I read many of the comments here and the one standout for me is the fact that the people who own Teslas all seriously love their car! I couldn’t find any negatives from the owners. That says a lot - to me, anyway.
28
Our country should be encouraging innovation on all fronts, not squelching it. Purposefully ignoring the Tesla success story and focusing on the sky falling is discouraging it. We need hydrogen cell technology cars too.
Don't drink the Koch koolaid!
10
As soon as we get a Democrat in the White House Tesla's fortunes will pivot 180. Because yes, governments are supposed to have environmental policy. Now I am sure those same wall street king pins are trying to prevent that too. Meanwhile, the lifting of those 60 satélites was pretty interesting. Musk is the number one man to watch, no matter what. Oh, and it's not the car industry we are talking about, it's transportation and energy. Sorry for moving the goal post.
5
Musk has a recurring problem with fires in Model S Teslas.
https://electrek.co/2019/06/01/tesla-fire-supercharger/
This is the 4th model S to catch fire while at a fast charging station. And the fire crews had to go through extra ordinary procedures to squelch the fire and prevent a restart (a real and growing problem with car battery packs).
There was a model S in a collision on the freeway in the bay area last year.. and the fire crews had extreme difficulty putting out the fire from the battery pack there too.
Electric vehicles are most likely the wave of the future in automobiles... but they do bring their own issues and hazards.
@Chuck
No gas car has ever caught fire .
8
@Maria LeBlanc
ICE vehicles do catch on fire more than EVs, but in the world of EVs the model S has proven to be more flammable than the rest of the EV's.
1
A news article about what Tesla has achieved and what its customers say about it is more important than what Wall
Street pundits say about Tesla. Wall Street will turn on a dime. Customers decide the future of a company, not Wall Street. So it has been with most innovations. Information about innovation and new options for consumers is more beneficial to NYTimes readers than Wall Street pronouncements. Aren’t they the folks that ruined our economy a decade ago? Now they want to throttle Tesla for not providing near-term profits. If they do, China will be delighted because it has a long-term support for its innovators. It will dominate the EV market — remember what Japan did to US auto industry a few decades ago? Wall Street is one of the main reasons why American solar panel industry is so much behind China’s. It is also a major force behind the destruction of America manufacturing industry. For near-term profits, Wall
Street will do anything, even ruin our own economy and make rich richer.
10
In addition to being a Sailor, I am also a car guy. I do expect my next car to be electric. Whether or not it is a Tesla, I don’t know. But the paradigm has been changed.
12
Tesla has been a loser since it was created, and it has a dismal future.
The weak board of directors is controlled by an irresponsible and, for me, an unbelievable founder and CEO who is all about Elon Musk. The guy doesn't seem to believe in ethics, the rule of law, his employees or his customers.
That doesn't bother way too many portfolio managers for pension funds, mutual funds and foundations that own Tesla stock.
At some point the beneficiaries of those institutional investors will sue them for violating their fiduciary obligations to make smart, responsible investments in real businesses.
Tesla's financials are those of a $10 stock. But stock groupies who dream of another Amazon or Apple have been buying and holding the stock regardless. Think bitcoins, crypto currencies, gold and silver groupies.
They trade on faith and fantasy, not facts, which, for Tesla, are ugly.
Tesla's technology is as easy to copy and match as anything you find in traditional autos and other vehicles. Ideas are great, but execution counts. Tesla never has executed and never will execute its founder's vision.
If Tesla survives as a small niche player owned by China, I think it will be a miracle.
I don't own any short or long positions in Tesla stock and have only tiny positions in a couple of its competitors. This is for readers' information only and is not meant to be trading advice.
12
Tesla 'killers' could not do it. Next best is Wallstreet analysts.
3
@maria Leblanc. A little more than 100 years ago, there were more electric cars than gas or steam, especially in the cities where recharging was easy. Out in the boonies, power lines were scarce. Edison, in fact, developed a better battery just for these cars. Like Lithium-ion, it was too expensive. Turn of the century electrics even had good range. The Tesla is just a reintroduction of what was a sensible product long, long ago. Soon, someone is going to notice that trains on steel rails are the greenest, safest mode of transportation....
7
These are the same guys who pumped high risk mortgage backed securities and shorted them at the same time. Ask who their big clients are and you will know why the chorus against Tesla. For they know, if Tesla survives this round, a lot of their clients will be in serious, serious trouble. Until now, they thought they were laughing at golf carts.
8
The whole auto industry is in a decline. The YOY sales of cars in the US are down 10% and light truck/SUV sales are completely flat. Why I this? The main reason is that between government standards and a commitment to quality on the part of most automotive manufacturers, cars are lasting a long time. Beyond this is the reticence on the part of buyers caused by the sea transition occurring from ICEVs to battery EVs. No one wants to buy a gas hog and then find out that a comparable BEV is hitting the market in a few months. Tesla is the market leader and will survive the present circumstances. But will Daimler, BMW, Toyota, Ford, etc. survive? That's the real question.
6
The EV tax credits never should have had quotas per manufacturer. This is the wrong incentive. The quota should have been based on number of EVs, period, no matter the manufacturer. And as it turned out, why would we want our tax dollars helping foreign automakers over a born-and-bred American company, Tesla?
Anyway, I own a Model 3, best car I've ever driven by a country mile, and I'll never go back to gas. I'll be surprised if Tesla fails, simply because their product is superb. We'll see.
16
Tesla has some problems, and Musk is certainly a loose cannon, but all I can say is: don't knock it 'til you drive it. The Model 3 is a great value and my impression is that Tesla's EV offerings are considerably better than present competition. All of the bearish reports on Tesla seem to ignore altogether the quality of the product. In any case, whether it's a Model S/X/3, Leaf, Bolt, or other, I urge everyone to never buy an internal combustion engine powered automobile again.
7
@Bleu Falcon
Take good care of your Model 3, because in 4 years it will likely be essentially worthless as all the other auto makers come on line with various electric and hybrid vechicles.. and Tesla folds shop because it simply cannot compete on a field where there is actual competition.
Tesla had the field to itself for years.. but that era has come and gone.. so Elon can no longer ride the mythology of his cars being the best thing since sliced bread.
If Tesla is going to survive the next decade.. it will be once again, low volume specialty performance vehicles... which is how it all began. Tesla will be unable to compete against the big auto makers for a range of reasons... and Elon's ego is going to take a beating as he walks away from Tesla and redoubles his attention on Space-X.
2
Chuck, before you knock it, go for a test drive. Tesla offers a huge improvement in driving features above and beyond the battery. I don't see Detroit catching up any time soon.
4
@Chuck
I will certainly be disappointed if the car is worthless in 4 years, and I welcome robust competition in the EV market--the sooner, the better. I chose what I felt was the best car I can get to drive today. Reliability is, admittedly, one of my greater concerns with a car model that hasn't been on the road in great numbers for very long, but I was willing to take that risk. Even if Tesla folds shop I think there will be businesses wiling to service them, and I dare hope that the car runs for a very long time with a fraction of the maintenance required for an ICE. I'll take good care of it.
2
As much as I would like to see electric car companies in general succeed, I can’t get behind supporting Tesla or Elon Musk.
Elon is a complete jerk. Numerous media articles have described the horrible way he treats employees. I’m not inclined to support a company run by him.
Also, Tesla’s battery capacity is handled in a near fraudulent way. Leading up to some recent hurricanes, to allow drivers in the storm paths to evacuate Tesla had temporarily unlocked additional battery capacity through software. So their cars and batteries CAN go farther, but customers have to pay more for the full range of the vehicle they bought. Tesla is throttling their hardware to extract more money. This is not a case of charging more for a costlier feature. The existing batteries can clearly go farther since range can so easily be remotely unlocked. This would be like Ford rigging their carburetors to yield less MPG unless you pay for an upgraded package.
A co-worker’s husband owns a Tesla. His battery is yielding less and less range over time. Tesla refuses to do anything about it. I’m not going to buy a car that is designed like this.
5
@Steve Funny how the people knocking the car on quality are always the ones who've never driven it. Before you believe this guy, have a look at all the love on this thread from the actual owners.
2
@Steve
Steve- all rechargeable batteries lose capacity over time. That's undeniable, from your nanny cam to your Tesla.
The "range change" you mention is a built in nuance to the cars. Yes, they CAN charge more, but in doing so build up heat and lessen the life of the battery. So it's limited. It makes long term sense for the car.
Very few Tesla owners complain of the limited range- my 2013 S can still go 230 miles on a full charge. How often, honestly, do you need to drive further than that?
Additionally, I'd buy an electric car, Tesla or otherwise (used to drive a LEAF) simply because it's the right thing to do for the environment. I would do so even if everything you said was true, and supporting automakers who have done next to nothing to address global warming is simply unconscionable.
Funny, the analogy you use of Ford rigging a carburetor. They've known about the downsides of ICE's for years, and have rigged the whole system so that we keep buying them.
1
@Peter Kalmus
He happens to be correct about the batteries though. and sorry.. but driving a Tesla will in no way change this basic fact of physics and chemistry.
These lithium Ion packs are great... but like all hi tech battery technology.. they degrade over time and for a vehicle.. that means lower miles per charge over time. Most EV manufacturers are required to offer 8yr/100K or 10yr/100K warranties for the batteries... but that does not require the battery pack to operate at 100% capacity under warranty... so a 5 year old battery pack will likely be lucky to give the driver 70% of original miles per charge when new.
2
The hype economy collides with reality.
GM builds a very competent EV in the Bolt, and they sit on the dealer lot (even with the federal subsidy), but Elon makes it eXciting! S3xy even!
As long as the hype keeps coming, deadline after missed deadline, promise after missed promise, the capital kept flowing, and the hype kept coming. No more capital, no more hype. Without hype, the company is worthless.
Tesla isn't really good at making cars, and those that are good at making cars make 5% profit margins. It never added up for me.
Just hope Elon doesn't quit, or something else happen in the near term, or the company is truly doomed.
3
@Tom Stoltz
Elon's real contribution to the EV industry will end up being that he moved the cost per mile of the battery packs downward to the point where the technology became cost effective for lower price point vehicles.
There is a reason all the big auto companies are rolling with EV beggining 2020 and onward ---> they waited for the battery technology in volume production to move down the price per mile curve. This is the one aspect of EVs where the big auto companies waited and leveraged Teslas move into the market at the higher end of vehicle features and pricing.
2
@Chuck
I have looked at the tear-down of the Model S pack, and the Chevy Bolt Pack. Tesla is using Panasonic 18650 cells. I don't see the fundamental technology to make EVs affordable -
Rather, sell a product at above market rates, while losing money, and giving away electricity for free. That seems like hype, not innovation.
2
You Tesla proponents are misguided at best: if you care about "moving off gas", you'd be driving the smallest e-car with just the range to do your typical commute, not a 400-hp equivalent luxury machine with 500 kg of Li ion cells to whip your head against your headrest every time you accelerate off a red light. None of you would consider the the Microlino (google it)? Why not?
4
@wlieu They don't want to die in a crash?
1
@wlieu
This is essentially correct analysis. Most Tesla owners are buying for the hype of the brand and the fact that Musk was smart enough to know he had to work the luxury performance end of the market to make it with Tesla in it's formative years.
Most vehicle owners simply don't need a Tesla, nor the expense it represents. In fact.. most commuters would do better with some of the newer hybrids being produced by the big automakers for their daily driving needs.
While there will always be some market for performance cars, even if they are EVs.... it remains to be seen if Tesla can hold that particular niche in the market... considering that Audi, Mercedes, and Volvo have targeted that segment of the market in the coming years.
3
@wlieu if you care about "moving off gas," you buy an EV.
If you're determined to squeeze the absolute maximum m/wH out of your vehicle, you might consider a Microlino. If you enjoy having a nice car that's enjoyable and comfortable, you might consider a Tesla instead. And you might put a solar array on your roof to power it. There are a number of decision factors; it's not a black/white, all/nothing proposition. But sure: drive the smallest, most energy efficient care and you get the most "green points"--setting aside how you power it, at least. How well that car would protect you from a collision is another matter.
I did as you suggested and google Microlino, and as far as I can expediently determine, they won't arrive in the US this year.
Take the subsidies for big oil and the extraordinary environmental cost of dirty ICE. Split the real cost between gasoline and cars. Tesla is a steal that is getting cheaper by the day, getting smarter by the day and getting better by the day.
Talk to Tesla executives. Best engineers and MBAs apply in droves, even today. Wall St. will never fully understand those who believe in making the world a better place when they can make so much more money developing another complex derivative the world so badly needs.
6
@KS
Dear KS,
Never buy a car built by an MBA.
2
@Dave Kerr
Nor do the analysis by an MBA -:)
1
Tesla's biggest problem is Elon Musk. Yes, he's a visionary, and he deserves tremendous credit for getting Tesla this far. But he's not a mature CEO capable of managing an automobile manufacturer at scale. When he declares that he's closing his dealership network, then reverses himself within a week and announces price cuts instead, it shows that he is not thinking clearly through all the implications of big changes in a complex organization. He's acting like an entrepreneur.
His passion alone is not enough to run the business. The board should bring in a senior CEO, with Musk staying on as chairman but delegating operational responsibility. And if Musk wants Tesla to succeed, he cannot also run Space X and other ventures.
10
@Ken L
Absolutely agree with you on this.
The funny thing is... the avid Tesla owners bought the story Musk has peddled, without actually looking at the long term prospects of the brand continuing to be viable in the market.
As soon as the next recession hits... Tesla is toast, because the first thing to get cut from the household budget are large debt based expenses like autos. And we are most likely going to see one in the next 24 months. By the way... Musk knows this too.. and that is why he is desperately trying to pivot to a battery producer rather then a car producers, as well as redoubling his efforts to grow Space-X (where he has little actual competition). Personally, I think the Chinese are going to eat his lunch in the EV battery market.. but with Space-X.. he is in his sweet spot (a no competition expensive niche market).
1
This is a bad article.
1) It purports to be two sided, but really only presents the negative arguments.
2) "Mr. Musk said that the cash infusion gave Tesla only 10 months to become profitable at the rate it was burning through cash" - This is misleading, there is no expectation for the cash burn to continue at the rate of that quarter. Shouldn't all CEOs be vigilant about expense? I'd be worried about any company that doesn't care about their expenses.
3)" Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley said that in a worst-case scenario the stock could tumble to $10". That's wrong. In the worst case it could tumble to $0, just like every other stock that is traded. On the other hand, Adam Jonas set a price target of $240. Which means he thinks the most likely scenario is that the stock price will hit around $240. No doubt its a high volatility stock, but the $10 number is just a headline grabber.
4) "The company has a long history of disappointing Wall Street and falling short of its own forecasts...". The company also has a long history of shocking Wall Street and the World with its accomplishments.
27
@MC
One word my friend ---> Recession.
As soon as the next recession hits..... Tesla will be unable to refresh it's debt load, much less harvest more cash.. and will burn cash until it folds or is bought up for parts and IP. By the way.. I do believe Musk's long term plan is to unload Tesla after he has milked it for all he can get from it (as he has done with previous businesses).
Looking back at Amazon 10 yrs, analysts were pretty much saying the same thing; money loser, will fold, not profitable, can't beat brick and mortar stores, etc.
I am at a loss as to why Wall Street and the media are predicting or wantingTesla's demise because they had a bad first quarter in 2019. The entire auto industry saw a slump in sales in Q1, yet Tesla's Model 3 sales beat out all their direct competitors(Audi A4, BMW 3 series and Mercedes C class).
It sure feels like there are industries and short sellers trying to kill something that is trying to do good.
How long did it it take for AMAZON, to become profitable?
The answer is 14 years and Amazon, while amazing and convenient, makes nothing so essential that if it disappeared would stop humanity from thriving. Yeah, I know we might all die without Netflix - AWS delivers Netflix.
Tesla is one tech company we should support as consumers and investors. The vision is clear and Tesla has made so many right moves:
1.They built a battery factory to insure they can build the cars they've designed. Audi has had trouble getting batteries for their E-TRON SUV.
2. They are building out a charging infrastructure
3. Tesla has the technical advantage over all their competitors for drivetrain,battery and they continue to invest and innovate.
4.Over the air software updates improve their cars almost instantly.
5. Teslas are the safest cars NHTSA has ever tested/ crashed.
So should Wall Street play along with Trump and short change humanity's future or should they base their decisions on long term benefits to society?
31
@Toren Orzeck
Wow... you definitely drank the cool aid served by Elon here.
The problem here is all your bullet points are essentially false and represent Tesla marketing spin.
The reason investment analysts are souring on Tesla is the same reason they sour on many companies --> unsustainable business model that is insufficiently capitalized to stay afloat long enough to succeed as a business. It's not some grand conspiracy by Wall Street here... they are simply crunching the numbers and analyzing the results and reporting them. That is their job... to report to the wider investment community the risks/upsides of any company and it's stock valuation.
There is a reason Musk has told his work force that Tesla must now shift into drastic cost cutting measures in it's operations, including layoffs. He lacks the capital depth to continue operations at the lower end of the EV market. As long as he kept operations volumes small and focused on $100K vehicles.. he could turn a profit. But he reinvested those profits to fund the design and production of increasingly lower priced vehicles.. and that is simply a market where he cannot compete against Big Auto.
4
Not really. I mean you seem terribly nieve. Wall Street knows very little. They have the collective brain power of a chart. Their biggest invention was the mortgage backed security. They are a bunch of speculators and salesmen. A whole bunch of them are on the other side of this bet. And the press does a fair amount of their bidding. Amazon blew off Wall Street, but Bezos was essentially an insider. He was cut a lot of slack. Musk is challenging the oil industry - yes, those guys are not excited about electric cars and would really like to see this project in the hands of Ford or some other relic. He should expect rough seas. At the end of the day, he still has the best product. With the current rate of disruption, there are a lot of companies that will not be around in 10 years. Tesla's odds are rather decent. His R&D and his software are ten years ahead of the competition. The Germans are desperate to catch up. They know how Europe is breaking on green issues. Tesla would have buyers in China too so the value has to be risk adjusted. Tesla never goes below 100 anytime in the next 5 years. But trades up if a Democrat replaces Lord Trump.
2
car ownership is going to become a niche market...regardless of who manufactures it.
automobiles as talismans, fetishes and testosterone replacement therapy are so 20th century.
3
Tesla does not buy advertising and Tesla has been producing cars for about ten years. They are the only auto company actually making American cars in America and paying American workers American wages. The current round of sniping by the mass media perhaps can be attributed more to the fact that many writers and such generally look down on American manufacturers. The fact is the Tesla car (even the less expensive model) is far beyond anything so called legacy auto makers are producing. And Tesla is continuing to innovate. Current owners have had several upgrades the past year - mostly at no additional cost. Currently, Tesla only has one factory in the US - they need more factories both in the US and abroad - and I hope they do this soon.
78
@Maureen
This article fails to address Tesla’s most troubling conundrum in its business model-delivery.
The legacy auto makers long ago franchised their dealerships, meaning that they need only deliver vehicles to dealers. Then anybody can walk into a dealer, and drive away with a car. You can’t do that with Tesla, and Tesla itself is responsible for delivery to the customer, meaning that a buyer in NY has to wait for Tesla to get the car from Fremont, CA some 2500 miles to NY. Tesla’s absence of good planning was amply demonstrated by Elon Musk’s suggestion that Tesla owners volunteer to drive cars to new buyers. So if I buy one, I might need to trust a stranger to drive it 2500 miles to me? In what world is THAT happening?
4
@Paul
Yes, there's no middleman in there situation Paul. That's why we pay so much for medical care in this country too.......the insurance companies don't do a lot of doctoring do they?
3
@Maureen
Talk to the workers at the Fremont plant and you would find a different narrative regarding American jobs. Compared to other auto factories.. they are under paid and suffer under the hands of chaotic management. Now they are facing layoffs as Musk tries to turn down his expense faucet.
As for innovation by Tesla.. that has largely stopped in the last 3 years. They are reusing their technology in additional vehicles.. with no real new innovation... just styling changes. Other car companies will do a complete redesign and release of a vehicle model ever 5 years. Musk does not so.. because he can't really fund it... so over time.. Tesla technology and features will be eclipsed by newer brands from other car companies who actually know how to sustain a model and brand over decades.. not years.
3
Tesla is breaking the entire business model in a business that has been stuck in it's ways for a very long time. I personally think what scares wall street and the other automakers more than the electric capabilities and the self driving, is the revolutionary way these cars are being marketed, sold and repaired. Tesla is doing away with the traditional car dealership entirely.
Find another industry so solely reliant on the brick and mortar store front model. Tesla is trying to become the first manufacturer to break that mold. It's going to take time, but their business model is the way of the future and the industry as a whole, since we've seen this shift in virtually every other major industry already.
Car sales are vastly different today then even 5 years ago. The consumer walks into a dealer knowing already what they want, the era of the car salesman is all but over, Tesla seems to be embracing that fact. Maybe they won't be around to see it, but they are going to be at the very least the driving force that brings car sales into the 21st century.
55
@Dan
And owners are facing real challenges when their Tesla breaks and they need easy access to a dealership for authorized repairs. Unless you live in a major urban hub where Tesla has a strong selling presence.. you are in trouble here.
So.. NO... if anything the dealership model is even more important today... with the growing complexity of modern vehicles. Dealerships is where the connection between auto maker and auto seller provides a leverage advantage to the buyer with these complex and highly electronic new motor vehicles on the roads these days.
It is true that the car selling business has been altered drastically over the years.. but Tesla had very little to do with that. Dealerships have evolved in selling largely due to pressures of the internet enabling buyers to sit at home and play one dealer off against another on pricing before they ever set foot in the showroom to actually test drive and pick out a vehicle.
8
@Chuck Do you work for a dealership? Your assessment of their value is highly suspect. I have a poor man's Tesla (Nissan Leaf) with dealerships everywhere. Never needed a single one in 5 years (and counting). Like it or not,EVs are awesome and literally have more than a thousand less moving parts than an antiquated internal combustion engine vehicle. I'd be scared if I were traditional dealership too. Buggy whip, anyone?
13
@JBWilson
"Buggy whip, anyone?"
I'll bet that seems childish even to you. But please don't look up YouTube videos of Tesla owners complaining about fender-bender repairs or waiting on parts. Oops - I forgot that Teslas will never need parts.
4
I just returned from a couple weeks in Germany which included tours at BMW and VW. Competition may be the biggest Tesla threat. BMW will bring a luxury electric car in the fall. VW expects 40% of its cars to be electric by 2023. Both of these German giants have scale and distribution. Other international car companies are entering the electric road. At every level from luxury, innovation, and price, global auto companies will compete. When consumers have choices, Tesla's magic will likely fade.
40
@Mark Weber Several large car companies have been talking for some time about electric vehicles. I doubt their intent is to produce at mass quantities. I suspect they will produce at very minimal quantities that mean the price can never come down. Just like GM, Ford and others. It's a PR stunt to them, not something they will do in a meaningful way.
6
@Chris
BMW & VW have collaborated on a high speed charging station technology that has surpassed Tesla’s for fast charging. They are deadly serious about getting into, and dominating, the electric car market.
Unlike other manufacturers, they are in a country that takes tackling climate change seriously.
Don’t whistle past the graveyard, bub.
4
@Paul I own a Tesla and like your comment "Unlike other manufacturers, they are in a country that takes tackling climate change seriously", but unfortunately we do not live in a country that takes it seriously...yet.
3
I own a Tesla and I love it. Everyone who rides in my car loves it. The issue that Tesla faces is that their vehicles are expensive and most consumers can't justify spending upwards of $50,000 on a car. The price of the technology needs to drop so that more people can actually afford to move off of their gas-powered cars.
88
@Berlin Exile
Consumer Reports on Tesla:
All three models (3, S, and X) get a rating of poor on reliability.
The least expensive of the models, the 3, gets an overall score of 65. "The ride is very stiff and choppy".
Compare that with the Toyota Prius : overall score of 78, excellent reliability, and half the price of Tesla model 3.
Yes, I do know the Prius is not fully electric.
4
@G.S. The Model S got the highest score of any car ever tested by Consumer Reports. The Model 3, S, and X also scored the safest cars ever tested by the NHTSA.
The Prius is a fine car, but it's also not in the same class as the 3. It's like comparing a BMW 3 series to a Toyota: You're not going to get the same level of performance (the 3 is super fast), you're missing out on the zero-maintenance lifestyle, the "never go to the gas station" lifestyle. And you're polluting more.
Too much attention paid to the minor differences between cars and not enough to the major ones that make you re-think what it's like to own a car. Go test-drive one and see for yourself.
28
@Ryan
You are cherry picking your data to support your pro Tesla Narrative here.
While it is true the Model S got great early reviews by CR... the model has not done so well over time with CR. CR used to worship Tesla... and now does not recommend their cars anymore.
The Times coverage of Tesla echoes the negative voices backed by big oil, car dealers and fossil car manufacturers. There is rarely positive reporting, this article is one example. What about the $35,000 Model 3 production beginning in China? What about the fact that Tesla is the biggest selling car in Norway, surpassing Mercedes and BMW? What about the fact that Model 3 is outselling BMW 3 series in the US? What about a car that gets the equivalent of over 100 miles per gallon?. The Times writes as though it is concerned with the climate crisis, but repeats big oil's and Wall Street's mantras against the one company moving the world towards zero emission transportation! I own a Tesla so I know the experience is totally positive while I read claims the car is subpar. I have also owned some of the brands I mentioned above and Tesla is superior by a huge mile. Tesla is a great American success story despite predictions (since the company was founded) that it's products would be impossible to make. Model 3 exists and a truck is coming .
122
@Maria LeBlanc
The issue isn't the product. It's the cost and the customers. It looks increasingly like they've sold most of the Model 3s that they can, and that's not external negativity speaking. That's Tesla changing their pricing and product mix every couple weeks and Musk essentially announcing to the world that he's going to look at every dollar spent.
So, sure, don't listen to 'Big Oil', listen to what Musk is actually telling you about demand and costs. If it wasn't an issue, he wouldn't treat it like one.
10
@mjw They have sold all the cars they can? They just started selling in the UK and Australia. They will make and sell locally in China by year and. This quarter expectations are for a record high. This with subsidies at half of 7500. Anyone who drives the car loves it. Best EV technology by far. This is Apple all over again. First it was Nokia, then Sony, then Microsoft, Google so on and so forth
BMW, Audi will not affect Tesla sales in fact will help as more buyers become aware of EVs and compare features against Tesla.
Rumors of Tesla’s death have been greatly exaggerated, many times already.
32
@Amish
"This is Apple all over again."
Hilarious.
4
Tesla without government perks for buyers would be in worse condition than their current predicament. All electric just is not as efficient as hybrids.
@DENOTE MORDANT
Hybrids - plug in or otherwise - have advantages over pure electric cars, but “efficiency” is not remotely one of them. I can’t imagine where you got that from.
The reality is that car engines are not nearly as efficient as stationary power plants. Even when you take into account powerline losses, it’s more energy efficient to burn fuel to make electricity with a turbine and use it in an electric car than to burn fuel in an Otto-cycle engine.
And of course, there’s the issue that there are a number of electric power sources you simply can’t lug along in a car, like solar panels and wind turbines.
2
@DENOTE MORDANT
the market says otherwise...
government perks to buyers you say? ...how about a century of government subsidies to all things internal combustion engine.
8
The federal government should raise the federal gas tax (which hasn't changed since 1993), and/or extend the full electric vehicle federal tax credit for manufacturers after the 200,000 vehicle limit.
Tesla is a golden opportunity for the United States to address the reality of climate change.
Dealerships are not enthusiastic about selling electric cars because they require little maintenance, and they are generally not profitable for automakers because of low volume; but if our planet is to be saved then Americans must shift to electric transportation.
Tesla is the leader in the domestic manufacture of electric vehicles, and if it fails, then a significant portion of that market will be filled instead by more polluting IC-powered vehicles or by electric vehicles made by foreign manufacturers.
16
Tesla products should be separated into 2 groups: the well-received Model S which was designed and developed by ex-Big 3 engineering managers stationed in Detroit (yes, it is a Detroit designed car), and the Model X and 3 which were poorly designed and developed by the younger/less experienced Detroit engineers he offered relocation packages to after he closed that office and let the older hands go. He had the misguided notion all the expertise was transferred to the younger engineers based on a single model program. You should pursue that story by interviewing those ex-Model S engineers. Search LinkedIn.
(Excepting the original Roadster here which was a purchased Lotus with just Tesla's electric powertrain)
2
@Rickske what is it with Detroit? I see a lot of the current misinformation about Tesla originating from people from Detroit (or Michigan) apparently sour that a US made car could be manufactured somewhere else in the US. The model 3 is an amazing car. Best car ever made IMO. Better tech than the Model S currently. I've owned it for the last 7 months and couldn't be happier. It's redefined what I expect from a car and it keeps getting better with each software update. Prior to this car I owned 18 ICE cars so I speak from some experience.
12
The niche being analyzed in this article is the wrong one, namely the auto industry as it has previously existed. Ford has rolled out ride share bicycles throughout San Jose. GM, Volvo and many others are also on a path to a future where cars not just predominantly non-ICE, but are much more like software, a service that you use when you need it. This is a major upheaval for the entire industry. If Tesla can squeak through their cash flow crunch, they are positioned to come out on top. Their software and hardware for self-driving, their infrastructure for charging, their new initiatives on insuring a car whose software adds significantly to the price tag (but not to repairs) and on "car-sharing" put them way out front.
4
@Ralph
If you actually see how elementary the software truly performs, you will know how much of a huge lie Elon to defraud investors. Did you buy stock or the junk bonds? I only have 3 weeks left on my short position, please go buy more.
I would say the die is cast and the legacy auto companies are toast. The dealers have to be paid, an expense Tesla does not have. The dealers will fight electric all the way because some of the money they do make comes from maintenance. Every Chevy dealer will try to talk you out of an electric. The legacy automakers have no capacity to make their own batteries on a large scale. They think batteries are something you buy from a supplier. Instead of thinking of batteries as part of the power train. If GM had to buy their engines from an out side supplier do you think that would be a problem? Tesla has 500,000 cars out there connected to the internet that they are getting full diagnostic feedback on, based on that they are already redesigning their electric motors. The best the legacy auto makers can hope for is to have cars comparable to what Tesla has now available in two years and then they will be two years behind what Tesla has.
Tesla is not a normal publicly held company, I would say it is comparable to Apple when the adults took over because the markets thought a visionary founder is adorable but you need someone who went to business school to keep the stockholders happy. They tried to run it like a normal company with no vision and failed, they had to bring Steve Jobs back. The difference is Tesla is in a business where the competition is too big to turn they are stuck with powerful dealer networks, they are only partially committed to electric. They are doomed.
8
That a new car company can be created in America, California even, is an amazing accomplishment that should be celebrated. Tesla is showing the way to an EV future and other car companies are clambering to copy them but have no idea how much they don't know. The federal tax credit should be extended for Tesla to make sure they have every advantage.
My Model 3 has been life changing. I will get a Y when it comes out. I will never buy another Toyota or Honda, so if Tesla is a niche, then I'm in that niche.
20
@RB
Just because you’re in the niche doesn’t make it not a niche. Anecdotal evidence, i.e. “I own a Tesla and like it,” is not a substitute for economic analysis or examining how affordable the car is for people who aren’t as well off as you.
3
@Gus Not all cars are meant to be affordable for all. 15 years ago I would have loved to drive a Lexus, but had to drive what I could afford. My wife and I now have 2 Tesla's but would love to be able to afford a Ferrari..but cant, so I guess they are a niche market.
1
I am not sure why Tesla has to be anything but profitable. We all know that the media vilifies Tesla and Musk because they work for the fossil fuel industry. It's also true that the typical person will not buy things that the press vilifies. They are all brainwashed followers. But make no mistake, electric cars are coming and all the Times can do is delay it for their oil masters.
Tesla made money in a few quarters and they may be able to lower costs and get back to that. If they become profitable, even as a relatively small player that should be just fine. They don't really have much competition from the big guys because the big guys hate electric vehicles and only do it as a PR program. The large car companies have no intent of ever producing at the quantities that would lower costs for electric vehicles. So, Tesla has little competition in the electric vehicle market.
5
@Chris
Tesla was profitable in one quarter, when the company contorted itself into forcing delivery.
Musk’s behavior and compensation package are why people question his company.
An emphasis on cost cutting is likely to deny it the economies of scale needed to assure profitability going forward..
In what way does the media “work for the fossil fuel industry?”
The Germans are deadly serious about entering, and dominating, the EV niche, for the reason you mention, lack of competition. A joint venture of German companies has surpassed Tesla for high speed charging technology. They would only do that if they are truly serious. BMW and VW look at Tesla’s production and sees that, reasonably, as nothing compared to their own capabilities. And VW is desperate to put the stain of the rigged diesel emission tests behind them.
2
Perhaps the other question is can Tesla even be a successful Niche Automaker?
1
If (and it is looking more and more like when) Tesla fails it will be not because they couldn't design great cars and push boundaries, but because they couldn't profitably at scale. Musk seems to have underestimated the cost and difficulty of manufacturing and supply chain management. For example, he thought Detroit, Toyota, et al were dumb for not having more automation in their factories. He was humbled and ultimately said, "humans are underrated." He thought he was smarter than 100+ years of accumulated industry knowledge.
Pride comes before the fall, and if Musk had been a little more humble Tesla might not be on shaky footing. I love his ideas and vision but I'm not confident Tesla will be able to turn it around.
3
@Mike G.
This is true, but it took must maybe 6 months to a year to correct this mistake despite Tesla's massive investment in automation. How long does it take legacy automakers to correct their mistakes? I'm guessing it takes longer.
@MC
It was a half a billion dollar mistake.. driven by one thing... Elon's ego.
As for how fast other car manufacturers can move on something... I have seen a good number of examples of auto manufacturers completely redesign and release a brand new model within 24 months when they found the prior model floundered with customers. Musk is still trying to recover from his "full automation" nonsense... long after he claimed to have resolved the issues (issues caused exclusively by him).
1
My boyfriend bought a Model 3 and it's the best car he's ever owned. It's most certainly the best car I've ever driven.
I don't get why Tesla gets such a hard time from Wall Street. Tesla's overall stock performance has been good. It's the safest care on the road and the cheapest to operate. And the car doesn't get old like other cars, as you get consistent updates.
People worry about the cost of battery replacement. Well, their batteries are maintaining 90% of their capacity after 160,000 miles; meaning they could last up to a half million miles. Your mileage in a gas powered engine is going to degrade faster than that. And how many times are you going to have to rebuild an ICE engine in that time?
There are going to be highs and lows in sales, because people will wait to buy until their other cars are paid off, or until a new model comes out, etc. With the purchase of Maxwell, we're looking at new battery technology, which will lower the cost 10 to 20%, double the life of batteries and triple the battery energy density.
Wall Street apparently hasn't caught up with the tech. Because just about anyone that drives one of these cars, is going to want one. And if the Tesla truck doesn't impress traditional truck owners, no problem. Rivian is going to blow their minds.
7
@Patty O
"It's the safest care on the road and the cheapest to operate."
Absolutely untrue.
4
@GMooG
Tesla's Model 3 has been named the safest car ever made. The Model 3 achieved a perfect 5-star rating in every category on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's crash tests. Tesla's Model S and X cars hold second and third place, making the company the highest rated car company by the agency.
And I can confirm that the Model 3 sitting in my driveway is cheaper to operate than my Ford Focus.
17
@Patty O
A product so great, so why can’t the company make money producing it?
1
Reading these comments is like being stabbed in the heart.
Tesla is a wonderful company, making wonderful cars, led by the once in a millennium Elon. Yet the response from media is hate. The response from commentators is hate. FUD, short sellers, shortsightedness, nastiness, some driven by Big Oil, one by God knows what - greed?
Climate change, who cares. Most advanced tech in a car, who cares. Cars that are so far more pleasurable to drive that the owners will never go back to ICE, who cares. Supercharger network, advancing towards autonomy, etc. etc., who cares.
Elon is trying to save us. I do not know if we deserve to survive.
9
@Sadness i agree. currently a tesla owner .. these cars are 2/3 years ahead of everyone. in addition nobody has a similar EV car close to the range the price or the charging network to drive the car anywhere....he probably needs a person like Tim Cook was at apple for Steve Jobs.
2
@Sadness
How about someone to save us from self-proclaimed prophets?
5
If you have the right product for the right niche . . .
1
Bring back the EV tax credit!
Enact a carbon tax!
Let the market work for the common good, not the vested interests!
19
If Tesla fails, perhaps Musk will go away and we will never see the night sky ruined by his 60,000 solipsistic satellites. And rural Africa will be spared from Facebook and Twitter.
4
Tesla is on pace to sell 500,000 cars this year, and is technically way ahead of the legacy companies who are beginning to roll out their EV models.
Tesla has not only embarrassed the legacy companies into getting serious about EV's, but they remain the leader in terms of efficiency, range, and cost per watt of the battery. Tesla is not losing money on every EV sold, but the legacy car companies are and will for the foreseeable future.
Tesla has also upended the market by making the car (a computer wrapped in a vehicle) a constantly updated commodity like the smart phone. Legacy companies sell you a car that is stuck in time; Tesla constantly pushes out updates that improve capability and user experience.
Tesla is not perfect, but they are busy inventing the future while the legacy companies are strictly concerned about creating this year's version of their same old models. If it was up to them, we might reach the EV tipping point much later in this century.
6
@Scott Newton Tesla is not going to sell 500,000 cars this year. It sold 63,000 in the first quarter, and its factory is only capable of making maybe 300,000.
It does lose money on every EV sold. And each car it sells is demonstrably more dangerous than peer cars.
Comments like yours just reflect how many people P.T. Musk has taken for a ride.
6
@Scott Newton
There is no way that Tesla will sell $500k cars this year; it is way off that target already. And it does lose $ on every car.
4
@Patrick In the first quarter, Tesla produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.
1
Tesla supporters need to divorce the ideal of replacing gasoline vehicles with electric cars from Tesla the company and its financials. Not everyone critical of Tesla is “in the pay of big oil” or a short-seller. They’re just being realistic about how the company’s being run, which is pretty questionable.
If you’re talking about how great your experience was been with Tesla for 5+ years, good for you. But it also means you’re in a position to shell out $100k+ for a car, which means you’re part of the upper, oh, 3-4% financially? Somewhere up there. Your experiences don’t really carry over to people who struggle to buy used cars for $20k, and a car is the second biggest expense in their budget after housing.
Hopefully, eventually the technology will become cheap enough to make electric cars available for them. We’re not there yet. In the meantime, Tesla’s going to be a niche market for a while, just because of price.
Tesla’s market valuation is more about hopes, dreams, and momentum than financials. Assuming they manage to stabilize and stop bleeding money, investors are eventually going to realize that Tesla’s potential growth is still quite limited, and the stock price will collapse to a reasonable multiple of revenue, instead of the insane level it is now.
14
@Gus Have faith in science. In 10 years, all electric cars will have much safer and denser solid-state batteries. Companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are betting heavily on it.
Rooftop hydrogen solar panels will be capable of powering, heating and cooling entire houses on site. The prototypes of these panels already exist.
As for the Trump administration: the dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
2
@Gus According to Kelley Blue Book the average new car transaction in US is over $35K, around the same price as an entry level model 3. You are talking about your personal fantasies, not the car market.
1
@Atm oht
I thought Tesla reneged on delivering the $35K entry level model 3.
1
The stock won't go as low as 10 bucks a share. At what price does it make sense for a GM or Ford to buyout tesla entirely? My guess is at 15billion market cap, a big automaker will buy them out.
@Ro plus the debt.. which makes it harder!
@Ro They are 22 billion dollars in debt. no one in their right mind would pick them up.
1
What other industry would insist on everyone using 100 year old technology? That's what we have with the internal combustion vehicle industry. Sounds crazy?
What if that attitude was perpetuated with phones? Here's the dialog:
Cell phones don't have a wire directly connected to the service so they can't be reliable. They have batteries and those wear out. They are small and can get lost. They are expensive, a wired phone costs $12. Who would ever spend $1,000 for such a thing? It's got tech, well that means it's unreliable or glitchy. That company Apple can't possibly make a profit from such unreliable phones ... etc. etc. Sound familiar?
7
@Maria LeBlanc
Let's be clear. Tesla makes cars with electric motors. They do not make spaceships. They do not build levitation devices. They do not build teleporation machines.
I repeat: They build cars. With electric motors.
Those cars have frames, suspension systems, electrical systems, safety systems, and all the other bits and pieces that go into cars...which use internal combustion engines.
This comment is emblematic of the "Second Coming" viewpoint that many who support Tesla seem to have. It's impossible for such individuals to imagine that Tesla builds cars...which differ from every other car on the road by just one degree - prime mode of propulsion.
20
@Maria LeBlanc@ ''What other industry would insist on everyone using 100 year old technology? '' Electric motor is 100 years old technology, it is older then internal combustion.
2
@Vadim And the wheel, that's several thousands years old. Mind boggling that it hasn't been replaced by maglev or hovercraft.
1
Tesla was never going to be more than a niche manufacturer - something like a Porsche for electric cars. The company has deliberately avoided bringing in any expertise in large-scale manufacturing, a decision that presaged their problems with scaling up production. At this point, bankruptcy within the next 5 years is the most likely outcome.
8
Whether Tesla succeeds or not to turn into a profitable company, the company has shaved years off the transition from fossil fuel to electric cars.
I hope Apple will buy Tesla. They could get back into the autonomous vehicle game and the brands have similar appeal.
8
@Liz Well, if they fail they won't have succeeded. Their plan hinges on sustained demand for their vehicles beyond early adopters and that probably has also to deal with the moment mankind decides to phase out internal combustion, or at least internalize the cost of global warming. They need just a few countries to go first to sustain their numbers. Watch France, Norway and Island take the first steps since their electricity mix is already low carbon. If they go bankrupt, it will set back EVs for a long while.
I own a Model 3. Best car I've ever owned. It completely blows other cars out of the water.
27
@Alex Agreed. There is nothing on the road like it. Those that don't drive it simply cannot understand how different - and better - it is. It's a massive leap in driving technology.
9
@Longfellowx agreed 100%. how do we get more people in tesla's
4
@mike buchholz Make the cars more affordable?
3
Teslas' are sought after luxury vehicles in Switzerland. In Norway they are practical environmental vehicles. Unfortunately most roads in the US are too bumpy, even for the Tesla SUV. But I'm sure Elon Musk will introduce a Tesla pickup sometime in the future.
2
@john fiva The Corolla is the most sold car in the US. People buy SUVs and pickups because they are fashionable, not because of bumpy roads.
@Atm oht
The ground clearance on a Corolla is 6.7". According to one source, the ground clearance on a Model S is 4.6".
With bumpy roads, potholes, or moderate snow, that can make a real difference.
1
The Tesla 3 came out only 2 years ago. People are going to wait until they’re ready to trade in their old cars before purchasing a new one. In San Francisco I see more Tesla 3’s on the road every day. I just bought mine and I’m never going back. With a $35,000 base price (my only add-on was a color option for an additional $1500) and not having to worry about transmissions, oil changes, catalytic converters, fluctuating gas prices, etc. etc., I believe I’ve come out way ahead. The handling is amazing and it feels like a luxury car. EV drivers have the added satisfaction of knowing their contributing to a healthy environment. It’s a no-brainer.
23
@Judith Because everyone boght a new car on the day the Model 3 became available. Also, please explain how SF is representative of anywhere else on the planet. Also, I see more and more Teslas too. They replaced all the Priuses that littered the streets before. That appears to be their addressable market here.
1
Tesla is doing just fine. The unrelenting negative press certainly isn't doing them any good. Most auto sales are suffering and most manufacturers are facing layoffs at a plant or two.
Certainly, Tesla needs to continue to grow their product line. The Y is almost here, the roadster isn't that far away and we've seen the truck. Rumors of a van and an updated S are floating around.
Also, There is nothing wrong with being a "niche" company.
Lighten up and breathe.
11
@Byron
Better to be a niche company that is profitable than one which might go bankrupt...
If the product is as great as commenters here say, shouldn’t Tesla be able to make money building these cars?
2
This sounds like it was written by the people pushing a political agenda to drive short selling.
27
I was thinking the same thing. If the shorts bet wrong and the stock climbs there's sweet revenge for a certain person I know of at Tesla! Consider Q2 and subsequent deliveries, G3 starts up deliveries this fall in China, Model Y and the pick up debut next year. That takes a lot of one time investments that takes more thought by the "analysts" than just the numbers. Also consider those payments by Fiat and GM as well. What are those guys thinking?
3
@JP Is Elon Musk one of those people? He's the one who said that the last cash infusion gave Tesla 10 months to (somehow) become profitable.
4
Other things in play. $2B from Fiat and other funds from GM. 10 months was his worst case scenario. He didn't sound like a man in a panic during his interview yesterday. I think he's going to do a squeeze on shorts. This is a dynamic story.
Musk is a visionary, but since his company is all about him, both his strengths and his weaknesses have an oversize impact on Tesla's fortunes. He is making niche vehicles while maintaining he wants to make a mass market vehicle. He seems to have no concept about the mass market: what it wants and how to deliver that. He needs to relinquish some control over his company and partner with a marketer.
6
@MEM
Best comment in the entire stack of comments here.
Does not look good for Tesla and especially for Musk. The real question is: who is the best buyer for Tesla. The ideal buyer is a company that can integrate with Silicon Valley inventive spirit, has enough cash, but still know how to make cars and profit, has experience integrating other brands, but still lags in successful EV technology application. My bet is VAG.
Of course, unless Musk blackmails Washington by launching a fleet of self-driving 3's with a built in nuclear device in the trunk, asking for ONE MILLION big ones.
1
Sorry, fans and critics: this is the USA, where ‘the market’ determines the fate of companies. The workings of said market are often lemming-like and only loosely connected to measurable things. As long as the owners of our energy interests also own our government; never before seen at the current level, all that matters is perception of threat. Teslas could run on a cup of tap water or take flight, the company fate is still in the hands of those few who prefer to give it a chance or quash it.
Do not forget that this country is, so far, not demonstrably concerned with the fate of the planet, or the majority of its inhabitants.
10
@Marat1784 Nailed it
I am a big fan of Elon - for space that is.
You would think after 50 plus years of NASA success in launchings - there would be nothing left to "disrupt."
No, not Elon.
With revolutionary recovery of first stages to the last minute fueling to get maximum bang for the buck, not to mention reliability after just so few launches - he is a revolutionary.
But Tesla - will be his undoing. There is nothing revolutionary about a battery powered car - I had them as a kid and I am pushing 70.
Sure, his batteries are bigger and his cars have some gizmos to make you think wow, this is revolution.
But is it really??
It's as if Henry (as in Ford) had decided to make his cars exclusively for the rich and so called opinion makers.
Ford would have been long gone.
There is indeed an economy of scale as the major auto companies have realized over the years - not to mention an excellent business model of franchises, servicing etc.
Folks should listen and read what Robert Lutz has said about Tesla.
In his opinion, Tesla is the deja vue of DeLorean.
I agree with Mr Lutz assessment.
5
Lost $702 million in three months, laid off 7% of its workforce, sold one-third fewer cars -- oh, that is certainly the future coming right at us.
5
@David
Plenty of other companies have had a rough time of it. They lose money, lay off people, retrench and come back. Think Amazon, Apple, GM, IBM, etc.
Tesla may or may not make it.
4
@Dave
Don't forget Enron.
3
Jaguar lost 3.4 billion euros during same period.
5
I wish NYT would write an article that didn't evaluate the Tesla strictly on its market value and its perception among Wall Street bankers, but instead offered a holistic vision including user experience, ecological impact, vehicle metrics, and so on. Obviously a story on share prices and economic viability is legitimate, but this product honestly has the potential to be world changing, and it's sad, for all of NYT's alleged commitment to climate science, to see every article about Tesla be pitched only in terms of share price.
48
@James, I agree entirely, over the last decade there has been only one company building cars that strictly ran on pollution belching coal production of electricity. When are analysts finding going to make Tesla own up to the harm they are causing to the environment?
6
Check the sources of power in the grid. Its not just coal, oil or natural gas. Its a mix and in some places very little coal and less and less other fossil. Many coal plants are converting to natural gas or shutting down altogether. Also the latest numbers show renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels. For sure there's a lot to be done with storage adaptation for sun/wind variability and managing the grid in the age of renewables is a challenge. Its tough driving while looking in the rear view mirror.
2
@DoctorRPP Check your facts. Coal went from 50% of the electricity generation in 2001, to only 30% and falling in 2016. Natural gas surpassed coal to currently account for 34% of electricity generation. @20% is nuclear, and the remainder are renewable sources.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/
You also seem to be buying into the fallacy that unless a solution is perfect, it is not worth doing.
2
I implore anyone and everyone to go to a showroom and test drive a Tesla.
I had the opportunity as a mystery shopper last year and was completely blown away.
When you return to your current car, you’ll feel that all along you’ve been trapped living in a 1970’s b movie and that you need a shower. Suddenly all the dirt, smoke, fumes, squeaks, rattles, and rumbles will become a huge bother. Then, you’ll think about oil changes, belts, fans, hoses, filters and think, I’m not just riding a horse as Elon put it but rather sitting on a donkey. Time to put it out to pasture.
Wall St needs to be more patient with this.
33
@Songbird
"Suddenly all the dirt, smoke, fumes, squeaks, rattles, and rumbles will become a huge bother."
Your last car was a conestoga wagon?
6
@Songbird
I agree--anyone who experiences the handling and pickup of an EV ( Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt too) plus the very few trips for ANY servicing, would say it's a no brainer, especially because most people could now put up with the expanded range ( that used to be a problem )--The only problem now is infrastruture ( charging stations 0n the road ) ---The oil industry is again "killing the EV "---Lets all go to Norway!!
3
@Paul
Too early in the life cycle of EVs to get pompous about "no maintenance" etc. etc for EVs.
You know what happens when a bearing goes on a Tesla powertrain? Yes.. there have been failures like this ... and not all of them under warranty either. I'll answer for you... the entire power train must be replaced. See. this is the hidden downside of EVs... they have fewer parts and less routine maintenance requirements.. but equipment failures can and do happen and when they happen on an EV.. it's very costly and time consuming to repair. The field replaceable unit on a Tesla EV is generally a complete power train change out. See... Elon completely forgot to address the eventuality of failed parts in his vehicles... and as such.. has not supply chain or dealer chain to perform actual repairs ... so.. everything is a completely swap out... and the owner gets stuck with the costs.
1
I continue to be amazed how Tesla fans are 100% committed to the cause, so much so that you can't say anything negative about Musk or the car company without them attacking. good for Tesla for creating such devotion, but no one person or company is infallible.
18
@E Last time that following was for a company called Apple. It was a 'niche' product company. Remember? It had a few near death experience. I own Model 3 and several of my friends do too. All say the same thing. They'll never go back to an ICE car. And talk to millenials - the only car they care about is Tesla. Period.
When the maintenance costs are factored in, Tesla 3 is nearly at par with Camry and Accord. When the inflection point comes around, we will all be surprised.
No company with such a breakthrough product has ever failed. Google and Apple can acquire this company in a stock deal easily. Here is the dark horse that may make it happen too - Microsoft. Company has flown under radar and doubled its share prices. This is an easy acquisition that will get them the innovation respect that Google and Apple has.
2
@KS
Apple is actually failing right now in it's cell phone product line. And it almost never innovates any more on any of it's products.. it just follows what other phone companies are innovating. It's market share is declining, it has priced it's phone business out of the market for many consumers, it's relying on non-hardware sales to maintain it's revenue shortfalls from hardware, and it no longer is an innovation leader in phones and tablets.
Apple and Tesla are alike in one way for sure ... they both spawned modern era success off of the will and energy of a visionary leader. But eventually the vision in visionary gets lost and when it does... they are just another company facing a crisis of their own making.
Visionary leaders can only carry a company so far.. and THAT is the real underlying concern of investement analysts where Tesla is concerned. There does not appear to be a clear path from Musks vision and Musks actual product realization.
Tesla is a car company demanding software company valuations
Good luck with that.
8
In this pivotal era of unrelenting Climate Change, as goes Tesla, so goes the Planet.
9
Tesla is still using cobalt that is mined by children. I could care less how fantastic the vehicles are, until they use child-labour free cobalt or switch out completely, I root for them to fail.
I remember the day I was flyering the Tesla’s in town with Amnesty’s (then) latest information. One woman told me that I was not going to get anyone in this country to care – people in Norway did not think much about African kids. And if they did, they probably thought they were helping them by giving them jobs.
My jaw dropped.
“But they are kids,” I said. “They should be in school.”
She shook her head, “kids ‘like that’ end up dead or in jail anyway. Better that they make me my nice car.”
She threw the flyer ON THE GROUND and got in her car and drove away.
So much for being eco, aye?
I wanted to punch this woman. I saw stars I was so angry.
But somewhere deep down, I knew she was telling me the truth.
People only care about cute little pink kids with blonde or red curls. Brown kids have little or no value and are often depicted to be trouble.
I threw the rest of the flyers in the paper bin. I was never out to save the world, I just wanted people to know that kids were being abused for their Ford Focus look-alike cars. It bothered me that there was status AGAIN on the back of black slavery.
I had to remind myself that no one really cares.
9
@Melinda
Most people would agree with you on the point that children should be in school rather than mining. Most people are also less racist. The real issues, however, often come down to problems outside the reach of a flyer campaign, such as:
Are there any schools near these non-white cobalt-mining children? Assuming the child laborers were suddenly out of a job for whatever reason, would they even have the option to attend school? If the school or schools do exist, are they tuition free, or do they charge for education? Can the average family in that area afford to pay tuition? Are families actually so destitute that the child's wages are needed to put food on the table?
In a perfect world, every child would have free food and education. But this is a far from perfect world. Should you ever feel like taking up a cause again, you might want to take aim at a cause (poverty, food insecurity, lack of education) instead of an effect (child labor). You might find that a donation to the right charity is far more effective at moving children from cobalt mines to classrooms. As a bonus, you'll run into fewer morons out on the streets.
2
@Melinda
Notwithstanding your story about one racist woman, (which you apparently think of all of us) from 2012 to 2018, Telsa reduced the amount of cobalt necessary for their batteries by 60% and uses 75% less cobalt than Volkswagon. In June of 2018, Tesla’s battery cell supplier, Panasonic Corp, announced that it was developing automotive batteries that would work without the use of cobalt.
5
Tesla is a prime example of the idiocy of stock market. The approach of those stupid WallSt speculators has always been that a random person on the street secretly dreams of buying and enjoying a Tesla. Alas, that company is worth next to nothing in terms of real money and only floats thanks to the small (and ever decreasing) army of admirers who uncritically praise or invest in it forgetting that in the end Tesla will have to 'show the money'. So far they did not and they likely will not and it is foolish to expect anything but losses for many more months. The question is only what kind of end awaits them?
I have no problem with their technology not even with their totally unacceptable CEO, I am only annoyed with them not earning any money yet being hailed as a miracle, not being sound business by any stretch of imagination, and with the unhealthy obsession with that funky pet-project at the expense of serious car companies.
4
When I see a Tesla pickup I’ll begin to take them seriously. Thanks to Bill Maher they’re still only for snobs.
1
I bought a Chevy Volt hybrid plug-in, love it, and realize it only exists because Elon Musk scared the conventional car industry into action.
But that doesn't mean Musk is exempt from the rules.
It doesn't mean that his misrepresentations of Autopilot aren't dangerous. It doesn't mean that the difficulty his customers are reporting in getting their cars repaired isn't real. It doesn't mean that Musk's constant reversals of strategy (close stores, don't close stores) aren't real.
And, sadly, it doesn't mean that the current demand for EVs is as high as we all hoped it would be in the short term. (Especially in an era where Trump and the Republican Senate are doing all they can to discourage the move away from fossil fuels.)
Eventually, investors notice stuff like this.
Right now, Tesla looks like a company that's being run by someone who never gets any sleep -- which seems to be the case. https://www.inc.com/guadalupe-gonzalez/elon-musk-richard-branson-advice-delegate-sleep.html
10
@Bill Camarda Kudos also to Toyota for releasing the first full hybrid electric vehicle in 1997 - 6 years before Tesla was founded.
5
I see more and more of them on the streets of Portland. I realize that Portland is not every town but there are a lot of them around here. It is a car people want to own.
The price still needs to come down but people are buying them.
8
@Dave Well, yes, people are buying them. I see at least one Tesla a day around me--Detroit suburbs, and people have to go to Ohio or Illinois to buy them.
The problem is that not enough people are buying them. At least not enough for the company to make money. Porsche can get away with comparatively minuscule sales because the margins are insane.
1
@veh We will see. My only point is that I see a lot of them around town so there is demand. Like other car companies, they need more demand. I get that.
I got to drive a friends Tesla a few weeks ago. It was a good ride and the electronics were as good as you would hope.
They seem to be displacing a class of BMWs or Mercedes. I see a lot more of the new Tesla’s than I do porches.
4
@veh
You can't buy a car that the company doesn't produce. And Tesla isn't producing enough cars to get beyond the niche category.
1
We keep hearing about the established car companies coming out with "Tesla killers". Where are they? The few that have actually been released are by many reviewers considered far inferior to a comparable Tesla product.
This is starting to sound a lot like the industry response to the Apple iPhone back 11 years ago.
22
@Karl Hanson
I think when we look back at this it'll become obvious that Tesla was the Tesla killer.
My mistake- price is under $40,000.
Learn about electric vehicles online, Cleantechnica or Inside EVs.
Our reckoning will be ecological collapse if we continue a fossil world. It's evident there is a fossil fuel cult out there, hence the nonstop negatives.
3
Until electric cars are as affordable as gas cars I don't see them becoming mainstream. You need to put out significanly more money up front. Look at the supposed 35k Tesla that now suddenly costs around 40k. You can buy a gas car for as low as 13k. Sure you can buy a leaf that only gets 100 miles to the charge. Many people drive more than that back and forth to work. And then for those who claim no maintenance cost, that's insane. Wait till they hit over 100k miles (which most cars easily go 200k+ now) and they have to purchase a replacement battery.
@Jack
Jack, there *is* no maintenance cost compared to ICE cars.
And 100K miles on an electric drivetrain is nothing. So, putting aside the battery question for the moment, a Tesla with 100K miles on it will retain way more of its original price than an ICE car.
At 200K, ICE cars will have had or need some major repairs to the drivetrain, but electrics have just a few moving parts in total, and so the differential in total value will be even greater.
How much battery performance may degrade is not clear, but batteries that no longer function in cars still retain considerable value for stationary storage. Battery prices are going down, so in 10 years replacing one may not be all that expensive net.
And of course, your costs for gasoline have to be factored in. If you can charge at home and/or at work, $/mile is way less.
Once the market expands, the interesting effect will be that used electrics will be the car poor people and first-time buyers can buy with less chance of getting ripped off.
10
Jack,
This is where government policy can help spur innovation. Electric Vehicles is coming. 20 years from now, combustion engines will probably only be offered for pick up trucks.
If the government lets European or Asian manufacturers to move fast because of the subsidies and patient capital they enjoy, we will have another repeat of the 1980’s and early 2000’s where the our Big 3 needs another bailout because their fleet no long is competitive. It happened with small cars and quality levels in the 80s and fuel efficiency more recently.
We have to look ahead and stop with this “here and now” thinking.
2
I have not had my Ram 1500 maintained 1 time yet and I have 125k miles on it. Besides changing the oil ever 10k miles which I do myself. No power train issues at all. In fact many of these trucks will go 200k miles before any major problem happens. Cars are built much better than they used to be built.
2
Tesla broke the barriers in a way the Nissan Leaf never could, making it clear that cool, upscale people can drive electric cars. If the demand is leveling off, no one should be surprised. Tesla made a logical plan to entire the world's largest market and was the first American company to be allowed to manufacture in China without a Chinese partner. If the Trump administration makes it impossible for Tesla to ship cars or even parts to China, Chinese consumers are not going to buy Fords, they will choose Chinese brands, and it will be America's loss. Tesla may succeed or fail, but either way Musk changed the world in a direction the Big Three would never have chosen.
10
@Dan Woodard MD
"making it clear that even cool, upscale people can convince themselves of anything" - FTFY
So where's this logic? EV incentives are phasing out for Tesla and GM. They will be fully available for Honda or Porsche, Audi
encouraging purchase of foreign vehicles and hurting American companies. FYI,
Tesla is the only company that is serious about selling electric cars. The other companies are talking, are years behind in terms of charging infrastructure for trips, if you walk into their dealership, I would make a bet they won't mention an ev option. Their talk about selling electric is a means to take away from Tesla sales. Go to the dealership and see what happens. The sales people don't know much about electric cars.
Someone wrote the cars cost $50,000
Model 3 is available for under $39,000. FYI.
To address another point, solar panels on your roof will power your electric car. Unless you are in an apartment you charge at home. Fantastic.
12
@Maria LeBlanc I *wish* I could charge my EV with solar power. Unfortunately physics and math aren't really cooperating. https://qz.com/1482588/why-teslas-dont-and-cant-have-solar-roofs/
1
Tesla will be the dream that was. The economies of scale for automobile production kick in at around 250000 cars built per year. Tesla is far from that. In the USA, our entire transportation and fuel structure is built around oil and that system works miraculously and efficiently. The average price of a car sold in the USA is around $22000.00. Even with federal and state tax incentives, Tesla's cars are more costly by far than what most Americans can afford to pay. And if our government were to mandate that we produce only electric cars, most Americans would be unable to afford them.
And there are the inherent limitations of batteries that limit the range of electric cars.
Come to my mountainous area in PA on a cold, snowy winter night. Turn on the lights, heater, defroster, windshield wipers and see how far any electric car will go while pushing through snow up the mountains. And when the battery dies, some good samaritan can't just put a gallon of electricity in one's electric car.
Old science and automobile magazines from the early 1900's are filled with ideas for electric and atomic powered cars, and, sorry,
we have yet to come up with an engine as simple and efficient and inexpensive as the internal combustion engine, where a few gallons of gasoline can provide enough energy to drive a car 500 miles. Sorry folks, but the electric car's time just isn't here yet. Alas, I wish it were. Au Revoir to the electric car.
2
@Gary Not yet au revoir. Electric cars will be around. Other automakers are ramping up, because they have to have them for China and Europe. And other automakers can take a hit on profits when they have sales of conventional vehicles to offset the losses.
@Gary
The average selling price of a car in the US in not $22k. Its closer to $35k.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/274927/new-vehicle-average-selling-price-in-the-united-states/
Just Google it.
2
@Gary
1.The oil transport system works "miraculously"?? It helped bring on global warming, which threatens to end civilization, so that's the opposite of a miracle.
2.You live in the mountains? Most Americans live in cities.
3.Electric cars are more expensive than a subcompact? Well, aren't people driving SUV's and muscle cars and Audis and BMW's? Those are all more expensive too. A large majority of Americans choose cars based on things other than price alone. It's about fashion.
4.Staying on oil forever isn't a viable plan. Our leaders owe us a viable plan.
3
I recall reading about an exchange that Albert Einstein once had with an interviewer, in which Einstein was asked, “how it feels to be the smartest person alive.”
Einstein’s response was to, “ask Nikola Tesla.”
Elon Musk is no Einstein. His smartest business move was to trademark the surname of someone so brilliant that Thomas Edison felt compelled to sabotage the career of.
3
@ubique
Einstein was no businessman. His Nobel Prize was for explaining the particulate nature of light (named photons by someone else) and his theories of special and general relativity didn't make him any money. So ask Trump if Einstein was smart, given he wasn't rich (as I recall, his prize money for the Nobel went to his first wife).
2
@ubique It isn't just the name. Nikola Tesla's most important invention was what is called tree-phase alternating current, still used today in every high voltage transmission line. Musk was the first to use three-phase AC in an electric car.
1
@Dan Woodard MD
And the electric chair exists because Edison wanted to prove that alternating current was lethal.
But we still execute prisoners with it.
1
It has never been clear how much the "gee whiz" features of the Tesla, as cool and advanced as they are, will attract enough buyers to support the long-range future of the company. The old and apparently less-interesting-to-investors car companies are making modern electric vehicles that are available now and available at several price points. The Tesla apologists can all wish that everyone saw the world the same way they see it, but time will tell. It will be interesting to look at electric vehicles ten years from now and see how much technology is derived from the Tesla vehicles and how much is derived from, for example, the Volt.
1
I own a Tesla and the technology and experience are stunning. Part of the up-front expense of the cars is the virtual absence of back-end maintenance costs by which other dealerships survive.
My only regular maintenance is adding windshield wiper fluid - no oil, no radiator, no plugs, no belts, no transmission, etc.
Battery technology is improving by leaps and bounds and will enable progressively more rapid charging and longer ranges. EV's are the future whether or not Tesla survives.
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@JB
I have a very nice ICE automobile that has 50,000 miles on it. I've never replaced my plugs, changed the oil 5 times, flushed the radiator once in 5 years. Brake fluid flush (you will need that) every two years. By the way, I can go anywhere for these services.
3
@Bill You should have replaced ALL those things by now with your antiquated internal combustion engine. You are literally driving on borrowed time (just ask your dealer). But that is a fair point about electric cars needing their brake fluid replaced. However, brakes and fluid last much longer in an EV due to the regenerative braking that saves wear and tear on all the other brake components. EVs are the future, with or without Tesla.
6
@JB
we'll see how long BEVs hang around. My guess is not long once FCVs take hold (no thanks to Lord Elon setting back their development 10 years). The battery of the future is on-board H2...not hundreds-of-millions of heavy lithium batteries.
1
What Tesla has done in nothing short of amazing. It has gotten the entire auto industry to sit up and take notice and turn and now move towards the direction of Tesla. Unfortunately, when it comes to vision though, an electric car is not a vision rather it is a technology. Electric cars like most cars just sit parked for most of the day. Electric cars still sit in the same congestion as other cars. Electric cars use the same roads that kill over 1 million people and even more animals every year. Electric cars are part of the automobile hegemony that has created a built environment that acts as a toxic organism on our living planet. A vision for the planet is to organize our built environment away from cars. That is the vision that the world needs and is missing.
15
@Harris Silver You do not know the Tesla vision.
1
@Harris Silver. Now, come on, one million people per year?
@Gary Look it up. That's just road fatalities. It does not include deaths from pollution and from lack of exercise.
Musk is a very creative and imaginative business person. However, he is also reckless and has a very unethical streak to his personality, and this will be the downfall of Tesla unless they can force him out and have actual experienced auto executives prevent the demise of Tesla.
When Tesla was all marketing glimmer and layers with the very creative promises of Musk.... it looked glamorous. But the glamour is gone except in the eyes of cult like Tesla Fans. And while cult glamour can continue to sustain a company like Apple.. Tesla will not be so lucky.
Tesla had a good 7 years free and clear to own the market and they failed to do so. Now the big automakers are beginning a release stream of very competitive products and the manufacturing and support chops to proliferate the market.
Honda (whose vehicles production will be 75% hybrids and electrics by 2025), Toyota, and Nissan are going to each Teslas lunch on the lower end of the product offerings, and VW, Mercedes Benz, Audi, Porche, and Volvo has all targeted the luxury market and will take it away from Tesla.
Worse, car manufacturing is very capital intensive and Tesla continues to eat through cash and carries a very high debt load as well. If they had the market to themselves pretty much (as they did for the last decade) they would weather the storm. But it's too late for Tesla now. The only question is... how long it lasts before it is liquidated.
9
@Chuck
You mention a couple of things in your comment that do not have any base in reality except in the CNBC news cycle ( which in the case of Tesla is not only Negative but FALSE more than half the time).
1. Tesla had a good 7 years free and clear to own the market and they failed to do so... I guess that is one way of putting it.
What is actually happening is that since the release of model S in 2012 , Tesla went from making less than 20k cars a year to today nearly 300K in 7 years. And Btw Selling Evry single ONE they can make.
The narrative about "Tesla Killers" has been alive since the release of 2012 Model S . where are they now?... Let's see
- Chevy Bolt was said to be the Model 3 Killer because it is CHEAPER and has 200 miles range too. Result: for more than a year Model 3 is outselling it 10 to 1.
- Jaguar i-pace ( nice but almost 30% less efficient in electric consumption) and is not selling
the list goes on... Technology wise NONE of these cars can even match the level of tech and RANGE of a 2012 Model S.
The biggest doubt right now is whether people will keep buying Tesla to make it go mainstream. My generation says ABSOLUTELY YES! everyone i know is saving to get a Tesla at some point. Why ? Because NO one is making what Tesla makes and NO, other Auto will not just past Tesla as Tesla has been investing at this for a decade and talents do not grow on trees.
Spare us the Half-done Analysis fed to you by fake news and look at the numbers ...
5
@Chuck
All the so-called legacy auto manufacturers should have been developing electric vehicles after 9/11. They didn’t do it. Finally, Tesla moved in and changed auto manufacturing for ever. There was nothing stoping the other manufacturers from doing what Tesla is doing today, They had the money, the know how, the factories, the distribution channels. Inertia, stupidity and laziness is the reason Tesla is going to take many of them to the cleaners - and that is their own fault.
Keep innovating! They build cars in the Bay Area of California. Innovation creates jobs.
I’ll take a bunch of Tesla’s over subsidized coal or kicking the can down the road with internal combustion engines.
Tesla pushes the auto industry 10 or 15 years ahead on bringing electric cars to market. Got that alone, they should be applauded.
Tesla’s challenge appears to be ramping up their mfg system to produce high volume. They have hurt their first mover advantage as competitors in Europe are producing sporty electric vehicles.
I think Tesla accomplished the hard part which was establishing a strong brand name and selling well received and innovative vehicles. Their challenge now is improving execution in mfg and supply chain. The Internet retailers had to figure it out, I think Tesla can too.
15
@Practical Thoughts
While they certainly haven't mastered manufacturing and supply chain concerns, their short term concern is demand, not supply side. Govt subsidies have ended, minus some state/local tax cuts and no matter how cool the tech is, it doesn't fit every household's needs/wants.
And, absent a trade war, perhaps chinese subsidies would save them, but that looks incredibly unlikely now.
1
@Practical Thoughts
Building cars in California is a good sign of being delusional. Costs are much higher, regulations are stifling and very far from the rest of the US market. GM and Ford have probably each made 250 million automobiles. You get good at something if you do it enough times. Tesla has a lot of good ideas but you need more than good ideas to be a successful industrial business of scale.
3
Bill,
Costs maybe higher, but the factory is close to the company’s engineers and programmers which is important. Also, if their margins are good, they may be able to absorb the cost while getting the technical and human resource benefits of being in California.
At the end of the day, Tesla has a very strong brand name for this type of car. If they resolve their manufacturing issues they will start improving badly needed cash flow. They have an outstanding waiting list and their vehicles are still aspirational.
They have a better marketing position as Ford has abandoned cars, FCA is an SUV company and GM still struggles with its design and marketing. The issue is Tesla does not have the scale of the Big 3 to survive too many mistakes and hiccups with execution.
2
The amount of money oil lobbying is spending against Tesla, including the Koch brothers is proof that they are scared of more people switcing to electric but let's face it, it will happen. I have been driving a Tesla for the last 5.5 years and I would never go back to an ICE car. I hope they can succeed and more people can join on the fun of driving electric.
99
@Jonathan
So the Koch Brothers are responsible for Tesla's problems? Tesla is a rent seeking organization that has done well while the subsidies lasted. Imagine being a middle class earner (50-60K per year) and realizing that Tesla purchasers were getting a $7,500 Federal subsidy and in some states and other $5,000. All paid for by the folks who can't afford them. Problem is the cars are expensive and the subsidies have dried up. there are plenty of regular cars available for 25-35K.
11
@Jonathan Can you post a link to some evidence of lobbying against Tesla by oil companies or a Koch entity?
2
@Jonathan
What is killing Tesla now is they have run out of the Federal tax credits buyers gained by buying electric right at the point in time when major auto makers are beginning a release stream of competing products and still have plenty of head room in the federal tax credits to sell under.
Basically... it's a cash war, and Tesla has worn out it's biggest advantage in the market (subsidies to buyers in the form of tax credits from the federal government and some state governments. Tesla simply cannot win a cash war with the big auto makers, and they can no longer innovate their way to the top of the pack either... because if you look closely at Tesla.. they have basically stopped most innovation now and are just trying to hold on and maximize leverage from older innovations.
4
All the pundits and analysts in the world together have not accomplished 5% of what Musk has. He and Tesla may be imperfect and may hit some potholes, but they initiated a huge change in the automobile and how it is powered. You can't deny that.
80
@Larry Bennett
Innovators who change markets, rarely actually succeed in those markets.
If Tesla is to have any chance at survival.. it must be without Musk.. but since he has complete voting control that is not going to happen. But let's not worry about Elon.. he is clever enough to unload the pig and take the money and run when it becomes inevitable Tesla cannot survive.
Musk already folded a failing solar panel business of his relatives into Tesla... just to cover the losses. So he is boat anchoring his own company for family gain and personal interests.
Let's be honest.. he does not really care that much about Tesla anymore.. because it has stopped being fun for him. Fun for Elon now resides with his rocket business and his passion for space exploration.
8
Tesla reminds me of Whole Foods, a company that identified a market that was stronger than most of us would have expected; and providing something that the competition can now replicate in their own offerings and thus limit any additional growth.
1
Tesla looks like it took maximum advantage of the electric car subsidies, and without those a Tesla will just be an expensive way to virtue-signal on wheels. Every big car company will start out with an equal or larger electric vehicle subsidy, advantages of scale and the lessons learned from observing Tesla's experience.
In the end, almost every American electric car today is running on 100% coal or 100% natural gas - whichever the most-polluting part of the local mix is. This is somewhat cleaner than using gasoline and limits local pollution problems in some cities (as would a natural gas engine), but it has little impact when it comes to climate change. As we add more electric cars, we delay shutting down coal and gas plants, because the new demand for electricity has to be met somehow.
A car last about a decade or two, but a building or power plant last several decades. We should focus our efforts on cleaning up very long-lived assets and our own behavior as consumers. There are lots of ways to help the environment, but buying an EV is one of the most expensive and least effective.
We do need to reduce our environmental impact, but the world may be increasingly aware that we do not need Tesla to do so.
25
@Alan Solar panels should be everywhere in the US. A combination of deliberate very stringent regulations, certifications, net metering hurdles and import duties kills their household uptake.
Democrats are not doing anything about it, just like they don't move on low emission zones in cities either.
2
@Alan You should check on some of the assumptions you're making about the sources of power in this country, because they're false and getting "more false" every year as energy production moves to renewables.
Take Colorado for example. In 2005 it was less than 5% renewables, now it's 28%, and by 2026 it will be 55% according to Xcel, the biggest energy provider in the state. In addition, residential solar is big here, and many newer neighborhoods you see it all over, my own home included. I have no idea where you got the assumption that solar and wind don't exist in this country...
So no, the electricity is not all fossil fuels, and it's RAPIDLY moving towards majority renewables in quite a few states. The best thing you can do is buy an electric car, because every year you drive it the energy sources it uses get drastically cleaner, but your gasoline burning car pollutes more forever. If you can't do solar on your own roof, your local utility is going to do it for you anyway simply because coal and gas are now more expensive than wind and solar with battery storage, as shown by Xcel's recent bidding for power that came back with Wind+battery as the cheapest.
3
Tesla's technology still appears to be better than the competition, and they've done the most to turn cars into "devices." I always wondered if a co-operative marketing strategy, like "Intel Inside," ("Tesla Inside") would work.
8
@bmesc
The glamour of Tesla technology was great even as late as 5 years ago.
Today... not so much.
It has helped drive a real movement in the auto industry for sure.... but now that this is done... there is little room for Tesla in the market in the long run.
The article says: “Tesla is not sustainable as a business. Mass producing cars is a costly, low-margin business that depends on selling many of them”. If that is so, then in spite of manufacturing a coveted quality product, Tesla might lose the battle on this front. Well-known companies that have mastered the art of mass production while maintaining quality are already making electric vehicles, although they still lack Tesla cars’ appeal. If Tesla cannot quickly bump up sales, and more importantly keep up with the demand when it materializes, it may be a lucrative acquisition target, hopefully not by a Chinese company. Do not expect Trump to consider throwing a life line unless his dislike for Chinese business is more than that for electric cars.
One thing that does not get much publicity but is equally important and could create cash flow for Tesla is its battery business. The batteries that are at the heart of the Tesla also are being used for electric industry for reliability, resiliency and integrating the tide of solar and wind electric generators. This market is growing fast and Tesla is one of the established and proven players in this industry. Sadly, this cash may not be sufficient to rescue’s car side of Tesla’s business in time.
1
@PK2NYT
"Well-known companies that have mastered the art of mass production while maintaining quality are already making electric vehicles, although they still lack Tesla cars’ appeal".
I'm curious what you are referring to when you mention 'appeal'. Seems like a snub.
What other manufacturer produces an electric car with the performance specs of a Tesla? Most electric vehicles have a top speed of 75 mph.
Tesla is a tech company that just happens to make cars.
@Scott
"Most electric vehicles have a top speed of 75 mph."
Pretty easy to win arguments when you make stuff up, isn't it?
1
Stay the course, IMO. One way or another, this will be a successful business. Other than "already sunk capital" over decades, there is simply no reason for the US not to eventually move almost all "road transportation" to electric power. The pie will eventually be huge, and GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc. have proven time after time they will not be most effective at making the most of "sea changes" of any form. I'm keeping my measly 100 shares of Tesla.
10
@Ted it will not be a successful business if it continues apace and runs out of cash. Investors are starting to peel away, and that combination is very deadly.
5
@Ted, let's see, the big 2 and the Italian (soon to be French) companies have survived more than a century of economic turmoil and mechanical changes. Moreover they are made more than a combined $10 billion in profit over the last year while Tesla is continuing its streak of losing money every year of its existence. I sure hope you have a few more investments for that nest egg.
i wish so much Tesla would succeed. Musk is a true visionary.
24
@Trillium they will. See this as an opportunity to buy shares in the company.
If the U.S. wakes up to absolute necessity of electrifying all transportation, EV sales will soar. Transportation is the number one source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country. Electric vehicles have way better acceleration than conventional vehicles and the maintenance schedule is essentially “rotate tires”.
Elon Musk took the lead on this critical technology and in any other developed country, his sales would already be enormous.
31
@Tony Marple
We can wake up to that fact, but until there is sufficient carbon-free power generation both both current sources of demand and new transportation demand, these cars emit only modestly less greenhouse gasses than a gasoline-powered car.
6
@Tony Marple
You do understand that electric cars have a carbon foot print almost as large as a regular modern gash engine vehicle right?
Until the power grids (which are what provide the electricity to charge electric vehicles) become much more green in their carbon footprints.... electric vehicles really do not change much of anything with regard to the environment.
Also.. the maintenance on an electric vehicle is NOT just rotate the tires. Not even close. In fact.. we have a huge disaster coming from dead battery packs in a few years from Teslas. The life span of a battery pack for electric vehicles is about 7 years. Then they have to be replaced (average cost 5000-7000 dollars) and the old battery packs are loaded with toxic compounds and there is not infrastructure in the US to deal with recycling them.
There is a reckoning coming on electric vehicles.. and it rests with their negative impact on the environment when parts, or whole vehicles are end of life.
4
An easy fix with solar panels.
4