Joe Biden's campaign was only "almost dead" because the biased "experts" said it was. Iowa and New Hampshire meant nothing, and should be relegated to insignificance in all future elections. The country was never ready to embrace a "revolution". (If it was, we would have AOC's winning all over the country in 2018, not just in one ultra-liberal district in NY). Biden was always going to win this because it's the Democratic Party, not the Socialist Party. The Corona Virus didn't do Bernie in, he never really had chance.
9
The rest of the field COLLUDED - not "consolidated". The Republican party just isn't this corrupt, it seems.
6
A. Not true. B. Hopefully the last line will apply to the Trump Presidency in November.
1
I think the novel coronavirus has made people more anxious to get Trump out of office, we know he is in wayyy over his head. Therefore the votes for Biden. Biden will hire competent people and regroup with our allies in a global effort to beat this virus back. Trump's ego and incompetence can get a lot of people killed.
6
Fiddlesticks. Joe won SC and swept through super Tuesday states before most Americans woke up to the virus threat. Bernie torpedoed himself by being...well, being Bernie. He's a radical conscientiously peddling radical solutions. Democratic voters simply are not buying what Bernie is selling. The virus has nothing to do with it.
11
...He ( Sanders ) was vanquished only by an act of God. And so will be D.J. Trump !
Joe owes Representatives Clyburn and the black vote a lot. They led the way on this election.
If Joe wins (I’m sure Trump will use this and scaremonger and race bait), Joe owes them big time for making his 35 year run for the presidency come true. What can he do for them? It’s a NOTORIOUS BIG IOU.
3
It's not clear to me why Ross Douthat is obsessed with instructing the Democratic Party on its behavior and circumstances. The primary source of the nation's decay and degradation is the Republican Party and the conservative movement that has informed and directed party's rhetoric and policies for more than half a century. As a card carrying member of this movement, Douthat would do well to focus on the dangerous shortcomings of his own tribe and refrain from analyzing and advising others. How has it come to be that the party and movement that Douthat and his fellow conservative intellectuals have championed has done so much damage to America's spirit and standing? Until he can begin to answer that question, Douthat would better serve his readers (and his own credibility) by leaving discussions about Democrats to others.
13
"Biden’s link to Barack Obama, in particular, gave him an insuperable advantage"
I propose Barack Obama as Biden's Vice Presidential running mate.
What could go wrong?
Revisionist history: watch it happen here!
4
I would say that Mike Bloomberg's entry into the race consolidated the minds of moderate progressives. Klobuchar had momentum coming out of Nevada, as as a 60 year old incisive moderate woman competing against two late 70 year old white males.
Instead, in comes Bloomberg gunning for a contested convention that would annoint him as the can-do guy with a sub-context of saying to supporters of the rest of the field:
1.) Women can't win, and with me as your candidate the me-too movement dies, too.
2.) Hey you LGBT Dems, don't think the gay guy win.
3.) Hey you African Americans, what a shame that Harris and Booker ran out of money when I entered the field. At least you had Obama. Too bad his trusty side kick Biden is getting even more forgetful than he used to and didn't I apologize 5 weeks ago for my stop & frisk policy?
4.) Oh you Bernie supporters, you are young & naive, Just watch the establishment Dems rally to a white billionaire over your progressive hero. (And thank you for not endorsing Warren over Sanders so I won't have to listen to her debate attacks after Super Tuesday.)
Opps, Clyburn endorsed Biden to propel him to a huge South Carolina win, Buttigieg & Klobuchar quit the race and joined Texas O'Rourke on a stage to ensure Biden won Texas to offset Bernie's big win in California. Warren strategically waited until I quit the debate stage before she quit. Then Booker &Harris waited until Michigan to ensure Biden invites Sanders all of the above into his cabinet.
1
@DefeatSauronLordoftheRing
It is about time to get rid of Sauron “Trump” who has 0 ethics and worships greed.
1
This might be the first time I actually agree with Ross Douthat.
2
As an Independent disgusted with Mr. Trump, I have long had concerns about Mr. Biden. I see an old line, big smile politician who craves attention and says a lot of goofy things in that pursuit. The goal is to remove Mr. Trump, and no, I don't think Sen. Sanders is a better choice for that. But it looks like Mr. Biden is the choice of the Democrats, and I do see a trump card (pun intended) in his favor. Mr. Bloomberg will back him with nearly unlimited resources, honoring his pledge to support whoever the Dems nominate in order to remove Mr. Trump. I am optimistic. Next step: Mr. Biden's VP choice could be a big factor.
3
It's not a done deal yet, Ross. Still a lot of states left to vote. Still a few debates left for Biden to put his entire leg in his mouth. I haven't voted yet, and you can be sure it won't be for milk-toast Biden and his good-for-nothing policies. Sanders 2020.
5
Sanders is losing because we were all wrong: the Democratic Party has moved to the center, not the left.
This has been staring us in the face since the first Virginia Blue Wave of 2017, when Democrats overcame voter suppression and gerrymandering to come within one state senate seat of controlling the state executive and legislative branches. It became even clearer in the second Virginia Blue Wave, when one long-time Republican House District after another fell. There should have been no doubt after the third wave of last fall, when state Democrats easily finished what they started in 2017.
The Blue Wave was the fruit of years of organizing and of the turn of the Republican Party to the populist right. Virginia Democrats showed no interest in the populist left, instead filling the center-right vacuum by turning to the center-left. That the rest of the Democratic Party is following the same path should come as no surprise.
8
It is not time for an obituary for Senator Sanders, my hero over many, many years. I remember him when I lived in Burlington in the 1970s. As a single parent, his approach and views resonated with me. Though I had to leave Vermont to make more money, I've always gone back as I loved the state and have many friends there. I am sad today - the Democratic Party clearly has no room for me. I will always vote, but will change my registration to independent if Biden becomes the candidate.
4
Good grief. The last thing Senator Sander needs is yet another thing to blame his poor showing on. He has already blamed it on, among others, Senator Warren, an establishment conspiracy, his own younger voters, the primary rules (which he contributed to and agreed on), the biased media.
8
Interesting article. But it forgets to mention one very significant thing that helped to swing the votes in Joe Biden's favor, and that's the across the board consolidated support he's been receiving from the African-American community, one of the most stalwart groups you can find within the Democratic Party -- and that has to do with more than the fact that he was Obama's Vice President, as most people like to think.
In fact the pollsters and pundits scoffed several weeks ago when Biden spoke of his "Firewall" in South Carolina.
Now, several wins later they aren't scoffing anymore.
And Sanders has only himself to blame that he wasn't part of it, even though he's had 4 years to recalibrate his message to the Black community after losing in that very state in 2016.
Instead he continued to focus on his core of youthful voters, white working-class and of late, Latinos -- all of whom came out in varying degrees, while he continued to harangue moderate Democrats as members of "the establishment".
And while it's admirable that he's trudging on, and even planning to take part in the upcoming debate, it's all over for Sanders.
He just hasn't noticed yet.
But the voters have.
11
What does Russia do to its political prisoners? We seem rather cozy with them right now thanks to Putin having something on Trump. The GOP, party of Reagan, who long considered them our #1 geopolitical enemy, capitulated virtually overnight.
What about China? Our politicians and corner suite executives outsourced millions of solid middle class jobs there in the name of cheap labor and higher stock prices. Never mind the millions of jobs that were lost.
What about Saudi Arabia? The feds won't release the results of the 9/11 commission in the name of national security. Kind of implies that the Saudis were behind the whole thing. But we already knew that.
What about all the right-wing dictatorships in Central and South America that we helped support, fearing communist takeovers? Any comment on their political prisoners?
No, it's all about Cuba. An insignificant island of 11 million people, no real threat to the USA. Despite the incessant shrieking of those who fled to south Florida.
I'm no fan of Castro or communism, but for a pinko nation boy do they make terrific cigars and coffee.
3
It is incredible that you give mind space to a divine reason for Sanders's demise. This is an age of science and that age clearly indicates this virus was a result of continued ignorance in play in China. If anything is learned from this pandemic, it should be that a country like china touting the highest math and science achievement grades should be excluded from world trade unless universally acceptable food and livestock preparation standards are maintained. We do not need a deity to prevent another cross over disease. We need countries to demand better scientific living or limit trade with them. As for Bernie, his stubbornness and lack of flexibility to see a bigger picture has been his undoing. Perhaps he and China are the same in that they refuse to listen to anyone else because, well, you know, they are always right even if their stance is out of balance and overlooks data.
10
The rapid reversal of fortunes had nothing to do with Coronavirus; not an act of God. Democratic Party elites decided Bernie was way to toxic. Maintaining hold of the House and claim on the Senate were perceived as nil with Sanders as the head of the ticket. The timed withdrawals and rapid endorsements were orchestrated. Not due to nCoV19.
1
Biden will be a competent president who will pick competent people to run things. He will listen to experts and delegate well. His messaging will be positive and helpful. He's one of the people running who I would like to see in office when a crisis comes.
10
"Joe Biden Beat Bernie Sanders. But So Did the Pandemic.
It’s the coronavirus election now."
Nice try at spinning a story. And creating another false narrative du jour. And somehow yoking together the words "Biden," "Sanders," and "coronavirusa" as if all three are somehow related to each other... Guilt by association?
To the extent they are somehow related, perhaps that's because US voters have finally decided that administrative competence and a willingness to try to govern in the public interest is preferable to a person like Trump whose manifest incompetence is on display daily with this crisis and who also continues to spout disinformation and outright lies on an ongoing basis.
Instead of governing , Trump spends time touting his "hunch" that the WHO's 3.4 percent death statistic "is really a false number," complains about sick ship passengers being allowed off a ship because "I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," and appoints the well-known science and health expert Mike Pence to lead our nation's response to a deadly pandemic.
10
Sanders is almost certainly not going to be the nominee. That's hard, but we all have had big disappointments in life.
He does, however, have the chance to make history by being a passionate voice in getting rid of the worst and most dangerous President since our nation's founding.
12
Actually, Sanders isn't being vanquished by any act of god but by the voters.
5
It's way too soon to write off Bernie Sanders.
Joe Biden still needs to get the 1991 delegates to gain the nomination on the first ballot. This seems highly unlikely, if Bernie stays in the race.
The media go on and on about how many STATES Biden is winning, but that's not what counts. It's DELEGATES that the candidates are trying to accumulate.
A lot can happen between now and the Democratic convention in July. Biden could self-destruct. Bernie could win a brokered convention.
6
And lightning could strike them both at the same time too.
2
Biden was the early front runner for a reason; most Democrats thought he would be the best choice to beat Trump. It was a question of time for Biden to find his footing and for the other candidates to stumble or wear out their flavor of the week status. The race turned out as it was supposed to, not because of a virus, but because of Trump.
5
Since trump's hunch is worth more than the opinion of any 1,000 world class microbiologists, we can take comfort in the fact that coronavirus pandemic can not possibly have any significant impact on the Democratic primaries.
2
No leader has had much influence on the spread of the COVID-19 virus. There's really nothing much that can be done on the national level. Shutting down the country of Italy may work, but it's doubtful. Sad as it is, the epidemic will rage on.
Politics has little to do with it. Those who make this political do us all a disservice. People like Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx are far from political people. They must lead the way, as they are, no matter who is president.
1
Biden along with every powerful established interest with a large financial stake in the status quo beat Sanders, not the coronavirus or God.
If Sanders has been beaten, it was because of money and greed, not the coronavirus.
At this point, I doubt I'll be voting in November.
3
“But Sanders supporters can take a cold sort of comfort from the fact that … Sanders didn’t lose the race because of his choices. He was vanquished only by an act of God.”
We can also take warm comfort from the fact that, even in defeat, Bernie Sanders has transformed the American political landscape, pulling it notably to the left and challenging long-held ethical and practical assumptions about the American way. I predict these changes will be durable, as “baby steps” rather than the “leaps” that today's new progressives imagined. Sanders’ accomplishment is a remarkable testament to the potential power of sticking with one’s beliefs through thick and thin. He did America proud; he has my everlasting gratitude.
5
Most likely, there were many factors. The ones Mr. Douthat describes. But also:
- Lessons learnt from the Republican primary that lead to Trump winning and specifically, the need to narrow the field early if you don't want to surrender to a radical candidate; and
- The fact that Sanders is by nature and choice, an antagonistic figure. He didn't just want to win (a person that does shows some flexibility), he wanted to ram his victory down the throats of a vanquished large moderate Democratic voting group. That lead to almost every single candidate that dropped off to endorse Biden, echoing Hillary's statement about how no one in politics likes Sanders. Perhaps most emphatically from the single candidate who didn't endorse anyone--the thundering silence of Elizabeth Warren.
Sanders is now going into a blame everyone but himself mode. Let's see if he too has learnt anything from 2016.
59
@Elmago - The least graceful loser in recent history is Hillary Clinton. She was horrid during her 2008 primary loss and horrid during her 2016 general election loss. She set the bar so low for graciousness that I don’t doubt Sanders can clear it.
7
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders represent two extremes of the political spectrum. Both in their own way make you feel uneasy. The fact is Sander's candidature would make Trump's reelection bid a lot easier. Hence, it would be better if Sanders withdraws as early as possible and endorses Biden's candidature so that the Democrats can put up a united front against the formidable Trump.
54
I doubt Joe Biden's leap forward to frontrunner had little to do with the coronavirus. It had everything to do with beating Trump this coming November. Donald Trump is the number one nemesis of the Democrats, and the voters feel Joe Biden has the best chance to beat him.
715
@cherrylog754 Yes, this is precisely correct. Biden, once he completely seals the deal, will need to choose a strong and enrgetic VP that can carry the freight. They will have the task of converting 2016 Trump voters to make the switch. The country is now wize to the ways of Trump and he is beatable with a solid ticket.
44
@cherrylog754 For months, I've been wondering how conservative columnists- especially Douthat- were going to try to distance themselves from Trump. How could they have been so wrong at every turn, how could they continue their apologetics, how could they have wasted their platforms and their reputations by never holding Trump responsible for ANYTHING?
It's an interesting dance.
Today, we get Douthat's strategy for this conundrum. "I won't have to take responsibility- the coronavirus gives me a chance to slip out the back door while people are preoccupied."
37
@cherrylog754 The coronavirus was undoubtedly a factor in the Primary from Super Tuesday on. It ramped up our national insecurity, particularly among Democratic-leaning voters (who are the majority) who fear the effects of a chaotic and radical Trump presidency.
The promise by Sanders of a revolution (cue the Beatles tune) was not the right pitch for the moment among many voters who are tired of chaos. Biden, in his Super Tuesday speech and again after this Tuesday's primaries, came across as soothing and assured, just right for voters rattled by Trump and the coronavirus.
20
Who knows what history will say about this election. But it is indeed true that: "History is mostly guessing; the rest is prejudice." Myself, I don't think the country was ready for a socialist as president, and there was no serious candidate left but Joe Biden.
37
@John Smithson
Conservatives have been winning because they think long-term, think strategically and think pragmatically. We can learn from them. The Conservative strategist Grover Norquist quelled the concerns of conservative Republicans about Mitt Romney saying, "We are not auditioning for a fearless leader. We don't need a President to tell us in what direction to go. We know what direction to go. We just need a President to sign this stuff." At issue is whose stuff the President will sign. The Federalist Society or the ACLU? Evangelical Christians or Planned Parenthood? The list goes on. I make my point.
6
Don't count Bernie out yet. There are over half the delegates yet to be awarded and if that fails there is always a third party run option for Bernie Sanders.
19
And how would a third party run benefit anyone other than Trump, Bernie, and a handful of supporters that worship him in a manner that resembles cult-like devotion?
34
@Richard From Massachusetts: Each state is a costly legal process for any novel political party to get a candidate onto the state's ballot for one election.
3
How is this going to help anything or anyone but the okupa in the White House? Sanders followers need to grow up and think through what is best for the country and themselves in the long run, rather than have tantrums and be as shortsighted this time as they were in 2016. The stakes are much higher this time around if that is possible to imagine at this point.
21
Pray that the true believers are pragmatic and show up in November.
27
Every democratic candidate is qualified, decent and would not embarrass the US. In a year when any blue will do- we had a rich slate to choose from which separated the vote. Sanders was never ahead of the moderates, never in the majority.
I have so much Hope now. For the first time in four years I can breathe.
84
@Deirdre I completely agree, and thank you for posting this. Every Dem candidate was a decent, thoughtful human being. I am reminded of the, frankly, dreadful choices that the Republican Party offered up before the 2016 presidential election, when, in their infinite wisdom, they picked the foulest choice of all.
12
Bernie loses by an act of God. The same God I assume that inspires the evangelists to refer to Trump as the “chosen” one. Which means god and his wily ways must be hankering for a Trump-Biden showdown. What’s thousands of dead people when it delivers such drama. God is great!
I wasn't sure which conservative/Republican columnist would come up with a fantastical reason for Joe Biden's success in two successive huge primary rounds, and I'm grateful Ross Douthat hasn't disappointed me.
According to RD, it wasn't Biden's own history & character that got him those victories; it wasn't even the widespread fear & hatred of Donald Trump.
No. It was...the coronavirus. It was a *force majeure," an Act of Nature. In other words, according to RD, Democratic voters are too ignorant, or stupid, to choose a candidate. They need a pandemic to help them.
Just in case any Democrats out there have forgotten, Ross Douthat (or David Brooks or Bret Stephens) is not on your side. Not today, not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, not ever. Beware of wolves in sheep's clothing.
7
As the virus worsens, Trump is going to embrace it, declare an emergency because of it, postpone the election and declare himself the supreme leader.
2
Biden surged because voters are reacting to the continual chaos that is Trump and his administration. Although many voters may like some of Sanders' views, the majority clearly do not subscribe to the far left tenets and do not believe this election is the time for a revolution.
9
Douthat: "Sanders didn’t lose the race because of his choices. He was vanquished only by an act of God."
The coronavirus as an act of God? Is that what Douthat primarily or entirely means by act of God here? If so, strange act of God that it has to pass through Italy first, or did it pass through Italy to inform the Pope that it was on the way to wreck Sander's campaign? Maybe Douthat can clarify with an Act of God column on his next outing.
2
I have read a number of explanations for the Biden return from the dead, but this one by Douthat has to be most inane I have read. The idea that the vote in South Carolina and the consolidation of the moderate democratic candidates was somehow linked to the Corona virus is laughable. Indeed, much of the voting took place before it really reached the epidemic level we see today.
So, I would suggest that those conservatives thinking that Biden won as an 'act of god' should look at other explanations starting with the total contempt for Trump as president as a source of agency. This contempt, combined with the many weaknesses that Bernie Sanders has, seems to has led to a wave which I believe will dominate the 2020 election.
4
@Daniel F.
Plenty of Democrats believe that Trump was elected through a likewise improbable "foreign interference" that seems to have only affected Hillary's Blue Wall.
Instead of accepting (and respecting) that plenty of voters rejected Hillary's platform, and that the DNC nomination process is not representative of general election behavior, they need to grasp at straws and strawmen.
When Sanders was winning the early states, the politicos were rife with innuendo that his supporters were not genuine, and yet again Russian stooges, Nazis, white supremacists, and so on.
If anyone seems to have contempt for 40%+ of their voter base, it's certainly the "moderate" Democrats. Good luck winning with that in November.
COVID-19 will be gone by June/July as vaccines will long be developed by then.
1
I’m not surprised Sanders and Warren have faded. I’m one of many who will Vote for whoever ends up running against Trump. That does need to be our 1st goal.
But Ross Douthat and much of the media need, for the good of the presidential election and the good of the Democratic Party, to state the facts. Douthat:” The rest of the field did consolidate, suddenly and surprisingly around.......Biden”. IF Ross was surprised by this, he is out of touch with U.S. politics and should read the Times, WAPO and watch MSNBC.
After Nevada, Warren was little threat once her “wealth tax” concept and her healthcare costs for 10 YEARS was criticized and Lobbyists helped write the op-eds and columns.......leaving Sanders. His winning, clearly was a threat to many......though most said he’d never accomplish any of his policies. Most thought he could/would lose to Trump. The Donor class and much of the party leaders had something to offer those who dropped out. Anyone but Sanders was the topic. After Biden won S. Carolina ( a red state), Wall Street opened their Wallets as the Times said. It was over. Most saw this coming. I’m 72, so yes, no surprise.
The takeaway for the voters, party and country should be: Warren and Sanders MAY have been the wrong people ( at obviously ) the wrong time. We’ll never know if either would have won. Their ideas and visions need to stay as our priorities.
3
Occam's razor: Sanders was vanquished by someone with a veritably more popular message.
4
Why make things so complicated? The electorate simply couldn’t stand Hillary Clinton. The electorate can accept Joe Biden. End of story.
5
If journalism is a first draft of history, this needs to be rewritten. This confuses the time frame of what happened and skims over just how quickly events changed. Biden's turnaround in South Carolina preceded widespread concerns about the coronavirus and represented instead a strong statement by the Democratic Party's most loyal constituency, African Americans, that they are not in the mood for a socialist revolution, they just want out of the White House a man who is actively stirring up racial animus. Once Biden notched an overwhelming victory, which other moderates in the race could not do, then the predominant sentiment within the party congealed around Biden. The coronavirus has confirmed that sentiment -- that basic competence in government is more desirable than wholesale change -- but that was not the initial impetus.
3
Sanders wins if he does these five things:
1) show people, with clear math and charts if necessary, that his health care plan will cost America less per capita than we currently pay while covering more (refute Biden's accusation of 35 trillion in costs emphatically)
2) reverse student debt, in large part due to a wealth tax
3) repeatedly insist and demonstrate how another four years of Trump would hurt this country badly
4) reach out to black voters with town halls, specific plans for their benefit, and with a clear supply of broken promises by Donald Trump to the poor and working class
5) smile a little more often to soften his image and talk about plans to build unity, instead of appearing not to care and appearing like a bit of a dictator himself; humor is a winner
2
The coronavirus pandemic is the second-largest issue of the election this year behind the mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic response by Donald Trump and his cult followers.
It is the final determinative factor that will elect Joe Biden as our next president, flip the Senate to Democratic control, increase the size of the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and wipe out Republicans at the State and Local government levels. A complete realignment thanks to Donald Trump and his cult followers.
Hey Republicans. Don't forget to express your gratitude to Donald Trump on your way out the door.
5
Narrative fantasies and speculation sometimes sound so plausible. That's what makes them accurate, right? No data is needed. That empirical stuff is for sissies :-)
1
I voted for Joe Biden but not enthusiastically. Regarding the headline to this piece: I don't think Joe Biden beat Bernie Sanders. I think Bernie Sanders beat Bernie Sanders.
5
Max Boot argues in the Washington Post today that likability is the determinant, and Bernie was not likable this time around. I won't say I didn't vote for him this time because of it (I had other reasons) but I was cognizant of not really wanting to listen to his rants any more. Even though I agree with his diagnosis of the problem.
2
If Sanders were smart, and able to put his ego aside for a day or two....
The smart move right now, since Sanders insists that his campaign is not about him, but his ideals for America, would be to sit down with Biden and hammer out an agreement as to how to proceed with Biden at the top of the ticket and Sanders as VP... and move quickly into a unified campaign against Trump.
While no VP pick by any winning candidate would satisfy all voters, my suggestion gives voters what they are asking for in Biden (someone who can put Trump back in his gold tower in NY), while giving Sanders a platform as VP to push for a range of more progressive policies and moves within Congress.
The one tangle here... Democrats need to increase their majority in the House and retake the senate, or it is all just a paper exercise... because we know from the Obama tenure that McConnell has no qualms about strangling government until there is again a republican in the white house.
If anything shows the value of the Warren/Sanders Health Plan it IS the coronovirus epidemic.
With the system we have now many people will not be covered to have tests, will not have treatment or hospitalizations covered without big deductibles, co pays etc
When will the US have the courage to support a system which most Western countries adopted many years ago?
2
Ross wrote: Is it possible to harmonize the two stories? To some extent: One can say that Sanders’s factional strategy enabled the Biden comeback, and that the coronavirus ratified it; one can say that, absent the coronavirus, Sanders could have extended the race for another month, but without a plan to expand beyond his true believers he still would have ultimately lost.
Essentially correct in my view. COVID-19 simply galvanized voters faster than normal primary mechanics would have on it's own. That said... the outcome will be the same regardless of COVID-19.
If anything... COVID-19 has put Trump on the defensive for the rest of the election cycle in 2020. That helps any eventual candidate on the Democrat ticket.
Sanders very definitely blew it coming out of the Nevada win... thinking and acting like he had a lock on the primary season and therefore concluding he did not need to reassure and draw in the wider population of Democrat primary voters. This is NOT the first time Sanders has blown it in this regard.. and it speaks to some very serious blind spots in his personality and approach to campaigning.
3
Covid has destroyed Biden. He has nothing to say about the epidemic, at least nothing worth quoting.
Without Covid, his Hubert Humphrey-style claim to the majority of delegates might have stuck. Now, no. He is merely betting that his response to Covid would have been better than Trump's.
Hopefully, Covid has destroyed Trump too since he not only lacked an intelligent response to Covid, he maintained that Covid could be contained by concealment.
1
If Sanders was vanquished only by an act of God, so too may be President Trump, or by his Administration's reaction to that same act of God.
1
You give Sanders way too much credit. Biden did not move decisively ahead of Sanders because of some miracle. Rather, the diverse American public finally got a chance to speak their mind. Iowa and Nevada, with their very exclusionary caucuses, didn’t represent much of anybody. New Hampshire, where a primary took place instead of a caucus, is not known as a state with a diverse population. If you needed help getting around, if you lost pay for attending an hours long event, if you didn’t want to share your vote by standing with others instead of having privacy, you were not at your state’s caucus.
Democrats and many Republicans are petrified of another term for Trump. And most Americans know Joe Biden. He is honest, hardworking, dignified and respectful. Sanders is self absorbed, cranky, judgmental and humorless. It’s his way or the highway. He’s never been any different, and he cannot win against Trump. Some would even say his self centered attitude is rivaled only by Trump himself. Given the opportunity to vote in a primary, people turned out in droves to cast a vote for a moderate instead of a nut job. We’ve already got one of those.
5
Meh. Coronavirus cases are growing exponentially and so is the public attention. It was the S.C. primary, coupled with the Amy/Pete/Beto endorsement. I understand Douthat is paid to have opinions, but there’s no need to over complicate this.
1
Bernie is a demagogue. For the sake of our Country and the Democratic party he should bow out gracefully and join Biden to beat Trump. Debating Joe on Sunday exposes that the demagogue's ego, like Trump's, rules supreme.
3
Well said. It's nice to get a longer view for a change, caught up as so many of us are in trying to cope with the rising hysteria, incompetence and cruelty of trump and co. Sanders made a huge contribution,and I salute him. I also beg him and his supporters to get behind Biden, no matter how painful it feels.
“I think it is time for us to shut this primary down, it is time for us to cancel the rest of these debates."
No way, Jose'.
This will actually hurt Biden who needs the Democratic primary more than Sanders. Either Biden gets his clock cleaned now by Sanders, or he gets it cleaned later by Trump. Better to do it now by a nicer guy.
1
I really hoped this time around that Bernie would do best by the country, endorse Biden and rally against DJT. He even said as much over last weekend to Madow. But here we are again, and Bernie is exhibiting that he only cares about himself and not the country. He is NOT stepping down and going forward with the debate, etc.
2
I doubt the virus had much effect on the election. Or rather, it was certainly on people's minds during the vote, but I don't think the effect was asynchronous, benefiting one more than the other.
In truth, Bernie followers likely thought it bolstered the case for Medicare for all, and Biden followers likely pointed to his experience during other epidemics.
I rather doubt any independent voters switched to one or the other by asking "who would I rather have handling COVID-19".
No, I think Biden beat Bernie because 1) the entire Democrat establishment seemed to completely and rather suddenly coalesce behind Biden as the "safest" candidate, and 2) Bernie failed to expand much beyond his base, and didn't turn out all those legions of new voters he claims would help him beat Trump.
Biden beat Bernie in the same way one politician beats any other - by convincing more voters (and in some cases, many more voters) that they are the best candidate. I doubt the current situation would be any different if the virus didn't exist at all.
2
Biden appears to be the Dems' response to the GOP's embrace of Trump. Why not embrace the practical alternative to more of the same?
Bernie was vanquished by voters. Plain and simple Bernie did not get the votes.
It's this failure to get votes that has always been the Achilles heel of the American Left.
We've failed to get the votes at the ballot box and on the floor of the legislatures.
For the left getting the votes is the singular imperative and that takes steady progress and living up to promises. One of the reasons we have Trump is the number of voters who don't believe the left (defined in its time) has delivered on the promises of the programs.
So let's not offer fig leaves to a real problem.
Get the votes, get the policies, deliver the goods (rinse and repeat).
1
This make or break for Bernie and his supporters. They can cry "fowl" stating his losses were due to the "elite establishment" but that would puzzle, if not annoy the South Carolina voters. Or they can help Biden win. I dare them to put country first!
1
Democratic primary voters prefer Biden. It's not that somehow he'd do a better job at combating the Coronavirus than Sanders. It's mostly that they think he's the strongest candidate to defeat Trump. But all you have to do is watch medleys of Biden's embarrassing and incoherent ramblings and his memory lapses to wonder whether they're right. Which is not to say Trump doesn't have the same issues. Which is it, a continuing scary Trumpian revolution or the (no doubt temporary) restoration of a tired, disfunctional pre-Trump past?
Reality Principle time. There is now no path for Bernie. Even if Biden dropped out, there is now more than enough excuse for the super-delegates to move in the direction of whatever revived candidacy should appear. The Bernie candidacy was predicated on overwhelming participation of new and young voter turnout, and that simply has not happened. Reality bites, but it is still Reality. Therefore, it is time to revert to the #1 objective, and that is to get DJT out of office. Approached from that primary directive, Bernie now needs to drop out (perhaps negotiating single-payer healthcare or some other big issue as the official party platform as part of the exit) and give Joe Biden a rest. Let's be honest folks, the more time Joe Biden has to spend in the scrutinizing spotlight, the LESS likely he is to be able to defeat DJT in November. Hence, give him a rest, keep him away from microphones and cameras as much as possible, and turn the public face of things over to more capable surrogates for anything and everything except what just absolutely must be handled by Biden himself. We get DJT out of office first, and then the remnants of the true Progressives in the Dem Party can have time to regroup and decide if we want to try again with the Dems or to move in a different direction together. But from now until November (or January '21 actually) we cannot lose sight of the #1 objective, to take DJT out of office.
2
Uh, nope. Sanders in 2016 got a lot of white males who didn't like Hillary. Add those to the "youth" and the pundits mistook this for a "movement." Sanders did too. There was never any movement. His ceiling was a lot lower than anyone realized and when Hillary was not on the ticket, he only won early on this year because the Democratic base was split. So, that's it and it was there before covid. Biden is winning now because the base is no longer split. Boring reasons are usually the right ones, but they don't employ a lot of pundits.
3
I know I have heard one or more of the candidates give back handed praise to the Chinese, at least recognizing their miracle of economic progress. Certainly, I never heard any stinging denunciation of the People's Republic from any of them.
Despite the way they torture and/or execute political prisoners.
Despite the internment camps for the Uighurs.
The only thing wrong with Sanders' remarks is that we failed to exploit the Cubans for cheap labor over the past decades. That would have made everything OK!
1
@zauhar: China remains the only country in the world to recognize that overpopulation impoverishes nations and destroys ecosystems. Many Uighurs reject its low birth rate policy, which has incurred the intervention of the Han majority.
Sorry Ross I disagree. The voters that turned out and will turn out in this primary decided they wanted Biden - the known entity vs. Sanders who does not know the meaning of the word compromise and would destroy the down ballot elections for Congress. Despite what all the pundits said and analyzed it is we, the voters, that decided we wanted Biden and told everyone so, starting with South Carolina.
3
Covid-19 will expose in stark contrast the joke the US calls a safety net when compared to most other industrialized nations. Increasing numbers of Americans survive, barely, working two to four jobs in a gig economy. Jobs that have no sick days, no health insurance, no unemployment insurance, nothing to help the millions that are likely to be affected, directly or indirectly, by Covid-19. People nearing retirement with already insufficient savings are watching their retirement drift away into Neverland as the market plummets, and the Trump administration and the GOP explore cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
In the last forty years we've gone from a society that cares about its neighbors (even if only just) to every person for himself. Contrast that with other nations that have an actual safety net. Your well-being in those countries actually matters. As a society (literally), we're a joke. As a collection of survivalists living within a common border, there's a good chance many will not survive, and even more will neither care nor lift a finger to help.
5
@CS: The US never democratized the features of federal representation demanded by slave states to join the original union. Liberty to enslave still abides.
I call bull on the act of God.
Joe Biden has lived through multiple epidemic crisis. Just that label grants him credibility.
Second single payer Medicare model looks awesome. I suggest every Democrat running in the election nail the Republicans as "anti-health of country" crowd.
But history is contingent. Small events, both if they happen and if they don't happen, can have outsize effects on the future.
Imagine a very plausible alternative course of events: Biden gets just 4000 votes fewer in Nevada. And that means he ends a very distant fourth to Sanders, behind Pete and Warren, and a bit above Steyer. With a fourth in Nevada, following fourth place in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, does Clyburn endorse him and pave the way to a resounding victory in South Carolina? Or does he, like the Culinary Union and Harry Reid in Nevada, stay mum and endorse no one? Does it start a "flight to safety" for Bloomberg (despite Warren's evisceration of him), which would almost certainly lead to Sanders winning on a narrow plurality in a fragmented field?
Who knows. But if true, the historical certainty implied in Ross's column would have been derailed by a mere handful of Nevada voters.
Sad to say but this analysis is right on except for some of the embroidery about Bernie's tactical errors. I had assumed that if Biden were to get the nomination, we'd face a rerun of 2016 and four more years of Trump, but with the spread of the coronavirus, the deep dive of the stock market, and the coming economic crisis, Trump appears to be dead meat, regardless of who is put up against him. Unfortunately, reluctant to face the nation's enduring problems and grasping for a security blanket, the voters went for Biden, said over and over by the media to assure Establishment continuity and a better hope of unseating the embarrassment in the White House. That insecure but still comfortable suburbanites could follow that course is unsurprising but that the black citizens of Michigan, who have been treated as badly as poor of Central American by the bi-partisan US Establishment, could follow them on that security blanket hunt is the biggest shock of the campaign. Good luck America.
1
Sanders adopted the Marxist myth that the working class would welcome him as their liberator. In fact most of his supporters were young people many of whom were college students or recent graduates.
The outcome of the Michigan primary suggested Sanders lack of appeal to that states industrial workers. The idea that Sanders spoke for anywhere near a majority of workers is the same delusion voiced by Marxists since Marx. The Marxist savior, before rescuing the oppressed, must first persuade them of their oppression.
No, the Bloomberg team wanted to beat Sanders. It is Bloomberg that built and pre-loaded the Biden bandwagon which overtook Sanders on Super Tuesday. The Bloomberg team was inserted into the race for the sole purpose of preventing a Sanders presidency.
4
I see that many count Sanders as already out and believing that Biden is too big to fail.
But as an European progressive, one that tend to read
both sides of the press, end of the spectres ones as well, I believe that Dems are living currently in magical thinking reality. According to most, decency is back, Sanders is out, Trump is beaten and Biden is already in the WH. The things going wrong with that fantasy stretch of time are numerous. And I have watched the videos of Biden many wishfully consider a fraud, but the reality is that they are not. I am sorry to ask that, this is your country and your story and history. But the world has suffered 4 years already, if Biden gets the nomination, Democratic Party will lose. For the moment liberal press is blindsiding the issue and many vote believing the man they chose is the one have seen along Obama in the good years.
But the cracks are not beginning, they are in a final stage. No Republican or independent voter, not some of the Democrats will vote for Biden when the public attention fully turns on every move he makes. 1mn speeches will not be sufficient. There are two options seen from where I am sitting, either Biden get to be replaced before final nomination or Trump wins as there is no chance for Biden to win after the degree of his decline is unwillingly revealed. I cannot believe that Dems voters are so tired and despairing as to not
see the issue for what it is, a presidential bid dealbreaker par excellence.
2
I am a Republican who will vote for Biden.
1
Not one "pick" supporting Sanders aside from telling his supporters the need to support Biden.
That's basically 2016 on repeat.
2
The virus did not make a difference.
This year, Democrats are largely one issue voters and that issue is "Beat Trump". Across the nation, Democrats voted based on their prediction about what the swing state voters would do in November.
In South Carolina, Biden's association with Obama won him African American vote and proved that he had control of that essential portion of the Democratic electorate.
Meanwhile, Bernie's literacy comments revealed something about him, i.e. that he is willing to see positives in socialism or communism that many Americans are unwilling to look at.
People may have appreciated his honesty, or idealism, but did not feel this would play well in the swing states.
Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out, freeing more moderate votes.
And, then, we heard Hillary say that nobody likes Sanders right before Biden got endorsements from multiple opponents.
At that point, it became more difficiult to believe that Sanders would outperform Biden in the swing states in November. The votes went accordingly.
The virus had nothing to do with it. In fact, my suspicion is that's it's going to help Trump. It may turn out that his administration does enough things right (after a poor start) that he will end up looking more competent than he does now.
3
@RickP
You cannot beat Trump without a platform.
You cannot beat Trump on a campaign of "decency" when you're repeatedly caught insulting voters, challenging them to fights, and basically being the opposite of decent.
Biden can win some support from Sanders voters. He should come out strongly, this week, against stimulus proposals that bail out big business and Wall Street.
He should speak to the outrageous debt burden carried by so many younger people, and how the efforts of 2009 to save the economy from free fall disproportionately helped the rich and big business and resulted in far too many ordinary people being foreclosed on and forced into bankruptcy (BKs made more difficult by his support for that vile bankruptcy bill).
We are not a Wall Street-worshiping, triangulating party anymore, and Joe Biden needs to realize this. We don't stand with Alan Simpson types as they blast "entitlement spending" and say it's brave to cut SSN and Medicare benefits, while saying nothing about bloated military budgets.
It's not just the young people who feel strongly about this -- and it's not just Sanders supporters. He needs to frame Democratic progressivism as it's felt and believed in by Democratic voters today. I'm glad for Obamacare; it's better than nothing, and it's a life-saver for many. But for me personally it's a plastic card in my pocket that costs me $600/month. I cant afford the "out of pocket" on top of that, so I don't actually get healthcare. I have some disaster insurance. Expensive disaster insurance. Thanks, but let's do better. Crowing about Obamacare isn't going to get Joe elected. I hope he realizes this.
1
Yes, besides fighting Coronavirus, the electorate did not want the travail of a complete overhaul of the federal government at this time. The Coronavirus was a factor, as was the consolidation of power around the withdrawal of all the other centrist candidates within a week.
Now we see a Coronavirus general election for Trump. He has to explain dismantling of the Affordable Care Act and replacing it with nothing in the face of the virus.
Trump has to explain cutting costs by removal of the epidemics post on the National Security Council. In 2018, Trump fired Tom Bossert, whose job as homeland on the NSC included coordinating the response to global pandemics. There were other public health coordinators who were shown the door.
This is no ordinary Recession we are heading into. It involves supply of goods and services, not just demand. Hence, monetary and fiscal stimulus might enhance demand, but if there are no parts for factories, no goods on shelves or on Amazon, and a dearth of air and hotel reservations, the economy will go almost dormant.
That could possibly produce a Depression. Then we will need things like the Green New Deal, as a new age FDR program. And the people will say, "If we have medical care during a pandemic, it's only right and fair we have it all the time."
Trump and his conservative ideas will not wash in the face of a pandemic. The citizenry will look to government to lead.
The Coronavirus means the end of Trump also.
5
Biden is winning because he was always going to win. He is the candidate most likely to beat trump, and this has been reinforced by polling. I am not surprised at all by his trajectory, neither are any of my friends or family members. The media got ahead of themselves declaring Sanders the presumptive candidate after Iowa and New Hampshire. The majority of voters acknowledge how important this election is, and are going to vote in a way that reflects that understanding.
Act of God? This was an act of biology. Also an act of the Chinese custom of eating randomly captured wild animals which are bought and sold (sometimes alive) in open "wet markets" where everyday shoppers prod and poke cuts of meat displayed on open tables. Since the "novel viruses" (against which we have no immunity) typically cross from animals to humans, that kind of market is tailor-made to generate new plagues.
2
What? Sanders ‘theory of the race’ was he would bring in a new wave of YOUNG first time voters. Biden would get first dibs on the olds.
Cue COVID19 that we’re told spare youth. What happened? Biden won the olds...and non-Bernie bro youths...and he he WON EVERY COUNTY in Michigan.
Bernie is a brittle, humorless ideologue...from Liberty Union to Dem Socialsts and AOC. Humorless and clueless.
Hmm, let's not blame God for weird Chinese eating habits and the powerful desire of the mainstream media to spread panic in order to defeat Donald Trump.
3
Does anyone notice that the entire leadership of the U.S. is beginning to resemble the age demographic of Iran?
The VP of Iran has covid19. So does their health minister (go on YouTube and watch his TV appearances). The key advisor to the Ayatollah is dead. 25 members of Iran's legislature is sick with covid19 (there may be more now because that information is weeks old).
1
Bernie needs to unite his supporters & work to defeat Trump. Period.
1
The virus beat Biden. The economy was begging for an excuse to cool off. Trump economic policies have not helped. But now Trump can blame the recession on the virus
Your "cold comfort" for Bernie supporters is terrible advice. Teams that beat themselves either take the opportunity to understand why they fell short and make needed changes, or blame circumstances beyond their control and do nothing different. Bernie has now beaten himself twice, and he (and his bros) would certainly lose again given the opportunity, coronavirus or no.
Ross: With all respect this is pure poppycock. The seeds of Sanders undoing were sown long before the virus captured the national consciousness. Electability was his kryptonite. Against a more mainstream GOP candidate his message may have flown further, but not against Trump. The cult of his personality is too entrenched. Who then could give the multitudes of moderate voters (who actually do vote) in both parties a place to go? Not Sanders, who seemed to write them off as certainly as did Trump. It is time for Sanders to show that he cares more about the country than himself and close ranks around Biden. We simply cannot afford four more years of Trump’s malign administration. He, as Mike Bloomberg has done, needs to campaign for change, for Biden. Not necessarily the extent of change he wanted, but change nonetheless, and the better for our country.
2
You've been taken in by your own fictions. Supposedly, Sanders was in the lead, had the momentum, while Biden's team was struggling, and then, Biden made a comeback. Nonsense. Biden has always been the front runner. The media proclaimed Sanders the candidate to beat on the basis of two primaries, Iowa and New Hampshire, atypical states whose populations are mostly white. He had 30 delegates, when he needed nearly 2,000. Yet the media all gave him a commanding lead and wrote off Biden. If, at the end of the first inning, the Yankees are leading 1-0, would you write they have a commanding lead and that the other team was on the verge of giving up? Here, the media's penchant for turning data into a story misled all of you.
2
Sanders lost because it was quite obvious the deck was stacked against him from the beginning. I did not leave the democratic party, it left me!
4
"insanely truculent argument", right on the money.
Bernie's supporters love him for his consistency. This they shout, this is how a politician should behave.
There's a reason why successful politicians don't display such consistency--it leads to lost elections.
Study the career of FDR. He changed course any number of times, responding to events, realizing that a given policy wasn't working and driving his opponents nuts.
Oh, horsefeathers, Mr. Bouie. I've voted Democratic since Gene McCarthy (look him up) and he was more progressive than Biden, then, and now. Biden said straight out the other night that he'd veto any M4A bill that came to him if he were President. He's on record as wanting to cut Social Security, and climate change, well, any action on that would offend his fossil fuel donors, and we don't want that, do we?
No, Biden's not progressive, Mr. Bouie, which clearly suits you just fine, but not me, not by a long shot. If we're all lucky, Biden won't name Jamie Dimond or Bloomberg as his VP, Mbut the Democratic Party and it's leadership ate clearly out of the neo-Republican closet, so who knows?
So now the coronavirus epidemic gets credit for Bernie Sanders' defeat.
Well, that just goes to show that there's a silver lining behind every cloud!
1
To even more deeply understand what's going on with the electorate, now and in 2016, read Edsall's column. Long but meaty and really interesting!
I support the progressive platform of Warren and Sanders. I just didn't think that Sanders had a chance of getting it implemented. I thought Warren had a better chance for many reasons. As we see the votes come in it appears that many of the 2016 votes for Sanders were really against Hillary.
I hope the Biden momentum continues through November. Instead of getting rid of Obamacare, it can be expanded to include everyone. M4A may eventually happen, but it would have failed in 2021 because there are very few progressives in congress, and unlikely to have enough Democrats in both houses. For those who really care about the people who won't have any medical coverage at all under Trump, this is a much better option. I don't think you can claim to care about these people and not vote for the eventual nominee, probably Biden.
2
We don't want more chaos, and Sanders, with his extreme ideas would cause terrible disruption. Can you imagine what the stock market would do if we eliminated a huge sector of our economy, the private health care system? Safety and sanity is what this Democrat wants and that is Biden.
2
I do not agree with the thesis put forward that the corona virus changed minds. There was no panic or even much fear when Biden won South Carolina, and won it big. It was the black turnout which changed the game. No Democrat can win without it and the Democrats know that. Also, the big win there and the numbers of the sub groups voting for Biden reassured Democrats that he could not only beat Bernie, but also beat Trump. It has only been in the last few days that there has been panic over corona virus.
2
The virus defeated Sanders in another way. The first head to head debate between Biden and Sanders was canceled over fears of contagion. With his increasingly odd stumbles signaling to many the likely onset of dementia, not just a stuttering problem, Biden probably would not have survived this debate. I will of course vote for Biden in November if Sanders doesn't pull out the nomination, since Trump not only shows signs of dementia himself, but is "demented" in other ways. Now that Sanders has stayed in the race for the time being, there is to be another debate where he can make his case, and show that the whole "electability" argument has stood in his way merely because it has been strategically repeated so very many times that people accept it as consensus, without question. Think about it. People do want his progressive values, and he is at this point much sharper than his opponent, and much more prepared to take on Donald Trump. That is electability.
What’s the value of proposing this revisionist history early? The narrative that, but for the Coronavirus, Sanders would have won the nomination may catch on, but we know right now that moderates set aside their differences to support a common candidate before it was clear the Coronavirus was going to expand out of control.
I'll go you one better and say that history will tell us that the early 21st century global political disruptions were caused by the stresses of the impacts of climate change on already existing tensions.
1
Good column.
Only one comment, cosmological in nature--either nothing is an act of God, or everything must be, including Sanders' truculence.
1
History doesn't like to keep things simple! Some of the most problematic histories are one-dimensional. As an example, consider the dominant narrative of the civil rights movement; at its worst, "Parks sat, King stood and Obama got elected." The federal government helps African Americans to defeat injustice by racist Southern states. No space is left for post-King movements such as the Black Panther Party or contemporary movements against police shootings and mass incarceration such as Black Lives Matter. No space is left for histories of de-facto racism in the North throughout the 20th century, where African Americans were denied access to unions. I would recommend Jeanne Theoharis' "A More Beautiful and Terrible History" for any wishing to see the urgency of a complex, uncomfortable history as it relates to civil rights.
History should be complex; otherwise, it becomes narrative-building.
What a self-righteous, anti-science column. Ross is the embodiment of the ignorance of the republican cult that cannot govern on facts.
The reason that these greedy monarchists will be washed out of office in November.
2
coronavirus does not care about elections and attacks all of us. it is the trumpovirus election. will trumpovirus destroy what is left of democracy, after the farce that the senate impeachment trial was, once and for all, or will america overcome it ? will democracy survive in america and in the world,or, will fascist dictators and communists take over across the globe ?
1
America had this one chance in a lifetime to climb from under this stinking dog pile of big business interests and reform itself and it didn't.
4
Your narratives leave out the easy and simplest one:
People got sick of Trump's lies. Coronavirus just was just the last straw.
5
I remember the hurricane victim in the Florida Panhandle who turned against Trump because “he was hurting the wrong people.” Maybe the disastrous mishandling of Coronavirus will create hundreds of thousands of newly “woke” imbeciles stitched from the same cloth.
1
Hmm. The interpretation of the primary results that Mr. Douthat describes as "the pundits' version" appears to be well-supported by all kinds of empirical evidence - something he readily acknowledges.
His theory about the ongoing pandemic driving the voters to "safer" choices is... well, interesting, but a bit lacking, in the underlying evidence department.
If anything, based on the exit polls from last night, Bernie Sanders appears to have done surprisingly well among the voters who made their choice at the very last minute.
The Pangolin done it for you. God speed, Joe!
1
Mr. Douthat does a sub par job of trying to cast this election as the "corona virus election". Everyone knows this election is about removing a far more insidious germ. He knows it too.
4
Ross D, you are clever and intelligent, and also very decent. You do seem however to lack a kind of intellectual common sense. You’re sort of a pleasant intellectual dreamer. I like you, and would love to discuss at length all manner of things. It would be great fun. You’d be a wonderful, gracious, and fascinating house guest. But I am unable to take you completely seriously.
If that's the case, then Biden beats Trump in a landslide.
Biggest boast to Biden was Amy, Pete and Mike leaving the race, if they did not the 30% that Bennie has would have kept him in the lead of a fractured field
3
The pundits were the ones blah-blahing about Sanders's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. We voters were sitting back and saying. "Let's see what happens on Super Tuesday. That will show what a reasonable proportion of a cross section of the party thinks."
And I "wasted" my early vote on a candidate who dropped out just before March 3. And I don't regret my vote, and I don't regret the outcome.
If this is the coronavirus election, and the public is fleeing for safety, which explains Bidens's sudden rise, going forward the public will judge leadership on how it contains the virus. And the examples will start locally. The public school superintendent in suburban WA who boldly closed a whole district for weeks, Inslee who plans on bans of large groups, quarantines in suburban New York -- how will these decisions be judged and who will rise from the ashes of the coronavirus as a true leader. It certainly will not be Trump. What will Biden's message be? Will he have the courage to say the uncomfortable messages? More than any other time we need a leader with conviction and courage. Not one who will hedge with the political winds after the fact. Sadly, I see Biden more of a reactionary, a follower, not a courageous leader. Take his Anita Hill stance and his vote on the Iraq war; Biden was spineless and lacked all vision and courage. What did Maya Angelou say? Once someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time. The Dems are coalescing around Biden out a fear. This is a mistake, given the stakes.
3
Ross -
To your column today, well: maybe. But Coronavirus wasn't dominating our newsfeeds ahead of the South Carolina and Super Tuesday primaries. Consolidation of moderates provided Joe the Momentum.
Of course, when the Coronavirus Zombies write our history that nuance may be lost.
1
"He was vanquished by an act of God."
No, in my opinion, he was vanquished by the unprecedented and incredibly selfless and patriotic acts of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar to suspend their campaigns BEFORE the Super Tuesday primary. The appellation "Honorable" should henceforth and always be appended to their names.
1
True to form, Bernie and his backers could never stop from mocking and demonizing Democrats who were not with Bernie 100 percent on every issue. Thus he is, was and always will be a niche candidate. Democrats, unlike GOP trump led lemmings, are wildly diverse and famously fractious. Sanders and his true believers seem constitutionally incapable of understanding this fact.
4
A prediction: The first time Joe threatens to take DJT behind the bleachers and punch him, it's all over but the stomping. And gods help us if the one-eyed pony-whatever is trotted out again.
I dread, literally dread, the coming debates. I am going to concede that it's Biden who has carried the day, but those in that camp had also better be able to concede that thus far he's been a terrible, uninspiring, and often bizarre debater.
There needs to be an entire team working with him round the clock to get him into shape to go into the ring. And now I think I'll go sedate myself until next December. Wake me up if and only if the clown show that currently occupies the White House has permanently decamped (I share Bill Maher's fears on this one).
1
I think this is correct. My first absolute turn towards Biden was a couple of weeks ago. It was the question: Who would you trust most as president in a pandemic? My answer was Biden without a doubt.
1
But Ross since you mention Acts of God, could we hear a bit more?
For instance, is the coronavirus merely a product of a blind evolutionary process? Or was it created by God specifically for this moment, perhaps as a trial for humanity in furtherance of His Plan? Or did He even create it specifically to derail Bernie Sanders (with those who suffered in China, Iran and elsewhere just collateral damage)?
More generally, does the Lord intervene in human affairs, in your view? A miracle here, a virus there? Enlighten us, please.
..."And had it worked, Sanders, like Trump before him, would have taken over a national political party on his own terms, conceding nothing to existing power brokers"
HUH????
Trump conceding nothing to The Religious Conservatives who are in control of Republican social party? You're kidding, right? He is completely bent his social leanings in order not to be impeached by his own party and Pence installed in his place. Years before his campaign started he was pro choice and middle of the road on LGBT rights. Now look at him and the Judges the Heritage Foundation has been able to install in life time positions to wreck havoc.
Ross - please stop analyzing Democrats through a partisan lens. This isn't about the virus. It's about an incredibly uninspiring, cranky, Castro loving loser who did not have a realistic plan for America. Goals, hopes, and dreams are great and there is a place for them but we need someone who can actually get something done. The virus is now. Bernie had no plan and Mediacre for All didn't change that. We need a doer, not a ranter. And we need someone who doesn't confuse a college rally with registered voters.
World War III is here. We just have to figure out if the enemy is the Corona Virus or our fellow citizens who do not agree with us. The external players like Isis and North Korea have taken a back seat to our internal issues. Corona may wipe out Kim’s empire or decimate the other groups.
And it isn’t just about Biden now. It is about putting some one in place as VP who can do the heavy lifting it will take to lead the country after Biden.
Recall that in “War of the Worlds”, the invaders were destroyed not by the defenders, but by pathogens.
It will be ironic if Trumpism is destroyed by a virus.
2
Are we still going to maintain the fiction that white blue collar males in Michigan and Minnesota voted for Bernie in 2016 because they were Democratic Socialists? The result for Biden was as predictable as the rain in Seattle, those boys couldn't vote for Clinton, whose policies are nearly identical to Biden's. Might be that the right wing blogosphere spent millions raining slime and vitriol, might be the never-ending investigations and rumors the GOP rolled around in the mud for years rubbing on themselves or it just might be cuz she didn't have a Y chromosome. The reason Joe won when Hillary didn't is obvious and it would be nice if a few columnists said so.
3
Yes, the coronavirus played a role. The gross mismanagement, lies, and misinformation that are still ongoing, so crystallized Americans' minds on the point that it has become the final straw. But it is still only a sub-plot to the main plot of removing Trump and his sycophants, which has been evident for months now. That is the only thing that matters now.
I may very well be wrong, but Joe Biden seems to me to be fading from even the dim brilliance that he had. I don't think his handlers are letting him loose so we can see his real shape.
It reminds me of when Bob Mueller testified before Congress and it became clear that he was a senile and addled old man, and that his team had hidden that. Joe Biden has not reached nearly that level, but the man certainly seems to have lost more than just a step.
The Mormon church has had many problems over the years from its practice of putting very old men in its presidency. The current occupant is 95 years old, and when he took office he was already 93. His predecessor was senile his whole time in office, but that was kept somewhat hidden and never acknowledged.
Do we really want a president like Joe Biden? Even though Bernie Sanders is a little older than Joe Biden, the two men are very different in their mental capacity. Mike Bloomberg too is sharp as he ever is. Donald Trump is a little harder to tell, but he seems much the same.
Let's hope for the best, but we better plan for the worst.
1
Sounds like the GOP is setting up excuses for Trump's loss in November.
Ross is wrong. He wants to blame Sanders apparent downfall on a pandemic but the only fear out here in liberal land is of more Trump. Period. Biden may benefit from Trumps monumental ineptitude regarding the virus but do not be fooled, the pandemic will pass, Trump I'm not so sure. Fear of Trump is and will continue to drive all liberals of every depth. Vote Blue!
1
The coronavirus, with its stealth, unpredictability, imperviousness to human suffering, lack of empathy, compassion or other human traits and ability to infect everything it touches is a force that operates like Trump -- a sort of "Trump incarnate" --, but with real results and consequences for everyday people. Faced with such a foe, Trump, out of pure narcissistic delusion and denial, chose to try to be "more Trump" and hope it would go away. This lunatic behavior in the face of a life and death crisis caused many people to drop ideological qualms and flee to safety, and will cause Trump's defeat in November.
There's a third way of looking at the Biden "surge." It was (orchestrated by the Obama machine and the old Dem pols. And if that view prevails, there are going to be a lot of unmotivated Bernie bros who won't support Biden and will instead stay home in November.
Also, the the virus will probably have run its first year course by the time October rolls around and a mini-boom will return. And Trump won't agree to let Joe sit down through the debates. Nor will Hunter's and Joe's corruption go away (see, Hillary's futile denial of the email scandal). Further, Joe's dementia will become even more pronounced over the next few months. I don't think the electorate will vote for Joe to be in charge of his own memory care unit, much less the US.
1
Sanders is losing because people understand that though his goals are good he that he has to be able to implement. He has no history of putting these ideas into practice. And he is a divisive character at a time when we need to pull as many people together as possible to rid us of the would be autocrat in the white house and his corrupt cronies.
As is often the case the voters are looking at this situation and making the right calculation.
1
This analysis ignores an important fact: that Sanders did much more poorly in the early primaries than he did four years ago--an indication that his support had waned well before the coronavirus was on everyone's mind.
Look at New Hampshire. Running against Clinton four years ago, Bernie got 60% of the vote. Running against a larger and more diverse field this year, he got 29% of the vote. News reports focused on the fact that he "won," but failed to note that he was not receiving anywhere near the support he got last time.
There are several possible explanations. One is that a good deal of Sanders' support last time was actually an "anti-Hillary" vote. Or it could be that people felt safe in supporting Sanders when they thought the alternative was a Clinton presidency, but now that the re-election of Trump is a real (perhaps likely) possibility, a protest vote seems an unjustifiable luxury.
The coronavirus probably helped Biden because it reminded voters that there can be dire consequences to electing a corrupt, incompetent person who can't be trusted to tell the truth or act in anyone's interest but his own. But Sanders' support in 2020 was never what it was in 2016, and when the field consolidated around a more centrist candidate, Bernie was done.
1
The 'Democratic establishment' is a somewhat nebulous congregation of self deceiving, personal self interest paired with the larger force of institutional, meat grinding corporate dictums. Sounds like the mainstream media now that I think about it.
3
The author is overthinking the situation. Biden would be where he is without the pandemic. Sanders' platform and image are too radical for the swing voters needed to defeat Trump and the majority of Democrats know it. Sanders' campaign has been an exciting flirtation with policies that would greatly benefit the country but that does not imply Sanders is the better candidate. Across the aisle, the Republicans have no problem exploiting the distinction between the right policy and the best electoral strategy, which is how they stay in power against the best interests of the electorate.
5
Ross Douthat, getting it wrong again. Bernie lost Super Tuesday and yesterday's primaries for the same reasons he lost the candidacy in 2016. He's not a good candidate. We don't need to continually complicate this very simple concept.
7
Patti O'Connor, I agree. In 2016 when Bernie Sanders surged from obscurity to challenge Hillary Clinton for the nomination, I was surprised. He seemed such a quirky candidate. But looking back I think it was just a way for those who hated Hillary to register their displeasure. That dynamic wasn't in play this year, so Bernie went back to being quirky.
4
While Biden wasn't my first choice, neither was Sanders, not even close. I voted for Biden over Sanders and Warren because I felt he had the best chance of beating trump in November. Priority #1, trump has got to go.
6
I think 'safe' is what has us in this moment when we desperately need change but America is really really bad at change. Especially when the status quo sees so many interests making money hand over fist. And lets not forget: the catastrophe isn't coming; it's already here. Millions of people world wide are already being affected by climate change. Millions will be on the march. 140 million Americans are living in poverty or right on the edge. 'safe' is not winning the day for Democracy or for the future. My kids get it. Why can't establishment Democrats?
7
@E's Kindergarten So your kids are responsible for running a household?
Nice try, Mr. Douthat, but Bernie has been losing because he's Bernie- not because of a virus. We've got an unpleasant right-wing demagogue in the White House. Do Americans really want to trade him in for an unpleasant left-wing demagogue? His supporters should possibly have been backing Elizabeth Warren whose personalized approach towards progressive solutions at least affords her a claim to genuine empathy. Bernie, on the other hand, seems to love people in general but to loathe them as individuals. His Bros don't seem to notice this or otherwise don't seem to care but I would suggest that most of our citizens do. They recognize his policy proposals as useful ideals but are offering their support to someone more relatable, more dependable and- yes- more visibly and convincingly empathetic.
11
Shifting the lens ever so slightly: perhaps this is not so much the triumph of a campaign as the triumph of democracy.
We take poll numbers like mother's milk (or something stronger), but predictions are just predictions, and results are results.
Thus, a salute to every person now working to secure our election infrastructure and assure valid, verifiable results in every race.
3
You're stretching, Ross. If covid19 had influenced the results of this race, surely people would have gone for Sanders' "free" medical care.
6
Mr. Douthat, your theory rings true to my ear. I would only add that Trump's handling of most of the aspects of the Coronavirus crisis, compares very poorly to Obama/Biden's proactive and calm handling of the Ebola outbreak.
The precipitous fall of the stock market will be seen as a barometer of the public's loss of faith in Trump's leadership abilities. His downplaying , then dark conspiratorial comments--when he should have kept his mouth shut, and let the experts speak in one clear voice--will prove (I hope) to most that Trump's concern about the virus is only self-serving, not an actual concern for the public.
3
David Breitkopf, the COVID-19 corona virus and the Ebola virus are hardly comparable.
2
@John Smithson I beg to differ. If anything Ebola was scarier because it was a death sentence. People remember how thoughtfully and thoroughly the Obama administration managed us through the various crises that confronted the country during his tenure. That is, in my opinion, the real story. Biden will be advised by O and his team while Trump is advised by sycophants and grifters. Everyone knows that even if trumps supporters don’t want to admit it.
1
Luvtennis0, I meant that the Ebola virus never became anything like a pandemic because it was so lethal. The measures taken against it kept it largely in Africa. By contrast the measures that need to be taken against COVID-19 are much different, given that it has already spread around the world.
No leader has had much influence on the spread of the COVID-19 virus. There's really nothing much that can be done on the national level. Shutting down the country of Italy may work, but it's doubtful. Sad as it is, the epidemic will rage on.
Politics has little to do with it. Those who make this political do us all a disservice. People like Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx are far from political people. They must lead the way, as they are, no matter who is president.
2
Sanders winning nomination would never have resulted in a Trump-like takeover of Dem. Party!! Even if Sanders beat Trump, he would have none of his programs passed, since moderate Dems in Congress would not kowtow to him. Most elected Dems, and their voters, UNLIKE Repubs, have principles.
4
Neoliberals are the vast majority of voters and the population in the US. The term "neoliberal" isn't one that most of them are familiar with or could articulate. Progressives need grassroots organizing and involvement by occupying positions at all levels of the electorate. Start local. Quit tweeting, judging and stating subjective opinions like they were facts and effective action toward social change.
3
Prior to coronavirus, the nation was already afflicted with Trump virus. The democratic primary was a reaction to that pre-existing condition than the new disease.
2
A smooth argument, but if Sanders were now triumphant it would be equally plausible to argue that the virus moved people toward Medicare for All and thus accounted for Biden's demise. No, the answer is Trump -- ridding the country of him, that is. The parade of the emperor's new clothes is almost over, and people are desperate to end it. Finally, enough. Thus Biden.
6
So, Ross, if I'm not mistaken, you're saying that voters assessed the current reality (the coronavirus challenges) and voted for the candidate whom the voters thought would/could best handle the reality. What a remarkable idea!
3
Bernie was sabotaged by the less-than-unbiased center-right leaning media and the DNC. All of them were collectively panicking over the prospect of him winning the nomination. Pete and Amy bailing out at the last second before Super Tuesday to back Biden was what took Bernie out.
The frightened, corporate enabling, champions of mediocrity Dems don't deserve a win in 2020. Both major parties in the US are throwing Democracy and concerns for the middle class out the window as much as they can.
3
Mr. Douthat echoes thoughts I had last night as primary returns from the crucial state of Michigan came in: People are just too rattled and weary to open themselves to new ideas (although Senator Sanders's proposals, compared with other wealthy nations, are not novel nor radical).
The Trump presidency has been shocking enough to live with given the almost daily assault and barrage of ineptitude, frightening callousness and lack of focus that Americans have been subjected to in the last three years. It's been a very difficult time for this country.
And then the impeachment in September; and then the witness testimonies, and then the Senate fiasco--all of which has taken its toll on our national psyche over months.
The exciting challenges of the Democratic presidential contest has also kept Americans in a state of heightened awareness and debate for months on end. And underlying our electoral life has been the current of voter suppression and Russian propaganda efforts.
And then: the outbreak of COVID-19 with its sense of panic and fear because it's an unknown and dangerous. The statistics of sickness, death and change in daily life globally are staggering. Economic fears are rampant.
Sanders's bid for a presidency that offers change, even revolution, in normal times, might be something we could address in an excited, thoughtful way. A majority of us might even agree that it's long overdue.
But now we're tired, scared and evidently want the comfort of the known.
4
I expected Biden to surge as soon as the other "moderates" left the race. Continued undermining Sanders by the Democratic Establishment and mainstream media scared a lot of voters as intended. A "flight to safety" in a crisis is a well documented behavior in humans, so yes, the Covid-19 outbreak certainly did help Biden in the recent primaries. It can't be quantified any more than Comey's late announcement that more emails had been found in 2016. Let's hope Covid-19 helps the Democrats through the national election.
That said, the Democrats need to start campaigning against Trump and the Biden and Sanders' campaigns can't be sniping at each other. Whoever wins the nomination is going to need all the votes they can get to overcome the Trump propaganda machine, outside subversion of the election and a serious disadvantage in the Electoral College. That means getting votes moderates, independents, swing voters and the young adults. The latter is most critical in the long term, as they are the future of the party and voting patterns are set early in life.
2
@Logical
Perhaps Biden can start by not insulting voters who ask him questions politely, threaten them with physical violence and shove his fingers in their face.
For a man who claims to be about "decency" with no actual platform specifics, Biden sure doesn't behave like he wants people's votes.
The most striking difference between Biden and Sanders has little to do with ideology or policy positions. The difference is between their personalities, who they are as people.
For all his stumbling and faults, Biden is more likely the one who can bring Americans together after the most divisive president in history (along with Abe Lincoln but for very different reasons).
In stark contrast, Sanders always struck me as an out-of-control angry man who sees himself as the sole possessor of political and social wisdom.
Realistically, Biden may not be able to beat Trump, though I believe he can, but Sanders would not, and furthermore even if elected, would not be able to heal this nation's divisions.
My choice would have been Warren, so my hope is that if Biden is the nominee, he will pick Warren as his running mate. She is progressive like Sanders, but with a much stronger intuition for healing and coming together as a nation.
4
@ernieh1
//In stark contrast, Sanders always struck me as an out-of-control angry man
Yes, I remember all those embarrassing campaign events when Sanders challenged the elderly to fights, push-up contests and called young women lying dog-faces.
Such an out-of-control angry man!
2
@Viv So far as I know Sanders did not do any of those things you suggest.
But even more revealing is that immediately after the results came in after Super Tuesday showed Biden far outpacing Sanders, Bernie blamed his poor showing on his younger generation followers for not showing up to vote for him. Instead of thanking them for their support. That is a very angry man.
That is something he really did, not those imaginary scenarios you came up with.
3
@ernieh1
Bernie did thank his supporters and also pointed out that they didn't show up to vote. Both those things are true. It doesn't make him an "angry man" to point out both those things.
Besides your inability to detect sarcasm, you clearly have not watched Sanders interact with his crowds, especially after losing.
As a progressive, I grasp that it's now a Biden candidacy but this party will make a fatal error if it thinks it gets to ignore the left. Bernie has millions of impassioned voters who are hungry for life-saving change. To ignore what they saw in him is to convey that they literally do not count.
I have said from the onset that no matter how counterintuitive it may feel or sound, the winner has to pair off with his (always his) opposite. For months, I've suggested a Bernie/Klobuchar or Biden/Warren ticket. I'm now more convinced than ever that that is our only hope of beating DJT.
Neither Biden's persona nor policies, alone, are enough to cut it. He disenfranchises too many people. Warren is more vibrant, younger, a woman, and more liberal. A smart party would look to her immediately as his partner. If he chooses someone from the middle, we'll know he really has no investment in the millions who don't share his views. And that is a catastrophe, not just for the party, but for the country and the world that suffers our worst policies.
There is, of course, inspiring precedent for just such a pairing. Afterall, Joe was chosen to temper Obama's progressive leanings (ones that ended up being overstated, btw) and it worked.
Note I said a "smart party." Are we that? Time to demonstrate that in real terms. It's only the fate of the nation at stake.
4
@AhBrightWings Warren would be great. Warren won't happen, though, and it's not really any fault of her, Biden, or anybody. She's a senator from a state with a Republican governor and if any policy is going to actually happen, Democrats need to win both houses. They can't afford to lose a seat.
Sanders is almost certainly a non-starter for a variety of reasons (the VP is going to need to be perceived as significantly younger than Biden, for what should be obvious reasons, and Sanders anywhere on the ticket is poison with never-trumpers and other right-leaners the party needs), though, and that closes some doors depending on the stringency of the "progressive" litmus test.
I tend to favor Pete (most progressive political positions that have the slightest chance of actually becoming law, young, represents a minority, and on a personal basis everything about him reminds me of a comic book I particularly enjoyed, but that's something dumb that only matters to me), but the energy right now is behind a woman, soooo....Abrams? Most of the women who were in the race and not completely out of their gourds (Williamson) weren't in the progressive lane, so what's the party got to choose from here?
2
Usually people wait a little bit to rewrite history to fit their view, this musty be a new world record !
One can argue that the epidemic pretty much freeze the race and theoricallly deprive Sanders of an opportunity to turn things around (and even that is very debatable : internet, TV debates, distant voting, are NOT affected by the current crisis).
But onecannot seriously argue that Super Tuesday and even yesterday contests were in any way affected :
- it was never was a campaign topic,
- no rallies were cancelled because of it,
- no candidate fell ill or had to self-quarantine because of a positive test,
- none of the states were primaries took place were under movement restriction.
In short Biden had the upper hand on Sanders "fair and square". Anything else is sour grapes.
9
@frenchval
TN had a tornado that killed 25 people. You don't think that affected who showed up to vote?
Biden won because the DNC intimidated the other moderate candidates into dropping out and endorsing him immediately. People who wanted a moderate had no choice but to vote for Biden.
When Trump wins in November, will the author blame Coronavirus?
6
The election is about combating an infection called Trumpism.
18
I guess a good opinion writer must have a high opinion of himself. I don't remember Douthat's "analysis" before the Iowa caucus saying Sanders would win Iowa, NH and Nevada, that Biden would finish fourth, fifth and a distant second - and then Biden would storm back in South Carolina, sweep the South with no advertising or appearances, and totally shift the tide and become the presumptive nominee in early March.
The Coronavirus didn't vanquish Bernie Sanders. His ideas were compared to Joe Biden's ideas and the latter were deemed superior by the vast majority of the Democratic electorate.
No one saw it playing out this way. Not even someone who considers himself as prescient as Douthat.
11
Ross Douthat writes, "Joe Biden Beat Bernie Sanders. But So Did the Pandemic".
Yes, Ross, and "so did young people", who, as usual, had -- in droves -- more interest playing on their smart phones than participating in the electoral process.
8
Bernie vanquished by an act of God? I think his personality and his heart attack had more to do with it.
7
It’s curious that there hasn’t been more discussion about it amongst the political pundits, but I think it’s obvious that the advent of Covid19 actually helped Biden. At a time like this, many on the fence voters would want someone with experience handling a public health emergency. Biden worked with Obama to set up the Pandemic Response Team, which Trump got rid of, and under Obama's administration the Ebola outbreak was dealt with in a swift and competent manner. This could only help Biden and not help Sanders at a time like this.
3
Is it too much to hope that concrete, specific plans --as in detailed down to the last point--are being put in place should the virus still be a presence come election day?
At this point, there should be a back-up plan to have ALL votes be cast by mail. With seven-months (nearly a year had we paid attention when the outbreak first happened) to plan and execute the mechanics of carrying that off, that should not be an impossible goal. But just watch. This will go the way the planning for the disease itself has...meaning we'll be left in the lurch.
It's time to stop blaming particular parties (as the end point; GOP policies should certainly be criticized for exacerbating this crisis) and demand more of our government in toto. The level of dysfunction we daily deal with is not acceptable.
Those incapable of leading need to step aside and allow citizens who actually care about the state of the nation to take their places.
1
I seriously doubt the coronavirus had anything to do with it. The more likely scenario is old fashioned politics. The Democratic establishment turned up the heat on the group of moderates with promises of future support in races that they might enter or perhaps cabinet posts in exchange for dropping out and endorsing Biden.They manipulated the primaries in 2016 as we know from the exposed DNC emails so what would prevent them from doing so again in 2020. We and they shall see if their gamble pays off better this time around, I hope so.
JOE BIDEN BEAT NOBODY. Stop saying it. The other moderates dropped out and people took what they could get. He did not come "roaring back." He didn't not "perform a miracle." NYT pundits have been really alarmingly, willfully thick about this.
4
Nonsense. That theory is ridiculous. These results are consistent with what the polls have been for a long time. How did this nonsense get published?
5
I don't get what is the purpose of this article.
2
Trump s gut may be his most rational body part. By mandating his minions to go after Biden per the Ukraine scandal, he put his fear of Biden's election potential up in lights. Lo and behold, his gut (not his cranium) was spot-on.
So now let’s see what illegal, mad-dog, bizarre, theatrical, disgraceful and deceitful scheme Trump and his Republican mob cook up to crash the Democrat’s party. This should be interesting.
But hark! The coronavirus is laying its insistent clout over both party’s campaign strategies. It will continue to snuff out scheduled momentum and demand explicit attention, lucid leadership and unified reaction. Its populous exposure has already upstaged Trump’s machinations and further exposed his pathetic egotism.
This COVID-19 minuscule monster has us on our knees as we should be, realizing our vulnerability.
I do believe that the great Oz of this Universe has an innate sense of humor and is 123 steps ahead of us when it comes to succinctly adjusting his/her exquisite creation towards splendid fulfillment. Stay tuned.
I remember my mother’s morning wake-up call -”Rise-n’-Shine”! It’s time we respond to life’s miraculous opportunity with grace and humility.
Trump and the desire to confront him in November united is what beat Sanders. Bernie, as did others, ran an energetic campaign, but Democrats desire to approach Trump united was too difficult of an ethos of the time to overcome.
1
Douthat is half right. Coronavirus played a role in that it revealed just how unsuited Donald Trump is to the Presidency. His massive denial -- and the way public health leaders kowtowed to his denialism at the early, critical stages -- was a convincing demonstration, at least to Democrats, that his defeat in November is an existential imperative. As Colin Jost (SNL) quipped after showing the clip of Trump at CDC in which he extols his great gifts as a prospective medical scientist to a dumdfounded group of actual scientists and doctors, "We're all going to die." Biden looks to be a person that can attract the broadest coalition to that November project.
2
Sanders lost me when he praised Castro on TV.
His loss has zero to do with the pandemic.
4
I’m no fan of Sanders’ Medicare for All, but it’s absurd for Ross Douthat to argue that nah, universal health coverage that gave everybody—yes, even immigrants legal and otherwise—quick access to at least basic checkups and care wouldn’t come in handy about now.
In fact, it’s medium crazy. Right-wing crazy, and no, I don’t mean “conservative.” I mean right-wing.
And then there’s the concluding bit about God, about which one may only say, “my goodness, look at that.”
2
He didn’t argue that. He argued about perception. Whether Medicare for All would have actually helped or not is not relevant.
Just blew right past the part about, “no clever Socialist argument that Medicare for All would make it easier,” eh?
That’s not a claim about “perception.” It’s a claim that Sanders was lying, and that M4A wouldn’t come in handy right about now.
So God had it in for Bernie? I was with you Ross until the last line. I believe most Bernie bros, given their cultural predilections, would blame Nature, not God.
4
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, Bernie is an Independent, not a Democrat. The members of the party are waking up and coalescing around a true Democrat.
9
This is a fascinating article and goes right to the heart of the slipperiness of historical explanation. Even instant cereal-box historical explanation.
We can't historical experimentation, isolating out specific factors and holding constant others.
But while Ross is no doubt correct in asserting the pluripotential effect of environment (public health: nurture) as well as Sanders's agency (nurture), we might also assert the likelihood Joe would have pulled it together no matter what.
I say this because voters (especially democrats) are smarter than both pols and pundits. There is a mass will to defeat Drumpf.
Look at it as intersecting wave motion. The Bern's new rat-pack, the dirbag dems and the insurgents, was a fast moving and roiling wave, but not of the right amplitude. Closer-to-center dems, Biden and others, were a slow moving but wide wave. A wave more than capable of damping the earlier one.
Hence the mistake Bernie and his Lady Macbeth made was to overestimate the first, and underestimate the second wave.
Sanders has been a clear voice for equity and the need to include everyone, to end the era when those who had less than they needed were the losers and takers who preyed on the virtuous and responsible rich and powerful. But Sanders is not willing to compromise and no liberal democratic system which respects individual liberties can exist without compromise. The majority rule is by the consent of the minority not by the grace of God or of the will of heaven. Sanders does seem to think that his proposals are easily implemented and will be so wonderful that a consensus will result of unanimous support for all of them. That’s what keeps him from gaining popular Democratic support, he will not compromise.
2
"... after the first three primaries it appeared likely to work."
Okay, let us, yet again, try to stop this canard.
Saying that the Biden campaign was dead after Iowa and NH is just media groupthink.
His base hadn't voted yet. If SC had voted first, the story would have been that Sanders Is Toast.
I'd hate to have a journalist on a jury. After the first prosecution witness: "Guilty! It's all over!"
7
Ah, it's the virus now. How about the Democratic establishment simply wouldn't allow Sanders to win? Bernie did an excellent job of beating himself also. But the virus? Nah..........
2
Why can't this be looked at for what it was: The voters have said all along the #1 thing they were looking at in their candidate was the ability to beat Trump. As the field slowly narrowed the person who can do that became clearer to them. In another time facing a different opponent in the general election, the voters may have been willing to take a chance on Bernie. But not this time. Not against Trump. The voters have decided to take one for the team. Why people like Douthat are looking for more of a reason to explain this seems to indicate they are trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill. And just so Mr. Douthat doesn't over analyze the general election: Voters want to defeat Trump. Like Republican voters who know about Trump and Ukraine and Rudy and the porn stars and...., the voters all know about Hunter and Joe's gaffes , and his working with racists decades ago....It didn't matter in the primary and it won't matter in the general election. Not to the 60% anyway.
7
Wrong Mr. Douthat. This is not about the coronavirus, this is about getting rid of the virus in the White House.
12
Sanders defeated by an act of God? Please, keep God out of it. After all Trump was "God plan" (Pat Robertson).
3
Donald Trump has finally revealed himself to be what we’ve always known he is: a charlatan. He hit the one wall he cannot obfuscate or gaslight: a virus.
Viruses don’t care if you’re rich or poor. Viruses don’t care if you’re a red or blue or if you live in a western nation or or a poor migrant or a billionaire. Viruses care only about the availability of your cells for hijacking and they are equal opportunity invaders.
You can’t charm a virus away. You can’t pull rank on a virus or threaten its job. You can’t bully a virus away. You can’t pay a virus off. You can’t threaten to sue a virus. You can’t make a virus sign a non-disclosure or catch and release the viruses story.
You can try to call it a liar and a thief and you can do all in your power to malign its reputation, but the virus doesn’t care about your words… Like a hungry Pac-Man the virus only cares about the cells within you it can eat.
Personally, if we make our way past this specific situation, I’m looking forward to the peace of a Biden presidency.
I’m looking forward to a functional government, with its basic confidence and decency unquestioned. I’m looking forward to believing what I’m told by our government officials. I’m looking forward to not feeling like I’m playing a game of survivor in the suburbs.
Donald Trump, see you at the polls, sucker. If the virus doesn’t get us both first.
5
Right analysis, wrong virus. The eradication on the minds of voters is about Trump.
7
The Democratic Party is in a self-destructive mode.
Congratulations on the enormous bias, prejudice, incompetance and stupidity!
It declares the utter defeat as a victory!
The entire Democratic establishment and the DNC managed to defeat a single man, Bernie Sanders, after the all-out partisan efforts and smear campaign by approximately 55% to 45% advantage and celebrate this stunning inability as the tremendous success?!
What do the partisan leaders think is going to happen this November when thy face Trump, the FOX News Network, the GOP, and the wealthiest individuals in the USA?
If the DNC defeated Mr. Sanders by claiming that he is bad for the big business, does it really think they could defeat the Republicans with that platform this November?!
You pundits are all overthinking this whole thing, as usual. Biden is winning for one simple reason: Democratic voters see him as the most likely of all the candidates to defeat Trump in November, and that is the thing they care about the most. Progressive policies and institutional change are all well and good, but eliminating the threat and averting further disaster is what is foremost in everyone’s minds right now. If the virus has any impact at all, it only serves to illustrate Trump’s incompetence and reinforce the belief that he has to go at any cost. It’s really just that simple.
7
You mirror my thoughts exactly. It’s akin to Maslows Hierarchy of Needs, we need to repair the cracked foundation and survive in order to thrive.
1
Could it be the Climate Change election? Maybe the microbes are fighting back. After the 1918/19 pandemic voters wanted a return to Normalcy. If that puts Biden in the Harding role, which woman will be chosen as V.P.?
Brown is the new black and Bernie is the new Hillary: unlikable and unelectable.
2
The pundit narrative is correct, the rest is speculative fantasy.
2
Sure, act of god, I’d expect Ross to say that. But trump and his fellow travellers helped by cancelling funds for disease testing and control*. Because, as we know, if it’s called “resistance”, it must be a plot of Adam Schiff and the Dems. (*As the evangelicals say, Trump acts as gods hand. So yeah, there’s that).
1
Incredibly ironic that a virus that overwhelmingly affects and kills the elderly should HELP the candidate that will cut Social Security and does not believe in universal public health care. We are a doomed nation, starting with the oldest among us committing seppuku through naive political choice.
2
This is a whole lot of mental gymnastics to try to factor in a potential pandemic into the Dem’s political race. I would call in a fluff story.
The real story grabbing the news today is about Biden inept, argumentative, and seemly threat to “go outside” with a blue-collared worker on the factory floor about his gun rights.
Biden’s temperament and mental fitness is now highly questionable and a tremendous liability.
@Charlie No it’s not. People have known joe Biden for 50 years. They know him as a decent man who served in the most scandal free admin in recent history. Please.
The flight to safety...against the dangerous Trump.
2
I don't know...coronavirus wasn't dominating public consciousness on the day of the South Carolina primary, which seems to be what lit Biden's rocket.
2
A pretty low shot.
Blaming a deadly virus for a Biden win.
What has this country resorted to?
4
Super Tuesday beat Sanders, the Covid-19 virus shows the difference between Biden’s leadership and others’ and served as the nail in Bernie’s campaign coffin.
3
One can say anything, as you are, but to give the virus credit for Joes win is ridicules!
2
Of all the people at the first debate a white heterosexual christian male ensconced in a morbid past and a deeply compromised spiritless present (who very probably, most likely, unless a new groundswell of opposition emerges) will be the Democratic nominee for President.
No wonder Ross is so happy.
2
You are wrong as usual, Ross. The primary reason Biden is winning is Trump, and the extent to which the virus played a role is justin exposing, like never before, this president's lack of leadership, morality and understanding of anything except his infantile need for self-embellishment. Now you know that's the truth. You just don't have the courage to say it.
4
“an act of God.” The article concludes. Really? I know this is just an expression. But can we please speak more precisely? It’s an act of nature. Or do you think there’s an old man in the sky with a long white beard crafting new viruses to plant into humanity to turn elections?
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Ross, ' vanquished only by an act of God'? Your view of Divine Providence only gives non-believers cause to champion a random universe. Perhaps you need to leave God out of it and think more about RNA...
1
There is zero evidence that the Trump administration's incompetent handling of the coronavirus has affected the primaries in any way. The main reason for that? The Dems have failed to go on the attack on this issue, probably because they keep falling for the disingenuous Republican argument that the pandemic should not be politicized--disingenuous because Republican's mercilessly attacked Obama's (very competent) handling of the Ebola crisis.
I hope that the Democrats learn how to run a political campaign before Republicans permanently make elections a quaint nicety of the past.
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@Andres Hannah Fortunately, they don’t need to. Trump shouts out his incompetence on a magaphone.
Crunch time for Sanders. He can either step up to the plate and concede to Biden, acting like a team player, or drag out the inevitable Biden nomination which would have a fractious effect on a Democratic party that can ill afford to give Trump any openings to attack it as weak and divided. Bernie should look at the numbers and stop playing Don Quixote. If he is sincere about his statement that the most important objective is to defeat Trump, the ball is in his court to do the right thing.
2
In short, Ross Douthat's narrative is largely correct. Question going forward will be how this dynamic will affect the general election. If, deep down, Biden's win is more about voter fear and desperation in an emerging existential crisis, this will provide a clear opening to Trump to take on increasingly dictatorial powers as public health system deteriorates and economic devastation advances. Rather than be undone by COVID-19, he may take on Executive power not seen since Lincoln during the Civil War. And more.
"Act of God"?
It was African American voters in South Carolina who reset the Democratic primaries.
You should thank them and realize that their loyalty to this country and to Barack Obama's achievements - especially expanding healthcare - are a national treasure.
6
A heartfelt Thank You to all the African Americans
who came out to vote in all of the primaries.
2
Biden can reassure Bernie supporters and retain their enthusiasm by not making Tim Kaine his running mate.
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Another important piece of this story is voters on the fence pushed to Biden over Trump's endless disturbing antics during this Corona virus crisis. A frightening failure of leadership and lack of common sense by Trump has convinced the electorate he is unfit to handle criseses. Biden projects capable judgement and leadership while Sanders is stuck in his dogmatic socialism. Sanders dropped the ball.
1
I do not understand why no one in the pundit class are suggesting this is a plague sent from God to rid the earth of old conservatives. I hear a lot God stuff from all pundits. You all have to at least fake your belief in God because you need to draw an audience to get paid, and nearly everyone believes in magic people in the sky, who apparently in the past have sent plagues for such situations.
I would actually call this another of the lead lamed old person elections. Not too different than last time or the time before. You see, for people born before 1975, they spent their formative years being exposed to lead from leaded gasoline and now are permanently hindered mentally because of it. If you look at people who were born after 1975 and who they voted for in the democratic primary it is just the opposite of old democrats who were raised during the lead poisoning years. It would certainly explain both Donald Trump and Joe Biden and their sometimes incoherent ramblings.
I just can't see the connection of the virus and the democratic primaries. I suspect Ross doesn't want us to focus on the fact that the two likely candidates would struggle to survive the virus if infected. That, and that they are both really old and out of it.
Republicans are hoping Joe Biden can save their party by being a republican like he always was.
At the end of the day, Mr Trump was the one that helped. We don’t want another leader with a “take no prisoners” approach. Truth and decency are infectious too!
1
No worries. A tax cut will solve everything.
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Beg to disagre Ross, it's not Coronavirus is kicking out Trump. People will be voting against trump no matter who's the democratic candidate.
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Biden’s surge began after his convincing win in South Carolina—at that point the first contested state with a large African-American electorate. Until then, Sanders had essentially tied Mayor Pete in Iowa and New Hampshire—two lily-white-states—before notching his only runaway win, in Nevada.
The way I see it, it wasn’t the coronavirus. What did Sanders in was the fact that his campaign never had the momentum he claimed it had—that and the fact that black voters, among many others, aren’t interested in a “political revolution.”
2
When you can’t condemn the USSR, you had no chance to win the nomination.
As I read yet another partisan column by member in good standing of the Professional Republican Commentariat, Ross Douthat, I continue to wonder at the level of exertion needed to remain in the cloistered, suffocatingly restricted alternate reality land he and his fellow rightwing travelers inhabit. It must be absolutely exhausting. Few facts squeeze through the bubble’s thick membrane (Bernie isn’t a Democrat, Bernie is the favored candidate of the RNC/Kremlin) and those that do are distorted beyond recognition (Democrats have become far left radicals for, oh the horror, suggesting America could be a more humane, decent, moral and fair country by implementing some of what that radical hippy pinko Jesus suggested). And, of course, there is to be no mention of the existential threat to America that is Douthat’s Republican Party and its true face, Trump. Is Biden the ideal candidate? No, but the RNC/Kremlin clearly fears he can topple their man, Trump, and that is good enough.
1
Ross fails to mention Trump's inept reaction to the virus, ranging from the usual "fake news" to declaring it was no worse than the flu.
People have begun to tire of Mr. Trump's antics.
Trump, Republican racism, and our looming crises have destroyed courage, the historical foundation of the American character. Then Bernie scared the mainstream media and they completed our transition into safety moms with timely assistance from the virus.
When given the choice of standing up and demanding what every one of the other civilized countries already have, we crawled under our beds with Biden.
1
Sometimes the simple answer is the right one. And in this case, your first story is correct.
BTW, please lay off the constant references to 'pundits'. This is a distracting and annoying bogeyman used by both left and right and has no meaning.
1
neither of your analyses are right. Biden was always going to win, all of the other twists and turns were dead ends, Bernie included...
1
If god sent the unique coronavirus to defeat Bernie and Trump and make Biden president she has more of a sense of humor than I had giver her credit for.
1
Not at all convincing.
Bernie’s supporters are not political. They are anarchists. Even with a Sanders win, they would not change their mode of operations. It would just embolden them. Biden can not WIN them over. It is the movement just like the Jacobins who devoured themselves.
Ross, are you setting up an argument for November when the GOP loses?
1
Most certainly, the Biden vote is a fear vote, and has been from the beginning. This fear has spread at about the same pace as the coronavirus. And now, the Democrats are sending forth a befuddled old man with a wretched political history (Clarence Thomas, Iraq War, Social Security cuts) into battle. No thanks.
1
Could it be that we are clinging to a safe choice because of how incompetent and anti-science the current administration is?
I would expect that factor to be omitted by a columnist who (even in jest) attributes an epidemic to God.
1
I agree.
And I've never said that before without qualification about one of your columns.
Great. What we need for tackling the COVID-19 outbreak is a man whose mental faculties are in severe decline, who can't stand up for 2 hours straight or speak for more than 7 minutes, and who can't keep his hands to himself.
The alternative: A germ-phobic, anti-science narcissist who believes COVID-19 is a hoax and appoints a non-public-health, non-science person to head up his outbreak response team.
Considering how many American leaders are over 70, "the coronavirus election" maybe takes another meaning soon.
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If Biden doesn't throw up on a kid, he is automatically the candidate. Trump should have Corona by then, so hopefully Biden will win by default.
I like the rationale, and I can agree with it for the most part. What is nagging at me is that the bold agenda of the left to treat basic needs: health care, education, family debt, minimum wage, housing, and fiscal inequality are all things that are not only needed in good times, but should/will be accentuated by this virus crisis. Our government is woefully unprepared to deal with such a crisis. Bernie and Warren's whole pitch is the "government can do good for all people, and it should", but the "people" just won't buy it, at least not in time. Even though our "establishment" dominated society is exposed and revealed now to be quite inadequate, (as portrayed by Sanders/Warren), we are now about to have our noses rubbed in this inadequacy by a mildly deathly virus and there will be a lot of pain. Pain by the 99%. They are and will continue to bear the brunt. The 1% will not and will continue to say "let them eat cake". It's the irony that I am pointing out. People are "panicking" and closing ranks around the "establishment" candidate for survival when it is the establishment that largely has been exposed as inadequate and unresponsive. Warren said we need an "all in" strategy, and she was right. People yearn for a return to normalcy. There is a new normal already in place. What we be able to return to, or to create in the future? Trump's words haunt the air: "We'll see what happens."
Moderate Democrats learned their lessons from the 2016 Republicans who failed to consolidate and therefore paved the way for Trump. However scattered Moderate Dems appeared before Super Tuesday, they delivered. It is arguably naive by Bernie and his team not to prepare for this.
I am not sold that the Coronacirus captures the full extent of Bernie's poor results. Has it had an impact? Definitely. But it should not strip him of all accountability for his divisive and dichotomous language.
Covid-19 aside, I voted for Biden on Super Tuesday, because after reading everything about which candidate would be the best choice to beat Trump, it was the choice I was left with. I was voting against Trump not against progressive ideals. I was voting in the hopes that if we can win the Presidency, we can gain some of the social progress back that has been eroded. I was voting for rebuilding Obamacare with an eye toward universal health care. I don't know if the young people understand how hard it was to get Obamacare passed, and if they really understood that Sanders idealistic programs would founder in the Senate without a hope of passing as long as Mitch McConnell is in control. Most of all I was voting for the sake of my grandchildren's futures.
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This primary race has ended between Sanders and Biden. However, a Biden nomination will most likely lead to another four years of Trump. Firstly, it was extremist neoliberal democrats (aka: “moderate democrats”), such as Biden, who created the conditions for a Trump candidacy in the first place by not promoting and passing quality progressive policy that actually helps Americans. Secondly, to say a moderate candidate is a safer option is nonsense considering Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Obama, and Hillary were all “moderate” presidents or presidential candidates who either were followed by a very conservative Republican or lost to a very conservative Republican. Hillary Clinton should be a prime example because she lost to the most unpopular presidential winner in modern history. Thirdly, Biden has dementia and cannot put a coherent sentence together and will get destroyed by Trump during the debates. Sanders still has his mind, knows how to debate, and will stick to the issues that most Americans care about. In conclusion, the Democrat Party may need to learn the hard way again in 2020 that “moderatism” doesn't work. Old habits die hard. And, if by some chance Biden does get elected, brace yourself for Trump 2.0.
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@Demetrius I want you to be wrong but you're stating exactly what I'm thinking. Trump is very likely to win over Biden. I hope I'm wrong but the DNC seems very clueless about what kind of candidate can beat Trump. We'll see.
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@Demetrius If Sanders had stuck to the issues that most Americans really care about, he would have moved toward them rather than stick immovably with proposals that mark him as "insanely consistent," as one of his supporters gleefully described Sanders. Biden and the rest of the Democratic Party have moved left, but nothing will satisfy Bernie except total capitulations to his policies. To some degree, people voted for Biden as "safe" candidate, but they also prefer Biden's policies and approach to government over that of Sanders.
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@Demetrius : Sanders would have been equally good for Trump's chances. The Democrats are divided between "more of the same" Biden and the radically progressive Sanders.
Their only chance was and is to split the difference. Since it appears that Biden will win the nomination, he has to give something to the Sanders crowd. He will have to offer some of what Sanders wanted, without going far enough to lose the conservative Democratic wing.
He needs to find the sweet spot, and keep the Never Trumpers.
7
It's entertaining watching a conservative in the thrall of his own foundational biases contort himself to avoid giving a successful Democrat credit. One example to refute Mr. Douthat's luck/God theory is that long before the epidemic became predominant the Medicare For All plans were becoming an anchor for both Sanders and Warren.
Or, maybe Mr. Douthat is right that God was fed up with the evil being done by the Trump administration in His name and wanted to see an electable, compassionate, and emotionally healthy person get the nomination?
1
We won't know till November whether Donald Trump will lose the presidency to Joe Biden, the man who looks to be the Democratic Party's Nominee for president this summer. How the former 2-term Vice-President at age 77 was able to be the comeback kid of the Democratic Party's super tuesday caucuses and primaries defies logic. But then America's politics (cf, our bizarre president, Donald Trump, winning election in 2016)) has defied logic for far too long. The question that will be answered in our 2020 Election in November is whether or not Trump will be made a one-term president (as the Republicans mightily prayed for during Barack Obama's 8 year presidency). The Covid-19 coronavirus may well not be dead in November and may last as long as the Spanish Flu pandemic from 1918-1920, 100 years ago. Anything is possible.
@Nan Socolow Are you hoping the coronavirus is around in November? Sounds like it. In fact, it seems like a lot of anti-Trumpers are hoping that. Sounds horrible doesn't it.
1
The rest of the field....? Well, not everyone. So disappointed in Warren’s timid, compromised non-endorsement. So disappointed in her whole campaign. What a total waste, and a huge blow to the causes she purports to believe in. Really makes you wonder. We need a whole new generation of progressive leadership in this country, the kind that didn’t “used to be” capitalism loving Republican moderates. This election is interesting to be sure. Might be the last for the Democratic party as we know it, especially if Biden loses, as I fear he will.
Agreed...the Democrats once again put in the fix to get Biden as the nominee and will likely regret it (as will many others) come November
Or perhaps we can look even further back. It turns out that there are a significant number of people who voted for Bernie four years ago and for Biden this year. Maybe it's neither Bernie's socialism nor the virus. Maybe it's the fact that they only voted for Bernie last time because they weren't willing to vote for Hillary. This time there was a white male alternative to Bernie, and they took it.
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@Dawn Helene
I was agreeing with you all the way until you played the sex card. Nobody wants a socialist in the white house.
I think we're going to need to have both President Trump and Mr. Biden submit to a public health test to validate they are not carrying the novelcoronavirus.
If there ever was a time for transparency and candor, this is it.
1
Ironically, progressive policies (universal healthcare, paid sick time, ...) are what you need when there is an epidemic. But don't let reality intrude...
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@Chris r So we are going to get universal healthcare in a few months....
It is a bit more due to Elizabeth Warren -- changing her passions to embrace the status quo in the Democratic Party as well as the nation's economic orientation. Prove me wrong Lizzie.
3
No, Ross. It’s the Trump Flu. He did not cause this Crisis, but his abject incompetence is finally on full display, and he can’t hide this time. All the Blaming and denial in the World will not matter, as the Bodies pile up. The GOP has “ drowned Government in the Bathtub “. Unfortunately, many more Victims will result.
NOVEMBER.
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“He was vanquished only by an act of God.” The coronavirus is not an act of God; it’s an act of biology. When you elevate material reality to the level of abstraction you remove human agency from the equation. If God is the cause, then he is also the solution. And I don’t see any evidence of that.
Calling it an act of God merely gives conservatives more cover for their abysmal response to the virus, to their cutting of research funds and funding for health agencies, for ignoring early warning from medical experts that we needed testing, for their denial of the extent of the problem. This was the very flawed HUMAN response wrought by Douthat’s conservative tribe – not God.
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It's frustrating to read a sober, reasoned, rational analysis of a controversial topic in the current news cycle, one that refreshingly looks at the present from an historical perspective, only to have it thrown to the winds with a final kowtow to religion. “Act of God” is certainly a strict legal term but Douthat's glib, ambiguous use of the expression guts the well thought-out analysis that precedes it.
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Really good effort to deny Biden any kind of victory. It ain't him, it's the virus! He didn't win, it's the virus that gave him the win!
One wonders how you will spin Trump's "win" over the same virus.
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The worst words any American can ever hear, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." Movement Conservatives believe in shrinking the government so small you can drown it in a bath tub. Conservatives believe that government should be totally out of the healthcare business, including the CDC. Movement
Conservatives believe that the CDC is a government entity preventing private corporations from jumping in and, instantaneously, create a vaccine for the virus.
Movement Conservatives like Ross used to believe all these things. Then the Real World step and, like Trump ascending above the law, all their precious rock bottom beliefs evaporate.
3
I am happy to cede to the people who actually turned out to vote for their preferred candidate in favor of mine, whose much-touted young supporters could not be bothered to do so.
So, I would now enthusiastically propose Biden-Harris 2020. Or, if one of our fellow citizens could be persuaded to rescue the nation from the deranged narcissist by committing to spend yet more of her life hanging around the Oval Office, Biden-Obama 2020.
1
As a former Warren supporter I really would like to transition into the Sanders camp. But there's a huge problem: Sander's supporters! I can't believe how nasty my local 'chapter' is. Even after the alternate candidates dropped out it's just one nasty attack post after another. This is not a consensus building group! There's definitely an "Us vs Them" vibe. and I don't feel like I'm part of the "Us" group. I'm having trouble imagining how a Sanders presidency can actually function effectively?!!! It's disappointing because I know Biden is one gaffe away from another campaign melt down...
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This virus is not "an act of God" as Friar Douthat has written. It started when unsanitary conditions surrounding bats in China unleashed this disease upon humans. Science, not prayers, will hopefully resolve this crisis in the coming months.
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Biden didn't beat Sanders. This campaign wasn't about these two people. It was about fear and money. The corrupt Democratic party machine, its corporate backers and an un-patriotically biased mainstream news media beat back the attempts of a movement led by young people to wrench power away from big money interests, restore power to the people, reclaim the American dream of economic justice and equal opportunity for all and initiate an urgent national and global effort to turn our backs on our addiction to fossil fuels and combat climate change.
In so doing, those forces have thumbed their noses at the next generation and I believe brought a meat cleaver smack down the middle of the Democratic party forever. They learned nothing from 2016 and have decided to prop up an extremely weak candidate, with multiple vulnerabilities to attack, a candidate far worse than Hillary Clinton, with a terrible record, one who must avoid a public microphone as much as possible, a candidate that I believe Donald Trump will make mincemeat of, especially in the working class swing states that gave him the White House.
Get ready for 4 more years. Guaranteed.
2
Ross, as per usual, you’ve displayed how the conservative mind has to go through so many twists and turns with logic to arrive at an illogical conclusion. “Only a good guy with a gun can stop a bad guy with a gun”.....what? Republicans do not want to allow women to have abortions, yet they also won’t vote for legislation that provides for great public schools or HEALTHCARE. Conservatives want to Pray The Gay Away. Trickle down never had a bigger fan than your current president. Please. This is not a Corona Election. This is an election to rid our country of the worst president in American history....and probably the worst senate majority since The Civil War....although Mitch would have made an ideal Confederate. Yes, the 2020 election is about a virus...but that virus is called GOP 2020.
3
Or this could be another self fulfilling prophecy- the media (including the nyt) constantly questioning if a woman can win the presidency, tanking EW’s chances. The media creating a panic frenzy around a coronavirus situation with constant clickbait headlines.
This whole thing is getting old.
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I voted for Biden after Amy Klobuchar dropped out. I am hoping Biden selects her or K. Harris as VP or Barack Obama. Wouldn't that be fun.
The corona virus had nothing to do with it. The pundits have me pegged.
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I voted for Biden as a flight to safety -- not from the corona virus, but from the authoritarianism of Trumpism.
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Excuse me, you act like the moderate Democrat actually won the Presidency. By November, Coronavirus will he forgotten, and Hunter Biden will be an obsessive topic of media interest. Remember Hilary’s email server? Plus, the stock market will be roaring back, and it will be Morning in America with a Taliban peace deal and the boys will be coming home!
I fear Biden is peaking too early. The point isn’t who can earn votes on March 11, 2020, it’s who can do it on November 3, 2020.
1
An act of God? Uh, no.
Biden’s unifying message—recapturing the soul of the country by beating Trump—has been his “lane” all along. Simple, direct, clear and uplifting vs an angry arm waver whose political revolution screeching voters are rejecting.
The act of God will help in the general against a snake oil salesman whose meanest and cruelty is only matched by his complete incompetence handling the Coronavirus health crisis.
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This is slightly off point but "....Biden's verbal stumbles".
How does that compare to Trump? I can't remember an instance of him uttering a single coherent sentence. Sometimes he even makes words up.
I doubt that Trump's handlers will want him to debate Biden,or any other Democratic nominee, even if said nominee is a rubbish bin.
Their problem is Trump's ego.
4
> …the simplest way of describing the last two weeks of hectic politics and looming calamity is to say that whatever mistakes he made, whatever opportunities he passed up, in the final analysis Sanders didn’t lose the race because of his choices. He was vanquished only by an act of God.
***As I was reading this op-ed piece, it led me to believe, without reading the part of it above, that God may have had a hand in this, perhaps to unseat Trump with the Democratic candidate most likely to do so.
Two Biblical passages come to mind: Romans 8:28 which says, “And we know that for those who love God all things work together for good, for those who are called according to his purpose,” And Daniel 2:21 which says, “[God] removes kings and sets up kings…” In our case, the “king” that may be removed is Trump.
1
It ain't over.
Another silly analogy. The Democrats want the best person to beat Trump. That’s it. Somebody running as a Socialist with a chip on their shoulder isn’t it.
5
Did I miss something? Has Covid-19 officially been declared a 'pandemic'? Does 45 even know what that means?
Folks wanna' know.
1
"Act of God"?
Really?
I've got to hand it to you Ross, after years of helping to create the modern Republican party, then decrying it's devolution into the inevitable Trumpism pit where it now resides, you still have the chutzpah to just make stuff up for this column, and call it opinion. Shouldn't opinion have at least a smattering of factual basis, some semblance of a connection to reality?
You should step outside your religious bubble, and see the world without the excuses that faith enables.
The virus scaring voters is Trumpism. Biden's on top because far more Democrats than not believe he can beat Trump.
1
The other candidates got their marching orders from the DNC to step aside and endorse Biden. Get ready for a replay of 2016. We just need Obama to say Biden's the most qualified candidate ever, LOL.
Sanders is a brat and his followers are enabled to be their worst selves. If they don't pull their heads out of their armpits, we can thank them for four more years of embarrassment, misery, cruelty, and most of all preternatural greed and incompetence. Even if he won the presidency, his platform was never getting out of Congress. It's as dead as Warren's wealth tax.
1
Last evening, I listened to Biden's speech in Philadelphia, and I thought to myself, "How presidential! How coherent! How capable! How unifying! How comforting! He is already acting the way that a real president should act." And as I saw Jill Biden smiling and applauding next to him, I also thought to myself, "How nice it will be to have a First Lady who obviously likes and loves her husband! He must be one heck of a guy! And gosh, he doesn't look that old!"
Unfortunately, one robin doth not a Spring make. If the Coronavirus lasts until November, and if Trump continues with his incompetent head in the sand, we won't really have anything much to worry about come the election. But that's a big IF. And there is still the GOP's bag of dirty tricks to think about, and I expect them to pull out every one.
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May this coronavirus be Trump’s downfall.
Go Joe!
1
So in response to the coronavirus, you're saying that the Americans voted for someone who wants to keep their terrible healthcare system?
You're full of it.
Biden securing the Democratic nomination reminds me of the times I have gone into a car dealership to buy one model and came out of the store with a different one. Oh well, if he can stammer his way this far, he may do well against President Chaos.
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It would be the ultimate irony for this president, a man who has done everything he can to denigrate science and scientists, to be taken down by a virus.
So Trumpian . . . .
1
Poppycock. Jim Clyburn's well timed endorsement in South Carolina was the spark that allowed Biden's rise from the ashes. Time for the next chapter. .
The last line of this essay is appalling. As a rather respected columnist, you have a responsibility not to introduce medieval thinking into your political arguments. Like many Christian thinkers, you adhere to the infantile notion of an infinitely powerful deity causing enormous worldly events to affect individual human destinies. To be more specific, you (I hope glibly) aver that God initiated a fatal pandemic, which so far has taken thousands of lives, to prevent an American politician from becoming the nominee of his party. This kind of nonsense makes C.S. Lewis look like James Randi. Further, if God is so concerned about safeguarding America from bad leaders, where was he in 2016? Ball. Der. Dash.
Everyone knows that "PANDEMIC" is really "PANIC" with "DEM" neatly tucked inside it.
1
I like pundits who don't invoke a mythical deity in the last line of a column.
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In the end, divine intervention had little to do with the ultimate result.
The Democratic establishment coalesced around Joe Biden as the candidate best equipped to defeat the corona virus infesting 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
African-Americans and suburbanites fell in line, as did all but the young and far left.
A unified party can win in November.
Bernie has all but lost because even the democratic voters are anti-Semitic, homophobic, misogynistic (including women), racist (blacks too), mostly ignorant (college grads too), and especially in the south and midwest. Our election system is antiquated and unjust. The shallow, repetitive, materialistic corporate media has mostly maligned Sanders, sensationalizes every aspect of the news for ratings and does little to nothing to educate the American public on the enormous complexity of issues we face. Three elderly impotent blowhards now vie for the presidency, and I couldn't be more disgusted with most of my fellow Americans for their ridiculous choices.
@Robert O. Wow. And you wonder why Sanders is losing. Invective is not going to win over dem voters.
Interesting take on the primary. I expect that Bernie Sanders really could not effectively tack to the center to reassure suburbanites and cultural moderates. He has appealed to most of his supporters by his "authenticity," i.e. his assertion that he does not compromise his principles.
I'm from Michigan and have to reject the coronavirus theory. We are not panicking here. We are not fighting at the big box stores over toilet paper. The National Guard is not rolling into our neighborhoods.
Yes, many of us are taking reasonable and prudent choices when it comes to hygiene. But no, we are not running to safety or to Joe. In fact, I believe if Joe had run in 2016 he would have carried Michigan. So let's think of a better name: A Return to Reason
2
This is seductive in many ways, but it is excellent in one: stating Sanders' misjudgments in strategy and utterance. With South Carolina's implosion of every other candidacy but Warren's, Biden already held the requisite marbles, and with Trump's demonstrable criminality and impeachability resting so plainly, in most recent part, on his abuse of Biden personally, anxiety with the virus is a superfluous sauce. No doubt, the epidemic cannot be understood to boost confidence in Trump, but I wouldn't go so far as to speculate that it does so for Biden.
Joe Biden had on his side the one thing that Bernie Sanders did not. Joe Biden had the support of most of the former Democratic presidential candidates. They were either with him on the platform or talking about his greatness in front of the television cameras. Bernie Sanders only had the Squad which in the end did not play a part in winning the votes.
Finally, a Douthat column I can mostly agree with.
He lost me with that last line: He was vanquished only by an act of God.
Not really. First of all, wearing his pundit hat Douthat made a valid argument for why Biden surged ahead. So, no act of God there.
As for the coronavirus, again, Douthat makes the argument, also valid, that people trust Biden more than Sanders to deal with this crisis (if it's not too late come January 2021). So, no act of God there either. Just human confidence in a man those humans trust.
I'm ideologically much closer to Sanders than to Biden, and I have to say that he is his own worst messenger. Elizabeth Warren would have been better. That said, I can't think of a better argument for universal health care than this crisis, whether it's Bernie's plan or some alternative. Bernie has already moved even moderate Dems to the left since his 2016 candidacy. I predict that a Biden presidency with a Democratic congress will make it reality.
10:55 EDT, 3/11
I totally agree that Covid-19 was critical to swinging undecideds to Biden, primarily because there is no other explanation. Biden was outspent and out-organized--but a known quantity. The swing to Biden took place across the nation, and included people who were not in communication with each other. All they had in common was a threat, from a disease that threatened not only each person individually, but also the very structure of our society. In the face of the threat, they opted for what seemed to them to be the safer alternative. Had Bernie recognized the threat, both to his campaign and to the nation, and addressed Covid-19 coherently and in a problem-solving manner, he might have saved his campaign, but instead he continued give his essentially unchanged stump speech. Biden did no better in addressing Covid-19, but he projected pragmatism rather than ideology, and that made him the better person for this moment in history.-
As a historian, I take exception to Ross Douthat's statement that, "history likes to keep things simple." History is complicated, as are the reasons for Sen. Sanders's loss to Joe Biden.
I think he is more saying that people like their narrative of history simple, even though it is complex.
Good insights and I agree on the long-term interpretation of this.
I'd also add that it was the perfect storm....the guy in 3rd --Mayor Pete -- didn't act like a politician normally would and gracefully backed out at a moment that it actually made a difference. At the same time, Tom Friedman wrote a column that went literally everywhere advising Democrats to "forge a national unity ticket the likes of which they have never forged before." Then a smaller column appeared in a conservative publication (The Bulwark) written by a Republican consultant who tried to stop Trump in 2016....it was passed around to fewer folks but those who saw it literally freaked out.
Well, as Winston Churchill said, ""Never let a good crisis go to waste".
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a) Bernie Sanders would have not conceded anything had he won the nomination? What planet is Ross on? Bernie has always worked to get the best deal and then made compromises.
b) I just donated to him again. I will never vote Democrat again. I'm changing my registration to Independent. This is a blood bath and it's Barack Obama's fault.
c) I hope every person who pushed for Biden to be the nominee gets the Corona Virus.
d) Biden will not beat Trump, even with the virus ruining the stock market and causing chaos.
e) What happens when the Supreme Court votes to gut the ACA?
f) We are doomed.
So you’d rather credit the virus than the black voters whose support for Biden was decisive in placing his campaign on the path to victory. Ugh.
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@The Paper Collector : At least everyone could agree that gathering big crowds to cheer at political rallies is no longer an option.
Hey Ross, if you try to reach anymore you might grab the moon.
I mean, there are many viable explanations for why Sanders fumbled. But wow are the mental gymnastics here impressive.
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"He was vanquished only by an act of God."
God's not finished yet. Next is Trump.
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CoronaVirus had zero to do with Sanders loss. Last time around, Clinton and the media didnt attack his socialism, because they were afraid of alienating his supporters. This time around, they knew Trump would take that socialist label and pin it on his forehead, so the Democrat establishment, which includes the media, panicked. Dont forget, last time, Trump wasnt the nominee yet. That was a different world for the media. The media was able to control and label politicians as they wanted. Not anymore. So the Democrat establishment attacked Bernies socialism, and he cratered.
Now heres the rub, Trump hasnt even started with Biden yet. Besides Biden being a senile old coot with obvious brain issues, his agenda really isnt moderate. 4 trillion in new taxes. Raising the corporate tax from 21% to 28% will kill the economy. Back to open borders. Not to mention, making Beto head of his gun agenda will scare the heck out of the entire south. Seriously, has anyone read Biden's proposals on his website? They are pretty extreme. I think he wrote them himself, because they go on for pages and pages. There's no way he'll remember all of it, and is going to get tripped up at the debates. Once he gets the nomination, its going to be like "release the Kracken". This narrative that hes some kind of moderate will disappear. Once Trump is done with him, he'll be exposed for being completely out of touch, and out of his mind.
@Sports Medicine Ummm. No.
Add the NYTimes to the list of reasons for Bernie’s fall. I’ve never seen a newsroom or editorial page so hellbent on negative coverage. You all will rue your lopsided coverage when Biden folds to Trump’s onslaught
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Cable news, network television, mass media, NYT, NPR & Democratic Party collusion, all combined, were instrumental in sinking the Sanders campaign.
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The other aspect of coronavirus to consider: Biden should campaign via TV and streaming, not in person. With Bloomberg money behind him, he should be able to do that. It is too dangerous for a man in his 70's to run a normal handshaking, in-person campaign while the orange menace in the white house has allowed an epidemic to run loose in our country.
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Biden's wins do not need to be overanalyzed. One simple reason Trump won was that he was not Hillary Clinton. Many Clinton voters in 2016 held their nose when they voted for her, e.g.: David Frum. Biden does not have the Clinton problem. He still has broad appeal as evidenced by the past few weeks and he has an optimistic approach to politics and life. Hopefully Klobuchar will be his running mate so that he avoids the fatal mistake made by John McCain.
This year it is not the economy, stupid. It is not COVID19. It's replacing the current stupid president, stupid and returning to normalcy and decency. Only then can the serious problems facing our county and world be reasonably addressed.
I sincerely disagree. I do not think Sanders's defeat is related to coronavirus at all.
The real reason for his defeat is not due to the mistakes that he made, mainly it is due to the consolidation of the moderate voters, due to the consolidation of the so-called "establishment”. The endorsement of Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg before Super Tuesday, the endorsement of establishment senator and other leaders, these actually made Biden win.
Imagine what would happen for South Carolina Primary if Biden has no endorsement from Clyburn.
Imagine what would happen for Super Tuesday if Biden has no endorsement from Klobuchar and Buttigieg.
Another reason for Sanders' defeat is because of Elizabeth Warren.
Till now, Warren still does not endorse Sanders. She only dropped after Super Tuesday.
Imagine what would happen if she drops before Super Tuesday.
Imagine what would happen if she endorses Sanders before Super Tuesday.
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The main motivation of voters is now CALM vs CHAOS.
A revolution just doesn't feel right when most folks are in a jangle. There is neither the energy for bombast (Trump's or Sander's) nor for radical change (Trump's or Sander's).
Maybe Biden should modify his pitch from restoring the soul of America to establishing calm competence, rational process and no stealth assaults on Medicare & Social Security (payroll tax cuts).
While Trump insists on his perfection & genius, Democrats should focus on reality, without shouting.
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Sanders lost because his message is essentially the same as Trump's and voters are tired of it: someone's out to get you, its unfair, and you have to get them first.
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Smartest thing you've written yet, Douthat.
Ross, I know you have so many column inches a week you must fill, and some weeks those column inches are filled with, shall we say, less than illuminating commentary. Sorry to say, this is one of those columns. I’ll give you this, though. As stretches go, this is one of your better ones.
To those who claim Biden’s mental faculties are slipping: if in fact they are, he’ll be mentally fit and humble enough to surround himself with brilliant people. People he’ll listen to. Then there’s our current POTUS, who’s mentally unsound, surrounded by sycophants and only listens to Fox News and himself.
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Always be compassionate and competent, for the Acts of God are inevitable. Be ready, have extra oil for your lamps, for you do not know the hour.
A 10% tax on all prescription drug ads could easily fund a few US laboratories to maintain cutting edge testing and vaccine development capabilities.
If it is non-profit, it is most reliably funded by taxation. Taxation reaches the indifferent and deadbeats that charity misses.
An interesting argument. My own take is that the coronavirus is largely irrelevant to Biden's impending consolidation of his victory over Sanders. The seeds of that victory were laid before the national focus shifted to the virus.
It will, however, be recorded as a major theme in what will turn out to be Biden's surprisingly strong victory over Trump. As Hoover was blamed for mishandling the Depression so will Trump for mishandling the coronavirus response and the related stock market crash.
Seriously Ross? By the time the new President is sworn in Covid19 will have done what it will. Is it not more likely that Democrats didn’t like the way the first few states went and decided to back their default choice: four more years of Obama.
The Coronavirus may have strengthened Joe Biden at a critical moment of his campaign, but its affects, I believe, originated more from the wildfire recoil contagion away from Donald Trump, not from Bernie Sanders. This emerging pandemic has quickly exposed our empty, incompetent and clearly ineffectual President far more acutely - and with greater political backlash - than kids in cages, the Mueller Report, the recent Impeachment drama, etc. The logical default choice, given the Democratic options come South Carolina and Super Tuesday, had to be Biden. An unlucky break for Sanders; a fortunate one for the Democratic Party and this country.
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It may well be that a nonpartisan pandemic urged many people toward the safety and comfort of known stability (Biden) over radical experiment (Sanders). But do really think Trump's narcissistic bungling of leadership over the virus did nothing to shape that trend? Not even worth mentioning?
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The Democrats have coalesced around Joe Biden, and his path to the nomination seems unimpeded. Will Jo show up for the debate this coming Sunday? It is the last hurdle he will have to face. His cognitive abilities certainly are troubling to those who support the “anyone but Trump“ candidate.
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CoVID19 may actually make this the Medicare-for-all election in the end. This story is still being written and most of the people reading the New York Times have no idea what it is like to choose between an ER visit and rent for the month. I’m a family doctor and I see that our fractured health insurance system is going to be a big deal in the coming months.
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Disagree. Voters are looking for that candidate who is most likely to defeat Trump. Biden, for all his (slight) imperfections, is quite acceptable to the mainstream terrified by the possibility of four more years of chaos, ineptness and institutional mendacity.
Many of Sanders' programs have merit and address needs like income inequality that are not going away.
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In the future the story of Joe's victory this primary season won't be told only through the words of historians, but also by the recorded evidence and now and forever more that evidence will show Jim Clyburn stepping up the the mike and fulsomely endorsing Biden a few short hours before the South Carolina voting began. That was history, and all history really needs to know to understand what happened to derail the hopes and dreams of Bernie Sanders.
Joe Biden is the formula for the reworking of the Republican party. Once he wins in November, the R's can jettison the mean-spirited ,short- sighted , golfing half-time ,vindictive Trump . They can then welcome back the Goldwater, Reagan, Bush and even some
Tea Party ,Republicans. They will put the part back on a rational conservative agenda that comports with the Constitution. Then we will have two competitive American parties again.
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Even without a pandemic, Democratic voters are living in fear. The fear of a second Trump term still trumps the fear of the pandemic. And that naked, cold fear is what’s delivering this primary to Biden, at least in the margins he’s winning. He certainly hasn’t done much to earn those margins.
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It's really not at all as complicated as all that. Sanders lost because he was foolish to count of young voters who prefer the ease of upvotes, memes and likes to the moderately more arduous task of actually voting. And he lost because however well intentioned (or even needed) his ideas were, they were all going to be dead on arrival. Voters did not have a stomach for four more years of gridlock and partisan sniping.
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I don't know if these were corona primaries - but maybe that is a good way to frame it.
We need a person who will focus on fixing everything that Trump destroyed - actually putting in all the tremendous people that Trump said he'd find - and rebuilding our government.
The pandemic highlights why we need good people in government, and why government is not, as Reagan claimed, the problem, and why drowning it in a bathtub is foolish.
Because SOMEONE has to know where critical drugs are manufactured, how to get hold of hospital supplies and most importantly, what direction to give schools, businesses, institutions, cities and governments about how to manage containment and quarantine. Someone has to give guidance to hospitals, to state departments of health. Someone has to order enough test kits.
Sanders helped us to understand that progressive change is necessary; Biden is the candidate who helps us understand that change is impossible if you have no one to implement it.
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"He (Sanders) was vanquished only by an act of God."
For Douthat, from the beginning of time, (about 6,000 years ago), to an impeding apocalyptic end, (long overdue at this point), everything is about God, and those he vanquishes.
Douthat's ideas reflect his religious obsessions, not reality. Younger voters, who Sanders excoriated for not turning out to vote for him in substantial numbers, were not the least bit concerned about Coronavirus on Super Tuesday when Sanders faced massive losses, neither were blacks, who turned out for Biden in enormous numbers, and who Sanders bizarrely now pretends are the "Corporate Elite".
Before Super Tuesday Sanders already failed to increase turnout, lost by a huge margin in a state with a large percentage of black voters (South Carolina), and received only 25% in a primary he dominated with a 22 point majority in 2016 (New Hampshire).
Sanders' strategy was to join his Socialism with outrage culture, increase turnout among young voters, black voters, white working class and rural voters, as well a suburban women.
It blew up in his face.
Turnout for Biden among black voters was enormous, rivaling Obama's support. Sanders' Socialism is toxic to Suburban women who led Democrats to retake the House. Biden won women by double-digit margins. Finally, Sanders' embracing outrage culture alienated socially conservative working-class and rural white voters, who chose Biden.
Your god and his Coronavirus had nothing to do with any of this.
How in the world does this writer think Bernie Sanders' losses or rather, Joe Biden's propped up campaign have to do with coronavirus? The Sanders campaign is full of great plans and ideas, with compassion for all. Joe Biden would be a caretaker but we need a whole lot more than that. What Sanders did wrong was falling into the rabbit hole dug by the recently elected strident and inflexible (true) leftists like Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and the Justice Democrats. Nobody likes a bully, and they come across that way even though Bernie Sanders is anything but. Sanders needed to see that more clearly and not cleave with her, as she is very young and her idealism trumps being practical. Sanders had that pragmatism, which in this election he lost, for example, when he was rigid in everyone go on MFA or bust. This is from his pals AOC as they call her. It wasn't a Joe Biden idea of how to win that was successful, he's not smart enough. Biden just got lucky -- it was the perfect storm -- he is the one most easily manipulated by the DNC hacks, who oppose Sanders because he is a threat to their power and their corporate donor chums. They are just like the Republicans protecting the monied class. Sanders would shake that up.
And let's hope that Americans feel that Trump is too unstable to handle future contagions and that the humanism of Biden will be a safer bet. Ultimately, Biden has made a comeback because the American left is not as crazy as the American right makes it out to be.
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It is curious, Biden could not win anything before South Carolina, but now, he is political Superman. I'm sure they will want to cancel any further debates. And, therein lies the problem.
Like Hillary, his people want to keep his personal appearances to a minimum. She had a coughing issue and was wobbly on stairs. Joe has been a 50 year gaffe machine. But, as we see every time he speaks, these are not little flubs.
He gets belligerent to people and misspeaks about everything. He wasn't arrested in South Africa. There is no such thing as an AR-14. He will get hostile with other politicians, just to show he has a spine. When it comes to Trump, he will just be a melting hot mess. Trump can go 90 minutes on one breath. You might not like Trump, but he's alert.
Voters need to know the truth about Biden's abilities before the convention. The voters are owed at least that much.
Epidemic or not, Sanders would have gone down to crushing defeat even against a widely despised incumbent president.
I was hoping Sanders would be the candidate. Like Hillary, he'd be the only Democrat in the country who could possibly lose against Donald Trump.
Biden has a shot at the presidency because the pundit class was spectacularly wrong about Clinton’s assured win in 2016 and Joe’s imminent defeat this year. If either guarantee was correct he’s in the history books. No doubt Ross and friends will get the next election right.
The timing is off to credit the corona virus with Bernie's loss. People weren't focusing on it on Super Tuesday. Another simple thing was coming into play: Super Tuesday was the decisive moment in the primary because it was the first big tally with a representative sample of voters, the specter of Bernie being the nominee had become all too real after the first primaries, and Sanders, full of hubris, had opened his mouth to remind everyone how divisive, uncompromising, and unrealistic he is (praising Cuba?!). Everyone, but especially Buttigeg and Klobuchar, knew it was time to suppress egos in the name of winning over Trump, which Bernie was never ever going to do. Sanity finally kicked in.
So, confusingly, because the ACA is still a mess that leaves millions with
no care and many millions more with “plans” that would immediately bankrupt their holders in case of a medical emergency, it helped Biden to win? Why? So we can ensure a future in which our citizens lack healthcare as well? What is wrong with so-called moderates such that they don’t care about their fellow citizens?
@Philippe Egalité. Great stump speech for the true believers, but how on earth does that hyperbole help attract everyone else. That’s not how compassionate people communicate. Telling.
I’ve been telling friends for a few months that the one thing that could really hurt Trump in 2020 is if something came along that required actual competence in governance. Ahoy, coronavirus. We literally don’t have a federal government right now. We have a “President” who watches cable news and plays golf. That’s all he does. Fully 40% of normal executive branch jobs in a normal administration were never filled in this one. Then they made the ingenious decision that we didn’t need any disease response experts in the federal government anymore, cutting our overseas epidemic response funding, and cutting funding to the CDC.
We got our first case of the coronavirus the same day as South Korea. They’ve tested 5,000 people per million, we’ve tested 5. Clearly this will get worse before it gets better.
What people want now is competence in governance. Bernie can go to Cuba if it’s so great.
Biden will lose to Trump even with the virus .
Biden will alienate the progressives and not only lose the presidency they will lose the house to low voter turnout. Trump with control of all levers of government and a mandate. Im grabbing popcorn.
This is pure Sanders escapist fantasy. His losses are never Sanders’s fault. They’re everyone else’s fault, apparently including God’s.
The simple fact is that the majority of Democrats don’t want Sanders or his policies. It was that way in 2016 and it’s still that way. Most of us don’t think Sanders is the right person to see this country through the very many challenges ahead. The coronavirus is just one of those many challenges.
Sanders has had two very fair shots on goal. This round the Dems even adjusted the rules at his behest. No more excuses. Get over it, Bros.
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This is a silly analysis, Super Tuesday occurred before Coronavirus panic had set in. Safety in Biden, yes, but it was political safety in the candidate least likely to alienate voters vs Trump, but blaming Coronavirus for that sentiment is post facto revisionism.
If Douthat is correct, Donald Trump will be the first incumbent president defeated not by an epidemic but by his callous and incompetent response to it. Biden or Sanders would have reacted totally differently from Trump. First, they would not have pooh-poohed it and lied about its magnitude. Second, they would have not held rallies to get reelected while health experts all cautioned against large congregations of persons. Third, they would not have boasted that they have the same knowledge as epidemiologists. Convid-19 exposed Trump as the petty, self-absorbed man he is. We need a real president to deal with the next health crisis.
Our country is not even close to where it was in 2016. We do not understand the full long term effects of the Paul Ryan (remember him?) Tax Giveaway to the Very, Very Rich, but we do understand how this has underfunded vital public health services, like the CDC and NIH. The idea of "Medicare for All" seemed fresh in 2016 when we could imagine a Women in the White House. Now, we hope for the basics, like toilet paper and hand sanitizer. Bernie is a dream, Biden is reality. Republicans are relentless. A "payroll tax cut" might give short term relief, but it will affect the funding of guess what? Medicare and Medicaid. This is not a time for Bernie to despair, because in a Biden Administration, there is much to be to be repaired.
Um. It’s because Bernie is not a Democrat. That will always be the reason.
It’s not about the coronavirus; it’s about the government’s response to the coronavirus, and the fact that Republicans are so obsessed with ruling that they are incapable of governing. Every unexpected disaster in recent history that has occurred under a Republican administration has caught America flat-footed, from 9/11 to Katrina to Corona to a hurricane ravaged Puerto Rico, to the 2008 market crash. It should be clear by now; Republicans can’t govern. They are incompetent. If it weren’t coronavirus exposing this fact, it would be something else.
One other subplot to the Coronavirus cause that benefits Biden, is Trump’s atrocious handling of the crisis. The stock market’s fall will be considered in the history books as the barometer of the lack of confidence in his leadership during a crisis.
Geez, Ross, what utter nonsense. Ever hear of South Carolina? Or of 5 loyal and smart democratic moderates who withdrew the minute they read the message from the core supporters of democracy? Once away from the lily-white or hospitality-union states, other candidates looked too risky for everyone's one&only concern--ridding the planet of the monster who would destroy us if it feeds his ego or fills his coffers. Bernie promised free tuition and debt forgiveness, so he locked up the youth vote. The rest of us can't be bought so easily, and we have our eyes on the prize--a Trump-Free world. All else is meaningless. A 48 year veteran of democratic politics may be long past his prime, but we trust him to clear out the Oval Office and pick a good VP....
I am not saying this doesn't matter-- clearly the choice of Democratic nominee to defeat Trump matters. But in comparison to the coronavirus outbreak, who cares about state primary races??? All coronavirus content should be front-and-center on the NYT pages, and content related to the Democratic primary should take an obvious backseat.
Clearly either one of these candidates would be doing a better job than Trump in managing this global health crisis, so right now, the choice between them is of far less relevant importance than the crisis itself.
We need to reorder our priorities if we are more interested in the winner of the Michigan party primary than a global pandemic.
Interesting it will be indeed if evangelicals come to agree with that last sentence of yours.
Sanders failed because the left wing of the Democratic Party marched ever more to the left.
In liberal parlance, Sanders demonized the "other," meaning oil companies and billionaires.
We need to pull together to survive.
And extreme left-wing rhetoric has hurt instead of helped.
In preparation for the election, I read "On Fire," by Naomi Klein. I wanted to understand what the left understood as the Green New Deal.
Take climate change. I believe the evidence is overwhelming that climate change is caused by population growth.
But Klein mentions overpopulation only once in her book, on page 45, where she says that the "Christchurch killer" "rails against population growth" and regards "migration into Europe" and "environmental warfare." She seems to subscribe to the left-wing trope that it is racist to attribute global warming to population growth.
This book and the Sanders campaign repeatedly demonize the big oil companies. Yes, we need to shift away from fossil fuels. But we don't have the technology for a full shift yet.
The Prince of Saudi Arabia has entered a price war with Russia to drive the competition out of business for the long run advantage of his Aramco, with an almost $2 trillion market cap. This dominating oil company can drive other players like XOM and CVX out of business.
The Dow is collapsing because of this price war. No, we are not ready to drive big oil out of business.
And the Saudi's will demonstrate how ridiculous that Sanders idea is.
Ross, it’s not a corona virus election, it’s a plunging Wall Street stock market election related in large part on the effects of corona virus on interruption of commerce. It’s all about money as usual. It’s the stock market drop that has people angry. And when angry voters are angry they vote for the non-incumbent, just because their mad.
Please don’t do Bernie Sanders an injustice by comparing him in any way to Donald Trump. Sanders wants legislation that helps people. Trump wants legislation that helps Trump financially.
You know, I’m pretty hard on Bret Stephens. I offer him no quarter when it comes to his conservative editorials. But this piece by the other Times resident conservative isn’t just easily debated, it is downright nonsensical drivel not supported by any semblance of actual facts or analysis. Congratulations Ross, you finally outdid Bret.
One could easily argue the exact opposite of his position, that the coronavirus and any mismanagement should have vastly aided Sanders and his quest for a single payer healthcare system. That it should have effectively sunk Biden by showing that a member of the old guard establishment wasn’t ready to tackle big public health problems like a viral epidemic.
But that didn’t happen. Because there isn’t any supporting facts that back up even a correlation between attitudes about handling the virus and who voters go for in the primaries. This editorial is a mess.
Young folks failed their citizenship. It’s not that you failed Bernie; in the end, I would not have voted for him. You failed our country by not participating. In the 18th century, the American Revolution was fought by young folks, who were told by Washington, if you go back to your farms worrying about the harvest, in a short time you won’t have a farm to worry about. In the 21st century, if you don’t stand up for your country and vote, you won’t have your medical to go back to. You won’t have a descent education to propel you forward in life. You won’t be necessary.
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Senator Sanders turned off the majority of Democrats well in advance of covid-19. His own choices and positions and personality doomed his campaign, not a virus. I get that young people — one of my own kids among them — want to believe his promises, as do plenty of Americans on the ropes. We all want a better future. The first step to getting there is putting Joe Biden in the White House.
"... this is now the coronavirus election, against whose stark existential stakes all normal political battles must give way."
Do we really think that Trump will rely on racist and sexist appeals, Hunter Biden, Putin's help, voter suppression tactics and actual policies to win this year? His poll numbers will be plummeting as coronavirus persists in the US -- due to his incompetence and that of his VP and Cabinet -- while the stock market continues its chaotic downward spiral and unemployment numbers rise sharply. What is Trump's best option at this point to stave off defeat in November? I would say invoking presidential emergency powers at some point this year. Trump has a broad array of powers at his disposal. That is how he can rig the election in his favor. Remember how Trump told us during the 2016 campaign that the system is rigged? Why did he say that? He said it because he projected onto the electorate that he rigs the system. That's what he does. We will be fools not to expect this obvious move from him. And we must do all we can to guard against it. There really is no time to lose.
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Ross, the media beat down Bernie's message. The Sanders platform was quite main street. The media, backed by conservative millionaire/billionaire status quo types, didn't want to turn off the money faucet of the American worker. Biden is status quo - keep getting bankrupt from healthcare and education. Keep scaring people into accepting corruption at all levels of society. Ross, have the guts to expose it.
Me Douthat is correct that Democrats see an existential threat...but it was long before Coronavirus. Trump is the threat, and his hollowing out and corruption of government so that could not and would not respond to anything except his personal interests was evident to Democrats. Coronavirus is making it evident to Republicans.
Sanders inflexibility has always been his Achilles' Heel.
I am a Democrat. I find both Bernie and Joe boring and uninspiring. Both candidates don’t have what it takes to win the electoral college. Neither candidate can outperform trump in a debate in my opinion. I have now turned to drinking to cope. Trump will win if either of these two old, boring, men are the nominee.
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Ross -- we may disagree often (and mightily), but smart is smart, and your column never fails to stimulate my thinking. So, thank you. (Oh, and today, we agree utterly.)
Two plausible stories. But both are wrong. In 5 words:
Jim Clyburn and South Carolina.
Clyburn put the fear of God in Biden and lit a fire under him, helping him win decisively in South Carolina (which may be THE most important early primary state for both parties...it was how George Bush took the nomination back from John McCain.) Because the foundation and backbone of the Democratic Party is Black voters, particularly Black WOMEN voters.
For some reason, despite Black voters' affection for Bill Clinton, that never transferred to Hillary (I suspect because she took them for granted). Biden, of course, seems more like the continuation of Obama, who still towers over the Party. This, of course, gave them a path to help him crush on super Tuesday, and again, last night on "Little Super Tuesday". Bernie Sanders, who seems to connect better with Latino voters than Biden, just cannot reach Black voters.
If Biden goes on to win the nomination and Presidency, all America will owe an even BIGGER debt to Black Americans for saving us from the destructive horror that is Donald Trump.
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Just STOP, Ross.
This election has NOTHING to do with Covid19. To posit that people voted between Vice President Biden and Sanders based on that is simply fox "news" brand Fear Mongering.
I get it. You want the GOP to win. You lean rightward.
But it is no excuse for blatant lies, sir.
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This is what I thought from the South Carolina vote on. Americans had decided we need a sure bet on someone to combat the Corona virus (COVID 19) in the presidency. If people can charge that Trump's win was from God, than Biden's win can be deemed an 'act of God' too. Trump's unforeseen grand departure will be too, as will all the Republicans in leadership who supported him. He has been a 'phony' president or 'fake' if you prefer. He has no ability to lead. He has played the system that they created to 'fake out' the public to gain their deregulation and tax cuts, while simultaneously taking healthcare away from millions and resisting caring for the poor, the orphan and alien. Justice will be served. The day of reckoning is coming.
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Sanders deep-sixed himself with me when he refused to release his medical records as he promised. Sanders finished himself with me when he quite passively allowed his most rabid supporters and surrogates to name-call and denigrate those who supported other Democratic candidates. Sanders cut-off my support when it became quite clear that the Russians are also using his candidacy to help give Trump a second term. In fact, Sanders killed any support I might have given when he he helped to get Donald Trump elected in 2016 with his antics during the end of the primary and the beginning of the general. Make no mistake, I would have voted for him if he had become our party's nominee--although he is not a Democrat, but only pretends to be one when it allows him to run for President under our aegis. I agree with many of Sanders' policies but I can't get past his cranky personality, his lousy record as a Senator, and his tacit support of his most rabid fans and their ugliness.
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One other subplot to the Coronavirus cause that benefits Biden, is Trump’s atrocious handling of the crisis. The stock market’s fall will be considered in the history books as the barometer of the lack of confidence in his leadership during a crisis.
'Dear Maeve,
Chime in when you can, and let me know how Eire is faring. The country here is closing down in quiet-mode with this airborne virus, but we are uniting with Joe Biden in the lead and the sun is shining bright (Sanders with grace accepted a fairly honorable defeat). Biden is on a roll and so are you, let me know, kiddo, what I can do if you need any help returning home, for you are both 'Come-Back Kids', and thanks to this hopeful inspiration, I may believe again one day in the Love of God'.
Interesting but not credible. Bernie picked a strategy and harped on it, even expanded it for years. Impossible to “pivot” from that in real time. You live by the sword of strategic choices and either win or die from that sword.
I’ll say this for Joe. I think he handled his moment with the gun rights guy perfectly. It’s time to stop letting these people bully us.
I'll vote and say the Cuba comments did him in, and exposed him to what many people were worrying about ... he confirmed it himself.
Sanders made bad choices and was too arrogant to make concessions. I do agree that Biden was not expecting to be the Democratic candidate.
Another factor that benefited Biden is the Hilary syndrome. In 2016, so many people disliked Hilary so much, that is disliked women so much, that Sanders got those "against Hillary" votes. That is the reason he became a viable contender.
Now the one to dislike, ironically, is Sanders who in my opinion, is not very likable. Always angry, always complaining. Running against a very likable contender.
Still, now, voters do not like women that much.
The Democrats are already laying out a narrative to explain their loss in November. Of course, as part of that face saving talk, it will be said that the loss was due to external circumstances; never the fault of the Dems for choosing a poor candidate and making their entire platform consist of hate Trump planks.
Now that Biden is doing well in the primaries, it’s time to reverse engineer current events to explain Sanders falling behind. Rather than do real investigative journalism and look at more unsavory possibilities, such as fraud and DNC manipulation, lets just spin out clever opinion pieces to put the electorate back to sleep.
The headline is that this is just another way for Bernie Sanders to claim that he didn't lose, he was robbed.
For once, could a pundit tell the truth? Apparently not, even in victory.
1) Primary voters are informed voters who follow the news. Dem voters follow legitimate news outlets like NYT, WaPo and NPR.
2) The ratio of against-Bernie comments and articles vs neutral in mainstream semi-liberal media was probably 50 to 1 -- reinforced by headlines that constantly emphasized Bernie's non-electability even when the content was balanced with a decent analysis. Not everyone has the time to read everything one would like to: often one paragraph is all we can handle (see stats from websites.)
The ratio of 50 to 1 against Bernie is not the fruit of some deranged delusional mirage. It is a quick calculation made in the hottest days of the contest before Super Tue. Dozens of articles about the African American vote flooded the media, all with the same identical message.
None of those articles, mind you, was openly favorable to Biden. Most of them condescendingly conceded that he is re-heated soup, but at least he is conventional enough not to force anyone into a deep rethinking of the profound structural upheaval necessary to repair this broken-down system of plutocratic right-wing anarchy.
So, congratulations to all of you, Ross and "moderate" comrades. You won. Now you should feel free to come clean and admit you put the finger on the scale until the number came out just right.
@College Prof. People voting and advocating for their preference is not conspiracy. It’s democracy. Sheesh.
On closer inspection though you have to admit that Sanders re-ran his 2016 race. Einstein said that repeating the same act and expecting a different result is the mark of lunacy.
Where were all the young Bernie voters, so riled by issues like college debt, climate change, assault rifles, racism, homophobia, etc. Couldn't they put down their phones long enough to vote? There was no "young" surge.
It cannot be a coincidence that both Trump and Sanders developed such rabid followings in 2016, and both ran against the same woman. And just as Sanders underperformed radically this time around in Michigan, I expect Trump will as well. Sadly, in this country, an old white man is the only symbol of leadership for a lot of people.
That’s a stretch of Pilates’ proportion, Mr. Douthat. You’ll hurt yourself if you hold it for too long.
If the coalescing of forces was prompted by an act of God, it was common sense kicking in.
1
Sorry Ross, your piece is an example of fanciful thinking. Biden surged because most people are sick and tired of the confuse and control daily chaos of Trump world. As exit polls showed last night, people voted with a number of concerns, one of which was, who can beat Trump, Biden or Sanders. Two weeks ago there was a group of candidates who were mostly just right or left of the center and, Sanders. I think the electorate was waiting for a break out moment and Rep. Clyburn provided that signal. Those of us against Trump have been waiting to plant the flag and surge ahead with one candidate, corona virus or no. Biden will cleanse the nation of Trump's malfeasance and ineptitude. He will ask smart, knowledgeable, professionals to join his administration. Along with the fact that the House and Senate have a greater chance to stay blue and turn blue with Biden as the nominee. Sanders followers will see some of which they desire, but right now, America needs to heal, not be riven by extremes.
1
The story is of moderates consolidating behind Biden and young people and African Americans not turning out to vote for Bernie!
Did Trump and his campaign believe that the virus would go away and withheld vital testing in the belief that it would upend the Democrats rallies, primaries, and voter turnout, and yes, even the Democratic National Convention? Horrible but believable.
No doubt there will be historians, especially in the future when today's timeline becomes fuzzy, that will cherry-pick data from events that will appear to indicate that Covid-19 was a strong reason for Biden's surge.
But Biden's comeback started in SC. Then Super Tuesday on March 3 indicated game pretty much over. A week ago, for most voters the virus was still just an irritant limited to an unfortunate few in Washington, Cali, and cruise ships.
Bernie is on the ropes not because of an act of God (Covid-19), nor due to the policy goals of Biden. The Democratic Electorate has put him there because they know deeply what Trump has done to America and rightfully expect that the worst is yet to come. The Nation deserves many of the Progressive ideals, but survival is the correct choice for now. We cannot reform and improve the United States if it has been destroyed by Trump in his second reign. Virus 45 is a larger threat to America than Covid-19.
1
Two arguments, one correct and one pretty silly, from Ross. Absolutely right, Sanders never touched the soul of the Democratic Party, had a constituency that just doesn’t vote for the likes of him - or just doesn’t vote, and managed to seal his doom by suggesting that Fidel Castro would have made a fine running mate.
The coronavirus did not this primary make. We Democrats know Mama Nature is in charge, unlike you conservatives who think Rush Limbaugh can call a deadly pandemic a cold and presto, it becomes a cold. We know science is now our best bet and Trump our worst. We know it.
Not one vote shifted from Bernie to Joe because of a rampant germ. Unless by rampant germ you mean Donald Trump.
1
Either Bernie was vanquished by an act of Biology, or everything is "an act of God".
What a stretch. You lose credibility with stories like this. Biden won for one reason...not because of the prominent South Carolina person backed him, not because of the virus, but because a majority of Democrats realize he is the best chance to beat Trump. Statistical correlation <> causation.
2
Actually, it’s the Trump virus that has infected our country. The cure is coming in about 8 months.
2
You may be right that a non-partisan pandemic led many voters to prefer known stability (Biden) over radical experiment (Sanders). But don't you think Trump's narcissistic bungling had something to do with shaping that trend? To the degree it did, this is as much the Trump election as anything to do with coronavirus.
Douthat says "history likes to keep things simple." As a person admittedly on one of the lower of the historical profession, let me rephrase that. Bad history likes to keep things simple. And a history that modeled Super Tuesday as a "flight to safety" in the face of COVID-19 would be bad without a doubt.
However, since Douthat's a conservative pundit, the likelihood of his having ever understood or appreciated anything but bad history is practically nil, so this point of view doesn't surprise me.
C'mon Ross, I'm trying to take you seriously. The big wins were South Carolina and then Super Tuesday. The coronavirus was on people's mind but not as a mortal threat in this country, and I don't see a way to claim it influenced the voting 2 weeks ago.
Your argument would be more plausible if the coronavirus continues to infect people across the world, and the Trump's administration response continues to be inept.
It's still more plausible to claim that people were choosing Biden due to electability and the consolidation among Democratic moderate candidates than to claim it was due to the mortal threat of the coronavirus.
Wrong. As a strong Biden supporter, but formerly also fond of Buttigieg and Klobuchar and even Warren, the tidal movement towards Biden occurred because of the stark evidence of African American support for Biden on Super Tuesday. What had been theoretical became undeniably evident. I doubt that African Americans needed a coronavirus to indicate to them which way to vote. Many pundits have written about how Trumps actions this year in response to the coronavirus merely underscore, underline observations of narcissism, self dealing, thinking only of what is good for his reelection, Trump's crushing meanness, lying, insistence on fealty. All these things the core Democrats feared when Hillary was running in 2016. Trump never fails each day to prove that he cannot be presidential. he cannot govern. He cannot think beyond himself and the base he needs as support.
Very astute (this time). Confirmation provided by the fact that in Michigan (I think it was), a majority of voters preferred "government" run health insurance rather than private. That majority then went to Biden: amazing. Why? probably because they preferred him in a "crisis" as other polling questions had it, over Sanders. Same with the polling question, Does the capitalist economy need a major shakeup? Majority or near-majority: yes. Who do you vote for nonetheless, Biden. Why? he's "safe." O.k., now let's hurry and remove the very-stable genius currently "in charge."
Agreed!
I agree 99% with Bernie, but I cringe a bit at his 100% Medicare dogma because of how I perceive it affects many. I mentioned this to a couple low-level Bernie people to no avail. Communication at Bernie is poor.
Now he's got to work wholeheartedly for Joe.
Finally! A realistic understanding of an unrealistic American electorate. Thanks Ross!
The Corona virus had nothing to do with Biden taking over the race.
Sanders support turned out to be largely a mirage that was amplified by the power of social media and the hysterics of his ardent followers.
And yes, the fragmentation of the mainline Democratic field.
Thankfully, sanity has regained a foothold in the party.
I was never comfortable with the idea of Bernie as nominee, although I had reluctantly made peace with it when it appeared to be headed in that direction not long ago.
This was not an "act of god". This was some fancy, back room power politics of the kind that scuttled Bernie's campaign in 2016.
2
Douthout, that's a bunch of stuff. The party, and the voters, simply saw Sanders for what he is. The other candidates saw two choices: Stay in and support Sanders' strategy to do it like trump did, or get out and support the voters' rejection of Sanders. They got out. Sanders' strategy didn't work.
1
I think Mr. Douthat is putting the cart before the horse. Sanders lost the broader Democratic Party long before Corona manifested itself in the American consciousness. Simply put, Democrats wanted Trump out more than they wanted Bernie's ideology in. Sanders' mistake was in not seeing that earlier. He had a lot of time to grab back the center, adjust his policy positions to attract the moderate wing, or at least some of it. But his intransigence scared Democrats even more, and thus gave impetus to the other candidates bowing out early to boost Biden. Sanders has only himself to blame.
3
It is clear what is happening.
The people are exhausted. We are tired of chaos and disruption and division and lies and destruction of our country, our global standing and democracy.
But we want and need social change and progress.
It seems to have come down to a choice between Mr Rogers and Che Guevara with Mr Rogers is winning the day.
3
Covid-19 is a game changer, because it has effectively ended the 2020 Democratic Primary. As this deadly virus continues to spiral out of control, as it will continue to do in part to the current Administration, all Americans (including Trumpers) will demand that their President be a Commander-in-Chief, a chief executive that can manage the crisis. Americans want a real take charge kind of leader that will make them feel safe in this crisis.
That's not Bernie Sanders message, Sanders has stated that his aim as President is to be a community organizer and help shepherd the millions and millions of people to becoming another Denmark (a goal that I largely support, btw), but this Covid-19 epidemic has put Bernie, the social movement leader, on the back burner. Maybe, the Office of the President is not the place to lead a social reform movement from since Presidents have to almost always be crisis managers as their first order of business.
After all, what good is free healthcare, free college and campaign finance reform to you, if you are already dead from coronavirus?
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@SparkyTheWonderPup In the middle of a crisis...never change horses.
Obama was able to win in 2008 because the majority of the crisis had been dealt with and Bush left the next President with the decision on how best to spend that TARP money.
Sadly, that was probably a mistake.
If this is resolved by November, voters will determine how the Federal Government responded to it in spite of the media once again ratcheting up the volume to 10/10.
I guess it's true..if if bleeds it leads.
Fear based media in 2020 is much more profitable than taking the high road.
7
@SparkyTheWonderPup Looking at Biden's history of submitting to GOP wars, tax cuts, and international trade deals in pursuit of the status quo -- don't get too hopeful.
17
@SparkyTheWonderPup
Spot on!
America absolutely needs relief from this insane man pretending to be president.
But hang on America, we must expect Trump, with Putin's help, to go completely off the rails now with Biden as his opponent.
24
The day after Super Tuesday was before the corona news broke, right? Bernie was up in Detroit pushing his tired old shtick about NAFTA and I said, "He's up there talking to union members who actually know Chrysler moved out and started sourcing parts from Japan and Germany 15 years before NAFTA, and US Steel broke their union and offshored 20 years before NAFTA."
"And who's he running against? A guy who was in the administration which saved the US auto industry."
I think your teammate, Mr. Edsall, has a much more compelling analysis.
6
Everything I've read says voter turnout was strong. Bernie never expanded his small base. What's so hard about living in reality?
7
"He was vanquished only by an act of God."
Really?
Senator Sanders was beat by pursing the perfect (unattainable), at the expense of the good (attainable). Senator Sanders was beat by alienating anyone who did not agree with him 100% on every issue.
COVID-19 was not the deciding factor in this primary.
3
No doubt some will alibi the Sanders campaign this way, but the truth is far closer to the first narrative of rigid ideological blind spots than the second of outside, black swan event. And if Sanders’ supporters take refuge in the fairy tail and fail to come me to grips with the harder truths of how they lost, they will make the same mistakes again and remain a disappointed and increasingly disintegrating faction going forward.
Sort of makes you wonder if that isn’t why a columnist who devoutly wishes just that outcome for progressives is using his platform to promote the coronavirus alibi.
5
It is my understanding that a number of Sander's supporters from four years ago migrated to Warren this year. They were not too pleased with the attacks on both Warren and her supporters by Sander's people.
5
@Daniel A. Greenbaum Yup!
Hours after Warren dropped out of the race, Rachel Maddow asked Warren to weigh in on the "untoward attacks by Senator Sanders' supporters...against you." Maddow referenced attacks calling the Massachussetts Senator a "snake" and a "traitor."
After Warren lost every Super Tuesday state, placing no higher than third in any race, she faced online pressure from Sanders' supporters to drop out and endorse him. When Warren left the race, she did so without making an endorsement. On Twitter, a subset of purported Sanders supporters claimed that Warren was hurting his chances for being the nominee.
"It's not just about me, I think it's a real problem with this online bullying and sort of organized nastiness," Warren said. "I'm talking about some really ugly stuff that went on."
When Maddow asked if Warren if bad behavior online was a particular problem with Sander's supporters, Warren replied affirmatively: "It is. It just is. It's just a factual question, and it is."
As an example, Warren said that before the Nevada caucuses, rogue Sanders supporters attacked women with the labor union Unite Here, "actually published the phone numbers and home addresses of the two women, immigrant women...and really put them in fear for their families."
Nice try. But no, the evidence isn't there. Yeah, maybe some for yesterday's elections, but by then the dynamics of the race had already been set. On Super Tuesday, the markets had not panicked. Coronavirus was still something happening elsewhere. Sanders lost because his base collapsed in two places: (a) as he pointed out, the young people failed to show up, and (b) the anti-Hillary, non-college white voters decided that there was no woman to register their protest with. Conversely, the suburbanites and African-Americans, who know that change begins with getting the current occupant out of the WH, decided, in their wisdom, to go with the candidate that they believe can deliver that essential component with much more certainty than Biden. Period. People know far too little about Sanders to make the hypothetical judgment as to how he would fare if he were at the helm during this crisis. Coronavirus still probably has a role to play, but that will be in the general elections - when the incumbent will be judged for his perceived competence or lack thereof.
2
Coronavirus will affect voting turnout in the next few weeks. People will stay home rather than to mingle with other people.
No doubt some will alibi the Sanders campaign this way, but the truth is far closer to the first narrative of rigid ideological blind spots than the second of outside, black swan event. And if Sanders supporters take refuge in the fairy tail and fail to come me to grips with the harder truths of how they lost, they will make the same mistakes again and remain a disappointed and increasingly disintegrating faction.
Sort of makes you wonder if that isn’t why a columnist who devoutly wishes just that outcome for progressives is using his platform to promote for the coronavirus alibi.
1
No doubt some will alibi the Sanders campaign this way, but the truth is far closer to the first narrative of rigid ideological blind spots than the second of outside, black swan event. And if Sanders supporters take refuge in the fairy tail and fail to come me to grips with the harder truths of how they lost, they will make the same mistakes again and remain a disappointed and increasingly disintegrating faction.
Sort of makes you wonder if that isn’t why a columnist who devoutly wishes just that outcome for progressives is using his platform to promote for the coronavirus alibi.
1
Amazing the tortuous verbal acrobatics some go through in order to avoid recognizing that their guy simply lost the vote because his policies and ideology are not in line with the majority of democratic voters.
4
" it is better to deal with a difficult person or situation one knows than with a new person or situation that could be worse"
In spite of Sanders's recent popularity, many democrats and others, outside the North East don't know much about him, and less about his policy proposals.
Though he sounds like the guy who'll stand up for the many disaffected, at the end of the day, Biden is safe and many are guessing his VP choice will be agreeable to the electorate.
Biden can beat Trump!
6
I like to think that the American people are making a choice that is in some ways both simpler and more profound than those Mr. Douthat outlines: they recognized that we need to be able to talk to each other for survival's sake.
Ross might consider it too poly-sci for the American voter on average, but I think the coronavirus outbreak focused everyone's minds to the need for the shouting match to halt, if only so that we can hear ourselves think.
When action becomes necessary, suddenly the "middle" stops looking so mushy and starts looking like the practical path forward.
2
Bernie's rallies told us nothing about his support. I wonder how many of those people weren't old enough to vote. And how many were there for the party, not the candidate? Marches and protests in the 60's were largely populated by sincere people, but there was definitely a party element.
1
I think that diminishes the impact he made. look at NY times exit polling. many young people were there for Sanders, and sincerely, strongly believe in him. they have been mounting doorknocking campaigns and phone banking. Our primary was on super tuesday and they are still phone banking up here. (reaching out to other states.)
I dont support him, but also would not discredit his supporters. they are fervent. at the end of the day, we want them on our team. hope they'll decide to unite for a common cause.
@AJ Not questioning his support, just the makeup of the rally crowds. Of course, he has millions of sincere supporters. Some of the people in the rally pictures looked quite young to me, that's all. I went to events like that when I was 16, and I wasn't the only one.
Spot-on. It should also be noted that Trump's posturing and failure to appear serious at this moment makes it more likely that voters will want a candidate with copious government experience.
3
Once Biden won South Carolina, the entire party got in line. It had nothing to do with the coronavirus and everything to do with a desperation to avoid a Republican 2016, in which an outsider with a small, fanatical following took over the party. It probably didn't hurt that Bernie was promising a "revolution" in the health care industry in the middle of a pandemic, however.
2
Coronavirus? Probably more like the recently sinking 401K and IRA accounts getting more older Americans out to vote.
5
Sorry, Ross, but the pandemic has been in office for almost four years. We need Trump out and Biden is our only vaccine now.
8
Michigan voter here. Lots of people in Michigan are turned off by the Trump administration. Trump’s total mismanagement of the Coronavirus crisis just sealed the deal. Michigan has an aging population that needs protection. Voters believe Biden will protect them, Trump won’t. Older voters trust Biden more than Bernie. It is as simple as that.
5
@Boo You do realize don't you that we've had far fewer cases here in the US than in the EU whether in absolute terms or %. That is in part due to Trump closing our borders to China when he did. You're simply trying to score political points but you are wrong.
Most of the Democratic electorate is looking for someone who can defeat Trump. Early on, Biden was a mumbling and stumbling candidate. Once he convincingly swept South Carolina and spoke with greater confidence, a wide swath of the electorate who were not comfortable with Bernie for any number of reasons thought Biden could be the guy. They flocked to him because he is a comfortable choice. Biden won't shake things up, but he has demonstrated that he can appeal to a coalition that can win in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and perhaps Florida, North Carolina, and even Ohio. He now needs to pick a running mate that can lift him up where he has weaknesses.
3
In today's NY Times article on Trump's nonexistent "stimulus plan" to battle COVID-19, it states,
"Mr. Trump and his advisers are also considering using the Federal Emergency Management Agency as a vehicle to deliver funds to stimulate the economy, a move that could allow the administration to work around Congress. The president could approve major disaster declarations in a growing number of states that have seen coronavirus outbreaks, according to officials in the administration and in Congress."
Anyone who thinks Trump will use this idea for anything other than to buy votes is a fool. Just watch, if he does this the money will go mostly to red states regardless of how hard they are hit with COVID-19.
4
The coronavirus had something to do with it, but South Carolina and even the first Super Tuesday happened before the mass hysteria really started. The reason is much simpler: Bernie is extremely off-putting to all but his supporters, while the moderate vote was fractured among Biden and candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and (yes, to some extent) even Warren. If you added up all the moderate poll percentages spread among these candidates, the sum pretty much always swamped Sanders, even when the pundits were proclaiming him as the presumptive nominee. The chain-reaction consolidation of the moderate vote triggered by South Carolina just clarified what was already the case.
1
Time for Bernie to drop out and throw his support behind Biden. Time for us to start putting all our resources into winning the general election both for the Presidency AND the Senate and House. Time to start making tv ads, strengthening our organizations on the ground, and get-out-the-vote activities.
Now is the time for ALL OF US to start getting rid of Trump!
4
The Trump virus may have added a little anxiety to the election but I think had little to do with the result. Mr. Biden won because voters wanted to feel good about their vote and about the person they had voted for. They didn't have that opportunity in 2016 but will come November.
2
Maslow's Need Hierarchy is that physiological needs are primary, then needs for safety. When those are satisfied, then people can turn to needs for love, belonging, self-esteem, and self-actualization.
Biden is clearly the candidate who communicates he can handle those primary physiological and safety needs.
3
High voter turnout indicates Mr. Douthat's conclusion (if I understand it correctly) is uninformed. I believe Mr. Sanders is losing because he is not as popular among primary voters. This conclusion is supported by primary election results. A history that attributes his lesser popularity to a virus would be a history without basis in fact.
A more interesting op-ed would have analyzed the impact of coronavirus-inspired salience of medical system flaws on voter perception of candidate platforms, as both candidates have made health care reform a pivot point. Please do try again.
2
Sanders made mistakes no doubt, but the media blew them out of proportion, and virtually the entire Democratic Party echoed the effort and consolidated against Sanders -- for being, in European terms, a mainstream social democrat that might make corporations pay their fair share of taxes; that might just be able -- after a century of efforts -- to implement a national health insurance system that nearly all industrialized countries enjoy; that might be able to get through a Green New Deal, our best shot at staving off catastrophic climate change, one that exacerbates crises like the coronavirus we're seeing now, and on and on? You too, Ross, participated in this pillorying of Sanders, and you repeat the distortion of his statement about Cuba again, thereby ensuring a distorted "history" as you call it: Sanders did not excuse Castro's authoritarian regime, he simply pointed out that Castro did some good things, like the literacy campaign, as well as bad things. How many repressive regimes has the US government supported and still supports, including by Obama-Biden? There are too many to list. And yet neither you nor anybody else in the liberal media took Biden to task for not only merely saying something positive about those regimes, but actually materially and diplomatically backing them (think Obama-Biden's support for Egypt's demolition of democracy and Saudi Arabia's vicious war on Yemen). Will you start criticizing Biden for this now then that the "radical" has lot?
5
@Loup: Joe is to blame for what Joe did and Bernie is to blame for what Bernie did. How they each handled issues are also their responsibility. Stop making Bernie unaccountable. He could come back, if only he would address the women’s issues, Medicare issues and any lingering doubts about how we will pay for his agenda. This is his challenge.
@Loup
It is Democratic voter who made the sharp turn to Biden. They just want quick resolution and want to concentrate on Trump. Enough of that “race in suspension”. Bernie should drop out and let’s move to beat Trump.
Desperation to beat Trump has brought us to this place. Joe Biden. Really? The narrative that he is electable seems to have worked. We'll see.
3
Ross: Believe it or not, but the race is not over. While Sanders may be down at the moment, Biden holds a lead of just 160 or so delegates -- less than 10% of the 1,991 he needs to win. It is equal parts disappointing and disturbing when the media uses the past tense (i.e., Biden "stormed back to take control") for current events. This is why people in the Bernie camp feel the DNC and the media have rigged things against them. To quote Biden himself, let's let the process play out.
3
@Andrew
Bernie is toast!
He lost
Time for all of us to move on and to support Mr. Biden so that we can restore some SANITY to this nation come November
Grasping at straws? "Disturbed" that someone used the past tense to describe something that happened yesterday?
After three years of a divisive and rhetorically excessive Donald Trump presidency, and having endured Bernie's scorching and uncompromising campaign rhetoric, Democratic primary voters seem to have been persuaded to choose light rather than heat, and competence rather than complaining.
Whether the rest of the electorate agrees In the end, assuming that Biden wins the nomination, voters in the general election will remain divided, with never Trumpers and never Bidens locked into their positions and holding their noses about the other guy.
When all is said and done, it may turn out that FDR was correct, and that Americans, faced with a pandemic and a president who seems detached from reality, may fear fear itself, with the winner in this November's general election being the candidate that people fear the least.
2
As much as I enjoy Douthat most of the time, he has a habit of going off course to avoid some basic truths. An act of God did not beat Sanders. Voters who want to beat Trump beat Sanders and they coalesced around the guy who they think has the best chance of doing that.
6
And don’t forget that Sanders supporters failed to show up and vote on Super Tuesday. To me that was the most telling of all, Sanders supporters spent their time on social media complaining how the DNC was working against Sanders but yet they didn’t bother to cast a primary vote.
4
All I heard about was the youth vote for Sanders. The didn't show--they probably, more than anyone else, knew that tuition debt forgiveness was never going to happen.
I have two kids in college, I had more hope they they did, until the showed me the numbers.
Colleges are addicted to the federal loan money like Congress is to tax revenue.
NYU cost me $16,000 for all four years--I got work right out of school for $21,000 a year.
Today NYU is $207,000 for four years.
What do they do with all that money, explain to my kids that they'll never get work for that kind of money?
Don't they have economists working in colleges?
We work hard all our lives and the capitalists goal is to get all your money before your dead and get it to rich people so they never pay taxes.
I've never missed an election or primary in 43 years. But today I wonder--Is it even worth voting? The deck so stacked against us.
11
The flaw in the free tuition idea is that it doesn’t fundamentally address the root problem— why is tuition so high? Why are graduates not finding decent paying jobs after graduation? Why are colleges being held accountable for the money they charge?
1
The coronavirus demonstrates that competence in governance is actually important and that in spite of republican rhetoric for the past 40 years, government does play an important role in our lives.
That is what is propelling Mr. Biden.
9
The usual bad effort by mr. Douthat to thow in religion.
If that's the Cornoavirus election now, then people would have voted, i'm sorry, would have flushed the electoral cabin with Sanders' votes, the one candidate to promise universal health care.
That didn't happen.
What the actual votes say it's Biden is the candidate for black and union blocks, not for the moderate, not for the sububanities. It's always been and always will be a group election and young and left-liberal people are the minorities in election field.
Sorry, the Biden presidential nominee is on his way since SuperTuesday election day.
Trump is jumping around at the news of having Biden in presidential debate.
Prepare for 4 more years already.
1
Since the Presidential election of the 1964 the Republican Party has been the preferred partisan political choice of a majority of white European American voters.
Obama/ Biden won 43% and 41% of the white European American vote in 2008 and 2012. Clinton/ Kaine won 42% of the white European American vote in 2016
With respect to the coronavirus crisis threat Bernie Sanders is apparently far more endangered by age and health aka heart attack than Joe Biden. While Trump can claim to be relatively young and healthy.
1
@Blackmamba Said political party will never get my vote again and I am of the demographic you speak. You dont dare try to take my SS, Medicare and Medicaid. It took receiving benefits to see the light. Never again republicans.
The real story of yesterday’s primary was that Sanders could not win against a male opponent in Michigan, and thus, male chauvinism was the factor that tipped the Michigan primary and ultimately the electoral college against Clinton in 2016. Trump was afforded a surprising victory because just enough men thought twice about voting for a woman and the polls assured them in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, their Trump votes wouldn’t do the Democratic candidate much harm.
1
It's also possible that "Democrats" asked themselves: "Why should I vote for someone who won't declare himself a Democrat?"
The first "rule change" that the DNC should enact is that no one can enter a Democratic contest unless he or she is a "registered Democrat."
3
Yep, it’s the corona virus election now, but it probably won’t be in the summer and fall and there will be a Joe Biden trying to debate Trump, meet a demanding event schedule, and trying to put to sentences together in a coherent manner. Bernie would have put up a better fight.
It's time for Bernie Sanders to stop the caterwauling, finger-pointing and gesticulating. It's time for Bernie Sanders to get a haircut or apply some styling mousse. It's time for Bernie Sanders to offer his usual halfhearted support for the Democratic nominee. It's time for Bernie Sanders to return to the Senate and resume his usual ineffectiveness. It's time for Bernie Sanders to get out of the race.
4
Mr. Douthat's analysis is a bit short on facts. Vice President Biden claimed for months that South Carolina was his "firewall." We all doubted that and pointed to the fact that prior claims of firewalls fell dismally short. While, prior to South Carolina and Super Tuesday, the attention of the public should have been more focused on COVID-19, it was not. The fear of the virus and the dramatic volatility of the stock market has ramped up considerably over the last week. These circumstances have played to Biden's benefit, but they aren't what led to his success in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday.
2
@David Ramsey
What lead to Biden's success is simply the legitimate fear of a Sanders Presidency based on his stated policies. Bernie and his supporters are a minority even in the Democratic Party let alone the country. Mr. Douthat's analysis is often based but consistent as to getting it wrong regarding Bernie and his Revolution.
Russ Douthat, No, Sanders's choices did doom his support. Many people voted for Biden before we had any idea of the extent of the Coronavirus spread. You could even say that Sander's promotion of Medicare for All would have had the opposite effect -- a landslide for Sanders. I think you underestimate the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. In 2016, the moderate wing won but our candidate had been excoriated for several years by Republicans and then there were some unfortunate last-minute events that derailed her election. I made up my mind at the beginning of the campaign because I thought Sanders was as big a danger to our country as Trump. We knew him well from 2016 and he hasn't changed. We also have known Biden for many years. Joe Biden is the kind of politician who will assemble a body of experts to deal with our enormous problems. He won't consider a difference of opinion to be a display of disloyalty. I'm afraid both Trump and Sanders are guilty of thinking any dissenting voice is disloyalty.
4
There's certainly an argument to be made here that the coronavirus was Trump's Katrina, and that the obvious incompetence his administration has shown in responding to it has made people in the Democratic primary flee to the candidate they associate with a competent administration and one they think can dump Trump.
But I find the argument advanced in Thomas Edsall's column today more compelling--Bernie Sanders' voters were never as all in for him and his programs in 2016 as suspected, and that a large number who voted for him in 2016 were sexistly voting anti-Hillary. That's not to say that Bernie does not have a core of true progressives, but that his impressive vote totals of 2016 were inflated by said sexist, anti-elitist voters, and that his core voting bloc was considerably smaller, and not large enough to overcome a moderate candidate once consolidation had occurred. Edsall also pointed out that, in addition to many sitting out or voting third party (the more disappointed progressive ones), a number of Bernie primary voters eventually voted for Trump (likely the more sexist working class ones).
So, it does seem, there are more of these socially conservative, economically moderate to liberal economic voters out there than the pundit class usually experiences (or at least more to that group comes out to vote).
2
There is no way that the coronavirus emergency is a larger reason for the Biden surge than is the urgency to beat Trump. It's obvious that the Democratic voters believe Biden has a better chance of doing that than Bernie does. Biden represents the normal status quo, whereas Bernie represents the rip the country up and start over mentality. People want a return to competence, integrity, dignity, maturity, stability, and overall normalcy in their President. That is the direct opposite of Trump, and Bernie is the wild-haired kook screaming about taking private insurance away from the two thirds of the country who has it. Extremism isn't a good formula for success. Centrist, moderate views better represent the art of the possible, especially in terms of getting legislation through Congress.
Bernie has some good ideas, but most are not likely to be enacted into law. Biden has a much stronger record of actually getting things through Congress, and the voters recognize that.
But first and foremost is the defeat of Trump. That has been shown in poll after poll, and is the number 1 priority for Democrats. And for many Republicans, too.
So the winner will be Joe!, not Bernie. But Bernie's voice in Congress will be an important guide to how the country evolves into the future. Just not as President.
2
I think Ross is stretching to fit the Coronavirus into the Dem primary narrative. I just don't get any sense at all that the Dems swung over to Biden because they think he's the safer choice in light of the Coronavirus. They swung because they think he's the safer choice to beat Trump.
What's far more likely than the Coronavirus narrative is what Ross describes as the pundit's story. Bernie, sensing victory too early, made no effort to move to the middle and instead, like Trump, focused on motivating his base. I think Bernie underestimated two things: (i) how badly the Dems want to beat Trump, and (ii) that Bernie's "woke" supporters may be very vocal but are a clear minority of the Democratic party, and an even smaller minority of the electorate as a whole.
To be sure, fate (or luck) in the form of the timing of the various state primaries and the withdrawal of the other candidates had a lot to do with Biden's ascendancy. But I don't think the Coronavirus had much if anything to do with it.
5
If you aren't worried about what this coronavirus could do to the US population and the severe damage to the US economy, you need to check your pulse. This will take nothing short than a response similar to that of preparing for war. What has been suggested so far is nowhere near sufficient.
My strong suggestion to limit the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent damage to the economy is the following:
The US government shall pay for ALL treatment costs for ANYBODY who believes that they might have the coronavirus. This would include all treatments costs, plus any lost wages. These would be payable at Medicare rates.
If implemented, this program could dramatically reduce the spread of the disease, along with significantly mitigate the economic damage since so many families are much more fragile than anybody believes. It could save Main street from the disease and economic effects, while saving Wall Street in the process.
I'm worried....
4
It would be nice to believe Sanders was denied by god. But since god doesn't exist, we have to place the blame where it really belongs. The biggest factor in Sanders' defeat was the media. Coverage, even on MSNBC, was almost relentlessly negative. His campaign wasn't given fair representation by reporters, who are employed by the 1%, rely on 1% cooperation for stories, and spend most of their time on Twitter, which less than a quarter of Americans actually use.
3
Joe Biden’s campaign was not given up for dead by everyone, Ross.
Millions of us understood that the first three states to vote weren’t representative of the entire country.
Millions of us respect Biden for being a survivor.
Millions of us heard Biden say that he is in this for the long run.
An ‘act of God’ didn’t save Biden; the pundits were just too quick in writing him off.
3
Bernie failed to craft an effective message to get him through the thicket of chaotic events and a coalescing opposition that connected with a media narrative that asked, point blank: "Is there any way to stop Bernie?" It turns out there was.
Joe Biden lacked a compelling or coherent message and he didn't have much money or national organization. But he was at the right place at the right time and had the help of Rep. Jim Clyburn who leveraged his South Carolina victory and urged him to tighten up his act.
To the extent that Bernie failed to close his case for Medicare for All and democratic socialism, he was sloppy and, ultimately irresponsible. To affect a bold vision you must be thorough, convincing - and compassionate toward those who don't yet "get it."
The coronavirus gave Bernie his best case for universal health care -- tests cost $3270 and who wants to imagine a scenario where 87 million people can't get tested or treated? Instead, Bernie hammered Pence as unsuited for the the job of White House facilitator - when the guy's doing sort of OK. And he trotted out the familiar arguments citing Trump's malignant personality - a losing proposition, at best.
I hope that Biden can pull this off. He has vulnerabilities. He'd do well to name a VP and, frankly, cabinet - soon - to create a united front - and vision - for specific change. Rather than wait till late August. That would show imagination at a time when it's desperately needed.
3
While Trump's handling of the coronavirus might have had some impact on those who were willing to give him a pass on the economy, it doesn't hurt at all that Biden came alive during his late debate and exuded confidence regarding winning South Carolina, leading to some last minute high profile endorsements by those who were waiting for the right opportunity to throw their weight in his direction.
Combine this with a huge delegate lead heading into yesterday's primaries (a misleading figure because 90 delegates in states where Sanders has a considerable lead have not yet been assigned), nevermind that Biden's greatest leads are in Republican strongholds where Trump still leads in the polls, many people who may have otherwise voted for Sanders started to worry that he might have have enough substance to defeat Trump.
Where I think the Trump's mishandling of the coronavirus situation is likely to have the greatest impact, though, is not with the primaries, but in the November election.
1
You've overlooked a simpler explanation. If Warren had endorsed Sanders, ideally at least before South Carolina, his delegate count would look much different, especially if she did it with unbridled enthusiasm. Imagine a joint appearance with Sanders, Warren and AOC. Warren again, just as she did in 2016, abandoned her progressive principles in a calculated effort to maintain credibility within the party establishment. She defeated Sanders and destroyed any hope of progressive party reform.
3
The Democratic power brokers and the press either attacked, belittled, or ignored Sanders. That's a fact. Not surprisingly, voters were influenced. Sander's loss is not about the virus or a cranky personality. It's about those in power fighting to remain in power. They were afraid that Sanders would win, not that he would lose. Now it's all on them.
2
The power brokers threw their undivided support to Biden. Warren did not support Bernie Sanders. Why are the columnists for the NYT ignoring this? The voters followed suit. Biden had a lot of help from his friends without this he would be toast.
Basically a lot more Democrats have voted for Biden than for Sanders, and a lot of those Democrats who cast ballots for Biden have been African Americans and women. The early primaries are so skewed that they masked Sanders weaknesses. It isn't super complicated.
5
Most older democrats are convinced independents will not vote for a socialist.
Most young dems are convinced Biden represents a repeat of the Jeb-Hillary election. That Reps upset with a "change" candidate (like Obama :) only Change candidates win.
Both are right, need a young Change candidate that isn't a socialist.
1
In the far future, history books may be called metaphorically only as books. In an open air in public places, or at home, or in any other private indoor place, or even at the peak of a mountain, one would be able to see the 3D panorama documentations of today’s events, projected by satellites. From that point of view in that far future, 2019 will be marked for the coronavirus as worldly occurred, and for the democrats’ nomination process as a turmoil in the American politics. In the midst of currents running wild, it is hard to set oneself back to get the view over. The other thing I want to say is about establishment. To me, this is the year when I grasped more than ever what the establishment is and means. In 2016, Mr. Trump might have flipped the concept and gained. Sanders is too theoretical and intellectual to go along the same line. Douthat has recently abbreviated, in his twitter, the difference between two men and that in two parties’ receptions with those regards.
It’s ironic that just when we realize we’re in the grip of a worldwide demonstration of the need for it, the current champion of universal health care is losing out.
4
If the "conservatives" on this page are so very expert on "the left" and Democratic party politics, and so ready to unsolicited offer advice, week after week, you have to ask: didn't they make enough mess of their own party?
Or is it that, not quite content with having promoted the party of climate change denial, third-world inequality guns and racial hatred their entire adult lives, they're now determined to destroy everyone and everything which escaped them the first time?
1
While the Coronavirus may be impacting the primaries now, it serves only as a reminder of the dangers we all face. I believe that their is a much more basic reason voters have leaned into Biden so hard. It could be that voters simply began to realize that to win in November and the next four years, coalitions will have to be built. Sanders demonstrated a very limited ability to do so. The Coronavirus has been around for weeks. Sanders had three years prior to that to build his base of support.
4
Quite an interesting thesis. You might well be right in your analysis. It does raise a question, though: What do voters find reassuring about Joe? What about him makes voters think he's capable of handling the coronavirus--or any other crisis that might break out? do they think that, while he idled his engine eight years as vice president, President Obama's extraordinary qualities somehow rubbed off on him? Do they see him as a leader in a way that they never have before?
2
Experience. Eight years as vp with years before that in the Senate, building coalitions. I'm pro-Bernie but even I will admit that coalition-building would not be among his strengths.
3
Re: history likes to keep things simple
It is true that most college freshman in intro history courses like to keep things simple, but actual historians (of which I am one) know that history is rarely simple. lol
7
Biden was always by far the biggest threat to Bernie.
Odds are Bernie did not plan for an early consolidation around Biden because if that happened he was guaranteed to lose no matter what he did. Given that, he might as well have focused on scenarios where he might win.
3
Some commentators speculated that the corona virus might help Bernie's candidacy. That didn't happen.
I doubt that history will say that the virus is driving these primaries. It's more likely that people began to realize the Sanders couldn't beat Trump.
7
It's the Trumpvirus election now, and it always has been.
The majority of Americans have been fighting Trumpvirus since mid-2016 when it officially consumed the Republican Party and replicated itself all across the country, attached itself to Republican red state hosts, Kremlin co-campaign managers, and the easily duped masses who somehow thought Trump's unique brand of spite, ignorance, ill will toward others and used car salesmanship skills would solve real problems.
Since then, the Trumpvirus has consumed the idea of truth, facts and objective reality, the Justice Department, the separation of powers principle, the United States Constitution and reduced 40% of the population into members of an authoritarian cult that fully subscribes to tyranny of the minority.
Fortunately, the nation's November 2018 autoimmune response help quarantine the Trumpvirus, but the its remains dangerous and deadly.
The resurrection of dormant Joe Biden as America's antibody response to the Trumpvirus appears to be working.
The American patient is now stabilized and will grow stronger the next eight months even as the GOP-Trumpvirus furiously unleashes a fury of viral cells in a final attempt to consume the country and reduce it to a pile of corrupt oligarchic ashes.
Even after the patient recovers on November 3 2020 from this deadly virus, it will continue to release deadly cells until January 20 2021 and beyond, but the Democratic vaccine will ultimately prevail over this deadly virus.
137
@Socrates
History won't stop on January 20, 2021, even if Trump loses and leaves peacefully. If Biden wins, I fear that his version of American history will simply omit the years 2016-20. I don't think he's interested in justice at all.
5
@Socrates
This was good!
6
@Socrates Such a clever way of expressing this truth! Thank you.
3
I bristle at your final sentence. Describing the coronavirus (or a hurricane, tornado,flood,etc.) as an "act of God" is antithetical to the true nature of God.
4
@Tara Meyer Dull
Don't bristle.
Register and VOTE !
3
No. The Biden surge preceded coronavirus by two weeks. (Coronavirus was there but had not yet become the number one story until the market wretched.) What history will likely show is that it took the coronavirus to show that Donald Trump was completely unprepared and incapable of dealing with a crisis not of his own making.
It will show that not only was he incapable of providing any real leadership, it will expose his hollowing out of the permanent administrative state that could have handled it.
It will show that it took the coronavirus to finally defeat Trump.
13
Nice piece, Ross. I'm not sure your conclusion quite tracks (that the Sanders campaign blunders are not that important a factor), but it's an interesting argument.
Your conception of history is a common one in the general public, I think--that "history likes to keep things simple." Whether you're talking about the past or the way that humans write about the past (i.e., history), neither is simple. The writing and revision of history never ends precisely because the past is so complicated, and historians continuously argue over which combination of factors best explains *why* events transpired as they did. If you're reading a monocausal account, it's probably not very good history.
5
I believe that in the wake of the so-called coronavirus pandemic, President Trump should call a national emergency and postpone the election until the pandemic is under control, if not, ended all together. Now is not the time to have competing political theories bantered about; we need the stability that is assured by the Trump Administration. Thank you.
2
re: Southern Boy. If you believe Trump and Fox, the epidemic IS under control. Everything is perfect and we should just go ahead as if the virus is a hoax. Don’t think you can have it cut both ways whenever convenient for you.
@Southern boy, what I find appalling in your advocacy for the overthrow of our constitutional democracy in favor of authoritarian rule by Trump is one, that your seriously arguing for an act of sedition by the federal administration and two your factious in your support of one of the most incompetent presidents in modern history. I’m sure that not more than a few of Trumps extremist supporters see this as a crisis of opportunity that can be translated into years of Trumpista government. Putin’s in the process of doing the equivalent in Russia right now. He would be proud and pleased by this suggestion. Think his trolling has had good effect now wouldn’t he.
1
Why did Elizabeth Warren not promptly endorse Sanders, and give him support when he most needed it? Instead, Warren watched Sanders being pushed under the bus, and although she was right next to him, she did nothing to try and pull him back.
Warren almost mirrors Sanders in terms of her progressive beliefs and aspirations. If she is as committed to those ideals as she says she is, then there should have been no hesitation on her part. She could have mitigated the Klobuchar and Buttigieg endorsements of Biden, and maybe helped swing things his way, at least in the news cycle, and perhaps in some primaries.
I supported Warren, financially and not just with words, but I think she should answer this question now. If she thinks Biden was the better pragmatic option of the two, I will listen to that, but she should not try to have it both ways. Her 'thundering silence' (as another commentator put it) should end.
5
You can't pin Bernie's losses on Warren's non-endorsement. Bernie has always been a protest candidate. And clearly, he wasn't able to translate the youth enthusiasm into youth votes.
5
@SParker I am not saying Warren's non-endorsement is the only factor, but I am saying that these races are a matter of momentum, and she denied him that boost when he most needed it. So it was a factor, how big neither of us can ever know, and there were other factors.
What really bugs me though is that Warren vigorously espouses progressive principles and programs but then she failed to endorse the one progressive candidate left in the race. I want her to explain that. And as I said before, I am willing to listen, but silence is not going to work for me.
1
Probably, policies aside, she thinks he would make a horrible president (as do I). There’s a reason she ran against him.
Also, she is a true Democrat, which Bernie is not. She is firmly in the tent and will do what she decides is best for the party.
1
There is another factor that everyone seems to be missing in t heir analyses today: there is only one party holding a primary this year, and so the moderates of both parties can consolidate their votes.
In 2016, moderate voters in open primaries were spread across two parties, voting for Clinton in the Democratic primary and Kasich, Rubio, or Cruz all the way through and past Super Tuesday in the GOP one. This year, there is effectively - and sometimes actually - no GOP primary, which leaves everyone in the middle lane (cf suburbanites, Never Trumpers, etc) free to vote in the Democratic primary. And following his decisive victory in SC, all of these centrist and independent voters have lined up behind Biden.
4
For me personally, I see the Presidency itself as irrelevant. ( in the sense that the only crucial outcome is to remove the current occupant)
What is really going to matter is expanding the Democratic and Progressive base in the house, AND to wrestle back control of the Senate from republicans. I think it can be done this election cycle.
Then, the only question will be whether the nuclear option will be implemented (50+1 for a majority), or to work for 60 Democratic votes 2 years later.
It is the same question that has been obstructed since republicans took over the Senate in 2010, and have since obstructed everything.
Again, it is up to you, the voter to decide what you want.
13
Yes, our terrible, almost worst in the world health system feels so "safe" to people that during a frightening pandemic they want to vote for the person who promises not to fix it.
There are many factors affecting why Joe Biden is getting more votes right now, but this airy dorm room reasoning by Ross Douthat doesn't address them.
People are voting for Biden primarily because they've bought the "electability" argument about needing to go with a dull, unexciting centrist, not because they see anything in him but that "all those other people" are more likely to vote for him.
The fact that this was exactly the strategy that failed in 2016 and led to Donald Trump being elected President doesn't seem to occur to anyone, or to too few anyway.
In any case, we seem to be making our choice. I hope and pray that it isn't exactly the same mistake that the party made last time, but everything I see tells me that it is.
6
@Jeo
The electability argument is dependent upon centrist Republicans crossing over to Biden, but electability may be a concoction of the mainstream media, since fully 92% of Republicans are firmly behind Trump according to the latest Gallup polls.
Most of the missing 8% will simply sit out the election rather than vote Democratic.
Since Republicans comprise only 28% of the electorate, those are not very big numbers.
Trump got 62 million votes in 2016 and seems to have retained just about every single one of them. The greater electability seems to be with Trump.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
@Fourteen14
What I'm saying is that the mainstream media maybe walking us into an historic loss as they did with Hillary in 2016.
Note that the Perception Gap study - google it - found that highly educated Democrats who read the mainstream media have a gap with reality of 30%.
Our is the best health system in the world. FYI. Everyone else copies us. You are probably complaining about medical insurance, which you may not have for some reason although it is available to everyone through Obamacare.
Most of the people I talk to here in Florida are committed to backing whatever candidate has the best chance of beating Trump. At least here, that is the deciding factor.
8
Here in Colorado, I voted for Bernie Sanders. The list of reasons was long; most important, my political and life values can often be seen and heard in Bernie's words and dreams.
If Joe Biden becomes the nominee, I will vote for him for President of the United States of America.
There are differences between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Just not enough of them for me to stay home and pout, and making sure that Donald Trump is elected a 2nd time to the Presidency.
15
A simpler explanation. Perhaps the pundits have it wrong and Americans do want a moderate president. Perhaps Americans have seen what it’s like to have a President who is on the fringes of political ideology. Perhaps they’ve seen enough ranting, irrationality, and reactive emotion-based policy and now prefer a measured, practical, and thoughtful leader who lives more in the middle of the political spectrum…like most of us.
17
Ross - What you're really saying, Ross, is that Democratic voters think Biden has better leadership qualities and experience than Bernie.
8
@JDW113
And is the most Republican Lite candidate. Which is what he really wants.
This was not a virus, this was more fundamental. SHOULD vs. CAN. Sanders' SHOULDS are impossible because there are so many of them and they are demanded so insistently. Voters who lead real lives are voting for realistic CAN instead. In the end, the debates, the personalities, the DNC and so on are less important.
8
The "given up for dead" narrative, advanced by journalists and repeated here by Douthat, was based on the propensity for horse-race reporting generally and on disproportionate focus on the tiny, white, and rural states of Iowa and New Hampshire. In these states candidates with less nationwide recognition get outsize attention, from an electorate who revel in their outsize access and influence and ability to propel new faces into the spotlight. The prevalence of superficial moment-to-moment tactical reporting and the flaws in our electoral system stand sharply revealed.
5
A good short analysis, and helpful for those Bernie supporters who may feel blindsided. I am not one of them. Biden is about as "Washington insider" as you can get, and he is a master of the game, so I am far from shocked that once the pretenders left the stage, Biden would do well. One aspect of this I was not really prepared for was Biden carrying so much of the black vote. Not being black myself, and a so-called "white east coast elite" (or something), I underestimated the affection and respect toward Biden held by many black Americans, despite Biden's openly anti-black votes and stances over the years. From an objective-policy point of view, I think it's too bad: Sanders' policies would help black Americans more than Biden's. But it seems Biden's close work with President Obama for 8 years won him a lot of support with black Americans. I just find it hard to believe Sanders' campaign didn't figure this out ahead of time, or if they had, they weren't preparing for it. A little telling if you ask me.
3
@Morgenröte
“Anti-black votes” by Biden?
The Crime Bill was supported by 100% of the Congressional Black Caucus. Liberal white people may blanche (pun intended) at measures that address crime, but black people by and large are opposed to crime. And want to address it.
1
I always wanted to live in a country with a leader who would be an environmental champion. When the election was stolen from Al Gore, I knew I never would. Since then, I have longed to live in a country where people's lives and the health of the planet matter more than corporate dominance, a kinder country that I could be proud of. Now, I know I never will.
6
The pendulum swings in politics. Trump was too radical and unpredictable for many of us who now have had enough. We were also undecided in who to choose until many democrats left the field. At that point it was Bernie or Biden and Bernie is also unpredictable. The coronavirus was a minor factor but yes we couldn’t see Bernie keeping our nation calm in a crisis nor did he have a good plan as to what he could have done better with the pandemic, The younger voting members of my family are not happy with either candidate.
5
All this talk about Biden's "resurgence" against Sanders is an illusion created by the way primaries are scheduled. The earliest primaries were in small, atypical states with low minority populations. Only when they reached South Carolina could people see how the candidates fared with African-Americans
Biden was probably in the lead all the time. It's just that nobody noticed.
19
@Charlesbalpha
Yes, and the illusion was furthered by obsessive media focus on “momentum” and “horse races”.
1
The caucus format plays well for Bernie supporters, and the demographics of Iowa and New Hampshire are less representative of other parts of the nation. Consolidate the moderates by having Pete and Amy drop out, and the coronavirus is a much smaller part of Biden's surge. Where the coronavirus might help is by highlighting the vacuum of leadership at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. While anger is effective at getting some people to vote, fear is a much larger motivator.
13
"There are no atheists in foxholes" analogy applies here. When the going gets really rough, people turn to what is most powerful in their mind. That is usually an esteemed male figure - the residue of their indoctrination into patriarchal religion. After they are mortally wounded though, they usually cry out for the comfort and aid of a female. If the American people knew that they were mortally "hit" and realized who they were "hit" by, Hillary Clinton would be President or Elizabeth Warren would be the Democratic nominee for President.
4
Very interesting thought. I do agree that there was a mentality shift of the American people over the past to weeks to run to safety with multiple factors. Coronavirus was a current factor, but with the debacle of the impeachment, an always shifting political landscape in our country and others has had a dramatic impact on the American mindset. As the coronavirus story continues to unfold, I think that there is an underestimated impact it is having in our country specifically. Not only has it become yet another politically divisive issue, but it also reminds us that much of the world exists outside of our country and we have to think of ourselves in a much more grander construct.
4
Sanders can write his most impressive political chapter. Endorse Biden, and work relentlessly and passionately together to defeat Trump. Have serious input into the issues that young people most care about. And be a hero.
933
@DJH Excellent point! Sanders CAN make a real difference by getting out and there, campaigning Biden about the issues he feels passionately about! He and Biden would have to talk first though.
27
@DJH
I don't understand why anyone thinks that Sanders should drop out. That would alienate scores of Sanders followers even more against the Democratic Party. Biden supporters are looking for Kumbaya while Sanders supporters are looking for real social change and progress. Let the contest play out for goodness sake. There are real differences in these candidates and the people all through the USA should have the choice. If Biden wins fair and square (unlike with Hillary) that will strengthen him going into the general. If he wins by default, then he is weakened. The important thing is that the Democrats coalesce around whomever the people choose at the convention.
29
@Bear Lass - I’m just looking at all the numbers - the votes already cast in about half the states - the delegates pledged - and the current national polls that has Biden way ahead. Additionally Bernie wanted the one-on-one contest in Michigan and he was crushed there. Florida is coming soon which will be a total Biden blowout win. I want Biden and Bernie to join forces now to make Trump a one term president. Defeating an incumbent President in this country is hard and I want that to be the focus now. That’s just my opinion.
44
Ross Douthat, the only thing you left out was the personalities of the two contenders.
One is optimistic to the hilt, the other well, quite cranky. One pleads hope and unity, the other anger, almost punishing, transformation.
So acts of God vie with acts of men, competing for a panicked public's attention while the opponent spins, hedges, and obfuscates the status of medical crisis.
In the end, each voter had to assess which candidate offered more comfort, experience, and willingness to empower experts.
Can Joe Biden integrate the Sanders coalition in the final battle against Trump? He hinted at it last night, with a cry for all Democrats--left and right--to coalesce for the sake of our political and physical lives
It's Biden's most immediate (and most important) challgenge--retaining the energy and passion of Sanders true believers.
358
@ChristineMcM
I think you're just repeating punditry.
Biden is optimistic, but Bernie isn't "cranky", he's just not concerned with making you feel good about something that's objectively bad. Bernie isn't about anger and rage and punishment, he's about justice. The people who were to be punished were the people who broke the law but were protected by their money and friends. Bernie doesn't put unity above justice, unlike Joe Biden, who is fine with letting criminals get away with crimes if prosecuting those crimes would be "divisive".
In the end, each voter chose which pundits they like most and did what they asked. This "willingness to empower experts" is actually a "willingness to outsource thinking" when it comes to elections, for which there is no good science. Voters reasoned, "The experts say Biden is the safe choice and will probably win anyway, so I'll just vote for him." My own mother nearly voted against her conscience because she thought it would be better for party unity. It didn't take me long to get her to realize she was being foolish, but others aren't so smart.
35
@Andrew Roberts - You must admit, Bernie does project a kind of anger and stridency in his communication approach. It is a turn off at this time of Trump autocracy and almost serves as a complement to him. That "punishing" quality pervades his aura and reflects in his cult-like young fans - again a phenomenon similar to Trump's cult.
Biden offers a simpler, clearer compassionate communication which is sorely needed at this time.
33
@ChristineMcM
Biden will get the nomination. But all the more, it's time to stop smearing Bernie (and progressives). It's time to take a serious look at Joe and his campaign. Or it's 2016 all over again.
Have you seen Joe on the trail? And not just his mistakable cognitive decline. His most recent debate performance was nothing but an angry tirade intended to project energy and dynamism. Even the pundits in Biden's camp didn't claim a hint of optimism, but rather a good nap.
Joe's also challenged countless citizens to a "let's take it out back" moment. Or worse, a push-up competition when they so much as question his record. Positive? Optimistic? On what planet?
With each day it's clear the happy-go-lucky routine is simply a veneer. And that says nothing for Joe's ability to tackle what will be the toughest job going.
The stakes are inordinately high. And moderate Dems appear to be counting on a trompe d'oile campaign. Trump has that corner staked. And the Burisma onslaught is about to begin.
So just a word of caution ... hubris will not beat Trump.
29
This sounds good, but I don’t really see the evidence. I think Sanders’ problem is that he never transitioned from a protest candidate to a win-the-election candidate. He scared people too much, forcing the unusual spectacle of 4 out of 5 major candidates withdrawing within the space of a week. That’s his problem, not the virus.
443
@Michael Livingston’s
I also do not see the evidence that COVID-19 had anything to do with Sanders' defeat. I think the problem was that he was too scary, but it wasn't that he was scary to voters. He was scary to the people voters listen to, so they painted a picture of a demon, and that picture is what scared voters.
13
@Andrew Roberts Agreed, no evidence cited. Do the exit polls in any primary indicate COVID-19 drove voters to Biden? Focus groups? Anything? This sounds like arm-chair theorizing without much data. And a theory more applicable to a Trump loss in November's election, which seems more likely to be affected by this crisis.
8
@Andrew Roberts
Sanders was scary because Warren pushed him way farther out left than he wanted to go. He wisely didn't go so far out left in 2016.
For those that support Sanders and may be frustrated or upset, I get it. My original choice of candidate left the race 2 months ago. My second choice did a few weeks later.
But please remember this November:
You're not just voting for President.
-You're voting for who replaces Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
-You're voting for the next Secretary of Education.
-You're voting for Federal Judges.
-You're voting for saving national parks.
-You're voting for letting kids out of cages.
-You're voting for clean air and clean water.
-You're voting for scientists to be allowed to speak about climate change.
-You're voting for what the President says on Twitter.
-You're voting for housing rights.
-You're voting for LGBTQ+ people to be treated with dignity.
-You're voting for people of all faiths and belief systems.
-You're voting for Dreamers.
-You're voting so that someone else can have health insurance.
-You're voting to have a President who doesn't embarrass this country every time she or he attends an international meeting.
-And you're voting against allowing the USA to become yet another authoritarian regime.
No one is perfect. No matter who the nominee ends up being, he/she will not be perfect. They won't pass your purity test. And yet EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM will be better than four more years of Trump.
1457
@history buff
Yeah, all that is true. For the record, Sanders didn't pass my purity test, but he was still my #1 choice by far. We will get some good things with Biden. But we won't get justice for what happened in the Trump administration. The investigations into the corruption, self-dealing, law-breaking, etc. should go on for a decade or more, but Biden won't have it. I don't see any scenario where Joe Biden puts the pursuit of justice above social tranquility. He and his supporters will say that it would do more damage to investigate Trump than it would to simply move on, and so they'll let him get away with it. That's not acceptable.
31
@history buff This is a perfect description of so many issues we need to consider when going to the polls in November. The most important one being that "EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM WILL BE BETTER THAN FOUR MORE YEARS OF TRUMP."
79
@history buff To add: remember 2000. Remember that hundreds of thousands of people died in Iraq because GWB scraped in "ahead" of Gore. And remember that some progressives couldn't bring themselves to vote for Gore on principle.
We live in the real world; we choose between realistic outcomes; we own the consequences of our choices, whether we willed them or not.
73
The narrative that historians will use to join the two threads that Ross lays out is about illness but not the Coronavirus. It’s that America is sick of Trump. Four years ago we bought a lemon. Now we get to trade it in. Bernie is just too exotic and unproven. Biden may be old and a bit worn but Americans believe he’ll hold up for four more years.
14
@Richard Frank
Maybe replace the transmission, give it a good tune-up, add some extras, fix up the dents, all good to go!
I think that Bernie has brought some unwavering ideas that define goals that we need to achieve. Just one major idea for example is Health Care for all. Bernie’s absolutely right about the need for it and the Coronavirus is a an example of why everyone needs healthcare.
Trump’s major blunders in his dealing with the Coronavirus should force his removal from office. From shutting down the US pandemic team to refusing to even today take it seriously show an unfitness for the office. Trump is out shaking hands and holding rallies and trying to bail out oil companies when the Coronavirus needs the everyone in the country’s attention and cooperation.
14
Yeah, those poor oil companies! They probably have no money set aside after years of government subsidies to prop them up, being the largest corporations in the world when discussing profits, and I’m sure they have suffered miserably under the new tax laws enacted in 2018!
We need to bail them out of the free market forces being imposed on them by a fight between Putin and Saudi Arabia! They sure have had a difficult time under a Trump Administration......;)
Let's suppose that Douthat is correct about the coronavirus pandemic being the reason for Biden's surge. Given Douthat's long history of being a GOP apologist, he might be hiding the real reason.
Which is: maybe the Hillary-hating Trump-voting democratic voters in the Midwest have seen through the Trump administration's utterly cynical response of first gaslighting the public and then offering them tax cuts. Maybe they laying the blame at Trump's feet, and are running back towards Biden. Maybe these voters are even more perspicacious than that. Maybe they suspect that the tax cut plan is yet another GOP fig leaf to push more payouts to the corporations and further hurt social security and medicare.
16
"I know Joe. We know Joe. But most importantly, Joe knows us," Clyburn said.
Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina gave a profound endorsement of Joe Biden that sounded like the crack of lightning ushering in the coming storm. I have never seen a political endorsement that had as much dramatic impact and resonance as James Clyburn's. That endorsement flashed through the mist of confusion and doubt as if it were a message from God. The wheel of history turned on its axis at that moment.
18
@Dan
That's some good copy: "I know Ford. We know Ford. But most importantly, Ford knows us,"
@Dan "...But most importantly, Joe knows us," Clyburn said..."
Sanders started his political life being arrested in a civil rights demonstration. He chaired Jesse Jackson's presidential primary campaign in Vermont and delivered a victory. I'll bet that not 2% of Black voters know that.
What they know is that Sanders talks with a real white Brooklyn accent and has real white-guy mannerisms and isn't given to pandering. And so Black voters chose Hillary "superpredator speech" Clinton in '16 and they chose Biden now, because they both spent decades pandering. It's that simple. The anti-consumer bankruptcy bill, the Iraq War, and the treatment of Anita Hill don't even come into the picture.
1
Fantastical hyperbole.
Clyburn’s influence is contained to hard core Democrats, especially among African-Americans. Leading up to and in the general election, Biden will be tested - and found coming up short. I doubt we’re going to see turn out for Biden like there was for Obama in 2008. And if that’s the case, Trump is the odds on favorite to win.
On the contrary, why when facing a pandemic would Americans vote for the man who can barely finish a thought? Biden is befuddled half the time. Meanwhile Trump is acting at lightening speed, taking steps to speed up testing, financially help workers and shore up the economy.
If the virus is foremost on their minds, it's unlikely Americans would choose someone who cannot even catch a ball never mind juggle several at once.
5
The argument that Trump is sharp as a knife versus Biden is laughable at best. His “lightening speed” with testing is still being worked on months after the virus made its first appearance.
I go return to work today at a hospital. We’ll see how many tests we have this morning compared to a few days ago. I’m not holding my breath.
2
@AACNY "lightning speed"? from November until just recently, Trump failed-- because of his narcissism, his ignorance, his unwillingness to listen to people who know something-- because for Trump it's only about the numbers reported, the stock market, and his re-election; it's not about the public health, the health of the American people, the health of the most vulnerable people. If anything is getting done now it is largely despite Trump-- there are some public health experts still around. AACNY please stop gaslighting us.
2
You could just as easily be describing Trump there. He too has trouble finishing a sentence coherently and half the time sounds like a raving lunatic when he stops looking at the teleprompter. It is true as well that Biden is not what he once was. It is depressing that it looks like our choice for President is going to be between two really old men with glaring mental deficiencies. It gives me a little solace though that Biden will at least surround himself with experts and knowledgeable advisors and he’ll actually listen to them unlike Trump who surrounds himself with unqualified sycophants and then doesn’t listen to them anyway. As far as “lightning” response to the virus, ha! What world are you living in? The only lightning response has been the speed of the lies, deflection, and signature ineptitude that we usually get from the Trump administration. Testing rates are way behind the curve compared to other countries and we have some vague plans for more tax cuts and corporate bailouts that won’t do anything to actually stem the virus. Hardly reassuring.
1
Well two centrist candidates dropping out before Super Tuesday and one allegedly progressive candidate staying in and then not endorsing Sanders after dropping out might have something to do with it too. Given two weeks between South Carolina and Super Tuesday instead of a few days momentum could have changed. But for reasons outside of Sanders control, centrists and Elizabeth Warren decided on Joe Biden. Perhaps there was a general we're-all-going-to-die unease that wanted somebody who looked steady? Maybe, but there is a reason that real history starts 50 years after events.
5
@David Miley Maybe Elizabeth Warren didn't appreciate Bernie telling her a woman can't get elected and then denying he told her that-- thus making her feel he was implying that she was lying. Bernie has some rough edges and some arrogance that has gotten in his own way. He is not a socialist but he insists on calling himself that-- playing into Trump's hands; Denmark is a country with a strong safety net but it is not a socialist country either. Bernie is stuck in his own 1960s self-image (witness his unwillingness to say more about how tyrannical Castro actually was) and it has brought him down.
16
The momentum for Biden was there, corona virus or not. We Democrats began to feel we were running out of time for dithering and we had to settle on a candidate so we could focus on the real enemy, Trump. And we could not afford to take chances that might not appeal to the broadest range of voters. So.....we will now rally behind Biden, as he is the only thing between us and another four years of Trump.
14
I voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary, and a week before this year’s Super Tuesday I was prepared to vote for Warren or Sanders. In terms of broad ideals, I aligned best with the two of them. I’m nearing retirement, and my biggest concern was how their policies might affect my investments that I’ll depend on after I stop working. But, I felt that after a likely initial shock to the markets (assuming one of them would win the presidency; obviously not a given even at that time), things would return to a state of stability that would be better for all of us. And then, COVID-19 really started seriously affecting the world economy, and I think we’re just at the beginning of what could be a long, dramatic fight with this disease worldwide. On the day of my state’s primary, I found myself unwilling to cast a vote for a person that would likely only add to the financial crisis, and so I cast my vote for Biden. So yes, COVID-19 directly affected my vote. In the general election I’ll vote for anyone over Trump, but right now I’m looking for stability, and I feel Biden is the most sensible choice.
14
Bernie and Bernie Bros were much more against the
establishment' and the 'pundits' than theye were aginst all that is being done to the country by the current occupant of the WH. They were all about being 'victimized' by the 'establishment' and 'rigged' system which left them no time to figure out a strategy (if it could be done at all) to convince those Dems, independents and moderate anti-Trump Repubs that they won't fundamentally alter the current democratic and capitalist system. In addition, may be if the moderate wing of the Democratic party candidates were splitting the moderate votes so much that Biden's strength was difficult to see on the surface, and that may be why Bernie looked stronger, with only one other candidate, Warren, skimming off some of his support. May be that Sanders appeared to be on his way to the nomination was a mirage!
6
Largely baloney. The whole Biden was doomed story line was either a massive miscalculation by the pundit class (another) or more likely an investment in the horse race narrative to keep the public reading. Once those initial mickey mouse caucuses were out of the way Biden's basic strengths were always going to kick in. This was going to squeeze the centrist candidates and they to their credit dropped out. The arithmetic always showed a comfortable collective majority for the centrist candidates. Sanders was never going to overcome this.
As for the coronavirus it probably helped Biden at the margins because he's basically seen as a steady pair of hands who knows how to operate the machinery of government. That's about the extent of it.
10
@John A case could now be made that Iowa, New Hampshire and even Nevada are not fit to be the first three places that influence the nominating process. Certain Iowa and N.H. belong much later in the process even if N.H. insists it will be first. Caucuses too are less than fair, less than democratic. Iowa please stop.
3
@John Let's not overstate the case. When Warren surged last October, she and Sanders commanded support of 41% of those in the RCP average, while Biden and the centrists also had 41%. That was the point (when he was trailing both Warren and Biden by 12%) at which Sanders dropping out might have made a difference. Having noted that, Biden led Sanders in literally hundreds of polls, nearly every single one, often substantially, from January 2019 until February 2020. Whether that underlying support for Biden is sensible on the part of Democratic voters is a question still to be answered between now and November 3rd, but John's point on the staying power of Biden is well taken. What more proof could one need than hundreds of polls in a row, with only a couple of outliers, showing Biden ahead of Bernie and the rest of the field. Of course, the momentum could shift if Biden blows it in Sunday's debate. There may, however, come a point rather soon when Bernie sees the writing on the wall. It's clear that Rep. Clyburn contributed a lot to Biden's success in the last ten days. If what I read he said is accurate about no need for the next debate now, I am disappointed. He was inspiring for those few moments he spoke on Biden's behalf. This new suggestion on his part sounds like the machinations of a typical politician, not the words of an inspiring leader. It's for Sanders to decide whether he las lost, not Rep. Clyburn.
Ross,
Your article was good except for the last two sentences. An act of god? Give me a break, that statement doesn't pass the straight face test!
Bernie lost because, despite a dynamic 2016 race, he chose to remain outside the democratic party, because he has always chosen to remain outside any organization where he does not ultimately control the narrative. Bernie does not appear to have the patience for party collaboration, he would rather appeal to the masses.
In addition, despite his success as a politician, his win strategy this time was deeply flawed as it was based on turning out youth voters, who almost always never make voting a priority, despite attraction to his rallies.
Simply, he will lose, because the party members who ran, and those citizens who voted, chose to gather around someone who was closer to their beliefs and could beat Trump.
An act of a god - save your spirituality for a church!
15
@Mark Furnari perhaps some people read into the text something that’s not necessarily there. To wit: an act of God, sometimes referred to as force majeure, is a legal term used in contracts for events such as floods, hurricanes, etc., and in no way should be construed as church talk or spiritual persuasion.
And even if Douthat did or does use it as you read it, isn’t he entitled to his opinion, in an opinion piece? Isn’t he even entitled to his spirituality, however it differs from yours? Don’t we need this type of tolerance and diversity, as a nation? Aren’t the church folks and the rest of us going to have to work together to resolve the big struggles?
It appears that Mr. Douthat is using the analysis of Biden as the Democratic electorate's perceived champion against the coronavirus threat as a metaphor for that same electorate's perception of Biden as the best candidate against the manifold dangers of Trump. if so, he's correct.
5
strenuously disagree with this.
The party coalescing around Biden would have happened without the Coronavirus. Trump is to the body politic was Coronavirus is to public health. People realized Bernie wasn't the antidote and went to the one person in the field who, despite his faults, can rid the country of this particular virus. Nada to do with Coronavirus, although I will say watching Trump flounder as he dealt with his first real crisis didn't hurt
21
I think this is an interesting assessment, but I'm not entirely convinced. Are there really people who were on the between Revolution Bernie and Even-Keel Biden and were tilted over to Biden because of the coronavirus outbreak? I think the bigger reason for the shift is because one of the grownups in the room - Clyburn - anointed Biden, and those of us who were trying to pick a moderate were relieved to follow his lead.
9
Nah. The media’s over-coverage of coronavirus has not helped Biden. There wasn’t even a confirmed case in MI until the day before the vote. Two things account for the situation in the Democratic Party primaries. First, young people don’t vote in the numbers that Bernie relies on. I don’t know why they don’t, but the young segment vote peaked over 30 years ago and hasn’t recovered yet. Second, as former Republican strategist Rick Wilson puts it, Democrats would crawl through broken glass to get Trimp out of office. And Biden is at the heart of the Democratic Party.
6
Eh... no. I agree that is how history will remember things, but I think the pundits have it right this time. Biden slightly under-performed his polls in Michigan, and most of those polls would have been taken before the virus concerns exploded into mainstream view, so you would have expected him to do better if it was about the virus. Not to mention Super Tuesday, which was certainly before the mainstream "panic".
9
Bloomberg should have sold himself as the public health candidate. That has been his focus all along. Better economics too, between Biden and Sanders.
2
"...and no clever socialist argument that Medicare for All would make it easier to take care of coronavirus patients was going to overcome the former vice president’s safe-choice status."
It's not a "clever socialist" argument, and it will be proven true. Thirty million uninsured Americans, many scraping by, will lay low instead of getting tested immediately when symptoms emerge. "Maybe it's just the flu"...is the financial hope that will render containment impossible here.
14
@John Snow
Exactly right, with the advent of new viruses and super-bugs combined with the decline of American immunity from our processed food lifestyle, Medicare-for-all is a national security issue — it has nothing to do with cost or socialism; it has instead to do with survival.
How easy it would be to hollow out of America with a weaponized coronavirus, which this may well be. Of all the countries we'd be the first to go.
https://www.army-technology.com/features/featurethe-worlds-most-dangerous-bioweapons-4546207/
Covid-19 may simply have clarified for many voters, and candidates, that their top priority was defeating Trump.
But remember, it was still merely looming on Super Tuesday, and Biogen was not yet a household word.
Sanders is losing because the moderate candidates jumped out early and because the majority of voters, like them, believe that the quicker route to the things Sanders promises (better healthcare, addressing climate change) is the longer one via the moderates rather than an attempt at a shorter one via Sanders.
9
@Anonyma
I agree with your analysis here. First, defeat most Republicans, then start working in earnest about setting up a universal healthcare system and tackle climate change, with a majority of moderates spurred by the trump Scare. Inaction on those fronts seems very unlikely in a Democratic administration, Biden can carry the vote with some new blood and energy. Let's get to work and get things done, finally...
4
Not Really. Bernie 2020 sounds like Bernie 2016 and that is the problem. Lack of pragmatism. Selling change to people who want it is easy. Selling 180 degree change to people who want some semblance of rational order is a different story. Both Bernie and Biden have one thing the other candidates don't; they have a track history and lengthy record. While not all past decisions match today's standards and not all details are nailed down you know what you are getting. Right now Biden reminds me of Governor Moonbeam aka Jerry Brown of California who ended up reelected for a second term.
8
I think Mr. Douthat is onto something here. But I wouldn’t stop with the Coronavirus. The world of late has become a much more uncertain and unpredictable place. It’s not just the virus; look at the financial markets. There are now multiple threats to the well being of the electorate. And maybe, just maybe, what we’re seeing is a new sense among voters that moderation, caution, and calm is what is needed now in a president. Surrounded by so much uncertainty, voters may simply want to lower the risk level in an area they still control, namely, presidential elections. We’ve been through years of animosity toward “Washington insiders.” Perhaps people have come to understand that career politicians have definite virtues. They know how to get a job done.
16
The race right now is where the polls have had it for the vast majority of the last year. We had too many same-lane choices for a bit, and we read too much into a couple of early contests that were skewed by those choices and by atypical demographics.
4
Respectfully disagree, Ross.
The virus is not the reason Bernie lost. American voters are smart, by and large. Super Tuesday showed that Americans want to unite around a proven leader who can move the ball forward on many fronts.
Bernie's appeal withered for several reasons:
-In 30 years in the Senate and House, Bernie's gotten nothing done, and Americans want someone who can get things done.
-Bernie seeks to add trillions to our national debt by offering everyone anything and everything under the sun, without a clue nor worry about how to pay for it - other than putting his trillions of dollars of annual additional debt onto the backs of our kids.
-In 2016 his supporters physically threatened Hillary and her supporters non-stop, and Bernie did nothing to correct that abuse. Same story in 2020, just a different year.
-Bernie is a proud socialist, not a democrat - and the U.S. will never, ever elect a socialist as president.
-Bernie does not seem to like America or most Americans.
Governor Strickland's quote sums up why Joe won big on Super Tuesday: “No one wants [Sanders'] finger pointing at them for the next four years, so people got it together.”
Trump is doing everything he can to keep Bernie in this race, because that is the only way Trump wins in November.
There are many folks who support Bernie. To be truly inclusive, Joe must reach out to them and show them how his policies will help them.
24
2020 = Dump Trump in the case of the majority of the American people and the vast majority of the Democrats.
Sander's policies will begin to appear in the party platforms in 2022 and 2024, if his supporters do the right thing and make sure that Trump and the GOP are gone. That should be everyone's goal.
20
I just want to say, since people have been recommending that Bernie drop out, that I think it would be a mistake:
First, let progressives in the majority of states still to vote have their say. Let the dems see how large the movement is and see how much they need a progressive agenda to win.
Also, if you want to see super low voter turn out, make it a one ticket president. This could be disastrous for other democratic races.
Most people vote in primaries for the president but push the other buttons.
If there is just one candidate in the race, and with the virus going around, voter turnout will plummet and it will be bad all around.
13
@Nathan I'm more than unsure how having months of Sanders attacking Biden will do much to help defeat Trump. Of course if that is not the objective than of course indulge Sanders and his supporters.
4
@Nathan, encouraging Sanders to remain in the race once it’s clear that no mathematically viable path exists for his nomination simply gives him a pulpit from which to continue preaching his monotonic self-righteousness. This endears him to his small base, but it simply reminds everyone else why they chose Biden, not to mention handing the GOP a lot of free opposition research.
8
@Craig Freedman
If Biden can't stand up to fair minded criticism from Sanders, he is really going to wither from Trump's broadsides starting with an endless morass around Hunter and his Ukraine junket.
1
The Covid-19 virus will affect the Democratic nomination in other ways too. Look for the Party to use the virus as reason to cancel the remaining debates. But the real reason will be keeping Biden off the stage where his frailties and cognitive decline become more evident.
It is hard not to be sympathetic to a loyal, long serving public servant and politician. I fear his declining abilities will make him subject to ridicule or pity. But ultimately we all go there.
9
@Jared I am quite sure that Trump and his handlers fear a debate with Biden --or anyone -- much more than Democrats would fear having Biden debate Trump. I have been saying for months that I think that Trump will find an excuse not to debate ANY opponent in the fall. We shall see.
1
@Jared Read the following verbatim quote from a recent Trump rally speech and tell me who is more cognitively impaired, Biden or Trump:
“good genes, very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right — who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators”
1
@C. Bowling
I doubt anyone fears Biden as a debater anymore.
It is clear Trump fears Biden as a candidate. But that is different.
1
Voters chose Biden. Bernie thought he could keep the anti- Hillary voters - but it’s 4 years later and everyone grew up and Sanders b message is rigid and angry. His lack of leadership was evident in that did not have the courage to speak to his voters last night.
11
"[H]istory likes to keep things simple"? Sorry, Ross, history is rarely "simple." And to make an argument about causation you need evidence. You don't cite a single bit of evidence that voters turned to Biden because they think he can deal with corona better than Sanders: not even one interview with a voter who said that.
20
"[H]istory likes to keep things simple"? Sorry, Ross, history is rarely "simple." And to make an argument about causation you need evidence. You don't cite a single bit of evidence that voters turned to Biden because they think he can deal with corona better than Sanders: not even one interview with a voter who said that.
5