All that's needed is a five minute visit to the site Daily Job Cuts. com to see that the numbers being published are false. Look at the layoffs, listed day by day, for the month of October and there's no comparison at all to the numbers the American people are being given. I knew the numbers were false, but after my eye opening visit to the site, well, I'm not buying what the government is selling!!
4
The other side of the coin which Trump's base doesn't seem to notice is the massive deficit caused by his huge tax breaks for the wealthiest and the degradation of our already compromised environment by his relentless slashing of "unnecessary" regulations.
3
The federal government's cost sharing in the repair and or replacement of failing infrastructures in the nation's major and rural cities is not even included in the current national debt, not to mention the unabated ballooning national debt itself and the fact that America's CPI at 256 is more twice that of Australia's, Britain's, Japan and other economically advanced world economies, meaning that Americans pay twice for the same goods and services, including healthcare, education, etc., and the slowing economy is trying to be offset by the Federal Reserve's lowering the interest rate while the GOP reduces banking regulation. All of this forecasts a very messy financial turn of events for America.
4
According to other reports this jobs report has been CORRECTED to be 95,000. I always thought the Trump administration was lying, giving the wrong numbers up front you all jump on, only to quietly correct that figure later . And like a dog you latch on to the first report and hold on to it as it is your bone.
Guess you think having to work 2-3 jobs with no benefits is good and with all other economic trends cooling off, wait until everything collapses. Wall St is going great because what would you do with $20-60 million tax cut besides paying your CEO and stockholders, and buy stock. Certainly companies aren't rising wages are you?
6
When I look at the current Job numbers that will inevitably get revised downwards when most Americans are not paying attention, I can’t help but intuitively think Trump is manipulating the Department of Labor. I mean based on what he has done with all the other Departments such as holding back military aid for political benefit, why would he stop there? He has no morals to stand in the way of manipulating numbers to make himself look good. Remember the Hurricane chart he thought no one would catch?
5
Many good workers still cannot get regular, consistent jobs. All these "economic gains" and numbers go to the people already reaping too much money from the working people. I have sympathy for the Yellow Vest movement in France, which is insisting people are taken care of, and is against the wealthy having all of the resources and hence making all the decisions in government. It is direct, peoples' action to stop social services from being cut.
5
I’m so underemployed and my husband was for a long stretch as well. We are highly skilled yet barely met bills much less be upwardly mobile like that. The gig economy sucks, no benefits, and that’s what it is.
5
Well, I'm still *underemployed* and have been for 2 years because a job is better than no job. Since April this year, over 200 resumes sent (those are the ones that I get actual confirmation from the company that it was received) so I'm sure it's more than 200, and not counting the countless recruiters who solicit me, then ghost me - or the 10 interviews where I've been ghosted and I've had and not so much as a follow up despite me sending a "thanks for meeting with me, I'm looking forward to the next steps in the interview process..." emails and notes. That.
7
Every time I see a jobs report, I can't help remembering how the numbers keep being revised down later.
As in 500,000 over reporting of job gains over a year and a half equaling about 30,000 a month of fictitious job gains month after month after month in 2018 and the first half of 2019.
It's just like the unemployment number. How many baby boomers between the age of 55 and 65 are either not working or driving a cab/uber/lyft/grubhub...
1
I’ve never cashed a paycheck signed by POTUS. Politicians don’t create jobs, American businesses do.
3
And where do you thing businesses get their small business loans from? It's through the bank but the money is not from the bank. Most research is done via government grants or in government, which businesses then take and make a buck from, Siri and Alexa being examples. Do some research about what your government actually does for you, for businesses, for your community, and for everyone.
2
These government numbers are just that.
1
The world of the new economics. Here in Canada the Bank of Canada kept the interest rate the same and did not cut like the Fed. I agreed how much lower can the rate go. Face it I am 73 and invested in lower interest items. My late wife and I were never massive risk takers since we had very little money and did not want to take the chance. Now, of course the market is setting records your money is being forced through investments into the market whether you want to or not. I know some economics and I look and the majority of stocks are overvalued and very badly. Cut the interest rate, but how much spending before the bottom hits. Americans and Canadians are in debt over their eyeballs and does anyone think the good times will last forever before all the bills come due. Notice the credit card company did they cut the interest rates. In the old days people were arrested for loan sharking now they run credit card companies. The US deficit has reached a all time record and the debt is skyrocketed. Funny in the old economics these would have set off warning bells now it seems to be hey, keep cutting the interest rate and we will keep spending. Reality someday all those bills will come do and I hope I have passed on by then, since the Depression of 1929 will look like it was a good time. But, when you have a snake oil conman in charge what does one expect. Jim Trautman
5
If this country is really so hard up for workers, how about letting down some of the barriers we have erected against immigrants joining the throng?
More jobs and greater debt
That doesn’t jive .
1
If the labor market is so tight that employers are desperate for employees, how come nobody is talking about lowering the barriers we have erected against immigrants and letting more of them into that market?
President Obama left President Trump an increasingly rosy employment picture! President Trump constantly demeans President Obama! I’ve yet to hear a questioner ask President Trump why he doesn’t give Obama the credit he is due! Why is that?
7
@Counter MeasurE
Trump labors under one of his typical delusions that the country was in a deep deep recession before he took office. Worse FOX NOISE helps perpetuate that lie and all of Trump's nonsense, Even this month he lies about the numbers. Adding in the 95,000 adjustment on previous months. Something he never did in past months when job numbers were revised down.
Remember the Trump economy bears little resemblance to the real economy.
2
For everybody knocking Trumps great economic record, where are the Democrat’s great paying jobs? Haven’t heard a peep from the candidates.
4
@M
Pelosi's big idea for job growth is infrastructure spending. Democrats are lost on the economy.
2
@M
Trump is so silent on this issue one can hear a pin drop in Boston from as far away as Los Angeles
@AACNY Where was Trump genius a trillion in deficit spending.
As for infrastructure spending the GOP had the House, Senate and White House exactly were was their genius infrastructure plan. All they did was greate a tax cut that is creating runaway deficits. So much for tax cut increase the economy. Where is Trump's Infrastructure plan or even leadership? Please get a grip on reality.
2
In a companion piece, the Times reports that the Labor Bureau released two different measures of wage growth, and both showed wages lagging. The reason the Labor Bureau issued two measures is that computing wage growth is incredibly subjective, And there are about six million different measures out there.
Whatever wage growth data is released, it is always widely interpreted by experts, all of whom have their biases. And the more biased of the experts give you unfounded bottom lines that they try to sell as definitive. The companion piece reported that there are no large wage gains to be found.
On the same subject, CNBC reports that “Wage growth remaining at 3.0% should further support incomes and consumption-led growth.” The Washington Post reports “For now, we can take solace that there are sufficient job and wage gains to support the economy and keep it miles away from any recession” Most analysts report that modest wage increases allow for future stimulation by the Fed so that future wage reports are more likely to be positive.
I’m sure I’m telling you what you already know: no matter what the data, it all comes down to spin.
3
@michjas
Average wage growth is $5K. It was $1100 in the 8 years of Obama's economy.
Hard to spin that.
4
@AACNY Thought you were smarter than that. Obama years were slower because they were affected by something big. Wait, I got it. There was the worst recession ever.
4
how many jobs are ones that are being done by someone already working at a another job? Metrics are not telling a story, what are these jobs, part-time, low paying, full time, service industries, manufacturing etc.
4
Working Americans continue to struggle in Trump’s economy.
Today’s jobs report once again contradicts Trump’s claim that he’s the “greatest jobs president that God ever created.” Job growth under Trump is down 15% from under President Obama.
From his attacks on the Affordable Care Act, to a $2 trillion tax act full of tax breaks given to the wealthy and corporations, to his reckless trade-wars-by-tweet, Trump's policies have one thing in common: They make it harder for working Americans to make ends meet.
The manufacturing sector is in serious trouble, and farm bankruptcies are up 24% from 2018. Farm bankruptcies in the Midwest alone have increased 45% since Trump took office.
When is Trump actually going to bring the jobs back to America that he promised during his 2016 presidential campaign?
5
We've morphed from "Thanks Obama" to "Trump will crash this in a year" to multi-paragraph rationalizations to handle the cognitive dissonance.
Trump isn't smart but business knows he isn't going to sink the ship that will get him relected
2
The employment figures are great, on the surface. The 3.6% unemployment figure is deceiving because of the way it is calculated.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: "People are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, . . .” (https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm)
That means if you work 20 hrs. a week, you are employed. If you did a freelance job that paid $500, you are employed.
3
What we need is a metric that represents number of sustainable full-time jobs. In other words, figure out the sustainable (eg. minimum reasonable living standards) for single folk and married folk, then take into account not only the hours worked but also the pay scale. This then would provide a measure of how many "good" jobs the economy provided. I think then we'd see that "job creation" has been minimal at best. And we'd better identify how many jobs have been lost and how many equivalent jobs have been created. As the saying goes: "you can only measure what you define". Right now we mix apples and grapes .... and occasionally even through in a pomegranate.
4
Let's see, comparing change in total private employment over Trumps first 33 complete months in office .. vs .. Obama's last 33 months - the economy added over a million fewer jobs over the Trump tenure to date.
Trump characterized the economy under Obama as a disaster. What does that make him?
5
@JH We all know the answer Trump is a Pathological liar.
1
I graduated top of my class with a degree in electrical engineering and can’t even get a call back for meaningful employment, going on 2 years now. The gig jobs available offer peanuts for labor and don’t include affordable insurance, let alone insurers one might actually trust to make good on coverage should I ever require medical attention. Instead of fighting the firehose of falsehoods over bogus economic data (among other things), instead of listening to tribal political arguments made by millionaires on both sides that would have me believe that the American middle class didn’t go extinct years ago, it would seem that my only real solution is expatriation seeing as how I have nothing to lose. I have no student loan debt, but am also unable to save for retirement and am hemorrhaging potential earnings by the day. For all the talk of a coming tech revolution, all I see are shareholder shenanigans and asset stripping at the expense of future taxpayers. Some soft landing.
5
The jobs report is good. Wages going up more than inflation is good.
All that says is that there is a shortage of workers and most people are willing to get up in the morning and work hard for relatively low wages and poor benefits.
The problem with this report, as evidenced by the President taking credit for it and the comments on this article, is they tend to be politicized.
I don't see where the government gets much credit for gutting government oversight that may increase profits at the expense of all kinds of liability like plane crashes, unsanitary water, fires and rising water that threaten millions of home owners having much to do with this report.
I also don't see where taking on a trillion dollar debt on an annualized basis for tax cuts to the wealthy and giving away public institutions as a net good that shows up in the report.
The report basically says Americans are willing to work and they are getting work. Thanks wage earners. Nicely done.
5
@HL
128,000 jobs created is not good
Given the Trump Administration's systemic dishonesty, I cannot trust these reports, or any other reports from this Adminstration.
I cannot believe the data have not been thoroughly twisted, torchered, and tormented in order to make Mr. Trump look good.
MB
2
Read this comment and you don’t have to read any others.
If you are a Trump fan, this is great news, and only solidifies how great the economy has been under Trump.
If you oppose Trump, this news is meaningless, even misleading, because it fails to show that the middle class is suffering.
Pick a side, and you automatically know how to feel about the economic news. See how easy I just made it for everyone.
You don’t have to bother reading about it in depth and coming to your own informed conclusion.
1
People on strike are still counted as employed. Their official classification is "At work, on temporary absence."
2
NY time & Ben, you did well hiding the fact and not attributing the economic success to President Trump.
2
With all these job numbers that this dictatorship publishes monthly that show such a rosy picture and Drumpf uses as a trumpet to say the economy is great, why is he and the wing-nut gop pushing hard to put another tax cut package together?
Numbers from this dictatorship have to be taken with some skepticism based on the tons of lies this dictatorship is built on
Best guess it will be a copy of the first, the top of the heap get the biggest breaks and the rest a kick in the mouth.
And the reason why the rush is first-- the 2020 election for Drumpf to buy votes and two-- slow down an impending recession/depression caused by the first give-away
Desperate to find a dark lining.
1
How is this good news? Even if you add 50,000 in you are not adding enough jobs to take care of growth and retirement. This is being spun as good under Trump but under Obama this number was considered bad. This is not good news and Wall Street should know it. Also a rate cut at this low a rate already will do nothing to spur growth. We are falling into a Japanese economic trap, where the Fed won’t have anything in its arsenal to help future busts. Let’s stop spinning the news that consumer debt climbing and climbing is good news. Many, including the USA, have nothing in reserve for a rainy day. This is no way to run our economy.
5
@David Gifford
The number is 128,000 plus the striking GM employees.
2
There are many who have continued to be left behind by this recovery--
working even one hour during the week when the Labor Dept does its employment survey--keeps you out of the jobless category. Many more show up in a broader measure which includes people working part-time looking for full-time work or those who have just given up--they make up 6.9% or 11 million people.(Life on the Edge--NYT 10/31/19)
4
Can someone direct me to more detailed information on these jobs? How many of are full-time with benefits? How many are part-time - and how many hours? What is the mean hourly pay?
3
@Sam,
Here's another perspective:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/jobs-report-october-2019.html
Enjoy!
I have two part time jobs. I work with a teacher who has two additional part time jobs. Most of the people I work with have 2 and 3 jobs. They don't pay well. We have them to make ends meet. I'm not impressed by employment numbers.
7
@Phil
and I do not know anyone with more than one job.
2
What will later revisions be?
The truth is that none of these statistics accurately reflect what's happening. REAL unemployment has remained above 20% since 2009 using the metrics in use in 1980. Labor force participation remains low and is not increasing. We have a HUGE number of people not counted in these statistics. Wages continue to fall behind inflation - which is in double digits in major urban areas.
Here in suburbia I know people out of work for 5 years, for 2 years.... houses sit empty in foreclosure (though not listed for sale). People in their 40's and 50's are losing their jobs just as they are entering peak earning years. They are losing jobs after or while paying for their children's college. Their plans to intensify saving for retirement are shot. One friend has run through their 401K after 4 years looking for work, trying to pay for college and keep up on a mortgage. What seems like a lot in savings doesn't last when unemployed. People that do get work end up earning half or less of what they used to make. Many have given up and moved away to cheaper locales.
Whole industries have effectively died. Publishing used to employ a ton of people living here. No more. Banks are going through a new round of 'early retirements' and layoffs. Retail is dying as large stores go bankrupt and small shops sit empty in even the affluent villages. New grads are still facing a tight market - some work as unpaid interns to get in the door.
7
Very weak jobs report. Very weak GDP number. It only took Republicans three years this time to ruin the good economy Democrats created.
7
Good luck beating Trump with this economy.
Best job market of the last 20 years!
7
@JAG
Yeah! If working part time at Burger King, Walmart or Wendy's are your career goals. Absolutely!
2
@JAG You're joking, right? 128K isn't keeping up with population growth. Looks like the sugar high of 2018 has worn off. The job creation trend does not look good....just in time for the 2020 elections.
2
@JAG
Worse than Obama's second term
1
Unfortunately when you import and employ people from nations, like China and India, in USA government departments you'll get a lowering of professional standards as corruption in government departments and bribery is part and parcel of their culture. You get a breakdown in society when you get corruption in government.
The Stats probably are not worth the paper they are written on.
3
A record 158,510,000 Americans are working. Never have so many people been working in America than before now. Also 63.3 of Americans are participating in the labor force, a statistic which includes people actually working and people looking for work. These numbers have never been this high, they certainly weren’t this good under Obama. More importantly, the unemployment rate for African Americans is 5.4%, another record! And the opposition has the nerve to call Trump and his policies “racist.” He’s anything but a racist. I support the President. I support Trump! America first! MAGA! KAG! Thank you.
11
@Southern Boy
A record number of Americans aren't working either
Playing semantic games in a country with a growing population makes you look ridiculous
2
What Trump supporters are really happy about is not the economy, it’s that Donald Trump has helped white nationalists and anti-Semites emerge from the fringes and into the mainstream, as we’ve seen over the past few years as right wing violence has surged since his election. They know Donald Trump is their champion.
2
@Marion Grace Merriweather
"A record number of Americans aren't working either "
Where do you get this? "A record number of Americans aren't working either "
In my state, MA, they are saying the unemployment rate is so low, and it is so hard to find new employees that is is slowing the economy.
2
21st century Neo-feudalism
So far, then Trump's polices have not screwed up the 109-month Obama recovery. However, the Fed recently lowering interest rates is not a sign of a strong recovery, and these figures don't cover the quality of the jobs, underemployment, or people who stopped looking for work. And before people accuse me of hypocrisy, I made these very same claims five years ago when Obama was president. This has never been a strong recovery.
5
This "rosy" economy makes me think of the wonderful cost-of-living increases that the elderly get on their SS. They tell us old-folks that we're going to get more money...but the increase is based on things that older people typically don't use like gasoline prices. The things we do use...rent, doctors, heating, medicine, food...none of that is counted toward our cost-of-living increase. But all of those things cost us more, almost always more than our paltry raises. It's slight of hand and, frankly, embarrassingly stingy.
3
The statistics lag. The economy that rebounded from the great recession did so slowly under the policies of the Obama administration, who, among other things, literally recapitalized the financial sector with tax-payer money. That is a situation in which profit is privatized, and risk socialized. Your welcome. But the situation for Obama's first term remained very ugly. Now with 3 plus years of Trump policies there are a couple big questions when it comes to the economy. One is do we actually get the truth about economics from anything that touches a Trump political appointment. Another is are we just in the lag time before a crash resulting from all of Trump's toxic policies and trade wars? I think the answer to the first is no. And the answer to the second is yes.
2
Obama's job creation continues to outperform Trump's.
About 7.4 million jobs were created in Obama's last 33 months, versus 5.8 million in Trump's first 33. Obama's lead continues widening, as 2014 job creation was exceptional.
This represents a 224,000/month job creation under Obama, vs. 174,000/month under Trump, considering the large negative adjustments for the April '18 to March '19 period from BLS, which reports the employment figures.
The six-month rolling average of job creation is about 156,000 per month, versus the 2012-2018 average of 207,000.
CBO forecast that job creation this year would be around 175,000 per month, and in 2020 would be about 100,000 per month, as we approach full employment, so the unemployment rate is becoming an even more critical indicator than usual.
Real wage growth averaged 1.7% in Obama's last two years vs. 0.5% in Trump's first two years. So far in 2019, real wage growth is averaging 1.4%, a more respectable figure.
Is this performance worth the 60% increase in the budget deficits for 2018 and 2019, versus the continuation of Obama tax and spend policies?
2
Trouble is that you can't believe government statistics anymore. I'm in San Diego. We're usually last to see job slow downs but I can see it here already. Observation doesn't square with this data.
4
@Cindy Hmmm.... one person's observation vs analyzing nationwide data.
2
Besides the people who legitimately can't find work; and the people who have given up looking for work; and the people who are working at jobs far below their job skills; and the people who claim to be disabled who are actually able to work but don’t; and the people in jails and prisons; and the people who are making their living as criminals who should probably be counted as unemployed; and the people who are too sick or crazy to work, there are also massive numbers of people in this country who "work" at useless jobs that are really not jobs.
Government jobs are frequently characterized this way, but the problem reaches far into the private sector as well. Occasionally one hears of people having jobs who "work" from home without really working. But most useless jobs are in a different category altogether and consist of things like making coffee, drinking coffee, going to useless meetings, going to lunch, writing reports and emails that nobody reads or -- in the case of many women -- simply showing up for work and looking decorative.
As far as I know, few if any, economists or sociologists are studying this matter seriously. If they did, I believe the nation would quickly learn that the true unemployment rate in this country is much higher than 3.6% and may actually be 20% or greater.
I don't know what the country would actually do with this information if it had it, but generally speaking I believe it is better to know that your house is on fire than not to know.
11
@A. Stanton And what about all the kids that aren't working, just wasting their time in kindergarten?
I understand the comments about people who have given up looking for work, and people working at lower level/paying jobs than what they were, etc. But why are you denigrating the efforts of people who go to work at what you consider to be useless jobs?
5
Employment is a reliable metric of employment. The cost of living continues to increase while wages do not. American pie is very expensive.
3
In 2008, the market was at record highs as more and more pundits warned of recession. And the pundits were right. Again, the markets are at record highs. And again the pundits are warning of recession. But no recession is on the horizon. Confirming what has long been true. The market and the economy are unpredictable. And the pundits are right about half the time. Might as well consult a Ouija Board.
1
These new low job figures represent the lie of Trickle-down economics. It also proves the money given to the rich and big business is kept by them; remember greed is good.
These job numbers would be much greater if truly the money given trickled down to create more jobs. These figures are even lower than Obama's when saving the country from the great recession of 2008 which was caused by Trickle- down economics and not paying for two wars by the Bush administration.
The only time the Republicans are concerned about deficits is when the Democrats are in charge of the government.
7
Sadly, the unemployment numbers may not be an accurate indicator of work. As I understand it, working on the gig economy for as little as an hour a week counts as "employed", and overly broad assignment.
5
Yikes, lousy number
An average Obama second term number was above 200,000 jobs added
As for unemployment, it fell 3.6% under Obama and only 1.1% since
GDP is also decelerating, now under 2%, and the budget and trade deficits are at all-time highs
A very weak showing all around
1
@Marion Grace Merriweather Obama went from losing jobs to adding jobs. It's easy to post big numbers early in a recovery. It's harder once things stabilize. Like when you're an infant and you go from 8 pounds to 20 pounds, that's huge. When you're 30, it's not impressive to add 12 pounds.
It's slowing, but stability isn't a bad thing.
2
@Eric
1) Yes, Obama was responsible for the jobs recovery - glad you can admit it
2) By Obama's second term, the economy had recovered, but the job growth on average was STILL higher than it is today - by nearly TWICE as much
2
Even if all GM workers are added back in, October would have been just an average month for the last few months and well below the earlier pace. In addition, GM strikers were allowed to work part timehttps://www.clickondetroit.com/automotive/2019/10/12/uaw-votes-to-increase-strike-pay-allow-gm-employees-to-work-part-time-jobs-during-strike/ , so presumably many fewer than 50,000 were unemployed during October. Seems like a mediocre report at best. And as others point out, the benefits of low unemployment numbers is not flowing to workers.
1
Does health care come with those new jobs and do they pay enough to live on?
Meanwhile. farm and manufacturing bankruptcies are on the rise as employers go out of business. The coal industry is finally dying and where the H are the infrastructure improvements?
Lowering interest rates helps the wealthy not the savers. It forces more money to flow to the Wall St. bankers and traders while putting savings at risk.
Buy, hey, Christmas products are being stocked in store shelves this very day. Get ready for long season of holiday foreplay followed by a climax of consumer spending.
Be a patriot, go buy a new car. /s
4
Unfortunately far too many of these jobs are minimum wage.
5
That's a great thing but they can also give new metrics for determining the health of our economy . What's the status of new jobs , these are full time , well paying jobs ,and benefits. If the new jobs are full so https://writeessaytoday well do some special. We no longer have industries that can employ people for decent wages across substantial swaths of the socioeconomic spectrum. And we cannot build an economy solely out of esoteric services and products for personal consumption, paid for with consumer debt.
Obama kept taxes relatively low and signed 99% of the Bush tax cuts into law. Trump lowered them even further. The corporate rate was way too high.
Can you just simply lower taxes and reduce regulations and the economy does well on its own as people innovate and that's it?
Yep. Learn.
3
State of the Union is strong and we should all be content that 96.4% of Americans including resident aliens are employed and with employment comes not just money but dignity and self respect.
If wishes were horses beggars would ride. Everyone who has a job would wish they had better pay but many would say a job satisfaction is more important than a better pay. As my Mexican American friend says "contento" to describe the state of his business, family life, workout at the gym , his annual travel to his motherland and his life style in America.
Yes you need money to pay your bills and to make your living but happiness is a state of mind and to not desire more and more comes from within. Be happy with whatever little you have and you will find Nirvana and sustainability. By the wages have increased by 3% since last year to offset inflation but not to offset rent increases in urban America.
3
@Girish Kotwal
Only 61% of the population is employed
If you don't know how to read the numbers, I suggest you don't comment on them
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO
3
@Marion Grace Merriweather from NC why do I need to go on a wild goose chase links because you do. I have to go to the link that you have listed. I am quite satisfied with reading NY Times, BBC and Foxnews to get what all I need to know.
1
The Trump supporters who were unemployed under Obama are still unemployed.
It isn't the economy stupid.
2
Lies, damned lies and statistics. Everything is great according to the stats, except that the fed keeps cutting rates because it is fearful. One has always to take stats coming from the government with a grain of salt since they are motivated to spin everything as good news, but now with the most lying administration in history, and one with many malleable minions, one should suspect that what we are told is likely false. 3.6% unemployment should be an economy with huge growth, but growth is anemic.
Actually, we do not need growth. What we need is leaders who are not bought and paid for by corporations.
6
The Trump admin cooks the numbers nonstop. "Revisions" to previous quarters added 95,000? This will be an ongoing "revision". You can count on it.
1
this is getting ridiculous. seriously. month to month job growth is a lame method to assess our domestic economic success. its but one narrow variable, in a much more complex equation. the only reason we stick with these reports is because its simplistic and easy for a population of economics illiterates to grasp.
"oh look Lydia see, more jobs means we're winning." Its just NOT an up or down equation! But we seem stuck with it. all due to public ignorance.
3
As the old bromide goes, "Figures don't lie but liars figure." These Department of Labor figures don't account for the increases of Boomer retirements and people giving up and going on welfare, thereby dropping off the unemployment and employment rolls. Adding them back to the count would make the expansion look much worse.
2
The unemployment rate for African Americans fell to 5.4 percent in October, the lowest level on record.
Thank you President Trump
6
@KR
The unemployment rate for African Americans fell 6% under Obama and only 2.3% since he left
Once again, Obama scores the touchdown, and his successor kicks the extra point and pretends he did all the hard work
It's really quite embarassing that some actually think this transparent credit hogging actually resonates with people
The economy can't be good. Trump is president,
4
Can this thing crash already so younger generations can afford houses, etc?
Reality Check we stopped going out to eat all together. We stopped buying anything like car because present techolgy isnt helping our planet fossile fuels ruining planet oceans.Our government wants to improve jobs it be smart to reinstate incentives to purchase electric cars for people in usa who pay taxs. Stop providing aid to other countrys an save our planet.
1
When Obama had numbers lie this FOX NOISE repeated called him incompetent. Meanwhile with the same numbers Trump is their economic genius.
2
What kind of jobs are being added? Flipping hamburgers, census workers, and other low-paying, unskilled jobs?
That's sort of misleading.
4
In 2018, a record number of employees were involved in work stoppages, highest since the eighties.
Yeah, sounds like a great economy. Trump supporters might like a feudal economy (even if they don't know what that means), but Americans don't. We're the majority. Trump supporters are a marginalized faction; they just scream louder.
5
How likely is it that Trump has directed the Department of Labor to falsify economic data to boost his re-election chances?
4
@Matt
I'd say highly unlikely. Is that the answer you were looking for?
1
With this Trump's administration that lies all the time, I am no longer convinced that the numbers have not been manipulated and are correct! When the economy of Europe and the rest of the world is going down, I would like to know why the US are an exception. Trump has interfered with the Federal Reserve Chairman, so it is very possible that those economic number have been manipulated to look good!
2
Reality: if you factor in the strike and adjustments the number is over 300000 which is hardly a slowdown
3
@james Alan Who would believe that! An indication that the given number has been fudged by the Trump's administration!
No, Trump’s economic numbers may not be impressive but compared to what the Democrats consumed with nothing but impeachment for the last three years have contributed, they’re outstanding.
4
House Democrats haven’t been squandering time. In addition to their investigations, they’ve been passing legislation at a rapid clip. In all, the House has taken up 51 bills, resolutions, and suspensions since January — 49 of which they’ve passed.
The vast majority of the House agenda has hit a dead end in the Republican-controlled Senate.
You know Majority Leader McConnell, who seems to be working for special interests in Washington, rather than the people of the United States.
10
I thought that Democrats were the ones working for special interests with their rapid pace of passing bills without substantial input and argument from Republicans.
Look at that curve. The rate of job growth has gone down since Trump was elected.
2
So if these numbers are so strong, why did the Fed feel the need to lower interest rates just before these numbers were released? Either the Fed knows something we do not know, or they are playing politics in the worst way possible. No matter the reason, it appears we are being given very mixed messages from the markets, different sectors in our economy, the jobs numbers, consumers and yes; they Fed.
5
Seems like jobs will constantly be added to the economy as long as our president keeps changing his staff.
4
still another demonstration that the trump/republican propelled economy is doing well likely due to tax and regulatory cuts,, and is being extended in time. - This is in contrast to the Obama economy that seemed to reach exhaustion and the end of the expansion at around 2015.
8
@sh huh?
2
We need new metrics for determining the health of our economy. How many of these "new jobs" are full-time, well-paying jobs, with benefits? How many of these "new jobs" are actually the second or third job for people trying to make ends meet? As for "average hourly earnings (rising) 3 percent" from last year, the inflation rate is presently 1.7 percent (it was higher last year). So, in reality, wages have gone up barely more than a single percentage point this year. That's nothing to crow about, especially when considering the grotesque and gargantuan level of income and wealth inequality in our country.
Americans need good, well-paying jobs. Not more "gig" work, not three part-time jobs, one job that pays well enough to afford a good and stable quality of life.
218
@Dominic Thanks, Dominic! That's the real question--how "real" are these jobs, or are they more $10 an hour , part-time nonsense? I'd bet good money that very few would pay a living wage alone, let alone offer benefits. New metrics are definitely needed.
27
@Dominic
Why should wages increase beyond the rate of inflation for most workers? Have they increased in value?
2
@Dominic
According to official statistics, only about 5% of workers have multiple jobs. It's one of the few liberal economic canards.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620
5
The monthly average job growth since December 2018 continues downward, the bond market is indicating recession (no one actually calls it until well into one), wage growth peaked in early 2019 and is now in decline.
These numbers all indicate the beginning of the Trumpcession. Subtract the 1.9% GDP growth (forget about the 4-5-6% lie Trump told everyone he could produce) from the required 3% to pay for the GOP Wealth Redistribution Tax Cut, and GDP growth will miss target by over 30%!
With the Fed bowing to Trump's demands to lower rates even during full employment, when Trumpcession fully arrives, while we have record deficits, the Fed will have no options but negative interest rates.
Can you say financial nuclear bomb?
4
High employment figures are great, but many working people are still unable to afford decent housing/health insurance/savings accounts.
177
And how many of these jobs are part-time with low(er) wages and no health insurance?
69
@Derek
I simply don't buy these unemployment numbers or employment numbers either.
Part time, gig jobs, even one hour worked adds up to a "job" in these monthly numbers.
That's ridiculous!
There are two numbers that come out of the federal government that are sheer nonsense.
One is unemployment/employment and the other is inflation. Fixes are needed.
7
I’m tired of all these doom and gloom prognosticators hoping for a recession. They’re going to have to wait. The economy is doing just fine.
78
@TJ
The economy is doing pretty much the same as it's been doing for the past 10 years. Apparently it was in vogue to say it was doing poorly under a different President.
103
@Martin Ag but you’re forgetting the GOP tax scam of 2017. Corporations are paying lower taxes and the deficit is ballooning. It’s not doing fine, it’s going to crash and crash hard.
82
@TJ
Clearly, bad economic news sells. Bloomberg has been warning for two years now despite the steady stream of guests who say the economy is strong.
There's a parallel universe of people who want to believe the economy is about to crash and a media only too willing to comply (hence the negative drumbeat from the NYT). In that universe they are on the brink of disaster.
16
It's important to recognize that the economy is being propped up by Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, very possibly unwise cuts, which will leave little room to maneuver when the next recession--and there's always a next one--comes.
6
Now do pay stagnation, healthcare premium increases, childcare costs, under employment, people working more than 1 full time or part time jobs, amount of Americans with no savings, amount of Americans with no retirement, amount of Farmers declaring bankruptcy or claiming crop insurance do to flood devastation, and so on and so forth.
7
3.6% unemployment. Puhleeze. The official unemployment is so flawed it laughable. To come up with that incredibly rosy, result-driven number, the DOL fails to take into account the unemployed ranks of at least a half a dozen different groups of potential full-time workers. If we truly had 3.9% unemployment with the employed having meaningful wages and meaningful hours, people would have money shooting out of their pockets and the economy would be booming.
Further, even to the extent that it has substance, the official unemployment number is misleading because most of the jobs being created in this economy are low-wage, no-growth, "Welcome to Walmart" and Welcome to Chile's" jobs. We no longer have industries that can employ people for decent wages across substantial swaths of the socioeconomic spectrum. And we cannot build an economy solely out of esoteric services and products for personal consumption, paid for with consumer debt. There is no viable spa treatment, dog-walker, artisinal cupcake shop economy sustained on consumer debit cards.
Finally, it's worth noting that the official inflation number is also a complete joke. Like the unemployment number it is result-driven. Based on all kinds of rabbit hole caveats it reflects the costs of nobody. Any US consumer knows that the costs of housing, education, transportation, and heathcare -- to name just a few components of a middle class life -- have skyrocketed at a pace that far exceeds the official inflation rate.
114
@DD Going into the "holiday season," the employment numbers traditionally go up but that does not reflect permanent jobs at a living wage. One must remember that these numbers are being issued by the same organization that "miscounted" 500,000 jobs before. Alas, can anything coming out of this administration be trusted?
14
Gee, maybe if employers supported public education and increasing opportunity in depressed communities, they just might be able to find qualified employees? Hello? Do you understand the meaning of "consequences"?
3
@AG
The can find qualified people. What they want is qualified and cheap people. That is why they are trying to import more H1-B workers from India, to help suppress wages.
3
Yippee but few of any come with health care coverage or pension benefits. People are working more and getting paid less. The working and middle class are getting slammed and few seem to care.
8
"The only problem our economy has is the Fed" ... so says stable genius trump. Really? How about tariffs imposed willy nilly without fore thought? Or government shut downs over a wall that Mexico won’t pay for? Or a ballooning federal deficit because of tax cuts that aren’t paying for themselves? Or a complete dysfunction and utter chaos in the WH now aggravated even more by the deliberate reckless dismantling of national security? And the nonsensical tweeting about firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve doesn’t help either.
7
Come on Democrats we have to do better. We need to talk down this economy and drive it into recession. It’s the only hope. Here are your talking points against an economy that is stubbornly great: we will take away your healthcare and put the government in charge, we will raise your taxes so that illegal immigrants can get healthcare, we will open the borders and let anyone walk in, and we will make sure that there’s identity politics and ideological purity throughout the land.
How can’t that win against low unemployment? #hillaryredux
9
@Paul 'Stubbornly great' ? When I look at the graph, what do I see. I see a curve that is flattening out. All Trump has managed to do, is continue the downward trend in unemployment that started back in '10. Some accomplishment.
2
How many immigrants came in in that same period?
1
I see this article has awoken the hordes of armchair economists with their silly anecdotes, cursory understanding, and blatent agenda mongering.
5
Yes, but enough about Trump supporters.
1
@Rek
Don't forget partisan, glib comment-ers that thrive in the unhinged Left's echo chamber.
2
Where can I find a job as an economist? It's obviously a job without performance expectations or accountability.
8
Cost of living is higher, wages are stagnant, people can't afford healthcare and homelessness is at a all time high... so these studies don't have anything to do if you actually get out and talk to people. Some people are working three jobs and can't afford rent.
9
If we look at the graph, 2019 does not look nearly as good as 2018. It seems like a slowdown to me.
4
The headline metrics for measuring economic health are more a political propaganda tool than a measure reflecting economic reality. When levels of indebtedness, personal mental and physical health, and the burdens of climate change and environmental degradation are not factors in the measuring and reporting of economic “progress” there is no accurate indicator of what is really going on!
2
“Even as economists worry about signs of a hiring slowdown, many employers are focused on a different challenge: how to find workers at a time when the unemployment rate remains near a half-century low.”
Typical disconnect.
The deep state predicting (and hoping for) doom and gloom.
And the reality that Trump’s making us great again.
What does Krugman — who predicted a recession worse than the great depression if Trump wins — have to say? Maybe he will write about it and include a letter returning his Nobel prize in his next article.
3
trump claims he inherited a 'lousy' economy even though it had created 16.5 million jobs before he took over. He ignores the plain fact that the nation is a darn sight better off from the huge chasm left by Bush when the economy was in absolute free-fall, leaving in its wake a record deficit of $1.3 trillion (an unprecedented unsustainable 10% of the economy) after more than doubling the national debt, and racking up trillions more in un-budgeted costs for two wars. Obama stabilized the economy while containing a chaotic war footing in the ME, and grappled fiscally with that massive deficit reducing it at a faster rate than during WW2 demobilization to a manageable $500 billion (2% of the economy). This was a remarkable feat to which trump is totally oblivious. Now in one fell swoop this so-called president rather than building on a sound fiscal construct is recklessly throwing it all away with deficits going through the roof and mounting national debt at unprecedented levels. This is sheer lunacy.
7
@John Townsend
obama said certain jobs were never coming back. President Trump brought those jobs back.
3
The United States of America is not a business.
America is a nation state.
The President of the United States is not a businessmen.
The President of the United States is the head of government and state.
Thus 'the U.S.' didn't add any jobs.
And whatever jobs arose had little or nothing to do with an heir to the Trump Organization real estate 'empire' while he is occupying the Oval Office of the White House aka public housing.
10
So, the unemployment rate chart shows about a 2 percentage point drop in Obama's last years and slightly more than half a point in Trump's three years. And the winner is...
4
@Jimmy ... and both the deficit and the national debt are going through the roof. There's no winner here.
9
Given the Trump administration is more about protecting Trump than the truth, how can we know any data being published by the Trump administration is accurate, such as job numbers and the health of the economy?
9
@dyeus Great point, especially because Trump vilified the BLS. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he and his cronies were just making the numbers up out of whole cloth.
1
"Even as economists worry about signs of a hiring slowdown, many employers are focused on a different challenge: how to find workers at a time when the unemployment rate remains near a half-century low." But...but...look at stories the NYTimes has run recently, about worker after worker who's applied for job after job and been turned down or, worse, never replied to at all. Where is the disconnect? I suspect it's a combination of ageism (too many workers are "too old") and cost controls (these workers are "too expensive"). I have to think that the business community is, as my mom would have said, cutting off its nose to spite its face.
8
The labor numbers and dropping the prime rate are not sending the same message. Labor numbers are usually trailing indicators, while the Fed rate is often a leading indicator.
@gratis Used to be! But there's an article in this issue of the Times explaining that the way Fed is doing things these days is different. They're reactive now, instead of precautionary/proactive.
It is confusing. Yesterday NYT had
a report highlighting the difficulty
in finding a job suitable for a degree
holder with experience. It noted hundreds of resume sent without success. Today NYT quotes employers waiving degree and certificate requirement just to find employees. What is the true picture? Hotels and
restaurants added 50,000 jobs, the rest
were probably added in Amazon warehouse, Uber/Lyft with a handful
in research and teaching. It is also
mindboggling that employers have
difficulty in finding workers but unwilling
to offer higher wages and benefits.
Generally, the rule of supply and demand stipulates that price will go
up when the supply is short. somehow
the rule doesn't work in case of labor.
6
The report states the average workweek for all employees used in the statistics is 34.4 hours a week. That is not considered full time.
The statistics of new part time jobs vs new full time jobs should be clearly explained.
12
@Denise Would that were true. My spouse's employer considers 37.5 hours/week as full-time employment.
Over 30 hours is considered full time by the government for mandatory healthcare coverage for employees. Most school teachers and college professors work less than an average of 40 hours a week. Are they underemployed?
2
@Richard Winchester It is obvious you know nothing of how teachers work. As for professors, most have had their work life change drastically due to major cuts in funding with Much of the “spare cash” going to those coaches, etc in the school intercollegiate sports programs with much of that money paying for mediocrity by these over paid coaches. Oh!, most with losing seasonal records and an overall career of more losses than wins. Is the picture getting clearer for you?
128000 of what type of jobs? hotel and restaurant jobs, full time or part time? I am sick and tired of hearing this without any qualification. are these jobs well paid, do they come with health coverage, trump and the nabobs in Washington actually have no idea what its like to be an American worker, which made me laugh that a guy (trump) is just like the average worker. last time I checked no one average worker has a private 757 to go to his new home in florida. furthermore you can tell me all the data the points and how the GDP is up and it means nothing to working folks.
12
East and West coast elites didn't know what mainstream citizens thought in 2016.
They still dont know. Because they are not them.
I hope the mainstream is worried about their sick uncle and look to Democrats to expand affordable healthcare. I hope they now know Republicans dont care about anyone's sick uncle.
6
@tom
And they will keep voting GOP until they get their "better than Obamacare".
@tom When you say "east and west coast elites" do you even know what you are referring to? Please explain, this term is bandied about as if it has any actual basis in fact or reality, but I'd really love to understand what drives the perception of geographically-created elitism.
@tom
Amen, the GOP could care less about this country, and the people. It is all about putting money in their fat wallets, preaching hate and starving regular people.
All people who can get out of these backward red states need to run to the nearest exist, otherwise you will be working five jobs and paddling nowhere fast
The latest data shows that there are now 9 million more people working compared to the same time period under Obama. Trump is making America great again by putting American workers first. Wow, why didn't the other politicians ever think of this.
Instead they are trying to bring in illegals to take over the low income jobs and grant more H1B visas to foreigners to take over tech jobs.
No wonder the Swamp hates Trump. They hate American workers as well.
6
@Jon Galt
well, the population grew, didn't it?
Additionally, Conservatives seem to just forget all about the GOP Great Recession and how recessions affect the economy.
8
@Jon Galt Is this sarcasm?
1
The same level of job growth in the Obama Administration was characterized as anemic. Lol.
11
Thank you, President Trump.
9
@MBT Thank you for what?Trump adds to the record US deficit every weekend by dinging taxpayers $130 annually for his jaunts to the golf course. Meanwhile we pay for the other 19 members of his family to vacation, fly to spa appointments(Melania), and conduct Trump family business around the world.
3
200,000 jobs were weak in the Obama era! Clearly Trumpites rule the narrative!
7
Great news for Trump supporters looking for a dream job as fry cook.
13
they should apply as a repo man or at a debt collection call center, both will be hiring before too long.
And these numbers should start reflecting a bump for ramping up on seasonal workers as well, making 128k jobs even LESS impressive.
I hope this isn't the beginning of the down cycle...
3
We need to see employment reports that list items such as the following information: how many people are being hired for temporary jobs of any duration in the gig economy; how many people are being hired for any job where no benefits are provided; how many people are being hired for hourly wage jobs of any hourly rate; how many people hired have to work more than one job because their one job does not provide them a living wage; how many people over age 40 experience age discrimination in their full time job search. The people and organizations preparing the reports about how great the economy and job picture is are living in dreamland. The real economic status and job picture for millions of Americans is horrendous. Start reporting the truth.
13
Great. How many are getting living wages? How many are working and on Medicaid and Food Stamps? Lots, I bet.
19
Democrats and ‘progressives’ are rooting against the economy.
They need bad economic times.
The nation know this.
Good luck in November 2020.
8
@EGD they don't have to root against it, the fundamentals are weakening, and all of the monetary policy hocus pocus that the current administration is trying to pull to shore up what's becoming a house of cards, isn't going to make that stop.
A massive increase in the deficit, significant cut in tax revenues, tariff implications.....and the pursuit of the pipe dream of perpetual 'expansion'. It isn't even physically possible when there aren't enough people with the appropriate skills and abilities to fill the jobs available today.
If the guy in the white house had even a basic grasp on econ 101...or actually listened to those who do...
8
@EGD
No one is rooting for anything bad, people want a life with the less amount of stress. Not worrying about every medical bill and the roof falling in on them.
Life is not a tv show, we are living these days and we dont get them back, no matter how ignorant our politicians are. Under Bush we were under never ending war, No drama Obama saved the economy, Now we are in the endless story plot of nonsense.
Americans want just to be at peace and live the best life they can have
7
If unemployment is so low, who are the freeloaders that Republicans are always complaining about?
15
Oh, the numbers look great- on paper. But...as is always the case, no mention on what these jobs are: Full-time benefited; part-time- seasonal?
A neighbor got a job in October earning $12 per hour- 40 hours per week. How-ever, it will last until January: He's a fruit packer. After kiwis and pomegranates- he'll be out of a job.
So please stop running these types of articles without telling us "all of the story"-otherwise it just sounds like a Labor Department press release.
10
@Candlewick Cool story, my neighbor just got a job paying $125k/yr as a programmer. Anecdotes are worthless.
Trump said he'd be the greatest jobs president ever and he is. Upward revisions the last 3 month average 180k jobs. Wages 3% rise and in just 3 years under Trump median income up 7k compared to 400 dollars 8 years for Bush and 970 dollars 8 years Obama. Go ahead and try to impeach a president with a roaring economy. Incidentally the wages are going up faster for workers than management. Trump killing it!!!
4
@Kevin Sad that you commented without understanding the story above. Job growth is slower than last year, which was slower than the year before. Income growth is anemic, most of it accrues to the higher incomes leaving the middle and working classes behind. Look at the graphs, think about them, that will help you to understand them. Take for example your claim on wage growth. You realize, of course, that the "Obama years" figures include the catastrophic drop in jobs/wages caused by the Great Recession and not related to Obama policies. Look at the graphs to understand what you have missed.
13
@Kevin
Lots of the 3% wage rise is in states that have risen the minimum wage. GDP does not reflect a lot of that because those who get minimum wage raises simply go off Medicaid and Food Stamps to spending their own money for the same stuff.
4
@John Griswold your argument is nullified by the fact that the jobs numbers BEAT expectations and the last couple months were revised way up. The liberal talking point that things are slowing are way overexagerated. The economy is very good. Obama's problem wasn't the recession it was his anti business friendly policies. For instance in 8 years Obam lost 300k manufacturing jobs. In 3 years Trump added 500k manufacturing jobs.
When will the NYT start looking at “stagflation” again?
Of the “new jobs”: what percentage represent underemployment/employment out of field of expertise - a physicist working flipping burgers is not exactly “employed”. Nor are the (still increasing? We can’t tell) percentage of people working through third party (“temp”) agencies- these days a manner of paying effectively permanent staff lower salaries/benefits.
What would the old “market basket” and fuel/power “basket” show? Four bags of groceries at $100, gasoline and home heating oil at record prices while the US exports petroleum products at an increased rate, eliminating any kind of “fuel reserve” in case of OPEC-style action of the past.
The “Great Recession” has been followed by a period, largely brought on by Trump’s direct interference with Treasury and the Fed of continued devaluation of the buying power of the consumer dollar, made worse by the “trade war” (read: “National Sales Tax” the most regressive form of taxation imaginable).
We need to start seeing economic data in context again.
1
Eliminate welfare for anyone able-bodied, the jobs are out there.
5
@David
But keep Corporate Welfare. The more tax money people give to Corporations, the better Trickle down will work!
BTW, about 60% of working age Medicaid recipients work. About 40% full time. All of this is Corporate Welfare.
I would prefer all workers get a living wage first.
12
@David
If you really live in that location, you have one of the highest numbers of the so called illegal immigrants working in your zip codes.
Not one white company has been fined. So all those able bodied people would have a job if you hired them vs immigrants to save a dollar.
Look at yourself first before you start preaching to the choir of working people. Maybe Eric, Donald Jr. could work and stop living off of their fathers name. However they never went to war except to shooting animals
1
I'm beginning to wonder if we can trust these numbers. They don't match the reality that I see.
6
I see lots of "We're hiring" all over in the nearby college town. They're all at restaurants and fast food joints. Maybe some places pay restaurant workers well, but not so much in the middle of the country. Waitresses are still getting 2.13 an hour and tips in college towns are notoriously bad. It would be great if people could actually live on their wages without having to have two or three jobs.
10
Democrats are falling down on the job. They need to spend less so that the economy becomes weaker. As it stands now, most people, (but of course not everyone), believe that the economy is doing well. For example, GM and Ford workers and ChIcago school teachers have just received big raises. Unfortunately, some others, who are non-union, have lost high paying jobs to people who are willing to for less. The unemployed still hold out hope that they will be offered a high paying executive position in their present locale, that requires little or no new training and that they can keep until retirement. If Democrats don’t crash the economy, Trump or Pence can correctly ask if the economy is better now than in 2016, when the New York Times published articles complaining that the Obama administration had let the economy deteriorate.
3
What is the "average hourly earning"? How many of these jobs were companies hiring holiday help? And most importantly .....how many of these individual jobs can support a family?
And if the economy is so great, why are food banks in such great need and stores and restaurants going out of business?
13
@Stephanie
Same as under the sainted Barack Obama.
No sharpies were harmed in the making of this report.
4
The rules have been changed so now the banks are being bailed out through the Repo Market to the tune of hundreds of billions since September, without Congress having to vote like in the 2008 crash, or the people having a say. Something is very wrong here. Also the unemployment rate is great since it has been changed in the previous decades to count many fewer unemployed - working a gig job making close to nothing: employed - part time: employed - end of unemployment: employed - ect.
5
Who qualifies as "employed" for these figures? Does the harried single parent holding down three "jobs", count as three? Does the cab-driver who relies on fares and has to drive ten hours a day for two different firms to make rent count as two? Each of the caddies at the Swamp King's resorts who may or may not carry enough bags and get enough tips to make enough for food? (Oh, wait, I forgot; those caddies are not lawfully in the US and won't be counted.)
13
@The Lone Protestor
Only the ‘green jobs’ promised us by the sainted Barack Obama count.
1
Full employment? But it is employment that does not require 2-3 jobs just to get by? It's a different employment scenario now. Forget about planning for the future. Live from one day to the next. What's wrong with this picture?
11
Unemployment statistics are generally cited in what would appear to be a definitive, and singular, way.
However, the commonly found public statistic uses only the U-3, one of six different measures of the official Bureau of Labor Statics data [U-1 through U-6].
Unemployment measures use as a base the workforce against which the current employment serves as the underlying figure.
Here is the full range of official measures.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
What is not generally acknowledged, however, is the fact that persons who are NOT currently in the workforce, who for one reason or another, have pulled themselves out of the pool of US labor, changes the statistical framework for judging employment.
Decreases in the workforce change the statistical base against which unemployment is calculated. They make the U-3 look better by removing from consideration people who drop out of the "official workforce". They are still alive and able to work but they cease to be counted as workers.
1
@Meta1
And your point is ... what? My wife and I are both 62, certainly able to work, if we wanted to. But we both retired a little over a year ago - because we have the financial resources to live the way we want to without working, and have other things we would like to do with our time. So is the fact that we're not in the denominator of the unemployment calculation somehow skewing the picture of the US economy?
1
The good news is that unemployment is so low. The bad news is that the Fed is lowering rates, which only helps over-levered companies and their LBO overlords. The Fed is also propping up the Repo market, which only helps the big banks who lost so much money in 2008.
We have learned nothing.
10
Just about every month when the unemployment rate statistic comes out I write a comment that said statistic is practically meaningless--a far more enlightening statistic is the underemployment rate, reflecting those who want a full-time job but can't get it, or who want more hours, or who are working a gig job for which they get a 1099 when they'd prefer something more encompassing.
The unemployment rate stat unfortunately treats all jobs as equivalent, which is highly misleading. Too many of the positions we've acquired in our 10-year expansion are part-time of "gig", we still have an undersupply of living wage full time jobs, especially those with benefits.
A better stat might be the one tracking the percentage of gross national product going to labor. That, from what I've seen, has been depressed for a long time; even if it has increased a bit since 2007-9, it's still nowhere near what it was in latter part of the twentieth century.
23
Millennials will be paying for the deficit financed tax cut long after Trump voting boomers are gone.
15
The American consumer's spending power hasn't changed since the 1980's. The tax break for the rich did nothing to stimulate American growth, wages or R&D.
Employers are clutching their pearls and keeping their liquidity, rather than take risks in the fraught global environment of tariffs, sanctions, trade wars and interrupted supply chains.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines "employed", in their glossary, as having worked 1 hour for pay during the week of their monthly survey.
With such a low standard of what is considered "employed", these BLS monthly reports mean virtually nothing.
Some Americans personal financial outlook is positive -- those with full-ime, long-term jobs with benefits, who work in service sectors.
But the majority face wage stagnation and no escape from debt, or the cost of supporting oneself in America -- which is exorbitant.
The consumers will not be supporting the U.S. economy much longer -- and the Administration is not of a mind to stimulate, with incentives, wage growth, new infrastructure and green energy jobs.
Pearl clutching to continue ...
18
So the real jobs gain was 178,000, not 128,000, which blockbuster good news. And wages rose 3% year over year, also great news. Inflation is well in check. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, which most economic experts consider to be full employment. Meanwhile, employment levels for African Americans and Hispanic Americans are at record highs. Now for the real question: How will all the socialist Democrats running for president spin this great economic news as bad for America?
16
@paul -- before you mount your high horse, you should read the BLS monthly report. The glossary is particularly helpful toward understanding their statistics. For instance, the BLS considers a person "employed" if they work 1 hour for pay during the week of the BLS monthly survey. That is a ridiculous threshold to be considered employed -- but verify it in their glossary.
Set time aside -- it's a large report with tons of valuable information. The headline "jobs added" is an inaccurate portrayal of labor in America, as you will discover.
18
@Tom Compare these numbers to any month of the Obama administration, and you will be forced to agree with every point I made.
4
@Tom Amazing, just amazing how good news can be shredded and discarded as irrelevant, if the Dems were in charge these results would be viewed as supremely over the top, just nirvana in every respect. Please sit back and enjoy an American economy that hasn't ever been better for all Americans!
3
With those job numbers, it's a good time to tackle the deficit/debt. Or is it in part contributing to the propping?
7
Keep digging NYT and I'm pretty sure you'll find a way to hammer the administration about any slight scintilla of good news coming out of the economy. Ever vigilant.
12
I see the prior commenters all view a 90 percent full glass as 10 percent empty.
10
@RM
Democrats and ‘progressives.’
Everything rots unless they’re in control then it’s all sweetness and light.
3
Considering the trillions of taxes the leading candidates in the Democratic primary want to levy on businesses I wonder if there really is a need for a Dem president at this time. Let Trump play his silly games with Ukraine, I don't care about that as long as I receive a pay check every two weeks.
10
Always amusing, when good news is reported, to read the negative comments by sour & crabby anti-Trump folks, because that’s all they care about. Had this report come during the Obama era, the complainers would be happy and spinning a different story.
10
@Edwin I bet you were complaining back during the eight years President Obama was getting the country and the rest of the economies of the world back to some semblance of order. geez......
1
But minimum wage has been $7.25 for ten long years.
For shame!
20
@MIMA
Fast food joints around are offering $15/hour.
In other words, the market is blowing away a Democrat talking point.
3
@EGD
Fast food joints are offering $15 an hr in states that have already raised the minimum wage above the federal minimum wage of $7.25. And most of those places, like NY and CA have large populations of Democrats. Now in places that lean more red, and the state minimum wage has not been raised beyond the fed rate, workers with degrees, skills, and years of experience are made to feel like they should be grateful to be offered $12-15 an hour for jobs that requires them to use and improve upon hard skills, which took time and money to attain.
And my stepson was fortunate to get a job at a McDonald's in NY last year. He was 16 and started out at $15. But he never got more than 10-15 hours a week and his older coworkers typically worked 2-3 jobs with no certainty in hours and pay from one week to the next.
Democrats and Republicans alike should want more than higher wages. As a freelancer I know that higher wages without security and consistency = a never ending cycle of feast and (more often than not) famine.
1
Hilarious to see that Trump manages to beat the projections by a wide margin and the New York Tumes decides to report that as a negative event. Seriously?
12
@Jack
Because the projections were pretty low. 128k jobs is nothing to write home about. It’s an anemic number. Trump said he would give us 3-4% growth for the economy, but we’re below 2%.
5
Good news again. Listening to the Fed question and answer session with the media, I was struck by how upbeat its economic prognosis was. You'd never know it from reading the NYT.
10
Low rates and massive deficit spending continues to juice the Barry Bonds economy.
8
The whole Unemployment metric is deceitful. it does not count the hundreds of thousands of people who lost their jobs and will never be able to find anything comparable replace them, so they just exit the labor market. 50,000 Americans a year commit suicide! Wonder how many just gave up trying to make ends meet! That is not reflected by the unemployment numbers. “Business hiring as a result of the tax cuts”. Are you kidding? Corporations just bought their own stock back. I don’t remember hearing of them hiring anybody because of tax cuts, which never “trickled down” to the employees. A much better metric would be Labor force Participation, which is currently at about 39%, roughly the same as Honduras and El Salvador. A very misleading article
32
How many jobs were for the census (temporary)?
6
As GM goes so goes tbe nation. Probably more true anymore, or at least lets hope not.
1
If consumer spending drops significantly, many over leveraged companies, particularly those put in play by leveraged buyout firms ( private equity firms) will all tank. & Back into recession we go!
Trump's battered and abused Federal Reserve just lowered interest rates to prop up Trump's tax-cut casino economy.
There are plenty of jobs with unlivable wages and zero health insurance where you might get shot thanks to a gun tucked every under pillow in America.
Three cheers for the new Trump-GOP Gilded Age !
31
Minimum wage jobs, unaffordable healthcare and living expenses and 0.1% Welfare Queen programs as far as the eye can see.
Three cheers for the new Gilded Age !
30
Perspective seems to be everything here. Just heard an analysis on NPR, and the "expert" said the report is all good news and indicates a possible turnaround from the slow, downward trend. This article is more negative. What to believe?
4
I'm doubting the authenticity of what we normally trust. Given that Trump regularly lies about anything and everything... why wouldn't they just goose the numbers from the Commerce Dept. at his request. Consider the source. There is no credibility with these folks.
3
"Don't believe these phony numbers. The number isn't reflective. I've seen numbers of 24%. I actually saw a number of 42% unemployment. 42 percent. ... that's the biggest joke there is in this country. The unemployment rate is probably 20%, but I will tell you, you have some great economists that will tell you it's at 30, 32%. And the highest I've heard so far is 42%."
2
This one little data point is nice, but it is about as meaningful as the temperature today in a weather report.
THIS IS WHAT WE SHOULD BE TALKING ABOUT:
"A smaller share of working-age adults — particularly men — have full-time jobs, and wage growth has been slow."
And I don't suppose anyone wants to focus on the debt that is drowning our society, condemning a whole generation.
It ain't right that someone has to carry student debt so long that they can't purchase a home before they reach deep middle age and also short change their retirement funding along the way. Oh, oh, and actually consider sending their kids to college.
People in their 30's and 40's are crippled by the wealth transfer to the top. It is indeed time for a revolution.
Warren is right. Yang is right. Bernie is right.
35
Actually, over 80,000 workers in 13 states are on strike. That’s a sign of how bad the economy is - not something we do should use as an excused se for lackluster job creation numbers.
It’s also a sign that labor is coming back! We can’t depend on either party to help working people, so we help ourselves.
Warren and Sanders have plans for reinvigorating the labor movement - and they are leading the other candidates and their tired moderate views in the latest pol in Iowa.
12
You know that Warren’s a Democrat who insists she’s a capitalist, and sanders insists he’s a socialist and is running as a Democrat, right?
5
@Ed Watters
I think it's clear that, despite the protestations of the MAGA crowd, the economy clearly is weakening. But an increase in strikes probably ISN'T a sign "of how bad the economy is."
People tend to strike when the labor market is healthy, because they have leverage (employers will find it hard to replace them).
I think Casselman is incorrect in saying unemployment was skewed by the GM workers' strike. They are not. Striking workers are not considered unemployed unless they permanently lose their jobs.
14
These employment numbers are almost meaningless because we live in an extraordinary time. 10,000 Boomers are retiring every day! They are not counted as unemployed, but they are also not productive. They will eventually become a drag on society as their health problems increase. So is the economy really growing, or are we just backfilling?
10
@EW - You bring up an important point: the demographic profile matters. Look back to the 'golden age' of the 50s and 60s - how many retirees did workers have to support then? Very few. It seemed like everybody was either a young couple, or a child.
Now things are very different, and it feels like there are ten elderly retirees for every baby born.
4
@EW
This is one of the benefits of immigration; people of working age are over-represented among immigrants, filling the gap created by a large cohort retiring, followed by smaller cohorts in their peak earning years. (Illegal immigrants using phony social security numbers also feed money into the social system which they cannot recoup, but nobody wants to talk about that.)
I think the problems created by cohorts of different sizes don't get nearly as much attention as they should.
1
I see from the comments that most people don't understand the nature of the job market. Every month, millions of jobs are added and millions of jobs are eliminated. The headline number is the difference: jobs added minus jobs eliminated. Even within the array of existing jobs, millions of workers quit one job and start a different one every month.
So it doesn't really make sense to ask what the 128,000 new jobs pay, or who is getting them. The economy is very dynamic, and how workers fare is complex. Many people still start at the bottom in an entry level job, jump around a bit, and end up with making three times as much after ten or fifteen years, while others stay with the same employer and get small or no raises during the same period. They both have their reasons for doing what they do. They may trade pay for convenience and and pleasant working conditions, or they may be tough as nails and willing to put up with anything to make big bucks. That's the job market!
22
Interesting that striking workers are counted in the jobless number, since technically they still have a job - they're just not going to work.
Makes one wonder what other interesting nuances are to be found in how the job numbers are calculated. But, I guess we kinda knew that already, since Obama's numbers looked pretty good after the recovery was well underway yet there were enough people dissatisfied to end up electing a con man demagogue as POTUS.
12
Weak report. The US needs 150K jobs added each month just to keep up with population growth.
Could it be the result of tariffs and the uncertainty of the policies of a guy who rules from his gut, using ideological beliefs that are wrong, but that he has held on to for years?
17
@PRRH 150K new people come in the job market every month?
@Charlie
Yes, that sounds about right. That 150K monthly figure would imply an expansion in the labor force of approximately 2 million annually. The US population is likely to expand by something like 2 million this year, I believe, so the expansion in the number of available workers should be in the same general ballpark (there's a delayed effect, of course, as many new workers were born around the year 2000).
1
48,000 in "Food Services."
Does this include all those people I see in WF shopping for others? Or all those people on bikes delivering meals?
All minimum wage jobs without benefits?
This is good?
47
@Deflated It is good compared to them not having a job.
3
Shhhh! Mustn’t concern yourself with the quality of the jobs - just cheer job creation!
4
@Ed Watters Nah, fewer jobs would be better.
I don't believe in fairy tales.
This may be what the "job" scene appears to be however, it is to me an incentive to look good to generate more spending during the holidays to make businesses look better. Secondly, we have a huge population of over 55 that needs to work that daily are being let go due to discrimination of age, sex and other aspects. So this to me is just a joke by our current administration.
13
@Laurie S. What does this mean? That the current administration made up these numbers?
Enthusiastic consumer spending often entails significant debt, no? The more people spend, the more many of them owe. Sites such as creditcards.com offer a rather scary look at the extent of this debt. It's rising. So is repayment delinquency. What happens when these "supportive consumers" decide that enough is enough and that they can't afford any more borrowing on their plastic? Lowering the federal interest rates will of course make credit-card spending and loan borrowing more attractive, since those rates will also go down. But people tend to compensate by increading their total expenditures. It's a deceptive enticement. Going broke is still going broke.
And the ordinary folks who diligently save money - as best they can manage - and invest it against a downturn will get kicked in the teeth. People with RRSPs, TFSAs, RIFs. Even a person with modest savings will feel the hit. This would not seem helpful to older consumers in particular.
I'm not an economist. But I think a fair question would be "Does robust spending result in robust debt loads?" I'd like to hear an informed take on this particular situation. If you can provide one, thanks in advance.
11
What kind of jobs are being created, versus those being lost? Are they good paying jobs? I do not have the numbers to support my guess, but the structural changes in the economy suggest that labor is continuing to lose out. In the 1960's TV show "The Jetsons," both labor and capital benefited from technology/automation. That is not how it has gone. Instead, capital is taking all the benefits as income inequality increases. It makes sense when you consider that with more technology/automation, that the actual value of labor decreases. Hence, pay for all but those in jobs that are in demand, are losing out.
10
Sure, we have jobs, but how many of us will be able to stop working before we hit our 70s? I myself am finally doing fairly well, but it's taken nearly 20 years working in my industry in my position to build up the income that allows me to say that. Even so and now well into my mid-late 40s I know unquestionably that I still have 25 years at minimum working before I'll be able to 'retire'.
Having a job is great, sure. That's not in question. We simply are not being paid enough, and until we are, the economy in this country is never going to 'feel' right.
74
@M.A.A
If you want this, you should go to another country, pay 55% in taxes and wait for the day you can retire.
8
@AACNY what I *want* is to put in my decades of hard work serving the public (which is what I do), like I'm expected to do and like I'm happy to do as a productive and responsible member of this society, while being able to see a light at the end of that tunnel. What I *want* is to be compensated fairly enough that I can achieve those goals without having to slave away my entire adult life.
Taxes have literally nothing to do with it.
17
@AACNY oh, that was unexpected from a right winger, the hammering of a well reasoned argument with wholesale ignorant hyperbole. May be try to follow the math M.A.A. did: A 3% average wage growth minus 1.7% inflation or so a year leaves the average person with.....? Now compare that wage “growth” with the gains made by the top 1% since 2010, or the start of the economic recovery. But yes, “go somewhere else if you don’t like it” works almost all the time at a Trump rally, I bet.
8
In its jobs reporting, the NYTimes consistently ignores the number of jobs needed to keep pace with population growth. The usual estimate by economists is about 125,000 jobs/month, which means this was about a break-even month without real growth.
Perhaps more important is the nature of the jobs created, are they jobs that people can live on or are they marginal part-time jobs?
30
I confirm buy stocks when Trump is in power. But certainly sell it when he is losing.
7
In these articles you should always mention that the employment rate includes everyone who is employed at for as little as one hour a week. It includes the many people who struggle to get by on three jobs a week with no benefits or health insurance.
117
@Maggie
Real reporting would have included this information; a quick rehashing of a Labor Department press release- won't. Perhaps the reporter can tell us why he didn't included any of those details.
4
Does Consumer Spending include health insurance?
40
Great news! Wages are outpacing inflation.
18
@Jackie And you believe that nonsense? The next time you go grocery shopping and purchase products you are used to purchasing, look at the number of ounces that are in that container. If you can remember, this time last year, how many ounces did you receive at a cheaper or even the same cost?
Inflation is insidious. I can tell you anything I want to especially if the consumer is not aware of the fact that containers are made to look like the same size each were previously. A good example is ice cream. 16 ounces is a pint, however, many ice creams are placed in containers that appear to be 16 ounces, however, the small print reveals that the container is sold, for the same price, or higher, except one receives 14 ounces. What do you call that one? Wake up please, someone is lying to you about the economy!
When people are working 3 part time jobs or the so-called 'gig' economy opportunities equate with a reduction in the amount of Social security retirement or God forbid, disability payments you might receive. That may seem not to effect you today, but in the future when you are dependent upon those payments to make ends meet, you will be unable to say or effect change about anything.
I can go on and on. Thanks to the 'gig' economy, many people do not have workers' compensation, short term disability or the employers' contribution to FICA or your disability, retirement or survivors' account. Keep believing the GOP hype is all I can say.
15
@Rita Harris
The example you give about inflation--getting 14 oz. of ice cream in what is supposed to be a pint--has been going on for some decades now. I first noticed it in the 1980s when buying a can of cat food. It used to be 6 ounces, but all of a sudden the same size can only contained 5.5 ounces--and of course the price didn't drop.
1
@Martha Shelley
Yes, the provision of less for more was originated I believe with Reagan. You remember, another GOP individual who hoodwinked the American middle class. BTW, the size of the cat food bag/can was contingent upon the brand. Today, its everything... food, 15 minutes of work included as employment, self-employment the same as being employed by someone else, gig employment the same as real employment, including medical insurance, workers' compensation, off the job disability. we both agree, I think this jobs report ain't worth the paper its printed upon.
2
The economic end/crash will come. With record consumer, corporate, student and gov't debt, it's all a house of cards.
The only question is when and how bad.
128
@Paul The Middle Class has been hollowed out with no raises and many working 3 jobs to pay the rent, feed their kids, pay their health care premiums and many more expenses they can't keep up with. What good are $10/hr jobs without benefits if you go further into debt working more hours?
49
@Jacquie Thank you for your reply. You are preaching to the choir, agree 100%.
1
@Paul -- When Elizabeth Warren is elected.
Some of the consumer spending may be the result of the banks offering 0% credit for 18 or 24 months. When there is no interest, larger projects or spending on entertainment can be comfortably done. Between that and the BOGOs popular in retail, I wonder what the inflation rate would be without it, and what the employment figures might be. I think that the banks know more about the deflationary pressures than the fed.
16