Dear Florence,
Could you please make a little detour, a bit more north? Maybe you can cause a badly needed very strong fresh wind at about a big white house. Thank you.
Besides that, with this climatechange one should consider if living within 50 miles (or even further?) from an hurricaneprone coast is still desirable. May sound strange and very long term but do the maths.
Stay safe.
2
Has Trump gotten his supply of 'relief' paper towels to take down after the storm? It's what passes for 'relief' in Trumpland. I hear they really help dry one out the 'quicker picker upper' way. Great job! Very efficient! Flood resistant! The inner cardboard tubes can be recycled as flotation devices. Keep casualties to a dozen or less, just like in Puerto Rico....
Let Them Eat Paper Towels
Opinion
By Paul Krugman
NEW YORK TIMES
Oct. 12, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/12/opinion/trump-tweets-puerto-rico.html
2
Of course I’m concerned about all the citizens on NC, SC, and VA that may be greatly affected. As great a concern are all the farmers, growers who will lose crops that have yet to be harvested and even worse all the livestock that can’t be evacuated and will perish in cages, ie poultry and hog factory farmers. This will also affect every resident in any range of the open air outs of animal waste, with the contamination to land and fresh waterways.
4
They vote for politicians who don’t believe in climate change and who voted against helping us in the aftermath of Sandy. Hard to forget. I’m not saying no help, just hard to forget.
20
@Zejee “They,” huh? Not me. But “othering” and “demonizing” people we feel are not like us is a page out of Trump’s playbook. It’s an interesting challenge to see if you and others can resist thinking deplorably, isn’t it?
2
republicans in Congress didn't even want to pay NY damages in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, but NOW governors of republican states North & South Carolina want federal emergency declarations BEFORE THE STORM EVEN HITS and you can bet they're preparing the bill they want the rest of us to pay even now.
They can have my thoughts and prayers.
9
Unfortunately, his words ring hollow anymore.
1
Yeah, some people say that they deserve what they get due to their lack of support for 'scientific models,' etc, but the reality is guess who's going to wind up paying for all the damage...
3
Let’s just re-word the 2nd amendment to read “The right to unlimited paper towels shall not be infringed”.
3
I recall our Christian southern friends insinuating that New York was battered so badly during Sandy and Irene because of our acceptance of homosexuals.
I'm wondering if North Carolina, and its mostly Christian population, is going to be punished by Florence for their support of Trump, or their not changing their gerrymandered voting districts that will adversely affect the poor and disadvantaged.
24
@galtsgultch
My, one wonders how you can breathe riding on that miles-high horse. Shame on you for turning a potential disaster into an opportunity to score cheap personal smugness and moral superiority points. This sentiment helps nothing but your own ego.
2
The good people in North Carolina have nothing to worry about. As reported in 2016 "A controversial law in North Carolina, known as House Bill 819 (S.L. 2012-201), bans state and local agencies from basing its coastal policies on scientific models indicating an accelerating rise in sea level in favor of historical linear predictions. " The state, which voted for Trump, can rest easy in his assurance that global warming is just a Chinese hoax.
Why I bet the reports of the storm are just more fake news by those 17 angry Democrats on the Trump witch-hunt!!
10
Many are saying we in the Carolinas are getting what we deserve for voting for climate denying candidates. I have no problem with that. The majority of state politicians either don't believe in man-made global warming or don't want to do anything about it. Trey Gowdy got his seat in congress, in large part, because his fellow Republican, Bob Ingles, wanted to do something about it.
My only problem, (aside from the fact that Florence may affect me) is that, no matter how devastating the storm will be, most Carolinians will not draw the connection between it's unusual intensity and global warming. Florence will be just be an act of God. And we the ignorant taxpayers will be asked, yet again, to pony up for more expensive repair and renourishment projects.
32
We are here for you! No, not you, Puerto Rico! Put your hand down! I have already thrown all the paper towel rolls I will throw for you.
13
I feel sorry for the people in in the Carolinas with this category 4 hurricane. It is something very wretched to be in. I know because I lived here in Florida during hurricane Andrew, Katrina, Wilma and others. But none of these can compare to what I went though in October 1962 when I was on a military ship headed home to Brooklyn from France. The ship destination was the Brooklyn Army Terminal. It was five days in a category 3 storm Ella in the Atlantic. To keep us entertained, we listened to the word series between the Yanks and San Francisco.
I was very young and was able to take the battering of the ship by the storm. I would not be able to do so today.
Now lets see how Trump will respond, we all know it would not be the same as he did with Puerto Rico for red states North and South Carolina.
Carolina'
9
It's shocking to hear from residents who don't have the means to flee (to pay for hotels) or are afraid they will be separated from their pets.
But for the sake of your loved ones, please try. A friend's daughter decided to wait out Irma in Key West last year, and her mother never passed a longer 24 hours than when her daughter was out of contact.
5
@Kathleen Warnock
It should not be shocking Kathleen. There are many many poor communities in coastal areas inland through North and South Carolina. Most of these people cannot afford to go anywhere. If they have a running car or caring neighbor they might make it to a shelter.
Today as we bow our heads and remember everyone who died remember also what this country has always stood for. What we did after 9/11. We came together. We mourned and still do together. Show empathy, compassion, consideration. Then continue to show pride and offer your help.
9
@Elly I'll be happy to send a carton of bootstraps.
4
And I’ll be happy to let you know I was born and raised in the smallest state in the union and came down here a few short years ago. I am an avid liberal who finds our administration reprehensible. What I am not is someone who will ever take pleasure in anyone’s pain. Loss of home or loss of life. You have a good day. God bless.
2
Some wise person said it's hard for a man to admit the truth when his livelihood depends on denying it.
Climate change denial will be hard on a lot of us. I hope more folks will be able to see the relationship between bigger, more damaging storms and global warming.
I also hope those in the path of Florence find safety.
23
@memosyne - Climate change denial? There are a collective of fools that will need convincing the ISS picture isn't a fake due to the Earth being flat.
5
Too bad Trump’s tweet about being here for you doesn’t include something about climate change.
9
@Jo De Too bad he doesn't actually go there. :-)
5
We are two+ hours from the coast but still nervous due to having large farm animals. There is no perfect answer of whether to keep them in or get them away from a barn which might come apart. However, putting things in perspective, our thoughts this morning are with the folks living on the coast. God speed!
21
Let's wait and see how the Bloviator-in-Chief handles this one, or is he still too busy slamming Woodward's book and seeking the author of the anonymous NYT op-ed? I feel sorry for the Carolinas, even if they did vote for Trump, but I wouldn't mind seeing some flooding at Mar-a-Lago as payback for his latest envronmental rollbacks.
33
@Christy
My sincere hope is that he flies down to downplay the severity and gets sucked up into a cyclone and lands in the Amazon and gets lost the rest of his life in the jungle.
22
@Devin Greco
Or a maybe a real-life swamp, other than the one of his own making in Washington?
1
This administration started early on with hate mongering of and further separating this country. Though a true New England native and believing in climate change, never would I at a time of danger and emergency hit out at others. A lot of us didn’t vote for these people. He wins when you act as he does. I m not saying don’t call him out, but when you lose your humanity, his agenda progresses. Pray irregardless for all.
11
Perhaps a trivial point, but I am astonished at the number of North and South Carolinians who reportedly said they won't evacuate because of their dogs. Surely human lives would be a top priority - and in areas where these storms are so frequent, pet owners could have a plan.
11
@Erda: why are human lives top priority?
6
@Randé, if you had to make a choice, would you choose your partner, parent, relative, over your pet? Good luck with that.
2
@Erda Pets are part of the family. Would you leave a family member behind and evacuate yourself in advance of a storm?
12
I'm sad to read so many insensitive comments implying that the Carolinas don't deserve help because Trump ignored Puerto Rico, because some SC congressmen voted against Hurricane Sandy relief, and a litany of other politically-charged reasons.
Next time you'd like to indulge in the schadenfreude that comes with potential devastation red states, please remember that millions of us here are trying desperately to overthrow GOP tyranny. We don't deserve whatever retribution you think fit simply by virtue of living in the "wrong" states.
82
@David,
I do not wish harm to people who have voted against the government and measures that would protect them.
however, I can't help wondering why they do vote against their best interests, knowing by now, how devastating climate change could be on their lives and their children's.
14
@David Agreed! The fact that Obama won in N.C. in 2008 put a bullseye on it by the GOP. They couldn’t bear N.C. turning purple or blue and have, as we’ve seen, upped the gerrymandering to try to stop “creeping progressivism” into the South.
Each red state has “blue blobs” in it. As Alabama showed when it ousted Roy Moore, we’d be smarter to support these blue blobs (the frontlines!) to expand.
13
@JA Religion
1
I hope everyone is safe. If homes are destroyed, I hope people will not build them back in the same place counting on tax dollars and insurance to keep bailing them out. We need forward thinking coastal management programs that create wide barriers between homes and sea.
19
@Joe Barnett They rebuilt in Nola and it's below seawater in many areas!
1
I’ll bet you that once again this will turn out to be just a couple of rainy days. Why are we so bad at predicting this stuff. Remember last year when the whole state of Florida was evacuated for no reason? And yet they’ll have you convinced that they know what the weather will be like in 50 years. Yeah, right.
4
@JP,
"Why are we so bad at predicting this stuff."
because we didn't invest in advanced technologies. the European weather systems are much better than our NOAA.
14
@JP When preparing for a disaster, prepare for the worst case.
Tedious technicalities follow: We're "so bad at predicting this stuff" because the weather is a chaotic system. Small changes in any one variable could have large consequences. We just just can't tell precisely which ones. Florence will hit somewhere along the Carolina coast. Whether she will hit further north or south isn't predictable until the day or two before landfall. And exactly where the center will hit won't be predictable until a few hours before, by which time the leading edge will already be over land.
Cliamet is merely the cycle of weather from one year to the next. We can't predict in which year really bad hurricanes will occur, nor where, but we can be predict that they will occur. Climate change means the cycle changes, initially that the weather will cycle over larger extremes. Until it hits a tipping point, and the the cycle itself changes into a new pattern. Probably one that we can't adapt to fast enough.
12
@JP -- really JP? You wanna bet? Got any real money to put where your mouth is?
I'm sure a LOT of people living in NC and SC would take your bet right now, very happily.
6
Meanwhile, this administration continues to roll back environmental rules, and policies. Vote out the Greed Over Planet hypocrites. November 2018.
44
Reading the comments here I'm a bit astonished that so many people could show so little compassion for the folks likely to be affected by this hurricane. Here in North Carolina the people who will likely bear the brunt of the storm are relatively-to-very-much poor. Many are people of color (though color shouldn't be a factor in the calculus of compassion) and large numbers are still rebuilding from Hurricane Matthew which devastated communities nearly two years ago.
If you think these people shouldn't live in areas prone to flooding, remember that many of them have lived in the same areas for generations, some are too poor to move elsewhere, and some genuinely love the areas they live and are still adapting to a geography that is only newly becoming prone to major flooding due to climate change.
I don't pretend to know the political orientation of the folks who will be worst affected by this storm. But I have always felt that Americans pull together when others suffer, whether by flooding, earthquake, fires, volcanoes or other disasters, natural or unnatural. Looking at a community's voting record before determining whether they need help is callus and wrong, no matter who does it.
144
Well said.
4
@Ken You are right that the poor, who are already living on the edge, are the ones getting pushed over the edge that the rest of us may follow later.
Around a billion people on the planet don't use fossil fuels, but are getting hit by those who do.
6
@Ken my family has vacationed in Hatteras Village for the last 25 years. The people who live and work there are just as you describe...good people who are living as simply, and as best they can. I think many commenters are confusing the builders of mega mansions ( I call them Sand Castles) that have appeared on this fragile ecosystem in the last 20years with the people who’ve lived there for generations. Many of those castles are owned by REITs, not individuals. Certainly not most of the native population. One thing that keeps haunting me is hearing how, in order to get federal flood insurance, residents have to lift their house up 15+ feet..cost is over $30k to do this. Unaffordable for many. My heart breaks for what they will face in the aftermath of this storm. Hatteras is a beautiful place..nothing like it. It’s unspolied and wonderful..as are the people who actually live there. Have some heart, folks. I hate Trump, and the GOP, and it’s agenda as much as anyone. But I can’t help praying my fellow countrymen escape without much damage to their homes and livlihoods.
25
Even as this killer storm barrels toward us, Trump is removing protections to mitigate climate change.
Can't take too much more "winning"
33
Will he treat the red states the way he treated Puerto Rico?
35
Where ever this Cat 4 hurricane decides to make landfall, my deepest thoughts go out to the people who have the least resources to withstand a long term interruption of their hard- working, daily lives. So many, too many, in fact, of these service and blue collar individuals are either severely underpaid or have no time-off pay benefits. There is no one there to say 'we will give you a small stipend to help get you, your pet(s), your family, out of harms way either at a motel or at a shelter, until the storm passes', to alleviate the anxiety that these workers must be experiencing.
Sadly, there will be some who may die.
We must try harder, as a country, to help our neighbors. Much harder.
35
The climate changes, it always has. There are tons of shells in the dirt of my Miami Beach home. It was underwater once, it will be again.
It was neither trump, the democrats or the tooth fairy who was responsible for it, it's the natural order of things.
Are we helping it along? Yes, but to give all the credit for climate change to humans may be giving us a bit more credit than we deserve.
We are in the final stages of grieving here crossing from anger to acceptance.
Accept it.
We will build higher sea-walls and barriers. We will lose some ground such as New Orleans eventually but the government will NOT let the wealth of Manhattan, DC or Miami go under. Plans are already under way. It will be expensive but don't underestimate what humans can do with billions of dollars.
5
@There. You left one thing out: time. People focus on the sea level change that may happen in 100 years, say, and forget precisely how long 100 years is. We have billions of dollars and lots of time.
4
@David G When does your "100 years" start? 50 years from now? Some time after you're dead and buried and can't be bothered? Sea level change is here NOW and you can't be be bothered.
5
@David G -- no "we" do not have billions of dollars, nor lots of time. I sure do not.
Sounds to me as though you and There never read Aesop's fable of the grasshopper and the ant.
3
Many more devastating fires, floodings and storms all the way up to Washington DC are seemingly required to drive home the scientifically established reality of climate change to many members of the US political class and the electorate. It has begun, so let's see how long it takes to sink in.
20
I sure hope the people of SC will be OK. Charleston was one of the prettiest and friendliest cities I ever visited.
Be assured, Trump will give himself an A+ for any help given!
(Don't be jealous, Puerto Rico.)
12
Move to Chicago or Cleveland, everybody. Nice shore fronts (fresh water too!), lots of urban amenities, no hurricanes.
Seriously.
As global warming takes an increasing toll on the east coast, it will eventually dawn on people that some adaptations will have to be made.
Meanwhile, may all in the path of the storm make it through.
12
@Svrwmrs
Don't you think your lake shore line will rise as well?
10
@Svrwmrs
I'm in Chicago. Last month, due to a downpour, my street flooded and my car was half-underwater. I was able to dry it out, and now I park on the hill.
Strange times we're living in.
7
@Joe Barnett -- no Joe, it won't ... except for processes natural or manmade that dam its outflow.
I wonder how fast the South Carolina Congressional delegation (5/6 of whom voted against the Hurricane Sandy Aid Package) are going to come to the federal government and wealthy (read: liberal) states with their hands out. I hope they've got some good strong bootstraps...
51
I'm actually headed down to Myrtle Beach today as my flight was not cancelled and the airline would not let me change it without a major fee. I have a place down there. I think the evacuation order for the entire coast of South Carolina is a bit extreme and early. The storm is now tracking further north and is set to hit smack in the middle of North Carolina. Also the inland flooding is going to be on an epic scale and present a whole set of other problems for those who flee. Basically, where is nowhere to evacuate to that is really a whole lot safer. I'm on the 3rd floor so not worried about being flooded out or storm surge. But certainly the wind & loss of power will be difficult. Also my wife and I have 4 animals which makes evacuation even more difficult. Wish us luck as we ride out the storm from the 3rd floor one block in from the ocean.
29
@Mike L There definitely need to be more sheltering options for people of limited means who also have pets.
4
Once again major media only mentions US concerns. Isaac will first have to cross over Dominica which was just as badly hit as Puerto Rico by Maria.
We have made a miraculous recovery so far but we can't take another hit. Please don't be so US centric as to only mention Puerto Rico as if the lives in the rest of the Caribbean are not so important.
24
You really have to be both uninformed and somewhat perverse to exhibit joy of how devastating this hurricane may be and that it is once again (roll of drums) proof of climate change. That's pure bunk.
And I knew the loons would be getting anxious when we went all through august without any major hurricanes forming. And know, almost the middle of sept, we have 1 major hurricane. Compare that with, oh say, 1893 (pre climate change, wouldn't you agree) when there were 12 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 majors. Wow. How could that happen? Trump wasn't even president then. (Note to readers, since we didn't have satellites and had no air traffic and less boat traffic, the numbers for the 19th and up to mid 20th centuries are probably under-reported).
Now we may have a few more hurricanes this year, some majors. Or maybe we don't. But the number and intensity have nothing to do with global warming. There is no evidence for that and no evidence that there is a significant change in hurricane activity. There are lots of different factors that influence hurricanes. If the high pressure systems hadn't formed above Florence in the Atlantic, she might have headed north and might have not intensified as much.
Hurricanes are bad news. But don't use them to sound the CC alarm. That's silly.
8
@Ralphie Actually scientists knew back as far as the Lyndon B Johnson administration that C02 causes global warming. So maybe it was already having an effect in the early 80s. Who's being silly now? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-l...
12
@Mark Crozier Mark -- that's just silly. I was using 1893. Lyndon Johnson wasn't president. And what they knew was that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. There's lot's of other factors that affect climate.
@Mark Crozier
...And scientists knew as far back as 1878 that changes in the sun were causing unprecedented warming and were likely to doom us all:
"Professor Lockyer alone admits that the changes in the sun must have very serious results, but few persons believe him... As it is, he has injured his reputation by telling truths which his more astute rivals preferred to suppress.... Now, we only know too well that the heat during the present Summer has been unprecedented, and that the last Winter was one of exceptional mildness. Moreover, there has been a very obvious increase in the heat of the climate during the last thirty years.... The snow no longer lies for months in our streets, and the rivers, which used to be frozen from December to March, are now closed to navigation only during a very few weeks in mid-winter.... If this sort of thing continues, it will not be many years before the heat becomes so great that it will be insupportable.... We of this generation have no immediate cause of alarm, but our posterity will find things excessively warm for them, and it is perhaps our duty to advise them not to come."
https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1878/08/03/80724325.pdf
Who is being silly now, indeed? Surely not you or the NYTimes! Perhaps it is the previous poster, who believed he could use both data and clear logic to make his point?
Meanwhile in other news the Trump administration, via what’s left of the agency known as the EPA, is preparing to roll-back the energy industry’s restrictions on the release of methane. Methane is one of the most powerful of greenhouse gasses. The Obama administration had enacted to limit and monitor the amount of methane the oil industry could release into the atmosphere during production. But since that’s inconvenient and expensive, and since the human factors in climate change are a “Chinese hoax” Trump is eager to rid the industry of these burdensome regulations.
33
My sincere thoughts and prayers are with those who are in the storms path. I pray that you are able to leave if you want. If for whatever reason you don’t want to leave, I pray for your health and safety.
We seem to go through this at least once every year now. Maybe it’s always been that way and the news reporting is just better. Maybe we’re just more aware of other places.
Or maybe the world is changing, through our fault or not.
Whatever the case, I pray for those about to face the consequences of this storm.
6
Please also pray for humanity to respond appropriately to the threat of all the hurricanes to come. For us to acknowledge the facts, to develop commensurate solutions, and to work together nationally and internationally to implement them. For most of us in the US, this primarily means voting, in some cases for different candidates that we have in the past, and also supporting the voting rights of all our citizens.
Donald T. Party doesn’t really care about Southern states if the headline story starts:
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration, taking its third major step this year to roll back federal efforts to fight climate change, is preparing to make it significantly easier for energy companies to release methane into the atmosphere. [Coral Davenport reporting.]
I think Donald and his fellow smog lovers just handed the South to the Democratic Party for a very, very long time.
13
@Rosie Cass wahahahahahahahahahhh
It's going to be catastrophic. We'll see FEMA coffers depleted and all of us on the coast will see insurance rates move up but it STILL beats living where the ocean is 100 miles away.
#wortheverypenny
1
One of my first memories is Hurricane Hazel. I am remember hearing the wind and feeling afraid. My mother comforted me. I am a psychotherapist here in Wilmington. I spent yesterday and will spend today comforting people. Yesterday I gave a woman who barely lives paycheck to paycheck money to buy food for her dogs. Today I will go and help her take apart her animal crate so that she can go to the shelter that houses human beings with their pets. If she does not go, she may not live. She has severe breathing issues. The power in her home will disappear. Her hope is in the one shelter that is opening. People are being told to leave. Some cannot as they do not have a place to go or the money to take them there. I will help her and the others in my practice with comfort. It is the least that I can do. It made a huge difference in my life over six decades ago.
34
@Ed Tilley All the best to you and the others in harm's way.
4
Will they get the Puerto Rico treatment from trump? Of course, not... They are red states.
14
A small info item about hurricane season. Following Florence is Helene, then Isaac, then Paul. Geez, were already up to "P" in hurricane naming.
Don't forget to vote this November, your life may depend on it.
18
Seems that God was not pleased with the progress on rebuilding Puerto Rico.
Since this administration doesn't think that helping Spanish speaking *AMERICAN* citizens is a priority,
she's sending a large slow moving, category 4 hurricane directly into the heart of Trump Country.
"Never the less, she persisted" indeed!
18
Fear not: President Trump is perfecting his technique for dispensing paper towels to the masses. It will be the greatest response ever! Everyone will be talking about what a great response it was.
31
@Alan R Brock They already are! ;-)
5
Paint stores sell 5 gallon pails with lids for about $5. You can fill them with water and a little bleach and the water will keep for years. The phone books in California used to tell people to do that to prepare for earthquakes.
If water comes inside, it can make a huge difference if you just put blocks of wood under stuff to raise it an inch or two. It would still get wet if there is a lot of water inside but more likely to dry out before ruined and easier for the water to get out.
6
@Kay Plastic containers are cheaper and lighter to tote, especially w the addition of water. Adding a plastic tarp over whatever is used to elevate the furniture/books may add a layer of protection. Praying this is not needed but better to be prepared. My daughter is in the hurricane's direct path, I hope the scheduled surgeries are completed prior to noon today.
7
@Lydia Jones You put the five gallon CLEAN paint buckets in the bathtub, over the drain hole. You put water in the tub first.. about a foot, then fill that five gallon bucket with clean water. You then have clean water to brush your teeth and wash your face while the power is out for days. AND to flush the toilet! In the kitchen, you fill all your pots and pans with clean water and anything else that will hold water. Plenty of flashlights/a battery operated radio, plenty of extra batteries. Ice for the freezer; food that does not require refrigeration
Amazing that people here find occasion to bash Trump for a seasonal storm. Obama has been quoted a lot lately, in the N.Y. Times, too, saying "You didn't build that" in reference to the economic growth of late and Trump's claim of credit. Well, folks, it's the economic growth that's building these giganto storms. Let's face reality.
A lot of the rich folks whose outer banks homes are threatened helped build that economic growth, too.
And looks like there's going to be a lot of economic growth after the storm, rebuilding those vacation homes. In fact, these events are doing their part to stimulate the economy by pumping in billions of dollars after every event. But you don't hear the Home Depot shareholders complaining.
I would wager that apart from the sheer thrill many armchair survivalists are experiencing watching this storm, a lot of business people are very eagerly anticipating the aftermath. Perhaps we should feel sorry for the true victims... The insurance companies... The brides whose long planned galas are going to be postponed...
And you can be Obama is going to say he didn't build that.
7
I am not sure what you are trying to say here!
12
@AJ, with this rationale we could cheerfully light a match to a different state every year in the name of “economic growth.” Just so long as it’s not your house that goes up in flames.
9
I also don’t find it necessary to politicize a natural disaster, however, what you’re describing is not how economics work. You’re getting confused by the parable of the broken window:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
“The parable of the broken window was introduced by French economist Frédéric Bastiat in his 1850 essay "Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See") to illustrate why destruction, and the money spent to recover from destruction, is not actually a net benefit to society.”
All that recovering money would be going towards normal channels if people weren’t forced to rebuild with it.
7
From the rampant Fires that we are continually experiencing in Southern Oregon (and Northern California), to the oncoming Hurricanes on the Eastern Seaboard ~ one thing becomes very clear; you had better be able to pack up as much of your Life and belongings as you can, and get "out of there" as darn fast as you can.
Someone can blame Mother Earth's amplified Storm damage & Fire damage on Global Warming, (and, I do) but the bigger picture ~ right NOW ~ is; here comes BIG trouble ~ and, how do You evacuate, and Quickly ??
I don't count on FEMA to be there quickly when I need them to help me in a disaster. Tell it to New Orleans. In balance to that, it is really pretty easy to keep your basic water and food/stay warm-& dry-supplies handy. Cell phones and computers do go down, and for awhile, when the power grid goes down. Don't rely on those devices. And, if you have livestock, you are even busier finding shelter and transportation for them.
And then, hopefully, you have some good Neighbors, and a great Neighborhood, that will all stick together, and see you through this storm, and maybe more.
Good luck, Carolinas . That Storm looks Big.
23
Having a strong experience of losing power for a week during Hurricane Sandy here in NJ, I began urging my son in NC last Friday to buy supplies, get cash, food and water, gas the cars and prepare. While he's not on the ocean, neither was I.
Saturday, I sent texts with Weather Channel maps.
Sunday, I sent articles from his own NC newspaper showing stores out of pallets of water.
Monday, he drove to stores and found no water.
Amazon was charging $33.00/gallon to his zip code
Hoping that next time, adult son remembers mom's advice.
29
@mainesummers
Why do people buy water before storms instead of filling up containers from their household taps? Those who don't evacuate can fill bathtubs and sinks also.
7
@mainesummers
There's a law against gauzing in most states. Hows awful.
@wobbly Beacuse there are a lot of places where tap water isn't really drinkable. We take it for granted, here in New York, where we literally have the best water on earth, but many places even in the US, people have to put filters on the taps or drink bottled water. Plus, my bathtub is kinda gross; I don't know if I'd really want to be drinking water than had just been sitting in it for a few days.
Climate change is a reality that only a few diehard Americans will deny. With few exceptions (Sandy?) it appears that there is almost always a precedent for severe weather events - “we haven’t seen a hurricane like Florence since Fran”. Many new high temperature records break ones set 50-100 years ago. Thus it seems to me that the current true measure of the effect of climate change is the frequency of such events, not the simple fact of their occurrence. I.E. climate has not yet unleashed unheard of devastation, and we are not yet in unfamiliar territory. Heaven help us when that changes.
15
@Jon Mark -- the evidence we have (pretty good evidence too) is that Global Warming will not increase the numbers of hurricanes, but it will increase their strengths, particularly increasing the amount of water they precipitate.
Because hurricanes are few it will take awhile before clear statistical evidence for this accumulates.
4
Ms. Brown's story is almost exactly the story of my relatives who are right along that coast, with a new baby as well as pets. This is the first time my family has extended family in the direct path of category 4-5 storm and we'll be on pins and needles worrying about their safety. With that being said, any resident of coastal islands and towns, know full well that they're vulnerable if they choose to live there....My cousins included. You just have to hope they used the time they had wisely, to get their newborn to safety and making sure they had extra formula and pet food. As of yesterday afternoon, bottled water, was already scarce.
12
Consider the science that makes it possible in 2018 to show the probable path of the eye of the hurricane and the rise of water level referred to as storm surge. Take another look at the map and at the satellite image. Without a National Hurricane Center and the science it employs to make its forecasts there would be no basis for state officials to issue mandatory evacuation orders.
If those orders are issued in time and the hurricane behaves as predicted, hour by hour lives will be saved. The NHC correctly predicted path and storm surge for Katrina but officials acted too late and too many people could not or would not evacuate in time. More than 1000 deaths were the result.
In a few days we will be provided with the newest lesson showing the importance of science and the extent to which officials and individuals are able to make use of that science to save lives.
I experienced the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane that tore into Rhode Island where I, then 6 years old, lived. No NHC science was available then. Are we headed for a return to 1938 as a know-nothing president dismantles scientific America?
NYT please visit those houses on stilts to take a post Florence picture supplemented by data on peak water level and wind velocity at that location - more such would be even better.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Professor emeritus, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Rochester
67
The juxtaposition of this article about the danger of Hurricane Florence with the news that the Trump administration wishes to roll back regulations to reduce methane - a very potent greenhouse gas - releases in oil and gas production is beyond ironic. The lack of compassion and care for their fellow citizens shown by the oil and gas industry, their lobbyists and their shills in the EPA is appalling. How much property should be destroyed and how many people killed just so they can make a bit more money?
90
@Michael Perot I just heard Mother Nature changing her mind. She will instead go right to MarALago and stay there for five days. DT is advised to go there trying to fend it off.
19
At this point the expected landfall is "as good as it gets;" there's no remaining chance it will turn and miss landfall, and no likelihood it will weaken much either (hot water and low sheer all the way in its path now).
If the storm veers northward it could hit the mouth of the Chesapeake head on. This would be unusual, normally Cape Hatteras protects the Chesapeake from storms with common recurving trajectories as they go extra-tropical.
But Florence has an unusual trajectory; sedimentary records in Chesapeake streams show that rare hurricanes have done it in recent geological history. That tidal surge in the Chesapeake from a category 4 would be devastating.
11
@Lee Harrison
The winds in a tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere spin counter clockwise, so the right hand semicircle is designated as the dangerous or if at sea, unsurvivable semicircle because the wind speed of the circular winds are enhanced by the forward speed of the storm.
If the storm is moving at 20 knots, that 20 knots is added to the windspeed of the storm on the right side. On the left side of the storm this is reversed.
So if you have a storm with 150mph sustained winds which is traveling at 20 knots, the windspeed on the ground on the right is 170mph and 130 on the left.
15
@Erik Frederiksen useful scientific addition, Erik. I just submitted a comment pointing to the importance of the science that makes forecasting possible but did not have space to note that the right first quadrant is where surge can be highest thanks to the pattern you refer to. In a few days, we will know more about the extent to which the NHC forecasting helped and about the effectiveness of decisions made by state officials and even the individuals who repeat the mantra, been through hurricanes before and I am still alive.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
@Erik Frederiksen
Thank you for sharing knowledge.
Trump should get down to Raleigh N.C. and lead the relief effort. He is the only one to make everything better. Maybe load up A.F. 1 with paper towels.
62
It's unacceptable that in 2018 in the US people have to choose to stay in the path of a hurricane or wring their hands over how they can get out with their pets or loved ones because they can't afford it. Why isn't the state government working with facilities in inland parts of their state or other states to set up housing? Seriously, governors, get it together. Your evacuation plans need to include housing for your citizens!
Why are people in this country always expected to just fend for themselves when we CLEARLY have the resources to take care of each other? Shame on all of us. So much greatness, I'm shaking my head at it.
50
@BrooklynDogGeek
Regarding fending for ourselves, from the NY Times regarding Alaskan towns and cities threatened by global warming impacts and the lack of help they are getting from the government. From November 2016. Note, the cost to move one village of around 600 people will cost an estimated $180 million.
"The government has identified at least 31 Alaskan towns and cities at imminent risk of destruction . . .
At least two villages farther up the western coast, Shishmaref and Kivalina, have voted to relocate when and if they can find a suitable site and the money to do so. A third, Newtok, in the soggy Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta farther south, has taken the first steps toward a move.
But, after years of meetings that led nowhere and pleas for government financing that remained unmet, Shaktoolik has decided it will “stay and defend,” at least for the time being, the mayor, Eugene Asicksik, said.
“We are doing things on our own,” he said."
If the government won’t appropriate the funds to move a few dozen small cities and towns, what will they do about the 1,400 cities and towns in the US threatened by sea level rise like Houston, New Orleans, Miami, NYC and Boston?
We’ll all be “doing things on our own.”
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/29/science/alaska-global-warm...
18
@BrooklynDogGeek State and national agencies cannot/will not provide low-cost housing where it is already needed so there is not a chance that housing could be built to provide shelter for single events that occur with unknown frequency along the US coast.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
8
That's inaccurate as well as besides the point. There are federal and state programs that provide housing and subsidies for housing. But getting back to my original comment...states will frequently create temporary shelters in convention centers, motels, gymnasiums, etc. and there's no mention of these in the article. And nowadays thanks to technology, we know days in advance of many disasters, enough time to organize shelter and transportation.
Think of a hurricane.
Think of the worst possible scenario.
Think of it to stall as it crosses land.
Think of high intensity.
Think of maximum damage.
Well think no more!
That is what we get these days all over the world.
Has climate changed? It is a fools question.
22
@SridharC
Changes in the northern polar jet stream, likely due to Arctic ice decline, appear to have caused Harvey to stall over Houston, where rainfall was measured in feet and broke a record for the continental US.
Those same changes caused Hurricane Sandy to follow an unusual and unusually destructive path, directly into land (like Florence's track is now) with the dangerous semicircle of the storm piled water ashore, funneling it up Long Island Sound.
As the Arctic warms faster than the global average the horizontal temperature gradient between the Arctic and the temperate latitudes slows the jet stream, so its getting stuck in these wavy patterns, causing weather patterns like heat waves to persist and heat to bleed north and cold south.
30
These severe storms and the droughts in other areas of the country are precisely what the climate scientists predicted twenty or so years ago, just coming to pass. And it’s going to get worse, especially if Trump has his way.
62
@RioConcho
Even more than twenty years ago.
From James Hansen, who ran what is, and hopefully not soon to be was under Trump, arguably the most prestigious Earth science organization on the planet, NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies for over 30 years. The following is from a 1981 paper by him that at the time hit the front page of the NY Times, all the projections in it have either come to pass or are well underway.
"Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage."
http://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/22/us/study-finds-warming-trend-that-coul...
24
@Erik Frederiksen
From that 1981 NY Times article, note the rate of sea level rise Hansen warned about, which only now current glaciology is catching up with.
"The seven atmospheric scientists predict a global warming of ''almost unprecedented magnitude'' in the next century.
It might even be sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea level.
In that case, they say, it would ''flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jersey and many other lowlands throughout the world'' within a century or less."
Within a century or less, from 1981 . . .
1
From the article: “this will be a worst-case scenario storm,”
The worst wouldn't be a heavily populated area wiped out by a combination of higher sea levels and stronger storms.
The worst would be if we spent billions of dollars on a coastal defense, and then built expensive infrastructure behind it under the mistaken impression we can hold back the ocean.
“Today, we’re struggling with 3 millimeters [0.1 inch] per year [of sea level rise],” says Robert DeConto at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, co-author of one of the more sobering new studies. “We’re talking about centimeters per year. That’s really tough. At that point your engineering can’t keep up; you’re down to demolition and rebuilding.”
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_a...
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet was reported in 2014 by two independent teams of scientists to be likely retreating irreversibly. And when it exceeds a threshold, perhaps in a few decades, the whole thing could go into the ocean in decades or less.
We need to get a whole lot smarter at adaptation than we were regarding New Orleans where everyone paying attention knew for decades that the city is sinking, the protective delta is eroding, sea level is rising and maximum storm strength may be increasing.
All theses things affect optimal levee design, but we ignored the science and 1,836 people died as a result.
29
@Erik Frederiksen -- you are right, it sure isn't "the worst scenario storm."
If it's actual track veers only a little north of the predictions, it could hit the mouth of the Chesapeake head on.
That would be a far worse disaster -- the storm surge would devastate an enormous basin, including Washington DC.
It will happen some day, but probably not in the next few days.
10
@Lee Harrison
Yes, one day. The US alone has 1,400 cities and towns threatened by the coming sea level rise and Washington DC is on the list.
2
Instead of 'draining the DC swamp' we flood it and flush out both houses of Congress and the White House....wonderful
Trump is loosening up his shooting arm so he can be ready to toss rolls of bounty to those who survive.
44
@Ronny And don't forget that our esteemed "first lady" can show up with him in a great pair of Louboutin heels and the rain jacket with the now infamous saying "I really don't care, do you?" Seriously though, hopefully people will heed the warnings and get to safer ground. A Category 5 is nothing to ignore....
6
We have already "began" mobilizing.....ugh.
14
How long are we going to be ants under the garden hose — continuing to pay for damage from these big storms that are totally predictable?? I, for one, want to stop flushing my tax dollars down the toilet like this. The Republicans and Trump are a disaster. We need climate change planning NOW!
42
What interested me this week is the hurricane heading for the Carolinas. This year has been filler with hurricanes, bad storms, heat waves, And it seems like it just doesn’t stop there. It seems like hurricane Florence isn’t holding back and I million people have been orders to evacuate. North and South Carolina officials are not taking any chances, with the winds up to 140 miles per hour, the fresh water flooding and that this is labeled a grade 4 hurricane. We should all be praying for everyone in North and South Carolina and hope that this hurricane passes as soon a possible.
14
One day the sea came in and never went out. Hello World! It's just physics, kids. Seeking the company of fools is he who rejects the friendship of science. Enjoy!
21
@Fox Greenland and Antarctica see precipitation around 1/10 the global average, they are deserts, so it takes many millennia for the ice sheets that we are tearing apart to rebuild from scant snowfall, once atmospheric CO2 levels drop enough, many, many millennia from now.
If we burn just all the currently known fossil fuel reserves we'll melt all of Antarctica's ice, raising sea levels by around 58m. There's a paper on that: "Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet" http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589
It would take some time, but sea levels would rise for the first millennium on average about 3m per century.
10
@Erik Frederiksen
After Trump is done the Republicans will be known as the Republicant's.
1
Never fear Carolinians President Trump and the Republicans will definitely help you out as they are trying to win you over in the mid terms. But probably they will neglect the areas hit hard that are inhabited by the blacks and poor who intend to vote Democratic.?You know
By the way people I intentionally used the word democratic because I recently became aware that the Republicans somehow managed to change the Democratic Party into the Democrat party. Oh really and we allowed that?!! Fight back we are the Democratic Party!
21
The repetitions of this our fascinating study-objects, our human-kinds', most genocidal and selfish mistakes make not only this saying true:
"Humans are unable to be honest with themselves. They can not talk about themselves { nor about Accelerating Climate Change the co-create} without embellishing"~ Akira Kurosawa
But also the colluded sinister conservatives' intentions to publicly totally remain ignorant to Climate change, to falsify and fake-lower reports on Climate change and on Climate change devastation-caused death-numbers as in New Orleans, in Haiti, in Puerto Rico etc. etc. etc, make this Quantum philosophical saying utmost relevant right now:
“When-ever we as a people, as nation /or as governments, or even as as whole Specie only and solely alone point to others’ violent Pasts -, while we are all greedily, blindly opportunistic standing in the self-repeating and amnesic mirror of time -, we are only pointing back at ourselves in this Present. Unknowingly only to us yet.”
Accept yet another my Condolences, for our richest religious oil-men's most deadliest human-denials. Climate change is just about to really get started in getting exponential utmost destructive far worst. And denials is not the solution, nor are nonsensical prayers,nor ever-more genocidal oil-gurgling religious wars solutions to anything.
Best,
A.E.
Projectheureka LLC
6
Check out the NYT's articles about the Trump administration's plans to lower regulatory measures to deal with leaking methane from oil drills and pipelines. 25 times a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.
Check out their plans to make it easier for cars, trucks, and factories to emit more CO2. Along with the plans to allow Big Ag to use pesticides that have been proven beyond a doubt to be harmful to human health.
Pogo was right.
75
There will be so much money made off of this storm. Gasoline, hotels, restaurants, paper towels...
8
@PJR
As Mr. Trump demonstrated by tossing around rolls of paper towels at a press conference in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, those towels can do a fine job cleaning up the mess. Or as Seth Meyer said, "They are not million ply."
19
I evacuated FL last year with my extended family spending maybe $1000 on hotels, meals on the road, and gas. I think Rick Scott is a horrible person, an awful governor, and I pray the state keeps him out of the senate but I believe he was right to recommend evacuation. Our house was destroyed in 1992 by Hurricane Andrew (we were out of town then) - this stuff is nothing to play around with.
Oh yeah, why do we still live here? There must be a good reason.
21
Climate change has been in the bucket for a long time. And the bucket has gotten to deep. Probably to late for us to have any impact. Get use to it, the future will come up with something.
11
Would Trump have used the word incredible to describe the citizens of NY if this hurricane was bearing down on them? I don't think he would even offer them paper towels.
16
@Chris Sure he would at $20 a roll.
13
Seeing that photo of the spiral hurricane from outer space reminds me of when I was a kid whenever wind devils formed on the playground we’d jump in the center of them to break them up. Can’t we do the same as long as we’re up there with maybe a really fat kid? This is no time for kidding around though.
8
I hope you all will be safe. Be careful.
And a note to our POTUS, you’re not an island in the middle of a sea. Therefore you will receive much faster and better care.
4 k people died in PR!
18
The storm surge from Hurricane Sandy hit a record 13.88 feet (4.23 m) at Battery Park.
The paleoclimate record indicates that warming the planet just 1.5-2 degrees C above preindustrial temperature commits the system to an eventual 6-9m of sea level rise (20-30 feet).
From the Yale economist William Nordhaus (the guy who first came up with the idea in the 70s of a guardrail of 2 degrees C to avoid:
"A target of 2½ °C is technically feasible but would require extreme virtually universal global policy measures."
https://www.scribd.com/document/335688297/Nordhaus-climate-economics
Houston we have a problem, the biggest we've ever faced, and we are sleep-walking into it.
51
Check out the republican stAtements on climate change over the last decade. Especially Limbaugh et al. Oh I forgot, science is fake news. Also the people I want to reach will never read this.
39
I wonder how many South Carolina residence will dismiss the hurricane warnings as fake news.
27
Let's hope the taxpayers of the rest of the country are not called upon to repair the Carolinas like we were called upon to repair Texas from the consequences of the Texan carbon-creating empire. @badger
17
@Badger "A new law in North Carolina will ban the state from basing coastal policies on the latest scientific predictions of how much the sea level will rise"
Rather a shame since ice sheet models in 2016 doubled previous consensus estimates of the sea level rise we could see by 2100.
from 2016
"Incorporating these mechanisms in our ice-sheet model accelerates the expected collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to decadal time scales [3.3 m global sea-level rise], and also causes retreat into major East Antarctic subglacial basins"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X14007961
Not maybe the best case, not the worst case according to Richard Alley.
14
@Will Hogan what a revolting sentiment.
4
Really? Comments on this article but none on the venting of methane piece, or on the UN sec generals statements on climate change?
What exactly is the point of commenting on a weather story?
11
@RjW It is not just a weather story. By warming the ocean and raising sea level we are loading the dice for more destructive storms, so it is also a climate story.
23
@RjW a “weather story”? It’s a swiftyly approaching and likely devastating natural disaster.
10
@Erik Frederiksen
Apologies. My point was thAt a neighboring climate story on methane venting by the Trump administration didn’t take comments. The venting and leaking of methane is serious cause of the warming that amplified hurricanes.
4
'President Trump' says it is 'very bad'
He really is one for descriptive words.
Good luck, if you're poor and/or colored, you'll be on your own.
21
I see Trump is mobilizing methane to make sure there are worse storms as the ocean heats up. An ocean only a degree or two hotter ocean will supercharge a hurricane. Even though you voted for Trump, I feel sorry for you Carolinans. I hope what 95% of the climate scientists say about global warming is not true.
21
@Will Hogan “We” are not a monolith and plenty of us didn’t vote for that disgusting man.
23
I’d bet the farm that the Carolinas will receive more response and aid than Puerto Rico.
38
@Kari Certainly and that is a horrible thing. PR deserves the same protection and aid as anywhere else in our nation.
15
Stronger storms, accelerating sea level rise, more dangerous wildfire behavior, increasingly severe droughts.
If we don't change our ways, by the time our students are old large swaths of the planet will experience average summers hotter than anything yet experienced, with 90 percent confidence.
We are talking about taking the average out of experience in a world where crops are already stressed by heat.
24
What an unbelievable photo from space. It really shows the power of the hurricane and its full potential to do devastating harm.
33
May God protect the people in the path of Hurricane Florence and guide the US government to a rapid and effective response. We surely hope and pray that they do not suffer the same fate we did in Puerto Rico with Hurricane Maria. No one should go through what we did.
41
@Carmen
No, They should not have gone through what your island did, and is still going through. Let me apologize to my fellow Americans who live in Puerto Rico for the inexcusable response from OUR government to it's citizens on American's territory of Puerto Rico.
47
@Carmen God created this hurricane and sent it specifically to the Carolinas. Now you are asking him to protect the people of Carolina? This is confusing.
14
@Will Hogan We are dealing with forces of Nature. God is not a "him" and does not send destruction to any certain group of people. However, it is possible for individuals to attune to a level of consciousness above the human mind and receive guidance on how to avert tragedy. This is what prayer can do. It is even possible for the track of a storm to be changed, but this would require a large number of people concentrating their minds on that, without fear. Unfortunately, at the present time in our culture there is not sufficient belief in the power of group intention for this to take place. We do not understand the power of thought. l pray for the people of the Carolinas and the East coast, that Divine Wisdom move through them and show them the way to preserve their lives. May they cooperate with this knowledge, and afterwards, may all losses be restored.
Really folks, this story is about a hurricane and the need for those impacted to evacuate as quickly as possible.
As much as we may not approve of Trump, constantly attacking him when there is no significant connection to the topic at issue just makes us appear irrationally obsessed.
Our prayers are with the residents in the Carolinas, please error on the side of caution and evacuate when requested to do so.
6
@Sophisticated Liberal While it is true we crossed 400ppm atmospheric CO2 while Trump was still just a real estate shyster, he is making our response to global warming even more pitiful.
25
@Sophisticated Liberal
Same exact NYT front page talks about relaxing controls on methane release, and methane is 30 times more potent as a greenhouse gas. And the Carolinas voted for Trump. Sorry, hard to separate these issues.
38
To anyone who has a problem w comments that focus on Trump: As someone who has been through many hurricanes (recently, Cat 5 Maria: 3 months with no power or running water, surrounded by devastation), I'd like to say the focus on Trump is warranted.
Climate scientists predicted these weather patterns & events that we are seeing across our country- long ago. It's not about Trump's ignorant, dishonest and bullying personality, it's about real-life actions- policies- that not only don't address extreme weather events, but will make them worse.
When a Category 5 is coming your way, you know that you might die. We're on an island, so there's no escaping. No driving inland or getting on a plane. There's not a person on this island, who was 100% sure they'd be uninjured or alive the next day. Have a car, roof, bed, drinking water, power, anything...
You're darn right, we NEED a president and government that is taking climate changes seriously! It's a terrible fact, that it won't be long before the planet is an island that will not be able to escape these calamities.
Vote for SANITY in November.
198
If it is hurricane season along the coastal areas, what is it about people not having emergency kits, water, batteries and flashlights already? It's so strange not to be prepared in any way or form. Like a run on snow shovel sales after a snowstorm in New England. As if snow is unexpected?
What's up with so many being so unprepped?
EVERYONE should already have at least one flashlight (candles?) or battery operated radio in their possession. And at least a couple bottles of water stored in their home.
It's not like a surprise weather event waiting to happen. Cans of beans and soup would be advisable to have on hand too.
If you can't even be self sufficient for a couple of days time think about a really big unexpected disaster. Depending upon the government is not a very prudent idea.
7
@james. That's all great until you have to evacuate.
5
@james Thanks dad....with no running water or power for days your advice is great! Especially when they are told to get out fast.
4
@james this is all well and good if you have unlimited Money, storage space, time, transportation. Congrats if you do.
4
We South Carolinians need to stop voting for anyone that doesn't believe in climate change and do all they can to stop it. Wise up y'all! So we can stop having to hunker down!
92
To those finding fault with comments showing a lack of sympathy about the way the states in the storm path voted and how their elected representatives have "outlawed" sea level rise and climate change: Please remember how Trump and his band of kleptocrats have done everything they can to disadvantage states that base environmental policies on valid science through a punitive tax policy, dismantling of the health care system, adopting an energy policy straight out of the 19th century, etc. Progressive states already pay more than their share to the red welfare states. Unless these federal funds have been squandered on something like subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, resources should be more than adequate for storm preparation and recovery. It is not callousness, but reality, behind all the logic-based comments from progressives.
65
@backfull Stop excusing your selfish and cruel nature, it makes you look like a Republican. The majority of folks in this state did NOT vote for trump. The majority of VOTERS did not vote for trump. People could die this week. Get a grip.
7
@Leslie E And yet each member of the South Carolina Congressional Delegation has been re-elected twice since they told New Yorkers where we could shove it after Hurricane Sandy. The voters in SC clearly supported that, if they keep re-electing these people. So, no, I do not have any particular sympathy for them. I'll offer them the same advice they offered my state when roles were reversed: pull yourself up by your bootstraps.
We are experiencing a drought unlike anything I have seen in my 79 years here in south east Canada. We are usually quite wet with a lot of rain. I wonder if the slowing of the circulation driving weather patterns is affecting our rain patterns. We have had no real rain for months.
15
Trump will go out of his way to ensure that white, upper-middle-class residents of the Southeast are comforted and given assistance following the devastation that is expected after hurricane Florence slams into the coast. Everyone else will will have to fend for him or herself. MAGA ponchos and hats will, however, be on sale at the local Republican precinct headquarters. Expect a disaster to follow the disaster, sponsored by the geniuses who were so responsive to the calamity in Puerto Rico in 2017. The misery never ends with Trump and Company.
28
really? The poverty in South Carolina dwarfs that of every state in the Northeast. We are also one of the most heavily populated African American states. Not so white and rich. Struggling to get through this monstrous storm.
12
@H. Clark -- yep, he sure will! They already got two tweets. And then he'll show up afterwards and throw out paper towels.
That's "Trump will go out of his way..."
If you look how North Carolina voted, every district along the coast voted for Trump by very solid margins.
10
It would be interesting to find out what people are not buying.
1
@Maxman Just watch the news and note what's left behind.
Anyone in the path of these storms should be required to watch this short amateur video of lethal storm surge from Typhoon Haiyan. https://youtu.be/rS0gv4Xbw7w?t=39s
It is unsurvivable.
Your life may depend on an early departure to get far away from Hurricane Florence which is starting to look really bad.
15
@Erik Frederiksen We’ve been in hurricanes before. We know to leave the coast.
@Leslie E
Some do. I read today on another forum someone reported that many people he knew in the projected potential impact areas staying put because their homes had held up in previous storms.
Good luck to those people.
2
The MIT cyclone expert Dr. Kerry Emanuel wrote that “due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities . . . future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and—taking into account an increasing coastal population—a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty- first century.
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf
And James Hansen warned that the AMOC, part of which is popularly known as the Gulf Stream, is more sensitive to shutdown from meltwater off Greenland's ice sheet than the climate models suggest.
He noted that if it shuts down the increased horizontal temperature gradient between the high and low latitude parts of the N Atlantic would drive superstorms unlike any today and that "all hell would break loose in regions around the N Atlantic.
10
All the stores have been bought out of supplies says my sister from Raleigh. The "just in time" distribution system pioneered in the recent past only works when life is normal and there are no anomalies.
We live in a world where anomalies of all kinds are increasing in number due to increased population density, climate change, complex financial systems, social & political strife and gross economic inequality.
Sure this potentially devastating hurricane will come and go, but lives will be shattered and it will be a symbol of what it will be like to live under such stress when, in the future, the stress is more persistent, repetitive and on going.
To think things only ever get better as the future continues its inexorable approach because technology brings good things to life, is to conflate technological advancement with our overall advancement as a society, a serious error with unimaginable consequences.
Our technology grew our human population to such a degree we mitigate it by engineering density in cities made fragile by virtue they need all their raw materials imported to them. Technology brought us climate change due to the exploitation of natural resources to support this population, it brought us a financial system that gears up the work we do to make it all possible, and it brought us the nuclear bomb to remind us just how arbitrary and futile our society's purpose and vision have become.
We need to ask ourselves just what do we mean by advancement.
32
Thoughtful contribution. Thanks. So much of Progress is Entropy in drag. Leading economic indicators mask the devastation they represent. Somewhere in the Pacific ocean is a island of floating plastic as big as Texas. What have we done wit this singular and irreproducible inheritance? Can we save ourselves from our own ignorance and environmental nihilism?
If I were a betting man...
12
"To the incredible citizens of...." Who talks like that!!?? There is a good word describing such remarks, namely, "gratuitous." A mindless statement like "incredible citizens" is not that much different from Trump's gratuitous insults, i.e., just throwing around words superciliously and condescendingly. Message to sink in: If there is any condescending to do (not a nice trait in any situation), our current "president" is far better material for the receiving end of it.
20
@C.L.S.
Not to mention his "we have began..." gaffe. A total imbecile.
14
Trump stocking up on paper towels
25
@John I'm looking forward to more images of him crowd surfing paper towels to his supporters.
4
If you can afford to flee, then flee now. Don't wait for the traffic jams on Thursday, you can be hundreds of miles away by then.
21
The only way to cultivate consensus on the reality of climate change--and its catastrophic impacts--is to make home and business insurance in coastal areas accurately reflect the actuarial risks of replacing such property. Risk is changing rapidly as weather patterns and intensity reflect the acceleration of warming trends. People are going to have to give up the old "We have not been defeated! We will rebuild!" platitudes and all of the quaint American bravado that such platitudes represent. In the next fifty years, vast areas along the Eastern Seaboard of the U. S. of A. will become uninhabitable. Hundreds of towns and several cities will not survive Nature's onslaught. Insuring foolishness is ensuring foolishness. This country must come out of its tribal idiocy and the absurd politicization of is-ness and acknowledge which way the actual wind is blowing.
41
@Melting -- nobody can afford to keep replacing expensive coastal property that gets destroyed frequently.
The old way the people lived in the caribbean is that they built grass shacks along the beaches. They only lived on the volcanic islands in the caribbean -- the ones with vertical relief. When the hurricanes came, they'd retreat uphill, the grass shack would disappear ... they could build another.
That is a feasible mode of life. Mega-McMansions along barrier islands are not. The only thing that keeps this going is that the public pays to rebuild it, and rebuild it...
NFIP is over 32 B$ in the hole right now, and Florence is guaranteed to make that worse.
We need an end to public subsidy of waterfront properties, and we need an end to public subsidies used to rebuild ... so the public can rebuild again next time.
NFIP needs to be converted to "one and done" ... if the public needs to buy you out ... OK, but the public takes the land and nothing is built on it.
12
Just love all the ignorant remarks from those Liberals who politicize everything. They need to grow up and start acting like human beings that care about everyone and not just their political allies.
4
"They need to grow up and start acting like human beings that care about everyone and not just their political allies" @Bill, Ok. Just as soon as conservatives start caring about immigrants, minorities, gays, atheists, Muslims, liberals, et al. Someone please wake me when that happens.
83
@Bill -- pretty funny. Let me know when Republicans start to care about any except the investor class and downwardly-mobile white males with a chip on their shoulder.
In particular, how about those children: locked up and separated from their parents?
29
Absolutely, Bill! Why, we definitely need to grow up - unlike, say, you, who chose a news article about a monster hurricane threatening 1 million people to bash those you disagree with politically! Yes indeed, nothing says “I’m an adult and I care about people!” quite like that behavior! You’re such a humanitarian, Bill. No one comes close to your thoughtfulness, compassion, and concern for others during a major disaster, certainly not liberals. Why, you didn’t forget what is truly important in modern-day America: dragging people through the mud and kicking them, even when said people have absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand. Good for you, Bill. Showing the world that liberals are wrong and heartless is always the most important course of action in any situation. Thank you for showing us who you truly are and what you truly believe in during these difficult moments for the people of North and South Carolina.
I pray for those in harm's way and pray that we can get a handle on climate change before all of us are in harm's way.
27
Prayers won’t do it - voting will...See NYT article today regarding the Trump admin plans to relax methane gas emissions. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!
2
Ever been to the Outer Banks? The houses are built on 9ft pylons. If I want to dive into a 9ft pool that has no water in it, I wouldn't expect the government to reimburse me
Hope television media, You Tube, etc. doesn't subject us to this disaster theatre.
4
South Carolinians shouldn't worry -- I'm sure that Trump will swoop in at some point and throw rolls of paper towels to people who lost their homes as he did in Puerto Rico. Melania will show up wearing four hundred dollar spike heels as she did for the trip to Houston after it drowned and Lindsay Graham will greet them wearing his usual big smile and telling everyone that Trump is a really, hugely great president.
54
As a Floridian who has survived more than his share of hurricanes, I find the comments here using the hurricane to score political points truly disgusting.
13
@Richard I survived a few too when I lived in FL and frankly I don't feel a lot of sympathy for the people of SC who helped to put a total misfit in the WH. A misfit who ignored the fact that Puerto Rico was virtually destroyed last year and thousands of Americans lost their lives because the government of the US didn't care to get on the stick and help those people who are citizens just as we are citizens.
26
@Richard
Yes, it's not really very nice, kind, or caring to stick it to folks who are getting whacked by a natural event. However, many of those of us who haven't replaced objective facts and the scientific method with the belief in the magical powers of the gold-leaf nincompoop currently defiling the White House, have gotten mighty tired of folks who vote against facts and reason and then, when reality bites, want our largess to make them whole.
64
@Richard, did you feel that same disgust around this time last year when Puerto Ricans and U.S. Virgin Islanders were needlessly dying? And those folks in New Orleans were drowning after Katrina back in 2005? Were you publicly criticizing Trump, Bush, Limbaugh and a gazillion other Republicans using them to score cheap political points? If I am wrong, please point me to where you were bemoaning how the conservatives were ignoring the suffering in those U.S. territories.
What was the federal government doing for the people of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, etc.? Ah, but they mostly weren't white, evangelical GOP voters, unlike many of those in the Carolinas. Don't worry, once the storm blows over - as it eventually will, Trump will be there for them, and I bet he'll do a lot more than throw a few rolls of paper towels to the crowd.
29
Hurricane Florence will likely be the next domestic crisis confronting the Trump administration. I hope and pray for the well being of those in the hurricane's path; not just from the storm itself but from the Trump administration, mired in chaos, incompetence and inexperience. This is just what Carolinians and Virginians do not need with this impending disaster.
19
Trump is on top of things. That’s real assuring!
18
@Pb of DC -- what could possibly go wrong, eh?
And Mexico is going to pay for it, right?
9
How tone deaf and deliberately ignorant do you have to be to see a hurricane strengthen at a nearly unprecedented rate (a predicted and known issue from global warming), and announce that you're allowing even more pollution! Yay!
Sad.
Ignorant.
Callous.
Willfully, consciously oblivious.
Myopic, self obsessed, childishness.
Yeah, so much worse than Trump's favorite 'Sad'.
105
Where do a million people go if they have to evacuate?
12
@Flo Those of us who live in Atlantic coastal areas usually go about 150 - 200 miles inland toward GA, TN, etc - There are many wonderful people who offer hospitality along the way to people who can't find housing - in fact just today, I saw a social media post from someone who owns an RV campground offering free space (with utilities!) on a first-come, first-serve basis. Evacuations are not fun, but they're definitely made better by the many acts of kindness and hospitality we encounter along the way!
30
@Flo I don't know because right after checking to see if my county is supposed to evacuate, I looked to see what shelters are open. And, guess what, there weren't any. Maybe they'll be opening up after noon tomorrow. I hope.
7
@FloI offered my Atlanta home to my friends there.
6
hey donald - bring lots of paper towels to toss to carolinians - sent from my second home on culebra island, puerto rico, usa
29
I think North Carolina should be safe -- after all, they outlawed sea-level rise, and I'm sure the brilliant legislators who wrote the law included a section on sea-level rise caused by storm surge. Problem solved!
Now, South Carolina needs to get cracking. Their legislature has only a few days to act. Perhaps they could meet in an emergency session to protect their citizens the way North Carolina has -- surely a similar law could be fast-tracked? Boom! Problem solved!
72
For those of you who think this is simply a coastal storm, this powerful event is going to affect more than just coastal areas. The storm is predicted to get stuck along the latitude it lands and torrential rain bringing flood conditions will move westward, affecting western Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee as well as much of the western Carolinas. This is no joke. Maybe the politicians in these red states will wake up that climate change is affecting them also.
106
We made it more or less through Hurricane Harvey last year. WITHOUT Trump's real help, may I add. Of course, Texas did much better than Puerto Rico.
I hope the Carolinas get help this time...Trump likes white people, so the probabilities go up.
We will see if prejudice can overcome ineptitude.
OH!! Let's not forget---Everyone to vote on Nov. 6th!!
26
Don't worry- Republicans assure us it is all a hoax.
71
This is nothing new, folks. Hurricanes hit the Carolinas every fall. Many are huge, powerful storms with anomalous behaviour.
Of course it makes no sense to build on the beach in the Carolinas.
Except that the Carolina lowlands and barrier islands are world-class beautiful and amazing. Who can resist the opportunity if they have it?
I'm just glad to read that people are following evacuation orders. Stay safe.
4
@Laura Duhan Kaplan Are you from here? I am. Yes we get storms. This storm is going to be huge. It is irregular. The most recent comparable storm here (in raleigh - not “at the beach”) in my lifetime was Fran. 22 years ago. Flo is already stronger.
5
To those who say people should move away from coastal areas because you're tired of paying for rebuilding:
Do you same the same for Tornado Alley? Earthquake-prone California? The fire- and drought-prone West? Flood-prone mid-Atlantic and Southern states?
Because most coastal residents don't live on oceanfront property. That's for the wealthy, who can afford the million-dollar homes and the insurance that goes with it.
That said, I'd like to see the states that don't enact climate-based mitigation or adaptation laws have to work a little harder for their FEMA dollars. It's one thing to live somewhere where you'll need it at some point; hard to help that. It's quite another to actively legislate ignorance and then demand a payout.
Look at Florida and the red tide currently souring the climate as well as all kinds of businesses, thanks to Scott's refusal to put donors first and foremost at the head of the line - yet he is tied in the polls for Senate.
Go figure.
52
@Valerie -- yep ... I say the same "to Tornado Alley? Earthquake-prone California? The fire- and drought-prone West?"
None of that is covered by NFIP. NFIP is bleeding ordinary Americans all over the country to pay repeated flooding claims, most of which are along the Atlantic and Caribbean Coasts ...admittedly including "flood-prone mid-Atlantic and Southern states." NFIP borrowed $36 billion from the U.S. Treasury, including $16 billion forgiven last year.
The politicians in Washington just extended NFIP to Nov 30, just in time to pay the billions of dollars that Florence is sure to cause now.
7
@Lee Harrison Cool, you realize many of the ppl who stand to be deccimated by this storm dont live at the beach or in a place where this is normal right?
1
@Leslie E -- yes I do. I live between upstate new York and Kew Gardens NYC.
Floyd put 6" of water in my basement upstate.
Irene pummeled Vermont badly, also destroyed many homes in the Schoharie valley near me upstate. Mine survived fine.
Sandy brutally wiped out low-lying development along the NYC, damaged the city's infrastructure so badly it hasn't finished coping, also hit the New Jersey waterfront ... and it was not even a hurricane when it came ashore.
Kew Gardens is high ... it came through fine.
I personally didn't get a penny of public support, and the plain truth is that all the stuff that was really wiped out ... Vermont, the Schoharie, the NYC and New Jersey waterfront ... was just nature telling people what they don't want to hear: don't build here.
I pumped out my basement upstate, and my house is OK ... hasn't happened again since Floyd.
I'm sorry if people get wiped out. I'm wiling to help them, but I'm not willing to help them rebuild where the storm has just proved to you: stupid to rebuild there.
The oceans are rising and hurricanes will get stronger.
1
Yeah, no more funding rebuilding in areas that are destroyed frequently - low lying hurricane zones, flood plains, etc. No, that doesn't apply to earthquakes and such - it's hundreds of years between earthquakes large enough to do much damage, the same house doesn't get blown out by a tornado or flattened in an earthquake or burned down in a forest fire once a decade or more, like these places near sea level in a hurricane area.
19
@DetailsNo more assistance for Trump Casinos, Hotels, and Resorts!!
11
@Details Are you not aware that much of the area that stands to suffer here hasn’t seen a comparable event in 20 years?
2
@Leslie E -- 20 years is nothing. Most people get 30 year mortgages today.
You really think you could afford to rebuild every 20 years ... on your own?
I sure cannot.
1
This is shaping up to be an event requiring a focused, diligent and sustained effort by all parties involved. This is when you have to lay aside any animosities you may feel. The Southeast Coast becomes the primary concern.Why does it take a hurricane to make us think about working for the common good?
7
The one thing left in this country that is bipartisan is Mother Nature. Simple fact, she wants to kill us all and always bats last. Place I’m at 80 miles inshore resembles ants preparing for the herd of buffalos they feel coming. If people could accept we are part of a fine planet and not masters we might could survive. The best prediction I’ve read yet shows the Sun will rise Saturday morning. For those who live near shore, this is an opportunity to rethink the wisdom of such. For those near inland this is a time to be awed and amazed that we are alive and get to bear witness to what comes. To all, Be Safe.
31
We've been overdue for a hurricane of this magnitude, and I hope people living closer to the coast take it seriously. Finding bottled water even further inland is almost impossible at this point, and I think there will be great need in the weeks to come from those who underestimated this storm. For those who live elsewhere sending well wishes, thanks. Please keep us in your thoughts afterward too. For those in NC and neighboring states about to endure this storm, here's hoping that people take sufficient steps to stay as safe as they can, and help their fellow neighbors and citizens when and where they can.
13
Three potential hurricanes are now lined up in the Atlantic that could strike a deadly blow to the U.S. This is only the beginning. It is a time for a survey of Republican Governors in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida to answer the following questions:
1. Do you believe in climate change ?
2. What are you doing about it ?
3. Do you understand that international cooperation (i.e. Paris Agreement) is the only way to effectively combat climate change.
4. Do you care that your children and grandchildren will inherit the money you earned from the fossil fuel industry that bankrolled your campaign as well as an unliveable planet ?
123
Agreed. NC's Governor is a proud Democrat.
7
@Paul Robillard
The governor of North Carolina is a Democrat.
7
@Paul Robillard
NC now has a Democratic governor. It's the legislature that is dominated by Republicans.
6
Can we talk about climate change now?
54
@Patrick Yes. I really do agree with your comment. I get so angry with people who say that now is not the time to talk about the climate because it politicizes people’s suffering.
27
@Patrick If Trump could be convinced that Obama or Mexicans (or maybe Obama working with Mexicans) created climate change, we'd be back in the Paris Accord this evening.
11
@Patrick -- Nah -- too soon!
1
I sure hope that Deep State commie FEMA doesn't have to be involved. Perhaps the water will erase the gerrymandered district borders.
21
Last summer, I cut my Galveston vacation short as the storm approached and was named Harvey. A few days later, the Texas governor said evacuate while Houston's mayor said stay put. Really? Better to track the hurricane on your own and make your own decisions to evacuate or stay. The situation becomes chaotic when everyone evacuates at once. Any who, be safe everyone in the Carolinas.
2
Don't worry, Carolinas.
Trump is prepared.
He's already ordered a new supply of paper towels
58
And he is rolling back methane regs!
44
To those here who rush in to say "prohibit development/rebuilding on the coasts": Deal. IF you also prohibit any development or rebuilding where there is significant risk of: earthquakes, tornadoes, forest fires, flash floods, landslides, sinkholes. . . Not sure how we will cram all 325 million of us into what's left.
5
@Publius -- those other things aren't covered by NFIP, and their risks aren't subsidized like coastal flooding is.
6
I just got an alert that this republican administration wants to roll back even further EPA regulations to allow businesses and the like to release more methane gas (the main culprit of climate change) into the atmosphere.
The winds, upheaval and destruction are going to only get more pronounced and frequent. There is not any one thing that people on the ground (especially along the coastline) can do. It is not even a national problem. It is now a global one.
No longer can one country be an island (even if it is a plastic one in the middle of the ocean). It is going to require all countries (especially the polluting ones - which the U.S. is one) working diligently NOW to roll back the causes of climate change.
We certainly could start by eating far less meat.
( a major cause of methane gasses)
51
@FunkyIrishman So are broccoli and beans.
5
@FunkyIrishman It is beginning to look like the only solution for the world to climate change is a few well placed NEMPs over the US.
Trump had any real concern for the people in the path of the hurricane, he would echo the governors who are calling for the people to evacuate. Anything else is no different than tossing rolls of paper towels at people.
10
I wonder how many of those being asked to evacuate today are aware of and believe in global warming which is making these kinds of storms stronger and carry more water because of the rising temperature of the air and water.
Do they enjoy the additional drama in their lives? Because the decision this afternoon to allow the gas companies to allow even more methane into the air should speed up this heating process and give Carolina residents ever more opportunities to evacuate and to rebuild. Is this a long term plan to grow the economy? You know — by creating the need?
34
I just got an alert that this republican administration wants to roll back even further EPA regulations to allow businesses and the like to release more methane gas (the main culprit of climate change) into the atmosphere.
The winds, upheaval and destruction are going to only get more pronounced and frequent. There is not any one thing that people on the ground (especially along the coastline) can do. It is not even a national problem. It is now a global one.
No longer can one country be an island (even if it is a plastic one in the middle of the ocean). It is going to require all countries (especially the polluting ones - which the U.S. is one) working diligently NOW to roll back the causes of climate change.
We certainly could start by eating far less meat.
( a major cause of methane gasses)
7
Not to be insensitive, but it seems like climate change and the resulting hurricanes, flooding, fires, landslides, etc. is inadvertently fueling the economy as consumers and institutions need to replace damaged or lost properties. Just look at the empty shelves at Home Depot and at the grocery stores, as well as the lines at gas stations.
People are stocking up before a impending disaster and thereafter buys more stuff to replace and replenish lost/damages assets which results in the increased velocity of the dollar. Is the the Trump plan to keep the economy humming? Sooner or later, nature always wins.
3
Has Trump been stocking up on paper towels to throw to the people of the Carolinas? And maybe working on some thoughts and prayers?
10
38° 53' N / 77° 2' W (I’ve made it easy for you Florence) but only here...
11
Meanwhile, "Trump Administration Wants to Make It Easier to Release Methane Into Air" (Times headline today). Donald Trump says he wishes well the people in the path of the storm, but he obviously wishes them ill, since his administration is promoting policies that will accelerate climate change and bring greater death and destruction to those who live on the east coast. The proposed regulations saves oil and gas industry $500 billion. And that savings comes from us taxpayers in the form of worse health and the costs of escaping and rebuilding after climate-change-hurricanes.
240
@James Dont believe everything you read.The restrictions were preventing gas pipeline infrastructure getting built so the gas could be captured and sold.when the Bakken in ND first developed wells there was no infrastructure for gas capturing.This was costing the oil companies millions and they have been rushing to contain the flare offs and pipeline it to market.Thats why you don't have the problem in Texas and in the Marcellus in Pa. because the infrastructure is in place for frack gas.
2
@James Actually, the article says it will save the energy companies a paltry $484 million by 2025. A very small sum compared to the damage these increased methane releases will do.
1
And so the massive transfer of wealth continues, upwards, always upwards -- in spite of what they claim.
1
I assume most of the people in harm's way are Trump supporters ?
and that many of them have houses that have been rebuilt, with gov't aid, *more then once* ?
and that we liberal taxpayers are paying for this, cause blue states send more to DC then they get back ?
am i the only one seeing an issue here ?
189
@ezra abrams
While it's true that there will likely be a better federal response now than for disasters in blue states, there are lives at stake here. While some of them are Trump supporters, others are not, and regardless, all these people are going to need help. I wouldn't want to begrudge them that help just because of their political affiliation, any more than I would want help withheld for victims of wildfires in California.
8
@ezra abrams
No, you are not the only one.
Here we go again.
7
So red states deserve disaster then? That's like saying Everyone who thought Saddam was better than the U.S ruining Iraq, deserves what Iraq is now.
3
Well, the Trump administration just rolled out another EPA policy shift meant to gut methane leak inspection and containment on wells. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Fun fact: warmer global weather makes hurricanes worse: much worse. Cause...meet effect.
141
Traffic along I-95 in the Carolinas is always a zoo. Now throw in another 1 Million folks escaping Hurricane Florence and we have a guaranteed disaster.
20
The climate change cycle continues: at least one million people will now drive their gas-guzzling SUVs who-knows-how-many miles to get out of the path of yet another gigantic storm, contributing to more climate change which causes more storms and increased intensity of storms. Then we will "rebuild," being "resilient," increasing the carbon footprint of the response even more, and wait for the next storm that will do even more damage. We have to break out of this cycle and aggressively un-develop, conserve energy, reduce driving, reduce fossil fuel use. Government including the anti-environemental S. Car. Governor McMaster, must lead the way.
34
I hate as well, the, “We will rebuild in the face of adversity”, mantra. Un-develop is a great concept!
21
@James
Un-developing is ridiculously unrealistic. You expect millions of people to just up and abandon their homes and livelihood?
3
@R ultimately we will have to
So when the 10,000 square foot mega mansions that have popped up all along the barrier islands in the last 20-25 years get washed into the sea, I am not going to be asked to contribute my tax dollars to re build them right?
307
@Stuart M: We have plenty of those along the Connecticut coast. Homeowner insurance deductibles for hurricanes are 5%+ in some of those areas.
2
Florence is a real strange bird. Atlantic storms don't normally behave like this one. She should have veered off north towards the higher mid-Atlantic. Maybe glancing the coast or landing in New England if she hadn't blown out already. Nope. Not this time. Florence has a straight run into somewhere south of DC. You almost wonder if the all-mighty powers were aiming a little bit north but missed. Olympian prowess is not a perfect science after all.
The coasts are obviously going to get hit hard but the inland flooding is probably the more serious overall threat. There's nothing to blow Florence out once she's found a nest on land. She's going to stall and sit there until there's no more rain left. The most similar hurricane in my experience was Hurricane Irene.
Irene downgraded to a tropical storm before landfall so the storm didn't get as much coverage. There were no Anderson Cooper moments with Irene. However, the storm sat over Jersey for two long days just dumping water. Two hundred year old trees would come crashing down. Not because the wind blew them over but because the soil was too wet to hold their weight. I have some pictures somewhere if you'd like to see them.
Mind you, Irene was a tropical storm. Florence is a few notches up the ladder. This probably won't end well. Right now, I wouldn't worry about just bottled water and dry goods. I would be thinking about ways to treat water as well. It might be a very long time before the tap is safe to drink again.
76
@Andy perhaps the changing northern polar jet stream, linked to arctic ice decline, has contributing to an unusual track, as it did for Sandy.
4
@Andy-- "It might be a very long time before the tap is safe to drink again."
Unless, of course, the aquifer has already been poisoned by mostly-unregulated fracking. Meh -- who needs clean Water?!
Besides, doesn't Nestle sell it?
2
@Andy If you need an analogue for a major hurricane making landfall, stalling, and dropping feet of rain, you only need to look back 13 months to Hurricane Harvey. The rainfall predictions were eerily similar: a lot of rain to 10-20 inches to 20+ inches forecasted as the storm approached.
Florence is going to make Irene look like a summer afternoon shower. People need to get their act together and prepare for a very serious situation.
1
Bad news: Everyone I've contacted who lives on NC coast is sheltering in place and maybe even sheltering other people too. One person says "this house has been here for 35 years, no hurricane can take it down". Well, until a hurricane does... Humans train their minds to think too linearly for climate change -- they think "the last five storms didn't destroy my home so this one won't either". What is desperately needed is more effective public communication that helps people think about these storms in EXPONENTIAL terms. The hundred year storm surge is now a five hundred year storm surge. Everything is different now.
73
Welcome to the new normal. It would be wise to prohibit rebuilding on the coast.
28
@Paul Jay I'm not fond of the phrase "new normal" because that implies we've reached a new and different but stable climate when the fact is the ride is just beginning and will climate will continue to change for millennia.
When the current 400ppm CO2 was sustained in the past sea levels rose enough to force around 10 percent of the current population to move.
The CO2 we've already put into the air will take 100,000 years to cycle through Earth's systems.
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/24/614105843/asteroid-im...
8
@Paul Jay I live directly on the SC coast and I agree.
2
And the Trump administration, concerned about all the Republicans in the path of the storm, deploys the largest FEMA response in history.
16
Tell that to Puerto Rico
9
@Barry Palevitz
They already know.
2
@Spucky50
Let me tell you how this works: The more reinforcements Trump sends in, the stronger the storm will become to overcome Trump.
You see, God and his right-hand-man, Jesus, have learned to detest "everything Trump" during 2018. Trump's supporters better get their arc building skills up-to-speed in the next 24 hours, because the wrath of God is about to strike. The folks in the Carolinas should not expect the progeny of Noah to save them, since they're all reported to be solid Democrat expatriates now living in Israel.
11
I hope the actual government is ready. Trump likely believes he has more than done his part by tweeting twice.
Then again, the majority of the residents of the Carolinas are white, unlike Puerto Rico.
Wishing the best for those in the zone of danger.
37
@Barking Doggerel
Don't hold your breath, him and his rich buddies stand to make a lot of money off of the damage and rebuilding efforts, just like they have in Floridan, New Orleans, Texas, New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico.
You see, when you are Uber rich, disaster's can be VERY profitable.
29
@Devin Greco
Real Estate, now that's right up Trumpies ally.
One problem with strengthening storms and sea level rise is that the closer sea levels approach the top of a coastal defense the greater the risk of a storm surge breaching the defense and the damage occurs as in New Orleans with Hurricane Katrina.
Another is that we remember what lower Manhattan looked like during the few hours of Sandy's storm surge. Later this century sea levels could rise higher than that and stay there for many thousands of years.
13
@Erik Frederiksen
Over development of the coast and the necessary destruction of the natural mangroves and barriers combined with natural erosion are all exasperating the problems.
9
Exacerbating.
Bar rebuilding. Let nature get its revenge on development.
Make sure to take your pets, people.
16
Share this info! It's incredibly valuable! I've been thru Maria & other Major hurricanes here in the Caribbean. You can avoid lots of false information rumors and unnecessary panic by having this site on your phone
Everyone needs to have National Weather Service app on their phone desktop:
"NWS Mobile Weather"
Enter yr ZIP code. You can look at detailed forecast for your area but what I do is scroll down to "more info" and select "tropical weather". Then you can select from three basins. Select Atlantic (NHC). Then scroll down to "maps and charts". You can select your weather event. (Currently it lists the 3 named hurricanes.) Select "standard view of this page". Tap on a map: the label under it. There are several each providing different info like expected wind probabilities and arrival times or the cone of the eye. By using your two fingers you can expand them. It's updated on a regular hourly schedule. (Think it's every 8 hours.) This is the NOAA site that everybody uses. I've been through a dozen hurricanes including Maria here in the Virgin Islands. (Had no power or running water for 3 months still no cable or phone landlines.)
I can't overemphasize how valuable this is once you familiarize yourself with it.
I pray that you and your loved ones are safe and that your property and home are OK.
38
@kfmy I meant to mention that everyone needs to have a car charging cable for their phone. Maybe even a backup one.
After Maria I got a solar phone charger bu it's quite slow.
1
S. Carolina governor Henry McMaster one year ago:
"Gov. Henry McMaster voiced full support for the Trump administration’s decision to pull out of the landmark Paris climate accord" (as reported in S. Carolina newspaper Post and Courier)
S. Carolina governor McMaster today: “We do not want to risk one South Carolina life in this hurricane”
The governor contradicts himself. By disavowing action on climate change, you are necessarily risking lives in this hurricane. These are directly related. We must hold politicians to account for condemning us to loss of life, enormous property damage, and huge disruption in the form of evacuations by ignoring and even promoting climate change. We have to slow development, preserver and expand nature preserves and natural barriers, and permit these barriers to bear the brunt of these storms. We see in Houston what rampant paving-over of nature does-huge floods from storms because the water has nowhere to go. Republicans must stop ignoring science and facts.
165
@James Republicans will do what ever is most profitable in the short term. Period.
29
I hope that all the people that find themselves in the path of this storm find their way to safety. I'd be a concerned about putting this many people on the road in the face of a massive storm. What I don't see in the article is information about where all those people are supposed to go.
And while this isn't about politics, one must wonder whether Trump's deference has something to do with the number of Trump voters in S.C.
Whatever the case, S.C. we will be hoping, and those of us that have someone to pray to will pray, for you to ride out the storm safely.
5
@Justin Unlikely there will be information on where evacuees should go due to the difficulty forecasting the direction of the storm. I've seen them try to direct evacuees and then the storm's path changes and sometimes their directions endangered people. Besides, it's not the govt's job to put them up wherever they do end up. People who live on the coast are supposed to figure this out for themselves, not wait for someone to tell them what to do.
5
@Justin Thank you! Everyone who lives on the coast for any length of time has an evacuation plan. The people who need direction are the new residents from all over the US who have chosen to live in this beautiful place - Fortunately, we love our new neighbors and are always willing to provide assistance when it's needed. We appreciate your good wishes :)
1
It is just plain dumb to continue to incur enormous direct and indirect costs imposed by enormous storms that climate change makes worse, and not to take serious action to fight climate change and try to mitigate those costs. It is time for Republican lawmakers to recognize what a majority of registered republicans already recognize: humans are causing climate change, and humans must modify their behavior to mitigate the damage. People in this country must take collective action through their governments to fight climate change. That is the purpose of government. Otherwise we make this planet uninhabitable for humans in the very near future. Why squander this wonderful planet?
58
@James
The majority of Repubs might believe climate change is real but they don't care. At all. Otherwise they'd vote their representatives out of office. Which they won't because they simply don't care about the planet as a larger entity than their own tiny tribe.
23
We're dealing with people's lives and well-being here, and folks decide to get super cute and snarky about it. Says a lot about what the snarksters are really worth -- not much.
Here's wishing everyone in the storm's path good fortune and a safe harbor.
21
@John Hemingway
True but here in NYC I remember Fallwell and Robertson blaming the 9/11 attacks on gay and lesbian people. I think we jump to the blame game because we are so used to evangelicals and repubs blaming every bad thing in the world on someone who isn't of their tribe. But we shouldn't be like them, right?
19
Yes. Climate change is a life and death issue. Tell that to the Republicans.
24
Voting to renege on Paris Accord and rolling back environmental regulations is also effecting a much larger population of people.
4
How many millions more have to die before we get serious about climate change and reducing emissions? This country keeps voting for climate change denying fools. Until it wakes up, the deaths and destruction from more mega storms, rain bomb flooding, mega fires and flooding will continue and get worse and worse as time goes on. There is so much that needs to be done, vote for people who understand what is going on. It's not the rapture people!
78
I am very sorry to hear about this. My thoughts and prayers go out to all the victims of this storm, especially as I presume South Carolina will be rejecting any "government welfare" in the form of FEMA assistance.
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@Randall Yes, they only believe in welfare for corporations. God forbid the government help a human being out on somebody else's dime.
16
@Randall, do you know how many good and innocent people are in the path of the storm? Many. Have some decency, if you can.
1
@Randall. Governor McMaster will denounce federal aid and welfare queens even as he cashes billions of FEMA assistance checks.
The Republicans will self-righteously proclaim this isn't the time for politics just like they do whenever there's a gun massacre. The Blue States exist to make money that can be sent to Trump's people.
Flood coverage is usually not part of standard homeowner or renter's insurance policies, which usually cover wind and rain damage from hurricanes, but NOT damage from hurricane floodwaters. The federal National Flood Insurance Program has information about how to obtain it. With the crazy way things are going with the weather, it's probably worth looking into.
I've always wondered why there isn't a system to provide/build safe short-term but durable housing when these disasters occur, as they seem to more and more often. Maybe our real estate tycoon President and his cohort should put their thoughts to this problem.
3
Prevent any future private development anywhere near our coasts—I don’t want to pay for anyone else’s lifestyle and/or mistake to live there...
10
My fellow Americans in the Carolinas and surrounding areas:
I hope that the storm does no damage to life or property. I hope that your homes and businesses and loved ones are all perfectly safe and free from harm after Florence passes. I am relieved that she does not appear to be headed for my home state, but I take small comfort seeing that she is headed for yours. We have all had far too many hurricanes in the past two decades.
Please evacuate. Your lives and loved ones are so much more valuable than any kind of property. I wish you the best.
32
Scary. Only last week this thing was closer to Africa than the US, with hardly any chance of making it here. But here it is. Stay safe people of the Carolinas!
12
Best wishes to those in the affected areas, it's fortunate you have this much advance notice to prepare and get to a place of relative safety.
I'll never complain again about the choking smoke from distant wildfires that's the new normal in our area each summer.
7
How about handing Trump an umbrella and have him direct traffic on 501! Knowing him and his "intelligence" he would re-route the traffic east!
13
"We welcome your on-topic commentary."
And close to half of the first 30 comments are not about a hurricane but about Trump.
Good going, NYT readership. I've been a faithful reader for 45 years. Not much longer, I suspect.
And let me pre-empt all you swift wits; no, I won't let the door hit me on the way out. Thanks anyway.
15
I have family in Puerto Rico. With 2,975 deaths and a self proclaimed rating of '10', I reserve the right to respond in kind.
4
@joe
Perhaps the cynicism of these readers is related to how Trump treated the suffering inhabitants of Puerto Rico. Or how the likes of Pruitt and Wheeler prefer to look out for their own interests rather than examine and act on the very real threats of climate change.
Whatever. Good-bye, and good luck.
13
@joe
Trump caused this response by failing the people of Puerto Rico.
13
Wait, isn’t this a Chinese hoax and fake news? Why are they evacuating? Are we going to be asked to pay for yet more hurricane damage to a climate change denying state? Can we pay with fake money?
102
@Doug K
Mexico will pay for it, remember ?
8
@Doug K, states don't deny climate change. The Californians, for example, who have moved here lately don't deny it. The 43% of Oklahomans who are democratic don't deny it. Get over the laziness afflicting your mind, and grasp that every state has a wide variety of people in it, including many you could care about if you knew them, and even love. Not aliens to you, but human beings very similar, in many cases. They don't deserve your malice.
1
And where was this advance mobilization and Trump's eagerness to help when Puerto Rico was about to get hit by Cat 5 hurricane Maria last year??
122
People in Puerto Rico are “colored” And don’t get To vote although I am hoping and praying that the hundreds of thousands that fled to Florida have secured their voting rights!
5
Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy didn’t wake us up to the dangers of stronger storms riding in on higher sea levels.
If we wait for a category 6 storm to hit a heavily populated area on top of a meter of global mean sea level rise it will be a bit late.
10
@Erik Frederiksen Not to be a nitpicker Erick but , there is no such thing as a category 6 storm.
When Trump ignores your plight, orders FEMA to downplay the casualties, and tosses out paper towels to you I hope you all remember that he is your fault.
151
@Max Deitenbeck The areas to be affected are a pretty big tent and there are many, many of us who never voted for Trump and are working diligently to try and mitigate the disaster he is. It's rather ridiculous (not to mention harsh) to blame the States of NC and SC for Trump.
34
@Alice S
Ignore the trolls. I hope you, your family, and any pets you may have stay safe. Us Sandy survivors are thinking of you. At least your governors had the good sense to order everyone to get out of harm's way, as both Andrew Cuomo and Chris Christie did. Common sense does not belong to a political party.
1
@Max Deitenbeck
Naw, he'll probably blame it on Obama
(or the people of Montana)
6
Too many people don't believe in science unless it's happening in real time. Evolution nope. Global warming hoax. There's a hurricane a thousand miles away and it's heading right towards you. I'm outta hear.
9
With my background in the Biological Sciences I received in 1979, and a belief in God I might add, I’m appalled, and that’s putting it mildly, at the suspicion many people have today of basic Science and its benefits—it can’t fix everything, but it does help one to think critically—it’s not just the powers that be today—this downward spiral has been going on for decades—but they’re makinging it more pervasive than ever....
22
Let's hope everyone evacuates.
Stay Safe.
6
What's with the "incredible"?
Trump tweets, "To the incredible citizens of North Carolina, South Carolina and the entire East Coast..."
Can't this guy compose even a short tweet that makes sense? Why are the citizens "incredible"? Or is he just sending a message only to the incredible ones, whomever they are? And whatever that means? Or is he saying that all the citizens of the entire east coast are incredible? Are these the same "elitist" east coasters he frequently denigrates?
And does this mean that he doesn't care about those who might not be citizens and wish them to be safe? Besides illegal immigrants, there are lots of tourists visiting the east coast from all over. Yes, I'm being picky, but he is the President of the United States, and ought to think a bit more about what he tweets or utters.
Let's send our thoughts and hopes for everyone--citizen or non citizen--hat they stay safe.
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@Ms D
I think he meant to say “inedible.”
16
The Repubs are Tryingto get the Carolinas to vote for them in the midterms that’s why.
1
@Ms D
Don't pay any attention to him. Pay attention to the people.
1
Never fear, Carolinians. Your president will order Air Force One to fly at a lower altitude over your states as he flies to Mar-A-Lago next weekend. And don't worry about stocking up on paper towels. They may be dropped by his plane as it flies south.
346
If you are lucky they might even be used!
7
So long as someone in the White House remembers to run out to Costco to buy a super pack of paper towels for Trump to toss out, all will be fine.
57
Friends, remember that global climate change isn't real, that man-made pollution isn't causing it, and that the increased incidence of huge weather catastrophes is simply God's punishment for ... oh can we please start listening to scientists and making sane policy decisions? Pretty please? I'd really like my children and their children to have a planet to inhabit.
319
@Five Oaks some years there are a lot of hurricanes making landfall, some years that's not the case at all, like this year. It has always been this way as far back as records go. This is not a really great year to lay down the "increased incidence of huge weather catastrophes" line since, this year, at least so far, there are fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, many fewer.
2
@Maureen Basedow
Hurricane season is nowhere near over yet.
1
@Maureen Basedow
Never once in recorded history has a hurricane that has taken this trajectory not turned and veered back to the ocean. This is the first. Never in recorded history has a cat 5 hurricane hit this part of the east coast. This might be the first. If it remains cat 4, it will be the second. This is a great time to talk about increased incidence of huge weather catastrophes. But yawn and shrug if you wish and as you probably are doing. Cinci doesn't get hurricanes, you're safe, so why worry about 'others?' Why care even. Every man for himself, disaster or not, catastrophe of not, persecution or not, the stock market is booming so who cares?
Absolutely terrifiying - but we are ignoring Hurricane Olivia that is of equal or greater strength that is going to hit Hawaii in two days - sooner than Florence. Both are tragic and likely to cause much damage and loss of life.
My thoughts are for all of the people in Hawaii AND in the south eastern coastal states.
40
@TWade
No, Olivia is supposed to be tropical storm when it hits Hawaii. Florence is projected to make landfall as a category 4 hurricane and still be a category 1 hurricane 50 miles inland.
7
@TWade thanks so much for your concern. Olivia has been downgraded to a TS this afternoon. We hope it stays that way. It is looking to track between the Big Island and Maui, most likely with Maui taking the brunt of the action. The main problem is that after 48" of rain from Lane a couple of weeks ago, the ground is so saturated, any rain is just going to cause more flooding.
3
@TWade Sure, but Olivia is now "just" a tropical storm. Florence is a cat 4-5 hurricane. So not really the same thing.
Good news: These coastal areas in NC and SC actually voted for Trump, so his administration will be inclined to provide more assistance than paper towels after the storm.
177
@Joe B.
Cute, but a lot of us did not vote for Trump. We voted for HRC, so you can hold the snark.
19
@Joe B.
I wouldn't count on that
3
@Joe B.Charming. If you look on the recent NYT map of district-by-district voting patterns, you'll notice that much of North Carolina is not Trump country. Appreciate your concern, Joe.
11
FEMA needs to stop spending taxpayer money restoring oceanfront properties (large and small; new and old) each time these storms wipe them out. People need to learn that climate change is making some coastlines too dangerous and prone to severe flooding to live on, even if the views are beautiful. Their properties are eroding and being destroyed and it is not up to US taxpayers to repeatedly make them whole. If homeowners had to take full responsibility at market rates to insure these properties, who would care? But the federally-sponsored insurance subsidies should end.
Hope everyone stays safe and evacuates as ordered.
468
NPR just ran a story about a Carolina island that has flooded 3 times in 4 years. People rebuild every time. It has to stop
237
@lb
Then we have the cheats. Donald Trump got a huge insurance settlement for hurricane damage to his home in Florida after Wilma in 2005, but his staff, including his live-in butler, couldn't remember anything other than minor damage to the grounds.
"The $17 million Mar-a-Lago insurance payment surfaced during a 2007 deposition in Trump’s unsuccessful libel lawsuit against journalist Tim O’Brien, whom Trump accused of underestimating his wealth. As part of the case, O’Brien’s attorneys were permitted to review Trump’s financial records, including some from the Mar-a-Lago Club. They asked Trump to quantify the damage and explain why he had pocketed money instead of spending it on repairs."
— from the AP
46
@lb
Federal subsidies ARE ending.
We pay $4000/yr insurance for a cruddy little 50's house situated in an inland city.
Get informed.
3
This one is growing crazy fast, growing to cat 4 that fast from cat 2 is nearly unprecedented. I hope everyone is evacuating.
That's a whole lot of heat energy building that storm up quickly.
18
@Details According to the tracker, it was category 4, dipped to category 2, and then resumed category 4 after. I don't know if that's unusual or not, but it might have something to do with how it basically skipped over category 3.
3
@Jake Jortles
It hit the gulf stream and wind shear which stopped the momentum. After passing through the wind shear it built back up. At present nothing is stopping from building more except landfall.
Trump takes hurricanes seriously when they threaten his voters. For anybody else, he will toss them some paper towels.
209
Let's hope our caring president can throw his base a roll of paper towels
25
The Donald will be all over this one! Lot's of golf courses could be affected.
105
@BobbyBow. Good one, Bobby. :)))
4
Global warming is moving weather to the north. Storms that used to hit the Caribbean are beginning to threaten the Mid-Atlantic states. These storms make wakeup members of Congress--or drown them.
38
@Kevin Cahill Severe storms have been plowing into NC for decades if not longer. Climate change is real, but so is hurricane history.
26
For example, Hurricane Hazel, a Cat 4 storm that hit NC in 1954. https://www.ourstate.com/hazel/
@Gordon You are right about this, I'm sure. However, climate change will both influensa path, strengthen and increase frequency of hurricanes. So we need to so several things - prepare for them when they come, help victims AND reduce emissions. Mr Trump needs to understand this too
Best wishes to the people of South Carolina as they face this storm, especially the inimitable Walter Rhett. Hope you all stay safe.
38
Reddit's TropicalWeather subreddit is a great resource for keeping ontop of this and other devleoping storms.
https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/9c1od5/florence_06l_no...
5
You know Don is muttering about whoever this "Florence" bimbo is stealing the spotlight.
Meanwhile, best wishes to our brothers and sisters as they face this.
119
If you're in a southern state, can you consider that the increasing onslaught of heavy storms might be due to climate change?
Denial is a rough adversary, but I invite you to join those who wish to solve it, or at least mitigate its effects.
162
@Frank Scully There are plenty of us here in the southern states who are aware of and actively fighting climate change.
170
@Michael Not your elected officials, though.
2
@Frank Scully. This inland Massachusetts old guy remembers the olden days when half the towns mentioned above Kitty Hawk didn't exist. Then summer beach area residents lived in simple concrete block flat topped dwellings. The wise owners built high on the dunes above any potential ocean mayhem. Our kids left home here to grow up for 15 summers in one. 40 years ago a 'cottage' cost us $75 week to rent. If this storm actually hits those venerable shores, kindly assess the post-storm survivors among those bizarrely bloated buildings now crowding the often changing shoreline for countless new miles.
OBX has been storm-lucky in recent years. Of course I hope this time it remains unchallenged. Yet now there are many, many, more miles of often immense structures just waiting for this opportunity to prove themselves. Denial? We'll soon learn.
10
Coming this weekend - free paper towels!
421
Made in the USA
3
@Bob M
Remember that "Bounty" is a Koch Bros. brand.
2
@Bob M The best paper towels, the biggest! You've never seen paper towels like these in the history of the world!
Governor McMaster won't admit to human-caused global warming and take steps to reduce CO2 emisions. That would cost GOP donors some money and upset the tribe. Better to just evacuated.
210
@Michael. Evacuate and ask Blue State residents who actually believe in science to pony up the funds to rebuild.
Will residents of Washington D C be threatened and if so, by how much?
14
@gomez -- likely heavy rain but only a few cumulative inches by the time it gets that far north, presuming it makes landfall near Wilmington.