What can you say?
Some folks are just lucky.
But what folks forget about being lucky is because those lucky folks put in a lot of hard work - to ensure that they end up looking lucky.
So, sure our POTUS may be lucky with these economic numbers.
But he has worked hard to deregulate, cut taxes and even his fight with China.
He took a big hit politically. The Democrats have opposed him every step of the way.
Heck, they just recently tried to throw him out of his job.
He is again lucky - if he had really lost his job in this economy - he would have easily found another job.
I am listening to Democrats debate in New Hampshire.
You would think we are in America of "economic carnage" that POTUS darkly painted in his Inauguration.
And this economy will definitely put him get reelected.
And I bet my job on it.
2
Of course! This is all payback to Trump and the Republicans by corporate America for the massive tax break they all received. Quid pro quo.
3
I have no doubt President Trump is going to benefit from today's economic news. His supporters will take him at his word that it was only him that got us to this point and any negative aspects found in this economy is the result of others resisting Trump's solutions.
That said, I fear we are all living on borrowed time before another economic crises is upon us (perhaps we are already there). Everyone knows this President is known for exaggeration and takes "Puffery" to a whole new level. Let's be honest, 514,000 jobs revision downward for 2019 is a whole other level. A nearly 20% decrease than previously reported!!! Now that is what I call cooking the books. Worrisome is the fact that we're thriving in an economy with an annual deficit of 1 trillion plus dollars a year. Why does this seem odd to me?
2
Most economists would tell you that our economy would, in fact, be doing much better than it is, after Trump's disastrous economic policies. The economy is really doing well in spite of Trump, not because of him. But no matter, he'll take all the credit for the efforts of others - something he's done all his life.
But the economy isn't what will get Trump re-elected. It's race. Many of Trump's most rabid supporters, especially in farm country, have been hurt by his policies. And remember those coal miners? They never got their jobs back, either. Nor has the manufacturing base expanded at all in the past three years. So this leaves only one issue that unites Trump voters, and that is race.
This economy could be doing as badly as it was in 2008, and Trump supporters would still be in lockstep with him. If these were the circumstances, Trump would tell them that all the hardship was caused by all those "brown people" trying to take away something that was rightfully theirs.
No, it isn't the economy that will give Trump a second term. It's ascending white nationalism. We have Hispanic children in internment camps on our soil, under a president who has no plans to ever return them to their families, and not a peep out of Trump voters. If these kids had been blondes with blue eyes, Trump voters would be screaming to the high heavens. And their response to skyrocketing hate crimes? Crickets. That they're not outraged about any of this tells me what is really behind their votes.
7
Biden should be telling voters that Trump's economy is riding the wave of the economic turnaround that took place in the Obama/Biden years. Just like Trump's fortune was built by the hundreds of millions of dollars his daddy gave him, the U.S. economy was built off the Obama/Biden economy that was left to Trump. Biden is the best candidate to make the case for this and undermine Trump taking all the credit. Biden should be out there defending the Obama administration's accomplishments. Nothing will get under Trump's skin more than that.
6
Wow. So now we can all breath easy.
Imagine how great America will be if Trump gets a second term?
2
Trump has done a lot to sink the economy and undermine our ability to respond to the next crash. He juiced it with tax cuts, cut a bunch of financial regulations and smashed up the CFPB. He's consistently putting a lot of pressure on the Fed to manipulate interest rates lower to make him look better. All this stuff fuels bubbles and breaks the tools we have to respond when those bubbles pop.
The stock market is high because rich people have too much money and nowhere else to put it.
Is anyone going to be completely shocked when it blows up and a Democrat has to come in and attempt to fix it?
6
Just keep telling everyone they are better off until they believe it. It's called gaslighting.We are moving into a phase of full-on class warfare. The plutocrats are vicious. They don't care. There will be an eventual rebellion; hopefully it will be peaceful.
4
It it's good Trump will claim it and if it's bad he will blame it on someone else. Nature of the beast.
3
So from an administration that is built on lies and fabrications, how do we know these reports aren’t full of fake numbers? All these newly created jobs, are they more trumpublican fantasies? News flash: Not everyone on the coasts, in the Midwest and down south has a 401K.
What kind of new jobs are these and in what sectors? How many offer real career growth? How many provide benefits? We already know salaries are stagnant or down, so when will workers see better wages? Why do so many Americans work 2 and 3 jobs?
Instead of supporting this corrupt administration and its impeached bully “leader”, we need to give thanks where it’s really due: to President Obama for pulling us out of the Great Recession, deftly turning our country around and onto the renewed path of prosperity that trump just had the dumb luck to fall upon.
Finally, with so much economic good news from trumpublicans, why are we still stuck with the derelict infrastructure of decaying bridges and roads, antiquated mass transit systems, public higher education out of reach for most citizens, crippling costs of health care and rising homelessness?
1
Born on third base and thinks he hit a home run.
The Life Story of Donald Trump
Sad.
4
The last Republican President left office with the economy in a flaming free-fall. President Obama set the scene for the present moderately ok economy. Our Bloviated Braggart in chief has taken the credit. The next Democratic president (whoever he or she may be) will probably have to do it again. Little Donnie always breaks his toys.
4
Are we sure no one is manipulating the figures? Just saying...
1
Everything you say is true but the good news for democrats that even with this "great economy", most democratic candidates are even or beating Trump in the polls.
Biden has always had the biggest lead especially in swing states.
The economy will implode. It is based on record corporate, national, consumer, student death ( I meant debt but it autocorrected to death!) with an insane trade war against the whole world friend and foe alike.
The problem for the democrats is there is no guarantee it will happen before Election Day.
Here are the things they must do to insure their best chance of winning.
1-Call out Trump for being a bigot, ego maniac demagogue, pathological liar etc. but don't dwell on it.
2-Stress as the number one issue an affordable, national, quality health plan. Even republicans are for it.
3-Offer moderate progressive solutions to issues that Trump demagogued like war, immigration and trade.
4-Do not identity/social engineer obsess. It was lethal to Hillary.
As of now vote for Biden, he has the biggest consistent lead in the polls against Trump especially in swing states. If that changes vote for the new person.
2
America is not a business. America is a nation state.
The President of the United States isn't a businessman. The President of our constitutional republic is the head of the American nation state.
There is little it any cause and effect correlation between what a President does that impacts the American economy.
Moreover, every business that Donald Trump founded on his own failed. But for the real estate he inherited from his daddy and his reality TV sojourn Trump is an awful businessman who can't make deals and doesn't have even rudimentary understanding of basic economics.
3
There’s no reason not to re-elect him. Personality quirks can wait.
1
Thank you NYT another misfire on Trump’s so called sure thing, the economy.
What universe is this writer living in to conclude that it another 200.000 jobs is another positive sign for Trump.
Only if he believes for it to be great that couples now need two jobs each to survive, while hoping that there won’t be any visits to doctors and hospitals.
For young people just coming out of college it is even worse, there are no jobs to find that will help them pay off their student loans and have to move back in with their parents.
Salaries in the USA are now almost on par with developing nations, meaning they have been stationary for decades, while the costs of living and surviving have gone up dramatically.
Any of your writers recently look at the never stopping house or apartment rent increases?
Oh of course they will be paid off by the pay back of the one trillion dollar tax cuts for the rich, that money has s really rolling in, not.
When will there be articles written about how miserable life really is for single parents, young couples retired people etc as the only jobs available are jobs that pay wages below minimum.
What about people not being able to pay for unexpected costs as low as $400?
But still the NYT believes the economy is strong?
2
Goosing the economy with an unneeded tax cut for the unneedy. Who cares if this economic sleight of hand adds three trillion dollars to the deficit? Deficits don't matter unless democrats are in charge. And now, it is entitlement chopping time. Great economic news, indeed.
1
Trump has an economy that he worked to build and the current economy is not the same as what he inherited. It is much better. He also inherited a very dangerous and disastrous world of terrorists, drug dealers, drug addicts, disorderly migrant entrants and gangsters and they are all defeated or driven out. So it is not just the economy that Trump can run on but keeping America safe and law and order in control would be just as desirable,
2
Yeah, we are headed toward Midas like wealth for the top 1%, and the bottom feeding rich on hate, anger, loathing, bodies infected by meth and opiates, and a rotting soul for everyone.
Enough is enough. The thought that the lovers of Mitch and Trump are winning is enough to make me sick and spur into action. Watch out, the angry center left is mobilizing.
3
Yeah,riding the coat tails of the Obama recovery,with no help from the GOP.
1
So let's endorse Elizabeth Warren so she can strangle the life from this economy. She has a plan for that.
3
Don’t even try to pretend a Democrat would not take just as much credit (and that the Times would not afford him/her credit). It’s looking like a rough November.
1
Sorry, I'm waiting for the redaction two weeks from now when they "correct" the numbers, but who remembers that? trump and his sycophants lie like the rest of us breathe. And shocking that the laid-off construction workers have gone back to work, like EVERY single year before when spring is nearing. Move along, nothing to see here, just more lies and misrepresentations from the deplorable "president" and his equally deplorable administration.
2
Give it time.
Trump ALWAYS finds a way to convert an asset into a liability.
1
Can't wait to see what Neil has to say the day after the election. He's a perfect example of the pack mentality that exists in so much of the media ..... they just don't know how to critically think for themselves. The Times is an incredible institution in this nation. Columnists like this really show though how inadequate institutions like the Times have been in doing their job in the asymmetric age of Trump. It's one thing for Neil to be a parrot. It's another thing for the Times to give him copy. STOP. DOING. THIS.
1
Hey hey, I love these economic predictions. Like a stopped clock, they're right just about never except here and there. This one's surely wrong. Not because Mr. Irwin is ignorant. But because it's too complex for anyone.
Ok, the 3 Main Issues with Americans are Health Care, Health Care and Health Care.
This is A#1
Everything else: Oligarchs, Climate Change, the Deficit --- we must address them. But the only thing that matters to voters is stuff like health care.
1
I would like to thank Mr Irwin for this article. It must be difficult to write an article describing how the economy is doing rather well under a president that I am sure he dislikes. But his ability to write objectively is one reason that he has substantial credibility. The economy is doing well, quite well. Trump would be a shoo in for reelection if he were not such a personal jerk.
Mr. Bloomberg announced his plan to roll back the Trump tax cuts and raise an additional $5 trillion. He has not committed to a balanced budget and we all know Mr. Bloomberg is not shy about telling everyone what is right and wrong. Free abortions should save a lot of money spent on unwanted children and food regulation should enable the population to work a few years longer. Don't expect him to be a moral leader and do expect him to be less of a family man than Mr. Trump.
Neil Irwin seems to be the only one at the NY Times that appreciates the dearth of economic alternatives to Mr. Trump.
2
I thought it was interesting to see that the number of homeless kids in school has increased to more that 1.5 million, the highest in a dozen years. That doesn’t jive with a booming economy does it?
3
Wake me up in 2025. Unless he declares a third term for himself. Then just put me to sleep.
1
This guy is lucky, lucky, lucky. It all seems to fall his way, always.
Confounding and dispiriting to the 'rest of us,' feeling cursed having to live by and in Mad King Donald's world.
as anyone with a political, economic and logical mind knows as a involved & aware citizen of the USA in 2020, the POTUS, on the whole, has zero do do with "the economy" ....like a well financed & revenue generating large corporation, the entity largely runs itself ....this is especially true with the USA's economy when making any direct correlation to what the occupant of the Oval Office does, or does not, do day to day .....that said , "perception" is only for the weak of mind, smarts & logic ....
Nothing about borrowing $1T per year. Crazy.
2
Trump controls statistics, justice and all his lies.
The worst president ever. He is ignoring the constitution and the democracy. If democrats don't improve their image Trump will win. The only thing Trump does well is to communicate. He wants to close all news media that criticises him which is against the constitution "Freedom of The Press"!
If all Americans went out to vote Trump would be defeated.
VOTE...VOTE...VOTE!!!
3
It's ironic that the photo in this story is from the Port of Long Beach, where robots are replacing workers terminal by terminal.
1
Trump's going to win again on immigration. Just imagine if there's another migrant caravan all over the news a week before the election.
1
“Justice Department Drops Antitrust Probe Against Automakers That Sided With California on Emissions”
Just saw this headline .... remember Trump said he was going to go after the Automakers... yes, that’s one of the “great” things Trump did for the economy? How petty can you get. He has a laundry list of “great things” like this. All payback for not going along with the party line, sounds like Russia “command economy” to me.
2
In normal times the President would be a shoe-in for re-election. But this is Donald J. Trump: pathological liar, scofflaw, con man, misogynist, divider-in-chief, racist who stokes the flames of white nationalism, and all around terrible excuse for a human being. That's why his approval numbers have been under water since he took office.
Character counts, and Trump is just a 'character' who needs to be written out of the reality show.
1
Not acquitted.
1
The economy was great when Al Gore ran for president, it didn't help him.
Stop looking at these stupid macro numbers, look at how many households are nearing insolvency. That, along with out of control borrowing is the real story.
1
Mr Irwin... what is with all the waffling in your op eds??
Just last month you wrote a op ed titled:
Economy in a Nutshell: Manufacturing in Recession. Services Booming.
The monthly jobs report also shows it’s still hard to get a meaningful raise despite low unemployment.
Which is is Mr Irwin? Or do you just write whatever will get eyeballs on your op ed for the week?
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/upshot/economy-in-a-nutshell-manufacturing-in-recession-services-booming.html
I'd say that manufacturing being in recession IS a problem for Trump.
I'd also say that Services doing well is not good either.... as a vast majority of Services labor is low cost.. often minimum wage labor rates. Mr Irwin.. try living and keeping a roof over your head in the same circumstances.
/SAD
1
The article: An accurate, fairly complete assessment of the election year economy.
The comments: Ain't it awful! Whoa is me! The glass is empty (not even half full)!
Despite the failed tax scam, the idiotic trade war, the corruption and incompetence of the Trump regime it’s reassuring to know the Obama recovery has yet to completely end.
Thank you President Obama!
11
Enjoy the slide.
1
Everything is in favor of President Trump being re-elected this year.
And, personally, I am loving my retirement savings account.
6
The economy needs to be good to secure just enough electoral college votes: 270.
Not 538 or much less 271, just 270.
The democrats have a snowball chance in their global warm bubble to convince enough people to take away Trump's economic success to give away free health care to illegal immigrants.
7
You make money cheap when the economy is bad and you reduce debt when the economy is strong. Donny wants to do neither. Our country is being mismanaged the same way Donny managed his businesses. Bankruptcy. Burning a candle from both ends may give you more light today, but tomorrow our options are reduced. A trillion in new US debt is insane. Obama did it to ensure our country eased out of the Great Recession. Trump is doing it to ensure HE gets elected. Big difference. And now the GOP is silent.
7
As has been mentioned, many presidents have gotten credit for a good economy they did not deserve and blamed for a poor economy they did not deserve.
Clinton got credit for an economy he had very little to deal with, but good stuff happened under his watch. Same thing is now happening with Trump. He is benefiting from an economy that was already doing pretty good.
I have a friend that is a historical economist and he can make an argument for why every president we’ve ever had was brilliant with the economy and why ever president we’ve ever had was horrible.
How many people on the street would actually know that America was in a recession still eight years after Roosevelt have been in office?
You could make an argument that he handled it poorly. But on the other hand, you can argue that it could’ve been worse without him.
I think you just said that when workers make more money it is bad for the economy.
It sure scares the rich - and you?
1
Gig workers, like Uber and Lyft drivers, Instacart shoppers, “task rabbits”, et al aren’t considered unemployed. Are they, therefore, part of Trump’s amazing best ever most perfect success story.
Yes, I realize that working part time or working for an app didn’t begin with Donald Trump’s presidency. Even so, I would like to see a more detailed analysis of the current types of employment.
2
Obama inherited the worst economy in 80 years and saved the country from Great Depression II. Five million jobs were lost in 2009 before ARRA took hold, and still over 11 million jobs were created in his tenure. As Steven Rattner noted, on virtually every economic measure Obama has outperformed Trump over the last 35 months.
Obama did not brag because he knew millions of people were still suffering from the economic disaster bequeathed to him by George W. Bush. It is hardly surprising to see Trump taking credit for Obama’s economy while failing to do anything for those still suffering. It is also not surprising that ignoramuses buying into that. What IS disturbing is to see so-called senior economics correspondents drinking that Kool-Aid or using the passive tense ("trade wars could escalate") to describe Trump's impact on the economy.
As we all know, another recession is coming. The only questions are whether it comes before or after the election and whether there will be any adults in the room to clean up the mess, as Democrats have been doing since 1932.
Finally, instead of suggesting how good it is for Trump that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates and may even cut them, Mr. Irwin might reflect on how bad it is for the nation. Low interest rates will take an important weapon out of the arsenal when that recession comes. If Trump is reelected, the crash that follows will be worse and last longer than Bush's.
6
The economy is not in good shape. It's clear from the downward reevaluation of job growth in 2019 that Trump is presiding over a slowing economy.
GDP growth of 2.3% with a 1.1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019 is nothing to brag about. The deficit in Obama's last year was 585 billion; so we have about an 80% increase in deficit spending from 2016 with lower GDP growth than in 2016. There was larger job growth in Obama's last three years than in Trump's first three years. Obama brought unemployment down from 10% to 5%.
In fact, it takes a large amount of mismanagement to take Obama's strong economy and slow it down so quickly. By contrast, it took Bush seven years to crash a strong economy. Three years out Bush was also touting a strong economy as Trump is now doing. Like Trump, Bush also blew up the deficit.
So, Republicans have learned nothing from the Bush disaster, it's a replay. Trump has brought as to the edge of recession.
10
The economy of the USA is vast and robust relatively speaking. Blessed with natural resources, a diverse environment, and two ocean access it had and has advantages others do not.
Also is blessed with a diverse population mostly originating from those wanting to make a better life for themselves and their progeny.
But those advantages don't naturally translate into superiority measured objectively over the long-term. Nor naturally translate into the type of conservation, peace, serenity, security, fairness, order, and equal opportunity that makes Nations endure as best of breed.
That takes a system of government that is rational and holds human rights above rights by birth, luck, and/or ordained privilege. We leaned toward a good one: Secular Liberal Democracy (SLD) as opposed to Theocratic Authoritarian Plutocracy (TAP) at the time sort of the European model.
Then it takes a framework to channel and deploy resources effectively and efficiently; that optimizes against opportunity while protecting posterity and spreading the gains. We leaned toward a capitalism tinged with socialism and regulation to maintain conservation and people protection.
It has been a journey; we've been imperfect; always room to improve. But obviously we choose right path.
I never dreamed we'd be as regressive as we are today. The GOP obviously wants to reshape to TAP. Scary part 46% of us think that is OK!
3
Propping the economy up by unparalleled deficit spending doesn’t suggest a good future.
9
Only an economist or economics writer would see good news in negligible wage growth that leaves a majority of workers struggling, or that the crumbs trickling down from the wealthy is a sign of a good economy. Most of the new jobs are in the poorly paid service sector, not the kind of jobs to raise a family on and send kids to college, let alone deal with rising medical costs. What about the trillion dollar deficit that these writers seemed to be quite willing to dwell upon when republicans harped on deficits?
And if you held up a chart of declining unemployment from 2012 through Trump, could you tell where the Obama admin left off and Trump began? No because the trend lines started with Obama and merely continued with Trump.
Will there be another quietly announced 500,000 job downward annual revision like the one in August?
The mantra from the likes of Irwin are to collectively repeat selective data to support their claim that the economy is great, so that it becomes a self-fulfilling perception. What about the journalistic responsibility to report meaningful news?
33
Three deficit problem will be an easy fix. Just cut Medicare and Social Security. Hint, that's been in the works from the start.
2
This Political and economic genius (you know -- the one with 4 bankruptcies and hidden tax returns) is the only President that can run record deficits in a so-called 'booming economy'. His booming economy is a 'house of cards' being fueled by Federal spending and tax cuts that only benefit the wealthy and big business. The entry level jobs he has grown are mostly those vacated by the aliens he has hunted down like dogs. I fear that a higher education will be reserved for the wealthy while the working middle class and the working poor supply the gardeners and dish washers of the future.
22
I'll take a 1.5% GDP rise over autocracy, but that's just me, I guess. Ah well, the beaches of Costa Rica await.
8
Superficial diagnoses of our economy’s health based only on jobs numbers mask the continuing reality that basic necessities like healthcare and housing are unaffordable for millions. And the Trump economy’s soaring deficits will hamper future growth and make the government less able to counteract the next recession.
Also unexamined is the widespread assumption that the health of the economy is equivalent to the health of the society as a whole. “The economy” is all that matters, indeed is all there is.
Can we please stop insisting that because unemployment is low and the stock market is high, everything is A-OK in America?
Yes perception is everything, and short-sighted articles like this just fuel the fires that might re-elect Trump.
27
If the economy is the only thing that matters this election we deserve what we get.
10
He's not doing as well as Obama did and Obama had a mess to contend with. trump's job rate is 198,000 month average; Obama's was $223,000. Obama lowered the unemployment rate by 2 percent. Trump hasn't done that well. We gotta get the news out.
10
@M. Stillwell
Obama came into office as the George W Bush depression was beginning. While I give him credit for stopping that depression, Obama had a sizeable pool of people available to put back to work. Trump, on the other hand, is pulling people into the work force who did not seek employment for years, and many thought would never work again.
I really don't think you can compare the performance of Presidents almost a decade apart, each facing different situations when coming into office.
6
Considering the factors you've listed along with the high level of optimism in the economy, what sense does it make for progressive Democrats like Sanders and Warren to run on a platform claiming the whole economic system needs a complete transformation? How would "democratic socialism" improve this economy or get more people working?
Biden is a miserable candidate, and with three tries for president he's never won a primary or caucus. But at least his message of tweaking and incrementally improving the economy and the healthcare system makes sense.
If Sanders gets the nomination, his angry-socialist message will be a total disaster not only for his campaign, but for all lower-ticket Democrats that support it.
6
@Phil This is an economy built on sweeping away the financial guardrails lit in place after 2008; on low interest rates that leave no margin for recovery when the economy inevitably cycles down; on trillion-dollar deficits; and, most importantly, on environmental destruction.
A growing economy that runs on fossil fuels is killing the planet. And without a livable planet, there is no economy.
The hard fact is that we need to shrink the economy and accept much lower standards of living if we want to survive and preserve human civilization.
Only a 73-year-old sociopath would tout a booming economy that ends in disaster on a very short timeline. Who cares what the world looks like in 20 years, after all?
Trump proves one thing: if you want to gain popularity, run deficits.
These new deficits are unlike deficits from other periods.
It is my understanding that this is the first time in history that the Fed has in effect started putting the deficit on it's balancesheet.
Much of new treasury issues are not bring covered without help from the Fed. This caused a spike in the overnight repo rate back in Sept 2019. The Fed had to come to the rescue to prevent a collapse of the Repo market.
Trump is taking us down a very dangerous path.
I cannot figure out how the news media allow him to claim that he has created some kind of miracle. It is deficit spending banana-republic style.
19
Trump proves one thing: if you want to gain popularity, run deficits.
These new deficits are unlike deficits from other periods.
It is my understanding that this is the first time in history that the Fed has in effect started putting the deficit on it's balancesheet.
Much of new treasury issues are not bring covered without help from the Fed. This caused a spike in the overnight repo rate back in Sept 2019. The Fed had to come to the rescue to prevent a collapse of the Repo market.
Trump is taking us down a very dangerous path.
I cannot figure out how the news media allow him to claim that he has created some kind of miracle. It is deficit spending banana-republic style.
6
For all the naysayers who want to use facts to debate with this administration, you are forgetting who is President and that for him facts don't matter. There is more than enough good news for Trump to claim great success on the back of the Obama administration's real hard work. That said, at least in my city, things are humming along very well.
1
I don't see the US economy as doing that well. Yes, the stock market is up because Trump lowered taxes on corporations which issued buybacks which inflated stock prices. And although Trump probably flunked Econ 101, even he hears from his rich friends that "when interest rates are low stocks will grow." So he jawboned the Fed to lower the Fed Funds rate and sure enough the saying works.
But my view on the economy is that our way of measuring it is (dare I say it?) fraudulent.
Yes I have the latest I-phone. But 29% of the birds in the US and Canada have disappeared since 1970. I-phones are measured by GDP, birds are not.
We are facing an extinction event in a few hundred years due to global warming, and nobody seems to have noticed that the cause is our obsession with growth, including economic growth.
So no. The economy is terrible.
Consider the following. In 1700, the total population of Africa was 61,000. That's according to Wikipedia. I did a double take when I saw that figure.
Yes, life was hard. But you can read about what the life of the Africans was like in books on the San people, for example, from Botswana. The picture that emerges is that they lived close to nature, perhaps a life that some emulate now.
How much better it must have been than the life in slums of Nairobi or Kinshasha or Lagos or Johannesburg.
Somehow Americans have lost sight of that.
I recommend that studying native African cultures should by a HS graduation requirement.
3
@Blaise Descartes No, the population of Africa in 1700 was not 61,000. That is either a typo or an absurdity.
The Obama Boom continues, despite Trump’s interference. Trump’s “genius” here was to increase the deficit 60% in a booming economy, cut corporate taxes in half, and convince the Fed to lower interest rates, despite unemployment below 4%.
Tariffs are a regressive tax on Americans, millions have lost health insurance, Trump is lying non-stop including about pre-existing conditions, etc.
Democrats can steamroll Trump on his record.
12
Yet, income inequality is at an all time high. I wouldn't be surprised if the hiring in January is a re-election strategy by those made richer by Trump and after he is elected they may or may not remain useful. A follow up study should be conducted. Bernie and Warren are popular for this very reason- Republicans refuse to acknowledge income inequality, they like an enslaved work force too much to care about a quality of life for Americans. French janitors have a much better quality of life than most middle class Americans.
8
In 2 months it will be obvious the GOP’s “small government” can not protect Americans from the catastrophic plague of the Coronavirus, and Trump’s economy will be in shambles. Let’s see how many votes that gets him.
Just try to buy a protective face mask now. They are all gone just like Trumps support will be. Those mask will be worth more than the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
4
Why should we believe economic data coming from the government? How can we know it's reliable, when so much that comes out of the White House is false or misleading?
6
The US economy is so distorted by central bank policies it’s impossible to know what’s going on and plays into President Trump’s malleable, indefensible rhetoric. Simply summarized, if you’re part of the 99% the economy is a gulag of opportunity, hidden from view by the 1% who seem to be experiencing unprecedented prosperity in perpetuity.
3
I have yet to see any discussion about the employment rate that explores the impact of the boomers exiting in mass, and younger generations filling the many vacated shots. Add in a slow but steady recovery from the financial crises and voila, a tighter job market. Regardless of who the occupant of the White House is, I have trouble believing that either party's policies have created the current favorable environment.
3
Things are really sad when people are disappointed at the improving prosperity of their neighbors and friends. It appears that these people feel so secure in their own economic status that they can wish for bad national economics to affect an election. Obviously a form of economic elitism.
I remember jokes about funeral directors, who suffered bad times when everyone was healthy, and happy during influenza plagues.
We should take advantage of the present low interest rate environment to refinance the national debt with long term bonds. As low as our interest rates are, they are attractive to foreign investors whose own economies offer even less, sometimes negative, long term rates. The American dollar has always been a safe haven.
15
Maybe the economy is strong enough to afford a Medicare buy-in expansion to cover anyone with a pre-existing condition that insurers don’t like to cover.
And the US is spending twice as much of its GDP on health care as the rest of the top economies.
Why twice as much?
Imagine how many teachers’ salaries, new bridges, and cancer research budgets could be funded with the extra $2 trillion every year.
And the upper half of the economy may be OK, but the bottom 20 percent is getting destroyed economically. Homelessness is getting worse. The country is totally ignoring its poorest citizens.
Health Care, Homelessness, Education, Infrastructure.
10
@Toms Quill
The private insurance industry would love it. They would dump their sick insureds on Medicare while keeping their healthy profitable people for themselves.
If we are going to expand Medicare short of 'Medicare for All," , we should do it by lowering the Medicare eligible age from 65 to something less. This would get the older private insureds out of the private insurance pool, and into Medicare. A younger private insurance pool should be a healthier pool, allowing lower private insurance premiums.
Great news.
When is the US going to spend money for infrastructure, to pay down the US debt that has doubled since 2016, and help poor and middle income taxpayers who are burdened with the balloon tax increase in six years that was built into the recent tax cuts for business and the wealthiest?
14
Poor people don’t pay ANY income tax. Wealthy people pay the vast majority of income taxes in the United States.
“Approximately 76.4 million or 44.4% of Americans won’t pay any federal income tax in 2018, up from 72.6 million people or 43.2% in 2016 before President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, according to estimates from the Tax Policy Center, a nonprofit joint venture by the Urban Institute and Brookings Institution, which are both Washington, D.C.-based think tanks.”
12
@Patrick H. So what? As a percentage of their income, the wealthy can (and should) pay even more. Besides, regular folk pay enough in taxes for everything else (excise taxes, property taxes, etc.).
6
@Patrick H. If you think that's unfair, then address the vast (and unusual and extreme, by world standards) income disparity that allots 40% of the national wealth to 1% of the population. Do something about that, and then we'll talk about the less wealthy paying more taxes.
5
So many of the commentators are in panic and denial over these good economic statistics. There's a lot the numbers don't measure, but they do indicate things have clearly gotten better for the working classes under Trump. His Blue Collar Boom is real. The problem of homelessness is largely concentrated in Democrat controlled cities.
16
@Caleb Mars Unresearched nonsense! "Half of all homeless people are in one of five states - California (129,972), New York (91,897), Florida (31,030), Texas (25,310) and Washington (22,304). It is primarily an urban issue and more than half of the homeless population are scattered across the country's 50 biggest cities.Sep 18, 2019."
Trump's Blue Collar Boom is made up. What numbers are you talking about? Most people are not gaining anything from a strong stock market.
1
@Caleb Mars Your use of the noun - "Democrat-controlled cities" for the correct adjectival form - Democratic - gives away your partisan stance.
It's an economy built on environmental destruction, sweeping away the guardrails put in place after 2008, low interest rates that leave no room for recovery in a downturn, and *trilluon dollar deficits.*
This is not sustainable and is courting disaster in many different ways.
But hey, if you couldn't care less what the country (and the planet) Will look like in 5 years, we're doing great!
Temperature in Antarctica hit 65 degrees yesterday, BTW. Highest temperature there on record, ever. As the song goes, "Ain't it funny how fallin' feels like flyin'for a little while?"
1
The usual economic statistics ignore some other important measures that affect people's economic lives. Two interesting measures, which I've never seen (though they may exist) are median net wealth and median liquid assets. We need medians rather than averages because of gross economic inequality. In fact, measures of inequality deserve a prominent place in national economic statistics.
I also wonder how the standard economic statistics reflect our "gig economy" where many people work only part-time, need to hold several jobs, or both.
16
@Paul Abrahams
Mean and median are both statistical "averages" (i.e., measures of central tendency).
Whenever someone reports an average, we must ask, which one?
4
@Peter Rasmussen Mean and median are very different. The mean (i.e. the average) of the sequence 1,2,3,4,10000 is 2002 (10010/5) but the median is 3. In the economic world, average incomes are very much biased by a small number of huge incomes.
10
That things couldn't be better at the moment for Trump heading towards November is true enough.
Things also looked great for Herbert Hoover in February of 1929. In September and October, things changed.
12
@Tim Clark
In those days, small investors were buying stocks on 10 percent margin, meaning, they had borrowed 90 percent of the price of the stock they owned. Thus, when stock prices fell 10 percent, these investors were wiped out, and their stock went on the market, further depressing stock prices. The investing public is nowhere near as leveraged in 2020.
6
@RM
“Investing public is nowhere near as leveraged in 2020.” Hedge funds are leveraged big time which is far more relevant than the individual investor. Nosebleed Dow but 2% GDP projected for 4th quarter. Leverage is very much alive.
1
The stock market, which Trump likes to crow about, is an illusion. Where would it be I’d the Fed stopped doing $60 billion/month of quantitative easing?
12
The economy Trump inherited was doing pretty well, and has continued to do well. But some of the last 3 years growth was due to two items which will cost later:
(1) tax cut to the 1% will raise the deficit.
(2) discarding environmental concerns will increase pollution and disease.
Both of these 'effects' will be paid for in the future.
Enjoy
18
Tax relief was far more widespread than just the 1%. Also, one of the most important provisions in Mr. Trump’s tax reform was the reduction in corporate tax rates. Corporations need to be focused on innovation, building facilities, and creating jobs. Low corporate tax rates allow them to do that. Just ask Ireland! (With their 12.5% corporate tax rate.)
7
@Patrick H. The only thing that has ever created jobs is demand. Corporations took the tax cut and distributed it amongst their shareholders. Think of it as a transfer of dollars to the wealthy now from future you and me--as we pay off all the debt.
4
@Patrick H. The biggest tax rebates, by amount, were skewed heavily to the wealthy. Plus, investment rates have actually been low overall since Trump's tax cuts. A majority of the cuts for corporations went to stock buy-backs to boost prices to put even more money in the pockets of the wealthy and managers who get stock options often even bigger than their big salaries. So beside huge tax benefits, they benefited as well from artificially pumped up stock prices.
And the tax decreases increased the debt from 600 million to over a trillion dollars, which the republicans are using to argue that social security and medicare benefits should reduced.
Great work Trump!
7
If the economy is so great why are so many people living in poverty and on the streets. Wages of low income people are up because states run by Democrats raised their minimum wage. Additionally, many Americans are not able to access necessary health care or are going bankrupt because of the high cost of care. This country’s infrastructure is crumbling. Having a great economy doesn’t seem to work that well for most people. It appears that more jobs does not necessarily mean more prosperity for most Americans.
17
“If the economy is so great why are so many people living in poverty and on the streets.”
Mostly they are living in the streets because of their drug/alcohol abuse or addiction and/or mental illness. In the 1970s we initiated a policy of closing down the asylums, and instead opted to treat these patients in a “community psych“ housing milieu. But these patients neglected to show up!
The bureaucrats failed to understand that that kind of treatment required patients who are rational thinkers.
And now we wonder why we have a “homeless“ problem?
1
The economy is NOT doing well. The numbers typically reported are ok but there numbers that indicate how well our economy is meeting people's real needs are bad. Total jobs may be "up" but these are not good jobs. They are part time or seasonal or temporary. They do not include good benefits. And the denial of climate change and the ignoring of the need to rebuild infrastructure are doing major harm.
18
The Nation's economy has millions of economic sub-structures. It is popular for the high priests of economics to describe the totality of these sub-structures. It is common for political leaders to treat those descriptions as gospel to support their own political arguments. Supporting arguments are usually in the form of predictions about the future. That kind of thinking is so illogial because no one can predict the future. Yet arguments about the future consequences of economic policy can be heard from all sides in the political arena.
Having participated in the U.S. economy for 77 years, I have come to accept four rules for guiding my economic behavior. 1) Money always loses value over time. 2) Always live below your means. 3) Meticulously keep track of revenues, expenses, assets, and liabilities. 4) Do not put too much credence in economic forecasts. What these rules do is provide a measure of insulation from the ups-and-downs of the Nation's economy.
7
If only the truth was being reported in government statistics.
Unemployment - REAL unemployment - has been over 20% since 2009 with most of the job creation being minimally paid without benefits.
There are 'shortages' of applicants for jobs only because the wages being offered for positions like a CNC programmer are absurdly low. The news is full of reports listing mass layoffs. Retail - a traditionally low/entry point on the jobs scale - is losing thousands of jobs with whole companies going bankrupt. Banking and finance are cutting jobs by the hundreds. J.P. Morgan is offshoring whole departments to India.
I'm still seeing neighbors in their 50's losing their jobs - taking years to find another (if at all). Those that find positions are making half of what they used to.
College grads are finding that stating salaries have fallen in buying power over the years. They are effectively HALF of what they'd have been if they'd kept up with inflation over the last 40 years.
Inflation has been over 10% in most major metropolitan areas - CPI is vastly understated leaving pensions (the few left) and Social Security paying half of what they should be.
16
With federal spending in excess of tax revenues that creates a budget deficit of $1,000,000,000,000 plus per year, no wonder the economy looks good--it's being supported by the government.
9
Exactly. Why don’t the Democrats point this out.
In fact, all the great prosperity we have enjoyed since the early 80’s (except for briefly when the republicans deregulated the banking industry and a major collapse ensued) derives from the government pumping huge stimuli into the economy in the form of federal spending deficits.
And when Obama administration ran deficits, the right wing people howled in protest. Now it’s Thank you President Trump.
12
Don: nothing new. Obama had the same deficits with the Government spending the money. Trump reduced taxes so the Government runs the deficit but Citizens keep the money. Either way, the difference between government spending and government revenues is a deficit of a Trillion per year.
2
In August we saw a negative yield curve a precursor to the las 6 recessions suggesting fund managers don't see a robust economy. The deficit has doubled under Trump over $1T and corporate debt is way up borrowing cheap money. This is a house of cards that could collapse before the election, similar to Trump Casino and Trump University.
15
@Joseph B And if a recession hits shortly after he wins reelection (disgusting though that idea is, I think it's likely to happen), what will he do? Decide to pump up the deficit to $2 trillion / year? Or go with the Republican Party's dream wish, and decimate Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security? (The Republican trifecta.)
I know everyone has predicted doom and gloom since Trump but at some point due in part to Trump's actions, we'll have a repeat of 2007. There's a lot of inertia in country as big as the US. This is why when things fell in 2007, it took a long time to right it and point it in the right direction, which Obama did. Trump has sustained that but using measures that will cost when the next big crisis hits. In other words, the party will end. When it does, Trump is not the guy you want runnign the show. I am okay with Trump getting a second term just to watch him bring it all down which is what my neighbours who voted for him wanted. It'll just be like 2007, but worse. Trump also has a poor grasp of English.
6
Like a lot of people commenting here have pointed out, the economic indicators used in this article do not seem to capture the reality of many people's lived experience. But, unfortunately, they are the indicators used by Trump (and past Presidents of both parties). And if incumbent Presidents say it long enough and loud enough, voters accept it. So perhaps what is needed to deflate Trump's claims to be responsible for this so-called economic "success" is a candidate with a better track record than Trump. Who? I do not see it in any of the candidates debating tonight. I am starting to wonder if it is Bloomberg.
4
Any economy in which half of the population has trouble coming up with $400 for an emergency is not a healthy economy. Neither is one in which the three wealthiest individuals have between them as much wealth as the poorest half of the country. And neither is one in which the poorest fifth have a net worth of zero or less.
31
Median household income in 2018 was $61,937, an increase of 0.08%. Median household income has increased every year since 2013, but the increase from 2017 is smaller than the prior three years. Previously, increases ranged between 1.8% and 3.3% annually.
Obama was good for the economy of regular Americans, and he did that even after the economy collapsed. The improvement under Trump is much less.
No doubt those facts do not matter to Trump or his supporters. They will believe what the want to believe; that the economy was terrible under Obama and it's thriving now.
It's too bad we live in Trump's post-truth world.
20
Minority unemployment is the lowest in history. I know that disturbs the narrative of most of the commenters here.
That chart of economic growth reflects a general downward trend after Trump was elected. How can this be interpreted as a good thing?
13
Sherry: that’s just plane wrong. A lie perhaps. Annual GDP growth is higher under Trump ( 2 percent) the number Obama (1.5 percent average). Don’t you remember Obama famously stating that 1.5 percent is the new norm and not to expect more?
9
@William Not sure where you got your numbers from. (A lie perhaps?) The GDP growth rate under Trump has not been better than that under Obama. P.S. Where is the 6% growth rate Trump promised?
1
Yes, the economy looks good when you don't ask who is it good for. You can kind of pretend it's improved for the sector that has not benefitted from the increase in productivity since about 1970, by looking for small recent changes. And to be fair, the Democrats too bear a lot of responsibility for so many people working more than one job not being able to make ends meet. But this was something Trump was going to improve. Something his tax cut was going to improve. We need the press to point out what a dismal failure Trump's efforts have been.
His tax cuts have provided an expensive stimulus for business. But for much of the money companies got in tax cuts management could not figure out how to invest it in their businesses so they bought back stock. That helps the elite and no one else. Oh, and it will leave the rest of us to pay for it as soon as the Republicans remember how to add and subtract.
Let us be direct. The economy is bad for most of us. It does not provide living wage jobs.
30
The glass-half-full message of this piece will not be popular with those Democratic politicians who feel they must succeed in selling a glass-half-empty message if they are to be elected.
Many of us wish the Democratic Party had a stronger overall message with which to sell itself to the average American. We remember when it did.
18
Where does someone over 50 find one of those supposedly plentiful jobs? Still like 2009 for those of us in that age group.
70
@Jay Why
Thank you for mentioning that! (I was busy pulling on my bootstraps, trying to raise my 60 year old self back up into the Middle Class...)
5
@Jay Why Plus... the nice, conservative SCOTUS is in complete denial that this is an issue and has made it essentially impossible to win a claim of age-discrimination. Unless a company is stupid enough to put in writing a statement saying "get rid of the old people" or "don't hire anyone over 40", an age-discrimination claim will be summarily rejected.
1
Trump says that wages are the highest they have ever been-ANOTHER LIE-Pew Research says that today’s real average wage(wages after accounting for inflation)has about the same purchasing power as it did 40 years ago in 1978! This is a startling statistic but feels about right to me because I was raising a family forty years ago.Trump doesn’t get inflation or purchasing power-he only uses fake numbers to make his case.
34
@ReciPaucity In fact, over the past forty years pensions have been virtually eliminated for most workers. Over that period 401k's have been substituted, but even there, barely half of all American workers have any form of retirement benefit.
And healthcare costs have vastly outstripped even real economic growth, and since average real wages have risen not at all, healthcare costs have devastated American families.
So neither of those metrics adds to the wellbeing of American workers and families. Precisely the opposite.
14
@JANET MICHAEL
Trump simply has no understanding of economics at all.
As such.. he has no clue that inflation exists.
INB4 Trump tweets: who knew that inflation could effect the buying power of a dollar earned?
The election year economy is everything wealthy Americans could hope for. Middle class and poor are still struggling.
73
@Robert O. And yet, the restaurants in my middle class neighborhood are packed every night. Someone must be doing well, that’s not a sign of a terrible economy.
Here’s the rules folks, as they have applied to every president in history. If the economy is good, the president takes credit. If the economy turns bad, the president takes the blame.
Now, that approach fails to recognize that many factors outside the president’s control affect the economy, as the article states. But, like it or not, if it is happening on the president’s watch, the president gets the credit or blame, as the case may be. So it will be with the next president, whether that preident is a Republican or a Democrat.
20
@Gino G if the economy goes south Trump will blame everyone else but himself.
1
If has been said that the Trump recovery is merely an extension of the Obama recovery. I agree. Yes, we are adding jobs and the overall economy is growing, but where’s the beef? The performance of both of these key headline indicators fail to reveal the underlying weakness of the US and global economy in 2020.
The pocketbook issues voters most focus on is not the daily functions of the stock market, but prospects for a for good paying job and or pay raise, something mostly absent from today’s workplace.
So by the numbers, Trump’s economy added 191,000 jobs per month and the unemployment rate fell by 1.2 percentage points. During the last 35 months of the Obama presidency, new jobs averaged 227,000 per month and the unemployment rate dropped by 2 percentage points.
This may explain why Trump, never shy about taking credit for anything that serves his political moment, is constantly running against Obama’s record of achievement and re-writing history (just like his Russian friends) about Obama's inheritance of the worst crash in modern times followed by the successful turnaround of that 2008 crashed economy -- which was and is brought to you by, and courtesy of, the Republican party’s failed doctrines, the same doctrines Trump has reintroduced (on steroids) for a personal fee.
32
Not quite - Bill Clinton (and his Republican Congress) repealed Glass-Steagal, which allowed banks to do what they did.
1
I am not sure burning the furniture to heat the house is a sign of a successful economy.
There are good and bad reasons to run deficits.
Good reasons would be investing in infrastructure, renewal energy, the out-dated electrical grid, global leadership in electric vehicle manufacturing, education and stuff like that.
Bad reasons would include huge corporate tax breaks that are invested in stock buybacks and fossil fuel subsidies instead of productive capital projects for the future.
The full impact of Trump economic policy will be more apparent in a few years rather than a few months, much like those of W Bush that ended in a huge crater.
But short term damage has already been done and the midwestern states that elected Trump are suffering disproportionately. Manufacturing employment continues to decline and China seems unlikely to live up to its $200 billion import promise any time soon. Oil and gas prices are at levels that have debt laden frackers teetering on bankruptcy and 3 other countries are bringing large new wells on line in 2020, just as China demand is falling and some 60,000 international flights have been cancelled. The impact on manufacturing of oil equipment could be similar to 2016 and states like TX and ND could lose fracking jobs, just like WY, KY and WV have been bleeding coal jobs.
While slow US growth overall seems most likely, it won't be distributed evenly across counties. Meanwhile, we will be chopping up more furniture for the fireplace.
84
@Look Ahead
Republicans are only deficit hawks when a Democrat is in the White House.
1
"What is becoming more clear is that the data on the economy are giving him something genuinely worth boasting about."
When I read that I had to check that I was still on The New York Times page, and I hadn't jumped to Drudge Report.
Your report is honest and correct: The economy is as close to perfect as you can get, and it will help President Trump get reelected.
But more important than that is that Americans are entering the workforce and finding jobs. And it's not just college white guys benefiting -- black unemployment is record low, and -- as another NYT article today notes -- black worker wages are rising. As President Trump mentioned in his SOTU speech, women are being hired faster than men for new jobs. This is an equal opportunity economy.
22
But what did Trump do to build it. He inherited it from Obama, kept the same rate of growth, and same rate of decreasing unemployment. Somehow, Trump just didn't mess it up. If that is your claim to fame, ok, Boomer.
2
So, it doesn't concern you that Trump acts like a dictator? I mean, wasn't the whole POINT of America was so that we can get away from monarchies?
I think our founding fathers would be very disappointed with an American supporting such an ignorant tyrant.
1
It makes perfect sense that the easily measurable parts of the economy are doing well.
People hate what Trump has done to the government and the news. As a result, many distract themselves from it by working more and try to soothe their stress and anger with excessive shopping.
9
I think they're cooking the books..everything else are lies, why not this?
47
@melissa melissa, your hatred of Trump is so deep that you would rather that good news is a lie. The Upshot is one of the most well researched and presented areas of the paper. The figures they rely upon are not from the administration, but from the most reliable and objective sources. They would not be reporting false economic statistics. Sorry to disappoint you, but, alas, the economy is indeed doing well.
If all else dire fails, there’s always the off chase another meteor could strike. Notice you never hear a dinosaur complaining about Trump.
2
@John Doe
If a meteor did strike.. Trump would blame Democrats for it.
You heard it first here. :)
1
OK, impeached President Trump, say it with me: "Thanks, Obama!"
31
@John Heenehan If the country felt Obama's economy was that great, then Clinton would have easily won 2016. It was the country's desire to end the economic malaise that fueled Trump's successful candidacy.
1
@John Heenehan
And if the economy had tanked under Trump, I'm sure you would have been blaming Obama...
1
@John Heenehan
Three years past the end of the Obama presidency, it's getting hard to attribute economic success to him. If the economy were in recession now, would you blame Obama?
1
The Times and mainstream media have not covered what Trump has done to help the economy.
However, it is well known what he has done, just look elsewhere for his actions.
Thus, many people, unfortunately, believe the economy is either not really good or Trump is not the cause of a good economy. They either hate Trump, are biased, or ill-informed. Not helpful to their cause, either.
People who are truly knowledgable, and that includes in general business leaders and economists and specialists. recognize his substantial contributions to this boom.
9
@RP
Perhaps you can explain why the truly knowledgeable business leaders are cutting back on capital investments at a time of vast transformation in the economy, across energy, transportation, health sciences, agriculture, telecommunications, retail, manufacturing and business and financial services sectors.
If it wasn't for widely shared uncertainty among those same knowledgeable leaders over global trade, supply chains, regulations, educated workers and climate change, we would be blowing the doors off in capital investment.
Knowledgeable business leaders have a tough time planning out 5 years or more when a new President throws everything into reverse, even if they benefit from some of those policy and tax changes. Abrupt changes in automotive emissions standards out to 2025 have the US industry in a tailspin, at a time when their profits are already falling and they need to make huge critical investments in next generation vehicles.
16
@Look Ahead
Yes, CapEx is low, awaiting resolution of uncertainties.
However, ask the CFO's about their EBITA.
Since you seem to understand , explain a few of the benefits Mr. Trump has contributed. I know people just love to spout “all the things “ he has done but frankly I can’t name any besides a few vague mantras I hear like “cut regulations” , i would like to see the data on that effect, but chances are there is no specific data, that’s what makes it such a “good point”.
I will name a couple negatives and we can see
1.
Disrupted Global Trade on a massive scale
2.
Increased our debt on a massive scale
3.
Increased likelihood of a costly war on several different fronts
If these were from a Democrat we would have seen a massive sell off in the stock market and we would be talking about voting in a new President.
Hey, so if you want to vote Republican go ahead, just don’t vote for Trump, he’s not the only Republican is he? We are lead to think that Trump is the only Republican in the whole universe that could what he has done? I don’t buy that at all. Anybody could do what Trump has done, it’s pure Republican economics. Nothing new. The style is new. There are better people, better qualities to vote for.
1
Why not just acknowledge the economy is strong, Trump deserves to "boast" and it's what millions of Americans were hoping for too?
22
@AACNY I don’t get your comment. I read the article and seems the author did just that.
7
@AACNY, hardly, I cry every time I open my American Funds statement lately thanks to Trump. Sorry Dems, not the kind of tears you were hoping for though.
14
If a Democrat has caused the “uncertainty “ with Global trade that Trump has caused the stock market would have tanked. Wall Street just loves Republicans and hates Dems not because of anything , but it has become a analytic that triggers a rise in stock prices , so everyone “buys into it”, drinking the Kool-Aid .
I haven’t noticed much difference in the economy that wouldn’t have happened anyway. The stock market is not really the economy, it’s a Ponzi scheme.
14
Farm trade and manufacturing will hurt the Trump areas of the country. So, even if the numbers are good, some people will still hurt.
6
@albert
Farmers are not short sighted. They recognized that what Trump was doing would benefit them down the road.
13
Then conversely we should recognize what slashing environmental regulations will do “ down the road”, but that never happens... hmm , I wonder why?
1
@AACNY
Then they are indeed short sighted.
1
Not a very sophisticated article. No mention of the exploding national debt, which is financing much of these so-called good times.
93
@TJGM Good point. That, and the slashing of environmental regulations, which will eventually end up costing people not only money, but their very lives.
49
@TJGM True, but it's about perception and direct experience - most people aren't that sophisticated in how they understand systems, as the last few years have shown us. Mainly they want something to point at in order to justify their particular tribalism, and this will fit the bill.
4
@TJGM : I agree entirely This is why Nassim Nicholas Taleb (of "Black Swan" fame) is so contemptuous of macro-economists, who often let their politics sway their analysis.. See a New Yorker-hosted interaction with Robert Schiller - one of the few economists who Taleb respects; others are Amartya Sen and Daniel Kahneman - at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcTvkt8k0sE
4
Not a word about what he's done to the budget defict! Shame on you!
78
@newageblues
What do you think "democratic socialism" policies would do to the deficit?
1
@newageblues
I agree. Trump talk already is attacking "high payroll taxes" for existing workers. What do payroll taxes fund? Why Social Security and Medicare. Hold on to your MAGNA caps retirees living the good life in Florida. Trump is coming for your Social Security and Medicare to fund his tax cuts for the rich and Big Business. Invest in dog food and cat food stocks.
2
While lots of people love him (ugh!) lots of people who want to get rid of him at all costs regardless of the economy.
The 2018 voter turnout set a new record and with all that’s happened with Trump since then the 2020 turnout might set records too.
12
@Bronx Jon
The problem for democrats is that the centrist democratic candidates that did so well in the midterms look nothing like the extremely leftwing candidates running now.
As much as democrats would like this presidential election to be only about Trump, it will be a referendum on many different players, including the DNC, the Democratic establishment, Speaker Pelosi and, especially, the Democratic Party's leftwing.
They're all on display now, and it's not necessarily going well.
18
This is a referendum on America .
Lie and cheat , who cares as long as I have mine.
The reactionary democrats have been brought to the forefront by bad American governance by corporations and business leaders. I don’t blame democrats for trying , but they are trying to change from the outside in. The changes in America need to come from people not the government. We need to change our values to show we are a peaceful leader in a free world.
Am I the only one that has noticed how militarized , aggressive, polarized the WORLD has become? I blame Trumps aggressive nature as part of the catalyst. We can not afford to be so divided along petty party lines when the world is becoming much more dangerous. We need to lead. One way to lead is to show how America treats its people, its employees , it’s equality . I don’t see that improving much.
America is showing how to “first”, that is not the “best”.
Generally, presidents can only be detrimental to an economy, by getting in the way with Executive Orders and encouraging bureaucratic regulations in the departments they administer as the Chief Executive. The ‘natural order’ of America’s economy is for entrepreneurs to take risks, invest, and grow an economy. As a real-life CEO for decades Mr. Trump recognized that and ‘got out of the way’. (This was the illusive “magic wand” President Obama referred to.)
Lower corporate tax rates, i.e., high corporate tax rates are essentially bureaucratic regulation, and higher energy production (essentially reducing the “tax” on the overall economy) are huge factors in our current strong economy, and Mr. Trump can rightly take credit for these policies.
8
So he can rightly take credit for the ensuing debt. Where is the Tea Party when you need them ??
12
@Patrick H.
Conversely, a Sanders or Warren presidency would be like throwing a wrench into the works. The uncertainty alone would be disastrous for the economy.
14
@Patrick H., You would have gotten the tax break regardless-- it was passed by Republicans in Congress, not Trump. What he has contributed is more uncertainty due to his haphazard tariffs.
1
Wait a minute!
College is increasingly unaffordable for the middle class with college debt continuing to skyrocket, medical costs are increasingly hurting average people, in no small part because of Trump's sabotage of the ACA, while tens of millions have to forego necessary drugs because of cost, Trump just handed out massive tax cuts to his billionaire buddies, manufacturing is in recession, farmers have lost tens of billions in overseas sales due to Trump's trade wars.
But "the data on the economy are giving Trump something genuinely worth boasting about."
In what parallel universe?
139
@Sean
Exactly! Thank you.
21
I have no fondness for Trump or the Republicans.
I don't give him much credit for the economy.
The Democrats, however, with their obsession with raising taxes and attacking free enterprise, business, investors, and the so-called "rich," terrify me.
I have never voted Republican before. In 2020, that will change.
25
@J. - I'm inclined to agree. The obsession with wealth redistribution, increasing the death tax and lowering the exception threshold, taxing capital gains even more...why would any moderately successful person support this?
19
@K., Perhaps because they recognize that they benefit from living in a civilized society and it's more responsible to pay for the things we need than to run giant deficits?
27
@K. Why? Because over the past forty years, the average wage of the bottom 90% of Americans has not risen, while the earnings of the top 1% have gone up many times. Because while Trump and Reagan gave massive tax cuts to the uber-wealthy, making America the lowest-taxed country in the OECD (24% versus 24% of GDP), American public universities have been starved of support, resulting in huge increases in tuition.
The percentage of the economy going to the top 1% is back to where it was in the roaring 20's, while nothing close to that horrendous income inequality has occurred in any other developed country in the world. While handing out massive tax cuts to the rich, we've neglected infrastructure, failed to rebuild our airports and ports and railways. And we can't even be bothered to provide paid family leave to mothers so that they can care for their newborns. The only developed nation on the planet that fails to do so.
Why would anyone support creating a civilized society that works for everyone in the nation? Is that really a question?
37
Before the "conservative revolution" that took over in 1980, average growth was over 3% .
Over the last 20 years, average growth is barely 2%.
Supply Side Economics, (tax cuts for the rich and deregulation) have LOWERED average growth by ONE THIRD. That is the upshot. Why doesn't this article mention this.
7.96 million jobs were added during Obama's last 35 months I'm office. Only 6.69 million jobs were added under Trump's 35 months in office. The upshot is that job grown is down under Trump.
In Jimmy Carter's first 35 months, 10 million jobs were added.
Why is the upshot repeating Republican propaganda about their economic performance instead of telling the People the truth about Right-wing economics.
Obama didn't need Trillions in tax cuts to get growth. Trump did.
Stop helping Trump win by lying about his mediocre record.
121
@McGloin Citing Carter isn't a strong case.
Think about economic growth like strength training. Increasing the amount of weight you can lift by 10 lbs is relative easy. Increasing another 10 lbs is also fairly easy.
After a while, the easy improvement has been obtained and it takes increasingly more hours in the gym to add another 10 lbs of lifting ability.
That is where we are in the economy. After 2008, adding jobs was easy (since adding them was basically a reversion to the mean). Keeping the growth rate is harder and harder as the recovery went on.
10
People under 50 aren't going to vote based on the current state of the economy. In the 2018 midterms, Gen X favored Democrats by a 1.24 : 1 ratio. Millennials favored Democrats by a 2.14 : 1 ratio. Gens X, Y & Z now makeup over 60% of eligible voters. They outvoted Boomers & Silents in 2016 and 2018. They will do so again in 2020 by an even larger margin.
Some people might be joking about voting for a ham sandwich over Trump, but I'm not. I would literally vote for a Democratic ham sandwich.
46
Call Paul Krugman!
7
@Bertil Knudsen
I still remember the column by Krugman right after Trump's election when he said the stock market would tank for the foreseeable future. lol.
1
Large deficits borrow future growth and bring it into the present. Low interest rates do the same. Government policy has the economy turned up to 11. Where are we on real productivity improvement? The road ahead is worrisome, the time for payback will come.
35
@Andrew Howarth Yes, Trump is accumulating trillion dollar annual deficits for years to come. And those deficits mean that the we are borrowing from wealthy people, who got that money thanks to Trump's massive tax breaks for the wealthy. So his tax cuts put money in the pockets of the obscenely rich, who lend it back to the government which will demand that ordinary people pay back those obscenely rich.
Is that right?
23
@Andrew Howarth Yes! I’m looking for the Democratic Candidates to put together credible deficit reduction plans. So far, I haven’t seen any. I think they are missing out on an opportunity to reduce some of the runaway deficits that appear endless. Maybe Warren has a plan for that? If so, I haven’t seen it.
3
I agree with you except for one thing.
The rich are not covering our debt. They are busily speculating in the stock market.
Much of the new treasury issues are not being covered. This caused a spike in the overnight repo rate back in Sept 2019. The Fed had to come to the rescue to prevent a collapse of the Repo market.
It is my understanding that this is the first in history that the Fed has in effect started putting the deficit on it's balancesheet.
Yes, our stupid tendency to credit Presidents for macroeconomic trends may be our undoing. Voters in other nations have re-elected corrupt and/or authoritarian leaders whom they perceived as bringing "prosperity." I'd like to think we are different, but I suspect we aren't.
10
The stock market is not the economy. Wages are way below 1980s equivalence in real dollars, and most people live pay check to pay check. Then, everyone will become impoverished in old age due to a predatory medical system.
The economy of east coast share holders is good, and we know how the east coasters care about the plight of real people, they don't. So, no one is buying this farcical set of great economic news garbage.
Actually, the GOP cannot afford to fix the economy for the middle america serfs who vote republican because if they had a good economic future they wouldn't be so easily made to hate the brown people.
135
@Chris
“Wages are way below 1980s equivalence in real dollars”
Not according to Pew Research which reports a small increase over the 1980’s back close to the levels of the 1970’s.
2
@Chris If we were to be truly honest, perhaps we could argue that the economy hasn't really been good since the Clinton years, and perhaps Obama years were some sustainable
Perhaps we can (or shouldn't) go after growth for growth's sake and try to make things more sustainable. I think Europe and Canada are doing quite well overall in taking care of ALL their people, unlike the US where we have different classes of people on "welfare" (the very poor, the very rich, the military, etc. - there's a lot of money being spent on stuff that doesn't need to be done).
5
@Chris Indeed. And if this trajectory keeps continuing, it will be another 2007. My worry is that a D will win election and the economic collapse will happen when a D is running the show and will get blamed for it, much like Bush 1.
We're also facing minority rule. I think this is unreasonable. I'm surprised sincere conservatives would go in for this but I guess most humans are fundamentally hypocritical.
1
Trump is now easily favored to win.
19
@Ed - I'd give Trump a 60/40 chance of getting re-elected. If Sanders is the Democratic nominee, I'd give Trump a 95/05 chance of getting re-elected. If it's Bloomberg, I'd give it a 40/60 chance of Trump getting re-elected.
14
@Ed
Yes indeed. Even if Dems had a point about our current economic strength being overstated, good luck explaining that persuasively to the average American who more readily believes his 401k numbers than what comes out of a politicians mouth.
9
@grp00
"If it's Bloomberg, I'd give it a 40/60 chance of Trump getting re-elected."
If Bloomberg gets the nomination, Sanders' supporters justifiably will be outraged and sit out the election -- giving it to Trump.
Democrats have a first-class dilemma -- If they nominate Sanders, he will lose as badly as Goldwater did for the Republicans. If they deny him the nomination, his supporters will boycott the election, and Trump will be reelected. It's a lose-lose proposition.
3
It is an absolute certainty that the current recovery/expansion will come to an end with a recession. The only question is when.
If it happens late in the year, and is not a 2008 type crash, it won’t affect the election. If it comes after the election it will tar the party in power then (think Hoover). If it comes before mid-summer, it will be an election issue.
In economics, as in comedy, timing is everything.
58
This is why it’s so counterintuitive that the Democrats are pushing for an economic revolution. Maybe it’ll prove to be prescient if the economy suddenly tanks come November, but otherwise...
They are positioned to fight not only trump, but what everyone is seeing in the job market, their wages, and their investments. I’m lost as to why this is the strategy.
Would think it more sensible to acknowledge a great economy, and how you plan to build on that, not tear it down to start over.
20
@Rob Correct, I cannot see how a radical revolution occurs with a good economy. Sanders likes to portray himself as a return to FDR's party, but in 1932 unemployment was 25%, banks were failing, people were losing their homes, millions were standing in soup & bread lines, with the entire country near collapse. Sanders, nor even Obama would be welcome in the Democratic Party of 1932, nor would it ever nominate a woman to be President. So, quit running as if it were 1932!
15
@Rob
Growth was 50% higher in the 1960s and 70s than it has been for the last 20 years. Growth under Trump is only 2%. It was higher under Carter.
The "conservative revolution" has been a disaster for the real economy, even as it made the mega-rich richer.
The revolution that the Left is looking for is merely to go back to what used to work: tax the mega-rich to invest in Americans and America. Only the billionaires and the media they own thinks that is extreme.
20
@Rob
"Income inequality" was the democrats' big economic argument and rebuttal to Trump's strong economy.
Until low- and media-wage earners were declared the economy's biggest winners (by even the Fed chair).
Then came their increasingly outlandish promises of government's largesse. Free tuition. Free health care.
6