There states that matter the most are primarily in the Mid West so perhaps we should vote for Mayor Pete, Amy Klobuchar or Tim Ryan.
2
Black Democrats are more socially conservative than white Democrats, especially on the south. No wonder they support the most socially moderate candidate- Biden.
3
Blacks need to stop voting for the Democrats until they actually act upon their concerns. They take advantage of their support by offering them empty platitudes when the election rolls around and then ignore them afterwards. The recent talk of reparations is just another example of a blatant ploy to get their vote.
7
@Andre, what you suggest would just lead to more elections of Republicans that are far worse, so that doesn't help at all. The only solution is to vote for the candidate most likely to make good on promises within the Democratic primary
6
I'm with Ms. Powell.
Once again Black citizens have the chance to throw off the hoax the Democratic Party has laid upon them since Roosevelt. Their solid perpetual Dem vote was kept firmly intact by a party that did little more than keep them in status quo . Time again to demonstrate the chump out is over.
8
A racist is a person who engages in racism. A thief is a person who engages in thievery. A person’s race does not forecast or identify a particular type of personal conduct, behavior and or disposition.
Most Blacks I know are more attracted to Sen. Warren at this point. The DNC has their preferences also as do others!
4
Why would the "black vote" be monolithic? After all, Dr. King said that people should judge another not by the color of his/her skin but by the content of his/her character.
15
Most important: make sure to vote!
5
The many candidates note in many ways WHO
Al Sharpton pushed Joe Biden to apologize this weekend and Joe wouldn’t. Beating Trump is the only thing that matters, turnout matters. Talk about the need to turnout, talk about how any democrat is better and safer than Trump. Talk about how republicans tried to depress black turnout in the last election and how racist they was. Stay focused
7
@DeirdreHaving lived in NY when AL Sharpton was accusing people of intolerance and worse stuff he should apologize to that before he asks JB to apologize
8
Why do small backward red states like Iowa and South Carolina have any say in determining who the Democratic nominee will be?
7
It is amusting to read this piece; black voters leveraging their voting strength with warnings of their power? They would be wise to support the candidate with the best ability to defeat Donald Trump. African Americans are fully aware of the consistent underllying resistance they face and the bigotry barely below the surface. In 2016 they were a weak voting block (Barack Obama was not on the ballot)and faced their worst nightmare, Donald J. Tump.
So before they jump into the arena with demands for special privieges from any candidate, they might want to look at who will face greater pain if Donald J. Trump wins in 2020.
7
It's a shame to hear the same old rationale people used to justify voting for Clinton in 2016. Yawn.
9
The problem of student debt is especially acute in the African-American cohort, if you look carefully at who is getting in over their heads on student debt. Warren's position here is hitting a sweet spot.
However, Warren has gone overboarf in courting African American voters by calling for reparations. Note that this word, reparations, does not appear in this article. Why? Warren has pandered on this position, and it will come back to bite her. The Times knows it but is trying to duck the matter. It can't be ducked. Neither Biden nor Warren can win absent a major blunder by Trump. They have both drifted too far left for popular comfort.
4
@Dave Oedel given the things he has already done and been forgiven for by his supporters, what could possibly count as a blunder by Trump?
4
I just hope any Democrat, whether Black, White, Green or Purple, will get to the polls in November 2020 and vote for whoever is the lead candidate running against Trump. The objective is to vote him out.
8
Are some votes more "crucial" than others?
Aren't all votes equal?
@Jonathan Katz All votes are not equal as long as we have an electoral college.
10
Joe Biden’s position on the busing issue makes me cringe. I know it was 40 years ago but I hope someone asks him to defend those statements in the debate. Make him disavow those statements.
That said, if he is the Democratic nominee I’ll vote for him.
1
@Oliver
What busing statements and positions?
As this analysis points out, the "black vote" has never been monolithic any more than the "white vote" has. It's time to look at black people as individuals with experiences, hopes and dreams that differ from each other.
One well-known black political figure in SC is working for Cory Booker, but others are working for other candidates, both white and black. That's as it should be.
6
Yet Bernie Sanders is the only candidate with a genuine consistent history of fighting for civil rights - the only one there that campaigned for Jesse Jackson for president, marched with MLK, or was arrested fighting housing segregation - a proven lifelong friend of black people who is not bought off by the establishment, and willing to fearlessly take on the establishment and billionaire class who control everything, including people's minds; to rectify growing income inequality where the 1% own 90% of the wealth. Bernie is the originator of Medicare For All and the only credible person that can take that fight to victory, which will be of huge benefit to lower income people. Bernie is the originator of the fight for free higher education, which will open the doors to better lives for all, free from poverty. And Bernie is the most progressive anti-war candidate, having voted against the Iraq war that has squandered trillions and cost countless lives with no end in sight.
6
@Julianbook Sanders originated a lot of important ideas in this year‘s campaign, And certainly deserves credit for that . But unlike Warren, he hasn’t figured out how to put them into action.
7
How about Cory Booker backing out of the primaries, endorsing Elizabeth Warren and both running as a ticket through the primaries and the election !
Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker in 2020 !
Take our country back from the Wealthy and Big Business !
Follow the Blue Wave !
5
I don't think student should be forgiven across the board but I do think student loans need to be rethought. Interest rates should be low and there should be alternate methods of paying down the debt. Many years ago I was able to pay off half of my federal student loans by teaching for five years. I was able to pay off the entirety of my state teacher loans by teaching four years. Boy, has that changed. One of my children is a school psychologist and has worked for several years in at risk schools but her debts can't be even partially forgiven because she isn't a classroom teacher, despite the fact that schools urgently need psychologists and counselors. My son had part of his loans repaid by a state organization but he owed taxes on that money. Many private banks and loan companies can charge high interest rates on student loans. Even with federal loans, the interest rate can be increased over the length of the loan. I guess it's too much to ask for logic but it is sadly needed.
7
How refreshing to know that political candidates can not count on black support as a monolithic group but rather have to approach black voters in the same way they approach white voters, one-by-one with the issues the candidate supports. I personally find Biden dull, lacking in inspiration, and relying heaving on institutional bigotry to carry him to the nomination. If nominated, I predict Biden will not beat Trump because Biden is simply a socially acceptable version of the Trumps in this world and conservative voters that might move away from Trump will not find Biden interesting enough to vote for. Further, Biden does not have the vision and originality to get many Democratic voters to the polls to vote for issues that will make their lives better because Biden is not developing issues that affect the lives of all people. He's meeting with white-male unions, but not with teacher or nursing unions. He's meeting with Black Congressional Caucus leaders but not Black Lives Matter. This is because he wants to ride to victory in the same population that took Trump to victory and that isn't going to happen.
36
@MSC Biden got thrown out there because the corporate Dem elites were panicking. Hopefully he gets taken out early in the game, so we have a chance of nominating a real progressive.
8
There actually is a solid well of support among Black voters for Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who is the most clearly anti-war candidate -- while knowing whereof she speaks as a combat vet (two tours in the Middle East) and a Major in the Army National Guard, where she has served for 16 years. Tulsi is still polling low -- she gets very little attention from the national press -- but her poll numbers often show her highest support is among Black voters. I suspect it is the anti-war stance; however, here in Harlem, a lot of people, when they do hear about her, are intrigued by her background: she is Samoan-American, a woman of color, and indigenous. Young voters and vets will know her as the one presidential candidate who answered the call to Standing Rock. Don't underestimate the power of this woman, who as an aside is both beautiful and compassionate. She is attacked often because of her stance that diplomacy is better than war. A life-long environmentalist, she is about to reintroduce the strongest climate bill in history, the Off Fossil Fuels Act and introduced a bi-partisan bill to decriminalize marijuana at the Federal level earlier this session. Keep an eye on her at the debates next week -- yes, this person most of your readers have never heard, of qualified by both the polling criteria and by raising money from over 65,000 unique donors. She is one tough cookie who makes Kamala look like a light weight.
13
@jackHow is she more clearly anti-war than Sanders? A Sanders/Gabbard ticket would win.
3
I like Tulsi Gabbard, as well (and also Marianne Williamson). Unfortunately, the DNC debate format allows only for one-minute responses, forcing the candidates to come up with quick “soundbites”. This leaves little time for the voters to become familiar with the lesser-known candidates, and only reinforces the stance of the big names. Along with Marianne Williamson
Re: “America is still not ready yet for a female,” said Ms. Powell, 58.
Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 Million.
12
@Rafael "Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 Million."
That may have been the case, but she represents the past, America has to embrace the here and now to build a solid and credible opposition to the Trump phenomenon.
3
@Rafael
" Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million"
The chaos, disarray and lawlessness that is the Presidency of the United States, is the result of the archaic, undemocratic presidential election system, the Electoral College!
No other society, not Iran, Afghanistan or even Russia elects their leaders in such an absurd fashion!
We live in a demockery, not a Democracy!
It's time to abolish the Electoral College!
7
That sounds like the description of a powerful female candidate.
The country should be happy that the black vote is not the monolithic group that political strategists in the past almost always seemed to assume that they were. Not only are candidates going to have to sell themselves to a number of skeptical constituencies, but their isn't any shortcut at all to capture the majority of the voting bloc. To add more difficulty to the task of capturing voters, after a lot of years of politician's promises that were never kept, I would speculate that voters in SC are going to put candidate's positions under a microscope at levels not seen before and make sure they aren't getting pandered to again.
8
Since 1964 when Republicans ran Barry Goldwater as the anti-civil rights candidate, South Carolina has voted for the the Republican nominee in every year except 1976 when it voted for Southerner, Jimmy Carter.
Since South Carolina does not vote Democratic, it makes no sense for South Carolina to have an oversized influence over who the Democratic nominee will be.
15
@Jeff Harris So, African-Americans in Southern states don’t deserve to weigh in early? That’s the same logic used by Sanders supporters in 2016, after he performed poorly in the South, and it’s dismissive and paternalistic. Meanwhile, we get disproportionately white Iowa and New Hampshire at the outset. By your logic, purple states should be heard from first, but the logistics of recalculating that every election cycle is daunting.
4
@Connie Jeff Harris’s point is valid. If the Democratic nominee wins via “a southern firewall” but lacks enthusiasm in traditional swing states, that nominee is going to lose the general.
Honestly, why does it matter - strategically speaking - which Democrat wins the primaries in states like Alabama? That nominee will never carry those states in the general. NH and Iowa lean Democratic, but are also purple states, so they’re better indicators of national success.
5
@Jeff Harris
Agree 100%. Although the counter argument, I suppose, is that its placement early on allows some hypothetical “black vote” to be an actual factor in the nominating process. Maybe that matters; I’m not sure. But given the complete disconnect between who wins the democratic primary there and which party wins the state in the general election, there’s an illogic that produces weird outcomes down the line.
5
Of course black voters are not monolithic. They never have been. They have jobs to think about, mortgages to pay, and families to raise and support.
It doesn’t always come down to race, despite the patronizing, condescending, presumptive attitudes of quite a few candidates who have nothing new to offer but simply assume the black vote is theirs since they’re Democrats.
The candidates might consider that black voters are actively critiquing them on many factors including their anticipated ability to get things done in Congress, economic stability and opportunity, and jobs, jobs, jobs.
So instead of injecting each speech with race, why not move beyond that and try being a little more creative?
12
I like Ms. Harris, but think her job as a Prosecutor has be in the disinterest of those she's served. Warren seems the most series and the one most like to make positive progressive change for the country, for all. Stacey Abrams would have been another wonderful voice for America. Biden, I still remember his supremely condescending quotes about black Americans regarding Obama being the first "clean" black candidate he has ever seen. I hope black Americans remember that patronizing rhetoric as well, which is probably the ice-tip of what he's said regarding black Americans. Bernie looks good as a progressive too.
8
I find it interesting that Democrats in one of the deepest red states play such a significant role in the Democratic primary. Having lived there and 12 other states, a SC Dem is not representative of the typical blue state or swing state Dem. SC
Dems have no context as they have no experience with, let alone hope for the future, of anything close to progressive policies in SC.
10
I suspect that some of the reluctance in embracing another Black candidate after Obama is Black people are worried that white voters aren’t “ready” to vote for another Black candidate, that it’d be pushing things too far.
I’ll note here that I’m Black, and I’d vote for a white candidate over a Black candidate if I thought that they had a better chance of winning, and if I like their stances more.
Some people assume that Black voters will vote for a Black candidate simply because they’re Black, but that’s clearly not the case. The reverse, however, does seem to be a more prevalent concern- whites preferring to vote for whites.
8
The spectacle of the old-line Black political establishment rushing to Biden’s rescue highlights why the Black vote is taken for granted by those who most benefit from it! Talking about transactional! For too many of these folks the staking out of sacred ground is precluded by the imperatives of self-interests! Witness the Ralph Northam debacle in Virginia.
The plain speaker Malcolm X perfectly captured the essence of this phenomenon when he said a people who laugh at themselves will never be taken seriously by anyone!
7
This is a Red state. How it votes is irrelevant. In 2020 no Democrat is going to get a single electoral vote from this state.
12
Bill Maher, who warned us in 2016 that Trump would win the election, said on his show Friday night that the only person who can beat Donald Trump in 2020 is Oprah Winfrey.
After spending much of Saturday watching coverage of the Democratic contenders at the S.C. fish fry, I agree with Maher.
Winfrey said she's not running.
It's a shame because I also think Oprah would crush Donald Trump and no one I saw speaking or being interviewed among the various Democratic contenders today on MSNBC looked like someone who can defeat Trump.
How I wish the people around Oprah would talk to her again.
Oprah was instrumental in helping Obama become the Democratic nominee in 2008 and getting him elected. Her endorsement and campaigning for him were a tremendous boost to Obama. As we saw during her campaigning for Obama & her recent speech in support of Stacey Abrams, Oprah's political chops are real. Politically she's a powerhouse.
Nothing would be weirder and scarier to Trump than running against a black female billionaire who's admired around the world, easily as famous as Trump. And Oprah's much more successful in business than Trump. Unlike Trump,Oprah didn't inherit her money. She earned it.
The Obamas would have a blast campaigning for Oprah, who's their close friend.
Oprah, please. Reconsider.
4
@fast/furious, I don't think we need another entertainer/business person running for President, much as I like Oprah.
3
@fast/furious
Sorry, but this is patently absurd. And since when is Bill Maher some kind of political savant?
3
CORY BOOKER, who has no apparent chance of winning the Democratic nomination and winning against Trump, is .
trashing Biden because Biden said we need to get along with people with whom we don't agree in order to accomplish anything.
Of what possible positive affect does Booker's criticism of Biden
have on the ability of the Democrats to gain power in 2020???
Is Booker's criticism of Biden well thought out to accomplish anything positive for Democrats????
3
@David Getting rid of Credit Card Biden would be a huge boost to the Dem candidate field.
3
The most interesting aspect of this analysis is the generational and urban/rural divide among the African-American community, which parallels general polling results outside of South Carolina.
For Democrats, there is no "monolith" simply because it is the party of the greatest diversity. The GOP on the other hand currently relies on an apparent monolith of older white less-educated voters (the consistent 35% of its "base"). The impact of GOP gerrymandering explains a lot of their "success" in recent elections.
By 2020, there will be a significant number of older voters who are interested in how they are going to survive both health-wise and economically, and an ever-increasing number of younger voters whose upward mobility has been severely stunted by out-sized student loan debt and uncertainty about their economic future. The GOP has consistently ignored these issues and cut funds to essential programs that address them.
If the grass-roots efforts of Democrats can consistently focus on these critical issues and equal or surpass voter turn out at the rate of 2018 for both the youth and the older voters, it will ensure that the GOP loses in 2020.
The Democratic candidate, regardless of who is chosen, has the distinct advantage of the majority recently polled by Monmouth and Marist who say they will never vote for Trump in 2020. That is the "monolith" who will ultimately determine the outcome in the next election, regardless of demographic identity.
4
You know the current front runner feels safe working with the African American establishment, people he's work with for years. But really no one represents young African American interests in the current crop of Democratic party candidates. This is a rather large issue in today's America that no one seems willing to address.
5
Since the South Carolina primary is only three days before Super Tuesday any candidate picking up a lot of momentum in South Carolina is going to have a big advantage on Super Tuesday and the opponents will have little time to blunt the momentum. South Carolina could really be critical for choosing the nominee.
6
Although I am not black and young, I am of mixed heritage, liberal and voted consistently for 63 years. I will not vote for Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders because I believe their time has passed and because of their lack of support for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Mayor Pete has still to prove he can run a city of 100,000 successfully. His South Bend has an extremely high percentage of Black poverty. Beto's voting record is more similar to a Republican than a Democrat. Both Mayor Pete and Beto are articulate and speak a good game, but do not have much of a record as elected officials.
I am all in for Kamala Harris and believe she is the one person who cannot only defeat Trump, but move our country forward and turn back the time of division. It is much past the time for a woman President.
11
So VIctoria, if I'm reading this correctly, you wouldn't vote for Biden or Sanders if they were the winner at the DNC in 2020?
Trump really, really appreciates voters like you, because, much like in 2016, certain voters could not bring themselves to vote for HRC.
So we wound up with Trump.
Nice.
4
Bernie Sanders endorsed and supported Hillary Clinton in 2016.
CSPAN July 12, 2016
https://youtu.be/v_6BevfMygM
5
@Victoria Francis
I am so tired of this “Bernie didn’t support Hillary” trope that I can’t stand it. That Hillary continued to sell this tripe in her book after she lost only demonstrates how destructive she really was, as well as showing she could never own her own mistakes.
1
Biden does well among black voters because he and they are highly focused on actually winning the
White House with a coalition of voters representing many points of views and a diversity of backgrounds throughout the country.
They are practical, not ideologues.
10
Let's hope that Biden does not sweep to victory by winning the black vote in the South which will, of course, then vote for Trump. That may be part of his strategy, but I, a lifelong progressive Democrat, hope the other candidates can chip away at his support. After his second major gaffe of support for Southern Democratic arch-segregationist senators, perhaps black voters will see the real Joe Biden. He's a man who opposed school busing to end public education segregation, allowed the public humiliation of Anita Hill, is not a white Barack Obama and is unwilling to apologize for it. For a party in desperate need of a unifying candidate, Joe Biden, has shown that he's too stubborn and too out-of-touch with the 21st century Democratic Party to lead it to victory anymore than Hillary Clinton was.
22
@Paul Wortman Biden never said he supported segregationist Senator Eastland. He said the exact opposite ....he disagreed with him on most civil rights issues but found a way to work with him nonetheless. I suspect they both benefitted from the relationship. It's the height of hypocrisy for progressives to smear Biden this way when liberal heroes Walter Mondale and Ted Kennedy also actively worked with Sen Eastland on legislation. Kennedy in his memoir called Eastland a friend. Bottom line all of these men were smart enough to realize if they were going to craft and pass good legislation they would need his support. To accomplish anything of value in Congress you have to be willing to reach across the aisle.
9
@Bill BrownTis is pure rationalization. Biden's letters show the exact opposite. He worked with Eastland to oppose school busing. There is no excuse for not apologizing for what was clear a wrong-headed decision then and now. Any black who supposes him is doing a disservice to James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, Michael Schwerner and Medgar Evans--all who were murdered in Mississippi on Eastland's watch fighting and dying for civil rights. If Biden is so squeaky clean where is Barack Obama in rushing to his defense? Or John Lewis?
2
Upon leaving office in 2016, Obama was asked by David Remnick of the New Yorker, who could realistically challenge Trump in 2020. He mentioned two people now running: Harris and Pete Buttigieg.
He did not mention Biden, Sanders, Warren or Booker.
He has not endorsed anyone but it is known that he is not actively behind Biden's candidacy.
16
@simon sez
I have a very hard time believing that 3 years ago Obama was taking about Buttigieg, who at that time would have been 34 years old.
3
It might help to have the voice of Walter Rhett in this outlook. In the meantime, reading these exchanges where 'They' are concerned, is a reminder to some of us that these fellow Americans are not living on a planet elsewhere.
4
"could be determined by black votes"? The last 3 presidential elections have been determined by black votes. (Two w heavy turnouts for Obama, and the last when turnouts in predominantly black districts were way below previous turnout.) This election will be too.
8
Hey. Have fun with Trump 2020.
5
@Mixilplix, yes, he's a real barrel of grabs, gaffs, and grift all right. 2020 sounds like a good time to have some fun with him.
7
Biden is anachronistic; Sanders scares the hell out of many with the word ‘socialism’; and Warren is policy wonk an open book.
Be prepared for the unthinkable: an all female ticket. Warren and Harris. My choice
24
That’s my fave combo so far, although Cory Booker is inspiring and I think he’d be a fine VP candidate.
1
So good to read that South Carolina will not be a coronation for a man who cites segregationists as his model of compromise in the Senate.
Since my state votes so late, I trust the voters of South Carolina to help us pick a real leader for the years ahead, not the so-called good ol' days of the past in the Senate.
19
@avrds
The biggest progress in the past 100 years in racial equality were the civil rights act and voting rights acts in the early 60s. Both totally driven by Lyndon Johnson who worked with the most regressive senators. Kennedy had made no progress up to that point. Working with bad guys gets stuff done.
12
LBJ worked with the bad guys to pass good laws. Biden worked with them because *he* had a segregationist anti bus bill which he wanted *them* to support. That's a huge difference.
5
@ADP . You left out EVERY southern black politician working with segregationists.
Because Trump has offended everyone but his base and has inflamed racial divisions to such an outrageous degree, among other offenses, I think the Democratic nominee will win handily. The key to victory, though, will be choosing a vice presidential nominee from an electorally rich state and then uniting behind the ticket with a consistent message. There are, of course, factors beyond our control: the state of the economy, whether we’re at war, an embarrassing disclosure late in the race. One thing Democrats can’t afford is to have another Jill Stein siphoning votes away from the nominee. The DNC has to do everything in its power to thwart a quixotic candidate from running a vanity campaign.
9
Is that democracy? Just wondering.
9
I guess it's official since the New York Times has finally discovered it: To the shocked surprise of pollsters, pundits, political "professionals," Black voters are not a monolith. Presented with a wide variety of able candidates of various races, genders, ages and political tendencies, individual voters are taking their time to consider who should get their vote. Just like all other voters, they have minds of their own. I believe this Democratic Party primary process, with a much broader and substantial range of options than ever before presented to the American public, promises to bring out the best in the American electorate, dispatch Trump and help us take back our democracy from the cynical money interests in both parties.
30
@Guy Baehr "To the shocked surprise of pollsters, pundits, political 'professionals,' Black voters are not a monolith... are taking their time to consider who should get their vote. Just like all other voters, they have minds of their own."
Exactly! I shook my head when I read the headline. Duh!
I believe the field will begin sorting itself out once we have had a few debates. I have watched the candidates deliver their platform messaging at the event in South Carolina, and it is evident who the real contenders are. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke delivered strong, emotionally resonant speeches. Joe Biden’s remarks were frankly quite disappointing. He raced thorough a 1001 policies and then shockingly chose to invoke Fritz Hollings. Fritz Hollings, really? That will not get the job done with white or black voters. You need to look through the front windshield not the rear view mirror.
12
Bidden, Obama, and the Clintons are essentially plutocrats. That's where their money comes from. When Obama appointed his economic advisory board before his inauguration, it consisted entirely of 17 Wall Street bankers and investors. In 2011 at the height of the economic meltdown Obama announced that since American families needed to tighten their belts, it was time for the government to do so also. That ain't FDR, it's Hoover. I remember Obama out golfing with the CEO of UBS, one of the major criminal enterprises in the economic meltdown.
So, why do so many African Americans support these plutocrats? Think about the Civil War. The Northern forces, the Republicans at the time, were an alliance of big industrial interests and abolitionists. The Democrats, the party of the common man, were an alliance of Southern slave owners and Northern workers.
Because of these strange conflicting dynamics, it is difficult for working class blacks and whites in America to find common cause and to fight together. This will continue to be the central challenge to meaningful change in America and will continue to drive down the living standard of all working Americans.
Go AOC, go Sanders, go Warren. Black people and White people need to recognize the plutocrats and beat them down.
43
This just goes to show that regardless of color we all want the same thing, hope and a better life for ourselves and our children
20
It doesn't really matter at all who wins South Carolina. No Democrat is going to ever win South Carolina in a general election. The black vote is not monolithic and it is not the same in South Carolina as in the MidWest, NorthEast or West.
13
"The Black Vote Is Not Monolithic"?
Says who?
I think when 2020 rolls around we will find out that it is solidly monolithic.
3
@C Nelson
If that's what you think, you clearly don't know many Black people.
2
@N. Smith:
Well, how many Black people do you know?
And how many would I need to know in order to affirm the truth of my comment?
And finally, when has the Black vote not been monolithic in a national election?
Enlighten me.
2
@N. Smith, I agree, he wouldn't because he lives in ultra-white Colorado.
1
Here is my opinion as a 38 year old African American male living in the state of Georgia – Elizabeth Warren with black support can win the Democratic nomination. She is likable and is discussing policies which are relatable; for example, student debt and income inequality. Cory Booker has no chance. He is not seen as an authentic African American and he certainly seems like Obama light in many ways. I know... many white people love Obama, but many African Americans waited on long lines in 2008 and held their breath just to see more of the same. Not again! Indeed, Obama's presidency and Trump's election win inspired blacks to unabashedly require presidential candidates to make campaign promises to African Americans and to keep them. For as out of this world the entire reparations push seems to be, at bottom it is a negotiation ploy to at least finally have programs and money directed “exclusively” to African Americans. To be sure, Obama's legacy will affect Kamala Harris for she too has no chance because Black men don't like her and the last time I checked, black men still vote; Biden will fail because of his attitude; Beto is too pro-Hispanic and that will rub many in the community the wrong way (How about taking care of those of us who are citizens?). As for Mayor Pete, he won't get 1% of the African American vote. I am still confused as to why he thinks he has a chance. Thus, it comes down to Elizabeth Warren - yet, overall, she won't win against Trump. Need I explain why?
16
@Jonathan Yes, you should explain. If the Democrats can maintain unity and inspire their base, Trump and the GOP will be toast. That may not be easy, but it's clearly possible and even likely.
8
@Jonathan
Warren won't appeal to the broad electorate. She's not personally appealing & has many policies that'll be characterized as "socialist." Warren's bizarre "ancestry" claims will be a millstone she'll drag into general election. Trump will crush Warren & she's in danger of losing 40+ states. She might win liberal coastal states but she'll lose the south & all of middle America.
White folks, older folks, working class voters & men will vote NO on Warren.
Please don't saddle us with her. That would likely be a repeat of 1972 & George McGovern's crushing loss to Richard Nixon. Nixon won 67% of the vote. McGovern won 1 state - Massachusetts. The electoral college was Nixon 520, McGovern 17.
McGovern, the progressive antiwar candidate, enchanted the Democratic party w/broad social & economic reforms. A Republican columnist, looking at the McGovern's Democratic platform said "McGovern is for amnesty, abortion & acid. Once middle America figures this out, he's dead."
Warren's policies may appeal to African Americans & progressives, but she'll hand Trump a huge victory, possibly, like McGovern, losing every state but Massachusetts.
Try to imagine an emboldened Trump if he wins in a landslide. That's terrifying.
Warren would be a losing candidate for the Democrats at any point but in 2020, her loss could lead a triumphant Trump to tear democracy to pieces in his
2nd term. Americans will wonder for years why the Democrats foolishly nominated Elizabeth Warren.
5
I suspect this article was massaged to report only the opinions that reflect the media and DNC narrative. A previous article referred to a poll result reporting 50 percent of blacks supported Biden but the details showed that 196 “blacks” were polled by phone. Did we learn nothing from 2016’s polling and near guarantee of Hillary winning?
13
Blacks and all Americans, learn from the teacher Pres. Obama.
Don't play identity politics. If you do your race will be painted into a corner, forever crippled, in need of eternal welfare and handouts.
Don't get me wrong, you can vote democrat but vote for somebody who is in tune with all progressive Americans not a candidate who wants to treat blacks as. special protective class forever weak, crippled, incapable of progress.
If you do you will not participate in the American dream that the great emancipator Lincoln and the great civil rights leader MLK wanted you and all Americans to have.
15
Republicans are aware of all this and have been busily gerrymandering and passing voter suppression laws in districts with significant black populations.
14
So long as the black electorate stays mostly beholden to the mainstream, centrist Democratic Party, they will be taken for granted - except at election time. The fact that, despite all of Biden's racist dog whistles, they still have him as the front runner, mean that the black working class, like the working class generally, will not have any significant representation.
13
@Ed Watters, spoken like a true Californian! I grew up in the South and know a dog whistle when I hear it. I've heard many of them. Biden hasn't uttered any dog whistles. He is a solid candidate because he is a centrist who can get votes the more progressive candidates can't. You completely misunderstood his comments.
1
What SC needs to focus on more than anything is getting Lyndsay Graham out of the Senate!
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@Liz, I live in Vermont and I can't tell you how much I wish that Graham and his partner-in-crime from another southern state - 'ole Mitch, are gone this next election. I have given money through ActBlue to anyone who runs against Susan Collins in Maine and I also contributed to the DitchMitch campaign. And there are a host of others that should get the boot as well. When will voters start to see the writing on the wall?
4
Why is this split a surprise.
We Democrats have taken the black vote for granted for far too long, up to and especially including the 2016 presidential election.
If the Democrats want to have any hope of winning in 2020 the party leaders need to identify a candidate who will appeal to the broad spectrum of voters AND those who feel their needs and concerns were ignored in 2016.
Take no votes for granted. Do the field work. Avoid extreme progressive (socialist) positions that are pushing some Democrats to become independents or, God forbid, vote for Republicans.
That’s how to win in 2020.
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@Mon Ray
"We Democrats have taken the black vote for granted for far too long"
Are you serious? You would think 95% of America is black given the attention they demand and usually get.
12
@Mon Ray, I think black voters understand that the choice between the two parties is a stark one. Regardless of who the candidate might be Democrats are more better for minority voters.
2
As all the pundits say, it's too early to tell who would be the most successful candidate. It's good to know that black voters in South Carolina are looking at the entire field, and that there is such diversity of opinion. I hope the Democratic candidates will duke it out and challenge each other's plans and views. They are going to need the practice when they go up against Trump. They don't need to get dirty, but they do need to be aggressive. Personally, I'm looking for someone who can comprise if others compromise. I'm tired of the my-way-or-the-highway politicians, which is why I'm reserving judgement on Sanders and Warren. Right now, I'm most excited by Mayor Pete. I like his youth. He's a nice contrast to the fossils: Sanders, Biden, Warren, and me (listed oldest to the youngest). I'm 66.
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@JTBence
With a mind like Mitch McConnell in charge of the highway his way, one way road to a one way Dictatorship.
Too bad this isn't a dream, it would be easier to analyze.
4
Mayor Pete is my choice. Love that guy ...
3
@JTBence,
The article is about the Black vote in SC. So far the press has done a good job sitting on the racial problems in the South Bend police Dept. If Black voters find out about what's going on there, they are going to think twice about this nice young man.
2
Young voters tend to vote with their hearts and older voters tend to vote with their heads. For evidence of this one need not go any farther back than 2008. Young voters put Obama in office and older voters elected Trump.
Older Trump supporters used their heads to vote for a guy they would not invite to dinner or trust with their daughters. And that’s what scares me about the next election. Democrats have a habit of eating their own and Republicans, well, they just don’t do that.
So my gut tells me that the Democrats may not get excited about Biden, enough to get him elected. Whereas Republicans will vote for Trump because of tax cuts and immigration.
It should be obvious to any political junkie that most Republicans in Congress think very little of Trump as a person (even some of his followers call him despicable) but are following their cynical instincts because he is their horse.
Democrats, for better or worse, aren’t made that way.
7
@Oliver. Old voters vote with their head. I don't buy that at all. I think you are implying that older voters are reasonable, well informed and steeped in the issues--in short more mature. I'm 83 and i can tell you that a lot of them are dense as hammers and childish in attitudes and demeanor. How can maturity be squared with voting for someone as destructive as Trump is, particularly if you have grand kids that are going to have to live with the long term mess he leaves them. Looks more like a childish temper tantrum.
21
@Oliver,
Not only did this voter, a contemporary in age of Mrs. Clinton, vote for President Obama twice but would have voted a third time for the above, without blinking.
While I understand quite a bit about the different perspective of a Trumpist voter, usually a generational Republican, having listened carefully to quite a few these last two years, this white-haired American would not have voted for our 45th, thirty years ago, let alone in the times we are living.
Nothing is quite as obvious as it appears.
3
I disagree with Sheila Powell. I think America IS ready for a female president. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, remember? It just has to be the right female candidate. Other Western democracies that have elected "first" female heads of states, however, have chosen the more conservative ones. which is depressing but somewhat understandable. Maybe Americans, even white working class American men, are so disgusted and frustrated with male politics that they figure a woman couldn't do any worse. Women are trained to clean us the messes other people make, right?
20
I think the candidate needs to have something exciting and new to offer. It’s not enough just to be the no-more-Trump candidate. The country may be ready for a female, it would be a positive and hopeful message to focus on that didn’t have anything to do with Trump. A lot of people will vote for anyone who opposes Trump and I will too, but it would be nice to have a candidate I would vote for even if Trump were not awful.
7
@abigail49
Yeah maybe but remember that Hillary lost the election ever though she was widely praised as "the most experienced person ever to run for president." Hillary had been First Lady, N.Y. Senator & was Obama's Secretary of State who participated in the raid that killed Bin Laden. Hillary had some real foreign policy experience. Nothing about Warren will make men & working class voters think Elizabeth Warren should be Commander in Chief of the military. With what experience? Warren has spent her life as a progressive academic focused on economic & social policies. Warren has far fewer legitimate credentials than Hillary did - and Hillary proved easy to beat.
I'd also like to see a woman president. But beyond that desire is the knowledge that we hurt that cause every time we nominate a woman who can't win the election. Warren is much less electable than HRC- and Hillary's loss has set us back years, if not worse.
If we aren't careful, we're likely to see Nikki Haley become the first woman president...
3
Good story. It’s nice to see reporting including residents of the rural black community. Now if only the candidates would do the same
20
The Times makes it sound like the race stretching beyond Super Tuesday is a bad thing. It would be the best thing for the party and the country. Letting everyone have a say has a better chance of finding the candidate most acceptable to the most people.
25
Gee-golly-wiz; Who could imagine the "Black Vote" wasn't a monolith; or there was such a creature as "The Black Vote; the White Vote, The Asian Vote..."
Unfortunately, as in most complex concepts, it is too easy to lump every one who bears a similar appearance into one neat category, then wonder why said humans don't act based on assumptions: Trying to ferret out the "Black Vote" by one Fish-Fry in South Carolina is about as nifty as trying to discern the buying habits of a few million people based on a survey on 20; simply does not work.
This revelation is not news to black people; never has been. I am sometimes asked about The African-American Community. My go-to answer is always, "Please tell me which freeway do I take to get there."
23
Currently, Biden draws 50% of African American voters in South Carolina, Sanders draws 10% and Warren 4%, according to recent polls cited in this very article and yet the entire piece is (anecdotally) about how these voters are torn between Biden and Warren - as if Sanders is automatically to be discounted. I'm noticing a similar trend in the establishment media, particularly from the gatekeeers on the left. My theory is that the satisfied temperment of otherwise socially progressive white collar professionals can not conceive of the need for a systemic challenge to the current status quo, which after all, has worked out well for them despite the accelerating economic stratification of the Great Recession. Sanders appeal to blue collar workers (the same voters that once voted Obama and now have gravitated to Trum) makes him suspect to the reasonably well off and, though they won't admit it to themselves, a threat, and so, necessarily, he is dismissed outright.
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@Joshua Wick
Warren would offer "a systemic challenge to the current status quo" and is gaining in polls; perhaps that's why reporters found voters engaging with her. I was with Bernie in '16 so no disrespect intended.
I found this piece such a refreshing change--nuanced and well-sourced, seeming in touch with what's actually happening, and refraining from the familiar one-candidate-has-a-lock or other premature conclusions.
46
@Joshua Wick,
Of particular interest to this voter was Ms. Powell's opinion "America is still not ready yet for a female," for I also believe this is true, unfortunate as this may be. Based on merit, however, the role of a woman in the capacity of first vice-president is gaining in strength. Mr. Biden and Ms. Abrams/or Ms. Warren on the ticket.
2
Great reporting. I hope the Times will continue to report on voter concerns and the policy differences between candidates, rather than focusing on the horse race.
Please keep it up.
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@Michael Haddon
Oh yikes. This IS a horse-race article starting with the headline(s).
5
Minority voters are an area where Progressives are very weak because most have not addressed these concerns sufficiently. Political as it may be, we have a long way to go, baby. Plutocracy has many faces:
The duplicity of demanding compassionate legislation for Opioid addicts, since it affects suburban areas vs. decades of ostracizing and imprisoning crack addicts and marijuana possessors.
Immigration is closed for dark people, but open for the parents of elites like Melania.
The jails are full of the poor and oppressed in for bouncing checks and stealing a few bucks, while white collar thieves like Trump and Manafort get compassion and are portrayed as victims.
Trump has 7 bankruptcies shed on the backs of taxpayers, while the poor cannot even get a decent, safe apartment with electricity after their financial woes.
These are just a few ways to describe the USA that they live in.
77
The headline cracked me up - reminded me of the Key & Peele sketch about black republicans, where all the speakers go to the podium and declare, “we are not a monolith”.
Anyways. This is a refreshing development.
7
Biden should apologize to black women for a moment in addressing a black woman at an event in North Carolina.
At the poor people's campaign forum Biden lost what little appeal I had for him when he approached Joy Reed, MSNBC, a black woman, in such an odd & condescending manner when she demonstrated her intelligence with a complex question. It was as if he wanted to assert dominance standing over the questioner and it was, barring all the possible descriptions, odd, even creepy.
It was obvious, one of "the good old boys" space had to be reclaimed.
22
@s.whether
Biden was also pushy & domineering in his Saturday interview with Al Sharpton on MSNBC, where he overlooked many of Sharpton's questions, seemingly irritated at being politely asked to explain some issues.
There were times he responded to Sharpton like he though Sharpton was an idiot. Biden also had a bizarre disconnected rant about how he was once the only white lifeguard among black men in a Delaware town where the black men, not knowing any white people, asked Biden to tell them what white people are like. Biden said they asked him "what about A, B, C & D?" Lots of this anecdote made no sense at all.. This was Biden's example of how he can't possibly be insensitive to the concerns of African Americans - because these lifeguards wanted Biden to 'school' them about white people. The whole interview left me weirded out. Sharpton had harsh words for Biden
an hour later, saying Biden was "unimpressive.' He was right. John Heilemann said he thought by now Biden would have some "crisp, clean, clear things to say" about how he relates to the African American community following his dustup with Booker. But according to Heilemann, Biden again blew it, seemed unprepared & unfocused.
3
Like all Americans certain that the foremost danger to our democracy is not North korea or Iran but Donald Trump, we will vote for the candidate that we feel can beat him.
I personally think that a ticket with Kamala Harris for President and Warren for Vice - President would terrify Trump. Facing of against two formidable women would be his worst nightmare.
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@H.A. Hyde
We're not trying to terrify Trump. (He is already terrified that he'll go to prison when he leaves office.)
We are trying to convince his voters that they will be better off under a Democratic president -- and Congress.
14
@H.A. Hyde. Really? Terrified of Kamala Harris. LOL. He will be terrified right into the White House for 4 more years.
It's so very heartening to see the quality of the candidates that the people of South Carolina have to choose from.
I would respectfully ask that the voters become familiar with Mayor Pete. He's now in South Bend dealing with one of the more unsavoury aspects of race relations in this country; the shooting of a black man by the police force.
If this tragic event can have a side benefit, it's that voters can see how candidates deal with a real issue - a real humanitarian issue - in real time.
May God be with you, Mayor Pete, as you work through this.
,
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@Benjo
Only partially accurate.
Sen. Sanders won more young (18-30)POC votes (and the young in general) than HRC 'n Trump combined last primary.
https://www.politifact.com/vermont/statements/2019/mar/15/bernie-sanders/did-sanders-get-more-primary-votes-young-minoritie/
2
@Benjo
Mayor Pete is not popular with black people because he has done nothing to investigate accusations of anti-black racism in the SB Police Department, and he razed black people's homes against the recommendations of the City Council and the wishes of the home owners who needed additional time to repair their homes. The dislike of him has nothing to do with his sexuality.
Bernie has offered nothing of benefit to black people beyond saying he marched with MLK. That was half a century ago, why should blacks vote for him now? He can't answer that. Actually none of the candidates can answer that question. Instead of putting the burden on those running for office to make the case of why black people should vote for them, many find it easy and fun to accuse blacks of being anti-Semitic and homophobic. Nice.
South Carolina is not the litmus test on Joe Biden for the majority of us black voters.
The younger black voters that I’ve spoken to are not big on Biden, feeling that he is just another old white guy running for POTUS, who has yet to address young black voters concerns. Their words, not mine. I’m about to hit 75 In a couple of months and truthfully, I am over Old anyone’s running for President who are in their 70’s, not fully understanding and addressing black
Americans Many unresolved concerns.
I’d vote for a cactus over trump!
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@Ronald Dennis
South Carolina is not the litmus test for any Democrat. Unfortunately, Democrats trying to harvest black votes tend to forget black Americans are spread throughout the U.S. But I understand; Democrats are looking at Electoral Votes, not the popular vote. In 2016, I was able to go right into an outdoor venue and hear Bernie Sanders speak; with minimal security in California. I don't recall Hillary bothering to come- if she did, it certainly was not for the masses.
But likewise, I too will vote for a cactus over Trump.
11
@Ronald Dennis Spot on! I am "an old white lady" on exactly the same page as you!
3
Warren and Sanders are offering the change that Obama said he would bring.
Biden told donors that things wouldn't change if he is elected.
But people count on Biden as most likely to beat Trump and they are desperate to beat Trump.
Everyone was so sure that Clinton would beat Trump too.
I say go for Warren. Go for it! Listen to the young people.
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@kj
One of the reasons why everyone was so sure Clinton would be Trump is because after finally electing an African-American President for two terms, no one wanted to believe that people would vote a racist into the White House.
It's fine to listen to the young people, but make your own decision in the end.
10
Sooner or later all the Democratic candidates running after the Black vote are going to realize it's not that easy because it is by no means a one-size-fits-all proposition, and after years of being left-out and disenfranchised, they're looking very closely at what's being said, who's saying it and what's getting done in the end. Especially now, with an unrepentant white supremacist and racist like Donald Trump in the White House.
And while Joe Biden may be enjoying a momentary lead in the polls largely due to name recognition and his tenure with the country's first African-American president, it's no guarantee that it'll stay that way -- particularly with the younger or more progressive voters who want the Democratic party to swing more to the left. But even that is uncertain as Bernie Sanders found out in 2016 when South Carolina's Black voters handed him a rousing defeat.
Add to that the fact that Corey Booker and Kamala Harris may also find out that being Black doesn't necessarily translate into more votes, and it's a real toss-up.
In short, it's going to take more than fried fish with hot sauce to connect with a community that not only votes, but always tends to vote solidly Democratic.
30
@N. Smith
Indeed. Southern Blacks are no more a monolith than East Coast, West Coast or Midwest Blacks. That is the problem with candidates and polls; missing the big picture:
Economic stability, job growth, family issues, concerns for our children, educational opportunities, community investment, housing, retirement and health issues- in essence everything everyone else is concerned about along with the prevailing issues of systemic inequality and equal justice.
And...fried cat fish and buffalo-fish with hot sauce isn't everyone's fish du jour.
13
@N. Smith, you have some good points--but may be wrong in supposing that the democratic candidates know less than you do...
4