finally, the area was coming back -- 6,000 units of housing built or rehabilitated over the last 15 years, 300 families moving into new two-family homes in the last two years, a population increase of about 13,000 from 1980 to 1990 -- but that the presence of prostitutes was sabotaging the recovery. "We're getting a critical mass of working people, of homeowners, people feel like they have a stake in the community," said Adolfo Carrion, district manager of the local community board.]] http://www.nytimes.com/1995/04/18/nyregion/prostitution-tarnishes-an-ave...
And in 2016, with a greater emphasis on race. [[Gentrification began long before a developer put up a billboard in the neighborhood calling it the "Piano District," according to a new report from NYU's Furman Center, which defines gentrification as low-income areas of the city that have seen rapid increases in rent.]] https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20160510/mott-haven/its-official-south-...
[[The pervasive feeling was that, finally, the area was coming back -- 6,000 units of housing built or rehabilitated over the last 15 years, 300 families moving into new two-family homes in the last two years, a population increase of about 13,000 from 1980 to 1990 -- but that the presence of prostitutes was sabotaging the recovery. "We're getting a critical mass of working people, of homeowners, people feel like they have a stake in the community," said Adolfo Carrion, district manager of the local community board.]] http://www.nytimes.com/1995/04/18/nyregion/prostitution-tarnishes-an-ave...
And in 2016, with a greater emphasis on race. [[Gentrification began long before a developer put up a billboard in the neighborhood calling it the "Piano District," according to a new report from NYU's Furman Center, which defines gentrification as low-income areas of the city that have seen rapid increases in rent.]] https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20160510/mott-haven/its-official-south-...
Astute observation. It is amazing how thoroughly and radically our cultural norms have shifted in the last couple of decades. Some for better. Some not.
Correlation does not equal causation
3
I had a discussion with someone about "gentrification" and crime. She felt that "gentrifiers" simply were given better protection by the police and better services like street cleaning. I said that new arrivals probably were more likely to demand better services...calling the cops on people drinking in a park or a loud party.
She had this anger at the idea of "rich" "white" people getting better treatment than lower income "black" people. I pointed out that everyone benefits if the police are more visible and if the streets are cleaner. I also pointed out that she - a black woman a white collar management job - was probably at the upper limit of the income in her community and thus she was a "gentrifier" too.
[[The possibility that these trends portend higher housing costs and more housing demand in the future in poorer, minority neighborhoods adds a cautionary note to the declining crime trend.]]
I don't know what that means...that poor "minority" people should put up with crime lest they get pushed out?
[[That may reflect the fact that lower-income families have more experience or confidence in their ability to navigate crime.]]
That's ridiculous. Poor people don't have a superpower. Their lives are circumscribed by crime and violence. Sex offenders preying on girls and women, gangsters preying on boys and men. Robbers attacking the elderly. Living under the constant threat of violence is traumatic.
She had this anger at the idea of "rich" "white" people getting better treatment than lower income "black" people. I pointed out that everyone benefits if the police are more visible and if the streets are cleaner. I also pointed out that she - a black woman a white collar management job - was probably at the upper limit of the income in her community and thus she was a "gentrifier" too.
[[The possibility that these trends portend higher housing costs and more housing demand in the future in poorer, minority neighborhoods adds a cautionary note to the declining crime trend.]]
I don't know what that means...that poor "minority" people should put up with crime lest they get pushed out?
[[That may reflect the fact that lower-income families have more experience or confidence in their ability to navigate crime.]]
That's ridiculous. Poor people don't have a superpower. Their lives are circumscribed by crime and violence. Sex offenders preying on girls and women, gangsters preying on boys and men. Robbers attacking the elderly. Living under the constant threat of violence is traumatic.
9
Majority white organized crime laden North End, Charlestown and South Boston underwent gentrification in the 90s and 2000s with ever increasing acceleration and displacement and rising rents etc - locals either moved into federal housing complexes in their neighborhoods, received rent subsidies , sold or rent their modest abode for a mint , or moved on - cities undergo constant often revolutionary changes you must adapt , or leave
6
Falling crime is a euphemism for fewer brown and black folks of any socioeconomic educational caste class.
Gentrification is another sly rhetorical evasion for white supremacy.
Sunday morning church is the segregated colored American reality.
But listen to "The Message" by Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five; "We're Fabulous" by Jaheim; " Dear Mama" by Tupac Shakur; "Coming Where I am From" by Anthony Hamilton on YouTube.org for another colored living reality.
Gentrification is another sly rhetorical evasion for white supremacy.
Sunday morning church is the segregated colored American reality.
But listen to "The Message" by Grandmaster Flash and the Furious Five; "We're Fabulous" by Jaheim; " Dear Mama" by Tupac Shakur; "Coming Where I am From" by Anthony Hamilton on YouTube.org for another colored living reality.
4
In almost exclusively white areas all over the country, it's whites who blow their neighbors' brains out. They're the dysfunctional personalities toting guns. They're the heroin addicts who rob stores and homes and prey on elderly people shuffling back from the bank.
In terms of your first paragraph, Blackmamba, I suggest that in our cities with their sizable black populations, if the shoe fits . . . .
My neighborhood is full of black people also trudging off to their jobs. They too are mighty happy that we've had a lessening of crime around here. I don't see fewer black people on my block, but I do see fewer dysfunctional young men hanging out.
In terms of your first paragraph, Blackmamba, I suggest that in our cities with their sizable black populations, if the shoe fits . . . .
My neighborhood is full of black people also trudging off to their jobs. They too are mighty happy that we've had a lessening of crime around here. I don't see fewer black people on my block, but I do see fewer dysfunctional young men hanging out.
5
"Falling crime is a euphemism for fewer brown and black folks of any socioeconomic educational caste class. "
Heh heh, thanks for un-ironically pointing out what wishful-thinkers -- like the author of this silly article -- wish weren't true.
Heh heh, thanks for un-ironically pointing out what wishful-thinkers -- like the author of this silly article -- wish weren't true.
2
I have lived in three NY boroughs, and for the last three decades, 900 feet from the City Line. I was born in NYC in 1958. I was in public HS for the fiscal crisis, was in college for "the Bronx is burning" days, saw the arson and chaos attending the 1977 blackout. I was here when murders spiked to well over 2000 in 1991. Murders for 2016 fell to 330, in a city whose population has boomed to 8.5 million after bottoming out at 7 million in the 1980 census.
Sometimes falling crime is just what it is, like Freud saying sometimes a cigar is just a smoke.
Sometimes falling crime is just what it is, like Freud saying sometimes a cigar is just a smoke.
3
"The new research looked at confidential geocoded data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, and more recent American Community Surveys, to identify the neighborhoods where more than four million households moved. Using citywide violent crime data from the F.B.I., the scholars tracked the changing probability of different demographic groups moving into central cities, as opposed to suburbs, as crime fell".
I would be very skeptical of reaching conclusion based upon the research quoted here. First of al this is 2017. We are 60% though the next census decade. The validity of the data is questionable as to being reflective of current trends. Also, the data is referred to as "confidential geocoded data". Exactly what is that data and why is it confidential? Furthermore using the "geocoded data" in a comparative analysis of "violent crime data from the FBI to track changing probability of different demographic groups" seems specious and statistically questionable. Why is there any comparative or correlative analysis when not even the cities or demographic groups are identified? Also, did crime fall in all of the cities? How much did crime fall?
Even if the data is valid why do we need or want such data to predict gentrification? The life cycles of peoples and cities should not be reduced to ten year cycle by statistical analysis based upon a decade that ended 6 years ago.
Gentrification happens. Cities, economics and populations change. Predicting social behavior is not reliable.
I would be very skeptical of reaching conclusion based upon the research quoted here. First of al this is 2017. We are 60% though the next census decade. The validity of the data is questionable as to being reflective of current trends. Also, the data is referred to as "confidential geocoded data". Exactly what is that data and why is it confidential? Furthermore using the "geocoded data" in a comparative analysis of "violent crime data from the FBI to track changing probability of different demographic groups" seems specious and statistically questionable. Why is there any comparative or correlative analysis when not even the cities or demographic groups are identified? Also, did crime fall in all of the cities? How much did crime fall?
Even if the data is valid why do we need or want such data to predict gentrification? The life cycles of peoples and cities should not be reduced to ten year cycle by statistical analysis based upon a decade that ended 6 years ago.
Gentrification happens. Cities, economics and populations change. Predicting social behavior is not reliable.
3
This might be the most myopic, egghead-liberal article I've ever read in my life – and I say that as a decades-long reader of technocratic and fluffy-center journalism.
"That may reflect the fact, Ms. Ellen suggested, that lower-income families have more experience or confidence in their ability to navigate crime. Or it may suggest that attention to violence is a luxury in housing decisions that the poor and minorities may not have."
You literally think poor people opt to stay in violent and crime-ridden areas because they've just simply learned to cope? The idea that you have to even posit a lack of money as a counterpoint – and this reads as if to suggest that Ms. Ellen didn't think to mention this, and that the Times had to add it in as a hedge – seems to indicate that dippy academics at UMass are actually just hapless baby birds who fell from the nest and somehow landed in tenured positions.
When a neighborhood becomes dangerous, people leave if they can. Bottom line. There are cultural and convenience reasons for living in a city, but ultimately the people who remain during the bad times are there because they have to be – whether because of poverty, redlining, family commitments, or other life-or-death reasons. In America, a country founded on slave labor and racial exclusion, those people are more often than not non-white. Can I have a PhD and a job for life now?
"That may reflect the fact, Ms. Ellen suggested, that lower-income families have more experience or confidence in their ability to navigate crime. Or it may suggest that attention to violence is a luxury in housing decisions that the poor and minorities may not have."
You literally think poor people opt to stay in violent and crime-ridden areas because they've just simply learned to cope? The idea that you have to even posit a lack of money as a counterpoint – and this reads as if to suggest that Ms. Ellen didn't think to mention this, and that the Times had to add it in as a hedge – seems to indicate that dippy academics at UMass are actually just hapless baby birds who fell from the nest and somehow landed in tenured positions.
When a neighborhood becomes dangerous, people leave if they can. Bottom line. There are cultural and convenience reasons for living in a city, but ultimately the people who remain during the bad times are there because they have to be – whether because of poverty, redlining, family commitments, or other life-or-death reasons. In America, a country founded on slave labor and racial exclusion, those people are more often than not non-white. Can I have a PhD and a job for life now?
19
The reason why Obama does not want to move back to South Chicago where he is from is that there is crime - increasing rates of crime and violence - and even Obama does not want to have anything to do with BOB crime after having worked in the same community as an organizer.
As the crime goes down, businesses are encouraged to move in, and then people have a reason to follow suit. Banks and pizza places do not want to be where there is a holdup every day.
As the crime goes down, businesses are encouraged to move in, and then people have a reason to follow suit. Banks and pizza places do not want to be where there is a holdup every day.
8
It's not simply lower crime rates. It's far more complex. Many areas have low crime rates but yet are areas that gays, hipsters, etc. (typical gentrifiers) would not choose to live. But all it takes is a certain number of such people to choose to live in a certain area. Then it takes on a life of its own, with others like them suddenly deciding the area is 'cool'. It also helps if the area still has a good number of empty lots, graffiti and 'people of color' so that the gentrifiers can wear the badge of honor of saying that they live in an 'edgy' neighborhood.
If it were truly simply about lower crime rates, there would have been a lot more white people living in the Northern end of Harlem back when I was there in 2001. But yet, any other white faces I saw in my part of Harlem were few and far between back then. I felt very safe in Harlem then, yet many other whites were shocked to hear I lived there, often citing 'danger'. Many whites simply need to see others like themselves in a certain area, before considering moving there and/or before believing it's 'truly safe'.
If it were truly simply about lower crime rates, there would have been a lot more white people living in the Northern end of Harlem back when I was there in 2001. But yet, any other white faces I saw in my part of Harlem were few and far between back then. I felt very safe in Harlem then, yet many other whites were shocked to hear I lived there, often citing 'danger'. Many whites simply need to see others like themselves in a certain area, before considering moving there and/or before believing it's 'truly safe'.
7
"This study also doesn’t offer evidence that existing residents were displaced by the new arrivals."
Most gentrification studies don't and those that do usually only find marginal displacement rates. Nonetheless, the largely fallacious linkage between gentrification and displacement endures (no thanks to the wackadoodles writing for the NYT editorial pages and reactionaries like Spike Lee).
Most gentrification studies don't and those that do usually only find marginal displacement rates. Nonetheless, the largely fallacious linkage between gentrification and displacement endures (no thanks to the wackadoodles writing for the NYT editorial pages and reactionaries like Spike Lee).
5
There are exceptions to this pattern. New Orleans has a quite high murder rate, 3rd highest in the nation among larger cities, and yet it is steadily gentrifying.
What about gentrification in areas, historically always low in crime, and away from the gentrifying locales like Cobble Hill, Red Hook, and Williamsburg, which are near the Gowanus toxic dump?! Areas like Sheepshead Bay, Bensonhurst, and Bay Ridge in Brooklyn?! And they are non toxic too! Will they gentrify?!!!
2
They will gentrify, eventually. Those neighborhoods are a long subway ride away from Manhattan, much further away than Gowanus and Williamsburg. Bensonhurst is at least half an hour further out on the F train than Smith-Ninth Sts.
1
You are right about the gentrification! It's already happening! But, it's happening in Russian, Catonese, Ukrainian, and Arabic! The many folks who made those areas historically safe, and iconic, have gone elsewhere, never expecting that their beloved neighborhoods would become havens for former Communists! As for the train being too far from the City, well when you have found Paradise, that distance is like a walk in the park! Das vadanya!
1
So when my parents' friends and some family members left Brooklyn, and my father nailed shut our first-floor casement windows and put bars on the basement windows, was that un-gentrification? In the late 1960s and in the 1970s, people were driven from their homes because their living conditions had deteriorated, and we stayed simply because we had to.
When for the first time I saw garbage strewn on Church Avenue, which once had boutique shops on it, was that un-gentrification?
I remember when Brooklyn was clean and quiet -- when you didn't see paper cups and candy wrappers tossed onto the sidewalks or idiot graffiti scribbled on brick walls, and when you didn't hear obscene lyrics blasted from passing cars.
I am heartily glad that Brooklyn is returning to its normal self and that whatever elements propelled its decay are ebbing.
When will we have the courage to call crime and filthy habits what they are -- aberrations from civilized behavior?
When for the first time I saw garbage strewn on Church Avenue, which once had boutique shops on it, was that un-gentrification?
I remember when Brooklyn was clean and quiet -- when you didn't see paper cups and candy wrappers tossed onto the sidewalks or idiot graffiti scribbled on brick walls, and when you didn't hear obscene lyrics blasted from passing cars.
I am heartily glad that Brooklyn is returning to its normal self and that whatever elements propelled its decay are ebbing.
When will we have the courage to call crime and filthy habits what they are -- aberrations from civilized behavior?
46
We left Brooklyn in the mid-seventies not long after the neighborhood junkies tried to break the door of our apartment down while I was there. Prior to this there was a certain level of decency that was maintained among neighbors. There was one particular young gentleman who lived on our block who might warn us "don't walk on 6th Avenue tonight. Don't ask me why..." We could park on the street with a reasonable expectation that our beat up car would be there in the morning. That changed the night I stood there yelling at the door with a crowbar in my hand, wondering if I'd have the guts to use it.
I remember my mother in Flatbush leaving a couple of hundred dollar bills prominently displayed on the dining room when she was going to be away overnight because she'd heard that if you left enough money out that thugs would just take the cash, leave quickly, and not trash your house. If you made their work easier they showed respect. True story.
She never left and died in the house she and I grew up in. But the neighborhood changed around her. Now that it's changed back the humble abode of my childhood is probably worth an arm and a leg.
Yes. We left. It had nothing to do with race.
I remember my mother in Flatbush leaving a couple of hundred dollar bills prominently displayed on the dining room when she was going to be away overnight because she'd heard that if you left enough money out that thugs would just take the cash, leave quickly, and not trash your house. If you made their work easier they showed respect. True story.
She never left and died in the house she and I grew up in. But the neighborhood changed around her. Now that it's changed back the humble abode of my childhood is probably worth an arm and a leg.
Yes. We left. It had nothing to do with race.
6
Recently, the NYTimes had an article about the persistent crime in the 40th precinct (south bronx - Mott Haven) and the inability -- or unwillingness -- of the NYPD to do anything about it.
I just found this on streeteasy.com:
"Luxury Living in the South Bronx... It's About time!" for a 2BR 1BA apartment renting for $3200/month on Alexander Avenue off Mott Haven Blvd.
The chicken or the egg?
I just found this on streeteasy.com:
"Luxury Living in the South Bronx... It's About time!" for a 2BR 1BA apartment renting for $3200/month on Alexander Avenue off Mott Haven Blvd.
The chicken or the egg?
1
My issue with "Murder in the Four Oh" was its alarmist tone belied by actual crime statistics.
The article noted that that precinct had 91 murders a few years ago, now dwindled down to 14. Shootings citywide are at a record low, and murders are at 330 for a year in a city of 8.5 million. In perspective, Chicago had more than twice the number of murders as NYC, with one third the population.
The "Murder in the Four Oh" piece made note that crime only dropped 0.1%, far less than citywide totals, but that looks at total felony crimes. It was almost entirely made up of an astonishing spike in Grand Larceny, and an increase in Felony Assault. But murder was down 66%, rape by 19.6%, and every other individual crime broken out by category dropped other than the two noted. That is a rather simplistic, opportunistic reading of the statistics to fit the article's narrative.
Here are the CompStat figures from NYPD for the 40th Precinct.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-040...
My daughter taught in the South Bronx for two years, from 2013-2015, the second year right near the park in that article. I don't think she ever felt endangered. But I saw plenty of signs of gentrification, including new construction and renovation, in both Mott Haven and Hunt's Point.
The article noted that that precinct had 91 murders a few years ago, now dwindled down to 14. Shootings citywide are at a record low, and murders are at 330 for a year in a city of 8.5 million. In perspective, Chicago had more than twice the number of murders as NYC, with one third the population.
The "Murder in the Four Oh" piece made note that crime only dropped 0.1%, far less than citywide totals, but that looks at total felony crimes. It was almost entirely made up of an astonishing spike in Grand Larceny, and an increase in Felony Assault. But murder was down 66%, rape by 19.6%, and every other individual crime broken out by category dropped other than the two noted. That is a rather simplistic, opportunistic reading of the statistics to fit the article's narrative.
Here are the CompStat figures from NYPD for the 40th Precinct.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-040...
My daughter taught in the South Bronx for two years, from 2013-2015, the second year right near the park in that article. I don't think she ever felt endangered. But I saw plenty of signs of gentrification, including new construction and renovation, in both Mott Haven and Hunt's Point.
1
I believe it is Dr. Ellen, not Ms. Ellen.
2
The NYT generally calls people Dr. if they are a medical doctor, a psychologist or a dentist in the context of their health care practice. Otherwise, Mr/Ms.
How to Predict Gentrification: Look for Falling Crime. Really? You mean, follow the artists!
8
The article does not look at whether falling crime precedes gentrification or gentrification precedes falling crime. The article assumes the former but I would argue for the later. My theory goes like this. There is an influx of foreign real estate buyers in major cities which has inflated a condo bubble. These foreign buyers primarily buy in new gated high rise condos and are content to leave them empty as stores of value. This has driven up values and rents for all urban real estate pushing out low income former residents, single mothers etc. out of city cores. Select professionals and a tiny yuppie class are able to borrow at low interest rates and compete with this influx of foreign money. Crime has gone out of cities with the former poor residents being pushed out. This gentrification is all based on unsustainable trends that will eventually backfire and reverse. Foreign money is not unlimited. Supply of condos is growing exponentially with residential skyscrapers going up. Interest rates are rising rapidly. The Yuppies are eventually going to have children and want to move to the suburbs. Most city residents do online work, you don't have to live in or commute to the city if your work is mainly online. This is Housing Bubble 2.0 and like Housing Bubble 1.0, end in tears.
3
From the article: "It’s entirely likely that the arrival of more affluent residents affected crime, too — either by increasing opportunities for property crime in the short term, or by adding eyes on the street and pressure on the police in the long run. Because this research looked at moves that occurred after crime was already falling, the authors believe the movers were reacting to changes in crime and not simply causing it themselves."
2
There is an interesting example of this melange of communities taking place now in Toronto's Regent Park, Canada's largest social housing project. A dynamic group called Artscape is inserting condo buildings into underused parts of this neighbourhood. Along with the new towers come recreational and arts facilities to be shared by the entire community. Other arts orgs are also moving into the surrounding blocks. Crime was never really a serious issue, nor was Regent Park ever seen as a no-go zone, but this is a successful public/private partnership meant to upgrade and enrich the neighbourhood for all.
1
So, basically, you like the idea even though the core issue is completely different?
At the same time, how would it hurt for us to try something new and different? We keepy doing basically the same things over and over again. And over and over again, we keep failing to achieve our stated goals.
At the same time, how would it hurt for us to try something new and different? We keepy doing basically the same things over and over again. And over and over again, we keep failing to achieve our stated goals.
Correction - how to predict falling crime, look for the seeds of gentrification. Gentrification just accelerates as the crime falls, but the initial kickstart is artistic whites (oh, no, racist! but true) starting to move back into neighborhoods after they've been priced out of other areas.
9
High crime makes you move out--low crime let's you move back--wow ! I never would have figured that out
12
I see what the narrative is here: black and brown minorities do their best to reduce the crime in "their" areas. But when these oppressed minorities succeed in eliminating the violent crime though, the greedy whites (and other privileged groups) smell out the opportunity of living in affordable areas, now free of violent crime and colonize them, pushing the original can-do-no-wrong minorities out. The evil greedy colonizers then start collaborating with the fascist police to expedite the process of deporting the original minorities out.
20
This is a very interesting theory worthy of more investigation, but how valid is this one study? Not that I disagree with it, but there is a big unanswered question "what cities did the study choose to look at?"
Ms Badger did not report what type of cities were studied, so I read the research. It considered the 100 largest incorporated cities, but presumably disregarded unincorporated cities, even the very large ones.
In many sprawling areas, smaller incorporated cities are clustered together and surrounded by huge unincorporated populations. These are the sorts of cities that gentrification may affect most (or least?), but we don't know because this study didn't consider them.
This is an important theory. Broader, more detailed research is called for.
Ms Badger did not report what type of cities were studied, so I read the research. It considered the 100 largest incorporated cities, but presumably disregarded unincorporated cities, even the very large ones.
In many sprawling areas, smaller incorporated cities are clustered together and surrounded by huge unincorporated populations. These are the sorts of cities that gentrification may affect most (or least?), but we don't know because this study didn't consider them.
This is an important theory. Broader, more detailed research is called for.
1
I am not a known scholar, I am just a person who has lived all my life in minority neighborhoods. I lived through the transitions from white-flight to white-inflight. What I've discussed with family and friends based on my observations is minorities have weathered crimes and punishments, yet the vast majority remained in their neighborhoods, most couldn't afford to move, others lived in hope and their faith in God - hoping and praying that times will change, and it did.
1
As a trend-bucking transplant who just relocated from downtown to Suburbia, I wonder whether anyone's looked at the converse: has suburban crime increased at all as the urban crime rate has fallen? Or is the shift in demographics more like a spreading of values that's improving safety in all community settings, urban, suburban, and rural alike?
10
Crime is increasing in many rural areas due to a combination of economic dislocation and drug addiction. Oregon's small, rural towns offer many examples of this. Car prowls, break-ins, burglaries, and arson represent most of the increase.
4
William Helmreich's "The New York Nobody Knows," researched after the great crime reduction (1992 to 2003) offers several nuanced observations about gentrification. The poor are seldom "forced out"--they leave voluntarily, usually for better places. Those that stay usually mix well with the newcomers. Helmreich (whom I do not know) is not a Pollyanna about urban change, but he offers a common-sense sociology (not here an oxymoron) to explain why neighborhood conflict is the exception rather than the norm.
6
Is it possible to consider development approaches that are principle-driven rather than profit-driven. If so, perhaps an example of a principle-driven approach might be: Will the proposed gentrification plan reduce income disparity or contribute to it? Also, can these approaches thoughtfully consider systemic consequences in their approaches such as: Who will be squeezed out by this initiative? Or: In what ways will the proposed development truly raise ALL "boats"?
Who justly profits from public investments that lower crime? The land owner? Why not the community that has suffered so long with high crime? I have more respect for the hoodlum who works hard for his thievery.
2
So, you're pro-market until it gives you an outcome that you don't like and then you demand "justice"? Remind me to try that the next time I go to a casino.
2
Giant question. Why is "geocoded data" confidential? Rhetorical question, we all know why.
likely because the businesses that collected and geocoded this data charge money to see it.
Very sloppy journalism. The paper on which this article is based is titled "Has Falling Crime Invited Gentrification?" and makes it clear that the statistical analysis involved does not indicate causal direction - that is, which came first, falling crime rate or wealthier people moving in? We can't be sure, and we shouldn't publish articles that say we are.
7
Perhaps now we can stop using the racist phrase "white flight" to indicate whites leaving cities because blacks moved in. As has always been true, they left because crime rates rose and threatened their families and real estate values. When crime drops they move back. We don't say the resulting exodus as rents rise and minorities choose to move to neighborhoods where their relatives are closer "black flight".
16
On December 14th at 6:45 pm in Harlem on Lenox Ave b/t 127th and 128th a man was shot and killed on the street, in front of a new hip sushi restaurant. It seemed gang related, and the man who was killed had a record of drug and sex crimes. However, In the past 5 years there have been a number of shootings like this on Lenox Avenue. It seems surreal that this goes on in the midst of gentrification, barely after it's getting dark out, during "rush hour," amidst all the new wealth and yupsters moving in with their golden haired children, or the wealthy tourists who come from Italy and Spain to hear gospel shows https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20161228/central-harlem/harlem-shooting...
1
Nothing wrong with golden-haired children, or with black-haired children. All children should be born to people who wait and plan before they have babies, dream dreams for them, and work to ensure their futures.
Just because a neighborhood feels safe doesn't mean that people -- usually young men -- usually young men whose progenitors should not have been procreating -- won't engaged in aberrant, even murderous, behavior.
Just because a neighborhood feels safe doesn't mean that people -- usually young men -- usually young men whose progenitors should not have been procreating -- won't engaged in aberrant, even murderous, behavior.
5
"When violent crime falls sharply, wealthier and educated people are more likely to move into lower-income and predominantly minority urban neighborhoods."
In other news, earth revolves around sun, pope Catholic, etc.
In other news, earth revolves around sun, pope Catholic, etc.
8
Actually the best way to spot a neighborhood about to be gentrified is to watch for the increased inflow of the Gay community. Works everytime
12
How to predict gentrification ?
When people start to not talk to one another and are busily looking into their phones while scurrying down the street,
Oh and the $47 lattes are generally a tip off.
When people start to not talk to one another and are busily looking into their phones while scurrying down the street,
Oh and the $47 lattes are generally a tip off.
7
People with money want to live in safe areas...it's that simple. It's not based on race, religion or ethnicity. It's about safety. People with money are able to make more and better choices. It's a concept that isn't confined to real estate. Money flows in much the same way. When there is instability in Europe for example, the world's money goes through a "flight to safety" by investing in the dollar, the Swiss Franc or gold bars. People, naturally, don't like chaos - socially or economically.
13
Yes and we have landlords pushing the rents sky high to pay the taxes in places like this while affordable housing is barely being built and not for anyone making over a very paltry sum of money. All this means is that the middle and working classes are being pushed out of areas they've long inhabited to the margins and those at the margins are losing. I think the end result is a housing bust where the rich get saved and the rest of us get to rot.
The stock answers politicians and others give us, to move where housing is cheaper or to stop wanting luxuries we haven't earned (like wanting decent housing is a luxury!) don't address the problems faced by many people with or without children. We all want to live where it's safe, clean, and well cared for. Yet just those things seem to be turning into luxuries. In Westchester County, as in many metro areas, even poor quality housing is more than anyone making less than 6 figures can manage. Telling people to move elsewhere without job offers in hand, no connections, and other familial obligations solves nothing.
These issues can be ignored for awhile but they will eat at the serenity and security of city neighborhoods and the suburbs until there is an outbreak of anger at the people who refuse to allow affordable housing to be built, at the very low income eligibility cut offs, and the fact that salaries haven't kept pace with the actual costs of living.
The stock answers politicians and others give us, to move where housing is cheaper or to stop wanting luxuries we haven't earned (like wanting decent housing is a luxury!) don't address the problems faced by many people with or without children. We all want to live where it's safe, clean, and well cared for. Yet just those things seem to be turning into luxuries. In Westchester County, as in many metro areas, even poor quality housing is more than anyone making less than 6 figures can manage. Telling people to move elsewhere without job offers in hand, no connections, and other familial obligations solves nothing.
These issues can be ignored for awhile but they will eat at the serenity and security of city neighborhoods and the suburbs until there is an outbreak of anger at the people who refuse to allow affordable housing to be built, at the very low income eligibility cut offs, and the fact that salaries haven't kept pace with the actual costs of living.
8
So, you want all the benefits of rich people being around you, but you want it at a cut rate price? Why do you deserve a special deal for yourself? Why do you deserve to profit from their investment?
Just move. In my own life, I've moved all over for jobs. It's not a difficult thing to do.
Just move. In my own life, I've moved all over for jobs. It's not a difficult thing to do.
3
This is why I am a big fan of adding affordable housing to luxury developments. Gentrification without affordable housing added to the building or development pushes the poor out, and a lack of gentrification leaves the poor vulnerable to criminals who also are usually poor and live alongside them. When you add low rent units to luxury developments and mix the law abiding poor in, you are basically using the wealthy to shield the poor and vulnerable who live there from crime, as the police will pay more attention to complaints in a gentrified neighborhood. It's terrible that the police work that way, but lets be honest, they won't tolerate crime in wealthy areas and basically let it slide in poor areas.
18
but rich people don't want to live around poor people. That's not why the 1% are flocking to NYC. It's not for the local color. It's to be within walking distance of a Hermes or Moncler store and a steakhouse with great 50 dollar strip steak.
3
They used to just call these units the servant's quarters. Seems so much more straightforward.
3
If you are a big fan of adding "affordable housing" units to "luxury" developments, be our guest. You concede that criminals are poor and live alongside the noncriminal poor. Who gets the affordable units?
3
What's missing is that the phenomenon that the authors describe is almost entirely a coastal one. The NY Times editors and writers live in their Manhattan bubble, see the surge in opulence in their city and assume it's happening everywhere. It is not. Chicago had 762 murders this year. Crime is resurgent here as it is in St. Louis, Milwaukee, Detroit, all the middle-American cities with which Trump's voters are more familiar. Gentrification in Chicago is limited to a few trendy neighborhoods. Much of the rest of the city struggles to keep storefronts filled and the city continues to shed population.
18
27 murders in my city Rockford, this year, and less than 10 arrests. Highest murder rate in 20 years. Countless shots fired, and drive by shootings happen daily here. And this is happening in areas that were considered good.
5
Missing. Yes.
1. The New York Times is a New York paper.
2. "While homicides have increased recently in some cities, rates remain far below what they were 25 years ago, including in Chicago."
1. The New York Times is a New York paper.
2. "While homicides have increased recently in some cities, rates remain far below what they were 25 years ago, including in Chicago."
3
Please stop telling coastal people that they live in a bubble. It is inaccurate, irritating and used predominantly by overly defensive midwesterners.
Chicago and St. Louis are suffering from an unfortunate deluge of guns. Chicago is in a tough spot, as the guns there come from Indiana. St. Louis is in, well, Missouri. Nothing can be done about that.
In almost every other city around the nation, violent crime is at historic lows.
Chicago and St. Louis are suffering from an unfortunate deluge of guns. Chicago is in a tough spot, as the guns there come from Indiana. St. Louis is in, well, Missouri. Nothing can be done about that.
In almost every other city around the nation, violent crime is at historic lows.
4
Follow the artists/creative types. They're ALWAYS ahead of the curve.
In general, they're the ones who first move into blighted areas, make them nicer, cool, funky, whatever. Then the young, urban professionals follow and then the rents rise, then the artists have to leave and try again somewhere else.
Rinse and repeat.
In general, they're the ones who first move into blighted areas, make them nicer, cool, funky, whatever. Then the young, urban professionals follow and then the rents rise, then the artists have to leave and try again somewhere else.
Rinse and repeat.
27
It's called the Ghostship and it's in Oakland.
2
Is anyone else sick of the snarky term "gentrification"? For a good half century it's been used to demonize anyone who moves into a rundown neighborhood and attempts to improve things. If there is indeed a public policy solution to the self-destructive behaviors that accompany poverty, it sure doesn't include freezing slums in place.
147
This is very true. Low income housing solutions can be mixed in with new development to keep the law abiding poor in the neighborhood, and the criminal element belongs in jail anyway. The poor should not be forced to live with criminals and in run down neighborhoods, that helps no one.
4
Absolutely sick of the term. It's as if the renovation or replacement of decrepit properties is a new social problem rather the ordinary course of property everywhere, but most certainly in large cities, where space is at a premium. My grandchildren live in a "gentrified" neighborhood from which my grandparents moved when it began its downward spiral. It's the circle of building and neighborhood life. No one has a claim to live in any particular neighborhood for any particular time, unless, of course, you can but the property you wish to occupy, pay taxes on it, and maintain it.
6
Not everyone who lives in "poverty" is poor other than in pretension, some just like the neighborhood because it's home and it's familiar and that makes them comfortable. Humbleness should not be a crime.
2
I've also thought that gentrification and crime reduction are more circular than sequential. In other words, it's not just wealthier people moving in as crime drops. It's also wealthier people moving in that helps to cause crime to drop, as the criminals get pushed out.
48
I had similar thoughts while reading the article.
3
So now the neighborhood is safe for white collar criminals, who are never held to account.
2
Really? so bank redlining, lack of services, and local government neglect have nothing to do with this?????
13
Bank redlining? Who is looking to buy in these neighborhoods and being denied a mortgage? A bona fide mortgage, not the worthless paper banks wrote before the recession? The only people who have the wherewithal to buy a building a renovate it are considered "gentrifiers." The existing residents are renters, who have no right to live in any particular neighborhood, just as generations before us never had such a right. My grandparents were driven out of the neighborhoods they lived in by crime. My grandkids are living there, fixing up their homes.
5
You mean banks should be forced to lend in neighborhoods where the likelihood of being repaid is minimal?
Banks redline for a reason. And the reason is that a loan is an asset for a bank. Deposits are liabilities. Banks aren't 501-c-3 entities. They are for profit. And as for profit entities they would prefer that the loans they make get repaid.
Banks redline for a reason. And the reason is that a loan is an asset for a bank. Deposits are liabilities. Banks aren't 501-c-3 entities. They are for profit. And as for profit entities they would prefer that the loans they make get repaid.
10
There will be no way to stop violent crime in Chicago unless somebody, Federal Government, State or City of Chicago help the poor people to have access to better education for their children and their youth. It is that simple. Just Christian compassion, nothing else.
4
I teach in an urban school.
We're all college graduates and we all passed a licensing exam. Not everyone passes the exam; those people must find a different career.
The education on offer might be basic and underfunded in corrupt districts, but it is decent. Every year, students from these so-called "terrible" schools manage to get full scholarships to Ivy League colleges.
I tell my students that I have set the table and prepared the feast; they must pick up their own forks, however, and participate. Every year, my students outperform almost all other students in the same grade/course across my district. I believe they do well because I make them aware that their future is up to them. (Despite my students' success, I have not been granted a raise in 5 years, but I still show up and do my job).
It's not the education system.
We're all college graduates and we all passed a licensing exam. Not everyone passes the exam; those people must find a different career.
The education on offer might be basic and underfunded in corrupt districts, but it is decent. Every year, students from these so-called "terrible" schools manage to get full scholarships to Ivy League colleges.
I tell my students that I have set the table and prepared the feast; they must pick up their own forks, however, and participate. Every year, my students outperform almost all other students in the same grade/course across my district. I believe they do well because I make them aware that their future is up to them. (Despite my students' success, I have not been granted a raise in 5 years, but I still show up and do my job).
It's not the education system.
9
Or, perhaps, blacks could stop killing each other, for a start. Do you really think that these criminals and gang members (many of them illegal aliens) who kill without thought are going to buckle down and study in fancy new schools (which will soon be obliterated by said "students.)"
5
As James Baldwin famously said, "Urban renewal means Negro removal."
9
and, sad to say, 'negro removal' means less crime - it would be interesting to see the correlation between a declining black population and decreasing crime in NYC.
8
This makes sense. Rich people want two things: 1) to conserve what they already have and 2) have the means (including life-time) to freely use what they already have.
Since the only thing stopping them from those two things is the use of force (either by murder, or by thieving) by random/exporadic dispossessed people (the other thing is incurable and crippling disease, but this factor is out of their control - yet), falling crime rates is, presumably, a good indicator of impending or future gentrification.
Since the only thing stopping them from those two things is the use of force (either by murder, or by thieving) by random/exporadic dispossessed people (the other thing is incurable and crippling disease, but this factor is out of their control - yet), falling crime rates is, presumably, a good indicator of impending or future gentrification.
Or, you know, like most people they'd rather live where you don't get robbed. They just have the means to avoid undesirable areas
26
Ridiculous ideological argument. It's young folks who want to live near the action not rich folks.
3
I think we all can agree that falling crime rates are generally a net positive.
But, perhaps as a society we simply give up too easily on our not-yet-gentrified neighborhoods. Our police and social services are not provided the resources, incentives, or motivation to address root causes of crime and make neighborhoods safer. (Sure, we've had stop-and-frisk and profile-based policing, but constitutional concerns aside, these tactics have been proven largely ineffective and counterproductive.)
In contrast, suddenly a whole bunch of well-off (largely) white folks move in, and it is like someone flips the "on" switch for effective policing and social services.
One commenter mentioned that gentrification is good because billions of dollars flow into "once blighted communities." Would it be such a bad thing as a society to invest some of those funds in communities even BEFORE they become white and wealthy?
But, perhaps as a society we simply give up too easily on our not-yet-gentrified neighborhoods. Our police and social services are not provided the resources, incentives, or motivation to address root causes of crime and make neighborhoods safer. (Sure, we've had stop-and-frisk and profile-based policing, but constitutional concerns aside, these tactics have been proven largely ineffective and counterproductive.)
In contrast, suddenly a whole bunch of well-off (largely) white folks move in, and it is like someone flips the "on" switch for effective policing and social services.
One commenter mentioned that gentrification is good because billions of dollars flow into "once blighted communities." Would it be such a bad thing as a society to invest some of those funds in communities even BEFORE they become white and wealthy?
21
Ineffective? In Chicago stops dropped 82 percent and the murder total nearly doubled.
2
Nonsense. You see no effect of the replacement of potential criminals by people with jobs and income sufficient to purchase property? If the urban gang member shave to move, the gangs are broken up and peace breaks out.
2
How much has been spent over the past 50 years on the War on Poverty? How has it worked out?
Throwing money at a problem isn't always the answer.
Throwing money at a problem isn't always the answer.
4
Sociology surely has not changed since I was an undergraduate 50 years ago: it's still churning out useless, prolix, clearly obvious, and sophistic junk.
What a waste of time.
What a waste of time.
19
could the causation be reversed - gentrification has been the cause of less crime? After all, the "gentrified" tend to commit less violent street crime than "inner city" residents.
19
No doubt about it- a safer city is much more appealing to anyone. And cities have a lot of varied interesting things going on at all hours. This Seattle-born residential architect married to a Brooklyn-born lady for many years has seen this at first hand.
4
Gentrification is violent crime. What else do you call the forced displacement of the poor by the rich? The rich just see their own violence as justified, because their triggermen wear special badges.
5
No, gentrification--a neologism created to support the notion that this centuries-old property cycle is a new and "social" problem--is the purchase of degraded properties and their improvement or replacement.
This occurred in Athens, in Rome, in Philadelphia--it is what happens because property deteriorates and needs to be repaired or replaced and that requires capital. That requires people who can and will commit to buy property and maintain it. Renters sign leases that expire and with them, the right to live in a particular space.
This occurred in Athens, in Rome, in Philadelphia--it is what happens because property deteriorates and needs to be repaired or replaced and that requires capital. That requires people who can and will commit to buy property and maintain it. Renters sign leases that expire and with them, the right to live in a particular space.
6
I call it 70 years of disastrous housing policy which has given us a housing situation that has more in common with a Soviet Russia bread line then a functional economic market.
1
This theory does not comport with my direct experience. I wascin the front wave of leaving the suburbs in the early eighties. By 1984 gentrification was well underway in Washington Heights and Park Slope. Crime was terrible, but we took our chances anyway for cheap rent. The vast improvement of the subway and other city amenities like the parks should be given much greater credit. Gentrification started well before the drop in crime rate.
16
Agreed. Same thing in DC. We fought the battle, swept up the crack vials and heroin syringes and now enjoy the appreciation and equity growth in our property.
But the motivation isn't purely economic; for the last thirty years at least, the media has presented images of urban life as hip and cool. Kids who grew up watching "Seinfeld", "Friends", "Full House", "Sex and the City" and countless music videos with urban settings, dreamed of escaping boring suburban life and moving to a city. When they got to the city, they had to get their foot in the door in the cheaper, edgier 'hoods. The drop in crime is an after-effect
But the motivation isn't purely economic; for the last thirty years at least, the media has presented images of urban life as hip and cool. Kids who grew up watching "Seinfeld", "Friends", "Full House", "Sex and the City" and countless music videos with urban settings, dreamed of escaping boring suburban life and moving to a city. When they got to the city, they had to get their foot in the door in the cheaper, edgier 'hoods. The drop in crime is an after-effect
24
Donald Trump is correct. Urban violence is soaring. It is in Chicago. It is in New Orleans. The NYT just reported that murders have markedly increased in many American cities this past year.
16
He is not correct. His claim is factually inaccurate. And "factually inaccuate" is synonymous with "conservative" so many people get confused.
4
A gay friend of mine bought a home in downtown Atlanta many years ago. There was a lot of crime until police shot and killed four drug dealers in a running gun battle. The nearby projects were torn down and the neighborhood prospered after that. Isn't that the point of life? A better quality of life?
47
"Only in New York" do people wring their hands and moan about falling crime statistics, billions of dollars flowing into once blighted communities, economic revitalization, entrepreneurial and community involvement, home ownership, development, exponential tax revenue growth, etc...
73
I've yet to be convinced that gentrification of blighted areas is bad. Of course it would be better if the blighted areas had not become blighted in the first place. How did that happen?
46
Lack of investment and resources from all sectors - public and private.
No, Xtophers, neighborhoods like Fort Greene and Flatbush in Brooklyn did not experience urban blight because of "lack of investment and resources" but because solidly middle-class and working-class families moved out when dysfunctional families, usually subsidized, were moved in. They moved out because their apartment buildings stank from men urinating in the halls, because lightbulbs in incinerator rooms didn't last a week, and because the nights were made hellish with loud music and shouting.
Some experienced burglaries and car break-ins. Others had family members murdered during robberies. Both blacks and whites left their old neighborhoods. You'd move out too.
Inconsiderate and criminal behavior isn't caused by landlords -- no matter how some people like that sort of narrative. Much easier to blame society than individuals who have no sense of decorum or responsibility or respect for others' lives.
Some experienced burglaries and car break-ins. Others had family members murdered during robberies. Both blacks and whites left their old neighborhoods. You'd move out too.
Inconsiderate and criminal behavior isn't caused by landlords -- no matter how some people like that sort of narrative. Much easier to blame society than individuals who have no sense of decorum or responsibility or respect for others' lives.
12
So basically, after white flight started in the 70s and 80s, property values plunged in the inner city. Then, after a little bi-partisan law and order policing, former inner city residents were happily absent, freeing up some attractive real estate in the coastal cities for children of the white flight generation to return to the city. I wonder what an average Brooklynite would do if the former denizens of that zip code were suddenly all released from prison and wanted to return home?
7
if that were to happen they would support "tough" law enforcement with the implications. Only when it is neighborhoods they are not in do these hypocrites oppose it.
6
Shallow analysis with predictable conclusions, though.
The study really confirms how perceptions of crime and criminality promotes segregation and inequality. Inner cities neighborhoods are "bad" until some "pioneer" ventures in and discovers solid housing stock, below-market prices and excellent access to transportation. The narrative changes after that: In New York City, Harlem and Bedford-Stuyvesant were considered "bad" neighborhoods rather than being consistently underserved by public institutions. Crime does exist in these communities, but there also is a discernable pattern of first vilifying these communities then "cleaning' them up to benefit "good" gentrifiers.
The study really confirms how perceptions of crime and criminality promotes segregation and inequality. Inner cities neighborhoods are "bad" until some "pioneer" ventures in and discovers solid housing stock, below-market prices and excellent access to transportation. The narrative changes after that: In New York City, Harlem and Bedford-Stuyvesant were considered "bad" neighborhoods rather than being consistently underserved by public institutions. Crime does exist in these communities, but there also is a discernable pattern of first vilifying these communities then "cleaning' them up to benefit "good" gentrifiers.
17
So in short: if inner city dwellers do not want their neighborhoods to re-gentrify, they should keep their levels of victimization by crime high. This will most assuredly keep out those who would make the neighborhood a better, safer place.
52
They are already well aware of that.
4
That was my thought too, on reading this article.
1
You have too high of a regard for gentrifiers. Money is not synonymous with morality, you know. These days it's just the opposite.
2
"Their working paper suggests that just as rising crime can drive people out of cities, falling crime has a comparable effect, spurring gentrification."
Geez, really? Falling crime, THEN gentrification? I don't think so. In fact, it's more like the other way around. When a neighborhood gentrifies, crimes fall as drug pushers and petty crimes move on to other derelict neighborhoods.
And what does this have to do with Donald Trump, I have to ask? For this NYT writer to inject Trump into the reporting, it's totally nonsensical, with nothing to do with the underlying subject except to bait for clicks. If the writer really is interested in the pattern of falling crime, she should have checked the study from Freakonomics on the correlation between crimes and abortion.
Geez, really? Falling crime, THEN gentrification? I don't think so. In fact, it's more like the other way around. When a neighborhood gentrifies, crimes fall as drug pushers and petty crimes move on to other derelict neighborhoods.
And what does this have to do with Donald Trump, I have to ask? For this NYT writer to inject Trump into the reporting, it's totally nonsensical, with nothing to do with the underlying subject except to bait for clicks. If the writer really is interested in the pattern of falling crime, she should have checked the study from Freakonomics on the correlation between crimes and abortion.
77
You are exactly correct, but this paper has a history of not being able to relate crime to punishment and other issues.
13
I had not read your comment when I wrote a comment about the petty, constant attempts to smear Trump regardless of the topic being discussed.
It's so off-putting and likely why the names of familiar commenters have disappeared from the comments section.
It's also why people are turning from traditional media sources to social media.
It's so off-putting and likely why the names of familiar commenters have disappeared from the comments section.
It's also why people are turning from traditional media sources to social media.
5
Oops, Ryan- your bias is showing. The NYTimes has reported many times on the relationship between crime and punishment. That relationship is complicated and cannot be reduced to a simple aphorism so, naturally, it is difficult for conservatives to digest.
The article could also be titled "How to Predict Falling Crime: Look for Gentrification". And gentrification is closely related to the desegregation of traditionally segregated and marginalized communities.
4
and the reduction in the criminal elelment stemming from the decrease in that demographic.
4
It is hilarious that contemporary morality suggests that crime is good, because crime promotes diversity and poverty. Poverty is something actively held up and celebrated by our culture. And by the government.
One thing to remember is that poverty didn't build the city. Prosperity did. Poverty blighted an originally prosperous area. But certain people and government bureaus associated with the poverty will defend it.
One thing to remember is that poverty didn't build the city. Prosperity did. Poverty blighted an originally prosperous area. But certain people and government bureaus associated with the poverty will defend it.
44
"Crime promotes diversity" what a grear line!
The research looked at moves that occurred after crime was already falling, the period between 1990 and 2000. But during that decade, cities like New York had already seen a huge influx of young, college educated people from GenX who did not want to return to the suburbs from which they came. These people moved to the fringe of more desirable neighborhoods, if not into undesirable neighborhoods. The presence of more young professionals into a these parts of New York did change these area, and it may have allowed city to focus its limited resources in smaller areas, further reducing crime. No doubt that there may have been a tipping point when the general level of safety encouraged more people to move to New York and expand where people were moving. But there seem little support for "the authors [to] believe the movers were reacting to changes in crime and not simply causing it themselves."
10
I've been watching nabe improvement in Manhattan since 1976
What i found, was street resurfacing, which was followed by gentrification
I also counted dumpsters in front of renovation-projects
A more data savvy person, would be able to access and understand NYC Dept of buildings permits, which come in various types and subtypes etc
there ARE open data sources, but interpretation is central
and, I expect, that there are big bucks for those can trend the future, so this is all likely done, commercially and proprietorially
What i found, was street resurfacing, which was followed by gentrification
I also counted dumpsters in front of renovation-projects
A more data savvy person, would be able to access and understand NYC Dept of buildings permits, which come in various types and subtypes etc
there ARE open data sources, but interpretation is central
and, I expect, that there are big bucks for those can trend the future, so this is all likely done, commercially and proprietorially
1
I was born in the Bronx in 1947 and lived at 353 Cypress Ave and then moving up to 175th St. and Mount Eden near the Grand Concourse. Different world. I witnessed many changes over the years to these neighborhoods and others in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn. I'm not certain that I could put a singular reason as to why neighborhoods are created, decay and are reborn. Certainly crime, industry, schools, jobs, services, retail stores and transportation all play a significant role. But none can stand alone. I also witnessed change in other cities that I lived in and in those particular instances the most important catalysts to change were loss of jobs, industry and a rise in crime. Creation of projects that crowded less educated, more unequal wage earners and a preponderance of minorities into ghetto like conditions also played a role. A dearth of funding from state governments also had negative impacts on communities. Certainly changes in standards of living, cultural change, and technology also have ongoing impact. A common element is the rise of crime as poverty and deprivation increases. As crime increases more residents, who are able, flee communities. The most vulnerable are left behind and the situation deteriorates until a plateau is reached. When the crime diminishes people return and business and infrastructure rebuilding begin.
Viewing gentrification as a problem is part of the problem. We've created a view that gentrification solves a problem to create another.
Viewing gentrification as a problem is part of the problem. We've created a view that gentrification solves a problem to create another.
9
Hmmmm, this reads like a BerlinRosen Public Affairs piece and all we need now is whatshisname to regurgitate a tale of two cities lip propaganda.
Comments below indicate, truthfully, that artists spur urban renewal and transformation as has happened in the East Village, Lower East Side, Washington Heights and Inwood, Chelsea, Fort Greene, Clinton Hill, Williamsburg, Bushwick, Ridgewood, Kingsbridge, Marble Hill and South Bronx.
Picking and choosing a timeline starting in the early 90's is not the correct method to study the effect that is the central argument of the analysis, unless one wants to cherry pick, or worse, use disparate data to prove a point that suggests a phenomena that is not earth shattering news.
Start in the 70's and you will see the big picture in these neighborhoods.
Additionally, in accounting for changes in demographics one would have to include how many people left the area by dying, moving to a different area because of age or disability, etc.
Comments below indicate, truthfully, that artists spur urban renewal and transformation as has happened in the East Village, Lower East Side, Washington Heights and Inwood, Chelsea, Fort Greene, Clinton Hill, Williamsburg, Bushwick, Ridgewood, Kingsbridge, Marble Hill and South Bronx.
Picking and choosing a timeline starting in the early 90's is not the correct method to study the effect that is the central argument of the analysis, unless one wants to cherry pick, or worse, use disparate data to prove a point that suggests a phenomena that is not earth shattering news.
Start in the 70's and you will see the big picture in these neighborhoods.
Additionally, in accounting for changes in demographics one would have to include how many people left the area by dying, moving to a different area because of age or disability, etc.
4
"(Another end-of-year fact-check, while we’re at it: Mr. Trump claimed during the campaign that the homicide rate in his new home in Washington rose by 50 percent. In fact, it fell by 17 percent in 2016.)"
Time to fact check the biased New York Times fact checkers. Trump was referring to the 54% increase between 2014 and 2015. So he actually understated the increase.
Time to fact check the biased New York Times fact checkers. Trump was referring to the 54% increase between 2014 and 2015. So he actually understated the increase.
18
Not a single graph or figure and the working article linked doesn't add much of anything. Disappointing for an Upshot article. Show me the data!
2
Crime hits a record low in NYC in 2016:
http://gothamist.com/2017/01/04/new_york_citys_crime_rate.php
Maybe DeBlasio's crime-fighting initiatives aren't as important as the fact that more rich people are moving to the city?
http://gothamist.com/2017/01/04/new_york_citys_crime_rate.php
Maybe DeBlasio's crime-fighting initiatives aren't as important as the fact that more rich people are moving to the city?
3
Discussion of why poorer residents may not mobilize/relocate in correspondence with crime trends omits a simple underlying issue: the means to do so. Residential mobility -- the luxury of choosing where one lives -- non-linearly favors the financial means and flexibility, as well as lack of impeding social and professional infrastructure limiters (car, job, subsidized or already-owned housing, children/school situation). The young, the single, those with high disposable income, those at a place in life to craft their living environment with full liberty, those without additional sensitivities to school quality (eg DC's shifts) -- these people, facing desirable choices and lacking the additional impediments of crime fear (and race fear their parents held) are able to flex their mobility choices in ways that facilitate the middle-classification of urban spaces, thereby expanding crime reduction and social resources in those areas in order to further expand access to such previously undesired areas by their improvement, which becomes a self feeding process.
11
Crime reduction is one reason, but not the only. The amount of time spent commuting due to traffic is high on the list. New homes don't come with much of yard anymore, so that makes it more of an even trade. The social opportunities are abundant in the urban area. There is such a variety of services and activities in an urban area often walking distance. It is also an environmentally responsible choice. So crime yes, but so many other reasons too.
6
I grew up in Queens and went to college in Manhattan in the early 1990s. And I'm white, if that matters. During this time, when we native New Yorkers were well aware of the "good" neighborhoods and the ones to stay away from, my classmates from Wisconsin and MIchigan and California had no such preconceptions--they saw the positives of neighborhoods we had long forgotten. They found great places to live and great communities like the Lower East Side, Williamsburg, Harlem.
I chose to learn from them, and to not let the fears of the white-flight era cloud my vision of my own city. I've been living in the central Bronx for several years, where my husband and I own property and have made friends with our neighbors, all on our middle-class salaries.
If you look at most of the "gentrifiers" who moved into "emerging" neighborhoods (and probably made a killing in the process) you'll notice that most are transplants, not New Yorkers. In fact, in many of these areas, it's hard to find many native New Yorkers at all.
I chose to learn from them, and to not let the fears of the white-flight era cloud my vision of my own city. I've been living in the central Bronx for several years, where my husband and I own property and have made friends with our neighbors, all on our middle-class salaries.
If you look at most of the "gentrifiers" who moved into "emerging" neighborhoods (and probably made a killing in the process) you'll notice that most are transplants, not New Yorkers. In fact, in many of these areas, it's hard to find many native New Yorkers at all.
32
This study is pretty specific and constrained in developing implications from the findings - and this study mostly illustrates how banal most academic research is - but the comments, oh my gosh - most of these comments are nothing but hubris and speculative reframing of those otherwise uninteresting findings. As crime goes down in a place people find living in the place more attractive. Wow! Really? All the tripe about: other causal factors (there must be some - that is certain - but this study doesn't shed light on what they are or their relative contributions to explaining the observed outcome phenomena - so we may as well take this opportunity to argue that artists and gays lead the authentic gentrification and bad-ol' yuppies should be banned); and loosely related justice and equity issues (speculating that more affluent new-comers are likely to report crimes that don't actually happen? Where does that come from?); and the like are just vacuous pandering to political correctness and to inflated self images. We can't make a simple observation that lower crime attracts inflows of people without dealing with everyone's self-satisfied memories of moving to Manhattan as a young graduate/artist/hipster. The comments pages here are becoming circular back-patting fora for every Sex-in-the-City or Thorougly Modern Millie wannabe.
7
I recently read an essay by E.B. White titled "Here Is New York". It was written in 1948 and republished by the author's son in 1959 with a forward noting how much New York had changed but remained the same in those ten years (long before hipsters and when most people went to college). One of the constants White's essay addresses is that New York has always been a city of newcomers as well as what he calls 'natives and commuters'. So perhaps it's not so much a question of gentrification, but just more of the same old same old.
2
Perhaps the professors have it backwards when they suggest that gentrification follows in the wake of a falling crime-rate. It seems to me that what actually happens is that writers, artists and middle-class pioneers move into deteriorated neighborhoods, where they serve as early "gentrifiers" and get the ball rolling. Gentrification then becomes the norm, crime falls and the writers and artists are themselves forced to move on.
173
I agree with Jim Hougan as I have a personal anecdote of the beginning of the gentrification phase in Brooklyn. I worked for a security guard company in Manhattan and remembered being assigned to provide security for a community meeting in downtown Brooklyn (Schermerhorn St) where the discussion/complaint was about how to stop rent-control tenants from being evicted in order to accommodate newly stamped college graduates who were fleeing the suburbs of Long Island to be closer to their jobs in the city. I left that job and moved away. When I came back to BK in 2006, I couldn't believe the transformation of the downtown skyline. I even went in one of those high rise condos to price a 1 bedroom apartment on the 3rd floor. To my dismay they were asking $500,000. for an 800 square foot condo with views of the projects next door. So in my opinion, it's the young people that move in first to be near other young people or far away from parents. They're the urban pioneers.
4
Agree. I don't understand how studies like this (or the people writing about them) don't better admit their bias/limitations. There are VERY few things in social science where one can say definitely "X causes Y. period." It almost always cuts both ways or there is another cause that is highly correlated to X. So a claim like "lower crime causes gentrification" should automatically be looked at very critically.
3
We did this as JHU grad students. Moved into cheap rental housing in Baltimore, neighborhood gentrified around us.
1
Seems rather shallow analysis. Some numbers would help.
Perhaps intuitive, but having lived in two emerging neighborhoods in DC and one in NYC, it's the cost of housing, transportation, and amenities that made the difference.
Perhaps intuitive, but having lived in two emerging neighborhoods in DC and one in NYC, it's the cost of housing, transportation, and amenities that made the difference.
9
"Broken windows" policing works. I fled the city years ago over weariness with petty car break ins and quality of life disruptions , not fears of rape and murder. Nostalgia for the segregated ghetto of permanent poverty would be absurdly amusing if it were not so patronizing. Give those people economic justice and they too will flee to the suburbs and seek safety. You cant help anyone move forward without investment and tax revenue and you wont keep them in the city if the city is not safe.
7
Not so sure.
Pioneer gentrifiers moved into high-crime areas like Bushwick and are moving into still dicey South Bronx. Same with SoHo/TriBeCa, scary, deserted areas in the 60s/70s when early gentrifiers moved in.
But, hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good story.
Pioneer gentrifiers moved into high-crime areas like Bushwick and are moving into still dicey South Bronx. Same with SoHo/TriBeCa, scary, deserted areas in the 60s/70s when early gentrifiers moved in.
But, hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good story.
52
My daughter taught in the South Bronx from 2013-2015 before moving on to Alphabet City. Neither is particulsrly dicey anymore, but were seriously dicey when I went to HS in the 1970s.
1
I on the upper east side in the late 60's and early 70's when heroin addicts rules the streets. These young men wanted money for a fix and some were even jerking from lack of heroin. I have lived in several major cities around the country and the first time I moved to Atlanta, we had a serious crime problem here.
I moved into a wonderful older neighborhood in Brookhaven near the Capital City Country Club. The home break ins were so bad we had to hire our own security force. We hired combat veterans and we could not arm them due to potential law suits. We armed them with base ball bats and picked big guys with lots of combat experience - our crime problem went away.
Forty years later, I moved back to Atlanta. I moved from the far north suburbs of Chicago and we had no crime issues there. But being a frequent flier - O'Hare in winter is impossible and Hartsfield rarely has delays.
Remembering the crime issues, I did a search on line to identify low crime neighborhoods and chose Forsyth County, north of Atlanta like where I lived in the Chicago area.
Since moving here I found that Forsyth County is the fastest growing large county in the US and has been for several years. The reasons are many but our new Sheriff used to live and work in law enforcement in Brookhaven - my old neighborhood and he moved to Forsyth County - in my neighborhood to get out of the crime belt.
The worst crime in 4 years in my neighborhood was some kids spray painting street signs.
I moved into a wonderful older neighborhood in Brookhaven near the Capital City Country Club. The home break ins were so bad we had to hire our own security force. We hired combat veterans and we could not arm them due to potential law suits. We armed them with base ball bats and picked big guys with lots of combat experience - our crime problem went away.
Forty years later, I moved back to Atlanta. I moved from the far north suburbs of Chicago and we had no crime issues there. But being a frequent flier - O'Hare in winter is impossible and Hartsfield rarely has delays.
Remembering the crime issues, I did a search on line to identify low crime neighborhoods and chose Forsyth County, north of Atlanta like where I lived in the Chicago area.
Since moving here I found that Forsyth County is the fastest growing large county in the US and has been for several years. The reasons are many but our new Sheriff used to live and work in law enforcement in Brookhaven - my old neighborhood and he moved to Forsyth County - in my neighborhood to get out of the crime belt.
The worst crime in 4 years in my neighborhood was some kids spray painting street signs.
5
Georgia cops, in general, know how to get things done. They just have to be supported and encouraged by the taxpayers to clean up the problems.
1
Well... a no-brainer, wouldn't you say. See so many U.S. cities this very moment, Cincinnati for sure among them. Renaissance and revival, and for the very obvious reasons here written. Highly positive.
4
Thanks for the article. It was very interesting.
Sorry to be so boring, but can anyone tell us where we can find a longer version of the study. I don't see it on the Urban Institute website or the professor's NYU page.
Sorry to be so boring, but can anyone tell us where we can find a longer version of the study. I don't see it on the Urban Institute website or the professor's NYU page.
2
It's a hoax
2
How does this study address the fact that young people were already moving back to the city when crime was still at its height. NYC had a thrilling street level cultural edge in the eighties and early nineties. I arrived in 1990 as murders were still climbing, -to an eventual all time high of 2,300. I was 28 and never gave it a thought. Nor did anyone I know talk about crime, though we all knew certain neighborhoods you had to be careful in. I would venture that it's not falling crime that predicts gentrification, but a generational tide of young artists. We never dreamed our exquisite, abandoned, post industrial wreck of a waterfront would become home to thousands of yuppies and condo developments. The artists are the ones who signal that life and beauty and freedom are taking place HERE. Years later, the other kids arrive.
83
Yes, of course. Your individual perceptions and anecdotal evidence, derived from a single city, completely refute the reasoned conclusions of respected scholars drawn from a professional analysis of nationwide data.
5
Having lived in Brookyn in the late 80's here's my theory: crime falls when cops pay attention to it. And cops pay attention when white people complain. Ergo, crime goes down with gentrification.
50
"white people" are not fearful of being targeted as a "snitch". They are politically active, lobby their elected officials, attend community board meetings, PTA meetings, etc. So do many "non-white families--they empower themselves to make their environment better. Maybe this behavior will become the norm.
1
I would like to know more what the researchers found out about transportation - not just commute times. The NYC subways improved considerably in the 1990-2000's, and I bet that made more neighborhoods attractive.
The expansion of the T in Boston during the 1980's and 1990's made many more communities accessible and attractive to more people, especially affluent ones.
The expansion of the T in Boston during the 1980's and 1990's made many more communities accessible and attractive to more people, especially affluent ones.
9
Throughout my working life (35 years so far), I've never lived anywhere where crime was even remotely an issue. My wife and I have never had to lock our cars or our front door. When our children were growing up, we never had to be concerned about where they were, or whether they were safe.
People who think one must live in a large city to reap the cultural and vocational benefits are simply misinformed. There are thousands of communities to live in where one can have all the arts and job opportunities one might desire. Communities where "gentrification" is a word one might have to look up.
As for those who live in large cities on purpose, de gustibus non est disputandum, as they say.
People who think one must live in a large city to reap the cultural and vocational benefits are simply misinformed. There are thousands of communities to live in where one can have all the arts and job opportunities one might desire. Communities where "gentrification" is a word one might have to look up.
As for those who live in large cities on purpose, de gustibus non est disputandum, as they say.
8
Thanks for the tip, but the article specifically addresses urban crime, not suburban or rural.
9
Sounds like you read David Brooks "Bobos in Paradise" (2000) and believed it! I hope you find someone to buy your house someday. The suburbs are dying.
2
The suburbs of SF are thriving. People who would have lived in SF, Berkeley, or Oakland a decade ago cannot afford to do so now. They are moving to the suburbs. The suburbs are getting more exciting.
1
Media coverage actually is the real mover
Crime is very low in many places
But shows like friends/sex and the city and positive media coverage is free advertising that lures people
Good jobs are also key
Demographics such as fewer kids and shifting wants also play a role
Again crime is very low in many suburban and even rural places and yet no one is moving there
It's not the trendy thing to do
Crime is very low in many places
But shows like friends/sex and the city and positive media coverage is free advertising that lures people
Good jobs are also key
Demographics such as fewer kids and shifting wants also play a role
Again crime is very low in many suburban and even rural places and yet no one is moving there
It's not the trendy thing to do
6
Falling crime has not yet happened in Chicago, instead the big condo boom began some years ago and now all those people who spent $250K for 800 square feet with a granite kitchen pretend that nothing is wrong in their neighborhoods. All to keep the resale high. The mayor does his best to play ostrich with the homicide epidemic in this city, encouraging massive building of high-end condos with no end in sight to the cranes and construction...a bizarre two-tier world predicated on denial has emerged.
10
Unfortunately for the folks who live on the south & west side of Chicago, the crime is concentrated there. Murder seldom happens in the other 3/4
of the city.
of the city.
In Brooklyn, despite earning a solidly middle class income, I can't afford to live in neighborhoods that I was afraid to drive through thirty years ago. That's progress, isn't it?
150
Yes, it is.
2
Well, Kayemtee, my grandfather operated a candy pushcart in Fort Greene Park in the late 1920s, and Fort Greene was grand, far beyond my grandfather's means. In fact, it was beyond my solidly middle-class parents' means even in the early 1960s.
Fort Greene became crime ridden quickly in the early 1970s. A classmate's family had to leave their longtime home. Others, too, left. At great cost, I might add, when you consider new, long commutes to their jobs in Manhattan and more expensive housing elsewhere.
What do you call the precipitous decline of Fort Greene and places like it? For whom do you think the magnificent townhouses of Prospect Heights, Clinton Hill, and Crown Heights were built?
That these places are being restored, that their streets are quieter and cleaner now, is all to the good. It's progress.
Fort Greene became crime ridden quickly in the early 1970s. A classmate's family had to leave their longtime home. Others, too, left. At great cost, I might add, when you consider new, long commutes to their jobs in Manhattan and more expensive housing elsewhere.
What do you call the precipitous decline of Fort Greene and places like it? For whom do you think the magnificent townhouses of Prospect Heights, Clinton Hill, and Crown Heights were built?
That these places are being restored, that their streets are quieter and cleaner now, is all to the good. It's progress.
2
I remember massive arson and looting during the 1977 blackout, particularly bad in Bushwick, now where people priced out of DUMBO then Williamsburg have retreated to. Next stop, East New York, I guess.
1
Fab story...Agree with most of it. I live in the Williamsburg area(I am a senior) of Brooklyn which has led the way in America re gentrification and have seen the dramatic drop in crime. A few things to add that I have seen or read.
Areas that are not total majority "minority" are harder to gentrify than areas that are only partly minority.
Hipsters like "shabby chic", ie the areas that look the most blighted are the ones they love the most.
Hipsters are atoning for their parent's "sins", ie 50 yrs of white flight to the suburbs. Ironically there is flight again, blacks fleeing from whites in these gentrified areas since blacks can't on average afford them.
Hipsters are willing to live two, three or more to an apt., since a single hipster on average cannot afford the soaring rents.
Hipsters have given up on home ownership on average. They can't afford it.
They love expensive organic, gluten free, healthy foods. Even though it is very expensive they will buy it in lieu of cheaper processed food.
Last but not least, even if there is some crime left in areas hipsters are moving into, it is rarely (at lease serious crime like murder etc) black on white, it is black on black.
Areas that are not total majority "minority" are harder to gentrify than areas that are only partly minority.
Hipsters like "shabby chic", ie the areas that look the most blighted are the ones they love the most.
Hipsters are atoning for their parent's "sins", ie 50 yrs of white flight to the suburbs. Ironically there is flight again, blacks fleeing from whites in these gentrified areas since blacks can't on average afford them.
Hipsters are willing to live two, three or more to an apt., since a single hipster on average cannot afford the soaring rents.
Hipsters have given up on home ownership on average. They can't afford it.
They love expensive organic, gluten free, healthy foods. Even though it is very expensive they will buy it in lieu of cheaper processed food.
Last but not least, even if there is some crime left in areas hipsters are moving into, it is rarely (at lease serious crime like murder etc) black on white, it is black on black.
13
I'm shocked! This revelation that making anything better and more appealing attracts people is 'news'. What happened to 'making things better' is actually a 'bad' thing because it drives out some poor people? Still, left out is the fact that less crime make people less fearful of each other; this means more use of public places where people mix and experience each other and less reluctance to personally interact with each other. Throw in increased value of property followed by increased incentive to maintain and even improve it and the obvious becomes even more visible,.
86
The section of Chelsea in the photo was a former industrial area largely occupied by meat processing facilities. What little housing there was has not really changed that much demographicly. It was always prime real estate on the edge of the West Village. The new glass tower condos have not so much as changed, but rather supplemented the existing demographics, and a lot of the amenities such as trendy restaurants actually preceded and spurred that development as opposed to being the result of it. Not a good example.
7
This article reinforces the obvious but often ignored fact that crime levels are a primary component of urban development. Cities already have the major economic advantage of population density enabling shorter travel times to jobs and leisure opportunities, but people will choose a longer commute to gain safety and security. When cities allow public safety to degrade, they accept their own decline as those who economically can leave will be more likely to do so. But it's not just a matter of lower or higher income - all families need public safety. Any well-run city should insist upon, and invest in, great policing.
36
And yet, in the social circles where this publication is most popular, Gentrification is and continues to be, vilified. The idea being that integration of minorities into white neighborhoods is great, but the opposite is of course, oppressive.
Even in this very article the quote "Wealthier residents may bring new tensions to neighborhoods, fearing — and reporting — criminal activity where none exists. " is only here to push a false narrative rather than being based on any convincing evidence.
Could it possibly be that the incoming new residents don't subscribe to the widespread cultural value of refusing to talk to or cooperate with police? Should we pretend that reporting crime to police is somehow a negative, racist thing that should be discouraged? This is the exact kind of activity that lowers crime rates in neighborhoods and helps all residents of all races.
No one should be forced to apologize for the neighborhood they choose to live in. Nor should one be forced to apologize for trying to better that neighborhood. This is true even if one happens to have the detestable condition of being born with white skin.
Even in this very article the quote "Wealthier residents may bring new tensions to neighborhoods, fearing — and reporting — criminal activity where none exists. " is only here to push a false narrative rather than being based on any convincing evidence.
Could it possibly be that the incoming new residents don't subscribe to the widespread cultural value of refusing to talk to or cooperate with police? Should we pretend that reporting crime to police is somehow a negative, racist thing that should be discouraged? This is the exact kind of activity that lowers crime rates in neighborhoods and helps all residents of all races.
No one should be forced to apologize for the neighborhood they choose to live in. Nor should one be forced to apologize for trying to better that neighborhood. This is true even if one happens to have the detestable condition of being born with white skin.
269
What widespread culture value of not talking to or cooperating with the police are you talking about? Where do you get that from? You do have a certain segment in the poorer black communities that will not talk to the police. And a lot of them are scared of retaliation from gang members. Those are the ones you hear about in the news. But they are in the minority and it's not widespread.
5
Jesse, I agree with most of your comment and also encourage everyone to report crime to police.
I would like to add some ways in which crime has increased with gentrification in some DC neighborhoods. Sometimes the wealthier recent arrivals are easier "picking" and are more likely to have their new smart phones snatched. There are many other examples where things that were technically minor violations of the law were accepted by the pre-gentrification communities, such as double parking near churches on Sundays, or double parking with the blinkers on more generally, or louder music. Or turning a blind eye to unofficial sidewalk commerce (of non-illicit goods).
These are just a few minor examples of crimes that long times residents may not appreciate newer residents reporting.
I would like to add some ways in which crime has increased with gentrification in some DC neighborhoods. Sometimes the wealthier recent arrivals are easier "picking" and are more likely to have their new smart phones snatched. There are many other examples where things that were technically minor violations of the law were accepted by the pre-gentrification communities, such as double parking near churches on Sundays, or double parking with the blinkers on more generally, or louder music. Or turning a blind eye to unofficial sidewalk commerce (of non-illicit goods).
These are just a few minor examples of crimes that long times residents may not appreciate newer residents reporting.
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Sounds like you have a huge chip on your shoulder. Surprise - Blacks and Latinos want less crime in their communities. We also want banks to provide loans for us to buy property and build businesses in our communities. We welcome whites who share that vision for equal opportunity. You might want to research the history of "redlining" in urban communities before you decide that your "white skin" is not providing some advantage for you.
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