No is the time to listen to the experts. If you are 60 or over, or if you have preexisting respiratory problems, you are at high risk. Error on the side of caution. Keep potential carriers in quarantine . Give them protection and treatment as needed. You want to keep your city from becoming Wuhan. Don't panic but realize this is killing people and crippling the economy. Everyone is affected. lets do the right thing. Help those affected and keep others from being infected.
7
The economic harm from trying to isolate it will be unnecessary since it won't likely be contained. It is also very likely that the fear of it is far overblown. I don't know if governments are just posturing in case it is truly severe so they don't get blamed for not doing anything, but I find that unlikely since most government do all kinds of deadly and cruel things to their people without a hint of concern. It may be that they are so inept that they really don't know that it won't be stopped no matter what they do, and that it is highly likely that they are under counting significantly the actual number of cases and so it is likely not that deadly. And of course, knowing how our government works (much like china and Russia really), my guess is the specter of having a two percent drop in the population and thus a two percent drop in their profits has then shivering in fear.
1
If people can spread a virus without having symptoms and it is spread mainly through tiny droplets in the air when people cough or sneeze into the air or into their hands and then touch a hard surface like a touchscreen, tray table, handrail or door handle, isn’t part of prevention asking everyone, with symptoms or not, to cover their mouths with their elbow or a tissue if they have to cough or sneeze and then throw the tissue away? Why are there not signs with pictures everywhere, on buses, trains, airports, train and bus stations and public places showing people how to cover their mouths with their elbow or a tissue if they have to cough or sneeze? All of the experts say to wash your hands often and not to rub your eyes, nose or mouth, probably because someone coughed in their hand, then contaminated a hard surface that you touched. So why not ask people to stop coughing and sneezing in their hands (as I see often in public transportation)? The experts say a mask may not protect you, but if you cough or sneeze, the mask will protect other people if you are wearing one. I’ve seen a report that even loud talking can spread tiny droplets of saliva that contain the virus. Then wouldn’t wearing a mask protect other people from those secretions as well? There could also be hand sanitizers and tissues made widely available for low cost or free at every bus and train station, airport and public place, donated or paid for by donors. Would all this not prevent at least some disease?
6
This is shocking. I'm so appalled. Oh, the horror of being quarantined on a luxury ship! Travesty. How dare the government falsely imprison (sarcasm)... The government cares about who gets sick and who lives!? Perhaps the government only cares because they fear COVID-19 could kill a loved one or themselves... Sure, I get it, just quarantine an entire state, I'm so sure no one will care...
1
They already let a bunch infected people back in the US and stopped in 2 different states along the way. Pandora's box has already been opened.
2
What do they do with those cruise ships? Burn them? I can’t imagine anyone buying tickets on those ships ever again.
3
@Anita Larson - I don't think the average retired person like myself will be any more eager to book a cruise than to get on a 737 MAX. I feel bad for the people and the cruise lines. The companies did nothing wrong except be in the wrong place at the right time. But, there will always be that lingering thought in the back of one's mind - will some superbug break out while on vacation and get one trapped on board.
3
So a British man hangs around a ski chalet and infects five people. Nothing more.
An infected Chinese business man attends a business meeting in Germany and infects a few people. It stops there.
Rogue infected people have popped up in the USA, Finland, elsewhere in France and throughout Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore. The virus has dead-ended everywhere, it seems.
Where is the pandemic? Why is this only a Hubei/Wuhan problem?
If it’s so contagious why haven’t we seen at least one additional chain develop? Just curious.
I realize people might be infected and not know but maybe the virus is simply weaker than we all think, which lends credence to a hypothesis that things are only so bad in China because 1000s of people we’re sick and walking around the city before the Chinese acknowledged the problem.
I would like to add an important qualifier to this story: The Reported number of new cases seems to be slowing; The Reported number of new deaths also seems to be slowing. That China is lying in their reporting is a given. What will determine when the epidemic ends is how badly they are lying.
3
All of it, the deaths, rapid spreading, financial tumult and the widespread anger and frustration at the Chinese government, would not happen, for the built in systemic lapses of action due to programmed inability to take quick action by the local authorities in Wutan. I hope there's a lesson learned.
3
Yes! We all know, for example, that a country like the US would have acted quickly, decisively and effectively just like they did for H1N1!
4
@Charlie Pereira
Three weeks ago, nobody even heard of Wuhan. Suddenly, everyone is an expert at local Chinese government failures, especially when they can point the blame away from dictator Xi and the Communist Party's pathetic and criminal governance.
3
@Pigsy - It took Reagan a long, long time before he could even say the word AIDS.
Its very easy to quarterback from our easy chairs after the game is over but overreaction to any "bug" could be worse than the virus itself due to the impact it could have on everyone's economy or folks protesting over quarantining. I don't see that any leader has much of a chance of getting things perfect. You are damned if you do, damned if you don't.
2
What rich irony. After years of Silicon Valley sanctimoniously telling people in dying industries to get new skills and move to where the jobs are, Tim Cook discovers the downside of blindly relying on totalitarian-ruled China for cheap, inexhaustible labor and a market for iPhones.
One wonders whether Apple has been compelled to remove ‘Winnie-the-Pooh’ from iBooks or risk being kicked out of China. If it’s not the infantile caprices of an insecure dictator, it’s the Stone Age hygiene and folk remedies that spawn new epidemics with such regularity you can pencil them into your calendar a year in advance.
I bet Apple shareholders are wondering why Tim Cook did not diversify his suppliers, possibly even manufacturing in Central America or the US. Sure, their profit margin will plummet to merely “outstanding “, but business is full of trade-offs.
14
1. Start a company.
2. Sell nothing, because consumers might get sick.
3. Profit.
4
I've been wondering when the NYT (and other media outlets) will report to us on the care and condition of the crews of the affected cruise ships?
These women and men have also been exposed to the Coronavirus and are apparently stuck on these ships with no governments to assist them, or evacuate them or oversee their care and treatment in any way.
These crew members are people and yet the media seems to be uninterested in them. Why?
There's a story here and it's not being reported on.
33
Because only China makes mistakes. Reporting on those debacles would weaken that narrative.
5
At this point, there is not much choice other than quarantine. Perhaps it seems medieval, but quarantine is an improved version of the disastrous world wide flu epidemic of the early 20th century. The situation points to the reality, that despite our sophistication as societies, we must look to old fashioned means to prevent a virus from taking over. In the future, perhaps there will be medicine to take that prevents contagion. Until this happens, we must go the old fashioned way of hand washing, masks and avoiding large crowds in areas where the virus is active. Yes, the world economy and China's in particular may suffer. The only other option is a world-wide outbreak where everyone comes to a stand-still.
13
Well, one thing for sure, I am glad I do not like to take cruises.
I am no doctor.
But I would think having so many folks cooped on a ship - with even just one person infected - how easy it would be to spread it around.
The company that owns the cruise ship would ask for a 500 bed or whatever number hospital or a hotel to spread apart these folks and quarantine them.
As to numbers - Dr. Gottleib - the ex FDA chief was on CNBC yesterday. And he gave some interesting information.
He said if Chinese data is to be believed - hardly anybody in age less than 20 got infected and no children or babies at all.
Reminded me of Andromeda Strain - perhaps these young folks are a clue to how to fight this virus.
As to elderly and folks with underlying medical issues falling victims to thus virus - hard to understand why this is even a surprise.
While we are all right now for these drastic actions of long term confinements and restriction on movements of huge number of folks - a year from now - it may be shown they were counter productive.
7
@Neil Young people have a more robust immune system
2
I don't understand why arrangements cannot be made for the US military, with its substantial military installations in Japan, to take the remaining Americans from the ship and have them finish their quarantine in military quarters.. Actually, have never understood why they didn't do that from the beginning. Americans returned to the US and in quarantine are at US military bases.
7
@Neil
If Karma were to decide that one catches the viral flu, is it better to get it:
(a) partying and vacationing and having a great time while on a cruise
or
(b) touching the remote control that came from one of the affected places while sitting at home watching TV
Me? (a).
3
Spring is around the corner. This crisis may subside as warmer weather rolls in.
But the big concern is the winter after. The virus may lie dormant and disperse, carried undetected through travelers and goods.
What happens next winter when the virus get potent again, how many more new places and people will be at risk?
15
Sadly, cases in Singapore prove that warmer weather is not guaranteed to arrest the rate of infection.
19
China should be held accountable for the many, many, mistakes it has made regarding this virus which have contributed to its spread.
12
As long as other countries are held accountable for their mistakes. “Oops, guess there weren’t any WMDs in Iraq”.
13
The CCP is a criminal organisation and president Xi is their leader. The handling of this crisis has illustrated to what lengths they are willing to go to hang on to power and oppress the Chinese people. The CCP under Xi has been able to build useless islands in the South China sea which has cost them billions but is unable to provide the Chinese people with the medical facilities which are vital to their existence. Probably because they haven't worked out how to scam money off it.
15
@Steven
Tell that to Charles Barkley and Adam Silver.....
@Steven What better way to destroy the paper money supply than to have a virus that contaminates it for up to 9 days. I worry about the homeless population to be honest. They are the most vulnerable during events like this...
2
The spread of this virus was utterly preventable. How many pandemics does it take before the ‘authorities’ in every country will do what’s required to protect their own citizens and the global population?
That means immediately isolating and placing under quarantine people in and around the epicenter for as long as necessary.
That means making it everywhere illegal to trade in wildlife for human consumption (food, ‘medicine’, pets).
This ain’t rocket science, folks. But as Albert Einstein said “Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.”
18
In all the news we are reading about the coronavirus and the impact it is showing, there is not much or no debate on what we can all do in the future.
There are a few lessons to be learnt here. One of them is significant. "Never place all eggs on one basket", is true here. All the manufacturing plants in China, should spread their businesses to several other locations. Today's update here is highlighting problems businesses are facing, with shortage of materials at the production centers. This is causing a cyclic effect all around, on the supply and demand chain.
It is time for businesses to seek for alternatives, and not concentrate on one source.
15
@CITIZEN It also indicates that the USA should not have handed over all our industries to China. Some things have gotten worse since we have done that. For instance, refrigerators. GE, mostly located in the USA, goes by the year of an appliance, whereas other appliances do not go by the year, and the appliance could change many times within a year. Of course that means, good luck getting a part, if it happens to exist, and if you don't mind waiting months while your food is in coolers. Our kitchen is all GM appliances because of this. We were about to purchase a Samsung, and were warned by a savy clerk that they are impossible to get parts for. The situation was not this way until most appliances came to be manufactured in South Korea or China.
1
We are too reliant on machines. Smartphones, computers etc. Everything is online.
10
It would be more than appreciated if the cruise lines, and air lines that support them, wrote off March & April and refunded everyone's money. My wife and I are booked out of Yokohama on April 11 on the Westerdam, and it is increasingly unlikely that voyage will happen, certainly as originally planned, if at all. And yet, we and thousands like us sit in limbo, needing to get on with out lives and make other plans. The damage to the cruise/vacation industry this virus is starting to cause would be much less if those affected took appropriate remedial action.
19
@OldPadre:
I'm surprised your company hasn't gotten in touch with you. My husband and I are booked on the QM2 (fabulous ship) for a transatlantic crossing in May. Cunard has already issued press releases about this novel coronavirus and what it plans to do and how passengers can get compensated.
8
I agree it is a shabby way to treat customers. No matter when this "quarantine" ends, it will be months and months before that ship sails again, if ever. They may just substitute another ship for that itinerary and expect you to take it, who knows, though I think it is unlikely. More likely they will cancel.
In the meantime, I would just sit tight. I would not cancel, but wait for them to cancel, as I'm sure they will. Don't do anything that may deprive you of the full refund & other benefits you should get when they cancel. If you can afford it without your refund money, go ahead and plan some other getaway.
3
If any evidence is needed of why such restrictive measures are being taken to limit the spread of the virus one can’t do better than read these comments. What a festival of fantasy, paranoia, ignorance, and armchair medicine. Such nonsense does not help the public to understand the nature of the threat and measures to avoid the disease. Instead, there is misinformation and distrust overwhelming science and common sense.
9
The comment from the British passenger David Abel was disturbing. People who test positive are not being taken to hospitals but to hostels without medical facilities, phones or WIFI?
10
Did he say he has symptoms? If not, he does not need medical attention. He only needs to be isolated so not to infect others, and being observed in case medical intervention becomes necessary. Majority of cases never develop symptoms and we should focus hospital resources on those who need treatment. Otherwise the system will get overwhelmed and those who are in serious condition (including on-Corona cases) will not be treated properly - a sign of panic as what is happening In hot spots in China.
4
@NA majority of cases are *mild* but not asymptomatic.
1
Majority of those who report to hospitals have mild symptoms. There are huge number of those who are not even aware they have the virus. In case the cruise or evacuees, they know they have the virus only because they tested everyone including a symptomatic ones.
1
As this continues the economic slowdown could spread to the US. This is a downturn that is not fixable by playing with interest rates because it is caused by actual shutdowns due to lack of parts coming from China.
If Trump gets the credit for a booming economy, as he should, he also gets the blame for a downturn. If the voters are no longer blinded by the economy they may begin to focus on his actions and personality, if that is the case Trump is in trouble.
14
My heart goes out to the Chinese who continue to suffer under a brutal and inhumane regime, but will American businesses finally realize that putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket makes no cents!
31
I have great empathy and sympathy for the people infected by the virus and their families, and even China, though their traditional food sources/lacking sanitary regulations make them more susceptible to these viruses (is this the second or third time of one originating there?).
I have NO empathy or sympathy for the multi-nationals whose supply-chains have been interrupted by the reality of what can happen when they're scattered all over the world: boo-doggone-hoo.
Keep your supply chains local, i.e. in this country, pay your people fairly, and grow more consumers here, instead of trying to import them. The existing citizenry is up to its neck in debt, due to years of job losses and miniscule or no increases in pay, thanks to your "global" supply chains, which are more susceptible to crisis' such as this virus.
29
The data from China is something I am not taking for granted. The CDC test kits were flawed, readings from Singapore spoke about many folks testing false negative, lung CT scans uninformative, even if cases were suspect. The problem has always been the irrational and scattered response to a contagious disease. In China, because the government is authoritarian and muffles voices, doctors rebelled and rightly spread word of a zoonotic new virus that had spread to humans. The problem is, this was before they even understood the extent of the illness it caused. This must have barreled into public panic, fanned by utterly foolish government directives, a complete absence of experts to guide them from other countries, to pool intelligence and strategize. Now you have an influx of frightened people rushing to the few overwhelmed hospitals. No great diagnostics, unsure antivirals. So what do they do? The only thing they can, build more hospitals. And by that time the bug is already out all over Asian countries. The results, puzzling as it appears mild enough to all except those who are more susceptible to any illness, those with heart, lung, kidney or diabetes problems. Thankfully children are spared. Chinese governmental mismanagement, has now imprisoned and stalled it's own people, destroyed the economic futures of many of it's own people and stalled the world. It's here to stay, let's deal with it in a measured manner. Pandora's box once opened is impossible to shut.
7
Mortality rate = deaths / (recoveries+deaths) = 1875/(1875+13171) = 12%. Even outside China, the death rate is 4%. Eventually, I won't have to put up with people complaining that people are excessively worried about this.
9
@Andrew Nielsen What? This calculation is nonsense. The death rate is approximately 2.3%.
4
@Andrew Nielsen What? This calculation is nonsense. The death rate is approximately 2.3%. It's MUCH lower outside China. It doesn't help having people act as authorities when they can't do simple calculations.
3
@Sue – It's not nonsense, it's just a different metric.
The ~2% rate is deaths / (deaths + recoveries + unresolved).
Never plant one species of tree on an entire city block. If the species fall to a virus then the block will have no trees.
The same could be said for factories. Most are in China and see were that got us.
30
@T. B. In other words, "diversify your portfolio." I agree.
6
I am not sure what annoys me more. The virus that continues to spread, despite drastic measures of quarantines and travel bans, or people who ridicule others that are concerned with "just a flu".
39
Call me unfeeling, but I've been rather shocked by emotional CNN coverage of people from the Diamond Princess tearful about getting bored in their luxury floating hotel rooms, complaining about seating arrangements on the flight home, or cross that 'their holidays have been ruined'.
To me that is *very* myopic.
79
@Martin : I saw that too. I am shocked by how many Americans even have the money for cruises. And then they're complaining about having to pack their own food, use port-o-potties, etc.
I think CNN relates a little too much with the wealthy class having to endure the indignities of the masses.
And there seems to be virtually NO coverage of the fact that without strictly handling of people coming off the outbreak hot-spot of a cruise ship, you end up with a disaster like what's unfolding in Cambodia right now. That is, a place that's free of COVID-19 and less well-equipped to deal with an outbreak potentially becoming a new hot spot.
17
@Martin You seem to be lacking the empathy gene.
1
@Martin
I didn’t know anyone still watched CNN. It neither informs nor makes me happy.
5
"An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11, which suggests a fatality rate of 2.3 percent."
Given the number of known *asymptomatic cases*, especially in people under 30, that fatality rate (we started at 4%) will come down, and multiple-passage (through humans) attenuated nCoV will just enter the seasonal flu genepool, with a mortality of around 0.1%.
2
@Martin By that reasoning, I hope you are under 30. I sure am not.
1
Well in as much as I would like to believe that this Coronavirus outbreak isn’t as bad as the media’s is making it out to be over in China. But, one thing that really just burns my wool is there are many similar events just like the events happening now dating back to world war 2 during the halacaust and the use of chemical agents to poison and exterminate Millions of innocent people. Zyklon B was said to have been used to fumigate and kill millions of people and has the same deadly affects on humans causing severe acute respiratory failure just as the the Coronavirus does. I’ve been doing my own investigating on the matter and I looked up a history of past events during world war 2 and the series of events which led up to the hallocaust.
2
What on earth does the holocaust (note spelling) have to do with communicable diseases? I don’t have to do any “research” to say that the answer is none.
30
@Stevenz Thank you Stevenz for straightening that out.
5
Who is the greatest virologist in the world, i don't know either, but i think if the New York Times is going to run stories about a killer virus everyday, than they should find the best expert in the world and put him on retainer, so we begin to deal with facts, and what to do, rather than hyperbole.
17
@Lonnie: Good idea! And, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the "best expert in the world"...is a her.
11
Imagine that the US would try to quarantine, say California. Can you imagine the riots in the streets and the shootouts? It would be total anarchy, and that is if we just try and quarantine one (albeit the most populated) state.
14
I honestly cannot imagine that. The US strikes me as a very civilized country and society, where the majority follow rules and even enforce them themselves. Not quite sure why such dystopia view of the US and it’s people.
4
@Michael Anthony
Right--no one is even talking about the problematic mixture of guns and quarantine. That is one hot potato.
4
@Michael Anthony, if it was for the greater good I would be fine with a quarantine in California, and I bet I am not alone.
3
It's a good thing it happened in China first. At least the Communist Party can enact draconian measures to keep the population from moving about freely. If this had happened in the US, protests over the "civil rights" of the infected would have caused the virus to spread even more widely. On the other hand, if it hadn't been China, the economy wouldn't be in such peril. The disease exposes how dependent the whole world has become on China, in effect putting all their eggs in one basket. After this disease is stopped, China may never again be so dominant.
13
@Jamie Yes, one person from the ship already broke quarantine and headed home to the PNW, and is basically bragging about it on the local news here, because he decided that he has no fever, no symptoms, and therefore must be fine. Infuriating. I completely sympathize with those enduring these long quarantines, but they are in place (as disorganized as they seem to be) for a reason. I really hope this guy isn't carrying the virus or.
12
Anyone who gets on a plane or a CRUISE SHIP or any mode of public transportation is insane. Stay home, chill out and if need be, skype.
18
I think it may be best for the NY Times and other media sites to turn off online comments on COVID19 stories to prevent the spread of misinformation and panic, of which I see much in this and other threads. Got something important and factual to share? Write an Op-Ed or letter to the editor instead. Those are fact checked. Here, anyone can say anything.
26
@Amm:
Totally agree. And I said that in a message to the Reader Center. You can do likewise. Scroll to the bottom of this page, any page, at the NYT to contact the Reader Center.
3
@Amm
Because trying to control information worked out so well in China?
7
@KBronson
There's a difference between information and misinformation. These comment sections are rapidly becoming cesspools of misinformation. Unfortunately.
5
An English language report of the original scientific research paper is available online here http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
2
Cruise ships are giant incubators for contagious diseases. If the cruise ship industry want to stay afloat it better design ships that are virus-proof. For whatever reason virus and bacteria flow freely through these ships so, though i am not an engineer, i would say the problem is with the air duct system. Cruse ships are just as dangerous as the 737 Max, the only difference is Boeing is trying to fix the Max and i have not one heard one word from the Cruise ship industry stating that they even have a problem. Adapt or perish.
8
@Lonnie
You can't design a ship that's "virus-proof." Yeesh.
17
@Lonnie
Every cruise line in the industry is aware of this and "adapting," as you put it. Here's just one example -- a press release from Cunard, which is owned by Carnival -- and again, everyone else in the business is doing the same thing. Also, since ships have tons of experience with the common norovirus, their staffs know how to disinfect every nook and cranny:
"Travel Health Advisories from Cunard"
https://www.cunard.com/en-us/contact-us/travel-health-advisories
3
@Lisa Simeone They also said that you could not go to the moon and back and yet it was done. It can be done, and it has to be done because every year seems to bring another one of these killer super bugs. This could be the new normal.
2
Seeing what’s happening on the 2 cruise ships and the infected number keep creeping up outside of China, I think I can say China’s effort to control the virus have been under-appreciated.
COVID19 have proven to be much more difficult to detect than previously expected. Method of prevention is the same as the flu but the virus is much better at hiding.
I don’t think there will be a global catastrophe because winter is almost over but cannot say if COVID19 will come back next year
11
@AmateurHistorian By then their will be a vaccine.
1
@Lonnie
It will take more than a year to come up with a vaccine and have it tested, approved, mass-produced, and available to the public. More than a year. This is according to Anthony Fauci, head of infectious diseases at NIH.
Vaccines don't grow on trees.
11
@AmateurHistorian China's efforts to control the COVID19 is covered in the Asian media, like in Taiwan, a lot more than it is here in the US. As a result, they know a lot more about China's efforts. That said, it should also be noted China has made an attempt to release the virus into Taiwan by smuggling in an infected passenger onto a plane that was evacuating Taiwanese citizens from China. Had Taiwanese officials not caught on to China's ploy, the whole of Taiwan and all the foreigners there would be in danger of being infected as well. That fact has been underreported and under appreciated.
3
Newspapers often make basic math errors about flu mortality rates. In the US, the death rate from flu was 14/10,000, or 0.014%, NOT "up to 0.1%" as reported here. Of course, in some populations the death rate is much higher.
Assuming COVID-19 has a death rate of 2.8%, that is 200 times more deadly than flu. It seems that it is almost as contagious. So it is pretty easy to see how it could completely overwhelm even the best medical system in the world.
8
@Daniel M
Sorry, I made a few basic mistakes. Good editors who can do math are so important...
The mortality rate for seasonal flu in the US was 14/100,000 (not 14/10,000) = 0.014%.
But this was the mortality for the entire population, and not everyone got flu. Exactly how many people get flu every year is EXTREMELY difficult to measure, but assuming 10% of the population (which is probably low) that is 0.14% case fatality rate, which makes COVID-19 about 20 times more deadly than flu.
The point remains, that could easily overwhelm the US health care system.
5
@Daniel M
Sorry, I made a basic math mistake. Good editors who can do math are so important...
14/100,000 (not 14/10,000) =
0.014%.
The rest of the post is accurate. I think it looks like on a case-by-case basis, COVID-19 is about 200 times more contagious than the typical seasonal flu.
PLEASE check my math.
2
@Daniel So far this year 10,000 people have died out of 19 million who contracted the flu...in the U.S. That's 0.05%. Your calculations are incorrect. Mortality rate is based on the number of deaths of those who contracted the illness, not for the whole population.
5
I like Japan, even admire so many of ist aspects. I Always wanted to learn from the Japanese how to handle business, Technology, Production Systems, and Life in General. But, even so, sometimes I confronted Situations in Japan, that I could not understand even half way. This ship has reminded me of such situations leaving me speechless. 14 days ago, it might have been a difficult decision to make, they took it and Things went wrong. OK. But tomorrow, I guess they're not releasing the remaining 2000+ people with no further quarantine, do they?
Sorry, but Maybe 14 days ago, the chances were1 or 2 in 1000 that a passanger or Crew member was infected. Today this Risk is Maybe 1 in 10 or more (!). As a matter of fact, the remaining passangers suffer a far hihger likelihood to cary the virus than any neighbourhood in Wuhan City.
I guess, all countries Need to pick their citizens up ASAP, means within short days. Then, the passangers would sadly have to pass a new time in Quarantine...but this time under safe conditions...and not on ship with no effective protection.
I feel really sorry fore every one of them. We can only hope tat every one of the infected will not fall sick or ecover soon and fully.
21
People often compare this new coronavirus infection to the seasonal flu and there is a general assumption by many people that the common seasonal flu is far worse since it affects more people but COVID-19 is far more serious infection.
The case fatality rate of COVID-19 is 2.5%. By comparison, the case fatality rate for the seasonal flu in the US is between 0.10 percent and 0.18 percent.
China has already lost many health care workers to this illness including an ophthalmologist and a neurosurgeon. We have vaccines available for the seasonal flu but not for COVID-19 and no effective antiviral medications either as of now and this illness seems to be easily transmissible from person to person just like the seasonal flu. Other than hand washing there is very little we can do to prevent this infection. Also, there are many unknowns even the incubation period. The 2 to 14 days incubation period is only an estimate, can vary greatly between patients. An outlier of a 24 days incubation period has been observed in a recent study but the WHO said it could actually reflect a second exposure rather than a long incubation period.
The COVID-19 may initially present with few or no symptoms. This disease has already spread to 26 more countries apart from China.
The good news is scientists are already racing to develop a vaccine for 2019-nCOV, a feat that experts say is technically possible but the bad news is, it is not going to be available to help during this outbreak.
11
I teach a lot of Chinese students online (flute) and I know that all my students are on lock down and have been for weeks. They are in Beijing, Nanjiang and Xian.
15
China's response has been remarkable, a comprehensive effort that would be impossible to implement elsewhere. Their efforts are still imperfect. Failures/shortcomings may yet be revealed. That said, the rest of the world must learn something from China.
That the Westerdam disembarked without testing all passengers, multiple times given the known false negative issue, shows stunning negligence. Cambodia's PM is now conducting a political show that will result in spread of the virus there. Westerdam passengers, who didn't quickly fly out, are touring at the PM's behest rather than self-quarrantining. Unconscionable.
China prohibited sale of thermometers and analgesics because they knew people would try to evade quarrantine. The Westerdam relied on self-reporting. Those honest enough to report or go to infirmary were the only ones tested, a series of fever checks the only shipwide measure. It is human nature that fear of quarrantine would lead some to attempt to evasion. China is willing to concede this. What of the rest of us?
A US passenger, 40ish with a healthcare background, expressed how stressful, upsetting her experience. Imagine you're 83, traveling with your 85 y.o. husband. If you thought you were sick, how great the tempation to take analgesics and avoid the infirmary, in hopes of getting off that boat and back to the US asap. People spin self-justifications. For better or worse, only an enforcable response from authorities can act against selfish human nature.
19
Hey NYT, I get that it is important to cover what is happening in China, but please pay attention to what ISN’T happening in the USA! The cdc updates the American update report Monday, Wednesday and Friday. They have only tested 467 people since January 21. That means they are not LOOKING very hard. Now they should include health care workers with pneumonia as a person to investigate if flu and sputum are negative. A physician in Japan with no identifiable link tested positive. I know it is unstoppable, but slow it down so ICU beds are not double bunked.
28
Now, imagine it is late October/or November 1st. The corona virus is spiking in the US. Trump orders all citizens in cities with population of 1 million to quarantine at home. Sorry all these blue state citizens won't be allowed to go to the polls, but it's a public health crisis. You know, a national emergency.
11
These restrictions (on the freedom of movement of large fractions of the Chinese population) are the price paid by them, as a result of choices and policies serving a secretive, oppressive and minimally accountable ruling elite.
Emerging diseases, including the risk of those knowingly ignored in China's open air wild meat markets, are a threat to the whole world. This current episode should serve as a wake up call.
Thanks to still widely unquestioned globalization, hardly ever questioned technomania, and, above all, the lasting environmental degradation wrought by human-caused global climate change (due to still-continuing subsidies for, and deeply ingrained addiction, to fossil fuels), this won't be the last such emerging disease.
10
@Sage Winter or cold weather is linked to cold and flu outbreaks because people tend to stay inside or in places where there is no fresh air. The same can be said now in warm climates because people stay inside air conditioned places to stay cool. Six of one/half dozen of the other. So it is not the temperature, it is the co-habitation in enclosed spaces that is the culprit.
7
Mcban and Doe:
As anyone paying attention to actual science for the last 25+ years will know, global warming is not a problem because the average global temperature is rising a few degrees. It is the many resulting changes in weather patterns, in ecosystems, in species extinction and migration rates, and the further effects of those changes on human habitality, viability of forests, the integrity of arable farmland and of water distribution, and the proliferation of disease vectors. This coronavirus comes from bats whose traditional habitats and food supplies are being disrupted by climate change.
1
@Jane Doe
So why isn't the entire population of New York sick all the time?
I've read these viruses are simply more potent in colder temperatures.
The more I read about the more I believe the outbreak of Coronavirus is the biggest threat to our health in modern history. There is no question about it! Please learn how to protect yourself and your family now - don't wait when it'll be too late. Don't panic but educate yourself because this virus is coming to us sooner or later.
16
@AG86
So, do tell - how do you protect yourself?
The health authorities don't even know yet
1
I wonder if the high rate of cigarette smoking in China is among the "underlying conditions" that is contributing to the high death rate among the elderly.
20
@Luke
Smoking and bad air pollution. PM 2.5 exposure is linked to many lung/heart problems. Chinese smoke about twice as much as Americans.
4
Curious. We've heard from Treasury how the virus could affect the US. We've heard from Apple and other companies about how the virus may affect bottom lines.
Why have we not heard word one from our Surgeon General about the epidemic and what might America face?
Looks like the almighty dollar might be safe but what about our fellow citizens?
17
@Patrick
For the life of me, I can't figure out why our top health directors are not willing to step in front of the people of this country and address concerns. Updates at CDC online, travel alerts on State Department websites are fine and well, but where are the news conferences with experts. But no one seems willing to do much of this communication, to take questions and respond to concerns. I don't undertand that. It's a basic communication responsibility of these officials and I have been wondering why they aren't doing this part of their jobs. Even Tedros at WHO seems to say little. Is there a conductor driving this train?
15
@Name
I fear it's trump's 'whack-a-mole' administration- stick your neck out, become visible, get your career lopped off.
The examples are legion and depressing.
7
@Name
they only update the CDC website on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. I’ve been reading the cdc call in press conferences. They are grim. The press is not really covering this well at all.
8
China is doing everything possible to stop the spread of the Coronavirus and using all means possible. It has learned from the experience of the SARS Corona virus a decade and a half ago. It has the power to keep 150 million Chinese (10% of its entire population) under a lock down and it can afford to put its economy on the back burner and focus on its war on Corona (COVID-19). This is history in the making and we should do everything to help China to win this war against a one of a kind nanometer sized monster than is only visible under the electron microscope, not seen by the naked eye or on a radar screen. The world has to be brave and strategic and employ a multi-pronged approach to wipe every COVID-19 from the face of the earth as fast as is possible.
15
China learned next to nothing from the SARS virus. China’s healthcare system is woefully neglected, nowhere near ready for this epidemic. The Chinese Communist Party prioritizes $Trillions for One Belt One Road while it neglects healthcare infrastructure for its own citizens.
8
As opposed to the US which makes sure that every citizen has ready access to the best care in the world.
Wanna buy a bridge?
1
Too bad Guam wasn't fitted out with hospitals and facilities for treating quarantined patients. The location would seem to be ideal for that.
2
@Clarice, I spent many years living on Guam. The public medical infrastructure there isn't good. I shuddered when I first read that Guam had been considered as a quarantine and/or transit location. I suspect it was the US military that put the kibosh on Guam's participation. Between the Air Force and the Navy, Guam is home to more than enough US military personnel and their dependents, and military infrastructure, to make a coronavirus outbreak there a major national-defense issue.
9
Will President Trump control the Covfefe Virus like he tries to control everything in America? We're standing at the abyss of a pandemic. Do you think Donald Trump's wall ("promises made, promises kept") will keep a deadly virus away from our country and our people? Will this be a redux of the Spanish Flu in 1918, of the Bubonic Plague in the 1300s? Will Americans be restricted, locked down in our homes for the duration? Time for Trump's failing government to get with the program and inform us all about the new viral threat and what to do if it arrives in our homeland.
2
I suggest, at a minimum, preparing for the possibility of a pandemic.
Buy yourself a few R95 face masks (local hardware store) -- these have charcoal absorbent and are more efficient than N95.
Buy a pair of swimming goggles to protect your eyes.
Buy disposable surgical gloves, disinfectant, and hand sanitizer.
Stock two weeks of bottled water and simple dried / tinned food (rice, pasta, beans) in case.
9
@Laughingdog Um, you might need more than two weeks of food and water. How long has the outbreak been going on in Hubei, China? With no clear sign of winding down? You'll probably want several MONTHS of food and water.
12
I suspect that this virus is going to spread further.
I learned today that one Korean fellow, right here, in my district, died from this. He was thirty and had been to Hainan.
20
If the Japanese government had problem texting all of the 3700 people on Diamond Princess, how did Westerdam operator "screened" all 2000 people on board their ship to know they were not infected with the coronavirus? What does it even mean, "screen"?
5
@Doodle : I believe their "screen" is taking a passenger's temperature -- with a not-so-reliable digital thermometer that measures the forehead temperature from a distance.
Keep in mind that passengers can take a fever-reducing OTC (advil, tylenol, etc) to get past the fever scan.
Also keep in mind that patients can be asymptomatic or in the incubation phase and still carrying the disease.
These screens are meaningless.
5
“The new virus is deadlier then the flu” Didn’t we know that already? I know we cannot get a straight story out of China but it seems that we cannot get a straight story from the media as well.
5
@Michael Anthony, We don't get a complete "straight story" because there isn't one, yet. And there won't be, until all the necessary data are collected, made available and then analyzed, and those analyses evaluated further. That won't happen so long as the epidemic remains dynamic and so long as the personnel fighting it remain in "crisis mode," which is where things stand today.
Don't be upset if you read "the new virus is deadlier than the flu" over and over again -- consistent repetition (as opposed to flip-flopping) is what an incipient "straight story" looks like.
6
@RR so when do you think all the data will be analyzed? Perhaps when I am stepping over dead bodies. Do you think by then all of the data will be analyzed?
1
I would like to know how long this virus can live on surfaces. I work in the fashion industry and am being sent garments made in sample rooms within Mainland China and do not know if they will be safe to handle.
11
I read that Coronaviruses can survive on inanimate objects for up to nine days. It must be bad because China’s central bank is destroying its currency to not further spread the virus. Since money is handled many times a day.
6
I'm hard pressed to believe anything coming out of China. Similarly, and if this were happening here in the United States, I'd cast doubt on the veracity of any figures pushed out by the federal government. As with war, information and truth are among the first casualties, and something of this scale all but rises to that enormity.
Imagine if you will, the whole of southern California locked down a la Wuhan if virus outbreaks of any quantity occurred there ... wow.
A final thought: this entire experience should remind the world of the perils of putting all of our eggs into one basket. We have, over that last 40 years, come to depend on China to manufacture and produce just about all of our consumables; our colleges and universities depend financially on Chinese students coming here; and the tourism industry all over the planet depends upon Chinese tourists to an excess and with their disposable income to stay afloat.
He who does not diversify and does not prudently spread his risk will ever moreso be an economic captive in the Chinese egg basket.
41
@Rocky
Since Trump is in Beverly Hills today and later going to Bakersfield CA - he must think there is no present threat in so Cal yet.
But I am still waiting for someone to tell us when (it is probably much earlier than Dec 1) that the first virus case happened.
and how long the virus can survive outside the human host ( say on an Amazon package).
I am sure some scientist has already stuck some virus droplets on a slide and kept it around for one day, two days etc... 24 days .... then looked at it under a microscope to see if it is still alive. CAN SOMEONE REPORT THEIR FINDINGS SO FAR PLEASE.
1
For a big country like China with such a huge population and in particular in densely populated cities, that's the only effective way to contain the super contagious virus. People there are frustrated with the spread of disease but they are happy to help contain it by staying at home. Through this outbreak, we see the very positive side of mankind. Many people from outside of Wuhan and outside of China volunteered to help whichever way they can. Humanity and love has no boundaries in terms of race and nationality.
2
Fortunately for those involved, they're quite used to government restrictions on their liberties.
5
There are two numbers that count -- how many have been infected and how many have died. We need to know how prevalent the disease is and the death rate. The flu is prevalent but not particularly deadly. Ebola is not as prevalent but is extremely deadly. How many are being restricted doesn't tell us what we need to know. Throwing around numbers like 700 million and 150 million exaggerate the problem. Knowing China's policies doesn't tell us nearly as much as knowing the prevalence and the deadliness of the disease.
14
@michjas re: " Throwing around numbers like 700 million and 150 million exaggerate the problem."
Well, one person's "exaggeration" is another person's "preparation." And like Louis Pasteur said: "In the fields of observation chance favours only the prepared mind."
Seemingly thrown-around numbers are efforts to place working limits on uncertainty. It's how science works: First consider what's *possible*, then do what can be done to refine that to what's *probable*, and then formulate and test specific hypotheses to (hopefully) find out what's *real*. And ALWAYS be prepared to be surprised.
5
Let's see more reporting on the virus, itself. How does it attack human cells? How is it transmitted most effectively, by air or by touch. How long are the virus particles viable once released? How is it similar to other coronaviruses; what differences have been detected? How much is known about an immune response to the virus as opposed to other RNA viruses. Being an RNA virus, it can be expected that the mutation rate of the virus is high--has this been detected?
There is amazing science about what is known about viruses, and just as amazing, what is not known about RNA viruses like HIV. More basic research would seem to be required, as well as expanding research done by companies like Gilead, that have had success with treatments of previously untreatable viruses. Explain in detail what science is known that might be relevant here.
19
As one born and raised in Wuhan, and I have many relatives and friends living there. They are scared and fearful about falling. The strict lockdown measures have imposed on them for weeks and caused massive inconvenience, but the absolute majority there believes these measures are necessary and complies with them. The people in Wuhan need our supports, instead of pointing fingers to them.
115
@Joe It's hard not to point fingers when CCP officials in Wuhan are preventing and frustrating the Taiwanese government's efforts from evacuating its own citizens from the area. CCP officials knowingly and intentionally smuggled an infected passenger onboard the last evacuation flight from Wuhan to Taiwan. Had Taiwanese health officials retested everyone onboard, that infected passenger could have been the match that ignited an uncontrollable outbreak in Taiwan.
3
@AF
Proof, please. And I intensely dislike the CCP.
If you have proof, we can throw it in their face.
1
Once the economic impact settles in, for the world’s second largest economy to be shut down for almost two months, with no indication when it will be up and running again, then we’ll all come to realize that we all have to get involved, to get the mess cleaned up. And hopefully China will get its health issues in better order.
8
One gets the uncomfortable impression that the earth, with a population approaching eight billion people, may simply have exceeded its carrying capacity, particularly in an era of cheap, frequent, massive international travel. The same conclusion might have been reached during the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic. But the earth is vastly more populous now.
36
@SJ Kane
Because a single species--any species, not just humans--crammed tightly together is an ideal target for predators. That's how the biosphere of our planet operates. If it is not a pathogen from "bush meat", it will be something else, a human based benign virus that mutates into a killer, for example.
Nature abhors monocultures, and does something about it. We ignore that at our peril.
12
So what does that have to do with China carelessly imperiling the world once again - with it’s ill-advised practice of mixing exotic animals (civets, bats, etc.) with domesticated species at live food markets in urban areas, creating once again the perfect conditions for the transmission of dangerous cross-over viruses from animals to humans? What did the Chinese government ‘not’ learn from the dangerous SARS outbreak less than two decades ago, thought to have emerged from the same lapse of sensible regulation, oversight and moral judgment? Did we really have to suffer through this again, really? I truly hope that the human and economic cost can soon be contained, and that reasonable people with the courage and foresight to do the right thing emerge in leadership positions as a result, for the good of humanity, putting an end to such dangerous practices once and for all.
25
Because he ended China's term limited collective leadership model and claimed the right to reign and rule until death, this coronavirus crisis is all and only Chinese President and Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping's governing political fault and responsibility.
Xi can't punch down and blame his underlings without appearing cowardly and weak.
By definition Xi has no governing political peers and must fall or stand alone.
Xi is akin to a Chinese Emperor who has lost The Mandate of Heaven. Xi is akin to Mao Zedong's cult of personality that unleashed the Cultural Revolution.
19
Will the Westerdam passengers currently reveling in Cambodia be allowed to board commercial flights? That should not happen. It is clear that Holland America was not truthful, okay lied, about testing and the Westerdam being virus-free. Cambodia was reckless to allow the passengers to disembark sans masks and roam freely about the country. No other country should allow quarantine-free entry to these passengers.
46
@Lynn in DC Obviously bribes were paid. Holland America wanted to unload financial risk.
The central figure here is the medical officer at HA. Where is the scrutiny of this n'er do well, pursuing apparently individual self interest?
6
Not commercial flights, sequestered cargo planes fitted for the special situation.
8
Pray for China ... we need them ... they need us ... we all need each other.
46
Yes, of course. Let’s pray for the Chinese people, all 50 minorities - not just the Han Chinese. Let us pray for the Uyghurs, in prison camps and their families. Let us pray for the Tibetan Buddhists, the good peoples of Hong Kong and Taiwan, the long-persecuted Falun Dafa Chinese, the brave Chinese journalists and human rights lawyers that are in Chinese prisons for speaking and writing the truth, the Christians that are denied their bibles and faith. Let’s pray for all Chinese. Let’s not forget to pray for the Chinese diaspora in our own communities that are facing isolation and discrimination because of caution and fear.
20
@Jeffrey I would but they shut down the churches. There can be no competition to the communist party, god included.
2
I am currently in China; Zhejiang Province, Wenzhou area, Yueqing city. All over the city, we are not allowed to leave our immediate neighborhood or apartment complexes. This has been going on for nearly 2 weeks (12 days). A week or so before that, it was suggested that we stay indoors and that one person in each household could leave 2x per week to buy essentials. Food can be bought online and delivered. So far, most items are available for purchase on most days. Yet, delivery times are inconsistent. We have been waiting for 3 days now for our food. Luckily, we stocked up a bit beforehand. Although, I am starting to get nervous. However, I fully understand that there are people in situations much worse than this. Regardless of my opinion of any government's actions or lack thereof, human beings are suffering here, on cruise ships, and in many countries.
131
@Joey Crossno Thank you for letting us know; hang in there.
24
@Joey Crossno I am sorry Mr. Crossno but elections have implications and the lack of elections even more so.
5
@Lonnie Very true.
4
Xi Jinping already suffered major setbacks in 2019, and his prospects for 2020 may even be worse – an annus horribilis.
Last year there were months-long protests in Hong Kong, world wide criticism against Beijing’s mass incarceration of ethnic minorities – particularly Muslim Uighurs – in the Xinjiang region, and an economic slowdown due to the trade war with the US.
While there was hope that the “phase-one deal” would bring a respite to the Chinese leadership, before entering a new phase and negotiating thorny issues like technology and intellectual property etc with the US, Xi has not had a good start to the new year. He and other leaders have been caught off guard by the ferocious spread of the Coronavirus, bringing the country to a standstill and hurting its economy.
Worst many in China don’t know what the rest of 2020 will hold for them.
8
Many of the questions people are asking could be answered at a press conference held by the administration, along with the CDC ,relevant agencies and cabinet members.
23
Question about what is being used to treat people or if they are just being put in rooms together to die. Little to nothing said about actual medicines given. An article stated Thai doctors had saved a patient with anti-HIV drugs lopinavir and ritonavir, in combination with flu drug oseltamivir tamiflu) in large doses. Then I noticed a mention in a comments section that said remdesivir, chloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir, seemed to have "inhibitory effects." But is any of this actually being tried on all these people described as sick and dying?
12
At this dangerous time, I am not feeling confident in the skills and prowess of the WHO, the CDC, & the State Dept. Seems there is far too much hemming & hawing, along with too much concern about China’s feelings and desires, too much concern about the economy, and too much concern about sowing panic. All these things are crucial and, yes, complex. But most of all, please keep this very dangerous & supremely contagious virus from spreading, that must take precedence over most other matters and must not be done hesitantly, and without proper funding (looking at you trump & co.). Can we please give this everything we’ve got? It is here, it will spread, it will kill. Let’s keep that difficult reality in the forefront of all decisions. Let’s tell people, repeatedly, to have two weeks of food & prescription medicine in their homes. Let’s get a team talking regularly to Americans, not a fool who tweets on occasion that everything is fine, someone more like Fauci, someone who knows what’s cooking and can give us updates on what can be done. We need reality, we need transparency, we need exemplary planning & precision, and trustworthy detailed updates. We need a strong, solid, & highly skilled team to lead us forward at this very difficult time. Not pablum, not trump, not confusion.
64
If the New York Times' analysis is taken at face value, 150 million people are under some form of curfew. That's about half our nation's population and 1/10th of the world's population.
The enormity of the scale is just mind boggling. I can't even imagine how keeping the population of New York City's of 8 million under any form of curfew would be possible...there'd be all sorts of lockdown-busting efforts every minute of the day.
65
@Confucius That's why I think it is worse than what is published. Not usually an alarmist but.....
10
@Confucius I feel that Chinese people have always been more group-minded than Americans. In America, no, even attempting to quarantine a building would cause riots and protests.
Also, I would think that the importance of following quarantine regulations is much more apparent when you're directly affected by the virus in some way. Chinese social media is cranking out reports from the front lines every second. The reality is, the vast vast majority of people commenting and judging here on NYT don't even know someone who knows someone who knows someone who knows someone that's been affected.
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
15
There is one big advantage and one big disadvantage to the coronavirus starting where it did.
The big advantage is that Communist China can wall off, "quarantine", half a billion people with its authoritarian rule.
The big disadvantage is that transparency and information dissemination is thwarted by an authoritarian government being more interested in saving face than saving lives.
31
Gradually we seem to understand this infection better. A few major issues remain unanswered.
1. Do asymptomatic individuals spread the infection?
2. What is the exact incubation period?
3. Why are there such high rates of infections in health care personnel? Is it lack of protective equipment? Highly transmissible like measles? High viral loads? Different modes of transmission?
4. Is one ethnic group more susceptible to severe infection in addition to underlying medical conditions?
20
@SridharC to answer your questions:
1. Yes, asymptomatic individuals can still be very effective in spreading the infection, which makes the virus extremely difficult to curb. This is how that British guy spread it to several french guys at a ski resort in France, and how the lady from Shanghai spread it to her colleagues on her business trip to Germany. There are many other cases, can't cite them all.
2. The incubation period varies from person to person. In most cases, the incubation lasts between 2~6 days, I believe the median is 3 days. But in some cases, it could go up to 2 weeks, which is why the quarantine period is now 14 days in most region. Yet, even more frightening, there's one reported case where it went up to 24 days. So it's impossible to give an exact incubation period.
3. The high rates of infections among healthcare workers are most likely due to lack of protective equipment. In Wuhan, or Hubei, during the first few weeks, many healthcare workers had next to no protective clothing at all. Things seem only to have improved slightly.
4. Judging from how it's spreading outside of China, this virus doesn't appear to recognize ethnicity. The reason for Chinese overrepresentation in this is simply: it started in Wuhan, a city that's predominantly Chinese.
79
@Emma thank you very much for your responses - I am assuming you are using data and experience that is available to you as you are closer to the outbreak
6
@SridharC
One needn't exhibit symptoms to spread an infection. "Typhoid Mary" is not a legend; she really existed.
1
Let's dispense with these obviously fake causalities why the virus spread. The cause is human behavior, and the presumption of those potentially exposed to "escaped" to avoid because they think they are not yet infected, or are trying to avoid getting infected. Millions left Wuhan before a quarantine could be put in place.
For those who are posting snide remarks. Think what might happen in the US if the thousands of individuals who are " considered not infected and return to the general public was later found to be silent carriers, like the British businessmen who infected at least 11 people in 3 countries in less than 3 days.
33
@Elizabeth
I believe people are thinking about what might happen in the US and the "snide remarks" stem from fear. The NIH and CDC should begin speaking to Americans about what is happening and what we should do to protect ourselves. We should not have to depend on "experts" in the news media for information during a health emergency.
8
Has anyone looked at the mortality rate for patients who are put on oxygen, versus those who are not? Reportedly people with underlying health issues are dying at higher rates. They are more likely to be put on oxygen. I wonder if oxygen might actually exacerbate the progression of the disease?
3
@Jim Meador this is a common issue in science: teasing apart causation (is death caused by oxygen?) and correlation (are more severe cases more likely to require oxygen support and more likely to result in death?)
In this case, oxygen is highly likely to be correlative rather than causative.
22
I don"t know, but I noticed in one of the articles I read they listed the "underlying conditions" that put people more at risk and one if them was the oxygen (something) rate -- can't remember the whole term.
1
People on oxygen are dying more because their lungs are not working well; they often proceed from oxygen to being intubated because their lungs are not working well enough to get oxygen from breathing.
5
Can someone explain the math behind the mortality figures? I’m reading that only about 18K people have recovered from COVID-19 and nearly 1900 have died. Doesn’t that mean that by the end of the infection’s lifecycle the mortality rate is roughly 10 percent?
4
@Julie
your statement of 18000 recovered cases does not fit the majority of reports. I don't find it in this article or previous updates.
I see about 100,000 cases reported (including those diagnosed by clinical signs, not lab test). So, 1900 deaths is about 1.9% mortality. Everyone else survives. That's 98.1 % survival. That's within measurement error of the 2.3% reported.
6
Any figures from any complex organisation, let alone a government are prone to error. In the NYT alone, we've seen reports of people dying and not being counted due to admin logjams. At the same time there have been wholesale redefinitions of the condition itself.
6
You are ignoring the rather significant lag between diagnosis and death, which may be up to three weeks. Looking at the ratio of confirmed deaths to confirmed recoveries is a better method, in so far as it compares patient outcomes at a roughly equivalent time.
However, there are almost certainly a large number of mild cases that were never diagnosed, as well as a number of deaths that were not diagnosed, so getting very accurate figures will be difficult.
25
Any info regarding North Korea and coronavirus?
4
@Rennae
Reports elsewhere (overseas) indicate that it is a serious problem but the government will not be admitting anything.
Given a relatively porous border and the bad health of most North Koreans, a real disaster could happen there.
8
@Rennae
The NYT has reported on this:
"U.S. Supports Aid to North Korea for Fighting the Coronavirus
The North has reported no cases of the virus, but relief groups say it is woefully unprepared to deal with an outbreak."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/world/asia/coronavirus-north-korea-sanctions.html
3
That Novel Corona is roughly 20x deadlier than seasonal flu, is not 'new analysis'. It was just newly added to the CDC website. To even call it 'analysis' overstates the case. It is division, the kind you learned in elementary school. For NYT readers who bothered to divide the number of fatalities by the number of cases, which have been printed every day in the NYT, it has been clear for weeks that the fatality rate is over 2%, which is indeed, ~20x more fatal seasonal flu.
Most reporting has consistently underestimated the risk of corona virus, often by comparing it to flu, which we treat casually.
91
@Matthew S 100% accurate. There is nothing new in the CFR based on laboratory confirmed cases. However, no one seems to know the true infection rate. So, simply put, we have no idea. Could be as high as the laboratory confirmed cases indicate. Could be no worse than the flu. We just won’t know until we know the true infection rate across the population. I continue to see nothing about that. Even RO estimates should give guidance on potential infection rate, but where are those estimates?
6
@Matthew S I just ran some numbers from the CDC site, if Corona virus is 2% deadlier than the flu, it appears to be 200X not 20x.
Just thought would bring this out, because 20X is not that much considering the you don't hear about people dying of the seasonal flue that often, so had to look it up.
Disease Burden of Influenza from CDC site.
45 million illnesses
61,000 deaths annually since 2010
3
@ Matthew S
I can divide and understand math very well. I also understand data and the need for accuracy.
The data is currently very rough - the number of people who’ve had the virus, the denominator, is likely under reported, underestimated. If it is higher, the ratio, or percentage. of deaths could be lower. Likewise, the count of deaths could be revised and affect the ratio.
We simply do not know enough yet. Current reports are simply estimates, to be adjusted as experts learn more.
2
How can the cruise ship even think of considering their quarantine effective if it has spread to over 500 passengers?
All the passengers should be put under government quarantines without recirculated air where the people are kept in solitary confinement.
I understand the frustration of the passengers on board in this scenario, but this is more important than your frustration.
67
People need eye coverings as well as masks.
40
Ideally, yes. This is why medical waiting rooms ask patients who are coughing to wear them. To protect others in the room. But they are still better than nothing, even without protective eye wear. It is also hard for some people, like me, to not periodically touch their face. Another potential pathway. I carry a small bottle of hand sanitizer and use it religiously when I am in a public place.
14
“.... a hospital at the heart of the outbreak ...”
Thank you for not saying “epicenter” as, seemingly every other journalist seems to do. Journalists should only use words of which they know the definition.
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Wearing masks is probably little help.
The mesh is too coarse to prevent the passing of tiny viruses.
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It does help with dispersed droplets, which are of higher concentration and more likely to spread infection than one single microcell. Dose matters. That’s why doctors and nurses wear them in surgical settings. They are not failsafe, but they are helpful, especially with additional sensible measures. If someone wants to wear them, they should not be discourage from doing so.
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A new virus is mentioned. Is COVID-19 the new virus or is COVID-19 the flu and there is a new virus in addition to that one?
The flu is completely different from the coronavirus. COVID-19 refers to the new coronavirus.
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@Joanne A Sinclair the term "coronavirus" refers to a family of viruses. This family of viruses has caused other novel strains like SARS, MERS, and a form of the common cold. COVID-19 is the current name for the virus causing this specific outbreak that started at the end of last year. I'd imagine that at some point it'll get a better name.
Influenza is a different family of viruses.
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Covid-19 is a virus! “The flu” is a disease(s). There are several different viruses which manifest themselves as “the flu” . Other viruses manifest themselves as their diseases.
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The Americans on the Diamond Princess should have been evaluated 10 days earlier. The Americans in Wuhan should have been evacuated earlier than they were.
The delay led to more cases of COVID-19 among the group, and cases being brought into the U.S.
I hope those folks will be OK and that all those Americans in quarantine are in comfortable conditions.
But, the State Department and CDC need to learn some lessons from this and act faster in the future. For Americans who travel abroad, this situation raises serious concerns about whether our government has our backs.
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@Adrienne They are lucky they were allowed to come back at all, and no, the United States is under no obligations to bring back people from countries where a serious contagious pathogen is raging. The needs of the many out weigh the needs of the few. If i was President i would have left them where they were. Lets hope this was not a fateful mistake. I pray not for them, but the medical professionals who are now in danger.
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@Adrienne
Maybe they would act faster were it not for the current occupant of the White House!
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Good job China!
Stay strong and keep up the fight!
As far as everyone else, please get your act together. We won’t have many chances to fumble without consequence. Some of the stuff going on is crazy, especially that cruise ship debacle.
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@Pigsy
I agree. The passengers in the cruise ship are physically quarantine in the cabin, but many shared the re-circulated air. It is not only after more than 10 percent of the passengers are infected before they are evacuated.
Over two hundreds of Americans boarded the same flight to come home with several people tested positive for Covid-19. They are told the people with the positive test will be in an isolated quarter. I hope the official is right.
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@Pigsy
Let's not over react. The flu alone this season has killed 14,000 Americans.
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Apple said it is “fundamentally strong, and this disruption to our business is only temporary.”
I doubt we’ll hearing about the virus come warmer weather in May.
I hope I’m right.
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@Paul King
Singapore has 90 F highs with overnight lows of 80 F, and the COVID-19 is spreading there from person to person, not just the persons that brought it from China.
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This is evidence that the US needs to keep some production facilities in the US for critical items.
Many generic drugs are made in China, if there were a long term shut down of these facilities, people in the US would be in big trouble.
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@pat this also applies to critical material for our infrastructure and other vital needs. we have out sourced too many things.
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@pat No kidding! I'm afraid it's too late for that now.
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@pat
Oh no don't tell me we are importing drugs from China. Are they safe? Big Pharma here tells us that only US drugs we have to buy from them are safe and we Americans should not buy foreign medications.
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My concern is that the president is controlling the release of information from the CDC on the test results of those Americans and diplomatic staff and families whom first departed Wuhan and China. Given the number of tourists, students and business people traveling back and forth to and from China we should have more than 15 cases in the US. If the first case in Seattle is any indication of reality.
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Using only confirmed cases of coronavirus to calculate fatality will solidly overestimate its fatality rate. Under lock down and facing incredible congestion at hospitals, many with mild illness will simply stay home and recover without ever being diagnosed. A fatality rate using only lab diagnosed cases is irresponsible at best and liable to encourage panic at worst.
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@Chrissy Although there is simply no alternative method of counting. After all, the Chinese CDC did go door to door to identify the mild cases and even then it’s possible to miss the truly mild cases.
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@Zhanwen Chen no, there is an entire branch of epidemiology called “pandemic research” that begs to differ. Pandemic researchers put the fatality rate around 1%.
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@Chrissy agreed. It was infuriating to see to see the NYT headline this like it’s new information. The case fatality rate for lab confirmed infections has been holding steady at 2-3% since the beginning. Will someone please give us even an estimate of the the potential true infection rate? Why this isn’t being reported on at all is baffling.
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China is doing the best they can to stop Coronavirus.
The Coronavirus setback on global production chain disruption is more significant than we thought. It is not just us, but worldwide companies who depend on China for parts and final products. In addition, Chinese tourists' globally buying spree will be stopped. Both European luxury brands and us knocked down our annual growth estimates. We certainly underestimated the influence of China. It is now an important member of the global family. When China suffers, every one feels the pain.
Based on the current numbers from Chinese government, China seems to have taken the virus under control. No further unexpected rise or spreading occurs. Production is also coming back gradually. It is certainly a good sign. In a way, our stock markets based on the performance have more faith in China than every day Joe in us.
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@Usok China's also doing their best to clamp down on any criticism regarding their handling of this pandemic. No different than Soviet Union's early reaction to Chernobyl.
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@M. Paire
And where are the criticism for Japan and the US’ handling of the 2 cruise ships?
Clearly COVID19 is much more difficult to detect and quarantine than previously thought so what’s this talk about China mishandled the pandemic?
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@AmateurHistorian 1. There are criticisms of them, but no kidnapping of bloggers or censorship. 2. Naturally the criticism goes to the early stages and source of the virus. It did not start at the cruise, it started in Wuhan, but your comparison is rhetorical so I won't waste by breath there. 3. It is more difficult to detect and quarantine, definitely more difficult than detecting government criticism. I guarantee more money is spent on cyber army trolls trying to silence people than to save them.
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Will China need to receive proceeds from their investments in US and other countries bills, notes and bonds when they mature rather than rolling them over due to softening of their economy?
Possible propping up of the Yuan and borrowing outside funds could hurt China's growth and eliminate jobs and businesses for a while.
Could the Coronavirus be a harbinger of a world economic readjustment?
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I’m not so sure. China’s government has made them self reliant. China stated last year that the next year would be harder but that they would still have everything they need. Whether true, right or not, China won’t lose face.
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Thinking of Professor Paulos's opinion column today, it's important to remember that influenza mortality is mitigated both by widespread seasonal vaccination, and by the use of Tamiflu in early infection.
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@LRR
Right. Even though it drifts from year to year and hemisphere to hemisphere, it's a known public health problem.
That's why the coronavirus is newsworthy. It's novel. SARS seems to be a concern these days. We can only hope that this virus is not a concern in the future, changing year after year chasing the flu season round the globe.
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