When you elect a crook, you get a crooked government. When do we get to see the check book?
3
Saying that 'both Bush and Obama faced recessions during their terms' is like saying a flooded basement is the same as Katrina.
7
Look at the facts, look at the graphs for stocks, economic growth and unemployment https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45827430
It’s surprising. Trump has made virtually no difference for the economy. Neither positive nor negative.
5
So what this says is that the Republican Party basically acts like Deutsche Bank for Trump; throwing taxpayer money at his economic ineptitude and their Supply-Side snake oil insanity and expecting a different outcome.
I recall how the Republican Party fought the economic stimulus package in 2009 when the economy was in recession and reeling from yet another Republican-induced fiscal disaster, and the end-product was watered-down.
Republicans stymied stimulus when it was needed to benefit the greatest number of people, but pushed it with tax cuts when it was not needed to benefit the fewest (top 1%).
5
The day President Trump took office, he stepped on to the third base of a healthy economy, to use baseball as a metaphor. It was being held for him by President Obama. In his mind, of course, he thought he'd hit a triple.
It was a team of people who got us there--Mr. Obama, Mr. Bernanke, and Mrs. Yellin, among others. But it's beyond Mr. Trump's character to acknowledge the presidency and the economy as a team effort. He views himself as the whole franchise, the mastermind who owns, coaches, and is the sole player on the team. He pitches, he catches, he hits. However, with the enormous tax cuts given to him by Congress and the low interest rates given to him by the Fed, with which he's been blessed, you could argue that he stole home, instead of hitting the winning run.
4
The day Trump is removed from office will be the day the rest of the world will trust us again. Markets will soar and trade will resume. Our moral compass will be restored and our fellow Americans especially the children will sleep again. The poor who have had food stamps taken away from them and the sick who have lost their health care and all those who have suffered due to this man will not go hungry or in pain any more. The cages will be gone and we can heal.
2
I doubt it. Trust, once lost, is difficult to regain. Trump may be the immediate evil, but the system that made him president can never again be the shining city on the hill
The only purpose of this article is to try to take away Trumps biggest win so far and that is the economy.
The truth is that he has contributed to its growth quite a bit in many unmeasurable ways. Whether you like the policies or not, he has deregulated many markets, increased consumer and business confidence and put more money in peoples pockets.
Obama was so anti business, pro regulation that business and consumers had no confidence in his policies.
1
@Kev
That's what Trump and his supporters say. The reality is different https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45827430
1
Where is the emergency under which he is manipulating markets unilaterally?
1
It's about time an acknowledgement was made as to the assist Trump has gotten for the economy. To paraphrase Obama: Trump didn't build this.
Having so acknowledged this fact now let's talk about the mess the incoming Dem president will have to clean up when it all comes crashing down. See: Obama post Bush.
6
Donald Trump has the attention span of a gnat. His only concern is how he looks today. Whenever he slams the Federal Reserve, I think to myself, what kind of grades did he get in Macro-Econ? If they were stable genius level, he would be more than eager to divulge them. "If" is the operative word.
3
The Great Trump Stock Market is a Myth
From the bottom of the market in March 2009 until the Nov 2016 election, monthly growth in the S&P 500 average about 1.8% per month.
From there until the recent peak, average monthly growth in the S&P declined to about 1.2%.
And it gets worse over a nore recent time period. When we start from the market's open on Jan 2, 2018 until the same peak, the monthly growth average has declined to just 0.33%.
1
Why aren't we doing what the Bank of Japan is doing? They are basically printing more money to pay off debt. We haven't done that in the past because of fear of inflation--but it would be better to have slightly higher interest rates--typical historical rates and print more money. The higher interest rates would curtail irrational exuberance in the stock market and give retirees income from interest. What we're doing is streaming money to the rich. We gotta stop that!
And we could reduce our deficit at the same time.
6
Party on Wayne. Party on Garth. = GOP economic strategy.
6
Under Obama the GOP forced the Fiscal Cliff and Sequester onto the country to hurt the recovery. Then once Trump was in office they ended the Sequester. This was economic terrorism.
15
So Trump's success rides on the backs of other people's hard work and in spite of his own ineptitude.
That's a summary applicable to every aspect of his life.
17
I’d refer you to Steve Earle, “Dixieland:”
“My name’s Kilrain of the 20th Maine
And I damn all gentlemen
Whose only worth is their father’s name
And the sweat of a workin’ man...”
3
With all the economic (and other) destruction Trump hath poured over the nation, his alleged alma mater, Wharton School of Business, should be adhered of it’s supposed graduate.
What the heck did they teach him about economics?
Let’s see the grades/transcripts of this incompetent. He is clearly not able to steer our ship of state.
7
The Federal Reserve has a duty to do what's best for the country without regard for political considerations. Trump's trying to change that. He might be succeeding.
Congress always has a political agenda. Despite that, they're still duty bound to act across the board equally in the best interests of ALL of their constituents, and not just the rich ones that contribute the most money to their reelection campaigns at the expense of everyone else.
That group of everyone else greatly outnumber the rich donors and should be able to perceive when they're being short-changed, then vote out the person that continues to short-change them.
I hope that group of everyone else doesn't continue to allow themselves to be short-changed.
We will see.
3
Wait a minute- didn’t Trump day he was going to get rid of the debt “very quickly?” What??!! Trump lied?!
Quick- blame it on Hillary’s emails!
10
as expected, the nytimes fails to mention the tax cuts are due to trump with the republicans, and NOT the current democratic congress. - individuals that are easily confused, for example the left wing, will will think it is the current banana republic democratic congress that assisted after reading this article. Reducing regulatory enforcement by trump has also helped. however, the fed did raise interest rates last year which did create some financial burden. as is the norm with anything Trump written in the NYTimes, this article is misleading
Sky is falling ... oh no tariffs ... we read this stuff from the NYT and WSJ every day. But it still keeps humming along. Reason interest rates increases have "not kept up" with the rule is BECAUSE of Trumps comments. If the tariffs hold a while the deficit decreases (because of the tariff intake) and manufacturing in the USA increases. Yes, it will happen. Tariffs on Chinese goods hurt us equally for a while until more manufacturing returns home. Thats a GOOD THING. I grew-up in Pittsburgh. That was a good thing. If the DEMS get sole control they'll never let manufacturing come back. They'll remove the tariffs. If the tariffs stay Middle class (yes that thing fading out of existence ..) will come back and the consumers will rule again. Meth addicts and the opioid crisis would go away. It would make Wall-Street's influence on the economy less. But New York, then DEMS and Wall Street will NOT let that happen.
1
@Pete Laughable comment, at best.
Some products made in China and subject to tariffs may be decamping to other low-cost countries that are not on Trump's radar, such as Vietnam, Thailand and other countries.
So, I would not expect much repatriation, other than products that can be produced through menial low cost labor here.
Further, when you begin to pay that tax on goods you purchase and your discretionary income falls due to those tariffs, will you still sing high praise?
What empirical evidence do you have that supports your assertion that if Democrats gain sole control they will never let manufacturing come back?
Lastly, that disappearing middle class will not mysteriously reappear due to trade wars. That class is disappearing due to the inequality in wages and salaries, and that wages and salaries are, while not quite stagnant, are not keeping pace with the cost of living.
13
The Congress and the FED have acted as if the US was trying to get out of deep recession. In reality the US is going through its longest sustained growth in history. There has been so much stimulus thrown at the economy. There is no secret about efforts by the GOP and the FED to cover for Trump's trade war follies. Ultimately sooner or later all this will cause serious harm to the economy. Deflation is a serious consideration.
5
BBC is NOW reporting:
UK economy shrinks for the first time since 2012
The UK economy contracted by 0.2% between April and June, its worst performance for more than six years.
Where's the NYTimes story?
5
What's to report? British yokels voted to go back in time for the end of their empire and their tiny island nations economy is smaller as a result. It only going to get smaller from here.
3
I did not vote in 2016. I will in 2020
As a country, we are devolving at the speed of light. This administration is toxic to America and and to humanity as a whole.
* I’m Van and I approve this message
12
Yet Trump has managed to tank the economy with one stupid tweet. He should be impeached then indicted.
10
Despite all this "help," Trump is hell-bent on trashing the economies of the USA and the world!
That's his own personal "accomplishment'!
10
Navarro wants to decouple from China and Trump takes bad advice, not knowing anything himself. Trump doesn't realize the world markets are connected. UK just reported decreased growth, shrinking economy. (See BBC front page today.)
Trump's primitive ignorant trade and tariff wars are going to tank world economies.
I hate to say it, but if that is what it takes to get him out of office, I am willing to pay the price and take the losses.
8
Why, for heaven and the future's sakes, does anybody put Trump in front instead of my country, the future, and the world. There is such thing as a crashproof balloon created by an overheated economy. This is antipatriotism of the worst sort, accompanied by violence and hate and cheating (McConnell, the grim reaper, getting help from Russia for his upcoming election, and Trump's destructive cabinet, for example).
History shows that it takes 6-8 years and the bust is proportional to the boom. It also shows that you need a great Democrat (FDR, Clinton, Obama - yes, I know, we're talking about the economy, not their personal lives, and Clinton was the original "it's the economy stupid" guy) to get us back on track.
This time the profiteering, greed, stupidity and corruption are so great, and the ability to appreciate who really helps ordinary people so covered by blindness and victim blaming, that when the crash comes it will take us all down.
Then, there's the climate, which is now demanding full-throttled attention, not denial and tribalism. At a time when we need to become aware of our increasingly wasteful ways, we are being given a circus and 2D pleasures beyond measure, with its concomitant toxic waste.
Earth is real, and denying reality does not work. Humans are capable of great heights and great depths. Of a certainty, the straight road to perdition is not the way, no matter how "winning" it seems to be.
6
The republicans insisted on austerity and sequestration under Obama, actively holding back growth for six years.
If you’re a young person who was beginning your career in the years 2010 - 2016, that’s lost time that will adversely affect your life, and six years you can never get back.
11
Bad things are coming; with very little tools left to fix them.
6
Reality Check the reason why are not so easy to see but i do agree rich diffently got it better off. This is land opprutunity if person doesnt learn to apply know how some one else will. Doing so those will be eating your lunch . This is real world an its fair to say it works . Never to young or old to learn couple new tricks or talent.
When he was campaigning, Trump said that economic growth during the Obama years wasn’t real, it was an artifact of low interest rates the Fed kept in place ‘just to make Obama look good.’ He also said the unemployment statistics were ‘fake’ and didn’t mean a thing. Fast forward to our current nightmare. Now interest rates can’t be low enough, and without low rates, the economy won’t grow. And those unemployment stats? Why, they’re the gold standard measure of success.
None of this should surprise us, should it? The man in the White House has a severe allergy to rational thought and the truth. Without a regular dose of ‘alternate facts,’ he breaks out in hives.
12
The recession is underway. Simply not visible yet. They never are at the beginning. Trade uncertainty, relying on the Fed to push string, Trump’s erratic policy (a roll of the dice), massive USA fiscal deficit, equity markets overdone. Increasing travel bans / warnings to USA ...see gun violence. Sorry, not looking swell. Finally, Trump inherited an economic growth curve that was we’ll underway.
11
Seems pretty obvious in a consumer society that if you want sustainable growth you have to invest in your consumers having higher wages and the capacity to buy more products.
Debt is temporary and causes recessions as it’s not real wage growth. The more sustainable method is wages.
Americans are more productive than any time in history yet have shared none of the profits in wages. Globalization though good for peace has been managed in such a way that it has allowed the wealthy to wage class warfare on society.
And now here we are blaming immigrants to keep the heat off the crooks.
13
So true ... and the spending of SS each month by millions of Americans has an impact on the economy. SS has been weakened and may disappear and so will all that spending.
OK so he might have helped the overall economy looks better, but is that whats good for the country? or only to a particular group of people?! what are you trying to say with this article?!
3
The only thing that's clear is that this is a President who thrives on chaos and drama -- and like everything else he does, he never takes responsibility for his actions.
And being a person of inherited wealth, Donald Trump has never learned the value and appreciation of hard work, preferring instead to throw money and investments around without a care in the world.
Unlike his predecessor he inherited a fairly stable and prosperous U.S. economy coming out of the throes of a recession, but the only thing he has done is complain about it then take credit for it, and then raise taxes on the working poor and middle class while sparing big corporations and the ultra-wealthy.
No one ever bothered to tell him that the Federal Reserve is an independent entity that is not subject to his suggestions or Executive Orders.
In his defense, some may try to argue that Republicans are fiscally responsible, but they are always first and foremost only in it for themselves.
With ever increasing trade wars and sanctions, both the U.S. and world economies are going slowly grind down to a halt.
Our future national debt will last for years.
And everyone will have to pay for it.
8
Sure the Fed can mitigate the actions of the biggest loser in American business but us working class folks will pay more for everything we get from China which is about half of what we buy. To me that’s a pay cut.
12
We know (because Ronald Reagan said so) that "deficits don't matter."
What Reagan seems to have left off the end of the statement were the words "if you are a Republican president, but woe is me if you are a Democrat."
The last time I looked, deficits were all denominated in the same green dollars no matter which party was in office.
10
Give Mitch McConnell a shot of truth serum and this is what he'd sound like: "Sure, the federal budget deficit usually falls when the unemployment rate declines, but now that the we've endorsed Trump, so what! Look at what we get from the deal - Tax Cuts ON TOP of increased Super PAC Donations! It's why the GOP is in what is known as "public service" (tee hee). As if. Who would be dum enough to believe that one. "Public service". No wonder Kentucky is in fifth place as the least educated state in the country. Hey, works for me!"
7
"...a New York Times analysis shows that under Mr. Trump, Fed policy has supported Mr. Trump’s push for economic growth."
Of course, this pronouncement flies in the face of the dogmatic position taken by Democrats for three years. In their (ideologically motivated) reading of the economy, Trump is responsible for none of US economic growth; it is all a result of Barack Obama's policies. Apparently that argument no longer hunts and the song has been changed to "Trump Has Plenty of Help," as the headline here reads.
But of course, the "help" from the Fed was a result of Trump hectoring them to take a pro-growth course, and implanting officials there who would do so. So the Times is now getting closer to the truth--economic growth is the result of Trump policies, as most in the nation believe. But while that message is too clear to to be denied to anyone who can read, it must be tempered to eliminate any suggestion that Trump has done anything right on his own.
3
One wonders how well we'd be doing if Trump hadn't started the trade war with China, participated in the Pacific trade agreement, and generally behaved in a stable fashion.
8
There are tremendous hidden costs to Trump's irresponsible deregulation of businesses: polluted air, polluted water, less safe food, less safe drugs, less safe working conditions. Corporations will reap the financial benefits the rest of us will face the consequences.
8
Growth for who, exactly?
2
What Trump knows about economics could fit in a thimble, with room left over for a six-pack.
11
Let’s see now:
Trump enterprises that are now gone with the wind or fast disappearing into the sunset (a partial list):
Trump Steaks
GoTrump (online travel site)
Trump Airlines
Trump Vodka
Trump Mortgage
Trump: The Game
Trump Magazine
Trump University
Trump Ice (bottled water)
The New Jersey Generals (pro football team)
Tour de Trump (bicycle race)
Trump Network (nutritional supplements)
Trumped! (syndicated radio spot)
Trump Taj Mahal (1991)
Trump’s Castle and Trump Plaza Casinos (1992)
Trump Plaza Hotel (1992)
Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts (2004)
Trump Entertainment Resorts (2009)
The United States of America (2016-2019)
To be continued.
17
@A. Stanton
Here's the thing w' your list, in nearly all the above failures, Trump himself came out ahead. (Even w' his $25 million Trump University fraud settlement.) Everybody else lost; the employees, construction workers, towns and taxpayers, lawyers, bankers and investors, all lost money dealing with him, but Trump himself came out ahead. He's making money off the presidency right now. He's a one man winning machine!
1
Donald Trump is a whiner, a professional victim, a blamer.
He never looks in the mirror and says: so what did I do wrong, and how can I improve?
He once claimed he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue. Perhaps.
But he would immediately claim that the person got in the way of the bullet.
It is left to others to pick up the shattered pieces Trump leaves all around him. But he has slowly surrounded himself only with others who will support the Trump-Victim myth. So no one picks up the pieces.
And his followers? Christians are called, as Luther said, to a life of continual repentance, constantly shedding the mistakes of the past, pressing forward to new service of God in the world.
That is not possible with Trump, since he makes no mistakes, on the economy, on anything. His conservative white evangelical followers do not call him on this, they COVER for him.
They too have became part of the company of enablers Donald Trump needs.
Hopefully, American voters will realize: it is not about what our President NEEDS, but about what our COUNTRY requires in order to move forward. That, Trump and his followers cannot offer, because they cannot even see it.
7
If trump himself 'had the reins' of most 'instruments' affecting our fiscal and/or monetary and/or trade 'circumstances' -- let alone of 'those' held by the 'private holders' of our economy -- the country surely would crater 'like' one of his casinos ... or 'like' the state our race relations are in as consequence of trump's racism and his vulgar, racist 'messaging' (plus the 'con' played on democracy by our electoral college).
2
Really, this country should take economic advice frm a man who went bankrupt how many times?
8
@Eleanor yes, for a man who went belly up on multiple real estate projects only to offer his contractors pennies on the dollar for payment and told them proudly "take it or leave it"
10
When the economy was good under Obama, it was all Obama's doing. Why does this article not surprise me?
1
Can you imagine what the economy would look like if Trump had not inherited the Obama economy, which is essentially continuing to this day? Oh, yes, he would have done exactly has he is doing now even if the economy had not been as good as it was when he came in - it is just his nature to do what he wants even if it is stupid (ie, see the last three years for proof).
Sad that Trump gets any credit at all - he has done absolutely nothing to enhance the economy (no, his tax cut did not help anyone but the rich and corporations - ie the rich) and has been trying very hard to destroy it - though he does not seem to realize that due to his utter incompetence.
5
Trump's grasp of economics is nil. Therefore beware of what lies ahead. He has had a great deal of fortune thru our strong economy, but he can easily destroy things with ease and his blind decisions.
3
C.S. Lewis would have been able to write several volumes of sequels to his "Screwtape Letters" with this pathetic little man as a model. 45 is the antithesis of every characteristic and behavior that makes an actual Christian.
5
In the beginning, Mussolini and Hitler were good for the economy too.
17
@Dr if Many times I mention the similarities between those two despotic individuals and Trump only to be laughed at.
I suppose those laughing have no grasp of history.
2
The elimination of petty regulations and mandates have had a profound effect on our economy, many of these have been around for 40 to 50 years and no longer serve a purpose. Long forgotten by Congress and State regulators. Compliance is very expensive and time consuming.
A perfect example is OSHA, no sunset clause on that agency which is empowered to invent new mandates. The number of on the job accidents, injuries, and yes deaths, has not changed since it began. The numbers are the same. millions, and millions, perhaps billions spent on compliance and fines.
And here we are 2019, many of those jobs we exported years ago. All companies are self regulated because they must but workers comp insurance and premiums can punish.
Obamas' big Government fixes added reams, and reams of useless mandates. Unless you are a small business, you would not understand, as many were illogical and are too hard to comprehend.
3
Um, I very much doubt that “you are a small business.”
But I am absolutely certain that you never heard of, oh, the coal miners who got blown up because Peabody Coal blew off the ventilators and safety checks, let alone the Triangle Shirtwaist Fire.
9
His biggest lift came from his predecessor who handed him a very strong economy.
It remains to be seen whether the tax cut for wealthy has a positive or negative effect on the economy long term. Recall that both the Reagan and Bush administrations (W) were followed by (and no doubt contributed much to) significant dislocations.
3
They will manipulate and prop things up until or after the Election. They will then turn around and blame the “ socialist” Democrats, as they always do, knowing that we a collective of stupid thoughtless goldfish who can’t remember two seconds ago. Let stay on course folks, the Republicans are fiscally responsible! Buy this healing oil my weary travelers, it can fix whatever ails you, from the common cold to missing limbs. See my man Mr Mconnell...He broke his collar bone not two weeks ago and now he’s dancing on the graves of your retirement and social security. Step up Step up!
4
Global electricity output is ~5,000 gigawatts...
Includes ~1,000 GW of renewables – though actual useful output a small fraction of that...
And they disrupt baseline power distribution as much as they augment...
What the planet “needs” is ~35,000 Gigawatts – and yes, some think that’d make it glow like a small sun...
But suggest you take a vote among the bottom 6 billion on whether they’d like to live more like the top 1 billion...
But I digress...
In rough #'s, this’d take 350,000 100MWe/200MWt (100 MW of electricity, 200 MW of heat) small modular reactors...
~7B people => ~20,000 per reactor...
I.e. remote towns could have a single reactor, much as they had a single coal-fired plant...
And can now have a single gas-fired plant...
Which can be bought today, and stood up within 6-9 months...
For about $50M or so...
1st punch line:
The “right” type of small modular nuclear reactor could be a virtual drop-in replacement/alternative for these gas-fired plants...
Even more so, if US DoE stopped shmearing peanut butter – and settled on this sort of criteria as fundamental...
For clarity – not identical, but as similar as practical...
US DoD drives similar winnowing for military – and commercial as by-product – jet/sub engines...
2nd punch line:
If we got as real and focused on this as on fracking...
We’d have several decades of nation-scale economic growth and technological progress a la Moore’s law...
Or – sit back and copy Russians/Chinese at a later date...
2
Trump is trying to throw in the kitchen sink to prop up the economy before the election with the latest bullied Federal Reserve.
One more card Trump likes to play after the attempt of bullying, see you in Court strategy failed is notoriously signed a non-disclosure agreement. ( The one of the many such as with Stormy Daniel and Playboy Playmate )
Trump will sign a non-disclosure agreement with China to settle the trade war and call it a " Win ".
1
The art of the deal by playing by the rules. I bet you complain constantly when your favorite sports teams lose in the final minutes because the opposing team uses the rules and the clock to win.
With almost half of the economic growth going to the top 1%, income inequality in this country is greater than ever. And as studies have shown, income inequality in a society is strongly correlated with a host of social ills including increased infant mortality, reduced life expectancy, teenage births, suicides, obesity, drug use, children's experience of conflict, etc.
Trump and his Republican enablers are doing nothing about this crisis, in fact they're aggravating it.
6
NPQR reported yesterday from the mid-west, Wisconsin, small farms are closing and American farmers have been “subsidized” ...err....bailed out with ...$103 BILLION hard earned American tax payer money!!!
And Conservatives like to demonize the Liberals as “socialists”!!! Without government bail out the Trump Trade War would have (and still is) devastating American farmers!
Wait for it....Trump Recession.
7
Of course the economy is doing great after you give the store away to corporations by cutting their taxes in half, not to mention tax breaks for the .1% and doing away with regulations that keep us safe and reduce climate warming. Trump has manipulated the taxes to stimulate the economy (to make him look like a genius) at the expense of the deficit, which is a bill that our children and grandchildren will be stuck with.
7
However dear NYTimes... your economics editors (see the The Daily Podcast last Friday)... are saying the that the FED is independent and not politically! And here seem to say imply the exact opposite: The FED is giving Mr. Trump a hand ...
The independence of the FED is a farce and we all know it.
5
The Obama Boom rolls on.
9
trump doesn't know the first thing about the economy. it's all run by his economists, and we all know it. why does the NYT run articles with headlines like this? you only enable him. you disappoint me.
4
Trump's economy is just the Obama economy with only 4 exceptions:
1) Tax revenue is down.
2) The market rose because most stock is still owned by the very wealthiest people in the world.
3) US importers got tax increases in the form of tariffs.
4) US farmers lost their markets and subsist on Trump's welfare handouts.
Otherwise, coal jobs and manufacturing jobs continue to disappear, and the only wage growth is in areas where Democrats have raised minimum wages.
9
Why would you let a bankrupt, liar, be in charge of anything? Particularly when he has a history of not paying his workers, of scam after scam, and won't reveal his taxes.
Come on NYTimes, he is illegitimate. You know it, and we all know it. Quit giving him the veneer of respectability. When the sunshine gets in, you will be made to look like fools. Sort of like this Epstein thing. Before you loved him, now you look stupid.
6
War is hell and Trump's war against China is no less a war than the Iraqi invasion declared by GW Bush without the physical casualties, but farmers losing their markets is also suffering. And like GW Trump has tried to keep our economy overly inflated with tax cuts to his rich friends. We know how that turned out with a Great Recession. Our next Democratic President I am sure will be left to straighten things out once again for a Republican president who cares only about short term numbers.
4
It’s incredibly sad that most Americans don’t understand economics. I’m no expert by any means, but the several college level classes I’ve taken on macro economics were just amazing.
While I was taking those classes, it was like being forced to unlearn pretty much everything I’d ever been told was true by adults who DIDNT have economics education!
Myth: the President has more impact on the economy than anything else.
Reality: aside from Trump’s trade war, the economy is typically almost completely removed from whatever the president does or doesn’t do. Markets can REACT to things the president does, but the power of the purse is constitutionally removed from the executive office.
Myth: the stock market reflects conditions of average Joe.
Reality: 80% of all stock market wealth is owned by the top 20% of wealth holders in the US. So if your family isn’t in the top 20%, what the stock market does or doesn’t do has pretty much 0 effect on your life.
Myth: the press, journalists, and media organizations are neutral arbiters of facts.
Reality: the US media and journalists are biased gatekeepers and content curators. It’s widely known in economic circles that employer-based healthcare is disastrous for everyone for example. You ever hear that from economists on the local news? Nope.
Just about every common convention that average people without a college education have about the economy is just wrong. And people don’t talk about that enough.
7
@Austin Ouellette wow you just mic dropped this. This was a very interesting view. Thanks for your comment.
1
The subhead says:
"The Fed and Congress have given President Trump the most growth-friendly climate in decades. But the trade war may test its limits."
Nah, Trump will test the limits. The trade war with China is only one such test, albeit a strong one. I do not hold out much hope that he will get that test resolved before the election, because he is a lousy negotiator, and a worse businessman. By then, a lot of farmers will have paid the ultimate financial price, losing their farms.
How many trade agreements has Trump ripped up, and how many new ones has he negotiated? The former exceed the latter by a country mile.
How about his unfulfilled promises of bringing back manufacturing jobs, and putting coal miners to work? Those promises will not likely be redeemed, because manufacturing is moving from one low cost country (china) to others (such as Vietnam), and cheap, abundant fracked gas makes coal noncompetitive.
Construction? The housing market is slowing down (even with low mortgage rates), and we have more malls than we need. A problem is finding uses for vacant commercial space.
If the economy goes south in the next 15 months, there is only one person who deserves the "credit" - the same guy who would insist on taking the credit if things go swimmingly - Donald J. Trump.
In my opinion, too many things might go wrong (any one of which could be a major problem), and we are in for a recession in the next 9 to 12 months.
4
And don’t forget the damage being done to American farmers! Trump had to bail them out with $103 billion!
3
If Trump continues his "easily winnable" trade war the merry-go-round will stop, and that right quick. And then, having given welfare to the wealthy in the form of trillions in tax cuts, what will the Republicans do when unemployment soars? Create even larger deficits? We have come to a very dangerous fiscal pass in this country, and we have no backstop or safety net.
6
All I know, my husband, who knows what he’s doing, has been pulling some money out of the stock market recently fearful of what may happen to our retirement accounts ( which we will need quite soon ) when everything comes crashing down within a year or two.
With the global chaos that’s beginning to happen as a result of DJT’s economic decisions, decisions his supporters appear to think only affects the US and China, the amount of low interest debt corporations have built-up, and the slowing of the economy, it seems almost inevitable this economic trajectory has to come to an end.
I’m no economist, and contrary to the advice of our financial manager, I’m feeling the increasing need to put the proverbial one year of safe earnings under the mattress or perhaps buried in a tin can in the backyard.
Let’s hope I’m wrong.
99
@It's About Time
I question your husband logic is retreating. Unless you need the money for living expenses, it's still best to keep it in. No one can time the market.
2
@daveandnancy3 I think the stock market is overvalued and simply reflects the higher earnings per share after the huge corporate tax cut and subsequent share buybacks. Productivity growth has not been consistent with stock market rises.
Historic cyclic economic patterns predict a contraction. Given the trade war nonsense and Brexit, the contraction will be large. Hoard cash.
25
@It's About Time--my brother, who works on wall street, told me to do the same. His reasoning is, if a democratic president gets elected in 2020, we will be in deep economic trouble.
2
Republicans only whine about the national debt when a Democrat is in the White House. Tax cuts for corporations already making records profits and benefitting the top 1%? No problem paying for it by adding 1.5 billion to the national debt. It's obvious that Congressional Republicans and the Fed are captive, and artificially juicing the economy to enhance Trump's re-election chances. Our tariff policy is being run by a man baby that thinks threats and bullying are effective negotiation tactics. Yes, the Chinese are cheats and steal intellectual property, but blunt coercion will not work.
2
Jerome Powell is Trump's best appointment, and he had to be talked into it by departed adults in the room.
1
No problem for Trump if the debt load he’s added to the country sinks it. He’s very experienced with that!! He’ll do what he always does! He’ll declare bankruptcy!! He’s done it, what, 4-6 times!! Easy Peezey!!
6
So let me see if I have this straight...when Obama was president you reported that his policies revived the economy...now with Trump credit goes to Congress and the Fed. By Congress, it has to be when the republicans were in charge...since the Dems have been part of ZERO legislation to do anything for the economy.
2
Thanks for the accurate reporting and headline. Not going to cancel my subscription if you keep it up.
2
While there are countless factors that cause recessions, the most common cause is inflation combined with business decisions unsuited for an inflationary economy. The Fed tries to control inflation. And it has been helped by the fact that this economy has been resilient to inflation. Folks who don’t include inflation in their analysis are probably missing the boat
Despite excellent conditions Republican led economies mostly end in disaster in modern times. Maybe the trickle down ideology doesn't work over the long haul? Why does it keep happening?
117
@Bosox rule It keeps happening because people feel some immediate effect of the theory-reduction in taxes-and care little about the deficit, unless it becomes a campaign theme.
15
@Bosox rule Nothing happens for the middle class on down because the economic myths that the GOP constantly regurgitate at times of tax cuts or perks for the top tier (trickle-down, rising tide lifts all boats etc.) have been debunked again and again. It does not stop them from using them. Same applies to the recent tax cut – no new production in the US, just corporate buy-backs paid for by the péons.
44
@Bosox rule That's easy to answer. It keeps happening because it enriches the oligarchs who own Trump and bought America.
30
The economic boom described in this article has been in large measure a handout to the rich. I look forward to a Democrtic Congress and administration which will reverse the paltry economic stimulation for the middle clsss and the poor and raise the taxes on the rich. The record shows that the extra monies into the pockets of the rich have not dribbled down to the middle class and the poor.
255
Unless Fred Trump arises from the dead and bails out his son yet again no way Trump will not own the inevitable financial downturn. He likes to have his name on things and it seems to me there will be ample opportunities as we deal with the TRUMP SLUMP and TRUMP TRILLION $ deficit.
6
I will never trust Trump. Even since I met him at Mar-a-Lago during a private event and he never stopped talking about himself, I saw the unbridled narcissism infect this man.
He has some kind of mental illness that has control of his ego. I don't say this lightly since he's the leader of the free world and has both so much power, yet so much responsibility.
He will always put himself and his family first.
9
@Mickey McMahon
One doesn't need to meet him to see this.
He couldn't even tweet about shooting victims without bragging (lying?) about how much people love and respect him.
It is highly likely that no matter who is elected, they will face a recession.
And if course if it is a Democrat Trump and his followers will boast and giggle and demean... everyone else.
10
Are we in for a massive decline?
Everything the occupant of the White House touches turns to gold. No wonder the nation, as promised, is tired of winning.
1
Trump's economic theories explained by Trump:
"People said I want to go and buy debt and default on debt, and I mean, these people are crazy. This is the United States government," Trump told CNN's Chris Cuomo on "New Day." "First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK?"
"I'm the king of debt. I'm great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me," Trump told CBS during the 2016 campaign. "I've made a fortune by using debt, and if things don't work out I renegotiate the debt. I mean, that's a smart thing, not a stupid thing." When things go bad, "you go back and you say, hey guess what, the economy just crashed. I'm going to give you back half," Trump told CBS in that same 2016 interview.
5
@Don Nothing like declaring massive debt for a real estate project and then paying the contractors back pennies on the dollar. That will not work well on a national scale. Something his devote followers just cannot grasp.
1
Thanks, President Obama. I miss you more each day.
Seriously.
15
Please implore your fellow Kansans to not reelect this sham of a president.
2
And amazingly, in every report related to the economy, growth is still discussed as normative and a measurement of economic health and national well-being.
While in other news, growth based market economies are ineluctably correlated with the demise of our planet through their requirement of ever increasing material throughput.
I'd love to see the NYT openly connect these dots now and then - it's a wee bit late in the game not to be.
3
It's pointless to focus on "growth" in isolate, as though we as a society were concerned with nothing else.
For starters, "growth" can be fueled—as Trump has done—by reckless gutting of environmental laws (that endanger the very existence of our planet), pillaging the future treasury (through massive increases in national debt, absurd tax breaks for the rich, and other corporate give-aways), dangerous decline in regulatory enforcement, ridiculous military spending, and other gimmicks that spike "growth" number now. To even talk about "growth" without recognizing the algorithmic equation that should underpin the conversation is meaningless.
Beyond that, the burning question even when genuine "growth" is concerned is whether it is reaching the 99%, lifting the poor, funding our schools, social services, infrastructure, and other quality-of-life issues: who cares if we have "growth" that just buys more jets and islands for the 1%?
I'm not necessarily defending the Obama "growth" but suggesting that we stop the simplistic (and fatiguingly partisan) obsessing over one variable (absolute growth), and instead start concerning ourselves with the an algorithmic approach that focuses on overall social good and the future of our planet—not just the latest gorging which yields figures that look good on campaign posters but make future generations pay severely for it. (And yes, by the proper measures, Trump is certainly worse than Obama, even if the latter left plenty to be desired.)
5
Contrast how McConnell, Ryan and Republicans acted in 2016 - when the economy was very good to how they fought Obama in every turn in 2008, When the economy was crashing around us.
Then deficits ‘mattered’, now with a massive tax cut for the wealthy that will NOT pay for itself, deficits that reaching astronomical heights are fine. And these deficits didn’t pay for infrastructure, for better schools, better health care - anything that would our country and it’s citizens stronger. Just helped make the wealthy, wealthier.
Ryan is gone from Congress. Hopefully the good citizens of Kentucky will get rid of Mitch McConnell in 2020.
12
@Maxi Unfortunately, we can't expect the Kentuckians to do what is best for themselves or the rest of the country. Like the rest of the rural South, they will continue to hobble themselves in all likelihood.
5
Before President Trump took office we were assured by many on the left including this newspaper that Trump would destroy the economy. Former President Obama assured us the 2% GDP was the new normal. Why would anyone but a partisan believe anything the left says about President Trump?
3
The interesting thing about history is one learns that actions percolate causing a cause and effect . I am not confident to say he isn’t destroying the economy or even making it the best one ever. I do know that my stockbroker has moved me into cash and fixed income . My income is down and my taxes are up.
5
My back of the envelope calculation is that each American taxpayer now has about $20000 more in their share of national debt due to these policies. Our politicians are lemmings rushing for the cliff.
6
Standard M.O. for the current occupant. Make himself out to be the 'victim' and, by extension, all of his base is the victim as well. Nothing unites people like a common enemy and pointing out (however falsely) that the 'system' is against them, he foments hate among the base against the 'others'. Of course, most of those others have darker skin and many (most?) are from other countries, even when they aren't ("sent them back").
7
It should concern everyone that Trump, a man with a string of bankruptcies, is telling the fed how to run monetary policy. Trump's trade war has resulted in secular changes that will not be reversed. The most prominent loss is to America's farmers whose soybean crop has been replaced by farms in Brazil and Russia. Given the infrastructure investment China made to secure these suppliers, there's no reason to go back to Iowa.
Another secular change is impacting Boeing. China has ratcheted forward its development of their home grown C919 airplane to permanently replace Boeing.
Had Trump researched his ill-advised gambit before starting the trade war, he could have anticipated China's moves and thwarted them. But Trump relies upon gut feel, not research or logic.
Every major corporation would have fired such an inept CEO as Trump but we're stuck with an archaic, paper ballot, 4 year hiring system that cannot respond fast enough to a disaster like Trump. If the oligarchs can hack the ballot box, we may be stuck with this incompetent madman till our complete demise.
12
Giving a president credit for the economy, good or bad is ridiculous. If that is true then we are riding the wave of the Obama recovery. Of course, how something as complex as the American economy functions is multifactorial. What this article does point out is the lie that republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility. Clearly, they are only fiscally responsible when a democrat is president and will become so again. And when people like me point out their hypocrisy reminding them of their behavior under Trump, they’ll deny it. And when you show them videos of their words and actions, they’ll explain how it is different now. In truth, since the 1980s, deficit reduction has only been carried out by Democrats usually after inheriting catastrophic economies from Republicans. In absolute dollars, Obama was probably the greatest deficit cutting president in history. Does he deserve credit for that? Probably not but he at least managed the economy responsibly something the republicans are clearly incapable of. Yes, the economy is good now, follow the trends that existed over the last several years, years preceding Trump. But now, under Trump and the Republicans, when the next financial crisis hits we’ll have few tools to deal with it.
8
Who knew that a 7 time bankrupt, real estate mogul helped along by daddy, knew nothing about international finance? I thought trade wars were "easy" to win. Turns out trumps "daddy" is Fed policy, deficit spending and tax cuts. Does this mean trumps answer will be bankrupting America, just like his businesses?
11
@robertb
You raise good points. And the question becomes, when the economy really gets into trouble, what tools do we have left? We've already slashed taxes and kept interest rates low. What do we do? Do we slash taxes again to make the debt even more onerous? Will the Federal Reserve go to negative interest rates?
1
As we have learned the hard way, Donald Trump has an irresistible compulsion to play the unfortunate victim in every arena – including the national economy.
Mr. Trump claims to be a winner, but he is just a whiner.
Increasing numbers of Americans (as well as people around the globe) are tuning this man out.
4
Let's be clear. Trump has now put the farms out of business. He has bankrupted himself 6 times. He and his family live in vast luxury on our tax dime while families struggle. People get sick and lose their savings and homes to medical bills. He spends a million and a half a weekend at HIS OWN GOLF CLUBS, charging the taxpayer. His daughter and husband made 82 million as public servants. He visits victims of gun slaughter, bars the free press and makes us pay for a campaign video as he stiffs El Paso for a recent campaign hate fest. He entertains Ichan and Koch schemes slashing regulations and taxes for the uber wealthy. He operates on a vendetta system and then the Fed 'helps' him. What is this? A dictatorship/oligarchy? Yes. It is. Why you put Obama's name in print here after he repaired the Cheney/Bush debacle is beyond me.
8
Presidents have always taken credit for economic growth. And such growth has always been caused by multiple factors, most of which are out of the President’s control. The pundits let this go because it is transparent politics and is obviously nonsense. The Times’ lead story is poking a hole in Trump’s silliness that is the same sort of silliness that we have always let slide.
So much to attack about Trump. Front page pettiness serves no constructive purpose.
Gee, you think you should maybe stop bellowing about how great Trump’s done with the economy, then?
1
President Obama gave Trump plenty of help as well. Whoever follows Trump will likely inherent a global recession exacerbated by Trump's trade wars and record setting deficits,
9
And, because of the deficits and tax cuts, we will not have the tools needed to cushion the fall during a future recession.
3
@TDD
Exactly correct. We've squandered the means to pull us out of real trouble in order to overstimulate the economy for Mr. Trump so things would look good for his reelection, all with the approval of the GOP.
I hope the economy dips before the election, not because I want the nation to suffer, but to avoid an economic calamity in Mr. Trump's second term when we'll have him for what will seem like long, possibly painful, years to the next election in 2024.
1
The idea that everything is normal seems to be the tone of every story here. As long as the economy is good for business, everything is fine. Personally, I don't buy that.
“If the state becomes a tool for serving private interests and not public interests, serving individuals and not following the collective welfare of society, then, of course, you’ll have terrible fiscal policy and unsustainable debt problems. Stable macroeconomic policy is a public good. But if the state becomes clientelized then it’s not about providing public goods, it’s about providing private goods[…]
“Clientelism is always rational, it’s just not collectively rational for a society.”
Why nations fail | James Robinson | TEDxAcademy
3
trump isn’t doing it the republican way:
Reagan: Took the deficit from 70 billion to 175 billion.
HW Bush: Took the 175 billion and turned it into 300 billion.
W Bush. Inherited a balanced budget! Left a 1.2 trillion dollar deficit.
trump. Took over with a 600 billion dollar deficit
and it’s now a trillion a year as far as the eye can see.
Remember when that was the exact warning from conservatives?
9
@Paul’52 sorry! Should have read trump IS doing it the republican way!
2
@Paul’52: Well, you might say he is doing it exactly the Republican way: to talk about deficits as if they were a problem, but to engage consistently in massive deficit spending. (Only their spending isn't as useful to the general public.)
4
‘Gripes.’ That could be the pejorative nickname we’ve been looking for. Since nicknames are a thing, thanks to Gripes Trump.
‘Grumbles’ works, too. ‘Grumbles Trump.’ That might be better. More poetic.
2
The Fed cutting rates at a time this late into the business cycle demonstrated to me that a recession is imminent (will start this year or next). Stock valuations have been this high only two other times in our history, 2000 and 1929, in other words, stock are extremely over-valued vs their actual profits and earnings.
Additionally, look at fed actions historically: nearly every other recession was preceded by the fed starting to cut rates (after raising them) late in business cycles, which is exactly what is unfolding now.
Moreover, stock prices are pumped up artificially by as much as 20% thanks to stock buy backs bought on cheap, easy to access debt which they've become addicted to, which won't be sustainable in a recession.
This will not end well.
8
@Joe Arena
I agree. I keep seeing a lot of things that look just like the lead-up to the Great Recession.
I was planning on finding a job closer to where I live and going back to school, but I've put off those plans because I can't afford to be broadsided with another recession when I'm the newest employee at a company and my extra funds are going towards school.
I'm going to need my seniority and savings when/if the layoffs come.
I'll see where we are this time next year. But I'm not doing anything risky right now.
1
One major factor that was not discussed is the enormous debt level of households, business and students. We are in a debt driven economy, fueled by the same lending practices that caused the Great Recession. We are whistling through the graveyard, once the default dominos start falling, this is not going to end well.
10
@Bruce Pippin
The "enormous debt level of households" (including student debt) is a myth.
We have statistics on "Household Debt Service as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income" going back to 1980. For the last five quarters, Q1 2018 to Q1 2019, it has ranged from 9.85% to 9.91%. From 1980 to 2013 it was never below 10%. From Q2 1995 to Q3 2010 it was never below 11%. From Q4 2000 to Q3 2009 it was always above 12%.
Because there have been some shifts in household finance, for example from auto loans to auto leases, it is useful to look at "Financial Obligations as a Percentage of Personal Disposable Income". In addition to debt service financial obligations include rent payments on tenant occupied property, auto lease payments, homeowner's insurance premiums, and property tax payments. For the last five quarters it has been in the range or 15.32 to 15.38%. From Q4 1981 to Q4 2011 and from it was always higher than that, peaking at 18.13% at the start of the Great Recession in Q4 2007.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm
The cause of the Panic of 2008 were the practices of the investment banking sector, which was created in the 1930s by the Glass-Steagall Act. The risky part of banking was split of into these institutions that were basically unregulated. They most part they either were acquired by or converted into regulated bank holding companies.
1
Let's be clear, no one has "given" President Trump anything. He's had to fight for every one of his initiatives and it's paying off. Thanks to Obama for leaving such untapped opportunity on the table for Trump to work with.
4
@Kurt Pickard
Let's be clearer. The article says Trump was granted gifts, and he fought for nothing
25
@Kurt Pickard
Untapped opportunity?
There is a reason why we don't burn through our options when things are good just for a little more short-term gain... rainy days always come.
2
Which “initiatives?”
Infrastructure? Nah, nothing.
USMCA? Sitting at Senate, has been for over a year. Nothing.
Coal and steel jobs back? Not really.
Car jobs? Nope, they’ve dropped. Manufacturing? Slightly better.
China deal? Nope. Replace TPP? Nope.
He’s got two things economic: tax cuts, mostly for zillionaires who esse tially kept the loot, and deregulation that shoves the bills into the future.
Which initiatives? Don’t maunder about “confidence;” tell me what, exactly, he’s done.
4
Trump has not and will not use careful thought and analysis before making decisions. He is a bungler, so any good coming from these Fed choices can only rest with Powell or an intimidated Powell. In either case, a win for Trump at this point will not last long. He always shoots himself in the foot. Today it is trade wars but only because they attract such world wide attention. And Trump is always starved of attention. He usually uses aggression to get his way because he has found that he gets more attention that way. Fear is a great motivator and Trump apparently elicits fear from those who work for him through implied threats of job loss. At any rate, his latest trade decisions against China may be the foot- shooting I was referring to above.
14
As the Democrats keep stumbling over each other, Trump!s victory in 2020 looks more and more like a certainty.
4
@George Remember when the pundits claimed there would be a Hillary Clinton victory?
3
Hey Mr. Trump where's the middle class tax cut you promised?
You gave your corporate donors theirs so they can dictate their wishes to the Republicans in Congress. Where's ours?
12
@JJS
Middle class tax cut was part of the last tax cut. It was just to corporate America.
4
Perhaps the biggest help that Trump had was stepping into an already great economy created under 8 years of Obama...
25
I figure he’s gonna want to get the same $400 mil he got from his daddy, from Obama. Maybe that’s why all the bellowing.
3
Congress? Congress did something, helped with something; cmon you've gotta be kidding. Congress has done nothing and cares about nothing but the next election.
11
It doesn't matter what Powell's Fed does, its their independence that Trump can't abide. Any senior official not at as his beck and call is an enemy who must be replaced by a toady.
28
What I don't understand is why everyone seems to universally assume the economy IS strong.
If you're going by GDP or looking at the surface level unemployment numbers, it may appear strong.
But what about the fact that US life expectancy is going DOWN? What about the fact that the biggest increases in employment have come from part-time or contracted work with few benefits and almost no job security? What about the fact that 40% of Americans can't put together $400 in an emergency? Or that almost 50% of Americans believe their job shouldn't exist?!?
This should be even more shocking when you combine this with the fact that stocks are at an all-time high.
What 's obvious is that the current measures of economic strength are misleading and only serve to obscure to true state of our nation.
The purpose of having an economy is to serve the people/citizens, not to serve corporate profits.
37
@Tommy G the economy is strong. Look at the restaurant industry right now. It is exploding, people are going out to eat. That is one way to look at it. If the economy was terrible, restaurants would not being doing this well.
2
America...a nation of restaurants, mostly bad.
Just makes the heart swell with pride that we have so many busboys, don’t it?
5
@Tim
Source?
Obama, as is the bias of Democrats, imposed and anti-growth tax and regulatory regime that cost jobs and probably 1% on the growth rate. Much to the surprise of many economists, Trump has been right on the amount of stimulus the economy could take without inflation. That said, his combination of foreign policy and trade policies are disastrous and unlike the Obama era changes which could be reversed, it is not clear the Trump has not done permanent damage. His gross, bullying style may make his base happy but his failure to sign TPP, go to economic war with the Chinese, Europe, Canada, and Latam has not only dislodged alliances but has placed us at risk of toppling the counter balance to the Chinese by driving S Korea, China and even a fearful Taiwan into Chinese hands.
19
@Chris: Compliance with regulation has been the largest source of quality jobs since the EPA was established.
17
@Steve Bolger
Were you in New York in the 60's? Do you remember the "Killer Smog"? You must not, so google it. 168 people had died because of the smog. It led the way for the clean air act. It's also been nice to have clean air to breathe and clean water to drink since then.
People used to die from smog. How many lives lost and asthma, bronchitis, and other environmentally caused ailments is worth the jobs environmental regulation supposedly (you give no evidence at all that it does) takes away?
This is the biggest fallacy pushed by the GOP, that environmental protections that impact the health of Americans is somehow taking away jobs. It is not.
23
Yeah, because I ama only dropped the unemployment rate by six percent. That hardly equals Trump’s dropping it by...hey, wait a minute!
11
Carefully examine the four most potent actions Trump has taken for our economy:
first, the immense tax cut,
second, prodding the Fed to keep federal funds rate low, third getting out of multilateral trade agreements and substituting one-nation to one-nation negotiations,
and fourth starting a powerful tariff war with the world's second largest economy, China.
Many of his actions have had a stimulative effect, but short term, increasing corporate profits and keeping the economy humming. But all of his actions will have dangerous and costly long term effects. He is the short-term, immediate-gratification infant, who does not think too far ahead.
The tax cut which has expanded our deficit to new heights imposes an increased tax burden that future Americans will have to pay. This money could have been used to help Americans rather than to largely pay off bondholders, many if not most of whom are foreigners. And now we can no longer use a tax cut.
Regarding the federal funds rate, the higher we keep it the more its stimulative effect when the economy slows down or slips into recession. Prodding it lower weakens this powerful weapon.
Breaking multilateral agreements loses allies. Nations no longer rely on our promises. New trade patterns are established which exclude Americans.
And the Chinese Tariff war--which Trump in his ignorance assured us would be easy to win---is a total disaster which, unlike some of the preceding, has no immediate benefits. A total disaster.
17
@shimr
The tariff war not only has no immediate benefits, but it also likely has no long-term benefits. As you said, new trade patterns are being established which exclude Americans. In addition, the Chinese know that Trump won't be around forever and whoever the next president is, whether they're Democrat or Republican, they likely will not carry on his policies. Those policies are not only detrimental to everyone's pocketbook (because we get so, so many things from China, more than we even realize) but detrimental to entire industries here in the US (such as the farming industry, who we are having to bail out). Eventually our elected officials are going to be quite hesitant to keep raising our debt to pay for the effects of these policies, and the money will dry up.
3
"Growth" at an enormous cost to the bottom half of income earners is not something about which to brag. When EVERYBODY prospers and gains financial security, I will cheer this economy. That incredible "tax reform" transfer of wealth to the filthy rich, from the working class, did nothing but boost stock prices which also went right into already wealthy pockets, not average wage earners. I don't care what anybody says, the stock market does not reflect the true economy for the entire population. NYT, like the government, need to redefine wealth classes, where those who earn less than $25,000/year are regarded as "poor," and unaffected by this "good" economy.
22
Obama put the economy on a sustainable growth course in spite of GOP attempts to sabotage his policies. Had Trump done nothing we and the global economic would be better off.
17
Trump ran on reducing our balance of trade deficit. Our trade deficit is growing not shrinking.
Trump's tax cuts were supposed to get growth near 4 percent and be revenue neutral. We have almost got to 3% last year and will be close to 2% this year. Tax revenue has cratered.
Not only have we had massive stimulus during a period of low unemployment, we have given away more of our public sector to private contractors, reduced our public land holdings and reduced regulation which creates more liability for the public. In other words the American public is getting less and paying more for an economy that looks a lot like the economy under President Obama.
Under President Obama we got more public land, less liability, 10 million more people with health insurance and a larger better functioning public sector.
The fact that Americans are willing to get up and go to work. Work very hard for low paying jobs is not a sign of a healthy economy aided by good public policy. The big picture and the bond market is telegraphing a bleak future. I hope we avoid it.
23
Trump should think himself lucky that the Fed have at least some levers to pull now the economy is starting to falter. Instead, he'll blame everyone else for the economic problems he's created with his trade war. He's complaining about the Fed, when it was he who fired dovish Janet Yellen because she was associated with Obama (and let's not forget he complained she wasn't raising rates fast enough when Obama was president).
However we're now in an age of goldfish memories and zero accountability. No one seems to care what you said last month provided you said something newsworthy yesterday.
6
@Tom Miller: Public debt doesn't matter anymore because it is so easy to monetize with quantitative easing.
It's not inconceivable that at some point the Fed may purchase corporate bonds and equities to "jack" the economy. This amid Trump's insistence on immediate economic gratification. Meantime, on the fiscal side I look for zero federal spending restraint and further tax cuts--providing massive stimulus. All this assumes four more years of Trump, which I regard as likely. Debt levels--and not just federal debt levels--will continue to rise amid elevated levels of "animal spirits." The associated debt burden will be especially onerous amid low inflation.
1
@Robert F. Buchanan: The Fed will buy only public debt, because that makes servicing it only a book entry for the Treasury Department.
Republicans give Trump help with the economy, the exact opposite of what they did during Obama’s presidency. They did everything they could to cripple his efforts. Another example of their policy of “party over country.”
25
Just remember that Obama did the hard, sustainable things to save the economy and launch the recover. Trump did the easy temporary things to ride it a little further.
13
@JT Obama spent like a drunken sailor to the tune of nearly $1 trillion. A lot of that money went to duds like Solyndra ($200 million) which went bankrupt within a year. A lot of the money also went to propping up jobs for teachers and public service workers, while the "shovel ready jobs" that Obama promise never materialized. That's not "the hard, sustainable things to save the economy and launch a recovery". It's bribery to keep your supporters employed at taxpayer expense.
@paul Hmm. And you would have us believe that Trump is not spending like a drunken sailor and the deficit is stable?
And, if I recall correctly, Trump would spend trillions of dollars on infrastructure, you know, shovel ready jobs.
Trump has bribed the farmers he devastated with his trade war to the tune of 20 plus billion dollars which is about the same dud of Solyndra, but a little bit more.
4
@paul
And yet the economy grew at a sustainable rate that carried through well into the next presidency. Funny, that.
And what is the debt at now, pray tell? Obama at least had the excuse of the Great Recession. Now we are in a good economy, when traditionally we pay down the debt we accrued in times of need and/or save for the next downturn, and yet the debt keeps increasing.
What are we going to do when the next downturn happens?
1
Republicans will always pursue policies that favor the wealthiest and penalize the middle-class. It has been their historical mission to undo the middle-class, a group they cannot control.
The volatility that has been introduced to the markets is creating havoc with middle class families trying to save for a secure retirement.
Was it really worth it - your $1500 tax cut?
20
If you took the stock market, which is not the real economy, but is something that's fairly easy gauge because it reacts in real time and is also something Trump claims to care about; it's definitely 5 to 10 percent lower over the past year or so due to the trade war stuff. And by "stuff" I'm throwing the uncertainty that Trump's erratic behavior creates.
So that would probably over a trillion dollars flushed down the toilet by Trump.
10
In the modern economic history of the world, we have had only a few Hegemons. In all those cases, there has been a peak and a replacement by a subsequent hegemon. We are more like Britain in that we used economics as a step up to power. We cannot beat China or the other Asian economies because they have a vast population to be added to their economy, like our early 20th century growth. We stole tech from Europe and thrived, similar story about China. There is likely a structural problem with persistent growth based on consumption: Say's law of infinite demand is wrong at the edges of the curve, the Turkey dinner effect. People stop being hungry after a bountiful turkey dinner, prefering a nap in front of the Football game. This structural reality is starting, and stimulating meager growth with tricks won't fix it (so we increase demand for medical care, more colonoscopies! yay). We just weathered a big recession, no need to stimulate another one for one man's ego.
6
When the going gets tough with the trade war, remember that China owns all the U.S. debt paper. Look at what has happened to countries in Asia and Africa that have borrowed from China and not been able to pay back. Scared yet?
10
@Maureen Steffek
That's not true, China only owns about 5% of the US debt and Japan owns about the same amount. It's also unlikely they would sell it all or even most of it because their currency would crater if they did, which would lead to a surge of money leaving their country.
2
@Keith
I hope you're right, but they're already artificially lowering the worth of their currency, so is that really going to hold them back?
1
Painful as it might be, this country badly needs a recession over the next 15 months.
Unless DJT can be blamed for the economy, his chances of winning are very good. For the masses the main issue is economic security.
DJT MAY lead the economy into that with his trade war montra & other policies (which, for example, might be cutting into tourism from abroad).
But we---yes, you and I---can try to slow the economy. If consumers would simply cut their "discretionary" spending, we could have a huge impact in slowing the economy.
Sure, in the short-run it would be painful. But the long-term gain (as in saving our nation!!) is worth it.
Things we---you and I---can do:
Postpone that trip to Disney World or whatever domestic destination you had in mind.
Delay replacing that automobile.
Eat at restaurants less often.
Give your children (or other loved ones) gifts in the form of an 18-month Certificate of Deposit or other instrument that cannot be spent near term.
Delay that family reunion: September 2020 or 2021 is said to be very beautiful in VT and NH, even more than this year.
That smartphone's been working just fine for the last 18 months; it will keep working fine for the next 15.
Planning a bathroom or kitchen renovation? Postpone doing it.
That roof? It's been there for 23 years; One more, OK?
Caveat Emptor if we (collectively) purchase four more years of these Repugnacrats.
Vote them ALL out!
17
@Peter Stix
Wishing, and even forcing a downturn in the economy because the current President is responsible for the current upturn?
This is how desperate, and how anti-American Democrats have become folks.
1
@NYCSurgical - Nope. The President is responsible for damaged relationships with our allies, environmental degradation, an increase in hate crimes, the loss of civil liberties.
8
@NYCSurgical
"because the current President is responsible for the current upturn"
No one said that.
I don't agree with Peter's statement, for the same reasons you don't, but that's no excuse to put words in someone's mouth.
That said, though I disagree with the tactic (as do you, obviously), Peter's heart is in the right place. The economy is being artificially held up, which makes Trump look good, and may carry him through 2020, but that will eventually collapse and when it does it will be very, very ugly. A little slowdown now to get us back on the right track might be the lesser of two evils.
1
Too funny!
The solid facts are this. Someone had to take on China’s predatory trade practices. Trump has. And the Trump economy is so strong that even with a trade war our economy and markets are still doing quite well.
No democrat, past, present or future could have successfully done what Trump is doing. It’s why the American public will re elect Trump
3
But Trump hasn't actually done anything yet has he! He has confronted China but he hasn't successfully negotiated an agreement, nor has he been able to force China to make changes. Who wins this trade dispute is still very much an open question. I suspect in the end Trump will not have any more success then the Democrats you have critized.
16
@David
There may never be an agreement but at least we won't be supporting the very country that is ripping off our tech and bullying our allies with huge amounts of trade if the trade war keeps going as it has been and will instead be supporting other countries which are much friendlier to us and our allies.
1
Remember when you guys screamed about budget deficits? We do.
5
I'm tired of the polite fiction that America has a top-down economy. The idea that tax breaks for wealthy individuals and huge corporations "create jobs" may well be the propaganda, but the reality is that the consumer is where the economy creates jobs.
None of the business people who are praising Trump and the RNC for their tax breaks and basking in the glow of being considered a "job creator" would actually hire a single person until the current staff cannot satisfy the demand of the customer base.
As "Labor Day" approaches and our Republican elected officials polish their speeches praising the captains of industry, let us remember that: "a business only exists in the conception of a customer." By and large, the customers are those in the middle and lower income brackets, not those at the top of the income distribution.
It is past time to actually thank the people who make the economy run rather than praising the wealthy takers who want to be treated like royalty.
11
This same economy, which at times grew faster under Obama, was never "strong" for this paper. It was always muddied by "stagnant wages" and "dead-end jobs". This paper has made it clear, it is much more interested in being seen as neutral between the forces of blindly lying in order to protect Republican "values" and the truth. This is how history will see it, as much as the writers here will convince themselves otherwise.
17
If they had bent over backwards to help Obama the way they have helped Trump the nation would have been debt-free long ago and we would have so much money we would be "sick of it." Why they have done so much for this unqualified and entitled clown is beyond me.
32
@Bob
Obama literally had zero percent interest rates for basically his entire term. All congress did for Trump was pass a tax cut which they probably would have done for Obama had he been interested in it.
1
@Bob
Caving in to the school yard bully?
1
China is likening this to the Long March. That’s where the Communist Party marched 10,000 km with thousands killed to evade destruction.
So China is preparing its citizens for a drawn out dispute where they will ensure great sacrifice. They propaganda machine has citizens totally united.
In contrast, the Dems snipe at Trump for every little thing even though he is broadly correct in fighting for our intellectual property and fair trade terms. No other President has lifted a finger for the middle class or Rust Belt against China. Not a finger over decades.
5
@Jay Wong - Trump products are made in China and he has no idea of what intellectual property even consists of. Time to get a clue.
1
i remember how it was possible to avoid the idiotic games Wall Street plays by making supplemental earnings from reasonable interest rates. Those of us who prefer not gambling on the Wall Street bandits and our children who will be faced with monster budget deficits are the ones who are funding this idiotic monetary policy...until it crashes. There is a limit and an end point coming.
Have fun til then.
4
That crooked fool has no idea what he’s doing anyway. It’s not like he has a grand vision of how to run the economy or the country. He’s just a target for flattery by “advisors” with vested interests.
Impeach Now!
9
of course he had help but it was his strategy and priorities QED
4
trump is playing with fire when he naively and recklessly blacklists and imposes tariffs willy nilly. He is blind to the plain fact that pulling out of the TPP isolated the US and gave China an open field to play in. Any decline in China GDP due to trump ill-conceived shenanigans, they'll more than make up elsewhere. Playing "tough guy" reckless trading games like this with america’s largest debtor nation with considerable global financial clout is perilous stuff. Already Chinese investment in the US has plummeted by nearly 90 percent since trump took office (notice how FOX news ignores these things). As these developments mount a consequential disastrous effect on the economy at some point is imminent and will be well beyond the grasp of the stable genius to manage let alone control.
12
I recognize Trump's behavior. I know people like this. There's a technique for surviving adversity that he uses. 1, Criticize what's being done, and perhaps predict its failure, even when what's being done is in agreement with your policies. At least, classify it as not enough.
2, When the outcome is failure, you make a big deal about how you were right. EG, Gee, I never saw that coming, what a surprise.
3, If the outcome is successful, you can point to your stance as being correct, and remain critical, even though there was a success. EG, Had more been done as you recommended, the outcome would have been even better.
There's no way to lose with this strategy. It makes it look like everything and everyone else is holding you back.
7
@Al Pastor
"There's no way to lose with this strategy. It makes it look like everything and everyone else is holding you back".
Only to the very uninformed and/or obtuse.
1
Well, Al Pastor, I'm a carne asada guy myself, but for the most part, I agree with you. But also, when one entire party is openly wishing, hoping and praying that the country fails so they can blame Trump,
I can see him hedging his bets. Now the latest thing is White Supremacy, and anyone that supports him is a White Supremist. In the end, I think that will work against the Democrats. Since a majority of business owners are Republican (I think, I'm just judging by the people I've worked for), constantly harping that Republicans are White Power fans, is already starting to irritate people that are NOT biased.
@BorisRoberts
We are not wishing the country to fail in order to blame Trump. We are blaming Trump for the tariffs and the tax cuts for the uber wealthy. We are blaming Trump for pulling out of TPP. We are We are blaming Trump for the many things he has done to hurt us and our democracy. The economy is despite Trump, not because of Trump.
And in regard to racism and white supremacy, Trump is a racist and was before he was installed by Russia in the white house. Trump encourages white supremacy, whether he is on or not. His supporters who do not openly and loudly condemn racism and continue to support Trump are also responsible.
5
Trump is famous for his habit of paying himself now and filing bankruptcy later. That is what he is doing with this country. The day will come (after he is long gone) when the bill will come due.
21
When labor unions were healthy, it was necessary at times to go on strike. This was not enjoyable and it caused financial stress. But, if you weren't willing to sacrifice in the short term, you would never get better benefits and you wouldn't be respected. For the last 40 years, the United States has allowed multinational businesses and foreign governments to take advantage of us. We lost most of the steel industry, and supply chains for automobiles as well as textiles and electronics. We can't afford to lose anymore. Yes, reorganizing the rules for international trade will cause short term disruptions of the economy but in the long term it will benefit the American people. That is who the United States government is supposed to represent American citizens. People who cry about the disruption are self serving and greedy. Thousand of Americans have sacrificed their lives and health fighting wars to protect us. Now people are complaining that a shirt or an avocado will cost more. Every country in the world is more interested in trading with the USA than we are in trading with them. China can be replaced. Africans can sew our clothing and would love to get the jobs. Brazilians would love to assemble I-Phones. We can make steel in America.
8
Does it really matter what the President does to run the country? No matter how successful the USA has become, Trump will be always be berated by these commenters.
I wonder how that might change during his second term. Probably not much.
4
@DAB republicans throw the party and the democrats end up paying the bill. If trump has a second term and a republican controlled house, history tells us we will be in a recession (and that's if we're lucky.)
11
@DAB
What would his investors have said right before he want bankrupt for his third time? And you would be saying, "those pesky commenters"?. Obama came into a real crisis, not of his making, and listened to the adults in the room, and many Republican adults, and we had 8 years of growth. Trump has been incredibly lucky to have this rebound from the Obama years. Reagan was lucky to have the rebound that Carter set up. It is not a genius at work it is just shear luck. So you like the idea of destroying the work order that kept peace and prosperity in the world since 195s? A tax break for the oligarchs (Trump's people) that is not helping much because the tax break should have been for the middle class? And a break from the rule of law that may end up as a constitutional crisis? Are you rich?
10
@DAB
If the USA has become so successful, why all the Presidential badgering and whining about the need for a rate cut, and why are we running these HUGE deficits......you know, the deficits that Republicans were telling us were an existential threat to the country a few short years ago, when there was a Democrat in the WH?
12
Given Trump's reckless combative style of functioning even normal looking things are bound to turn messy. Thus the post-2008 economy well on revival path reinforced by a benign supportive environment has been rendered vulnerable to unforeseen crisis due to Trump's futile trade wars.
9
It took George W Bush 8 years to wreck a growing economy. Trump is on track to do it in under 4 years. It will take a Democratic administration to fix the fiscal damage, to say nothing about the moral and psychic damage, Trump has inflicted on the country.
62
@Catalina
It only took Bush 43 a couple of months to wreck a growing economy. The first recession of his presidency started in March 2001. It ended in November, but that was due to the September 11 attacks which triggered enormous spending.
7
@Catalina
After Bush cut taxes in 2001, deficits deficits started to fall in 2004, when they went from 415 billion, to 318 billion in 2005, 248 billion in 2006, and 161 billion in 2007.
Now I guess youre referring to the economic crisis of 2008. Exactly what Bush policy, directive, or law of bushes caused that crisis?
As for Trump, the economy is doing great as a direct result of his policies.
How exactly is he on track to "wreck the economy"?
1
Dude, the crash started in 2006, not 2008, let alone not 2009, which is when Obama took office. And it’s disingenuous not to notice where deficits went under Bush and the Republicans.
12
Regarding the Fed’s interest rates being the lowest for this President: How do US interest rates compare against interest rates in Germany and Japan?
Regarding the fiscal stimulus boost: Didn’t the administration proposing it in the first place have something to do with the tax cut happening?
I am befuddled by this article.
8
All of Trump's "growth" has been charged to the federal debt and the environment.
78
I have trouble understanding why people think this is such a good economy. Is it because they’ve never lived in a really good economy such as the 1950s when one working class dad was able to buy the family a decent home, auto and have a life without being in debt up to their eyeballs? Today even two educated people, unless they are in the upper perhaps 10% struggle under a mountain of debt to keep a roof over their head, payoff college debt and maintain what passes for the new middle class lifestyle, perhaps a condo or townhouse if you’re lucky enough to be able to afford one in the few areas where there are high paying jobs. In the fifties there were no credit cards, education from a Junior College to Stanford was affordable and you could get in, ditto a nice home in California’s Bay Area with $500.00 down. You got a job that came with healthcare, at the time very reasonable, and probably a pension at the end of the day, mom stayed home, raised the kids and weekends during the summer may have been spent at your cabin in Sonoma or Tahoe or waterskiing behind the house in San Mateo and later Foster City. High schools boys aspired to having a car at 16 and most did perhaps supported by mowing the neighbors lawns, working after school at a soda shop before Big Mac showed up or delivering papers before class, now adults want those jobs; as far as the average families boat you couldn’t afford storage for it in the Bay Area. This is another fed induced bubble not a great economy.
70
@Ted
Please by mindful about the “great economy of the 1950s.” It wasn’t great for everyone including minorities living in segregation and women who were excluded from the workforce, among other things.
10
@Ted if you leave Portland you will find there's a good 40 other states that are affordable. Part of our problem is the wealth is centered on the coasts. We need to spread the companies out to other cities to balance out affordability in the US. For example you can live in New Mexico which is a gorgeous state for 1/10 of the cost of CA and the schools are affordable. People want to hang onto where they live and feel they have a right to stay there and that simply isn't how this country is set up. Globally most places have two family members working. That economy is gone and we need to stop looking back. Women want to be part of the economy so even culturally we've changes. We need to stop enrolling kids in schools they cannot afford and getting degrees where they will never pay off that debt. Yes I agree though that we must fix healthcare and education. If we get these two things under control it will do a ton for people, but we need to move out of cities that are inflated in cost and spread the wealth across all the states to lift the other states up and make the key cities more affordable (because when people leave that's what happens).
4
@Ted Your comment should be posted on every bus stop in America.
6
Not to mention that Trump has inherited a growth-trajectory from President Obama, who pulled the US economy back from the abyss of the Bush Recession, the worse recession since the Great Depression.
43
@Arthur Y Chan: The 2008 "crash" was a liquidity crisis caused by "derivatives" of greater magnitude than the global economic product becoming payable at the same time.
7
@Steve Bolger
Oh yes! Besides Lehman Bros, there were the likes of Citibank, Bear Stearns and American International Group (AIG). As an academic exercise, did Bill Clinton's repeal of Roosevelt's Glass-Steagall Act lay the foundation of the Great Bush Recession? If so, than Bill Clinton was the fire-starter.
3
@Steve Bolger
Could we just call it fraud like it was played by Wall Street and "ratings agencies"?
Thanks to Obama the national crime not even the hear-no-evil, see-no-evil monkeys of Wall Street and government could cover-up was left unpunished. Two exceptions, a minor Wall street flunky and billion dollar fines paid by company shareholders, not company executives.
4
President Trump may be right that with Fiat currencies Trade wars are fought not only with tarifs; but also by devaluation of currencies. When the Great Depression began in 1929 the world was on a gold standard. That is not the case today. President Trump and his economic advisors may understand that low interest rates not only make money cheap to loan they also make a currency less desirable and lower than the competition.
The current mantra of the Republicans is that H W Bush lost election to Clinton because interest rates were not lowered fast enough by the fed. Interest rates are going to go negative if necessary to win the election and keep dollar low.
1
The Taylor rule is based upon economic output and inflation, the authors assert that Trump has been given lax monetary policy because the Taylor rate is higher than fed funds. Why? Because the important part of those two — growth has been abnormally high and inflation abnormally low, which is exactly what we want in the economy. Clinton also had a prosperous time in office with a similar gap. The economy has had structural unemployment following the crash of 2008 that led to some abandoning the job market, total employment fell, home ownership fell. Only now are we really r3covering which is why we have grown without stoking inflation. The fed has raised rates and suddenly reversed and cut, that does indicate they went too far, but to try to portray Trump as having had an easy money policy is just incorrect. The end of quantitative easing and 8 rate rises is quite a tide to swim against and the job market and stock market have been superb anyway which is impressive. Do not get swept up by The Taylor Law, it is just one metric of hundreds that econ9mists use to look at growth versus fed rates etc., unlike natural laws from hard science such as physics, macroeconomics in particular is a much evolving and imprecise field.
4
The article said no such thing, but nice—and adjective-heavy—try, with the bit about Trump being the cause of the recovery, eight years after the recovery began.
5
None of this has helped the majority of Americans who have poor health insurance coverage, low wages, poor quality of life, the mentally ill, the physically disabled, the older population, the drug addicted, infrastructure, environmental devastation, housing. The economic gains are purely for the rich and the corporations that own America. Unfortunately Trump's base is growing: the cult of Trump. I sure hope he doesn't get a second term which may extend to a third.
34
It may help housing as mortgage rates are near record lows. But at least on the two coasts, real estate prices are too high.
5
@Ellen F. Dobson
Our company spent its tax break on increasing our sales force 33% and all are millennials (women & men), gave every employee a raise, and increased our company match 401k. Health insurance included. The jobs are out there. Only 9.6% of the US population don’t have Health Insurance, and half that number chose not to get coverage. I would say that’s pretty good. Overhauling healthcare for 4.8% of the population is political suicide.
4
@Ellen F. Dobson
And let's not forget the billions (or is it trillions) spent on wars in countries far, far away, when our infrastructure and population could have benefited so much from that money. Money that could also have been spent on some of Trump's priorities domestically.
10
Presidents Obama weather you like it or not and the Dems got this economy going after Bush and the big tax breaks he gave to the rich destroyed it in 2008. With Trumps treatment to our biggest trade partner China i hope they never want to do business with the USA again. We had eight years of peace with them and steady business. All these tariffs are doing is showing how the Republican Party is not a good party to do steady business with and their past 1932 tariff tax on the world failed as this one will.
10
@D.j.j.k. The economy got destroyed in 2008 because of the lax oversight of financial instruments that were nothing more than mirages in terms of having value. Mortgage lenders were allowed to ignore any and all warning signs that they were lending to people who did not have the means to take on the debt that they did. Then those same banks and other financial institutions packaged those deals up into investment vehicles that the sheep bought. Then the house of cards collapsed. Tax rates had little to do with it.
4
The current economy since Trump became president is a combination effect of the optimal coordination between the administration, the Fed and congress and despite the albatross of Muller investigation, a hostile environment created by biased press, pundits and all those who did not gracefully accept the outcome of the free and fair 2016 US presidential elections. Any American who has an opportunity to serve the country as president of the US whether the entire nation considers that you are truly deserving or not is the luckiest person on our planet for the duration of the presidency. Certainly Trump is lucky to have a growth-friendly climate but the climate did not fall out of the sky, he contributed to it too and deserves some credit and a chance to serve 4 years beyond 2020. We have heard the argument that trade war will limit the economy. Yes it might and so could other factors but so far so good even with the ups and downs. Taking over migrant problems from failed corrupt third world countries and engaging in new regime change wars without solving acute homelessness problem in urban America could also deliver a crushing blow to the fragile economy.
Trump has every right to grumble and air grievances as any other American. That is human nature. Grumbling brings change and closer to a situation you want to be in. Trump should not take his eye off spending cuts and paying down the national debt even though it is not of his making at least not most of it.
2
@Girish Kotwal - The press merely reported on what Trump said and did. If that turns out to be negative it's on Trump.
13
@Girish Kotwal
Trump has been and continues to transfer wealth from the middle class workers to rich in proportions never seen in this country before. He whines about the Fed who have given him accommodative monetary policy despite the robust economy.
Once the party ends they'll have little leeway to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy because Trump will have spent down the interest rate cuts having used them trying to get re-elected.
The reality is that he views the Fed and the US economy as a tool for his own aggrandizement. His China policy is purely red meat for the base who will wake up one day to find themselves paupered and abandoned by Trump.
8
@Girish Kotwal
"Free and fair" 2016 elections. You must not be paying attention. Russia interfered in "sweeping and systematic" fashion on behalf of Trump, the Trump campaign enthusiastically cooperated and colluded, even if Mueller couldn't establish conspiracy,and they are interfering now. You are right in that I and millions do not accept the outcome.
Trump has not done anything to help the economy except the temporary boost from the tax cuts for the wealthy that also exploded the debt and budget deficits. The government ran out of money early and Congress had to dramatically raise the debt ceiling as a result. The tariffs are a tax on Americans and increasing our costs. He is a climate change denier and has actively suppressed the science when we should be acting NOW to combat climate change.
Trump is constantly angry, hateful and hate filled. We react to him negatively because of his words, behavior and actions. Trump followers are always upset that we react negatively to Trump even though he deserves it.
The best way to bring about positive change and move our country forward is to do it together, not by ripping us asunder and fueling hate and division as he has done from the beginning. He doesn't "deserve" another 4 years. He is unfit, corrupt and dangerous to our country and our democracy.
9
It is difficult to learn household economics let alone one required to manage the fiscal and monetary policies of a country especially if you have bought your education at one of the top finance programs in the country. The myopic ‘king of debt’ and the ‘lord of bankruptcies’ would have little understanding of economic cycles, trends and the ramifications of continuing trade / tariff wars on the future economic state of the country. Without support from the Fed and enabling of the so called fiscally conservative GOP, the current economy wouldn’t be anywhere.
8
So if I understand this correctly; the economy is booming (still wondering for whom, certainly not for the average American); the rich and corporations have their tax breaks; we’re in the midst of tariff wars causing prices to rise on goods while the country’s deficit is in the trillions and climbing. If the government were a regular business, bankruptcy proceedings would have started a long time ago. Who are we kidding?
18
I reads these articles and have to wonder where you folks get the gall to write them. The Fed kept interest rates at 0-.25% for almost the entirety of Obama's 8 years. They raised interest rates ONCE, from 0-.25% to .25-50% in December of 2015. That tells you one thing - that the economy was too weak and fragile for them to raise rates back to normalcy. Practical zero percent rates is not normal, it is clearly indicative of a weak and fragile economy. Then upon the election of Trump, the Fed went on a TEAR, raising rates at every meeting 8 times in a row, starting in December of 2016, when the stock market exploded and went parabolic . Thats right, 8 times.
So, who had more help? Who's economy was strong, and whos weak?
The business community went bonkers over the election of Trump. They knew, that he knew how to incentivise business. Trump lived and breathed business his entire adult life. Thats why the stock market exploded 40%. Thats why the economy is booming now on every metric. Thats why there are jobs a plenty and incomes are finally rising. those manufacturing jobs Obama said would never come back have experienced their greatest growth in 30 years. As for deficits, it takes time for those tax cuts to work their way into the economy. After Bush cut taxes in 2001, deficits didnt start to fall until 2004, when they went from 415 billion, to 318 billion in 2005, 248 billion in 2006, and 161 billion in 2007. Tax cuts work. History proves it.
8
@NYCSurgical - Um, Trump went bankrupt multiple times. For the life of me I don't understand why people are still deluded enough to think that he's some type of business wizard. He's a con artist who was lucky enough to be born into money.
10
True but this just perpetuates the myth that the President has all that much influence on the economy, which of course they don't! This ranks right up there with the Stock Market is the economy, it ain't. If the President really had that much influence his bone-headed economic and trade policy would have crashed the economy long ago. Instead it seems likely to be timed to nicely coincide with the next election, way to go!
5
@Chris
Well, the economy has exploded on Trumps economic policy. i dont know, maybe he knows a bit more about business then you do. He runs a multi billion dollar, worldwide company, that built skyscrapers all over the world, creating tens of thousands of jobs in the process. Sure, he took over the company from his Dad, but it wasnt a billion dollar company then. It is now. Trump has 10 billion and a plane.
I guess that resume, experience, and accomplishment pales in comparison to yours for you to make such a statement?
2
Let's see those tax returns so we can judge for ourselves. It may be all smoke and mirrors.
6
@NYCSurgical
And he's only had to declare bankruptcy 6 times.
6
Trump Bus 101: Spend other peoples' money; declare bancruptcy; sue/blame/delay consequences as long as possible.
62
@Mike
If its so easy, why havent you done it?
And yeah, one of the ways to get rich is spend other peoples money, or borrow.
Thats how its done.
4
@Mike don't forget fraud and abusing the legal system with frivolous litigation.. I'd say well at least he keeps lawyers in business, but he doesn't pay those bills either.
13
Except Trump didn’t get rich. He was born that way, and then lost billions of other people’s money.
12
The world economy is so huge neither the Fed nor Washington policies could do no more than put a trifle dent in it. So don't fret. Think globally
@jazzme2
I try to but when I realize that food stamps are being cut, that VIET NAM homeless are on the streets asking for money, when children are in cages. It is hard to not see how Trump is destroying the lives of so many innocence people
4
there a lot of folks in this world of our (7.7 billion) and e coli happens constantly so ying yang over time is rather constant. So again don't fret to much but for sure let's do what we can to prevent dystopia occurrences like stupid wars,climate change, Republicans at the bully pulpit and controlling the Senate, the electoral college and not charging the mega rich and mega corporations enough in taxes etc. feel free to add to this list
1
"Lower rates help to prop up growth by making it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow and spend."
The problem is that businesses have already borrowed huge amounts, and so have consumers. In this environment, encouraging more borrowing seems likely to put more companies and people into bankruptcy. So another "great recession" would be entirely possible.
And don't forget the huge number of retirees looking for a reasonable return, with low risk, on a lifetime of savings. Very low interest rates will impose great hardship on this portion of the population, which will be forced to ask their children to help with financial support.
The Fed will be hard pressed to help Trump and his Republican enablers dig themselves out of this looming hole, and Democrats will have a long slog to repair this damage.
7
When the next recession comes, not only will it likely be a doozy, the budget deficit will explode in ways not seen ever in U.S. history. The current recovery has been helped by a Fed that, in an unprecedented fashion, responds to political pressure from Trump and by a Republican Party no longer interested in even rhetorically pretending to care about the deficit.
Add on top global slowing, Trump’s trade war with China and our allies, and the next recession will be ugly. The only issue is when.
19
President Obama gave Trump this economy. Everything Trump has done undermines our economy. So far, Obama's pluses are outweighing Trump's minuses. So far.
15
@Aurora
Thats wrong on every metric.
If Obama gave this economy to Trump, why did the S&P rise a mere 1.4% during Obama's last 2 years? Then catapult an astonishing 40% upon Trumps election?
Why did the Fed have to keep rates near zero for the entirety of Obama's presidency, only to raise them 8 times upon the election of Trump?
Obama said manufacturing jobs were never coming back, yet they have experienced their greatest growth in 30 years under Trump. Why didnt incomes rise at all during Obama's tenure? even declining many quarters? Yet they are finally rising consistently under Trump? Companies were leaving the US in droves under Obama because of our high corporate tax rate. that stopped, and many have returned under Trump.
Obama presided over a slow stagnant economy because he had zero business sense. Honestly, what part of Obama's history gave him insight into business and the economy? Thats right - none.
2
Aurora, so your agreeing that the economy is doing well.
Oh, really, Surgeon. Really. Because “Fortune,” magazine says the exact opposite.
https://fortune.com/2019/06/03/stock-market-trump-obama-sp-500/
Course, they were unfair. They went and done used facts and numbers.
1
This article confirms that the economy is doing well despite the Trump tariffs and his other attempts to undermine it. In other words, his claims about the economy are believed by his uninformed and gullible followers, and R's. It appears that the casino mogul is at it again.
8
It doesn;t really matter, does it.
His economic policies have been successful, and that's undeniable.
3
Checked your 401k lately? There’s trouble in paradise.
18
@Objectivist
Economies fueled by massive debt may expand, but they do not grow. Conservatives think if they run up the debt, it never has to be paid.
15
@Objectivist Not yet. The previous administration left a healthy economic structure-- to build on, one would hope
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_policy_of_the_Barack_Obama_administration
However, Trump and GOP 'trickle-down economic' policy coupled with Trump's idiosyncratic inflammatory trade conflict and lack of planning for American workers as we enter an age of AI (artificial intelligence) and other new technologies, plus Trump's tax bill of 2017 which gives a massive PERMANENT tax cut to corporations and the richest people in the country and a TEMPORARY tiny tax cut to the middleclass in what is now a sinking housing market and increased violence inspired by Trump's rhetoric (or lack thereof) -- makes one wonder how long it will take for America to thrive again.
9
My business is already bracing for impending tariffs and scrambling to keep our industry afloat - without anyone being fired! - thanks to Trump’s misguided tariff war with China. Will my being out of a job and being unable to contribute to the well-being of my children make America great again? This monster is a failure as a human, and, now, as President.
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>>>Mr. Trump ran larger annual deficits in 2017 and 2018, as a share of the economy, than any president since World War II with an unemployment rate below 5 percent.<<<
In other words: Mr. Trump was given a growing economy by President Obama. Mr. Trump and the Republicans have used government money at the tax payers expense to spoof the economy. Eventually this house of cards will come tumbling down.
45
Trump has the same fraught relationship with economics that he has with the truth and the rule of law.He thinks that his big spending, big borrowing ideas should be rubber stamped by the Fed and by Congress.The Fed has accommodated him with this last interest rate cut-this gives him the green light to pursue the dangerous trade war with China.Of course China is not going to bow to Trump-their economy is about as large as ours and they hold a trillion dollars of our debt.Trump has frolicked through his own economy by lavish spending, filing bankruptcy, and skipping out on loans.He needs stern people to guide the economy-Mnuchin and Kudlow are not up to the challenge.
12
If you take the average of the 10 quarters of real GDP growth under Trump you get 2.6%. And if you do the same for Obama’s last 10 quarters you get...wait for it...2.6%.
Job creation in Obama’s last 30 months is faster than Trump’s first 30 months.
The sum of budget deficits forecast for 2018-2027 is up 40% under Trump, vs. the Obama policy baseline (the January 2017 CBO forecast). The 2018 deficit was up 60% vs. that forecast.
And 2 million more are uninsured, with 20 million nearly losing their coverage in 2017 when the bill that passed the Republican House nearly passed the Republican Senate, with Trump’s support.
Taking the good economy he inherited from Obama and making it worse is nothing to brag about. It’s up to the media to make sure people know it.
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@David Doney
Corporate media seems to have decided they like their corporate tax cuts better than the Constitution, so they keep pretending Trump's constant attacks on the Constitution are not Hgh Crimes, as do centrist Democrats.
Anyone that talks about impeachment without High Crimes is trying to make an omelette without eggs. It only helps Trump.
High Crimes:
Calling for violence against Citizens without due process.
Claiming the entire judiciary is broken, making personal attacks on judges, and claiming the president can interpret the Constitution instead of SCOTUS.
Refusing all Congressional Oversight, by withholding documents and ordering subordinates to claim privileges that doesn't exist.
Saying he can decide who is a citizen, and questioning the citizenship of Citizens (including members of Congress!) without due process.
Taking the side of the Hostile agency that attacks our elections, while accusing the entire U.S. Intelligence Community of being "treasonous" with no credible evidence for years, and no explanation, other than "Putin strongly denied it."
The Republican appointee of Trump's Republican appointee, said that Trump committed multiple acts of Obstruction (High Crimes when Nixon and Clinton did it), said cat Trump could be inducted for them when he left office, and referred them to Congress, because "the Constitution has a process other than the criminal justice system to formally accuse a sitting president."
The media said it was boring!
1
One word, fracking. We are producing more oil and methane than any other nation on earth. Sure we are going to cook this planet, but what do we care, it’s all about the economy. So buy an expensive truck or SUV, help out trumps economy. We will never learn.
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@Harry B
Bravo, the only comment in this thread to bring up climate change, what we should really be worrying about - and doing something about. Unfortunately, really doing something about the climate will mean lowering of the standard of living for all of us, and that will never be accepted politically. In a finite world with finite resources, we simply cannot "grow" forever. Yet we live in and promote an economic system that requires just that.
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I don't know much about economics but I understand that our country survives as a country in large part based on taxation. It astounds me to no end that the wealthy republicans that scream patriot only do so if someone else pays for it. Hiding behind "job creator" isn't necessary anymore. Now its just blatant class warfare and the richer winning.
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The federal reserve's job is to set the stage for the economy to remain stable over the long-term. Trump only cares about a thriving economy during his term in office. In fact he would prefer it if the economy crashed the day after he left office, it would look like Trump was responsible for the booming economy. Responsible economists and the Federal Reserve need to realize this short-sighted goal, and plan for the long-term, not just for Trump's ego
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To be clear:
In 2016 the Republicans promised not only to balance the federal budget deficit but to eliminate the national debt. That's not happening.
Republicans in 2016 promised to close the trade deficit. That's not happening either.
Trump promised GDP growth of 6-8%. Instead, we're getting 2.1% GDP growth, which is below the historical average for the last 70 years. You can see where this is going.
In reporting on the economy, the media should remind readers of what the Republicans promised in 2015-2016. It's only fair to see how they're delivering or failing to deliver on their promises.
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@Ponderer, all very good points. However, these people have selective memory, as has been demonstrated time and time again.
By now, no one with a single live molecule believes anything this person says. He would claim he never said it.
As Ms. Keller pointed out all this will go down very badly and he will whine and say it had nothing to do with him. Of that, there is no denying, as that's all he can do - deny, deny, deny.
10
You have to wonder how much UAL contributes to Trump when he gets them images like this.
3
Growth for whom and at what cost (to whom, to the environment)?
Look at labor force participation. Look at the tanking ecosystem, the crying immediate need to get off carbon yesterday. Look at the continuing inequality, widening inequality.
I mean, I know we Ivy League professional types care about the stock market, but the vast majority of people who don't have four hundred bucks for an emergency sort of don't care, and rightly so. As the man said, "It's not my GDP."
Snort at that over your bespoke skyr-and-muesli breakfast as you plan out exactly when to go to the Hamptons or the Vineyard all you like. It's still reality.
And of course the NYT, as ever, is happy to reinforce the neoliberal frame. Stimulus for whom, directly? Stimulus of what actual indirect impact on others? What were the opportunity costs of that kind of stimulus--idiotic tax cuts mostly for the rich and corporations and yet more monetary crack with -355% interest rates? What couldn't we do and for whom with that money?
None of this is fit to print in the NYT. I'm surprised they didn't headline it thusly: "Trump's Golden Economy A Light Unto the Nations, Outshone Only By His Christlike Message of Love."
13
@Doug Tarnopol You know it's a fact that 80% of Americans got a tax cut right?
Some of your points are well taken, like household wealth and low savings rates, combined with out of control spending could spell complete disaster when the Social Security Trust Fund goes Bankrupt.
But the Economy is stronger. I graduated in 2010, coming right out of the Financial Recession. Over the last 3 years my income has increased roughly 30%, my student loan debt is under $10k, I bought a house and a new car. I'm not saying I owe it all to Trump, but deregulation and tax cuts haven't hurt.
Finally, this is far from a Trump puff piece. People used to be triggered by anything Pro-Trump. Now they're triggered by anything that isn't vehemently Anti-Trump
2
@Sam No, we know that Trump SAID 80% of Americans got a tax cut. My taxes went up and my refund was reduced, after his bill when through. My retirement account declined in value, for the first time in 9 years, under Trump.
18
@Sam Should more tariffs be imposed in September those 80% of people who experienced a tax cut will see that cut disappear to pay the sales tax and you will be part of that 80%.
Now, explain how deregulation has helped our society in general, specifically, the benefits of deregulation and the pitfalls associated with deregulation.
6
With all the goosing like the massive tax cut, America could have grown - on the back of the massive deficit, of course - 4% had not been the stupid trade wars against everyone. Trade war against China amounts to war on Walmart - or worse, the mom & pop stores. Now, the Amazon and Walmart of the world with deep resources to wait it out can go in and clean up. This is not restricted to retail. You can bet the smaller manufacturers who are dependent on foreign components will suffer more than their tax cut they got earlier.
8
The Vast Majority of Americans will Never see
Retirement.
Trump could care less .
19
Economies dont move that quickly. It takes years for a policy shift to take effect on trends. The economy we’re seeing now has its roots about 6 or 8 years ago.
Likewise the policies taking shape now could mean catastrophe 2 years from now. And were a Democrat to win in 2020, guess who will get blamed for it? Democrats just cant get a brake.
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@Faisal You are correct, except that 6 or 8 years is a long lead time. The 2010 election was an illustration of part of your point. The economy crashed under a Republican federal administration in 2008, but as the pain was felt, the voters punished all incumbents in 2010, including Democrats. So far, the Dem presidential candidates have failed to address the fact that the economy is doing well because 1) a rising economy was inherited, 2) it is borrowed from the future in terms of deficit spending and environmental destruction.
25
@Faisal Exactly. Has happened for the last 45 years. The one and only job of a republican president and Congress is tax cuts for the rich.
24
@David Richards
"So far, the Dem presidential candidates have failed to address the fact that the economy is doing well because 1) a rising economy was inherited, 2) it is borrowed from the future in terms of deficit spending and environmental destruction."
While what you said above is absolutely true, this message is the perfect way to put the conservatives, and many moderates, to sleep. They don't want to know this, they don't care, or they deny the truth of these statements. This message would fall on deaf ears.
4
The irony is that the supposedly fiscal conservative GOP has funded economic growth by increasing the government's debt.
381
True, and we will not have those growth tools when we really need them. All economies are cyclical.
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@D
Exactly!
For as long as I can recall, the perception of Democrats was that they always "gave away the store". I don't agree with that, however, if that perception still exists than the perception of the Republicans is that they continue to "give away the store - but only to themselves" i.e., Trump's tax bill in which the majority of folks who benefited from that were the wealthy and big businesses.
We are headed for the financial cliff and the Democrats will be blamed.
26
@D
It's not irony. That's the plan. The same plan they've been using since at least Nixon.
Republicans cut taxes on shareholders with most shares being owned by the rich, but claiming they are helping everyone. This gets them political points.
Then they raise spending mostly on privatised sectors of government spending, so that their corporations get more income from the government, and get points for spending based growth too. Raising spending while cutting taxes always leaves higher deficits, so they blame the deficits on Democrats.
Then Democrats come into office, and raise taxes and cut spending to reduce the deficit, losing political points in both counts for the pain they inflict to reduce debt.
The the cycle repeats.
The only Republican to reject this strategy was Bush the father, so the Republican Party abandoned him, making him a one term president.
Democrats have to stop letting Republicans determine their policies by throwing around the word socialist.
Stoo worrying about what Republicans will say and do the right thing.
16
The economy isn't good and any economic action Trump has taken was not for economic growth, unless you're only counting his bottom line.
These articles are irresponsible propaganda. I'm getting sick of writing a book on all the ways we're still decades behind where we should be every time I see an article like this saying how great the economy is. Every metric they use to measure how economy are rich people metrics... the stock market only affects 13% of the population... wages are at 1970s levels... prices are double what they were a decade ago... and the unemployment rate is a fantasy number based on a household phone in survey of 60k houses and directly leaves out those most likely to be unemployed -- the transient and the homeless.
You keep telling us to spend... that it will be alright... keep spending... economy's great!
Then when the bubble bursts we're going to be left high and dry in the big game of robot-apocalypse musical chairs.
35
"Rich people metrics." So true! I can't stand the way people have bought into the " booming economy" fantasy. Thanks for telling it like it is.
12
Conservatives are under the impression that lower regulations on business, and lower taxes on rich people and businesses lead to a growing economy. Lots of regulations create large number of new jobs for people who work at businesses enforcing the regulations. They also cause businesses to hire more workers to accomplish the same task. Additionally, they create a large number of jobs for lawyers and consultants to help implement and monitor the business. They even create extremely high paying jobs for lobbyists who try to repeal or limit future regulations. A big win for jobs creation overall, and many dollars now in these employee hands to spend into the economy. High taxes take away funds that businesses and rich people would hoard in buying stocks, bonds, land, etc. and transfer them to people who will spend the dollars as consumers of real goods and services. Plus, everyone feels happier, and thus spends more, as inequality is dramatically lower. Tax, redistribute, and regulate, the key to happiness and economic growth. That is why the European economic model is so much more desirable than, say, the Singapore model. Just compare the two and see for yourself !!
7
@drcmd What would comment and analysis state should the tariffs that is being threatened bear fruit and the goods you and I purchase are subjected to a 10 to 25% tax?
Second, many companies when they received their windfall chose stock buybacks rather that capital spending.
Lastly, the effects of the tariffs are beginning to be seen as some industries are beginning to contract as sales are decreasing to the higher prices those manufacturers pay for materials and finished goods.
So, will your glowing outlook change when the effects of a sales tax takes hold?
2
@Dan Tarriffs are awesome. A 200% tariff on all imiports from any country would be super awesome. They are a great way to redistribute more funds from the rich, both companies and wealthy individuals, and then the money collected on tariffs would be rebated to the bottom 80% income and wealth wise, of people who reside in America (documented or not). This would be like a very high VAT tax, but only against the rich. Everyone else would have much more money to spend, so the economy overall would boom, and also be much happier because inequality would be lower. Also, with all this increased spending as a result of increase regulations, high taxes and tariffs on the wealthy and businesses, etc. new companies with new ideas would blossom to capture that new demand, and that would create more high income business owners, who income and wealth would be transferred once more to the rest of us, a virtuous cycle for America !! People might says this sounds like Greece or Latin American countries, etc. Do not let them mislead you !!
1
Nice try! Obama had the most pro-growth Fed in history! There has never been a more prolonged period of zero rates (not even close), and concurrently with this the fed was dumping cash into the marketplace some five years into a so-called expansion. It was needed perhaps to deal with a limping economy. Enter Trump and the fed can’t raise rates fast enough (again, necessary in this case though to address an economy that got white hot with enthusiasm through the roof). Although the rate increases during the Trump administration may seem small on a percentage basis, when you start from a long term unprecedented base of zero, even a quarter point vastly increase the cost of money.
8
Help, indeed. Trump has led the country to near records for budget and trade deficits (not to mention doubling illegal crossings at the southern border.). Republicans would have been crying for execution instead of impeachment under a Democratic President. Irrational policies and worse execution on trade and other key areas has sapped the huge growth we would have achieved with such an unprecedented expansionist scenario.
22
"Adjusting for the strong economy Mr. Trump inherited, the analysis using the Taylor Rule shows that the Fed has set rates lower on average during Mr. Trump’s tenure than under any president since Mr. Carter."
Donald Trump is never satisfied. His bullying of the Fed to help him politically through unwarranted stimulus is unprecedented. I suspect when the inevitable downturn occurs--and it's likely to be big, bad, and horrific, given the boatloads of debt Trump has saddled the country with--the Fed will have few weapons left.
Furthermore, the concrete help the Fed has given this administration is giving Trump a false sense of security that he can try to browbeat China forever, and still "win."
So what's he going to do a year from now, should we be in a major worldwide slump that
threatens the livlihood and retirement of all Americans, including his vaunted "base"?
The one thing we know for sure: it won't be his fault.
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@ChristineMcM
The sad part is that it’s likely to cause a worldwide recession, all done for his ego.
3
@ChristineMcM
The whole point of the Fed is to keep politics out of monetary policy, so Trump demands that the Fed helps him politically.
Trump is attacking every pillar of our Constitutional Republic at the same time, so that each pillar is unable to support the others.
I'm not a fan of how the Fed operates, and I would like to see a serious discussion about reform, but that is not what Trump is doing.
The wealthy will continue to reap the vast majority of economic benefits through tax cuts while the rest of us in the middle class will continue to see a gradual decline in our ability to maintain our standard of living.
It's time to vote the Republican who profess to be good Christians and proudly attend Church every Sunday while during the week they are jumping through hoops to ensure that tax breaks flow upward to the 1%. Meanwhile while the poor and homeless continue to suffer on the streets of the richest country in the world.
20
@Tony - "It's time to vote the Republican who profess to be good Christians and proudly attend Church every Sunday..."
This is the mantle they try to hide behind, so let's get real and take religion out of this; it does not belong. This is what they choose to do in the name of their handlers.
1
Here is my economic prediction for America under Republican leadership: The wealthy will continue to reap the vast majority of economic benefits through tax cuts while the rest of us in the middle class will continue to see a gradual decline in our ability to maintain our standard of living.
It's time to vote the Republican "Christian" white males who conspicuously attend Church every Sunday running circles the rest of the week to ensure that tax breaks flow upward to the 1% while the poor and homeless suffer in the richest country in the world.
20
As we move toward 2020, remember that the great economy and low unemployment rate we have enjoyed for most of his presidency is not Trump’s doing. I mean, how could it be, right? Got it.
5
@ehillesum Would a two trillion dollar yearly deficit change your mind, three? He is bankrupting our nation during low unemployment. Is that how you run your finances, buy stuff on credit then tell your neighbors it’s your financial wizardry? Were the tax cuts a boon for the rich, yes, but my taxes went up. Oh and enjoy paying for the Trump tax every time you buy consumables. Do you remember 2008 and the economic collapse? Was it liberal spending or Republican mismanagement, deregulation and insane spending on two wars?
9
First, the economic cycle is much longer and less affected by what a president does than most people think. Second, the political influence that Trump has had on the economy is only possible through a complicit Congress for his first two years. Third, this level of economic ‘success’ is not sustainable and when it turns down Congress and the President will not have positioned our economy and country to have the tools to shorten or smooth a down-turn. Finally, and most important, any economic ‘success’ is in spite of Trump’s incompetent leadership, not because of it.
157
@TDD. Well it’s funny how that works. The Dems take credit for the times their Presidents are in office and the GOP does the same. It’s the cleanest way to do it. Otherwise, the GOP will go back and say W could have done better if Clinton had not been his predecessor and Obama will claim W put him in the hole. And your view does not adequately reflect the intangibles like electing someone whose views made businesses confident about expanding and hiring and picking justices who wouldn’t go all Socialist on us. Add a tax cut and that can make change happen fast. And it did!
It is such a same that Republicans (both in government and the economy) have aloud themselves to sink into such a paranoid state of mind that they have wasted a decade now of solid growth potential on conspiratorial back stabbing and gotcha games, and now trade wars and tariff tit for tats... my grandfather is rolling in his grave!
18
“I alone can fix it”
No one else remembers that one liner?
71
The 'very stable genius' truly believes that he knows better than anyone on anything. I hope that #DerangedDonald doesn't do too much damage to the USA but I fear it may takes 10 years to recover from his 'leadership'.
119
@Ted Morton
Trump attacks the plain letter and spirit of the Constitution. He attacks every pillar of our Constitutional Republic.
As someone who spent the eighties watching wanna be presidents for life destroy the economies of South and Central America, while torturing and murdering people by the tens of thousands (with our help), I am afraid the Right will get the civil war they are pining for, and we will never recover.
Trump is not a Clinton or a Bush. Trump is in a class of his own.
1
Bush also started his presidency with a budget surplus. After two terms the economy was on the verge of a collapse.
283
@mark
Well put.
GOP seem to follow the meaning of crazy. Doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result.
7
@mark
The economy was already on a downturn when Bush came into office. Then came that small blip on the radar called 9/11. I was in Manhattan that day. My sister in law worked in the Towers, and my brother worked in the building right next door.
Ill never forget it.
Seems many of you already have.
1
@mark
Yes, the assumption that tax cuts for shareholders grows the economy is based no evidence.
In fact the evidence says the opposite.
Average GDP growth is down since 1980.
Average productivity growth is down since 1980.
Capital utilization is down ten points since 1980.
After inflation wages are down since 1980.
It would take two hours for an amateur to verify this. It should take this author twenty minutes.
Supply Side Economics is a fake theory that had never raised revenue or created more than a fragile bubble in growth. Over the long run it moves money from the consumers who drive the economy to the rich who use it to manipulate the economy.
NY Times, stop selling Supply Side Economics
7