Frankie, don’t be in any rush to come home.
Right now, you probably can trust the Chinese government to tell you the truth more than you can trust our own government to do so.
18
This article is an SOS. get a really good mask, wear paper suits and goggles, swathe yourself in antibacterial wipes, and LEAVE, for your family's sake, if not your own.
15
Seems it's a little late in the game to consider leaving. Meanwhile, disturbing new details now being published concerning the new viral illness.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html
As such, you all will certainly be quarantined, if you are even allowed to leave SE Asia, and return to the United States.
1
The Mainland must learn from Taiwan which has has nowhere near as big a crisis as the Mainland.
5
"I want to believe that it has imposed the world’s largest quarantine — effectively sacrificing a province of 58 million people — because it is for the greater good."
There is no doubt that a quarantine if for the greater good. The only bad thing about this mess is that China did not impose major travel restrictions in early January and that the United States is letting anyone from China into the country.
If we had not catered to the selfish demands of wealthy international travelers the disease would have burned itself out in Wuhan. Instead we will have outbreaks in every major city on the planet.
This disease is now in every major airport on the planet- and people are still complaining about quarantines.
9
Don't run Huang, stay and learn. Whether a future redress 'do or don't', a lesson is to be learned from this outbreak. Indications, the ability to quarantine as many as have been, suggest a compliant public.
Taking shot at China here, which is mostly vitriol over it not obeying a confused West on climate, will only further frustrate the politically prostrate Left. The Lefts ancestral ilk declined to listen to MacArthur, then Westmoreland. Now it listens to Asia on climate. If you don't think so, take a look at the facts. Perhaps a quarantine precedent can be learned. Stay put Huang, take notes. If nothing comes of this, fine, but don't miss this opportunity. When will the world immediately quarantine as many, again?
Go. Take the flight to Jeju, Korea. Wear a mask, hunker down, take a window seat and don't leave your seat during the flight.
It will get worse.
9
Remember the motto of the government is "To Serve the People" since the day of her founding.
How would it be even imaginable that such a government will lie to the people? No their leader is not Putin's Trump who lies every time he moves his lips, or bangs his fingers on a virtual keyboard.
Besides, what's wrong with a 2.1%. First of all we can figure out it probably is not exact but a round off. So it could have been 2.06% one day and 2.095% the next. To make a statement from 2.1% to the magical virus is "very good at math" is bordering on "spreading rumor" which is punishable by law. Don't trust my word? Then go ask Dr. Li Wenliang.
4
You should leave. It's the lesser of two evils. I sense it's worse than reported. You live in a country where you have to bring your own soap when you go to the hospital and spitting on the street is a common occurrence.
Who's to say one day Trump will close our borders to anyone, citizen or not. Look how he treated Puerto Rico during and after Hurricane Maria. Trust your gut. Get out.
11
I cannot help but say that this is such an elitist view of life under lockdown. Come on, you are well-paid foreigners living in a high-rise in Shanghai, with food delivered to your doorsteps everyday when you need. There are people, like some of my own family, living in Hubei who cannot go anywhere because cars are banned from the streets and are too afraid of going to stores to buy things. You even have the luxury of asking each other, "Should we leave?" I won't be surprised that you don't worry about income, but many who are locked inside worry about not having income when not being able to go to work. For doctors who have to go to work, which is also the case of some of my family members, that of course raises a lot of worries for family member. Everybody has their own doubts, uncertainties, worries, struggles, etc. and why does yours -- being so elitist -- deserve to represent the "life under lockdown"? I see no point. Unfortunately the NYT is full of this stuff, also when it comes to understanding everyday struggles of ordinary Americans, some of who probably never read this site for this reason.
32
Every year approximately 1.7 million Chinese people die from air pollution and most don’t seem to care. A few hundred people die of Coronavirus and everyone goes crazy. I don’t understand this kind of rationale.
24
Sweetie - if you wrote this op ed and are still in Shanghai - you should leave now.
Everything you say is true. But as this epidemic spreads, there will be even less tolerance for criticism.
Just my two cents.
9
If it was my choice to leave I would
4
This writer is very much jayed! The government's decisions do not aim to save the most life. They do not even aim to save life. They aim to keep whoever in power continue to be in power. In Chinese politics, the difference being in power and not in power is all or none. Wake up, people!
9
I know of a very fun activity a young and strong quarantined couple can do to help pass the time in the bedroom of their apartment
7
I never read where you were asking for the advice of others, yet some of the comments offer advice...leave/stay/etc. To me it sounds like you have written a short story about indecisiveness.
YOU are the person most responsible for your well being and personal safety. In fact, YOU are totally responsible for your personal well being. Your actions will have consequences.
You say that you have "options" because you are an American. Having "options" is always very nice.
This coronavirus does not care about your nationality or your economic status. You make it sound like you are privileged?
Why not put all of your knowledge, know-how, marbles and a pair of dice into a corner of your brain, sleep on it, and then go off in the direction that you think is most prudent?
I assume that you want to live?
Sometimes opportunity only knocks once.
Lead, follow or get out of the way.
3
Stimulating sharings and concerns. Thank you.
You transmit an unwritten, unvoiced existential query:
what are the options, living in a denied reality of ever-present,
interacting uncertainties? Unpredictabilities? Randomness?
Outliers? Lack of total control notwithstanding one’s efforts;
timely or not? By oneself as well as with others? In the epicenter?
Elsewhere? Victim of institutionalized prevarications. Even lies!
By “unaccountables.” At all levels. Can one tie a knot? Hold on? Swing?
Some of the real issues that might eventually affect your decision to leave would include the possibility that too many workers, those who support the infrastructure (electricity, Internet, food supplies, water, etc.), are also sick and dying, and the infrastructure is simply collapsing from that alone. If it is already happening and if the Chinese government is hiding that this is already happening, it would become a very serious problem, and very quickly.
Flickering lights that eventually fail altogether, inadequate or sporadic heating and/or dirty water might be your first clues - but it might be impossible to safely leave if any of that happens. Uncontrollable public panic tends to happen at that point.
Whatever you decide, I wish you all the best and hope you both will be ok. Keep us posted, if possible.
9
One scenario as young and healthy persons is that if you survive you will get a mild case and then have immunity. The Chinese scientist who found the virus in bats two years ago found immunity in the blood of local residents who lived near the cave. If you were older, I would have left as soon as possible. Of course, this assumes what I read was accurate and that fate is good to you.
4
Yes, you should leave. Your concerns about travel are valid but start planning your departure. It is going to get worse before it gets better. We know the numbers are not accurate because China does not have the lab capacity to test every ill person and people are being turned away from hospitals and clinics. Spending your days in your pajamas locked up in your apartment is not living.
10
I’m scared of being scared. I don’t want to face how bad things can get, how quickly our cozy little home stay could fall apart should the infrastructure cease to run smoothly. A pampered sitting duck is still a sitting duck, and I no longer have any illusions about everything turning out fine.
I feel the same way with the current White House regime. Seriously.
31
Powerful first-hand account. Tough choices. Tough to not let fear take over. Good luck Frankie Huang.
12
"A pampered sitting duck is still a sitting duck"
Once all the pampered ducks throughout the world start treating everyone as equal, all of us would not be sitting ducks and we could save the planet for our children.
Wishful thinking...
14
Lately, it seems the world is unraveling right before our eyes.
14
If we go by number of deaths to number of recovered then 638 deaths to 1,568 recoveries then it is a 48.6% fatality rate. 24,000 are in stable condition. Assuming all the stable patients recover then it is about a 2.4% fatality rate.
https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html
3
There is something to learn about the value of trust in this crisis. Chinese people do not trust their government to tell the truth. This fuels rumors and widespread bad decisions.
So in the US today, I might trust the CDC, but would I trust announcements from the Whitehouse....no.
19
I question the author’s decision-making. Remain self-quarantined in your apartment or ditch to America until things are sorted out? If the right to do that we’re transferable to a non-citizen, many Chinese would pay a large sum for it. Yet this person is sitting in his pajamas and mask, eating grubhub and writing about whether to stay or not.
3
@RobtLaip I question your decision to criticize their right to decide what is best for them. You have no idea what their situation is. Just because you would cut-and-run doesn't mean it's right for them.
2
This is a cautionary tale of what happens when you cannot trust what the government tells you, when officials lie with impunity about things big and small, when your leader surrounds himself with people who will tell him only what he wants to hear; that is, that everything he’s doing is perfect, he needs to change nothing, and he will never be able to do anything wrong because he is who he is
Ask yourself honestly: if the coronavirus gets a foothold here, will you believe what this administration tells you?
17
This health crisis isn't due to the virus, it's due to the CCP.
3
How can Americans help???? We feel helpless as well, even though we are fairly safe.
No. Please stay there and take stock of dietary and home medicinal beliefs and practices. Soups making from bats doesn’t seem likely a good idea. Chinese tycoon, in 2012, Long Liyuan died from eating slow cooked boiled cat stew This is the problem.
6
So, Ms. Huang, what decision will you take?
I would be interested to read about what you feel that you and your husband would lose in leaving China, interested to read about what you love about your lives in China and what you don't like about living in the U.S. I think most Americans could not imagine your reasons. Please do explain.
4
President Trump has assured the US public that he received a perfect phone call from President Xi in China, that the Corona virus outbreak is well under control. Nothing to worry about, President Trump says. since we know that President Trumps word can always be trusted.
26
@Milque Toast,
What's he supposed to say?
1
You do realize that 98% of the people who get it survive right? The percentage is even higher among children. Apparently children sometimes even hardly show symptoms.
This will not be contained. It will spread. And what is it that we fear? Is it the deaths? No, it is the economic cost. We fear the economic costs because that is what our corporate overlords fear and by gosh we must fear what our masters fear. They have taught us well, when they are not happy we cannot be happy. Except, they are never happy because it is never enough. There is not enough money in the world for our corporate owners and their greedy and needy and childish share holders. Because Jesus loves money, and he always did, despite what the bible says.
8
@Chris It is not clear that the 98% figure is correct, only that is what the government wants you to believe. The great irony that the economic slowdown in China will spread across the world as our supply chains are integrated worldwide and also result in economic difficulties in the US, just as Trump is claiming the best economic numbers.
5
Extreme over population is terrifying to me.
12
I cannot help but say that this is such an elitist view of life under lockdown. Come on, you are well-paid foreigners living in a high-rise in Shanghai, with food delivered to your doorsteps everyday when you need. There are people, like some of my own family, living in Hubei who cannot go anywhere because cars are banned from the streets and are too afraid of going to stores to buy things. You even have the luxury of asking each other, "Should we leave?" I won't be surprised that you don't worry about income, but many who are locked inside worry about not having income when not being able to go to work. For doctors who have to go to work, which is also the case of some of my family members, that of course raises a lot of worries for family member. Everybody has their own doubts, uncertainties, worries, struggles, etc. and why does yours -- being so elitist -- deserve to represent the "life under lockdown"? I see no point. Unfortunately it is full of this stuff on this site, also when it comes to understanding everyday struggles of ordinary Americans, some of whom probably never read this site for this reason.
8
@XP So you are angry? Thanks for your additional illumination, but don't blame the successful.
1
A Chinese friend has confirmed what this author has said is pretty much the experience of others living in the cities near Shanghai. The friend also confirmed that mistrust in government reports is very high and that conspiracy theories are rampant, even among health professionals. Not sure what the right response to this crisis is, but surely getting assistance from the WHO and the CDC couldn’t hurt.
6
Here in California we have many people in quarantine from Hubei province. If you leave now you will not have to spend two weeks in a quarantine camp.
The second issue is airlines are already reducing the number of flights in and out of China due to people changing their plans.
2
Every generation gets to have its own experience with diseases and with fear from them. In the 1950's in America, it was polio with visions of children in iron lungs and braces. Our response was literally a march of dimes which funded the race for a vaccine from the sugar bowls of our country.
After the hiatus from many more vaccines for dread diseases, we settled into a self-obsessed complacency cracked open by measles as we learned the cost of the anti-vaxxers campaigns and blown to bits by this 2019-nCoV epidemic. If a coronavirus vaccine existed, would anyone refuse it now?
Fear pressed into service of xenophobia can drive us apart. Fear serving to unite us in response can bring us through difficulty to triumphs like Jonas Salk's.
As humans continue to spread into animal domains, our contacts with bats, primates, pigs et al. will stir up a continuing array of new diseases. We must continue to be prepared, be resolute and be respectful of the natural world.
23
Trying not to be an alarmist, but I completely agree.
1
The response of the Chinese authorities to this epidemic raise a serious question. Let’s just say theoretically, although not entirely unlikely, that a Chinese scientist alters the genome of an insect. This insect then becomes a deadly poisonous version of its former self. How will the rest of the world be protected from this threat when during the early stages, when control and eradication could be possible, the government of China will jail and silence the scientific community which is sounding the alarm? That is why when I stay at a budget motel I check to see where the complementary toothpaste is made!
4
Epidemic will last until temperature rises. So most likely another 4 to 8 weeks. You can always go back after it is brought under control so just take a flight.
8
@Ralph Petrillo
Its 42 degrees in Wuhan...and since when did the local weather ever control an epidemic? People get sick in the warmer climes to! And who knows if the hotter and muggy weather doesn't make the virus a bigger problem? Morph it...
1
If you are a manger at a western company with Chinese employees you will loose their respect. After you come back, your relationship to them will not be the same. Better for your company to send a replacement afterwards.
2
The question about risk from travel would be to ask yourself how well you could protect yourself in flight. Those common masks won't cut it. If you could be as strict as a surgeon about hand-washing, not touch your face, bring your own cutlery and/or beverages and food, and get a virus-blocking mask, I'd say leave.
Then, please be a good citizen of the world and quarantine yourself for two weeks once you arrive somewhere else.
If my family learned anything in WWII, it was to run while you still can.
Which explains my expat status as well.
45
My wife, my 3 children and I live in Dalian, China on a long term work assignment. We are all US citizens. We were out of the country in Tokyo during Lunar New Year when we found out our children's school was canceled until (at least) March, so we decided to stay in Tokyo for a few more days to see how the situation progressed.
We were trying to decide whether to go back to China or not, as we have not been formally evacuated by my company, but the deciding factor for returning to Dalian or not was medical/emergency care. There are no "tier-one" hospitals in Dalian, so when we need medical care, we fly to Seoul or Tokyo. However, if there is a ban from entering Japan/Korea from China, we have nowhere to go in an emergency. So we are heading back to the USA. I also feel somewhat guilty for being in a privileged position where we can choose to stay or go, so I understand the mixed feelings of the author of this article.
72
Thank you, Ms. Huang, for sharing some of your personal experience. The world is following what's happening and gratefully, experts in America and in other countries are assembling to come to China to help address this crisis.
10
Frankie, my simple answer: LEAVE. The epidemic will likely drag on for months, you just can't survive by cooping up in your little cocoon and ordering delivery for every basic provisions. The authority is not trustworthy and the spread of the epidemic will get worse before it gets better. So why wait? Book the next flight out, change your pajamas, pack up and leave while you can. Lamenting all those sorrows won't solve your problem. By the way, don't get too obsessed about the mortality rate, it's only a reference--be it at 2.1% or 4.8%, the real danger is there.
29
This version of the coronavirus is highly contagious with some epidemiologists believing it has a R naught value close to 4 - meaning highly contagious. I think the Chinese government made the unprecedented decision to quarantine over 60 million people because they knew how highly contagious the virus is- much more virulent than the flu but less than the measles. I’m thinking it’s probably more likely than not the virus will get to Shanghai and into your neighborhood. The question I would be asking is how safe do you feel in your high-rise building from contracting the virus if your neighbors start to get infected. One thing to look at is if your building uses common air ducts for ventilation that feeds the apartments - sometimes used in some high-rise buildings. The air then gets recycled through common air ducts which makes the transmission of the virus much easier. Also given the population of Shanghai there would be limited availability of the more novel medications now being considered for use in the most severe patients. You’re safer option would be to come back to United States if you’re able to travel- and wait it out for two months or so- and even if you have to live with your in-laws.
37
@Craig Lieberman
My first thought based on my former apartment in a high rise that recirculated the air throughout its 68 stories. We found out when a resident was exposed to one of the untreatable TB strains. This is against code in some locals. Then the exposed person got it from a major hospital where he worked that had recirculated air. Not good. How that happened at the hospital (a major one) was interesting.
2
Hello! American in Beijing right now with my husband. We have decided to stay put as our dog needs us and we would not want to put the burden of taking care of our dog on anyone else right now. Also, we would not want to risk exposing anyone in the states as there seems to be quite a few people who are afraid of the unknown. We are looking forward to the day when we can have some normalcy again but we have to continue to remind ourselves that there are worse situations out there and to count our blessings. Please keep all of us in your thoughts and prayers.
60
You are in my thoughts, but jeez, you’re staying because of the dog!?
“Adjusted priorities ahead.”
2
@Cynthia Pham if I were there w/ my dogs I’d stay too. My babies
4
I have a job in China but I left. Easy decision because as an ESL teacher I had two months holiday and was out before the virus was even discussed. I have no idea when I will go back.
Staying or leaving is a hard decision. For all, there is the costs of a flight, abandonment of possessions or continuing rent payments. Many could lose a business they have built up over years or lose a job. Coming back home could mean paying for a hotel for months while trying to find a new job. It is not just a quick trip to the airport.
Staying in China though without a useful purpose feels like being a burden. I struggle in the Chinese health system in normal times and can't imagine how I would fare without fluency in the overcrowding of an epidemic.
32
I live in Zhengzhou, in a huge apartment complex, with 8 towers. All the entrances are locked except the main one, where there are two police officers. You now have to have a government ticket residence there to leave or enter. I got mine this morning. I needed to go out to get bottled water and food. You can only go out and come back between 9am and 12pm.
Zhengzhou is huge, and I live downtown on the biggest street. Everyone is closed except for one supermarket in my neighborhood, so this morning it was really crowded. Last week I would go at 5am, when no one was there.
Really, all there is to do is stay home, wash your hands a lot, and hope for the storm to pass. I should say people at the store were really polite and calm.
I should note I check Google a lot and there is no reporting on any cases in Zhengzhou, or none that I can find. Of course, I check daily.
32
@David: hoping and checking google... you're kidding, right?
1
I enjoyed your article. I too, am here with my family. I have also been in wechat groups with many others staying - and there are a huge variety of reasons that people have - all of them good reasons and all very personal. For us, we have a visa thing that needs to be sorted first, but in addition to that, we've lived here for 6 years. The thought of just leaving our home, our belongings, our community, our jobs, indefinitely seems like a kind of crazy thing to do, especially when you're in a city where the cases of the virus are so low - for now. The thought of carting my two kids (4 and 5 years old) on a 14 hour flight to the US and stay with our elderly family - and risk bringing the virus with us - or staying in a hotel indefinitely somewhere racking up a bill (especially with a 14 day quarantine on top of it), does not sound appealing. But of course, I worry too, and we may change our minds once we get the logistics of the visas sorted out. Hang in there!
30
I live in Zhengzhou, in a huge apartment complex, with 8 towers. All the entrances are locked except the main one, where there are two police officers. You have to have a government ticket residence there to leave or enter. I got mine this morning. I needed to go out to get bottled water and food. You can only go out and come back between 9am and 12pm.
Zhengzhou is huge, and I live downtown on the biggest street. Everyone is closed except for one supermarket in my neighborhood, so this morning it was really crowded. Last week I would go at 5am, when no one was there.
Really, all there is to do is stay home, wash your hands a lot, and hope for the storm to pass. I should say people at the store were really polite and calm.
8
This article and the comments to it has truely lifted my feelings. I'm a Japanese mom whose 37-year-old son had come back from Shanghai last week but will go back again next Monday. He works for a Jap firm with over 100 Chinese employees. Business will probably not resume but he is going back with suitcases and bags filled with face masks. There is also a demand for smaller ones to fit ladies and small children. Sending them by mail or delivery is hopeless. A few boxes of masks would not make much difference, but he needs to tell his coworkers he cares for them. I just pray for his safety.
94
God be with your son and you.
5
@Mom I'm very touched by this, thank you so much for sharing.
1
Point of information - I understand there is a habit of people spitting in public in Chinese cities. Is there any indication that this practice has furthered the spread of the virus, among other means of transmission?
15
Good point . I had forgotten about that custom. So much to change in so little time.
4
Not to presume, and I'm certainly not poking fun, but I'll bet there are a lot of Times readers who would love to spend their days lounging in pajamas, having groceries delivered.
If only there were a way of making money at it.
11
Good for a few days at most. Also, less fun when it is because of an epidemic.
27
@Hunter S.
And here I was, endeavoring to make a lighthearted comment.
2
There are good reasons to stay or go, but if you base your decision on health risks, it is essential that the reported figures be reliable. Authoritarian regimes default to obfuscation on minor matters because secrecy is essential to controlling the levers of society. Investors, scientists, diplomats and others may choose to believe data the Chinese government offers in their respective fields of interest, but the risk of relying on epidemiological data in the midst of a an epidemic is too high.
7
"Authoritarian regimes default to obfuscation on minor matters because secrecy is essential to controlling the levers of society. "
Yes, that is a good point. But if & when it hits America (if hard), do you think it will be very much different ? Especially if you take a look at America;s current regime and the ridiculous way "news" spreads here (Facebook/Twitter/Etc)? I almost dread what will happen here to our society as much as I fear the disease.
6
I am scared to death of the spread of this virus. People of my age (post mid 70s) simply do not have the defenses to survive. Yet we are among the most productive in the intellectual world. I'm working on my third book, this time about how the warming climate has adversely impacted the 2nd largest stratovolcano in the Cascades—Mount Adams in southern Washington State.
Darryl Lloyd
26
@Darryl Lloyd
Seems to me that if you made to the late-70s, your immune system is probably more resilient than you may think.
7
@Darryl Lloyd
Thanks for mentioning Mount Adams, one of the five volcanos visible from Portland. I just googled the issue of global warming effect on the mountain, and see that indeed it's quite dramatic. You're fortunate to have such interesting work, and to do it from the wonderful little town of Hood River.
6
Chinese people have gotten used to managed existence; a bargain where they follow the rules and the leaders provide safety, financial and food security. The system has been working so far due to good growth rates and the communist party's muscle flexing and hard bargaining to accumulate from the global marketplace. The virus has brought the place to a stand still and is testing the system as people expect the virus to be booted out. This expectation may be a monster that may eat up the master if the virus goes on for a long time.
9
@AKA - At the moment the official confirmed cases outside Wuhan are doubling every 6 days [https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1224692813251534849]. Of course that might just be limited by the number of tests that can be performed, so it could be greater.
At that rate saturation occurs in about 6 mos, (1.4 billion log 2 is about 30, and 6*30 is 6 mos). Herd immunity will reach effective levels before 100%.
So I don't think it can drag on that long. If the spread is lessened it may be eradicated like SARS. If it stays the same then it is over in 5 to 8 mos, when business will go back to usual with the immune herd.
2
Chinese government should do far more to shut down wild animal meat markets - source of coronavirus - and educate their people out of beliefs that eating wolf puppies, pangolins, cats etc will enhance “virility” and “longevity.” China’s adherence to such myths will kill them. And everyone else.
6
This couple should be aware that if they do leave, they will be quarantined on some USAF base for at least two weeks with others who may have been exposed. I’m not sure what I’d do. But I’d probably leave. Ms Huang is right that if the infrastructure goes, she and her husband could be caught in a real-life horror show. Yeah. I’d leave.
35
@Anonymous Except that it's likely virus' spread will take place in the U.S. as well, just delayed a couple of months. You can run, but you can't hide, if you want to live something that resembles a normal life.
7
@Anonymous - Getting it early is probably the only to guarantee a hospital bed with full health care, and if you are on the verge of death, possibly even a dose of the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir that saved the first patient treated in the US.
6
I do not agree with you that the virus will spread the same in the United States as many measures have been put into place unlike how the Chinese regime hid the truth and missed their opportunity to stem this pandemic. I think Americans should leave as China hides the truth and does not have its citizens best interests in mind.
2
I honestly feel for you and pray this ends soon.
But my real question is: why weren’t you writing op/ed columns about open air live animal markets before this outbreak? The hideous animal cruelty and health risks to the rest of the world posed by these inhuman practices surely outweigh the cultural practiceof eating snakes (linked by scientists to this outbreak)and domesticated dogs. Enough is enough.
40
More than “enough is enough”. Was always too much and an outrage of indulgence, wanton cruelty, and delusion.
3
@Conservative Democrat: these markets are not so common and people don’t eat bats in mainland China. The Chinese government has actually tried to limit or stop the trade of wild animals. If you search the South China Morning Post you will find an article in English on the topic.
So, will you be encouraging limits on eating wild animals in the US as well (wild game meat)? No more moose or deer, no more squirrel in the Appalachians...
3
@ Conservative Democrat: Oh... and eating snakes is not related to this outbreak. Your information is out of date. In fact, the first cases may not have had any connection with this market anyway, according to the latest evidence.
1
My spouse and I and our two children live in Shanghai. There is no lockdown here. You are free to venture out as far and often as you see appropriate. There are relatively very few cases of infection, considering how massive the city is. Many people, including us, prudently minimize time at crowded indoor spaces, but a walk around the neighborhood or to a nearby park is perfectly safe. Sunshine, (relatively) fresh air and exercise are key inputs to staying healthy, and do wonders for one's mood and outlook.
63
@Michael Vito Same here in Guangzhou...no lock down and you can go out anytime you want, just wear a mask. You will have your temperature taken wherever you go but that's no big deal. A few infections for sure but out of 16 mil population, it's minuscule. Stay out of crowds altogether, wash you hands and stay home as much as possible until infections starts to subside. Some of the comments that recommend leaving seemed to be based on apocalyptic scenarios. Walked along the river last night with lots of other locals and it was nice to get outside. Lets hope we're right.
6
@Canton Kev Can I ask you...what if someone had a cold and a slight fever? Would you simply be refused entry to an establishment? I pity the person who ends up with the flu, and the worry it will cause them. May you stay safe and healthy.
I am in Beijing and reluctantly leaving for the UK this morning. (8th Feb). Leaving behind friends and colleuagues is not easy and to see the effects of the virus on the economy and people' lives is stunning.
My choice to leave comes from an awareness that, should I become ill and, therefore confined / isolated, I could rely on getting the resources I would need (Food and meds getting delivered) compared to how locals would have family to support them.
As for the virus itself, I honestly do not fear that any more than I would flu or pneumonia; both of which I have had, and recovered from.
My heart goes out to all those living in fear and isolation in China and I hope to be back in China at the next available opportunity.
52
One way to analyze stay-versus-leave is to ask how risky it is for someone outside China to go to China, or for someone in China outside Hubei to go to Hubei.
Going to Hubei sounds like a terrible idea; going to China sounds like a very bad idea.
Then one might identify and analyze the risks associated with leaving Hubei and China. Might one be stranded on the way out of Hubei/China? Might one catch the disease on the way out and be quarantined or hospitalized? If traveling with family, what happens if one member comes down with coronavirus? What if various forms of international transportation will no longer accept passengers with passports from China, as has just happened with Princess Cruise Lines, and may happen with some airlines? What if certain destinations are no longer open to Chinese?
Perhaps some NYT readers are already working on a risk-assessment algorithm to deal with such decisions and can share their wisdom by commenting here, or by cooperating with NYT writers in preparing an article.
Deciding whether to leave or stay is an intensely personal process, informed by often sketchy information. Based on living and traveling in third-world countries, my experience has been that it is better to leave before conditions deteriorate and threats to life and limb increase to levels that local and national governments are unable to manage.
For me the fact that the US Embassy and most US nationals have been evacuated is a pretty good sign that it’s time to go.
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You are young and healthy, however, consider what will happen to the medical system if cases in Shanghai increase to hundreds or thousands, fear takes over, hospitals are flooded and there is no oxygen or medically supportive care. Then, as the epidemic increases, food becomes scarce.
I would leave ASAP. You are the lucky ones. My heart breaks for anyone who cannot get out.
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@Hmmm
There are but 281 cases of the coronavirus in Shanghai, city of 24 million. Only 1 death. Yesterday, only 4 new cases were detected.
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@Jason So the 281 cases in Shanghai, would that figure be from the Chinese government? Do you trust that number? The government's first priority is saving face, truth would ruin all that.
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But the Chinese Government does not tell you the truth when they say there are only 4 new cases. Get out as fast as you can!
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Incredible column. The inevitable argument in dire conditions-i.e. keep moving or huddle down. (Sounds eerily like an argument from WWZ.) But in any calamity (war, pestilence, natural disaster), people are moving. China was experiencing capital flight before Wuhan. Undoubtedly it is continuing. So the obvious questions. Who is moving (if anyone), where are they going and why? Follow the wealth and power, and those that have it, in their private decisions. It usually provides a significant amount of answers to questions.
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"The virus is very good at math." Indeed, I have thought the same thing. The numbers they are reporting do not add up; I think they know that if they report a worsening fatality rate, their ability to control the situation will spiral rapidly out of control. A virus that kills 2 out of 100 feels very different than one that kills, say, 20 or 30. Who knows what the truth is; we won't know until free countries begin to truly learn about the virus.
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@purpledog
Your comment presumes that Chinese authorities are not being truthful about infection rates/deaths from the Coronavirus, and that if the true numbers were revealed, "their ability to control the situation will rapidly spiral out of control."
Actually, isn't it the other way around? Couldn't it be argued that a revelation of more harrowing numbers---20 or 30 deaths per 100 rather than the present 2 or 3----might be just the thing to shake people out of their complacency?
As with the author of this story, more daunting statistics would firmly answer the question, 'Do we go, or do we stay'.
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What complacency? People across China are living like the author, hunkered down and avoiding contact as much as their circumstances allow. There’s no complacency.
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I would leave if you can. If things get worse you might reach the point where you no longer have the luxury of choice, and an easy exit may no longer be available.
I'm on the other side of the planet with well stocked emergency supplies and I'm still nervous about what might happen if things get worse.
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@R am curious...what makes up your emergency supplies ?
Should one of them fall ill, they will be draining resources from an already overwhelmed healthcare system.
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I would recommend that you depart now, before the United States closes its borders to people coming from China, or before China closes its borders like in the olden days of the Maoists. The first would be done to protect Americans; the second to protect China's potential for rejoining the world community after this public health, governmental, and cultural debacle. May the virus mutate in a good direction, and not a deadlier one.
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Talk to anyone who has lived through the Cultural Revolution, as I have, and you will have no illusions about what the Chinese government is capable of doing to its own Han population, much less the Tibetans or the Uighurs.
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Having lived in Beijing I wouldn’t trust any info from the government any more than I could pick up and throw one cadre.
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I am an American, retired teacher. I am married to a Chinese national so I spend half the year or more here in Nanning Guangxi Province.
The streets are deserted, all schools and many businesses are closed. I wonder how long some of these establishments can hold out with no income. The restaurant industry has been annihalated. Who in their right mind will eat food prepared by strangers? For the vast number of retail establishments the business model is foot traffic. Will people pay tuition to closed schools? Is a collapse of the Chinese economy a possibility?
Apparently, face masks are now mandatory but none can be had so I have been making my own. 1.3 billion masks per day are required in all of China.
I intend to wait it out. The alternative that awaits is, like the author said, being cooped up in a closed space with strangers for half a day and not knowing what awaits me on the other end. Can I even get out if wanted to? First I would have to fly from Nanning to Shanghai or Beijing. The Chinese airline industry is not dependable right now. Besides, I will not run out on my wife.
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This sounds like a tough call. If you look at it from other outbreaks like SARS and the Avian flu, chances are that this will too pass. Is this the Spanish flu? Probably not since the cases outside the region are low. But if it were the Spanish flu, then it doesn't sound like anybody will be safe regardless of where we try to hide. It sounds like you are doing the correct thing rather than getting on a plane and taking more chances with a long flight. Plus as you said, you are young and healthy. So it appears that your risk is lower compared to others. That being said, you are brave and you should do what feels right. I know that as a parent, I would want you home yesterday. Good luck and let's hope this is contained soon. I am so sorry for you all others who are going through this.
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Spanish flu killed mostly young adults, so not necessarily safe. Were I there, I'd try and find a safe way out of the country. Health workers in hazmat suits and quarantines that will damage the economy as well as lives tell a different story than the official statistics.
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A thoughtful article about being (relatively) privileged in stressful times.
The author notes that "we plebes are not privy to the whole truth." However, I'm pretty sure that if one lives on the 23rd floor of a luxury building, have all one's meals delivered by nameless worker bees, and hold U.S. passports, one is not exactly a plebeian.
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I don’t think the author is referring to Western notions of class here (plebes and aristocrats) but is instead referring to being a common citizen vs a party boss.
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@Reader I agree with your response.
I agree with the author’s fears and thoughts however they seem disingenuous. The author is an American citizen who moved to China after college to pursue career and financial gain. She then married an American citizen and decided to stay in China to pursue a career.
Most of her articles pan handle to the Western media because she claims to be a Chinese expert. Of course the Chinese government is lying! But I can’t stand it when someone who clearly has used and benefited from a country tries to use her “expertise” for a diversity NYT opinion article.
Those who are truly Chinese do not have an escape plan. They do not have an American passport. The author pontificates but rarely sacrifices her espresso (so go speak). Unlike her Chinese patriot counterparts who are dying or risk being arrested, she has an option and always will have options.
As a Chinese American reading this article, I become angry because her article is furthering her own financial and egotistical capital. I didn’t go back to China for precisely the same reasons she is implying even though there was more gain. I don’t use a country for gain just to criticize it when it’s useful.
The Chinese government will over inflate their successful and minimize their damages as they have always done. But for me this NYT article should be written by someone Chinese and not someone (also based on her prior articles) who sees herself as better than her subject matter.
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@Reader Everyone's meals are being delivered (I know because I'm here in Shanghai as well) and I don't think there was mention of "luxury".
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I'm pretty sure I would stay - being much more scared of flying and then spending weeks on a US military base (now required) than being in my comfy Shanghai high-rise with delivery (not fair). But that's maybe denial and naivete. One must also consider that the death rate is likely around 2-3%, so there's a very high survival rate. Though I'm not sure whether that points to staying or going...…
Very tough call
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@EMH Two weeks' quarantine on a military base is only required for people coming from Wuhan and Hubei on the government's evacuation flights. People flying on commercial airlines from China to the US only have to fly in to certain approved ports of entry (I think there are 11) and then self-quarantine for two weeks.
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The quarantined evacuees who flew into Travis are actually in a hotel near the base. All except for the five who have developed symptoms and were moved to a hospital.
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@EMH One of the points this author is making is that you cannot trust the statistics. We have no idea what the death rate really is.
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Wonderful essay; thanks. 'Hang in there' is my suggestion. My spouse and I--and our 11-month-old baby--were in Taichung, Taiwan, during the SARS outbreak in 2003. We, too, felt anxious as the situation worsened, but decided to stick it out. Taiwan is not the PRC, of course, and there are important differences in the reliability of the news about the spread of the virus, but it's the virus that'll git ya, and so far the virus doesn't seem to be coming for young, healthy people like you and your spouse. Know that your compatriots back in Mei-guo are thinking about you, and maybe stock up a bit more on fresh water? No sense in upending your lives for this; it'll pass when the weather warms.
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I don’t know why you think the virus is not coming for the young and healthy. The Doctor who first discovered the virus and tried to get out the alert of a pandemic just died. And he knew what precautions to take.
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Sounds like incipient cabin fever to me. I live in Shanghai, too. Get outside and go for a walk. There’s little to fear and you’ll feel much better. This too, shall pass.
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@Thomas Caron I'm here in Shanghai as well. It does sound like a bit of cabin fever.
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What struck me was the reference to possible shortages. If that's the case, doesn't it seem right that any healthy people who have the option to leave do so, so as to leave all possible resources for those who can't?
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Traveling would make them less safe at this point, and they would potentially add to the list of those in need of medical care.
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@Bay Area Mom
I appreciate your appeal to selflessness. Surely, resources for the tens of millions quarantined are becoming more and more difficult to procure. What about all those Chinese people who are being forced to relocate to warehouses by force, and the countless millions who seek medical care, testing or non related treatment - yet are endangered by the overwhelmed medical system. Yes, indeed. Leave for the sake of others.
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I understand the fear of the author. It doesn't make sense given the numbers we are hearing, but can we trust the CPC's numbers? I would be scared too.
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I agree; traveling is the danger. Or, to be more blunt, being around a mass of people is the true danger.
Of course, being around a mass of people is always a potential danger, so go figure.
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The author captured my mood, even though I am 12 time zones away. I’m waiting for news about when the Spring semester will start and I will return to China... the city I teach in is far from Hubei, we lived on the outskirts of the city in a closed campus setting. My family wants me to stay, safe in Canada... but I enjoy my job, my colleagues, my students and the joys of discovery living in China. I relate to the author’s suspended animation... I thought I would be home a few weeks and wouldn’t need to get used to the cold... only bought a dozen eggs, a small coconut milk for my coffee. Now I try to walk in the cold each day, reconnect with friends, volunteered for a political campaign, working on a paper, editing others... I’m keeping busy.
With more unknowns and rumours than knowns and facts makes life very strange. A colleague is in Wuhan, I’m keeping his one kg of timbits cereal safe... I can only imagine the hardship, his descriptions are understated. I see his posts at 5 am on wechat, I know he feels helpless. I want to do something, but what? Buy masks to send? Send sanitizer? Maybe I should send the cereal...
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@Connie Soap is much better than hand sanitizer, by the way. I was surprised to learn this recently. It's not important when it comes to your comment, but I figured it is valuable to get this information out there whenever possible. Hand sanitizer should only be used when it is not possible to wash with soap and water.
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@not nearsighted I will bring more soap then when I return... (I’m actually not a hand sanitizer user usually, but I heard there are mass shortages). Thank you for your information.
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@not nearsighted The NYT has multiple articles about hand sanitizers and as long as the alcohol content is between 60 and 95 percent then they are just as effective as hospital grade antimicrobial soap. If they weren't effective then hospitals wouldn't have gel dispensers hanging off of just about every wall and placed prominently on every nurses station. As long as your hands aren't heavily soiled they are the way to go.
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Wishing you safety. Having spent some time in China, I think it is one of the most amazing countries on earth. It's just so sad that the government filters news to its people and comes down so hard on those who speak out or seek information. It's not necessary for the government to exert such control over information when Chinese patriotism is so high. Blocking access to information does not correlate with patriotism. In this case the lack of information and government control has proven harmful to put it mildly.
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@Jamie Given how the Chinese public might respond to news, I think limiting information in some cases can be useful. Rumors of a salt shortage years back led to a run on the stores. Too, there have been runs on the pharmacies recently and face masks were hoarded by the few. I was in Guiyang a few weeks back and there were no face masks in the whole city. Same here in Shanghai. It's a balancing act, I think, of how much information is healthy.
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@Jamie - we have that same information system in this country. FOX network and hate radio filter all so-called news and only broadcast what information suits their causes. To top it all off we have a prez that ruins people careers with public lies because they testified the truth.
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This reads like dystopian fiction, but is real life.
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My wife is in the Southern City of Nanning (pop- 5 million) located in Guangxi Autonomous Region.
My wife reports that the city buses and taxis are no longer running due to the virus.
Face masks are rationed to just 3 masks and you have to wait in line for over an hour to get them .
My wife also reports Nanning Police are ordering people back to their homes if they are not wearing face masks.
The only time she goes out is to buy food from a local market. Otherwise the family stays home .
I wanted to send her boxes of face masks, but with Chinese customs working at a snails pace . It could take over a month. Then there’s the problem of theft. Due to the current high demand for face masks.
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This article is very affecting. My heart seemed to rise to my throat and ended in my gut. Thank you.
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It is telling that this couple is able to stay in their homes, safe from the virus, but they still rely on couriers to deliver their food and other basic needs. These couriers puts themselves at risk of infection because they can't afford to stop working. What a stark reminder that when epidemics, natural disasters, and the worst of climate change come our way, it is the working class who suffers most.
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@Elizabeth I think you've kind of missed the point. It's not just "this couple" staying in their homes, nearly every one is. The delivery system is established by each apartment complex (which function democratically with votes from building residents). At my complex, the deliveries are left at the gate and we walk to pick them up (and have our temperature checked each time). Your message is a "stark reminder" of something for me as well: the assumptions of the ill-informed. Would you recommend that all 23 million+ people in Shanghai go out to the grocery store? Would that be your plan? Please, share your sympathies, not your grievances.
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@Elizabeth
One way to analyze stay-versus-leave is to ask how risky it is for someone outside China to go to China, or for someone in China outside Hubei to go to Hubei.
Going to Hubei sounds like a terrible idea; going to China sounds like a very bad idea.
Then one might identify and analyze the risks associated with leaving Hubei and China. Might one be stranded on the way out of Hubei/China? Might one catch the disease on the way out and be quarantined or hospitalized? If traveling with family, what happens if one member comes down with coronavirus? What if various forms of international transportation will no longer accept passengers with passports from China, as has just happened with Princess Cruise Lines, and may happen with some airlines? What if certain destinations are no longer open to Chinese?
Perhaps some NYT readers are already working on a risk-assessment algorithm to deal with such decisions and can share their wisdom by commenting here, or by cooperating with NYT writers in preparing an article.
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@Mark
I take issue with your chastising this commenter while ignoring her point. The working class does take the harder hit, and regardless of how admirably well-organized is your luxury high-rise, the point still stands that those less fortunate are roaming the streets confronting the epidemic.
To recap, the point of her comment was that economic inequality determines your risk of disease, not whether your luxury high-rise is democratically administered or if its comfy residents are remaining at home by choice.
15
From Taiwan News comes a secretly filmed video from inside the much vaunted 1000 patient hospitals that were stood up in only ten days. These were meant to showcase how fast the CCP could react to the crises in a way that the West could not. The "hospital" rooms don't have electrical outlets or oxygen lines, have bars on the windows and their doors have locks on the exterior that can only be opened from the outside. It is surmised that these already built prefabricated building were meant for the internment camps of Xinjiang where over one million Uyghurs are being held in prison like conditions. The contractor making the video can be heard saying "Once you get in, you can't get out."
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@Patrick From Taiwan News we also get a statistic of 4.9% death rate based on a government official who cannot provide further details. This candid assertion, if true, revals that the mathematically impeccable death rates being reported are fiction. This by itself is not necessarily a reason for leaving, for SARS had an even higher death rate. The missing number is the total cases and the velocity at which they are growing.
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