This is not a war. If it were a war, we would have both leadership and strategy. This is just a crap shoot.
It's called playing the long game. Time is on China's side, because U.S. politicians can't think past the immediate benefit to their pocket books.
3
Global financial markets are not only facing risk from Trumps escalating trade wars, they are also being rattled by increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf. In addition to possessing large energy reserves, Iran occupies a geo-strategic position in the Middle East—between Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Indian subcontinent and abuts the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic “choke point” through which circa 25% of the world's energy transits. The situation in the ME continues to heat up following UK PM Boris Johnson’s decision to join his ‘friend’ Trump/US Navy to ‘protect’ oil tankers in the Gulf. In hindsight, it is clear what Trump’s plans were following his exit from the JCPOA and immediately re-imposing US economic sanctions. Iran would have to either totally capitulate to US demands or be bombed. There are over $1 quadrillion (1000-Trillion!) in derivatives tied up in Oil/Nat gas futures. Thus, any disruption of energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz will result in oil reaching $200- 500 /barrel (Goldman Sachs projections). Since energy is priced in dollars, any US war on Iran will inevitably interrupt energy trade, which will blow a hole a mile wide in energy derivative markets and the US dollar.
See: Iran Goes for "Maximum Counter-Pressure" by Pepe Escobar June 20, 2019; Link: www.unz.com/article/iran-goes-for-maximum-counter-pressure/
DJT is not qualified for the post he holds.
Literate, reasonable adults know this as fact.
Now the rest of the world and DJT’s base are, or will find out the same. In global politics and finance incompetence can be devastating.
It’s a shame that so many have to suffer because not enough people voted in 2016.
There is a valuable lesson to be learned here. I do not think it has to be explained any further.
2
Is it just me? I always thought that our companies here in the U.S have been sending all the manufacturing job's to China for decades. More profit using cheap labor. I can't find anything made in the U.S.A.anymore. Even Old Glory is made in China. Lot of whining going on. How do they steal our technology when we give it them?
7
China has 300-400 million middle and upper class people and 1.1 billion peasants. The threat to the autocratic rule of the CCP is and has always been unrest in the latter; the former have been co-opted. No economic policy of the CCP dates threaten the peasants. And since they buy almost no imported goods the international value of the Chinese currency is meaningless. However, many peasants rely on jobs in the export sector. To pressure the CCP we need US companies to begin moving production out of China back to the US or to other Asian countries. That is why the CCP warned Apple that any move to shift production from China would be met “with the sternest measures.” Want to change Chinese economic policy? Attack the economic position of the peasants.
4
@Eric Weisblatt
Once again power punishes the poor. It's a fact of life when the corrupt leaders protect themselves at the expense of their people, even if we try to help them. We've seen it in Cuba, North Korea, and now China.
2
Did I read that right, China will be purchasing zero soybeans?
So the American farmers who support Trump are going to line up for government support that Trump will be handing out. It's a complete business failure on the backs of taxpayers, by a con man from Manhattan.
13
This is a very cynical point of view. It’s a question of long-term gain, over time factories and production will move back to the US and other Asian countries. We built up the agricultural sector through artificial purchases of China. That may have to shrink but the US overall benefit will more liable trading partners, and better jobs.
5
@Paul
That's pie in the sky thinking. There are no "artificial purchases" in trade, if there were it would not be hurting American farmers on the scale we are seeing.
What happen to the phase by Trump "Tariffs are good, and easy to win", tell that to the framers and American consumers who are ending up funding Trump's game.
4
@greg My question is: how is China going to feed all those people when they are unable to do so on their own.
If unrest is what they are trying to mitigate, making food more expensive and less available is not the way to go.
They are already dealing with a pig shortage due to illness which has culled numbers and now they are going to cut soybeans?
Its interesting when you look at a country that has a large part of the world's population and is unable to feed it do to polluted land and water.
The US may rely on them for manufacturing, but they rely on the US for food.
3
China will bank on Trump's defeat. Their problem will be the harder stance of Democrats, particularly on intellectual property. Trump will be so soundly defeated that the Senate and House will be Democratic. The Democrats will keep them for many years. Voting will become easier and more secure from suppression thieves. The wicked fun Trump rallies, like the hippie wicked fun rallies of old, are mobilizing a “moral majority”, this time made up of one-person-one-vote, better health care, equal opportunity believers.
2
“...a long-lasting duel between two economic superpowers.”
And millions will suffer as a result of the politically motivated whims of a mere handful of egomaniacs.
Though China does need to stop stealing intellectual property and change its stance on human rights, the U.S. could do far better as a global partner.
2
My advice to those with supply chain based in China: move out as fast as you can!
This has become more a matter of national security than is trade. We can't sell our sovereignty for cheap stuff.
One country controlling the world's manufacturing is not smart.
We need to start boycotting those large organizations that keep insisting in making goods in a communist nation.
I got rid of all my fruitOS devices.
12
And how are all of you going to explain away the simple fact that China is owed TRILLIONS of dollars by us , the US govt?
They’re called treasury bills & they will likely be dumped ... causing a never ending rise in interest rates...
Duh
who knew that trade wars were just so easy to win?
1
@Adam S Urban Warrioru They won't be "dumped". But they will be liquidated as "same as" dollars. If they want to buy oil, using dollars, they can easily buy the same billion dollars of oil with $1 billion, or with $1 billion of treasuries.
Dumping would hurt China. But the simple fact is that the accumulated dollar wealth they have is now needed. So they will sell, and not buy.
2
Not for me to tell you how to control your government, but I can tell you the experiences we have in Australia.
I would strongly suggest you all get behind your government and your president in relation to China - whether you hate him or not.
If you don't, you had better expect a worse lifestyle, reduced production facilities, a country dominated by outside influences, a country sold out and bought out by China, China influencing your political system and infiltrating your education system.
If you believe China is just another Asian country with no influence, you will be wrong.
Trump, for what he is, good or bad, is the first to stand up to China - and the world really needed it.
Whether it is him or someone else after your next election, no matter what, you had better hope that the USA wins this battle.
Everything China has done to get to where they are is through arrogance and deception beyond what you can imagine.
They are a country awash with money and they use it where you would not expect.
And again, if you don't think it can't happen to your country - you are wrong.
16
@Rod They already tried to buy seats in US Congress in the 90's. A bipartisan committee (Yes both parties) during the Clinton administration found that the Chinese were not trying to target the Presidency, but seats in Congress.
They have tried it before, its just that people are so focused on the sitting President they cannot remember the past.
1
So sad that it took a loony like Trump to finally stand up to the Chinese Communists. Don't kid yourself. Our system represents an existential threat to their power and vis-versa. This will get much uglier but it is unavoidable.
13
Based on thoughts by many of my Chinese friends, many, perhaps most Chinese see Trump as a symbol of the old "West is superior to East" school, i.e. a non Asian superior US is trying to dictate the terms expecting the Chinese to ultimately kow tow,
It would seem obvious that this is not your grampa's China and will stand much stronger and be far more willing to endure the economics, At the same time, China has come to see how weak the US can be, certainly in agriculture, sales at Walmarts etc,
Trump went in with a swing punch and got in a blow, but I think it has done what we once saw psychologically when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. Yamamoto stated in simple terms, we've awakened the sleeping Tiger. China may yet to be the angry sleeping Tiger,
Meanwhile politics of territory and control of Asia grow evenmore tense,
No, Tariff wars are not easy to win, which some fool recently said,
3
The author writes that both Xi and Trump rely on a "political base that responds to nationalism". As someone living in China for over a decade, I have observed that Chinese nationalism (in the general population, I have no access to the CCP) runs in tandem with an enormous popular respect and admiration for the United States that is well represented in popular media. Most Western visitors to China are astounded by the gracious civility, to the point of embarrassing attention, that they receive upon arrival in China.
In contrast, the U.S population, despite its domestic racial "model minority" appraisal of Chinese people, does not seem to express much, if any, admiration for the citizens of China, other than sympathy for Hong Kong dissidents and Tibetan/Xinjiang minorities led by the drumbeat of the Western press.
It would take Xi and the CCP many years to instill in China's citizens an enmity against 'America' equivalent to the one that flourishes in the U.S. against China.
8
@john. Indeed. I’ve lived in Wuhan for 9 years. Media representations of Chinese civic life are inaccurate at best. Most of the stuff media imagines the average Chinese citizen thinks, what they desire, or their belief systems....are largely fallacy or projection. It’s a complicated place that can’t be reduced to media representations.
4
I too have spent significant time in China over the last 10 years and I agree with everything that is being said here it is a very complex country that has a great deal of admiration for the United States. A lot of the letters are based on liberal readers who hate Trump and generalize that China is all powerful and they root for the US to lose due to trump. It’s very sad that they can sell their nationalism for some globalist elite pipe dream.
The Chinese are playing three dimensional chess and our clueless president is playing checkers and thinks he is winning.
8
From wall streets to the farm and beyond to the towns and cities of America Trump is going to get his come uppins. That's my take on the final vote of where this Prez is trying to take US.. The Democrats shouldn't fret cause no matter who is nominated: She wins. IMHO.
1
Pres Xi doesn't have an election coming up, trump does. And trump's only success so far has been, riding on President Obama's coattails, the economy. So China threatens to devalue their currency and what does the Dow do? Plummets. But that was just a warning shot to trump of what might happen 3 months out from the election. Trump will talk tough but eventually cave. The Chinese watched trump negotiate the worst trade deal in the history of the world, NAFTA, and the main thing that changed in the agreement was the name. Trump claimed a great win. Sometimes, it's too easy.
2
Xi Jinping didn't inherit 295 streams of income from his New York City real estate baron daddy.
Indeed Xi Jinping as the eldest of a Long March Chinese legend saw his father reduced to next to nothing when he was targeted for banishment and humilation by Mao Zedong's Red Book Cultural Revolution escapade. Mao Zedong's death followed by the rise to power of another target of Mao's wrath Deng Xiaoping saved his father and him.
But Xi Jinping is known as a ' princeling' because of his heritage. A leg up but no guarantee. Merit is the is the ultimate key.
Deng Xiaoping created a socioeconomic structure of socialism with Chinese characteristics aka capitalism and democracy with Chinese characteristics aka a term- limited collective leadership.
Xi has kept the capitalism. But rejected the term-limited collective leadership.
Xi is the 1st Chinese leader since Mao Zedong whose thoughts are deemed worthy of study by members of the Chinese Communist Party.
Xi is the 1st Chinese leader since Deng to be designated a ' core leader'.
By refusing to name a successor and reign and rule until death Xi is seeking ' The Mandate of Heaven' of a Chinese Emperor.
Xi Jinping has more experience and talent leading a nation state government and politics than Trump. Plus Xi is far smarter and wiser than Donald Trump will ever be. Indeed, what current world leader friend or foe isn't?
12
@Blackmamba
Yawn!
You sound like a person in love.
Let’s see Emperor Xi solve HKG first. Then let him out duel Trump.
Let’s just see how this plays out. I bet the emperor has no clothes.
4
@Blackmamba
This is not a fight between just Trump and Xi Jing Ping. It is also a clash of cultures, the free democratic west, vs authoritarianism. Strong and stable American companies who managed to fight their way to the top, vs Chinese companies who are propped up by Billions of dollars in state funding.
Xi Ji Ping might have more experience, but does China have more experience than the American government and people? Are Chinese companies stronger than American companies. Can China maintain their military stranglehold on their own people?
China's government and Economy are weaker than America's. China's companies are addicted to government intervention into the economy. Take away the endless supply of money and tarrifs and they're at the very best break-even companies.
Xi Jing Ping abandoned the proven logic of Deng X and strayed away from respecting the party. He has ended his own term limits so that he may rule as a dictator. He used anti-corruption crackdowns to eliminate all of his political opponents, how does that make him a good leader? His ideas are plain bad, firing up nationalist rhetoric before China is able to enforce their will upon their neighbors. Decreasing freedom and increasing government control, prosecution of ethnic minorities and clamping down on Hong Kong and Taiwan?
4
Trump has made sure that reconciliation is impossible. While I am not impressed with the man's intellect, bully boy Trump is likely adept at knowing when he has left the other guy no way out with dignity intact. Bullies are good at this. Bullies do this when they are certain that they have the upper hand. They thrive on inflicting humiliation. But China is not going to tearily hand over lunch money. For better or worse, the consequence of its' recent history is that China will absolutely not stand to lose face, to be humiliated. If there is no path that allows China to save face, there is no path at all. I think China would choose destruction over humiliation and this makes Trump's game extremely dangerous. It seems that our esteemed leader is close to locking us in a cycle of conflict from which there will be no escape, a conflict that could ultimately threaten the world, a conflict where any victory would be Pyrrhic. Scared yet?
14
So we should just let them continue with their predatory loans across the world, camps for religious minorities, etc?
What is happening now that wasn't happening already?
All that is necessary is reading this paper to see how they act across the world and you can understand how they act with respect to smaller countries: as a bully.
And they have been doing it for years.
To be honest, I'm rooting for Xi Jinping. I hate trump that much, and want to see him gone at any cost.
16
@William Thomas That is a very myopic view. You are watching a country that is much harsher than any policy that DJT has and not understanding that.
Whatever you think of Trump, China is exponentially worse on every topic: the environment, interfering in other sovereign nation's politics, human rights, monitoring their own citizens.
1
There is no way to continue calling China an "emerging economy."
22
Hardline stance? Standing up to a bully is the appropriate response. The economy? Not my economy.
9
There is a continuing misunderstanding in the US that China is still simply an emerging economy. In fact, it is now an economic giant and failure to understand and accept that fact continues to misinform American policymakers.
China will not only "survive" a trade war with the US. It will use this conflict to further its global ambitions to create and sustain an alternative global economic system devoid of reliance on good trade relations with the US.
China now has a middle class economy with millions of consumers. It no longer is dependent upon US "Walmart" buyers of it products. Yet American policymakers still operate under the belief that raising the cost of Chinese produced goods via tariffs will both generate import substitution domestic US production and damage Chinese manufacturers. But those manufacturers now have a huge domestic Chinese market the demand of which can be met internally while simultaneously moving export-focused production to other global locations.
US policymakers, motivated in large measure by their white supremacist inclinations seem blind to the degree to which Chinese manufacturers are cultivating African-based low cost production centers. Production centers that will readily sell finished goods to the Western economies.
The reality remains that the US is in relative decline vis a' vis other global economic players. On a global export basis it is more and more simply a natural goods supplier. And an easily replaceable one at that.
19
China is losing the fight - already
From the South China Morning Post , one month ago
Header
"Vietnam biggest winner from first year of the US-China trade war as supply chains shift, report shows"
Subheader
"The economy of the southeast Asian nation was boosted by almost 8 per cent due to the shift in production as importers sought to avoid Donald Trump’s tariffs"
The shift was already underway, as Vietnam wages are 1/2 of China's but the Trade War accelerated it.
See from 2018, Reuters : "Apple assembler Foxconn considering iPhone factory in Vietnam - State Media"
So China is losing. Who might be the other winner besides Vietnam ?
US consumers who will get cheaper products (lower wages - lower costs) unless US companies pocket the wage difference.
Alas, they are wont to not do so, as long as the market does not force them to.
The poster child is Apple that pocketed the US/China wage difference for many years by outsourcing its production to China , so now it has $245 billion in cash on hand.
That is billion, folks, not millions.
13
@woof Production is moving from factories in China to factories in Vietnam. Who owns the factories located in Vietnam?
7
@Woof Foxconn is a Chinese company. All they've done is move some of their production.
5
@Seldoc
Foxconn is a Taiwanese company. Small distinction, big difference.
4
Mr. Trump IS utterly capricious and knows little about anything except perhaps how to throw red meat to "his base". The Chinese are going to find it hard to satisfy Mr. Trump when his probable goal is his own re-election. He is certainly America's worst leader since Harding.
Only Mr. Trump could make Mr. Xi look somewhat reasonable. The Chinese leader is the most dictatorial and repressive China has had since Mao. Ironically Mr. Trump is strengthening his stature in China as someone who will stand up to the American bully.
What is sadly missing in these discussions is the effect it has on the average Chinese or average American citizen or on the long term effect on world trade. A tariff is a tax, plain and simple. We are all paying for this.
12
@Gary A. Foxconn is Taiwanese.
1
Republicans are very good at taxing the middle class.
Taxing themselves? Not so good
Our Grifter in Thief thinks in terms of news cycles while the Chinese think in terms of centuries. If Trump had ANY curiosity, intellect, historical knowledge and perspective outside his racist xenophobic bigoted lying conspiracy theorist "mind" he would know that. Vote them out. Vote them all out.
17
I just have a feeling that somewhere in the back channels between China and Russia this is again their opportunity to chisel against the Dollar as the Reserve Currency. Putin would love to see nothing more than that, and with China having so much international infrastructure to be paid in Dollars they might just now agree with Putin. We shall see who's the chicken this time, my bet is on Trump. Biggest loser US Farmers.
6
US consumers lose. Farmers are getting subsidies (to keep them voting for Trump).
2
"China’s leader sent a strong message: the Chinese currency could be used as a weapon in the trade war."
Well, they finally admit to it afters decades of denying it. China manipulates their currency! So lets start put restrictions on them accessing the Western financial systems since they are an self-admitted currency manipulator. Thank you Xi for handing us a victory.
7
Ah, yes I almost forgot: "trade wars are easy to win"..
Well anything sure can look like a victory if one is adept at wishfull thinking and knows next to nothing about economics.
But still, two questions:
What exactly happened recently between your WH and the supposedly independent FED?
And what effects do you think the countless years of massive QE had on the dollar?
Kettles and pots all of that...
Trump’s tough stance on China is about the only thing he’s doing right.
For decades the Chinese have forced American companies to hand off technology to local “partners” (while its being stolen regardless by the state hacking apparatus), and generally do business in China with one hand tied behind their backs.
Not to mention, it’s an evil Dictatorship that kills its own citizens for speaking out against the government.
Why in the world would anyone want to make a regime like that stronger?
20
American companies went to China willingly for the cheap labor. And now here we are.
13
@Nancy
They also went to China willingly to have access to a market of 1.5 billion people, who as they become richer can afford to buy "stuff." Any and all kinds of "stuff" from KFC chicken to Chevy cars (made in China) to airplanes, to ... you name it.
2
Both parties sold the USA down the river ..... not just with China. But Japan ...Korea and Mexico. China is just the latest using our silly trade policies based on geopolitics ... not trade.
Unfortunately China is ... a lot bigger and more focused on control.
China is a threat that must not just be addressed -- we must counteract the vital parts of industry they have captured. Spend some time looking at how they have undermined our ability to develop and manufacture pharmaceuticals -- they own the market with many base chemicals.
The list is endless. Tariffs and trade restriction are vital -- more needs to be done. The short term pain is nothing compared to what is going to happen if we do nothing.
I have spent my life in international trade -- as did my father .. came back from China two weeks ago. People who do this for a living understand ... I will make less money .. and the country will be better off.
8
A lot of people saw this coming. It's gong to hurt.
Trump went up and punched the biggest guy in the bar. Considering that it's Trump, watching China kick him where it hurts might almost be worth the economic pain that's sure to result. Out nation did, after all, vote to put him in office so it's not like we don't deserve it.
6
China won’t back down. This is finally their moment to show the world that they will no longer play second fiddle to America. Sadly, this is America’s own doing by electing a knucklehead like Trump. China’s is playing high-stakes strategic chess during a historical moment, while Trump is out playing golf at Mar a Largo.
5
If this is a war of economics the Chinese will win hands down. Unlike Americans the Chinese will sacrifice and adapt, their centralized government makes this even easier. Americans on the other hand will never sacrifice the cheap Chinese products they get from Walmart. Even if they go up in price a few dollars. Furthermore, our crumbling manufacturing is held together by subsidies, chewing gum and duct tape. It’s just a matter of time before the little products we make will relocate to Mexico to avoid the tarifs and to take advantage of the cheaper labor markets South of the border. All in all, this is one of the dumbest moves we could have made as a country.
2
It is amazing how the American Farmers were the rock Stars of global Trade. They benefited from NAFTA and and had a steady source of migrant labor. Yet they aligned themselves with Trump. For what purpose? I don't get it.
Now they are relying on government handouts.
13
Our tax $ no less
Rural Welfare queens?
Where do these folks go once their hero walks away from them? No president can subsidize them forever....
The difference; the Chinese leader is there for life, Trump on the other hand maybe a second term. The Chinese obviously know that.
7
In China, all the posts regarding this trade war are full of patriotism and willingness to sacrifice. In the comments here, there's mockery and schadenfreude for the US. What could go wrong?
Our partisanship has become so severe that we would rather America lose than see our partisan opponent win anything. Regardless of your partisan views, China is no friend of the US. China is the country that is in all form and function closest to the state fascism we saw in WWII, with millions of Uighurs imprisoned, an incredibly nationalist population and absolutely no freedom of speech and assembly. China is a country that has imposed tariffs on our American exports for decades and banned Google and other American tech companies, yet now is angry that we would dare do the same on them. America is not the aggressor here. It is simply returning the favor.
10
Please readJeffrey Sachs’ opinion on CNN website for a much more informed article. Trump and the USA are the currency manipulators; China is simply reacting. I think you could easily replace the Chinese leader’s name with Trump in this article and be much closer to the truth.
4
@Sunshine Coaster we don’t peg our US dollar currency, its value is determined on the freely traded FX market. Therefore it’s impossible to manipulate our currency. If you want to hate everything trump does then just say so, but don’t pretend to back up your thesis with economic evidence.
1
Welcome to the New Cold War, everybody! This completely avoidable nonsense just got serious, and we're all at risk of becoming collateral damage. Where are the adults who can steer the world out of this mess?
1
I'm not a fan of Trump, but I hope he can pull this off.
7
"A quixotic, emotion-driven President Trump." The Chinese know whom they are dealing with, although I do protest at the insult to Don Quijote. Trump does engage in imaginary wars, but it's not amusing or instructive. I would replace "quixotic" with "psychotic." His crazed obsession with China stems from his mantra that we are "losers" because of our trade deficit with China. And, if we dig deep enough, that voice in his head sure seems like his father, drilling into the young Donald that the world consists of losers and winners. But now it is coming to the point where this psychotic fixation is doing real damage to the world economy, provoking an unwanted confrontation with China that could result in serious consequences both economically and politically for the United States. Imposing tariffs (by Trump unilaterally) has no justification. There is no national emergency or national security imperative. Congress, not the president, has the authority to impose tariffs. Trump should be impeached on these actions alone, i.e., a blatant abuse of power. He should be told as much by leaders of both parties and in both houses of Congress, and if he will not relent, it's time to kick him out.
1
@C.L.S. “If he will not relent it’s time to kick him out”. Surely you jest? This man was elected president of the USA. Like it or don’t like it. You’ll have your chance to “kick him out” in 2020. Spoiler alert: reparations and identity politics won’t get the job done; you’ll need to come with substance if you want to replace him.
'Emperor' Xi should pray that Trump wins in 2020. If Elizabeth Warren were to win, she would be far tougher on China than Trump. She will require all US trading partners to comply with global warming and union labor standards. Warren's internationalist approach would be deadly for China's economy while, in comparison, Trump's blunt tool of economic protectionism is relatively tame! However, if Biden wins, it will be back to the old ways - we do not want that!
4
Who benefits from sudden and unexpected tweets? Note that Trump has tweeted about increasing tariffs or being tough on China just about when stock markets have reached a new high. His tweets then tank the market. So short-sellers who can predict when Trump tweets can make billions of dollars in the stock and option markets.
Are investigators of the Securities and Exchange Commission checking this out?
39
@Independent Citizen all of his cronies are laughing on the way to the bank. This is something that I asked myself often, when will the investigators be called into action?
4
It seems the trade war took an unexpected turn which trump did not expect. I'm convinced that his intention was to tax average American indirectly to make up for the tax break he gave to top 2% of the Americans but some how it spiraled down and now the cat is to of the bag.
No one knows the reasons behind his random quirky announcement about the tariffs. I think some one needs to monitor Trump family's stock trading during these wild swings in the equity markets with his announcements and see if they are deliberately done to benefit himself.
29
Not pleasant to read, but many Chinese describe Clinton, Bush, and Obama as the "Three Stupids." Chinese people instinctively know that the USA and the West were both greedy and weak as well as easily fooled. The USA gave its wealth, power, and standard of living away for a shopping cart full of cheap consumer goods. We should be embarrassed. Trump is not always entirely wrong.
40
@Redneck
Tell that to Boeing, Applied Materials, or Iowa soybean farmers, who successfully sold billions to China and made billions in profit. You are giving two partial pictures: the American buyers but not the American sellers, the ones who couldn't compete in free trade and the ones who could.
6
@Redneck surely some of the trade issues should be discussed, but the intellectual properties for example make no sense to be regulated now after all these years of acceptance by the business that chose to agree to those terms. Repubs want business free of government so why submerge in this now? All business had to do is decline their production in that country. I can clearly recall China buying a high speed train from Germany, ran it for six months then claimed it in "repair" and two years later emerged with their own version of bullet train that they sold to Japan. Did they disassemble that train and made their own, mhhh. They did this all along but no consumer or manufacturer cared by boycott or not producing there. Greed? Stupid? You tell me.
5
@Redneck
Yes, even a broken clock is right twice a day, and Trump is right about China.
7
Xi Jinping is in a strategically advantageous position in his confrontation with Trump, who foolishly started early on under the mantra of trade wars are easy to win and consequently started them with any country that displeased him and which, in his view, ripped off America. In the process he bypassed diplomacy, dismissed the WTO, trashed trade agreements and treated allies and foes with equal disdain, exactly the opposite of what he should have done. Most of the rest of the world also views China as an economic threat, and instead of allying himself with its major players, stupidly chose to go at China alone. Potentially facing a strong worldwide economic downturn if the present situation is not defused, Trump is caught between his ego of always being an unrelenting winner and the increasing possibility that a bad economy will cost him the next election and certain jail time. Xi knows this as well and will use it to gain the upper hand over Trump. The ball is suddenly in Trumps court and gotten substantially more massive and he has only his gut-strung wooden racket. Xi will not give in, so the question is, will Trump blink and relent or take the world down with him?
10
@Rudy Ludeke I've got an idea. Resign.
1
So much for an independent currency regulator in China. Trade war looks winable to me.
8
Conservatives just don’t get it. America has almost no soft power at this point under their leadership. Just read the news about America from the world and see for yourself.
If you conservatives truly value your pocket book and our future help impeach and support the removal of Trump. Where is the line that he crosses or assists others in crossing that is far to far?
Have you hurt liberals and people enough yet?
11
This liberal understands that we must disentangle from the power hungry, brutal dictatorship of China.
We may have some years of a rough transitional period, but what we risk if we don’t galvanize to face this fact now with righteous courage will be infinitely worse and more costly, even to our personal safety and democracy.
7
They won’t be happy until they’ve burned down the country. And of course they’ll still blame Democrats for it. I’ll never vote for a Republican for as long as I live. Ever.
3
@Lilly Yes! Well-said!
This may not work, but at least Trump is trying to address China's stealing our intellectual property and trade barriers. It's better to act than to sit by and lament "It's too late..." or throw up our hands.
12
@AACNY "Stealing our intellectual property?" This fiction needs to be called out once and for all. American companies who have chosen to manufacture in China were never forced to locate there. Any conditions that they found to be too onerous regarding intellectual property could certainly have been met by deciding not to locate in China. Anyone disagree?
4
@AACNY
China didn't steal our intellectual property - WE gave it to Them. Our fabulous Fortune 500 CEOs looked at the cheap labor and the extra money they could make by sending manufacturing to China, and decided that trading their intellectual property was worth the profits they wanted.
Our CEOs are laughing (quietly) all the way to the bank, even though they sold the rest of us out. Who's laughing more now? The Chinese. Who's crying now? Us.
Wall St. and American CEOs are doing Xi's and Putin's work for them. And we descend into the abyss.
3
@DaveB I absolutely agree. We gave it away. I refuse to believe that these companies/CEO's were shocked.. shocked to see that their products would be reverse engineered.
2
Is this what Republicans really wanted when they voted for trump?
1
@Thom Robbin Yes. And registered independents too; I’m one of them.
Why do we continue to educate Chinese nationals at our universities when they are clearly the enemy? How can we be so naive?
Just think of if we let Soviet international students flood our education institutions during the Cold War. We would have never stood for this.
9
@John
Answer: both greed and intellect. Chinese students, like those from Saudi Arabia and other Mideastern oil countries pay full tuition (and probably other incentives) to study here. The Chinese applying here are also some of the best of their age group in knowledge, intelligence and performance and make excellent researchers in science and engineering. Thus they are crucial to many advances and discoveries in STEM fields, for which the US researchers and/or their institutions retain the IP rights. Most of their graduate work gets published and is thus available throughout the world for further development. The type of work they are allowed to participate in is largely controlled and limited to non-sensitive areas of science and engineering. A few may be spies, but it should be up to the universities and research labs to limit their access to privileged data. On the whole their presence here is to our advantage. Of course, it would be highly desirable to have more US students vying for these positions, a fact well acknowledged by the call for more and better STEM education in all grades and college. But it is slow in happening.
3
It seems to be a mistake to allow China and other communist and autocratic regimes to join WTO and the mainstream of global trade. Trade war with China might, just might, put a brake on our senseless consumption and may not be that bad thing for our environment.
Globalization was basically done to enable politically well-connected Western companies to exploit almost free labor (comparable to slavery), cheaper raw material, and no regard for any environment & other laws (human rights included) in those 3rd world countries. Done only to boost profit for the company, without much benefit to people. Our corporations & richest people got the same privileges of those old days of slavery and ways to do business in line of Carnegie & Rockefeller.
As economic prosperity of western consumers deteriorated, we got more dependent on cheaper Chinese products, and also manpower from such countries to work here- again mainly to boost corporate profit (and not much for better talent.) Cheap products also affected environmental pollution- globally.
Consumption of goods must be at a fair price for the producers- i.e. farmers, laborers, general employees etc. Globally, including in USA, income of those working class people are decreasing, in percentage terms. Farmers' suicide is routine in America, France, India & most other developed & developing countries are routine, as (consumers)/"market" refuse to pay the right price while middlemen & big businesses enjoy huge profit from it.
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@bonku
Ultimately we have to blame ourselves, consumerism and spending beyond our means was not only invented here but practiced to its apogee through clever marketing and exploiting our cravings. No other developed country has the level of trade deficits we have as a result.
6
A large part of our state (WI) economy & a large number of farmers depend on dairy. For last many years increasing number of farms are being closed, simply because the product they make have no market or too cheap to sell.
Just imagine, one cow produces ~ 6-7 gallons of milk/day. Each cow eats ~100 lb of feed + many gallons of water. You need at least one full time employee to take care of 5-10 cows. And it's very demanding job 7 days a wk. Local milk price is just $2.30/gallon. It's not much possible for farmers to sustain a dairy unless huge investment for expansion, mechanization & eternal source of cheap labor is ensured. Most dairy farm labor used to come from Mexico, who used to work at very low wages. Yet those dairy farms r not much sustainable.
This is despite the fact that US dairy farmers are producing almost three times more milk with about half the number of cows compared to 1960, thereby reducing the total amount of feed, water and space needed, and resulting in less manure.
Most local dairy farms r sold to big corporations. But that's basically the death nail for so many local farmers. We have seen the same in other commodity market which is now dominated by just 4 corporations controlling >73% of global commodity market while farmers r in dire situation, committing suicide on regular basis in many countries including USA.
Now extrapolate that with other sectors & bring cheaper Chinese goods, service, manpower frm developing countries into the picture.
3
Contrary to what many American policy makers (including President Reagan) once assured us, economic prosperity of Chinese or Indian or Russian businessmen did, and still do, not advocate for more open society or strengthening democracy. They almost always either try to flee those countries or collude with the political masters in those countries to remain in control of enormous wealth.
On the other hand, political leaders from China and other such, mostly, lawless countries got more wealth to spread their corrupting influence to other countries, besides building more powerful military to threaten global peace in search for more wealth/fame. This geopolitical conflict (besides this trade war) with China is also our own making.
If western countries are really serious of global development, minimizing immigration, & uplifting those developing countries, then they must promote honest & talented people there and/or bring such people here. USA/West must not collude with the corrupt elites and/or dictators from such countries in USA/West or in those countries for short term gain. It would ultimately bring long term problems which would far harder to solve, if at all solvable.
3
This is not a trade war between 2 strong men. It's between a strong man and a school yard bully.
Trump is dependent upon re-election and if he tanks the economy that's not going to happen
Xi has no such concern and he knows Trump does, so game over Trump.
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@Confused I think it is a trade war between two school yard bullies. The dotard is obviously not the best president, but Xi has caused China a plethora of problems, as well. Neither is to be trusted.
Can't blame the Chinese for this. They gaze across the Pacific and see a delusional child surrounded by incompetents, Trump and his staff. Why should they prop him up? Before long the farmers will be bankrupt and it'll be 2008 all over again. Thanks again Trump voters.
11
Only Donald Trump would not have anticipated that China would retaliate. Meanwhile the US economy suffers and China's new sources of agricultural and other products profit from Trump's Trade War.
Does Trump still believe that he is collecting the tariffs from China instead of US importers and consumers? More importantly, is he fooling his political base?
2
@Bob
Wrong. China blinked first after Trump called it out for currency manipulation.
3
@AACNY
Just because Mnuchin claims China's currency slip is manipulation, doesn't make it so. The drop was small and the renminbi still stands substantially higher from its value if it were traded on the free market. China still props it up, but indicated that it is willing to manipulate it if Trumps keeps upping the ante in his war that hurts the American farmer and consumer.
5
It was a warning shot. The Chinese said, look what a meager 2 % slide of the Yuan that lasted only 24 hours can do to the economies of the world, now think what a permanent 10 % slide can do.
But Trump with advisors like Kudlow and Peter Navarro, both with a long history of being always wrong and on the edges or maybe on the outside of rational rational thinking will be confused, will do something that is bad and we will pay for it.
36
China needs to be confronted over its trade and intellectual property policies, otherwise the long-term consequences will be disastrous. The overall short-term economic pain to the US will be very small, and government policy should help out sectors like agriculture that may be impacted.
29
@RBSFYes, but imposing tariffs on the American consumer is not confronting them. What needs to be done is to promote our economy end production capability by educating our work force in the areas that are needed, engineering, technology, science, etc...
and keeping it healthy and content.
6
@RBSF
Why don’t businesses simply leave? They don’t have to be there.
2
@RBSF How are things over there in dreamland?
4
What the Republicans don't seem to understand is that election hacking can work both ways. They intentionally keep election systems security weak believing that the Russian election interference will help keep them in power. The Chinese tech capability is far greater than Russia's and now that Trump is angering China why don't the Republicans grasp that that this election vulnerability can be used by the Chinese to help the Democrats get Trump out of office.
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@MacMinn
There is an assumption that China wants Trump out. Hard to say honestly but we certainly aren’t selling democracy as a legitimate way to govern.
2
@MacMinn
The heat is getting to you
I think this might finally do Trump in. There is some irony that a two bit country that produces absolutely nothing except Vodka and oil helped him get elected. But Russia is no China and they are going to do their best to see him removed from office in the next election and roll the dice with a Dem. it will nice to see Trump fire up his old jet on trips to his rallies, the only business he seemed to excel in selling anything he can to keep up with the legal bills.
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@Ted Siebert
It's a bit tedious to see how many global competitors share the same objectives as our own Democrats. It would be nice if Trump haters didn't want to see our country fail so baldly.
4
@AACNY That's funny. Most of us see Trump as the source of our country's potential failure. We want our country to prosper, and Trump won't be leading the way. Put down the Koolaid and sober up.
2
The Chinese didn’t manipulate their currency, but instead of propping it up as they have been, let it fall naturally. This was done in response to Trump’s landing the first punch of tariffs and lowering of our interest rates to manipulate our economy. China has been a bad actor in perhaps stealing our technology, but it has been US corporations that have made the choice to outsource our products and the Chinese have complied. Our tax laws created by corporations have even given tax breaks for outsourcing.
Tariffs only hurt our people, while a much larger conversation needs to be had about investing in a massive new Green Technology, using money currently wastefully spent on our military that does not keep us safe, but is used to provide profits through continual conflict for corporations. Just think if the US was the largest r&d and manufacturer of solar tech, wind turbines, electric cars and bullet trains. That would truly keep us safe while combating the real enemy of climate change.
The US military spending accounts for 36% of global arms spending. Our last yearly military spending increase was more than Russia spends. The US spends more than the next seven countries combined. Also the US is spending $1.7 trillion ( yes trillion) to update our nuclear weapons systems - when we already have enough nuclear bombs to destroy to world thousand of times over. This is more than enough money to be used to turn our country around to actually help people here at home.
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@steve
"Just think if the US was the largest r&d and manufacturer of solar tech, wind turbines, electric cars and bullet trains."
That ship has long left the docks. Those technologies are by now commodity, anyone can buy the equipment to manufacture these items and therefore the manufacturing shifts to the lowest labor cost countries or to those with highest automation. Since we don't have a single bullet train in this country, as we deemed ground transportation inferior to flying, we cannot even test them here, let alone peddle concepts to outside buyers.
However, we still lead the world in R&D, even though our support for it, as a function of our GDP, has been declining in years. We need to reverse this trend and nurture the discoveries we make here into needed products the rest of the world needs in quantum computing, artificial intelligence, health-related diagnostics, drug delivery, disease research and cures,
organ fabrication, superconducting electric grids, nuclear fusion technologies, biodegradable materials, etc etc.
7
Donald Trump is not a strongman. He is a weak man wannabe who tries to play a strongman on TV. His history shows that he will bluff and fold, so long as he gets some kind of fig leaf to hold up when he declares victory.
More importantly, Trump is either an economic ignoramus or pretends to be one for what he thinks will be political advantage. He persistently denies the most fundamental insight of Adam Smith--that both parties to a market exchange become wealthier from it. Instead he insists that one must win and the other lose. Good things will not come from a negotiation directed by a man who refuses to understand the first thing taught in Econ 101.
37
This is such a biased narrative. It is NOT two strongmen with equal fault. This trade war is 100% the fault of the United States.
It is an unprovoked attack by Donald Trump on the latest of many nations using his "threaten then extort" tactic. Only this time he made the mistake of picking a nation with a backbone and enough self-respect to punch back and put him in his place.
As the Chinese said "If they want to talk, we will talk. If they want to fight, we will fight."
If only Canada, Mexico, and Europe could be so courageous. Then at least the Iran deal would still be alive.
60
@Tim. Believe it or not, China has tariffs on every kind of American exports, including cars and agriculture. Trump was simply the first president to publicly call foul on them. You may hate the man, but the trade war is not the fault of Trump, it's the fault of China's mercantilism and its very unequal trade practices.
12
@Tim. Believe it or not, China has had tariffs on every kind of American exports, including cars and agriculture, well before Trump's tariffs existed. Trump was simply the first US president to publicly call foul on them. You may hate the man, but the trade war is not the fault of Trump, it's the fault of China's mercantilism and its very unequal trade practices. It was always ludicrous that China was allowed to put all kinds of tariffs on American exports, while we didn't tariff them one cent.
4
@Jonathan
Looks like there's a ball of orange hair clouding your vision. Trump started this war. This is a simple fact, and I'm afraid it doesn't require your permission to be true - you're just going to have to eat it.
8
But contrary to Trump’s claims, China isn’t footing the bill for his tariffs, American business owners are. Some are buffering consumers from drastic price hikes by taking the hit themselves, or are spending money moving their supply chains away from China.
Farmers took a hit at the start of the trade war, but the Trump administration started offering aid, and, it seems, is now over-compensating on some fronts, costing taxpayers more than $26 billion in 2018 and 2019.
16
Every time I read about problems of Trump's China policy, I am reminded of how Jared Kushner discovered Peter Navarro and recommended him to Trump (from his book sold on Amazon) no matter that Navarro's policy recommendation of using Tariff as a tactic is diametrically opposite of what most main stream economists on either side of the political spectrum would recommend.
The Beggar thy nation Policy of the 19th and early 20th Century has long been abandoned until Donald Trump and Peter Navarro brought it back. If and when this policy fails, don't blame it on the Chinese-- ask the White House why they decided to pursue this policy in the first place?
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@Elizabeth
Well, mainstream economics got us into this mess. NAFTA, job losses all in name of globalization that benefits "all"
Stop listening to Krugman. He's just a political hack, who fixes data to tell the narrative he wants. Just doing this will increase your understanding of macroeconomics.
1
@MS
You are so out of date - just like Navarro.
3
@MS
Please point me to an article where Krugman was wrong AND stayed wrong. Because far-rightists and Trumpists always point to the same articles, conveniently forgetting that Krugman himself corrected what he wrote a few weeks later AND finally proved to be correct. Such an honesty is light-years away from what a Trumpist can even apprehend.
2
And US policy is being led by a many-times bankrupt huckster with zero experience in macroeconomics or financial responsibility. What could go wrong?
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@The Two-eyed Citizen, or *personal responsibility*.
4
@The Two-eyed Citizen
People of wealth are typically protected from their idiotic actions by capable employees who nod and do what is needed to maintain the business. In Trumps case he fires them.
5
Xi will outlast Trump, and probably has the ability to contribute to his end by not appeasing Trump and his minions before the election. The US has beggared off so much of its national debt to foreigners, that we leave ourselves vulnerable.
6
Did Trump’s supporters elect him to be a strongman? Strong enough to wreck our economy?
12
Article states:
“The ideology of the Communist Party has long espoused suffering for long-term gains.”
Well, we don’t adhere to that ideology nor we have the patience to even try it.
12
What could possibly go wrong?
2
"Communist Party must not bend to foreign nations". It is not the communist party but China, the middle kingdom, that has vowed "never again" to be prostrate at the feet of western powers. All one needs do is remember that the British, those paragons of western civilization (19th century), flooded China with opium when China ruled it illegal. Just as we would not bow to a foreign power neither will the Middle Kingdom.
13
@Vimy18 One of the successes if the CCP is to get mainlanders, and most everybody else it seems, to conflate them with China. The CCP is an unelected group of thugs that rules China with an iron fist. Just look at the army, who's stated loyalty is first to the CCP, second to China. But... the CCP and the Chinese people are not the same.
4
China is playing a very long game, unlike Trump. If we don’t get major concessions in forced technology transfer and rampant intellectual property theft, this will all be for naught.
Just remember: trade wars are good, and easy to win.
3
Not as reported in US media, but China has also cut off trade with Canada solely because Canada followed treaty obligations and arrested a Chinese executive at US request.
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@North
Clearly easier for some Americans to blame Trump than China.
1
You write as if China is the aggressor in this trade war, deploying “weapons” against an innocent US. Please remind us who started it and what China is responding to with its currency decision.
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@Michael Munk. China started it by mandating technology transfer, having tariffs on all sorts of American exports well before Trump's, banning Google etc from operating in the country, and stealing IP.
Don't call the shopowner the aggressor when he finally catches the shoplifter.
7
@Michael Munk
China is the aggressor.
They have been requiring any company that wants to do business in China to provide our technology to them as an entry fee to their markets.
The Chinese goal is to move up the technology food chain to replace the United States.
5
@Michael Munk
China is the aggressor because of their IP and currency policies.
Have you been on Amazon recently? The number of cheap Chinese copies of ... everything... is staggering. There is no rule of law with regard to IP and it's purposeful.
China is also a humanitarian nightmare.
2
So this man trump has, once again, got himself in over his head. He has set in motion a seeming inevitability that his never thought-through trade policies—not to confused will all his other not-thought-through policies—will scuttle the world’s economy, which he might need to be told includes the US economy. It’s as though he is looking for a way out of any second term, god forbid, and hoping on leniency when he resumes his civilian status. Big difference between bullying López Obrador and trying to bully Xi Jinping.
6
Finally.
To me this is good news.
Finally we are waking up and fighting a dictatorship that undermines democracy and that wants to crush all sources of freedom.
A dictatorship which incorporates everything you read about in 1984, where only the interests of a few rich people matter.
A dictatorship that has imprisoned over 1Mln Uighurs in East Turkestan, that sentences the most people to death and does not release information why.
A society that is pure evil.
31
@Nick, there is no arguing that there is a brutal dictatorship in China. But if you think that Trump's tactics amount in any way to "waking up and fighting a dictatorship", then you're badly mistaken. Don't conflate waging a pathetic, unwinnable trade war with trying to undermine the Chinese regime's brutal and autocratic behavior. Trump himself has no interest in such a project.
11
@Nick
which country are u talking about where the few rich people matter??
11
@Nick
No society is pure evil.
12
From the Chinese point of view, the erratic Trump tariff ups, downs, and delays seems simply more of the economic imperialism which was actively practiced on China by western advanced economies until about 1948. Certainly the Chinese government (and most probably ordinary Chinese) do not want to remain a maker of cheap goods for western consumption. Until Trump (and he has no allies at the present time supporting him) lays out a coherent, consistent, and definitive vision of Sino-US economic relations, I would guess that any sane Chinese sees no long-term risks; rather than risks, they see only a road to economic self-determination and development.
17
The Global Times, known for its bluntness, said “Trump’s capricious administration could push things too far, which would lead to severe consequences the U.S. never anticipated.”
The Washington Post is reporting that "President Trump is increasingly acting based on his own intuition and analysis and not the advice of aides in the increasingly fraught trade war with China, five people briefed on the actions said, shattering a more cautious process that had yielded few positive results so far."
So this looks like a mental contest between Trump on one side and Xi and his subordinates on the other.
Given how chaotic Trump is, in his personal life, his business life and his maladministration, and given that he admits he has not strategy, my money would be on the Chinese.
Talking about money reminds me that I have not heard a great deal recently, since the Chinese decided to forego buying any farm products, how all those "patriotic farmers" in flyover country are doing.
Farmers generally carry enormous loan balances every single year, hoping to pay them off around New Years, and then borrowing again for the following year before they start to plant in the spring.
If there is no "deal" soon, how many of those farmers go belly up, even with the few tens of billions of dollars of "corporate welfare" that Trump is handling out, using the money collected from you and me by way of those tariffs?
There must be plenty of angst among those farmers who voted for Trump.
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@Joe From Boston
Do you really think farmers are going to join a party that has labeled then "flyover rubes" and complained bitterly about their subsidies? Farmers are smart enough to know when they're being played and aren't likely to fall for this newfound faux concern for their wellbeing.
2
@Joe From Boston
In Trump’s mind it is a matter of priorities.
It may be a tough time for farmers this year, and many of them may lose everything.
But the real benefit is in making the bully feel powerful.
Mission Accomplished !
3
@AACNY
You think farmers who lose their farms will vote for Trump or will they stay home?
They DO know when they've been played and that's why they will stay home.
3
The impending collapse of the Chinese economy has been predicted by the western media ever since China's opening up and reform policy 40 years ago. They were all wrong. Could this time be right?
11
@Agostini
It seems to me that an economic collapse is only consequential if the people are prepared to do something about it.
An example might be the French Revolution of 1789, where the people decided that they had had enough, and eliminated the ruling class. What ensued was chaotic for some time.
Unless the Chinese people are willing and able to have a revolution, economic collapse is not going to change much in China, except that there will be more pain in the average person's life. China is not going to declare bankruptcy. Neither will the US, unless Trump decides to give bondholders a "haircut," which he suggested some time ago.
If the same relative amount of economic pain were to happen here, you can bet that we would make some changes by way of the ballot box. 1929 -1932 might be a good example.
3