Who ordered the blowing up of apartment buildings that was the pretext for the second Chechen war?
12
america and russia - now each a vast criminal enterprise and kleptocracy
37
We can dream. Putin falls and takes Trump with him. Could nothing be sweeter than this?
31
I guess Navalny is getting old to inspire the Russian youth. Sobol is a new face, and could be more acceptable to other pro-democrats. Hopefully she doesn't have a YouTube video where she called to exterminate non-Russians, as Navalny did, what put him on the wrong footing with other pro-democratic force. One of the problems with pro-democrats in Russia is their number is relatively small, but the number of pro-democratic parties are too big. There were two pro-democratic candidates in the last Russian Presidential elections (Sobchak and Yavlinsky) represented two different parties, and none got support of Navalny.
1
What’s the Russian word for ‘nasty’? Maybe if Putin called Sobol nasty all his problems would go away. All joking aside, 1) suspending sanctions, 2) suspending aid to Crimea, 3) inviting Russia back into the G7, 4) shifting funds intended to protect Europe to build a wall, 5) floating Russian nuclear power stations in the Arctic, 6) exploding nuclear missiles that fell into the sea - somethings going on. Are Republicans paying attention?
14
Beware ! The next Russian president could be a stable genius. Putin strikes me as very reserved and cautious in his words and deeds, in fact a grown up in a room full of hysterical children.
7
"enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism"
This is the same playbook Putin is having Trump use for him in the US. Trump is a Russian asset.
24
And interesting, Trump-haters who are convinced he is a stooge of Putin either don't realize or prefer not to know that the same group Fusion GPS that was paid by the DNC and the Clinton campaign to cook up the discredited Steele Dossier, has been quite active in trying to nullify the Magnitsky Act -- mentioned in the Stephens column -- which slapped stiff sanctions on Putin cronies after the murder of Sergei Magnitsky and tried to discredit businessman Bill Browder who has the goods on Putin and many of his cronies.
The Barr/Durham/Horowitz investigations will most likely show the Steele Dossier was actually overall Russian disinformation campaign to simply sow chaos among the American electorate regardless of political party, with the Democratic Party and the Trump-Putin Collusion Conspiracy peddlers either unwittingly serving as actual stooges of Putin, or who knows in some cases willingly due to unremitting hate for Trump regardless. If you want just one piece of evidence, it is now known that Fusion GPS heads met many times with the same Russian lawyer and FSB agent Natalia Veselnitskaya during their efforts to nullify the Magnitsky Act. Donald Jr met with her only one time at Trump Tower, decided the meeting was worthless, but the Trump-hate media nonetheless turned one meeting into "The Manchurian Candidate - Part II."
https://www.independent.co.uk/News/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jr-russian-lawyer-steele-dossier-natalia-veselnitskaya-gps-fusion-a7834541.html
2
Mugabe was dethroned about two years ago by an ‘intervention” process similar to impeachment .
2
“Nemtsov continues to haunt the Kremlin. So do Sergei Magnitsky, Natalia Estemirova, Alexander Litvinenko and Anna Politkovskaya, to name just a few of the regime’s murdered adversaries ...”.
Haunts? No way. Those poor destroyed souls don’t haunt Putin or his regime in the least. The distinct possibility of joining them underground does.
It’s one reason behind Putin’s relentless attacks on Europe and the United States. He aims to install corrupt tools and puppets who will weaken their nation’s legal systems sufficiently so they won’t confiscate his wealth covertly parked in their stock and bond markets and high-end real estate. Russia’s looted wealth. A people’s inheritance stolen by him and through his Round Table of “oligarchs”, “capodecinas” in mafia parlance.
Should Putin ever be forced to flee Russia, driven into exile, an enfeebled West will be his bolt hole.
6
"— enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism —"
You forgot "have the full support of the 'Christian' church."
If both Putin and Don continue to sink over the Fall I'd bet on a nice little war in Iran to distract both populations.
10
Similar to our dangerous belief in American Exceptionalism is the Russians' long-held attachment to the idea of their nation's "soul," which encompasses a quasi-mystical fealty to "Mother Russia" and the belief that Russia has a divinely inspired mission to lead a pan-Slavic empire. A smiling Putin, like so many Russian autocrats before him, exploited this deep-seated strain in the Russian personality to gain total political power. But as the Russians know better than anyone else, absolute power easily tips into absolute corruption. When they sooner or later wake up to Putin's villainy, they will overthrow him. And the atavistic quest for Russia's "soul" will continue just as before.
61
Bret Stephens: "Sobol’s doggedness recalls Eliot Ness’s pursuit of Al Capone in 'The Untouchables'.”
^ ... Wait ...
I thought for a second you meant the actual Untouchables who were special agents for the U.S. Bureau of Prohibition, but the word "in" in your sentence clearly indicates the 1980s action flick or the even cheesier TV show.
I guess your readers should be thankful you didn't liken Sobol to Steven Seagal in "Above the Law" or Jean-Claude Van Damme in "Time Cop" or other culturally-important films that one watches when writing about Putin's Russia.
6
Behold - the near future of the USA. Unless we stop the fascists now.
8
When Putin falls, what follows will more likely be another dictatorship rather than establishment of a liberal democracy. Russia had a shot at democracy after the break up of the USSR but ended up with Putin. The historical context back then was more favorable for a rise of a democracy. Today with the assent of populism in Europe, the US and elsewhere chances of are slim to none.
12
I so admire her courage. Like the Hong Kong protestors these people are willing to put everything on the line for democracy, justice and freedom.
We could learn so much from there here, in this time of Trumpian darkness.
15
I believe that the courage that Sobol exemplifies is alive within the Russian people. As Stephens points out the list of murdered journalists and opposition leaders is not lost on them either. At some point in the near future they will rise up and with their voices remove the Kleptocrats from power.
3
The columnist relies on an interesting hypothetical, as all do from time-to-time, protecting both-sides-of-the-issue. Consider another hypothetical. What will our nation do if the power-that-is assassinates Americans because Russian assassination works so well that the power-that-is wants Putin back at his table? The assassinations were real. The desire to add Putin to a G8 is vivid and public. The columnist foresees that succeeding. Consider that the power-that-is does not fear prosecution. Why would a small-minded, weaponized fascist, with supporters like his, legislature in pocket, own lawyers ensconced in his government and court personnel publicizing that they have his back, fear anything? The common answer to the issue is a diversion that he is so inept at language that he cannot mean what he says. Yet, he forecasts every ill action: it is incorrect that he is inept at language. He demonstrates daily that he means the nation ill because it suits private purposes.
7
The US has a higher rate of incarceration than any other country.
The wealth gap in the US is higher than in Russia.
The US domestic problems, and the climate crisis are far more a threat than Russia.
The survivability of the world would be more likely if the US would learn to get along with other countries, rather than its very costly, losing attempt to dominate the world.
6
I am afraid that even if Putin can somehow be dislodged that Russia will never be a liberal democratic state because it is not a liberal democratic society - it is a traditionalist society with a weakness for authoritarian rulers. My guide here is Stephen Kotkin of Princeton, the biographer of Stalin. Yes of course there is a liberal educated elite living in the cities but Mother Russia is more than any of even all of its cities, and the people in the vast expanses are not liberals and do not want Western ways. Whatever happens to Russia's government we in the West should view them not as enemies but as partners - we have more in common with them than with the other civilizations of the world.
3
A dictator meets an opponent he can’t co-opt, corrupt, calumniate, cow or coerce.
Wow! That's all i read so far. It sure does make sure I'm inspired to read the entire column
Nah. It’ll be old fashioned jealousy and revenge. He’ll be killed by an enraged spouse or partner of a “ business consultant “.
Live by the sword, die by the knife.
Bret,
You must be one of those humanities guys who took some history classes, but, they were all take home tests over the weekend.
Seems like you have forgotten your history.
Joseph Stalin survived 100% of all efforts to remove him or kill him.
Something like 35 million people starved or were murdered by his "policies".
Vladimir Putin is not going anywhere.
This is why I recommend State Schools for everyone. History is just as important at Texas A&M as Physics.
No take home tests either. All time, in class exams. Gotta learn it and remember it.
5
We need our own political slogan for Nov 2020.
Vote Russia, vote Trump - 2020!
1
@joe parrott Moscow Mitch doesn't like his new slogan much. We need others like it for those who take Russian Oligarch's money for re-elections.
6
Now, to make sure this article appears in every Russian newspaper in the country ….
2
Putin is as nuts as Trump. He recently offered to sell to the US those hypersonic nuclear missiles he is working on “I told Donald, ‘if you want, we’ll sell them to you and that’s how we keep everything balanced right away’.
3
Very good analysis.
Putin's poodle, stable genius, and budding meteorogist, one Mr. Donald Trump, may help prolong the reign of the Russian rat but every rat has his day.
Wouldn't it be sweet to see both of them ridiculed out of power. The pathetic dopes.
When the people laugh at the dictator, his power drains.
He melts like a witch in the rain.
4
You just put a stamp on this woman death sentence. Showing up on the front page of the NYT is not always good.
3
Putin is what happens when the Mafia takes over a major government.
6
Mr. Stephens does not know much about Russian politics. His views about the future of Putin’s rule are much too optimistic. This article does his readers a disservice by inspiring false hope that Putin will be gone anytime soon.
Russia has had two revolutions in the past century. The first one in 1917 was incredibly violent and led to a regime so bloodthirsty that it murdered more innocent people than Hitler did.
Russians had to wait more than 70 years for that regime to fall in a revolution that was much more peaceful and led to much less blood shed overall—- But Russia is Russia, and so innocent people are still being murdered in prison by Russia’s ruthless leader— although not nearly as many as the communists did. They most likely will have to wait at least 70 more years for the next revolution— If it ever comes at all.
Russia has been ruled by bloodthirsty gangsters its entire history. It has never known the rule of law or the concept of civil rights for citizens. The protests this summer involved a tiny number of Russians, the vast majority of whom know nothing about them because the media are tightly controlled by the Kremlin. The Russian people are famous for quietly tolerating incredible hardships and inhumane conditions without protest,
If I want insight about Russian politics, I’ll get it from writerswho understand Russia, like Masha Gessen. Bret Stephens’s amateurish musings are not
5
One fact that is often overlooked is that Russia is not a world power it was when the Soviet Union existed. It depends almost exclusively on oil revenues and has a economy no bigger than Texas. If they didn’t have nukes they wouldn’t be a factor in world politics.
Like the fake missiles they paraded every May Day, Russia is a sham.
6
The electrification of transportation will depress world oil prices in the next five years. When that occurs the Russian economy will crash. Certainly, that instability is not necessarily positive. But it will occur. We are to plan for now.
It really doesn't matter what the United States does. The rest of the world is going to electrify their transportation even if our corrupt system allows for the fossil fuel industry to delay it in the United States. So get ready for a bumpy ride.
5
At "election" time, Putin is also known for throwing in a few red herrings to confuse the voters and dilute the opposition. Like say...hmmm...a so called "Green" Party candidate!
What was Jill Stein doing at Vladimir Putin's dinner table with General Michael Flynn in 2015? How does something that unlikely come about? Coincidence? Really?
9
Watching the numerous ways that Trump cow-tows to Putin at every opportunity, I have to wonder just what it is that Putin holds over him. The things Trump does, and continues to do, to placate Putin are, in a word, treasonous.
18
One of the Putin's victims mentioned here is Denis Voronenkov. According to an investigative article in The Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/05/magazine/denis-voronenkov-assassination-russia-ukraine.html), Voronenkov was a serial fraudster and a "very talented swindler". He was very comfortable in Russia, but then he grew a little too greedy. His money grabbing became a little too brazen and the law started catching up to him. He fled to Ukraine and announced he was persecuted by the Putin's regime. Then he was shot. The man had many enemies -- people he had robbed, people he had attacked using his position in government.
If Mr. Stephens has to resort to using characters like Voronenkov to make his case, I think it means something.
3
The Russian people suffer from a bad case of restrictions on a free press.
I think trump wishes he could crush the media.
Is ignorance bliss?
4
Putin will leave at a time of his choosing, and not a minute sooner. History teaches that dictators rarely leave voluntarily, and are rarely forced from office.
Rather, the far more common course is that they lead for decades, and then install their hand-picked successors. Putin did this once with Medvedev in 2012, who had worked out an agreement with him to be a place holder, as the Russian Constitution barred Putin from serving 3 consecutive terms.
When Russian voters learned of the "deal" they were naturally outraged. But their protests were put down by Putin's paramilitary forces who were loyal to only him.
The fact is, Putin will engage in this "scheme" throughout the remainder of his life, all the while tightening his grip on power. He knows no amount of protest can touch him, as long as the people loyal to him will do literally anything to ensure he remains in power.
Sound familiar? It should. There is no reason why this nation couldn't experience such a history. Now, our Constitutional 2 term limit does present a problem for Trump, but he has never let the law get in his way thus far, and like Putin, he has millions of heavily armed loyalists willing to do literally whatever he tells them. And if he tells them that he needs them to "enforce" his declaration of martial law, this is exactly what they'll do.
All dictatorships share this quality, be they Putin's or Trump's. And that is, galvanizing a strong, rabid, heavily armed minority to ensure their power.
6
The day in 2010 that SCOTUS sent down their infamous Citizen's United decision, they sent an unmistakable signal that that American politicians were now for sale That dark day unlatched the door that kept rich autocrats like Vladimir Putin and MBS at bay, and allowed Putin to slither his way into country's political leadership.
From Boris Johnson and Brexit, to Donald Trump and 2016 - by way of Cambridge Analytica and millions of corrupt Rubles sitting in NRA bank accounts - the tendrils of Vladimir Putin's influence are long, insidious and corrupting. It is my belief that this one individual - Mr Putin - has done more damage to the Western alliance and to liberal democracy, than any one since Nikita Kruschev and the hey day of the USSR. The sooner he disappears from the world stage, the better for us all.
298
@Hoops n Politics Spot on! You win comment of the day!
18
@Hoops n Politics also aided and abetted by Mitch McConnell.
18
Russia has centuries of experience with repressive governments and just a little with democracy. I think Putin and his successors will weather this storm.
35
@NJNative I agree. Russia has no history of democracy. It is the heir to Byzantine imperial autocracy and will remain that, whether it is tsarist, communist, oligarchical or whatever. Putin is perfect for Russia: THE NEW ALEXANDER NEVSKY OR PETER THE GREAT. EVEN CATHERINE THE GREAT WAS MORE ENLIGHTENED THAN PUTIN, SO WAS ALEXANDER II.
12
@NJNative ... you stole my thunder. And your observation is exactly why I also believe Putin will weather the storm.
5
One can only hope that hard-hitting commentary such as this speeds up the process.
This article is reminiscent of old soviet propaganda but with western flavor. The truth is that very few people in Russia care about dissidents like Sobol or Nemtsov. under Vladimir Putin Russia and Russian people enjoyed an unprecedented period of prosperity and stability. Never in modern history Russian people lived as well as they do now. Americans are naturally upset about that because as their former loser president liked to say that after sections "Russian economy was shattered". So, it is very sad that outlets like nyt would still promote those marginals in Russia forgetting (or intentionally omitting )the real story that Putin is popular and liked.
1
The Danes defied the Nazis by simply not cooperating. If oppressors have to do the work of those who they would oppress, their whole system disintegrates. If the Russians decide that life under Putin is no life at all, he’s going to have to leave.
Putin brought order from chaos but since then Russia has not improved for most Russians. Putin knows how to seize and control what others have created but he cannot do it himself nor can he lead in a way that helps others do so. He’s nothing but a clever thug.
3
The Democrats should invite Ms. Sobol to address Congress.
8
Stephens implies that Putin is jealous of Trump. Could Putin stand in the middle of Red Square and shoot somebody and not lose any voters?
1
Trump has the ruthless instincts to follow Putin's path ihere. Our institutions have bent but not broken but there is a new battle every day and given enough time Trump could weaken further our system becoming a dictator in the Putin mold. What slows the dissolution is stupidity, incompetence and an ego turned pathologically on itself. God help us if he was as smart and as clear eyed as Putin. Vote this sociopath out in 2020.
4
Would that dictators fell because they should.
3
You don’t need to know much about Bret Stephens to know he doesn’t know the first thing about Russia.
5
You referred to Mr. Mugabe as a tryant. Evil is the better word. But calling a spade a spade has fallen out of fashion. Mr. Putin is maybe a strongman.
George Clark
Keep dreaming , currently he controls Trump like a puppet.
4
It’s a false hope that Putin’s days are numbered. The inertia is in the other direction as autocratic oligarchs strut their venal stuff around the globe.
I’ll be the first to applaud if the Russian people can pry Putin away from power.
50
How did Mugabe fall? Age. How will Putin fall? Age.
So, another 20-35 years of Putin.
4
What horrid autocracy, dictatorship, domination, hegemony, oppression, subjugation, tyranny.
Russia must revolt.
Corruption spreads everywhere in the world, even in good ole USA.
A group of my friends and I examine political articles and discuss them on line. We wonder if the USA is becoming more and more like Russia every day.
Recently, after discussing the current 2020 election campaign, one friend made this statement to us in quotes below:
"We are not going to do anything about global warming.
We are not going to do anything about preventing a nuclear war.
We are not going to do anything about economic inequality or poverty.
The elites are in charge. They control the media, the governments, the means of production and the money supply. Their final coup was in 2008. It’s over and it can be felt."
Most of Putin’s victims have been Russian. But let’s never forget Paul Klebnikov, an American journalist who had the courage to go to Moscow and report on oligarchs, and was gunned down in a Moscow street.
Shame on any American who defends Putin.
6
Every day I read in the American mainstream media multiple stories exactly like this one, depicting foreign nations and their leaders as hateful, sinister and dangerous to our country. These US manipulators of mass opinion understand that it is very important psychologically to reduce the millions of innocent men, women and children who live in Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Syria, North Korea, Cuba, etc., to One Evil Man who then can be "taken out." Which of these countries will the American military bomb, invade and occupy next?
1
The “mainstream media,” the New York Tines in particular, has covered in great detail, and sometimes at great personal risk to their correspondents, the sufferings of all the people you list. And they have also bravely covered the dictators like Putin, Maduro, and many others who help make their lives miserable. Without our “mainstream media” we would be as in the dark about these things as the citizens of those countries you name.
3
"That formula [has worked for Putin so far] — enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism...
Isn't it interesting that this paragraph sounds like Trump? "Enrich the cronies": check. "Terrify the foes" (the centrists in his party, the press, egging on domestic terrorists against the rest of us): check. "Placate the urban bourgeoisie" (the stock market, good economic indicators): check. "Propagandize everyone else with heavy does of xenophobic nationalism": check, check, check.
Anyone who can't see the similarity between Putin's modus operandi and Trump is choosing not to look.
4
Even if Putin falls, what will come after? Putin has filled the ranks and offices with corrupt sycophants, who will serve and protect any despot emerging after.
I think what trump is hiding is russian co-signers on his loans.. Putin and the trump family love russia, because russia gives them money..How are we going to disentangle that mess, in the face of Pelosi knee-shakes, and fox news and republicans lining up for their kickback money, like op3ening the tsongass to drilling, or the tax cuts on the wealthy..It is all going one way these days..
3
Who knows what replaces Putin.
As we see here in the United States on a daily basis, things can always get worse.
1
Putin is a ruthless KGB killer who knows how to keep his mouth shut, and although reportedly one of the world’s richest men seems little given to the kind of “bling” Trump thrives on. Except for his penchant for showing off his physical prowess, preferably shirtless, he seems, unlike our president, able to keep his narcissism under wraps. Both men do share deep insecurities - Trump’s seem largely attributable to “daddy issues” and Putin’s to the trauma of feeling abandoned by Moscow in Dresden in 1989, in the weeks after the fall of the Berlin Wall. However, perhaps the main thing these two men, so devoid of empathy for their fellow beings, do have in common , is an unshakeable belief that they are “chosen ones” -Putin to return Russia to its former Soviet Union hegemony, and Trump to establish an all powerful, white plutocracy with the Trump dynasty on top. I don’t believe we’ve yet seen the half of what these men and their cohorts are capable of inflicting on the world and it scares me to death.
3
“That formula — enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism...”
Trump’s playbook, exactly.
Which is why Putin stole the US election to put Trump in office. (With no small help from the Clinton’s ego and arrogance).
2
Man can do no Wrong. No one, in their own mind, does anything wrong. Even those who shoot up a school, massacres innocents at My Lai, guards at a death camp does so thinking what they're doing is Right. Only from the outside do we witness Wrong. It is in the eye of the beholder.
That's why dictators never give up.....they either die or are overthrown. Putin has no doubt that what he is doing is Right, not Wrong.
1
I can't decide whether Trump admires Putin or is afraid of him.
2
I’m really, really sure that Trump has “his” CIA working overtime to “meddle” in Russia’s election. I’m equally positive the Birmingham will recover from Dorian’s visit.
1
When I read some of the comments here and listen to the comments of some elected Democrats, the Democrats should write a clause in their 2020 platform that promises a declaration of war against Russia and Putin.
Freedom for Russians. Democracy for Russia.
1
I fervently hope Lyubov Sobol succeeds where so many before her have failed and died in the effort to topple Russia’s malign and corrupt dictator (and not coincidentally, Trump’s idol). Let’s hope she doesn’t choose to dine at the Putin Bistro anytime soon, the source of so many unfortunate and unexplainable problems with tainted food.
5
Looks like Trump has co-opted, corrupted, calumniated (no clue what that word means!), cow and coerced even NOAA now. I just this minute sent an email to a friend whose entire family was killed in the Holocaust. She had mentioned in her email to me that her father died in a POW camp in Siberia. I responded by expressing head-shaking lack of understanding as to how these sociopathic, crazy, narcissistic, cruel madmen and megalomaniacs, of which Trump is one, manage to get so many seemingly average people to prop them up, as has happened periodically throughout human history. Scarier still is that, one of the elements that these awful men project which seems to be a key to their getting that support is in fact their dehumanizing certain groups of people and presenting them as threats to the welfare of their bases, that their bases actually cheer their cruelty and convince themselves that this is the one person who "gets it" and will protect them from "those people". I learned years ago to not blame the megalomaniacal madmen because they are sick people, deranged. instead, It is the people who turn a blind eye and dear ear to the overt craziness and instead choose to hear only that which they want to hear and therefore prop up such sick men. We have this with Trump. Look at all his base has excused. It's a mountain now of sociopathy, yet they continue. This is how madmen are given the power to destroy. Blame the enablers.
3
Most people who read this column understand that if American voters don't wake up to the abuses of the US administration, the US could turn out like Russia and China. Most people assume that the Constitution will save us from authoritarianism. Well, the Constitution doesn't do much when the Supreme Court, Senate, and Justice Department are lapdogs for the dictator. Unfortunately, the people who really need this column have already turned on Faux News for the day. They don't read, except their extreme right-wing Facebook and Twitter feeds that tell them how horrible life would be if HRC had been elected.
2
Don't for a moment think Putin would not go after her children.
It takes no bravery to sit in New York and critique Putin. Bret however embraces Israel’s Putin, Netanyahu, and the policies of America’s, trump.
2
@Rhporter What opposition leader/journalist is Netanyahu having killed?
1
Where is your countries demonstrations about Trump's cronyism and corruption?
1
I'll give Putin 5 more years before Russians turn against him and he's exiled or torn apart
1
“That formula — enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism...”
Wait - what country are we talking about again?
3
Unbelievable courage. She may indeed be killed. But it won't be in vain.
2
Putin is counting on various combinations of Trump, McConnell, Kushner, Graham, Barr, Rubio and the NRA to do his bidding. They are all “For Sale” and Putin will meet their price .
3
Bookended with Michelle Goldberg s column yesterday about the fall of the Republican Party, this is the kind of good news I enjoy reading
1
We should all continue to stand with Navalny—provided, of course, that he doesn’t disgrace the movement by engaging in insect related put-downs
Is Stephens rooting for a politician to be murdered? Is he trying to bait the Russian government into killing her? Is this secretly, perversely, his desire? This is the impression I come away with.
1
Putin is a Russian Macbeth. He's in too deep to stop. The question is: what happens when he (eventually) shuffles off?
''A dictator meets an opponent he can’t co-opt, corrupt, calumniate, cow or coerce.''
She has a child.
I don’t believe Putin will ever lose power from within. He effectively removes any opposition ruthlessly. Lubov will be no different. Unfortunately, it will take international pressure to get change in Russia. With his friend Trump as President of the USA, the pressure is off.
3
Putin and Lavrov used diplomacy and defensive military tools as they should be used to stop a war.
Because of their efforts, the people of Syria get a break from the U.S. Neocons trying to barrel their way over yet another middle east country.
What they did in Syria is what I always hope my country (the U.S.) would be doing in the world, but the U.S. is always making the wars instead.
1
Please let Ms Sobol remain upright and breathing.
6
Putin ends with pitchforks and torches. Just like 1917.
3
Nobody is going to knock off Putin. He is the Czar of Rossiya until he dies. Like Mugabe who ran his country into the ground, Putin will live lavishly along with his entourage of fellow degenerates even if oil prices fell to zero!
7
Vladimir Putin should be in discussions right now with his family and, if any, trusted friends.
They should be making arragements with any country that will take them, protect them, and will fight their extradition. Putin also needs to hope that he is not sold out.
He will need trunks full of money. Only US currency will do since the Russian ruble is in the toilet.
If Putin remains in Russia I believe there may be an end to him not unlike Mussolini's or Quadaffi.
Putin should be watching every official in his government and asking--"Can I trust him/her?".
Vladimir Putin, murderer by remote control, should wonder who controls the joystick now.
1
It’s sad that the Republican base thinks a Russian type system with a strongman is the ideal system.
6
This article is one more example for fact that only very few American politicians, intellectuals or journalists know how to deal fairly or intelligently with Russia, with its history, its traumata and last but not least with its potential for democratic development. Even the romantization of Alexei Navalny, in some aspects a right wing man, is used to defame Putin. One exception is Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer whose works „ Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s fault“ or „Liberal Dreams and International Realities“ I therefore wholeheartedly recommend to the readers of Bret Stephen's column.
5
"enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism"
Wait... is this about Putin, or Trump? It sure sounds like Trump's mantra. Well, Trump has never been original in anything, so why not model himself after a real autocrat, and not just indulge in the fantasy of the autocrat he would love to be?
6
Good column until it closes with a quote from Pericles, the tyrant in democratic clothing who crushed Athens' allies under his heel and scared the rest of Greece into organizing to destroy his city and its golden age. When you strip away his false glory, he is perhaps more like Putin than unlike him.
1
@Charles B Z
I believe the quote is not from Pericles. It's from Thucydides. "The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it."
Putin must be delighted that Trump supports his corrupt, authoritarian regime. Meanwhile, the morally bankrupt Republican party tolerates this affront to democracy and common decency. The Russan people are paying a steep price for tax cuts for the rich and stuffing the federal courts with incompetent, right wing judges. History will not be kind to this administration and its enablers.
4
The question of why Donald Trump is Putin's Puppet and exactly what it is that Putin has over Donald Trump is becoming clear.
Putin's Russia is a classic criminal kleptocracy, and as such needs money launderers to shift rubles to dollars. Thus Trump's “miraculous” recovery from six bankruptcies. As Eric Trump told us, Russian money was the only money the Trump's used after their credit turned toxic to every regular bank.
None other than Donald Trump Jr. has admitted to the preponderance of Russian cash, claiming in 2008 that Russian investments were “pouring in” to Trump’s business ventures. Trump World Tower, which opened in 2001, was a “prominent depository” of Russian money, Bloomberg Businessweek reported.
Add in doing business with the Putin controlled sanctioned bank VTB in 2017, which agreed to finance the Trump Moscow tower, and the Trump efforts to eliminate all Russian sanctions and you have a multi billion $$$ motive by someone who never expected to actually become president.
Putin has the record of every rubble that Trump not only laundered, but also starched and ironed with Deutsche Bank.
8
Mr. Stevens description of Putin almost sounds like the wannabe dictator currently occupying the Oval Office, "That formula — enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism-" No wonder they're such great pals. Birds of the same feather..
1
China gave us two giant panda bears, Ling-Ling (1969–92) and Hsing-Hsing (1970–99). Russia gave us President Trump, according to recent comments by former President Jimmy Carter.
3
Hats off to Ms Sobol, a courageous woman ready and willing to face the repressive apparatus mounted by coward Putin, another Trumpian thug trampling on his own people, and abusing his power to perpetuate himself as a criminal despot 'a la prince Salman', and interfering in the internal affairs of other countries (witness the U.S.A.) as a distraction, suggesting to ordinary Russians that all Putin is doing is defending their interests (fat chance). Similar to Xi's China, human rights in Russia are just an afterthought, as Putin's klepto-plutocracy will fight 'tooth and nail' to keep it's odious privileges. Too bad Trump seems just fine in supporting the tyrants of this world, as he identifies with them wholeheartily...and even envious of their power. If you think these United States are immune to this kind of abuse, think again, as republicans are selling their souls.
4
“Iron Felix”, Putin’s Patron Saint said it well in July 1918: "We stand for organized terror - this should be frankly admitted. Terror is an absolute necessity during times of revolution. Our aim is to fight against the enemies of the Soviet Government and of the new order of life. We judge quickly. In most cases only a day passes between the apprehension of the criminal and his sentence. When confronted with evidence criminals in almost every case confess; and what argument can have greater weight than a criminal's own confession." - Felix Dzerzhinsky
I grew up in an Old left Household and was well aware of that enormous Russian sacrifices helped to keep me, my family and others like us out of Auschwitz-on-the Ohio. So for me the Russians were heroes.
That is, until I saw the USSR up close for 5 weeks in 1965 --- taking into account all of the devastation from which they were still rebuilding, it was pretty clear that the "worker's paradise" was at best a sham, at worst a pernicious lie.
Events since then have not altered my understanding --- they have merely exchanged the criminal rule of a corrupt party with the criminal rule of real criminals -- many of whom came to their powers through that very party --- Putin being the poster child for that move.
The long dreary arc of Russian history seems to be endlessly repeating itself; brief periods of disorganization and rebellion punctuating longer periods of autocratic repression, grinding poverty for the masses and gaudy displays of power by a small "elite", universal corruption and more or less political violence, including murder wihether individual (as today) or en masse (as in the gulag). It looks like the main activity dear to Russians be that of making themselves and all around them miserable.
7
"Only a law forbidding the imprisonment of women with young children has kept her out of jail."
So even the Russians have less draconian imprisonment customs than we do.
4
“I am a fanatical kind of personality and am not afraid. I have always been a fan of the idea of fairness and, since childhood, have hated to see the strong abuse the weak.”
How scary is it, then, that the Trump base and GOP appear to hate the idea of fairness and love seeing the "strong" abuse the weak, including children?
I read this column with horror because philosophically, it describes Trump (sans the actual murders and attempts at murder). Didn't we hear Cohen say that Trump doesn't need to give direct orders (to harm people who are a threat to him or what he wants) but has a "code" he uses? We know Trump has had his "fixer" verbally threaten people; send letters to organizations, including Trump's alma maters, threatening them if they release unflattering information about Trump; get the National Enquirer to engage in a catch-and-kill Trump protection racket; and now, after his own vicious rage against the FBI for investigating an attack on our democracy, while protecting Putin (see: Brett Stephens's column today), has sic'd his corrupt AG on them to further torment and hurt them, as well his backers organizing to target journalists, not with death but with reputation assassinations, including those of their family members. These are sick people, but blame those who support it.
5
The main question for Americans is not when, why, how, or where Vladimir Putin will fall. Our main question should be why is an American President and his political party so engaged in protecting Putin? Why has the American President threatened to abandon our allies while Mr. Putin threatens them? We should question why an American President, so entangled financially to Russian oligarchs (his own son, Eric, said it), refuses to show taxes returns which might confirm or deny suspicions. Where is the Republican Party? Where is their spine? They were outraged by a tan suit but can’t stand up to an out in the open friendship with dictators. America was always friends with dictators, but in the darkest hours of the day. I want to know why is the American President, his party, and his administration so engaged in protecting Putin?
5
Stephens is way too optimistic. Sure, on a good day a few tens of thousands of Moscow liberals will show up for a demonstration. But most Russians are apathetic, passively supportive of the Putin regime, and suspicious of any sort of liberalism. And the eiltes remain with no choice but to be loyal to Putin, and they have the resources - money, force, the media - to keep that regime in power another 20 years. And foreign adventures are still popular, as long as it is Ukrainians or Syrians who are dying.
60
@Mark Nuckols
You appear to be closer to it all than I am, obviously. I think that Russians might remain apathetic as you claim, but only until they realize how diminished their pocketbooks and wallets are. The groundswell against Putin, this 'tipping point' that Stephens is hoping for, might not come from youth at all, but from the millions of older Russians previously on the cusp of being middle class but are now no longer, and with no hope of ever getting there. The country is in trouble economically, and when the citizenry see it close at hand, Putin will be up against a lot more than a journalist or opposition politician (however brave).
7
Finally, an informative and excellent piece by Bret Stephens. I hope he turns his distaste for autocracy to examine our current despots-in-the-making before we see any jailing, poisoning, or murders.
3
Yesterday it was Iran. Today it is Russia.
You need not like Putin to realize that attacking everybody at once is a bad idea. It is especially bad when they've got important friends and the most nukes in the world.
Stephens follows a bad idea with a worse one.
No, I don't like Putin either. Still, overthrowing him is another thing entirely. And that is what Stephens is getting at here.
33
@Mark Thomason - Stephens is talking about an autocrat being overthrown by his own people, not through US intervention. Not everything revolves around the US.
49
@Anthony Flack how about overthrowing Donald Trump? How do we, the people, get to overthrow him? He did not win the election. It was decided by a group of "electors" we don't know anything about. His opponent won by more than 3 million votes and he is hated by the majority of the American people. So how do we "his own people" get the chance to overthrow him, because our 'electoral college' might keep him in power despite our vote.
25
@Michael Sorensen
It's called the ballot box. The problem is we are too pathetic to get off our duffs to go out and vote.
7
Mr. Stephens rightly salutes the brave souls that oppose Putin, but we should be careful what we wish for. There is simply no telling who or what will replace Putin if and when he is gone. Difficult and menacing as Russia is now, a new regime could well be unstable as well as more dangerous.
40
@George
Neocons can't think past the "overthrow/dethrone them!" rage. It's why the US military has helped destabilize so many countries in the mideast in past decades with no real replacement government forthcoming. Anyone with money can destroy; it is the rebuilding part that eludes so many. Be careful!
9
Sobol is a truly brave and inspiring woman. May she continue to protest and speak out on behalf of the disenfranchised in her homeland. The world, now more than ever, needs people with her courage.
281
@David Ahern She is definitely brave, but what is her program? What kind of reforms she envision and how these reforms will help common folks who are not interested in politics but want to better their economic situation?
5
What put up Putin is what will bring him down: the oil price on which the russian economy is dependent. A high oil price is what keeps the oligarchs happy, keeps the people in jobs and keeps the army funded.
It was a long period of depressed oil prices that brought the USSR down.
You want to get rid of oil-fuelled dictators like Putin, MBS...? Then you should push for alternative energy sources like wind, solar, hydro... to stop financing their regimes.
456
That is what Russian opposition was telling all the time. Of course, it was bellied up when the oil price went down as the Russian economy but Putin's rating did not. And to all fairness, the high oil prices were only in second half of 70s and beginning of 80s, all other time oil prices were low, and yet it didn't cause the USSR to collapse.
3
@yulia, really? What was it like in early 2016 when oil prices went down into the 30s? People were openly questioning whether Saudi Arabia would be able to fund itself and the Russian economy tanked.
11
@SJP
Wind, solar, and hydro are all environmentally destructive.
Wind and solar industrialize vast quantities of land, and hydro destroys free flowing rivers.
Someone’s will have to clean all that up someday.
1
Interesting that as much as the press likes to report on the polling numbers here to establish a politician's popularity, there is no mention of any polling results in Russia on Putin's popularity.
Currently we have President that has a job approval rating of about 40% while Russia has a President with a job approval rating of about 65%.
Yet it's Russia, according to this article, that's on the verge of a revolution. As for Trump, he's still the betting odds on favorite for reelection.
The lesson being we are not any position to dictate when it comes to dictators.
4
Boris Yeltsin was the only kind of leader the US could tolerate--a puppet that they could manipulate. War with Russia now being the objective, a rationale will be provided by the American media, cheerleaders for World War Three.
Every human being has a use-by mortality date.
And we can't take any of our stuff nor power with us.
Death is the ultimate humble humane empathetic fair moral wise judgment of life, history and the universe.
When' a dictator meets an opponent he can't co-opt, calumniate, cow or coerce' he sends them to a mental institution, a hospital, a prison, an urn or a coffin with a smile and smirk.
"Cemeteries are full of indispensable men" Charles De Gaulle's response when told that he was an indispensable man.
9
So Mr. Stephens please send the quote to all the republicans in congress. "knows the meaning of what is sweet in life and what is terrible, and then goes undeterred to meet what is to come" . Maybe you will stir a few soles into action. One can hope!!
4
@oscar jr
“maybe stir some soles . . “
Soles, perhaps but the Republicans have no souls to stir so forget about that.
1
Just imagine how nice it would be if there were more people with this kind of courage within the Republican party.
28
@Emeritus Bean
Just imagine who’d be president if some Democrats prior to the 2016 election said it wasn’t her turn.
1
No. Putin falls the same way the Soviet Union falls, the same way every evil falls. He overreaches, and the people stand up—surprising everybody because they believe the ridiculous “great man” view of history. That’s how Mubarak fell. That’s how corporate plutocracy will fall.
4
Why do you think Putin put Donnie in office?
He is the failsafe, like starting a Persian war that sends oil prices through roof rescuing Russian coffers, or sitting out another Russian invasion of. European, or NATO member state...
3
I just read the book “RED NOTICE” and it is a fascinating and true story of Russia, the Oligarchs and Putin.
My takeaway is that Putin is going no where soon and these Protest Leaders will meet a unfortunate end.
4
“enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism”
Sounds like you’re describing the neoliberal playbook. We can see the US adopt these tactics over the last several decades and now overtly so with Trump.
1
Communism collapsed in Russia due to a 10 year period of economic stagnation( 1970s)....followed by 9 years of significant economic decline.(1980s).
Putin's 'Crimea' effect has worn off..... and the economy has been stagnant since 2014.
That is why his popularity is eroding......that's the real threat.
Or am I missing something here?
2
Communism collapsed because of the bad policies of Gorbachev, who wanted to impose free market on monopolistic economy, and at same time change political system, all that without much of support.
What an uplifting piece. Putin could indeed succumb to the sound of 10,000 “Sirens” (beautiful young mothers speaking up all over Russia). Just need 9,999 Sobols all around Russia to join her in unison.
1
Never forget, Mr. Stephens, your tepid opposition in 2016 to Trump, the ultimate Putin-enabler.
You and Brooks and Douthat all said you couldn't vote for Trump, but then wrote column after column about how his message made sense to a lot of Americans. What message? Racism? Coddling of dictators? Hostility towards women? Lies about bringing coal country back and car manufacturing to the U.S.?
I am less concerned with the Trump zealots than I am with folks like you who fail to understand the real harm you have done with your equivocation.
26
What an impressive woman. We could use her here in the US. Turning to the US for a moment, what’s deeply troubling is that the current occupant of the WH stands arm-in-arm with Putin, not Sobol, and we know full well that Trump admires and envies Putin for his murderous responses to those who oppose him.
5
Russians know their leader
Do we know ours
Does China
Does India
The only change is the scale and type of technology
Our first technology was a rock
Fear is innate
2
Bret, please continue to follow up on Ms. Sobol, thanks.
1
It is somewhat reassuring (at least in a Schadenfreude sense of that word) to see that conservatives like Stephens can be just as delusional as liberals. Putin so far has only resorted to a "retail" level of killing. There's nothing in the man's character or Russia's past that holds him to that fairly low level of murder. If the opposition seems to be advancing and if Putin sees a credible threat to his continuing in power for the rest of his life, ratcheting up the violence to a wholesale level of slaughter is certainly more likely than going gently into whatever retirement might await a tyrannical thug. Bravery and courage are wonderful things but not sufficient in light of unlimited numbers of bullets and Kalashnikovs.
4
Putin not only rules Russia, he now also has a frightening measure of control over America through the president he installed there. If America has no way to eliminate the Putin threat, the citizens of Russia sure won't be able to.
2
The very scary thing about this article is that you could replace Putin with trump in most of it. I not think he has murdered or imprisoned anybody yet, but his rhetoric suggests he would like to.give it a few years and you can re-publish the article.
That is unless, we act when it comes to the election, or congress gets the moral strength to act before then.
2
Putin's investment in helping to elect Trump has paid off bigly. Who thinks now he won't do what he can to keep reaping dividends from "four more years?" In other news, Moscow Mitch, who knows all this, sabotages efforts to secure our elections.
4
He is not a dictator. His approval ratings in Russia have been consistently higher than Obama's in the US and you did not call Obama a dictator did you?
Stop using "dictator" as short hand for "does not agree with US policies".
Putin may no longer be good for Russia. Perhaps his time is past.
But using the term "dictator" in a cavalier way is often a prelude to interference BY the US in another country's internal affairs.
6
The best comment here. Thank you. Every world leader who does not do the bidding of the US government inevitably becomes a dangerous “dictator” or whatever. It’s time we minded our own business and focused on our many, many pressing domestic problems.
3
@Ludwig A dictator is just someone total power over a country. Seems to fit, whether people like him or not.
2
@Ludwig I'm sure Brezhnev, Stalin, etc. got 99% of the vote. Same for Kim Jong-un. And not to forget him, the one everybody most loves to hate. Wonder why that is?
3
Thanks for publicizing Lyubov Sobol's courage. It's sad, but it's the only thing we can do now to protect her, and others like her.
Thanks also for publishing the techniques of control and repression; it gives people a chance to avoid them.
Oh for the days when the U.S. stood up to thugs over freedom!
What really destroys our standing in China, Russia, and other oppressive countries, is when we fail to live up to our own standards. If we set a good example, it's impossible for them to argue with.
2
What does Putin have to worry about? He has the most powerful nation in all of human history cheering him on, advocating for his readmission to the G-8 as an honored member of the elite club of democracies.
Trump and the entire Republican Party welcome his subversion of democracy throughout the West. Moscow Mitch won’t lift a finger to stop Putin from infiltrating our electoral process.
Trump loathes democracy and revels in oligarchic autocracy. Republicans have essentially made Trump a God-King. Putin has nothing to fear.
6
In Russia Police and Military is totally corrupted and filled with former communist apparatchiks at the top and the middle. Younger recruits never seen anything else. Changing the top head will not be sufficient to change the system, the core remains the same. I think that because of that deep systemic corruption, Russia will transit from one dictatorship to another for the next decade or two. There is just too much of entrenched resistance from within, all profiting from the corrupt way of governing. That is the real “deep state”.
1
"unlike Ness, she has no knife, no gun, no badge, no law, and no federal government to aid her."
Is this the best analogy, though? Americans repealed Alcohol Prohibition not long after putting Capone behind bars. And Elliott Ness wound up running a bar.
The corruption and repression are indeed awful in Russia, as in North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the Philippines and elsewhere.
And nearly every week “our” “President” lavishes praise upon one or another of the dictators, while attacking our democratic alliances, our own intelligence agencies, and the free press.
This is NOT normal, NOT acceptable, NOT American.
2
The United States neither can nor should have much effect on the internal politics of another nation. But it will be our eternal shame that the country that used to be democracy’s great champion fawns over Putin and gives tacit support to his repressive and corruption regime.
1
Putin, et al, is unsustainable.
So is Trump. Their corruption interferes with honest market forces and deprives societies of Progress.
Progress is the path that everyone on Earth seeks. We want to live healthier, in homes that will not kill our kids from lead paint exposure or tainted water, work at a decent job that sustains our society with adequate wages, and offers our families a secure and positive future.
Progress over the past 150 years has helped many of us but should have benefitted many more of us. I blame the lack of wide distribution of Progress on the corruptive forces of which Putin, Trump, and their models of pay-to-play regressive governance, are the current iteration.
Putin, like Trump, cannot hold on to their unworkable model. There are too many people, and young ones too, who see more possibilities for their lives through the global lens of the internet. The tipping point is rapidly coming into focus.
The best way to provide a peaceable transfer from old-school dictatorship to a new world order of Progress and sustainability is to get rid of Trump. A vote to dump Trump will demonstrate our commitment to our sustainably directed and widely distributed new future of Progress.
It is a pathway we must take if we are to have a future to be proud of. Our success will make the collapse of Putin/Trump style
bully dictatorships an inevitability, and the sooner the better...
73
@Leslie Duval
Thank you for a clear sober review of what is a "progressive." You catch the essential humanitarianism embedded in the idea of progress, and any authoritarian, be it a Russian or a Chinese one, is antithetical to this ideal.
There really is no defense of Putin that can turn him into a progressive force in the Russian project.
What I struggle to understand is the American leftists, or are they rightists, who apologize for Mr. Putin, and vilify the likes of Sobol and other journalists, as being right wing lackeys of a secret neo-NAZI cult that seeks to bring back the Third Reich, or some awful smear of this sort.
I see the Russian opposition to Putin that march in the streets in full view of the cameras as humanitarian progressives...these people are the future of Russia, not the rich oligarchs.
6
Sorry, but this piece which is critical of Putin is weakened by the fact that Stephens refuses to say he would vote for ANY Democrat against Trump. How serious is he really about being against tyranny?
14
He is a Republican who do you think he is going to vote for?
Putin's regime is very safe so long as he can employ Germany's ex-chancellor, Germans continue making strategic energy deals with his regime being their allies backs, England allows his oligarchs to buy soccer clubs and expensive London properties and Austria allows them to buy hotels in the Alps. So long as he is invited to G7 by the US President before he gives anything in return he has nothing to fear at home. Corruption of western governments is perhaps the mail reasons why Putin survived in power so long. Unless he and his clique are properly isolated by the united West, he will remain in power. With the current attitude attitude West is complicit in what Putin does to his opponents.
4
You fail to mention the properties in Beverly Hills, Miami, The Plaza in NYC, and the Florida and Nevada bank accounts...
Let us see - keeping opponents from running for election -"Republican parties in South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Kansas are expected to finalize the cancellations in meetings this weekend, according to three GOP officials who are familiar with the plans." - check
Use the power of the State to harass critics : "Justice Dept. Investigates California Emissions Pact That Embarrassed Trump" -check
Control the news feed to support the government (i.e. dictator) position, - NOAA supports Alabama story, fox all the time Check.
Seems like we are entering Russia on the Potomac.
18
It is interesting how systems and dictatorships fall. I’ve watched - and participated in my own way - with a number in my adult life. I think in part because my childhood was during the civil rights movement which was legally, though with much bloodshed, dismantled as I grew into a woman. Once you get the bug, it is hard to get over it. But even harder is looking over the wasteland of our democracy. I think it can be saved, because those who fight for a rule of law that embraces equity and freedom are essentially optimists. I look back at how the Nixon Administration unraveled and it gives me hope. But I’m also not sure the Executive cracks can be repaired.
5
"Putin has so many underworld friends willing to do his presumptive bidding without asking for explicit orders." Sounds historically and dramatically familiar, doesn't it?
Recall: "Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?," said to have been spoken by Henry II with regard to Thomas Becket, whom he saw as a nemesis. Substitute Putin for Henry and Lyubov Sobol, or any number of murdered Putin opponents, for Beckett and you have a historical parallel.
"Henry was an energetic and sometimes ruthless ruler, driven by a desire to restore the lands and privileges of his grandfather Henry I." (Wikipedia) Again, substitute Putin for Henry and the Soviet Union for Henry's grandfather's lands and you have another uneasy parallel.
Of course many more contemporary parallels or comparisons can be found; this one, though, rings loud with drama down through the ages.
Recall as well how Henry II's reign ended. He died exhausted from a fruitless war of expansion and against treachery from within, against his own sons and their allies. Also sound familiar? For Putin, too, may it not end well.
6
He can kill her, though. Just ask Anna Politkovskaya.
4
When Putin falls, he will be replaced by another dictator.
We need to dispense with the fairy tale that good always wins in the end. Sometimes it does, often it doesn't. It's a crappy reality ... but reality is crappy.
12
I get tired of people bashing lawyers when so many are remarkably motivated by justice. Putin should fear such clarity of vision and passion for law’s potential.
4
In Russia, in Zimbabwe and yes, even in America, those of faint heart who believe in freedom and democracy can still, privately, change the course of history. By voting (provided there's no illegality involved).
4
Ms. Sobol is an attractive young dissenter whose life is in serious jeopardy. Putin is far stronger than Trump and has no qualms about disposing of trouble makers. How long before she dies?
Clearly, the world is not ready to step past strong men. Putin is one and Trumps wants to be. We can elect our way out of Trump but the Russians have a far more difficult fight before them.
18
@Steve:Vladimir Putin is the best friend Jews of RUSSIA have at the moment, and given latent anti semitic currents in Russia ,better to deal with the devil who is there than make an existential leap into the unknown, and see anti semitism become more virulent. Does Stephens speak Russian so whence his expertise?Ms. Sobol is to be commended for her physical courage, but if u end up dead, what good will you be to the movement for democratic change?Better work for change from within the government rather than openly confront a powerful autocrat. Author's should know better. Have a biological son who graduated from Ramaz, speaks fluent Hebrew and keeps me abreast of the thinking within "Our Crowd," a reference to Stephen Birmingham's great history of the well to do!Author would do better to focus on anti semitism in France, where Jewish cemeteries, places of worship, schools r guarded around the clock. No one speaks in France anymore about threat posed by Lepenistes, followers of JM Le Pen and daughter Marine to French Jews. Threat comes from a very small minority of Mahgrebins,sons, grandsons of Francais Musulmans, embittered by France's refusal to protect them at the conclusion of the Algerian war in 1962, when FLN embarked on a large scale "reglement de comptes" with those who had fought under the tricolor during the war and it is estimated that grosso modo 150,000 members of pro French harka were killed in often a grisly fashion. Thank De Gaulle for THAT genocide.
@Steve Trump would be exactly like Putin if he could get away with and the republican party wouldn't even blink. Look at what's going on with the DOJ targeting automakers for not complying with the president's rules. Look at this ridiculous story about Trump and the Alabama weather bureau and his falsifying a weather map. This next election is going to be the most important one in my 65 year life.
3
@scott k.
At least Trump is an incompetent in most things he does. He is an expert con-man, however.
It’s a shame, given that you seem to believe conditions are ripe for the fall of a tyrant in Russia, that the core of the ruling conservative political party, the GOP, have lost their way on Russia and will not stand up to the president, who seems determined to coddle an autocrat. Certainly there’s lots to speculate about regarding the president’s motives but the failure of the Republican Party and conservatism generally to deal with this appropriately is mystifying. And it’s especially strange, given how much hay conservatives used to make over perceived liberal softness on foreign policy, that conservatives have stood by, largely silent, as our foreign policy has been rolled back to accommodate Russia far more than Obama, long decried from the right as feckless on Russia, ever did.
8
We should spend more time analyzing what happens after dictatorships fall. It's often worse. Russia did very badly in the 90s after the collapse of the USSR.
Sometimes, it's better. Examples include South Korea, Taiwan, Chile, Spain, and Portugal. What these countries have in common is that the dictatorships in these countries fell during a time of rising prosperity and no geopolitical threats. This tells me that our method of impoverishing and threatening authoritarian countries is the exact opposite of what we should be doing if we want to promote not just the collapse of authoritarianism, but the possibility of something good arising in its stead.
14
The end of Putin and after Putin in Russia?
I don't see much of a significant end to Putin because Putin is just a name for a political/economic system which is developing and appears under many names today (leaders of nations from the U.S., across Europe, to the Middle East, to China). Virtually every powerful political/economic entity in the world today sees itself in a state of fragmentation, with encroaching chaos, that differences within itself amount to conflict, and that unity, order must be devised. You want maximum profit from the simplest ideas and most easily produced products whether in the economic or political world.
The world rushes toward standardization today, and what's most liked whether in product or person is elevated and replicated in society, achieves monopoly, is order against chaos, is the right over the wrong, is the loved, aesthetic, taste. It's humanity under technological, manufacturing lines of thought; we run off models of Gates, Bezos, Trumps, Obamas, Bushes, Putins, leaders business and political across the world, and they dictate the operational, reliable, optimal model of the human.
You can't really overcome, revolt, replace leaders in the most powerful political/economic entities today because it's a manufacturing system which endlessly reproduces a run of themselves, and this system despises competition, quantum type multiple world humanity, complexity, not to mention the idea that a person can escape to being made by own self.
5
Ms. Sobel is so beautiful and brave. May God protect her.
10
I liked the last line. Very good.
12
It is inspiring to learn of all the brave young people who stand against Putin.
However, the two crucial items for a successful uprising are missing.
(1) a collapsing of the economy, as it must do at some time.
(2) a backing off by the West, to avoid driving Russians to support the regime as the main bulwark against Western aggression.
Macho posturing by the US doesn't help. Indeed, it hurts. Magnitsky sanctions and international ostracism are pinpricks, and breed a sense of being threatened, a sense which you mischaracterize as xenophobic nationalism.
The Democrats' Russophobic campaign of three years' standing likewise sustains the regime.
Concern about the expansion of NATO to the Russian border is the main factor in making the regime look useful. Western PR describes suspicions of the alliance as irrational, that NATO is defensive, and an institution for sustaining east European democracy and nation building.
This is a "trust us" statement. Should the trust not be justified, NATO the military force is a power unmatched on earth, and one to be taken very seriously.
Look at the process that made for the collapse of Communism.
First, the Soviet economy ran into the inevitable wall of over-centralization, as could be predicted twenty years before.
Then Reagan, of all people, befriended the Russian liberalization. From there, the regime and people embraced reform and cooperation with foreign states.
May we rediscover such helpful policy.
2
Bret, a western minded person, confuses wishful thinking with reality. For each brave soul (dead or alive) there are millions of Russians complicit in elevating and supporting a “strong arm” rule because this is collective wisdom on the only way to maintain law and order. It is Russian culture at its worst and is not likely to change.
12
The natural law of human nature is that the strong get rich, the rich get powerful and the powerful get rich in an unending cycle. Sometime in the 16th century or so, the "little" people started an uphill Sisyphean task of wresting power from the rich for the people. We rebelled, France and Russia killed the "aristocracy" and Britain neutered theirs. But the fight goes on. Russia has found a new Aristocracy" composed of their "Oligarchs" and so power is now in the safe hands of the rich. We also have had a similar return to the "natural" law of power and wealth. The middle ages saw the power of the Church and the Aristocracy plunder the humanity of the underclass and keep their fealty through religion. Now they keep that fealty through both religion and consumer goods and brand loyalty, while they give meager tax breaks which seem sufficient payoff. Hong Kong and Russian protests might be the last symbolic fingers keeping us from falling over the cliff of a new medieval order.
10
The durability of Robert Mugabe who died of natural causes at the age of 95 and led his country into a pit over 4 decades is the cautionary note to Bret Stephens' analysis. I for one would jump for joy if Putin and his clique of Russian Mafioso were driven out of power and a truly free and democratic Russia emerged. But I think of two deep countervailing forces:
1. Russian authoritarianism is older than the Magna Carta. It is in fact as old as Russian civilization. Slavery was an institution for many centuries until it was replaced by serfdom which was only abolished in 1861. If there were 3 million slaves in the Confederacy, there were 16 million serfs in the Russian empire. The end of this feudal practice did not liberate the Russians. They remained under the rule of the Czars who were ruthless in repressing the popular will. The Russian Revolution did not lead to democracy but 75 years of totalitarian rule. Post Soviet Russia then rests on a thousand years of brutality. The fact that Putin has been killing his opponents fits perfectly into Russian history. Western democracy would be something very new and very courageous.
2. Political scientists studying African dictators concluded that the longer they remained in power the longer they were likely to stay so. This is because they all built extensive patronage systems that supported their rules. Putin, like Mugabe, Maduro, Fidel Castro and any number of others has his patronage system. How to break it?
39
So far our institutions in this country are holding up against or mini-Putin in the White House--who, without those institutions is perfectly capable of all the awful practices listed by Mr. Stephens.
14
@Amanda Jones
So far, is the scary acknowledgement of what we are dealing with when it comes to Trump. Trump will try to use the same tactics of dictators, and our Justice Department and Moscow Mitch will provide him assistance.
5
@Amanda Jones
From where I sit there are no Institutions holding up very well.
The DOJ, Department of Defense, HUD, Education, Commerce, Supreme Court, State Department, Health and Human Services, the EPA, even NOAA have been systemically weakened by the very people appointed to run them for the good of ALL the citizens.
Trump, the GOP, the Republicans in the Senate and the House, with the exception of Congressman Amash, are deliberately tearing down our Nation.
They all should be replaced with law abiding people committed to all of our Citizens and the running of Government in a non-corrupt manner.
We cannot afford to sit by and let the complete disintergration of our once great Country to devolve in to a Putin style Government.
No matter who is running, let us elect a man or woman who actually has only one overriding reason for running and that is the rebuilding of our once great Institutions.
4
This description of how Putin has managed to stay in power also applied to Trump. The only difference is that Trump is in Act One of an American tragedy and Putin is in Act Four of a Russian one.
38
@Walt Bruckner. Trump is planning to change that. And the sequel will be Trump Jr.
there's a reason trump and moscow mitch love this guy. They want what he has - an absolute grip on power. that so many americans vote for them scares me. that so many resist encourages me
262
Imagine how much more pressure would be placed on Putin if Trump joined the chorus of voices on the peoples' side. In Russia, in Hong Kong, in Iran, in Saudi Arabia. But, alas. there is no money to be made helping the masses. Only in helping the oligarchs. Of which Trump is one. You simply don't turn on your friends. No matter what they do. And Ms Sobol....should she seek to get out and save her and her childrens' lives....no asylum in the U.S.....I am surprised Trump has not turned over the Saudi cleric MBS wishes to eliminate. And why should Trump support democratic change? Moscow Mitch is completely on his side.
41
What Bret does not seem to be able to grasp is the reality of modern-day Russia, where the nationalists, communists, elites and the liberals are all fighting for power. The communists are doing well in Siberia and now have control of Novosibirsk, while the nationalists are gaining power in rural areas. The elites are well-connected, well-educated and well-to-do urban dwellers who are mostly employed by state-run corporations and who earn anywhere between 40,000 to 90,000 US dollars per year. These people are very loyal to Putin, but they make up only about 15 percent of the population. Sanctions have basically zero impact on them. And the liberals are by and large well-educated, but poorly-connected 30-somethings who work as teachers, sales people, low-level government employees, social works, doctors, care-takers and low-level office workers. They usually earn much less than 30,000 US dollars a year and see no way to move up in society. They make up about 45 percent of the population. But Putin’s base is strong and is not going anywhere, while the liberals are getting constantly hammered by one thing or another. And the elites might make common cause against the liberals with the nationalists if push comes to shove. So there's that, too.
26
Ms. Sobol is an inspiration. She represents hope for the human endeavor.
17
Our best bet is to lower the oil price. That will do more than anything else to shorten Putin's tenure.
23
@James Ribe
We need a carbon tax, and then with the help of Europe and China bring the rest of the world along as best we can. That would have the same effect on Russia, but with more beneficial effects on the planetary ecosystem.
6
@Thomas I don't think we accomplish anything by impoverishing ourselves. Putin's Russia threatens mankind. First things first.
@James Ribe
A carbon tax will not impoverish us. It will spur new technologies and the economic growth from them.
I am vacationing and just a couple of hours ago finished reading Jeffrey Archer's Heads, You Win and, I thought "what an amazing storyteller". It is frightening how fiction and reality intertwine. Happy to be in Barcelona and not Moscow.
However, in America, no storyteller can be as "good" as our presidential reality show, not even with a Sharpie. No writer can make that reality up.
22
Russia has the potential to be one of the greatest countries in the world. It has everything going for it: natural resources, land and incredibly talented people. But it's all being wasted by Putin, a petty 19th century dictator armed with nuclear weapons and Facebook. We (the West) have to do everything we can to support the brave young protestors in Russia (and Hong Kong). More news coverage is essential. Putin should feel like he's under a microscope.
111
@Nathan
Agree with you up to a point. Unfortunately, the majority of anti-putin protesters want democracy only within russia. Most of them if pressed support Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Georgia. Most are inherently still Russian chauvinists who want more middle class freedoms at home, but who simply see those as a better path for Russia to reach its dream of being seen by the west as a great power.
A far, far better solution than to support Russian protesters is to defend and guide Ukraine through its rebuilding. There, we have a generation of people who want nothing so much as to be a "normal" European country part of collective international organizations such as the EU and NATO. They want functioning courts and markets. In short, they want and are willing to work for everything that we spent trillions on trying to provide for various middle eastern countries that ultimately weren't ready or weren't interested.
Unfortunately, until the US gets a president who has an ounce of moral compass, neither option will happen. Ukraine could be the biggest foreign policy win of this century, providing america and the EU with a strategically placed military partner, plenty of natural resources, and a country ready to contribute economically for the good of the world just as soon as the infrastructure and stabiltiy are there.
35
So, supporting the Russian opposition via Facebook is great, but Russian's support for American candidate is bad?
1
How dare these Russians wish for the greatness of their country? How dare they wish security against the military might of the US? Everybody knows only the US should rule the World, and everybody who disagree is a dictator and a aggressor.
1
Bret Stephens has given a tentative view of what the future holds for Vladimir Putin.Yes,there is opposition to Putin today and it has been there for some time.In early years of Putin’s rule,direct methods were adopted & Putin got away with it.Russia was just coming out of Communist rule & such violence was much etched in the institutional memory of Russians.So reactions were muted.
The constant in post-Yeltsin Russia has been Vladimir Putin. After Stalin,Putin has been the longest ruler of Russia.The main ally of Putin was not his great administrative skills,but the rising oil prices.Oil sustained the whimsical,but strong rule of Putin.Putin used high oil revenues to placate Russian people.
But since 2014,the oil-dependent economy of Russia was not able to help Putin play a generous ruler.
Low oil prices in Russia weakened Putin’s hold.The economic recession generated anger against Putin.It also gave scope for the rise of democratic tendencies in Russia.
There is skepticism in Russia about where Putin will take them.The anti-Putin leaders are getting more support.Putin’s claim of being protector of Mother Russia seems less true. Increasingly, the public becomes jaded at the same theatrical scenes of Putin.All strong men eventually fade away.It was pointed out power for a tyrant will ensure longevity,citing Robert Mugabe who died at 95 years.
Enoch Powell said” All politics ends in failure”. Increasingly,the question is not how long Putin will rule,but how he will fade away.
10
It would be more convincing if we had poll numbers for other politicians than Putin. I am wondering these numbers almost never mentioned.
I have seen this movie before.
An autocrat worshipped by a corrupt clergy, the less educated and rural people who has tried to stifle a free press, denigrate the judicial system and prosecute his enemies.
Putin is just more successful than our autocrat but if ours is re-elected and Barr is still AG there is no guarantee of safety for any of us.
334
@Edward B. Blau
Yes , we have seen this film before... but during the transition period lots of good things may happen when the new car takes distance with the former’s excesses; end of Stalinism, de delegalisation of the Russian communist party etc. After Putin régime may want to put end the economically damaging wars, invasions and worldwide killings by secret services.
Tjernobyl nuclear disaster contributed to USSR fall was also
3
@Edward B. Blau
Yes , we have seen this film before... but during the transition period lots of good things may happen when the new car takes distance with the former’s excesses; end of Stalinism, delegalisation of the Russian communist party etc. The ‘After Putin régime ´ may want to put an end to the economically damaging wars, invasions and worldwide killings by secret services.
Tjernobyl nuclear disaster contributed to USSR’s fall.
And we have now similar but smaller scale disaster.
Recent nuclear accident with a missile with nuclear propulsion was a small scale atmospheric nuclear explosion (deduced from measured radioactive gases). Population was not protected or warned, nor did doctors treating injured military and thus got contaminated by the radioactive cesium 137.
3
@Edward B. Blau, it might as well be the 12th century.
3
I hope Stephens is right. But I fear Putin has such a grip on power that he will continue down his murderous path for a long time. Average Russians still love him. They buy his lies and distortions in state run media. The only way he leaves is by popular uprising. But I don’t see it yet.
8
It feels like the same playbook is unfolding here with the intimidation and bullying by the Trump Justice Dept of major automakers who are trying to comply with California's emission standards. Bullying congresswomen who speak out against the atrocities of ICE at our border, going after political opponents in his own party, on and on....this is not so different than Putin's strategy. And now, how about the collusion of the military in the graft of propping up Trump properties with military refueling stops at private airports. It is all too much. Who enforces the end of this????
60
@Lapis Ex
Can you explain the part about "The military in the graft of propping up Trump properties with military refueling stops at private airports?" This is the first I have heard of it.
1
Putin is surely a student of Russian history and is thus aware that when the regime (Tsarist, Soviet, kleptocratic - doesn't matter) makes enemies of women (babushkas!) it is facing an implacable and indefatigable foe. My feeling is that he doesn't have a clue what to do about it, as these women are stronger and more resilient than he could ever be or imagine.
13
I would hardly call Sobol babushka. Babushki is usually referred to much older women. But you are right Babushki could be strong, they rebelled in beginning 2000s against pension reform, forcing modifications of the law. The problem majority of Babushki supports Putin not Sobol.
Wishful thinking. Putin is demonstrably ruthless; that is what endears him to Mr. Indecency, who wishes that he could do the same thing to all of the Democrats in Congress. Nope, we're not going to see any major change over there for a while, and it will only come when enough people who have some power team up too get Putin. And I have no confidence that that bloodshed will improve matters.
13
This is the resistance we need now in the US, which is governed by a Putin puppet. Yes, we have reached this point.
99
I wish I shared your confidence that right will beat might.
But Putin rules with an iron fist, his power goes back decades, and while he may have few fans, he does make Russian people feel confident that he is keeping them safe and living in quality that a revolt against him seems unlikely.
Sure, someday Vladimir Putin will fall.
But I would bet on him ultimately succumbing to illness and frailty, not to democracy.
And if someone were to pull off a coup toppling Putin, they would probably be even more ruthless than he is.
6
Russia governs itself, but not democratically. They go from one opaque autocratic regime to another with brief interregna of faux democracy in between. Someone once observed that the only western idea that has never existed in Russia is liberalism.
6
“That formula — enrich your cronies, terrify your foes, placate the urban bourgeoisie with a decent standard of living, and propagandize everyone else with heavy doses of xenophobic nationalism — no longer works so well in an era of Magnitsky sanctions, international ostracism, a persistently stagnant economy, middling oil prices, unpopular pension reforms, and dubious foreign adventures.”
For a moment I thought Stephens was describing the USA under the Republican Party’s and Trumps leadership!
Phew what a relief!
34
@Platter puss
as terrible as Trump is, you insult the real people both in russia and its near abroad who suffer because of Putin's Russia. Maybe, just maybe next time avoid the low hanging fruit domestic political jibe and have some sympathy for those who really suffer.
1
One recent survey found that the number of young Russians who “fully trust” Putin fell to 19 percent this year, from 30 percent last year.
It's not all bad news for Putin.
On the upside, the number of old American Presidents still in office who fully trust Putin remains at 100% and the number of major American political parties willing to allow Putin to continue his attack on U.S. democracy and elections is holding steady at 50%.
Good news for Putin. Bad news for people like Sobol. And Americans.
The failure of the GOP to reign in Trump's fanboy coddling of the murdering dictator Putin and McConnell's treasonous refusal to defend our elections against attack from that same enemy of the United States is an unforgivable sin that will stain the party and their supporters long after Trump is gone.
If only "the courage of people like Sobol" wasn't extinct in the GOP to the point where fear of a nasty tweet is enough to keep them from truly and effectively speaking out against anti-democracy abominations like Trump and McConnell.
163
@LT What explains the GOP is not so much 'lack of courage', but a craving to be ruled by an autocrat.
9
@LT
I fully appreciate and agree with your assessment of the relationships between Trump and McConnell and Putin.
Putin is a thug, bent on destroying liberal democracies throughout the world and his murderous (literally, not figuratively) actions toward political opponents should disqualify him from a seat at a table with world leaders.
McConnell's refusal to safeguard our election process, his unwillingness to call out Russian interference in the 2016 election in the weeks prior to the vote, should disqualify him from American politics - either by his own party (I know, good luck with that) or by his constituents in the state of Kentucky.
But what dismays me is that it appears that 40% of the American people either do not understand or seem to care that the actions of Trump and McConnell are antithetical to everything that America is supposed to stand for as leaders of the free world.
I suspect that it is a case of ignorance, these so-called "patriots" that support Trump and Mc Connell do not understand that Putin literally kills his own countrymen to enrich himself and his cronies and will do anything to remain in power.
14
If you live during end of Cold war and collapse of USSR, you cannot believe at this moment what kind of ilk is in power .
Putin, Orban, Salvini, Erdogan, Netanyahu, etc. These political dictators belong to past but somehow they grab the power and wasted almost 20 years in nations history.
Like Putin and Erdogan some also plundered nations wealth entirely.
It is simply unbelievable what was the hope at the end of Cold war , and what is the expectations now ?
New generation cannot comprehend this but today world is in some aspect eerily horrifying .
21
That was a pretty accurate snapshot of Putin's Russia.
3
Putin is not unlike the infamous Tsar Nicholas. In fact, if one observed the opening ceremony of the Olympics in Russia not too long ago, s/he was left with little doubt that Putin wills his country to return to the days of autocratic wealth, power, and pageantry wedded to oppressive ruthlessness. This 21st Century dictator is by nature a thug and a killer with years of KGB experience. But as Bret points out his days may be numbered. Russians have not changed who they are. They are still capable of revolting if pushed too far, too much. Those ripples of profound discontent can only grow into waves. I hope he is defeated soon. But let’s not allow the state of affairs in Mother Russia distract us from our own troubles, the likes of which I have never experienced during my long life. Our nation, our democracy, is being threatened daily by a man who is also power-hungry, a delusional and narcissistic bully, who in his own way is inhumane and destructive. I do not have to write his name. We know of whom I speak.
33
I hope you are right that this brave woman and others like her can bring positive change to Russia but it's a tall mountain to climb. The whole Russian government apparatus is a ruthless and quite capable criminal enterprise with access to powerful tools of repression and absolutely no conscience.
5
Unfortunately I don't see how Putin can be put away near term, if at all. He is well entrenched, can fix elections at his pleasure, and murder his rivals with impunity. And he has an ally in Trump.
Putin I'm afraid will be antagonizing the world for many years to come. Remember, it literally took the USSR to collapse economically before change came about. And their a long way from that scenario.
7
When it is found how much of America has been bought with stolen money from Russia, who gets the money and properties? Will it be the US Government as fines and confiscations, or the Russians whose national treasure it was before it was stolen?
14
Great question.
1
Despite their heroism and courage, I don’t believe a lawyer or journalist will take down Putin. As Bret points out, he has plenty of goons and murderers around to take care of them. And he fears no international repercussions because he has generally survived sanctions by past U.S. presidents and knows the current president won’t do anything to him. And besides, ABS, Ertogan, Duterte, Kim Jung Un and other thug leaders have had their opponents killed, yet Trump seems to have no problem with that.
Putin is, essentially, like the boss of a crime syndicate. So I suspect his end, when it comes, will be when someone close turns on him and kills him. He will never give up power otherwise.
15
“Dictatorships fall not only when they have implacable opponents but also exemplary victims: Steve Biko in South Africa, Benigno Aquino in the Philippines, Jerzy Popieluszko in Poland. Through their deaths, they awakened the living to the conviction that it was the regime that should die instead.”
So true! Sometimes it’s all that’s required!
3
It is quite encouraging that so very few of the young Russians support Putin.
I hope this indicates that they are able to obtain news from the wider world, and be inspired by the resilience of the Hong Kong protesters.
Brave journalists play a critical role. Putin's whack-a-mole methods will NOT squash the determination of an informed Russian public.
Trump's encouragement and Moscow Mitch's deliberate blindness has emboldened Putin until the whole world can see the wolf under the sheep's clothing. Hopefully the US Congress will have the will to act.
14
Eventually, his own inner circle will decide that he can go and that they can stay. How quiet or obvious that is will depend on these interests.
7
Haven't we seen that in 2012? Well, the rumors about Putin's death were slightly exaggerated then, Are we sure they are not exaggerated now? Just because people do not trust Putin, doesn't mean that they trust pro-Western opposition much more. How many people trust Navalny? Sobol? Whom they trust more than Putin or next to Putin? I have seen a lot of reports about Putin losing popularity, but reports are much more murky who is gaining one. I suspect Communists are one who do, but again we are told not to believe the Russian polls, although somehow, when discuss falling Putin's popularity people tend to refer to the same polls. Funny how it works. Putin, of course, could fall, but not because of pro-democratic opposition, but rather because economists-recommended reforms, as pension one. Pro-democratic rallies are hardly a threat to him. Insisting to hold rallies in most crowded places, the opposition just annoys people, because they create inconvenience with little benefit to the general population. I doubt that whoever comes to power will lower the retirement age, because otherwise they will face a difficult choice of cutting pension amount, or cutting all other social services, or inducing inflation, or any combination of three. And"rocking Russia" is just artsy words for demonstrations in Moscow. Russia is a little bigger than Moscow, but even in Moscow Navalny got 27% votes vs 51% of Sobyanin.
9
Trump takes his clues from Putin and his face lights up with a smile and glow when Putin comes into his view. This is very dangerous as Putin is an adversary of the USA as much as North Korea is and ignoring bad moves by these two dictators puts the USA and it's allies in danger by encouraging such behavior. If Putin has compromising info on Trump or if Trump just thinks he does as it is likely Putin can count on Trump's support for his re-election as much a Trump is counting on Putin's help. McConnell is also compromised and Barr may be as well perhaps they will all meet at Trump's HOtel and make their plans for world domination with sharpies.
33
@REBCO
He is only an adversary in the context of the USA being a world-wide aggressor state. Settle into a fair and peaceable role in the world, in accordance with international justice, and the US will recover its historic role as moral and economic leader. Everyone is waiting, but time is running out.
5
Augustus,
Why would the US seek an alliance with a country that actively tried to affect their most recent Presidential election and is already working on throwing the next one to their agent, Trump?
21
@Rhoro - because Vladamir Putin, as we all know, is a man who is committed to fair and peaceable action in accordance to international justice.
That's why he's been so careful to annex territories, murder dissidents and shoot down passenger aircraft in a fair and peaceable manner. And he's such a firm believer in democracy, he's even willing to pitch in and help with foreign elections.
6
We may well end up with a situation in which Trump and his minions hack Russia's elections in order to secure a win for Vlad the Enabler.
14
@stu freeman - or we will learn that we have been doing that, all along. the world continues to unveil its strange partnerships
2
@stu freeman - I think Vlad has got the hacking of Russian elections covered well enough; why would he need American help with that?
1
"One recent survey found that the number of young Russians who 'fully trust' Putin fell to 19 percent this year" but fear not, he still has the support of Moscow Mitch, 100% of Republican lawmakers, 40% of (mostly) old Americans and a Partridge in a Bad Wig. With this cast of characters Putin will have to fall on his own because America stopped pushing two years ago.
70
Dunkin Donuts has taken over Moscow with light and sweet coffee. I’ve seen this with my own eyes. If politics fail, the sugar levels in their coffee and donuts will cause all their teeth to rot out. A win win in a country without good dental care.
12
Vladimir Putin is an authoritarian strongman who has no respect for democracy. But the sad truth of this story is neither do we.
When we were in the process of reshaping the Russian political economy with our shock doctrine, Russians had an elected Parliament several active political parties and a new sense of freedom after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But democracy can be quite messy, often following the will of the people rather than the prescribed direction orchestrated by a handful of leaders.
That was the case when Parliament, led by the reconstituted Communist Party opposed Boris Yeltsin's shock economics. His response was to call out the army and shell the Parliament building and arrest the opposition.
His next move, urged by his US advisors was to suppress all opposition to their recommended economic changes and amend the constitution shifting more authority to the presidency.
We didn't worry about authoritarianism under the compliant alcoholic Yeltsin, but as Russia was in economic free fall a little known technocrat was chosen to stabilize the government and simply make things work again.
And so Putin, the authoritarian, assumed the presidency with powers that we told Yeltsin to put into the new constitution.
We could have supported democratic institutions and multiple parties, including the CCCP. But we were so insistent on a purely capitalist Russia that we didn't care that it was moving away from being a democratic Russia.
Now it's too late.
54
@Agustus Agustusson How is Russia a 'free and open society' when compared to India, for example?
2
@Drspock Coulda, woulda, shoulda, sometimes events just have a life of their own.
@Agustus Agustusson - ah here you are again, peddling your particular spin about Russian "democracy" being some kind of quirky variant on the concept. One where the president murders and imprisons his opponents and changes the election results.
But it still counts as "democracy" right? Sure it does! Because China!
1
Putin is one of the wealthiest men in the world. His fortune won't go away whether or not he remains in power.
He can buy influence, which gives him enormous power in office or out.
Russia may be at a tipping point regarding democracy. The Internet is instigating protests around the world, which may be its greatest gift to mankind.
6
@Ken Solin
He falls and they seize that fortune for redistribution.
Hyenas will eat their own kind.
A few points neglected herein deserve inclusion. First is
the russo-slavic nationalism that became a foundational
organizing principle to mobilize the non urban and non western oriented parts of Russian society post '91. This remains a strong component of putin's support. It is not
really compatible with liberal democratic principles. This is similar to the foundation of white christian fundamentalism upon which trump's support rests, stably and securely.
Secondly, western principles of human rights, faith in a historically foreign tradition of liberal democratic institutions, independent of a leader and his party, were badly undercut by what happened in Russia under yeltsin. Shock therapy failed miserably to help develop
a free market founded upon legal principles and overseen
by a reasonably independent judiciary.
There is no large base of people committed to trying that
a second time. There are only small pockets of urban
educated and western oriented people who insist that
the country needs to try it again.
Their chances of success are, unfortunately, miniscule. They have no access to national media, and no way of organizing larger groups outside a few urban bases. They have no alliances with industrial or rural parts of the economy. In such a reality, only a real collapse, a sudden, unpredictable, exogenous event that destabilizes on a large scale can change people's internal models of what is possible.
Who knows when that might occur.
8
@bl -- Russian society was set up as much by the Mongols from the East as by the Swedes and Germans from the West. They brought an absolutism enforced with extreme barbarism that was far more extreme than anything seen in the West.
Further, the Swedes in question were Vikings, not the much later socialists. The Germans in question were Teutonic Knights, not the much later socialists.
Western Liberal thought came to Sweden and Germany from further West, long after they had already blended something else into Russia.
Western liberalism isn't just foreign to Russia, it is alien.
45
@bl If anything, Putin is much less nationalistic than many other Russians, including Navalny, who started his career as a politician, with video where he called to "exterminate all non-Russians as cockroaches". Putin does recognize that Russia is multi-ethnic society and trying very hard to keep ethnic violence under control. He does give a lot of power of church, what is, in my opinion, mistake but he also give power other religious leaders especially Muslim ones.
1
The question is, what replaces Putin? Russia, like China, has no history of democracy, and imperial habits are woven into their DNA. What distinguishes Hong Kong from China was 100 years of British rule; it takes several generations to inculcate a new way of thinking as the old guard dies out. Putin may be gone but his oligarchs will remain and they will just find someone new to be their puppet. Meanwhile, they will have moved all their money out of the country and put it into luxury real estate that no one lives in -- kudos to Michael Bloomberg and our own oligarchs.
139
@stan continople -- Putin is now 66 years old. He's been living under high stress for 20 years, at the top of a dangerous and unstable structure. Before that he was KGB in Germany, and cut loose in a lost Russia. Those are high stress too.
It is perfectly reasonable to consider what comes next. Politics always has a next act, but someone who's had Putin's life shouldn't be expected to go on and on from his present 66 to what, 80, 90? That's absurd.
A transition is only a question of time, perhaps just one more 8-year cycle of the American Presidential system.
13
@stan continople Although I am not sure that British rule was so much democratic for Hong Kong, seems like they didn't have general election until 1997. I would say they experience of democracy is much less than Russians, considering that Russia had free election in 1991 (that, of course, if you want to disregard election under Soviet system)
9
@Mark Thomason It is indeed, but question is what kind of leader will come next. In American system the choice of candidate is very limited and defined by quite predictable hard-core party members. Russia doesn't have such breaks, that's why it is scary for Russians to choose a new leader. Known devil is better than unknown one. It is possible that Putin will choose his successor. And I don't think it will be undemocratic, after all we all need recommendation, and more powerful people recommend you, more likely you will succeed
11
Saddam Hussein was also "democratically" elected.
Even if he was in trouble, Trump is doing his best to help him stay in power.
14
Do not worry Bret. The Tooth Fairy is coming to lend support to the movement. Other notables are also considering joining.
26
@edward smith The "tooth fairy"? All decent people are in dire straits, when there's the likes of Putin, Moscow Mitch, and Putin's U.S. born puppet.
3
Putin is a master of making his people feel proud of Russia. Never underestimate the political longevity of a leader who taps into patriotic feelings. Putin will stay in power because people will love their country more than they love him, per se.
19
Will they love Putin if they are poor as well as without much in the way of aspirations?
3
@NM-
Through his oligarchs and their legions of apparatchiks Putin controls Russia’s media.
The message is choreographed. Imagine what America would be like if the Trump White House controlled CNN, MSNBC, FOX, ABC, NBC and CBS News.
1
Poetic justice rarely comes about in the real world. And even when tyrants fall, they tumble only after inflicting tremendous human costs. Putin now has Trump as an enabler and will doubtless work again in 2020 to keep Trump in power. Imagine the horrors the two would accomplish given another four years.
Rather than hope for discontent in Russia to upend Putin, we're better served by defeating Trump and returning America to her role as defender of freedom and democracy. We need to get our own house in order, then join in opposition to tyrants everywhere. Like all dictators, Putin will escalate the casualty count the more he feels threatened.
427
Trump is doing more to quietly destabilize the Putin regime than any of the Democrat apologists like Obama who promised the Russian Premier after the mike was off that "We can do business after the (his) reelection. Trump's action to make the US oil independent from foreign powers supports us nationally into the future. While holding down the price of oil through this production, it suppresses the Russian economy and elevates the level of dissatisfaction of all Russian people toward the leadership. It also gives the free part of Europe an alternative to Russian domination of their energy needs. Obama did nothing effective about Russia aggression around its borders other than flap his mouth. And Obama continued to promote business ties of American companies with Russia, even after he was aware from previous years that Russia was interfering with US elections. By the way, we do now and have continued to try to influence/interfere with foreign elections since becoming a world power two centuries ago.
4
We became oil independent under Obama. In any case, oil cannot be used as much as it is today due to global warming. This talk about how clever is Trump is imaginary thinking. He’s not some master of a drunken style martial art deceiving opponents. He’s a silly man who never pays attention to the odds and so he plays to lose.
81
@Edward
You must have some sort of inside line. Was (Ronald Mc)Donald’s Trump Tower in Moscow, which he was lying about, part of a brilliant plan to neutralize Putin? Are all his lies and erratic behavior a “Drunken Master” type of approach to combatting the dark forces of tyranny?
But seriously, the fracking boom was happening long before Trump was elected, and if Trump and/or the GOP really were serious about “energy independence” they would be all for higher fuel efficiency and for replacing petroleum with environmentally safer alternatives.
90
A decent piece. Unfortunately, still very few are brave enough to stand up like Sobol does. Repressive measures are very painful. People who come out to protest (legally) end up with several years of jail terms.
The West could help more in the past with more targeted sanctions for the regime, freezing assets etc. It seems to be too late for that. The regime has no way to turn back considering prior crimes like killing the opponents, war in Ukraine, etc.
All we have is a wishful thinking at this point.
24
About an hour ago I finished reading Svetlana Alexievich's Second Hand Time about the fall of communism in the 90's. There are many stories of young people protesting the coup against Yeltsin and their dreams for democracy and a better life only to have those dreams dashed. One woman said in Russia everything can change in five years but in 200 hundred years it is all the same. I hope it is not so and the good and brave Russian people will one day have their time in the sun.
118
@irene There were a lot of people protesting coup against Yeltsin, the only problem was that at that time the Russian Parliament had much more power than the President Yeltsin. So, it was not a coup, it was the Parliament exercised its power over Yeltsin according to the Constitution. After Yeltsin shot down the Parliament, he wrote the Constitution that granted vast power to him, and naturally this power was transferred to Putin as the next President. So, for today's political system Russia can thank all these young people who dreamed of democracy in 1993. Really, they should be careful what they wished for.
4
@yulia
The NY Times 'pick' that celebrates "progress" as toward openess (glasnost) and transparency (perestroika) is the best message to take away from Brent's article; and what is sad to me about the Russian project is that the ideals advanced by Gorbachev were essentially lost in the shuffle from Yeltsin to Putin.
The most heartbreaking element was the complete loss of patrimony by the rapacious oligarchs who "bought up" state assets and claimed them as "private."
Russia could have transitioned as Gorby intended into a more progressive and humanitarian place that simultaneously advanced the well being of all the Russians, and formed humanitarian government, and even an ecologically oriented society. But that isn't what happened. It fell into a race to the bottom of kleptocracy...and now all the country has to show is a murderous tough guy for a leader.
I'm not impressed by Putin other than the fact he is a tough guy, a survivor, ruthless and cunning; I do remain hopeful that Putin might do the right thing and instill institutional changes that put the country on a better course.
3
@Chuck Putin will not change Russia for the better because he is a dyed in the wool"sovok".