The irresponsible Republican tax cuts spurred speculation and set the stage for this market meltdown. A catalyst was all that was needed. Now Republicans are balking at doing the fiscal measures needed to prevent human suffering. Their justification is the already gigantic deficits they created to further enrich the wealthy. Forgotten is their lie that the tax cuts would lead to surpluses. Ironically these same republicans have been busy cutting social programs and pandemic response measures that have left us more vulnerable to this crisis. Democrats must not allow fiscal measures focused on “protecting” those who have already been the beneficiaries of Republican giveaways.
84
@Robert O.
Red and blue states should be left by the national government to handle the problem as they see fit. This is far preferable to the national government's forcing red states to do more than they want and blue states to do less, even though it is horribly unfair to blue people trapped in red states. Bill Gates and others of his wealth should help those people.
2
@Robert O. Reverse the "tax cut".
7
Why are there no articles about how the virus first came into contact with humans. Are we gonna highlight the fact that once again the Chinese food markets are responsible for bringing us yet another deadly outbreak? We remember SARS that was also traced back to bats in China now we have Covid that’s traced back to them again.
Are we gonna have a conversation about Chinese food handling policies? Otherwise, if we manage to get this outbreak under control, it’s only a matter of time before something else pops up in Covid’s place.
We as a country really need to re-evaluate our relationship with China. They have no problem stealing our intellectual properties and now their lax food policies are killing the rest of us worldwide.
Whatever happens with Covid, we as a nation need to have this discussion about China moving forward. Was sending all our manufacturing to trading with China really worth it? Look at what it’s done to the US and the world long term. The stock market loved the cheap labor and record profits. However, our wages are lower since we are competing with cheap Chinese workers and the quality of what they produce, at times, could not be lower.
I know this is not the time to lay blame, but these issues cannot continue to be ignored. It is literally killing us. No more business as usual after this. I hope Biden can speak on these issues and what he plans to do regarding China moving forward. We cannot continue with the definition of insanity.
15
@A.B No it would not be culturally sensitive to point that out. We are already being wokescolded for referring to it as Chinese Flu.
5
Simple -Fire Trump, he must resign - we need a LEADER. DJM
2
Trump said "America First"
Macron countered with "The Planet First".
Guess who's more intelligent.
4
Hopefully, we can make it to November, because the change needed to grease the wheels of world cooperation are nowhere to be found in this White House.
3
Things can get worse otherwise our government in New Zealand would not be thinking of putting a travel ban on people from the USA and Italy. The problem is that governments are damned if they do and damned if they don't. It's the economy verses containment of the virus.
5
Perhaps is time to cut economic assistance to countries like Israel, and redirect all that money to help our own people with basic things like free test, free treatment, mortgages or rent during convalescence, food, and utilities bills. American people will not forget if the government and politicians from both parties let our people die.
2
“What is needed now is leadership that focuses on the domestic challenges and seeks to build international cooperation — rather than scapegoating other countries.”
What a concept! ‘Cept it ain’t gonna happen with this introverted, navel-gazing bunch that is our gumment these days. How I long for competent people leading our country. That “great sucking sound,” to quote the dearly-departed Ross Perot, now emanates from far north of the border...um, around Washington, D.C.!
2
Poignant. The operating premise here is Trump leading a conversation with 20 nations to collaborate on a solution. That, right there folks, is the essence of his presidency.
Obama pulled it off. As could Bush, Clinton and Regan. Trump? That train left the station the day he pronounced “America First” as this nation’s national security policy.
17
Demand will ramp up by summer. Q3 & Q4 will be very strong. The virus will fizzle by summer and the absurdity of the hysteria will become evident.
1
Our useless Senate is blocking needed relief to shove an irrelevant abortion provision into the bill while they scream about partisan politics.
Mitch McConnell almost sent everyone home, so you know it didn't look good then, and doesn't look good now.
11
In many regards, the recen market losses should be interpreted as a vote of no confidence in his "leadership".
14
Superpower attempts to dominate must be replaced by superpower leadership in international co-operation. The Coronavirus fight and the climate change fight are major challenges to this planet. Nationalists, like Trump, must be sidelined if we have any hope to win.
8
President Trump gets to blame this on the virus. It was late in the business cycle. He grants huge tax cuts to rich. He muddles on trade. But he gets to blame it on virus.
Then, when the virus severity is controlled by scientific crowd control measures, he will claim the Democrats were crying wolf.
4
Is a global economic collapse such a bad thing? Think about it.
1
Rich investors do not need a bail out. They got it with the tax cut.
9
I think one good idea would be to bring in the expertise of Formers Fed Chair Bernanke, Tres. Sec. Paulson and NY Fed President Giethner.
They basically designed the system which pulled us out of the financial crisis 12 years ago.
Still, what they'll likely suggest is a strong fiscal response in combination with Fed actions.
2
Do not repeat the mistakes of the last recession when the banks and big companies were bailed out and the everyday person was left to twist in the wind. Remember it is consumers who power our economy, they will need help to be back on their feet. It is their spending that will create demand and pull work through for our businesses. This must be a bottom up recovery. It does no good to dump money into the top of the system and save the rich, if there is no demand for the products.
This failure is also what led directly to the election of Trump, don't make that mistake again.
18
Politics of the GOP favor the rich more and more.
Viruses care little of your boutique concierge health insurance, fine wines, vacation homes, business connections, and preferred politicians. They discriminate against any human regardless of race, wealth, or beliefs.
Wealth and privilege cannot shield you. There is no PAC that can shield you.
It’s so democratic!
6
As mentioned in Neil Irwin's article, something strange is happening in the stock market. With our Stable Genius in the White House, I put half of my money in a mutual fund that holds short-term U.S. treasuries. Like clockwork, whenever stocks indexes dip, this particular mutual fund goes up. The principle, of course, is that whenever the stock market gets spooked, money flows into U.S. treasuries as the safest of safe harbors. However, this hasn't been the case for the past week: both stock indexes and U.S. treasuries have fallen off the cliff.
I think an explanation here is that the world, as well as the American investors, have little confidence in the Trump Administration to get us out of this mess. For a president who has been so reckless with the truth and norms, could it be that investors are now worried that the U.S. government might not pay back its debt? If U.S. treasuries are treated like high-risk debt, nevermind the recession, we'll have an economic implosion.
10
Trump rode the Obama economy for 3 years before destroying it.
The Obama economy created the most jobs, and raised the stock market more than Trump. President Obama was a LEADER who saved the auto industry when EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN opposed it.
Trump took the strong, steadily-growing Obama economy and juiced it, hoping to push any possible recession or depression out until AFTER the 2020 election. He cut taxes for himself and the super rich (lying to the middle class) which created massive, trillion-dollar annual deficits, increasing the national debt to the highest global history. Next, he UNILATERALLY entered a trade war with China (which it's now clear he's lost) and then used that economic disaster to start a welfare program for farmers and to pressure the fed to lower interest rates, despite the fact that economic conditions called for rate INCREASES! This led to irresponsible corporate borrowing. It also left the fed with fewer options in a recession.
Guess what happens when the next, inevitable downturn comes along and there's this much excess debt? The downturn becomes a whole lot worse than it would have been.
Trump has single-handedly destroyed the US economy... and just in time for President Joe Biden to assume office! So glad to see you go, Trump!
29
I'm afraid what America will get from Trump was what he gave his vendors , his lenders, his shareholders, when his businesses went bust...0
And you can't say America doesn't deserve it...Trump used people's self pity to con them into believing it's the other guy's fault, minorities and illegals, for their misfortunes. Now it's an alien virus that's been subjected to a travel ban.
Next he'll be calling for taxpeyer funding for a virus wall.
This guy is so out of his depth.
14
This Corona Virus will end hopefully within 2 to 3 months. but it will end. If you sell off your stocks and bonds now you will lose. By selling now when the market is so down, you are a loser. Why aren't our financial wizards advising people to stop the stock market sell down?
4
@Barb the Lib
2-3? Try 12+.
1
I am really tiring of "all the winning" under Trump. Can we please have him stop it?
17
We all knew who Trump was in 2016. I blame his angry supporters and sycophants for this pathetic, inept, and dangerous response.
23
The last time everybody in the USA were as one was when Carter was the President and he spoke the truth. The Republicans and Democrats got together to condemn his every deed and blame him for things over which he had no control.
All the information we get passes through the spin room and we watch the spinning as it is being spun.
Woodrow Wilson's Creel Committee 1917-1919 is as an important event in American history
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-woodrow-wilsons-propaganda-machine-changed-american-journalism-180963082/
One hundred years of gaslighting has exacted a heavy toll on our sanity. I read 1984 and saw the movie. The movie was filmed in dreary black and white with dark gray overtones. The book was in bright living colour inside a giant suburban shopping mall. I still remember my first trip to an all you could eat buffet. Nobody could talk, smile or laugh because all the energy went into stuffing your face.
The great tragedy of this pandemic is that when we need it most we can no longer touch each other.
6
ummmm. what? Recession is already here, baby. Layoffs are coming very soon. Theres no way you can pause the economy for two weeks with every citizen being a clown living on credit.
4
Nah, we need to be sure that the rich are taken care of. We don’t want any of that communist healthcare stuff. And, now let the layoffs begin.
8
This is a hurricane for the world
4
Yes we can!
Get rid of Trump.
Then things will get better.
6
The next time you are speaking to Evangelicals, tell them that the coronavirus is God's way of getting rid of Trump.
15
Trump twiddles while America germs.
6
Coronavirus will be the scapegoat for an ignorant and cocky administration’s shameful fiscal behavior that spun an economy and debt hot air balloon out of control. Wealthy tax cuts and irresponsible tricks to inject markets with a sugar high, and now we are seeing the tipping of the scales. Pay attention America, this is the GOPs strategy, has been for decades. Hopefully this time we’ll have a responsible democrat come in, once again, to clean up the mess. GOP serves up Grand Old Delusions, and they ending up hurting the little guys the most of all.
12
Now we're seeing the fallout from Trump's divisiveness, scapegoating, tariffs and America alone, nationalist policies. As a leader, Trump is an incompetent disaster and right now November seems a very long way off.
10
Well written article.
Wait ... recession is not being helped by Trump and his administration.
The solution seems to be long-standing Democratic policy proposals.
Trump and his cronies are fake businessmen. Their acumen so far in this crisis is apalling.
6
A smart president would have gathered world leaders by phone if necessary, and coordinated a worldwide response to this pandemic. A foolish egotistical isolationist instead stuck his head in the sand, refused to help other countries, and now blames everyone but himself for the spread in the US. And still, he follows the same foolish path to ruin.
10
The damage wrought by the virus itself is minuscule beside the damage done by panicked people and governments overreacting to it. It's absurd enough to be hilarious, but unfortunately I have to live with the very real consequences of this mass stupidity.
From the amount of alarm I heard from people and news outlets I imagined this was a devastating disease laying whole populations low, but no, it's infected less than a million people globally. Entire countries shut down over a few thousand people with symptoms easily confused with influenza and the common cold. This isn't a gruesome disease like smallpox or ebola, it's just a seasonal respiratory infection.
This feels like people were desperate for a plague, another black death, and so they jumped on Covid-19 and hyped it up to biblical levels. The black death it ain't, folks. It's not even SARS, and that's a footnote in history people 10 years younger than me don't even know about.
Oh I'm gonna be washing my hands real thorough and practice "social distancing" (neither are new things for me), but I'm not buying into this disaster narrative. I'm not following Trump's line, but his attitude was closer to reasonable than what I've seen from the hysterical media.
1
@Joel I believe that all the people on ventilators -- and all those who are about to be -- would disagree with you about the seriousness of this. The whole point of the response is to take serious steps before they really seem needed. The whole point is to hopefully have not a lot to talk about. That's prevention. The responsible thing to do.
I hope your outlook turns out to be correct, actually.
4
The 116th Congressional Senate is responsible for this mess. This is on their heads we don't have a competent leader, and on Nancy Pelosi, too, for not going far enough with impeachment. She should have brought impeachment charges against Trump, Pence, and Barr -- all are crooks and it's not even news! Now, the lack of a coherent U.S. response and early intervention in the coronavirus has put the world's economies in jeopardy and Congress is dithering over spending packages when what we really need is someone competent at the helm of the country. Trump fiddles as the world burns.
3
The average age of people dying of COVID in Italy is 81.
We're going to crash our economy and devastate the financial health of billions of young people the world over to save 80 year olds who smoked their entire lives and vote to deny the rest of us healthcare.
1
Ironic that Trump who has survived multiple scandals with extensive and aggressive lying might finally face a reckoning caused by the one thing that isn't his fault. Putting children in holding pens made America great, apparently, but no way is this virus making America great.
1
COVID-19 has put in the open all the vulnerabilities of Trump's poor policies. I knew a recession was coming, but never imagine a pandemic would be the catalyst. Alas, the truth has come out and probably one of the worst recessions in the USA's history is upon us under Trump's watch. With a $1 trillion deficit and $23 trillions in debt, it was inevitable. All the efforts of the Obama era have been wiped out. Bravo Trump, you won!
3
Why are we waiting? Because we are crippled by ignorance and ineptitude in the Trump administration.
4
It's not just a coronavirus recession. It's a petropolitical recession and, above all, a reckoning at long last for an incompetent, self-serving, corrupt president who has been in way over his head from the very beginning.
3
Depression. Fixed it for you. And, it’s the TRUMP Depression.
NOVEMBER.
3
Again, European leaders are doing far more to calm their citizenry, because they are communicating accurately and honestly. Merkel, Macron -- doing their jobs. Trump shows every day that he is clueless, which is such a shame when he has some of the best infectious disease and epidemiology talent in the world available to him.
We need leaders who will stop the run on the toilet paper aisle at the local supermarket. Where banks in 2007-8 learned that you feed cash into a panic recession, now we need to feed masks and Purell into our stores, in order to give a sense of control to people.
I again wait diligently for one senior person in DC to be in front of a camera crew demonstrating how he/she properly washes hands. That is the message people need. Social distancing, but not total lockdown, and a lot of washing. If people will feel better wearing a mask, so be it, but let it be an effective N-95 mask, not an ordinary surgical mask, which is useless.
62
The 2008 recession was caused by a banking crisis which was largely quantifiable. The market looked at well known, well-established factors and had a pretty good grasp on the likely depth of the recession and the pace of the eventual recovery. The present crisis is entirely different. The cause is a virus that may spread drastically or may ease. There is simply too much speculation about how a virus of unknown severity will affect the economy. Many seem wedded to the worst case scenario. That's aribitrary. The economy and the stock market have already drastically corrected for the virus, perhaps too much so. Only the future will tell, and we do not know the future.
1
" Domestically, this situation could be used to restore faith in government and in the expertise that is required to address the pandemic and stop a global economic collapse."
With trump, there isn't a chance of this happening. He'll blame everything on Obama, Hillary and the Impeachment hearings.
3
How a pandemic is a surprise we're so utterly & intentionally unprepared-for is incredible.
We're extremely fortunate that this isn't a vastly more virulent & deadly bug, but that bug, we're told is definitely coming.
How our economy & infrastructure isn't enormously bolstered & prepared for such events is dystopian & disappointing, but not surprising.
The unfolding shock to our healthcare & financial livelihoods is further definitive, decisive evidence that this free-market extremist fatcatism is 100% unsustainable & fallacious.
Trump is wrong. Warren & Sanders are right. Americans are seduced by the 'greed is god' ethic of easy industrial-consumerist convenience. It is failing, as was virtually designed.
We should have plowed a portion of our national treasure into basic financial & medical protections for the People. We didn't, haven't & won't.
We are addicted to this boom-bust drama in markets & the perilous disease of rewarding affluence & punishing struggle.
This was a terrible design for a society, & as a society, we deserve the punishment of another inevitable depression, since we refused to learn & adjust, and since so many voters support short term greed over reasonable sustainability.
Support your local organic farmer.
5
@Tldr We should have also put national treasure into more education so more people are able to think critically and always, always ask hard questions.
The lack of enough people doing this is coming to roost.
2
When this is over, if people go out, spend money, that would go a long way to turning back on the American Machine!
1
“government should help employers to guarantee a basic income”
Government cannot unilaterally provide anything. It must tax, borrow, or print money, all of which harm the economy.
1
Several states will bankrupt — California because their tax structure is dependent on capital gains and people have capital losses. Illinois and New Jersey because their underfunded pension plans just lost a bundle. Municipal bonds from these states will be similar to those of Puerto Rico and Detroit: worthless.
1
I am almost 70 and enjoy a secure and comfortable life. I strongly believe, however, that if care needs to be rationed the priority should be the people with the highest chance of survival even if it means I might have to wait longer if I need treatment.
4
I hope it doesn’t come to that..all lives are precious. Even yours but thank you for your courage.
3
Maybe a coincidence but it seems that various GOP lawmakers are seeking self isolation. Possible because they don't want to face the public and they might start to feel guilty to let DJT at the helm
5
The federal government may be flailing in its efforts to prepare for the coronavirus but I can tell you one group that is not -- bankruptcy attorneys.
4
A consolidated international intervention led by whom? Can't be Trump - he has no credibility, doesn't know what he doesn't know, and makes matters worst very time he speaks.
13
Some in the comments here think the business is a "natural cycle". No it is not. The business cycle is man-made, because human economy in general is, well, man-made. The business cycle is an historical attribute of capitalism, and only capitalism, and is inevitable under capitalism.
You'd think that the concept that economy is a human and not "natural" process would be tautologically obvious. It is not for two reasons. First, universal individual alienation from the social order is also an attribute of capitalist society. This leads the individual to experience social processes as impersonal forces rather like the wind and rain. Second, the commercial media deliberately misinforms on the capitalist business cycle, again, for hopefully obvious reasons (they are capitalist enterprises). Instead, they pretend every cycle that the "good times" will go on forever. And they expect us to go along with the pretense. When the game of musical chairs suddenly halts, they report it after the fact. "How could have anyone known?"
But even a weatherperson gives a forecast.
5
I would love to be able to add something useful to the discussion of :“How now, Coronavirus?” My feeling is that the sooner we can say we have got the problem defined the sooner we can come up with more meaningful measures to resolve it. Clearly giving the WHO and national CDCs the baton from outset to resolution would be a great way for the world’s nations to take effective action together against all future pandemics. Perhaps that will be an outcome of this pandemic. We need to work together in a unified manner and that isn’t happening is it? Next time... yes! With some luck we will get on top of the Coronavirus by the fall and a vaccine will be available for the 2021 flu season that will work against Coronavirus, too. Getting trump and his incompetents out of office come November will create a pathway for a worldwide coalition to be formed to fight pandemics and the coming ...even more serious ... effects of climate change. We can work for that to happen in the wake of mess we are now experiencing. We can all do so much better than this...it’s time we did so.
9
if anything shows that our current form of global capitalism doesn't work, it's the current stock market decline and the possibility of a global recession because of a pandemic.
Capitalism, especially the global kind, rests on the fallacious assumption that it's the individual person or the individual company looking out for itself that is the best means of assuring prosperity for all. So, everybody, in this time of crisis, is out to protect themselves, selling stocks (securities) or hoarding certain essentials to protect themselves, with no regard for a greater social good. Consequently, retirement funds and essential household goods and jobs disappear or will disappear.
We need an economic system more socially oriented than our current capitalism. Biden promises more of our current failed system. Bernie Sanders offers us a more socially oriented alternative.
6
@Steve C
A long journey begins with a single step. Bernie thinks he's on the moon and can bounce ahead. America rarely works that way. Slavery, women's rights, workplace protection, voting rights, etc. All took many years. I'm sorry, but that's how inertia works.
2
@John Harper
We've run out of time for the incremental.
Dealing with climate change is 30 years overdue. Yet establishment Democrats (Pelosi) belittle the Green New Deal.
People in the US die daily for lack of healthcare. Yet establishment Democrats think Obamacare -- which leaves 10s of millions uninsured or underinsured and which provides another 10s of millions with a second rate insurance, Medicaid -- is generally ok, needing just a bit of tweaking .
If we care about human life, we have to move away from establishment Democrats' "solutions" and make that move much more quickly than incrementally. That's what Bernie wants.
3
A coronavirus recession is already in progress. More importantly, a coronavirus health emergency it’s just getting started and the means to prevent it were ignored because this president did not want to hear about inconvenient truths until it was too late. In addition the current administration dismantled the infrastructure and terminated many of the experts that could have helped deal with this pandemic. congressional Republicans have been aware for a long time that this president is unfit yet they have stood by him and protected him for purely political reasons. The main lesson I see from this crisis for voters is that the republican party andTrump are unfit to hold power.
10
I'm afraid nothing will avert a major global economic meltdown anymore. The economic system based on growth touted here, once again by an economist, has been leveraged beyond sustainability, for far too long. The virus, which under a real economic would have run its course, we would have all moved forward as before, and our system would have survived such an event.
But we don't have a real economy. We've borrowed from our future and pretended those assets are real. They aren't. There are no 'ways to avert a major economic global economic meltdown' using the tools in Ian Goldin's toolbox. The bill has come due. It's time to think outside the fantastical box we've all created for ourselves.
Yes, we do need to come together as fellow citizens of this planet, but not in the way this author describes. Growth that cannot be sustained for the measly couple of hundred years the industrial revolution and unfettered capitalism has ruled the world, is not a system that is viable. That short sellers are making fortunes on the crisis speaks volumes on how ridiculous this all is. What will they spend their money on when there's nothing left left to buy?
6
While I am not a Trump supporter, I doubt that having a different administration in power would have made much of a difference. The rapidity of this crisis is unprecedented. No one three weeks ago could have predicted the upheaval that has occurred.
3
@Thomas
In 2006, I "predicted the upheaval that has occurred" when I lobbied my county's Industrial Development Agency to construct a vaccine plant using local resources and nine billion dollars in federal funds that President Bush had lobbied for. This effort was unsuccessful but construction of a neoplastics chemotherapy plant in this county has now just been completed. Staffing is now underway.
1
The reason the US is having such upheaval is because our president and his administration failed - miserably - to prepare for what any same person could see was coming. Testing kits. Quarantine planning. Financial support. Health care triage and treatment capability. We are where we are because our "leaders" put us here through their criminal negligence
4
Trump used to boast about how people’s 401k’s are skyrocketing.
As of today at the close of the markets he is almost to the point where the DOW was on the day he took office back in 2017.
During the Obama-Biden prosperity, they took a country going over the cliff where the DOW was just over 7,000. By the time he left office, the index had gone up about 150%.
Tonight Trump is just one average day away from taking those 401k’s back to 2017.
14
I'm certainly no economist, so I'm sure I'm oversimplifying my assessment.
But from my view, a deep recession is imminent for one main reason: for almost the past year, the manufacturing sector has been in recession and the only thing keeping the economy robust and growing was strong consumer confidence and spending. That is beginning to come to an abrupt end. So we, the foundation of the economy, have had our foundations swept from under our feet, and we can no longer support anything.
I'm 72, so I hope the recovery comes sooner rather than later.
9
I am 70 and have had a wonderful life. I am still healthy and a fanatic athlete. I have love and family filling my life. And I am fortunate to have enough assets and income even if a big hole has just been blasted in them. I don’t give a fig if my PERSONAL finances recover. And if I sickened and died tomorrow, I would still consider myself as fortunate beyond belief. Finally if my losses help in driving this criminal lunatic out of office, they will have been well spent.
1
The problem is a White House that doesn't comprehend the problem. We need to deploy widespread testing immediately. We need TeleMedicine immediately. We need judicious deployment of health care workers, including holding some back so they are available later. Our health care system is not built to handle this, so we need to adjust in order to best accommodate.
5
Mr Goldin: you are dreaming sir, if you think any of your well-reasoned plans will be pursued, much less realized.
4
Left/Right politics aside. We need a rational human being to guide us. We don't have one. Just an old man who thinks he's 35 and looking to leave. My word to Putin? Your ploy has ended.
5
Sound and practical recommendations. Assuredly, no one from the Trump "Administration" will read this.
4
A buying opportunity is what this is in terms of the market. We still have to have a few more frightening news stories before it bottoms out. If you have cash to buy you will make out well if you buy before the panic eases.
3
@Rusty
And if you don't have cash to buy?
Seems so easy for some of us to just leave a large segment of the population for dead while focusing on the "great buying opportunity" this has presented. Seems rather inhumane and conjures the hallmarks of nearly all Republican policy and philosophy.
No wonder we're so divided.
7
In the past Trump has never met a problem that was too big that he couldn't walk away from it into a bankruptcy. Where does that leave the USA now? Trump will be retiring soon to a golf course in Russia - no doubt.
7
Excellent analysis by the authors. In 2016, Trump voters ignored his decades of malfeasance and bankruptcies. They drew false equivalence of his record of corruption to Clinton to justify their votes. Results of numerous investigations of Clinton have demonstrably shown that there was no comparison. For many voters, it was willful ignorance. For others, they bought Trump’s bloating and false promises. While no doubt Clinton made errors, she acted in good faith for the sake of the country. Trump has shown he functions without regard for good faith. Romney said as much on the Senate floor with his vote during the impeachment trial.
New Yorkers have known the truth about Trump for years having lived with his unrelenting tabloid dramas in search of power and legitimacy. Now, when we need honest actors most, operating in good faith on our behalf, we have bad actors without care for the social contract resulting in exorbitant costs to our nation’s health on every level. Trump’s next bankruptcy will be you, the US taxpayer.
7
@Sophistia
Beautifully stated.
If the news media, other than FOX's nonsense channel, had stopped touting Trump's "booming" economy for the last three years as if their jobs depended on repeating his lies then people would have been more aware that the economy was house of cards. And the wind has now arrived. Why the media, who knew that Obama rescued the country and reignited the economy in spite of GOP resistance, simply acted like robots as they praised Tump for the economy still bewilders me. Trump told us before he got elected that he would run the government like he ran his businesses. Considering how many times he went bankrupt and how many times he broke the law to make himself look like a success he simply pulled off a great con helped by the media who found him entertaining. And now people are dying. So the show is over, the clown is exposed as an imposter president and once again the Democrats will have to save the country. And both Trump and his GOP mafia need to be voted out of office in 2020. So vote or suffer the consequences of 4 more years of Trump and the GOP destroying the planet, starting with the USA which is already mortaly wounded.
6
Trump's reaction to this pandemic has been immature, incompetent, and ignorant this whole time. In Feb. 24th he said we were very close to a vaccine, and white house was forced to say he was talking about Ebola. Do any of us actually believe this? He's been congratulating himself for his supposed success in containing the spread over and over and over again. Yet, the spread continues to accelerate. He's been touting the stock market's rise almost continuously during the spread of this virus. And now the markets are in free fall. One thing has become abundantly clear if it wasn't clear already. Trump is wholly unfit to even make a suggestion of what to do now, much less lead in this completely preventable time of crisis.
6
Oil prices are collapsing in large part by the decisions of Saudi Arabia and Russia to have a price war just now.
That is separate from the coronavirus issue. Yes, the virus set off the drop in demand that ignited the price war, but the decision to have a price war is separate and adds much to the problems.
One thing it adds is to collapse the debt and security on the debt of high cost producers. Many US producers run heavily leveraged, deeply in debt. Their security is oil leases that themselves suddenly lost value when it was the industry rather than just one company that hit trouble. This is entirely a function of doing a price war, not just the reduction in demand, which would merely have reduced income flow, not crashed it to zero and devalued the security too.
Other business in the US uses the Business School Model of heavy debt and lots of leverage to increase the rate of return on the smaller capital investments actually made. That only works when things go well. When they go badly across an entire industry, it is the making of a bank disaster. That's what we've got.
The rush to get cash out of all markets, stocks, bonds, everything, means a cash crisis is in progress, deflation raging.
This is much worse than just the virus had to be. It is a system hitting its limits. It is a failure to regulate, and reckless risk taking.
7
@Mark Thomason
It's all of a piece with 'do us a favour, though". America, the indispensable nation under Trump turned into America, the low life extortionist.
Trump Country: I extend a Laurel leaf. Let's all band together.
3
Where is Trump?
5
@Mixilplix
Golfing.
Entire countries on lockdown. America out of toilet paper. I think Nostradamus predicted all this.
6
Had a job interview in Germany not long ago. One of the first questions was, "Are you a Trump supporter?"
"Heck no," I replied.
The interview continued. If I had answered differently, it would have ended on the spot, and I would not have blamed them a bit.
Trump has put the reputation of all Americans into question in the minds of most of the rest of the democractically-elected free world.
As Trump himself might say: "Sad!"
240
There will be hell to pay if they bail out any of these cruise lines, banks, airlines, or brokerage firms.
5
@Ryan
Yeah! You tell 'em! Just like for all those bankers, hedge fund managers and short-sellers who tried to bankrupt us in '08. We sure showed them, what with all the prison sentences and hefty fines and...
Oh wait...
They'll get their bailout. And, just like in '08, there will be no consequences. This is America, after all. Land of the Rich. Home of the Oligarchs.
@Ryan
Are you kidding? They will get the lion's share of any bailout money. The government should support the people, and let business fend for itself. Instead, America does it the other way.
1
David Frum, no liberal, stated things clearly and succinctly in a column for The Atlantic. Not much more to say. The only nay-sayers are red-hat cultists. I knew that this parasitical President would botch any real crisis. Frum writes:
More people will get sick because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. More people will suffer the financial hardship of sickness because of his presidency than if somebody else were in charge. The medical crisis will arrive faster and last longer than if somebody else were in charge. So, too, the economic crisis. More people will lose their jobs than if somebody else were in charge. More businesses will be pushed into bankruptcy than if somebody else were in charge. More savers will lose more savings than if somebody else were in charge. The damage to America’s global leadership will be greater than if somebody else were in charge.
There is always something malign in Trump’s incompetence. He has no care or concern for others; he cannot absorb the trouble and suffering of others as real. He monotones his way through words of love and compassion, but those words plainly have no content or meaning for him. The only thing that is real is his squalid vanity. This virus threatens to pierce that vanity, so he denied it as long as he could. What he refuses to acknowledge cannot be real, can it?
15
@Peak Oiler
Frum's words are spot on and completely demoralizing. I wonder how many in "Trump Country" will be saying "thank God Hillary isn't the president" in a few weeks. Heaven forbid we have a competent, experienced leader at a time like this. Instead, we get reality show president and all the incompetence that engenders.
2
We don’t need loans we need a safety net to keep consumers living their lives.
A loan when you lose your job is a slap in the face! Why don’t we payday loan the banks for a change and make some interest off them. See a problem both ethically and morally?
4
To answer the question. No. Not as long as Trump and McConnell are in office. Another disaster with Republicans at the helm, (sound familiar?) to be followed by Democrats cleaning up the mess, working on the car's engine while the Fox news gang is continuously blowing the horn, screaming the repairs are no good, cost to much, take to long, aren't needed at all...
7
I’m not freaking out. It’s a natural cycle of the economy
9
@Nathan
You're right, it is a natural cycle, but for us seniors (I'm 72 and still working because I can't afford to retire), the timing of the cycle is what's freaky.
20
@Nathan
It's the natural cycle of a predominantly capitalistic economy. We need an economy more socially responsible than our current capitalism. Bernie Sanders wants to provide that with a much stronger government sponsored safety net in healthcare, housing, education, workers' rights, family leave, disaster relief.
24
@Nathan I... it goes up and down, but going down this fast even with interest rate cuts and promises by the Fed of massive stimulus?
10
This is what we get with Trump and the GOP. Depleting all resources during the high times without any regard for the safety net for the tough times.
Huge tax cuts for the wealthy while economy booming.
Fed interest rate cuts despite lowest unemployment rate.
Same with Bush and the Great Recession. Sick of cleaning up the mess GOP leaves for the country just because they can win popularity for cutting taxes and hiking up the DOW for a while. So they can win re-election.
GOP supporters - LEARN!!
15
I know that most of these stumble-bums operating in the White House can’t be expected to practice forethought. But really: having both Trump AND Pence together for a bash in Florida? During Coronavirus??? Was anyone there thinking about the line of succession???
Sigh.....
5
S&L, LTCM, too-big to-fail, QE ad infinitum and now coronavirus: How is it our garden of economic plenty, the splendor of modern competition, always needs bailout? And always at the top?
Perhaps the system is designed poorly; perhaps it's designed to fail and bail?
Cue the after-hours press conference on Friday in Manhattan. Bailout script please.
1
The Fed opened its doors today to free money if you are a large corporation or very rich. Wall Street will take a billion dollars and like magic poof its 9 billion. They keep the nine billion in the Fed bank never physically touching it. The Fed in turn gives them 2.5 - 3 % interest on the 9 billion. It would be a lot easier to just take a dumptruck load of taxpayer money and dump it at the feet of the 1% but if you do it this way you can say you're saving the economy.
6
Thank you for your compassionate, well thought out and worldly-in the best sense of the word-opinion piece.
2
Why is there so little confidence in our stable genius? He innately understands medicine, science, warfare,the economy and reality television. Covid-19 and a global recession should be easy to handle. Trump should just all his friends who are world leaders to meet at Mar-a-logo for a weekend of golf and brainstorming.
2
Here's another case where I ask myself WWPW -- What Would Putin Want? This seems to be exactly what he wants. It's gotten little attention from the dreadful Trump administration that Putin's Russia and MBS' Saudi Arabia have chosen this exact moment to try and put our domestic oil companies out of business by flooding the market with cheap oil. It's an incredibly hostile move with very, very suspicious timing, and what does the Trump administration have to say about it? Crickets. Nothing. Of course he did go out of his way to blame Western Europe while helping to tank their economies with his travel ban, didn't he? Personally, I smell a rat the size of Mar a Lago. Seems to me that Putin wins again.
247
@Brannon Perkison Why worry? In a recession we’ll use less oil, won’t we? Otherwise I’d say you were right on target.
1
@B. Rothman Actually, when oil is cheap, people use it more than clean energy sources, so it's a step backwards.
8
@Brannon Perkison
It's also more than suspicious that Russia has reported fewer than thirty coronavirus cases for the entire nation, and that Putin picked this week to put forward constitutional changes that would allow him to stay in power until 2036.
11
This is a superb opinion piece and one I've been waiting to see from the venerable New York Times.
The fact that not much is being done to help workers, the disabled and elderly is abhorrent and unconscionable.
After watching the spectacle that was the president's speech last night, it's clear our government doesn't have a handle on anything related to this pandemic. Everything they're doing is to make it appear as though they're taking this seriously and to make him look good.
The solutions you offer in your opinion piece are prudent and would vastly help the threat of bankruptcies for companies that might fail during this catastrophe. However, I'm doubtful employers will step up to the plate and help workers who may become insolvent.
When money becomes tight, helping others will take second place to ensuring you're properly insulated from both the virus and destitution.
249
@Pamela L. : This administration only helps the very wealthy, who do not need any help. Everyone else is unimportant to them. Less than unimportant. That is why we most VOTE BLUE.
15
@Pamela L. No I don't believe these solutions are all the answers. "There is much that should be done immediately. Banks, supported by governments, should provide discounted loans and increase their tolerance of late repayments by businesses that risk bankruptcy because of the absence of supplies or customers, or because of late payments by creditors."
How about banks & credit card companies, supported by governments, should provide tolerance of late payments for credit card loans and mortgages. Reduced rates to near zero on credit card debt.
Most of what Ian talks about helps businesses and industry, but very little to individuals or families. What happens when things improve and many people are not rehired?
9
SARS-CoV-2 does not cause recessions.
The 2020 recession is the Trump Recession.
346
@Steven of the Rockies I'm using that, thanks!
8
@Midway Wow, still on the media blame train, huh. Wake up. The president has defunded and disassembled every institution that might have alleviated this crisis--and it is, indeed, a crisis. All the fair reporting on a national emergency was promptly and wrongly ignored by Trump supporters, including you, over the last three months.
125
@N "The president has defunded and disassembled every institution that might have alleviated this crisis--and it is, indeed, a crisis."
Hmm... I don't see dead people. Where are all the backlogged ICUs and ER's, and the bodies piling up at home and in the streets of America? Funny but I thought this was the week the Doom would show its face...
Turns out, this will be a media-hyped panic attack, instead of simply a global virus that needs to be medically contained and treated, with rational non-politicized actions.
Praying for our coastal and urban friends, that the massive death rate promised is simply American media overhype. "The Trump Recession", indeed...
7
I do recall just a few weeks ago, the guy who’s advice Trump values most said that this virus is nothing more than a bad cold. That was the Medal of Freedom award winner, Rush Limbaugh. Sadly millions of Americans continue to listen to him!
9
This is a result of extraordinary incompetence and criminal inaction. When you look at stats regarding testing in various countries and compare them with death rates, this crisis is not at all surprising. First, the Trump administration public relations team said it was akin to the flu. That was mostly plausible on the surface because there were so few cases. But then you look at South Korea where was testing, and there were many more cases. Many were mild or asymptomatic but still very capable of spreading to other more vulnerable populations. The death rate was around 5.9% in the US and 0.6% in South Korea. Although there are likely multiple factors that account for that, testing seems highly likely to be the biggest factor. Now, closing the borders is not going to work (if it ever was) because the disease has to be all over the place in the US now, considering the high death rate and the number of rich famous people testing positive.
There is also debate over the cost of the future vaccine. In the US, I frequently avoided going to the doctor because I couldn’t afford it. I probably could not afford US healthcare now.
This should be a time to wonder why basic private healthcare exists. It’s inefficient and bad for nearly all businesses (obviously excluding the healthcare industry). There is not nearly enough criticism of price gouging in the medical industry. Why should basic private healthcare exist? Why should affordable healthcare be denied to anyone?
3
There can be no concerted international cooperation and coordination until Trump is gone. Trump started acting like he was President immediately after the election and before he was sworn in. Maybe that is what needs to be done again.
2
Can America get it together to very quickly produce in mass quantities what is needed to cope with an emergency, what is needed to prevent an economic meltdown ?
Yes. All you have to do to verify that is to check out how quickly we ramped up to provide the planes, tanks, and other armaments needed to fight World War II, how the suddenly very distorted economy was held together. The difference between then and now is the informed leadership by F.D.R. then, and the lack of leadership -- let alone informed leadership -- by Trump now.
5
Economics isn't a science.
Economists aren't scientists.
There are too many variables and unknowns to craft the double-blind/ randomized controlled experimental tests that provide predictable and repeatable results that are the essence of science.
America isn't a business.
America is a nation state.
The President of the United States isn't a businessman.
The President of the United States is the head of government and state.
COVID-19 aka coronavirus is a human biological epidemiology, virology and infectious disease health medical science problem.
3
@Blackmamba
You're wrong.
You're confusing, deliberately, RESEARCH science with SCIENCE in general.
1
Who would want to work with Trump? He breaks deals whenever a whim is upon him and he lies all the time. We are no longer viewed as trustworthy.
5
There will be widespread economic rejoicing when Trump is gone.
Not before.
7
No, we cannot stop a meltdown. “ The Markets “ are the very last to realize the depths of Trumps incompetence. The realization has hit suddenly, and HARD. It’s NOT the Virus, it’s the abysmal leadership. Florida Fritz and his Fake “ team “.
November.
15
Many small businesses will be hurt.
Here's an idea--if you can afford it and you have a favorite business (coffee shop, restaurant, theatre, etc.) that you regularly patronize, but that you will stop patronizing during the duration of the outbreak, consider calling the business and asking if you can make a donation in the amount that you would have ordinarily spent.
Otherwise, we may come thorough this pandemic and find that only the too-big-to-fail businesses are left (Amazon, WalMart, Starbucks, etc.) and that are small vendors are gone.
Perhaps GoFundMe could also be used for this purpose.
1
@Heather you can also order their products by mail/delivery/pickup/online. If it is a coffee shop, buy their beans. If it is a local grocery, order for delivery. If it is a clothing shop, ask to have it shipped or packaged for pickup. If it is open and you are well, patronise it but keep your hygiene game strong. Shop locally even while online
1
The Trump Administration Plan for the Coronavirus Pandemic:
Identification
Quarantine
Mitigation
Hospitalization
Cremation
4
When is the last time the markets crashed and there WASNT a recession or worse?
Under Trump, we are experiencing the greatest plunge in wealth ever experienced — record-breaking in fact. A very strong collapse.
I doubt ant future president will ever be able to outdo the amount of carnage we are now experiencing.
Who wouldn’t want four more years of this?
16
Professor, I'm familiar with some of the contribution you've made in global cooperation through multilateral institutions. However, after a 20 year career with the UN working on global health, international trade, sustainable development, climate change and other challenges, I'm extremely concerned that the damage Trump wrought will take years to mitigate. We have children dying in open refugee camps in winter in the Middle East, a situation that keeps David Milliband and Jan Egeland, two of the leading international civil servants awake at night. Insurmountable challenges in Central Africa aren't even on the headlines. I'm stretching to believe that saving the global economy should be a priority right now. As Greta says human survival is at stake.
7
Post WWII the role of governments changed. It became less about the dominance of countries and more about developing a system that could ensure peace and stability across the globe. The benefits of this new direction is profound and easily recognized if one wishes to credit the source correctly. Many in this country will claim it is the rise of capitalism but honestly much of the advances were directly due to an increased ease with which people could interact and cooperate with each other across many boundaries. The primary narrative though in the past 40 years has not been about cooperation but of domination where money, power and might should be exercised to the betterment of us over them. The economy is now the preeminent concern having lost sight that it is and has always been the people that are most important. We see the running of our government as a game with winners and losers when "our representatives" should be looking out for us instead of their side's ideology not understanding that it is people who are directly effected by their game playing. It is sick and twisted not to take seriously the real dangers to us - spending billions and billions of dollars on weapon systems to protect us from invaders who are not coming while ignoring the more immediate microscopic organisms that may damage our lives far more.
We have forgotten so much and we need to wake up before it is too late.
4
Look no further than the commerce secretary Wilbur Ross who has publicly declared this crisis could be good for American jobs. You know it’s bad when GW is setting the standard.
8
First stop Coronavirus then think about recession . Do not cart before horse. Human beings are dying and it is not the time to think economy.
21
@ASHRAF CHOWDHURY Especially in the US, the economy affects people A LOT. Unless the government implements common sense solutions to prevent companies from laying off scores of workers and offer paid sick leave, the economy may end up mattering more than the virus, since those workers could lose health insurance, not be able to pay bills, etc.
4
@ASHRAF CHOWDHURY Exactly. This is war, and right now, thanks to Trump, Americans are losing.
4
One of the things they must do NOW is to suspend any ICE arrests and deportations. Or at least make hospitals safe zones from ICE.
If we don't encourage illegal immigrants to come in for treatment, our efforts at containment will fail.
14
The Executive Branch has made itself a big part of the global pandemic problem by attempting to politicize a natural catastrophe from the get go and thereby losing all credibility. In the business world such losses would lead to the bank appointing an overseer to liquidate the concern or return it to profitability. The Executive Branch, a bankrupt concern if there ever was one, badly needs an overseer between now and the upcoming election. Barack Obama would do the job very nicely.
2
People can handle the truth. In times of crisis it's vitally important to tell the truth and be transparent. As long as this administration tries to control the narrative to preserve Trump's reelection chances, we'll never know what's really going on. With uncertainty, markets, and people, will continue to swoon.
20
Having spent my career on Wall St., I have hated recent policies from both sides of the political spectrum. Besides circuit breakers which have not worked the obvious solution should have been to ban program trading until sometime in the future- if at all. Clearly the SEC and the Fed and Treasury have never been seriously involved with Wall St. they might start by reading Michael Lewis book on Flash trading.
9
Why try? All efforts will undoubtedly involve more deficit spending and handouts to corporations, to which they are already addicted in this overheated economy.
Let it correct itself.
13
other than the tax bill, trump did little to boost the economy. the momentum was already there. he never failed, however, to take credit for the rising stock market.
every time he speaks, vast volumes of selling appear and the market indexes, representing the underlying stocks, have declined preciputously over the last few weeks.
his words and actions inspire chaos, not confidence.
why isn't he owning up to the reason the markets have declined? is his ego just that big to prevent it. his lies can't bury the facts.
there are plenty of experts. they aren't there to be whipped by trump in his fire and anger. shouldn't he listen to them?
13
@Steve Ell. Steve he has a personality disorder. Malignant narcissism is a personality disorder. He will never own up to him being the cause of a problem, he is actually physically/mentally incapable of it. I have gone through this in my own family and studied it for 6 years now. He will not "grow to be presidential" as some suggest, he will not show true empathy or compassion for peoples circumstances, and he will never ever admit he was wrong. Again he is incapable of it. They work very hard to create their own reality and will die before they let that reality go. This is why you see him say something blatantly untrue with such complete conviction as if it is true, that is because in his reality it IS true. We are on very dangerous ground at this point. I would suggest we look to each other and our local leaders, for you will never get true, honest leadership from the president . Take care of yourself and be safe.
8
The irony of it all.
The very people who have been badmouthing, shrinking and dismantling functional government for years have finally destroyed the very reasons that markets functioned and businesses grew. And now those very people have no serious solutions and moreover no leadership abilities to lead the country and yes, the world out of this predicament.
The stability offered by the United States provided the leadership and protection that often blanketed the world. Yes there was a cost associated with this leadership. Yes, that leadership had to be supported by taxes and expertise - but that expertise, while an expense, was priceless. We had dedicated professionals who diligently worked behind the scenes of government for the payback of a job well done. Deep State indeed.
The people who have been downsizing our government to fit their market based philosophies are not the cause of COVID-19, but they are responsible for the response and lack of leadership exhibited by what is left of the Executive branch of our government.
The old saying rings true today: "They know the cost of everything and the value of nothing."
139
@JD Ripper We, in the rest of the world are no longer looking to the US for solutions and have not since 2016.
5
@David
I understand and we are all the poorer for that.
2
"The lack of willingness to cooperate with others" I quote.
This once latent flaw in our American psyche has been roughly awakened and fed raw meat by none other than the loneliest man in the world who became the president of the great melting pot.
He's simmered us down to a stcky mess not palatable in our global community. He had a lot of help.
The inscrutable spiritual aspect has flown the coop and we are once again adrift; condemned by our own ineria and weak response to a bloody tyrant. So many of will die; mostly the old and infirm.
It is a hard lesson we must learn and learn well because we have so little time to spare. The grains of sand in our hourglass seem to be running out. We've tried the patience of saints, ecosystems, polution fighters, and human rights advocates and champions of justice.
Still the people will not be broken. We will rise to the occasion so much the wiser and stronger. But only by acting now. We need to only do what is right and fair under these trying circumstances.
2
The CDC has officially stated that coronavirus is especially dangerous for those aged 60 and up because infected oldsters are dying or becoming seriously ill much more frequently than those under 60.
It has dawned on me that coronavirus may be used as an excuse to cancel US boomers, you know, those old people who consume an inordinate amount of funds for Medicare, Social Security and a wide range of social services.
Lest you think I am an alarmist, I will point out that top doctors in Italy, which has the highest coronavirus case-load outside of China, have recommended that rather than admit patients on a first-come-first-served basis, hospitals should give ICU and bed priority to those with the highest likelihood of survival—that is, people under 60.
Indeed, this under-60 guideline should apply to all patients needing intensive care treatment and not just those suffering from coronavrius, according to the Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SAARI).
Yes, this recommendation is being made in Italy now, but in a couple of weeks, when US—and New York—hospitals and ICUs start to overflow, the policy will be considered in the US. Actors, politicians and elites over age 60 have the money and power to get preferred treatment for coronavirus; the fate of the rest of us oldsters is up to the vagaries of the virus.
Why hasn’t AARP picked up on this?
4
If I understand the latest figures correctly, if we end up with 10,000,000 cases, there could be 30,000 deaths from the virus alone, and thousands more from overwhelmed health services.
The only priority right now is to slow the spread of the virus to minimize the death count.
1
@Terro O’Brien While I agree with your point, I think you mean more like 100,000 deaths or more. 30,000 would be essentially the same as the seasonal flu or not far off (0.3%). In the future, in retrospect, if the death rate is 0.3%, we will lament causing a global recession through government action since that recession will probably cause more deaths than that indirectly (plus the human suffering). Plus with less spread of virus fear, there'd be less people bothering going to use health services so hospitals wouldn't be as overwhelmed.
But... hindsight is always 20/20, and the death rate should definitely be higher than 0.3%!
2
@Terro O’Brien
Best estimates are that 20% of all cases will require hospitalisation, with 5% requiring intensive care. Depending on the care they receive the current mortality rate is 2-20%
It will become endemic i.e. the entire population will be exposed. Children seem to cope well with infection (1/3 US population?) whilst the elderly do not. Of a total population of 308m you might expect to see hospitalisation of 60m, 15 of which will require intensive care.
Obviously there is a big difference between seeing those cases over 12 weeks or 12 months so delay and isolate if necessary is probably the best way forward.
2
@Daniel The experts are saying millions will get the virus and 20% may have a more severe illness from it. If 1% of 30 million people die that’s a lot of people. They estimate there are 3 hospital beds, that’s regular beds, not critical care beds, per 1000 people. It’s going to be a BIG problem. I hope they can contain this virus before those figures are reality.
1
To instill confidence the President needs to do something he has seldom done in his lifetime. He needs to tell the truth. He needs to get tested for the Covid-19 virus and tell the truth to the American people. The testing is imperative because he has been exposed to a number of people that have been exposed to people who have virus. He loses nothing and gains a lot of credibility.
The virus cannot be swayed by Twitter or lies. The virus is relentless and will expose your weakness. The best thing to do for this president is to come clean.
29
@El Guapo
His telling the truth will only confuse his supporters; they will think that some malevolent forces have finally gotten to him and are forcing him to say things he does not believe. And his opponents will wonder what he is up to now. At this point, the only good thing he could do is ask his cabinet to relieve him and his veep of their offices and let Nancy Pelosi handle things.
4
Chance would be a fine thing.
@El Guapo
Trump is incapable of telling the truth or even grasping the truth. This problem is too complicated for his stunted mental capacities. And he has fired everyone who would tell him the truth. Good grief, he can't even read a speech written by his handlers correctly.
1
Debt - we're swimming in it. Personal, corporate, government debt. Since the Great Recession, huge profits and an asset boom have generated huge amounts of capital, and the owners of that capital have become increasingly reckless in the way they've invested it, lending vast sums to junk debtors who will be mown down in waves if the economy goes into a recession.
Our government has been encouraged to borrow recklessly, increasing the deficit during the goods times when we should have been paying it down. We're not (yet) a junk debtor, but our ability to respond to the gathering crisis will be limited by our foolish behavior over the past three years.
9
@Max Davies
So the world's creditors will have to take a large haircut. What they own are pieces of a soon-to-burst bubble. They knew when they lent the money or bought the debt that what they were dealing with could quickly vanish. The ability or potential to quickly and unexpectedly cease to exist is the mark and sign that something is not really real.
Our creditors had money; they had to find something to buy with it. They could have bought gold and buried it in their backyards or whatever; some did. The gold was and is real, but its value isnt, consisting rather in a group conviction or confidence or illusion or superstition. The world economy rests on "Ya gotta believe!"
Our creditors should have recognized that they had pieces of something of which there was too much for its own good. If they had paid taxes instead, they would have possibly helped create a world with more solid infrastructure and healthier, better educated and trained people, depending on whether the governments that spent these taxes were run to enable maximum profits for entrepreneurs or for some other purpose.
But instead they believed in the reality of the value by which they measured themselves. And this unreal reality is -- surprise, surprise -- just as susceptible to the coronavirus as we are.
4
@sdavidc9
Except the US "creditors" large comprise China.
Yup. It was easy for Trump to antagonize countries and create his own crises. Now we have a crisis that we cannot control and actually need friends for. No one wants to help him.
38
This is the water level dropping to reveal the rock strewn bottom. This IS a recession, and, hopefully there will be a peak to the curve of new infections, globally, within a few weeks.
However, the obvious shortage of (promised!) test kits in this country, along with the requisite lab capacity for test verification, hobbles us, as a country.
The news that China's infections seem to be leveling off is encouraging, if we can trust the data. Still, the apparent global total of infections is below 200K (notable data exclusions: russia and NK). There will be jobs lost, sick time not covered, and our national hospital bed capacity of approx. 1 million beds (of which about 60% are in constant use) means that has to be augmented, so as to flatten the curve of the sick requiring care. We can accomplish this, with the help of National Guard and other military temporary solutions.
So this, too, will pass, but, at this moment, the glaring problem is the lack of test kits, and the lack of information explaining why this problem exists, and exactly what is being done, by whom, to correct it.
Dr. Fauci should be empowered to resurrect the Pandemic Response Team, with adequate funding (the administration is CURRENTLY still seeking to cut the CDC's funding!) included in any emergency legislation.
18
Deep and thoughtful analysis. Omits the most unfortunate endgame...in the absence of coordinated effective remedial government action on an international scale, the collapse of functioning economic and civic systems will will lead to unrest and disorder in the streets.
5
If a recession means that Trump is less likely to get re-elected, then bring it on. I know that sounds awful, but these are dire times.
183
@Katie History speaks otherwise. Before 9/11, after only six months in office, George W. Bush was widely reviled as a do-nothing out of his depth. One appearance at Ground Zero, and some help from Mayor Rudy Giuliani, resulted in popularity propelling George Bush to a second term. Fearful times do not encourage change. I expect Trump's approval rating will go up...
2
@Katie
So, are you volunteering to be laid off? Or are you already retired?
4
@czarnajama
To the contrary, Donald Trump has been telling everyone the stock market is a measure of his presidency, and insisting throughout his impeachment that the robustness of our economy should outweigh the illegality of his actions.
Before we learned of his dismissal of the PDB a month earlier and lying us into the quagmire of the Iraq War a year later, Americans perceived Bush as a decent leader on 9/11, repeatedly noting we were not in a war with Islam, appealing to our national and international sense of unity, and rising above the mix of self-pity, seething resentment and boastfulness that characterize Donald Trump's every glowering statement.
And the initial challenges of the 9/11 attacks and the collapse of the tech bubble before it were not seen as having been caused or exacerbated by Bush's policies or personality, whereas the same cannot be said of Donald Trump's relationship to our economic and international-relations challenges today.
Of course, Bush squandered all of that eventually, and his policies and personality were very much contributors to what we now refer to as the 2007-2009 financial crisis but which, without Democratic supermajorities in Congress and an incoming Democratic leader in Barack Obama, would have been a Global Depression.
21
First off, this is nothing like 2008... Second, the Times' efforts to blame this virus on Donald Trump is absurd... I don't trust the man either but the media is already getting pretty pathetic looking here.... Where is the indignation about how this actually started? Chinese inhumane and vile treatment and consumption of exotic and endangered animals? Its inexcusable.
9
@F. Jozef K. No one is blaming the virus on trump and you trumpians continue to purposely obfuscate that point in bad faith so that you can avoid the reality that trump is being criticized for his response and his actions leading up to it like dismantling our international pandemic response capabilities to spite Obama. We still do not have a robust testing apparatus but he is still citing the numbers as if there is even a slight possibility that they are the least bit accurate. Why tout low numbers without a robust testing apparatus unless you are trying to fool people into thinking the impact is less than it actually is.
14
@F. Jozef K.
I think the emphasis is on Mr. Trump because we have no say on the Chinese dietary practices in question. FWIW, it looks like China has used this opportunity to close those markets (for now) so that stable door has been locked. What remains is the situation here in the US for us to worry about. This is being affected by the lack of data, due to lack of testing and lack of candor.
That in sum is the issue. It would be the same thing if Obama or Bush were President. That said, it is interesting to see how Bush was all macho and pushy when things were going his way, but was a deflated and bored guy when the wars turned bad and the stock market started its crash. Trump is showing the same pattern - it was great to strut and pose when the "gut reactions" he was throwing out there were being massaged and managed by the bureaucracy and the courts to make them work somehow. But this problem cannot be massaged away by "Daddy's friends" (Baker, Gates, etc for Bush) and other father figures. The real President starts showing, pouting and deflated. Apart from the visual of the whole thing, it is disheartening to see this Emperor has no clothes either.
And in case anyone is curious, I liked Bush personally till he started the Iraq War, Trump seemed like an entertaining conman till he started his campaign in 2015 and spread discord. IMO Obama seemed steady-Eddy, sometimes even when a more pushy, macho leadership was needed.
7
@F. Jozef K. This article is not blaming the genesis of the virus on Trump but rather his lack of leadership in trying to control its spread and its impact on the economy. He is clearly not up to the task and all those that thought he could be controlled by the right people in the Cabinet or other leadership positions were proven wrong well before this crisis.
4
Nothing will be easy in the age of trump. And every single stupid Trumper who has thought of nothing other than their 401K for the past 3 years bears the blame. They have sown the wind and now we can all reap the whirlwind of their sacred leader's incompetency.
29
Sounds like business as usual in the Fascist States of America. This is what the Country voted for, incompetence, lies, and profiteering by the Dear Leader, his family, and friends. All at your expense, maybe even your life.
43
And they’re ready to vote him in again.
Our founders picked up muskets
And our history gives us hope
Now it’s our turn to save the species by
Picking up a bar of soap
Wash your hands, sing a song
Find some way to cope
But everyone should come together by
Picking up a bar of soap
3
The elderly are the ones most at risk from the virus.
The elderly are currently the ones losing large chunks of their retirement savings.
The elderly are simultaneously largely responsible for voting this abject fool into office.
Would it be too snarky to say, "Congrats, Grampa." ?
4
@Dave Hitchins Would it be too snarky for me to say "you're wrong"?
14
@Dave Hitchins Blaming doesn't solve anything, even if you're correct in your arguable assumptions. They don't matter.
NOW is the time for clear information, direct action, and a commitment to assist in any way we can, for each other. Unity is required.
4
Better to say: ". . . but they won't be easy with Trump in the White House."
2
We have two key risks: 1) Businesses that collapse due to business disruption, think airlines and hotels; and 2) People that work even though they are sick, spreading the disease.
Businesses should be able to borrow at 2% from their banks to handle any business disruption provided they keep paying their employees, furloughed or otherwise; the banks should be funded by the Fed as necessary for these loans and Uncle Sam should guarantee them.
Companies should be able to file for reimbursement from Uncle Sam for expanded sick pay when there is a declared pandemic.
2
Any country that follows American “leadership” is crazy. And they all know it.
19
With the way things are going we may trying to stop a virus depression.
2
@DC
A bit of advance advice?
The food-producing regions of the country will still eat.
When the country is decimated from the cancel culture, and our commercial transportation delivery systems are broken or unstaffed, how long will the cities and urban centers be able to feed their populations?
Please be careful what you wish for, some of you cheering the deaths of older Americans and celebrating the destruction of cancelling out everyone and everything because of your Trump hatred. He'll still eat, but will you and your children?
1
Trump opens his mouth and wrecks the world. He is not intelligent enough to govern and utterly lacking in compassion so he cannot reassure. Totally self-absorbed so has no understanding of alliances or diplomacy. If the GOP doesn’t yet understand that he must be removed from office, the GOP senate will be complicit in the devastation of life as we know it as well as responsible for the avoidable deaths of many. Democracy will survive because democracy belongs to the people, the governed. We are not consenting.
12
Let the beleagered system crash. I can guarantee your average American wouldn't miss it (except for all of the ones who succumb to Stockholm Syndrome).
2
You can be pretty sure none of this will happen. Welcome to the trump recession.
2
So next year the Democrats will take leadership and be handed a hot mess once again abetted (if not caused by) the Republican inability to govern responsibly. I suppose their wealthy benefactors will still do fine. Medicare for all doesn't sound so ridiculous right now, does it ?
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@Ken
Are you kidding me?
The Democrats' push for a global economy and international borders, plus the media hype, CREATED this "hot mess". You think the country is going to trust Dem leaders like Joe and Nancy and Chuck to fix their mess?
Bernie is the only shot you've got now. Your young people, and women, know it. Biden is not going to be president, not with his track record.
3
@Midway sacrificing the rest of us to cater to the wealthy caused this mess. When the Dems take over there will be spending for infrastructure, a social saftey and environmental + consumer protections. Yes, I prefer Berie's priorities, but at least let's get some fact based decision making.
2
Coronavirus has thrown the world into septic shock, but the real disease is the worship of the market as the source of life's meaning that has been going on since 1980
Trump is the final zombie-mind of this cruel "worship the market god" way of being in the world... and he is the end of this dark path, too.
I think many people knew on some level it was going to take a worldwide shock--perhaps a depression-- for people to put the pursuit of actual happiness for all first again.
We are going to come out of this stronger, when we defeat the malevolent "trumpian" darkness in our national psyche..
...and dust off FDR's Second Bill of Rights, which many people do not even know exists...
Make America Kind Again
38
@stjohner
You don't make America Kind by killing Americans and taking away their presidential voting choices.
You make America kind through shared prosperity and parity amongst US citizens, which Trump continues to work for, even as the Open Borders and International Business crowd tried to judicially bind his hands.
1
When Biden says pandemics are a global problem, he means we need global leadership and concerted action.
When Trump says it’s a global problem, he means “Not my fault, it’s the foreigners.” No concern beyond avoiding blame. Oh, and that we should be happy the US is doing better than Iran. What a slogan for re-election; “Still doing better than Iran!”
49
@Yeah
What if the dems choose to follow a global Iranian leader as our New World Order preferred global leader? Are you voting for that? For outsiders to run our country and economy? Be honest.
So long as the number of Americans made sick or killed by this virus keeps rising, the damage to the economy will worsen, pushing it beyond a recession into a depression. Controlling the spread of this virus is the highest priority.
14
I have NO faith in our government specifically trump and his cabinet of sycophants. The best we can hope for is the democrats win the election and the house and senate. The next 11 months will be bad; I will be relying on my family and community for support. 2021 can’t come soon enough.
173
@Oliver
You're right about relying on family and community support. But that kind of support is the antithesis of our current capitalism where it's everyone for themselves, and everyone by themselves is responsible for how well they're doing. There's even a name for that kind of capitalistic thinking, meritocracy.
If you're looking to community or any entity larger than oneself, you'll have to look outside of our current capitalism. Bernie Sanders is asking us to do that.
3
@Oliver I agree about the importance of a Democratic landslide. But that is not enough. There has been ineffective opposition from the Democratic Party throughout the Trump administration. Not to mention the alarming embrace of authoritarian tendencies in the Republican Party. The Trumpist Party should be punished.
But there has been continuity than has nevertheless been acknowledged between Trump and previous administrations. Trump is a pathological liar, but he exploits real problems when they are to his advantage. The fact that Biden’s son was making 80,000 USD (?) is scandalous even if legal.
Vote Blue. Vote Biden. And then try to transform the Democratic Party from the inside since it’s nearly impossible to get a voice in the Democratic Party. It’s the party that gave at best weak, toothless opposition to the disastrous war in Iraq.
Trump has sociopathic tendencies that make him an existential threat. When your teeth are falling out, you go to the dentist. But you don’t stop at the dentist. You do other things to maintain your health on a day-to-day level. We need to elect Biden and then work hard as possible to gain push the Biden administration to change his F- record on the environment.
Vote Blue. Vote Biden. And work for change. Elections are both exceptionally underrated and exceptionally overrated. Get Biden elected and then push him in a way that will make a more inhabitable planet for youth.
2
Excellent summation of our current problem and needed solutions.
Benjamin Franklin quipped, “we all hang together, or we hang separately”.
Thomas Jefferson’s last line in the Declaration of Independence states, “And for the support of this Declaration, we call upon the protection of Divine Providence, and we pledge to each other, our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor.”
6
The emergency planning, infrastructure, personnel and response to this public health crisis could and should have been in the works more than a month ago. The CDC knew what was coming - and Dr. Fauci speak publicly about what should be done at least as early as February 11 at the Aspen Institute.
Instead, our ‘President’ and his ‘surrogates’ were spouting conspiracy theories; calling the Covid-19 epidemic a ‘hoax,’ just as every challenge this ‘President’ has faced has been labeled a ‘witch hunt’ and a ‘hoax.’ Brilliant ‘scientists’ like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity called Covid-19 ‘the common cold’ — while people were already dying of the disease overseas. They had our ‘President’s’ ear; not Dr. Fauci and the other experienced, competent, knowledgable public servants in our own government and in the world’s health organizations.
We are now precious weeks behind the curve - and the bill we will pay for allowing the idiocracy to take charge of our government has fallen due.
Trump’s address to the nation and the world last night revealed a feeble, frightened, confused and desperate little man with no clue how to react to a real crisis - one that cannot be met with insults, bombast and scapegoating to pander to a mob.
Although he not in power at the moment, in a few brief remarks Mr. Biden was able to clear the air, command attention, and convey more resolve, truthful information and credibility than Trump ever could muster.
Emperor Trump isn’t wearing any clothes.
31
@chambolle
You will not be able to find any video of the President calling this a hoax.
This is the kind of manufactured angst that fanatical opponents of President Trump revel in.
The NY Times is definitely overreacting to this disease.
This is not a pandemic, not yet. It is simply an outbreak of a new virus.
There aren't enough cases, and certainly not enough deaths to call it a pandemic.
An average of over 100 people die, every day, in car accidents in the U.S. We should close down the highways!
We haven't lost 100, total, to this new virus.
When did we start freaking out like this, over nothing?
I think it's really the media sensationalizing everything, just to create anxiety. They think people will vote for a Democrat, if they can blame a disease on Trump...ridiculous.
5
@Peter Rasmussen
The point is to prevent a pandemic. That's why the NBA and NCAA have acted as they have. If it's not a pandemic it's still not nothing.
Read your comment in two weeks and see whether you are right.
5
@Peter Rasmussen Hmmm, wonder how easy it is to be tested in Mt right now? And what threshold of deaths is enough for you to declare a pandemic?
4
Trump had White House meetings on coronavirus this week classified, so public health officials and scientists without security clearance were not able to attend. Nothing more needs to be said about his capacity for effective leadership.
62
“Ill blows the wind that benefits no one”. As robust as our economy supposedly was going into this health-now-economic crisis, too many people exist only paycheck to paycheck. I’m thinking of minimum wage workers, gig economy “employees” and people recently graduated with school loans. I’m afraid this will only widen the inequality gap that now only gets papered over in boom times.
7
According to David Leonhardt's column today, the Feds did not ramp up manufacturing testing kits because it would have necessitated a change in bureaucracy. In addition, the Feds could have eased regulations for labs to come up with their own test, but they chose not to do so. This is mind blowing and a complete lack of leadership. Yet, according to Fox, Trump is a strong leader who is doing a great job. I think the president owes America transparency and should tell us whether or not he has the virus. He is at an vulnerable age and takes several medicines, and the last few days several people that he has met with have tested positive.
8
I don't know what budget Trump plans to raid. Why not have the rich pay from their interest payments that they currently hide in other countries? Then, we can claw back some of the money for dividends they will make on pharma stocks. After all, the COVID-19 tests costs $1000 a piece or more for people without insurance and perhaps a $100 co-pay for those who do have insurance.
26
Systemic changes that should have been years ago would have made a difference: universal or vastly more affordable and accessible health care being the most obvious one. But also building and keeping a truly robust economy for all, not just the few would mean as more resilient economy. Strong federal agencies would have made a difference. It's impossible to know the impact of the elimination of the White Office related to pandemics or the failure to appoint top leadership at the CDC or the cuts to the CDC budget, but it likely contributed to the slow and rather botched response especially to testing.
11
There is no effective limit to the Fed's actions, they can add money at whim. The Bank of Japan's balance sheet is now equal to about 80% of that country's GDP. If the Fed did that, then it would wind up owning all of the Federal Government's outstanding debt, freeing up $15 trillion for current bondholders to invest elsewhere and allowing the government to borrow interest free.
Trump is right to be badgering the Fed, because they definitely are not powerless.
1
There is a fundamental problem with our economy that this crisis is laying bare: it's a "trickle down" economy. It's built to serve the top and not the bottom interests, which is why there is an ocean of wealth at the upper tiers, but at the lower tiers - where the "fuel" for the economic engine comes from - it's starved. Therefore, measures directed at helping Wall St. and Corporate America will not do anything to resolve this. Nor will payroll tax cuts - memo to Trump: a cut in payroll taxes does NOTHING to help someone who gets laid off!
To address this crisis, two things have to happen, a short term and a long term solution.
Short term, money needs to be directed, NOT to the top, but to the bottom. Unemployment payments need to be increased to cover the amount of lost pay, without a cap. Right now, weekly unemployment checks are capped so that if you earn $800.00 or more a week, you're losing that additional pay. Also, the length of time needs to be expanded to say 2 years. Deferment of loans should be granted without any penalties. Immediate coverage by Medicaid for anyone without health insurance. These are just a few things to be done now.
Long term, we need to undo "trickle down" and get back to a system that shares the wealth equitably. We need to penalize offshoring of production of goods and services and incentivize doing that here, thus increasing good jobs and wages.
The 1% has been feasting too long on the carcass of the 99%, and that has to end now.
89
@Kingfish52 What about a trickle up economy.
1
@Chris Yep! That's the idea!
@Chris
Now that's just silly. Everyone knows that the economy is driven by gravity!
Millions of people are about to be laid off. The luckier amongst us will be working at home, and spending very little. It's started already here in Seattle.
The key to averting a complete meltdown is to ensure that everyone (including "gig contractors" who should never have been classified as contractors, and self-employed people) continues to receive their incomes. That requires a massive federal expenditure, which is completely do-able through borrowing, given that interest rates are near zero.
Medicare and medicaid eligibility need to be expanded, as people will begin to lose their healthcare benefits. State Obamacare exchanges need to open for new enrollees.
The guiding "common sense" for the last 4 decades (coming from those who have benefited by their lopsided accrual of wealth) has been, "Look out for Number One" However, all of us will make it through this with the least amount of pain if we act as a society with an ethos of human solidarity and generosity.
52
@Kraig "The guiding "common sense" for the last 4 decades (coming from those who have benefited by their lopsided accrual of wealth) has been, "Look out for Number One.
Thank you Chicago School. I'm always incredulous when Milton Friedman is hailed as some sort of hero. His policies just don't work. Look no further than South America in the 70's and 80's.
10
I just watched Biden’s speech. It was forceful, with concrete prescriptions to combat the crisis we face. The contrast with Trump’s 11 minute rambling last night could not be more stark. People are looking for nothing more than assurance that our federal government is on top of things and will soon stem the tide. But how can that happen when Trump and his Republican ideologues have hollowed out the government and those who would work the best in this crisis. This is the final nail in the coffin for Trump.
174
@Greg a,
Biden has no idea how to address this. He just has better speech writers and listens to them: and, that could be all the difference in leadership.
9
@Rocketscientist — this is not rocket science. We judge people by those they choose to work with as well as the quality of their own work. Trump fails on both counts even if you agree with him that he’s a “stable genius.”
2
@Rocketscientist
And you know this how?
Republicans do not want the public to have any confidence in the government, nor do it's supporters want any confidence in the government. That is why they elected Trump and McConnell. Now is the perfect time to demonstrate that the government can't do anything right, that they can only make things worse, by crippling all efforts to help the American people. This is a crisis that the GOP can't afford to miss, even if it means a few hundred thousand die and the economy collapses.
59
@David I am not sure it is always purposeful, but I do think you’ve identified why Republican politicians often don’t face negative consequences when the government is ineffective. Ineffective government fits with the narrative of the Republican base, so inadequate governance is shrugged off by their voters in a way Democratic voters don’t accept.
16
Concerted enlightened action in this fractious time seems a pipe dream. For the US, as in the late 1920s and early 1930s, effective political action will await a new administration. In the meantime, expect a very bumpy ride.
65
Milton Friedman had the answer - drop money from helicopters.
Give funds to individuals, businesses, and governments. Even call it "Yang's Guaranteed Income" if you like. Just be sure that when the crisis is over you stop the flow.
7
@graybeard shortage of cash is not the problem. It is shortage of demand. That is where stimulus should be targeted. Ideally through efforts that also contribute to halting and treating for the virus.
4
@john True, people are not willing to go to stores where they can possibly get infected but at the same time online places are price gouging everyone. This morn on Amazon 12 rolls of Scott 1000 TP was 60 bucks, are you kidding me. Nothing will happen to stop this as we have Barr as the AG, so I have just stopped buying anything at all, have plenty to not have to leave the house for nearly a year if necessary.
9
@John Graybeard
Not sure if this sarcasm (if it was, stop reading), but this is exactly the opposite of Milton Friedman's theories. Trump is following the Chicago School of thought to a T - provide "relief" to private entities (corporations), NOT the proletariat, and let the weak fail.
15
If democrats take control we could stop a recession but with Republicans fighting and refusing to do a realistic stimulus, doubtful.
33
You are right that international cooperation on all levels is the best approach. Unfortunately, Trump’s antagonist and arrogant behavior preclude it. He didn’t even consult with foreign leaders before declaring on Wednesday night that he was imposing severe travel restrictions from Europe. Speaking of which, isn’t it curious that he excluded the UK from the rest of Europe even though they face coronavirus too? For that matter, how about Asia, Australia and every other part of the globe facing the shared crisis?
95
@NM UK is not part of the EU, so not a surprise - what is a surprise is Ireland is excluded and they are.
And Trump already stopped travel from China and Iran, two other hot spots. I don't doubt South Korea is soon.
It is not Trump's fault the EU can't agree on what to do - their own governments are refusing to cooperate with each other.
1
@Paul It's obvious to me that the only reason Trump excluded the UK was to try to throw a lifeline to his buddy Boris Johnson. There is no rhyme or reason to what Trump says. And we should be surprised??
49
@Paul you're right, that is out of his jurisdiction. Trump's failure is in him not focusing on the health of the American people but rather the health of the economy. I'm no genius here but when the markets are tanking, sports leagues are suspending, schools are closing and conventions are being cancelled then that ship has sailed. Take care of your citizens' health and the markets will eventually recover. He's got November 2020 on the front of his mind and is looking for a quick $$$ fix.
16