Survival mode: How ridiculous - I thought you had something to do with The University of Chicago - apparently not!
2
To take a positive view of a potentially horrendous situation with supply chains seriously interrupted:
Perhaps people will figure out that they don't actually need a lot of the STUFF they feel they can't possibly live without, such as ahi steaks, the latest gadget, or a new car.
Perhaps people will figure out that the globalized economic model that brings them all their can't-do-without STUFF, also means they are dependent on foreign sources for stuff they actually do need, such as many medicines and medical supplies, a supply chain out of our control.
Perhaps people will figure out that if they lessened their consumption of all the latest STUFF, it would do much to lessen anthropogenic global warming, more than the feel-good banning of plastic straws for instance. ["Dramatic fall in China pollution levels ‘partly related’ to coronavirus"; https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/01/dramatic-fall-in-china-pollution-levels-partly-related-to-coronavirus]
Perhaps I'm just doing you-know-what into the wind.
No, make that likely.
1
I just heard a very honest comment from a health care provider in the Seattle area hard hit by the Corona Virus. The reporter asked if there were enough Intensive Care beds available to treat the sickest patients and the Doctor stated unfortunately not.
Now the reality is setting in. Folks the infra-structure to attack the Corona virus is insufficient. There are not enough testing kits, hospital beds, employee personal protective suits, medications or Medical professionals to adequately deal with this virus.
As long as NOT MY PRESIDENT is in charge I have no confidence whatsoever in his administration's plan of action.
Only the Medical professionals, epidemiologists, virologists, and public health professionals, who understand these things, should be discussing what is needed. Until there is a coordinated full war time National approach to this crisis, things will get worse.
1
@Coolhandred If the people that die from this are elderly, with a serious under lying respiratory condition, there will not be enough emergency care to save them. This group is already threatened by the flu and pneumonia. Covid-19 is just one more deadly threat to them.
The medical infrastructure is already stressed from elder flu and pneumonia patients. The only positive aspect is, the people most in need are already at the front of the line for aid.
There are no reports of otherwise healthy children dying from this. For the most at risk, this is another risk. Everyone else can carry on. Close contact with elder relatives will have to be monitored and perhaps modified.
1
And it’s probably too late now anyway. It’s here. By the time the government gets its act together, everybody will be recovered or dead.
1
A lot of hyperbole here...
1
This piece takes a medium-term view. The stock market went up today, but the number of reported Corona-virus deaths in the US rose to 6. More important, the number of sites where cases have been identified has been spreading: Florida, Rhode Island, New York, as well as Washington. It has also spread to many countries. Whether the outbreak will be limited when the weather becomes warmer is not known. If not, it may turn out to be a pandemic lasting 2-3 years.
Globalization. international travel, over-population, and crowding into cities have set the conditions for this outbreak. Experts like Dr. Prasad can make informed guesses about the economic aspects of the crisis and that is helpful to savers and investors.
1
We should always remember that the stock markets are an indicator of the economy, not the economy itself. Of course, since millions now have 401(k) plans, they could easily cut back their spending in anticipation of leaner times, making the market a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts. Yes, the downward spiral of recessions reflects both hard information, like losing your job, and the psychology of people not buying or refusing to take on debt.
The stock market has been irrationally high. One major factor has been low interest rates so that the wealthy and the funds management companies have thrown money into the market because there was no other good place for it to go. This drove the market up and thus a correction was required.
Also, the huge tax cut given the wealthy meant they had more money and needed someplace to put it. The idea that federal regulations either were being wiped off the books or won't going to be enforced meant that businesses could relax and do whatever they wanted to, no fear. Why wouldn't the market go up?
Prosperity is almost always, in hindsight, seen to be illusional, booster by artificial factors that couldn't be sustained. The international supply chain now looks like a huge weak point. A system was built without an alternative plan.
1
The irony is that Trump's reflexive dishonesty & dismissal regardingf the #Coronavirus may worsen the financial fallout from the crisis & ensure his defeat.
2
As the economy shrinks, more and more workers and small businesses discover that some of them are not needed, and compete to stay out of that category. Some of them have to lose the competition, or the economy does not shrink (which it is doing). In a market economy, the losers are on their own.
Helping the losers survive (carrying them) until the economy expands to need them again is socialism and involves a powerful and probably bigger government. But if government is the problem, the losers are on their own. Businesses will go bankrupt and workers will survive on savings and charity or will not live as long as they had hoped.
Transparent and accurate information is nice in theory. But in practice the economy is like Wile E. Coyote at the edge of the cliff: he can step beyond the edge of the cliff and not fall for a while, but only if he does not look down while taking tiny steps back to solid ground (while sweating bullets and showing a sickly smile). If people believe the economy will shrink, they will quickly take actions that will guarantee the shrinkage while minimizing its effect on them. This is why markets boom and bust.
1
Donald Trump has created an American economy in his own image and likeness. He has been a classic risk taker who borrowed heavily and went bankrupt numerous times on his way to attaining fame and wealth. The problem is that the U.S. government can't afford to go bankrupt. Lowering taxes on the wealthy elite class as well as large corporations led to stock buy backs that inflated equity prices--and the American public eagerly jumped on board. When the Federal Reserve tried to normalize rates in Decmeber 2018, the market tanked. Soon the Fed will lower rates again, but this will only delay a further downturn. I agree with Mr. Prasad's central premise here: 2020 will be a down year. However, I believe the disruption in supply chains will also hurt the big box stores that rely on the 'just in time' inventory method. Futhermore, in every recession over the last four decades, the Fed was able to substantially lower interest rates. These rate cuts were usually around 500 basis points (5%). With the current Federal Fund Rate around 1.75%, the Fed no longer has the power to lessen the severity of the next recession which will likely happen in the second half of this year. I hope I'm wrong.
3
There is very little hope this would not be a pandemic. New cases emerge independently all over the world, and e.g. Italy has not at all succeeded to contain the epidemic, even if it a Western country. The first case in Nigeria is a person, who visited Italy, and so is the first case in Finland.
The virus is problematic in the sense it can be asymptomatic for weeks, during which the person in question spreads it in the community.
Hence: learn to wash your hands properly; close the facet with a tissue or elbow in public toilets; do not shake hands; avoid crowds, and places like airports and railway stations. Stop traveling. Work remotely, if you can. And consider to have some extra food at home in case you are put in quarantine. (Well, home delivery works, but pizza for two weeks might be boring).
3
Many old people and immune-compromised people will die.
The fact that the US isn't taking greater steps?
Feature, not a bug.
Less old people/people on disability = reduced consumers of Medicare/Medicaid, health resources and social security once this is over.
That being said - there are quite a few old people with health issues running our government. There may be a silver lining to all of this.
2
Why are people freaking out over this? It is literally 1% worse than the flu. Get a grip already.
1
Some of us have family and friends who are immuno compromised or elderly. So yeah, we are worried.
2
I'm skeptical of the term "survival mode". It implies the market could easily collapse imminently, ironically used in an article about how we shouldn't panic. The author spends awhile explaining the global economic situation, and it seems like a minor hiccup. Granted, I'm not wealthy, so I'm not invested in the market at all (not even retirement, as I do not make enough money to save—as soon as it comes in, it goes back out to pay bills), so maybe it's more dire if you *are*, but still.
Then the author tries to analyze "uncertainty", a concept so quotidian that analysis is essentially not possible. Uncertainty exists everywhere all the time, so telling us that uncertainty is why the market went down is kind of like saying air is why Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. Sure, it had an effect, but it's always there, so what changed?
So far, nobody can point to any specific thing that has changed. I wish reporters would stop pretending we know why the market does what it does and start explaining what that movement *means*. All I see is a bunch of rich people grumbling about something that's still making them money for doing nothing.
1
Mr. Prasad. Thank you.
At a time like this, the best we anxiously expect is information and awareness. Because, this only helps people to know what is going on. No one wants to be sick. When an epidemic strikes on a national scale, people need to be aware, what one has to do. The problem is now impacting globally.
Elected officials must get aside, and allow the experts and scientists in health care to come forward. They can best guide the government, and the people.
We have to appreciate the free press and their role playing. The news media and major tv channels continue to provide updates and the knowledge which people look forward to, each day.
1
If there is any silver lining out of this Covid-19 mess, I hope China gets serious about putting a stop to consuming endangered wild animals like pangolins, bats, civet cats, tigers, bears, rhinos, elephants either directly as game meat or in so called 'traditional medicines'. Previously SARS was started from bats passing the virus to civet cats that were eaten by humans in China. Look at Corona virus as mother nature striking back against wanton human destruction of the natural world. I really hope authoritarian Chinese govt make this one positive step for the sake of humanity, ecology and economy.
5
We talk alot about health insurance and the lack of it (and we certainly should) however there is another related factor: lack of proper sick leave.
Back when i still lived in the US I would come into work even if I was not feeling well. Why? Because I did not get paid otherwise. I think I had a total of 3 sick days per year.
Contrast that with the 3 weeks or so I have now (and the fact I live in a country with an imperfect but vastly better public health system than the US).
4
You want to get money into the economy? Give it to the low income. They will spend it instead of sitting on it. Remember these are the same service workers who won’t be getting a paycheck when businesses shut down because of the Coronavirus. Very few service workers have adequate sick leave to deal with this. A few weeks of no work and they will desperately need it.
6
So far, the tip of the spear of Trump’s coronavirus policy is simply not to test for it, so questionable cases are not identified and many with the virus will roam freely while spreading it. Take it from a physician, this is a psychotic response to a global threat.
6
He who lives by the sword dies by the sword. Denigrating science, attacking the very nature of facts, claiming that government officials are all part of a deep state conspiracy that can’t be trusted, that experts know nothing, all leads to a citizenry that has no trust. Then when you need people to trust you, believe in citizenship, work together and help each other, you find that no one believes you, and you lead no one.
39
The plain fact about corona virus is that people, including governments and markets are panicking. The corona virus is more contagious than flu, it has a longer incubation period, and is probably about 10 times more lethal. In the end, it will likely be less lethal than the 1917 flu, and much more lethal than the usual seasonal flu. The problem is that stopping it is likely to be about as successful as stopping the seasonal flu, which is to say, not successful at all. We might be able to slow down the spread of the disease, but we won't be able to stop it. Slowing down the spread, might make sense if there were a vaccine on the horizon that could be widely distributed in the next few weeks. Otherwise, slowing the spread of the disease, is more akin to taking a band aid off slowly rather than quickly. It hurts a lot more, and the pain lasts longer, but in the end, the band aid is off either way. In the meantime, all of the precautions: factory closings, travel restrictions, etc. are doing real damage to the economy worldwide. The cure may not be worse than the disease, but, if we're not actually accomplishing anything, the unsuccessful measures to contain the disease will do lasting harm, long after corona virus has run its course.
14
@chip "...much more lethal than the usual seasonal flu..."
We do not know this to be true and, if you did, you should supply either your professional authority for saying this or some source for this conclusion.
The ratio of deaths to infection is a very poorly defined category at this point. In other words, lethality could be much higher or much lower than current statistics indicate. Lower? Yes, because we don't know accurately how many people have been infected, which is the top part of the equation in coming up with death rates. There could be thousands more people sick who are not reporting, assuming they just have the flu or who are not being tested. Also, testing itself appears to be way behind the curve.
The main conclusion we can draw is that we can't draw strong or definitive conclusions. The best we can say is that the virus appears to be acting in certain specific ways.
Otherwise, no offense intended, but I disagree with the entire conclusions above because they strike me as too broad and too little referenced to sources.
4
OK, fine. And what are you doing to help by writing this (obvious) article?
1
More nonsense. Get a grip Prasad and stop being a "the sky is falling" chicken little!
2
The USA and the EU should cancel the No-Visa requirement between the them. Everybody that applies for a VISA should present a doctors certificat of no contagion of the virus. You have to hold the bull by the horns and stop the frivolity. Whwn a certain region , province or State reaches a certain level of contagion should prohibit all meetings of certain size and all spectator sports should be played with no-spectators. They can watch on TV like is being done in N of Italy.
2
I blame Obama
4
Many of these supply chain problems can be laid at the feet of corporations that want to suck up every penny at the expense of our health. How absurd is it that I live in one of the top pharmaceutical hubs but must get the actual pills from China?
4
In the immortal words of Hunter S. Thompson, “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.”
Trump and his ilk have no clue when it comes to not having a silver platter world served to them. Daddy gave him his little boy golf clubs and solid gold toilet. (That’s just odd in so many ways). Later in his life, Trump was dropped into the White House, likely with the assistance of Russian nogoodnicks.
Obama left the country with a vibrant economy, Trump gooses it with tax cuts for all the swamp people, elimination of protections for workers and the environment, and lies so much even the devil is scratching his head.
Now he has problems. Nobody else to blame. Nobody to mock or call a childish name. Nobody smart to ask for advice. Good people will still step forward to help this world. Trump can watch.
8
Great comment. Accurate assessment.
2
I would agree, the World is in a panic survival mode out of its' own "need for greed" as many times before.
In a time when illusions shattered, and political leaders speak of themselves as divine, God has a promise to show us the Way. God created the heavens and earth, and thus far, we are hell-bent to destroy each other and His planet for political, financial, and self-motivated reasons.
Think of this for a moment; The United States Constitution starts with this, “We the People,” and thus far, we have reverted to “I the Wealthy,” and “We the People” are no more than slaves as “Citizen Consumers for the wealthy.”
My Grandmother once said, “that the Wealthy Degenerates as they have passed, will rise and fall blaming each other for their incompetence, and We the People will be left holding the empty bag of lies and propaganda. The hopes and dreams for “We” will be just another fallacy against God and his people. He will rise quietly and repay those in kind for hurting his people.” --1968
1
You make a good argument for Bernie’s progressive movement. Please vote.
1
@Brock It's not about any candidate, it's' about the truth. Candidates for public office are not Gods; though many believe they are.
2
I can't help but feel the headline for this op-ed stokes the very panic driving the stock markets down. The last paragraph sees thrown in -- a token gesture. Thanks.
1
IOW: Trump flu => Trump slump.
1
"Governments cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can ensure the transparent and accurate flow of information." .... And therein lies (word choice intentional) the problem. The President of the United States claimed it's a hoax. He ignores scientists. He goes to the podium with no facts (or therein lies the problem). The Vice President of the United States - aka the "Designated Scapegoat" - track record on health issues is abysmal. Corporations, the wealthy, and presidents cronies can afford to do... nothing. Deregulation of environmental and health standards (Example: reversal on regulations on TCE an children's heart defects). The good news is the president doesn't read the NYT so he won't know China is classifying people)..........Transparency? Truth? Evidence? Science? Experts? Cite five words never uttered in the WH.
1
The fact that the 2020 economic system in most countries around the world revolves around being geared up to max doesn't help.
A lot of people need to earn as much money as humanly possible just to cover their rent/mortgage payments, many shops and restaurants need to bring in as much money as is possible just to cover high rents on their business premises ... which are often so high because of inflated property prices, and many people and companies are leveraged to the eye-balls with debt.
There's no space to back off too much from a super-geared up economy, because basically the economic geniuses who put this thing together never bothered to account for anything other than perpetual growth.
4
2 people in the US have died and it's the end of the world according to the media.
2
This Corvid-19 could be a blessing in disguise for alerting humankind about the dangerous unsustainability of our global (dis)order and its monetary, fiscal, economic and social subsystems.
Eswar Prasad clearly outlines how this infestious disease impacts the global community and a group of economists recently conclusion that Corvid-19 is testing the monetary/financial system and they show how inedequate the present monetary measures are to control the pandemic.
Dr. Prasad’s monetary and financial policy suggestions are logical in his traditional economics framework, but his framework is deficient.
I am proposing a global solution to deal with the present and future pandemics and with the looming climate catastrophe by transforming the unjust, unsustainable, and therefore, unstable international monetary system by basing it on the carbon standard of a specific tonnage of CO2e per person. Pursuing this monetary approach, the financial system’s money creation will revert back to the public sector where, in president Lincoln’s words, money is not the master, but the servant and where the sustainability direction of the economy is democraticlly decided. The commercial, intellectual, ecological and strategic dimensions of such monetary appraoch are seminally presented in Verhagen 2012"The Tierra Solution: Resolving the Climate Crisis through Monetary Transformation" (www.timun.net).
1
@Frans Verhagen
The SARS epidemic early in the Third Millenium CE alerted "humankind about the dangerous unsustainability of our global (dis)order and its monetary, fiscal, economic and social subsystems." Little was done.
1
“Why were stock markets sanguine for weeks after the outbreak began, and why are they now in full-blown panic mode? “
As a general rule, people are stupid. To get an idea of this, one needs to look no further than the election of Donald Trump. Here we have a person who is more selfish and self-centered than most. Plus, he is the poster child for narcissism. Hardly qualities that made a good leader. But here we stand.
Fear also makes people stupid. Trump’s Base comes to mind. Yes, immigration needs to be dealt with, but the greater threat against middle American jobs is automation and artificial intelligence.
Which brings up to the stock market. For weeks, the threat from China was just that, a Chinese problem. Now people realize that viruses travel, especially if they are highly contagious.
Lastly the stock market is SO VOLATILE because of computer trading. An algorithm knows no boundaries. It cannot put anything into perspective. So when the dominant action is selling, the algorithms and traders pile on, en-mass, magnifying everything by orders of magnitude.
Speculation makes everything on Wall Street a thousand times worse than what they’d normally be.
Which brings us back around full circle, to how stupid people are. Especially inept leaders, their followers, mindless machines, greedy traders, and this Administration.
Pence and Trump are leading this effort. What could possibly go wrong?
6
Hang and rattle. We will get through this. Good luck.
1
Too big too fail?
Lol, have fun now, Citi Bank
1
Brookings. Anti-Trump "think tank". LOL.
1
What crisis? Still partying hard in the US of A.
1
Science!
1
Lol. Can't wait for the drop to zero.
1
One of the people they should talk to is Eric Trump. He has a college degree and has been on Fox News to talk about all the success of the Tump adminitration.
1
I can just imagine Pres. Trump reading this headline and then immediately calling the author to offer him a bribe to muzzle him.
2
Another dumb liberal professor who has no clue how markets work.
The price of great stock is down. Some one will scoop up bargain priced stock, and then the market will rebound, making some one immensely rich.
It always happens.
That is what will happen.
2
Dream on.
2
Ah, it's ok folks - uber-ignorant gasbag and trump devotee Rush 'Medal of Freedom' Limbaugh says it's just a cold.
Unreal.
2
America's God otherwise know as the dollar is in peril not to mention all of us humans.
1
What's needed most in VUCA times (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) is effective truthful, trustworthy, transparent authentic leadership. The last thing we need is a corrupt bully who knows nothing about leadership and show little care for human well being beyond his personal self-interest.
These are highly unusual times - we cannot allow this cabal of incompetent moron run our government off the cliff. We all go down if these people remain in office.
This is not a time for "middle-of-the-road" thinking. We go forward with courage.
1
Now, watch Trump flail like a beached whale. Once people start hurting, his "safety net" will disappear, revealing him to be the clueless, ignorant fool that he is, whose only skills are spin, PR and lies.
3
Incompetent trump must go!
1
Black Tuesday.
2
keep your head down and keep working. if you're sick, stay home. keep working. keep working.
and vote progressive in 2020. let's change this ish.
1
I’m an Arizona guy who agrees with you. Elect Mark Kelly!
1
SUPER-CALLOUS-NARCISSISTIC-XENOPHOBIC-POTUS is in “charge”. We’re all in survival mode!
Super-callous-narcissistic-xenophobic-POTUS!
Even just the sound of it is something quite atrocious!
Sure enough all words from him
Now border on the bogus.
If we shout ours out with vim
We soon will find our focus!
Super-callous-narcissistic-xenophobic-POTUS!
Even just the sound of it is something quite atrocious!
Because we did not shout it out
To warn of things to come,
Now we must more loudly shout
And not sit looking glum.
Now that we've all learned this word
Let's sing it loud and strong!
This POTUS is so awfully weird
Let's just not go along!
Super-callous-narcissistic-avaricious-POTUS!
Even just the sound of it is something quite atrocious!
So when times have got you down
There's no need for dismay!
This is not the time to frown!
Now join in the fray!
‘Tis the time to sound alarms!
We've oh so much to say!
Time to ward off all his harms
And send him on his way!
Super-callous-narcissistic-ever-lyin’-POTUS!
Even just the thought of him Is something quite atrocious!
Now we're plagued with prospects dim
And stuck with POTUS bogus!
Once this starts to get to him,
We then will find our focus!
Once this starts to get to him,
We then will find our focus!
Super-callous-narcissistic-xenophobic-POTUS!
Super-callous-narcissistic-avaricious-POTUS!
Super-callous-narcissistic-ever-lyin’-POTUS!
Every little Tweet from him is something quite atrocious!
1
President Obama put in place a system to deal with this type of international health crisis. Trump, out of stupidity and racist hatred of Obama and all his works dismantled it. Are we winning yet?
2
I'd be looking at those in cages along our borders with little healthcare available too.
2
If it gets in there, it will spread like wildfire.
1
SO THE WRITER'S RECOMMENDATION Is for the "transparent and accurate flow of information," which is precisely what Trump and his government of thugs, destroy, as their first order of business, replacing facts with propaganda. We are living under the rule of The Huge Lie, first described in Hitler's notorious book, Mein Kampf, where he says that a huge lie, told often enough, will ultimately be mistakenly thought to be true.
1
Business as usual might just become unusual.
A fear-struck landscape appears to lie ahead just over the horizon. This brave new virus needs to be countered with an all out effort at containment. This would provide a time period where treatments , vaccines, and economic preparedness could be designed and implemented. In the mean time , hang a cloth off a caribiner on your belt loop to open doors, press buttons, and wipe stuff off.
1
Our economic system of dog eat dog which in turn drives the health denial system is likely to kill more people than the virus itself. We can see the Republican health plan in action now -- hurry up and die.
3
This epidemic is worldwide, and is poised to take down the world’s economic fortunes for an unforeseeable time to an unknowable depth as recession or depression. Yet according to Limbaugh and Hannity, it’s all a plot to bring down the President. How can such ignorant, unintelligent people be in such positions of influence?
4
NPRs Marketplace SME rightfully said that the cost of Covid-19 won’t be due to the virus itself but the human panic reaction.
1
This article points out a basic truth - honesty competence, and transparency by our elected officials is critical at a time like this.
We now have a dishonest, morally bankrupt, lying president, surrounded by lying, incompetent yes men?
Well there you have it -
Vote my friends Bloomberg 2020
1
Got it. Agreed.
I dispute the assertion, in the last paragraph that "[g]overnments cannot eliminate uncertainty".
I suspect the U.S. is about to get an unpleasant lesson to demonstrate our over-reliance on Chinese vendors. Where is the news about how much of this nation's medication supply depends on China? Wouldn't that be one of the first questions a NYT editor would ask reporters to take on?
2
Obviously, "Make America Great Again" and "Make America An Impervious Stock-Market Utopia Because Of The Delusions Of One Famous Ignoramus" are not the same thing.
MAGA was junk talk from day one.
2
@JohnnyCakes Nature seeks equilibrium.
1
I guess now we'll all have to pay for Trump's folly of saddling our economy with a trillion dollar deficit to pay for his unnecessary tax cut, together with his additional stupidity in bullying the Fed to cut interest rates simply to goose the stock market. Now that a stimulus will really be needed, there's not much left to cut.
4
“The fundamentals of this economy are strong.” - Mike Pence, campaign of 2020
“The fundamentals of the economy are strong”. - John McCain, campaign of 2008.
2
I am worried that concerns about a few dead citizens are gumming up our wonderful economy.
1
This whole pandemic has been an amusing aside to the real problem.
A lack of common knowledge, and with the administration in place
common knowledge isn’t that common.
1
The remarkable thing about Donald Trump is that he is so nakedly self-serving in everything he does. Naming Pence head of the coronavirus response is yet another example.
And yet, roughly a third of our nation buys Trump's snake oil.
Racism and grievance are a potent mix of mind-numbing drugs.
2
What’s missing from your entire panic driving string of consciousness is any assumption about just how bad the disease really is. The more we learn about the virus, the less dangerous it has become including the fact the many never get sick and that most recover just like any other cold or flu. So are you assuming that it simply doesn’t matter or that the fatality rate is at some yet unproven level? Clearly the media is on a feeding frenzy as the headlines no doubt sell media but in the end, it may not be any worse than a bad flu which heretofore have not brought the world economy to its knees. The bottom line is that you and the NYT won’t let your inability to answer those questions keep you from generating a full on panic. As an aside, Trump is an imbecile but in this case, his accusation of the media stoking fear is warranted.
1
Mother Nature couldn't be happier.
1
Nothing like jumping the gun to set off a panic...
1
We are already using the word « rebound » ??? Things have already turned sour, beyond the stock market ???
Well... okay. I guess so, maybe.
1
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve
“…In what is already an infamous snafu, CDC initially refused a request to test a patient in Northern California who turned out to be the first probable COVID19 case without known links to an infected person…
“…The problems have led many to doubt that the official tally of 60 confirmed cases in the United States is accurate. “There have been blunders, and there could be an underlying catastrophe that we don’t know about,” says epidemiologist Michael Mina…“It’s been very complicated and confusing for everyone with almost no clarity being provided by the CDC.”…
“…CDC’s test uses the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay to find tiny amounts of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in, say, a nose swab. To make sure a test is working properly, kits also include DNA unrelated to SARS-CoV-2. The assay should not react to this negative control, but the CDC reagents did at many, but not all, state labs…
…
If this was an attempt to ensure continued use of and funding to badly-back-level “mom & pop” scale testing labs throughout some parts of the US – it’d expose a level of strategic negligence and clinical cronyism that’s put us badly behind the rest of the world in responding to a crisis like this one…
2
I’m a physician and I agree completely. Not testing or using invalid testing will only lead to proliferation of positive cases. Remember when Trump’s physician said all his tests were positive? In medicine we call a negative test ‘negative’.
3
No, the Corona virus has little to do with any problems in the wrold economy supply chain..
That mess was made by greedy CEOS and the FED which decided the stock market needed help, that corporate profits were too low and that it was impt. to produce goods as cheaply as possible exploiting people in distant parts of the globe esp China. So get rid of American industry as much as possible, make everything in China...Any major disaster in China could disrupt the so called supply chain. Why is everything and now including canned food made in the Far East? Frankly, something like this was nicely predictable.
Meantime, starting with Clinton -- Wall St. has no responsibility, and the FED lowered interest rates to create an "investor economy"-- aka high risk predatory capitalism. Supposedly the stock market involves risk -- I've lost $$ thanks to Fidelity and others. Most of my money is in bonds... If the numbers get low enough it will be "time to buy." That's the way it goes children. RISK and reward. and For heaven's sakes stop buying everything from Amazon and Walmart and buy and throw away less much less. Time to rein in the throw it out (preferably along with lots of plastic wrapping) economy. Reuse.... not recycle which is meaningless... China does not want our garbage and it's not nice to pollute everything.
4
It's 5pm on a Monday, in New Zealand and the NZX stock market nose dived downwards again. More red than black on the board. Expect Wall Street to do the same on Monday now more cases have been discovered in the USA and that the coronavirus is spreading undetected in the USA.
2
Although Mr. Trump will class this excellent article as unpatriotic liberal political bashing, it is right on target by speaking reality of the complex global reactions, regardless of what the markets do. The last paragraph, "Governments cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can ensure the transparent and accurate flow of information..... That, along with knowing that governments are doing all they can, might be the salve that everyone needs." It is difficult enough to evaluate facts and reality, but when the public loses its confidence in the dishonest spin masters, it becomes impossible.
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@AJR With his appointment of Mike Pence to "lead" the coronavirus response Trump moved to ensure the opaque and inaccurate flow of information.
11
@AJR -- Bingo.
Revoke FOX's charter until they acknowledge they're virtually facts-free.
9
@AJR
Amen to this! Sure, politicians fudge the truth all the time, but this Administration takes it to Olympic medal status.
8
Market economies are based on the free flow of information. We currently have a president who suppresses truth that does not suit him and lies outright. How can confidence be instilled in markets with this charlatan in the White House?
2
It would be nice if people who support the GOP because their personal wallets are fatter would begin to imagine a world where others matter to their bottom line. It isn't so much an issue of how many die; it's an issue of how many become ill -- what happens when the labor force is sick at home or, worse, come to work sick because how else is there to feed your kids?, what happens when the gig economy workers have no healthcare?
I order certain goods from Walmart online, and let's not get in as to why - and every single thing I customarily order is out of stock, and has been out of stock since last week. "Out of stock" - the most giant retailer in the entire world? Have supply line been disrupted? I wonder.
1
I have three jobs. One service industry, two gig jobs. I get two sick days a year. Low pay so no savings. When I stay home sick, the paychecks stop. So I am everyone like me are left with the choice of stay home and lose my car, housing, & healthcare because I can no longer pay the bills, or go to work sick. Y’all love paying those low wages, I hope you all love the Coronavirus you are going to get because people cannot afford to stay home.
This shows the danger of an economy based mainly in speculation. If you look at raw numbers, COVID-19 isn't that scary. It's infected less people than the common flu, and is less deadly than the common flu, yet the stock market isn't perpetually a shambles over a seasonal spike in flue cases.
To put this in perspective, currently the estimated number of cases for COVID-19 is less than 100,000 globally. In the 2019-2020 flu season (which parallels the COVID-19 outbreak more or less), more than 200,000 people were hospitalized for the flu. That's just the hospitalization cases, there are many, many more people who simply waited it out at home.
Simply put, you're watching the results of panic and overreaction by people and governments, fanned by a hysterical media that seems to be salivating at the prospect of an apocalyptic pandemic.
Sorry, but COVID-19 isn't the world ender you all seem to want it to be. It's just a nasty new strain of seasonal virus that people will live with every year like they do the Flu.
1
And of course the market is up substantially at the start on this Monday morning.
Well there goes the one trump positive thing he has done in 3 1/2 years. Time for the trump's to circle their wagons and start looking' to leave for the country they love so much. But, would Russia let them in?
3
Well, I've decided to look for the positives in this, less people around, cheaper air fares, cheaper petrol, cancelled exports means cheaper product in the supermarkets and lots of locals making home made produce and selling at market days. Whoo Hoo back to the sixties and the revival of arts and home made crafts makes for a much healthier society, overall.
There is a lighter side to this as the NZ Herald newspaper printed a photo of some guy dressed like he was going to the moon coming out of he supermarket with his supermarket trolley and someone pointed out that he forgot to cover his hands! lol!
Stress and anxiety can kill you. If the virus doesn't get you the worrying about it will.
2
The virus is serious, and will effect markets. But the evidence is that fear is driving the downturn more than actual data.
The virus is not the Bubonic Plague, nor the Spanish Influenza.
The Trump administration is so inept and staffed by incompetents that the management of the crisis is exacerbated into a comedy of errors. The result will not be good.
The best advice. Slow down. Take a breath. Go about daily business, wash hands, don't buy a mask and find someone on the Democratic side to vote for and support.
So the trillions we've spent on the military industrial complex to 'keep us safe' and protect our 'freedom' isn't worth spit against this enemy virus and its colleagues who will surely follow (being released with increasing speed from their permafrost domicile)? Meanwhile, the mentally ill child running the country has single handedly destroyed the countries pandemic infrastructure. Outrage doesn't begin to cover the emotional black hole our 'leaders' have created for their constituents.
1
To take a positive view of a potentially horrendous situation with supply chains seriously interrupted:
Perhaps people will figure out that they don't actually need a lot of the STUFF they feel they can't possibly live without, such as ahi steaks, the latest gadget, or a new car.
Perhaps people will figure out that the globalized economic model that brings them all their can't-do-without STUFF, also means they are dependent on foreign sources for stuff they actually do need, such as many medicines and medical supplies, a supply chain out of our control.
Perhaps people will figure out that if they lessened their consumption of all the latest STUFF, it would do much to lessen anthropogenic global warming, more than the feel-good banning of plastic straws for instance. ["Dramatic fall in China pollution levels ‘partly related’ to coronavirus"; https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/01/dramatic-fall-in-china-pollution-levels-partly-related-to-coronavirus]
Perhaps I'm just doing you-know-what into the wind.
No, make that likely.
1
Welcome to the Dark Ages 2.0. Why this is not considered terrorism is beyond me. The return to the Dark Ages is the stated intent of Bin Laden on down. The problem started in the lab that contains the virus in a country that interns religious groups. The results are profound.
What does scholarly and elaborately composed pessimism contribute? Does every tea leaf reader hope that events good or bad will follow the path of their prognostication merely so they can be "right"... earning them... what?
It just might spur people to prepare a little. That’s not a bad thing.
Maybe the genius Economists, MBAs, Management Consultants, Democrat and Republican politicians, the WTO, the IMF, and C-Suite exec's should have demonstrated better risk-management skills when they decided to architect a global economy with a single-point-of-failure in the form of a country of more than 20% of the planet's population.
With wet markets.
2
Why people didn’t panic when the pandemic novel swine flu h1n1 happened in 2009? Was it because we had a steady hand at the wheel and administration that seem to be credible than this current one? Are we now paying for all the constant barrage of lies from this President and his cohorts?
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In times of crisis, we need great leadership, and appropriate leadership. Trump is a poor, inappropriate leader. Biden, on the other hand, entered the White House during the Great Recession and was part of the administration that successfully pulled us out of that nightmare. Meanwhile, it shouldn't be too hard to see that this is hardly the time to vote for someone who just wants to bash corporations like Bernie does, and who hasn't the faintest glimmer of a clue about how to run one, let alone save all the jobs that they produce.
If you produce what people need you'll have no problems. So, most of the economy is at risk, because it's mostly useless junk.
I'll be more interested in what the great lie will be on why the working poor will have to pony up the dough to bail out the corporate overlords because their profits are down. We know the next great theft is coming because that is what the criminal wealthy do. They buy the government and then get them to privatize profit and socialize loss.
3
The working poor, most of whom have little sick leave, will bear the brunt of this epidemic. Then they will be made to pay for it so their corporate masters won’t have to pinch a penny. Sounds about par for the course in the USA.
1
Whoever the president, she or he does not have to be a genius. He/she has to be humble and really surround themselves with capable people. We all remember the obviously psychologically incapacitated Trump saying "I alone can fix it."
When someone informs you they are dangerously unsuitable believe them.
There is nobody at the helm and there is an iceberg ahead
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Great comment! I especially like the iceberg analogy.
Trump’s “I alone can fix it” moment should have derailed his campaign right then and there.
1
“... consumers, businesses and investors need to know that they have a reliable picture of the facts. ”
And now Trump’s chickens come home to roost. The “bully pulpit” of the presidency no longer exists. We (they, actually) elected an insult comedian to run our country, and he hired people even more venal and dumber than himself.
FDR could say, “We have nothing to fear but fear itself” and people listened. Who will rally the country now? Who will calm the fears of the world, assuring the nations that America will lead the way?
The reality show is over, Trump. Now comes reality itself.
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The market could have survived the outbreak of Coronavirus but for Mr Trump. Market has figured that Mr Trump is not competent to handle this crisis unlike Mr Obama. The problem is departments in charge are afraid to tell Mr Trump the truth or how to handle it to avoid his ire. Mr Trump is a one man show. I am waiting for him to say I know more about Coronavirus than the scientist and the Doctors and I alone can fix it. God save us all
1
The ridiculous Bushian/Republican response to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina certainly cleared the way for the Democratic Congressional victories in 2016 and for the eventual election of a Democratic President.
We're likely seeing a return set up--if the coronavirus spreads far and wide, the economic and lifestyle disruptions are not anything that the current administration has shown it can handle (whether one agrees Pence is being set up as the fall guy or not).
These random-act crises are the ones that truly test a government's mettle. Does anyone out there really think that the current administration has any?
The sad truth is, it may take such an obvious incompetent response to turn members of the cult of Orange away from their god and his facilitators. It may be the one thing that brings a Democrat back to the Oval Office. But I despair for the lives that will be disrupted, and even lost, in the process.
And I wonder why it seems to have to be this way, and why we can't just be smarter. It's tragic, but a 2 percent mortality rate may just be the price of recovering our democracy (and maybe getting universal health coverage).
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he coronavirus has already done enough damage to the stock market. The future of the stock market now depends on the coronavirus and the coronavirus epidemic is unpredictable, even medical experts cannot predict how this virus will behave.
In an opinion piece in the New England Journal of Medicine on Friday, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said the outbreak could be a once in a century pandemic.
Anyway, the global equity markets have wiped out $7 trillion from the levels of Feb. 19, when the S&P 500 notched its record, and the U.S. market alone has lost $4.3 trillion,
President Trump is asking the Federal Reserve to intervene to help address the possible fallout from the spread of coronavirus. The stock market is a proxy for the fiscal success of his administration and for the economy, Should the Fed cut the interest rate to make our president happy or will it really help?
1
Call for UNIVERSAL HEALTH COVERAGE FOR CORONAVIRUS and paid sick leave for those found with the virus now!
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Telling the truth has never been a virtue with Trump. He will blame everyone in sight for having sabotaged his efforts to “Make America Great Again.” Developing a plan to stabilize public spending and offering reliable and accurate information about the true nature of economic growth is not something the Trump administration is capable of doing. The man is a pathological liar.
1
Short movie theater stocks and go long on Netflix.
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Dear professor Prasad, thank you for pointing out what we 'commeners' already know for a long time.
Stock markets have no logic and in all honesty I do not care about shares going up or down. I also have no sympathy for those poor share holders who might need to cancel one of their many golf-club fees if shares go down.
Which brings me to my question, why is there not one word in your opinion piece about the real victims of this virus? You know, the sick or dead people?
1
Such a splendid time for a stable genius to take the Reins, and prove his Lineage and spectacular Education.
Right ?
1
This is precisely why it’s always been a terrible idea to allow a global economy that is controlled by only a handful of near-monopoly corporations (in literally every industry) to centralize their operations, sourced materials, service and labor in one authoritarian nation with a disturbing history of abuses and cheating. Capitalists are the most short-sighted, malignant, greedy, self-serving, destructive people (men) on the planet.
3
This paper's reporting, not even the editorials, spent the last three years practically giving Trump credit for something he didn't do, insisted that the economy was good and working for people simply based on market volume and job creation. The monthly jobs report was front page, top of the fold news every month it seemed. Trump's economy is great he should work this into an advantage but chooses to be divisive instead, the reporters wrote, clearly writing editorials probably the ones their editors wanted to see. Suddenly all the cracks are visible! What a surprise.
On the plus side, greenhouse gas emissions have plunged in China and throughout the world. Perhaps all Ed Marley and the Big Green Deal need are more viruses.
Also the NYT:
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Somebody please explain how you can be asymptomatic and still spread the virus. If you are not coughing or sneezing how exactly is it being transmitted if you are not spewing droplets because you are a symptomatic?
Have the 26 government employees who met the quarantined people arriving from China been tested? What is their disease status? They were allowed to commute from the base to the outside world. They must be the source of the community spread. Please report on this.
Also, a person was released in San Diego that later tested positive. Was that person ever recalled? And their contacts traced?
1
You still exhale.
Coronavirus also reminds us how filthy cash really is, and hopefully will accelerate the elimination of paper currency.
1
The uninformed are busy with the hysterical comments--so some facts:
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.
The press has no data that this flu will have a higher mortality rate.
Gosh, if the president was gonna run on the Economy, and it's Toast, what's he got left?
Other than War, of course.
Surprise.
3
I have no confidence in our current administration to lead the Nation through this crisis. Fire the Trump administration in November 2020.
2
Maybe not.
On today's Wall Street Journal front page:
"Global Stocks Rebound on Stimulus Hopes --
The Bank of Japan joins the U.S. Federal Reserve in pledging to take action"
2
The corona virus is likely no deadlier than the common flu virus and may actually be significantly more benign.
The closing of schools, shops, cancelling of international meetings, and disruptions of the supply chain are the actual casualties from this virus. Less so it's human collateral damage. This virus won't take your life, but it may take your livelihood.
Any economic fall out from the virus is the fault of the media and misreporting/corona virus click bait.
Read that last sentence twice.
1
That depends. It really is a threat to those with underlying health conditions. If that’s you or someone you love yeah you have reason to worry.
Pride goeth before the stock market fall.
1
For me, the take-away from this last-minute panic selling is that most people are largely ignorant of biology. For epidemiologists and public health experts, it's been obvious for weeks that coronavirus was a serious threat. I couldn't figure out why the market wasn't reacting.
Biology has a way of sneaking up and biting the arrogant. Give it some respect--it's more complicated than physics and finance :-)
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Mother Nature is non-partisan, relentless and will one day see to it that Homo Sapien no longer exists unless we heed the rules of Natural Order.
On the other hand, unfortunately, Homo Sapien has learned it will not live forever and wants to "get mine" before that day arrives.
trump knows that Mother Nature has given him 8 years to live, maximum. He is in the process of "getting his" and does not care.
2
Speaking not just about the Economy. Think how ridiculous those touch screen voting machines are now in the middle of a Pandemic. What will our Economy do if the November election is effectively cancelled due to quarantine? What if Trump cancels the elections in Key Swing states because of Coronavirus fears and the lack of voting alternatives. The US needs nationwide mail in ballots now!
3
In 2019 13 million people got the flu! 250,000 people were hospitalized and 14,000 people died. Did not make the news.
In China the coronavirus is on the decline.
In the US a few people get the Coronavirus it’s headline news and the Stock market tanks.
Makes you wonder if the virus is not a scapegoat for already failing market.
Under Trump’s reign he did nothing to strengthen the economy and it was very clear it was going to tank no matter what.
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@Joyce Miller Your comment represents the optimistic extreme of models which predict the course of this disease. There is a real possibility that you are right. On the other hand, the worst case predictions are frightening. Businesses don't like uncertainty and it is the wide range of possible outcomes that is the problem. I might add that in 2014 the CDC predicted that between half a million and a million people would get ebola. Less than 30,000 actually did. The reason for the far less serious outcome was the heroic effort to contain it. Only the paranoid survive. Our response will affect the outcome this time.
5
The main problem is that large number of people will get sick in a very short time because nobody has any immunity. This could cause the same amount of damage the flu takes months to do in a few weeks. That will cause our medical system to be seriously overrun.
3
"Governments cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can ensure the transparent and accurate flow of information. Even if the news is bad, consumers, businesses and investors need to know that they have a reliable picture of the facts."
Not this "fake news" government. I hope people wake up to what we have become and vote the GOP out of office, lock stock and stinking barrel.
2
It probably has more to do with exporting to China, since this became a pandemic in China, NZ meat exports are down 40%, log exports down 30% and other major exports to China are down about 20%. And this all happened before NZ got it's first case of the coronavirus. Apparently they have to stop exports because everything is piling up on the wharfs and the imported products aren't moving to their destinations because China has everyone locked up in their houses. Well, that's my take on it. Why would you stop workers going to work to unload imports off the wharf is beyond me. Surely there must be workers who can be scanned and tested before entering the docks and moving the product.
3
@CK : If they knew how to scan people effectively, they could have stopped this thing in China. Many people have mild or no symptoms yet are still contagious. That, and the ease of transmission is what's powering this epidemic.
1
I wouldn't keep calling coronavirus epidemic. The disease is almost certainly pandemic unless you live in the northern arctic circle. Maybe Svalbard? Antarctica and the Himalayas are maybe safe too. Anyway, the disease is going around.
Even without factories and travel and restaurants, sick workers mean business disruption. Productivity will go down. Negative productivity is called recession. It's increasingly obvious governments are powerless to do anything about it. Policy and money can only limit extent and duration and maybe not even extent.
Businesses are therefore left with the painful realization that most of the world's workforce is going to be out sick for an indeterminate amount of time. That's why stock markets are tumbling. That US investors so callously dismissed Covid-19 as another SARS is further proof why you should never trust Wall Street. The Trump administration won't make you feel any more comfortable either.
3
The coronavirus has put the world's economy in survival mode?
Yes, but what exactly does that sentence mean? Is it not a potentially very ambiguous thing to say that the virus has put the world's economy in survival mode? Here is one way of looking at it: The virus emerged, is damaging the world's economy, and every effort is being put forward in worldwide cooperation to stop it.
But here is another way to look at it: The virus emerged, and perhaps countries will cooperate in stopping it, but if contained and devastating certain countries only, damaging their economies and sparing others...well, can you blame these devastated countries if it's in their interest to see the virus spread to their neighbors as well?
In short, the coronavirus--all dangerous diseases along these lines--in the modern age should not be viewed for strategic and political/economic purposes as naturally occurring even if they did emerge naturally and/or by accident and instead be viewed as deliberate biological terrorism for the situation becomes the same beyond a certain point, that certain point being some countries are sickened and others spared and the sickened countries begin to feel the injustice of themselves alone subject to the disease.
We should already be wondering if the spread of coronavirus is now deliberate, that yes probably it emerged naturally but now perhaps more than a few nations think it would be best to have it spread worldwide for the sake of political/economic parity.
1
Climate change and worldwide epidemics are the canaries in the coal mine. Mother Earth is groaning under the strain of overpopulation, global warming, overconsumption of irreplaceable resources such clean air, water and hydrocarbons, industrial farming, poor sanitation ,etc. Unless population growth and pollution are controlled, global warming halted or significantly reduced and the consumption of irreplaceable natural resources reduced, the outlook for mankind in the not too distant future will be gloomy indeed. By outlook, I am not referring to the performance of the stock market.
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A question: At the end of this, can the US, Europe and other affected countries sue China in international court for this huge financial mess they started?
We have the evidence that it started in China.
This is not the first epidemic they started.
What more do we need?
Surely we can't let China walk away without owning up to their responsibility to the rest of the world?
26
@Bhaskar hmm you really want to establish that precedent given all the unintended consequences of American Empire building over the last 120+ years?
4
@Bhaskar No. No more than we can sue them to establish human rights.
2
@reid
The two are different from the perspective of locus standi, aren’t they?
We do have a locus standi since we are affected by the virus, while it is difficult to prove standing on their local human rights violation in a court of law.
The virus has upended so many plans and expectations. Worse than a natural disaster affecting only one part of the world, this is affecting the entire world. And as that dawns on all of us, naturally the markets are being hugely destabilized.
People have made investments and now suddenly what seemed a safe or sane investment is looking scary. Our futures are uncertain as well. Will we survive the virus? Will it leave us in bed or in quarantine for a long time? How will our friends and family fare? Will we have enough to live on? Will they?
There are suddenly so many uncertainties. And no way to gauge whether a decision is a good one or not. We’ve all entered new territory. And we’re not sure what we can rely on.
It’s a bit easier for me. A retired person. With some savings. But to what degree will I need to assist my son, who started a business last year? Or his fiancé who inherited some rental property she’s needed to sink money into? All sorts of plans have been upended, because people may not buy what others counted on selling. And families may need to help each other out.
There’s the macro uncertainty. And all the millions of micro uncertainties. And if there’s one thing that’s almost impossible to cope with actively, it’s uncertainty. We can cope in other ways, but there’s no action we can take to reduce the uncertainty of finances for daily living and health concerns about this virus.
Hang in there, folks. Use all your coping skills.
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@TheraP
I used all my coping skills while the ocean was crashing against my home and climbing my stairs during Superstorm Sandy, when I was terrified that the ocean would make it to
the top and drown me. I gathered my flashlights and lanterns and wrote poetry by lantern and flashlight, and drew a comic strip.
I used all my coping skills the final high tide receded, and when the sun rose, and I realized that I had survived the night. I walked onto the street, and joined the other zombie like survivors, surveying the wreckage .
I used my coping skills when I turned the key in my car and heard sickening clicking sounds before the car died completely, and I realized that there was no way out. I used all my coping skills as I colored flower after flower, trying to stay calm, in an obliterated City, with no power, no running water, no phone, cell, internet, electricity or heat, with no way of reaching anyone to try to get help. I used all my coping skills as I waited in dread to be plunged into the terrifying darkness each night.
I used all my coping skills through Sandy herself, though my entrapment, my rescue, my displacement, my return home, the bailing out of water, lugging moldy possessions onto the street, FEMA inspections, trips to the DRC (Disaster Relief Center ), trying to get a replacement boiler, replacement car, etc.
That was just the beginning. I became seriously ill. I have no place to live.
I'm EXHAUSTED. My coping skills are overdrawn.
17
@DJS
I wish as a nation we could do more to help you and all the others like you. Unfortunately, we live in a culture where it's I've got mine and you are on your own.
But your comment makes me more committed than ever to do everything I can to get out the vote in November. We are all overwhelmed to one degree or another, but we all need to rise to the occasion to ensure this never happens again.
10
@TheraP "Governments cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can ensure the transparent and accurate flow of information."
It would help if the Trump administration and Republicans would give transparent and accurate information but we know that they will continue gaslighting Americans about everything.
7
Sadly the two major recommendations -- transparency and putting cash into the hands of low-income Americans to give them some much-needed spending power to possibly keep the economy afloat -- flies directly in the face of everything this administration stands for.
Closing "unnecessary" offices that research and provide guidance on national and global health issues, obfuscation, and giving tax cuts to the very rich are what make this administration go. Anything else and they are way outside of their comfort zone.
We're on our own on this one I'm afraid.
228
@avrds I would suggest the immediate cessation of all taxes being submitted to DC. We now have taxes without representation of a functional government.
5
The good news (I suppose) is that this health crisis will not make Trump political rallies great again.
2
@DG
In the Vietnam War era, federal courts settled the obligation of citizens to pay federal taxes, regardless of whether those citizens support federal policies.
I dunno. This sounds like another Wall Street versus Main Street argument in favor of the investment side. Main Street will be affected as the Virus demands, regardless of what is done to mitigate it. 80,000 people have contracted the disease among China 1,500,000,000 citizens. 3,000 have tragically died - a death/population rate of rate of 0.002% It will get worse, of course, and profits may suffer for a time; but is it enough to bring down an Economy?
It seems to me that Wall Street's fears are that the exploding investment Market might suffer a few quarters of slower growth, revealing a bubble and threatening to burst it.
If the Coronavirus is as devastating as we are told, basic economics tells us that demand for goods and services will simply shift from video game production to Healthcare. And maybe that's not such a bad thing for Main Street.
1
My personal belief is that Bloomberg, not Sanders, is the one to help lead us through the health crisis and economic fallout here. He has a clear plan.
2
This whole thing is a hot mess.
I live in Seattle, and got sick a week ago Friday with a fever, cough, muscle aches, etc. I contacted my healthcare provider online and they treated me as if I had standard flu, told me I could go back to work 24 hours after fever subsided; I returned to work on Wednesday with a lighter cough per their instructions (with lots of hand washing, etc.). Now that I'm seeing all the "new" information on coronavirus, I'm concerned that is what I had, and that perhaps I've exposed people because I was given bad information (and never tested, and so I wouldn't show up in the data). I have a strong immune system and am not in the high risk group, but I fear for others.
No, this isn't good for the stock market. I think it's going to get a lot more disruptive in my area before things settle down - I think it's just barely getting started, and there will be huge ramifications not only for health but also the economy.
If the silver lining is that it brings down Trump and his incessant bragging about the economy, that's a plus, but a health crisis is a huge price to pay, and a stock market crash isn't what anyone needs.
I fear it's just getting started. I hope I'm wrong!
251
@Kristina, I live in Seattle too, and work in the health care system. I also fear that it's just getting started. I received three emails in the last two days from a state health care association pleading for PPE (personal protective equipment) for the Kirkland nursing home at the now center of new cases. If, after all the attention given to this particular location, including that the CDC was to be there today to help, they are still struggling to find enough masks and gloves, etc., then I'm not sure we can count on "government" help in the health or financial sectors.
27
@Already Gone It's not very reassuring, is it? I'm also reading about how medics/first responders have helped patients - while using only normal precautions, not masks etc - and then gone back out into the community. Only when some of those patients were diagnosed/hospitalized were they quarantined, likely after they'd inadvertently spread the virus.
If we can't even handle masks and gloves for medical workers and first responders....oh, we're in a world of hurt!
I've emailed my doctor again, something along the lines of "are you sure you don't want to test me?!" and we'll see what they say. I just don't think they - or anyone - knows what to do at this point, when it's already spreading.
14
@Kristina In 2019 13 million people got the flu! 250,000 people were hospitalized and 14,000 people died. Did not make the news.
In China the coronavirus is on the decline.
In the US a few people get the Coronavirus it’s headline news and the Stock market tanks.
Makes you wonder if the virus is not a scapegoat for already failing market.
Under Trump’s reign he did nothing to strengthen the economy and it was very clear it was going to tank no matter what.
3
Also a resounding vote of no confidence, doubtless fickle, by those who resoundingly voted confidence--equally fickle?--in Trump.
4
This is a test for the US and how well it really works in protecting it's citizens. This is where gun rights, abortion, the stock market and relying on prayer become unimportant. The Chinese government failed the test to protect it's citizens although it did rally in an amazingly efficient display once the reality of the situation was felt. Because our president is more concerned about the damage to HIS economy, I'm unconvinced he will be able to successfully handle this with any competence. Let's not panic. Stay informed by knowing what best to do on a personal basis to stay safe. This will be a test to Darwin's theory.
3
Why did the stock market near panic happen last week? Why is there a deep threat to the world economy? Because, without considering the implications, we have made ourselves too dependent on foreign suppliers. We tied ourselves into a system that must hum along at a certain speed for the supply chain to work and the economy to maintain itself or grow.
Individual companies are happy as clams to offshore work and production if it means higher profits. The CEO gets big bonuses, the stockholders aren't filing suits against the company and, on occasion, customers get somewhat lower prices (maybe). Why did we let so much of the fundamental base of the American economy move overseas? Individual decisions added up to a collective mess, the one we are in right now. It is the job of government to anticipate these kinds of problems and ensure they don't get out of hand. Hard to do when everyone at the top is getting richer and richer.
If the current situation shakes some sense into the American corporate culture, my wild guess is it would take five plus years to restore production here. More likely, if a pandemic does not develop or is less disruptive in a month or two, it will be back to business as usual.
2
@Doug Terry
The entire dynamic of "wall street" and large corporations is driven by only one issue, increased profits. That is the result of decades of seeking countries with cheaper workers and manufacturing sources.
This has led to a very interconnected world market. We are learning that there are good and bad circumstances for our world's economy. We also know that these situations require expertise, knowledge, questions, and compromise. Unfortunately, until we alter or modify the bottom of profits before all else, we are in a dilemma of our own making.
"The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode"
No, but certinly all the major news outlets have. Three thousand deaths on a planet of 7.3 billion?
Let’s all just calm down. Wash our hands regularly. Isolate the unlucky ones that are affected. Fostering panic, will not get us through this.
2
I'm sure the GOP solution to all of this is what it has always been: more defense spending. Lower taxes for the rich. Less of everything else for everyone else.
11
@Jim Anderson
Yes. Let the "free market" solve the problem. The problem is, there are many problems the free market can't solve and, in fact, it is not a problem solving mechanism except for getting a commercial product into the hands of the buyer. Otherwise, the free market doesn't care at all what happens. It is just a means of producing and selling, not a religious totem.
4
While the corona virus is the main theme in the media for some time and should be to educate the public, one new fact is hardly mentioned.
Climate change is still one of the worst dangers to the planet and will kill a far larger percentage of the world population than the corona virus.
It is no coincident that after the closures of factories in China their air is now the cleanest ever compared to other years.
9
Americans are very, very slow to wake up to the reality that the ME culture is doomed. Like it or not, people are interconnected. As Bernie Sanders said recently, what affects your family affects mine.
Get with this mindset, and you realize that universal health care is about your survival as much as it is about the survival of the "other guy."
So you get to ME through thinking US. Who would have thought? Certainly not Reagan, Bush, or Trump.
10
@Jim Anderson
I am no Sanders fan - though any Dem is better than what we have -- but I absolutely agree with your point, 100%.
1
Certainly no economist, to me the financial implications of the Covid19 crisis speak to our increasingly short-term perspective of a marketplace mindset. Yes, a large number of businesses, and thus individuals -- especially those with far less income -- will suffer. And we cannot be unsympathetic to the people who are hurt by the disease nor the economy.
But in regard to the market -- despite the newer small-world bazaar we live in, this unfortunate and potentially tragic 'correction' will be survivable. And the rich will still have their millions and billions. And the poorer will emerge greater in numbers and with less in their pockets. And ironically, there will be those who even profit from the virus in ways that seem unimaginable. 2020 will indeed be seen through a near-sighted lens.
5
With Coronavirus/CORVID, we are moving toward a major global crisis of both health and economics.
Where are the testing kits? The US is not prepared.
Cutting back on international travel now is equivalent to shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted.
We need to work together with our allies and trading partners on this.
Trump is completely incompetent – things will continue to get worse.
Leading Democratic candidates such as Biden and Bloomberg should announce clear policies on how to move ahead.
9
Bloomberg discussed on Sixty Minutes last night. People at the top need money and assistance instead of getting fired and slashing funds. Not sure about Sanders.
1
This puts me in mind of a forecasted snow day. All schools get closed, federal departments get closed, state of emergencies are declared.....then there ain't no snow. Be nice if it didn't snow.
2
That means trump can't brag about the Stock Market anymore - one of his major selling points.
11
We have basically two choices: The nations of the world can play a protracted game of 'tag team' with the coronavirus, where individual communities are endlessly playing catch-up with the virus as it spreads, first, from one victim here, to one person there, in two-week incubation periods that yo-yo out into the future until we finally reach the last infected person.
Under this scenario, people will panic (understandably), business suffers as a result as people avoid going out to eat, to sporting events, etc. The financial markets, behaving as one massive sheep herd, will react---surprise---accordingly.
Or...
We could simply have a mass quarantine involving the entire population of the United States, for example, and get all the worrying, suffering and fallout over in, say, three weeks to a month, rather than the several months to perhaps years of the present tag-team effort. Just give citizens a heads-up of a couple of weeks to prepare.
It may seem 'radical', but in both the short and the long run. it makes perfect sense. The question is, do we have the will to pull it off?
Of course despite all this talk of imminent doom and gloom, Americans can at least fully anticipate being emotionally comforted and spiritually uplifted by the calming, empathetic, and hopeful modern equivalent of a former turbulent economic era’s “fireside chats”, now also to be delivered by our current President from the People’s House. NOT! When pigs fly!
6
The BEST Hope: a new, competent President of the USA.
Period.
15
Well, you know how the saying goes. The only thing we need to fear, is fear itself.
That, and, probably the virus.
And definitely the Trump administration.
And is my QR code up to date? How can I check my QR code??
8
First, leaders with totalitarian tendencies do NOT disseminate accurate information. They are only interested in their own political survival. Second, leaders with totalitarian tendencies, place people around them who are political loyalists and NOT competent technocrats who know how to solve difficult problems. Third, confidence from citizens comes from having leaders who have a history of telling citizens the truth and NOT from leaders who are pathological liars. Let's be honest about our leadership.
9
God help us, I hope the death rate is lower than they say. I think Americans are still deluded that this country is exceptional in some way that will protect us from this. But our health care system is worse than many European countries and our federal government's response to this has been worse than inept. There is no way for Trump to spin this, and he does not know what to do. Why aren't all of the Seattle area's schools closed right now? Why isn't travel restricted and public gathering banned? Why aren't people being told to stay home? I don't think they're really trying to save people.
3
Over forty years ago I worked in an old style piggery. When the cold weather hit a flu-like disease would make the rounds amongst the younger pigs, the weaned ones. We dosed them with tetracycline but there was a small percentage that didn’t make it. Plastic bags were taking over at that time and since the pigs were fed a diet of table scraps, restaurant and bakery waste(Twinkies were loved by the porkers) the yards were becoming filled up plastic trash. I don’t know what this has to do with economics but I find myself returning to memories of the pig farm when I try it make sense of the predicaments we silly humans find ourselves in. The piggery was in the middle of suburban Sudbury MA. The pigs were shipped to slaughter by a semi, full of not too happy 250 pounders. No wet markets, at least outside of Chinatown in Boston. I remember being floored by a sickness that I probably got on that farm. That night, I literarily crawled to bed. The next day I wen’t to work. End globalism, end CAFOs and end the rigged casinos known as financial markets.
2
Dow Futures are up this morning and China is reopening factories as spread of the virus has slowed. The global economy recovered quickly from SARS and I am optimistic that it will from this.
It is becoming apparent that most people who get this virus don't get seriously ill and many don't even seek treatment or get diagnosed. The danger is, like with any flu like disease, primarily to the already sick and elderly. Fewer children have died of coronavirus worldwide than were killed by the flu last year in my county alone.
The worst part of the virus doesn't seem to be the virus itself, but the crisis narrative being created around it.
The media hysteria is starting to look ridiculous and self serving. The media requires a narrative of "crisis" to get ratings. And while the idea of a "conspiracy" is ridiculous, there do seem to be some on the left and in the media who are morbidly gleeful at the prospect of a recession during Trump's re-election campaign, and are jumping on this crisis as The Big One that will finally bring down His Orangeness. (Have they considered that global pandemics can also make people more xenophobic?)
Healthy people should go about their daily lives. Wash your hands, stay home if you get sick. Put off visiting elderly or immune compromised relatives for a while; maybe try to Skype or chat on the phone instead. Our focus should be on safeguarding the sick, vulnerable, and elderly until this passes, which it will.
2
@A F
"stay home if you get sick" - what world do you live in that you have sick leave? Not the world of many, many people anymore.
Worldwide governments can do more than deliver information. If we learn to behave as if our very survival is at stake ( news flash: it is) you marshal all resources and deliver international cooperation on a scale never before tried. No matter how draconian it sounds, when you have only bad options, you choose the least worst. If I were POTUS, I'd organize the G7 to coordinate a plan to take to the UN. It would include "martial law" to command that everyone stay in place for 14 days. We have a powerful and robust military and national guard network in the U.S. It may be the nuclear option. But, the slow loss of life and treasure we may be watching is a worse way to see us into a worldwide depression and untold misery.
1
Paranoia and fear can be as destructive as a virus that quite frankly is 98% inconsequential. We need to attend to the sick -- that's it. Go to work on Monday unless you are feeling ill. Avoid clogging up emergency rooms. Deep breath. Count to 10. The virus does not attack the young -- that is the most important thing. Yes, it is tough on people whose immune systems are weak. Thus, STAY HOME. The rest of us should get back to work.
When I went to the supermarket an hour ago, the store was surprisingly busy for a Sunday, and the price of the remaining clorox was about 40% higher. Cutting interest rates seems just a desperate move to keep the stock indexes up, and serves no purpose other than to keep asset prices high. Let the conditions set the prices. Markets fluctuate. There was no hue and cry to raise interest rates when markets were levitating. That means let prices come in and let young people get in at lower prices so they don't have to play the suckers game of buying at the top out of "fear of missing out". Let others add to positions in a balanced way as themarkets return to normal valuations. Now would be a the time to have a president that believes in science and is not a pathological liar.
4
Are Trump/Pence really the team we want in charge of this crisis? Milan had two international soccer matches in empty stadiums this week. Is the US ready to deal with closed arenas for NBA basketball, NFL stadiums for football and ballparks for the major league baseball season? And can anyone stop Trump from going to rallies so that his supporters do not have to risk their lives to hear his nonsense. (And most of them are convinced by Fox News that Covid-19 is a hoax created by the Democrats so they are safe as long as they trust Trump.) Not that having Trump in the WH makes us any safer. Things will change. When I go to my local health food market I cross paths with a few hundred customers and staff. And Broadway theaters hold up to two thousand seats. Movie theaters maybe 500. A NY subway train, maybe 1200 to 1400 at rush hour. A commuter train possibly 800. So what changes are Americans willing to endure because we were not prepared and are still not prepared medically to deal with this crisis? Simply trust Trump’s prediction that when the weather warms this will all be over? And how much of a financial beating can most people sustain and still feed their families if the markets keep dropping? Or if they work in the service industry and customers simply don't show up. Given time scientists will figure out a vaccine but what do we do while we wait? How about a trillion and a half fund to help Americans get through this crisis? Andrew Yang where are you with your plan?
2
Let's hope it doesn't get to that.
Just in case, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Leader Mitch McConnell better figure out how to work together and get veto-proof bills ready that ensure that the people are put first rather than the typical corporate lobbyist mumbo-jumbo which created the sinful orgy that followed the last financial crisis and elected Donald Trump.
We are a very rich country and if we don't take care of our own now, our dollars are not worth the paper they are printed on.
4
This new globalization has us all worldwide interdependent on each other. A sneeze in any far off place awaits us all. What we do in times of crisis says who we are too.
2
With the free movement of goods, services, and people from third world countries had to came the movement of pathogens from third world countries with underdeveloped public health to the developed world
The spread of Sars (from China) , Swineflu (from Mexico) and now the Corona virus are the data points
Economically speaking, it is just another derivative effect of globalization overlooked by advocates (Stiglitz, Krugman, Summers)
Stagnant wages for those in the US in the US competing with third world wages are another. Those , however,
were good for the owners of capital who organized the outsourcing
The Corona virus is not not
Having watched the incomes of wage earners stagnate for the past two decades, I have no sympathy for the market situation. Its steep increases have been made on the backs of workers who have no health insurance, no sick leave, no pensions and reduced social security and Medicare. In addition, our country has been so devoted to lowering taxes for the wealthy and corporations our schools, infrastructure, and all government services to the lower and middle class are suffering. Tough nut, investors. It is time you paid the piper instead of the working class.
9
@Patrick Stevens , it’s working class and poor who suffer most in a downturn, whose jobs and services and sometimes homes are lost. The CEO or big investors may lose when, say, restaurants close; but the servers, cooks, and other workers go first and worst. Retirees forced into the stock market by the bosses lose what little they had to live on after lives of labor. Not much room for schadenfreude, really, in such disasters as these.
6
@jb Every downturn since Reagan, the government solution has been to save the banks and bug investors by pumping huge amounts of tax dollars into the market, and to cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations later. It doesn't work. The market always over inflates. Let the markets fail and let the economy work it's way through a real recovery. Save the workers with the bailout money.
@Patrick Stevens, your solution is not a good one, for reasons there's not time or space to get into. The failure of global and domestic markets will be a disaster on multiple fronts, far from as bloodless and doable as you may think. But that is not what will happen, anyway, in that the wealthy will in fact continue to be protected; they are very good at having back-ups and fail-safes. And as far as our having a government--executive, legislative, or judicial--that will "save the workers with the bailout money," I believe that's most unlikely. Most unlikely indeed. Just as a realistic evaluation.
The US Markets are tremendously overvalued and it is commonly acknowledged by the Investment Community. The risk of the Pandemic might certainly be a Media over reaction boarding on hysteria. Yes, we should monitor young children and the elderly but so far the indications are the overwhelming majority of those who get sick will recover.
In the meantime, this over reaction is affecting some many people’s livelihoods.
1
@HPS
No, the Media is not over reacting. The man in the Oval Office is under reacting, while hoping the his VP will pray a pandemic away.
It seems possible that the Chinese have now reached a point where new infections are declining, but they have only got this far by enacting an economic lock-down which might be unparalleled in modern times. We need to be ready to do the same, and that means the economy has to take second place.
I have searched through the article for the dread word "recession", but it's not there. And yet our chances of avoid a recession are now looking slim indeed. Perhaps it's better to get the demon word into the open rather than pulling punches.
5
Too bad the Trump administration has squandered the deficit spending on tax breaks that fed stock buy backs. Infrastructure spending (medical and otherwise) is the most reasonable economic response but now it’s really going to cause government debt. Still, it should happen.
13
@Brian True. They have also held interest rates artificially low. There is not much to cut now that a cut is needed. Everything in this admin is seen through a grotesquely distorted selfish lens.
A good time for Biden to suggest policies for dealing with the challenge. Starts with honesty, assessment and reporting. He can promise honesty then suggest how to make sure point of care testing is made available soonest so patients and caregivers can be assessed and protected.
A deal could be forged between hospitals, insurers and the gov't so each contribute some amount now for the cost of testing and creating safe wards within hospitals. Such a proactive move could mitigate the costs to all and would be a well received response that the crisis is being addressed and safe refuges for care developed.
Hope this is done before caregivers stop showing up because they become sick or are unwilling to risk exposure at work. Before the one hospital bed per 350 Americans is overwhelmed by a virus infecting most and killing 7 of those 350.
Insurers & hospitals will not collect deductibles from the dead for end of life treatment. Taxes will not be collected from a shuttered economy & workers. Spending now by all to mitigate the damage is compelling.
But Republicans believe money is better spent on a wall & reducing Don Jr.'s taxes. This, & their gutting of the CDC, WHO and sabotage of the improvements to, lower deductibles and a public option for the ACA will be a costly education.
Unfortunately, it is predictable that facts will not matter to Repub legislators who have demonstrated they are more interested in spinning them for their benefit than protecting us.
5
"The notion of this outbreak being a short-lived negative shock to global demand now looks unrealistic."
I think this will be over by this Friday. Not the pandemic, just the over reaction.
There has been little reported, at least not emphasized, the majority of deaths occur to seniors, with an under lying respiratory aliments. No children are dying. No young adults, cut down in the prime of life. If there were, extreme long term measures would be justified. This might just be a first world problem, heaped on the shoulders of boomers.
The young doctor in China that died from Covid-19, may not have expired by this disease, but rather from lead poisoning.
4
@Mike You might be right about what*should* happen but take a good look around you at what is actually happening before you call a bottom to the slide. Figure out if any airlines, hotel chains or casino companies are overleveraged enough to need a government bailout if the credit markets for B, BB freeze up...
2
@Mike
As a physician specializing in respiratory infections, I originally shared some of your sentiment. After all, influenza kills up to half a million people every year and TB kills three times that many. The evolving information about COVID-19 has changed my mind. It appears to be at least as deadly as influenza but much more contagious. Reminiscent of HIV, there appears to be an asymptomatic period of transmissibility for people infected with SARS-CoV-19. Finally, there is no herd immunity and I suspect that deleterious effects of heterologous immunity to other coronaviruses might underlie the severity of COVD-19 in older people. So it is reasonable to expect a very severe pandemic this year and next winter that will disrupt global supply chains even if the majority of deaths are not in the working age population. Culling elderly might be seen as a good thing by cynical right wing wackos since it would shrink the Medicare population but sadly for them, the high proportion of severe cases requiring intensive care will push Medicare costs higher in the near term.
11
@Harvey
"Culling elderly might be seen as a good thing by cynical right wing..."
I don't see it as a good thing to cull the herd. But, with so "few", or any, young people getting this, it may affect different countries differently.
I don't know how the elderly are housed in China, but, I suspect they are are living in an extended family. If younger members of the family contract the virus and bring it home, the elderly might be the "canary in the cave".
If that is the case, US extended care facilities may be especially hard it.
I work in world trade (air cargo) and have predicted this for a good 45 days. This is how I describe our business we are the tip of the spear of the worlds economy, what we generally fly with a few exceptions are essentially luxury goods no one absolutely has to have, the newest electronic gadgets, fresh salmon, flowers you get the idea, so I created this analogy years ago. When the world economy has a cold we have the flu, when the world economy has the flu we have cancer. The good thing like the Baltic index that was mentioned we lead both the down turn and the upturn so I can of have a heads up on where we are headed.
5
The number of deaths from the coronavirus so far worldwide, according to today's news, numbers about 3000. That number is dwarfed by the number of deaths, civilian and military, that occur on a regular basis from casualties incurred in our ongoing wars throughout the world.
Strangely enough those war deaths are usually associated with stimulus of employment, earnings and profits -- as opposed to the opposite. Such contrasts are difficult to fathom.
10
@Willy The Quake
In a war there may be deaths but there us also destruction of equipment and use of weaponry and bombs, all of which must be replaced. All the latter feed businesses. To me that is a huge waste of production. I’d rather see money spent on infrastructure.
What’s going to happen, I’m guessing, is a great deal of suffering in this land, with a decrease of the tax base if many end up out of work, along with more and more crumbling of our infrastructure.
If we’re not careful with out votes we may truly end up in banana dictatorship, a land of the homeless and the unfree.
4
It’s astonishing... the world can’t tolerate even this brief moderation in demand for resources without a financial panic. Climate change is going to be a catastrophe.
24
The market has defied dire predictions quite regularly. Coronavirus arrived at a remarkably high point. Even with the tremendous drops analysts were still claiming it's high to be buying.
Optimism is baked in at this point; although pessimism is knocking loudly at the door.
4
@AACNY I'd wait until the first company bankruptcy or bailout. The airlines for example can't run half empty flights for long. At least.
5
While the sentements expressed here may be correct, it is indeed brave to predict how this will play out. The selffulfilling effect of such prophecies cannot be ignored. Optimism or pessimism make their own reality. Que sera, sera goes with the flow.
The Corona virus may have long lasting and dire effect or maybe not. The markeds will surely be volatile -a correction is certainly overdue -but we do not know longer term how it ends.
3
Stop worrying about the economy - this is another wake-up call from Mother Nature. She's telling us that if humanity doesn't get its act together and stop the relentless habitat destruction and exploitation of the environment, then disease, pollution, and climate change will end us as an evolutionary experiment. We are focused on the wrong metrics - GDPs, stock indices, and economic performance will be of little use or meaning. Though it's bad - it's not too late, but we need new leaders who put environment in front of business interests, and people in front of money. That is our only hope.
31
There is a human tragedy that I won't address in this post.
At this point, the efforts to contain the virus are creating economic difficulties -- rather than the impact of the virus itself on human health.
The virus itself seems likely to stabilize at the level of a bad flu -- uncontainable, dangerous to a small percentage of people and otherwise manageable.
It looks like containment will fail.
The mortality rate will decrease, as increasing numbers of mild and asymptomatic infections are identified. That process is already underway.
Once people stop trying to avoid infection - probably because it becomes clear that it's impossible, economic activity will resume.
The eventually availability of a vaccine will complete the recovery.
5
@RickP Are you willing to see 15% of all 80 year olds, 10% of 70 year olds, 5% of 60 year olds and 0.5% -1% of every one else die the same year, with a collapse in our hospital system as the number of beds is exceeded by a factor of 10 by serious and critical cases. People who are not will continue to try to limit the spread. This will make the annual economic hit bad but the health hit spread out.
5
@Eknath
Of course not. The containment efforts are essential. But, from the information I'm reading, e.g. what happened in Washington State, I can't see them working. My post was to point out that the prediction of economic collapse, should containment fail, seems excessive.
And, estimate mortality rates are already coming down, not to minimize the actual tragedy. Reportedly, not everybody who gets infected gets sick, which means the real rates may be lower.
1
I’m glad finally in this paper mentions the already precarious situation of the world industry before Covid 19 was known. What governments need to immediately address is the way medical services are provided. The fragmented and short term gains system of health insurance aggravates in the US the risks of prolonging the suffering. Economically small companies are at more risk because they usually don’t have the means to pay decent health insurance. The shrinking life span of Americans during the last 10:years should give pause when talking about recovery and prospects for the future.
14
The stock market, overstuffed via quantitative easing and then low rates left for years, then further propelled by a tremendously careless growth of Trump's deficit spending was overripe and asking for a correction just when the novel coronavirus stepped in.
A fall was imminent, as all that goes high must come down low, and lower it will go with coronavirus and incompetent political leaders at the helm.
23
The pandemic is a game changer that will undoubtedly alter many aspects of modern society and the global world order. Let’s just hope global leaders do not squander the opportunity to build governing mechanisms that are more cooperative, compassionate and equitable.
19
From a TA (Technical Analysis) point of market view, all of this makes perfectly sense. Throw out the bad, keep the good businesses and move up to new stock records.
2
Despite the devastation of this disease, I find the economic effects quite fascinating. If you look at history and relationships of economies, its hard to find a similar example. Our economies are so interdependent since globalization and it shows how fragile the economy can become based on release of information, an abstraction, which in reality is not a fact but rather a prediction of whats to come which is not set in stone. This is the market. What is true is that thousands of firms have no workers in China and production is curbed. Schools are closed as well. When people stop moving, so does the economy. Circulation is key, in health as in economics.:)
3
A close relative who is retired said she and her husband have put their summer vacation in Europe on hold this year because of the virus. Imagine how many people are rethinking travel plans this year and how the travel/hospitality industry will be affected. I've noticed parts for a new computer I'm building have shot up in cost over the last two weeks (most made in Asia). I have to travel to a nearby city for a doctor's appointment tomorrow and have dropped most plans for shopping where there may be crowds. Thank gawd for online shopping and UPS/FedEx (for the moment, anyway).
13
@J.R.B.
Camping is one way to take a vacation and be in nature (away from germs) instead of with crowds of people. But of course that does not help the travel industry.
Nevertheless I’m glad when my son bought his new large truck for work, he is having it rehabbed so he can use it either for camping or with shelves to hold cargo he needs for work. If he comes to visit me, I hope he drives instead of risking air travel. At least for the next few months. And maybe longer.
The stock market was way overvalued in the Trump era anyway. Even with the recent drop its still a good 20-30% above where it should be.
24
@R
US stock market predicated on higher earnings in most sectors now grinding to an almighty halt. Hedge funds in control. The future will not be normal. More people living on the edge. Climate change and social divisions need to be addressed by politicians more interested spending loads of money getting elected like Michael Bloomberg. Vanity fair?
10
@R
Thank goodness it's been so high.
1
As we faced The Great Recession beginning in 2008-09 we had a bit of luck.
A Democratic president came into office on January 20, 2009.
Like every nation on earth he saw the mission ahead. Spend big sums of government funds to jack the economy and send a signal to the markets: we are going to put the weight of the US government behind the recovery effort. We're in this together.
Other countries did the same.
I recall reading at the time that China's government had an economic stimulus package (government spending) totaling about 30% of their GDP! That's amazing.
We devoted @$900 billion to our spending stimulus. About 5% of our GDP.
The unfortunate partisan madness at the time had Republicans opposing this economic tonic that all nations administered.
To help a new president of the other party, the very popular Barack Obama, had no upside they figured. ("We help him… economy recovers… he gets the credit!)
So, they tried sabatoge instead.
This Democrat says, let's help move our government toward an effective response to this crisis.
No time for partisan politics.
I hope Republicans realize what Obama knew… that a big 'ol government is what it takes to respond to a big 'ol crisis.
65
@Paul King
I was thinking back to that era, too. How Republic policies made a huge mess and a Democrat was forced to come in and clean up, then get blamed for the hard times. Such an extra burden to shoulder !
In 2021 our new Democratic president will have to slog through economic recovery, which will dilute her/his ability to lead us to genuine and sustained reform of the Executive Branch.
And, of course, endless blaming by the ousted party.
Not to mention
25
@robin It may take several 2-term Democratic presidents to begin to undo the mess that Trump, his administration, and the GOP have made of the country and with our allies.
49
@Paul King The money we spent on Main Street was peanuts, we, Obama included chose to bail out Wall Street instead. We had a once in a lifetime chance to spend huge on infrastructure and education , we chose instead to continue the trillion dollar a year war for Israel in the Middle East and bail out bankers who still have their billions. This while " small savers got nothing for a decade and counting.
9
A conventional analysis from a conventional economist. Useful, but limited.
The planet is warming. The economic costs have been largely externalized to date. However, floods and wildfires cause damage that ultimately has to be repaired and accounted for, just to give an example.
A slowdown in consumption is actually beneficial. Partly because it slows the injection of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, but also because it forces people to reassess how much of their consumption is genuinely worthwhile. If you enjoy nice meals in good restaurants, for example, shouldn’t the prices be enough to pay living wages and (more relevantly here) a health care plan and time off for kitchen workers that are sick?
The United States has reached its current sad state in part because its leaders have been able to focus on the wrong metrics. The country that once built dishwashers to last now imports junk dishwashers that feed the retail sector and the landfill sector.
Conventional economists have been largely complicit in this deception, which is why we cannot look to them for guidance, save as one point of view among many.
52
@Global Charm
THIS is the New York Times op ed article we should be reading!
@NYtimes Take Heed!
1
Many have health insurance and still will not set foot in an ER, hospital, urgent care or medical office if sick. If offered free drive-through testing, then yes, they would absolutely do that... But most people aren’t going to risk surprise billing, insurance denials, and $3500 tests.
54
@Misplaced Modifier
...on top of a $2-3000 deductable...
2
Everyone sells uncertainty and buys safety or the sure thing. Right now the situation is too fluid for anyone to have confidence in any near term predictions. Markets probably haven't found a bottom yet because it's unclear how to account for the worst case scenario as the outbreak unfolds, jumps from country to country, state to state. We need more sustained and reliable data, which takes time. Until the fog clears some there will be a lot of market volatility.
9
We need an FDR.
Yes This is about survival first.
The government should spend money on hospitals, federal hospitals.
It will stimulate the economy and help us to survive.
45
It’s only been 2 months and economists are writing off the rest of the year? That’s a lot of confidence given the global economic system is notoriously difficult to predict and no one has any idea yet what the impact of the virus will be. I think, based on prior viral epidemics, it will be short lived and have a relatively small impact on the population. The panicking may cause disruptions, but our collective attention span is short. I will be surprised if such opinion pieces are being written in June.
11
What might help - is a little leadership. Right now, people are worried for their health = and the financial burden of becoming sick. The test alone (in america) is a huge outlay. So - I propose an announcement of : medicare-for-all-for-Coronavirus. Let the House propose it - and see if the Senate or Trump would dare to reject it.
60
@Gerard
While politicizing illness is a bit distasteful, USING politics to save lives is brilliant.
@Gerard
It won't happen until a congressman gets sick. The wealthy think that their walls, moats and money will protect them, and that those without means have no one but themselves to blame for their plight.
It's time to reevaluate unrestrained capitalism. After all, it's this unrestrained nature that helped the virus spread worldwide, and is also, in a great part, responsible for our global warming crisis.
Both issues can be addressed at once.
For example, employees are now telecommuting to work, which limits virus exposure AND cuts down on CO2 release.
Non-essential air travel is being curtailed, which, again limits CO2 release. The world now has adequate tools for video conferencing.
NOx over China has been reduced. Their factories are no longer polluting our only atmosphere. Further, do we really need more plastic toys from China?
Instead of just looking at GDP, why don't we start placing quality of life indexes before capitalistic ones?
For example, telecommuters have more time with their families or listening to music, or just plain hanging out. Instead of wasting two days flying out and back the time would be returned for either leisure or productivity increases.
27
@Cal Page Maybe this virus is nature's way of gently encouraging us to reevaluate how much emphasis we place on economic growth as a metric of societal well-being.
36
@Cal Page which is great if you're employment and ability to consume is tied to high tech....not so much if you're in retail and direct service, true? And while folks are cocooning, what about the $ not flowing through the economy?
3
The rich and powerful who control capitalist governments have no interest in improving the quality of life of those who labor for them.
It’s up to the working class to organize to force the change that is needed.
14
12:15 AM in NJ
Shanghai SE Composite Index up 2.94%
Nikkei 225 up 0.75%
Hang Seng up 0.92%
dow futures up 0.39%
It seems there is a disconnect with coronavirus world economy concerns and the stock market.
I only wish Trump understood the world economy is not based on the stock market.
14
@GP
Trump understands the world economy enough to toughen our trade stances and try to put an end to the theft of our intellectual property. That's a far greater understanding than the last few presidents.
1
@GP
Dead cat bounce? Can cats get covid-19?
1
@GP wait for the end of the day.
1
I notice that Putin is suddenly agreeing to meet with OPEC. You can be sure that the governments around the world who have an invested interest in keeping Trump in power will pull out all the stops to drag the stock market from the brink. They may not succeed but it won't be for lack of trying.
19
Once upon a time we had a thriving pharmaceutical industry in the United States and Puerto Rico.
And in the interest of shareholder value, not national interest, it was thrown all away.
Perhaps the next president with congress's help will see the strategic long term benefit of reestablishing that industry for reasons of national security..
42
@Lawrence
We live in a world where economic performance trumps idealism. My IRA and millions of 401(k)s depend on equity value. If you want companies to behave in a way that benefits the national interest rather than the public's financial interest, than you need to redesign our economy so that retirement portfolios are not tied to corporate greed.
32
@Lawrence
Any number of nation sales of Industry have been blocked on the grounds of national security.
Sales that would have benefited shareholders.
Your libertarian argument promotes the idea that for the shareholder good every last dime be squeezed out and given to shareholders, and the nation cannot be maintained.
5
All investments in securities are based on greed.
Dividends are the unearned income paid out of profits siphoned off the top of the value produced by labor.
Stock trading is the buying snd selling of ownership in businesses and has no productive value to society.
4
It could create a "natural laboratory" for a short-term testing of Yang's proposal. The test, if successful, could then be expanded for longer term stabilization and recovery from the recession. If not successful, that's what testing is for.
Here's a fairly simple way to test this on 2% of the population:
Select 8 states (or equivalent) with population under 1 million, half represented in the House by a democrat (ver, del, pr, dc )other half by a republican (mt,nd,sd,wy). Given the huge tuna crisis in American Somoa, and since this is my daydream, I want them in, too.
Agree and announce as quickly as possible. The actual monthly checks can start later, because at least some behaviors will change just knowing there is economic relief on the way.
I am not familiar with every detail of Yang's proposal but I recall and assume that there is a lower age limit, so the experiment ought to cost maybe $30-50 million a month.
Congress is getting ready to authorize funds to combat CoVid19. Maybe 9 philanthropic persons or funding agencies could step forward to offer to match congressional funding, each philanthropist "minding" one state. Then you'd have public-private partnership - always a win-win.
So, I enjoyed daydreaming about it. Hope you enjoyed reading it. OH, and keep washing your hands and learn to politely explain why you have given up hand-shaking for the time being!
5
@robin
Yes I’ve come up against some resistance re my resistance to handshaking.
And thank you for dreaming, that’s where solutions come from.
2
The biggest fix for the global economy to recover after a pandemic is for the major governments to kick start them. Unfortunately, China and the US have been artificially propping up their economies for years and will be hard pressed to invest as heavily as needed to get things moving again.
In the US, there was uproar on one side of the aisle and a general distaste on the other side when Pres. Obama pushed for a stimulus package that would push the deficit over $1T. What will it be like to get a stimulus package through that would push the deficit from the current $1t to close to $2T?
The opportunity to prepare for the future was squandered, twice -- once by not investing enough when it was needed and second by frivolously giving away cash though tax cuts that helped the investor clash increase their stockpile, at least on paper, while not investing in real improvements like infrastructure (which would still be pumping money into the economy now and beyond the end of a pandemic if it occurs.
23
In my opinion it's too early to be this doom and gloom about the economy. It'll come down to how the virus spreads as it warms up in the spring. I do see a slow down, and we were likely due for a correction. If this keeps going into the summer months, the year will likely be lost. That said, it's hard to gauge the long-term impact right now.
The fact is the virus is deadlier than the flu and so forth, but at 2% mortality rate tells me the world can still go on. The thing that no one has figured out is what the R0 is. It seems very contagious in close quarters, but the outbreaks so far have been in colder areas. Even in Hong Kong and Singapore with a notable amount of cases hasn't exploded like northern Italy in the mountains, or South Korea in the heart of winter. These are my observations, and I don't have a medical background. It's interesting seeing where the outbreaks have been over isolated cases.
2
@Patrick
Well, since the earth is round and there is more than just the northern hemisphere, when we get warmer half the planet will get colder and the virus will spread there.
Don’t get your hopes up that the weather will stop the spread. It’s just going to become common like the normal flu, which has killed over 14,000 in the US this year alone.
11
The “normal” of the flu is about one-tenth of one percent mortality.
The “normal” of the coronavirus is twenty times that, about two percent.
They’re a long way from being equivalent.
2
There is no reason that a threat of a pandemic should have this type of effect on the global economy. Blame the Trump administration and the Chinese government. Trump has dismantled science programs throughout our government including the pandemic response program at the CDC. This coronavirus is like the H1N1 flu of a few years ago-- causing more deaths than a typical influenza virus infection-- but there was no global economic collapse. By attempting to quarantine large regions of their country and purposefully underestimating the number of people infected with this virus (thereby, falsely inflating the death rate), the Chinese has scared the world and the markets. As we are learning in the US now, many people have been infected but are not severely ill enough to seek medical attention and the number infected in China is likely in the hundreds of thousands not 81,000. There is little benefit in quarantining millions of people and fighting the spread of infection with preventive measures like aggressive hand washing and sanitizing public and private places is likely to be fair more effective. Mike Pence is not qualified to lead our response to this threat with his high school science classes from the 1970s and undergraduate degree in History. Trump could have appointed a doctor-- like Dr. Anthony Fauci of theNIH --to lead this response and would likely have given the world and the markets the confidence that the US would deal with this threat effectively.
34
the grocery stores were very crowded this weekend.maybe people were shopping because they fear that the stores are going to shut down a day or two from now owing to the virus. supply chains in china have been disrupted by quarantines and factories being temporarily closed to contain the epidemic. the production of iphones, pharmaceuticals and many other products that are dependant on the global supply chain-mainly the supply chain in china, have been adversely impacted. china's economy has contracted in february, which could impact the US economy. coronavirus is spreading to many countries and is present but undetected in others. italy, korea and america are trying to contain it, through travel restrictions and quarantines. companies will report lower profits in march and maybe in may. identifying a vaccine could take a year. even if a vaccine is identified, testing it could take six months. the virus could seriously impact 20 percent of those infected which is high.the US economy could slide into a recession in 2021 if not 2020. earnings growth for many companies is likely to be be zero in the 1st quarter of 2020. it could take several quarters to recover. the recovery could be slow. recovery from the dot com collapse took 5 years. recovery from the great recession of 2008 also was slow and only began in 2011 and gained momentum briefly in 2019. the latest recovery happened because of obama and janet yellen's policies. trump and gop policies have been fiscally reckless.
19
Professor Prasad notes, "Governments cannot eliminate uncertainty, but they can ensure the transparent and accurate flow of information." Governments ("Nation states" or "Soverigns" can also work cooperatively to address threats to those they serve. I read in these pages that three trillion dollars in wealth/stock value had been wiped out by Coronavirus. Virial pandemics are not unseen phenomenon. Suppose our governements had allocated three trillon dolars some years ago, to prevent the present, not unexpected, scenario?
This same questin must be applied to climate change. Should we - governments across the globe - allocate monies now or await a similiar catastrophic reckoning?
There are such vast arenas in which governments could begin to work together for the well-being of thier peoples, yet they continue to find antagonisms on which to structure relationships.
I suppose this anthropology of power is sucessful, why else would it continue to prevail?
I, myself, have my doubts.
4
The coronavirus is not containable and that is why sharemarkets around the world keep sliding. Trump says he has it under control and that is not facing up to the reality of this virus. It's different from the flu as it is so contagious and can grind economies to a halt. I can't believe Trump just keeps saying it is under control when I keep reading headlines around the world that say that the coronavirus may have spread undetected for weeks. NZ had another nose dive day on the stock market NZX (New Zealand Exchange)
26
I cannot help but believe that the jitters in our own financial markets stem in part from Trump’s obvious lies about what’s happening with the coronavirus here in the States and from his putting Mike Pence in charge of our country’s response instead of an experienced expert like Anthony Fauci. Many in the investor class may support Trump because his deregulatory moves and top-of-the-house tax cuts are making them richer, but they know better than to trust his management of something that absolutely requires both public transparency and belief in scientific fact.
70
@Steel Magnolia Yes! Exactly what I've been saying.
@Steel Magnolia incompetence runs deep in the trump admin.
@Steel Magnolia No, it stems from the fact that we rely, and have for 30 years, too much on China and other Asian countries. By doing so, hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty. Poverty is at it's lowest ever, including the US.
I find it odd that the Dem party has been for globalism and trying to drive globalism for at least 20 years, and now it's Trump's fault.
Interest rate cuts are unlikely to boost the economy, though they may help borrowers refinance and pay off debts; but savers, as usual, will pay the price with lowered or no returns. What they won’t do, unlike other scenarios, is get those savers back to the stock market, which is likely Trump’s hope, no matter the interest rate, as long as there is fear of a continued recession.
19
Professor Prasad apparently knows some things nobody else knows: how many people will be infected by the virus epidemic, how long it will last, and how effective governments will be. Since he knows these things, he can confidently write off global economic growth this year. Since none of the rest of us know them, it just might be a little early to panic.
6
@Forrest Chisman
If you'll look at the top of the page you'll see a certain word - 'opinion." Ponder on the meaning of that.
Trump’s disinformation campaign about this plague mirrors the early reaction of the Chinese government. There are many things that could also “disrupt the supply chain”. For example the overthrow of authoritarian Communist Chinese government as workers in China realize that they will never get parity with free market societies until they create one for themselves. Hopefully. This catastrophe will clarify for many that the global economy is built on sand.
10
How many more plastic toys do we need? or iPhones for that matter - on the other hand, the production of anti-biotics and other drugs has been off shored to China. The global business model is showing its weaknesses. Unfortunately about 60% of our economy is based on consuming (or buying) "stuff". I don't really need to buy much "stuff" to survive, but we do need medicines and other basic goods that we do not have the capacity to produce ourselves due to greed by large corporations.
46
How many more cruises do we need? How many more corporate conferences do we need? How many more Olympics or March Madness events do we need? How many more department and grocery stores do we need? How many more airplane trips do we need? How many more theme parks do we need? How many more libraries, operas, symphonies, ballets or plays do we need? How many more large universities do we need? When the response to a pandemic is poorly managed and people bury their heads in the sand about it's importance and effects, they don't see the big picture.
8
@dairyfarmersdaughter , when people stop buying, workers lose their jobs. It's called a contraction, and it is the stuff depressions are made of. Unfortunately for all.
2
Trump's tax cut to corporations and the wealthiest was accompanied by a promise of three percent or better growth long into the foreseeable future. So much for that rosy scenario. Anyway, as usual, the wealthiest and corporations got theirs while the getting was still good.
32
We are xenobiotica, in this particular ecological niche, an amalgam of bacteria brought together by viruses, so why be afraid of them? They’ll take us to the next level of evolution. The Singularity is not borne on computers, it’s propelled by the virus.
4
@Robert M. Koretsky , well, um, you go on ahead and send back word. We’ll be along after a while.
1
@Robert M. Koretsky
People are dying of this virus, and other viruses for that matter. That’s a pretty good reason to be afraid of them. Those folks won’t get to see any “next level of evolution.”
1
Every detail in Mr. Prasad's grim assessment was entirely predictable, and it could very well get much worse. At this point, it seems likely the virus is already spread across the US, not to mention the globe, and it simply hasn't been confirmed, perhaps because of the sort of leadership that guts the CDC and other health agencies and says "we'll hire the experts when we need them," as though fighting a pandemic is like fighting a fire (it's not, and besides, you keep firefighters on hand even when there's no fire).
Those who follow anti-science "conservatives" dragging us all down with them.
47
Trump liked to boast that 'his' economy was booming. He wasn't responsible for the health of the economy, and it wasn't really booming. He gave it a temporary artificial boost with huge tax breaks to Billionaires and encouraging the Fed to cut interest rates. This artificially inflated the stock market, put the USA in over 1 Trillion in debt, and made us much more vulnerable to a downturn in the economy.
Trump isn't responsible for the corona virus, but he is responsible for huge cuts to the CDC and the NIH and he is also responsible for mis-information about the spread of the disease. Lack of confidence in Trump's ability to handle a pandemic most certainly factored into the recent stock market sell off.
I don't want people to suffer from either a pandemic or a stock market crash. It appears that both are just starting to show what they are capable of. We need a president who will provide us with accurate information and advice.This would help us minimize both health and economic impacts of these recent developments. Trump's mis-information and conspiracy theories will not help in a time of crisis.
129
"Our economy is strong. It's a ten year bargain before you can see good dividends and Capital Gains. It takes time to pay off your home mortgage. It also takes time to build your portfolio."
3
@Tim,
I don’t know if you are using that quote ironically.
I already built my retirement portfolio, and now I see its value being stripped away in mere days.
I’m 76 years old and may not have another ten years to wait for it to regain its value.
2
We're going to see both supply shock and demand shock effectively kill Q1 and Q2 of 2020. But if the Remdesivir trials are a success -- and they likely will be -- then COVID-19 will have a risk of mortality close to seasonal flu. Upon this news and availability of the drug, we will quickly return to something like normal.
But will we have learned anything?
1
This drug has to be administered intravenously over a prolonged period. It’s not like aspirin.
18
@Melanie it's not the lethality that kills the economy: it's the number of current and potential infections and the reverberations of lost productivity and income and unanticipated costs for diagnoses and treatment that are a threat to the economy....
3
"Even if the news is bad, consumers, businesses and investors need to know that they have a reliable picture of the facts."
But in the face of that need, consumers, businesses, and investors can only expect from the U.S. Federal Administration little more than attempted self-serving partisan propaganda. We are poised to refresh the historical teaching that nearly all natural crises can be made arbitrarily worse by incompetence and the actions of corrupt politicians.
31
@CatHerderJ - when it comes down to it, I think even Trump's supporters know he is a bald-faced liar who can't be trusted. They're happy to cheer him on when he's "triggering the libs" but in a crisis nobody wants to feel like their life has been placed in his hands.
This is a man-made virus compounded by official incompetence.
We are living in country in which the Trump administration is doing its best to take health coverage away from as many people as possible, while simultaneously destroying the very agencies tasked with responding to exactly this sort of pandemic.
Real crises are very difficult to deal even when you have talented, dedicated leaders, and we have the exact opposite. This is the moment we’re going to find out just how bad the incompetence and dishonesty of our President is going to be for all Americans facing a real crisis. My suspicion is it’s going to be awfully bad.
141
Speaking as a younger person, I've concluded that the stock market is largely an over-inflated fraud that revolves just as much around meaningless speculation as any cryptocurrency.
Tesla tripling its market cap in two weeks? Sure.
Look at the Dow Jones or practically any stock that's been around for 40 years. They start off with a slow linear rise, but eventually the price chart resembles an exponential curve to infinity. Raytheon and JPM (Chase) are good examples. It's all nonsense fueled by "trickle-up" economics and corporate share buy-backs.
Extrapolating from 1980 to 1995, the Dow right now should be around 10,000. It all needs to collapse.
48
Generally, a stock market's performance is determined by a collective estimate of the value of the corporations it includes.The value of Tesla may certainly triple in two weeks, depending on its perceived value, just as the price of anything goes up or down, sometimes dramatically, regardless of the underlying asset. For any number of reasons, investors who thought Tesla was riskier two weeks ago could reasonably conclude that its future is brighter today. Maybe it overcame some manufacturing difficulties, or perhaps a competitor is suddenly having manufacturing or sales problems. Or maybe a research report showed that a lot of people want Teslas regardless of the challenges it faces. Usually many things are going on, and many things factor in, but ultimately people decide, individually and for their own reasons, whether they want to hold an asset or not, just like you do when you buy or sell something yourself. And that determines the price of that asset at that time. You're young, so you have plenty of time to study economics.
1
@Joe,
The price of stocks is based on what people are willing to pay and is influenced by demand.
They have no intrinsic value.
5
@Joe
You're not purposely factoring in the Feds single purpose mission of continuing to "bail out" Wall Street to the tune of several trillions dollars with thier non-stop Quantitative Easing these past few years to fuel this hugely overvalued and over leveraged stock market.
I'm not young and I do clearly remember what started this "longest Bull Market" in recent financial history: which was and still is: trillions upon trillions of artificially injected Federal Reserve "funny money" that has kept all these grossly inflated accents afloat.
Whether it's the possible/probable global Corona Virus pandemic, or the eventual reality that the ever expansion and worship of "consumerism" as the only inevitable model of human well-being and progress is directly in conflict with our rapidly deteriorating planetary environment, the day of our eventual reckoning is fast approaching.
Much of the economic activity that is not happening right now will simply get pushed out to the next quarter or the one after that, rather than foregone -- for example, iPhone or home purchase. Therefore, if coronavirus is reasonably contained in a month or two, we would see an economic bounce. Cutting interest rates will not matter much in the absence of demand.
7
@RSSF the bills will also get paid later with interest that the rentier class isn't pricing in so far....
2
@RSSF Oh, come on most the stocks on Wall Street way overvalued. 10, 20, or more in regards to profit. How does Boeing lose $18 billion, sell four planes and then the shares go up. I know it is like listening to the other brain Kudlow now is a great time to buy stocks. Oh, really the oil, gas, coal are never coming back. Boeing the MAX here is a prediction will never fly, but hey they will write it off and the taxpayer will pay for it. Oh, Trump will shout to cut the interest rate, here is the problem that has been done over and over again to force and make the market fly. It should have never kept going down and down see the problem Americans are spent out $14 trillion in debt, $930 billion credit cards, 250 billion in farm debt, the crash is here. See the problem is waging have not gone up most of the jobs are service industry jobs and that is what America is becoming. No investment in green or new technology like the fake end to the war in Afghanistan the American Empire like the old British Empire are gone just takes awhile for the corpse to start to smell. Jim Trautman
1
The economy is in some trouble, firstly not from the virus outbreak but from an amateur in the White House trying to make it work for him, and secondly it is way too early to tell the impact of all this.
Remember how all the fears about how HIV/AIDS would be so ruinous to populations? Turns out the science behind it was tougher to figure out than we thought, but things kept on perking along.
Despite Prof. Prasad's impressive credentials as listed, I think he and I both have about the same chance of being right in the long run no matter what our guesses,and his fanning the flames of doom do nothing to help the recovery.
11
@reid
HIV is in no way comparable. It's transmitted by contact with bodily fluids, usually as a result of sex. The coronavirus is transmitted largely by coughing and initially appears to be a cold or regular flu. "Fanning the flames of doom" is better than ignoring it and its effects until it's too late.
23
@reid,
Warnings alert people to the seriousness of adverse events and spur them to action to combat them.
Downplaying leads to complacency and inaction.
Cf. Trumpism.
2
@reid
There is a great difference in how HIV and the corona virus is spread. All you have to do to get the coronavirus is to going shopping in your local supermarket or sit next to somebody in the subway.
As long as humanity exists, it will be subject to pandemics. The question is, how do we best mitigate their worst effects. I would suggest a couple (out of many, I'm sure) possible ways.
First, (and, I would have thought, elementary) a public health preparedness infrastructure - the very area that this administration has neglected for budgetary and ideological reasons. trump seems to think that the CDC and NIH can be staffed "on demand", as part of the gig economy.
Secondly, prudent and conservative (not to be confused with "Conservative") economic and trade policies. It makes zero sense for any advanced nation to outsource all its pharmaceutical needs, and even less sense to outsource almost all of them to a single nation. (This goes for other vital supplies like electronics, too).
The current fashion of letting the market take care of everything has failed; a mixture of regulation, sensible taxation and company law will be necessary to adjust corporate attitudes (corporate charters were once conditional on serving the public interest).
22:25 EST, 3/01
105
@mancuroc
I agree with your comment. I have recently completed a review of "Three Seconds Until MIdnight". recently published by Robert Coullahan, a great writer,
https://www.amazon.com/Robert-J.-Coullahan/e/B082XLRPKD/ref=ntt_dp_epwbk_1
The book traces U.S. pandemic policy history starting with the March 1918 outbreak of the dangerous and killing strain of the Influenza virus. Bob joined with Dr. Steven Hatfield, a scientist physician and Dr. John Walsh of Vanderbilt University to bring their life work and experience to bear on this still unresolved national planning issue and share their ideas on how to improve our response to a future 1918-type pandemic event.
This excellent book agrees with your points and with 60 plus years of Federal service, I totally agree with your final paragraph.
@mancuroc And you blame Trump for outsourcing? He's been trying to stop the bleeding; outsourcing spiked under Obama, Bush, and Clinton. And we do not need illegal immigration, virus or no virus.
@Ma
"And you blame Trump for outsourcing?"
Show me where I said that. Actually, he has talked a good tune. Too bad he's all words and no action, and his tax policies are directly opposed to the goals he claims - they reward corporations for business as usual. Watch what he does, not what he says.
13:30 EST, 3/02
The evolution of the world economy into a 'flat' planet came with consequences that are only now becoming apparent.
1) The ever increasing reliance on supply chains that stretch around the planet means more and more possible points of failure and vulnerability to disruption.
2) The consolidation of manufacturing and corporate consolidation in general into larger and larger entities means less flexibility to respond to disruption, and greater consequences when they are disrupted.
3) The unending quest for productivity, the spread of just-in-time supply mechanisms means there's no cushion when disruption occurs. Shortages start rippling through the supply chain almost immediately.
The Coronavirus has demonstrated that the world's economy has become increasing vulnerable to disruption as it has become more globalized.
Disruption is going to increase. This is what we can expect as the Climate Crisis unfolds. Disease outbreaks are going to become more common, through disruption of the environment, disruption of agriculture, and increasing numbers of climate refugees. Extreme weather events too, as we are already seeing. Sea level rise, fires like Australia, political instability - the list is getting longer.
Resilience is the key word - investing in making systems more robust, increasing economic diversity, and preparing for what we know is coming. Smaller, more diverse, more redundancy - and sustainable, restoring lost manufacturing skills - that's what we'll need.
81
@Larry,
In re your number 3, production is geared to demand.
Producing a surplus of anything is not economically sound.
Unsold products produce no income, reducing revenue available to pay wages and leading to job layoffs.
Thus is capitalism.
1
Hmmm. Maybe right, but only time will tell.
.
China's leaders wrecked their economy with six weeks of pretending all was well, and since their economy is so big, the globe, statistically, will be sure to feel it.
.
Whether doom is nigh for the rest of us, as the media in the US now seem to want to sell, remains to be seen. Our openness, not just the US but most places outside China, means we haven't, and won't, let sick people roam around unnoticed. That's a big plus.
.
The countries that have moved so much of their production to China over the past 30 years may as well bite the bullet at this point and finish getting out. Not because of the coronavirus, because of the CCP, something much worse for humanity in the long run.
.
It's abundantly clear that they're not at all bashful about holding the rest of us economic hostage because we drool after their market and have let them take over so much of our manufacturing. It's time to escape that.
.
With any luck, the good people of China will find themselves free of that oppression one of these days too, and we can get back to welcoming who we hoped, as we opened up, we were welcoming into the free world. They deserve a lot better than the CCP.
19
Amen
Cue the Sturm and Drang. "The hopeful narrative about 2020 heralding a modest rebound in global growth now lies in ruins."
This author has no more idea than i do about how deep or shallow the economic consequences will be yet he is happy to presume the worst without waiting for additional data.
Indeed , my recon has it that Chinese manufacturing is ramping up again. But lets not say that, It wouldn't fit the narrative.
11
@Mike
There was a famous economist about whom it was said that he called 6 or the last 2 recessions. On the other hand, presuming the worst is really the only way to prepare for the unknown.
10
Point taken, but preparation and precaution versus crying like Chicken Little in a major forum as a with the weight of be a “professional” in the matter are two different things.
Frankly , the Times should be more cautious about publicizing what could be not very well informed opinion like this , since there is a risk of talking ourselves into a problem that may not exist.
One way to directly improve the economic outlook: invest in testing for the virus.
The most urgent measure now is to declare and enforce that testing for this virus is free of charge for the patients who request it. Otherwise, the great majority of cases will stay undetected. How early this is implemented will make or brake efforts to contain the spread of the virus. Unfortunately, this will not be easy, as it reveals the Achille's heel of the current health economic system in the US.
29
We are experiencing a pandemic. Is this one different? Some are carriers, seemingly not affected. Others die. Should we not ask why? Might we find ourselves asking about immunity... or, more properly, the destruction of immunity? If all of us were very healthy, might we be indifferent to this virus? I believe we have damaged immunity in many humans. Viruses come and go. Some die. Most do not. What might we be doing to our gut biome, the epicenter of our immune system? If all knew why, if all were certain of the cause, would we act? This is the question. "The Coronavirus Has Put the World’s Economy in Survival Mode -There’s little hope for a global economic rebound in 2020." As it happens, only one DVM school knows what to do about beef cattle in an illness that's deadly: anaplasmosis, now spreading among humans in Maine. Each illness is different. Anaplasmosis treatment fattens beef. That process destroys our planetary microbiome - in my view. It's pretty obvious. Call if you would like to know more.
4
@S B Lewis : I reject your premise that "some are carriers and seemingly unaffected". What we're witnessing is the incubation period before symptoms present themselves.
1
"Even if the news is bad, consumers, businesses and investors need to know that they have a reliable picture of the facts."
Every behavior exhibited by the president and his administration is antithetical to that quote. And when they do act, it lacks maximum expertise and coordination, likely putting the country in even greater danger. Dr. Fauci should be the face of this government's response as he has been through many other viral epidemics, especially HIV. Instead, he has been muzzled because he speaks the truth.
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I wrote it here a few days ago. We are going with thoughts and prayers. No science, no biology, no plan. Yes, that is a winning strategy.
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The fallacy of Donald Trump's vacuous campaign slogan, "America First" is on full display given the global nature of supply chain reliance on China. Trump's focus on the USA-Mexico border as the highlight of keeping America safe belies the neglect that his administration has given to the entire homeland security of our country. Back in September, journalists were already sounding the alarm about American pharmaceutical companies reliance on China, a totalitarian country which censures & squashes facts on a regular basis, for our citizens desperately needed drugs. A retired Brig. Gen., John Adams, is quotes as stating that "basically we've outsourced our entire industry to China," which has led to "a strategic vulnerability." Already there are warnings of possible shortages of popular drugs ranging from antibiotics to heparin, anthrax [vaccine], penicillin, high blood pressure drugs and NSAIDs. The NYT published an article 2 days ago stating that the FDA is admitting there will be drug shortages although refuses to make public which drugs & to what extent the public will be effected. This governmental secrecy only creates uncertainty, fear, panic & this type of public anxiety only further destabilizes the economy. Meanwhile while Trump continuously pats himself on the back for blocking flights, South Korea has drive through testing available for anyone who would feel reassured by being tested. Meanwhile the US is fumbling with providing necessary tests to the skeptical public.
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@Dunca
This pandemic is showing the wisdom of America First. It shows just how right Trumps tariffs have been. Industry had already started decoupling from China to some degree because of them and this shows how good that is.
Trump’s policies have started to undo the mistake of the last 30 years.
1
@KBronson - Obama focused on collective alliances to pressure China to change its negative trade policies under the proposed TPP with our trading partners. Trump, in stark contrast, focuses on America First, which is a big turn off to our trading partners & allies and unlike Trump's big boasting & lies, has done little to coerce China to change. The tariffs are taxes on the consumer and/or the businesses that import from China or rely on them for supplies or parts. Trump has applied draconian tariffs wily nily with no rhyme or reason (i.e. European cheese, wine, whisky, etc.) which only slows down the global economy & sets up obstacles to growth. The TPP would have allowed the USA to establish closer trading ties with other countries but instead Trump squandered the opportunity & has egotistically fooled the American public to believe that he, the cult leader, is personally making great reciprocal trade deals which, as the Phase 1 of China trade agreement shows, is the farthest from the truth. Still waiting for China to cough up the billions promised to our struggling farmers who've lost a fortune & gone bankrupt while Trump plays the cult leader sans economic King Midas.
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@KBronson
You'll need to provide some facts, and where you got them, to convince anyone that US industry is "de coupling" from China.
The newspapers, radio and TV say that while jobs were expanding, they were mostly in low pay positions, and manufacturing jobs were still shrinking. That would seem to indicate that no jobs are being brought back.
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Last week with be remembered as the worst one week stock market crash since 2008 due to panic selling resulting from fear mongering by those ignorant of what could realistic happen with regard to the Coronavirus (CoV) spread and fatalities outside of China.
That there is little hope for a global economic rebound is a hopeless, unreliable prediction. Parts of the economy such as the tourism industry and industries dependent on China for their supply chain will take some months to rebound but other parts will pick up the slack. Pharmaceutical and health care industry just got a stimulus from the additional govt spending earmarked to find cures, vaccine and protective barriers. China is rising back again with diminished numbers of new cases.
There is promising news that should increase confidence in the markets and buyers who took profits by selling early at the beginning of the week well before the end of the week can get bargain stock prices in sectors likely to do well in the coming months.
3 key events have happened over the weekend that I am confident will ensure a rebound.
1) America's longest seemingly endless war in Afghanistan seems to be on the path to ending with minimal presence of US forces remaining behind and bulk of the troops returning home safely.
2) Nomination of a socialist Dem by the Dems seems to be faltering and a fear that Bernie could be the nominee for sure is NO longer a SURE THING.
3) Panic and fear mongering about CoV is rendered unjustified.
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@Girish Kotwal - First of all, I don't have any idea where you came up with the notion that Bernie is out simply because Biden finally had a good showing at one of 4 primaries. Let's wait till Tuesday to see where chips start falling.
Secondly, over the weekend there have been 2 coronavirus deaths here in Seattle. Twenty-five firefighters have been quarantined due to responding to the nursing home where it has spread. Several more patients are in the hospital just from that place alone. A USPS worker tested positive. Schools have been shutting down especially since one teenager thought he only had a case of flu and had gotten better but it turns out that was not the case. Wait till this hits a couple of Amazon warehouses and the packages quit flowing overnight for a couple of weeks. Or the president quarantines the entire city and there is no one to unload all of those Chinese container ships that flow into the Puget Sound day after day. Wait till this hits the 10,000 homeless in this city.
I personally don't think it will get that bad but I am sweating bullets that I have a new doctor's appointment in a week at a major hospital at the infectious disease clinic for my HIV. But, to put it into context, I am at greater risk from either being shot or hit by a car trying to get there.
But I fully expect the market to tumble all week long. I love to be wrong and let's hope that is the case.
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Tom Harrison from Seattle. Let me make it very clear. After Iowa, NH and Nevada wins, it became apparent that the support for socialist Democrat Bernie seemed to be strong to ensure his nomination but after being left far behind by Biden in South Carolina it became clear that Bernie's nomination is no longer a sure thing even after the support for Bernie remains very passionate and enthusiastic. Bernie and Biden are neck to neck in delegate count. Bernie's supporters need to be aware that a majority of Americans are petrified more of the dangers of socialism being brought to America than a nano sized Corona virus causing more than a handful of deaths much much less than deaths caused everyday by a variety of causes, old age and cancer being the top causes.
I think your hope that the economy will not rebound seems like wishful thinking by many of the staunch Bernie supporters who think if Trump cannot run on the economy, he cannot win. The demise of the strong economy is greatly exaggerated and that many immunocompetent Americans will die if Corona virus spreads like it did in China is shear fear mongering and will never ever happen and that is not because I am an optimist but because I am also a realistic virologist.
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@Girish Kotwal #1 and #2 are irrelevant the topic at hand. #3 assumes facts not in evidence.
And US and China are still waging a trade war. Self centered humans can do all their petty calculations, but nature takes its own course. Still having fun rocking the boat? Good luck to all of us.
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Washington State is keeping information low key within the state to the general public ( where my relatives live). But if you look at the health reports, it is now suspected that as many as 1,500 people may be infected. Many will be asymptotic for 2-14 days, yet infect others. This may have been going on there for 6 weeks.
As a result, the Governor has discreetly worked behind the scenes to create emergency funds for the low income workers who may be placed in isolation or the hospital. And he has worked to create financial assistance for small businesses that may find a large percentage of the workforce on sick leave I. The weeks ahead.
The Governor’s website has a statement about this. But it has not hit the news media there, and my relatives are oblivious. They also do not realize how much Fred Hutchinson ( one of the top regional cancer centers of USA), UWashington professors and Gates Foundation are working to diagnose the epidemic.
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@Jean
Asymptomatic? As in not symptomatic?
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@Jean - Thanks for this information about Governor Jay Inslee's pro-active response to the outbreak of Coronavirus in Washington state. The fact that Trump's administration has delegated the economic response to the potential pandemic to individual states to deal with in a hodge podge manner will definitely expose which states are pro-active, rely heavily on science, technology, good governance and coordinate well with the federal government including CDC, FDA & other agencies. It doesn't take a crystal ball to predict that the more affluent blue states like Washington, California, Connecticut, Massachusetts and New York will be exemplary potentially compared to the red states with less funding like West Virginia, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama or South Carolina. And, as you pointed out, the excellent universities like UWashington as well as the Gates Foundation that has already dedicated over $110 million to fight the Coronavirus. Also, as many have already pointed out, the discrepancy between medical treatment access for the majority of states' residents highlights the poor insight of the red states which chose to decline the Medicaid expansion that the Obama administration so brilliantly offered. Democrats have consistently had the foresight to imagine how a potential global viral pandemic could impact the availability of health treatment for all citizens, not just those who can afford medical deductibles & out of pocket expenses.
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That’s what a symptomatic means: without symptoms. But absence of symptoms does not equal absence of transmissible virus.
16
Give rich people tax cuts and interest rates cuts. That will stop the coronavirus.
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@Matthew Girard
I'm sure FOX could spin that idea so that their viewers found it acceptable
4
One also expect so called our government , not politicize this pandemic.
How that is helping, Trump is already creating defense mechanism Democrats are advertising that he cannot manage this pandemic.
Politicizing this type of health emergency is not even okay in Iran.
yet
We have to listen a president crying everyday, democrats trying to tore him down.
Give me a brake, this cannot be western developed nation , something wrong here.
5
Would it be helpful for all of us who are in good health and who want to, to get the virus and just sick it out at home for a few weeks? During these weeks the vulnerable stay at home. After these weeks there are hardly any virus carriers anymore so we can resume whatever we were doing. We take one hit collectively and then move on.
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@Marc Gergiev The idea might have some merit if the virus were better understood. It is unclear whether or not people can be reinfected. I think we need more information. There is also the question of whether young and healthy people sometimes have severe adverse reactions that might even be life-threatening. I think more research needs to be done ASAP before public policy steps such as you suggest can be safely taken.
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@Marc Um... NO. Why should we be sacrificial lambs to a lethal virus? People in their 30's have died in China, a country that unleashed this virus and has hidden its true scope. Personally I don't trust the authorities who are seeking to reassure us that this isn't so lethal, when people are dying every day and the pictures I've seen coming out of Wuhan are of men in hazmat suits disinfecting streets and building hospitals in 10 days.
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@Marc possible issues with your plan:
1. The older the parents ( or grandparents) the higher the risk. Plenty of grandparents help with child care while the children’s’ parents work.
2. Children are at very low risk, both for getting this virus and dying from it. The same can not be said for their grandparents. They may be at high risk.
3. It is not yet known, with certainty, how long the virus is transferable.
5
"Every day that factories stay closed and restaurants have no customers makes it harder to get things back up. On the flip side, the very nature of increased economic activity, with more person-to-person contacts, would make it harder to control the spread of the epidemic."
The Upshot today dealt with this very catch-22 of today's world, where if one thing won't get you, the other will. Business and supply chains are down which is good for quarantines as they become more widespread, but if they become the norm, business can't resume anyway and the vicious circle continues.
The song, "what doesn't kill you makes you strong," rings false in an era when economic downturn is caused by--you guessed it--the virus that started the whole thing in the first place.
10
This focus on trade, growth, and stock market has ignored environmental degradation, global warming etc as none of these effects are quantifiable. The new element in the mix Corona Virus is forcing economists to think better and deeper.
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@AKA
And how about overpopulation?
It is certainly a contributing factor to the spread of this frightening virus.
1
@AKA So right! Notice no discussion on the atmosphere is clouded with the smoke and soot from not just the months of fires in Australia, but around the world. It seems people believe that once the fires are out the problem is solved. My goodness the snow in Antic is discovered from the soot. No discussion that has on human illness. Humans are the dumbest on the planet and just look around the world to see who people put into power, Trump, Johnson, Bibi, Morriosn says it all. Jim Trautman
I certainly don’t want to make light of the pain, suffering and death but, if I was not an atheist I might think this was divine intervention for the 2020 election. Of course, believing in science I understand there are other factors at play.
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I think this demonstrates our utter dependence on China and the just in time supply chain. Great when it works, devastating when it does not.
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@pc
I remember well the microeconomics class I barely survived as a college Sophomore. The main mantra of the professor was efficient division of labor vis a vis national and international trade. It made sense to me then, even though I recall feeling sorry for those relegated to poorly paid factory jobs or migrant work so a luckier person thousands of miles away could have a cheaper television or bunch of grapes.
Once again Nature teaches us a lesson on humility. We could sure use one.
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@Ober
I learned those lessons but also the lessons of history about the perils of concentration and lack of diversification.
6
@KBronson
I take it you are not confining this to economic forces alone because these perils also exist in the natural world and affect human survival.
Please explain how cutting interest rates will help small businesses and their employees.
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@athena , the idea is that easier credit makes spending pick up—it’s a boost to activity, consumption, hiring, investment, and so on. But when a real-world combination of trouble, threat and uncertainty make people want to draw back, it’s not clear that cutting rates will help much. And they’ve been kept so low that there’s not much room to cut.
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@jb :
No, the idea is that minimal interest rates will persuade (or compel) savers to withdraw their money from low yield savings instruments to higher risk equities.
Why do you think European central banks have negative interest rates? To force lenders to take more money out of the banks and put it in stocks.
It may not stimulate the economy very much, but it will boost stock prices. That's all that matters to the big boys.
2
@ed connor , I think that's a rather small part of the larger picture.
1
Coronavirus is accomplishing what we have been so far unable to do to effectively address climate breakdown and our subsequent demise.
Only a reset of our economic priorities, away from consumerism, from endless growth, from the rat race – can save us.
This pandemic is at once a warning and an opportunity we should seize before it's too late.
253
@jw The pandemic has nothing to do with global warming. Personally I do believe in the science of climate change and that we need to take urgent measure, but many don't. It doesn't make for a convincing argument to try to link it to this virus.
7
@Roberta I actually don't think that jw was linking Covid-19 with climate breakdown and our subsequent demise. If you read their comment, they are saying that our global reaction to Covid-19 is the kind of reaction we should be having on a global level to climate change to reset our economic priorities. I think jw has a point and I hope you have a clearer understanding of what they meant.
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@Roberta If nothing else there has been an interesting development in China that demonstrates the relationship between the virus, the economy and anthropogenic climate change! With the moth balling of a lot of industry in parts of China due to the virus the air is much cleaner. This does not mean we can shut all of our industries and live happily ever after. It does mean that the quality of our air and health is directly linked to how we manage our energy production and usage.
19
Part of what we do not know is how fast and to what extent the virus spreads in a community. If it spreads fast, and many people are asymptomatic, many people in the community will become immune within a relatively short period of time. In that case, the epidemic will end. If the fall in the number of Chinese cases holds up, the epidemic might last 4 months from start to finish.
6
@turbot: Is it worth the effort to develop a test for people who have already developed an immune response to covid 19?
@turbot , we don’t know how long an immune response will last. There has been some disquieting news that people might get it more than once. Still waiting on word about that.
22
@turbot perhaps you should consider that historically epidemics tend to come in waves and that pathogens evolve to continue to live....less important then lethality may be the two weeks of lost productivity and earnings by those infected and the cumulative knock on effects of lost income in the economy.....
6
China is affected much worse by the Coronavirus than the US or Europe: 80,000 cases in China, compared to 80 in the US.
But China has a much better chance of quick recovery, they are already handing out color coded identifications to their citizens to control the spread.
Meanwhile we in the US do not know who is in our country legally and who is not. How many infected illegal citizens will get to non-emergency care where they have to pay without insurance to get treated? This can get worse very quick.
13
@Bhaskar , anyone without insurance will be loath to go to an ER, and the same for high-deductible insured people. But it’s not clear there will be medical space and care for many patients anyway. This situation goes way beyond consideration of legal or illegal immigration.
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@John Harper and jb
Yes, I am tired of hearing how we cannot afford Medicare for All. Is there any doubt now that we cannot afford _not_ to have it? Even the rich, with the best policies money can buy, are vulnerable to this one.
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@Bhaskar
Most cases are being addressed around the world by asking people to stay home and take care of themselves. There isn’t much to be done for treatment anyway. Raising the health insurance issue is just trying to nail your pet issue to the wagon that happens to be rolling past.
7
This global assessment is a joke. The market will recover. Will it hit the levels we saw 2 months ago that Is doubtful but it will gone back
11
@George Oh, I do hope you are right, I've suffered a very bruising loss. But the questions raised seem very valid, and none are funny.
22
@George
The market will recover just like it did in 2008. But this pandemic will have a lasting effect on all who live through it, and will change attitudes along the way toward those responsible for our health and safety.
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@George I find the Market's performance to be overwhelming gassy:. An unjustified balloon rather like a real estate development bubble....the Market is simply another Trump casino heading for bankruptcy....
1