I think this horrible situation tells us we needs to parse out some of the supply chain products and processes to other countries if possible. We have been too dependent on China. While this may not be immediately possible, it should be a serious consideration going forward.
3
Businesses are hoping for a quick "V" shaped recovery curve. It will depend on how badly China is lying about how serious the virus is and how effective their efforts at containing it have been. The fact that President Xi has felt compelled to publicly take control of the response is not a good sign. It could indicate we are in for a long siege.
This will in turn effect the US economy as we have, perhaps unwisely, tied much of our manufacturing to Chines suppliers. As those parts dry up it will take an increasing bite out of our economy. This could be bad news for Trump. His ace in the hole is a booming US economy, if that evaporates away, then more people will focus on his behavior, he could then be in trouble.
Going forward this will become a reminder, yet again, why having a diversified supply chain is a good idea for both businesses and countries.
4
COVID-19 came out of the Wuhan market infecting everyone in its path, it started to cross the planet. Then no one knew what kind of killer it was. This happen in China and Xi was able to lock-down the country. Other countries shut their doors for protection. Hong Kong had to keep its door partially open. The Chinese people will come out of this crisis as both the victims and the heroes. Yet, if something isn’t done to regulate wet markets this will happen again and again. Because the international community demand it and the fact that the US had a legal frame that can address negligence, the Max 737 was grounded world-wide. This grounding and threat of legal recourse has prevented another air crash. China needs to have the right leadership and a legal system that can minimize the health hazards in China.
2
Its too soon. Once people start coming in contact with each other in large numbers the infection rate will go through the roof. They should have waited another 3 weeks to make sure the virus is under control before allowing anyone to mingle in groups. much less return to work.
I understand the economic losses are running into tens of billions a day, but a true pandemic could solve China's population issues for a good long time.
2
People are still dying in large numbers an now it’s in 29 countries, how can they open for business. Or, if they open, everyone should run away. All flights and tourist visas should be cancelled by all,countries.
@Ted But they are not. Japan Airlines will get those in China to the states. That's a huge risk to our country!
Why must ALL news reports from China, or even related to China be negative, regardless of topic?
And that includes ignoring, under-reporting or not even reporting the undeniably positive.
Makes you wonder.
This is a wake up call to our on demand, just in time, one day, second day delivery world. China's efforts at controlling the epidemic and restarting its commerce are an object lesson. The possibility that COV-19 will establish itself in other parts of the world and disrupt important supply chains is still out there. Further quarantines and national mobilizations could erupt in other under prepared countries. There will be future events of this nature or worse. People are quick to react to imminent threats like COV-19. Meanwhile the ever increasing worldwide threat of climate change still lingers on the back burner. It doesn't have an incubation time of 14 days. It seems we'll wait too long before we take serious action. Procrastination, an art form humans have perfected.
3
@richard wiesner I've read the incubation period of the Covid 19 is up to 24 days. Yet the "self-quarantine" mandate in the USA is for 14 days. Doesn't make sense.
In shanghai, one of the parameters to gauge level of disruption to normal life is metro traffic
"However, that was still an 82 percent drop compared with the same day last year when 2.75 million people had used the Metro by 9am."
A 82% drop in Metro passenger traffic.
5
There are a whole host of issues/problems that disrupt the best laid plans of nations. They key to the future survival of our species is both our ability to adjust to these disruptions, which will demand both large amounts of expertise and large amounts of collaboration. What is worrisome is in our current populist moment, both qualities---intelligence and cooperation---are being trashed on a daily basis. Instead of a global leadership developing the kinds of intellectual environments and diplomatic tools that could combat such global threats as rising oceans, pandemics, nuclear proliferation, terrorism of all sorts, they pursue policies and plans that disparage expertise of any kind and go out of their way to offend other nations. My hope is that this populist joyride ends soon, before we run our national/global car into a tree.
21
@Amanda Jones
On the other hand popular movements in North Africa and Central Asia have energized the international community to go democratic. Authoritarian leaders go for wealth and power; popular movements go for the people. In order to have justice and a human response to crisis we need state, regional organizations, and the UN to share human rights and be ready to enforce them.
It looks to me that coronavirus will spread worldwide and will be one of the major pandemics in recorded history. It's too infectious, with large incubation period, to be contained. The horse is already out of the barn. What is uncertain, is the mortality rate.
4
As experts and comments here have said, this will not turn out well.
Chinese medicine and public health are not as sophisticated as in the West. My gosh, a big component in epidemiology is communication and organization which is repressed over there. Also, there is a conflict in values between public health and factory production.
A virus is an obligate intracellular parasite. It needs a host. And there are millions upon millions of potential hosts in close proximity of each other in China. People in China are both a vector of transmission and a reservoir of contagion, to use terms of science.
Given the nature of their government and society, Chinese leaders regard workers as fungible. This norm will make the epidemic grow much larger.
The Coronavirus will cause an interruption in the flow of goods and money. There will be dislocation in the world economy. I don't see how a recession can be avoided.
4
We are trying thru tariffs to slow China. We are trying to slow China by controlling their technology. We are threatened by their rising military status. The list goes on. I want to know why we have not heard a conspiracy theory that the virus is a US biological warfare plot to accomplish the aforementioned objectives. We have the capabilities, the motive is there, and it is working.
5
@rich williams
A great book, could be a best seller in China, but lack of copyright protection will leave you in the same place.
7
@rich williams The complete lack of any evidence. I know, I know, how quaint of me to want evidence.
There is, in fact, a high level virus lab in Wuhan. The possibility of an accidental release from that facility should certainly be considered. Accidents will happen.
The folks at this lab know what they've been working on. If they suspected an accidental release what would they do?
5
@rich williams
Probably the work of dotard to destroy communism. If successful Donald trump will be the greatest president on earth. Probably worthwhile as the founding father.
1
If a few thousand people die from a flu virus and bring an entire country to its knees, what will happen when a truly virulent disease spreads through the world?
Is the U.S. or any country experimenting in germ warfare?
4
Forgive me for being skeptical but, given China's inhumane treatment of people in general, I do not believe China cares about keeping individual people safe.
The balance they feel the need to strike more likely has to do with concerns that if too many people die, their industries and economy will suffer.
18
@American Abroad Give me a break with China's inhumane treatment. The US treats non-white people as subhuman. Migrant camps full of children, etc.
2
@Milly Durovic
Please do not normalize the US mistreatments with China's! Yes, migrant are certainly being mistreated in the U.S. but it pales compared to what China does for example in their concentration death camps for millions of Uighurs and other Muslim minorities, as just one example.
Plus, unlike the U.S., there is no chance in China to protest this or their many many other atrocities without facing death yourself!
2
Until this Wuhan coronavirus dies out, I will continue to boycott China’s products, local Chinese businesses including local mahjong games, hot pot restaurants, grocery stores, etc. Too many unknowns. No transparency from Beijing. China refused help from CDC experts. Why?
Sequester until this pandemic ends, hopefully in September (after a hot summer).
10
The CCP went overboard with their response, proclaiming a “people’s war” against the virus less than two weeks ago and allowing local communities to police themselves to stop the virus. Of course these local communities, paralyzed by fear, have instituted draconian measures that have basically made the entire country under quarantine.
How can you tell people one week that the virus is so dangerous that you need to stay in your apartment and can only leave once every two days and then the next week say “back to work”?
It’s gonna take a week or two of sustained propaganda efforts to get people back to work. One thing the CCP is good at is propaganda campaigns. I’m interested to see what they pull out of their hat this time.
21
@Shawn
In the end, the "people's war" against the virus will kill more Chinese people than the virus itself. Twas ever thus in countries ruled by totalitarian regimes, particularly those ruled by the Communist Party.
1
@Shawn A LOT of people are also not getting paid sitting at home. A missed paycheck is much more effective in convincing people to get back to work than a weeks worth of propaganda.
7
@ben But all the local enforcers are getting paid to enforce. And they probably won't want to give up their chance to boss people around.
4
What will be the side effect of this possible recession and slow economy? How does that affect our future and climate change? Remote work and meetings, less travel, accelerated online education, online shopping, robot delivery... might push the tech frontier of our future life, while encouraging more local production and sourcing and living with a fewer things. This year may mark the year of global change as a result of halting over production and over consumption.
1
It seems rather telling that even in the midst of an international crisis, the world is still more concerned with how this affects their bottom line and not that this will undoubtably further propagate this infection. The international community’s treatment of China, especially in the face of atrocities such as their nazi style treatment of Muslims and murder of activists, is akin to what they expect of their own citizens: shut up or you’ll have problems. How long must we watch the Chinese government lie, steal, and murder before our governments can look past their economy and address the global threats they pose.
5
For quite some time now, “just in time” ordering of parts has been the way for businesses to save money.
But that money-saving strategy is going to lead to huge bottlenecks in manufacturing.
Picture it: one type of screw or nut or strange part could hold up the manufacturing of just about anything.
And those who supply those parts are also using “just in time” strategies for metals or plastics etc.
I’m picturing a nightmare where orders are sitting for months infilled. Not just orders for the finished product, which still would need to be shipped, quite possibly across the ocean. But for all the zillions of parts needed to make those final products.
Because of hospitalizations and deaths, there will also be empty positions in factories, which add to the bottlenecks that will inevitably occur.
Whatever you might be needing, better to get it now. Because there’s NO telling how long things will take to get back up and running.
Even car repairs may become a nightmare. Truck repairs. All of this could slow down transportation, even when something is available.
We are headed for uncharted territory.
3
@TheraP Will this mark the return of the regional warehouse?
@Roberta Laking tough to turn back the clock. once the virus is over, all will be forgotten. anyone who creates stocks of supplies will lose out to those who return to JIT etc.
Save the date, March 5, Beijing - National People’s Congress, 2,900 delegates from all of China (except Taiwan province). Featuring Li Keqiang and Xi Jingping. Hazmat gear will be provided with Party ID card. No substitutes. RSVP. Attendance is required. No excuses.
4
Business for China may have slowed and on the back burner but its prioritizing Corona is the right thing to do. Health is wealth and when that is under a deadly threat, national security is under threat and everything else becomes a low priority. Now that the sleeping giant is awakened by this nano sized virus, the economic giant has to focus on eradication of COVID-19 already a much bigger threat than the earlier SARS corona virus.
China has certainly given a stimulus of over 10 billion dollars to take control of the containment of the virus and before all is said and done that amount could be 30 billion dollars. Hospitals are coming up in China at the rate of 1 every 10 days and certain sectors of Chinese economy will receive a boost. A silver lining of this epidemic is that so far the mortality rate stands at 2% and while seniors are the worst hit and Dr Li Wenliang was martyred, 98% of those infected will survive for better days after optimal medical support. I can also say that within 6 months the highly contagious sturdy virus will be history and we will be talking about this crowned nano monster that once stepped on our planet on the most populated country in the world by the continuing evolution of species that occurs side by side with climate change. Whether our fellow human beings cause the emergence of monster viruses by consuming exotic wild animals or polluting our environment, evolution and climate change will continue its march if we ourselves fail to change.
3
The incubation period of the virus itself is uncertain. People who test negative, few weeks later test positive.
"Henan province in central China has reported two coronavirus cases that took much longer to confirm than the previously estimated incubation period of up to 14 days. Incubation is the time between exposure to the virus and beginning to show symptoms.
The government of Xinxian county, in the city of Xinyang, on Sunday reported that one of its new cases had been confirmed 34 days after the patient returned from a mid-January visit to Wuhan. He had been sent to hospital with suspected symptoms on January 28, but twice tested negative before testing positive on February 16. A further two people who attended family gatherings with the man in Xinxian were reported as infected, while three were suspected cases or under hospital quarantine."
The China Communist Party’s National People’s Congress is held everyday year on 5 March. Delegates come from every corner of China.
WATCH if that event is postponed. If it is, that’s a gigantic red flag for all of us.
6
I just read that the Macau casinos are allowed to re-open this Friday. They have been closed since 2/5/20. Their loss has been 3.3 billion. Proceed at your own risk.
2
What will be done to prevent a coronavirus outbreak, or a reported coronavirus outbreak at the Democratic and Republican conventions?
Welcome to bioterror world. And it doesn't have to be true to cause hysteria and pandemonium.
I hope there is someone in the Trump administration who can come up with a coherent plan to deal with the Coronavirus. It’s frightening to think that Jared Kushner may be given the the task of trying to deal with something as volatile and potentially super serious as this virus.
4
Well our own administration is not to be trusted. What year is it? Why are those people on cruise boats with no strategy?
So there is so much blame an stress and incompetence. Wishing sick people away is not a strategy keeping them in staterooms didn’t work
Trump better start thinking and those ridiculous statements make no sense when you are in a dangerous scenario and the president doesn’t understand basic science
2
Stop eating dogs, cats, bats and rats!
4
I can’t help but be impressed by the amount of resources that China is expending on this, nor its desire to actually help its citizens.
Considering that during the Mad Cow epidemic the CDC demanded other nations engage in wholesale destruction of cattle precisely until the first cases of bovine spongiform appeared in American beef, and then basically shrugged its shoulders and said “oh well... who cares if people eat tainted bee and die. We must protect Big Steak profits at all costs” I would imagine a similar US reaction. That is, absolutely nothing.
1
Xi was riding high with Belt and Road and his illegal man-made islands. But if this gets known as "Xi Disease", he will have some REAL problems.
Just imagine if President Obama had brought a plague to us.
3
Forgive me if this question is ignorant ( it’s driven by my germaphobia), but could the parts being shipped from China be contaminated?
5
@Stephanie Lauren It’s a good question, and no one really knows as far as I’ve been able to ascertain. Some viruses, such as norovirus, can persist on surfaces for several months. With norovirus, only 10 viral particles are needed to become infected. Other viruses, like HIV, are destroyed very quickly in the environment.
5
Can someone please cough on Trumpy?
4
Despite some stupid moves by CCP apparatchiks at the beginning of this epidemic the Chinese government seems to be doing a fairly decent job of trying to control the virus spread. But governments in the rest of the world should not get too cocky about how they are preventing the spread of the virus to their populations. This virus has not yet been contained and it could already be spreading in places where adequate public health services do not exist. And please Donald J. Trump no more Tweets about how the virus "will die in April when it gets warmer". Only sophomoric fools send out Tweets about things they know nothing about.
4
Reality Check connect dots globel warming this was beginning ,
2
Why did we allow the neo-liberal Democrats to outsource U.S. production to China in the 1990s?
1
@JDK Follow the money. (It aint the Dems)
Comrade Trotsky was brilliant in his planning and execution of the victorious battle against the Czarists. He . . . er . . . uh . . . I meant to say, Comrade Stalin! Yes! Of course! Comrade Stalin was brilliant in his planning and execution of the victorious battle against the Czarists! Comrade Stalin is, of course, a genius and he knows all. His leadership is our glory! We wait in breathless anticipation of his resolution of all of our country’s problems!
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
2
Keith, please define or explain your use of this word, knock-on , in "knock-on effect of....". Do you mean slight, or tap?
It is fascinating to see that Kalitta Air, a charter firm in the Detroit area with military and other contracts, owned by Connie Kalitta, has been hired (a picture on the front page) to bring US citizens back into the country, in a converted high-capacity freight conversion B747 with no medical equipment or controls, and landing at an Air Force base in Texas. Why would the US DoD (and State) bring almost certainly infected individuals back into the country, on a special contract charter flight, rather than quarantine them outside at dozens of optional non-continental locations? They aren't using their own military aircraft either (they have literally over 500 hundred capable aircraft available, sitting on the ground, all over the world). This has all the hallmarks of active virus management, not preventative virus quarantine. This may remind readers of the private charter flights between West Africa and the US with ebola infected patients, carefully protected in order to capture the virus genome. This may sound too imaginative. Unfortunately it is too real.
3
Uh, I realize that this sort of science fiction is fun. Unfortunately Chinese scientists sequenced this coronavirus and published its genome several weeks ago.
6
At some point we, Homo Sapiens, will have to acknowledge that virus mutations will slow more than "growth in China".
Mother Nature (Natural Selection) has been with us from the beginning of time, and the current Norovirus is simply a way of culling the excess at this point in time. There is nothing we can do, even with genetic engineering, to stop a virus, once unleashed. Eventually, Homo Sapien will kill it's own but in the interim pathogens will continue to do what they do best.
2
Many virologists are saying the next two to three weeks are key to see if this thing stays confined to central China, or becomes a full-blown pandemic. Time is short.
6
@Nick Trump's Administration is our defense here in America; Be Afraid
3
A critical issue is the source of this and other viral mutations that have appeared first in china. The vast number of urban small farms on which pigs, ducks, poultry and humans live is close proximity. The situation was improving as modern American agriculture provided pork and other meats, rapidly reducing Chinese dependence on small-farm agriculture. The Trump trade war cut a billion poeple off from thier supply of pork, prices skyrocketed, and Chinese small farmers doubled thier production, again producing the unsanitary crowding of animals and humans that is a hotbed of viral mutation. So yes, the trade war was a major cause of the epidemic.
12
@Dan Woodard MD Thank you for your enlightening clarification on the tariffs/trade war. If only Trump understood this and acted accordingly.
Happy to note that the Government of China has urged its people to give up non-veg because scientists believe that eating slaughtered animals’ flesh may be the cause of the disease. The virus is believed to have spread from animals to humans.
One research from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that more than 75% of emerging diseases originate in animals. Experts believe that the dangerous virus might have originated in a market in Wuhan, China, where humans have direct contact with live animals and animal flesh. So far, many dangerous viruses have originated in animals such as the new coronavirus, SARS, bird flu etc.
In this context it will be very interesting to note that in India Brahmins may occasionally eat certain types of meat, but generally they eat a whole foods plant-based diet consisting of fruits, vegetables, beans, grains, and other plant foods. Generally they believe eating meat—involving killing an innocent animal—develops bad karma and has harmful consequences.
According to The Sivananda Companion to Meditation, food choice is extremely important for those pursuing a spiritual path in life:
5
@N.G Krishnan
People in Louisiana contract leprosy occasionally by butchering armadillos and cutting their hands or having a cut already and getting infected. Since they don't have regular health care they often find out when their infection is in the late stages of the disease, too late to treat properly.
It's thought that HIV was contacted this way by a hunter butchering a monkey infected with SIV and then spreading it to others through sexual contact in Africa.
These diseases could be stopped by removing the bush meat industry and live animals for butchering trade for the most part.
Of course eating a grain-vege diet has other benefits as well but the live meat trade is a Chinese tradition. It won't be easy to change and driving it underground won't help either.
3
Manufacturing in the US will be disrupted in the short term, as even companies with relatively little China sourced components are experiencing gaps farther up supply chains. Japan, Germany and other export driven economies will be hit harder by a global slowdown.
Global air travel and tourism will be affected more dramatically this year, especially cruises.
Falling global demand will impact oil prices negatively, leading to lower oil prices, more fracking bankruptcies and loss of employment in oilfield related businesses, as significant new supply comes on line in 2020.
Eventually the epidemic will burn itself out on China, as 98% of those exposed will survive with immunity to this strain. With a million Chinese people now living and working in Africa and few constraints on flights from and to China, it is not hard to imagine a second China sized epidemic there, with fewer fatalities because of a younger population.
Trump's "deal" to create $200 billion in exports to China will be largely put on hold this year.
Sectors of the stock market could experience another earnings recession, as in 2015-16, when oil prices fell.
If Trump has taken credit for the economy in the past, in spite of his destructive trade policies, he certainly owns whatever happens this year. His supporters will continue to chant "just wait till next year" to troubled agricultural, fossil energy and manufacturing dependent communities.
8
@Look Ahead Interesting observations... with any luck there will be so much discontent with Trump and his failed promises they'll vote him out in November. What would it take to get them to vote in their own interests?
8
Remember how the U.S. and E.U. credit system locked up during the 2008-2009 financial crises and banks and financial companies were afraid to lend to each other? So now it's not the fear of big companies making a bad financial transaction but the fear of nearly every Chinese citizen of sickness and death. To go from barricaded villages and apartment complexes, police threatening arrest for not wearing a mask, and general distrust of pretty much any outsider to everything is fine let's all go back to work is not going to happen till a shift in perception happens. And with human nature the way it is that can take a long time.
1
Without trying to sound cynical, but imagine if the EU and Trump had been friends now when China is weak. I know, it is a terrible thing to say, but one thing that the Coronavirus has illuminated, apart from the fact that there will always be a new unknown that hits humanity, is how entangled the world economy is. Not long ago there were cries about China's dominance and now many countries, and companies, are praying for China to open for business again.
To loop back to the top of my comment: A united EU and US would always be more able to adjust the balance of power together when working together and it is situations like this, when there are disturbances in the "business as usual", that most changes are being made.
4
Confirmed cases of Covid-19 have been reported from almost every major region in the world. Every region except Sub saharan Africa. This is in spite of the fact that this region has several major Chinese projects which are part of the one belt one road program, with large numbers of Chinese workers, and significant Chinese expat populations.
Either this entire region has miraculously escaped unscathed, or the healthcare system there is unable to detect and isolate cases. This would mean that this infection is currently spreading widely in that region and we will see a surge in deaths from respiratory illness there in the next couple of months or so.
China and other countries with a good healthcare system may be able to contain this virus. It is Africa I am worried about.
5
@A Cynic
I'm pretty sure this virus won't be contained anywhere.
Right now China has shutdown a province with a population of 68 million people to slow the spread. That's not sustainable but may give other regions a bit more time to prepare for the inevitable.
The more we can flatten the spike the better, but in the long term this virus is going to hit every country.
12
@A Cynic I'm in Egypt, they found one case here the other day, Chinese traveler transiting through the airport, tested positive. However, there are thousands of Chinese contractors working in Egypt at the moment, and a million across Africa. No doubt, the virus will travel.
Also today, China put in an order for 200 million surgical face masks from Egyptian pharmaceutical factories. That's a lot of masks!
3
Reality check supply chain could be contaminated allready of imports from china .Still dont have clue how this thing transfer in china but safe to say i wont be shopping for while till they do people need to stock up be prepared now in case its supply chain becomes contaminated. Doubt little usa is doing much to check imports coming into usa from china.
2
I spent 5 years working in a Chinese supply chain. Trust me. This is business as usual. We're at most a week behind schedule right now.
As a rule, we operated with an 8 week lead time for anything ordered from China. 6 weeks delivery minimum plus 2 weeks safety stock. Everything was late anyway. However, for Chinese New Years, we bumped the lead time to 16-18 weeks depending on the year and those orders were placed well in advance of the holiday. That's how business in China works.
In other words, we haven't actually seen the economic impact of the virus yet. Everything is speculation.
Will workers return to work with their usual tardy fashion? Travel delays are a perennial excuse for late 1st quarter deliveries. I'm sure we'll hear the excuse in 2020 with the word "virus" added to the same rambling explanation. Would you please pay for expedited shipping? That's where this story goes.
The question is when does a highly contagious, pneumonia-like virus start really interrupting manufacturing lines. The obvious answer: When employees start getting sick. Transportation isn't the issue. The problem is highly labor reliant industries. If the workforce gets sick, there's nothing China can do to replace them. More people only equals more illness.
I guess the US will begin feeling serious repercussions around July. The disease will peter off in Summer hopefully but the damage to supply chains will happen months earlier. We haven't seen the worst yet.
11
@Andy Not sure why you believe will peter off so quickly.
A good lesson for Chinese authorities to learn from this medical disaster is the importance of upgrading hygienic standards and medical treatment standards in the country. Unfortunately the likely takeaway will be that China needs to increase the pace towards making factories and other manufacturing facilities fully automated so that they can continue to operate even when humans aren’t available.
3
I suppose there is no identifiable connection between climate change and the coronavirus but the upheaval that this is causing will be nothing compared to the new health problems that will be unleashed as things warm. it's "too expensive" to fight climate change now..... and the bill we will pay for delaying is going up.
6
Climate change is an issue. But this post is long on speculation and short on supporting evidence.
I suppose there is no identifiable connection between climate change and the coronavirus but the upheaval that this is causing will be nothing compared to the new health problems that will be unleashed as things warm. it's "too expensive" to fight climate change now..... and the bill we will pay for delaying is going up.
3
Years of asking the next guy up the Chinese authority ladder what to do next [about anything and everything] has drained dry the initiative of Chinese citizens and local authorities. In the current economic calamity, everyone is scared stiff at the local level, and decisions like these can't be made by party authorities who are uninformed about local supply and demand issues. Xi has likely permanently weakened his government's monolithic control over China.
2
All the signs are in place for a global economic downturn triggered by the Coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile the Stock Market is near record highs. It’s time to sell the Market short.
The crash may not happen this month, but it will come soon.
Such a crash will have major political implications. The high Stock Market seems to be Trump’s primary indicator of economic success.
16
It won't be contained, and it largely isn't as bad as some people suggest. They don't really know how many cases there have been and they don't know what the fatality rate is. If you look at reported deaths and cases one might think the death rate is as high as 2%. However they reported that 1700 healthcare workers have contracted the virus ( a number that is likely to be accurate since they are the ones who administer the test) and there have been 6 deaths among this group. That means a death rate of 0.35% which is far below 2% but somewhat higher than a normal influenza which has a death rate of about 0.1%.
I don't know who these folks think they are fooling. They have no way to stop it. It's too easily spread and they are not going to shut down their economy to prevent deaths in people. The only thing they care about is the economic costs. Just like in the US, the fear is economic, not that people will die.
6
@Chris
Comparing death rates to the rate of those who have fully recovered it could be as high as 20% fatality rate. No one can say with any certainty because no one knows how many have the virus but not diagnosed. They don't even know how many have died.
6
@Chris your observation on the 1700 HealthCare Workers makes sense. But, it is too late to call the threat off. We may wait until they are declared revovered cases. There are many aspects related to the guessing on fatlity rates. So, yes, there is no reason to panic. But, no, there is no reason, to call the end of this emergency. So, we Need to watch closely, prepare for bad news, and hope or pray for the best.
By the way, the figures for fatality rate has risen outside mainland China from 0,2% to some 0,6% in recent days. Again, Chris, I hope you are right, but at this moment it is still too early to tell.
2
Just so’s ya know, the intelligent response to, “We don’t know,” is, “Okay, we don’t know, so let’s all take a breath, wash our hands a lot, stay home if we get sick, and make sure we’ve had a flu shot.”
Of course, “We don’t know, so let’s make stuff up and try to spread fear,” is a lot more fun.
1
If a new variant of Ebola was detected less than 300 meters from the CDC level 4 containment facility in Atlanta, we would be concerned that a possible outbreak occurred from there. Yet, nearly six weeks after the outbreak in Wuhan (where the only level 4 facility exists in China), we still do not have a ‘patient zero’ or definitive proof how the virus originated...only speculation that it came from an animal market. Why?
4
@J House
Why? Because animals are proven vectors for new viruses, and a place where people and animals are in uncontrolled close proximity is a likely candidate.
Highly secure and controlled research labs are possible but much less likely sources of infection.
Patient Zero is a more a thing in movies
...For all purposes it's irrelevant where this came from anyway.
4
@Alec Macarthur
"...For all purposes it's irrelevant where this came from anyway."
If it was engineered in a lab and escaped, it is highly relevant...and that is not science fiction. SARS has already leaked from Chinese labs in the past.
It's not China alone but the entire world economy and the global supply chains that have been affected adversely by the coronavirus outbreak. It needs common global effort to tide over the crisis.
2
I suspect that the coronavirus doesn't care about the economy nor the governing leaders nor the people nor the politics of either America or China.
10
@Blackmamba
But but central bankers MO ey will cure the virus
Has anyone tasked the US Government to define its preparedness to control the Coronavirus?
13
@Ed Kearney
Didn’t you see the fake picture of Air Force one plane at Daytona yesterday
We are not prepared we left Americans stranded so what else is new
@Ed Kearney
Trump is on this.
We have FEMA. They will roll out of bed a few weeks after the first cities have reached pandemonium... We can rely on that!
One of the biggest lessons of the ecology courses I took in the mid-80s was that we could measure populations and predict their growth IF the environment stays pretty much the same.
The point was the environment changes and now it's changing very rapidly.
Trump doesn't learn nor do his supporters. The process of measuring and predicting can be applied to human populations as well.
The economies of the world relied on cheap goods from China but the tariffs slowed that down and now the coronavirus halted a lot of purchases and trade altogether.
That speed bump will ripple out into the rest of the world and fear only makes it worse. There's a lot more fear than knowledge these days.
I don't expect this to change the White House's thinking so expect the ripple to grow into a wave.
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China has shutdown an area with a population of Texas and California combined...literally quarantined the entire population and closed all commercial activity. And is still struggling to stop the spread of Covid-19
Both the epidemiology that can be gleaned from the stats, and the response of the CCP tells us THIS IS NOT THE FLU, but something 20-40 times worse.
Now is a good time to stock up on food etc. Right now while the supply chains are unstressed.
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@Alec Macarthur Not sure if I'm ready to go FULL prepper, however, stocking up on essential foodstuffs, medications, and ensuring plenty of clean drinking water is a sensible precaution.
@Alec Macarthur
Take a deep breath, Alec.
The sky is not falling.
Go out and look.
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I’d ask precisely where you’re getting that scare-caps “20 to 40 times worse,” bit from, but I am pretty sure I already know exactly what part of your anatomy you’re getting it from.
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The United States is extremely dependent on China for so many throw away devices in the bio medical field.
In a worst case scenario how could this effect a very vulnerable population whose ability to fight off coronavirus is already low?
Will China and manufacturers- distributors put profits first?
Before the hurricane we had a thriving similar industry in Puerto Rico, but to my knowledge it was never rebuilt.
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This is a dangerous time. In today's paper, we learn that Japan, the world's third largest economy, is rapidly declining, down 6%. The US economy economy is growing at a paltry 2.3%. Our manufacturing sector is contracting because of the tariffs. (Most US growth is in the service sector). Trump wants to restrict the flow of technology into China which is a chief US export. China, the world's second largest economy, has been slowing because of the tariffs. Now this virus has shut them down.
The US cannot carry the global load with only a 2.3% growth. Everything is in place for a global recession to set in. If the world does not manage this situation properly, that will happen.
The tariffs are taking their toll. I'm in the consumer electronics business and parts have risen 30%. What used to cost 6 cents is now 8 cents, no big deal. But what used to cost $3.50 is now $5, very big deal. What used to cost $9 is now $12, what was $2.50 is now $3.25.
This increases are destroying profit margins and we can't raise prices in a soft economy, and especially, in the face of foreign competition who can get the Chinese parts tariff free. China supplies the entire world with electronic parts.
The dominoes are lining up for a big fall. Trump is in the White House. Not hopeful.
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@Bruce Rozenblit "The US economy economy is growing at a paltry 2.3%."
2.3% is not a "paltry" growth rate, Rozenblit. Most countries would kill to have one that healthy.
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@mpound
2.3% is what it was under Obama. Every Republican complained how horrible that was. Terrible, unacceptable they said. Failed economic policy they said. Now, it's great. How did that happen?
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@Bruce Rozenblit Growth comes from 2 sources: (1) Increase in population; (2) Improvements in productivity. Our population growth is slowing (not allowing in immigrants isn't helping); and productivity improvements are (mostly) slowing as well. Why? Because once you have removed the labor costs, you can't remove more of the labor costs. In short, growth isn't the be-all and end-all indicator of economic prosperity. Other statistics help round out understanding, e.g. wage growth. Unfortunately increases is lower wages of late driven by government required increases in the minimum wage, not beneficent company policy. The great uncoupling in 2000 marked the beginning of the disconnect between productivity growth and improvement in wages. It used to be when a business improved productivity, they laid off the lower paid workers and hired fewer highly paid workers. The lower paid workers found other jobs at comparable wages. No longer. The laid off workers can no longer find other jobs at comparable wages. Hence, productivity growth is not meaningful anymore for health of an economy.
And what will China do to clean up their viral act ?
In 2002/2003, China introduced the world to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavrius with 8,098 cases resulting in 774 deaths.
And now, their new and improved coronavirous has infected 70,000 people and killed 1,700.
China needs to reevaluate its eating habits and produce markets if it wants to stop producing the world's premier coronavirus plagues.
The world's face mask and hazmat bodysuit companies are really enjoying themselves.
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@Socrates
Buy 3m
1
@Socrates And what will the US do to clean up their viral act ?
In 1918, America introduced the world to the Kansas Flu with an estimated 500 million cases resulting in an estimated 50 deaths. Furthermore, the US government censored its media so that this pandemic became known as the “Spanish Flu” because the Spanish media was not censored.
And now, their new and improved H1N1 “Swine Flu” has infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people and killed 150,000–575,000. It is still an ongoing pandemic today - 11 years later.
America needs to reevaluate its eating habits and produce markets if it wants to stop producing the world's worst plagues. Stop eating wildlife like alligators, rattlesnakes, bats, deers, and other wild viral reservoirs.
The world's face mask and hazmat bodysuit companies are really enjoying themselves.
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@Socrates
Thank you ! A similar comment of mine from the weekend was censored, lest it might hurt the sensitivities of those Chinese people, who would like to continue consuming Pangolin scales, ground rhino horn, tiger teeth, bile taken from live bears, bats, snakes etc., etc, not to speak of cats and dogs, because of utterly nonsensical superstitious beliefs that they enhance sexual desire or extend lives or heal illnesses. That’s what the Chinese government should focus on, ban the import and consumption of endangered wild species for consumption! And if you don’t care about the poor animals, Chinese government, care about the thousands of dead in your country, spreading worldwide!
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"But the bulk of these members are not at full production, mainly for lack of workers, said Ker Gibbs, the chamber’s president".
China is saying get back to work but workers aren't showing up.
Hmmm, maybe they're sick? Maybe China's reporting is fudged?
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@tim k Even if they are just afraid, it is still catastrophic to resuming full production. Before long, the stock of available parts will dry up, and the replacement times will go from weeks to months.
If the statistics are much higher for Coronavirus due to a coverup in China this desperation to start production will lead to mass infection. China is very wealthy with a $4 trillion surplus. They need to investigate if this disease is spreading or not? Or it will come back to haunt them .
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Why are we evacuating people from a QUARANTINE?! Furthermore, why are we removing people from a quarantine, known to have a large number of active infections of a highly contagious virus, without taking every precaution to ensure that removing people won’t put others at risk of infection?! Doing so completely defeats the purpose of a quarantine, and unnecessarily and recklessly puts others at risk.
Seriously, DO THEY UNDERSTAND the concept of a QUARANTINE, or INCUBATION PERIOD?! I’m guessing they don’t because they’ve just brought a virus to America which has infected more than 70,000 and killed over 1,700...and I’m not at all confident that they’ll be able to effectively quarantine people here, since they just removed those people from a perfectly effective quarantine for no discernible, justifiable reason. This is an epic failure with regards to public health and safety.
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@Concerned Citizen
Because the quarantine, as implemented, was not working. Considering the number of persons on that ship, the conditions in the ship itself, and the inability stop the internal spread of the infection, to start the clock running for another 14 days in response to each new infection, was to be essentially a life sentence for those waiting out its slow contagion. For the record, they are still isolated. Remember, this is a virus, whose communicable properties are understood, which happens to be residing in fellow human beings not some form of nuclear contaminant which can be sealed up and buried.
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@Concerned Citizen The logistics of supplying food and other life support systems to thousands trapped on this floating incubator with the inevitability of virus spread from person to person through contact with inanimate objects is probably beyond the capability of those now supplying the ship. There is a good chance the virus has already spread to Japanese in Yokohama by those working to supply the needs of the ship's crew and passengers. At least smaller groups quarantined on military bases can be better controlled. Quarantine only works when real epidemiologists are in control of the situation. There is real quarantine and there is the use of the word without understanding how quarantine is accomplished.
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@Concerned Citizen The reason is that the virus was spreading on the ship. That's not a proper quarantine.
Your belief that we can't effectively quarantine these folks is baseless. We have hospitals. The ship wasn't a hospital.
5
Relying the Chinese jugernaut in the wake of the coronavirus disaster speaks volumes as to how vulnerable the world economy is. Fragile growth in Europe is threatened by the shut downs caused by the virus. These countries have based their future on Chines manufacture of the their products to sell to the Chinese consumer. The poor management of the virus by the Chinese leadership is a cautionary tale.
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No trust. Cannot trust the Chinese Communist Party - its oaths, promises, assertions, assurances. No trust, no business.
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@c harris The Chinese CDC did a terrible job by reacting with massive quarantines within 5 days of the first confirmed case. Meanwhile, the American CDC remains the gold standard by still not reacting to the 2009 American Swine Flu 11 years later, letting it become a pandemic with 700 million - 1.4 billion infected and 150,000 - 575,400 dead worldwide.
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@Zhanwen Chen The CDC produced and distributed test kits to diagnose the disease and then a vaccine.
I know that there's been a fair amount of mindless China bashing but your comment was highly inaccurate.
It will be interesting to see if the drastic quarantines in China work.
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
12
Far better to manufacture more products in the USA and look to create better jobs,fast food work is not the best
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@Dale Stiffler
Manufacturers need Suppliers. And it’s not that easy to get a supply CHAIN up and running. Because we’re talking multiple supply chains for any product.
Not only that the US no longer makes all its own steel. And if production of steel slows enough in China, you’re gonna wait for that raw material, which you need for making all those widgets, that you’ll need for putting together your final product.
Nice idea you have. But not very workable! Would take years!
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Slow start is expectd. Full production is just a matter of time.
Part of the reasons is due to fear of Coronavirus spreading. Another reason is due to local bureaucracy who are preoccupied with the virus. Economy recovery is a secondary objective for them. Sacking two top officers in Hubei province, the epicenter of Coronavirus, by Xi Jinping due to incapable of handling the crisis is not helping the economy either.
Just learned from Hong Kong news, Xi Jinping has started demanding local officers to pay attention to economic matters, not just virus alone.
But sooner or later, the Coronavirus will die down, and of course in the meantime many patients will die. It will be the price to pay for the ineffectiveness of local government and bad eating habits of wild and exotic animals.
5
I’ve probably missed it in all the various reports on the virus, but with the restart of (somewhat) normal business, maybe restate how long the virus can live...on objects. Those fabrics, curtains, phones, car (parts), their shipping containers.
And the transport workers who handle all of them, packers, cargo plane, train, ship personnel. If any have the virus, then the time could be, unknown?
Will shipments be- quarantined, fumigated, treated in some way, or is that even necessary?
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Reports I've read say the virus can live 2-12 hours on a surface, depending on the material. So overseas shipments are not a concern.
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@Jo Williams - A quick search of the web indicates 14 days for bacteria, 7 days for cold viruses and most other viruses expiring within 24 hours. Of course many food items are shipped under a controlled atmosphere void of oxygen—that could extend the time; so washing things and boiling thoroughly at 212 F degrees will help to 99.99% if there is concern.
5
There are people on transport ships and in shipyards. They can carry viruses, too. Leave the professional advice to the professionals (epidemiologists).
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