Arrogance will not help the Dems win in 2020. Please come up with a better tactic?
6
Personally, I doubt that Donald j Trump will ever give up. His lust to at least appear as a strong dictator alone with his need for grandiose power, and social worshipping of Emporper-ish adulation.
Yet this lackey of Putin is wearing a economical collar that is not only around his neck, Vladimir can tighten this at will.
Electing a fraud of a human has dire results.
25
This is simple.
A nasty, low quality human, who dishonors our American creed and the sacrafices and legacy of our founders and all who have fought for and cherished our American freedoms for our 242 years, somehow, through unprecedented means (outside criminal help), got to the presidency.
A man who ran a criminally fraudulent university and paid a $25 million dollar settlement to thousands he swindled.
A man so immoral, he actually cheated on his wife just months after she bore him a son.
Is that low or what?
Imagine your son in-law doing that to your daughter. Still like him?
Now, with his usual twisted take on reality, he blames the press for HIS OWN WORDS!
"Enemy of the people" came from his un-American mouth.
If Jefferson, Washington, Madison, Hamilton, Adams and the men and women who struggled and suffered and died in the cause of birthing this nation and laying its glorious foundations like freedom of the press could come back and confront one Mr. Donald Trump…
They'd put him in the stockade so passers-by could get a close look at what a traitor to the American way looks like.
Press freedom, (pushing back on "Trump Truth") is the strong cornerstone of our nation. It is America.
If he or any of you who have turned your back on the very fiber of this nation can't handle it, then, as conservatives would shout at Vietnam War protesters:
"Move to Russia!"
Vladimir SuperTrump is waiting there to take care of you.
You won't be missed.
52
I have many friends who somehow got so caught up in Bernie-mania they became incensed when he lost. They, lifelong liberal Dems, did not have a clue how the primary system worked, if you can believe. They told me numerous times Hillary "stole" the nomination which, they added, was "rigged" from the get-go. Some I know for sure chose not to vote in the General or worse, voted Trump to spite Hillary but in actuality themselves. Go figure.
My hope is many of them Dems, after having gotten some common sense knocked upside their heads, won't forget the error of their ways. We could and should have had Hillary and would have except for what I'll call the Susan Sarandon complex: Not a dime's worth of difference between the two, according to her.
See, even liberals, and highly educated ones at that, can be the most stupidest people you'd ever come across.
Let's face it. We Dems got exactly what we deserved, good and hard. It should have been a Hillary landslide. All fault does not lie with Trump supporters. The fault lies with US all.
DD
Manhattan
37
From your pen to God's ear....
19
From your mouth (pen/keyboard) to God's ears.
Then this long national nightmare will be over.
13
Sorry, I don't buy it. Trump would not "seeth and tweet"!!! He will refuse to give up the White House. He will claim voter fraud. He will claim government fraud. And he will call for his supporters to raise up in violent revolt. And they will listen. And they will follow. We are headed for a revolution of the mindless & ignorant because that is what Donald says.... and that is good enough for them. Who are they going to believe? The Government? The Enemy of the People (journalists)? Or DT? He is already priming them.
24
Great article. Now how about writing one about trump's trial and conviction for...oh jeez, where to start!
43
From your mouth to God's ears!
3
The real fear being - Trump does lose, and January 20, 2021 rolls around - and Trump refuses to vacate the White House. Even worse, large numbers of his supporters blockade President-Elect Whomever from entering the White House and taking the seat in the Oval Office.
23
2 interesting takes (yours and Bret Stephens).
The bottom line is that the Dems don't know how to win. They whine and don't turn out. The Republicans are seriously dangerous and vote like they mean it.
Plus, Warren's a turn off just like Hillary was for millions of voters. People vote with their emotions not their heads.
7
Some quick facts about 2016 vs. 2020
In Trump's favor
• Remember that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, got 4.5 million votes in 2016. If he hadn't run, Trump would have won the popular vote by 1.5 million assuming 100% of his votes went to Trump, not a bad assumption - Libertarians for Hillary? But anything North of, say 70% would do. Trump would also have won Colorado in the EC without Johnson on the ballot and the 2 EVs inMaine at-large.
In the TBD Democratic candidate's favor: It' a 100% mathematical certainty that Trump would have lost without Jill Stein:
• PDT margin in MI, 10,000 votes/Jill Stein vote in MI, 51,463
• PDT margin in WI, 22,748 votes/Jill Stein vote in WI, 31,072
• PDT margin in PA, 44, 292 votes/Jill Stein vote in PA, 49,981
Will another Jill Stein emerge? One way it could happen would be a split Democratic Convention. A Biden-Castro ticket might lead to a separate Democratic Socialist candidate.
8
This rendering is more realistic for no other reason than Donald Trump’s childish understanding of how the world actually works.
Eventually Trump’s ineptitude will effect enough pocketbooks to force the scales from the eyes of the gullible.
6
This article along with Mr. Stephen's article continues to put Mr. Trump in the news--which is exactly what he wants. When will all media understand that the 24/7 coverage of this man only serves to keep his name at the forefront? Please just report his Tweets and do not give him the free billion dollar campaign funds that you did prior to his election.
13
If Democrats can run a Pro-growth, America first candidate they have a strong chance to challenge President Trump. However, the reality is that the economy is growing at 4.1%, North Korea has returned the remains of over 50 Korea War veterans per the agreement that Trump has negotiated with North Korea, , ISIS has been decimated and Trump is killing Russians on the battlefield in Syria. American Companies are hiring again and tax revenues to the Federal Government are reaching record highs. What are Democrats offering? Most Americans are not ideologues, they just want results and Trump is delivering. What do Democrats offer in return?
4
This scares me. It was written in a bubble. I personally think trump belongs in the zoo behind bars but Elizabeth warren will never win. We have no message and we better get one fast and identify some candidates that will appeal to swing voters. nancy Pelosi need to be honored then told politely to get out of the way.. i think we are going to lose- it makes me sick to say it but there it is
15
A "ham sandwich" should be able to beat Trump by 2020.
We will see things from this administration in the next two years that will make the first two look quaint by comparison.
It will be virtually impossible for him to get reelected unless there is some kind of voting chicanery by the GOP and his friends from Russia.
10
I hope the Democratic candidate is Elizabeth Warren. And I hope that Kamala Harris, because she has the huge handicap of hailing from "nutty" northern California, doesn't ruin things by running. [That I live there, love it, & don't find it nutty at all is irrelevant.]
4
If Trump loses in 2020 he will claim massive frauds, will not concede his defeat and will declare the election null and void. Massive chaos will be the outcome.
13
If we dwell a bit more into the Russian "putin-oligarchs-mafia" and expose that international corrupt network aided and abetted by immoral money men in many countries, and high quantity of laundered money you will see that Trump is just one member of that clique.
He wants to be a Putin but he is too much of a coward for that and his mental processing powers is too unfocused and too limited.
Conducting affairs of state is not really something he is interested in.
I am assuming that Mueller, the CIA, and the FBI are attempting to decipher that web and that many U.S. thugs will thus be exposed and fiercely punished.
This is a cancer more dangerous than radical islam.
13
It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Trump's conspiracy-theorist supporters deem this July 29, 2018 NYTimes column about the results of the November 2020 Presidential election to be definitive proof that the NYTimes publishes "fake news." Alex Jones - I eagerly look forward to your take on this.
2
@Jay Orchard It isn't fake news it's pathetic opinion.
2
From your fingers to Gawd's ears.
5
"The report of my death was an exaggeration.” - Mark Twain
David your "opinion" of President Trump's defeat in 2020 is more wishful thinking than exaggeration and you do know what people say about opinions.
2
As a soothsayer, I predict Trump's ugly past will come back to bite him. His 2020 baggage will be mountainous. He will die in his Valley of Lies.
12
You mentioned that the only reason George W Bush wasn't as unpopular as the other 4 guys who lost the popular vote but still became president, though only served one term, was because W was a "wartime president," which he, himself, must have said at least 2,000 times during his time in office, most often with a chuckle (cf "Inappropriate affect" -- which, the last time I looked, was categorized as a PSYCHOSIS; i.e., a real bad, incurable hombre, like pathological lying and narcissism).
I realize it wouldn't have fit the theme of your article, but I do wish you'd had the opportunity to say that the only reason W was a "wartime president" was because HE STARTED THE WAR -- for NO EARTHLY REASON, since not a soul on Earth -- save Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, Pearl, and the other members of Neocon Nirvana -- thought Iraq/Saddam Hussein had anything whatsoever to do with 9/11; i.e., the justification for the war!
Today's equivalent would be Trump screaming that he deserved the Nobel Prize in Economics because he helped tamp down the worldwide economic crisis that HE CREATED!
Will this idiocy never end??
14
Comic-con writers about fantasy futures are so funny.
1
“I’d also put Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the top tier, with Kirsten Gillibrand and Mitch Landrieu not far behind — and many others have a shot.” I wish one of those “many others” was my former exceptionally smart, experienced, clever, witty—and guilty of instances of stupid behavior, being a human—MN State Senator Al Franken, persecuted by turncoat members of his own party (you in particular, K Gillibrand, who will NEVER get my vote), busily throwing stones at him out of their glass houses while Drumpf and the GOP were busy reducing the White House to a mob meeting pad.
13
James Comey having his own talk show on ABC is a nice touch! Ha!
8
Nov. 5th, 2020, Breaking News:
WY, MT, ID, UT, ND, OK & SD Declare unilateral secession from the USA, adopting as their national title slogan "Right to be White" & begin mobilizing militias with their vast stockpiles of firearms & ammunition.
They are joined by AR, LA, MS, TN & AL which declare themselves the "Southern Confederated Republic of America". Texas is reported to be pending.
Lame Duck Donald immediately declared via tweet implementation of emergency martial law, nullifying the recent election & informing that he has mobilized the National Guard to occupy NYC, Chicago & LA where strict curfews will be in effect 'indefinitely' in order to quell potential 'unrest'.
Reports from within the National Guard indicate significantly torn loyalties over whether to put the citizenry under armed 'security' or to follow unconstitutional orders.
Acting president Trump promises immediate institution of national 'Stand Your Ground' laws & immunity to anyone who feels it necessary to shoot on sight 'suspects' who appear to be 'acting out' in public or who appear 'suspicious'.
All public demonstrations are officially banned & all news must be approved by the newly formed Federal Department of Information.
Stay tuned...
12
Nov. 9th, 2020, Breaking News:
WY, MT, ID, UT, ND, OK & SD Declare unilateral secession from the USA, adopting as their national title slogan "Right to be White" & begin mobilizing militias with their vast stockpiles of firearms & ammunition.
They are joined by AR, LA, MS, TN & AL which declare themselves the "Southern Confederated Republic of America". Texas is reported to be pending.
Lame Duck Donald immediately declared via tweet implementation of emergency martial law, nullifying the recent election & informing that he has mobilized the National Guard to occupy NYC, Chicago & LA where strict curfews will be in effect 'indefinitely' in order to quell potential 'unrest'.
Reports from within the National Guard indicate significantly torn loyalties over whether to put the citizenry under armed 'security' or to follow unconstitutional orders.
Acting president Trump promises immediate institution of national 'Stand Your Ground' laws & immunity to anyone who feels it necessary to shoot on sight 'suspects' who appear to be 'acting out' in public or who appear 'suspicious'.
All public demonstrations are officially banned & all news must be approved by the newly formed Federal Department of Information.
Stay tuned...
3
"The unpopularity of Hillary Clinton"? What are you talking about?
She won the popular vote by millions and millions and millions of us would still love to see her become president.
So sick of this old saw. PLEASE DROP IT NOW!!!
12
But to compare Obama and Trump, you’ve got to give Trump two terms.
2
Why Elizabeth Warren in both of the scenarios? Why???? Please, God, tell me why!!!!
4
Another con artist, evangelist Jim Bakker, is hocking domesday products on cable TV so that his followers can prepare for the End of Times. For once in his life, Jim might not be that far off.
Even if Trump is defeated in 2020, How much damage can he "accomplish" in the interim? He's devastated our standing globally, and promoted racial divide and bigotry domestically. He has paid off at least one bunny and a porn star, and bragged about defiling women. He's eviscerated healthcare and the environment, and threatens public education. He's ripped children from their parents, separating thousands. He lies with such zeal that some question whether his public appearances should even be covered by journalists.
Donald Trump is many things, and none of them good. He will be remembered as the destructive, maniacal bull in the china shop, leaving a trail of destruction larger than any leader in our nation's history with his deadly horns.
So sorry if I can't get excited about his loss in 2020. I'm among the millions of Americans in the vast centrist majority who are grieving his presence in the here and now.
15
How about a Biden–Ocasio-Cortez ticket? Or a Sanders–Harris ticket? Or maybe a Warren–Kennedy ticket (as in Joe Kennedy III)?
1
We can beat Trump. Democrats need to appeal to populist, progressive ideas, like enforcing the antitrust act, thus reducing everyone's cable bill. Ideas like enforcing the tax laws. This would annoy the 1%, but would reduce most taxpayer's burden. Ideas like a maximum wage, which among other things would expose the insanity of Betsy DeVos owning ten yachts, while millions work for minimum wage. That is how you beat a guy like Trump.
10
Imagined though this might be, in 2016, the Times lost all credibility (with me anyway) with regard to predicting anything related to a presidential election. Give it a rest.
3
Better column: Trump lost the 2016 election.
13
If you can get people to believe this it just might work, because the Dems REAL agenda of straight up socialism, preaching that capitalism must go, shutting down free speech, relentless identity politics, open borders, sanctuary cities, abolishing ICE, raising taxes, more regulation, weaker defense, leading from behind, continually slamming half the country as evil, stupid, xenophobic, misogynist racists, chumming up to the radical agenda(s) of Black Lives Matter, CAIR, Antifa, third wave feminists, the lunatic PC wing of the party, WORSE relations with Russia, screaming at people you disagree with in public and encouraging others to do the same, is a recipe for political suicide. And endlessly calling President Trump every name in the book will get you precisely where it's gotten you so far.....nowhere.
Here's a suggestion....Put America and Americans first (I can’t believe this is a controversial concept), and maybe then your candidate will oust the loathed and dreaded Trump, and the left can begin to build a progressive, multicultural utopia of hugs, rainbows, unicorns and safe-spaces for everyone near the Big Rock Candy Mountain. Good luck.
2
@Thomas Field what “half the country?” You mean the 23% who identify as Republicans?
7
If we had run Sanders in 2016 neither this nor Mr. Stephens articles would have ever been written as I think Bernie would have sent Trump packing back to his Manhattan Tower in a hurry. Still, we have to play the hand we get dealt and we got a tough one to play.
However, as viable as Sen. Sanders might have been in 2016, at 79 in 2020, I'm not sure he'd want to go through a full blown presidential campaign again. So I think those who suggest him now to run then are perhaps overly optimistic. Of course Trump himself won't exactly be a "spring chicken" at 74 either in 2020, so who knows?
In either event, both scenarios have provided insight, entertainment, and useful commentary. We just may well end up with something else altogether. Time will tell.
2
Somehow everyone does not mention one of the main causes of Hillary's defeat: Bernie Sanders: I don´t mean him. but the effect of his campaign. many young democrats (and probably of some older ones) stayed home. Apparently some even voted for Trump. The world hopes this won't happen again (someone fighting for a nomination without any chace, but helping the adversary).
John Bauer, Mexico City
12
For those who love Republicans' Trumped up overheated crashworthy market (it's not a question of if, but when, it will be the mother of all crashes, with no Obama to rescue us), here's some facts for working stiffs:
If you want help with this, Elizabeth Warren is who you need.
"New Study Confirms That American Workers Are Getting Ripped Off" http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/oecd-study-labor-conditions...
"most Americans’ wages aren’t getting any better, at all. Over the past 12 months, piddling wage gains — combined with modest inflation — have left the vast majority of our nation’s laborers with lower real hourly earnings than they had in May 2017. On Wall Street, the second-longest expansion in U.S. history has brought boom times — in the coming weeks, S&P 500 companies will dole out a record-high $124.1 billion in quarterly dividends. But on Main Street, returns have been slim."
"American workers are more likely to be poor .... That gives the U.S. a higher “low-income rate” than any other developed nation besides Greece and Spain."
'We also get fired more often — and with far less notice."
"Labor’s share of income has been falling faster in the U.S. than almost anywhere else."
"primary cause of that fact isn’t bad trade agreements or “job killing” regulations — its the union-busting laws and court rulings that the president has done so much to abet."
17
"The exception is George W. Bush, who benefited from being a wartime president."
Planting this seed wasn't necessary. I would have written:
The exception is George W. Bush.
5
@Michael B What seed?
1
It will take a Democrat who is very comfortable with the progressive economic justice agenda to expose the flaws of Trumponomics, consolidate the energetic, progressive youth vote, win back a significant share of the white working class and end our national nightmare. However, Elizabeth Warren is too pedantic and the electorate is too anti-intellectual and sexist for her to accomplish the task. The more I think about this, I find myself going back to Bernie as just about the only Democrat who could do it. Booker? He has been a fiscal conservative his entire career until recently. Biden? He is not an economic populist and could not successfully act like one. He’s been a professional Washington politician for too long to credibly transform into a radical liberal economic champion. I know this is a minority opinion among Democrats but I honestly believe Trump would beat Biden and most other career politicians. The only other candidate I think who could do it is California Senator Kamala Harris. She is a new figure, but has star power, intelligence, looks, charisma, navy blue liberal policy credentials, law enforcement experience and appears to really want the job. She is a woman and a person of color. However, the right candidate can turn these factors into strengths. Unlike Warren, and much like Barack Obama, Harris is an exceptional campaigner who connects with all demographic groups.
6
@Howard Gregory
"[Harris] is a woman and a person of color. However, the right candidate can turn these factors into strengths."
Those factors ARE strengths.
3
Just thinking of 2020 makes my stomach hurt. I'm exhausted by our country's current unthinking tribalism and how low the bar has now been set as far as personal and political behavior. As a teacher, I'm embarrassed by the country's lack of critical thinking skills. Two more years of this is going to be hard to take. If it turns out to be 6 years I may just die of dehydration from crying so much.
9
If you look at Gallup's Presidential job approval ratings for every president since Truman, Donald Trump has, by far, the worst record of any of them. None of the others spent their entire first two years below fifty percent. Not Nixon, not Ford, not even Carter. Trump peaked at 45% twice, and has otherwise remained in the low-40s down to the mid-30s.
As such, his prospects for re-election are already not good. He barely won the Electoral College in 2016, and arguably had outside help to manage that. If Republicans lose the House in 2018, Trump's support, such as it is, will begin to crumble rapidly. Republicans are currently fearful of Trump's base and many are trying hard to ride on his coat tails into November. If they lose the House anyway, all bets will be off, and there will be no more coat tails. Add to that the likely repercussions of an unflattering (at best) report from Mueller, and Trump's numbers will erode further, and he has no room for his numbers to erode. His most ardent supporters can remain as defiant as ever, but a further loss of even three to five points will make winning a second term completely impossible.
There is a train wreck a-comin', and Donald J. Trump is the Chief Engineer.
15
How Trump Lost; How Trump Won were both compelling reads. It's obvious from both articles that the United States is very divided. As Lincoln said, "A house divided cannot stand." Maybe it's premature to render a guess at this point whether Trump will win or lose. What is not premature is whether Mueller will win (or lose) his effort to impeach Trump before 2020. With the new evidence about the Trump Tower meeting, it appears that no amount of lying by Trump or his co-horts will change the facts that Trump and everyone at that meeting were guilty of conspiracy to ensure Trump's election to the presidency.
Also we can now determine who the big financial winners are in the collusion between Trump and the GOP and their donors. Sadly, the people who voted for Trump have been the biggest losers financially and will continue to lose to 2020 and beyond.
It's indisputable that middle class blue collar workers lost and the plutocrats/corporatists have won.
In addition to causing great economic harm to the middle class, the Trump administration has given billions in tax cuts to the corporations that took the middle class jobs away in the first place.
So will those voters still vote for Trump in 2020 when their jobs did not come back?
15
@Donald Coureas "So will those voters still vote for Trump in 2020 when their jobs did not come back?"
Possibly, if those voters don't make the connection between their lost jobs and Trump's policies.
4
@Donald Coureas and now they want to give the rich another tax cut - we know who the winners are, and they are not the 99%.
3
Love it. Let's hope it happens.
3
“Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.” Trump might have thought this up if he weren’t so unintelligent himself. Democrat politicos and strategists are crafty enough to know the rules of money and deception that got a corrupt confidence man as entirely repulsive as trump into the White House (even if the victory was a hollow one). Now it’s time to play by those rules, and win with an even higher trump.
3
I hate to say this, I don't know if it's just the fact that he's a better writer, but Bret Stephens makes a stronger case. Now that is truly...
Sad.
4
Oh my! Sounds good, but too soon to predict. Any Democrat will do though.
1
@Carol
No, any Democrat will not do. Trump has made an emotional connection with white working-class voters who have been alienated by politicians and mystified by politics. A moderate “electable” Democrat lacking ownership of a set of issues they deeply care about and a competing constituency will lose. Read my comment and my other reply.
@Howard Gregory What other reply? Why is the burden on us to follow you?
Interesting picture . . . you can see where his make-up ends.
3
Fun to read, but fails to mention the outbreaks of organized and random violence; ICE agents' spontaneous attack and seizure of the Sacramento Capitol Building; Trump's unwillingness to accept the election outcome; instigation of National curfews; subsequent suspension of habeas corpus; seizure of assets; launch of the Gauleiters for Freedom program; even more massive surveillance, etc, etc...
3
I can see this article being written but I can assure you it won't be Elizabeth Warren. If she is the Dem candidate, Trump wins another term. We need a centrist who can appeal to the center.
2
I'm all about a good day dream, but David really wasted a lot of time (both his and readers) with this fantasy. Problem is with the fantasy genre, you have to create moderately believable characters. President Elizabeth Warren isn't a believable character; even in an Opinion piece. If you're looking for a more believable piece I'd recommend your buddy Bret's:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/opinion/trump-re-election-2020.html
3
@Taggart - Leonhardt explained he used Warren because his buddy Bret used Warren in his piece.
4
What a great column. Perhaps there is light at the end of this long and dismal tunnel.
I think he'll be unavailable for the 2020 presidential race: in prison of resigned from the presidency.
3
Anyone else find this article wishful thinking that Trump might lose vs. how he could lose?
1
Stephens' column was much, much more convincing. Nice try, though.
3
David Leonhardt. I definitely prefer your version to Bret Stephens’ and really see it as more plausible.
What about Cory Booker as VP instead of Holder? Charismatic, a hero ( rescued fire Vito me as mayor of Newark) and love his commitment to prison and justice reform. ( full disclosure: I’m from NJ. Or Kamala as VP and Sanders or Biden for POTUS. Conventional wisdom says “younger blood” but they poll the best! Partly cause they have the greatest appeal for white working class males and are the antithesis of elitists. (Really, not the Trumpian pretend version). Lastly, they such straight shooters. Doubt either of them has told as many lies in a year or two as Trump has in a day. People feel that as such a breath of fresh air that it “trumps” youth.
4
So many comments seem to imply that they never read the Postscript at the bottom where Leonhardt this was done as book end to the previously published How Trump Won Re-election in 2020 by Bret Stephens (which had the link). It's been added to the Opinions pieces so people can see it again:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/opinion/trump-re-election-2020.html
I guess some people just don't like fun.
1
Mr. Leonhardt's article concludes with reference to "Trump's meteoric political career."
Contrary to popular lore ("meteoric rise"), meteors *come down in flames*.
2
Might be more believable with a better opposition candidate. The Democrats can do better than Elizabeth Warren.....right?
1
From your lips to God's ear.
6
What about President Winfrey? As long as we are throwing it out there...Why not elect Bernie Sanders King? President Snoopy and Vice President Woodstock..
2
So Mr. Leonhardt imagines another totally unprepared person moving to the White House. Ms Warren would be the worst candidate the Democrats could put forward & might even deliver the election to the nincompoop President, Trump.
She has absolutely no experience in managing anything (much like Mr. Obama - isn't amateur hour once a century enough). There are numerous good Democratic governors & mayors who have the experience of governing & don't have the extreme views that Ms. Warren holds that not only would help them get elected but give them the competence to handle one of the most challenging management jobs in the world.
1
@Richard Huber - it is obvious Trump has no experience in managing or leading anything.
He certainly has experience in bossing, bullying, demanding, ordering, and in fiery rhetoric, but in managing? It's obvious (at least to those who actually can manage or lead) that the the answer is no.
At least Warren has experience in the Senate. More than Trump had.
5
"The exception is George W. Bush, who benefited from being a wartime president" Uh oh!
3
From your pen to God's ear.
3
And in 2024, I'll be looking for a Joe Kennedy III–Stacey Abrams ticket.
2
I still can't believe this f.a. is the president.
I was watching a show last night about how JFK handled the Cuban missile crisis with Krushchev. Thank God Trump wasn't the commander in chief back then. We wouldn't be here today.
4
Trump will not be running in 2020...either because enough Red Team senators voted to oust him or he fails to get the nomination. Bet the former because Mueller report will confirm all we know. Even his "base" and Faux News know he's in Putin's pocket, is a money launderer, a tax cheat, etc. Right now his "base" and the voices at the State TV News don't care. They will.
4
Winning the popular vote as she did by nearly 3 million votes, it’s its interesting that even now, even in this article, the press calls Hillary Clinton “unpopular”. If America were a normal country—not beholden at its birth to colonies afraid to lose the fruits of their own original sin—Secretary Clinton would be president today. And we would not be living this treasonous nightmare.
9
I should live so long.
2
Could it really happen? I wonder.
What I am truly concerned about is what happens when Trump is no longer president, whenever that happy day comes.
As most Americans remember, when Trump was chief birther he did exert and gain extreme support for that lie. His tweet-ability to garner news coverage throughout his time in office never ceased and did monopolize news from all news sources for that whole time, so far. And realizing that most of the coverage, although pointing out the lies, except Fox news (his propaganda arm) that constantly echoed all the untruths 24/7 and the turn-arounds from "for" to "against" and vice versa, everything was gladly swallowed totally by his "faithful" followers including the peoples' represented in the Congress.
Does anyone believe that that would magically stop? As long as there is Trump, twitter and Fox news this country will remain under siege on a daily basis.
Trump's eventual exit from the oval office, regardless of whether due to an election or impeachment won't, I believe, free America, or the rest of the world from the frightful memory and damage of what happens when American citizens give up their intelligent thought and choice for "something different".
4
The more winnable 2020 scenario: Democratic Party Presidential nominee former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and VP nominee Sen. Kamala Harris win on a platform of single payer health care (repeal ACA), 2 year free community college, increase corporate taxes to 25% from 21% to help pay for health care and free education, legalize medical marijuana nationwide and tax, business incentives to support job retraining programs, emphasize more public-private partnerships to solve local educational problems, decrease military spending albeit with a healthy respect for national security, promote energy renewables, re-engage our allies to combat climate change, and prevent the further drift to the right of the Supreme Court.
The winning message: Democrats work to support self-sustaining, healthy, and resilient communities. We are one country. Moving forward means everyone moving together.
17
@Margaret S I am so with you on Hickenlooper.
2
"In hindsight, the extraordinary nature of the circumstances that propelled Trump in 2016 have become obvious..." You mentioned three or four but left out two closely related factors: 1) Reality TV and 2) Twitter.
6
Fortunately or unfortunately, Stephens' scenario seems quite a bit more specific and thereby plausible than Leonhardt's more naive
version of hypotheticals.
2
Eric Holder? Really? Much as I admire and respect General Holder, I think the country has had quite enough of candidates who have never held elective office in their life!
1
@We the Pimples of the United Face
He's had an awful lot of OTHER government experience. He's had to fight his way (and Obama's way) out of all the sinkholes the republican idiots put 'on the trail.' during President Obama's eight years in office.
4
Although I like Elizabeth Warren and agree with a lot of her policies, which support the middle class, and she is willing to fight the rich 1% oligarchs and Wall Street corruption, but I think that she is too liberal to win a national election for President. I also think that the country is still to misogynistic and racist to elect the first woman President, or a second black president, so unfortunately, candidates like Cory Booker, Eric Holder and Kamala Harris (double whammy there as a black woman) would have a 90% chance of losing to Trump. I hope the Democrats nominate a moderate, straight, Christian, white male. Let's defeat Trump first, then move further left later.
5
You left out the part where Trump declares the election invalid and declares martial law to quell the riots that ensue.
9
My appreciation for your words here!
Yes, it could ALSO go this way, fine to be reminded of that. Thank you David
7
Hope somebody doesn't tell trump about W. being the exception among unpopular presidents in winning a second term. He'll choose a country to attack if he thinks it'll help him win.
33
Not to worry... Nate Silver will likely give Warren a 90% chance of victory. What could go wrong?
Here's what: Dems will once again focus on "getting out the vote" in coastal blue states (which is meaningless) rather than focus on convincing moderate voters in swing states that they won't go loony left if elected...
10
@Chris
I agree that this is a very likely outcome. The Democratic Party appears to have gone to the trouble of creating a platform. They fail to give their platform as much time as they invest in bemoaning Trump’s latest outrage.
3
@Chris I think the Democratic establishment is getting the message (it's been slow, but they are getting the message), to lean further left and nominate more women. Now, as the article states, they can offer a platform for more livable wage for the average Joe, tax cuts for the average joe, affordable health care for the average Joe, better jobs for the average Joe, we're in!
3
Even the mildest of fantasies seems to have thrown these Trump supporters into a terrible panic. No one doubts the country can keep moving in a very mean ugly reactionary direction. So why all this compulsive proving they are exhilarated by it. Are they afraid it will continue and then they will be stuck with the world they say they want but a world that easily can and very likely will harm them as badly as it will harm everyone else. Their loud heavy breathing assertions won't protect them from the contempt of their masters.
6
Entertainment is where you find it. But I wouldn't actually COUNT on independent voters embracing the democrats. Get rid of the superdelegates and admit politics is not a private club, then probably. If not, I have doubts.
Let's be realistic. Trump knocked off the entire rebel party. And Hillary bought the nomination, cash on the barrel-head, and the rest of them knew it, so didn't run. Instead of telling us, they brought in Bernie, to play patty-cake, and then had to slam a knife in his back. Neither party has a leg to stand on. So... who should I vote for?
7
@Kurtis Engle Sorry, Mr Engle, but the Indys have already begun leaning left and that is truly significant in many locales. I'm referencing latest Quinnipac polls.
6
@Kurtis Engle How about a candidate that doesn't put kids in cages, that treats women with respect, that has a vocabulary larger than five-year-old?
2
@Russell Manning
Democrats and left are not equivalent terms.
Elizabeth Warren? Being against things you don’t like is not a leadership quality.
8
Trump lose? Not in his vocabulary.
He will lie his way out of it.
7
Get over it snowflake. President Trump is the BEST President the USA has seen for decades. @esp
Well done, David.
Best part is that the piece really drew his cadre out of the woodwork to join the conversation. Hope they all bought hardcopies so they could tack the article on their walls. Mo' money for The Times.
Having to deal with an assertive woman ... again ... would probably drive him up his wall. But Elizabeth Warren is a good idea. As her running mate, with a tip of the "sombrero" to the Latinx communities, would ideally be Julian Castro of TX. He's got all the right check-offs in his resume for the 2020 era.
9
Bloomberg 2020. He can choose his own Democratic Vp.
17
I cannot but say why this smells like a "wish" sandwich!
Its a liberal magnet and the dream of the people who did not vote in 2016 and let our country slide back atleast a generation!
3
If only! To the Dems: “Ring, ring... Clue Phone!”
3
all this yet no mention of the inevitable avalanche of "the vote was rigged" and "millions of illegals voted" claims that will appear on Fox, Breitbart, and Infowars the moment they realize their guy is in trouble...
9
But of course. With Trump hell-bent on canvassing for his acolytes, and trash talking his opponents, like they do not even exist, he is well on his way, to gloss over his own inveterate inadequacies. His past and present acquisitive and acrimonious attitudes will stand him in good stead among many of his benighted blokes, who are still hankering after mundane and banausic amenities in life, as promised by their supremo.
For Trump, winning in elections is rapidly becoming something like a bagatelle. His bamboozles and ballyhoos have, obviously, snowballed into battle cries for his electioneering endeavors. With blatant disregard for the tenets of truth, his pompous pursuits of burking one issue after the other, have earned him stellar honors among the hard and far right wingnuts.
With those said, Trump's cabal have leaned to condone his past (mis)deeds, and they are quite eager and willing to take the nation into some Stygian stages of civilization. Somebody ought to do something tangible to put the country back on track. But then, it is better to be on the right track than to be just back on track.
And what about 2020? If sane minds prevail, these might ring the death knell for Trump's hopes of being re-elected.
3
Hillary 2020.
2
@HT
Equals a guaranteed second Trump term...
@HT
I despise trump, but let's give up on Hillary. She blew it big time in 2016. It's time for a fresher, younger candidate.
2
From your pen to God's hand
2
Seriously? The NYT is now writing fan fiction?
8
@squeezywhizbang
More fan fiction: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/26/opinion/trump-re-election-2020.html
Yes - both are fiction neither has happened. Yet.
1
From your online website "newsprint" to God's (whatever form she make take) ears.
4
“Normal rules of politics do apply to Donald Trump, after all”. That’s maybe true… in a normal world, in a normal situation.
Donald Trump “doesn’t care of the middle class”? Does he just care about his country, the United States of America?
Now, as far as we are just in the exercise of imagining the next 2020 election, who for example can say for sure that Donald Trump won’t be a wartime President?
I feel really eager to share David Leonhardt’s point of view. But as a world citizen, I think that in a normal world, Donald Trump would have never been the President of the USA. This simple fact radically changes all the perspective.
1
The true story: DJT, the true pied piper of Hamelin leads all his spellbound supporters to a magical destination, behind a big beautiful wall, where there are no immigrants and no people of colour, and they all disappear forever.
Thereafter people of reason live in a much saner society, manage to reestablish a safe compassionate society where healthcare is taken care of, taxes are used for the benefit of all, guns quietly renounced, the huge challenge of climate change is tacked in cooperation with the rest of the world, equitable trade is restored, diplomacy is used for reestablishing strong ties with friendly nations and working on compromises with not so friendly ones.
Trump is no more than a fleeting footnote in history books...
9
@Fly on the wall Yeah whatever snowflake. You lost and can’t get over it. As I always say liberalism is a mental disorder and you were loaded with it I’m sorry. You need to come to terms with the fact you lost
Literal Fake News
2
@J L M - Just to be clear, this is an Op-Ed piece, NOT news. It's the flip side of the Bret Stephens' NYT Op-Ed piece imagining a Trump 2020 victory posted several days ago.
11
@J L M
Well, JLM, how did you not notice that this is an OPINION piece, in response to a previous OPINION piece.
Opinion, by definition, is NOT news and doesn't claim to be.
Perhaps you should invest in a dictionary or use a free online one so you don't look so foolish in future.
1
@J L M It's an Opinion. Is this how they teach in Kansas schools?
I'd like to avoid speculative fiction like this until I see a more cohesive Democratic party.
But I will say, the general tenor of fear here of any proposal even vaguely left-leaning as an iceberg to sink Democratic hopes is a little disheartening. Ditto the regionalism; you know the East Coast is a part of the United States -kind of famously the original U.S.- right?
6
As much as I'd love to wake up one morning and to read this in the news, I respectfully submit that this is journalistic approach is extremely reckless. Is this not precise the type of media output that leads to voter apathy, the "Trump isn't gonna win, so I don't need to vote"?
4
I like Senator Warren, she's one of the only politicians with the guts to stand up to Trump, she's smart and she stands up for the issues I care about. That said, she's another polarizing figure in the mold of HRC, and will be skewered if it comes out she doesn't actually have Native American heritage. For those reasons, I would prefer she stays in Congress, continuing to do the good work she's been doing.
14
I'll try again, since my first attempt failed. I have a different view of a Trump loss, independent of who the Democratic candidate is. This scenario assumes that Trump is still president and has not died or been allowed to resign due to compelling evidence of treason and/or money lending after which he will be pardoned by his successor.
Please be reminded that the day after Trump was inaugurated he filed for re-election in 2020 . I can't imagine him wanting to voluntarily give up the power of the presidency.
We have Gore vs. Bush version 2.0 with a sinister outcome. Trump loses in 2020 by a small margin and declares the election to be rigged, just like he did in 2016. He takes his case to the Supreme Court, now overwhelming conservative since Ginsburg are gone and been replaced by two people vetted by the Federalist Society.
While the Supreme Court considers Trump's case, there are nationwide demonstrations and riots reminiscent of the 1968 Democratic convention. They may have been orchestrated by agents provocateurs in the mold of Steve Bannon. The Court declares the 2020 election invalid and gives the presidency to Trump. The demonstrations continue whereupon Trump federalizes the national guard and declares martial law.
Trump would love to be a ruler like Putin, Kim , Duterte and all those other strongmen/dictators ( and they're all men) whom he admires.
Who knows what would happen next?
6
The question isn't why did you choose Elizabeth Warren as the candidate; that choice was perfectly sensible. MY question is why did you not mention, even once, the effect Bernie Sanders had in the 2016 Presidential on driving the Democratic Party back to its roots on the left. SHAME ON YOU!
3
@Diane Driver
Perfectly agreed. As a 2016 Bernie supporter who begrudgingly voted for Hillary in the general, I, too, was upset by this glaring omission or Bernie or the Justice Dems in general. This indicates the elites still don’t quite get it. As much as I like Warren, if they don’t learn the lesson of 2016 and embrace a proudly progressively platform and denounce their failed neoliberal corporatism, they will tragically lose again, and this nation might be lost for good.
1
Did you read the article? Did you catch the postscript? SHAME ON YOU!
@Diane Driver You are confused as to the roots of the Democratic Party. The first Democrat president Andrew Jackson forced the Indians to walk down the trail of tears and we know how that ended for them. Then all the other Democrats were mostly Klan members. The Democrats filibuster the 1964 civil rights legislation. The angry man standing in the school door blocking black kids from getting in was a Democrat George Wallace was his name. Shall I go on?
I don't think Trump runs in 2020.
He never wanted the job in the first place. This job is torture for him. He only wanted a platform to launch his next phase of media business. Winning was more a surprise to him than anyone.
With his fawning, galvanized base in tow, he will fabricate a self-serving exit narrative and assume the job he ever really wanted: media mogul.
7
No, he will run alright!
Not running would feel like losing to him.
2
Bret's scenario was more plausible. Unfortunately.
3
The Brookings Institute tells us that census data reveals America will become a "minority" (non-white) country by 2045. Trumpublican's efforts to curtail immigration of non-whites reveals America's most persistently challenging problem is racism, a self-defeating and inhumane position.
The fundamental character of America is being blatantly attacked.
Democrats, and the goodwill of people of all stripes, must affirm that the American ideal of "e pluribus unum," ("out of many, one") continues to inform humanity. If campaigns show the face of America in every person, our fundamental unity will continue to propel civilization forward.
4
@dmbones
Just like religion, racism is incomprehensible to those not afflicted by it. And, naturally, perfectly natural to those who are.
@Kurtis Engle
Thanks for your reply, Kurtis. To the degree that we are able to see one another as kin, all of humanity is negatively affected by racism. An advancing civilization is slowed; such effect could be measured.
Racism is a learned human behavior. We're not innately born to attribute survival with varying shades of skin color. If we do learn racism circumstantially, modern life (now capable of seeing one another in realtime for the first time in human history) grinds down such rough edges to facilitate our continuing advancement.
Cheers!
You lost me at "President-elect Elizabeth Warren."
If that is who democrats nominate, Stephens wins, we lose.
4
@Paul yeah, people said the same thing about Trump, didn’t they? “It’ll never happen.”
A reality check for liberals, democrats or progressives ... Like it or not, Trump's 18 months in WH, has proven the following:
(1) The country is deeply divided into urban/suburban liberals and heartland conservatives.
(2) Republican voters will forgive any amount of moral, legal or ethical bankruptcy on part of Trump even as he systematically dismantles government programs most of them rely on.
(3) Republican lawmakers, driven by their own hunger for power and greed, and with same conservative mentality as that of republican base, will do nothing to stop Trump.
(4) Democrats have failed to come up with a charismatic candidate and pragmatic agenda focusing on issues affecting the masses.
The reality is that the progressive views aside, democrats need a southern white male candidate that can draw evangelical voters in addition to traditional democratic voters. Absent that, as I would love to see Trump go, I am afraid Bret Stephen's scenario just might come true in 2020.
4
@Assay
Your fictional candidate has a name? No? I didn't think so.
2
President Carter served only one term, right?
1
This is the wildcard for 2020:
Gallup JULY 12, 2018
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the U.S. Senate prepares to hold confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the public is strongly opposed to any attempts to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling that made abortion legal nationwide. Currently, 64% of Americans believe Roe v. Wade should stand, while 28% would like to see it overturned.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/237071/nearly-two-thirds-americans-roe-wade...
------------
The religious right is a populist movement that came into existence largely as a reaction against the Roe v Wade decision. The religious right induces millions of lower middle class whites to vote Republican. If Roe had not been passed, many, perhaps most would vote Democrat, or they would not vote.
President Trump has promised those people that he would appoint Supreme Court justices who will overturn Roe v Wade. If this does not happen, those people will feel betrayed. If this does happen many pro choice Republicans will vote against Trump. Pro choice Democrats and pro choice independents, who are dissatisfied with the Democrat nominee, will vote for the Democrat nominee anyway.
Yes, we can only hope he loses and loses big! But does it have to be a Super Lefty? Isn't there anyone from the 60% of us who are in the center would vote for and feel good about? Couldn't we imagine a more just left or right of center candidate winning?
2
@bernie W Notice that far-right conservatives never ask this question?
2
@bernie W
Hey, you seem to know. What is wrong with Leftists?
Trump will make more unsubstantiated claims of a rigged election results, even though evidence shows that once again the Russians tried to sway the election to him. He will also refuse to accept the election results like he had threatened in 2016. His 35% base will still support his lies regardless of the facts because it's about tribal allegiance, not facts or rules.
2
@AlexNYC
Yes. And this is precisely why the 2nd amendment exists.
1
@AlexNYC You lost in 2016. It’s time to get over it snowflake
Leonhardt's prediction has far less analytical support than Bret Stephens's. Sounds like it was slapped together in an hour or two. And Leonhardt does not address at all the results of the Mueller investigation. He wrote it just to produce an alternate outcome, not because he can justify it as more likely than the one Stephens writes about.
3
Only problem I saw was with Warren winning. The US is not ready for a female president yet. Holder as Pres with Warren as VP would be more winning combo. We can hope that Russia will turn on trump after he gets all mushy on putin. I can't help but wonder why he hasn't had a stroke or heart attack from all the anger & stress & frustration from things not going his way. If he would die from the stress & anger, then pence could be dealt with by a democratic majority.
1
I can totally see Elizabeth Warren as our next VP. The US electorate is a bit skittish, so let's not frighten them away entirely.
2
@Nostradamus Said So
I think you must mean that _you're_ not ready for a "female" president. By the way, we say "woman," not "female," when referring to candidates and human beings.
1
If Democrats want Trump to be re-elected in 2020, then Elizabeth Warren would be the fastest route to that outcome. I point you to her recent CNBC article where she implied that 90% marginal tax rates wouldn't, necessarily, be a bad thing. Even the rich liberals aren't going to vote for that. The Republican machine will be able to belittle Sen. Warren at every turn. Trump might even win a majority of the popular vote and more of the electoral college.
11
Andrew--I'm a Dem, and I agree. We need Warren in the Senate, where she will do the most good, for the people. Elizabeth, please reconsider, and put your estimable clout behind the best candidate.
10
Sen. Warren has repeatedly said she is not interested in becoming president and does indeed want to continue her work in the Senate. She is just being used by the Right as a scare tactic to energize their base.
@Andrew - Thank you Vlad for your counsel. However, your role as Mr. Trump's supervisor disqualifies you from commenting.
Trump still might lose, but the idea that he hasn't and won't fix anything just isn't supported by facts. Unemployment at record lows, GDP at record growth rates, foreign tariffs falling,....all he needs is falling crime rates and he starts to look like a political superhero, although a flawed one.
4
Like others have said, I also would prefer not to see any more 70-something Baby Boomers running for the Democratic nomination. Regardless of who it is (including Sanders), an old Boomer will lead to an enthusiasm gap by the end of the summer which leads to lower turnout and Trump/Pence's re-election. They also need to focus on the many non-partisan issues that are being left unclaimed, the biggest one being Infrastructure. If we're going to blow up the national debt, wouldn't it have been better to spend the money on Roads, Bridges and Public Transportation that truly benefit everyone?
7
I think the Bret Stephens' analysis is the more plausible. The biggest mistake people make when analyzing both the 2016 election and the current political climate is not realizing that Trump is a SYMPTOM not the cause of the current political climate. Yes Hillary was vastly unpopular, but WASHINGTON ITSELF was more unpopular than her. People have lost faith in Washington (with good reason), as well as political parties in general (Independents like myself are now a plurality). Trump's approval/disapproval numbers are essentially the same today as the day he was elected. Congress's approval numbers have been consistently WELL BELOW 20% FOR DECADES. That makes Trump more than twice as popular as anyone emerging from Congress. Smart money says he will be re-elected.
5
outstanding insights!!! thanks for sharing.
Mr. Leonhardt, I like your vision of the future better than Mr. Stephen's vision. Yours gives me hope that I can live out my life in the country of my birth. With Stephen's vision I will investigate how to obtain citizenship in the EU based on 2 of my grandparents birthplace.
One comment I have is that if Hillary was so unpopular, how come she had 3 million more votes even after Comey handicapped her voter turnout and the help trump received from Russian?
19
@Becky
I completely agree with your last part. People tend to forget that Hillary won the popular vote by 3 MILLION votes. She was somewhat unpopular in the states that mattered, the swing states. In any other country in the world Hillary would of been president for one simple reason: more people voted for her. Period.
The problem is, as long as the electoral college remains, my vote in Florida will matter more that your vote in California, and that is very very wrong!
18
@Gerry
Gerry, you forget your history. The electoral college rests on the premise to protect the Republic from the uninformed sentiments of the general population. Their idea was to have electors, chosen because of their level-headedness and wisdom, decide who should be president. Like it or not, that's the constitution.
Her popular vote majority is completely accounted for by her margin in the sanctuary State of California. Exclude California, she loses the popular vote as well
But by judging the election result by measurements contrary to those specified in the Constitution, you reject the Constitution itself.
5
Excellent!
You want to show how we can disagree and still live peacefully together?
We need more articles like this, from both perspective!
3
And on the Times sports page, the Mets win the 2018 World Series in six games.
7
Another scenario: Democrats flip the House in November 2018. Mueller shows convincing evidence of Donald Trump's Russian money laundering and collaboration with the Russians by his campaign. Even FOX news turns against him (hey, this is fiction, right?). Trump resigns, tweeting that he has been more mistreated than any President, ever, in return for a pardon by Pence, who takes over. He goes to Mara Lago, which suddenly has a lot fewer members paying exorbitant prices. Pence is so boring compared to Trump that he at first seems like a huge relief, but then the economy begins to go south. Attempts to fix the deficit and rising inflation make everyone unhappy. A new star (this is the big question mark) in the Democratic Party runs and wins against Pence.
27
How about:
Voters go to the polls in November 2018, but a cyberterrorist (who later turns out to have links to Russia) shuts down the power grid, if not nationwide, then in selected states, rendering the results of the election invalid. Trump declares martial law after rioting breaks out in the streets, blames antifa for the power shutdown and suspends elections for the near future, allowing the Republican majority in Congress to continue.
@Leslie M or— yes, Trump concocts a reason to resign and then moves to Russia (at their invitation) where he is paid handsomely to share all the information he gleaned during his stint as president.
As much as I'd like to believe your scenario, Mr. Stephens' view seems more realistic.
5
Entirely plausible, but overlooks - deliberately, no doubt - the equally plausible likelihood of Trump's indictment, impeachment and removal from office, all well before the election of 2020. Win/win!
13
@GWPDA Not going to happen (as much as I wish it would). Even if Democrats run the table in November (which they won't), they will end up with 57 Senators. It takes 67 to convict an impeached President. Do you really see 10 Republican Senators voting to remove Trump from office? There aren't 10 of them willing to criticize his obsequiousness toward Putin!
4
I like Elizabeth Warren a lot, and would vote for her in a heartbeat, but I'm not sure she's the strongest candidate. Trump will ridicule her mercilessly as "Pocahontas," and will use her apparently innocent mistake of believing (and perhaps capitalizing on) her family's lore of Native American ancestry to represent her as a wooley-headed liberal. Bernie Sanders is currently the most popular politician in America. Why not run him, in tandem with a younger VP (perhaps Warren herself), to capitalize on the current wave of populism? A Bernie-Warren regime will shake up the status-quo as much as Trump has, but in a good way, and even make use of Trump's destructiveness to bring in beneficial reforms and recalibrations.
2
@Robert Crosman
If you think Trump is going to ridicule Warren mercilessly, how do you think he's going to treat Bernie? Non-starter.
@Robert Crosman Hopefully, this is one time when the wishes of millions around the world will come true!!
I have a different view, and it doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is. It also assumes that Trump is still the president & I don't mean impeached & convicted. Conceivably he could be gone because of health issues, or the evidence against him for treason and/or money laundering is so compelling that he has to resign and then be pardoned by his successor. I think of a repeat of Gove vs. Bush with a sinister outcome. The day after Trump was inaugurated, he filed for re-election in 2020. I can't imagine him ever wanting to give up the power of the presidency. In 2020 Trump refuses to concede, says the election was rigged, Remember: he said this in 2016. One scenario: he sues and it goes up to the Supreme Court. Ginsburg & Breyer are gone, having been replaced by 2 more conservatives. The Court considers giving the election to Trump, while there are demonstrations reminiscent of the 1968 Democratic convention with riots in the streets perhaps being triggered by provocateurs sent in by those in the mold of Bannon . Trump federalizes the national guard, says rioting & looters are out of control and declares martial law. The Court declares the 2020 election invalid & gives it to Trump. Then what? Trump would love to be a ruler like Putin and the rest of the strongmen/dictators he admires.
6
@spc - Even this worst case scenario has one saving element. Trump could "declare martial law" till his belly was beat blue, but there is absolutely no world in which martial law would be imposed. None. At that stage in the game, the military would not accept any part in a Trumpist coup.
2
@spc
You will see us in the streets by the millions..."believe me"!
NICE!!
But I would rather see a moderate Gen-Xer at the top of the ticket.
I believe that Warren would have the fallout from "Hillary Hate" that lost her the election in 2016.
8
The shouts of "Pocahontas!" would drown out reasoned debate.
1
@Bi-Coastaleer in the Heartland
Yes! It's time for Gen X!
1
The weak-link in this argument:
"This year, however, third-party candidates won fewer votes, and Warren is on pace to clear 50 percent."
Look at the number of new voters in Florida...44% are third party.
2
It's weird to see Trumpists yelling at this article as a "liberal fantasy," that shows the paper's Trump Derangement Syndrome, when last week they published Stephens' article saying precisely the opposite about 2020, and linked to it right smack in the middle of this article.
I mean, Stephen's article on how Trump got re-elected is pretty plausible, and so is this one.
Ah, well. It's also weird to see Trumpists bellow about how much the GDP's improved when it's at the average Obama set while running better than 5% growth in two quarters, or about how the DPRK's "dismantling their nukes," which they're not, and all the rest of the litany.
I guess we're not allowed to look at facts (not real ones, anyway) and we're not allowed to do theory, either. Guess we'll have to go eat worms.
5
I lived in Georgia for almost two years, teaching English at a private university. Georgia loves Trump. They believe everything he says is true. They believe everything in the WP, NYT, and on CNN is fake news.
It does not matter what Trump does. With his two conservative nominations to the Supreme Court, Trump has answered the prayers of an evangelical heavy South that has ground their teeth over legal abortion for decades. Trump is playing these people--yes. But he's delivering more than enough for them to overlook any and all scandals forever. So, no, Trump will not lose in Georgia.
Please return in your memory to the 2016 election night. Remember when everyone was so surprised that Trump won? Remember when everyone thought, "how can this be?" It can be because there is a massive segment of the American population that disagrees with this newspaper. Let's face reality rather than wishing upon all the 50 stars.
14
Good advice, but also perhaps revisit big chunks of liberal policy? Abortion would be a great start, accept reasonable limits. there is clear scientific proof that all fetuses past 24 weeks are viable, that a fetus feels pain as early as 10 weeks, that they are unique genetically upon conception. Accept some limitations on abortion based on good science. Stop alienating huge chunks of the electorate needlessly with a dedication to lawlessness like ANTIFA, Occupy Wall Street, and black lives matter. Stop publishing article after article labeling Trump voter's as illiterate country bumpkins. Most of all slow the roll to the failed economic model of socialism. Democrat elites have lost touch with too much of America, reconnect with the other half of the country.
Loved Stephen's article but immediately wanted to see what the opposite opinion would look like. Nice!
3
I don't think Trump will even run in 2020.
Trump may be forced to resign before then; if not then I think Trump's best outcome would be leaving as an unindicted unimpeached 1-term president; nothing better than that is plausible.
Trump is facing another 2.5 years of continuing lawsuits, blunders, and disintegration of his administration. His defenses are already failing.
If Trump isn't taken out by some some bombshell he'll die of the ten-thousand cuts, and the fatigue and disengagement of his Republicans (as distinct from "Trumpers").
15
@Lee Harrison He's already raising money for his 2020 re-election campaign. That ship has sailed. He's running, whether it's a good idea or not.
The comments here say it all: 90% of them are Trump supporters who attack the NYT for this "fantasy" of a Trump loss. Apparently none of them have sufficient reading comprehension to understand that this is -- as plainly stated, in multiple places -- a specific response to last week's article 'reporting' on a Trump victory.
2
Democrats just don't have a vocal and well-known ( under age 70) candidate and the DNC seems to be invisible. Meanwhile, Trump will continue his childish political rallies and keep his base in the fold with attacks on the grandmas, Maxine, Elizabeth, Hillary, Nancy, etc., plus everyone else who doesn't bow before him.
2
Thanks! Bret Stephens did deserve an answer. I, too, picked Holder. It is important to have diversity on the ticket and there is no lack of qualified non-white candidates.
9
I think maybe the commenters criticizing the piece as liberal fantasy fluff should re-read the article, and see that it's in response to a piece on how Trump is going to be re-elected in 2020. Does the fantasy tag hold up?
2
Trump won't be on the ballot.
7
@Dog I like this vision of the future.
3
The article where he wins seemed way more likely, unfortunately.
2
From your keyboard to god's eyes.
16
2020?
Gee whiz!
Can we get past the midterm elections first, please?
5
I detest the way any article that mentions Trump shows us a picture of the ah, fellow. Can't the editors choose other photos to show--his opponents, critics, the disaster areas he's caused, other views. We all know what the fellow looks like. Enough already.
13
@Michael Simon: Thank you! I am also literally "sick" of seeing that hideous personage. He creeped me out since way back in the early 90s. It is even worse now...having to see and hear "it" constantly.
1
Just for the sake of good discussion, let’s analyze the opposite alternative how Trump might win the 2020 reelection bid.
It’s really not at all an intellectual effort, but more just a basic copy/paste activity.
Here is the report from today’s NYT by Jason Horowitz:
“Documents filed in the Manafort case claim that Alan Friedman, a former American journalist who is now influential in Italy, helped lobbying efforts in the U.S. and Europe on behalf of Ukraine.”
What does this mean?
That the foreign entities enlisted a help from the American citizens on behalf of Ukraine, thus pushing the USA in conflict with Russia on behalf of the third country.
I don’t follow closely the contemporary events, but several decades ago those activities would constitute an act of treason and creation of a spy network working on behalf of the foreign government.
If Robert Mueller had those documents available but failed to indict the involved individuals, then he might be a part of the same network of spies and subject to the legal prosecution.
It seems very confusing. It is really hard to dissect today who a traitor is and who a patriot.
Does it really dwindles down to the partisan loyalties and preferences?
If that’s the case, the American patriotism has died…
2
Just for the sake of good discussion, let’s analyze the opposite alternative how Trump might win the 2020 reelection bid.
It’s really not at all an intellectual effort, but more just a basic copy/paste activity.
Here is the report from today’s NYT by Jason Horowitz:
“Documents filed in the Manafort case claim that Alan Friedman, a former American journalist who is now influential in Italy, helped lobbying efforts in the U.S. and Europe on behalf of Ukraine.”
What does this mean?
That the foreign entities enlisted a help from the American citizens on behalf of Ukraine, thus pushing the USA in conflict with Russia to benefit the third country.
I don’t follow closely the contemporary events, but several decades ago those activities would constitute an act of treason and creation of a spy network working on behalf of the foreign government.
If Robert Mueller had those documents available but failed to indict the involved individuals, then he might be a part of the same network of spies and subject to the legal prosecution.
It seems very confusing. It is really hard to dissect today who a traitor is and who a patriot.
Does it really dwindle down to the partisan loyalties and preferences?
If that’s the case, the American patriotism has died…
From your lips, to God's ears.
5
@LeanneA
Hear! Hear!
Just for the sake of a good discussion, let’s analyze the opposite alternative how Trump might win the 2020 reelection bid.
It’s really not at all an intellectual effort, but more just a basic copy/paste activity.
Here is the report from today’s NYT by Jason Horowitz:
“Documents filed in the Manafort case claim that Alan Friedman, a former American journalist who is now influential in Italy, helped lobbying efforts in the U.S. and Europe on behalf of Ukraine.”
What does this mean?
That the foreign entities enlisted a help from the American citizens on behalf of Ukraine, thus pushing the USA in conflict with Russia on behalf of the third country.
I don’t follow closely the contemporary events, but several decades ago those activities would constitute an act of treason and creation of a spy network working on behalf of the foreign government.
If Robert Mueller had those documents available but failed to indict the involved individuals, then he might be a part of the same network of spies and subject to the legal prosecution.
It seems very confusing. It is really hard to dissect today who a traitor is today and who a patriot.
Does it really dwindles down to the partisan loyalties and preferences?
If that’s the case, the American patriotism has died…
And in other ginned-up right-wing conspiracy news....
1
Do you want a pathological liar as your president? Trump promised to bring your jobs back to America and you believed him. It won't happen because the Republicans used him as a shill to lie and betray you. Too bad.
9
The other article was more in tune with reality and far more likely to be published in 2020.
2
If the Democrats lose it will be due to their having become the War Party.
The Democrats want military confrontation with a nuclear power, Russia.
The American people do not. Even Trump is better than World War Three!
Right, and I suspect Mr. Leonhardt was convinced that H. Clinton had a 90% chance winning the 2016 presidential election.
2
What happens to Manafort, Cohen,Kim Jong-un ,the Muller investigation ,the 2018 midterm elections ,the tax wars , China , Russia , Iran ?
What’s the use of parody when real life drama and comedy is so breathtaking?
4
Wishful thinking David. Trump's in until 2024! It'll be a landslide! Suggest you and others in the MSM get out of your Democrat bubble wrap and get into the real world!
6
Warren would lose to Trump. She is another corporate Democrat.
On the other hand, Sanders would beat Trump like a rug.
To defeat Fascism, you need Socialism.
2
@Red Allover she’d lose to him only if people (like you?) continue to judge candidates based on political purity. That’s not how Trump was elected — numerous analyses indicate people held their nose & voted for him anyway in service of their greater goals: the Supreme Court and taxes. But at least you get to go to bed each night feeling pious, amirite?
1
On the contrary, if the Democrats nominate a Clinton clone they will lose once again. And deservedly. Nothing could be more impractical & pie in the sky then nominating another corporate Biden/Warren Democrat & counting on distaste for Mr. Trump to win the election. That would absolutely guarantee defeat.
If 2020 is going to be a contest of Base vs. Base, you had better give your base a reason to turn out. When the Democrats stop talking about Russia and start talking about fighting the destruction of the US Labor movement, then they will be winners again.
Nice piece of delusional fiction. Keep dreaming.
2
So now The Times is so obsessed (we know you are) with Trump that you’re covering him in the future but even you don’t have the nerve to write his obituary. Do you? Do you?
@Pablo, most newspapers have pre-written obits filed for notable persons. This saves time in having to research and verify facts in a person's past on what is likely to be a tight deadline. All that needs to be done is a few paragraphs at the top with the information on the death, and it is ready to publish.
We dont need a proxy for Putin!
1
What a ridiculous article.. NYTimes columnists are already prepping for the big liberal victory in 2020..?? --Sounds like the same sort of clueless nonsense they were spewing out before the 2016 election.
The Times is starting to have a Groundhog Day feel to it.. everyday it's the same, predictable Trump obsession...coupled with breathless fantasies of the rising liberal lions. - -When in reality Democrat have been sinking in the mud for years, but the Times fails to have anything to say about that..
7
NYT: Why on earth would you begin publishing “fake news?” Have you completely lost your minds? Or are you still just that out of touch?
3
@CCCINMD, Sadly this is the kind of voter our country is producing.- one who can't even recognize the difference between an opinion column and a news article.
3
Elizabeth Warren defeating Trump? Wow. The NYT has learned *nothing* from 2016. Nada, niete, zilch. The mainstream liberal media just. does. not. get. it.
7
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO......
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO..............
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO............................
2
To the NYT: Delete this piece permanently and don't publish any more like it. This is more than smug and presumptuous. It's the type of thinking that helped us not to prevail in 2016. By the way - Elizabeth Warren and Geoffrey Holder are NOT a winning ticket.
7
....what a waste of news print - what's going to happen in 2020. Mr. Leonhardt is hard pressed for news.
1
Still don't get it: Its ALL ABOUT THE UNDECIDED VOTE... NOT your friends in the next cubicle over in your echo chamber...
Get over it, the country is in a left > right paradigm shift on a order of magnitude that is far and beyond your office cube...........
4
@MeMadMax Do you think everyone works in an office cubicle? Now THAT’S a bubble!
2016 Donald Trump will be out of the debates in a few weeks,...Donald Trump will never win the primary,.....mark my word,..Donald Trump will never,.ever become President of the United States of America,....the thought of it makes me giggle! Dear God,..how did this happen!???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2eUopy9sd8
2020 Donald Trump will be out of the debates in a few weeks,...Donald Trump will never win the primary,.....mark my word,..Donald Trump will never,.ever become President of the United States of America,....the thought of it makes me giggle!
2
More wishful thinking by the NYT wishful thinkers......The Blue Wave was a Washout........Start asking Joe 6-Pack what he thinks and.....Liberal's, Stay on the East Coast where you all think alike!!!!
2
@Richard Frey Maybe Joe Six Pack should read more books based on evidence based research and drink one or two less beers. The totalitarian tactic of constant lies to prevent actual reality from penetrating the minds of the gullible believers in fairy tales is a much bigger issue than one mendacious ignorant president. The man did not win the popular vote. The Electoral College must go, it is obsolete and harmful. The coast dwellers you hate chose candidates that would not have done the colossal damage that W and Trump have done and in Trump's case, still doing. Now, like an infant, he throws his 1000th tantrum, making more threats about a shutdown. Infant as president. Keep drinking that beer , Montana, making your fabulous contribution to the health of the nation.
2
Yeah, right. The NYT also imagined that Hillary won the presidency, too. Both are fantasies of deranged Leftists with no connection to reality.
3
This is just cruel but usual punishment from Leftists onto SnowFlakes. Getting their hopes up again is beyond water-boarding or sleep deprivation torture techniques...
2
Instead of "All the news that is fit to print", the new Times motto is "All the fairy tales fit for a bubble".
6
Wow. This fantasy should be decorated with stars and unicorns along in its headline.
Warren will NEVER win against Trump. Never.
This narrative keeps feeding the notion that Americans are flocking to support ideas of the socialist democratic left. I guess there are reasons for that, after all out of all 435 seats there are a dozen or two with that inclination. A far cry from a liberal turn.
We have extrapolated our liberal bubbles to the rest of the country. Primary races are about to start. We have an opportunity to educate about the importance of regional perspectives and to understand that for the big 2020 we need to COMPROMISE.
Every election is a binary selection. In a country with a real democratic slant we would have a two level election, just to underline that fact.
Nowhere in the Constitution it is spelled out that elections should be done in one fell swoop. This is achievable. To abolish the Electoral College is absolutely a farfetched objective.
But then again we live in the time of disarticulated ideologies, the only block that remains not shattered is the block of simple divisive rhetoric, and it is the far right that holds the cards.
We need to learn to coexist with people of different backgrounds, races, and AGES.
Older citizens have to bear in mind the needs of younger generations, younger ones need to understand that experience is not useless.
It seems we cannot see the forest for the trees. Before getting to the left we need to get to the center.
4
Trump Derangement Syndrome Stage 4 At this point articles like this only troll liberals.
5
To Sab: I wholeheartedly agree with you. The next Democratic Presidential nominee needs to be under 65, preferably under 60, behind whom a broad spectrum of Democrats will unite. Also, someone with requisite political, legislative and managerial experience to perform well in an exceedingly complicated and influential job. If nothing else, D. Trump has provided a dizzying play by play of the dire consequences to our nation and the world when an unprepared and constitutionally unfit person is allowed to take over the helm.
6
One thing that David might have missed here is a comparison with Bret Stephens' assumption of a DJIA of 30000 prior to the 2020 election. This would have required lower interest rates, and lower inflation. Why is this important? 401K's, of course. The stock market will be a control variable for white suburbanites, which are said to be the swing voting group. DJIA at 30000? All the males and 30-40% of the females vote for Trump. DJIA below 21000, maybe from the natural business cysle and trade wars? 40% of the suburban males and 65% of the females vote for anyone else. Not to say that real wages aren't important, but stagnant wages could be countered for many in the lower middle class with a Mexican wall. The suburban middle and upper middle class see the 401K as their Mexican wall.
What is centrist politically in most capitalist democracies is here labeled extreme, and off the table politically. Politicians and the media watch their step, ignorning what polls show Americans want, instead listening to the norms that are set by the big donors to our elections.
Medicare for all has been centrist for generations in most capitalist democracies.
They do not turn over their elections to the richest donors or have supreme courts telling them that big money donations are free speech.
The US once had low cost or free tuition in state colleges as centrist policy, and this is what helped create our once strong middle class, along with unions, and govt regulations on big business.
Now college tuition, with debt over a trillion, is a profit center, like health care. Unions and regulations have been weakened, so big business profits calls the shots.
H care, unions, low cost educaton and training---these stark contrasts with other nations and our own past are nowhere to be found on TV cable news 24/7 punditry, or in NY Times columns.
The positive role models with evidence that they offer, should be publicized and debated in a democracy. Our media, so proud of its 1st amendment protections against govt censorship, isn't doing its job to inform voters on the issues crucial to their lives.
14
@Meredith
Absolutely correct and on point! Thank you for articulating this. And Dems must get out of the bubble and be more realistic and less fractious or we will continue to miss the opportunity to move the country forward. The far-right prefers the mythic white-settler past of conestoga wagons and black powder rifles, and are skillfully manipulated by big donors who pull on those old story strings. We are many decades beyond this.
3
In 1948, New York City had 32 free municipal hospitals, education was provided free of charge from grade one to Ph.D., commercial (store) rents were controlled and limited, as were residential rents (there were few homeless) and the subway fare was 10 cents, nominal even then.
Our economy has expanded vastly since then. Why could we afford giving workers these things back then, but cannot now?
1
As Brent Staples pointed out recently, even in the most profound movements for change there is much intrigue, betrayal and acting on unexamined prejudice and bigotry. At times decisions are made to sacrifice one group of people to gain something for another. And this is true of some of the most extraordinary people, brave, visionary, people who are willing to make major personal sacrifices. As decent as they are David and Bret Stephens are far from those type of people. They are very much captives of the system, always operating within the narrow parameters that the society permits. And so they are willing to sacrifice far more people for much more modest and often enough destructive ends. In either case though it is the most vulnerable and the most despised that are abandoned and betrayed. And there is some shock and anger and disbelief when those people fight back.
1
You're assuming that he'll still be in office in 2020. I'm hoping that his whole administration is facing prison time. The same goes for every GOP senator who signed that traitorous letter to Iran. They have not acted in a manner befitting patriots or adults. Their sole concern has been the accumulation of power and nothing else.
14
This is just the most imaginary thing . you guys imagined the polls and fooled yourselves in 16 . now you imagine the Russia thing. Then you imagine President Warren? Awesome. But I think her running mate will be Suzy Orman. Eric Holder will only run on a ticket with Anthony Weener. Keep up the fantasy . LOL
3
Wishful thinking or fake news...
3
"Hope"
You liberals really are good at dreaming... but you fail miserably at reality. Liberals just don't get it..the real "Resistance" already happened. The economy is booming, N Korea is dismantling nukes, people are bring more money home through tax cuts and such low unemployment that the employers know they will have trouble hiring anything... except a graduate of a liberal arts school who can't do anything.
TDS = Trump Derangement Syndrome & it is rampant in the liberals.
7
@mucklucky please share with the class your thoughts about a deficit over a trillion dollars. The amount of the deficit really mattered to “you guys” when a Democratic was in the WH. Also we’d love to know how much your wages have increased (according to reports, they haven’t). And what you’ll do when your tax cuts expire in 2025. So, please — we’re all ears (eyes). Enlighten us!
2
One YUUUUGE! difference between Hillary and Elizabeth Warren: There has been no 30-year smear campaign by the right against Warren that allows garbage attacks like BENGHAZI!!! and PRIVATE EMAIL SERVER!!! to stick to Warren. Take away the "Arkansas Project" against Hillary and the impact of those charges would have been much less.
6
@Garak
The GOP will find something to use to destroy Elizabeth Warren. John Kerry is a decorated war hero who'd served as a U.S. Attorney, Lt. Governor of Massachusetts and United States senator from 1985 to 2013. Kerry then served as Secretary of State. No hint of scandal or corruption has ever attached to John Kerry. But by the time the Republicans were through pounding Kerry in the 2004 campaign with sleazy campaign operatives "SWIFT BOAT VETERANS FOR TRUTH," their narrative on Kerry was that he was a liar and traitor who had fabricated his war injuries and caused men he led in Vietnam to be killed. Their lies about Kerry were jaw-droppingly crazy. And yet enough stupid people believed those lies for Kerry to lose to W. in the middle of the Iraq War! Never underestimate the depths to wish the GOP will sink, Lee Atwater style, to destroy a Democratic opponent. Any lie that will stick, no matter how grotesque or insane. Remember that Obama was born in Kenya? That John McCain had an illegitimate black child? There's no end to the garbage the GOP will make up to win an election.
1
Yes, From the same NYT that predicted him losing the 2016 election. Still out of touch, still in the bubble.
5
If only this could be this November’s news,
1
Things that seem obvious to me about the GOP:
The ‘base’: crackpot white evangelical churchgoers; gun worshippers; the “sovereign citizen” guvmint hatin’ libertarian set; white supremacists; ill educated/ semi-literate/ ignorant and angry whites; nativists; ‘conservatives’ who are radically destructive; ‘family values’ proponents finding a way to express their cruelty, especially toward children. Add more casual enablers from the middle class who harbor a resentment or two, or have a notion that voting for ‘a business man’ is good for them.
That, roughly speaking, represents all that is weak and regressive about America. But who do the republicans really serve, beside themselves? Certainly not the Base. For the answer, just look at how it is attempting to turn government into a funnel to move their wealth offshore, away from taxes, away from 'the people', meanwhile creating a blizzard of distraction to cover it up. Then there's Fearless Leader, who represents money without national affiliation. The Russians found him offshore, in the laundry. They and the Base made a floundering buffoon President, propelled low rodent cunning, a foul mouth and a terror of the truth, which chases him constantly like Capn. Hook’s croc. Putin has a laser focus on the GOP, America’s main point of vulnerability, the realization of Joe McCarthy’s vision, a body infested. Hello Maria Butina.
It’s time to break this thing apart with the weight of a massive majority. The numbers are there.
7
@Angstrom Unit
Your "I know best what's good for you" attitude is what dooms your side to the ashbin. Painting the opposition as such merely turns people off to what you offer. The opposition is tired of your character representations of them and will respond at the ballot box.
1
TRUMP LOSES !!
(Washington, 4, 2020, Reutcanal, AarP, C'NNotwork). President Donald Trump boarded a plane for stops in North Korea's booming resort area, the Russia/US collaborative gas/oil/manufacturing center and Iran/Disney after a brief concession speech, "knock yourselves out" to the winning Waters, Booker ticket,
2
"President-elect Elizabeth Warren" ... will never happen. You guys are dreaming. The good thing about this article is that it continues to deny reality, keeps the libs from shifting to policies that voters will support vs pure anti-Trump hate. Comical, just comical. ...
2018 will be the first sign of failure for your partisan journalism.
6
What a cute little piece of fiction. I'm betting this fiction writer thought Hillary had that POTUS seat in the bag, too. He's very good at writing fiction. Dreaming. Don't let reality spoil your dreams.
4
Ha ha... This article says more about why he'll win and about how out of touch the fake news media still is about their lost ability to control the narrative and how we think. Elizabeth Warren even... My goodness. Give it up media. People you've lost can never return and that number grows every day with the help of your lies, manipulation, and crackpot conspiracy theories
4
Anybody with a “D” behind their name is better than the first traitor for the Russians to sit in the White House! Mueller will also take Trump out this coming year!
6
Comey is too Aspergers to host a talk show.
2
Amazing. Trump now has the left so desperate that the NYT is publishing election fantasy.
The true fantasy - Russia - isn't working out well for you and the economy is making a mockery of the left's doom and gloom predictions. President Warren? Laughable.
6
@Gringo So I guess you didn't read last week's "election fantasy" in which Trump won? I guess Trumpsters aren't known for parsing the fine print.
5
Pathetic...I remain convinced that the NYTs firmly contributed to the election of this Dolt by way of your paper's ongoing assertion that Trump would lose....there was even a daily percentage ticker that had the likelihood of a Hillary win at 80%in the days beforehand....I've no doubt that this kind of nonsense contributed to less folks voting that might have otherwise turned out. ....This man, this Beast, will not relinquish his hold on power without a fight unlike anything we've seen in recent history....pushed into a corner, God only knows what he'll do...My money is on him going 2 and maybe 3 terms...I'm annoyed I read this...
6
>
He won't run if he thinks the American people will fire him. He'll say I've fixed everything big, big, best, best.....and move back to NYC.
He is not going to get on the other side of you are fired.
The public and world-wide humiliation would be too much for him and his ego to handle. It would be a complete refutation of his entire life. The voices in his head would say you're a loser, the Dems outsmarted you.
The only thing that can put DJT back in the WH is Dem tomfoolery, which we have plenty of.
Warren will not be POTUS anymore than Bernie or Harris.
America is a business; Sweden is a country.
2
A dream devotely to be wished.
1
Remember the election-meter NYT had that predicted a Hillary Clinton win?
4
You know, you folks'd be a lot more worthy of serious consideration if you all didn't chant the same claims in unison. Be helpful if you took at stats class or at least read something like Cohn's or Silver's excellent intros to what polls are, what they do, and what they don't do.
For openers, they do not "predict." They collect numbers, and they publish them. If they're good polls, they attach explanations of how the poll was done, what questions got asked, what the margins of error/statistical confidence levels were, and so on.
And then at times, guys like Cohn explain the PROBABILITY of given outcomes. Insurers, medical researchers, auto designers and so in, do this all the time.
They do not predict individual outcomes. If you think they do, you haven't a clue.
So as much as I 'preciate the efforts of Trumpists to bellow everybody else into silence and submission, come on already.
7
@Robert OK, fair enough. Please explain HOW the NYT’S prediction was SO off, going from a 90%+ chance of HRC winning to her eventual loss?
when i got to the part about president-elect Liz Warren i realized it was a comedy.!!!!!! lol Liz Warren -- pres elect. i laugh every time i hear it !!!!
Thanks for the laugh
2
You peoples delusional state of mind is more fun than watching kitten videos... The VAST majority of the people WHO PAY TAXES and MAKE THIS COUNTRY RUN are VERY HAPPY with our President... Good luck... you'll need it.
6
I would much prefer that NY Times leftists wallow in the fantasy world of pieces like this rather than riot after they lose more elections as reality bites.
The sad fact is that it's hard to sell hate 24/7 and think you'll benefit from it. So the Times should start a whole new series like this, an alternative universe series of news and opinion pieces that encourages leftists to pretend that they win all elections in America.
6
You guys still ... don't ... get ... it
Nice work of fiction though.
2
I am tired of these "fan fiction" type of analyses. Is this what journalism is now? Pretend? Maybe the NYT writers should start dressing in political cosplay too. I expect better.
3
Is NYT even bothering to hide bias and TDS at this point? Have whatever opinion you want but projecting failure for the POTUS - whomever it may be - seems rather petty and biased.
2
@Mick Russom It's a response to an opinion piece, also published by the NYT, about why Trump would win in 2020.
6
How sad. Now the left has resorted to writing fiction in the opinion section somehow hoping that it will all come true.
4
@john Pssst. You skimmed too quickly and missed the context. The resulting symbolism offers us (sane centrists) no comfort.
1
Perhaps this sells newspapers but it a total waste of my time. This is clearly fake news.
2
"His approval rating hasn’t approached 50 percent since he took office, and neither did his share of the vote this year."
----> Nor did his share of the vote in 2016!
See fairvote.com.
Ranked choice voting, perspicaciously and providentially enacted this year in Maine OVER THE OBJECTIONS OF THEIR ELECTED LEADERS who can now less easily game their races, allows thoughtful people to vote their conscience without having to throw the election to their favorite Melendez brother. (See: Ralph Nader 2000; Jill Stein 2016.)
Why are you ignoring Sharrod Brown?
1
Dream on!
2
A girl can dream
This is hysterical.
Let’s remember to republish this tripe a few days after the ‘20 election, right after Trump wins 49 states against the Democrat “Leftist Kook of the Year” candidate.
7
Barely halfway through 2018 - already at least half the NYT 2020 opinion pieces on Trump are fake!!!
What's next - that he groped his 2020 opponent at their second debate, during a commercial break???
More likely game-changers...
> Putin, thoroughly dazzled and befuddled by Trump's artful dodgery, offers to sell the Ukraine to the US for $7M, which we quickly accept (though McCain wanted to hold out till the mortgage was approved and inspection complete) - and four other eastern EU states follow in deciding to join the now-long-since-great-again US...
> We make a late-season trade of Puerto Rico for Ireland, and three newly-formed volcanic atolls to be named later...
> China upsets the world order by building 9/8-sized clones of the Hawaiian Islands off the coast of Oregon, and does the same for Jersey and Guernsey in a new channel dug through Scotland...Luxembourg and Belgium barely escape being 9/8-cloned - by offering the aggressors a worldwide exclusive license to produce fake European luxury goods - shaking the EU to its core...
.....
Perhaps the latter part of this should've been sent to your tip line...
Though it's probably a fake tip line...
2
Elizabeth Warren !!! OMG !!!
I'd rather have Hilary LOL.
If Ms. Warren proves her DNA is Native American, OK, otherwise just another character treading water in the swamp.
1
Preparing the next generation falls to the elders. Unfortunately in this respect, Republicans have been more strategic. Where is the deep bench, the mix of impressive Democrats? Especially when running against a Black Swan, once-in-a-lifetime, Trump - we need a stellar Democratic line-up.
1
Corey Booker would be an attractive candidate. If HRC had chosen him as Vice-President she probably would have won the election. I think she was afraid that he would lose his Senate seat. Better to lose that seat but win the election.
1
You guys are delusional.
Trump has created more wealth and growth on his first two years than the last president did in eight.
He is finally inching us closer towards a reciprocal trade policy.
Has finally inched us closer to a sustainable immigration polict
He has made incredible progress towards peace in Korea.
His opposition has banked all their chances on the public buying into various conspiracy theories such as that he is a Russian manchurian candidate, a nazi, or whatever other silly nonsense libs are babbling about. In the rate instanxe when yiu xan axtually get a liberal to stop namecalling and actually talk about policy they say they want to abolish all immigration police or garuntee everyone a government job.
The left is freaking out...
7
@Joe, you state that DJT created more wealth already than Obama did in 8; that is a patently false claim. There is no support for that. So far the Trump economy has been primarily a continuation of the Obama one but now, because of his tariff war, the economy will lose the momentum it has had since 2010-11. The fact you would make up an unsubstantiated assertion out of thin air, does tell me one thing: your attention and concern for being fact-based is no different than that of Trump.
8
There are lots of derisive comments here that fail to take into account that is is a companion piece to Bret Stephens's speculative fiction, "How Trump Won Re-election in 2020." Yes, this article is one-sided...and the Times published the other side last week.
Both Mr. Leonhardt and Mr. Stephens offer plausible scenarios and it will be interesting to see whose predictions are more accurate.
Now, my own choice for a candidate who could take down Trump is Joe Biden, who announces at the outset that he will run for a single term with Cory Booker or Kamala Harris as a running mate. He'll then give his VP a deep portfolio and joined-at-the-hip access, grooming him or her as a successor.
7
The hatred the losing side show towards the winning side is evident... The president is the president of the entire country, not a divided one.... become inclusive... be part of America by leaving your hatred for American success behind and become a great American ... someone on the Left has to rise up for America... it cant be the club of destruction...
4
@Laurie Trump certainly does not act like president of all the people.
7
@Bonnie Trump is not acting as president... He Is the president. It is not Trump that has divided the country... It is Trump that wants us to come together... It is the MSM on all sides, Fox to MSNBC and CNN that chose to divide Americans by the repetitive diversion away of great we really are ... I hope a qualified champion of the democrat party rises to the challenge so all Americans can row the boat in the same direction to greatness...
I wrote a similar peice in the Brattleboro Reformer a few months back - not to say you were scooped, more like great minds...My fantasy though went further afield in T's disgrace and his escalator ride of shame back up into Trump tower or his very own Mar-A-Elba. Though of us who've yet to exhale since Nov 2016 look with hope to the future as it is the only thing we've got that feels stable. T's chaos has infected the entire country. As within, so without.
2
From Mr. Leonhardt's keyboard to God's ear.
Both he, and Mr. Stephens, who shows "how Trump won," recognize that if the Dems focus like a laser beam on economics for the middle class, and economic fairness, while avoiding taking the poison pill of left-wing identity politics, they win.
1
Oh if only....
Regret to inform but Warren isn't the way forward. Having her as the Democrat's standard bearer plays right in to the Republican's master plan. They will shred her with whatever they can, lies & fabrications mostly and serve it up to the base as Pocahontas on a platter. She is much more useful right where she is.
The real hope is that the Republicans get fed up enough for some one to mount a primary challenge and give the party an actual choice. I really think someone like Nikki Haley could win the nomination just by being y'know, not insane.
If that happens it would level the playing field and get the debate back to the very real issues that face us all. The Dem's would have a shot in that arena. As it stands I don't see anyone who is going to be able to rise above the Orange Bluster.
It will also help if the media gets over the fascination with shiny objects and click bait. Y'all gave Trump way too much free press in 2016. Try to restrain yourselves and focus on what's important and true.
3
23 de Octubre de 2016
New York Times tweets:
"Hillary has a 93% chance to win"
"Hillary Clinton 93%, Donald Trump 7%".
This article clearly shows you guys never learn.
4
@Julian you missed the first three lines:
"Last week, my colleague Bret Stephens imagined a news article on the morning after President Trump’s re-election. Today, I imagine a different outcome."
This is a response to the article from last week - an imagination, not a prediction.
3
If you can get people to believe this, it just might work, because the Dems REAL agenda of straight up socialism, preaching that capitalism must go, shutting down free speech, relentless identity politics, open borders, sanctuary cities, abolishing ICE, raising taxes, more regulation, weaker defense, leading from behind, continually slamming half the country as evil, stupid, xenophobic, misogynist racists, chumming up to the radical agenda(s) of Black Lives Matter, CAIR, Antifa, third wave feminists, the lunatic PC wing of the party, WORSE relations with Russia, screaming at people you disagree with in public and encouraging others to do the same, is a recipe for political suicide. And endlessly calling President Trump every name in the book will get you precisely where it's gotten you so far.....nowhere.
Here's a suggestion....Put America and Americans first (I can’t believe this is a controversial concept), and maybe then your guy or gal or transgender or gender neutral, candidate, will oust the loathed and dreaded Trump, and the left can begin to build a progressive, multicultural utopia of hugs, rainbows, unicorns and safe-spaces for everyone near the Big Rock Candy Mountain. Good luck.
3
Elizabeth Warren as presidential candidate is no different than Hillary Clinton as the candidate. Both elicit strong negative emotions from a large part of the populace. Warren's claim to be Native American would be exploited and she will be made to look like a liar and fraud. I hink most Americans need some comfort and normalcy, Joe Biden would offer that. I think Corey Booker would be a great VP candidate and would get out the much needed minority vote.
6
"The exception is George W. Bush, who benefited from being a wartime president."
Uh, don't give Trump any ideas...
10
Not too sure about the Elizabeth Warren /Eric Holder part ( really, is this country capable of putting another Black man in the White House so soon after Donald Trump's racist reign of white supremacy?), but the rest sounds pretty bang on.
Though, no mention about Robert Mueller and the Russian investigation...what gives?
So the Times does engage in fake news ... if the dems sweep in 2018 Trump won't be around, his Republican "friends" will force him to resign, threatening to impeach him .... with incumbent Pence on the ballot - if the Republicans keep control of both Houses too many of us will be in internment camps by 2020
Touché, well done!
1
Trump will win 2020 because
1. His base still trust him.
2. Republican have no interest in getting rid of as the status quo of the government is very lucrative the republican.
3. Demo rats have done nothing conspicuous to win an average voter.
4. Lots rich progressive do not mind making money in the stock market which they have in past 18 months which has brought lots of complacency.
5
I thoroughly subscribe to David Leonard’s 2020 electoral scenario, except that I believe Trump will be impeached and convicted in 2019. As for Bret Stevens, his real message is that he despises Trump, and for good reason, but he wishes Democrats started to behave like a conservative Republican of his persuasion as the only way to defeat Trump and guarantee and outcome to his liking. While I admire Bret Steven’s courage and honesty, he has not come around to the understanding that inequality is at the heart of today’s quagmire.
"The exception is George W. Bush, who benefited from being a wartime president."
Maybe that is why Trump is so eager to start some wars, including trade wars. Creating enemies is a time honored method to consolidate your base and to scare oppositions.
A lot of your readers may not be able to wait until 2020, never mind if Pence is any better. Considering he has become a Stepford VP - the water bottle event might be funny to some but downright scary to others - would a President Pence consult Trump even if the latter were impeached and dethrone? Made possible when the GOP lost both houses? Time will tell in less than 4 months.
2
@Bos
As much as Trump horrifies me, I think it's fair to point out that he doesn't seem eager to start wars. His base doesn't want more foreign wars, either. Hillary, on the other hand, was a hawk who, by her own admission was very interested in jumping hip deep into Syria to support "the moderate rebels" there. Obama started wars in Lybia, supported the atrocious on-going Saudi assault on Yemen, fought drone wars throughout Pakistan, and "mini-wars" in Africa.
It's time we accept the fact that the establishments of both major parties are hawks, unfortunately.
13
@Livonian says "trump doesn't seem eager to start wars".
He certainly boosted the amount of money we waste on the military though! He gave the military industrial complex an _extra_ $716 Billion for 2019.
With that amount of money, the Pentagon will be glad to go and find their own war. And they will.
Although opposed by a vocal portion of the wealthy investor class, in the end, Warren was able to win over the working class folks in the heartland, when she used her considerable knowledge and teaching skills to explain how the system has been rigged to favor the investor class at the expense of ordinary workers and consumers. Her portrayal of Donald Trump as a prime example of how the wealthy can manipulate the law to their advantage rattled many, to be sure who feared she had gone "too far", but in the end, those people represent a small fraction of the voting electorate, and the large turnout she inspired gave her the edge.
6
Aside from having clear understandable plans about what to do with the economy, international trade and national security the Dem candidate should also not flinch from attacking the Man at a personal level. Point out that he is a liar, an ignoramus and a criminal. A thoroughly unelectable, unqualified narcissist.
2
This fan fiction is laughable at best
1
Aaand. . . .here we are again, in the last week of October 2016. Only the names have changed, but the thought process is still the same. "Me and all of my friends agree that (Insert Name Here) is the clear winner of the election, so it must be true!!"
Two reminders:
There is more to the country than the NE corridor and Coastal California.
Its the economy, stupid!
1
Should there not be an ongoing story everyday on the front page of The Times examining the truth about Trump? This as I watch All The Presidents Men on MSNBC.
Elizabeth Warren, Eric Holder...yawn, yawn, yawn. How about Jeff Bezos and his running mate Melinda Gates? A self funded presidential campaign headed by a visionary (Bezos) and a globalist (Gates).
2
What is it in Sulzberger land that fosters such urban-centric hubris? Trump was elected to protect America's best traditions and institutions from further destruction by the socialist wannabes in the DNC. Trump doesn't have to be likeable - we hired him to combat the intolerant hate-filled mobs that are (these days) the hallmark of metro-centric bigotry.
2
A slogan for 2020: Don and the Putinettes - Grating on America
2
Whatever happens, Trump is willfully out to wreak as much havoc as possible. The only thing that matters to Trump is to have his way. Trump is a very sick person.
2
‘I had a dream’
David, you wasted your time with this piece.
The NYT already wrote that story and had it ready for November 10, 2016.
I saw the advanced draft and your piece looks to be the same.
No matter, you can probably keep your column as a curiosity in the same place in which the NYT Trump obituary for November 10, 2016 is stored.
2
Porn for the lovelorn of policy, an ineffectual fallacy.
Wishful thinking David Leonhardt.
And, actually, I wish he were out before 2020 but he won't be. And in the coming election, the LeftyLeft will once again put forth a candidate with unrealistic views about gun control in America, and partly because this paper is similarly unrealistic. And the LeftyLeft will once again put forth a candidate who thinks all tax paying Americans should adopt 7-10 people from a 3rd world country as dependents just because they set foot (illegally) in this country. And the LeftyLeft will once again fail to find a candidate who actually knows ANYTHING about jobs, or trade. It's really unfortunate the Dem's are so beguiled by the LeftyLeft. It's already July 2018... too late for anyone among the Dem's to build any reasonable challenge to the Great Orange Self. But, maybe... just maybe... media sources like this one can begin to write about, educate Americans in a useful way... pathological narcissism... so that our country can claw its way out of this ignorant morass.
2
This is from the same insightful newspaper that predicted a 93% chance of a Hillary win.
Trump won't win the re-election in the New York Times newsroom, but he will win re-election.
I am no Trump supporter, but I dislike bias journalism even less, and that is what the Times has devolved into.
1
Just got through reading the AP article featuring A.G.Sulzberger, pleading President Trump to quit calling the NYT fake news. Now I’m reading a fantasy piece about Trump loosing to the likes of Liz Warren. Please D’s run her. It’ll be a repeat of Reagan-Mondale. She’ll carry MA and DC.
The RNC has its problems, but it pails in comparison to the DNC.
3
How about Amy Klobuchar Mn Senator
3
Your writer, as well as a number of your readers (judging by their comments) still don’t seem to understand why he was elected in the first place... But, I get it... Fantasies don’t have to have rules, right? That’s why they’re fantasies!
1
Sorry that the editors choose to only post comments from those suffering from TDS. Face it, you had a flawed candidate and you lost. My God we would be in such trouble if HRC had won. Gives me nightmares.
@Chuck One man's nightmare is another man's dream.
1
And Hillary won in 2016!
3
If we keep calling the 63 million Trump voters racists and fascists, that will go a long way to get them to things our way.
1
Hahaha. This is like Ground Hog day all over again. "I am 100 percent sure Donald Trump will not be President."
1
Because The Times is so good at predicting elections, I'll just leave this here for your enjoyment.
http://tinyurl.com/j2larrd
2
Eric Holder for VP? That Eric Holder?
How about a quick reprise to go along with Leonhardt's sneak peek.?
On 28 November 2008, an NYT column remembered that as he was fleeing the White House at the end of his term, Bill Clinton followed this very Eric Holder's advice, and pardoned Marc Rich.
Rich was a billionaire, and a 17-year fugitive from Justice for a series of charges for which Clinton, apparently, felt that the poor man had suffered enough.
The charges included: 65 counts of defrauding the I.R.S., mail fraud, tax evasion, racketeering, defrauding the Treasury and trading with the enemy.
It would seem that Eric is as compassionate as Bill, which might be the reason he was selected as Warren's running mate.
Enough? Or should we go on to the Blue Scold?
Wanna putta little money on your ticket?
1
There's just no ring of truth to this at all. Poorly written predictable and nothing like it might actually appear should these events come to pass.
In the first paragraph you lost ALL credibility, Donald Trump's approval ratings were over 50% during the North Korea meetings. Even in liberal fantasies they can't keep their lies straight.
1
Warren, eh?
Democrats want to lose again, huh?
4
With nothing but hopelessness and despair the Trump hating left is stuck fantasizing.
1
Sung to the tune of ‘In the Year 2525’
In the Year 2020, the New York Times hopes to be alive; if journalism can survive, they may find...
1
You liberals are just wishing how terrible The economy doing good minorities are at the lowest unemployment rate in history trump is such a terrible guy donates all his presidential pay to charity ! I'm never seen people hate a president so much over nothing Besides beating Hillary ! Sour grapes !
1
It’s very simple. Democrats are on the wrong side of immigration and unfettered entry if illegals. Till then they will lose, even to a defective candidate like Trump.
Wishful thinking.
1
Wow! What a load of garbage this article is. Trump may well be a one term President but it wont be due to failure to deliver. If it happens it will be due to his Tweets and to the Press printing garbage like this that the uninformed electorate will believe. Hopefully the American People will educate themselves before giving us another Bush or Obama. But, hopefully I will win the Lottery too.
1
wishful thinking.
But let me suggest that what Democrats need for 2020 is 20-20 vision. They need to see Trump for what he really is . He is a menace to democracy for the USA and for Planet Earth. (We are not the United States of Trump, not yet.)
To get 2-20 vision, for the 2020 election, Democrats need better ideas. I suggest that they hold "idea contests".
Yes, we can win in 2020, with vision!
============================
From your mouth to god's ears.
Is it really wise to publish these headlines after newspapers like yours failed so abysmally in the actual election predictions of 2016? Purposefully fake news now seems flat out reckless.
Huh, and I thought the President’s re-election campaign in 2020 would have come to an abrupt end in late October when the First Lady finally, in a fit of rage, shot her husband with her dainty diamond-crusted (albeit illegally acquired) handgun. Time will tell (how patient Melania really is).
4
Please not Elizabeth Warren...Trump will win...
4
Warren and Holder! You're dreaming, Mr. Leonhardt. If they run, Trump will win re-election, again on the "better me than them" theory. To whom do those two appeal, other than the NYTimes echo chamber?
1
Didn't we learn our lesson 2 years ago?! Remember when the Times was certain Hillary Clinton would win?!!!
2
How about a column “How Trump and his family got indicted in 2019”?
3
Though I was a life long Democrat, any party that embraces Bob Menendez for re-election loses my support.
1
Yes, Hillary was so unpopular that she got 3 million more popular votes...
Something that always seems to be missing from these postmortems (because this is as much a postmortem of 2016 as it is a commentary about 2020) is this factor—many people, most even, did not actually believe Trump could win. People I know who voted for him were shocked that he won. He was shocked that he won. I know from campaigning that more urgency would have made a difference in voter turn out.
I have heard Trump’s win (Electoral win) described as a fluke and this rings the truest to me. Forget about the Russian influence, forget about the fact that few die-hard Republicans would ever consider voting for a Democrat, and a woman, no less (which would definitely also be the case for Elizabeth Warren)—minus just Jill Stein and James Comey, Hillary Clinton would now be president. And it’s also likely she would be facing such unprecedented hostility and obstructionism that it would be impossible to get anything done and to get reelected.
So let’s put 2016 behind us, quit fantasizing and concentrate first on the 2018 mid-terms. People know better than they did in 2016—he can do it and he may do it again and we have to be mobilized to do better.
3
Is there a lot of value in reporting fantasy these days? Won't the truth suffice any longer?
3
I'd prefer him to be in federal prison in 2020, not on the ballot, but Trump losing is enough for me.
5
I wish you hadn't put in that bit (para 6) about how Bush was re-elected despite his unpopularity, because he 'benefited from being a wartime president.'
I found this paper’s alternative scenarios for the outcome of the November 2020 presidential election to be depressing. Each one assumes that Trump will finish out his first term. Woe is us.
5
I really liked @calsailor's comment and suggestion to run Joe Biden and a young person he could groom. Biden is of course a politician's politician, but he is such a decent man and he is charismatic and attractive. He would make Trump look ridiculous. I do think Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have to realize their time is up. Especially Nancy Pelosi is increasingly looking like she can't let go of power. She hasn't done anything noticeable to rejuvenate and excite the party for some time. And the DNC seems mired in their old tricks to freeze out whom they do not like.
6
Joe Biden - Kamala Harris 2020. I’m ridin with Biden. Tried, tested and true.
6
You didn't mention that Trump blamed the Russians for hacking into the election and that he would not accept the result. He had already set up this tactic during the third 2016 debate with Clinton as well as before the 2018 midterms when he tweeted that he was worried the Russians would hack into the voting to favor the Democrats. This delayed the peaceful transition of power that has been a hallmark of American elections. With no other recourse, the military led by Jim Mattis had to forcibly remove Trump from the White House. Riots broke out in large cities in red states.
2
We will never be rid of him. Even in defeat he would be a constant source of Twitter based falsehoods and rabble rousing as he did during the Obama era only now he has a larger audience of disciples. He will forever foment devisiveness in our country as long as he lives.
3
It will be best for Democrats to hammer away at their platform and say little about trump - not only good strategy - but trump will be very upset to be ignored.
4
@APO
Democrat platform? Free stuff for everyone, open borders, hatred of white culture? That platform?
1
As much as I hate to say it, I think Bret Stephen's cautionary tale was more believable. Which is disturbing.
2
Oh please...this is liberal fantasy run amuck and speaks to how thoroughly the democrats and their enablers in the media are operating in an echo chamber.
4
You forgot to mention that Comrade Trump refused to move out of the White House, claiming the elections results were fake and that he actually won again.
2
Alternatively, Trump is locked up by November of 2020.
9
It’s time for the NY Times to prohibit anonymous/pseudonymous commentary. The outpouring of right wing invective in response to even-handed publication of two possible outcomes of the 2020 presidential election reeks of Russian intervention.
Most of us—with the notable exception of the Supreme Court—agree that unfettered anonymous campaign contributions are inconsistent with true democracy. We are also entitled to know the origin of commentary seeking to influence the vote from anonymous/pseudonymous sources.
3
Pathetic fantasy.
3
Vote
2
Well at least NOW the New York Times admits it prints fiction.
3
Thanks for splaining why you chose Elizabeth Warren as the winner of the 2020 presidential election, David Leonhardt. But hey! there are any number of American women who would make great presidents over Donald Trump's posited second term. No point now counting chickens and fantasizing 100 days before the Mid-Term elections. By 2020, there'll be an awful lot of unforeseen and unexpected water over the presidential dam.
3
I hope that with luck and skill, the Mueller report will ensure that Trump is out -- one way or another -- before 2020. And surely, any imagined post-election report for 2020 would have to include a lot about the Mueller report and its aftermath. (And my imagining of the yet-to-come Mueller report is that it will contain MUCH damning information about Trump and associates.)
2
Elizabeth Warren???? When did smoking crack become legal in New York?
Not a big Trump fan, but to elect a socialist to the Presidency will be the death knoll of this great nation. Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged producer exodus will come to fruition and the government and government teet suckers will be the only ones who remain. Sad.
2
awww man , i can just see Liberals just salivating reading this headline.... Their minds are in a state of temporary euphoria in a light dream state imagining the eve of the 2020 election and Donald Trump making his defeat speech. The four year nightmare is over and like the morning after a horrible storm , the rays of light are coming through the clouds at dawn as they walk toward the light with arms outstretched as Delivered into heaven. ...but....the crushing reality is the the " DONALD " will be elected again and dead the thought of another four years in the dark hell of a MAGA America .With up to 4 supreme court picks and the total undoing of the EPA , Obamacare and the loss of Government to Leftist organization's cash pipeline , the future is a harsh reality. I totally understand this dread as I went through the darkness at the thought of four more years of Obama....
2
The only one of the five who gained two terms in spite of fewer popular votes was George Bush--albeit his war did more harm than good, removing the most powerful buffer against Iran and allowing that theocracy to pose a serious threat to the West today, a source of terrorism throughout the world. So it seems that the best way for the unpopular Trump to win is to be a wartime president. I would not put it past Trump to follow in the footsteps of his Republican predecessor and start a war "of fire and fury like never before" to hold on to his position which is enriching him and his family ; Trump , extremely self-centered and selfish, always ready to indulge in personal pleasure (social-religious mores be damned) would only briefly hesitate to incite a hellish war to help win the 2020 election.
2
Since when does the Times print fairy tails?
2
@Papa Tom Did it bother you so much when Bret Stephens last week wrote about "The morning after Trump's re-election"? I don't think so.
1
From the time Trump rode down the Trump Tower elevator, this country has gone down with him into the abyss. I laud David Leonhardt’s optimistic vision of the future as contrasted to Brett Stephen’s apocalyptic one.
The American people finally stuck their heads outside their windows, and yelled, “I’M MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT TAKING THIS ANYMORE!” Then, they voted for Elizabeth Warren and Adam Schiff!
3
Wow, talk about making it up as you go along....trash
2
The New York Times is a leftist propaganda outlet. Nothing more, nothing less, and kidding nobody but the useful idiocracy they exist to exploit.
The fact that comments must first be reviewed for approved thought by their internal Ministry of Truth speaks for itself.
3
When Mr. Leonhardt picked Warren, his article became worthless.
3
@John Xavier III He didn’t—Brett Stephens did. Did you finish the article?
Trump loses in 2010? Be still my beating heart.
Unfortunately, this anti-immigrant, anti-establishment sentiment is far from running its course. Unless he really screws-up between now and then, I don't see it. The Dem candidates will be establishment candidates, and many who hesitated to vote for Trump in 2016, fearing the end of life as we know it, will now openly support him.
Trump voters are not feeling voter remorse, and others are now embracing him. The red wall is forming. Many readers of the NYT do not live in the interior states, or see the Trump signs on many of the lawns, and experience the feelings about immigration. Unfortunately the 2016 vote was not an aberration, and will be growing. This nightmare is not ending soon.
@Billy from Brooklyn
Anti-immigrant? ...no
We have very accommodating laws concerning immigration and only ask that people "obey" them.
@jgunns
Understand your point. However I do believe that much of the immigrant backlash is less about the legality then it is about todays immigrants having a different complexion. Trump is playing white identity politics, playing on white fear of becoming a minority in what many consider to be their country.
The economy is up, jobs are up, and his base seems satisfied. I'd say Trump is a shoe-in for 2020. Would I like that? Not at all, I think the man is a real danger to this country. However, I see nothing coming from the democrats that offers any real hope of a 2020 exit for Trump. Most people in this country don't read. Indeed they haven't read since high school. This country has no idea what big words mean. Misogynist? Collusion? Forget it. Go for the simple. This country sits on its tush and watches television, eats too much, and doesn't think beyond the next day. In a country like this that has been at war for 17 years with no end in sight, where a 24/7 news network has raised an entire generation on lies, where people stare at the little screens in their hands while missing their own lives, this guy is perfect. The only question is,"who is next?" Because if you think Trump can just be wished away, you've been living in a very thick bubble. Is there any hope? Well, this November is the only light I see. IF people actually get off the sofa and vote, IF they vote for democrats, IF democrats actually grow a pair (well, several pairs actually) then there might be a chance. At this point, however, November is a long way off and 2020 is Trumps to lose.
2
@Michael Kennedy "2020 is Trumps to lose."
Not with approval ratings consistentlyl below 50%, it isn't.
@NA He lost the popular vote by almost 3,000,000 in 2016. The polls had Clinton in by a landslide. Trump won. Republicans love him. Face it. This newspaper is a bubble of wishful thinking. What is important isn't his popularity, good or bad, but what is offered as an alternative to Trump.
@Michael Smith and others posting that Trump's success propaganda means 2020 is ensured:
- North Korea is now producing MORE nuclear fuel.
- Trump’s tariff war means taxpayers giving $12 billion to farmers so far - and CEOs of major companies citing the devastation they're causing - and the US Chamber of Commerce CEO said Trump's tariff war threatens to destroy 2.6 MILLION jobs.
- Yes, the economy is still growing at the same clip it was after Obama rescued it from the Bush disaster – but wages haven’t budged, AND Trump added a trillion dollars to the deficit to fund tax cuts for the very wealthy and corporations.
- Corporations have not raised wages with their huge tax cuts as Trump promised – they have paid shareholders and stowed money overseas. Look at Trump's Mar-a-Lago as an easy example of what happens when they make more money: even though the club is making millions of dollars more since they doubled the initiation fee to $200,000 because club members pay for the benefit of seeing the President of the United States golf – they are not hiring US citizens at a decent wage - they are hiring 70 immigrants this year for jobs that pay $13 and under an hour. Line cooks will even be paid LESS than a year ago!
The golf, though, is going great! Trump just got 3 more golf days in at a cost to you and other taxpayers of a another million dollars-for a grand total of 125 days of golf and $73 MILLION charged to US taxpayers during his presidency.
1
You can be a Progressive and still think Elizabeth Warren isn't our best bet. It comes down to do you want to be right, or do you want to be happy? The most important point of 2020 is that a Democrat takes the White House.
NYT has become a very sick, sick publication. This is the most disgusting article I've read in a very long time. This isn't journalism, it's propaganda. Truly confirms my belief that America's honest press is dying a sad, slow death. True journalism is really over in America. And it is replaced by Trump Derangement Syndrome propagandists. Your hate for President Trump, someone who is fighting for the American people, is truly deranged. Shame on you MSM. Very sad.
2
@Sandy Right
Why the outrage? Look at the label above the title of this "article." It's "Opinion." Unlike Fox News (something tells me you're a fan), the NYT draws a clear line between news coverage and opinion. Newspapers have had editorial sections since the dawn of journalism.
3
@NA
Oh good. Maybe the NYT can draw a very clear line between "substantiated stories" and "anonymous sources" as well.
@Sandy RightIt's an opinon piece. Chill out. Jeez.
1
Nyt won't publish pro trump comments on this thread MAGA TRUMP 2020.
1
@Jack
MAGA
That's a complete summer story and has to be taken in with humor. Which is hard to come by these days with everything going on.
Time travel would be good - just into fall of '18 xx
Lets hope people go and vote ....
3
Thank you David. It actually put me in a good mood, as if their is some hope out of this national nightmare. And wonderfully plausible. Although I just don't think Elizabeth Warren has the charisma to win, but I'm sure the Democratic Party will field a good candidate. And we will make America kind and generous and decent and honorable again. Thank you.
3
@thetruthfirst
"I'm sure the Dems will field a good candidate"...well let's hope so. Trump got past the primaries largely because the R's DIDN'T field good candidates. The Dems need to thread the needle here; pick someone who's competent and mature and even established, without being 'the establishment'. Fresh, winning manner, solid. Obamas don't come around all that often.
Thanks for this, David.
For one thing, the majority of such articles have been about how Trump is sure to win again unless the Democrats somehow find a way to go through this or that eye of a needle.
Needless to say, this is not the time for progressive Democrats to take up once again their old dogmatic battle against Sec. Clinton. It is time to participate in the give and take of Democracy. It is time to be tactical.
David--a pundit--writes that the Trump balloon will once again come down to the ground where the standard rules of politics apply. If only we could be sure.
The white nationalist cult thingy is not new. Europe fell for it seven or eight decades ago. Our own Know Nothings foreshadowed the Civil War. Perhaps "foreshadow" is not strong enough.
The wildly unpopular and cruel Trump Republican policies look to remain that way. Remarkably, the Republican midterm candidates are refusing to even mention the tax-cut-for-the-rich.
In return for protecting Trump, the Republicans are getting what they asked for. That is a problem for them.
The big winners remain the same. Protect Social Security and Medicare (from, it goes without saying, the Trump Republicans). Affordable health care for everybody. Good public education for all. Affordable college tuition.
But this is an apocalyptic era for the Trump Republicans. What wouldn't they do? They haven't bottomed out yet. And they have already told us in no uncertain terms that even treason is just fine.
2
I agree with most of the comments. The Dems need someone new and fresh to run against whoever is in the presidency in 2020. I'm looking at Tim Ryan, but hoping there will be someone else new and good for us voters...
2
Remember when people were wrong with their predictions about Trump losing in 2016? Dangerous to venture into this fantasy, I think. With many of the Congressional Republican candidates needing to pledge their allegiance to Donald Trump, the outcome of 2020 is anything but clear
1
You wonder why people use the term “fake news“? As of the publication of this article, the 2020 election is well over two years into the future. We don’t even know if Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee or someone else will. And are they just playing making up the names of the “voters“ mentioned in the article? Finally, is this written by the same people who have all of the “landslide“ projections of Hillary Clinton’s win in 2016? Or has journalism simply evolved into fantasy fiction writing? Instead of reporting on the facts… As in, things that have actually already happened.
3
@John J, it's an OPINION, and is clearly marked as such.
the LEFT are truly lost..Trump is their kryptonite and he is DESTROYING the swamp mindset. He has done more;
taxes
immigration
the wall
trade
Trump has done more than potus in the last 100 yrs. The LEFT are now begging POTUS to stop telling the truth about their lies.
1
Simply Disillusion.
God's in control. I Guess you didn't notice how He brushed aside Hillary. If He wanted a fool for the next Pres it would happen. Who taught the fish to swim? The birds to fly?
The Republicans?
The Democrats?
God has no interest in politics. Stop attributing every good or bad thing in your life to the gods! They don’t exist and don’t care!
1
From your mouth to Gods ear.
And Hillary will win in a landslide right?
2
Did you read the op-ed?
As my father used to say,”From your lips to God’s ear!”
There is only one thing I would change - the ticket would be: Elizabeth Warren: President / Cory Booker: VP.
1
This is about as desperate as it gets, any deplorable can see that. Hilarious!!! Good Lucy against Trump in 2020, you will have tried everything, including projecting all the nonsense in this hit piece, and you will come away empty handed. Elizabeth Warren, really?
2
November 8, 2016: that’s when all those who stayed home sulking or who voted in protest or who thought Hillary had too many problems were then treated to the horror of the election results. Much of what will unfold on November 6, 2018 was determined at that time, and that also goes for November 3, 2020.
This came through on my phone the other day:
"Hey, it's _____, a volunteer with the AZ Dems! We're just 100 days from the midterm elections and we need help registering voters and making phone calls this weekend. Can you join us?"
Yes, I can!
This is #1 on my list of things to do to trounce Trump and his GOP lackeys.
What are you doing this weekend?
1
May you be prescient, David. Please god let us see the back end of Trump asap.
3
We are still talking about a newspaper that predicted Hilary Clinton as a lock for the presidency, right?
4
That is all the NYT does anymore, write hit pieces on Conservatives, especially when the President is a conservative. Trump is right. The FAKE NEWS is alive and well at the NYT, CNN and many other MSM news outlets.
3
This is pathetic.
Does anyone else see parallels with the disparaged Sons and Daughters of the Confederacy?
At this rate I'm not surprised there hasn't been a go fund me page set up for a statue of H Clinton, your failed "leader" (I hope there isn't!)
It's long past time to move on.
4
Your lips to Mueller's ears.
This column is so wrong it's terrifying.
A while back, the Times named five Democrats who are gearing up to run against Trump: Sanders, Warren, Biden, Booker, Harris. If any of these people are the candidate, Trump will win re-election.
Life ain't fair and this is not a democracy. Liberals, your votes are worthless. It's not only because Evil Republicans have gerrymandered and suppressed your vote. It's because you live in Liberal Ghettos. It's easy to imagine a scenario where in 2016 Trump won the popular vote and Clinton was elected. She won California by over 4 million votes. If her margin had been merely 1 million and 30,000 votes had flipped in PA, MI and WI, she'd be in the Oval Office.
Many of Trump's supporters know that besides being the great con man ever, he is completely without merit. Just give them an alternative they can relate to and a lot of them will peel off.
Please, please put away your Political Correctness. If the Democrats nominate a white male from the heartland, under 65 years of age, he will win in a landslide. Anybody else, and I hope your moral self-righteousness gets you through the destruction of our Republic.
Dan Kravitz
7
Perhaps it's time to move the U.S. capital to the West Coast....
All things considered, historians will destroy Trump even if the GOP's love affair with a psychotic president lasts beyond 2018.
1
Fantasy Op-Ed writing, complete with made-up quotes from imaginary voters who chose free community college over huge gains in employment. This is an instant classic.
2
Was this pulled from The Onion? If not, the author has a promising career over there! I can't remember when I laughed so hard - oh, wait, yes, I can. It was election day, November, 2016, when this paper said Hillary had a 98% chance of winning! These people can never get out of their liberal bubbles to see what the rest of the country sees. I'm sure this piece is a hit in NY, Boston and DC. Enjoy your pipe dream!
3
Hillary Clinton was in fact quite popular.
Under the title: Was FBI Director James Comey an Innocent Kingmaker? https://bit.ly/2NYwk4p (Much older version : http://bit.ly/2eXtT1O) I wrote
"The Comey Intervention changed the Favorability Index( FI) Ratio Trump:Clinton from (-45): (-19) to parity (-33): (-30) , while McConnell’s, Pelosi’s, and Obama’s Ratio did not change within the 3% margin of error (see Figure).
Clinton, with a negative index of -19% (+26% ahead of Trump’s -46%, as she had been all summer) was the 3rd most popular politician in the US, behind Barack Obama (+20) and Bernie Sanders (+42), so sour was the mood of the electorate.
Even Pelosi with an average FI of -43% was far ahead of McConnel of -61%.
We look into the claimed (1) violations of Department of State rules, (2) violations of cybersecurity, and (3) violations of the Classification Manual,
several 100 pages of reports by the FBI itself, starting September 2017, show convincingly there were, and there are, no such violations. None.
In Comey' eagerness to implicate Clinton, in his testimony to Congress he violated Title 18 of the U.S. Code, Section 1001, “False statements to Congress”, a felony punishable with jail up to 5 years [see John Dean in http://bit.ly/2b9WdMl ].
The 2nd “Comey Intervention” is hard to believe to be innocent; it fits too well as a continuation of July 5th. This final hit was in addition to" surgical precision" voter roll suppression, never investigated by the FBI.
1
@RainerPitthan
Please. If we don't admit that Hillary was disastrous candidate given the mood of the electorate - a plutocrat who wanted to maintain the economic status quo while trying to whip up progressive energy by playing girl power anthems at her rallies - and decide that it was just the Russians, Comey or GOP gerrymandering to blame, we're going to lose again.
The Democrats' Republican-lite has to stop. No more establishment oligarchs pretending to care about middle class people!
1
Is Mr. Leonhardt interviewing for an opening at SNL? He has potential; possibly very talented comedy writer. Let SNL decide.
This entire article is a symptom of Trump Derangement Syndrome
5
Dems, you want to beat Trump? Come up with a competent candidate instead of the usual bunch of clowns. The candidate that I have in mind is Mike Bloomberg.
2
Yes! So much more reasonable and palatable to the electorate as a whole. Sadly, that makes me lose hope. But a much more reasonable dream.
1
Kind of a silly exercise in hopeful thinking, really. And you've also handed Trump the answer to insure re-election while you were at it, if he doesn't already have it on his agenda: start a war (which he's laying the groundwork for in more than one place). It worked for the man who formerly held the crown as the stupidest president in history, and it will most likely work for Trump.
1
It is evident that many readers have chronic TDS as does the Times. The public needs to wake up and do their own thinking. Everyone needs a read pilll. This is a good start
https://www.facebook.com/TheNewRevolutionII/videos/qs-plan-to-save-the-w...
or here on youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8cp1KvZKPo
The Times has forgotten that they along with the rest of our irresponsible media were wrong wrong wrong %100 of the time during the election even when the entire nation pointed out to our stupid media to quit giving Trump everything he wants and stop giving him a billion dollars of free press but NNNOOOOO the media wanted that money from increased ratings and still do.
So the Times predicting the future is just an old worn out joke and it makes them look really stupid. I hope someone after the election will bring up the article and see what's what.
3
The headline should read ‘Democrats Loose White House in 2020 as Socialists Faction Splintered the Democratic Party” .
2
How I hope you're right, Mr. Leonhardt.
But. . . .but. . . . .
"Deep calleth unto deep at the noise of Thy waterspouts." It says that somewhere in Psalms.
The man CALLS to his base. We're not talking labor statistics. Or the federal deficit. We're not talking tariffs here. Or the balance of trade.
We're talking about Trump's BASE. Those people--and I'll be frank, New York Times! they scare me somewhat--those people that include young people. And women. And yes! even some black people. Not many. Some.
The people of whom the President has said, "I could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue--and they'd still vote for me."
He's right. They would.
Sorry to sound so venomous. I don't mean do do another Hillary with her "deplorables." On the other hand. . . .
. .. if the shoe fits. . . . .
I would LOVE to see Elizabeth Warren as president. I would vote for her in a heartbeat. But she's getting on in years.
And I don't think she ENERGIZES people the way our President can. Oh, he ENERGIZES them all right! In bad ways, yes. Deplorable ways, yes.
But energy counts for something in politics. "Fire in the belly," as Jimmy Carter put it.
But then--the imponderables. HOW'S the Russia investigation gonna play out? WHAT'S Mr. Cohen gonna say? WHAT'S the economy gonna do?
This that. This that. 2020 is two years off. So much could happen. And who knows?
You could be RIGHT, Mr. Leonhardt.
God grant you ARE.
1
@Susan Fitzwater - What, EXACTLY, has Trump done as President that you don't like?
2
Just like he will never win and Hillary can't be beat.
2
The only part missing is about all the republicans who were disgusted with themselves for ever having voted and supported the most disgusting despicable president of all Donald Trump.
6
@zb the republicans I meet are not disgusted with him - they have bought into him - and become deplorable.
It's funny that publisher Sulzburger just met with Trump, pleading to stop dissing the 'fake news' press...then this 'fantasy' piece comes out in the NYTimes - ya gotta admit, it's weird and funny all at once.
3
The author posed an interest conundrum, Hilary Clinton, the winner of the popular vote, was deemed too “unpopular” to win the election. Hmmmm.....
This is a ridiculous article. I despise Trump. I read the Times religiously. But every time that columnists write ( not report) about this clown, they only draw more attention to him. What's next? Debating whether Trump would make a good King? We can shake our heads in disbelief that he is POTUS but the guy has his pulse on society. Bad press. Good press. Doesn't matter. He makes great copy. But I can't wake up everyday and open my crusty eyes to Trump non-stop. Enough
4
From your keyboard to God's ears
Fantasy is fun when reality is just ‘too much’ I guess. Smidgen of obsession can found in this article. It’s not a dash of obsession... more like an Emeril Lagasse ‘BAM’ amount of obsession.
Kind of weird this is what you fantasize about but hey, to each their (ze, ve, xe, theybie) own.
2
At “President-elect Elizabeth Warren” I stopped reading.
6
Keep dreaming! Will. Not. Happen.
2
Here's why he didn't win.
A traitor who knew that Russians had committed a cyber crime against the Democrats in 2016 in order to help his campaign, yet said nothing to authorities - making him am accessory to the crime - was sent to the dustbin of American history by voters who ended up reviling him and voting in unprecedented numbers to remove him.
In exit polls, most said they could not stomach the guy a second longer and wanted to make sure he was buried forever.
They seized the opportunity to wash a traitorous stain out of our American cloth.
Any questions?
2
This is not an improvement on its horrific neoconservative counterpart, loath though I may be to say so. Why can’t opinion columnists stick to what they’re good at and abandon these horribly unimaginative forays into creative writing? Two bad attempts at fantasy writing don’t just magically balance each other out by purportedly representing conflicting political perspectives.
To quote Clinton - it s the economy stupid. If the economy remains robust, Trump will get re-elected, especially if the opponent is an extremist like Warren
4
Biden for the win
1
Way too funny and well... just hilarious. Remember all the polls and the people who said... "Trump will NEVER become President, he will not be President" by Obama himself and others? Even on election night leftist 'news' (COUGH COUGH) people were just about crying, showing their true colors and lack of unbiased reporting.
Get ready. Its going to happen again. TRUMP 2020
2
Now about the photo choice for this article. What will that hairline look like in 2020?
"The medium is the message:" Trump would love to run against an old woman {Pocahontas} and a Black guy. What about all the new policies these Dems would proclaim: Tralala la la -- it would make no difference. Trump's biggest problem with many Americans is he talks {and tweets} too much. He's a drama queen, always complaining or bragging. The next winner will be "the strong silent type."
2
Elizabeth Warren elected President? It's July, David. Let's save the horror stories for October... And Halloween!
4
Hey, let's just see if the guy gets to the end of 2018 first before we start writing fanciful columns about what may or may not happen in 2020. The way this narrative is hurtling, he won't be in office in six months, let alone a year.
1
NYT, the joke will be on you, as real America, outside of the few hundred square miles of fantasy that is NYC, LA and Madison WI will re-elect "the Donald" by 8-10 points. People vote their back pockets, regardless of what they tell your pollsters. The fraud to prevent the repeat will not be accepted.
2
In your imaginary scenario, do voters care about the incessant lying and the bashing of perceived foes?...the trashing of allies?
Our new position as the Ugly American...?
So..What are all you left leaning socialists going to do when Trump wins in 2020?
1
What has happened to the "Gray Lady," the newspaper of record? It has become synonymous to a tabloid the last few years. Very sad demise. NYT would have never published an article like this years ago when it was a great media outlet. May she rest in peace.
4
Rates right up there with "How Hillary was going to mop the floor with him" lol Got news for you, the bias MSM always acts like they are a big entity, but fact is way more people are for Trump than they even realize. We know the Deep state is trying to take him down, they've been trying since before he was elected.
5
It all comes down to who gets out and votes. In 2016, 40 million people didn’t. And the margins in 2016 in some places were so slim that a few more people getting off the couch and waiting in line would have changed the outcome. For 2020 to have a different outcome, enough people have to care enough to act in the primaries and in the general. I’m not sure they do.
I hope they will - its on us to try everything we can
LOL
This is hilarious!
You know there's some serious issues worth seeking a therapist for when you are reduced pipe dreaming like this. No wonder President Trump calls it "The Failing New York Times".
Of course we could settle this right now. Lets just hold the 2020 presidential election today and get it over with. Would save untold millions in lefties wasted effort and a nation the embarrassment for having them seen by the world crying anew on such a massive scale.
On the other hand, lets just keep the buildup going because I'm relishing this too much and I'm embracing my inner schadenfreude.
See you at the polls! :oD
2
Given that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, despite Russan and Media opposition, the dig at her in the column was gratuitous. It really is time for a Press housecleaning.
3
Yes, the Dems gave William Jennings Bryan three shots. Why does Hillary deserve less?
An interesting and perhaps fun column, as is Brett Stephens's. But here are pitfalls. Much has been made this last week's news on the GDP...this column at least acknowledgs that it is not necessarily herald a boom for the middle/lower income. Nor was the tax cut. Yet even fact based news organizations have delved little into this perspective. The GOP/Right Wing fanatics have gone into absolute rapture as tho this will guarantee a Trump-Forever nation. Trump has no policy and even less understanding of any governmental decisions. He just likes to "win". It is BIGGEST, therefore good. We have become so overexposed to the lies that perspective seems to be totally diminished. Already Trump is promising 2 months on taxpayer money to campaign for the GOP 6-7 days a week. And he LOVES campaigning. Meanwhile, only 100 days out, I have only seen one attempt (MoveOn.org) at educating us about candidates (full disclosure-a liberal org & only sent to the choir). There are some real crazies running on the Right...we should all be made aware of them. Dems need to trumpet their platforms, not just hope Trumpism loses momentum. The press needs to focus on issues that are destroying our democracy. I read Dr. Krugman's column on the GDP. His view (an educated economist one) and others should be front page news. Also front page should the the daily lies and damage from Trump. Trump's news should not pretend he actually makes decisions...he reacts and plays capital G god.
2
For the democrats to win, I believe they'll need new blood and forward a ticket to give Blacks and Hispanics a reason to hit the polls. When the democrats have won in my lifetime the ticket has been lead by a young, new ideas person...Kennedy, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. I exclude Johnson because I believe he was bolstered by Kennedy's tragedy embellished reputation. Warren, Biden, Sanders....they're all my age, and I'm looking at people younger to lead us out of this corporate dominated wilderness and the plague of Trump.
5
From your mouth, to God's ear!
2
The NYT continues to display an incredible level of stupidity, arrogance and an astonishing lack of understanding of today's political landscape. He will win in 2020, easily, and you will forever lament the decision to continue bashing him. Get over yourself Sulzberger.
3
@Steve Leonard Trump will be unbeatable in 2020. Trump has accomplished more in 1-1/2 years than Obama did in 8 years. Especially when the Democrats put up another candidate only concerned with social issues.
3
I think both articles miss the point. Narcicist that he is, I don’t think Mr. Trump likes being president. I think he will declare having accomplished all he set out to do and more and step aside in 2020. That does not mean someone in his family won’t run. I think there is a more than slight chance the R 2020 ticket will have the same names as in 2016, just in reverse order, with Don Jr and his new wife running at the bottom of the card with Mr. Pence and his first wife on top. And I think the Dem ticket will have a Warner rather than a Warren, on the top. It will be Mark rather than Elizabeth. How about an article on that.
3
@Tom Lucas If this occurs, my money is on Nikki Haley as the GOP nominee. Keep an eye on her: she's politically savvy, smart, and brings an excellent governing track record from SC (and is wisely keeping a little daylight between 45 and herself - see politically savvy above).
1
Honest reporting is something that needs to happen if the Democrats ever want the White House back! All the fantasy opinion pieces in the world can't change the realistic points that 1) the economy is doing well 2) The vile hatred that infested the city's (Democrats run) has not moved to the local streets of the Red and Blue states. 3) the media has lost all credibility with the people who actually take the time to vote. 4) America is happy to have a President who refuses to take crap from other countries that have made a fortune off us for decades. 5) A rally for Elizabeth Warren can receive a few Hundred people a Trump Rally brings in 10’s of thousands of people! My point being the Media is lying to you to give you a false sense of hope so you don't give up. The only blue wave you will see is the one going down the toilet if the media doesn't stop with the hit pieces and start reporting on actual pros and cons of every situation! I in no way think President Trump is perfect but he is not as bad as you portray him as and its is disingenuous that reports are pushed out that are known to be untrue just to stir up people to attack trump supporters! This is why #walkaway is the real deal! P.S I'm not a Russian Bot. Disconnected behavior will cause you to loss just as badly as being openly Socialist. Maybe we can have a debate without the slander just the Facts if people knew what is fact and what is butt hurt fake news. I'll probably get mauled by angry leftists for this but IDC
3
Pretty silly stuff. The comments are full of a lot of very Moderate Democratic leanings. Any Democrat works for me but I prefer Progressive.
Reminder: Hillary won the general by 3 million votes. Try to remember that. Also try to remember that Bernie Bots and Fake social media accounts exaggerated the size of her opposition, media over-reported her email server faux paus because it was one of the few things we know was a mistake that she made. Then that case of possible election tampering in the mid-west. The everyone hated Hillary thing is bound up in your own news culture and you prefer it, I dare say, because the crap reporting on Trump is part of what got us into this mess.
1
Don't bother reading this crap, Donald Trump DIDN'T lose anything in 2020! In fact he is winning in 2020 because he is a WINNER unlike the NYT which is a LOSER!
4
@Gregory stuben You sound so insightful and intelligent Gregory! What a cogent and eloquent analysis. Bravo!
Thanks for cheering me up. Bret Stephens' article depressed the hell out of me.
1
That's just asinine. Nobody detests our loathsome president more than I do, but...but...Elizabeth Warren? President Warren, with a democratic Congress, could possibly inflict greater long-term damage (albeit with less national embarrassment) than Trump. As horrible as he is, he is actually rather ineffectual. If you look at the things he's actually "accomplished" (new tax law, conservative SCOTUS appointments, etc.) they are pretty much what any Republican president would have done.
Sure, his trade wars and fights with allies are going to hurt the economy, but you think Warren's policies wouldn't do equal damage, perhaps with longer-lasting consequences?
If the Dems nominate Warren we are really truly screwed. It would be like the farcical election in South Park come to life. (Look it up if you don't know the reference.)
Trump began the 2020 campaign the day he took office. His entire focus has been – not on the fate of the country – but on getting re-elected. All of his policies and decisions are based on that goal.
The Democrats meanwhile, in their usual passive-reactive mode, are falling far behind. They need to float a candidate(s) quickly that will combat Trump’s message. And they need to define a message that will resonate with and energize voters.
If they wait until the 2020 party convention to choose a candidate and message the election will be already lost.
1
Why did this not happen, for real, in 2016?
1
Query will this (putative) Trump defeat lead to the 2024 campaign of Mike Pence?
"President-elect Elizabeth Warren"
I loathe Trump, but snicker.
How can you write a hypothetical post-mortem of a Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren election without once mentioning the word Pocahontas?
1
If my grandmother had wings and wheels she'd be a 747, but she doesn't. Wishing is not having.
Elizabeth Warren has as much chance at the presidency as Sanders. Nominate her and lose. Go for purity and go for defeat. It's a center-right country. This is not hard to grasp.
Nominate Michael Bloomberg, a real billionaire who can out-mouth and out-money the chubby Angry-President. He'll ride Don like a lil' circus pony!
2
@AG
When 16oz sodas are investigated by the FBI.
I am afraid that Trump and his gang will win in 2018 and in 2020. The Democrats suffer from over confidence and under performance against Trump, Putin, crooks, and spies. The Dems had better get millions of poor folks registered to vote first of all, and then get them to vote.
Nothing about their three incendiary debates or the October surprise in which Trump was accused of sexually abusing a minor when he was 42?
Silly article. What will happen in 2020 is totally different! In the next two years, Trump will destroy all our institutions and alliances. People will be so disgusted that the institution of the Presidency itself will be abolished. We will have a new form of government in the US without a President or any single person with so much power. Trump is destined to be the last President of the US.
I'm 90% sure this offer wrote a similar Op-Ed about Clinton's landslide victory against Trump back in 2015.
3
Your basis for the outcome is wrong, and so the outcome you propose is just wishful thinking. Dems have not understood the real America. NY, Boston, LA, and Washington DC are not the real America. Democrats have become a niche party of ultra-liberals, minorities, and city dwellers. Trump wins big time in 2020.
1
Pure and desperate fantasy.....Remember the NYTimes predictions on the last election! They have been wrong about Trump since he announced that he would run, why should that change now.
As the saying goes, from your mouth to god's ear.
Desperate wishful thinking from the same Fake News group that presented polls giving Hillary the Presidency.
The Communist Party, formerly known as the DNC, has absolutely NOTHING to offer but bitterness, vitriol, hate, violence and division.
Happily, millions of former democrats are joining the movement #WalkAway and finding a warm, joyful, united, optimistic, welcome among rational, hardworking, productive Conservatives.
The delusion of a “Blue Wave” this fall will be swept away with a Red Tsunami. MAGA!
1
Elizabeth Warren is my senator and she represents my values more than any politician I can think of. But Liz Warren has a target on her back and the Republicans would love to run against her at the national level. They have been preparing for that possibility at the regional level for a decade. A year ago at a social gathering in Montana a local banker said to me, “You’re from Massachusetts. Can you please get Pocahontas to shut up?” He wasn’t smiling.
The same seeds of hate that played a major role in taking down Hillary Clinton have already been sown in many Red States, and in some that are not so red like Montana. If Democrats want Leonhardt’s prediction to come true, they would be wise to keep Liz Warren in the senate or to think of her as a running mate to their nominee.
2
@Richard Frank
I thoroughly agree, read my comments up thread.
My two cents:
Look, I want Sanders/Warren in 2020, but it ain't happenin':
1. Bernie's an admitted socialist. That's a deal-breaker for most Americans.
2. Pocahontas has been successfully mocked and slimed by 45; and she really projects more angst than confident leadership. Her shelf life has expired, a stillborn presidential contender.
So, following my head and not my heart, I suggest Harris/Booker 2020 because:
1. Harris, a younger, largely unknown (thus a clean slate), up-and-comer, will get the vengeful woman vote. Their gal was robbed last time.
2. Cory, like Barack, will bring in the black vote. More than ever, they realize that they need a friend in the White House, not a blatant racist.
2
Trump is the only person who could tank such a strong economy--and he's already busy cutting the legs out of under it every day, especially for working people, the elderly, and the next generation. Don't let him do it. The arrogance and corruption of this administration can either be all of our downfall, or just his.
2
I doubt that Trump will still be in office when 2020 comes around....this hot mess will be over before then and it's absurd to think he will be running for anything. Why do people give this guy any credibility much less their precious $. Why do we continue to tolerate this bold faced destruction?
1
I don't know if it will be Warren but women, for sure, will be running the show for decades to come. Trump and his followers will simply be overwhelmed by Democratic women and independents as well as many Republicans who cross over...Trump and his minions of flying monkeys will be gone...
This is a joke, right? Please note the following :
1) trumps approval at 18 month is the same (or better) than the 18 month number for obama and reagan. In other words, as popular with the country as obama was!; 2) polls show america doesn't care any about russia. It has played itself out. 3) americans don't care about trumps' sex life. They knew about it before the election. And they didn't care about it with clinton (and the left didn't care about it with clinton either). 4) The ecomony is good - you cannot hide that. And didn't clinton famously say, "It's the ecomony, Stupid"? 5) Trump got elected partly on being tough on immigration. So did the left/dems make note of that? No, instead they are going in the opposite direction! 6) The more the left and the media 'pick' on trump, the more the nation rallies around the 'poor underdog' who is not begin treated fairly. Nasty comments from the left just push folks toward trump. 7) Hillary's blame tour just shows how lucky the country was that they didn't elect her. 8) Over the past 2 years trump has turned Warren into a national joke. No hope for her.
Here is the first line of an article I would like to read on November 4, 2020:
"Having been removed from office by impeachment in 2019, the ex-president was unable to run for re-election."
3
Democrats deserve not to win this year nor in 2020. Democrats, who all happen to think themselves everybody's moral superior, have acted like sourpussed, bratty children. Since the day Donald Trump was elected our president, Democrats have done nothing but try to undermine this constitutionally elected president. The degree of hysterics and stupidity is off-putting. The question is will 2020 be a referendum on Donald J Trump or on Socialism?
1
I don't understand the purpose of these pieces.
1
I hope this defeat is true; however, I doubt it will be Warren. If anyone could beat this pathetic excuse for a human being, it would be Joe Biden. A Biden Harris ticket would be strong.
2
Kind of mind-boggling that Leonhardt doesn't mention the economy once. Somehow, political pundits like him can't seem to get it into their heads that "it's the economy, stupid".
If there is a recession before 2020, Trump will lose. If not, he will win. Recent historical data is pretty clear on that, John Quincy Adams et al. not withstanding.
1
I want to know what became of the Republican Party. Did it return to conservatism or just die with its tie to one person's strange charisma.
1
I find the lack of understanding by the media regarding Trump voters to be nothing less than astonishing. We are anti-communism in all of its forms: progressivism, socialism, and fascism. We love our country, we work, we get married and THEN have children, we are honest and optimistic, and we have faith. When politicians lie, cheat and steal, enriching themselves in office while raising our taxes and destroying our businesses and our schools, well, we get angry. Because we aren’t useful idiots, we vote, as opposed to rioting and looting when things don’t go our way. We don’t blame our problems on others and beg our corrupt politicians to make our lives better, we find better politicians and we support them. We talk to our children and inform them, we take second jobs to get our children out of public schools, and we stay away from socialist propaganda news outlets. Progressivism is much more dangerous than Donald J. Trump could ever be, and the voters who put him in office are very aware of that simple fact, we know who the true enemy of freedom is. Our fight is against socialism, which is nothing more than slavery by vote. And if we have to withstand a few years of a boorish man with terrible manners and bad hair in order to reveal the evil that is trying to take over this country, so be it.
@SouthernHerf
"We love our country, we work, we get married and THEN have children, we are honest and optimistic, and we have faith. When politicians lie, cheat and steal, enriching themselves in office while raising our taxes and destroying our businesses and our schools, well, we get angry. Because we aren’t useful idiots, we vote..." could very well describe many of the centrist, dedicated Democrats in my area....
@SouthernHerf you say "When politicians lie, cheat and steal, enriching themselves in office while raising our taxes and destroying our businesses and our schools, well, we get angry". So when is that going to start happening? Trump has proven himself to be a cheat and a liar (ask his three wives), is destroying businesses and schools (ask Harley Davidson, ask the farmers), watch what Betsy DeVos is doing. Should I hold my breath?
1
@SouthernHerf
well said
Running mate Eric Holder ? Of Marc Rich fame? Too silly for words. Even sillier than Warren as president.
1
Two things:
Why not:
How Trump could lose the Election of 2020.
[ Let us avoid fake headlines in these times of
fake news.]
Elizabeth Warren...?
At least try to make your story credible.
1
Realtiy to NY TImes: Warren will never win nor will Booker so give it up. Most Americans are too centered and do not want socialism nor illegal immigration and wealth redistribution. People vote with their wallets. Through tax cuts & regulation this economy is roaring. And before you print false comments I strongly suggest you research the record of Obama (anti business, pro union and huge on regulation). He knew/knows nothing about business and took 2% gdp and less as the norm. He had a few quarters over 2% and it nose-dived. It is amazing how this paper repeatedly lies and thinks it can fool the American public; you can't and that is why Donald J. Trump was elected president. You were wrong again.
Love this universe better than the reality of mr. Stephens. Ofc, I fear you gave chump the answers to the test. Well, I hope the dems take heed, too! Rich are getting richer under trump, America is kinda a disgrace, and don’t forget Puerto Rico and rise of racism.
Correction on Warren and Holder. The former Governor's of Washington and Georgia, namely Jay Inslee, President, and Stacey Abrams Vice President will lead the Executive Branch in 2020.
We need new blood.
1
That felt good!
1
Ah hah, ah hah, ah hahahhaha! Using pickings from today mixed with the future does not work, and we can all see what you hate most about the man, the usual talking points. I suppose I would consider myself a centrist conservtive, if that is a logically minded combination. I like to use common sense and dig out the truth, verified via public sources (and sometimes not), to see the end goal. Trump is a baffoon at times, brilliant in others and I do sincerely believe has the good of this country at heart. Those who oppose so vehemently, do not. It rattles them to this day he won, they are still collectively gasping, and grasping. Criticism where criticism is due, all of these “public servants” deserve it, but not one more than another.
From your pen to God's ears.
We can hope.
@libdemtex
Quick, change Austin to MLK!
I think you are mistaken about Ohio. The people of Ohio will not hang on to the bitter end of Trump's catastrophic career. Iowa, yes, too many deplorables there.
Whether or not Trump is the President elected in 2020, impartial journalism as a source objective information is dead. Opinion is no longer confined to a section of the news source media. It appears overtly in the headlines and section headings within articles; the cuteness or puns inserted into wording; the search of video frames to catch an unflattering posture or facial expression of your subject of derision.
Readers who want to know what the New York Times, among others, is no longer capable of producing should try the Epoch Times.
Silly. Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren has little chance to win a primary, let alone the Democratic nomination, let alone the presidency. Not enough charisma. She's worse than Hillary Rodham, and that was bad. And Eric Holder? What a joke.
I hesitate to make predictions more than 2 years out, but I'll bet Donald Trump wins with Mike Pence. Any takers?
3
Isn't this being printed in the newspaper that reported on the morning of November 8, 2016 that Trump had only a 15% chance of winning the election and whose editor made a printed public apology a few days later to the effect that the Times would really have to examine its overall coverage of such things to rectify how it had gotten everything so wrong?
So when does the examination start?
We all yearn for an outcome where Trump is kicked out. After saying that, he would not go easily or without noise and accusations. Post Trump there would have to be an overhaul at Twitter where he's banned from posting his filth.
The Democrats must field their strongest and most charismatic leader. A complete opposite to Trump in demeanour and character; one with an incredible brain and a rod of steel running through their spine.
David
Sorry but with all of the hatred and the occasional violence from the liberals, it only strengthens the Conservative’s resolve. See you in Nov 2020
1
From your fingertips to Gods' ears Mr. Leonhardt!
3
I'll take ANYBODY over Trump. ANYBODY at all (except Mike Pence).
A dead squirrel? You bet!
But Elizabeth Warren will lose. She will actually lose the popular vote.
Don't do it.
PS: What was Jill Stein doing at Vladimir Putin's dinner table in Moscow in 2015? That was no coincidence!
1
Hard to believe that the Times would actually publish a prediction of the 2020 outcome more than 2 years out after it had Hillary Clinton at a 90% lock the day before the 2016 election.
And Elizabeth Warren run because she frequented Wisconsin and Michigan,
Sorry,
“... and it was in October, whern the Democrats had a clear lead that four women came forth and claimed that the candidate had groped them over 15 years ago.”
“Of course the Democrat candidate denied these allegations, only to have 2 more women come forward with similar claims saying #metoo from 20 years earlier.”
“Rather than have another Bill Clinton situation on their hands, on October 24th, the leading candidate resigned from the campaign saying — While I have no memories of the incidents in question, this period in herstory is to important, not to accept the narrative that is in the Public today”
It was too late to change the ballot, and despite the fact that four women had come forward saying that President Trump had Raped them during their Ms. America days, the final election results were Republicans 52% and Democrats 43% with the primary non voting demographic being Feminists and Woke men.
Two weeks after the election, Homeland Security announced that they’d found banking records, bitcoin block chain ledger records, and a money trail directly leading between at least 3 of the Democratic Candidate’s accusers and Vladimir Putin.
President Trump declaired this to be “Fake News” and had Homeland security disbanded.
If we’re going to dream, how about trump chokes on a chicken wing that triggers a stroke. Flopping and falling, trump crushes pence, breaking his neck. In his hurry to claim the presidency, Paul Ryan is in a traffic accident, hitting the senate leaders car head on, there are no survivors.
A combination of fake news and toxic propaganda destroyed Hillary Clinton’s image in the eyes of the broader public. You have no idea how many people, also in Europe, keep on repeating that “she was so corrupt, so disliked!” statements without any concrete foundation and that can be explained only with the disinformation, public slandering and character destroying successfully orchestrated by Putin against her.
And of course, enough people drank the kool-aid to believe the garbage and the lies.
My fear is that Putin and Trump will engage in the same character destroying tactics against Elizabeth Warren, Eric Holder or whoever else leads the 2020 democratic ticket. Democracy in America has never been so weak and compromised.
1
Sounds good to me!
1
I've read comments from both articles, and, as a total Trump lover in Minnesota, all I can say is that you democrats are wringing your hands about "how to get back control" and "win" ~ you guys want power.
This is precisely why you will lose. Trump doesn't want "power" ~ he wants to serve the interests of the people of the USA. That is why he is unbeatable, and winning.
If you want to win elections, play by his book and concentrate on serving the constituency as your primary focus and put aside, yes, forget about, winning.
You will win through honest, loving service. But then, as a political party, you also kill unborn humans, so your party lacks honesty and it lacks love.
How can you win? I don't think it is realistically possible anymore... Give up abortion as a value - stop defending it; that could win a lot of votes for you...
The same commentator from Nov 1, 2016:
"The reality is, Trump could still win. It is unlikely, yes, but . . . campaigns aren’t over until they’re over."
Leonhardt was part of the Times team that blithely assigned a probability of a Hilary win of around 90% for months before the election, right up to the final days.
Back in the saddle again. Confident as ever.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/opinion/how-you-can-fight-donald-trum...
1
I go with Brett Stephen’s analysis! It isn’t just the economy. It is the threat to “whiteness,” that Obama perpetrated and that Don Lemon doesn’t realize as he pontificates on CNN! And DEMs, PLEASE don’t run Elizabeth Warren! She won’t get any votes! We need someone populist, who can connect with the disgruntled “white”/“brown” (not immigrant Hispanics), people of the heartland and assure them that they will get jobs, will have a strong economy and someone who will stand up for them!
Let's hope the demagogue is gone by then. This boil is going to burst.
1
NYTimes as paragon of MSM promotes another oatmeal Dem, remains entirely deaf to Trump zealots, surprised but not very while eating crow after another Trump victory 2020.
Or DJT starts a live-fire war somewhere - throw a dart at the board - to justify his re-election or, if defeated - Fake News! - to enact State of Emergency or other extreme measure to stay in office against any other claimant, vociferously supported by his armed legions… etc., etc…
Since when did The People know best anyway? I'm DJT!
Remember the last time NYT predicted Trump's devastating loss? It's safe to say from that experience that the NYT pundits are not exactly visionaries. Like him or not the guy keeps winning. He keeps his campaign promises. People like that, even if he falls short on a few. If Warren is the Democrat nominee...four more years of Trump. Socialist Bernie? Trump wins. Hillary. Laughable. Trump wins. The Democrats are in denial. The country is Center-Right. Keep throwing up extremists. Keep losing. Americans hate three things. Establishment Democrats. Establishment Republicans. The mainstream media, CNN and MSNBC in particular. They like Fox News. They like underdogs. They like patriotism. They like to see things get done. They like jobs and a good economy. They like to stand for the national anthem at football games. They've had it with the "Open Borders" and "Sanctuary Cities" crowd and want something done about illegal aliens. They like to go to church and Chik-fil-A. Know-nothing Hollywood stars, pale mouthy vegans, and crazed environmentalists irritate them. Donald Trump fits into their life. They like him. I've never seen Democrats so out of touch with Americans. Find a candidate who fits the Center-Right mold and Democrats have a chance. If they don't, they will lose...again. For the record, I'm a Center-Right Independent Conservative. I find the current mindset of both Democrats and Republicans to be very, very, sad. *sigh* Alexa, play "Despacito."
1
Did you really see this as a prediction rather than a hypothetical? There was a parallel article, also hypothetical, with Trump winning. Both are fantasies at this point in time — maybe one will come true. Also a fantasy: Trump keeps his campaign promises.
1
Not in my wildest dreams did I think it possible that someone so ignorant, bombastic as well as narcissistic would be voted in as President of the USA. However, there we have him. So making all these predictions is just a pipe dream at the end of the day.
Trump has tweeted: “The vote tallies are lies by the sad CNN! Don’t trust them. Sad that the fake news are calling this early. We will fight this to the Supreme Court.”
President Trump is calling for a recount and special investigation headed by Kris Kobach. His lawyer, Rudolph Giuliani, is taking the case to the Supreme Court where Brett Kavanaugh and Raymond Gruender, who replaced ______, will surely have some effect on the outcome. These justices have indicated they will not recuse themselves from the case.
The Mercer Family, DeVos Family, Koch Brothers, and Sheldon Adelson have all spent an unprecedented amount on this election along with several unidentified Super PACs and Evangelical churches that are now allowed to participate in the elections. They all have launched online campaigns arguing the vote tallies are false and Donald Trump has indeed won the election despite statements by all the state election boards. The DeVos family has already persuaded the Michigan election board to overturn its early ruling against President Trump. Several thousand votes in Michigan have been negated due to clerical errors.
...
And I haven’t even mentioned Russia, but 2020 will be messy! Do you really think Trump will concede? Even in the face of facts he lost the election? He won’t, and the money and courts and Russia will be in his corner.
3
Bret Stephens' column freaked too many people out. The New York Times needed to offer a safe space to its core readers, hence this comforting albeit reactive column by David Leonhardt. PS: in the US system, candidates running against an incumbent are almost always beaten - ask McGovern, Mondale, Kerry, McCain and Romney. Odds that Elizabeth Warren loses approach 100%
Would it be so. But I think you're dreaming Mr. Leonhardt.
Forget about now, forget about romanticizing the past... Let's glorify the fantasy of future imagination land!!! Escape to the fantasy of the future, quick, retreat, run away!!! The present reality is harshing our buzz...
As my long deceased Jewish grandmother would have said: "from your lips to gods ears".
From your mouth to God’s ear! Please, our country can only take so much lying and deceit by the POTUS. What are our children to think when the president should be someone looked up to not a pathological liar whose on a mission of total destruction of our country and everything we have stood for throughout the world. Trump is the poster child that honesty is not the best policy.
1
Truimp will surely be gone, but the fact that such a large fraction of Americans supported this ignorant buffoon is a sign of a serious national problem: a woefully uninformed public. That problem will continue to bedevil the U.S., and I see no sign of any effort to solve it.
4
I sure hope it happens.
I'm sorry but as much as I dislike Trump as a man and as POTUS, I think columns like this are a complete waste of time and resources. I'll create my own fantasies, thank you very much.
What?
No mention of Trump to refusing to stop calling Warren, Pocahontas?
In reality Trump would bury that hypocrite and roll past her in a landslide.
And address her only by her “Indian” moniker Pocahontas.
1
Still lost in your fantasy world of inaccurate
polling and imagined causes .
The biggest and most powerful take away from 2016 is the flawed polling and even more flawed exist polls.
Now you are imagining the future because it makes you feel girlishly hopeful like imagining a romantic love affair with an hot guy who never consider someone so homely.
From your mouth to God's ear.
From your mouth to God's ear.
May the words from your keyboard reach God's ears.
To sleep, perchance to dream. Thank you.
Unfortunately, I suspect the Democrats won't run a woman; they've discovered that too much of America is too misogynist to vote for one.
I had a dream... Then I woke to the nightmare of another four years of Trump! How absolutely delusional this opinion piece is to read. It could not possibly be more incorrect. Every single point made is 180 degrees out of phase with reality. I could hardly make it past the first few paragraphs. Talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome! Dang, I'm out of popcorn again.
I have always liked Warren. Her message is all about the average American and she has produced serious results unlilke Trump. I am not so sure about the Holder idea but we shall see.
Yes, please, America! PLEASE ?!!
Please pray that this is true! Please! I really mean it!
Trump will win 2020 unless the Democrats can come up with a good candidate to get behind. It best not be Hillary...otherwise it will be another loss. It best not be a super crazy leftist, otherwise it will be another loss. I personally voted for Donald, because I did not want to see another Clinton, just as much as people did not want to see another Bush. Plus Hillary is a big liar period.
1
I like all the Left fantasies about Trump...
first, they're very predictable... second, they're very wrong... One on record already!
To defeat Trump Democrats need to modify the message to include non-hyphenated Americans that are mostly excluded from that narrative... Tiny minority of white male are misogynistic or homophobic or racist bigots...
Most are centrist and regardless of their education they voted Trump... Most are concerned about their taxes that Dems threaten to raise... as well as illegal immigration that intimidates blue'r collar demographic... and irritates all the rest... Unqualified support of either issue makes Democratic party what it become... an urban outlier... See the electoral map published in NYTimes last week... And judging by this columnist views, Dems are going to double down on exclusionary tactics just to appease the fringe...
I guess once ain't a lesson well learned... :))
Keep deluding urselves about Trump & Party of Trump! PLEASE do not change! Media & Dems have done what NO REPUB has ever done: solidify & harden a diverse base that has always been easy to fray! U HAVE CREATED TEPHLON DON!
1
l will bet anyone any amount of money Trump gets reelected.
So, put up or shut up.
3
Some soothing reading early Monday morning.
As a liberal Democrat, I’ve read both pieces and still believe Trump could win. That’s because you, my fellow Americans, are incredibly stupid, ignorant and apathetic when it comes to voting. You spend hours on your phone, an infinite source of information on candidates and issues, and yet you can’t devote a minute to read or view the important news and analyses of the day. Cat videos and Candy Crush beckon instead.
When confronted with a voting option that could be good for you, you choose the opposite. A candidate could come up to you and punch you in the nose, and you would still vote for him if he was anti-abortion or anti-immigrant.
So let the punditry continue on as to who will win in 2020. Based on Americans’ track record thus far, we all stand to lose.
2
I will vote. I will henpeck my family and friends to vote. Will you?
Social pressure is strong, and as a community we can bring our peers to the polls; I don't care for whom they vote, only that they act as responsible citizens of a democracy. The message is that participation is the duty of us all, and many small efforts can reap a tremendous result.
Oh boy do I hope your prophecy comes to pass. But I just can't be optimistic. I get a sense that the general public is starting to just not give a big enough damn to do anything as strenuous as...vote. My generation was in the streets wailing at Nixon and Johnson. Our grandchildren can't pull their faces away from curating their social media presences on their phones every waking hour.
Against my emotional and psychological needs, if placed at a wagering table in Las Vegas I'd have to give Trump's re-election 2-1 odds, and up the bet to 3-1 if nothing catastrophic occurs within six months of the election. We;re just too fast, lazy, and dumb.
The Democrats complicate everything. The choice is a simple one. Do you want to live in America, or do you want to live in Trumpistan? (With a nod to Steve Schmidt)
1
Don't think Warren is the answer to Trump.
Love her passion but like others, I have grown weary of her style...she can be shrill and off-putting.
2
David, I appreciate your efforts to imagine a Democratic victory with a super liberal nominee at the top of the ticket. The problem for the Dems is not so much with who will lead them in 2020 as what they propose as policies. You cite tax increases on the rich (who are the rich?), free community college (already exists or nearly so in most states), expanded Medicare (for all?) and infrastructure needs. You omit the attacks Warren has made on ICE, the attacks on law enforcement and the Democrats preference for illegal aliens over American citizens. You have forgotten some of the social engineering and identity programs that the Dems are so fond of and that should cost them at the polls.
Many voters swallowed their concerns over the Trump personality and gross ego centrism to vote for him over Hillary. But many in the middle of the political spectrum cannot stomach the leftward socialistic approach of these so called "new" Democrats. Especially when Trump has put such an effort into making good on his promises despite fervid Democratic opposition.
You are right however in that Trump will probably never obtain the approval of a majority of the voters. Neither did Clinton win a majority in his two elections. Trump is beatable but not by the current Democratic agenda and not by an extreme liberal like Elizabeth Warren. Perhaps Joe Biden could beat Trump. Or, let the Dems shock us and nominate a moderate governor from "fly-over" America, and Trump would likely be toast.
1
While I did enjoy reading both Bret Stephen's (for me nightmare) and David Leonhardt's (comforting) scenarios. As an old white man, acknowledging that it is my generation of privilege white men and women that have delivered this country into its current state of elitist pandering to extremes on both the left and the right, I do not believe that Elizabeth Warren is the appropriate counter to the current "crisis" in government. Rather putting Warren or Joe Biden for that matter forward as a counter to Trump would signal to the nation that the Democrats are still "fighting the last war" - the one between old white conservatives and old white liberals. The one that has been running hot and cold since the Vietnam era. Let us declare that war over and done. Both sides have lost. It is past time to move beyond that...to put support behind a new generation of thinkers and creative activists - concerned not with returning America to an imagined time when their grandparents were blissfully ignorant and comfortable, but rather striving to make the world better for themselves and future generations. Warren, Biden are not those thinkers. They would better serve themselves and the nation, devoting their energies towards identifying and mentoring Kamela Harris, Mitch Landrieu, Kirstin Gillibrand etc to take on the mantle of leadership in guiding the nation forward toward true equality, justice and responsibility for all.
The major problem with the article is it failed to mention that Elizabeth Warren was the first Native American president, as well as being the second female president (HC won the popular vote, so she is the REAL president after all). It also failed to sate the the moon is made of cheese, which is quite important since Elizabeth Warren's first executive order will be to send a Tesla rocket to the moon to bring back cheese to Earth and solve world hunger.
I am waiting with bated breath for your third article in this series: 2020 Election, Trump Loses Election, Not Stepping Down.
1
What I’m reading into this is that more democrats serious about change need to seriously consider relocating to these swing states come 2020. This can only work if you come from a solid blue state obviously, but could make all the difference. Take one for team America, your country needs you.
I can only hope that this and Bret Stephens take are rendered moot by the findings of the Mueller investigation! We would then NOT have to envision the remote possibility of a 2020 run by Mr. Trump. I then hope that ALL of his appointments would become illegitimate and we would be able to press the “reset” button. This is the worst reality show that I have ever seen.
4
@CL Johnson if wishes and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas.
It ain't happening. Mueller has nothing....Trump will not be impeached and if so, the senate will not vote him out.
I voted against Trump, and will do so again. But he stands a good chance of winning again if Democrats nominate an anti-capitalist, tax-raising leftist, especially in booming economic times. Best bet is probably a white, southern male - assuming there are any left in the Democratic Party.
2
@Publiusitch Mitch Landrieu is a much better candidate than Warren or any other names mentioned because he would govern from the center. Plus he is as inspiring in his speeches as Obama. Only negative, he rightfully removed confederate statues in New Orleans that were erected during Jim Crow era to visibly intimidate African-Americans in the city that auctioned more slaves than any place in the U.S.
@Publius
No best bet is a woman with a military background (Sen Tammy Duckworth) or a solid business profile or alliances with credible people in business, industry or the military. (Second best bet, a man with that profile.) Race will not be a factor in a winning candidate this time.
The Anti Trump is not a populists leftist. It's a sane and sober minded centrist who understands her nation, her nation's place in the world, its economy, and above all the legitimate use of the US Constitution. Left of center ideologues really would tank the election for the Democrats, but calling on someone from the white Confederacy will not win votes across the USA.
Brett Stephen's speculative analysis that Trump will win in 2020 is way more plausible, especially if Warren and Holder run.
1
But neither is.
If we're going to engage in creative projection, we might as well aim big. I would re-title the opinion to read "How President Pence Lost Re-Election."
Following a Democratic wave election in the 2018 midterms, congressional oversight was restored as a legitimate check on the president's authority. Public investigation into Trump's finances revealed gross criminality and personal compromises on the internationally stage. Trump resigns in disgrace under a bipartisan threat of impeachment. Mike Pence becomes the 46th president of the United States but loses his 2020 re-election bid amidst public disgust over Republican complicity with a treasonous president is fully revealed. The Democratic primary before the election is the most widely attended and broadly debated event in modern history. The nominee wins broad consensus and achieves a landslide victory along with congressional majorities. The end.
Aim small, miss small.
3
Yesterday I read an article about evangelicals and Trump. Its conclusion was that they voted for Trump so that he would appoint conservatives (particularly abortion opponents) to the Supreme Court, and for this purpose were willing to overlook the fact that he was a foul-mouthed lecher who violated all their moral standards. But once they have the Court, they won't need Trump anymore and will be free to despise him.
Mr. Leonhardt doesn't discuss any of this.
Arguments against Elizabeth Warren are baffling, tiresome and unconvincing. She’s refreshingly
progressive, she’s charismatic, and she’s no Hillary.
It’s insulting to call her ‘too old’; she’s a wise, seasoned, experienced and articulate politician, and realistically the only one who can steer us out of the seemingly endless morass we’ve been subjected to.
Good choice, Dave Leonhardt, we’re with you!
3
Regardless of your choice for the new president (this isn’t a prediction, it’s meant to be fun), reading this was the first time I’ve relaxed since November 2016. For a few delightful minutes, I was able to breathe.
Bush benefited from being a wartime President. Watch out! It could happen again.
With all due respect to Bret Stephens, whom I admire, and for the benefit of the entire country, let us all hope and pray that Leonhardt's scenario prevails,
I love David Leonhardt.
But the fact that he does not name the Democratic candidate until the middle of his account and the fact that he gives paltry reasons for doing so in his post script does not bode well for Democrats.
Democrats need a good leader with conviction. I'm not sure they will vote for someone who cannot connect with the people.
Interesting coverage of a future election. But what David Leonhardt gets wrong is who wins it. It will be an Obama. The only question is which Obama: Barack or Michelle. We won’t know the answer to that question until either future candidate officially announces his/her run.
You know that President Obama cannot be elected again, right? He’s termed out.
David Leonhardt left one very important factor out of his scenario. What will happen to the political landscape after Trump starts his war with Iran? Remember how George W, Bush, another unqualified POTUS, started a war with Iraq and won re-election because too many voters didn't think it was a good idea to change presidents in the middle of a war. (Even though W. started that war based on fabricated claims of WMDs that was not in America's interests.)
Trump and W before him, are excellent arguments in favor of abolishing the ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
1
Ha, Trump, facing an orange jumpsuit to match his tan, will be out of office in 2019. Pence will poll in the 20s by the end of his term.
But Trump is running up deficits, that’s going to be painful to fix. Voters look just beyond their noses.
I hate what Donald Trump has done while president, but this piece serves no purpose. i wish I could un-read it.
I will give David Leonhardt the same advice I gave Bret Stephens: Never predict the future--especially in print. Doing so is a recipe for making a fool of oneself.
Having dispensed that advice, I will now ignore it: I predict that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee in 2020.
1
Oh no. Does this mean we'll be stuck with Trump for two-and-a-half more years?
As a true skeptic of mass media propaganda, I've concluded by the tone of each one of these articles that NYT not only fully expects a Trump re-election, but is sort of easing us into accepting it. The Trump "lost" article wreaks of feigned emotionalism and unrealistic idealism, while the "won" article is level-headed and a more realistic reflection of the virtual space the media has worked hard to create in the last year...wonder why that is.
I’m sorry to hear about Ohio, prospectively.
You mean George H.W. Bush. W was a two time President.
He means George W. Bush, who was the only president of four who lost the popular vote but hung onto a second term.
1
Thanks for the needed palate cleanser after the Stephens column.
Interesting. This was similar to the predictions The NYTs was making during the 2016 election. Hilary was 90% likely to win. 90%! Based on this I went to bed early on election night. The next morning held the surprise of my life and made me wonder about the future of our country and the source of my news.
The one term of Trump has revealed a terrible truth about the republican population of America: they don't care if he's a traitor to his country, they only care about their tax breaks. They have made the American maxim, "Equal Justice Under Law" a joke.
We have entered an age of the Anti-Patriots, the ones who rank selfishness as their prime attribute. Simply put, we have lost. Everything.
1
Mr. Leonhardt writes that everything Trump does fails and that citizens are so befuddled by what to do next we vote for a socialist (Warren) and a racist (Holder) to lead us to the promised land. Seems like a stretch to me.
Most of the economic stuff Trump implements will probably work. Not 100%, but enough to visibly benefit many Americans. The fact that it doesn’t benefit me but helps someone I know is ok with me.
He will try other stuff I support but will be blocked by Democrats and Republicans who hate him and want to see him gone. No reason to blame him for that.
Finally Trump will also do several incredibly stupid things, but like most of us, as soon as he sees what he did he will fix it and move on. As long as he doesn’t blow up the world not much damage will be done. All in all he seems like the right person to be President.
Thanks for the article. It was well written just not very thoughtful.
This opinion piece is nice wishful thinking. But I am more with Bret Stephens on this one ("How Trump Won Re-election in 2020"). It is very likely this lunatic clown will get a second term. Why? Because Democrats still do not understand what makes the American independent voter tick. For instance, I cringe when I read that the Dems want to nominate candidates like Elisabeth Warren, Oprah or Cory Booker. When will they FINALLY learn that candidates like that have no chance of winning, no matter how good they are. Why not? Because in essence, a large portion of the voters in this country is latent racist and sexist. Just like trump. As a Democrat, I will NEVER vote for minority candidates any more in the primaries. Not because I am racist (I love Elisabeth Warren and Cory Booker) but because they have no chance of winning the general election, Trump will roll right over them. What the Dems need is an “all American boy”; white; in his mid-50s to mid 60s, well spoken, smart, aggressive but not rude and in fact a gun lover. Preferably a Southern democrat like Mark Warner. Such a candidate can win because he will appeal to right-leaning independents. But NO more experimenting with minority candidates because then we will LOSE again! Wake up Democrats!
YES SIR, fabulous piece. Exactly on course to happen. We cannot go on under the destructive non leadership of an unqualified, unfit President. My heart and soul believes in the good people of America!
Yes, Warren is too shrill. And Trump is just so soothing and magnanimous. No contest there.
1
The media is really sick. REALLY sick.
The analysis of Mr. Trump losing in 2020 is spot on. I am however not convinced that Ms. Warren will be the nominee for the Democrats. My guess is that the Democrats are going to really change it up, not so much on the ideological side, but on the generational side of the equation.
The Democrats have younger minority candidates, both male and female who will be viewed as 'new faces'. Neither Bernie Sanders nor Elizabeth Warren represent the dynamic of new and innovative on a national stage. Mrs. Clinton lost because she simply had been around too long and had far to much baked-in-baggage to overcome.
President Trump will lose in 2020 if he is still in office at that point. It will not however be at the hands of Ms. Warren. The nation needs a fresh approach and and a relatively new messenger to deliver that approach. That is what will drive voter turnout in 2020 for the Democrats.
Your Headline should be: "Against all odds Trump won the election again".
@Chris Anderson
You do understand how this article came about, right? Brett Stephens already did that one.
ROTFL this article is HILARIOUS!
Good luck with that aged talent bench you’ve got at the DNC.
You guys have zero capacity for self reflection #WalkAway
1
The sense of panic in Trump's Twitter attacks on Mueller, Michael Cohen, and others gives me the feeling that he will choose to resign rather than endure the indignities of an impeachment and possible criminal charges. Of course, he will play the victim of some 'deep state' conspiracy, and many of his remaining loyalists will believe it.
11
A good analysis, and a President Warren might be a healing response for those who voted either for a Madame President Clinton or against a President "the Donald" Trump. But Elizabeth Warren has no interest in running for the office, now or ever, and she has made that clear. Someone who has not declared could tick off every necessary box as a candidate, a leader and a military thinker. Her name is Sen. Tammy Duckworth and my presidential fantasy come true would be that she'd run, get funded, get known, get elected, and get herself settled in the Oval Office behind a desk she would well understand for its history and its gravitas.
Madame President Duckworth in 2020... please, if there is a God...
7
@Amylouise Donnelly I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that! And furthermore, with all due respect to Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren, and speaking as a senior citizen, we need some younger standard bearers on the Democratic side. Most people Senator Warren's age are thinking about retirement. Ms. Warren is an energetic woman, but she would be entering the most stressful job imaginable at age 71. The last President who took office at that age was Reagan, and as everyone now knows, his age took a toll not only of his health but of his ability to do his job in the last years of his second term. That is not a political observation but a practical one. Whether you supported Reagan or opposed him, you know that illnesses like Alzheimers are a fact of life for older people, and nature does not make exceptions for Presidents of the U.S.
1
Stop wishing, get voting.
This administration is on every single American voter -- that's what I now tell my friends and colleagues. So, let us stop the indulgence in fantasy and remember -- you get what you pay for... and this time the cost is showing up at the ballot box AND voting.
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I'm a far left Progressive, but I have to agree with others that as tough, smart, and compassionate as Elizabeth Warren is, she'd be a hard sell in some places. Not her policies--her. She can come off like she's always delivering a firey lecture. I don't think I've ever heard her speak in a normal, conversational tone. Just as some people disliked Mrs. Clinton because she often sounded strident, Ms. Warren, too can sound almost frantic in getting her point across. I'm not averse to Joe Biden, he's the kind of politician that can win, despite his age, especially if paired with a younger, likable running mate--Patrick Duval comes to mind. Eric Holder, too, has the experience and gravitas so missing in the current president.
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@wynterstail
The initial writer fantasized a Warren candidacy because he knew it would read divisive to both liberals and conservatives, and pitch the 2020 discussion in favor of Trump. Elizabeth Warren knows this, and knows she will have far more influence on American society and policy if she keeps winning her Senate seat run after run. She has no desire to be President. I know Joe Biden has that desire, as does Andrew Cuomo at the moment. But Warren is staying put, and wisely so.
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@wynterstail Funny, no one ever describes male candidates as "strident." Trump is certainly "fiery" in his red-faced, fist waving rants in front of his Nuremberg rally crowds, and they love it. Must be something about the color of Warren's hair, I guess.
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@wynterstail
"I'm a far left Progressive..."
Based on the rest of your comment, I don't believe that.
Listening to the advice you gave above has the Democratic party in the minority position across the board today.
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For the good of the country and decreased divisiveness, it is my hope that Trump does not run, that Mueller produces the goods on him and that he quits or is removed from office by 2020.
Time will tell.
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