It was also pointed out in the analysis of the numbers this morning that 40,000 of those 130K jobs are temporary jobs for U.S. Census workers by the Federal government. Therefore, private industry added a mere 90,000 jobs during August. And this was during a rush of American consumers hurrying to buy things they needed and thought they "might need" prior to the latest rounds of Trump's tariffs went into effect on September 1st, with more to come on December 15th. Don't believe the "negotiations" that are said are going to take place with China - even from China's PR people announcements. They won't last, you can count on Trump doing something incredibly stupid to blow it all up once again.
6
Good news. Have never seen a president this focused on jobs and wage growth. This despite efforts to thwart him at every turn.
11
I don’t know anyone who’s gotten a raise. Just who and where are the one who supposedly are.
8
I read in the headline, "...Wage Gains Accelerated" and thought, great, maybe 5% at least and if it made headlines, probably 7 or 8%. Silly me. Way down in the middle of the story I see it. Not even 1% but 4/10s of 1% and that was "more than analysts expected"! I realize this is month-over-month and not an annualized figure, but c'mon. Is this what American workers get when our economy is running on all cylinders and companies are scraping the bottom of the barrel to find people to work for them? If I'm missing something, please explain. I so wanted to believe that that Republican tax cut for corporations would trickle down more than a few pennies to the working class.
9
“We don’t have any educational requirements — no degrees or anything,” he said. “We’re just looking for someone who is hard-working”, says Henry Hulan, chairman of Musgrave Pencil Company.
No educational requirements. $10/hour to start.
This is something to brag about?
What happens when these workers get sick or hit by an Amazon delivery truck? Then what?
8
In spite of what the mass immigration lobby tells us, supply and demand applies to labor like it does to most everything else. Workers are finally seeing some wage increases. There is no need to flood the country with more people to dive those wages back down.
3
I seem to recall hearing that we’re ‘opening up new mines and factories.’ Is that whatcha call ‘alternate facts’? And the wage gains... doesn’t that reflect the increasing number of states and municipalities dramatically raising the minimum wage, despite the ‘conservative’ Republican dominated federal government’s steadfast refusal to do so?
It seems we have an economy still moving along at about the pace it was when Fearless Leader and Supreme Omniscient and Omnipotent High Commander Trump ascended to the throne, but with a sputtering manufacturing sector and job growth increasingly centered on low-end ‘service jobs.’ It sure as heck isn’t the instant economic miracle Fearless assured us would follow his inauguration. With the federal deficit catapulted into trillion dollar territory, our trade agreements with allies in peril and a belligerent, ham-handed trade war with China underway, I don’t see smooth sailing ahead.
4
Imagine a country that imports everything it consumes, exports nothing and everyone works selling things to each other. Full employment, but it only lasts as long as the country has capital to consume or other countries are willing to lend it money.
Unrealistic, you say? But that is effectively the situation the US is in. A $500 billion trade deficit means we are using up our capital and going into debt. $500 billion is more than the GDP of most countries.
A financial system that allows free investment flows means that the automatic stabilizers that ensured a country would not run trade deficits for too long cannot work (a bit of economic jargon, I know).
Trump may be blundering his way through the trade war, but to his credit at least he recognizes the problem. That is more than we can say about most of the commentators in the NYT, who fail to recognize the impact on inequality, destruction of our productive base and legacy to our children.
2
@RAD61
I agree with you 100% !
@RAD61 As a sovereign nation, you can't FORCE other nations to buy your goods. If the USA has a trade deficit maybe you should be looking internally at the reason for that; I'll start by saying no one wants to buy fluorinated chicken or lots of food that has so many chemicals on it and in it, that it will eventually one day kill you or give you cancer. Most of the food in NZ and Australia goes to China as they know our food is good quality and doesn't have the chemicals in it that the USA food has. Also, some major exports, of the USA, go to Europe and your President has upset them as well, and he is not signing any eco friendly and international agreements to clean up the environment so expect to get less export orders from Europe in the future.
China isn't to blame for your trade deficit; your government is. Maybe check out what our nation does to get exports and look at that; as well as look at what Australia does. You can't play the blame game when USA is to blame for its own trade deficit. Also, USA has tariffs on other nations farming exports, such as NZ, so we can't compete with your farmers, but it hasn't stopped us from selling in the USA, even though NZ is a free trade nation where there are no protectionist tariffs on stuff we produce when foreign nations export to our nation.
This situation didn't just happen overnight, the USA trade deficit.
USA has sort of created this situation themselves by having tariff's on stuff WHEN IT SUITS THEM TO.
2
So you’re saying an economy of 330 million people can’t be based on hamburgers and software? All while they buy a bunch of junk from China and import millions of poor people?! Wow. Who knew?
2
People are rushing to spending now to avoid high tariffs later! If Trump takes this as his go ahead to continue his tariff war thinking the economy will stand strong -consumers aren't stupid -they will stop spending when prices increase.
3
So many partisans posting comments here. Basically , if your team isnt in the White House, you’re complaining about the report today, and vice versa. How and when did politics become as dumb downed as rooting for your favorite sports team?
4
Not sure, but I bet it has a lot to do with electing the star of a reality show game contest.
5
Trump personally selecting economic winners and losers seem pretty socialist to me...
2
Great joke, I needed something to laugh about!
I now no longer believe anything statistically that burps out of this corrupt administration.
It's always the highly paid rich and motor mouth millionaires and billionaires that seem to have the most say about the economy. Howabout getting the other side of the coin, in the USA, as I read the other day that laundry workers were complaining about being on $7 an hour wage. How's this tickle down economy working out for them and other low paid workers? Meet the new boss same as the old boss scenario!
I saw a documentary on USA workers who did low paid jobs and got it from their point of view. It was just hand to mouth existence. Lots of them lived in vans outside the gate of the posh houses they cleaned and did child care in etc. How are they getting ahead; their voices need to be listened to.
From my observations there is a shortage of houses everywhere around the world except in China, and all those foreigners are milking it with capital gains and getting richer and the poor still live in their vans.
4
CK_If you want a real eye opener for what life is like for today's American workers, see the documentary just released on Netflix called American Factory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m36QeKOJ2Fc&app=desktop
1
Congratulations to the newly employed, and to the business owners for hiring them. Our future depends on your continued effort and optimism. Thank you.
5
What do those new jobs pay? Will they cover a mortgage, food, clothing, health care and college tuition?
3
Wage gains accelerating?
The core inflation for 2019 is around 1.5%-1.9%, so that 3% wage increase is actually only 1.1%-1.5%. Oh, but corporate called and they said they don’t want to pay for your health plan anymore so they’re stripping even more benefits. The investors wanted an extra 2% on the end of year earnings.
*extreme sarcasm*
Congratulations! You are now the proud owner of a high deductible health plan that won’t cover any of the illnesses or injuries you or your family will ever actually have, and you STILL have to pay an extra $300 per month. The Trump economy is great! Isn’t it?
*extreme sarcasm*
5
President Trump has worked on trade deals that were unfair and prejudicial to the US economy. The global economic activity will adjust according to new trade agreements. Its a good time for investors to start a new business governed by laws that protects business and create jobs. There is no trade war; the past gig economy was diminishing growth.
5
I’m really sorry. I tried to read your argument, but the phrase “President Trump has worked,” stopped me dead—went blind with guffaws. Please don’t DO that again...I might rupture an aorta or something.
2
Also, if unemployed are at record lows, and government has given their employees a directive to make it difficult to apply for unemployment benefits, and they don't show up in the stats because they rely on family, friends, gangs, churches or whomever to exploit them for food and a place to sleep, then lots of these people will become mentally ill and government will pay more in the long run. Also, lots of people who find dealing with people in unemployment government department stressful and it affects their mental health, then their doctor, being ethical, will probably transfer them onto a disability benefit, and those stats are not counted as unemployment statistics.
3
The minority low unemployment stats are probably low because they've been denied unemployment benefits; that's what happened under the last National government in NZ and the people probably got recuited by gangs to get fed and commit crime. Since we've had a new government unemployed on benefits has increased by over 55,000 people and that's just because the staff in these offices had a directive from the nations leader to refuse benefits or make it so hard for people to apply that they don't bother being a government unemployment statistic and just end up in gangs or doing whatever to survive and get food and somewhere to sleep. There's ethics left out of these stats and the lengths government goes to to keep those stats down. You need public watchdog government paid groups to monitor this ethical issue. ALL USA citizens should have food and a place to sleep - it is what decent nations do to look after their citizens.
4
Economic growth is slowing around the world and most nations put it down to the trade war between Trump and the Chinese leader. The NZ government keeps lowering interest rates, to new all time lows in NZ, but that's just debt fuelled spending and has no substance in factual export orders. At some stage consumer debt has to be repaid just like government debt has to be repaid. A think an economy that has it's basis built on NO solid foundations, like old fashioned real 'export orders', is called a 'ponzi scheme'. Creative accounting only works for a short time until the bubble bursts.
2
Remember when Trump told us that his tax cut was going to be "rocket fuel" for the economy? That it wouldn't add to the deficit because we were going to have 4% growth? That we were all going to get such big raises we'd be rich like him? That manufacturing jobs would explode?
Well, all that's exploded is those tired old trickle-down economic theories. Again.
6
Everything is geared towards Trump being re-elected in 2020, if you look at his, Donald J Trump, official facebook page.
Stuff what happens to the economy after that. It's always good to see how cunning governments can get when doing unemployment statistics - such as classifying a person working a couple of hours a week, as being 'employed'. You have to dig into the stats to get the real picture.
Also, Trump is so desperate to get re-elected he has taken tariffs off imports for Christmas - the real reason, in my opinion, is because he wants to get re-elected and throw around stats that say unemployment went down. Well, it's going to go down if consumers go out and stock up, like crazy, on goods because the tariffs go back on after Christmas. Oh! And when is after Christmas? 2020 and what happens in 2020? Ask yourself that. It take a while for stats to be released to the public. Cunning as a snake.
Another thing you need to watch out for in the USA, is petrol prices going up, like in NZ, over half of what we pay for petrol (I think you call it gas in USA) in NZ goes to the government in taxes. It is an indirect tax collection by central government.
Trump is wrong to lower taxes on the top 5% then tax the general public, indirectly, by putting taxes, like tariffs, on stuff and maybe, petrol. It will mean less spending by the consumer as they have less money in their pockets, and businesses go under like dominoes.
1
@CK I forgot to add that when these tariffs started in the USA they didn't kick in for the consumer for approximately 4 months, as the goods were travelling to the USA by ship, so what's the guess that the taking off the Christmas tariffs go back on immediately after the 2020 elections. Thus there has been a false sense of the economy doing well, because the tariffs haven't been on since Christmas and up to the 2020 elections.
1
The way i look at it, there is a definite relationship between the low unemployment rate and Trump's suppression of opportunities for the foreign-born. I believe that it has become so dangerous to admit you're an unemployed immigrant that such people simply manage to fade into the woodwork when a statistician from the Labor Department comes around....
3
Given Trump's habit of shamelessly and continuously trying to arm twist DOJ, Federal Reserve, EPA, CIA and Pentagon professionals to compromise their independence for political gains; and even ibellish the NOAA's hurricane maps, I take anything coming from this administration with a grain of salt. I am afraid I have become one of them -the conspiracy theorists who look at anything coming from the government with a jaundiced eye. Once and if Trump ever leaves office, we must thoroughly detoxify the entire government machinery and the minds of the US citizens.
2
I'll believe that employers are desperate for employees when I and others in my age group (50 on up) start to get called to interviews, are not looked askance at because we have gray hair and wrinkles, and get real offers to real jobs. I'll also believe it when I stop seeing ads with lists of skills that are impossible for one person to have unless they've worked 30 years or are exceptionally talented. In other words, when employers stop advertising for purple squirrels and start looking at real people and valuing rather than pretending to value real experience.
And for those who think that being over 50 means that we're stupid, unable to learn, and unfit, we're not. I've been swimming over 2 kilometers a day since I was in my 20s. I had to switch careers when I was 40. And ever since I graduated from college I've had to learn new things. I remained curious about my world and work. So please tell me how this makes me unfit to work or technologically stupid, or unable to learn.
20
The suppositions are that as an older employee, you are mature enough to understand your own value and stand up for yourself, rather than accept getting pushed around like a younger, less experienced person; that you do not automatically know the ins and outs of digital mechanisms as a first language; perhaps that you are more likely to have health issues that might cost your employer either absences or money; that you have other demands on your time and attention than your work. If you are over a certain age and below a certain pay grade, you’re shopworn goods and they’ll consider you only if all the fresh meat has been sold out.
4
And that is just an indicator that the job market is not so great as the number would suggest.
4
@hen3ry In my line of work, a call center, old workers are desired because we show up on time, are willing to work and have good phone manners.
2
Great! Let's raise the minimum wage.
5
"The Takeaway": only 60% of the work force is employed and the younger generation is now a temporary part of the "Gig Economy", 40% of Americans earn LESS THAN $20K/YR, 500,000 are homeless, etc. etc etc. Why not try telling the truth, just for once. Try it, you might like it! You will never know until you've at least tried it, right? Ah, come on in, the water's fine. Go Bernie! Stress R Us
6
@Greeley Miklashek, MD
And for those of us who are old enough to remember the old communist bloc, yes, everyone had employment, if they showed up to the job. This is the great system that gave them the Trabant. Though to be fair, that funny little car is now a collectable.
1
And will Mr. Musgrave vote for Trump next year? If so...well, we reap what we sow.
1
And the Progressives will downplay this report to try to create a narrative that Trump is killing the economy in 3...2...1...
4
I’m afraid the countdown has already passed one...
How about we wait for the next jobs report to see how these August numbers get revised.
“In the most recent report, the number for June was revised for the second time, to 178,000 — 46,000 less than was initially reported.”
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/jobs-report-growth-unemployment/
5
As a Republican, I am very disappointed with these numbers
We were promised job growth over 200,000 a month with no debt and no tax hikes
Instead we've gotten job growth in the low 100,000 range, all-time high budget and trade deficits, and now rising taxes, not to mention open borders and weekly terror attacks
I've had enough - the experiment has failed
6
@Marion Grace Merriweather
Do you think you’ll get job growth, no tax hikes, and no debt from Democrats?
1
@EGD
We had more job growth and lower deficits under Obama. "No debt" is a ridiculous promise that only a fraud would promise ... and he did
And I expect the tariffs to be rescinded by a Democrat, which is a tax cut
As for tax hikes, they won't pass the Senate, so I don't worry about it
1
Every time new jobs numbers are released, I ask myself the same question. How many of those jobs are full-time, high-paying, full-benefit jobs and how many are part-time, minimum wage, no-benefit jobs? I have a feeling the answer might surprise us all.
11
The US can not be experiencing a boom, but in desperate need of an interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus from trillion dollar annual deficits.
Trump’s massive consumer and small business tax hikes through tariffs will increase inflation.
More fiscal stimulus cannot address bad economic policy.
Trump is attempting to avert a normal economic cycle for his personal benefit, which creates more unwarranted risk accumulation and greater destruction when the cycle turns.
The Fed is supposed to be the counterbalance to such.
4
People think that bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. should have happened overnight.
No, it first requires that the U.S. impose rigid tariffs on products coming from China and other low wage nations.
When the American manufacturing sees this as long-term policy, only then, will U.S. factories re-open for business.
@Michael
So the answer turned out to be tax hikes all along ??
@Marion Grace Merriweather
Part of your country's problem is that your taxes aren't high enough.
That's why universal health care doesn't exist in your country - the only developed nation in the world that doesn't have it.
Yes, free trade is great if all you care about is buying the cheapest possible toaster.
2
How are the statistics computed? If an employee retires and someone is promoted or hired to replace the retiree, is this considered as a “new job” creation? I have been skeptical for a long time about labor statistics! Too many people I know can’t find a job.
6
How is it a "decent" performance when 20% of the new jobs are temporary census jobs? This report show the economy continuing to lose momentum. Any new shock (Brexit, anyone?) is likely to trigger a new recession.
2
When Obama was President, any numbers that were good, Trump said they were fake and that the numbers were being doctored.
He also said that the unemployment rate was false claiming true unemployment was more like 20 plus %.
Now he touts his economic success but I believe 130,000 is a low number.
If they continue to drop or go negative, I just wonder how long will it take for him to start calling those numbers fake and that they are being doctored by some imaginary conspiracy to make him look bad.
2
Plus, a brighter outlook is just around the corner: all the new jobs created by dismantling the nation and rebuild it into a green one!
3
Many of the new jobs are temporary probably low wage jobs. It doesn't do much good if jobs don't provide a living wage.
9
The dispute with China requires that the U.S. hold China to observe U.S. laws and standards concerning intellectual property. It is not in their national interest nor is it compliant with communist ideology. Now that they've been called out very publicly (this might have been better settled behind closed doors!) they are in the position of having Chinese law dictated by Donald Trump and his trade representatives. Even if it was possible it would make Xi look weak. And for Trump to back down would make him look weak. As with all his other positions Trump plotted a political course rather than a diplomatic one. Tariffs will go on for years into the future, with or without Trump.
1
This report is meaningless without real dollar amounts and hours worked per week to back it up.
If a person earns the $7.25 minimum wage, and they gain 3.2% annually in their pay, they earn about 30 cents more per hour. $7.55 x 40 hrs. per week = $302 per week, or $1,008 per month. That's if the job is full-time. This does not even pay rent on the humblest of apartments.
Most minimum wage jobs are not full-time, nor do they provide benefits. Further, the minimum wage cannot support one person, let alone an infant.
It is noted that education jobs increased, which sounds good. Were they qualified teachers, or teaching assistants? The pay between the two positions is quite different, with teachers being unionized.
Another question is the labor force participation rate. The article says that 63.4% of those who want to work, between the ages of 15 and death, now have jobs. How does this possibly jive with 3.6% unemployment?
Either 36.6% of the population is unemployed and wants work, or 3.6% is unemployed. Between these statistics lies a vast difference, and again, the dollar amount of wages and number of hours worked is not specified.
Tariffs are having a negative impact on the global economy-- that's to Trump and the laisser faire Congressional Republicans.
But union blocking and wage suppression by large corporations is a huge detriment. They are liquid, yet use it for stock buy backs rather than job training for the future, and raising salaries.
3
@Lilou: You are misrepresenting the labor force participation rate (and thus what the article says). You (and anyone) can look up the definitions of these terms at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm#L). You can find the reported data through the BLS at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.
The labor force includes people who are working (the employed) and people who are not working but are looking and available (the unemployed). Those people constitute 63.4%% of the total population (in the applicable age range). The other 36.6% are either not available or not looking for work (e.g., retired people or people on disability).
The unemployment rate of 3.6% (or 3.7%) is the percentage of unemployed people (not working but available and looking) in the labor force. People such as the retired and disabled don't factor into it.
The BLS does not seem to offer all of the information that people might like to see, but it does break out employment and unemployment for full time and part time workers. The article here (in the NY Times) describes accurately what the BLS has reported. If it seems not to make sense you might want to look into the official definitions.
@Stan Sutton--I read the report all the time and it's terms and definitions. I wish more people did. The Labor Force Participation Rate only includes people who are working--that is--they participate in the labor force. Retirees, disabled, incapable for one reason or another are not included. The rest are not working.
I'm sure their definition of "employed" has not escaped you. If your household is one of those chosen for their monthly survey by the NBLS, and you are asked if you are employed, the NBLS considers you employed if you worked one hour during the survey week for pay -- one hour!
So when they say anything about employment, without qualifying it as part-time, full-time or givimg number of hours worked in a given period, they are referring to employment as 1 hour of paid work in 1 week within 1 year. It's in the definitions section.
1
@Lilou: Yes, your right about what the term "employment" (unqualified) means. It includes full time (> 35hr/wk) and part time (< 35 hr/wk, possibly as little as one hour).
Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted at the BLS site contains data on total employment and on part time employment. For Aug 2019 it reports
- 163,922 thousand in the civilian labor force (I.e., almost 164 million)
- 4,381 thousand who are employed part time for economic reasons, and
- 21,697 thousand who are employed part time for non-economic reasons
So part time employment is about 16% of total employment, or about one working person out of six. That includes everyone working a single hour up to those working 34 hours in the sampled time period. There's no breakdown within that group that I know of at the BLS site.
Conversely, the full employment rate (consistent with BLS data) would be about 84% of 96.3%, or about 80% of the population in the participating labor force.
The portion of the participating labor force that is unemployed or employed part-time for economic reasons is about 6.4%. That's worse than the 3.7% reported for all employment, but not dramatically worse, I don't think. (I would be surprised if it is unusual, and it is better than the overall unemployment rate that we've had at some times in the fairly recent past.)
So, the republicans make laws that push or allow US industrial production to move over seas and/or move their headquarters overseas to avoid paying US taxes. Then, the republicans push to kill unions. Then robics and automation replace workers... and we are only seeing the tip of that iceberg.
There are is a specific, very small group of people that by the practice of introducing money, currency, into the population, they fed a poison or drug to world but got them to believe that it was the only means of sustaining life. Then this small group took control of the money in all aspects. The people are dependent on this money and the drug dealers are the only source of the drug.
3
Work an hour and be counted to skew the figures. Figures will be republished down. The numbers are cooked.
Minuscule rise in wages.
This is to make you feel good when the crime de la cream continue to walk off with the money and benefits.
4
Minority unemployment at record low and wages up year over year at over 3% . I do not respect Trump or his character (or lack thereof) but the economic data is still looking good. We Democrats need to be focused on what exactly we will be doing to maintain growth for all—and I mean things we will do that have any chance of being implemented and funded. Just being Trump Bad 24/7 will not elect a Democrat President or equally important a Democratic Senate in 2020. And stop advocating for a recession as the hope for winning 2020.
48
@David
Democrats need to explain how their major policy upheavals won't negatively impact our economy because of the uncertainty they will produce. Obamacare had everyone holding their breaths, wondering what shoe would fall and on whom.
14
@david
Thanks for a bit of insight and accuracy.
7
@david The economy is OK if you are happy with the hugh number of millinials who are unable to marry or buy a starter house due to student debt and low wages. If the economy is doing so well, why do I have the feeling that we are living on the sharp edge of economic disaster?
39
As usual, when you look at the graphs, you’d be hard pressed to say: here’s where Trump got power. Steady curves since the recession, Trump continuing the Obama trends, except now he is adding tariffs and a trade war, so let’s keep looking at these graphs and see how the Trump economy fares in the near future.
25
@Dagwood
Interesting how tariffs are considered an act of economic sabotage by Trump's critics but a long overdue necessity by the rest of the country. His critics want his supporters to be angry and punish him for any hardship they experience because of our tough new stance on China, but, in fact, a majority of the country supports his tougher stance on China. It's not unlike how a majority also support him on immigration and oppose open borders.
9
@AACNY Do the farmers who are having to be propped up by government handouts really support those tariffs?
13
I do not expect the next Democratic President to reverse the tariffs. Free trade is (or at least used to be!) a Republican priority. Only a Republican like Trump could push something like global tariffs on imports from China as well as allies. Republicans in Congress would never allow such protectionism under a Democratic President! It will take another Republican President down the line to reverse them.
Some context, Canada also released its job report today, The Canadian economy gained 81,100 net jobs in August,
Canada population 37 million, US 327 million. You do the math.
49
@wstander
And the American number will likely be revised downward, as it usually is.
12
For comparison, the average number of jobs added per month over the past 10 years is 195,000. What it really looks like is that unemployment has plateaued and probably won't go much lower.
61
@tom
I think it is more likely that businesses are hiring people who have been out of work for a long time. It is also easier to get hired without sending out hundreds of resumes. That is why we are seeing the workforce participation rate increase. It appears the natural rate of unemployment is about 3.6% at this level of wage growth and labor participation.
Next the market needs to converge on the natural participation rate which still has room to grow. Once we get that participation rate businesses will have to compete harder for workers and the wage gains will increase faster without much change in the participation and unemployment rates.
Wages can increase too fast when there are no qualified workers left and create wage push inflation. But at that point businesses will look to automate more and increase worker efficiency. When inflation is higher than 2% then the FED will raise interest rates. This increases unemployment through job losses and limits wage growth. We are not there yet.
I think the FED raised rates too quickly after the last recession. Inflation was not above 2% and the natural rate of unemployment shifted far below the historical 5% when they started their increases. The Trump gambit has caused the FED to lower interest rates instead of continuing their steady increase. Trump can reach a deal after the FED lowers interest rates. They will likely stay in neutral for awhile if a trade deal is reached.
@tom I don't like to look at the last 10 years, because the job losses of the "great recession" will give you artificially low monthly employment gains. In a normal economy, with modest population increases, we should create more than 195,000 per month.
For example, Obama's final 32 months averaged 212,000 per month. That's 10% higher than your number.
But watch out. Trump is averaging 181.000.
Great news.
It must be because the tax cuts are paying for themselves.
No need to worry about the additional trillion dollars debt
Trump dumped on our national lap.
Gotta go, I’ve got a long day working at Bloomingdales till 8pm
and rush to my second job at Lunetta Pizza from 9pm to 2AM
60
The “news” from this administrations’ corrupt, destructive, undemocratic cast of camera ready buffoons needs to be taken with a boulder sized grain of salt. Last time they reported an increase in jobs, six months later the truth came out that the numbers were inaccurate.
3
Hey American middle class, how is that Trump trillion dollar tax giveaway going? You think W's second term was a disaster wait until the Donald Trump second term catastrophe.
3
@Ronald Baker
I want trump 2nd term I want him to completely detach us from China. Let's build supply chain around little Asian country and Mexico and compete with China. We shall see how it work.
1
No pain, no gain. While it is frustrating that the dispute with China is depressing job growth, it is a dispute that was decades in the making and which America finally had to address. We all need to be willing to sacrifice a bit in the short term as companies continue to move their supply chain to democracies like India and Mexico and away from anti-liberty, technology-stealing, crony capitalist China.
4
@O'Brien
We were promised that the trade war was easy to win and that it would be done so fast our heads will spin
Now you are professing patience and blaming others ?
Please
I'm a Republican, but when it comes to fixing the economy, I've learned that Democrats just work harder at it and get results
5
I don’t hear Democrats complaining about tariffs on China. However, I do hear economists, farmers, and big business complaining big time.
1
@Marion Grace Merriweather - So why are you a Republican?
I left the party after G.W. and I'm ashamed that it took me that long.
This is exactly why our system we are in now is really good because jobs were a problem and ever since trump they have increased a lot
2
Continued job creation (+ 130K) while other economies are stalling (e.g. Germany) creates a cognitive dissonance problem for many Trump hating readers here... the jobs must therefore be bad low paying jobs, Obama created more, these jobs do not have healthcare, the figures must be fake like the hurricane map, they are not full time, Wall Street expected more etc.
Let’s not look a gift horse in the mouth. Long term unemployed people are currently joining the workforce and there are more opportunities than last month, this is good news. Trump has not wrecked the economy and even managed to do something a cerebral Democratic President would never have the audacity for: confront China’s predatory trade practices. The glass is 5% full!
3
Takeaways:
1) 130,000 jobs - 25,000 (temp. Census jobs)=105,000
2) 105,000 - 20,000 (rev. June & July) = 85,000 NET GAIN
3) Only 3,000 were factory jobs (mining & logging lost 5,000)
Trump to the little guy:" How do you like me,now?"
2
African American unemployment fell to 5.5 percent, the lowest level on record.
Thank you President Trump!
7
@Mauricio
90% of that drop can be directly attributed to Obama
Kicking the extra point doesn't make you the MVP
Thank You PRESIDENT OBAMA !!
1
Like kingfish 52 said ..."When will the media stop touting the nearly meaningless"unemployment numbers"? I'd like some figures on the spiking national debt. I'd also like to see the government accountability office tell us exactly how much we've been burning up on security and golf days, and all the rest. That is if the government accountability office still exists. the New York Times it's definitely not beneath carrying a little water for Trump that's obvious.
1
Now subtract the census workers who were just hired, and take into account that they are lying. This will turn out to be a gain for 50K in three months.
Why do you believe anything this administration says?
1
GOP doesn't consider the nation!
--Use to project future economics of US economy, the difference between Republican and Democrat governing. From: Politics That Work
--Change in Unemployment Rate by Party of President- Since 1945 Each party has held the presidency for the same number of years since 1945. During those years, the unemployment rate has risen 11.8% under Republican presidents and has fallen 7.2% under Democratic presidents. Unemployment has fallen during the overwhelming majority of Democratic years since 1949. Unemployment rose steadily under Republicans up until 1982, then fell during the remaining Reagan years, and then rose again under both Bush Presidents.
--Dow Jones Performance by the Party of the President During the most recent 15 years during which Republicans have held the presidency, the value of the Dow has increased by 42%. During the Democratic presidencies, it has increased by 609%- 14.5 times faster. The average growth in the value of the Dow under Democrats during this period has been 14.75% and under Republicans it has been 5.11%.
--Change in Disposable Income Since 1930 by the Party of the President In the 44 years that we have had Democratic presidents since 1930, the real per-capita disposable income has increased 271%. During the 40 years during which we have had Republican presidents, it has increased 44%. On average, it has increased 3.1% (after adjusting for inflation) under Democratic presidents and 1% under Republican presidents.
7
honest questions:
how did musgrave pencil company employees vote in the 2016 presidential election?
what's the distribution of salaries at the company?
how did shelbyville vote?
the demographic distribution of either.
It is ridiculous and completely misleading when USA brags about its unemployment number. Many of those that are employed work multiple jobs to pay ends meet. Someone getting $7.25 is counted as employed along with those making 100K a year. How is that even fair?
4
@ALN You have provided a basic explanation of the fallacy of the jobs report.
1
..wondering what economic numbers would have been had Trump not called China out on trade and patent issues. Would any Democrat risked doing such a necessary action? doubtful. Fact is people with money to invest from around the world are flocking to the US not Germany,Japan or China indicating confidence in Trumps policies. The biggest economic threat is Democrats prevailing in '20 with Sanders/Warren free everything ideas ,severe punishments for the productive.and open borders driving down wages.
7
@Lane
Why was job growth higher under the Democrat Obama ?
I for one welcome higher job growth
Unemployment also fell under Obama, and now it is rising
As for the borders, there is no wall yet - the borders are more open than ever
@Marion Grace Merriweather
When comparing Obama economic growth and Trumps one should note Trumps numbers were without quantitative easing ,with higher interest rates. That Business confidence worldwide sharply increased moments after the election is noteworthy too.
2
@Lane
So despite business confidence spiking worldwide, job growth is lower ?
Wow ! It's even worse than I thought
Please bring back people in the Obama camp
The real problem is that Trump has an I win you loss personality. He cannot let go of anything until he gets praise for winning - take the weather map waste of time for example. To make matters worse Trump makes decisions based on his "gut" feeling. Trump will fail to grasp the current economic situation and instead of addressing economic adversity he will only blame others for it. Tump's win lose fixation and "gut" decisions will only serve to impede economic stability, optimism and calm markets.
4
I just did a google search and found an article from Georgetown.edu. I did not copy the entire article and the text is from 2013. I wonder the federal government is cherry picking the data to reflect a positive environment?
June 28, 2013 – A Georgetown report released this week predicts that 31 million jobs will open up as baby boomers retire, and another 24 million new jobs will be available by 2020, barring any unforeseen economic or political surprises.
The report by Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) also predicts a shortfall of five million workers with postsecondary education and training.
“If the U.S. Congress can deal with budgetary challenges, we are on schedule for recovery,” says center director Anthony P. Carnevale. “But we will still face a major shortage of college-educated workers, especially as baby boomers retire.”
Economic theories have ZERO predictive value, anything goes. No one could predict and even in retrospective explain the last few crashes. All my gut feeling tells me is that the price of anything can’t keep on going up exponentially, at some point it breaks and then drops as rapidly as it rose. Right now where would you invest ? stocks, real estate, bonds, etc have skyrocketed, do we really expect these to just keep on going up forever, just hard to believe. Moreover the world today is far more chaotic and unpredictable than it has ever been, which would make any kind of predictions ludicrous.
Hiring Rate
To first order, in a constant economy (constant unemployment etc) the monthly hiring rate is set by population growth. New jobs need to be created to accommodate it.
The annual US population growth is ~ 0.8%. The US labour market is 160 million. Thus, under a constant economy, the first order monthly hiring rate equals
108 000.
@Woof,
Population growth does not necessarily equal growth among those who are of working age. Poor countries have large grow among children but not those of working age. The US, Europe, and Japan are aging = population growth among the retired. Your first order is true but incomplete.
2
"Hiring Slowed in August but Wage Gains Accelerated"
"The economy added 130,000 jobs. Analysts on Wall Street had been expecting a gain of 160,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg"
A 130,000 new jobs is nothing to sneeze at.
Is this "expectation" really a valid point? What does the fact of it's the height of Summer with people on vacation have to play into this. It's just like the "slow down in hiring" in the coldest part of Winter when construction and related are at their lowest point.
September through December should show strong gains in hiring for the holiday season, I would expect.
2
There is talk about jobs created but not about context. How many people retire, and does this reflect as a new job? How many people who retire return to the workforce either from boredom or lack of resources? How many new jobs reflect healthcare for retired Americans?
4
when they talk about jobs increasing they are taking about increases in payroll count do one person retiring or bring let go and one person being hired is a net zero, hence why jobs can go negative if bad enough.
Let's give it up for Mr. Two Term! Thank you so very much for all these luscious, tasty jobs. Also, lovely to see our brilliant worker bees continuing to get wage growth that is approximately 78% in excess of core inflation to go with the extra $780 the middle fifth of families are keeping their pocket each year as a direct result of the Trump tax cut. A continuing uptick in labor force participation rate says people are getting off the sidelines and joining this wondrous economic party. Sure, most of us aren't ready to visit the Ferrari dealership just yet, but it's gotta feel good to be in the game again and actually getting ahead for a change after such a long, dark and dreary winter that we were told was the new "normal."
4
@Bob: I thought this was satire or sarcasm. The wage growth % looks great unless one understands how percentages work. The base from which they are measured in this case is anemic. Too many temp jobs with no benefits, few :making jobs," too many service sector jobs.
5
@Bob
So where are ALL those jobs that for college educated students. Where are the jobs that pay benefits and based on the Amazon article from yesterday you are not working yourself into an early grave.
No one wants to buy a Ferrari, only pretend rich white boys who work on Wall Street who want to show off their soulless character.
We just want the basics to care for our family and ensure that out parents medically are well cared for. Right now that is an allusion because the regular people are suffering big time.
So GOP enjoy your moment while it lasts, white people have always been in the game the game is rigged for them but not after this election.
2
@Bob: "it's gotta feel good to be in the game again"
ABSOLUTELY! Much like Cumberland was "in the game" vs. Georgia Tech in 1916. FYI, they lost 222-0.
2
The keemp revising previous months down so the August numbers will eventually be 110,000. Unemployment rates probably will remain low with the number of baby boomers retiring in record numbers. Nature's Demographic gift to Donald.
3
When will the media stop touting the nearly meaningless 'unemployment numbers'? It's not how many jobs are created, it's how GOOD they are! And for decades the number of GOOD jobs has been shrinking because our leaders have allowed companies to offshore their operations to countries where they can pay the slave wages their profit margins demand. And it's this lack of GOOD jobs that pay a living wage that has fueled the anger among voters that led to Trump.
Until our elected leaders remember who they're supposed to serve and begin working to undo the "trickle down" economic system we've been living in for 40 years, nothing will really change. The disparity between the Haves and the Have Nots will continue to widen, but your precious 'unemployment numbers' won't give you a clue, nor warn you of the coming eruption when the 99% finally gives up all faith in the System and turns to direct democracy - riots and conflict instead of the ballot box.
What's astounding is that so many allegedly smart people can remain so ignorant of the problem. You can't depend on a consumer-driven economy when you deprive consumers the means to buy. The rise in 'consumer spending' isn't because consumers have more money and confidence, it's because prices for non-discretionary items like health care and food keep rising.
America doesn't need more lousy jobs, it needs lots more GOOD jobs that pay a living wage. Start reporting on how many of those are created and people will start listening.
10
@Kingfish52. How many GOOD jobs were created under Obama ?
Memo to Nelson Schwartz: allowing for population growth, the net growth of jobs was 10,000 for the month. It would be helpful to have a horizontal line on the graph showing that 120,000 threshhold for net gain.
5
From the remarkably tepid reaction in the markets, it appears that Wall Street is underwhelmed.
2
Let’s see what the job reports show after the recent China tariffs against consumer products start to take effect.
2
$10.00 an hour may be a living wage in Tenn. but it certainly isn't in most of the rest of the country. My teenage grandsons would have taken that job in the summer between college semesters. Walmart was paying better than that ten years ago in Illinois. The predicament for Mr. Hulan is understandable and he will face more tough decisions ahead. I don't know who he voted for in 2016 but can only hope he will not support this administration in 2020.
14
If the economy is doing so well why is America's deficit so high ?
If the economy is producing more jobs, why is the homeless population growing at an alarming rate?
With all that money why were there 300 mass shootings in the USA last year?
13
I can't advise on the rest but in the case of the deficit while jobs have increased taxes were reduced which means the government receives less revenue even if more people pay taxes. This is why the government seems to be bringing in less even while the economy keeps growing, the fact that the IRS keeps having its budget and workforce cut also means they audit and go after fraud less.
1
How can we trust that this Labor Dept. employment did not receive the same treatment as the hurricane map? Unfortunately, nothing can be taken for granted under current circumstances.
17
@doc
Absolutely! The majority of Americans no longer believe a word trump says. Some of us NEVER did based on concrete facts regarding him. Someone really should tell the GOP about vetting.
4
@Becca Helen. Republicans should choose the person capable of winning the election, not nominate someone that Democrat’s think is acceptable. I’ll take Trump over anyone that is running as a Democrat. How can a conservative vote for any candidate that can’t find an abortion they wouldn’t support? Or a candidate that thinks college should be free, or student debt should be forgiven, or is for reparations, or not enforcing immigration laws, or seizing control of healthcare, or taking control of energy produced in America? There are too many more things I disagree with to mention. Trump had the courage to confront China's trade abuses that no other president would. If anyone honestly believes that our economy wouldn’t crumble under a Democrat controlled government, based on their campaign promises is dreaming. Foreign investors would cash out, and companies that could, would leave. Anyone that votes for a Democrat running for president either hates Trump, or hasn’t a clue on what the damages of there policies would cause. Probably both.
1
Again, if the economy is doing so well, why is the Fed considering lowering the interest rates? Trump only wants the rates to lower so his interest payments on his many loans would be drastically lowered. It would be great to have a president actually put our country first by paying down the astounding amount of debt they're (Trump/GOP) adding to daily..
18
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/06/business/economy/august-jobs-report.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage&login=google&auth=login-google#commentsContainer
This article interested me due to the fact of how low the unemployment rate has been. In recent years, the unemployment rate has reach more that 6%, and I can say I'm a proud American of how much the percentages have decreased. Not only that that past couple years wages have been slowly but surely Increasing especially in New York State, but the one thing I cant be sure of that if Wages increases would prices on normal usage things increase?
2
@Max Fischer As long as the majority of new jobs are temps or low-paying service jobs, this is the definition of a weak, if not necessarily stagnant economy.
1
Call me crazy, but I don’t trust anything coming from the Trump regime’s government.
They overstated the jobs added for 2018 by 500,000 jobs. Every single time the Trump government puts out a report, to me, it’s nothing more than Big Brother announcing to the people of Air Strip One that boot production was at record levels when in reality no one knew how many boots were produced.
19
I'm more concerned about our moral compass index. Seem to go lower every day.
23
What is the real full time employment number? When the 25,000 temporary census worker employment numbers are subtracted we end up with a gain of 105,000 new jobs. But how many are sustainable full time jobs? These numbers appear to be a harbinger of a future decline instigated by “petty” national leadership whose interests are only self serving.
11
@John
Did you have all this concern. under Obama ?
Maybe I am wrong but I see more and more "service industry jobs" being created that probably pay just above minimum wage. I am really concerned with the disappearance of middle class manufacturing jobs. And without the disposable income of the middle class supporting our economy, I see major challenges ahead. God I hope that I am wrong.
p.s., In an episode of "Undercover Boss," management convinced a valuable employee to stick around — then management made the hard business decision to shutter the plant. Groan...
p.p.s., Am I seeing a possible 1% wage growth since 2017 and the Trump administration took office? At least it's a positive number. Groan...
6
This is not what you should watch. The Yield Curve is what you should watch. Look up the consequences of an inverted curve. The FED thinks it can drag out the "boom" for a few more months by cutting rates, a quarter point at a time, but the recession is coming. And, it may be THIS year. When it happens, there will be no doubt. The bottom will fall out. The average person does not understand the information they get about the economy. Neither does tRump, NOR the entertainer, larry kudlow. Listen to people who know what they are talking about. Stop spending.
9
@ChesBay
Not quite. You need to read the reasons for an inverted curve -- not the knee-jerk response that a recession is automatically predicted. Firstly, an inverted curve in the past has indicated the POSSIBILITY of a recession within two years -- not starting this afternoon. Second, long-term US bonds are being bought up by foreign investors who are faced with negative yields in their own countries. This magnifies the inversion effect. Third, many large funds have to buy the long-term US bonds to hedge out their shorter-term risk due to overexposure to market volatility.
I'm sure you'd have realized these factors ... if a Democrat was in the White House; but since Trump is there instead, all reason goes out the window and disaster is just around the corner. Whatever the disaster du jour is for today.
10
@JW--I'm pretty sure I did not say "this afternoon." What we are experiencing, right now I believe, is "irrational exuberance." There's are consequences for that, sooner or later. I fear it will be sooner.
5
The same data presented under a different administration would be considered by all as (relatively) good news.
15
@boroka
LOL. Best retort I've read today. Exactly. And if it had been Obama, you'd be seeing mass offerings of worship, wreaths and prayerful thanks. Not to mention one Paul Krugman column after another claiming this proves his brilliance and his Keynesian approach correct.
4
The trump plan
Keep on borrowing, borrowing , borrowing
max those cards and add more monthly payments
Bankruptcy anyone??
13
@Jack Much of that borrowing comes as a result of Democrats adding on to the administration's budget.
1
@Jack
Yes, why can't Trump manage the economy like a good Democrat would in NY State and NY City.
2
@MCH - How did Democrats do this? Trump started his term with a Republican House and Senate and currently Moscow Mitch won't allow any votes to take place on legislation passed in the House.
1
Is it possible the stats are incorrect? Was it Japan that apologized a few months ago that they had to correct info on jobs growth?
I doubt almost all info coming from this administration.
Not worth the price of Trump running and making America feel and look like it was put in a blender .
10
Another fine economic report. Like it or not, Trump will be hard to beat.
14
@JackC5 Nearly 18 months is a long time... an epoch in Trump timekeeping.
Trump is more likely to beat himself. If there’s a contraction by early spring due to our Stable Genius’s instability, please don’t say we “ talked ourselves” into a recession....
9
@JackC5
Another terrible economic report. Like it or not, Trump will be easy to beat.
Has the Trump Administration been a good job creator?
Compare the first 32 months of the Trump Administration with the last 32 months of the Obama Administration. How many more jobs has the Trump economy created? Well, actually, 1 million fewer jobs. 6.8 million for Obama and 5.8 million for Trump. They spent a trillion dollars of tax cut stimulus and have very little to show for it...
37
@Tomdotstar Obama got the benefit of coming out of a recession, a time when there were mass layoffs. Of course, a recovery resulted in the hiring back of the labor force. Hence, Obama's job creation achievement is highly inflated.
4
@MCH I didn't compare Trump to Obama coming out of recession. I agree that might skew the numbers. Instead, I compared the most recent months. And those most recent Obama months were years after the recession.
@MCH the recession was over 4 years before Obama’s final 32 months and he had already been re-elected. Trump’s economic trend numbers are not as good, even if the top line numbers are better by virtue of his inheriting a booming economy at record highs in 2017.
1
I hear the concern about the economy, but month after month it keeps chugging along. This is Trump's biggest strength and the Democrats largest weakness. Thank your lucky stars that you are facing Trump in the election, his flailing about is the only thing that is keeping this election even close. If you had a President who knew what he was doing, with this economy, he would win in a walk off.
You might want to spend a little more time addressing things that impact ordinary people rather than $10 Trillion plans for a whole new economy. You are in the 'Hillary Echo Chamber' again.
13
@Bruce1253
Trillions for climate change measures that just happen to promote progressive social policies? Americans are not buying it.
2
@Bruce1253
How is job growth that is 40% lower than an average Obama month "chugging along" ?
You called Obama's economy a disaster.
What is 40% worse than a disaster ?
@AACNY - Right, so much better to just stock up on paper towels.
1
Every month the Trump Government releases the Jobs Report, and every month people believe what the Trump Government claims.
Why does everyone just blindly believe the Jobs Report?
"Oh, it's the Labor Department, not the Trump Government. They wouldn't just make stuff up."
Really?
We're talking about a guy who just takes a Sharpie to the Weather Service Map, to prove that a hurricane is headed towards Alabama.
We're talking about a guy, who fires anybody that disagrees with him.
We're talking about a guy, who just stole 3.7 billion Tax Payer Dollars from the Defense Department so that he can pretend to build The Wall.
And you're going to believe whatever Trump's Labor Department tells you?
9
@John Doe Yeah, why should we believe trained experts? Climate deniers and creationists heartily agree with your skepticism.
4
We'll know when and if Trump is doctoring the Labor Department reports when they say, "Tremendous economy, 12 million of the most luxurious new jobs ever created last quarter. Sleepy dems are losers. Sad."
Until then, have some respect for the hard-working and honest people at the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And the BLS number generally align with ADP's independent numbers. There are enough real disasters in the Trump administration, we don't need to cynically invent more without evidence.
1
Trump is himself a climate change denier. As far as anyone can tell he doesn't have a clue who Charles Darwin was or what Darwinian biological and evolutionary theory is about. He is a compulsive liar, having been caught in lies that now number in the thousands. He demonstrates a narcissistic personality disorder on a daily basis--in bis own words, not others'. His administration has created a climate among the departments providing data that has been driving out experts unwilling to submit to his unprofessionalism. He is clueless about foreign policy, American history, and economics.
The trade war with China did not result on the end of times for the US workers.
Employers are hiring.
Well that is just terrible news for the Democrats!
It could not be worse. They have to go stand there at the podium and tell you this president is the end of the US as an economic power house and you should vote for them, only they can rescue the economy. Then this happens. What a bad day to be a Democratic presidential candidate.
People will be asked to go vote for open borders, socialism, the new green deal with trillions of new expenses paid for by new taxes, and for everything AOC and Omar stand for.
Or vote their wallets.
I wonder which one will win out.
13
@AutumnLeaf - more jobs were created during Obama's last year in office than in the last 12 months, so according to your logic, president Hilary Clinton is very likely to get reelected next year...
6
@AutumnLeaf - If you think Trump is good for our wallets - wait until you factor in damage from climate change, cleaning up (or treating people for) increased pollution. And how about waging future war without allies? There is no free lunch, just suckers who don't know that they are picking up the tab.
1
@Bogdan
So will the alleged impending recession be Obama's legacy as well? Cannot have it both ways.
1
Just look at the graph. This year looks dismal compared to 2018, and it is much more erratic than 2017. Not good news.
7
$10/hour is a poverty wage! They wonder why they can’t find workers? I made more than that working as a sales associate at the GAP in 2006 back when I was a college student!
26
@Andy
Same here. Good unskilled labor ( housekeepers, home care workers, gardeners, lawn mowers, etc.) command $30/hour in our area. And babysitters receive on average $20/hour.
Good workers are hard to find and people are willing to pay a good salary for a good day’s work.
Interestingly, most of the people hired are immigrants. They can be relied upon to show up on time,do a good job, clean up the job site, and be pleasant.
Many own their own homes, do not require any government assistance, and are planning on their kids going to college.
Imagine that!
I think we're getting by on inertia at this point. We need positive inputs. What are the chances of getting them?
2
@Stephen Merritt: for positive inputs you mean negative data for Trump..
The 10-year bond, the true barometer/benchmark is down to 1.56% from 3.27% ten months ago. The Fed fund's rate is at 2-2.25%. All the pundits claim a recession will undoubtedly occur due to the "inversion" of the yield curve. Yet, we've never had the Fed funds rate this low during an inversion. And the economy is still adding jobs, albeit at a slower pace than earlier. I suggest everyone read William Cohan's piece from earlier in the week concerning the Fed for a credible analysis of what is occurring at this time. Interest rates are still at historically low levels with an additional $3.5 trillion of Fed QE still on the books. If the Fed cuts again this month, it will be pushing on the proverbial string. Business investment is dependent on Trump's whims and as such, will be in limbo until he's out of office. Cutting rates even further will not change that reality. Prudent savers have been totally cast aside in this incessant battle over the past 11 years between the Fed's extremely easy monetary policy, and Wall St.'s insistence that it needs low rates to continue its esoteric and destructive investment schemes. The outcome will be very messy indeed.
11
@marty,
Thanks for a great well thought out post. One of the best written succinct explanations of what is going on.
1
Sorry, but I'll wait for the "revised" numbers that will be coming out in a couple of months.
They will be closer to the truth.... but still be just "truthy".
15
Nice review. Good to hear about the participation rate. Would help to include the stat on U-6 since that is the most expansive view on unemployment. Otherwise, not sure this is track, or its possible to guestimate, but would be interesting to hear about increase in wages adjusted for inflation, to see what are the real increases in wages.
3
Illuminating writing by Nelson Schwartz:
“In part, [Ms. Bostjancic] said, the rate cuts are intended to compensate for the anticipated drag from the tariffs in 2020. She estimates that tariffs will reduce economic growth by more than a half a percentage point next year.”
We’re paying for trump’s trade war. To employ the classic economic phrase, trump is robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Trump is the master illusionist. Reporters need to cover him that way. He’s got his followers believing that he is doing something for the economy. It’s all smoke and mirrors.
I hope that trump is indeed a deity, as he states. It’s going to take a miracle to keep this trump economy from crashing.
9
Are the Bureau of Labor statistics done with
Sharpies?
33
@Dry Socket Did you ask this question under the Obama administration?
Nonsense.
The U.S. is not a business.
The U.S. is a nation state.
The President of the United States is not a businessman.
The President of the United States is the head of government and state.
Donald Trump isn't a businessman. Trump inherited his wealth from his daddy. Every business venture Trump tried on his own failed. Trump play acted being a businessman on reality TV.
Low unemployment reflects people not looking for low wage service industry jobs. Along with migration of American jobs to low wage foreign countries.
19
Are we going to find out later that these numbers were vastly inflated, like we did last month? How many of these are gig-economy-type jobs? How many are underemployed, or have simply given up looking for a job?
A 3.2 percent average wage increase would be pretty good, depending on your current wages. If you're making $150,000 annually, a 3.2 percent raise is nearly $5,000. Pretty nice. But if you're making $10 an hour, that's an annual raise of $665. That's well below the additional cost of living resulting from Trump's tariffs.
I don't know... call me jaded, even cynical. I don't feel like I'm doing better than I was 2 years ago. In fact, it's getting more difficult.
22
@Patty O. Look at the U-6 rate for underemployed, folks not actively looking for a job. U6 increased slightly from 7.0 last month to 7.2 in August.
`
The numbers are probably directionally alright, and reflect a trend going back to the mid teens (2014/2015).
`
Gig economy stuff seems to have receded. The holding two or more jobs maybe at around 5% like a NYTimes Op Ed guestimated.
The Breaking News alert email I received from NYT is headed:"Breaking News: The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, a sign that the labor market is holding up despite the continuing trade war with China."
Less than an hour earlier I received an email alert from the Washington Post that 130,000 jobs were added "... as hiring slowed sharply amid concerns that the economy is deteriorating."
Even Fox News reported that the August job report fell short of expectations.
If the number of jobs added was below anticipated and predicted by various sources--why is the "labor market holding up"?
Does the service sector really present "... a much healthier picture", as NYT reports? NYT does not tell us the total jobs in the service sector for August. (Nor does the BLS report.) But certainly the 25,000 temporary census worker jobs would be included in the service sector.
NYT today has given us a biased and pollyannaish analysis of the August employment news.
6
Digging down into the report. Those working part time for economic reasons increased by 397,000 to 4.4 Million people. Those unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still looking for a job increased by 77,000. Manufacturing jobs increased by just 3,000. Average monthly increases in 2019 were 6,000 jobs. 2018 manufacturing averaged increases of 22,000 per month. Mining and logging, the oil patch lost, 6000 jobs. 12,000 jobs over the last 3 months. Trucking lost 5,000 jobs. Couriers and Messengers (grubhub) increased by 4,000.
Combine that with the troubles in Agriculture and the increase in farm bankruptcy in Wisconsin this is not a good report for Trumps Base.
20
With such a low unemployment rate employees should be considered a valuable commodity and amply compensated or at the very least quite secure in their positions.
So why is that not the case?
6
Recessions typically follow manufacturing contractions.
3
To all you nay-sayers here, praying for a recession to save us from another 4 years of Trumpian prosperity and record low unemployment, what is your economic plan for our future?
Another Obama "recovery:" 1.6% annual growth in his first full year; 1.6% annual growth in his last year; and no year with growth as high as 3%, the only time in US history, even in the Great Depression, that bad?
Record unemployment for both African-Americans and Hispanics, with the manufacturing employers of tens of millions of workers driven out of the country, so they just stop looking for work that is gone?
800 billion dollars shipped to to China permanently every year for the things we used to make for ourselves, like steel and parts for our military hardware. But no worries. When the balloon finally goes up, we can beg "Please, Mr Xi, sell us what we need to make our weapons so we can defend ourselves against you." He'll sell them to us. He's nice.
And free health care, free tuition, free housing, free everything. It worked for the USSR, East Germany, China under Chairman Mao, Cuba, Venezuela, and every other Socialist economy. It will work just as well for us.
All hail our new president, Comrade Warren, or Saunders, or Harris, or Whoever."
What a plan.
12
@Diogenes Us Dems are not planning for a downturn in the economy in order to remove Trump, although it would be helpful in that task. Moreover, your facts are suspect. Several times Obama's GDP figures exceeded 4%, more frequently than under Trump. Of course we can't give everyone free tuition, free healthcare, etc. Nonetheless, we can take back the moral fiber of our country, and reverse the ballooning deficit and growing inequality.
27
@Bruce Maier
To which I would add we can ensure that everyone does have access to healthcare (not the same as free healthcare); access to higher education (again not the same as free college) - which in turn will allow us to maintain our edge in innovation.
Diogenes has apparently bought into the fake narrative and simplistic thinking that’s been peddled by Faux News and others
14
@Diogenes How convenient that you forget that Trump inherited from Obama a strong economy that was adding jobs by the hundreds of thousands month after month, whereas Obama inherited an economy that was in free fall, shedding millions of jobs annually, thanks to the policies of the Republican Party. You also conveniently forget that the Republicans, after being ousted, openly vowed to do everything in their power to cause Obama to fail and obstructed his efforts to improve the economy at every turn.
I also live in Naples and I have seen the effects of Trump's and Rick Scott's "pro-growth" policies. Our wages remain low, our schools are mediocre at best, our marine environment is a disaster, and we have record numbers of kids that depend on free school lunches to meet their basic nutritional needs. And as for a Socialist economy, we've heard that tired refrain before. The Republicans screamed that Social Security and Medicare were socialism. Have you looked around you? The median age in Naples is almost 67. Most of your neighbors use, depend on and love those "socialist" programs. This place would be a ghost town without them.
7
With the revisions on job numbers, it is now very clear that Trump has had a very mediocre first term so far. He is underperforming, except for recessions. Looking over the last ten years, Obama's numbers beat Trump's numbers pretty handily. Now, one could argue that Obama already reached what we used to consider full employment by 2015 or 2016 and that there have been too few workers to fill a lot of jobs since then. However, the mismatch between a continuous expansion of service jobs compared to a lack of growth in manufacturing says that this is not the explanation. Bottom line, if you still think Trump is doing a good job on the economy, you are simply a partisan or ignoring the actual data. Of course, right before the crash, we were hearing idiots crowing about the rising home values and Bush's great economy.
16
I really don’t know why the NYTimes even publishes this article.
First: Anything coming from this administration is questionable at best and purely fictional at worst. In the nearly three years that the trump administration has been playing musical chairs with the cabinet heads and all of the countless misleading comments and outright lies nothing ever stated can be trusted.
Secondly: If any jobs were added you can bet with certainty that they are low-paying, go nowhere, jobs with no benefits. I would estimate that approximately 60,0000 or more are temporary employment positions with the holiday season approaching and 20,000 are short lived positions with the upcoming census.
Thirdly: Do these figures take into account the jobs lost during that time? Why is there never employment data released that shows accurate information in the amount of jobs lost, gained, full-time, part-time, temporary and permanent employment, and wage range figures?
I have questioned ever single jobs report released since trump took office because in the many people, friends and family, I know who are scattered throughout the country they tell me a completely different story. Nearly 3/4 of all the people I know work jobs with unlivable wages and no benefit. Many rely on Medicaid for insurance, or are uninsured because they cannot afford the high cost of insurance. A quarter of them work two jobs just to make end meet.
Reality is far different than the claims made by trump.
12
This period reminds me of a joke dating from the Reagan administration: “There certainly are a lot of jobs. I have three of them.” or maybe it wasn’t a joke ...
1
Keep up the blazing headlines that the economy is faltering despite the numbers and hope against hope the message will finally catch. Following Mueller's failed last dying hope of deliverance, a self inflicted gunshot to the head is still probably better than accepting the awful truth that is called President Donald J.Trump.
4
@John Doe The economy IS slowing down. In the 2016 election Hillary was despised by many, and Trump was an unknown. The 2018 election shows that we now know who Trump is, and he has electrified the Democratic party to unseat him. Turnout is key. Unless the Russians hack voting totals, Trump is done.
9
@Bruce Maier, nothing like taking back the ship only to find that it’s taking on water and the bilge pumps are out. Satisfying victory no less. Manually bailing with really get those employment numbers up fast.
@ John Doe, Obama took back a ship that was half-sunk, bailed it out, righted it, and made critical upgrades to the hull and engine. Trump was gifted a luxury yacht and is speeding it toward iceberg territory in heavy fog fog after dumping all the lifeboats in an attempt to go even faster!
1
Bravo, President Trump. Keep up the good job. We love you.
7
@RMM. So, you like a slowed economy, a faltering Stock Market, low GDP numbers and a President who is easily duped by, and prefers, third world dictators and our enemies? Strange definition of a “good job” for an American.
The article reluctantly acknowledge that “The American economy turned in a decent performance last month as businesses grew more cautious about hiring, according to the Labor Department’s monthly employment report released on Friday.” In fact, the decline of US economy that the political left has been rooting for has not happened. US continues to be robust not only in the abysmally low unemployment rate but in market performance as evidenced by the near record 26,728-point closing of DOW yesterday.
European economists from Deutsche Bank Securities and Oxford Economics are showing the predictable bias against US policies and its continued strength.
President’s insistence that China treats US imports the same way that the US treats Chinese imports is a fair, equitable and sustainable norm. This is not a hard principle to understand but the antagonists of the President calls it by the derisive phrase ‘trade war.’
8
@Appu Nair
"President [Trump]’s insistence that China treats US imports the same way that the US treats Chinese imports is a fair, equitable and sustainable norm. This is not a hard principle to understand but the antagonists of the President calls it by the derisive phrase ‘trade war.’"
Here's an intellectual challenge: try to imagine President Sanders or President Warren getting tough with the Chinese.
6
@acule
‘Here's an intellectual challenge: try to imagine President Sanders or President Warren getting tough with the Chinese.’
That’s a challenge in deed.
China, Korea, Iran, Russia, they would all run circles around them and laugh all the way.
I could not see Warren standing up to a cup of tea, much less to the real world.
1
@Appu Nair. Where was your cheering for Obama as the Market went from 6,000 to just under 20,000 and hit record highs regularly from 2014-2017? As unemployment went from 10%% to 4.9%? And if the Democrat who handily won the popular vote was President, you would be declaring that jobs numbers, GDP and the Stock Market were doing poorly, just as you did under Obama. It is not jard to understand that Republicans, from the leadership to the bottom of the base, are either dilusional or dishonest.
4
People are imprisoned by debt. They have been reduced to the status of indentured servants.
19
@Max Plank ... they made the choice to take on debt ... why can't people take responsibility for their decisions in life?
2
@Max Plank
‘People are imprisoned by debt’
You have your choice. Buy those new pumps you want so much, or save your money.
If you borrow from AMEX to pay for your new Jimmy Choo’s, then it’s not AMEX or Jimmy Choo or Saks’s fault, it is entirely on you.
If you plunked 80k for that new Tesla because you care so much about the environment, then it’s not Elon Musk’s or Chase’s fault, again that was all you.
Same with college debt, if you decided to major in gender studies, do a PhD as a Librarian, attend Julliard despite a lack of talent, or graduate with honors as an English Major for a job that pays 30k/year, then it was entirely you who chose to follow that path.
Of the people I know who constantly cry about their college debt, most of them were all throwing a tantrum that this is the career they wanted to follow, despite all the data showing them they would not be able to repay the debt. At the time you could not talk them out of an 80k college debt for a 30k/year or less job. Now you’re stuck with the bill. Guess who did that? You.
All of them now want to vote Bernie so their useless degree can be paid for by the tax payers and not by them.
Don’t come crying about being imprisoned by debt, when it was all you who dug that hole.
1
Medical debt is not a choice if you care about living. Neither is college debt unless you are already rich or will be satisfied in an unskilled minimum wage job the rest of your life, competing against immigrants willing to work harder. Assuming everyone with debt is some kind of irresponsible compulsive shopper is sick.
3
Is the 500,000 pretend jobs factored in? Are we sure these numbers were not also doctored?
6
Other than that these numbers are close to meaningless-- esp. given the underground economy -- hiring - to what degree is it cyclical? Back-to-school, X-mas shopping, how is tourism doing?-- my friend the tour guide is doing well? -- census hiring to improve the figures...a manufacturing sector-- who knew? we make pencils -- in fact made in USA pencils are better than the others altho I prefer the ones encase in plastic these days...Hard to find a pencil sharpener.. Looked for one in a library yesterday.
1
3.7% unemployment is full employment. Only those not wanting/needing/capable of work aren't employed. It's good news.
7
@Midwest Josh. Tell that to the hundreds of thousands who have dropped off the unemploment rolls because they have given up on finding work. Statistics in a vacuum may serve Republican purposes, but they don’t tell the whole story.
Health care and education businesses
present a distorted picture of growth.
The growth in these businesses is
reported in dollar value. with prices
rising faster in these industries than
the average inflation, growth seems
to be in the dollar value rather than
the demand. How could education
be growing at fast clip when population
is not. Same is true of health care. In the absence of any epidemic, it is hard
to believe more people are getting sick than last year for year on year
growth. Surely, they keep hiring because their revenue continue to
spike with price hikes.
2
businesses reluctant to make investments ...so much for them thar tax cuts
6
Wait, 25,000 of those jobs are temporary for the Census? That begs the question: how many other thousands are temporary in smaller chunks or individually? How many are part-time, insufficient by themselves for supporting a family? Many of them desperation jobs because the economy really is starting to hurt from Trumpublican shenanigans.
There seems to have been a host of dissatisfied under Obama's two terms, who chose to elect Trump out of some kind of desperation, despite unemployment that dropped from a high of 10 percent from Bush to 4.7 percent when Obama left office. The unemployment rate must not be a very good way to measure the economy anymore, if it ever was.
The peasants of Russia had near zero percent "unemployment". Then came the Russian Revolution. The Soviet union had 100% employment. Oops.
"Jobs" is a very vague descriptor. How many of those 130,000 are quality, permanent, full-time jobs? How many jobs will start to go away if the Trump administration's fumblings ultimately fail, the world - including the US - slides into recession, and the effects of climate change keep becoming more and more pronounced?
11
Teachers and aids also started work.
2
@debra But would they be counted as new jobs? I think only if they were just hired, and not just down between semesters.
Looking at the unemployment rate alone be misleading about an economy's strength.
Many jobs have been added to the economy since the 2008-09 recession. However, it's pertinent to ask what type of jobs have been added and in what sectors. If many inefficient, low-value, businesses secure loans with relative ease, there will inevitably be an uptick in employment. Loans will cushion these businesses from shutting down or exiting the market. Add to that, many service industries (e.g. restaurants, cafes) already operate with low profit margins.
Something similar already happened during the sub-prime crisis, when homeowners with unsound financial credentials were able to secure loans, liberally (and criminally) extended by banks. When the housing bubble burst, many defaulted on their mortgages. The rest is history.
Going beyond unemployment figures, we must ask:
1) How many of the jobs added since the previous crisis belong to industries which are not already saturated?
2) How many businesses, which are not efficient on their own, have been extended loans?
3) Will their balance sheets be affected in the current slowdown?
4) How many people are employed in such businesses?
Credit is often given to those who solve a problem, not to those who prevent one before it unfolds. I believe 3.7 percent unemployment is too good to be true.
2
@Jack Where to start?
"Looking at the unemployment rate alone be misleading about an economy's strength."
My guess is you never posted this during the Obama Administration when the "economy is great!". Now it has been bad (now that Obama is gone).
"Something similar already happened during the sub-prime crisis, when homeowners with unsound financial credentials were able to secure loans, liberally (and criminally) extended by banks."
You do recall that Barney Frank, a Democrat, forced the banks to make these loans. he threatened them if they didn't.
The most important statistic mentioned in article is the strong uptick in wages. Democrats bemoan "inequality" yet ignore facts when those earning on the lower end see their pay increase for the first time since before the Obama Administration.
10
@Richard
My post wasn't intended as a political commentary. The economy is very complex, with many indicators changing all the time.
I do not place the blame solely on the current administration, even if I don't support it. The functioning of the economy also depends on decisions made by Congress (as you mentioned) and the Fed.
And yes, decisions (or indecisions) can take many years to have an effect which is felt.
1
Do the new jobs actually provide salaries that pay people's bills and provide benefits that support a reasonable quality of life? If not, they really shouldn't be counted as they are just part of the illusion/delusion of growth in this system of increasing economic inequality and not real growth at all.
291
@Susan exactly. I was going to write the same thing. We need context here. Most jobs these days are low pay which don't support quality of life. Working 50 hours per week + commute to bring home 2k per month, in a competitive field, doesn't pay the mortgage and bills.
70
@Phillyburg
During the Obama years when job growth was touted by the media, I always asked to have the data broken down in terms of new jobs above and below $20 an hour. I still would like to see that data.
60
@Susan: Precisely, Susan! "Employment" does not necessarily translate to "gainful employment", but the Trumpettes refuse to acknowledge this stark reality.
47
The president’s thumbs-on-the-scale trade/tariff war with China is still the major economic story.
Because of his pie-in-the-face “handling” of the levers of finance, when the damage finally arrives, as it must, we’ll all look back and wonder how he could have messed it up.
When the “no confidence” note comes due, he’ll spin it. And 40% of Americans will believe it. And when those temporary Census Department Jobs (my wife and I had them in 2010), what then?
His desperation is showing. That 3.7% unemployment figure had less to do with his “stewardship” than it does the final leveling-off that happened on his predecessor’s watch.
155
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18
"His desperation is showing. That 3.7% unemployment figure had less to do with his “stewardship” than it does the final leveling-off that happened on his predecessor’s watch."
Sorry but Obama's labor participation rate was historically bad. THAT is what President Trump inherited.
7
Obama inherited a shot sandwich. Trump inherited a five course gourmet meal.
34
@Richard, just look at the unemployment rate graph in the article. Do you see any significant change when Trump was elected? Obama didn't cause the recession.
8
130 thousand new jobs, 20 thousand of which are temp census jobs. That leaves the actual number of new jobs...real jobs...at 110 thousand. And how many of those real jobs are also temp or burger-flipping with no benefits? No, the economy is not soaring, it's faltering now that Trump owns it.
12
Teaching, teacher's aids, safe passage, etc. Next month won't have that boost.
2
WHILE THE NUMBERS FOR The month of August show improvement, the figures are misleading, as the 3 and 7 month aggregates (i.e., "averages") indicate a downturn. The figures from a single month do NOT represent a pattern or trend. However, the 3 month figures may represent a trend, while the 6 month figures clearly represent a trend, headed in the direction of a recession. The manufacturing industries had a modest increase in one sector and a loss of jobs in mining. Mining--the area where Trump made a lot of noise about increasing job opportunities. I hope those who believe his con, wake up to realize they were deceived. The service areas showed increases in jobs. But they do not manufacture goods than can be exported. The Fed may consider another rate decrease. But Trump's LOSING trade wars result in a more powerful economic effect than the record high employment levels. Over the next year, the impact of Trump's tariffs are estimated to have the effect of increasing prices to the average family of $1,000 per year. Well, that's Trump-a-nomics for you! Trump's father had to bail him out of his business failures to the tune of $1 billion over a decade. The bill to the US taxpayers is measured in TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS. Red ink as far as the eye can see. The benefit being, of course, that red is the GOPper's color. How ironic! Red used to signify communism!
6
@John Jones
I see you ignored discussing the wage increases that Obama never achieved.
The trade war, which China started long ago, is temporary. President Trump just happens to be the President who will fight for us. Given you probably never mentioned Obama's failure on China my guess is you want China to win just so that President Trump, and the United States as a whole, loses.
4
@Richard
I've read three of your responses so far and all I've seen is "But Obama!" and claims about his economy with no support, and baseless assumptions about the person to whom you are responding.
We are discussing the current economy and the current president. Why are you demanding that we talk about the previous president.
5
A key caution is that 25,000 of the added jobs were temporary census workers. So the “real” figure is only a tad over 100,000.
11
25,000 of them were hired for the census.
10
Musgrave pencil is being hurt by tariffs? Because of tariffs on wooden slats? It is way more being hurt by cheaper labor in China. Musgrave pencil has to pay workman’s comp and unemployment insurance. Chinese companies do not. And they say right in this story that they can’t pay their employees allot cause they have to compete with Chinese labor.
So the effect of the tariffs would be that Musgrave will be able to charge more for pencils and pay their employees more. They wood buy wood slats from local producers who then can pay their employees more. And I will have to pay more for my pencils. I am okay with that.
3
@Jim.... "And I will have to pay more for my pencils. I am okay with that."....Of course the problem is that if you pay more for pencils or whatever, you will have less money available to buy anything else. When you and others cut back on the amount you purchase, the number of workers required will decline and people will lose their jobs, which means they will have to cut back on what they purchase. And so it begins. It is a vicious cycle.
3
@W.A. Spitzer
Progressives often proclaim that they are willing to pay more for [fill-in-the-noble-cause]. The minute they lost their real estate tax deductions, however, they sang a very different tune, despite the fact that middle Americans received tax cuts since their national average property taxes are under $4K.
Now that we are finally standing up to China, they complain about increased prices. And suddenly they're concerned about farmers, whom they routinely disparage as greedy subsidy takers.
3
@AACNY...TPP was a better way to deal with China. Unfortunately nuance and subtly is often lost on the American public.
4
First graph goes from 2017 to 2019, bar graph.
Second graph goes from 2014 to 2019, line graph.
Third graph goes from 2007 to 2019, line graph.
This makes the graphs hard to compare. They should all be line graphs going from 2007 to 2019.
3
I wonder what the jobs numbers would be if the millions of off the books jobs held by illegals were counted? What would happen to the wages of low end American workers and legal aliens if illegals were excluded from employment by unscrupulous employers? Something to think about.
6
@antonio Gomez....The underground economy of both legals and illegals is significant.
@antonio gomez not just illegals hold under the table jobs... I bought a business in 2012 and when I took over and converted my four employees to regular employees with fica and fed and state tax being paid even though I gave them all a raise from 6$ an hour cash to ten$ you would have thought the world was coming to an end. I ended up firing all within months due to the theft of money and product. They were all natural born Americans and couldn’t be more white so please stop with the stereotypes
5
@antonio gomez by the way Antonio my grandkids last name is gomez as well
This is incorrect of course. Trump promised 4 percent growth throughout the “eight years” of his presidency. These numbers have been fudged.
Where’s that sharpie....
9
@Paul McGlasson Actually, the numbers under President Trump are always revised upwards later. Under Obama they consistently were revised downward.
3
@Richard
You are incorrect.
"In a stunning announcement, The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the official payroll numbers in 2018 and 2019 were vastly overstated. It turns out that the amount of new jobs created were tremendously inflated and had to be reduced downwards by more than 500,000 jobs."
"According to the Associated Press, 'This was the sharpest downward revision in jobs totals since 2009, when the economy was just starting to emerge from the Great Recession.'”
8
To root against the economy because of one's distaste for a single officeholder is shameful.
9
@Frunobulax
We can survive a recession...I don't think our democracy will survive 4 more years.
4
@Frunobulax Was it shameful that the Republicans openly admitted they wanted to see Obama fail in everything he did, including his efforts to address an economy in free fall?
5
Frunobulax, comments are not simply a reflection of "distaste for an officeholder." Comments are indicating possible, likely probable options for & of facts. Not fake news....Logic. I am so tired of the constant tit-for-tat mentality in which both Republicans AND Democrats participate. We all need to grow up & work towards a compromise. Don't make me come down to the Capitol & take each one of you to the Woodshed for a spanking! Please.
A decent economic report produced by pro-free Republican policies, and leftists fall all over themselves to find the clouds among the silver lining, while praying for a recession.
How do we as a country produce such mean, small people?
7
Which "leftist" is @Brenda referring to? Is it Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust in Chicago? A moment's search shows that "Carl is a member and past chairman of the American Bankers Association Economic Advisory Committee, the National Association for Business Economics, the Conference of Business Economists and the North American Asset/Liability Management Association. Carl also serves on the board of Working in the Schools (WITS), a literacy organization that supports the Chicago public school system." This doesn't sound "leftist" to me.
How do we as a country produce people who don't even support their claims with facts?
12
@Brenda..."leftists fall all over themselves to find the clouds among the silver lining,"....Sort of like what Republicans did when the Obama Administration grew the economy year after year. And by the way the Obama Administration accomplished that economic growth while reducing the budget deficit by $700 billion dollars; while in just three years the Trump Administration has increased the budget deficit by $400 billion dollars.
10
@Brenda:
"How do we as a country produce such mean, small people?" I take it you mean Trump, right? Is he not the epitome of mean and small? Concentration camps on our borders; compulsive lying; dishonoring veterans; constant bragging; advocating violence on his endless circuit of rallies; alienating overseas allies; blinding ignorance of US history, customs and traditions. Or do you not care about any of that?
1
Trump has focussed on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the USA. He's not only failing to do it, he's tax on consumers reduces our ability to buy services.
A trillion dollars of government deficit spending, mostly a transfer of publicly owned institutions and wealth to private companies is propping up an economy that produces lots of low paying jobs. Americans are working very hard for relatively low wages, poor public education, less health care, a failing public infrastructure and increased liability from de-regulation.
Trade policy is likely to continue to reduce demand for US produced products around the globe and make the stuff we buy more expensive further eroding our ability to buy services.
Despite terrible policy and leadership both in the USA and spreading globally, most Americans continue to work very hard, for low wages to improve their lives. Some of them are so brilliant they will drag us forward into the future despite terrible public policy.
Imagine what we could be with the resources our public sector is squandering under this administration backed by a Republican controlled Senate?
9
The net total is 105,000 when you take in consideration the 25,000 temporary jobs.
Look at the last 8 months of the graph and everyone sees a large drop. That is an actual trend.
Manufacturing jobs were this President's huge promise and he's not delivered. I know I'm changing my lifestyle to spend less.
10
This has definitely been the case for my family. We've cut our spending on clothing, and food. Trying to keep less food from spoiling by keeping less of it on hand. Also making more stews and less meat-focused dishes. Not eating out at restaurants at all for the next few months. Trying to build up reserves on cash. The goal is to buy some properties if the economy takes a dive.
10
@Alex Sorry to hear your family is struggling. I want everyone to do well. However, as your liberal friends have stated above anecdotal evidence is not sound data. Wages are increasing. That is fact. The only way that happens is favorable conditions for supply and demand. The conditions are very favorable.
4
The monthly jobs report is perhaps the most poorly reported and understood metric issued by the government. It always needs all sorts of caveats and, just as troubling, the numbers are often reduced significantly in follow up reports.
If you want a clear indicator of economic conditions, you should focus on service vs manufacturing job numbers, as well as full vs part time jobs. Without these two data points, the jobs report is essentially meaningless.
10
Now is the time to do the neoliberal economist ("expert") thing, define it "full employment", and call it a day.
2
It is outrageous that the Fed is aiding and abetting Trump’s Trade war by lowering already low interest rates-Trump would love no interest rates at all-essentially free money.I cannot remember a Fed which accommodated a president” s trade War.I would be interested to know if this has happened before so,I am disabused of the notion that this is aberrant behavior on the part of the Fed.
8
@JANET MICHAEL I have news for you. The U.S. has been in a "trade war". President Trump just happens to fighting back for YOU and ME. That's his job. Given you said nothing about this issue during the Obama administration (no liberals did) my guess is you want China to continue their unfair trade practices that hurt Americans.
4
@Richard
This is often missed. Americans want the president to defend the US against China's practices. They have watched president after president just accept that China will take our lunch money. They are not going to turn on him because he's doing the right thing, and they know it.
4
@Richard-we have been in a trade stalemate-trade issues are negotiated, ideally with a group of trading partners-this trading poker-I’ll see you and raise you one is not helpful-ask the farmers whose market has disappeared.
2
The economy is booming. There are thousands of jobs around the country that are available if people want them. Yet, the media keeps saying, hoping for a recession. This President, for all his flaws, has done the job on the economy.
8
@Julia Reports of booming economy aside, my own observation is that it is still nearly impossible for someone who is entering or re-entering the job market to find a job that is full-time, pays benefits and is not effectively a temp position. I've seen too much of this to give any praise to a President who has made no real change to what President Obama set in motion.
20
@Sharon Marsh Roberts Your own observation is an anecdote and not valid data. The fact is that wages are increasing.
2
@Sharon Marsh Roberts
These low paying jobs are what Trump inherited. At least he's focused like a laser on job growth, which has already led to increased wages and job training by companies that cannot find workers.
Say what you will about Trump, but we are at full employment, and he's got companies focused on workers in a way Obama never did. Hundreds of thousands of workers have been trained thanks to Trump's workforce training initiatives.
4
This job growth is great for all Americans. Give the president his due, as difficult as that might be for some.
10
Businesses no doubt have challenges from trade tensions from the US administration. But at the beginning of the day businesses know this administration is with them, unlike the past administration, with its boot at the neck of businesses.
Growth will be uneven but right now I don't believe there will be a recession. In fact, I think growth will accelerate.
3
@SS: "right now I don't believe there will be a recession", said SS, while whistling past the graveyard.
5
@SS
What part makes you think businesses believe he is with them? If you are a farmer in corn, soy, wheat you have a good chance you went out of business. If you are trying to plan your supply chain how do you do that? If you receive one of his many abrasive tweets do you feel that way? If you are in the green energy field or an educator, a scientist, or in the medi other than fox do feel that way? How do you react when the president “hereby orders” you to leave China? If you are an auto manufacturer what are the standards and regulations going to be?
1
@SS
Under Obama regulations proliferated. Under Trump measures to help small businesses are the focus. The 20% QBID, the family tax credits, lowered tax rates, and a stop to the nonstop creation of new regulations.
Under Trump regulators have to cut 2 regulations for every new one. I think they have actually cut more like 20 for every new one. There is absolutely no reason that regulations should live on into eternity long after they have lost their usefulness.
1
It looks like President Gabbard will be pulling our country out of deep recession.
(She's a smart lady and a quick learner. She'll figure out how.)
3
@BruceM I'm conservative. I find Gabbard the only Democrat candidate that has any credibility. She tells it like she sees it unlike all of the other candidates who check the latest polls first.
Still, Gabbard only has support from 1.4%...of Democrats! She might not win a single state against President Trump when non-Democrats (68% of the electorate) start voting in the general election.
3
@Richard: I agree with some of your first paragraph, but not much at all with the second. Sadly, I doubt she will get the chance to run against Trump. It's just intuition, and thus you and others can dismiss it, but I suspect she would clobber Trump because she's got so much that he hasn't. The list of those qualities is long.
That's a lot of Baristas!
58
@Bob S
And sale "associates" for Dollar Stores, pawn shops, check cashing joints and auto parts stores. All that pay ten bucks an hour. Woo hoo! The economy is hopping!
11
A 3.7% unemployment rate and the headline writer is still compelled to add another headline beginning with, “Still ...,” Now this is just fine if precedent is being followed and if this approach to news (where very good news for the current administration is reported but immediately diminished by some unconnected bad news)is followed in the future. But I suspect it is an approach that, like so many ways the media has treated Trump, is unique. And if that is true, its a very bad thing for our Country.
2
@ehillesum
The fourth estate is being undermined like so many of our valued institutions. Cable news, whether it be Fox or CNN is commercialized opinion mongering.
Am I the only who feels like I'm watching a boxing match (not the news) when I toggle between Fox and CNN?
Worse yet is the propaganda spewed over social media, etc by both sides and who knows whatever foriegn entities.
There was a time, before cable, when we had the likes a Walter Cronkite, David Brinkley, Edward R Murrow. There was also a time when Congress (another institution under attack) valued compromise over tribalism. And the Senate, in particular, recognized it was charged with the task to resist taking sides, to take the long term perspective and the responsibility of doing what was ultimately best overall for the nation. (What a profound disappointment).
In defense of The NY Times, I find it offers the reader the ability to dissect the news and I read it every day. Looking abroad for the news BBC, etc can yield a more objective coverage
@MLB Five channels were better than 55.
Anyone can get a job these days, including people who have been in prison. If Trump can end his ridiculous trade wars he's going to win in 2020, especially if the Democratic candidate is an anti-business liberal extremist like Senator Warren.
5
@BobC
Thousands are being released from prison early (including a close family member) thanks to the First Step Act, which has been largely ignored by the media and democrats. Strange since democrats are the first to talk about mass incarceration.
4
There is no question the job market is slowing. Here in New York employers are hiring less and firing more.
More important: how sure are we that these federal figures are absolutely untainted by Trump? He has been a pathological meddler and would-be czar in all other government affairs.
33
This report says in bold letters that Donald Trump has failed to create the very kind of jobs in manufacturing that he purports to desire. In fact, 20K jobs are temporary government positions for the census.
Through his ill-advised tariffs, DJT has injured manufacturing in this country. He has injured farm income (as evidenced by the fact that he has had to support farmers by means of subsidies to make up for lost markets). Eventually all of this will slow the service sector when the consumers in other sectors have less money to spend and there are fewer jobs.
The handwriting stands on the wall: Trump is running our economy and global economy into the ground just the way he bankrupted his own businesses: through sheer incompetence and ignorance.
The Federal Reserve won't be able to repair this. Only voters can: get rid of Trump and the Republicans and their shortsighted tariff and fiscal policies. Start rebuilding this country with sound economics that benefit everybody, not trickle down and tariffs.
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There is a factor that I saw reported in a different context that is for some reason not mentioned when reporting on the new jobs each month. It likely is affecting both the making and serving sectors; but it occurs to me more so the less vital making sector. And that is the ever increasing production efficiency with less human need due to major technological advances.
I realize that the effect that is having on new job creation could be speculative at beast, however I would think it at least bears as much mention as some of the factors mentioned as possibly inflating the numbers. Right? If not, why not?
4
As someone pointed out, many could be low-paying second jobs with no insurance of any type.
As I recall, when people stop looking for jobs (older people, for instance) the unemployment rate goes down. They're not on Unemployment - it doesn't have to mean more people got jobs.
43
Please consider that when reporting unemployment rates, the "real unemployment rate" should be reported concurrently. This gives the reader a more realistic picture of the proportion of our population that is not working.
27
@MBG
The good news is that many of those sidelined middle-aged males who sat outside the job market for years are now being brought back into the workforce. One of the greatest feats of the Trump Administration, in my opinion. It was a crime that they were languishing like that.
2
130,000. Huh. I guess the loser really is creating jobs, one Stormy hush-money-installment dollar at a time.
2
With record national, consumer, corporate, student debt and an insane global trade war by Trump the end will come.
The only question is when and how bad.
Demagogues always ruin their country economically .
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What exactly are these "jobs"? Hourly? Blue/white collar?
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@Anne
How about coal mining?
Reporting that the unemployment rate is 3.7%...a 50 year low, is about as accurate an economic gauge as going to a fortune teller. As the joke goes, I can believe that 150,000 jobs were added. I have three of them.
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@James Barth ha! My husband and I work full time plus 3 side jobs. It's insane just to get by. And we live within our means.
22
@Phillyburg
One year ago, the NYT reported that there were 6 million unfilled jobs, and the Trump Administration had created the Council for the American Worker, which got commitments to train workers from companies like Walmart, Microsoft, FedEx, Lockheed Martin, AT&T, and the National Retail Federation and Associated Builders and Contractors.
Yahoo Finance did a piece on their commitments. Lockheed pledged to create 8,000 new jobs for skilled workers over the next five years. Walmart pledged to train over 1 million over the next 5 years and has already trained 200,000. FedEx pledged to train 512,000, also providing tuition assistance.
1
@AACNY
What do the 1 million skilled workers do at Walmart? Buyers, supply chain people, finance?
currency manipulation?
Lots of this to me is very vague? God is in the details.
Good point- robots can do the lower end jobs...
9
How about raising the minimum wage then if things are so great?
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Given the temporary nature of the 25,000 census jobs, the recent downward adjustments after monthly reports and the number of jobs that are second and third jobs for individual workers, this report is not too exciting.
38
Another strong jobs report even as we battle our nemesis China.
August is a traditionally slow month.
Excellent job President Trump.
9
@Tom ,Retired Florida Junkman Did you not look at the very clear graphs above? Private sector job growth was about 105,000, about half of the average over the pre-Trump years. Those tax cuts, which have exploded the deficit, were supposed to bring 3-4% growth and expanded corporate investment. Growth is down around 2%, corporate investment is shrinking, the manufacturing sector is already in recession...why is it so difficult for Trump supporters to read and understand graphs and numbers?
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@Tom ,Retired Florida Junkman Excellent job, President Trump! You achieved the same number of job creation as in January-to-August 2011! 200-500k lower than 2012-2018! And at the small cost of a $1.5 trillion in tax cuts for the rich, leading to a one trillion yearly deficit, good job really. A+.
Next year let's praise him for only having a small recession, not a big one.
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@Tom ,Retired Florida Junkman
The big question is whether we should hand over our economy to a radical democratic candidate who will throw a monkey wrench into things by rapidly expanding multiple government programs. The uncertainty would be worse than it is now with China.
3
The headline should read: US adds X jobs that are full time, pay a living wage, and include health insurance.
That X value would be MUCH lower than the current number, which I will wager are largely non-permanent, low-paying jobs that DO not include insurance.
What are the actual facts?
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@john. I wonder if that is how they report jobs in Mr Trudeau’s Canada? I suspect not.
12
It's easier in Trudeau's Canada: they just report the full time ones, like any other developed country.
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@john: Problem is that X would quite possibly be a negative value if computed as you suggest. Therein lies the rub.
15
Unemployment didn't change because people need to take the new jobs as their second or third job. The growth doesn't help when the jobs are low-wage and can't support cost of living.
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@Tyler Only full-time jobs are counted, actually
4
It would be interesting to know the average hourly wage of manufacturing and service workers. While many laud the low unemployment numbers, one imagines that many of these low paying jobs ( $10 up $2 from a year and a half earlier due to competition. But that’s the ceiling) fall below the poverty level and require government subsidies to live.
And those subsidies are being cut as we speak.
So, what will happen to these millions of working poor when their support system is cut out from under them?
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@It's About Time
That extra $2 gets eaten up by cost of living increases for most, I'm sure.
10
@It's About Time: "So, what will happen to these millions of working poor when their support system is cut out from under them?" Short answer? They'll have to cut spending, and in a consumption-based economy that will be a very ugly dynamic.
2
@Melinda Johnson At our local McDonald's, the #2 breakfast combo went from $3.79 in March to $5.71 today - slightly greater than 50% INCREASE. But we are told there is low inflation (on things that don't matter).
3
Why do we want to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. when they only pay $10/hr? This is not enough to live on.
29
The market sell-off passed, and the DOW is over 26,000 again.
The hurricane passed.
As now this - unemployment remains at a 50 year low.
What’s a progressive to do? Biden has blood coming out of his eyes, and isn’t playing with a full deck. Next in line is Warren. Liberals can tell themselves America wants socialism, but we don’t. And just because they’ve memory holed her little 40 year stunt of claiming ethnic minority status for professional advancement doesn’t mean Trump will.
In short, Trump is going to win by a landslide. I think his second win is going to be more glorious than his first was.
17
@Ben. I agree with you but with one caveat: I worry that the President’s lack of discipline, which has seemed to be more evident lately, will cause a significant number of his voters—who like his policies but are tired of the drama (even the fake drama created by the Dems and the MSM) that they hear about every day, to not vote. He has a tendency to shoot himself in the foot with his tweets and I fear he could lose despite the economy.
2
So what we have here is one giant hyperbole about the markets, one completely ridiculous claim about Dorian, and then some rehashes of Trump’s silly bit about blood (I guess Joe Biden’s a girl now), the usual socialist suspects, and bragging about an election that’s more than a year away.
This in response to a so-so jobs report.
Okay, thanks. A classic.
22
@Ben
Well done. You may collect your stipend.
4
Am I the only one who thinks that that is a rather low number when considering the population of our country?
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That is an abysmally low job report.
It does not cover growth in population, which requires 150,000 plus per month
Given how sharply downward the 2018 numbers have been revised it is highly likely it is even worse than it looks
This is another indicator that Republican policy, as always, is crippling the economy they were left by Democrats and is plunging toward recession
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@John
Did you miss the part about the record low unemployment?
The economy is rigged for the top 1% but let's not be overly-reactionary toward every piece of news.
4
@MC Except, he is describing the realities of math. Population continues to grow so the job number must grow as well. Stagnate job number are essentially to falling job numbers when compared against population growth.
As others have pointed out what are the job description details?
10
@John - Spot on.
Sat with some hometown friends in a small semi-rural Illinois community last month.
They crowed about the jobs numbers, and the (roller coaster stock market).
When I asked, "Where are people working, here?" and inquired as to why the town had vacant store fronts, vacant houses with lawns of tall grass and weeds, and heavily pot-holed streets, they gave me blank stares.
Their answers, after some thought, could best be described as "people are employed somewhere else." As in: "The jobs, the great economy, that's somewhere else. And wherever that is, things are great!"
If my anecdotal hometown sampling means anything, there is a true cognitive dissonance outside or cities, in which true economic success is not the measuring stick. At the bottom of the conversation, it becomes readily apparent those well-meaning folk are all about revenge: they've finally got someone in the White House who "feels" them; even if they, too, are being harmed in the process. Despite facts, including their ready admission he's a liar and a crook (something my friends readily and openly proclaimed), nothing is going to deter them from pulling the lever for Trump in 2020. They will happily go down with the ship.
This should worry us. All of us.
11
How many jobs were lost? Doesn’t it make sense to post both new jobs and lost jobs?
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@George Boccia from Hallowell, Maine. We are in fall now. summer only jobs are probably lost.
2
@George Boccia This is the aggregate. No, it doesn't really make sense to post both. People would single one out. Like they do with immigration.
5
So if 130,000 new jobs are created but say zero jobs are laid off, that isn’t important to know? Aggregates do not tell the story accurately.
4
Glad to know that the labor market is strong and unemployment rate is at a 50-year low and another 130,000 of our fellow Americans of all races, national origins, all religions and genders have found jobs in August.
7
@Girish Kotwal As you sing high praise for the jobs report there are many more data points in the report that you should review.
For instance, how many jobs were in the service sector that are traditionally low paying.
How many jobs are seasonal, meaning they disappear when the jobs are complete.
Be careful in believing the report present a glowing picture.
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@Dan from Sandy, UT. Are you questioning this report in NY Times? Job is a job and provides dignity to those who have won. If wishes were horses beggars would ride. One does not always look at a gifted horse in the face sometimes you just ride it. In the current job market if you don't like a job you can find one you like. So what you are analyzing is only for arm chair analyst not for some one who has to put food on the table and make ends meet.
3
@Girish Kotwal I question the report in its entirety as not presenting the total picture. Read my comment again.
True, a job is a job that provides dignity. However, when many need more than one job to put food on the table, the jobs report is incomplete.
2