Since China is a closed dictatorial regime, their economy is probably much worse than they admit. If they will not capitulate to our demands, we just squeeze them harder & harder while their economy collapses. Since our economy is much stronger than theirs, we will win. We must take a stand now, or start learning Mandarin. Make no mistake, the end game for any communist country is to rule the world. The stealing of intellectual property, unfairly manipulating their currency, & taxing American goods at a rate for higher than can be afforded must end. This is a big reason why I & many like me voted for Trump. He is the only leader since Reagan who has the guts to blink last, & he is our last hope in avoiding Chinese domination.
There is a lot more to these trade “talks” than China’s exports and imports. The US wants China to halt its Made in China 2025 program and One-Belt-One Road (OBR) initiative, effectively curtailing Chinese technical and economic development. From China’s perspective, this a nonstarter. The problems confronting US capitalism are largely of our own making. A fundamental axiom of Capitalism is that business enterprises always seek the highest level of return on their capital investments. For decades, US corporations have deliberately outsourced manufacturing jobs because labor costs are lower. Ford, GM, Apple, Nike, Levis and other companies out-sourced production to Mexico, China and other low wage platforms reducing labor costs and increasing profits. To move production back to the US will require large investments in new plants, equipment, machine tools, etc. to be competitive with those in China with a state- of-the-art manufacturing infrastructure. The return on these investments is measured in years- decades vs near instant returns when companies engage in share buybacks, many times using borrowed money. Since Corporate CEO compensation is typically based on share price, how many CEOs are going to invest massive amounts of capital in new manufacturing facilities whose financial return is dubious at best?
Like it or not we are economically interdependent with the rest of the world. We are more prosperous because of that that. But also more vulnerable also. It is not a good thing for us that China is having a rough patch. That will be imported eventually. Free trade is not a zero sum game. The pie grows larger. Bigger than we and China combine could make alone . Same for immigration labor the pie grows bigger. But so many people do not understand this basic fact of economics.
Isn't it obvious to everyone that Putin is calling in his chits?
During the last few weeks, Trump has shut down our government in more ways than just the "build the wall" threat.
Putin sees the Mueller writing on the wall and wants what he was promised before Trump is ousted from the Oval Office.
There wan't a grown up in the room when this administration that started this trade war. Reality in the white house and the senate is fleeting in every measure. If I was 30 years younger I would flee from this country and it's rich benefactors that are fattening up themselves and dumbing down both houses.
1
Delusional US President who knows nothing about trade or tariffs. What he knows about his how to get bailed out by Fred Trump. He has never accomplished anything in this life on his own.
1
Playing chicken on the global economic drag strip. Who will swerve first?
Trump indeed has a momentary advantage created by a Chinese slump. He would be smart to parlay this into something with long-term value such as genuine barriers against continued Chinese intellectual property theft. But, alas, Trump only plays the short-term. And he isn't smart.
1
The British subdued China by opium. Donald tries to subdue China by unnecessary trade war. China has existed with resiliency for millennia despite repressions by outsiders. Chinese are well aware of their history that gives them the wisdom. It is no wonder that every Chinese new year a dragon is paraded in Manhattan's Chinatown.
1
The days of the delusion of America’s 21st Century economic greatness ended when the US 1) Started printing money without collateral. 2) Imperialistic global abuses of developing nations by American Corp. began to be exposed. 3) Failed to understand that a shift to economic global power meant a definite decline in the myth of US power. 4) Let corporations, through Citizens United, confirm that they run the government through lobbyists, ghost policy development, and serious conflict of interests with the public good, national sovereignty, national security. our Democracy and Republic.
China is observant and taking advantage of American’s cultivated disinterest, ignorance, mythology about “how great we are” when we rank among developing countries based on UN Human Rights Criteria.
Heck, we don’t even know how to educate children, prepare children to be active citizens, require public participation in their own government, and care for the sick, families, mothers, children, seniors, the disabled or those who give their lives to public service. That includes our military. We haven’t adapted. We conceded any status the nation once had to legalized corporate and investor class greed. We do know how to market bigotry, cultural appropriations, guns, violence and myths of American greatness around the world.
3
In business it's whether you win or lose. But when you're representing a country the collateral damage is very, very important.
Ask the farmers, industrial workers, government workers, etc. that are paying dearly the price for trump's pyrrhic win.
1
China owns a nice chunk of the U.S. - holding more than $1.1 trillion of the nation's debt. I am not an economist but shouldn't that be a consideration when implementing and prolonging a trade war?
Does it not give China some sort of leverage in these talks? If they stop buying U.S. debt or even start selling it off, won't that have a very grave impact on the U.S. economy?
Trump can't grasp these concepts but surely someone in his administration can.
1
The shutdown should continue until the next debt limit increase draws near. He should veto that too, and shut down everything until Congress balances the budget AND pays for the wall.
The problem with slapping tariffs on certain products to encourage making them here in the USA, is that in many cases we no longer have the abilities to make them. In a recent TV report about Caterpillar tractor engines, where the engine blocks are made in China, we no longer have the foundries to make those engine blocks here. Both the capacity and skills have long gone.
Therein lies the problem. It takes time and money to begin even thinking about rebuilding lost industries. While you might be able to find an empty foundry, it takes a bit longer to develop the skill sets necessary to begin cranking out those engine blocks.
1
Trump has been absolutely correct in confronting China on their trade practices. It's disappointing to see people groan over the bit of turbulence caused by this necessary conflict; it's far past time we addressed this problem.
2
China is a strategic competitor on every level.
It’s funny because although they have been thinking about this a long time (as can be seen in their political and business practices) the West (and most especially the USA) have only belatedly come to the same conclusion.
3
Trump seems to see everything in a win-lose context. The best negotiators will tell anyone that in a good deal everyone gets something they want and need. In that way, all parties are winners.
The USA will not benefit from a weak China, which will likely cause unrest and possibly even land-grabs, especially since China already is moving in on the China Sea.
3
I wouldn't bet against China, Mr. Trump--at least not the way you're going about it. The PRC and the US are indeed competing for primacy in global markets. It may or may not be true that only the US economy has the clout to take on the PRC's (I'm no economist). But the European Union may also be a player, and considering the way Mr. Trump has treated the EU, I'd not want to count on help from that quarter.
One more thing: given Mr. Trump's unbroken record of public prevarication--provably extending decades into the past--I'm wary of believing ANYTHING (caps intended) he says. Why would you?
7
Pity the cattlemen who face disadvantage selling American beef in Asia? Not me. Killing the trans-Asia trade deal was a keystone of Trump's campaign, and the West overwhelmingly voted for him anyway. They, and the manufacturers who supported him and now face serious hardship or even failure due to tariffs, had a choice: vote for the dumb bigot, or remain competitive.
Being good Republicans (oxymoron?) they'll manage to blame anyone and everyone -- hey, its Pelosi's fault -- but themselves.
I'm retired and have a relatively decent and stable income despite the massive investment losses triggered by Bush II election. I also have the longevity to look back and see, clearly, the economic ruin caused by every Republican government in my adult lifetime.
25
@Ed I am retired now with a decent income. I also have made the same observation about economic ruin. Just saying you are not the only grey head that has seen that history.
Your story re: "As Trade Talks Begin,..." states there's a March 2 deadline before the increase from 10% to 25% takes effect on the $200B in Chinese imports. Every story I've seen about the increase says it will take effect on April 1st.
What sort of deadline is there on March 2?
1
Trump may be a buffoon, but he is entirely correct on the China front. Only the U.S. can confront China. If not now, the West will be dominated by China in the decades to come.
7
@RT Trump may appear to be a buffoon to many, but he's my kind of buffoon. 315,000 new jobs in December. The highest labor participation rate in a decade. The highest growth in wages for Middle Class working American in ages, and over 3% growth. Call him what you want he's brought jobs and prosperity, and he's the first President to do more than talk about China. We have to stop China from stealing and waging a trade war against us. When they were dirt poor it didn't matter, but now their economy rivals ours and it time they start competing fairly, stop stealing, and engage in fair trade, or suffer the consequences. Its almost too late, and Trump knows that. He's doing what's right even though it may hurt him politically. That's the kind of President we've said we need. Not the Obama/Clinton poll takers. Obama never solved a problem in 8 year. He made everything worse.
2
@RT Yes, I hate to admit it but Trump is probably right about China. Now I have to go wash out my mouth for saying "Trump is probably right". But then, remember that old saying in statistics about a room full of monkeys and typewriters? Eventually, given sufficient time, they can produce the works of Shakespeare.
1
About 10% of total US jobs are in the manufacturing sector; with about 90% in the service, or non-manufacturing sector. The Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing data for Dec were not as robust as the DOL's very positive overall jobs growth of 312,000 in Dec. This ISM survey data showed overall growth in manufacturing braking by -5.2 from a metric of 59.3 in Nov to 54.1 in Dec. Employment declined by -2.2 points and product pricing declined by -5.8 from 60.7 to 54.9.
The ISM data for the much larger service, or non-manufacturing sector, which was released today
(01/07/2019), overall, showed a decline of -3.1 points in growth from 60.7 in Nov to 57.6 in Dec. Product pricing in this sector slipped by -6.7 points from 64.3 in Nov to 57.6 in Dec, per this ISM data. And, the employment metric declined by -2.1 to 56.3 percent in Dec.
With a universal set of about 163,240,000 individuals, per the DOL, in the US active labor force; working with such a large data set, it is critical to consult, compare, and contrast different data sources for a more informed perspective on an ecosystem as complex as the US economy.
[01/07/2019 M 12:40pm Greenville NC]
2
One thing is very clear: The president does not comprehend international trade. he sees it as a "zero sum" game. If "they" are winners, we are losers. And, since he gets his information from non-print sources, there is little hope for any further education on the matter. His fantasies don't always coincide with consensus reality. Meanwhile, adventurous day-traders are probably making a bundle on the chaos of the stock market.
5
@gillian-b40
" he sees it as a "zero sum" game."
The only other people who see it as a zero-sum game are the Chinese.
"His fantasies don't always coincide with consensus reality."
Consensus reality only exists in China; the rest of the world gets by with plain old reality.
2
@gillian-b40. That day trader you mention probably works for Trump
We had intended to do major renovations to our permanent home in South Florida this winter /spring. But the tariffs on steel and aluminum as well as well as other home improvement products have pushed kitchen, bathroom and window replacement products up more than 10 to 15%.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/how-tariffs-could-trickle-down-to-your-kitchen-remodel-11545742801
You add the increased labor costs and the shortage of skilled labor willing to work in the heat (no migrants) combined with the volatility on Wall Street and peak housing market you realize that this is not the time to make major expenditures on anything!
It may take a quarter or two for the average Joe to realize the gig is up but surely it is. I see no “Winners” here!
8
@Sailorgirl
You hit the nail on the head. When Trump imposed tariffs; Americans are paying for it, not China or other foreign countries. And Trump also wants Americans to pay for his wall, not Mexico as he promised. Stay tuned to see what else we have to pay for to satisfy the narcissist's ego.
2
Does Trump think a "weak" Chinese economy is going to buy more US products? That's worse than "voodoo economics". It's "idiot economics!!".
6
So far all the president has really shown is that he hated Obama and was willing to expend much energy to erase Obama's policies, his legacy. Given that Obama used his superior intellect to actually study issues like trade and the global economy, given that Trump doesn't read, gets his world view from Fox and Friends, and has only really succeeded in holding on to the money he inherited, not hard to see who's policies will actually address reality.
9
You’re giving Trump too much credit. He has largely failed at holding onto the money he inherited.
@John Griswold
"Given that Obama used his superior intellect to actually study issues like trade and the global economy..."
Given Obama's superior knowledge and homework done, isn;t it amazing that it led to the Syrian disaster (millions killed, displaced) that directly led to the rise to populism across Europe? That he never dared to cross the Chinese despite the provocations? It apparently takes a Trump to get things done.
It would be irrational to expect the so-called president to understand China - he really understands so little and has so little depth.
China's history of resistance to outside forces is the stuff of legends and there's no reason to expect them to fold in front of a weak United States leader.
The most important difference is that the so-called president has to be elected by millions whereas Xi Jinping not so much. This distinction is totally lost on the so-called president.
It's the ECONOMY and IT'S A WAITING GAME, stupid.
2
“ 'It didn’t shock me,' Mr. Trump said. 'I know what’s going on.'
” This from a man with no credibility, just chutzpah, always looking for a parade to get in front of.
6
The president has never demonstrated the slightest understanding of non-zero-sum games. Complexities are either beyond his ability to understand or he just too lazy, or both. So it is in the case of China and US: Trump thinks they must "lose" and we (he) must "win". Discussions about the realities are almost beside the point because this comparatively moronic person has been put in charge by the party of presidential dictatorship–the Republicans.
9
@AMR
AMR - zero-sum strategy is one that the CHinese have been playing for a long time. Hence the systematic theft of intellectual property, millions of Chinese students in the US, and cybercrime. The US has only now awoken to it - thanks to Trump (and certainly not to the US Chamber of Commerce).
"Top administration officials are confident they are in a strong enough position to win significant changes, including an end to China’s practice of forcing American companies to hand over intellectual property..."
Trump still doesn't seem to realize that no one is the world is insulated from the economic effects of other countries. One of the big recent Dow drops was after China confirmed a projected slowdown, and Business Insider published an article saying Apple's warning to investors proved Trump's "tactics" should continue (even though much of Apple's problems are competition in China and slowing smartphone upgrades, both due to high pricing - and upgrades not giving much advantage).
Meanwhile, an article today said Telsa is breaking ground on a new gigafactory in China - which no doubt benefits China... I don't know if Telsa had to give IP with the deal. Trump should forbid any US companies from opening factories or entering Chinese markets until the IP theft situation is fixed... though this isn't really theft - US corps CHOOSE to agree with this to boost profit. He should also forbid China from buying US companies - which is a legal way to get high technology. There's also direct theft by hacking computers. NONE of this is addressed with tariffs or upsetting global trade.
We'll see how all works out. The problem is long-term effects take a while to show up, and by the time they do it's too late to fix the problem.
3
And the American worker will continue to suffer. You can go about bragging about 310,000 jobs added in December, but it is just 310,000 more low-paying, no benefits, jobs. America workers are earning less today than they were in 1950 when adjusted for inflation, less Americans own their own home, and at the current rate, another catastrophic economic crisis will occur much sooner than anyone will anticipate. Just like what Bush’s policies did throughout his term and the devastating economic collapse that occurred right at the end of his presidency. Trump’s political agenda will lead to an even greater economic collapse by the time 2021 arrives and possibly another Democrat will be left to clean up the mess and be vilified like Obama was by so many at the end of his presidency, even though he did clean up the unbelievable economic mess he was handed. When he should have been given praise for getting us back on our feet he was scolded for everything he did. Even if trump gets any concessions from China the American workers will not benefit from it. It might put extra profits in the off-shore bank accounts of corporate executives, but the people won’t see anything. Trump, and his delusions, are going to leave this country at the verge of collapse by the time he is done dismantling everything that made us once a great country. The hatred of immigrants, the division among the people, the corporate greed, the alienation of our allies will end up crippling our country. Mark my words
5
President Trump should implement the full range of sanctions he has against China and then proceed with running our nation. When the Chinese want to stop stealing from us and want to offer an even playing field in the global market, they can call Trump. If not, our economy will suffer a little; their economy will collapse. And in short order, Trump will be dealing with a different ruler of China, perhaps even a democratically-elected one.
3
Donald Trump has little contact with reality. He claimed that China was paying the U.S. Treasury billions of dollars resulting from his tariffs on Chinese goods. Those billions are paid by American consumers, not China. Trump is hurting farmers, manufacturers and consumers in order to win what? He has no clue.
8
Isn't a lot of the economic impact currently facing China from the TPP we didn't join?
And aren't we on deck for tariffs from those nations as non-signatories, just like China?
Call me crazy, but I think Chinese investments in Africa are going to give them considerable insulation from a decline in global economy. And they really just have to stop building islands to find a few trillion dollars.
2
I fully support Mr Trump trade war against China. It's the only thing in my opinion that he gets right. China is not our friend. China goal is to replace the US as the world superpower. While should the US let that happen?
If Apple and other US companies whose foreign profits (China included) are held in offshore countries to avoid paying Taxes in the US are hurt by the trade war, so be it.
In war, whether military or commercial, there are collateral damages and suffering. I rather the suffering of a trade war for at least the rich will also be paying a price unlike a military war whereas most victims will come for poor families.
We are talking about the future of the world here. Which world would you like future generation to live in? A world dominated by the US or China.
Let's say there were an asteroid big enough to destroy Earth tomorrow.
On one side there is a Chinese Spaceship ready to take people on an alien planet where Chinese rules will apply
On the other side, there is a US Spaceship, ready to take people on a planet where US rules will apply.
Which Spaceship would you board?
For those defending China, think about that for a minute. Besides if you were in China, you would not be able to post a comment.
5
@Chaks
" Besides if you were in China, you would not be able to post a comment."
. . . unless you are a Chinese government agent.
4
@Chaks
All major super powers eventually run out of steam. Spain, England, Rome, the Dutch, and the list goes on.
Our time has come, and no amount of wailing and fighting will prevent it. History says it all.
1
“China’s not doing very well now,”
True. But the main question is not the deficit but rather Chinese theft of intellectual property, cybercrime, Taiwan and illegal transfer of know-how from the Chinese working in the US. The Chinese are willing to wait Trump out on these, hoping that Democrats will be more accommodating.
3
Trump is delusional if he thinks he will not harm the US economy and the stock market with his moves on trade and immigration. Everything he is trying to do pushes up costs, which reduces profit/increases losses. There will be industries and individuals who benefit, but overall the US economy will be harmed. The fact that China feels the negative impact of the US tariffs first as a result of lower production is a red herring, not a reason for optimism on Trump's part. The cost of the tariffs falls on Americans, not on China, and there is a lag as the cost filters through to businesses then to consumers. When it hits it will hurt.
Regardless how we described Apple's loss, it was a significant blow to our modest economy and shaky stock markets which in practice projected future weakness in our economy. So Donald Trump may be over enthusiastic about trade negotiation with China. We can afford a quick and shortened trade war with China without much suffering. But any lingering and prolong disputes will expose our weakness in economy. We rely on various kind of goods from China to support our information based society. Our economy is just too intertwined with Chinese economy.
1
China usually plays the long game and knows the short attention span and lack of discipline in US politics. They also do not need to worry about winning the next election, although maintaining "harmony" at home is important, China has a robust state security system and controls nearly all information access by its citizens. Trump and the GOP will feel the political pressure on this trade war long before Xi does.
So, China will give Trump some "yeses," to minimize economic damage while negating those with other actions to further their long term plans for regional power and technological independence. "Winning" some concessions will not allow Trump to gain a strategy victory; if he cared about that he would have stuck with the TPP to counter China.
Once this tariff sideshow is over US consumers and businesses will have suffered billions in tariff excise taxes, loss of markets and will be marginalized from leadership in the Pacific region. China will continue its strategy regardless.
14
2019 may be the year that DJT and his band of octogenarian-mega-rich-we-made-our-wealth-before-globalization donors learn trade is global and tariffs won’t transport them back to their glory years when they influenced Congress and the economy.
18
All Trump believes in, is his ability to satisfy his base, i.e. what looks good on Fox. Tariffs are anathema to the Chinese (see 'Century of Humiliation') and are therefor the least efficient trade strategy. Tariffs also impose a high cost on US consumers and businesses. Yes China' s economy is going through a bad patch. Pushing it into recession risks a global downturn including in the US. The best approach to IP theft, forced tech transfer, etc. is to close the door to western technology in cooperation with our allies.
13
@van schayk The booming economy helps everyone. Your shortsightedness and automatic knee jerk reaction to an anti-Trump post shows you will never give him credit for anything. Everything he is doing is meant to help everyone, not just his base, not just rich people. Please actually look at things with an open mind instead of pure hate.
Liberalizing the Chinese economy which appears to be the goal of the administration would be very good for China and the Chinese economy.
What it will do for the US economy is much harder to gauge.
3
The embarrassing over reaction by stock analysts to the 660 point drop in the Dow and Powell's alleged damaging raise in % rates shows how little is known of where the economy is going. The employment numbers indicate the economy for now is in full recovery. Which the GOP during Obama's term willfully tried to short circuit. The luck of the GOP might be coming to an end though. Trump will continue to promote his trade war policies and in fact the global economy is slowing. The USs economic expansion will slow as well.
18
This is a dispute the US needs to win. I lived and worked in China in the 1980's and 90's. I met a number of senior mid-level people. In the 1980's they told me that they agreed with Deng and that he Chinese needed to learn from the US. In fact one official told me that the Party wondered how the US could become the most powerful country in 200 years. In the 90's the officials would tell me that China was the greatest culture in the world for most of 5000 years and was ready to resume its position at the top. Interesting, because they have a different versions of the world order than the Western countries do. The Chinese understand they need money to resume the title and to create their version of hegemony. They have done it by undercutting our industries and using that money to buy influence the world over. Where that influence cannot be bought they plan to use military muscle (i.e., South Chine Sea islands, Taiwan, etc.). We should not be undercutting the Western version of on the World Order (i.e., our norms, and values) so we can feast on inexpensive goods. It is time we woke up to the threat.
27
While I generally agree with you, Rod, I can't help but ask myself some questions, "What is the actual threat?". Is it that a country of 1.4 billion people should assume it's role as a leader in the world? Do they represent a military threat? Would the countries it is trying to influence actually buckle under China's authoritative boot or just simply take what they need from it and otherwise thumb their nose at them?
All I know is that this trade war is hurting EVERYONE and disrupting markets worldwide, affecting people's real wealth and worth. I'm not so sure as you in these matters.
4
@Rod
China has gone so far beyond your portrayal of that nation as merely one of inexpensive goods. Wake up, it is not the 80s or 90s. China is so far more advanced in technology - from 5G to artificial intelligence to quantum physics to biological research that you are out to lunch. There is no "threat" - other than China is knocking us out as the #1 economic powerhouse in the world - it has no need for military muscle or might.