By manipulating the markets he assures his re-election. From the 2016 election we learned that the word "whore" is not to do with sex, but with money and is more accurately applied to men.
After the election he'll go for broke, literally. - BK the country to justify the end of Obamacare, medicare and social security.
3
If the river of money pouring into American stock markets were being used for real investment in plant, equipment, worker training, etc. there would be a solid support for stock prices.
If however, that river of money is going into the pockets of speculators (aka gamblers), then share price is the air in a balloon. The same goes for real estate or any other commodity.
Trump doesn't know the difference, and Wall Street speculators don't care; trusting, no doubt, that they will get out before the balloon bursts.
And, many of them will get out in time, leaving many of us looking at a limp, busted balloon where our life savings used to be.
I just hope the bust comes before the next election, resulting once again in the Democratic Party picking up the pieces of another Republican train wreck.
3
Why not pay attention to the stock market? Would the author, and others, object if the president was altering policy based on popular and often cited public opinion polls?
Trump's erratic policies proposing tough tariffs and then suddenly backing off his threats, or threatening to close the border to Mexico and then dropping the threats certainly does affect the markets, but should we assume that his reversals are simply done to protect the stock market? How do we know he isn't intentionally manipulating the market for his personal gain, or for the financial gain of his rich buddies? Millions, if not billions of dollars can be made if one knows in advance that the disrupter in chief is about to roil the markets with a quick twitter. Surely Trump would not engage in insider trading, or would he?
6
How wonderful! My investments are up about 21% on an annualized basis since the beginning of January. I don't trust Trump or stock buyback programs to keep my investments growing, so I have a good deal of money on the sidelines waiting for the next big crash. It's bound to happen in this economy. Trump has no overarching economic policy nor does he have any particular expertise outside of demanding that he get his own way about everything. That's a formula for losses in the long run, for investors and for those who can't afford to invest.
3
The reason is obvious. As goes the market so goes his presidency. Ultimately his success is based on money--from the markets to his tax returns.
2
I wonder what is in those tax returns that makes Donald so market driven?
His only "achievement" to date was a huge tax cut for people like him. He and his pals are the tip of the investor class and being able to manipulate the stock market with national policy must be the creme de la creme for any pirate anywhere.
trump makes Nixon look honest. At least Nixon was concerned that Americans know that their president was not a crook. trump and the republican congress don't care if trump is a crook and don't care who knows it.
8
The obsession is with himself and how he manufactures a fantasy to live in and co-opts co-dependent people to support his fantasies.
6
I always thought Trump's China (tariffs) and Mexico (closed border) policies were a bit stupid. It seems like the markets agreed and he backed off. Is that a bad thing?
@Rick
No it is because Trump has such a short attention span, when he says something, the next day it is forgotten and he moves onto something else which in that particular day, he feels it is a crisis.
3
as told to him by........
1
Seriously?
Trump knows enough about markets as he does immigration, foreign policy ...ETC.
I remember 2007 / 2008 financial problems, who doesn't?
The way this is going Trump would be the guy to figure it out the next problem? Dictating Fed policy?
again Seriously?
One thing that he is lacking, another when it's your money.
Trump fans please get serious. I know, I know I alone can...
2
I recollect Obama differentiating between the market and the real economy- being capable and smart he knew the real economy was the more important. Now the market is a creature of buybacks that prop up its' measure and institutional money is more and more on the sideline as the highs are too high and risk is extreme.
And of course we have Trump not understanding anything about anything and acting the booster for the market and teasing out the China deal like a 3rd rate reality show promo. It is going to revert to the mean and because the market is now inordinately large the spill over to the real economy will be painful. Dumb Don will once again affect the economic lives of his base and they will cheer their impoverishment. Too bad we all are aboard the Trump turnip truck- I really want to get off and 651 more long days of this nightmare looms.
6
Another possible corruption: Is Trump having "market" discussions with friends, active traders and insiders, such as Carl Icahn, Wilbur Ross, Steve Mnuchin and Anthony Scaramucci?
6
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.
4
How much money does Trump have in the "market"?
5
The lack of education in economy of Americans is appalling.
They think that economy is making money.
Some should look at the etymology...
Mr. Sharma is selective. Bill Clinton remarked that he had to take into account the reaction of the bond markets to his decisions.
Turning on a dime to prevent the market going the wrong way could be seen as "negative feedback". This tends to lead to stability, while doubling down on what isn't working tends to exacerbate instability.
1
Someone might want to mention to the President that many of us consider the "amount of money left when the bills are paid" to be a better indication of economic health than the DJIA.
6
@JK
The problem is the TRILLION AND A HALF DOLLAR tax cut that went primarily to corporations and the wealthy along with Trump and the Trumpublicans desire to destroy healthcare means, before too long, you will be spending whatever tax savings you had and a lot more to pay for all of this destruction.
4
Right before the 2016 election, all media and pundits predicted with certainty a market meltdown should Trump be elected. That hasn't happened. It seems that the Democrats and their sycophantic media care about the market when it suits them.
@Ronald Weinstein
No, he made up for it with his TRILLION AND A HALF DOLLAR tax cut to the wealthy corporations who then were able to buy back their own stock thus artificially raising the price of their shares and the market along with it.
4
The top 10% of American households, as defined by total wealth, now own 84% of all stocks in 2016, according to a paper by NYU economist Edward N. Wolff.
The bottom 80% own just 6.7%.
A Pew Research survey found that 53 percent of Americans own no stocks.
So most people possess little or no significant stock ownership.
Much of the rise in stock prices in the last couple of years was fueled by stock buy backs by companies. Companies used more than 70% of their tax savings windfall for buy backs.
So how is this a good measure of economic success?
One more example that Trump doesn't know what he's doing.
5
15% of the people own 80% of the stocks. Trump's obsession with stocks doesn't help most of us.
1
Has anyone looked at the investment activity of Trump's cronies? Before and after trade policy announcements?
Just sayin.
6
@400 Lb Guy
What is Putin's broker investing Putin's money in? in?
2
Money is important. Everybody knows that. However, there is more to life than money. What we DO with the money has some
significance as well. Trump seems to think that the point of money is to make more money and not much else.
1
Trump measures his own success based on the trend of his personal wealth and his power to enhance it even more. The Constitution, laws, "norms," market forces, foreign policy, stock market performance that impede or may impede his success are ejected from his body like the "alien" of movies. This, of course, endangers us all. Trump will do whatever it will take to succeed. His behavior is nothing new; it's unrealistic to expect it to change. We are all obligated to make best efforts to select another person for president in 2020.
The counterpoint to Trump paraphrases the cliche, "if you take care of the little things the big things will take care of themselves." Take care of all the little people.
3
Well, of course this is evidence that our president does not really understand what his job is.
Recently it was pointed out to me that during my lifetime the measure of our country's material success has changed from "standard of living" to "the economy"
The markets matter of course, and matter a great deal to a few, but obviously have little effect on "the standard of living," as hopelessness and inequality can rise while markets boom.
7
Now is the time to recollect,remember and act upon the words Mr.Greenspan once warned US about markets back in 2008-MARKETS EXUBERANCE and bound to collapse SOON. Curporate tax cuts in US,paltry interest rates for Mainstreeters in most nations,market manipulating strategies in practice by powerelites since four decades and corrupt liars in governances no matter under what form they control/lead their nations are the dangerous tactics people should be wary about and be prepare for economic dangers/consequences lurking over their lives and very livelihood in future. Phytoist from USA.
2
Yes, president Trump needs to create the image of market successes to "prove" that his tax policy, virtually unsuccessful in terms of helping anyone but those already wealthy, worked for middle America. It didn't work, no surprise to anyone, not even its backers, because it was just one more scam to give more monetary control to corps and higher earners at the expense of the rest of us.
4
"Mr. Trump is not only reading the markets as a daily measure of his success, he is also shaping policy to keep prices high."
Not much of a surprise. trump saw the panic in voter's faces when they saw their 401ks at about 40% of their previous value in 2008 and blamed gwb and the republicans. And Obama swept into office.
He thinks that keeping the markets high will keep him on office.
And if he and the republicans can torch the markets when Democrats are in office- as Senate republicans tried during the Obama years, the voters will be trained to vote for republicans.
2
You say Trump has been remarkably consistence on being anti China since 1980.
So why did he not bring back his and Ivanka's slave labor trinket factories from China (and India) before they went belly up?
Doesn't sound too anti China to me.
2
The stock market is generally a good barometer for the health of the economy and expectations going forward. The fact the Trump is constrained by this feedback is a *good* thing--he's walked back some of his crazier policies because of this feedback loop. It has forced him to normalize his behavior and policies to conventional wisdom and past practice--it makes his decisions less zany, not more.
The market rewards policies that the general consensus believes will be good for the country and punishes uncertainty and risk, i.e., it largely pushes Trump toward good behavior. And there appears to be no other constraint on his baser instincts and reckless decisions--public opinion, expert opinion, the Constitution, Congress and facts largely don't matter to Trump--at least we have some feedback control over him via the market's response.
If Trump tried to manipulate monetary policy to artificially inflate the market that would be a bad thing. But the Fed is independent, Powell has shown a willingness to defy Trump, and even Trump admits that he cannot fire Powell. The tax cuts were also a harmful gimmick to boost share prices (at the cost of huge deficits and diverting money from needed causes), but that was a one off event that won't be replicated with a Democratic House. The market reaction is now largely aligned with whether policy is good for the U.S. or not.
And having at least one stick to keep Trump in line is better than having none.
1
So he “governs” by what the stock market says, by what Fox News says and by what his latest rally crowd cheered loudest about during his rant.
Wow, new definition of leadership and statesmanship.
4
I suspect his keen interest is a personal interest.
1
Sharma gives Trump way to much credit for developing actual policies. Tweets do not equal policy and Trump’s wild mood swings have lead to too many one hundred and eighty degree turns, sometimes within a few hours, to read any thoughtful decision making, much less policy goals, into them. It is time to admit that, beyond greed for money and the attention his mommy and daddy never gave him, the sociopathic Trump has no goals.
1
Is this the big revelation to Chinese trade negotiators? What's the rush? The 2020 show is just getting started. No President Xi visit to Mar-a-Lago until everything is nailed down, and make Canada free the Huawei hostage first.
1
I understand that when you refer to Trump "reading" the stock markets, it's not meant literally as Trump doesn't read.
Understand that the stock market, like the Federal Reserve, the FBI, Kirstjen Nielsen, John Kelly, General Mattis, James Comey, Michael Cohen, Jeff Sessions, John McCain, free trade, Mexicans, Muslims, Canadians, LGBT folks, Democrats, and all women who are not supermodels, are responsible for the world's problems-- not our very stable genius.
Wonder if the Roman press gave so much attention to Nero and Caligula?
2
I read this piece as very pro Trump.
The biggest concern Sharma projects is that fears of upsetting the market might make Trump too timid in pursuing a tough new trade deal with China, in pursuing a major reduction in illegal immigration, in pushing fairer trade with Canada, Mexico and the EU, etc. Time will tell how he ultimately does
I am glad the market is there to keep the policy deals real. I am hapoy Trump uses it as a makor metric. That protects the jobs of most Americans. I love that even if some folks get unfairly rich as a result
The concern I find in this article is the suggestion that the market may already be badly over valued, nearing or in bubble territory. That feel very possible to me.
But if the trade deals and illegal
Immigration efforts are strong and work we might have a chance to power right through this economic wall. We should all hope for Trump’s success
If he fails we all will likely regret it
Trump promised to run the country like a business using his great business mind and experience. Instead, he runs things like a company CEO preoccupied with daily share price while ignoring fundamentals of the business -- the need to invest in worker training, keep facilities up to date, etc.
Since the "board" that is supposed to be a check on the president (aka Congress) is not going to do its job, and the internal ethics committee (AG Barr) has been bought off, that leaves it up to the American voters in 2020.
In the meantime, the next time you here someone promise to run DC more like a business, run the other way. Fast.
244
Excellent analysis of where we are with this president who, instead of making policy decisions based on advice from experienced, principled statesmen (sorely lacking these days), makes decisions with impulse as he seeks praise from his supporters. “Sad,” as our petulant child in chief says.
53
@Michael: The only matter that you did not note is that the T-Rump Organization has acquired the US economy as a subsidiary, enabled by a free vote of the latter's shareholders. As with all acquisitions, the acquired entity has its assets looted for the financial benefit of the acquirer.
As a chronic debtor, on the verge of bankruptcy, the T-Rump Org. needs low interest rates to inflate the values of real and financial assets and reduce the costs of borrowing (liabilities). The Donald's tax returns will show it all.
30
@Michael
It's not actually the President's job to invest in education or infrastructure. Congress can and should do that, but mostly they use money as a control on the states to get them to follow the party line on their pet political causes.
As an example of the political bankruptcy of the country, several states have joined a lawsuit to restore federal school meal standards. Since states themselves have the actual control of school meals in their hands, as opposed to the Feds who simply withhold money for non-compliance, you have to wonder why they are suing. To control other states? Because they can't control themselves?
3
If stock markets are getting larger than the economy, this means that the tail is wagging the dog, and a dependent variable is ruling the reality that underlies it and makes it possible. The economy is more real than the stock market; an economy can exist without a stock market, but a stock market without an economy is just a casino whose chips have only illusory value. It is a confidence game, and when the confidence wanes the value vanishes, because value of this sort is made of confidence rather than people and machines and organization and production (what an economy is made of).
65
@sdavidc9
In other words, Trump's claims about the stock market are just so much blather. Got it!
5
@sdavidc9
This exactly wrong for a variety of reasons
First of all the Stock Markets are discounting mechanisms that measure 'potential' future values. They don't measure instantaneous financial performance.
Part deux GDP and forecast GDP measure the total value of final goods and services produced within a given country's borders at a point in time.
The two are related only indirectly and hence one is not a tail and one is not the dog.
They are like a cat and a dog.
1
@sdavidc9. So will this be the second casino he destroys?
2
It's also worth noting that one-third of US shares are in foreign hands, which means that foreigners capture one-third of the benefits of a rising stock market: not Americans.
2
One percent of American households own 50% of US financial assets. Those folks can weather any storm; in fact, they pick up bargains in a downturn and later avoid capital gains taxes by bequeathing stocks. For the financial services industry, a crash is bad for business. (The big 1974 crash threw NYC into a long depression.) For the millions of Americans who depend on stocks for retirement income, a crash at the wrong time can be disastrous for future security. For American workers, a crash means sudden layoffs, destitution, divorce, drug abuse. But for Trump, the stock market is just another poll, albeit an important one.
156
@Reader K
all to important 2 trump, that is.
1
I would imagine all presidents have governed with at least one eye on the markets, but they've never been so blatant about it as this one. Trouble is, when the markets go South - thanks to bi-partisan deregulation (think the loss of Glass-Steagall, for one) -it's not the 1% who suffer, it's everyone else. The so-called "little people" have yet to rebound from 2008, while Wall Street and the ultra wealthy are flying high.
157
@Ellen
loss of glass-steagall was anything but bi-partisan. who had full control of both congressional houses until nov 18?
3
@gordonleeTreasury Secretary Rubin was a big proponent of dismantling Glass-Steagall, so yes, it was bi-partisan.
1
@gordonlee
The end of Glass-Steagall came on 11/4/99, with the voting in of the "Financial Services Mondernization Act"....Ninety senators voted aye, and eight voted nay. Of the eight nays, seven were Democrats (Boxer, Bryan, Dorgan, Feingold, Harkin, Mikulski, Wellstone) and one (Shelby) was a Republican. President Clinton signed it into law a few days later. Or do you have different information?
1
It's called socialism for the stock market. The Fed, under Trump's direction, stands ready to intervene at the slightest move down. In the end, they will be forced to turn to negative interest rates, QE4, and ultimately the outright purchase of stocks. Yes, before it's all over, the government will be the largest owner of corporate America. That will us just like China, with 70 percent of their enterprises owned by the government
Trump's promise that America will never become a socialist nation is about to get a surprise ending. Of course, it's never socialism when it's for the rich.
56
@Dino Reno-Yup. Socialize the risks. Privatize the profits!!
13
@Dino Reno
what trump did promise is that america would become a socialist nation for whites only. that's what "white nationalism" is all about.
The important point is to understand why Trump is so focused on the stock market. Trump, like us all, but particularly Trump, has an ego which needs to be continually massaged and fed. Trump's ego is not being massaged and fed by the media. Rather, he is assailed daily by the majority of news media establishments. Some say that bad news is better than no news, but the ego is a delicate thing. Trump has therefore looked for a mistress to stoke his ego: the stock market. This mistress of the stock market, which is ultimately a very jealous and dangerous mistress, has done wonders to stabilize and support his ego, but when the ego receives all its affection from one source, and when that source suddenly plummets into oblivion, then what?
34
@Hierocles
Then what? The crash is folding over us. Say 10 months?
Suppose you are in a poker game and you notice that one player is bluffing on every hand. He bluffs when he has a weak hand, but he also bluffs hard when he has a mediocre or a great hand. You watch him for a while to be sure that is what he is doing, and realize that he enjoys bluffing for its own sake more than playing smart poker. He sometimes wins a big pot with a weak hand, but more often overbids good hands and scares off opponents who would have bet more against his good hands. One by one, the other players learn to call his bluffs on every hand. Over all, he is playing losing poker and it will cost him a fortune. But apparently, bluffing is the only game he knows. So you join in the fun.
This is the situation other countries are in today as they play International poker against President Bluff. He thinks the only way to win is to make the other player lose. That is poor business, poor economics, and terrible international relations.
1
Trump's obsession with markets might explain why two of his congressional lackeys, Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan, are trying to interfere with the House Oversight Committee's efforts to examine what is behind the pharmaceutical over-pricing that plagues our healthcare system. They have written to pharmaceutical companies instructing them to refrain from responding to requests for information, giving as a rationalization an accusation that the Democratic leadership will publicize the information to cause pharmaceutical stocks to decrease in value. Maybe, as an added incentive, Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan are heavily invested in pharmaceutical stocks and they don't want sick people to get in the way of their profiteering.
2
The only market that Donald Trump really cares about is whatever Trump Organization profitable advantage that he is hiding from the American people in his personal, family and business income tax returns and records arising from his occupation of the Oval Office of the White House.
1
Whenever incompetence is allowed to 'shine', corruption comes right with it, however uninvited. Case in point for economic-negligent Trump, whose deep ignorance on the subject 'allows' himself to believe he knows 'more than the generals'. How dangerous, if not stupid can this be, especially from an unhinged president who is convinced is above the law? The current abuse of power by a vulgar bully is not compatible with a democracy worth it's name; a pluto-kleptocracy instead. The American public seems very forgiving about this irresponsible behavior, but there ought to be a limit, if any decency is left in our souls.
5
If the markets are acting as a brake on the more idiotic policy initiatives of the totally incompetent Trump good for the markets!
1
No doubt Mr. Trump's family is benefiting from these ups and downs.
Singular crooks.
2
Trump is mentally ill - VERY ill. He is incapable of strategic planning and functions only "in the moment". This is most evident in his erratic and irrational "policy" changes and his obsession with his Twitter account and daily Market performance. He cherry picks distorted figures from charts, lies about them and throws them out to his deluded "base" as red meat. They mean less than nothing.
Anyone with any experience in investment knows that daily performance, especially as it concerns individual securities, is pure gambling - and the house has the advantage. It is, to say the least, highly unethical for a purported chief executive to involve himself in the specifics of the Market during tenure. Trump cannot keep his hands off, as with everything else garnering momentary headlines and fake news. So many times he has "tanked" American businesses by lying about them. He has manipulated our economy daily (something that should NEVER be done) to create fake news that those of us who are smart have learned to disregard completely.
Those who listen to TrumpTalk see a fake economy, fake dangers, fake emergencies and egomaniacal self-aggrandizing dicta. The real world is quite different.Turn off his channel and read REAL news like the NYT. If you don't understand the playing field, stay out of it and leave the analyses to real experts, not talkTV hosts.
1
I guess Trump has not learned the wisdom of Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, who say that Mr. Market is your servant, not your master.
1
Grifters Heaven!
So many ways crooked government insiders can get a payday. (Remember the "crooked Hillary" mantra, just one of many projections used by the truly crooked).
Suppose, just suppose, you were a con artist and crook, and had you grubby hands on the levers of a countries economy. The easiest was to line your pockets, and those of your pals, is through government contracts and kickbacks. More profitable is betting on the direction of the stock market, when you can control that direction with an overnite tweet. And then there is the big ticket, the U.S. Treasury. Munch, munch, munch, eat it up.
1
When it goes down it is everybody else's fault. When it goes up it is only because The Big Liar is in charge. Right? When it goes Way down it is an act of God or Karl Marx or CNBC or some Mexican bad guys, because it can NEVER be the Big Liar's fault. Nothing ever has been. Right?
If you weren’t around at the time, please read your history. Bill Clinton did the same thing, except the market was the bond market. He was quoted as saying “You mean the success of my policies depends on a bunch of bond traders?”. For that matter, at one point in their presidencies both Bush and Obama made the markets their top priority. Markets matter. It’s the only place where their are immediate meaningful consequences for stupid policy.
Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs president who was Trump's National Economic Council director, said he came away from his very first meeting with Donald Trump “astounded” by just how dumb Trump was.
During a discussion about various economic issues, Cohn told Trump that the Federal Reserve would likely increase rates during his first term in office, to which President responded, “We should just go borrow a lot of money, hold it, and then sell it to make money.” This suggestion, and “lack of basic understanding” about how federal debt works stunned Cohn, who explained that borrowing more money would in fact increase the deficit and add to the debt, something that would be counterproductive for a delusional president who had pledged to completely eliminate the federal debt.
Trump's answer: “Just run the presses—print money,”
Cohn suggested that would be detrimental to the fiscal and economic health of the U.S., since printing vast amounts of money would lead to inflation, and Cohn also pointed to the federal debt ceiling, a statutory limit to the amount of debt the federal government can have outstanding. Even approaching the debt ceiling can be harmful to the stock market and U.S. economic growth. But Cohn’s message did not connect. Cohn said:
“It was clear that Trump did not understand the way the U.S. government debt cycle balance sheet worked,”
1
If there were any correlation whatsoever between the level of the US stock market and the well-being of the American middle class, Trump's attempts to bolster the former would be laudable. But such hasn't been the case for a long, long time. In fact, given the pathologies of late stage capitalism, how high the US stock market is going is a reliable indicator of how poorly America's middle class is fairing. Look around you!
For Trump not to recognize this is forgivable, as he is an idiot. For the top 10% of Americans to not understand this is not forgivable, as such thinking has brought us to where we are today: America as the most divided, unequal nation on the planet.
As Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis warned us years ago, "We may have democracy, or we may have wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both." Being the unread, plutocratic idiot that he is, Trump can hardly be blamed for his ignorance of Brandeis' wisdom or failure to protect democracy in America. As for the rest of America's ruling class, ably represented by BOTH US parties, no such pass will be given. They knew better and did nothing.
Shame.
95
@Greg Gerner
It's true complacency has seized us and we are rooted in fear.
"Mr. Trump’s willingness to bend policy to please the markets is now clear — and it’s risky. In recent years the stock markets have grown larger than the economy, and they are now big enough to take the economy down with them when they deflate. Policymakers are wary of poking this beast, but feeding it will only make the markets larger and more demanding."
Not even trump can stop this bubble from bursting. When it does, it will be catastrophic worldwide. The wealthy will come out of it fine because they play both sides. Wall Street may collapse and banks go under, but rest assured, the wealthy will come out of it even better off because they have enough wealth for ten lifetimes, probably 20 because everything will be available at fire sale prices, including real estate.
Trump's dream is not to be president, but to be king of the world - the richest person anywhere!! He doesn't care about how many lives he ruins as long as he comes out on top.
So again, Nancy Pelosi - I say you're wrong! Getting rid of trump as soon as possible is imperative for the sake of the country, and the world. This cancer will kill us if we don't eradicate it fast!
36
@OldLiberal I agree with you OldLiberal but without the Majority in the Senate we cannot get rid of him. His idea of putting Herman Cain in charge of the Fed is frightening. Cain will be trump’s puppet and do whatever trump tells him to do. Trump’s an idiot he can cause an Economic catastrophe. We HAVE TO BEAT HIM IN 2020
11
@OldLiberal How do you propose to "get rid of Trump"? Do you seriously believe that the GOP Senate will either convict on impeachment or vote for a 25th amendment removal?
8
@John Griswold To you and others that believe what you do, I simply ask do you think given all that has been reported that Trump shouldn't be impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors? What is the point of having impeachment as a remedy to remove a person who is corrupt and a dangerous threat to national security?
I think we need to question why Democrats cannot make their case to the American people given all that we know. If you believe, as I and millions of Americans believe that there are legitimate grounds for impeachment, then let the chips fall where they may with the Senate Republicans. They will have to answer for their transgressions for years to come.
Finally, it is better to have tried and failed than to never have tried at all. Trite maybe, but when the jury is in, Trump will be found guilty as will many Republican enablers. I would like to think Democrats were on the right of side of history and did their best to prevent a global meltdown and cause serious economic harm to millions upon millions of people.
Millions have never recovered from the Great Recession and frankly, most people in this country are going backward - losing ground even as the rich get richer and richer.
6
My concern is that he is not only shaping policy to keep the market indexes moving up so he can claim greatness, he may be shaping policy to jack up the particular stocks he and his family own. Since he refused to divest himself of assets or at least put everything into a blind trust, we have no idea what stocks he and Javanka own.... or maybe what he told Putin to buy...!!
1
So much for conservative values such as not picking winners and losers...
With an administration as corrupt as Trump's, one must ask who is paying to play? Let's see the tax returns now.
1
Ok some lunatic is consumed by the goings on in the market. I can't understand why some commentators think that Trump can think. Didn't they hear that the yahoo once described himself as a very stable genus?
1
S&P price Trump Inauguration: 2275
Yesterday's S&P close: 2878
Difference: 603 points
% difference 26.5% over 810 days
S&P price Obama Inauguration: 805
S&P close April 9, 2010: 1324
Difference: 519 points
% difference 64.47% over 810 days
If you want to end the nonsense just print bumper stickers that say:
"If you LIKE the TRUMP stock market, you must have LOVED OBAMA'S"
4
@Crazy Me: brilliant.
The left getting started in their rooting against America! Rooting against savings, rooting against investment, rooting against jobs...all part of rooting against Trump. They can't wait to regain power, crush the stock market, kill jobs, raise the welfare rolls, embrace Iran and turn their back on Israel. The 2020 election will be about whether you believe all weather is a result of climate change and models of temperatures in 2050 are accurate, versus having jobs and money in your pocket tomorrow. If Democrats can whip up enough panic on climate to make you give up everything today, then maybe they win. It will require a faith in models put together by academics, just like those put together by the Ph.D.s hired by Wall Street that built the mortgage and financial crisis of 2008. What could go wrong?
@TL: because Bush II was great right? 2008 under Bush II was a great year, right? Because 2009-2016 under President Obama were the absolute worst, right? Because President Obama didn't dig us out of the trench, right? Because President Obama caused 2008, right? Even though he wasn't in office, right? Oh wait - no it was Hillary, right? I mean it's always Hillary, liberals, Obama, right? Not necessarily in that order - but it's your photo stock, right?
President Trump is criticized in this article for paying too much attention to the markets. Many who voted for him thought that electing a wealthy man would insulate the office from being swayed by financial incentives. "Trump is already rich", the argument went, "so why would he need to use the office to enrich himself?" But is his interest in the markets enlightened self-interest or a conflict of interest? Doesn't it make sense that Trump might care about the markets because it greatly affects his personal net worth? This may indeed constitute a genuine conflict of interest with the interests of the country. Trump's desire for high markets could do long-term damage to the value of the currency if the Fed becomes too ineffective and inflation again becomes a problem down the road. The President of the United States is supposed to represent all the people, not just those with investments in the Stock Market.
Trump's whole career has ben characterized by profligacy and recklessness with other people's money.
Hence, the six (!) bankruptcies and the increasing shadiness and apparent corruption surrounding his tax filings.
Now, with access to the US Treasury, he is like a little boy in a candy store who shoos away any adult supervision or professional intervention, and seeks only to gorge and gobble.
Wha could possible go wrong.
38
Mr. Sharma,
As a veteran observer and participant in financial markets, I find your description of Trump’s attachment to and fear of the stock market to be spot on. However, I also found your last paragraph a real hoot. The whole point of modern financial capitalism is to make policy makers dependent on and beholden to financial markets. Let’s remember James Carville’s observation: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Unfortunately, in this era of financial repression, central banks have all but eliminated bond markets as a source of instability. Indeed, Jerome Powell’s recent failed attempt to reverse that trend is just the latest clear illustration of the absence of policy making freedom.
So, to use your metaphor, what’s left to “feed”? Answer: the stock market. The only difference between Trump and previous policy makers is he’s naive enough and grasping enough to think he can “manage” that market by tweet or by filling the Fed with lackeys. Trump has deliberately stepped into the “Little Shop of Horrors” of modern financial markets. The only difference between him and his predecessors is that he’s think’s you can’t get too close to that big Venus flytrap.
24
@KM Beautifully narrated words,100% correct in analyzing policy makers and ending with big Venus Flytrap which equals to beautifully colored shop of horror for unwary insects attracted with it’s beauty but unaware of the dangers facing once trapped into.
2
What sort of person would believe that Donald Trump has any ability to make capable and responsible decisions as POTUS? Trump has no ability for logic or sanity.
Trump is, was and always has been about what he sees in the mirror. As President, the world at large is now his reflection. Thus his obsession with the ‘ratings’ of the right-wing talking heads who feed his ego and provide the source material for most of his ‘policies.’ The size of the crowds. The ‘respect’ he claims to have garnered from leaders around the world - despite the open animosity all but similar right-wing demagogues have displayed towards him and the dominant Republican regime. The stock market is more of the same, as is the rate of growth of GDP, the unemployment rate and so on.
Curiously enough, when Trump was merely a crooked real estate investor and infamous ‘celebrity television personality,’ he railed that these numbers were all fake, because they seemed to validate those whose accomplishments and public respect left him green with with envy - President Obama at the top of the list. As President, all those ‘fake’ numbers are jewels in Trump’s crown.
Note we do not hear about the zits that pop up on his reflection in the mirror - the soaring federal deficit, the steady rise in the trade deficit with China in the face of Trump’s ‘get tough’ policies, the declining birth rate and life expectancy, the rising infant and maternal mortality, the dumbing down of the population as our system of public education deteriorates — the signs of a nation that might be shiny and new on the surface, but slowly rotting beneath that veneer.
Trump could care less.
3
I’ve thought from the beginning that Trump and his family and a few close friends could be making a fortune from knowing what Trump was going to tweet 5 minutes before he hits send. I know a scary thought but it’s pretty obvious by now to the most loyal Trumpy that he does not think the laws apply to him so not as far fetched as it might have seemed 2 years ago.
1
Thank heaven that Mr. Trump - who doesn't understand much - understands that stable or growth markets are good political propaganda. Keeps him out of trouble.
But, as to who's in charge - on any front - it is not Trump: Mr. Xi is still lookin' good, and perhaps, so are Kim Jun Un and Duterte who seem to have no problem leading our president around by the nose like Svengali.
The FED grovels too. Powell is no different than Greenspan who was followed by wannabe Greenspan Bernanke. The market swoons they'll be there soon. Trump just belched or expelled a bunch of gas early. This country operates for the wealthy. Always have, always will. Quit expecting that glorious period of time from the 40's to the late 70's is going to come back. That was the anomaly. This is the reality. Mammon rules. And it is only gonna get worse.
Trump conflates Wall Street success with Main Street. A dangerous delusion for a leader; and also one prone to the denizens of Wall Street. They feed on each other, and everything spirals from there in an endless feed-back loop all while the country crumbles.
So it goes.
John~
American Net'Zen
"... For Mr. Trump to base serious decisions about trade, monetary policy and immigration on market mood swings ensures that the zany uncertainty of his tenure will continue to reach new heights. …"
I'll grant that emotion and mood swings are the main drivers for market swings.
The market is now effectively decoupled completely from economic activity, the 'fundamentals' as they used to say.
As near as I can tell, the market now appears to operate in a pump-and-dump mode.
To name just a few of many reasons - we have:
SEC 10b-18 - Reagan - legalized stock price manipulation by corporations. Note: tax give away bill of December 2017 was used for stock buybacks
Gramm Leach Bliley (repeal Glass Stegall) - Clinton (under duress) - legalized gambling (trading) with depositor's FDIC backed savings
The uptick rule - can't remember the details at the moment.
Volcker rule repeal - Individual-1
"Zany" might not be the first word I'd choose to describe the uncertainty of his tenure, but hey, that's language for ya!
The American people voted for a “businessman” no matter what kind, and that’s what they got.
2
Different phrases can be utilized to describe the same thing. "Interest in" or "Concern for" can be re-cast as "Dangerous Obsession".
If the NY Times has a choice between two phrases to express the same objective fact - one with a negative spin toward the President and one with a positive (or merely neutral) spin - it will almost always opt for the negative one.
Th conclusion is obvious - that the NY Times has a "dangerous obsession" with the President.
So Trump wants to be associated with the success on Wall Street, and bends policy to keep it afloat. The only upside here is that when the market plunges - and it will - Trump will own it. Bigly.
It hits the trifecta of a visible scorecard to stoke his ego; a shallow but effective cover for sins, lies, cruelties, and immoralities foisted upon all of us on a daily basis; and keeps money-men and republican elites (not those at rallies) pouring money into the vast pools of influence from Super PACs to lobbyists.
It all equates to the same end game for him: keeping and aggregating more power fueled by the burning desire to be loved, validated, and legitimized. It's an unfillable void, a losing cause. We'll all be the losers along with him. Yet, ironically, it will be someone else's fault. Guaranteed.
19
If you live by the market you will also die by it. Despite having an economics degree from the Wharton School (I wonder how much that cost daddy), Trump has shown himself to be remarkably ignorant on matters of trade and global economic integration. The trade war started by our stable genius with a very large brain has already weakened the world's two largest economies, ours and China's, slowing worldwide economic growth, and that will be reflected in the stock market whether he likes it or not. Adding clowns like Moore and Cain to the Federal Reserve board won't help.
29
@Christy
Trump DOES NOT have an MBA from Wharton.
He started as an undergrad at FORDHAM and TRANSFERRED to Wharton for his last two years. He has a BS in Economics.
http://www.thedp.com/article/2017/02/trump-academics-at-wharton
http://www.pennlive.com/news/2017/02/what_is_trumps_real_record_at.html
13
@Joe From Boston
Is it in Economics or Real estate development? I don't think he really understands economics at all, just how to manipulate the system in his favor while stepping on others.
3
Gee, thanks for the warning. It's not escaped notice, either, that when markets avenge themselves, those invested in them are less harmed than the uninvested. This is not an irony in the American "democracy." It's a constant, it's a proof. It's our definition. So much for the freedom of markets, so much for freedom in America.
1
Trump's obsession with stock prices seems to be key to influencing him. If he thinks that something will tank the market, he won't do it. And since he is clueless about how markets work....
4
Determining policies by impact on the daily Dow may not be the most rational approach to policy making.
But it does provide a guardrail to rein in Trump’s impetuous decision making style.
Wall Street wanted Trump because he would give them tax cuts and remove regulations. The same short term thinking guides Trump. Maybe Wall Street should think more long term?
One principle I took away from my Econ. 101 course was markets detest uncertainty. Trump relishes in chaos---uncertainty is his go to strategy---so...the experiment begins---will markets grow in chaos.
2
It is a true fact that a disastrous and prolonged decline in the stock markets may be the best and most efficient way of getting rid of Trump.
It's something we should all be praying for.
11
It seemed during the election, I presume especially to those cheering crowds in their MAGA hats, that Mr. Trump would care more about Main Street and less about Wall Street. Apparently not. Those naïve folks will soon be wearing KAG hats (apparently mission accomplished on the "Make" part in just 2 years) and cheering the man who cares way more about shareholders and stock prices (because he THINKS that reflects upon him) then he does about all those 'little people' from Main Street.
20
At a recent reunion of mine, a very rich peer openly remarked that he didn't care what Trump's other policies were, so long as he cut taxes for the rich and pushed the stock market a little further, to make as much profit as he could before it collapsed.
"Whoever loves money never has enough; whoever loves wealth is never satisfied with their income" Eccl 5:10
32
@DMH
Find new peers. These are dangerously narcissistic and destructive, They will ruin this nation, as will Trump.
2
"From Day 1 in the Oval Office, President Trump has shown a unique obsession with the financial markets, tweeting that high stock prices proved he was making America great again. "
Insider trading, as its otherwise known, is exactly what trump's doing. Better look into his surrogate trump organization leaders are buying and selling as he manipulates policy to move markets.
27
Trump is and always has been, the ultimate insider trader. He almost certainly has a few billion in loans to pay off so what better way to get his hands on big money quickly than to manipulate the market with his erratic bloviations?
I don't know how much more 'winning' he can take before his little heart collapses.
16
@john zouck
...and while you're at it, see where his funds come from through money laundering - especially via shell corporations at Trump-branded properties.
4
@john zouck
BINGO!!
4
There is nothing dangerous in being obsessed with the markets. In a given economy jobs, inflation, currency exchange is linked to the markets to a lesser or greater extent. It is no longer only the rich that are invested in the markets. It is also the average middle class that is indirectly vested in the markets. I am going to retire poor or be able to make a decent living in retirement is a question many baby boomer Americans ask themselves. Around the sunset of the the George W. Bush presidency, the markets losing over 40% value of retirement portfolio was possibly the most fiscally agonizing period in this century. Anyone who is not watching the markets like a hawk every day is likely to get a shock when they do.
National debt numbers, employment statistics, inflation is not reported on a daily basis and so it is only the markets and currency exchange that gets reported every day or even every hour and is influenced by a number of real factors. So whats dangerous about an obsession with the markets? Most Americans monitor the markets that does not mean they are obsessed, they just want to be able to react to a tsunami of a recession if it happens to be coming their way. Even with close monitoring there could be a stock in a company in one's portfolio going bankrupt and before you know it it is worthless. So being vigilant is not being obsessive.
1
@Girish Kotwal
How do you know when the tsunami hits? And do you have enough time to withdraw your portfolio of stocks before they crash? And for us nearing retirement, do we have enough time to see our losses recover? I would rather read about the markets and let professionals obsess over it. And therein is the rub; I have no evidence proving Trump is an expert on the markets, merely a forecaster seeing sunny days even in the rain. I am not a big gambler but something tells me this show doesn’t end well. And that bothers me because my low middle class lifestyle depends on “always sunny in Philadelphia.”
3
@Girish Kotwal
"There is nothing dangerous in being obsessed with the markets."
There most definitely is when the obsessed is the putative chief executive and in a position to manipulate a supposedly free Market. That would constitute the most criminal of anti-democratic behavior.
YOU don't have the clout to do this and YOU don't have the investment to profit from it. Trump, unfortunately, does - or so he says. His minions certainly do (Mnuchin, Ross, DeVos, etc.).
2
@Gary from Fort Launderdale. I was in your area around Valentine's day. We are in a similar boat. I cannot absorb a Tsunami anymore. 2008, I did by not leaving it to the experts to do a poor job of my portfolio. I felt I could do an equally poor job but then I will only have myself to blame. So what did I do. I took control of my small portfolio and diversified it in cash, bonds, diversified stocks, fixed income CDs and monitored it every day and bench marked against NASDAQ, SP500, DOW and NYSE. If my portfolio is not better than at 2 of the above, I would fine tune it to absorb blows. I think this vigilance has worked.
The article does not say Trump is an expert it just says he is obsessed. Frankly there are no real experts but there are Made offs and other crooks and therefore it is critical that if you are retiring in the near future you take the bull by its horns literally and figuratively and if the tsunami is coming you will be the 1st to be able to get out of hits way if there is sufficient malleability in your portfolio. Another important tip. Don't be greedy. Take it easy and have a sufficient cushion to ward off any recession or downturn in a bear market.
To answer your question Do you have enough time to withdraw your portfolio of stocks before the crash? I have a simple rule you do not lose until you sell at a loss. So don't wait to withdraw until the crash. If I had withdrawn the stocks in 2008, I had I would have lost so I waited for their value to return.
1
The Dow delinked from the economic state of the typical US worker approx 30 years ago - when capital was unleashed across borders while labor was still tethered. It was no longer a level playing field. The stock market hasn't looked back. But real wages for the typical US worker have stagnated.
And yet people (including Trump) are focussed on the Dow.
32
@AP917 The Dow de-linked from reality with the advent of high speed electronic trading that completely excludes millions of Americans from the market. The trading volume is now permanently skewed because brokerage companies can makes millions of trades in nano-seconds capturing fractions of a cent per trade. Who needs labor when my computer program can make money for me.
10
Americans wanted the government run like a business. It's now being run like a Trump business: 58 floors, but we tell you its 68 and you gladly pay the rent.
47
Quite frankly the FED is lying about inflation. When you consider day to day living costs, it is massive.
The FED's standard was changed in the 1990's. Using the old metric, inflation is 6.5%.
Senior citizens who saved for retirement want a reasonable return on their accumulated assets. They have been forced into risky investments such as stocks and junk bonds.
The only way out now is to cheapen the dollar. We will become Venezuela!
13
@Texan -" Quite frankly the FED is lying about inflation. When you consider day to day living costs, it is massive. "
What " day to day living costs" did you consider and how much have they gone up?
i bet you read that "statistic" somewhere on the internet ! yes-haw !
@cec
Rents, Food, Property Taxes, Services, some Pharmaceuticals if generics are not available, Education etc.
Wood pencils with erasers, and tee shirts are remaining stable.
3
"Policymakers are wary of poking this beast, but feeding it will only make the markets larger and more demanding."
Trump is running the country as his own personal fiefdom where the only things that matter are his chances for reelection.
If we didn't have free elections in this country, he'd likely care less about the impact of his often quixotic decisions on markets.
10
I work in finance. I have been observing the effect of Trump tweets in real time ever since the sugar rush from the tax cuts sputtered out in early 2018 in response to the anti-Chinese tariffs. Bloomberg even had a chart timing tweets to drops and spikes in the S&P 500.
Its not always Trump though - sometimes he has one of his cabinet stooges get out there with some news. Its also suspicious that a lot of economic news of late on leading indicators seems good at first - and juices the market for a week or two - only to be later revised down much more quietly.
That said, there are two things going on here that seem to cause volatility. One is Trump's tweets, but the other is the timing of lockout periods when companies cannot buy-back their own stock. The single largest influx of investment cash last year was around 500 Billion in corporate buy-backs. Mom and Pop investment and pension investment was actually negative for the year.
The drop in January 2018 was based on trade war fears, but the drops in October, and December were probably based on the inability of companies to stabilize the dips by buying back their own stock.
Lastly, there seem to be days when market news or Trump antics would have dropped further had corporations not bought their own stock during those dips. Its almost like Trump is timing his market-influencing tweets to give his pals market-dip buy-back opportunities outside of lockout periods.
31
You can't blame Trump for his ignorance. For decades we have conflated the economy and the health of the country and now it seems to many that they are one and the same. I don't know if anyone will be wise enough to extricate ourselves from this core dilemma because the economy want to drive the bus in this situation. There are a lot of wealthy, powerful people who depend on this and have spent decades taking control and manipulating the public to think if they do well we do well. We can't even imagine a country where we the people decide our fate, where we determine the country we want to create, where we even ask the question of who we want to be. We are just consumers and that's exactly all they want us to be.
12
Trump’s ignorance is persistent and willful. I certainly do blame him as well as his enablers and supporters. True, that democracy is imperfect, but that does not excuse those who destroy it - even if they do it blindly, foolishly, out of ignorance or following their own "Little Dictator."
1
It may go beyond this Presidential use of stock market value to gauge his performance. Who does he talk to privately about his comments and tweets? They clearly directly impact market value. If he communicates what he is going to tweet or say to the press, those with advance knowledge could make significant money. The financial community and the SEC have no problem to investigate Elon Musk for his tweets etc. Trump’s impact goes far beyond one CEO’s and should be investigated as well. Follow the money!
39
This paper's Nobel Prize winning economist famously (and very wrongly) predicted after Trump's election, "... markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight."
That's the problem with trying to pin our 20 Trillion Dollar economy's gyrations on "Trump's Dangerous [insert scary economic term here]."
Most economic predictions are wrong, especially when the only justification is Trump.
Just as Krugman.
4
I agree with you and have a different concern. Stock manipulation is real, look at Tesla for a recent example. Trump causes minor, transient inflections in the market. Not sufficient to bring long term bull or bear markets. However, if one knew in advance what he was going to tweet or say, I would guess one could make some very good returns. Not saying this is happening it is just a thought.
Gee. Kinda makes one wonder. We know nothing about the finances of Trump and his family and businesses... and he didn't even sever relationships with his businesses upon becoming president, let alone doing anything like placing his assets in a blind trust.
So I'd say this begs a question: is Trump using his position to manipulate the markets for his or his family's benefit?
We can be utterly certain that Trump will loudly deny any such thing. But, as so often in the past, he's done a textbook-perfect job of putting himself in a position guaranteed to raise suspicions... and his lack of transparency ensures that such suspicions won't go away.
Of course, given the venal lot that Trump has surrounded himself with, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump was indeed innocent, but was merely being "advised" for someone else's benefit...
18
This is what happens when rising asset prices are relied on for prosperity. But Trump isn't alone, as rising asset prices have been relied on for decades by both parties. The depressed returns from investment in productive capital induce owners of capital to seek higher yields by investing in financial assets and real estate with the promise of rising prices, while the savings glut both depresses returns from productive capital and exacerbates the reach for yield via rising asset prices. So what's the source of the problem? Low aggregate demand caused in large part by a high level of inequality. Unless and until inequality is addressed, rising asset prices will be relied on for prosperity. Of course, asset prices cannot rise forever, which means another day of reckoning lies ahead.
8
@reaylward Precisely so.
Not only with the Stock Market, but others too. Blatant manipulation of prices through statements promising to block all Iranian oil exports led to a sharp rise in the price of crude, only for the price to retract a few days later when he exempted large oil importing nations like India and China from the purview of the sanction on Iran. More disturbing is the commentary by TV Anchors and Stock Analysts, who seem positively gleeful with Trump's attempts to manipulate markets.
5
Trump gyrates, not because he is looking at the markets, but to gain fealty. When the person in charge of some portion of government does not know when the U-turn will come, they will be constantly watching The Donald to see if they can maintain their leadership role.
The Donald Trump U-turn is not deference to markets. It is a method of dominance, mano-y-mano.
1
Since the whole universe of Trump, including the presidency, revolves round the market manipulations and to see the stock market balloon afloat he will always prefer gambling over a cool reflection on the real market dynamics which could really help avert the crisis.
7
I agree most times Trump makes the wrong decision on whatever issue he confronts. He doesn’t even care to know what he doesn’t know about almost every issue that matters.
But that doesn’t mean you can prove what effect Trump’s behavior had or didn’t have on stock market investors. Think about John Maynard Keynes’s argument comparing the stock market to a beauty contest, where one tries to pick not who one thinks is the prettiest , but who the other investors will pick. (Or who the other investors think the other investors will pick. Or who the other investors think the other investors think the other investors will pick, etc,etc...)
Robert J. Shiller, a Noble Prize winning economist, writes often about the difficulty of proving how and why stock markets move.
Humans love narratives, which is why every daily newspaper story attributes a story explaining that this or that recent event caused this or that recent stock market move.
6
Trump is bringing the disadvantages of short term corporate strategies to government policy. This increases the likelihood of unpredictable boom and bust cycles that have long been the bane of capitalist economies. Government is supposed to be a stabilizing influence and referee in the capitalist market game, not an active player.
30
“In recent years the stock markets have grown larger than the economy, and they are now big enough to take the economy down with them when they deflate.“ That’s un understatement. The financial market makes claims on the production of future value. Their high price in relation to actual gdp is 5 to 1. Given the slowing down, this is highly likely to come down to equilibrium in the future. That’s the problem as the “markets”, or better the financial markets, actually over represent real value or production. They are indicators of something that exists and not the actual thing. Believing in that is akin to fetishism.
4
It is not just Trump. Many policies are based on stock market, from Fed's rates to executive decisions that drive employment and wages.
Stock market wants light or no regulation, it likes Govt bailouts in case things go wrong, it likes low taxes and it likes high stock awards to executives but low labor compensation.
As far as I can tell, stock market has been getting exactly what it wants for over four decades.
13
The stock market is to Main Street what a divorced spouse is to his or her ex: All that’s left is the relationship that used to be.
The performance of the stock market has little connection these days to retail investors. Buying and selling is done primarily by (1) hedge funds when computer programs using mathematical algorithms determine it is time to do so, and (2) huge institutional buyers like Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street who run investment funds for savings and retirement plans.
Trump is obsessed with the markets because his uber wealthy contributors are heavily represented in these two areas. When the stock market indexes are up, he gets to crow about how great he is doing for them. Just like the tax cuts he got them.
His love of the “markets” is just like his hatred of immigrants to his white, rural, undereducated base: It is what is important to them so he is going to make sure they hear about it over and over again.
34
Markets don't go up forever, regardless of how much "stimulus" gets pumped into them. Our world depends on whether the inevitable correction occurs before or after November 2020. Gee, didn't we just go through this in 2008? No worries-we're subbing in Pizza Guy for Ben Bernanke.
13
The stock market is, in many ways, like a hot air balloon; you can certainly try to flood it with energy to make it go higher, but eventually, you'll either run out of fuel or run out of air. Once that happens, the crash will be spectacular.
20
@Jeff Sadly, Trump doesn't care...it will most likely happen after he is out of office....
1
I would not be surprised that in the event of an economic crises and a major market slide of 6% Trump will try to order the Fed to purchase stocks to stabilize the market: an equity-focused quantitative easing.
The Fed will object and not perform such actions. He will then try to remove the Fed Chair and the members of the Board who oppose him.
Will the Senate stand up to him? No a change.
13
Manipulating the markets to benefit himself.
35
Another way to look at it is that the markets are keeping him from following his most destructive instincts, in which case this is, surprisingly, good news.
12
You have to wonder how a man is literally dismantling his government in front of our eyes can still command a solid majority of the white vote in the United States. If only male MBAs under the age of 30 were allowed to vote, Donald Trump would win by overwhelming margins, perhaps two to one. Trump believes the stock market's continuing rise is his path to an eight year presidency, no matter how frightening and disgusting that is to American liberals and to Swedes, Germans, French, British and other progressive foreign elites.
Trump knows that Reagan was less popular than he is at this point in his first term. But he won reelection by a margin of 59 to 41 percent and carried every state in the union save Minnesota. Even Massachusetts and Vermont voted to reelect him. The same was true for LBJ in 1964, riding the economic boom that began with the Kennedy administration in 1961. He knows that Clinton won reelection because of a strong economy in 1996. He also knows that George H. Bush, perhaps our most skilled foreign policy president, was wiped out in the 1992 election, garnering only 37 percent of the vote in a three way election. This was after his approval rating right after the Gulf War was over 90 percent. Bush lost because the economy was in recession in the fall of 1992.
Trump wants the Dow Jones to be pushing 30,000 in 2020 coupled with a GDP growth rate of at least 3 percent but 4 percent would be better. Otherwise, he may lose- God willing.
25
@Yankelnevich
You may be right—and never before have I thought that losing a lot of money in the stock market would be such a wonderful investment!
7
Trump's base (the folks who elected him) don't have a lot of skin in this game--they are unlikely to have much in the way of savings, much less a portfolio of equities. Why, then Trump's concern with the state of the Dow/Nasdaq/S&P? Perhaps there's no reason for it...or, just habit, or maybe it's a metric that can be used to trumpet success. Or, maybe, Trump recognizes that the US Senate Republicans are dependent upon a small number of folks that care a lot about the markets, and fears they will pull the plug on him if he presides over a market route.
In my opinion, this is how the bizarre Trump fiasco ends--inevitably the markets will tank--the man was born to create the conditions for financial mayhem. The senate republicans will jump ship, leaving Trump exposed to the political machine representing over half the country that at this point exists for no other reason than to take him down.
21
@John lafleur: If he was born to create the conditions for financial mayhem he certainly picked the right party. The Republicans have presided over every market crash in the 20th and 21st centuries. I don't agree that Senate Republicans will jump ship. All evidence is that they will "double down", but who knows how. Maybe they'll blame AOC but more likely Obama. Whatever it takes to hold onto power-- because that appears to be their only purpose. It sure isn't to "form a more perfect union" (They abandoned that long ago).
4
“...the man was born to create the conditions for financial mayhem.” Best line I’ve read to describe Trump’s history with money. THIS is why he doesn’t want his taxes released. It would expose his historical recklessness and ineptitude. Too bad he doesn’t realize they’re already on display..
1
Trump studies the financial markets to see what makes them bullish and the news media to see what makes him the center of attention and the audiences at his rallies to determine what makes them enthusiastic but he has no coherent set of principles nor objectives for his time in office. The man thinks that he’s in charge when all he’s doing is following events over which he has no control.
57
@Casual Observer
"The man thinks that he’s in charge when all he’s doing is following events over which he has no control."
Brings to mind that rooster that thought his crowing made the sun come up:-)
3
@Casual Observer
Meanwhile he takes advice from High school graduate Hannity! That's understandable since he says he like the uneducated!
Witness today's moderate market swoon affected by Trump's tweet regarding his $11 billion tariff threat to the EU. Sure traders often overreact, but the wealth removed from the markets by just a portion of the dip today overshadows benefits to the US from this tariff.
Is his extended entourage profiting from these dips because they know he will tweet about pending actions?
33
@Bruce Michel
Exactly. I wonder about this a lot. Who among friends knows about these decisions in advance and how they are playing it. You can make a lot of money if you know what the dice is going to roll. And he has owned failed casinos !
15
@vs Ive been saying this for about a year now...you think he isn't calling his buddies and saying oh hey...im thinking of putting tariffs on, say, soybeans...like on Thursday....
Hope the SEC is watching carefully....
3
Just another example of his lawlessness. The Fed by law is required to stabilize the currency and maximize employment, not make sure the stock market reaches new highs.
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@lester ostroy
In principle, yes. In actuality, the Fed is as subservient to the stock market as Trump. Just look at Jay Powell's 180 degree turn after last December's market decline.
7
@Zara1234 Let's hope it was in response to the market's decline and not due to Trump's irresponsible pressure.
In reality, the Fed has a tough job predicting, when Trump switches policies on a dime.
1
Trump's "tweeted" comments and actions regarding equity markets and industry are ill advised, inappropriate and juvenile.
Mature people understand the consequences of their actions and words, and to some degree, moderate both. Trump has demonstrated beyond dispute that he is incapable of reasoned restraint and evidences no sign of civility in the public sphere.
Some find it charming. Others find it impeachable.
But one thing we won't know, and that is how, when and where this so called "leader", his family and cohorts are profiting from the market swings and regulatory shifts Trump revels in causing.
And with the GOP Senate gauging governmental morals, we, the people, will not know any time soon either.
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@Lars Very well said.
3
He's also dismantling critical organization such as homeland security, fired the head of his own secret service, would like to dismantle Nato, has given security clearances to 25 people that he was warned were security risks. Hires people only who will be loyal to the extent of breaking the law for him if he asks them to. And on and on. I can only come up with two answers, either he wants to be the first dictator of the US or he is taking orders from a foreign power to dismantle the US. Impeach him now and get to the bottom of it all even if it means the Senate will do nothing if faced with evidence. The American people deserve the facts. If the Senate won't act maybe the info can be handed off to prosecutors once Trump is out of office.
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@Missy
I fear that he is not dismantling Homeland Security, but rebuilding it as his own security force. The levers are being pulled and the leadership of HS will soon be replaced by acting heads beholding to trump.
1
And so in normal times, before government's near daily thumbs on scales, when would (any) presidents' actions be deemed market manipulation -just asking for those concerned for market integrity.
13
Yes he is. As the result the big money is on the downside. You can shape policy but if your staff is incompetent when something goes wrong the market doesn't settle for tweets.
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