trade war over WHAT?
globally - we are now producing more goods and services than ever before.
9
Not possible to have a trade war with countries we are running such a lopsided deficits with.
5
Not only is the trade war imperiling our economy, the price of gas and the outrageous amount of money (which the press isn't covering) to build facilities, pay contractors, feed and clothe thousands of migrants is going to topple our economy which is still fragile at best.
7
Except of course that gas is actually not that expensive, the primary recipients of "welfare," in this country are white citizens, and illegal immigrants are not eligible for most benefits.
Your "facts," are as factual as those Trump is using to justify attacking Canada.
57
These tariffs are just tax increases in disguise. Making a refrigerator more expensive does not instantly create a refrigerator factory with products to ship. No manufacturer is going to put a large investment into an industry that would fold as soon as the tariffs are lifted. So folks it is really just a tax, and a disincentive for other countries to choose American products when a choice is available.
41
I am glad that The Times shared with us that we import >$600 Billion in G&S from our NAFTA partners - Canada and Mexico - as well as importing $500 Billion in wares ( are wares both G&S, or just one or the other?) and another $450 Billion from our allies in the EU. That begged the question of the value of goods, services and wares that Canada, Mexico, China and the EU import from the US. That data was not provided by The Times, which I am sure was just an oversight. Or, perhaps The Times considers the balance of payments irrelevant to the current global trading environment or to the long term health of the US economy.
8
Only Republicans in Congress and the “base” they seem so terrified of can stop the trade war train wreck. Will Trump voters ever own the ongoing damage their abhorrent hero is bringing on them and us all? Is any evidence or even personal experience enough to bring them back to reality? I have my doubts. Trump’s subliminal hold on these folks seems to be the deep sense of victimhood he shares with them (or pretends to - after all, he is a con man). His raging blame on others and daily conspiracy delusions seem to play right into the psyche of his followers. So we must cycle back to the punchline of so many commenters - 2018 and 2020 elections. Pick a few “flippable” red to blue House seats in your state, help register Democrats and independents, canvas, get out the vote, etc.. Action is the only answer. We are the majority and must climb a higher mountain now to win back fact and reason based government.
34
The capitalists did this to themselves. Decades of off-shoring work, consolidation, trade agreements, tax breaks, tax shelters, off-shoring profits, and etc. have led to a second gilded age. What has become of American workers and the middle class?
They get tossed a few gigs, no health care, no retirement, and a grim future. It took a while, but they finally came up with a solution... Donald Trump. Uncertainty and fear in the "markets"... what did they expect?
24
During the Vietnam war period, this country imposed a draft. The Congress had to act to put that measure into force. The President and his crew have now placed a draft (by executive action only) on Americans again. Only this time, we are foot soldiers in his trade war. A lot of people in the 99% are going feel the effects of Donald's War. The differences between Vietnam and Donald's War are the 1% are going to take a hits too. Those yachts, Mercedes, Gulfstreams and the like may become a bit more spendy. I'm sure the 1% can suck it up and take one for The Donald. RAW
9
It is a bigger issue for the media than it is for financial markets. What else matters more to the masses these days?
In Trump's course of destroying American values, or amplifying the American value of "he who has the most, wins", one has to follow the money.
Who is benefiting from this trade war?
The U.S. petroleum industry ships tons of petroleum-based plastic pellets to China, which they ship back to us in the form of plastic packaging and products.
China is still the number one Coal importer. China's placing tariffs on plastic or coal hurts them.
Likewise with pork. China needs pork. The U.S. has pork to sell. If China puts tariffs on our pork, their people and our farmers go hungry.
The same with drug and tech-products manufacture. Asia makes our drugs and electronic devices at a lower price than we can. They can retaliate by raising prices.
The tariff on German cars and metals hurts Germany, but they won't concede to Trump.
Canada wants to pipe its tar sand oil to U.S. refineries. Will there be a "trade war exception", given Trump's love for fossil fuels, and lack of concern for clean air and water.
America's service economy produces little--toxic products like Monsanto's Roundup and their genetically neutered grain; corn syrup; non-electric automobiles; coal, oil, beef, pork and chicken tainted with chemicals, hormones and antibiotics; arms and tech knowledge.
These sectors are ones in which America is likely to benefit as a result of this trade war.
The rest of us suffer higher prices, no goods and and no allies. Is it to be tariff-free potatos from Russia?
19
The US-Canadian and US-Mexico economies are "Conjoined Twins"
The Canadian Economy is (and always has been) a Dwarf Conjoined Adjunct to the US (BOTH sides are more discreet about describing the relationship, but I am trying to put it in terms a Trump Voter might understand) We can't "punish" our siblings without win without making ourselves sick. Or at least ending up in Family Court with VERY bruised shins from when they kick back at us. Separation surgery is very NOT recommended.
China? Their mercantilist programs have been a problem for a generation now. Real Government REGULATION (Yes, we should specify North American Steel for Infrastructure). But that would require bureaucratic (Government Employee) oversight. People whose career advancement or even basic job security are not at the whim of overpaid corporate executives more concerned about the next quarterly earnings statement. Obviously not an aspect of REPUBICAN concepts of governance these days.
Vote the REPUBLICANS out of Congress, the Senate, and your state legislatures next November.
34
Karl, you did an exquisite job of putting your Conjoined metaphor into terms us Trump Voters can understand. Kudos. Now, can you explain to us how us is benefitting from the $811 Billion deficit in Goods with our trading "partners and allies"? Thanks in advance.
4
We are in a Global economy that just the way it is. It's not a question of whether one agree or not, It's never going back. Trade Wars create a domino effect few win. Losers will out Number the winners. I hate to say this but Trump may be correct that some Countries are playing unfair, But a Trade war is not the Answer. If my neighbor plays loud music and creates loud noise my doing it back to him is not going to solve the problem as people on the other side of my home are now effected.
13
Starting a trade war is a good political move for the GOP. It will be popular among workers in protected industries, and could help win crucial industrial states in November.
The cost of nearly everything will go up, but the increase will be bigger for necessities than for luxury items. Nearly all the burden of inflation will fall on those Americans who spend most of their income. It will hardly affect those who earn enough to save 90-99.99 percent of their income.
This should really be seen as half of a two-part policy. The other half is the recent trillion dollar tax cut for the richest Americans. The resulting loss in tax revenue is a bonus, because it will help justify savage cuts in services for the middle class and the poor: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps.
Working together, the tax cut and the trade war will help achieve the important social goal of transferring more of the nation's wealth to the few Americans who already own most of the country. They truly need and deserve it.
39
Yes. get ready for a global financial meltdown that will bring the world to it's knees - except for the 1500 or so corrupt International Mafia Top 1% Global Financial elite Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys' cabal who are using their inherited/stolen wealth to try to create chaos and WW3.
They are spreading fear-anger-hate through fox so-called news and supposed christian-owned broadcast. They have the perfect cult leader in OUR white house. They have used the stock market to get control of global finance and have weaponized markets to try to destroy democracy in OUR United States of America and the world. They are common criminals.
WE THE PEOPLE - average people around the world who do not want to see OUR lives destroyed by these insatiably greedy, socially unconscious, demented crooks.
NOW is the time. Now may be the only time.
41
Yes, but, the global economy is straining the future of humankind.
7
Since when did Trump become a whiz kid about trade wars? He built casinos and hotels -- much the same way Meyer Lansky, "Bugsy" Siegel, and "Lucky" Luciano did, except with a little less bloodshed (as far as we know). That's what he did. What does he know about international trade? And what kind of business acumen leads to multiple bankruptcies and tanked businesses? And now he's en route to tanking us and the rest of the world. Honestly, if not for the millions of dollars he inherited from his father, Stable Genius would be stuck in Queens doing God knows what.
27
Mr. Quick - Yes, although these are the same kind of (very sound) arguments that should have originally dictated against his being allowed to examine the White House ashtrays on a tour let alone occupy the place. Now that he's in, it's critical to reinstate the Constitutional check on the Executive Branch by returning at least one house of Congress to the country (via Democratic control). My worry is that we NYTimes commenters who are talking in agreement with each other - and who are sure to vote for sanity and morality on November 6 - constitute a relatively small circle within a much larger population of "oh, whatever" -leaning people.
18
Trump is unique at going bankrupt in the casino business.
17
DT is a concentrated version of "get them before they get you". His paranoia and anger projected onto the other nations will become increasingly self fulfilling. Repubs convinced Demos of the need for free trade and economic globalism but a large segment of Americans have been left behind over the decades as their communities are decimated by off shoring of jobs. Demos lost these working class voters. Now Repubs are losing their beloved free trade. All they have left is the tax give back to the rich. DT will bring the roof down on our economy. Uninformed but very angry voters. Fox news, briebart, sinclair, etc. will spin it to protect the oligarchs and their republican underlings. Didn't Reagan open the doors for these right wing propagandist outlets?
16
Since I believe Trumps ultimate goal is align with autocracies like China, my guess is that China will make it look like Trump is winning a trade war, and Trump will reward them with closer ties and less obstruction in the Asia Pacific region, a move that will be praised by both Russia and China. As for the European alliance, it's as good a dead, which is what Trump needs in order to be accepted into the club of autocracies. To say it simply, Trump sees a transactional world where bilateral deals, not treaties, form alliances.
The question is: will America wake up to the reality of the Trump/Bannon doctrine before it's too late?
18
DSS - I'd suggest modifying your point just to the extent that Bannon is an ideologue but Trump's only doctrine is self-aggrandizement. I think projecting out the chess game in terms of what moves will lead to deals and income for the Trump company is a good way to map his thinking. I doubt he cares one bit what kind of a world it is, as long as it provides him with a steady stream of revenue, and porn models and steak houses to spend it on.
14
Typically, no one cheers for a recession to take place. But I'm convinced that our best hope for booting out the Congressional Republicans in November is a recession caused by Trump's idiotic trade policies. So yes, I rooting for a recession, because nothing can be worse than 2 more years of a Republican-controlled Congress that enables our so-called President.
17
Hey Congress! Are you listening? I know most of you think this is a "liberal rag" of a news paper. but there are quite a few of your constituents here reading it. You know, you are suppose to represent ALL of your constituents, not just those that voted for you, right, you know that,right?
Please get your act together and steer the bus away from the cliff that we have two wheels rolling over at the moment.
16
Hillary would have been elected president but for the meddling of the choirboy from Hell, James Comey.
11
This is how I see the future. Trump inherited a booming economy and in his mind it's all because of him. He'll screw around with NAFTA and these tariffs, and he'll eventually bring down not only our economy, but possibly the world economy too. Then after the 2020 presidential election, a democratic president will have to step in and clean up the financial mess left behind by another inept (thanks GW Bush) republican president. Then the republican noise machine will kick in and place all the blame onto the new administration, and all of the left over Trump cult members will eat it up hook line and sinker. We need to neuter the republican party for at least three election cycles, so we can get back to some grown up political leadership and put our country first instead of the billion dollar donors and corporate America! Vote straight democratic ticket, from dog catcher to president, and lets save our country!!!
32
Let's hope it's not too late. Some of the changes Trump has made may be irreversible.
14
It would be a wonderful breakthrough if a majority of the American public were to come to understand that tariffs will mean higher prices paid by American consumers. It would be equally wonderful if the public were to come to understand that politicians don't make the choices about where products are manufactured or assembled. CEOs and Boards of Directors make those choices, not U.S. Presidents, and they're made on the basest of lowest cost - including labor - if the quality is satisfactory. Jobs will "come back" when (or if) 20 people in lab coats working in an air conditioned control room can't outperform 500 steel workers with helmets, shovels and fire resistant aprons. Running the price up with tariffs isn't going to make that happen.
12
US Politicians compete with each other to give away their tax bases for jobs.
2
The trade war is the beginning of Trump's long term plan to brand the western alliance as an unnecessary burden to America and align US interests with the autocratic (winner take all) countries he supports. The last stage will be to lock in the changes he is making via a constitutional amendment that does away with checks and balances and hands over most control and command functions to the executive branch of government. There may not be a third term for Trump, but Trump's party will put in place controls that will make it very difficult for the government to change hands.
8
Third term? He'll be lucky if he finished his first term.
4
Do you really think that even if indited he would step down and exit stage right quietly?
Especially knowing that either stupid Americans or in general societies that seem to support oligarchs and dictators by democratically voting them in, Are seeming to be the way the world turns these days e.g. a prevalent thing with dictators in oligarchs now dominating the news headlines.
Donald Trump, with plenty of support from the Republican majority Congress, unilaterally bring the world's economy down with the trade war. To Americans pinning their hope on the November mid-term election: wake up. It's not a sure thing that Democrats can wrangle control from the Republicans. Secondly, even if Democrats take both houses, any meaningful action to correct course will be at least 6 months away. A lot of business, jobs and goods, like apples, will wither away in 6 months. Can you wait for a doctor to operate on your malignant tumor for 6 months?
So how did this man-made disaster happen? Simple. It's American Democracy. Voters who have no clue about economics, government, business or science made their choice. This political system put Donald Trump in the White House. The so-called check & balance does not work. But the popularity contests and the reality show will go on. Everyone suffers. As for the rest of the world, it's urgent for them to band together and fight back.
36
This seems politically backwards. It is the Republicans who are traditionally Free Trade. Democrats -- many of them -- are quite supportive of the "trade war", certainly Chuck Schumer is.
I see Trump's trade policy continuing, regardless of what happens in November. I don't like it, but thats what I predict.
“So how did this man-made disaster happen? Simple. It's American Democracy. Voters who have no clue about economics, government, business or science made their choice”.
What “disaster” Observer?
Under president Trump the stock market has achieved record highs, unemployment is the lowest its been in over 50 years and among blacks and hispanics it is at record lows, consumer confidence is at historically strong levels, and it looks like I’ll soon be able to buy a beach front condo in North Korea.
Sounds to me that American voters made a wise choice, for AMERICANS.
3
And why do we the people allow our so called leaders to control the interests of the peoples of this world when they are
INEPT at their jobs? Surely we can redistribute powers better...and make our lives worthwhile as a precedent to humanities long peaceful solution, end all wars and better care for all life. We need to remove the powers for a leader controlled system and elect better those who serve the common cause of humanity. No leader should have the ability to start wars or punish citizens.
8
Very nicely said! Thank u
2
The ability to start wars and punish citizens is all too common in autocracies and Trump is leading us in that direction - and getting away with it. Also, we have seen in too many such cases that effective autocrats are often INEPT at governing and that is why they are autocrats.
4
One comment below is in support of Trump on trade, saying that the aftermath has been as quiet as "crickets." The decibels will rise high very quickly if Trump keeps playing this game with Canada. Wall Street's unmatched peeks could turn into unmatched stumbles and falls because of Trump's anti-free trade attitude. Whatever foreign leaders say about it will be closely tracked by the media. Trump shouldn't have slapped your best friends in the face at the G-7. Especially your northern neighbor. Tariffs? There are very different definitions of tariffs by all three NAFTA countries. So, the fact is that Canadian diplomats and economists think there are many de facto American tariffs that were left in place when NAFTA was first negotiated. Moving them out of place for all three countries has been undo-able so far.
For months, Donald Trump dragged Canada and Mexico through detailed NAFTA talks - knowing himself that he would be smashing it apart as part of his "Make America Great Again" display for his most devout followers. Those diplomats and economists who were at the negotiating table are shaking their heads - ESPECIALLY the Americans. The USA is flying into pieces politically - with its left and right getting louder and louder.
13
Everyone has personality flaws. As we mature and enter adulthood, individuals become socialized. We learn to recognize and manage our flaws and sublimate those that may prove to be harmful later in life. Trump never became socialized. His ego is so outsized it matches the Statue of Liberty in stature. I'm no psychiatrist or psychologist and I don't have the knowledge to determine whether this is the root of his social ills. It certainly explains his insane desire to win at all costs. Trump sublimates honesty, decency, compassion, empathy, justice and all of the traits and characteristics that make a human being a well rounded person. I'm not certain Trump even qualifies as a human being. Let's discuss "World Trade." When I was studying for my stock broker's exam, I spent an inordinate amount of time reviewing "The Great Depression." Our country was in a real funk. Politicians didn't know what steps to take (sound familiar), to place the country on even footing. In their haste to protect the American economy from competition from abroad, those countries with cheap labor and government support of industry, Congress passed the Smoot Hawley Tariff Bill. The passing of this bill caused other countries to retaliate, tit-for-tat. These tariffs extended the depression by many years and by the time they were rescinded the volume of world trade had declined by one half of pre-tariff levels. If only Trump read or studied history. Need I say more?
14
Trump's evangelicals believe that God is about to end history.
3
Fortunately for Trump, his followers are unable to connect the dots between Trump's idiotic policies and the impending financial burden we are about to bear. So he will remain popular to his base no matter what.
Fortunately for Trump, the GOP will submit to him on bent knee, their fear of losing their Congressional sinecures overriding any concern for the national interest or America's standing in the world.
Unfortunately for the rest of us, we will once again have to clean up after the GOP has make America a meaner and less fair place. Sigh - the price of being the adults in the room.
29
It feels like high stakes poker. The problem is what happens when the other side is NOT bluffing.
6
70% of Canadians say they will not buy any American made products again. Nice going. Since we have, contrary to DT's tweets, an 8.4 billion trade surplus with Canada. The End.
10
Since I believe Trumps ultimate goal is align with autocracies like China, my guess is that China will make it look like Trump won, and Trump will reward them with closer ties and less obstruction in the Asia Pacific region. As for the European alliance, it's as good a dead, which is what Trump needs to be accepted into the club of autocracies.
1
There are no mothballed plants ready to start up to provide what Trump taxes by tariff, and no money to invest to increase capacity in what is already in global oversupply.
9
The long Trump remains enabled, the worse he will get. He is probing for the breaking point of the USA.
16
President Trump’s tariffs are needed to protect American industries which have, under previous administration’s trade policies, lost out to other nations. Previous administrations favored the workforce of other nations over the American workforce. This was wrong, meanspirited, and unpatriotic. The tariffs proposed by President Trump are a long time in coming, they should have been enacted years ago to protect the American worker. If they had been then the global economy would not be feeling the strains as it is now.
In his historical inaugural address, President Trump stated that the American worker will no longer be forgotten, as he/she had been by Clinton, Bush, and, especially, Obama. Had his opponent, Hillary Rodham Clinton, won the election, the American workforce would have been eliminated altogether. Manufacturing would have been replaced by effete work, which could be accomplished on a smartphone while sipping a lukewarm latte in a Starbucks.
I support the President. I support Trump. Thank you.
5
Trump's message in that inaugural address sounds like something from a left-wing union leader forty years ago. It's kinda weird - given the fact that Republicans would have denounced those words back in the 1970s. The tariffs too! The Reagan administration negotiated the first deal with Canada - and would nowadays be mystified by Trump's drastic tactics on trade. Wake up, the USA sells more to Canada than it buys. Why punch us up north in the face?
22
@Luke Fisher,
Yes, his remarks are kinda weird, almost contradictory as you reply implies. He probably would not have made it; in fact, he probably would have been elected President, had the Democrats not turned their backs on the American labor, which had been at the center of its constituency since the 1930s. Trump was the lesser of two evils offered Americans in 2016, and thanks to the Electoral College he won.
I don't understand the complexities of Global economics. America's off shoring of jobs has not adequately helped enough in our mfg communities. Trump is a dangerous answer to this problem. He will only gurantee his own wealth.
13
This reporting came across like a shotgun blast — bird shot everywhere.
In some sense, I suppose that that befits the nature of Trump’s demolition trade fiasco. He is playing with dynamite and hoping that something can be salvaged from the resulting rubble.
The damages will be astronomical and any gains will be meager at best. Another instance of Trump doing grave damage to the nation with brazen indifference to the manifold consequences.
19
Trump is trying his best to cause a recession. It is really a testament to the economic team that Obama put together, who pulled us out of the last unregulated trickle down catastrophe foisted on the country by the Bush administration. Republicans cause recessions and depressions. History absolutely proves it. And they are caused by giving all the money to the rich, who always promise to invest in the country, but never actually do.
45
Trump wrecked most business ventures he went into in his private life.
He is shunned by most banks.
Why would it be different with the American economy?
It is next on his list to ruin.
35
Trump wasn't shunned by "most banks." There is not a single US or European bank that will loan Trump money. This is why he went to the Russians. A little treason to keep the Trump empire fraud up and running is, in Trump's view, a very small price to pay. Trump keeps repeating the word Collusion precisely because he knows collusion is not a crime. What he'll be charged with is Conspiracy. Conspiracy against the United States. In a word, Treason.
45
Read ‘Beijing Jeep’, the book about GM in China in the 1970s. Since 1840, Chinese have ALWAYS been at war with the US and everything and everyone nonChinese is blocked except on terms favorable to Chinese. If you think the Great Wall is a physical structure, you miss the point. Discrimination against nonChinese is patriotic and cheating foreigners is also good business.
9
So why is Trump going after Canada, Mexico, and Europe, if China is the problem?
5
Priority #1 should be consumer funding of China’s military, island building, global spy network, infiltration of universities, industry, military. It is as if USA were funding Japan in 1941. Trump is naive and lacks focus.
What so unusual about this article that it spite of describing all the pain and woe, at no point does it give any attention how if American goods were being exported, what are foreign countries doing to lower THEIR tariffs to American exporters so matters are more equal to combat what Trump us saying? All I hear are crickets.
2
If only the Americans who believe that President Trump has all the answers to make America great, it would be a wonderful world if was reality. Unfortunately, it is not and I am not sure where President Trump was when he obtained a MBA degree cause he has not the faintest idea about economics.
We do need to have other nations respect America but it is a two way street and we need to respect these nations and their leaders. President Trump, you just do not get it at all s all that I can say.
For those Americans who for some reason worship President Trump, I hope that when you go to store or on line and find the prices much higher and your employer gives you a pink slip that you can remember who actually set you up and why your standard of living is and will drop a great deal. Most Republicans if they could separate themselves from this president are for open & responsible trade between nations.
I hope that all who believe this president is your answer to many of the problems facing America today realize he just destroyed America and your dream of a better life. In the long run America and American will be the losers and future administrations will be very limited in what they can accomplish as the rest of the world can live without America but we can not live without the rest of the world.
By the way I do have a MBA degree and have been very succedful both in medicine and business.
14
P.S. He only has a B.A., not an M.B.A.
4
Trump never got an MBA. He was only an undergrad at Wharton.
3
We will win a trade war on all fronts. That is why we elected him to do as he said he would do. Go out and win Mr. Trump!
1
One of the most positive things one can find in this frightening narrative is trump's age...he is 72 and not a fit or healthy 72. Plus all the raging he does cannot be good for his brain or heart..if he has one. Remember, both of his parents died of dementia.
20
I have discussed with my friends not too long ago that Mr. Trump was suffering from an early stage of dementia. if both parents had it it's possible that he may have it too.
3
It's straining the global economy but the United States is booming. Hmmm, I wonder what that tells us? Maybe we were getting ripped off after all.
3
It was booming before Trump took office and before he imposed the tariffs. This article gives some hints about what is likely to happen as a result of those tariffs.
9
You can thank President Barack Obama for the state of today's economy and jobs numbers. Trump and complicit Congressional Republicans just blew a $1.5T hole in the economy with their reckless tax cuts for big business and the 1%, and his ignorant, hare brained trade war and tariffs will deal the final blow. We're headed for a recession, just as has occured with every Republican administration since Eisenhower. Meanwhile you and other Trump supporters have convinced yourselves that THIS TIME trickle down prosperity will actually happen. Pure delusion. Reality - Americans will elect a Democratic president who will spend 8 years repairing all the broken furniture and crockery left behind by irresponsible Republican children.
9
My husband and I are only a few years from retirement, or so we are hoping. We don't have time to make up for losses caused by a global market crash. Our children are just starting to get on their feet. My son is worried to death that the idiot in chief is going to cause a crash. Meanwhile, the enabling GOP buries their brains in the sand. Trump is looking out for himself, lining his pockets off the back of the rest of us.
27
If it is it true that along with aluminum and steel, a 25% increase on newsprint imported from Canada has been ordered by Trump, then given the president's aversion to 99.9% of print media would seem to wrap up any remaining arguments as to the murderous intent behind one arch -enemy in his world-wide trade war. To obstruct the working of a free press should surely count as a treasonous act.
18
This may actually spur inflation in the US ... Without Foreign competition. American manufacturers may “raise״ prices ... setting off an inflationary spiral... higher prices... demand for higher wages in an already shrinking labor force ... thereby causing the Fed to raise rates ... effecting the stock market ....
8
Here is the pitiful truth and that is Crazy Man may not be listening to his economic advisors because he is so intelligent and such a good businessman that he needs no advice so here we go again diving off the deep end into the shallow and we all know how that ends. Nothing worse than a person who thinks he "knows it all."
13
Trump's anti-trade policies are popular because the US has the first world's weakest safety net.
Unrestrained capitalism means that corporations increase profits by finding the lowest cost suppliers, most often in low wage countries. Advances in communications and shipping made importing goods easier and cheaper.
Consumers benefited from lower prices and corporations from higher profits. Workers, particularly older people, lost their jobs and slipped out the bottom of the middle class. Now the "dislocated" of globalism want their revenge.
The US was, and is, in a state of relative decline versus the rest of the world. We were the only industrial nation not bombed during WWII and that advantage has lasted for a very long time, but now it is over.
If Trump succeeds in isolating the US, the rest of the world will learn to do without us. China is a huge rising market and Europe will learn to trade with them instead of the US.
24
Your clarity on this is a delight.
1
This is precious. Every article i read these days is how the US economy is humming. Articles about the Atlanta fed estimating growth somewhere around 4.5%. This has been unheard of for many years. Numbers the NYT's Krugman said could not happen, he actually predicted a recession for as long as one could see once T took over.
So along comes the NYT with a front page article used to bash Trump policies about global economic growth. I can't find any other articles like this online, just the NYT.
Is this more about another opportunity to bash T rather than economic growth. Keep trying. The economy is humming on all cylinders, I'm sure you're sorry about that, but my brokerage account is quite happy about it.
2
You should be honest enough to admit that you brokerage account has been quite happy for the past 8 years, because it's Obama's budget and economy that is propping up Trump, who has no economic plan because he knows absolutely nothing about economics or trade. If you believe that any POTUS is responsible for the economy from day-one of his presidency, I'd suggest you learn something about domestic budgets and economics. If by chance you do educate yourself, I hope you'll share your sobering findings with other delusional Trump supporters.
9
Good to see a new president on top of his brief.
The issues are complex re tariffs...
Bretton Woods is not a place, Mr President.
Yes the world conspires against Mr Trump and it is reasonable to make new pals with Mr Kim, Mr Xi and Mr Putin.
Canada, Australia and Europe do not appreciate Mr Trump's instinctive mastery of economics and politics.
His instincts like Inspector Clouseau deserve and command respect.
Mr Trump if undistracted by petty critics could turn his brilliant mind to the obvious links between the Democrats and the Bermuda Triangle.
The insight of Mr Trump inspired by his new buddy Mr Xi could build a wall, a big, big wall seen from outer space.
Mr Trump should perhaps stand down given he is a defendant in legal matters relating to more than a parking fine.
I note that Mr Trump did not report his chat with Chairman Kim the fate of Mr Snedden an American citizen.
German radio DW broadcasted the situation.
Thank God for NYT
9
You know how this is going to work? Trump will show them that he means business by making their lives miserable and then there will be concessions.
3
Trump is the most miserable excuse for a chief executive I have ever seen. All he does is rile up nihilism.
14
This is a useful article and puts paid to the rubbish previously spouted from Wilbur Ross's mouth about the "minimal" impacts on US business of the steel and aluminum tariffs. Of course he has no technical competence to say anything much about the impacts of tariffs on trade and investment, nor does the TV economist Peter Navarro. Robert Lightheiser should know better because he is technically and professionally qualified, but he serves his masters. The one missing element in this article is the impact of the decline of American exports on the profitability of American business. When exports fall because of retaliation, which takes the form of countervailing tariffs and boycotts, revenues decline. Typically costs do not decline in proportion to revenues. Therefore margins get squeezed. Net profits are a small fraction of revenues, so a margin squeeze is often sufficient to wipe out profits and taxes on those erstwhile profits completely. When this happens employment and investment are both impacted. Nobody wins trade wars, especially the most vulnerable under-educated and under-trained people forming the bulk of Trump's base.
11
If Larry Kudlow truly had a "very minor heart attack" recently, then he should make sure to get medical clearance before returning to this mess.
4
Way to make America great again, Trump!
As all but those in his so-called base know - he has really done it this time. This foolish, impulsive, small-minded man has effectively launched a world boycott of United States goods. As we can see from this initial rough polling of impacted businesses, it is already setting off alarm bells, not just abroad but among U.S. manufacturers. It's because - and Trump still doesn't understand this - the U.S. is the giant hub of an integrated world trading system in which raw materials flow into American cities to be used in the making of everything from automobiles to Boeing 747s that are then sold to nations around the world. Sure wish Trump and his dim-minded advisors had thought to gin up on what makes the world go round in the 21st Century before taking the hammer to a system that needed only a bit of tweaking to make it better.
9
I get the feeling Trump lives in a world defined by the "keep it simple, stupid" adage based on how he appears to act based on gut rather than strategic use of data, history and calculations.
In this trade war scenario, it is likely that he's of the opinion to not "over think" the problem and "just do it." It might even be that he's more curious about what will happen when he pushes the tariff button, than the advice given him not to touch it.
So, Trump comprehends that there will be global cascading effect just by slapping tariffs on metals, he's titillated by the thought of knocking over the first domino, and he's filled with anticipation about how this will "blow things up" and cause a disruption.
The point in all this is that Trump is betting on the explosion to be cleansing and rectifying, thereby making America great again, but he is probably not unaware that his bet could go sideways and bring so much crashing down upon the lives of people all over the world. This is what's wrong with Trump: he's so [fill in the blank] that he's willing to place such a reckless bet.
5
The only solution. Vote. Vote in huge numbers.
9
We do not have tariffs on cars in my country as we do not produce them. Nobody I know buy American car's. And Trump is ensuring even less of your lousy cars are bought.
USA attitude is really getting under the skin of even this small neutral country. Ripping treaties, bullying allies... really, we do not like it here.
Tariffs between US, EU, Canada, Japan and China are quite low. On sectors where they are high, you go to the WTO (a US creation...) to negotiate their reduction. You know, like an adult.
You know, your 'former allies' can hear reasonable argument and find improvement. And "could have" helped to check China, the real bad guy... Not Canada milk producers...
9
You are right China is the bad guy. Really bad guy!
1
Sen Kennedy (R-LA) was asked if he was concerned about a trade war. In response, Kennedy stated "no one would be stupid enough to start a trade war". Sen. Kennedy, apparently, is unfamiliar with or current President.
We're watching a Guns of August scenario play out. No one wants a war but one action triggers another which makes it inevitable. So far the stock market can't believe the unthinkable can happen. In normal times, with a rational administration, they'd be right. Neither condition is existent now.
3
Trade wars and even fear of trade wars in a globalized world with integrated supply chains are very damaging to economies particularly those in low-income countries. And in such wars environmental sustainability takes a big hit making the looming climate catastrophe become an even more closer.
One way to counteract such economic decline and deal with the reducing the threat of a looming climate catastrophe is to transform the unjust, unsustainable and, therefore, unstable international monetary system which being such basic global system would transform other global systems.
This unstable and unjust international monetary system can be transformed by basing it on a specific tonnage of CO2e per person. The conceptual, institutional, ethical and strategic dimensions of such carbon-based international monetary system are presented in Verhagen 2012 "The Tierra Solution: Resolving the climate crisis through monetary transformation" and updated at www.timun.net.
An outstanding climate specialist and noted economics author stated about the Tierra system: “The further into the global warming area we go, the more physics and politics narrows our possible paths of action. Here’s a very cogent and well-argued account of one of the remaining possibilities.” Bill McKibben, May 17, 2011
1
Nonsense. What NYT is really saying is "roll over and continue to be taken advantage of like the last few adminstations had us do". The problem is that we've encouraged our allies dependence on our money and they're suffering withdrawals - they'll get over it and the kicking & screaming will subside. Unthinkable that the elitists would have us sacrifice our entire middle class for the comfort of our allies - not gonna happen any more.
4
Thats your opinion Dave T. Meanwhile many Canadians aren't buying products imported from the USA - like vegetables, fruits, salads, canned goods, gas, steel, aluminum, hardwares etc etc. Nor are we shopping at American stores. Can you believe we even have a Sacs in Toronto. Hope I don't have to give up my NYT subscription!
Canada did not refuse to negotiate - we just refused to be treated unfairly by accepting a deal with only a 5 year guarantee. Would you buy a house if you knew you might have to give it up in 5 years for an unknown price?
The mills of the gods grind slowly but they grind exceedingly small.
4
I am so glad that many NYT readers are grateful and appreciative of President Trump’s leadership in providing sound economics in our LONG TERM trade policy.
1
Trump's undisclosed tax returns probably show that he implemented a no taxation of his own corporations policy long ago.
4
Us corporations shuttered their factories because the American unions were forcing them to pay
middle class living wages. They sent good paying jobs to China, Vietnam Cambodia ect to pay workers slave wages. This was America turning back to slavery to increase profit.
2
Can we all start calling this - correctly - Trump's Trade War?
6
Guess y'all better check out how Ivanka brand and trump brand junk is handled under the tariffs. Bet they are tariff free. Some noble journalist please research this and feature it as a lead headline if they are tariff free.
7
Globalism only profits the few not the many, why these articles are written is because the one percent are scared their stock prices will be affected. Well the rest of us with our check to check lives aren’t affected that much by it all. Corporations have seen fit to make outrageous profits and not give raises to the workers and I’m supposed to care about a trade war?, please . Your greed caused all the issues we have here . All our jobs are overseas because you shipped them there saying it’s good for the world. It’s only good for you. Your kumbaya act doesn’t work with this cog in the machine.
1
Until you need a new washing machine, or food, or anything else that we import from other countries. Then you’ll see the affect of a trade war when you’re now paying 30% more today than yesterday. Do you think businesses won’t pass down higher costs to consumers? They won’t take the hit, we will. And your measly little tax break will get eaten up so quickly your head will spin. And if we end up in a global recession again with trump at the helm god save us.
6
a global stock crash that would hurt the true backers of the Trump administration could be the remedy to situation. If that cascades to a real estate crash, then maybe this issue would go away. If a financial adviser were to say, "sorry Mr President your new worth is down one billion dollars, and Trump Hotel occupancy has fallen 30%, then maybe something would change.
1
Full scale liquidity crises are only harder to contain as they expand.
1
I am an American & I seemingly care a lot more about our country than the nincompoop-in-chief, who so mechanically shouts “America First” without the remotest understanding of how the international commerce world works, to the benefit of us all.
I am also a wine producer & exporter in Chile, with China far and away the largest market for our wines, I should be applauding the idiotic moves by our nincompoop which have provoked reciprocal tariffs by China on American wines, which effectively will cause them to disappear from the very competitive wine market there.
On the contrary I am not, indeed I am very sad & worried. We already are working our winery at full capacity 24 hours a day & don’t need any more demand. But the impact on the US economy, which effects the well being of all Americans, frightens me.
6
Since Trump is completely dishonest, with his only goal being that of enriching himself as much as possible, no matter how many laws and ethical points he breaks, I think I know why he started this world trade war: He knew the Chinese would retaliate with tariffs on soybeans and pork, so he borrowed $1-2 billion from Putin or one of his henchmen to sell the soybean and pork futures short just before he announced that he would be placing the tariffs on steel and aluminum. Now that the markets have crash, he has made a cool $10-20 billion on the futures market, and can repay his pal Putin. It may take a few years to untangle the complicated mess of fake companies used as intermediaries in these highly illegal transactions, but since this is how he could get really rich, I bet this is indeed what he must have done. Meanwhile, the Iowa farmers will all suffer terribly, but will still vote for him because he is such a jerk that they love him.
3
Building pyramids of derivatives on top of physical assets creates a casino where hedge funds play high-rollers.
1
It's not trade wars that are straining the world, it is overpopulation
1
One cannot even have a reasonable discussion about what drives international migrations with the religious backers of Trump.
1
Mr Trump ruined TTIP negotiations between EU and US and started to build tariff barriers between US and it's western allies and partners. You can shoot fast six times, but then you have to reload.
1
I think Trump is enjoying the chaos he is creating.
8
Maybe you've noticed none of the electrical products imported from China is UL approved. Plug it in and take your chances. It seems that Americans are quite ready to trade safety for saving a few pennies.
Now look at your imported prescription drugs from China. Are the plants sanitary ? Who inspects their low cost ingredients ?
Once again, you take your chances.
2
One can only imagine the smiles and laughs in Putin’s inner circle.
Finally, revenge!
8
You really hit it right.
2
The last time this sort of trading adventure was initiated was during the Herbert Hoover administration. Does anyone read history? We know the only reading Trump does, with all the vast resources afforded him by government, military, security and the rest, we all know by the way he communicates that his main information sources are Fox and Friends. Jeeezus, eh?
Anyway, anyone even passingly literate (of history) knows where this current opera goes. So I suggest folks get ready for the next "stanza" in this Trumpian opus. Me thinks it's gonna be a scream for more than a few. It promises to be a real nail biter because it is being conducted by a person more an intellectual knuckle dragger.
John~
American Net'Zen
2
When are the cowards in our GOP in Congress going to call out this deranged president and exercise their power of "checks and balances" as this Putin-directed-Trump continues to create complete chaos and catapult our world economy into a tailspin.
Vladimir could not be happier.
8
there are no more "nice" words to define this administration and it's followers in congress..... Sadists one and all... greedy, narcissist, evil, etc all those words can have multiple uses as a description but a Sadist has only one definition and cannot be diluted
4
Good.
Like many of you reading this, I have a personal interest in the stock market because of my 401k.
And, everyone has an interest in keeping a strong economy in general.
But, I'll gladly accept 1000 point drops in the Dow and reports of economic woes, shrinking jobs numbers and GDP figures…
IF-
It means that the Democrats can stink up Donald Trump and his policies and portray him (accurately) as the one person responsible for putting us on his crazy path to economic instability.
I'll take the pain, and his tribe will take it even worse than I will.
GOOD!
When the Democrats pin it on him forcefully, maybe the spell will finally break.
President Mistake.
When the dollar pinch hits, it'll knock some sense into the hypnotized Americans. (Just pray the banks he deregulates don't blow us up like they did in 2008 or a lot of you will be living in your car)
I'll accept some pain.
Democrats, get ready to blame.
Make him and his cabal pay.
Bury them for a hundred years.
7
I predict that much as you might like that economic tornado that so many Democrats predicted, you will simply join the many millions who were wrong in November. Please enjoy the view and the ride.
Great reporting.
So there goes the stock market on another trump roller coaster.
1
How about more information on the obviously Asian “ jacket factory” in your featured photo. Looks to me like the Chinese who have swarmed Canada’s major cities in recent years are doing an end run on the “ Made in China” issue, merely setting up in other countries as they have in Italy(there have been numerous articles and an excellent book on this subject” Gomorrah” I believe, describing how Chinese Factory owners take over thanks to globalization, out of business domestic factories, bring in their own cheap, mostly illegal labor, and produce garments with the Made in Canada or Made in Italy Label, no matter how you label it it’s still jobs lost in the citizens of the host country and profits going to China or invested in the no longer affordable to locals real estate. This is not “ free trade”, this is undercutting American or Canadian or Italian Labor its prevalence is well known and under reported on as its not, “anti tariff, anti Trump”, preferring the status quo, they are not concerned with America’s working class, they are more interested in profits for multinationals and cheap goods with no look towards the future when “Their” jobs are gone as well and no one will be left to buy even the cheap goods. Let’s not become so polarized that we all shoot each other in the foot, like it or not we are Americans and we should first and foremost be concerned about other Americans, if not your turn at unemployment or bankruptcy will come up in this “winner take all society”.
3
I would add to my comment that Trump absurdly went after Aluminum etc. with his Canadian Tariffs rather than the garment industry because his own daughter is so heavily involved with Chinese Companies engaged in the garment business, (as are his own companies and The Kushner family so heavily involved and dependent on Asian connections and capital as well as Middle Eastern money)Having said that, The Canadians(and I know lots of them who winter in Florida) are no less happy about the Asian Invasion than the middle class Americans in California and The Pacific Northwest as their children are priced out of homes by wealthy off shore money, the Canadians along with the Australians and New Zealanders and Brits(too late, it took Brexit)have all put taxes on foreign money buying up their countries, so far the taxes aren’t punitive enough to have much effect. Amusingly enough in a recent NYT article on the subject of foreign business taking over in Tuscany where lots of Chinese have bought out Italian factories crushed by globalization the most common names of new births are Chang, Wong etc. reflecting the impact of largely illegal immigration in Italy. If our friends Europeans, Aussies, Kiwis and Canucks hope to retain any of their identity something must be done, the world is well on its way to being colonized by Asians, their sheer numbers, ruthless business tactics and the complicity of their host country “ partners” are pretty much throwing the rest of us under a bus.
4
Trump said that the USA was 'like the piggy bank that everyone's robbing." Of course he thinks that since he, 'Javanka,' Pruitt and all the other thieves running the country are looting the piggy bank for as much as they can get away with.
7
Too bad Trump couldn’t pay attention ‘earning’ his degree at Wharton long enough to get through a macroeconomics course that even a liberal arts major could understand.
Why this country celebrates a ‘businessman’ who inherited his wealth and connections from his family as ideal for the presidency is beyond me. Even if there were a correlation between business acumen and government leadership, this so-called president hasn’t demonstrated competency in either role.
5
In real life, what happens to blustering bullies who barge their way to the front of the line?
1
Clearly , Trump is a stooge of Russia and China ( who both pay him lots of money) and does whatever for whoever bribes him best. Your reporting seems to miss the obvious. And we all suffer. He will destroy us all.
4
Well, if we do have a recession, I hope it's soon, so Christine Lagarde can say "I told you so" and go back to her ivory tower.
1
Since Trump has never been in industry I guess he isn't aware of the just in time principal adopted by most manufacturers to cut down on dead money sitting around on warehouse shelves.
If your supply chain is completely within the USA no problem but if it's not well that's another story.
4
An unnecessary war, brought on as a personal grievance by by a tantrum-throwing malignant narcissist, who is subsuming the Republican Party into his persona.
8
As an American who voted against Trump I suggest the following. World citizens, use your purchasing power to make our country PAY for their ignorance. Canadians...show solidarity by skipping your winter season in Florida. Make red state Florida pay. Europeans...skip those trips to NYC. Travel on your continent. To our Mexican friends...skip purchasing goods from the USA. Brazilians...skip those buying trips and vacations in South Florida. THIS IS THE TIME to show your economic muscle and solidarity, where ever and when ever you can. Don't delay, start today. The ignorant and arrogant Americans must pay a price for the world they're destroying.
5
The Atlanta Fed 0n June 14 forcasts a US Q2 GDP of slightly over 4% growth! This article is just another anti Trump opinion peice not a factual economics article. Next article will be about how a peace agreement with North Korea is terrible for defense companies stocks and their families.
Forecasts are forecasts. Reality is reality. Let's wait and see reality!
Adam Smith is very disappointed with President Trump
Holy cow, Trump hasn't seen anything he doesn't want to break.
4
Europe, next time he goes abroad grab him and jail him for Crimes Against Humanity.
5
So what, if anything, does this fear of a trade war have to do with the profitable occupation of the Oval Office of our White House by Donald John Trump and his family while beholden to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin?
4
And he has not even been in office two years!
It is sad that the world has to endure the crass political actions of your president, who is creating all this turmoil to appeal to his base in the fall midterm elections.
4
Global economics is a balancing act. Requires a deft touch; knowledge, experience. DT is a bull in a china shop. Has neither the knowledge or experience. Not good. The worst is the destruction of the trust that allows the stability we all have been enjoying. It's all toast. This was/is predictable . . . just as the symptoms of narcissist personality are predictable. In fact, the one accentuates the other. Kind of a negative synergy. Please, do not be shocked, dismayed, etc. It's what we "signed up for."
4
Trump is like an animal who has been cornered. He sees no way to defend his corrupt and treasonous actions and so he is doing everything in his power to distract the world from what he did. At least a global economic meltdown is better than a global thermal nuclear war.
1
Where is Batman to rescue us from the Joker?
2
What America really needs is a Brutus!
In addition to the headwinds to the global economy mentioned in the article, China's economy is beginning to weaken and its businesses are still saddled with large levels of debt putting the country at financial risk.
If China's economy tanks, we may see a much bigger "Asian Contagion" than occurred in the 90"s.
This escalating trade war is not helping.
1
As once stated by a child, “trade wars are easy to win”. I don’t think so but we’ll see how that goes for America with Trump calling the shots. His lying and total lack of comprehension of international trade does not instill confidence in his ability to lead to any successful conclusion.
8
“Across Europe, steel makers fret about an indirect consequence of Mr. Trump’s tariffs — cheap Chinese steel previously destined for the United States, now redirected to their continent.”
No wonder Chinese are confident of winning the trade war in the short-term, because Beijing could increase its influence in Europe. This makes European companies worry, as they might end up importing more from China than the other way round.
Russia is not affected by Trump’s trade war, because he knows it won’t hurt his buddy, Putin.
Trump embraces simplistic worldviews. He prefers burning old bridges to repairing them. Should a global crisis erupt and he needed allies, he would get a taste of isolation.
11
"Russia is not affected by Trump’s trade war, because he knows it won’t hurt his buddy, Putin"
President Trump's embrace of our energy sector has kept the price of oil and natural gas at historically low levels. As the only source of cash available to Putin low fossil fuel prices hurt him and helps American consumers. Two things that I'm sure do not endear president Trump to Putin and shatter any simplistic view to the contrary
The world economy is working so well for corporate American and for maximization of profits that nobody who counts wants to "strain" it. American workers don't count.
2
To be fair no worker counts, domestic or foreign when it comes to corporate profit.
3
We may be able to win a trade war with Canada and Mexico; we may win one against the European Union; we also may win one with China, but a multi-front trade war with all? Seems like a very bad strategy for any kind of war and enormous hubris, or profound ignorance, to launch such a plan.
6
This "fear of trade war" story is another media invention to try to derail the Trump economic train. The simple fact is that America's "allies" need to start paying more for their own defense, and they also need to stop riding the U.S. trade gravy train. GATT, NAFTA and all the other "free trade" agreements of the last 30 years put U.S. manufacturing at a decided disadvantage, and Trump realizes this must change. Our allies need to deal with the world as it is, rather than the free ride they've been getting for a generation.
The inception of GATT and WTO was mainly driven by the US. Not us "false" allies exploiting the poor USA.
I also fail to see how there is a line to be drawn between the defense budget of states and the concept of free trade. No free rides anywhere, not for us, not for the USA either. Trade is about win-win, not about one side to win and the other to lose.
7
If the U.S. responds with another $100 billion in tariffs for China, China will retaliate. Then Trump will surely retaliate. The cycle repeats. Thus, it's becoming a trade war.
1
The most telling comment in this whole article is the one from European steel makers. Their biggest concern is that the Chinese "dumped" steel will end up in their markets, instead of the U.S.. The U.S. has been the market-of-last resort for too long, and Trump is trying to change it.
If I think like a Libertarian then the loss of manufacturing is due to the workers themselves. How so? Those in coal, steel, and auto didn't adequately pay attention to what was happening on the international scene and warn their children to get an education and skills for the 21st century. Instead millions told their sons they could get them a job in the mine, or the assembly line. College was thought of as unnecessary or only for entitled liberal elites. Foreign nations saw opportunity with their lower labor costs and unregulated environmental laws, producing steel, and autos at dramatically lower costs. Foreign nations offered multilateral companies tax breaks and low labor costs making it a no brainer to build manufacturing plants in their countries.
If I think like a Republican then the fault lies with foreign nations stealing jobs, trade secrets and subsidizing industries making it impossible for for American companies to compete.
If I think like a Democrat then the fault lies with our governments failure to provide an equal opportunity to pursue advanced educational degrees. Greedy companies looking for the best way to enrich their CEOs and shareholders at the expense of workers.
11
An issue with that is the opportune time for brain development for learning is in the childhood. If someone had low education or didn't graduate high school, chances are they won't be able to understand more advanced concepts required to get a college degree. My community college had a student group where one of the faculty members would preside each meeting. He told us that not once in the history of the college did someone with low test scores in every area graduate from the school, which he thought meant the school was essentially stealing people's money on a hopeless cause.
The US states undermine each other too.
Well, not that it hasn't before. Real of Glass-Steagall (by Clinton), set into motion events that led to the Great Recession. Trump, by his own, unchecked executive order actions, is setting into motion a Great Depression. The world was reeling when the US effectively gave it the Great Recession. So, if Trump wants to isolate the US, the world will be more than happy to oblige. First, by giving Trump two walls to protect Canada and Mexico from the US. And, by stopping all sea and air trade with the US.
Trump thinks the world needs the US economy; it doesn't. The result of what Trump is doing will turn the US into a second rate backwater. Internally, it will be tearing itself apart with the political blame game and looking for scapegoats; to persecute. So, the world will need to protect itself from the monster Trump, his supporters, and party are creating.
6
Glass Steagall was a relic of the time when monetary policy simply sought to maintain stable yield curves. After Congress abrogated fiscal policy to the Federal Reserve Bank via the "dual mandate", tinkering with interest rates was the only tool it had to affect employment rates. In fact, the whole structure of interest rate derivatives is bets on what the Fed will do with interest rates to affect employment. All of this made Glass Steagall untenable.
I have to correct you here.
You claim: "that repeal of Glass-Steagall (by Clinton), set into motion events that led to the Great Recession."
For one, that was NOT Clinton policy.
As with most bills Clinton had to sign while in office, it was a Republican congress that passed the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act.
Clinton signed it, but it was the GOP that authored it and passed it with a majority in both the House and Senate.
The names give it away, Gramm, Leach, and Bliley were Republicans.
Secondly, numerous economists and academics have weighed in, the general consensus is that the repeal of Glass-Steagall had nothing to do with the recession.
In short, bad mortgage underwriting, poor work by the ratings agencies and a securitization market gone crazy and corruption at every level.
This allowed bankers to lie to naive, inexperienced loan applicants selling them sub-prime loans even when they had good credit, not informing buyers that the loans would eventually lead to much higher interest rates and payments for a variety of reasons, causing people to be unable to pay for the increased mortgage rates and in some cases huge balloon payments.
The mortgage brokers were making money hand over fist in commissions on the sub-prime loans, and didn't want it to stop.
Yes, we need more stringent regulations on the banks, but Glass-Steagall, would not have prevented the recession. Honest mortgage brokers who have integrity and honest business practices, would have done far more.
2
It is too bad that Trump is called a businessman, but he has almost ZERO experience in the complex world of integrated global manufacturing. All his silly hotels and golf courses are no match to a single steel mill or Ford Motor Company assembly plant. As a result, we are heading down a very slippery slope where our economy will falter and once the rest of the world works around us there will be no turning back for them. The next generation of Americans will really pay for Trump's ignorance, which is for some reason totally supported in the same way those who supported Hitler right until the end of WWII.
4
On a personal level Trump's tariff moves have made retirement planning more difficulty. Non-American readers, if it helps lessen your worries at all, there are many Americans who don't like Trump and don't consider him competent or moral.
19
I personally, in Finland and in EU, would like to see our good relationship with US continue. I think EU and US has many common interests in world wide politics , security and trade.
Of course there is a leader who sees things opposite and who would like to see our relations between US and EU deteriorating.
I don't pretend to understand economics. Trump shouldn't either.
20
What we fund publicly with fiscal policy is immune to international trade. Too bad more than half of US discretionary spending is half of the entire global military budget.
4
So didn’t Trump proose zero tariffs and free trade at G7? And what was the response? (Crickets). So, are Tarriffs OK so long as it’s not the US imposing them ? I think Trump is merely stating that our Trading Partners imposing Tarriffs on US goods and making them less competitive is no longer OK, so let’s do away with them altogether, no?
Trump believes that no corporations should have to pay any kind of tax.
6
The idea of TTIP was to get rid of tariffs. But Mr. Trump didn't want to continue the negotiations. It's pity.
2
From my perspective, I fail to see what Trump has done to benefit the citizens of the US. He stated he was going to put America First, but what it appears is that he put Trump first. He has shown interest in doing business with various other countries under his own business flag. He has definitely demonstrated his disdain for other countries and is doing a great job at ostracizing us from other countries. All I have seen is reality tv show president is a lot of talk, no action in areas that need action and the need to one-up our previous president that didn’t do right for the US either, but no one seems to remember that. The grand experiment of running our government and its institutions as a business is failing. We need to make America great again by voting in Nov.
9
My Mother’s 92. She suffered through the Great Depression as a child. She mentioned the other day, ‘my generation is almost gone, and the others have no idea how bad is the coming storm’
33
Bernie Sanders is as good a source as any on the effects of NAFTA. As he notes in Our Revolution: “In 1993, during the debate over NAFTA, President Bill Clinton promised us that the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada would “create a million jobs in the first five years.”
“Instead of creating a million American jobs, the Economic Policy Institute found, NAFTA destroyed more than 850,000 American jobs. In fact, every state in the nation has lost jobs as a result of NAFTA.”
Many saw so-called free trade as David Ricardo lectured so long ago a mutual blessing.
America is now finding some win some lose and the Homeland can be a big loser in some industries and across the economy.
What will follow with ‘Trade War’ will shake out new relation that could be beneficial with new winners. Industry will not as Trump hopes ‘come back,’ but Robots roles will -- everywhere.
4
Robots. I agree. Robots work 24/7/365. They don't demand more salary and they don't strike.
2
Yet.
NAFTA and a number of other such trade agreements were essentially written for and by Corporate America and its global counterparts. It diminished the power of organized labour while amplifying corporate power. When I say that it weakened organized labour I should mention that this was the case in the US, Canada and Mexico.
That being said, NAFTA has been international law for 20 years. As a result the economies of all 3 countries have become interwoven and interdependent. The US can’t simply unilaterally declare the agreement null and void, and doing would mutually disastrous.
NY Times: It would be extremely helpful if you would publish one or more stories describing, quantitatively, the current tariff situation. For the major trading goods categories (e.g., agricultural, autos, manufacturing equipment), what are the tariffs between the US and its major trading partners, what are the trade balances, and which companies are involved? My guess is that with the exception of China, there is little reason for the US to be instigating a trade war. Anecdotal stories like this can help support the facts, but without the facts these stories are potentially misleading.
26
Totally agree with you. I have a friend who says no trade war is looming; so let's call it a "multi-lateral tariff dispute."
2
In overall figures, the tariff discrepancy between the Eu and the USA is marginal. If I recall, overall we talk about a margin of 1,4% whereby EU imposes higher tariffs than the US. In essence, EU typically do not target certain countries with specific tariffs, tariffs are typically identical for all 3rd countries like the US (or Japan or China, for instance) who wish to bring their goods into the EU. And seeing how well Japan is doing with importing its cars shows that the people in the EU do cherish well built and reliable cars with a good mileage even if they are built outside the EU. That leaves us wondering how come US built cars do not manage to establish a larger share of the EU market.
I'll leave it up to you to come up with the answer.
II agree. The Times needs to lay it out, and not just goods, but also services because where we may have a deficit in goods, we usually always have a surplus in services trade.
It is evident that many Trump 95% (ers) are attempting to read articles in the legitimate press which exposes their altruistic lack of knowledge related to geopolitics. Reading through the comments, it is clear which readers are Trump loyalists and painfully evident they share his naive view of how things work.
Asian economies, China in particular, grew to mega economic status because of the American corporations shuttering production plants in the U.S. and striking partnerships with the Chinese government and other regions in Asia; your Supreme Leader and his family included. This forced distributors of many products to deal with Asia since there were no homegrown producers who could match the low prices including ULC. Anyone who believes the American economy is on solid ground is in for a rude awakening by 2020 and we can only hope that Trump loyalists are hit just as hard as the rest of us.
30
Are we a nation of "Us vs. Them"?
Many people who voted for Obama voted for Trump, that has been shown -- Michigan being a classic case. Were they good people who went bad, or like many Americans of all categories . realizing 'WE' have problems not being dealt with; likely the latter. Time for us to come together and seek intelligent leadership. Any out there? Trump is disruptive enough many are pleased with just that -- seeing no options.
3
The option was a highly qualified, highly intelligent but flawed wonk named Hillary Clinton. "But..her emails!" " I just don't like her! " No matter how awful Trump behaved, voters did not see him as flawed or unlikeable. Please stop making excuses for people who voted to take a wrecking ball to our government or to disrupt everything as a means to deal with problems. You know the saying, "any jackass can kick a barn down, but it takes a good carpenter to build one". I have a jackass, and he'd be a better president than Trump-more gravitas, and he doesn't tweet or email. Can we come together? I'm not optimistic. Have you been following the Republican primaries? The progressive movement? We're going farther and farther apart.
Who can forget Trump on the David Letterman Show, when Dave had a hand full of Trump’s line of ties. Where were they made, Mr. Trump? Oh look, they were made in China, and Bangladesh.
1
Watching a panel of international trade experts on a non-American media outlet, it appears that the US is being regarded as a “rogue” state by the rest of the world.
Nobody is buying Trump’s claim that the country who’s 5% of the world’s population consuming 25% of the world’s resources is getting a bad deal and is demanding more.
If Donald Trump thinks that Canada, Mexico, Europe, China, Japan, Brazil and South Korea are each going to bend to his will, he has another thing coming.
Meanwhile Americans will find prices at home shooting up while its exports are rejected abroad, and more of its farms and factories face bankruptcy.
52
If the production of goods are brought back to US from Mexico and China should the workers in US to be payed equal salaries like workers are payed in Mexico and China ?
Is the productivity and marketing of US cars based on tariffs or good quality and efficient production ?
3
The US is in pole position with the strongest economy.
Once Germany, China and Canadian economies begin to tank, the leaders will have to capitulate to us in order to save themselves politically.
We will ( and can) take some pain without throwing the economy in neutral, the other countries, not so much, the pain will be too acute.
1
Or your trading partners will view these actions as evidence of an unstable American political system and scramble to find new markets. China is increasing purchases of soybeans from Brazil. Canada can start buying more produce from Latin America. The EU can shut down American service industries, where the US has a surplus.
The world could also drop the American dollar as its reserve currency, resulting in increased borrowing costs to American consumers.
Yes, the US can ride this out, but it won’t be pain free.
Finally, please explain to me how the US is taken advantage of by Canada. The US has a trade surplus with Canada, a country 1/10 the size of the US.
35
The trade surplus with Canada includes services, something often omitted in these conversations.
The Trump mob already looks like a bawling collection of people in deep pain to me.
Years ago, my patent lawyer gave me this advice about dealing with Asian companies:
If it costs them more to fight a lawsuit than to pay a royalty, they'll license your patents. If it doesn't, they will steal them.
A trade war hurts both sides, and for that reason is always a last resort. But low-wage nations like China have been using the fear of a trade war to fleece us for years, and deindustrialization has now reached the point at which it now threatens our social fabric.
The Asian countries will continue to cheat us in any way they can, until the costs to them are greater than the benefits of doing so.
11
Patents are nothing more than a cause of action to file lawsuits. Anything one has to go to court for in the US quickly becomes a costly dice-roll starting with what judge is assigned to the case, so they really are useless for almost everyone.
7
There are today 10 top notch Engineering Science Universities in the world today rankings published by U.S. News & World Report in 2017, 4 in the US, 4 in China.
Each year, China now graduates four times as many students as the United States (1.3 million vs. 300,000) in the subjects of math, science, engineering, and technology.
Don’t spend too much grief on stolen knowledge; worry whether the US will hold its own.
5
You are totally right!
1
Over the past year the price of a barrel of oil is up 45%, Canadian lumber is up 80%, and according to the US Chamber of Commerce steel is up 40% mainly because the tariffs have given US steel producers a golden opportunity to bump up prices. And all this is before any serious retaliation has been experienced. This is going cost American consumers and ultimately workers.
30
The cost to American consumers, and Americans in general will be the temporary tax cut will evaporate as we pay more for finished goods. The price of gasoline and diesel has already eroded any tax savings.
18
Why doesn't the Trump Cult acknowledge this -- don't they drive? When the economy tanks they'll still be blaming Hillary's emails!
So the US imposes tariffs on high value products like steel, aluminum and electronics and China retaliates with tariffs on low value products like wine, pork and soybeans, while adding to the tariffs it already imposes on cars and chemicals. What’s interesting is that with the corporate tax and regulatory reforms the Trump administration has gifted American industry the US can easily ramp up its mills and manufacturing base to compensate for the imported products affected. Conversely, the Chinese haven’t demonstrated an ability to feed the billions of it citizens who have become dependent on American farmers to do it for them. If the Chinese import less agricultural products from the US that means that food prices, which have increased markedly over the years will drop for Americans.
I haven’t seen any quantitative analysis on the net impact the tariffs will have on the American consumer but I for one spend a lot more money on food than products manufactured with aluminum and steel. I suspect the Chinese do too and the price they pay has just gone up.
It hasn’t been widely reported but the Chinese economy is enduring historically low growth right now. With fewer trade surplus dollars flowing into their economy from the US and a lot more hungry citizens I suspect president Trump will achieve the trade concessions that has eluded all past administrations.
3
The laws of supply and demand support your argument, assuming food producers sell less overseas and then flood the market here. This assumes US consumers have a reason to buy American as imports of non American food decline. BUT, there are no tariff increases to food imports, therefore no reason for prices to fall even if US producers lower prices on like goods. The margin hungry grocers may see their cost of goods fall but will these lower prices be reflected in the price consumers pay. For me, no they won't. The Gordon Gecko "Greed is Good" thesis holds.
1
I'm not sure where you are getting your figures from on the Chinese economy, but I just came from there and there is so much money sloshing around there, it is frightening. The national bird could be the construction crane. In fact I have just travelled through Australia and 30 other countries in the region, the Middle East, South America and Europe. There is a Chinese presence in virtually every one of the countries I visitied and the US is being laughed at or ignored. Many of the citizens of those countries are alarmed at the Chinese infiltration, the swiftness with which it has happened and the effect it is having on their economies, but the horse is out of the barn. The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, they have a plan, we just seem to be banging around bumping into walls and living quarter to quarter as big business reaps the profits. I would not underestimate the Chinese plan to dominate the economy of the earth. We never seem to learn.
25
The world trading system as it exists now was largely built and designed by the US since the end of WWII chiefly to benefit American businesses and interests. It is a product of the American hegemony and it is being dismantled by an American President. To who’s interest?
The system that will ultimately emerge will not be written by the US. The US cannot challenge the rest of the world to a trade war and expect to win. Even if the US acts against each of its trading partners individually and unilaterally, its trading partners can and will act in concert to resist.
11
If this is to bring manufacturing plants and jobs back to the United Satates, let’s concentrate on why they aren’t here.
America businesses sold themselves and American workers for borderline slave wages, zero regulations and tons of money across the globe.
In return, they got extremely rich and just got a giant tax break for the trouble.
37
Don’t forget the role of the American consumer. As manufacturing shifted to low-cost countries consumers just bought more and more foreign made lower priced goods and drove out any chance of higher cost domestic goods. So we enjoyed low prices, low inflation and higher sales. That said, other areas of our economy have been and are booming including exporting goods and services around the world. Even many specialty manufacturing sectors. As a society though we tend to ignore how economic shifts create winners and losers and blame the workers in non-competitive industries for their plight.
That said the trade deficit is not a problem. This administration lacks the most basic knowledge of how an economy works. That is what is truly scaring the world. And it should scare us.
24
Lynne, yes, but what were they supposed to do?
I consult for an old-line American manufacturer and I can tell you that they are struggling. With benefits, an hour of labor costs them $70. How can they compete against low-wage countries where pay is a dollar and hour and they can use the local kindergarten to dump toxic waste?
The answer of course is that they can't. Only in a few small niches where the Asians haven't shown interest.
We desperately need tariffs and sadly, after Clinton abandoned labor and signed NAFTA, neither party has been willing to stand up for the American worker and, by extension, American industry.
5
In other words, Josh, American consumers should pay higher prices so we can hold on to a few thousand jobs attached to 19th-century commodities.
Brilliant.
Sadly, if the US economy is hurt (likely) by Trump, his supporters will just double-down and become even more virulent ... and more militantly (and militarily) nationalist.
20
Yes, so trying to convince them to vote for Democrats is insanity.
Offer real financial help to workers, paid for by taxing the insane wealth of global billionaires, so that you can build the base of the Democratic Party big enough to vote them out.
"Just vote" is not the solution, because voting is necessary but not sufficient.
Read, write, call, research, sing, act, paint, protest, canvas, engage in creative non-violent direct action, and show non-voters that you are not just good cop running interference for bad cop, but actually on their side, and fighting for them everyday.
The Republican base is fired up that they have a blatant and proud liar blowing up our system of government. If you are waiting for November, it may never come.
What if Mueller and a bunch of prosecutors are a threat to Trump's presidency and his freedom? Do you expect him to go quietly? Most of the Republican Party, Fox, talk radio, and the rest of the liars and be fans of liars are going to protect Trump to the end, no matter what damage it does to the country.
We are so far past a place of smart people disagreeing then finding common ground to create smart incremental changes.
The Republican Part has been calling our government the enemy since Ronald Reagan, and are now actively dismantling the institutions of our Republic. They are engaged in civil war, and Democrats are still bringing cupcakes to a nuclear war.
I'm not saying lie and cheat like a Republican.
Wield the Truth!
4
Very interesting article. A few things to add:
1.) None of this was necessary as the economy was clearly strengthening in the final 6 1/2 years of the Obama presidency. This was a completely self-inflicted wound, masterminded by Donald Trump against his own country.
2.) Congress placed tariff power in the White House for issues of national security. There is no evidence any of this is for national security and Congress could, if they wished, challenge these tariffs and/or revoke this power. Of course they won't in loyalty to their new-found figurehead. Yet another reason to clean the House in 2018.
This is yet another issue Dems could run on in 2018 if they can get their act together, in addition to protecting healthcare, the environment, promoting gun safety, and opposing tax cuts for millionaires.
28
It's too late to oppose tax cuts. Now you have to reverse last year's $5 trillion in tax cuts for the rich, and since they are going to call it a tax increase anyway, make it a big tax increase above last year's base line.
This country had double the growth when the top tax rate was 70% and the corporate rate was 50% Supply Side Economics is a provable lie that is crippling the economy. Democratic Party complicity in Supply Side Economics and Free Trade for global corporations, nor for the people, made Trump possible.
Stop trying to lure back Reagan Democrats. They are not coming back.
Grow the base and overwhelm them in the voting booth and on the streets.
6
It's an exercise in gamesmanship to see who blinks first. Will our allies dial back their trade restrictions or will we capitulate and remove the tariffs imposed? My bet is on our allies meeting Trump halfway.
@George
The faith of the Trump true believers is touching but doesn't bear much resemblance to reality. Suggest you check what's happened to the price of oil, lumber and steel over the past year.
16
I'm not so sure about a halfway meeting. Betrayal of a mutual trust can have consequences over the long term. Canadians are disinclined to yield much ground, given the recent insults to our PM and to our country in general. We take this very personally. We've been staunch friends to the US for many generations, lost our own dead in 9/11, sheltered American air travelers during that tragedy, fought and died beside our American comrades in several wars, and joined ourselves with the US through family ties. We're regular tourists for whom American destinations have always been attractive, but their luster is dimmed somewhat. We can, and probably will, travel more often elsewhere or stay within our own vast land.
Now we also seek other markets for our products and those appear to be opening up for us. There's a growing movement to buy less from the US. We're polite people as a rule, slow to anger. We apologize; we make exceptions. We try to be nice. But perhaps those days are over for awhile. I just bought a new SUV, and chose a Hyundai, which is of course South Korean in origin. My two most recent - now former - vehicles were Chevrolets. My daughter also owns a Hyundai. They are incredibly popular here.
Thus far in 2018, we've bought more than 74% of total US exports. The US has bought slightly more than 15% of its imports from us. Time to reassess? I think so. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/highlights/top/top1804yr...
12
By allies do you mean Russia, China, and NK? We have NO others at this point.
Greenhouse gas emissions are almost directly proportional to economic activity in high emissions countries like the US and China. So for those of us who are more worried about climate change than about how much our new BMW is going to cost, why isn't disruption of international trade good news?
1
Sadly, Agriculture Committee Chairman Mike Conaway of Texas has presented the House of Representatives with a farm bill that does not adequately help farmers critical to global food exports, to help feed up to 20 million starving people in the developing world, and to sustaining the agricultural economy in the U.S.
Shame on him.
http://www.joelsolkoff.com/playing-politics-with-food-exports/
2
It’s interesting that freight traffic has flattened. Often, transportion stocks are leading indicators for the stock market.
11
Congratulations Mr. Trump. India has just retaliated with import duties on steel which we buy from United States. Thanks to your great negotiation skills several of my business partners in United States will go out of business taking away jobs in USA. This is just the brink of what awaits United States and possibly the world at large.
35
Dinesh,
Sorry but I'm skeptical of your claim about your American "partners" going out of business. More likely you're speaking of yourself.
With his erratic child like behaviour and ill-defined America First sloganeering the damage Trump has caused to the already weakening international order and the global trade regime is unlikely to be undone even after he demits the office. The worst victim of his ill-timed trade tariff war will only be America which will have enough time to repent over its choice of Trump as the President.
41
Prof.,
I don't know what its like in India but here in the US things are a lot better since Donald Trump was elected president. If the "international order" is weakened that says more about its leadership than ours. Perhaps it is they that should "repent"
Identify "better", please. Stocks may be up (today) but gas is higher, steel is higher, non-executive pay is either stagnant or a tiny bit up, and so on. The fact that the rich are richer does not make for a 'better" country.
2
The international order was created by the US, for the benefit of American business. Whatever replaces it will not be.
3
Why would the United States want to destroy a world economy that was thriving? Is the Occam's Razor assumption that the simplest answer is most likely the correct one, words we should live by? Yes.
Donald Trump wants a Trump Tower Moscow, he wants access to Chinese trademarks, he wants to talk and have people listen like they never have before, and he couldn't care less if he's impeached as long as he can tee-off at one of his properties in the near future. He was employed by an entity TBD and he did his job. Occam's Razor.
28
Will $15 billion really matter in two of the largest economies in the world $20 and $14 trillion respectively?
2
The two largest economies will, most likely strike an agreement, but if they don't, there's infrastructure to repair in the USA. The market can be compensated by having the government create jobs for infrastructure. I am reminded of president Franklin Roosevelt and his infrastructure projects. This is nothing new and it proved instrumental during the Great Depression in the 1930's
5
The model FDR used and the model Trump will use are totally different. So far, the Trump administration has done little to address our infrastructure problem.
Historically, trade wars cause enormous economic damage to both sides and other countries not directly involved. Trump the bully is certainly getting his way. And we are all going to pay for it.
2
Infrastructure like bridges and highways(and Trump's wall) take steel, which will cost more, tax income is down due to the massive corporate and rich folks tax cut, and so there is less money available to do "infrastructure". We could employ a lot of people rebuilding America, but we can't afford it with Trump-economics.
1
No , it is the rich elites in the USA that have benefited off the backs of the American worker. The workers are unemployed and Trump is right. The elites have gotten rich off China. Time to stop it.
5
“the workers are unemployed and trump is right “
Unemployment is at all time high as of last week. If this continues, WATCH, it is going down all industries not just steel companies. If you can not SEE the big picture, you are about to get a very painful lesson.we are all connected, you win some and you make sure your partners win some. Like it are not, we are in this together, we will go up together (kind of where we were last week) or we all go down
10
You do realize trump is one of them “rich elites in the USA that have benefited off the backs of the American worker”,
don’t you? You do realize his employees at Mar-a-Lago and other trump properties are the same little “brown” people others are now unable to hire, don’t you?
Just look at your MAGA hat’s little label and see where it was manufactured. You also probably know that stateside banks won’t lend trump money and as a consequence he earns that money by laundering russian money.
How about you take the time to visit some of cotton and sorghum farmers in the south of your state and ask them how are they faring under this tariffs war?
So, do please tell me, mr. “time to stop it”, how is trump going to do that? And, why should he want to do that?
Perhaps if you bothered to learn the facts and not just mouth off slogans you may come to an actual understanding of what is really going on.
3
Getting scorched in the fry pan wasn't enough so now he has us jumping into the fire.
America successfully built an intricate post war mechanism of global finance, trade, multi-lateral cooperation, public health and disaster response, and essential aid for poor and emerging countries.
While the focus of the system is economic, it's purpose never was.
After WW1 led a to a wider and worse WW2, a global post war initiative led by the US established the US dollar as the basic unit of international finance, which made trade possible among nations previously restrained by a Babylon of currencies.
Global trade, dollars as the anchor currency, and open markets formed the foundation of a more integrated world that lessened the likelihood of future world wars.
No mistake it's an American world order backed by the world's largest economy and most muscular military in history. It's predicated on an alpha pack leader -- that walks very softly and rarely brandishes a big stick -- to maintain peace and prosperity, however unfair the benefits are distributed among nations. Because of global trade the Fed Reserve alone has the power to shut down almost any nation's economy by not clearing transactions and freezing its national account.
America dominates the world. Put Trump next to that sentence and the immense horror that we did this to ourselves will sink into your soul.
Every day it feels more and more like the definition of national suicide.
54
Not many people outside the US likes Trump, but when they feel the negative impact on the economy they will really hate him. And unfortunately they will also hate the US, since everyone will know what country caused this situation.
46
They already hate the US. And who can blame them.
That hate will leave USA isolated and alone. USA may need this kind of punishment to get its act together and its collective brain healed and working again.
Your end 2017 finding is that trade is flat measuring from air cargo holdings and sea trade. Shouldn't these flat figures been calculated into economic estimates already? Either economic growth comes out more flat first and second quarter, in which case economic output has not yet suffered from the tariff war but due to other factors came out flat. Or another possibility: trade estimates are increasingly not calculated into economic growth rates, ie trade and financial dealings are increasingly two seperate worlds. Finance is sung lose from the actual trade economy. Ie economics from a finance perspective. I've been looking at some finance and trade data which suggests that this is true (also). In any case I refute the claim based on your findings that the tariff war strains the economy already. I think it still has to sink in, but will come later. Behaviour seems to lag the law. Most business is still happy go lucky. What you see is first spats of apprehensiveness. But it can have repercussions once it sinks in, for years to come.
4
Your view makes no sense. Economic estimates are carefully calculated guesses as to future economic behavior. The tariffs are having an impact on trade now, because trade purchases are made on future sales of goods and services. When you buy something at the store the price is as listed, because it is being purchased at that time. When a company is signing a contract for a product or materials, the price has to be agreed upon and future availability is factored in to that price. When companies, like those cited in the article, are redirecting their products to prevent them from reaching their original destination, there are major losses that were not calculated into their original contracted price. As for finance, finance and trade are not the same thing, but some portion of finance is intricately linked to trade. You are on the right track when you say about tariffs, "it can have repercussions ... for years to dome." Throwing a monkey wrench into a huge machine that is humming along at high speed will result in major trouble for us all.
7
"Mr. Trump’s offensive may yet prove to be a negotiating tactic that threatens economic pain to force deals, rather than a move to a full-blown trade war. Americans appear to be better insulated than most from the consequences of trade hostilities.” If that’s so then these trade tactics might be the most concrete expression yet of Mr. Trump's commitment to “America first.” And they would appear to be shortsighted. If this really is a case of our leveraging our better endurance then, after the other countries tap out, our strength will have been affirmed but won’t our stature - painstakingly earned over many decades - be reduced considerably?
It goes beyond economics. I’m reminded of how countries around the world, of every stripe, went all out to express solidarity with the USA after 9/11. I think that was helpful to us in concrete ways. More importantly, it acknowledged and rewarded our fundamental commitment to being (for lack of a better phrase) a considerate sibling in the family of nations. We haven’t always expressed that virtue effectively (or at all) but I think it has become understood globally to be part of our DNA. Maybe I’m overestimating Mr. Trump’s potential to do lasting harm but if we now manage to act with such brazen selfishness as to be looked at afterward with fear rather than admiration, that would be tragic. Just in practical terms, being a global bully is not a sustainable proposition over the long term.
38
Its starting already. After the Trump Administrations ad hominem attacks on our Prime Minister, Canadians are deciding with out government request or requirement to "not buy US". Restaurants are already buying Canadian and European wines rather than California wine. Canadian "Snowbirds" are opting to take their winter vacations to Cuba, Mexico, and the Caribbean rather than the US, any online products that have a non-US source are being ordered from non-US sources. This is what happens when Trump publicly sates "Canadians will have to pay a lot of money for what Justin said". Who knows how widespread this will get but everyone I've talked to up here is already quite good with this change in buying habits.
78
We deeply apologize for our so-called president.
1
Trump has demonstrated repeatedly that his tenure in office is a threat to norms and practices that have brought the world together and created great prosperity since the end of WWII. This order is now being put at risk due to the actions of one unhinged individual, and the time has passed for the congress to take steps to remove him from office. Contact your GOP representatives in DC and tell them that either Trump goes, or they do.
37
Yes Expat is exactly right. This is a world crisis created by the enormous ego of one uninformed and unhinged individual. And Congress is sitting idle.
First - the Chinese should reconsider feeding their pigs soybeans - more estrogen and genetically-engineered soy beans no one needs, save for the people who produce them.
Second - Global trade concerns? How about U.S. citizens ensuring that their municipalities are spending collected taxes prudently, efficiently, and without prejudice - and add into this, the expenditures of school districts.
Remember how, recently, "transparency," was THE word and concept, (which should translate into "ethics" and fiscal responsibility? No more, and it is getting worse. Can even one hamlet in the U.S. honestly claim full transparency now? "Global" is easier, isn't it.
3
Republicans are bad economic stewards, not only for America, but the world. Examine graphical overlays of fossil fuels prices during the times they held power. Fossil fuels prices always go up under Republicans and decline under Democrats. If you look at those overlays, you will note the glaring fact that the root of our economy, oil, rose to a remarkable 148 dollars per barrel in July 2008, thus precipitating the great recession. During House Speaker Boehner's tenure a decade ago, the Republicans quite publicly touted the idea of "Austerity" within government, that after receiving widespread media coverage, was realized not only in American spending habits but also spread throughout Europe leaving China to ignore it and continue to prosper as we fell behind. This resulted in anemic growth here and in Europe for years following the great recession.
Most importantly, this entire economic debate began as an idea to stop the exodus of American business to foreign lands and instead return them through incentives. So what happened? The Republicans passed tax legislation that continued to incentivise that business exodus by setting a lower foreign profits tax rate than the national corporate tax rate here at home.
I have read several comments that stated, "to live like a Republican, you must vote for Democrats". I believe it now for sure knowing economic history generally and this recent world disturbance by Trump and his administration.
20
On the theory that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, I fully support anything the Trump administration does that hurts or will hurt Americans who support it -- because the sooner its supporters realize they've been played, the better for all of us (particularly, I might add, many who still support this administration).
25
Sure, but how many of us non-Trump-supporters need to suffer, too? My business depends on trade with Europe. I'm just crossing my fingers and hoping Don the Con doesn't discover the service sector...
2
It looks to me that a mini recession is just around the corner. Hang on to you hats.
18
Maybe not so mini! Remember the effects of Smoot-Hayley? If not, look it up!
1
I’m convinced Trump has no idea how our global economy works. Pretty sure his bodyguard at Wharton did his homework.
45
Somewhere it has been revealed that trump's grand scheme is to pull back all the factories to the USA and the system will function in a closed manner with Amurcans trading other Amurcans like an ant colony in a bottle. When the jobs pay so poorly that no one wants them, when no where in the USA will a minimum wage job rent a one bedroom apartment, when health care will become unreachable to millions and when most of the money in the country is in the hands of a couple of hundred families, who pray tell will be able to purchase all these goods and services.
32
Credit cards will continue to be distributed to those who cannot pay their bills. Vehicles will continue to be sold to people who do not qualify for credit.
13
Credit cards have credit limits and cars can be repossessed. What is your point?
Wait - Europe's economy is weakening while oil prices surge? Who benefits from a weaker Europe and higher prices for fossil fuels? Russia, that's who.
60
It seems like Trump will do anything in order to sign his colossal Sharpie signature on a "proclamation" to wave around at the cameras. The members of Congress and Governors of states that are being slammed by these tariffs don't seem to be willing to speak out against this. Do the voters in these states really care?
21
"Just the Fear of a Trade War Is Straining the Global Economy"
How about this is exactly what Trump wants. He does not want to admit this for political reasons.
10
Everything Trump does is ultimately helping Putin and Russia, we are being played by them and our POTUS is owned by the Russians. A strong global economy with Russia no where near the top doesn’t help Putin’s grip on Russia. This trade war is pure economic warfare by the Russians.
66
How much revenue to these tariffs produce and how will the government use that money? Haven’t seen that in any stories.
15
Anything to keep the spotlight off his treason.
Putin's puppet is at it again
71
Fear is the operative word.
First, our country and now the rest of the world is going into fight/flight mode, all because of the insatiable ego of this madman.
He has no interest in solving any problems at all.
He only has an interest in disrupting any stability in the world.
49
If that is Trumps only interest, and it certainly feels that way, then this is a very perverse individual.
Funny how so many of these "Trump Supporters" in the comments section who say they actually support a worldwide economic collapse (because if it hurts China, it's good for us, amirite?) seem to be living in Thailand. Why don't y'all come on back to America now that it's great again? That's what I thought.
44
I would bet that consumer price increases in the US just on steel and aluminum tarrifs (plus other items added) will exceed tax bill savings within 6 weeks for the majority of the population.
That $1.50 a week paycheck increase for School Secretary in Pennsylvania Majority Leader Ryan bragged about in February won't seem so great when prices and inflation take a sudden jump.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/03/us/politics/paul-ryan-tweet.html
22
I am upset that suddenly we as a country have such a wildly different personality based on one president. If our president's powers are so unchecked by law and were so hinged to simple tradition- then we need to write new laws to keep a tyrant in check so we don't have another Trump. Anyone at this point in D.C. that is not outraged with the cyber attack of Russia with Trump's blessing will be voted out.
78
To be replaced exactly by whom. There must be viable candidates in order to have quality legislators. Many voters in Maine wrongly believed that Ranked Choice Voting will magically supply such individuals.
To be replaced by a Democrat, any Democrat!
"Americans appear to be better insulated than most from the consequences of trade hostilities. As a large economy in relatively strong shape, the United States can find domestic buyers for its goods and services when export opportunities shrink."
Thank you, NYT, for this passage. I do not understand economics or foreign trade, but I do know that the stock market has more than recovered from the OMG of Jan.-Feb., which now appears to have been a blip. The market barely shrugged when China tariffs were announced last week, and anyone who invested in an index fund the day before Trump was elected has enjoyed a much healthier return than during the last two years of the Obama administration.
The point is, heaven forbid, Trump might actually have gotten something right here. We are, apparently, the largest economic force on the planet, and we can, from appearances, throw our weight around without the sky falling--that, so far, is the takeaway.
The sad part is, Bernie Sanders would be in the White House and likely doing at least this good if he'd been the Democratic nominee. Instead, we were offered Hillary "Retread" Clinton when the electorate had amply demonstrated it did not want an Establishment candidate.
The scary part is, the R's now are in a great position to hold the House and Senate--they might even gain seats. The sad truth is, people who vote in sufficient numbers to get candidates elected care more about their pocketbooks than they do anything else. So Trump wins.
5
More negativity from a Sanders supporter. Yes, it's true. Mrs. Clinton was a bad choice. That doesn't mean Mr. sanders would have been a good choice. Please, spare me the polls--the republican attack machine never targeted him.
Fact is we'll never know what would have happened. What we do know is we have to vote the blinkety-blank Republicans out. Your negativity ain't helping. Nor does re-fighting 2018's nomination contest.
The global economy seems fine but maybe you know more than the rest of us.
1
If you had read the article perhaps you'd know what early signs of trouble they pointed to.
when ignorance meets madness...
but the price to pay will never be his
23
Fair trade is NOT free trade. As a leader, you must not bring in anything that’ll kill your own people’s livelihoods. Do like in barter trades. You bring what you have to the market, and trade for what you don’t. What Trump is doing has been long in coming and is needed to put trading in the correct perspective and teach all those “experts” a thing or two about economics. Tariffs application does not mean trade war, but it is an essential component for fair trade. All countries should apply tariffs on items that will undercut domestic production. Then the trading arena will level itself and domestic industries will continue to thrive. Without tariffs, ALL countries with high per-capita incomes will lose out and the only result of long term tariffs-free trading is one where the per-capita incomes of all countries become equal.
1
The problem becomes when those imports become needed inputs for domestic production. Then domestic producers are being undercut
1
There is so much disruption going on in so many areas. Now it is trade and our relationships with our trading partners, suppliers, and customers.
There is, also, much cruelty. And hardships ahead if all the changes don't work out for the good.
It is now time for those whose duty it is to protect the United States, its people and economy, to look at the small and large pictures to see who will benefit from all this breaking down of things that have worked effectively.
America has always paid for things in the international world. America has helped to rebuild and strengthen economies throughout the world. Many times, there is value and value received from what America spends, even when it looks like America might be being taken. America's largess has added to and sustained America's power and position in the world. Trade wars could weaken the United States economy.
What really is going on here? Is America just trying to be an isolated competitor? Or is there a larger picture?
11
There is a general consensus, at least among the readers, that the "Republican" party has been hijacked by alt-right kleptocrats. In reality, they have become the vassals of their admired king... Therefore, I think we should all, from now on, refer to the republican party as the Monarchist party and forget everything about S. Adams, Henry, J. Adams, Franklin, Jefferson, Paine, Washington, Madison, Hamilton...
Alas, the Americans have chosen a vulgar bully and as John Adams wrote in 1776 " Public Virtue cannot exist without private, and public Virtue is the only Foundation of Republics"
By a strange twist of history, we, the Canadian "loyalists" are the true heirs of your Dream.
For what it is worth, as many other Canadians, I will not return to the US and buy american as long as the Americans won't heed the words of Adams and draw the rightful consequences. Good luck!
45
Americans are not under the spell. The popular vote went to the woman. Americas are trapped by this situation hoisted on us by Russia. Your disappointment is blaming a victim of a cyber attack but continue to pat yourself on the back I guess Canada... so nice? I would like to hear a bit more- I know this does not represent our friends the Americans... etc. Try that on for size.
4
The guy was the bankruptcy KING in NYC-how can ANYONE think he's competent to have ANY SAY in trade, finances etc.?
90
To wreak havoc all over the world, this is Trump's main and central program. If he could he would even bomb people.
When do Americans wake up and realize what is happening in Washington DC?
53
Americans lost the plot a long time ago. Fighting in the Middle East since 2003 and they still fixate on what the Kardashians are up to. That's the Americans mindset now. Dumbed down and tuned out.
1
Yet another example of careless egomania and narcissism ‘Trumping’ thoughtful, technically competent, consensus based policy. Once again, we are being forced into the inevitably painful consequences and retribution of Trump’s superficial, myopic and dangerously warped view of international realities.
Where are the Republican patriots of loyal opposition? Oh right, Republican opposition to Trump has become oxymoronic. The Dems better step up with a new vision for the future that includes some of Trump’s confused and disaffected base, or somebody else should. Otherwise, our nation and world will continue to be ever more victimized by this random insanity.
20
Wouldn't Trump just love pre-war Germany conditions?
27
There remains some weeks time for Trump to come to his senses, such that he has. If he does not then the next best hope may be that tariffs put on U.S. exports by Europe, China, Mexico and Canada will quickly have a damaging effect on targeted exporters in Trump states. The fact that China has made their access to patents a Western cost of doing business in China is something that should have been challenged more than a decade ago, during the Bush years.
6
This too shall pass. Trump will do something even more outrageous and the Democrats will hop on that for all of one figurative minute and then forget about the trade war. Has any Democrat bothered to mention that Trump has held his tax returns "hostage" for more than 500 days lately? Has any Democrat opened his or her mouth lately about Trump's phony promise to focus on infrastructure? The list goes on and on- Trump acts like an idiot and/or a dictator; the Democrats fulminate but do not build any strategy to counter his chaos. The Democratic Party apparatchiks do not have a clue on how to deal with this guy. The same group of losers who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory- Clinton, Schumer, and Pelosi- continue to run the party and they will drive it into the ground before they give up the ghost. Time for a new party, but it is probably too late to save the Republic.
11
Memory of all negative issues is not required. Every voter who wants to oust congressional Republicans, and eventually Trump, needs to remember just one infuriating experience--and we all have at least one. Fury and turnout will be enough to get the ball going in the other direction. We don't need to be organized, we don't need a platform and, at this point, we don't need a great candidate--all we need is fury.
15
I haven’t bought any bacon for years. Just ten years ago I could get a pound of bacon for a buck. Let the other countries tariff our pork. I will get to buy bacon again.
3
I sell yachts for a living, which I have done since 1993. Frequently our industry is regarded as the economic 'canary in the coal mine'. I'm humbled to say that I am currently having my worst year of boat sales since 2008, which was the then the depths of the financial crisis. I have talked to several other fellow brokers, and while I thought maybe I had lost the black art of selling - I am comforted (??!) to find out that it isn't just me.
Additionally, our business has an opportunity to pick up another European boat brand, which would entail buying a stock boat. Because we have no idea if that boat, when it arrives in 6 months, would have an additional tariff, we have no choice but to hold off ordering.
Similarly, boat industry publications this week are reporting that European boat importers are cancelling American orders, due to the same tariff fear from their end.
I well remember in 1989/90 the luxury tax of 10 percent literally killed the recreational boat industry overnight. The domestic US sailboat manufacturing sector never recovered from that.
28
I’m sorry to hear that your livelihood is already affected. The depression of 2008-2011 was devastating for me too. I’m glad you’re telling your story & I hope it inspires others to do so. Please tell everyone you can, especially Trump supporting friends & family & swing voters. I will do the same. Hope we can all get out of this & prosper.
15
If you find you have to rely on cheaper imports to stay in business, does that not sound a warning bell about your country’s economic landscape? Are you comfortable about the legacy you’re leaving behind?
The boat brands I sell are all as expensive as competing domestic brands. We are not undercutting American manufacturing by adding these brands -we are offering the American consumer a wider choice, just as American boat brands do in Europe.
Trumps tariffs, and retaliatory tariffs or even the threat of them, will just make the overall marketplace smaller for everybody.
Sadly, it already is happening.
9
It's quite simple. In a world with no tariffs or false "quality standards," the U.S. would dominate the world economy. The EU, which likes to describe itself as the world's largest free trade zone, is no such thing but rather a protectionist union that keeps out huge amounts of US goods. China and Japan operate similarly.
The US accepted these unfair trade practices when Europe, China and Japan were poor, but these unfair practices often give Europeans and Japanese a higher standard of living than Americans. That's fine if they earn it through fair trade practices, but the US should no longer subsidize living standards overseas.
7
You are correct. It is a different world today.
This trade war with China is another "gift" of President Pathological and his gang. He's playing with toys that operate far outside and beyond his competence and understanding. Big trouble ahead. It's all on Trump, abetted by his Republican Congress.
22
Jim, speaking of being far outside your competence and understanding, how much have you studied the Chinese trade barriers, IP protections, and ownership restrictions in China that demand transfer of intellectual property/know-how/technology to Chinese partners?
They aren't playing fair, and it's time we stood up to them. Big trouble ahead, if we don't wake up.
5
I have to snort in derision when I hear someone defend 45’s international policy decisions based on fairness. If there’s anything Trump ain’t, it’s fair
16
If you treat anything that rocks your boat as an act of war, you’ll never fix any real problems. US applies tariffs on products that they also make locally. You should do likewise. On products that are not domestically produced, keep off tariffs. Accept that this will make trades fairer, and everybody wins, not just countries with lower per-capita incomes. You put up a heavyweight against another heavyweight in a ring, you’ll get a fair fight. Tariffs should be used this way. Of course it is easier to label it trade wars if your position of unfair advantage is being called out.
I just wonder how long it will take the establishment to realize that Trump is a liability rather than a benefit. I also wonder if the same establishment has taken notice of how Putin's Russia is dealing with its business concerns - get too successful and get taken over.
3
I'm shocked that Trump and his supporters here are incapable of simple arithmetic. If the US want to sell 60% of their national debt and 40% of their equities to foreigners, and, at the same time, consume with borrowed money, they MUST run trade deficits.
current account = exports – imports (+net international investment balance)
The alternative is for the US government to spend less, and for American consumers to save more. This would do enormous damage in an economy which is c. 70% consumer spending (as opposed c. 50% in China and Germany).
In short, America's trade deficits fund the American Way of Life, which depends on foreigners investing their trade surpluses in the US. If Trump wants to change that, fine. But I'm not sure he or his supporters understand what's at stake here.
21
Outis, I'm shocked that non-business people think that a massive trade deficit due to Chinese trade barriers is good thing. It's kinda laughable, actually.
5
And I'm not at all shocked that businessmen like Donald Trump - and yourself (?) - are completely ignorant of macro-economics. It's shockingly common.
Your ilk clearly wants American consumers to pay more, and retailers and service providers (which make up 70% of the US economy) to make less. On which planet is that a good thing, esp. in a country as rich as the US, which, currently, is at full employment?
In a nutshell, you and your president are destroying hundreds of thousands of jobs, and driving thousands of farms into to bankruptcy for a few thousands jobs in the key industries of the 19th century? MAGA indeed.
2
It’s time for maths of greater complexity. There will always be stakes involved, and the longer a problem is left to fester, the stakes needed to fix it gets higher. The trick is to see the problem, see the stakes involved, and see the needed outcome. Then act. Everything being done carries a stake. If you’re afraid of putting it up, you really shouldn’t be doing anything and you should leave all to the wise and courageous one.
The report seems to become full of inaccuracies. The Chinese have not swiftly imposed any tariffs yet. The Europeans have not imposed any tariffs yet. And in most likelihood they won't be imposing any tariffs in the near future. That is the reality of the world we live in.
3
The Chinese have retaliated with tariffs already, at least $34b worth and maybe more.
A shrinking tide lowers all boats...For Trump and those who think like him, everything is zero sum, always winner/loser. The real world isn’t like that. Humanity has always done better with cooperation, balance, adjustment, give and take.
18
Yea, and ultimately every country has the same per-capita income, give and take.
Perhaps I don't understand all of the facts, but how can we "win" any trade confrontation with China when China could throw financial markets into turmoil by simply saying "we won't buy any more US Treasury securities."?
12
One side effect of this so-called free trade is the clout that China now has. See?
1
I don't understand. Higher tariffs on US goods in other countries implies, the goods are costlier outside the country thereby earning more money for US companies, that means the employees in USA should get higher incomes so that they can pay for the higher costs of imported goods in the USA. If you say, people will begin to buy local goods than the imported ones, then every local company will get bumper sales and their employees should be well-off too. So if every country imposes tariffs on each other, it should be status quo.
1
Yes, if everybody wise up and act maturely that would be the outcome. Act with self-protection (not a bad word), not simply retaliation.
a vast action by the trump admin to short sell all the stock in existence.
4
Well I suppose with how good he was at bankruptcies in the private sector, it was only a matter of time til he crashed the global economy. With 08’ already chalked up, perhaps it can be the Republican Party’s new ‘thing’?
24
Although I am open to re-adjusting trade agreements, particularly with China, Trump so far has not made any economic argument that would include some in-depth analyses to back it up. Just a bunch of platitudes and threats laced with usual trumpian lies and exaggerations. The most aggregious is the case of Canada with whom we actually have trade surplus. Where is the actual merit-based argument?
The Trumps’s method of negotiations seems to be quite primitive, increase the pressure hoping that the other side would fold. The problem is that they will not do that. Europe because they think it is not justified and China because it would be showing the government’s weakness. Not gonna happen.....
Wrecking international agreements may be easy, replacing them with new ones seem to be way beyond Trump’s capability.
13
The US has a 375 billion annual trade deficit with China. Trump IS right that this cannot go on for ever. What SHOULD be done about this?
I don't know.
But "do nothing" does not strike me as the right answer.
9
Do you know what a trade deficit is?
5
You need to take some economic classes.
4
From thebalance.com: If the United States implemented trade protectionism, U.S. consumers would have to pay high prices for their "Made in America" goods. It’s unlikely that the trade deficit will change. Most people would rather pay as little as possible for computers, electronics, and clothing, even if it means other Americans lose their jobs.
1
Donnie ran his businesses into the ground SIX different times.
The Bankruptcy Boy now wants to do for the world's economy, what he's done for his own failed economy.
40
Many businesses failed in the last twenty years, all without Trump’s help. Many left the US. Does this not tell you something of the state of things as they stand? Trump is still rich because he knows what works and what doesn’t. What doesn’t you close. You seem to quarrel with that. If he succeeds for the US the same way he does as an individual, you’ll be in good hands. Sure, he’ll bankrupt some (those that can only survive with cheap imports), but he’ll build others (those that don’t).
1
Oh, please, Robert. Trump was born into wealth. He’s also cheated his way into wealth by tying up the courts to protect his sleazy ways. He’s not a businessman. He’s a wealthy spoiled brat who happens to have been born with enough money to toss it around as he pleases.
Meanwhile, “in good hands”? Good grief; do you know who you’re defending here? He praises tin pot dictators who have murdered their own people and has expressed sympathy for anti-Semites. He promised better health care from day one; where is it? He said he wouldn’t do away with protections for pre-existing conditions; they will be gone soon if the Democrats don’t control Congress. He is using children as pawns for an immigration policy that matters nothing to him other than that it is another pot he can stir to plump his own narcissim. Multitudes of his associates are either under indictment or are cooperating with investigators.
“In good hands.”
Hilarious.
Where is Obama when we need him?
33
Polishing his Brand.
2
Putin and Rupert Murdock share in this global destabilization effort.
12
I really don't think Trump understands the economics of trade. But what he does understand is the disruption of trade and that is what he does. Just like the disruption of our democracy with lies, attacks on the press (fake news) and attacks on our system of justice. How the republicans in the house and senate can put up with this war on the constitution is beyond comprehension. To put it bluntly, they are all treasonous.
46
I haven’t read any more comments, but I can tell you that this Canadian is not afraid of a trade war with the US. I love my US friends and relations, but this is a fight that I won’t back down on. I can accept hardship, and I’m not afraid.
45
Well, this American isn't afraid of a trade war with Canada, China or Europe combined! Yet, I love them too. Also, I won't back down either!
Does this sort of talk help anyone?
5
Of course not. I just wanted to be stand up and be counted. What I think is not the least bit important, but I wanted to let the US know that it can’t bully everyone.
Me too! And everyone I know! Everyone checking labels in the Supermarket today!
11
Trump doesn't understand economics, international trade and treaties or any thing complicated. His way is intimidation, flouting the law and suing or declaring bankruptcy when he's wrong, which happened quite often in his personal and business lives.
Now that he's POTUS, he demonizes his predecessors, America's friends and allies, ALL previous trade deals entered into by America and wants to wreck it all.
Sounds crazy because it really is. but his base is buying it and the GOP is allowing him to get away with it, and there rests the danger. I just read that since he declared Canada a National security danger last week, Canada's favorable rating in America plummeted from over 90% to under 70%.
Let that sink in. We have become a menace because Trump said so, never mind history and the plain facts of the matter.
I can't vote in your elections, but their outcome affect the whole planet. So, those of you American friends who can and don't should vote because only you can restore sanity in international relations the world over...and inside your own country (voting rights and campaign finance, health care, education, whealth and income gap, Immigration, environment, race relations, separation of church and state etc...
34
On the other hand, putting the brakes on the global economy is the first thing Trump and the GOP have done to combat climate change.
12
Good point!
You are dreamin if you think this trade war is a good thing.
I've been to China and it is a sad pace! They still revere rhino horn and tiger bones as medicinal filters- you guys are living in the dark ages.
4
The most significant thing about Trump's actions concerning trade and numerous other subjects is that they demonstrate how we have allowed our system of government, wisely established on a balance of powers among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, as well as between states and the Federal government, to evolve into a strongly Presidential-dominant arrangement.
As with most forms of government, power in a one-person executive (President, monarch, dictator, Central Committee First Secretary, etc.) tends to increase when the occupant of that position is popular, essentially doing what the people desire. What that produces is the legitimization (through law, Constitutional change, public expectation, and acceptance) of power in the office itself and the bureaucracies which answer to it. When a corrupt, incompetent, or evil person comes to occupy that office, he or she then has a mantle of legitimacy with which to do serious damage.
Traditional liberals looked to the central government as a source of potential and actual good. Thus they have been willing and eager to invest power in that government and, especially, the President in order to accomplish certain goals, especially regarding the environment, health, civil liberties, and social policy. Meanwhile, with the exception of security issues, traditional conservatives have been much more cautious about Federal power. As it is, current liberals and conservatives bear scant resemblance to their predecessors.
5
America’s demand to be constantly entertained led to the election of a reality tv host. He has no ability or desire to think things through, or to learn or be taught. He is completely inexperienced, but learning quickly that NO actions by him, no matter how foul, result in consequences. We, along with the rest of the world, will pay for that ugly entertainment for a long while.
43
Pundits and commenters accusing China of intellectual theft seem to forget with mass amnesia that US companies were not forced *at gunpoint* to share their technologies. If US companies wish to do so to exploit their market, why shouldn't China take advantage of that to look after itself? Which other country do not look after itself? Oh yes, a country where either a fool,a kleptocrat or a dictator is in charge. You have no idea screaming "cheating" or "theft" simply makes you look like a loser.
12
I guess WTO rules don’t apply to China. They only come into picture when convenient.
7
Hurrah for Trump's misinformed 'gut'. Another impulsive decision with horrid consequences. Now he is going to damage the global economy for no apparent reason or clear results that actually create a rising economic tide because he thinks zero sum game trade wars are easy to 'win'. The man clearly has little understanding of how companies other than real estate companies work with global supply chains and sales channels. When will this despicable, destructive behaviour end, and when will the endless enabling by the Republican party end. Have they all been brainwashed? It is incredible.
23
Sorry America, if you can’t keep your President under control, I’m done with you. Not buying anything American made when I have a choice, and won’t be spending my holidays south of the border... at least until you come back to your senses.
51
BW: I don't blame you. I wish we could move to Canada, but we are too old to make such a big move. I love Justin!
31
We ALL love Justin, a wise man and a real leader.
Yet China continues to manipulate its currency to keep the plates in the air.
Eventually the music has to stop!
2
Yeah, right. Read "The Myths of China's Currency Manipulation" in today's WSJ.
5
oh, please. read up on trade deficits and global currencies. your music needs to stop, as you aren't playing a tune in tune.
5
I didn't notice clothing on the list of tariffs. Think Trump attire, including made in China "Make America Great Again" hats and his daughter's (mostly ripped off from other designers) clothing lines. Probably just a coincidence.
33
He will back off on tariffs. He'll claim success as he always does, after all he's "never made a mistake DJT." He'll also claim his tough talk, just as he did with North Korea, is what turned things around.
2
Nothing has turned around in N. Korea. NK has wanted to meet with a US president for decades, but they all refused because of nuclear threats and human rights abuses. The only "winner" in the Kim-Trump meeting was Kim, who wants to be seen as a global leader.
29
I'd like to see this individual Trump to attempt a few rounds with Trudeau, an accomplished boxer. We'd find out soon enough who's "weak".
On another note, should this Trump attempt the folly of imposing tariffs on automobiles, Canada will no doubt take the asymmetrical action of moving to expropriate the patents of U.S. Big Pharma in response.
Then see how this Trump and his obsequious sycophants like dealing with the wrath of the Big Pharma lobby inside the Beltway.
18
Please do so (expropriate Big Pharma Patents). It is immoral to benefit from the suffering of people. We don't need to pay immoral Big Pharma CEOs and their stakeholders - let's nationalize Big Pharma. Real scientists who are developing new medicines are interested in science and serving the common good for a reasonable salary, and would be happy to do it on responsibly administered tax payers money, instead of stuffing the pockets of the 1%.
8
Anna's right, and there is absolutely nothing to lose at this point. Trump will hate you for a week but then some other shiny object will grab his attention.
Anna. you are correct the 1% aren't really needed. reports indicate there has great success doing just that in Venezuela.
3
Now that the economy is doing well again, it's about time another Republican President harpooned the economy...
34
Amen
5
So true. No US economic recovery has ever survived a Republican administration.
12
Where are 45’s investments right now? How much leverage does he have when things are crashing? It will be like a big smorgasbord for him and his cronies. With the right advice, Pruitt may actually amass the wealth he lists after. Follow the money
7
Trump is not an anarchist. He's an insurgent, as are his financial backers and political enablers. Trump's the shill, playing his part to keep the country (and world) topsy turvy. The end game is driven by greed: high speed transfer of wealth to those who already have billions and surgical deconstruction of any semblance of government that might stand in the way. All the while the madding crowd is distracted (and his base enthralled). It's a lovely plan and now in full bloom. If you don't believe there will be an Antichrist you might reconsider
24
Bannon is a destroyer, not a creator, and Trump is his acolyte. Watch Bannon's interview with Zakaria, and shiver.
Trump is a natural disciple of Bannon's philosophy of destruction of the administrative state. He believes the world will be remade into a utopia through chaos and overturning the world order.
But the politics of hate and destruction never produce utopia. It may produce war, whether through trade and its resultant poverty, or worse. Trump will not be an exception to that law of nature.
We are caught in the mesmerizing headlights of the black forces of our beings, reflected in Trump.
We are doomed, and resistance is futile, I wish not to inform you.
15
What we're really talking about here isn't tariffs. We're talking about an impending chaos. First this chaos was confined to Donald Trump's little world. Then it spread into the media. Then it spread into the White House. And now it's infecting just about everything, including Biblical passages (thanks Jeff Sessions). Only a fool would believe that the effect won't be enormously negative to our economy over time, not to mention the remaining world economy. Republicans are giddy because they think they're destroying liberalism when in reality, they're allowing Trump to destroy the soul of America, if not the world. Hyperbole? Guess again.
27
The trade war on its own is bad enough. But when you bad mouth world leaders, especially Justin Trudeau, that's going too far. This "war" is hurting everyone, especially those of us retired and on a set income. My 401 has really been hit in a bad way, over the last several months, and I don't see it going up. Mr. Trump's family continues to make millions on our backs. How is it that Ivanka and Jared are allowed to continue making money while working in the WH? And I'm quite sure Trump himself is still making lots of money. I'm very afraid for those that are barely scraping by. I voted for Hillary, and I will doe all I can (in my community, and on line) to support Democrats this Fall. What's happened to America? I shutter to think what the next several months will bring.
18
Trump is letting the house burn down to the ground in order to save the swimming pool. This trade war is the one issue that can definitely hurt the GOP attempt to hold onto power during the upcoming mid term elections. When your most ardent loyalists are hit in the pocket book to losing jobs. The GOP may use this issue to turn on Trump especially if their reelection efforts are being squashed. Trump is only good for Trump. Be careful for what you wish for.
12
You don't mean th swimming pool; you mean the cesspool.
9
For those that believe the US can win a trade war consider this. The last card usually to be played in a trade war is other countries disregarding US patents. If that happens US profits and jobs will get crushed. Think Drug companies. Canada has indicated it will play this card as its last move in an all out trade war. I can see other countries following and just ripping off US patents to make the same products for a fraction of the cost.
22
Tariffs is one thing, disregarding patents is a whole another ball game.
1
Yes it will be another level in a trade war. US drug companies are the biggest lobbyists and likely won’t stand for it. Happened already with Brazil and the US backed down. Countries currently respect US patents due to agreements like NAFTA. With Trump pulling out of agreements there will be no legal basis to enforce patents outside of the US.
1
Words are not adequate for how stupid I think Trump is for starting an uncessary global trade war which will really hurt all involved in the end. Nonetheless, he is beyond stupid. I'm a Canadian (now a US enemy thanks to Trump) living and thriving in China (another US enemy) and I live quite close to the murderous Kim in North Korea (now Trump's friend who still threatens the world with unregulated nukes). In just my relatively small Chinese city of 1.8 million there are numerous Starbucks, KFC's, McDonald's and Burger Kings. Buicks and Chevies and Caddilacs are numerous on city streets and American movies sell out the local cinemas. There is a lot of admiration for the US and the school I work at sends all of it's students to North American (increasingly Canadian, gee, I wonder why) universities where they pay top dollar for their western education. They are hurt and ask me why is the US punishing them just as they are getting rich and can afford to buy more US goods. Good question I reply and then I suggest they buy Canadian, and European because we also wonder why. Stupid Trump, he is going to ruin the US and its economy - just a matter of time. Meanwhile, prepare for a boycott of US goods around the world, in Europe, Canada and elsewhere. Oh, and don't ask for our cooperation on other issues either - after all, you imposed tariffs on us by justifying national security - which means you don't trust us. Truth is, 95% of us don't trust the US.
62
Much worse that tit-for-tat tariffs is the potentially devastating unilateral imposition of total export restrictions. China knows exactly what we need, and in many instances it is the only source. They could bankrupt America by withholding critical parts.
14
@paulie: ..as the largest purchaser of our debt (bonds) they have everywhere as well.
Trump doing what he does best, destroying things. Instead of a business this time it's the world economy.
26
Um, may I point out the obvious? I use a car which I was considering replacing soon (imported steel and aluminum) to drive to work in a plant that makes Gift and loyalty cards (imported PVC). Our firm was looking to replace a printing press (from the EU). I am typing this on a device that was manufactured in China using parts from all over the world. If anyone thinks the actions of this administration are not going to adversely affect me, my family and millions of Americans like us, they are ignorant at best and delusional at worst.
43
Judith, I am quite confident that entrepreneurs and American ingenuity will adjust as needed. The effect will be more Americans building this critical parts and less dependency on China with their dictatorship and horrific treatment of workers. Your dependency argument is actually the very reason that we need to have these products built within the US in case China ever decides to get more aggressive than they already have in recent past in place like the South Pacific.
2
Trump knows. And he doesn't care about you.
15
Dan—those jobs left our shores for a reason: management didn’t want to pay acceptable wages, so they shipped off to places where wages don’t significantly cut into profits. So, maybe these jobs will come back, but will they support a family? Will there be benefits? Any job security? What kind of workweek? Will employees be obligated to work longer hours for the same or less pay? Will there be company stores? Howya gonna feel when you can afford only 2/3 of what you could before all these great job opportunities opened up. Workers’ rights, wages, and safety are not eroding, they are being hacked away. Years of progress to build this amazing living situation and our government says we don’t deserve it.
6
With the economy so great and unemployment low, what is this supposed to accomplish?
9
Reelection of the puppet.
5
Economies don't ramp-up overnight. Trump is simply reaping the results of Obama's sane economic policies. Remember, Bush Jr. with the disastrous Iraq/Afghanistan wars, and the sub-prime mortgage scandal, had the global economy plummeting to a depression worse than that of the 30s. That was the festering can of worms Obama received from Bush Jr. MRGA!
This is a fruitless debate. Tariffs have been imposed throughout history without much impact and were then reversed when the need of individual economies and industries politically required it. Call it a correction in thinking. Let's move on to more important subjects.
Even if that's true (though there Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 20s were hardly harmless to the economy) the problem is still that these tariffs are highly disruptive to an increasingly globalized economy. Economic uncertainty is never a good thing.
6
The Great Depression was such an event as was the Bush Grand Recession of 2008. This next one will be a doozy. Looking for a 2000 one day Dow drop.
9
According to many conservatives the Morill tariff started the American Civil War and we're obviously still feeling the effects, as they would be the first to point out.
2
Our big opportunity is for the US government to use all those recycled trade dollars to invest in or support the development of strategic next-gen industries, whatever they may be. Trump doesn't understand how sweet it is for us to buy foreign stuff cheap and then sell Treasuries dear, so that other companies pay for our redevelopment. Instead, he wants to turn back the clock to the bad old days, when steelworkers here in Bethlehem would tell their sons to wrestle hard in high school so they could win a scholarship to Lehigh and never have to spend a day in a hot dangerous mill like their old man. Regarding Trump, I say "he wants" loosely, because there is no plan. The world is simple when your only interest is yourself; when you have to acknowledge the 100s or 1,000s of different legitimate interests at play, here and abroad, nothing is simple or easy.
18
Brilliant comment. Thank you
2
Encourage the sane nations to cooperate with each other. It will be brutal here, but maybe the electorate here will figure it out and vote out the cancer we have for a government.
18
Why is it that many successful people in America choose to buy German cars? How is this going to help American car industry?
5
Many “German” cars are built in the USA.
8
Making well-designed, well-built American cars would likely benefit American car makers more. Why should people buy junk heaps to benefit the makers of junk heaps just because they are american junk heaps?
2
American auto-makers build their vehicles to be replaced every five to seven years with heavy maintenance in the interim. German, Japanese, even Korean companies understand most buyers want/need endurance and reliability. In America, it’s sex appeal, attracting those who can either afford it or those who optimistically believe they can easily afford all of it.
3
Sadly predictable turn of events and what we all get for installing an incompetent president. Hopefully his supporters will suffer most in the downturn to come. At least he hasn't started a nuclear war with North Korea, yet.
7
Congress never should have acceded trade authority to one person. Trump has some legit goals, but he's going about it in a ham handed manner.
8
It is one thing for a narcissistic businessman like Donald Trump to lose a gamble in Atlantic City after building a casino, or to lose the gamble of purchasing the Plaza Hotel which didn't turn out so well either....
But it is entirely another thing for the same man who is now the current occupant of the oval office to gamble on the global economy, and on the economic infrastructure of the United States. If he loses this gamble he will be run out of Washington fairly quickly, but he will have done nearly irreparable damage.
This is worth thinking about as we watch Donald Trump carelessly and thoughtlessly work his way through his current term in office.... and many of the people who voted for him , hoping for a better life are going to be in for a rude awakening, if he continues to insist upon a trade war.
28
He knows what he is doing and it's not serving the people. Unless you regard the people as a meal. Then, yes, he is serving the people.
7
That's funny Dan.
Read up?
You might try that.
6
So may I have "anti-Trump emotions" about the tariffs leveled on Canada?
To put this spreading chaos in context, I recommend looking at The New York Review of Books and their review titled "It Can Happen Here".
15
From these headlines, you get the feeling that the media esp the Times and Wash Post have this need to convince Trump supporters how bad things will be with Trump.
The more they try and convince them the more hardened they become. Let them figure it out on their own.
12
You can be as skeptical as your heart desires.
Or, are you confusing skepticism with burying your head in the sand?
But, don't let me interfere with your myopia. If there are consequences from Trump's trade war (and there already having an effect; just ask pig farmers and soybean growers how they're doing?), we'll see how well your skepticism is working.
3
Reporting what is happening does not infer an attempt to convince.
3
Trump has told his voters that these tariffs are necessary, and they're apparently fine with it, though I'm not sure they've studied the details. Trump figured that China, and Canada as well, would blink, but they didn't, hence the trade war. The U.S. has lost its edge as the world leader, and irresponsible decisions like this have big consequences, as we're seeing. This is like a man with no flying experience at the controls of a jet that is starting to turn its nose to the ground. He doesn't know what to do, except to start flailing away and hitting every button he can as the jet speeds toward a crash landing. We're the passengers on board.
23
Please,
Our economy has been under an unfair advantage for decades, so the thinking is one day the President woke up and said....I think I’ll disrupt things for the newspaper headlines?
This adjustment will wake up the Chinese and all the other nations that now that our economies are shifting, its time to pay the piper...ask our fair Senator Mr. Schumer. He apparently is seeing the sense in this attitude.
Few other world leaders would have been able to pull this off....except Mr. Roosevelt possibly....(either one)
Granted Mr. Trump needs some tweaking,
I know you won’t get behind him, but I’ll bet this plays out in our ( U.S.) favor.
2
I will take that bet. "Mr Trump needs tweaking." You truly have a gift for understating the problem.
8
Trump does intentionally disrupt the news cycle. Watch some of the videos of him at his rallies. In more than one of them, he laughs about how easy it was to get his base to chant, "Drain the Swamp," after admitting he thought it was "hokey." In another, he says, "We don't need to Lock Her Up anymore," because he won the election - and he laughed saying he used it to get people riled up. Do your research.
4
Maybe we should continue to let China steal our intellectual property and hamper US business operations in China? Seriously ?
5
You are aware of how personally invested in China the Trump family is?
8
This has nothing to do with intellectual property.
1
Now who in their right mind would want to go start a global trade war? Oh, Trump. And why? Ignorance? Arrogance?
Maybe the Trumpsters will think its a bridge too far, when they start losing their jobs...
5
Possibly but I would tend to doubt that. Even when they lose their livelihood, they will easily rationalize it as something Obama caused.
5
And when American soybean farmers get foreclosed because China's buying soybeans from Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Australia. What then? MRGA!
Anyone who thinks Steve Bannon is not still profoundly influencing this White House's policy, whether he's in house or not, should take long look at what's happening in light of his nationalist philosophy.
8
It'll be interesting to see how Trump's vulnerable followers remain consistent to their political principles as they slide toward bankruptcy. Nevertheless, though they probably would have nothing but scorn for my empathy I feel particularly feel sorry for farmers whose margins are already stretched thin.
5
Now that the world population has crested the 7 billion mark, the consequences of, "a world trade war," [widespread and severe economic privation] rival in many ways the destruction caused by, "a real world war."
7
Where is Congress? Three arms. Let's use this one.
6
It's no longer a fear....it's a reality.
4
If there is any bad that comes of this trade war, it will be Obama's fault, or Hillary's fault, or someone else's fault, because Trump says so.
And while we're at it, if there is any bad that comes of anything that happens in the coming years, it will be the fault of the group that Trump says it is, because that's how dictatorships work.
Rational people will know otherwise, but they're a minority and helpless. They "vote" and pretend that means anything. Meanwhile, the supporters of Trump and his policies follow him in lockstep, off the cliff, smiling and chanting. As they fall they will be clutching small American flags manufactured in China (or nothing at all).
Almost poetic.
29
Look at the label on a MAGA cap! MRGA!
“Mr. Trump’s offensive may yet prove to be a negotiating tactic that threatens economic pain to force deals, rather than a move to a full-blown trade war. Americans appear to be better insulated than most from the consequences of trade hostilities.”
The above ridiculous hypothesis is what China is going to erase by dent of a national footprint in our face while mountainclimbing over US into the future. As the belt tightens around the One Road, and, without raising a hand, as China slaps herself into stimulated research and development over ZTE (not a business failure so much as a loss of national face, something unknown to US), the world is going to invert itself like an hour glass!
Wow, since "superiority," the social exchange of acceptable slogans and gear, and acts of self-erasure have not proven enough to be noticed, it must be tough to be “Chinese American.” Like, betting on the wrong horse at the Kentucky Derby—or having a hard time taking over Harvard. I mean, life's rough, for some of us. (Inscrutable, right?
Trump launches trade war with China and its powerhouse economy. Are we feeling great again yet?
14
It is interesting that the much touted businessman, now elected President, Mr. Trump, would enter into a trade war that America cannot win, and will not win. The world feeds us, and feed off of us. As we begin to block free trade with other nations, they will fight back. They have little choice. We are disrupting their economy, so they will try to disrupt ours. Given that Trump confronted the entire G-7 just last week, you can bet that they will work in concert to make us suffer. Get ready for pain, American workers and middle class. Let us hope that the world's nations have some compassion unlike our fearless leader.
20
The trade war that Trump preemptively launched against China will be a feather in his hair-like material. (He should consider wearing a cap.)
9
"hair like material" Lol Excellent
5
Hitler blamed Germany's economic and national status on Jews and other "imperfect" people; he banned free speech/press, and began a systematic propaganda campaign lead by Goebbels ("A lie told once remains a lie but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth"). Now, Trump creates an economic crisis and then (knowingly and intentionally) blames Obama, the Democrats, Muslims, Mexicans, Canadians, etc., and supporting him are a large number of pathetic party-first, country-second-or-last Republican US Reps and Senators, and apparently 40% of US voters, who listen to a convenient, "independent" propaganda machine, Fox News. The death of democracy can come as quickly as the fall of the USSR to become ultimately Putin's Russia, or as slowly as the Roman Empire that decayed from the inside despite having the greatest military of its time.
78
If a chimp took over the controls of an airliner there would be plenty of reasons for the passengers to be afraid. A chimp may be incompetent, but he isn't evil. The narcissistic megalomaniac in the White House is both incompetent and evil - the world has plenty of reasons to be afraid, very afraid.
82
Mr. Trump seems to think that the way to run a country is to "win" at everything. He doesn't appear to understand that trade deficits are not necessarily bad, as, for example, when they lead the trading partner to invest their excess money in America.
Meanwhile, he believes it is totally okay to disrupt the entire world so that he can "win." It is NOT okay. I pray our allies will come back to us when we get rid of him.
33
China can shift production to neighboring nations in reaction to tariffs being imposed on goods produced in China proper, that might even help to cinch the "One Belt, One Road Initiative." At the same time, the US should seek alternative nations to produce some of our nation's imports and manufactures. We have been relying too heavily on an increasingly dominant supplier.
2
I can't rule out the possibility that Trump has a subconscious political death wish. He has launched a trade war with China, and just may accomplish his Freudian wish.
6
The crash will be spectacular.
The Red Welfare States that feed off progressive Blue States taxes will hurt the worsted. As it should be.
14
I agree with the sentiment of your post; however, this will hurt liberals in red states, too, and could result in their being too busy trying to make ends meet to donate time and money to help elect Democratic candidates, or to cast a vote, even.
It is just another element of anti-American Republican crazy-making.
7
Now that’s funny. The imagination of children.
Jobs lost to trade-related disruptions are easy to understand and also bolster Trump's zero sum view of things. The enormous benefits of global trade require a level of understanding that Trump (and his base) either doesn't posses or is blissfully ignoring--probably becauseit doesn't serve his larger aim to undercut democracy, trample human rights, and buddy up to dictators whose push-button authority he envies.
16
Ok- another day dealing with the warped mind of Trump.
Every move he makes destabilizes the world- especially the USA.
OK- I get that Trump has mental disorders.
I really hold the GOP leadership to account.
They are abandoning their Constitutional duty to provide a check to DT.
Why? Because they are spineless, amoral and corrupt and they care much. much more about retaining their jobs and avoiding the wrath of a wannabe dictator who they fear.
November mid terms cannot come soon enough.
This is indeed the sorriest and most despicable chapter in American history and I blame the GOP for allowing their party to become the party of Trump.
It is no longer the GOP- it is the POC- the party of cowards. You will never be forgiven for putting personal gain above country.
30
Great reporting. Where are the Republicans? And where are the Democrats? How pathetic is Chuck Schumer championing the China Tariffs. Why wasn’t he pushing Obama to do the same if it’s so “right.
1
Doesn't seem to be hurting the US economy.
I see the Atlanta fed just predicted 4% growth in the second quarter of this year. The salient factor here is that the US is one of the nations that is least dependent on foreign trade in the world. The World Bank lists the US as 184 out of 188 nations ranked on dependence on international trade. Only Argentina, Brazil, Pakistan, and the Sudan depend less on international trade than the US.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
So the US is in a far better position to weather a global trade war than almost any other nation. And a race to the bottom will result in most other nations hitting bottom before we do. And that gives us tremendous leverage. Perhaps that's what Trump is saying, although it is doubtful he really knows what he is saying.
7
Give one more year and we see the result, including in the States...
3
“Illinois Among Hardest Hit in Trump Trade War”
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20180605/NEWS05/180609932/illinoi...
“Here's How the China-U.S. Tariff Talks May Already Be Hurting America's Job Growth”
http://fortune.com/2018/04/23/tariffs-trump-china-list-trade-war-jobs/
“Chinese Tariffs Are Already Hitting Trump Voters”
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/15/opinion/sunday/trump-china-tariffs-tr...
5
Oh, we'll hit bottom, all right. We aren't so invincible. A trade war like this only destructive, not helpful. Make rationalizations all you want, but the fact remains that prices for many products will rise, and keep rising. This helps no one.
1
Its bigger than that. I don't think you understand economics.
3
Sorry Mr President - your actions have started a chain reaction that will be hard to stop. Hope you're ready for a Titanic disaster in your White House.
7
Trump feeds on Chaos. But what he is doing to the people of America and our Allies is beyond disgust. I hope everyone comes out to Vote in November and try to provide some stability and saneness.
21
To the few Trump voters who read the NY Times;
Can you please use the reply button below and explain to me using intelligent, rational and informed language how the economic, diplomatic, social and administrative slash and burn policies of your choice for President will move America forward as we face the growing domestic and international challenges of the 21st Century.
And a follow up question. Does it concern you that the now firmly established goals of Vladimir Putin and his government to discredit and disrupt our cherished and established democratic government principles are clearly being fulfilled?
Thanks.....
23
Putin couldn't have dreamt of a better outcome for Russia if he was actually pulling the strings. Uh, oh, wait a minute . . .
8
1:More money in our pocket.
2: Putin's goals haven't changed in the last 10 years, the only that's changed is the liberal narrative.
" The 80s called and they want their foreign policy back"
Intelligent people knew Russia was a threat long before the liberals admitted it.
Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are 2 obvious examples of people who are smarter than Obama and Hillary.
Or more honest maybe?
Both?
2
Sorry, but Sarah Palin is smarter than hardly anyone.
Trump has always been a loser, the guy who made a small fortune out of a big one. He's going to do the same to the United States economy and even the 1% are going to be hurt! It's not as if he has a plan: he is a nihilist although he wouldn't know the word: a guy who breaks things just because he can.
19
Whatever you need to tell yourself
Buy Canadian! Renew your Calm Radio subscription. Send Trudeau an apology for our bad electoral judgment. Whatever it takes to disown this madness.
11
Buy Canadian!
All REAL Americans need to do their part to make sure the USA is the loser in any future trade war.
If there is economics suffering to be done, we need to make sure it's here in the USA.
Anything you can think of to save Canadian jobs at the expense of American jobs is what we need to do.
The more Americans we can hurt, the more we can blame Trump and win elections.
# im with her
Anything to keep his "base" drinking the Trump/GOP Kool-Aid. Even when prices on imports shoot skyward and U.S. soy bean farmers get it where it hurts, Trump will just keep on keeping on. America used to be such a nice place. Its leaders were for the most part decent, reasonable men. Does Anybody know what happened? MRGA!
5
trump seems to have studied the downfall of Rome in detail
9
Just a quick question - Are we "Great" yet?
4
During 2008 the United States of America pulled the world into a global recession/depression. And guess what? Its trying to do it again with high tariffs. The President??? is working to make himself a dictator. And the GOP (what a joke) just sits there and lets all this happen.
14
It should be noted some tariffs are stupider than others, and some forms of protectionism are worse than others. There are stupid tariffs and very stupid tariffs. A very stupid tariff is a tariff on steel and aluminum that increases the costs of every product made in the USA that uses those metals. This increases consumer prices and makes products produced in the USA less competitive relative to those made outside the USA using steel and aluminum priced at the world market rather than the artificially propped-up, protected US steel market.
A less stupid tariff would be a retaliatory tariff that might be put on US motorcycles (Harley-Davidson) that will not raise any costs on any EU producers or raise prices for anyone in the EU, except for buyers of motorcycles. A truly frightening piece of news is that in order to exempt South Korea from the steel tariffs, an agreement establishing quotas may be undertaken. Even worse than the new steel and aluminum tariff proposals is the possibility of quotas.
The worst form of protectionism comes in the form of quotas. Quotas are bilateral agreements, negotiated by governments which allocate shares of the market that thus restrict exports and imports. None of the higher prices on the restricted goods are remitted to governments as is the case with tariffs and border adjustment taxes. The losses to the consumers are allocated to the favored producers under a quota system. Prices are always hig..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164735
6
This trade war is absolutely brilliant if you have just received a billion dollars of funding for resorts from China. And simple to understand.
China wants this very winnable war.
China hates having to buy foodstuffs from the United States.
Farming is done on razor thin margins.
Tariffs on food stuffs will depress commodity prices from corn to pork.
Bankruptcies will result with farmers unable to repay loans and equipment dealers holding paper will fold.
China, sitting atop a pile of dollars swoops in and buys farms and manufacturers at fire sale prices for cash, and off shores all factory production. China already holds leaseholds on some of the best farmland in Africa.
China is holding chips, and can suffer many losing hands. U.S. farmers are not so fat.
The farms can be worked by North Korean slaves remitting almost all their pay to dear Leader.
Like Occams Razor, look for a simple explanation.
Later the resorts owned by foreign devils will be seized.
For financial irregularities.
The devil plays by his own rules. And has a wicked sense of humor
6
Again, we have evidence that Donald Trump has no understanding of world trade issues. He also refuses to learn. Do the Republicans really think he has a clue? You people are destroying our country and our economy.
8
What do we do if Trump keeps all of his campaign promises ??
1
Trump's businesses leveraged the Trump name as his brand & Trump's now using "branding" as a strategy to control our opinions & remake the U.S.according to the names he uses to
"brand" our country. A false narrative.
Trump paints the U.S. as a weak country "victimized" "by other world powers. Trump's entire presidential campaign was his narrative that the U.S., a 'once powerful country,' has been victimized by a world that's "robbing us blind," "humiliating us" & "laughing at us." We have for decades been the strongest, richest, most powerful country in the world yet Trump's narrative was a weak victimized U.S.. Laughable except to people tired of "political correctness" who saw blue collar jobs replaced by corporate outsourcing & globalization.
Trump gained traction over political opponents like Obama & Hillary Clinton by demonizing them, branding them as "criminals" who should be jailed. Trump continues this branding assault on James Comey & claiming our intelligence are corrupt. Trump's now trying to 'brand' Robert Mueller, a war hero with dozens of military commendations including the Bronze Star & Purple Heart, as a deeply corrupt traitor trying to overturn the 2016 election.
Anyone buying Trump's narrative about the U.S. economy, until now the world's economic powerhouse, as a weak humiliated victim which only Trump can save with bizarre trade policies isn't paying attention to how Trump's remaking the world with his endless stream of false narratives.
9
Who knew international trade could be so complicated. Certainly not Trump and his intellectually barren staff of economic advisors.
No doubt Trump also got economic advice from Putin at the same time Vlad told him to give up military exercises with South Korea.
Those two clearly have the best interests of the US at heart... NOT!
Putin will likely benefit from international chaos and weakening western economies. Trump's check will be in the mail if there's any honor among grifters and their Russian spymasters.
4
It’s ok. The global economy is a scam anyway.
3
Somehow America elected a television performer and it turns out he knows barely anything about economics or sound governance. Who knew?
Turns out trade experts and renown economists know that the spark and aftermath of Trump's trade wars will bring a net loss in US jobs — perhaps 500,000 of them.
It will hit auto workers quite quickly.
Secondly, most U.S. imports come from our U.S. allies!!
http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2018/04/will-new-steel-tari...
6
Let's face it. Next time when the business leaders come out lying about the consequences of left-wing policy such as tariffs or some other limit on the "free market", we should dismiss them. Trump has shown that the economy can thrive even when blatantly anti-capitalist policies are pursued. The global economy is a random number generator. The only thing to know about it is that it goes up and every so often it collapses. There is nothing rational about it, no invisible hand. Eventually, it will eat Trump too. Given that he is already unpopular, the collapse has the potential to make him the most hated president in American history.
4
This maniac will not rest until he upends the entire global order!
Nero comes to mind.
4
“The Nazis, were above all “a nationalist protest movement against globalization.”
This makes Trump a Fascist by definition with autocratic, dictatorship leanings. Democracy is at stake with Trump in power.
8
The trade war has been going on for decades, and America has been losing.
1
Through all of this, what is /has happened with NAFTA re-write? Is the TPP still out, or will the TPA be extended?
Are Trumps tariff's only to reinstate the strength of America's Corporate wealth in the global economy, in conjunction with banks/banking? Feeling the dominance of what we once had, needs to be bought again, as in MAGA?
Come July we'll see if the tariff's stay
Trump advertises as a capitalist. Forcing Corps to forfeit profits to produce in the States rather than more economically viable foreign sources costs the citizens monetarily. Trump needs to start developing other methods of creating job opportunities for the work force in dying industries.
1
Too much credit to Trump. Many diseases cause catastrophic results across the globe but the diseases are not planned or deliberate. Trump is a cancer we put into the office of the president and we may pay a heavy price before he is extracted. If we continue to look the other way, we may have much more to fear than a trade war. He already wants all of us to salute him and stand in his presence.
5
Trump wants to cause havoc. He enjoys it. He even said once that he enjoys destroying lives. Why are we letting him play his destructive games with our lives?
31
Steve bannon and Stephen miller as well. It’s not like they are out of the picture but the Russians must be ecstatic
4
The most significant thing about Trump's actions concerning trade and numerous other subjects is that it demonstrates how we have allowed our system of government, wisely established on a balance of powers among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, as well as between states and the Federal government, to evolve into a strongly Presidential-dominant arrangement.
As with most forms of government, power in a one-person executive (President, monarch, dictator, Central Committee First Secretary, etc.) tends to increase when the occupant of that position is popular, essentially doing what the people desire. What that produces is the legitimization (through law, Constitutional change, public expectation, and acceptance) of power in the office itself and the bureaucracies which answer to it. When a corrupt, incompetent, or evil person comes to occupy that office, he or she then has a mantle of legitimacy with which to do serious damage.
Traditional liberals looked to the central government as a source of potential and actual good. Thus they have been willing and eager to invest power in that government and, especially, the President in order to accomplish certain goals, especially regarding the environment, health, civil liberties, and social policy. Meanwhile, with the exception of security issues, traditional conservatives have been much more cautious about Federal power. As it is, current liberals and conservatives bear scant resemblance to their predecessors.
2
From 2010 on, President Obama faced a GOP dominated Congress determined to oppose everything he wanted to do and openly promising "to make him a one-term president". Even after he was re-elected, they were so self-righteously opposed that they illegally blocked his Supreme Court appointment.
This GOP Congress is equally unwilling to do their jobs and keep Donald Trump from doing the damage he is doing. Their failure to oppose his lies, contemptible behavior and bad policies may mark the beginning of the end of our republic. Or motivate the rest of us to do whatever is necessary to reclaim it.
11
But aren't we maintaining said supremacy partly because we employ those STEM grads (from around the world) here? Given the direct assault the current administration is waging against immigration of all kinds, I'm concerned we won't keep our edge. A friend of mine who works at an elite Higher Ed institution (in intn'l student/scholar srvs) is already fielding complaints/concerns from PI's and foreign students/scholars (many in STEM) whom are facing disruptive challenges to their work due to Trump administration visa program policy guidance changes. Just saying...
5
Companies and University hate the visa disruption, they cannot have cheap labor or international students any more. Companies have been laying off 40 plus STEM graduates and hiring 20 year olds with visa chains so they never complain or leave. Universities with many international students do not have to compete for students and can charge high tuition. Maybe, Corporations will consider keeping American workers longer on their payroll and maybe Universities will have to decrease tuition to keep enrollment levels steady. btw, the Visa program works for genuine candidates and might even get better for them.
3
"Mr. Trump's indecisive approach to complex world problems is causing confusion in the marketplace and that confusion is an expense few can afford."
Sorry but Trump isn't "indecisive". His certainty that his impulses are superior to any careful thought makes very decisive. Why wouldn't he be decisive since he never makes a mistake or, by his own admission, will never admit to a mistake?
4
Remember, Trump likes bankruptcy. He is currently bankrupting our nation.
3
There was a time when world prosperity was tied to US prosperity. The fact is that after some pain, maybe even a lot of pain, the world will learn to prosper without us. We will have given up whatever influence and admiration we have left. The US is only 350 million or so people out of 8 billion people on the planet. Trump is not only making America alone but also making America also-ran.
Every past instance of America-Great has come when America battled evil and promoted the well-being of the world. World cooperation is in our nation's security interests.
29
I am just one economist, but I think we are totally misconstruing the complex economy of the planet.
US jobs over 2 centuries were lost primarily due to mechanization, in agriculture, then to automation in mines, mills and factories, with AI representing just the latest shock wave.
But it's not just the US. The whole world has copied the best available tech, and after WWII, they were often building more advanced manufacturing facilities than we were, a trend that continues today.
The rest of the world needs the US economically for just one reason, our currency. When the dollar is devalued, inflated and discounted, and crypto-currency is fully in play, we should be prepared for a stunning reversal of fortunes.
We really want to blame politics, but at it's core, our distress is based in technology and economics.
It really is the economy, stupids.
16
That's rude. Politics is not helping in this era.
That's rude.
Yes, the irony is that after we bomber our enemies back to the stone age during WWII, we helped them rebuild their industries with the most modern technology available, while American industries sat back and did little to improve themselves.
We have always been concerned with immediate returns and ignored the long game. It now comes back to haunt us.
The global economy never has recovered from the 2008 crash. Sovereign debt long ago reached unsustainable levels. Today the "booming" NYSE has happened for 3 basic reasons: the rich have no where else to put their money because all other markets have almost collapsed; repatriation of trillions with Trump's tax amnesty; and massive margin buying or debt buying more than double the margin debt in 2008. These have raised the price of terrible stocks along with the few viable companies. Most buyers by index funds, which raises the entire fleet, including those ships that should have sunk long ago. Expect a major global crash. When no one knows because the super rich will try to prop the system up as long as they can. But within the next 1 to 5 years. A huge crash like none seen before.
7
People like simple answers, even if the simple answer is not really simple and not really an answer.
There is no simple solution to the displacement of the American worker. No matter how we slice it, the rest of the world is huge, and will buy from the cheapest provider. But Trump promises to get tough on those who "took" our opportunity and even if the action doesn't deliver the right results, for many it delivers the right attitude.
Do NOT assume that Congress will go Democratic over this. Too many see the tough talk as valuable, and don't connect the dots when prices increase and jobs decrease. And too many will be happy to exalt over the tough talk and blame almost everyone else - Liberals, immigrants, Obama, the Swamp - for their misery.
People like to keep it simple. They don't need to understand to approve or to bother themselves with educating themselves. Trump will wind this round even if people lose.
20
I agree. It's the simple people that are responsible for Trump. The simple people don't read, don't research, don't write, don't participate in a meaningful way, they just ... do! They do listen to spouses, they do listen to neighbors, they do listen to their "ilk", they do listen to their bar cronies, etc. Whether the simple people that listen to the other simple people, whether they're right or wrong, it's always easiest to stick with the tribe. As for independent thinkers, hopefully we outnumber the simple people, learned our lesson and go vote!
2
From a very simplistic point of view, I can see Trump's logic. If the U.S. buys more goods than it sells in the aggregate, then we are spending down our accumulated wealth, spreading it overseas to countries that can produce them more cheaply. That is a scary notion.
The problem is that global trade is much more complicated. We don't just trade goods. We buy and sell considerable services, and we attract foreign capital and/or invest it abroad. The global flow of capital is the fuel that drives the global economy. Ultimately, the rising tide lifts all the boats, but the goods deficit remains until labor and production costs are balanced out.
That's a hard sell to a Trump voter who used to work in a steel mill, auto factory, or who grows soybeans.
4
one of the pieces of the trade problems trump is creating is his desire for U.S. dependence on Russia. If you look at the targets of his actions, all our traditional allies plus China, what you see is that much of that trade can shift to Russia if our partners raise tariffs in response to Trumps attacks on them. Which by the way is their right to do in the face of his spurious attacks.
His entire time in office has been about softening the U.S. view of Russia and if Russia suddenly steps in and starts buying our excess products, then the American view from the heartland will shift to favoring Russia. Which has increased steel production to 6030 Tons in April 2018, up from 5700 in March and vastly higher than their history going back to 1992.
Russia is already the worlds second largest Aluminum producer only behind China. While that gap is large Russia has excess capacity and low labor costs so ramping up is not really a problem.
Russia could easily buy whole soybeans and store them as it builds capacity to crush them and meet world demands as well as produce other soy based products currently re-imported by the U.S.
Keep an eye out folks, I suspect we will soon here Trump "negotiating" a deal with Russia to buy excess farm products and sell us metals.
12
Time to think of a far better deterrent than merely losing an election for those who support and enable Trump et al for not only undermining the US and world's economies (and our health and welfare) but also for destroying humanity's chances of survival in a few more generations on our drastically climate-changing earth. By then there won't be anyone to read about all their "winning."
6
Considering it is the US that owes more money to other countries than any other country does or ever has, and our interest rates are effectively set by their demand, I suggest most Americans will soon come to rue the fact their President slept through every class at Wharton.
20
Once again, we have a case of 'those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it". I am surprised the author of this article does not mention the "Smoot-Hawley" Act of the late 1920's early 1930's that implemented much of the same tariff strategy that Trump is trying now and all it accomplished was to dig the world in to a deeper depression.
What is scarier now however, as bad as Smoot-Hawley was, it was at a time in which the world and trade were nowhere near as large nor as integrated as they are now. For Trump and his supporters to think for even a second this is going to be a win situation for America and the world, they are in for an extremely rude awakening.
37
The high tariffs imposed and maintained largely by Republicans in the late 1800's until circa 1920 were one thing. Back then, the (largely self-sufficient) USA had recently become the largest industrial power on the globe, surpassing such nations as Britain and Germany. But this is the 21st Century, the terrible Era of "Globalization." USA is hardly the world's preeminent manufacturer these days - China has been the "Factory of the World" for some time. Germany remains an industrial powerhouse, and many Third World nations are vying to achieve the lowest possible wages and the least environmental protections imaginable; they produce more and more stuff each and every day. Trump ought to know the USA is not in the position of dictating terms re: the global economic situation that it used to enjoy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports
https://www.quora.com/Economic-History-At-what-point-did-the-US-become-t...
11
Trump does not care. His modus operandi has always been to bully people and have temper tantrums to get his way. He learned from his mob-lawyer-mentor Cohen.
As I note in my post. I suspect that soon we will see Russia stepping in to buy excess farm product and sell us metals. These trade wars are an attempt by trump to tie the U.S. to Russia economically and become dependent on them.
13
He knows nothng
2
Who knew trade and industrial policy were so complicate?
9
Mr. Trump's indecisive approach to complex world problems is causing confusion in the marketplace and that confusion is an expense few can afford. Of course, his friends who may know what is going on have ample opportunities to cash in on the ups and downs of the world market. Where is Congress, why won't they do their job and bring balance to this abuse of power?
27
Trump doesn't even understand what a deficit is, likening it to handing money to China which China then burns, as opposed to giving us a good or service back.
Since I learned that in high school Econ, and Trump somehow got into Wharton, I've concluded that my high school was superior to Wharton.
30
Trump's trade policies do not resemble win-win outcomes. What he believes he can achieve, is to improve the economic conditions of upper 10% of the US, at the expense of the entire populations of trading partners and allies. The US has the highest per capita GDP, and Trump will only lower all trading partners per capita GDP, which would result in a lose-lose outcome for all. Another "Great Depression" could occur, and only the 1% will benefit.
11
"Trump's trade policies do not resemble win-win outcomes. What he believes he can achieve, is to improve the economic conditions of upper 10% of the US, at the expense of the entire populations of trading partners and allies."
You forget to mention the expense of American middle class and working poor.
2
What college did this guy Trump go to. They should have taught American history and the part in history where the GOP two out of touch members voted for a 1932 Smoot and Hawley tariff on our allies. It failed miserably and they were kicked out of office the next year. The GOP are filled with such anger they need to get out of office and work at Trumps coal mines. Maybe that will get rid of their hostility towards the 99 percent who aren't like them . If it is any consolation I read in the news Trumps supporters out west are struggling and very upset. They are reaping what they sow.
9
"What college did this guy Trump go to. They should have taught American history and the part in history where the GOP two out of touch members voted for a 1932 Smoot and Hawley tariff on our allies."
He had bone spurs on day they taught that.
3
Another win for Russia, they are going to get tired of winning. All of Trump's trade policies seem to hurt our allies and bolster those who want to see a divide between the people who have always stood by us in war and peace.
Like Trump's inhumane "No Tolerance" tactics of ripping children from their mothers and fathers on the border, Trump is alienating himself from decency and goodwill. The United Nations has called these immoral acts on the border 'human rights violations.' America we can do better than this!
15
Let the buyer beware! In this case the buyers are voters who fell for his line in 2016.
6
This guy Trump is going to cause a global depression. I’m calling my broker on Monday to sell all my stocks to raise cash.
3
I hope you listened to Krugman and sold everything the day after Trump got elected.
1
What is our trade deficit with OPEC since the embargo?
4
You liberals need to calm down and remember the economic principle of elasticity. The markets will expand and contract- What you fail to see is the strength and global leverage of United States. Just the mention of "tariffs" causes world markets to spin.. That's a good thing. Remember everyone wants to live here! How many thousands of Americans are waiting in line at the Chinese, Mexican or Russian embassy for work permits? ZERO! If the U.S. is in a recession will illegal immigrants stop crossing our borders? Will wealthy Chinese, Russians, Saudi and Europeans give up their 5th Avenue Penthouses? NO! We may tank for a while- but the market will always correct itself.. These are the times.
3
"These are the times"....
Yes, this is the New York Times but, if you head over to that bastion of conservatism, The Washington Times, you will see conservatives are equally as worried about Trumps trade policies. Maybe they need the lecture.
1
and what conservatards like you fail to realize is that those people want to come here because of our (former) open society.
If you clowns get your way and close it down, even for a time, the desirability of being in the US will fall. That is the elasticity you should be worried about.
You should also note that all these trade shenanigans are not about our partners getting a better deal,, they are about making Russia a desirable trading partner that trump is trying to make the U.S. dependent upon.
Your types and he are handing control of the U.S. economy to Putin which makes you all traitors to the Constitution.
2
What tyoe of country do we want to live in?
Trump has a point. Americans can't compete on the world stage. They simply don't have the education and skills to compete. Coincidentally the same people that lack the skills and education to compete voted for him and continue to support him.
There is a notion that people aren't voting in their self interest. Americans at this point haven't just lost skills, they have lost self confidence. They love Trump because he speaks to their fear and self loathing.
36
You are wrong. I am highly educated and live in one of the most affluent zip code in a blue state. A lot of people here are starting to support Trump. We all recognize, while Countries around the World have more stem graduates, America stands alone in the number of innovative technology and life saving drugs produced. Name any technology company outside US that has produced new industries or created new drugs.
3
you support him only so long as you keep getting deeper tax cuts and the burden to pay our national bills is pushed off on to others or just ignored.
When he tries to file for Bankruptcy for the U.S. we will see how much you support him then.
2
He also tells them things they want to hear, but, most of them bear no resemblance at all to reality.
1
Fear, when you have huge amounts of capital, is easier to profit from, than a growing economy. Enter Trump and his demolition crew. Exit-Demcracy and global wealth. Profit for a tight cadre of the ready.
3
Trump wanted to make us tired of winning.
And here we are.
20
Previous Presidents sought to provide themselves with advice from the best and the brightest knowing how impactful major decisions can be not only on the U.S. but also on the world..President Trump has surrounded himself with "yes men" who seek to validate his unsupported, unsound, seat of the pants, pandering campaign promises such as denial of climate change, withdrawal from trade agreements to get "a better deal" without understanding the immediate impact of those actions, withdrawal from international treaties, etc..and then, the Republican Congress following the Pied Piper without thought other than to avoid being tossed out by his base in the primaries.....The Founders' worst fear? A mindless, autocratic king !
5
He will continue to wreak havoc to US and the world to garner media attention on himself, another word , he does not care about US or the world as long as he is the center of attention.
Congress being spineless and lack of integrity is actually helping creating bigger and bigger opening over time for China to become de Facto leader of the world.
With years of austerity of communism, Chinese are used and can endure another financial hardship cause by trade war, but US ??
Hope the voters will recognize this before it is too late rectify and repair what Lier-in-Cjief and GOPs have done so far to US and the free world.
5
Donald Trump's judgement and assessment of the world around us is deeply flawed.
Yesterday Trump called Kim Jong Un a "strong leader" and a "great negotiator."
Most people understand that a ruthless dictator who starves, imprisons and murders his own people is not "negotiating" with them. A man who assassinated his immediate family members to rid himself of perceived threats to his power is not "negotiating." Kim is not "negotiating" anything with the people of North Korea. He rules them like they are dogs.
We should all be frightened by the casual remarks coming out of Donald Trump's mouth. Trump is not living in the real world.
28
Trump is having two pieces of chocolate cake with extra whipped cream tonight to celebrate the headline that he is straining the global economy. He has never felt more important in his life.
Their is clearly no functional Republican leadership. They are all hiding under their desks while Trump trashes everything in his sight and Americans pay the price for his extreme narcissism. In the absence of any viable Republican leadership, perhaps a gag and straight jacket would be the best solution for our national dilemma.
25
It seems so obvious how destructive Trump's foreign and domestic policies are, feeding the destabilization of decades long norms and sound policies. It is being driven by ethnocentric nationalism, racism and criminality. What frightens me is that, if Trump is in office for four years, no matter what happens, he will blame Obama, Clinton and Democrats with no more evidence or truth than his birtherism propaganda. Given his terrible behavior, I can only hope his base is shrinking, but is the country becoming numb to it all?
3
Congress does nothing to reign in Trump because of Trump's ongoing reign of terror.
If Congress and Senators speak out against Trump they know Trump will respond by tweeting support for their opponents, slime them, threaten to reveal dirt about their wives, stick them with vulgar nicknames, accuse their fathers of being Lee Harvey Oswald's accomplices, smear their reputations and tell whopping lies about them to force them from office.
This is our current government, where the political party in power cowers in a corner least madman Trump drive over them in retaliatory rage, then back up and do it again.
Meanwhile, our country is at Trump's mercy.
5
Now business-and-economy-wound congressional Republicans have a reason to dump Trump.
[With an uneasy eye on his base.]
11
It's simpy really.
No red state has a good economy now anyway.
But those "failed" blue states are booming.
They need to be openly punished for their insubordination.
Make red America great again and always remember "Who's your daddy".
5
Trump's plan is to bankrupt the US just as he did six times with his own businesses. Ivanka will gather up more Trademarks along the way while remaining complicit.
29
Recession is coming. Plan for it.
6
Baloney. In fact some level of threat of action based on trade fairness is always desirable to keep producers and buyers "real" so to speak. The attitude of this story is as lame as the nightly news grim presentations of a dip in the stock market as cause for the average person to hang their heads in despair. It's baloney, we have plenty of goods, there are no serious shortages, if people eat less apples they eat something else. Businesses need to be aware that there are watchers who will act, or they will just conspire against consumers for their gain at our expense.
1
Right now we may, but in the near future? Do any of the Trumpsters have a clue about global economics?
1
“Trade wars are fun, and easy to win”
This will go right up there with “Mission Accomplished”
4
Trump’s belief in bravado and macho “heroics” leads him to believe he can muscle his way to success. This is a juvenile accessment. In the end he’ll fail. He might have a few wins but he’ll make so many enemies along the way that it will all catch up. It always does. The moment he show weakness in the polls or otherwise, his so-called friends will turn. It could only take a recession. We’ll see.
8
A simple Google search will show you that Elizabeth Warren supports the tariffs. So, it’s not so simple as deranged Trump syndrome. When two people who are usually so opposed to each other agree, then there may be some substance. Be smart, don’t let your hate of Trump and the Americans who voted for him blind you to facts.
4
Good.
Anything that causes our garbage economy to slow down. Use it once, throw it out.
And the over-blown stock market.... and hurray interest rates are going up at last.
Is normalcy around corner.
4
Didn't Gil Scott Heron say, "The collapse will be fake news-i-fied"
1
One of the greatest movie ever made was Trading Places. The movie teaces us a couple of things, one never ever write off American ability to stay wealthy, maybe the players will change but wealth will stay in America. Two, when people are poor they can be controlled. When poor people get rich and then get poor, there will be a world of hurt. Those people will be more in China, EU and Canada. As Chinese imports decrease to US, China will dump their goods in other countries. Each country will enact thier own version of protection. Expect China to explode as people lose their wealth. China will have to rely on rampant Nationalism or start a war to distract the people. Remember, never, ever, write off American capitalism. Ever.
2
These countries may also unite and bring the US down too. You are underestimating the rest of the world. They have been rising for the last 25 years and we are not so dominant anymore.
2
Let’s face it, America is the Walmart of the world. The rest of the world may put on a brave face for a little while, but everyone will be erecting tariff walls very soon. Expect more misery, more refugees, more terrorism and more chaos in the world. Luckily for America, there is a vast ocean to keep many people out and as the biggest arms manufacturer, expect a boom in that industry.
Trump loves to brag that our economy is the "strongest in history", yet he seems to be doing everything he can to disrupt it and cause a recession. If that is what he achieves, what countries will benefit? (Hint: China and Russia.)
3
US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was formerly a leader of the Bank of Cyprus, a well-known money laundering operation, that funneled Russian money to Trump. Is he the right person to be working on trade issues critical to the United States and the global economy? Or is he just another pal of Trump's who is getting a pay-off and has no knowledge or experience in trade issues?
16
Listen from the very beginning when Trump threatened aluminum and steel tariffs, our business saw immediate price changes, long before any tariffs were enacted. Aluminum quotes used to be good for 30 days now they're only good for 48 hours! And as far as Steel, one of our biggest US suppliers within two weeks was forced into chapter 11, based upon contracts that had been signed, but they realized they couldn't fulfill economically.
Just from the standpoint of the aluminum and steel tariffs, The Only Winners in the game appear to be middlemen working on sales commission. As far as Jobs? My gut tells me that far more jobs are going to be lost in the US then are available for potential Revival of manufacturing. This isn't going to bring back the Heyday of the Pennsylvania steel companies. Those companies never wanted to make the Capital Improvements necessary to compete on the world stage, and still won't.
9
Remember, the US is the focus of the trade war it's trying to start, virtually against all other countries. I'm sure all other countries will be more than happy to ramp up trade with the 93% of the world population outside of the USA. I hope all other countries continue to build free and fair trade agreements like TPP and CETA until the US begs to be allowed back in.
27
This is wonderful news for American workers who for decades have been the victims of globalization. Trump promised to put America first, and bringing jobs home is exactly what he said he would do.
4
Try to obtain a basic grasp of 21st Century economics and you’ll appreciate that Trump is set to render the United States even more vulnerable in today’s globalized world. Shooting oneself in the foot may relieve tension but it doesn’t solve the underlying issue. Take it from somebody who knows here in a Brexit Britain which is careering towards catastrophic irrelevance.
20
OK, so where are all these jobs? They won't be in the
coal mines, or in new automobiles - these are already
stable for now. Its new jobs that would be meaningful,
for rebuilding our infrastructure, bridges and roads.
But no republican has ever proposed that we rebuild our nation's physical needs. We are rotting from within but these politicians are only interested in taxing us people!!
The republicans do not actually 'Perform' any work for us.
Instead, Mcconnell once again is giving all his republican members a whole month of a free, all-paid vacation.
4
This nonsense will not be creating any jobs in the USA. Quite the contrary some industries will be hard hit and we will see substantial layoffs. It is amazing the havoc one man Trump can do with the proverbial "jawbone"; his own.
The US will hurt the most. Why? Labor cost in the US is much more to make goods than China, etc.
13
Tariffs equalize that playing field. The US has the consumers all the other countries want and they will compete with each other to get the largest share of our market. As jobs return, as profit-taking from offshoring moderates, our economic engine, also known as the middle class, will begin to fire up again. Right now the gas tank is being drained and we're limping along hoping to get to the next gas station. The next immediate thing we need to deal with is a 'tax' on automation or we will be right back here again in 10 years.
1
REJ - You are afraid of change and completely delusional. The coming Trump recession will hurt the middle class most, causing businesses to close and driving up unemployment. By then, we will have lost almost all of our momentum, lost any support from our allies and become a second class economy. Just ask pork and soybean farmers, steel and aluminum vendors. We're headed for a fall.
What jobs? Where are they coming from, and why on earth would we tax automation? Let me guess; you own a buggy company and a horse.
We're about to see a new restructuring of the world order. Post WWII Europe was in shambles and China had devolved into civil war so the US was the economic powerhouse and set the rules for the rest of the world. Trump is shaking things up but these countries are no longer weak and reliant on our good graces. They're going to form new partnerships that will sideline the US and ensure that we will never have the power to disrupt their economic security again.
58
To the commenters who advocate for 'shaking things up.'
Shaking things up is one thing. Burning down the house is arson. Arson is destructive, can be life threatening, and is a crime.
72
I didn't argue for shaking things up. I argued for Bernie, who would have slowly and carefully turned the ship of state in the right direction.
But Democrats had to have the "safe candidate" so now Trump has us heading straight for the rocks.
Just before the 2016 election, I watched an episode of "Frontline"on PBS, about both HRC and Trump, chronicling their early years. An incident with DJT keeps coming back to me. A woman whose family was good friends with Fred Trump's described a gathering where all the children except DJT where building a tower from playing cards to see how tall they could make it. DJT was off to the side and when the tower got tall, he ran over and gleefully knocked it down. (The woman implied that years of behavior like this is what got him sent off to military high school.) That incident is all anyone needs to know about this man. No conscience. And his ego strokes come from destruction.
104
@thinkin': what an excellent illustration, and we are tempted to believe that the man really hasn't changed one bit. yet, he has built so many towers since then. are they to hide his destructive side? [i know, i am trying to joke so as not to choke on my disappointment regarding the fact that democracy isn't strong enough yet to prevent various disasters from happening.]
Hi thinkin'- what he did is very telling-- he loves to destroy things and now he is working on destroying our country --
2
I keep on saying: remember Hoot-Smawley. And just like in 1930, Congress takes a blind eye to what everybody knows what is going to happen.
6
Many people were ruined by 8 years of George W. Bush's policies in 2008.
President Obama rebuilt the economy and left in place for Trump a strong, stable economy, a strong stock market and low unemployment. Obama was wise & careful and had wise economic advisers.
Trump's only mission is to undo everything Obama did. Why is anyone surprised Trump will take a blow torch and hammer to disrupt the stable "Obama economy" he inherited & remake it in his own image -- 5 bankruptcies and major U.S. banks refusing to loan money to failed businessman Donald J. Trump!! This self-created personal disaster sent Trump into the arms of Russian oligarchs and shady businessmen in places like Azerbaijan. This while Trump stiffed and ruined thousands of contractors who did work for him - American small businessmen whose lives were ruined by Donald Trump.
Nothing Trump does is going to help America's workers.
We should also be frightened Trump's corrective to the economic mess he is making is going to be WAR. Look at the mess he's making by tearing apart Obama's foreign policy....
48
@fast/furious: just the other day i heard s/o point out that most wars are preceded by trade wars. germany's military is currently running PR campaigns for young people to join. the US is building the hugest military hospital in europe, near ramstein airbase, on german soil ... "suppose they gave a war and nobody came!"
Trump is going to make the Iraq War look like a success.
15
Donald Trump has been desperate to be relevant and to have a large audience his whole life. All the more adoring, the better.
Beautiful, loyal, loud, devout people only need apply. The show must go on. The show has one star. Everyone else is a supporting actor, most are extras.
"Trade wars are fun, and easy to win." I will win at all costs. You will get sick of my winning.
If you are interested in applying for a job with the Trump Administration, please visit: https://www.whitehouse.gov
Wars of any kind are good. My wars, my economy, my generals, my people, my wall. I win. I alone can be the greatest ever. Nobody is better. Nothing else matters. Monuments to me will live forever. The mainstream media (aka the fact-checked media are fake). They will say the wall is ugly, a blight, useless, cruel and far too expensive.
Believe me. People are saying...
12
I agree with the former NY Times statement. Late last year before the tax cuts were passed there was discussion that the economy was as good as it gets. I agree the economy was doing just fine. Then this year came all the turbulence. The economy would be doing just fine now if it had been left alone. I personally consider the tax cuts just a big money grab by the power brokers. I think we need a redistribution of income and wealth to take care of people who are seriously ill or homeless, not to mention the importance of health care to everyone
6
So given that Trump is personally and specifically disrupting international trade with allies and China and disrupting immigration and human rights (immigration bans, villainizing particular countries and racial groups, capturing children & separating them from parents), it is interesting that there is little mention or demonizing Russia. Rather he wants trade sanctions lifted, wants them back in G7. His buds are their buds (Manafort, his sons) I find it amazing that there isn’t more speculation of his being a puppet of the Russians... Certainly Russia benefits from all the turmoil and chaos that is being inflicted on the world by this one individual - now USA’s first dictator. Chairman Trump?
12
Where are the voices of the SPINELESS Dems?
Do they feel the Republicans already have enough rope?
1
Isn't this a well-known tactic in game or decision theory, convincing the other party that you're not a rational actor?
Maybe taking a page from the Sheriff Bart book of negotiation? (ala Cleavon Little, Mel Brooks)
4
One would hope that after this 4-year debacle is over, Congress acts to rein in presidential executive power. Although with its current weakness on full show, I'm not holding out much hope. It is a nonsense that one sick, deluded narcissist can break everything he wants simply because it garners him the daily attention that he craves. There is no other reason for it. There is no thought, no reason, other than the benefit to Trump feeling powerful. So basically, one man, one sick, deluded man, can lie through his teeth daily and break the world's systems simply because he can. Is there not something wrong with that? Eh, Congress?
18
It seems that no matter how outrageous the decision, the underlying effects of Trump's actions are always worse for Western bloc countries than those in the East. Most would agree that Trump is not smart enough to plan and execute major programs on his own and it is less likely he is being guided by his famously ignored advisors. Who is the puppet master pulling the strings? Whoops, I forgot. "I'm no puppet, you're the puppet." Punch and Judy, anyone?
11
Six months from now, I expect a recession to be upon us. The probability that the stock markets will drop is real.
Of course, our presicet will suggest such advrsity was caused by:
1.) Hillary Clinton/ Barak Obama.
2.) Those 13 Romans.
5
My brother works for ThyssenKrupp and voted for Trump. Hopefully this will not impact his job.
Donald Trump seems to believe, "If it ain't broke, break it!" This man is a destroyer, he relishes how important it makes him feel to hurt people and destroy things. The sooner he is off the world stage, the better for all the rest of us.
55
I hope the Trump voters read this article, but somehow I doubt it. First, the yare not NY Times readers, and second, they probably cannot rad, just like Trump.
15
Sorry to say, but I feel even if they did read the article they wouldn't understand it! This man is destroying our country. Our voices will be heard through our votes and I do believe it will be heard well during the next Presidential election and it won't be Donald Trump who wins!!
13
Trump is completely ignorant of economics and trade. The question we must first and foremost is whose instructions is Trump following and who will benefit the most from his actions. As always with Trump: Follow the money..it will certainly not lead to the American people!
42
I am sorry but Americans are dumb if they fail to realize the decline they are in. If they'd travel more, they would understand who much the rest of the world progressed while the US regressed under Obama and Bush. Trump is trying to reverse this trend but it may be too late.
6
I don't think wanting to take insurance away from 52 million people because they have a pre-existing condition is moving us forward. Just as starting a trade ward is not going to move us forward. Both of these things along will be devastating to many!
18
Oh, please. It's just the opposite.
I think we are about to learn how a self proclaimed expert “Deal Maker” drove a Gambling Casino into bankruptcy.
19
You don’t fix what ain’t broke. Trump is breaking everything.
33
Where are the Democrats' voices against this insanity?
4
Bankrupting the US like he bankrupted his businesses and his soul long ago.
26
Wreaking havoc and chaos is what gets headlines and, for the president, attention is the whole ball game. He has literally turned the world upside down and he revels in the media notices he commands. When red state farmers suffer financial losses, the president will blame the Democrats, Obama, Hillary, Comey, even FBI agent Strzok for their plight. Perhaps one day his supporters will finally get the message that this president is not their friend or benefactor.
11
Calm down. The Donald has said everything's going to be all right. He wouldn't lie now.....would he?
17
And still no peep from the GOP.
13
Trump never reads anything, ignores all expert advice, hires only sycophantic mirrorers of his ignorant notions, and fires anyone who contradicts his lies.
Thus he launches a needless trade war based on his weird zero-sum-game transactional notion of international trade. Of course this kind of stupid exercise of power will hurt millions of people.
Republican enablers of this fool of a president will deserve punishment at the polls in November. They are deserting even their own traditional principles to support the Trump cult. When the MAGA-heads start burning their red hats after they realize that Trump threw them under the bus, it will be interesting to see the GOP back-pedal on its slavish endorsement of our would-be emperor.
19
too bad so sad for the Trump sycophants that elected this totally unfit president. He is causing upheaval and chaos because he loves to be calling the shots--- all the horrible things he is doing is being enabled by a republican congress-- history will not look kindly on any of these monstrous politicians who are a serious threat to our democracy
5
Making your counterpart believe you're not a rational actor? Sounds like a negotiation strategy from a Mel Brooks movie.
10
“That president is driving us to bankruptcy”. Bankruptcy is by far trump's specialty, isn't it?
14
This is occurring a only a couple of weeks into raising tariffs and American Farmers and steel manufacturers are already seeing the negative results. Trump is truly blind and worse yet unaware and unwilling to see past this foolish endeavor.
I keep wondering what more this terrible leader can do and then he comes up with something new.
13
OK, we get it- you didn't like Hillary. Neither did we. But I doubt she would have broken the world.
Register people to vote. Get to the polls. Stop this insanity. YOU are the adult in the room, now.
12
What in the world to proponents of tariffs imagine end ultimate outcome of this ridiculous exercise will be? A mythical caricature of the 1950's U.S. economy where outdated factories employing workers (but no unions, thank you) with outdated skills lift us out of the doldrums and insulate us from the challenges of progress?
Actually, the real endgame of a trade war is finally calling it off. But that doesn't erase the damage done along the way. Obvious on its face, tariffs with hurt many more people than it helps.
3
The latest Canadian news item re: our trade with the U.S.
A Canadian law professor posits that American pharmaceutical patents and other intellectual property licences could become vulnerable if Canada suspended those patents on Canadian soil. Canada would then be able to produce those drugs. No other country holds more pharmaceutical and other property licenses than does the U.S. and of all the lobbyists in Washington, the pharmaceutical industry is the most powerful by far.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/second-opinion-trade-dispute-canada-us-dru...
6
Go for it. It would make drugs more affordable for all of us, eventually.
Of course, nobody would ever do any research of any sort for any reason again in the future because they won't be guaranteed obscene profits at the expense of the sick. Since most truly sick people can't afford the stuff anyway, they won't be losing much.
2
As I have occasionally pointed out, it is not that the Republicans don't know the difference between success and failure, it is just that they prefer failure.
There is no accounting for taste.
14
Thank god the humming global economy is saving us from the sins committed. Can you imagine the catastrophe if trade wars were unleashed as a policy to protect the domestic economy 10 years ago?
2
Reagan tax cuts for the 1% = Great Recession. Bush 43 tax cuts for the 1% = Great Recession. Trump tax cuts for the 1% = Great Recession/Depression...only a matter of time.
12
A large part of the problem here is that Trump and his economic nationalists think transactionally but not strategically. It’s why he prefers bi- rather than multi-lateral negotiations and trade agreements, because there is more opportunity to ‘get the better of’ one’s opponent. Because his experience is limited to business, he wants every sector of business to show a profit. It’s why he continually harps on Canada’s dairy sector, while ignoring the fact that the US enjoys similar imbalances in other sectors.
As the article points out, the US has a tremendous advantage over its trading partners at the moment, because of a currently strong economy and sheer size of our market. At the moment, Trump has a strong hand, and in his mind that means a transactional strategy can work. But I seriously doubt that this can work for long. Allies who have been abused by this transactional trade war will not come to our economic aid in the future. And economic policy must be devised with diplomatic, security, environmental and other interests in mind. That bigger picture is something Trump will never understand, and the US will suffer as a result.
6
Trump fails to appreciate the complexity of business activities outside of his own business experiences where he has been successful.
2
Greed. This is an example of American/Trump greed. America is prospering. The world is prospering. But America/Trump want even more. Good is not good enough. America/Trump has to become greedy. For the greedy, good is never good enough. And then even better than good enough is still not good enough. It matters not that American/Trumpian greed can take down the world economy. Trump/American greed for more and more and more and more is the greedy principal, regardless of who and how many get damaged, in America, and worldwide. A lesson to be learned for any one who will learn it. Hey, GOP, you folks can stop it. Just do what you were elected to do, that is protect the nation and its people, as well, as cooperate as a world leader. Hey, GOP, you folks just do what you were elected to do. Please!!!!
3
Trump’s business knowledge is not very deep. If it was, he’d know that we depend upon huge commodity exports from our abundant lands to support much of our international trade and that tariffs can be imposed that can make competitors who were not as competitive push our exports down. He’d know that since the 1970’s domestic steel and aluminum producers have not the capacity to meet the needs of domestic manufacturers, so that imposing tariffs will lead to domestic sellers raising prices towards the imported steel and aluminum prices rather than remain lower because domestic supplies could not replace foreign ones. Rather than cut importers out the tariffs raise domestic costs for the products both imported and from domestic sources.
As for how long the U.S. economy can take a trade war, the margins on most products purchased to produce other goods are low, profitability depends upon large volumes not big margins, and even small increases can have big effects. Big does not mean less sensitivity to small changes.
Tariffs imposed upon American exports by foreign importers will have like effects in other countries dependent upon American products. The ripple effect could stall economic expansion globally by hammering down demand for a huge proportion of products and services across the planet.
I do not see the business knowledge in this administration that is presumed by so many.
4
Market volatility due to a president's volatility. This is also a threat to national security. The impact on those states that elected Trump will be severe. Will they connect the dots, that it is their choice Trump that they elected to cause chaos that is turning their own economies upside down? Soon they will find they are truly the forgotten. Education and retraining programs are already being cut. The 52 million Americans with preexisting conditions -- many of whom -- live in Trump states, will lose their healthcare. Their crops may not even be harvested as migrant workers are kept away due to immigration (Georgia is a good case in point). Pork, apples, steel, washing machines, motorcycles, bourbon, etc. will all be impacted, plus the shipping and other related industries.
Thousands of children are being kidnapped from their families by Trump officials due to Trump policies in a crime against humanity. Students are losing their student loan forgiveness despite following the rules about working in public service for almost a decade. Pretty much every sector of the economy except that of heirs of wealthy is being disrupted. Trump and his GOP sycophants daily attack the Justice Department, law and order, and those who protect this country from terrorists, Russian espionage, and criminals.
Are you sick of winning yet, Trump voters? You broke it.
7
It's working just as Trump and his plutocrat buddies intended. The poorer we all are, the richer they become.
5
World economy has been growing by leaps and bonds for the last 30 years. But so has inequality all over the world. When the number of economic losers outnumber the economic winners the balance of power gets tilted. MSM try to portray election of Trump as some unique phenomena brought about by intolerance and racial hatred of poor white 'deplorable' and exploitation of that feeling by wily adversary Russia. If so, how to explain rise of non-traditional politicians and parties in Austria, Italy , Greece and even India. Russia again? Republican party got it's jolt in 2016 and hopefully is awake. Democratic party is still in a self induced hypnosis.
3
There is world-wide economic inequality. That brings forth economic fear among the populations that are not part of the top 1%. That is when depraved politicians and hucksters can get a foothold. Trump used the inequality of wages and opportunity to drive a wedge between the educated and uneducated in America. These politicians use racism and class warfare to disable normal government and bring in Fascism.
2
Trump needs chaos to thrive. if it doesn't occur naturally, he's shown he's quite willing, even eager, to manufacture it.
6
Whether it's starting trade wars, or changing laws... these things are not what scares me about Trump because if the people are unhappy about them, they can vote wiser next time and reverse laws swiftly. Even if they cause damage, these things are reversible.
The things that are irreversible are the behavioral teachings he is giving to a new generation of his followers that buy into him. The bullying, divisiveness, treating people with little respect, lying, arrogance, etc. These things are not reversible with the signing of a paper.
Furthermore, I lament the failures of the Democratic party to defeat Trump. They choose their battles unwisely, and fail to come to the middle at a time when the country so desperately needs it. If the party doesn't get its act together we're in for a lot more Trump. And the longer we have him, the worse our world will be. This guy should be easy to defeat, and the fact that they haven't figured it out yet is almost as disturbing as Trump himself.
6
The problem is not Trump or his allies in power. The problem is the millions and millions of people who willingly put them them there, over and over again for 30 yrs, to their own detriment. It's time to stop hand-wringing about the "forgotten man" or the economic perils of middle America. These are smokescreens hiding the fact that a huge swath of our friends, neighbors, and co-workers are driven solely by fetishized nationalism and a deep hatred of "liberals," with only a vague sense of what that even means. Your distress is their only guiding principle, and they will watch their own house burn if it means that rational, thinking people are enraged.
8
Amy, you make an excellent point. I'm not sure when this division actually started, but I believe it was fueled and turned into a bonfire by Fox entertainment channel. There seem to be several class wars going on: the very rich and very conservatives against the rest of us(?); the anti-education/anti-intellectuals against anyone with an education; people who have a great need to control others and want smaller government, less regulation, no abortion, Christian religions only, increased military spending, less help for the less fortunate versus/against people who want government that benefits all, including the less fortunate; laws that make sense, are needed by citizens and have nothing to do with Christian religions; the protection of the environment and of citizens' health and well-being even if it means a large corporation might not be able to exploit or bribe its way to becoming even richer by colluding with corrupt officials who would sell our land and Constitution for their own profit. These are some of my not-fleshed-out thoughts that came to mind when I read your post. You are correct. Somehow being rational and knowing how to think has become anathema to too many U.S. citizens, and it is causing great harm to our country.
3
“Your distress is their guiding principle.” Bingo.
3
So crazy that the country that developed globalization and freer trade for its own benefit is now destroying the deals that made America greater than it ever was. With Putin running the White House, though, the US is working for the benefit of Russia, and becoming as globally isolated as the Kremlin. China will step in to assume world economic leadership and America may become the next Hermit Kingdom.
7
How much chaos, hardship, and even armed conflict with the likes of Trump be wiling to generate to cover up the hard facts about the Mueller investigation and the NY Attorney General's lawsuit against the Trumps (and their bogus "charities")?
THAT'S his aim, motive, and goal here; make no mistake about it! And he is again succeeding, judging by placement of stories.
Interest in American industries and workers? Nill. Where were / are those "Make America Great" campaign hats made? Why doesn't Trump lead by "example"? Because that's not his interest.
5
I wish we had presidents who were better economists than politicians. But, then again, most economists favor capitalists over labor.
Here's something to chew on: capitalism exists within society not the other way around. St. Augustine and St. Thomas Aquinas talked of fair exchange: this is long forgotten because it is the bane of capital. Marx and Engel also talked of a fair exchange between capital and labor: we scream it down as communism, a broken form of the socialism they promoted.
Capitalists complain of theft of intellectual property yet they never properly compensate middle class scientist and engineers who invented that same property. This idea is personally laughable to me having participated in inventions and even inventing them myself. The cost of invention is over $1MM, far beyond means of the inventor class.
Corporations have benefited from manipulating labor by promoting globalization. They have raked in the dividends by cheating American labor. And, they have done it under both Republican and Democratic administrations. Shame on them.
It is a small wonder that the US population is declining, that opioids are devouring our young. One young person asked me if this wasn't a plan to commit genocide. Maybe so.
2
Trump is determined to tear down each of Obama’s accomplishments. This time it is the improved economy Trump inherited from Obama.
5
And how much money is the Trump empire raking in with these market manipulations? He’s making trade GREAT for himself and his base...who cares about the rest of the world? Not him
3
Trump’s Trade War is isolating us and in essence withdrawing us from the World’s economy so he can protect the US citizen’s who are not willing to adjust to the changes of World trade and progress. He is covering for energy sources such as coal, nuclear and solar which have been too dirty, dangerous or outstripped by our competition. Trump will not adjust himself. His view of our future is one of giving in, not adjusting.
3
It is bad enough that trump is causing ongoing chaos here in America but now he is subjecting the entire world to the same. Trump may wind up starting more than just a trade war. Impeach him now.
4
I think there are 2 reasons why President Trump is dismissive of our allies in favor of dictators: the first reason is that he seems to identify with corrupt authoritarians, and the second reason is that longtime allies are already part of "the deal". Trump is fundamentally a conman, and conmen fundamentally know when they've extracted what they can from victims & seek out new ones to swindle.
I think this era will historically be viewed as "The Age of Grift".
14
There is nothing to fear but fear itself.....FDR. Fear mongering has not affected the economy in the first 500+ days of Trump. Let us see what the future brings.
1
Maybe Trump isn't doing this to America on his own. Maybe there's a mastermind behind it and Trump is indebted to him. Maybe Trump will lose his shirt if he doesn't comply, or maybe worse. The frightening thing is America may not recover quickly, but it will because we've had major struggles before -- and not only survived, but thrived. We will again! Count on America!
The issues are bigger than tariffs. The ThysienKrupp steel mill in the pic says it all. Unions thrive in Germany but are detrimental to business stateside but why is that? Perhaps the likes of Bob Corker can answer that . . . millions in tax abatements for manufacturing in his home state but opposed the bailouts of Chrysler and GM . . . "right to work" state, union free, depressed wages, . . . God save these United States.
4
Just the fear of liberal minds and the lemming Obamanots strains me and my colleagues. However, upsetting the long standing corruption of government trade deals with other countries and the unfair advantage that some of them have is a positive step. It's just the opposite type of government interference than what everyone has grown used to and to expect.
Yes, breaking things is always easier. Especially when you don't clean up the mess.
2
We had sold out birthright and sovereignty for cheap underwear and Walmarts everywhere. It has made us lazy and weak, while others have grown strong and cunning at our expense.
A real trade war will be the end of our economy, and everyone else's. It will be the worst economic dislocation this country has ever felt. But if it works, it will give us back our nation and way of life.
3
Please define "our nation and way of life."
1
The country where white men hold, play and rig all the cards in their favor, while Blacks and white women live in differing states of virtual servitude and other minorities were all but invisible? Sorry, but I don't want that country back.
2
I totally agree, Maloyo. In my estimation, the U.S. needs to be rid of 95 percent of old, white men in government on all levels. Just look at our history. Even when they don't realize it, they are misogynists, bigots, racists, selfish, self-serving, oppressive, belittling, and emotional for all of the wrong reasons. Women and other minorities need to be in charge for a very long time. I do have hope, however, when I see the young high school students from Parkland, Fla., and elsewhere, who have stood up as adults, shouldered a burden most adults in the U.S. could never handle, and spoken so eloquently for being so young. Most of them have grown up without the intense hatred for people of another color or people just being "other" in any way--unlike most old, white men. And you old, white men who are reading this and saying, "Wait a minute; I'm not like that. I ...." So you don't like being thrown into a "group" and being labeled as the whole group? Welcome to our world.Your turn is over. We've seen what you do. Move out of the way.
How does the President have so much power? Isn't he abusing the "threat to national security" loophole.
One man should not be able to destroy the entire world economy. Is he really acting legally, and if so how can we change this to reign him in?
14
This is what happens when republicans have all the power and the courts are stacked with right wingers. Zero accountability and legal checks and balances vanish.
4
Yet another sign of nationalism.
3
From WWII to 60's, the US was on the rise.
Then the Establishment, Republicans and Democrats, started to sell out US workers for their enrichment.
Finally, Trump by luck and chance, overcame the Establishment and got elected President.
Now, he is correcting the mistakes (no, the intentional selling out of the US).
The Establishment is squealing like a pig and its supporters, such as the Liberal Media, are beside themselves.
They are afraid of becoming irrelevant.
2
You cannot turn back the clock to the 1960's. Might as well wish for horses, buggies, and buggy whips to return so the milkman can deliver your cream. So you can make your own butter.
2
trump is intentionally destroying every one of obama's acomplishments including a strong economy.
7
Trump's international strategy is out dated. Most multinational businesses were thriving in the global economy. Yet, the standard of living in the USA is in decline under Trump. Student deaths, police killings, immigration imprisonment, racial brutality are trending up. Trump has made a big mess in the world.
4
If it takes an international trade war and global recession to rid us of Trump and his Republican party, it will be worth it.
5
The trump agenda is to disrupt and he is succeeding while making himself and his friends rich. We are being played by a con-man. I just don’t see how it’s patriotic unless racism is at the heart and makes it all good for the republicans.
3
Let us hope all these WORKERS and FARMERS who adore Trump start speaking up loudly. Let's hear it, Base!
THEY will be hit hardest and already it starts with gas prices going up due to Iran sanctions being reinstated; interest rate increase means credit card interest going up, housing costs increasing; soon food costs impacted because of trade war.
Every foolish shortsighted move Trump makes hurts WORKERS most and their $500 bonus check from the giant "Trump Tax Cut" isn't going to help much.
They need to. Sit home in November and decide if they have been conned while the rest of us vote in a Dem Congress to start undoing the damage
The GOP has never been the party of the working class and they will not stand up to Trump. Ryan, McConnell et al cower. Dems will fight for workers -- even the ones who believed the PiedPiper, the King with no clothes, the CON MAN Trump whose policies and actions are destroying American workers
2
Now he sparks a trade war.
Trump looks unwell. His pronouncements on the white house lawn are increasingly bizarre. He looked out of it at the G7.
Saluting the NK general was shockingly inappropriate. His continued homage to NK's dictator is beyond comprehension.
The lying is out of control.
In short period of time, Trump has separated 2000 immigrant children/babies from their parents. He's intentionally lying about his policy on the matter.
He's planning a presidential campaign rally for 2020 later this month + it costs $200k an hour to operate Air Force One.
Republicans plan to start attacking Medicare and Social Security because their tax plan literally bankrupted us.
We are in trouble.
4
Sorry but how is the global economy already straining by the trade war when the tariffs between China and US (only) concretely kick in the month of July and we’re only announced last Friday?!
Aren’t there other underlying causes straining the global economy that are worth investigating?
Please stop with these pseudo sensational titles that clearly need more research/data behind...
2
Al, with respect, haven't you seen how quickly fear can tank the stock market? The markets hate fear and uncertainty, world markets, not just the New York Stock exchange. It has happened when Trump has said something stupid. Why wouldn't the world markets respond when they hear of a trade war possibly becoming a reality. No one wins in a trade war.
2
Stock market was doing fine after the announcement :) was really looking to buy at cheap but nope was still solid ...
And the stock market in the long run will always do well.. look back at the data ...
Just as long as no tariffs get slapped on neckties, hand bags or any other items of the Trump brand!
As far a bringing jobs back to America. Correct me if I am wrong but aren't many of the jobs we lost to cheap foreign labor are now jobs who's wages are still being paid by American corporations?
American corporations setting up factories in Mexico, Canada, and elsewhere are doing so to take advantage of cheap labor, less stringent regulations, and of course lower taxes.
American workers are the losers. American corporations are among the winners. Seems like there should be some alternative measures available to put pressure on corporations to bring jobs back other than slapping tariffs on products making them more expensive for Americans who's wages and jobs are already suffering.
1
Happy to see that our trading partners are targeting Trump states. Keep it up!
4
President Donald "5 Bankruptcies" Trump.
What could go wrong?
16
Economic vandalism!
Destroying things to prove how tough and and contemptuous you can be without hesitation or guilt is sociopathic.
This kind of behaviour was once considered a typical indicator of “juvenile delinquency.
Trump is the classic “Schoolyard Bully” - contemptuous of the “smart kids” and anyone smaller and weaker than him - desperate to hang out with the “tough kids” and act and talk like them.
Trump is a deeply insecure man; desperate to be admired and respected, or even merely feared.
THe first victims of his trade wars will be those in his “base” whose jobs depend on trade - let’s hope they connect the dots.
23
«As the Trump administration imposes tariffs on allies and rivals alike, provoking broad retaliation, global commerce is suffering disruption, flashing signs of strains that could hamper economic growth.» It's not merely the imposition of tariffs, but the manner in which this is being done ; i e, through a concerted effort to destroy the multinational, rules-based order which was constructed by the United States for its own benefit towards the end of WW II and which used such instruments as GATT and the WTO to impose order on international trade, so as not to repeat the mistakes of the 1920s and 30s, with tit-for-tat tariffs which deepened the Great Depression and contributed substantially to the outbreak of WW II. Mr Trump and his advisors seem to assume that by making threats and engaging trading partners (both allies and rivals, to employ the, to my mind misleading, terms used above) in bilateral discussions, the United States will always prevail, given its greater economic strength vis-à-vis these partners,taken one at a time....
I deem it unlikely that such tactics will work on China ; nor, if we here in Europe can finally get our act together and cast off our fond Atlanticist illusions, should it work on the EU. What it will do, however, is plunge us into a situation not unlike that which obtained in 1930, and the tariff (and shooting) wars that followed. Vestigia terrent....
Henri
8
That last time a president messed with tariffs the way trump is, the Great Depression happened. Trump supporters, this is all on you.
6
Every undergrad Econ student, taking a 1st course in International Econ, learns about Adam Smith and David Ricardo. Smith taught about productive advantage and Ricardo extended that to show how even a less productive produce can be the optimal one.
Yet such basic concepts are too complex for the man in the WH has a BA in Econ from the renowned Wharton School of Business at U- Penn. How could his degree POSSIBLY be real, yet he has 0 understanding of international trade. Just saying trade wars are easy to win betrays vast ignorance of how they work.
If I were the nations in the 3 zones: Asia (China & Japan), North America (Canada & Mexico) and Europe (the EU & other states) I'd be rapidly forming a new G-whatever to quickly renegotiate trade deals to supply & absorb products from the members. Mexico needs to switch over to New Zealand apples.
What Trump has done is destructive, dangerous, and flat-out STUPID! US manufacturing didn't leave our shores because of unfair competition. It left because, in order to weaken and ultimately break the influence of unions, "St. Ronald" put in place HUGE tax incentives for corporations to move manufacturing off-shore and out of reach of union workers. It worked, brilliantly, for the corporations (Hello! Ivanka & Donald Turmp!)
My late parents visited China weeks before Tianamen Square. Things they brought as presents had the rare mark "Made in China". Now everything has it. Thanks Ronnie! (and Trump doesn't know it)
15
Remember, this is what "winning" looks like. Global decline. Weakened allies. Hostility against America. Loss of American jobs.
36
Given that Trump is a serious threat to both our national security and our economy, it time to declare WAR on Trump.
Wake up, America. And wake up that complicit Congress.
6
chinese tariffs will do enormous damage to us farmers GDP!
3
Trump threatens trade war. World shudders. Wait. Wait. Wait for it. Cue Trump's claim that he never said he would impose tariffs. World sighs in relief. Trump wins Nobel Prize in Economics. Ta-Da!
1
"Only a few months ago, the global economy appeared to be humming, with all major nations growing in unison. Now, the world’s fortunes are imperiled by an unfolding trade war."
The consequences of ill-intended, ill-educated, egoistic amateurs...
5
Far more important than tariffs on Chinese goods, whether individually justifiable or not, would be weaning us from our dependence on Chinese computer chips. One does not need to be a conspiracy theorist to believe it is likely that many of the chips which facilitate the operations of our military's command-and-control apparatus, our electric grid, our financial structure, and personal electronics from your cell phone to your car to "connected" home have chips with embedded code allowing the Chinese government to wreak absolute havoc on America, either during war or as blackmail to achieve its goals.
America should not be trading away its security so that large, especially internet-dependent, corporations can make even more profit. And America would be better off if its President spent less time playing with his mini-tweeter and more time studying important issues regarding our security. Instinct and intuition have their place, but only as tools predicated on actual knowledge and relevant experience.
3
As I feared, we are headed for another round of Freedom Fries. Surprising how quickly these things escalate, no? The good economy will buy some time and the president has only Fox News to answer to. But I wouldn't want to hold a town hall for the next couple years.
It's not all bad. Even as Trump divides Americans more each day, he'll be helping our European allies put their differences aside.
7
Seems to me the winner in all this move-fast-break-things chaos is Russia. Think about it: it's the economies and societies of the West that are being weakened, a goal Putin strives for every day of his sordid life. And who's causing it?
15
Trump is betting that his Tariff War will have a political payoff in November before the negative economic consequences bite. He's gambling with our economic and geostrategic security. Economies don't turn on a dime, lag effects and feedback loops take time. Politicians count on the people's myopia. While Trump falsely takes credit for current trend growth, he no doubt will blame the Democrats for negative effects of his reckless policies.
11
The upside of winning concessions is very low, while the downside of trade wars, broken alliances, lost jobs, inflation and the dismantling of the WTO and NAFTA are exceptionally high.
Everyday Trump looks more and more like a Russian agent intent on sabotaging western democratic economies while forging alliances with Russia, North Korea, and other dictatorships for personal gain.
31
if these countries are not willing to come to the table and renegotiate on the basis of fairness and reciprocity, then so be it. They have much more to lose than us. Finally, a U.S. president that stands up for American workers.
6
This country could benefit greatly from a period of greater personal frugality and austerity to weather the immediate negatives of the tariffs. The numerous payoffs of decreased consumerism would far outweigh the sacrifices.
3
And create a deep recession. Study your economics, gentlemen. Our economy is driven by consumer spending.
It doesn't seem clear that any of this sticks up for American workers. I know Trump says that, but he has a tendency to lie or just make stuff up.
I also wonder if you see massive tax breaks for the rich as standing up for American workers.
5
So far, all I've heard is hot air. Let's see if anything actually happens, and when it does then we can determine the consequences. All this parsing of every Trump threat and pronouncement is dereliction by the media, which should be reporting facts, not hot air.
7
No, it would be dereliction by the media if they didn't report all the possibilities.
1. The article showed plenty of things that had already happened; like higher commodity prices, reduced imports, changed supply chains, etc.
2. We already know what is going to happen. In 2002, George W. Bush imposes steel tariffs on steel products. This is what happened:
Steel Jobs:
2002 Steel Tariffs Imposed = 107,100
2007 Steel Tariffs Lifted = 97,300
That's 9,800 steel jobs last, a 9.2% drop in five years.
The last time we had a major trade war was in 1930, with the imposition of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which turned an ordinary recession into the Great Depression:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act
3. If you drop a mirror off a 10 story building, you know exactly what is going to happen long before it hits the bottom. Everybody but Donald Trump knows exactly what is going to happen with a trade war. And when the mirror breaks into 1,000,000 pieces, Donald will be blaming Obama, Clinton, Comey, and Mueller for the consequences.
8
I'm in total agreement. But that's not what the press is reporting, i.e. what trade wars have accomplished in the past. It's "Trump Imposes Tariffs!" (which, technically, he hasn't yet) and "Trump Talks Tough!" (which, so far, has produced nothing of value).
I'm only asking that the media talk about exactly what you said instead of quoting Trump and presenting him the way he wants to be presented. The media got him elected by taking him at his word -- isn't it time to stop that?
What happens when you have world's smartest and most respected Global Economists effectively relegated to the washroom? Disaster, one would expect.
If someone in the Republican Party hierarchy doesn't address the very obvious insanity we are witnessing, we can all kiss our prosperity/security/leadership goodbye.
27
I fear we have already kissed our leadership goodbye.
5
After 8 years of steady economic growth, here and abroad, American citizens placed a reactionary cult leader in the White House unreasonably looking for...'something' better.
Representatives of the elected majority then eliminate banking stability protections, further demonstrating that Republican institutions are unable to observe and learn from historical mistakes even in the best of times.
Tax changes have effectively codified stark economic inequalities. New protectionist actions seem to assure the imminent start of a near-term inflation spiral.
There is no reasoned hope that this toxic mix of a Tea Party executive and GOP Congress would be able or willing to undertake timely corrective actions during a recessed economy.
This may be how prosperity ends.
58
"After 8 years of steady economic growth, here and abroad, American citizens placed a reactionary cult leader in the White House unreasonably looking for...'something' better. "
Eight years of steady growth sounds good at first but when you consider that it took until late 2016 to get back to where the economy was in 2007 those years of growth don't sound too impressive. America lost nearly a full decade, and what growth it has seen since the end of the recovery has largely gone to people who are already very well off.
This notion that Americans didn't know what they were doing when they elected Trump has got to end. They knew exactly what they were doing: voting for the only guy willing to speak to the concerns of the average man and woman. That it was Trump of all people who was, at last, willing to do so is a sign that the American political system has become pretty much unworkable and worthless. That's not Trump's fault, it's a systemic flaw.
11
It took until 2016 to recover from the Great Recession that was largely caused by high risk speculative investments with little to no oversight by government agencies. Now, Republicans are dismantling the protections put in place during the Obama administration to prevent a repeat of those mistakes.
If Trump was really concerned about the average American, he would oppose the Republican's actions. But he hasn't, because his concern is largely hot air. If Trump understood anything about tariffs and trade wars, he would realize the impact they will have on a large number of his supporters. especially small specialty manufacturers and farmers. Again, his concern is largely hot air.
13
He may have spoken to the concerns of the average person but whether he actually serves their interest remains to be seen.
2
The most significant thing about Trump's noise and actions concerning trade and the environment is that it demonstrates how we have allowed our system of government, wisely established on a balance of powers among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches, as well as between states and the Federal government, to evolve into a strongly Presidential-dominant arrangement.
As with most forms of government, power in a one-person executive (President, monarch, dictator, Central Committee First Secretary, etc.) tends to increase when the occupant of that position is popular, essentially doing what the people desire. What that produces is the legitimization (through law, Constitutional change, public expectation, and acceptance) of power in the office itself and the bureaucracies which answer to it. When a corrupt, incompetent, or evil person comes to occupy that office, he or she then has a mantle of legitimacy with which to do serious damage.
Traditional liberals looked to the central government as a source of potential and actual good. Thus they have been willing and eager to invest power in that government and, especially, the President in order to accomplish certain goals, especially regarding the environment, health, civil liberties, and social policy. Meanwhile, with the exception of security issues, traditional conservatives have been much more cautious about Federal power. As it is, current liberals and conservatives bear scant resemblance to their predecessors.
6
When this Trump thing has completed its run (and that will happen, someday), those abroad will remember the impact he had on their individual and collective economies. Their memories will not be short. The United States of America, whatever is left of it, will pay dearly for the havoc being wreaked by he who calls himself POTUS.
53
and by those who enable and support him.
13
So much for Trump being a brilliant businessman. If Trump had great financial acumen, he would see the big picture, not just his immediate, myopic interests.
28
The trade imbalance hurts US middle class and low skilled workers. What part of that equation did you miss? Not interested in making rich people richer by growing the " global economy". With the POTUS all the way on these tarriffs as an offensive to get these " trading partners" to the negotiating table. After all , the countries who engage in a " trade war " with us have a lot more to lose than we do. If they will not come to the table and re-negotiate , let it be.
4
Because of Mr Trump’s tariffs, insults, threats and capricious decision making Canada and Mexico are already looking for and finding global sources/markets for trade.
What will happen to American farmers and factory workers, not to mention all the service industries that depend on consumers having cash to spend, when no country will buy what they are selling? Trade wars hurt everyone. Those who don’t learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat them.
8
The trading partners in NAFTA have long been at the negotiating table, and are still willing to negotiate.
What Canada, Mexico and other countries are not willing to do is to accept Trump's illegal tariffs on steel and aluminum (as an example), in his attempt to bully partners into the deals he wants. The 5-year "sunset clause" on NAFTA that he wants is unworkable and foolish.
If you were to view or listen to Canadian media, you would see that many Canadians are actively shopping for non-American goods and services, cancelling trips to the USA, etc. There's a big, new NBA = Not Buying American.
Other similarly affected countries are doing the same.
4
Why do we let the president impose tariffs or any other trade restriction for any reason? Isn’t this the job of Congress, you know, the collective representatives of the people??
31
Donald Trump needs to read “The Wealth of Nations” by Adam Smith.
Smith was opposed to the mercantilism of the 17th and 18th centuries. Mercantilists think that wealth should always flow to the homeland. This means you must export more than you import (when you import more, then there is a net negative flow of wealth out of the homeland). Trump says: “Put America First!”
Smith realized there is a better way. Each nation should produce and export those goods it is good at producing and import things other nations are good at producing. Instead of tariffs that restrict the importing of goods, free trade is better because everybody benefits.
When each nation puts itself first (“selfishness is a virtue,” Ayn Rand), you end up with a state of nature or a war of all against all.
Smith proposed a division of labor on an international scale.
King George III was a mercantilist. He taxed his colonies to pay for his wars against the hated French. This resulted in the American Revolution. Who knows what Trump’s mercantilism will produce?
29
How does this work when multinationals employ only workers in developing countries for stealth wages, William. And where is the hand of g-d when Putin is the wealthiest man alive, and eight others have as much as the bottom half of humanity? Smith would not recognize this world economy where the LIBOR is fixed, the average amount of time a stock is owned is 8 seconds, there are dark pools of anonymity and naked credit default swaps. Time to shelve that questionable influence.
https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2017-01-16/just-8-men-o...
12
Marx criticized capitalism because the wealthy oppress the poor (Marx talked about wage slaves, but laborers are not the only oppressed people in the world).
You are correct that laissez-faire capitalism is not a good thing. But you can regulate markets and still have free trade. The best thing for our economy would be to reject the efficient market hypothesis: markets are better able to allocate scarce resources than is government planning.
You can reject wealth inequality without rejecting free trade.
The very conservative German Chancellor Bismarck had it right when he said: "Either the government will enact social welfare programs or the socialists will take over the government."
The German SPD produced all kinds of social welfare programs 50 years before FDR came up with Social Security in the US.
The social democracies in Europe arose because of a strong labor movement. A strong labor movement never developed in the US because the Supreme Court ruled that corporations are persons. This means they have the right to property (to make money). Whenever there were strikes in the US, the police always sided with the owners and against the laborers. The result was that egregious maldistribution of wealth that existed in the Gilded Age.
Arguing that we can either have free trade and wealth inequality or we can have tariffs and a just society is simply nonsense. It called the fallacy of the excluded middle.
1
Fat chance you'll get Trump to read anything except the wrapper from his cheeseburger, if he is even interested in that! Anything of intellectual substance is well beyond his cognitive capability.
4
The Constitution, Section 8, authorizes Congress "to regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes. . ." CONGRESS, not the President, has the power to "regulate commerce."
But we the people have increasingly permitted the concentration of power in the executive branch and permitted Congress to increasingly abrogate its responsibility to govern over the last 100+ years, to the point that the NYT can run an article saying that "the Trump administration" has laid tariffs. In other words, the executive branch has, nibble by nibble, eaten Congress's power to govern trade, while our representatives sip juleps and phone the rich and powerful for money to get reelected.
This is not just a Trump problem. He is the problem run amok, the shocking extension of an otherwise shocking development in the "Imperial Presidency." We should be all over our representatives to step up and assert responsibility where the Constitution mandates it.
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Excellent analysis. Solving a problem requires understanding it first.
21
Someone should have mentioned it to Obama, Bush and Clinton.
Could not agree more. The only way to push back against "dictatorship creep" is by cutting back on the powers of the presidency, getting big money out of politics, and electing people to Congress who will act in the interests of the majority of people. Right now, the entire government works for the billionaires of this country, and no one else has much representation at all. Getting rid of Citizens United will help in restoring the balance of power.
It is insane that one person can hurt so many, so deeply -- and mostly for no reason whatsoever.
Trump doesn't know squat about global economics, he just likes wielding the almost unlimited power that he has and then watch people squirm. Meanwhile the silent, shameful GOP-controlled Congress stands by, mute. When the history of this time is written, I hope that they will take a equal measure of the blame!
76
Trump does not care about the American economy. He cares only about his wallet and how to pack the wallet with money from his hotels. And if Americans can no longer afford to stay (who would want to?) at a Trump hotel, there are plenty of rich Russians who can.
26
M.Trump plays fast and loose with the truth, with government rules and with personal mores. He cannot , however, use these fudging factors when it comes to international trade.Trade is based on contracts and laws and moves inexorably once the rules are set. There are no do overs or reinterpretations and the vague," We'll see what happens" does not apply.If he continues on the tariff war path ,he will live to regret it and so, of course, will we!
19
Let's face it: every president played fast and loose with the truth. They usually perfect the art in Congress.
1
I am far from an Economist, I really don't know the details of our trade imbalance, and so far, I haven't seen any hard numbers or facts about the real deal. But....all I've heard is that we have an extreme trade imbalance/deficit with China.
I have an example from this past week, I needed some casters. Going online, I can buy imported casters for about $4/ea. The American Made equivalent was between $12 and $24/ea. I am in American manufacturing, and I know what steel and parts costs are, plus fabrication and labor. I look at the Chinese made parts, there are 2 sets of caged roller bearings, one set of loose ball bearings, a urethane coated steel wheel, and the frame for it. We cannot buy the bearings alone in the US for $4. The material for the frame and wheel would be close to $4. The wheel, another $1 or $2. Plus fabrication time and assembly. I can easily see the $24, even $12 would be cutting it close. How do they do it for $4? And free shipping too. Are they subsidized by the Chinese government? Child workers? They don't pay their People?
Americans are really used to the Wal-Mart prices for throw away goods. I keep hearing that prices will go up, but if they care dumping their products on us to drive our industries under, it's something we need to do. After the poisoned dog food, toothpaste and many many substandard products, we can't let our industry go under.
7
We in my own view needed to address some of the issues which arise -mostly because of labor costs. And which arose over many years . But Trump's response is to do what he "feels' like doing or what will get press, rather than what will actually be in the long term benefit of the country.
He acting as an economic terrorist, who attacks on other counties economic stability if they do no immediately accede to his demands. ( To boot, his demands are sometimes unintelligible even in his native English). He bombs all the bridges because he doesn't like the direction of the traffic.
And he doesn't give fair warning to the industries in his own country who are supposedly being helped: many have been caught unable to afford materials planned for in the last year or two.
Our insane throwaway society: we then spend outrageous amounts for cleanup, a cost which is never folded into the retail price of good - which would give a more realist idea pf the true cost. Since we have been put on notice that China has been a major recipient of our trash -- and may start saying no more - we are in for it on both ends.
Some of the changes that come might end up being positive, but establishing a sort of world trade anarchy rather than attempting to negotiate changes, sounds like it is going to bring on very hard times.
3
Whether you like Trump or not, he's the only President that I've ever heard speak publicly about the unfair trade practices and tariffs of our allies and adversaries, namely China, and is doing something about it. In the short term there may be some pain, but it's best to do it now rather than continue to kick the can down the road.
Also, he's the only President I've heard who has publicly called out NATO members, Japan and South Korea, for not contributing the 2% GDP for their respective military, and in the case of Japan and South Korea they should be footing the bill for our military presence.
3
As should Europe's nations.
1
If the world economy grows at the expense of the American worker, what's in it for us? Oh sure, the richest Americans will be even richer, but as Trump has made it painfully obvious if we only think of our investors and never of our workers there will be consequences.
We will have full-bore fascism in less than a generation if we continue to put rich capitalists ahead of everyone else. There has to be some balance between labor and capital, and the citizens of the first world must come before the citizens of the third. If that doesn't happen then expect more President Trumps, or worse.
16
Trudeau should express sympathy to the American people. And then immediately order the RMCP and the Canadian Defense Ministry to take all steps necessary to prevent Russia from picking the next leader of Canada, as has happened in the USA.
The branch that epitomizes the fact that “protectionism is the progressivism of fools” explicitly rejects comparative advantage and asserts that American workers should not have to compete with workers in other countries. That would also mean that American firms would also be protected from competition in the domestic market. Senators Bernie Sanders and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) are examples of advocates for the “progressivism of fools” branch.
The other branch of protectionism focuses on what they perceive as unfair practices by other countries. In many cases, the “progressivism of fools” branch attempts to justify their proposals as retaliation to unfair practices by other countries, even if their arguments defy facts and logic. Many protectionists employ the tactics of both branches. President Trump is a prime example. The only objective of Trump tariffs is to transfer wealth to the employees and owners of favored domestic producers. That the costs and losses to the rest of Americans far exceeded the gains to the employees and owners of favored domestic producers is never a concern of the “progressivism of fools” branch..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164735
3
"The only objective of Trump tariffs is to transfer wealth to the employees and owners of favored domestic producers."
Right. Domestic workers and owners instead of international bankers and capitalists. Again, what's in it for ordinary Americans if some banker in London is made richer while the American worker is out of work?
The jig is up, man. Your kind had your fun, and now the party's over.
The US is not the only country with protectionists. Gandhi was a great statesman but a horrible economist. Just as the ignorant argue that American workers who earn $15 per hour should not have to compete with Chinese workers who make $2 per hour, Gandhi thought that Indian workers should not have to compete with American and European workers who have the benefit of modern machines. As a result, India adopted protectionism. In 1947, the per capita income of India was similar to those of countries such South Korea. By 1977, the per capita income and standard of living in South Korea was many times that of India. India has since largely abandoned protectionism and has benefited immensely from free trade. As Ricardo proved would be the case when he developed the concept of comparative advantage.
The worst form of protectionism comes in the form of quotas. Quotas are bilateral agreements, negotiated by governments which allocate shares of the market that thus restrict exports and imports. None of the higher prices on the restricted goods are remitted to governments as is the case with tariffs and border adjustment taxes. The losses to the consumers are allocated to the favored producers under a quota system. Prices are always higher and production is always lower under a quota regime than would be the case in a free market. Higher consumer prices leads to lower standards of living. Lower production always leads to less employment..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164735
The legitimacy of the USA and its moral authority has been shattered by this posturing. Business confidence will diminish, and, with it, new investment in the robust American markets. Specific industries will suffer, but I will enjoy less expensive lobster while visiting New England.
The real stakes may be forfeiting the critical role of the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world. Watch the feedback mechanisms as they play out.
Thanks to the Times for the reporting here.
36
How is our moral authority shattered by trying to stand for our interests in the face of very abuses at least by China.
Most likely fake news is circulating the web that Mr. Trump has invited Mr. Putin to visit him at The White House. It might help our state of affairs if the president were to be welcomed by the Russian leader, and the Nation were to have a joint address by President George Bush, Jr. and President Barack Obama.
We could use some clarification on the definition of a 'Trade War' and the possible impact it could have on the economy. Reaching out to We The People would show unity on the part of these public servants, and might prevent us from being less fragmented in this latest turmoil.
How come corporations are allowed to engage in global trade but people can't? It should be up to ME, not the FDA, whether I want to buy medication made in Italy in a laboratory owned by the same companies who own laboratories here in the US. And don't tell me there's no such thing - in the early 1990s there was a loophole created so people could buy AIDS medication that wasn't available in the US. The loophole covered fertility medication and millions of American women were able to buy fertility medication made in European labs owned by the same drug companies as the ones in the US for a fraction of the cost of the same medications made by the same drug companies in the US.
Until individual citizens are allowed to buy from all over the world, there's no such thing as "global trade." There's only corporate trade.
24
Perhaps our economy will grow and become much more self sufficient, while many areas around the world will either shrink or learn to give us a fair deal. That is exactly what the president promised, so as usual he is trying to deliver.
7
The economy is going to shrink. isolationist policies in teens of trade hamper growth.
14
The world is a bigger place than just the USA, my friend. Our neighbors to the north and south are bypassing our produce for one and rightly so. There are farmers all over the globe who produce and sadly ours will suffer. Careless words & deeds have consequences and consequences we shall all have.
15
The US economy is too developed to make low value (but necessary) goods here while paying the workers good, fair, livable wages and simultaneously keeping the product cheap enough for most of us to buy. The factories may come back here, but they'll be manned by robots. Not many good jobs there. There will be a few jobs for people who are already doing well; not laid off Joe from the plant.
2
"with all major nations growing in unison"
No, they were not. It was very uneven. Some nations are still staggering under the long Great Recession. All recovery was slow, far behind the norm, but they were not the same. Some still teeter on the edge of sliding back.
Meanwhile, a few charged on at rate the others never saw in decades, such as China.
Within countries, what recovery they did have was very uneven. Vast regions were left behind, and just did not get a recovery. They just crashed and stayed crashed.
The world economy is serving some, but not others. In China, it has not yet reached inland in places that resemble rural China of a century ago. In the US, we have hollowed out places and industries far below a century ago.
There is an economic problem that needed to be addressed. Now, is Trump addressing it? Do his actions help? No, and no. That is not the same as declaring it was all wonderful until Trump came along and threatened to wreck it all.
The big difference is that the failure ferments, and resentments too. That is how we are getting wild choices from voters. If the "solution" is to go back to the problem, and to pretend it was all great, then many voters are not going to stop their wild choices.
13
It's not just businesses in countries that pay tariffs, it's the people who buy the goods that they make that also pay the tariffs, and this leads to inflation, something that has been very much under control for the last ten years.
Inflation will lead to higher interest rates, and higher interest rates will affect the interest rates on home mortgages, and thus the housing market..
Mr. Trump was handed a very sound national economy when he took office. It continued to be strong. The stock market went up considerably on a wave of Trumpian euphoria.
But this may all start to unravel as a result of Mr. Trump's theory that a trade war is good for the United States. Unfortunately, what may eventually be good for some sectors of the economy in the long run will be immediately bad for others, as this article observes.
It's disturbing to see the national and global economies threatened with disruption this way.
19
"...many imports are components that are used to manufacture goods at American factories."
This may be too deep a concept for Trump.
First there is what he does, which is whatever pops into his head, always calls attention to himself.
Then the consequences, which he always has a way to blame on others.
29
We are probably doomed to behave erratically on the world stage for as long as we continue to have an antiquated and polarizing two-party political system. However, a ranked voting system would enable moderate centrists to viably compete in national elections.
15
I'm in favor of ranked choice voting, but Clinton was a moderate centrist and she lost.
I would like to say, "Father, forgive him for he knows not what he's doing", but he has corrupt intent.
33
IMO, a global economy is incompatible with sovereign nations. Nations have always controlled their own economies (a balance of business and labor and producers and consumers) through borders, trade, taxation, laws, etc. etc. In reality there is no 'free' trade and what we call capitalism today has very little in common with the classical definition of Adam Smith, even though it's proponents continue to describe it in those terms . There are only governments and the ever more powerful wealth, in fewer and fewer hands that tends to control them. That's why we are seeing the loss of workers rights. The multi-national corps, through the government that passes laws to do their bidding, are free to go anywhere in the world to obtain their labor supply, while labor is firmly rooted in place and subject to shortages of jobs. We need those tariffs to make the offshoring of jobs less attractive and products made in the USA more competitive.
9
The one wonders if the states of the USA actually comprise a united country.
The US can't go it it alone against China. We need their stuff, and they hold most of our debt.
That's why the TPP was so critical. It created a united market that had a chance to hold China's feet to the fire regarding patent infringement and intellectual property theft.
Now we've burned bridges with key allies in this bulwark against Chinese domination, and are helping to further open the North Korean market to them.
And meanwhile, they are anchoring themselves in Africa, a huge market and natural resource opportunity, while we pull up our drawbridge and hunker down in petulance.
They must be incredulous that the US is doing this. And laughing all the way to the bank.
55
The biggest problem with the TPP (negotiated privately/secretly, and written by corporate lawyers) was the creation of a conflict resolution tribunal, composed of corporate lawyers, that had authority OVER litigant nations, thus elevating corporations above the sovereignty of member nations. This was/is ludicrous, abhorrent and unacceptable, and explains why the terms and specifics of the agreement were kept from the public. The TPP COULD have been created fairly (hate to use that favorite word of the fake president), but never at the expense of sovereignty recognition. Transnational corporations really have no affiliations to any nation, just those with the best tax "deals".
5
Trump himself is a veteran of being too much in debt to be allowed to fail.
well-stated, @elizabeth a. but may i just add my 2 cents regarding china's patent infringement and intellectual property theft? such 'dirty' fighting techniques have always been employed ... the 'pilgrim fathers' used firewater, firearms, pest-infected blankets to decimate first americans; european colonialists hacked african freedom fighters to pieces, kept african dictators in place, established monocultures on the most fruitful soils for their own benefit, while modern-day oppressive contracts or biopiracy ... i guess i'll just stop here.
"Trade wars are fun, and easy to win."
Keep this quote (or approximation of it) in mind as this story continues to develop, America.
125
You are right and I'm being pedantic but the quote was actually...
"Trade wars are good, and easy to win"
My prayer is that Trump's ill-considered tariffs will affect enough of his base so that they reconsider their blind allegiance and help usher in a blue wave in the midterms. And that the Democrats can then grab the reins quickly enough to prevent a worldwide recession--or worse.
26
Steel, I don't think this will happen unless the Democrats find a way to reach the Trumpists. And they are very hard to reach.
15
I hope that you are right. However, the Democrats really don't understand the plight of the Middle Class Americans. The worse part is that they think that they do! This is why they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in November.
4
Middle Class Americans who voted Trump simply don’t understand the causes of their “plight”. Misdirected anger. It ain’t immigrants - it’s automation, unchecked corporations, unchecked banks, and money in politics. Even still, unemployment below 4%, thanks to Obama getting the train to full speed ahead when Trump took over. He’ll surely ruin the trajectory with this tariff sledgehammer. Our paychecks are small because wealth is increasingly concentrated into the hands of the wealthy; wealthy people like TRUMP who care nothing about the common man, and have never experienced what it’s like to BE one. The fox is now in the henhouse (our bank accounts). He is waving a feather of lower taxes to keep you tickled, while shoveling your hard-earned pay to the top.
19
Trump and the Republicans are putting all the pieces in place for the next global economic depression. Exacerbating income inequality; starting a trade war; running up massive deficits; ruining U.S. credit; deregulating Wall Street; undercutting the middle class; allowing our infrastructure to erode;
Progressives, get ready. The poo-poo WILL impact the impeller, and it will be time to seize power.
26
The sad part is that progressives are not really very good at seizing power. When they do, they are so split among themselves that they cannot govern effectively. If you want to see dithering and the soft-head approach to attempting to govern a city, take a Big Look at the City of Seattle! Progressives are afraid of their own shadows, they cannot govern a city, let alone a nation.
8
A pithy summary. Weren't we in pretty much the same place in 2008, after Bush 2 destroyed the US economy and made us a global pariah?
It took Obama two terms to repair the damage and put us back on track. Then what happened? American democracy gave us Dennis the Menace.
Let's face it: our politics are not just binary, but bipolar. American voters simply refuse to learn from experience, which condemns us to the same fate as Sisyphus until they do:
"The gods had condemned Sisyphus to ceaselessly rolling a rock to the top of a mountain, whence the stone would fall back of its own weight. They had thought with some reason that there is no more dreadful punishment than futile and hopeless labor." (Albert Camus)
5
Progressives have a hard enough time running academia, they're not quit smart enough to seize anything, except maybe their chests when Trump wins another 4 years.
1
Unfortunately, I really don’t think this is a “negotiating tactic” on the part of Trump. The man is a megalomaniac and a narcisist - his main fear is that he his actions have no effect and he is ignored. The fact that his actions are causing cascades of serious consequences will be hugely satisfying to him, regardless of the ultimate result of his actions. He will always be able to spin his policies in his own mind, and that is the only opinion that is important to him.
I think we are in for a long, rough ride.
And when it all goes belly up? He may well start a war with Korea or Iran, both to distract, and to further demonstrate his power and his relevance ....
71
Let's see, how does this help Putin and Trump?
If the American treasury is emptied thanks to the tax cuts and fewer taxes paid, then finally the 1% can get rid of those pesky welfare subsidies.
Still, this latest nutty thing the Trumps have done is going to help the world actually understand world trade, and maybe even figure out a way to have free trade without forcing people in the richest country be impoverished.
Of course, comes what may, the 1% are going to own the future, as they own the American Congress.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
11
I’d enjoy your explanation of how World Trade has “impoverished” America - given that its 5% of the world population but enjoys consuming 25% of the resources...and I’m assuming that the bulk of the resources America uses do not come from America
7
"Impoverishing the bottom 10% of Americans.."
There are many very poor Americans who have been left behind. In the large cities there is very little affordable housing.
The bottom 10% in America has been devastated by the movement of industry from America to China, Mexico, South Korea, Canada, etc. That is a fact.
It is why, ultimately, Trump got elected, as the left behind were tricked into thinking he would be able to something about that.
Don't think that the wealth of the top 10% gained from being part of the investor class is the same for all Americans.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
Trump is managing to blow up the gobal economy as well as ours. He really doesn't understand basic economics or the impact of emotional grievances based on minimal understanding of how trade deficits work.
The NYT has done an excellent job of explaining the dynamics and impacts of economic decisions based on faulty assumptions.
We can get lost on the weeds of who's going to suffer most, but consider an alternative explanation for what the president is doing.
Tyrants try to seize the excuse of any event considered a national emergency to consolidate power. I can certainly envision an economic crisis addressed not by economic solutions, but by military ones.
I urge anyone who has not yet read "On Tyrrany" by Timothy Snyder to get and read it now. its very short but very powerful.
Then stay alert because a crisis is looming in our future.
60
Just placed it on my Books to Buy list..thanx for the tip.
3
He knows exactly what he is doing. He is both successful and invulnerable. He is not above the law. He is the law.
1
thank you for the recommendation, @ChristineMcM. may i add mine: "how democracies die", by steven levitsky and daniel ziblatt.
1
Maybe the "global economy" isn't all it's cracked up to be.
3
And maybe you graduated from business school 40 years ago.
It isn't an option as to whether or not we join the global economy, it is the only way to survive!
2
1.5 to 2 billion USD a year saved for pulling our troops out of S. Korea alone. He may be just starting a roll here of withdrawing our paying for Europe's protection and other countries, (looking at you Canada). Many nations have been at our taxpayer's open trough for too long, since the end of WW2. Whatever it takes. We'll see. What if these tariffs actually work?
3
Whether we like Trump or not, we have to pray that the tariffs work.. Do not even know what "work" means. Supposed to be to reduce trade deficits, but now to not that but to curb China stealing (or Greedy US companies offering) technology. But I still don't know how Trump wants them to work... Hope it is not just "win midterms".
2
How do tariffs (creating a tariff war) have anything to do with exercising our responsibilities abroad, which protects us?
Let's even the trade balance -- if that is important -- by ordering less from foreign countries. Or let's keep going the way we are. Why risk damage to the world economy and our economy for a few, favored industries because Trump made campaign promises. He made a lot of contradictory promises.
He's had success in putting his brand on development in real estate. Somehow he is President of the United States, to my ultimate embarrassment. Or let him blow up the economy and get rid of him the sooner the better.
2
This is a complex situation. It seems to me that complexity is one thing that eludes President Trump. I do not post this as a final response. It is only a starting point. That said, the Washington Post reported: "Trump’s claims of the U.S. paying a disproportionate share, or “a lion’s share," (of NATO costs) are wildly exaggerated. . . . the formula for calculating the different shares is reasonable." The paper goes on to concluded: "It’s certainly false to say that most of the other NATO members pay “virtually nothing." As to looking at Canada, good. You may notice that more than 40,000 Canadian fought in Afghanistan side by side with the U.S. A costly move in both Canadian lives and money.
3
Sadly, this news will come as music to the disrupter in chief's ears. But to Republicans? How do they justify to their communities, to their children, propping up and continuing to empower such a global menace? Do these Republican individuals have any idea of the misery their choices have already caused; misery that will come back on them ten fold to haunt them for the rest of their lives?
29
The trade tariff irony, is that non-tariff trade diplomacy was an innovation of the U.S. government that has stood for decades until Mr. Trump was elected president. The theory of trade was well discussed in opinion pieces and comments by Paul Krugman: developed countries in the western tradition are better-off by trading goods and services that each state has a natural or cost-efficient advantage - provided that the rule of law and anti-dumping rules are closely monitored and arrested. In the case of Wisconsin milk producers over-supply we see the disasterous problems that arise when surplus milk is dumped on Canadian markets - forcing prices downward and producers out of business. The benefits of supply-management in the NAFTA auto sector have led to less costly vehicles available for sale. The auto sector is transforming product from ICE to EV and supply-management, as well as subsidies, are strategic programs to enable a constructive transition toward a major reduction in transportation carbon and particulate emissions. The challenge of NAFTA trade discussions is focused on the "gross trade" value v. "value-add trade" amount. Canadian made vehicles are mostly fabricated with U.S. parts and sub-assemblies. "It would be a tariff paid by American consumers who buy cars made mostly from American parts by American companies,” and that fact is lost in the nativist rhetoric of this maverick dealmaker President. https://apma.ca/north-american-auto-industry-knows-no-borders/
11
"...we see the disasterous problems that arise when surplus milk is dumped on Canadian markets - forcing prices downward and producers out of business."
How is this any different from products made cheaper in China being "dumped" in the US and putting US based manufacturers out of business? What you call "anti-dumping rules" is essentially the same thing as tariffs - they both result in higher, less competitive prices on imports designed to protect a native industry.
2
President Trump has numerous Federal IRS complaints, and four bankruptcies.
What could go wrong with his trade war?
41
Six bankruptcies, but who's counting.
You can be sure of one thing: Somehow the Trumps are making money from this turmoil.
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Ivanka has gotten several Trademarks from China. Yes the grifter family is making money from the turmoil!
2
The day Nixon put an end to Bretton Woods these times became inevitable.
This Canadian understands that an economic war will destroy our economy. I don't know if this is a good thing or a bad thing. Maybe starting from scratch will allow for a 21st century economy that serves us rather than an American economy that you serve.
8
Oh, yes, like the mythological Phoenix rising from the ashes. In the meantime everyone starves to death.
1
Kithara,
The Irish Starvation saw one million Irish peasants die of starvation and two million other shipped off to the new urban hellholes of the industrial revolution specifically because the economic system of Ireland was food export and when late blight hit potatoes food export boomed. Incidentally the American economic system we call neoliberalism is the same system that made Ireland's landlords get rid of three million peasants There was no shortage of food during the potato starvation in fact the food export economy boomed.
The economic system we now have was begun as Nixon ended Bretton Woods 1971-1973. The Nixonian system ran its course and things are now different. It isn't mythological it is historical and allegorical.
It would be truly refreshing, if not helpful, to know exactly what stocks Trump has in his portfolio so we could reasonably judge which policies he’s following are directly enriching him and his family, and fully understand why he does what he does.
It’s incredibly messed up that Republicans have decided that financial conflicts of interest that applied to all American politicians prior to 2016 no longer apply to Trump (or Pruitt, or Pence, etc...)
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The one percent may make out in the coming recession, but a lot of almost middle class consumers will cut out a great deal of spending, mostly to be able to purchase needed goods, which will not go down in price. Therefore no one will win on this one, no one. Please think about that, for a change, Trump followers - most of whom are not the one percent. Better get off your duffs and learn to make bread.
24
I think what's clear here is Donald Trump's determined and absolute de-stabilization of Western economies.
The beneficiary of such malice would be Russia. There must be serious money behind Trump's dog-like devotion to Comrade Vladimir Putin. The provenance of such slavish behavior most likely can be laid to the (now) American president's indebtedness to Russian financial interests, either clean or dirty; either legal or otherwise.
The American Congress looks on and says nothing and does less. The 63-millions whom Trump can thank for his unlikely position at the pinnacle of American government will find no return on their emotional investment. They, along with a great many Americans--and Canadians and Mexicans--will perhaps soon find themselves in dire financial straits, courtesy of the man who seduced them with "make America great again" under the thin and tattered banner of white nationalism.
There's a serious cost to hate. The world, and especially Americans who adore their president, are about to discover this fact and find it exceedingly inconvenient.
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@Sox -- world nations are wise to fight fire with fire. Given the president's history of bankruptcies, lawsuits, casino failures and tax evasion he's absolutely the last person on the planet to counsel other countries about how to protect their economies. If he had any business acumen at all he wouldn't pick fights tariff fights and then watch the world's trading system crash and burn.
3
Trump is using the superstructure of the American economy to deflect away from the Russian conspiracy investigation, and the result that will reveal that the Russians hacked and influenced the 2016 election in Trump's favor.
The world economic system will suffer as the Russians play their power games through the mind of Trump, where they have socialized his way of response.
The world helped America develop into a global power after WW2, and as a resistance to the Russian war machine
that was threatening Europe and the world.
Trump is now rejecting its Allies in favor of Russia,
and possibly a new world order with Russia, as Trump unwittingly said that we have a world to "run".
Germany has said that Europe will develop independently from what is happening in America, and this break will be long lasting, and will damage the infrastructure of economic development in America.
The manufacture of this conflict is exactly what Putin wants as his strategy to dismantle the influence and power of America - and Trump is implementing Putin's objectives.
Trump's use of tariffs is anti-American.
PS. The abuse of children and families coming to America
for safety and security is a very brutal deflection tactic,
and a racist policy that Sessions implemented.
Lets pray that the Mueller Russian conspiracy investigation will solve America's political problem of white nationalism, that is doing global damage and to America itself.
60
Trump and his cronies seem to spent all their time trying to find nasty things to do to people just to deflect away from the Russian conspiracy investigation.
This is the year to solve this political problem of white nationalism with the November 2018 elections, and with the Mueller investigation reports being published.
In America the law always wins.
3
Just as the globe had finally emerged from the horror show inflicted upon all of us by Bush II and the Republicans who decided that deregulation was a great idea for financial institutions, along comes know-nothing Trump and his know-nothing economic advisors who've decided to learn on the job that no good typically comes from trade wars.
Come on. How hard is it to listen for 15 minutes to top-flight economists like Paul Krugman to learn the benefits of avoiding tariffs? If Nobel Laureate Krugman is too left-wing for you, how hard is it to listen for 15 minutes to top-flight Republican economists who have been arguing as strenuously as Krugmen has against trade wars?
As we have been rapidly finding out from the first agonizing 500+ days of Trump's "presidency," the United States has a fundamental problem with its constitutional structure. We should not be in a situation where someone sitting in the Oval Office can wreak havoc on the world economy without any effective checks and balances.
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Those deregulations of banks that did such harm to us and were done away with under President Obama? They're coming back, thanks to Trump and his grifter administration. Let's see how many ways our financial institutions will find to fleece us again. Probably a good time to start doing business with credit unions; they seem to be the safest of them all. Might also be helpful to let the Republican Congress what you're doing and why you're doing it. It's way past time to start taking real action and speaking as loudly as we can; these people can't pretend to be deaf forever.
3
I can't imagine the world taking kindly to America once again being the cause of an economic emergency. I not only fear what Trump is doing (he considers it leverage...it's really transparent idiocy), but the very long range effect of American corruption.
2
@ALP: yesterday, a comment under another NYT article made me aware of what "checks and balances" have become - namely the checks the [hyper]rich cash + the balances of their accounts :-) ... and pence reminded evangelicals the other day that djt's first 500 days in office have been "500 days of promises made and promises kept". the major questions to always ask are 1) cui bono = who benefits from the way things are? and 2) do folks who SAY they care [e.g. about america] really DO care [e.g. about america?]
1
Trump is just showing what governing by slogans and tough talk without seriously considering real risks can produce, unknown consequences. He thinks he’s going to intimidate the rest of the countries in the world to abandon tariffs. He expects the consequences to be limited and easily controlled. Everybody will see things the way he does and the problem solved, with he the heroic leader. But our only experience with trade wars has been reduced economic expansion. The impact could be a recession from clobbering demand due to prices driven up by the tariffs.
Some steel products sold by domestic manufacturers have risen in prices much higher because the tariffs drove up the foreign competitors costs and gave them an opportunity to make customers pay more. Free money for the sellers but the buyers are losing their cash for other uses. This effect does ripple through an economy. Trump never thinks about things with careful consideration. His brashness is from a lack of understanding not bold courage.
26
President Trump says aloud what the rest of the world already knows. For 50 years the US has been carrying the economic and military burdens of the socialist west. Guess what... the free ride is over..
Now that we have their attention the U S can negotiate a real free trade agreement that puts America First. This is the beginning and the end will be a real free trade deal. No country, except the U S would tolerate the current one sided trade deficit of 600 Billion and the export of millions of US jobs
In a few months this will be another Win for the US..... again...
6
Presidents do not manage our economy nor the economies affected by it. People blame them and praise them for bad and good economic performance but what they can do to affect economies is indirectly changing small factors. It’s the day to day decisions of billions of people and hundreds of millions of independent institutions that actually determine what happens. Trump cannot appreciate this reality because he is too lazy to do the work needed to understand.
16
"For 50 years the US has been carrying the economic and military burdens of the socialist west."
No you have not. That is a meaningless rightwing talking point that has no real world application beyond working up Trump's easily influenced base.
19
Most of the deficit-building military buildup has been of our own making. It wasn't our western allies that forced us to invade Iraq. In fact, Tony Blair was ousted because be stood by Bush during the run-up to the invasion.
And they aren't forcing us to stay in Afghanistan, either, the longest and most costly war in American history.
And if you want to assign blame for the loss of manufacturing to China, try looking in the mirror. You and every other American loved your $10 toasters and $1 tube socks piled high at Walmart. Blowing up the global economy isn't going to bring the factories back.
8
Finally, we have a president with the guts to disrupt the economy and wreak havoc.
Apparently, part of the Republican recipe for Making America Great Again is to resurrect Smoot-Hawley. Who knew?
13
Trump's secret agenda is to Make Russia Great Again.
3
It seems that history is repeating itself. I’d not heard of the Smoot-Hawley Act prior to this and decided to inform myself. It is eye-opening and the impact this act had is quite worrisome.
It was a piece of U.S. legislation raising import duties to protect American businesses and farmers who were struggling with increased competition and declining prices from over-production post WWI. Once other sectors caught wind of these changes, a large outcry to increase tariffs in other economic sectors followed. President Hoover signed the bill despite a petition signed by more than 1,028 economists urging him to veto it. Henry Ford tried to convince Hoover to veto the bill, calling it "an economic stupidity." J. P. Morgan’s chief executive Thomas W. Lamont said he "almost went down on [his] knees to beg Herbert Hoover to veto the asinine Hawley-Smoot tariff." Hoover opposed the bill and called it "vicious, extortionate, and obnoxious" because he felt it would undermine the commitment he had pledged to international cooperation. However, in spite of his opposition, Hoover yielded to influence from his own party and business leaders and signed the bill. Hoover's fears were well founded. Canada and other countries raised their own tariffs in retaliation after the bill had become law.
Continued below:
2
The increase in this tariff added economic strain to countries during the Great Depression. As a result, banks in foreign countries began to fail and international trade declined drastically, resulting in a world trade decline of 66% between 1929 and 1934.In order to decrease the high tariffs imposed, President Roosevelt passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act in 1934. The United States went on to regain the confidence of foreign countries by encouraging international trade and supporting the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).I gleaned this information from ‘Investopedia’; (wholly owned by IAC (NASDAQ: IAC), Investopedia is the largest financial education website in the world) and from Wikipedia.
He is the president of America. He wants to make America great again. But the tariffs he imposed on other countries is so ridiculous.
The character of a businessman makes him only concern the profit nearby. Without the help from allies, the road in front of him will be full of obstacles.
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Anyone who has followed Trumps career as a business man knows his methods and attitudes. He is tough to the point of being brutal with those who oppose him. His trade proposals may be hard to accept by the worlds economies and companies here at home, but adjustments can and will be made. The facts are that we have hundred billion dollar trade deficit with China along with currency manipulation and technology theft, not including other countries with similar issues that hurt the US. Furthermore China’s 10-50-100 year economic plan is only the beginning of the US becoming a second rate economic player. Trumps plan to keep America a prime player in the future and help American workers may not be clear yet but if it works he will go down as a visionary.
3
So why is he levying tariffs on Canada with which the US has a trade surplus? What does this have to do with China?
35
Funny, in the 80’s people were saying exactly the same things about Japan. Why do you think emerging economies do better (for some time) than developed economies? A hint : Competitiveness is a function of capital + labor cost + agency cost. Emerging economies attract foreign capital and have VERY low labor cost and almost no agency cost. The real question is : how long you think this can last? Not long. Three generations in Japan. Now that japan is a developed economy it can buy US stuff such as AWS, NetFlix, Apple, etc. Fifty years ago they couldn’t buy anything from the US. That’s why you want to help and lead the global economy. Fortress America is an illusion.
10
Anyone who has followed Trump's career knows he's a con artist who went bankrupt multiple times.
6
What has the working class gained from tax cuts if all of that additional money is going to be used to pay a higher cost of living? "Buy America" is a nice sentiment but consumers shouldn't be obligated to sign off on it at augmented and unreasonable cost.
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Actually we must boycott America, specifically cars. Put Ford, Chrysler and General Motors out of business. And the Wisconsin dairy industry.
3
As if consumers have any opportunity to "sign off" on the fake president's unilateral actions!
VOTE in November. Remove the republicans from office.
3
This wonderful article explains the immense complexity and jigsaw puzzle -- the world trade -- to a person like me whose trading experience is limited to buying weekly supplies from grocery stores, department stores, amazon.com, and the local gas station.
Newton's third law of motion, of action and equal and opposite reaction, is as applicable in physics as in world trade.
To whatever Trump does to adjust trade imbalance, there would be an immediate equal and opposite response from our trading partners.
I am not sure whether Mr. Trump, not known for deep thinking, foresaw what chaos his simplistic idea of "making America great again" would entail. To implement his ideas of greatness he has hired not brilliant minds but intellectual pygmies.
At the end of Trump’s term -- of four, or, God forbid, eight years -- Trump is likely to leave America, not great, but a smaller nation brimming with inequality, discontent, and global derision.
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We’ve been a nation divided for 30 or 230 years, depending how you look at it. We’ve been fooling ourselves about our greatness since we stopped putting people on the moon, since Watergate, since Reagan kicked off his campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi.
3
Ahh the old "it's soooo complex" approach by pediatric diversity specialist. We are witnessing the "uncomplicated" approach - you know - the one that actually takes action.
Intellectual pygmies............perfect!
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“...not only if the United States took action, but especially if other countries were to retaliate, notably those who would be most affected, such as Canada, Europe and Germany.”
Thank you, Ms. Lagarde, for putting the shoe on the other foot. Too bad that while she was at it, she didn’t put it where it really belongs: on the foot of China. The countries she did name will be very happy for the US to fight that battle with China for them, and would only be completely happy if at the same time they could continue their own self-serving protectionist (and in the case of Germany, nearly mercantilist) trade policies.
3
You know it alls keep whining about trade deficits and unfairness. With Canada you have a trade surplus. Just how much more of a surplus do you need for it to be fair? Feel free to ignore all facts if you reply. We're used to that by now.
3
It's hard to imagine how Trump could do more harm to the nation in more ways then if he was actually on Putin's payroll, which we may find out he actually is
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He most decidedly is. it's a reverse payroll--he's paying off his debts.
5
TЯump supporters are still imagining how Trump is Making America Great Again. They can't imagine that Trump is doing Putin's bidding willingly or unwittingly. What facts will dissuade them? It's hard to imagine what should be done with people who chose to live in Trump's alternate reality. We must fight them to retain our freedom, but how do we win the peace after they lose in 2018 and 2020?
Somebody has got to stand up to this man. It is not only our nation but also the globe at large which are journeying together on an ominous road. There is something fundamentally amiss, or more to the point out of whack, with Trump's mind. He has clearly descended into some sort of psychological state that is beyond less threatening neuroses. He has lost total control of himself. It has been bad enough that he embraces dictators at the expense of our international neighbors and allies. But now...our domestic and global economy because of one person, him, is threatened.
I call on Congress - NOW - to put aside self-seeking politics and power to rein this man in. In lieu of a widespread revolt against this president, the Congress MUST protect all their constituents..Blue, Red, and Purple. We the public will blame them as well as Trump if this corrupt and unstable trajectory is not halted but instead continues. Take note, McConnell, Ryan, and fellow Republicans.
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Do you blame the wild lion or more appropriately the negligent zoo keeper?
1
@kathy lollock: maybe, instead of waiting and waiting and waiting for your congresspeople to get moving, y'all should take to the streets, while the top-down revolution seems intent on fixing things which weren't all that broken ... i know, i'm suggesting the almost impossible. [remember how the anti-vietnam movement once mobilized more than just masses in america?]
1
Great analysis by all; it shows the global trade dependencies, of which most of us are aware, but trumpkins are gamed into believing that tariffs are an easy win by Trump through his emotive rants against rational trade negotiations.
One of the things that came out in this sobering report is the example of Mexico's U.S. apple imports. Mexico has slapped a tariff on U.S. apples to counter the U.S. tariffs on its Mexican imports. The fantasyland that trumpkins are living in has them imagine that Mexico will simply drop the tariffs on our apples, giving Trump an easy "win". It's not so simple-minded. Now magnify this problem exponentially with Trump's inefficient bilateral approach.
Trump does not know what he is doing. Furthermore, Trump cannot install capable trade experts into his government because of Trump's recalcitrant personality. This all leads to the chaos that we now see.
If the Trump government responded to an intelligent analysis of global trade, then we'd have a set of validated trade conditions in a coherent trade policy. This smacks of "elitism" to trumpkins; they like Trump's shotgun approach. It's really a grenade approach. Trump just destroys existing trade control mechanisms to please his followers and lets someone else fix his disaster.
Trumpkins, and the rest of us, take it on the chin with higher prices, market losses and job losses that are a tax on us to support Trump's wild trade actions, that are no coherent policy.
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If the basis for failure is when expansion slows or ceases, then I guess the universe is a failure as well since scientists say its expansion is slowing down too. Maybe it’s for the best as then there’s less for us to know nothing about. Look at it as newfound knowledge then and call that a good thing. Whatever happens happens, judging it only makes any pain from it more painful. I doubt if Duisburg, Germany will be a ghost town tomorrow because of these tariffs, like Fontana, California became after Kaiser steel closed its mill there and sold and shipped it lot, stock and barrel to China as well as the jobs that went with it.
2
Why would a US president be so driven to impose massive chaos to the international trading system? His promise to his base of voters to put America First has gotten off track and become America Alone. The thing is: his base do not understand trade but they do understand the price of beer and gas. When those prices go up Trump will blame the Canadians, Mexicans, Chinese and anyone else he can think of.
The base probably do not read the New York Times but some might read their local newspapers, or more likely watch TV, and until they do they will be largely unaware of what Trumps screwball decisions are doing to the American economy.
When people vote in November they need to think about what and who they are voting for. How has their healthcare been impacted? Have they seen lower income and state taxes? Have prices gone up?
People also need to remember that the increase in jobs and the economy in the US was brought about by policy from the Obama Administration and is continuing to benefit America.
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Why so driven?
He states: “America first” but he means “l’etat c’est Moi.”
So: Trump first.
1
Remember how the American furniture and textile industries were offshored in the 90's and now they are a shadow of their former selves?
Imagine that but this time for Intel and Boeing.
127
It's all about making larger profits, and the wages are lower in other countries where there are large groups of people who are poor, and will work for a few dollars an
hour.
Once again it's all about greed and profits.
12
The real story is why isn't our "checks and balances" Congress fighting this President as he single handedly destroys all our long revered trade policies with allies?
McConnell is kept congress in session this summer (to hide from their constituents' wrath)
so get working Senators!
228
The same party that in the 80’s gave tax write off to companies to move overseas.
25
McConnell was effectively bribed into complicity by having his WIFE being "given" a cabinet seat. Don't expect anything except rubber-stamping from this corrupt thing. Remember his Constitutional treachery re the Merrick Garland SCOTUS nomination.
10
McConnell has canceled the summer recess to make it harder for Democrats to compete in the mid-terms.
You really have to wonder how and why it is that he and his party decided to hate America so much.
3
When will the Republicans in Congress grow a spine and recognize that Trump is hurting America?
The primary season is almost over. For those Republicans now moving on to a general election, there is no longer a primary threat from the far right. There is no way that Trump's base will ever vote for a Democrat. So their seat is as safe as it could ever be.
The GOP needs to conclude that Trump has outlived his usefulness and stand up and tell the truth; Trump is wrong on trade. (Among many other policies, but let's start with one that maybe we can all agree upon.)
A Global Trade War has massive repercussions. Trump's unilateral actions and the resulting retaliation will hurt rich and poor alike. Sad to say, Trump is simply not intelligent enough to grasp this.
I can imagine other countries working diligently to find alternatives to buying anything from the U.S.
Our allies no longer trust us; it is likely if they uncover intelligence of an imminent threat to America, they will withhold that information lest it be revealed to an unstable *president who might expose the secret source of the intelligence or take rash and impulsive actions.
The Chinese fund our debt. They are the largest buyers of U.S. Treasury obligations. What are the implications should they decide that the debts of the American government are not worth the risk?
We are entering dangerous and uncharted territory. I worry about America's future.
431
Don't ask about the Republican Congress. With "leaders" like Ryan and McConnell what can you expect.
4
I have been worried for quite a while, then I realized that the world would be better off if we were neutered. They must build a " wall" around us the way a human lung walls off the tuberculosis bacteria. We are truly a world society pathogen.
Europe, Japan, China unite!
3
The GOP is doing nothing because they like what Trump is doing. Trump is carrying out big changes that they have sought for decades.
4
Perhaps, the plan by the powers that be IS to have trade wars, uncertainty and disruption in the global market.
There are many players/governments out there that make far more profits out there from such upheaval, as well as distracting from what they are doing otherwise.
Who know what backs deals this President (and his family) have done, as he continues to thumb his nose at the emoluments clause in the Constitution.
We may never know.
155
Trade disputes are part of the global competition game. Sometimes you need to shake things up, I believe in free trade and unfortunately some nations are not playing fairly. Trump is changing the rules because many Americans want them changed to benefit a domestic US market vs. the globalist view. Is that good for you? Then you'll love it, if it's bad for you, you'll hate it. Time will tell if he's the negotiating genius he claims to be or something else.
5
The problem with your argument is that Trump is not “changing the rules”, he’s disregarded them.
Trade disputes require shared mechanisms to come to an agreed upon solution.
Merely claiming that you “win” because you said so doesn’t resolve anything
10
Shaking things up is one thing. Burning down the house is arson.
16
Trump and his trade war advisers have come to the conclusion the world is going to bend to their demands. His goal is for the US to control how the world trade system works. Certainly Trump is trying to take corrupt advantage of this. At this point it is far from clear what the outcome will be. Trump though has launched into this with an ignorance that is truly shocking. It is said that he wants to play the madman card to intimidate his rivals. The citizens in the US have almost zero control over his machinations and the Republicans are afraid to offend him.
45
This is exactly what Trump wants, to create fear. If the US and the world goes into another recession Trump's billionaire friends will buy up businesses and housing for 30-40% on the dollar, just like in the 2008 recession. Remember the 2008 recession started under George Bush and was caused by the banks, mortgage companies and Wall Street!
281
And Obama did not prosecute. Bush and Obama birds of a feather though different in style.
2
Donald Trump and his cabinet of oligarchs and oligarch's henchmen in the cabinet and in Congress spent their first year in office rolling back as many of the policies, regulations, laws, and presidential decrees as they legally could, at times with the help of Blue Dog Democrats who are now getting help from the Kochs, to ensure they keep their seats in November. This includes rolling back labor regulations, environmental regulations, medical regulations, banking regulations - all mostly hurting the average American, whether it is the safety of drinking water, banks, food, their tips at work, and everything else in between. What Trump did while we weren't looking https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2PQ
The money faucet has been turned on full blast in reverse osmosis, creating a huge deficit that the rich, legally, won't be responsible for.
How to pay for all this? In part, the deficit will get cosmetic camouflage colors via a $15 billion rescission of, you guessed it, healthcare for the elderly and disabled, food stamps, and other items from America's meager social contract with itself. That won't be enough.
The other way some of this will be paid for is through blackmailing our partners for a greater share of trade, with what surely will be some great deals for Trump and his family thrown in. That's how Trump works.
Who among Democrats is visible and audible enough to let our partners know that when Trump goes, we will fix things?
---
Strange resistance https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2Sm
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Democrats, even including those who can't refrain from taking campaign money from bankers and big-shot CEOs, have already proven that they don't treat the economy as a slush-fund for the rich. Our (trading) partners already know this; it's our own intellectually lazy citizens who need to be made aware of it. Let's propose increasing taxes for the affluent and having them pay for the assistance programs that allow the indigent to survive and to aspire to a better life. In so doing, leave the working class to pay for themselves and, in so doing, offer them a simple and coherent reason to vote Democratic.
8
Stu,
Democrats made the Bush tax cuts permanent.
Nuff said about people not understanding what lawmakers do or who they work for.
2
Stu,
To relegate the social safety net to those you deem "indigent" reveals a fundamental lack of understanding of what's happened to the middle and working classes since the start of the Great Recession. For more than a third of this nation, the Great Recession is ongoing. For more than a third of this nation, life as they knew it before 2008, has radically changed forever.
The gig economy has replaced the good jobs we used to have, not only in the US, but also Europe. Those new jobs we've added are low-paying jobs. The safety net is not only needed by now older Americans who've paid into the system their entire working lives, but their aging children and their newly graduated children who, not too long from now, will have to grapple with a world without work.
What you call indigence will become the new norm, unless we make changes to match the economy we now have, and the economy that is coming.
Voters have a much greater sense of the bait and switch games in our politics. Trump knew this and lied through his teeth. Democrats need to change their game. Voters stopped showing up at the ballot because they've sensed that they were left behind.
---
95 million losers
https://www.rimaregas.com/2017/01/02/new-year-ruminations-lucky-among-95...
5
We had begun to forget that one human being can have such a colossal and disastrous impact on billions of them.
But of course one doesn't have to go back all that far in history to be reminded that they can.
633
Though I assume you're referring to Donald J. Trump, I'm not at all sure he's a member of the human race. In any case, I've yet to find convincing evidence of his humanity.
44
Didn't Bill Maher say Trump is a cross between a human and an orangutan?
Ah, but this human being has many sycophants and enablers in the administration and congress. Plus, the ruler of a foreign power pulling his strings.
2
Trump’s going with his gut feeling and possibly with input from Putin is apparently not considering the consequences. It sure seems like the experts are predicting potentially disatorous results of Trump’s tariff approach.
The issues of trade with China are quite complex. We should have a policy that does not “throw the baby out with the bath water”.
37
Obama played multidimensional chess to plan strategy and actions
Trump plays checker.
One move.
Can't think beyond next Fox News show.
11
Ah, but if we could only throw the baby out. Maybe if the Democrats find some guts they can gain control of at least one house of congress and find a few remaining patriotic helpers across the aisle who will take away some of the baby's toys.
5
The baby went flying with the bath water when Trump pulled out of TPP.
6
Prices will rise and hit the middle class most. The 25-50% washing machine tariffs that his Administration has put in place last year is a case in point. Washer prices to consumers are up by 17% vs last year. A few hundred jobs have been created in new tax-exempt assembly plants in the South. It would be interesting to learn what the running cost per newly created job amounts to. And when calculating this, please also add the tax-payer subsidies for the new assembly plants into the calculation...
169
Indeed and I think this is still true:
U.S. companies get billions in taxpayer subsidies to spur exports, but fail to pay taxes on billions in offshore profits.
https://www.watchdog.org/national/companies-receiving-taxpayer-backed-su...
4
Get ready for another Great Depression. Well, at least for the poor and Middle Class.
467
We are already on that path. This unemployment figure that comes out every month, it means people with two jobs have now found their third one to keep up with living expenses.
12
My parents were products of the first Great Depression and while flawed it many ways, they appreciated what they had and took little for granted. Great Generations only become great due to their response to the circumstances that made them be great, nobody’s born great like some would like us to believe. As far as the wealthy, they die like all the rest of us despite being all the public talks about. Frankly I wish the Times would put their obituaries on the back page like everybody else rather than the front like I’m supposed to care.
6
And what ended the Great Depression? War.
5
Another example: Maine exports a huge quantity of lobsters to China, and lobsters are the major export. China's imposed a 25% tariff, in retaliation to Trump's actions. The only good side is that Maine's entire congressional delegation is united in opposing Trump's action: Maybe we will achieve more bipartisan resistance!
375
Truly amazing that Sen. Collins and Rep. Poliquin actually have the spine to stand against this. If only they could show similar courage and speak out against The Trump Show - their congressional seats are safe; District 2 will never elect a liberal.
5
Maybe Maine should try electing Democrats. Susan Collins might be as moderate as Republicans come, but so far she's just been another rubber stamp for DJT's dangerous economic policies. And so much for the promise she got from McConnell to fix healthcare.
16
Hoping it's at least a win for lobsters.
2
And here I was under the impression that “trade wars are easy to win.”
If President Bone Spurs hadn’t dodged the draft, then perhaps he would understand that, in war, no one wins.
697
Indeed. And where did the authors get this claim that "The Trump administration portrays its confrontational stance as a means of forcing multinational companies to bring factory production back to American shores"???
2
There's a little part of me that's ecstatic that this is happening, because of the classic "I told you so" moment.
199
Yes. The sad thing is that for him to “go down” - the whole world has to suffer first!
10
That taunt only works if the intended targets acknowledge it, which of course they won't. The flimflam man will offer lots of alternatives for blame, including "unpatriotic" liberals", and his minions will drink them up.
That leaves the taunt bouncing around in the echo chamber of the already like-minded, where it just sounds like empty boasting.
Is that what ecstasy looks like?
12
It's a classic "I told you so" moment if his voters and republican voters in general are substantially hit in the wallet/pocket book prior to the elections in November of this year. Otherwise, it's "voters wait until 2020" and who knows how much more damage trump and the repubs can do before then.
6
Let’s FINALLY call Donald J Trump what he truly is:
An ANARCHIST.
He seeks to disrupt & destroy Democracy, freedoms, economies, and the world order.
While the republicans stand aside doing nothing. This won’t play out nicely.
Putin won.
1071
Not certain Trump obeys to any particular ideology beyond satisfying his ego and family enrichment. His admiration for totalitarian leaders and the nationalist nature of the republican voter base that has blindly embraced him drive america toward fascism.
3
Anarchist! Yes!
He is not fixing anything. He is bent on destruction.
2
I disagree that he is an anarchist.
Anarchism actually stands for something positive, and it is not set on mere destruction for the sake of destruction alone.
I want to say that his odious excuse for a man is a nihilist, but even that doesn't fit.
That may be the crux of it: the man is so utterly vacuous and devoid of any notion of values that there isn't even a body of thought within which he fits.
He's just that terrible a human.
The dustbin of history doesn't even deserve him.
The sewer of history however might do.
7
It’s so easy to break things. It’s much more difficult to build them. Trump only knows how to destroy and bully, and he’s destroying decades of hard work, infrastructure, and good will. As imperfect as current global trade systems may be, the focus should be on improvement rather than destruction, especially when there’s nothing to replace the destroyed systems and agreements.
851
But that's today's Republican party in a nutshell. Destroy Obamacare without a replacement. Destroy the immigration system without a replacement. Cut taxes and borrow money without a plan for paying our bills. Let our infrastructure fall further into disrepair without a plan for ultimately upgrading it. The list goes on. They are the party of "Bull In China Shop."
10
" there’s nothing to replace the destroyed systems and agreements." Historically, there is indeed, something to replace destroyed systems and agreements: war.
And if you don't think that thought hasn't infected the ratbrain in the WH, remember that this was exactly the "remedy" w. suggested to the leader of a Sooth American country. His own legacy of wars is still with us.
6
Incremental improvement is the way to go with normal parties and a normal president.
But the Republican Party had been calling the government the enemy since Reagan, and now they are 90% behind a president who blatantly and gleefully lies, and helping him dismantle our Republic (the government), as well as the international order we created for our benefit.
They have declared themselves the enemy and are attacking us from within. They have declared themselves domestic enemies, and compromise with them is treason.
They have no interest in serious dialogue our incremental improvement. Every time you try to negotiate with them, they are thinking "the dumb suckers are back for more punishment. Let's use their liberal feel good rhetoric against them, lie about everything and lead them on so they can be paralyzed for another month."
Wake up and smell the hate. You try to make friends while they kick sand in your face.
You don't have to lie and cheat to beat Republicans. You have to stand up for yourselves, stand up for workers, and stand up for the truth.
You won't get any respect begging for compromise. Neither will you get any compromise. The Reagan Democrats are never getting back.
Wield the Truth like the Righteous Sword of the Enlightenment that it is, help workers, grow your base, and
WIN!
3
I work in high tech, for a company directly affected by the ridiculous kabuki dance of the trump administration’s “negotiating tactics”. Putting the squeeze on the supply chain may give short term leverage, but in the long term proves you to be an unreliable partner. Think - Middle East oil and the oil embargo of the mid 70’s.
Let’s be clear here. The technology WILL move forward, with or without the USA. The company I work for is international. In my work group, about twenty five percent of the employees are Chinese. A similar number are from India and other south asian countries. Look at the enrollment in US engineering graduate programs. The US does not have a monopoly on technology. If you prove we can’t be counted on, you will hasten the efforts to count us out.
698
But of course. They say no individual is indispensable. That also applies to countries.
3
@Dan Lamey, AZ: Great point about the enrollment in U.S. engineering graduate programs. With the criminal de-emphasis on education in the United States in general in the past 36 years (Reagan and "government is the problem," anyone), it can be seen clearly that other people with brains and talent will fill the vacuums--here in our own colleges and universities. As nature abhors a vacuum, so does progress. America isn't so precious or so sainted or so anything that the world can't leave us behind--and not give us a second thought. Donald Trump is a grave-digger and his "base" can't see it. The Republicans on Capitol Hill do see it--but they don't care. That's the difference. More money for defense but little or nothing for education, R&D, de-emphasize or de-legitimize the sciences and attendant, parallel catastrophes of nature and the human condition and voilà: America will be "made great again."
7
Enrollment is down in U.S. Engineering programs because the H1b visa program is being fraudulently used to replace entire programming and engineering staffs with foreigners at half the wages.
The shrinking demand for American STEM grads is lessening the demand for these grueling programs
Now Trump wants to make this a permanent feature of immigration by using "merit immigration" instead of family immigration.
This is probably the real goal of the terrorist tactics he is using at the border (spying children from the arms of their parents.
While you are all worked about useless walls and fascist border policies, her is trying to take the highest paying jobs from our children and give them to the highly educated children of rich foreigners, to save global billionaires even more money at our expense.
Stop taking everything Trump does at face value. If he is not behind three manipulations, someone else is.
I add for family based immigration. Merit based immigration will kill our technology lead.
At this point, around this issue, I'm starting to be mystified by the total acquiescence of our Republican Congress to this. Every House member and quite a few GOP Senators are up for reelection in the fall, and not only will Trump's trade war hurt their constituents, it will give their Democratic opponents a powerful issue to use against them.
Don't get me wrong; I would like nothing better than to see the Dems take both Houses of Congress in November and put the brakes on this runaway crazy-train. I've spent my life watching elected Republicans do stupid things, but this seems politically suicidal.
I can only hope.
608
Republican legislators acquiesce because it is in their own political interests to do so. They are unprincipled or spineless or both. That's been the GOP for many years now.
What I find more disturbing is that a majority of voters in their districts support government policies that hurt themselves. They seem not to recognize, or act on, their own interests. I've given this phenomenon a lot of thought -- and so, of course, have many other people. If I had a single, simple solution to the problem, I would tell the world. At least, I would post it in this Comment section. Unfortunately, I don't.
I worry -- but haven't given up all hope for the common sense and decency of most voters, even in the reddest states. I'll be doing some campaigning in a nearby swing district & I'll keep my fingers crossed.
6
Republicans seem quite confident they will win in November, regardless of how badly they behave.
What do they know that we don’t?
2
Their constituents seemingly don't have the intelligence to take themselves to the emergency room even if they know that they or someone else shot them in the foot.
Mr. Trump's capricious approach to world trade reflects his shallow understanding of economics and international politics. It doesn't matter who is advising him because he doesn't listen. Hubris clogs his ears and mind. The only hope we can have is that Congress will actually rise up to do its job and stop living in fear of political retaliations from this megalomaniac. If this Congress won't do it, we need one that will.
456
Not much will improve if the Tea Party stumbles into the WH again with a GOP Congress. This is a toxic mix that poisons both economics and morality.
Authoritarian leaders never listen. They assume they know it all and know what's best. In their eyes, listening is for followers so that they follow his orders (obedience). We are supposed to be in 'fear and trembling' and Herr Trump is outraged that we are not in fear of him. Listening is for losers and the weak, he thinks.
In truth we learn more with our mouths closed than open, flapping in the breeze and not making any sense anyway. He's such a bore and boorish. He has nothing to say that would convince me that he has any common sense of common decency.
With a morally corrupt leadership the GOP will never move on Trump. Resistance inside and outside the GOP is futile as McConnel and Ryan are accomplices. The sad truth is they have no insight into their treason. McConnel thinks things are going just fine - for their owners and donors. The party abandoned the middle class long ago. It seems though the base has no understanding of that.