What comes thru in an overwhelming percentage of the comments the NYT obviously select to appear here is the notion that the writer is above the fray of middle class issues. They come across as too smart and sophisticated to worry about illegal immigrants, borders, globalism, high tax rates, jobs, trade, etc. They just drip with hatred/disdain of Trump and the GOP . They all sing from the same choir hymnal and mock average Americans and their concerns/fears.. then they can't figure out why they keep losing. In their minds, they're just too smart to lose. I love it
Bottom line here, Gillespie is an establishment Republican that sometimes wears a Trump hat when he thinks it will help him.
If he wins, most Republican pols. in the upcoming elections will follow his lead.
If he loses, you may see more republicans tossing Trump overboard.
1
Well to answer my own post....Gillespie lost by eight pos., bigger than expected. Look for republican candidates to start to trickle away from Trump and as the midterms near, abandon him in droves, in the states where he may be still unpopular.
1
If ground game can make it happen,Virginia Democrats--staffers and a legion of volunteers--have knocked over 500,000 doors this weekend.
This turnout is even higher than last year...
Hope y'all are rooting for us!!
2
Neither Northram nor Gillespie gives a hoot about poor people in southern Virginia; they are playing football with poor people. Northern liberals want their sanctuary cities and illegals and Republicans want to bring back the Confederacy.
There are NO sanctuary cities in Virginia.
If Northram would talk about the tax bill and middle class, I bet he would win.
There was record-breaking turnout in the early vote in Fairfax County (Northern VA), I wish I knew if this is good for Gillespie or Northam.
1
I don't trust polls anymore. Or the election process. Or the electorate in most places. The fact that this race is still close is depressing.
why does this poll not report results from the non-white college educated voters and the non-white non-college educated voters? Curious that only the white voters are divided into these two subgroups?
3
The Virginia gubernatorial race is well within the margin of error, much like candidate Trump was "behind" on November 7th, 2016. The figures represented in the graph accompanying this article shows that we are truly at risk putting the inmates in charge of the national asylum.
Higher education threatens the GOP almost as much as Muslims and immigrants. It is hardly any wonder that, in 2012, Rick Santorum responded to President Obama's vision for expanding educational opportunity for all Americans with the words, "What a snob!"
1
So how many people were polled in total and from what venues?
What a tragic state of affairs when a blatantly racist series of ads helped Gillespie tighten the polls.
1
A few weeks back, Dems were gloating over their lead in Virginia as absolute proof the voters repudiated Trumpeskian politics. They were drunk on overconfidence and, in their typical arrogance, prematurely declared themselves the victors. Yet, here we are again with election day upon us and the huge margin once owned by Northam cut to statistical insignificance and Gillespie owning the momentum. The Democrats lost the White House and pretty much every significant political contest since. There is no indication that the tide will change. Indeed, with "friends" like Donna Brazil pretty much validating DJT's "crooked Hillary" message, the GOP has learned that, even with the most unpopular president in modern history, they have nothing to be worried about for the forseeable future.
"Democrat with narrow lead" usually = "decisive Republican victory".
Pollster: Are you going to vote for the nice moderate Democrat or that evil Republican racist?
Respondent: Why, that nice moderate Democrat, of course.
2
The real question in 2016, and again here in VA, is why is the election even close? Why isn't it a blow out?
HRC was an uninspiring candidate. Despite that, a lot of help from Russians and the FBI - Trump barely won in MI- WI. Looks like the Dem candidate is again a weak and uninspiring one. But theres no Comey to Eds rescue...
Ah yes, the same Poll last November 8 that elected H R Clinton the 45th President with 84 % up until Midnight! How's she doin, FOLKS?
2
Polls are like noses, everyone has them, and they're not always correct!
Similar to the past three presidential races, it will be the diversity of voters in Northern Virginia that ultimately decides the fate of the VA gubernatorial election. There is a huge divide between the state of Virginia and the DC suburbs.
This contest should not be close. The anger of White Hate is obviously still strong enough in some states to sway elections. This will no hold as time passes. This White Rage will eventually shrink to proportions that will make their voices diminished to the point of being moot. And God help them when they are no longer in charge. They better pray that those who become America's future leaders do not do what Whites did for so long to Others. Even White Supremacist Americans do not deserve such a fate.
DD
Manhattan
Why are only whites separated out by college degree?
6
Because the poorly educated ones mostly go for the Republicans!
1
Because they vote along educational lines. Democrats win the majority of minority groups' votes, meaning they attract minorities of all education levels. White voters are the only ones whose preferences can be broken down along educational lines.
How about a Poll based on where people work? You will see it's the private sector vs the big state...... And if Educated = Socialist, then we have much deeper issues to discuss...
1
Dear Virginia
Please show up and vote
Vote in every election
Your autonomy really does depend on it.
5
I have no idea who will win but with 15% undecided the polls are even more nonsensical than they were last November. As happened then many Rep simply refused to answer because of great mistrust in the media. It was these "silent
voters" which propelled Trump to a 90 Electoral vote win.
If anything given the ongoing never ending attacks on this president we are likely seeing the same thing but even more of it today. The Democrat may very well win tomorrow but if this race is as close as it appears to be it will be a decided plus for the Republican because the race not supposed to be close.
How bad does it look that the Democrat flip flops Ed so obviously on his position on sanctuary cities?
2
Don't forget that in VA there are many rural voters who can't be contacted via auto-dial, and they will vote Blue.
Yes, there's hope that this may be the beginning of the end for Goldie Locks...
1
I am working the campaign--and hoping for a Democratic win....
But, sadly, rural Virginians do NOT tend to vote blue....
We depend on the cities of Northern Va, Richmond, and VA Beach to counteract the red rural districts....
If you want a more complete understanding of these polls, and trends in Virginia, I suggest you take a look at this piece by Harry Enten: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-virginia-governors-race-might-n...
Still, if you are a Democrat and want to win, I suggest you head to the polls with Democrats under each arm.
1
Democrats keep taking polls that show how much America loves them and how certain their victory is.
Then they lose when people actually vote.
What good are polls when you have pollsters that only tell you what you want to hear?
Hillary will win in a landslide.
7
Well, at the State level the popular vote decides the outcome...
1
The polls were right during the 2016 campaign. When taken in aggregate they showed an uncertain race and that Clinton's prospects of winning were weaker than conventional wisdom would have anticipated. Nate Silver's model gave trump a 30% chance of winning. That isn't quite a toss up but it is closer to 50/50 than 0/100.
In this case the poll was also 'correct'. Northram had a 3 point lead. That isn't a huge lead, that isn't a landslide, and when you understand odds it did not rule out a Gillespie victory either. Basically this poll wasn't really all that 'useful', it doesn't convey much of anything other than that the race is close (and it was).
If the Dems can't win this race after a year of Trump, they should be ashamed of themselves.
1
Your conditional clause is wholly unnecessary.
1
They need not wait to do that.
2
Get ready for a landslide win for Gillespie.
3
Perhaps too much weigh is given to the completion of a college degree. Many people do little more than occupy a seat for a few years and learn little before getting their papers, while others who never matriculate or complete their degrees read voraciously and have real world experience far beyond their contemporaries.
The country has many college "drop outs" running multi-million dollar businesses and leading successful lives.
4
Actually, a recent study shows that many 'college graduates' know less when they come out than when they went in.
And in a 2005 study by the US Dept of Education, they found that 4% of recent college graduates were illiterate, and another 21% read at the 5th-grade level.
I'll ask for even more:
"It would be beneficial to the reader to include prominently the margin of error in polling stories."
I suspect I'm not alone in wondering this. When I read two polls that reach vastly different conclusions -- say, one poll shows Candidate A ahead by 8 points and the other poll shows Candidate B ahead by 8 points -- how can it be that both polls claim a "margin of error" smaller than that wide discrepancy? In polls such as those in the example just given, the typical MOE is about 4-5 points. How can that be?
2
Even more important than MOE and sample size is who exactly was polled.
Was it All Adults, Registered Voters (RV), or Likely Voters (LV)?
Tell us please.
In Nate Cohn's defense:
"Please stop making predictions on political elections. I watched for weeks the 90 to 100% chance of Hillary winning the election."
During the NYT's election night coverage last November, Nate Cohn was, by a wide margin, the first of the several NYT people who recognized that things weren't going all that well for Hillary Clinton. One can say it was his job, as a pollster kind of guy, to notice those things first, but I remember being surprised at how long his NYT comrades pooh-poohed his warnings and continued to insist that the reported returns were supporting the predictions of a Clinton victory. Nate Cohn deserves credit for speaking up early.
Pollsters in general lost respect because they missed the mark so widely in the Trump/Clinton race (a "miss" foreshadowed by their big miss on the Brexit vote several months earlier). Nate Cohn was tarred with the same brush, but he did apply his expertise on Election Night to come up with some insights that the others seemed to be missing.
1
Quie correct. Data is not wisdom.
This article does not state the margin of error. It's impossible to know whether the difference between candidates is statistically significant without that information. It takes one sentence to include, and it literally enables one to distinguish a close race from a dead heat.
2
I remember this a bit differently:
"President Bush [the Younger] tried for a bipartisan approach [to loosen immigration restrictions] but was blocked by his own Party's radical right element..."
Bush was blocked by MORE than just "his own Party's radical right element." He misread public support for looser immigration restrictions, thinking it was there when it really wasn't. When he figured out (pretty quickly, from the public's reaction to his proposal) that most Americans wanted immigration laws to stay the same or get tighter, not looser, he promptly withdrew his proposal.
2
A different "reality zone?"
"That white, working class voters still support Trump by a 48% margin means that they have to be living in a different reality zone."
They're not alone. Many people (including I) believe that global warming is occurring. I believe it because I've checked recorded temperatures in my city (San Francisco) over the past 40 years; they've risen 6 degrees on average, which I consider significant.
However...
Most people who "believe" in global warming are also expected to belief that sea levels are rising. That just isn't happening, at least not here in SF. According to actual measurements -- actual measurements -- sea level has risen about 1" so far this century, despite predictions that it will rise 36-96" this century (I don't recall ever seeing a prediction lower than 36"). In spots along the southern Oregon coast, and along most of the Pacific Alaska coast, sea level DROPS each year.
At some point, one has to ask whether people who insist that global warming inevitably leads to sea level rise are living in their own "reality zone."
2
It will.
When land ice melts - the waters will rise.
Those of us who remember the 1988 contest between Bush and Dukakis remember this very well:
" ... the notorious Willie Horton ad ..."
Dukakis was sunk after that ad appeared, though I've always thought that Dukakis (who'd held a comfortable lead in the polls as late as late July) suffered nearly as much, possibly even more, from the photo of him riding around in an Army tank -- trying to look "military macho," I guess. His head barely poked out the top of the tank, and he looked like nothing so much as the cartoon character, Rocky the Squirrel -- not exactly the "military macho" image he'd hoped to convey.
Regardless of whether that photo started Dukakis' downward trajectory, the Willie Horton ad sealed his fate. For those unfamiliar with the ad, it showed a prisoner who'd been let out of a Massachusetts prison for the weekend (Dukakis was then the governor of Massachusetts) and had traveled south (to some city on the Eastern seaboard -- I can't remember which city, and it really doesn't matter) to murder someone. The ad's general message was that it probably hadn't been a very good idea to let Mr. Horton out of prison for the weekend and that, if Dukakis got elected, he'd probably let lots of prisoners go free.
Mr. Horton was black, and the ad was criticized as racist, allegedly appealing to whites' irrational fears of black men. Bush may or may not have intended this – frankly, I have no idea.
One thing for sure about the Willie Horton ad, though: it worked.
1
Most educated whites (I'm a highly educated white man) distance themselves from those who disfavor all immigration. BUT many of us agree that there is, or at least should be, a very big difference between legal immigration and illegal immigration.
Some years ago, I read an allegation that many Democratic candidates don't draw that important distinction, and I decided that that criticism was unfair. I've since changed my mind. Very many Democratic candidates indeed do see no need to draw that distinction. They just talk about "immigration" being good for America. I agree with that, if the immigration is legal, but not if it's illegal. I think most Americans feel that way.
5
Please stop making predictions on political elections. I watched for weeks the 90 to 100% chance of Hillary winning the election.
Umm...Mike, the polls had Clinton and Trump tied within the statistical margins of error for the last week of the polls. Especially after the Comey letter and the Russian ads targeting WI, PA, and MI.
It would be beneficial to the reader to include prominently the margin of error in polling stories.
In this poll, according to the listing on RCP to which the link in this story refers, the margin of error is plus- or minus- 3 percentage points. That range means the two candidates may be in a statistical tie, or that one candidate, for example, is as much as six points above the other, or that the other candidate is three points ahead. There are a number of combinations here.
In any event, when a poll has a margin of error of 3 points, it is misleading at best to say a candidate who is three points ahead has a "modest lead."
He may -- or he may not. But one thing for sure, he's within the margin of error.
2
If VA elects the lobbyist who ran the Willie Horton 2.0 ads because the rural military pediatrician is too liberal for them... well, you just can’t fix stupid and I suggest we all stop trying.
3
We should never, ever stop trying.
3
Forget polling data. I seem to remember a number of polls in November 2016 which were off by a bit.
4
Trump got only one thing right and I mean only. You can not support illegal immigration. Democrats do you support millions of low wage, low education illegals coming into US. Wall is stupid but illegal is illegal. Democrats do you support ISIS terrorists coming into the country? Of course not, so proposed a reasonable solution or keep losing.
7
The facts are that the Reagan Administration got some tough immigration reforms through but they have never been enforced by either Republican or Democratic administrations. Then the Clinton Administration passed some tough immigration legislation but the Republicans rolled most of the measures back after they lost Latino votes. Later President Clinton wanted to provide amnesty with a path to citizenship to thousands of immigrants caught up in a technicality of the Reagan era law but the Republicans blocked it. President Bush tried for a bipartisan approach but was blocked by his own Party's radical right element -- the Tea Party. And we see how the Dream Act that was introduced under President Bush and the bipartisan Gang of Eight under President Obama faired with rabid right-wing GOP opposition.
So, it's not the Democrats that have failed to propose and enact comprehensive immigration legislation; that problem can be laid at the feet of the radical GOP.
4
ISIS isn't coming over the Mexican border. Obama deported more illegals than any president before him. And Donald Trump loves the foreign low-wage workers he hires at Mar-a-Lago over qualified Americans.
The point of the article is that this election will be a strong predictor of who wins in 2020. Of course, that isn't true. According to the editorial page, before 2020 we are likely to fight a nuclear war. The Times also tells us that the beloved Obamacare will likely be gutted and the Republican tax bill will benefit the rich and will undermine the economy. With the country entirely decimated in 2020, the Virginia governor's race will be entirely forgotten and the Democrats will win in 2020 by a unanimous vote.
1
Oh how I wish you'd be right about the vote and wrong about nuclear war. A more likely scenario for me is some kind of new civil war. None of the options are pretty.
1
There is only one candidate who supports public schools in this race. And that is the democrat.
It's a shame that the Virginia democrat isn't running on public schools and agains the pro-Betsy DeVos privatization Republican.
In NYC, we have a Mayoral election in which the Mayor - a Democrat - IS running on his terrific record on public schools. And the Mayor is being opposed by two right wing Republicans who love Betsy DeVos and charters.
The democrats in Virginia have forgotten how much voters hate the right wing ideas of Betsy DeVos and how the Republican plans to force their communities to embrace publicly funding religious schools, private schools, and charters. They should make that the issue. It's a winning one.
9
The Party needs to figure out that a lot of ordinary Democrats, even liberal ones, are pretty touchy about immigration. It's unfortunate that Republicans are better liars.
4
It would be great for Virginia if Gillespie wins. The Democrats already control both Senate seats. A Republican Governor would bring some political and idealogical balance thus forcing both parties to be more responsive to ALL their constituents. This is what American Democracy should look like come election day. A real horse race. Kudos to the citizens of the State of Virginia for being thoughtful and pragmatic and forcing career politicians to actually work for the privilege of representing and serving you.
3
As an outside observer, it would be horrendous if the once-conservative-now-alt-right-spouting Gillespie won. Why? Look at what occupies the Oval Office.
An independent who has often voted for Republicans, I will vote a straight Democratic ticket in Virginia tomorrow to send a message. Enough!
26
To Nate Cohn:
This is a request for ACCURATE use of language. It's really important. Please pay attention.
The poll results show "Whites without a degree" vs "College-educated whites".
But in your article you say, "White working-class voters said they backed Mr. Trump..."
"Working class" and "without a degree" are NOT synonymous. Please don't use them that way. It's sets up a false "class conflict". I and all of the college educated people I know have worked hard all our lives. We are working class people AND we are college educated.
Please make an effort to be more careful in the future.
11
It's the south: racism always wins.
5
It always wins as the autonomic response of the left. More than that, not so much.
5
Is this going to be another one of those races where the Democrat leads all the way up until 9pm on election night?
7
At least there won't be an electoral college to distort the voters preference
5
That darn Constitution! It's always getting in the way of the results you want!
By contrast to the found-in-the-penumbras right to abortion, the EC at least has the virtue of being an express part of the Founding Father's design.
Support for sanctuary cities will never be a winning strategy for Dems.
9
Though these numbers are certainly suspect given the very poor predictive track record of the Upshot group, the report is that LESS THAN HALF of College Educated Whites and LESS THAN HALF of Hispanic/Asian/Others plan to vote for the Democratic candidate Northam. This does not show a base of any sort in these important groups for the Democratic candidate and go against the stereotype that these groups are strong Liberal, Democratic voters.
2
After Donna Brazile's revelations, how can anyone vote D? The republicans are a bit unorganized, but they have not been shown to be crooked as a dog's hind leg.
6
Go read about Abraham Lincolns 1860 nomination. It makes last years look tame. In party nomination process has always been bare knuckled.
1
So true!!
No one is perfect, and Ms. Brazile's revelations are what a lot of Democrats have suspected all along. ad, but no real surprise. But while there is a lot of room for improvement in the Democratic Party, the untrustworthy Republicans have proven repeatedly that they are not up to governing the whole population of the US, just repping for their fringe group, and the level of chicanery it takes for them to continue to hold power is mindblowing. The Mueller investigations are already showing that, with more to come - and you know the level of dirt and corruption they will reveal. If you love America, in any state and in any election, vote Democratic - it's the last best hope for our country.
Like anyone cares who wins in Virginia, if this is the state of the world to come.
1
Remember Virginians, Bad politicians are elected by good people who don't vote.
18
Enron Ed: That is ALL any Virginia voter needs to know when entering the voting booth this Tuesday.
4
Do the polls this time take into account the election tampering, voter suppression, and last-minute slime attacks we saw in 2008?
2
Dear Virginia—the rest of the Country wants to continue to think of Virginia as wonderful, insightful and reasonable people. People that laugh at and fully ignore campaign messages of fear, bigotry, divisiveness and hate. Reject it for 100 reasons. Resist.
8
Republicans, who allege to be committed to draining the swamp, have crowned a career lobbyist and RNC chair.
There's nothing more out of touch than that, but apparently it makes no difference.
Sounds like the election will be hacked ( why is Trump meeting with Putin this week ? ), and Republicans are scrambling to reverse engineer a rationale in the press for the inexplicable.
1
What Old Dominion voters want are populist lunatic candidates with more genteel and respectable demeanors. They go down easier with the hors d'oeuvres at cocktail hour.
3
I am afraid that your polls, which almost always point to a Democratic victory, are not accurate.
There is only one poll that will matter, I'm sure we all learned that, eh ?
2
Virginia has a great state University and college system, it would be a shame to lose it to the party that doesn't believe in the value or wisdom of science or education. The citizens of Virginia should watch out for the Republicans who are cutting Medicare and whose dreams of tax cuts for the middle class seem to have a sell by date of five years and then a lot of middle class will be paying more to accommodate the permanent cuts for the rich.
11
The value of wisdom? I am a pro choice mother who would never vote for the socialist corrupt Democratic party. Control your body? People like you are one issue voters. How about the federal government under the Dems who want to control everything in your life?
5
Which aspects of your life do you think that Democrats want to control? Do you think that a Republican government would allow your children to be pro-choice?
1
It is a mystery to me why there are ANY female supporters of the GOP. Do these women not have daughters , mothers , aunts or female friends ? Why do they support the party of NO that wants to control their bodies , close down Planned Parenthood , take away healthcare from their families and give an $800 billion tax cut to the 1% at their expense ? For that matter, why are there ANY male GOP supporters, other than the ones owned by the 1% & the few who actually believe in the thrice disproved Trickle Down economics which benefit ONLY the 1% ??
America , you have elected , sort of , a mentally ill conman who is being abetted by the GOP to harm you. Please look up from your iPhone long enough to see the rocks that the US ship of state is crashing against. Unite march on DC and shake the gates of the WH off their hinges. Pay a visit to the Capitol with barrels of tar & feathers.
10
It's sad IMO that the NYT, its reporters and/or columnists will not even note that while President Obama, VP Biden, Sens. Cory Booker/Kamala Harris, etc. have been physically campaigning for Ralph Northam, Bernie Sanders as of this morning has not sent a single tweet from his 2 official accounts noting there's even a VA election to go vote in - much less endorsing Lt. Gov. Northam. (He endorsed Bill de Blasio.)
It's a clear power play; IMO he doesn't care if there's four years of damage from that power play. He and his followers are showing there will be no bipartisanship if they participate in the Democratic Party; it's going to be my way or the highway.
That failure to see a big picture is going to ultimately doom his movement - but in the short-term, he can do a lot of damage. One hopes some of his followers are beginning to see beyond the myopic point of view. It's stunning how some don't seem to think these elections will affect them and their families personally. It's not even letting perfect be the enemy of the good - and it's not "just hard politics". With Trump in office, it's straight-up nihilism.
Bernie Sanders Sits Out a Tight Race in Virginia After His Candidate Falls Short: https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernie-sanders-sits-out-a-tight-race-in-vi...
P.S. Howard Dean just called a statement on the VA race by a progressive group he founded "incredibly stupid."
https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/926255630532382721
8
When one looks at the damage that the revelations in Donna Brazille's book about a corrupt DNC, whether or not Bernie Sanders tweets or not , is the LEAST of their problems.
7
It has just been made public that Clinton and the DNC rigged the election and essentially stole it from Bernie and you have the audacity to say that he should support the corrupt Democrat party anyways?
That argument will work just about as well with the electorate.
Maybe the Democrats can soften their positioning somewhat.
Instead of the knee-jerk reaction of simply calling any opponent racist, perhaps the Democrats should say something like "we realize we are completely corrupt, but at least we are not racists".
That little self-deprecation may be endearing to the electorate.
The Democrats, in their present state, are not much better than the Republicans, BUT they must win every possible race in order to stop the R "war machine" of secrecy, lies and distributed irresponsibility. This country has turned the corner into a very dark alley, led by Trump. We have to fix this and regain some vestige of self respect for ourselves and the rest of the world.
1
We are just coming out of the gutter where Obama put us.
1
The real test is whether those undecideds get out an vote and whether the Dems can get their people to the polls. Very disappointing to see that independents are split evenly between the two candidates who aren't even close on the issues. I sense we are sinking ever so slowly but surely into a country where fear and hate are the first responses to so many of our problems.
5
Agree 100%. Wow, Independents-what happened to your aversion against establishment politicians and their poster child, Ed Gillespie? Are you so enamored with all the winning Trump has registered on Twitter that you would like to see his maniacal nonsense enshrined in policy by increasingly rabid Republicans? Wow, independents, Kudos, really.
Prepare yourself for another surprise Republican upset. Democrats don't show up for off year elections. Republicans, with torches and pitchforks in hand, always do.
6
That makes Democrats out to be stupid, benighted and entirely lacking in civic engagement. OK, but how do you propose to change the situation?
1
Winning on race baiting is hardly a strategy to govern.
4
Oh, but it is.
4
I went to college in Virginia. Played soccer all over the state. Made friends, and met their families. Still a lot of good ol' good ol' to be had there.
If this election tips Democratic, I'll be very surprised.
I'm not holding my breath.
3
The Civil War is still being fought there. Racial prejudice (homophobia, antisemitism and all such ills of humanity), spoken or implied, are rampant, and rural education is a joke. Most of the south and a lot of the mid-country are also like that. I fail to understand why anyone could be so mindlessly bound to a destructive cult like the present-day Republicans, led by a narcissistic sociopath and self-destructive moron.
7
And the reason, New Jersey Ivy League, that you know so intimately what Southerners think and feel is what? You grew up in South Jersey?
1
Ah, nothing like shooting the messenger. And you can elucidate all the nuanced thinking going on in Trumpland for us, yes? Since good education, decency in the form of political correctness and respect for the complexity of a racially and ethnically diverse American society personify satanic evil for Trump voters, please tell us about those values of "Southerners," Wine Country.
1
When you have nothing to offer people, you try to scare them into submission. MS-13, blacks, Mexicans, rapists, child molesters, "sanctuary" seekers. The Trump disease can't survive without whipping gullible followers into frenzies of histrionic fury and constant outrage about things that have nothing to do with governing.
It's been said before, but bears repeating. If there were no Frankensteins out there, Trump and the captured GOP would be have to invent, patent and mass produce them left and right. I hope people's basic decency forbids them to sanction Gillespie's awful behavior.
8
What should horrify people more that Gillespie's racist, throw-back, poly-phobic platform is that his opponents lead is only by a thin margin.
8
Poly-phobia! It's the new left-wing shibboleth! (At least we will have no more specific "phobias", since poly-phobia kinda includes everything).
"Phobia", translated into normalspeak= "view differing from my own".
1
Must be the same pollsters that gabs Hillary a 90% chance of winning
2
I live in California as a moderate Democrat...and TRUST ME.. Virginia you do not want you state to end-up like mine: illegals run the show, Spanish is the official language, the protection of illegals is THE priority of state/local politicians, if anybody brings-up or has even the slightest regard for the rule of law, then you're branded a racist.
Vote Gillespie or suffer our fate.
7
I live in California and refute every word you wrote. We have a strong economy, a diverse population that with the exception of a few, including the more racist white Republicans hold outs, that gets along, and we are creating jobs across the state. Every state should be as lucky as ours to enjoy the diversity of our population.
16
And I refute every word you write sir. We do not have a strong economy and our state is cash strapped. We have a MAJOR housing crisis that the liberal politicians refuse to address: there are make-shift homeless communities along side the major freeways and interstate highways and overpasses -- that have built "homes" out of tents and pieces of wood scraps. We have diversity because of chain migration, but California does not have INCLUSION. There is a difference sir.
California has the lowest performing students compared to Southern states!
...and the governor would rather protect criminal illegal aliens than the hardworking AMERICANS that voted for him.
1
As a fellow resident, I'm more inclined to agree with Lovett than you, Dr. Pangloss.
1
After Charlottesville, Virginia must prove that it has not reverted to the Confederacy. Gillespie's campaign has been disgraceful. As with Alabama and Judge Moore, the soul of the South is at stake. Move back to Jim Crow and KKK with narrow white supremacist and bigoted views or forward into the future of the 21st century. It would be sad to see a state as beautiful as Virginia turn its back on the future.
6
Virginia democrats tearing down statues of George Washington, pledge to make Virginia a sanctuary state that release illegal alien criminal felons back onto the streets making sure the feds don’t know, terry McCaulif Hillary dnc machine running rigged elections filled with voter fraud, ms13 running wild in the streets.
Ed is going to win...
5
Pre-election polls show the democrat winning.
How’d that work out last time??
4
Yes, and Hillary Clinton had a 91% chance of winning the presidential election according to the NY Times on October 18, 2016.
So...take your polls and (fill in the blanks).
Thanks You.
4
Corbin from Minneapolis asked why there was a category for “Whites without a college degree”, and none for the other races. He came to the conclusion, “Basically the implication is that Asians, Blacks, Hispanics without a degree don't matter to either party..”.
RichD from Grand Rapids thought the categories were racially motivated as well, found it offensive, and felt that this discriminated against him as a white person.
“Seriously, these phrases, since they are exclusively used to refer to white people, are racially motivated, and are meant to belittle them, just as they are meant to humble, humiliate, and shame them…. as more white folks begin to ponder, as I have here, why they are they only ones who receive this treatment, and begin to fight back against this very overt racism against them!”
This is very unfortunate, but I think the answer lies in the nature of polling. Pollsters probably think that blacks, hispanics, etc. have more issues in common among them as a group than they have differences based on education.
White people, on the other hand probably have different issues based on income levels. Education levels are a proxy for income levels.
I hope this helps explain this, and if anyone has a better explanation I would be happy to hear it.
It seems like the slightest things cause offense. I have no idea how to fix that.
After your disastrous last poll showing Clinton an 85% chance lead only to watch it all be up in smoke, I’m shocked you would have any authority for anyone who reads this paper when it comes to pulling
3
Since November 8, 2017, I don't believe in polls.
7
Thank you for giving us the heads up.
Without a strong black turnout, Gillespie will win. And black historically turnout in much lower numbers in mid-term elections.
I'm sure Northam and the Democrats are trying everything to increase the turnout. Proving once again that Democrats need black voters a lot more than blacks need Democrats.
7
Dems will continue to struggle in races they should win until they abandon their divisive reliance on identity politics and demonization of white voters.
6
We a have a stat for white education and voting but not black in this survey. The idea of the white stat is to show stupid white people vote republican more then smart whites. What they don’t want to show is college educated blacks voted more for Trump then non college blacks. And by a bigger percentage margin then the white stat. It is an interesting stat though. Educate blacks and they are more likely to vote republican. Educate whites and we have the opposite.
1
It'll all turn around once Joe Biden enters the Va Gov race. Right, Nate?
2
Some commenters say that the only racism in the country is against White working people. Poor White folks- we are so put upon. The reason non-college educated Whites are polled is that they support that nonsense. They have bought the White Nationalist line hook, line and sinker, and they vote for White racist candidates by a large majority, while Blacks see the racist dog whistles and overt racism promoted by the current Republican party (and the Russians) whether they are college educated or not. The right-wing propaganda machine (Fox, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc.) has created an alternate universe for Republican voters. In that universe, Republicans are going to stick up for the interests of working people, even as they refuse to increase the minimum wage, vote for huge tax cuts for the rich, and do everything they can to strip all regulations that protect workers. Republicans know how to appeal to the worst instincts of voters and distract from the reality of their policies that have benefited the wealthy at the expense of working people for decades. A party with policies that only benefit the very wealthy has to convince working people to vote against their own self-interests. The shame is that so many working people, mostly White, have been convinced to do just that.
9
This should be an easy Democratic victory. Trump lost VA by five points, and I assume his popularity is similar to the rest of the country - 38 per cent.
If the Republican, who is not exactly Mr. Excitement, win this, Nancy Pelosi better cancel here coronation plans for Speaker in 2018.
This would be a major disaster for the Democrats.
2
"Polls, Democrats & Lead" are words used in combination in headlines that should send progressives into panic mode after the election of Trump. Even if Northam pulls off the slimmest of victories, his win should be considered a loss for Democrats in a race that should have been a landslide for all intents and purposes, especially in Virginia and after 9 harrowing months of Donald J. Trump.
Based on current Trump polling among his base, the takeaway, sadly, for any future political candidate from any party is to lie, lie, lie and stoke angry fear toward any individual, group or institution that is not exclusively white, male, Christian or that doesn't extend preferential treatment to the same. Never have been less hopeful and more cynical about the present and future states of democracy, equality, fairness, ethics, integrity and civility in America. Russian meddling is absolutely a contributing factor and continues to be one of our most grave historical threats to our democracy but it represents a symptom of a much more serious and vexing problem that exists in America and in the hearts and minds of many of its citizens.
1
Some free advice to Northam:
Don't spend the last few days before the election hobnobbing with celebrities, as Hillary Clinton did. Get some photos taken of you standing next to some working-class family -- not Bruce Springsteen.
I don't know whether that would have made the difference for Hillary Clinton or not, but I remember thinking at the time: "My goodness, you must think this election is in the bag. Why else would you spend the last weekend before the election hanging out with wealthy celebrities when every analyst is telling you (correctly, in my view) that you should be hanging out with working-class people."
Again, maybe it wouldn't have mattered, but I'll never cease to be amazed that Hillary Clinton was even willing to take that chance.
6
I agree!! Northam should be visible around the state and make calls to voters emphasizing the importance of voting and asking for votes. He has not done this to date, not sure why.
1
So lots of "Northam is boring" comments. Wonderful. So nothing about his basic decency, how he might govern, or his policies. The chasm between a candidate's campaign "personality" and what s/he might actually do continues to grow. Yay America.
8
These people prefer lobbyists like Gillespie.
2
Or McAuliffe.
1
Trumpism is actually an appearance of a European style right, which seems to have knocked the old religious, economic, and warrior rights out of the way. Sad to say, they are over.
2
Every election is a "referendum on Trump," until the Republican candidate wins. Then "big money in politics" gets blamed.
4
"Ralph Northam is an an Army veteran, the Lieutenant Governor, a pediatric neurologist and a moderate guy with good public policy ideas.
Ed Gillespie is a career Republican lobbyist who spent his entire career propping up corporate profiteers and Robber Barons."
This says it all. I hope Virginia voters aren't fooled.
7
Gillespie also was nominated for the Senate by a rigged system.
They didn't even bother with a primary, just party leaders in a closed door meeting.
A coronation. He holds his nose over the people, while Northam has been with us, helping us.
2
I have been in the VA system for ten years. Regardless of my political beliefs, the VA has done a complete 180 in a positive direction since Trump has been elected. The years under Obama and Bush were horrible and I've been to multiple hospitals in several states. I guess getting rid of the union solved a lot of issues. I hope Northam is truly dedicated to proper care for veterans.
McAuliffe barely defeated Cuccinelli.
How and why.
Obama used the Justice Department to criminally charge Governor McDonnell, charges which it later dismissed.
This deceitful political campaign maneuver by the Democrats gave them Governor, Lt. Gov and Attorney General.
Cuccinelli is not McConnell.
People know this. Why don't you ?
1
I hope today's news cements this win...Flynn, the man who chanted Lock Her Up is now possibly the next to be indicted. Then we see that Russian money is now in Silicon Valley and to Yuri Milner, specifically. And today Trump is asking for Putin's help on North Korea. Nearly forgot, the Commerce Secretary is now known to have investments in the Russian firm, Rosneft. Well something comes to mind...Drain the swamp! Vote Democrat. This is urgent and Trump's ratings prove this...and they will now pass a Tax Plan which will benefit the rich on very high end property, among other things, making the US's Budget Deficit soar by trillions! This is the new Republican dream.
3
So who really picks up their cell phone if they see a number they do not recognize--maybe 5% of the people who are lonely and no one ever calls. That is the reason all of these polls are so inaccurate. Why are the media wasting money on polls which have consistently been so inaccurate.
3
Whenever polls show Democrats with a slim lead, I get worried. Often it seems that this situation precedes a Republican "upset." See Clinton vs Trump (in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), John Kerry vs. George W. Bush (popular vote) and, more recently, Jon Ossoff (D) vs. Karen Handel (R) in the 6th District of Georgia.
It's easy to distrust the poll counts, but I wonder if it's the vote count that we can't trust.
In Georgia, for example, it's been reported that Handel defeated Ossoff only on the votes counted on Diebold touch-screen machines that have no verifiable paper trail. However, Ossoff defeated Handel nearly 2 to 1 in the paper ballots that were mailed in and verifiable. The servers had been exposed to internet interference before the election, and these compromised servers were also purged of all voting numbers a few days after the election in a state with Republican leadership. When the numbers are close, it seems easier to fudge the results.
We need to shine a bright light on the vulnerability/hackability of our voting systems, and keep it there, until we are convinced that our votes actually count as they were cast.
4
Don't worry. Trump is meeting with Putin this week, so I'm sure that there will be no ballot stuffing or hacking. These 2 are known for running fair elections.
1
Having lived 10 years in NoVa, I was well-aware of how important that region is to off-setting the extreme conservatives prevalent in places like Lynchburg. I was there when The Old Dominion, which once banned interracial marriage, elected the first African-American governor in the nation.
To it is VERY distressing to hear that Ralph Northam is, like Hillary Clinton in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, neglecting the area KEY to his election. Democrats need to start learning from the mistakes that flow from the top of the party, on down and stop repeating them.
3
By targeting Lynchburg I'm assuming you're referring to Jerry Falwell. While his way of thinking was very conservative and old-fashioned, his sons have loosened the reigns and have done great things for the city of Lynchburg and Liberty University students all around the world.
I agree entirely with Lynn in DC's comment about Northan's lackluster get-out-the-vote effort in northern Virginia:
"Maybe he is focusing his efforts on Richmond, Hampton Roads and other areas..."
Another vote in northern Virginia counts just as much as another vote in Richmond or Hampton Roads -- and another vote in northern Virginia is much more likely to result from a get-out-the-vote effort in northern Virginia than from a get-out-the-vote effort in Richmond or Hampton Roads.
If what Lynn in DC reports is accurate -- and I have no reason to doubt her -- one wonders exactly what Northam is thinking here, or even WHETHER Northam is thinking here. Hillary won VA by 5 points, and so Northam may just figure a victory is in the bag. But if he has any doubts at all, sending get-out-the-vote door-knockers to Richmond or Hampton Roads, rather than to northern Virginia, may not be the wisest strategy.
3
I'm of the inclination that says one's real grievances are likely to be proportional to the degree to which you walk the walk, not talk the talk. That goes not just in regards to voting but also organizing, boycotts, demonstrations, and other non-electoral activities.
Talk the talk or walk the walk? The election will come down to whether people merely complain the complaint or vote the vote. In recent decades, the more conservative voters have tended to show up more than liberal voters. That is a major reason the 2016 elections turned out the way they did.
4
Gillespie will win because he is strong with groups that vote more reliably and the Democrats have not put together a vigorous get out the vote effort. This is not difficult to figure out, but somehow the Democrats remain impervious to such insight.
Maybe they think if they lose enough this season, they will get better draft picks next season. Maybe they are just playing the wrong game.
5
Northam and the Democratic Party are doing very little to get the vote out. I live in Northern Virginia and haven't received any emails or calls about Tuesday's vote and how Northam needs every vote. I haven't even seen anyone from his campaign at public events or locations. Maybe he is focusing his efforts on Richmond, Hampton Roads and other areas but the lack of presence here is odd. No area should be written off or presumed to be a slam dunk. I am voting for him but this is a very lackluster campaign.
8
Polls say a Democrat has a lead? In light of the possible problems including poll error and Russian interference, and in light of the recent presidential election, that means it is time for the Democrats to put more focus on the race and start working even harder.
White working class voters in Virginia are backing Trump? That is not a reflection of the presidential election. The average annual income of Mr. Trump's white primary voters was relatively high, $72,000. In other words, the majority of his voters were not working class.
This points us to the underlying truth about Trump. We guessed at it before the election but know it now. The only consistent theme of this administration is its pandering to the racial resentment which Trump's voters believed was more important than economic anxiety.
15
Both parties are consuming their own and it seems the nationalists and those that pander to them come out on top. Hope against hope but the swamp thing will win . There no longer is a sense of direction in either party , both sides have factions that have bought into their own self destructive pipe dreams at any cost.The political systems are devolving fueled by anger despair and wrongheaded thinking .
2
Sorry, after the presidential election and the disastrously inaccurate polling, I put as much trust in them as I do the man who turned up in the oval office.
18
With all the talk of party "rigging" this week, it's interesting that the right wing media somehow failed to mention that Ed Gillespie didn't even have a primary when the party heads ( many of whom he hired ) crowned him the candidate for the US Senate.
Gillespie was chosen behind closed doors with NO input from the voters of Virginia.
Now THAT is what I call "RIGGED".
8
Polls gave Hillary the lead as well.
Don't count the chickens until they are hatched.
Need to ensure people get out and vote.
10
Please, please, PLEASE Vote. Nag your Family and Friends, actually drive them to VOTE. Best Wishes.
23
Please. You only want people with certain political views to get out and vote. Yours is no exhortation to general civic engagement.
3
Yet another race that shouldn't be close, but is anyway just because Democrats are obsessed with protecting illegal immigrants. Of course, it's easy to see why - that's a lot of potential Democrat voters in the future, plus it's always nice for the upper class to have cheap labor cut their lawns and clean their houses, isn't it? What a joke. We have Trump in the White House, and the best Democrats can do in a state that's gone blue three times is a narrow lead. Sheesh. Good luck Northam, I hope you win but I'm not holding my breath.
3
If you were running the Democratic Party, what would you do to change the message the democrats they represent. Seems easy to sit back and armchair quarterback. It seems that all Immigrants are being painted with the same brush, and that seems a little narrow minded. I've always been a proponent of a stricter Ellis island type holding for back ground check and inoculations, proper indoctrination (for lack of a better word) into our system(s) and customs.
As an independent I believe that society's and cultures evolve and change over time. We're supposed to have the combined knowledge of our forefathers, history has shown us that any government that takes from one sector of their society to give to another, or to blame the ineffectual government (like we have now) on people of color, or immigrants, or Mexicans.
This is what the GOP has been seeking to do for decades, to give the rich, the Uber rich, and corporations a flow of cash that they have never seen, soon we'll be living just like that, in a polluted wasteland, all because a few sold their souls for a promise that will never be filled, they will be no better off. States will squander tax money bidding on corporate jobs, like Amazon, tantamount to buying jobs, directing more money in tax breaks than they will collect in B/O taxes, just to create 15.00 dollar an hour warehouse jobs that a robot can't do YET. All while telling you Social Security is an entitlement (it isn't), that you're not worthy of an education etc.
3
You don’t think any rich Republicans like having cheap gardeners and maids?
3
Polls are good at looking back and (over)compensating for the last poll's missing factors, but new factors continue to emerge, including disdain for a president like none other.
Common wisdom says a close poll in Virginia favors Gillespie but that's crunching dated data, missing --because it remarkably hard to scientifically master--is the white educated voters who will vote against a Trump-like candidate -- or enthusiasm (anger) among minority groups that historically do not take part in primaries.
Seems to me Northam wins. (And everyone is surprised again.)
4
A lot of people seem to have no faith in Virginia Democrats turning out to vote, despite the fact that no Republican has won statewide office in years. This Fairfax County Democrat will be voting on Tuesday.
16
Totally unscientific view. Drove to and from Pittsburgh to Outer Banks last year and again last year. From WV border to Norfolk last year my election hopes were diminished by the countless trump signs on lawns throughout the state. This year, same route but it was rare to see a Gillespie sign and there were easily many more Northam signs posted in yards.
12
Hope you are right. Despite all the Trump signs you saw last year, Hillary Clinton still won the state by a fairly large margin.
1
The Virginia Democratic Party put forth an attack television ad portraying Mr. Gillespie as a racist. It showed immigrants being chased by a white supremacist in a truck. It was totally false and Mr. Gillespie is in no way a racist. The Democratic Party never apologized for this blatant false advertising and this could adversely affect their losing the election. Shame on them.
15
@WMK
I think more Democrats were appalled by that ad than their GOP counterparts. It really is bottom of the barrel politics. YES I want the DNC to fight- but fight with salient, cogent arguments- not low life fear mongering, that's simply ridiculous. Gender and Identity politics will be the sole reason for the splinter and fall of the Democratic party- which I expect to see happen by June of next year. How ironic to see the party who favors "gun control" shoot themselves in the foot...
2
I have seen this ad.
They didn't show Gillespie driving the truck.
Why are you lying so blatantly ? Is that all the team of lobbyist and crooked party insider Gillespie has ?
16
And, Gillespie put out an ad suggesting that Northam supported Central American gangs (https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gillespie-quietly...
So why is Gillespie putting out apparently racist ads?
21
I hope that I'm wrong, but I get the feeling that Gillespie is going to win this one. Northam is a dull candidate, flip-flopped on the issue of sanctuary cities and represents himself as another centrist Democrat. That is a losing formula and when you throw in the white nationalist/Trump vote, Gillespie, in my opinion, will pull this one out. Until the Democratic Party changes direction and starts to nominate more progressive candidates they will continue to lose.
8
Let's hope this poll is wrong.
3
Hey Nate, your column also told me Hillary would not lose to El Trumpo. So Virginia, get out and vote.
9
As the 2016 presidential election proved, polls do not indicate the actual winner. Every single poll showed Hillary Climton outperforming Donald Trump as the winner. We all know how that turned out.
3
We also know that it was the Electoral College, and not the popular vote that gave Trump the win.
2
Yes, Hillary won Virginia by 5 points. That's how it turned out.
A profound majority of the Electoral College vote, that is.
Your side was unable to peel off more than one or two electors, after framing the issue as one of allowing Beelzebub to sit in the White House. Go home.
1
Haven’t we learned our lesson yet about polls? Why waste our time with them? But then again, what are Sundays for? Only 50 shopping days left til Christmas.
5
I'm a white Republican in WV and would never consider a candidate like the career lobbyist and DC insider Ed Gillespie. I support Joe Manchin precisely because he's not a party line guy who votes his conscience, not his designation.
We need to send our leaders in Washington a message in all 50 states that RNC chairmen and lobbyists have NO PLACE in OUR government.
6
After the debacle of the polls in the last election, I will believe them when the Democrat actually wins. If the Dems remain disengaged after what happened last time, shame on them if they don't go and vote.
2
I'm going to vote for Northam - but only after a full pot of coffee to get my energy up because Northam is really, really boring. His political positions are lost in the minutiae of unnecessary detail. Oh and also because I want to not comply with another potential GOP victory. However, it would be nice if the Dems would stop the retroactive Trump back-biting and work out clear, relatable policies that the public would actually LIKE to vote for.
14
If the Democrats lose this election, the real impact and symbolism of which will extend into 2018 and beyond, they should disband due to sheer incompetence. The fate of the republic is actually at stake, no hyperbole. Will they finally bring a gun to the gunfight?
4
I always consult the polls when I disagree with myself.
1
White working class voters supporting Gillespie who is using Trump style race baiting will be voting against their own interests as GOP again uses wedge issues to get power to enrich their corporate paymasters. White supremacy is as un American as you can get yet Bannon/Trump champion that crowd and hearing Trump regret he does not have dictatorial powers over justice dept and the FBI should terrify most citizens.
6
I sense here that Democrats are blaming themselves for Trump's win, and for any possibility of a Republican win in Virginia. It is just a simple fact that there are a lot of mindless, racist people out there who vote Republican. That's whose fault it is, not the Democrats.
Northam is an honorable man, Gillespie, by his ads, is not. Vote for Northam.
16
Northram is hiding his Lieutenant Governor, he does not care about black people, just wants their votes.
Well, since the polls give Northam a modest lead, it's pretty sure that Gillespie is going to win. If the polls projected a slam-dunk for Northam, you could bet the farm that Gillespie would run away with it.
Too bad the rustbelt Midwest can't get in on this vote.
5
Perhaps you could ask for a tad bit more of Putin's help; after all, he's got his own rust belt to contend with, with very much the same xenophobias.
3
DemocracyforAmerica repeats the self-defeating self-righteousness that suppressed turn out and elected Trump by slamming Northam for wobbling o0n sanctuary cities.
Mature political efficacy would understand that one issue is not sufficient to bolster the alt-right momentum Gillespie rides. Getting a candidate you can talk to and leverage in the future is far more powerful in fostering the public good than throwing an impotent tantrum. The sole impact of denouncing Northam for insufficient liberalism is to erode democracy for America!
7
DemocracyforAmerica may just be a front for Trump and the Republicans.
If Virginia Democrats are too disengaged to vote in this election, then I guess they will get what they deserve! It is appalling that these two candidates are virtually tied given the GOP's campaign tactics. Ugh.
31
There is no narrative under which career lobbyist and party insider Gillespie should win. He symbolizes everything 'angry America' allegedly stands for.
9
Gillespie will win. We haven't suffered enough yet.
10
I love how conservatives and Republicans use patriotism as a bludgeon towards Democrats and the left, then are silent when the President and his closest allies are caught colluding with a foreign government.
58
Hey Nate:
I miss you field goal analogy, you know the one that predicted Hill had a 80 to 90% chance to beat Trumpo right to the very end.
If past is prologue with your analysis, Gillespie will unfortunately win big.
5
Long shots win, especially when they get "help" from outside forces that the pollsters aren't privy to.
I just heard Northam interviewed on CNN. I am a Democrat, but I would vote for him only reluctantly. He epitomizes everything that voters hate about politicians. When asked a simple yes or no question he responded with a three minute reply straight from his memorized talking points that had nothing to do with the issue at hand.
In his case, I would vote for the party not the candidate. If the Deomcrats lose they should look to their candidate.
8
Hillary Clinton was winning the polls in Michigan, then the votes were cast and Bernie won.
6
Well ,I watched for years ,until this year , buses unloading at the travel centers on interstate 81 north. Buses with Mexico plates with about 70 or more non English speaking young males were going on I 81 for years 24/7.I read about some special contractors running this operation around the state department but I think the border crossing thing is just a joke and distraction.
1
Buses with Mexican plates are not allowed to cross the border so this sounds like a fib.
Sure they are, as are tractor trailers . There are regulations as to regions and amount of time they can run ,as with Canadian freight trucks .and not all buses transporting Mexican Nationals into the US are Mexico plates but they've been moving tens of thousands of immigrants for years ,its public knowledge and no it is not a fib.I'm a federally licensed driver and the buses go into the state of Virginia.
2
Not sure where you heard this, Mike. Maybe you can tell us, eh?
I surely hope that Northam wins, as he's the better candidate and hasn't pandered to the voters. On the flip side, I wish the democrats would cast a wider net and try to appeal to white, working class voters more effectively. The democrats have to distinguish themselves from the Republicans by adopting and advocating policies that deal with the gross income inequality that we face in this country. I want to hear from them more about health care for all, a higher minimum wage and a trust-busting approach to business. Believe me, white voters will align themselves more with the democrats if the democrats can wean themselves on the corporate elites and prove themselves to be the party of the common man. Democrats have to stand for something, and that something can't be rightist policies. Sanders gets it. I just hope other democrats follow his lead.
7
You think Sanders is more inclusive?
Oh, good grief.
7
Sanders gets it??? -- Sanders couldn't even get the Black and Latino vote.
3
N Smith so young know why Bernie didn’t get the black vote? The black congressional caucus went to bat for Hillary canvassing church to barber shop to town hall. Their PAC funded their campaign yes Black congressional caucus PAC. Eric holder too aired an ad it two. They basically made sure that no one in the south starting from South Carolina wouid vote for Bernie. these are our elected officials who took time over the weekend to visit southern black communities to tell them don’t vote for Bernie who is he, does he even believe in Jesus Christ.
Thankfully Bernie drew many African American supporters all over the country especially in Michigan and Illinois breaking the notion that black people only vote for the Clintons who are a household name.
Same goes for Hispanics. Latino celebrities (except George Lopez who remained Bernie’s fan) came out in droves to campaign for Hillary. Star power. Poor Bernie a nobody small fry, stood no chance against these mega celebrities.
1
Turnout is the name of the game, and I have never seen Democrats so charged up for a state election. If Democrats turnout as I think they will, I don’t see Gillespie winning.
5
Gillespie seems a clear bet to get the white supremist vote. Rally the Trump vote? What does that mean, the mean spirited bigots or the plutocrat tax cuts for the already wealthy greed mongers? Since Trump managed to get the white populist anger and the wealthy easy street crowd. The Democrats realize now that immigration is a truly dangerous issue. Hillary Clinton made a liberal immigration policy one of her main platforms and we see the wreckage that left for the Democrats.
3
The first thing to remember is that the Republican party is now officially the party of Trump, since he has so effectively co-opted it in every which way and form.
Proof enough of that is that there are so few Republicans who have the wherewithal to stand up against him for fear of a withering counter-attack by either him, or his legions of supporters who haven't quite figured out yet just how dangerous he and his administration is.
That said, Democrats have every reason to be skeptical when it comes to polls that speak of them having a lead.
And so does the rest of the country.
10
The deciding factor in the Virginia Race might well be Donna Brazile and Bernie Sanders, as the Left Wing of the Democratic Party once again tries to tear it apart over their own self-interests.
29
You think progressives should just forgive and forget the highly unethical, though technically not illegal, acts of Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the Clinton campaign? That we should just shrug our shoulders when Perez purges Sanders/Ellison supporters from committees and replaces them with people from the Clinton wing of the party?
I held my nose and voted for Clinton. But I can understand why other progressives would be hesitant to vote for a party that takes their votes for granted while showering them with contempt.
10
If someone protests party politics by voting for a lobbyist RNC chariman over Northam, who is successful physician and true political outsider, there is truly no hope for them.
10
FDR: Social Security
LBJ: Medicare, Medicaid
..."their own self-interests"...
2
Relatives in south western Virginia are not keen on Northam; the poor, southern counties voted overwhelmingly for Perriello, candidate endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
Additionally, poor people are concerned with the MS13 gangs popping up in Danville and nearby towns. The people need jobs and hope in the southern counties; the northern elites who want their illegal immigrant maids are doing just fine.
No help, no hope for the poor folks and the scant middle class in the southern counties: my folks.
15
Only Bernie Sanders and Liz Warren are the spokespersons for poor and working class people. The rest of the democrats are beholden to big money, those who raise mega funds for their re election bids.
5
Anybody with any awareness of the state of American politics knows full well that money is always the name of the game -- why else would Sanders run as a Democratic candidate without actually being one?
7
If "poor people," in Virgina are obsessed with MS13 and "illegal immigrant maids," it's because Ed Gillespie's been running ads built on part-truths and plain old lies.
And if Bernie or Liz Warren have ever done anything for poor folks that comes close to S-CHIP, a program whose funding runs out next month because self-appointed guardians of the revolution helped depress voter turnout, I'd sure like toknow what it is.
5
I don't want to hear about another poll for the rest of my life.
53
You don't have to. We don't vote via polls; we vote via the ballot box.
1
Many deomcrats I know here are voting for Gillespie, but won't readily admit it. The driving factor here, is immigration and its impact on schools. We've been swamped with illegals here in northern Virginia which has filled classrooms, drained funds for ESL and other services, and led to increased gang disturbances in the schools. Northam will bring more here, which is why these democrats are voting for Gillespie. Like it or not, Gillespie has struck a chord here with his promise not to make Virginia a sanctuary state. Its working.
39
One wonders how having more "illegals," in classrooms takes away funding for "ESL and other services," or would if the bit about the tidal wave of illegals were remotely true.
I mean, immigration's been way down for years, Trump swears he fixed all that, there are no sanctuary cities in Virginia, but go right on ahead.
4
My Republican friends are tired of the lobbyists and party insiders like Gillespie and can't even hold their nose to vote for him.
Some think they have a better chance with Northam, but are afraid to say so publicly for fear of reprisal.
1
Thank you for this comment. It's not pretty, but it delivers a measured perspective as to why things might be unfolding the way they are. I don't necessarily agree that Northam will bring more immigrants to Northern VA (that's probably economic drivers) or that they will increase crime (doesn't seem to hold true and is probably a bigoted assertion). But the discomfort with a changing local demographic is key.
The Democrats have sort of painted themselves into a corner as champions of diversity; they don't vocally address the challenges of integration, legality, or the gritty reality of discomfort with difference. And they must, sensibly, if they are to counter Republican dog whistles.
2
Virginians, have you had your coffee this morning? If you have had your cup then there is no reason for I to say: "Wake up and smell the coffee!' We are at a moment in our history that is screaming for immediate action to reject divisive politics which is driving our nation into the gutter. Vote your conscience.
8
Your fellows could stop referring to Republican pitchforks and torches. I mean, it's a nice, comfortable, virtue-signalling image, but not particularly good for elevating the discourse.
1
Talk the talk or walk the walk? The election will come down to whether people merely complain the complaint or vote the vote. In recent decades, the more conservative voters have tended to show up more than liberal voters. That is a major reason the 2016 elections turned out the way they did.
I'm of the inclination that says one's real grievances are likely to be proportional to the degree to which you walk the walk, not talk the talk. That goes not just in regards to voting but also organizing, boycotts, demonstrations, and other non-electoral activities.
3
Oh, how I hope our pollsters are correct this time around. We need to pick up or at least maintain our Democratic governors, preferably gain. (New Jersey next?) So much is at stake now with Trump's intrusion on our states' rights. Please, Virginians, we need you now. Please vote Northam. And, Mr. Northam, please canvas your state, even the conservative areas, to send your message loudly and clearly!
21
I hope Donna Brazile’s book helps to purge our party of everything Clinton.
Education send to be the main dividing force between the two. This fact alone speaks for itself.
4
yllasyram,
Your comment assumes that education necessarily means superior judgment and common sense. I don't think all those high school only-educated unionized voters for Trump would take kindly to such an arrogant view. Nor is the Democratic Party likely to get them back if your view prevails among Democrats going forward.
3
Regardless of who wins, Trump is still president.
The governorship of VA has zero relevance to anyone not living in VA.
I don't understand the preoccupation with this.
6
Most the Confederate monuments were put up in the 20th century as assertive statements by racists. Even Lee himself during his time opposed them as being divisive. Perhaps the people who wish to honor Lee should do so by heeding his prescient warning.
4
My understanding is the "Democrat" mostly voted for Republicans in the past. I don't think voters will be fooled.
4
The statistics I am most interested in are...
How many voters are turned away from the polls by dirty tricks?
How many eligible voters do not vote?
6
The only poll that counts is the vote count. Let's hope the process is not undermined by suppression, electronic manipulation, and fraud.
5
What is really needed is a get out and vote campaign for the Democrats. Typical democratic voters talk passionately, but don't vote.
3
If voter turnout is high Democrats will win easily.
4
Women, vote and vote Democratic, your lives may depend on it. African Americans and Latinos, vote Democratic, your lives do depend on it. Vote.
84
Fortunately, none among us has lost a sense of perspective.
1
This race should not even be close -- if the democrats don't get their act together they are not going to be in a place to win the seats they need for the all important 2020 elections. Stop watching MSMBC ! Those people are in a bubble
... no matter what Trump does (or not) the economy is going to improve ... and he will get the credit. It's the economy stupid .. I predict he is going to get a few things done .. and thats all he needs.
Wake up Dem's!
4
And we have the Hypocrite-In-Chief injecting his worthless two cents into the race talking about Gillespie restoring "our heritage", referring to keeping confederate statues up, while Trump is using the office of the president to do away with National Monuments so companies can start drilling on the land. Doesn't really sound like Trump is concerned about any heritage, just where he can rouse up the emotions of his brainless base!
6
Yes Virginia, Donald is not Santa Claus.
4
So does this NYTimes/Sienna poll take into account GOP organized voter? Virginia may not be as bad statewide as say North Carolina or Kansas. But voter suppression, mostly of black and brown voters, in a few counties could very well matter to the outcome.
It’s an important question for the Times to address, since not addressing such questions lead this same New York Times poll analyst (Cohn) to predict Hillary Clinton had an 84% chance of winning the presidency. Vote suppression was very real, in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Now, yes, in the case of Hillary Clinton’s loss there were other factors the Times ignored; the big one was campaign Clinton taking 5 close states for granted. 4 of those states Obama had won twice. His campaigns put a huge amount of work and money into making sure voters voted, were registered, knew where to vote, etc. Not Hillary2016. And of course Obama won Ohio and Iowa, while Hillary didn’t, that’s state 6 and 7.
3
I really have to get over my stunned amazement at the poor reading skills and general ignorance of a lot of these comments.
1. Polls and analyses that tell you Donald Trump has a 10-20% chance of winning and clearly lay out margins of errors are not bad polls and analyses because Donald Trump scraped out a victory.
2. A column that dives into the bits and pieces of an election is not a "Marxist," or a "biased," or even a "left-leaning phony argument," because you didn't trouble yourself to read the whole darn thing and figure out what was being said.
3. It's abysmal to cite events in Charlottesville--Nazis marching down the street with torches screaming at Jews ring a bell? Killing somebody draw your attention?--and then go off about the whole thing was Antifa, so hands off my statues of Nathan Bedford Forrest and my shabby pride in a made-up history.
4. It's kind of dippy to sneer "because Trump was a political novice and Democrats howled but so is Northam what hypocrites," when Northam graduated VMI, got an MD, served as an Army officer, was elected to State senate, and currently is Lieutenant Governor.
What is the matter with you people?
12
Don't fret. Republicans will steal if.
1
Virginians - please get out & vote!
5
Virginia Democrats... tell us, what can we do to help you WIN this race?
4
Once you'e out of Northern Virginia, Charlottesville and a few other areas, the white folks are Trump folks. Southwest Virginia might as well be in West Virginia or Tennessee.
1
The Republican wins. Voting GOP in many circles has a stigma attached to it so people lie and say they're voting for the Democrat. It won't be a big victory but it won't be that close. People lied about voting for Trump too. If everyone who said they didn't vote for him didn't we wouldn't be living through this horror show today.
5
Troubling numbers, as the Dems have given up on the working class to the Republicans. What kind of" Party of the Left " is this?
7
Northam is the same guy who voted for Bush not once but twice, really makes you think why Democrats in VA picked this guy over Perriello. The fact that he voted for Bush in 2004 when the country was in absolute shamble should've been enough to disqualify him.
Northam, in addition to being a Bush voter, takes huge donations from some of the biggest utilities in VA and he thusly supports two controversial pipelines. In the areas where these pipelines would run (such as Nelson and Buckingham County) Perriello rocked Northam. But the disconnected consultant class with their donations from Dominion/Appalachian Power, Beer and Wine wholesalers, Big Tobacco, and Telecom is larger in number in VA than the progressive movement.
Apparently people have forgotten Northam's multiple deciding votes to allow predatory lenders to freely operate in Virginia, to damage unions, and to give corporations whatever they want.
Voting for Northam next Tuesday feels a lot like voting for Hillary last year.
All those "Bernie Bros" and third party voters Democrats whine about would gladly support the Democratic Party if someone like Perriello had been given a chance. A real liberal, with an actual leftist platform, not some center-right, neoliberal, corporate sell-out like Northam we're expected to adore.
The Democrats are unsalvageable.
Obama, Clinton, and Kaine backed Terry-corrupt-McAuliffe-buddy Northam over Perriello.
I hope progressives send a message by refusing to vote for this shill.
12
And then the progressive message would be "We prefer republicans". When you don't vote in protest, you hand your power over to others. You are not teaching anyone anything other than you can safely be ignored.
6
If that's the case, Northam should lose. It is his kind, and his supporters and mentors that are the problem for this country.
Say what you will about the GOP, and you can say so much, with a president like the one that got elected. But they atleast don't pretend to be on the middle class and poor's side. The DNC pretends to be, and betrays them regularly.
4
Agree with many of your points, but your conclusion is exactly why we ended up with Trump.
Sorry, but people have to come out and vote for Northam and AGAINST the Republican Trump Lite, Gillespie!
11
Populism is a wave taking the world as we have seen recently in the US with Trump and in Europe with Brexit and several european countries as well.
Fear, sometime justified with terrorist attacks, feeling left behind with globalism, melancholy of the past, etc...have been a catalyst for populist ideas. Unfortunately it might take a full generation to overcome this backward trend.
2
"If Mr. Gillespie prevails or runs well ahead of Mr. Trump, it might be interpreted as a sign that establishment Republicans can ... lure white working-class Trump supporters with his message on race and immigration..."
Portraying the GOPs possible pitch to whites as "his message on race and immigration" downplays the reality of Trump's dog whistles and efforts to change national policy. It makes his overt appeal to racism sound benign: "his message on race," as though there is no significant racist content to his words, ideas, and fumbled attempts at enacting policy.
It is helpful to look at the demographics behind different voting trends, but when you present white supremacist appeals as a no more than a "message on race," you fall into the trap that there are good points on both sides, that both sides have legitimate viewpoints.
2
Ah, the "very fine people on both sides" argument.
1
Correct. Because only you have legitimate viewpoints.
1
And polls are never wrong.
5
By now, we all know how polling is completely misleading and in fact, any polling represses voting.
1
Democrats need a message other than ' we all hate Trump, right?' For now it is all recycled generics that lack any zing and don't provide any motivation for their core constituency to go vote. If the Gillespie wins it will be the ultimate wake up call to the party that they are wandering in the desert without direction or a leader.
7
We Republicans won with "lock her up". Don't underestimate its power.
1
The polling data is frightening to me. The polarization of Virginia across ethnic and educational attainment lines indicates that white without a college degree are increasingly angry at college educated white and peoples of color.
Clearly, the policies of Democrats should be focused on lifting all boats. Less identity politics and more economic policies. The Democrats should consider adopting some of the policies that Trump ran on that appealed to his base but he and the GOP have abandoned: massive infrastructure spending, a border adjustment tax, eliminating the carry forward tax benefit for hedge fund managers. Democrats should highlight what Trump said he would do and how he has betrayed the very people whose support brought him to power.
3
We already learned last November that polls don't matter.
Xenophobes, racists, retrogrades and Trumpers don't answer respond to polls or they respond dishonestly.
What's needed is massive voter turnout and a stunning ground game on Election Day.
Ralph Northam is an an Army veteran, the Lieutenant Governor, a pediatric neurologist and a moderate guy with good public policy ideas.
Ed Gillespie is a career Republican lobbyist who spent his entire career propping up corporate profiteers and Robber Barons.
His lobbying firm Quinn Gillespie & Associates was one of the most powerful lobbying firms in the US.
One of the firm's clients was Enron, which paid it $1,225,000, including $700,000 to lobby the Department of Energy and the Executive Office of the President to resist efforts to re-regulate the western electricity market during the California Electricity Crisis.
Gillespie has said that he was unaware of Enron's deceptive accounting practices....but Gillespie WAS aware that Enron's checks to his lobbying firm cleared his bank account.
Northram is the superior candidate.
Gillespie is a vote against the public's interests.
Don't fall into the Gillespie sinkhole, independent Virginia voters.
161
I'm sure all you say is true, Socrates -- but Trump voters are way past rationality.
2
Thank you so much, Socrates. Prospects of a possible Gillespie win are terrifying. God, guns and religion still dominate Richmond. Near Charlottesville we are surrounded by people who believe in magic in the sky. I got banned from the local news chat apps for saying as much. It's terrible.
2
Excellent points. However, polls may not be accurate indicators for entirely different reasons. We need a deep dive to understand how polls work and how they can be cooked as well as a iron-clad process to secure the vote from the possibility of computerized vote theft. In September, Virginia decertified its most hackable voting machines. In September, the VA Dept. of Elections supervisors instructed 22 localities to abandon their existing machines **IMMEDIATELY**, citing risks inherent in the way they record votes. Let's hope they acted.
http://www.npr.org/2017/09/25/553532503/virginia-election-serves-as-firs...
Donald Trump Warned of a 'Rigged' Election, Was He Right?
http://www.mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-warned-of-a-rigged-election-wa...
2016 Presidential Election Table
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table
1
The Democrats seem to not be in the news enough. All I ever hear from them are solicitations for donations. I want them to be in the news and on the streets and be highly visible. A "tight race" is not an indicator of the Democrats winning. They have to have a big lead in order to pull off this election!
59
I am curious about something I noticed about this poll. Why is there a category only for "Whites without a college degree"? Basically the implication us that Asians, Blacks, Hispanics without a degree don't matter to either party. There lies the reason Democrats can't win. They do nothing for the poor, while the Republicans actively harm the poor and peel off poor whites by stirring up racial animosity towards the other impoverished groups. Democrats should do something about poverty, and start winning again.
59
It's a fair point, though the actual reason, I suspect, is that you don't see the same splits between degreed and undegereed people of color that you do among the white population.
And while we're being so censorious and all, has it occurred that you just assumed that people of color are all in poverty?
5
I think it is because poor whites seem to be be the most vulnerable to the Mercer/Bannon/Hannity/Putin brainwashing system, which has resulted in a uniquely illogical block of voters.
4
Corbin.....Asians, Blacks, Hispanics without a degree vote Democratic because they can't be duped into voting against their own economic interests by white-spite dog whistles the way whites without a degree can.
Asians, Blacks and Hispanics also understand that the Democrats do good things for society, such as the ACA, supporting reasonable regulation and implementing higher minimum wages.
Republicans drove the 2008 economy over a cliff; Democrats drove the economy to its current prosperity.
Democrats have helped, but Republican hate Trumps reality.
11
Just remember: the GOP always has a 5-to-10% poll handicap.
So if you want the Democrat to win (and you do), vote.
111
Actually, the voting advantage of the Republicans over Democrats is 3-4%, not 5-10%. But, your point is well taken. Virginia Democrats need to show up on Tuesday.
2
Please, please, please Virginians, protect this country and our Democracy.
If you are really paying attention and getting legitimate news sources and researching what your hearing and reading you should be voting for Northam!
ANYONE supporting Trump should not be in public service. They are not Republicans and are going to destroy everything that this country is about.
I never thought the American people would be so gullible.
95
I live in northern Virginia.
Gillespie has run a foul, fear-stoking racist campaign that has shocked many people - fear-mongering against blacks, Hispanics and Asians, racism worse than the notorious Willie Horton ad. Gillespie was previously a typical GOP conservative, not the lunatic persona he's presenting now. His campaign has been shameful.
OTOH Ralph Northam has run one of the weakest campaigns I've ever seen in this state. Boring, milk-toasty, a complete failure to address relevant issues, the person being presented in his political ads looks like he couldn't manage a bake sale. Everyone I know including me is praying Northam will win. Not that he deserves to win after the horrible completely ineffective campaign he's run. But hopefully Northam will win because people see the racist fear-mongering nightmare that's the Gillespie candidacy and say OMG NO! But that was HRC's campaign strategy against Trump and see how that turned out...
126
Not enough shrieking, pie-in-the-sky, and posturing from Northam, I take it.
2
Yes, but please remember that HRC did win the popular vote.
3
Gosh, that is classic. A foul, lying racist Republican who promises banning sanctuary cities, a move that might attract broke and worried lower and middle class white male Democrats, particularly in construction, and a weak Democratic campaign that wouldn't dare offend the moneyed interests. All we need now is to hear that he supports black lives matter and right to work laws.
That white, working class voters still support Trump by a 48% margin means that they have to be living in a different reality zone. Trump’s constant lies, his bullying, his incompetence, his campaign’s now proven collusion with a hostile foreign power, and his general boorishness all seems to evade his supporters’ senses. Far more than Trump’s shortcomings, this phenomenon of mass denial, consistent with the behavior seen in cults, is what threatens to doom this democracy.
148
Unfortunately, it seems that white, working class voters will continue to support him as long as he continues to be against minorities.
4
As long as Fox and Friends (the Murdochs) continue to feed the poorly educated dried out straw masquerading as journalistic gold.
5
When people lie about their preferences polls are biased by systemic error and fail to predict the outcome. To the extent that supporting a trumpist candidate amounts to a confession of ignorance, racism and resentment, one must expect polls to have a large systemic error. At this stage of the game for many folks, supporting the Immoral Narcissist is, like any act of depravity, best done in private.
15
Hillary has over 85% expectation of winning! Clinton in a landslide! Obviously!
22
The polls didn't take into consideration the Putin factor.
The anti-Clinton social media fake news and the collusion that took place probably ended up costing her the election.
1
Ted, ah, so the blame has switched from Comey to Putin? You do realize that people in PA, MI and WI did not care about either. Hillary was just not authentic, she was a poor candidate and people knew it, they let her know. Congress can spend all their time investigating why Hillary lost but all you have to do is ask the simple folks of these battle ground states. No fancy schmancy statistics needed.
5
Why anybody believes polls today mystifies me. They have been wrong over and over and OVER.
Clearly in the modern age -- smartphones, etc. -- polls fail to be able to get accurate results from their normal information gathering and questionnaires. Worse -- the pollsters let their own feelings and beliefs color both the questions and methodologies used, to "massage" the results to what the pollster wants to see.
3
I live in Virginia.
The Republican candidate Ed Gillespie has run Willie Horton level ads.
And the Washington Post has done a good job showing these are blatant attack lies.
Yes, the media lets us down, as they did with Trump, in not exposing this disgusting set of lies from the Right Wing, the Russians, etc.
Michelle Obama has said we should go high when they go low. Sorry, that doesn't work if the media ignores the "low".
47
New York Times' predictions on who will win is also highly reminiscent of last year's presidential election too.
Virginians are voting for Gillespie for governor this year and Corey Stewart for senate next year.
1
Why is it only white people are divided and studied by education and class? How come we never hear how black working class voters, Hispanic or Asian non-college educated working class voters vote compared to those who have had a college education in their respective races/ethnicities? And last year, during the run-up to the election, the phrases “low-educated” or “less educated” as well as “working class” were only and exclusively used in reference to white people, never to black people, Asian people, or Hispanics. Are all these non-white people highly educated, non-working class or something?
Seriously, these phrases, since they are exclusively used to refer to white people, are racially motivated, and are meant to belittle them, just as they are meant to humble, humiliate, and shame them. No wonder Mrs. Clinton, whose campaign used these phrases all the time, lost the election. And as long as the Democrats continue along this path, things are just going to get worse for them, as more white folks begin to ponder, as I have here, why they are they only ones who receive this treatment, and begin to fight back against this very overt racism against them!
19
Perhaps because there is no statistical difference between educated and non educated non-whites, they haven't been displayed in the graph. This is a long way from claiming 'overt racism' against whites.
4
This is because there is no real difference with the other demographics. If 90% of African Americans are voting democratic, what is the point to study the break down?
In other situations when it does make sense, the differences are investigated.
3
RichD, have you considered that the 'white' group is generally far larger than the others, and may have different issues? The business model for pollsters is to correctly predict results. It may not be meaningful to look at the smaller subset of Blacks, for example, by education level (which is a proxy for income level), because Blacks may have other issues that make them a far more cohesive voting block than all white people.
Whites, on the other hand, until recently, don't seem to have had racial or ethnic identity as such a strong discriminator of opinion; income differences seem to make a larger difference between them. Poorer white people may feel quite differently about things than rich white people. Since education levels are a proxy for income differences, and since there are so many more of them it is worth while for the pollsters to look at them as separate groups that can be targeted differently for advertising etc.
You feel strongly about the labels the pollsters put on groups, and I don't blame you. It would be worth your while to write to some of the polling companies, tell them that you are insulted by the labels, and ask them to re-think their method of naming and separating groups. You could write to those who commission the polls as well and tell them the same thing.
That would be a way for you personally to fight back where it counts.
If Gillespie loses, Virginia will just be another state to avoid if you want to be safe from car jackings, muggings, home invasions, robberies etc.
3
Why? Crime is actually lower in high immigration areas, if that is what you are pointing at.
3
Don't worry, if Gillespie wins, no one will want to go to Virginia.
4
I don’t get how Republicans have supposedly performed badly in special elections in Trump Era when they’ve won all of the major races.
Anyway this educated black guy in Northern Virginia will be voting for Gillespie.
5
Democrats who refrain from voting put Republicans in office.
146
ANYBODY who refrains from voting puts Republicans in office.
2
So please, stay home, don't vote, and thereby contribute mightily to the quality of government
2
Can Virginians count on a safe and secure voting system? A secure and verifiable vote counting process?
Laughing Their Ossoff: Did Computer-Aided Fraud Play A Role In Georgia's Special Election Upset?
https://www.mintpressnews.com/laughing-their-ossoff-did-computer-aided-f...
How Hackers Broke Into U.S. Voting Machines in Less Than...
http://fortune.com/2017/07/31/defcon-hackers-us-voting-machines
The Insecurity of America's Old and Underfunded Voting Systems
www.npr.org/programs/fresh-air/2017/07/20/538312289/fresh-air-for-july-2...
Democrats are not typically very effective at getting out the vote... I hope we have some smart, articulate, persuasive, persistent Democrats in Virginia working hard to make this win happen.
6
After last November, I can't say is I trust any poll associated with the New York Times. I realize this is a poll, not a prediction, but it's still a probability of win/lose.
When Trump announced his candidacy, I immediately feared the worst, giving I lived through Reagan. NYT data lulled me into a very false sense of security. Many of us were given false hope, and that will not soon be forgotten.
10
The NYT and all lefty media made a strategic error -- one they regret now, but seem not to change their strategy anyways! -- that if they pushed Hillary relentlessly with the story that "she cannot ever lose" -- the right wing and Trumpsters would all simply give up, seeing they were facing a landslide loss and humiliation.
They figured that discouraged conservatives would simply stay home. They were wrong.
In fact, their arrogance told a lot of voters -- especially the young, Bernie Bros and blacks -- that Hillary was so sure to win, that THEIR VOTES WERE UNNECESSARY. So any voters who were not gung ho on HIllary simply sat this one out. Or made a "symbolic" vote for Jill Stein.
Arrogance always comes before a fall.
3
Virginians, please be clear about two things:
1. If Gillespie wins, his campaign of fear will be copied by Republicans nationwide. This will damage the whole country even more than Trump already has. We non-Virginians can't vote in your election, but in a very real sense, our future is in your hands.
2. If Gillespie wins, you'll have radical North Carolina-style voter suppression laws by springtime. You might be too bored, uninspired, or alienated to vote this time. But next time you may not be given the choice.
92
Polling completely discredited after 2016 election. Ignore them.
3
I seem to remember polls last November not doing so well. We already had Edsall's hack job on Gillespie earlier in the week, so this effort seems superfluous.
3
Good heavens. After what happened a year ago, I'm surprised anyone would put much stock in such polls. The only poll that matters: the one on election day. Get out and vote, Virginians!
55
Anyone who has a memory good enough to recall last November's election will remember how reliable were the pre-election polls.
It will be unfortunate if the Democratic candidate wins by only 3 percent of the vote. That means that a vast minority of Virginians still believe the Republican Party's hokus-pokus even after almost a year of Trump and the Republican lead Congress. How sad!
5
Democrats, liberals and progressives (or whatever they are calling themselves today) went berserk when a man with no political experience was elected president last year. Now that a Virginian with a similar lack of political background is being touted by the left as the best thing since sliced bread. As usual, one set of rules to judge Republicans, and no rules to judge Democrats. The hypocrisy on the left is amazing, but not unexpected.
7
Kind like the dishonesty of the right, amazing but not unexpected.
1
Trump's lack of political experience was not the reason Democrats went "berserk" over his victory. Nice try though.
4
Regardless of the winner in Virginia's governor race, way too much will be read into the result. Virginia is not a microcosm of America. No state is.
9
The polls showed Hillary Clinton with a lead over Donald Trump couple of days before the election. Democrats have to be weary of polls. The outcome is what matters, and not the polls.
4
The "polls" showed Hillary with a commanding, unassailable lead -- in the Electoral College too! -- as late as ELECTION DAY. I know -- I was reading here daily. They had a little "meter" graphic on the front page. It said "Hillary has a 95% chance of victory".
The same Nate Cohn has apparently forgotten that he predicted Hillary had an "unassailable LOCK on the Electoral College" -- no matter how many popular votes Trump got. Go back and search his archive -- this was about 10 days prior to the election.
3
What lead? A 3% difference with 17% undecided means nothing. See: 2016 election.
6
The average person who goes to work every day and tries to stay ahead of the bills in general supports a lot of what Trump says and is not helped by the policies pushed by the Democrats in the areas of immigration an health care.
5
Yeah, healthcare for anybody but the wealthy is overrated.
4
This will be won by getting out the vote, not polls. Voters need to understand how important getting someone in office that can speak up against Mr. Trump. They should know the Republicans want to deny them the State and Local Tax deductions and how it will cost them. The Republican race baiting is indicative of their weak platform and regressive ideas. Virginia has a world ranked state University, but Republicans don't like education and will attack that institution.
5
Oh joy ... And we all recall how very reliable polls are. Until their track record improves, I'm betting on the Republican.
3
The independents are where these elections are won. The independents are in a dead heat, according to the chart. And in the risk shift of the election booth, they'll shift right and give the win to the GOP. Just watch the exit polls on Tuesday.
Once again, the scuttlebutt in the press does the Democrats little good. There are reasons why Mr. Trump constantly brings up Hilary Clinton. (Look how long he stuck to his birth screed against Mr. Obama.) He's constantly campaigning. He relentlessly divides and never unites. By comparison, Mr. Pence sounds like a moderate.
3
However this turns out, the Dems have clear evidence of their incapacity to convincingly put real issues and real programs to solve them in voters’ minds. It’s just another Trump or anti-Trump dismal do-nothing brouhaha.
5
"Republicans [might] excel by embracing Mr. Trump’s message. According to this view, they could lure white working-class Trump supporters with his message on race and immigration, while maintaining greater support among well-educated voters with their establishment-friendly credentials and tone."
Isn't that called speaking out of both sides of your mouth?
The irony in all of this is that working class people who have traditionally voted Republican, have voted people into office that do little to help them but instead favor corporate and wall street interests that have in many cases literally pushed them out of the job market, house and home. They are repeating the same mistake with "Republican" candidates of a different stripe. The outcome will be the same or more likely, worse.
2
Northam's statement on sanctuary cities is a meaningless concession to voters who won't vote for him, and a symbolic slap in the face to potential Democratic voters who may now stay home in a tight race. I hope he wins, but, if he loses, I hope (but doubt) that Democrats will take the lesson---offered for the umpteenth time---that you can't win by out-GOPing the GOP.
4
As a Virginian, I can tell you this voter, and literally every voter I know - both Democrat AND Republican - could not care less about Northam’s sanctuary city comments. Instead, the overwhelming talk I’m hearing from voters of both sides of the aisle is what a racist, desperate, despicable campaign the entire GOP ticket has run. The fact Bannon and Trump have campaigned for them, and the three GOP candidates have embraced Trump/Bannon tactics, has turned off everyone I know. My Republican friends have no intention of voting for Gillespie and have no problem admitting they’re voting for Northam.
5
I hope JMBY is correct, but the same Trump, supposedly vilified today, came closer than expected to winning VA despite Kaine's presence on the ticket, and Senator Warner squeaked out a win against Gillepsie in 2014, with a very tight result that surprised many Democrats who didn't see this as a threatened seat. Polls today suggest the race is tight as Cohn's column explains. Of course, if no one is listening to Northam's sanctuary city comments, I wonder why he stuck his neck out on that issue, of little practical importance in Virginia.
The Dems need to clue into ditching their most strident policies like 'sanctuary cities'. As a long standing Democrat, I don't agree that sanctuary cities are the answer. If you don't agree with the law, work to change the laws and guest worker policies. Otherwise, it just looks like the Dems are aiding and abetting and throws the baby out with the bath water.
11
Democratic policies on illegal immigration, borders, amnesty, DACA, etc. lead directly to their defeat and disempowerment.
Yet they refuse to reconsider.
3
The Poll gives the Democrat a slight lead! Therefore, the Republican will win! He or she who doesn't learn from relatively recent history, is condemned to repeat it...
9
The article says, "Even if Mr. Gillespie loses by a small margin, his campaign could be judged a success, given national political conditions and Virginia’s Democratic lean."
What kind of magical thinking is this? You win or you lose. Let's hope Mr. Gillespie loses by any margin. WE THE PEOPLE do not need another Con Don/Robber Baron operative.
8
The outcome of this race could reflect the mood of the country since last fall's election. The president has pushed America rightward into isolation from the world, opting to be a shell rather than a main player in global affairs. His nationalist approach is the what strengthens his base, especially in southwestern Virginia where Ed Gillespie will have a huge advantage over Ralph Northam who needs strong support in Northern Virginia and in the states's Tidewater region. Last year, the polls predicted that Secretary Clinton would win the White House and we all know what happened. In a real sense, Tuesday's outcome in Virginia will be a report card on the president's first year in office. He may not be terribly popular in Virginia but the MS-13 issue is a really about foreigners and immigration, an issue that Gillespie hopes connects with rural Virginia voters.
6
Northam realized that he needed to address issues that were important to his constituents, such as banning sanctuary cities.
While I don't agree with him on that, I think the Democrats should learn from this: Not weighing in on issues important to voters won't get Democrats elected.
60
If Democrats need to adopt Republican causes to win, they might as well just become Republicans, and we'll be a one-party nation.
2
Wouldn't it be nice if VIrginians simply assumed the legitimacy of the 14th Amendment equal protection clause and then voted on the basis of the real issues – like reducing income and wealth inequality, making affordable healthcare available to everybody, restoring the franchise to all eligible citizens, and protecting democracy and democratic norms against mob rule?
118
You mean like New York and California have done? States with some of the highest inequality in the country, some of the most segregated housing and schools, California has the highest poverty rate in the country when cost of living is considered. To their credit both states have reduced the rate of uninsured, California is now about mid pack relative to the rest of the country.
3
Wouldn't it be nice if Democrats actually focused on healthcare and the economy; promoting the interests of middle and working class Americans instead of catering to the politically well connected, protecting illegal immigrants regardless of how they degrade the lives of people they claim to speak for and enfranchising convicted felons.
The democratic norm should not be to enable politically influenced lawless opportunism.
3
"equal protection under the law," the gist of the 14th amendment, does not mean socialism (i.e., reducing income inequality for its own sake, which makes no sense). It is that continued perversion of our Constitution's meaning that keeps getting Democrats in trouble with average voters who, although generally held in contempt by Democrats, actually have a better understanding of our Constitution and its intent.
2
The General Kelly statement on Robert E Lee has had its desired effect. It has brought energy to the white conservatives in rural Va. It has made the race for governor closer than it should have been.
I was among those that thought he would be a positive force for moderation in the extremist Trump presidency. I was wrong, he is apparently a right wing extremist himself.
204
Not only that.
Kelly went on TV to put down a congresswoman with false information. Afterwards, rejected to apologize.
ARROGANT!
INDECENT!
2
What does "rejected to apologize" mean? In English, I mean.
Hope every Virginia voter who is aware of Trump's failing presidency will go to vote on Tuesday.
Resistance includes voting out any pro-Trump candidate.
We must resist at each election.
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There are more "Deplorables" than "Resistors". At least among those that can be bothered to actually vote in states other than California.
6
And if you know anyone in Virginia, friends or family, give them and call and encourage them to vote.