I remember when Trump stated that winning trade wars is easy. It turns out that it's not easy at all. Knowledge of how tariffs work and how they effect global supply chains is necessary. Without that knowledge, we wind up where are now with perhaps worse to come on the horizon.
36
Republican Model: Create incentives for companies to buy American by targeting imports from a handful of countries.
Result: Companies buy from non-targeted countries.
Democratic Model: Require companies to buy American through regulation.
Result: Companies buy American.
39
@Brett Practical model: Provide incentives to companies building strategically important manufacturing facilities in US. Help them procure raw materials at cheap cost. Negotiate better trade terms for finished goods in foreign markets. Then regulate the companies to avoid pollution, predatory labor practices.
Example: Try to provide incentives for companies developing zero discharge textile processing rather than outsourcing the pollution to third world countries. Just focus on products that enable better quality of life in terms of avoiding pollution and disease.
Result: USA sets the standards for manufacturing processes across the globe.
5
^ this. have an uptick!
The author's comments about the cost of energy in aluminum production are spot on. Energy is roughly 24% of the cost of aluminum production. Producers realized long ago that cheap energy was a key part of efficient production. Even more than higher U.S. labor costs, U.S. electricity capacity and costs could never compete with likes of geothermal in Iceland, or 'by-product' natural gas in the Saudi oil fields. The huge discrepancy has simply made building next generation smelting facilities in this country impractical. Trump's tariffs were never going to change that.
63
@Derek Martin I retired from ALCOA in 2000. Most US smelters have close since I retired because of the cost of energy in the USA vs. cheap energy elsewhere. They will not start backup.
Have excess energy (electrical) and need to ship it out to the rest of the world to make money - put in an aluminum smelter and ship the kilowatts as metal.
22
@deblacksmith Before The Donald, giant windmill blades were rolling into eastern Colorado every day. I'm not sure of their status now, but renewable energy seems to be on the hit list for some reason. There's your low-cost power.
2
This is true, Norway has cheap renewable energy and can thus keep going in an industry they have been in for over a hundred years, even with competitors like China who does undercut prizes with its cheap labor and energy costs.
If one looks further into the glass bowl of the future, I think that Norway can continue to be competetive in the market as the slow realization that carbon tax/tariffs will have to be implemented to change industry behavior.
If Trump had been smart, a weird sentence to write I know, he would have used carbon emissions taxes as the "raison d'etre" for the tariffs from overseas metal producers. This way he could have obscured his other reasons for having the tariffs and gotten credit from outside his base for doing a good turn for the environment etc. Of course, I don’t think we ever should expect Trump to come up with complex multilayered strategies to a problem.
5
Forget the part amount the money in-money out. The big picture is this: Trump is taking a page from the FDR playbook pre-WWII. If America is going to go to war it needs to own the means of production. It needs to make steel and dig coal. It needs to have factories back up and running so they can convert from making automobiles and razor blades to producing airplanes and missiles. This administration, with Trump at the helm, is bringing all these industries home to the USA to position the manufacturers for large scale production. That is why we are seeing all of the recent stories about 'the draft', Bolton, saber rattling, Iran...They are getting us ready for another war. While the NYT et al are outraged every 5 minutes about Trump's aberrant behavior, insults, name calling, and crazy Twitter feed, behind the clown mask of distractions the war machine is warming up.
Didn’t this Administration rule against pursuit of companies that use “made in USA” illegally?
As an actual marketing specialist in carbon - copper and alloy metals products ... the comparisons and points laid out here are partial at best. Reversing 50 some plus years of mill decay in the US by use of tariff cannot obviously by number be corrected in the months of the Trump presidency. Previous admins were clueless to trade and in country production of metal as well as myriad other items. The United States has been pin-cushioned to trade deficit while still reigning as the greatest market on the planet. The intent and aim of globalists have perpetuated this market position. Economists flounder in their noggins over academics and not real world fact. Politicians exacerbate all in sum less confusion. Patience citizen is required for lasting correction.
2
Alternate headline: US Industries Begin Long Overdue Process of Weaning Themselves of their Reliance on Unethically Sourced Foreign Goods and Labor from the Autocratic Regime of China
2
in other words America reverts to 1929 and the Trump Depression
American Producers have added jobs increased investment and the price of primary Metals has fallen and this is somehow a setback for the president's policies what a joke another win for America and Working Families
@Bummero
U.S production of steel up 5 million tons per year over 6% increase.
@Bummero At what cost? We are paying a lot of money just to "protect" and industry and a few families. Are you one of those people that only likes a "free market" when it benefits them, if it does not, you are all for subsidies.
Isn't it funny? How cheaper electricity (hello infrastructure, renewables) would help that industry, not tariffs?
2
We can live with his paranoia on a personal level but he's extended it to a nationalistic paranoia, hence the tariffs. Is the risk of severely damaging the economy worth the long-shot gamble that other countries will cave in?
Time for the Republican Congressional leadership to consult with those to whom they are beholden. The 0.1% ers must be frightened that an inmate is running the asylum. With a bit of integrity and a large dose of self-interest they will encourage/demand a major intervention from the likes of Lindsey, Mitch, Kevin, etc.
Trump's tariffs seem to hint that maybe all that stuff in Econ 101 about taxes and deadweight losses might actually be true. Politicians of all stripes should take heed: reality has a tendency to sneak up on wishful thinking.
1
Trump doesn't know that tariffs are a tax paid by U.S. consumers and that raising prices by 25 percent will inevitable decrease demand and GDP.
He's never been good at business, but the one thing he's always been good at is branding himself. Everything he does, from a big trade war with China to brinksmanship with Iran, is designed to convince his base that he's willing to take extraordinary risks to punish their perceived enemies. Even separating asylum seekers from their children at the border was popular with much of his base because it punished a hated group.
In other words the big China trade war has nothing to do with economics and everything to do with politics. The same with the new tariffs on Mexico, or the demand for an expensive white elephant of a wall. It's all symbolic of his desire to stick it to countries or peoples that his base fear and hate. In the end he'll make some minor changes to existing trade policy (similar to NAFTA 2.0 with Canada), announce it to huge fanfare, and convince his base that they've actually gotten something.
It's all illusion with Trump, but about 40 percent of Americans are buying the con.
8
I wish I understood tariffs better. It is hard to wrap my head around the fact that a single man could raise our tariffs.
Where is MY bailout Mr. Trump?
2
No President in recent memory has known so little about policy economics. It really is a travesty. Lots of Americans will be harmed by this latest ridiculous round of tariffs. Trump does not care. He views the stock market as a measure of his success, yet he fails to realize the tariffs dampen the market, which yielded negative growth in 2018. And I guess he forgot that the NAFTA reboot is supposed to be free of tariffs. It’s mind-boggling how ridiculous this man is.
14
Democrats need to call these tariffs the Trump tax increase that is being paid by the American consumer.
14
Navarro and Lighthizer are insipid right wing "protectionists" that pander to the "stable genius" (aka "village idiot") in the White House.
Both Navarro's and Lighthizer's lightweight careers have been on the fringe of American economics. Kudlow the TV clown doesn't even count.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, there are roughly 140,000 workers employed in making steel in the U.S. today. Just 140K! Trump says his tariff programs were somehow going to revitalize that industry.
Instead, according to Forbes and others, Trump steel taxes are going to reduce the 4,000,000 American labor work force, who use steel, by 700,000. We see it happening around us, with closures of appliance vendors happening weekly.
Trump is willing to sacrifice those 700,000 jobs, plus all of the soybean farmers in the heartland, to try to protect a dying 19th century steel making industry. A fool's errand.
Trump, Navarro and Lighthizer are Larry, Curly and Moe. Pathetic stooges, greatly hurting the USA.
18
As it was with health care, ‘nobody knew international trade was so complicated.” Not the Manchurian Candidate and his entourage, anyway.
11
@chambolle
it's to be expected what is not to be expected but is, is the complicity of once "free tarde" republicans into the moron's movements (for they ate not policy)
1
He has sold his supporters a pig in a poke. He lets them think that if something isn't made in China or Europe the only other place it can be made is the US and we'll party like it's 1943. Utterly fallacious and deceptive but people seem to be genuinely fooled.
There will always be manufacturing in the US because corporations have complex supply needs. Skills, facilities, proximity to markets, and cost of money vary around the world. If a low cost area becomes a higher cost area, whether by tariffs or pay increases or other factors, they will go someplace where they can make the product cheaper if such a place exists, and they do. In almost every case, that will not be the US. Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and Africa, et al, are very low cost locations. They may be where China was 10 to 15 years ago, but they will get there with increasing investment.
So, to those of you who love him because his tariffs are going to bring back jobs jobs jobs, think again. It doesn't conform to the realities of the marketplace. The long-term trends will be toward lower wages in high-wage places, and higher wages in low-wage places. Pack your bags for Bangladesh.
10
As a result of Mr. Trumps policies, we just paid a 42.8% tariff on components we imported from China. We will be passing that cost on to U.S. buyers of the finished product. There is no source for these components in the U.S.
15
Another fine example of America First.
Canada and Brazil benefit while the US suffer.
Please soybeans and hog farmers:
Kindly donate your remaining insulin money to the Trump 2020 campaign.
And since you’re just watching your harvest rot and your hogs die, why not volunteer? Trump needs bodies to carry placards on one of his “Show Daddy Some Love” rallies. You’re welcome.
11
“…At the end of last year, after months under the tariffs, the United States still produced barely two-thirds the aluminum of Norway — a country with just 5 million residents…
Uhhh, NYT…
Producing aluminum isn’t based on labor availability – it’s based on electricity availability…
Cheap and steady and reliable baseline electricity…
As you mention:
“…No companies have announced plans to build new primary aluminum smelters in the United States – because…high American electricity costs make such investments unattractive…
You do realize the abject inconsistency of your line of thinking…
US electricity is expensive because of what are effectively internal tariffs, ostensibly to pursue any number of science-fair projects from massive residential rooftop solar to CO2 sequestration…
If the price differential were only 25%, vs Norwegian electricity – we’d have cause to celebrate…
My own climate change prediction:
If Trump is re-elected, he’ll still be US president, the year more renewable capacity is abandoned than is added…
To paraphrase Warren Buffett:
“…Only when the subsidies run out do you discover who's been sunning naked…
1
You think re-shoring to the US will happen anytime soon? It'll take decades to develop the infrastructure that China has mastered... including training a workforce, obtaining raw materials and machinery to accomplish that. In the meantime, small businesses like mine - serving the vet and pet industries--will just pass on our 25% to you-know-who!
15
Any attempt to revive traditional blue-collar jobs is doomed to failure. The world has moved on. America needs to revitalise its manufacturing in new industries, using the latest manufacturing techniques that minimise the labour component. Not to have those new industries built in other countries.
People do not need jobs, they need purchasing power. Once you have the production, providing consumers with purchasing power is the easy part. It will be a cause for celebration when America moves to a four day week, with equal or greater prosperity than before.
4
@Pelasgus
"People do not need jobs, they need purchasing power."
In other words, you seem to suggest that US can just keep doling out tax cuts and bail outs without worrying about the budget deficit and trade deficit.
Just keep giving people food stamps instead of helping them build a career.
Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.
"Trade wars are good and easy to win."
Hey Midwest Trump voters, how are those soybeans selling?
16
@Lewis Ford
It appears that the extra CO2 in the atmosphere resulted in a bumper all-time crop of Soybeans, Wheat and Corn.
Highest yields ever recorded per acre.
2
@John Huppenthal: And now they can't sell them...
3
@Lewis Ford
and the corn to Mexico, which market will now dry up too...boy so easy I am out of breath with all this winning
3
You mean to say his "gut feel" actions might not be right?!!!!!
This is a good lesson for those who skip their Econ 201-
International Trade courses because they are scheduled on Fridays and interfere with the long weekend.
5
That's right. When you hire a clown, you get a circus. Trump is clueless about all this. It's all about his style, making his face a certain way while he says "you're fired", or appear to be a tough deal maker when the world knows he's a taker, not a maker or a giver. So the world turns their back to him, except for other pretend strongmen or bullies.
That's been his entire life. And it will take years to undo the damage of even these four years.
43
Other than higher consumer prices it's been relatively harmless. For a Trump policy it's a real win. There's still time for it to turn into a complete disaster.
11
Stable genius 101 - proclaim the existence of a serious problem where there was no problem, take drastic measures to solve said non existent problem, trumpet your success as loudly as possible after said drastic measures serve to create a serious problem where there was no problem to begin with, take hold. Then suggest the existence of another serious problem, etc...
31
@Leigh Do you seriously believe there is no problem with all this trade deficit US has ?
Do you think only lawyers, politicians and white collar workers deserve to make a living in US ?
Do you think a country can borrow its way out of debt ?
Do you think US dollar will remain strong 10 years from now if we tend to provide expensive bail outs every few years ?
Where will you make your goods if US dollar plummets in value and cost of importing finished goods sky rockets ?
Would you be willing to become a colony for foreign countries dumping their products ?
1
@Raj: So you're a Bernie voter, yes?
@Raj
"Do you think a country can borrow its way out of debt ?"
I dunno...why not ask the architects of the 2017 tax scam bill that has boOsted our national debt to over a TRILLION $?
4
You cannot revive overnight steel production or other manufacturing facilities that have been either sold off or shuttered for decades. Even if somehow you could open a closed steel plant, it would have to be modernized to compete economically with existing facilities worldwide. We must face some harsh and ugly truths that it is going to take at least a decade to re-establish manufacturing in this country--if you are lucky!!
13
@Red Rat Won't happen at all. Read the article. Labor and electricity (for example) prices are too high here, compared not just to China, but to dozens of other countries where advanced manufacturing plants can be operated.
3
@phil
That is true too. But as I said: "if you are lucky".
But this is what tariffs are all about. It is an attempt to equalize the costs. Eventually when you get the tariffs high enough, it will be a push between the import and the locally produced. However, then the product become too expensive for the locals to buy. Then what?
3
@Red Rat
"You cannot revive overnight..."
Manufacturing job increase in 2016? negative 7,000
Manufacturing jobs increase since November 2016?
496,000 jobs
Increase in steel production in 2018? 5 million tons
6 percent increase
That's not overnite. It's 32 months.
But, its pretty fast.
Trump’s “policies” will ultimately decrease the number of jobs as he drives the country into bankruptcy. You can bet he will be personally trying desperately to benefit from all the chaos that he is making. He is stealing from all of us.
12
@SW
I don't think he's smart enough. Remember this is a guy with the record as the Biggest Loser....Bankruptcy. He is a celebrity/con man, and his genius is in manipulating popular opinion. We need to respect the true talent he has and take it seriously. He doesn't think like an intellectual, but he can figure out what to say to the average FOX viewer.....and....the ultra-wealthy.
Who is he after...Biden. He's even using government agencies to dig up dirt.
1
It is not going to work because our purely domestic steel makers are small to mid size. The big firms are ALL multinational if not foreign owned/controlled. So why the kabuki? Short term super profits.
4
@VisaVixen -- A major strategic error made by US steel makers was not going global when times were good. If they had expanded into other markets in the 50s and 60s as other capital intensive industries did, they would be stronger now. They may not have maintained US facilities, but they would have had a capital base that would have made a higher-cost location more viable. Instead, they left openings for Japan, China, Korea and, of course, Europe to go unchallenged.
2
@Stevenz you need to check out what has happened in the 21rst century.
Oh gosh, Trump's trade policies were ineffective and nonsensical, what a complete surprise from a business failure who never understood international trade.
If he wanted to revitalize an industry like steel, the way to do that is with government subsidies. It's nothing to balk at, we already provide huge subsidies for things like farming and the auto industry (the bailout). Provide subsidies that allow our manufacturers to cut their prices by a fifth, and we'd get revitalized industries.
But no, Trump has to go on the attack and mess around in things he doesn't understand, acting on gut instinct, because he has to prove he's the guy with the enormous gut. The one benefit to his policies showing no benefit is that it might convince the people who voted for him that they made a mistake.
9
@Dan Stackhouse
The failure won't come fast enough for the 2020 election. It will probably take till 2022 for it to really be felt. However, look at bonds. No one wants to bet on the economy in the long term.
3
@Sharon
"However, look at bonds. No one wants to bet on the economy in the longterm."
Low interest rates on long term bonds happen because demand for those long-term bonds is increasing.
As interest rates on 30 year bonds went from 4.7% to 2.7%, people were willing to pay an extra quarter of a million for a million dollar bond.
1
@SharonSharon—
Good post. I would like to follow up on a few points.
The cost of capital is historically low.
We know the US Treasury yield curve is inverted, i.e. some long rates are lower than short rates. And, it is true that inversions have preceded recessions, though not all inversions lead to recessions. Still, the long-bond closed today 2.66%. Equity values are high so, the cost of capital is low from an historical perspective.
What scares me is the appalling ignorance and arrogance of our commander in chief in all matters economic. Thanks to the 2017 tax cut, the fiscal deficit is at an all time high--- at a time when rates are historically low.
What will happen if and when:
• The Chinese become net sellers rather than buyers of Treasury debt, such losses being incurred for strategic reasons;
• Rates are rising&
• The nation goes into recession as inventories build up to unsustainable levels??
And assuming the nation goes blue in 2020, will the nation flip to red in 2022???
That is scary.
3
Whether tariffs will ultimately bring back industrial jobs in the metals industry seems to be controversial and perhaps improbable, but what one thing they succeed at is making Trump's working class supporters feel that he cares about them. He appears sincere in actually trying to solve their problem. This is not trivial, even if it doesn't reopen plants and bring jobs back. To succeed in the industrial areas that have lost jobs, Democrats will need to find a way to address this concern.
Trump is ultimately about government by publicity stunt. Whatever their economic value, as a publicity stunt, tariffs seem to work quite well.
5
The underwhelming affects of the Trump Administration’s protectionist trade policies reflect President Trump’s myopic understanding of the rudimentary principles of international economics and the value-added nature of the production of domestic steel and aluminum.
The numbers don’t lie:
“Shares of America’s largest aluminum and steel makers have plunged over the last year. There are fewer aluminum production jobs in the United States than a year ago, while steel mills have added only a few thousand jobs.”
Rather than implementing sound economic policy, President Trump’s haphazard protectionist sensibilities have increased consumer prices and are emblematic of the shortcomings that can arise when trade is viewed as a zero-sum game.
While increasing and growing jobs from within the country is a sound goal for any president, scrambling to create a few thousand jobs in the steel and aluminum industries to appease one’s base is not in the best interest of the country and may potentially damage our long term international economic relationships.
6
The negative impact of steel and aluminum tariffs was in the rest of the manufacturing sector, which is far larger.
2
Canadian and Mexican steel and Aluminum are now duty free, along with many others, takes up to eight months to switch around the supply chain. Increase cost are in fact momentary and will level off again. With lower energy costs here American mills will complete better and get some of the business as they already have. China once out of the supply chain will not get back in so quickly. overall a positive for the US and our other trading partners.
2
@mkm " high American electricity costs make such investments unattractive."
What "lower energy costs" are you referring to? This article states the opposite, and, in fact, notes that the Norwegian hydropower Norsk Hydro uses has existed for 100 years.
We could have lower energy costs if we moved to renewable energy (many forms), and cut off fossil fuels.
As it stands, we do NOT have lower costs.
13
@mkm,
1. "takes up to eight months to switch around the supply chain". No, the supply of steel and aluminum is generally fixed, so by shutting off a supplier to the US, other potential suppliers cannot immediately increase production to meet our new orders from them.
2. "Increase cost are in fact momentary and will level off again". Please re-learn Economics 101: if you limit supply, price must increase...permanently.
3. "With lower energy costs here American mills will complete better and get some of the business as they already have." I grew up in a steel family. The steel mills in NW Indiana are gone forever, and no-one in their right mind would invest in a new mill only because there are potentially temporary tariffs in place, regardless of energy costs.
4. "overall a positive for the US and our other trading partners." Only potentially positive to the steel and aluminum manufacturers in the US. The multitude of firms that need these commodities are harmed, and the net effect is job loss while LG and other finished goods suppliers can better compete using less expensive raw materials.
"On March 5, 2002, U.S. President George W. Bush placed tariffs on imported steel. The tariffs took effect March 20 and were lifted by Bush on December 4, 2003. Research shows that the tariffs adversely affected US GDP and employment." --Wikipedia
Too bad Trump doesn't know how to read. "Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it."
15
@mkm You do not have low energy costs. You may think that gas and oil are low and abundant at the moment, but they cannot begin to compete with a large hydro dam that is near a port.
Unless you can come up with nuclear fusion or some other much cheaper source of power, the US will not be a good place to smelt metal.
5
We don' t even notice the "Trade War" and I'm sure it has been fun for Trump and Xi Jinping. "What is my next move? What new strategy can I think of? Can I raise tariffs some more? Can we source soybeans and corn from South America?" And so it goes.
It is costing the typical American family $150 to $800 a year for the game to go on, about the cost of Netflix or your wireless router. Some are going to survive and some aren't, however I suspect that small business is going to get crushed.
13
@Steve
$150 to $800 per year.
Median household income of $62,600. That $800 would be 1.2%.
Inflation is only running 1.3%.
Doesn't hold up that all of inflation was due to tariffs.
Really just a fraction of that.
This excellent article shows us how complicated and interconnected global supply chains are. The big takeaway here is that global market forces determine what gets made where and how much. The tariffs imposed by Trump just moved a few things around a tiny bit, but the net macro effect has been next to nothing regarding American jobs.
Any domestic company, that fabricates anything out of aluminum or steel has been hurt by these tariffs. A few companies that produce raw aluminum and steel had slight increases in production.
Trump doesn't realize that in today's world, they make part of it here and sell it there or they make part of it there and sell some of it here and the rest elsewhere. There is no strictly domestic manufacturing economy.
The market rules and the market is bypassing Trump's tariffs, except the US consumer who has to pay for higher costs because of them. Tariffs are a tax and taxing production reduces production.
72
@Bruce Rozenblit Indeed, the consumer pays--and how! In September of 2016, I purchased a 6 X 12 enclosed trailer. Since it had to sit outdoors 24/7, I chose a trailer with an aluminum floor/frame (the other choice was marine grade treated wood/steel frame). The aluminum upgrade cost me an extra $300. Fast forward to today: My brother is shopping for an enclosed trailer of the same dimensions, also favoring mostly aluminum construction. Current cost upgrade for the aluminum floor/frame is $1300 (with a lengthy wait for delivery). No doubt some of that price increase is due to three years of "normal" price increases, followed by the significant metals tariffs over the past year.
7
@Bruce Rozenblit His "again" was ALWAYS nonsense.
This is just another example of his crippled "thinking".
4
How many times does someone have to point out that steel tariffs benefitted Republican donors, period. Let’s all google this. Start with the Koch brothers and then with those who benefitted from a drop in the stock market. This is about corruption, period.
32
@H.A. Hyde Americans have a case of the specials. Our industry wasn't damaged in WWII, and our side won. That's in the past, but the image in popular imagination that "it can't be made better elsewhere - especially in a communist country" still lingers.
It obviously can, and is. So what now? Assuming the position for the Koch brothers is probably not the best way forward.
1
“and what that’s done for your aluminum and steel in this country is incredible.”
Incredible - synonym: Unbelievable
Unbelievable - Trump's claims about what tariffs do, or who pays for them.
Used in a sentence: The dearth of understanding about the detrimental impacts of tariffs coming from the President's mouth is frankly unbelievable.
18
@sandgk
Most of what Trump says is fantastic, as in a fantasy, true in his head and nowhere else.
fan·ta·sy
/ˈfan(t)əsē/
noun
1.
the faculty or activity of imagining things, especially things that are impossible or improbable.
3
There is always a consequence. If you block trade to keep specific jobs here you also lose a market to sell in and buy in.
11
Trump claims the tariffs are filling up the treasury and according to that reasoning tariffs of 100% on all imported good would end our deficit. Alas as Trump's biz record shows he lost over 1 billion in 10 years more than any other tax payer unless it was fraud. Trump is an erratic blowhard who lived off his father's money and created a phony image ,the Trump family engaged in tax fraud for decades and now the Trump family is cashing in on the presidency,stay at my hotel and get a good deal.
11
@REBCO
If 100% cuts the trade deficit to ZERO, by the "logic" that you suggest, make the tariff 200% and actually think that China will PAY US to accept its goods. That is obviously NOT true, because we consumers, and not China, pay the cost of the tariffs. (And I realize you do NOT support tariffs at all.)
If only ...
Who was it that told us that "trade wars are good ans easy to win"? Remind me.
2
Duh.
It's only been a year. A change in policy such as this will take time, a few years to show measurable results.
3
@Aristotle Gluteus Maximus
Tell that to the soybean and hog farmers.
7
@Aristotle Gluteus Maximus
Then why does Trump lie about the results so far?
3
@Aristotle Gluteus Maximus Yes, and the measurable results will be damage to the US economy.
3
Another ill-thought out program originating from Trump's gut.
After years of Republicans being free trade proponents , we now have the tariff warriors of today. So when do they switch back? I know. When Trump burps tariffs are expelled as a policy.
Well, that's what you get when the gut rules. Burp.
11
@Sly4Alan. Republicans continue to be free traders. What you are seeing is China be held to account for not being free trade.
1
@mkm Holding China to account should not be our primary goal. What good is that if our own economy is damaged, perhaps permanently?
1
@mkm
How, exactly, is China "not free trade?" Be specific. Provide instances of Chinese trade policy along with your sources. Then provide an in depth economic analysis of the effects of those policies, again with sources for those effects.
In another comment here you mentioned Canada and Mexico. The problem is that Trump claimed NAFTA was costing us jobs. So, is "free trade" good or bad? You can't have it both ways, a lesson that you, Trump and all Trump supporters just can't seem to understand.
1
It's pretty clear that the Tariffs won't make the government rich to the extent it can pay the huge farmer subsidies promised and when the tariffs are gone the rug gets pulled out from under even after the damage to farmers has been done. In the end game they get the shaft! The tariffs take a smaller hit spread across the rest of the economy to pay the tariffs as well.
This is a smoke and mirrors games based on a power no President should have any more. A million web years ago it may have mattered when tariffs funded the bulk of the government. This Big Lie strategy isn't playing well. Too many people know how it works (or does not). It's all based in what Mr Trump can execute with a pen. He likes this lever of power most. The boy who would be King!
7
Basically the tariffs are a tax that mostly affect America's lower and middle class.
Democrats should present this cold hard fact to the American public.
27
@D.A.Oh The part of the electorate that favors Trump prefers "alternative" facts and lacks the analytical ability to understand anything complicated. And trade is very, very complicated.
At the rate we're winning, I would move up our Financial bankruptcy by one year but that still beats our political and moral bankruptcies of 2016. He's taxing the middle class and gambling with that money that he'll get out clean before the grift is noticed. Too late.
19
Consumers will inevitably pay the price on the Trump tariff debacle while Trump continues to parade his tariffs are working with a complicit GOP just looking on.
13
It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me to place tariffs on raw material; temporary tariffs on products which could feasibly be made in America with a corresponding investment in targeted industries to add real manufacturing jobs might be worth exploring. I'm not sure how that would play out in today's world.
4
Another angle on the tariffs is that transfers money around the US. Consumers to farmers is one transfer. It would be interesting to see a story following the money. I am thinking that this hidden tax on consumers makes certain groups more profitable in addition to the direct transfers from the government in support of those sectors damaged by retaliatory tariffs.
19
Trump says the trade war will end soon, then 5 minutes later he says the tariffs are here to stay.
Unless you have insider info, it's too risky to make large investments in US manufacturing with Trump blowing hot and cold all day every day.
91
Give it time. Manufacturing, with its long-tail supply chains, don't change overnight.
2
@Brewster Millions
A lot of companies will be out of business by then.
Such a brilliant suggestion, just like the comment that "trade wars are good and so easy to win", right?
5
@Brewster Millions Yes. The changes we already see, like Americans paying higher retail prices, American aluminum product exporters losing business to international competitors, etc., will all get worse with time and we'll fall further behind than we already are. And domestic producers that are artificially protected from competition will get even less competitive with international rivals than they already are, again to the detriment of American workers and consumers. Pure idiocy.
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@Brewster Millions
Yes - sure, plan for lots of improvement after we get Mexico's check for the wall . . .
But he says nasty things about people his supporters don’t like so, no problem.
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