Why Republicans Don’t Even Try to Win Cities Anymore

Nov 03, 2016 · 237 comments
Vesuviano (Los Angeles, CA)
The Republicans in their present incarnation will never - never - regain the cities. Big cities first of all attract intelligent people who want to experience a much fuller life than can be found in the country. Once in a big city, those people are exposed to a variety of news and cultural sources, and are very likely to encounter and exchange ideas with people of other races and from different countries.

People who want to hang out only with members of their own race and who think 1956 was "the good old days" aren't likely to move to a major metropolitan area in the first place.
Gordon Jones (California)
Believe that Republican focus on non urban/rural areas also related to strong Gerrymandering that has resulted in heavy Republican dominance of our House of Representatives. That strategy has worked well for the Republican Party and has in turn given us a dis-functional government. Cleaning up the Gerrymandering after the next census will only occur if we get a moderate Supreme Court justice in place. Thus the new rumblings from some Republicans about continuing to oppose any and all nominees for the open Supreme Court position. Party first, country second. Sad.
GlobeTrotter (DC)
The article concisely states the reasons for urban, especially inner-city, decline. White flight took the jobs in to suburban areas without looking in the rear view mirror. One of the suburbanites favorite past times is blaming those left behind in the cities for creeping decay, rising crime, etc., not understanding the predictability of such processes when insufficient jobs and taxes are removed from the equation.
Ellen Liversidge (San Diego CA)
The urban-rural divide also seemed relevant in the Sanders-Clinton duel, with rural going heavily for Bernie and cities for Hillary. However, it's hard to know for sure due to voting irregularities and the DNC/media thumb on the scale just what the real numbers were.
Jim (New York)
See Reagan photo in article. I remember this day clearly. I had just moved from this Bronx neighborhood to Queens. This article misrepresents this day. R Reagan was not there courting urban voters. It was a photo op and to condemn democrats. It was political opportunism. Angry crowds gathered knowing they were being used as props. They surrounded Reagan and taunted him loudly. His entourage became frightened and they shoved Reagan into his car. JUST BEFORE Reagan ducked into his car he snarled and screamed loudly at the crowd, "What's wrong with you people! I'm trying to help you." No one was buying that line. See the TV news coverage. He ran for his life. Really.
Steve (Middlebury)
Interesting article. Since suburbia is, for all intents and purposes, a failed living arrangement, as well as the greatest misallocation of resources, perhaps after our latest escapade in the ME, it seems appropriate that the Republican Party finds themselves aligned with what is a failed living arrangement! Sweet.
planetary occupant (earth)
As others here have noted, what is there in the Republican party platform that would be attractive to those of us who enjoy and support the country? Sell the National Parks or give them to the states? Privatize Social Security? Promote tax schemes that continue to favor the most wealthy at the expense of the rest of us?
Republicans complain loudly about the national debt, while their presidents have been the worst about contributing to it. The most recent Bush administration put two wars on our grandchildrens' credit cards and caused many families the pain of loss of loved ones, for no reason. Many Republicans in Congress deserve the appellation of "traitor" for their consistent efforts to prevent anything being done that might support the President that we elected but they hate.
Explain to me why any sane person should vote Republican.
jrgfla (Pensacola, FL)
For more than a century America's largest cities have been the source of the most opportunities for generational change - true for both native-born people and new immigrants. This remains true today. Unfortunately, alongside this positive environment sits the overbearing burden of big government.
Cities dominate the national news and receive much more from the national government than they provide. They depend on it. Suburban and rural areas subsidize the big cities. Those who live outside of the urban core have diminished government support and depend on self initiative to secure their future.
There is no way the urbanites will vote Republican in the face of the present situation - and the same goes for those on the other 'side'.
blueberryintomatosoup (Houston, TX)
"Cities dominate the national news and receive much more from the national government than they provide."
How do you figure that? Large cities have populations as large or larger than some states, such as Iowa and Nebraska. Tax rates are usually higher in large cities. More people equals more taxes paid, more businesses, etc.
The only way your statement could be true is if you believe city dwellers don't pay taxes.
Steve Legault (Seattle WA)
It may be that you are right as far federal revenues but it is completely false in terms of state dollars. I live in the most populous county in Washington and residents here receive 88 cents to the dollar while rural residents receive as much per resident as 1.23. All those miles of road to transport so few people, teachers in schools that have so few students, it is a lesson in economies of scale.
Steve (Middlebury)
@jrgfla. I think you have drunk the Kool Aid. I live in rural-ish Vermont. We are a rural backwater state, with more trees and cows than people and cannot do a thing for ourselves without government support, federal and state. I run a seasonal business and we depend on people coming from those urban areas to get us through the rest of the year. They come for the trees and the cows, year after year after year, summer after summer after summer. It is early November and it is very quiet!
Jerry Sturdivant (Las Vegas)
Why would I vote for a party that promises to take my healthcare, cut my Social Security, lower my Medicare and block my wage increases; all for more tax cuts for the rich? Hello?
stonebreakr (carbon tx.)
Why would you vote for a candidate who tells the billionaires she has two campaign speeches, one for billionaires and a beautiful lie for me. That doesn't make any sense either Jerry. Us and them doesn't work for me.
lynda b (sausalito ca)
Why vote for the billionaire who lies to everybody and has not just a different speech but a different position every time he talks? Who has NO actual platform, just hate and the next convenient, sound bite. Who represents all that is repugnant in the abuse of rich, white male privilege. Who has proven by his actions (which speak louder than words) that the only thing he consistently cares about is himself and what he can get.
Scottilla (Brooklyn)
Stonebreaker, And you're willing to give up your health care, social security, Medicare and wage increases for that? Good for you!
Ken (MT Vernon, NH)
There is soul searching all around.

Inner city voters are wondering why exactly they vote Democrat every time to be repaid with lip service and god awful governance.

Trump will draw a surprisingly high share of the Black vote.
Rick (LA)
We need to revisit the great compromise or 1787, that is where it was decided that each state gets 2 Senators. That means Wyoming with barely a half million people, has the same amount of Senators as California with 35 Million.
So a person from Wyoming has 70 times more power in the Senate then a Californian. This is why we only have 8 Supreme Court Justices right now.
Of course with continued Republican obstructionism. Democrats will eventually have a 60 seat majority. Then they can nominate whoever they want, and the Republican won't be able to do anything about it.
stonebreakr (carbon tx.)
Republican obstruction, Democratic destruction, it's all the same. Wake up!
Dan Styer (Wakeman, Ohio)
Wonderful, information-dense graphic. Thanks!
jacrane (Davison, Mi.)
It's truly a shame that the residents of the big cities don't understand how the democrats are the racists. They treat certain races as though they can't take care of themselves and have to be taken care of. Big cities like Detroit have had democrat majority for over 50 years and look where it has gotten then. The Republican party was formed to help black people but LBJ came up with feeding poverty. Education and jobs is what a Republican would teach.
blueberryintomatosoup (Houston, TX)
Wow! You have plunged into the deep end of the right wing topsy-turvy kool-aid. Corruption and racism are not the same thing. Corruption, white flight and the demise of manufacturing contributed to the decline of some cities. The racism came from whites, who decided they would not live in the same neighborhoods as Blacks.
Democrats do not think certain races are incapable of taking care of themselves. Republicans do think that. We see the reality that some races/ethnicities have higher percentages of poor people than do other groups. We know that some reasons for that are historical and institutional racism. Republicans deny that racism still affects certain groups, but they are very sure that racism against whites has contributed to the downfall of the white working class, which is completely untrue.
The Republican party was most definitely not formed to help Blacks, not even in the time of Lincoln. The Republican party solidified itself as the party of white people as a reaction to the civil rights laws they were very much against, and the party has continued to scapegoat certain groups as the cause of all their ills.
Democrats are very much in favor of education as a path to good jobs. Texas, Louisiana and other states have shown us how little Republicans care about the education and welfare of all children. They only care about their own children and finding ways for their children to get an advantage over other children.
Olivers (NYC)
Democrats may have taken the black and Jewish vote for granted. But someday the Republicans will have to ask themselves why they usually make government out to be the bad guy and insult entire voting blocs and constituencies.

Code phrases like "states' rights" don't go unnoticed anymore, if ever, and republicans running against government squander an opportunity to expand their base. In short, "government" is in and of itself a code word meaning " those people who live in cities."
More than likely it means race.
s. cavalli (NJ)
Cudos to E Badger for this dialog and, as I see it, an accounting of the demise of my country. Asians, Africans and Central Americans re now determining the future of the United States. Whites are insignificant because of illegal immigration.

We had sound control systems in place but they were ignored by the left and the right. We allowed Democracy to slip away and are quickly becoming a welfare state.
blueberryintomatosoup (Houston, TX)
Asians and Africans are not new arrivals. Africans especially have contributed to the success of this country without benefitting commensurate to their contributions. Asians have also contributed greatly to this country for centuries, although they are still not considered American enough. I don't know much about contributions from Central Americas, but I'm sure they are not negligible. As for Mexicans, which are North American, by the way, they contributed to what are now parts of the US since the 1500s, and continue to contribute now all over the US.
Whites are still the majority in this country. The population of undocumented immigrants is around 0.04% of the US population. Are you saying that this tiny group has bested the oh-so-much-more-superior white population? How embarrassing for you.
If your idea of Democracy is that whites are superior and, therefore, deserve to be the ones controlling this country, with other groups being at the mercy of whites, then, yes, your democracy is no more. The rest of us continue to fight to maintain and improve democracy in this country.
JS (Ottawa)
When that photo of Reagan was taken touring the Bronx I was working and living in NYC. There were places in the city that you did not even drive through. Today, the people in those areas have a future and hopes that were once an impossible dream.

Why did things change?

I can only conclude that it was the elimination of the presence of so many Republican small government racists and racism deniers that held the cities back. Maybe not in a cause-and-effect, direct line way but at least in an association.

Work with me here.... the suburbs and exurbia used to be safe, secure, stable and all, but now? After becoming infested with white flight Republicans what happened? Opioids and other drugs like meth became the norm, crime, skyrocketing death rates for whites, declining property values, church attendance and academic achievement to name a few.

Non statistical bottom line: when Republicans move into your neighbourhood your quality of like and property values will sink.
sandy dheer (New Delhi)
Tightening...tightening and indeed the Presidential race for white house is getting heightened and tightened each day as the D day approaches..will the swing states, the key states and fringe voters and early vote casters decide about who's gonna win. Donald is holding his 'trump cards" from the cache' of FBI Comey's e mail revelations and Wikileaks, whereas Hillary is backing on "Obama care", used metaphorically, she is looking for Obama's support to insure her win. Frankly speaking both candidates are "clay footed"...with no firm standings and American voters have to choose between the bad and the worse, and this pendulum like swing will go on and on yo-yoing till the D day. can we expect some trick out of the hat...or as the Americans would say..."till it's over don't just blow over
Peter Zenger (N.Y.C.)
This article obfuscates something that is actually very straightforward.

People support the Democratic Party because it is a functioning machine, a place you go to get a favor, assistance with a problem, some sort of grant, handout or welfare payment.

The Republicans devote themselves to telling everyone that the best deal you could possible get, would be for your boss to get a tax cut - not even realizing that some people don't even have a job.

How well can that work in an city crowded with immigrants and low income workers? Not very, which is the only thing that is going to keep Hillary from being swallowed whole by the Trump snake.
gw (usa)
I've noticed a striking pattern straight through the suburbs of the nearest blue city in my red state. The inner suburbs to the east are reliably blue, the ever-sprawling outer suburbs to the west vote redder as density decreases. My own suburb in the middle has gone from red to what I'd call purple over the years and it seems a natural progression that we'll eventually be solidly blue.

Given national patterns of young people choosing urban living, Democrats may give Republicans more competition in future years, but for now the rural reds still out-number the urban blues in this state, and there is much frustration among city dwellers with our extremist red state legislature.
Joseph (USA)
The Republican party hasn't been productive since the scorched earth policys of Newt Gingrich and his anti-government cabal took office. It's continued to this day with Donald Trump as chief cheerleader.
toom (Germany)
The voters need to watch what the parties do rather than say. The GOP constantly tries to cut food stamps and health care for the poor. So the poor in cities vote for the Dems. The poor in the south continue to vote GOP, since they are told that the undeserving poor (who are not in the suth) are just a racial underclass and need to be punished. So the poor in the cities vote Dem, the poor in the south vote GOP.
Dismal (Springfield, VA)
Thank, or blame, Richard Nixon. Opening up China to world trade led to a hemorrhaging of jobs to China, The EPA, and the Southern strategy.
Pierre Paul (France)
In the process of selecting a candidate , the voters in primaries in France look which of their candidates has the highest probability to get elected as president. The problem with the republicans is that they chose the candidate that is least likely to get elected. Any republican candidate except the 2 front runners Trump and Cruz would probably beat Clinton.
Why do the republicans not argue that "small government" means "efficient government" rather than "no government" ? That would make them more electable in cities too and there is plenty of room to make the state more efficient and reduce the cost of government.
NYHUGUENOT (Charlotte, NC)
Republicans do try but meet the strongest resistance not from the people in the streets but the entrenched organizations that feed off of the people. Republicans are met with such strong hostility that there's hardly a reason to bother. There's a Black woman in Utah, Mia Love who is the first Black Republican female congress member. A Senator in South Carolina and others like Glenn and Guilroy. Guilroy switched parties.
The cities are filled with many who feed off of the welfare system. That's why they go there because they know they can't do so. 60,000 homeless people? Thousands of drug addicts? People who engage in crime as a way of life and people who are willing to ignore it? They are hardly the constituency of a party that believes in law and order and self sufficiency. That touts equal opportunity to those who don't take advantage of it by dropping out of school and other decisions that take away that opportunity in favor of a party that promises equal outcome regardless of your decisions.
The cities aren't running much better if at all than when Reagan visited them. Here they are driving out the dependent folks into the suburbs and rural areas through gentrification. My once rural then suburban community I've lived in since 1979 is now surrounded by nearly 5000 apartments. There have been three burglaries on my street in the last two months. Meanwhile the city has 25,000 apartments being built for the influx for the two banks and those who live off of their spending.
blueberryintomatosoup (Houston, TX)
At least one third of the homeless are veterans. The percentage of homeless families with children keeps rising. Do some honest research on that subject, and the reasons why poor children of all races drop out of school at higher rates than children of the middle class and above. You will start to see the true cost of poverty, and the true cost of inadequate treatment of mental health/substance abuse. There are no simple, black and white reasons, and there are no easy fixes. One party at least makes an effort, while the other party's efforts are spent finding new ways to obstruct progress and shred the safety net.
NYHUGUENOT (Charlotte, NC)
It's not a "safety net". It's a cradle. That's what the "effort" has created.
Anne-Marie Hislop (Chicago)
Increasing diversity in the suburbs may help in the long run. It might help because more of those often scared suburbanites may change attitudes as folks like Muslims and those who have Spanish as a first language become classmates and neighbors. Those of us who live in the cities live with diversity. We see Muslims not as terrorists conspiring to kill us, but as mothers and dads walking their little ones to neighborhood schools or fellow shoppers at the local grocery store. Ditto for folks from Latin America, Poland, Hindus from India etc. We know both the richness and the struggles of the cities first hand; we see poverty and street people on a daily basis; we often know some of them by name.

It is easy to judge those one sees only on TV or on the occasional trip to the city.. It is easy, as Trump does, to demonize folks because they cannot power out of the extreme disadvantage with which they were saddled at birth. It is only easy when the struggling are not individuals, but rather a class of unknown folks judged from afar.
PaulB (Cincinnati, Ohio)
Since Reagan, the GOP hasn't had an operating ideology that included racial minorities. It is the white man's party, and increasingly, the uneducated white man's party. Look at the roster of current and future GOP luminaries; it's as white as the pro golf tour. From such a pool of self-selected "talent," (no minorities need apply), how could anyone expect the Republicans to develop, much less advocate, a cohesive urban policy? Not going to happen.
Native New Yorker (nyc)
If you think that the Bronx and Harlem have come a long way since self-destructing in the late 60's and early 70s, well before Ronald Reagan came looking around your right, but for the wrong reasons. Reagan paid this high profiled visit to the ghetto as an example of how the the urban poor were completely ignored by the Democrats that controlled our city and other big cities in the US. The big real estate titans in NYC bought up the tens of thousands of abandoned properties on the UWS, all of Harlem, the bronx and in Brooklyn from small landlords that abandoned these unprotected neighborhoods after the rioting of their residents burn down and looted everything in sight while Democrats stood by allowing it to occur. For pennies on the dollar these developers first bought all of the commercial properties and the largest tracts nearest the subways. These developers became slumlords of the remaining centuries old buildings and the remaining residents suffered horrible living conditions. These days those slumlords have renovated these building to attract the newly arrived graduate with a job a great rent, much higher than what current residents pay and now seeking to push out those original folks, black because of gentrification. Former Mayor Dinkins promoted this as a wonderful mosaic, because he knew his fortunes on the misfortunes of his own people would benefit his supporters and himself as all Democrats who come from and represent these areas.
Beth Grant DeRoos (Angels Camp California)
This week the LATimes had a piece noting that areas in Orange County, once strong Republican strongholds, may well turn Democrat this year. And the thing to remember is when flying into LAX the entire Los Angeles area has basically become less suburban and separate, and more one urban mass.

And with at least 5 universities, which include USC and UCLA, and more and more high tech companies in the area you have better educated, better paid, more 21 century thinkers, vs the fearful blue collar types who want to live in the mythical past.

The enthusiastic, optimistic more urban Democrat types vs the apocalyptic scenario types living in under educated dying areas in the Midwest and southern states.
NYHUGUENOT (Charlotte, NC)
I'm sure your definition of "under educated" persons includes the many small business owners, farmers, tradesmen etc. People who are self sufficient in other words.
The really under educated folks are the ones voting Democrat because they under earn and need the hand outs the federal government doles out like SNAP, subsidies for the ACA and Section 8 Housing funds.
Mack (Los Angeles CA)
FDR and Eisenhower: only explanations needed.

FDR's administration created and deployed a social safety net and planned the core Interstate highway system, construction of which began in the Eisenhower years.

Unintended consequence of both were the substitution of bureaucracy for bosses as the source of benefits and the rise of a large class of suburban voters without ties to urban political machines or party affiliations.
Perspectival (New York)
This analysis does not go deep enough as a cultural critique of our growing differences. Sure, racism is an aspect of this divide, but it's historical origins, and development to the present day, needs an account that allows for an explanation of very divergent world views.
In Moses and Monotheism, Freud's last book, he analyzed why Jewish culture developed a type of intelligence that allowed Jews throughout history, in the face of ongoing persecution, to adapt as successfully as they did. Freud described that intelligence as an ability to abstract, to look upon one's situation at a distance, and assess the best course. This type of thinking might be described as very logical, very (ironically) secular, less polluted by myth and superstition. It is this difference we are seeing in the Urban/heartland divide. The heartland is so obsessed with their magical thinking, which is very similar to their Christian evangelical thinking, that they rendered almost as pawns by the 'conservative' right wing intelligensia. I believe this is closer to an accurate explanation for what is happening in this country. Magical belief is harder to stomach by more and more of us. And the concentration of that group largely resides in the cities.
Brian (Oakland, CA)
Brute facts: policies are directed not at the top .01, .1, or 1% (they get special treatment), but the top 20%. These are upper middle-class suburbanites, who combine income (hence aggregate donations that exceed the wealthiest) and votes (which the wealthy can't offer).

Their lives matter. A family moving into a California suburb whose public schools test highest face $1 million mortgages. Yet these communities have family incomes of $140,000 or less, well below what such a mortgage typically needs. They get the mortgages, however, because of government policies (and down payment capital from aging parents). A mortgage over $650K isn't reviewed by the gov't, a decision that lets banks offer different loans to different people. Interest-only loans are alive here. They allow homeowners to maximize the mortgage interest deduction, which peaks around the interest level of a million dollar mortgage. That allows one to deduct one's interest, all of one's housing expense if its interest-only. Hence for 2,4, or 6 or more years, homeowners live free. That lets them save, to pay principal when it kicks in.

The U.S. taxpayer subsidizes these homeowners, via said deductions. Banks decide who deserves them. Using the rubric that test scores = property value, they select those whose offspring they believe test well. Ethnicity is a key factor.

The resulting segregation is severe. Homeowners ask, which candidate will preserve and protect this setup?
David B. (San Francisco)
This theory is a reach, for sure.
Princeton 2015 (Princeton, NJ)
"“If you go 70-30 in Chicago, instead of 90-10 like Trump is going to do, you can win Illinois. That’s not a bad strategy.”

Though on the gubernatorial not presidential level, Governor Rauner came close to doing this. He actively campaigned in Chicago and talked about the rot in government resulting in a government unable to pay its bills. (Sound familiar ?) As a result, Rauner won 21% in Cook County (which includes Chicago.

So I agree with the thrust of the article - "a Republican who runs on effective government instead of against government". However, you could argue that Republicans have already gone down this road. The last two nominees - McCain and Romney - have been fairly moderate. Romney actually pushed through the predecessor to Obamacare - though arguably to his detriment in the election because it was difficult to draw a contrast to Obama in what is still an unpopular program.

However, where is the article's call for Democrats to reach beyond their urban base ? In 1992, you had Bill Clinton, a Southern Democrat who governed as a moderate declaring the "end of big government. Yes, he raised taxes. But he also reformed welfare, passed a tough crime bill, and balanced the federal budget for the first time in decades ! Where is that guy ? Since then, Obama has eviscerated the work requirements in welfare, consistently acted against law-and-order and has run up the national debt to over $19 tn. And Hillary is running far more like Obama than Bill.
bluegal (Texas)
The Dems don't have to reach out to the rural areas...because they already have the vast population. 80% of all Americans now live in or near cities. So that leaves the 20% in the rural area, plus those in the exurbs or suburbs that still vote republican. However, as the suburbs become denser and the same problems that cities have start to turn up there, these people will turn to the Democrats. Why? Because the Democratic ideology of "all in this together" or "stronger together" fit better the cities as they learn to work and live close together and solve problems together. The Republican ideology of "rugged individualism" fits better with the rural mindset, were they really do depend more on themselves than other people.

So it is the Republicans that are going to have to reform their ideology to make it appeal to those in the cities. Let's see if they actually figure this out, or if they go the way of the whigs. My bet is they go the way of the whigs...and probably not a moment too soon.
gw (usa)
Excellent observations, bluegal. I'd add that Milennials are said to be tech-addicted, don't like to drive, prefer aggregate living, delay having children and are tolerant of diversity, indicating urban populations and blue voting are likely to increase.
Colenso (Cairns)
The nation state is on the way out. States and territories are passé. Suburbanites and rural dwellers will become increasingly disenfranchised. Like it or hate it, the retooled city-state is the way forward.

http://benjaminbarber.org/books/if-mayors-ruled-the-world/
Matt (Saratoga Springs)
Over 10 years ago at a Sales meeting we had a Danish or Swedish futurist speak to us (I wish I could remember his name) and he said exactly what you are saying. The people in New York, London, Mumbai, Moscow and Cairo have more in common than people in upstate NY with NYC. The GOP appeals to nostalgia and have no concrete plans for people living in the 21st century.
Jefflz (San Franciso)
During the Nixon years the Republicans pledged to fight against civil rights as part of their Southern Strategy and succdessfully recruited the Red States of the rural south. The pledged to overturn Roe v. Wade ending a woman's right to control her own body and recruited the rural Red Statres of the Midwest where religious fundamentalism thrives. These regions form the core of the Republican Party strength. Because the Republican voting population is dwindling as a percentage of the electorate, the GOP has turned to gerrymandering and wide spread voter suppression. With the help of the Supreme Court they have significantly undermined the Voting Rights Act What reasons would Republicans have to spend their resources trying to win voters in large cities with increasingly racially and culturally mixed populations? None.
Richard (Houston, TX)
Perhaps one of the reasons cities are Democratic and the exurbs and countryside are Republican is due to the geographical and social realities of the two environments? People in densely populated areas need relatively more rules (laws, regulations) so that everyone can get along with one another. People living in sparsely populated areas have more 'elbow room' -- live relatively far apart from one another -- and thus don't need as many rules as city slickers.
Steve Sailer (America)
"Looking back in history, and to a future beyond Mr. Trump, the G.O.P. may need, not a Ronald Reagan, but a Jack Kemp."

And how well did Jack Kemp's protege Paul Ryan do at drawing urban voters in 2012?
an32 (ct)
While Trump is banking on White majority voters, Clinton is out get minority votes. that's why she doesn't even talk about Illegal immigration as if it doesn't exist or it's OK. It's called the "Vote Bank" politics.
DTOM (CA)
The continued diversification of the US spells doom for the GOP. Their grasp on rural voters is their ace card and it is getting tattered. High density urban centers will continue to grow in political power to the detriment of the evangelicals and conservatives.
The Hart-Celler Immigration Act, enacted in '68 has greatly changed the demographic makeup of the American population, as immigrants entering the United States under the new legislation come increasingly from countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, as opposed to Europe. The white vote as a power point is fading and as it does, so goes the GOP.
Dennis D. (New York City)
Republicans used to win in states like New York. Nelson Rockefeller was our governor, Jacob Javitts our Senator. In '84, Reagan won New York. But those days are long gone. Somewhere over the course of time, Republicans decided to appeal to a different segment of the populace. The Southern strategy of Nixon ballooned into a Bible Belt evangelical movement which had no room for ideas on how to solve problems in urban neighborhoods. Cities suffered from white flight to the suburbs, to what they thought was a better life. Ignoring the problem didn't help, it only further pushed it under the carpet. Absence did nothing to solve anything, and so it only festered.

To make matters worse, Republicans began nominating candidates who were so out of touch with urban areas the only time you saw them in a metropolis like NY was when they came to beg for money from big donors.

Now the irony is that the GOP for the first time in a long time has as its candidate the ultimate city dweller, someone so out of place in a rural setting no one has ever seen their candidate in casual clothes, and they never will. Yet here in his hometown, we who know him best will vote for Hillary in a landslide. He not only has no redeeming values for solving urban problems, he was the cause of many of them. As for what the GOP will do after yet another defeat? Frankly, who cares.

DD
Manhattan
Elizabeth (Seattle)
Since their platform is effectively to eliminate people like me from the country's future, I care. Enough people follow them that they don't have to govern to make a difference in my life. I wish a better leader would stand up and tell them to stop being so afraid. I care about those people because I can't just leave the country--it costs a lot of money to emigrate.
Colenso (Cairns)
Good observation. Like my father in law, the GOP candidate used to wear an expensive, tailored suit in his younger day, complete with leather briefcase, even when he was student at Fordham, to push his realestate businessman image.

Now he wears a suit at all times largely because out of it he would reveal how fat he is.

Vanity, thy name is Trump
Liberal (Ohio)
DD, you bring up an important point. The biggest republican donors (outside of the Texans) tend to live in cities--the Koch brothers, Adelson, and the Borgias of Long Island, the Mercers. Interesting that they don't practice what they preach in their propaganda.
Tom (Midwest)
Over 80% of the population live in cities and keeps growing. Not good news for Republicans. Out here in farm country, it takes fewer people to farm and their kids are leaving as soon as they go away to college and don't return.
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
Actually, only about 62.7% of the population lives in cities (U.S. census), while the rest live in suburbs, exurbs and rural areas. That 80.7% number combines suburbs and exurbs with canyon-dwellers, leaving about 19.3% living in rural areas alone. This is why the news is actually great for Republicans, because they outnumber Democrats in many venues outside of true urban areas -- it's primarily why the House is solidly Republican, as are about two-thirds of our statehouses.
jules (california)
Richard - The House is solidly Republican solely due to extreme gerrymandering.

If red state districts were drawn more like California -- in which the Voters First Act replaced self-serving gerrymandering with new criteria to ensure geographic integrity -- the House would eventually look quite different.
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
jules:

Republicans won their majorities in districts DEMOCRATS had gerrymandered to suit their own interests. Now that Republicans hold majorities in so many legislatures, Democrats seem to expect that we have an obligation to draw districts that benefit Democrats.

Life doesn't work that way, and you might consider asking your own candidates to come up with better arguments, or you have NO hope of doing to us what we did to you (after you did it, for many years, to us).
ben (massachusetts)
If Trump’s approach is so bad, then how come the election is tightening up so much? I submit an approach that values work, family, traditional values and respect for the law will in the long run win out because it is the way people have evolved – for better and for worse.

Consider the Democrats and progressives platform today – for legalization of pot, for gay marriage, for abortion, for open borders, for cultural relativity, for mixing of bathrooms, for expanded welfare – aka Obamacare. The primary reason I am voting Democratic is because they have a comparative empathy for other living things.

We just learned courtesy of the NYT that 50% of all births in the country are paid for with Medicaid. Just how is a strategy that promotes the values that produce those results ever going to really takeover. Unless their goal is to bring everybody down to the lowest level; their vision is doomed.

I understand that I’ve simplified. For example, Dem’s aren’t really FOR abortion. But, at the same time many people treat abortion as another form of contraception. Noted, that simplification holds true on all the points raised – objection sustained.

But give me someone espousing positions similar to Trump but more stable and educated, and this Dem is gone.
LonghornSF (Berkeley, CA)
"I submit an approach that values work, family, traditional values and respect for the law"

So what about Trump appeals to you then? His blatant discrimination against women, Muslims, immigrants, and GLBT citizens? His three divorces? His refusal to accept the results of a democratic election? He is none of what you describe.
Matt (Saratoga Springs)
To repeat, "values (something of a moveable feast for the Donald), work (silver spoon), family (third divorce), traditional values (treating women and "others" like second class citizens) and respect for law (tax dodge extraordinaire). You must be thinking of another Donald Trump.

Sorry, a digression. To be fair, the only thing Trump has done in a positive way is to highlight the fact the neither the GOP nor the Democratic party have addressed or even acknowledged that many of the policies pursued by Washington are inimical to many Middle and Lower Class citizens. The lack of jobs, greater wealth disparity, no sound energy or economic policy and a war footing for 15 years with the attendant loss of civil rights and damage to all involved is real for a large number of Americans. Trump has effectively tapped into that righteous anger. His sordid personal life and ignorant, mean spirited personal attacks on all sorts of people does not belie that fact.
ben (massachusetts)
Limited space so I'll limit the response to the case of women.

One could argue in generalities but take the case of Alicia Machado, since HC uses her as the #1 example of Trumps misogyny.

Machado won the Miss Universe contest and then put on a lot of weight. Trump called her Miss Piggy. But, that seems reasonable (if not nice) given that the title and all the accompanying benefits are based in large part on physical beauty. If you seek the title I feel you have an obligation from a business point of view to maintain your appearance. Calling her Miss Piggy even has a touch of humor in it. Yet he allowed her to retain title and obtain its’ benefits. He worked with her.

Beyond that Machado was alleged to have driven a get away vehicle for a murderer and threatened a judge who heard the case. As she says – she has her past.

I think Trump is overly hung up on appearances. However, I know lots of men AND women who are fixated on looks. It plays a large part in how all of us treat others. Just as some are focused on intelligence, or sports ability or some sort of talent. Discrimination by others is what drives us to do better and be the best we can. It hurts when we lose to be sure, but it is all part of the wondrous tapestry of life.

Sorry women hold a lot of power over Trump. He might resent that power, but then so do most of us; just as many women resent the power men hold. It’s not discrimination.
John Zinez (South Bronx)
When the dust settles after this farce of a national election, the Republican Party as it has been known will be no more. It will be split between the nationalist anti-immigrant/anti-trade base and the plutocrat, pro-immigrant donor class. The super rich and middle class donors have already begun jumping ship to the new pro business dems, so that leaves the 76% of the Republican Party that supports a wall against Mexico and an end to Muslim immigration, the only opposition to corporate democrats will be basically a neo-fascist party. This is an historic opportunity for all true socialists, anarchists, communists and social democrats to become the next mass political party of labor. It will be a historical tragedy if the fractured radical left cannot stop arguing over petty differences and provide a democratic alternative to fascism or capitalism.
AZPurdue (Phoenix)
Really shallow comments. You all said that the Republican Party was dwindling when Obama was elected to his first term. Yet the GOP took control of the House and Senate along with many state houses and gubernatorial slots.

That's why the Dem bench is so weak. You had one of the most flawed candidates possible in Hillary, who could hardly beat an independent socialist who flew under the radar for decades. And who is Tim Kaine?
Linda Kelley (Arlington, VA)
Young people don't want to stay in those isolated rural areas. Everyone who can get out will look for opportunities in urban areas. Depending on rural conservatives would seem like a losing bet for the Republican Party.
KC (Okla)
The GOP shouldn't win in the Midwest either. NAFTA was put together by Republicans to help Red states with exports. If you want to see how effective NAFTA has been simply Google: "Here's how Trumps trade war will hit your state". Now you can ask all your GOP elected officials why they would back a candidate that will annihilate billions of dollars of export business that millions of people rely on to make a living.
Do these U.S. Senators and Congressmen work for the people of their state or the billionaires? I think we all know that answer.
Out of the entire GOP delegation only one Senator suspended his party affiliation over Trump's NAFTA diatribes. A lifelong Republican Senator from Iowa. Google: "An Ex-Republican in Iowa Tells All". His reasons were justified.
So, Paul Ryan just voted for Trump. NAFTA trade loss to the state of Wisconsin you ask? Around 8 billion dollars. Who do you work for Mr. Ryan?
dyeus (.)
The world keeps changing, just look at the Bronx from the "dismal 1980 landscape" to today "where fancy coffee shops fuel concern about gentrification", but the Republican Party hasn't shifted and there lies the issue. We've heard the Republican mantras about "smaller this" and "lower that" since the 1980's, but no end game. Yes, efficient government would be a great platform for either party given the inaction seen from both the House and Senate over the past few years. Overreaching presidential Executive Orders? Probably, but someone has to govern the country if the Republican controlled House and Senate are unwilling or unable or both.
Randolph Mom (Randolph, NJ)
We need a law that stops revenue sharing to force these red states off the blue state dole
AZPurdue (Phoenix)
Fiscally successful blue states like Illinois?
Almighty Dollar (Michigan)
"Picture a Republican who runs on effective government instead of against government: a Michael Bloomberg type minus the nanny-state laws."

What Nanny state laws does the author refer to? Stopping teen smoking? Mitigating a massive obesity epidemic and its attendant amputations (which are killing NYC hospital budgets)? Reasonable laws to lower murders and suicides by guns? Or legislating against global warming, which may kill us all?

Republicans have no solutions to much of anything, which is why they need to disenfranchise blacks and people of color as much as possible.
nzierler (New Hartford)
Urban areas represent the true melting pot of this nation. Republicans are largely monolithic. Just look at the demographics. Republicans comprise mostly white, college-educated, economically thriving people. They choose to live in the suburbs because they are not interested in integrating into cities, which they view as having high crime and substandard schools. Now listen to Trump. His take on cities, which contain higher concentrations of minorities than suburbs, is that their inhabitants have no jobs, have terrible schools, thus, and are getting killed on a regular basis. Trump knows that issuing these broadsides does nothing else but clinch his hold on his base - suburban-dwelling Republicans.
Andrew G. Bjelland, Sr. (Salt Lake City, Utah)
With each election cycle, it becomes more and more evident that, for electoral success, the Republicans rely on gerrymandering, voter suppression, the donations of billionaire oligarchs, the loyalty of one-or-two issue white fundamentalist Christian voters, and the self-deluded and self-defeating support of uninformed white working-class voters. Reliance on such tactics and groups has kept the blood sloshing through this moribund party's veins.

Since the GOP's retention of power hinges on the foregoing, city folk, apart from billionaires, figure less and less in Republican electoral calculations.

The Trump fiasco, however, has revealed deep internal oppositions within the GOP: The establishment vs. the troglodyte base, Ryan vs. the Luddite Freedom Caucus, McConnell vs. the Tea Party's darling, Senator Cruz, Trump and his followers vs. factual reality.

Can this deeply fractured party possibly re-collect itself and continue to shamble on? After Trump will it ever again be unified enough to retain its status as one of our two major parties?
FunkyIrishman (Ireland)
Neither side should ever give up on anybody. The President leads all.

That being said, the press is at fault too; playing up ad nauseum '' battleground states'' while almost completely ignoring large swaths of the country. They then play up what a shocker it is when a red state has a chance to turn blue or vice versa. It is always a horse race and if it isn't, then the press will make it one artificially if it has to.

Remember, there are no blue states nor red states, just the United States.
Aaron (Ladera Ranch, CA)
Big cities have public sector unions and big city administration jobs- huge salaries with lifetime pensions. While these cities deteriorate Police, Fire, and City Officials, receive enormous paychecks and perks. Many retire after 20 years only to pop up in another city and start over again. Yes TWO tax payer funded pensions! Until this corruption stops, our major cities will continue to rot on the vine and it doesn't matter which party is in charge.
bluegal (Texas)
Our major cities are not "rotting on the vine" ...they are the economic drivers of our country. I suggest you look into what you are writing. You are letting everyone know what you think about cities, and you are letting everyone know that you don't really know what you are talking about.

The cities are what is driving all economic activity we have now. And most of them are thriving.
George (North Carolina)
Although the graphic suggests a regression line between density and voting patterns, I see no correlation coefficient mentioned, nor is the slope. Voting is more influenced today by education and income than density. We would certainly need a multivariate analysis here. If Hillary is indeed running on an anti-automobile platform, I don't know when she said that. Transit is very costly to operate and I think Uber can easily replace transit in most cities. Times change.
Brandon Herrmann (Dallas)
In a society with a weak social safety net (like ours), the primary focus for transit should be creating a low-cost, efficient system for those who cannot afford cars so they can improve their economic conditions. Economic mobility! Traffic alleviation should be secondary. How would Uber replace that? Cities function best as a close mix of all income levels and backgrounds, not playgrounds for the wealthy and upper middle class (Uber's core market). We have many families in our poorer neighborhood of Dallas who cannot afford basic internet, let alone smartphones and Uber.
fran soyer (ny)
I agree
ComSen (GA)
Uber is somewhat more expensive than a bus ride.
Brenda Wallace (MA)
It's the Republicans' plan to empty the cities, tear them down, and build domed enclaves for the rich, in the climate change age. It's why they keep saying it doesn't exist. They don't care. In their enclaves their middle class techie slaves will keep everything clean and pure, while living in the lowest levels. Their families won't be allowed in. But, comfort girls will be offered in exchange. The ones the rich white men have 'worn' out. These slaves, because of their closer contact with the rich will be kept separate from outsiders so they don't become contaminated. They will keep all the machines, run by computers, running. The other work will be taken care of by young 'others' trained to make sure their masters are happy.
Like most plans of this nature, eventually the rich will be abandoned by their slaves. Left to rot among failing machines. They will be the last total humans on the planet as the pollution will have caused serious gene pool malfunctions in everyone else, to the point they will be a newer species better adapted physically to the world the rich made. They will not help.
So, as the Republicans destroy the world, they will unknowingly open it up to a glorious future of changed humans, with high melanin skin, to hold off the radiation from the sun. Higher intelligence, bodies capable of handling higher temperatures with lower humidity due to lack of water. All because Republicans are afraid of 'others'. They will bring about a brown world. They can't livein
Dennisi (CT)
I'm pretty sure all the people tearing down and building gilded towers on the backs of the "techie slaves" are Democrats, not Republicans. How many Tech and VC Republicans do you see running around SF and NYC (excluding Peter Thiel).

Thats the myth the liberal elites want you to believe. That the GOP is behind the wealth gap, but its really those sitting atop the Blue leadership.
Gery Katona (San Diego)
Although how and where one was raised affects how they think, that is learned behavior and can be readily changed. Less recognized is the way people were born because it is sub-conscious, thus much harder to change. Republicans are more fearful of everything and everyone around them, thus tend to live in the suburbs and rural areas. Most people seem to get this wrong by postulating that is more conscious than it is.
Patrick (Long Island N.Y.)
I don't believe race is a determining factor in political inclinations, but more determined by age and city culture versus country culture, both of which I have lived.

Conservatives are generally older and more cynical while liberals are younger and more energetic, enjoying new things and experiences.

Additionally, a certain metamorphesis occurs through life in which young people are more liberally minded and have some conservative ideas and the makeup changes as people age. Older people lean Conservative and set in their ways shunning excitement for comfort.

But for everyone of any age, everyone has both liberal and conservative opinions depending on the issue. For someone to claim they are either is just plain wrong and if they think about it will find I'm right. You might be anti-abortion but that's not to say you don't want to make love.

There is little excitement in the country and the city life mostly looks radical, but some do want to venture into the cities to live the life of work and fun like young people as you know there in NYC which I call the wonderful city of "OZ". Then as years go, by the city wears on those of age, they desire the tranquility of the country and can move or vacation there in their older years.

Republicans have always portrayed themselves as conservatives while Democrats take pride in their predominately liberal views.

Clinton will win the cities and Trump will win the country people.

The future is for the liberals.
Montreal Moe (WestPark, Quebec)
Patrick,
I think I understand where you are coming from. Liberal or conservative is not an ideology it is a response to change , it speed to adapt. Liberals and conservatives in the same country or same religion share the same ideology. When there was a Soviet Union politburo liberals were communist and politburo conservatives were communist. Liberals like Gorbachev wanted change to adapt environment to be part of Soviet policy in fact he told the East German Chancellor to tear down this wall before Reagan said the phrase Conservative communists were very close in their beliefs on governance to our conservative fascists and anarchists. Conservatism is a response to change and you will find the same response to change regardless of ideology. If Reagan was a communist he would attack Gorbachev for suggesting tearing down the wall.
I would suggest that real conservatives whether communist, capitalist, or democrats share a common aversion to change. I would suggest Reagan , Romney and McCain would be conservatives if they served on the Soviet politburo.
Dennisi (CT)
Spoken like a true Long Islander who has probably never left the northeast. Go to a college in the south, pick an SEC school and tell me how many students blindly vote blue. I think you'll be disappointed to see that the younger generation is much more divided than the northeast liberal arts colleges would lead you to believe.
Montreal Moe (WestPark, Quebec)
Dennisi,
While I think you are right .about GOP support. I think the GOP is a radical right wing party and radical is the opposite of conservative. I think the the difference Patrick alludes to is not totally ideological. My fear is that there is no common language since William F Buckley Jr. called himself a conservative. He called himself a conservative and failed to qualify himself as a conservative fascist.
Fascism is not normally an American Ideology and it is precisely a perversion of language that has brought us to this perilous moment in our nation's history and we have no real liberals or conservatives to again take charge.
Liberals and conservatives engage in dialogue to solve problems and 1964 saw the end of conservatives and 1980 saw the end of liberalism until Obama. Let us hope that 2016 sees the beginning of a return of real American conservatism. I am at heart an American constitutional conservative and the likes of Cruz,Pence, Snyder, Walker, McConnell, Scalia and Chafetz make me ill.
Josh (Atlanta)
The population of cities generally is more educated and see through the current Republican malarkey. If they want voters go to places where people are uneducated, love guns, wars and don't have high paying jobs in industries that don't exist anymore. Just stick with voter intimidation, gerrymandering and nominating con-artist reality TV stars and see where that gets you.
Eric (New York)
After losing the presidency in 2012, Republicans did some deep soul-searching. They said they needed to reach out to minorities, to expand their tent, to not be the "party of stupid."

That didn't last long.

Instead they doubled-down on being the party of older, non-urban white men. Having gerrymandered their way to power in state houses, they thought the could win the presidency by getting more of the white vote.

The Republican party needs to die. It should be replaced with a moderate party that knows how to compromise and govern.
Kurfco (California)
The Democrats have become the party that hands out cotton candy and the GOP has been left to be the parent that waggles the finger and says it will rot teeth. Which marketing sells better?

Don't think that's true? Who is always for increasing entitlements, who for reducing them? Who is in favor of increasing student money, even making college free? Who is worried about the cost? Who wants to spend $billions on "infrastructure"? Who wanted to expand Medicaid? Where are the "sanctuary cities"? On and on and on.
Aaron (Ladera Ranch, CA)
After November 8, there will no longer be a Republican party- That I can tell you :0
AZPurdue (Phoenix)
As the GOP retains control of the House and Senate. And remind me again...how many Governors are Democrat?
thomas bishop (LA)
“This story could be written in one word,” Mr. Perlstein said of that historical arc. “The one word would be ‘race.’ ”

it's an old word, and an old story.

because of immigration, the US does not have the same people or 'races' that it did in 1966. time for a grand new party, and possibly a new electoral system, to minimize the retrograde expressions of blowhards and bigots.
trillo (Massachusetts)
The GOP gave up on minorities after GWB. Trump is a white nationalist, Duke is running for office, and the rural nativists and racists are controlling the party. We've become two nations again.
bluegal (Texas)
I agree with this, but I would posit that we have always been two nations. 150 years ago, the conservatives were in the south and midwest, and while you still find the majority of them there, some are found in all parts of the country. But that same push for nullification, race separatist, stubborn, double down on stupid, let us win or we take our ball and leave, attitude that divided us then is the same one that divides us now. We should have rooted out this sectionalism long, long ago, but we allowed it to fester and it rots this country from the inside out.

We need to see ourselves a one nation and one people, but there are those that do not want to go along with that, and it is harming us greatly.
A Goldstein (Portland)
Anyone who thinks being born with a silver spoon in mouth in Queens and living in a Manhattan skyscraper is a paradox vis a vis winning cities has an odd view of the world.

Did Mark Twain, Jack Benny, Tom Brokaw or Walt Disney fail to win the hearts of big city dwellers (all from small town, USA)?
Henry Hughes (Marblemount, Washington)
Interesting to see more history and details about this shift. Yet how strange that there's no mention of the bizarre gerrymandering that keeps Republicans in power in the House, along with Republican control of so many state governorships and legislatures.
Ted A (Seattle, WA)
I think this article was spot on a trend that will shape the coming decades in the United States and that trend is the urban-rural divide.
Thank you Upshot team! Your articles are so informative and offer such salient analysis of current events.
asd32 (CA)
People in cities tend to be better educated than people in rural areas. They don't fall as easily as rural people for the Republican message of fear and hate. And never will.
Montreal Moe (WestPark, Quebec)
Today as I read Friedman about STEM that America is in danger not because of STEM but because it had failed to teach its children their literature and their history. Maybe the cities are Democratic is that they do tell real history and great literature.
In 1964 the evolution of American society was at its zenith. Economic equality was at its peak. The streets belonged to the people and democracy seemed to have taken hold everywhere even in the South. America was truly the land of opportunity and my High School Class couldn't wait to move south and escape the stultifying ultra conservative Quebec. Boston beckoned New York put out its siren call. Los Angeles is a better home for a class reunion than Montreal. Chicago had the Rhythm and on weekends Buddy Guy , Junior Wells and a host of performers gave us a taste of urban America came to visit and tease us about what we were missing.
If Americans were taught history the GOP convention saw the GOP declare war on America and everything America stood for in the world.
When the Anarchist Karl Hess wrote " Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue." He was really writing about an end to America's evolutionary path and Death to the 17th century enlightenment.
When Barry Goldwater read those words it was the GOP's declaration of war on the America that evolved over 188 years.
The GOP and an Urban Renaissance are a volatile mixture.
Montreal Moe (WestPark, Quebec)
Only history will tell us which was the greater disaster for America the 1964 GOP convention after which we see as 52 year decline for the median income Americans (Pew) or 1980's GOP convention when the government of the people suddenly sees 204 years of evolutionary improvement becomes a nation of 204 years when all governance is poor governance or the 2016 GOP convention where the greatest nation that ever was explodes into the anarchy called for 52 years ago.
charlesbalpha (Atlanta)
1964 was a high-point because democracy was at his maximum then. Liberals had finally defeated the political machines in the South and it looked like citizens could vote and make it count.

Only eight years later, liberals started removing issues (starting with abortion) from democratic control because they didn't like the way voters were voting. So much for democracy.
E (Mountain West)
Let's not forget that the cities are full of atheists, and we hate the religious right.
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
Is this analysis even necessary? Even the Times has published several essays demonstrating that the House and statehouses may not go Democratic in a LONG time: Democrats congregate excessively in cities, where they possess FAR more electoral strength than they need to elect their own representatives; but are outnumbered by Republicans in suburbs, exurbs and rural districts. Democrats vitiate their voting strength by where they choose to live. Since there are more districts outside cities than cities comprise, it's not surprising that Republicans are eating Democrats' electoral lunches.

Why would Republicans concentrate on cities, where they know they operate at a severe disadvantage? Naturally, they focus on those geographies where they have a good chance of developing winning support.
Cjmesq0 (Bronx, NY)
Trump is doing what Reagan did, and he will win a substantial portion of the African-American vote.

Just watch.
me (here)
great humor. thanks.
OldEngineer (SE Michigan)
Well, at least the Democrats have been effective solving problems in Flint, Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and every other city where they dominate the polls.
As Stalin is said to have said: "It's not who ones that counts. It's who counts the votes that counts".
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
Sarcasm can be pretty effective, but I suspect that in this forum my "thumb" may be one of your few.
Montreal Moe (WestPark, Quebec)
Old
I lived in America's cities and saw no sign of the enlightened liberal oversight that made Toronto and Vancouver two of the top five cities in the world. In fact I saw no sign of either the liberal or conservative governance that made America the greatest country that ever was.
America is a land that has sold its soul for thirty pieces of silver. Neoliberals are not liberals and neocons are not conservatives.
It is time to change he creed of government of the people by the people and for the people to the more honest government of the buck, by the buck and for the buck.
If America's cities have failed it is failure by design and has nothing to do with ideology.
Nadia (Earth)
As opposed to Mike Pence's Austin, Indiana where bootstraps and Jesus conservatism wasn't the answer to save the citizens from opiate addiction and HIV? Good thing the federal government came in to help. And there are lots of Austin Indiana's out there. It's time you take a hard look at how GOP policies have left these communities adrift considering stones are being thrown from glasshouses and all.
David R (Kent, CT)
The most significant reason why people in urban areas tend to vote Democrat is because they value diversity and society; they see, every day, the point of living in a civilization with an open exchange of ideas and lots of choices; and they don’t expect everyone to share their point of view. Many people who live in rural communities, on the other hand, want to get as far from everyone else as possible. They don’t value diversity—they abhor it. Education and open discourse about other ways of life are regarded as threats. That’s what Sarah Palin was referring to when she said, “We believe that the best of America is in these small towns that we get to visit, and in these wonderful little pockets of what I call the real America.”
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
Boobooyaga-nonsense.

Democrats in congested cities vote Democratic because they need and want the services provided there, at bankrupting cost, by Democratically-dominated cities. Diversity? Are you kidding?
Nadia (Earth)
I keep hearing from these republicans about how democrats just want fee stuff. Where exactly is this freebie line they keep talking about. And it's complete lack of self awareness to refuse to acknowledge how much suburbs and rural communities rely upon cities for prosperity. David would be driving on dirt roads if cities like NYC didn't subsidize rural lifestyles.
NYHUGUENOT (Charlotte, NC)
The mass transit systems rob the fuel taxes paid by drivers. Not one city mass transit system is self supporting but depends on federal money to survive.
FDRT (NYC)
My one criticism of this article is that it doesn't mention the fact that for many yrs. there was gov't sanctioned discrimination regarding housing. All or mostly white suburbs didn't just "happen" there was systemic racism around such policies, which has and continues to played out in every aspect American life (i.e., schools). I don't blame the gov't per se, policy was defined and driven by the will of the majority of white people and how their vision of what they felt was right and good for the nation as they saw it.
European in NY (New York, ny)
The article says that when white neighborhoods become diverse, poverty spreads. I wish the authors explain why, and with honesty: Is it about lack of education and work ethic?

I was in the ER room of a major Manhattan hospital two weeks ago, with great pains. No offense, but it felt like I was in Zambia. There was no white medical staff, everyone was strolling about as if they were in a middle of a siesta, looking at patients as if they were furniture, and I was treated with special hostility and lack of compassion because I was guilty of being white. I was placed in a bed near a big trash bin, given water by mere couple of ounces, as a great favor by the black nurse who seemed to be annoyed each time I asked him something, waited for 6 hours to be seen by an Indian doctor for only 15 seconds when I practically self diagnosed myself, and I left in the morning with the same excruciating pain, no diagnosis, and a 12K hospital bill for all the tests. I was at the same hospital over 10 years ago, and since then it felt like the country has been going downhill. These people want all the "white privilege" without pulling the same effort and work ethic. Of course they will vote against any party that would demand self-reliance and higher standards!
Nadia (Earth)
Perhaps you were treated in the manner that you treated others particularly those who don't look like you.
jules (california)
Actually it sounds like a typical ER experience, and has nothing to do with immigrants or race. ERs are simply horribly run places, thanks to our twisted American healthcare system.
bluegal (Texas)
You were treated like ALL American are treated that have to go thru our twisted medical system. Why do you think it was so crowded? Not for emergencies, but for people who use the ER for treatment for minor illnesses. They do it because they have to be treated, by law, and because they do not have the money to see a regular doctor. And many doctors do not take medicaid, which leaves the hospitals as "treatment of last resort" for millions. This is not how it is supposed to work, and as a result the ER workers are overworked and the waits are too, too long.

So you got caught up in the system...welcome to the club. Instead of naval gazing and blaming people of color, why don't you start looking up and out and figuring out a way to change the system.
R padilla (Toronto)
The building of urban America is one of the great accomplishments of human civilization. The speed at which it developed was a testament to the opportunity available and desire of the people. The biggest, tallest, fastest, and best of everything was in the U.S. and everyone knew it.
How we allowed partisan infighting to destroy what were once universal national goals, is beyond me. I hope the millennial generation does different and better.
Bruce Rozenblit (Kansas City, MO)
When I talk to rural conservatives, the beef they have with the cities is always the same. Welfare. They are under the impression that the cities are jammed full of people that are mooching off of them by choosing not to work and living off of welfare.

The people they think of as being moochers look a bit different from them. Their skin is darker and some of them speak different languages. Now we all know that rural America has millions more welfare and various government aid recipients than the big cities do. But they look the same as them. Those folks are just down on their luck. They just need a break.

Truth is the big cities generate the cash that rural America needs to subsidize the infrastructure and services that the countryside needs. The real truth of the situation is that if the big cities were 99% populated with white, evangelical Christians whose ancestors came off of the Mayflower, this division between rural and big city would not exist. So far, the Republicans have successfully exploited this division. It will not last. The countryside is emptying out. The factories in small town America are closing. Farming is becoming more and more mechanized. Farms are getting larger and larger. The jobs are in the big cities. People of color are increasing in numbers. This GOP strategy has run its course and will soon work against them.
Human Being (Southern California)
In 2012, the average American taxpayer making $50,000/year paid only $36 toward the food stamps program.

Most people on welfare are hardworking, taxpaying citizens, or impoverished children, elderly, or disabled.

According to the right wing, the party most opposed to welfare programs, we're supposed to be a Christian nation right? Wait...
kevin hertzog (new york city)
Music to my ears...
Jonathan Baker (NYC)
Cities are routinely the home of multiple universities where anti-science agendas do not find acceptance. They are also focal points of businesses with international ties which in turns parlays into more cosmopolitan interactions and outlook.

And it is not just that cities have a higher concentration of minority populations, but that co-habitation differing populations within cities tempers loud prejudices in favor of quiet tolerance - it is not smart or profitable to alienate customers who are different from ourselves.

Every day as I walk down my block in the middle of NYC I hear spoken from passing pedestrians, English, Russian, French, Hebrew, Arabic, German Mandarin, and so forth. This is not an experience I would expect in a small town in Kansas.

People tend to fear people they do not know, and there is an awful lot that rural conservatives do not know.
Mark R. (Rockville, MD)
The high correlation between population density and party also is a reason that Democrats have so much of their Congressional vote wasted in districts where their candidate wins with 70% to 80% of the vote. As a result, Republicans win a much higher percentage of Congressional seats than they do of the total vote for members of Congress.

Some partisan over-concentration is due to gerrymandering. But around NYC, LA, and a few other very large urban areas it has become nearly impossible to design a competitive Congressional district.

While it is less fair, our democracy can probably survive one party having an accidental (not "rigged") geographic advantage---the process matters more than the equilibration of votes. But the large number of uncompetitive districts in both rural and urban areas leads all voters to feel disconnected from the process. Even when their Congressman is from their own party, they may not feel represented.

If the correlation between partisanship and population density becomes a long-term reality, this becomes an additional argument for alternate methods of electing House members, such as proportional representation within multi-member districts. While people would lose their connection with a single Congressman for their district, in other ways they may feel far more represented.
A Goldstein (Portland)
Cities comprise most of the best and some of the worst aspects of our society. Innovation, with its successes and failures, does not come from the heartland nearly as often as it does from large urban centers. Republican rhetoric reveals itself as the party seeking to stifle or reverse (aka, Make America Great Again) innovation.

Why is there so little said by the GOP about the non-sectarian and inclusive family values and other traditional principles the party use to emphasize? In this way, the nation's heartland has had much to offer. But now there is misguided populism based on lies, reality distortion and greed. One only has to pay real attention to what the GOP's standard bearer is saying and attracting to its base to know how twisted the party has become.
Diane L. (Los Angeles, CA)
I would love to picture a government that puts its country before partisanship on all levels. It is disheartening to hear the vitriol, accusations and negativity that comes from both sides. Imagine working together to strategize how we can best help our inner cities as well as those who cannot afford an education or health care. Imagine working on solutions instead of attacks. Imagine engaged politicians who get elected and re-elected based on the merits of their integrity and accomplishments.
izzy607 (Portland.OR)
We have had an engaged, principled and civil President who has attempted to work with Republicans many for eight years. The Republicans vowed to make him e a one term president before he was even inaugurated in 2008 (even as the worse financial disaster since the Great Depression was playing out), and they have done nothing but obstruct everything he has tired to do. Enough with this "both sides" claptrap.
William Michael Johnson (Narberth, PA)
Perhaps what is missing here is an understanding of growth in each county between 1952 and today. I suspect that as counties became denser and Democratic, they also have become economically more powerful. The growing concentration of wealth and opportunity in dense counties may tell us a lot about how counties will tend to vote in the coming week.
omg (meh)
And where the future flight of companies and white people will happen.
André Bondi (New Jersey)
It is worth noting that the horizontal scale in the two cluster plots is logarithmic. This means that the tendency would look even more pronounced with a linear horizontal scale, because the *rate* of increase in the percent of Democratic voters rises as the population density increases. That means that a small increase in an already densely populated area will cause a larger increase in Democratic voting.
Thomas Zaslavsky (Binghamton, N.Y.)
So the Republican party is doomed in the long run. That's been true for at least 20 years, and it explains why they control only 33 states, the House, and the Senate.

But the article misses one little point. When the GOP finally does decide it needs urban votes, it will find deceptive propaganda that attracts them.

The essential error in the article is failing to recognize that the GOP has only one principle, which is to feed money and power to the very rich. Everything else is window dressing. When the GOP elite decides it needs urban votes it will start the same kind of brainwashing campaign for them that it has carried out against them, and the public will not remember a thing.
AlexV (Everywhere)
They control more than a few of those 33 states because of gerrymandering, which makes it practically impossible to vote them out. Their secondary function, along with the one you mentioned, is to feed money and power to themselves – and hold onto it (cf. their views on taxes).
NYHUGUENOT (Charlotte, NC)
The Democrats kept control of North Carolina for 144 years using gerrymandering. But it's OK to complain if the Republicans do it.
Hypocrites.
Since replacing the Democrats we've paid off loans from the federal government for unemployment after the Democrats stopped collecting it and we've rebuilt our "rainy day" fund. We've reduced our income tax with the eventual elimination of it planned.
It isn't just gerrymandering that keeps Republicans in power here.
We favor consumption taxes.
Kaleberg (port angeles, wa)
I can't believe the comments below that equate rural living with self-reliance. I live in the back-of-beyond: the remote Olympic Peninsula of Washington State. Without huge sums of money from the state and federal government, our population would be living in 18th century squalor. Olympic Medical Center, funded by state grants for rural hospitals, federal subsidies for non-profits, Medicare, Medicaid, and subsidized Obamacare, is not just our medical care provider; it's our largest employer. The state and the feds built and maintain the ferries, the highways, and the Hood Canal Bridge that connect the peninsula to the mainland and to Victoria, British Columbia. Olympic National Park, owned by the people of the United States, brings in the tourist dollars that feed, clothe, and house a large segment of our population. The Coast Guard base brings in yet more money, and the men and women stationed there save the lives of our fishermen every year. The Border Patrol agents fight a serious problem with human trafficking along the Lost Coast. Our older residents rely heavily on Social Security.

If it weren't for the taxpayers of Washington State, and the rest of our nation, my town would starve.
Ryan Bingham (Up there)
People in town aren't growing or raising their own food. But I see your point too. Neither can really survive without the other.
Terry Dailey (Mays Landing nJ)
Yes, but many of those in the "heartland" who receive the most in federal benefits don't recognize that. It is heartening that you do.
Kurfco (California)
The other way to look at this is that without the government support, people might move to where they could actually live without the support. Well meaning programs allow people to park all over this country eking out a satisfactory but marginal living.
Dave T. (Cascadia)
"...and central cities that Republicans relinquished are now the country’s economic engines."

It bears repeating.

And makes me wonder why North Carolina is trying to strangle Charlotte and Raleigh with HB2. Together, those two cities produce more than 1/2 of North Carolina's GDP.
AB (Kansas)
jealousy? hatred of the city-slickers?
Walker77 (Berkeley, Ca.)
It's absolutely true that Democrats get a lot more support in the core cities than Republicans. What's less well appreciated is that the inner suburbs are also becoming Democratic. These are the older, denser, more racially mixed suburban areas that are along or near the city line. I don't think there's a single Republican member of Congress from Los Angeles County. At the Presidential level, increasingly diverse Orange County California may go for Clinton in this election. I don't see this dynamic changing anytime soon.
Ego Nemo (Not far from here)
Twenty-four hundred years ago Pericles said "all the good things from all over the world flow in to" the city.

One hundred twenty-years ago, Katharine Lee Bates wrote that America's "alabaster cities gleam, undimmed by human tears!"

America's cities are rich, vibrant, imperfect, shabby, gleaming -- and they attract the best people from ever part of humanity everywhere in the world. Not only does every good human want to be an American, they want to live in American city.

Those who reject the goodness of American cities, that Pericles and Bates would agree today has actually never been greater, must be those unfortunate Americans who live in miserable mental prisons of their own despair. They given up on hope, and now they wish, through their aspiring tyrant Trump to take out frustrations of their shattered dreams on their fellow Americans, most of whom live in American's alabaster cities.

It is the duty of urban Americans to save their rural neighbors from their self-inflicted angry hopelessness.
OldEngineer (SE Michigan)
Oh, please. We in flyover country provide the food, fiber, fuel, and manufactured goods you city folk enjoy even as you dis us without a scintilla of understanding. How about some of that reputed Democrat empathy, at least, if you can't summon up the intellectual curiosity to grasp or situation?
AlexV (Everywhere)
Your post exemplifies an unfortunate type of stereotyping that only urban liberals could engage in. Not everyone who lives outside the city limits is a miserable, angry, and hopeless Republican – and not everyone who lives within the city limits is a poetry-quoting Democrat with a "duty" to liberate the unwashed masses from their quiet rural lifestyles.
bluegal (Texas)
Sorry, we don't "grasp" your situation. The plant has closed, the storefronts are all boarded up, and yet you stay. In a hopeless place. And many of you are drugging and drinking yourselves to death. Middle age whites are dying at young ages, mostly from drugs. Yet you sit out there and condemn the "welfare and drugs and violence" in the cities, acting like you don't suffer from these very same problems. And if you do look at your problems you want everyone to "sympathize" at the poor whites in the country who have lost their way.

If you want sympathy and help, you have to ask, and you have to recognize that we are ALL in this country together and stop working to implement policies that hurt those of us that don't live in rural areas. Policies like no background checks for gun buyers hurt us in the city, and leads to a higher murder rate and some of that violence you decry. Gerrymandering gives you way too much power for the population that you are representative of...recognize that and start working for policies that actually benefit the most of us, and stop working for policies that benefit only a few.

And how about a little recognition that without the cities and their large economic engines, your community would not be able to put in that new library or park or heck, even pave your roads. Would be much nicer than hearing you belittle our "New York city values".
Debbie (Ohio)
As seen in this election the Republican party is divided within itself. You have the conservatives and the extremists i.e the Freedom Caucus and Tea Party. They are never going to unite. The so-called conservatives cater to special interests and the extremists hate everything and everybody.
Should Hillary win and the Republicans maintain control of Congress we are in for another 4 years of deadlock. McCain and another GOP candidate have already stated that they will block any Supreme Court candidate should Hillary win. This party will never learn. There's nothing to attract urbanites or minorities to it.
Sue (Cleveland)
I have lived in rural and urban areas and I do think population density has something to with politics. If you live in a rural area you rely less on government services. Chances are you arrange and pay for your own garbage pick-up. You probably have a septic tank for which your are responsible for maintaining (no government sewage systems). You get your water from a well on your property. (No government water system). You don't have government controlled sidewalks or city streets. You maintain your own driveway. You don't rely on beat cops and may rarely see a sheriff's deputy. You may own a gun for home protection because of the dearth of law enforcement. If you have a lot of fall leaves. No sticks to dispose of you may just burn them. Now obviously people in rural areas rely on the big federal programs like everyone else, defense, Medicare etc. but for many bread and butter issues they are self-reliant.
Patrick (Tampa)
What services they do have are likely heavily subsidized by urban taxpayers in their states. But they are not likely to think about that at all and may believe the opposite is true. Just look at NYS - all the rural yokels upstate (where I am originally from) love to complain about NYC and pretend that they somehow support the city. Without that city, they would be in even worse shape than they already are, being "the Mississippi of the Northeast."
alex (new york ny)
But rural dwellers rely on the federal post office, subsidized health care facilities, farm subsidies, roads and bridges paved and maintained by state funds...I could go on.
Megan (Baltimore)
If you live in a rural area in my state, you also pay a lot less for government services than city folks do. Urban people also often rely on themselves for things the city is supposed to provide. I shovel my street, pick up trash in the parks and along my main streets, and intervene when the youth get out of hand rather than calling the police. I do this because my city takes forever to plow side streets, never cleans up the parks, and because the police either don't respond, or I'm afraid they'll shoot some kid. I own a gun, but I confess I've only shot it out in the country, and I probably wouldn't use it for home protection. Just pointing out, again, that we're not demographics, we're all individuals. On a lighter note, Go Indians! (I see you are from Cleveland, and they are the team I'm rooting for this World Series.)
Geoff (Des Plaines, IL)
Knowing some facts about the history of Chicago voting might help your article. Before 1966 most white voters in the city of Chicago were almost evenly split between the parties. Black voters were the difference in re-electing Mayor Richard J. Daley in 1963. Most white voters in 1963, upset by a property tax increase, voted for the Republican candidate, Ben Adamoski, who the Democratic Machine had 'counted out' in the 1960 State's Attorney's race. The white neighborhoods most 'threatened' by integration in the mid-60's were lower income and Democratic and stayed that way. In 1968, Nixon did not improve upon his 1960 vote in white Chicago wards. Overall, Nixon's vote in Chicago in fell off by 6%. Only in a few heavily, mostly Irish Catholic wards (JFK '60), did he do better.
spike (NYC)
I read over and over again in these comments the myth of how "the cities are failing because of years of rule by democrats". Yes the cities have problems, yes, years of democratic programs haven't eliminated poverty, yes, the schools still have problems, but compared to the republican lead cesspools of the rural areas- eg. Appalachia, most of the south, Kansas, I'll take the cities in the Democratically lead states over any rural area in a Republican lead state. NYC, Los Angeles, SF, Boston, Seattle, Portland are all booming, and to quote Reagan, " a rising tide lifts all boats". Republicans have totally failed the poor in rural areas. The oil states were doing ok (Texas, Wyoming, OK), but the down turn in oil prices is returning those rural areas to the dirt poor places they have been for a long time.
Len (Manhattan)
From 1993 - 2013 New York City revived and flourished and became the safest large city in America without having Democratic party politician as mayor. Q for you how do things here in NYC compare today to how they were in the last year of the Dinkins administration.
AlexV (Everywhere)
Many rural areas of NYC, CA, MA, and WA can be quite nice, and also very liberal. Let's give up the stereotypes already. Plenty of large American cities (outside of a few elitist enclaves in the Northeast) have plenty of residents that conform to stereotypes of rural lifestyles (big pickup trucks, gun owner, etc). They aren't living downtown but they are urban dwellers nonetheless.
Nadia (Earth)
Actually to answer Len's question, crime rates began to fall during Dinkins administration. And NYC's rates reflect that of falling rates across the country.
Cord Royal (California)
The parties have not "sorted themselves ".

The Republican Party has made a concerted effort over the last 30 years to cultivate an anti-government, anti-intellectual base because it suited the purposes of their anti-regulatory donors.

Their chickens have come home to roost.
Ego Nemo (Not far from here)
It's a rare data story that tell us something of our souls.

The political US parties have always been useful for sorting -- sorting supporters of a federal constitution from those wary of it, sorting Eastern interests from Western, sorting Lender from Borrower, and Slave Power from Free Soiler.

Now it has come to this -- and we must be frank so the American soul might be cleansed and renewed -- the parties today sort Racist from Anti-Racist. The racists have sorted into the Republican Party.

(The future writers of the last book ever written on US history will have something to say of the sick irony of that.)

Not every Republican today is a racist. Some of my best friends are Republicans. But they are 'non-racists.' And these non-racists are caught in the middle because they rank trifling concerns (tax rates, clique cohesion, critiques of private consensual sexual conduct) above anti-racism and justice.

No more. A time of choosing has indeed arrived -- and there is no hiding place left in our political parties for salt-of-the-earth, we're-not-bothering-anybody non-racists.

They must decide whether they are indeed racists or anti-racists. Trump has mashed with a short finger the button to blow up the middle ground between those poles. There is no place left for the non-racist to stand.

If one has a normally formed conscience, the non-racist must choose the anti-racist party, if only because it represents the best chance right now to save our great nation from tyranny.
Miguel (Minneapolis)
"Some of my best friends are Republicans"

This is satire, right? Too many of us grew up hearing that phrase, only with 'blacks' attached at the end. No matter what the end target group is, it always rings as the argument of someone who lacks one on its own merits, as if knowing people with different experiences or views means you can speak for them.

Speaking for myself, and my experiences of living in 3 major cities that traditionally vote Democrat, and having voted Democrat in every major election until recently, I take serious issue with your premise.

I have spent a considerable amount of time living, working and volunteering in inner cities that receive continuous, growing amounts of government and foundation dollars to 'solve' the issues affecting minority communities. These dollars are usually traced to Democrats with good intentions, and/or a desire to win votes. Yet, the problems have gotten measurably worse each decade since the 70s. This is about as factual as facts come. Maybe the Democrats should concede failure in 'society fixing', and embrace solutions that involve getting the white Democrat suburbanites off their high horses in their Camelot Communities and actually re-zoning and re-imagining our major metro areas so that true equality in education, housing, health care access, job access, and open transit infrastructure can occur.

Until that time arrives, it's advisable to stop throwing stones on matters of race.
Joe Brown (New York)
The question, though, is what Republicans would lose if they tried.

Answer: the primary
Charles (Clifton, NJ)
Very, very fine analysis. It brings back some history. The riots of the '60's are something we don't talk much about. In New Jersey, they spread across the state from Newark, It was a bad time.

This wasn't Martin Luther King with rational demands, this was uncontrolled destruction. Seeing no good end, whites fled. The riots helped no one. So there is baggage on the Democratic side, too.

This split harms both parties. Either you're a small town kind of person or a big-city person. In general, cities, especially NYC and Chicago, have socially liberal cultures, out of necessity, that offend the small-town dwellers in the Heartland. The reality, and people's needs, are far more complex than that view.

And there is simmering resentment in the Heartland. Their kids are moving to the coasts. Evidently that swinging liberal culture doesn't bother their kids. It can be fun, and you can get good food. Especially if you can get a job.

Badger and Bui tell us that it could be very dangerous for Republicans to purge their voting lists from people in our cultural centers. But those like Trump, Palin and Coulter don't get their recognition from there. So the Republican Party has to deal with the Right Wing media marketing forces that have shaped its views.
d. lawton (Florida)
Typical coastal snobbishness and elitism. Also, very flawed, because I don't know why anyone would willingly live in any of the dirty, crowded, crime ridden and expensive cities in this county, if they could live near natural beauty and in a real community.
James (Manhattan)
D. Lawton,
The most expensive real estate in the country are in cities. So yes, they're considered more desirable.
Follanger (Pennsylvania)
"I don't know why anyone would willingly live in any of the dirty, crowded, crime ridden and expensive cities in this county,"

Yep, you have to wonder about all those confused millennials flocking into these nasty, so nasty, cities in this country. I'll take the natural beauty, and some oxytocin, any day.
Dennis (CT)
Why would the GOP lower themselves to pandering to inner city minorities just to break their promises as the Dems do? The Dems are all talk. They've done nothing to improve the lives of minorities in the inner cities, although they've controlled those cities for decades. NY and SF are seeing success due to the high paying tech and financial sectors, but for those living in the Bronx and outer sections of Queens and Brooklyn, please explain to me what the Dems have done that's so great that you continually and blinding vote Blue.
AO (JC NJ)
You present nonsense defending the party of the 1% as to Queens and Brooklyn - it took a Democrat to officially end stop and frisk for the crime of being a minority - something white people will never understand.
Lau (Penang, Malaysia)
Your argument is based on the fallacy that every urban area is by default "inner city", and that everyone vote FOR what the political party promise to deliver, and that cities are al just minorities. None of these is true. The tendency to vote democratic is proportional to population density. As soon as a area is populated enough, it turns blue. This is why Northern Virginia, which is a huge population center devoid of a real city (let alone inner city), has turned the state blue. Many in the urban area find the Republican platform off-putting. Religious rights (city dwellers have higher than average proportion of athesists and LGBT), gun rights (most city dwellers do no like guns), global warming denial (most urban dwellers care deeply about carbon tax and public transport), white purity (dense population by default increases diversity). There is hardly anything on the Republican platform that appeals to urban voters. We don't blindly vote blue, we just can smell red for far away, and at this point it continues to stink. More importantly, we are not a monolithic group called "inner city minorities".
CTJames 3 (New Orleans,La.)
"Why would the GOP lower themselves to pandering to inner city minorities jus"
Considering the presidential nominee this year, they couldn't go any lower.
Socrates (Downtown Verona, NJ)
"Electoral necessity will demand at least a new round of Republican soul searching."

It's hard to search your 'soul' when you don't have one.

The Republican Party will always be welcome at the few White Wonder Bread factories in America churning out nutritional poison, bleached reality and the glory of yesteryear.
M (Levy)
It's hard to motivate an electorate to vote when they don't feel they have a choice. The lease you could do is be open to the Republicans having a soul. You never know how a party will evolve across decades. Democrats are at their peak now, while Republicans remain stuck in a nadir, but the law of averages suggests a switch has to occur again. Furthermore, Democrats don't like Hillary enough to re-elect her, and Republicans will have a more compelling candidate next time. Mark my words: Hillary will be a one-term president followed in office by a Republican who won't be as bad as you'd expect.
IPI (SLC)
Republicans made the inner cities livable again, and it is time for Democrats to take advantage of that. If the more recent trends continue, however, inner city homicides and violent crime will soar again and everything will go back to "normal".
Nadia (Earth)
Lol, in what universe do you live? Go see Austin Indiana to see how livable GOP policies are.
Victoria Harmon (New York City)
As more and more cities adapt to Millennials, who don't want to own cars, can't afford homes, and don't even want to own furniture, this picture will only get worse for Republicans. Cities are more livable, if more expensive, than ever, but their pull is only getting more attractive to those who want higher quality of life and shorter commutes.
Dennis (CT)
Uh oh, sounds like you have a predicament - white Millennials coming to the cities, gentrifying historical black districts while at the same we continue to import untold numbers of immigrants intio inner city enclaves. We'll soon have 3 key segments of Democratic votes competing against eachother for limited resources. I'm eager to see how this works out.
alex (new york ny)
Dennis I think you are making assumptions about race - why do you assume the millenials are all white?
What makes you think that the resources will be limited as you say?
Sounds like you are expecting, or wishing, for failure.
Young people in cities add much more positive qualities than you are willing to imagine.
NYHUGUENOT (Charlotte, NC)
Come to Charlotte and you can see that now.
Three entire sections of the city are now totally Hispanic while in the areas Blacks have lived for generations they are being forced out to build the 25,000 apartments being built for the Yuppies coming in to work at the two banks. My once rural neighborhood became a suburb years ago and we are now being turned into the areas the Blacks are being pushed into. The rest of us are moving out to the coast. I now own an ocean front house in Carteret County near Camp Lejeune and a water front lot off the Chesapeake in Virginia. I'll be gone before they can ruin these neighborhoods. Both counties are about 70% Republican.
Law Feminist (Manhattan)
Density means accepting your neighbors enough to live in tolerant proximity. If the last eight (or really, 30) years have taught us anything, the Republican philosophy is to declare anyone who is not white, straight, Christian, and conservative as inherently illegitimate (if not for their own procreative purposes, they would probably include "male" in that list as well). "I'm sure some of them are good people," but they give the impression that they prefer not to let anyone unlike them know it.
Thomas Zaslavsky (Binghamton, N.Y.)
Law Feminist: The destruction of Clinton signs in Republican areas supports this analysis.
Dennis (CT)
The Democrat philosophy is to declare any white male as racist, sexist and homophobic. Please don't act like Democrats are blameless in our current situation.
Terry Dailey (Mays Landing nJ)
Well put.
JABarry (Maryland)
Republicans believe cities have too many minorities; they don't expect minorities in cities to vote (especially when they have plans to suppress their voting); they couldn't care less about cities because they couldn't care less about minorities.

If you are not a white Christian, Republicans believe you are not wholly American and therefore don't belong here.
74Patriot1776 (Wisconsin)
"But this history is also about the physical realignment of voters, as the rise of suburbia enabled Democrats and Republicans to move, literally, farther apart."

Good. The farther Democrats and Republicans live from each other the better. Let both govern and have whatever priorities they choose within the boundaries of the federal and state constitutions without obstruction and interference from the other side. It makes for a much more peaceful and happy existence. Strengthen state and local control. Eliminate all attempts by the federal government to engage in areas that aren't explicitly authorized by the constitution. No social engineering. People will vote with their feet where they want to live and at the ballot box accordingly based on which side has the best outcomes through their policies.
Lara (Massachusetts)
I'm okay with that, Mr. 74Patriot1776, if and when the Red States stop hogging far more in federal tax money than they put in, while complaining about the federal government and screaming for their "states' rights." The truth is that the states complaining the loudest about federal power are the poorest and least educated: arguably the most in need of extra federal money. However, I'm getting sick of their lack of gratitude. Do you mind if we taxpayers who appreciate federal government start using our excess tax monies exclusively in states that vote Democrat?
Ed (Old Field, NY)
Unfortunately, the lesson Republicans drew was that these appeals fell on deaf ears, and they could *never* win over urban voters: they gave up. Democrats did something similar with rural voters. When politicians don’t think it’s worth the effort, then politics becomes constant battle among established, unchanging, unchangeable blocs of voters. As it happens, Trump is running as an effective manager minus the nanny-state laws; a school-choice advocate, but not a culture warrior; and someone who talks about crime…okay, maybe not without caricature, but two and a half out of three ain’t bad.
Micah (Richland, WA)
If you promise to appoint another Scalia, you are a culture warrior.
Jack (Mammoth Lakes)
This article helps explain the conundrum of desperately poor rural voters who are staunchly Republican and anti-government and millionaires living in Manhattan co-ops who have evolved elaborate rules for living densely and who vote Democratic. Regardless of wealth, if you live in a densely populated area, you find all manner of good flows from governmental intervention and control. Conversely, if your neighbors are several hectares away, you can develop an Emersonian temperament of rabid self-reliance.
izzy607 (Portland.OR)
Except in reality, rural voters are more dependent on government programs than urban dwellers. WIthout farm subsidies, federally funded highways, dams and other infrastructure, use of public lands for fees far below market rates, etc., much of rural America, especially in the West, could never be profitably farmed, mined, etc.
John LeBaron (MA)
Richard Nixon, America salutes and thanks you! Donald Trump is your heir.

www.endthemadnessnow.org
william (boston)
That's an embarrassment to Nixon.

For all his many faults, Nixon was a master of foreign policy.
ed connor (camp springs, md)
William:
Tell the 30,000 men who died needlessly in Viet Nam during Nixon's presidency that he was "a master of foreign policy."
Eduardo B (Los Angeles)
With ~80 percent of population living in ~125 metropolitan markets, the Republican party continues to cater to the far-right base, which mostly does not live in these markets. How is that a strategy? They keep fielding candidates who cannot win presidential elections, and even allowed Trump to represent the party. If he wasn't running against Clinton, he'd be 20+ points behind on a good day.

Anyone remember the 2013 Republican consultants-written report after Mitt Romney lost in 2012? It noted that until the party became more diverse and the leadership stopped talking to itself, winning presidential elections would only become more difficult. And then in 2015 an even larger clown car rolled out for the primaries. Party leadership isn't leading.

Eclectic Pragmatist — http://eclectic-pragmatist.tumblr.com/
Eclectic Pragmatist — https://medium.com/eclectic-pragmatism
Olivia LaRosa (San Francisco)
I live in Oakland. There are lots of problems here, mainly caused by Republican de-funding of cities and war on unions. Republicans have decimated union membership by murder, mayhem, retaliation, intimidation and buying business-friendly legislatures. Still losing cities because people in cities are around others not quite like them, but who have similar hopes and dreams. Cities are the engines of our economy. Cities are the crucible of creativity. Want to rejuvenate our economic prospects? Restore our cities under honest and fair governing principles.
william (boston)
Oakland is a Democratic stronghold in the Democratically controlled state of California. Its problems were entirely created by Democrats.
AZPurdue (Phoenix)
Too funny. Does the GOP have any strongholds left in California? Maybe Orange County. Pretty sure San Diego is gone too. Sorry Olivia. California's problems have the Dems' fingerprints all over it.

Now let's talk about two Democrat successes...Chicago and Detroit.
Ira W (Beacon Hill, Boston)
Half a century after President Lyndon Johnson declared a war on poverty, the number of Americans living in slums is raising at an extraordinary pace.
The number of Americans living in high-poverty areas—defined as census tracts where 40 percent or more of families have income levels below the federal poverty threshold— more than doubled between 1994 and 2014, to 20.7 million, from 9.5 million, according to an analysis of census data. That’s the highest number of Americans living in high-poverty neighborhoods ever recorded.
There is almost weekly gun violence in Boston for years.
I think the GOP believes the urban problems in US is entirely hopeless, regrettably, they probably right.
Bill Harshaw (Reston, VA)
There's a danger here of perpetuating old stereotypes of urban centers. (See Alice's Restaurant below.) Looking at the DC area, given the gentrification of central DC and the dominance of Democrats in Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince Georges counties, the picture is complex. As Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince Georges became more dense, they became more Democratic, and probably more "urban" in many respects.
ed connor (camp springs, md)
The counties bordering the District of Columbia are democratic because that is where their bread is buttered.
They are, in George Will's words, "dormitories of the federal government."
Alice's Restaurant (PB San Diego)
The inner-cities, filled with poverty, violence, and crime, have become since Eisenhower's day the Calais refugee camps of the American dream.

Fortunately, they are useful for the DNC Politburo--they harvest their votes every four years, cynically telling them the same story they did four years before--if not for the Republicans and all those "angry white men".

But what else can be said or done without massive destruction and renewal, and where will all that money come from, save, of course, canceling corporate public works projects like the billions and billions of dollars F-35 program, which, coincidently, both parties in Congress favor?
Law Feminist (Manhattan)
Right, U.S. cities are where "inner city poverty" is defined as condos costing millions of dollars and international corporations vying to attract top talent.
Lorem Ipsum (DFW, TX)
"Inner cities"? Isn't that RealAmericans derisively call "PC?"

Your manly Trump would know what to call them. Be bold. Be him. You know you want to.
oggibo (Hollywood)
Seems you haven't been to Oakland, Chicago, or Detroit recently--what the article was about, right? Nice fantasy, though. Need to send your message of wealth to where it is needed--desperate inner-cities.
Fred (Baltimore)
There should be urban rural unity, instead of the created divisions. Rural areas struggle even more in many cases with the issues of poverty, unemployment, addiction, and education that urban areas struggle with, but the dispersal makes the problems harder to see and harder to solve.
Joe Brown (New York)
But Fred, how can you unite with someone or some people whom you have been calling illegitimate for so many years? I think it will be up to urbanized people to make america better.
ed connor (camp springs, md)
Joe, are you referring to the "basket of deploreables?"
MRP (Houston, Tx)
You'd think that voters who keep electing Democrats in so many cities would have connected that to the fact that crime and poverty remain intractable, their schools stink, their infrastructure is decaying, their services have declined, their taxes have increased and that office holders take their votes for granted, feather their nests, protect their donors and still manage to luxuriate in quasi-religious, more-virtuous-than-thou self-regard.

You'd be wrong.
Richard (Madison)
Maybe if Houston weren't in Texas it wouldn't suffer from all these horrors.
Paul Kolodner (Hoboken)
Crime rates have been dropping everywhere for decades. Republicans keep claiming otherwise, because irrational fear gets them votes. We have seen two recent reports about drastic reductions in the rate of poverty, too. The common conservative reaction to those was that it can't be true, because my brother-in-law lives in a run-down house. I could go on and on about the other misrepresentations in your post, but why bother? Go on, cast a disgruntled vote for Trump, and try to keep cool in Texas while the climate-change hoax fries your hat off.
william (boston)
"Crime rates have been dropping everywhere for decades."

Chicago didn't get the memo.
charlesbalpha (Atlanta)
So now that the Times has decided that the real divide is urban-rural, is it going to stop the silly talk about "red" and "blue" states? A "blue" state is one with a large urban population, a "red" state isn't. Call things by their right names.
NYC Nomad (NYC)
In addition to population density, cities represent another challenge to Republican tactics: higher educational attainment and diversity.

A better educated, socially varied electorate more readily recognizes and rejects the falsely forced choices that the GOP flogs, such as:
-Honoring marriage vs gay marriage
-Protecting choice vs respecting human life
-Law and order vs racial and ethnic tolerance

That said, politicos might consider the demographic shift from suburbs back to cities. This influx makes cities wealthier, but whiter -- as gentrification drives people of color toward suburbs, dispersing their political voice.

Will this mean that cities become more accessible to Republicans and less dense areas more accessible to Democrats? Both parties will need to evolve as cities, and America as a whole, evolves.
Megan (<br/>)
I love the city I've always lived in, but I work on a farm and I've always wanted to own land. The urban/rural divide in politics and in pop culture both amuses and saddens me. This way of neatly categorizing people is useful to politicians, but it's alienating and divisive. We're better than this.
L M D'Angelo (Westen NY)
I agree. With so much analyzing of demographics it is easy to pigeonhole people. It really does not accomplish much else.
Ellen Liversidge (San Diego CA)
Megan, thank you for your remarks. Yes, slicing and dicing people by category only perpetuates what divides. We need to work on what unites.
Joseph Huben (Upstate NY)
Why bother. Black Americans and Hispanic Americans and poor whites outside of the South are on to the Republican agenda: preserving white privilege, lower taxes on the rich whites, and demonize center city inhabitants. Republicans elected Trump. Hatred and fear are their tools. Lies alienating whites from those from the center city, resentment of social safety net falsely ascribed to Blacks are the currency of the Republican Party.
Remember, Reagan told white Americans that "Government is the Problem" on the day he became president. A singular renunciation of democracy.
Lorem Ipsum (DFW, TX)
He also told his surgeons, "I hope you're all Republicans."

Why? Because a Democratic surgeon would let him die on the freekin table?

I don't fault Reagan for saying what he did in the heat of the moment. But repeating the remark into political lore was a deliberate choice - and one more bucket of dioxin in the well.
Still Waiting for a NBA Title (SL, UT)
Hey now, let's be fair, the Republicans want lower taxes for all rich people. Not just whites.
Joseph Siegel (Ottawa)
@Joseph - Agreed. Reagan said the Democratic Party left him; the truth is however that by becoming a rich Hollywood ('B' actor) level wealthy he left the party of FDR. He couldn't even get that fact right.
OSS Architect (California)
The virtual plank in every Republican platform is that government is bad, and should be reduced to be drowned in the proverbial bathtub.

Urban people don't buy that myth. As imperfect as it is, government is the only institution that can build large scale projects. If you need highways, bridges, water aqueducts and pristine watersheds for reservoirs, then you need governments.

The national highway system, as a Federal project, started under President Eisenhower. So where did the GOP get it's current stance? First it was Nixon putting together the "Southern Strategy" to pickup Southern Democratic votes from people disgruntled by the Civil Rights legislation.

Then Reagan and Grover Norquist solidified the meme that "government can't solve the problem, government is the problem". That resonated in rural areas, where the benefits of government are not always, apparent.

So now the GOP has a "coalition" of, essentially, single issue voters (NRA members, Anti-abortionists, racists, Tea Partiers) that can get them reliably elected; but to do what? It's now a party with no purpose but to get elected and do nothing.

Not a formula for long term success.
Jack Pine Savage (Minnesota)
Cut taxes, hold endless political witch hunts, deregulate, increase defense spending, explode deficits ... we would be better off if they did do nothing, or are you talking about filibusters and shutting down government?
Look Ahead (WA)
From Forbes Magazine article on why corporations are relocating to cities:

"Overall population in the twenty largest cities grew by 4.9%.

Population growth among young adults (ages 25-34) grew by 8.8%.

For young adults with a college or post-graduate degree, population grew by 19.6%.

The greatest growth for educated young adults is occurring in the largest knowledge centers of the nation"

Looks like the GOP is also moving in a direction opposite the nation's largest employers. That cannot bode well for their future.
Lee Harrison (Albany)
And flip it around, look at what Brownback is doing to Kansas. The old notion "the states are the laboratories of our democracy" clearly applies.

Unfortunately we can see the results of this "experiment" right now. Kansas will not recover in the lifetime of anybody living there ... and a lot fewer people will live there. Brownback is turning Kansas into a depopulated agribusiness colony. When he's done the state can sell itself to Archer Daniels Midlands.
izzy607 (Portland.OR)
And yet Kansas will still be sending two Senators to congress, hence the structural advantage Republicans exploit in our political system.
Rick (New York, NY)
A recession under a Democratic president will make a lot of people in a lot of cities more receptive to the Republican Party. The last time that a recession hit during a Democratic presidency was under Carter in 1980 (an election year, no less). That year Reagan won a number of states (New York, Illinois and Massachusetts, to name just three) that would be unimaginable for a Republican nominee to win these days. Then, with the economy going in a positive direction again by 1984, he won 49 states and 525 electoral votes.
Jason (DC)
The recession of 1980 was basically caused by the Fed raising rates in order to reduce inflation. Then, when they lowered rates again by 1984 the economy started moving and Reagan looked like a hero.

My point is not that Reagan shouldn't have won but rather to point out the special economic circumstances involved in that election. We were also a different country back then. Today, people either vote for their party or they don't vote. Even in the teeth of a huge recession, Obama didn't attract a huge portion of the Republican vote. So, Republicans really shouldn't expect a recession to save them by changing Democratic minds.
WmC (Bokeelia, FL)
As wealth, jobs, and liberalism become concentrated in urban areas, Republicans will increasingly have to rely on voter suppression and gerrymandering to hang on to power. They will focus on the rural, noncollege, fearful, status-theatened voter, and tailor their message accordingly. God, guns, fear, and xenophobia.
IPI (SLC)
"As wealth, jobs, and liberalism become concentrated in urban areas, Republicans will increasingly have to rely on voter suppression and gerrymandering to hang on to power."

All they need to do is let Democratic policies ruin the inner cities again, as they did before. A few more years of double digit increases of homicides will take care of that.
Still Waiting for a NBA Title (SL, UT)
Don't worry. As the Wasatch Front continues to urbanize, Republican's will lose their stranglehold on the Utah Statehouse. Then when we continue prosper and finally have good public transportation and clean air year round instead of just spring and fall you can finally realize that Utah is great place in spite of its state leaders. Not because of it. We do as well as we do now not because we are self reliant, but because we take in more tax dollars from the Fed than we pay in and people are willing to put up with the awful gerrymander politics of this place because of its unsurpassed access to phenomenal natural areas.
sdavidc9 (Cornwall)
NBA:

Part of Utah's success is due to the social services provided by the Mormon Church, services that in other states are supplied and funded by the state. State government in Utah is small because it would duplicate and compete with services provided by the church. If taxes and the part of Mormon tithes that support social services are combined, Utah spends quite a bit of money on government functions, and the result could be called Christian socialism.
Geoffrey B. Thornton (Washington, DC)
Also, consider the reality republicans appeal to base human instincts. Knee jerk emotional appeals using anxiety, fear and paranoia based on race. Be fearful of Latinos, African Americans, Muslims, essentially everyone who isn't white. Those most likely to feel that way would be rural living and the least educated among us. That's why Trump says he lives the uneducated.

In fact, people who are uneducated are easily manipulated into voting against their own best interest. They oppose Minimum wage increase, health care, grants &. scholarships, education, food stamps, our social safety net. A sucker is born every minute and Trump seems to have cornered the market.
ChesBay (Maryland)
There IS a reason why the highly populated coasts are so blue. In the interior, cities are growing, and becoming more progressive. Thank goodness, that is the trend.
L M D'Angelo (Westen NY)
Please! You don't think Democrats use the same base emotional appeals for their less educated supporters. It is not a question of rural/urban, or racial issues. It is so easy to paint with a broad brush; to see those who disagree with as "the other" and "not like us."
The rhetoric around policy and politics has reached a fevered pitch this year.
I could go on and on about how the language of the presidential elections create a false idea that the President can solve all problems. It seems to me that many people do not understand the division of power.I will save that for another post
izzy607 (Portland.OR)
Democrats do use emotional appeals also, but the difference is that Democratic policies actually help most people (including most wealthy people), while the Republicans policies help only the wealthy.
"Hummmmm" (In the Snow)
After losing his 1964 presidential campaign, Barry Goldwater said that the republican party is falling behind and had better get to work…this is what the republican’s answer is.

The GOP, following the direction of Joseph Goebbels who said that by repeating a few very specific ideas and understanding the psychology of the people concerned you could make them believe that a square is in fact a circle by just using words, and words can be molded to disguise intent. The purpose of propaganda isn’t to be intellectually pleasing or to control a few mindless people but instead, conquer the broad masses. They also use the wordsmithing of Dr. Frank Luntz, who understands how to use words that insight people to act purely on emotions and without all of the facts, manipulate people to act against their own needs.

Walker goes to Germany & England and 47 senators send a letter to the leader of Iran, Bush goes to Estonia (Russia).

The GOP uses gerrymandering, voter restrictions, limiting information freedoms, economic warfare defunding the country’s budget, destabilizes the country using fear tactics, provoking: racism, hyper-right religion, confederacy. Koch spending a billion dollars.
ChesBay (Maryland)
Hmmm--So, you see, the Republicans took Goldwater to heart, and get right to work. 1964 is when the Republican Party began to morph into its present radioactive blob. I'm just sorry I didn't see it much sooner.
L M D'Angelo (Westen NY)
Just wondering if you believe everything the Democrats hawk is truth. Don't they, too, repeat the same things over and over so that their followers believe them to be absolutely true?