Maybe stocks are tanking today, not just due to the virus, but also the spectacle of Senate Republicans endorsing corruption and abuse of power in the White House and nullifying the impeachment clause of the Constitution. It bodes ill for the future of our country which, until now, was viewed as governed by the rule of law and Constitutional checks and balances on executive power. No more.
47
Very glad to know my American citizenship confers magical immunological powers preventing me from carrying or spreading viruses.
Having been on the phone with MGH infectious disease several times this week and with our pediatrician who spoke with the Massachusetts director of HHS this morning, the actual science-based medical protocol is that individuals who have not been in contact with anyone infected with the Coronovirus and who has not visited Hubei in the past 14 days and who is asymptomatic present a negligible health risk to the general population and are cleared to mingle among us.
The HHS policy announced this afternoon is pure politics designed to further demonize non-Americans.
My heart goes out to anyone of Asian heritage who faces discrimination or harassment exacerbated by this policy. I also feel for all the the visa and green card holders who visited China for work, or study or to see Chinese New Year. You're not welcome in Azar/Trump/Republican America! Employers, schools, you should hire/admit Americans in the future and you won't have this problem!
7
@Shocked
The extensive report I read indicated that Americans will be subject to quarantine as well. Not just Asians.
I quote:
"Americans returning to the United States who have been in China's Hubei province within 14 days will face a mandatory quarantine. Americans returning to the United States from other parts of China will face enhanced screening and a self-quarantine of up to 14 day!"
12
@Shocked
Actually, the restrictions being put in place applies to US Citizens as well.
11
Well, if you don’t believe HHS and WHO then do your own research. Plenty of universities have excellent data sets that are updated in real time. This is not about being xenophobic, it’s about taking precautions.
6
Can you please just say the White House and/or federal government, in place of and/or rather than the “Trump administration” or the “Trump White House” in reporting? The despair of associating “him” and “his name” with this serious, real science scenario is anxiety-provoking. He and his capos getting involved will surely cause grave harm to us all.
18
Why is the Chinese official singling out the US as being unfriendly and unhelpful? Singapore and Mongolia have banned the Chinese from entry, the main airlines of the UK and Canada have ceased flights to and from China, and Russia has closed its border with China. What gives?
11
Panic much? I can't think of anything else meaningful to say...even if 1000 times the number of people reported "infected" were infected, this is a blip to anyone with a rational mind.
Anyways. My comment is based on the stock market headline. Which leads me to say...if for no other reason than to simply take care of your heirs...please try to just buy low on Monday...or if the panic continues, buy low next Monday, or the one after that. Maybe some good can come of this irrational fear-mongering.
Ciao!
7
For the record... during the 2017-2018 flu season in the United States alone... 80,000 people died. Generously assuming a flu season constitutes twelve months, that's 200+ deaths a day. Say it's less than twelve months and the daily death toll goes up.
So.. why the hullabaloo?
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
10
"As foreign governments evacuated their citizens from China this week, China said it was arranging chartered flights to bring Wuhan residents who were overseas back to the epicenter of the outbreak."
This made me sad. That they would have to go back there.
7
As a world and as a country we better get smart real soon, virus like Corona and SARS are warning signs. We better start getting ready and have a global strategy . Just as your body gives you plenty of warning signs when something is wrong, so does the world.
9
@Lonnie
I agree, the world is giving warning signs that there a just too many people!
I think the movie,'The Matrix' had it right when it was pointed out that people were the true virus on this planet!
3
Could it be the markets are down because Trump got a pass,
and the country is for sure stuck with him for almost another year.
8
Climate change isn’t responsible for this pandemic. China’s food practices and its treatment of animals that it consumes are.
16
@It isn't working
I feel that Climate Change plays a part!
7.8 Billion plus people and growing, loss of habitat, soil saltification of farmland, risk of commercial ocean fisheries extinction (which is different from extinction), more plastic in oceans that fish, Ocean acidification, changing weather patterns, loss of glaciers and polar ice caps... and more.
It adds up!
https://www.verywellhealth.com/understanding-a-pandemic-2615488
4
@Chris B: it isn’t morbid to think this way.
Life always got better—for those who survived—after a plague back in the Middle Ages. There was more available for everyone left behind, and the survivors were, of course, the hardiest. This is how nature had always maintained a healthy balance on the the planet. We've side-stepped the natural progression for far too long with these big brains of ours. But we weren’t smart enough to consider the consequences of our actions and inaction. Nature is having her way with us.
That's the way it's supposed to be, folks. There's far too many of us, and far too few of us have been wise enough to try and keep things in check. We've fouled our nest and have known we were doing so for a long time.
60
@Gerithegreek518 While I totally agree that we need to take better care of our planet I must point out the pandemics don't always take out the weakest and leave the hardiest.
The 1918 flu epidemic hurt the youngest and hardiest first. Infants and seniors were generally spared the most. It was the 20-35 set that suffered the most damage.
25
No one really knows what impact those who does could have had on the world - how many captains of industry, great authors, thinkers and scientists may have changed the course of humanity if they didn’t suffer to the RANDOMNESS of contracting plague. Humans have evolved because they were ABOVE survival of the fittest - that’s why humanity has progressed as far as it has ...
8
@Arblot: you think—in the big picture, universal way of thinking—that what we have now is progress? Every human on Earth is contaminated with PFOA and PFOS from DuPont's Teflon and 3-M's Scotchgard in our water. Our atmosphere is polluted. The ground we grow our food in is contaminated. Because of overuse of antibiotics super-microbes resistant to our antibiotics and super-fungi are killing people, as well. This is all the result of our "progress." Trump is our president.
I fail to see the progress as I ponder what the meaning of life might be. I doubt that we were meant to make our planet incompatible with life itself. There has to be a more meaningful purpose to life.
4
Oh so Facebook actually does have the ability to police and squash conspiracy theories, disinformation and malinformation when Zuckerberg feels compelled to do so.
337
@Kate
Not really, but he always takes personal responsibility!
call me old-fashioned, but I don't use Facebook or just about any social media to get my facts.
BTW, I am not 25 years old or have Chris Hemsworth's physique
4
The article doesn’t specify when the foreigners-who-visited-China arrival ban begins. Does anyone have further info? Thank you.
@Nicolas Benjamin
February 2nd, 2020
On our border there are thousands of children being held in dog cages and they are already in dire straits.
Has anyone inquired what the game plan is if the Coronavirus gets in?
Did Trump have an answer? Did anyone?
7
.... how about worrying about American citizens and the children of American citizens first. THAT should be the first and foremost thought of the President of the United States. Bringing this other issue up is irrelevant where the health of our tax paying citizens is concerned.
8
@rosa They're safer in those cages than outside, don't you think?
1
Probably will be taken care of the same way incarcerated individuals are. My guess. Maybe they will call the embassy of their home country in efforts to get them repatriated—though many will probably decide to stay.
1
There are a number of ways of looking at this virus and its fatality rate. What can be said: It’s way too early for actual facts because there are so many unknowns!
If you take the number of confirmed infected and compare it to actual deaths, then the virus has about a 2% fatality rate. Currently, this isn’t a very accurate method!
If you take the number of people who were admitted into hospital, then the fatality rate is 20% (using the same standard for the current flu season gives us a 7% fatality rate.) The numbers are meaningless because people, who are dying, as a rule, had pre-existing medical conditions. It is also not that scientific!
What is certain: A large number of people developed pneumonia before dying. There is also preliminary evidence of a large number of Cytokines in the bodies of the victims.
So we have a virus that not much is known about, hard to detect without blood tests, possible transmission by people showing no symptoms, and victims with pre-existing medical conditions developing pneumonia.
Generally healthy people seem to fight off the disease. It's victims with compromised immune systems dying!
The important things include, getting updated on all recommended vaccinations, avoid touching your face and wash your hands frequently… oh, before I forget, ignore the people who claim you and everyone else is panicking – peoples actions is nothing like what movies, health officials or governments have predicted and feared!
3
People who don't take any sort of precaution whatsoever are the same people who think this is all a joke and laugh at memes about it, trying to be edgy. I was treated like an outcast today for wearing a face mask to university. Nobody else wears it but me and they immediatly assume I'm the one who's sick. Even if there's no confirmed coronavirus case in my state, it doesn't hurt to prepare for this deadly and highly contagious disease. As you pointed out, this new virus is spreading exponentially every day so there is no certainty of what's coming.
11
I would say not to vaccinate unnecessarily as it overwhelms your immune system. There are also vaccine reactions that will send you to the hospital—the place you last want to be at currently. My uncle was paralyzed from GB after a flu shot.
1
PLEASE focus some reporting on Vietnam.
only neighbour to China with zero border or flight restrictions to date
extraordinarily weak health systems
almost no ability to test using PCR/ cost of all testing (including CT scan and swab) high and will be passed to patient and simply discouraged by hospital administrators
extraordinarily high degree of government action to suppress negative news
currently a funnel for Chinese workers (10s of thousands) and vacationers (10s of thousands over Tet in each of the major tourist destinations such as Nha Trang)
very low hygiene standards
many wild and live animal markets
the risk to Vietnam and the world, by not shining the light immediately on Vietnam is significant
19
@AN
I would be more concerned if and when the Wuhan Pneumonia Virus takes off in India, Bangladesh or Africa.
If that were to happen, then I would start stocking up on food supplies and fuel.
4
@AN
I am more concerned about this taking off in India, Bangladesh or Africa than it hitting Vietnam!
1
Trump and those advising him are taking strong measures. That makes sense since the virus has now spread world-wide despite being encountered for the first time just two months ago. We have little idea of the likely course of this illness so we don't know what the future will bring. Yes, earlier action would be better. But be aware that when a very perceptive physician in China thought he was seeing an illness similar to SARS, he was accused of spreading false rumors and had to appear before the police. That was early December. The Chinese system is different. Valuable time was lost.
11
How does this impact Taiwanese citizens who wish to enter the U.S. in the near term?
1
@George Marks
Under President Carter, U.S. de-recognized Republic of China as "China" in 1979 and started referring to it as "Taiwan"
So the travel restriction should apply to Taiwan under the one China agreement!
Our whole family got the flu right after New Years. 103-5 fevers and bed for 3 days. Yesterday I was reading about this strain of the flu and that deaths in the US have already hit 8,000 from this single flu strain. The fact that Wuhan Corona virus is a WHO worldwide and US health emergency, when deaths in the 1.4 billion population epicenter are in the hundreds, with zero anywhere else, but flu vaccines are not mandatory are not facts that can be reconciled by any rational analysis. Not only are individual humans completely irrational but so are all the systems we have set up, which give us the false sense that there is rationality and order involved. Even a casual reading of all the stories in major news outlets make clear that panic and news sell, and FB an twitter thrive on viral memes, which thrive on emotion and exaggeration. If only they could figure out a way to turn the influenza each year into a panic like this one - the advertising revenue would be incredible. More importantly, many of those 8000 lives lost might be saved.
6
@Eb
Most people don't want to take personal responsibility or have the decency of being socially responsible by staying updated on all vaccinations, including flu and the two types of pneumonia vaccines.
At my age, I am current on all vaccines, including tetunus, Tdap, pneumonia - both versions, Shingles - both versions, Hepatitis A & B, plus the seasonal flu shot!
Our neighbor had a heart transplant, we have older neighbors, I have been in nursing homes during out breaks of preventable illness... and have come to the conclusion that there are a lot of selfish people out there who just don't care about their community!
Get vaccinated, wash your hands often!
3
The chart from “How Bad Will the Coronavirus” article comparing coronavirus to other diseases is misleading. By using the “log scale” for percentage of fatalities, the chart is visually misleading and looks far scarier than it is.
3
On 23 May the Trump administration released its hotly anticipated 2018 budget proposal. Entitled 'A New Foundation for American Greatness', the document sets out a radical, and oddly self-defeating, ‘America first’ agenda that has sweeping ramifications for global health.
The Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health (NIH), and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) face cuts of around 18%. Billions of dollars worth of prevention programmes are being replaced with a single $500m block grant.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5519106/
7
Something that is no more fatal than the flu is impacting the world? Wow. Fear and mongering and polarizing, and the death of common sense. Where is the responsible reporting?
5
Anyone under age 60 dying?
@Jake
Yes!
I could do some digging but last I checked, youngest was 36 years-old. Average age was 49, but that will likely change as more people become infected.
Youngest infected was 2 years old.
I suspect that pre-existing health conditions is a contributing factor to deaths. Diabetes, TB, COPD, Emphysema, Kidney Issues, Heart Issues... Things like that.
Most people seem to be dying from pneumonia and there have been indications of elevated cytokines - which may have played a part in the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic.
1
Trump made major cuts to CDC AGAIN for 2020 and more making Americans at risk for a public health emergency going forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/us-coronavirus-budget-cuts-trump-underprepared
11
@Jacquie
The single largest employer in the United States is the Government...
Our National Debt, not including unfunded liabilities is over 23 Trillion dollars. To pay off all the unfunded liabilities, including paying off the National Dept, plus repairing our roads, highways, Interstates, bridges, water/sewer, Air Traffic Control, airports, law enforcement, Medicaid/Medicare/National Healthcare and military would take at least 550 to 650 Trillion dollars.
Our country is bankrupt!
We don't even have enough billionaires to tax so all of this can be paid for!
3
Too much focus on stopping commercial flights. What about private jets? Plus the fact that china owns the pireaus port in greece, the gateway into europe. How is that being monitored? The greek government has sold its soul to china including golden visas. This will all come back to haunt them.
16
@A.L.
All private jets have to comply with the regulations!
@A.L.
The laws apply to private jets as well!
Here's the New England Journal of Medicine, Correspondence, Jan 30, for infection of 2019-nCoV: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468
Excerpt: "A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on January 24, 2020. The following day, a fever of 39.1°C (102.4°F) developed, along with a productive cough. By the evening of the next day, he started feeling better and went back to work on January 27."
The article is very short, written with little jargon, and might help lower the fear level.
6
Trump closed the offices that handled these situation last year. Fired all the experts. Our government is in disarray and we have a loose cannon at the helm. For Gods sake, he can't even handle the hurricane in Puerto Rico without making a mess of its recovery. I think this virus is going out of control and I think it is not going to be able to be stopped due to some political hack being placed in charge by Mr. Trump. Remember the "good job" Brownie was doing in New Orleans? We're there again.
13
Just read on another site that these hideously cruel open air ‘markets’ (now hidden) are still selling live deer, badgers, weasels, pheasants and other wild animals in Guangzhou, Xianning and other cities. If true, I would hope the authorities step in, rescue the animals and give the vendors a good lashing, force them to do volunteer work in the center of Wuhan or both.
11
Avoid getting sick in the airport. It is a 'terminal ' illness.
15
@Denuta too soon
2
While some of the airlines are, wisely, suspending service immediately, I'm utterly baffled why Delta and United are waiting to suspend service until Feb. 6.
Per the latest version of this article (read at 5:35 pm EST): "Delta said in a statement that its last flight to mainland China from the United States would depart on Monday, and that its last flight to the United States from mainland China would leave on Wednesday."
Please, please, please -- stop running these flights NOW. What's the point of running for another 5 days and *then* shutting down for a month or two? Better to stop NOW and see what happens. Given some time, this might burn itself out or prove to be no more harmful that the regular flu.
On the other hand, if this is pandemic on the verge of sweeping the globe, cutting off airline service *immediately* could slow -- or potentially even stop -- the spread.
3
Some of us need these flights and it could be that our lives depend on it. Imagine if you were in China about to leave and the airline cancelled all flights indefinitely?
3
@Rose
The disruption in air cargo will have unforeseen consequences!
2
Any day now I expect that someone will televise “The Stand”, “Outbreak”, and “I Am Legend”.
3
Utter panic and politicians who react to the panic with irrational measures that make the panic worse because it validates it.
3
Finally! Four weeks too late and too little (anyone inbound from China should be barred from entering the US), but they finally figured out that they have to close the borders. Better late than never.
10
"U.S. Temporarily Bars Foreigners Who Visited China"
It's hard to assume, given Trump's track record, that he and his administration will not use any excuse to block certain foreigners from entering the U.S., well founded or not.
4
Good start until we have more clarification as to the nature of the problem.
Also, I would also want to understand the situation
at the southern area who are staging for an attempted illegal crossing.
3
@DAWGPOUND HAR
Yes, was also thinking about the importance of a well controlled border. In this case, it's a logical point to prevent the spread of illness into the country.
2
Before going completely crazy I think a sober reassesment of the risk from the corona virus is in order.
Far more people die every year from the influenza every year and although a vaccine exists although not perfect, a large swath of the US choose to not get immunized. Critics may argue it is not as contagious or that the corona has a lot of unknowns but that does not change the bottom line of the mortality rate from other well known diseases. A certain hysteria doubtlessly fuelled by social media seems to be the order of the day.
15
I think you miss the point. Indeed millions of people do have the flu and some die, the ratio of victims for the coronavirus however is quite a bit higher. Which means that if the disease spreads widely, a lot of people will die and for now there’s no antidote. So yes, we are right to be very cautious. This has the potential for a major catastrophe, in particular if we don’t find a cure fast and the virus can mutate.
9
This is much ado about very little. Remember the SARS virus 'epidemic' that never happened? The percentage of infected people who've succumbed is far smaller than those infect with the influenza virus. Also, there are many, many different kinds of 'coronaviruses' and it's likely that we have many of them living within us already. It's simply a media-created epidemic. A few companies will make a lot of money by tapping the NIH for funds to make a vaccine. And the scare will have disappeared before the vaccine is developed. Just as with the SARS virus scare.
8
@Cynical We all hope this turns out to be a severe cold strain, more than anything, but it simply cannot be determined at this point. The numbers from China are clearly understated, both in total cases, as well as fatalities. The next couple of weeks should add clarity as people outside of China who have tested positive are treated in more favorable conditions. An article just come out from the New England Journal of Medicine about the WA patient - it seems he is well on the mend, but it took until day 9 of his illness before he developed pneumonia. So we do not yet know how those who have been diagnosed will recover and how quickly. Hopefully this is a less severe virus (though quite contagious), but we simply do not know yet.
13
SARS was brought under control by the heroic efforts of health workers to trace contacts and bring Ro under 1, so the virus could burn itself out. And SARS seemed transmissible mainly when patients were symptomatic. Yes there is plenty of hysteria right now, but comparisons with the flu are not completely correct. Yes numerically more people die of the flu, but that’s because there are hundreds of thousands of cases of flu. We’ve seen 10K cases of coronavirus, not hundreds of thousands. The number of cases and fatalities for coronavirus has doubled every two days between Jan 20 and Jan 30 in China. Some of it is better surveillance and reporting. So yeah, it’s not Contagion. But it’s not something to dismiss as less worrisome than the flu, either.
10
You don't feel a thing only because SARS didn't affect the US. Ask a Canadian and you'll get a different answer.
5
While watching federal health officials making their announcement today, I couldn't help but wonder if what we were hearing is accurate. Ever since Trump became president, it's been impossible to be sure any statements by federal employee are true. You can be sure that if Trump has a personal interest in any aspect of the situation he will try to put his thumb on the scale. Any thoughts about whether he is doing so in this case?
18
@Greg:
Trump is too ignorant about science to put his thumb on the scale in this case.
On the other hand, one of his minions, Wilbur Ross, has already come out and said that a pandemic would be good for the U.S. economy, so there's that!
Can't make this stuff up.
4
@ Gregg, couldn’t agree more. You can’t trust anything this administration says. They lie about everything. I suggest believing the opposite of whatever they say.
2
Quarantines and travel bans are not used more commonly at the onset of epidemics, when they can do the most good. This is because of fear of economic losses and reluctance to curtail individual freedoms. So we wait instead till its too late and then panic when it won't do much good at all.
Money is of no use to the dead. Freedoms aren't of much use to them either. Staying alive is more important. Early quarantines and travel restrictions should be the standard response in the first few days of any new outbreak, no matter where it happens. Spreading disease is not a fundamental human right. Neither is international tourism.
35
Somewhat of an aside -- for now -- but what exactly are they spraying everywhere to disinfect planes and now streets?
Disinfecting streets? I didn't know that was a thing.
7
That graph is about as clear to read as EEG patterns on someone having a seizure. Someone is having fun with their graphics tool, but has no clue how it will read to the general public.
14
Don't tempt Trump to get out his Sharpie.
2
Sweden also has confirmed patients with corona virus in the city of Jönköping today, Friday.
9
I really hope and pray that President Trump and many in his cabinet, especially Wilber (you can call me Wilber) Ross, take this crisis seriously and immediately get on a plane and go to Wuhan, China to get a first hand account of the situation.
41
@Jpkelly The Democrats are far more competent to assess the situation. Pelosi should lead a fact finding mission at the Wuhan market.
3
@Ronald Weinstein such quick wit
I wish we had a real President and a real Administration at a time like this. Instead we have the washings from the live-animal markets. I'm not being funny. I'm expressing bitterness and foreboding about going into this crisis without intelligence, empathy or leadership in the White House, Cabinet or Senate, or in many of the states. These guys will only care about their stocks and their hotel receipts.
35
Putting the Americans who just returned from Wuhan into quarantine is totally the right thing to do. I wonder why they couldn't decide on that sooner. I am glad also that American, United and Delta Airlines have decided to stop all flights from China.
While this virus is not deadly like Ebola, it has shown itself to be very contagious and have killed immune compromised people; and being a new unknown virus, we really do not moving forward how it will behave and therefore its eventual virulence.
A temporary stoppage of flow of people out of an epidemic zone is prudent and reasonable measure to protect the larger population and has nothing to do with discrimination or being "mean."
26
Influenza kills hundreds of thousands of people per year globally. The corona virus hasn’t even killed 200 people yet. Why cancel flights and put people in quarantine for a virus that’s far less problematic than influenza? It’s a classic case of a ridiculous amount of an ‘abundance of caution.’ It would be laughable except that the reactions to the virus will hurt more people than the virus itself. Economic loss, shortages, and ruined trips/vacations will all be a result of this overreaction. But it sells a lot of newspapers.
7
@Mike L Have you heard of exponential increase? Last week or so 500 people were infected; this week 9000.
Flu is indeed a risk to some sectors of the population (get your flu shot!) but it's a known, and predictable, risk. As long as it's not a new strain, it's not going to spiral out of control. We know, more or less, how to manage it. We're just learning what this virus will, or won't, do. Caution is highly warranted.
18
@Mike L Mike; I take it you have a PHD; of course you do; preaching to America aka Trump
@Mike L
200 people dead in one month is disconcerting to me. Unknown virus, unknown timeframe or rate of being infectious, unknown medical issues, unknown recovery period, unknown length of illness, unknown vaccine.
So many unknowns. Yes, negative economic impact. But think of the people who are suffering from ALL of these unknowns.
7
Africa. No one is talking about Africa. There are thousands of Chinese working all over Africa and presumably coming and going from China. The great majority of African countries do not have the ability or the funds to track every person who gets sick and a major part of the population does not even have access to a doctor or clinic. Is WHO or any international health agency tracking this in Africa?
52
If the maximum incubation period is 14 days, most of the Chinese travelers who became sick outside of China were infected in January. But this outbreak started in early December, so were there no infected Chinese traveling internationally in December? Given that we were told about this only in January, nobody, the Chinese travelers themselves, would not know to tested for the Wuhan virus. Did they just get sick then got well and in the meantime infected others who continued the cycle?
How do we know that among the many Americans afflicted with flu some might have been sick with this virus?
6
What should occur in NYC is that NYU and Columbia should test 1000 if their students from China to get a random sample to see if any are infected. Many students travel holiday time and it would bring relief to know if anyone is infected? Tests could follow at CUNY fir anyone who travelled to China. Stop waiting for the disease to strike and take active aggressive action to find out statistics .
9
FINALLY !!!
Trump imposes almost exactly the travel ban and quarantine requirements I have been calling for on these pages for the past 8 days.
8
@Errol Man! You're more of an autocrat than he is ( or than some people claim he is).
1
Despite indications that this virus is both less infectious and less deadly than measles, some Americans still persist in avoiding routine vaccination. Where is the logic there?
11
My question is this: for this particular virus, how long can it survive on hard surfaces, such as plastic or metal? I'm thinking of all the overnight shipping done from China (like iPhones) and opened here a day or two later.
I know most viruses do better on hard surfaces than soft, but is anyone monitoring this vector of the disease?
10
Max 2 hours. You don’t need to worry about becoming infected from merchandise packaging.
In certain cases of influenza, a severe overreaction of the immune system known as a 'cytokine storm' may threaten patients more than the flu itself. In these cases the patient may die, not from the virus, but from the body's own overreation to the pathogen.
I think this is something to keep in mind as we see falling stock markets, suspension of flights, expanding quaranteens and screaming headlines. Apparently there are even food shortages now in Wuhan, no doubt due to the general craziness, which is not helping anybody.
Having lived through SARS in China (though fortunately not in Guangzhou, the epicentre), and, as a foreigner, able to have some perpsective on the panic, I almost think that the Chinese authorities, perhaps with more experience of the irrational tendencies of human nature, were right to try to play down the spread of the disease. Of course, the problems with coverups is that they are eventually exposed, leading to even more distrust. But we should remember that neither we, nor the human body, always have well-calibrated or rational reactions to circumstances.
11
@Murthwaite I don't think the CCP's attempt to cover up the true extent of this is rooted in trying to reduce panic; how does a quarantine of roughly 50 million people not cause concern? If people think something is being hidden it will only fuel anxiety among the population. I think their attempt to cover it up is as always rooted in saving-face. That itself is irrational. If Beijing knew it was this bad from the outset, how could they not foresee needing to participate in a coordinate international response? Lets face it that's what Xi wanted to avoid.
I hope this unprecedented quarantine is just a case of China showing their might (admittedly with some cognitive dissonance as I do not support the CCP). But with SARS numbers already surpassed, my gut instinct tells me that is not the case.
4
I’m sure you are more of an expert than WTO officials. The fact is China and its government are not as monolithic as you think. Open your eyes and mind. Do not mistaken ideology-driven bias as rationality.
Those who were evacuated by the US government are being quarantined for two weeks. However, the fact that those coming in from China on commercial flights don’t seem to have any limitations (other than being checked for symptoms at the border) on their movements after entering the country seems reckless.
49
Air travel is now unreasonably damaging to the environment anyway. In an integrated world where any such outbreak could derail the whole economy, it is time for greater attention to the development and adoption of virtual reality to eliminate the need for such travel. I'm not saying we should ban all travel. I'm saying that we should not depend on it to sustain the world economy.
20
I’m surprised on how the infected were able to travel. Where they infected and not showing symptoms during departures and arrivals from airports until much later?
12
For most people symptoms aren’t worse than a light head cold. Incubation time can be quite long as well.
8
I have seen some concerningly Malthusian comments. To be sure, it is not the hardiest who survive, but more likely the wealthiest, as a result of having better access to healthcare and more easily affording healthier lifestyles. It is better to be sympathetic though, than theorize in this manner, owing survival to circumstantial chance and not declaring mass scale death an essential part of nature's balance. We should collectively be cautious of survivorship bias as this disease progresses.
39
what is certain is there are no accurate numbers from which to derive a mortality rate.
no accurate number of infected and no accurate number of deaths of those infected.
what is known and accurate is that there is no vaccine—nor a rumor of a vaccine—those not showing symptoms can be infected and contagious and the United States is NOT prepared to cope any better than is China today.
18
At one point, the NYT had a map that showed where all 3500 airline passengers were flying to each day from Wuhan.
I was shocked to find that thousands of people were flying around the world each day from a Chinese city few outside of China had ever even heard of -- heading to the U.S., France, Italy, places a half a world away.
This global jet-setting is not just contributing to planet-destroying climate change, it's also taking diseases from a festering live-animal food market and spreading them around the globe.
Flights to/from China should've been banned once this problem was known. It shouldn't have taken other governments and airlines this long to take action.
Sure, get foreign nationals out and into quarantine in their home countries, if they wish. And then sterilize the planes when it's done so future passengers on those planes aren't at risk.
46
Few had ever heard of? Wuhan has large universities that participate in American study abroad programs, so I'd bet that there are more people familiar with it than you think.
7
@Rose
With modern transportation, it is estimated that if a truly nasty virus cut loose, it could take three days to spread around the world.
I would give it three weeks!
Delta, United and American know the risks that the flights to China imply right now.
13
@Trassens
"Delta, United and American know the risks that the flights to China imply right now."
You should have included that they have therefore suspended all flights to mainland China.
1
I wonder if quarantine at this stage is the answer for the Chinese cities. Imagine a rapidly spreading virus, now being given a menu or small apartments, common vent systems and infected and non infected folks all stressed out and holed up in close proximity. The repercussions are awful. Folks are all going to be exposed to this virus. Surely, this is going to be a giant test tube and accelerate the adaptive mutations to humans, plus it might figure out how to be much more deadly.
This is a terrible situation for the poor Chinese people and a world on edge. Hope it all disappears fast. Please Chinese govt. look into your own research on antimicrobial, anti inflammatory herbs. Calming the response of the immune system might hold the key to conquering this virus.
1
Doing away with these dreadful wet markets, where they slaughter all kinds of live animals on premises, would be one preventive measure.
1
It is totally unacceptable that China knowingly endangered the lives of millions of visitors and populations across the world when it knew that cases of Corona virus started being diagnosed in early December 2019 but it did not acknowledge the epidemic until January 20, 2020. The consequences on China by the international community should be severe as well the lack of trust.
27
@CD
It’s not accidental. Chinese are exporting the problem so Americans will find a cure. Chinese have done it before, in the case of animals not people, and Americans did indeed find a cure and shared it with Chinese. Anyone who has lived in China would not be surprised in the least
7
Coronavirus is overrated. Even the common flu kills more people, 1800 people a day and 650000 people in a year. Don’t be paranoid, nothing is gonna happen.
12
It also infects a lot more people. We don’t need a second pathogen if the normal flu is already enough.
2
Wow, those numbers really jump up!
Are we being fed bad information?
6
Could it be?
I believe nothing out of this administration, at this stage.
And I am a Pollyanna, of the highest and most rose-colored degree.
I don’t believe any of the numbers from any of our government agencies, ever since the day it was announced that the crowd size at inauguration, was more enormous than actual eyeball evidence could possibly ascertain and that henceforth, the American people are to be entertained with an ever malleable set, of “Alternative Facts”.
Do not believe any of the state propaganda- trust in one another and have eye to eye conversations, in person, with anyone you encounter, we are not enemies!
We are fellow citizens and we are being conned and lied to, by our own President, we can certainly talk to one another, even dispute- but we are not enemies! We are Americans.
5
@American Absolutely! Believe only what the PRC tells you. That's best for your (mental) health.
1
First confirmed case in Sweden. The person recently travelled to Wuhan.
7
Dodged a bullet with my six hour layover in Beijing last month though the persistent coughing of a few people on the flight certainly disturbed me. Now I know why so many Chinese wear masks apparently not just due to pollution
13
Russia (China’s BFF) closes border with China, and Hua Chunying - Chinese Spokesperson- doesnt say a peep. American warns its own cotizens not to travel (rightly so), but does not quarantine all travellers arriving from China (whether Chinese or US citizens and residents regardless of ethnicity- color blind criterion) into the US- Chinese spokesperson accuses America of being unfriendly. In a time like this, best not to point fingers or stir the pot. Some self reflection and consideration of others’ need for caution might be more respectful and in line with the confuscious value of being humble.
As it is, US is allowing whole plane fuls of travellers arriving from mega cities in China into LAX some of which are arriving for the LA Art Show, at a major convention center, mingling without quarantine period with tens of thousands of Angelenos.
What do you think you would do if you were in our shoes? Too friendly, in my view.
15
Yearly flu stats: In U.S.: "While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year. CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
And folks don't want to take the flu shot.
6
Not going differently here in Rome. On Jan 23rd two whole flights directly from Wuhan landed in FCO airport, just screening people for fever.
I totally support the no drama approach while being careful with the basics. But what I personally find dramatic and outrageous is the fact that many governments, mine included, state continuously that people with symptoms are treated immediately and set in quarantine, depicting a scenario completely under control. Forgetting that people with no symptoms could still be infective. No plotting wanted but...how much of this happens because of economic and politic interest? So sad.
119
This! just yesterday, 5 cinese planes landed in Italy, the only screening that was done was fever. Here in Rome still plenty of cinese tourists on the streets too.
15
@Giovanna Dow drops 600 points. America has Zero confidence in the Trump Administration handling a real crisis.
17
@Giovanna which is your recipe? People with no symptoms cannot be held. Did the beginning of this crisis justify exceptional measures? Maybe not. It makes sense until the real threat is not perceived in its full extend. This happens in all aspect of our life. Democracies are fragile but I don't not better social organization.
In 1976, as a 19-year old college student, I took a gap year and found myself teaching English in a school in Rumbek, South Sudan.
Shortly after my arrival, a virulent outbreak of ebola - first in Zaire, and immediately thereafter in South Sudan - infected several hundred people. In the Sudan, quarantine was pretty quickly imposed. Intra-country travel was immediately curtailed and all borders were closed. Confronted by a virus with a 50-90% mortality rate, WHO's response was quick and courageous, and Sudan complied.
For me, at 19, cut off from the developed world for several worrisome months (particularly for my parents!), this provided an object lesson in efficiency and competence while in the hottest of hot zones.
Of course, there was no social media then to foster ignorance and inflame speculation - cautious rationality in the face of real chaos and potential danger was the order of the day.
172
@jrsherrard
There was social media during the recent ebola outbreak. The difference was that health officials and government officials were honest about the severity of the problem, and nobody went around calling it racist. The same is not true in this case.
Several hours before the WHO declared this a health emergency, Canada's top federal health official and several newspaper editorials (including American ones) were calling people racist.
11
German experience with this Corona virus shows that 4 out of 5 infected show NO symptoms AT ALL. So the good news is the virus is less damaging the bad news is, it is more contagious. Overall, its risk seems to be comparable to seasonal flu. German experience supports the Chinese observations. You can't contain an outbreak when 80% of the infected persons show no symptons while being contagious. We should stop bashing Chinese authorities.
210
@Jacob Krakel
I agree, I believe it's now out and about, out-of-control, fully deployed if you will, and will be as ubiquitous as the common cold and any number of flu strains.
The real concern should be developing a singular vaccine just in case this is the one we keep hoping we never encounter.
I blame this Petri dish like environment we are making of our planet, foolishly mixing all of the growth mediums together, such being the warming of the planet, the out-of-control use of antibiotics in the food supply, the pesticide and other chemical uses; we are committing mass sucide.
22
@Jacob Krakel Actually , the flu “only” kills 0.1% of those infected; the WHO’s most recent press conference estimated a 2% death rate for the Coronavirus— many times that if the flu.
The flu also infects approximately 1.3 new people for each individual case, whereas so far the Coronavirus appears to be infecting between 2 and 3 people for each individual case.
So the Coronavirus appears far more serious than the flu in both infection and mortality rates. I cannot understand why the US is not quarantining. It is probably too late now.
46
@Carole: The WHO assessment could do little more than counting the fatalities and divide by the reported number of infected. When a large number of persons show no sign of infection, they will not be counted. The German case has been evaluated more carefully. They screened a large number of persons in contact with the single symptomatic case and identified 5 or 6 persons infected with Corona. Remarkably none showed symptoms. Even though a single case does not allow a generalization, the German findings support the Chinese observation that in a huge number of cases an infection with corona stays without notice. So if you add to the WHO assessment a 10-fold higher number of unreported cases the mortality drops from 2% to .2%, coming close to the seasonal flue numbers, especially, when you consider that the population is already gradually protected against flue by the vaccine.
20
As much as Mr. Guoqiang may be remorseful, the prevention of a pandemic disaster cannot be left to individual heroics. China and the rest of the world must make sure the system of prevention, sureilance and control is in place and is working. In that regard, Wuhan virus may be a perfect one for the exercise: it is not too lethal, but highly contagious. If we fail to stop this one, we sure as heck won't stop the next Spanish Flu. We should fix whatever is not working and get ready for the Big One.
42
@TK Sung
your optimism about lethality is not based on science.
2
@TK Sung - I don't know high highly contagious it is. The local Washington case is reported to have come into contact with around 43 people yet no one else has been hospitalized. He didn't even get sick enough to warrant calling his doctor. He did so simply because he didn't feel well upon landing at Sea-Tac and then saw the news report about the virus so he called to play it safe. The only reason they are keeping him in the hospital is to play it extra safe. They didn't even take him to the large research hospitals in Seattle but put him in a small regional hospital in a city the size of South Bend.
3
No reason I suppose to ask what would happen if the influenza and coronavirus stuck the same person. A child or elderly person. Someone with a compromised immune system. If this isn’t a wake up call to leave wild and other animals alone and practice better hygiene I don’t know what is.
3
I feel like this whole situation with the Corona virus might be overblown. It's not that I do not feel for those who lost someone to the virus, but it's almost like every year a new "plague moment" appears such as the Zika virus or Ebola.
Every time they appear everyone--the media, government, and people in general--act like it's the end of the world or something and usually a month or so later it ends up being forgotten about. Now it could very well end up becoming worse than we expect, but isn't that how it is with all these new viruses every year?
All I am saying is I think we should just let nature take its course, and if the virus ends up becoming much worse than imagined then go ahead and take whatever drastic measures are necessary.
4
@Jack It's forgotten about a month later because people who know what they are doing stop the problem before it gets worse. Based on simple math, if we did nothing and let this disease "take its course" millions of people would die.
13
If the world reacted the way it does about this virus as it would climate change, think about the action that could happen.
While this virus is a threat, it won’t be as lethal as the diseases and health issues that will result from climate change.
I wonder how long it will take the WHO to designate climate change as a global health emergency.
51
Tiny bit of good news: the first patient diagnosed and hospitalized in Toronto, a gentleman in his ‘50’s, has been discharged from hospital.
101
I'm not surprised that the virus can be "handed off" before the first victim gets symptoms. Nor should anyone who has dealt with childhood diseases - measles, chickenpox, mumps, roseola are all "contagious" prior to symptoms. That's part of why they are so virulent. I got chicken pox when I was 31, in February, and I have no idea where it came from. My child didn't get it for another year (and it came in spring, as it usually does).
3
@BCN : To anyone reading this, please note:
1. If you're an adult who did not have chickenpox as a kid, you can -- and should -- get vaccinated. Chickenpox may seem like a relatively innocuous childhood illness (and it mostly is, unless you're a kid with a compromised immune system or a kid going through chemo -- then it's potentially deadly). But it can be far more problematic for adults.
2. Every child over 12 months of age can be vaccinated against the chickenpox. It will save the misery of the disease, prevent shingles in adulthood, and protect those who are immunocompromised or undergoing chemo and therefore can't get the vaccine.
8
@Rose Just as a cautionary note: if you are an adult with a compromised immune system (including from medicines for other problems) you should *never* get any live vaccine. Probably most people who have reason to avoid live vaccines know this, but we want to be careful about spreading false generalizations.
1
It is obviously time for the world, the UN and world governments to rethink our relationship to animals. As much as I love the occasional burger or a piece of salmon, I have reduced my intake of animal proteins to about twice a month, and never felt better. I am 62, and have been vegan, macrobiotic, vegetarian and omnivore on and off since the early 1980s, depending on my travel schedules and whims.
There are also plenty of markets in South America where bats, and snakes and other non domesticated and farmed animals are consumed, but we have never experienced such outbreaks from that region. I wonder why.
18
@Lucien :)) I have given up eating any leafy greens in this country because its always infected with E. coli.
I was vegan 20 years ago and felt terrible the entire 6 months. Was vegetarian for two years before that. Won't go that route again.
8
Sorry. Not true. I never heard of that and I am from Brazil.
3
And guess where much (but admittedly not all) of that E. coli comes from? Manure and water contaminated by farm animals.
1
I don't know what the Chinese official in Wuhan is feeling guilty for? As is often said no use crying over spilled milk. Deal with the spilled milk and put all the available means to get rid of the Wuhan Corona Virus (WCV). The travel advisory telling Americans not to travel to China is justified until such time China can declare itself free of WCV. At the same time China should be humbled enough to take all the expert help possible from anywhere in the world for executing a strategically thought multi pronged approach with minimal political adulteration to eradicate WHC from China.
As a Virologist honored with an appointment of Adjunct Professor of Traditional Chinese Medicine at Henan U, Zhengzhou, China precisely to develop collaborations to find Chinese solutions for a serious Chinese problem, I stand ready to join hands with our Chinese people and the largest inhabitants to share our planet in fighting the vicious onslaught by an electron microscopic WCV. I hope many of US who think that they can be of help due to having skills that could be of help are ready to take a calculated risk after doing a due diligence of risk benefit analysis join hands to stop the onslaught of the WCV before it invades our shores in devastating numbers.
We have sent our troops overseas in harms way through out this century to keep dangerous terrorist from repeating 911 on our shores. Why not we not send a cavalry of our hidden talents trained to deal with deadly public health threats?
5
Wei suspects he became infected while treating a patient on Jan. 19, when Chinese authorities were insisting the disease, which is suspected to have started in a live animal market, was not transmissible between humans. Wei was wearing only a disposable surgical mask and no goggles when the patient coughed in his face.
“As long as you’re not diagnosed, you must go to work,” said Wei. He and other doctors spend their nights at the hospital because of transportation shutdowns. “We know that we are causing risk of contagion to the patients. But if you don’t work, then what? There’s no one to replace you. Your colleagues must bear more, and they’re also infected.”
The official tally of infection cases was “definitely not reliable,” Wei said. He noted: Too many patients are not being counted. There are not enough test kits. Not enough doctors. Not enough hospital beds. Not enough medicine. Not enough masks. Not enough cars to take patients to the hospital.
“There are a lot of patients and they are anxious,” said Wei, who fashioned his own goggles out of plastic sheets. “Many are calling here and you can hear them shouting on the phone, ‘Save me, save me,’ and they are crying, and there’s nothing we can do.”
18
It's far too late to ban visitors from traveling, especially Chinese visitors. The virus is global. The only thing to do now is for global powers to coordinate collective action to combat it.
69
@Nick So more travel won't make a difference in propagation? Should we start traveling to Wuhan, and mingling maybe?
6
This is an opportunity for the U.S. to help with badly needed medical supplies and treat China with some kindness. I’d we don’t work to get along, our relationship with this growing superpower will deteriorate further, to our detriment.
8
@cdp2727
Very true.
Does anyone know of any agency accepting donation?
1
China is arranging to have Wuhan citizens in foreign countries to return home to the epicenter of the coronavirus. Does that make sense?
4
What happens after 14 days? All is well?
5
@Roxy Incubation for most viruses is two weeks, after a known contact with an infected person occurs. If no symptoms (first indication of infection is high fever) show, then that person is declared clean/free of virus.
1
This is a real tragedy for the Chinese. Not only are their families at risk of sickness and death but also their livelihoods and their educations are in danger. We should be doing all we can to help, not just what protects ourselves. Offering help is what a great power would do, but we know what we are now-- a country whose leadership wants and plans to benefit from the misery of others. A disgrace!
15
I think it is inhumane to bar visitors from a country because of potential diseases. This kind of restriction is overbroad and harmful to the world.
4
@Michael G.
there are no accurate numbers from which to derive a mortality rate.
no accurate number of infected and no accurate number of deaths of those infected.
what is known and accurate is that there is no vaccine—nor a rumor of a vaccine—those not showing symptoms can be infected and contagious and the United States is NOT prepared to cope any better than is China today.
4
@Michael G. : Your point does still stand. 20 times more deadly is still horrible.
1
Many countries import from China. I don’t know if Wuhan is a manufacturing center of goods that travel all over the world. How long does this virus live on surfaces? Is merchandise from China going to be blocked because it can transmit this virus to any part of the world that excepts their cargo ships? If and that’s a big if, this happens the world’s Economies will be impacted by this. These diseases that originate in China must be eradicated even if they do kill less than the flu. At least we have a system in place for the flu virus. It seems like every 10 years or so a new virus comes out of China. China should be responsible for making sure these mutating viruses don’t happen again. They have the financial resources to do this. I am immune deficient, no longer having my spleen and also having an autoimmune disease that lowers my immunity so I am more cautious than the average person when it comes to illnesses. I look at merchandise that I consider buying and if I see it is made in China I hesitate because it doesn’t say where in China it was made and no one has told ud how long this virus lives. If it can survive on surfaces and is in a container could it jump to a different container on the same ship? I keep thinking of the movie Contagion and pray that reality doesn’t follow fiction. I
9
@Suburbs
"Another urgent problem was the shortage of supplies. Wei Peng, a doctor in his 40s at a community hospital in Wuhan’s Qiaokou district, about two hours from Gao’s family home, said in a phone interview that at least 12 out of 59 doctors at his hospital, himself included, were working despite being sick with fevers, coughs and lung infections — symptoms of the coronavirus."
hey but just wash your hands and by all means NO quarantines, wouldn't want to offend.
10
@Suburbs
Thanks for asking about object-to-person transmission. I've been wondering about that myself. With this being a new strain, I wonder if health authorities have figured that out yet. Meanwhile, I've seen no interruption of the steady stream of imports from China, but then, if the virus can live on objects for a long time, it's probably already too late to stop that potential source of contamination
4
@Suburbs
Hand washing is key! If the Contagion chef had washed his hands between touching inside the mouth of the pig and shaking Gwyneth’s hand, the illness would not have spread. Handshaking is a practice that should end anyway.
Contagion was released in 2011, so please no one complain about spoilers.
2
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
This companion NYT article is I think quite good and worth reading.
3
I am curious why countries are still accepting flights from China without a mandatory fourteen-day quarantine. This seems pragmatic but I'm not an ID specialist. Does anyone know?
14
@All At Once Not just flights but what are they doing about cargo ships and their crews? Do we know how long and under what conditions the virus can stay alive on inanimate objects?
10
@DC
pure ocean travel between Oakland and Shanghai, and on the shortest route for example, based on 14 knots, results in 24 days...infected crew will be obvious to the naked eye or dead.
11
@All At Once
Singapore has banned passengers of any nationality from entering the country if they had been in China within the past 14 days. Not even layover is allowed.
3
Not the first time it’s been suggested a dangerous viral infection originated in a Chinese food market where live animals, some wild, are kept in close proximity to each other and to people.
China hasn’t shied away from making strict rules that override traditional cultural practices. What are the chances their authoritarian government will turn out to be an advantage by forbidding these live animal markets as a threat to public health and safety?
PS, let’s also discourage anybody, anywhere, from capturing bats and eating them! Bats are much more valuable to the rest of us in keeping the insect population in check and they are a natural concentrator of many viruses such as the coronavirus group.
16
@Pottree - Has our country been any good at stopping the sale of Oxys, heroin, meth, or crack?
I doubt the government has to close that markets as I seriously doubt anyone in China will venture close for a generation or two out of fear.
This coronavirus seems to be a natural Darwinian evolutionary effect. No one wants to hear this or conceive such a thing, but akin to Climate Change, perhaps the planet is telling us something. Perhaps it's telling us our global population is exceeding the limits of the resources available to maintain healthy life.
As a result of us reaching beyond what was permitted (by the planet) for nourishment and energy, we have unleashed poisons and pathogens that exist for a singular purpose. To cull the population of living organisms that has grown beyond the earth's ability to provide for them. Effectively, to return earth to a level of sustainability.
Yes, it's a morbid thought, but I would argue it is not necessarily untrue. Is it? After all NO one knows what is earth's FULL CAPACITY (ala an economics theorem)... but it does have a limit, and will fight back when it has to.
23
@Chris B. So agree with this. We keep blaming everything else for climate change when the core issue is population growth.
15
@Chris B. Agree with this and think the other lesson is that we just travel too much. In the face of a deadly virus outbreak, we still can't stop ourselves from flying. We are exhausting the Earth so much, we need to stop, and live more simple and more local lives.
5
@Chris B. By that logic, the Earth was at capacity after the Black Death and could only sustain 350 million people.
3
The use of a log scale for the graph makes it visually more appealing, but how many readers, even of the NY Times understand what the scale means? At first glance it looks as if the death rate for coronavirus is about 50%, which it clearly isn’t.
The last thing needed for a serious world-wide health problem is misleading information that leads to panic rather than clear thinking.
41
How long ago did UK know?
How many days for a corona virus test kit to show positive?
Excerpt from the Guardian: In recent days, ambulance workers and paramedics have been seen in protective suits in a number of places. A man was reportedly removed from a budget hotel in York by health workers in full protective suits and taken to a hospital isolation unit. The man, who was a guest at the Staycity hotel in the centre of York, was taken to hospital, together with family members, by medics.
I would want to trust my government, but how?!
2
@Sammy There's no reason a developed country with reasonably good healthcare system and a democratic government would want to suppress the information. What you describe sounds like they suspected the guy was infected. It makes sense to go with full protection, and if the test results are negative or is not yet determined, it makes sense not to report it.
8
There are over 9800 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus infection in China and 213 death, Most of the death 95% are occurred in Wuhan epicenter. Within one month, every province or region in China have reported their cases . This has demonstrated the highly infectious or contagious of this new virus. From the available reported data, it appears that the mortality rate for this new coronavirus is around 2% which is less than SARS 9-10% and MERS 35%.
There are 100 cases reported outside China involved 20 countries with no death. We would expect 1-2 death if the same mortality rate apply to this outside population. Many of the cases are from China and then passed on second or third persons which represent second or could be third wave of infection. If this trend continues to hold truth with minimal or no death, could the new coronavirus mutate and become less virulent or may become another " Cold " coronavirus?
Let's hope and be vigilant. It is not too late to get your influenza vaccine. So far, more than 8,000 people have succumbed to influenza virus during this season in US according to CDC.
4
@SK - For all we know, simply by growing up in America or France, one has natural immunities to this that the average Chinese does not.
1
My guess is that closing borders may be too late.
Panic can cause more deaths from other causes than the disease itself, not to mention the social and economic impact, no?
3
As concern about contagion of the coronavirus spreads, Americans should remember that 8000 people in this country have already died from the flu this season.We need to be vigilant and do all the smart things to avoid the perils of the flu this year because it is particularly dangerous.There is a double dose of worry.
6
@JANET MICHAEL - 8,000 out of how many infected?
Of the 8,000 how many were frail or already critical from other maladies?
What does this comment mean as it relates to the coronavirus?
- Not to take it seriously?
- Not to reduce travel to China?
- Lessen our activities in public places (e.g. Subway)
I'm just a regular guy, but I hear the flu argument as a response to this epidemic and it's rarely put in perspective. Particularly since we have solid vaccine against common strains (of the flue), that albeit not a full-proof prevention against contracting the flu, it may lessen the length and severity of the flu...
14
The place to stop a pandemic is at the source. Most of the major epidemics of the last 20 years have been newly mutated viruses that jumped between species in southern China due to the vast number of very small farms that place pigs, ducks, chickens, wild bats and humans in close proximity. The solution is to modernize the one sector of the Chinese economy that has been skipped by industrialization, agriculture. Modern sanitation practices and separation of species are needed. Unfortunately this will disrupt the lives of millions of small farmers.
10
The farms are one thing, but it looks like the hotbed of disease is the animal markets in densely populated cities. That’s also an easier place to start keeping the viral hosts separated.
6
At least with the internet and cellphones, the students who can't attend school/college might still be able to coordinate with their teachers to finish out the edu.year. Rhetorical question: In America, how would we keep the education system moving forward in the event of a mass quarantine situation?
Moreover, even though the mortality rate seems to be lower than SARS, the lost productivity, in local economies and ultimately, in G.D.P happening right now, may do a lot more damage in the upcoming weeks and months than companies/economies have calculated to deal with in their annual forecasts.
5
@Jon. L I contacted my kid's middle school to ask them what the pandemic plan was. They don't have one. They rely on SDOH and the local school district, even though he is in private school. That is a hot mess. Whether it comes to cleanliness or distance learning via technology, we have the capabilities. But apparently, no plan. What-the-What. All institutions were supposed to have developed such plans in the late 2000s after 9/11. Where is the business continuity plan? Where is the pandemic section? NOPE. Nothing. So, I have my own pandemic plan, which is I will take my company onto our pandemic plan, which means working from home, and my kid can either stay part of the school as a remote student or switch to home school for the remainder of the year if this virus goes pandemic in the US.
12
@Jon. L
In America, we would likely get on our devices and wail and moan about the failure of an educational system that has mainstream ignored the real power of information technology. The spontaneous complaining would greatly outpace any spontaneous learning.
We have handed some kids some devices with very little structure, which is like handing them a car and hoping they visit the national parks. Most drive to the mall. Some of these kids are smart enough to look under the hood (computer science, coding) but if you use television as a test case (it's a generation older than commodity computing) then the prospects are mixed tending bad - even educational cable channels have slowly leaked into sensationalist shows. "57 channels and nothing on" has been increased geometrically on the internet.
5
@Jackson
The point is that there should be a general plan for what to do if there ever is a pandemic that requires a quarantine. Not just for the coronavirus, but for any illness in the future that spreads and creates a pandemic. It's like having plans for a building fire. Hopefully, you will never have one, but you should have a plan!
When will Canada take more aggressive steps in stopping the flow of potential cases? Lots of concern with travelling anywhere at the moment.
18
Somewhere out there a pandemic is waiting that could be just as devastating as the influenza epidemic of 1918-19 that killed between 20 and 40 million people worldwide, more deaths than World War I and World War II combined.
That epidemic sickened approximately 25 percent of the U.S. population and caused the average life expectancy in America to drop by 12 years.
In the excellent new Netflix documentary series Pandemic, a team of researchers are working toward a vaccine that would be effective against all types of flu and having considerable success. However, they need $2 million to continue to the next phase, and there is no guarantee they will get the crucial funding. The tension is palpable as they wait to hear from a private foundation.
Two million dollars! In a country that spends $750 billion dollars a year to finance some 800 military installations around the world to extend American power and "interests," i.e. corporate interests!
Two million dollars in a country that recently gave almost a TRILLION dollars in tax cuts to the wealthiest one per cent of the citizenry!
The military-industrial complex and the current control of the American government by the rich and powerful are going to kill us -- perhaps literally this time.
178
@Samsara
The "tax cut" that was supposed to be a mere $1.5 TRILLION dollars, in truth wound up, after the lobbyists got through, coming to $5.5 TRILLION.
4
Don't let math be a victim of the coronavirus as well: Estimates for WWII dead civilians and military are somewhere in the range of 70-85 million people.
4
@Samsara
The Spanish Flu may have resulted in more deaths than WWI, but WWII actually had 70-80 million deaths.
2
Thanks for the excellent details. I hope people understand the graph is logarithmic one!
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Let’s start with people understanding logarithms before we hope they recognize the scale is logarithmic!
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First two cases are confirmed in Russia
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Finally, some clarity and perspective! Thank you NYT for this:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
Also check out Nature which talks about what's next: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9
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At long last some good information! Thanks!
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Time to wear latex gloves everywhere. Don't touch your hands to your face, mouth, eyes, nose. Don't touch other people.
Itchy nose? Sit there and suffer or meditate through the itchiness!
Remember high touch surfaces: Debit machines, Elevator Buttons, Door Knobs, Light Switches, Gas Pumps and much more are all touched by various people.
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@funnyfukr
Excellent Advice!
Remember high touch surfaces:
Debit machines, Elevator Buttons, Door Knobs, Light Switches, Gas Pumps and much more are all touched by various people.
Use the grocery store wipes for baskets and carts.
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@funnyfukr Please be aware that in every day life, some people may get a false sense of security with gloves, and may not wash their hands (or gloves) as often as they should.This has been a proven phenomenon within the food service industry. Leave the gloves for health care workers who know how to use them. This is not something that goes through your skin. Wearing gloves will not prevent it from being spread, but proper hand washing does, and a person is more prone to wash their hands, than wash their gloves. I'd also be concerned about winter gloves, as we touch lots of stuff with them! Put them in the wash!
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@funnyfukr
Great reminder of some of those common high touch surfaces, and the rubber glove idea is great. Will get some! I'm elderly and am extra careful during flu season (like now), wear a mask in crowded or medical areas. Will add the gloves to my preventative kit. Thanks!
Why doesn’t Facebook treat people who knowingly spread fake news the same way we treat people with the Coronavirus and isolate them?
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@Jess Money?
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@Jess This is an excellent question. Well done.
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It amazes me that so many people are frightened and concerned about Coronavirus. "Why isn't there a vaccine available?" people say, but refuse to get vaccinated against the common flu.
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@Hank Gold
Good comment, but I think there is no such thing as ‘the common flu’. Every flu is different. The shots are just based on the last flu. No one has figured it out yet.
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@Hank Gold : Uh, sorry. I know many people who are quite afraid of the Wuhan coronavirus and wish for a vaccine -- and 100% of them get vaccinated against the seasonal flu every single year.
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Also Republicans continue to slash funding for medical research...
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I believe we need to accept the obvious, which is that this latest bug in now out and about, and regardless any attempts to corral it, it will find its way throughout the planet, just as prolific as the common cold, or any number of flu bugs.
The only questions at this juncture are, will it be short-lived like sars, and peter out, or will it mutate into something more deadly and rampage through society at large.
If it's the latter, will a real vaccine be developed in time, and once ready can it be deployed planet-wide, if not inhaled or injected, perhaps airborne deployment.
The next two weeks will tell us much.
I have to consider we are not hearing the full facts, at this juncture, likely due to governments trying to contain economic fallout, absolutely foolish, because if we do not get busy and mount defensive / offensive measures, we could be looking at catastrophic consequences.
Even if we overreact, our efforts will be much needed practice for the next epidemic; believe me with what we have done through the weakening of human immunity because of widespread use of antibiotics in the food supply, and the out-of-control warming of the planet, we have created one massive Petri dish called Earth.
Wake up people, take back control of our destiny from our careless self-serving self-dealing leaders, before they do us irreparable harm.
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@Mel Farrell - "take back control of our destiny"
My destiny is to live perhaps another 20 years and then die. If its not one thing, it will be another. And I really doubt it will be some bug/virus because I have already survived measles, chickenpox, mumps, HIV, and living with my ex-wife for 8 years. My heart has already stopped a few times during grand-mal seizures. The last time I scuba-dived, I was convinced that I was being watched by a Great White Shark and have never put a toe in the ocean again. My last cross-Cascades bike ride put me 6 feet away from a black bear. I got hit by a truck while riding a bike when I was six.
This thing we call God has had a lot of fun messing with my head/body but just like an energizer bunny, I keep going.
The Coronavirus can take up to 14 days for symptoms to appear. The symptoms are similar to a cold/flu, which makes it difficult for the average person to identify and seek medical treatment. So, there may be substantially more infected people that haven't been treated and are unaware they are infecting more people.
The ugly side of this bug is that is that the number of reported infected people can go from 50 to thousands in less than a week.
There is no vaccine/cure. Try to avoid large crowds and air travel until the CDC gets a better handle on this bug. Medical treatment abroad is not the same as in the USA. Being quarantined in a foreign country would simply be awful.
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@ME
A business associate commented on that yesterday and it didn’t register. You are so right, the 49er crowd may be carrying the bug.
Now I really want KC to maul the Niners.
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@Steve In fact, medical care in many other countries is superior to that in the U.S. in both quality and accessibility. Is it worse in some other countries in quality? Sure, but a blanket statement that medical care - assuming one can get it - is better in the U.S. than "abroad" is silly.
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Smaller, densely populated nations such as Taiwan and Singapore need to be most careful. Fortunately their health care infrastructure and administrative skills are excellent. So any cases will be addressed for the patients and controlled for the citizenry.
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Well, never mind all this worry. After all, Wilbur Ross, the US Commerce Secretary says this is good for the US economy.
First thing first, patients. Wilbur has spoken.
Being heartless is a prerequisite for serving in the Trump administration.
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@MIMA
So Mr. Ross believes he is immune from such pedestrian viruses?
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@MIMA...In his Grandpa Simpson voice.
Chinese students are attending universities all over the world in numbers most are not aware of. A masters program in Britain in hydrology had 20 students enrolled. Fifteen were Chinese.
A large number of students may be seeing their education interrupted - and colleges finding large numbers of students absent from classes.
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Its an extremely sad situation, but I do think China should of invited in “Doctors with out boarders “ long ago.
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Doctors Without Borders is not the appropriate organization for an outbreak like this. China has the infrastructure and the authority to deal with this outbreak. They are not a failed nation, or one torn apart by civil war. Those are the places that Medecins San Frontiers can assist. China is working with the World Health Organization. They are doing what they need to.
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And yet, when friends landed at LAX direct from LAX they were not screened, did not have to report where they had been or provide any information that could help keep the virus out of the US. I guess if it isn't a "wall" it isn't worth talking about, much less acting to protect the American public from something that is actually dangerous.
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@Alex Scary!
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@Alex:
Where were your friends flying from? Was it a domestic flight? Or a flight from someplace where there hasn't been any infection? If so, they don't need to be screened.
Furthermore, what screening would you have done? Taking somebody's temperature with those little hand-held devices is pointless. Not only are they far from accurate, but since the incubation period for this virus is as long as 14 days, a person could have a normal temperature, no fever, no symptoms, and still pass through.
(But given that Americans are perfectly fine with the farce of TSA "security," I guess they'd be fine with the farce of virus "screening," too. As long as it looks good!)
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@Lisa Simeone Just because the temperature screening doesn't 100% does not mean you should not do it.
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And yet when colleagues arrived at LAX from Beijing there was no screening, checks for wellness, records of where they had been in China or anything else to prevent infected persons from entering the US. Evidently protecting our borders only counts if it is a "wall" and yet this virus has the potential to be far deadlier than anything a wall will keep out.
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@Alex
I’ve heard a couple of accounts of people coming in through LAX with hardly any checks as late as yesterday. Also saw on social media account of tighter security and screening of passengers from China at an airport on the east coast. The response seems all over the place.
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@Alex
Exactly. I just posted about this.
Very nice tourists coming in from China, arriving at LAX no screening, attending a party I attended, mingling in the crowd.
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@jg A totally uncoordinated response from this Administration? How could that be with our very stable genius in charge?
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Does anyone else find it suspicious that no deaths have been reported outside of China? I’m the last person to be a conspiracy theorist, but something doesn’t feel right about the information we’re getting on this. The reports of cases outside of China don’t sound any worse than the common cold or a moderate flu.
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That’s because this Coronavirus isn’t as deadly as MERS or SARS though it might be more contagious. That’s why. And I suspect the number of infected patients in China far exceeds the capacities they can handle. Especially in the country side. And that’s why more people are dying in China. But the Chinese government is busy downplaying it and not so transparent about what goes on there. So that makes it worse. Otherwise many other countries could help them contain it.
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Incubation is 5-14 days.... give it two weeks and we’ll have a better picture. The epidemic will either fizzle out, or will turn into a full blown pandemic. The US government halting all international travel to China is an extreme measure, the situation is fluid.
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@Jonathan Oh, I don’t mean that I think it’s worse than it is. If there are 9,000 cases of a highly contagious virus in a country as connected to world commerce as China, we should be seeing outbreaks like this all over the world already, in countries that are far more transparent about information than China is. We’re not. Why not? Maybe because it’s not that bad? China has an interest in looking to its own people like it has authority and control of everything, and we mustn’t forget that.
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