Unemployment rate difference between France and Germany is the result of two factors:
- one is the timing of pension reform, France is stabilizing just now since there were still generations of workers that were in the bottleneck of going to retreat and they were holding job positions that would have naturally gone to youth - Germany has finished the process a few years ago
- the second factor is the demographic dynamics, France has had higher natality in past decades, younger population, meaning that more young people entered the work market that got out of it - while in Germany more people get out of work market than enter it
Both factors create a huge statistical difference between the two countries, however, France's near future is much more economically and socially secure
Youthful and diverse France is succeeding
Don't believe the hype
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Its hard these days for politicians in France. Macron is probably going to be a one term president. Tax cuts seem to be the only politically acceptable avenue available to stimulate job growth in France. Of course austerity at the same time defeats the purpose. Macron has made dramatic attempts to make himself relevant in foreign policy. But trying to buddy up with the dismally unpopular Trump hurt Macron.
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The French depend on Merkel, and both France and Germany have populism issues on their borders. Macron reminds me of Trudeau in Canada . Two individuals at the wrong place at this time in history.
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The French are the only people who will pitilessly scorn a timid president for not being ambitious enough (calling him soft like Flambi, a jelly dessert) and to do the exactly the same thing to another for trying to deliver on his campaign promises, too much, too quickly.
Since when have reforms been just a walk in the park?
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The article mentions growth rates, while it should be using growth per capita. Even though it's likely France's population is quite steady (and thus the growth and growth per capita are closely aligned), why not use available numbers to make the story more informative?
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@James
GDP per capita, annual growth rate, latest available, 2016 to 2017, France is 1.7%
For comparison, Germany 2%, US 1.5%
data
https://tradingeconomics.com/france/gdp-per-capita
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My prediction: Macron will be ousted prior to the 2022 elections. Why? Because you cannot hammer a square peg into a round hole, at least not without collateral damage.
Neoliberalism has failed, it moves wealth from wages to assets making lower strata of workers and young people increasingly poorer. A tax break will not stop the hemorrhaging. Investment, better paying jobs and protection of workers from cheaper foreign labor, on the other hand, might.
Macron is an ideologue, not a pragmatist. Unfortunately, Le Pen is just waiting in the shadows waiting for her time.
If European politicians like Macron do not drop the idealism in pursuit of more practical policies that limit globalization, I am quite sure the recent populist wave from Italy to Sweden will turn into a Tsunami.
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@Barry
My prediction: Macron won't be ousted prior to the 2022 elections.
Why? Because even if a majority of French complain like they've always done, next to nobody calls for the President's resignation. Although grumpy, the electorate knows there is no available option, neither from the right nor from the left. Each side being more pathetic than this other.
According to the polls, for decades the French have been calling for reforms but NIMBY!
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When crossing the Rhine one leaves a country with 9.2% unemployment and enters one with 3.5%
French politics. for decades,has wrestled with: How can France have the economy of Germany, but keep the lifestyle of France?
M. Macon believes dragging France into the age of the global economy will revitalize its economy. Alas, it also will lower the income of the working class, with political consequences to follow just as in Britain (Brexit) and the US (Trump)
The global elite, though, loves M. Macron
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@Talesofgenji
it's true. France's problem is that it is too balanced and is surrounded by unbalanced/reckless partners (subprime/'PIIGS'/recklessness, widespread austerity, demographic decline/emigration, social dumping, regulatory dumping, tax dumping/tax avoidance, widespread implementation of unbalanced policies favoring supply, growing inequalities/poverty, low pensions, underinvestment, low/poor Defense spending, etc...). difficult to have good growth and low deficits under these circumstances.
France's partners, don't hesitate to be less reckless and more balanced. Merci :-)
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86% of SMEs were ready to hire in May (BPI, the Public Investment Bank). SMEs were quite confident in July (EY survey, 07/2018). it's difficult to find candidates in all sectors in Rennes, for example (Ouest France, 19/09/2018). Venture capital investment increased 90% in H1 2018 compared with 18% in Europe (Venture Pulse, KPMG, 07/2018). Business creation is quite good (INSEE). Businesses death rate among the lowest in EU (Eurostat). France, European country which has been receiving the most foreign industrial investment for years (EY).
France among the G7 countries that invest the most (UK ONS, 11/2017).
poverty is limited, lower than in most of developed countries (Income inequality update, 11/2016, OECD). income inequalities have not increased in 30 years contrary to the other developed countries (Morgan Stanley, 11/2015 ; Bloomberg, 03/10/2018). there is real-wage growth (Bloomberg, 04/07/2018). middle class is still solid (Pew research center, 04/2017).
quite good Health/Healthcare. quite good Education.
Cost of living is reasonable ("Is your country expensive ?", Eurostat, 24/08/2018).
many dwellings are built (more than 400 000) and housing is affordable (Eurostat data : total housing costs/disposable income & housing cost overburden rate).
France is the "new best friend" of US on Defense (Financial Times, 01/2016).
France on top of the Quality of Nationality Index (Henley & Partners).
etc...
French complain too much.
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Thomas Piketty, author of Capital in the 20 Century wrote in Dec 2917
"It is customary to contrast Trump and Macron: on one hand the vulgar American businessman with his xenophobic tweets and global warming scepticism; and on the other, the well-educated, enlightened European with his concern for dialogue between different cultures and sustainable development. All this is not entirely false and rather pleasing to French ears. But if we take a closer look at the policies being implemented, one is struck by the similarities.
In particular, Trump, like Macron, has just had very similar tax reforms adopted. In both cases, these constitute an incredible flight in the direction of fiscal dumping in favour of the richest and most mobile."
Details follow , then the conclusion
"For the first time since the Ancien Régime it has thus been decided in both countries to set up an explicitly derogatory system of taxation for the benefit the categories of income and wealth held by the most affluent social groups."
http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2017/12/12/trump-macron-same-fight/
Mr. Macron, Wunderkind of the global elite, is forced to do a "marche arrière"
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@Woof
You are right ; both Trump and Macron carried out a tax cut.
However situations and goals are different; Trump did cut taxes in an already hot US economy and low unemployment (app 4%) thereby raising questions on the intent.
In France, Macron did the tax cut in a high unemployment context (app 9-10%) with the clear and shared objective to create more jobs behind higher investments.
The thinking was that it will help drive unemployment down (unemployment being the main social injustice and voters concern) and fostering a stronger economy which in turn would then provide leeway for additional social measures.
Not sure whether we will success in turning around unemployment and re-ignite growth; still Macron's intent was articulate, clear and made sense.
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