The Trump regime had to choose between peoples lives & trying to forestall a recession. They chose stopping the recession.
1
I'm neutral/clinical on the administration - try to recognize the good as good and the bad as bad - but think comments focusing on its ineffectiveness are too narrow. These two parties are at war with each other and don't care about the collateral damage. A Republican could have a cure and the Dems wouldn't support it, and vice versa. Furthermore, we already have a $1 trillion deficit, and interest rates are already very low. The law of diminishing returns applies to both types of responses, and both would be pushing on a string.
1
I love the line about having a strong government response. That’s certainly not in the cards with this administration. Will this be the thing that brings down DJT? One would think if Biden could capitalize on it; but he can’t seem to get words out coherently. He should just read prepared speeches and communicate in writing.
1
Air & water are essential to all societies, all sovereigns, all people. Life as we know it cannot exist without. No one should be able to own or control such a vital element. These elements belong to the Earth and to all its inhabitants.
'OIL' is another essential element to modern societies and to a world that depends on fossil fuels to simply operate.
What would people do if someone or some country said that it had an ownership claim to 'air,' or 'water'? And that one had to deal with them in order to obtain such an essential element that comes from the planet Earth? I think people would say NO! No one can or should own an essential element...and then even play games with the supply and the price of that essential element.
What would give them such a right, such a power, to 'own' such a critical element? "They" did not invent or create air, or water, or oil. The Earth did. It therefore, belongs to all the inhabitants of the Earth. It should not be subject to private control or to sovereign control or nationalized or privatized. It is of the Earth and for the Earth. (Yes, of course in the case of oil there is an extraction cost involved, etc. So that cost needs to be covered by the inhabitants who need it in its extracted and refined form, no arguments there...
But why should a small group or tribe of desert dwellers who just happen to be dwelling on the sand dunes over the top of one of the Earth's largest stores of oil be entitled to claim absolute ownership of it?
1
The economy (of last week) was having trouble growing at 2% with interst rates at 1.5% and a trillion dollar deficit (i.e. permanent stimulous). That not so great scenario has tettered off a sharp edge because of outside factors. It will take alot to get the economy back to any level of growth, no matter who the President is.
1
This article is probably the best argument for NYT maintaining the opportunity for readers to comment. Unlike numerous commenters, Mr. Irwin makes nary a mention of the President's economic contributions to a failing economy: on infrastructure, on a regressive tax policy, on tariffs and trade policy, on a medical system resilient to an epidemic, on backward-looking environmental and climate policy, and - the greatest failing of all - lies about all of the above, coming at the rate of dozens per day, creating a sense of profound instability.
6
Since the 2008 crash the USA government debt went up because it had to bail out big business where Joe Public had their pension funds invested. There was a graph in the NY Times that showed the increase in USA government debt just going up and up and it matched the graph showing private corporate profits going up and up. Shouldn't those businesses have to pay back the government for bailing them out instead of profiting from it. How is the government meant to pay off government debt. There really is no meat on the bone for the USA government to bail out big business if there is another crash because government debt has not been paid down and has just kept going up since the 2008 crash.
Maybe the tipping point is the oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and the Coronavirus but this crash was to be expected considering the reckless debt driven USA economy and reckless deregulation of contraints and laws put there to protect the economy.
The reason I think this is because NZ's main exports have been hit badly and our markets haven't gone down as much as yours and it's because our government debt is healthier and our government is better organised to handle this crisis than the USA. USA can't just say that because oil is a big income earner it has caused a crash. More like because in 2018 Trump deregulated the Frank-Dodd Act so small banks were not included. Too much debt again and reckless lending fuelling the sharemarket crash and USA just keeps repeating the same mistakes
1
@CK
Not a problem. Really a straightforward process.
1
Wake up American companies. It is time to move all of your manufacturing back home and be less greedy for profit. You can produce everything from nuts and bolts to a finished product on our soil . How much money have you cost Americans due to the one virus or other. Stop your greed and come home.
3
@DPT
Please, tell me how this would work? How will we build the foundries for computer chips requiring years of lead time plus the requisite training of labor requiring which will require a much better education system and the securing the massive amounts of investment capital are all questions with no answers right now. Whether you wish to believe it or not , ours is a globalized economy.
2
@AEB
We put a man on the moon, dude. Bringing business back isn't rocket science.
3
@DPT We outsourced work that we didn't want to do. Have you seen the factories overseas that make the stuff that we buy? Would you want to work at any of them?
1
Trump is now considering cutting payroll taxes. Isn't that the money that we contribute to Social Security and Medicare? The GOP has openly stated that they want to shrink or eliminate these programs. How sneaky of them to use a payroll cut in the name of economic damage control.
7
Unlike the previous downturn caused by the Bush administration allowing the deregulation of banks to rip off people who wanted to buy homes (and then blamed on Obama who fixed it), this is happening DURING Trump's "reign". The buck literally stops there.
But President Trump will find a way top blame this on the Democrats.
And Trump's base will support him thinking that their suffering is for a good cause. Socialist bailouts for farmers and tax breaks to the rich are just not gonna do it.
4
Well, the Saudis, never our friends, are out to kill the American shale producers.
I am thinking that, because of the rapid fall off of oil production in new shale wells, starving that industry from capital will increase the price of oil world wide to $80-100 per barrel or more within a year. Americans will rue the day that they thought they could live without American fossil fuels.
1
@Truthbeknown The Saudi's proposed to curtail production to counter reduced demand, which would lend support to a higher price floor on oil, which in turn would benefit America's shale producers. Russia balked on reducing oil production and therefore it is the Russian who are targeting America's shale industries, and not the Saudi's.
Trump's good buddy MBS essentially declared economic war on the US oil patch. Meanwhile we send ships and aircraft carriers to protect ARAMCO. What's wrong with this picture?
4
This is why Capitalism is a scam. The idea that endless consumption of mostly useless goods should be the lifeblood of financial stability is nuts. It is not sustainable on a planet with limited natural resources producing products that are toxic to both produce and dispose of, that funnels most of the money generated by those toxic goods to a mirco-population. Yes, it has seemingly generated a middle class, but we can see globally how generous and altruistic the powers that be are in sharing that wealth by eroding, blocking and undermining laws and policies that truly make life better for the masses.
The selfish hoarding at the top is the driver behind the fear of redistribution of wealth in the form of progressive taxes, which should approach 100% for people with a net worth of, what, $50 million? How much money do these people need? If this drives those folks out of the work force, good riddance. Corruption needs to be weeded out as the parasites that steal trillions are part of the problem as well. The whole economy needs to be retooled into a green economy based on trans-species equality and an ethic of healthfully sustaining life on this planet for the entire ecosystem, not the mindless comfort of one species, warm and cosy, imbedded in our media gizmos as the world is burning. But only a global catastrophe will probably motivate real change.
6
I'm wondering if recent events will be enough to wake up Trump's supporters - the very people who will be part of the hardest-hit segment of the American population. These folks, who cling most tenuously to financial stability, will take a big hit during this crisis. Many won't have health insurance. Many will be in debt. Many will find themselves unemployed. Their cars and homes may be repossessed. Meanwhile, Trump will continue to fly around between his posh resort and the campaign trail, funded with taxpayers' money. He'll blame it on Obama, his bête noir, and maybe these folks will believe him. But the old adage about "fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" might resonate, eventually. With any luck, these misguided souls will see the light and dump Trump in 2020.
4
The Ponzi Pyramid Plan o' Endless Growth teeter, teeters, teeters and…?
2
With Republicans' lives now dependent on whether their less lucky fellows can spread the virus, maybe we'll get some momentum toward universal coverage. Nah...
1
@br - Wal, we cain't afford none of that socialized healthcare!!
1
"But an economic expansion that would reach its 11th anniversary this summer is in danger of a premature end."
PREMATURE???
8
The Republicans were warned that if they gave everything away to the corporations with their 2017 tax bill, leading to increased deficits, there would be no way to respond to a severe economic downturn. Well, here they are, increasing the already outrageous deficit by further bankrupting social security (cutting the payroll tax).
18
Short the vix, refi your mortgages, buy the S&P at 20,000, go live in the woods with the rest of the preppers.
3
Debt has been building for too long due to the supply-side nonsense. The recent deficits have increased much too fast for the economy to be considered in good shape. Deficits should decrease in a strong economy. It has been a bubble that only needed small reason to burst.
Eventually, the ability to stimulate the economy will be unavailable. Since interest rates are so low and deficits are huge, the horizon looks very uncertain. (It won't stop Trump and the GOP from trying to put in some useless tax cuts for their benefactors--tax cuts won't help if no one will go out and spend money.)
The full extent of the virus is unknown right now and taking action prior to having some idea is wrong. The market need to be calmed with rational statements...but all we seem to get is silly tweets. This just adds to the uncertainty.
The only certainty will be that Trump will blame the Dems or anyone else for whatever goes wrong. This is really the first test that Trump has had requiring some actual financial and infrastructure management skills--he is likely to fail unfortunately.
16
Someone needs to tell the MIC that you have to have a job to get a measly reduction in payroll taxes. Now us Senior retirees just have had our income trashed and our future SS increases shrunk to nothing because of the deflation that this absolutely stupid pro Wall Street President has just set us up for. Zero interest rates here we come!
20
I just looked at his facebook page, Donald J Trump, and he said today; "great news for the consumer - petrol prices are coming down". That's all nothing else about other factors around this.
And you wonder why the markets are in freefall!
13
"President Trump late Monday endorsed ... " Whatever. Maybe we could get somebody else to deal with this?
4
Give it a rest. The turmoil today was the result of a Saudi/Russian tiff.
@T Smith Hardly.
@T Smith Uh......regardless of who's in the fight, the blood has already splattered onto innocent bystanders. Like you and me in the Texas economy.
1
Yes, but it’s going to drive the oil patch in the US into bankruptcy.
1
In my state our senator , Bob Menendez, held a news conference where his priority was helping illegal immigrants hit economically and to make sure they get free health care. In the article there was even a statement by a supporter that illegal immigrants was their priority. I suspect this is why the Star Ledger suspended comments.
It is unbelievable that Democrats would even come out and start this conversation when so many Americans are facing health and economic disaster. It would be an incredibly stupid move that will shift the conversation in Trump's favor.
6
Not Likely!
3
@Hellen Possibly this would help to avoid demonization of illegal immigrants as corona virus carriers who can't afford medical care. If their care is provided for, at least for ILI and/or respiratory illness (which may turn out to be corona virus), that could help stop the spread. The SAME BENEFITS should be provided to EVERYONE for same reason, as long as we're in this limbo situation with too little info, too little control, etc. regarding COVID-19. It's a smart investment, keeping people healthy enough to work and preserving the economy, right?
2
@Hellen Do you suggest that we take a ranking approach to health care? Rich people first. Ordinary people second. Poor people third. Immigrants fourth. Illegal immigrants last, or not at all. Rich immigrants get to jump the line from fourth to first. Illegal immigrants who are not poor jump from last to second.
1
There were signs before COVID, and even a year ago economists were around 50/50 on recession, The stupidity of the GOP was the massive unneeded corp tax cut, and the already ongoing low interest rates, It was only a matter of luck and time that the "Trump" economy would hit the proverbial iceberg, Well, two appeared: COVID and now Trump's best friend Saudi Arabia slashing oil prices, which will domino from airlines to hotels to tourism to auto industry to energy etc,,,that now is the recession tipping point,
And what tools do we have left to fight it? OK, Trump, YOUR crisis has arrived, show us the art of the deal,,,we're waiting,
26
So would an oil import tax help to stabilize the markets and stick it to the Saudis and the Russians.
2
What are hedge fund managers, wealthy Wall Street players,
and fortune 500 CEO'S going to lose in this economic downturn?
One of their many homes, a yacht, private jet, economic security?
2
Now would have been a great time to consider a major tax cut, not in the middle of an economic expansion that needed no boosting.
Instead, we are starting at uncertainty greater than anything in 2008-2009 but with a massive budget deficit that will necessarily restrict any government response.
This is going to get a lot uglier before it gets better.
16
@KH I have a great idea. Maybe the feds should lay off a bunch of people; because surely the best thing to do during a recession is maximize the number of people that are unemployed or underemployed.
P.S. With the dropping oil prices carving an even bigger hole in the state's budget, this is what I fully expect the esteemed governor of Alaska to do any day now.
1
This isn't as sudden as it seems. The roots go back to 1987 when Reagan replaced Volcker with Greenspan as Fed chief and the long embrace with borrowing began. The great expansion has been artificially stoked with perpetually low interest rates and irresponsible tax cuts. Consumption and booming stock market have been fueled by debt. The market was desperately looking for a reason to crash and found two (virus and Saudi/Russia oil dispute) at the same time. The Great Unraveling will crunch one industry after the other, starting with travel, then hospitality, manufacturing, financial, etc. It's going to be brutal and long lasting.
20
I don't want a payroll tax cut without some commitment to fixing social security while it's still relatively easy to do.
16
And the fix is?
1
The fix is to raise the wage number that social security is taxed on. The guy who earns 250k is paying the same amount as the guy who earns 125k. Roughly.
2
Trump coasted on the economy he inherited for 3 years. In his first real trial as POTUS, which was not self-inflicted like the trade war with China and Europe, he has show he is totally incompetent and also craven. He is trying to "manage" the PR instead of dealing with the real human suffering and panic.
Trump and his incompetent team of bunglers had 2 months notice of this outbreak. Could Trump turn to the CDC which he had already gutted with budget cuts of over 80%? Could he turn to the task force which Obama stood up after the Ebola and Zika viruses which John Bolton, another puffed up ignoramus, had already completely eliminated? So he nothing and no one to prepare us for this disaster. Did we stock pile essentials likeface masks, hand sanitizer, alcohol, soap, paper products, etc.? NO. Did we immediately strart to make millions of test kits? NO. Even tiny South Korea has was turning them out at 150,00 per week and testing thousands of people per day. So Trump shows his total incapacity to govern. His only aim in office is self-enrichment.
He was just impeached for putting his own political benefit ahead of those of the United States. He is doing it again, just as Adam Schiff warned he would only this time it is not the Ukraine which will pay the price, it is Americans here on American soil, who will get sick, lose their jobs and perhaps their lives because of this unbelievable incompetence. Instead of fiddling while Rome burned as Nero did, Trump played golf.
40
There's a ship heading towards an iceberg, where's the captain? Well folks, he's golfing down at Maro-Lago working on his short game.
28
I really hope the meat-sack in the Whitehouse isn't seriously considering a cut to federal payroll withholding tax. I don't want it. It won't induce me to go out to restaranty, movies or anything. It will mean that I'll just get less tax return of will have to pay more in taxes next year. Here's a better idea. Make sure everyone who needs to be tested can get tested free or for a nominal charge. Give some support to people who may lose pay due to quarantine and can't work from home.
24
Don't worry, America. Trump, GOP and the fed have all sorts of tools to prevent a recession. What, you say those stable geniuses already gave a huge cut to the rich, even when economy was doing fine? No problem, the fed will just lower prime rates to Wall Street lenders. Oh, you mean that's already been done, pressured by the stablest of geniuses?
You can start worrying now, America.
15
I don't care what anyone says, Trump owns this economy. Not Obama, Donald J. Trump.
He claimed responsibility for it ad nauseam.
Remember this on election day.
27
It gets worse by the minute. Now Trump is proposing something to deal with the risk and uncertainty shaking the markets. You know the answer? Tax cuts Duh! A significant payroll tax cut is the cure for what ails the market of course. Someone should remind the Republicans that payroll taxes fund Social Security that is set to go run out of money in 2035. We are on our way to another Trump bankruptcy—4 more years should allow him time to fix us for making fun of him.
15
When you put a man who bankrupted casinos, a man to whom American banks would not loan money, who took $7 from his own "charitable trust" to pay for his kid's Boy Scout fees and a $20,000 portrait of himself at the helm of our economy, would you not expect it to crater?
The only surprise is that it took him this long.
21
Cheap Saudi fuel will put American Oil Producers out of business. America will then be reliant on Middle East oil again.
Which will lead to more American Armed Forces needed in the Middle East to support Saudi Arabia. And around we all go again.
7
Does trump know he can't extricate himself and his administration from this mess by suing the United States and filing bankruptcy? Someone should tell him.
12
@Paul Wertz Do not count out his propensity to try this. He sued CNN for libel last week. Old habits die hard.
2
I hear the lilting melody of Goldman Sachs prediction of $150+ a barrel for crude. Wasn't so long ago, and the price has been down ever since.
6
Wisdom of globalization in question.
Shale and fracking oil glut, price crash and resulting job losses looming.
70% of U.S.economy dependent on consumption.
Middle class barely keeping afloat.
Record student loan debt and default.
Credit card balances at record of 930 billion.
Nations deficit at 1 trillion and counting.
Anyone still think we should return to business as usual?
20
Will it even be possible to return to business as usual after 2020, whatever the outcome of the election.
3
"But if large gatherings like conferences and concerts continue to be canceled, and more people decide they will not fly this summer and stay home more generally, it’s likely to cripple the consumer-driven side of the economy."
Just a guess but I'm expecting that global carbon emissions will dip due to the Corona virus and related declines in economic activity. Something to celebrate? Not really, but it's interesting that the only thing that seems to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is an economic contraction. Hardly an optimal scenario but it sure does speak volumes about the global economy we've created for ourselves, one that is entirely dependent upon consumption, growth and debt (and energy) for its survival.
16
@Mark B So well said. Perfect!
Low oil prices will hurt Russia and Saudi Arabia, possibly destabilizing those two countries. Immediately, does that mean they will create less mischief in our elections?
2
@Peter Probably more--misery loves company.
2
Not to worry. "Deficit Don" is on the case!
9
He’s reputed to be an expert in bankruptcy.
7
@Jack Shultz Expert falling into bankruptcy, not getting out of it.
2
Steven Mnuchin said this was not like the recession when we did not know what was going to happen. That now with the coronavirus impact on the economy we do know. It is a matter of a few months (just until November?).
So he knows. He knows coronavirus will be contained. That 1 million plus 5 million test kits are enough for the American population north of 300 million.
Is Mr. Mnuchin saying that we are soooo stupid that we believe him? Is he talking just to the Trump voters base? Is he calling them deplorable? I watched a WH press conference about re-election. Not about saving lives in a coronavirus pandemic. No plan, no leadership, no science. Deplorable.
14
@Aurace Rengifo Mnuchin is a fraud, a mortgage-fraud huckster and failed movie producer--no business in the job he's in.
8
The fact that Trump was elected certainly must have caused many Republicans to reassess their estimations of the intelligence of their base, and have since carefully avoided overestimating the intelligence of the public overall.
Certainly they have lost any fear they ever may have had about insulting the public’s intelligence.
1
The virus is no longer containable. This is the reality. You have countries that are in chaos around the world. How well do you suppose Syria, in a state of war with millions of people in flight, is containing the virus? Oh, that’s right, we haven’t heard of the Virus in Syria. Could it be, the bug forgot to pay them a visit? Unlikely. How about India? How about Venezuela?
This ridiculous, massive panic, will not help anyone and will cost thousands of people their livelihood. I am sure, not too long from now, college texts will be writing about the corona hysteria of 2020.
If we were smart however, we could use this to understand and prepare for a real future medical threat. For a virus way more lethal then this. In that sense, all this insanity could end up serving a constructive purpose.
6
And no one is saying anything about North Korea.
2
@Pat This is likely to kill 1% to 3.5% of the people who contract it. While most people will survive, there still will be a lot of deaths. This virus appears to be 10-35 times more deadly than the flu. The economic damage will come from two things. First, a decline in the population, and second the loss of economic activity due to people avoiding normal activities. Both will happen, and there is nothing that will stop either. This is a real medical threat right now. It has the potential to kill 10 million Americans and as many as 120 million world wide. Everyone will know someone who dies from this virus.
Trump depends on fear, his response will use fear to protect himself.
2
@Federalist The problem is that a virus doesn’t respond to fear. And when the virus hits rural America his supporters they will begin to understand his lies.
7
There is no discussion of the underlying cause for Russia to go toe to toe with Saudi Arabia. It seems like a desperate measure on the part of Putin. I have seen reference to the Russian economy sputtering. Is it worse than one could imagine?
7
FAKE NEWS.
Right, GOP ?
10
Bernie -- Drop out NOW!
We need Joe!!
Beat Trump!!!
11
@John
Obviously we need Bernie. Medicate for all. Duh.
5
@John Joe will do nothing as well. Just what can a politician do besides make fools vote for them? Joe Biden will surround himself with like minded republicans and protect the wealth of our overlords. He has no plan to ever do anything for the people of the country, you know, unless they are wealthy.
3
One thing for sure. It sure does expose the foolishness of our capitalist way is the only way obsession.
We have nothing in reserve everything is running at its lean best. Then you need more and it’s not there.
Also these big dips just hand over more of the economy to more deep pocketed who can withstand it and buy.
Just like 2008 knocked hundreds of thousands of little guys out of the market.
8
@John You have hit upon the reason for the intentional boom and bust economy. In the lows, deep deep pockets get assets at bargain basement prices. Look for all of the fracking companies to get bought out quickly as they fail.
The Trump Titanic has finally struck the Iceberg.
Save yourselves.
12
I wonder what Soylent Industries shares are selling at.
3
@Simple Country Lawyer I’d think that Soylent would be running lower due to the probability of viral contamination in food products!
3
@Simple Country Lawyer It’s funny how this product is so polarizing. Personally, I ordered an extra box to keep around as compact emergency rations in case of unexpected quarantine or supply chain disruptions.
1
The silver lining in all this bad news is that it marks the beginning of the end to the disastrous reign of Donald J. Trump. Things will get better, unless he decides to start a nuclear war with North Korea to bail himself out. On the other hand, with all his contact with his beloved cult followers, maybe the virus will take care of things for us.
5
@James Mazzarella I would speculate that Trumps old smokers base will be declining in numbers soon. Indeed, their should be a general decrease in old stubborn conservatives in general, republican or democrat.
I'll start buying when China is open again for business, not before.
When they can get through this, it shows the way forward for all other countries/markets and how deep a country can expect to dip before resuming in normal mode.
For now, way down we go.
6
@Anne
I am a rural mail carrier. Wish ( the Chinese mail order company) packages were suspended from delivery at the time of the virus’ beginning. Packages from wish are beginning to trickle in again. China is recovering but that is because it’s an authoritarian regime. Don’t make your bets on China.
2
You would seem to be attributing the volatility today to fear of the virus. I believe today’s volatility was driven, for the most part, by Saudi Arabia’s dramatic reduction in oil prices which is directed at Russia. Sure the virus is a problem, but it was only a component of today’s volatility.
4
@T Smith The way I see it it was 30% oil 70% virus. It’s been a long time since we saw oil take the markets down 7+ %.
1
@Bill Its been even longer since we saw the Saudis cut the price of oil between 5 and 7 dollars in one day.
2
If we get lucky and the Coronavirus does start to wane in a few weeks, rather than a bunch of further interest rate cuts or financial engineering, maybe it is time to make any stimulus that is tried be tied to infrastructure spending, so we have something to show for it for a change. The last thing that is needed is a blank check to defense contractors and spending tied to overseas made consumer goods. Everything that can be upgraded from fifty years of neglect, from bridge and road repairs, airport upgrades, Amtrak tunnel and track repairs, possibly plow some money into public universities, and hardening the electric grid.
25
@Kevin You are a hopeless optimist if you think Trump is ever going to approve infrastructure investment.
3
@Bill Remember, infrastructure is Socialism. That's what they called Eisenhower when he built the freeway system. Anything the Government does with our tax dollars that benefit citizens is Socialism.Unless your're bailing out banks.That's Capitalism.
He claimed the powers of a king.
Now he's having his "Corona-tion."
29
There is a silver lining to everything! Haliburton down 35%
24
Who would have thought that you cannot run a presidency through a social media platform...
19
America's only hope is that Congress refunds American Taxpayers for all of their paychecks associated with the Biden Investigations & Republicans' roles in lying to their fellow countrymen during the Impeachment.
21
Seeing trump and his wax figure vp on CNN right now provided some comic relief to this Coronavirus crisis. Neither has any idea what to do about this latest actual problem that threatens their side show of an excuse for an administration. The people who work for them in this area seem to have an idea of what to do. Where were they 2 months ago?
Ok they are now addressing the issue and making an effort to calm the fears that have tanked the markets and perhaps caused unnecessary infections.
17
@KDKulper I have two friends who had plans to go to Malaysia for a couple of months. like they did last year, canceled their plans two months ago when they did a bit of research on the virus. The Trump White House has been dragging its feet for far to long as things got worst. At one point Trump declaring it was a hoax. The White House held a press conference this evening on the news but gave no real help. They will tell you tomorrow. A lost opportunity.
6
From the U.S Energy Information Administration website:
"In 2018, net imports of petroleum averaged 2.3 MMb/d, the equivalent of 11% of total U.S. petroleum consumption and the lowest percentage since 1957." So just over 80 + % of our energy requirements are being supported through domestic production. Help me understand. For the sake of profits the big domestic energy companies are going to start buying cheap Saudi crude to crush the domestic energy industry?
2
@Fran
In a word, yes. Not just for profits, but for survival. Gasoline is probably the most price competitive commodity Americans buy. How many of our fellow citizens do you think will pay 50 cents more per gallon because a given refiner is buying domestic crude at prices above market rate when the station across the street is not?
And today much of the refining business (gasoline manufacture) is independent from the exploration and production companies, so refiners' business decisions are influenced less by how they play for the production end of the business than they might once have been.
1
lots of US oil is exported. it won't be sold at the higher that existed before today.
1
@jagets thank you for that succinct explanation.
2
Does anyone else suspect the oil war between the Saudis and Russia is choreographed? I just keep thinking about that famous high five between Putin and MBS and the weird timing of it. The Saudis could have sunk the cost of oil anytime they wanted to squash the U.S. natural gas industry. Why now?
38
@Blackcat66
Why now? For one, this "war" could be part of an intervention that favors their mutual buddy, Trump, in his upcoming election. Remember "don't switch horses in midstream"? Here's a bigger stream, folks.
1
@Blackcat66 --AND the Russians & Saudis know that Trump never criticizes them including today for their oil price squabble that helped to tank the stock markets. Both Russia & S.A. want Trump re-elected as he's easily controlled by them. This severe Dow downturn + the resulting threat of a recession won't help Trump so their oil price war is odd.
3
they are attacking Russian oil, not US gas.
2
Isn't it great our allies the Saudis are putting the screws to the US energy sector?
Just another thing to add to the list of their concern for their American "friends:"
oil embargo
9/11 terrorists
Osama Bin Laden
State-sponsored murder - Kashoggi
I'm sure I missed a few but you get the idea.
Wondering how our current Administration will respond?
46
@American in London. "With friends like these, who needs enemies?"
8
@American in London Don't forget the Academy Award moment of Bush doing the sword dance with the Saudi King and Princes. Priceless!
1
@American in London
We blew it with Iran and now are stuck with the KSA.
2
I heard it said by one of the economic pundits that if there was ever an economic slowdown China was in a much better position than the US to ride it out. Is this a perfect storm of events. worldwide panic, (uncalled for in my view fed by a rabid headline seeking media) shutting down international trade and travel, an oil battle going on between Russia and Saudia Arabia, and the most inept administration that has ever graced the Oval office.
13
I think you heard wrong. millions of chinese out of work is not a good thing for their leaders.
3
The very stable genius was too busy watching Fox News, golfing, gutting all Government Departments and attending Gong Show Rallies that he did not have time to prepare for the inevitable.
Remember when he said ‘coronavirus is going to be good for America’? He lied.
47
Capitalism is acting really stupid. It is apparently incapable of "Hey, hold my beer why I we humans take a few months off to NOT DIE in large numbers OK?" Just close the markets for a while, let's deal with coronavirus, and then reopen.
10
@Melanie
Get a grip. How many people have died from the flu this year? Should we all "take a few months off" every flu season?
6
I wonder how much of a cause was aggressive borrowing by big corporations
6
I wouldn't have guessed the drop in oil. What's next? Meteor strike?
6
@RonRich Massive fires + earthquakes in California, earthquakes in Japan; your guess is as good as mine.
3
@RonRich Trump re-elected? I think id rather the meteor strike.
5
Has the modern economy ever faced a recession that was caused by an epidemic? No one knows what is going to happen to the economy, because the main determinant of its fate is not going to be any financial institution or market, it is going to be this virus and the human response to it.
I am not very impressed with the human response so far. Each and every country that is currently facing community transmission has wasted the crucial first few days or even weeks in denial. Every single one. Most countries of the world are still in denial, which will lead to more spread and more deaths.
21
@A Cynic
Actually, it probably won't. It has never been the case that we have been able to stop the spread of viruses that are as contagious as flu or Covid-19 and, given the extent of international movement today, this will eventually cover the world. The only thing strenuous efforts to stop the spread will have is to damage the world economically and, possibly move the bell curve of infections over time to the right and lower it's peak; the area under the curve (total number of infections) will likely be the same. Of course, this may be important if the peak is above the ability of the health care system at any one time. But stopping economic activity will have real consequences for the health of people.
2
@Bob Major damage to the world economy could very well cause a lot more deaths than this virus, which affects mainly sick, elderly people who are at risk for death by many, many causes. Speaking as one of that group, I'm just sad that people are so freaked out about this (among many other) virus. But as long as the panic is up, it'll stay up as the economy tanks. The less people have, the more they have to lose, so business closures and layoffs are what we all have to fear most. Globally.
2
Shale oil: Mother Nature strikes back
14
and that's supposed to mean what?
1
The perfect storm - that is where we are. A recession caused by corona is one thing and scary enough as supply chains collapse, exports slow down, tourism dries up and fearful consumers spend less as layoffs loom. But couple this with the monstrous debt loads borne by corporations world wide and we may have a fire that will make what happened in Australia look like a candle blowing in the wind. We have done this to ourselves. Ridiculously low interest rates since 2008 has created a debt bubble the world has never seen before. If companies cannot roll over debt we are in big trouble. Bankruptcies will be a foregone conclusion. Stock markets are folding like houses of cards as all the speculative money is leaving. And soon the good money will too, as panic sets in. Sadly, this will become far more than just a correction.
31
Nice. Add to the hysteria. Way to go.
2
@DB
My pleasure. Hysteria has been upon us for at least two weeks, I was just trying to describe where it might go next. Lending will be it, in my humble opinion. Do you own corporate bonds, or are in a mutual fund that does? Be careful.
6
@DB he is right.
The economic foundation was built on shifting sand. And, we all know, it was built by Trump.
Remember that on election day.
2
Tired of winning yet?
54
How idiotic is our energy policy?
Drill Baby Drill!
There is something horribly wrong with an economic system that crashes in response to cheap energy.
30
China’s belt just got smaller and it’s road shortened. Ambitions need to be adjusted to new circumstances.
4
@Charlie Chan Can
They'll adjust just fine but will we?
2
My suspicion is that Trump is impeding the supply of corona test kits to keep the contamination numbers artificially low.
34
Of course you do. Complete nonsense. Nothing like politicizing this outbreak. Good job.
3
@DB Where are the test kits then?
5
@DB: Since we cannot depend upon the White House to tell the truth about anything, and the president has muzzled the CDC, whose representatives are no longer allowed to speak publicly without first getting approval from Mike Pence, what do you think is going to be the result? People will read the papers, look around them, use their own ears and eyes, and then come to their own conclusions. It is perfectly reasonable, given the fact that we have a dishonest man in the Oval Office who apparently cares for no one but himself and his own pleasures, to assume the worst of him. I suppose the best thing that could be said is that at least he consistently lives up to that expectation.
3
The oil shale business is massively over leveraged. That debt fueled bubble is about to burst. This could cause a financial crisis as the lenders are certainly going to take massive losses that they will pass on to the "losers" AKA the American public.
Another wall street greed driven financial crisis. yay. We are due, as they happen like clockwork every 15 ish years.
When are we going to realize that this is the business model of these wall street types: Privatize profits, and socialize risks.
30
Every industry in the US for the most part is a debt fueled bubble. How many 'unicorns' have never earned a profit?
4
Macron has moved aggressively to reduce welfare spending.
1
@idealistjam Sounds like we need another tax cut for the wealthy, eh?
1
Either you’re an oil consumer and can use sub $2 gas or you’re a stock investors and should be ready with cash
2
Instead of bailing out banks and multinational corporations this time, how about we send everybody a fat check?
THAT would stimulate the ‘consumer’ side of things, trust me!
20
@Alierias Yeah, just dump $50 bills from airplanes over the cities. Eliminate the middleman.
We have repeatedly cited Saudi Arabia’s violations of individual rights and Russia’s election tampering, seeing these as fundamental threats to the US. Then, in a day they threaten the American oil industry with highly damaging bankruptcies. These countries are huge oil powers and are able to cause huge economic harm to the US. We oppose fossil fuels and too often ignore their economic impact. The harm done today was great and focusing on lesser harms these nations cause is naive.
2
Of course Trump will blame Obama for both the slump in the stock market and his dismal performance in preparing the nation to fight the onslaught of the coronavirus. The man has no shame and does not accept any responsibility when things go wrong. It will be interesting to see who he will blame when it is revealed to the public that thousands of Americans are infected with the virus.
27
@Dearson For Trump, everything is Obama's fault, except for the solid economy he inherited from Obama.
3
@Dearson Yet another reason that we need a wall.
1
@Dearson
He'll blame Pence, of course. That's the only reason Pence was appointed as the CV Czar - he's the designated fall man. After all, we have a Surgeon General, right? And he has a military background so I imagine he's much more competent at public health than Pence.
2
And just when New Mexico thought they were going to have another banner year from the fossil fuel industry.....will they ever learn????
3
@Bella Not until we vote at least 4 DINO's out of the NM State Senate. Meanwhile, we had our shot at community solar and legalizing marijuana this year, which would've helped ween us off of fracking $$. Not surprisingly, those and similar bills died in the Senate Finance Committee. :-(
6
Trump's economic plan summed up in one laughable tweet:
Cofefe
12
Ummm, I think Trump and the GOP just lost the election.
18
There was a time when industry, manufactured goods for the home market, as a first priority and exported, as and when that consideration was taken care off. That was the ethos of both the USA and UK for many years. There were not many places in the World where goods, manufactured in these two countries, could not be found, seriously true!!! And now, we have to wait in a queue, for manufactured goods, we once made ourselves!!! That is crazy!!! I understand were President Trump is coming from, with his plans for reinvigorating US industry, and P.M. Johnson, in the UK, is of the same mind set. The present situation is brought about by a Virus, which is seriously affecting the Global Economy, would have been checked, and its effects, minimal. Economists will banda figures around, like so much chaffe. The harsh truth is that, a solid home based manufacturing industry, geared to that countries needs, gives freedom off supply, unaffected by the quarks off Nature, and out off the suppliers pocket. By the way, your point made that Mankind has about 150 years left, is of the beam. The tip over point is 2030, when the Globe takes on an Orange hue, when seen from outer space!!!
1
The President has spent the last four years engaged in demagoguery, fear mongering and pandering to his base. He has intentionally divided the country and hurled insults at everyone, including his supporters. Now we are in a real crisis and the need is for calm leadership and competent management. And he can't do it.
The plunging market reflections a world-wide lack of confidence in President Trump. Nothing else.
15
@Drew Gee that's not one of the reasons the article articulatd. DTS.
1
The rich irony is that the president's great buddy Putin put the final nail in the coffin. I was wondering when, not if, this would occur. Perhaps Donald should call his best friend and ask him "What gives? Don't you know how bad this is making me look? Help me out here." Putin's delicious response: "You're fired."
19
Ironic that Trump’s incompetence may hit his beloved fossil fuel industry the hardest.
7
Trump inherited a stable, growing economy after 8 years of President Obama walking us out of the worst economy since the ‘30s. (Which was the result of the previous Republican administration’s love of tax cuts and deficits!)
The prior administration valued sound scientific plans for public health emergencies. This president cut the funding to virtually ALL of that. Well...
Look where this Stable Genius has driven the car- right into the ditch!!
Are any of you sycophants and cultists tired of “winning” yet?
You Republicans own him, his decisions and the outcomes! Congratulations!!
40
@Smcgraw
Unfortunately we all own the outcomes, no matter how you voted. Bittersweet to be able to point the finger and say “I told you so” but it’s not worth the lives disrupted to do so. I hope we can come together and get out of this okay - tough to see that happening under Trump though.
4
If we take former Exxon Mobil CEO's assessment about Trump as a fact, I have no hope this will end a with ctatstrophic crisis .
How Republicans are succeding this is amazing.
Bill Clinton gave Bush a surpluys economy , Nope we ended up 2008 crisis.
Obama gave Trump a ever growing economy , nope we end up 2020.
What kind of Capitalism is this, Looseerrrr ?
10
@SU Actually, Democratic bailouts of a dragging economy created by Republican "leadership" is a pattern that's been going on for at least a few decades.
2
I don’t understand. Trump says this is all a concoction of the evil news media.
So we need a steady hand and good management to get out of this asap. And that’s a reason to vote for boring, old Joe Biden, someone who actually lives in this reality.
Will Republicans be the lemmings that follow Trump where we don’t want to go? So far their fear keeps them firmly attached to their Dear Leader.
6
@S. Bliss
Maybe; but will Dems elect a corp. stooge?
It will be Obama and his VP Biden all over again? Bail out the banks and corp.; socialism for the rich. Leaving the peons to suffer brutal capitalism?!
2
In November, the people need to send the message that yes, we have finally gotten tired of all this "winning."
7
Ho, mighty investors, please keep on investing.
1
--There is no way the U.S. economy avoids a big hit given the virus spread, supply & demand shocks in the global economy, an oil supply glut, growing consumer fear, and financial markets nearing 'bear territory' along with a massive loss of people's wealth & savings..
..-- But time cures all things.--
1
Let's remind ourselves, in this time of market turmoil, that lower oil prices are FANTASTIC for the vast majority of the economy. Sure, it hurts the oil/energy producers but these companies are only a fraction of the global economy. For the rest of us, lower energy costs are terrific!
2
@SalinasPhil
More sock puppet distraction.
Look over here at oil prices...while your 401K loses 20% and the boss just laid you off.
10
What the disappearance of so much value in the stock market shows is that this value was never real. It existed because we all believed in it, a belief that is supported by spin. If we all ignored facts and continued to believe, the value would persist.
Our economy, our jobs, our income streams, and our lives should be based on something more real than the present game of creating and preserving illusions. But the purveyors of spin and illusion are firmly in control, headed by a man who can do nothing else. If we wanted reality, we would start by making all financial data public so we would be able to find out what had been going on before making the data public changed everything. Unfortunately, uncovering this reality would destroy the financial aspects of our economy, and the financial tail has gotten big enough to wag the nonfinancial dog.
So we serve a reality that we ourselves made and that is now busy unmaking itself. Our problem is not that we have no other reality so much as that we are not looking for or working to develop one.
19
@sdavidc9
House of Cards!
2
Extremely low interest have in the past preceded economic recovery, as at the end of WWII, and preceding all economic recoveries.
1
@David
More sock puppet distraction.
Interest rates have been low historically for the past 10 years. And interest rates, so far, have not been found as a cure for pandemics.
1
@David
The end of WWII? What a joke. You mean when the entire rest of the world was recovering from a war?
The only factories operating in the northern hemisphere were in America. It’s how we became a world power.
Interest rates ALWAYS get lowered in a recession. Always. But they are already historically low now, so they have no where to go. Lowered interests rates cannot and will not save this economy.
This is no where near anything we’ve seen in the modern world with a globalized economy. Keep throwing your money away David.
1
Can we reverse the tax cut for the wealthy? They used our tax money from Trump's tax cut for stock buybacks, the value of which has now disintegrated. We're already subsidizing farmers and Amazon and every other corporation that no longer pays taxes.
678
@PABD Yes, we could and should, and the House would do it but the Senate won't. The wealthy and corporations will never give up their form of socialism.
87
Comparing farmers to Amazon is such a stark comparison. Many people in rural areas depend on family farms to make a living. There aren’t many options for other careers, and many view farming as carrying on a family legacy.
17
@PABD The farm bailout was $28 billion, and primarily paid to agrobusinesses and multinational corporations.
The 2008-2010 auto bailout cost $130 billion and is estimated to have saved roughly 1.5 million jobs. The TARP bailout of banks cost roughly $700 billion. The 2016 tax cuts added $100 billion to the deficit. The government did need to step in and prop these industries up, as the spill over effect would have been much more broadly felt. The bigger point I'm making is: when the government realized a sector of the economy had red lights flashing, it stepped in to resolve the issue and stabilize industry.
At the moment the next flashing red light is in the student debt sector. Current debt is roughly $1.6 trillion, expected to be $2 trillion by 2021. Nearly 1 in 5 Americans have student debt with a 10% and rising default rate. People 29-40 cite student debt as the primary reason for delaying marriage, and economists have noted a entire generation has reduced purchases of houses, cars, appliances, and furniture, as well as spending for vacations and luxury items due to student debt.
I know it may be easy to dismiss this as an individual problem, but if the economy tanks and default rates push higher, an issue that is currently resulting in a slow economy will turn into an issue that results into a crashed economy. Assisting with student loans in some form would massively stimulate all sectors of the US economy.
40
Putin just put 80 % of the fracking companies out of business . A little revenge I would say.We have been poking this bear for along time he had enough.
51
@robert conger
Are you suggesting it's time to appease a guy who's hellbent on disrupting our democratic processes? That we should lift sanctions to get oil prices up? The Saudis and Russians are in this together....and just happen to be on Trump's A list.
4
@murfie He just did what is good for Mother Russia lest you forget MAGA
1
@robert conger: It wasn't Putin; it was the Saudis. They are feuding with the Russians and are trying to put a crimp in their income. Of course, this tactic will also hurt the US extraction industry, possibly causing the loss of many jobs in both the fossil fuel industry and the firms that supply the tooling. Yeah, cheaper gas might be nice in the short run, but the longer-term consequences are much less pleasant. Beware of economic ripple effects...
1
2020 is the peak of our current economic cycle which will stay at this plateau for a few years not to reach its nadir until 2029. Anything else is manufactured information for the purpose of undermining Trump's economic successes. Time is on his side this election year, during the high point of this economic cycle, virus or no virus.
3
@Joe Gilkey what exactly are Trump's economic successes? The tax cuts--if you want to give him credit for that instead of McConnell et al-- did little for 2018 and has not paid for itself. The trade deal with China is more sound and fury than anything else, and Phase One has yet to go into effect. I'll give you the NAFTA retool, but still, economic success is maybe too positive a word even for this.
Meanwhile, trade deficits are up, hiring has plateaued, wage growth is stuck, manufacturing is slumping, the Federal deficit is over 1 trillion, exports to China are lower. C'mon.
75
@Joe Gilkey, Yes I am guilty of seeing these financial movements through the lens of my Democrat partisanship. But Mr. Irwin makes some fact-based and logical arguments, particularly regarding the implications and significance of the fall in commodity prices (especially oil). Upon what data and using which deductions do you support your argument?
1
@Joe Gilkey
Ha.. That's laughable.! You think the economy is going to stay "at this plateau"? It's already begin to sink due to virus spread (& now oil collapse), and the effects are just starting..
..-- As far as your "2029" prediction.. Well, let's just say that sounds as idiotic as your buddy Trump saying he has the virus "contained".. ---- Hey, thanks anyway...---
12
Let's hope that the economy bottoms before the November elections so that we can rid the country of the current Trump Party swamp-fest.
Widespread layoffs are coming.
5
This trump Slump is make me thirsty.
2
Perhaps, it will take an economic down turn to dump Trump.
"It's the economy stupid" idea of James Carville, 1992.
Democratic reforms may be necessary to turn the tide.
So, I hope the Democrats can win the election, this year.
"Democracy is coming to the USA" (Leonard Cohen, song)
Can the NY Times write about a new democracy wave this year?
"Democracy is coming to the USA"
1
The GOP wrecks it. The Dems repair it. The GOP takes credit. Rinse. Repeat.
23
@Lil50
Yes, that's the plan.
1
While the GOP still has the controls this will just result in more handouts to Big Business ( um, socialism? ) and more draconian treatment of the poor. Along with demonizing of said poor - and of the democrats...
You can bet on it.
VOTE 2020!
4
What about Trump's re-election why all this fuss about the economy and virus hoax when Fox State Tv is worried about the fortunes of Trump and his family . A G Barr will issue a report blaming the democrats and awarding Trump with the medal of emperor given only to dictators with the most promise to lead their countries into oblivion.
2
It's interesting that Trump's good buddies, Vladimir Putin and Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, have started an oil price war that is helping to sink the markets. Has anyone heard a peep out of Donnie about that?
15
@jas2200 Nope - and I'm beginning to think one of the reasons they did it is to decimate our oil production capabilities. I read today that if oil goes to $30 a barrel or less, many of our energy companies won't be able to sustain themselves which will bring the sector to the brink of collapse. Nice, huh?
2
Lucky for America and Americans that their President of the United States inherited 295 streams of income from his New York City real estate baron daddy that shielded him from being the worst losing businessman in America over a ten year period.
Plus Trump acted and played like he was a successful and winning businessman on reality TV.
So that the economic outlook for the Trump Organization parasites and scavengers appears to be positively bright and profitable.
2
Is this a "Big Short" by the Saudis and the Russians? Both of them need the money.
1
Trump should be going to his experts for advice. Hannity and Limbaugh. These sages can get us out of this disaster.
6
@Philip I feel better already.
1
Trump’s new slogan.
Make America Broke Again.
7
Renewable energy does not trigger such economic events as we see today.
The Time has come and smart, smart people who now invest in renewables will rule the world.
---------------------------------------------
“Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences.” Robert Lewis Stevenson.
“This is the first generation who has felt the damage from ongoing climate calamity, and we are the last generation to be able to do something about it.” Governor Jay Inslee of the State of Washington.
“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” Kenneth Boulding
6
This is a direct reflection of the confidence in Trumps “leadership”.
#DumpTrump
6
What makes this so much worse is that it is obvious by now that Trump and his ever changing band of inexperienced loyalists not only don't have the experience to address these serious issues, they don't even recognize them as such. Their only frame of reference is that everything is a political issue, a hoax or an attack on the president by the media.
Sneering isn't a response. And if they can't somehow blame the media, Hunter Biden or HRC? They've got nothing.
The idea that their pals MBS and Putin are the ones irresponsibly engaging in a oil price war at the exact wrong time doesn't seem to occur to them, let alone to do anything about it.
Sooner or later their stunning comprehensive incompetence was going to bounce up and punch us in the mouth. Today's the day.
10
In this the U.S. is revoking tariffs on masks and gowns from China. The same should happen to Chinese solar panels. If anything the installation of solar panels to replace energy reliant on burning fossil fuels should be subsidized, ditto wind. An economy based on pricing by Russia and Saudi Arabia will always be in danger. Switching to solar not only makes sense for alleviating the worst effects of climate change/global warming, which we are all-out headed for by the insanely stupid policies of the Trump administration, but it will be a long term economic stimulus, once it gets going. And the energy will be cheaper--everyone benefits--and we will no longer be subject to rigged price hikes by the oil giants.
Insanely stupid should be reason for removal from office. Why is this not happening?
3
I'm personally thrilled. For all of my soul-less acquaintances who voted for tRUMP the last time and say they will vote for him again this time, simply because in spite of his being a sociopath they like what he does for their stock portfolios, you're going to get EXACTLY what you deserve. I couldn't be happier.
19
March 9, 2019
If ever a time to think and act global is now -
What must manifest is international cooperation to avoid deepening the problem of and for civilization- to -what!!
Survive and prepared for backup plans with leadership on line and electronically to avoid disease in travels and contacts.
We just got worst - and now we know we just go better for we all will deal with faith and humanity's heart and mind to live.
2
Not wishing for more corpses but ... Fantastich. Anything is welcome that can help to reverse the Reagan redistribution of income toward to the top, and our transition from a capitalist to a feudal society. Can't make omelets without breaking eggs. Coronavirus is one thing that Trump and his cronies cannot rig. Indeed, it attacks the Trump base of 70-something know-nothings more than the rest of us.
Sorry this is in bad taste. But the only thing that will defeat Trump is Mother Nature. Our system has failed because Republican Congress-critters refuse to do their job.
10
If this gets worse, the Feds will HAVE to enact a stimulus to pay regular Americans. We will need bottom-up thinking. Don't bail out big business, but bail out Americans who will see massive lay offs, no bonuses, no raises, decline in quality of life. Time to start thinking of Universal Basic Income for all. Putting cash directly into the pockets of people is what would help the economy from tanking.
8
I recall one Trump mouth piece recently comparing the coronovirus to "a bad cold." So the know-nothing, do-nothing Trump administration will now jump in and bail out big business as retirees once again take it in the behind. I wonder if they will they need to cut those pesky entitlements in order to fund this latest giveaway?
1
A policy of Coronavirus(COVID-19) free testing, treatment and quarantine
support for everyone in the US who needs it, is a way forward that allows
effective support for effectively dealing with the coming/arrived pandemic. Perhaps with government support, via properly priced purchases for the US oil reserve we might blunt the effects of Saudi actions Just a thought
1
The news isn’t all bad.
Welcome to the new COVID-19 reality where not every transaction under the sun also first involves doing "a favour though" for Donald J Trump.
4
Our government in NZ has a PLAN to deal with this coronavirus. An economic and social plan. Our Govt is thinking of government guaranteeing loans of businesses hit by the coronavirus.
There are lots of wealthy USA residents who have citizenship in NZ so they can escape to their bolt hole they own when something like this happens. The guy who owns PayPal aint looking so paranoid afterall!
3
Wow! That was a quick turnaround from the “best economy ever!”
11
America has a much better chance of a robust recovery if in November we replace the current incompetence and golf-laden merriment with an actual administration.
6
While the Coronavirus may have been needle the pricked the ‘bubble’ the seeds of the latest stock market collapse were planted long ago. Since the 2008 financial implosion, the FED has injected >$6 trillion of ultra-cheap money, which along with Trump's 2017 tax cuts have gone to Wall St. for share buybacks, purchasing stock futures and sustain [still] insolvent banks. This money also inflated bond markets and trendy real estate in Boston, NYC, SF, Seattle, etc. As a result, equity markets have become addicted to cheap money (aka ‘monetary heroin’ as pointed out by David Stockman) from the FED and anytime there is so much as a hint of a rate increase, Wall St (& President Trump) become apoplectic. To quote Business commentator Rana Foroohar (CNN, FT)- ‘The US is in the longest economic cycle on record, with mounds of global debt, falling credit quality, and decades of low interest rates driving asset prices to unsustainable levels. … The truth is that the US economy is now dependent on asset bubbles for survival’..... This situation was the result of policy changes, stretching back decades and driven by both Democrat and Republican administrations, that have built an economy “dangerously dependent on the whims of Wall Street.” The FED continues its orgy of money printing and debt creation, ignoring the fact that economic stagnation in the global economy is a consequence of excess capacity and slack demand. All this is doing is postponing the proverbial 'day of reckoning'.
8
@Paul Well-written, Paul. First we play, now we pay.
1
Our Prime Minister in New Zealand gives the press weekly updates on what our government is doing. Does Trump do this?
Leaders are meant to lead - not be silent during a crisis.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/411297/coronavirus-response-it-is-important-to-get-the-details-right
3
@CK
I hope you realize how lucky you are to be governed by someone with a functioning brain.
2
@CK I wish these kiwis would stop needling us. It's tough to be American these days.
1
Last Friday, Kelly Ann Conway reassured viewers of CBS News that the White House had this virus contained.
I understand now what she meant. The cleaning crew must be decontaminating the White House daily.
6
Sorry, Neil. Quoting all these "authorities" is the equivalent of the weatherman telling me that if it's raining and I go outside, I'll get wet, and if the sun's shining, I won't. You do better on your own without comments from this and that "director" or "president." And please, no more quotes from the gang at the Harvard Kennedy School: a hang out for out of work politicians and their cronies.
1
Key West Florida is now fearful of both economic and health fall out. A place which prides itself on Drunks, Jerks and MAGAs.
I can't find much sympathy in a base of voters who lust for a treasonous con man. This is the Chicken Flu coming home to roost.
7
@Mixilplix What's coming to Key West is submergence.
2
This whole worldwide system of things is passing away, nothing is going to get better in it leading into the Great Tribulation and all nation/states, false religions being wiped away with the Kingdom of God taking rulership to time indefinite. Humans were never designed to rule themselves independent of God all they have done is muk up everything. You just need to look around to know what I am saying is the truth.
1
@DG: All I have to do is look around to know that what you say is absolutely false. Religion is one of the most destructive forces in the world. It causes far more harm than good. Belief in something that does not exist makes it very difficult to solve real problems.
2
@DG OK, I get it. It looks like the '08 recession/disaster was a warning. I guess we ignored it, eh?
1
Will the last person leaving North Dakota please turn off the lights.
1
When this ends up be much ado about nothing. It will be proof enough that any idiot can be President of the United States. It will be enough to re-elect the current occupant, and lead to a viable new party to emerge other than the two losers we currently have to choose from.
1
Anyone missing Obama and the highly qualified people he brought together to dig the country out of the George Bush / GOP created financial disaster of the 1990s?
14
The fall in oil prices are bad news or good news? Appreciate someone's answer.
1
@berale8
Depends how far they fall and stay low. In the hunt for higher investment returns many banks and financial instruments were relying on U.S. shale extraction industry which is very capital intensive and requires lots of loans... which might get defaulted on if oil prices stay low.
Banks which face defaults tend to stop lending money until they can figure out how many bad loans they have on their books which impacts the rest of the economy.
Many other financial shenanigans have gone on based on cheap credit which will be exposed if enough lenders get concerned about repayment and given record levels of government debt and interst rates already less than 1% Trump administration does not have the ability to enact the same bailout that Obama managed (despite heavy Republican obstruction).
The panic is more about the lack of information to make educated bets with so most people worried about unknown risk are selling despite falling prices nearly guaranteeing 2020 is a lost year for standard investments- beyond that anyone claiming it know the outcome is a shameless con. A few people betting on black swan events will become billionaires while most of the economy slows down but ultimately putters along as demand shifts onto new paths it takes a bit for supply to catchup which means people in vulnerable jobs or near retirement might be losers but other people getting into jobs in the sectors meeting the new demand and investors with patience/long timeline can win.
@berale8
Good for consumers, tolerable for Saudi Arabia, bad for russia
1
Why are politicians holding public rallies, especially trump?
9
At a time when the country needs leadership, we have the very stable genius Donald Trump. That says it all as to how well we will fare if things start crashing around us.
5
I sure hope the Fed doesn't cut interest rates to zero or below. That would make matters worse and really hurt fixed income folks, people just confronting retirement, and average Main Street savers (who don't hold million dollar + portfolios). Instead the Fed should be encouraging Congress to think about a stimulus package similar to what Obama initiated when handed the 2008 financial meltdown courtesy of the George W. Bush administration. Warren, when asked about the escalating coronavirus/economic crisis, delivered a calm, tremendously comprehensive explanation of our current situation and what the government could & should be doing. Although responding when asked that "yes" we should be worried, because of her intellectual acumen and knowledge of government structures, there was a glimmer of hope in that she could envision a path toward greater remedial action. Maddow who was conducting the interview responded by saying '..would that we had a current president that could draw all these elements clearly together.' Too bad indeed! We have an ignorant & corrupt blowhard in the White House, and a corrupt Republican dominated senate more interested in issuing subpoenas on the Bidens than governing ethically for the Common Good. Vote them out!
9
The ONLY good news in this healthcare debacle is that Individual-1 will be blamed for his incompetent response and the flailing economy will end his reign of terrors.
3
@Blank
Does everyone know who individual 1 is?
1
My advice? Get the violins out for those wall street executives. I mean tell them you have their backs! Poor babies telling the rest of us to buckle up...whatever.
However, my economy just improved! I just switched school districts and now I will be receiving a raise of more than 10k a year!
I don't go where wall street tells me to go. We give that shell game too much credit. Didn't we go through this nonsense when W was around?
Makes you go hmm... doesn't it?
2
This will be Trump’s failure. He took a roaring economy restored by President Obama and ended it his first term in office.
9
It doesn't stop there. If Russia's ONE main source of income is threatened, they will ramp up efforts to disrupt our elections, attack us even more, help the inept and corrupt DJT and the equally corrupt Republicans to stay in office so the sanctions against them get removed -- the sanctions are hurting them and with oil price war, will hurt them even more. If the world is lucky, Russia will take steps again the psychopath, MBS, but that does nothing to help our elections.
1
@Andy Russia has deep problems of its own, and Putin--though he looks popular now--is treading on thin ice. As for S. Arabia: it is WAY overdue for a revolution like the one in Iran. And that will be something to behold.
1
The cynic in me wonders whether the oil war is partly driven by the Russians and Saudis trying to cripple U.S. shale oil industry.
2
The Trump recession is looming and threatening to become the Trump depression. With the stock market crashing Trump will be no longer able to take credit for the record highs on Wall Street. But to be fair he should now take responsibility for the steep declines. His handling of the Coronavirus pandemic crisis has been abysmal and as usual totally inadequate and incompetent. At times of crisis his pettiness and vindictiveness, his name calling and political partisanship are not only inappropriate but are frankly nauseatingly unPresidential.
I hope the American people including sensible Republican voters are getting tired of his act and are yearning for real Presidential leadership.
Trump is ill suited for his job and truly is only a demagogue and con artist. For our nation’s future he and his horrible administration must be removed from office as soon as possible.
3
Who is Bernie Sanders going to tax now that trillions in wealth just vanished?
1
@Michael
Pension and retirement plans own way more of the stock market than individual investors. Most of the very wealthy are diversified so that they can benefit whichever way the economy moves- normal people with far less money to allocate are going to be the main losers as their pensions evaporate.
25% of the stock market is owned by foreigners (mostly companies or sovereign wealth funds)
25% is owned by individual investors.
The remaining 50% is various types of retirement plans.
1
@Michael Guess who.
1
Putin was simply waiting for the right moment to attack the American economy. Trump had imagined that he had some kind of "special" relationship with Moscow. Putin just reminded him of who is the actual adult on the world stage.
2
Lucky for trump he can blame this on the virus. The real truth is trump is a liar. The gains in the market had little to do with trump. And the market has been overdue for a correction and earnings for 2020 were already adjusted downward before the virus.
And add to the fact oil prices has plunged which hurts the stock market but the average Joe can fill up their car much cheaper and energy for production will go down driving down the costs of products for the consumer.
However since trump took credit for the market increasing he has to take the blame for it going down.
Presidents really don't control the stock market this is why Obama didn't go around boasting that the market almost tripled under him. The stock market hasn't tripled under trump.
4
The effects of this would be much less if we had begun investing in alternate energy and the professions it generates. Just a bit of oil profits, starting in the 80's. when we knew it was obvious. New industries need investment to be created and help to grow.
And to all those oil folks who shriek at the word 'subsidy' let's remember how the oil industry has been helped by lobbying, by graft, by all sorts of assistance up to and including war. Or was the invasion of Iraq for 'freedom and democracy? Let's ask Dick Cheney and George Bush. On second thought, don't bother.
2
Wait...
As I understood it from Fox "news", the Very Stable Genius in the People's White House was going to magically save us from all of these nasty things.
Just last week trump claimed, via Larry Kudlow that private industry will solve the public health crisis. If not, gosh, we've got tons of tax payer money to throw at it, right?
But most non-republican experts say the administration’s $8.6 billion package, used to bolster hospitals and healthcare workers, is little more than a drop in the bucket compared to what will ultimately be needed.
Then of course, there's oil. Russia is trying to slap Saudi Arabia around in a short sighted attempt to steal market share, Saudi's of course, reciprocate.
Where is that "very stable genius" who said he could just "win" at anything and Keep America Safe"??
5
Things look very ugly in the stock market right now- but for the past 80 years, since WWII, it has always bounced back from 19% drops or less within 6 months.
If it has dropped more than 20%, it has typically taken 2-4 years to recover.
Everything is temporary, and change is the only constant.
4
@mainesummers Thanks for that. I feel so much better now.
1
The Trump Administration was unready for an infectious epidemic. They have been cutting public health preparedness for 3+ years and the chickens are now home to roost. Donald Trump and his band of Luddite followers aren't followers of science or history and this is the price we pay- crashing markets and spreading death and disease. Covid-19 is now a permanent feature of our world. There are others at fault, most notably the Chinese with their lack of food hygiene, but the U.S. was unprepared due to our own unready leadership.
5
The blind men and the elephant. from wiki
"Each blind man feels a different part of the elephant's body, but only one part, such as the side or the tusk. They then describe the elephant based on their limited experience and their descriptions of the elephant are different from each other. In some versions, they come to suspect that the other person is dishonest and they come to blows. The moral of the parable is that humans have a tendency to claim absolute truth based on their limited, subjective experience as they ignore other people's limited, subjective experiences which may be equally true."
2
Things wouldn't be so bad if Trump and the Republican party hadn't overinflated the money with irresponsible government spending on tax cuts. They inflated the deficit and now have nothing to show for it and things will only get worse.
The Republican party is the very definition of fiscal irresponsibility.
6
So, there was Roosevelt talking to the country via radio laying out what happened and how his government was going to proceed. Now, here’s Trump living in fantasyland, arguing with his “advisors” over what to tell the public. The sooner we dump this crowd, the better!
2
What I don't understand is the international dynamics of this. Apparently Putin and MBS had a standoff with Putin refusing to limit oil extraction to provide some stability due to challenges presented by the coronavirus epidemic. What does Putin gain from this other than disruption of the West (no doubt his primary goal) but Russia will be terribly hurt by the declining price of oil. How about MBS. What does he gain from this (other than acting like a big bad man of the ME)? Perhaps market share.
Now to the interesting part. How come these 2 individuals, who have a "special" relationship with Trump and his family, decide to destabilize the US this way, especially seeing as it would be disastrous for Trump himself? And even better, how come Trump and Kushner can't talk their way out of this mess since they have these 2 people's ears?
Apparently Putin got stubborn because he didn't like the sanctions the Trump administration placed on Rosneft because of Putin's embrace of Venezuela's Maduro. Just Deserts.
2
It was bound to happen: reality intruded on Trump's reality TV show.
4
If I were in Mr. Biden or Mr. Saunders shoes I would go on all media networks this evening and ask a simple question from Mr. Trump and Mr. Pompeo: which US policies have given a bunch of criminals heading Saudi Arabia - a country that relies on the US for everything, including its security - a free hand at putting the US economy and national security at risk?
Has Saudi Arabia consulted the US before reducing the oil price by 30%? If they did and Trump did not try to stop them, it should tell everyone how incompetent the Trump administration is in managing the US economy. If they did not, it should indicate how little respect the leadership of Saudi Arabia has for Trump and Pompeo.
4
"In other words, avoiding some of the more dismal possibilities might take some mix of luck and a strong public policy response." Given both the incompetence and "don't contradict or do anything to upset Dear Leader" mentality of this administration, this line doesn't give one much room for optimism.
1
A question for historians: has a Republican president ever had to clean up the mess made by a Democratic president? Obama had to deal with W’s mess and the new president will have to deal with Rump’s. FDR inherited Hoover’s mess. Other examples?
1
While the 1% have been busy endorsing Joe Biden or clamoring for the re-election of Donald Trump, the Coronavirus is spreading in the population. Another thing that is spreading is panic because it is clear that policy makers are not prepared for a disruption of this kind.
Many activities that support normal economic functioning are shutting down to limit the spread of the virus. This is shutting down revenue sources to businesses and will soon lead to layoffs. The precarious state of working and middle class household finances will soon translate that into defaults on consumer debt or worse.
So far, the response has been interest rate cuts and proposals that banks offer loan their customers at their normal usurious interest rates. This is a pitiful response to a growing economic meltdown.
Washington DC is asleep are the wheel as this economic panic spreads and threatens to undermine people’s day-to-day finances and their retirement accounts. Meanwhile, we have article after article about what a threat Bernie Sanders is and how Medicare For All won’t pass and won’t work anyway. Is anyone in this aristocracy watching the unfolding of an economic crisis that the rest of the population is already sensing?
1
It can't possibly help that before either the virus or the oil price war hit the fan, we were running a trillion dollar deficit and had historically low interest rates. Trump's people were already cooking the books for the election, leaving us with few tools to fight an actual disaster.
4
If there is a silver lining in this, we could take advantage of low interest rates to finally invest in infrastructure. Of course we need to get rid of the Stable Genius and Senate Republicans first. They have done zero in 4 years other than pass a tax cut for the rich.
4
@Robert kennedy You missed something, Bobbie. Building the wall WAS their infrastructure plan.
1
Of course out government won’t consider the most effective stimulus: putting money in the hands of ordinary folks who will spend it.
3
You'd think these recent events would finally send the dual signals that:
A. Our economy is too tangled up and intermingled with China.
B. Our economy is too dependent on oil.
Of course, if you listen to the people in power and the people who have a platform, you scarcely hear those signals. As always, follow the money.
It will all make for fascinating reading when some future Edward Gibbon writes about the decline and fall of our civilization. Provided what comes after our civilization is still capable of producing a future Edward Gibbon.
2
Brother, can you spare a dime? We had a bubble built on the remains of the 2007-2009 crisis. It is popping now. This will not be good.
2
I really wish i was like Isaac Newton, who stayed home during a plague and invented calculus, changing life on Earth forever (the calculus allowed so much science to progress). But instead, mmm, i may do some reading, play some XBox, and in the summer watch, on teevee, the Olympics played out in empty stadiums.
People (me, also) should get a new indoor hobby (saxophone? wood carving?) in case the Wuhan virus mutates and gets really bad, eh.
2
Low Oil Prices will crush Putin's economy it is pretty much all Russia has oil and other recession sensitive resources. How Russia (Putin) reacts could be troublesome in the next year.
1
A crash has been baked in for some time.
The FEDs easy money regime for years has allowed big players to borrow at low rates and buy stocks. These wiseguys — hedge funds and private equity funds — dominate the market and typically put down just $1 or $2 of their investors’ money for every $10 worth of the securities they purchase. Leverage is a WMD.
As security prices fall the firm that lent the money for the original trade, or took the other side of the derivative contract, has the right to demand additional cash. The only way to get that cash is to sell something. And in that way, selling begets more selling and we see a cascading market free-fall.
That's bad enough, but the icing on the cake now was Trump's tax cuts which pumped $1T into the hands of people whose only avenue to employ all that 'free' money was to buy up houses or throw it at the stock market. Thus the "FAANG" stocks climb to the moon, defying gravity, defying sound investing.
We have bubbles in housing and stock markets. It will end like 2008.
NOTA BENE: Tax cuts for upper brackets preceded the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Great What's Coming Next.
3
I don’t mean to pile on, but understand that an extended recession means significantly lower government tax receipts, as people and companies feeling the crunch will have much lower (if any) taxable incomes. Combine that with a fiscal stimulus (increased government spending) the dollar starts to feel like Monopoly money.
If you think the trillion dollar yearly deficit that resulted from the Trump tax cuts is unconscionable, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
4
The trump administration is truncating data on the CDC page. Updates once a day and data given through Mon to Fri. only. The economy is not theonly aspect of the US that just got worse.
Anything to make certain his election is moving along nicely.
And, regarding election. Maybe absentee ballots are more useful now. Why stand in line when you are not certain about those around you.
2
The economy outlook just got complex. Too complex to predict and still we continue to predict as though we have a reliable crystal ball in front of us. I think Corona panic has done as much damage as it could and has awakened the sleeping giant, humanity. What else is happening that is going to be more consequential to the economy and the stock market and more importantly how long the economy will keep tanking and what impact it will have on jobs.
Business is not going to be as usual for sure. More and more people who can work from home will be allowed to do so. Democrats need to stop worrying about Bernie becoming the nominee of the Dems or whether Biden could become the nominee after receiving several props. At least 20% of Americans are likely to definitely not vote for Trump in November under any circumstances but are probably going to be unable to cope with his win if he is reelected. The uncertainties of life are going to continue to cause anxiety levels to go higher than ever. Our lifestyles need to change in order to recover from panic, anxiety and a feeling that things are out of control, keep an open mind
First and foremost we have to appreciate what you have and not worry about what was lost in recent days. The easiest way forward is to spend more time with family and friends. Next remember health is wealth and pay more attention to having a healthy mind in a healthy body. Value whats inside such as your lungs, heart, liver etc. Get fresh air free of Corona.
3
It must be time for a tax cut wouldn’t you say? That seems to be the cure for everything. It is going to be very strong and beautiful. Believe me.
“A massive fiscal stimulus would be huge at this point.”
No! For once, why don't we just see if capitalism can take care of itself as the 1% have been screaming when the going is good.
1
Don't let a crisis go to waste. Just gave a 2.5 trillion tax cut to business and most people got a $1 pay raise. Now Trump says we're doing sooo good that SS and medicare cuts are feasible. This next stimulus pkg for the middle class. This just to keep food on the table. The GOP will want to cut food stamps to offset this new spending. Yep, we are in that world. Trump is telling the seniors to trust him. That this virus will be short lived. That could be their angst.
2
Time for trump and Pelosi to bury the hatchet and come together to legislate a massive infrastructure plan. Interest rates are low, jobs created would put upward pressure on take home pay, it’s a greatly needed investment, and would demonstrate that our government can do something. If you give folks tax cuts what are they going to do, jump on a plane and fly to Disneyland? Just one more fact one needs to contemplate, the trump bailout for farmers is twice as large as Obama’s auto bailout, how many industries will trump eventually need to bail out?
1
Amidst all of these reports about the financial markets and the state of fear in the US - indeed, worldwide - about the coronavirus, I read nothing regarding the president meeting with his economic and health advisors, nothing of a news conference to come today or early tomorrow in which the president or the vice-president will provide a candid overview of the state of the epidemic, the market panic, conversations that the president might have had with leaders in Russia and Saudi Arabia and the administration's plans for managing this near-crisis forward. This is incompetence, pure and simple, and we cannot at this point believe that this situation will get any better because of actions taken by President Trump and Vice President Pence.
Donald Trump declares himself to be a great business leader. He supposedly is a close confidant of the Russian President and the Saudi Crown Prince. Yet he acts as if the actions of those two countries and the remainder of the market and public reaction at this time is the product of the fake news media. What data does he have about the virus, the state of testing and required supplies and how will we react when widespread testing confirms more cases? What are the priorities and related timelines for appropriately spending the $8.3B Congress just handed the administration to deal with the crisis?
In short, how is this crisis being managed, and when will the people have thorough and multi-part answers from the Oval Office?
1
When corrupts rule the nations who are more fixated in skyrocketing the market indexes with rock bottom interest rates,mainstream hard working citizens citizens never wins who live upon paychecks. Real estate prices skyrockets,buying a house for many just remains the dream as prices goes up and construction material prices goes beyond the roof before a new house comes into markets.
This a vicious game played by corporate world and their stooge in power for their continued uninterrupted pocket interests and amassing wealth while leaving behind masses broken for cheap labor. Corona is just an excuse to gutter down the markets and than buy back for next bubble play.
1
Those numbers strongly suggest the Fed will have to keep rates near zero — or conceivably below zero at some point — for a very long time.
The Fed never lowered the rate to zero during the Great Recession under (R) President George W. Bush. Why would the Fed lower it to near zero - "conceivably below zero at some point". Was that not exactly what Trump demanded a couple of months ago?
I am in my sixties and never have a seen a more outrageous idea; to lower the rates below zero. This is truly panicked, irrational talk that does nothing but create even more panic than what we already feel.
This is what uncertainty does. It is what incompetence brings. It is why the Trump administration should have instituted rapid, intensive COVID-19 testing, rather than blocking it. How much longer do we have to wait to even measure the scope of the problem??
1
loving how liberals wanted everyone to credit Obama with the "good" economy and now playing hot potato to blame trump for the bad one. fact is that the economy was only working for a minority based on speculation and financial games. most of tech is almost entirely inflated value based on speculation, carried through years of unprofitable operations on venture capital. this paper itself based its rosy headlines on stock market volumes and job reports neglecting, perhaps willfully, to dig any deeper. now the warning signs are obvious and the economic forecast dim. what a difference a few weeks makes. it would be nice to say that all the economic skeptics that were shouted down and ridiculed over the past few years will get their day but we all know they wont. the fact that our economy seems built on the assumption that nothing bad will ever happen seems short sighted if not insane.
1
The stock market is not the economy. The Covid-19 epidemic is a timely reality check that the stock market was significantly over valued. Yes there will be some economic slow down as consumers simply stay home and as the supply chain is disrupted. But hey, hand sanitizer is selling like crazy!
1
"Then over the weekend, Russia and Saudi Arabia began an oil price war that sent the price of crude to its biggest plunge in three decades — which could cause widespread bankruptcies in the American energy industry."
Remind me again of how men are more rational, better decision-makers and leaders than women. This smacks of the behavior exhibited by males in wildlife documentaries.
1
The outlook for the economy never looked better: science & technology; energy independence; lower taxes; domestic manufacturing; wages and jobs; trade, inflation, military strength; banking health; corporate savings; venture capital; women's advancement. Sorry: you'll have to discredit the current administration some other way, while getting ready to lose 2020--and 2024, and the House and Senate, and judiciary. The DNC is the walking dead.
1
Trump's tax cuts for the rich created huge Federal deficits and as a result the government has little room to stimulate our over stimulated economy. And on top of this Trump has pressured the Fed to keep interest rates low and they too have little room to help fight a recession even if in this case their actions would have any affects at all as this threat is do to companies contracting due to an external threat.
Trump for the past three years has wanted his economy to look artificially rosy, but when the chips are down it was all a house of cards which may bring down his presidency.
1
You probably don't want to hear this but there will come a time when Mr. Trump will become a distant painful memory. Sanity, ethics, integrity, honor and patriotism will make a resurgence!
Most of us will survive the coronavirus, the markets will stabilize and become viable again, people will be able to watch the news in the morning while sipping their coffee (not to be confused with covfefe) and there will be no mention of the conman who used to dominate everything!
Vote him out in November
1
Clinton: huge surplus; Bush: gives it away to the rich, then creates a financial collapse; Obama: restores the economy, puts safeguards in place; Trump: creates record debt through tax giveaways to the rich, guts laws, undercuts any ability to respond to viruses or economic collapse. See a pattern yet? Please vote.
1
I don't think people are as afraid of Covid-19 as they are of individuals incorrectly managing and assessing the virus and the economy. (Did you hear that Kudlow interview by Jonathan Ferro exposing Kudlow's inability to speak to anything but his prepared talking points?) How quickly we forget about the tax cuts for the wealthy, the tariffs and the payoffs to the farmers. With the ridiculously elevated equities, inflexible lowered interest rates, a compromised constitutional and legal system, Saudi and Russian oil price conflict, and an incompetent commander in chief, no one should be too surprised about the market sinking and the economy, too, joining the darkened outlook.
1
We ALL, EVERYONE OF US are paying for the REALLY REALLY REALLY BAD decisions. After giving billions away in tax breaks to Trumps wealthy donors and pals we don’t have enough money left to deal with this pandemic crisis properly. It’s going to take lots of money, billions and all the resources we can muster to deal with this deadly CoVID virus.
We need to demand a “Claw-Back” of all those billions of dollars that were given away needlessly just to grease the palms of the wealthy.
1
Hi Mr. Irwin
The economy "reconfigured" for a lot of us long before March 2020. Jobs (yes, plural for many of us) don't pay enough. Rent is too high. Student loans!!! Oh, so the stock market goes down for a couple of weeks (after a huge run-up) and suddenly this broken economy captures the attention of people who have been doing fine (and probably still are doing fine).
1
Trump has a history of playing brinksmanship with his companies. His raft of bankruptcies, lawsuits and stiffed vendors far exceed anything a "good" businessman would ever commit or tolerate, as evidenced by the banks that refused to do business with him. Unfortunately for him, and more critically the country, these circumstances demand something that he has never delivered; a sound, constructive solution to a real and urgent national crisis. He squeezed the Fed to waste its tools in order to supercharge an already healthy economy. Can we please return control of the government to someone who actually knows what they are doing?
1
Trump has overspent to boost the economy and the US debt is a breathtaking trillion dollars (a thousand billion) and he wouldn't think for a second about increasing taxes on his .1% friends. Businesses have borrowed hugely under Trump and the virus impact will hit service industries worse - almost 80% of the economy. Stocking up on toilet paper doesn't seem like a bad idea.
1
It is always fascinating to me how economists - when faced with an anomaly they can’t explain, as was the case with the economy over the last few years - start to decide the old rules don’t apply and we are somehow in new territory. Right when they start saying that, you just know they’ve drank the Kool Aid, too, rather than face the fact that rich people, business leaders, bankers, and the rest of their colleagues are all just enjoying a collective delusion about the strength of the economy. Invariably a crash is coming.
1
Since he took such extensive credit for the market rise, will trump take equal credit for its dramatic decline?
5
The corona virus is a black swan event, but is pointing out several fundamental economic issues.
First, even with the recent market selloff, the market is trading at historically high multiples.
Second, the Fed is out of weapons - the Federal Funds rate is 1.75, the 10 year is 0.52% - rates are rock bottom and going lower won’t juice the economy. Monetary policy will have to give way to fiscal stimulus.
Third, I believe we will see a widening spread between corporate debt yields and the 10 year - the spreads are up over 50 bp in the past two weeks.
That, with the backdrop of political uncertainty, is a favored condition for a selloff.
1
@Mark Arizmendi All of this news and events means that there is 99.9% a recession. We may be in it right now.
1
The shale oil patch is a massive debt bubble about to pop if oil prices stay this low for too long. My question is what other collateral damage will result from the popping sound.
10
The economy has been a mess for several years and kept up on borrowed money with most of that going to the top 1%, especially in the last three years. This has boosted the stock market and housing prices (in many areas) without inflation because most people don't have real jobs and no real increase in pay. It was obvious this was coming so it was prudent to get out of the markets some while back.
11
Here are my thoughts from someone who is not a financial guru:
An economy like the USA's cannot do well on the long run if it is based solely on consumer spending.
If interest rates would have been kept at 5-7 per cent over the past 20 years, our world economy could have easily weathered this current financial "perfect storm"
Having all the world's manufactured goods by one country makes the world economy extremely vulnerable.
The clout of large multinational corporations that are solely concerned with profits is a detriment to the well being of every person on this planet.
The current state of our huge population and physical environment is unsustainable and needs drastic measures to counter the effects.
The prophesy by Steven Hawking that mankind has 150 years left on this planet is further enhanced by the present situation.
40
@Gabor
What basis for the economy other than consumer spending do you think should sustain the economy? Are you considering the WWII economy where most economic activity was based on armaments?
1
@5barris We have that anyway. Look at the military budget and compare it as a percentage of the GDP. It is close to WW-2 levels.
2
@5barris What has changed? That and the health care industry comprising 14% of the economy sum it all up.
1
Macroeconomic Scenario: The epidemic continues to increase worldwide. The production shock may extend until 2Q20, affecting systemic sectors, and causing credit risks for corporations to emerge. If the impacts on the capital markets persist in 2Q20, the tightening could worsen the breach of corporate confidence, generating less investment and cuts in the hiring of employees.
2
The US economy was doing exceptionally well two weeks ago, with a huge jobs increase in February, and will continue to grow once the coronavirus threat has passed.
The decline in oil prices is good for the US economy, and its negative impacts will be highly localized. The market is over-reacting to oil price decline. The decline in commodity prices is temporary. We may well have a recession, but it’s likely to be short and shallow, as the economy and job markets are fundamentally sound.
5
@RSSF
Oil drops because production drops. In China chiefly. That means what for the US? That manufacturing will magically spring up here within the year? That some imaginary US plants will make all the stuff in Walmart and Apple and Samsung will just start making devices in Cleveland? That it will be cheaper for us to fill our cars and then do what? If retail supply is down then retail consumption is down.
Please.
6
Part of the 200k thousand plus jobs you refer are to some degree part time work tied to those picked up by companies like HR Block for the upcoming tax season. The affect of layoffs will show up in May's numbers, offset by any new hires and that's the if factor.
1
Oil down because of slowdown in arrival travel from corona scare.
While some of the reasons for the market drop are oil and Coronavirus, let's not forget the additional Trump factor. We have no confidence in what he or his administration say and it is most likely that they are lying again. That lack of confidence contributes to insecurity and a drop in markets. It is a confluence of bad consequences, at least two of which were and are controllable.
35
@Paul Raffeld Trump has been lying and mismanaging for 3 years now. That's an aggravating factor, but not a cause if this market drop. It's primary impact will be to demoralize business that anything sane will be done in the government sector to tackle this and it's now everyone for themselves in how to recover.
This looks like a good time for an infrastructure bill. Maybe not the uber bill that we need but at least some infrastructure spending that's desperately needed in places. In an election year, you really don't want the GOP taking credit for it so the likelihood of getting something done seems distant.
18
The conclusion of the author, that low commodity prices are slowing the economy is misleading. The two are relsted, but no one proved this cause and effect claim. It could well be the opposite: a slowing economy causes slowing demand, which in turn decreases the prices. Add the political aspects between Russia and the Saudis and you have the reason.
4
@Peter Pan It all depends on your time horizon. Once the economy sloughs off cheap commodities, its capacity to produce more might dwindle thereby causing prices to rise again.
1
We have had good times for a number of years and we should have been paying off Federal government debt during that time. No, the powers that be decided to give large tax cuts to the rich and corporations who didn't need it. Now we are facing a national crisis with a trillion dollar budget defect. The GOP is responsible for the situation we are in now, please, please remember this on election day and not the flag burning red herring issues they will try to feed us.
99
With interest rates this low, we can afford to print money and pay off some of the debt without risking inflation. This is not to say deficits don’t matter, but that is not causing anything crazy to happen right now.
1
@RSSF By 2029 the INTEREST on the debt is projected to be a trillion dollars. Despite what Dick Cheney said, deficits do matter.
2
Let me just reiterate what you are saying: THE GOP IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE POSITION ARE IN.
I couldn’t have said it better. Thanks.
3
Maybe the experts need to temper what is considered a good market. Poor dealings with mortgages hurt an economy for the better part of a decade and now a virus has corrected gains made in the economy for years. Very precarious is the state of this economy that’s been touted for the entirety of Trump’s tenure.
12
Oil is a trade, not an investment, and today is a good day for good bet that Crude at $30bbl - while it may not be the bottom yet - is pretty sure to be brought back to near double by the temporarily disorganized international socialist conspiracy that fixes its price. On that spec, it's a buy and I did.
4
@J111111
Me too!
If I'm reading this right...what you are saying is that this move by OPEC and the Russians is going to FORCE a long overdue market correction.
Cheap oil means no more oil price gouging. Which means bad investments get called. Which means risk corrections. Which means less approved borrowing. Which means lower interest rates to try to get people to borrow money.
MIGHT this be enough to get banks to start selling what property is WORTH rather than what they could get away with?
MIGHT we finally be headed toward a real estate price crash so severe that I can finally afford to buy a house that isn't in a ghost town or the boonies?
That would be nice. But somehow I doubt it. Politicians have a way of bailing out billionaires rather than letting markets correct themselves.
And I doubt a "stimulus" package will be a check written to yours truly. More like another "tax cut" for the rich or a "bailout" to some oil baron billionaire.
38
@Darin
"MIGHT we finally be headed toward a real estate price crash so severe that I can finally afford to buy a house that isn't in a ghost town or the boonies? "
If that happens, the 2007 recession will look like the roaring 20's.
5
@Darin If housing costs crash, as you seem to hope for, a whole lot of boomers are going to see their retirement plans crash as well.
1
@Darin
Airlines, cruise lines, hoteliers . . . They're already lined up at the trough salivating for their bailout.
2
" an economic expansion that would reach its 11th anniversary this summer is in danger of a premature end"
I believe it was near it's end anyway. National debt to the tune of what we have now is unsustainable and it will be going higher while the bulk of our population continues to struggle, social safety nets are cut along with national programs we all rely on but only miss until they are needed. The Fed has used up all the options it had already to keep the bubble going and we still don't have national plans to repair existing infrastructure or to plan for future economy and jobs.
This is just becoming more evident because of the current international health crisis.
On top of all we face I don't believe any organization has a real handle or number on what is actually going on. China is huge and nobody is ever sure if what they say is factual and here we've had the budgets of or national health and social organizations cut and replaced with propaganda.
The positive thing if any is that maybe those who have been fine with wearing blinders the last 3 years will begin to look around and take note of what has happened is not so great.
38
Mr. Irwin and I must have similar backgrounds. He thinks the same way I do. Stocks are not a leading indicator. Stocks are reactionary. Even bonds are only somewhat reliable. Commodities though? Energy in particular. That's a horse of a different color. Energy is our leading indicator.
Think about every object which surrounds you. Every single item relies on energy either directly or indirectly. Most commonly oil but any energy is the same difference. Companies who produce and consume goods rely on energy in order to produce and consume goods.
These companies make predictions about how much energy they are going to consume and when. Oil hedging essentially. You're betting on whether prices will go up or down. When oil futures start to dive, that means companies plan to produce less in the near future. Lower production means fewer jobs which means less consumption. Production equals consumption.
My money is still on July. That's when we'll see the contraction really take hold. Where things go from there is unknown. The virus is disruptive but mostly uncertain. Oil though tells us things are slowing down. It's the equivalent of venting steam on a steamship. You haven't stopped yet but you plan on stopping soon.
20
This doesn’t even take into account sovereign defaults (imagine Italy defaulting on its debt. Then others) and the devastating effects of credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) kicking in just like 2008. So this is just one more thing added to the mix. On top of unemployment becoming magnified in the months to come.
15
In the 08 crisis Bush/Obama opted for a top down stimulus rather than bottom up (save the banks rather than homeowners) and in hindsight that seems wrong-headed. It was a slower recovery than it needed to be, and had huge political implications that fueled the wealth gap and arguably contributed to the anti-elite populist fervor that gave us Trump.
Here is hoping that economic advisors this time around explore bottom-up stimulus ideas. Triple the EITC, forgive college debt - there are plenty of options other than giving banks more money and hoping they will not hoard the cash this time around.
60
@Jared
I think the first steps would be to step in to fill the deficits state and local government experience - keep teachers, firefighters, cops and highway workers from being laid off. That's the definition of "shovel ready."
Then guarantee that every person who is laid off from work will be immediately eligible for Medicaid. As part of this program, shift Medicaid to 100% federal funding (see state deficit comment above).
29
@Cfiverson In my state THERE IS NO DEFICIT. I got a check back from my state government along with a note that excess tax revenues MUST be returned to tax payers were state law.
I got HALF of last years taxes refunded due to them having TOO MUCH MONEY.
1
@Jared
Under Obama states did get direct funding through ARRA, which helped float local governments and schools.Unemployment and SNAP benefits were extended several times to shore up buying power. Mitch McConnell and his gang blocked more intensive efforts and were successful because "progressives" didn't bother to show up in the 2010 off year election, handing the House to the Rs. If progressives want real change, they have to vote in each election at each level of government, just like rightists do.
18
“A massive fiscal stimulus would be huge at this point.” That is no longer available because this administration has already used massive fiscal stimulus of more than a trillion dollars of tax deficit during an already well-growing economy. The well is dry and Republicans are well-known for opposing bailouts of otherwise successful industries in a crisis (1929...2008).
70
@sterileneutrino "But this time it is different." They will always help out a Republican administration so that they can keep their hands in the cookie jar.
1
@sterileneutrino
You are politically naive if you believe the Republicans, or corporate Democrats, won’t break the bank to shovel money into corporate coffers during this crisis. Republicans will bailout their favorite industries and allies, and stiff those of the blue states, and they will not bat an eye about it. They know that they will lose power if they can’t hold this together.
2
All those financial "gamblers" who bought oil futures and stock market futures on margin are having to sell other assets to meet those margin calls. And so the markets drop further. The chickens are finally come home to roost and the little guys suffer along with them.
18
@Maggie
"The chickens are finally come home to roost and the little guys suffer along with them."
Maybe the little guys are little because they think the stock market only goes in one direction.
The economy just got worse because the Trump fan shareholders are losing confidence in the confidence man, the Chosen One.
Chaos is great for looting the economy, but not for making it stable and predictable. They thought they could have chaos and stability too.
The big numbers like the employment rate, GDP growth (already anemic compared to the 1960s and 70s) and the DOW looked good, but they were hiding important details, like the suffering of working people.
If the fundamentals of the economy were "sound," life expectancy wouldn't be falling, the climate wouldn't be changing, and the Constitution wouldn't be in crisis.
You may claim that healthcare, the environment, and the Constitution are not related, but they are all part of the same political-economy. Everything effects everything else.
You can't create an economic system that only cares about making shareholders richer, then expect everyone else to do well also. You can't give all power to the most greedy, then expect them to make decisions that make the world a better place.
The Right calls our government their "enemy," and want to "drown it in a bathtub." They reject the principles, ratified in the Constitution by left leaning super-majorities, that make every citizen politically equal, that puts the General welfare (everyone's well being) above the whims of billionaire shareholders, that say Justice is critical even if it is expensive, etc.
Centrists keep compromising the principles that made us prosper.
108
@McGloin The Right follows the playbook set by the Italian fascists of the mid-20th century. A perfect melding of business and government. A corporation, such as General Electric, writes a tax law, sends it to congress, it gets passed. This has been going on since Reagan, at least, and not just for tax laws.
2
@McGloin mcLoin , you guys need Bernie or stay home.
@McGloin All those GDP, UI numbers are not real, they are fake.
On the bright side, now is a great opportunity for tax loss harvesting. Sell your S&P 500 ETF for a loss and buy a Large Cap ETF. The holdings are nearly identical, but the separate tickers means the IRS views this as selling 1 security for a loss and buying a completely new one.
Not applicable to 401Ks or IRAs since those accounts are tax sheltered, but if you have taxable accounts can create some deductions for the next few years of taxes.
8
@James
Beware free financial advice, given on the internet, from people one does not know.
@James
Why are you giving financial advice for free?
Looks suspicious to me.
They should have shut down flying to China when they knew but they were scared of loosing money. Now the real money loss begins.
15
The inverted yield curve is looking correct yet again.
25
To all the people who think Trump can’t manage this crisis, just remember that his uncle went to MIT and was a genius. Checkmate boys and girls.
56
@Purota Master I went to MIT and bought some ice cream. Perhaps I should be in charge.
6
@Purota Master But it was his uncle, no him. Your logic does not consider genetic abnormalities that appear to be Donald. Good try though but no cigar.
3
@Purota Master
Are you being snarky?
Or are you really saying that Trump can manage this crisis because maybe his uncle could have?
1
the political ambulance chasers are out in force today.
1
Yay! The Dow is approaching 20,000! Oh wait, wrong direction....
32
Even when the economy was good under Obama it was shunned by Republicans. Now when the Coronavirus shows up its Obama's fault.
56
@Eraven
If Trump stepped on a rusty nail his minions would line up to blame Obama.
President Obama made the brilliant observation: it used to be if you got caught lying you would be sad for a moment then come clean. Now many people respond to getting caught lying by just lying more.
The latter "works" when the stakes are low and no one really cares. On a national or global stage it will get old fast and the truth tellers do not quit.
2
Why wouldn't lower oil prices function as a counterweight? Lower oil prices make all kinds of other things more profitable.
2
@Robert David South Lower oil prices put hundreds of thousands of workers on the street. Not to mention defaults on oil company debts. The break even on fracked oil is between 40 and 50 dollars a barrel.
18
@Robert David South less revenue for oil dependent economies, less production of marginal sources fewer jobs in Texas and North Dakota and layoff in fracking regions. It is a mixed bag. Since low prices are often a sign of a more troubled world economy no one benefits.
14
@Robert David South i don't feel sorry if this industry has to suffer a little if it means the average Joe can save money at the pump to go out and actually buy products that will cost less because the cost of energy to produce those goods go down.
Taxpayers have given tax break and welfare to the oil companies for decades.
Let the free market work leave them alone.
6
Florida's Marco Rubio is tweeting bible verses instead of information.
46
@shamtha
He must be in the market over his head.
2
@shamtha
Has Marco started using Revelations yet?
2
@shamtha Well, I suppose when you have no real "thoughts", all that remains are "prayers".
2
We are seeing the beginnings of the Trump recession materialize. It really isn't all that surprising.
Trump gave huge tax breaks to his Billionaire donors, pushed the Fed to reduce interest rates, and pushed the deficit well past 1,000,000,000,000 dollars - All in what was described as a "booming" economy.
Why didn't trump invest in infrastructure, or emerging technology, or alternative energies ? Because, he needed to pay off his donors with huge tax breaks. Huge mistake, and now we are going to pay the price.
503
@S B the tax cut was weighted very favorable for the real estate industry.
7
@S B WE are going to pay the price! THEY have made their money!
5
Trump . . . AND the Republican Senators, led by Mitch McConnell. . . all pushed strongly at the last minute to pass the tax cut bill in December 2017. Their big donors, like the Mercers and the De Vos family, said they’d stop making political contributions if Trump and the Republican Congress didn’t pass a tax bill lavishing more obscene riches on such families.
11
The precipitous drop in oil prices coupled with the disruptive impact of the coronavirus on a host of business segments may well lead to long term slow down in the U.S. economy. The administration's tremendous bungled messaging and testing for the virus may well lead to Trump's defeat in November. That is a perfect example of Karma.
46
Thanks Dennis, well-said. And watch for the ramp up in blame-casting and shameless demagoguery by the Republicans, who now exist only to trumpet a message of hate and class division. It will gain angry votes but presidential elections are won by vision and optimism, not by spite and malice.
@Dennis W I'd say cause and effect. Don't believe in karma.
@Ilene Bilenky Karma= 'the sum of a person's actions in this and previous states of existence, viewed as deciding their fate in future existences' I think it fits. Best, Dennis
Janet Yellen waited at least two years too long to start raising interest rates, the party caused by falling unemployment was too great to leave, and now the Fed has almost no ammunition.
While the Fed is exactly the wrong tool to fight a virus (the Fed tools bring people into the workforce, medical isolation has them stay home), the Fed has the right tools to recover from the virus.
By setting growth and unemployment targets that are not sustainable in the long run, the market becomes more unstable and has wider swings. The converse is that by setting the unemployment goal too high and the growth rate goal too low, the economy swings less violently and just underperforms.
9
We have the perfect storm , our consumer society is impacted by a precipitous decline in Services particularly travel , restaurants and events.
Our supply chain is going to be disrupted , of serious concern the availability of prescription drugs.
The Federal Government will have to act and I hope that help is targeted towards individual Americans directly impacted by the Corona virus or indirectly through lay offs or need for child care if schools close.
No more tax breaks for Corporations .
54
@Carsafrica If history is a predictor of future decisions - some sector of the "free" market will get bailed out.
@Carsafrica
The only hammer Republicans know how to use is tax cuts. Welfare for the rich.
Spending on individual citizens who are not rich? Socialism, Communism, and Welfare!!!
Don't expect anything to happen to help our citizens in need, not from this Clown Administration.
2
@Bob most likely you are right. However an objective observer will note Corporations got their subsidy with the Tax reduction which they liberally spent on stock buybacks and increased dividends.
Democrats must first fight for paid sick leave . child care for those who lose their jobs , a reduction in the payroll tax for 6 months for all earning less than $60000 a year . Free testing for all uninsured , free care for those positively tested and who are uninsured.
No help for Corporations who like Airlines have help via low interest rates , low fuel costs and tax cuts from 2017. No more should be given but it will be hence the need for Pelosi, Schumer , Biden and Sanders to fight for Americans in need
2
While the economic slow down from the Covid-19 is real, there are other factors at play here.
One is the oil glut, and equally significant, the natural gas glut. The fracking boom and the several new European pipelines have over saturated the market.
But probably the biggest factor is that the market was way overvalued and overdue for a correction. Some economists saw a significant correction, other a recession. When these three factors are combined a recession seems to be the most likely result.
We probably would have gotten to this point sooner and maybe more gradually except for the boost from the massive corporate tax cuts.
Most of that "free money" went back into stock buy backs and exotic derivatives. It was a boon for investors and drove the market to new heights but it was bound not to last.
The real economy got very little benefit from the tax cuts and there are lots of numbers beyond the 3.5% unemployment rate that indicate very real weaknesses.
A recent report showed that 45% of the American workforce earns a median salary of $18k a year. Another showed that 40% of Americans have less than $500 in savings.
These factors are not going to be affected by the Fed. The real question is how will this impact the 2020 election?
So far it's too early to tell but it's not looking good in the land of neoliberal economics.
31
Great news, I hope the economy continues to suffer, or at least fails to recover, until November. For me, the overwhelming concern is not that I'll lose thousands in investments, or get covid-19, but that Trump must be gotten out of office. He is entirely destructive to the environment, international affairs, America's social fabric, democracy itself, science, and dozens of other important things. There is no issue of greater importance today than getting him out of power.
So, if the economy continues to falter, that's his only claim to fame. Not that he actually had any impact on the decent economic advances so far, but his supporters are happy to believe his constant lies, and he certainly claims to be behind all the good economic news.
Thus, I really hope it keeps doing badly, much as this will hit my investments too, because hopefully that will make people change their minds and vote against him. And if 10% of his current supporters change their minds, he loses for certain. And then the economy will rebound after that.
250
@Dan Stackhouse A very dangerous recommendation that represents very little understanding of economic history or the real world of politics. Actually, when things get worse, people turn to extremist politics--fascism or communism. Positive change occurs when people see hope for the future. In 1933, the US was on the verge of revolution; FDR's election saved us. And of course in Germany....
15
@Dan Stackhouse
I'm not a Trump supporter, but I certainly would not wish that many people would go bankrupt or lose their home in the hope that Trump would be blamed for it. Everyone should be rooting for the economy to bounce back, rather than seeing people suffer.
16
@Dan Stackhouse I understand your sentiment, but when the economy tanks, a certain segment of society falls hard and often doesn't recover.
14
Famed economist JM Keynes said in 1935: economic health depends on business investment, and that depends on the animal instincts of business people." Mostly right on both counts, though consumer spending has become much more important since WWII.
From a macro standpoint, it is absurd that during an 11 year expansion, similar to the 1990s in many respects, tax rates weren't increased enough to balance the Federal budget, and give the govt room to do deficit spending as a stimulus when it might actually be needed, such as now, or in 2008.
Same with extremely low interest rates; allowing a business to borrow at even lower than low, which we have already, should have only small impact on that business' decision to borrow at all (for expansion that is now unlikely to happen for a while - a good project at say 3% interest won't be all that much better at 2.5% - the interest rate is only a small part of the overall costs of that project to the business, like tax rates are).
In other words, as usual, the GOP has it all wrong. Lower taxes don't reduce deficits, they increase them. And deficits are a burden on future generations that we should only place on them when absolutely necessary - i.e. short-run emergencies that are paid back quickly. We had a balanced fed budget in 2000 before the GOP took over and took us to endless wars via deficit spending, and alleged econ expansion via lower tax rates - so now with a rainy day approaching, our tools are dull rather than sharp.
175
@cljuniper
Well, if the GOP was looking to balance the budget, you'd be right.
But the GOP is looking to bankrupt the government, so that they have an excuse to eliminate everything except defense spending.
Grover Norquist told them this is how to do it, and they're doing it.
26
@cljuniper The U.S. has been in endless war since WWII. It's not only a GOP problem, it's an American problem.
5
@cljuniper
Dull, sharp, and rusty.
2
Very rarely do I note anything about "the universe" attempting to communicate with us mortals, yet I can't help but wonder if 'the gods have grown tired of us' idiot humans. We didn't heed the warnings through the populist uprisings that swept across the world in 2016; nor have we considered the myriad cautioning by scientists, and natural disasters that wrought havoc in the latter part of the last decade. Now, we have a soon to be announced global pandemic looking to quash the flimsy economic stability we've been teetering on since the Great Recession and kill thousands mercilessly. Wonder if we'll listen now? Wonder if it's too late...
24
@Curend
More importantly will religious evangelicals and conservatives interpret this pandemic and stock market crisis as god’s punishment on their actions, of greed and unregulated financial polices, tax cuts for the rich, or destruction of the environment, or will they blame some obscure marginalized group?
1
@Curend You would think that when this pandemic ends we could all just sit down and talk to each other.
1
Down, down, down we go.
Round, round, round we go.
Watching our markets go down the drain.
Times make the man. At this point does anyone think our loser president will be of any help stopping or st least limiting our impending financial crises. I hope he can, but I suspect he’ll just run away to Mar-a-Lago to hide. And while I’m at it, how much are all this phony president’s Florida jaunts and campaign rallies costing me as a tax paying American? Shouldn’t his GOP campaign at least be paying for his rallies. Toss him out or he will send us all to the poor house! 2020, 2020, 2020!
71
Not to worry. We have a stable genius in charge.
73
two thing I learned in life: you cannot tell the future and you can't read people minds.
I don't know what your thinking, even though I hear what your saying. my guess is you hope people will behave in a certain way and that will benefit you.
2
Amazing to see how much people are panicking. Just amazing
9
Maybe if we had a president we could trust. Maybe if we had enough tests. Maybe if sick people could afford to stay home from work and see a doctor. Maybe if the stock market had not dropped ...what is now...4,000 points?
No need to panic.
1
@Nycdweller Pity that we don't have a leader we can trust.
1
The record bull market was built on the back of cheap credit. The coronavirus exposed the weakness that was hinted at last year with the first drop in interest rates. Dropping interest rates for indebted corporations is like dropping the price of heroin for junkies, you can get more and more, but eventually the drug itself will kill you.
48
President Trump stated today that the stock market drop is caused by "Fake News."
51
Well if he said it, it's definitely not true.
1
Wow. Thank God the president tells us that everything is just roaring along.
27
If the coronavirus crises drag on into the summer, and Biden cleans up in the next round of the primaries , Trump can start packing his bags, he's toast.
34
@TY Hope so....
This is the absolute worse time to impose tariffs on imported goods, especially those that US industry needs to manufacture products. Trump has specifically targeted these input materials.
Tariffs, by their nature, reduce commerce because they reduce trade. They are impediments to the free flow of goods across international boundaries. The Trump tariffs have done just that. Chinese exports are down and so are ours. US manufacturing is contracting because our input costs have risen so high that we can't compete globally and consumers are rejecting the higher prices.
And now this. Trump sees the low unemployment figures and rising stock market as evidence of a super robust economy. It is not. It's tax cut bubble that just burst. The markets are self correcting, as they always do. The economic pain from the pandemic is just beginning and we never had the surplus of strength to absorb it.
The self-proclaimed Tariff Man should be called Recession Man because going broke is what he is good at. He went bankrupt six times. Now he is steering our nation down the same path. Listen to the bond market. That's what it is telling us.
70
After all the excuses and ignoring Trump's idiotic behavior, clueless leadership, and moral turpitude, the Trump supporters always waved it all off by noting the economy.
This of us who don't only read the comics and sports sections knew that at some point there was going to be a real crisis and that that the moron in chief would not be up to the challenge.
So now that we are experiencing the worst market downturn since 2008, what, again, is the rational for keeping this clown in office ?
125
@LaughingBuddah
" what, again, is the rational for keeping this clown in office ?"
Well he's the self proclaimed "stable genius" you see and that should be enough reason and he's also gathered up some of the sharpest minds available to aid and abet him. He'll fix the pandemic by naming it 'Fake News' and all will be well again...ok?
Obama and Hilary caused all this you see and he's just trying to fix it all up, give him a break...
1
@LaughingBuddah Same as the rationale among his supporters for electing him: He hates immigrants, hates the environment, hates science and loves guns.
That's the Republican creed.
1
I thought that this virus was a hoax?
34
Presidential idiocy such as Trump's intervention with jingo retaliatory tariffs against China have also done their damage. Trump won't understand that whenever he tantrums about the stock market tanking because of coronavirus it will have no effect on the economy. He is simply too conceited and infantile to conceptualize of the billions and trillions of individual inputs that comprise the nebulous construct we loosely term "economy."
24
@Tournachonadar , Trump has always felt ,in his arrogance, that he was a master of financial weather making. But the rain-maker has stumbled into a "drought", the extent of which he is ill prepared to understand, because his reach has exceeded his grasp. His reach is actually over-reach; he is poking a stick into economic forces beyond his grasp. The slumbering bear may awaken and bite the rear of its tormentors...with a market collapse.
We may be in for a number of bankruptcies, some nations, overwhelmed by debt, may default. Watch the rating agencies, if we enter a bear market.
Margin call cascades like those in 2008 will punish the markets, until folks wake up to the sickness this administration has foisted upon this country...in their greedy pursuit of power, and control .
1
@Fred Yaffe But he has the Wharton MBA
Bernie needed a "miracle" to catch Biden. Is it possible this is a big enough shock to matter tomorrow?
Gasoline was already cheap and getting cheaper. Please candidates, put the electric car and high-speed rail talk on ice for the next year. It has, in the context of March 2020 in the USA, gone from fringe to terribly tone-deaf. This is coming from a vegan who has not owned a car for years.
6
@Alan Bernie has 2% less delegates than Biden at this point in the primaries. He doesn't need a miracle at all.
5
@Parker
We don't need a miracle, we need to get rid of Trump. Bernie the socialist can't do that, Joe the moderate progressive can.
1
@Parker
NOT TRUMP 2020 !
1
Less than two weeks ago the president's chief economic advisor, Larry Kudlow, urged us all to focus on our long term portoflio performance and not let a minor health issue distract us:
“The virus story is not going to last forever. To me, if you are an investor out there and you have a long-term point of view, I would suggest very seriously taking a look at the market; the stock market, that is a lot cheaper than it was a week or two ago... We have contained this... I won’t say airtight, but it’s pretty close to airtight.”
I suppose from Mr. Kudlow's point of view the news today is even better than it was on February 25 since, indeed, things are a good deal cheaper today than they were two weeks ago.
There's no evidence the president hasn't lost confidence in Mr. Kudlow. So expect more of Mr. Kudlow's cheerleading in the weeks ahead.
That said, my humble guess is that stocks will be even cheaper two weeks or two months or possibly even two years from now. Assuming you're still alive to buy them.
18
@Old Bond Man The scary thing is the President had any confidence in Larry Kudlow. The guy has been more wrong than any economic expert I know of.
As someone about to graduate from a graduate program and enter the labor market, this chills my blood. The recession I've been dreading for so long is upon us. I remember how bad the last one was, and this one looks like it's shaping up to be worse. Astounding. I honestly have no words. Bernie 2020 I guess?
11
@last spoon it could be worse, you could be retiring into this.
@last spoon Just remember: Vote Blue in 2020. No guesswork needed.
1
@last spoon Obama got us out of the last one. Hiring Biden is probably our best option. The idea that Bernie would be able to get something done doesn't strike me as plausible. One thing's for sure, the moron has to go.
2
That is a very sobering (ie. depressing) synopsis of the situation. What's adding to the crisis is all the uncertainty, which financial markets hate more than anything. There are so many questions and no reassuring answers.
I hope our President had a pleasant weekend at Mar-a-Lago entertaining Brazil's Pres. Bolsonaro. It might be his last sojourn for awhile, and I can only imagine the turmoil that must be going on right now inside the White House. Mark Meadows may soon regret leaving his Congressional seat.
12
When’s crisis strikes, and they always will sooner or later, the amount of damage can be minimized if there is good leadership. Bad leadership will make a small problem worse, and a big problem a catastrophe. And a catastrophe becomes unmanageable.
So, do you think Mr. Trump is up to the 2 AM phone call? How much of this selloff is the result of the actual problem and how much is a vote of no confidence?
25
I’m in the construction industry. I’m bracing myself for a downturn in work in the near future. It might be temporary, but quick and severe. God only knows how much consumer spending rot will be exposed as a result.
7
maybe this is just the signal from the universe that we were all seeking?
7
It would be hard enough to weather this storm if we had competent leadership and a functioning government.
47
"The appointed time came...to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." I hope we wake up and wake up fast on these sustainability issues, even for a lay person like me, the dots are starting to connect. We are over-farming, building too many condos/cities on top of each other, creating extraordinary amounts of garbage that isn't properly disposed of, destroying ecosystems, ruining oceans, etc...When a virus pops up from some of these many misuses of earth's natural resources (including wildlife-where many of these diseases seem to originate from) the economy collapsing is a logical byproduct. When we have time to do something that matters, we laugh, scoff, or ignore brave souls like the German girl traveling the world. We call scientist quacks when they state we are using too much of earth's resources. I mean, when are we going to wake up? I think it literally has to be hysteria in the streets for someone to perhaps but down the bacon and recycle that plastic bottle...
10
@Omni There is an affordable housing shortage in America. We need to build more, not less. Of course, we need to try to do it as sustainably as possible.
1
@Sue
We would also need to raise taxes in order to invest in new housing, also creating jobs. This would be normal procedure for a forward looking economy. Yes, I dream.
3
@Sue
That is not the point.
Omni is suggesting that our planet is overwhelmed. What is it that the we cannot understand?
Congress needs to act fast to implement comprehensive, standardized healthcare: no impossible, error-ridden health care administration, no individual or business-related opt-outs, and no no-win, bogus "choice" confusing the picture.
Along with standard, federally mandated protocols for diagnosing and treating the coronavirus, we need a standardized, federally mandated package of health care for all citizens, and very possibly
for others currently in the country. At the same time, we urgently need to control the numbers coming in, because we're going to have our hands full addressing the situations of people here.
Sounds like the aftermath of a nuclear attack, doesn't
it?
Oh well, just go golfing, or go shopping.
10
@Get Real
Haven't you heard? Universal healthcare isn't "pragmatic," and may in fact be "communism," according to the pundit class.
USA Today 6Mar2020 outlines what Americans agree on: Infrastructure, Education, and Jobs. Let's invest in these areas, and source parts from within US.
9
Health care.
It’s a while since I looked but I recall that the American Society of Civil Engineers has said that we need $3 trillion in infrastructure spending just to fix & replace what we currently have.
Also, if you want to increase demand go ahead and give loan foregiveness to students.
And maybe we’ll realize that not providing paid leave and universal health insurance for all creates health hazards for all (rich, poor & middle class alike).
What the heck, maybe we should all just vote for Bernie Sanders after all. He’s been way out in front of all of this.
I don’t suppose God votes in most elections, but it appears that this year he’ll be voting and he’s casting the same kind of ballot he used with the Egyptian Pharaohs back in the olden days.
20
No investments in the market. I own everything I need and it is paid for. Sorry Wall Street and capitalists of the world. I will shed no tears for you and the Trumps of the world. My sympathy goes out to the real victims. Those folks who get paid to make the goods we consume.
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@Llewis
Do you obtain all of your nourishment from the land that you own?
@Llewis Pompous but sweet in the end.
1
In addition to stock markets crashing and oil prices plunging, this article forgot to mention a blatantly incompetent presidential administration. One of Trump's first moves as president was to fire much of upper level management at the NIH and CDC which led to crippling our national response to the coronavirus when it was still centered in Asia. Currently Trump's response is still denying the severity of the market crash and the viral pandemic, and blaming Democrats for everything bad other than the weather. I just wonder if we're witnessing the start of another depression.
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All this furor over the stock market is unseemly (to say the least) when so many lives are on the line.
3
I thought that Russia and Saudi Arabia were buddies.
Maybe they're just colluding to corner the oil market by driving everyone else out of business, then running up prices.
Once everyone else is destroyed financially and unable to continue drilling for oil, that would put them in the catbird seat, wouldn't it?
Is that the definition of a duopoly?
Low prices for the short-term, then get all of their money back when they have exclusive control of the world's oil supply and can run up the price.
Then Russia destroys Saudi Arabia's oil production capability.
Then Putin controls the world's oil supply.
If he doesn't already control Saudi Arabia.
7
@S Butler
Russia vs Saudi Arabia -
Good movie, the coward in chief in terminal conflict until wonder boy Jared takes command and, with Bibi at his side, saves the free world, setting up a 'new order' .
The Coronavirus is merely a catalyst that exposed an overvalued market that already had weak fundamentals, and most importantly, an administration ill prepared to handle a crisis of any kind. Just look at them spew expletives at airline execs who dare tell them they can’t flip a switch and provide the cdc with their demands. Like toddlers throwing a tantrum.
27
And yet again, we watch the Republican playbook drive the car off the cliff. Time to take away the keys for good.
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@Cooofnj
Tomorrow the bailouts begin. I've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well!
YES! Take the keys away!
1
Our stock market and economy have been running on a sugar high caused by Republican, short term thinking, and now we are paying the price. The Coronavirus and the oil crash may be the sharp objects that popped the bubble, but Trump and his lapdogs created the bubble in the first place with their irresponsible policies. Now, as usual, it will be left to Democrats to clean up the mess.
20
If anyone believes that the suffering this country is experiencing will help us get Trump out of the White House, think again.
All this pandemic will do is give Trump an excuse to declare martial law. Remember, we have a literally insane man sitting in the White House, surrounded by fawning sycophants as willfully ignorant as he
Actions Trump may take? He may well cancel the November presidential election. The coronavirus, which he has so far denounced as a hoax, will suddenly become so serious that he must suspend our citizens' civil rights.
A president's Constitutional power to declare martial law exists, but it is far from well-defined. There is little precedential case law defining its scope. And so far, this Supreme Court has bent over backwards to provide the expansive definitions of "executive powers" Trump seeks. The Roberts court granted him "emergency powers" for his Wall and the Muslim ban, on a claim wholly devoid of any facts. Trump simply said he needed to take those actions, and this Court took him at his word.
And Trump will have the continued support of his base. Trump voters will continue to deny reality and say the virus doesn't exist. They have a "president" who tells them that as whites they are the only "real" Americans, and for this, they'll sacrifice the health and safety of their own family members.
This pandemic has given Trump the excuse he needs, as his poll numbers decline these next few months, to seize absolute power. And he will.
8
@Orion Clemens For Trump to declare martial law and sustain martial law he would need the support of the military and that's not going to happen. I was part of that Institution and the loyalty within the ranks and leadership is to the Constitution not a leader.
15
@Parker
Thanks, I totally agree. I imagine many in the military are already quietly seething over Trump.
2
@Orion Clemens He's no where near smart enough to pull this scenario off.
1
My husband meet Putin in 1991 when he was Vice Mayor of St Petersburg after the collapse of the Soviet Union almost 30 years ago. He came home and was certain he met a gangster.
We would be foolish to not believe that Putin does not have a don’t get mad just get even attitude. His reported 200 Billion fortune can do a lot of damage to our economy.
Russian debt to gdp 17.2 percent. US dept to GDP 109 percent in January. What will it be in July?
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@Sailorgirl
The US has a 20 trillion dollar economy. Putin's 200 billion is a mere 1%. Putin can't do anything without harming himself.
3
@Sailorgirl, add in a rating downgrade by S+P, Fitch, and Moody's. A cascade of defaults by nations not hedged for this event could criple the global econ, causing massive distortions in commodity markets, like we see now in WTI.
Fed? No help there, interest rates too low. Painted into that corner..will need to buy debt instead, but downgrades cause debt carried to be covered at a higher rate, possibly triggering a default and costing us much more to service our debt...
I'm not an econ professor, nor an investor, just an innocent bystander, watching the whirlwind deconstructing our green world...
7
@Sailorgirl
In that particular angle, Putin is already did home run.. this the crema part.
2
"Then over the weekend, Russia and Saudi Arabia began an oil price war that sent the price of crude to its biggest plunge in three decades — which could cause widespread bankruptcies in the American energy industry."
So the economy is supposed to be booming because the stock market is rolling and then a bump in the round and these oil companies are bankrupt overnight after raking in huge profits for years? So are we to conclude that the claims of such a booming US economy is just another Trump lie and exaggeration. I'm sure this will some how be Obama's fault too.
18
The current market correction was triggered by the Corona virus but has been overdue for a long time. So we're getting a double whammy. Another more important aspect of the current environment is that it exposes an economic imbalance that has been building in the U.S. for a long time. Our economy depends too much on what I call "soft" industries - tourism and entertainment. We don't make anything. China makes everything. This is an oversimplification but... You can do without a $150 ticket to some live band show or a sports event. You can do without a $2500 cruise. $2500 cruise. But you can't do without a lot manufactured items, too many of which are made in China and not enough of them made here. When the empty stadiums, tourist sites and concert venues cause layoffs in those industries, we will have proportionally too many people out of work because those occupations are not balanced properly with people who actually make things. That will take the economy down. We don't have enough people who make indispensable things that other people have to buy which keeps the real economy rolling. The Chinese might come out of this in better shape than the U.S. because their economy makes real, tangible, necessary products. The U.S. not so much. Anyway it will be an interesting ride.
29
Let’s be frank — coronavirus will have a devastating financial and emotional effect on individuals and families. Medical costs and the price of necessities will soar as jobs are lost and nest eggs diminish. Family and social interactions will become fraught. Low borrowing rates and government intervention will provide little solace in the near term. A return to normalcy will not occur until deployment of an effective vaccine or the virus dies out naturally. Alas, this may be a year or, heaven forbid, more away.
2
The negative economic outlook wasn't a surprise to the CEOs of the world. I just read a big global survey conducted by PwC right before the Coronavirus hit, and the #2 & #3 concerns of 1,581 CEOs surveyed -- up several places over 2019 -- was pessimism regarding the trade conflicts and fear of a recession. The Coronavirus may have been a tipping point, but a recession was coming anyway. It could have just as easily been a war with Iran that tipped it over (and just think how'd it be if that had happened too!)
No. We actually had plenty of warning and did nothing.
18
Well, it's a good thing we've been creating all those well-paying, dependable jobs in the service industries! How's the "unemployment number" looking against that backdrop?
No mention either of the fact that a lot of people have still not recovered from the Crash of '08. But not to worry, the billionaires are doing just fine, and will do even better when they swoop in to buy up distressed assets for pennies on the dollar. Then watch the "trickle down" flow!
People are in for a very rude and painful awakening about how well things really are.
29
If this helps sink trump come November, that's a very good thing! Saving planet earth, saving democracy and allowing structural changes to the U.S. government are far more important than a dip in the stock market and a recessionary economy.
60
Very informative article, however, I have a question and a couple comments to make. Why does the author thing that the end of the cycle after 11 years is premature? I would think that the comment by Jim S. points to the right direction. The lack of capacity of the US government to look into the leadership role that the world expects of us, and the lack of fiscal policy measures that could have been taken by the present administration (briefly mentioned in the article and in the Jim S. comment) ,point to the center of the analysis in depth that probably will be coming in the near future.
11
It truly is frightening to observe what has happened with upending of natural balances, encroachment on habitats, zoonoses, wild animal markets pandering exotic meats, and viral pandemic.
The dire financial consequences seem analogous to massively severe weather from human-induced global warming and climate change—worldwide this time.
33
Lower interest rates and bond yields are only good if you are on one side of the table -- for many, both institutions and individuals, this means lower returns on investments. Are there more people looking for low rate mortgages than there are retirees looking for income??
63
@archipelago great point. With baby boomers rapidly aging out of the workforce, and younger generations already saddled with debt and underemployed, it seems that there will be many more retirees looking for income than people looking for low rate mortgages.
I also wonder about the consumer confidence right now. While it may be tempting to take advantage of low-rate mortgages in the immediate term, I'm sure many people paying attention are concerned about their incomes decreasing or losing their jobs completely, which might sap any excitement about big purchases.
My parents were planning on retiring this year and building a house, now those plans are in limbo. Similarly, I was planning on buying land near their new digs, and while I am excited by the low rates, the prospect of potential job loss is giving me pause regarding adding another liability on top of my student loans & rent.
23
@archipelago you shareholders "10%" are drunk from 11 years of higher dividends at expense of 90% who have been paying Higher and higher everything.Mother Nature is about to give you a nice haircut!
9
@jervissr If the economy slows to a crawl then almost all Americans are going to feel the pain. Do you think only the rich suffered in 2008? That's not quite how I remember it.
1
The economy, or at least the part of the economy as measured by the stock market, is like the Roadrunner heading off the edge of the cliff and then looking down, to discover things underfoot are not as solid as imagined.
The market has been overblown, pushed by Trump's tax cuts for the wealthy and a general shortage of viable investment opportunities in the economy of real goods and services.
88
Jim in Cleveland! I remember those cartoons a bit differently, Wiley Coyote was the one oblivious to his surroundings
1
@Jim S. (That would be Coyote, but point taken.)
All of our options in this predicament are catastrophic. Let the corona virus do its thing and thousands or millions could die. Quarantine, blockade and close businesses and the economy will collapse.
People don't realize how fragile the world economy is- it is so complex, global, intertwined and overloaded with debt that the removal of any particular 'jenga' piece can collapse the system. Also, we have such a complex supply chain that each 'widget' produced requires parts from all over the world and cannot function unless all components are available. Once the cascade of layoffs, bankruptcies, and reduced consumption begin it will be hard to stop, and the Fed doesn't have any ammunition in the way of reduced interest rates to stop it.
We seem to be at a turning point in history where incredible leadership is required (spoiler alert- not happening with Trump).
331
Just “credible” leadership will do
27
@John Dyer Quite right. The booming economy is a house of cards capable of rising to great heights, but equally capable of stunning reversals with the removal of a single card. The Covid virus, oil price collapse, collapse in interest rates, and supply chain disruptions are more cards than we can handle.
Good luck to us all.
15
@John Dyer
I don't see it as so dire. I mean, flights have been reduced, people are told to stay at home. This could be good for the environment, for carbon emissions. Perhaps it is nature's white blood cells, fending off the Human-19 virus, that has been plaguing her for the last few hundred years.
4
"But market activity on Monday indicates that some very gloomy possibilities are becoming more likely."
Translated as, "Folks, we seem to have struck an iceberg, but don't worry, the ship is unsinkable."
78
@John Graybeard heard that one before.
@Jim LoMonaco
The Trumptanic now is responsible for the NINE largest drops in the DOW in the history of the New York Stock Exchange!
1
It will be interesting to see how well the US copes by comparison to other Western countries with universal healthcare, better leadership and sick leave, and less poverty. I am not optimistic.
195
@F Walker
One advantage the US have is a much smaller population density. Equally, Europeans travel more.
But I agree that the points you raise may be far more important.
1
@F Walker --computer models at an Aussie university show millions dying from Coronavirus as it will re-cycle again & again. SO FAR approx. 3900 have died & 112,000 have the virus worldwide but these #'s are increasing a lot every day EG: A week ago USA had under 100 cases & no deaths & now USA has over 620 cases & 22 deaths BUT that's with only approx. 5,000 people tested! The worst hit countries like China & Italy already have tens of millions in 'lockdowns' & this will likely occur throughout USA as it's already happened in Seattle & area. Stock markets are down approx. 18% in the last week, 7% just today, and it will get worse. BTW, Canada has 70 cases & no deaths so far.
3
@Wayne, the fact that Canada has sizeable populations of Chinese and Iranians seems lucky for them...maybe just not comparable in population size to other larger countries not near a frigid zone?
Instead of just a fiscal stimulus Congress should look at redirecting the fiscal stimulus that was passed in 2017. It's now obvious that the corporate and other tax cuts had little or no effect on the real economy. It's time to claw those cuts back and reorient them in ways that will help the economy for middle and working class Americans. The net effect would be to help those at the top of the income spectrum indirectly; instead of a trickle down a trickle up economic policy makes more sense.
126
@TomF
There is no way Trump is going to take back the tax breaks he gave his Billionaire cronies. To do so would be to take away the seemingly endless supply of cash that is "donated" to his campaign re-election efforts by these same people.
2
@S B
He doesn't have to like it - he just has to do it. They don't have to like it either. It's an "eat your vegetables!" scenario.
1
Can we get over the idea that low oil prices are good for the consumer? Low oil prices will hurt investment in renewable energy, battery technology, and slow the take-up of electric cars (for example). Climate change is bad for everybody.
553
@Dan Low oil/gas prices are useless when everybody has to stay at home.
27
@Dan - a sad footnote to the drop in oil prices is that Trump will somehow mold the clay into a statue of “because of me, gasoline is cheaper than it has been in years and the spending power of the American consumer is the most powerful it has been in decades”, and his blindfolded followers will bite on the sandwich he will serve up.
27
@Dan Economic slowdowns lead to lower energy consumption, from less manufacturing to less driving. If we change government policies during the recovery, we could potentially drive more people to electric cars (and we are making less gas powered cars starting probably tomorrow, why make em if no one is out buying em).
8
Just in time for the Democrats to come in and take the fall, like in 2008.
I hope this time there will be real fiscal stimulus for the "small people" not the usual pour billions into the top and let a little trickle down.
I'm always amazed that trickle down has a positive connotation in some circles. The term was coined to shame, not explain.
Time for investments in infrastructure and R&D. Time to invest in improving our grossly bloated, inefficient medical system that will drive millions into bankruptcy without some meaningful changes.
I hope Trump considers the plight of the millions of people who show up at his rallies and idolize him. I hope, instead of lining his pockets and protecting his own, he does something for them. They have less than a $400 cushion, lots of debt, and precarious jobs that will disappear in the ill winds of recession.
141
@Sharon
"I hope Trump considers the plight of the millions of people who show up at his rallies and idolize him. I hope, instead of lining his pockets and protecting his own, he does something for them. "
I would not hold my breath. Trump does not even know those people exist as anything other than a roaring crowd.
373
@Sharon, one thing I know for sure: Trump is incapable of compassion for his supporters, many who will be hurt by the virus and economic stress.
25
@arusso
Did you not hear?
"Hold your breath' is the administration health advice. Oh, how to roar then?
10
In a time such as this, no one will ever look back and wish that they had panicked more.
Prepare and be confident, but enjoy life to its fullest.
143
@Mason Dressler unless of course, by not taking appropriate measures you infect your 80 year old dad with a disease that for that cohort has a 10 to 15% mortality rate, even assuming hospital beds are available at peak pandemic. I would very much regret not having panicked more then...
25
@Mason Dressler
Panic rarely helps, but making good decisions based on available information can keep you out of trouble. It would be hard to enjoy life to the fullest if you lose all of your savings.
13
@Fabio Panic is not action. Panic itself is not preparation. So many older men died in China, from where we got our initial mortality numbers, because something like 50-80% of Chinese men smoke. Much higher incidences or lung disease, emphysema, COPD. My 80 yo dad is in excellent health, and I’m not worried about him. He’s not worried about himself either.
3
The silver lining to this dark cloud is the effect on global warming. The emission of heat-trapping gasses are slowing, and fossil-fuel companies will go bankrupt, which will give us more time to elect Democrats and switch to energy sources that won't overheat the planet.
We were on our way to being toast by global warming. On every metric the scientists had underestimated how quickly the harm would come, from sea level rise, to temperature rise etc etc. We were on our way to temperatures never experienced during human civilization.
Will the Coronavirus save humanity from itself?
189
@Sherry .... "fossil-fuel companies will go bankrupt,"....Because the oil price is too low; which means increased consumption. The purpose of a carbon tax is to raise the price of oil to encourage consumers to cut consumption.
26
@Sherry I wish I could share your sentiment on this issue, but when the value of oil and gas is low, it shutters investment and demand for renewable energy. Solar, wind, hydro power and many other forms of alternate and renewable energy do well when oil and gas is more expensive as companies are more open to spending the money on the infrastructure to utilize these forms of energy.
Oil and gas companies will go bankrupt, sure, but only companies that use techniques that are no longer commercially viable like fracking and shale extraction. This is common in the US. The tar sands in Russia, Canada, and Saudi Arabia will do just fine.
38
@Sherry
Would it be a silver lining should the coronavirus result in the deaths of your loved ones? For some people, this will not be hypothetical.
3