Wouldn't it be nice if the Chinese numbers are accurate? Not just for the people of the world, but for Xi and the CCP. But can we simply accept what the CCP tells about the virus? Do they have any incentive to make themselves look better than they are?
It will be some time, weeks or months, before we know what is going on in China, or with the virus generally.
23
Or here in the US. with a president only concerned with how the numbers effect his popularity, we will never really know our true numbers either. There’s no way it’s not in a hub like Miami, yet we show no cases.
21
@dairubo Most of the sensible people or experts have come to accept China's Coronavirus numbers - if not the absolute numbers at least the decreased trend. As the Taiwanese like to say even if you don't have knowledge (wisdom), at leave have some common sense. And why Taiwan is probably the only country now still insisting calling COVID-19/Coronavirus Chinese pneumonia (中國肺炎) or Wuhan virus (武漢肺炎) or Wuhan virus (武漢病毒)? Government uses it, and many respective newspapers use it too, because Taiwan government shamefully and distastefully said it's OK to call it Wuhan virus/pneumonia as its A.K.A. name.
8
I’m sorry but we can believe nothing which emanates from the Communist regime in China.
It’s an insidious machine that values government more than its people.
I’ve heard the numbers are not diminishing but increasing at rapid proportions, with estimated that 50-100 million Chinese will become infected by year end.
In addition, the likelihood of a vaccine being available to the Chinese public is de minimis.
The virus is going to plague China much more than anyone can imagine.
The Chinese government’s intentionally suppressing the virus’ existence will cost the Country millions of lives - it does not care.
The author is either gullible and believes the Communists - or may be one herself.
12
The number of cases in China has not decreased. The number of Chinese Nationals seeking treatment has decrease. As all treatment centers are government run, operated and controlled. Many are now reporting that family and friends who reported to a treatment center have now gone missing. The family does not know if they have been transferred to quarantine centers or have passed away, but they have not been seen since seeking treatment. This has terrified the population to not seek treatment, but rather stay at home. This was reported to me by a Chinese National who lives in Mexicali Mexico who just returned from China. " Do Not Believe anything the Chinese Government Reports"
37
@Agentmike That is truly rumors! I have friends who just recovered from the virus in Hubei. Yesterday, she returns to hospital to donate her blood (which has antibody) to other patients.
Yes, please rather trust the Trump and CDC and believe in god that the coronavirus is another flu (which in fact has killed 18000)
69
We must remember that the China example is of a totalitarian government that lied to its people and the World. These lies gave the virus time to incubate and explode upon the unsuspecting. First World countries are (mostly) trying to provide up-to-date information and help. But the virus is cunning and will eventually be found in many places in the US. Lets hope the present US administration gets out of the way of the experts and shuts up.
5
I work with a number of Chinese and one lovely young woman invited me to visit her. The Chinese people I have met are lovely and it is a crime they are controlled by the communists. I really liked this person who invited me but would be so uncomfortable visiting even in healthy times for fear I would unintentionally misbehave and end up behind bars. When they are granted their freedom, I would happily go. We have our problems but we also have our freedom of speech and freedom of expression. These are priceless.
5
@KMW You should tell your friend that. Any sensible Chinese will not want to befriend with you, unless they are Christian I guess and you are a 70 years old. So it will save you the trouble seeing them. I'm Taiwanese and certainly don't like to people with this mentality around me.
10
Having lived in both Hong Kong and Singapore, I would be much more inclined to look to those two well-functioning cities for effective models of handling the virus that may well work here in North America, too.
5
Would you rather be ruled by the Chinese communists or by a democracy like the US. I think most would choose the latter. We have freedoms that the Chinese will never have under communism. We have freedom of speech and will not be imprisoned or shot if we misbehave. We are far from perfect but with all its imperfections people are still coming here legally and illegally.
5
Well somebody is getting locked up for misbehavior when we have the highest rate of incarceration in the entire world. And you are much more likely to be shot in the US than anywhere short of an actual war zone.
23
At least China has a plan and understands that government can play a meaningful role in public safety.
Public safety and good government are completely foreign concepts to Trump, Pastor Pence and the Republican Party.
America is barely testing for the coronavirus.
Trump seems to think it'll just go away.
Meanwhile, most Americans are preparing to make Trump go away.
521
Socrates,
It may be that "most Americans are preparing to make Trump go away", but another article in today's edition "Eric Prince recruits ex spies to help infiltrate liberal groups" indicates some Americans are doing just the opposite and with less finesse.
Like your namesake it appears you are swayed by reason which is unfortunately in short supply in this most religious of nations.
13
@Socrates Are you actually citing China as a public safety advocate? Ten people just died and 23 people are still trapped in a hotel that China forced people with coronavirus into.
Let's not even get into the usual daily working conditions of the Chinese people.
13
@Socrates
The author trashes China for "concealment and mishandling" the early days of the viral discovery. The opthamologist who eventually died started spreading the word that he thought there was a new virus and yes, China shut him up. But that was because he was speaking with no actual scientific knowledge. That is what should have happened in America when HIV was first discovered and so many rumors spread about HIV and how it was contracted. It took China three weeks to sequence the genome and distribute that info to the world's scientists and governments. That is not "concealment." That is not mishandling.
What is concealment and mishandling is what Trump and team are doing now. Moreover, the author is naive to "doubt the official figures" coming out of China - when we just heard Trump say that he "wants to keep the numbers low."
And when she says "The total number of infections in China, at more than 80,000, is staggering." has she forgotten that there are 1.4 billion Chinese, and eleven million in Wuhan alone. My God, does she not understand what percentage she's "staggered" by?
I'm sick of the anti-China tirade. Not that the measures Of course the steps China took are draconian. But China was able to contain this virus quickly and at the same time, provide vital information to science and WHO. Dr. Hotez of Baylor said on Morning Joe that China provided guidance that we should monitor nursing homes, but Trump's team failed to listen.
47
Stop hatin'! Scoreboard don't lie...Unless your country isn't keeping count 'cause they ain't even testin'.
7
When it comes to public health, whatever works is fine with me.
4
Reading this and some of the accompanying rabidly anti-China comments, I fear that the US will obstinately refuse to follow in China's footsteps, regardless of how scientifically based or effective they may be, as that would leave us eating humble pie. We will never give them the satisfaction that they were right. We will literally die first.
16
@Pigsy
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
- Isaac Asimov
Americans have long demanded stupidity, and Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump have faithfully delivered it.
Sad.
Tragic.
Fatal.
13
China is wasting effort. COVID-19 is a global community disease now. Even if they eliminated every case, the disease would reenter from outside China!
The only countries that have not reported it are generally those lacking the infrastructure to even notice the disease! Do you think Algeria, Nigeria, and Morocco will contain the coronavirus? Do you think India, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran will eventually contain it? Please, China is trying to close the barn doors after the horse has left the barn, sired many generations, and run to every corner of the globe.
8
@Bruzote You forget a couple of things. 1- Sure it could come back but by then there may be effective treatment or a vaccine. 2- Left unchecked, your town may literally burn when social order dissolves in the face of overwhelming numbers sick an dying.
Life is inherently fatal, but you don't want it to happen all at once.
7
@Bruzote China knew of it in late Dec/early Jan (knowing its infectious but knew little about the virus and indeed concealing) but acted on it on Jan 23-ish. It tried to contain within Wuhan and the whole world tried to contain it within China by all travel restrictions. It gave the whole world six weeks to prepare. That's plenty of time. People should recall the US took 6 months to respond. In comparison, I'd say China is swift enough and responsible enough, in comparison.
And in fact COVID-19 in the end if probably only slightly more deathly than H1N1. With the anti-China sentiments in place, the whole world said COVID-19 originating in China is dangerous. Now that it's spreading to the US, Trump tried to change its narrative and said is not as much. Well it's too late. The hysteria and panicking reaction is already there.
BTW, all leading epidemiologists said infectious diseases will eventually spread globally regardless of travel restrictions of not. The key is not restriction but preparedness. This approves their points.
10
@Solphs I meant re H1N1 it took the US 6 months to respond/ Fortunately the H1N1 was not as deadly as initially thought and thus the delay in response didn't cause a global pandemic.
2
Scientists have been warning about coming pandemics for a long time. Human patterns of land use change, deforestation, road building, mining, and agricultural intensification are pushing into dwindling wildlife habitat, increasing chances of human infection. Peter Daszak, a zoologist who studies the connections between human and wildlife health, said that “It’s our everyday way of going about business on the planet that seems to be driving this.” In response to the Coronavirus, China, (officially, at least for now) banned the trade of wild animals as food, but not for "medicinal use.” The use of animal products in Chinese traditional medicine is driving a surge in illegal trafficking of wildlife. The growing use of threatened species in traditional Chinese medicines has accounted for more than three-quarters of the trade in endangered wildlife products in Hong Kong over the past 5 years. Last year, record volumes of pangolin scales, rhino horns, and tiger parts, were seized by authorities in Hong Kong. As long as China encourages and promotes traditional medicine using animal parts from threatened and endangered animals, the illegal wildlife trade will flourish. The Chinese need to start questioning and raising awareness about these cultural practices to a much greater degree, and move toward more effective and sustainable and effective "cures" and products. Herbal products and plants are highly effective, and they do not cause viral pandemics.
8
As an American who stayed in Shanghai throughout the whole epidemic, I have to say that the epidemic controls since February have been impressive, even if control of the initial outbreak was horribly bungled. One has to split apart the initial failures, which would be unacceptable in anywhere, with the followup controls, which have many impressive elements:
- Everyone can get a colored QR code (the green/yellow/red codes) which is generated from a combination of travel history, cell phone tower data, contact with infected individuals and trains/planes, and big data. To reopen a company or go to many restaurants, you need a green code, which 99% of people are getting. This is pretty Big Brother, but is also the most advanced form of contact tracing I've heard of.
-99% of people on the streets wear masks, and all indoors venues require masks and temperature checks to enter. There's government distribution of very inexpensive surgical masks every few weeks. It's only 5 masks every time, but it's something. 3M N95 masks, made in Shanghai, are now available in stores as of a week ago for 20 yuan, which is 1/7 the price of $20 N95 masks I'm seeing on eBay in the US.
-The neighborhood committee volunteers are nowhere as scary as the NYT is making them seem. They're mostly white-collar office workers who help with finding delivery packages, which are left at the gates, and collect info on folks returning to Shanghai.
323
@Xenophon Second that. Family and friends in the USA couldn’t fathom how I could be so “blasé’” by choosing to stay put. As wearisome as wearing a mask and having my temperature taken ten times a day can be, I felt then, and continue to feel, that I made the right choice.
83
@Xenophon I am also an American who has been in Shanghai since late December. My experience and observations are same as yours. It is hard to be house bound for close to 6 weeks, but people in Shanghai and rest of the country do it for the good of whole society. I commend and respect that. I hope some of my fellow Americans stop analyzing everything Chinese do through the lens of negativity, but concentrating on getting yourselves prepared. Yes, US squandered time the Chinese bought for us, but it is never too late. It will require the whole US society band together to fight it!
61
@Xenophon
We are in Shanghai as well. You have perfectly encapsulated the strengths of the current approach.
It has built confidence with the public that they can go on with their lives till the hoped for vaccine is developed within 6months or even a year. The tracking system is very impressive and hardly in the circumstances draconian as much as the NYT wants to lable anything China does as "heavy handed". Good thing their pitch largely just works on their immediate American audience. Europeans and the rest of the world are far better a seeing a more sophisticated and balanced picture.
50
Why such emphasis on an ‘economy’ without considering the components of an economy, primarily product or service, money, and PEOPLE? With significantly fewer people, there would be drastic changes to any economy.
For historical examples, look at the struggling economies in Europe following WWI and the flu epidemic that wiped out much of the younger population. And how that ended.
7
Remember, at the start, the World Health Organization said that there should not be travel bans because they cause economic harm and stigmatization? Later, they said that stigmatization was a worse problem than the disease. At the same time they lavished praise on China for its internal travel restrictions. The WHO had blood on its hands.
15
@Andrew Nielsen
There's a difference between quarantining one highly affected area and banning travel from entire countries. For example, in Italy right now, they are having a lockdown of the specific villages in Northern Italy that are most affected. Other countries aren't banning travel from all of Italy, much less all of Europe.
Most of China outside of the area quarantined by the Chinese government has had no new cases in a while. A traveler from Italy is much more likely to have the coronavirus than traveler from the non-Wuhan parts of China. So putting travel restrictions on all of China does nothing to stop the disease and is unjustified discrimination, as the WHO rightly pointed out. Canada has been perfectly able to control the disease despite not restricting travel from China, and we could have too. In fact, we probably would have controlled the disease better if we had been monitoring individual travelers instead of pretending that cutting off travel from China would solve the problem.
19
@Andrew Nielsen China is the biggest state contributor to the both the WHO Assessed (population and wealth) Fund, and the Voluntary Fund. As the saying goes - money talks.
1
Feelings over facts leads to bad outcomes.
2
The US government is not going to give us or deliver us free food. It is each man for himself and will remain so. In addition if it gets so dangerous that's what is called for, no grocery or retail workers will be willing to risk infection, only the military will be equipped to handle the delivery. None of this will happen. Hospitals are still asking for insurance before offering any treatment. We have no concern for our fellow man. The Presidont is worried about cruise patients affecting his image and the numbers, he is not concerned with the best way to treat them or their pain, suffering and well being. This says everything about America.
166
America didn’t starve millions to death in the 1950s and 60s. I’ll take a limited government over the all powerful one that can both deliver “free” food or withhold food from entire cities.
11
@CEI - Funny, I went to the store yesterday and stocked up on food that the U.S. government paid for. Oh SNAP!
5
@James And our 'limited' government used atomic bombs to kill 250k citizens in Japan because we wanted the option to hang Hirohito. Then there's the fire bombing of Dresden all for physiological effects. And of course let's not forget what Manifest Destiny did to the original people of this land. And then there's slavery, Jim Crow, homelessness, gun violence, etc., etc., etc. Seems your moral high ground has some complications.
11
The CDC is working with the ~2% death rate as an estimate, correct? That is the reason why we are all told that the risk of catching the infection is low, and that we should go on with our lives as normal, and that young people are less affected than old folks. ALL of those statistics, including the 2% number is from Chinese data. So if you want to claim that it is a fake number produced by the CCP, then the situation for the US is really much more dangerous than any of us are being told.
So which is it? You can't have it both ways.
34
@Eleanor Or less dangerous, for China may also have undercounted the infections, while deaths are more evident and in any case difficult to hide. We just don't know for sure.
3
@PGH
Not likely. If anything, they overtest. If you so much have had indirect contact with a confirmed patient, you are asked (forced) to test. They use information from flights, train seats, even surveillence cameras from bus stops to find people and force them to test. If one person in a living community is confirmed, the whole community is locked down. Draconian, yes, underreporting, I doubt it. The Chinese death rate is probably the lowest it will go.
5
You also could have mentioned that repression against Uighur communities imprisoned in Chinese “re-education”/concentration camps has gotten even worse due to the coronavirus. Food is very scarce and medical services are virtually non-existent. Also, many enslaved Uighurs have been forced to work in reopened Chinese factories that are manufacturing products for American companies like Nike and Apple. It’s actually against the law for U.S. companies to import goods made through forced labor, but it doesn’t appear that anyone cares about these violations. I guess all that matters right now is whether China claims it has contained the virus (which is highly doubtful).
22
@Zareen
I closely follow events in China, and I know the whole Uighur thing is mostly propaganda. No proof anywhere.
9
Really?
So I guess everything that has been reported in the NYT and WP is fake news. Ok, Mr. China apologist.
https://www.nytimes.com/topic/subject/uighurs
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-compels-uighurs-to-work-in-shoe-factory-that-supplies-nike/2020/02/28/ebddf5f4-57b2-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html
Is it possible that the lock down gave a milder version of the disease to many people especially the young? Will they be testing the population that was not critically sick for antibodies to see if the population is acquiring some degree of immunity?
If this is going to become a recurring seasonal variation of the flu will this help? Especially since it seems that the young have not become symptomatic infectors but spreaders.
1
Is Covid-19 a serious threat or isn’t it?
The president’s “hunches” notwithstanding my understanding is that the mortality rate is said to be an order of magnitude of 5 to 20 times higher than the flue. The R-naught is said to estimated to be 2 to 3.5, This IS serious.
I would encourage people to take a moment, go on line and review the history of restrictions, curfews, rationing and general community restrictions that were placed on American communities during WW2 for nearly 4 years. Then ask yourself: “Is any governmental body proposing anything on that scale today?” Absolutely not!
Personal freedom does not always trump broad public safety needs. That said, resulting community “pain” should’ve broadly shared to the greatest extent possible.
8
@Woodson Dart. Your "understanding" is another purposeful LACK of understanding to yet again blame Trump in your left wing echo chamber here. The most reliable expert epidemiologists here in the U. S. suggest the percentage of fatalities to be LESS THAN ONE PERCENT of those who have and will contract the virus. Why? Because so many people have such low grade symptoms they think it just a cold so haven't reported anything to anyone. When more testing becomes available we'll know for sure. In the meantime, get your facts straight or better yet, attempt to get facts rather than create them out of whole cloth.
@Irving Nusbaum
You misunderstood my comment which I acknowledge should not have contained ANY reference to the President. The specific occupant of the White House irrelevant to what I was trying to say.
Ms Oin writes: “China’s blunt force strategy poses deeper questions for other countries. It’s campaign has come at great cost to people’s livelihoods and personal liberties. Even countries that could copy China still have to ask whether the cure is worse than the disease.”
I was simply trying to say that during the Second World War citizens of OUR country (a democracy) had to put up with far harder restrictions on their “livelihoods” and “personal liberties” as the country faced what was thought to be an existential. We’re not there yet. Call me in a month.
As for COVID-19, Fauci’s “under 1%” mortality rate could still be interpreted as being 5 to 10 times the typical 0.1 to 0.2 rate for seasonal flue...for which we DO have vaccines, taken voluntarily. If the mortality rate is 2% as some estimates it could become, the rate is 10 to 20 times seasonal flue. I wasn’t trying to exaggerate.
As for testing, the only people who are now being tested are those displaying symptoms who have contacted their healthcare provider / local health department or who have had contact with confirmed cases. The rate of asymptomatic cases in the population at large can only be “estimated” through sufficiently large random sample testing...none of which is currently being done in the USA.
China have won two wars that no other countries could have ever accomplished - the war against terrorism in Xinjiang and now the war against Coronavirus.
24
@S. C. Well there was no terrorism in Xinjiang. That was a lie to control the population and its culture. Same as was done to Tibet.
4
Stop blaming the CDC.
You have no one to blame but yourself.
How do you expect to combat this virus effectively when illegals are living in the shadows in sanctuary cities, unknown and untreated?
Blame yourself for allowing open borders and sanctuary cities, before you go pointing fingers at scientists ad doctors at the CDC.
9
Because Trump selects the most unqualified people to head up federal agencies solely on their blind obedience and loyalty, the CDC was doomed to fail on its obligation to serve the American people.
Americans are collateral damage to Trump’s war on truth and goodness.
3
@Bhaskar This has nothing to do with illegal immigrants and sanctuary cities. Some of the folks bringing the virus to the US appear to be Americans returning from places like China and Iran. The rest seem to be rich, white Americans on cruise ships. How does that have anything to do with immigration? (And, yes, you absolutely should be blaming the CDC. They have known about the virus since December and still failed to ensure testing was widely available. That is what failure looks like.)
2
@Bhaskar
What doctors and scientists?
Trump fired most of them then gutted funding.
News flash: this virus started in China , not “ sanctuary “ cities and not from Latin America.
Most people don’t have adequate health care to even get a test.
I’m certainly not blaming myself but I am blaming Trump .
1
Health officials in Germany and France have praised the exemplary way Taiwan has managed and controlled its cases, even without access to the WHO because it is not recognized by the UN. You should do a story about Taiwan as a contrast to China.
34
@James S. J. Liao You do know Taiwan might be cooking its numbers, right? The Australian musician who has shown symptoms when performing in Taiwan (and later a confirmed case after return back home) contacted 420 people during his stay in Taiwan. We learned of this for almost a week and yet the govt has only tested 10 people (4 negative and 6 pending for results), 27 waiting to be tested, the rest will be untested.
There is no problem following Singapore/Japan's approach (if showing no symptom then no test and no masks, etc.) or Korea/China's approach (cast a wider net and have everyone wear a mask), but you don't selectively do one over the other. Create a panic and hatred toward China making everyone hysteria wearing masks and yet do not conduct tests when people have close contact with a confirmed case. The govt hopes those who have contracted and healed by themselves do not show up in their count, as simple as that. If you have any doubt, check the number of tests Taiwan has conducted so far. You'd assume given the proximity to China, potential risks and the hysteria the govt is creating, Taiwan should have a higher numbers of testings (daily or total), but sorry, but no, only very a few were tested (and Taiwan has the capacity to test many more).
1
Here is the upside to totalitarianism: Stay home. Don't infect others. If you are out and about, we will shoot you.
1
i fear that illegals crossing our borders will keep bringing it back into the country no matter what we try.
4
China,it is dangerous...
New York Times,every thing about China is imperfect,abandon it...
America,no many testes,no many patients,let's continue the anti-- china policy and go to the election and financial party....
the results,u will pay back something ,including the lives ...
in fact,even a dog can do the test in China. so what u want to CCP do more? oh I forgot that some of the province they pay people to test when u get fever!firstly 150usd,when it is confirmed coronvirus,the bonus will 1500usd!
if u think what some people called free is superior than lives ,whatever, life is for lyourself.. now the most of chinese are unprecedented units.
a chinese from Africa..
4
Weaker Abroad - Sicker at Home!
Donald Trump 2020
2
Dear Amy Quin,
The number of new cases in China has dropped to about 40 a day for the last several days. This is down from several hundred a day at the height of the epidemic. Chinese methods are working. The spread of the epidemic is slowing.
3
The western world seems still a stranger to Chinese culture. What China is doing by turning down its entire economy and the world's manufacture engine to contain the virus reflects its old saying "RenMingGuanTian", i.e., a case involving human life is to be treated with the utmost care.
When the west is still weighing on whether to let the virus to kill many companies and affect the stock market or (playing down the virus) to let it spread like the flu among population, China has already given its answer and put utmost importance on people's life.
Yes, the hurt on China's economy and the world is enormous, but the country has done so to protect its people, contain the virus with all quickest measures, and buy time, more than a month, for the rest world to prepare (though still some are not prepared while watching for weeks).
What is the purpose of sustaining economy while booming a killing virus? What is the aim of democracy when the majority cannot even know the truth of the threat of COVID19? And what is the supremacy of a "health system for some" during this pandemic compared to China's where the expenses for all the tests and cures in the past two months are borne by the government (ultimately taxer payer's money)?
8
Countries of the world should sue China for its criminal negligence.
The live meat markets are a primitive concept with enormous contamination risks.
The Chinese Communist Party has failed to learn from and respond to similar events in the past such as SARS and bird flu.
Furthermore, it is time that the West repatriated manufacturing so we are independent of China.
China is a disaster for the free world.
We need a recovery plan.
2
@Prometheus Note you also said Diaster for the free world.
Of course Free world is not going to accept it. Your thought is stupid.
Repatriated manufacturing? Even more stupid. As long as Asian manufacture cost is low, capitalists are going to Asia for production. Get your fact right.
apply quarantines/protect the most vulnerable (e.g. the model of densely populated Singapore/Hong Kong), focus on rolling out the treatment drugs (Gilead, Moderna) and let the virus run its course; sounds cruel? well I am not sure we can stop it, so instead of pointlessly trying to firewall all (and failing e.g. Italy), try to protect the most vulnerable (it is a flu for most)...time is on our side as we enter warmer seasons (higher humidity) and the virus will naturally self select to weaker strains (see 1918 flu)
What China did to slow it down* is difficult to replicate in other societies.
*it's not gone. Once measures are lifted their case numbers will come back up, just not in as explosive a manner as when it was blowing up
1
I don't believe what the Chinese government is saying about this.
Why should we?
1
@Panthiest Because it's from a NYT citizen and also coming from WHO?
Also favored by CDC?
Tactic also used by your own government?
Wow nice, why should I believe anything from US too?
1
Past time for China to close their meat markets.
1
Um, what was the alternative once they did what we're doing now: ignored it for weeks when it was far more easily fixable?
Unless they're totally lying about their numbers, which even if they are won't be covered up for long, it worked.
What will we do? Rhode Island has tested 20 people out of a bit over a million. That's 0.002%. That is, we're flying blind. People are not taking it even a little seriously: that denial or ignorance today is tomorrow's panic.
Guess we're not that much different from China...or Iran...but are very different from South Korea, Singapore, and some others.
Nature cannot be bargained with or PR'ed out of existence. As we will soon find out, with primary consequences that are easily predictable and secondary, tertiary...etc that are not.
1
The UN needs to ban the consumption of wild animal meat. In Africa eating bushmeat had been linked to the outbreak of Ebola.
While the risk of a global spread of Ebola had been low, the 2003 SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic and the current COVID-19 are different. The two diseases can be traced to China’s “wet markets” – open-air markets where animals are bought live and then slaughtered on the spot for the customers.
Until late December 2019, everyone affected by the virus had some link to Wuhan’s Huanan Market. The hygiene there in these huge markets are absolutely deplorable. What’s even worse is the suffering of those poor animals – some of whom are protected species –crammed together in tiny cages waiting to be slaughtered.
Chinese need to rethink their cultural roots of use of wild animals, not just for food but also for traditional medicine.
2
Why would anyone believe what the Chinese government says?
You might as well believe Trump!
1
The article, and particularly the headline, points out a very curious and depressing aspect of American society. EVERYTHING apparently is measured in dollars.
Here we are, facing the possibility of a disease spreading across the US that will kill, conservatively, a few hundred thousand people, maybe pushing a million. What is the reaction in the US? Whoa, folks, hold on. What about the stock market?
So the heathen Chinese think it might be more important to save lives. Here in the US, we get back to the business of worshiping our God - money - and practicing our religion - capitalism.
Who are the heathens?
5
China caused this mess. Imagine such totalitarian regime ruling uncontested the world.
2
We may need to accept the virus as being with us all until a vaccine is developed. Seems like trying to hold back the ocean. I wonder if that’s why we have a “shortage” of tests. Like covering the eyes of the children on the Titanic. That way the stock market and the entire economy won’t totally tank. Immunity and recovery will dominate over the susceptible who will pass away. Once the susceptible are gone then we can resume our roaring economy. Sounds terrible and cruel but I’m wondering if that’s not what the current administration is concluding.
10
@Mickey - That's a polite way of putting it. The disease is now in poor, heavily populated countries. The cat is out of the bag and never going back in using containment measures alone.
2
I very much hope that the epidemic is abating in China. However, why should we trust either the statements or the statistics of this government?
20
@Stephen Merritt - Try looking at a global map of the virus' detection before you waste more time worrying about China. The disease is in nearly every country (and maybe all, since reported cases are always fewer than actual).
6
With news just breaking that Italy's death rate doubled over night and the fact the the press leaked the intent to impose a China-like locked down which has caused panicking and fleeing (ironically) it's time to ratchet up our game. Well...it's long past time, but if we do not start mass testing and imposing quarantines, this is going to get incomprehensibly worse.
I hope it's perfectly clear to Americans that when we look at the handy map the NYT provides, it is not remotely the real situation. Absent widespread testing, we have no idea how bad it is here. The tragedy is that the attempt to pretend we don't have it as bad as others may ensure that ours becomes worse.
If DJT's administration is not up to the task of even pretending to care about keeping us safe, it needs to be benched.
15
@AhBrightWings
Correction: It leapt by nearly 133 deaths; one site cited doubling but all others show an increase from 233 to 366; still plenty worrying but I want to be accurate.
2
A lot of criticisms have poured on China's initial response to the virus in the first two weeks of January. But it has acknowledged the mistake thereafter and taken its fasted and heaviest measures to combat the virus, without hesitation to sacrifice its economy. The first whistle-blower Dr. Li Wenliang has died and now honored as “outstanding person” by the government (sounds ironic). It at least shows the government acknowledges mistakes and take actions to correct when the coronavirus was unknown to the world. Our Wuhan University class of 2004 also made one of the first donations to Dr. Li Wenliang's colleagues and patients in his hospital.
This mirrors the HHS whistle-blowers on U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees in Washington. They were also facing retaliation even when the world has learnt about the virus from China's situation.
So I repeat until the world shows at least basic sympathy to China's disaster (now the world's) that, "stop bashing on China and politicizing the coronavirus". There is even no solid scientific evidence the virus originated from Wuhan (we only know it breaks out in Wuhan).
Locking down Wuhan has saved millions of others within and outside of China, including my families who live only 50 miles from Wuhan. Stopping China's economy is for the sake of basic human right, that is, to live and be healthy. You still see politics? no, please not!
87
China brought it on themselves, they did the opposite if everything New York is doing. New York is ecstatic when they find a Corona case not because they want Corona virus here but because the only way to halt the spread is find the cases and get them off the street. Then you find the people they may have infected and get them off the street breaking the chain of possible infections.
China on the other hand pretended it wasn’t happening, they stopped nothing, every chain of infection spawned a new chain . It’s a common theme of communism , lying and deception. Russians use to read the government newspaper Pravda, by reading the articles and deciphering the real news to be the opposite of what they just read.
A free press and freedom of speech is very healthy.
21
Paranoia about Chinese information aside (and the politically charged commentators aside, sigh), as someone who was in China and got out towards the end of January, my question has always been when will the quarantine end since the coronavirus is not going away. I mean, as experts have claimed, this virus is going to be around for a long time so at what point will things 'go back to normal'? It seems that to lift the strict quarantine before the virus is entirely eliminated would be to admit in some ways that it wasn't necessary in the first place. Which seems like an unlikely thing for the Chinese government to do; that is, to admit that they had overreacted.
All to say, I think for the quarantine to be lifted than some kind of measurable outcome that was achieved will need to be recognized. I'm really not sure what that could be.
6
it is kind of comical to see so many Americans questioning the validity of the numbers coming out of China, despite the fact that the WHO says they see no signs of fraud on the part of China. I have been graphing the data from the WHO situation reports for each of the countries with major outbreaks, and after a period of initial chaos, they all settle into clear trends. Except for one country where the data is very chaotic and unreliable. That country is the USA. Those questioning the validity of China's data would be better served holding their own government to account.
46
@DWes
You are fully correct. The chart of the world wide figures following the Chinese figures like clock work.
Extrapolating, the rest of the world will top similar to the trend in the Chinese chart only around 10th of april 2020. (But then the world should take the same measures as China, which they do not do....only lowering the interest rate will not kill the virus .. on the contrary activating the economy now is facilitating spreading of the virus more easily....
5
I for one believe that a good faith effort is being made across the globe to share case counts and clinical outcomes, foremost by China. Some of preventiv measures taken there are nonstarters in the US and western democracies. However, it is likely that they are having some success, and indeed the new case count has be declining for almost a month.
At this rate, the epidemic could be over there by April. If one studies the numbers, the resulting proportion of the population ending up being counted as cases in Hubei could end up be < 1%, far smaller than the predicted 40% by epidemic modeling cited by Dr. Lipsitch. The difference may have to do with sub-clinical cases, but presumably the Wuhan numbers include many mild cases (80%) as well.
The importance of preventive measures should not be diminished by these calculations, however it does provide some perspective. It is a disease to be avoided, especially for vulnerable age groups, and hopefully our experience will help in preventing other infectious disease outbreaks.
7
Chinese efforts were excessively heavy handed, putting people with coughs and fever from any reason in concentration camps with little food and water and a single latrine outside, when quarantining communities would have worked.
They did one thing astoundingly right; they forced the virus to become milder faster than normal. Most viruses become milder over time. Being often dramatically and quickly fatal, easy to catch and forcing groups and communities into quarantine, isn't good for the long term survival of the virus. In time milder strains evolve and as people get them and become immune the deadly one becomes extinct. This happened when 1918 killer flu turned into common H1N1.
Coronavirus has two strains. One that kills 7% and seems not to have spread far beyond Wuhan, and one that kills 1-2% and often noone can tell who has it. It's the latter that has spread worldwide, and that reached the U.S. Quarantine strategies have stopped more aggressive strains of the virus. The process of evolving a milder strain that quickly becomes dominant took only a few weeks, and that is very good work.
Incidentally, the way the U.S. is handling corona virus has given the Chinese reason to call Americans ignorant idiots. That's the height of shameful. If I were China, I'd ban Americans and stop doing business with us. Really!
16
@Dora Smith China cannot feed it's people without US food imports
1
@Dora Smith
Please do not defend those totalitarian dictators. They have NO ROOM to criticize anyone!!
2
@Dora Smith "putting people with coughs and fever from any reason in concentration camps" - What's your evidence??
1
If China's flawed reporting system is incomplete, the rest of the world shouldn't have any problem is coming clean as to the lethality of the corona virus in Western countries.
If it's effects are limited to an an at risk cadre of those in their 60s to 80s with pre existing illness...as the data should know by now, the response should be commensurate with that risk.
The data disclosed so far does not justify the near panic and breathless disclosures disgorged by the media. But neither does the idiot Trump assist by blathering nonsense.
There are many of us who feel this is a greatly overblown threat, exactly based on the data to date. No children at risk...the same elderly cohort at risk as in any flu because of pre existing conditions...the de minimis global spread.
No one is suggesting nothing be done. Only that which is commensurate with the threat and honesty is the disclosures...not a 24/7 breathless hype...or a brain dead Trumpian expulsion of intestinal gas.
6
We should be taking lessons from China
10
Please. NYT coverage of the coronavirus crisis since the outbreak has been transparently, cynically used by the NYT, eager "mouthpiece" of US geopolitical interests (refute that), as a tool to hammer China and it's "system". The paper has already declared the US is in an "existential systems competition" with China and the emergence of the disease was too good an opportunity for furthering panicky US propaganda efforts to hammer the Middle Kingdom. Balanced reporting (along with paying attention to what the WHO said about China' efforts) went out the window.
After several humiliating recent flop sweat infused propaganda campaign losses including those directed against China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), it's related ambitious Belt and Road program and most recently Huawei all failed (76 countries joined the AIIB, and even the UK and Germany refused to ban Huawei etc...) despite reams of negative US media and Washington arm twisting the coronavirus is proving a godsend for US propagandists. So we are treated to endless stories about China's "heavy handed" approach which pretty much is what any responsible government does in the face of a pandemic. (See all other countries currently seriously affected and what the US will also have to do if things as they likely will get worse.)
Stop using this global crisis to score cheap geopolitical points. This is not the time or the context.
25
If China's vaunted "neighborhood committees" were as diligent in closing those barbaric "wet" markets as they were in cordoning off neighborhoods, the world would have been spared COVID-19, as well as SARS and MERS.
9
@Snowball - You are not well-informed about the origin of COVID-19, and all the major US medias have not helped making US audiences more informed with their basied reporting on China. Indeed, a few of the first reported infection cases were related to the "wet" market in Wuhan. Researchers recently examed many more initially repoted cases, and many of them actually have no origins from the same "wet" market. More over, recent infections in Italy and US West Coast appear to have no connection with China as patients have no exposures to chinese or people recently traveled to or from china. In fact, the first case of Italy appeared to trace back to his visit to Haiwaii. Of course, it will take some more research to find out the true origin of this virus, or multiple origins of related but different virus. For now, the focus should be on working and collaborating with different countries to fight the common threat, instead of indulging in blamming games and wasting precious time. Particularly, in the US, we are ill-prepared for this virus, and there are a lot we can learn from China.
When you see that the Italian government is now doing essentially the same thing as what China has done to slow the spread of the virus, you would be utterly stupid to believe what Trump keeps telling you - that it’s just another “flu.”
23
I appreciate that China bought the world some time. We wasted that time here in the states due to the idiot in the WH, of course, but China did the right thing. When people are spreading a disease, the only way to stop to spread is to stop the movement and mixing of people. It's simple, really. What worries me is that people here in the U.S. are too stubborn, spoiled and selfish to comply with such mass-quarantine orders, even if it saves lives. That said, if businesses could somehow be forced to give everyone the time off needed - with pay - so we can stop this virus from spreading, then I think more people would comply. But will businesses do this? Of course not. All they care about is profit, no matter who suffers.
13
@VT1985 - great points. We also wasted a lot of time pointing figers at each other, and at other countries like China. Let is focus on how to be more informed and prepare for the virus, and there are a lot we can lear from China. One key point is the national unity displayed amounc Chinese people in figting this virus, and the speed with which the Chinese government responded to the virus. A house divided will fall.
7
@DYL unity by gun point
@VT1985 What are we talking, 100,000 infections and 3-4000 deaths on a country of 1.5 TRILLION ,,, everyone needs to get a grip
I believe nothing coming from CHINA. Truck on with your beliefs as virtually all you know comes from others whose veracity you depend on & trust all the way to believe blindly.
10
There comes a point, be it an existential war with a country fighting to survive, or a pandemic the parameters of which are not fully known but could be disastrous, where one takes action as aggressively as possible. The Chinese model was ugly, but then would it have been better to poll everyone and see what they thought, or held hearings to determine who has authority and when?
The US seems to be closer to the second, though almost criminal misguided lack of leadership on the part of an idiot fool in a red cap in the WH is what puts us at risk,
No, easy to enjoy the luxury of total individual free will, but pandemics like this and worse may require a strong hand willing to enforce all possible practical measures,
We'll see soon enough.
4
Oh please.
Communist China CAUSED this pandemic. They are a COMMUNIST country, meaning they are corrupt, incompetent and suppress the truth at all costs.
We have no idea what is true or not coming out of Communist China.
And by the way, Communist China makes 97% of our antibiotics. Thanks Pres. Clinton. Thanks Pres Bush. Thanks Pres Obama. Thanks Wall Street for selling our country to the highest bidder, that being a communist tyrannical regime that can kill millions of Americans merely by not shipping medications to us.
Time for a New Marshall Plan. Bring back vital manufacturing, like antibiotics, etc. back to America.
13
@Cjmesq0 You like many ill-informed folks are turning this into another geopolitcal blame game, which we have precious little time for before COVID-10 engulfs the US. Let us focus on learing from each other how to conquer this virus. We will leave it to scientist to find out the exact origin of this virus, either from one source, or multiple indepdendent sources.
@Cjmesq0 You forgot President Reagan and President Trump or purposely did that? Manufacturing for 3 years under trump is still in China? Am I missing something?
2
I’m with you@cjemesqo! Quality plan.
1
This piece is a despicable pile of falsehoods. China did exactly what was needed: they found the epicentre, drew a perimeter around it and locked it down until the source of the outbreak is identified, which happened within 3 days. Once the virus was identified, massive resources were dedicated to bring its spread under control and and this is why we see what we see today.
Politicising something like this is beyond contemptible.
23
I don't believe a scintilla of what China reports. It's an authoritarian regime, with an ego maniac as their leader. Xi Jinping is not as mentally deranged as Donald Trump, but they're of the same ilk.
7
@Marc Castle Please provide your degrees and certifications in psychology, then i will listen
A question for those obsessed with the veracity of Chinese data. What do you think is actually happening?
1-China grossly overacted to a nothing virus and is now continuing to burn billions of dollars to keep up the charade? This is nuts. Xi would've declared a People's Victory, the CCP would've created a "Xi slays Corona" holiday and back to business as usual. Claim that it's gone and some people have the "flu", whatever.
2-Despite draconian measures the epidemic continues like wildfire. Millions are dead in their homes. The PLA is burning corpses by the thousand every day. If this is the case, does taking no steps here in the West make any sense? At the very least, we better be preparing for mass body disposal.
The 3rd and most likely possibility is that their data is fairly accurate and that extreme social distancing has been effective. In which case, we should seriously consider doing what works so that it doesn't turn into #2 here.
15
I don't think we can believe anything the Chinese tell us. We have no proof and they historically lie.
8
The communist government tells lies but Donald Trump is poster boy for the truth? PLEASE! Find a better argument.
@Philip W
AND TRUMP?
Here is how a government is risking lives to save an already crippled economy.
Thursday March 5th, 2020, the spokesperson of the government of Morocco made an official statement about the measures taken by the government to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. All gatherings involving one 1,000 participants or more are banned. What struck most Moroccans as strange and illogical was the exception clause. The spokesperson made it clear that there was one exception to these gatherings. It was not Friday congregational prayers as many had expected, but it was what is referred to in Morocco as “moussems”. The ban designed to provide a buffer against the coronavirus outbreak does not cover moussems.
Moussems are traditional festivals for the veneration of long-dead pious men, attracting tens of thousands for days and where people often relieve themselves in the bush. In a typical moussem, the conditions for the spread of a virus like corona are very favorable. What then are the reasons that pushed the government to exclude moussems from the ban? The government spokesperson was asked the question and he replied that the decision was made in collaboration with the ministry of health and that the measures the government is taking are in line with the guidelines and recommendations of the World Health Organization.
1
There is virtually no way to stop a widespread pandemic now. I don't fear this disease. Not one bit. What I fear—and what we should all fear—is the complete economic catastrophe that is coming fast down the pike. And what we should fear most of all is that our political institutions may not survive, given the grossly incompetent people who are in the White House, and the Mussolini-esque carnival barker at the very top. We are in deep trouble.
8
We people in Wuhan suffered a lot not for you such journalist using clumsy hints saying the CCP did nothing right. You can criticize the play down,the censorship ,the hidings, but not the lockdown measures. We got nearly 60K cases in Hubei, what if they traveled through the world? We sacrificed for you guys, we suffered for saving time for the world.
I read this article feel like you just stand by and scorning. Guys people in the US do have a probability to get infected. Pay attention please! Take it seriously and learn lessons. I don’t want any other city recurs the tragedy happened in Wuhan.
50
@Longtai what exactly happened,, what was worse, the virus or the containment measures?
"cutting off global travel, and suspending ..." It's embarrassing for an Oxford graduate to forget the Oxford comma before “and”
1
To have a livelihood one must be alive.
4
@caplane without food, there is no civilization,,, i remember this from a Chinese author
I cannot believe how many media outlets reprint CCP propaganda on virus numbers. It breathtaking how many appease this criminal organisation, while they continue to attack the west by cyber attacks every month. The west needs to wake up. Our media has lost the plot.
6
Our media was captured by monied interests long ago- this is just the fallout.
"The World Health Organization has praised Beijing’s response" if this is true - WHO should be disbanded as a corrupt and delusional organization.
This disease, and it's spread is 100% owned by the corrupt, incompetent and brutal Chinese Communist Party.
Does no one question that a disease that seems to only kill elderly people also killed the Dr. Li Wenliang, 37,the original whistle blower?
10
people will die: it can only be minimized.
1
Well, it would appear that bringing the full powers of an authoritarian surveillance state can indeed check the advance of an infectious disease.
My question is, why should I believe their reported numbers?
2
“The country that concealed and mismanaged”... Given the US government’s failings, perhaps you should be more humble in your criticisms.
9
@Andrew give it time, you will see results
I can’t even read the article. The headline is so offensive. It seems to say that a hit to the economy and people dying are equally bad things. Please.
How or why this framing made it through the editorial process is baffling.
15
I can’t even read the article. The headline is so offensive. It seems to say that a hit to the economy and people dying are equally bad things. Please.
How or why this framing made it through the editorial process is baffling.
4
These kinds of articles will not age well when the US is bungling its management of this crisis.
11
I can’t believe how bias this article is.
China should not have silenced the whistleblower early on. After they saw the outbreak of the virus, they made the right decision to lock down the city of Wuhan. At the time, we complained that it was a violation of human rights. Now, the virus is finally under control. Tens of thousands of people were infected. The Chinese government mobilized thousands of health care workers and volunteers to save lives. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU9FVqwO4TM Watch this video. You will be touched by the sacrifices of the health care workers and volunteers.
Has everything returned to normal? Probably not. It will take time.
Don’t criticize others. But look at ourselves in the mirror. Our president said that the virus is a new hoax created by the democrats. Finally, the outbreak is at our doorstep. We don’t have face masks, hand sanitizers, and even test kits. Today, we said that our infected number is over 400. Do you believe that number? I don’t. Now, we need to humble ourselves and learn what the Chinese have done to control the virus. I have no confidence that the virus will be under control in 2 months.
9
I can’t even read the article. The headline is so offensive. It seems to say that a hit to the economy and people dying are equally bad things. Please.
How or why this framing made it through the editorial process is baffling.
1
And we can trust what China tells us because?
“But I don’t think zero is zero.” What does this mean
China's is used to suffering.
During World War II, the 30 million Chinese killed by the Japanese Empire was the deadliest holocaust of the war.
China's civil war which preceded World War II and resumed afterwards also killed millions of Chinese
Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution killed millions of Chinese.
China's people have suffered greatly during bad and good times.
Chinese President Xi Jinping in defiance of term- limited collective leadership has effectively claimed the right to reign and rule for life as though he were an Emperor claiming the Mandate of Heaven or Mao Zedong's cult of personality.
After initially trying to deny and ignore the coronavirus Xi tried the blame his underlings and then put his former peers in the limelight.
6
Trump is the biggest problem. He is almost clueless about this virus. He should step down. Or just let him go golfing. The best policy before this gets out of control is to simply copy China. Tell everyone to stay home for 2 weeks outside of medical personnel. Otherwise this will just spread. Attack the disease while it is smal in society or the problem will compound.
2
‘Concealed and mismanaged’? At this point in time, considering how unprepared and confused the US is, shouldn’t that finger be pointing this way?
2
CCP China mainland did nothing for several months until the Politburo Lords realized half town was infected. Until then all they did was to suppress the medical scientific field going public. By the time they reacted it was pandemic level!
If you want to learn check TAIWAN, they have a low rate of 45 cases with one death. Remarcable!
Of course now, we can learn from CCP China, how to control the virus once we are at pandemic level!
3
Yes, the authoritarian cure is worse than the disease.
It's too late to stop the virus from becoming extremely widespread now: "Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said."
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
The weight of the government should be mobilized behind making sure everyone has access to free medical care and testing. Also, helping to subsidize sick leave for those who have the virus and can't afford to miss work.
Panic hoarding, draconian quarantines, public shaming of people who are sick and unwittingly spread the disease, and all the other medieval methods aren't going to stop it.
Quarantining and shutting down the businesses of poor people are methods that are palatable to the rich who can afford to ride the economic crisis out and would rather not subsidize medical care.
2
I live in Zhengzhou, China, in the Jin Shui district. This neighborhood - not city, neighborhood- has more than 1.4 million people - so just it would be a top ten city in the US.
My street is usually very crowded. But for the past 7 weeks it has been empty. I don't to post a personal, self-absorbed memoir comment about the outbreak - I've seen a lot of those, and I have to say, they annoy me. Also, Western media tend to treat outbreaks as click bait and entertainment - hey it's the zombie apocalypse (and yes it really has looked that) ! But that's horrible and I hate that as well.
So just the facts :
Sometime in mid-January I knew from reading reports that something was wrong in Wuhan. Zhengzhou is 500 km from Wuhan, in the adjoining province. The most troubling thing was that Spring Festival was coming and everyone travels for that. Also: Zhenzhou is centrally located - travelers going north, south, east, west would be coming through our train stations.
On 1/27 I sent a text on We Chat to my Chinese boss asking where to buy masks. She said not to worry. My taxi driver that day was wearing a mask. After this everyone will be wearing masks.
One day later my Chinese friend said I should be very worried. Wuhan was now on complete lockdown. At that point police were taking our temperature.
Then we could not leave the building without a resident card. Then we couldn't without a QR code on our phone. Police and community organizers guard the entrance, even today.
7
Compared to liberal democracies, a totalitarian state like China can much better pull out all the stops and take drastic efficient measures like mass quarantine, mass prohibitions, mass control. Therefore, China will come out of this much faster and earlier than the liberal democracies and surge ahead in the race for global supremacy.
3
Dying is a pretty big cost, so...
8
Now there are two words you don’t often see in the same sentence, “Chinese” and “liberties” unless the words “none” or “lost” are also present.
Hello, you write here, “the country...appears to be bringing it under control, at least by its own official figures,” and I feel that it is crucial at this time that the NYTimes clarify where it’s doubts about the official Chinese figures originate from.
Has the NYTimes heard from doctors or healthcare workers on the ground that the numbers are being tampered with?
The NYTimes published an interview with Bruce Aylward, WHO China Mission Team Leader last week where he clearly stated that he has seen no evidence that the official figures are not accurate. Does the NYTimes have reason to doubt his statement?
Accuracy of numbers is crucial, but casting a shadow of doubt over these official numbers that are so crucial to the gauging of global recovery should not be done without some facts or explanation, based on investigation and reporting.
I have seen the NYTimes reference doubts about the official figures several times since January, so I think now is the time to be clear about where exactly this doubt originates from.
13
"Happiness is a Warm Gun/Freedom is a Venereal Disease"
Background: China regulates citizens to stop deadly pandemics. New York City regulates citizens to stop them from drinking carbonated beverages. The US imprisoned 10's of thousands of asylum seekers from Haiti in 1991 at Guantanamo Bay for months because it was rumored some of them might have HIV.
This article reeks of brand assassination/brand damage/old-world political grudge, etc. It is also ill-timed with Italy's quarantine announcement, making the reader wonder if a similar article is underway to excoriate the Italian government. Answer: No. Never.
About this infighting making it onto the front page, a wise man once said "sometimes you think you are dining at the banquet, but you are cannibalizing yourself." When we launch these demeaning attacks we should not wonder why we are shown disrespect by the world at large who sees us as all-the-same.
5
And our free press, inciting panic and hysteria has done a better job? There should be a cost to the medis for creating an infodemic, who have spread hysteria far and wide and caused deep financial damage.
2
You wouldn’t know from the article China’s people live under a totalitarian Communist regime, where the rule of law is subservient to the CCP. Is it possible democratic countries would resort to Chinese tactics, dragging their citizens out of their homes by force and being thrown into a van in the dead of night, their relatives not told where they are being taken? This is a government that forcibly detains millions of it’s own citizens for ‘re-education’ in Xinjiang province. No, let us hope it can never happen here.
7
There is more to this story than meets the eye. For those interested in the science -- a report by those in the know can be read here:
https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/?fbclid=IwAR39pkEjxVIXAfCqV1GVVY5IJkdToXAC-TsmRMxOOFy5XEAv4HEl8HulFpU
Years ago there was a book written by a psychologist Leon Festinger called “when prophecy fails”. He followed a doomsday group which had predicted the end of the world at a certain date and wanted to know what would happen to their beliefs when it didn’t come about. What he found was that they doubled down on their beliefs continually moving the date but always believing that the end of the world was near.
This reminds me of the New York Times comments. People seem to be searching for some doomsday scenario. they claim; the virus can’t be contained, that it’s too little too late, or that there will be other pandemics that will bring us down so everything is futile.  I think the real problem here is pessimism. New York Times readers and commenters in particular are not representative of the American people they are like the Twitter mob a highly select group of elitists. Probably over educated in some arts program they have taken on the current mandatory mood of pessimism, futility, and natural payback for what they feel we’ve done to the world. This is not real this is psychological despondency and they really need to go see a therapist.
What will happen is that at some point the virus will play itself out, we will focus on the highly vulnerable population, and life will return to normal. I know the pessimists don’t wanna hear this but let’s see what happens when prophecy fails. 
3
Interesting viewpoint. I'm typically not a doomsdayer, but worried about this one more than any other in my lifetime (Gen X). I hope you are right about us absorbing this fairly seamlessly, but sceptical nonetheless. We shall see... only time will tell.
Great propaganda pieces coming out now. China started this, refuses to be truthful about how it started, allowed it to spread due to lies that continue and now is being portrayed as a heroic victim.
Despite spreading global death and refusing to allow independent verification of what happened they get pity stories. Unbelievable.
Where is the UN and all the other organizations that take cases to the world court? Why aren't nations standing together and demanding answers and access to what happened? Enough with the pity party for China.
2
Incredible inability to discuss China without the over arching villain narrative. The framework could have been a 'grateful' globe for the Chinese peoples' sacrifices - or, in the understated, passing comment of the author herself, "And it did provide the rest of the world with some extra time.” Meanwhile, in the US, how wisely did politicos and public health officials use that extra time? Try to get a COVID 19 test and you've got the answer.
2
What a mess of reportage. Starter: "the country that concealed and mismanaged the initial outbreak." It was not the country: China has a centralized government, but that does not mean it is monolithic. It was senior officials in Wuhan who did not understand the potential, then put a huge outdoor banquet on for Chinese New Year celebrations. As soon as these officials were ousted, the country went into action. And by that I mean not just government, but the citizenry.
Another one: "there is also concern that China’s numbers may be flawed and incomplete." In scientific terms, it's called "Sources of error." Does the reporter realize how difficult it is to get the figures exactly correct when the crisis is still ongoing?
The reporters should look at the sources of the numbers and try to understand that the WHO is using almost exactly the same numbers. But I don't think that the NYT is going to take on the WHO for promulgating flawed numbers.
2
No one really knows the behavior of the virus, which has already muted into 2 sub-types. Could this be Xi's Katrina, in the sense that his enemies have finally found his weakness? A lot we don't know. We see China government as a monolith but rest assured Xi's purge of his enemies has created more enemies than friends. From an ethical perspective, let's hope Xi wakes up to the fact that governing is not about power struggle a la the Cultural Revolution. If he doesn't get the Chinese's heart, he will never be a good leader. His mistake is that he thought he mimicked Mao. The thing is: allegedly Mao once said he was willing to sacrifice three generations to bring China out of the dark age; now China is the second largest economy of the world, Xi cannot ask the same thing without pushback
Before we get superior, China is doing a much better Job handling this than Trump. WE ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
Seriously.
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View the segment of the C-SPAN Washington Journal with Rosemary Gibson, yesterdays discussion, it is embedded within the website. China is a problem, not a cure.
Any statement that comes from the Communist Party of China is believed at one's own peril. Since their founding in 1921, the CCP have never been truthful, not to their own people and certainly not to the free world.
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We'll probably not know the truth behind Covid-19 until the regime falls and the archives are opened. The truth is not going to come from whistleblowers, of that we can be sure. This story has shown all too clearly what happens to whistleblowers in China.
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Xi has had a terrible year. He needs Covid-19 to stop. So the propaganda ministry will make it stop.
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I bet trump will declare Marshall law and round up all his political enemies as they do in Banana republics. Already you can see the senate republicans starting to silence the democrats by extra legal means.
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Just yesterday i read that word has leaked from China that they are NOT beating this virus and the outbreak and deaths are far worse than the PR spin they're pushing. The Times needs to do a better job than just towing the Communist Party line. You think you guys would know better than to trust the "official" reports coming from there. Now if we here would just do the same- scrutinize our health dept officials and make them test more people, like South Korea had done and the death rate there is only 0.6% We are falling quickly behind regarding this virus outbreak and will pay a heavy price for politicizing it .
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Expecting no fair and balanced reporting on anything about China on a major Western newspaper, I typically ignore the words and focus on the pictures in the articles. A picture, after all, is worth a thousand (unbiased) words.
This article which I didn't read is likely full of bias, arrogance, and cynicism, but the four pictures are interesting. Doctors are busy saving the patients, regular people are adapting to the new situation and go on about their lives, the stores are magically filled with huge variety of goods even when most of the enormous country is under lockdown for weeks, the street is empty but it looks safe. There is no fighting, looting, or burning going on which usually happen in places where people enjoy too much freedom after a natural disaster, an election of an unpopular president, an undesirable court verdict, or a loss (or win) of a ball game. I am sure these photos can be interpretted 1000 different ways, but to me they show a strong, confident and well-organized society. It looks like somewhere I want to be during a pandemic like this.
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I’m sure MAGA supporters everywhere believe China is doing a fantastic job!
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The Chinese dictatorship is the root cause of this pandemic. No one should believe anything it says.
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Let it spread! It's not that deadly. Think of the trillions saved on health care keeping boomers from morbidity
Amy,
This is disappointing coming from you, someone with roots back to China.
The least you should be able to acknowledge is how effective and efficient China has been in containing the virus, after the initial mis-steps. It is an effort worth at least highlighting because it bought the world and itself time and reduces the blast radius. Is it worth it? Absolutely, beyond all price, the fact that you are doubting this is mind boggling.
If the world looks at China via the lens of ‘because it is CCP everything it does must not be worth a praise’ then I think the world has missed a crucial lesson, and will pay a dear price for that. It probably already is paying such a price.
You do not need to be singing the praise for China, despite your association with it. But at least you can be objective, and not be afraid of your association with it. There is a price to pay for that. You know that more than I do.
Sincerely
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Of course, the Chinese are claiming that the steps they have taken are controlling the coronavirus outbreak. Whether this is actually true or not is a different story.
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According to the propaganda of the US government, such measures will not be necessary.
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I think that China’s lock down was just since I also think that the virus escaped from the Virology CAS Institute in Wuhan. Blaming the outbreak on a bat and the people of Wuhan casting them as peasants with weird eating habits was easy. This is far scarier than a bomb this is like walking dead scary
How can we essentially enslave the world because of a basic flu virus? crazy? yes
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Statistics from China are not accurate. It is that simple. So for example how many cases are in their top ten most populated cities? How many Chinese citizens that travelled to NYC are now infected? How many have died? These are simple questions that need to be answered. Have tests been done on the population in NYC Chinatown? Has one person gotten the virus in NYC Chinatown? If not then why did it spread so profusely in New Rochelle?
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I hate to admit this, but I just imagined a scenario in which aggressive containment efforts are put into place on or around the election.
Silly me. However, given the supervillain script I have been living since “Russia, if you are listening...” I wouldn’t be too surprised.
The Chinese Communist Party has NEVER been honest with what they call "Journalism", or "Freedom of Speech", to say the very least.
And so, now, China - where this Virus first started, (and basically from endless contamination of water and then of livestock) - "appears" to be bringing it under control.
The many things that the Chinese Communist Party keeps "under control" are: Freedom of Speech. True Journalism. Ethnic Minorities, "to be re-educated", and then, the stolen Nation of Tibet. Mao invaded a non-aggressive neighbor Nation, and took Tibet at gunpoint in 1959, killing thousands, and jailing more for their Faith. And the CCP holds it brutally, to this day.
Any news of Xi Jinping being a hero, or on top of containing this Virus, I'd take with more than a grain of salt. His track record, nor Mao's, is not one of Honesty.
The fact that the author of this article, the quoted WHO, and commentators believe the Chinese government's data is factual, without suspicion, and no counterfactual critical analysis is mind boggling to a point of driving one stark raving mad.
Somehow the Chinese government's latest figures on containment, slowdown in transmission, and less deaths per capita than the in the U.S. must be believed...without question even though its common knowledge that the Chinese government's data cannot be trusted.
Cognitive dissonance.
In essence, the enabling of the virus happened due to the poorest people within China eeking out a living (under supreme socialism) by selling exotic food which the conglomerates do not deal in. And because the people are poor, they store the animals alive in cages stacked high into the air which removes the need for refrigeration and creates the great marking opportunity of calling the food “fresh” but also causes the animals in the bottom cages to become the receptacle of all that which flows down hill from the upper cages, words so bad, you can’t say them in the standard media. “Blank flows down hill!”
Basically this same thing is what is happening in China right now to the people. The draconian state is controlling the people as if they were the ones in the cages and they are so effective in doing it because they are draconian in their ways. Of course it’s necessary, right? For the good of the people! But what good was the state doing for the people by basically forcing the poorest to sell exotic animals for food under the harshest of conditions? I think you know that answer.
We in the west are certainly no poster-children in this regard. Our factory farms, though more ridged and kept steril through drugs, still treats the animals as non-beings. Their (animals) only purpose is to serve us and it is our greed for more of everything that is causing these problems world wide. We are: building the same cages we put the animals in for ourselves as if were a noble goal.
I don't like the general approach of China - welding the doors of peoples homes, ignoring their needs if they have fever and want a cure, the maxed out social control and blocking any freedom of speech... China also published some Apps for your phone, where houses with infected people are visible.
I also wouldn't trust the numbers of death ratio China is publishing. But I also believe, China bought us some time and the western democracies miserably failed to prepare themselves for the impact. It's like the people of the Tsunami of 2004 in Thailand, watching the furious foaming at the horizon, until the wave was just a few meters away and running was just pointless..
China was at least trying to contain it, here in Europe and probably the US the politicians ignored the spread of the Virus to long and refused the most basic protective things.
In Germany you can still travel from Iran, China or South Korea to Munich, Frankfurt or Berlin without getting you body temperature checked, while more sane countries like Israel already blocked German tourists.
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Our PC democracy is a petri dish for this virus to thrive.
The political correctness in our democracy will not allow us to take the drastic measures that China and Italy are taking to quarantine whole towns and cities.
California, New York, and Washington have no idea who lives in their sanctuary cities. Much less how many are spreading this thing around, by accident or intention.
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Italy is now putting in quarantine a bigger proportion of people (ratio to its population) than China. Where is you criticism of Italy?
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The Chinese Communist Party makes Trump look like an honest man. That is, they are far more expert at lying and controlling the news. To see past their spin to what might be the truth, observe that the Party's objective now is to get the country back to work. It is in their interest to portray the epidemic as beaten, indeed beaten by their wise policies.
With the explosive spread of this disease, some experts are saying that a majority of the world's people will get it, and millions will die.
If they stop the outbreak in China by doing what they are doing,basically quarantine I would think we should do the same. Are we going to go halve way. Well if we do we will just have to wait and see how effective that is. This time the bail out can go to small business and I am sorry to say, the airlines. We are not stupid people and even Trump could come around and face reality in a nationally televised speech and hand off the particulars to the health experts and yes the National Guard. I am in Boston and New York next week but will return to Thailand where I am sure over time the same realty will occur. It’s not the end of the world it’s a battle to be won and yes then you pick up the pieces and march on. So stop with the “this could happen,that could happen and do the best we can.
In Oakland, the Golden State Warriors are going ahead their game with the 76er's. Given the concentration of Coronavirus cases in Northern California, it should be quite a measles party.
Nobody has any idea if China stopped the virus and one thing is for sure their official numbers are not to be trusted. It’s amazing when a free press that can’t operate freely in China because of press restrictions and people on the ground know that telling the truth to the nytimes could lead to jail time for them and their family, report the official Chinese governments numbers because there are no other numbers to report.
All the videos on Social Media of people being dragged by force in horror from their apartments in the middle of the night to an unspecified quarantine holding area are being characterized as “bold” measures taken by China to contain the virus. When in reality they show how brutal the government treats its people and the rat race they live in where nobody has rights to say anything bad about their corrupt thuggish local to central governments.
As Western media extols the Chinese containment as a success, keep in mind that social media keeps reporting the Body incineration particles in the air over Wuhan are way greater than the death rate China claims. And it’s doubtful the Chinese count the dead in homes as Coronavirus victims.
While keeping sick people off the streets can be useful. Locking people up as if they are criminals is not the answer.
The only good things to come from this is a curtailing of globalization & the Chinese people woke up to the danger of living under the CCP’s thumb.
WHO has ALWAYS praised Beijing no matter what it says and does.
The first thing we know for sure is that the Communist style of doing official statistics is inexorably tainted by political considerations and cannot be trusted, and it is hardly conceivable that they will use the Coronavirus outbreak to change that pattern. So their data regarding the number of people affected should be taken with a shaker of salt.
Secondly the approach of mobilizing a tank division to swath a fly is to be expected in China, but not in the Western democracies. The panic the Chinese have created might be worse than the actual consequences pf the novel virus. Most people describe rather mild symptoms, yet because of the panic cum hysteria they are treated worse then the lepers were in the Middle Ages.
Thirdly, the panicked run to stock provisions will create not just shortages, but will tear the social fabric apart, as it has been reported in Australia and elsewhere.
Forth, the incompetent response, coupled with the lack of public confidence in elected officials, and the nuzzling of experts will have long term detrimental consequences.
Out of all these things it is clear that the virus per se creates less problems then it reveals in our societies.
The first thing we know for sure is that the Communist style of doing official statistics is inexorably tainted by political considerations and cannot be trusted, and it is hardly conceivable that they will use the Coronavirus outbreak to change that pattern. So their data regarding the number of people affected should be taken with a shaker of salt.
Secondly the approach of mobilizing a tank division to swath a fly is to be expected in China, but not in the Western democracies. The panic the Chinese have created might be worse than the actual consequences pf the novel virus. Most people describe rather mild symptoms, yet because of the panic cum hysteria they are treated worse then the lepers were in the Middle Ages.
Thirdly, the panicked run to stock provisions will create not just shortages, but will tear the social fabric apart, as it has been reported in Australia and elsewhere.
Forth, the incompetent response, coupled with the lack of public confidence in elected officials, and the nuzzling of experts will have long term detrimental consequences.
Out of all these things it is clear that the virus per se creates less problems then it reveals in our societies.
In my opinion, the Chinese government should be penalized and better and better laws should be created.
Saving lives is more important than economy at this moment in time. Trump and his bumbling inept advisers should learn from China. Unfortunately we have lost prescious time.
Test all pneumonia patients in hospitals as Laurie Garrett suggests. (She should replace Pence)
Advise seniors to stop traveling for pleasure and avoid crowds whenever possible.
Anyone in an infected area should curb travel for pleasure.
Several white expats living in central Shanghai in luxury condos owned by multinationals are in here posting about how great their treatment has been and how not draconian the Chinese state is. Your experiences are not remotely equivalent to what the average Chinese person living in China has to go through.
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The author seems to have an opinionated agenda reporting China's efforts to deal with the virus. If it works it seems an effective approach. People are restricted from their routines for a couple of weeks. Sounds like a small sacrificial to stop a pandemic. Of course America could never take these steps, but we'd better figure out something soon, and stop finger pointing.
Given the intertwined nature of our interaction in a global economy, how long are we going to pretend that the Chinese native populations desire to eat just about any living creature combined with a stunning lack of personal hygiene is exposing the rest of the globe to pandemic threats that could otherwise be contained locally ?
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Sadly, China could of brought it under control even earlier, if it would of been an open, and transparent government, that respected the intelligence of its people, like those doctors in Wuhan. However, needed quarantine in a very contagious virus such as the coronavirus, is necessary. In the age of digital media, however, the powers that be in each country don't have to manhandle its people, they can be firm, but kind, and do the same thing. Italy, sadly will have to go into a similar type of quarantine that Wuhan, and Hubei province underwent. We have family in Europe, and have spent many wonderful days in Italy, but not in the area of the outbreak recently. I feel for the people of Italy, as they have suffered through the Berlusconi years, the Mafia, and now this. I have Chinese friends, who have family over in China, so am getting a more updated view of how they see this play out over there. Their leader Xi Jinping, does care about his people, but his fears of the religious Uighurs, and his fear of the whole truth about the virus, because he knew how dangerous a serious virus can be in a dense, and populous place like China, made him blunder. Hopefully, he at least can learn from his mistakes, unlike our President, DT.
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China may be beating the Coronavirus but will they continue to sell wild animals for food and medicinal use and release the next toxic disease on the world?
How sure is anyone USA isnt now where Italy was 2 weeks ago with containing the virus?
What can we learn from China??? Nothing. They knew about the virus in December and hid it, allowing it to spread. Their free health care for all failed. People were lined up outside of hospitals and in hospital hallways, not being taken care of. Third world health care.
This constant blasting, criticising and generally putting down China borders on the insane.
Viral infections and pandemics don't care about politics.
Humanity as a whole shouldn't either.
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The United States has the talent and resources to effectively deal with corona. The only person we need to "lock down" is Trump. His nonsensical, contradictory comments (and prayers from Pence) do nothing to prepare the nation or expand the number of test kits available. Fortunately, doctors and researchers across the country are distributing factual information. The states are stepping in, but if all people listen to is FOX news, they remain uninformed.
When corona first exploded onto the scene in January, any competent leader would have concluded that the virus would eventually work its way here and began the process of acquiring and distributing test kits. But Trump lives in an alternate reality, his only concern is reelection and continued looting. He seems to believe he can bully anything and anyone into submission. Sadly, it's worked for gutless republican senators and his brain dead supporters.
In the past, America has enjoyed great leaders such as Pres Eisenhower who would have managed the virus as effectively as he managed WW II. In sharp contrast, we suffer a bumbling narcissist whose mental problems preclude listening to facts he doesn't like or fit his distorted reality.
Well, they are a communist nation and I wouldn't believe their statistics as they are well known for changing statistics and government paperwork to get the results they want. It's a communist nation; not a democracy - lets not forget that it's because of this virus the world has a probable pandemic on its hands.
The media needs to send some 'on the ground' spies to double check what the Chinese government is saying is correct and not just some made up fabrication so they can send everyone back to work then send it to us via packages and imports.
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Lot's of commentators here writing "let's not forget that the Chinese," followed by some back-handed snark about the way they conduct business. Kind of hypocritical.
Consider what priorities the U.S. leadership has been worried about since the outbreak:
1) Pardoning criminals
2) Denying reality
3) Worrying about re-election
4) Firing top staff
5) DNA testing immigrants / not testing for the virus
6) Making sure the stock market is happy
I could go on, and yes, the Chinese are far-from-perfect, but they have their country and you Americans have yours. I live in Italy and just today the government has demanded a shut down of badly affected areas of the country. People here are whining and complaining, but this isn't a game, or a happy-ending-style American show where everything comes out well in the end.
Face it, you all should be turning your attention to your own, incompetent, disinterested "leaders."
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Fun to watch the same media elites that condemn China's "heavy-handedness" berate the Trump administration for not doing enough. No pleasing some people.
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'is the cure worse than the disease?' Well, I guess the answer depends on your perspective. No, if you are concerned about countless lives saved. Yes, if you think the Chinese government is authoritarian and evil and hoped that it failed and the whole country collapsed, which no doubt has been many people's wish in the US. If you are disappointed because how things turned out in China, wait and see what will happen here in the US.
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End free air travel for 3 months. No country should accept incoming flights for 3 months. Then in effect it is immediately brought under control. The internet will let communications flow freely. Only medical doctors should travel. Stop worrying about economic growth. If worse comes to worse all debt by all countries are hereby forgiven . Start fresh. Stock markets will crash either way
Nowhere in this otherwise informative article is mention of the fact that decades of uncontrolled air pollution throughout China has compromised the lungs of millions and millions of Chinese citizens. It is this no surprise at all that the mortality rate in China is off the charts.
As for the accuracy of Chinese statistics: it was only two weeks ago (February 23) that President for Life Xi told a special gathering of the Communist party that the coronavirus epidemic was “a crisis and a big test” for the country. I visited the Chinese media’s official website (link below) which carried a report on the speech, and translated the text from Chinese into English. Xi used such words as “grim,” “complex’” “ordeal,” “critical,” “crushed.” And then there is “bite the bullet."
Anyone who has studied communist party political phraseology and vocabulary will know that such language is meant to communicate a dire situation inside the country, far more serious than that which Chinese media and spokesman are portraying publicly. And now that China has shifted rhetorical gears, I'd submit -- if the past is any guide -- that the situation in the country is WORSE than it was two weeks ago.
http://m.news.cctv.com/2020/02/23/ARTIN7AmI36I8DUwHBV5OiVa200223.shtml
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I am wondering what will the author write if someone of her family got coronavirus
All this talk of the economy - all I want to say is better poor than dead. I don’t know about you but if I’m dead the economy will be the least of my concerns.
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For the 2018 flu season in England (popn. 56 million), there were 330 (repeat, 330) deaths from confimed influenza (A&B subtypes). And a total of 3,923 proven flu cases.
For a world population, that equates to about 42,000 confirmed flu deaths annually.
See where the "100,000's of flu deaths every year" comes from. Pure statistical guess work.
let's hope the cases in China has dropped but does anyone believe Xi? he and his party/economy has too much to lose...
If Tianmann reports of casualties from the Communist government is a go by - these Wihan numbers are probably way under reported.
But it really does not matter as the toll of even one person - from this virus - of only made in China - due to it's strange and uncontrolled food chain markets.
I have said this before.
Where is the Security Council when we need it to debate a global response and make demands of China what it will do to prevent future occurrences.
Over my life time - this is 3rd or 4th virus that originated in China - it's akin to bio terrorism.
All of these viruses appear to have transmitted from wild animals to humans via domesticated animals or a direct transmission.
The only place in the world is this food chain is China.
If nothing is demanded by the Security Council - this virus will pass - only to be confronted by another virus in a couple of decades.
Sure, China will resist calling an emergency Council meeting and might even veto a resolution.
In my industry of oil patch - we have leading and lagging indicators of unsafe practices.
If Wuhan is not the leading indicator of a future if China is not held responsible at UN - I can't think of any better example.
And all these unnecssary deaths of Chinese and foreigners - the worst lagging indicators if you ever saw one.
It's time for the world to demand an explanation and a plan for a safe future from China - that can alone be done at Security Council.
Or we are waiting for another virus.
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Lets face it, the corrupt CCP are lying massively about their death and infection rates, and face a massive, unprecedented threat to their rule, as well as the wealth-fare of their citizens. (Not that they care). This virus is not going to be beaten by their quarantine methods, as droplets are spreading and easily infecting people through ventilation systems in cheaply built apartment buildings. We have only just begun to see the destruction this will cause, and for other countries to adopt such draconian measures is absurd. The best way to protect a country from this is to give the people masks, hand sanitiser and make sure hospitals are prepared for an influx of patients. Hopefully the western world will realise that having anti-viral medications be produced 80% in China wasn't such a great idea and we will once again return to national reliance and end globalism.
I don't believe any of the statistics coming out of China. Their past actions show deception. How did a massive outbreak suddenly almost stop? Are they actually testing people? Are there any independent observers to verify their claims? And the most worrying thing of all is that this virus is not going away no matter what we do or what lies are propagated by Trump or the Chinese.
Hmm. More foreseeable costs of an authoritarian response: “Ten people died in the collapse of a hotel that was being used as a coronavirus quarantine facility in Quanzhou, a city in China’s southeastern Fujian Province, the government said on Sunday.”
Makes you wonder how many have died simply trying to leave their building or their village against the wishes of the police state enforcers.
Trusting the Chinese numbers now outside Wuhan is a fool's errand. The Chinese aren't testing people in Shanghai or Beijing anymore. That's why the new cases have been zero. They are trying to convince the Chinese population outside Wuhan to restart their economy with rosy statistics. When cases to reemerge they can later always blame it on reintroduction of the virus from abroad like Italy or the US. This is purely a propaganda stunt.
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If Tianmann reports of casualties from the Communist government is a go by - these Wihan numbers are probably way under reported.
But it really does not matter as the toll of even one person - from this virus - of only made in China - due to it's strange and uncontrolled food chain markets.
I have said this before.
Where is the Security Council when we need it to debate a global response and make demands of China what it will do to prevent future occurrences.
Over my life time - this is 3rd or 4th virus that originated in China - it's akin to bio terrorism.
All of these viruses appear to have transmitted from wild animals to humans via domesticated animals or a direct transmission.
The only place in the world is this food chain is China.
If nothing is demanded by the Security Council - this virus will pass - only to be confronted by another virus in a couple of decades.
Sure, China will resist calling an emergency Council meeting and might even veto a resolution.
In my industry of oil patch - we have leading and lagging indicators of unsafe practices.
If Wuhan is not the leading indicator of a future if China is not held responsible at UN - I can't think of any better example.
And all these unnecssary deaths of Chinese and foreigners - the worst lagging indicators if you ever saw one.
It's time for the world to demand an explanation and a plan for a safe future from China - that can alone be done at Security Council.
Or we are waiting for another virus.
If Tianmann reports of casualties from the Communist government is a go by - these Wihan numbers are probably way under reported.
But it really does not matter as the toll of even one person - from this virus - of only made in China - due to it's strange and uncontrolled food chain markets.
I have said this before.
Where is the Security Council when we need it to debate a global response and make demands of China what it will do to prevent future occurrences.
Over my life time - this is 3rd or 4th virus that originated in China - it's akin to bio terrorism.
All of these viruses appear to have transmitted from wild animals to humans via domesticated animals or a direct transmission.
The only place in the world is this food chain is China.
If nothing is demanded by the Security Council - this virus will pass - only to be confronted by another virus in a couple of decades.
Sure, China will resist calling an emergency Council meeting and might even veto a resolution.
In my industry of oil patch - we have leading and lagging indicators of unsafe practices.
If Wuhan is not the leading indicator of a future if China is not held responsible at UN - I can't think of any better example.
And all these unnecssary deaths of Chinese and foreigners - the worst lagging indicators if you ever saw one.
It's time for the world to demand an explanation and a plan for a safe future from China - that can alone be done at Security Council.
Or we are waiting for another virus.
Whatever China does, about anything, the climate frauds and kooks will try to find fault; and they'll always have some cover from other Sinophobes.
The only sincere point of any contention in China's containment policy is, must it remain until vaccines are developed, then everyone vaccinated? Or, is a slowing spread-- without vaccines, an all clear for resuming normal activity?
The US alternative, until very recently, seemed an actuarial game. With only the elderly and or immune compromised at greatest risk, i.e. those that are already a HC expense (harsh truth).
In the event of vaccine, who gets it first? If The US develops first, will those most vital or susceptible be first? I suppose if China develops first Chinese will be first. Is a nasty scenario possible? Is fostering hate and phobias over climate fraud and or other paranoia a good idea?
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There is something fundamentally, and morally, wrong about the line of thinking depicted by the title of this article. To those who postulate that idea, let me ask this: how much is a person's life?
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This SO typically American. No, the cure vis not worse than the disease. We are going to reap the results of disorganization and toxic individuality.
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Isn’t it obvious that the tests are being delayed in the hopes that the “miraculous” reversal happens with DST and warmer spring weather. Tests are being delayed to support political propaganda.
Not a fan of the Chinese Model but the fact is they averted a Cosmic disaster. They were heavily criticized for locking down Wuhan and continue to be but now we see Lombardy in lockdown.
China might have made out better without a culture of lying. It is moving toward government transparency but citizens have yet to catch up. Ancient beliefs about food and medicine, promises of change hiding stubborn practice, shoddy workmanship. The government decrees and people sneak around those decrees.
More than any other form of media, I depend on the frequently updated NYT maps for insight into the spread of Covid-19. But the maps are deceptive. Minnesota, for example, is completely filled in giving the erroneous impression that a large section of the upper-midwest is doomed. In fact, there is only one confirmed case in Mn.
A better way of presenting the data would be to use a "heat map", in which the frequency of cases is indicated by the shade of a color (on a log scale; darker indicates more cases). To avoid the spatial ambiguity caused by the largeness of Western states, the entire country should be broken down into relatively small equal-sized hexagons (e.g. 100 km on a side). Thus, Mn would show one very pale hexagon centered on Minneapolis and the rest of the state would be white indicating absence - a much more accurate portrayal of the state of the epidemic.
If we're going to beat this, we need to focus on effective communication - data presentation is important!
Maybe whatever epidemiologists are left standing in a year or two can hand out gold medals and booby prizes to the nations of the world.
In the meanwhile, let’s acknowledge that a country that refuses to even characterize the problem is off to a dangerous start. We need widespread and continuous testing right now.
Based on my understanding of virus outbreaks I share Mr. Osterholm’s implied view that China is merely using its martial might to suspend the outbreak. Until a virus works through a population which then develops antibodies to resist it the Sword of Damocles remains suspended. (Or until the April warmth, according to our national “leader”.)
I do not see any role model out there in dealing with the virus.
Not in China, not in Italy, Korea or elsewhere.
So, how to deal with a pandemic in the future?
I have a plan:
What about investing more money in defense of our health (science!) than in military defense?
What about all our brilliant minds from Harvard and Stanford who just “follow the money” and rather start the 17th delivery app or work in “finance” (finance as in Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs) - to create wealth just for themselves but for no one else?
Imagine if - let’s say - just every fourth Silicon Valley company would dedicate itself not to app development (“organic dog food now delivered right at your door step!”) but to fight global diseases and cancer?
What about raising the level of generell health education?
It’s time to move from a just reacting symptoms fighting health system to address the underlying causes.
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Is their government going to ban the live exotic meat markets that created this epidemic in the first place?
Or will there be more of these diseases, and eventually one so lethal a billion or more will die?
What good reasons do we have for trusting the statistics put out by the Chinese government?
Being entirely dependent upon China for the vast majority of our supply chain has proven to be a major national security, economic and public health issue. Corona virus has not caused a "backlash" against globalization as the article's author clumsily pontificated. Rather, the current events surrounding the precarious state of such a globalist economic system has raised valuable and opportune questions about how much a nation can depend upon other nations for it supplies and remain safe during times of crisis. If China faces utter destruction, the United States need not die with her. Globalists like Bill Gates, Bloomberg and Soros have billions of reasons to keep such an system intact notwithstanding the threat it poses to the lives of Americans. And the liberal mass media will mainly defend the corporate interests of the corporations who own, operate and set the agenda for them. But if you can put aside your corporate interests and consider the lives of Americans as worthy of protecting, you might at least be willing to poke holes in your own high subjective claims about globalism.
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Exactly. China should listen to this article and put the economy in front of saving human lives. That surely will stop Western media from criticizing it.
It's good they managed to stop it there, but next time they can learn to not cover everything it up so it doesn't spread around the entire world first.
It seems quite cynical to me that the author has been criticizing the Chinese has been doing too little and too slow and now too much and too costly. You just can’t have it both ways. For all the extra time for the rest of the world to be prepared, we all but waste them entirely. If you look at the speed and quantity of the new cases, the entire world will be facing a very similar situation as China did two months ago. Surely the transparency is much better, but transparency along isn’t going to matter at all if no proportionate actions are being taken. If anything can be learned from China’s draconian while effective measures to combat the disease, learn it. At the end of the day, the virus will not go gentle on us.
1
Ok, let's do an experiment: Unleash the power of the magic marketplace to confront the coronavirus epidemic. Then let's compare the results.
Because according to US propaganda, doing anything else is socialism, and that's bad.
1
As one of top healthcare officials in Chinese government said, "in the beginning they fear us, and now we fear them." As new Covid-19 patients down to double digits in Wuhan, the epicenter of the disease, there is zero occurring in the rest of China. Only the infected patients coming back from out of China.
And Italian government just passed the law to quarantine 16 millions people in norther Italy including several famous cities. They followed the WHO recommendation that China set a good example to control and contain the virus spreading. Exceptional times require exceptional or draconian measures to stop the virus.
Just read news from HK, as we withdraw our troops from Middle East, China is sending an expert team composed of Coronavirus experts with medical supplies to visit Iraq helping them to combat Covid-19. No doubt that it will attract attention and appreciation from Iraqi people. We should do the same.
1
I’m appalled at the way the New York Times (and the mass media in general) is pandering to the wildly out of context fear and obsession surrounding coronavirus, which it has largely CREATED. The actual number of cases are minute when compared with seasonal flu, or other viruses. The recovery rate is extremely high. The media is contributing to a pandemic panic which is completely detached from reality.
The coverage is infinitely worse than the disease.
1
The virus does not have to be "completely eliminated." It only needs to be suppressed for about a year, until a vaccine is deployed. At present, ~30 people per day are dying in China. If the Chinese can keep the death rate down to that level, that will be about 15,000 deaths in all.
In contrast, in a briefing of Epidemiology Estimates By US Hospitals Association, Dr. James Lawler, professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his “best guess” estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US, as follows:
•4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus
•96 million cases overall in the US...
•480,000 deaths
This is what will happen if the U.S. does not quickly implement the kinds of measures China and Italy have implemented.
Does anybody else think that there's a kind of hysteria going around about this? I don't mean to take Trump's line, because I think his administration has buried its head in the sand: we have no testing kits with a month-and-half lead. We also have not tried any of the many drugs we have that combat viruses in that same time. But shutting down whole cities and regions?
Let me put it this way: if we had the media acting as a speaking clock every day saying: in your state there were 10,000 cases of the flu suspected and 1000 confirmed, with 10 deaths (this understates the number, I think), wouldn't we all be very alarmed? But it's about that, if not more. I don't know the figures for this year, but 10,000 plus will die of the flu this year in the US alone. We just don't do this, because it would spread panic.
Think of the deaths worldwide of COVID-19 to date. They're a tiny fraction of the population.
We should be taking all necessary precautions (as we should with the flu each season). Panic serves us poorly. And don't quote mortality percentages for this virus as a reproach: we don't know how many people (countless hundreds of thousands, I would guess) who come down with mild cases or subclinical cases that go entirely unreported.
All the most supported comments argue for more state surveillance and state collection of personal data.
Hilarious.
And the same people hyper-ventilate about Facebook tracking our personal behavior.
Oh, but FB is not the state. It is okay when Dear Father monitors me.
I feel better.
2
We love to unfurl the banner of American 'exceptionalism', especially when a rival and a country we don't like stumbles, but China has done the right thing...at a great sacrifice to its people and economy....following its Confucian ethos. Italy -to its credit- is following China's model.
However, we are offered bumbling incoherent responses and non-actions by an incompetent Administration. Where is our 'exceptionalism' now?
2
In the mean time, the US is completing an "experiment" that is in direct opposition to China and most of the rest of the developed world.
We are testing an extremely limited pool of individuals so that the reported numbers can remain low. We even left a cruise ship stranded off shore so that those infection figures are not added to the total.
When a state governor such as Inslee takes action to control the outbreak our POTUS tries to undermine his efforts by calling him a snake.
Millions of Faux News viewers are being told that it is a democratic hoax to take down Trump and the latest medal of freedom winner, Rush Limbaugh, calls it the common cold.
It will be interesting to see how the US experiment turns out. The American Hospital Association is currently estimating 480,000 US deaths from COVID-19. There were 34,000 flue deaths in 2019.
2
China can't get a break, at least from the West. First they were criticized because they did too little. Now criticized because they are doing too much.
A virologist in Taiwan claims that his genome sequence of the virus can't find a Chinese origin. If he's right, then the virus came into China from a traveler either from China who was returning home or from a foreigner visiting China.
The real issue is how can all counties work together to address this crisis?
The lesson is not who is doing a better job, but that we are all interconnected. Nature is proving this whether we want to hear it or not.
3
Every day I show the map of the US virus cases to my 8th graders. We are keeping score so to speak. Every day the numbers are going up. It is mandatory viewing in my class.
I hope every teacher is using this resource and keeping their students abreast of the situation.
There is a "hygiene rap" video if any teacher needs to show it on YouTube. It has a "catchy" rhythm to it.
Now I am waiting for my school district to communicate with the parents. Nothing yet.
Thankfully we are 1:1 laptops, so the students can take them home and we can use Google classroom for all assignments.
Just in case we go to panic mode and close the schools.
For a country this size with the number of international travelers and the known duration of the disease the number of cases is vanishingly small- as are the number of deaths- except in the Seattle area- which is a public health catastrophe thanks to the Seattle city council and inept Governor.
Why we don’t have numbers like Italy has nothing to do with testing and everything to do with common sense measures taken by this administration, namely restrictions on travel from China that were objected to as racist by Trump’s political opponents.
We are seeing drips and drabs of new cases- nothing consistent with the apocalyptic whining of the media or politicians with an axe to grind.
I am positive they are not testing as much or hiding test results to skew these numbers. Looks what DT is doing here?
Yeah we cannot trust these results.
Quarantine isn't just about disease containment but also about not straining the medical community to it's breaking point. We need to do stop pointing out how this only affects the old... We all know old people. We need to quarantine in order to not over burden our hospitals plain and simple.
Well, here we can already see that politics trump (No pun intended) health here in the USA. I'm not just referring to what we have seen this week in domestic news. More specifically I am referring to the fact that people that have been in China and Iran have to be quarantined, but not people coming from Italy and South Korea. Why not? The answer most likely is that the last 2 countries are our "friends" and "allies", while the Iran and China are not. That's how it is now in our country. Pretty sobering.
I’m disturbed by the use of the photo of the poor woman in the hospital that accompanies this article. I understand that it is important for us to have visualizations of the work the doctors are doing on the front lines. But even covered up, the patient’s face is visible, and she is clearly very ill. How is this not a violation of her privacy? She does not look in a state to have given permission for this photo to be used. I would be deeply upset if this were me or someone I knew.
1
Apparently in China, we know what to do and we are doing it. The price? Whatever.
It’s easy to criticize others. Let’s see how we handle it. Yes it is “we” and not the trump administration, or the Chinese government, or Iran, or any other institutions that are often the subject of criticism in the NYTimes. It is not the time to highlight the differences in ideology or to advance any political agenda. Life itself is on the line. Are we fighting the virus or each other?
My takeaway from this fiasco is that in the USA the economy is more important than the health of its citizens.
Even if I am no friend of the P.R.C., if their draconian policies save some Chinese lives, then I am all for them even if it means that the release of the iPhone 12 will be delayed.
First, the Chinese concealed the viral outbreak, allowing it to grow worse that it may otherwise have. Then, they took highly publicized and vast, sweeping actions. Now, they claim their plan is working and transmission is plummeting.
How many believe what the government of China says?
The belated Chinese action to contain the Covid-19 spread though commendable and worth emulating by others if, really true, yet the same could have sounded more convincing if not preceded by a deliberately spread shroud of secrecy, denial, and inaction.But, better late than never. As the Covid-19 is expanding its footprint across countries and the world is coming to terms with the disease through a combative strategy of preventive and curative efforts, the instinctive reaction of the governments and leaders still remains identical to that of the Chinese authorities I. e. Of studied denial or slow action with a boast of being in full control of the situation though reality might be different. The kind of concerted global effort is required is either missing or lost in the din of pseudo nationalistic clamor and the xenophobic nativist outbirsts.
Scientists have been warning about coming pandemics for a long time. Human patterns of land use change, deforestation, road building, mining, and agricultural intensification are pushing into dwindling wildlife habitat, increasing chances of human infection. Peter Daszak, a zoologist who studies the connections between human and wildlife health, said that “It’s our everyday way of going about business on the planet that seems to be driving this.” In response to the Coronavirus, China, (officially, at least for now) banned the trade of wild animals as food, but not for "medicinal use.” The use of animal products in Chinese traditional medicine is driving a surge in illegal trafficking of wildlife. The growing use of threatened species in traditional Chinese medicines has accounted for more than three-quarters of the trade in endangered wildlife products in Hong Kong over the past 5 years. Last year, record volumes of pangolin scales, rhino horns, and tiger parts, were seized by authorities in Hong Kong. As long as China encourages and promotes traditional medicine using animal parts from threatened and endangered animals, the illegal wildlife trade will flourish. The Chinese people need to start questioning and raising awareness about these practices to a much greater degree, and move toward more effective and sustainable and effective "cures" and products. Herbal products are highly effective, and they do not cause viral pandemics.
1
Considering the CCP history of tightly controlled news dissemination we are likely getting an opaque view of what is happening in China. The main goal of Chinese leaders is to maintain total control first and foremost. They have covered up the death of millions in the past to do so.
None of this will work in the absence of an effective vaccine.
Just stop panicking for a moment and run the numbers.
At least the Chinese have leaders who can act swiftly once the scope of a crisis is known.f
I do not condone their heavy-handed tactics in removing people forcibly from their homes or arresting those who provided truthful reports of such violent actions. But nevertheless they acted to close off sources of the virus being transported, swiftly erected new hospitals and repurposed buildings as places of quarantine.
The Virus is threat to all of us. China’s actions helped us all. It slowed the movement of the Virus. And gave many nations time to prepare.
We need to give credit where credit is due. Despite disagreeing with the heavy-handed ways of carrying out virus-control methods which, in a free society, would be impossible.
But what to do when the virus truly rampages our nation? When people possibly are dying in the streets - here?
These questions may come back to haunt us.
Only in America.
As a doc, first the facts about epidemics:
- Social distancing decreases human to human infectious disease spread.
- 2% or even 1%dead are a lot of dead, if it happens quickly. Life is fatal but not all at once.
- it's not just about the dead but also how easily transmitted and how sick. Many severely ill at once cannot be managed.
- When medical services are overwhelmed, more die, including from other diseases.
- While infection can't always be stopped, buying time is critical. Vaccines don't happen overnight.
- Data helps. Funny how we worry about Chinese data but can't or won't collect our own.
In all fairness to Ms Qin and the naysayers quoted, I myself, didn't *get* what was going on until yesterday after reading another NYT article. For weeks I have been ranting that we need to take action.Yesterday I read that NYC schools basically can't close because of the social cost, down to feeding kids. China's measures are hard for Americans to fathom, because *we* can't survive them. We lack the safety net, infrastructure, community and access to health care to even make a real go at containment and mitigation. We really can't afford it. It's what many Americans face all the time. "I don't know how much treatment would help, but the cost will ruin me". Many can't even afford a sick day. For America, the cure would kill us, so we have no choice but to bear the full brunt of this epidemic and hope for the best. To take it on the chin and pray. God help us.
2
Only in America.
As a doc, first the facts about epidemics:
- Social distancing decreases human to human infectious disease spread.
- 2% or even 1%dead are a lot of dead, if it happens quickly. Life is fatal but not all at once.
- it's not just about the dead but also how easily transmitted and how sick. Many severely ill at once cannot be managed.
- When medical services are overwhelmed, more die, including from other diseases.
- While infection can't always be stopped, buying time is critical. Vaccines don't happen overnight.
- Data helps. Funny how we worry about Chinese data but can't or won't collect our own.
In all fairness to Ms Qin and the naysayers quoted, I myself, didn't *get* what was going on until yesterday after reading another NYT article. For weeks I have been ranting that we need to take action.Yesterday I read that NYC schools basically can't close because of the social cost, down to feeding kids. China's approach is hard for Americans to fathom, because *we* can't survive them. We lack the safety net, infrastructure, community and access to health care to even make a real go at containment and mitigation. We really can't afford it. It's what many Americans face all the time. "I don't know how much treatment would help, but the cost will ruin me". Many can't even afford a sick day. For America, the cure would kill us, so we have no choice but to bear the full brunt of this epidemic and hope for the best. To take it on the chin and pray. God help us.
If China was so willing to let their economy grind to a near halt, their internal evidence about the virulent and lethal nature of the virus must have been even worse than the published numbers.
I don't know how the US can avoid a strict quarantine when the Dartmouth debacle demonstrated that even bright young medical students will believe that their immediate desires are above the wellbeing of the community.
This is mirrored, over and over, in the U.S. psyche. Climate change is the long term result of this mindset, COVID-19 is just a taste of what's to come.
People do, in fact, require a government of laws to act in the best interest of the common good.
The global reaction to the spread of Coronavirus is hysterical. The disease is slightly more lethal than the common flu. In a healthy person, the mortality rate is 0.4 percent, which about the same as the common flu. The extraordinary measures being taken by authorities in China and Italy to shut down entire cities may have a catastrophic effect on the global economy. Urging people with underlying health issues to self quarantine is the most logical approach. My sense is that quarantine will fail and may have to be abandoned. Educate people, be transparent, use common sense, and only then you would have contained the virus.
The global reaction to the spread of Coronavirus is hysterical. The disease is slightly more lethal than the common flu. In a healthy person, the mortality rate is 0.4 percent, which about the same as the common flu. The extraordinary measures being taken by authorities in China and Italy to shut down entire cities may have a catastrophic effect on the global economy.
Urging people with underlying health issues to self quarantine is the most logical approach. My sense is that quarantine will fail and may have to be abandoned. Educate people, be transparent, use common sense, and only then you would have contained the virus.
It's amazing how the media will challenge everything Trump says but regurgitate propaganda from China without any questions. China has been lying from the beginning and continues to do so with the blessings of WHO.
The media has also given Congress a pass on how they dragged their feet on appropriating funds to fight coronavirus. They had to get in their pork and pet projects.
This is why people are fearful and try to find information from other sources. Political figures can't be trusted and neither can the media with its own agenda.
China data improved the day after the leaders said they had to restart the economy. I would not be surprised if numbers are not correct. If all local governments want to look good, they may not report full numbers. In any case, even if China curbs the disease, they are responsible for the start. They cannot really change history. All in all we were lucky: last December they had a few cases of plague in the North.
Some time later, when the epidemic has truly been contained and the impact forgotten, I wouldn't be surprised if I were to read an article on the 'Chinese human rights violations'' during the containment. This will be despite the fact that the world as a whole was benefitted by the same 'violations.'
2
Economies can revive, people can't.
Fire with fire-a step backward now and two steps forward later.
7
If China is truly making progress against this disease then we should learn of the following:
Evidence that their factories are ramping up production again and that the supply chain of products to the rest of the world is no longer disrupted.
4
With or without forced Uighur labor?
2
@Zareen I get your point .
China approach may seem too radical and drastic, but we need to remember that the goal is not to bring the number of infected people down to zero but to slow down the spreading of the disease. It’s a math problem with even the best health care systems unable to provide for treatment and beds if everybody gets infected at the same time. In the north of Italy that’s precisely the challenge right now, to provide treatment for everybody in need at the same time. Hospitals, which are some of the best in the world, are running out of beds and are considering moving patients to other regions in Italy where the virus has not spread yet. Isolation and widespread testing has proven to be so far the most efficient way to contain the virus while we buy time to find a vaccine. I am worried by the lack of both measures in NYC right now. Talks keep focusing on the consequences on the market, instead of the consequences on people’ lives basically admitting that the economy is what is driving every political decision at the moment. On top of being ethically questionable, this approach seems to forget that if an epidemic crisis had to occur in a city like NY the consequences of inaction would be far greater then drastic preventive actions not only on people lives but on the economy as well.
13
If the coronavirus did not come along, something else would have happened at some point. The next event could start somewhere else.
The weakness that was exposed not only has to do with how China governs itself. It showed how brittle the global systems are to natural but unexpected threats. It also showed that some Western countries had become COMPLACENT in how they run themselves.
The plans of MBAs are often made in a vacuum. They make assumptions about what tolerances the model can handle without ever stepping outside of their offices. With the ever growing pressures for profitability, the tolerances have become paper thin.
ANY disruption causes problems but the people at HQ are NOT the ones that have to deal with the consequences. The lack of input from the field is why this keeps happening (yes, the coronavirus thing is only the most recent and largest disruption but it is far from the only one in the past decade).
And, like the risk analyses that failed in 2008 due to hidden flaws in the markets, this event exposes the issues in the global markets OUTSIDE the financial system. This is a stress test of both it and each country's governance. IMHO, some have failed already even if they don't want to admit it.
8
On Tuesday I returned home from a first-line hospital in my city and while there I witnessed an institution woefully unprepared for Coronavirus. The hospital was overwhelmed—shoulder to shoulder in the ER, most every hospital room filled. Just a simple call for transport meant waiting hours. Housekeeping did only a cursory job of sanitizing the room. It took five hours for a routine test in radiology to be completed. Nursing staff were always kind, but obviously frazzled. All this before a single case of Coronavirus had been confirmed in my state. Curious, I asked a member of hospital staff if there had been any special training for or preparations made for a Coronavirus outbreak and he said he thought there might have been an email. If I wasn’t worried before, I am now. I can’t help but be concerned about how an already overly-taxed health care system in Oklahoma will effectively deal with this deadly pandemic.
17
We are facing a worse-case scenario in several ways:
Hard to detect? Check. Some cases are mild, and it appears that people are contagious before they show symptoms.
Easily transmissible: Check. Apparently it is transmitted more easily than influenza or rhinoviruses.
Deadly: Not so fast. The death rate is high by so-called normal standards, and this a tragedy, but it could be far worse. The next pandemic could be 10 or 20 percent fatal. What do we do then? We had our chance with MERS and SARS but we didn't figure it out then, so we're learning (or not) now.
My bet is that the future of this virus will track influenza: either we'll figure out how to beat both, or we'll have to live with both.
Alternatively, this one could rage through the population then fizzle out when it fails to evolve like seasonal influenza.
Some day we might learn how to stop them in their tracks but we aren't there yet.
11
@mlbex
Will those infected and then become well, be susceptible to reinfection as easily as with common cold or other flu? Or, will some immunity develop to this virus? So that the young now exposed will develop enough resistance to prevent later-in-life serious illness? Or, every flu season will numerous deaths result?
1
@Jabin : Flus and colds evolve into forms that our immune systems don't recognize. COVID-19 might do this or not. If it doesn't, it will fizzle out after it has run its course. See my second to last paragraph.
1
As long as 5 or 6 billion humans survive we should be okay.
One can see many advantages with what China has done – even if they can’t really eradicate the virus. First, they’ve bought themselves time, which they seem to have used effectively to prepare for further spread, like ramping up testing and expanding hospital beds. Second, it will shortly take the international focus away from them – they will no longer be the front-runner for the number of infected. Finally, they will have bragging rights – abroad and, most importantly, at home. I suspect they haven’t wasted their time in other endeavours as well, such as working on vaccines and anti-virals. Yes, the cost to China may seem high for now – but in the end, it’s an investment that might pay handsome dividends once the dust settles.
11
@Francis That is also scary part. The system that appears to be effective now is the same system that allowed the start of the epidemic.
4
@Hang First of all, there is no definitive evidence yet to support your claim that the Chinese system enabled the start of the epidemic.
Second of all, people and governments do make mistakes, what matters is what they do to correct that mistake.
Last but not least, people or government that doesn't learn from other's mistake, and those who turn a blind eye to a growing crisis, like what the Trump administration is doing, is the most "scary" ones.
China took the right measures to contain the
virus. Specific numbers may not be accurate
but the trend is down. Imagine if Chinese from
Hubei province were allowed to move around
in China and the tourists allowed to travel,
as they do in millions, the number of cases
would have been in millions. USA itself would
have not 400 cases but 40,000 as many
Chinese tourists come here and the shortage
of test kits would not have allowed the tests
of all the tourists coming here in millions.
Sometime harsh measures are just that-harsh-but have to be taken. The most important
harsh measure China can take is to ban the
the market in wild animals. Chinese need to
change their food preferences.
11
@s.khan They have already banned the sale of wild animals in Jan 2020 in response. The problem is that some other countries still consume bats, like Manado in Indonesia and Ghana in Africa. The issue with bats, is that they carry many species of viruses.
Also, there are many countries that also take raw food. What happens if we get a fish virus from sashimi someday?
6
@s.khan - Then why did they criticize the US decision to ban flights? They (and you) can’t have it both ways, praising them for lockdowns and restrictions and criticizing others for doing the same thing.
China's number are hard to believe. Beijing is around 400 cases, hardly increasing for weeks. Everywhere else, a few hundred cases are enough to spawn new cases at light speed.
Even if it's true that the outbreak is contained within Hubei, such measures won't happen in the US.
Eventually, we will have millions of cases, actually most of the population. Of course, this includes the mild and asymptomatic that will never be counted.
3
@theirllbelight I worry a ban like that will just create black markets that are unregulated and more likely to create more disease outbreaks. A shift in chinese culture is necessary.
@theirllbelight Yep, that is how good they are at controlling the spread of the virus in Beijing, every case is being discovered and dealt with promptly. It might be hard for you to wrap your head around it, considering how poorly the Trump administration is dealing with the outbreak, but you better believe it.
Little mention of group immunity after recovery, in part because data is probably scant. If enough people develop immunity post Covid-19, it should slow the rate of infection and increase the rate of recovery. Then hopefully we will have a functional vaccine that people actually get rather than subscribe to a fantasy. I am not a scientist but the history of epidemics has this trajectory.
However, with the U.S. lack of testing, we will not know the rate of infection. There is an antibody test which again no one mentions. More on this please.
7
@poslug : What antibody test are you referring to? One that shows you are immune? Whatever antibody test exists, it would be helpful if you would link to it.
China may be experiencing pain but the fact is that it is achieving control of the epidemic and has shown the way for the rest of the world. Chinese economy may be in a standstill now but when the rest of the world will be battling and going into standstill, it will be first off the block into the recovery phase.
6
Has anyone asked why the mortality rate for Covid-19 currently is estimated as more than the seasonal flu? Perhaps it is because Covid-19 patients are being hospitalized in places where they are exposed to other contagions, whereas people with the flu typically recuperate at home.
How about this: Why not just have people recover from Covid-19 at home, just as they do with the flu? That way they are not exposed to germ-filled environments such as hospitals. I bet the mortality rate for Covid-19 would go down. Has anyone suggested this to the World Health Organization?
2
@Metaphor
Er...this is already happening. Not all Coronavirus cases are being hospitalized. It depends on the patient and the seriousness of the infection. You need to get up to speed pal.
@Metaphor It's NOT the flu. Don't view SARS-Cov-2 as like the flu. It's 20x as lethal and 3x as a contagious. Google "cytokine storm" to find out why. It depends on the specifics of each individual's immune system. The later the initial immune response comes, the stronger the overreaction will be.
The body's own unhinged immune response in the lungs can be fatal. People literally suffocate.
1
People are being hospitalized for respiratory failure: oxygen needed, respirators eventually. Not home care territory.
This might be a test case for a more sustainable economy. What happens if improving our green technology isn't enough, and we need to do less? What would happen to the economy if we took fewer car trips, even in our electric cars? What if we had to take at most of our vacations somewhere nearby instead of flying off to the other side of the world?
The parallels aren't perfect. We'd still go to movies, sporting events and other social gatherings, and we'd still eat out as often as we did before the virus. Supply chains would still operate, although hopefully many of them would be shorter. But the effect on the transportation sector is a bellwether; when we live more sustainable, it will take a hit.
When we do become sustainable, unless we find endless free energy, we will have to slow down, and figure out how to do so without tanking the economy.
5
@mlbex Yes, I've been thinking about what the possible positives might be too..... what changes we're making right now might continue past the emergencies.
@SB : My fear is that the necessary changes will tank the economy because there no way to stay prosperous without raging overconsumption. With the virus these changes could be temporary and the economy can use pent up demand to bounce back. For sustainability the changes will need to be permanent.
1
What does sustainable mean? It seems to be a catch all word that’s used when people or groups have no idea how to solve something. With 5 billion plus humans on the planet, nothing is sustainable.
Earlier version censored:
As a doc, first the facts about epidemics:
- Social distancing decreases human to human virus transmission
- 2% or even 1%dead are a lot of dead, if it happens quickly. Life is fatal but not all at once.
- it's not just about the dead but also how easily transmitted and how sick. Many severely ill at once cannot be managed.
- When medical services are overwhelmed, more die, including from other diseases.
- While infection can't always be stopped, buying time is critical. Vaccines don't happen overnight.
- Data helps. Funny how we worry about Chinese data but can't or won't collect our own.
In all fairness to Ms Qin and the naysayers quoted, I myself, didn't *get* what was going on until yesterday after reading another NYT article. For weeks I have been ranting that we need to take action.Yesterday I read that NYC schools basically can't close because of the social cost, down to feeding kids. China's measures are hard for Americans to fathom, because *we* can't survive them. We lack the safety net, infrastructure, community and access to health care to even make a real go at containment and mitigation. We really can't afford it. It's what many Americans face all the time. "I don't know how much treatment would help, but the cost will ruin me". Many can't even afford a sick day. For America, the cure would kill us, so we have no choice but to bear the full brunt of this epidemic and hope for the best. To take it on the chin and pray. God help us.
48
@Pigsy : The government has to set up free clinics, guaranteed wage replacement, and food distribution programs, and they need to do it yesterday. They also need isolation centers (FEMA trailers anyone?)
But you're right. They won't.
5
@Pigsy. It's not that China has any better safety net either, their population just knows to make do with less in times of crisis and there is more extended family around to help. When schools closed in China, families were on their own to feed their own kids. That's the expectation in China. US society has long lost that Darwinian instinct and the expectation is to have children who parents can't even afford to feed without public schools, how warped is that?
@Pigsy
Good comment! I'd add that CDC is dragging their feet to "confirm" the "presumptive" cases. (Probably, Trump told them to keep the numbers low). They have tested 1500 total, South Korea is testing 10,000 a day.
Presumptive really measn positive.
Loss of the most basic sense of security, of jobs, with many
business being threatened with running out of cash. Hopefully
these lock down restrictions are being imposed with an aura of compassion, patience and generosity. This is how people can
receive them with the authentic teaching that that they are temporary necessities given the uncertainty of how devastating
the consequences of less severe restrictions could be in dealing
with this crisis.
Have we lost all sense of proportion? The mortality rate for Covid-19 may or may not end up being higher than the seasonal flu. More time is needed to calculate the final statistics.
In the meantime, the seasonal flu infects tens of millions of humans every year and at least 1% of them die. That's a lot of people dying from the flu. If we really want to protect everyone, the entirety of humanity should hibernate like bears for four or five months out of the year.
Is anyone suggesting banning all human contact for the duration of the flu season every year? I didn't think so.
2
@Metaphor
The seasonal flu usually has a fatality rate of 0.1%, not 1%.
No one really knows the true statistics for this outbreak, and we will not get reliable data for several months.
Based on the incomplete data we have, 80% of those infected have mild disease or are asymptomatic. 15% need hospitalization and 5% need to be in an ICU, hooked up to a ventilator. Anywhere between 1% to 3% die.
If we are lucky, this outbreak may end up being no more lethal than the seasonal flu. But we don't know that yet. What I do know that the city or town you live in does not have enough ICU beds or ventilators for 5% of its population. No place on earth does.
11
@A Cynic
The WHO put the fatality rate from those infected at 3.5% and this is borne out by the numbers from the two countries where they have had large outbreaks and we have reasonably reliable numbers (China and Italy). Right now the outbreaks in the US are small and contained. Prevention is better than cure.
2
@Metaphor
It’s also easier to transmit. So not only are the number of people who have to go to the hospital because of the severity much higher but there will be more cases in a shorter period of time. More cases means more people out from work means greater economic impact than the flu. Overwhelmed medical services means more people dying than the flu.
2
After reading numerous comments I keep wondering about the statistics of the emerging epidemic.
I understand there is still some discussion of what the death rate is for people that are treated in the hospital. The reported range is about 0.5 - 3 percent.
Moreover, for most of those that become ill, the illness is mild. This concerns about 80% of those affected.
Because of the high survival, the disease would according to some be mild.
The other 20% becomes seriously ill and requires hospitalization. How much care (time in hospital, money) is required so that a patient survives?
Many people (40%?) cannot afford health care insurance or a few days off from work. Medical bills are the major cause of bankruptcy. So even if people recover, they may still be seriously affected moneywise. Moreover, many businesses, large and small, with many workers, may also be affected.
Note that the government could help with financial assistance, such as loans and credits. How much would that cost?
@What'sNew
The WHO put the figure at 3.5%.
It seems that following China’s example for fighting the spread of this virus has for the most part been dismissed by Americans. Must people believe the fact that Chinese mishandled their response to the virus in the first few weeks is enough to entirely disregard their current containment protocol—but this is now a global emergency—and like it or not, who has more experience with this Coronavirus than the Chinese?Another argument I’ve heard is that since viruses are invisible the Chinese can’t possibly claim they have contained Covid-19—but data based on millions—not a few hundred—test results (if reliable) indicates that viral transmission in China has indeed slowed. What America needs right now is time—time to respond more effectively to what is certain to become a devastating health emergency. If following China’s protocol only buys us a few weeks and several hundred lives, it is worth implementing. The lukewarm response Americans are now witnessing is unforgivable when a more aggressive—even Draconian approach—has shown to be successful in China.
14
@Angela Minton
Actually citizens here are already do some of these virus containment behaviors. Sports is now considering holding games without crowds watching. Music festivals are being cancelled. Businesses are telling people to work from home.
In a free society people often decide to refrain from being among crowds all by themselves.
1
In the weeks when it was spreading and making its way here, the Trump federal government dithered and played down the risk. They are as much at fault here as the Chinese gov is over there.
@Angela Minton wrote: “. . . a more aggressive—even Draconian approach—has shown to be successful in China.“
There is no evidence to support that statement. There is no evidence that the virus has slowed its spread at all in China.
I was very impressed when China quickly built new hospitals to quarantine patients, within just a few days. But then last week the building collapsed. So who knows how well they’re doing.
6
@Sanjay just for clarification the building that fell is in a completely different city. It was a hotel used for quarantine, not a new hospital.
22
@Sanjay No, the new hospital that was built did no collapse. A hotel being used to quarantine people did.
@Sanjay The collapsed building was not one of the newly built ones, it was an older hotel in Fujian province. The new hospitals are in Hubei province.
Treat it like the common flu. IF you are elderly or have an underlying condition then yes as hard as it may sound you may need take more extreme precautions to avoid this thing. If you are young and fit go about your daily lives but know this is in the community and take additional measure (washing and sanitizing) that you might anyway do after riding the subway and know that if you contract this you'll almost certainly recover.
Panicking and Locking communities down might stay on top of it for a while but it will flare back up the minute one person brings it back.
Let it run its course. There is no other sensible option. Hopefully it will go away of its own volition with the changing seasons.
9
yes there is a sensible option. do what epidemiologists recommend: aggressively track the patients contacts and isolate and treat them. buy time till medication and vaccine is worked out. this worked for Ebola. And, by the way, the Spanish flu is called that way because Spain was not suppressing reporting of cases. Spain was neutral in WWI and did not need to keep up morale. Probably the Spanish flu originated in some overcrowded military base in France, Britain or the US. There very poor quarantine for the warfighters at the time.
1
@Hjb except that it has a whopping 15% death rate amongst the very elderly and already ill. Prudence is good but letting it run amok is deadly.
@Hjb
Apparently, you know more than China, Japan, Italy and the CDC.
What is yet to be answered is what happens when China and other countries attempt to return to normalcy. When do you make that call? Do you have to go at least 2 weeks without a new confirmed case? Since they suspect that many cases are going undetected with most being mild or asymptomatic what happens if there are new flareups? At some point we are going to have to let this thing run its course without extreme measures. There is so much still not known about it. There are experts contending that summer will not cause the end of it like with the flu.
I know people do not like to hear this and I certainly am not advocating for death but we keep trying to beat nature and if we have proven anything is that we are horrible at it. We want to have everything, change everything, have massive population growth and expect that the planet will simply keep on operating as it has for hundreds of thousands of years. Amazing that it has only taken us a little under 200 years to completely prove that hypothesis wrong.
Nature has it's own way of cleaning things up and it always wins. Instead of functioning with nature we keep trying to beat it. Ultimately we will lose. The question is if by losing we become extinct as a species.
8
The effort will fail because a virus is invisible unless it is placed under microscope. It is already too late.Protect the vulnerable and move on.
4
So how do you propose to protect the vulnerable? Move all people over 65 to quarantine camps?
China's way is to contain the spread by quarantine. Italy is following their lead. What will the US do? The testing debacle where the WHO testing kits were dismissed in favour of "superior" CDC kits shows a country determined to do it the US way.
So far the US approach is not looking good.
When SARS was contained, the foundation work to continue research into this type of corona virus all but ceased. When there is no sense of emergency, more current"deadly" diseases take center stage. Given that this is a zoonotic and novel virus, I think it will continue to be aggressive and may eventually just become another seasonal pathogen in our lives. Efforts for containment will help prevent a percentage of the population from getting it, but until a decent vaccine can be proved to work, it very well may be the "great equalizer"-the elderly who are kept artificially alive by modern medicine will be more prone to fatalities. The possible antibody dependent enhancement aspect of the virus may be its MO, and it may be that past exposure to similar viruses could be a severity factor.
No one wants to get a bad cold, yet there are always bugs floating around, everywhere we go. Yes, this one is different, and part of the fear is that it is just that. The vulnerable are continually at risk, and this one adds yet another element. But eventually we have to realize that it may be here to stay. The darn thing probably doesn't even know what direction it will take, but it's showing signs of wanting to co-exist, big time.
We should be vigilant, but to be overly so can bite us. We have to remember that in order to be scientifically proactive, we need to have a decent economy. A hard scale to balance indeed.
If you want to protect the vulnerable, do what you feel is necessary.
2
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. The Chinese approach seems to be working in a huge society that was particularly vulnerable to the spread of the virus. If the WHO estimate of the fatality rate of 3.5% proves correct (and it's being borne out in China and Italy) then China was facing a death rate running into the millions had the virus spread uncontrolled across their population of 1.4 billion. All the petty carping and hair splitting collapses in the face of this potential exposure.
The Italian government now seem to be following the same route and inevitably it's producing the same grumbling but their extreme actions are justified in order to protect the physical safety of their citizens. It's very much a case of history repeating itself. A few months ago I read a book titled Florence under siege; surviving the plague in an early modern city about the isolation of Florence and other Italian cities during a 17th century plague.
And it's not as if we are not using the same isolation tactics on a much smaller scale here in the US which we have the luxury of doing because our outbreaks are much smaller. Let's hope it stays that way and despite the blundering and mixed messaging of the administration the American healthcare structure and medical bureaucracy at federal and state level is probably robust enough to deal with this.
23
@John
I want to thank you for your comment - finally someone is commenting on this topic in a sensible manner. People often have hard time understanding the actions and policies taken in other countries under very different or difficult situations. When facing a choice between the life/death of people and economy of a country, I would think most people would agree that life/death of people is the first priority.
13
@John
We only know the death rate in China based on what they reported without any independent verification. How do we know millions didn't die?
1
That is not what I see in the comments and the author talks about personal freedoms. This not the ordinary flu, this could be like the Spanish Flu. As an 83 year my response would be that no cruise ship would return to a US port until April 1st and everyone was cleared. Air travel would be like after 9/11. None. No matter what happens the Times is going to write a critical review.
1
For decades, the CDC, UN, and WHO have warned repeatedly that one of the great challenges facing us is pandemics. They've urged us to practice a higher level of preparedness, invest in healthcare,and take preventative measures like eradicating poverty and hunger, two potent vectors when it comes to spreading disease.
With malice --grounded in greed-- aforethought, we've done none of those things. What? Did people really think we were going to get away with it? I was one of many to raise the alarm when DJT savaged the funding for all of the organizations I listed. This was a disaster in the making but it's akin to the image I've invoked repeatedly in this presidency: If we are the damsel in distress on the tracks, the train bearing down on us is going one mile an hour and we aren't even tied. Move.
We've lost all sense of self-preservation. Having refused to do the logical things in the moment, we will, like China, now have to pay an enormous, catastrophic price to clean up and contain. Pandemics always wreak economic havoc because
quarantine is the only sure way to contain them. You cannot do a "little" quarantine here and there; that's not how it works. And if in doubt, do it earlier rather than later. The point is to contain spread *before it starts* not when it's raging. Ultimately, it was the only thing that helped stop the spread in 1918. China did the right thing. Will we?
We are an obstinate species that refuses to learn. That stubbornness is becoming deadly.
24
@AhBrightWings This is the best summarization of the big picture I have read yet in the comments.
1
It's a trade off. You could quarantine a country -- and stop a communicable disease that spreads human to human -- that action could shut it down entirely, at least until it returns.
But the economic cost would be huge. In a huge capitalist state like US, damage would be huge. Let's say we quarantined for 1 month, that would inflict damage of greater than 8% of the economy. Why? Well, during one month many large tech companies may be able to continue doing whatever they do, but many small businesses would go bankrupt and millions might lose jobs. Those businesses and jobs wouldn't come back immediately. The travel industry - already reeling -- would crater. Even an a high tech giant like apple would be battered if no one could go to their stores and they couldn't get components from overseas.
So, then the question becomes -- would less draconian measures work almost as well? That takes some analysis, but, if the transmission and mortality rates are not much worse than a bad flu season and if the virus isn't an aerosol but one that requires close exposure to an infected person, then self quarantining of sick, people, social distancing, travel restrictions, handwashing might prove as effective as a quarantine -- and both approaches would face the possibility of the return of the virus. Obviously, we don't have the answers to most of these key questions, but I think we need to think things through before we take panicky actions.
9
@Ralphie ' if the transmission and mortality rates are not much worse than a bad flu season ....obviously, we don't have the answers to most of these key questions..'
We don't have definitive answers, but we do know for certain that the transmission and mortality rates are much, much worse than a bad flu season.
4
@Felix Pepper no we don't. You'd like to believe that for maybe political reasons, but we don't have enough data yet.
@Ralphie Just look at what is happening in Wuhan and you would have an idea what would happen without early and decisive action. There will simply not be enough ICU beds or ventilators to help all those in need. And healthcare workers will drop like flies when they run out of protective gear. When that happens, I bet the hit on the economy will be many times worse than the effect of the draconian measures. Don't let the statistics fool you into complacency. If you are conservative and figure 10% of the US population will be infected, and this is extremely optimistic given a population without any acquired immunity to this novel virus (unlike the flu), you will have 30 million sick people, of which 4.5 million will require high dependency care, 1.5 million will need ICU admission. If you are again very conservative and figure an average cost of $20,000 per patient (an ICU stay will easily increase this 10 fold), you are talking about 90 Billion dollars. Many of these patients will have no way of paying this money back. For reference, in 2015, there are less than 100,000 ICU beds in the whole country.
1
Their response to the virus is draconian by all accounts yes, but necessary. What good is civil liberties if half the population is infected? In times of war and social unrest, democracies will impose martial law, curfews, and incarcerate citizens who look like the enemy to protect the country. The Chinese leadership is treating COV-19 as a threat to the lives of its people and to the social order and pulling all stops to contain it. It's draconian to us because our leaders aren't taking this threat seriously and treating it as another case of the season flu.
43
@Michael I can't agree that this is not being taken seriously. We got caught with our pants down, and are playing catch-up because no one saw this coming. I don't have any answers on how to contain, let alone treat. It might be like the diseases of the past: plague, polio, smallpox, etc. We will either stop it or learn to live with it until we can stop it.
This disease is not containable, it’s wishful thinking to think otherwise. Maybe it could have been right at the start but not now and the measures being taken to contain it are having a catastrophic affect on local, national and the global economy and that is going to wreak far more havoc than the disease ever could. Time to rethink our approach, too late to build fences.
4
@Sohrab Batmanglidj certainly not containable in a country where licking shrine gates is considered acceptable and infected government officials cough their way through interviews claiming the problem was under control.
This isn’t Iran.
@Sohrab Batmanglidj it’s not all or nothing. Slowing the spread could keep our healthcare system from being completely overrun. Slowing the pace would save lives
2
Of course quarantines work to contain the spread of contagious diseases, if properly implemented. Which partly relates to government action, but also compliance of individuals. It is the society working together, not only the government.
Anyway, the Chinese government shouldn't be too eager to claim credit for containment. The contagion began in the first place due to the poor food sanitation practices in their markets, plus suppression of information in the early days of the plague.
15
Ms Qin asks a very important question that may be answerable using available data: "Will the virus flare again when children return to classrooms and workers to factories, and commuters start taking buses and subways." The answer depends on how long an infected person remains contagious, and how long do they remain contagious after they test negative. I assume that as testing becomes more extensive and routine, the answers will emerge out of data on large populations which is more reliable than control tests performed in ICUs and labs. I expect that an infected person will retain a viral load until he/she has been treated with an antiviral. It is reasonable to expect that a person will become non contagious once the person tests negative. So, the Chinese approach to control the spread of the disease seems to be effective, since both the antiviral and test kits are expected to be available over the next few months.
5
@Democrat It appears that no confirmed case has been seen in anybody under 15 years old.
That is highly unusual- and virtually unreported.
I wonder why- doesn’t fit the narrative?
Indeed they have. I believe you mean no deaths of anyone under 18 have been reported. I recall a nine month old had it in Hong Kong back in January.
China's strategy may be taking the notion of 'cutting off one's nose to spite one's face' maybe a bit too far as it implements the notion of 'cutting off one's head' to achieve a much broader result, though this broader result has seemingly been achieved by implementing the extreme initiatives of population containment by locking down whole populations within some provinces 'in place' and implementing measures to restrict travel to hundreds of millions of its citizens and foriegners.
With the results they've seen thus far are so convincing they appear to warrant their implementing such extreme measures, especially in light of them publicly admitting they were initially guilty of a rather lackadaisical response when first confronted with the burgeoning virus.
3
This epidemic, being a once in one hundred year occurrence, is an extraordinary challenge to epidemiologists, economists, and policy makers alike. In the present global context there is virtually no precedent in modern times. The global economy and fluid movements of people across the globe didn’t exist to the same extent one hundred years ago as today.
On the one extreme end of response (China, e.g.) a lockdown could so cripple an economy that the ability to continue to respond to the outbreak could be hampered. Consequent declining economic circumstances has its own adverse health and social effects. On the other hand, it’s relatively certain that doing nothing would be a health disaster with certain but “unknown known” long-term consequences.
The public health community along with economists and other social scientists need to closely look at how different countries are responding and assess the relative beneficial/adverse effects of different policy actions.
With the population of the world that is 6 times that at the time of the 1918 flu pandemic, and growing rapidly, it is almost certain that more zoonotic infections that reach epidemic proportions will occur in the coming years. Each outbreak will involve viruses with unique patterns of infectivity and virulence.
We must take this moment to learn as much as we can about the dynamics of this epidemic so we don’t bungle future responses. It will happen again.
9
This is all absurd hysteria. Essentially, this coronavirus is the equivalent of a moderate or slightly more severe strain of flu, and certainly not a virulent flu like the 1918 Spanish flu. Flu kills millions each year, and what is happening now is that the world has added another relatively mild disease to the burden. This is not ebola, it is a disease that may be fatal (but seldom is) only for the elderly or those already in extremely bad health--just like influenza. The chances of this duplicating the same death toll as caused by common influenza annually are slim, and even if that happens it should hardly present dire consequences. A rational government policy would be for healthy people to avoid contact the elderly and the infirm as they are the only ones really in danger. Otherwise, continue pretty much as normal.
The truly infectious disease here is hysteria, and that is spreading out of control.
21
First, they are trying to avoid another flu - cause as you point out, its deadly!
Second, of those who dint die, many still have to get medical treatment than the flu. That strains resources and endangers doctors, which strains resources. It’s not great to treat this like the flu.
9
@Chuck French Yesterday, NY times reported that worldwide infections reached 100,000 and no of deaths reached 3,400, making the current fatality rate approximately 3.4%, quite close to the WHO estimate of 3.5%. Note that the bigger these number get, the more reliable they become. A respiratory virus with a fatality rate of 3.4% or close to it (e.g., greater than 3%) is not a garden variety flu, whose fatality rate is about 0.1%. It is over thirty times more lethal!
18
@Chuck French
The problem is the sheer number of cases and how quickly it spreads horrify people. They don't consider that having the virus may have little to no effect on them. Most people do just fine.
I will avoid this virus just as I avoided the norovirus, which closed my child's school for a few days, and the way I would avoid a local outbreak of the flu.
During the 2017-2018 flu season, an estimated 80,000 Americans died. That's the highest death rate in decades. Having had pneumonia once, I took measures to avoid the flu then, just as I will do now.
1
When we talk about lives saved, we also need to think about at whose cost? People in Wuhan die because of the lockdown due to their lack of access to medical help. Had the city remained open, could more people be saved? Why mortality rate in Wuhan is so much higher than that in other cities is because there’s not enough hospital beds and doctors to treat the sick in Wuhan. Of course there’s the risk of people getting infected by those who leave Wuhan, but how many? I guess these are the questions we need to ask and think about. It’s easy for those who are not in lockdown to say that the government did the right thing. Don’t people in forced lockdown have a right to live too?
11
It seems to me that this success in China can only be temporary. As soon as the restrictions are lifted, I don't see how the virus can be contained in the rest of the country. Of course the same draconian measures can be applied elsewhere, but if the closure of one city has caused this much economic turmoil, engaging the rest of China is sure to be a catastrophe. Instead, this looks more like a dike - able to hold the inexorable waters back for a time, but ultimately to fail in a big way. Sooner or later the people must be allowed to go about their business and the virus will appear, resurgent.
4
Quarantine doesn't prevent the spread of the disease, it slows it down so it will not overwhelm healthcare resources. Everyone will be exposed to the virus eventually, because all the populations are interconnected.
22
They can't eliminate it. It will always get reintroduced from abroad. World wide quarantine is not possible. They can go to extremes and tamp it down but never eliminate it. So every time they think they can let up, as soon as they do, it will reemerge. The only people who won't get it are those that have already had it, and maybe even some of those will.
Some times the news is bad and there is nothing our fearless leaders can do. Not that we didn't know that already. I don't know about you but I have no confidence in most national leaders, the dictators Xi and Trump the least of all. Seems like they really are just working opinion rather than acting functionally.
Technically I would expect China not to tell the truth about the numbers. Here in the US the numbers are down because Trump suppresses test availability. All dictators act like that.
14
@Chris
You seem to be one of the few people who are still capable of thinking rationally.
Spot on!
The lockdown in China is unprecedented and fact of the matter is, if people are isolated, the disease cannot spread. You can doubt the numbers all you want, but science does not lie.
The real question is if the cases will increase again when the lockdown is eased.
17
@Sean of course they will. As some have argued it may buy time but only that. Global pandemics are one of the prices we pay in today's Global Economy. I think a better reaction is to take whatever sensible precautions you feel are right for you and those around you and otherwise roll with the punches.
1
U.S. officials are certainly in no position to criticize China for a lack of candor in reporting cases. It is not clear why the U.S. has no idea how many people are infected. But unreasonable restrictions on who could be tested have played a role.
Until recently only people with symptoms who had traveled to China or who had contact with a person confirmed to have the virus could be tested. As a practical matter, few others can be tested now. With the president openly admitting that he would like to leave the passengers and crew on a ship known to be struck by the virus, it is not hard to imagine that his sycophants are ensuring infections cannot be verified by lab tests in order to 'keep the numbers' where Trump likes them.
If the authorities really want to see more people tested soon, they could certainly set up a system to send samples to Germany or China for testing while we sort out our own system.
Perhaps China has gone too far in locking down Wuhan and the rest of Hubei province. But their error may well prove to be less grave than allowing people to still board cruise ships, go to theme parks, attend political rallies and sporting events, etc when there is no doubt that the virus is here and spreading.
We can look at the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. (350-400) and shrug. But how about the number of people who have been instructed to self quarantine or isolate themselves. That is a far more worrisome number that is getting very little attention.
18
I don’t trust their numbers but if those numbers are somewhat accurate, I honestly think they took the only action that made sense.
I have a bigger concern. I think the media is going overboard in reporting on this virus. Every single new infection is reported in blazing headlines. We are a nation of about 350 million people. Is it really necessary to report every single new infection? We don’t do it with the flu. I don’t think we do daily headcount with the Ebola virus in Africa. We did not do when the AIDS epidemic took so many of our loved ones.
Don’t get me wrong. I am a staunch 70-year old liberal with underlying health conditions. I love the NYT. It along with the AP, WAPO and PBS are my primary news sources. But we are seeing a level of panic rise in this country. And that panic might just do more harm to us and the economy that the virus itself.
17
@Pete Suggest adding the BBC to your list of news sources.
1
@Pete
It would be helpful if people, including the NYT, could separate their coverage of the virus from their animus towards this president. Combining them just exacerbates concerns and provides little benefit.
@Pete
I'm guessing we won't hear about every new infection when they get in the thousands and up.
China's response has been flawed but it's been a barrier.
We're learning from this.
the epidemic could've started anywhere
and it highlights the importance of bolstering international cooperation and the free exchange of ideas.
Today it's the coronavirus
tomorrow it will be something else.
no one has a monopoly on effective measures.
They will come as they always have, from anywhere in the world,
and ought to find a way to serve humanity.
For anyone to claim that the stemming of the tide of infection
is a political win for China is pure nonsense.
the scanners, medical expertise, shared knowledge and the massive effort of so many workers is part of the world's heritage.
Not something Xi and company can take credit for.
4
Actually, this article shows me another side of coin.
Although there are still some shortcomings of them, CCP took a lot of effectively measure to anti the virus spreading.
8
This is the second time a dangerous virus from China has gone global. More people would have die if not for the brave efforts of Dr. Jaing, during the SARS epidemic, and Dr. Li Wenliang, during the CoVID-19 epidemic. Their memory should be promote so that a future epidenics are caught first hand. The International community needs inspectors on the ground in China, making sure these wildlife markets are safe. We can't trust the Party; they are in a battle against corruption.
8
A lot of Senior WHO doctors from various countries, who risked their health/lives to visit China, have repeatedly told the public the proved experience from China, but people just keep challenging, including the reporters of this article, China’s experiences. There are so much distrust for chinese government and Chinese people. We are just wasting so much time and precious experience bought by their huge sacrifices and efforts. That’s sad as whole humankind, we continue to pay the heavy price due to our own distrust!
19
@Kevin That's missing the point. When the outbreak began, the Chinese government in Beijing used force to silence doctors who wanted to report the outbreak. That action did not help and led to the death of Dr. Li Wenliang. When the disease had spread to a wider population, it no longer proved feasible to suppress the information, so the Chinese government began reporting the novel coronavirus outbreak. Through no fault of their own, but due to a lack of testing capability, early statistics coming from Hubei changed dramatically as the definitions of "cases" and "infected" changed. The R-naught for this virus is still unknown because we, even we Americans, lack the means to determine how many people have COVID-19. That affects our ability to determine the rate at which infected people die. If the numbers from the March 7 WHO situation report are accurate, then the rate of death for COVID-19 in Hubei is 4.4%, while the US has a rate of 5.2%. Neither number is reliable, yet.
So, China's claim that these quarantine measures worked is misleading. Isolation of infected patients may work, but if you can't detect them, it doesn't matter. Quarantining infected and uninfected alike has never been shown to contain a viral infection. It follows then that what we are hearing from the Chinese propaganda machine is what they want (us) to believe.
It's not anti-Chinese sentiment that fuels this doubt. It's the science.
2
The WHO has no credibility, look at the amount of flip-flopping they have done! They initially criticized those for restricting travel as being stigmatizing and racist and later changed their tune! They also throw out fatality rates that are much higher than many scientists and doctors suggest thereby adding to the hysteria.
Pause.
Why are we believing the numbers China is claiming? Why does this article not even mention this possibility, despite acknowledging that the government is known to have "concealed and mismanaged" the initial stages?
Why is it "staggering" that there are 80,000 people in China who are infected? I have been essentially led to believe that half of Americans are going to get this virus at some point in the next 4 months.
This article raises more questions than it answers.
5
@QTCatch10 it's staggering given the population in Wuhan. 11 million
Rightfully stay sceptical. This is the authoritarian government that established the conditions producing the outbreak, then covered up right at the point when transparency would have resulted in quicker containment.
This is the authoritarian government that two weeks ago encouraged workers to return to work so no economic impact would be felt, and the dictatorship would not be threatened. This is the authoritarian government that is trying to spin global disaster into a nationalistic Chinese triumph story. And Trump apparently is taking notes.
A model for the worst of the world. Stay sceptical.
9
@Rod Palmer
An authoritarian government in times of a disaster is more in control and therefore more dependable, than a so-called 'democratic' one. A controlled press is also more trustworthy and dependable when it comes to avoiding mass panic, than the so-called 'free press' for which everything must be a 'story' at all costs, whether true or false.
There is no country in the world capable of coming remotely close to what the government of China has accomplished. I have been based in Shanghai since the outbreak and they have been utterly focused on containment. Personally I consider it all a huge waste but once MUST respect the sheer focus and determination "at any cost" of the effort involved. Why? why do I consider it a waste ? because it became clear almost immediately that people with zero symptoms were carriers. Reality leads us to easily conclude that what is contained is truthfully only suppressed and a new wave can hit at any time. For China to truly contain COVID, it will need to contain and simultaneously lock down all borders with the outside world. No travelers in or out. No risk of a resurgence. Now that would be impressive. I have been advocating for the sake of the world economy and the livelihood of billions that we let this virus spread. spread everywhere. Let death happen at home among loved ones, as the hospitals simply will not be able to cope. People should go to work. We should pick ourselves up and realize that we cannot cope when a carrier has no symptoms. Panic & Hysteria should not be the driving force. But perhaps it is already too late. China tried very very effectively to contain. What happens now in the West will be an absolute circus of errors. Make no mistake CHINA IS THE SAFEST PLACE IN THE WORLD CURRENTLY
15
@China Farmer You are being lied to by the propaganda department of the CCP from the start, and you always had been. There is no opposition political party and no free press to challenges the lies in mainland China so it is easy for them to brainwash the long suffering , hard working Chinese people who deserve better. The CCP are now lying about numbers because it is bad for business if the true numbers came out. IT IS OUT OF CONTROL because it was covered up by the incompetent CCP in December last year when it could have been contained and now it is spreading all over the world. Nothing can stop it now except closing borders. Luckily it is not too deadly.
@China Farmer I agree. American reaction to this is comical and there is no preparation.
China is now the leading example of containment and the world must model their behavior. 6 Chinese families in the US that are involved with a business of ours are leaving the US to reluctantly return to China because the US is not taking the virus seriously. It is conceivable that China will move from borders closed by others to borders closed to others if they fully contain the virus. While US white collar companies are rapidly following suit and group events are being canceled, too much of the US economy is small business and service and can't work from home or cannot afford to proactively stop operating. It is essential that Trump stop fiddling as Rome burns
10
I am now more concerned with the kind of response the governments in the US facing the threat of the epidemic. We have blamed China for not making the initial outbreak information publicly known. But the Chinese government has since done a much better job in reporting, on a daily basis and in a coordinated manner, data of the outbreak including new cases, possible cases, deaths, recovered. There are national figures and figures by provinces. These data are reported by all news media outlet including online ones. Here in the US, it is state by state, and news media only report total number of new cases. Frankly, I think we should take a page from China's playbook in tracking, reporting the cronavirus cases and alerting the general public.
11
China has a state policy based on lies. Communism cannot last five minutes if the government tells the truth. The real numbers of deaths caused by the virus outbreak-caused by unsanitary customs-may not be known for a very long while. Democracies should have a trading agreement and disengage from relying in the manufacturing of goods in China and this for multiple reasons among others the protection of intellectual property and safeguarding the labor force at home. The world will be different after this outbreak.
7
@sebastian
You can't handle the truth, because you don't what the truth is.
How could Dr Schaffner possibly say China bought us more time? China is at fault for the initial spread by not having accepted the virus’ existence and by allowing it to spread to the rest of the world. Totally at blame for this.
Btw you and your fellow reporters have been doing a tremendous job on the frontlines in China reporting on this. Thank you. Outstanding.
4
@Expat
Switch to reality. Do it now. It might be painful but you will feel better.
As soon as the location of the outbreak was identified, China attacked it with a vengeance. It took them only 3 days to identify and isolate the virus; the data was forwarded to the WHO.
2
@Expat
China bought us more time in the sense that we had full knowledge of what was happening there back in *December*. We're now well into March.
With those months, we could have been producing masks and respirators for healthcare workers, curtailing travel, implementing mandatory testing at airports, quarantining those who had been to hot spots, preparing designated quarantine centers (it's insane that we literally do not even have a space for those on the ship idling off California!) and educating the public and hospitals in proper protocol.
We had the gift of knowing what this disease looked like, how it behaved, and how seriously we needed to take it. Do I really need to ask what we did? None of that! Literally nothing was done to prepare.
It is unconscionable that this administration pulled a Katrina. It cannot be allowed to walk away from accountability for its abysmal role in dealing with this crisis. People will die for that lack of planning. Some would have anyway, naturally, but our lack of response is going to cost us more than it had to.
---
If this president continues to state that he is holding off on tests to artificially boost his numbers (at least six statements this week make that exact point) he should be removed immediately on charges of treason. A war on a disease is every bit as real as a real war, and the casualties are often higher.
3
@Expat NY Times' reporters have been doing a tremendous job on bashing China on everything.
None of this matters anymore. With the Trump administration sitting on its hands, the virus will infect between 60-180 million Americans over the next few weeks, which means that there will be another wave of infections sweeping the world.
As of today, the US has only tested just over 5000 potential cases, whereas South Korea is testing 10.000 a day. As a result, the US infection numbers do not reflect the severity of the crisis - as a matter of fact no other country has suffered as many fatalities with such a low number of known infections. Take Germany, which has twice as many confirmed cases as the US but no fatalities, whereas the US already had 19 patients dying of Covid-19. Anyone with basic numeracy will understand that this means that there are probably thousands infected in the US, who are spreading the virus unhindered.
9
@EBurgett
Nonsense. The Trump Administration is not "sitting on its hands."
The CDC's test kits were defective. Plus officials had to contend with CDC and FDA regulations which highly controlled the labs and test kit producers.
Trump quickly eased restrictions at both the CDC and FDA to allow more testing lab sites and commercial test kits to become available. He's managed to overcome these obstacles very quickly.
2
Strains of influenza kill upwards of 80k each year. Let me ask, when you have the flu, do you stay home each time? If not , then why is this time and this bug any different?
1
Some perspective would be helpful if also mentioning the in the article the 9.7 million flu cases and 12000 to 30000 deaths caused by the flu in the US this year.
3
@Truth Teller But let's put the flu in perspective too. The flu has an attack rate that is one third of the coronavirus, and and a mortality rate which is, at a minimum of only one fifth of the coronavirus.
@Truth Teller Be nice to know more about those numbers. Did they get the vaccine for instance.
@Truth Teller Thank you. If 10 million, Americans catch Covid-19, 300.000 of them will die - 10 times as many as from the flu.
If 20-60% of Americans catch the Corona virus (which is where the estimates are at), 60-180 million will be infected, and 2-6 million will die.
And, no, this is not scare-mongering buy based on simple math, and on what we know about the virus so far.
What is interesting is the rest of the world had ample time available to get ready while China was dealing with covid19 - testing kits, masks, sanitizers, airport screening and such. But it appears that nobody outside of Australia did anything.
Seems like most are happy to pay the lip service and are hoping that the advent of spring will help contain it.
Good luck, World!
10
@VS Singapore did, and is doing an amazing job, as everyone (sometimes grudgingly) admits. Also Germany did a pretty good job, because they did massive contact tracing, which is why they have many cases but no fatalities. And no, Australia will not be spared either...
3
A simple question: how can a cure be worse that a disease, no matter the measures. As an Italian scientist, working in infectious disease field (in Germany) it’s very painful to see what’s happening now in my own country - the debates over media and especially the real fight doctors are fighting to contain or control the outbreak. At this point, I can only admire what the Chinese have done - they did give us us time, an alert to realize what is happening, but we seemed to think it’s only happening to them and won’t happen to us. Whether the measures our governments are taking are right or not, is debatable. However, people need to understand that this is extremely serious, a lot of cases are around us and are not being detected- see the measures taken by South Corea, that’s a way to go...and there are certainly going to be enormous consequences on all levels- social, behavioral, economic, you name it. But first of all we need to STOP THE VIRUS!!!!
16
@Marina
Thanks for this front line perspective and good luck to you, your colleagues, and all you care for. Those in the front lines are the only heroes here.
1
I didn’t learn much. What are the short or longer term affects for those who survive? What about the reported lung scarring? What about relapse?
Please report the effect to humans and if there are cross species infections and more on reported mutations?
7
Numbers coming out of China fit the narrative that China has been doing the right thing and is victorious in containing the outbreak.
But of course, China lies.
So why would reporters buy these numbers?
Experts and scientists are using these underreported numbers and applying them to formulas to tell people whether or not this virus has a high mortality. Fake numbers yield fake results.
Neither the WHO nor the CDC have all the facts. No one is keeping track of the hundreds of thousands who have been infected, confirmed or not.
2
so the author thinks that the numbers from china might be flawed and incomplete. it is obvious that the numbers of the u s are incomplete given the low number of tests being made and it would not be surprising if they were also flawed and manipulated (with a sharpie).
3
Unless you are elderly or immunocompromised, your “coronavirus journey” - if you were to catch it- would basically be a cold/URI. So, I’d say at risk folks should definitely take extra personal precautions, and others should simply go about their usual business, with some extra hand-washing for good measure.
6
@GBR Please don't spread germs at work at work or at nursing care centers.
1
At a painful cost? What’s more important: the economy or people?
6
China is a planned economy. Results matter more than civil liberties to its political elite. Within this context, a massive response to coronavirus could be anticipated once governmental leaders got the message. Is their public health response sustainable? Will it decisively contain this highly infectious decease over time? Who knows.
By comparison, we value civil liberties in the US, while grotesquely underfunding public health. The slash and burn funding practices of the Trump Administration has rendered the CDC incapable of an effective response. Many state governments have also neglected public health. VP Pence is the veritable frog in a freeway as he ineffectually leads a public relations campaign against a health crisis. Trump pretends that his tweets will kill this bug. Indeed, if his fake news were an antidote to coronavirus then this virus has no future here.
Whomever wins the Democratic primary must commit to funding a public health system that inspires confidence. Coronavirus offers a timely reminder that all Americans need access to affordable health care when facing life threatening illness. Debating whether the tab is ultimately paid for by the federal government, or by private health insurance is a secondary concern.
8
@Stu Sutin
"China is a planned economy."
Because you know what that is. Sure, if you say so Chuckie.
The Chinese government is simply not to be believed, anymore than their treatment of the ""one country, two systems" promise, in light of recent events in Hong Kong, is to be believed.
China is a completely authoritarian country. Virtually all information coming out of, as well as into, China is controlled by a regime which will not countenance bad news for fear of appearing illegitimate and ineffective.
Of course, we have a ham-fisted imitation of Chinese leadership in our own White House. Luckily, a free press still exists and the truth usually gets out in spite of Trump's attempts to stifle it.
1
How about China truly banning the exotic meat markets, for eating and medicinal purposes?
I have been to China many times. The people are wonderful and are very hospitable. The hotels are beautiful and the food is delicious. They do not need to be selling and butchering animals like bats in close quarters, or at all for that matter.
7
Chinese do not eat bats. This is a right-wing conspiracy base on a Chinese blogger eating bat soup in the Pacific nation of Palau. Of course some Chinese do eat ‘exotic’ animals such civets and pangolins which may be affected by viruses carried by bats. This is more likely how the novel coronavirus jumped to humans. I read somewhere that in a Chinese southwestern province that there are “pangolin” farms (as some Chinese believe pangolins have some ‘health” benefits.) I do agree that we should stop eating wild animals, if not for humane reasons, but for stopping diseases. But on the other hand, how are Chinese eating “wild” animals different from “games” (like deer, caribou and reindeer) on the menu in some Western restaurants)?
No matter what Most Americans are always critical about China and how undemocratic way Chinese leaders are damaging to her innocent citizens. But the Chinese dictators are now slowly winning the war against Coronavirus invasion in China. But America will never interested to learn from the Chinese experience. Not even for life saving reasons. Democracy and transparency are more important than human lives in America.
5
Amy Qin is picking up nicely where Li Yuan, the other reporter on the China beat, left off. Translated: tell readers China is not trustworthy, draconian Chinese leaders can't do anything right, despite what WHO observers in China and other health professionals said in praise of China's effort to slow down a new and unknown pathogen, which human populations have not developed defense mechanism yet.
Like all natural calamities, of course people suffer losses. It's only human to complain. But Chinese people have shown remarkable restraint, cooperation and patience. No riots and burnt down stores.
4
As the article says, the party boss of Wuhan is asking the residents there to be grateful to Xi Jinping and the communist party. For what should they be grateful? For turning this into a pandemic? The situation got out of control because of the coverups and doctored numbers by the CCP. We should not trust them!
2
The Western Media keep harping on human right and the economic costs, but did they consider the cost if it's not under control? For 1.4 billion Chinese, if half got infected, that's 700 million, 20% are serious syndromes, that's 140 million, death rate say is not 3.4%, but 1%, that's 1.4 million. No society and health care system and maintain itself without collapsing. Then complete chaos and anarchy. U.S. have trouble finding landing spot for that cruise ship of 3,000 people. The man in Westchester infected over a dozen people in less than 1 week, that's only we know of, not the secondary or tertiary chains. The taxi driver tested positive in Rockaways and caused 40 medical professional to be quarantined. I worry that the healthcare system in U.S. will collapse if the virus spread to the homeless population.
16
Which is more important between saving lives and inconvenience economic cost?
1
This is not a zombie movie, or even one of those average evil-virus/super-duper-contagion movies where EVERYONE GETS SICK AND DIES! Pass the popcorn!
Rather, coronavirus is ostensibly nothing more than a ramped-up version of your average-year flu. Even the mortality rate is a more 3.5 percent overall---not something I wish to minimize, but only hope people will put into helpful larger context. It may interest those under 60 to note that their specific mortality numbers are even a mere fraction of the overall numbers. Hey, Boomer, this one's for you. Those over 60 are most susceptible to the 3.5 percent mortality rate, especially but not solely limited to men, plus those with lung and heart issue or compromised immune systems.
And even if you get the virus, your experience will likely be no worse than the average cold or flu. A few sniffles, a cough perhaps, and that's it. Most folks won't even know they had it. Should make everyone breathe a little easier.
As far as putting a moat around COVID-19, squeezing 'til it's gone, this is where it gets tricky. Should we employ draconian measures that may only dampen, not eliminate, the virus, or let society run per usual, putting the fires out when and where they appear?
It's a serious question each of us needs to ponder. Soon, it may become personal. And if it does, which matters more, killing the virus short-term, or civil liberties longterm?
Are we are our brother's keeper? Or is it everybody for his/herself?
6
The disruption of freedoms and livelihoods to contain a virus, the spread of which is directly related to human population density and modern lifestyle, is a pre-sequel of the times to come, if and when we are unable to change our way of living.
It is ironic that atmospheric CO2 rise will halt during the first half of 2020 because covid-19 did what governments could not.
And this is not a one-timer. Within 20 years this is the third serious new epidemic. Seven good and seven bad years, in repeat.
Do we learn? If not, we cry and learn.
1
Posting from Germany - which currently has 847 cases of infection but not one death - and we had dinner last night at a Steak Restaurant with a Chinese friend who studies sociology here - and we all wondered what is the difference about the handling of the Virus in Germany compared to China and the US?
4
The difference is that there are a lot more cases that are untested, therefore the data points/ trend are inaccurate.
@pieceofcake
Give it a month or so, then we will know more.
Many recent COVIT-19 outbreaks worldwide are not traceable to known sources. May be China is not the only source of this virus, which may have originated in USA. Japanese media questions whether some of the 15,000 deaths in the US in the last season were in fact caused by COVIT-19 (2500 deaths worldwide). For example, A japanese women with no known suspicious contact, was tested positive having just come back from holidaying in Haweii. Italian news also reports its ground-zero COVIT-19 patient had no known suspicious contact history except for recent holidaying in Hawaii. While present assumptions are that the virus originated in Wuhan, China, new research suggests that it did not originate there - though clearly it entered the Huanan wet market there and aggressively bred between persons in it, starting an epidemic. Chinese scientists are still trying to identify the ground-zero source of infection. Interestingly recent research shows the virus's genetic variations in COVIT-19 patients can be grouped as five distinct clusters labeled as A, B, C, D and E. If A clusters are regarded as parents, B's would be children, and C's grand-children. Thus B can only manifest, or be borne, after A and not vise-versa. Genetic tests show that all COVIT-19 viruses in Chinese patients belong only to group C, those in Hong Kong show A and C, those in the US (only a handful tested) present all the classes of ABCDE. This points to USA as more likely to be the virus's place of origin.
3
On one hand, I am finding it fascinating the degree to which this has brought our world to a near halt and the media is obsessed with coverage while kids are getting gunned own in their schools, at concerts, etc. And climate change is poised to do far more damage and destruction yet countries, especially ours, are more concerned with other things. I hate to sound crude but the people who have died are very nearly at death's door already. Maybe the (fewer) vulnerable ones should be quarantined as opposed to everyone else and rethink this mania, expense, and environmental issues over testing.
4
Of course lockdowns are needed to contain any fast spreading virus. Let's admit certain methods are most effective in certain scenarios and situations, and this is no different. China did not invent medical 'lockdown', yes it works most here, because of communism, which is 'lockdown' in itself of personal freedom.
In the US, people choosing to be vigilant about their own going-ons helps, but otherwise, we are seeing a bit of panic and the impact as toilet paper, hand sanitizers etc. vanishing :-D. But this virus will not stop, it will require the entire world to come together and act together. Now if we could say the same about climate change.
3
If China hadn't applied drastic measures (even draconian), the U.S. or EU could be looking at 10 times or more confirmed cases as compared to now. That fact is sadly ignored by this report.
Ideology should not triumph over humanity. Especially when we all face this challenge together. Put aside the petty concerns and join forces. That is how we win as a race.
16
Did I miss something in this article that said China found a cure or vaccination for the virus? It seems to me that until that part has been solved the virus will continue to spread.
5
The problem is less the virus and more its "spread." Containment is critical to stop the spread. That should be the first priority of any government.
Trump took the right steps given the information we had at the time. He declared an emergency and limited travel for those who had been near Ground Zero in the past two weeks. He ordered the first quarantine in 50 years.
Like most countries, the US was unaware how easily transmitted this virus is. Now we know. More travel restrictions are necessary.
7
@AACNY What emergency did he declare? Other than banning Chinese nationals I cannot understand your statements I do not know what Trump has done. Mostly he seems so concerned with numbers he won't agree to accurate testing. Even nursing home residents at the epicenter of the outbreak near Seattle have not been tested! That's hardly a great response. It's actually irresponsible.
1
Would it be possible to obtain aside from statistics on coronavirus those on ordinary flu cases this year and the number of deaths so far? it would help us to put things in perspective.
12
@Agustin Blanco Bazan
Agreed! We need comparative data with other infectious diseases in order to measure actual morbidity and mortality. If we are going to shut down the world, it better be necessary.
1
@Agustin Blanco Bazan
According to Vox:
In the 2017-2018 flu season there were an estimated 80,000 deaths in the US. It was the largest death toll in decades. One account claimed that was double what had been expected.
Mild flu seasons kill about 12,000. More severe, up to 55,000.
2
@AACNY
These are estimated deaths; deaths "associated" with the flu season. No cause of death is actually known.
In England 2018 (popn. 55 million) there were - according to government figures -
Confirmed cases of influenza A+B (inc H1N1 & H3N2 strains) cases:3245, deaths:330, ICU admissions:2924, ICU case fatality rate:9.3%
So, actually, very FEW people in a first world country are KNOWN to have died of flu - and the cases actually diagnosed were severe.
The rest of '10,000's' is guesswork.
The biggest problem is DELAY. Public health officers and governments by taking a softly, softly, wait and see approach have been pussyfooting around. If they were really serious about stopping this virus, they should have had immediate travel bans in place to China and every country as soon as the virus was discovered. No exceptions. Taking a half-hearted approach is going to result in the worst of all worlds - the virus will still spread around the world over months killing thousands - while ineffective quarantine measures cause massive economic damage. Also, surely there needs to be some sort of suspension or alteration of financial obligations which cannot be met due to the effects of the coronavirus - as a kind of unforeseeable superseding event - like a natural disaster or act of god. I think what this virus does show is just how artificial the economy is and how vulnerable it is to external events (of which we’ll be seeing more due to climate change). Maybe there is something to be said for a more simple life. Do we really need to travel as much and release all that carbon? Can we do more using technology to work remotely and communicate on Skype? Is there something nice about being at home and staying local? It can certainly save you money.
14
@Kay Stick to the topic! This has NOTHING to do with climate change.
The author made a mistake by comparing Hong Kong and Singapore with Wuhan, the hardest hit epicenter of this new deadly infectious disease. Both cities have only limited imported cases to begin with and community transmission was detected early and case numbers were small. They should be more appropriately compared with cities in China outside of Hubei province. Those cities pretty much have eradicated the bug completely. Just today, Italian government announced locking down of 11 provinces in the north to contain the endemic, Wuhan style. Like it or not, the explosive exponential growth of the COVID19 would force any government down to this path unless a government chooses to surrender 2% of the population without any serious effort. Just wait and see this happens again and again when it ravages through the rest of the world. It's not by anyone's choice but the nasty nature of this once a century plague.
Also, the author's assumes the economy would run as usual when an endemic is ongoing. Such assumption is obviously flawed.
47
The argument here is that it is a choice between controlling the virus while trashing the economy, or allowing the virus to spread and presumably the economy will hum along as usual. But is this realistic ? Do you think when hospitals are overwhelmed, and thousands of people are dying, that life will still go on as usual ? Would people still go shopping in malls, go to cinemas, restaurant, or even go to work as usual ? I would argue that if the virus is not brought under control with measures that are painful in the short term, the epidemic will still lead to the same economic impact, but probably even more severe and prolonged.
83
@Erica Chan
and I would agree , thanks
It's questionable what China's unprecedented nationwide lock-down has achieved. Yes, it has slowed down the spread of the virus, but coronavirus still found its way to many other countries. Now China is afraid that people from other countries to bring back the virus. What's the solution? Continue the isolation for another year until a vaccine is found? Vast majority of people who are infected have only mild symptoms. This looks like a severe version of flu. It could be deadly but probably should not keep you stay at home.
6
Time is the point. Even if you cannot eradicate the virus, you want to slow down the spreading so that the public health system is not overwhelmed at any time point. Hopefully then more and more people obtain immunity over time and a vaccine can be developed.
2
This raises the question of the balance between individual liberty and the benefit of society as a whole.
Where does the balance lie? Is it right to restrict individuals activities so the impact on society is reduced? Why should I limit travel just because it might mean that I don’t cause other people to fall ill.
3
As a Chinese I don't fully understand the perspective. What being expressed in the article is that China's heavy-handed measures on containing virus, though (may have, as it seems reluctant for the author to admit) worked, have severly supressed the human rights such as individual freedom hence it's not a good way. But isn't the right to live the most rudimentary right? How to protect the individual freedom if your citizens CANNOT LIVE?
144
@Harold
Americans have to navigate the balance between safety and individual freedoms like any other country, and it can get controversial (ex: the Patriot Act) but our culture and constitution tend to lean towards freedom whereas the Chinese culture & law may tend to lead towards giving up some rights in exchange for safety.
I think a good example of what I mean by this culture is how all the license plates in New Hampshire say “Live Free or Die" & it is the state’s official motto. What more needs to be said?
6
@Mike
If government can't control virus by sacrifice personal freedom, can you prove that will decrease economic impact for a long term? If USA adapt same control measure, will NY times still write article to ask same question to American government?
@Mike Thank you for reading my comment. About 1), I am sure we have diffrent views of the article, but I do feel dissapointed about what CCP did in the beginning such as repressing the information;
about 2), This is confusing, the virus doesn't care if you have higher spiritual level or not, it just infects and kills. When facing a fatal condition I am pretty sure most people want to live instead of seeking the spiritual level, and their government to take responsibility.
8
I live in China and life here is a bit locked down. My university has been teaching online, as all schools have. My city had fewer than 100 cases. We all have to show a code on our phones when we go out and have our temperatures taken, but supermarkets and restaurants are open. Masks in public are mandatory. I can't have visitors in my apartment complex and can't visit friends, but we have been meeting for dinners out.
I restrict my comings and goings to 'as needed' though some colleagues are riding bikes for exercise. The air quality has been much better with fewer cars out and factories largely shut.
I had walking pneumonia in 1999 and even when I catch a cold my lungs still hurt a bit more than they should. One upside to this crisis is that I've not been sick once this winter.
I do worry that my colleagues who are still abroad won't be able to come back. The Corona virus peaked as many of us were away for the Chinese NY holiday (I was able to get back though rerouted). And I doubt we'll be able to return to campus in April as the Chinese gov't has asked. Most of our students are only children, largely coddled and protected, and their parents won't want them in public. My province is currently not letting anyone back in if they're traveling from other province or from abroad.
Truly hope this is not the new normal.
30
This virus is a stress test for entire societies, for all its parts, its social machinery,its cohesiveness, social stability. Everything. A society needs to go on a war footing to defeat this thing. Can the US do it? It appears doubtful.
24
I am a senior with an existing lung illness. I am currently isolated in place. That said, I have had all the required pneumonia and flu vaccines, that's good. But I still have bacterial pneumonia, verified by a CT scan, which just won't go away. If this current episode gets better, I will still have weak lungs for six to eight weeks. In addition I have asthma, high blood pressure and other health issues.
I really appreciate everything you healthy younger people are doing to protect people like me. And maybe, that isn't what is best for the country.
Regardless of what ya'll do this virus is coming.
I was thinking, since US seniors don't live with our kids to the same degree as other countries, we are already isolated. If we take this existing isolation of vulnerable people to the next step: quarantine, then the rest of the country could just get sick with the virus and develop the community immunity the nation needs to bring the vulnerable back into the world.
If we don't create this community immunity. but let the virus just gradually flood the community over many months then those of us who are vulnerable won't know when it will be safe to come back out.
If we plan this right we could all be back on track in four weeks. And the plan would give stability to nation.
We could wait two weeks for community immunity to form, then another week for all surface viruses to die. Then maybe one more week just to be sure, then let us vulnerable folks out. Better, yes!
31
@Patricia Tawney Just a little note of encouragement and hope for you.
I am glad for your sake you are isolated considering your inherent health risks.
You don't mention if you have a good support system in place, but don't hesitate to ask for help to ensure your protection!
Many seniors can relate to your fragile situation.
Prayers for your safety Patricia and hugs.
4
The situation described in this article can be summarized as: "Drastic Chinese measures to limit the spread of the CoVid-19 infection are saving thousands of lives but hurting economic growth statistics."
OK, which is more important?
145
@Ken not really. Do you think no one has died as a more or less direct result of the restrictive measures themselves? Think again...
1
@Ken ,
Close. It isn't hurting statistics. It really is hurting growth. The question of which is more important remains.
I still think we should create community immunity by infecting everyone who is highly unlikely to get the serious complications. We quarantine the vulnerable for four weeks. We could do this, not easy but easier than testing 100 million people. Everyone who is vulnerable would be quarantined. We would have caregivers properly uniformed to make sure they are cared for. But since most won't be sick, they can care for themselves. We give this population a few days to stock up, with everyone's help, so they can get thru the four weeks of isolation. I am stuck here from six to eight weeks anyway. If ya'll do nothing I could be stuck here for months.
China took an isolation approach. Good. But we now know that those who die are limited to a mostly vulnerable population, right? No, kids have died, right? Ok, then we should be able to pull this off. The number of high risk people is about a third of the population at most. If two third of the nation were immune, would that be enough to protect the remaining 1/3?.
Maybe. It would certainly reduce the crazy factor, right?
Just a thought
The same measures would be required to prevent 500,000 flu deaths worldwide each year.
That is 100x more than coronavirus so far.
By your measure, the planet would have to be in constant lockdown.
Of course, we would all starve to death then...
4
In its first press conference since the outbreak, Life Care said that in addition to the 13 coronavirus deaths among residents confirmed by health officials, there were an additional 11 residents who died at the nursing home who are being tested post-mortem to see if they had COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. Life Care also said that of 180 employees, 70 have symptoms of COVID-19.
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@Mary Elizabeth Lease
Does anyone know how they got the virus? Some visitor might have brought it in. Or even medial worker.
Imagine for a moment they did nothing. We wouldn't be looking at a few hundred cases of coronavirus in the U.S.. We would be looking at thousands of cases. China didn't contain the disease, but they bought the world valuable time to prepare for it. That said, I'm deeply troubled to hear that some outspoken journalists disappeared after speaking out against the Chinese government over suppression of information about the outbreak. It brings to mind the disappearance of Tank Man after the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. It's like nothing has changed much in China in over 30 years, except that China has become a major exporter of goods to the U.S.. We should be deeply troubled by this.
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@Mark There are most assuredly already thousand of cases in the US, we just don't know because testing has been extremely limited. Would there have been more if China hadn't locked down half of his people? Maybe, we'll never know though, and it's well possible that the virus has already silently spread worldwide before we even knew it existed.
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Obviously there are very serious concerns about human rights and individual liberties in China. But the American Republican idea that government exerting its power is always wrong is also fatuous. China has been dominating the global economic marketplace for years now despite an economy with massive Socialist features (Government ownership or control of huge economic sectors.) This is anathema to the free market fairytales of Republicans. The Chinese government is not afraid to exert its might for what it perceives to be the common good. In a pandemic public health crisis such as we are facing now, I’d much prefer a coordinated public policy and a strong centralized government response. Rather than ceding the field to a Balkanized, overtaxed patchwork of health care providers, perhaps with weak regional oversight, but who ultimately have to answer to profit driven corporate overlords.
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@J.M. Also, America has thousands of truly stupid people who do not vaccinate themselves against measles and the flu. When they get sick,they will infect everyone else. So controlling movement seems way more logical then the American attitude of “whatever.”
I've read stories about the front line Chinese doctors and nurses battling Covid-19, including a great article in the WSJ.
These medical professionals are truly heroes.
The world owes them respect and gratitude, regardless of how one feels about the Chinese regime.
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It’s sad to see a problem of this proportion in a time of great political divide in this country. Sadder still to see a president unwilling or unable to attempt to bridge this divide.
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@Tom When Trump was a public citizen he politicized the Ebola scare in 2014 on Twitter and used the situation to criticize President Obama. This was mirrored in the RW news media.
Now the same RW News media is saying that simply reporting on this virus is a media plot to hurt Trump.
It's sad to see such hypocrisy and the sowing of division.
I’m now in Hunan where I’ve been stayed for like two moths. During this two months, I’ve seen the people quarantined because of this virus, also the people being saved from it. I know many people don’t believe in China’s data, but to be honest, isn’t this doubt applied to any other government? We all have the same problem I think.
But I’m still appreciate to the doctors and nurses who volunteer to fight the virus at the front line, also appreciate our government for taking those strong measures to protect us. It is theses actions that kept the rest of us safe.
So just don’t only focus on the one side of the coin, ok?
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@Summer
There's also a pandemic of blame. It's directed everwhere. A symptom of a compromised emotional system.
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@Summer I doubt our government also. Bigly.
Though the Chinese government could take the extreme measures to contain the coronavirus, it is not easy for democratic countries to restrict economic and social activities in their countries. The leaders of democratic countries have been worrying about the balance between the containment of the disease and human rights. In such a situation why did WHO praise the Chinese government? A lot of people in the world have been expecting the self-examination of the Chinese government which has spread the coronavirus all over the world.
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@Matsuda What nonsense. So-called "democratic countries" are fully capable of "extreme measures". That is how the USA crushed your country, Japan, in World War II. The US government imposed a planned economy where it dictated what would and would not be produced for a total war effort. Now Italy has "locked down" the norther part of their country. Thank god, as Italy had become a key distribution hub of the virus to Africa and the Americas.
Perhaps you meant that Italy and the USA are not "democratic countries"? Perhaps they are not, but as my wife is Japanese, and is in Japan right now, we know that many Japanese are very unhappy with the WEAK response of the Japanese government. You need to direct criticisms at the Abe government, not WHO. You need to think more like China and South Korea, and less like the USA. Japan is an East Asian country, is it not?
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Great news. What looked to be an unstoppable and rapidly spreading epidemic which would have killed tens to hundreds of thousands of people has been stopped in it's tracks.
And the country that stopped it is China and the containment policy came from the Communist Party under Xi.
Great news if you are concerned about people's health. Bad news if you are using the epidemic as an opportunity to bash China.
Countries now have two models to copy on Covid 19. China and a policy that drives down infections. Or the US where the numbers have rapidly risen from a handful to hundreds over the same time period.
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@Herne
Way too early to reach the conclusions you obviously have jumped to. Relax, take the long view and watch the story unfold, please. History takes time.
@Herne
In the USA, Literally Everything Is Socialism.
Hence we fear to do anything, because Socialism.
@Herne Hm... it's also the same country that allowed the virus to spread in the first place because it did not allow its doctors to report it... or did you forget that part?
Is the economic cost worth...life?
I guess it depends on whether you think it is better to watch someone you love die rather than suffer from the consequences of regional lockdowns and factory shutdowns?
Are the authors willing to risk their own lives over this? What body count is acceptable in exchange for a lack of plague walls?
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The issue is that economic hardship can cost lives as well, and in many cases, a slide down the economic ladder for entire families (e.g. a failed business wiping out savings, a lost job, racking up of debt) that they may not recover from for a decade if not a generation.
On the surface, lives vs money seems like a black and white matter. But it’s really not that simple.
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@Jake The economics would't get any better if the Chinese government didn't take the radical measures. The outbreak happened during the Chinese New year, when one expects 3 billion travelers. The number of infected would simply go exponentially to a level far beyond the hospitals can handle. This will surely affect people's life more. We will face a much worse situation, globally. Singapore is small and hot, which is much easier to deal with COVID-19.
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Can we rely upon any data this closed system is providing?
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@Cool Dude
And which of the sets of alternative data offered to us in our you-beaut open system should we rely on?
@Cool Dude Do you know the ACTUAL number of infected in US, from the US government?
@Cool Dude
No more than we can rely on the deceptive pronouncements of you-know-who... djt!
It seems clear that the measures China is taking are saving lives, perhaps millions of lives or even tens of millions of lives. IMHO, that justifies those actions, regardless of the financial consequences. In the worst possible outcome, this pandemic could conceivably kill over 100 million people worldwide. No war or disaster in the history of civilization has ever killed that many people.
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The ancient country of China masquerading as the modern communist state has a lot to teach the world. Great consequential lessons are costly and should not be ignored. So what did we learn from most recent Corona virus, COVID-19.
1) Don't hide such a potentially devastating problem from its own people and the rest of the world. Whistle blower like Dr. Wenliang should never have been silenced or ignored. Sooner the world found out about the growing menace of COVID-19, lurking in Wuhan, the WHO and the world should have been alerted and the spread of the virus rapidly contained.
2) Viruses like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) emerged in China and was linked to the human consumption of wild animals like the sivet cats from wild life markets. Although no one is sure what the natural reservoir for the COVID-19 is, there are fingers being pointed at bats and pangolins sold in wild life markets. The lesson learned here is what scourge and panic has been brought to our world can result in emergence or reemergence of another virulent strain in the not so distant future and therefore it will be best to leave the wild animals in the wild.
3) Rapidly building well equipped new hospitals to specifically quarantine and treat infected persons arrests the spread of the virus.
4) Restricting travel and strictly enforcing travel restrictions to and from the epicenter can restrict spread of the virus.
5) Mild corona virus infection is CURABLE in immunocompetent younger non smokers.
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@Girish Kotwal "Best to leave the wild animals in the wild." YES.
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Unless the outbreak gets much much worse, I cannot imagine Americans allowing this level of authoritarianism. Think about the outrage if say New York City or California were quarantined.
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@RandyJ Imagine the outrage if Obama was the president and had to issue such orders.
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Can we really trust the reports from the Chinese government about the number of new cases that have been detected? The very low number of new cases fits in with the narrative that the Chinese government propaganda machine has been trying to sell to the rest of the world. It also fits with the long game of the Chinese government to get the country's economy back and running, even if it means sacrificing its own people to do so. We need data we can trust before we can say that the Chinese efforts have been effective.
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@LJJ wrote: “We need data we can trust before we can say that the Chinese efforts have been effective.”
Satellite photos of mass graves is probably a reliable bit of data.
@LJJ USA gov't. / China gov't. ?
Level of trust for accurate info. ?
About the same.
Unless it's Trump talking. Then drops to zero for USA
@LJJ But we should accept numbers provided by a deeply corrupt and dishonest president and his administration?
The cure is NOT worse than the disease. The disease will take out up to 10% of us if we dont stop it.
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@scientella There is literally no information whatsoever that would lead anyone to believe the mortality rate to be 10%.
@scientella
10%? That is silliness.
The Spanish Flu of 1918-20 killed about 0.5% of Americans, and nobody is suggesting that this is that severe.
In the epicenter of Covid-19, only about 0.1% of the population tested positive (though it could be higher duo to limited testing) and only 0.005% of the population has died.
Simply put, NO expert supports your wild-eyed estimates.
You are either not good with math/science or simply a fearmonger. I suspect it's both.
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@scientella - Estimates for the US are .1 to 1 percent. Don't just comment in The NY Times, read it!
If anything the Chinese government gave the rest of the world time to prepare for a pandemic. Other countries in Asia used that advantage and have seen low case numbers as a result. I don’t think the US used that time efficiently.
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@Bcereus - China denied the scope of the problem for two months, hardly a timely response. They jailed those that sounded the alarm.
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@Bcereus - which other countries - Wuhan aside, Sth Korea infection rates are higher. And because of the Olympics I don't trust the numbers out of Japan, and we're getting nothing out of Russia - which has a 3500+ km land border with China.
@Lyndon The first reports coming from China was Jan 19th. Just because most people outside China DIDN'T pay attention isn’t their fault. The 1st known case was around Xmas.
Could they have reacted faster? Yes but not by much. It was certainly faster than any other country like Japan which let the Diamond Princess stew for 6 weeks.
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This epidemic can be pushed back,” Dr. Tedros said, “but only with a collective, coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government.”
Coronavirus is like a fire, and it doesn’t matter whether the kindling is Chinese or America. But China appears to have effectively constructed breaks in the conflagration by imposing stringent measures that have effectively prevented or at least suppressed transmission.
The US has made it clear thus far that it doesn’t intend to do that. Large-scale deployment of a vaccine is at best several months away. So we’re left to fend for ourselves.
No amount of hand-washing, mouth covering and self-isolation will have anywhere near the impact of the measures taken by the Chinese. Without a concerted federal effort, the US will suffer the full effects of the virus on a scale we can’t begin to comprehend. This isn’t an alarmist perspective; just look at the numbers and our current resources and do the math.
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My town in Hunan like many more than mentioned here is locked down. Each evening we are notified in various ways how to behave to minimize social contacts. Food stores are open and little by little other businesses hoping for customers – wishfully. Slowly masks are disappearing or carelessly pushed down below the nose.
In industry as elsewhere people are asked to work from home – but how practical is that. The government has wave out utility payments and some other fixed cost ‘until latter.’
It’s working: no reported illnesses posted locally and we have 50 students who returned from Wuhan universities and private schools here for Autumn Festival -- here yet.
Picture on the WeChat of a dog doing the grocery shopping and returning home – life goes on.
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China has given enough time for the rest of the world to get ready at enormous cost to itself.
No , other country, certainly not the exceptional America would have done the same.
The least everyone could do is be thankful to them and try to utilize the time given to the maximum, without wasting their sacrifice.
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What should the world be thankful for. That Beijing didn’t heed the ophthalmologist’s initial warnings and instead defamed and muzzled him? Was there not a two week period after the initial warning that the virus could have been contained? China has reacted quickly and decisively but, at best, it has righted an unconscionable wrong
@sree the least they could do after causing the outbreak was to tell other nations: we have a problem! get ready! china should be sued in an international court of law for the unsanitary food markets, etc. please stop saying that china is good. it is a vast totalitarian regime.
It is very interesting that a common reactions of many commentators is to dismiss all data coming out of China as fraudulent.
The closing of the Western mind is a fascinating phenomenon. While no data set is 100% accurate, all data is informative.
The Western mind has reached an end state. It is not only incapable but unwilling to learn.
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@Joe Bu It has nothing to do with the Western mind. It has to do with the authoritarian nature of the PRC, its long record of lies on Tibet and the Xighurs, etc. I have studied China for decades and it is one of the least trustworthy governments I can think of. Russia being one step above it. The good thing is that this may force the US to on shore jobs and cut the economic ties to the PRC. Which cannot happen soon enough.
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@Joe Bu Well Joe, what happened with Dr Li Wenliang, one of the doctors who initially reported the outbreak? You're asking us to ignore how he was treated. The Chinese Gov has a history of punishing people who report bad news so even if the Gov has decided to start acting rationally - yes, the figures are still suspect. Anyway, unless you test everyone in a given area repeatedly there's no absolute way of determining what the infection rate is. Also this "good news only" phenomenon is not a Chinese-only affair - look at the nonsense coming out of Trumps mouth.
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@Joe Bu
Well not all, just one with an Orange tint and one that resembles a wax figure.
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Sure I believe that China’s numbers aren’t accurate just as ours are not either. I am an ER doc and I’ve just had it with the DOH denying testing for the flimsiest of reasons . Can’t find what you don’t look for and we ain’t looking
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@KHM I tend to believe China's numbers more than the U.S.'s at the moment. A lot of eyes have reviewed the Chinese data. The U.S., whether by design or not, has not put in place systems to collect and share meaningful data on infection rates.
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@KHM - They are still waiting on testing kits for the nursing home here in the Seattle area where most of the deaths have occurred. And they are going to now do post mortem testing on the other deaths that took place in that facility since the outbreak started which is about 11 deaths, I believe.
Anyone who believes that there are only 108 cases in Washington is foolish. There are only 108 reported cases so far in Washington and the death rate is at 17 per 108 which is far above a 2% rate coming from the WHO.
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Forget China. Focus on why there are so few test kits available in the United States. Why were CDC's standards for testing so stringent that many people who were infected were allowed to go into the general population? Was it because they knew they had insufficient test kits and need to cover themselves? Why is the public told that masks are ineffective in preventing infection for the average citizen and that we should hold off securing them for ourselves in order that health workers have them available to protect health workers from the virus -- in short, if the masks are effective for health workers, why is the public told they are ineffective for the rest of us? This is not paranoia - it's an Orwellian oxymoron. Why was the CDC's budget cut by the Administration and what effect has that had on its ability to properly respond? And why is Congress failing in its duty to find answers to these and other questions?
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@Golem18
The CDC tests had a flaw. It has been corrected. It must also approve labs for testing. Some states still awaiting approval. The FDA had to loosen regulations as well to allow commercial tests to be developed.
The CDC and FDA were not set up for this volume. Fortunately, Trump has pushed right through their limitations.
This incessant blaming is based on unreasonable expectations. Listen to Fauci. Calm down.
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@AACNY
I agreed with almost everything you said - a first -until "Calm down." That's usually what people say when things are out of control.
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@AACNY No. Do not calm down. The Administration is in denial mode contending that Coronavirus is not a serious matter and that it has it under control. In fact Trump is only interested in tamping down information he believes will make him look bad and now blaming a non-existent Obama rule. When things go bad, Trump blames Obama. Enough of Trump apologists. We have no idea about the extent of Coronavirus because the Administration decided to tamp down information and is late to the game. South Korea has done a better job at testing and information than the United States. Fact: the US is not prepared to deal with the virus and Trump and the Administration's position is, as always, denial of the facts and make-believe.
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China should have never let coronavirus start, but it did ultimately combat it very commendably. At the end of the day. fewer people died in China than in the US in a normal flu season. The ALTERNATIVE would have been a lot more "painful", to borrow a word from the headline.
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CCP elite appears to know, as usual, more than what has been widely reported. This time it is about the timing of the epidemic's start, especially. Test kits were relatively scarce in the beginning but the supply sky rocketed in January perhaps (I say perhaps as I have not seen any reports on this matter specifically) before CCP admitted person-to-person infection model. The recent story about former patients showing new positive test results is problematic especially in the context of China chasing "Zero". That could possibly be because of the mass production of test kits and mass production of instant test kits administrators - both facing the obvious risks of declining average quality. Otherwise, yes, China did slow down the spread of the virus globally. That fact does not erase the other more fundamental fact that their initial cover up produced a very large number of Chinese tourists with the virus globally.
9
One man’s “cover-up” is another man’s “avoiding causing unnecessary alarm”. I think China has concluded that mistakes were made, but the pejorative tone of articles in the NYTimes is unnecessary. Person-to-person communication was only confirmed around the time that the infection was announced.
I believe exactly no message run through xi's or the loser's regimes, especially on important matters like this virus.
The harsh measures could be working; they could be not working; they could be helping the virus to evolve into a clone of Hilary Duff that causes diabetes on contact. But I can only trust doctors and journalists independent of the tyrants' strangle to tell the ultimate truth about that.
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China and other Asian countries need to ban the trade in wild animal meat. That is what caused this pandemic, and it will cause others if not stopped now.
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@Herr: there is a problem in mainland China, but it is not for lack of the government passing laws. Let’s not forget that many countries also sell wild meat - venison, wild boar - including in Sweden. The problem is the mindset that values wild animal medicine over general medical safety and over the continuation of the species.
In any case, it it appearing more likely that the seafood market was *not* the source of the infection. Wait before jumping to judgement.
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@Herr Andersson Your point is as useful as saying to a homeless man dying on the street that he shouldn’t max out his credit card five years ago.
@Andrew Bats and civets do not swim.
There may be no way to bend media reporting toward objectivity – although that is their declared justification. Let’s start with “hid the scale of the outbreak and silenced whistle-blowers.”
Dr. Li Wanliang (I have a picture of him with wife and boy taken by a friend in Wuhan) posted his concern about a SARS-like development to his former class mates and was picked off spreading rumors --- standard criticism in many social network setting (?) – Much beefed up over here.
Meanwhile medical personnel were becoming concerned about a new threat – communicated with their ‘superiors’ and soon enough local political authorities notified.
Now what? The mayor decides to lock down town on the eve of the New Year celebration when most of China “goes home”?
For the world out-there these are real people facing real problems could you have done better?
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" But there is also concern that China’s numbers may be flawed and incomplete. " Amy Qin, why don't you worry about America's numbers? With shortage of test kits and high cost of test, many Americans can't get tested even if their doctors ordered it. Amy, do you think America's number is perfect and complete?
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@Eric Yes, the shortage of test kits, and now slow/missing reporting on test results or even the number of tests administered.
When the leader of the government has made it clear he is willing to let people die in a ship offshore to keep official numbers down the message he sends to government employees is crystal clear.
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@Eric - Here in Washington, they are still waiting on test kits for the nursing home where most of the deaths occurred.
5
@Eric
She is not getting paid to worry about America’s numbers.
It is that simple.
3
What should be done then? Can the author propose a perfect solution?
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@Heather
That's what I thought. It's a little rich to be second guessing China at this juncture.
@Heather Journalists at the NYTimes are there to criticize, not to offer solutions. We should keep this in mind when we read this paper.
@ZHD Yeah, I get that. I just find this piece critique barely constructive even as a critique, since (exactly as another commenter said) it seems to outrageously assume that the cure can be worse than the disease... I've been following the news about Wuhan for a month and the real danger of this disease seems to be how rapidly infectious it is, and the resulting potential of squeezing available medical resources from other patients when the numbers spike. So we perhaps should take its containment more seriously than economic pains...
Why assume the Chinese reports are accurate?
19
Why assume the US reports are accurate? There is definitely timely information action showing Chinese infection numbers have indeed peaked, and that is good news we WANT to hear -
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@Mycoversblown China has produced volumes of data the U.S. cannot even yet begin to assemble and it has been reviewed by medical and public health specialists from numerous international agencies and many countries. Whether intentional or not, the U.S. authorities have created a situation in which data does not exist to measure or control the true extent of viral infection in the country.
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@Mycoversblown - "Why assume the Chinese reports are accurate?"
Well, for starters, their president is not named Trump so at least there is a possibility in truthful reports. "No soldiers were harmed" "They just had headaches". "Mike Pence is doing a fine job".
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"........or is the cure worse than the disease?"
To answer that question we must know how bad the disease is, which we do not at this point, and if we wait to find out and it turns out to be as bad as it could be, the window for the hard cure may have closed.
And of course the "hard cure" is really not a cure at all, it is just a shut down to isolate the cases and prevent the spread in the general population. If you are diagnosed you are isolated, quarantined, severe cases go on oxygen, critical cases go on respirators, you either die or you survive it, no-one is cured.
5
@gbc1 - The best most accurate report I have gotten about the disease is from a worker at the nursing home where most of the Washington deaths have occurred. He stated that patients went from showing no symptoms to needing hospitalization in 1 hour. And the teenager in town who was positive felt ill on a Monday and stayed home from school with body aches, chills, and fever. By Friday, he went back to school without medical intervention of any kind.
This does not strike me as any kind of Spanish flu or Bubonic Plague but rather another nasty flu type disease that we all have to deal with every year. We will lose about 2,700 teenagers this year because we handed them the car keys and a cellphone too early in life. Maybe as a nation we should freak out over that and change this law instead of taking our kids to the DMV on their 16th birthday. Once we understand what is killing us, we lose fear over it and do it regardless.
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Agreed. Nobody should be allowed to drive unsupervised until they are 18. Period
I have a very hard time believing any news coming out of China concerning the coronavirus and most anything else in 2020.
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@FJS: right back at you... dump the Trump... actually GW Bush was not to be trusted either. And what about the Bay of Tonkin.... and WikiLeaks revealed that the US has been lying about there being a massacre in Tiananmen Square - all lies. Really.. check it out... as a Westerner I had believed all these lies.
Let’s face it, the US is engaged in much more armed conflict in the world than any other country... let that one sink in.
Is there any evidence that China is cooking the books? This paper constantly alludes to this. Have you anything to report on it?
Also, 80,000 cases seems less "staggering" when you consider the population is 1.386 billion. That's 1 case out of every 17,000 people.
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@Max Flavor
Likely not. If you notice identifying 'infected individuals' has been problematic. Cat scan shows, or does not, those with flue have virus or not -- some technologist working out agreement slowly.
constant media theme -- but for what its worth The World Bank tust and uses PRC statistics.
3
@Max Flavor Also less staggering when you look at CDC website & see that in the 2019-2020 US influenza season (started 10/1/19) 20,000 people have died due to influenza. (1)
In the 2017-2018 flu season CDC estimates over 60,000 Americans died due to influenza. (2)
Sources
(1) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
(2) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
@Max Flavor (minor) correction - should be 1 out of every 173,250 people
That photo of “light traffic” in Beijing during is absolute nonsense. There are ZERO cars on that road. They are obviously not returning to normal and we’re going to start see the massively negative side effects of people being held out of work soon enough.
14
I don’t understand how the author can remotely reasonably suggest that the cure may be worse than the disease. Yes liberties and human rights have been compromised (more than usual) with China’s heavy handed approach in suppressing the spread of the virus. You know what is worse than not having all the liberties and rights? Being dead because the government didn’t clamp down hard enough on the virus.
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@ben I guess “dead from a otherwise containable disease because the government failed to its job” does not mount to be a human right issue, just like universal healthcare.
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@ben
Many people have given up their life so that you can have liberty. Your rights are honored only because some people did not agree with you and are willing to kill and die for them.
2
YES. Thank you.
1
Just an example of the ineffectiveness of government as it currently exists
1
@Patrick. Would you like to put forward the US government as an example of effectiveness?
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Seems like China is going to be blamed no matter what it did or did not do: It stopped the virus, but it caused pain, so China is bad. If China did not stop the virus, this author would for sure put a bigger blame on China. On well, it’s China, whatever it does, it must be bad.
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@Charlotte Smith China hasn't stopped the virus, merely contained it. They also lied and suppressed information at the beginning of the outbreak, which is what our administration is also doing. I just hope common sense prevails and the US public doesn't go into a panic, over reacting mode.
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@Charlotte Smith
Don’t lecture us about China.
The PRC has outright, and by policy, killed so many people it is dizzying to contemplate.
A good plague is far more effective and short-lived than the Green New Deal.
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@Charlotte Smith Having been a New York Times reader for 10 years, I find your statement to be absolutely correct in general: China can’t win no matter what it does or does not do in the eyes of Western media.
26
...”at least by it’s own official figures.”
How could anyone doubt?
LOL!!!!
14
We Chinese are proud of what we have done and our normal life is coming back. Good luck, the rest of the world.
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@Huang NingTao
And some of us are proud of you, also.
Best Wishes.
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@Huang NingTao
Maybe you would be less proud if you stopped to think about how China has learned nothing between 2003 (SARS) and 2020 (Covid 19), by allowing the same conditions to flourish, which bring about these diseases in the first place. China's government should hang its head in shame for not having dealt with this.
2
@Huang NingTao wrote: “We Chinese are proud of what we have done . . .”
Pride goeth before a fall.
3
I hope people pay attention that even this fact "China is succeeding in controlling coronavirus" is debatable. I know in recent weeks Chinese local officials have received pressure from above to totally contain the virus to the point of "zero new case", which is of course impossible, and naturally their only choice is to fabricate the numbers. Official statistics in China has always been political, keep that in mind.
13
@Dickenson
"contain the virus to the point of "zero new case", which is of course impossible"
Is it? When was the last time anyone was infected with smallpox or Spanish Flu? Diseases can be destroyed, and others simply disappear--the fearful "swearing sickness" of the 1500s hasn't been seen for centuries, for example.
If you want to debate the numbers coming out of China, that is, of course, an entirely different matter.
11
The point is never whether that is medically possible (And, by the proportion of patients with no systems, it is very likely that this is medically impossible, just like any flu). Under the centralized system in China, it doesn't matter whether the disease itself is medically stoppable. What matters is local officials' promotion and the need to please their superiors.
1
In all stories covering the reporting on the pandemic, there is not one that cites or speaks to prevention of the disease in the first place. Containment is important in order to mitigate morbidity and mortality statistics and any draconian measures taken by a government to protect its citizens and economy can be argued in hindsight after the treat has subsided. Where is the discussion about behaviors to prevent the scourge in the first place? Bats harbor the Coronavirus and infect Civets, a wild feline, that is butchered and consumed by humans. Animal husbandry does not include the abattoir of feral creatures but the practice of farming in relatively controlled conditions. The Covid-19 outbreak will be followed by others lest changes in human dietary and belief systems change. Stop eating wild animals. We are sick of it!
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@ladps89 - Salmon are wild animals. Doctors tell us to eat more for our heart.
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@tom harrison Omega-3 fatty acids are good for heart. Bats with COVID-19 do not prey on salmon. Unsanitary practices in catch-food handling leads to bacterial infection. Remember the Aids virus origin? From chimpanzee bush meat to humans to humans. How soon we forget.
@ladps89
Diseases can come from domesticated animals too, such as the 2009 swine flu epidemic.
Let's not forget that, when China initiated the aggressive response to the outbreak, people had very limited knowledge about the virus: how it spreads, how deadly it is, how much resource is needed... Most cases were from Wuhan at that time, where the situations appeared to be much worse than elsewhere, painting a grim outlook. Facing a novel virus, huge uncertainty, and a big stake, what China did is very responsible and not short-sighted.
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What China's experience shows is what happens when this epidemic is allowed to get out of control, and desperate measures are needed to contain it.
The problem is, we too are failing to act, and as a consequence, the novel coronavirus will soon be out of control here -- if it isn't already.
Then, we'll face the unhappy choice of upending our entire society as China has, or watching one out of every 50 Americans die.
To avoid these twin catastrophes, we desperately need more stringent measures and more federal support than we currently have. And that will require strong leadership, rather than a leader who pretends that he is strong.
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We really can't afford to throw the baby out with the bathwater here. Everyone who's job allows it should work from home, and any social social gatherings of more than a few people should be banned. And (and I know this is going to set people off) all bars should be closed and liquor sales suspended. Anyone who is drunk is literally not capable of making good decisions regarding personal hygiene and physical contact with others.
Yes, this is going to cost jobs. Is it a violation of personal liberty? I'm not so sure. The cost of not getting this under control is beyond what most of us can imagine, and even fewer can really understand. We can't stop this, and the actions of the Chinese government in Wuhan probably went too far, but we can slow the spread of this virus down significantly if we stop prioritizing business and profits over people's lives. Our government must step in - assuring all of us adequate food, protection from evictions and utility shut offs, and the ability to seek and receive medical care without being driven into bankruptcy.
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@Kristin Suspending liquor sales? Forcing any parent quarantined for weeks on end with their three kids to go without the occasional beer or glass of wine seems a bit Draconian.
@Kristin Oh please liquor stores. Come on enter the real world.
The Chinese have put the full power of their surveillance state behind stopping the thread of this virus. I’m called frequently by someone in my “neighborhood committee” asking about my movements and health. I’m required to input my temperature into an app twice a day. If I leave the apartment I must show a government QR code that shows I’m considered healthy to get into many establishments or office buildings. Anyone coming from anywhere outside Shanghai (domestic or international) is being asked to stay away from work for 14 days once they are back in shanghai.
The local citizens have done a great job heeding the government’s call to self isolate, even when healthy, and the streets are pretty empty and even restaurants and shops that have reopened are mostly serving one or two customers.
If the goal is to completely eradicate the virus then the approach of the CCP seems most effective. Unfortunately it comes at a huge economic cost. Nobody will ever know if the eventual economic repercussions will be worse than the virus hit if they hadn’t put in the restrictions here in China. We may, however, get a view on how putting the economy first and virus control second will fare with the current reaction in the United States where I don’t think there is the will to take measures the Chinese have taken due to fear of disrupting the economy.
I really don’t know what’s the right choice but my chance of catching COVID here in Shanghai is now less than in California.
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But we don’t know if your risk is less in Shanghai compared to California because testing now, even with limited supplies, is being done more in California than in Shanghai.... and that is how you control numbers and narrative
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@Mike
Do you have any official data to back your claim that testing is being done more in California than in Shanghai? I
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@Mike Shanghai is fine- my family's been here through all this and we feel completely safe.
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China is doing what it does best, which is controlling the narrative and the news. Nobody has the foggiest idea what actually goes on in China. It is well known that the economic numbers coming out of China are all made up, it reports what it wants the international media to believe and what suits the communist party regime. Why should anybody think that it would be anything different with this epidemic when the stakes are so high? During Mao's great leap forward in the 50's, 25 million Chinese died of starvation in the rural areas, the international media did not come to know of the crisis until years later. Same thing happened during the cultural revolution, when millions were murdered by Mao and the communist party purges. For a few weeks during this epidemic, the facade came off the media control and the news quickly came out about the epidemic. The news was likely seen as a threat to Xi Jinping and the Communist party ruling elite. The officials are probably responding with a combination of enforced quarantines, driving the infected underground, quietly cremating the dead and controlling the media. In the US now, Trump is almost sure to lose the November election because of this crisis. If the Chinese government is responding to the crisis with its usual bag of tricks, it may not last long either.
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@Rahul you wrote, "Nobody has the foggiest idea what actually goes on in China."
I'm one of over a half-million expats living in China. Locals in my community are pulling together and working hard to cooperate with the efforts. In Shanghai I have freedom of movement and can access my normal stores, restaurants, public transit, health clinics, and my place of work.
I'm actually happy to be here where the hysteria has calmed down significantly. Many of my colleagues here feel the same. What is being reported in the media does not really match our experience- though we do enjoy a higher standard of living than most.
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@Max Flavor Greetings from Springfield, right across the river!
@Rahul Refer better to the great ethnic situation from India. You may be less out of sink on that.@Rahul Refer better to the current tremendous ethnic situation from India. You may be less out of sink on that.
“The ruling Communist Party hails the slowdown of the outbreak as a sign of the superiority of its authoritarian, top-down political system that gives officials nearly unchecked power.”
Assuming China has truly contained the outbreak in their country, it is indeed impressive, but personally, I am not willing to cede control to an authoritarian government to handle this crisis, because of the dangerous precedent it would set (with this administration in particular).
From discussions I’ve had with physicians, the general consensus is that this outbreak is going to get worse before it gets better, and COVID-19 may end up becoming as endemic as the common cold, albeit more deadly. If that’s the case, are we all to stay on lock down each year throughout COVID-19/cold & flu season??
I feel for the elderly and immune compromised who are at grave risk with this outbreak, and steps must be taken to ensure the health of those at highest risk. But in my opinion, the lesson we learn from this should be the importance and benefits to humanity of universal healthcare, not the virtues of ceding our freedom to an authoritarian government (that as we know, generally acts in its own interest, not humanity’s).
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@Fed Up Funny how you didn't get any rapid responses or agreement to this well-thought analysis from apologists of Chinese authoritarianism here or abroad.
Perhaps the very same people cheerleading draconian and ineffective measures against civil liberties (because you can't simply stop an infectious disease like this from becoming endemic in the population), are the very same people attacking progressives in other articles for their "socialism" and taking away their hard earned money or economic freedoms for, say, universal health care?
It's only the poor who have to give up rights, ultimately, while the rich can work from home and get meals delivered to them, and generally step over the people without masks on the sidewalk.
@Carol Goter Robinson Thank you for your response. Like most NY Times readers, I am far from a gun-clinging libertarian, but like you, am a bit puzzled by the praise being showered on a regime for operating the way these same commenters fear Trump will act if the GOP continues to enable him.
Sure, it seems Xi and the Chinese government acted swiftly and efficiently to get their situation under control (only after the initial cover ups and denials, and we honestly still don’t know if the outbreak truly was contained, and if it has been, by what measures; I’m personally skeptical of their latest reported death toll from the collapse of that hotel housing quarantined patients).
But do we really want all that comes with their capability to act so swiftly and efficiently (state run media, constant surveillance, religious persecution of Muslims, fealty to the Party that’s required by law, not to mention... no access to The NY Times or most of the internet)?
I’d rather we come up with a humane way to solve this.
I'm sure it helps that China has a surveillance system in place that allows every citizen's movements to be being tracked. Add to that flying drones with cameras that scream at people to go back home and real threats of prison and sure, it might slow the virus. I'm not so sure that would work so well in most free societies though. The government also doesn't have a great history for honesty, even in this current crisis, so the chances that they are truly controlling this situation is doubtful. And not to cry over split milk but this pandemic should never have happened in the first place given the history of SARS.
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The survillience state did not help, in fact. Public health authorities had to put notices on Weibo (China's Twitter) in search of missing potential patients who took trains, while everybody's travel information is well recorded by public security authorities. Why not directly request the data inter-departmentally? Because of the bureaucratic procedures which will take far more time than asking the public for help on the Internet. A fragmented authoritarianism like China is only strong at suppressing dissent, but those tools never work for genuine public interest.
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Not everything is about economics and individual freedom, sometimes you have to sacrifice these for the good of society and mankind. I think the Chinese government has done the right thing.
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Sure Draconian measures to suppress COVID 19 seems to be working based on Chinese figures but who believes that to be accurate or credible? Besides there is subversive Chinese Government effort to put the blame else where for the initial COVID 19 virus release. So the real question is, Will China except their own initial mistake handling the situation and will they stop spreading propaganda and politicize what is now turning out to be international pandemic outbreak?
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@frank There are many things that China and other governments have done. Some are the right thing and some are the wrong thing, sometimes in hindsight only and sometimes because of systematic problems or virtues with leadership style. People do need to make sacrifices for the good of society, and also need free access to information and speech in order to be able to evaluate which is which (that part isn't only the leadership's job, as it may be their system which contributed to the problem in some ways).
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@frank the right thing? China was warned years ago because of SARS but they still kept those inhumane animal markets. It broke my heart when I saw videos on Twitter about those poor animals. And China is still probably allowing those markets to flourish.
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A strange article. It quotes criticism but offers no alternative to China's approach.
According to the Prof. Marc Lipsitch quoted in the article: "40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year" with the Covid-19 coronavirus.
As it is new, nobody has built up any resistance to the virus.
The current mortality rate in Italy is 3.5%. British experts think the global mortality rate will be around 1%.
This is a doomsday scenario of collapsing societies and millions of (mainly old) people dying.
Yet China seems to have stopped or at least delayed the spread of the virus.
It may have used "incredible" methods, but nobody has any better ideas.
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The alternative that the article mentioned was to quarantine people at home but not shut businesses. In fairness to China, they were the first place with an outbreak and things got out of hand, so their response had to be more severe to drag things back.
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Hard to credit China for their response when it’s lax public health policies and open air animal markets have now created two completely new viruses in the last 18 years. How did China not learn from SARS that it’s societal practices were setting up the whole rest of the world with risk of novel, deadly contagions?
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No, they did not manage to stop the spread of the virus. Official statistics in China has always been political. I know it could be hard for Westerners to understand, but in recent weeks there are clear signs (and leaks) that Chinese local officials were pressed to add no more new confirmed case, and their only logical response is to report fake numbers, since they don't have to be accountable to the public.
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'Some experts are increasingly wondering if China’s lockdown will become pointless the more widespread the virus becomes. Given the global spread of the virus and the difficulty of spotting mild cases, they say, it is unlikely that it will ever be completely eliminated — even in China.'
These are probably not the same experts that appreciated the time these draconian lockdowns bought to come up with vaccine.
Unless the vaccine won't be available to people with no/limited health care - in which case we should probably listen to Joe-it's-pointless-Sixpack - I applaud the action, whatever the motives there may be.
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Exactly. If the disease spreads slowly, medical facilities will be less swamped and will have more time to ramp up.
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