As a libertarian/conservative who rolls his eyes at the “Russia hoax,” I have never been "in danger of dismissing the reality that there is a Russian plot against the West — an organized effort to use hacks, bots and rubles to sow discord in the United States and Western Europe."
Long before the 2016 election, I was poking fun at obvious Russian trolls and bots in the New York Times's comments sections. They were probably working out of the Russian troll factory at 55 Savushkina Street in Saint Petersburg that had been "outed" a short while before. Their klutzy writing and slavish adherence to Putin's party line gave them away every time. Funnily enough, when I made humorous remarks about their likely identities (like asking what the weather was like in Saint Petersburg) the Times censored my attempts at humor.
So you can imagine how I laughed out aloud when Democrats started making charges that Russia had stolen the election for Trump. What a bunch of sore losers, and what a pathetic alibi for failing to defeat Donald Trump, I thought -- and continue to think.
Look, it's very easy. The idea that Russian trolls were doing anything to us that we weren't already doing to ourselves is flat out ridiculous. Of course, the Russian conspiracy is real. And laughably ineffective. So let's move on.
21
Marianne Williamson is right about the sickness-care system of this country, which promotes sickness for profit, just as the in-justice system prison system promotes imprisonment for profit.
22
Conspiracy?
AG Barr can huff and puff, all he wants but this debacle is all his fault even if he wants to blame federal prison guards and administrators.
The federal prison system is seriously understaffed and Barr turns a blind eye to his failure to hire the needed level of staffing needed to guard our federal prisons.The buck stops with him and not with Trump deflecting from that with his imbecility about the Clintons killing Epstein.
When you have secretaries, nurses and plumbers guarding prisoners, then you have a serious problem and you solve it way before Epstein commits suicide.
To do otherwise is to become the failure that you are scape goating others for.
22
Did Bill Clinton (want to) go to war with Iraq because of Monica? Can't prove it but not impossible. Does Trump deliberately rule by chaos? Yes, but can't be proven. It can be recorded and discussed, as history will do, but proof will never be accepted by many. Did Epstein commit suicide? Knowing what I know from visiting prisons (how inmates, guards, captains all work), I would say that all issues point to no, that this was staged/forced if not murder. Does that mean the well-connected that he had dirt on had something to do with it? I think so, but it will never be proven. And that's the rub; whoever planned it knew the conflicting narratives would be all the protection needed. Criminal minds (in all walks of life) are often pretty good at what they do.
To me, what sits the most heavy, is how deeply corrupt we are individually and as a nation. Sorry for the heaviness but everything about this is exhausting. I can't imagine what the victims feel, but I would imagine fear is part of it.
30
@PS And Barr asking for an internal investigation? That's laughable.
12
Reading this author op adds make me believe in the UFO. The problem is that they left him here intentionally..
8
Barr can suspend two guards and reassign the warden but this isn't going away. Wealthy men on both sides of the aisle want it to go away and Barr will do whatever he can to make them happy. The facility that housed El Chapo, John Gotti and a 9/11 plotter can't keep a pedophile alive long enough to make it to court? it is evident that no one seems to care how ridicules their explanation looks to the country they are sticking with their story. One guard and a drafted Guard for a Day is responsible for this fiasco? People are thinking big money greased the way for the demise of Epstein and maybe the old saying is really True. Dead Men Tell no Tales. Trump trying put some of the blame on Clinton is along the lines of The Dog ate his Homework.
42
At a minimum I believe that he was allowed to kill himself. He had already either tried or been attacked like he claimed. There is just no excuse for his having been allowed to die regardless of the cause. Too many powerful people men including the president had reason to want him dead. As for Barr I think he doth protest too much. After the way he lied for the president his motives are suspect too...
40
Assuming that he killed himself for the sake of his co-conspirators leads to a logical paradox that I believe fundamentally disproves the conspiracy.
On the one hand, if he was NOT willing to testify against them, then why kill himself for their sake. Why not simply not testify? On the other hand, if he was willing to testify against them, then why would he kill himself for their sake. In such a scenario, he would put his perceived interests ahead of theirs, and testify in exchange for a decreased sentence.
This paradox implies that his actions were taken independently and irrespective of his co-conspirators incentives and interests. Thus, I believe it is highly unlikely that a larger conspiracy is at play here. Some of the accused co-conspirators are shady—I have dealt with them; however, the facts of the case seem to suggest that his action were taken without their prodding.
4
As an ex-Fed, I am aware that staffing and oversight problems have bedeviled every Federal MDC since the dawn of time. It's likely that a hiring freeze made things, if possible, even worse. The sloppy handling of Mr. Epstin's mental health "issues" is perfectly, perfectly par for the course. Unless a new Deep Throat emerges and passes a lie-detector test, to parlay the tragedy - for that's what every suicide is - into a murder conspiracy is, well, looney.
9
Mr. Douthat is simply stating that charges against someone or something need evidence to back up the claims.
5
Excellent opinion article. Thank you for bringing attention to what should remain the main focus in the midst of multiple attempts to prevent us from investigating the facts and finding the truth. In the absence of the possibility of knowing the truth through Epstein directly, everyone else with the slight involvement in his ways of maintaining influence, resources, wealth and especial privileges with the law must be investigated thoroughly. Since the very first article about Epstein came out this year, I asked myself: how does a billionaire allow Epstein to "miss-appropriate" his assets, without allegedly knowing or holding him accountable once his deeds became known? He never sued him for it like anybody else would in his place.
13
Do you remember the victims of Larry Nasser reading their impact statements to him in court? Telling him face to face how his actions traumatized them for life? That is a part of our justice system. The victims of Epstein were denied that. This is the real news about Epstein's death. Please don't let conspiracy theories. distract from that. 5
16
What about the L Brand owner who mentored Epstein?
9
Re the “Russian hoax,” why is it “hysterical” to observe that the Trump administration - at least the top of the pyramid - is in firm denial about Russia’s interference in our elections?
People SHOULD BE hysterical, at least those who don’t relish a repeat, or even the first term, of that same administration.
17
It's pretty clear that Epstein had serious incriminating evidence on very prominent people from presidents to British Royals and many more....A Death Foretold once he was gobbled up by the Federal System... Investigate until the cows come home and the Major Figures....will skate away free as birds. ..
18
A corrupted law, corrupted government, untruthful power requires conspiracy, correct? Trump's power is a blatant example of an enormous effort at Playing Dumb, is it not?
Hopefully William Barr will play bagpipes at the funeral, because that is worth everything!
6
While my vote is still on sheer incompetence at the jail as the ultimate cause, it is still baffling to me that they could successfully protect El Chapo and Bernie Madoff at that facility, but not Epstein.
24
Frankly, I find this article to be wish washy at best. I would say that the #ClintonBodyCount is likely another Twitter effort to distract from some very actual conspiracy based on actual allegations vs. a fallacious hypothesis without any fact based precedent.
If you had the least journalist bone in your editorial body, you would begin with looking at the Proximity of Trump's retweet of the Clinton/Epstein conspiracy and then ask yourself the question, "why is he doing this?"
Let's be specific here and not speak to conspiracies but to contextually viable allegations by real people instead.
Why don't you start by looking at an articlefrom the Justice Integrity Report entitled "New information emerges in "Maria" Trump story". If you want to get a court filing, why don't you look up the actual case filing on scribd entitled "Doe V. Donald Trump" and which further references the following: Case 1:16-cv-04642-RA Document 1 Filed 06/20/16 In the United States District Court Southern District of New York "Jane Doe, proceeding under pseudonym, Plaintiff v. Donald J. Trump and Jefferey E. Epstein, Defendants.
Why don't you look what we learned about his behavior and consistent pattern of coverups and obstruction around ex-porn start Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal and everything we've learned?
Why not examine and interview victims, read an article entitled "a Playboy Model, and a System for Concealing Infidelity" in the New Yorker? Theory? No.
19
Here's a another conspiracy theory to add to the heap:
Given the fact that simply having a name mentioned as part of a DOJ investigation will ruin many reputations, Barr will use his investigation into Epstein's death to shake-down rich and powerful who may oppose Trump and/or extort funds for Trump and GOP re-election campaigns.
Given Barr's propensity for twisting facts to suit his Master and the GOP's "power at any cost" approach to modern politics, I expect him to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the opposition.
61
@Jay G I believe that Barr's own father was involved in hiring Epstein to teach children at a prestigious high school. Maybe the neutralization process should start there.
26
@Jay G Barr will be shielding Trump for sure, and likely implicating his rivals. Mitchell and Richardson will likely go down, Dershowitz will be protected.
16
They were not sex slaves. They were exploited teenage girls.
17
I think this article is kind of spot on. By definition, at this point, conspiracy theories are false. So many have been effectively debunked. But, history shows us, that those in power are constantly conspiring to do something, hide it from general knowledge, and thereby get power or protect power.
Read Shakespeare.
As for UFOs , their reality is now beyond question. As for a concerted government cover up of their reality, along with elaborate efforts to discredit people who have experienced them, that is also beyond question. But as for the claim that the DoD has reverse engineered the technology of crashed UFOs, this is closer to the murky brew of speculation in which conspiracy theories are hatched.
But Epstein’s suicide is a highly questionable development. The rush to label the speculation as crazy conspiracy theories is surely premature. It has the look of a murder, for sure, and a lot of very powerful people benefit from having Epstein dead. As with most such cases, we will probably never know, and will have to settle, as with the Kennedy assassination, for explanations that do not entirely satisfy.
13
Jeffrey Epstein is proof that a good God does not exist.
4
Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. Just keep to the facts. Who was flying to the Island? Check the pilot logs and cross reference with the 2000 pages of documents released in federal court this past Friday. And most importantly, follow the money trail. ALWAYS FOLLOW THE MONEY, it will take you to the truth.
23
Great point! Seems like you almost believe-you WANT to believe-but that rational part is saying, "naaaah." But the tone at the end of your piece suggests you, too, are drifting toward believing what is becoming, apparently, what's real.
4
What Marianne Williamson is talking about is not conspiracy. The US has polluted air, water and soil. That is proven science. Americans have inflammatory conditions because of all of the ways we eat corn, wheat and soy. Functional Medicine takes all fo this into account when treating someone. It is not woo- woo nonsense.
13
Here is my understanding.
This reporter would take the Russian/Trump conspiracy seriously. But he would think it nonsense to explore the FISA warrant. If it helps his politcal philosphy, it is good. If it hurts, it is bad. There is no real reasoning - just points to support what he already beleives.
I really don't care about the Epstein conspiracy - and I don't think it makes a difference to the reporter, either. But certainly we should explore it,
As far as Trump making hay out of it. Good. After the Russian nonsense, he gets a freebee.
2
If Trump gets a "freebee" for the Russia Nonsense, what does Obama get for the Birther Nonsense?
17
Great Article, well done.
5
Epstein's crimes must be exposed ; however vile they were;
whomever was involved....: and the US Supreme Court must
as the court of last resort set a precedent against sex trafficking.
William Barr's father got Epstein a job teaching high school
students at Dalton School, NYC.
All who were tied to Epstein cannot be covered up...
Prince Andrew: Bill Clinton: and especially Donald J. Trump.
and Professor Alan Dershowitz….
So NYTimes...no cover ups no excuses ; only rhe best investigative journalists need be put on the job of cleaning out
this Trump ...Rat Ridden Swamp that festers in Washington D.C.....Go For it....Editors...…..and if Kavanaugh acts like
a hypocrite ...well maybe he is one.
18
One of your best and most insightful columns ever, Mr. Douthat!
4
A very thoughtful and well-written article, Mr. Douthat!
6
CONSPIRACY! When I saw the photo, the day before the suicide, of the young girl that was supposedly a sex slave of Epstein's standing next to PRINCE ANDREW, I was actually shocked by that photo. Then we heard - SURPRISE! - about allegations against Bill Richardson and George Mitchell which also shocked me - of all people I wouldn't have expected their names to come within miles of this debauched case. NOW - after already haven given a warning of suicide 2 weeks ago - Epstein's dead and Bill Barr is "appalled". SORRY FOLKS, this stinks of a conspiracy to cover up serious crimes not only of Epstein but of many other high profile people. Outrageous.
19
Epstein's connection to, and possible hold over, so many powerful people certainly gives great weight to the suspicion that his death was the result of either a broad conspiracy, or at least undue influence on the part of one or two influential people. At the same time, though I'm reluctant to believe it, it's entirely possible that the failure to keep an eye on him was nothing more than a case of bad jailkeeping. Will we ever know the full truth? I'm guessing not. What we do know, though, is that this contemptible creep managed to avoid facing justice - albeit by taking his own life, ostensibly - and that he took secrets with him that likely would have exposed criminality and rot among our "elites". To think that we were as close as we were to getting at those secrets, and now they are gone, is infuriatingly frustrating. Until such time as at least some of the truth might be uncovered, all we are left with is the dark, and our theories.
4
Applying Occam's Razor principle from philosophy that states the more assumptions you have to make, the more unlikely an explanation, it seems quite possible that Jeffrey Epstein simply committed suicide because of he no longer wanted to live.
8
Conspiracy theorists have a flaw in their logic. They think that because the government doesn't tell the truth about certain things it means that nothing it says could possibly be true. So they come up with ludicrous ideas, like Apollo 11 didn't land men on the moon or 9/11 was a U.S. government plot. (They must believe that if Al Qaeda attacked us the government would lie and say they didn't.) The fact that the President of the United States shares conspiracy theories is deplorable.
10
It's true that people can't keep secrets, mostly. The idea that more than a thousand people joined in a lie about the Las Vegas massacre without any slips or deviation is patently ludicrous.
The Russia/Trump/Brexit/Cambridge Analytica/Wikileaks connections are facts in evidence and on record so , conspiracy or not, there is 'something to see here'.
Anyone would be suspicious of the convenience of Epstein's death for all those implicated; people who are actually on the same page as far as maintaining a true "elite" group in power and luxury regardless of their minor political divisions.
10
This started as a disgusting story. Now things got really weird. If people weren’t suspicious I would be concerned that we have all fallen asleep. Skepticism is a good things when the things don’t add up.
21
This column is important. Your ideas are clearly stated and your reasoning seems sound to me. I hope many of us incorporate it into our own thinking.
Don’t get cocky.
3
Ross, I like many of your ideas, but please use less flowery language and get to the point! The reason you wrote this article is only addressed in the final paragraphs, and for a reader to get there we have to endure a winding narrative path.
1
“Winding narrative path?” Some people would call that “writing.” I, for one, enjoyed reading it!
6
As my wife’s attorney so aptly put it “ don’t confuse incompetence with mal intent”
4
Am I living in the twilight zone? A former and current POTUS were known to have been friends with a famous child sexual abuser. The current POTUS described him as a great guy, who likes his women on the younger side. The former POTUS gifted an autographed photo. Now, today the current POTUS fuels the unsupported-by-facts conspiracy the former POTUS was involved in Epstein’s suicide. Wake me up when this nightmare is over.
17
We just went through a two-year investigation only to find investigators' hands tied from doing anything with what crimes they found, nor even to call them crimes or name the criminal if he's the current occupant of the Oval Office.
But we didn't need any more than Trump's Tweets to see him sending messages in no uncertain terms to certain co-conspirators that he would have their backs and to others that he would not.
Just the Michaels: Trump threw Cohen under the bus so that man is in jail for paying off alleged mistresses at the behest of Trump before and after his election. Trump fawns over Flynn so that man walks free despite being an unregistered foreign agent actively using his roles in the campaign, transition and administration to serve the interests of foreign governments and sell nuclear power plants to the Middle East.
We all saw Donald Trump say on live TV first, "Russia, if you're listening…," then "I don't see any reason why it would be" that they'd do basically what he asked, despite his son's "I love it" when he got the heads-up and his own cover-up of that episode.
So Trump Tweets during executive time or brays outside a helicopter and we're confused whether it's actually news because we see his M.O.: Send values soaring one day and plummeting the next. Trump nominates the guy who did the Epstein deal—up. Defend him until he withdraws∏—down.
A suicidal man kills himself in federal custody. How big a push, how intricate a conspiracy, do we think it takes?
8
The characterization here of the sources of conspiracy theories is nice. Of course, there is a difference between idle speculation and the justified proposal of hypotheses. Perhaps that is what Ross is saying here. For instance, a vast trove of data justified the hypothesis that there was a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin to sabotage our elections.
Good economists will not accept an economic model unless it contains a credible, cohesive story. The equations behind such a story are often surprisingly simple. The narrative aspect of all of these sources of falsity stands out. Outsiders to power use narrative to make sense of the world. The rich or powerful use narrative to deflect blame or guilt. Manipulators and demagogues use narrative to manipulate their followers (cult). I find the present situation not credible. For example, I never expected to see a white supremacist in the Oval Office, never thought I would ever witness a Congressional body that couldn't care less about treason, corruption, racism, etc. The flailing, erratic, inept, single meme (race), unhinged, untethered, extremist nature of the present administration are anything but a credible, cohesive story. I can sympathize with the average Trumpy. They surely believe in their heart of hearts that things cannot possibly really be this bad.
5
With all due respect, when reading this, “The wild theories are false; even so, the secrets and mysteries are real”, I couldn’t help thinking that it applies to religion.
7
There is the simpler analysis: If we laugh at Trump for being absurd for pushing this conspiracy, we forget how racist he is and how abysmal his El Paso antics were.
For Trump, this is an improvement on the news cycle.
7
A column on conspiracy theories that mentions Fox Mulder but not Fox News. It's gotta be part of some secret plot.
12
No one trusts Barr. And we see through this "round up the usual suspects" stunt as a cowardly attempt to deflect from his -- and Trump's -- ultimate responsibility for this fiasco. Trump has slashed prison staffing numbers from the Obama years by thousands of employees. So now the Trump/Barr duo, who excel in lying and never accepting responsibility for anything, are investigating themselves. LOL. Barr should recuse himself at very least and have a non-political commission investigate this mess. Otherwise, we will assume that Barr again has put his portly fingers on the scales of justice...and our trust in our system will continue to tank.
6
May I just interrupt the discussion to comment on the Fox News ticker in the photo accompanying the editorial:
“ ... bad boy financier Jeffrey Epstein ... “
Seriously? “Bad boy?”
That’s appropriate for Bart Simpson or Dennis the Menace, not Jeffrey Epstein.
23
Why is it that the same journalists who reported that Trump could be indicted if he leaves office in 2021 and Trump would refuse to leave the presidency if he lost, appear to refuse to entertain the idea that Trump/Barr etal. would do anything to suppress Epstein and his connections (I am not saying that Epstein was killed. We don't know what really happened. ). All to say a lot of people have a lot to lose. Let's not forget that Barr and his father also had longstanding connections to Epstein. So why is it inconceivable to think that, if they're in the position to effect change and save themselves, they wouldn't? To reiterate, we don't know what happened (well I assume some must know- not the general public). But this entire Epstein episode is so inconceivable to most of us, that really how farfetched is a conspiracy?
7
Just so grossed out by the Fox News chyron referring to Epstein as "bad boy financier".
16
@Present Occupant
I know. Even "pedophile grifter" doesn't quite cut it.
7
That’s a lot of words, Ross, to say that it’s entirely possible that Epstein was killed to shut him up.
20
I want autographs from all 3 for my bizarre
Photo collection
Prince Andrew , trump, Epstein
Bragging rights ?
1
Anyone else notice the chyron from Fox News in the background of the picture? Epstein is described as a 'bad boy' not as a sex trafficker, criminal and pedophile.
6
I have a theory about who gets caught and punished for their wrong-doing and who doesn't. I call it The Perfect Seven. If an individual can check all seven boxes, then that person can and will get away unpunished with pretty much anything. The seven are: powerful, rich, old, white, gentile, heterosexual, male. Mr. Epstein could only have checked four of those boxes.
3
Given who is in charge at the DOJ I expect dirt to be found on the Clintons a few democrats and exoneration of conservative big donors.
5
So, will someone please explain why the Occupier of Our White House who historically Has spent time and tide with Epstein
AND Who's Primary Psychological response to All issues is the one Labelled Projection..
Why is He retweeting and co sponsiring Horrific Conspiracies?
People are Saying?
Yup.
Occam's razor here.. "Who Has Motive?
8
Supposedly, the term "Conspiracy Theory" and it's connotations as a baseless, unfounded, wildly inaccurate version of reality was promulgated by the CIA as a way of shutting down valid questions about their very real illegal and immoral covert actions and experiments in the US and around the world. Or, at least that's the conspiracy theory about the origin of the modern concept of conspiracy theories.
5
While there is usually an element of truth in such theories, it is perhaps better for the soul 'not' to believe. Be as it may, another tragedy has taken place, morbid and perverse, which the president keeps harping about.
Far more chilling and sinister is a new documentary released to the Public, Mr. Douthat, called 'The Family', where Christ features on a global basis.
It would be an act of kindness on your part to check the above, before dark roots take hold of credulous and gentle believers, who are striving to remove the fog from their eyes in this political and moral quagmire we are living. Trump is depicted as being the perfect 'imperfect vessel', needed, all for the glory of 'Power'.
3
I find it hard to believe that Barr is all over the suicide investigation. I don’t remember him being upset over the sham Acosta deal. I wish he had an iota of caring about the victims instead of giving mouth service. He is clearly trying to control this just like the Mueller outcome. Why so important to him and this administration?
7
@Madrigan, read him out. Unfiltered. Game?
I was surprised you didn't mention the very real conspiracy involving Individual #1 for election fraud. Trump did not give Cohen $420,000 to commit campaign violations for failure to report donations and donors.
Trump's laundered money was used to coverup adultery with two women, two weeks before the election. With the help of the Wikileak dump of Democratic emails hacked by the Russians, the Access Hollywood story was buried, and would have been revived. However, nothing would have buried the relationships over two years Trump had with both a porn queen and a former Playboy Bunny while Melania was pregnant and with a newborn.
This federal felony directed by Trump is not a conspiracy theory, as he is an un-indicted co-conspirator avoiding justice as our president.
9
It's really quite simple, as Ross Perot used to say. Imagine an incompetent airline crew, stupid and some of them drunk. Or sober and reasonably competent,but in over their heads. The plane swoops and dives and yaws. The passengers will pray that the crew is doing this deliberately, that the captain is a hot shot type, that it's a deliberate maneuver to avoid bad weather. The passengers have no choice but to trust they are in capable hands. The alternative, as Rod Serling once wrote, is a panicky insanity.
5
The New York Times should make all comments visible on this important topic.
2
Just how stupid does the government think the American people are?
5
I believe hell has frozen over.
I actually agree nearly 100 % with something Ross Douthat wrote. I'm not sure if this is a good thing, or not!
5
DONALD BARR Gave Jeffrey Epstein his first job at a highly prestigious private school with no formal degree. His son= AG WILLIAM BARR. It's get different but not much weirder than this!
12
Is the conspiracy we have a beyond broken prison system? Because there are numerous NY Times articles making that case. And the excellent Blood in the Water won a pulitzer.
1
Bill Barr has lied to the people in public, in an official capacity, recently.
He cannot be trusted.
His own words have proved that.
11
There were probably only a few hundred men and a few women who wanted to see him dead and his meticulous diary of names and dates gone forever.
4
That is the scary thing about conspiracy theories. They some times turn out to be true.
5
The difference between say, UFO theories and the Epstein theories is that we often hear about rich men preying on young women, and they are usually protected by their rich friends, who are often preying on the same young women. This has been borne out since the beginning of time.
Whereas how many of us have actually seen a UFO?
The only reason anyone is calling it a "theory" is because we have no actual proof. Yet.
4
Revolting to see the stock of JPM soared today. Absolutely no repercussions to their executives involvement with Epstein.
Only in Americs, and only for rich white men
3
Anyone with a smattering of knowledge about the criminal justice system -- arrest, detention, trial, rules of evidence, sentencing (including the history of Epstein's prior plea deal) -- should know that all the conspiracy theories surrounding Epstein's death are bunk. For today's staunch partisans on both sides though conspiracy theories help support their respective world views, and are more exciting and complex than simple facts.
That Epstein and his friends conspired to engage in child sexual abuse is in all probability not a "conspiracy theory," however. Epstein was convicted of such activity in Florida years ago and even the esteemed Alan Dershowitz has admitted in an interview that he partook of some, albeit "innocent," services of a female minor. I surely hope that evidence seized after Epstein's arrest and the testimony of his victims will result in justice for those children who were abused by the powerful people who took advantage of them and Epstein's sick obsessions.
5
This reminds me of “Rosemary’s Baby,” when she seeks shelter at her former obstetrician’s office.
She explains everything that’s happened to her, and says, “Doctor, you’re probably thinking, ‘My God, this poor girl has flipped!’ But I haven’t flipped, doctor. Now and then, there really ARE plots against people, aren’t there?”
7
Interesting...not a word from Douthat about Trump's five-year "birther conspiracy" waged against Barack Obama...
3
Well said. Thanks.
Someday 1950’s McCarthyism and this recent Me Too stuff will be in the same category. “Are you now or have you ever been a sex predator?” If I hear that “brave young woman coming forward with the truth” cliche one more time, I’ll puke. Sure there’s plenty of sex predators, but I doubt that there’s one behind every bush, like some would like us to believe. Women want us to believe they are capable of everything men are, therefore they can lie too.
1
I'm always amused by those who automatically dismiss conspiracy as an explanation for otherwise inexplicable events. American generals planning D-Day, secretly for years, censoring GI's letters home describing their whereabouts lest Germans capture the missives and detect patterns of troop movement? Whacky idea! The Manhattan Project, hidden in plain sight, involving thousands in secret and successful production of the Atomic Bomb? Ridiculous! That whole Ides of March thing with Julius Caesar? Tales of tinfoil toga-wearers, I tell ya! Operation Paperclip? Operation Chaos? COINTELPRO? Weird imaginings of the fevered brains of the powerless! Why does so much of how history actually unfolds frighten mainstream pundits into sophistry and worse?
5
Occam's Razor: Epstein committed suicide of his own accord when the opportunity of being unobserved presented itself. He proved himself a coward upon realizing that despite years of avoiding accountability due to his wealth and access to powerful people that none if it could shield him in the end. Like all abusers and bullies, in the end he's nothing but a quivering sniveling coward.
1
"...(wasn’t, indeed, a proper billionaire at all)..."
Okay, now can you write a column on what a proper billionaire is?
4
No one should question the government narrative of Epstein's alleged "Suicide", because the Times already investigated his "suicide" and are so certain about it, that they wont even say that its an alleged suicide. It doesn't matter to the Times that the FBI and Inspector General just started their investigations into this alleged suicide. It also doesn't matter to the Times that the government will be investigating itself! Can we assume that the Times have the advance copy of the report?
We all know the FBI can be trusted for sure right, because the NY Times says so. It's not like the FBI lied to a judge and used fictitious information to get him to grant a warrant for a wire tap that was expanded to include everyone in a Presidential campaign. Transcripts of those calls were then unmasked by the Obama Administration's Susan Rice and given to operatives in the Clinton campaign. The Times says these are Trustworthy people though.
Though these facts have been reported no one at the Times has called this a conspiracy. The Times has also not asked the obvious question. How many political campaigns did the Obama administration have tapped in his 8 years as President?
Too be fair to the Times, no other news org has asked this either. Apparently John McCain, his daughter Meghan McCain and Mitt Romney never even considered this. Really?
Maybe the Times can organize a seance with John McCain, since he is no longer in danger of committing suicide.
3
"...Shrieking and yelling were heard coming from Jeffrey Epstein‘s cell on the morning of his death..."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jeffrey-epstein-death-cause-latest-cell-guard-shouting-prison-a9055931.html
5
A Podesta-Clinton child porn ring in a Washington DC pizzeria! But that a man with a rifle burst in looking for the kids I'd say what idiot could believe that?
But as we laugh at that gullibility you find that Mike Flynn re-tweeted his son's tweet asserting the 'story'. While aimed at ignorant people, there was a strategy guiding these stories. Epstein may very well been pressured to 'take the easy way out' with prison staff facilitated that ending. What better way to preempt the expected conspiracy theories than to frame them with the most ridiculous ones that came before.
Epstein maintained relationships with super-powerful politicians and businessmen. If any participated in his crimes how panic stricken must they have been? Disclosure of such a crime for men in high positions could be a motive for many . Why did Wexler give Epstein power of attorney? Why not prosecute the discovery of tens of millions of dollars stolen from his estate? Clinton, Trump, Alan Derschwitz, Prince Andrew, so many- what drew such wealthy men to Epstein's estates?
Epstein butlers and maids agree there were massage tables all over the grounds, indoors and out. That hundreds of young girls were lured there. How many girls do you imagine a man in his sixties might need for sexual gratification? While Epstein sat in prison, denied bail, any co-conspirators would certainly be worried their lives were about to be destroyed. This is one conspiracy theory I'm not prepared to laugh off.
8
The first conspiracy theory I recall was regarding a plot to assassinate President John F. Kennedy. It started soon after the President was murdered (I was just a teenager, just) and my friend’s mother related her convictions and beliefs according to what she perceived watching JFK’s funeral on tv. I thought she was a bit off in the head.
There has to be some fact or some piece of evidence, not just how someone “looks” on television, to follow, like Hal Holbrook’s whispered advice to Robert Redford in the film “All The President’s Men” - “Follow the money.”
Watergate demonstrated we can have a corrupt and criminal President who surrounds himself with corrupt people to do his bidding and who abused his powers by conspiring to cover-up his crime and to obstruct Justice. Nixon called the Watergate investigation a “conspiracy” and I believe “a hoax”, but it wasn’t either.
In the Epstein case, there are many odd events - factual events - that raise even an average person's suspicions that something funny was going on. For example, Epstein’s “sweetheart deal” with federal prosecutors in Florida where “someone” in the prosecutor’s office failed to notify the victims (which is a federal crime); the fact Epstein had lots of money and no one knows how he got it; the fact Epstein ran with the rich, the famous, and the powerful and was running a sex trafficking organization, all of which raise obvious questions of blackmail, cover-up, and, yes, conspiracy.
7
'fanciful “Trump has been a Russian asset since the ’80s” machinations'
I don't think that's fanciful. Remember an "asset" is not the same as an "agent." I find it very plausible that Trump has been useful to the Russians for quite some time, even if he didn't realize it himself, he's too stupid.
7
Epstein, Manafort, Trump, and Kushner, Russia, money laundering. Follow the money.
6
Here's a better byline. "Conspiracy Theories, and when to take New York Times Columnists seriously.
Thanks for nothing, Ross.
How about addressing conspiracies that are on a daily basis tweeted from the White House, rather than staying in the safely superficial weeds? No, that would betray your master.
1
OMG..If you in any way 'support' conspiracy theories you do not support the human system of laws, developed over hundreds of years, since the Magna Carta, and before..
Investigative jurnalism is good FOIA laws are good, supporing any and all 'conspiracy theories' is just garbage..So far from language, so close to garbage..
Funny, others heard screaming from his cell. He died by hanging himself while kneeling. Wonder who paid someone and is getting early release from prison for this? And all this before he could implicate Bill Clinton. Interesting how anyone with dirt on the clintons dies.
2
I didn't read your opinion.
I personally have no doubt this was arranged.
look who the A.G. is? A Devil, an evil man.
yeah and one guy killed JFK. right.
3
In another NYT essay about JE, he laments the social norm against sex with the underaged, but the many States laws allowing child marriage suggests that pedophilia among elderly white men in this country is not theoretical.
5
QAnon and Trump's "Clinton body count" are deliberate attempts to distract from the most likely "conspiracy" in the Epstein-death: namely, an attempt by the Trumpophiles to cover up DJT's deep, long-lasting, intimate involvement with Epstein's sexual extravaganzas. We know where the "24 women, 2 men party" was hosted ... Mar A Lago! We know Trump's reputation for sexual predation, bragging, and infidelity.
7
Civilization depends on being able to trust a source for the truth.
Can we count on you to shine a light in dark places, The New York Times?
2
Interesting to see the photo of the Fox News marquee referring to Jeffrey "Estein" as a "bad boy financier" rather than "convicted sex offender."
6
Hmm . . . Just wondering. "Shoot somebody dead on Fifth Avenue." Apparent hanging suicide on Park Row. "One neva know, do one?"
I have to comment on this. The photo on the Fox News building calls Epstein a "bad boy." Incredible, except for it's Fox News. Epstein was a pervert, a predator, a serial rapist. This isn't the teenager sneaking a peak at dad's porn collection. Only Fox News could would minimize Epstein's behaviour to a 'bad boy' level. Disgusting.
6
I keep coming back to Dershowitz and Clinton.......Yeah I get the Area 51 stuff and all...............but still.
No surprise the Fox news ticker labels him a "bad boy financier" rather than an accused child molester.
5
I dislike presenting a simpleton comment to your extensive writing but, It takes a paranoid mind to understand a conspiracy and people do conspire.
1
Gotta wonder if Jeffrey was in Russia for the fabled Ms Universe pageant. Anyone know?
2
Only when the Times says to?
Epstein is not worth all the scrutiny awarded him by the NYT. He is dead news.
4
@NOTATE REDMOND His victims should not be.
4
One can speculate about the many aspects, connections, relationships that existed between Jeffery Epstein and the 'prominents' but what cornered my interest is the immediate interest and attention that Bill Barr has paid to Epstein's suicide.
He has been all over this. I know he is the nominal head of an agency that has control over the Federal prison system but he is far removed from the epicenter of this story and is choosing to inject himself right into the middle of it. Why?
One cannot pick up a newspaper without hearing of Barr's "outrage" "concern", "calls for investigation" his "suspicions".
William Barr has just gone several months with the issue of Trump's conduct being totally cavalier and accepting of the President's unlikely excuses.
Now he's all excited. Why is that?
8
People often say that the reason we have conspiracy theories is because the government lies to us. That is a bit old fashioned, even if there is truth in it.
That trope needs to be updated, because we are all living through a time when there is so much misinformation and disinformation out there...so much fake news...so many false platforms.
On top of this maelstrom of misinformation, we now have a leader who routinely lies to us and uses Fox as a platform for more lies, distortions and misinformation. Then there is Facebook and Youtube and more lies., ans plenty of crackpot ideas that take hold.
I think it is only fair that most people are looking for the truth.
3
When the seemingly impossible occurs, conspiracy theories abound.
Then everyone knows that these conspiracy theories are ridiculous and they are put aside.
But the seemingly impossible did very conveniently happen, and few will accept serial incompetence as the explanation for this convenience.
2
I called up my source in alienland and he/she/? (yes, they have cell phones with off planet roaming because humans are not telepaths and they need a way to communicate) said the Douthat column is just to keep the restive population from wigging out.
He also confirmed the "fact" that Trump's grandpop was transported off the planet and an alien bot was sent in his place to cause chaos in the U.S. If you can't believe that...I don't know what else is true.
BTW he also warned the people waiting to storm Area 51 not to go in, the aliens there don't want to be disturbed and the ensuing carnage will make zombie invasions look like a walk in the park.
1
My mind careened back and forth. What about? and How dare you. But in the end, I can simply write: Best Column to date.
What will tomorrow bring?
Thank you.
2
The biggest argument against Conspiracy Theories is that they leak. The UFO at Roswell is one such example. Even a Canadian Minister of Defense has come out and said the Roswell crash happened. The High altitude balloon experiment is a lie to cover up a lie. In an interview with Major Jesse Marcel before he died he said, "There is no way they were high altitude balloons. I was chief of security at the only Air Force base with a Nuclear Wing. They could not have tested those things without informing me." Major Marcell was the guy on the front page of the newspaper in that famous photograph. He came out just before he died because he wanted people to know the truth. "I'm 80 (plus) years old. I have all of the money I need. What are they going to do? Kill me?"
By the way, it isn't at Area 51 anymore. It's at Wright Patterson.
2
I'm not a paranoid conspiracy theorist, but... You try very hard, Ross, to tag the "liberal" "elites" with some kind of sleaze here but you make the mistake of attributing complex machinations to a phenomenon that is better explained by simple human nature. Nor do your straw men hold up: the Catholic church offenses were hidden and covered-up but that is not remotely the same as "conspiracy", and all those people you would have us believe were surprised... Surprise! They were not.
1
I don't always agree with Ross Douthat, but his opinion piece was dead on, taking a very balanced stance. I am always amazed at the amount of time that people actually have in their schedule to either weave these conspiracy theories or follow same. Once more, now that a particular celebrity predator has ended his own life -can we stop talking about him and his vile extra-curricular activities??
"Yet at the same time it is a simple fact that the U.F.O. era began, in Roswell, N.M., with a government lie intended to conceal secret military experiments;"
Here we go again! Good god, Douthat, that's one of the WORST incidents to pick to make your point. It did happen, despite all the pathetic attempts by the government to deny the REALITY of life off Earth (their ongoing "official position").
The only worse examples you light have chosen were JFK's assassination and 9/11 (Building 7?).
Please.
3
Jeffrey Epstein's status as a plutocrat turned out to be mostly fraudulent, a story not too different from Donald Trump's in key respects. Rich, yes. But plutocrat, no. Investigations and court proceedings await, but I won't be too surprised if it turns out that much of his supposedly vast network for sexual enslavement turns out to be a lurid fantasy. He and Trump both seem like the guys you knew in high school who bragged all the time about the girls they were taking to bed. Misogynistic and abusive towards the unfortunate women who fall prey to them, yes. But conning everyone around them about their sexual exploits just as much as their wealth.
2
Epstein was a high school grad when he was hired to teach at the ultra prestigious Dalton School in Manhattan. The headmaster who hired him was, coincidentally, the father of AG William Barr. And we wonder why people see conspiracies around every corner.
10
Typical conspiracy theories are different from actual conspiracies. Actual conspiracies have actual evidence, as appears to be the case with Mr. Epstein's sex trafficking operation. Regardless of the purpose of any particular conspiracy theorist, however, there is usually a dearth of actual evidence.
4
The great muckraker, I.F. Stone, summed up what we will always know for sure: "Governments lie."
2
Has anyone considered the British MI6 ?
When Harry had that naked fiasco in Las Vegas they shut up the girls and not another picture came out. They carried out that operation within 24 hours.
And, the British monarchy is more fragile right now, with headlines questioning their value after Meghan and Harry said the baby’s baptism was going to be private. The British press had not gone that far since before Princess Diana, back in the Sex Pistols era.
So, I cast a conspiracy vote on the British monarchy, they have been in power for a thousand years, and lots of heads have rolled to keep them in power.
4
You don't like dismissing UFO stories because you think they're supernatural. Secular soul-destroying liberalism is your enemy. Now, do Times readers need to be told, yet again, that those with power are conspiring on a global scale? They already believe this. They're convinced the system is rigged, that world capitalism is a corporate con to enrich the lawless few at the expense of the oppressed many (overlooking the billion lifted out of poverty). Oddly, neoliberalism's beneficiaries are often its biggest foes.
As for drug companies, why, for instance, is there only ever outrage at the price of a novel drug but never thankfulness for the fact that it exists? How many life-saving drugs do U.S. companies produce -- how many more than their European counterparts? We have enough columnists teaching readers, not only at this paper but elsewhere, to loathe private enterprise, big business, and success. Is there any problem that progressives believe is NOT caused by elites?
Finally, Williamson is nuts, as is praising her, as is imagining that Trump contains anything of value that can be easily extracted from the rest of Trumpism. You can't have à la carte populism, I'm afraid. And just as you have over-learned the lessons of the Iraq War, you've become too willing to blame elite failure for almost everything. But, in truth, that failure should be analyzed and contextualized, compared, contrasted, understood; not condemned wholesale and juxtaposed with fanciful might-have-been's.
The Metropolitan Detention Center is taking the fall.
3
your second paragraph sums up the sway of far right on Trump voters. thank you very much.
1
If you apply the pretense of the first couple of paragraphs to the Democrats' reaction to Donald Trump involvement with Russia, the truth fits like a glove. Re-read it and tell me it's not true.
Epstein's criminal activity, high profile contacts/clients and suspicious death in jail warrants a neutral independent counsel to investigate this mess.
The case has become too murky for AG Barr to handle. His credibility is zero and with the stakes so high, an independent counsel is the only way to go.
Let's discover the facts without a helping of Barr's influence.
I'm sure he's a very busy man who has other things to do besides putting his foot on the scales of justice.
326
@American2019 It's a great idea, with one caveat - Barr should not have the right to review and redact the report before it is released to the public.
68
@American2019 No special prosecutor. Epstein is dead. Move on to the next despicable character.
1
@American2019
Barr's father , a Columbia University Professor helped
to get Epstein a job teaching math at The Dalton Schoo,
in NYC.
\
Think about all those tied to Epstein....
Those who had anything to do with Epstein must be
questioned...no excuses
54
The "conspiracy" is the one right before our eyes: That Trump as president and his Justice Department failed to keep alive an extremely high-profile prisoner in federal custody. Period. It is another of a long list of failures of his presidency, and it is no mystery why Trump is pointing fingers at the Clintons, hoping to distract from his ultimate responsibility for his latest failure.
8
I don't think "conspiracy" is the right word. I think that the "evils" that show up in certain spheres are perhaps merely concentrated confusions that are present in our culture at large. Stereotypes, abuse, corruption, bigotry and the abuse of power and bullying exist everywhere, in some schools more than other, in some institutions more than other. I wonder if it just becomes concentrated in certain spheres. Popular movies normalize these confusions. Advertisements also normalize them.
4
When we explore Epstein’s death in custody, we will most likely find that it is related to the sharp cut in tax revenues, leaving agencies without the budgets needed to do a good job.
That explains the absence of skilled guards and protocols better than anything else.
Now, if you want to explore something interesting, look at how his money bought him years of freedom and acceptance among the powerful.
3
More and more, I wonder why Douthat is allowed to occupy precious space within the Times. All of this discussion around "conspiracy theories" is a question of the of the reasonableness of the specific idea.
To call suspicion of Russia's interference in the 2016 election a "conspiracy theory" is ludicrous. It is obvious truth, and has been from when it was first discovered. Whether it involved the active participation of the Trump campaign is, an open question of fact, but it is not, and never was, a "conspiracy theory".
In the Epstein case, it is not craziness to question why such a person was not on suicide watch, or if he was, why he was able to evade it. It is an obvious and reasonable question. As far as considering the abuse scandals with the Catholic church a conspiracy theory, just look at the source - he has ardently defended the Catholic church as a source of moral wisdom despite millennia of corruption.
None of these things things are "conspiracy theories". They are all based on reasonable suspicion.
But the Clinton's having Epstein "rubbed out" is, however, a ridiculous conspiracy theory which is being used as a distraction (mostly from Trump's closeness to this vile character).
Over and over again, Douthat uses too broad a brush to sweep reasonable discussion in with Trumpian craziness to justify the Trumpian craziness as reasonable. It is logically flawed. It is intentional sophistry. And at the end of the day, it is nothing more than propaganda.
19
@Startzesq
What documentary evidence leads you to be so sure about the guilt of the "Russians"?
2
These conspiracy theaters pose the danger of morphing into something much more sinister. With Epstein gone - by whatever means - it will now fall upon a politicized Justice Dept to unravel the mystery. If recent memory is a guide, Mr. Barr will be selective in his revelations. Thus, a new conspiracy will be unleashed and verified as truth. Danger will be found not just by what we know, but also in what we were never told.
6
Is it a "conspiracy theory" to wonder why Trump has been so deferential to Putin from as early as the campaign to present day? The same Russia that we now know for a fact was deeply involved in trying to manipulate the election? The same Russia that Don Jr. admitted in a moment of weakness that is closely tied to several Trump investments. Russia would not have made the top 100 of issues focused on in the 2016 election yet Russia, Russian operatives, and ties to Russia were all over the Trump campaign. Trump has shown extremely little knowledge of foreign affairs, history, or geopolitical strategy, yet we are to believe he had some strategic reason for weakening NATO and giving Russia a green light into Ukraine? What is Trump hiding about his relationship with Russia?
The true conspiracy theorists might posit he's a modern-day Manchurian Candidate. Yet, it is very plausible there is something very deep and sinister about the Trump-Russia connection.
13
The wild-eyed maverick psychoanalyst, a Brit, famous in the sixties, R. D. Laing, mischievously asked, “What if your paranoia is real?”
American history has shown, time and time again, that our paranoia was real, that the fantastic scenario, the conspiracy, in time, turned out to be true.
Who wanted to believe that beautiful to behold man, John F. Kennedy, married to Jackie, with two good-looking children, the President of the United States, used prostitutes and White House interns for his sexual pleasure?
Or, that another President, Lyndon Baines Johnson, lied to us when he claimed the North Vietnamese attacked American ships and that was his justification for starting the Vietnam War?
Or, what high student studying American history in 1960s would have believed J. Edgar Hoover, Director of the FBI, was a closeted homosexual who hated Martin Luther King, Jr. and that Hoover would do anything to smear King’s reputation?
This list of American conspiracy theories that turned out to be true is long. I see no reason, based on the facts of the case, not to believe dark forces wanted Jeffery Epstein dead. Let history prove me wrong.
16
Very well argued article.
On the Marianne Williamson example, I think the underlying conspiracy among the medical profession is to give patients as much treatment as they can justify whether it's really needed or not.
My advise to people: say no to treatment unless something is really bothering you. (But I'm all for vaccines, by the way).
4
to call that a conspiracy is , i believe , unfair. to recognize that giving the most care is the path of least resistance for the medical establishment would be a better description. either way, your point remains the same.
1
It simply begs credulity that the Feds, the DOJ, did not allocate the extra resources necessary to provide 24 hr surveillance of this cretin, arguably the highest value prisoner and witness at this time.
This guy was not it jail for boosting stollen Slim Jim's across state lines.
This guy was a key figure, and witness in a massive child porn and trafficking conspiracy in which dozens or more of the high and mighty of Wall St., politics, academia, and more were involved.
It calls to mind the monumental incompetence of both the Feds and the Dallas PD in the wake of the Kennedy assassination where the DPD paraded LHO through an unsecured hallway giving J. Ruby ample opportunity to shoot him.
It's incompetence, dereliction of duty and just plain old stupidity like this that feed conspiracy theories.
7
@Chris Morris Stupidity is a great cover for malfeasance.
4
Yossarian was paranoid, but they were actually trying to kill him.
4
Conspiracy theories are fed by the government's passion for secrecy and lies. An enormous quantity of information is classified out of reflexive habit and to spare embarrassment of officials. One of the small positives from the GOP's fake concerns with Hillary's emails, was to remind us of the strange way the classification system works.
AND Attorney General William Barr is "appalled" and is going to investigate - FBI etc. Trump has succeeded in one of his goals - raising suspicion about our intelligence apparatus. I, for one, don't think the Attorney General is concerned one bit about the Epstein matter. An investigation could lead to Mr. Trump...and that wouldn't be good for Mr. Barr's career - now would it????
13
I don’t think it conspiracy theory to raise very serious questions about why Trump behaves as he does about Putin and Kim and MBS. Nor is outlandish to think the circumstances of Epstein’s death do not pass the smell test. I’m both cases Trump and other powerful people are implicated for being exploited for past misdeeds and corruptions. Republicans and Fox are okay with unfounded claims lobbied against Democrats. Yet they turn blind eyes to behaviors that any fair assessment would deem alarming.
24
This self-described communist never thought I would find myself agreeing so thoroughly with one of Douthat’s columns, but this is the age we live in. Everyone, from left to right, can smell the rot emanating from within our nation’s elite circles; how self-deluding must one be to insist that our status quo is sustainable? If there is one agreeable theme to emerge from Ross’ column over the years, it is his critique that the liberal center has arrogantly refused to examine its own role in the creation of the modern crisis. Instead, they lay the blame at the feet of a (truly wretched) conservatism that actually only ever gains any popular purchase because of modern liberalism’s utter failure to envision a better future. We need deep, structural change - the etymological meaning of the word “radical” is “by the root.” The question is, do we choose the direction of exclusion, of genocide and warfare? Or do we cast off the burdens of our history and class society? Right now only the former of those positions is seen as a legitimate, mainstream political platform.
4
So, what is your point? I am sorry, but Russian did collude with the Trump campaign to win the election. There is profound truth in every"conspiracy theory" you mention. The actual reality is probably far worse than any conspiracy theory suggests. There probably were delightful aliens who came, secretly met with our government, but we killed them all, when we realized that wanted to gift us with cheap alternatives to fossil fuels.
7
The simplest refutation of conspiracy theories in general is the fact that information, like water, ultimately leaks. The very efforts deployed to cover up a conspiracy end up pointing to it. Case in point: the Acosta deal with Epstein.
5
Let's take investigative journalism seriously, and apply it to the Epstein case. Here are the questions real journalists would answer, instead of planting the "conspiracy theory" meme.
* Who were Epstein's most powerful customers?
* Epstein reportedly kept meticulous notes and perhaps even audio/video recordings of the trysts he set up. Where are those materials?
* Who would benefit if Epstein died?
* Given the connections between Barr and Epstein, and that Barr functions as Trump's criminal and civil attorney, why would anyone trust Barr to do an honest investigation?
* Who are the people who allegedly failed to properly institute a "suicide protocol" and what caused them to do so.
* Where's the body, what's the credibility of the autopsy doctor, and what does the autopsy reveal?
* What did Epstein say to investigators and his attorneys before he died about the powerful people he "allegedly" provided sex partners to?
* Why did Trump hire Acosta for his Cabinet; what did Trump know about the Acosta-Epstein sweetheart deal?
* What connections if any did Epstein have to intelligence agencies?
* Where did Epstein get all his money and where is all his money now?
* Why was suddenly Epstein arrested in 2019 when he had been free and clear for years?
It's not a "conspiracy theory" to surmise that a man who could rich people in sex crimes would be murdered or "allowed" to end his own life. It's rational to surmise that. Let's hope some real journalists answer these questions, soon.
32
Evidently, you don't know the difference between investigative reporting & opinion pieces like this one. (It's clearly stated as such in large font at the top of the piece, but you are not the first NYT reader to fail to notice that before jumping ugly with the criticism.) "Real" journalists do both kinds of writing & other kinds, as well. As for answers to your long list of questions, you can be assured that they are being investigated, in-depth, as I type, by "real" journalists, while the other ones are doing whatever it is they do. For pete's sake, the guy's been dead for three days! "Real" investigative reporting is an arduous process that takes a long time. (Remember Watergate? That took 2 years to unfold.) You can bet that ASAP, we will be reading long & detailed investigative pieces on the Epstein matter both here & in other reputable publications that do excellent deep reporting like VF. ***In the meantime, failing to recognize & understand the huge difference between investigative journalism & opinon pieces is rather like being unable to tell the difference between "real" journalism & fake news, & between newscasts & pundit shows.*** This has created so many serious problems in this country, yet people seem unable, or unwilling, or just too lazy to educate themselves. Unjust & totally inapplicable knee jerk criticism is just so much easier, I guess. FYI--The NYT employs journalists who are the "real" deal no matter what kind of writing they're doing.
1
@Steve Davies
Since no one is reading my lengthy response, here's a summary: this is an opinion piece, not investigative journalism, "real" or otherwise. It is clearly labeled as such. The two are entirely different things. Your rant is rather like complaining that your milk doesn't taste like orange juice--even though it's not supposed to.Your bad, not the writer's.
You missed a good one. About the Russians. If the Russians can take a perfume bottle and poison a target in England, with no compunction, they can surely jiggle a few votes in a few precincts into which we know they hacked. Or maybe even into ones we do not know about. And maybe they manipulated voter registration files and signatures. We may never know.
7
@chichimax
While you have the hat on ... those supposed election officials, the volunteer ones, somehow understand russian slang, unconsciously reacting.
You're missing the whole point of Trump's demand for an investigation. He wants to find a way to hang this on Obama.
4
He has already blamed the Clintons.
2
It seems that Epstein was essentially a pimp for many rich and powerful people, some of whom we have seen in photographs with him. No doubt many of these people will be relieved that Epstein is silenced. An attorney might ask, cui bono in regard to his death. Perhaps a better way of putting it would be, who had the most to lose by his staying alive, and who had the most opportunity to do something about it.
8
People keep mentioning the photos of Epstein with famous people & I am reminded of the unfortunate photo of First Lady Rosalynn Carter with prolific serial killer John Wayne Gacy. Photos can be worth less than the paper they're printed on. Epstein was a very image-conscious poseur before he got exposed for his sick crimes. I'm sure he sought out photo ops with the rich & powerful because he believed displaying them would impress people & elevate his status, & I guess it worked. Not to say he didn't have ties with rich, powerful people because he did. It's just that photos prove nothing.
3
The likeliest explanation for Jeffrey Epstein's suicide is probably a combination of under-staffing in the facility, along with over-worked, over-tired, and possibly under-trained guards. Combine this with a relatively clever and determined prisoner, and there's really no mystery. Mr. Epstein is hardly the first prisoner to commit suicide in custody, maybe just the most notorious.
2
@R.L.Irwin
Epstein would have lived the high life if convicted. His wealth would have bought him every desire while incarcerated. Why would he avoid that ?
2
The first thing that struck me was the similarity to Whitey Bulger being accidentally left in the general population cell during an overnight transit stop due to an 'oversight', giving a prisoner an opportunity to kill him.
4
Good column. Thank you.
4
Mr. Douthat is right when he observes that many originators of conspiracy theories are outsiders to power, as are many of those who believe in the theories. But outsiders to power, or powerful people themselves, can share a characteristic - that of not understanding the world enough to perceive and trace causality even when there is good evidence for it. Donald Trump has access to every source of information that exists, but he doesn't have the understanding to make use of that access, and baffled by his ignorance and laziness he falls back on his instinct for waking the worst instincts of his listeners and of himself. Wisdom is often characterized as holy, for the reason that it is our best source of salvation. If we won't learn we won't ever be at peace.
5
When there is in fact a conspiracy, the perpetrators of it are delighted when countless alternative conspiracies are voiced, creating more chaos and confusion. But in this internet age, where so many people are exposed to news, instantly and in details, and can react and reply to it in a personal way, crowd sourced answers often point to the genuine conspiracy by highlighting which is the most plausible. In the case of Epstein, start with the two big questions. Who benefited most and who has the power to hide it.
8
In other words, criminals collude and crimes do happen. Allegedly, pending proof. Skeptics claim these evils are the marginal effects of human culture. Conspiracy theorists claim these evils are the effects of the powers and dominions which rule the air. Enlightened people can control or mitigate the former; the superstitious — that’s the category missing from this column — claim the pursuit of testable evidence is the path of destruction.
You mean people can be corrupt? Wow, you're blowing my mind.
5
Thank you Mr. Douthat for this piece. I often disagree with your conclusions, but generally appreciate your reasoned and self-aware perspective. You're right on the nose here.
An aside...
I can't help noticing that the Fox News marquis in the accompanying photo refers to Jeffrey "Estein" [sic] as a "bad boy financier." Good grief, that makes it sound as if he liked to stay out late and drink too much! Referring to a predatory pedophile as a "bad boy" borders on lionization and belies an appalling failure to understand the gravity of his crimes.
15
True, but after all, it *is* Fox. To expect decency is illogical.
6
Epstien had many possible criminal co-conspirators; Trump, Clinton, Andrew, Dershowitz, Wexner, Spacey, Richardson, et al. Any one of these may have interest in seeing him dead because there was no guarantee he would turn against one or all. Out of all above, one person has lived and acted like a Mafia. Guess who should be a prime suspect?
8
I can't help noticing that the Fox News ticker in the photo describes Epstein as a "bad boy financier," a disturbingly misleading minimization of his alleged crimes, as though instead of an accused serial child molester he was no more than a successful, if somewhat incorrigible scamp.
18
I rarely agree with Ross Douthat but this time he is spot on.
1
This is a good column, Mr Douthat.
2
“Just because you are paranoid, doesn’t mean they are not out to get you.”
6
Maybe Epstein Government scapegoat mirroring British Profumo sex scandal fall guy,Dr. Steven Ward also conveniently committing “suicide”?
4
Trump sees everyone who consider him a psychopath as participants in a vast left wing conspiracy.
3
August 13, 2019
Only the super rich can afford great conspiracies and get the very best chaos towards excitation with the intent that if enough is radioactive then tragedy is eminent and to say needed for making the victimization engine - created behind the scenes and only expectation is supernova - it's a bast and it this ain't fake science or dramaturgtical Dantesque .
JJA NYC
1
I agree with the general characterization of conspiracy theories presented here.
However, there is one glaring equality as regards Epstein and Trump that will be inexorably revealed: Both are massive frauds; frauds that will ultimately strain the limits of humans to conceive them.
I still have some hope that enough of the American electorate will counter the insanity on daily display from The Great Pretender, president Trump, before it is too late. I have hope....not certainty.
4
It's been said, and believed by many intelligent people, that JFK, MLK and RFK (to name just a few) were victims of conspiracies. I happen to be one of those people. Yet, those conspiracies will always remain merely conspiracy theories to just as many intelligent people. And then there's Fake News.
Conspiracies are often harder to prove than disprove, while conspiracy theories are often easier to disprove than prove. And then there's 'Fake News,' today's language which Trump, Alex Jones, Giuliani, Hannity, Limbaugh, Ingraham, Kellyanne Conway and their ilk are masterfully fluent in.
The longer we continue to live under the guise of lies, the sooner we become an autocracy. That's the only thing that really matters.
Vote.
9
The media feeds conspiracy theories when it reports - without corroborating evidence - the Epstein committed suicide.
We haven't even seen his dead body yet.
The reporting should read "Epstein found dead in his jail cell. Authorities allege suicide".
8
@unreceivedogma - "The reporting should read "Epstein found dead in his jail cell. Authorities allege suicide"."
It should read, "Prison authorities report Epstein Found Dead", until a reporter from the New York Times actually sees the body themself. And it should be corroborated by a victim who can confirm that that is indeed the man who attacked her.
2
I used to be skeptical of conspiracy theories. I mean, who would believe that the US government was tapping everyone's phones including world leaders, eavesdropping on the UN, building backdoor access to the servers of Yahoo, Google and other major tech platforms, tapping fibre optic cables carrying information. I mean who could possibly believe in such a ludicrous conspiracy....oh wait a minute.
9
@Sipa111 - :) My mother was a former Marine Corps telephone operator and taught me as a small child that our government listens to all of the phone calls. That was back in the 60's.
3
Collusion-truthers are still clinging desperately to their “Trump-Russia collusion” conspiracy theories.
3
Telling handle, Galt.
Truth is not truthiness. Lack of sufficient evidence is not absolution. Evil intentions are not solely driven by single minded actions. The jury is is still out but that doesn’t mean that conspiracy does not exist. That is the point.
6
@JQGALT
...and there are still collusion-deniers who have never read the Mueller Report! Imagine that!
7
Only the media keep saying suicide over and over again. Find one person on the street anywhere in the United States who doesn't think he was murdered by the powerful people his trial was about to expose.
Media says suicide, the people aren't buying it.
19
Given AG Barr's performance during the Mueller report release, it's not really a conspiracy theory caliber suspicion to believe he's investigating the Epstein thing to get first access to the evidence for the purpose of shielding the president.
He's already proven in broad daylight and with little conscience that he is the attorney for the president and not the country or the legal system.
That's not a a conspiracy theory-- that's a fact.
23
Never assume a conspiracy when stupidity will do. People screw up and sometimes in a big way with just a very small mistake. Details do matter. There will be an investigation.
"the conspiracy theories about networks of powerful pedophiles"
But Ross, there actually was a network of powerful pedophiles allied with a powerful network of those who protected and enabled them. Mr. Epstein was a piker compared to the gang inside your church.
29
Spot on, thank you. People will jump to some wild conclusions about the Epstein matter. But given what we do know, and more importantly what we still don't know, I think we can at least agree that something seems... off.
4
I’ve known a woman who told me exactly how at least one of these types of prostitution rings among the elite work and I was horrified! A charming slightly older woman will befriend younger models and beautiful girls around town to go to fancy dinners at Cipriani’s for example. All well and good, there are wealthy men there and that’s fine. Later the woman will invite the girls to the Hamptons for the weekend where there will be a big event for a “charity” the older woman works for. In truth the charity is merely a front as only a small fraction of funds raised go to the stated philanthropic cause. Men who have “donated” large amounts of money to the “charity” are invited to these events where they meet and seduce the girls who have been groomed for seduction by their older friend. The kicker- the money paid by the men for this essentially prostitution service is a tax-deductible contribution to the “charity”! These men get to pretend for the sake of their egos and legal jeopardy that they are not paying for prostitutes and the US Taxpayer foots the bill!
18
My mother was mentally ill and was frequently hospitalized. She often claimed that her brother-in-law was a CIA agent. We all dismissed this as crazy talk like her claim to be the daughter of God and her theory that my father's death was faked so that he could start a new life. Turns out my uncle probably was connected to the CIA and maybe the Mafia too. Not every crazy idea is completely false.
7
To me, words can be like currency. Or they are indications of a beginning of a very interesting trail.
So when Trump said that the election was fixed, I hollered at my husband that Donald Trump has or is doing something to the American election. Holy Moly!
When Epstein got a slap on the wrist for sex trafficking in underage minors that was brought about by some associate of Donald Trump, I quivered like a dog who had just smelt something oh so very interesting. Wow.
When Donald Trump talked about the Clintons getting rid of Epstein, my jaw dropped. Whoa. I said that several times to my husband and then said shockingly what has Donald Trump done! The minute Donald Trump starts pointing fingers at someone is when I start to wonder what has he done now.
A lot people think that if they have a lot of money, they can say whatever they want because their money does the talking for them. And it does. But some of us know the difference between money talking and when the speaker and their words are their very own currency.
5
@Morgan
It's unfortunately simple; he accuses the nearest person of whatever he's actually done. Witness the debate: "I'm not the puppet, you're a puppet".
I'd be surprised if this was an orderly conspiracy going all the way to the top, vs. someone (Barr or lower, or another Epstein "client") doing a little fixing to make sure Epstein was left alone. But Donald knows that even if he didn't order it, he totally gets the idea. Hence the accusations.
5
What is more interesting than how JE died or what he did with some underage sexual participant is how this guy made all this money. He was not a hedge fund manager, did not trade commodities or derivatives, was not Carl Icahn, or David Teper, or Bill Ackman, so how did he actually have so much money. He listed himself as a tax expert. Tax experts with almost a billion dollars to play with? Something is going on here and the media should dig into this.
17
Would it be a conspiracy if one powerful individual was able to direct the actions of capable and lethal rogue agents? I suggest we watch to see if one of the two guards on duty at the time of Epstein's death experiences a "terminal event" at some point in the near future.
7
Perhaps the so-called president should not be at the forefront of accusing someone who had fewer know contacts with Epstein than he himself did.
6
This opinion commentary is really excellent. There may be elements of truths in conspiracy theories and we have to be open to them. Just because the surrounding "noise" is deafening, it doesn't mean all the noise should be trashed! We can't trash the Epstein story. And one thing that I heard that concerns me is that "deals" can be made with victims, behind closed doors, with a gag order and a non-disclosure agreement. While that may be right legally, it's wrong ethically. We need to know who the powerful men are who were involved. Their predilections may not have been confined to Epstein's group and those victims outside that group may only come forward once the complete story is public.
5
We don’t call these people conspiracy theorists, we call them legitimate questioners.
15
The Epstein-Barr Syndrome:
When a defendant is placed in the custody of someone who desperately seeks to see him dead.
29
No reason not to be suspicious after Trump attacked Clinton and in so doing also cast suspicion on himself. Suspicious especially was the accusation of a then 12 year old who some years ago said she was raped by Epstein and Trump and that they threatened her and her parents to keep them quiet.
11
Conspiracy theories are like « double fakes » :
1) there is more going on here than one sees at first glance,
2) but you are smarter than average, so you see the hidden truth.
Both ideas are false. A double fake.
Can’t help noticing the photo with the Fox News crawl labeling Epstein as a ‘bad boy’. Fox News evidently doesn’t recognize a predator when it sees one.
7
How could you have failed to mention the granddaddy of all conspiracies, the assassination of JFK?
But in all seriousness as well as playfulness, after reading this piece I have to wonder, should anyone take anything Ross Douthat has to say seriously?
6
Let's just say AG of SDNY Berman could have made a trip to the MCC to guarantee Epstein's security. It's right across the street! If I were an AG hungry for a high profile prosecution like Epstein, I would have personally made sure that nothing happened. He is a trump appointee, and even though he is not what trump expected, he is still a trump supporter. A visit from the AG to the detention center would have sealed it, whether there were tired and overworked government workers guards or not. No legwork, no trust. There is still a lot to learn, but I don't like that there was no effort from the top.
7
When Donald Trump boasted that he could step out on to Fifth Avenue and murder someone and his supporters would not abandon him, how far was he leaping from the fact that even were he just the pre-escalator Donald Trump, reality TV star and paper billionaire, he would also have been protected from real punishment by his money and his contacts?
4
I for one don't believe that the Russian plot against the West "is far weaker and less consequential than the paranoid center believes." I firmly believe instead that there is a very powerful conspiracy emanating from Russia to disrupt Western democracies based on the paranoia of the Putin regime and its ingrained inferiority complex. In its support for right-wing nativist parties and its disinformation campaign based on fear of immigrants and people of color it is very consequential indeed. Trump may not be an agent of this conspiracy, but he is very definitely a recipient of its nefarious outreach.
17
.
The main reason for the public to be incredulous (Re: Epstein's death) is that a US Federal Prison is assumed (by me, anyway) to be competently run ... especially when it comes to protecting the prisoners in their "care."
In the further case that a prisoner has already attempted a suicide while incarcerated, I, as a citizen, would expect very specific protocols to be immediately put in place to not allow the prisoner to harm himself.
Oh, silly me! Under-funded facilities, under-staffed crews, overworked personnel, unqualified individuals ... what could go wrong?
Welcome to the modern US of A.
7
UFOs??! Really?? Based on the military lying about some very minor project tracking unexplained sighting we are justified in concluding that there is technologically sophisticated life elsewhere in the universe and that they travel light years to visit us, on a regular basis and in a variety of craft. Balancing an inverted Great Pyramid on an eggshell of evidence. And that is the problem with conspiracists: no sense of proportion.
Regarding Epstein, the coming proliferation of conspiracy theories his death guarantees - with certainty - that nearly all of them are wrong. If there are 100 posited conspiracies (and there will likely be many more) then at a minimum 99 must be wrong: he only died once and in just one way. Likewise, if he was spirited away to George Soros' yacht then he isn't dead; if he is dead he's not on the yacht.
What is disturbing about this is that it fuels the irrationality of an increasingly demented public.
1
Politics in the US is a charade more than a conspiracy. People of like interests collude to advance them.
3
Ross, your opinion piece reads like the journalistic equivalent of whataboutism. Conspiracy theories are why journalism matters, and why journalistic ethics still apply. In a world where anyone can post written material, then a journalists credentials and reputation proceed them. It’s called accountability. Thank you to the NYTs, WashPo, and the hundreds of smaller news organizations that hold firm to their ethics. A special shout out to the Miami Herald for exposing the Epstein case with proper investigative journalism.
9
there is often brutal reality and our human explanations that are often both fantastic and consensual that read off that reality.. the examples here reveal the gap..it is important not to become fixitated on narratives because a disturbing reality is always the cause...review the allegory of the three blind men and the elephant
Thank You for delineating the difference between real events and the absurd or worse: cover up and obstruction of transparency and justice.
To add to your example of UFOs, three times in my life I witnessed dramatic and vivd UFOs. Each time there were sane people who saw them with me. In two of the sightings there were other people who did not see them, simply because they were preoccupied and not looking. The sightings were strange enough and worthy of amazement and real questions, without others adding idiotic embellishments on real sightings.
About the Jeffrey Epstein case, William Barr, the Catholic Church, the truths revealed by Robert Mueller, the theft of the 2016 election by the GOP; the Supreme Court's egregious involvement in the 2000 election, their rulings on the Voting Rights Act and Citizens United; the role of irresponsible media and marginalization of journalism; the poisoning of food, health, and the environment; financial fraud and gross imbalances of power and wealth; loss of transparency and deliberate overriding of our democracy; our criminal president:
These are serious crimes, obstruction of justice and democracy. Immediate attention and swift action are necessary.
7
As James B Stewart’s column today points out, Epstein was likely someone who burnished false relationships with celebrities for his narcissistic needs. None of his claims about the dirt he knew about could be substantiated and in fact, it was clear he was more interested in drawing attention to himself with his promised disclosures. There is no information available to support the idea that he was running an illicit operation for the powerful. So, be very careful in giving conspiracy theories regarding Epstein any credence .
Ross Douthat presents a history of people holding beliefs originally dismissed as conspiracy theories, and later disclosures showing that the theories were accurate or partially accurate.
In each case, the story begins with something which everyone agrees is both true and odd. In the case of the U.F.O.s, everyone agreed that in the sky Americans of unquestioned sanity truly observed what appeared to be an odd flying object. Assuming that the sighting was the spacecraft of extraterrestrial visitors is the point on which people disagreed.
In the case of Jeffrey Epstein’s death, everyone agrees that he truly was a despicable pedophile, truly socialized with prominent people, truly faced spending the rest of his miserable life in prison, truly had every reason to commit suicide to avoid that future, truly attempted suicide 2 ½ weeks before his death, truly received psychiatric evaluation for one week, and truly was declared not to be a risk to himself, and truly was taken off suicide watch.
Now, some people insist upon ignoring these truths about Epstein's life and the logical reasons he had for ending that life. They also ignore that the DOJ received new documents about Epstein’s crimes in New York a few days before his death, reviving Epstein's decision that only suicide was an option.
On the skimpy evidence of mistakes made about reinstating the watch and in assigning staff, conservatives claim that Epstein was murdered by Democrats.
Donald Trump is spreading hogwash.
1
"Yes, by all means, resist the tendency toward unfounded speculation and cynical partisan manipulation. But also recognize that in the case of Jeffrey Epstein and his circle, the conspiracy was real."
Two thoughts:
Consider Occam's Razor.
Because you are not paranoid does not mean that they are not out to get you...
2
Useful column to help us understand conspiracy theorists a little better. Many horrible things happen that are simply the warp of human behavior unfolding in complex, unpleasant ways. No one plans it or guides it; it happens by itself, sui generis or as the confluence of many factors converging to shape a particular behavior in a distinct group. Pedophile priests are one example. The emergence of Jim Crow discrimination into an eduring Southern institution after the Civil War is another. It just happens. Once it starts, some people came along to profit from it and extend it for other reasons in very deliberate, planful and painful ways. So it is with Epstein. His proclivities mixed teenage sex abuse with parasitic, wanton and willful exercise of power and privilege. A bad look to be sure, but in a deep, dark conspiratorial way? Not to start with based on this one individual exploiting a deeply-flawed system that wallows in secrecy. But what about later cover-ups and damage control by the rich and powerful who can be ashamed and are scared of guilt by association? Most definitely could and probably is happening. Hence the intense interest in the circumstances of Epstein's demise.
For once, Mr Douthat has written something sensible. The problem Trump and Barr will have in overcoming conspiracy theories about what happened is two-fold: Trump is himself spreading a conspiracy theory; and both are serial liars, up to their necks in this sordid story, and almost certainly having strong reasons to bury Mr Epstein in several senses of that phrase. no-one is likely to belief what they and their minions say and report, because they have forfeited all credibility. And it is deeply troubling that such a likely target for murder, or to commit death by his own hand, was left unsupervised and with the means to kill easily to hand. So paranoid suspicions can easily find a following here, since the known facts of the case are so deeply troubling. It is a measure of how far the United States has fallen that we have such a criminal and serial liar sitting in the White House, and an Attorney General who has forfeited all credibility among those who pay any attention to his actions.
3
Here's the absolute truth about our "world order". The world's elite want to maintain their status and increase their wealth, with little to no regard with how their lust for both affects others (especially the weak) and there is no limit on their appetite for more. The world is literally not enough. Moreover, because of how our psychology works, the pain of being forced to give up even a tiny amount of that (mostly inherited) wealth, is devastating on a primal level which is why the super rich, since time immemorial, have always fought all forms of taxation tooth and nail.
Finally, there's cognitive dissonance. Humans have to be The hero in their own narrative. The billionaires aren't entitled monstrous takers leaving everyone else to snarl like starving dogs over breadcrumbs &trash in a ecologically devastated hellscape but upstanding, hardworking, driven, job creators that deserve every good thing they've acquired. They justify that whatever policy change they are pursuing is not just good for them personally but also for everyone else, or at least better then the alternative& the people who say otherwise are lying, entitled, lazy, jealous, heretics looking to sabotage the success better men have built. The conspiracy is as old as civilization itself: the powerful want to stay powerful& will do anything it takes to maintain the system that keeps them in power.
Boring, awful and entirely lacking lizard people, the truth just doesn't excite the synapses like Qanon.
1
This is excellent , Thank You!!
Coincidence??? How is it possible that William Barr's father, Donald Barr, gave Epstein his job teaching math at Dalton, the premier private school, When Epstein was 20 yrs old and a college dropout? And why is this issue not raised when W. Barr is the head of the very justice system that was in charge of Epstein's incarceration and ensuring well-being and, therefore, ability to testify?
6
Ross, you don't have to keep virtue signaling by always disparaging Trump. You might admit when he's been right or done good, but in any event, stick with what's relevant and just get to your point.
Absolutely loved reading this, both for its quality thought content and its racy yet strangely subtle style. A delightful and delightfully clarifying read in the midst of this exceptionally gunky news story.
One thing I know is that even the most outlandish delusion forms around a kernel of truth.
Not a conspiracy - just food for thought. Was Epstein "allowed/encouraged/empowered" to die via assistance from Wm Barr's influence? Done to take DJT out of the headlines due to his atrocious response to the most recent assault weapons slaughters?
4
The Mueller Report and Q-anon in the same column? Talk about false equivalence, both sides-ism and painting with a broad brush!
This column is a classic example of what an exasperated Paul Krugman in a recent Tweet called the "asymmetrical polarization watch" that is embodied in the coverage of the Epstein matter.
As he described the phenomenon: liberals ask the simple, logical question "how could this have happened?", conservatives (up to and including the president) openly implicate the Clintons in Epstein's death, and the moderates and pundits then predictably lash at "both sides" for "engaging in conspiracy theories".
This apparently is what passes for "symmetry" and "balance" in our modern political discourse.
And can someone please tell me how simply being sceptical of an official governmental position and asking factual questions is somehow "engaging in a conspiracy theory"?
4
Good grief! Suspicions of conspiracy are often well placed and conspiracies themselves are as common as fleas on a dog.
It's exactly why regulation, like anti-trust laws, or price fixing, or the Brown Act in California are legislated: to prevent sneaky conspiracies.
Read up about Operation Mockingbird, a once secret CIA action to influence Media...Like the NYT's back in the day. Or maybe not so far back in the day like with Judy Miller.
People are evolved to take note of things that are fishy. Conspiracy suspicions are useful and necessary. And Epsteins death is without question is suspicious, as was Jamal Khashoggi.
People have been trained to not trust their governments through long experience. It's as simple as that.
5
The death of Mr. Epstein is an insult to every woman who had a right to see this man brought to justice. It is believable he was murdered by someone with the support of powerful outsiders. Murdered just like the journalist from the Washignton Post that Trump doesn't believe the Saudis did the deed.
This whole suicide myth is unbelievable, on the same level that President Kennedy was shot by a lone killer, no conspiracy there? the public never believed that tale.
Were grade school children running this federal prison.? Lay people watching prisoners?
Barr, his fake outrage, Trump cut funding for federal prisons, anyone noticed? Nurses, doing the work of a prison guard. Mr. Epstein was murdered , Barr is in the coverup since Barr's daddy hired Mr. Epstein to teach at Dalton, a white boy who had no credential's but was teaching at an elite school, Mr. Epstein introduced Melania to Trump.
Now call me crazy but I never thought I would see the United States of America putting children in cages, abusing citizens at political meetings, A President hugging up to a Russian dictator talking about lovely letters from a tyrant who murders his own population.Trump going after the CIA, FBI and telling Russia how much he believes them over Americans.
Call me crazy but where there is smoke there is fire the death of Mr. Epstein has plenty of heavy smoke. Barr, the lying administration wont be able to lie about this body count .
People trust gov't just not this crew.
3
There are conspiracy theories, and then there are Conspiracy Theories.
In the latter group I list The Illuminati, Area 51, Q Anon, George Soros and The Globalists (sometimes related to The Illuminati), The Clintons (and all the sub-theories like The Clinton Foundation, Uranium One, and of course that all-time favorite, Child Sex Slavery). The biggest problem with these kinds of conspiracy theories is that they are virtually impossible to disprove. Usually you'd have to prove negatives, and to have been so successful for so long, the perpetrators would have to have almost superhuman intelligence and powers of control so vast and insidious, you could never prove that anything you did to fight them wasn't exactly what they wanted you to do.
In the former group are things that seem to be either incredible coincidences of many elements (e.g. the death of Jeff Epstein; Trump 2016 campaign Russian connections) or things getting explained away by obvious flim-flammery, especially from known con artists (e.g. Donald Trump; William Barr) that make coincidence suspicious as an explanation. For these, you're usually playing around between believable coincidence vs conspiracy vs collusion vs like minds do like things and do them to mutual benefit but not necessarily in concert. If I want to rob a bank and I see you cracked the vault already, just because I come in and grab some cash doesn't mean we conspired or even colluded; yet, we both robbed the same bank at the same time.
There are "redneck reality" channels that regularly pump this nonsense out. However, Mr Douthat should look no further than the GOP for Atwater, Rove, Stone and Manifort for conspiracy theory central. And Mr Douthat in absolutely wrong about Russia.
https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/cyber/russian-interference-in-2016-u-s-elections
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/24/us/politics/trump-mueller-testimony.html
2
Conspiracy theories are extreme. But when a high-profile monster like Epstein— who trafficked children for sex to powerful men (including Wm Barr, Trump, presidents, princes, billionaires, judges) in exchange for millions— mysteriously and timely dies in federal prison (where he was under suicide watch) it is not a conspiracy “theory” but rather a conspiracy to cover up. You know it. I know it. We all know it.
Connecting the dots of facts is simply common sense. The simply explanation is the correct one. Epstein’s death (whether he was allowed to commit suicide or was “suicided” ie murdered) is, in fact, a conspiracy by powerful men to cover up their pedophilia, rapes, and other criminal activities. That much is clear and is most likely only the tip of the iceberg.
5
Good piece. The JFK assassination conspiracy theories are as murky as the players involved. We may never get a straight answer to what really happened.
1
This premise is interesting. It basically says that only elite-and-"expert"-approved conspiracy theories are valid. It laughingly defeats the idea of conspiracy theories, which are basically an expression of distrust of elites.
Distrust of “elites” — a convenient generalization — does not a conspiracy make. Nor does distrust of the populist “hoi-pillow” a revolution make. Generalizations are generally a bad idea. All the columnist seems to be advising is that it’s wise to look for the needle of truth in the woolliest haystack of conspiracy theory. The earth isn’t flat but it can sure look like it is standing on on airport runway designed for jumbo jets that navigate their routes to exploit the curve of the earth to conserve fuel. Asking people to pay attention, to demand facts and to employ their reasoning ability sounds like a reasonable idea.
3
It is natural for people to form an hypothesis of events that happen around them until that theory is disproved or substantiated. This is the way that humans and other animals assimilate what is happing in order to formulate a response.
It has become commonplace among the less informed to use the term "conspiracy theory" as a pejorative for an opinion that is outside of their scope of experience. What is troubling is that some news outlets started to call Epstein's death a suicide before the autopsy was released or a complete independent investigation performed. Usually they will issue a disclaimer such as "this has not been authenticated by NBC".
There is a lot yet to be discovered yet about the immediate circumstances such as why a services of FBOP regulations were not followed, what happened in that cell and the case that lead him to that cell. Until a fuller picture has been developed it is essential that people keep asking questions without being concerned about the reaction.
7
Some evolutionary psychologists explain religious belief as a byproduct of evolutionary adaptations that allow human beings to imagine purposeful agents behind many observations that could not readily be explained otherwise. Is conspiratorial thinking so different from that? It seems we may be hard-wired to think this way.
5
This is such a well-written and important piece. I truly appreciate you taking the think through this issue and share your thoughts.
5
Yes! All conspiracy theories are incomplete, attempts to construct a coherent narrative out of a few choice facts or observations.
I have a t-shirt that says:
There are two kinds of people in the world:
1) Those who extrapolate from incomplete evidence
That's it in a nutshell. The difference between a paranoid fantasy and a scenario that is "just true" depends on how complete and verifiable it is. You can guess about the missing pieces and later turn out to be right or wrong when more information is known (as in the scientific method of reasoning), but a guess is still just a guess, like a coin flip.
We saw this in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. It wasn't so much that the Bush administration lied about the intelligence findings (though they did that, too) but that they overstated and exaggerated their certainty of their conclusions. They claimed they had solid proof (where the WMDs were, what the "aluminum tubes" were for) when they were really just speculating. They assumed that because they couldn't prove Saddam Hussein didn't have WMDs, and because he was alternately cooperative and cagey, he must be hiding something. He was, of course. He was hiding the evidence that he DIDN'T have a nuclear program, using the threat of nukes to keep his enemies at bay.
As a nation, we should have learned from this disastrous mistake. We don't know how much we don't know, until we do. Authoritarians exploit uncertainty and fill in the gaps with "fake news."
6
There is the Epstein conspiracy which is true Then there is the investigation into that conspiracy that is and will be a true, factual conspiracy in and of itself. Powerful people in the first one will help carry out the second. We will never learn half of what could be learned. Conspiracies work.
5
Writing off Russian interference in the US and other western nations as "inconsequential" is simply absurd. Given the closeness of the 2016 presidential election and the UK's Brexit referendum, the facts actually strongly suggest that Russian interference was not just consequential, but dispositive in producing two of the most significant political disruptions in recent times...the effects of which will not be fully felt for a long time.
17
Agree. DJT “won” by 70k votes in areas strategically and surgically targeted by FSB contractors. And calling him an asset since the 80’s is pretty much what journalist Craig Unger did in his exhaustively researched House of Trump, House of Putin. He could be a useful idiot with kompromat and still be an asset. It just means someone they find of value to build relationships with and keep tabs on. Anyone with that much Manhattan real estate and such high risk business practices combined with the psychological weaknesses of Trump would likely be a target for cultivation. The FBI tells us just as much en re foreign entanglements when describing the practices for obtaining a security clearance.
1
What's an article about conspiracy theories without a mention of the great one of our day: climate change denial? Douthat wisely avoids the subject, as it detracts from his thesis and illustrates how his political movement, and not just the Trump wing, is clearly and completely in the nut house.
An examination of the crackpots who espouse some form of denial would not fit Douthat's pattern. There is no hit of conspiracy among climate scientists. They don't fix the thermometers just a little bit. Climate change denial is a pure falsehood. It's promoters truly are like comic book villains willing to destroy the world for a few bucks.
Yet Douthat predictably ignores the greatest issue of our day and its link to the subject of conspiracy. Doing so wouldn't help the Republicans, would it? Then why write it?
13
I am not at all convinced of any journalistic "dismissiveness" evident in noting conspiracy thinking of the type explored in "The Paranoid Style in American Politics." In fact, rather than "sneer," capable journalists' coverage of fringe insanities like Q Anon may in fact lend them a cloak of respectability the ideas don't deserve. That's not sneering, it's explaining.
1
I don't think having serious doubts that this was actually a suicide even qualifies as a conspiracy theory. To me, it's more like common sense.
29
The investigative reporting that uncovered the Watergate conspiracy breathed life into the dormant conspiracy industry. It had been proven that dark forces do operate in the shadows, manipulating events. The existence of Watergate made any “Gate” possible. People want a conspiracy to be true to possibly implicate the other side in dirty deeds. Democrats wish for the “Russian Hoax” and obstruction conspiracies be real and finally implicate and ensnare Trump. Republicans hope that the Epstein conspiracy will grab some Democrats and drag them into the mud. The possibility of conspiracy is deeply appealing. It is important not to allow the desire to prove the other side is part of evil conspiracies lead us past the truth and down a rabbit hole of schadenfreude.
Your column was one of the best I've read in a long time. I noticed yesterday that journalists seemed to be warning against conspiracy theories without acknowledging the obvious unknown facts and surrounding both Epstein's life and death. And here you are this morning eloquently voicing what I felt but could not put into words. You give many examples of your thesis statement, all of which have many similarities to the Epstein case. Thank God for the free press, writers like you and investigative journalists like and Julie K Brown.
8
Epstein's 'death' is called a conspiracy, meaning more than one person involved. Theories from the hinterland:
1. Barr's people set the stage for Epstein to be neglected or helped. Helped as in a plan for him to escape. Money speaks and there are no good answers for what we have heard so far.
2. Trump's skin was in danger as there are witness to his rapes of underage girls. Trump is connected to the mob in NYC so how easy would it be to contract for Epstein's death?
3. Our creative minds can concoct a variety of conspiracies to suit the available data. The reality is that it will be covered up by Barr and the news becomes old news.
4. And finally, the cell is reported to be too high to hang oneself from, and the walls are cushioned to prevent self injury. Now what? Is the ME trying to autopsy a cadaver? Will we ever get the ME's report?
Our existing govt is completely corrupt.
10
I am no lover of POTUS but where did you find that “description “ of the cell Epstein was being held in? I devour the news daily and I never saw any such description...I think you are being played, my friend .
1
Hey, Ross:
I missed the part where you say "Trump's pushing of the Bill and Hillary Clinton having Epstein killed is nothing short of insane".
21
I respect your cynicism. But, there is the risk of be played. Conspiracies are hard to prove, especially with modern conveniences. I use a VPN, a military-grade file eraser, and other devices and practice strict security protocols online. I am not invisible, but as close as practical.
I ask two questions to consider a conspiracy: 1) who benefits and 2) who pays to cover it up. You'll never convince me that Kennedy was killed by a magic bullet because I know the math and the government's is wrong. You'll have a hard time convincing me that Trump is owned by Putin by the evidence reliable journalists have uncovered. And, you will never convince me that Epstein's "accident" was a happy convenience for Donald Trump, MBS, Bill Clinton and other connoisseurs of young girls.
1
Without the gun lobby, the only people that would have guns would be the criminals, because they aren't going to turn them in, the police that most of you feel are crooked, the members of Congress, because they aren't completely stupid, they'll make loopholes that will excuse themselves, and make the rest of us that refuse to give them up, Criminals. Which is what you want, right?
2
For goodness sake, how do we know he’s really dead?
12
@Anne P
Well, it would be hard to pull off such a cover up because so many people would need to be paid off. When someone dies in prison, there are a lot of witnesses: the prisoners looking on from adjacent cells when a guard starts shouting into a radio that he needs help cutting down a dead prisoner, the prison medic who rushes to try to resuscitate the prisoner, the paramedics called from an outside ambulance company, the body as glimpsed by other prison staff when wheeled out, the coroner who examines the dead person and takes necessary blood samples that can also be checked for DNA and so on. If the prisoner had disappeared in the night and none of the above had occurred, there would probably be some witnesses along the way that would notice that there had never been the usual events surrounding a prisoner death. This is exactly why a lot of criminals bungle their crimes. It's hard to hide tracks and to think of what would need to occur to create a plausible cover up.
"...an instinct only sharpened by the rise of Donald Trump, the cynical conspiracist par excellence."
Maybe so, but considering how much the New York Times and the Dem media complex helped promote an implausible vast and debunked Grand Trump-Putin Collusion Conspiracy Hoax to explain Hillary's election loss to someone they despise, I find it a bit bizarre if not funny to read this in the pages of the "All the News Its Most Vocal Readers and Editors Deem Fit to Print" New York Times.
3
The charge of a "conspiracy") forget the red herring of "collusion") WASN'T "debunked." It was simply labeled "impossible to fully validate," partly because of the unique position the target of this investigation occupies.
The HUNDREDS of interchanges and contacts between elements of the Russian autarchy and the Trump campaign may--repeat may--fall short of the legal definition of "conspiracy." But one has to be hopelessly in the Fox News/Donald Trump to call the Mueller report an "exoneration" on the subject of conspiracy/collusion--to say nothing of the Report's far more conclusive delineation of multiple examples of obstruction of justice.
But in a Trump world, their side not only wins all ties--they get the benefit of the doubt on most of the issues where Trump's opponents have a clear but not exactly definitive edge.
But the bottom line for me is I positively HATE reading a Ross Douthat column where I am almost totally in agreement!
5
RD has taken his baby steps...
1
An excellent essay on the requirement of a kernel or even a whiff of plausibility to establish a conspiracy narrative no matter how outrageous it might seem to be. With regard to Epstein we are subjected to two foul odors at the very minimum. One is Trump’s need to project his own improper behavior on to others and the second is the real conspiracy of the first Epstein plea deal and what and who it shielded.
11
It is not every day that I find reason to agree with Ross Douthat.
Now if we could find an amicable reason to abandon misleading labels like conservative and liberal in a society which was at its greatest when it adhered to the American school of philosophy of John Dewey, pragmatism.
3
Isn't there just a little bit of sleight-of-hand going on here?
Initially, Mr. Douthat is clearly talking about the alleged conspiracy ended in the murder of Epstein.
However, he finishes by alluding to a supposed conspiracy that aided and protected Epstein relating to his sexual predilections.
Let's not confuse the two. And even as to the second, do we know whether it was indeed a conspiracy, as the term is usually used, or was it the more figurative "conspiracy=of-silence" - i.e., people looking the other way?
As to Trump, of course he's talking about Clinton, just like he talked about Clinton during the campaign when more than a dozen women came out and alleged Trump assaulted them.
Trump wants you to forget that he was Epstein's friend, too.
10
"Sometimes it’s a kind of unconscious connivance, in which institutions and actors behave in seemingly concerted ways because of shared assumptions and self-interest. "
I recall an interview with Spiro Agnew's attorney as his house was crumbling around his ears. When the attorney was asked if he thought that there was a conspiracy among the press, etc, he replied that there was "a conspiracy by osmosis" and explained that what he meant was that no group of people had met and hatched a plot, but that there were a lot of people whom had a mutual interest in bringing him down.. No coordination was required--just shared assumptions and self-interest.
3
Hard to overstate the damage the Russian collusion and Steele dossier did to previously sober, if biased as we all are, voices.
It is far more rational to believe that an abandoned mother could want her child, let's say accidentally born 4 weeks early abroad, listed as born in USA than that numerous current and former security people in Putin's Russia would blab out over skype to some Brit has been the secrets of a historic intelligence coup of Putin's FSB having compromised and controlling a major American political player who may even become a president. If that nonsense scenario is possible and presented as such by the most established sources of information -than everything is.
3
The facts are clear that by virtue of their association with Epstein, both Trump and Clinton may have benefited from Epstein's silencing (many others as well). But Trump supporters are blind to the former and adamant about the latter. "Trump had nothing to gain from Epstein's death, Clinton had everything." was the gist of the Trump supporter's tweets.
You can't make this stuff up.
8
Conspiracy theories are seductive because they seem to provide a shortcut around self-education, and to be frank, they're often entertaining. They also flatter our egos: "I'm in on the secret!"
Yet rejecting them has seldom meant I've rejected the existence of a mystery. Rather, I've simply accepted that I don't know what's really going on -- and that's okay.
Evaluating conspiracy theories requires we bring the same skepticism -- not reflexive denial, but willingness to question -- to them that we bring to evaluating potential online scams.
5
The most effective way to counter conspiracy theories is with investigative journalism. Good investigative journalists ask questions and remain alert to clues, which they follow. They don’t assume and insinuate; they show.
10
Unfortunately, conspiracy theory followers will not listen to reasoned discourse. Arguing with them only steels their resolve to believe and promote their wacko ideas. It part of the pathos.
1
As has been said before, “just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you.”
Conspiracy theories are often like generalizations - they get started because there’s an underlying truth to them.
At the same time they’re often like the doctor who is far better than his peers at noticing important small symptoms, but almost invariably then draws the wrong conclusion about what their combination indicates is the problem.
1
One of the lead indicators for the health of a democracy is the prevalence of conspiracy theories.
Lets be clear:
1) Donald Trump did not invent these, but he has exasperated them. Its clear that he is ok with Qanon. He has praised Alex Jones. He repeatedly attacks/discredits the press.
2) The right has as far as I can remember always had a far greater problem with the nuts.
3) The left joining in on the fever dream of conspiracy theories is inevitable. "Russia Hoax" it was not. Nor was everything said about it true. We have a morally compromised president who's actions will fuel the fire for conspiracy theories on the left.
We are approaching the point where you cannot know what to believe anymore, which is sadly what this president is aiming at, whether he knows it or not.
12
Barr needs to recuse himself as his connections to the case are too suspicious. Barr's father hired Epstein as a teacher at the Dalton school despite not having a degree and this gave Epstein access to wealthy folks he was able to con out of $. Barr represents Trump is client who he is desperate to protect and if compromising info was discovered involving Trump who was connected to Epstein ,Barr would be in a position to dismiss it as he feels the president cannot be investigated for any crime for any reason at any time. Barr is too anxious to control this investigation which involves his justice dept which he heads up. Barr should recuse but he won't as Roy Cohn would not protecting Trump for the oligarchs is the GOP mission.
14
@REBCO
Barr pulled a Beauregard, recused himself, in early July when Epstein was indicted. The next day he unrecused himself. Somebody “woke” him.
Another conspiracy theory element to add to the morass.
2
Can you share documentation that Epstein was hired by Barr’s father at Dalton? Or is it just rumor?
Speaking of conspiraces, it's very interesting that Donald Trump has accused the Clintons of orchestrating the suicide of Jeffery Epstein in his recent tweets. Mr Trump has a long history of accusing others of exactly the faults and crimes he is guilty of (racism, conspiring with Russia, hiring illegal immigrants, failing to pay income taxes, etc). There is also ample video evidence and print reporting of Mr Trump's own repeated association with Jeffery Epstein and of Mr Trump's inappropriate presence in the dressing rooms of female contests at teenage beauty pageants he owned. Perhaps Mr Trump doth protest too loudly yet again? A full investigation of Mr Trump's role in Mr Epstein's crimes and his recent death while in federal custody are clearly in order.
27
"hacks, bots and rubles to sow discord in the United States and Western Europe"
Sow discord? Please define. A very, very meaningless two words. Another one we hear is "interfere with our elections." Interfere? Please define. Some more phrases one hears: "promoted conflicting positions" and "promoted and made falsehood remarks. ????
Yikes, this kind of thing happens millions of time a day by millions of people!
The tiny amounts of money Russia paid for social media could not even come close to the regular "discord" that happen online every day.
"there is a Russian plot against the West — " Not any more than US plots against many countries, day in, day out such as Venezuela, Iran, and any other country that our government thinks is a threat. We intimidate them, we secretly send in the CIA to "disrupt them, " to "sow discord" and even worse to starve their people into submission such as in Yemen. We have been the worst imperialist in the history of mankind and Russia has done very, very little to interfere in our democracy. I forgot to mention"Radio Europe" which no has a new name. Millions of dollars to send propaganda radio messages into foreign countries.
1
Conspiracies aren't fanciful, they exist as criminal acts under the United States Code: Chapter 18, §137-138: "If two or more persons conspire either to commit any offense against the United States ... "
Was Epstein murdered in prison? How about Sandra Bland? Nobody knows for sure but what the two had in common is somebody didn't like what they were saying or about to say. Cause and effects/potential consequence are suggestive.
Also suggestive are the post-facto actions of the authorities. What are the US Attorney and the Texas DA trying to cover up ... and why?
The problem with conspiracies are not their falseness or ambiguities but rather their foundational truth: that our leaders are both short-sighted and diabolical, what takes place out of sight are pieces of the same monstrous whole. What makes conspiracy iffy is that the leaders work hard to be seen as something different from what they are!
Considering Epstein's activities, his associates, the status of his clients and the years long efforts on the part of the establishment to diminish his crimes and give him cover, his murder is not fanciful, it was in fact, reasonable, even predictable.
An elite that will casually destroy entire countries thousands of miles away then rationalize about it, like Vietnam or Iraq or Libya has no problem doing away with an accused pedophile in a New York City jail.
9
The hallmark of the conspiracy theory is something called confirmation bias. Confirmation and bias and conspiratorial thinking turn scientific rationalism on it's head. A scientific thinker proposes a hypothesis and tries to prove it wrong. Failure to do so validates the hypothesis. A conspiracy theorist tries to prove his theory right, only looking for evidence that supports his theory and ignoring evidence to the contrary. His bias is towards anything that confirms his theory. Most of our modern secular institutions are based on scientific rationalism. This includes the U.S. Constitution, the 4th Estate (the modern press), medicine, law, finance - pretty much everything except religion. It is important to recognize conspiratorial thinking and confirmation bias because it is a corruption of everything our nation was founded upon.
Our president is not really a conspiracy theorist; he's just a liar. He doesn't believe his own nonsense, but he knows that the conspiracy minded will follow any shred of evidence offered towards their preferred conclusion.
Want to discredit the nation's first black President among racists? Just keep insisting he's from Kenya. Want to discredit the Clintons among the Q-anon crowd and deflect attention from your own association with Jeffrey Epstein? Just keep making outrageous claims that Bill Clinton (who is not in charge of the Federal Government) had him killed. Even Ross Douthat may fall in line.
9
The water is murky because we know the government and foreign agents deliberately spread misinformation, and it's easier to do now with social media and biased reporting than ever before.
7
Great column, Mr. Douthat (even though you misunderstand the evidence of trump and trump-team "collusion" with 'Putin & Co.,' pre- and/or post-Mueller's report, as 'conspiratorially bogus,' or 'manufactured' … and -- farther from 'the mark' -- as not so much "evidence," but merely "hysterical" imagininations).
1
You can be open to the concept of conspiracies and collusion, and you can expect thorough investigation, and those two ideas can exist in your brain independent of each other.
This essay encourages people to come to tenuous, gut-based conclusions and then to leap to ridiculous overarching worldviews. Disappointing.
1
The whole premise of this article is overstated: that journalists role their eyes at certain allegations because of similarities to wild conspiracy theories. A journalist from the Miami Herald brought the whole Epstein affair to light. And wasn't it the Boston Globe that pulled the first string on clerical child abuse? And who figured things out about Harvey Weinstein? Would these journalists have pursued these stories if they were so subject to the cognitive limitations this writer describes? I doubt it.
A wild conspiracy theory flies in the face of plausibility. Sure, President Clinton is probably squirming away right now, but how exactly can he have had a prisoner murdered in his cell? Or, together with the entire Democratic party establishment, run a pedophilia ring out of a neighborhood pizza parlor?
Most of us have a common sense understanding of the ways in which institutions silence the weak to avoid scandal. So the Catholic church's attempt to cover up priests' sexual abuse of children is not implausible at all. Adult knowledge of the world also helps. I can recall a friend in 1990, telling me how he had been "fondled" by priests. Neither is Harvey Weinstein anything but completely plausible- Hadn't we all hard of the "casting couch" since we were children? As to Jeffrey Epstein, why should anyone be surprised that powerful and rich men set themselves up to be unbothered as they predate on underage girls?
6
When I mentioned his death, every normie I came across reflexively uttered Clinton. Conflating sci-fi fantasy like aliens with something physically plausible doesn't make sense. Having no evidence for conspiracy didn't stop the House from pursuing impeachment against Trump. How does the prison in a top-3 city in the entire world lose track of the world's reigning most-famous criminal after his first suicide attempt and the same day he was in court? We all get government incompetence, but this isn't a mundane task, this is literally your lead story for the past month. All eyeballs are on this. To blindly accept nothing suspicious happened is simply idiotic. Then what is the point of your life as a journalist? Just parrot what some source said, or actually investigate?
5
Assumes an omnicompetence that doesn’t exist. Yaasss. Thanks for putting into words the primary problem with conspiracy theories.
Enough with the conspiracy theories. The only conspiracy is that the truth will never be told. Why would anyone in Trumpistan want the truth to get out? So much more entertaining for the so called president to tweet baseless lies and continue to push the country into distracting chaos. Now that that’s out of the way. Here’s my explanation:
Autoerotic asphyxiation. The man had insatiable sexual needs. He is jailed & unable to continue his dose of sex with others. So he takes matters into his own hands, maximizes his pleasure & goes a bit too far & suffocates.
His bottomless pit of sexual needs explains his demands for mansion imprisonment where he could continue sneaking in whomever he wanted through his private security detail.
The judge denies bail. So he finds himself in jail having to go cold jerky and he engages in autoerotic asphyxiation. The first set of marks found on his neck were not from suicide attempt but he & DOJ couldn’t admit it.
He is placed in suicide watch and has absolutely no privacy and is dying to get released. After a miraculous recovery from suicidal ideation he is in his own cell without a cell mate & free again to pleasure himself. And so he does but this time he didn’t end his session in time because he was counting on the 30 minute visit by the guard to interrupt him in time. The guard stood him up so he died.
There are numerous forensic cases in the literature like this scenario. The conspiracy will be the fallacy of his suicide.
6
Uh, the Russian interference in the 2016 election is NOT a conspiracy theory despite the attempts of Trump and Republicans to state so. It is well established by numerous lines of inquiry.
16
In the interest of "further unraveling of scandals that would have seemed, until now, too implausible to be believed", there are questions that the press should be able to answer now -- without waiting for the DOJ's investigation of itself -- that would shed some light on the likelihood that a suicide attempt could go undetected for hours in the MCC Special Housing Unit (SHU):
1. How many inmate deaths have occurred in MCC since it opened and how many of them were classified as suicides or possible suicides?
2. If there were previous suicides/possible suicides, did any involve inmates in the SHU?
3. Is there CCTV coverage inside cells in the SHU or only in hallways?
9
Most conspiracies are right out in the open, like rich and powerful people helping to protect the rich and powerful or members of a profession covering up what is being done wrong to protect themselves and others. Once you get a peak behind the curtain, all falls into place.
I studiously avoid going down the conspiracy rabbit hole...unless I have information or a personal experience that makes the potential to consider it worthwhile. Then, I am at least somewhat willing to look.
I know, for example, that our government conducted experiments with LSD to see if it could be used to convince people to do things they wouldn't otherwise do. I have seen official documents and film of the experiments. PLUS, I had an acquaintance in my work long ago who himself was used as a test subject for LSD (years later was arrested for possessing a large amount of marijuana).
So, here's my question: if there were other experiments of a similar nature, did they get out of hand? Did some of them escape "the lab"? Could this be one possible explanation for the mass shootings we have across America? Something needs explaining.
When I was a teenager and hitching my way into work before getting a drivers license, I was once picked up by two women who said they were going to a convent. They wanted me to go along because, they said, there were lots of pretty nuns there. This was utterly shocking, but the scandals in the Catholic church, after that strange event, were not much of a surprise later.
5
In reply to my own comment, in regard to violence in our society, there is no particular need to imagine that it has been created by artificial means. In other words, government involvement, accidental or otherwise, should not be a "prime suspect" but what I am trying to say is that, based on what is known about what the govt. did, it should not be seen as out of the question and, if possible, bears some responsible investigation. Conspiracy believers, however, always just jump to a conclusion based on just a little bit of circumstantial evidence. I do not propose to join them, ever.
Ultimately, hanging on tight to an unproven conspiracy theory traps the individual either in untruth or fantasy, both of which are destructive. Facts matter and there are many things that can never be fully known, which is no reason to give way to imagination over reality.
1
What exactly was the point of this opinion column? Did the author assume that some of his readers were QAnon believers? Or, conversely, that any of his readers did not believe that Jeffrey Epstein committed some outrageous crimes and was indeed involved in some real conspiracies?
It doesn't appear that Mr. Douthat was indeed trying to sway anyone's opinion on these issues. With all due respect, it is hard for me not to dismiss the entire column as simply an excuse to, once again, accuse everybody who still believes the Russian interference in the 2016 election was both significant and consequential of being paranoid conspiracists.
4
Eugene Robinson said this morning (I paraphrase) that it's "funny" dis-Barr is outraged that Epstein was not on suicide watch. Afterall, it was dis-Barr's responsibility along with dump since Epstein was in Federal custody. This doublespeak adds to the conspiracy theories and that's why dump & co do it. We need an independent counsel to investigate the Epstein matter, including dis-Barr and dump's involvement.
9
Never underestimate the destructive power of incompetence. And don't be so naïve as to think some people in organizations do not conspire to cover up incompetence. It requires very few people to cover up lot's of incompetence, at least for a while.
8
Conspiracy theories are products of weak minds. It’s far more difficult to identify what actually happened, in which case it’s called journalism or history. Let’s engage in the latter.
2
I would submit that the reality of his situation hit Epstein as he saw a bleak and terrifying future ahead. Incarcerated life is not easy for people who prey on youths. The existential reality is well-known. And Epstein is not the first person being held to kill himself.
According to Department of Justice statistics from 2016, jail suicides have risen in the past decade. The number is 45 per 100K inmates, although the rate is double that for white males. More suicides occur in jail than prison by people awaiting trial, after an average stay of 9 days. Of those, half occur in the general population, while 20 percent occur in segregated or special housing. Further, the report states, staff training and expertise are generally thinner in a jail than a prison.
Sometimes life is a drag and the Clintons have nothing to do with the giant mistakes one makes.
4
Because Bill Clinton's entanglement with Epstein, it will be very hard to get to the truth. Thank you.
1
All hail to America's best journalists.
The most effective guardian against our villains and conspiracy hoaxsters is our Constitution's explicit provision for a Free Press.
Boy, have I come to profoundly treasure the First Amendment profoundly! I regard my recent paid subscriptions to reliable news sources as a civic duty, on the order of any charity or organization contribute to.
We would know *nothing* about Epstein, the Catholic Church, the Pentagon Papers and so on but for the relentless, deep-dive, skilled work of professional investigative journalists like Woodward and Bernstein, the Spotlight crew, Dylan Farrow, and now Julia K. Brown, et. al.
And for journalists like these, I am grateful to their (imperfect and increasingly corporate-owned/commercially-driven) employers like the Washington Post, the New York Times, The Miami Herald, The New Yorker, The Atlantic, The Boston Globe, Texas Monthly, the LA Times, and others.
(Support your local newspaper before it disappears!)
Where would we and our vaunted democratic republic be today without America's (still) Free Press?
6
There is no need to cast aside the obvious fact that Epstein was a guy that had lead a life of pleasure and was facing an almost certain « rest of life » in prison.
There is no need to not take into consideration the idea that he wanted to be dead.
A likely scenario is a "honey pot" operation ran by an intelligence agency with Epstein blackmailing the victims. This could explain where his money came from, why he wasn't kept in jail after his first trial, why his co-conspirators were not arrested, and why his private island not raided the same time as his house
4
I agree completely. The idea that Epstein sold his young victims for money, or used them to blackmail important people, is ludicrous. Collecting information and evidence of sexual crimes by important men, for sale to intell services to use as kompromat, is the only explanation for his scam that makes sense to me. Of course, we'll never learn which security services purchased Epstein's work product.
2
Ross leaves out one critical delineation: there are 'conspiracy' theories put forth by potential victims, or those in close circles who have aided or protested from within. It's worth listening to these people.
Then there are conspiracy theories put forth by those whose only goal is to agitate, confuse, or misguide the public (i.e., Trump and birtherism). These people are almost always a waste time.
6
I generally don't give conspiracy theories much notice. But why is Trump champing at the bit to blame the Clintons for Epstein's death?
Trump himself certainly had a connection to Epstein. And Attorney General Barr-- the man responsible for federal prisons-- had another weird connection, through his father, who hired Epstein under strange circumstances.
It really does look like Trump and Barr have something to hide. Otherwise, why would they be so eager to push a flimsy case against the Clintons?
19
As a physician, I want to correct an implication of your critique of Marianne Williamson. She does represent a pseudoscientific view of healthcare which is dangerous and has contributed to the antivaxxer movement and this year's measles outbreaks. The example you used, however, the statement that "in this country we have a sickness system, not a health system" is right on target. We have devoted too little to healthy lifestyles and preventive care. Even the way we treat sickness is outmoded with fragmented, episode-based fee-for-service care that misses many opportunities to preserve quality of life and prevent complications. Like the conspiracy theories with a kernel of truth, this shouldn't be dismissed just because of who raised it. I wish more of the candidates would bring it up.
10
A lot of this makes a lot of sense. But on this one: "The medical consensus is generally a better guide than crankishness; even so, the tendency of cranks to predict medical scandals before they’re recognized is real."
Would like some references. Assuming there is a body of correct predictions of medical scandals by cranks, how many incorrect ones are there? (A broken 12 hour analog dial faced clock is right twice a day)
1
What is true about all conspiracy theories is that groups confer benefits on their members and members have a self-interest in protecting the group. There are all kinds of "members only" groups. There are occupational and professional groups -- doctors, scientists, bankers, computer technologists, police -- religious groups, racial and ethnic groups, and of course political parties, sometimes overlapping. Membership has its benefits. Money, prestige, and power chief among them. Epstein probably turned his own personal interest -- sex with girls -- into a benefit for the rich and powerful club he wanted to join. Everything after that was a matter of the group protecting itself. Maybe even to the point of murder. It's not like it hasn't happened before.
7
Another example might be 9/11, in which a failure of intelligence agencies to coordinate their efforts, and a lack of imagination to see the threat and prevent it gets extrapolated by conspiracy theorists into being an inside job perpetrated by our own leaders to give reason for going to war. That we never got all the answers only fuels this outlandish idea.
8
The most dangerous problem with conspiracy theories is that they make people feel like they have no power, that there is an invisible hand wielded by powerful people and interests. There is nothing more dangerous in a democracy. This applies to situations like Jeffrey Epstein and other, more integral parts of our democracy like voting, political contributions, and the election process itself.
8
Ask yourself, who was behind the assassination of President Kennedy? Was Oswald working alone? No one believes that. Was it the Russians? Was it Cuba? Vice President Johnson? The mafia? We will never know since Oswald was assassinated a few days later. How many powerful American politicians and businessmen were implicated in Epstein's crimes? Governor Richardson? Trump? The Clintons? The list has hundreds of names? Why would anyone consider the odds were different than 50 / 50 that Epstein was assassinated rather than committed suicide.
11
I'm sure, then, that security cameras in the prison will show the perpetrators.
Only Russ Douthat could find a way to earnestly equate the Mueller Report with UFOs and aliens.
18
He did it well.
This liberal, Catholic, blue collar, college educated, member of the lower orders, agrees with everything he said- including calling out our own Church.
1
It’s reassuring to believe that people are competent enough to be conspiratorial. It gives us hope that we can pinpoint the villain and then save the day.
That so many people are hopelessly incompetent and that much misery is caused by sheer blundering is depressing. It’s harder to fix stupid than it is to fix sinister.
8
Fun to watch and read the establishment trying to cover this up with the "conspiracy theory" tarp. Move along folks, nothing to see here.
I think this time, they went a little too far. They stressed tested the breaking point of the public's credulity and broke it. Everyone, and I mean everyone, knows something went down.
How stupid do they think we are?
11
Perhaps Russian and Saudi shenanigans helped pave the way. These appeared to be flagrant acts, but in the end, the public could do nothing.
3
Extraordinarily, endlessly stupid.
That is how stupid, “They”, think we are.
Let’s prove them wrong, shall we?
2
Conspiracy? Probably not—but inattention is a perfect solution—creates a situation to distract us all. Epstein’s death is very convenient for Barr, who can be “shocked, shocked, do you hear me?” and blame the usual incompetents. It gives Trump’s base and Faux News something to exploit. Mindful of the fact I’ve watched too many episodes of Black Mirror, I still wonder, “Where is the all the closed circuit tv coverage?”
May all Epstein’s victims find justice and peace.
6
Several legitimate and serious questions that Ross conveniently neglects to deal with in connection with Epstein’s “suicide”; (1) who would have a strong and obvious political motive immediately to float an unsupported and fantastical conspiracy theory about Epstein’s “suicide”? (2) who has had at least three women publicly (and in one case under oath) allege that he raped them? (3) who “partied”’(???) with Epstein for years? (4) who publicly boasted “I could shoot someone (have someone strangled??) on Fifth Avenue and my supporters wouldn’t care.”?
20
Sex is the third leg in the "Money, Power, Sex" stool. The "Me Too" Movement has already laid bare an entire world that I knew nothing about. And now, given what we already know about the hijinks of Silvio Berlusconi and Dominique Strauss-Khan, it would not be surprising if an "Eyes Wide Shut" world also existed among the rich and powerful; and that Jeffrey Epstein was one of its movers and shakers.
Whether or not his secrets will die with him, or if a light will be shined on this insidious world of child exploitation by the rich and powerful - well, we'll just have to see.
Since these women were just girls when it occurred, and probably no names were used, it seems to me the first step would be to show them groups of pictures of men, with Epstein's bunch randomly mixed in, to see if they point to some of them -- and then match dates and travels.
7
The fact that Hofstadter published his essay panning conspiracy theories November 21, 1963, makes me suspicious right there.
4
Just revisit Eyes Wide Shut, and you’ll get the picture. All societies rot from the top. George Washington’s republic has degenerated into child sex-trafficking for the rich and bored, just like Imperiak Rome. What a shock! Trump and Epstein should be the poster boys for the triumph of narcissistic decadence in the age of the Boomers who took America down for fun and profit.
8
Great piece! I just want to add a funny comment that I believe Trevor Noah made about the UFO matter: “Hey, and if there really were aliens visiting earth, Trump would have blabbed by now.”
2
Many powerful people can breathe a sigh of relief now that Epstein’s dead. Enough money to go around so many of the victims cases can be settled quietly. Could be he was murdered or more probably allowed to take his own life. Government and Corporations often lie so it’s up to investigators/journalists to get to the truth
6
Eureka - a Douthat column that doesn't leave me wanting to bang my head against a wall!
5
I have come to enjoy his columns very much indeed, even when I do not agree with him.
Read him carefully, he is always on to something, or at least explaining very, very well- none of the other current crop of op-ed writers seem to know what a counter argument is or how to introduce one- it is all propaganda all day long.
Thanks Ross Douthat.
1
I bet that The Bookies/Betting Shops would've being offering very low odds that Epstein would ever get to testify.
Your opening statement sums it up perfectly....
"The challenge in thinking about a case like the suspicious suicide of Jeffrey Epstein"
Sure he killed himself ...wink wink nudge nudge !
In less than 4 days you dismiss any suspicion/conspiracy theories , all without any investigation of the facts ...I smell a rat and no it's not in Baltimore ... it's a lot closer to home ..your home!
5
Having been a former public defender for 10 years, I've already written several pieces explaining in detail how bad the facts related to Epstein’s suicide are. Yet your claim to be skeptical of conspiracy theories is remarkable.
Your "thing" is not just promoting, but actually formulating conspiracy theories. You wrote a host of columns here, and then in a book, claiming Pope Francis is like Donald Trump, and also a "heretic" and "chief plotter" of a shadowy group of Masons intent on destroying the Catholic Church.
You did the same in defending Brett Kavanaugh, weaving an outrageous and dangerous conspiracy theory to justify Kavanaugh's conduct and "show" how he was scapegoated. You were "more convinced than ever" that Democrats used Christine Blasey Ford as a pawn to frame Kavanaugh for another man's crimes, just as "Alfred Dreyfus was framed" by anti-Semites when another man (Major Ferdinand Walsin Esterhazy, a Christian) passed military secrets to the Germans.
Dreyfus was totally innocent, yet a perfect fall-guy. Virulent anti-Semitism meant most already expected the highest ranking Jewish soldier in the French military to be traitor. Dreyfus was court-martialed, found guilty of treason, sentenced to life behind bars on Devil's Island, and in a public ceremony, paraded before a crowd that shouted "Death to the Jew." It's so similar to what happened to Kavanaugh, I can't imagine how everyone else missed it.
Epstein's suicide is fishy, but you have no credibility here.
8
I have wondered what the Q meant. "Donald Trump is personally supervising an operation against “deep state” child sex traffickers." I bet! How unthinking can these blind followers be? In 2015 there was a lawsuit by Jane Doe who asserted that 45 raped her at an Epstein party. The lawsuit was dropped due to threats of harm, according to the attorney. For this reason alone, Barr, who functions more like 45's personal attorney than AG, needs to recuse himself from this case. If he remains in charge, who will ever believe that the truth will be known?
13
The best way to measure and in turn undermine a conspiracy theory is to analyze the depth and breadth of the case being made. How many people are involved? How many agencies are involved? How much time has it been going on? How much money has been spent, stolen, or misdirected, and how many hands touched it all? And what are the benefit/gains made for all the involved parties? Even the lowest one on the ladder.
By their very nature large party, real conspiracies tend to fall apart very quickly. Its why the Italian Mafia became so easy to break apart, it became too large, the "Families" over-reached.
If a CT involves multiple Govt agencies, across large amounts of time, and agents - it ain't real! Because of the extremely leaky nature of Govt agencies. A small team, insular and cut-off, maybe even off the books? Yes, they can get away with crimes, but basic criminal activities are not what the CT crowd are fixated on.
The current crop of CT's being promulgated by Q-anon, Jones, anti-vaxxers, etc, cant pass these tests. Most just fall apart when looking at their timelines. Or where they do business. (A child peddling pizza parlor?! Lol! Drugs, yes! Stolen cell-phones yes! Illegally labeled olive oils, yes!)
Conspiracies demand insularity. They demand a hierarchy that can and does exert severe control over the whole. Like the Roman Catholic Church. Or a private, dedicated, sycophantic army.
Or a slimy, lying, greedy, clan of narcissists...aka; The Trumps.
5
Today's NYT front page lays out how the Epstein 'case' is going to move forward.
The piece by Mr. Stewart is the tantalizing bait about what men of influence and money partied with Epstein. There are names to be known!! Their revelation dies with Mr. Epstein.
Then the article about the investigations going forward now that Epstein is dead. AG Barr has made it clear that some mid level jail personal will be named as the fall guy for not assigning a guard to watch Epstein. End of that aspect of the story.
Moving forward, AG Barr will focus on the people responsible for helping find and traffic his victims. AG Barr appears to be uninterested in pursuing the rape allegations of the the victims or that at the least those rape charges will be second to the sex trafficking charges.
Ok, here I go. How convenient that in focusing on the sex trafficking charges the most likely person to know about that aspect of Epstein's sordid life is no where to be found. One Ms. Maxwell.
And how convenient that in focusing on sex trafficking any names in any future rape cases to be brought can be withheld by AG Barr as they are not as important in his sex trafficking cases.
So to sum up: The NYT throws out the click bait only to tell us that names will never be known and AG Barr will be handling the future cases to make sure a missing pimp (Ms. Maxwell) will be charged, or won't she?
Because the serious rape charge against Epstein and Trump was completely ignored and buried.
9
This is so much better reasoned than the pat dismissal of all conspiratorial suspicions that Douthat's colleague Charlie Warzel published the other day.
3
Sandra Bland/Jeffrey Epstein: two cities, one well-traveled murderer.
Pizzagate gave conspiracy theories a bad name.
6
How disgusting but predictable that the Fox News ticket lists Jeffrey Epstein as a “bad boy financier”. The employees of Fox are basically two groups of people: men who sexually harass/assault women, and women who have been sexually harassed/molested as girls. Ugh.
4
What provokes conspiracy theories in the Epstein case is the company this man kept. His alliances with rich and powerful men and his skill at alluring young women to his abode make for a frothy conspiracy to muse or embellish.
There’s a line in the movie The Shootist that says something like ‘Once you think you’ve got the conspiracy figured out - POOF! - it’s gone.’ There’s a lot of people that should be hoping that most of these Epstein conspiracies go away because, as it’s also been said, ‘dead men tell no tales.’
3
Looking for a Jeffrey Epstein co-conspirator? Start with Alexander Acosta, former Miami US Attorney. If he had done his job, Epstein would be in jail now and we wouldn’t be discussing Barr’s coverups for himself and his boss.
4
What's also missing is that television, the mainstream press (including the times), and (of course) politicians have corporate interests to protect which affect their reporting. Look back to 2007 when the NYT accused medical personnel of exaggerating health problems of first responders which caused many respected physicians that put themselves on the line immediately after the disaster, to have their lives and careers threatened. Someone was protecting someone, but it wasn't the doctors or the first responders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/07/nyregion/07sinai.html
I personally have had my comments blocked for criticizing the actions of Israel, even though I described personal experiences I did not read about or imagine but actually witnessed. The press is made of people that protect their own interests and fortunes, the same way as Epstein though they may be less nefarious. The sad truth is there are always victims.
3
The worst thing about the this story is the photo accompanying it. “Bad boy financier Jeffrey Epstein..”. The term “bad boy” suggests “devilishness.” The urban dictionary defines “bad boy: “Stupid male teenagers that have a tendency of breaking the law...”
The sign should have read “Accused child serial rapist Jeffrey Epstein....” the sign in the photo minimizes the monstrosity of his crimes.
7
I was hoping, from reading the headline to this article, that Mr. Douthat would discuss a serious conspiracy theory involving Epstein.
Alas, this op-ed piece is a snoozer, discussing other conspiracy theories like UFO's, instead of Epstein.
The time I spent reading this for Epstein, is the time I could read more pertinent op-ed pieces here.
5
Roger Ebert: "The [Mel] Gibson character in 'Conspiracy Theory' [1997] is a wonderful creation, a guy named Jerry Fletcher who has listened to way too much talk radio. Secrets spin from his fertile imagination and into the incredulous ears of his passengers [base?] ... " Fertile imagination with a gullible base? Sounds familiar ...
You know what's an interesting conspiracy theory, Ross? And this is one that you subscribe to: the idea that there's a man in the sky who sent down his son on a suicide mission in order to wipe out humanity's sins.
6
@PubliusMaximus
This is what you call a snide and gratuitous attack on someone's religious beliefs.
Signed A.N. Atheist.
@PubliusMaximus
People also believed in an international conspiracy to destroy Christianity. Weren't they stupid?
Good column, Ross. I especially love the photo of Fox's ticker tape where Epstein is described as "...bad boy financier". Sure, leave it to Fox, Epstein was just a "bad boy" (and to spell his name incorrectly, "Estein"). Very Trumpian or very Fox, chicken and egg problem.
4
I'm not really sure what this article is trying to say. There's always been a little bit of truth in any conspiracy. That's what helps make them believable in the first place. The fact that there are people in the world that are dishonest, immoral, and self-interested isn't a reason to give credibility to baseless, unverifiable claims. If you make a claim, it's on YOU to support it, not on other people to prove you wrong. This isn't lazy journalism, it's just how the real world should work. Journalists shouldn't be expected to go chasing down every rabbit hole when someone launches a conspiracy theory, especially with a White House that gives no seriousness to making baseless claims all the time. If you have any credible evidence for your claim, sure, follow up on it. If not, you're just enabling lying and delusion, and wasting already limited time that journalists have, when there's plenty out there already not being covered. I'm a little surprised that the NYT would publish this because the content and title especially lean into the idea we should bother investigating this baseless claim, a late-night retweet of a man who I would be embarrassed to introduce as a my senile grandfather. "Yes, grandpa, maybe the Clinton's did organize Epstein's suicide. And Obama wasn't born in the US. And was wiretapping your phones. And..."
Thank you dear New York Times readers. Once again the comments in response are much clearer and veritable than Ross’.
8
There's an explanation for EVERYTHING, including for Douthat's artful column, which seems to be to provide cover to conspiracy theorists. Ross is saying, 'don't dismiss conspiracy theories or you will miss the "underlying realities" in them'.
If one iota of verifiable truth is used to create a stinking pile of paranoia, learn more about the truth in a fact-based news source. And reject the paranoia, as you should this column.
2
I agree with the general import of your column, that most conspiracy theories are flights of fancy. People with 'less access' tend to assume and project all sorts of machinations among powerful people and institutions.
But I dispute your mission as a pundit to downplay the significance of Russia's interference in the 2016 election.
No less than Dan Coats, James Comey, Robert Mueller, and Richard Clarke have raised alarm bells about the seriousness of what the Russian's are doing, yet throughout your columns, while you acknowledge Russian aggression, to a curious degree you dismiss it as being of far less consequence than many like Adam Schiff would claim.
You also downplay how dangerous Donald Trump is to our democracy. It's your go to sentiment -- that we shouldn't freak out, let cooler heads prevail, there's a lot less here to see than the hysterical media would like us to believe.
It's as if you want a prize for being recognized as the only sober pundit in the American media. The realist. A man who as a devoted Catholic cannot but believe a host of absurd dogmas, he's our guide to reality.
Epstein's death IS cause for concern, just not the one Trump alleges.
Trump IS cause for profound concern because he DOES pose a threat to our democracy.
And the Russians DID attack our nation in 2016, and they ARE presently doing so again, undoubtedly in new, innovative ways we have yet to grapple with.
These matters could not be more serious.
7
Thank you, Mr. Douthat. Here is my response.
The JFK Assassination "conspiracy" was a "theory" until the Warren Commission Report was heavily debunked, and the House Select Committee on Assassinations found that "Scientific acoustical evidence establishes a high probability that at least two gunmen fired at the President...The committee believes, on the basis of the evidence available to it, that Kennedy was probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy." Kennedy was killed in 1963; the House Select Committee investigation was completed in 1979.
The Gulf of Tonkin "conspiracy" was a 'theory" until Daniel Ellsberg released the Pentagon Papers, showing that it was a "false flag" attack - an incident that never occurred, but was "blamed" on the "enemy" in order to escalate the war. The Gulf of Tonkin incident "occurred" in 1964; the Pentagon Papers were released in 1971.
As shown above, it can take several years to establish that a conspiracy (and/or cover-up) occurred with respect to what is initially considered (pejoratively) a "conspiracy theory." So as you suggest, people should not be so quick to discount the almost certainly supportable extreme skepticism of many people with respect to Epstein's wildly coincidental and convenient death.
2
If you define "conspiracy theory" to mean suspicion that doesn't pan out, of course they're going to appear ridiculous. But there are some facts that are objectively suspicious.
The current connotations of the term 'conspiracy theory' should not lead us to discount the possibly that people act conspiratorially. People (including criminals) do; we are social creatures.
One problem with trying to tamp down wild suspicions is that often the facts, once they are determined, prove to be stranger than even the wildest of suspicions. See, e.g., cover ups in Irish orphanages, etc.
People have a right to be suspicious about a lot of things, including Epstein's death. People are also impatient for answers, and tend to settle on the first explanation they receive.
And that's the real problem. Even when original suspicions are proven wrong, people cling to them.
Believing in conspiracy theories is as bad as believing in bogus media narratives. Better to treat all information with healthy skepticism and verify it across multiple sources before believing anything. A healthy understanding of who is reporting information and why, as well as looking their work history, will help vet sources as trustworthy or not. Even a "trustworthy" source shouldn't be taken at face value. The best disinfo agents are the ones who report the truth 99% of the time you swallow the important lie 1% of the time they need you to.
Trump’s behavior in the Epstein affair is yet another reminder of why we should get rid of the Electoral College. We wouldn’t have this problem if we let the majority of voters decide our elections instead of a minority.
6
When seeking to understand and explain any observed phenomenon, fundamental principles of the scientific method are universally applied. The first is Ockham’s razor that says when given a choice between two possible theories of causation chose the simplest. The second is to never accept any theory that cannot be tested by gathering evidence and refuted. A third is, that it is impossible to prove a negative proposition such as Epstein could not kill himself without the aid of a conspiracy of the elite.
Whenever debating whether vaccines cause autism, or whether the evil of Epstein is explained by demonic possession and a conspiracy of witches or just reveals corrupted human nature (misplaced sexual desire) protected by immense wealth, pick the simplest, gather evidence and always remember that in explaining any phenomenon, the certainty of absolute truth is impossible to achieve.
2
Thank you Ross, for a voice of sanity.
I don’t know that Epstein was murdered, but it’s pretty darn coincidental. And, of all the insane things that the unravelling of this scandal has uncovered- so far- killing a loose end who knows too much in the joint is the least implausible.
Instead of lecturing us on not believing wild theories, journalists should be shining a light on what is actually going on.
So far, the truth is crazier than any fiction.
Please, keep pulling at the threads.
4
I wouldn't exactly call anxiety over Russian intelligence campaigns against the West "hysteria," considering the successes they've had meddling in elections in Eastern Europe, the NATO states, and in installing Donald Trump into the White House. That's not hysteria, that's deep, deep concern.
Americans and NATO made a huge miscalculation about the "end" of the Cold War, assuming the arms race was at the core of the conflict, and that we had won by bankrupting their economy. Sadly, it turned out that the inexpensive psy-ops stuff that seemed so laughable in the 1960s is what paid off in the long game.
I would humbly suggest to you, Mr. Douthout, that you reexamine your habitual urge to run interference for "your team" (conservatives) in the American politics with rhetoric that belittles and pooh-poohs your liberal "opponents." We Americans have got bigger fish to fry, and we all need to open our eyes a little wider. The Russians have invaded.
5
Good piece, Mr. Douthat.
I've always been weary of conspiracy theories. I guess my poly sci professors really got to me because my brain used to just shut off when I hear "crazy talks of government conspiracies" and "secret societies."
Silly me.
I'm still not convinced of government-centered conspiracies. And though my views are strongly aligned with the left, I don't view conspiracies along party lies. If anything, I view political parties, along with government agencies like NSA and the CIA, as mere tools for a sophisticated network outside of politics, outside of government with origins and ties with the intelligence community.
There's no solid proof that I can point to, but there's just lots that doesn't add up - like the Jeffrey Epstein suicide. That Mr. Epstein's sordid tale even saw daylight is probably the work of the network. They were probably just done with him.
2
One must wonder why Attorney General Barr was so intent upon moving Mr. Epstein from Rikers Island to the Metropolitan Correctional Center. What investment did he have in protecting or not protecting this inmate?
3
I don't think that a person with typical middle class values as I assume Ross Douthat personally holds can get his head around morally "deviant"people like those that ran with Epstein. It seems that dealing with the likes of Epstein is akin to what Jody Foster dealt with upon being assigned to learn about Hannibal Lector. she was only able to understand his near absolute evil incrementally and only then by direct experience, something most of us wouldn't volunteer for. Is it an international cabal staffed by those who really could care less what behaviours their fellow travelers engage and with whomever they net in their traps that could easily morph under the right conditions into cannibalism. Humans have evolved with these outliers.
The only thing I take for granted is that Epstein had many keys in his pocket that could cause all sorts of disruptions to very powerful people if revealed. I'm not at all surprised that he is dead, that somehow he was left alone or on paper he was. I've lived through all.sorts of overt assassinations be it JFK or King and the fact that he was remanded to a set of jailers who apparently had little oversight seems logical.
2
You nailed it again!
what you are asking for is that people need to be open-minded and use critical thinking as they digest the news of the world.
It requires us all to take a breath and ask "what is true?" and "what is real?" instead of assuming that the "other side" is always out to get us or us.
Unfortunately the appalling contribution of the "pathetic peddler of paranoia" makes it very hard to respond to the news in a balanced healthy manner.
How in the world do we now have the convergence of AG Barr, AG Barr's father and Epstein. AG Barr's father hired and fired Epstein in his first teaching position 45 years ago at Dalton School NYC, and AG Barr is now looking into the inexplicable death of Epstein under his watch. You can't make this up. I'm not saying I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the conspiracy theorists think I'm a conspiracy theorist.
4
Me again.
When I finished reading the NYT I came across an article which referenced a viral infection called Epstein Barr Virus. As a I stated earlier, you can’t make this stuff up.
It's entirely possible that Epstein killed himself; it's also possible that it wasn't his idea at all.
All I know is that Attorney General Barr's supposed outrage doesn't have the ring of truth to my ears.
trump and Epstein were like the Two Wild and Crazy Guys of SNL before their falling out. One word from trump and Barr would back all the way off, wouldn't he?
3
There will be many conspiracy theories, about half will be true.
1
I'm glad you didn't write off UFO's. Just because Roswell may not be a UFO event does not mean all these sightings are fake. They're not. As for Epstein well-you can't make this stuff up.
3
Thank you 1,000 times for this column.
1
Yep, Mr. Douthat, sometimes there is indeed a conspiracy that is difficult to believe, difficult initially to prove, and yet sometimes eventually comes to light. Here's one for you:
[After Bill’s election, state troopers told of how they had procured women for him, and one of the procured was Paula Jones. When she came forward, she was abused as trailer-park trash, even though her story of a gross come-on by Clinton in a hotel room was completely credible.]
https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/05/hillary-clinton-enabled-bill-clintons-abuse-women-her-own-standards/
3
Gangs with a few thousand dollars can get people killed in prison but it is impossible for a billionaire to get it done?
A person that could flip on many many wealthy and powerful people for child rape for a easy few years in jail would off himself?
Write what you want I just dont believe it was a suicide.
2
He was a con artist with decades of experience. He conned a few more people into taking him off of suicide watch. That's still the most likely explanation. Occam's Razor strikes again.
Paranoia strikes deep. Yet, a certain degree of paranoia is essential to a functioning Democracy and may even be an essential feature.
The gun lobby should be a major target of this "healthy" paranoia, in the following ways;
1. The gun lobby, regardless of whether its demographic is diverse (or not), is, at this point, a fully functioning arm of White Supremacy. The gun lobby is murderous. Blood on its hand? Please. Directly.
2. The clouding of research associated with gun violence is clear. As clear as the conspiracy theories that opened up big tobacco.
Clearly, we must keep our proverbial journalistic noses to the ground. Epstein is a direct threat to many of the world's most powerful people - probably. We need the great journalists to keep digging and to be as heroic as they can possible be. Dictators can be brought down by words.
I get that the far right is immersed in conspiracy theories and to a certain extent the far left. But a reasonable level of paranoia has to be allowed on both sides, and refuted or supported as necessary by a free press.
If Epstein had already attempted suicide, and now was under suicide watch, surely there would have been a camera in his cell?
Or is the lack of a video just subscribing to conspiracy, when it is easier to explain his death as plain incompetence by the guards?
1
@John F
He had been taken off suicide watch.
1
Conspiracy theories are not correct or incorrect because of their origins or their adherents. Conspiracy theories become conspiracies when facts and reasonable inferences fit their patterns.
1
The step too far is when a conspiracy theory begins to imagine connections that aren’t proven, merely theorized from known facts. Conspiracy fans seem to want to believe that, as the article points out, secret cabals control the world. If that were so life would be so much simpler, because these cabals would have everything organized to suit their purposes. Instead, life is messy and often chaotic. The world is a big place that is far too complex to manage with such complete control. Certainly very wealthy people have the resources to control much more of the people and infrastructure around them, but this control only extends so far before it begins to become impotent. Human nature being what it is, competitive drive will always inspire more wariness amongst the rich and powerful than an urge to cooperate in secret to control the world. I’m sure they do cooperate on occasion to garner a bit of advantage here and there, but I bet they always hold something back from that cooperation to avoid being backed into a corner and outmaneuver by their partner/rival. I think that as your power grows, so does your suspicion of others’ motives.
1
It just feels like there is more to this Epstein story. As far as conspiracies, doubtful the it's the Clintons because anymore who cares. However, Trump is the one who said that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get a way with it.
3
All that had to happen for Mr. Epstein to commit suicide is to have 2 incompetent and/or overworked employees on duty at the same time, especially if one of them was a supervisor. I would have thought that special attention or people would have been devoted, especially since he was a known risk of suicide and it was a high profile case. It was almost predictable that he would take his life, if allowed. Whoever was in charge of scheduling personnel for that night, or any other night, could or should have known the consequence. That is why I thought the head warden would have hand-picked the people guarding Epstein. This is where my suspicions lie.
2
Thank you thank you for this essay. It needed to be said.
2
Ross Douthat is on the money this time.
Follow the ‘conspiracy theories’ and all its actors and influencers and the truth may yet surprise you.
With the exception of some really outlandish ones, most conspiracy theories contain at least an ounce of truth, maybe more.
4
Douthat is trying to indirectly keep the Epstein conspiracy alive. And what is that conspiracy? That the Clintons killed Epstein. The writer knows that he can’t come out and say that, but he wants to not dismiss it either.
Along with that other, great, unsaid conspiracy theory that President Obama was born in Kenya, and his mother took the newborn on an airplane for 12,000 miles to register him in Hawaii.
Again, “conspiracy theories are not all wrong” is just a diversion in order to keep the conspiracy theories alive.
After all, that there is not a shred of evidence about the above cited major conspiracies is proof that the Clinton-Obama international cabal has the influence and ability to scrub all evidence of their nefariousness from the worldwide record.
All the best people say so.
Lee Havey, was he a member of a conspiracy? Well big thinkers want to think he was at the nexus of a CIA, FBI, Cuba, Russia, Mob conspiracy to kill JFK. Multiple shooters in Dealey plaza, blah blah. Probably unlikely, although there are strange parts to the story -- like Jack Ruby being mob associated. But LHO might have been in a conspiracy with one other person, a guy he knew down the street. Not quite as sinister, but still a conspiracy.
WIth Epstein, there are only two explanations. Gross incompetence on the part of one or more people in the correctional system. Seems the likeliest solution but then again, you've got the world's highest profile prisoner in your prison, you'd probably want to make sure he's safe and sound.
The other explanation -- well -- sort of takes you to conspiracy. It may be low level, someone (unknown) paid off a guard to give Epstein the means he needed to kill himself. Someone (maybe the same person) made sure Epstein wasn't watched for a significant period of time and his roommate was transferred. Now, that doesn't sound like a single guard could do all that though.
But that doesn't mean a cabal of fellow sex traffickers paid zillions to shut Epstein up. Maybe it was someone who wanted to make sure Epstein didn't get away with it. Or maybe it was a friend who knew Epstein wanted to die and saw to it he could.
People love "trying to impose narrative order on a world they don’t fully understand — which leads them to imagine implausible scenarios and impossible plots." How did humans cook up the notion of "God," after all?
2
When a shameful or illegal act involves more than one person it risks exposure. When the head count reaches 300K it is about as likely as your dog turning into a lizard. Some one will break stride and spill the beans. In the Epstein instance it is likely that more than just 2 or 3 people have been involved but time may tell.
Please give serious consideration of the use of "elites" in this column. To whom is the author referring? The Trump Administration is rife with elites with ivy league degrees, big pocketbooks, multiple country club memberships, multiple mansions, bespoke suits, and dainty embroidered velvet slippers, who don't exactly make life easy for regular working people. These people aren't even 1 per centers, they're 1/2 per centers of better. While the subject of your column is worthy of a read, the use of the dog whistle word, elites, telegraphs that your vocabulary has been hijacked by the linguistic Body Snatchers who'd love to have you spread their propaganda by adopting their nomenclature. That's not where we want to see any journalist's work dwell.
2
Who has custody of the tapes, notes, etc., removed from Epstein's apartment?
Is it AG Barr and those under his command?
The best recent writing on conspiracy theories is a short essay in "The New Inquiry," "I Want to Believe." The author agrees with Ross's thesis, that conspiracy theories are simplifications of complex issues that point not to the truth, but to the location of that truth. Where the Ross stops, and that author rightly continues, is that conspiracy theories absolve us of the responsibility to act. If the world is being run by lizard people or some kind of Semitic cabal, overthrowing this almost supernatural power is outside of our means. (Un)fortunately, it is on us to take back power from the inept, disgusting ring of pedophiles, financiers, and failsons of the rich who are shakily shepherding this creaking and unequal system.
https://thenewinquiry.com/i-want-to-believe/
Russian trolls specialize in viralizing conspiracy theories. Amplifying suspicion with fake or fake-like videos works so well that bad actors around the world have taken notice and are joining the party, usually the Republican Party.
1
I too am a conspirist. I believe that America is not the land of the free and beacon of democracy but a violent country in which the jungle capitalism, religious bigotry, racism and conservatives bent on placing the yoke - economic and mental - on the majority is in full swing, especially now that an uncouth usurper has taken the reign with his minions...
Sad to be such pessimist I know, but I do hope to be proven wrong!
However you slice it, it IS a fact that Epstein (and his brother?) operated in plain sight for decades. His lover and partner Ghislaine's father, Robert Maxwell, used his control of media and draconian British libel laws to hide his criminality - British media knew all about it but could not legally report it.
I seriously doubt that no one at the NYT, WaPo, CNN, Fox, etc., knew something terrible was happening under their noses.
Or this is another consequence of the MeToo movement. As even Catherine McKinnon has noticed, MeToo could not have happened had Hillary been elected.
Impossible to believe anything that comes out of Trump and his mouthpieces, including Barr. Not all lies are Trump’s, but all Trump’s words are lies.
1
Epstein met a very Putin-like end. Was he a “friend” to Vlad? Now there’s a conspiracy theory.
1
It is irresponsible to compare the foundation of the opioid crises, essentially the promotion of a drug, that, by its nature, tends towards abuse (addictive, acute withdrawal, tolerance, euphoria, etc.) with vaccines and psychotherapies such as antidepressants (you linked to a New Yorker article) that do not. Please separate your irresponsible claim that the public should be wary of “medical products” into those that are addictive (i.e. opioids) and those that are not (i.e. most pharmaceuticals). It is good for society to be wary of addictive medications as they should be taken sparingly and only when needed and it is similarly harmful for individuals in society to avoid life-saving and life-improving medications that lack addictive properties because a conspiracy theorist or a NYtimes journalist attempting to articulate a fundamental wariness individuals should have when “conspiracy theories in general” are dismissed, decides to post a ~1500 word article on the topic. Generalizing about the “medical establishment” is irresponsible for this short article because this “medical establishment,” is large (~18% GDP) and composed, predominately of, good actors, and implying that the public should be wary of this establishment, because of the few bad actors, deserves a far more thorough and nuanced discussion in order to attribute bad deeds to the bad actors while maintaining public trust in the vast majority of medicine; that which is provided by good actors.
Excellent journalism - wish you could get over to the UK and sort out The Times!
Interesting piece. One note: Ross and other writers need to check the definition of pedophilia. A pedophile has a deviant attraction to prepubescent children. Men like Epstein are sexual predators, violating teenage girls who have reached puberty. The misuse of the term can test the credibility of the writer.
1
“Every conservative who rolls her or his eyes at the “Russia hoax” is in danger of dismissing the reality that there is a Russian plot against the West ... This effort is far weaker and less consequential than the paranoid center believes...”
~ Ross Douthat
————
“The U.S. is ill-equipped to counter the increasingly brazen political warfare Russia is waging to undermine democracies, the Pentagon and independent strategists warn in a detailed assessment that happens to echo much bipartisan criticism of President Donald Trump's approach to Moscow.
The more than 150-page white paper, prepared for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and shared with POLITICO, says the U.S. is still underestimating the scope of Russia's aggression, which includes the use of propaganda and disinformation to sway public opinion across Europe, Central Asia, Africa and Latin America. The study also points to the dangers of a growing alignment between Russia and China, which share a fear of the United States' international alliances and an affinity for ‘authoritarian stability.’”
Russia beating U.S. in race for global influence, Pentagon study says
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/30/pentagon-russia-influence-putin-trump-1535243
Just a thought from up here in Canada. Paranoia only makes sense when everybody hates you or quoting Dorothy Parker: "It is better to be talked about negatively than not talked about at all."
If Epstein's suicide is not the result of a conspiracy, it's the result of gross incompetence. Either way, the present administration—and that includes Bill Barr and his boss—need to be held to account.
2
If a civil war in ex-Yugoslavia taught me anything, it would be that the people are capable of being incredibly stupid, the dozens millions of them simultaneously.
The question is why.
How come that the intelligent humans can be so harmful to self and everybody else?
You witnessed the tragic scenes from El Paso. A civil war is the same kind of events on industrial scale.
Who is capable of something like that? All of us! The question is why we keep doing it for centuries.
Every conflict is a civil war. The civilians get recruited and pushed it the carnages. We get betrayed by those we trust the most. That’s why our intelligence cannot help us avoid a wrong path.
Our presidents, political parties, free press and clergy betray us.
They are so slick. They simultaneously preach two diametrically opposite messages. One is that we should love our neighbors, have the team spirit, and protect community, society and country.
However, as soon as they wrap up those opening statements, those “leaders” continue with the hatred ten times harder – allegedly, we are threatened by our neighbors, they are exploiting and oppressing us, they are stealing from us, they are the racists, xenophobes, criminals….
This mantra is capable of saddling any society with the civil war.
If you vote for those politicians because of the first part while wilfully ignoring the extremely polarizing main message that they deploy to grab the power, you actually vote for a civil war…
1
I'll tell you what is not a conspiracy theory, the NYT's voluminous coverage of Epstein the last few weeks, with not one mention, affirming or dismissing his role as a Mossad agent. Lots of people talking about it on Twitter, but not a peep by the NYTs. The Times has chosen to focus on the conventional aspects of his crimes and death, but not one article on the bigger issues that might be involved if Epstein was a member of a foreign spy service. A foreign country that is supposedly our "friend and ally"
Good possibility given the connection between Barak and Epstein as well as the daughter of Robert Maxwell ( a Mossad agent) being the source of the young girls for Epstein
Could someone with $50,000,000,000 in cash recruit a few guards who make $40,000 a year?
First things first, let's see the finger-prints and DNA of the corpse, from 5 separate independent labs.
The body-double conspiracy is not so crazy. Epstein got a unbelieveable deal in Florida, sleeping in his cell at night and going to his office during the day. Thanks alot to FL AG Alex Acosta who engineered the NPA, and subsequently was given the Secretary of Labor job by Trump.
"We're making a movie, you're perfect for the Jeffrey Epstein role; all you need is a little plastic surgery to make you look exactly like him. We'll also take you to meet him, to help you in your acting (in disguise, of course, so he doesn't expect anything. Whatta you say? There's $10,000,000 in it for you, if you get the role. Whatt ya think?)" Overhead on the casting couch.
Epstein was a wealthy degenerate. There are lots of wealthy and powerful degenerates who can only lose power if they are credibly exposed.. Between our supine press and the enormous power of a well placed bribe, we will probably never know which of our elites liked young girls.
1
It’s just a simple fact that when you read the construction “It’s just a simple fact…” it is always followed by an opinion, not by a fact, much less a simple one.
3
hi Neal!
Eyes Wide Shut.
But we can still see.
Fearful, accidentalist ostriches be danged.
THe 1%ers hushed him up.
They are gonna get away with it.
The "news" is complicit.
Mockingbird lives.
2
Of course, you would know...
The challenge in thinking about a case like the rampant pedophilia and sexual predation inside the Catholic Church with its trillion dollar balance sheet -- the Church whose priests spent their lives acquiring sex slaves and serving as a procurer to the ruling class, can be summed up in two sentences: Much of the Bible is false. But often some of the things that it tries to explain are real (except the immaculate conception).
Scripture is usually false because the people who come up with them are outsiders to power -- like the apostles in Roman times who tried to impose narrative order on a world they don’t fully understand — which leads them to imagine implausible scenarios and impossible plots, to settle on ideologically convenient villains and assume the absolute worst about their motives, and to imagine an omnicompetence among the corrupt and conniving that doesn’t actually exist (or perhaps it does).
Or they are false because the people who come up with them are insiders trying to deflect blame for their own failings (indeed), by blaming a malign enemy within or an evil-genius rival for problems that their own blunders helped create -- like the Catholic Church, the Republican Party, the NRA and Donald Trump.
1
My opinion: Epstein’s suicide was not suicide in the sense we have defined “suicide” till now.
1
Remember when The New York Times help lead the investigative journalism that unraveled Watergate? That was then. Now it is happy to be on the side of The Man and blame the lowest guy on the chain: the overworked prison guard, conveniently dovetailing with an article it once published. It is not a "paranoid conspiracy" theory to think that a powerful guy with secrets on the powerful was either killed or got help in killing himself given the weird details known at this time.
1
“Believe half of what you see and none of what you hear.”
And since there was apparently no one to see Jeffery Epstein take his own life...
1
And determine the veracity of the spokesman - Bill Barr. He is hardly a trustworthy source of unmassaged truth. His outrage at the suicide of Epstein reminds me of the Kavanaugh hearings, a lot of fight and false outrage for the purpose of deflecting from the underlying weakness and personal interest of the speaker. In this instance, I suspend my trust until I hear from a trustworthy source.
1
The truth is out there somewhere, it not only takes a lot of work to find but the search might be fruitless.
Since most journalism is free, it can be worthless with no work (call the jail, report they said "no comment.") In that case, the most sensational "news" surfaces.
It's costly but worth it if NYT gets beyond "no comment," worthless if no news, worldwide front page if collusion proved.
Why is the NYT unwilling to discuss the Katie Johnson (a/k/a Jane Doe) lawsuit against Epstein and Trump, which was active during the 2016 election, then was dropped not long afterwards, because of unspecified threats? This was a credible lawsuit with a corroborating witness willing to testify that Trump raped a 13-year-old. This is not Area 51; it was a real, credible legal action, dropped under mysterious circumstances that strongly suggest that wealth and power made it go away. Yet the Times, WaPo, etc. are silent. Why?
2
I have myself though that Epstein was given the brainwashing Manchurian Candidate style of torture for him to take his own life.
Th reason is that he knew so much dirt on people in high places and it has been said he was a blackmailer.
There that's over with.
As the old joke goes, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get you.
1
NPR was doing science reports to shill for movie's like Star Wars and Godzilla before they're released. One story was about a distant artificial satellite discovered by legitimate "Scientist" sounding like a Death Star. In another report we were told we know so little about the earths crust (where Godzilla lives). Just a few months ago they wanted to give 16 year olds the right to vote and like a miracle one of them arises Joan of Arc from the EU "The Voice of Climate Change". I went to far?
Alex Jones says Pizza Parlor but is he using it as a euphemism for the mafia. AJ doesn't have the clout to take on the want Mafia. Urban legend say Pizza Parlors are protected by and connected too the Mafia. How about pimping for pedophiles?
We are constantly manipulated. Ever wonder why Aliens don't wear clothes? All that technology to travel the stars and can't even come up with underwear? They not only count on our stupidity they also know since we want to believe we'll believe anything. Look at climate change, Republican racism and any Spielburg movie. And UFO's.
It is funny that after being bombarded fpr the last 3 years with Trump conspiracies the maintream media is saying don't be fooled, you're to smart to fall for it. I'm sure Dershowitz would agree.
They seized his stuff yesterday not when he was arrested. Nothing to see here. Just ask Dershowitz if you can find him.
2
This president has a way of projecting his own immoral and illegal actions on others. Perhaps his accusations against the Clinton family is a reflection of his own involvement with Epstein...
Mr. Douthat uses big words and writes opinion pieces for the New York Times. He is also a theist. His philosophical underpinnings are hence fully based on a mythology. For that reason, he lacks authority when it comes to examining the truth. respectfully.
1
Do you think the porn and paraphernalia from Jeffrey Epstein’s estate will ever be entered as evidence in a court case?
I don’t.
In that sense, there is in fact a conspiracy.
Rules of justice are arcane and a conspiracy against justice.
Like the rule that a sitting President can’t be indicted for crimes while in office.
A bunch of nonsense.
1
Most Americans are hard wired to believe the most extraordinary things on the bases of bad or very poor evidence. This majority Judaeo-Christian population believes in one version or another of an ancient god based on poor evidence.
Why then is it such a stretch to understand that most Americans will be susceptible to conspiratorial claims?
Proof of UFO's have more data points toward truth than what some 70% collectively believe as a people:
Sending telepathic messages to a Jewish ghost letting him know that you will accept him as your master and ask him to remove a magical curse that was passed down to you because an old woman that was made from the rib of her partner ate a piece if magical fruit form a magical tree because a talking snake told her to.
2
This smells like it’s right out of Putin’s playbook. But we can no longer trust our law enforcement with the justice department so rigged. Watch Barr stop any evidence which leads to trump, or the trump family. The country is almost lost at this point. The stupid Dems have an opportunity to start aiming their guns at those responsible for the judicial fiasco in which we find ourselves, but no, they’ll shoot at each other in their own little power struggle. If they were really true Americans they have their own private caucus and select a candidate. Solidified they could win both the senate and the White House. At this rate, they’re flushing their chances right down the toilet. Not only their chances, but the chance of this country surviving.
1
A paedophile conspiracy? A paedophile is an adult, usually male who is attracted sexually to preadolescents, typically twelve or younger.
It's unlikely, albeit not impossible, that Epstein belonged to a rich, powerful cabal of such persons who then panicked and paid a guard or an inmate inside a US federal prison to murder Epstein.
But that there exists a cabal of rich men, of which Epstein was a member, who prey on underage girls, say seventeen, sixteen, or fifteen – depending on the precise laws of the jurisdiction that define the age of majority? That's plausible.
Then, even if they didn't pay someone to kill Epstein, it's conceivable that somehow one or more of them was able to bring enough pressure on Epstein to kill himself.
1
I don't believe it's a "conspiracy theory" to legitimately question the allegation that a six-foot tall man hung himself off a bunk bed with a prison bed sheet specifically designed to prevent such hangings by being so thin as to shred when asked to bear any weight.
Better examples of so-called "conspiracy theories" that were 100% true include the MK-Ultra mind-control experiments, the Operation Mockingbird collaboration between the CIA and the press, and the continued prosecution of the Vietnam War long after it was known to be unwinnable as proven by the Pentagon Papers.
Whenever there's government involved it's always tempting to suspect malice when profound incompetence renders an unusual result, but pinning Epstein's death on a bulleted list of "oopses" by one of the country's premier prisons is a bridge too far.
2
Perhaps some like Douthat's style, but to me it always seem meandering and his points to lack a thesis to hold them all together. Thanks, NYT commenters, for writing with greater clarity! Y'all made me feel like I had a take-away from this story, not just a head-scratch.
1
Good points but not a well crafted article...why not review the specifics of his case which are unique, including documented court record and verifiable legal evidence.
1
Conspiracy theories are usually false because they are not based on any valid mode of inference. If you make a random statement about anything, it is likely to be false. Conspiracy theories depend on motivated reasoning, cherry-picking evidence, and unsupported conjecture. These methods do not help one distinguish between true and false statements, so we are left with the probably-false random statement we started with.
If a conspiracy theory contains any truth, it is by coincidence. Yes, conspiracies exist. But listening to conspiracy theorists will not help one discover true conspiracies.
2
@Robert Stadler-"Conspiracy theories depend on motivated reasoning, cherry-picking evidence, and unsupported conjecture." A lot like religion. Interesting.
Ross Douthat,
You don't seem to understand the difference between those peddling "conspiracy theories" and those people calling for real investigations into things that clearly demand transparent and comprehensive investigations but people in power are blocking them or claiming facts that are simply untrue to justify their inaction.
Very few Democrats had a "conspiracy theory" of why the Trump Administration would obstruct justice and why Trump's very highest level campaign staff would invite Russians offering dirt on Hillary Clinton into Trump Tower for a meeting. They just knew that it smelled and the fact that Donald Trump directed his son to lie publicly about the reason for that meeting demands a full investigation where both Trump and his son are put under oath.
You will notice that the Democrats are not trying to cover up for Epstein nor are they trying to block any full and transparent investigation into what happened in the prison. The fact the public does not yet have the names of all the guards -- both the regular ones and the "freelance" ones who supposedly were given the power to guard the most prominent inmate in the prison -- is definitely something that journalist should be demanding and if those names are hidden by the Trump Administration, then certainly it is right for questions to be asked.
And I have no "theory" about why the Trump administration would cover up their ties with Russia and this death under their watch. But it looks bad.
5
It seems like Russ' argument is that if something has a possible alternative explanation, we can't say we know anything. He says that we shouldn't dismiss conspiracy theories because they might have a bit of truth to them. He's falling into the "we'll never know for sure" trap because he, like many Americans, demand rock-solid, incontrovertible, smoking-gun evidence. We act like we're jurors, weighing the evidence and deciding not to pass judgment unless they're at least 95% certain. We make decisions based on far less. Would it be wrong to say, "This conspiracy talk is nonsense," if I was 80% sure? No, of course not. We argue for things because we believe they are true, and those of us with maturity allow their views to be affected by new evidence.
But until there is evidence of a conspiracy, it is right to dismiss it out of hand. Most conspiracies aren't based on things that can be proven true or false. All that exists now in terms of "evidence" is speculation about motive because of a convenient narrative. But this isn't a spy movie, and just because someone benefits doesn't mean they had a hand in it.
It's not unusual for a prisoner at risk of suicide to be left alone, especially when they've been dehumanized, which is easy to do with prisoners even when they don't commit this kind of crime. This stuff happens all the time, and now because it happened to someone powerful, people think there must be someone even more powerful behind it.
1
The Mercers, Koch brothers, Adelson, Bannon, et al with their behind the scenes machinations are well documented and represent political conspiracy, potentially illegal and/or treasonous. The Federalist Society and its ilk can claim to be "think tanks" but their efforts could also be defined as ruthless destruction of democratic governance. Overpricing drugs that endanger lives via economic exclusion meets my standard of a conspiracy due to lies about needing a return on investment. So we are conditioned to see such conspiracy when it is not addresses by legal means and corrected.
Very good summation of conspiracy theorizing and its root, but in the case of Jeffrey Epstein, I think you neglected to factor in some other components, such as malign neglect and the complete disavowal of responsibility exhibited by the Trump administration and in particular, Bill Barr, who should have recused himself from the beginning and whose intrusion now appears decidedly unprofessional according to those who work in legal circles.
The bottom line is that the DOJ and the entire Federal penal system are within Barr's jurisdiction and it appears that like so many departments under Trump's jurisdiction, they have been battered by a president who wants as much control and power as possible with absolutely no idea what he is doing and who fears anyone with expertise who might be of service.
In fact, I think it would be fair to describe Trump's entire management style as completely rooted in multiple conspiracy theories and paranoid musings, leading to extreme disarray of which the Epstein case is but one example. I have the distinct feeling that once this president and his cabinet are gone, however it happens, the citizenry will be in store for a rude awakening to a government routed by termites with a damaged shell in its place. Only then can the repairs begin and it can't happen soon enough.
5
@pixilated
It is clear that Barr's intent is to make sure no one finds out the truth.
The first paragraph of the article made me think "Oh yea that's why Trump liked him so much! He's doing the same job his grandpa did. "
Trump never dumped him as a friend knowing full well what he was until Epstein had the bad taste to bid against him for a house. A house trump then sold to a Russian oligarch* for 95M or so about 50% profit if I remember the article correctly.
*Generally a former KGB agent
1
@pixilated
Oh yea that termite infestation, the republicans have been doing it intentionally since the reagan admin.
1
In Epstein's case the conspiracy was real....Powerful people used teen girls and enjoyed Epstein's system of procurement. Epstein may have had the ability to blackmail them even if he didn't avail himself of the possibiliy. They know he did and arranged to make his life easier in Florida, and it certainly looks like in New York in prison as well. It is not at all farfetched to assume they acted to remove the suicide watch or remove the roomate....
Many people didn't want him talking....The girls know however!
6
All shame on Dow Jones for that zipper headline shown in the photograph. Epstein a "bad boy"? That's Wall Street winking and tittering at one of their own who preys on and traffics in children.
4
Here’s my conspiracy theory: Epstein faked his death and is living on a Caribbean island.
1
Incoherent column. But what keeps distracting me is the text scrolling through the photo of the Fox News building announcing Epstein’s death: “bad boy financier”? Huh?? It doesn’t take a conspiracy theory to explain Epstein’s sexual predation, or a Russian hidden hand to explain Trump: our society is grotesquely misogynistic, juvenile and avaricious and distributes its rewards accordingly (see POTUS). Epstein’s “suicide,” on the other hand...
1
You missed your opportunity:
Last week, you could have bet me $1,000 that Ross Douthat could write a column that I'd agree with 100%. I would have thought you were a sucker.
Yet here we are..... must be a conspiracy of some sort.
2
Has this guy even read the Mueller report? Did he even bother to read Mueller's conclusion about Russian election interference? Just because Mueller didn't conclude that Trump conspired with the Russians, doesn't mean he cast the Russian efforts as either a conspiracy or weak. He stated that it was a serious problem that needed a serious response.
3
The lingering question remains how to hold and sustain trust in institutions and in our centers of legitimate power. Believing in them in most cases...until facts come out otherwise. The alternative is no trust, investigating investigators, and the gradual unravelling of an important element of the social glue.
2
The overly broad and vague term "conspiracy theory", which originated with the JFK assassination, is useless as an analytical tool and needs to be discarded. It obscures and confuses as much as it explains.
It is a textbook example of what Orwell criticized so well in his essay on language and politics, namely, a vague and euphemistic linguistic expression meant to obfuscate an issue and to avoid expressing it in precise and direct terms.
"Conspiracy theory" is used as a vague, catchall category in which to lump and dismiss any explanation with which the writer happens to disagree.
It is a way of avoiding having to deal with a particular view on its own merits. You can dismiss an entire argument simply by labeling it as a "conspiracy theory".
For example, in the Epstein case, how can asking the simple and logical question "how could this have happened?" and being sceptical of the official explanation, be construed in any way as engaging in a "conspiracy theory"?
If you want to analyze particular view or theory and label it as either sound or crazy, feel free to do so, but please don't lump everything together as a "conspiracy theory". It does not advance our understanding of the issues.
2
It's not nice to laugh at people who sincerely believe in something, no matter how stupid and dangerous. For thousands of years people have been punished for not believing in nonsense, say, immaculate conception of Jesus, Judeo-Christian creation myths, God.
People have always tried to explain the seemingly inexplicable with tall tales to allay their fears. Plus, it's too hard to think for themselves or go against the mob, especially when their president tells them not to believe what they see or hear, and retweets total nonsense for them to swallow.
The radical right is all too ripe for all kinds of conspiracy tripe: vaccinations cause plague, socialism is Stalinism, Obama wasn't American.
So, why not have the Clintons open a pizza parlor in a federal prison where they smuggle Epstein out through the basement on a dark and stormy night, bats flying, owls hooting, Fox bleating. Probably as good reality teevee as any.
It seems so obvious: Epstein always got what he wanted. When faced with life in prison, he wanted to kill himself and the prison officials were only too happy to accommodate him.
Now, maybe he really bought them all off, escaped in the ambulance, and is now putting his feet up in a tropical paradise. With Hitler.
4
I was with Mr. Douthat all the way until he got to the catholic church, which is an organized pedophilia ring.
6
The NYTimes, in its fastidious desire not to publish unfounded salacious rumors, failed the country by not covering the suit brought by a woman in 2016 alleging that Donald Trump had raped her then-13 year old self in Epstein’s NYC apartment.
The allegations may or may not be true. The sworn affidavit and the plaintiff’s profile are in line with those of other women who have made charges against Epstein.
Trump is a sexual predator, damned by his own words.
The rape suit was withdrawn days before the 2016 election; the plaintiff’s lawyer says this was because her client and client’s family were threatened.
The NY Times did not report these facts and allegations because the plaintiff chose to remain anonymous.
Many people at that point had never heard of Jeffrey Epstein. Others did not want to hear about the rape charges against Trump because, if they had not been reported by the NYTimes, how could they be anything but trashy gossip?
This failure in reporting helped elect Donald Trump.
7
The funny thing about conspiracy theories is that they can be true. The Democrats are complaining about Russian interference today...and the Republicans were complaining about the same thing in the 50s. It turns out both of them were right - the USSR was actively attempting to undermine the USA back in the day, and Russia probably was trying to affect the US election.
Go figure.
5
Regarding Organized Medicine ( which could be considered an oxymoron). One should take a look at the pharmaceutical industrial complex, by reading, " Overdosed America", by John Abramson MD. There you'll see how the drug companies corrupt science, mislead doctors, and potentially threaten health. The "conspiracy' here appears to be, to sell drugs which may be of questionable benefit for profit and the benefit of the stockholders.
2
Yes. Thank you for countering your colleagues' previous articles. The articles from the ones who "have their head on their shoulders" more than the rest of us. In this case, they are part of the problem.
3
So finally a right wing opinion maker is forced to express the obvious: that there are conspiracies out there involving powerful people in government and that these conspiracies have always existed. Could it be because the Epstein case might point toward the Clintons and the Democratic Party? Of course it is. The problem with all government related conspiracies is that they are unavoidably political. The information being covered up will hurt just one party and so one half of the political spectrum is involved in the coverup.
The only way to actually make sense out of these sensitive political cases is to have independent investigators and commissions assigned to them. But it is rare even then to find a way to the truth.
The one conspiracy that Mr. Douthat conspicuously avoided was the assassination of JFK. That sad episode has become the most investigated murder in history and a half century of investigators has turned up evidence that leads directly back to government institutions and the conservative centers of power in 1963. Conservative power groups in the Republican party have still never admitted their connection to this horrible event and the rise of conservative power after it. If Ross wants to understand what drives conspiracy blindness all he has to do is look in the mirror.
2
I agree with this - not an unusual occurrence with respect to Mr. Douthat's thoughtful essays.
Another very fine writer, James Fallows, has pointed out that when he was in the Carter Administration, most 'conspiracies' they were accused of were actually bungling!
Conspiracy theories are almost never true.
Until they are...........and that is rare, indeed - but not unheard of.
2
Just a reminder that Russian interference in Western democracies isn't a "conspiracy theory," As Douthat is implying. (He's careful to never call it a conspiracy theory, but the context is clear.) Russian interference is quite real, verified publicly by our own (and other nations') intelligence agencies. It's not a conspiracy theory; it's a demonstrably real conspiracy. Time to stop feeding the actual conspiracy theory trolls by conflating and manufacturing false equivalencies.
11
Just like clichés, the reason conspiracy theories exist and hang around is that there is a lot of truth to them. Just because not all aspects are true doesn't mean the theory isn't.
Our government lies to us all the time so having the president's personal attorney assure us about the investigation is hardly reassuring. Especially with his boss having so much at stake. Priority one will be clearing him, two not clearing Clinton and a distant third, the truth as long as it doesn't affect rich white Republicans and presidential fund raising.
7
Why, when giving the example of Russian interference, is one group referred to as “elite” and the other as “conservative”? The author was making valid points, but after the snide description of liberals, I didn’t have the stomach to finish the opinion piece.
Why not conservative and liberal?
Cambridge Dictionary defines elite as “the richest, most powerful, best-educated, or best-trained group in a society” which doesn’t completely describe either side.
Why continue to fan the flames with divisive language?
10
"But also recognize that in the case of Jeffrey Epstein and his circle, the conspiracy was real."
Certainly it was real and and was the basis for much of Mr. Epstein's success in recruiting wealthy and prominent people to his cause, but how much does it matter in the greater scheme of things when confronted by the irrefutable fact that this country is currently being governed by an outright fantasist and enabler of bigots, cranks and conspiracy-minded people.
Say what you will about Jeffrey Epstein, he never had charge of a nuclear football.
4
What's the difference between believing in a "conspiracy theory" and believing in an "invisible man" who lives in the sky and has "invisible enemies" who are the source of virtually all the good and evil in the world...from wars and tsunamis to child births and Hail Mary pass touchdowns?
Both are "faith based".
I guess our species has some sort of hard-wired attraction assigning causality of the initially unexplainable to some hidden force that can only be believed in.
And BTW...is there a "patron saint" for conspiracy theories?
7
@Woodson Dart, divine intervention and conspiracy theories, they both walk and talk like ducks. Nothing deeper than that, right?
Sound, helpful example driven college level 101 course.
The old cliche's come to mind. Think! Is it reasonable and rationale. Look before you leap. To thine on self be true!
1
The likelihood of a conspiracy of some sort seems mandated by Occam's Razor.
6
As the saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
And conspiracy theories sometimes latch upon a good chunk of truth at about the same frequency.
What society needs are some lessons on determining how much faith to put on stories appearing on the web; it will be a sliding scale from the "most likely believable", to the "maybe, I'll have to look further", to greed/delusion.
Are the stories coming from real news services: that is organizations that actually exist, that have stood the test of time, that have real reputations, and not simply something that shows up one day on the internet?
Do the stories have some corroboration - particularly corroboration that other news services have independently noted as well.
Use some common sense. Yes, once in a while, the unbelieveable proves to be true - (look at Clinton/Lewinsky).
But it doesn't happen every day. Is is really likely that Hillary Clinton operated a sex ring out of a pizza parlor.
Just because you accept some facts, doesn't mean you have to accept all the theories around them. People have reliably seen lights in the sky: you can accept that as accurate. You don't have to believe that means Melania comes from the Alpha Quadrant.
2
"Just because I'm paranoid, it doesn't mean they are not coming after me." A common saying.
Thank you for telling us the obvious. I guess some people really need to hear it.
2
Mr. Epstein was at heart a con man who convinced people of his amazing intellect, which he then traded for convincing people of the great wealth enabled by his great intellect -- just like Donald Trump. In point of fact, he didn't even have a college degree. Why were so many people "conned" by Mr. Epstein and why are so many "conned" by Trump?
7
Great summary, great stance, thank you. Word.
2
Awesome piece - Thank you, Ross Douthat, for laying out in plain language the nuance of what journalism is supposed to be - a seeking of truth where ever it leads. And thank you, New York Times, for printing it and for being a bastion of true journalism in this age of Fox and Trump.
2
William Barr is in charge. There is zero chance that the cover-up operation did not begin immediately. Documents have certainly been destroyed and hard drives wiped. Friends will be protected. Enemies exposed.
11
The main premise of this distraction piece is that, "Most conspiracy theories are false." How is it decided whether something is true or false? To be true, any theory, conspiracy or otherwise, has to be supported by the facts and the facts alone. However, one can easily dismiss any theory by denying, misreporting, or distorting the facts. The censors of the MSM act as the gatekeepers for the elite. To dismiss speculation about an event as paranoia is merely the placing of a value judgment on something that for the MSM maven must appear to be beyond the comprehension of the masses. The MSM maven's very job and career literally hinges on how well he or she performs for their corporate bosses. Therefore, when they dismiss the opinion of the "outsiders to power," it is simply a crude attempt to create a perceived need for an MSM to shape mass opinion in the style of the late Edward Bernays ("the father of spin") who wrote the book, "Propaganda." The MSM is dying because the "outsiders to power" have lost trust in the elite's MSM servants. These MSM servants act like modern-day Alcuins of York. Their job is to maintain the control and power of the elite by enforcing the dictum, "'And do not listen to those who keep saying 'the voice of the people is the voice of god' because the tumult of the crowd is always close to madness.'" Nine hundred years later the Whig party adopted "Vox Populi, Vox Dei" as the title of a tract and democracy was feeling the labor pains of its birth.
2
Let's not forget the big "conspiracy" of climate change. look into it and you might find that glaciers really are melting. There just might be truth to it after all.
9
For Epstein there are two mysteries. One is how did he acquire his extraordinary wealth and the other, how did he die?
Others have mentioned blackmail as the source of income and that idea has merit. But any business, including the criminal, requires start-up capital, and I suggest he may have been financed by a foreign government's intelligence apparatus. Russia is known to use Kompromat, by acquiring compromising photos of influential people, and bankrolling a greedy American pedophile may have presented an irresistible opportunity.
As for the cause of his death, although dozens may have dreamed of killing him I still think suicide enabled by his spectacularly incompetent jailers was most likely.
3
And a stopped clock is right every twelve hours. But that does not mean you should take it seriously the rest of the day.
2
The real conspiracy is conservative Republicans robbing of the country of it's resources to funnel into the military industrial pork complex and massive tax cuts on some dumb idea that amounts to trickle down economics on steroids. William Barr should be fired. The "buck" (or 50 cents that left after tax cuts) stops there. He's the decider. The one in charge. Supposedly the top federal correctional facility that so seriously underfunded and under staffed that inmates demand to be returned to Rikers Island. Hey let's build a few more aircraft carriers for sailors to endlessly paint and swab the decks.
2
By all accounts, Epstein trafficked underaged girls to rich and powerful men. Make no mistake. All of them were raping children. One hypothesis is that this group included Trump.
Please recall that both Trump and Dershowitz had been accused of participating even before Epstein's little black book was released. Please recall also that Epstein's butler circled the names of participants and victims. Dershowitz was circled.
We need to give those women justice, whose lives were changed forever. Legal justice and financial justice. We need to go after those other men.
It is likely that Epstein blackmailed those men, and that such blackmail was a principal source of Epstein's standard of living.
The first thing we should do is demand the recusal of the attorney general. His own father was an associate of Epstein, hired Epstein to teach at his school, and wrote pseudonymous pornography.
Ross writes:
"... blaming populism on Russian hackers, moneymen and bots."
Sorry, Ross. Trump is a demagogue not a populist. Populists make and keep promises. Demagogues play to the people's ignorance and prejudice. Yes, some of Trump's base believed he was a populist. But not the part of his base which was mainly motivated by racial resentment, which, as it happens, was most of it. That part of Trump's base is a racist mob. And, yes, some irresponsible columnists continue to use the word to describe Trump.
5
Excellent analysis. Current "conspiracies", of which they are many, are mostly made up of an alignment of interests to overcome system safeguards for the gain of a few insiders.
Think 'Tony Soprano', not 'Dr. Strangelove'.
The Republican Party, the NRA and the Kochtopus operate this way. Their operations are often against the public interest but not necessarily "against the law". And, should a law get in the way, they simply change the law.
2
Who better for Trump to cast blame on and dispersions than the Clintons? Of any of those associated with Epstein, the current occupant of the oval office probably had Epstein snuffed out as Epstein could have been persuaded to reveal the criminal acts of Trump thus jeopardizing Trump’s election possibilities in 2020? Eh?
3
The problem with Epstein is that there were obvious and true actions by people in power to both give him the lightest conviction possible in Florida as well as his joke “incarceration” there.
Further, the “I never met the man” “never spent time with him” statements by people in power defy both the records of plane flights as well as pictures accepted as valid.
When people are already peddling lies that the press is passing along often without judgment as to their veracity, how can a common person judge the truth.
When lies aren’t challenged by the press, and truth remains in background interviews and quashed stories, why should people be anything but paranoid.
There is a concerted effort to not challenge lies, to let the truth pass in the night. Generally in deference to the rich and powerful that has been shown by this very paper.
People create conspiracies because the truth is denied them, by the press as much as the powerful. They are Ignorant and working with scraps because that is what us preferred.
2
As far as Trump's circulating conspiracy theories, what concerns me is that he is a president not well connected to reality, not capable of discerning fact from fiction, and uninterested in facts, evidence, and truth. Why are people not more concerned that a president promotes crazy theories without any concern for the impact of his carelessness? He is a low information president to begin with. Now we see that a notable part of his knowledge of the world is lies, fantasy, and paranoia. He is profoundly and comprehensively careless and only loosely connected to the common reality. This is a major reason he is a danger to the country and the world.
2
This piece has many truths. The disturbing truths seem like fantasy until the pictures and witnesses line up. In the cases of the church and Russia even that is no enough for some. There are people who still go to church and worship with guidance from pedophiles and those who hide them after all.
But, this Epstein deal is certainly a story with so many conspiratorial twists tied into it. Trump's sexual predator behavior, Mar A Lago, the teen beauty pageants (where many teens complained about Trump walking into dressing room) is just too much to ignore. While Trump tries to make up another narrative about the Clintons he seems to forget that he is the focus now, not the Clintons. His behavior is what is being judged to decide whether he will remain president or fight to stay out of jail as a private citizen. And if people believe their will not be more evidence coming out as the accomplices are charged with serious jail time, they are kidding themselves. The only question will be if Barr is really just Trump's personal lawyer and will destroy the evidence.
2
"Conspiracy theories are usually false because the people who come up with them are outsiders to power, trying to impose narrative order on a world they don’t fully understand — which leads them to imagine implausible scenarios and impossible plots, to settle on ideologically convenient villains and assume the absolute worst about their motives, and to imagine an omnicompetence among the corrupt and conniving that doesn’t actually exist."
Oh. Like religion?
3
Sometimes things are exactly what they appear to be.
5
Thanks for this, Mr. Douthat. My take: reflexive skepticism whenever Hillary is blamed for the Next Horrible Thing shouldn't blind us to the fact that Horrible Things have normal, human enablers.
1
How about this one: Trump's trade war is primarily intended to manipulate the stock market, by his vacillations on what he is going to do, with insider trading pumping all the natural gains into the portfolios of the 1%, followed by intentional spooking the market (December 2018) to reset the base at the expense of those not served by hedge funds. Rinse, repeat (August 2019)
1
At least we're all still in agreement that human trafficking and child sexual abuse are wrong.
These days, I'll take whatever agreement I can get. I'm half surprised there isn't some right-wing talking point about bringing a "common sense" viewpoint on sexual slavery.
2
The whole Epstein story is disgusting. But getting to the "truth" will probably be impossible. Who are the reliable witnesses? Not the many people who have "partied" with Epstein over the years; not the former employees, either lining up for book deals and TV appearances or hunkering down and lawyering up; and not the scores of young women who were recruited and paid to provide sex services and are now recast as blameless victims. Some may tell the truth or part of the truth, others may exaggerate to serve their own interests and still others will deny or refuse to talk at all.
Children under 18 cannot give consent. They are blameless victims.
Mr. Douthat when I was young and had hair that I could grow out there was a hugely popular conspiracy theory going around that if you played the latest Beatles Album backwards and listened very carfully you would hear the Fab Four giving instructions in how to be picked up and taken to a tropical island somewhere where you could live in an idylliac hippy paradise with the Beatles, for the rest of your life. Needless it say that it turned out this rumor was simply a trope dreamed-up by the Beatles themselves as a lark, or perhaps a powerful marketing tool aimed at their guillible and probably too stoned fans.
It seems in looking back, we young people spent way to much of our lives vascillating between this more pleasant theory involving the Beatles and,in our more paranoid moments, the Kennedy Assassination conspiracy theory and the theory that hippies, Vietnam War protestors and Liberals were being rounded-up by the Nixon Administration and sent to off-shore concentration camps.
Perhaps Ross, just like in the turbulent and uncertain 60's we find ourselves in these uncertain times circa 2019 spending way too much time on developing and perseverating on conspiracy theories and not enough time going out and simply living our lives and trying to make things better day by day, as individuals. Just a suggestion.
I'll fill in the blanks from Douthat's description of why conspiracy theories are usually false:
"Conspiracy theories are usually false because the people (Democrats/Mainstream Media) who come up with them are outsiders to power, trying to impose narrative order on a world they don’t fully understand — which leads them to imagine implausible scenarios (Russiagate) and impossible plots (Russiagate), to settle on ideologically convenient villains (White Supremacists, Racists, Fascists) and assume the absolute worst about their motives, and to imagine an omnicompetence among the corrupt and conniving that doesn’t actually exist."
@John
Our country was built because of an institution that was justified with white supremacy, and the theft of the indigenous peoples' lands in America was also justified with white supremacy. American history is littered with popular white supremacist movements, and we still haven't fully dealt with it. The FBI has stated unequivocally that most terrorist attacks in America are performed by white supremacists.
That's obviously not a conspiracy. That's just a fact. But if you insist to keep your head in the sand, then that's on you.
@John
Our country was built because of an institution that was justified with white supremacy, and the theft of the indigenous peoples' lands in America was also justified with white supremacy. American history is littered with popular white supremacist movements, and we still haven't fully dealt with it. The FBI has stated unequivocally that most terrorist attacks in America are performed by white supremacists.
That's obviously not a conspiracy. That's just a fact. But if you insist to keep your head in the sand, then that's on you.
The Russians literally did infiltrate our voting systems in 2016, and literally did wage a propaganda campaign against us. If you don't know that, then that's on you. The FBI has been very clear about it.
Fascism is a political movement normally centered around an individual with a cult of personality, and which is ideologically fluid (ie: not based on hard-and-fast ethical principals), but rather extremely opportunistic. It is also always highly nationalistic. If you don't think that's Trump, then that's on you.
I think that Trevor Noah nailed this one. This facility has been understaffed and abysmally run for a long time. The conspiracy is that at long last Jeffrey Epstein was being treated like everybody else. In other words allowed to not be monitored and to have the same lousy care as the average criminal. Watch it on You Tube
Come on Barr; it's time to clean up the Federal jails.
1
I'm neither a conspiracy theorist ( it's just too hard to keep large secrets), nor a believer in the press.
When Epstein was arrested, there was no doubt in my mind that he would die before he stood trial.
2
Considering that a woman named Katie Johnson accused both Epstein and Trump just 3 years ago and Epstein, from where I stand, most likely where guilty of those accusations, so do people think there are no truth to the Trump accusations? Or just conspiracies?
Ross, there is no such thing as a “suspicious suicide”. It’s either a suicide or it’s a murder or it’s an accident.
1
Mr. Douthat offers three rationales for why conspiracy theories tend to be false. The last two are
2. "because the people who come up with them are insiders trying to deflect blame for their own failings, by blaming a malign enemy within or an evil-genius rival for problems that their own blunders helped create," or,
3. "because the people pushing them are cynical manipulators and attention-seekers trying to build a following who don’t care a whit about the truth."
President Trump's re-tweet of a suggestion that Bill Clinton assassinated Jeffrey Epstein, of the United States, represents theories 2 and 3 in spades. It is a classic deflection of the spotlight than could shine even more brightly on him. To paraphrase Mr Douthat, President Trump might easily be the nation's primary exemplar of someone who is a cynical, attention-seeking manipulator who tries to build a following who don’t care a whit about the truth."
Mr. Trump's behavior is perverse and long-standing, out there for anybody to see with the click of a mouse. There's no conspiracy theory about such an assessment of our sitting president.
2
It is obvious that conspiracies are real. They happen all the time! We know that the government of the United States has been involved in many conspiracies- we find out well after the fact in most cases (just think "yellow cake- Saddam" or Iran-Contra or Bay of Tonkin). And tons of corporate conspiracy as well. Bottom line- people don't trust institutions any more. Why should they?! You can't blame folks for not trusting institutions that are often not trustworthy. The hard task is how to make institutions more worthy of our trust.
1
Condescension toward conspiracy theories is a favorite pastime of those who believe they are endowed with special reasoning skills and who bask in their own sense (often false) of superiority over those who do not belong (you know, the “deplorables"). Intentionally or not, this op-ed reinforces this distinction.
What members of the self-appointed intellectual elite do not realize is how fallible they are to their own hubris. Those who are supposed (by the op-ed) to make choices between what is true and what is not, do not understand that, like the elites, the “deplorables” also live their lives, raise families, and make choices, both good and bad. They may lack the refinement, pretentiousness, and mannerisms of the elite, but they often do a better job at living their lives.
One does not have to have superior reasoning skills or high IQ to see reality behind conspiracy theories. What conspiracy theories--such as those around Epstein's case or the Clinton body count--reveal beyond any doubt is that people in the position of domination in this country have few constraints on their behavior. Their access to institutions of power makes them impervious to ordinary justice. Impugning them undermines the trust toward the very institutions that are supposed to maintain peace and order. It is a vicious circle: the very means of serving justice have to be used against justice. This is the real problem that is often overlooked by those who cling to faith in their superiority.
This was a good and helpful opinion piece. Yet, I find it frustrating to hear all of the talking heads raising rhetorical questions and not discussing how such a convenient death might have occurred. Instead of asking why, ask how. Scientific reasoning begins with a set of facts, in this case guards not performing their duty, the subject taken off of suicide watch, etc. and making reasonable assumptions based on those facts. It could all be a colossal and implausible set of circumstances with no connection to a conspiracy or it very well could be a conspiracy. If the latter, under what scenarios how could such a deed be carried out and who would have to be involved? Obviously, cooperation within the penal system is paramount and we have seen cases of this before. For example, Whitey Bulger was most certainly sent to his death by his transfer to federal prison known to be a graveyard for his kind. Why would a prison official charged with such a decision not be aware of the dangers to someone who still had beans to spell. We also know that the FBI was implicated in coverups in Boston during Whitey's long rein. So a scenario involving one or more powerful criminal justice officials is not farfetched. It takes some crack reporters to look at such a possibility and track down the chain of command in the Epstein fiasco and toexamine their backgrounds. Start thinking "how" guys!
Not a bad article if the insults to President Trump were omitted. This adolescent behavior/writing by the NYTYs is all to common. The other aspect of the article is that the left consider their conspiracy theories to be well thought out possibilities while any conspiracy theory from the right is discarded as political rubbish. That's very evident.
Sometimes your eyes don't lie. A powerful man with money and access escapes justice, only to be caught again. While in Federal custody he is allowed to take his own life.
How convenient for the people who he could drop a dime on.
A chance occurrence? Possible, but a low probability. Still, we live in a world where low probability events happen all of the time.
No doubt that this current administration is the most corrupt one in American history, and perhaps the most incompetent one, as well. That's the bigger story. Epstein is a sideshow.
There's a pretty good way to test the validity of a conspiracy-theory: demand hard evidence from those who propose it. Otherwise you may end up believing me when I tell you that on the day before Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide he was visited by an associate of Don Trumpolino who reminisced with him about Roman history, pointed out how disgraced patricians ended their lives back in the day and assured him that if he did the right thing his family would be well taken care of.
4
Golly, that Ross is a genius. He figured out that to be effective all conspiracy theories (like all jokes) must have an element of truth to be (funny with jokes) or believed. Golly so there are kernels of wisdom even from Marianne Williamson? Ross, sorry, but, the acceptance that something weird is happening in Area 51 may be healthy skepticism about our government; alien landings and abductions so tarnish the entire subject we are compelled to dismiss everything. People have enough difficulty with the belief in these wacko theories, suggesting they delve deeper to discover the real factoid of truth that precipitated the nonsense is too big a hurdle. Trash them all as bunk.
It's some kind of success story that there is no "truth" anymore, that we are all free to judge the veracity of information from formerly reliable sources. Scientists are lying about their evidence so we're free to disregard it- think about the "Anti-vaccine" narrative or the "climate change hoax". The intelligence services are lying about Russian, Korean, Iranian, involvement in conflicts both within and without.
What happens to an advanced society when all the goal posts are continually moved by special interests? We're on our way to finding out and I suspect we will not sleep more easily.
2
1. Understaffing at the prison had no impact on Epstein's death
2. Epstein did not kill himself
3. Too many powerful people knew what he knew and were in a position to take care of things
4. The first "suicide" attempt was a smoke screen -- more than likely orchestrated by giving him drugs, and making it look as if he'd try to kill himself -- note that we never ever found out the details of that first time -- method, materials, etc. "he was found in the fetal position on the floor of the cell. Right.
5. After being taken off "fake" suicide watch, the opportune moment arose (after the Florida revelation w/ 2000 pages of data) and the assassins were sent in.
This entire "investigation" is a sham.
2
This is an absolutely "best ever" article by Ross, while still not able to answer how the "conspiracy theorist par excellence" fooled those 60 million who voted for him and still does fool his 40 million followers.
I'll go with Michael Bloomberg's all encompassing simple statement: I know a "con" when I see one.
Would anyone ever have thought such a person could become president?
Remember how we used to say "Anyone born in the U.S.A. could become president." Well that "conspiracy" became a fact.
What, no JFK? I was hoping to have you explain and dismiss it in a paragraph. Remember the Maine!
1
"The current *elite* anxiety about Russia’s hand in the West’s populist disturbances, which reached a particularly *hysterical* pitch with the pre-Mueller report collusion coverage, is a classic example of how conspiracy theories find a purchase in the supposedly sensible center — in this case, because their narrative conveniently explains a cascade of elite failures by blaming populism on Russian hackers, moneymen and bots."
Ross, this paragraph reveals you yourself to be the one tapping in to the fringe fantasies, not your intended targets. Obviously some people went overboard hypothesizing where the Mueller Report would end up, but overall the wild flights of fantasy were overwhelmingly coming from the right rather than the left/center. The vast majority of coverage was on specific incidents of bad behavior by Trump, 99% of which where proven completely correct by Mueller. On the other side you had people hypothesizing that the deeply conservative FBI was involved in a coup, that everyone who didn't swear loyalty to Trump, be they D or R, was trying to usurp him, and that everything that appeared in the media was made up (it was not).
You should know better than to use the ~~1% of overall inaccuracy on this issue that came from the left as your example here.
1
That it took you so much time to get to the point — that Epstein’s death was simple incompetence — and that you spent so much time validating various parts of different conspiracy theories is downright irresponsible. We have a political climate where our president retweets any lie just to sow doubt and divide us. Responsible journalists should spend their ink pointing this out again and again. They should not give Qanon any credence. People are struggling for truth; pieces like this just make it harder to find it.
Conspiracies and cabals exist. Reporters must be given more room to investigate. The John Edwards scandal began with unconfirmed allusions in The National Enquirer. I still want to know why I was denied a trial of Ben Laden? If they could take him dead, they certainly could have taken him alive, that is, if the story we are told is really true. Like Epstein, Ben Laden had a lot of names to drop....… Didn't Israel sell arms to Iran for the US to finance the Contras? Talk about an implausible conspiracy theory!
All too often, fantastic conspiracy theories are created to hide the elements of truth and journalists can ruin their careers for questioning the accepted "official version." I have told my students to never question the official version of 9/11 in its entirety if they want a career in the newsroom.
CBS etc reported this morning that other inmates and guards report that the guard on duty that night was NOT a regular prison employee, and that shrieks and yelling were heard from Epstein's cell area during the block of time during which he would have died.
This administration, political party and the segment of society it now represents is throwing too much at us to handle. I for one am getting overwhelmed.
Here's the problem.... The "grandaddy" of them all, the JFK Assassination, was clearly a conspiracy. Leaders (Richard Helms) lie about it, evidence stolen (James Angleton), and witnesses/conspirators are eliminated (Lee Harvey Oswald to name one). So if it "worked" with JFK, why wouldn't it "work" with Epstein.
Certain things are beyond belief. Lee Harvey Oswald "just happened" to get a job at the Book Depository? Jeffrey Epstein "just happened" to be taken off suicide watch.
My point is, sometimes "crazy conspiracy theories" aren't so crazy.
Occam’s razor. Cui bono. Psychology. Motive and opportunity. Forensics.
All simple remedies to cut through conspiratorial fevers.
Try them! They work.
1
What you say in this column has been said better: Where there is smoke, there is fire.
And yet.
The issue really isn't the conspiracy theories. The issue is the inability of so many to critically reason away most of them. Consequently, charlatans like Trump are able to hack our democracy and create support for his ridiculous presidency among a very gullible (and substantial) portion of the electorate.
It is as if all of the constitutional protections and centuries of precedent surrounding our democracy have been stripped away and we are being governed by the National Enquirer.
1
That’s a good start, Ross.
Please keep writing and developing the details. The rest of us conspiracy theorists either run off the rails or get stuck along the way. We don’t have resources beyond our own minds, but journalists have the tools, the time, and the staff to actually dig down to find the details.
I expect that data from Epstein will reveal many repulsive and disgusting facts as those details come out.
Is it a coincidence that so many of the rich, famous, intelligent, and even royal people that have already been connected to him are universal in their denials of any sordid behavior?
From my pre-retirement employment in the investment business, I was never acquainted with Epstein. But I knew people who were. These were the pre-viagra days and at least one kept caverject in the refrigerator so it was available on days when “lunch meeting with Epstein” was on the calendar. We thought it was code for something else.
That’s no theory.
Had I known the details, I surely would have called the police.
2
Yes, thank you. Attention Mr. Warzel, who really seems to be in the wrong business.
1
Somewhere, in the great beyond, there is a black sleeve with three cards in it. I believe those cards indicate Professor Barr in the cellar with the rope.
1
What is the simplest explanation of the Epstein suicide? When was the last time you heard an 8 year-old say, "When I grow up, I want to be a prison guard?"
1
The trips on Epstein's plane (search for the Lolita Express) have been documented, and is a who's who of the rich and powerful. You don't accidentally get on Epstein's private jet.
1
I wanted to read about Trump's efforts to silence Epstein but all I got was Kelley Ann and something about the Clintons.
2
You just have to know human nature to conclude that it is entirely plausible that it was at a minimum “assisted suicide”
1
Now here is a question:
Why is it that the authorities are continuing a massive investigation of the Epstein's sexual activity, but nobody cares to do a massive investigation of his Hedge Fund activity?
4
A few conspiracies that have proven to be true:
The Gulf of Tonkin incident
Weapons of mass destruction in Iraq
And yes, Trump campaign officials colluding with Russia
1
@HG Wells
Well lets be fair. Collusion with Russia not "proven true", just "extremely credible and likely evidence strongly suggesting it to be true".
"Conspiracy theory is a term used to discourage institutional analysis"-Chomsky
3
So. The 'UFO' that your own newspaper reported about a year and a half ago, the 'Tic-Tac', was, what exactly? Just their imagination, but on videotape? A piece of US military machinery that our own fighter pilots have no knowledge of? Something, from somewhere, some place far more advanced than us, operating maneuvers off the coast of California and oh, by the way, other coastlines without fear of being shot down or intercepted? Seems like something we might want to know more about.
Then there's your own backyard. Two 110 story buildings don't turn to explosive dust (including ALL their office furniture and hundreds of vanished people) and still have the kinetic energy to destroy the lower construction. Researchers who doggedly pursued the truth even though they were maligned by your sort as 'truthers' (now there's an Orwellian turn of phrase) know what happened. How, who benefited and a lot more. If you were in NYC that day, you're probably still carrying around the residual poisons in your body, one would think you would want to know the truth.
But in your mind, the victims don't matter. Not the victims of the Catholic priests, or the real terrorists, or the victims of the real terrorists who continue on pursuing war in the name of revenge against those who have done nothing against us, but who just happen to have vast resources still unplundered.
1
Conspiracy theory: Trump is a great deal maker, the best ever.
1
Our government (most governments) and the media (especially the media) are liars.
Sensibly, nobody trusts either.
"But also recognize that in the case of Jeffrey Epstein and his circle, the conspiracy was real". Um, no. The conspiracy that has everyone all het up is that he was somehow murdered to protect the Clintons, not that he was a sexual predator and procurer. Leave it to Douthat to try and normalize the ridiculous behavior of the far right by changing the subject .
Case in point: Recent coverage of the mass shooters has focused on a "white nationalist" terrorist problem, when many people (including the Anti-Defamation League and the Southern Poverty Law Center) have identified a global network of misogyny and male supremacy called the "manosphere" that recruits men into the alt-right. Other reputable sources have reported on the history of misogyny and violence against women of recent mass shooters. "The Family" is a documentary about a male supremacist "Jesus" cult (that mingles with the highest echelons of Democratic and Republican leaders) that believes men--not-women--are "chosen" by God to lead societies and their homes. Yet if you talk about a male supremacist global hate movement towards women--specifically women who challenge male supremacy, or "feminists"--people roll their eyes, and accuse you of "playing the gender card." The world has a long history of gaslighting women who expose male supremacy as "witches" and "hysterics."
Not to take away from an interesting and important discussion but my attention was grabbed by the photo of the Fox News headline banner. “Bad boy” financier? Really? How demeaning and trivializing to his victims. Not that I would expect anything less from Fox News
The Epstein So-called “suicide” makes as much sense as the “self inflicted death” of the late Washington Post journalist Jaamal Khashoggi‘s or his “disappearance”. - depending on the day.
Nothing makes sense, other than it was premeditated and planned by someone, other than the Epstein or Khashoggi The question is: will the Justice Department’ Bill Barr get way with it.
1
Bill Clinton may not be “the most interesting man in the world” but he sure might be the luckiest!
1
Epstein was not alone on his private jet deemed the Lolita Express. He kept personal footage of his exploits on dvd in a safe. Let’s see where this leads to. Degenerates like Epstein flock together.
2
The term conspiracy theory is just one of many memes used to dismiss totally logical, rational questions anyone would have about events that appear to be a lot more complex than the official cover story.
"Conspiracy" is how the human race acquired its earth dominance--the most important trait we have that no other animal has is linguistic, symbolic, and abstract communications networking on a global scale.
When a pimp for underage girls who has hosted the most powerful world leaders and apparently recorded what happened is suddenly arrested and then turns up dead in what was supposed to be a secure facility, any person who knows how the world really works would suspect that it was at least an "assisted suicide" if not an outright hit job.
Never trust the official cover story. Always be skeptical and ask the obvious questions.
In Epstein's case, given that he could have testified about the illegal and disgusting acts of the most powerful men in the world, it was only a matter of time before he was killed.
It is almost never realized that the official 9/11 Commission Report - which is a tissue of lies and omissions - is nothing but a conspiracy theory itself. Philip Zelikow, a de facto agent of the Bush Administration, directed and wrote the report which had zero interest in getting at the truth. And the truth will never be known. Whether Epstein killed himself or was murdered will also live long in folklore without resolution.
It doesn’t help matters that the Fox News crawl shown in the photo describes Epstein as a “bad boy financier”. Downplaying the horrific crimes comitted by this man as mere naughtiness (wink wink) tells us everything we need to know about the seriousness with which any official investigation will be undertaken.
1
To look for suspects you look for both motive and the ability to carry out the crime. The ability to influence the internal workings of a prison diminishes to infinitesimal after only one or two degrees of separation. Many people of power seem to have had a motive to kill Epstein but only a tiny fraction had an actual ability to carry it out. You'd have to be stupid enough to believe in "Q" to believe that someone outside of the prison system and their bosses, the justice department, could arrange for Epstein to be left alone in his cell unobserved with a bed sheet.
the scariest thing is that no matter how outlandish or paranoid, how unsupportable or illogical, eccentric conspiracy theories often attract armies of true believers eager to belong. once those armies are massed, it's pretty easy to sell them on some further extension of the underlying concept, enabling those with genuine (possibly dangerous) agendas to build instant mass followings. if you don't believe me, ask Steve Bannon... or, ask George Soros or any other member of the "international globalist elite" (formerly known as a cabal of international Jewish bankers conspiing to take over the world).
There seems to be a kind of Gresham’s Law about information, with fake news driving out real news. Start with the ubiquitousness of the Internet, which in little more than a decade, has become the main source of news. Then add a president who despises the First Amendment and allies himself with a whole host of junk-and-conspiracy purveyors, from Alex Jones to the National Enquirer. Typically, he desperately wants the approval of the mainstream press, but he’s never going to get it. When he himself still clings to Obama birther conspiracy and the New Jersey 9/11 muslims celebrating, what hope is there for any belief in facts and evidence? I find it remarkable how deference to the office allows him to avoid being directly called out by the press. Jim Acosta is virtually the only journalist who confronted him, and he didn’t do it very well. More courage please. Democracy dies in darkness.
It is pretty pathetic to hear the conspiracy theories from the largely intelligent and informed NYTimes readers. Frankly, it is also hypocritical. I have heard repeated criticism of the conspiracy spreading Alex Jones in these comment sections, but now that the potential conspiracy fits a liberal agenda (Trump ordered Epstein killed) it’s fair game.
This truly shows the power of bias. Epstein hung himself in his cell. AG William Barr didn’t order a hit. Anyone who knows how disorganized and overstepped prison staff can be would understand this.
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If no one is fired or demoted then you know the fix was in.
We learned in high school (or before) that just because you're paranoid doesn't mean people aren't out to get you.
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Feel a little better now after yesterday's oped that called the Epstein debacle "The World Cup of Disinformation". It's just disquieting though how pervasive these "the truth is out there" situations are in our strange world.
Nothing is real and nothing to get hung about?
Data and facts, Mr Douthat. In the end you have to have data and facts for me to believe something.
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what is "elite anxiety"?
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Finally someone allowing for the possibility that this man wasn’t “accidentally” allowed to die in his cell. Epstein allegedly had information on possibly hundreds of powerful paedos! But sure...he commited suicide.
"When to Take Conspiracies Seriously"? In trump-world just apply "Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty" paraphrased as "Accuse the other side with conspiracies that you are actually guilty of." Both GOP-trump modus operandi for thriving in their corrupt world. That's the basis their base lives on, sustained by the hate-feedback-loop for profit of the right-wing media.
The grain of truth in a lie, conspiracy or false accusation always points back to its creator.
For most of trump's lies, the inverse is usually true. He accuses Mexicans of being the criminals and rapists that he himself is; maliciously accusing virtually all Mexicans, women and babies too, of crimes he himself committed to justify his run to for president.
Irony that lies and conspiracies of trump pale in comparison to the reality and horror of this man.
"Russian conspiracy is real." Putin's little green men, doing Putin's bidding and dirty work in eastern Ukraine and unstable countries - like unstable divided America - are real.
UFOs killing the ocean is real - man made unidentified floating objects made of plastic, with more to come from plastic city (Pittsburgh, Stealers of a plastic-pollution free world).
Epstein was under a Barr-trump justice dept. Conspiracies, rightly, should point to them; Barr un-recused himself intruding to get Epstein out of Rikers on behalf of Epstein's friend and Barr's boss.
The “deep state” conspiracy is becoming a real world "dumb state" under trump cronies.
Douthat is confusing commonality with causality.
When a system evolves to the point where multiple actors share an objective (e.g. get rich, stay in power, rape altar boys, etc), then those actors will begin to behave in concert and in support of each other without the need for any conspiracy or central driver.
Conspiracies are typically exposed because the only way for three people to keep a secret is if two of them are dead.
Oh, this essay is so belabored. Isn’t it obvious that the death of Epstein is the handy work of Prince Andrew and the vast network of the agents of the House of Windsor?!
The biggest conspiracy in my lifetime was conning the American public to believe that Saddam was a threat to our security therefore justifying the invasion of Iraq. They even invented the tidy little term "weapons of mass destruction" to scare the public. I guess your whole point is that a kernel of truth can take on a life of its own. And it may open the door to a larger truth. What I don't understand is that the same group of Republicans who refused to accept the word of independent weapons inspectors and ignored a conspiracy in pain sight during the Iraq run-up are now willing to believe every conspiracy related to the Clintons. The fact that you are even mentioning QAnon and the Catholic clergy scandal in the same paragraph is puzzling. One is real, with victims, and has been obvious for generations while the other is an internet money grab.
Very well written and right on the money. Even if the conspiracy theorists are almost always pointing to the wrong fire as the source of the smoke, in many cases the real fire does exist, ignited by more down to earth imperatives and tended with limited coordination among involved parties.
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The idea that our electronic voting machines were hackable was long treated as a tin hat conspiracy theory; even in the face of considerable evidence, many in government and the media continue to push this characterization.
The idea that Russia might have hacked into the voting systems in several states now appears by many to be credible.
The suggestion that domestic actors may have done the same thing is still a conspiracy theory.
I find this amusing and absurd.
Read up on Operation Northwoods (google it) the Pentagon's plan to start a war with Cuba in 1962, authored by Admiral Lemnizer and proposed to President Kennedy. The proposals called for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or other U.S. government operatives to commit acts of terrorism against American civilians and military targets, blaming them on the Cuban government, and using it to justify a war against Cuba. The possibilities detailed in the document included the possible assassination of Cuban émigrés, sinking boats of Cuban refugees on the high seas, hijacking planes, blowing up a U.S. ship, and orchestrating violent terrorism in U.S. cities.The proposals were rejected by John F. Kennedy, but suppose Kennedy had gone along with item nine on the list (involving drone airliners exploding over Cuba loaded with "students" on the way to a conference in Venezuela). And that this was the start of a hot war with Cuba and the USSR. How would we react to this series of events? Would this be a paranoid imagination at work? Or reality...
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The Epstein investigation will make an interesting test. Should it point to Bill Clinton, Fox News will be all-in and there will be fanatical support for pursuing the thinnest thread. But if the needle points to Trump, that theory will be the work of crackpots.
The measure of a conspiricy theory should be (1) who stands to gain and (2) what, honestly, is the likelihood of ever knowing the exact and complete truth? I think it's likely we'll eventually learn the truth about UFOs. But the VIPs involved with Epstein? Not a chance.
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Complete and honest explanations can usually deflate typical conspiracy theories. Will the Bureau of Prisons be able to do a complete and honest investigation? If not, expect the theories to flow freely and expect them to be pointed at people at the highest levels; those who have the most to gain from Epsteins silence.
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Oswald Spengler, over 100 years ago, said we live in a materialistic period of thoroughgoing rationalism in which everything is expected (believed) to have a clear explanation. In theory at least, there are no mysteries, just things for which we have not found a scientific explanation. With no incalculable, non-material forces (spirits?) to threaten us we frighten ourselves with things like flying saucers, foreign intervention in elections, prehistoric creatures returning to life to eat us, planetary heat-death from self-caused climate deterioration, entropic doom--and life goes on; the bills still have to paid at the end of the month.
Part of the reason to adopt a conspiracy "theory" is because the U.S. government regularly lies and seems to think that is the responsible thing to do. Maybe it is, but it promotes an attitude of cynicism and disbelief towards the government that, in the long run, is probably more destructive than the temporary gain achiieved by lying. Take the recent killing of Osama bin Laden. The government's story seems to be pretty much fantasy designed so as not to cause trouble for Pakistan or the U.S. Seymour Hersh seems to give a much more plausible account. The "meddling" by the Russians is another fantasy story designed to accomplish certain goals. There are undoubtedly elements of truth in the stories put forward but, for example, if one were to compare Russian meddling in U.S. affairs with that of Israel or U.S. meddling in the political affairs of others, then that would put things in much more balanced perspective. The solution to the conspiracy story problem is at least in part to demand the government speak the truth no matter how much it hurts. By the way I do believe that there is a conspiracy of lying by the government concerning Epstein.
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All those billions floating around with all those elites needing silence - a potent combination to ensure the disappearance, rather than the demise, of Epstein...
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Conspiracy theories are like quarks. . . The only other-based scientific explanation people have been able to come up with to intellectually convince themselves otherwise.
Hofstadter's brilliant book is correct, and your dismissal of him by making him an adjective is not justified.
Sure, conspiracy theories arise from real needs. Sure, some of them turn out to be true – there are, after all, real conspiracies.
But don't confuse naming a problem with understanding it, or diagnosing a problem with curing it.
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What are we supposed to believe from this statement? That Donald Trump is telling the truth about Bill Clinton's involvement in a sex ring? My own suspicion is that what started out as a pleasure romp became a listening post for various actors, perhaps including various governments. But that's only my suspicion. The truth about this business is that the whole truth about it will almost certainly never be known completely. It was designed that way, and it will in the end reach beyond Mr. Epstein's grave and that of the lives and reputations of others ensnared in this serpentine business. Whether it will be some kind of cultural and political milestone remains to be seen. It ought to be a warning to a pleasure-saturated society that there are some things more important than pleasure, including, for example, serious legality and statesmanship.
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Who benefits from Epstein's suicide is one question that powers the conspiracy theories. If I put the question to myself of what I would do in his position, suicide seems an option.
If I put myself in the position of being a participant in his activities, helping also seems to me to be an option.
This is called projection, and it is a primitive way of dealing with things that are painful to me.
It is easier to think that someone did it than to say that I knew the good side of Epstein, and I am sorry he is dead. Admittedly his record seems dismal.
Conspiracy theory or not, there are only two rational possibilities: either Jeff Epstein committed suicide or he was killed. And both these possibilities point to a single fact: under Donald Trump, events happening in the United States of America more and more resemble those that only happen in third world countries.
Assuming that Jeff Epstein did manage to kill himself, it is a simple fact that only in a third world country, a highly valuable prisoner who has already tried to kill himself once will be left alone in a prison cell with objects and material that let him commit suicide. It is also the case that only in a third world country, there will be no video cameras or guards to continuously monitor such an important prisoner.
Now if he was actually killed in his prison cell, again this is the kind of events that have been happening in third world countries. There are myriads of examples where enemies of powerful men in third world countries end up in prison and then "accidents happen."
Does the above imply that, under Donald Trump, the United States of America is turning into a third world country? May be you guys are too close to what is going on to get the big picture.
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One of the great mysteries of our glorious democracy and our freedoms, is how hard it is to get to the truth especially in our public institutions. After decades of avoiding transparency and open government we have FOI laws; and yet, the legal battles to access public documents still takes years in some cases.
One would imagine there are thousands of sealed court cases. There have been federal investigations where the results are sealed for decades. Were they sealed to protect the innocent or to avoid public scrutiny of a injustice?
The public have seen redacted released documents-black lines on white paper. This has not instilled confidence in FOI.
There is the long standing belief in most societies, and most likely rightly so, that the state will keep secrets from the public. In many cases the argument is the public can't handle the truth.
We've learned or should have learned not to instinctively trust what we hear and read; facebook and social media has proven we have not learned that life lesson yet. The truth remains elusive.
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I paraphrase Ross’s editorial as: "Gee, I don't know, conspiracy theories are sometimes circling around important truths."
I agree with the commentators who say that Ross could have been much more useful for our public discourse by pointing out truths we do know amidst the confusion. Instead, Ross hammers on cofounding points.
Ross hits some nearby nails on the head to guide away from the following important nails:
(1) The president of the United States has tried to ramp up the craziness by tweeting with zero evidence to connect Bill Clinton and Epstein's death, thus (given our current climate) making the job of honest investigators much harder and more dangerous.
(2) Ross writes about "pre-Mueller report collusion coverage ... a classic example of how conspiracy theories find a purchase in the supposedly sensible center". Ross is using the Epstein cloud of confusion to mystify the fact that the Mueller report actually did fill in many blanks to document criminal behavior surrounding Donald Trump.
(3) One goal of Trump/Russia is to lead the US into a state of chaotic misinformation, which provides cover for their malicious tactics.
We naturally live in a state of chaotic misinformation. I get that many readers found Ross's editorial balanced and thoughtful, as rising above an "eighth grade level". But I can't help but see the underbelly of how Ross look at the underbelly.
Genuine question: Should we expect more from a NY Times editorial?
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It would seem that conspiracy theories arise from people who have a social need to be connected to a cause and that members of that cause are somehow exceptional just because they connected.
Being exceptional then drives all other motivations, including open minded review of available data. The anti-vaccination folks are a prime example. They tout unjustified fears more because those beliefs somehow make them exceptional in spite of the fact that their beliefs are thoroughly disproven.
The aura of being exceptional is compounded by the existence of a group of believers. It is important that there be a select group of believers who feed off each other's beliefs. Data for support is virtually anything that can be twisted into a shape of supporting the theory. Open minded review of data isn't considered. Moreover, the perfect conspiracy works best if there is basis for believing that "we'll just never know because THEY, e.g., the government, are hiding the truth."
It makes little difference whether the conspiracy is actually true or false. The primary driver is a social need to be a part of an exceptional little group who derive that opinion from having insider information that others are not privy to.
Conspiracies are most likely to be false or un-provable, because if a conspiracy theory is actually proven to be true and it goes mainstream, it takes all the fun out of it. A person is no longer exceptional if everyone believes.
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Believe everything and nothing.
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There are theories and there are cospiracies, but like fake news, they are oxymoronic phrases, with an emphasis on moronic.
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Thank you. Yep.
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No. America has always been obsessed with conspiracy theories. JFK, Pearl Harbor, the moon landing, Fluoride, Clinton pedophilia and on and on. Speak to those convinced that something other than the truth is real and you find they have one overwhelming shared characteristic- ignorance. If we ever lived in a time where fact and reason are necessary it is now. Trump knows his supporters are the "poorly educated" and he uses conspiracy theories to stir up their foolish fantasies. Wait for a complete investigation, evaluate the facts and then come to a conclusion.
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You may be waiting a long time, depending upon who is investigating and for whom the “facts” are inconvenient.