What's not mentioned.... environmental issues or did I miss that.
2
whats really sad is the bitter comments from democrats that are blinded by their hate of the President. forget about every thing in this pact. Just pay attention to one clause that provides veto authority to Washington from prohibiting any of its trade partner to make free deals to China. This will be in every new deal we will be making with Europe, Japan and others. Simply put this is a death blow to China by isolating it from any free trade deals with US, Canada, EU, Mexico and Japan. This will curb their ambition to replace existing world order by unfair trade policies forced IP transfer.
read this article.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2166702/china-threate...
You can hate trump all you want and mind you he gives you a lot of material but this one should unite us all against a country that is absolutely hostile to our prosperity. We all are Americans and there is no red America or blue America. Said one great man.
3
Gotta wonder if forcing Canada to sell American wines has something to do with trump’s winery that he bragged about.
2
It looks like Americans do not have a grasp of what "Putting US wines in Supermarkets" will accomplish. Mainly allow other major World wine producers to do the same, essentially duplicating the Liquor Stores where US wines are widely available. So that is a Hollow victory for US ! It does not increase their market share one way or another.
4
"If the new deal is adopted by all three countries..." That's a big IF.
There is no "if" about the Democrats winning control of the House in November. Once the Democrats control Congress, then it's the Democrats who will be determining American trade policy again. The House can also be expected to take back active involvement and oversight in all its areas of responsibility.
Trump has been a warning, but the very worse of the experience of having Trump in office is nearly over. If Trump resists the temptation to start a war with Iran before the end of the year, he will not have done anything irreversible - especially if Democrats can avoid allowing Trump to seat another Supreme Court justice.
The new wave of Democrats who will be taking a seat in Congress will be a decidedly different mix of people than the gaggle they replace. Here is where we begin to see the upside of the Trump administration - the backlash of excellence. The reaction of the American political class to Trump is going to be the emergence of a new level of excellence in political candidates.
Next year there will be a small core of Democrat Congresswomen who have the shared background of either high rank in the defence establishment or high office in other areas of public service. Empowered by #MeToo and the reaction of American women to 2 years of Trump, these women will form the most powerful bloc in the new Congress. They know how to fight and win.
Change is coming and not too soon. Shout Hallelujah!
6
@Colin McKerlie
Oh I believe. Hallelujah!
er, ah, off topic?
have some more cool aid.
1
What do you know? A better deal for the United States, a victory for US automobile workers and dairy farmers...and no "trade war." Liberals at the NY Times were 100% wrong, again.
3
@Micoz-I agree 100% that NYT were 100% wrong AGAIN.
I do remember vividly what NYT said "Hillary has a 91% chance to win....." on 10/18/2016. Click here;
http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-upd...
1
Reading the comments it's easy to see how changing the status quo is difficult. Once the head is lodged in the dark place, it becomes comfortably numb, unable to recognize or think, just cling to the imaginary past.
2
@Vic - be careful who are implicated.....what did your mom say about pointing fingers... 3 point back at you
empty agreement, side letters negate real change! another trumpian victory. keep up the pointless work- oh wait- news conferences are work!
1
Did you watch The Con Don's news conference yesterday? He wanted to flout his nothing new supposed "trade agreement" - all he did was rename NAFTA.
Did you see how angry he was when reporters wanted to talk about Kavanaugh? Did you hear him tell the ABC news reporter that "she never thinks", with a smirk. Did you see his Robber Baron cabinet boys smirking? Especially Steve Munchkin.
It made me sick. I am mad as hell that people like this have been allowed to take over OUR government.
They think they have won. Boy, have we got news for them. All the social goods they have tried to destroy can be improved and reinstated. All the money and resources they have stolen from WE THE PEOPLE can be taxed back. All the laws they have broken and lies they have told can land them in jail.
WE THE PEOPLE, led by Socially Conscious Women and men must make it so.
NOW is the time.
5
Make no mistake: Canadians aren't easily browbeaten and we have long memories. Anyone with Canadian friends on Facebook might have noticed the proliferation of our Canadian Dairy industry logos, which certify that dairy products marketed here are of domestic origin. Many of us have no interest in purchasing American milk and milk products. We'll be specifically looking for the little cow with the maple leaf, in blue and white, before we buy. Word is spreading. Any additional US dairy sales to our country might well be negated by our resistance to them. We can also choose wines from many sources, including our own country. My currrent selections include Australian moscato and German riesling, as well as domestic brands from Canadian vineyards.
The rest of the deal seems to be a reinvention of NAFTA and we're fine with that. We get to keep the trade-dispute tribunal. We're happy with concessions on auto tariffs, although a quick glance around our Canadian mall parking lots will show that the glory days of Ford, Chrysler and GM appear to have faded. We enjoy a wider range of options now.
We've allied ourselves with the US on many occasions, from military engagements to scientific programs, medical research, energy production, arts and entertainment. We extended our hands after 9/11. It's just what we did then, and hope to continue. Still, our bonds of friendship have been shaken at best and, at worst, irretrievably broken. Thank Trump for that.
10
@Brenda Tate Excellent Comment. Especially re the parking lot surveys. I've been doing the same in Toronto & area. Buyers really like Japanese, S. Korean & German makes - 96%. Ford, GM, Chrysler - 4%.
The high-end models - Acura, Infiniti, Lexus, & Audi - sell very well.
4
Up to this point BC has, as well as liquor stores (Public and private) a special license that allows sales of only BC wines in some grocery stores.
1
@llaplander I do not think there is anything wrong with it. US products are widely available in Liquor stores since US prohibition.
Putting US wines in Supermarket will also allow other major wine producers to do the same, essentially duplicating the Liquor Stores. So that is a Hollow victory for US !
2
American critters are making noise about TN visa but are oblivious about millions and millions of people from India on H1B visa. Wait till a national security issue like war happens and all those Indians compromise USA's security apparatus as almost all the private defense /aviation industry data is handled by Indians.
4
Golly-gee he's the best deal maker in the history of the world. Those Canadians and Mexicans didn't know what hit 'em! Right!
It sounds like someone applied different wording to an already existing deal, which means USA car buyers will pay more for the same car, among other tweeks and Don the Con gets a photo-op where he can reveal his utter ignorance about everything under the sun. All that and he still has time to write love letters to the North Korean dictator.....what a guy!!
11
As a former private union member:
Private unions in the US died after 1994 when factory owners could meet demand for wage increases by moving the factory to Mexico.
NAFTA did in private Unions
======
Read
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/us/union-jobs-mexico-rexnord.html
3
Buried in the last paragraph the US government has no interest in lowering healthcare costs.
10
Trump just ripped up NAFTA and reintroduced it along with Canada and Mexico. But for one or two changes, it's still the same old NAFTA.
3
This just in. Trump found a pot of gold and is giving every American $500 with a new coupon for either a chicken or a vegan diner in every pot. New York Times readers react. This can't be so. He's an animal. He's horrible. He's our boogie-man. We must spew hatred at him and everything he stands for. Nothing good can ever come from him, except things like a better trade deal for America with Mexico and Canada, a major tax cut and reform of corporate taxes, better relations with North Korea - however difficult, real support of our only true friend in the Middle East, Israel, a place at the table for the American working class, sanity in federal policy when it comes to sexual issues on school such as transgender bathrooms or the rights of the accused. Oh and a new Supreme Court justice and, God Willing, now another one. No he's just a terrible person and we must hate him. He said we'd get tired of winning but will we ever get tired of whining?
3
@Jason McDonald Well said! How can you be from California??
2
I don't understand what will happen to financial markets as this faceoff continues. China owns a huge amount of American bond debt. There was also an incident in the sea near China with warships in the past 24 hours. Trump wants isolation. China wants world leadership. How can this turn out well for us?
7
@Linda Johnson who wins the vast majority of American debt?? Americans! China owns a much smaller amount in second place with Britain in 3rd. And besides, what could be worse for China than not getting there money back? They have much more to lose than us.
2
Theater, drama, stage management, the symbolic uses of politics. Any of these words or phrases sound familiar? Again, Trump is playing the American people. Largely cosmetic concessions and changes labelled the greatest trade agreement in history.
P T Barnum, you may well have met your match.
23
@rjon or we could have stuck with the apologist who created a large social program during an economic crisis (Shumers words) and couldn't careless America gets exploited on everything because he was too busy worrying about solar farms and girls using the men's room. Thank God he gone!
2
"will grant longer protections to American biologic drugs, against biosimilar competitors, and it will probably raise the profits of those drugmakers when they sell in Canada. "
As if the makers of biologic drugs needed more profits. Take Humira, a biologic drug used for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and more, that has changed the lives for those of us who depend on it to keep our autoimmune conditions in remission. Humira is made by AbbVie, and is the best selling prescription drug in the world. The price of Humira has risen from about $19,000 a year in 2012, to more than $38,000 in 2018, an increase of 100 percent. Many patients simply can't afford the cost, which varies depending on your insurance, forcing patients to ration or skip doses. Biosimilar drugs would reduce the cost, and make treatment available to many, changing lives, but the opposition from pharmaceutical companies is fierce. Prices in the U.S. are the highest, since we don't have a single payer system that would allow negotiation of prices with pharmaceutical companies. Sounds like "new NAFTA" is going to make it less likely we will see lower priced biosimilars any time soon, and will keep prices of biologics high for Canadians too.
15
@Edie Clark so that you get the next big drug to solve a dreadful problem! Takes over 1 billion to bring a drug to market for just the ones that make it. Tell you what, let's make them broke and see how you like suffering?
1
Any deal that Trump does which benefits the USA is a deal worth doing!
4
@MIKEinNYC
But does it benefit the U.S. or just him and his cronies? Car prices going up doesn’t help us, all these prices going up doesn’t help us. And once they go up, they rarely come back down.
2
At the end of the day the deal is better for Americans and the North American continent than the previous deal. If it doesn't cure cancer or create a Utopian society then so be it, but it is still better than NAFTA. I believe President Trump has delivered again on his promises to make the US economy better for Americans.
More smoke than fire. Other than dairy the changes seem largely neutral and in some respects potentially harmful to the US like increasing auto prices because of the content rules although the auto makers will probably mitigate one way or the other. An elephant was promised, a mouse seems to have been produced. It's done serious damage to wider US/Canadian relations though.
21
"low-cost countries outside the United States"? Really?
6
It just seems like a slightly refined Nafta, contrary to the headline "Trump just ripped up Nafta". The modifications are slight and gradual.
17
I believe that the reporting on B.C.wine is not correct. I believe local BC law prohibited other than BC wine from being sold in the stores and that this new NAFTA will prohibit that practice. I doubt, however, that the new NAFTA requires BC stores to carry American wines. I assume they will do so if they believe it is in their economic self interest.
11
Not true. Wines from everywhere are available. In government liquor stores ( yes we have private ones as well ), regions are clearly geographically marked, including large sections from the US.
@UpperWestSider
2
@UpperWestSider
WestCoastCider is correct. I'd only add that BC Government liquor stores display wines in groups by region of origin & display BC wines more prominently then the wines from other Provinces, the US or other countries.
2
@WestCoastCider Yes, but now they will also be available in grocery stores whereas previously grocery stores could only sell local product.
While negotiating with mafia-style tacticians is never easy, the end result, due to the resolve of the Canadian negotiators, is an agreement that retains most of the qualities and defects of the former agreement. It is the end-result of a self-manufactured "issue" in Trump's brain - nationalist politics, and not something that will turn the economic world upside down in either country.
Nobody can predict with any confidence whether this agreement will actually be ratified by the three countries, and if it is, what it's eventual incremental impacts would be. For example, when the North American Free Trade agreement was done back in the 1980s, every one predicted the end of the Canadian wine-making industry, but it thrived.
The negotiating conditions have always been asymmetric because trade is a larger part of Canada's GDP than it is for the USA, and why Canada must further diversify its trade. The inroads by the US pharma industry will harm Canada's health care economics, and there is no improved access to international procurement on government contracts. As well, it is especially damnable that the phony, illegal steel/aluminum tariffs be sustained in such an agreement, side letter or no side letter.
Based on what's been revealed so far, this agreement is probably much better than no agreement, but the whole renegotiation was unnecessary and in the final analysis produced little. It's mainly political theater, and it damaged international relations.
28
@Mark The steel tariffs are doomed under WTO rules. They were relatively minor imppact on Canada compared to the US. Previously, steel companies had specialized their canadian and us foundries to produce specific grades. Now the Canadian foundries will have to make all the grades to satisfy the Canadian market. This will increase costs in Canada by a few per cent. This will reduce trade in both directions by the same amount. Previously, for every ton of steel Canada sold to the US, they bought a ton back. On the other hand, in the US steel prices jumped nearly 20% as american steel produces just chose to match the new foreign prices. The steel tariffs are actually a win for Canadian manufacturers as they now buy steel for much less than US manufacturers.
1
As a Canadian who has done extensive business with his American neighbours, both professionally and personally, I can no longer support Trump's version of America. I know that not all, in fact, possibly most Americans, do not agree with his bully tactics, in many arenas but I will not be supporting him in any way. No more California cabs or grapes and no more trips to Sanibel or NYC while he is in office. Sorry to all my American friends but we all have to take a principled stand, don't we?
29
It pains me to say anything positive about Cheeto, but...this isn't a terrible deal. In fact, it's probably one Dems should have and could have fought for and negotiated. Of course, had the Dems done that, the GOP would be screaming about favoring Big Union and telling us that the prices of our cars would be skyrocketing in the next few weeks. Which is probably why the Dems were too chicken to renegotiate it to begin with.
7
The Democrats are sufficiently intelligent to appreciate that insulting and bullying your neighbor and ally for a name change isn't a "win". Our Prime Minister rose above it, as he should, but millions of Canadians will remember and shun American products, particularly hormone infested milk. A "win"? Really?
6
@Akron Rick Obama chose to focus on negotiating TPP rather than updating NAFTA. In fact, many of these new terms, such as the pharmaceutical one and the dairy one were already included in the TPP.
3
Does any of this help women? Lost in Trump's attacks is that it helps anyone, if anything, are male-dominated industries. It is not just this nonsense, which mostly 'rearranges the deck chairs', not making substantial positive changes for the country, but simply favors some industries over others. Meanwhile, he will be rolling back environmental protections - many of these favored industries are climate-destroyers - as well as decimating the social welfare systems that disproportionately help women and children. As usual, Trump has wasted energy and effort, made a great fanfare, with the media complicit, in his malevolence.
7
@James Igoe
It helps women who work for auto companies or who own dairy herds.
2
@Akron Rick - Very few and almost none, while in the big picture, he attacks women...
@James Igoe do you have the number on the ratio men to women in those industries or are you going off a guess. Along with that these are very large industries that we were being shorted on. So it makes sense trump negotiated those terms.
1
Whether the Trump’s new deal is positive for the country is good for the country will be tested obpver time. But how the deal is reached will not be good for the country and the region in long-term. Would Canada and Mexico ever trust US again?
8
@Chris No, but I don't believe they ever did. The basis for mistrust has just been cast in sharper relief. These deals are about each side fighting for the interests of its stakeholders. Never pretty.
2
@Mark As evidenced by the fact that Canada's top priority was insisting on binding mechanism for enforcing the trade rules. Canada is fully aware that the US has no intention of honouring their obligations in most of the treaties they sign.
Anyone else wondering how much time was wasted by White House staff trying to think up e a name for the new agreement that would generate the acronym "TRUMP"?
8
In a normal world, we would have negotiated changes in a 20 + year old trade agreement, and senators would have been involved to ensure passage later on. There would have been no fanfare - as this is the way business is always done.
Instead, our salesman in chief pretends that he has crafted something new, better, even best ever.
Oh but how we need a return to sanity.
17
@Terry McKenna he did.
2
Trump's claiming a success seems to trigger the need to prove him wrong. Regardless of what you think about Trump, this deal makes positive changes.
5
@AACNY As the article points out, that remains to be seen. If it results in more auto manufacturing moving overseas because it increases the cost of building cars in NA, it will have introduced negative changes.
by definition, everything about any trade deal is inflationary for U.S. citizens. Farmers export more creating shortages here, prices go up. Oil is now exported here, prices go up.
Import tariffs increase prices here. Why isn't the money collected under Tariffs returned directly to U.S. citizens at large? Instead, it is being used to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy.
Nothing ever changes in this country. The lobbyists own our Treasury.
10
@phacops 1
"Farmers export more creating shortages here, prices go up."
That's not necessarily true at all.
1
Wait for the Canadian boycotting of US dairy products. We don’t like growth hormones and other additives. We have a tiny dairy industry and we prefer not to help the US behemoth.
Such great emphasis on automobiles that are killing the planet, when all three countries should be eliminating petroleum fueled cars.
I don’t know anyone “sighing of relief” more likely we are seething with rage at how backward this deal is.
18
@M.Welch I'm relieved and not seething with rage. Not much has changed, but the Trump wrecking ball could have resulted in no agreement, which would have been much worse for the economies of both countries.
You seem to be talking for all Canadians, but a great many Canadians will go about their weekly grocery shopping as usual and as most Americans do, not even bothering to look where the stuff comes from.
1
@M.Welch So you think if US products are cheaper, Canadian will not buy them? very WRONG!
2
@Mark Except for the fact that at a retail level, the idea that american milk is cheaper has always been exagerated. The price today for a gallon of milk in the us, adjusted to 4l and Canadian dollars is 3.90. It's 4.27 in Canada and been that price for years. 2 weeks ago it was over 4$.
Read the label. If it says 'made in America', put it back. We have the whole world to support, we don't have to support America. The resistance continues. And it's NAFTA whether Trump likes it or not.
13
@Marlene
Thank you. I agree. I’ll never buy another Canadian product.
1
So Trump re-wrote Nafta. I don't like anything Trump does, but I am noticing that he has a tendency to do what says he is going to do. Anyone who thinks he will be easily defeated in 2020 is a fool, as is anyone who is taken in by him.
A lot can happen in two years, so at this time, predictions are just guesswork. But let's hope, that somehow, the massive "Ship of Fools" that our country had become, manages to float into 2021 with a decent captain at the helm.
14
@Peter Zenger
"I am noticing that he has a tendency to do what says he is going to do. "
Like building a wall with Mexico's money, replacing the ACA with something we're all gonna love, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and passing a tax bill that actually reduces the deficit? Like that?
16
@Peter ZengerWhy don't you like anything Trump does?
1
@Akron Rick
Yes. And like reducing drug prices for US citizens. This deal just levels the playing field at higher prices. What has Trump done to help patients and drug consumers? We are still waiting . . . .
Trump did not "Rip up" Nafta. By hreatening to "destroy" the Canadian economy, he forced the Trudeau government to make some unfair concessions. In a pathetic attempt to bring attention to his lame, political grandstanding, Trump, or somebody, re-named Nafta. We'll see how far this gets in the senate. There's always something spiteful, even evil, as the basis of any Trump initiative. And it always descends into chaos at the drop of a hat.
18
@JCam how was it “unfair” to the Canadians?
@Scott Tariffs!
This is a fake win for the USA. You can't look at these trade agreements in a vacuum, because there's always a domino effect elsewhere. Plus this deal was forced through with bullying tactics by Trump. Canadian consumers don't have to buy American dairy products just because they're on the shelf. Therefore, you have to factor in anti-trump sentiment to the trade deal. Just look at how anti-Trump sentiment has affected his own businesses. Ivanka's is gone. Not winning.
15
This will only encourage more robotic factories where supervisory engineers will bring up the average and the robots will make the cars.
6
@alkoh That's going to continue to happen with or without trade deals.
What would have been really great (again): an agreement to allow the free movement of goods and people across artificial borders that solely serve to impede the economy in which everyone except the government lives.
9
If $16 /hour is a deal breaker for automobile assembly line, then American's auto industry deserves to be driven off the cliff. The developed world is moving into clean cars, ie electric and hybrid, high quality cars, assembled close to 80% by robots. Labor cost is insignificant. If Made in USA cars at $16/hr wants to export into Mexico and Canada, then USMCA has no relevance - you compete with the world and Mexico own car industry, sponsored by Chinese at $7/hr will see Trump's USMCA neutered.
3
Canadians from the beginning of the NAFTA renegotiation viewed NAFTA as a free trade agreement with some managed trade elements to accommodate special needs in each of the 3 countries. We thought NAFTA would benefit from the inclusion of several provisions developed during negotiations of the Trans Pacific Partnership in recognition of technological developments. While accepting the need to fine-tune some of the managed trade elements, we deeply resent the aggressive extortionist demands & tactics deployed against us by the Trump Administration (TA) over the past 13 months.
Acceding to all the TA demands would have gone a long way to transform the current free trade NAFTA relationship into a mercantilist relationship where under Canada & Mexico become a subordinate hinterland to the US.
Canada & Mexico together managed to block the mercantilist drift of the negotiations for the most part but, aside from the incorporation of some TPP inspired reforms of a largely technical nature, we see little of merit in the changes to NAFTA agreed upon.
Fourteen months fending off coarse US threats & demands on trade & defence issues has left Canadians with reduced respect for the US. This is a state of mind that will colour the relationship between Canada & the US for a generation.
24
This is not an incremental change, forcing an assembly worker in Mexico to be paid $16/hr will really stop many auto plants from going there. When plants relocate there it's only b/c of decreased labor cost. This has to offset cost to build new plant and train new people. Usually this is feasible when paying a Mexican worker $5/hr. At $16/hour? Forget it, no one is moving their plant there. People saying otherwise must not have any manufacturing experience.
7
@asdf You are incorrect about most of this. The 16 dollar wage only kicks in for the portions of the vehicle made in Mexico and excludes all the imported content, which is a substantial part of the car's cost. With automation being what it is, incremental wages on a fraction of the car's value will require little adjustment and little change in the comparative cost analyses for the companies operating or intending to operate in Mexico. This is mainly cosmetics, and like for the tax cuts, average American workers will see little incremental benefit.
1
The article is way too vague on the Chapter 19 provisions, and doesn't explain how the tribunals to settle disputes between the parties will be chosen. Give Trump credit, he abandoned the idea of an investor-state dispute court that would let corporations sue governments that are "infringing" on their profits through "undue" regulations. The 3 governments will appoint those who will handle disputes regarding dumping of goods, tariffs, and subsidies. Of course the re-vamped TPP may lead to that anyway, so we all need to be on guard for the future advancement of corporate power over people.
6
Trump scraps TPP which opened markets for US products to 478 million people. Then raises all this fuss for incremental improvements to NAFTA with combined population of 157 million.
Is this winning?
19
NAFTA revised is, overall, a good deal for the three countries. For labor and parts suppliers in all three the increased level of North American content required means more jobs and more business.
Most significant in the long run, it keeps alive the world's greatest natural market, North America. It also offers struggling Central American neighbors the prospect of having their economies survive a coming renegotiation of CAFTA-DR. Right now the only way to deter migration from these mostly poor, violence riven places is to criminalize immigration and turn ICE into a USG sponsored kidnapping ring. People who risk their lives coming here need A Right to Stay and, as with Mexico, that requires much more than honest law enforcement; it requires a decent economy and jobs. The likelihood that CAFTA will be revised rather than jettisoned is welcome news on the immigration front.
Do not think the catchy $16 an hour minimum wage solves anything. It's not simply, as the article states. a matter of time before Mexican wages in the auto industry catch up. The provision is a perverse incentive for European and Asian car manufacturers to invest heavily in robots in their Mexican plants, reducing the number of workers and increasing their skills to where remaining workers command the $16 wage and the modernized plants keep right on rolling.
4
This NYT account is bizarrely out of step with every other single report on the agreement. For all of Trump’s huffing and puffing, the new deal
contains minor improvements from the existing 25 year old agreement. On dairy, for example, Canada agreed to permit limited access for certain dairy products like freeze dried milk and milk protein, which is only about 3.6 percent of the market. But under the TPP, which Trump stupidly pulled out of, Canada had already committed to access for 3.25 percent of the market.
On autos, it’s unclear how the $16 an hour minimum wage will be enforced, or whether it applies only to Mexicans. Will it also apply to some non-union auto workers in the US who earn about $10 an hour? Local content requirements will most certainly raise prices for new cars as well as car parts (expect your repair bills to go up considerably), but it’s not clear new, well paying jobs will be created. Instead, auto manufacturers may move production to third countries like Brazil, or if they invest in new facilities here in the US, expect them to be more automated than existing plants— with fewer workers.
None of this will happen without Congress, especially if the House turns Democratic in the midterms. Mexico has a new President coming in and Canada is going through federal elections, which might complicate things.
Trump simply wanted NAFTA II to be his agreement. The rest of us are just glad his sturm und drang is over, for now at least.
9
@C.M. Lund
Have you ever worked in a factory? I have.
You can't name one auto maker paying $10 an hour in the United States..
Why would American automakers spend billions to build new factories in other countries, then go out and find skilled labor.. They are making Nikes, they are building cars.. You would have to import too much material. They would lose out on hundreds of millions just to save $10 million in wages? How many people do you think work in a factory?
2
Yes, I have.
FYI, Toyota pays an average wage of $10 in that labor union loving state of Texas.
3
The whole 'dairy' thing is being way overemphasized and mischaracterized by those who have known better in the past, as it was by Trump on the way to this new disagreement.
Canada has imported a lot of U.S. dairy for years under a very generous quota - it is only once past that quota that the high tariff kicks in; in contrast, the U.S. has a lower tariff on Canadian dairy imports but a very stingy quota. Upshot: the U.S. exports 6 times as much dairy to Canada as it imports with few if any U.S. exporters paying the Canadian tariff, while most of the Canadian dairy xporters pay the American tariff. The U.S. complains that Canada unfairly supports its dairy industry, but the U.S. supports its agricultural sector as well. Finally, dairy accounts for about .2% of U.S. trade with Canada. Whoop-dee-doo!
More broadly, while the U.S. had a small goods trade deficit with Canada in 2017, it had a larger services surplus, giving a goods and services trade surplus, not deficit.
Finally, NAFTA has needed to be reworked to account for the changes in products and industries over time, among other things - all 3 countries knew that before Trump was even elected. In fact, the TPP which was scrapped was to be a template for a new NAFTA, some of which has been adopted in the 'new NAFTA'. Trump's confrontational approach had no constructive purpose beyond creating a faux issue and victimhood for the base.
Victory? Much ado about nothing.
11
@Me But you pay attention to facts. Trump supporters don’t. They don’t pay attention to the amount of dairy exports. There are a lot of voters in Wisconsin. They think Trump helped them and Trump acts like he helped them. It’s about how you can dupe the public. Not about facts.
9
Interesting article- I was fully prepared to accuse Trump of being an insubstantial noisemaker on NAFTA, but according to what I read here he may have driven actual improvements for American Labor in this revision. We've seen FAR too much offshoring, to the detriment of workers who built up their employers over the last 4 decades. My Mexican Dodge RAM truck was cheap, but it's cheaply made. A Girl Scout kicked my bumper and the repair bill was $2G. Basically, I just paid for an engine & gearshift with seat belts.
As for changing the name... that can cut both ways. Trump will now own the USMCA for better or worse.
4
@Joey That Dodge Ram you criticize was designed in the good old US of A. The Mexican manufacturers simply built it to Chrysler's specifications. Seems to me maybe you should be buying a Toyota or Nissan or maybe a European truck (except there is a 25% tariff there).
2
Does anyone really believe car companies are going to just uproot their production lines in Mexico and come back to the US? All that is going to happen is car’s will just get more expensive for Americans. It’s a good thing the average American got a $72 a year tax cut. It’ll help when buying a new, $70,000 Ford Focus.
13
@Josue Azul
Why would a person buy a car that too expensive? Don't buy the cars.
1
So, car manufacturers “must pay a minimum of $16 an hour in average salaries for production workers.” “Minimum” and “average” make an odd equation here. It’s not a minimum wage (I believe $16/hr would be a reasonable minimum wage for a skilled autoworker); it’s a minimum average salary. Importantly, is this a mean or median average? What’s to keep an auto manufacturer from reclassifying a VP as a production worker and paying him $2.5m/yr to drive up the average? I guarantee you Trump has thought of this which is why it was written the way it was rather than instituting an actual minimum wage.
2
@Julia Fernandez
Not average. $16/hr minimum to every worker.
3
I take exception with the NYT headline implying that Donald J. Trump has a "new" deal. Very little will change from the NAFTA agreement except for Trump re-naming it to sound like the United States Marine Corps. Trump and his 95% (ers) have no idea what was in the NAFTA agreement to begin with and are unaware that most of the Canadian and Mexican products crossing the border are produced by subsidiaries of American corporations.
It will take a while but Trump's 95% (ers) will feel the pain of Trump's "new" deal by 2021 just as the true effects of the tax cuts begin to hit them hard, as well. That's the only good part in all this.
10
Winners: Honda and Toyota
Losers: Ford
3
Ford can learn to make good cars in the USA like Honda and Toyota. What is not discussed is that Mexico and Canada must renegotiate the agreement every 6 years (a win for Mexico and Canada in that they want be negotiating with Trump again) and the agreement has a termination of I beleive 16 years. This allows readjusting every 6 years.
I believe the six year review is a one time deal in the final agreement....thereafter it’s a peaceful 16 year renewal.
2
"Among the small-but-significant items in the new agreement are a measure to push Mexico to make it easier for workers to form and join labor unions."
Classic. While savaging unions in the United States, the Republicans are boosting them in Mexico to raise the cost of Mexican manufacturing.
5
@MisterE Classic, while actually taking steps that protect workers, increase wages, and actual trade, Democrats rip the idea on the grounds they couldn't accomplish it.
3
@Constance Underfoot
He's noting the irony, that the GOP has been against unions and raising wages for decades in the U.S. As for your second sentence, all 3 countries have known for some time that the trade deal needed to be reworked, not because we were such victims but because much has changed, such as products and industries. The TPP, which was scrapped, was actually to be a template to renegotiate NAFTA and included measures, such as raising wages and labor standards in lesser developed countries, that have been adopted in the new NAFTA. As for actual trade, that remains to be seen due to the complicated nature of intermediate goods, but realize that while we had a small trade deficit with Canada in goods, we had a larger trade surplus in services, meaning a goods and services surplus in 2017 with Canada.
1
@Me And yet here's Michigan Representative Sander Levin outlining why Democrats are against the new NAFTA Bill and begging that Republicans don't push it through: He said Mexico must outlaw so-called protection contracts that lock in low wages for workers represented by government-connected unions and to abolish its labor boards that lack worker representation.
“Without those changes, I don’t think Democratic votes will be there,” the congressman said.
So holding back the betterment of Americans in preference to foreign workers. Classic.
Thanks for pointing out the irony.
Thank you, President Trump, for ending Obama's eight years of economic stagnation and making structural changes that will ensure our long-term prosperity. God bless you. God bless America. Keep up the good work!
5
@Peter Murphy You miss Jim Jones and David Koresh which explains your comments.
4
@Peter Murphy Lies. An objective examination of economic data during Obama's 8 years shows steady improvement and recovery from the deepest recession since the great depression. Trends in the two years of Trump largely continue at the same rate. Most of the changes to NAFTA were already on Trump's desk when he took office, having been proposed by the Obama administration. So in this as in much else, we see a mental and moral midget (Trump) standing on the shoulders of a giant.
21
@phil
Tell us about the increase of US debt by over $12 trillion in the Obama years. Any clown could take a country out of a recession with $12 trillion. Now every administration after Obama must deal with the $20 trillion plus debt and interest payments.
I can't see anything seriously wrong with this deal, and it seems there are a few things right with it. There's no reason to assume that everything Trump does is disastrous, and also no reason to even consider voting for him just because he finally might have done something right. Trump is doing far worse than a broken clock, which is right twice a day.
13
@Teed Rockwell
What rubs me and a lot of other people wrong is that Trump makes it seems as if the U.S is such a victim by misrepresenting the facts, pretends that without him there would have been no renegotiation - all 3 countries knew and wanted the deal to be renegotiated to account for the passage of time, before Trump was in the picture, so there was no reason to be so publicly confrontational. Some of the same would have happened if HClinton had been elected.
1
@Me I agree. Almost everything Trump does and says rubs me the wrong way. But it doesn't make much sense to say first that he "ripped up NAFTA", and then say these were modest changes that HRC would have done.
So, it will be easier to unionize in Mexico than in the States? He is buying off the farmers after he threatened their livelihoods. In other words, it is basically what we had but now banks and pharmaceuticals can reap greater profits from foreigners? What a joke. Many people will think this is "new and improved" too: "SAD".
9
@Tim Lynch
The plan was to help farmers. The China tariff negotiations will solve more of the farmer problems.
Those living in the U.S. that buy drugs in Canada will be paying higher prices. Drug prices for U.S. consumers are high and they will become higher with this agreement.
6
Trump was absolutely elated with this deal and was so excited and animated about it I was amazed he didn't make a claim that because of it every American would become a millionaire because of it. I just remind people that he's been in office less than 2 years and you don't turn around trillion dollar economies like the US in 2 years. In fact I've been predicting higher inflation, higher interest rates and cuts in government spending that will undercut the social safety net and may impact mainstream programs like Medicare and SS as a result of his policies.
Trump falsely bragged about the fact the growth in GDP was higher than the unemployment rate for the first time in 100 years when it was only 10, I want to remind people the last time it happened was 2006 a short 2 years before the Great Recession of 2008, my point is Trumps policies could all come crashing down. Let's see if by 2020 economic growth has kept up with government spending and generates the revenue Trump expects to finance those tax cuts, let's see if we bring manufacturing back to U.S. shores, trade deficits get cut
with China and Mexico, that we have reasonable energy prices, income growth etc before proclaiming Trump some economic wizard. His casinos did very well in AC for a while before the air went out of that balloon don't forget.
10
@JohnW Thank you for having the courage to itemize the facts.
2
@Jacob— it’s not courage, it’s just kind of him to explain, since the rest of us are exhausted detailing all the ways Lord Fatness is destroying our country, our democracy, our economy and our sanity.
2
NAFTA has been replaced by U-SCAM, given that the tariffs on Steel and Aluminum still remain!
6
@canukm
Like what you did with the name! Kudos to you!
4
@canukm
Great acronym!
Québec import US dairy products ? Trump must be joking.
Grocery stores will have clearly marked segregated dairy sections :
"Etats Unis /U.S." and "Québec/Canada ".
We don't want hormone-adulterated US milk products for a few cents less ,thank you.
3
USMCA is NAFTA by another name. More than 90% of the agreement is unchanged. To give credit where it is due, however, it does appear that some of tweaks that will be incorporated into the newly-renamed NAFTA will be improvements. For example, the content rules for determining which cars could be sold duty free were always too lose and subject to abuse/manipulation. The new wage rate provision could also be an interesting approach to addressing a very real problem -- and a solution that will help workers in all three countries. To know whether these changes will have the intended impact, however, we'll just have to wait and see since the devil is always in the details -- and the implementation.
1
A new agreement is a good idea. The jury is still out and will be for a long time on this one. I favor free trade but that becomes a farce after all the exceptions. Sort of like the old joke: What’s the definition of a camel? Answer: A horse designed by a committee.
3
NAFTA cost us 3,000,000-5,000,000 jobs. It ripped the heart out of manufacturing in the Midwest and Upper Mideast. Even today, companies are picking up entire plants and moving them to Mexico. If it changes that dynamic, it's good.
What I am not sure about, and have heard nothing about, are TN-1 visas. These MUST be cancelled.
2
@GeorgePTyrebyter The Trump tweets and FOX News talking points you presented are getting old. NAFTA had nothing to do with the major wave of job losses and plant closings. Those began in the late 1970s and accelerated under the Reagan administration.
12
@GeorgePTyrebyter
The rust belt was well under way by the 1970s. NAFTA did not do that. Blaming it on NAFTA, or migrants, keeps us from addressing the real issues.
8
Quebec election results coming in at this very minute & it’s the worst turnout for the Liberal party since 1976. This is of course the provincial party as opposed to Trudeau’s federal Liberal party but Justin has to be feeling a little sick....
5
@rebecca
An election that so heavily rewards the lightly populated regions while taking Montreal entirely out of the political picture for the foreseeable future is making many feel a little sick tonight.
4
I see many thoughtful comments regarding future implications. Many having negative impact on everyday Americans.
What everyone is forgetting, is that the "deal" it is all about continuous praise to "The Donald". Just think of it as adulating to, or praying to a vacuum chamber.
6
The US can import milk and cheese but smart Canadians will know what to select even if the cost is more. Just look at how we purchase produce. "Grown in Canada" labels abound in the grocery shelves at Sobeys, Metro, etc. and well they should. We don't need the compromised food quality that comes from the States.
26
@David He's up to 3.5% of the market,the TPP and EU bargained for 2.8% each and it doesn't kick in until 2020 and will take 6 yrs.to get to the 3.5%
3
The First thing I check on labels is country of origin or manufacture. I refuse to buy any or all products from the US.
13
"Trump Just Ripped Up Nafta." JFC, was idiot wrote that. NAFTA is still intact with a small number of changes.
11
Correction: Trump tweeks NAFTA and renames it.
25
That's the Trump way. Just stamp your name on other people's work.
10
First Trump blows up a trade deal that more or less is working right, has been of great benefit to all concerned, and whatever fixes might have been needed could have been accomplished without all the tantrums. In the process he gets our closest and biggest trading Partners rightfully outraged at us. Then he replaces it by moving a lot of chairs around the deck to wind up with very little changed.
I'd call it fairly typical Trump: a lot of yelling and screaming to get people to hate us and very little more.
19
Trudeau turned on the dairy farmers he swore to protect. Shame on him for trading them into the mouths of wolves and eventually starving them out.
3
Trudeau did no such thing. It’s only a 0.34% increase from what has already been agreed upon in the Trans Pacific Partnership....
The Devil is in the details!
16
@Jackie M Reality check. Our dairy farmers' key concern is the skim milk powder which is cheaper in price and quality. That will allow dairy products giants like Saputo and Agropur, who produce 70% of dairy products within Canada, to use it in our products without having to disclose it on the label. That U.S. ingredient will hurt our farmers' margins considerably.
1
I agree that these aren't blockbuster changes but they don't seem bad to me. Increased wages are good either at home or abroad. I'm not sure how these agreements are tweaked over the years and whether this is really significant compared to typical adjustments but I don't view it as badly as many of the readers do.
4
Despite the NYT headlines, Trump didn't rip up NAFTA and despite all the bluster from Trump and a new name, it's NAFTA upgraded for today's world. Some provisions haven't been finalized, some provisions are optional ($16/hr wage), and some slightly better. Otherwise, Obama would have negotiated about the same deal.
14
@Scott
Are you basing your conclusion on this article (which says the opposite) or your own reading of the document.
If the latter, how about the veto authority over third party trade agreements? What’s your opinion of this provision?
1
@Sean Clause 32, not a very fair deal for Canada to give up our sovereignty in making trade deals.
@Scott
The $16 minimum wage and union rights will improve the lives of Mexican workers and help the USA too.
It’s very telling that a new deal that clearly benefits American workers and industry is causing liberals fits in trying to find something bad in the newly negotiated North American deal. NOTHING Trump does is good enough for you all. Grow up.
5
@DanielMarcMD Query: What benefits for American workers and industry did you see in this agreement? Other than a win for the dairy industry, all I could read was how higher consumer prices will be the result of these new deals. Com'on Doc! If 75% of car parts must be derived from members of NAFTA and the majority must be produced in manufacturers paying $16+/hr wages, who do you think will bear the brunt of the increased manufacturing costs? Do you think that corporate executives who generally earn 257x the salary of their avg worker is going to take a pay cut? Are you that simple!?
19
@JustYourType
If you raise car prices, you don't have to buy!!! It's common sense...
@JustYourType I concur with your reply to @DanielMarkMD, but want to note that the "win" for the US Dairy industry may not amount to much, as there's some question about the extent to which Canadians will pay for the privilege of ingesting extra hormones and antibiotics.
What no free trade for pharmaceuticals?
4
@Sutter No actually more protections for pharmaceuticals in Canada and Mexico, our pharmaceuticals (in Canada) will most likely get more expensive.
3
I wouldn't trust the DJA to be predictive of anything other than profits for the 1% and with the pharmaceutical provisions, I am sure Canadians will love paying higher prices for their medications. What's next a GOP healthcare plan for Canada.
5
@Moses
A healthcare plan for Canada? Ahahahahah. Socialized healthcare in Canada is worse than our past with VA healthcare for veterans. Fortunately, Trump has signed into law the "Mission Act," which integrates all of the past 7 VA healthcare programs and networkings into one referred to as the CCN, which establishes regional networks for Veterans to seek private healthcare, which is more efficient, cheaper and higher quality, than government managed and provided healthcare services. The healthcare provider then submits a reimbursement request to a regional TPA, who then gets reimbursement directly from the VA, adding a private industry-like proxy for managing regional contract awards. What you want is the government to be as off-hands as possible, leaving as much of the profit function that drives quality up and costs down. There's more to it than that, but all-in-all, veterans will get the healthcare they need, when and where they need it, without dying from minor oral infections, for example, because government-ran facilities have no equipment or don't have the time to fix the issue for several years because it's so inefficient, with exorbitantly inflated operational costs and lazy union, government workers that milk the clock and are accountable to no one.
In Canada, it takes years to get a simple blood-test. Socialization is never the answer, only making things worse. What they need is to allow private industry to takeover and ensure free-market efficiency.
@Jeremy Sm
Called for appointment on Friday, had it on Monday, blood tomorrow morning , next appointment next week, did wait longer than 2 days, blood work next day, i just do not like when people exaturade , this is in canada
1
@Jeremy Smithson - Funny I just read your comment to a good friend of mine in Toronto, he listened and laughed out loud. The he stated you obviously know very little how healthcare services are provided in Canada.
1
Given the extent to which automobile production is automated, how much difference will this actually make in employment numbers, and will it incentivize automobile manufacturers to automate even further?
Given that most milk production is through megaproducers and not small family farms, is any of this actually helping workers and small businesses, or is it just ginning up corporate profits?
9
I don’t know about elsewhere , but here in Vermont , many small farms sell to big companies like Aramark.
1
@Frank: It'll make a difference to those who can remain working or get hired.
There is always an incentive to automate but machine operators are still required.
Please don't take this win by Trump too harshly.
1
@Jp The machines are increasingly autonomous and the number of people needed to operate them ever fewer. Like the tax cut, this seems to have small, temporary benefit for those lower down on the food chain, while the majority of the benefit goes to those at the top.
1) This isn't a done deal yet - there are restrictions which Trudeau has imposed which are not yet decided
2) Is Jared a real person or a robot? I think we need to look into this.
9
What in the world??? An auto industry will gladly keep its production somewhere that pays a whole $16/hour. Big whoop for getting more blue collar jobs here in America.
5
So, I suppose all of you naysayers are smarter than the market that hit all time highs as a result of this deal. Must be bad for business and the country and they don't know it, but all of you have it right.
1
@Steve “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
― Benjamin Graham
This is the short run.
5
Don't know about you @Steve but increases in the market do squat for me. I can't afford to play the rich man's game. Maybe if the Middle Class made a larger share of the profits, We could ALL figure out a way to prosper.
7
@Steve
Perhaps it missed you that market may be up just because the uncertainty has been lifted.
5
Curious, to allow unions in Mexico, while still union-busting in favor of corporate power here... maybe this will make Mexico Great like the US was when Democrats ran things for 40 years and got all the good stuff here, high taxes on the rich, free university educations, the Fairness Doctrine that prevented propaganda creating suckers like now and strong unions that built an actual middle class. CEOs who lived on the same street as workers, they would be ashamed to pay as unfairly as now.
9
@Susan Kraemer: The middle class started losing its collective wealth in 1973.
The middle class wealth was built on the manufacturing sector. You're not going to get that same wealth back with unionized burger flippers.
What you won't admit is that the current loss of the manufacturing sector was due to our consumer choices. We choose imports as is our right. But don't pretend it will have no impact on the economy especially to the jobs engine that drove your golden age.
BTW Next time you talk with your friends and neighbors about breaking off from the US and becoming independent or joining Canada you might want to raise the possibility of joining Mexico. Then write back to tell how that conversation went.
2
@Susan Kraemer
Which free university educations?
@Sean In the 1960s. Also a lot of men came back from WWII and got a free education under the GI Bill.
Justin Trudeau has finally bitten the bullet and addressed Quebec's intransigence on giving up its dairy subsidies. Wisconsin gets its cheese into Canada and Ontario keeps its car assembly production at the tune of almost 2 million vehicles/year, more than 5 times what Canada's consumer's could absorb.
This is not rocket science. A number of Canadian Government economists in Ottawa said back in July that Canada had to trade milk for cars to get a revised trade agreement now renamed USMCA.
Change is hard, particularly once policies that have endured resulting in entrenched constituencies. Now, Trudeau has to address the political turmoil that Quebec will create. Its hard for me to imagine the Quebec separatists will gain much traction over spilt milk.
If this agreement passes the necessary steps, U.S. dairy producers will be able to export their dairy products to Canada without tariffs until they equal 3.59% of domestic Canadian production.
That’s so slightly higher than what would have been granted to U.S. producers under the Trans-Pacific Partnership at 3.25% if Trump had not walked away from that Partnership. We’re talking about a difference of 0.34%.
It would be nice for the NYTimes to clearly spell that out. As a Canadian I will make absolutely sure to buy only Canadian dairy. Simple as that.
11
@Jackie M
Me too.
Only Canadian dairy .Fantastic Québec yoghurt and cheeses !
U.S. dairy makes you trump !!
@Hochelaga & Jackie M
I am not a fan of tariffs to rearrange economic realities to settle domestic political issues. However, the Trans-Pacific Partnership involved China which Trump deemed the bad actor and separated out South East Asia from China for negotiation purposes. Canada had gone along.
Canadians are price sensitive like most others in the world. When one can purchase Muenster cheese $2 CND/kg cheeper as a US import compared to Pine River cheese say at a number of "Independent" grocery stores or a slightly cheaper price for baked goods because of the powdered milk ingredients from the US, inroads into the market will be made.
Of course Torontoites will remain their snooty selves.
Canada and Mexico will rue the day they trusted Trump.
6
@Chris Morris Doubtful. He is so short-sighted, he fought for a few quick-fixes while opening the door to MUCH more manipulative behavior in the future.
3
The important thing about this deal is how relatively unimportant it actually is by comparison to how important Trump will try to make it seem to make political hay out of it. Like all of Trump's nonsense, what he says is reliably empty hyperbole aimed at his base, and the rest of us are "losers" I suppose, according to his way of distorting the world.
20
@Samantha
This is based on your reading of the agreement? If so, what do you make of the veto power over third party trade agreements? Important and worth crowing about? Or unimportant and exaggerated? I’d be interested in your view since you’re clearly an expert on the importance of this agreement.
1
Hmmm, interesting that the financial services industry can now sell products in Canada and Mexico. Considering that Washington is possibly being plundered by Trump & Co., will we now have to worry about Big Finance coming in and raiding Canada’s big five banks. They are very rich and ripe for picking, or rather raiding.
14
So all the bluster about the worst deal in history gives way to some modifications they may we’ll have been overdue.
Pres Trump’s negotiation style was as transparent as it was damaging.
Insult our closest allies and impose preemptive tariffs to force the issue, all unnecessary as they are allies; all he had to do was call a meeting and work it out.
8
All told, seems like a minor improvement to NAFTA, but still an improvement. Worth all the diplomatic capital expenditure and bluster? No. But far from Trump's biggest failure.
7
@Alex Translated into plain English, you can't call it a failure without appearing detached from reality. The cognitive dissonance of a successful Trump presidency must be excruciating for the left. Look on the bright side though, he is producing tons of work for therapists.
2
@Jack the failure is that the last time Canadian's hated the US so much was during the Vietnam war. That will have spill over effects....
On the dairy industry becoming somewhat more open to the US, the reality is the EU Canada Trade Agreement last year also allowed dairy concessions and so far, the EU is selling about a third of what they expected. With the Mad Hatter sitting in the WH, it is doubtful the US will benefit much from the dairy component of the deal. As for the rest, all I can see from this article is the US did not really get anything better under the deal. It encourages higher wages for auto employees in North American, not just the US. Unions in Mexico were encouraged. No environmental protections from our trading partners and vice versa.
8
@Patrick
My experience of dairy products in the EU, Canada, & the U.S. is that such products from the U.S. are generally significantly inferior in quality to those from the EU and Canada. So, it's no surprise to me that they should want to protect these fine industries. I guess the question now is whether Canadian consumers will be willing to pay more for higher quality, locally-produced dairy products or whether this concession by Canada will simply result in a race to the bottom.
8
@Philip Trump's temper tantrum style already initiated a boycott of U.S. products in Canada.
Add to that the fact that Canadian dairy products are required to contain about 1% the blood and puss allowed in U.S. dairy products, and I don't think Canadians are gonna start caring to buy our garbage products any time soon.
3
@Patrick. This is so true. I know most Canadians will not be buying US milk products which allows for the use of hormones which is banned in Canada. I like visiting the US and find Americans to be wonderful people however I'd pay extra for Canadian milk. I will go out of my way to avoid American dairy products.
5
The most interesting parts of the agreement(75%/40% rules) are also the least understood because so few details are provided. Even if all the details are provided, predicting how these two rules tossed into the algorithm will actually play out in real life is near impossible. Why would $16 send jobs to the USA? There seems to be a substantial spread between $16 and USA average wages to still be exploited without even considering the additional costs per worker in the USA above their hourly pay. Does it raise wages in Mexico or does $16 cross the threshold that incentivizes the car manufacturers to upgrade Mexican factories with more up to date robotics and automations so they can cut the labor force while raising the wages to $16 for the fewer workers still needed? Or in other words, this Minimum Wage will do all the things Republicans warn about whenever a raise in the US minimum wage is brought up(cost jobs, add costs to consumers)
6
@Edward
My experience of dairy products in the EU, Canada, & the U.S. is that such products from the U.S. are generally significantly inferior in quality to those from the EU and Canada. So, it's no surprise to me that they should want to protect these fine industries. I guess the question now is whether Canadian consumers will be willing to pay more for higher quality, locally-produced dairy products or whether this concession by Canada will simply result in a race to the bottom.
6
@Philip Perhaps you make a good point but of course, my post in no way references the dairy aspect of this deal which quite frankly is a snooze fest. It is referencing the new rules for the auto industry that require 75% of the value of a car to be made in NA and 40% in factories that pay the average production worker a minimum of $16 hour.
Every trade agreement has a few things in common. The rich will get richer. The poor will get poorer. In the name of competition, corporations will be able to ignore US regulations that protect our air, our water, our food. Big corporations will get bigger, smaller corporations will get taken over.
3
So much for cheaper Canadian drugs. That should finish off the transition to dog food for our elders.
7
“It’s not Nafta redone, it’s a brand-new deal,” President Trump said at the White House on Monday.
America is waiting, sir.
What spe-CIFICALLY is brand new?
We take our brand newness with spec-IFICITY.
What spe-CIFICALLY achieved rec-IPROCITY?
2
Greedy BigPharma, as usual, got some goodies in the deal.
6
Well with an influx of American dairy products poutine should be cheaper and all those hormones should make my favorite Canucks stronger for shoveling out from the next global warming induced blizzard.
4
@PJR You poor thing.
1
The U.S.M.C.A.
Just from the name alone I must assume this document was composed and presented to the world by...Canada.
You see, when I was in grade school, 4th grade under Mrs. Schultz at Castle Hill Grade school, I was taught that, when introducing a group of people, one always put themselves last. It was the polite thing to do.
In this instance I, for some reason, hesitate to say, "Thank you, Canada."
8
There has to be more then this! All the wailing and gnashing of teeth and we get a bigger slice of the Canadian cheese market. Beyond a tweek to the auto content amounts all we get from the GREATEST TRADE DEAL EVER!!!! is a plate of gouda?
Don't know if deals merits are being under reported or our eras PT Barnum has shown the egress again....
19
@Kevin K I may be wrong, but I thought it was the other way around. Canadians now get cheaper US milk and Cheese... American Cheese in every Canadian household... yummy.
@Kevin K
You left out the open door Canadians now have to the over priced US prescription drugs. They will not be labelled for the patient to see they will be known by their high prices and we will boycott them.
If this is a great deal, why do I get the uncomfortable feeling that $16 an hour just became a ceiling for jobs, not a floor...?
Is it better to "bring jobs back to the US" when those jobs raise prices of goods - and the imported alternative good's prices are raised because of tariffs? Seems like the US consumer pays more either way... and since, over the last 40 or more years the GOP has systematically done everything they can do to gut unions, and since (quite coincidentally, I'm sure!) the real wages of the US middle class workers have stayed essentially flat, (while incomes of the 1% and above have skyrocketed), are we really improving things for US workers and consumers by making everything cost more, while we bring more $16/hour jobs to the US?
I can't help but think that the way to really help US workers and US global competitiveness might be to make good educations for US kids the norm everywhere, and college more affordable for everyone. Trump seems 'focused like a laser' on bringing back the manufacturing economy of the 1960's... but without the unions.
20
@Jim Brokaw...agreed ..where in the US is $16 considered a good hourly wage? Some states are elevating minimum wage to $15 per hour. Scanning through this it seems like a bunch of minor tweaks to NAFTA combined with a lot of bluster about how great it is.
10
@Frank. They negotiated that wage for Mexico. Our big deal is the 3rd pillar. He is smart. http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/10/01/massive-win-nafta-loophol...
@Frank
Everywhere the minimum wage is not being foolishly raised to $15/hr, which only puts poor people out of work.
One personal concern regarding the Dairy Regulations of the new agreement: I have not eaten cheese in non-spray-can form (In U.S.: Easy Cheese; In Canada: 1,2,3, Cheese!) in more than two decades. Are these products considered "dairy" or a jet-streamed, oil-based edible ooze, and if so, will they remain non-tariffed and affordable. or should I stock up now?
5
How about alphabetizing to get CAMUS, CAnada, Mexico, US.
5
Because - I’m guessing - the order of the day is America First...
2
how about adding the superlative Supreme in the front of that and get SCAM US
18
@LuckyLindy
Albert Camus, existentialist Nobel writer.
Wrote the play "Caligula " the mad Roman Trumpist emperor.
Theatre of the Absurd.
1
It's becoming more obvious every day that Trump's diplomatic and trade initiatives are going to lead to a big increase in inflation -- which will be paid for by the poor and middle class while corporations reap higher prices and the wealthy enjoy record stock and real esate prices. Hard to understand why Trump's "base" continues to cheer him on -- unless they haven't figured out what is going on. Yet.
17
@DC...I can answer that...because we are making so much money......4 months to go and already set a record in sales and profits for the year......Obama who?
2
The economy’s been “juiced” by the tax cut for the wealthy. We’ve seen this before with Reagan, Bush I and Bush II. Profits are pumped for a short while, but they go to shareholders, and not into circulation. In two years max, the whole mess will come crashing down. And then a Democratic president will be elected to clean up the Republican mess, and take the heat from the right for the economy cratering.
26
@Robert Williamson
I shouldn't be surprised that "progressives" don't get economics; after all, the whole progressive ideology is based on a misundrstanding of economics called socialism.
1. "the profits are pumped for a short while, but they go to shareholdersm and not into circulation." Where do you imagine they go, under the shareholder's mattress? Do you think the shareholder who made the profits from investing might be likely to reinvest his profits? Why wouldn't he. And what do you think is the result of corporations, for example, having more money invested in them rather than less? Jobs? Higher wages? Capital investment? No?
2. How do tax cuts have only a short-term effect? Why do tax cuts produce some instability you imagine, which will cause "the whole mess to come crashing down."? Do you mean that high taxes produce some sort of economic stability?
Can you please take a stab at answering my questions. Here's a hint: leave aside the inane, stupid, progressive, ideological slogans.
1
Great....
Guess who gets to pick up additional costs to cars and trucks, not to mention cheese. It isn't Canada or Mexico.
8
@Mike James
Have you checked the price of pork lately, now that the Chinese aren't buying?
It's amazing that it took a reality TV personality/supposedly real estate titan to achieve a good trade deal for the American people - speechless
4
For he love of god, Tony, there ain’t enough Canadians to make an infantismal dent in the US diary market. We got a rebrand. End of story.
5
@Tony it's a small entry into the Canadian dairy industry (less than 4%) I know most Canadians will not be buying US dairy products which allows for the use of hormones which is banned in Canada. I like visiting the US and find Americans to be wonderful people however I'd pay extra for Canadian milk. I will go out of my way to avoid American dairy products.
1
In my neck of the woods where forest fires are a big problem, Trump is like the arsonist who starts the fire, then congratulates himself and takes hero bows when the fire is finally extinguished. But alas, everything is damaged and singed, and everyone suffers because of this arsonist's fire.
So sorry, Canada. Please remember the American people did not elect Donald Trump. Trump lost the popular vote by approximately 3 million votes in 2016, and we should never let him forget that. Trump was chosen/anointed by our antiquated Electoral College system.
35
@PB Make no mistake -- the American people elected Donald Trump. He lost the popular vote, but the American people, as a whole, elected Donald Trump. Roughly 40% still support him, after all of this. This *is* America.
10
@Jerry B
More fuzzy Republican math, Jerry.
1. Fact: Trump lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College vote. The popular vote is all the American people that voted. The Electoral College vote is not "the American people as a whole"; it is representatives from each state, most of whom work in politics and the government and represent a political party.
2. Fact: 41% support Trump; 52% disapprove of Trump (Five-Thirty-Eight, 10/1/18). 41% is not "America," 52% is.
Trump has never received even a 50% approval rating (a majority) since he has been in office. Maybe he is "your guy," but he is not "our guy" as a country of people "as a whole."
1
@PB Was he or was he not elected by the American people? I was simply pointing out the ludicrousness of the OP's statement:
"Please remember the American people did not elect Donald Trump."
Like I said in my initial response, after all of this, his approval rate is still roughly 40%. A mind blowingly large 40%.
1
Remember the days when some people would glare at you for driving a foreign car. Don't be buying those cheap Japanese transistor radios. Fast forward to now. Somewhere in the dairy section at a store in Toronto a furtive hands reaches out for a brick of good ole' American cheese. Quickly the hands places the brick under some produce out of sight. The individual is caught at the check-out line. Scowls and outright jeering erupt, "American cheese eater, American cheese eater."
Meanwhile out in the parking lot a giant replica of a dairy cow flashes with neon sides, "Buy Canadian, Buy Canadian." Elsewhere, later that night a cheese vigilante group meets to hatch plans to break into several stores to remove the interloping cheese. Their intentions are to melt 2 tons of it and pour it in the St. Lawrence just above the American side Niagra Falls.
That old saying is true. You can lead a Canadian to cheese but you can't make him eat it.
12
I would be happy to buy Tillamook cheese if my grocery store carried it. But even with a zero tarrif it's not going to be any cheaper than Canadian cheese.
2
@richard wiesner you understand completely.
@richard wiesner: "Remember the days when some people would glare at you for driving a foreign car. Don't be buying those cheap Japanese transistor radios. Fast forward to now."
That was generally the labor wing of the Democratic Party doing the glaring. Now that attitude will earn your the label of xenophobe, regressive and deplorable. But does this mean the folks on the NYT board will quit making fun of lower middle class folks who purchase their underwear at Walmart?
Nafta has been beneficial to all of us in North America, in spite of what Trump has said. We should all be happy that the agreement has been largely maintained and that the renegotiation has modernized it to account for changes in technology and views on labour and environment. Let's hope that it leads to continued prosperity and a reduction in all the rhetoric that divides us.
12
@Bob: "Nafta has been beneficial to all of us in North America,"
Wow - "all of us". That's some mighty powerful projection you have going on there.
I live near the border and I used to go to the US to buy things like cheaper dairy. Not anymore. Now I’m not buying American products if I can avoid them.
19
@Anna But what if the American products in Canadian stores had just as much quality control and were the same price, maybe cheaper? Would you buy it then? Or is it just because of American politics? Not that I'd blame you.
1
@Scott- the hormones and lack of regulation would give me pause-I generally by organic which tends not to be cheaper. But this specifically is due to politics unless and until the US government improves.
5
@Mike James PM Trudeau wants to be re-elected, so of course he puts a positive spin on this. For that reason he cannot say that it's a good day because Canada dodged a bullet, by sacrificing the dairy farmers rather than the much larger group of auto workers. The US side also kept the tariffs in place on steel and aluminum. Not a great day, but not as bad as it could have been. The dairy tariff changes are trivial in the larger scheme, but allow the big buffoon to declare a "big win". There were other smaller changes in the wording that seriously encroach on Mexican and Canadian sovereignty, but that is not a new thing, is it? The Romans, Greeks, and British had empires. The USA has an Imposium. That is a structure wherein it imposes its will and exacts tribute without occupying territory,
"Among the small-but-significant items in the new agreement are a measure to push Mexico to make it easier for workers to form and join labor unions"- This while the Trump administration and the republicans have targeted and decimated unions in the US. May be Mexico should push US on this matter.
15
Another fire that Trump started, came running with a garden hose - now wants credit for not burning down the house. Typical showman.
29
I read the first line of the article, where it tells about that there is something for everybody, then it lists farmers, auto companies, drug companies......HUH?.....What InTheHeck could you possibly give drug companies that they don't already have? Maybe a law forcing all middle class people to spend every nickel they have on drugs?
30
There's an old saying "the proof of the pudding is in the eating". In this case the proof won't be apparent until Trump is gone. Just like the effects of the tax cuts...
12
Looks like a win for American workers and business. As for Trump, just another talking point that won't matter in 2020.
1
As always, Mr. Trump raises a rousing cheer for himself, after he resolves a truly knotty problem -- that he created himself.
36
@JPQ..exactly..no different than someone who starts a fire and becomes a hero because he puts it out!!
It seems that US consumers may lose in this deal as well as the environment.
13
Although the temptation is to say “ This is much ado about nothing” there are some potential risks.
For example the increase in North American content in Autos can be achieved by sourcing more components from Mexico or Canada.
Increasing wages in Mexico will not achieve a shift in production but will increase Auto prices on North American produced vehicles opening the door for more imports from other countries
All this adds up to a shrinking new car market and an increase in Used vehicles and no benefits for USA workers
As for USA cheese I can safely say Canadians do not have any kind of appetite for it. Not sure about the reference to wine , I have just been in Vancouver , visited a wine store and there was free availability of all wines on the shelf including Californian.
In general the real issue is not tariffs, trade barriers it is the rest of the world is moving on and has limited demand for our products, Navarro and Trump have got this wrong.
Thank goodness we have a couple of years to sort out their mess but the fundamental problem remains.
Evidence GE which once dominated World trade is fading away
3
The agreement refers only to wine sold in grocery stores, not public or private liquor stores. Relatively few grocery stores in BC sell wine.
9
Some things that should be obvious:
1 Anything that takes away jobs from 3rd world countries and returns them to Americans will cause prices to go up.
2 If Americans don't have these "needlessly" higher paying jobs, millions will be unemployed because they lack job skills and have no incentive to take minimum wage.
3 Robotics is not the answer to high paying jobs because companies use robots to save money by paying less to fewer employees.
4 Government programs to retrain workers for more skilled positions won't work because the these folks lack the initiative and intelligence to develop these skills -- that's why they don't have them to begin with.
4 The unemployed end up on welfare, so the money you save at Walmart goes to welfare.
I'd rather pay more for things and keep Americans honorably employed than watch the Government inefficiently subsidize a large sector of the work force.
The era when GM workers made $30/hr and had vacation camps was not a bad era. It was a good era.
6
Sounds like mostly the same deal with a different name. U.S.M.C.A. catchy name though. Maybe we he can get the Village People to write a sound about it.
20
@VMG
Now you've got me singing "Why MCA?". NAFTA was a great name because it didn't put any of the three North American signatories first or last. Apparently America First means give the US top billing but don't ask Mexico or Canada to make much in the way of concessions.
4
So an automobile employ has to earn at least $16 an hour. Sounds like the Mexican economy will improve hugely. Auto manufacturing will move to Mexico. They do not have to achieve $16 till 2023. So the auto companies can offer workers an incentive that by 2023 you will be earning $16 an hour. This is going to depress the American auto workers pay. The auto manufactures will be able to point to Mexico as a threat to there jobs. I believe that this will prove to be a bad deal for auto workers in U.S. and Canada.
5
This was not a win for tRump by any means.
The Chapter 19 provision for dispute resolution was a line in the sand for Canada, and the US blinked; also, increasing the number of tariff free vehicles from Canada and Mexico is also a win for those countries.
BTW, if tRump would have kept us in the TPP , this deal basically covers the same areas.
In other words, we basically kept the TPP, while managing to offend our two closest neighbors with steel and aluminum tariffs for "national security" reasons, when we didn't have to.
This was all just a show to make tRump look heroic for his base, while offending everyone else.
Well, Red America get ready for more expensive pickups and suv's, here they come.
35
Under NAFTA there was zero tarrifs on autos produced in Canada or Mexico as long as they met the content rules. This agreement merely says that should Trump decide to cheat on autos like he has done on steel and aluminum by using a totally phoney national security excuse then Canada and Mexico have a quota before the tarrifs kick in. I guess you can call it a win in the sense of offering limited protection against Trump violating the agreement but it's only of value when faced with a president with no ethics.
7
@Mark It is sad but IMHO the Canadians dislike the way Trump plays the game to get , basically, a new name for NAFTA and has the USA treated as it was to be treated in the TPP...We were bully by your buffoon and we will remember it. Your best customer is now trying to find non US made products is reaction to Trump. Trudeau save the day and give us some time to act but mark my word it will never be as it was before Trump; we learned our lesson !
4
I found nothing in the press release or in the comments within, about the Canadan Lumber Tariffs.
Anyone who has bought lumber in the past and this year, knows that Lumber Prices have increase markedly this year due to the Trump’s Tariffs. This is directly effecting the cost of New Homes and the cost of rebuilds after storms, fires, etc. The latter is a super downer for the people who are all ready suffer from their misfortunes!
27
@L.J. Conard
Softwood lumber is a separate agreement outside of NAFTA. There is no issue with it really. US timber industry makes money from the tariff since it increases funding for their subsidies and retail price. Canadian timber industry still sells the same amount of lumber into the US because the US can't meet its own demand and Canadian lumber tends to be older and cuts better for construction (not as soft or wet) so its preferred for structural work. (Ask your local building carpenter which lumber they prefer to work with.) Americans just pay more for any lumber now, Cdn or US, but the cost (and extra $3-8k per house) is hidden in the already substantive cost of building a home. Cdn mills can now add a couple of points to make up for their increased transaction costs since the US market is paying more anyway. Its a win-win: the only people who suffer are US consumers.
18
In other words, that pesky NAFTA which conservatives were conditioned to hate will now be replaced by another arcane agreement which they will be conditioned to love.
19
My view from Canada is that it is our negotiators managed to at least stave off the more contentious Trump demands: Getting rid of the Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism, which would have made it very unfair for us; and keeping the cultural exemptions clause (which prevents American media companies from taking over the the Canadian media landscape entirely).
So I am glad that our negotiators stuck to their guns on those two things.
Also, I think the rules regarding the auto workers will be good for both the Canadian and American auto workers.
There were some concessions from Canada on dairy products, but we are talking about a less than 4 per cent concession and I think Canadian consumers might find a way to buy Canadian whenever possible.
In the end, given that a "no deal" situation would have been devastating for a lot of businesses on both sides of our border, I think it made sense to sign the deal.
We will outlast Trump (and I really hope that our American friends will survive Trump) who is a disaster n a lot of other ways.
And this deal can be reviewed in six years. So it's not like a supreme court lifetime nomination, lol.
On this one, it's done and we live to fight another day.
53
@Wendy My guess, Chapter 19 is coming back in the six year review, if possible. Do not be mislead by the comments. (Please notice the regional source of comment.) Trump kept his promise to his base. And, irrespective of opinion (pro or con), he is solidifying an electoral footprint for 2020. The national momentum has turned. Globalists, of all types, are now in defensive mode in our national discourse. Even California will eventually move from extreme-left of center. Do not underestimate this paradigm shift.
As a Canadian, I want to know whether imported American dairy products will have to meet our much stricter standards for purity and absence of growth hormones. So far, I haven't been able to find this information.
21
@HR.... "our much stricter standards for purity and absence of growth hormones.".....The hormone used in dairy cattle is a protein. Proteins are not absorbed in tact when you eat them. They are broken down into their component parts (small peptides and amino acids). The scare tactic used to frighten consumers about hormones in milk is a fraud and is used on the less well educated as a gimmick to promote in country market protection, which would otherwise be a violation of free trade.
3
@HR
I don't know for sure but I doubt it. It is America after all and from where I stand it looks as though anything goes there. Please someone who knows the facts (I know, I know, what are facts?) let us know. I don't believe much today and even those products that call themselves organic might not be. I don't care about too much but I really don't like eating or drinking antibiotics unless they have been prescribed for me because I am REALLY sick.
4
@HR In many places, you can actually buy from local dairy farm companies and organic farms.
We have a local dairy farm in our region that sells milk that is GMO-free, from cows that are not fed any hormones, and the milk is sold into specialty shops, health food stores, and into smaller grocery stores. So if you want to buy Canadian no-hormone milk, you still can.
But I think these trade concessions will mostly affect things like powdered milk and infant formula ... products that can be more easily shipped longer distances. Maybe there are ways we can buy locally on those products as well.
To me, on some of these products, consumers can still pull some levers. I am willing to pay more for quality assurance and to help local farmers.
5
And the prize goes to... Financial Services and Pharma!
Swamp.
52
Surprise! It's still NAFTA, just now with gauche Trump branding.
22
Marginal changs presented by America's favorite conman as a miraculous overhaul only he with his genius could accomplish.
22
Yawn... Trump is once again convincing his clueless base that he's doing something. Of course he IS keeping our terrifying neighbor, Canada, under control...
41
Trumplandia still has a 1.3 Billion pound mountain
of mozarella.
Last year US dairy farmers dumped over 100 million
gallons of milk.
Canadians won't buy hormone laced dairy products.
Why can't Goliath export?
....Goliath doesn't understand other cultures.
37
@David Andrew Henry..."Canadians won't buy hormone laced dairy products."....Only less well educated Canadians who do not understand the basics of digestion. The hormone in question is a protein. There is no way it will enter your body in tact when you eat it.
1
@W.A. Spitzer Um no, he's talking about rBGH--the genetically engineered growth hormone given to cows, Cows administered with rBGH have a higher incidence of infection and must be treated with antibiotics, and those DO affect humans by creating antibiotic resistant bacteria. rBGH also has a negative effect on human insulin levels (insulin is also a hormone).
@W.A. Spitzer
I object to bovine growth hormone because of the pain and suffering it causes cows. Treated cows have significantly more mastitis, reproductive problems, lameness, and a decline in overall health.
Another concern is the overuse of antibiotics to treat cows with mastitis. That contributes to antibiotic resistance, which does affect humans.
Just last week Trump was "very unhappy with the negotiations and the negotiating style of Canada," and negotiations seemed stalled. Hmm. Anything happen since then that Trump might want to push from the headlines?
And why is it called the United States Marine Corps Agreement? No one liked MBTOA, MuchBetterThanObama'sAgreement?
12
The part about NAFTA that gets -no- press but is probably the most consequential, and also the most impossible to undo, is that, in the mid 1990s and early 2000s, it was the primary cause of the mass immigration of Mexicans, legal and illegal into the United States. The treaty caused the displacement and homelessness of millions of Mexican farmers as hey were evicted from land they had occupied for generations to make way for US and multinational industrial agriculture that NAFTA made possible on Mexican territory. That was actually, probably, the main reason for NAFTA's creation. And, coincidentally but conveniently, all those displaced persons could then be exploited north of the border. Win-win.
21
@Himsahimsa....Yeah right. Not very long ago their was an article in the National Geographic complaining about how turning corn into ethanol was driving up the price of corn to the point that poor Mexicans could no longer afford tortillas. Now you are claiming that American corn is priced so low that it drove the Mexican farmers out of business. Does U.S. corn make the price in Mexico too high or too low? I don't mind when people take one side of the argument , but please, not both.
1
@Himsahimsa:" that NAFTA made possible on Mexican territory."
Seems like you have a complaint with the Mexican Revolutionary Government.
Poor you, just can't catch a break huh.
So, in other words, the price of everything is about to go up. Mr. President please do US a big favor and stick to real estate deals.
18
I am pleased, at least, that this front of the Tradewreck ends the disgusting ISDS shamcourts between the US and Canada (but why not Mexico?), which favor megacorp owners and all of no one else.
But evidently the deal's push to unionize Mexico (and not us) is a cynical play to get us to think unions, not tantrum tariffs, raise import prices—and thus make us oppose them here.
Our drugmakers, and especially our opioid attackers, also should be getting heavily REDUCED "intellectual property" (knowledge-hoarding) "protections" (powers), not extended ones! Tax thieves are not entitled to a guaranteed and bigger payday, the companies themselves aren't doing the research (but are sure good at corrupting and closing off studies backed WITH OUR TAXES), and the resulting price hikes are another cynical play to bankrupt single-payer and similar systems used by developed countries like Canada.
Can't wait, as ever, for 11/6.
13
What was forgotten about dairy products was that with TPP USA would have access to Canadian market at about the same pourcentage that they have now with the new pact. Trump in rejecting the TPP also rejected access to dairy Canadian market. To cover his mistake he insulted Canadians and treated tariffs on cars built in Canada. Sad...
23
@Lachapelle Very sad and we will remember; check the figures of the trade between our 2 countries in the next years!
2
I live in a small city in down-east Maine......$16.00 per hour is less than is offered in a car repair shop repairing brakes on cars, and pay up here is not great.
In the early 80's GM had an assembly plant in Tarrytown N.Y. The plant was unionized and I knew a few people that worked there and made more than $30.00 per hour.
So, the cost of living has gone way up and salaries have been cut in half and we are supposed to cheer more low wage jobs coming.
Well.... WHOOPEE.
67
@mike hailstone....where in the US is $16 considered a good hourly wage? Some states are elevating minimum wage to $15 per hour. Scanning through this it seems like a bunch of minor tweaks to NAFTA combined with a lot of bluster about how great it is.If you are an average worker, and by definition most of us are, I have no idea why you would ever vote Republican. Whenever they come to power , whether on a city, state, or national level, one of their first moves is to try and dis-empower unions. Somehow they convince a lot of people that they are LeBron James and can command any salary they want in a free market. In the real world companies offer what they are willing to offer and if you dont accept it they will find someone who will. The only antidote to this is collective bargaining which essentially says " pay a livable wage or we will bring your business to a halt"
Enjoy the new paint job Donny. Not really a win, just a bunch of noise for the followers.
27
With the revision of some terms, NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement, is now USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Why is a totally new name needed? It brings to mind a George Orwell quote from the book “1984”.
“But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.”
26
Trump may think he's done a great service by opening up Canadian markets to American wines and dairy.
In doing so, he has probably blown all the goodwill required for Canadians to actually want to buy those products.
This could very well be a pyrrhic victory, but as long as he thinks he has righted an imaginary wrong, we may as well let him bask in all his fake glory.
Better that than listening to him hurl insults and threats to our neighbors and allies.
50
@Allan B
You can lead a horse to water or wine or milk but you can’t make him drink.
2
USMCA? Sounds like a song written by the Village People for the Marine Corp.
42
@Jbugko
Other wags have rearranged the letters to USCAM.
1
@Jbugko
It’s definitely a military acronym. Fitting for the warlike trade deal, with the huge USA bullying two small neighbours.
Two more years of this...
Sorry America. Please dont take this personally, but I’m still not buying any of your dairy. Maybe its the hormones, maybe the treatment of livestock, maybe the puss that leaks into the milk, dont know... but I just cant do it.
On a different note, Trump’s belligerence has caused me to rethink my spending habits. Made in USA doesnt mean quite as much to me as it once did.
Ive never been one to wave the flag. I detest nationalism on all its forms, but I now feel a moral obligation to support Canadain workers, meaning my neighbours, and help them put food on the table.
Sorry that its come to this.
182
@Luc
Make Canada Great Again!!
3
@Luc
Hey, don't apologize! If I was younger, I would move to Canada where integrity means something. The USA is all about money, greed, profits, and making wars. Hopefully, Canada will not follow in the same footsteps.
2
@Luc No apologies necessary, Luc. I second Liz from Nashville's comment about being as sick of the fool in the White House as is the rest of the World. I have no problem with Canadians boycotting American products so that some pain may come home to the supporters of you-know-who.
1
Hate Trump with a passion, but sounds like there some good things in there for Amricans.
3
This is an ENTIRELY different agreement! Why, it even has a different name!! (shades of Dogbert hyping SixSigma 10-15 years ago)
13
The name has been changed to protect the guilty.
13
It's a win for our Midwest dairy farms including ones that use undocumented workers, which is almost all of them.
16
Trump does not believe in thinking things through or doing homework. It is all bluster and salesmanship. I have no faith that this is a good agreement.
16
Wow, after all the insults, threats and bully tactics. Good example of a spoiled kid's approach to winning deals. I'm sure we all learned a lot on long term business relationships. - MAKE sure he doesn't loose his face'- I'm glad that the wise have kept their calm and agreed to just throw a few candies so we can move on. Can we just keep being friends again? We still love y'all. Just wish you would dump Putin and Kim.
21
As usual with Trump, it comes across as sound and fury signifying nothing, except to force US drug prices on Canadians.
34
As usual with anything Trump touches, lots of "sound and fury, signifying nothing".
And accomplishing nothing, except having profoundly alienated Canada, one of the US's staunchest friends and allies. Nothing like "winning" a la Trump!
22
Thus it begins.
The seemingly unstoppable march of modern economic and political International Globalism, now has an off ramp.
Although it is still early, and the full text of the USMCA is still being written, for those who have lost faith in the global path that the progressive and financial elite have been carving out for themselves over the last 25 years, there is now a viable alternative to that discredited path.
This 'new' agreement is really two separate deals between three countries. A one size fits all approach is almost nowhere to be seen in this document. In the old NAFTA, most rules were applied equally between three countries. In the USMCA, there are separate and different rules based upon the realities found in each country.
And this agreement has a sunset clause, with a stated date for a mandatory review every 6 years, after the first full year of implementation.
There is so much to like in this new postmodern trade agreement, that this small space provided does not allow for a full and proper description.
But, there is room enough to acknowledge two important points.
1.) That this new postmodern framework does not infringe upon the sovereignty of any of the three countries involved. And..
2.) That it not only respects the democratic legitimacy found in each of these nation-states - it also strengthens it.
I wonder if the elite in the European Union are paying attention to the new normal in this postmodern era?
4
So what about US Financial Services being forced on Mexico, and US Pharmaceuticals being forced on Canada?
It’s just a different pile, it still stinks!
By the way, I don’t know how to break this to you, but Trump is a different kind of globalist.
A representative of the global oligarchy.
12
So glad to see the pharmaceutical companies have new protections! Because you know they're barely getting by.
130
@AZYankee Where American tobacco goes, American biopharma follows...
8
@DenisPombriant You are absolutely right. Big Pharma = yesterday's Big Tobacco.
"That last provision will grant longer protections to American biologic drugs, against biosimilar competitors, and it will probably raise the profits of those drugmakers when they sell in Canada."
It's immoral and unethical to hold health care hostage and force people who have the misfortune of getting sick into bankruptcy.
The entire pharmaceutical research and intellectual property protection environment needs to be radically restructured. We cannot possibly continue on our current path and pulling now Canada down into the swamp of greed is not the answer.
50
Thank you, President Trump, for doing the job you were elected to do. Please continue the good work (but could you tone it down on the other stuff, please).
7
@Anthill Atoms
So, you're claiming that he was elected to move all of our agricultural exports to China over to Russians?
Oh, never mind.
Because Dairy.
13
@Jbugko. Yep, all about continuing to buy surplus Wisconsin production and sell a bit more north. But it will keep the cheeseheads in the Republican column.
2
@MEH: California produces more dairy than does Wisconsin. In Wisconsin there may now be more dairy workers than automobile industry workers, but many of the dairy workers are migrants and can't vote.
The old agreement wasn't ripped up. There are a few cosmetic changes like the name. American dairy farmers got access to 3.6% of that market. What Trump didn't mention was: American dairy farmers are heavily subsidized by governments. Canadian dairy farmers are not subsidized at all. Still, giving up 3.6% of the dairy market is well worth it to be able to keep chapter 19's dispute resolution.
Hopefully, Trump won't be like G W Bush when he lost a lumber dispute wanted to renegotiate the deal. Canadian lumber producers ended up paying several billion dollars even after winning the dispute.
9
I live in the SF Bay Area. I think I would prefer Canadian dairy right about now.
Perhaps the Canadian higher-quality safer milk production practices will spread to here? Do we trade milk products with Mexico?
18
@Anne: Sounds like the forward thinking folks in California would take it up on themselves to purchase milk form Mexico. Solidarity and all that...
Please do let everyone know how that works out for you.
this may shift some jobs to the Us over time. That would be a good thing. But if company's increase their wages in Mexico, then they can meet the $16 an hour requirement and keep their factories there. Time will tell.
On the dairy industry provisions, we need to rethink the entire dairy business because of our current over production. Increased exports to Canada is a partial stop gap. We simply don't eat or need to eat all the milk and cheese that we produce.
On the other hand, a shift to organic farming for which there is a growing market would be viable and profitable. But that will have to wait for another administration.
22
@drspock
I agree. I stopped drinking milk 18 yrs ago and I don't eat any cheese except grated parmesan on pasta. My family does the same.
Many people now drink Almond milk so do I.
Overproduction is a vicious cycle. It supposedly takes 5 to 10 years to transition your regular growing fields into organic ones. I'd never buy anything but Organic butter, milk, etc. if I needed those products.
I use to buy organic soy milk from Organic Valley but for some reason they stopped making it this year with no explanation. Not profitable? Who knows? It was the best imo.
2
NAFTA was "the worst deal EVER" but these few minor changes that theoretically provide assistance to the auto and dairy industries make all the difference? If any of Trump's predecessors had come up with these amendments they'd hardly have bothered to mention them. When The Donald does so, he insists that we celebrate him. Sorry, Your Fatness, but I'm still looking forward to the completion of the Mueller investigation.
122
Bovine Growth Hormone is banned for sale in Canada. I wonder what restrictions US dairy will have as it enters Canada if the cows were given rBGH.
Canada also has strict guidelines on antibiotic use - the milk from cows receiving antibiotics can't enter the food supply. Every truckload of milk is tested, and if it's found to have antibiotics, the milk is dumped and the dairy farmer fined.
So US dairy will have some hurdles.
Wine... well, BC wine is over priced. A $20 bottle of BC wine is about the same as a $12 Chilean or Argentinian wine. I don't expect California wines to make many inroads. Grocery store sales are not the same in Canada - it's a private liquor store, and more expensive than going to a government-run liquor store. So again, probably not a huge win.
28
@David Griffiths....."Canada also has strict guidelines on antibiotic use - the milk from cows receiving antibiotics can't enter the food supply.".....The U.S. also has strict guidelines prohibiting antibiotics in milk, and U.S. milk has been routinely tested for antibiotics for many years. The growth hormone to which you refer is a protein, which is fully metabolized before it can enter your body, just like any other protein you eat.
@W.A. Spitzer How many times are you going to spew this little lie?
Minor changes and trump rejoices in his victory , but will the new congress of mostly democrats approve this deal ? I guess we will find out after the first of the year .
11
"The agreement sets new rules for automobile production, meant to incentivize production of cars and trucks in countries that pay higher wages."
Leaving aside whether or not the mechanisms Trump put in the deal will work, was it too much to ask of the Democrats for them to try to put something together to incentivize increased production in the US?
Are they THAT committed to neoliberalism and their corporate benefactors that they couldn't at least throw a bone to American workers?
5
@Ed Watters: Since when does The Donald consult with the Democrats about anything?
23
@Ed Watters. Democrats bailed out two auto companies in 2008/9
7
@Ed Watters: Your continuing attempts at false equivalence and whataboutism deflection have been noted.
1
The average cost for a new car in the US is now !$36K, better buy one now while they are still a "bargain."
And remember when we made trade "agreements", not "deals"?
22
"Among the small-but-significant items in the new agreement are a measure to push Mexico to make it easier for workers to form and join labor unions,"
Too bad this doesn't apply to the United States.
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@Padfoot
private sector unions are fine, it's government unions that need to go!
1
@ann Why? Because the government is a "better" employer? Trump's tax cuts have created such a monstrous deficit that he's "cutting corners" by denying workers their 2.1% raise they were supposed to get. Sounds like they need a union!
Two thoughts from Toronto
1. If the average cost of car production rises, which MUST happen given the wage and parts stipulation, the purchase price will RISE for US consumers. There is no way that those extra costs will be absorbed through efficiencies.
2. I don't care how much American dairy is on the shelves of my local stores. I will always buy Canadian fresh food if it available, even at a premium.
Finally, I hope someone more knowledgeable than I will do the math on a typical car and estimate how the final price will be affected.
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@john I too will always buy Canadian wherever possible.
18
@john Would you buy American milk if it was Trump-branded full-fat milk?
1
@john
I always buy Canadian too but don't get there often enough ehh.
President supports labor unions!
...in Mexico.
150
Oh the irony. This "new" agreement incourages low wage countries to unionize their workers, while we have spent the last 38 years destroying our unions.
We trueley have gone down the rabbit hole, thanks to our Mad Hairer.
204
@Harry Something stupid this way goes. One does not know about irony, but we have clarity on organizing against the Republicans'-world's-worst-swamp. It has been a long time since anything this expensive and incomprehensibly stupid. It would take a genius like Judge Kavanaugh to justify paying the bill, and if allowed he will try. Who paid the bill? Not a billionaire out of his own pocket. We have a new American tradition, Republicans, not knowing how to govern, spend years damaging America, forcing Democrats to remedy Republican damage, and a segment of Americans who fail to distinguish day from night criticize nothing until Democrats are working to save the nation’s budgets. Then blast aimlessly. Sad does not describe. Republicans cost America multiple dollars for every tax dollar they “save,” complaining every stumbling step. Harry, how correct you are. When unions were strong, the people of this nation had real wealth, not stashed in foreign places. America First? Trump has no idea.
@MAX L SPENCER
Well said. The party has denigrated to the point that their there only purpose is not to govern, but cut taxes, at any cost to our country.
Overall the original deal is largely intact. The new deal contains some tweaks, but Canada got the deal we were hoping for. Trump can pound his chest for his base, but anyone who knows about trade will tell you that these arein prison changes, kinda like the renegotiated South Korean deal. Trump is all bluster and bully with no substance!
33
@Renee Hiltz
Companies will continue to move to labor friendly countries.
1
@James Young: You are on target. Does anyone believe that companies won't quickly find ways to elude any of the "new rules" (moving home headquarters, misrepresenting the actual "origination" of component materials requirements in the agreements, etc. Example, the required average $16 per hour per worker will suddenly include not just actual hourly wage rate paid but come to include other "benefits" (required union dues/bribes suddenly included as part of the hourly wage rate, employee required health care payments, etc.).
@Tom
In places where the rule of law barely functions, I am sure they could get 'paid' merely to 'return' most of it in fees, dues, clothes, food, and other charges. The old 'I owe my soul to the company store' schtick updated for the 21st century.
Trump does not know how to rip anything up. Tweeting and speaking are not ripping nor fighting.
" A pig by any other name would be just as stinky". Changing the name of Nafta along with minor adjustments and modernizations does not change the substance.
14
Perhaps thinking about Wisconsin and the Electoral College.
4
So Mexican workers will have more rights regarding forming and joining unions at the same time the US govt, Congress, and Supreme Court are each doing what they can to destroy unions for American workers? Interesting. . .
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@Dylaina
The odd thing is, Mexican workers, while not paid a lot, had far more worker protections than most Americans know. I've been going to Puerto Vallarta Mexico for years and you can't just fire a worker, unless you want to pay them a fat severance.
3
@Dylaina Remember, Republicans hate unions because they know unions are effective. The intention of this provision is to make the cost of manufacturing in Mexico go up (and the incentive to manufacture in Mexico, relative to the US, go down) as workers there gain more benefits.
4
@James Young Define what paying a"fat severance" means when getting rid of a worker making $5 an hour.
How nice for Mr. Devin Nunes, a Representative "from California", and his family's DAIRY FARM ... located in IOWA.
"Dairy was a deal breaker", said the Traitor-in-Chief today.
Nothing to see here. Move along.
68
Does Ivanka get special exceptions to manuacter her wear in Asia. Someone read the fine print.
6
@Wyatt
Am I wrong to think that this trade agreement doesn't have anything to do with trade outside of North America?
Honestly, there's enough to criticize here without resorting to simple misinformation.
6
To the fine people of Canada,
We apologize. We're as sick of this idiot as you are. Hang in there with us, and hopefully we can return to our longstanding civil partnership in two years (or maybe even after this next congressional election!).
Your friends,
The vast majority of Americans
397
@Liz No need to apologize Liz. We Canucks realize that Americans are for the mostly decent folks. Some Americans get taken in by propagandists at sites like Fox, Breitbart, Alex Jones, Rush Limbaugh etc.
The day will come for Trump, as it did for Senator Joseph McCarthy, when Joseph Welch asked, "Have you no sense of decency, Sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"
Then it will dawn on even the most diehard Trump supporter that Trump lacks a sense of shame and decency.
16
so.... NAFTA v1.01?
7
I don't pretend to be an expert, but if NAFTA was the disaster it was portrayed as, then why did they barely change any of it? This seems...anticlimactic. I'm no fan of Trump but was genuinely hoping this one thing would actually pan out. I guess we'll see, and in the meantime holding out hope for the suffering small dairy farms in upstate New York.
8
@Sally
It seems that we find ourselves in a conundrum. NAFTA and similar trade agreements forged in the 80s and 90s disadvantaged the USA in many areas like manufacturing while bolstering other areas such as agriculture and finance. In 2018, these economic agreements form the foundation of our modern day economic 'house-of-cards'. There is no simple way of extricating ourselves, or easily reforming, global capitalism.
We must honestly ask ourselves if we are okay with the global economic retraction caused by withdrawing from NAFTA. As shown during the last recession, the people who have reaped the rewards from these economic policies will not be the ones bearing the hardships of a market collapse.
8
@Sally: This dairy deal is a zero sum game with respect to the number of dairy jobs in North America.
4
Looks like some good changes. Was it really necessary to threaten our neighbors, insult a prime minister, and do damage to international relationships for decades to come? Clever name change, perhaps the Village People can alter a classic song and slip in USMCA complete with arm gestures.
As to forcing stores to share shelf space with American brands, making marketing moves compulsory is something America has never had to do before. I wonder if the people in British Columbia will be tricked into buying California wines instead of their own winery products?
34
@Michael Kelly
The sad thing is that Canadians love California wines, but in the last year of "negotiations" or as we call it, bullying and name calling, Canadians now look very carefully at where products are made, and actively avoid US products when possible. Its a thing here now, and it never was before. That's not going to change. People here will buy what they like, but there is this sensibility now that we shouldn't unquestioningly support the US like we used to do. The USA as gone from friend to just neighbor in the minds of many Canadians. It will take a generation or so for that to wear off.
33
@Michael Kelly I don't know. Do you have to be tricked into going for an Argentinian Malbec over a Central Cal one?
2
@Michael Kelly British Columbians don't need to be tricked into buying Californian wines. They mostly buy for quality and price. Californian wines are very competitive.
However, many of us Canucks have only one way to strike back at Trump; and that is to boycott American products. Although, I don't want to hurt the average American. They inflicted that monstrosity on the world.
7
Whether one views the changes as good or bad, they appear to be rather minor adjustments. I am not an expert but I suspect that 99% of the requirements of NAFTA remain intact. And now the Republicans own it.
27
@Chet
It was a Republican child to begin with. Just because Trump makes it sound as if it were a Democratic idea and Clinton signed it against his union backers advice, doesn't change that fact.
24
If I read it correctly, it won't really do a lot, but the devil is in the details. For example, it seemed to say that while they would put tariffs on Mexican produced cars, it sounds like a side deal basically exempted from tariffs more cars than Mexico actually produces. Then, too, the 16 buck an hour wage is problematic, in that that doesn't include benefits, which in the US can add up to 30% of the base salary. More importantly, does the language say '16 an hour' or 'the equivalent of 16 an hour?". If so, that 5 buck mexican wage might well be considered 'the same' as 16 in the US, based on cost of living.
Overall, it doesn't sound like this is really going to change much. Canadian cars, for example, are made by people making first world wages, so there at least it isn't going for a low cost labor market (Canadian plants have been producing US vehicles for a long time, and they are not a significant cause of loss of jobs from US plants, whereas Mexico has been, plus Canada is a significant market for US company models). In the end, I doubt this is going to help create much jobs in the US, this sounds more like a Trump special, an agreement that does little but he can trumpet among his base, who can't/won't read the details, and in a couple of years will wonder where all the jobs went.
19
@bill d "and in a couple of years will wonder where all the jobs went. " No, by then Dems will control congress and the average Fox viewer will be more than happy to blame them for the fallout of trump's policies.
American dairy farmers (including those in New York State (Schumer and Gillibrand) and Vermont (Bernie and Leahy) will be very happy. Tough to see how those Senators don't vote for this agreement. Also, Bernie was a "huge" supporter of requiring an increased minimum wage for Mexican auto workers, so that provision will ring true to him, too. We can debate whether this is ideal from a free trade perspective, but it certainly hits a number of Democratic Socialist platform planks and should be supported by big labor and family farms in the Northeast. You may not like President Trump, but you cannot easily argue that this is an agreement that ignores issues with Nafta raised by Labor and Progressives. Trump also accomplished something significant (whether you agree or not) in a much shorter period than typical trade agreements. An interesting question is how Senate Democrats in general, and progressives in particular, will vote and whether Trump can get 2/3 of the Senate to approve.
6
@Alexander Messier
Shhh, don't say that too loud, or the dotard in chief may actually pay attention to the actual text of the deal. To Trump it was far more important to change the name rather than the text of the agreement.
19
Trump also accomplished something significant (whether you agree or not) in a much shorter period than typical trade agreements. " Yes, by holding a gun to their heads!
1
Anything to distract from:
* The tax cuts for the rich that they're trying to make permanent
* The limits they've put on the FBI investigation into Kavanaugh
* Robert Mueller and the Trump/Russia investigation
On that basis, I can see why Trump considers this a win. He got to dominate about 2 hours of the news cycle.
27
@HDNY The Republicans are actually trying to make tax cuts for the middle and working classes permanent. Many rich who live in cities and suburbs in high tax states (the home to many of America's wealthy - Chicago, NYC, LA, San Fran, Greenwich, Short Hills) are being hurt by the deduction limitations on state and local taxes ("SALT"). Making the current tax law provisions permanent principally helps those who take the standard deduction. This is typically people among the 90% least wealthy, not those among the 10% most wealthy. These provisions typically hurt the wealthiest as they affect those in high tax states with large mortgages, large state and local tax bills and previously taking large deductions. The recent tax code changes have simplified the tax returns and reduced the taxes for the overwhelming majority of Americans. They are economically a good thing for these people. We can debate whether increased government debt is a problem, but the positive impact of changes to the tax code on the middle and working classes is not really in dispute.
1
I think you are misinformed. It was a welfare tax reform taking from the rich people in blue states to give it to red states. This was the most partisan tax cut ever. And what about those deficits, aren't they great :)
The idea of encouraging production to come back to the US for autos is good. But the auto industry is now a global game, and margins are quite thin. I'm willing to be that on net this will not add additional jobs because some production will shift to low income counties outside North America. So it's a good idea and worth a try, but we should revisit in 5 years to see if it's been helpful or not. If it hasn't been, scrap it and go back to square 1.
2
@Dan G
No, assembly of cars.......
The potential of more tariffs, yields increases in consumer prices which equates to a regressive implied tax.
6
From here in Canada, the whole exercise (put at its highest, setting aside Trump's rowdy unpredictability) was about the much more experienced Canadian and Mexican trade teams dragging the ideologically purged US team back into most of Obama's TPP deal, that Trump pulled out of. The TPP would have increased dairy access by only a bit less, and obviously would have included major Pacific Rim traders like Japan and Australia on the same terms - lost by Trump along with any pretense of American "leadership", ceding that to China in the region. The full terms will out soon enough, and the best bet is Trump put America behind where it was at the end of the Obama administration and well south of "First".
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@J111111
Why would Canada want milk produced in the US that has antibiotics, and growth hormones.
25
Dairy is 1/10 of 1% of the total value of NAFTA. Given that Wisconsin, all by itself, produces more dairy products than all of Canada the value of added access to maybe 5% of the CDN market amounts to virtually nothing to US dairy farmers. They are already producing far more product than the American market can consume, and they are heavily subsidized by US taxpayers to do just that. On this issue, there is far more show than substance.
143
@Ed
Which that is EXACTLY what I've been saying all along. Trumps babbling amounted to lies, by saying that Canada uses a 230% tariff on certain dairy products, while omitting that the US tax payer has subsidized farmers for decades.
10
@Ed
We need to implement a straight forward solution to avoid angering our trade partners with our agricultural subsidies:
**Require ALL subsidies to be refunded to the state and federal government on exported agricultural products.**
1. This assures that farm welfare benefits the US consumers as much as the farmer.
2. 3rd world farmers would be able to produce their own food rather than trying to compete with subsidized US commodities.
3. Save trade battles for things that have more multiplying impact on the economy (like the supply chain for autos or semiconductors).
1
I'm not sure what is to celebrate - the US bullying and public insults toward Canada, its industry, and trade reps has forever tainted the cultural relationship between us. What's that saying, "when someone shows you who they are, believe them?" Everyone of this generation will remember this and will comply out of necessity but American's can't expect much spontaneous gratitude and camaraderie from most Canadians anymore.
Substantively, I'd like to read the full text, but at least initially, I'm not pleased with the copyright term extension - completely unnecessary and serves only large US corporate media ownership interests. I hope Canada did not bargain away our notice-notice or other intellectual property user rights.
On autos, while the $16/hr rule seems like a positive step, is it wrong to suspect that it might be used to drive US and CDN wages down to that level?
As far as dairy goes, the US already had a $440M dairy surplus with Canada, so it was just a red herring. Dairy was always just about politics for a small, inefficient and overly subsidized dairy lobby so they could dump their excess production waste (ie. a by product to make cheese that isn't even used in the US) into the Cdn market for a higher margin. I just hope that food labeling regulations were not changed, and all that hormone & antibiotic-laden dairy from Wisconsin and other US states can't hide their additives (which were illegal up here until now) and bitter taste from Canadian consumers.
62
@Rese
This Nafta signing saved upwards of two million good Canadian jobs all the rest is window dressing.
The American population will continue to see their standard of living decline. The USA needs needs only one thing right now and that is leaders who will bring them together. The GOP and Donald Trump are leading the USA down the drain tonight we find out the results of our election. I will celebrate Quebec and Canada and will mourn the loss of my second favourite country.
9
Can we stop with the sensationalism? True story: The advisers of President Lazy *lightly edited* NAFTA just in time for the midterms.
46
Just wait until he starts speaking in Johnson City today. This "deal" will be proclaimed the revolutionary start of a new era where the U.S. "won't be taken advantage of anymore." And the crowd will lap it up.
3
Special interest groups "win" again. People lose. Republicans always place business above people. Vote out Republicans to save medicare; health care and social security; GOP already admittrd they will take these away if they win midterms. Ray Sipe
14
@Ray Sipe Yep. As always.-average wage goes to $16 an hour -bad for the people, right?
@JK
Oddly that's the wage most Americans currently make, you do the math, and adjust for inflation, now how much per hour is that.
@JK
So you are for raising the minimum wage to $16 here in the US?
The $16 per hour is subject to bookkeeping shenanigans, the cheese deal in infinitesimal, biologics are easy to retro and hopeless litigation, and tarriffs on steel and aluminum in place mean a reset for Canadian and Mexican producers. Overall, a non-event. Agricultural markets are permenently remakiing themselves, Russian wheat and soy are building, So. America is short hedging on delapidated US exchanges. What the heck are you cheering about? This is a capitulatg dogfall.
21
Trump is used to do real estate deals; when you close those sort of deal you do not see again the other part in 99% of the case. To get a change of name and some "minor modifications" Trump insult the Canadians and make a bully of himself...have a look at our commercial relations in the next 2 years; it won't be pretty! A lot of Canadians cannot buy US products anymore; they look CAREFULLY and discard any US product if feasible.Trump has killed a relationship of confidence and understanding created from the last century for something we can have settle in 1 hour discussion without his stupid demands of 5 years term and dispute resolutions...(those 2 demands being abandonned).Sad
87
Finally some good news coming out of the Trump administration.
1
@JMWB
You say that without knowing the true implications.
3
Its hard to tell from this summary whether this a significant change. The dairy industry seems to have gained some access in Canada. Not much impact on this industrial and technological economy.
The auto industry will be an interesting test. Although the provisions listed appear to benefit American auto workers, the supply chains and assembly decisions will probably adjust to the changes. It is not clear that this or any other agreement will return much glory to the auto industry in the US.
8
Without Free Trade (NAFTA), elected US Government politicians and their US Government bureaucrats pick and choose the winners and the losers among US businesses and US Labor Unions.
This selection of winners and losers is based upon the established institutionalized political "Pay to Play" type procedures that are now required for doing business with the US federal government and or getting any US government action on any issue!
In any trade war, the nations that accumulates more (taxable) wealth VIA FOREIGN TRADE within that nation wins, and some nations go bankrupt by spending their existing wealth, plus borrowed money using their existing privately owned taxable wealth as collateral for Government loans to pay for their nation's government activities lose!
The USA will probably lose Mr. Trump's trade war because the USA is no longer a taxable wealth creating nation, but is now a taxable wealth consuming debtor nation.
US citizens are selling (or letting the government mortgage privately held US located assets as collateral for US treasury bonds) existing title to every privately owned national taxable wealth (businesses and real property) in the USA that was created by previous working generations of their citizens in order to pay for our government payrolls, entitlements, contracts and other government activities (plus our foreign made consumer products).
1
@Gerald
So what do you suggest? Surrender?
@JK
I think he's pointing out that we the people will be the ultimate loser(s)
@Gerald
Sigh.
America does't have a spending problem. It doesn't have a revenue problem. It has a problem with embracing reality. America produces ~$19 Trillion a year. $700 billion gets dropped on the military, and $3 Trillion on healthcare -- at twice the rate of Canada (16% GDP vs 8% GDP) with multi-millions left uncovered and worse outcomes. The tax system encourages big companies to move production and profits out of America. Widespread disdain for obeying the law allows 11 MILLION illegal immigrants to work when they aren't permitted to. Ridiculously loose gun laws permit millions to sustain injuries that cost billions are removed them from the working population. Unwillingness to fund a social safety net, education or infrastructure has created a permanent underclass that must be contained, maintained or incarcerated as the situation dictates. And the dictates of an 18th century constitution that mandates checks and balances and fear of the government has left America with a government that EVERY HUMAN BEING ALIVE knows doesn't function very well.
Trade treaties are not really an issue.
One of the major constraints on American dairy products going to Canada (and the EU, NZ, and others) is their ban on milk products from cows that where injected with Bovine Growth Hormone (BGH).
Use of BGH is approved by the FDA and still commonly used by American dairy farmers to the best of my knowledge
This issue was not mentioned but It may well be an important limitation of just how much USMCA will benefit US dairy farmers.
25
@John Shepherd You are correct, but it is pure propaganda Canadians have been fed about America having _no_ rBGH-free milk. As a Canadian living in California for the last twenty-five years, I'll tell you first hand there is plenty of organic, rBGH-free milk in the US. I suspect it meets Canadian or EU sstandards without issue.
That said, please (everyone!) read the article... carefully: Canada's dairy supply management remains intact. The Americans won't be flooding Canada with cheap milk. (There is a similar to TPP sized increase in the milk quotas included in this NAFTA update. I suspect Trump always knew it would be there for when he wanted to claim victory. )
What the Americans won was the right to keep shipping milk products that weren't in the original NAFTA agreement. Ontario's dairy board (maybe others, I only read about Ontario's) was peeved to see a market they didn't anticipate (and nurtured by Americans) start to grow. To stop them, Ontario started selling their own equivalent products _below cost_ to keep the American goods out of Canada. American farmers cried foul (and you would too if the circumstances were reversed).
https://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/22/dairy-101-the-canada-u-s-milk-spat-expla...
Your President lit something on fire, called for negotiators to put it out, screamed at them (and the burning building) the entire time and is now claiming victory for himself. Congratulation?
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@Norman Dupuis
Yes, we are sick of him too. These have been a painful two years.
3
That’s the best description of what happened I’ve seen anywhere!
Hey, we won big on car manufacturing. I mean, "they won big" because I am a car buyer, not a car maker.
7
"Ripped up NAFTA" is a funny way of saying that he made tiny, micromangerial adjustments to it that were going to happen anyway.
72
@Randy Thompson, ripping is what maniacs do when others only tear. Any Trump-related headline in the Times must be be adjusted for bias. It's reflexive and can't be controlled therefore we have to learn to accommodate on our end.
1
I suppose one should not be too surprised the grand cheeto was willing to blow up billions in trade over a few million dollars worth of cheese sales that he mostly would have already won if he had stayed in the TPP. Time will tell how much appetite Canadians have for antibiotic and hormone laden dairy products.
58
And all you had to do to get this minor adjustment of a deal was burn through all of your goodwill with your two long time neighbour and friend countries and fire up peoples resentment of what America really means. He starts a fire, then claims victory when everyone else puts it out.
180
@Scott If your best friend(s) were cheating on you for a test ,a lot, you'd be really frustrated. Donald Trump's not entirely wrong when he claims that Allies and other nations take advantage of us... It's just the manner he goes about it; unilateralism, trade wars, and tariffs
Much ado about very little.
This is essentially TPP with a couple of tweaks and 9 less countries.
This is the deal -- Canada gives a little on dairy, but no other concessions -- that Justin Trudeau said was there for the taking in May, before steel and aluminum tariffs, and before literally millions of Canadians learned to look for "Made in USA" labels so they can AVOID those products.
But it has a new name, so Twump will be happy, and since he is now invested in this agreement, Canada (and Mexico) don't have to worry about Twump trying to destroy their economies.
100
@Ed I'm still worried for some reason. I hope he forgets that we exist, but I am worried that he will destroy yours. We need you, that is a fact of life.
Best wishes.
Is $16/hour really enough to send auto manufacturing job back to the US? I suspect it is still much below the US payscale for manufacturing. So when Mexico pays its workers more, but US auto companies keep production in Mexico, what will be the outcome? A better standard of living for Mexican auto workers, and a lower standard of living for American consumers (higher car prices for Americans buying "American" cars).
11
@J
It's the AVERAGE wage for 40% of the vehicle content. The high paying jobs that are in Mexico will be moved into the same building as the low wage jobs and Voila! $16/hr. Nobody's actual pay is going to change.
So Donald Trump and HHS Secretary Azar have decided to help lower drug prices by... extending patent protection into Canada which will actually raise drug prices and cause additional duress to American consumers who go over the border to save money.
I hope this detail gets more coverage.
Yet another example of "we're going to help the little guy" turning into helping big business and the shareholder by squeezing even more out of that little guy.
217
@GSB America First, going to Canada for drugs. Trump promised wins. So sick of winning, to Canada for medicine.
1
US dairy products will now show up on Canadian store shelves; nothing saying Canadians have to purchase them. I don't see a lot changing here.
28
@Upstairs Neighbour
I have just written to my MP to ask for strengthened labelling. Consumers do not want this inferior milk. I fear that the food processors though - Kraft, Unilever, the US diaries that have scooped up many of our smaller dairies will jump at the change to use a cheap product. They must be made to inform consumers. Thee US harps on and on about individual freedom but that never sems to include the freedom to be informed as consumers.
17
@Upstairs Neighbour
Highly unlikely to be seen on shelves. The USDA stamp is the kiss of death on a Canadian store shelf. People can say 'Jack in the box.' They don't forget. But food processors may lick their lips -- although Pizza Hut sales do suffer from the fact that the consumer knows they are using US processed cheese food. When I travel in the US, I worry about a health emergency, getting shot, and eating food in that order. If it weren't for my wife's Disneyland obsession, I wouldn't travel in the US at all.
3
@Upstairs Neighbour
We are already boycotting Olympic yoghurt because it’s a US product. Too bad because it tastes good.
Well he kept his promise to America's dairy industry and that's going to make all the difference, isn't it?
6
Based on the experience of S Korea, Canada and Mexico, memo to other countries: Do not enter into any bilateral trade negotiation with the U.S.
63
So what’s the point in agreeing on any trade deal when the next administration can change this whenever they feel like it. This provides no certainty for countries or corporations alike.
13
@Bryce Trade deals can always be renegotiated. Nothing's set in stone and forever. I'd argue that periodic reviews of trade deals are a good thing - it's a changing world. On the other hand, backing out from a deal that was already agreed to without a replacement at the ready is dangerous. To this administration's credit, they didn't blow up NAFTA as they were threatening, which would have caused chaos. They also didn't need to be as boneheaded about the messaging as they were, but the result is an ok agreement which may improve things for the signatory countries in a few ways, though it will very likely lead to less North American auto production and higher drug prices overall.
2
@Kyle
But wait, I'm confused, you said, "the result, is an ok (okay) agreement, which may improve things, for the signatory countries in a few ways. though it will very likely lead to less North American auto production, and higher drug prices"
How is that an okay deal.....if we wind up paying more for drugs, cars, and steel, and aluminum.
@James Young
Your POTUS is obsessed with the trade deficit. Everybody is already buying as much as they want from America. So the only way for that number to drop is for America to buy less from everyone else. That only happens if everything from everywhere else gets more expensive. So that's what Diamond Donnie is doing.
Sooner or later, things would have to come back to balance. There's only so much real estate for the Chinese to buy, so many T-Bills to hold and so much stock to buy before the P/E ratio gets foolish. The cheap, debt-fueled American consumer binge is coming to its end -- and no, there is no silver lining. Everything is going to get more expensive until America lives within its means again -- something done since the Reagan administration for only a brief period in the Clinton years. Buckle up.
So now, 40% of parts will have to come from “high wage” factories, that pay more than $16 per hour. That is great. But is it really a victory for American workers? Factories in the US and Canada pay much more than $16 per hour. If a manufacturer is going to move more production into the US, Canada or Mexico, won’t they simply ask which is cheaper: Moving production to the US and Canada, where wages are already higher, or simply raising wages in Mexico to $16, and moving production there? I am glad workers will get higher wages, but won’t most of the beneficiaries be factory workers in Mexico?
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@Roger
Maybe they’ll use higher wages to pay for the “Wall”...
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@Roger
The question is what happens to those cars produced with parts where the minimum wage is less than $16/hr. Will they be banned form the market or will they have to pay a tariff? and what is the tariff for cars coming outside of any trade agreement? 5%? will that be enough to justify moving production back to the US?
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@Roger
Careful!!! 40% of parts have to come from a factory with AVERAGE wages of $16/hr. Nobody is stupid. What happens now is a little ancillary building at the Mexican factories. Where the engineers, accounts and other highly paid people worked USED TO BE in a separate building. Now it will be attached to the factory and VOILA, and average wage of $16/hr is magically made.
Nothing is really going to change on that front--they just will be lots of accountancy about whose labour made up what percentage of a vehicle. Is a part made from a patented idea expensive becuase of the labour to make it or the labour of the guy who designed it? And will it average out to $16/hr.
That $200 Nike shoe that costs $3.10 in materials and $1.15 in labour still costs $200. Put the guy(s) responsible for the $195.25 in the same building as the guy who gets $1.15 and it all counts toward a $16 average. Put Bill Gates in a Mexican auto factory and they suddenly are all averaging $16/hr. That's what is going to go on.
Send your CEO who is getting $20M year to the factory for 8 hrs per year. That'll drag average wages up in a hurry. Don't worry. REAL workers aren't actually going to get paid more.
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I've got to wonder -- do you think that American farmers will still call this a "victory" after the Canadian consumer boycott of any and all American dairy products -- or anything that contains American dairy products -- kicks in?
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@curious
i for one will never buy an American dairy product. One reason is they are contaminated with hormones. The other reason is that until America comes to its senses and replaces Trump and the Republicans with a decent, honest and ethical president and congress, I will not buy American products.
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@curious
Why did Canda then resist opening its market to American Dairy if they are so sure no one will buy american products?
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@JK Because the food PROCESSING industry will use it in place of Canadian milk. They will whine that it's cost-prohibitive to label products containing US milk and so consumers of any processed food will have no choice. Many of us will start making our own pizzas with Canadian or European cheese.
2
Was this new agreement negotiated in the best interest of all Americans? Or was it negotiated for the benefit of specific corporations that make the right political donations?
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@Patricia Y It actually benefits family farms and U.S. labor unions. Trump is not the typical Republican and this is not the typical Republican trade deal. Bernie was a "huge" supporter of increasing the minimum wage for Mexican auto workers and improving union access to Mexican workers. He also represents a state with a large dairy industry (relative to other industries in Vermont). This will also help New York dairy farmers. It will be interesting to see how the Senators from those two states (strongholds of the Resistance) react to this agreement.
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@Alexander Messier
It's highly doubtful this will be helpful to American dairy farmers. It's a sector that NEEDS the supply management system the Canadians have and the Americans don't. Lower prices aren't the only factor. Canadians understand very well what the difference between the CFIB and USDA is. One is a highly professional, non-partisan, unionized workforce food inspection agency whose ENTIRE and SOLE purpose is to ensure that no one ever contracts food-borne illnesses from something they inspected. The other is the USDA. And funny enough, lots of food has each agency's respective stamp on it. And the USDA stuff tends to stay on the shelf--because Canadians KNOW what risk that stamp entails.
Can you say "Jack in the Box." Canadians can! They don't forget. Costco in Canada has completely given up on trying to sell USDA beef. It won't sell. They have a hard time moving US pork, too. The dairy farmers are smart. They get their logo put on products that contain 100% Canadian milk. Those sell. The antibiotic, hormone-laced US products -- not so much.
Trump did not rip up NAFTA. This is NAFTA-lite with concessions to our trading partners to get it done by self-imposed deadline. The bones and blood vessels are NAFTA. The only thing Trump got was an unpronounceable acronym.
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@VisaVixen
It's called a shiny new thing, in between commercials during faux news Faux News and friends.
5
@VisaVixen -- You mean the US CAnada & Mexico Trade Agreement?
U-SCAM?
It would be great if the NYT could provide more context and information re "wins" and losses in trade agreements. We "win" by forcing excess dairy production unto another nation even as we subsidize said production. The US dairy industry relies on state and federal support for over 70% of their income -- it is a behemoth pricing structure: https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/42300/15268_aib761_1_.pdf?v=0
Not sure this is a win for anybody -- specially since we exerted considerable "blackmail" pressure in order to further subsidize (now through trade policy) an industry that needs to be reformed. Ditto for auto industry. It is a "win" for Canada and Mexico since they will be allowed to continue to "export" American cars to the US ... Sounds like a win for Ford and GM. All of this is more complicated than it seems. Only winner is Trump who created a problem in order to "solve" it and make political hay out of it. Sad.
250
@Joe
Fact is if you want to sell cars in Canada you are going to have to put your plants in Canada.
Canada had its own automobile industry until it was bought out by GM and Ford many decades ago.
If you don't make your cars here, we won't buy them.
As for me, I buy Toyotas and Hondas, because they are made here and are more reliable and longer lasting than US cars.
Simple as that.
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No one is “forcing” excess dairy production into Canada. The Canadian consumer needs to purchase those products, and have historically been reluctant to do that due in part to hormones and antibiotics in American beef and milk. Then there is the Canadian prerogative to boycott American products.
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@Joe The losers are American consumers who will be paying higher prices.
1
Sounds like a reasonable deal.
The bullying and brinksmanship to get here were probably counter-productive to getting the best agreement, and to our long-term relationships. But a relatively rational outcome.
As far as I can recall, this is a first for the Trump Administration.
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@NFC
Perhaps.
But one renogotisted trade agreement does transform a foreign policy...and an improved economy can only do so much to rebuild a reputation tarnished by distrust and controversy.
3
Great!
I look forward to more news and details.
Will be sure to brief my clients today.
Glad to see we won this trade discussion.
Next a deal with Europe please.
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@AutumLeaff
You "won" this trade discussion. I doubt it.
Canada has for a long time wanted to renegotiate NAFTA in order to update it and tackle some problem areas such as America's propensity to use the trade deal as a political weapon.
Trump campaigned to toss it out altogether and impose tariffs. Then he changed to renegotiation, which is what Canada wanted.
Doesn't sound like he won anything.
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@AutumLeaff
If you’re looking at Canadian media and the Canadian dollar today, you wouldn’t be under the impression America “won” much.
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Given the age of NAFTA, it was probably due for revision, but is this really a new agreement as suggested by our president, or something more modest? Will it result in more US jobs? GDP growth? Time will tell, of course, but none of this really matters to President Trump as even the name change alone would have been claimed as a win and a campaign promise kept.
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@Scott B
Well, NAFTA was originally negotiated by Bush, it was ratified during the Clinton Administration.
If it was a bad deal before as the Cheeto in Chief said, then blame the republicans, since it's not any better, blame the republicans.
@Scott B from what I have read, this is, at best, NAFTA v2.0
3
Looks like what trade agreements were, are, and will be. Nothing seems fundamentally changed to the principle of negotiating trade deals. Over time trade deals are always adjusted, revised, and improved based on economic realities.
What has changed under Trump that trade deals become life spectacles. No doubt Trump supporters will hail it as a promise delivered.
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During the NAFTA negotiations there was a robust discussion of environmental issues that resulted in the creation and funding of NADB and the BECC (now folded into NADB).
For the USMCA, there was zero discussion of environmental concerns and no reporting at all on the lack of environmental discourse during negotiations.
So as the Mayor of a border beach town, we will be stuck holding the bill for the increase in water and air pollution as a result of the increased industrialization of our region. The people of the border region will suffer and corporate profits will be plentiful since they pay zero to prevent the discharge of toxic waste into border region watersheds.
How do I know that--because recently the head of the IBWC informed a room full of stakeholders in San Diego that the costs of border cleanup must be borne by local agencies and non-profits and that the federal govt. had no responsibility at all for preventing sewage, toxic waste and solid waste pollution along the border.
Serge Dedina, Ph.D.
Mayor of Imperial Beach, CA
Executive Director
WILDCOAST/COSTASALVAJE
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@Serge Dedina at the rate people and businesses are leaving CA, I don’t think you need to worry about industrialization.
@Tim Kulhanek
You've been in the Texas sun way to long. California, isn't going to be vacant any time soon. Texas on the other hand, could be used for nuclear testing, and no one would care.
What a weird comment. California just surpassed Great Britain and is now the 5th largest economy in the world. Think of all the nations they have surpassed. Anybody who wants to know how to have a strong economy might take a look at California.
Not a fan of Trump's bullying, but it seems his economic advisers reached a good deal here.
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@Chris
Maybe. Time will tell.
2
@Chris
but you are a Trump fan too, correct?
3
Excellent summary. Thanks.
German newspapers are also stating that German car companies will need to adjust their supply chains to include more North American content.
This isn't a win for President Trump. This is a win, albeit a modest one, for U.S. manufacturing and agricultural entities, not to mention Mexican workers, and Canada in terms of the resolution tribunal.
This is only a first step. The next steps will be locking down agreements with Japan and the EU.
These initial steps will set up the biggest move, an expanded tariff regime on Chinese goods, which will be supported by a united North American, EU, Japanese, South Korean front.
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@John
Then let the EU, and the rest pay those tariffs, they are like sanctions they hurt the people.
1
We'll see how that turns out. If Mexican auto workers get better pay, I can't see how that would help US auto makers here in the US. It will raise car prices, so people will keep their old cars a couple of years longer. And more workers will stay in Mexico. In fact, if Trump forces Mexico to allow unions, maybe some of our workers will move there. Or to Canada.
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@John
"which will be supported by a united North American, EU, Japanese, South Korean front."
Hmm. I don't think you'll find that Europe has quite the same take on China as Mr Trump.
In fact, over the last couple of years, Brussels and Beijing have been getting very cosy whilst, at the same time, Europe/USA relations have become distinctly cooler. Frankly, many Europeans would regard China as somewhat the more reliable partner.
1