Just ask Larry Kudlow and we'll get a better answer to this question!
With every pandemic comes a new wealthy class of people,the living.
1
The republicans. They lie, they cheat, they wish death on others for their own capital gain, all based on an ignorance of economics, history, and science. Every day, they brush aside the rule of law, moral law, and natural law. They're the engine of the Apocalypse.
10
Even the suggestion that the USA could celebrate the outbreak of a fatal infectious disease killing hundreds or thousand or more in China is repugnant. That Wilbur Ross does so demonstrates the moral vacuum that I the Trump cabinet.
13
Those with the coronavirus may be ill, but those like Ross and this Administration are truly sick.
10
SNL’s brilliant Kate McKinnon will have her hat full this week if they deploy her in skits featuring Wilbur Ross, Elizabeth Warren, Rudy Giuliani, KellyAnne Conway ...
3
trump and his lot unqualified?
captain obvious is going to sue for intellectual property theft
1
"boneheaded remarks"
Words to put on the gravestone of the trump administration.
3
When I was a history major, I took a course in epidemics throughout history. The Black Death (bubonic plague) resulted in the deaths of an estimated 75 to 200 million people in Eurasia, peaking in Europe from 1347 to 1351 (Wikipedia). The death toll of the Spanish Flu in 1918 is estimated to have been 50 million, possibly as high as 100 million (Wikipedia). I fear how bad this pandemic could get. But considering that this is just one of many pandemics throughout history, I think it is a mistake to substitute the old idea that God was punishing humanity, with the newer idea that Nature is punishing humanity.
1
Let's call it the Ross Bump. S&P down -1.8% today.
1
I am quite certain that any microbe is much more intelligent than Wilbur Ross.
5
Yes, this one made my head explode too.
How can there be so many dumb people running the federal government and yet Republicans seemingly don't care?
6
Trump will soon be coronated by our representatives and how fitting his crown is the Corona Virus. Timing!
3
I am afraid, but I am also ashamed for our country. To publicly relish a pandemic that is killing people is beneath contempt. A victory lap? Disgusting.
10
Mr. Ross isn't well.
4
As per the Dershowitzian logic...if you think it’s good, it’s good!! That’s proof enough.
3
Wilbur embodies the best of the Trump administration....
2
What kind of nightmarish monster would say that a virus that is literally killing others will be "good" for America? Oh, wait.....
4
According to WebMD in the USA there is already a shortage of about 160 prescription drugs , many lifesavers , way before this Corona virus outbreak.
Wait and see what will follow when the direct flow of pharmaceuticals from China to the USA will start to trickle .
Drug manufacturing was outsourced for profit , because greed became the winner over common sense and homeland protection.
It might have tragic results.
3
I found this headline in today's NYT, "Coronavirus Updates: U.S. Bars Foreigners Who Visited China". I haven't read it yet, but the immediate implication is that Americans who visit China are not being banned. On a social media site, I found that an Italian music academy is banning all Asian students, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean, effective immediately. I protested that Asian students already there can't be carrying the disease. One lame reply was that they might have visited Asia in the interim. I protested again that Italians who visit Asia are being let off the hook. There's been no response.
2
Mr Krugman should read his own NY Times, which in an article today stated that the coronavirus
- is moderately contagious, similar to SARS
- has a mortality rate, to date, of only 3%
- is currently less worrisome than the seasonal flu
- has a very low risk outside China.
Enough of the fear mongering. I think this is more about bashing China than anything else.
4
Doing nothing about global warming/climate change IS a crisis, and Trump is single handedly responsible for the worst part of this dereliction of duty. Don't confuse lucky to not be removed from office for obvious criminal activity over Ukraine with being lucky on other fronts. None of us are lucky on climate change as long as official policy is not only to let it happen, but add to its devastating effects, in order that mega profiteering corporations can continue to profit from selling fossil fuels.
Part of this is an attack on science. Mulvaney also let the cat out of the bag on this, too. He stated that the real reason Agricultural Department scientists were moved to Kansas was to fire them.
2
Wilbur Ross, vulture capitalist, and the role vulture capitalism plays in U.S. economics is an important topic. I looked in the index of new Zombie book and there was no reference to vulture. Zombies looks great. Great for voters to read prior to November.
All should read.
1
The sad thing is, the Trump base has readily bought into Ross's notion that thousands of $15 per day jobs from China will magically come back to the US...and they will come back with $60,000 salaries plus benefits, at 40 hours per wwek...this will happen according to Ross, rather than manufacturers simply shifting remedial roles to Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Phillipines, Mexico, etc.
8
I lived in Toronto during SARS and the economy took a direct hit. The malls (remember those?) were empty, doctor's offices closed, no one went out to eat, shops were closed, and you could bowl in the grocery aisles. NO this is NOT good for the economy. People need to pay their rent and alas medical bills.
Keep writing about this @paulkrugman we need sane voices.
I hope Ross and Trump catch it from one of Trump's workers.
Enough of their vitriol and ugliness.
46
It's sick to think so much human misery can be profited from but that's capitalism. Ross however inappropriate is saying what working class people want to hear. Jobs are coming back to America. Democrats used to be for things like jobs and Americans.
When I started engineering, I overheard two senior workers saying a recession always brought jobs to engineering. They were hoping for a recession. Progressives say deep recession is on the way and it's a good thing, Trump will be voted out of office.
How many people believe this virus will be good for the planet? A pandemic will mean less carbon emissions. Some of them are hoping for a billion dead.
4
Ebenezer Ross welcomes coronavirus to China -- big surprise. Wonder what his position is on bubonic plague?
6
he's probably for it, given he was around when it first occurred...
1
He probably owns shares in medical supply companies
Only a Trump accomplice would have the gall to suggest that the USA might profit from the suffering of other people. Not surprising though. Thanks to the Dems and their partisan impeachment we are probably in for four more years of this kind of behavior after the 2020 elections.
4
Politics is the message. When will the media and everyone else wake up to the fact that anytime anyone around Trump speaks its with the effect of a political message.. kind of like advertising. They don't have to be truthful. So every time Trump's team opens their mouth it's an advertisement and the truth doesn't matter. Wilbur Ross understands economics but he also understands sending a political message for the boss.
1
The economics of domestic public health frighten me as well.
Will underinsured or uninsured Americans visit a doctor when they feel unwell? Will those who end up in the hospital (many of the patients in China require around the clock ICU care) emerge bankrupt? Will the WH block all imports from China, including imported medical supplies? If they become overwhelmed, will hospitals start turning away the uninsured or poor for wealthier patients? And if a vaccine is developed, will those who cannot afford a jab or proclaim a theoretical or religious exemption keep the virus mutating?
About the only thing I know trump is certain to do is to proclaim that China will pay for it all.
9
Dow just fell 575 points due to suspension of flights to China. Krugman proved true in real time.
62
I read today that China's official reaction was that this oaf's comments were "unkind." An understatement at the very least. I felt sick at heart when I learned what he had said. When will the dead weight of cruel and gloating men be off our backs? I am ashamed of what is being done and said in "my" name without any way to stop it.
13
Paul, maybe I should put a ship load of money into coffin making companies. Hey, if I'm going to survive this virus I might as well survive comfortably.
4
Trump or no Trump it appears that the US government is incompetent. Why haven't restrictions been put in place? Why haven't we cancelled all flights from China?
Why are we still bringing people over from China?
Trump isn't the problem. The problem seems to be that the US government, in its entirety, is incompetent.
The lawyers have destroyed the country in service of the rich and powerful.
2
@Willt26
That all may be true, but many on the left would howl if we tried to put a moratorium on international travel or entry from the affected countries.
Why don’t we check with Sean, Tucker and Rush first!?
Wilbur Ross seems to me be be out of touch with reality. Both he and Mnuchin (aka my Uriah Heep look a like) tout the tax cuts paying for themselves. So a Trillion dollar deficit is called paying for itself? Huh? Ross has said that the tariffs will add $.80 to an American consumer? Why then are American farmers going bankrupt almost daily? If tariffs are no big deal, why are $29B of our tax dollars going to bail out mega farmers et al? I am just a peon here and it is hard to get answers to questions, eh?
10
For the record, I am grateful to you Dr. Krugman for how you not only read these comments but also often offer thoughtful responses to them.
It's reason number 17 why you are one of my heroes.
5
IT in part seems so scary because of things like this paper's ill advised 24 hour live coverage of this. Infections cannot be covered with such breathless waiting. Data takes a ton of time to gather to know actual facts. An update 24 hours a day is overkill and heightens a sense of danger. The graphic emphasizing how this compares to other diseases for perspective is a much better approach.
2
"Be afraid."
I don't do that, and I don't recommend it to anyone else. We make our worst decisions when we are in fear. No outcome is worse than the humiliation of surviving that which you fear.
3
"...he has faced essentially no crises, domestic or foreign, that weren’t of his own making. And he has surrounded himself with the gang that couldn’t think straight, which raises severe doubts about how well he would handle a crisis that he didn’t create himself."
You have just described Chairman Xi.
2
Ironically, the way to ensure American security and prosperity in this interdependent world economy is not isolationist protectionism but is collaborative internationalism. (Multinational organizations and treaties are needed to ensure that all commerce and its workers are on a fair and level playing field.) Of course, it is much easier said than done, but the current administration and its supporters are actually working against it rather than for it. We are all in the boat but they are using their buckets to bail water INTO the boat while the rest of us try to bail it out.
1
Well between Dr Krugman and Mueller’s warnings to Americans to “be afraid”, it’s about time we Americans take these warnings very seriously.
The 2020 elections are around the corner. The Republican Senate is proving that Party means more to them then Justice and the Country. Russell is already disrupting our election process and Wilbur Cross doesn’t think that the economy is threatened.
What more proof do we need to convince us that Trump and the GOP is tearing down our Democracy?
We do need to be very afraid
9
How about getting busy, getting angry, getting to the polls, getting on the phone to Congress rather than getting scared?
7
Ross is TOO OLD to understand the 21st century global economy. He is out of date, period.
3
You know, I've not seen one commentator, not even Prof. Krugman, comment on just how inhumane it is for Ross to celebrate another nation experiencing a pandemic from a deadly virus.
Is this who we are now?
85
@Jerseytime Exactly. Nail on the head.
9
Here is question. If the corona virus was passed to snakes and bats, then could it have been passed to mice or rats?
Mouse /rat droppings and urine go virtually unnoticed.
They could contaminate clothings, shoes etc.
NYC has a major rodent problem which the Mayor has not addressed. Do we have cause to worry ?
@Irene Cantu
The Corona Virus, was brought to this country by people coming from Wuhan, the Corona Virus, isn't indigenous to this country. Further more the virus, is transmitted from bats, to live farm animals sold in the Wuhan market. Where the infected animals come into contact with humans. The Virus has the ability to infect humans suggesting that it has mutated.
Air travel being what it is, it's much easier for a virus, to move from continent, to continent. As it does, it has the potential to infect millions of people as they move through airports board planes etc. But we have a pharmaceutical industry that isn't interested in developing new drugs, they are waiting for the tax payer to fund it though the CDC. Since the government can't own a patent, they let biopharmaceutical companies do the rest, then gouge the tax payers that funded the research to begin with.
We see this play out with HIV drugs, that are very expensive here, but far far cheaper in countries that have single payer health care.
3
Ethan Lindenberger didn't get Measles Vaccine as a child, since his parents "believed" it would give him Autism. (Time Magazine, ("Next Generation Leaders", May 27, 2019, page 48)
That is another example of "The War on Science". We see an uptick in the number of children getting Measles, which is not totally harmless.
Ethan went on the Web and did his OWN research & saw the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) confirmed NO link between Vaccines and Autism. Ethan got vaccinated in early 2019, at age 18.
Ethan's own parents, especially his Mother, still do not agree with his decision. But he never questioned her as a Parent. He said: "I question her sources. Misinformed people are not evil, but misinformation till isn't OK".
The most egregious example of the War on Science, is Climate Change Denial.
Oceanic Acidification, lowering the Ph of the Oceans from 8.1 to a projected 7.85, makes the Oceans more Acidic, threatening we eat, like Clams. Soon, there may only be Jellyfish in the Ocean. They tell me Jellyfish are tasty on a Cracker, but I am in no rush to try that.
Oceanic Oxygen Depletion also threatens us, as a Nov 2015 article in "The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology" pointed out. The warmer ocean threatens Plankton that makes 66%+ of our Oxygen. Normally, air is 78% Nitrogen & 21% Oxygen. Neither gas traps heat. But just a small amount of CO2 and Methane DO.
(https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-carbon-dioxide-makes-u/)
4
@ROBERT DEL ROSSO - Thank you, Robert. It's so refreshing to read a post from someone who has his head screwed on straight.
2
@ROBERT DEL ROSSO
You've totally overlooked Diatoms, the most prolific of plankton, that builds shells. As the ocean becomes more acidic, creatures that build their own shells, can't.
Which brings me to the sixth extinction. In the fourth great extingtion, scientists have analyzed crystals that are created through volcanic activity, we know the planet was very active spewing greenhouse gasses. Air gets trapped in those tiny crystals, scientists can analyze that prehistoric air. When compared to the air today there is MORE greenhouse gasses today than there was during the fourth extinction.
Scientists discovered that as greenhouse gasses accumulated, the ocean couldn't absorb the Co2, the excess Co2 made he ocean so acidic that shelled animals couldn't build shells, coral can't build coral. And Diatoms need shells, they are the basis of the food chain. We are currently seeing the same things happen. The Seattle Times is reporting on the NOAA study, showing this is happening much faster than anticipated.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crab-larvae-off-oregon-and-washington-suffering-shell-damage-from-ocean-acidification-new-research-shows/%3famp=1
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/ocean-acidification-could-weaken-diatoms-glass-houses
3
Wilbur Ross and the other clowns in the Trump administration are clueless about the economy. No, the Coronovirus isn't good for America and neither if the Republican Party.
According to the American Farm Bureau, bankruptcies increased by 20% last year. Officials say 595 family farms declared Chapter 12 Bankruptcy, the highest number since 2011.
15
Wishful thinking is not effective policy.
4
It might have been marginally civilized if Wilbur Ross waited for coronavirus-felled' bodies cooled, before reinforcing what the world considers is a money-grabbing presidential administration, waiting 'til the latest bodies are carried out of sight, so we can finagle some business during China's travail with what may prove to be an epic pandemic nightmare.
The announcement from Mr. Ross -- who settled a lawsuit filed by his former law partner for ?$9 million for funds he pilfered from that partner -- appointed by a world-renowned con man in the Oval Office, is DISGUSTING.
The USA once helped nations in their national stresses. We now see an economic killing to be made if we pounce on it now. APPALLING. MORTIFYING. I know why friends who travel identify themselves as Canadians, when asked.
9
I've thought since 2016 that it would take an economic crisis to dislodge Trump. Now I'm sure of it. So maybe the silver lining here is that there is such a crisis on the horizon. The fly in the silver lining however is that Trump has a ready-at-hand excuse-- coronavirus.
6
I live about 20 miles from Wax-Mart headquarters. They like the cheap good from China, and Americans like them, too. We're not too concerned about whether China puts Muslims in prison or whether they have any human freedoms/rights, and we don't really care if the Waltons have over $100 billion while most of us move downward on the standard-of-living, quality-of-life scale. Nah, we're kinda less than interested.
Americans are bad at citizenship. We'd like to think differently, but as an old high school US Government teacher, I can assure you, we are not good citizens. Good citizens really need to be aware and informed on so many issues. It's not an easy task. Maybe that's why most of the founding fathers didn't trust democracy, including installing the electoral college to make sure one-person, one-vote wasn't really real.
To talk about economics in the same breath as people dying from a disease is incredibly immoral. Trump is incredibly immoral. And, if we continue to look to him as leader and guide, we too are. Too sad for words.
The Republican argument that a President can do anything if 'he' thinks its in the national interest is a crime against humanity. It is a crime against democracy and truth. It is a crime against the very soul of America.
There is a great and destructive sickness going around this world. It is a virus of greed and selfish acquisition aligned with apathy and disinterest. We'll see what we're really made of. We're on the precipice. Our move.
176
@ttrumbo = Rather than the word moral I think the word ethical would be better. Trump seems to have no sense of ethics or even a sense of fair play. Morality seems to suggest mostly sexual morality. Being gay. that seemed to leave me no room at all to live except as someone trying to pass unethically. Like having to sing a song but being tone deaf.
Without a sense of ethics, even the electoral college won't mean we get "good" men or women,
They could all be on the take in one way or another. Politics used to be run on the patronage or spoils system. Even Trump's capitulation to the right wing in Israeli politics is a capitulation to the idea that victors of war are entitled to the spoils of war. That is a position that was outlawed by the Geneva Conventions.
Trump can't win in the long run. He'll only legitimize a nasty political life when the age demands of modern life require some kind of common understanding and cooperation or we enter an age of winner take all assassinations. Actually, I think we've been there since 911.
11
@ttrumbo We've sold our souls for cheap flip-flops.
22
@ttrumbo All true, but there is so much information out there it’s easier to cheery pick the, “facts,” that fit your argument. Or, even pick things that are not facts at all. This is how Trump can lie his head off. He repeatedly says things like, “he heard something, from somebody,” then repeats it as a fact. Crediblity has been replaced with celebrity with the biggest megaphone. Trump, is the most famous person on Earth, that is a fact. He could say absolutly anything, and a large percentage of people will believe him and approve of him. He, will not be eaisly beaten by Sanders or Biden. With Sanders, Trump will scream, “socialist,” until we are tired of hearing it. Biden, is cooked by his age, and he will completley nullify the Trump impeachment with his nepotism. That only leaves, Warren.
1
This is merely a reflection of Trump's own zero-sum thinking, which holds that what is bad for the rest of the world must be good for America. And Ross was pandering to a Fox audience that loves to hear this sort of thing.
221
@Bruce F You may be right. I was wondering why Ross would say such a thing; normally we expect officials to at least seem concerned and compassionate when bad things happen. But the Fox audience may like the idea that foreign suffering is somehow good for us and a vindication of America First.
222
@Paul Krugman -- Of course they want to see "others" suffer. It's one of the things they live for.
20
@Zetelmo
I was wondering if Daniel would be the first to volunteer.
9
I know of US manufacturing businesses who are unable to get parts they need for production because some imports from China are heavily delayed. How can anyone think this is a good thing for American businesses?
10
Whether it's the Coronavirus or Trump's tariffs, it's evident that events that harm players in the global value chains impact productivity and raise costs, in turn affecting workers and consumers across countries.
Besides Trump's poor understanding of Economics, others in the other end seem to think like him too. For example, like Trump, Bernie Sanders was opposed to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2016 too.
Trade builds wealth. I hope that in November we elect a leader who gets it.
5
Ross, Trump and the rest are just promoters. They will tell you down is up, dark is light and little is big. Every thing is good, and any change whatsoever in stat status quo is even better. So any event or circumstance of note, they will tell you it's a plus for the economy.
7
It is always perplexing to me when liberals accuse conservatives of being “anti-science”. Is this some running, inside joke on the left?
Progressives have politicized science to a degree that is laughable and makes a mockery of the process of scientific inquiry. Unless, of course, it’s a discussion about climate science, in which case the facts are incontrovertible.
@MB Huh?
10
Another example of “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain”, look over here....Trump has gutted the CDC, the NIH, and thinks science is a four letter word. We got very lucky with the H1N1 outbreak a few years ago. That could easily have been the 1918 Influenza epidemic. It took a relatively long time to spread in 1918, today we can spread a highly contagious disease across the world in days, not months. Truly, another reason to be concerned about our country’s future.
390
There are many reasons to be afraid today - in this very minute. And having a president who cares only about himself at everybody else's expense, is only one of those factors. Keep washing your hands, everyone.
9
If we strip out the moral dimension (or lack thereof) of the Secretary's comment, his statement simply reflects a zero-sum view of the world. For US to succeed, China must fail. If China fails, then the US succeeds.
This kind of a view is fairly common.
What is overlooked is that often the same people will claim we should coddle the rich because the rewards trickle down. That's false, according to their own mind set. Which is, for the rich to succeed, everyone else must fail.
Keep that in mind the next time Republicans promise that they're doing good for the whole economy when their policies benefit only the rich. Even if that's true (unlikely), they're knowingly lying.
13
When will the world realize that jamming antibiotics down animals throats endangers us all?! Honestly, we are reaping what we sowed. Organic is the only way. Or just don't eat animals.
4
you are right, although this has nothing to do with viruses
1
@Plant person , the poorest people in the world eat things you can not even imagine. Among these can easily be poisoned animals .
This is yet another example of Trump's lack of knowledge about world economics and "all the best people" he gathered around him who are equally ignorant. Much seems to depend on two factors. How far will this virus spread into other countries? How much will it disrupt Chinese production and for how long?
5
From a medical perspective, Wilbur Ross is probably more susceptible to the deleterious effects of the coronavirus than most, because of his age. It seems like these old, wealthy white guys in positions of political power think and act like they are impervious to disease and death. Stuff that happens to others, the riff raff.. Trump talks about 2024, when he looks like a walking heart attack or stroke waiting to happen.
7
@SLF It won't happen to *him*. Murphy's Law.
1
Stunning ignorance displayed by the commerce secretary. Where did these people go to college? Unbelievable!
9
Wilbur Ross, our Secretary of Commerce, yet another example of a "compassionate conservative", and grossly ignorant of economics. What a team Trump's cabinet is. Sort of like an island unto themselves of evil misfit toys.
Let's hope the scientists, you know those people who actually have knowledge about things like the coronavirus, start to get a handle on transmissibility rate of the virus and how best to contain it. In the meantime the best we can do is wash our hands frequently, and hope for the best.
5
The only way it is good for america is if the economy tanks and trump voters realize that he did nothing and will do nothing to "make america great"....
7
Never let an opportunity to make a buck pass you by, even if it's a potential humanitarian catastrophe. This is vulture capitalism in its basest and most venal form.
10
Wilbur Ross pathetic and sick commentary show the vulture-like thinking of this administration of "self made" billionaires. Is in their eyes the binary rationale that "your pain is my gain". It is very true this administration has not have an external crisis to deal with. How or what would be the response of Trump to a crisis like China is facing?...Pence, Pompeo and Barr would be in favor is more "Pray"...since that would be an effective way to contain the spread of the virus. Miller would push for superfast Mexico wall, adding a moat in the Mexico side, since all bad things come from there. If someone dared to suggest to quarantine the focus of the outbreak, lets say "Restrict travel to and from Kentucky and Tennessee" we can be sure the "second amendment" people would make it's way out using their heavy weapons against federal workers, to the cheers and applause from Hannity..in prime time. As for Trumpacabra? well he would blame Obama and the "do nothing Democrats" via phone in Fox and Friends from his Golf Club in Scotland (given the virus is not there yet)
4
Much like the solar eclipse, maybe Trump (take your family, too!) should get a good look at the coronavirus by heading to China.
4
Straw man #979–nice try Mr. Krugman!
Since resentment of others is the Trumpian way, I see Ross's remarks as calculated, rather than boneheaded.
1
Based on this, recent comments by Mnunchin and others, the Democratic party should run a complete team ticket - the whole cabinet - comprising Cocker Spaniel puppies. They are cute, friendly, smarter than anyone on the Trump team (because they at least know nothing about any aspect of government, rather than less than nothing) , and will eventually stop making messes in the White House, rather than making bigger messes each time.
1
Another tone-deaf remark from the Land of Tone-Deaf Remarks. We can now all be thankful for the fact that people are dying for the sole purpose of improving our employment numbers. That's about as callous as you can get!
1
Wilbur doesn't realize that the stuff that's not made in China is at least partially made in China. Maybe the electronics are from Taiwan, the chassis from Canada, the control dials from Indonesia etc. There's almost 100% chance that at least one part is from China.
If Wilbur thinks we can erect a factory and get those parts into the supply chain without disruption, he needs to go back to his bank in Cyprus to launder more rubles because commerce just ain't his thing.
2
How could Wilbur say that when it affects Ivanka's branding deals in China?
8
Once again, Ross shows his class . . . and Trump's.
2
Thanks, I feel better about things now, you told us to be very afraid, that means do not be afraid to me based upon your past prediction accuracy...
When the man in the Oval Office does not believe in vaccinations, we all should be terrified if this disease gets going in this country.
2
Celebrating an epidemic is a symptom of mental illness. Only a sociopath would revel in the spread of disease. But this is no surprise to anyone who has recognized the degree of pathology in Trump’s Republican Party.
5
Too bad the prophets of doom have not been able to profit from Corona virus and the stock market after a one day hit exclusively due to Corona virus crisis has rebounded.
War against Wuhan Corona virus (WCV) will go in full swing not that the sleeping giant China has been awakened and taking the right steps. China will shovel not the just the grounds to build its infrastructure of hospitals for isolation and treatment but will shovel billions to combat the Corona virus. The battle of the dragon against the electron microscopic Corona virus will only be won by the economic might of China ready to eradicate WCV by all means possible.
As a Virologist I strongly feel that the eradication of the WCV from the face of the earth at all cost is possible within 6 months if there is a global investment not just of money but a multi pronged strategic approach by effectively deploying the currently available broad spectrum antivirals that are present in all continents except Antarctica. I am referring to the potent broad spectrum antivirals against enveloped viruses from pomegranates that I have with my own hands shown to be potentially capable of giving any person exposed to the deadly enveloped virus like the WCV to have a fighting chance to mount an effective immune response to clear the virus.
With the signing of big bipartisan trade deals in recent days, the commerce secretary has hardly flunked any test. Only an arm chair economist would have ample time on his hands to say that
1
If Ross's comments prove anything at all not related to economics, it proves what a heartless, self-serving excuse he is for a human.
How dare he connect the suffering of the Chinese, or any other countries' misfortunes with something that might be good for us or another country?
It's the same callous mentality that doesn't connect the effects of Climate Change on immigration, migration and world poverty that leads to graft and corruption world wide.
It's the same selfish mentality that decides to give farm aid to Corporate Farmers, leaving out the small farmers and putting tariffs on soy and corn, thus making it even more impossible for small business to thrive in America.
And then cutting regulations on coal and oil production to make our citizens sick with lead, chemicals and thereby, increase the need for health care, which he would like to put back in the hands of Big Pharma and Private Insurance.
Stupid. Stupid and basically evil.
4
Ross and Trump go back a long way, to 90/91. Ross and Icahn saved Trump from complete crash. As Trump lender in Atlantic City Taj Mahal, Ross let Trump avoid foreclosure, saving Trump and their own investments.
https://qz.com/1123006/the-moment-trump-transformed-from-a-businessman-to-a-brand/
Trump is the cause of this virus and climate change. The earths orbit is starting to wobble. The sun is getting dark. Thanks Trump.
1
Thousands of Chinese dead, millions displaced, but the real tragedy is americans not getting their widgets in time. The horror!
1
„ What Ross and his colleagues apparently still don’t understand — “
It never came to my mind that anybody in the Trump administration is concerned about understanding!
Ross‘ disclosures just fit in the scheme of ‚do what ever you want but talk whatever serves the moment!‘
But I‘m sure you knew that!
If anyone doubts that wealth is no indicator of intellect, consider Ross. He made hundreds of millions, not because he's an ethical, bright man, but he plays fast and loose. This administration has many uber-wealthy nincompoops.
3
There is a reason why one hears so little about Mr. Ross. I am surprised he is still in office.
Let’s face it. Anybody named “WILBUR” is obviously from a century when horse and buggies were prevalent. This is hyperbole but this man should be put out to pasture along with the other dinosaurs in Trump’s administration.
The corona virus scares me but after reading the smears and lies that you wrote about Sanders I dont believe a word you say.
1
I’m not sure Wilbur Ross knows what century this is.
1
Wilbur Ross operated manufacturing plants; Mr. Krugman reads books. And strings words together.
Yet Mr. Krugman knows best.
How silly.
I’ve been a nurse for many years, and have never heard anything as disgusting as the selfish, thoughtless, reckless words of Wilbur Ross. He should know what it feels like to cling to life...
It’s not pretty.
3
Is Ross being intentionally dishonest here for the rubes? If not, then him seemingly not knowing this is even more alarming.
Governments get a big F for failure !
This health care professional ..... certified in epidemiology says .....take precautions as this spreads in droplets invisible to the eye.
Hand washing is your first line of defense. Look up isolation precautions levels.
Look up types of respirator masks that will prevent inhalation of virus and biohazards.
Stay out of public places unless you must go to work / school. If symptomatic call your healthcare provider.
At this point I don’t think we have an antiviral medicine that is being administered to general public anywhere.
For fever/ chills take acetominiphen
Every 4 to 8 hours. Max. Dose in 24 hours no more than 1500 to 3000mg. In doses of 500mg. Tablets . Discuss dosing with your pharmacist. This drug can damage your kidneys and livers if taken long term in high dosing.
For nausea get a script for Compazine suppositories or a script for Zofran brand antiemetic which is used for chemo nausea. Again ask your doc and pharmacists about it’s dosing etc.
Stay hydrated with fizzy waters. Ice chips. There is a two week incubation period for illness to express itself. In other words you may be infected and infecting others without knowing u are ill yet.
This is serious and measures to protect yourself and family should be your priority.
Call your Senators and Reps. Express dismay.
Look up quarantine principles.
The chronically ill , very young and frail old are most at risk of death from this virus.
Do wear a mask as needed
On the bright side, this may give President Trump another opportunity to throw paper towels at victims.
2
What a disaster this Trump Administration is - brought to you by a thuggish and greed-besotted GOP; a craven, inept and neoliberalism-obsequious "Democratic" Party; and a skillfully fearmongered electorate.
"A republic...if you can keep it."
Ross is like the guy who reads the obituary column in hopes of finding a rent stabilized apartment that could become available.
4
4 more years of trump will leave America as a banana republic looking back to 1950 as a place to go when Trump was the toast of the town a loud pushy bully now America's first dictator.
This is by far the best thing about the impeachment trial. Senator Warren said what many where thinking. Chief Justice Roberts read it and appeared angry.
“At a time when large majorities of Americans have lost faith in government, does the fact that the chief justice is presiding over an impeachment trial in which Republican senators have thus far refused to allow witnesses or evidence contribute to the loss of legitimacy of the chief justice, the Supreme Court and the Constitution?”
7
The non-human part of the planet could sure use a good human pandemic.
3
Lucky us. The first probable pandemic and Donald Trump is in the Oval office. Just remember what he told you... traumatic brain injuries are just headaches.
5
not to mention Wilbur should himself be quarantined. he's toxic. what a lack of humanity, utterly disgusting - but par for the course. did steven [miller] teach him to talk like that? or did he learn it as a child? ashamed to be an american these days.
3
“There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/
This is ridiculous! The common flu is deadlier and more infectious than this new coronavirus!
Only in the Trump administration could one of his idiot appointees celebrate the fact people are being sickened and dying, anywhere. Wilbur Ross's sickening comments about the "economics" of the Coronavirus remind me of what somebody I once had the misfortune of working for said on 9/11 after the second plane hit: "Well, there goes the New York Region's quarter."
The Trump administration is boundlessly inept.
1
China's disaster is somehow our gain. Just add Wilbur Ross' dumb statement to the litany of dumb, self-serving utterances from this Administration. So, when's the next election again?
Thank you.
Wilbur's $600 slippers are what come to my mind every time I hear his name. You couldn't make it up.
https://www.gq.com/story/secretary-of-commerce-slippers-stubbs-wooton-congressional-address
John Bolton: “i don’t want any part of this drug deal.”
Moscow Mirch: “hold my beer”.
1
The return of Mad Cow Disease morphing into Mad Dog Disease. Are you ready America?
1
I think Wilbur Ross has a lot of competition for worst cabinet member.
Famine, pestilence, plague.... These are the gifts to our Nation from the evangelical base of this very base man, and his crime family and henchmen.
Can war be far off?
The republican party has built quite a base for itself: the KKK, American nazis, a religious sect that looks forward to the end of the world in hopes they can wag their fingers at those of US who are not "saved", the remnants of the know nothing party, and some pretty evil people of other persuasions.
And people are afraid of Bernie Sanders?
Too liberal?
Wars are not won by not being bold. They are not won by the meek and cowardly. And we are in a war for the very soul, and survival, of this once great Nation.
1
What's bad for the Chinese economy is bad for the Global economy. It's just that simple. If Trump want the Chinese to buy more US products, they need to be able to pay for them. This may get a whole lot worse, before it gets better.
1
I should be surprised, but am not, that someone from the administration like Ross would actually THINK, much less say that a global health emergency is good for American businesses. The depravity of this administration reaches new lows every week. I used to think that it was purely rhetoric when people compared us to what happened during the last days of the Roman Republic, but the analogy is more and more apt.
7
Dr. Krugman,
I'm curious about this line:
"...if the virus seriously disrupts Chinese production, its impact on the U.S. economy will be like an extreme version of Trump’s trade war, except without any compensation in the form of tariff revenue."
But isn't the tariff revenue an illusion, and in fact the tariffs are paid largely if not entirely by US consumers?
2
I believe I saw some statistics that even as China' Manufacturing has grown, it's percentage of their Economy in the terms of GDP Percentage has decreased. So, that would be also a factor in how the Administration is following a flawed policy.
Depending on the dispersal rates and distances from its initial point of this virus, Chinese production could be effected in ways that have negative consequences for Chinese output for export. As I understand it there are about 6 weeks of products already in transit. If the virus seriously disrupts exports to the U.S., how long before consumers and manufacture feel an upward pressure on costs?
1
A question for Mr. Krugman: Many have expressed surprise that we have gone so long without a recession. Could it be that the expansion of the Chinese economy over that last couple of decades is a large part of the explanation for this phenomenon? The Chinese have been building at an unprecedented rate and this has poured money into economies around the world. Germany's economy, for example, has been strengthened by its exports of machinery to China with consequential benefit to the economy of Europe as a whole. Would a contraction of the Chinese economy, in part by over-building and possibly as a result of the coronavirus, lead to the recession we've all been waiting for? I'd like Mr. Krugman's opinion on this.
1
The coronavirus is a lesson of humility to everyone of us because a very little creature -an object the size of a Rubik's Cube could contain millions of viruses- is saying to the human beings, "look at what I can do to you all" and the virus says also "I am going to help make clear that the Affordable Care Act was a good idea". How did we learn what the virus says? Simple answer: via word of mouth. Yes Sir, we should be afraid.
1
With the virus will come sickness and death, but as with any plague a certain number will survive or even be immune.
That’s how life forms stay alive, with a population that successfully outlasts the time of plague.
It isn’t a story of joy or despair or even triumph—that’s just the way life forms survive, or lacking that variability don’t survive. We cannot begin to count the ones that have vanished forever.
Ross’s comment was completely abhorrent. Trump has already weakened our ability to respond to this disease by cutting CDC funding. This kind of idiotic remark just emphasizes his administration’s cluelessness, idiocy, and vindictiveness.
3
"The US is doing well." "Good economy." "Stock market."
Doing well, for whom? Wilbur Ross? Trump? Manafort? The guy who couldn't afford a decent education and is stuck in a dead-end job - Burger King, Walmart, Jiffy Lube - with no health insurance, sick leave, vacation pay, raises - no future - trying to make ends meet in this "great economy."
If the stock market is so great, then why is there so much demand for bonds (with incredibly low yields) and a zero-interest-rate policy? This great stock market floats on free-money froth. Trump froth. Not on "an economy." Not on American "manufacturing."
People are angry in this country: Republicans, Trump supporters, those workers I refer to above with two or three low-paying jobs. And what are they angry about? Fake news. Socialism. Obamacare. Abortion. Immigrants. Minorities. Guns. Liberals. Not jobs.
They are not angry about tariffs. About declining manufacturing. About global warming. About having a putative felon in the White House surrounded by political-hack rats waiting to desert the ship.
They are worried about how to get a really big pickup to haul something they don't have...
3
Who wrote that headline? Nice job.
I simply remember Trump's reaction during the 2014 pre-mid-term fabricated ebola frenzy: "Let's ban all flights from African countries", like the idiot he is. The CDC under Obama knew better than that...
The comments from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, whose qualifications for the job remain a mystery to me, reflect the rampant narcissism in the Trump administration. The world always seems reflected from a "first person, singular"lens, i.e., "I." The global implications of an important current event--in this case, the coronavirus--are personalized, trivialized, even minimalized to fit the egoistic world view of parochial thinkers like Ross and his fellow Trumpian clones.
3
Here is our Commerce Secretary saying that illness and death are good for our economy. This illustrates why I have been calling the Republican Party "the Death Party". I have come to believe that the promotion of misery and death are goals high on their agenda.
3
The king of fools has surrounded himself with other children of privilege. They began life on third base and all believe they have hit home runs. They belief their success is theirs and theirs alone and thus their economic prowess is supreme.
But..
Ross again proves he knows nothing. His boss recently signed an agreement in which the Chinese "agreed" to increase their imports from key U.S. sectors. China represents the largest consumer market in the universe. Far from a worst case scenario, thousands die and the economy slows. China will certainly not reach the agreement they set with stupid. In fact depending on the severity of the Coronaviris Chinese imports of U.S. products may fall.
Also businesses have be leaving China because of the tariff wars, but how many have returned to the United States? With a tight labor market and labor costs rising, what makes Wilbur believe they will ship production here? Lets add to that the current hostilities created by this administration to visas.
To the larger point, this economy is built in trumps likeness, like all his businesses, a bright flashy sign with no substance.
It will catch up with us, and yes, it will hurt when it does.
As usual, Krugman somehow links the mess in China back to Trump. The same Nobel Prize winner in economics who predicted that a Trump election would cause a stock market collapse and an outright depression, once again grasps for straws in his anti-Trump rantings. Ross was expressing an opinion. China does need to be called to account for their theft of American intellectual property, and their unfair trade policies. But Krugman prefers to blame Trump and his advisers for stating the obvious, and contemplating what this virus will do to Chinese industry. It's called forward thinking, Mr. Krugman.
1
The lack of preparation at the highest levels of government and the incompetence and ignorance rife in the president's inner circle are just the tip of the iceberg.
What's scarier to imagine is how the Trump administration might react during a full-blown pandemic and its aftermath. Imagine getting your pandemic news via presidential tweet. Imagine Trump disagreeing with CDC and other leading scientists and his own scientific and disaster-relief advisors. Imagine what enemies Trump might identify as responsible for illness and deaths, e.g., immigrants, China, and what actions he would take against them. Imagine what actions his administration might take so it looks like it's doing something, e.g., close hospitals to immigrants, launch investigations of political scapegoats, investigate university science departments, etc. Imagine how the administration would impose a news blackout to "prevent panic". It's not crazy to imagine that Trump would eventually use the pandemic as an excuse to declare martial law or suspend elections.
It's entirely likely that the ruling passions of a Trump administration caught in a nationwide disaster would be disorganized panic, opportunism, and cheap gestures. Everyone ready for a free roll of paper towels tossed their way by the president?
3
Trump has been very lucky! He continues to fool many and lie with the backing of every republican. Even though some republicans abhor him, they still support him. I continue to think that at some point, what he has done or not done will backfire, but the charade goes on as we slither from one tiring episode to the next and the cult of trump remains intact.
2
How does an 82 year old Commerce Secretary understand modern manufacturing?
1
The only way I can see the coronavirus as a good thing is if Trump were to get it.
4
Thank you for this article. The self destructive cynicism involved in assuming a global outbreak of infectious disease is good for America was disturbing.
It is reassuring to know that there are indeed other sensible people in America.
1
Apparently, Paul Krugman is part of the coronavirus panic epidemic and while he questions his take-out order he remains ready to swallow another dumpling of doleful media driven excess regarding potential economic woes he gleefully anticipates pinning on President Trump. If Krugman were a real numbers guy, he would acknowledge the corona casualties pale in comparison to the annual U.S. flue fatalities, yet the media pandemic button has been pushed and Krugman is ready to pile on if he can only attach Trump to the tragedy. Better idea is to wash hands and keep the economy humming, as manufacturing will be largely unaffected by this normal incident of a new disease. Do not be afraid.
1
If we had a President who was a leader, a week ago he would have publicly declared an emergency and made sure that funding was available to the CDC to take the lead in preparing a vaccine.
Trump said nothing. Wilbur Ross's comment sounded as if he were watching an episode of a medical drama on TV. No chance the pandemic could affect us, after all, but look at the spinoff to American manufacturing. These guys just see $$$.
We have an administration of dangerous clowns that needs to be replaced. The concepts of planning or strategy for the future simply don't apply.
Vote in November.
4
The world is facing an unprecedented challenge. We MUST work together. Instead of trying to undo -- or even just ignore -- all the damage Trump has done to international cooperation and especially relations with China, he's got his "team" out there calling China the greatest threat on earth (Pompeo) and saying that the bright side is that the disease will hobble China and, by implication, kill large numbers there.
and, of course, the Trump administrations cares nothing about human lives lost.
1
"...manufacturing is in recession."
The hardest thing in the world is to try to tell this to hardcore Trump supporters - or even softcore supporters. The hardcore supporters I get, but the squishy ones should be receptive to the argument that, despite him saying he would bring manufacturing and mining jobs back, he has failed miserably.
Of course, these two industries are in a natural decline, but he has accelerated the decline. The issue, as with everything with Trump, goes to the issue of trust. We just can't trust him to do the right thing, either ethically or competently. Those squishy Trumpist should realize the captain of the ship of state is drunk. Trump maybe a teetotaler but he's drunk with power.
1
What strikes me about Ross' statement is the complete lack of empathy which is so characteristic of the Trump administration.
People half way around the world are getting sick and some of them are dying. And these Trumpistas gloat over how it will benefit them politically.
2
What should scare us all is that trump has put the most incompetent people in charge of the agencies that run our government effectively.
Everywhere from the DOA, DOI, CDC, EPA, to the Weather Bureau
They are rife with conflicts of interest and using these agencies to profit their businesses
1
Besides demonstrating a lack of understanding about modern global economic interrelationships, Wilbur Ross’ comments are symptomatic of the apparent cruelty and heartlessness of so many in Trump’s inner circle. What kind of a monster even thinks of taking a “victory lap” when talking about the spread of a deadly virus that has already killed hundreds?
1
What happened to good old quarantine. All flight s from China, all people, since 3 weeks for 14 days. Problem solved.
1
I equate this to a person who worked his/her whole life to build a brand or a company and then as you get old and you have to watch your drug addled son take over.
1
Krugman you are right to be afraid but you just flunked team Trump. They want as many of us dead as soon as possible, more money for them.
10,000 cases, 200 deaths. About the same percentage of death as the annual flu virus. That means 9,800 people survived and are now immune. Let this thing run its course and be done with it. The way this illness is being reported, you would think it was a reincarnation of the Black Death - where half of populations perished.
1
@Alan Wold Not even close. The coronavirus mortality rate is 2%. The mortality rate for influenza is is much less than 1%. Now, the total number of deaths from influenza is alarming, but don't try to equate the mortality rates.
Every time I read your column about Trump and his administration (it's not a perfect analogy) but I feel like you are describing what Homer Simpson would be doing - and before I get hate replies - I realize this is disrespectful to Homer Simpson. sorry Homer.
"When the music is over, turn out the lights..."
On our Democracy.
MB
2
With Trump and his administration, you get the sense that money outweighs everything. Everything!
What about the Coronation Virus?
1
There are so many things wrong with the trumpies response to what may be a pandemic it's hard to know where to start. Ross to the rescue! His only real role in the Cabinet is to make Betsy DeVos look sentient.
One could wish that this is satire akin to Jonathan Swift's chastisement of the English government and nobility for its ignorance of the Irish plight by suggesting that it be resolved by eating babies. However no one in the Trump Administration could be accused of having that type of intellectual acumen, as they are just about as an obtuse and incurious bunch of ignoramuses that has ever existed. It is said that they are the crowd that Jesus favors, but I'm afraid, from their actions and words, that they are more akin to he Beelzebub set.
Is it too late to sell short the S&P500 index?
one of "I know the best people".
Mr Krugman concisely summarizes the situation. It is more than frustrating that the Trump administration does nothing but create overall harm to Americans. Surely, it is dispiriting.
People of integrity have to worry that the election of 2020 will not reverse the chaotic failing of our country. There is an extremely resistant 40% with outsize electoral influence who are wholly enraptured by Trump.
How to regard the Trumpsters? In The Argument yesterday Mr Douthat suggested the we might regard what Trump does with a bit more amusement than enragement. Turning that over in my mind, I went from laughing at these people (which violates the empathetic part of me) to regarding them as rather pathetic. That people can let themselves be part of the cult of an unethical, immoral, ignorant narcissist must elicit more pity than anger.
People are getting sick and dying, but the upside is it's great for our economy! This is the kind of sick and twisted logic that has become normalized in the current political climate.
1
Be Afraid....my mantra.....everyday when I wake up since THAT MAN was elected. And unfortunately, after this sham of an
impeachment, which was a done deal since the inception, I am more than afraid for our country.....terrified is the word.
2020.....Vote!
1
And guess what Trump did!
Scientists Were Hunting for the Next Ebola. Now the U.S. Has Cut Off Their Funding.
Predict, a government research program, sought to identify animal viruses that might infect humans and to head off new pandemics.
Dennis Carroll, the former director of USAID’s emerging threats division who helped design Predict, oversaw it for a decade and retired when it was shut down. The surveillance project is closing because of “the ascension of risk-averse bureaucrats,” he said.
Because USAID’s chief mission is economic aid, he added, some federal officials felt uncomfortable funding cutting-edge science like tracking exotic pathogens.
Congress, along with the administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, were “enormously supportive,” said Dr. Carroll, who is now a fellow at Texas A&M’s Bush School of Government and Public Service.
“But things got complicated in the last two years, and by January, Predict was essentially collapsed into hibernation.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/25/health/predict-usaid-viruses.html
I'm whistlin' past the grave yard, but given that the Fed's not going to let The Mighty Trump down, I'm not feelin' too nervous. Don't know where all them dollars are goin', buts lots are in my foxy pocket (thanks SB).
Yes, I'm afraid - of agreeing with Paul Krugman.
Cut poor Wilbur a little slack, his economic ideas come from the Triassic period when the was young and still somewhat mentally agile.
1
A wall. A really really tall wall. That should keep the virus out.
3
Now would be a great time Mr. Trump, to meet with Xi Jinping at at your resort in Wuhan City -- you say you don't have one, well all the better to look Wuhan over for a prime spot -- or to host a Chinese delegation at Mar-a-Lago to discuss building a Trump Tower in Wuhan City.
"No, Team Trump, the Coronavirus Isn’t Good for America"
But it could be...
...if it were to spread only through the Trump Administration...
...from the top down.
3
I forgot about Wilbur Ross but his comments show that he’s a true swamp creature. Has Wilbur even done anything since the census fiasco?
I like you, Paul.
Where did they find this lunatic? A possible global pandemic will "return jobs to North America"? After corporate America couldn't offshore them fast enough? Disrupting the Chinese economy which makes America's ubiquitous gizmos will help the economy? Only into the gutter.
Meanwhile, how is America's absurdly overloaded health sector supposed to cope with a real outbreak? With press releases? Because that's about all they've got. Nothing could illustrate the total delusions which infest this presidency better than this load of tripe.
Oh give me a break, Ross didn't say the virus was good for the US in every way, he said it might bring jobs back tot he US. It's certainly easier to slam somebody if you intentionally misinterpret what they say but it doesn't show any integrity.
1
Will this be the time when Trump (flushed with his triumph at solving the Israeli-Palestinian Problem) pushes forward to to his signaled campaign to reduce (or eliminate) Medicare? We can’t pay for ordinary sick people and plague victims as well. It’s expensive!
Unfortunately, much of the GOP thinks like Ross. The comment was sickening but what is even more horrific is the administration's ignorance.
We have nothing to fear but fear itself. President Trump will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN and all the Chinese Virus can do is help him. Anything that weakens China, our greatest enemy as Secretary Pompeo has emphasized, will help us.
Supply chains, schupply chains. The only chains that bind us are the Liberal Democrats who are trying to reverse the election of the Greatest President in American History in the Greatest Democracy in World History.
Oh, wait... the United States isn't a democracy. Never mind. Please disregard everything I said.
1
“Sure enough, Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, appeared on Fox Business on Thursday morning to declare that he “didn’t want to talk about a victory lap,” but that the coronavirus “will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” By saying this, he demonstrated a couple of things: (1) why Gail Collins’s readers voted him Trump’s worst cabinet member, and (2) why Trump’s trade war has been such a failure.”
And how about:
3) What Wilbur Ross really means- “Sure humans will die from the coronavirus. But who cares? Isn’t our economy going to be great?!”
4) When the admiration of business overrides empathy (and sympathy) toward your fellow human beings it reminds me of this exchange between Scrooge and Marley in Dicken’s “A Christmas Carol:”
Scrooge: But you were always a good man of business, Jacob,' faltered Scrooge, who now began to apply this to himself.
Marley: Business!' cried the Ghost, wringing its hands again. "Mankind was my business; charity, mercy, forbearance, and benevolence, were, all, my business. The deals of my trade were but a drop of water in the comprehensive ocean of my business!
Is Krugman capable of anything else than op-Ed’s like these? Trump could offer the cure to corona virus and Krugman would complain he didn’t deliver it quickly enough.
I don't think Mel Brooks at-his-best could concoct characters this hideous:
Rick Perry who wasn't sure which department he ran. Steve Mnuchin modeling one dollar bills; Scott Pruitt's private Superman phone booth or Wilbur Ross's lobby for the Mortician's Society.
Unfortunately, these folks are very good a what they do; just in the worst possible way
It is rather comical that Trump-hating ultra-partisans like Krugman are critical of Trump regarding this virus.
I am more critical of Trump than Krugman could be on his most hateful day. But ultra-partisan readers have filled these pages with opposition to a travel ban prohibiting every non-US citizen from entry to the US if they had been to China recently (and returning US citizens require to quarantine). Your political/social agenda prevailed over your intelligence and your desire to prevent a very serious disease from afflicting Americans.
And now that you have welcomed this virus to the US, Krugman has the nerve to find fault with Trump even though he did exactly as you wanted by his refusal to impose a travel ban and quarantine returning Americans.
Trump betrayed all Americans just like you wanted. I suspect he did so in order to avoid losing the tourist business). He betrayed all Americans just like your hero, Obama, betrayed all Americans by welcoming Ebola to the US by refusing to impose a travel ban then because, as he admitted then, he wanted to protect Africans from economic loss (which doesn't even make sense since there is no economic loss to Africa when Africans cannot make pleasure trips to the US).
Wilbur Ross is just one of the Keystone Kops that keep telling Trump what he likes to hear, most of it it's dead wrong. Sane economists like Prof. Krugman are perfectly correct in warning that a pandemic on top of Trump's stupid trade war with China will cause a worldwide economic downturn, if not a recession.
1
In 1957, I amd 2 of my children got there Asian flu. I've just block amounts of memory because I was so ill and my children so ill that, alone and caring for us all, the fever alone was sapping all our strength.
Our small village closed school, some businesses had to because everyone got ill, and life was miserable for those who did not get ill because they stayed away from us or helped us and put themselves in danger.
When I think of that time, and hear someone make remarks as this man has, I have great fear that if we have an epidemic, nothing will have changed from 1957.
1
One of the oddest things about "official" US reaction to the coronavirus crisis is Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross's hypothesis that it will create more US jobs.
This claim seems to only further confirm that the US Secretary of Commerce has absolutely no understanding of global economics and corporate supply chains.
It is a fundamentally flawed analysis based on the erroneous and antiquated notion that American companies still source Chinese-produced goods from overseas American-owned plants. That model doesn't exist anymore.
American manufactures for a long time now have relied on Chinese-owned manufacturers of parts and finished goods. There are relatively few American-owned plants in China nowadays that somehow can be "repatriated".
If there is any likely result of an outflow of capital investment from China, it will be by Chinese manufacturers building plants elsewhere in Asia or, increasingly, in Africa from which they will supply their American and other Western buyers.
Our Secretary of Commerce should at least be wise enough to realize that the security concerns of allowing Huawei to construct 5G networks in the US and Europe arises because they produce the equipment and software using their own technology. This fact alone should inform him that this is not the 1990's and we are no longer living in a world of "runaway US plants" operating in China that can somehow now be brought "home".
And yet, in spite of it all, we still have the strongest economy we've had in recent history.
@Kurt Pickard what can we say, Obama built this economy well.
3
It's always tough to accurately estimate the contagiousness of a new disease because the rate of contagion is number of cases at time 1 divided by the number of cases at time 0. Mathematically, as the denominator shrinks (fewer cases at time 0), the rate of spread grows. But at time 0, no one has seen the disease, it's very likely to be misdiagnosed, so the real number of cases can easily be much higher than the number reported, thus real rate of contagion much lower.
Dr. Krugman:
With or without Coronavirus the manufacturing would be down, as the companies used the tax cuts to buy their own stock, distribute profits and activities unrelated to additional investment in production; by the way, you said that before.
2
This will be useful in educating the billionaire class, if they are educable, a debatable proposition.
Wrapped in even more luxury by Trump's tax giveaway, they have not publicly criticized the seeds of recession planted by Trump. Perhaps the immorality of Wilbur Ross's a pandemic in China is good for us will wake them up.
At an rate, Bernie and the other Democratic candidates must commit to renewed investment in pandemic prevention and mitigation. Pandemics, like climate change, are a matter of national security, neglected by Trump.
2
I may have missed the answer to this question: are Americans willing to trade an increase in manufacturing jobs for higher prices or, the corollary, are Americans willing to trade lower prices for lower wages/standard of living? The administration wants to bring back manufacturing jobs but has no conception of the consequences because of the potential impact on prices and/or wages if they were to succeed.
2
@Publius To me the answer to your question is related to quantity consumed. Sure there are lower prices now with offshore manufacturing, but what has happened is that we just buy more stuff in the name of pushing volume growth.
When I grew up I had a pair of tennis shoes and a pair of dress shoes and maybe some boots. Now we trade 3 pairs of well built American shoes for 20 pairs of cheap ones that match every conceivable need but don't last that long.
What cheap off shore manufacturing has brought us is a house full of low quality goods in some cases. In other cases it has led to increased corporate profits but no benefit to the consumer- in the end only competition drives down prices, and just because manufacturing is driven off shore doesn't mean selling prices will go down.
2
I happen to have an undergraduate business degree earned in 1983. I do remember taking a couple of economics courses. I also learned in at least one other course something about supply chains and about how these were becoming more globalized. I am, like I assume is the case for most people, concerned first about the health threat of the corona virus. However, based on what I learned nearly 40 years ago, in some undergraduate classes, my second worry has been over the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak because of how globally interconnected manufacturing supply chains have become. So this is how abjectly incompetent William Ross is. He knows less about how manufacturing supply chains in today's global economy work than does a guy with a nearly 40 year old business degree. I would never apply for a job at any business involving any kind of oversight of manufacturing because I am not qualified. Wilbur Ross knows even less than me. Appointing someone that incompetent to Commerce Secretary should result in an additional article of impeachment. Trump's administration can only be described as a kakistocracy.
12
Thank you Prof. Krugman for another insightful piece.
Thousands of people have already died and the Commerce Secretary “didn’t want to talk about a victory lap,” I don't know how many must die before he does his victory lap but the rest of the USA and the world won't be able to do a victory lap until he and the rest of this evil gang are in prison, or more likely, out to pasture sipping martinis at the Doral Golf Course and reminiscing about the old days. That is if there are any of us left amid all the hurricanes, tsunamis, wildfires, poisoned water, polluted air and deadly pandemics.
4
First hand experience - not academic or partisan - the supply chain has shifted significantly. The impact to the US is slightly positive, the implications to China are huge.
Lot of work is moving to other Asian countries that are cheaper and friendlier.
4
I whole heartedly disagree with Mr. Krugman. For the first time in decades, people have started to realize what blindly relying on China means. And by that I mean, ignoring everything and anything that goes on in that country as long as cheap goods end up delivered via Amazon at US doorsteps.
Whether its the fact they burn 49% of the world's consumption of coal or their incredible addiction to plastic wrapping that ends up in waterways or human rights or international debt traps or the latest pandemic that has originated from China or financing US academics to steal intellectual property at its source or Huawei.
The list is pretty much endless.
Maybe, just maybe, this awakens the majority of the slumbering US populous to what they casually ignore to support their spending habits.
Add these all together and realize that this is just the latest demonstration that we pay a higher price in the US for regulation and standards for a reason.
EPA, CDC, NIH etc. They all play a role in the US' standard of living.
Why do we continue to expose ourselves to risk and tolerate what we do not allow at home for cheap goods? Politics? Greed?
4
@Herry You have raised some essential questions. While I cannot reply WHY, I can say WHAT: unfettered US cutthroat exploitative capitalism ("Raubkapitalismus"), which the Chinese copied and excelled at, at the horrendous cost to their environment, health and human rights.
And I say that as someone who is principally pro-Chinese-people and culture.
1
I hope you are searching your home and garage for Chinese-produced goods. If you don’t find any, I would be flabbergasted.
Well, there could be an upsurge in people needing to cart the bodies away. And the manufacturing of masks and gowns to repel germs will see a big uptick. Hospitals, EMT personnel, rural hotels and motels should see a surge. Yes the economic advantages are many
3
One thing (among many) that neither Donald Trump nor his administration has been good at is calming the population in the face of a serious problem. Somehow I don't see them being good at encouraging people to respond in a functional way to the coronavirus.
11
I am glad PK highlighted such cruelty in Ross’s words, unacceptable policy talk.
However, Krugman is less correct on several generals themes about epidemics and economics, one just has to read and understand history and relate that to public health practices in China today. It’s likely business will lean away from areas of poor public health practices until the issue can be safely resolved— and I don’t see that happening in China for a decade or so.
3
Can the triumvirate of (TRUMP, MNUCHIN and ROSS) truly be so ignorant or lacking in financial imagination as to think the derivative instruments(options and futures) that cobble interest rates, commodities, stocks, debt employment and business activity, velocity of circulation, are not serious speculations that can threaten the stability of the entire financial system? Does the TRIUMVIRATE BELIEVE THAT WIDE SPREAD ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE will stop at the US border. That the 'iron law of wages' which proposes that labor surplus will be eliminated and the wages and prosperity will increase, as prices rise and universal demand slackens. Time for the 'tyrants' present and future, to understand the 'tyranny ' of markets.
4
"It doesn’t help that the Trump administration, as part of its general war against science and expertise, has seriously reduced America’s capacity to respond if we do face a dangerous pandemic."
Remark made by that well known micro biologist Paul Krugman.
At the moment we have no way of knowing whether the Trump administration's response is excessive or too little. It LOOKS like the coronavirus is quite infectious, but it also looks like the death rate is small, around 2% for people infected.
Why not wait until more is known rather than rush in with your, clearly partisan, point of view?
@Ludwig
Coronavirus is already having an economic impact, given that multiple countries are banning Chinese travelers. A 2% death rate may seem small compared to Ebola infection, however it is hardly insignificant.
7
Krugman was referring to the defunding of science and agencies that provide expertise in times of crisis. In particular the Centers for Disease Control will see their budgets reduced by nearly a billion dollars over 2019. There's nothing partisan in recognizing that this administration has declared war on science and data, in favor of populism And personal enrichment at the expense of the nation.
Indeed, the partisan reaction is to deny that any of these things are happening.
10
We have already seen how antiscience this regime is, that ship sailed a long time ago.
My first thought: Dr. Krugman, quoting Wilber Ross, writes, "the coronavirus 'will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.'" So does Mr. Ross believe that the loss and/or threat to human life and well-being is not important? (I will grant that Ross is the Commerce Secretary, so humanity is not in his purview)
My second thought: it has been reported in the NYTimes that one of the reasons for the Corona virus's lack of containment is the nature of the Chinese dictatorship. It - Xi - are so concerned with maintaining control that Xi forbade the dissemination of information that could have led to containment for fear that it would indicate that his government is not fully in power.
Our government's "response," due to the Trump administration's science denial sounds eerily familiar.
11
This column, and today’s article on chain pharmacies emphasis on metrics, highlight once again that capitalism on steroids. Little wonder that Sen Sanders and Warren, recognizing that we need major change in our economic priorities, thinking, are looking better and better.
9
Trump's family finances have no doubt been greatly enhanced by his presidency. That would have been his original goal so he considers it all a great success. The welfare of the rest of us is of no concern to Trump.
36
Ross is correct: The Coronavirus could present the United States with a big upside. For a populace that appears determined to value bedtime stories over evidence, the Secretary's remarks are hard to ignore. Couple his "Trump makes everything better, even virulent disease!" message with Trump's idea that the best way to ameliorate a bad economic strategy is to pursue it more zealously and you end up with Newspeak in support of Milo Minderbinder's business plan: He bought eggs for two cents and sold them for a penny. When asked how he could make a profit, he replied: "Volume."
Should the public actually hear Ross's words and react in horror at the Ebeneezer Scrooge ("then let them die ...") sentiments, I imagine that the Administration will trot out Lawyer Dershowitz (and I really enjoyed "Reversal of Fortune") to argue that Ross said something completely different. The press, present paper included, will report that opinions differ about what was actually said on a live recording, as if Dershowitz were speaking a dialect of Esperanto for which there is no definitive lexicon.
I wonder how many people in the US who would have mindlessly pulled the R lever this coming November have been jolted into rethinking their position. Wilbur Ross won Gail Collins' poll for worst Cabinet Secretary, but I still think it's too close to call between him and Betsy DeVos, who is working tirelessly to make sure that the next generation of voters is as clueless as the current one.
Kudos.
28
Trump’s total lack of preparation for any crisis is matched only by his vacuousness, his complete lack of curiosity, and his lack of any principles save for a narrow, short-sighted view of his own self-interest. Worse, Trump’s governing philosophy is pure Hobbes: that the world, or any given subset of it, is a war of all against all. And that’s what scares me about this outbreak: Trump’s (and his minions’) belief is that if China is suffering, that must be good for us.
God won’t save us from a second Trump term. Only voter turnout can do that.
30
I was struck more by the heartless and despicable nature of Secretary Ross's statement, than his failure to comprehend this administration's economic failings. Hundreds of our fellow human beings have perished, thousands more are ill, and millions are prisoners of fate. We are all in this together, and he alludes to a victory lap? That a high ranking official of our government would essentially gloat over such a tragedy brings shame and disrepute upon our nation. Utterly deplorable.
31
Yes, Mr. Ross. And in an extreme case, it might even reduce the need for jobs in the US.
7
Whereas there is panic and alarm across the world over the deadly coronavirus outbreak leading the WHO to declare the menace to be global public health emergency, the US CommerceSecretary's response treating the coronavirus pandemic as an economic opportunity to the US is not only inhumane and cruel but also reflects the myopia and the science refuting inertia that generally characterises the functioning of the Trump administration, also a marked sign of policy paralysis afflicting the Trump team.
17
Is anyone taken aback that cabinet secretary is more concerned about money than lives?
12
The entire power structure of the country is focused on money over lives. That’s why I pay fifteen hundred a year, over twenty percent of my pretax income for health insurance that covers nothing but one doctor check up a year. I don’t dare even tell the truth about my health to my doctor in case American oligarchs figure out how to make pre-existing conditions as an excuse to send me to some remote location to quietly die. Greed is the only good and capitalism has become toxic. That’s only one reason I hope you consider voting for Sanders. Isn’t it time to raise all boats, including yours?
8
If you’re only making $7500 a year—five times $1500 is $7500 a year, yes?—you should be on one of the Obamacare exchange plans and paying pretty much nothing at all.
And it’s absurd to say that only one checkup is covered, and outright crazy to hide health probs from your doc.
If you’re really a Sanders supporter, skip the gas, please.
@Michael Grove Taken aback, yes. Remotely surprised, no. People like Ross and Trump can't even begin to think about anything at all beyond dollar signs. Everything and everyone is a dollar sign or reducable to one, and victory or defeat are measured only in dollar signs. That's why it doesn't bother them that no one loves them. They can't put dollar signs on love, so it doesn't exist. Hate, yes, they can quantify that by how many votes they can stir up and how many dolts they can get to buy more guns and so on, but love? It is of no importance.
Yes, yesterday I read what Wilbur Ross said about the virus and was shocked. Its very hard for trump and his pals to shock me at this point but Wilbur did it! Whether trump and pals like it or not we live in a global capitalist economy where jobs, products, factories move around over time based on profit. To think that its nice workers might die in one country to force factories to move to another is just nuts.
10
Trump and Ross view everything from the lens of a pluto-kleptocrat - "a world of global [de]value chains" as they skim all productivity gains and long overdue wage increases for themselves - they only see benefits for themselves whether it be through cruel poverty of a rigged economy, climate change, environmental damage, wars and pandemics. It all works to their financial benefit. Indeed, coronavirus will be a boon to the healthcare profiteers who are sure to stay immune behind their gated communities, mansions in the sky and isolated yachts and private islands.
Tariffs are nothing more than a massive Republican tax on the masses that has no effect on the elites who carve out exemptions on their authentic Gucci bags and giveaway subsidies to compensate for the tariffs subsidized by those same tariffs paid for by the rest of us. In other words another wealth transfer from society to the rich.
The trump-certainty-principle guarantees he will mess things up for everyone - he has a long track record. Imagine how much better the economy would be doing for more of us without trump's erratic edicts.
I've been very afraid ever since the Electoral College appointed the trump POTUS. The idea that we the people elect the president is the biggest HOAX in this alleged democracy. End the charade of the Electoral College will do wonders for a more inclusive economy.
3
@PAN
I also have major concerns about the Electoral College. This is the second time that the Popular Vote was overruled by this so called College or Commission. I had severe and catastrophic illness in my family during my work life ( I am now retired) that precluded paying a lot of attention to politics (someone had to keep money coming in but that's another story) so the Electoral College could have done that more than I remember.
The so called reason for the Electoral College is (as I understand it) is to negate the rule of the masses. In other words disallowing the votes of the masses so those who are their "betters" could control government (for the masses own good). I think that's a form of discrimination, but at times I hear stuff that amazes me someone could believe that nonsense. But the the U.S. has in many areas been being "dumb down" by inequalities in our public school system. That seems to be continuing under the leadership of the current Administration.
I had hoped for better (in spite of my common sense) when this Administration came in.
I am truly terrified of what's happening.
Just an old white man's opinion...
1
Mr. Krugman,
The statement of Wilbur Ross used the words “victory lap” in any context regarding the deaths of hundreds and potentially thousands of people in China and elsewhere does not only confirm his lack of economic and scientific understanding. It confirms that he has no soul.
10
How is it possible for so many morally defective individuals be determining our fate? It is despicable to think in terms of an ellusive economic impact over a tragedy by that awful of Ross. The loss of lives through Boeing's negligence caused public hand wringing on stock prices and GPD by Trump and Mnunchin rather than rage an American corporation and inspectors his the flaws in the plane. These people have no shame, I can't imagine how many times they repeat the phrase, "They will get over it." with every obscene they say or do.
5
I was amazed at the insensitivity of the interviewer, Maria Bartiromo and the Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross. Other than some boilerplate thoughts, the two, Ross and Bartiromo both displayed a lack of understanding global economics and as for Ross, he was practically gleeful at the possible gain of the U.S. I would have expected pushback on Bartiromo’s part but it did not come. And these are the “experts”.
8
At every decision point our president and his cronies have chosen the path more likely to lead to chaos. Climate change? Leave the Paris accord, increase support for fossil fuels, drill in formerly protected lands. Public health? Tear at the ACA, limit funding for health research (especially if guns are involved). Economics? Raise tariffs, balloon the deficit with gifts to the already rich. National defense? Kill foreign leaders, denigrate treaties and alliances, pour money into weapons systems designed for prior conflicts, diminish support for cybersecurity, create a Space Force (!), decrease constraints on the use of landmines.
#IMPOTUS should ask the question he posed to blacks when he encouraged them to vote for him but he should broaden the audience more widely: he said, "What have you got to lose?"
We should turn to our founding fathers and answer that question with the final phrase from their Declaration of 1776...
..."our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor."
9
Thank you, Mr. Krugman. I am glad that you addressed Wilbur Ross's comments. Your conclusion is exactly correct. There appears to be no strategic preparation for a health crisis.
6
@Michelle Johnston There is no strategic preparation for anything. There are just photo-ops and announcements and a lot of "get over it." If Trump is voted back in for a second term, we will get what we deserve.
The pandemic is of great personal concern to Donald John Trump, not how Americans might suffer. Fleeing the sinking Titanic, he would have dressed as a woman and climbed over women and children to secure a lifeboat seat. Later, he would tell others how heroic he was, and sue the boat builder and owner.
15
I agree with all of your points, Paul. I would add one more: the singular lack of empathy or concern for the Chinese by the Trump Administration US is a despicable demonstration the MAGA philosophy that is based on atomization and hostility. Unfortunately, I have it on good account from G-d that we are actually all one, interconnected humanity on a planet that is all too fragile and subject to calamity. Don't kid yourselves, these Trump people are the worst of the worst and even evil. Wilbur Ross the worst amongst them.
7
It is hard to discern sympathy for suffering Chinese in Chairman Xi’s actions.
Evidently Trump is mirroring his dear friend’s emotions and actions.
So Ross is saying that if there is an up turn in manufacturing this year, it will be due to a deadly virus ... rather than America’s management of its economy. Well I’m glad we’ve sorted that out.
8
" ... e has surrounded himself with the gang that couldn’t think straight."
The ineptitude of Trump and his economic and trade advisers, and their usual misreading, misinterpretation and misrepresentation of events and the outcomes of their policies, puts me in mind of a cross-stitch my wife hung over our toilet for our children's benefit:
Be a grown-up, not a kid,
Hit the water, not the lid.
3
Undoubtedly, the democrats and liberal media will be the ones Trump will blame if the coronavirus develops a negative economic impact. When a vaccine is finally developed, Trump will probably take credit for it. And when all is back to normal, he'll promote a theory that some evil bats in Wuhan China are actually members of the same broad deep state conspiracy that has been out to get him since inauguration day. And in the end, Trump will claim, this is the best apocalypse ever and no other president in history has ever had an apocalypse anywhere near as perfect as this one.
6
If you ever wondered what it was like to work in any of Trumps failed business's, just hang on. He will do to this country what he did to three casinos, an airline, steak company, liqueur company and a sports franchise.
9
@Vet24 You forgot the "university," the "foundation," the "Tour de Trump,".......
The SARS outbreak that also started in China ended up killing three times more people outside China than in China.
It is estimated that within 10 days the infection rate will peak in China...it will only be getting started in many other countries.
Those western triumphalists who are delighted this virus started in China will soon wish they had a fraction of China's ability to quickly react to and contain this disease.
The Chinese will likely develope a vaccine within the next two months, saving the rest of the world.
If not, start digging he mass graves in Seattle (for starters)
2
If true to form the Trump White House must be looking at Chris Christie for Coronavirus containment Tzar on account of his past success at turning the Ebola virus into a political issue meanwhile and not incidentally painting selfless doctors and nurses who were putting their lives on the line as enemies of the state.
3
Paul, I loved the comedic reference: “the gang that couldn’t think [shoot] straight.” So apropos to apply to the Trump administration, considering the book’s/movie’s Mafia gangs setting. It helps to maintain a sense of humor during challenging times.
2
The effects of the economic stupidity of Trump and his sycophants are mild compared the their attempts to destroy our form of government.
5
My dear Americans,
here in Europe we acknowledge that approx. 30-40% of the population somehow seem perfectly happy with a corrupt Republican party and a narcissistic psychopath as a President.
Here a small number (approx. less then 10%) are also very happy with the situation (extreme right mostly) but for the most people in Europe remain flabbergasted how-in-God's-name-this-is-possible in the USA.
Nevertheless there seems to be a majority of US citizens that disagree with most points from Trump and his cronies and oppose the destruction of the democratic values by the Republican party.
The big questions here for us are:
Why aren't people massively protesting against this?
Why isn't the Democratic party mobilising the people who do care about a sane version of the USA?
Can anyone explain this? It sometimes appears to be as if people already gave up. Disheartening and worrisome.
13
@Martin
Thank you. Here in the USA, a lot of us are wondering the same things.
1
"Accelerate the return of jobs to North America".....wasn't the tax cut supposed to do that? Guess Wilbur has been listening to Mr. Ed too much. Get this through your heads America....no matter what Wilbur and Trump say or do, no matter how many die from Coronavirus or the one that will surely follow, and no matter what the penalty for using Chinese or Mexican labor is, jobs are NOT coming back. If thousands die from this virus and factories in China are affected, um, there are billions of people over there. a willing and able worker pool from which to back fill any openings.The coronavirus won't affect this situation anymore than the flu affects ours. Workers in China are MORE THAN WILLING to work for $5/hr. The calculation that must be made for American corporations is : What is the labor cost where bringing those jobs back here would be cost effective and profits will not be impacted? I sincerely doubt we are anywhere near the point where it makes sense to bring jobs back. The one thing that will most definitely happen as the virus spreads....immunity will follow. But in America the Republicanmoronvirus that spreads ideas like trickle down and if we make corporations richer they will bring back jobs, has no vaccine. All the hand washing in the world has no impact on it's spread.
11
@Walking Man :"jobs are NOT coming back. "
That has been realized since the early 1980s. However at that time it was heartless Republicans who were blamed for the attrition in our manufacturing sector. Remember the bumper stickers saying "Out of a job yet? Keep buying foreign!" or "Buy American!".
BTW, the American middle class began losing ground in 1973.
Who'd have thought that shopping at Walmart would today be the mark of forward-thinking globalists? What a world, what a world.
Breaking news for all the anti-globalists: there is nothing that you could ever do to negate the existence of complex, international interdependency. The world does not operate according to ‘conflict theory’, despite the perverse incentive structures which have produced a media ecosystem characterized by, “if it bleeds, it leads.”
And given that Donald Trump seems to think movies and real life are the same thing, why does no one in his administration have any idea what the ‘Nash equilibrium’ is?
Very Stable Genius, meet ‘A Beautiful Mind’.
1
Unfortunately, there is something that can change the global interdependency in economics, the global interdependency in climate. And sabotaging anything to stave off its collapse is something that Trump and his merry band of incompetents are actively doing.
Simple question for the Republican senators ....is is also now OK for Democratic politicians to ask for foreign election help?
2
Why are guys like this still in the work force? Just retire already!
2
To see benefit from others suffering is both callous and inhumane. I can't imagine that we have Wilbur Ross, a person with such low moral fiber as a cabinet member. So sad.
5
Ask Pompeo if he can identify Wuhan on a map without names! Then let Pompeo yell profanities at Ross and demand that ROSS identify Wuhan on a map without names!
The U.S. has business interests in China and Wuhan whose supply chains are being directly and negatively impacted as a result of the virus travel ban. The ripple effect will be felt, if not already.
Talk about trying to mollify the public with lies.
3
Trump is notoriously germophobic. Since wearing a breathing apparatus like Mad Max's Immortan Joe is probably not good politics (yet), wonder if Trump's rallies will be restructured.
2
I have been afraid since November of 2016 Paul.
6
If the virus can survive for days on hard non-porous surfaces, should not we be concerned on Chinese goods that enter this country? Just askin...
1
Krugman outlines Ross’s obtuse and wrong headed observation from an economic standpoint. But what about from a human standpoint? America’s place in the world is to lead from a moral standpoint. Now, we cheer global pandemics. What about a devastating earthquake in Japan? Trump and Ross will be giddy. We now hope for global calamities, unaware this erodes the thing that has made America special - our humanity. We can only hope that this devilish worldview is an aberration....
137
@Ben Smith It would be interesting to see how our current leaders would handle it if Yellowstone blows up (which most of us wouldn't see because we'd be dead right off the bat). It's overdue, you know. Can you imagine how Trump could possibly handle an emergency even 1/100th that size? Stockpiled paper towels?
12
@Ben Smith Hey, Australia is burning — and Australian wheat exports compete with American farmers. Isn't it great?
107
@Ben Smith
With Trump and his GOP "anything goes" backers, there is no moral leadership that will come from America any longer.
24
I guess maybe the only upside is that, if prices for manufactured goods continue to rise, maybe Americans will begin consuming less. Keeping cell phones longer, repairing existing items, etc, which will be very beneficial for our environment. Now, we just need to get Bernie in there to start actually repairing our environment.
As a retired physician who engaged in planning for the impact of SARS, avian flu and ebola on his specialty practice, I can assure everyone that Mr. Krugman is absolutely accurate in this article. With the impact of air travel, no country can guarantee isolation from such a virus. Not only will a pandemic of this nature harm China, it will disrupt production there, and it will disrupt supply chains. Once such a virus appears to any extent in the US, disruption will be magnified, because people will decrease shopping, decrease face-to-face business, and if they are caring for anyone with a fever, they will need to put themselves on quarantine. With the SARS threat, in the context of specialty medical care, we planned to eliminate all but strictly necessary office practice care, to limit hospitalizations to urgent/emergency only, and to protect the health of our physician and nurse staff by limiting overall contact with the public. You do not know who is incubating a virus, so you limit potential exposure. Obviously, you wash hands as normal practice, but in an epidemic situation, you wash even more. Conventional face masks are of limited utility to prevent infection, so you need the inconvenient HEPA mask, but that still does not fully prevent transmission by droplet into the eyes. So, the cost of coronavirus in the US will be profound, a disruption of normal activity, time and cost for re-education, certainly disruption of elective healthcare.
438
@Jeff
Not to mention the people that have it and cannot afford a doctor or hospital, or to miss work. Without universal healthcare, some of us are doomed, especially with the recent cuts to the CDC.
6
You can almost hear Krugman speaking slowly and using easy words in hopes that SOMEone in the administration will begin to grasp the nature of a multinational inventory chain.
Good luck with it, Mr. K. I’m not sanguine on the chances.
361
@Kalidan Are you expressing disagreement with the article or just bloviating?
3
@Kalidan
Climate change is grossly irrelevant? Tell it to the to the Australians. If they also have to deal with the corona virus in the midst of their extraordinary fire season, it will be insanely difficult.
Try to be less partisan and more aware of how interlinked the world has become.
6
@Naomi D. I wouldn't hold my breath that anyone in the Trump administration will not pay attention to this virus since none believe in science to begin with. They also cut funding for the CDC helping to cripple it when it is needed most.
As far as economic impact, they don't understand anything about the economy. As Dr. Krugman pointed out Trump's tariffs reduced manufacturing and employment.
5
Aside from the "Good News!! People are dying, so there's a job for YOU!!" aspect of Wilbur Ross's insane comments, there is the idiocy of believing that manufacturing can just pick up and move.
Paul Krugman makes the accurate and factual observation that global supply chains can't be interrupted without a lot of bad fallout.
Let's be even more simplistic. Just how fast will we be able to build factories to make steel, phones, washers, air conditioner condensers, and countless consumer products, sub-assemblies and other goods so that we can take advantage of China's deadly epidemic? Factories don't just pop-up. If they did, they'd pop-up in Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, Korea, Taiwan - close to where supplies of things like ore are taken out of the ground.
How, possibly, can we have a Commerce secretary who doesn't know what an ex-urban ex-stay-at-home-mom can figure out? Oh, yeah, Trump's tremendous people.
223
@Cathy Indeed. As a general rule, Commerce secretaries aren't usually the best and brightest; for whatever reason, it tends to be an intellectually low-grade agency (aside from the statistical sub-agencies.) But Ross is really setting new lows, both intellectually and ethically.
141
@Paul Krugman
Thanks Professor Krugman for your follow up comments! Great innovation.
12
@Paul Krugman Which is worse, simple ignorance or the willful kind.
11
In my many years of corporate manufacturing life in America, we were required to do SWOT analyses that seemed silly and of remote probability. But occasionally, they had to be confronted when bad things happened.
What are Apple's or Ford's or Honeywell's plans in the face of severe disruption, whether from a virus or politics or climate? And how do these plans affect their stock valuations?
3
@John Duffy The stock market is such a casino that it's impossible to determine what would happen to stock prices. They go down, gamblers buy and they go up, gamblers sell and they go down again. Our "economy" if you measure it by the stock market is a house of cards (pun intended).
1
Wilbur Ross' quote, that he “didn’t want to talk about a victory lap,” but that the coronavirus “will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America,” echoes Ebenezer Scrooge's comment about the poor: "Then let them die and decrease the surplus population."
This, combined with the other headline I just read, "Trump Administration Moves to Relax Ruling Against Killing Birds" -- combined with the incessant lying and grandstanding I've been listening to during the impeachment trial-- piled upon three years of unveiled contempt for everything living, convinces me that the men of Trump will pay any price and bear any burden to prove themselves the most heinous men on earth at the present moment.
647
@ML
"Trump Administration Moves to Relax Ruling Against Killing Birds"
Does that mean that windmills are ok again?
37
@ML I have been hearing about man made global warming for nearly 50 years. How actively we have chosen the ways to handle it can be debated. But we have chosen the ways: isolation, contraception, and eventual solar-powered cars and homes for the wealthy; population reduction via disease and starvation for the poor.
10
@ML
"Then let them die and decrease the surplus population" has been pretty much the Trump administration's view toward every living thing on the planet that might inconvenience the obscenely wealthy's ability to amass more wealth.
7
Major epidemic breaking out and certain people are focused only on economic implications. Got to love unfettered capitalism with its focus on the truly important things - like possible lower profits.
460
@cynicalskeptic, and possible job losses. Nothing important.
16
@cynicalskeptic What Dr. Krugman did not say, is that a pandemic could be a "black swan" event, that could trigger a global recession, or worse. Yes, we need to be concerned about health and sickness issues, and do all we can to limit the spread of disease, but what can we possibly do about the global economy?
4
@cynicalskeptic Especially Americans usually focus only on pocketbook issues. How do you think Trump was elected?
2
There is something deeply pathological about any leader who treats a pathogen as some kind of victory. This is a sick, sick administration.
905
@NM Sadder yet is the potential that Trump will get the idea that using such pathogens as a tool of war will help his economic future even more. With advisers like Ross, and the Evangelical-bring-on-the-end-days "leaders" hovering around, how can that go wrong?
31
@NM
pun, pun intended! Amazingly the one thing they have not had is serious health issues. Alas in this country there's a very strong association between wealth and health. And most of the folks in this admin have no lack of coin.
5
@David please do not give him any ideas....
2
The coronavirus has caught the attention of the world because it is lethal and spreading fast and so it is understandable that work on a vaccine is of the upmost importance, and must be gotten to all at risk...potentially billions of people...so this will be expensive. Willbur Ross sees a gold lining in this for america and maybe if it helps focus attention on the meed for "health care for all" it will be.
The disruptive capacity of pandemics is not new news, but the idea that the disruption can be quarantined or held at bey by high walls is medieval thinking. The only way to address the disruptive effects is to have healthcare available to all in danger of falling ill. A fever and a cough will not select out people with the right health care coverage, it can find its way to someone without insurance , underinsured or just visiting America.
American hospital emergency rooms can easily be overwhelmed by the worried well and fearful of having had contact with someone known to have been infected. Intensive care units can filled rapidly placing hospital resources under severe strain. In short Ross does not understand the economics of health care and does not understand why an emergency health insurance system needs to be organized and yes...funded. It is clear that America is not prepared economically for the effects of a pandemic on our medicals system. It is also clear that our medical system is putting us in as much danger as the coronavirus itself!
5
Krugman's point about how interdependent manufacturing is, with pretty much the whole world's economy involved in making one product, raises, for me, the issue of how fragile the world economy is. Disruption in one place, like a disease in China, disrupts economies everywhere.
With the climate crisis coming as a huge disruptor, one that the Pentagon speculates could cause the collapse of our economic infrastructure in as little as a couple decades, all this global interdependence could end rather badly. We don't just need to switch to renewable energy and regenerative agriculture, we need resilient economies, economic relationships that can handle the slings and arrows of the climate crisis.
The disruption from the coronavirus is telling us something, how fragile the world economy is.
7
@Wade Sikorski :"and regenerative agriculture,"
Sorry, agriculture is also on the globalists hit-list. Farming globalism along with those urban farm-a-lots you see here and there are the forward-thinking paths for the US.
What a surprise, you're critical of Trump again, claim he and his advisors are no good, and state that the only reason the US is doing well is good luck. As any successful person will say, tongue in cheek, better lucky than good.
7
What a surprise! Trump and his advisors are still worthy of criticism! And people still notice!
85
@Dr B
Umm, the US isnt doing well because of luck. Its doing well because by cutting taxes and increasing spending the economy has been "pump primed". Any economy where the government is, in effect, spending money hand over fist will do well. And thats why the US economy under trump is doing well. The problem is, sooner or later, the government will have no money to spend on anything. And the simple fact is that the US has been in that predicament for a long long time.
So enjoy this while it lasts. Sooner or later the music will stop playing and the money will be gone. At that stage the US economy is in for an outright disaster, brought to you by trump and wilbur ross. But at that stage it will be a democrat president left to clean up the mess, which is what happens every time - republican voodoo economics leading to disaster, and democrats forced to spend their time governing cleaning up the republicans' mess.
185
@Dave As long as the GDP grows, the debt will be generating net positive returns and will not be an issue.
1
In the lighter side just watched a comedy series Medical Police on Netflix (don’t read if you don’t want to know the plot), a student creating a virus that turns out to be deathly and a CDC officer releasing it simultaneously in major cities world wide to cause panic chaos just so CDC could get the funding it so badly needed just in such events. It is a really funny show.
On the serious side China is trying to prove it has 21st technology to showcase its advancements. In the past few years America has fallen behind in research engineering technology, with current administration giving science further demotion. (Except for rocket science meshing NASA).
This is our chance to demonstrate our readiness and our technical expertise.
1
I don't trust Wilbur Ross or the Trump administration with economic crisis either. However, may I offer an alternative perspective?
Perhaps the low prices associated with global economic supply chains don't reflect the true risks associated with global economic supply chains. We should consider this question carefully in the context of global climate change.
China is dealing with a epidemic which will ground workers indefinitely. Said workers can't arrive at factories to produce widgets used in XYZ US production. US production therefore for suffers and prices rise. Okay. We get that.
The bad news is the epidemic is happening at the peak of Chinese travel worsening the impact of the disease. The good news is the epidemic is happening at the peak of Chinese travel meaning most supply chains have already planned for shipment delays due to Chinese New Years. The factories are mostly closed this month anyway.
However, lets imagine this were a flood or a drought or some other severe climate related event. What happens to US production and/or consumption when extreme weather events happen elsewhere?
Japan’s 2011 tsunami was caused by an earthquake but the experience provides a telling example. Natural events like disease or weather emergencies are already becoming more likely with climate change. The more extended your supply chain, the more vulnerable your industry. You need to diversify each piece your supply chain geographically.
Smaller scales. Prices rise anyway.
4
The new corona virus poses a much bigger potential threat to the economy than disruption of imports if it reaches pandemic proportions. If it's no worse than, say, a really bad seasonal flu year, millions of Americans will become ill and 70-80,000 will die. In addition to not understanding this, Secretary Ross seems not to understand or care that these (like the Chinese victims!) would be actual human beings suffering and dying.
Given the level of competence of the upper levels of the administration I have little confidence that the government will have an effective response should a pandemic occur.
20
People aside, our stores are packed with items produced in crowded Chinese factories. Open that box and Chinese air emerges with the packaging. The coronavirus promises to shake the world but it does look survivable -- at least in countries with national health care.
4
Coronavirus is irrelevant for economics. Much more people are affected by flu. Compared with the impact of Flu on economy, Coronavirus is rounding error. Flu is much more potent and deadly and vaccines don't really protect against it.
4
Sure Wilbur Ross' cluelessness about economics is concerning, his vulgarity in wishing sickness and death on the Chinese people revolting, but coronavirus brings sharply into focus how truly dangerous Trump's ignorance and hubris really are. Too early to know for sure but it appears that coronavirus is unlikely to go pandemic, perhaps less dangerous in the end than SARS or MERS. Let's devoutly hope and pray so. But if America faced a real pandemic can you imagine this administration, for that matter any GOP administration or politician, leading a successful or effective American response? Economics are important. We all need to provide for our families and that's economics. But Trump should teach us that intangibles like honesty, decency, compassion, intellectual curiosity, the humility to listen to others and especially those with knowledge and experience, and at least a modicum of intelligence are far more essential characteristics to look for in our leaders than the candidates supposed personal economic success.
62
KenC. Sure; he has that in him!
The textile industry in the UK depended on imported cotton. The US textile industry had a comparative advantage due to access to raw materials, i.e. what made America great. So why, other than for political reasons, would the US cede its manufacturing advantage to China?
@Vivien Because China is OK with slave (cheap) labor, and, at least to date, the US is not.
1
@Vivien The costs. US companies have moved manufacturing jobs overseas in great quantities due to costs. When it comes to economics and making money politics be damned.
The textile workers of Manchester went on strike to support anti-slavery efforts in the US. Public health crises like this - as with the climate emergency - know no boundaries. Wilbur Ross is clearly a fool, and a cynical one at that.
1
No, Team Trump, the Coronavirus isn't Good for America. Wow. The patriarchal worldview in full view. And as patriarchs are want to do thinking in ladders. People are up or down, disposable or valuable, higher or lower than others. When respect for one another replaces both unfounded rejection and unlimited reverence we can think differently. We can recognize that we need one another, no one has all the answers and see the inherent equality in one another. Everyone and everything has rights. The majority are not here so that people on the top can stand on the backs of those on the bottom.
29
Coronavirus or even the fear of the coronavirus could easily impact the 2020 Census. Especially the Group Quarters and Non Response Follow Up campaigns.
3
In my many conversations with conservatives I’ve found they have generally embraced Scrooge’s view on the reducing the “surplus population”. How evangelicals square this circle is a mystery.
31
Scrooge did say that, as Dickens was channeling Malthus. But Malthus lamented the loss of life. I don't think the far right do.
21
I’ve heard similar comments from hardcore environmentalists on the Left, to be fair. They are sure the Earth would be better off without us. Maybe, but I don’t see them volunteering to be the first ones off the ship.
@EW You have figured out that Donald Trump IS Thanos.
Krugman praised the European economic model just weeks before the eurozone crisis began ,and argued before Argentina’s 2014 default that the country’s economy was a “remarkable success story.” I don't trust Krugman.
7
I think all of this, wildfires in Australia, Trump in the U.S., Brexit mess in the UK, misinformation on global warming, all fall squarely on the shoulders of the Murdoch family, all of them, every last one of them.
153
@Martin
Intriguing idea. I'm not sure I buy all of it, but it is true the Murdochs ( Rupert is from Australia) DO control a lot of the world's information. And they did give us what Ailes us. (sorry) But do they really have that much power? Remember, Ailes and the Murdoch organization in general, were originally against Trump.
2
@Martin I also think they were helped a little by V. Putin & Co.
2
@Martin yes misinformation as a political weapon has damaged our ability to have a functional public sector as we enter into an age of ever increasing complexity of challenges. Ultimately the Murdoch driven populism is a disease worse than any microbe because it paralyzes rational pro active decision making.
8
“The commerce secretary just flunked microbe economics.”
Well, that’s no surprise. He’s in no position to address life-forms with actual evolutionary advantages.
65
I believe Mr. Ross really means that because of the widespread concern and some subtle panic, millions of our people will seriously curtail their consuming products, most of which are made in China, thus seriously impacting the economy. Then the result will be a deep concern within the business and financial communities about how to avoid it again, and manufacturing will return.
2
@PATRICK and millions of Americans will sign up for those low wage jobs - or will we see a surge in wage inflation ala the 1970's?
8
@PATRICK I disagree. Far to many Americans live paycheck to paycheck. This means that they are only buying what they need as in food, shelter, transportation,etc. It is NOT widespread 'concern' or 'subtle panic'. It is much higher than concern. Many people are already talking in terms of 'What if'. The death toll in China will be in the thousands. Ross is saying that because the disruption caused by the virus to the Chinese economy will be so great that US companies will move factories here. That means that this disruption would have to translate into years. It would take at least 2 years to design,build and train workers for such an operation. Not a nice picture for China. And this is in the middle of swine flu resulting in the loss of 95% of their pigs. Pork is the leading source of protein in their diet.
Earlier tonight my wife and I went to a local theater to watch the National Theatre Live presentation of Arthur Miller’s “All My Sons.” Although it was written more than 70 years ago, it could not be more relevant, to both Ross’s comments and the Boeing crashes (it is based on a remarkably similar circumstance to the latter). The excellent and illuminating performance will be shown again in theaters across the country on Saturday.
29
@Mark Eisner : On a non-political note, thanks for the reminder about NTL -- and I hope you're enjoying life in the beloved Ithaca (CU alum here).
Agreed, "he has faced essentially no crises, domestic or foreign, that weren’t of his own making", but even here Trump has shown his callous ineptitude and cruelty as shown by Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico. His response to other non-Trump disasters is likely to be worse as he feels he is more emboldened by his anticipated acquittal in the impeachment trial.
49
@josh
Acquittal? Trial? What trial? Mitch didn't allow a trial.
@josh
With Alan Dershowitz on the Supreme Court, what could possibly go wrong?
The Dictator rules!
Whether the virus turns out to be a boon or bane, this immediate situation reminds me of a fact that is almost never addressed and seldom considered, apparently. What happens if the "value chain" around the world suddenly stops working? What happens if you can't import teddy bears and micro-video cams and everything else from China and Asia generally?
We have made ourselves all but utterly dependent on shipping schedules, international flights and high speed communication links. A war could break all of that overnight. This epidemic, if it blows up into a complete threat around the world, could have something like the same impact.
This is a warning to us and a warning to companies like Apple, Dell and hundreds of others that are completely at the mercy of having other people half a world away assemble the products they sell. The corporations and their CEOs don't care...at least, they don't care until they have to care and then they could go into a complete panic.
Watch this situation very carefully and keep your hand on the sell button on your stocks. China could be the hardest hit but all the world could share in the misery.
77
In my first line above, I should have written "a boon or bane economically". I left out the word "economically" by mistake.
2
@Doug Terry Yes, we've built a world economy that assumes frictionless logistics, and it's more vulnerable than many realize. It's one of those rare cases where the short run is much more dangerous than the long run. Given time, we can deglobalize if necessary. But not with a couple of weeks' notice.
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@Paul Krugman Hi Paul. I don't see any reason to assume that Ross was talking about deglobalizing in two weeks rather than the kind of long-term deglobalization you've just mentioned.
Ross: "it does give businesses yet another thing to consider when they go through their review of their supply chain.”
It is not unreasonable, on it's face, to think that businesses might consider China's ongoing disease problems when making long-term supply chain decisions. I'd love to hear your insights about that, rather than about something he doesn't seem to have said.
It’s almost certain that a cure for the coronavirus will be found.
But where will it come from? The U.S. Center for Disease Control, with its newly enhanced Division of Thoughts and Prayers?
Or will it come from China? And if so, what happens to the value of U.S. medical technology when the premiere U.S. institution is eclipsed?
Wilbur Ross is a failure as a human being, but we’ve come to expect that. What’s genuinely worrying is the potential failure of the U.S. medical system to protect the U.S. public. No one knows if this might happen, but it has an economic cost that can’t be offset by an uptick in cremations.
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@Global Charm The vaccine needed will almost certainly be first produced in Australia or China as they are already streaking ahead with developing one. But it will be many weeks before commercial quantities are released. America surely has the facilities to do the same on a grand scale. Meanwhile the basic principles of identifying and isolating signature cases and tracing contacts should limit the spread of this infection with its roughly 2% mortality.
1
@Global Charm Or Australia?
I have always been suspicious of Republicans.
It always seemed that they were all about selfishness and greed.
Over the years all of their policies appeared designed to benefit the rich at the expense of the country.
The country’s infrastructure has been crumbling without any concern.
Republican plans always involve “privatization”, meant to benefit the rich.
The Republican Senate voting against the truth, country, and Constitution unfortunately doesn’t surprise me at all.
It fits a pattern, and I would have been shocked if they would have done the right thing.
We have found the swamp.
107
@Grove
The swamp is deeper and covers a wider area than we readily imagine.
Kirsten Sinema, Joe Manchin and Doug Jones are said to be on the acquittal side of the vote. Others have voted with a Republicans on rollbacks and judicial appointments more than half the time.
People need to look up their senators’ votes.
4
@Grove - There was once a possum named Pogo that lived in Okefenokee Swamp. He famously said, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”
2
Apparently anything that happens during trump's watch that trump hasn't opposed is good for us and trump will soon be taking credit for it while telling us how great it is for us. While we disintegrate further.
35
@rivvir You are correct. He claimed credit yesterday for the direction in which the wind was blowing. The sun came out briefly and he tweeted 51 times.
Back during Obama, everything bad that happened was, without a doubt, Obama's fault. They were all over him when gasoline prices hit above $4 a gallon. No one mentioned his name when the price dropped to much closer to $2.
Has any Trump supporter noted that America became the world's largest oil producer during Obama's years? No. Of course, Obama didn't do it but all the talk about how Democrats were "job killers" rings a bit hollow when you consider............facts.
123
@Doug Terry Republicans do a better job of telling their supporters lies about how they are responsible for everything good for the middle and low income supporters and the upper income supports as long as they keep the tax cuts coming and the regulators going. It is all about, this is why Republicans are going after a very big source of money called Social Security!. Middle and lower income can not make it without Social Security and Medicare, without much larger wage increases. This population is either on SS themselves or their mothers and fathers are depending on it for health care and food. Republicans are about to start a campaign to tell their supports taxation they will be better without it (ie George Bush tried). This time they will be more successful, they are coming off a trial that they say a president is above the law and their supporters are going alone with it. Republicans have tested the model and it worked.
5
From Paul Krugman's first column following the 9/11 attacks:
"Ghastly as it may seem to say this, the terror attack -- like the original day of infamy, which brought an end to the Great Depression -- could even do some economic good.
So the direct economic impact of the attacks will probably not be that bad. And there will, potentially, be favorable effects.
The driving force behind the economic slowdown has been a plunge in business investment. Now, all of a sudden, we need some new office buildings."
Pot, kettle.
8
@Charles
Rather than pots and kettles, I think you are discussing apples and oranges. PK stated the obvious truth, made clear by WW2 ending the Great Depression, that new spending to replace destroyed infrastructure, no matter the how tragic the circumstances, generates new economic activity. I haven’t read anyone argue that the Coronavirus is going to lead to new infrastructure being built in the US.
50
@Charles Dog, tail.
Disasters, including hurricanes, produce a burst of economic activity in the areas where they hit. Workers from around the region and nation rush in to clean up and re-build. It is bad for the residents and insurance companies, but contractors, lumber and other construction material sales go through the roof.
As for 9-11, my guess is that Krugman was using his word processor a bit loosely at that moment. However, how about the three to four trillion dollars in defense spending? How about another trillion for security efforts? Airport security alone represents hundreds of billions of dollars spent. I remember sitting next to a guy on a flight out west who told me his business would benefit if G.W. Bush were elected to a second term.
We had a massive boom under Bush pushed upward by defense spending and wild and reckless credit. Maybe you owe Krugman his props.
21
@Charles
Monetizing catastrophes of any sort is not much my cup of tea. Can't compartmentalize hurt/concern for the losses incurred by so many away from what are the cold, harsh numbers of economic loss/benefit that accompany many catastrophic circumstances.
I took a direct hit from Hurricane Hugo as it obliterated the SC coast before continuing thru the center of the state and wreaking destruction not only on the Upstate but also Charlotte, parts of the NC Piedmont and even areas of the western NC mountains. The path was wide, the destruction unrelenting and the losses enormous.
First reaction was not thoughts about any monetizing benefits for our small region. We were digging out, helping each other and then broadening our reach.
But, as the sense of loss receded, it became clear that, even as much of the loss was irreplaceable, there was a monumental rebuilding process ahead.
The construction industry has the longest food chain in our economy. And, for nearly four years, it transformed the economic landscape of a region that had long struggled. I still hear old-timers talk about opportunities had during those years and how those opportunities enabled them to take a "step-up."
I've got no time for those who can only see tragedy in terms of monetary benefit. I first see the suffering. In time, though, perspective alters and creativity/innovation come into play. To ignore the possibilities is criminal.
Received note from Pa. friend: All's lost, All's found.
5
Has it occurred to anyone that China is a huge US loan creditor? Our Treasury owes Chinese investors and government trillions of dollars.
Now, imagine that this (relatively, for now) small outbreak balloons and, more than just disrupting supply chains, seriously tanks the Chinese economy.
Ya think they'll call in their loans to make up for it? And then what happens when the US defaults on those loans? The Treasury's credit rating tanks. And then you can say hello to the next Great Depression.
69
@Timothy
Trump usually solves his business failures by declaring bankruptcy. Now he can do that to America. Be assured he won't be on the street selling apples, during that Great Depression.
29
@Timothy
Why, I'm guessing we'll be selling off our National Parks to the highest bidder to satisfy our fiduciary obligations.
26
@Timothy
Yes it has occurred to just about everyone who reads this paper but most commenters always get it wrong. China owns about 5 percent of total U.S. Treasuries. This peaked back in 2014 between 5 and 6 percent and they have either been rolling over or slowly lessening their holdings since then. So this big 1 trillion deficit that we have been running hasn't been financed at all by China. There are many, many other countries that enable our deficit and are happy to do it. To your other point about what would happen if they started to sell? Well, not a whole lot. Sure there would be some gyrations for a short period of time but you know who has more money that the 1.11 T that China owns? The Federal Reserve and the Treasury. That 1.11 T is but a road bump compared to the 4.5 T that they conjured up for qualitative easing. Interest rates didn't go up when they put that onto their books and it wouldn't go up it China sold all its holdings. Wikipedia is your friend.
12
Paul, indeed I am afraid that the Republicans will face crises of not just further hair loss at that hands of shampoo capitalism, but also decades of Democratic landslides.
6
Paul. Baby. Sweetheart. There are two versions of unintended consequences. Good and bad. Both, as in this case, can in fact be in play.
7
Some day in the future historians will write about this administration and how detached they are from reality. Donald J Trump has a way of underestimating a crisis. The only thing that he seems to care about is using a crisis to attempt to further his hollow political ambition.
35
@Sean
And his bank account lest we forget!!
I was horrified to see the "committee" of people in Washington gathered over the virus. Many were smiling and it seemed more like a photo op than a serious consideration of how this virus could impact our citizens. American Airlines still runs a plane back and forth to China. Really? That is just crazy. Someone who is an informed health official needs to take charge of monitoring this epidemic and keeping people safe. Republicans can get this deadly virus as much as Democrats. Plus, Trump does these huge rallies, and who knows if someone will be carrying the Corona virus.
27
@K.M
I am sure if I said what I was really thinking, in response to your last sentence, my remark wouldn't get past the NYT comment editors.
The good news is that President Trump thinks outside the box. The bad news is that the box is where human sanity resides.
142
DJT doesn’t so much as think outside of the box as he acts outside of the box without thinking first.
1
This callous administration is more worried about the economy than they are about the vast number of people who have already and still might contract this virus. Unfortunately China kept this virus a tight secret before they finally realized just how hard it would hit. Also unfortunate is that we might have to do without a few things that come from China. Small sacrifice considering the alternative.
5
Maybe the newly minted Space Force can be deployed to battle the evil coronavirus? With that new extra bloated Military budget surely there's a few bucks left over for fighting a viral invasion?
29
@crystal Those few extra bucks have already been stolen to build a wall.
If this proves to be the much feared global pandemic, how will the USA cope with millions of your citizens with no medical coverage. To my reading there are vast areas of your country with no hospitals or doctors. I envision the scenes in the Monty Python movie dealing with the Black Death and bodies being thrown on carts.
The mega rich will retreat to.their holes in New Zealand. Will New Zealand let trump in?
24
@bcer Under the current government, the answer to that would be a resounding no. It's a coalition of PM Jacinda Ardern's Labour, NZ First (an anti-immigration party) and the Greens. The Peter Thiel case did not go unnoticed and there's been a tightening up of a lot of regulations.
There is an election in September and a good chance the National Party will be re-elected so things may change though they are aware where public sentiment is on this issue.
Trump did visit once looking at casino licenses and was roundly rejected.
He has spoken highly of NZ especially the golf courses.
Please don't tell him about our anti-nuclear status!
4
My fears grow exponentially each day. The ill treatment of our country, its people, its environment, its laws and policies, its federal employees as well as the heinous treatment of the military and the legislative branches. America has been in this high alert crisis during the entire presidency of this odious man Trump. Lord help the United States as we don't seem to be able ourselves to protect her.
35
Honestly didn't know who the Acting Surgeon General was until today. Maybe she could introduce herself to the country by explaining to Mr. Ross and the Trump administration that diseases in general, and this coronavirus specifically, is BAD. As an important aside, influenza is killing a lot of Americans every year.
20
@Doober
yes there have been eight thousand deaths this yr in the u.s. that is wayyyyyyy more than normal. mostly kids and elderly. also, the acting surgeon general is one of at least 25 positions that are acting. they are supposed to be only acting in that position for no more than 120. trump has acting directors in at least 25 positions. wonder how come congress hasn't brought that up. well the senate anyway. and USDA fired close to 200 scientists since they didn't want to relocate (all of them)to k.c. mo and had only 30 days notice.
some of them study world agriculture to see how climate change affects world agriculture. science well GOP doesn't believe in that anyway unless it is to save their life.
8
@Doober
She may be too busy taking healthcare away from poor people to worry about a pandemic.
The commerce secretary did not just fail microbiology; he failed decency. But we shouldn't worry about Donald Trump failing at anything. His base is secure in the knowledge that he's a genius. And that means that if the bug really became a problem here no one wearing a MAGA hat would get it.
44
@Maria Rodriguez Dershowitz will crawl out to make the argument that the coronavirus is Obama's fault.
Forget about economics. What kind of a inhumane jerk talks about an outbreak of a deadly disease in terms of how favorably it will impact job growth here?
But in fairness to Ross, at least he didn't gleefully design policy to maximize separation of families and put children in cages, like Stephen Miller.
Is there even a shred of empathy or decency in the entire Trump administration?
98
@Jack Sonville
no but Wilbur ross is the one that tried to sneak in that question on the census about citizenship. so he is no better. they say he is worse on bankruptcies than trump. he is the one of the people that formed ALEC. that is why so many local, city and statehouses run by GOP .
17
@Jack Sonville
No.
@Jack Sonville - No.
trumpists, especially their Savior, have a bizarre fantasy that there are two places to do business - China and the US. If they aren't in China, then they must go to the US. Wrong. There are in fact other places: India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh, even European places like Bulgaria, Poland, and Romania.
So trumpists, if you were a business owner with a plant in China, assuming you want to move, what would you do? Move from China, a low cost location, to the US with among the highest costs in the world? If so, why weren't you there in the first place?
22
Secretary Ross probably thinks that the destruction of Europe and Asia in World War II was the greatest thing that every happened for the American economy.
16
@John Graybeard - Unfortunately it's likely he'd be right. Finally got us out of the 1930's malaise.
1
@John Graybeard
It sure helped as an unintended consequence
If you are an entrepreneur to ponder on building a new factory here in the USA or in China, you might be a little more biased to the USA after this unfortunate outbreak to everyone in the world, and especially to Chinese.
Wilbur Ross is the chief sales officer in the USA and he might want to sell more products and services made in America at all costs. It surely is not a good timing to show such desire, but we can regard this as his focus and passion for his job at least.
Now, I can see he is working for the country as much as he did for his own fortune without doubt.
1
@Young - "...ponder on building a new factory here in the USA or in China,..."
Except as someone noted as i was going down the line before reaching yours, there are other countries in the world. How much American business moved from china not to the US but to other low cost producers during the trade war, and had been planning for that eventuality while tpp was still in the running? Need to broaden your horizon some.
8
The week in Summary: The President of the United States may use operatives of a foreign sovereign nation, friend or foe, to obtain possibly indictable material on a possible political adversary to weaponize his reelection IF said reelection is for the good of the country. The U.S. Department of Commerce declares that the outbreak of a plague causing mass casualties is a new form of stimulus for the U.S. economy. Finally, probably no witnesses in the Senate Trial of Donald John Trump, President of the United States, even those who could say “…he didn’t do it!” As one famous TV journalist said; “Goodnight, and good luck.”
49
@HANK - "...IF said reelection is for the good of the country."
Nahh, if i recall correctly doesn't even have to IF it was good for us, just IF he believed it would be good for us. I think it's time for dershowitz to absent himself to some tibetan retreat before he completely destroys his i'm not sure earned good reputation.
1
@HANK
haven't heard that 4eva. Edward r. murrow. best journalist ever.
1
@rivvir Thx, for the correction. Good recall of his basically nonsensical presentation.
Reality always wins. God forbid we have an actual serious crisis, like a pandemic, while this band of aggressively ignorant incompetents has its hands on the wheel.
25
There is one thing we know: Trump can always make it worse, no matter how bad it is.
80
Total agreement with Mr. Krugman... but boneheadedness isn't limited to Trump's cabinet. We got an example today from the pages of the NYTimes: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/coronavirus-china-government.html
Nicholas Kristof blames the virus outbreak on the authoritarian nature of the Chinese government. Yes, China has an authoritarian government, but, NO, having an authoritarian government was not the cause of the outbreak. WHO, and others have praised China's response. Our own democratic government was monumentally slow to respond to the AIDS epidemic.
11
@ShenBowen The Chinese suppressed disclosure and reporting of the outbreak for over a month. Punished and jailed doctors and writers reporting on the outbreak. Thereby worsening outcomes and allowing millions of potentially exposed individuals to travel with impunity.
I suggest reading the story before commenting.
22
@macdray
Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine have articles from the Chinese researchers. They did amazing work. To figure out this was a new virus, sequence it, and treat patients with ECMO and aggressive therapies was impressive. They are running controlled drug trials now. The front line workers deserve our respect.
4
@ShenBowen
Sorry, no. China's authoritarian government was responsible for hiding the virus for so long and aiding in the spread. No worries, we are headed in that direction, with Trump's one-man rule. We the people will never how we stand, until smacked in the face.
1
This is why we need to wrap up impeachment ASAP. Republicans will never remove him and we need to spend every moment before Election Day showing America that The Trump Presidency is a failure on the merits.
25
Either he is the most cold-hearted capitalist around . And/or he thinks something akin to a biological nuclear armagedon is somehow good for one side.
Of course he made his mark in business by being a Vulture Investor in bankruptcies. Guess he likes picking thru the aftermath of catastrophes.
17
@Mr T
DJT may very well believe an epidemic is good for his side, just as he thinks chaos is an opportunity to pick up some cheap real estate and make a few billions.
@Mr T ... yes, vultures do pick through the aftermath of catastrophes.
Hard to fathom how news media and governments are crying wolf over a virus that's a blip on the mortality radar but continue business-as-usual with the climate crisis, which is already upon us and wreaking havoc that will eventually disrupt all life as know it.
Colossal devastation will follow a small rise in global temperature, with frightening preview trailers already playing across the globe, including the bush conflagration in Australia, which is in the death grip of the fossil fuel mafia and their bought and paid for political apologists.
While the bush fires rage close to Australia's Capitol city, corrupt politicians yawn in response while dramatically dispatching jumbo 747s to fetch a few Australians from a viral panic to be quarantined on an island like the non-white refugees sequestered until some other country takes them.
Forget "roos" and koalas, Australia's future icon is an ostrich, a creature not known for its intelligence but so far has proved smarter than Aussies and their preferred leaders.
The UN health agency, WHO, today declared a global health emergency, which sounds significant but only if we ignore the fact that the UN declared a similar global emergency over climate change years ago.
Wilbur Ross, a multi-millionaire notorious for fleecing tens of millions from his employees, is America's answer to Scott Morrison, the Aussie dunce of a prime minister.
When the world needs smart, all we get is stupid while a tiny few get very rich.
43
Paul reports: "Last week the White House basically admitted that tariffs on steel and aluminum have done more harm than good, ... the administration’s answer isn’t a reconsideration of its policies — it is to impose more tariffs, on a wider range of products."
Your Administration is saying: "The whippings will continue until morale improves."
Both thoughts come from the same kind of unilluminated mind.
23
At the risk of repeating myself: "If Trump said the virus is under total control in our country, I'd be very, very concerned since he is ordinarily under-informed and generally dishonest. Only someone who routinely neglects details communicates judgements of that type. He's exactly the type of leader one does not want in a real crisis."
51
There are other aspects of economic impact that are not quantifiable and thereby outside the realm of Wilbur Ross and Paul Krugman---that is the impending loss of intellectual capital for China. Educated Chinese professionals and students who were the backbone of China's economic miracle will emigrate, and further the ones in US schools will be less likely to go back, making it difficult for China to compete in the long run.
1
@AKA China will hopefully crack down on the live animal markets that spawn these viruses. China has 4 people for every one of us, they graduate 60,000 + engineers every year, they have more capacity to train and educate people by far than the US, so no, this won't set them back much and there won't be mass migrations from China.
1
@AKA wishful thinking. China will continue to evolve technically as it improves its infrastructure much faster than we are. They will climb out of this virus and keep all those brilliant students.
1
Corona virus is potentially 'a BLACK SWAN' event. Think of derivatives tied to YUAN, YEN, DOLLAR, further tied to interest rates, mortgages of intl real estate, industrial metals, oil, and the reduction of velocity of circulation, coming from international financial paralysis . And it cannot get any more ironic that 20% of the world pharmaceuticals are produced in China. It is time for 'the junk bond nation to FACE THE NATION.
14
Virus evolve in order to survive. They have billions of potential host in the human population alone. Include the animal kingdom in the equation and the odds of having to confront a virus we can't ward off becomes highly probable. The climate crisis is bond to make matters worse.
The fact that the Trump Administration is in the process of rolling back environmental protections, while preventing proper medical care for residents , citizen and non-citizen alike means that we are not prepared to deal with eventual pandemic when it does arrive. Believe a pandemic can not happen here, read about the Spanish Flu of 1918. This is no time for apathy.
64
We can only hope that a real epidemic breaks out in the halls of governance.
38
There's another part to the economic impact - the threat of a global pandemic is ever present and real. It probably won't be coronavirus but new bugs will keep popping up, eventually we will be faced with a new Spanish flu. Meanwhile we're cutting CDC funding and weakening our public health capacity. It's sad that our leaders don't care about safeguarding American's safety and economic well-being from a potential catastrophe, but only how to line their own pockets if it occurs.
83
@Haiku R The Spanish flu occurred 110 years ago.
Statistic epidemiology tells us that based on the genetics
from the last epidemic, Donald Trump may die from the influenza virus this year. What do you think? Will you celebrate his demise?
It’s good for the mega-wealthy, who will get top care and survive. Those are the only folks Team Trump has ever cared about.
67
Wilbur Ross was the guy who said steel and aluminum tariffs didn't matter because aluminum was such a small part of the value of a can of beer.
But it turned out (surprise, Wilbur!) that steel and aluminum are much bigger components of farm equipment, cars, trucks, oil and gas pipelines and other stuff. How is a Commerce Secretary supposed to know stuff like that? OK, he did have some experience selling a US steel company off to a foreign steelmaker, while foisting their pension obligations off on the US government.
But steel price increases over 30% led to US manufacturing slowdowns and quiet tariff rollbacks to the biggest importers to the US, South Korea, Mexico and Canada.
But Wilbur has earned permanent immunity by bailing out Trump in his casino fiasco and allowing him to retain control.
That is how the Big Money Club works.
166
@Look Ahead I'd agree with you except that I don't think Trump knows that his trade policies have failed.
84
@Look Ahead Actually the opposite is the case. The aluminum is much more valuable than the beverage it holds.
5
@Paul Krugman Trump has actual trade policies? From here, it looks like his only policy is tariff and bully.
11
I am in Beijing. I am beginning to get more afraid of the fear in the United States than of getting coronavirus in China, which at the moment is .0000005 of the population infected, and a much smaller number of deaths. Some perspective please?
36
@Bob Fonow
But, Bob, you know money in the US is made by instilling fear and hysteria in the masses.
There's another economic vulnerability and another reason (as if life and death of Americans weren't enough) Team Trump and should worry about when leaving the country's doors relatively open to the coronavirus, one with a lot of political traction to come this year: the inadequacy, complexity and un-affordability of our healthcare system.
Already, there are those who won't go to a doctor until an illness has become life-threatening, revealing that private health insurance is not a good way to prevent epidemics as it is. Plus, illegal immigrants may hesitate to register themselves at a hospital. Then, there are the gaps in Medicare and Medicaid.
Then see what happens if, as a result of the spread of the virus, there are more patients than hospital beds and waiting rooms, not to mention more than our ER's can handle.
And then look at the red ink on the balance sheets of medical providers, and the personal bankruptcies of patients who literally could not afford to get sick.
Could someone (please) points out to "Team Trump" that this is no game, and there's no victory lap in it for anyone. It's is one hot potato of a calamity in the making, and accounting for it will come home to roost in November at the expense of the party whose leaders failed to prevent it.
If you think you can shoot someone on 5th Avenue, think twice about effectively shooting thousands.
41
45 decriminalizes accidentally killing birds. He has thrown out the landmine protections. And there are mostly climate deniers in the WH. 45 is unfettered from any boundaries and his cabinet and Congress do not care. These two I mentioned do not represent any agenda ad much as someone or some persons who work with him find these items and push a paper in fromt of him and he signs. The leap from landmines to birds is too odd. He does not read or have interest in regulations except to undo them, and he is not that into research, so who are these people?
I think 45 does not like himself and he is insecure about himself. Doing what other people say has gotten him far. Any body feel some concern?
12
@Jenny
Concern? How about incredulity followed by terror since 2016. If you lived in New York City in the 80's, you saw the man for what he was.
21
@Jenny
I lot, lot more than "some concern."
Correct that in the world of supply chains we live in China’s disruptive virus is not a blessing likewise a curtailment of China’s potentially massive consumption, first being notice in tourism, is likewise no blessing for America unless pursued.
Unmentioned of course is when did previous administrations reasonably deal with the lingering effects of China’s rise as, now according to the world bank, the world largest economy?
Time for a new generation of policy makers to bring us in line with the world as it is come 2021.
3
Paul, I was with you - until your last two words: “Be afraid.”
Ok, I’m afraid. But I’m not sure what to fear. Unless it’s the sheer incompetence of the current “administration” (put in quotes because it’s a word that seems to be the exact opposite - for the Trump regime - of what it usually means).
So now I’m afraid. I’m anxious. And could you be more specific about what exactly I should fear? Or is our broken Republic and Constitution on life-support exactly the answer?
17
@TheraP
I guess you need a list.
1) This gang of crooked knuckleheads won't be able to effectively stop an epidemic or, worse, a pandemic. A coronavirus doesn't believe Presidential lies, nor does it listen or pay attention to Fox News. It's a brainless but dangerous chunk of mutating RNA.
2) The promised boom in manufacturing hasn't happened prior to this outbreak, and the supply of intermediate products is likely to drop even more. It may WELL kick off a recession here.
3) I cannot think of one policy that Trump has gotten right.
4) Trump is working HARD at killing the pre-existing condition protection for ordinary folks. If he succeeds, millions will lose their health coverage JUST as the coronavirus is likely to go big here.
5) Not directly connected, Trump is working hard to destroy our Constitution, your rights, and the separation of powers, making himself into a dictator.
Five reasons should be enough for now.
22
@Dadof2
I would add one more to your list:
Be very afraid of the coming upheaval that Mother Nature is sending our way. It’s coming even sooner than predicted and our current leaders are doing everything in their power to ignore it.
11
@Patti W Shouldn't that read " It’s coming even sooner than predicted and our current leaders are doing everything in their power to accelerate it."?
1
These companies have far more than two countries to choose from. Some economic questions might be a 2- or a 3-way race. Others are countless choices for a given company (like Amazon's corporate welfare auction last year). According to Forbes & WSJ - 3 months ago - tariffs had caused companies to relocate to Vietnam more than anyplace else. At last count, Vietnam had fewer virus cases than the U.S. Why Ross imagines this might go differently, I don't know. Or maybe just to remind us how they perceive a global pandemic simply as a chance to get ahead.
12
Wilber Ross can put his money, or our money as it is, to ramping up mass production of supplies that would be needed if we do have an epidemic. I would brainstorm with the known established manufacturers to lead the effort to buy factory space and equipment and get going. If the Chinese can erect a couple of hospitals in Wuhan in just two weeks, we can certainly compete in that regard. Roll up your sleeves and get to it, please.
8
@PATRICK
Why would he do that? The US government isn't even interested in assisting in bringing new antibiotics onto the market, and they have already been developed. Health isn't on their agenda.
13
@PATRICK
The people likely to suffer the most, as a group, from a coronovirus "epidemic" (if it reaches that state) are primarily the poor without health insurance and/or access to medical care. Also known as trumps base. About whom no one in the GOP cares until it's time to for them to pull the lever straight ticket for the government that hurts them the most.
18
"These days we live in a world of global value chains, in which much of what any given nation imports consists not of consumer goods but of “intermediate” goods that it uses as part of its own production process."
Great article. As usual, Wilbur "Cyprus" Ross earns his vacant look by his comments, as if manufacturing were still like it was in the 50s when countries specialized in making things from A to Z.
Clearly the world deals in suppy chains and just in time sourcing and inventory in order to reduce overhead. But Ross whose true experise isn't in global economics but in shorting storks based on Trumpian tweets about how quickly China is going to "come around," is going to be left holding the bag when China grinds to a halt.
Flights to China are stopping, and I"m sure that incudes freight transport flights. That will disrupt other countries economies, dragging the whole global economy down.
Kind of tough to short stocks on that news, right Mr. Ross?
32
@ChristineMcM
The problem is precisely that they're not "global value chains" but disproportionate and unbalanced value chains to/from one country.
If there was actual free market capitalism and fairness in the global trade business, China would not be the global behemoth that it is. It only gained that position because it created artificially cheap prices by manipulating its currency and having lax environmental and labor standards.
6
@Viv: the phrase "global value chains" was written by Dr. Krugman, I just quoted it. China may have a disparate amount of the "initial" or "intermediate" (assembly)" manufacturing processes because of their cheap labor, but it's still true that these processes are critical for countries round the globe to finish and market their products.
18
@ChristineMcM
Why is their labor cheap, versus say, those of India and most of the African continent countries? Because unlike China, none of those countries engaged in the same level of craven manipulation. India has 1.3 billion people. The African continent has 1.2 billion people, and a demographically is much younger than China.
So what makes China so special and worthy of ignoring the public health threat and environmental threats they pose?
Sorry, but it IS good for America to realize that over-reliance on a single dictatorship has economic and health consequences. How many more health outbreaks do there need to be before diversity in supply chains is a strategic priority?
4
I write again for the umpteenth time: Today's Republican businessmen seem to know NOTHING about business. They don't seem to understand that wealth does not come from being the King of the Hill and stuffing all the money in your mattress. Wealth comes from the FLOW of money, from the cash to cash cycle, from Cash > Materials > Inventory > Sales > Cash.
And note: Everyone is involved in that cycle. It is not a cycle of businessmen bouncing up and down on their pile of cash. It is a cycle of investors putting their cash to work, employing workers to mine/produce materials, which are transported by transport companies to workers who produce the inventory, which is transported to sales people who sell the goods to consumers who put more cash into the cycle.
Wilbuurrrrrrr isn't the worst businessman in the world.....unfortunately, he's just a representative businessman.
100
As usual, outstanding analysis from Mr. Krugman, not to mention excellent prose. Does his wife edit his commentary perchance? In any case the animal to human transmission of viruses that have the potential for world-wide death in the millions is one of the many downsides of Chinese culture, in this case the existence of so-called "wet markets", i.e. outdoor markets where animals are slaughtered on demand from buyers. Chinese culture ancient of course and admirable, but the existence of "wet markets" disastrous for the overall Chinese population, not to mention derivatively when viruses therefrom spring, for the Chinese government.
10
@Wendell Murray Live animal markets were great when viral vectors were camel and horseback speed. They just don't go with bullet trains and airplanes and almost supersonic viral vectors so much. Its as if all of humanity is in a few small villages all over again, with a few people going from village to village regularly.
10
@Wendell Murray
Why the gratuitous slam about Dr Krugman's writing?
May I ask how those who do not have health insurance will fare if the coronavirus or something else similar, or worse, is not contained? From what I understand China has more accessible health care than the USA. It means possibly that many more Americans could die and how is that good for any economy?
87
@KA You have a very good point. What will happen when hospitals will have to treat those with no insurance?
26
@KA You can bet on one thing for sure, nobody in China will lose their home because they can't pay medical bills because the bills are looked after by the state.
33
Actually that is not true. People in china pay for their own medical and education. Remember the recent story about the man who had a tapeworm in his brain. He had to fund raise for the removal. You are mixing China with MODERN COUNTRIES LIKE CANADA. IT may be Communist but it is not socialist. What they have is STATE CAPITALISM.
8
Trump's cabinet continues to demonstrate not only that he and they are incompetent but incredibly dangerous. Their undermining of science and journalism for political purposes puts us at increased risk when real crises like these come up. Their is lack of critical and especially of honest thinking among all of them. they make decisions for personal gain, personal biases rather than for the benefit of the American or World community. Hopefully, the children and grandchildren of his supporters will not suffer the consequences of their actions but I fear, it may be too late.
40
Wilbur Ross has already (and repeatedly) shown himself to be woefully out of touch with most day-to-day occurrences, and not just about jobs returning to America because of the Coronavirus.
But like every other tragedy or natural catastrophe, it's actually "good" for Team Trump because it serves as yet another distraction from the impeachment trial which will probably vote to acquit him.
And in spite of the galloping death toll and no known cure in sight, it's just business as usual for a president who has mastered the ability of self-preservation.
37
Secretary Ross's entire career has been getting rich turning around fallen or bankrupt businesses. He got rich on the financial pain and human suffering of other stakeholders.
Of course he sees a pandemic as an opportunity for our nation to get rich.
162
@Mhm-Ross was also in charge of deciding which U.S. businesses got tariff waivers and which didn't. Wonder if he took his insider's knowledge and applied it to the stock market?
9
It is breathtaking that Mr. Ross said such a stupid thing. Obviously he does not understand the problems of secondary and tertiary effects from a massive health emergency.
51
Funny time to pick to binge watch "Twelve Monkeys", but it does put me in the mood...
21
Goodness, how about at least acknowledging the dire threat China is to America and how urgently we need to divest from their totalitarian and utterly inhumane government whose reckless secrecy has caused yet another possible pandemic!
4
None of which will do anything to help with the current crisis. Everyone in the U. S. already views China as a threat. Is it really more important to remind people of that yet again than to focus attention on an immanent global pandemic? What are your priorities?
5
@American Abroad: Yes, absolutely, just look at how quickly our democratic and open government responded to the AIDS epidemic, or the poisoning of Flint's water supply, or the opiate crisis. People are dying in China, but an American Abroad thinks it's just one more perfect opportunity for China-bashing.
18
@ShenBowen
As Bernie likes to say, never mind I don't like him, we can chew bubblegum and walk at the same time.
Even if our walk is more often a limp at least we can walk and talk freely have a free press to help!
1
NY Times Aug. 29, 2018
"With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific"
NY Times 2019/12/17/
"China Commissions 2nd Aircraft Carrier, Challenging U.S. Dominance"
DW 1/7/2020
"China is now world's 2nd-biggest weapons producer — SIPRI report"
Krugman still does not get it
What is bad for China is good for the US
2
@LArs Did you read the article? What is bad for China is bad for everybody both in terms of health and in terms of production. All those parts that US companies depend on won't be arriving when they are needed. As for the health aspect, I sincerely hope you have good health insurance as you may need it if the Wuhan strain turns out to be as bad as SARS. The world is shrinking LArs, everything is connected in one way or another.
35
@LArs
"What is bad for China is good for the US"
Mr Krugman has just explained why this isn't necessarily so. Perhaps you should read the article again.
8
This is a contagious disease. Contagious diseases have a funny way of spreading beyond borders. It’s not going to be good for anyone.
10
Not to mention that only a ghoul wishes for a deadly epidemic in a foreign country to help us...um, I mean him...make money. Not understanding that the economics don't work that way does not reduce the degree to which he is a ghoul.
120
Arriving as a young immigrant from Germany in 1956, I studied economics under a wonderful teacher, Prof. Roger C. Van Tassel, at Clark U. in Worcester, MA. His courses left a deep and permanent imprint on my thinking and even my personality. Your columns remind me of those courses. Keep up the good work and don't get discouraged by the incomprehension of " those who will not see. "
161
It's the same virus as the common cold but with attitude.
Mr Krugman is probably right that it will be more disruptive. One woman testing positive on an Italian cruise ship just emptied a vessel of 7,000.
And she could still have only the common cold strain and not the new strain.
10
@gluebottle Attitude indeed. Between 2-3% dying. Thats about 30x worse than average flu and only immunocompromised die from common cold.
5
@gluebottle "The common cold" typically doesn't kill people. This does. See the difference?
'talking nonsense' seems to be a specialty with this administration. I this the new term for lies? If so,I prefer the truth.
How any educated person could ponder the possibility that this virus will benefit the nation is beyond me. A lot of people are going die. Your time would be better served looking for a cure.
31
"The gang who couldn't think straight"--thanks for the smile in a grim time, Paul Krugman. I'm a former long-time New Yorker and enjoyed this updating/Trumpshifting of Jimmy Breslin's novel of farce, loosely based on a local clueless and hapless criminal gang.
Unfortunately, the link with our own day is all too apt.
27
Thank you, Mr. Krugman. I feel that Wilbur Ross needed to have retired two decades ago. The fact he thinks the current epidemic is good for the American economy just shows how little he deserves to wear the mantle of commerce secretary. I hope his remarks don't come back to bite HIM personally.
32
@Maridee And I, who feel quite vindictive toward Trump and his henchmen, DO hope that Ross's remarks come back to bite him personally...just not the rest of us.
Whose idea was it to construct a hyper-globalized economic system that is so incredibly and dangerously fragile that something that happens at a wet market on the other side of the world can potentially bring the global economy to its knees?
10
@TB
I confess, it was I. Sorry. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
Or maybe it was caused by billions of people interacting with each over the last few centuries. And was nobody's idea.
15
wait wait wait......
What about the extortionist pricing and obscene profits that a vaccine can garner?
10
Trump knows pandemics better than anybody. Only the best pandemics.
35
@Kristen
And only he can save us from them, right?
Good luck Farmer Brown if you need a tractor part. If production slows down in China then getting a doodad to fix something will cost more. The doodad may have to be back ordered.Corporate American isn’t going to retool to sell you stuff in the hardware or mercantile. As a farmer you are already paying for the Trumponmic weirdness coming from the White House. And no you cannot catch this disease from a Chinese car part.
25
Right on cue Trump wants to cut the CDC budget
this is quite insane
79
Yes.
This is not just a reasonable conjecture. Scientific evidence from a past epidemic has shown that even localized outbreaks that do not reach US borders cause losses in US commerce and US jobs.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hec.3938
21
Mother nature is over due on applying a "correction" (to borrow a market term) to the population explosion (over 7.7 billion, increasing 80 million annually, tripled in my life time).
"They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine, plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth." (Revelation 6:7–8 NASB).
I'm not too concerned about the wild beasts as we are at the leading edge of the sixth mass extinction. But the sword, famine, plague appear to be correct.
This 'sentient' species is far too stupid to save itself.
30
@oldBassGuy You are misinterpreting Revelations.
Revelations refers to the "wild beasts of the Earth" that make up the 0.1% and the current US Administration.
Read Thomas Piketty Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century" and subsequent analyses.
3
@Rob
"... wild beasts […] the 0.1% …"
Thanks, I take your point.
Thomas Piketty Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century book is already on my reading list. There is just only so many hours in a day, and so many things to read (ie. IPCC reports)
Share your pain but recent events turned my customary sunny outlook to gray. President above the law; attorney general roaming the globe panhandling for grains of support for conspiracy theories born by Trump; Pompeo, Mulvaney and long with the three amigos and Rudy complicit in a scheme to coerce Ukrainian officials into announcing an investigation into the Bidens and debunked 2016 election hoax.
The capstone the GOP Senators masquerading as vexed by a moral dilemma about additional documents or witnesses. Let this sink in their response to Bolton and Mulvaney; the best they can do for exculpatory evidence calling Hunter Biden or Joe. Why not Pompeo someone with knowledge of relevant facts at issue or Rudy the wizard or savant?
If an additional document or witness existed exonerating the president their collective unease melts away like ice in the hot sun. Acquitting Trump without hearing testimony or considering the damning documents he fights to keep secret a pledge of allegiance; loyalty vote that does not exonerate Trump. Suppressing evidence turns us into a banana republic politically not economically yet.
40
Even among the exceptionally Lucky, the luck will run out. Ask any Gambler, or Bookie. Unfortunately, the Teflon Don will take the restaurant of us down WITH him.
And Wilbur Ross, the Gollum like “ Secretary of Commerce “. Said Commerce between His Money, and Trumps Campaign Accounts. Why ? The Prestige ? The Travel ? The Honor ? The Excitement ? The Women ?
Dude, you’ve been Scammed.
18
Why don't you reveal the quote in context? You are deliberately leading you readers to a conclusion that they may not arrive at if you had. If they want to agree with you with after they have seen all of his response in its entirity- I don't have a problem with that. Just be thorough...
1
Manufacturing in the west is largely kaput and unlikely to return whatever governments attempt.
In theory a vaccine for the virus is about 3 months away and fairly simple procedures can limit its spread. 9000 cases, most in China, in a world of 7.5B is hardly something to panic about, certainly at the moment.
3
@Paul Disease spreads exponentially. It starts with one case (5 weeks ago?) And now there are 9000. It's like the penny on the chessboard. If you put one penny on the first square and double the amount on each square. By the 13th square you have 8191 pennies and you have 59 squa rex to go.
6
@Paul
"Fairly simple procedures"? A vaccine, "in theory"? Didn't take much public health micro, did you?
5
@Paul With an Ro of 2.5 and fairly long incubation time and relatively low mortality rate, the number of infections by next Saturday (Feb 8) will surpass 1 million with approximately 22k deaths and will reach 26 million infections and 500k dead by Valentine's day. No one would think less of you if you started panicking right now.
1
Wilbur Ross doesn't have any understanding of the implications of this. But that's to be expected from people who work willingly with Trump. Chronic insensitivity to any but their own needs. What will Trump say or do if China and Asia in general winds up needing help from us to control the virus? Given this administration's woeful lack of compassion and comprehension of the world as it is now, I fear that their only response will be to ignore the problem until it's too late.
We're all connected whether we like it or not. We don't have be friendly with a nation to assist them in a time of great need. Our common humanity suggests that we will. Of course the way Chris Christie behaved about Ebola gives me second thoughts but I think that it's time we got over our ignorance about how disease is spread and stopped destroying our environment. A great many of the newer diseases that are dangerous to us are zoonotic. They've jumped from an animal like a bat or a mouse to us. We are invading their space.
After this, if there is an after, it's time for us to look at the world we are creating and decide if we want a disease ridden existence or one where the animals carrying those diseases can remain within their ecosystems. But that's another editorial/story.
I would vote for reaching out to China to help them.
1/30/2020 8:15pm first submit
18
@hen3ry
He wasn't hired for his intellectual acumen, vast stores of technical or scientific knowledge, or even his business acumen.
He, Ryan Zinke, Scott Pruitt, and everyone else who isn't an oligarch was hired for their industry contacts and allegiances and their propensity to follow orders to the letter - no matter how unethical.
This isn't about right and wrong or good and bad. This is about corporate America's ability to grab as much loot from all of us as they can get away with and ensure we are never again able to wrest power from them.
This is what they've been angling for since FDR.
This may well be the last election for a very long time in which the people may have a say. Even then, it is going to take a sure-handed, principled to the point of being dogmatic - Democrat to unravel this mess and insist on fixes to House, Senate rules as well as constitutional changes that will prevent another power grab of this magnitude.
That's if voters finally understand that the lab cage is about to be permanently shut behind all of us.
47
@Rima Regas the voters who should understand it don't. And of the voters/people who do understand it, some will vote for Trump because they truly like what he's done.
8
Paul continues to believe that “thought” is a word operative in the GOP and the Trump Administration. I’d suggest he sift through the actions and pronouncements of these folks to find a “thought”.
Absent “thought”, what do you suppose causes these folks to do things? There are a few choices, and all of them are unsettling.
12
It seems that Trump and the gang have a philosophy (I'm using the word loosely) that the way for the U.S. to prosper is to hurt everyone else. And laugh and shout while they're doing it. But I'm struck by the shear meanness and cruelty implicit in Ross's remarks. Then again, for the Trumpers apparently that's not a bug, it's a feature.
21
Tempted to utter a variant of the plague quote from Romeo and Juliet.
The variant being that only one house is visited by said plague.
Purely for educational purposes, naturally.
4
Dr. Krugman, Love your columns, including this one.
My take?
"And the two things we know about the trade war are that it has been an economic bust and that Trump’s officials still appear clueless about why it has been a bust." They 'appear clueless' because they know they cannot appear smarter than Trump. Those who appear to be smarter than Trump (Flynn, Kelly, Comey, Bolton, Manigault, and so many more) all get shoved out the door, sometimes via Tweet.
And about: "... severe doubts about how well he would handle a crisis that he didn’t create himself."
The 15,000+ lies and misleading statements catalogued by the WA Post are also -- each one of them! -- what we might call unforced errors. So, yeah, real crisis = uncharted territory.
9
Because Trump sees trade as a zero sum game, and life as a zero sum game, and revels in cruelty, of course the epidemic in China gives the admin a warm feeling.
As with the tariffs, the point is that it hurts China. That it doesn’t help Americans is irrelevant. That it might also hurt Americans is inconceivable to them.
11
Why don't we send Mr. Ross to the outbreak source and update all of us? I'm sure that at one point, Mr. Ross was a lucid man. NO more. How one could possibly make this tie to economics as a positive is beyond ludicrous.
9
He probably has money in one of those companies that make the masks.
9
There must be a rigorous screening process for Trump appointees that requires a complete absence of empathy for a candidate to be considered. I wonder whether Ross owns stock in funeral homes and casket makers. He certainly seems upbeat enough.
15
Can't wait until Fox News -- and its wholly owned subsidiary, the White House -- start sneering about "government health" the way they now sneer about "government schools." And if scientists do develop a vaccine for coronavirus, expect relentless GOP disinformation about how the vaccine causes autism, indigestion, acne, etc.
12
@Fred No, they won't. There is way too much money to be made if there are mass innoculations.
2
@Fred
Yes. All while demanding that they and their families are first in line for the shot.
2
I'm no billionaire Cabinet Secretary, but I did stay in a motel once... it seems to me that, while a shutdown of China's manufacturing due to an epidemic might be an aid to 'bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US' in the sense that somebody might flip a switch and start up their factory again (as if manufacturing were like a light bulb, easy to 'turn on' again... sheesh) there might also be a whole lot of existing US jobs affected when raw materials and sub-assemblies 'Made in China' become hard to get. So what the net on jobs might be I don't know enough to guess. But I suppose if I were a Cabinet Secretary and ignorant enough to think manufacturing jobs could be 'turned on' like a light switch, then I might not be aware of the downside risks of shutting down a key part of so many global supply chains. I guess I need to go sleep in a motel again, so I can be as smart as Wilbur.
Sheesh, where do these people come from?!
16
If the virus only targeted political leaders in Congress and the executive branch I think it would be the greatest pandemic ever
15
Prof, maybe you need one of those translating apps, because when a Trump official speaks, what comes out of the official’s mouth in words is not what the person means.
For example, when Wilbur Ross says a circumstance will be economically favorable, it doesn’t mean it will benefit the economy, nor any sector of it. He means it offers an opportunity for some elderly and obscenely wealthy industrialists and financiers to make a killing on investments of a type ordinary working Americans cannot even understand. Think of the secondary market ripples for futures contracts on your oil depletion allowances you get for indirectly owning a string of obsolete Texas oil refineries, for example. Just imagine what a word salad Betsy deVos could make of something that benefits the owners of private, religious-affiliated schools if they can get their hands on more of the money that’s supposed to fund public schools, for example. Or the many ways to sing the advantages of increasing the rate of despoilage of our water resources or the air we breathe, in comparison to something you can really sink your teeth into like the overnight rate banks charge each other on short term loans and how much you can skim off before you brush your teeth tomorrow.
Ask an average American, a Trump supporter hanging onto a mediocre job in a dying rust belt industry for example, to explain how he will benefit from a shift in the way we tax income from subordinated debentures. I double dog dare you.
23
China has come down hard on religion, maybe too hard.
Trump is helping the zealots create an un-American theocracy.
China is moving forward, and we're going backwards.
Coronavirus or not, China will be the world leader looked up to in the future.
13
"In such a world, anything that disrupts imports — whether it’s tariffs or a virus — raises production costs, and as a result if anything hurts manufacturing."
Maybe it's just me, but I'm having trouble parsing this sentence.
No, it's not just me. It's the significant lowering of standards by this newspaper in the past six years.
1
While everything you write is correct Dr. Krugman, I must say I have lost faith in a sizeable chunk of the U.S. population to care about, or even be able to discern truth from fallacy or genius from idiocy.
Otherwise the current "stable genius" in the White House would never have gotten there, nor would we be losing sleep at night wondering if he'll be re-elected.
So for all of the people who are reading your op-ed and nodding their heads in agreement, it is unfortunately preaching to the choir. For the rest, Fox News and Wilbur Ross unfortunately seem to make sense.
25
Leave it to a Trump cabinet member for finding something positive (return of jobs to US), if not self-serving in human misery.
7
I think that we should all be getting over the notion that there is intent and agency behind what comes out of the Whitehouse.
The elderly and startlingly ignorant man who currently occupies the presidency gives vent to some prejudice or other and his coterie of inept sycophants starts a chorus of acclamation.
Thus is policy made!
And we all, including a Nobel Prize winning economist, are compelled to trot along behind and try and find some significance in all this.
10
Wilbur like Trump and the entire administration suffer from truly a lack of knowledge or interest about the world. It is amazing how these old men went to school and didn't learn anything.
Don't get me wrong seniors are the smartest people in this country, we have many seniors running for office however they are well rounded professional individuals who love this country.
The Trump administration will have to work overtime when the virus hits our shores and we have nothing in place to address and save the lives of people. No hate speech is going to matter from Trump.
Reminds me of Ronald Regan thinking that AIDS would just go away and not make it to the shores of America. How many people suffered and died, Trumps great economy is getting ready to come crashing down around us all, if we don't get some administrators who actually think and know what they are doing,
7
This administration has flunked common decency and kindness...an especially galling reality when juxtaposed against their claims of Christian morality. Whether this, caging children, decreasing SNAP benefits, expressions of “good people on both sides” in Charlottesville to name just a few of many, this administration cares not for compassion or kindness but rather lining their own filthy pockets, and all too often at the expense of those least amongst us.
8
the virus has significantly hurt the sale of Corona beer.
4
Every now and again, it’s important to remember that almost everyone who works for this administration is an utter ghoul. For example, here’s Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, upright and awake for a change, talking about the economic upside of the unfortunate possibility of a worldwide pandemic.
"I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.”
“Ah,” says Maria Bartiromo in reply, “that’s a good point.”
No, in fact, it’s not. It’s an astonishingly wrong-headed take that is barely human. I’ve long believed that the basic business philosophy of the American corporate class is fraud. (And Ross has his own problems there, too.) Now, I’m coming to believe that sociopathy is part of the business plan, too.
13
But Dr. Krugman, after the Black Death decimated Europe in the 14th century, wages went up for those peasants who managed to survive, so maybe there is an upside!
9
As shameful and absurd as Wilbur Ross' comments were, you haven't heard anything yet.
The science deniers in this administration aided by their orwellian named "Think Tanks" will soon be trotting out all sorts of doozies.
We'll be given good reason's to blame the poor, blame the sick, blame the Democrats, blame any non-white group who comes to mind. The american right is nothing if not consistent and thus predictable in their rationalizing why we can't have nice things in this country like health care, infrastructure or an urban policy
Don't expect the "God's Will" brigade to be silent either. Cue an Evangelical Leader to say what they always say when an earthquake, hurricane or virus afflicts us in 3, 2, 1 ...
14
The Trump team has sunk to a new low in moral depravity for suggesting that a looming global pandemic, one that has already paralyzed China, would benefit the American economy by bringing more jobs here. Profiting by the spread of massive human suffering erases any claim America might make of moral leadership, and invites the scorn of countless other countries. We have reason to be ashamed of our government.
16
Humanity is standing on the tracks and there's a big train coming.
10
Could the Coronavirus be the straw that breaks the backs of the overstretched markets?
A lot of reputable economist recon we're due for a "correction", especially with the US running up a massive debt. If the Coronavirus causes a sustained downturn in the markets could that instability trigger a run and then the house of cards tumbles?
And if not, what would cause the next recession and what are the likely outcomes:
1. If accepted practices are carried out by a sane and sober President looking out for the good of society.
2. If Trump is still in power… …
Look on the bright side, a economic downturn would be good for reducing CO2. emissions
6
The apparent fact of Trump's acquittal may be a blessing for our economy and our country. If Trump thought there was chance, however small, of losing, what actions would he take to influence the outcome in his favor? He has already, in his 'bull in the china shop'approach ,brought down a passenger plane and caused concussions, or headaches as he likes to call them, in fifty or so soldiers subjected to the completely expected Iranian retaliation for the murder of their general. The frightening question is : What would't he do? And there is no limit to the possibilities.
5
This isn’t theoretical it is already happening. Just today one of my company’s major suppliers said they have shut down production until at least Feb 10th due to the virus. If all is good by then, things will be fine but what if it is not?
I have a suggestion for everyone here. Rather than just complain about Trump, if you are not already doing so, get out of your comfort zone and work to change who is leading our government at both the state and federal level. This means door to door canvassing, making phone calls and talking to friends as if your life depends on it - - because it may. If not for you, for future generations. Don’t ignore state government. State house and senate races are often a good place to start if you have never worked on a campaign before. You might like it and even make a few new friends. We are already canvassing in Kansas despite snow and low temperatures.
If you live in a blue state and have no one to work against, consider helping out good candidates in red states by sending a small donation. For example, the Democrats in Kansas have a great candidate in Barbara Bollier for US Senate. We have no choice, we must take the Senate back to stop the damage on the Supreme Court.
We must use this anger in a productive way to get things done.
77
@Lori
BRAVO! And yes, yes, yes!!!!
I wouldn't be surprised if the ultra-warped Donald Trump or any of his cabinet were to feel that dozens of deaths deaths and the disruption of millions of lives was cause for a "victory lap," but I'm least surprised that it was Ross who said it.
7
Secretary Ross is a capitalist in the old mold (think Vanderbilt, Rockafeller, or Carnegie): anything that might enhance the bottom line is welcome, including (or perhaps most especially) someone else's suffering. The fact that he is badly deluded about the effect in this particular instance is what qualifies him so particularly to be a member or Trump's cabinet.
15
@richard 'Mold' a frame to construct something or a fungus?
1
There’s lethal flu every year and a little less often there’s a really scary variant like Wuhan virus.
So many unknowns. Just the same, if it comes down to taking sides, I bet on the virus. A lot of people will get sick and some will die, but the economic impact will be worse as commerce grinds to a halt in some areas. And recovery will take time.
Airlines. Cruise ships. Things that have a time value and can’t be resold will suffer.
And when insurance rates go up, we will all pay, regardless of whether we were directly impacted or not v
1
Economic effects of pandemic's are severely underestimated by many as long as they aren't personally effected. I lost 2 uncles to the 1918 flu who were integral to the family farm business. The business went into the depression severely weakened and never recovered. All due to the flu. I'm sure something similar will happen to businesses in China.
6
As Dr. Krugman so skillfully points out, Secretary Ross has the economics of this all wrong. It's appalling that he's the Commerce Secretary for the most advanced economy in human history.
But speaking of appalling, there’s an issue here that is much bigger than economics. This virus has already killed hundreds of people, and it will probably kill thousands more before it's contained. Yet we don't even know for sure if we CAN contain it, and the death toll could be much worse. And even if you believe the deaths of Chinese people somehow aren't important, at some point it will also kill some Americans, and maybe many.
Our skilled scientists and health official are working hard to help contain the virus. Yet all one of our top government officials can do is breathlessly speculate on how these deaths can help us make a few bucks by manufacturing a few more widgets.
The impeachment hearings in the Senate are helping us see how evil the Trump administration is, but Secretary Ross is just pouring gasoline on that fire. How could our once-great nation have sunk so low?
(The right answer to the discussion on Fox News was, of course, “Hey, our fellow human beings are dying; it’s hardly the time to discuss how this could in any way now or in the future help us to make money. Our government is doing all we can to help contain the virus, but we have to figure out how we can do even more. Next question.”)
11
The WHO and CDC have some of the best infectious disease doctors in the world and they're telling people not to panic. So the "Be afraid" line doesn't seem to be helpful. Even if a vaccine takes years to create, immediate treatment might be effective too. Trump will mismanage it, to be sure––he caused panic in 2014 about Ebola. But it is really not a political issue unless it becomes one. It is a scientific challenge. The market seems not to have overreacted after initial fear. I don't think fear will help with the scientific challenge.
4
Now we hear that the US economy grew 2.3 percent in 2019, the slowest growth of trump’s presidency. It wouldn’t take much for growth to slow even more in 2020. But, hey, candidate trump promised us growth of 5-6 percent every year if he became president. So now the administration thinks N-CoV just might be the magic bullet? Am I the only one who has a problem with thinking that the suffering and death of people on another continent could be key to a financial windfall for America?
10
@Drusilla Hawke
You mean the massive tax giveaway and artificially low interest rates haven't insured 4, 5% growth until infinity?
I'm shocked, shocked.
But actually, most people with a bit of economics training knew there would be a temporary sugar high.
11
If this Corona virus outbreak should really become a pandemic and China’s economy slows drastically, who is going to provide America with all the prescription drugs manufactured in China ?
Most drug manufacturing has been outsourced for profit .
27
At some point, consumer will have to recognize that a tariff is a tax on the good that they are buying. I do not know why that is such a hard lesson to learn, but many of the Trump voters I talk to just don't get it. I am hoping for a miraculous understanding before the next election.
16
I'm afraid the trumpadope virus has spread further previously predicted. Trump's isolationism will only cause more problems as it's allowed to progress unchecked. I'm sure that
Trump and his staff have no idea how many vendors and separate companies are involved in assembling the everyday devices we all take for granted. Simply claiming he will bring EVERY manuafacturing job "back" to America is unrealistic because so many of the component parts of everyday devices have NEVER been made in USA, and never will be.
Trump has been happy to take credit for "great economy" when EVERY growth chart showed the economy has, so far, continued to grow in a straight line since 2010.
The economy is GOOD in spite of Trump, not because of Trump. I'm can't say I expect that trend to continue though because he and his henchmen are so bent on wrecking it at every turn simply to make a quick buck, on the backs of the American people.
14
And it’s not good for everybody. Just those who already have money.
Is Ross even qualified to make an opinion? He has a very simplistic way of thinking this pandemic, if it becomes serious, will benefit the US. Couldn't be farther from the truth. We will see disastrous affects hurting our economy in the worse way.
28
@Gretchen
Well, if T and his admin get it, we might see some benefits...
1
Here is a question for Krugman.
If we are hit with the virus which is a potential reality if it spreads like the flu but far more deadly. How will we pay for medical costs? Do you believe they medical industry will socialize the costs or deny coverage as an act of god?
Just something I’m concerned about because I may need my medical soon.
26
@Mathias
The Trumpies are already saying the virus is a result of socialism.
6
@Mathias - This is slightly off topic but I was struck by the irony of you words “deny (medical) coverage as an act of god”. What sort of god, at least the god as portrayed in Christianity as all powerful but compassionate, and in Islam as “the merciful”, what sort of god would deny medical coverage to someone who is sick?
8
I admit to knowing little about economics as a field of study. That said, it seems to me that any economic effects of such an epidemic would be fairly time limited, at least compared to time frames needed to switch supply chains, change manufacturing sites etc. It is also evident by the behavior of businesses in the environment created by "tariff man" that the response was to switch to suppliers in other Asian countries, not to begin manufacturing the item here at home.
12
Trump, Ross, and their like-thinking stable geniuses don't seem to understand global supply chain-based manufacturing, as Dr. Krugman points out, a willful blindspot very similar to the idea of banning all foreigners from immigrating or even visiting. In their xenophobic eyes, it seems, America should be isolated from all other countries in manufacturing, trade, research, and every other endeavor. They don't seem to understand that an isolated America would fall behind the rest of the world, which would happily be enjoying progress through collaboration. America would become like the Soviet Union in the 1980s. And given Putin's influence over Trump, maybe that is precisely the program.
150
@Wayne Cunningham I don't think it's irrelevant to note that both Ross and Trump are old guys who don't listen to other people. (I'm no spring chicken, but I do try to keep up.) And their worldviews often seem stuck in the 1970s, and not just on trade. Trump, for example, is sure that we have an epidemic of urban violence perpetrated by you-know-who even when the reality is that crime is at historic lows and the most conspicuous cases of social collapse now involve rural whites.
94
@Paul Krugman
Do the socially collapsed rural whites support Trump? Are THEY the problem?
I see Trump's voters as the long term cancer eating American democracy and prosperity. Who are they?
7
@BSmith I think it's a mistake to look at Trump as a separate problem distinct from the rest of the GOP.
Think of the dominant Republican messaging on any important issue and it's likely to be a blatant lie.
That relentless disinformation is the terminal cancer afflicting our body politic IMO.
14
The policies of the Trump administration have never been about thoughtful consideration of events and concepts at work in the real world.
Every one of their policies can be traced to an agenda of a GOP friendly donor or interest group.
Ross' economic views are informed by his (and many Trump supporting businesspeople) that their wealth and success means that they are qualified to pronounce policy on issues they imagine they are qualified in. "I am wealthy thus I am smart" is scarcely the credential Americans want or need.
This is, of course, not limited to economic and fiscal policy but extends to immigration, climate change, health, tax policy, the environment, free speech and so on.
In short, the policies of this administration are driven by fantasy, superstition, bigotry and greed promoted by tireless media blitzes promoting their untruths.
68
Nothing you can say will ever convince Trump’s base of the truth about the economy. He tweets that his economy is the best since Genghis Khan and they believe him.
54
@Grey
Gheghis was actually an outstanding administrator. But point taken.
9
@Grey Somebody should tell them their hero failed in the gambling casino business, which was thought to be impossible until he did it.
11
@Grey
Genghis Khan invented Airports. Not many People know that. Also, HE was my Fathers descendant. That’s why I know more than my Generals. #Trump Facts.
13
It’s all about the sort term with these people.
Mostly opportunistic short term profits.
I suspect that the Trump sees an economic boon for the rich in a Trump dictatorship.
No regulations.
Predatory economic policies unleashed.
No pesky laws to stand in their way.
232
@Grove , yes, the same sort of thing as after the fall of the Soviet Union. Oligarchs split up the public good, liquidated it, and what equity (and inequities) they have enjoyed. For the nation? Not so good, stripped and left behind. The life span average for men fell to 52, for example— and now though there’s been progress, it is a grim place to live for most.
62
@Grove That's exactly his viewpoint. The marvel as that so many of his followers either can't see it or somehow believe it's worth their own deepening suffering.
4
Professor Krugman ends this piece summarizing how Trump has been lucky, with no major crises during his term other than those of his own making. I used to think that, eventually, laws of political gravity would catch up to him, as they have to most presidents in my lifetime. But I now realize that only applies to Democrats, given the new reality of the FOX News gaslighting era. There have indeed been things that should've weighed on this president, like unexpected consequences of trade wars described here. But when FOX and Limbaugh, et al., unfailingly blame others and laud Trump, no matter what happens, I'm not sure luck and normal political consequences matter anymore. Wilbur Ross's comments are probably a preview of the upcoming 2020 flick, and about 40% of America will be happily applauding the event.
367
@original
Let's hope we don't have a repeat of 2016 and all of the 60% show-up to vote.
21
@original
" I used to think that, eventually, laws of political gravity would catch up to him, as they have to most presidents in my lifetime."
It didn't with George W. Bush. By all rights W should have been thrown out on his ear in 2004. The disastrous war in Iraq alone should have been enough. But, he got a popular vote majority and we got the "Doing a great job Brownie" response to Katrina.
8
@Thucydides The really scary thing is that any extreme disaster you could conjure up will not break the hold Trump has on his supporters. Forget about shooting someone on Fifth Avenue. If a terrorist detonated a nuclear bomb on American soil while Trump was president you can be sure that Trump and Fox would blame Obama, Hillary and the Democrats. And the Trump supporters would buy it. Ponder that.
2
I'm a biologist, so I'll leave the politics aside. Thanks to fossil fuels, homo sapiens has severely over-extended its reach. Nature WILL fight back. While we most often focus on storms, floods and wildfires, the two most dangerous likelihoods IMO are die-offs of ecosystems on which we rely for food (resulting in mass starvation) and super-bugs like flu, corona-virus and many others.
It is quite possible that humanity is due for a serious reduction in population. I'm not wishing it, but you should expect it.
633
@Kenneth Brady Mr. Brady, presumably you are a citizen of the United States. It behooves you, and the rest of us, to leave the politics in, rather than aside. Politics is not just a "what", it is a "how". It is "how" an informed citizenry governs itself. Otherwise, we will fall victim, as we have in the last three years, to the best and brightest demagogue, the one who knows nothing but has an advanced degree in demagogy. Never, ever, leave the politics aside by arguing that
you´re a biologist, or a farmer, or a bus driver, or anything else, because what´s left when politics are set aside is lawlessness.
140
@Kenneth Brady
Yes Kenneth Brady, you are right, I have been thinking this all my life. Overpopulation? Climate change caused by it? Not a problem! Because a virus will sweep through. We see this in almost every overcrowded animal population already.
47
@Kenneth Brady - You note that human beings have over-extended their reach and that humanity is due for a serious reduction in population.
Like you, I don't wish it. But if and when it does come, I will know that we thoroughly deserve it--partly because of our greed, stupidity, and short-sightedness, and partly because of our cruelty: This virus was apparently transmitted from animals to humans as a result of illegal Chinese trade in wildlife. Our factory farming systems--in China and in the US--are not only horrifically cruel, they are also perfectly conditioned for the creation of new and potentially deadly viruses. China has an appalling record with regard to its treatment of animals in general, and we in the US are not much better. When the virus does come that will wipe us out or massively reduce our numbers, it will come as a result of the obscene acts we are committing every second against animals and against Mother Nature in general. And no one will be able to say we didn't have it coming. Meanwhile, enjoy your daily, dirt-cheap meat, folks, won't you.
87
Even if it were true and there were a legitimate discussion of the economic aspects to be had, it would be a jerky thing to say that way--with a sorry not sorry intro and barely disguised satisfaction with the situation.
25
The Republican Senate is very optimistic today that they can avoid witnesses in the impeachment trial, shred the Constitution, destroy the government, and further enable Trump in his dream to destroy the rule of law and replace it with Trump’s law - “I can do anything I want”.
This is unbelievable.
After Reagan started us down this road, I guess it was inevitable that we would get here at some point.
703
@Grove Precisely. This is the denouement of the Reagan Restoration - Trump is just the cruder version of Reagan, with similar racist demagoguery, crony corruption, catering to the plutocracy, and con job. Reagan just had better handlers and PR.
93
Imagine a Roman so entranced by the sound of his own fiddle that he fails to notice the flames.
Now imagine a whole senate of them.
149
Also, the 2009 swine flu started in North America and was way more severe than SARS or this virus, killing hundreds of thousands around the world including tens of thousands in the US. Viruses can start anywhere; China might be riskier because its government is more likely to overreact (there was no mass quarantine of swine flu), but everyone doing business in China already knows that, so it would be foolish to change supply chain decisions based on virus risk.
Credit where credit is due though, the Trump administration is actually handling this okay, letting the CDC do most of the talking and not feeding panic or conspiracy theories (in line with the World Health Organization, which currently recommends no travel restrictions).
@HO
I missed it what exactly is the CDC doing. I get my medical announcements from the dr. on CNN and they have yet to announce a CDC announcement
3
@HO : You're confusing luck with skill. Trump has worked to gut all the scientific and technical expertise from the government, so if it hits more directly in the US expect a panicked response from the White House. Probably a military response.
6
@HO China is riskier because of higher human population density and livestock handling practices that make the U.S.'s dismally threadbare regulations look like they were approved by PETA.
3
No question that the Trump administration is remarkably incapable thinking about any economic health or political issue. On the other hand, this is a tough issue and most politicians around the world are resisting the urge to rely on the counsel of thoughtful public health experts and are making policy decisions that are half baked. We all know Trumps level of understanding of epidemics from his comments on Ebola. If coronavirus turns out to be the challenge it is beginning to look like, we can count on him to do everything wrong.
120
China is now the manufacturing hub and the final assembly place for many goods in the world. If it wasn't, it won't be running such a large international trade even though it does not make the most of money (profit went to Nike, Apple, Walmart, etc).
so anytime when China is stopped working, we all are going to face shortage and higher prices. I don't know anyone in America who would love to pay more and have shortage for their daily goods especially from Walmart and Costco...
Donald, the Horrible, and his "great cabinet members" like the famous not-to-smart Wilbur Ross, are billionaires, and they don't ever shop at Walmart, not like you and me...
91
@paul In the grand scheme of things, it would be better for the environment -- and probably people's overall health and wellness -- if things at Walmart (especially) cost more and were not imported from China.
8
@paul I don't think either Trump or Ross is a net billionaire. That's just one of their con jobs.
11
@Io Lightning
I doubt the consumers out there shopping at Walmart would agree with you and they don't care if the goods were from China, they just can not afford them at higher prices
6
Despite a late start, China has been working to quarantine affected areas within its borders, to restrict travel (at the busiest time of year), and to provide medical assistance to those who have fallen ill as well as salient epidemiological and virus-sequencing data to the world health community.
At this point, I have more faith in the Chinese government than I do in my own here in the United States.
It's tough to get where you need to go, much less in a calm and rational manner, when a fool is behind the wheel of your car driving you over a cliff.
I want my car keys back.
We Americans need our country back, before it's too late.
498
@Blue Moon
Any idea when the "too late" deadline may come? Or have we passed it? I think maybe we have.
24
@Blue Moon
So you say you have more faith in Xi Jinping driving over the Grand Canyon like Thelma and Louise, than Trump driving on a flat North Dakota freeway. Me too.
33
It’s too late.
3
That the Goodfeathers administration views every economic phenomenon as a zero-sum game and every national border as a twenty foot high wall in varying stages of construction is to be expected.
That they still say these things out loud during an impeachment hearing and election year, even while this disease outbreak is sickening and killing Americans, shows that the recent dismissing of soldiers' brain injuries as "headaches" was not the peak of official sadism.
192
It is a mistake to continuously peg them all as failures.
Trump and his team have had the wildest success at fleecing the American public at the expense of its health, environment, wealth, even its misery.
No stone has been left unturned in the oligarchy and the Republican parties quest to cash out every last bit this nation is worth. No lie is too big to tail. No danger is to grave to put us all asunder.
These people will stop at nothing.
1053
@Rima Regas
Exactly correct. The Trump regime has been very successful as you describe, which is why they are fighting tooth and claw to defend him in the Senate. Their patrons have spent a lot of money to get on this gravy train, and by God it won't be derailed that easily.
230
@Rima Regas
And, in Trump's second term and with Rs dominant in both the House and Senate, get ready for handing the federal lands to the states. Even Romney was in favor of that (recall something like " I don't understand why the government has all this land.")
In Montana, those federal lands will begin with those administered by the Bureau of Land Management. Forest Service comes next.
45
@LynnBob
They started looking into and leasing lands from day one. Politico used to do a weekly piece called Things Trump Did While You Weren't Looking. I curated those posts and others during the first two years. It's too bad they discontinued it.
If people knew the extent of the ravage, they'd be a whole lot angrier than they are now.
102
Can we add the 50 soldiers suffering traumatic brain injuries that the occupant of the White House misdiagnosed as a headache.
Just fiddling as we burn
781
@Sick Of Lies
I wish the military that worked in the white house who have kept their mouths shut, open it wide like in a horror movie and start screaming because I am screaming for their pain.
This pain has to end we will bring our country of character back, however we will not forget who were traitors to the people. So don't brother to write any books no one wants to read them.
John Bolton better find a TV show and start talking otherwise he wont be in the company of his own war mongers. this is his time to be an American not a coward hiding behind his book
39
@Sick Of Lies There is an economic aspect to the remark but I feel that it wouldn't have been made and the death of many people wouldn't have been characterized as an economic opportunity if the people weren't Asian. It' us against them. The racism in this administration can't be ignored, they are ripping this country apart.
7
So far, Trump hasn't hurt the Stock Market, although the virus may do so. Think he'll still try to take credit for the Market on the down side? Don't think so!
16
The president* will blame Obama, of course.
11
@George Tafelski
Yes, and not without "honorary mention" for Hillary, although the odds of his blaming Dems currently running for office are rapidly increasing.
8
I don't know the full context of Wilbur Ross's comment, but it seems to be not only remarkably misguided but also stunningly insensitive. You called it boneheaded. I call it despicable, and I think he owes the people of China an apology. But I'm not expecting to hear that, because nobody in the Trump administration ever apologizes for anything. They all take their cues from their ethically and emotionally challenged boss.
841
@Dan Ross's associations with the big money this Super Bowl weekend should be telling. Should be reported. In fact, an expose piece about that extravaganza and a Venn diagram of contacts would be revealing of America's corruption.
36
Sec. Ross' comments, on how China's epidemiological misfortune is to America's economic advantage, is just as remarkably tone-deaf as Trump's first public response to 9-11, where he stated Trump Tower is now the "tallest building in Lower Manhattan" thanks to the nearby collapse of the WTC just hours earlier, killing over 3,000 people in the process. These people might belong to each other, but not in charge of American government.
1209
@Citixen
When these bumbling grifters are caught off-guard their true opinions occasionally slip out before someone can get them back in line.
88
@Citixen
Every time Trump opens his mouth he either lies or says something totally hateful. It's tragic that we ended with him as president and it may truly be the last time because he's already named himself as king.
95
@Citixen
If he actually said that, he was more than tone-deaf. Trump Tower is not in lower Manhattan, or if it is, (if lower Manhattan goes up to Central Park, say) so is the Empire State Building. The man was seriously detached from reality, and remains so.
47