ISIS, Squeezed on Two Sides, Loses Syrian City and Border Crossing

"Getting rid of a delusion makes us wiser than getting hold of a truth." ~ LUDWIG BORNE ISIL is ideological, not geographic. It cannot be defeated with guns and bombs, but with Ideas.

Iran is definitely a serious problem in the ME. Very expansionist. But, they have the protection of Russia and an incredibly stupid agreement with the West that ranks right up there with Neville Chamberlain's "Peace in our time" (60 Million died in WW II) and Bill Clinton's 1994 N. Korea accords. “This agreement will help to achieve a longstanding and vital American objective: an end to the threat of nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula.” http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=49319 (Yah, that has worked out SO well. How many millions will die this time?) When will the West learn that you cannot ever, ever, ever TRUST tinpot dictators when it comes to agreements, especially about Nukes? And, can you imagine why Iran is developing missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads? Or, that the UN inspectors are prevented from seeing Iran's military bases, just their supposed "only nuclear facilities"? Now, where do you suppose Iran will develop nuclear weapons capability? Perish the thought it would be where the UN can't inspect. Or, in concert with N. Korea. The West is desperate to avoid conflict and believe fairy tales. We could have taken out N. Korea's nuclear program in 1994 with minimal force just like Israel did to Saddam's budding nuclear ambitions by bombing their reactor. We wouldn't have a N. Korea problem now. We WILL have a nuclear-armed Iran in the near future (less than 5 years). Count on it. How many million deaths then?

The Islamic State is a guerrilla movement that moved up to the stage of seizing control of territory. The textbook next step for them is to move back into what they were, accepting that the territorial control did not work (yet). They would be well advised to evacuate now, rather than suffer as much loss as possible in slow inevitable crushing of their last territory. They don't need territory, they need people, that is what they are. I'd be watching for them to rather suddenly pull out and disappear back into the Maoist sea of the people. I hope they don't, because writing them down with the greatest possible loss making hopeless last stands is good for the US interest in destroying them, but really it would be stupid of them to do that. They've proven really nasty, but not stupid.

Syria? What Syria? That's so yesterday; let the Russians and the Iranians have it and pay for the reconstruction. We have a new sandbox to play in: Niger, where there are already 800 US military personnel on the ground and the air/drone was has just started. Yupee!

What portends the future of Syria and Iraq is not good. After the victory over ISIS in Iraq and Syria, what will happen? In Syria, the US will draw down resources and material support for the YPG Kurds and the Syrian Defense Force leaving them to be challenged by the Syrian Army backed by Russia and Iran. In Iraq, the Iraqi Army and its' Iranian backed Shia militias will wage war on the Kurds in Northern Iraq and the Sunnis in Western Iraq. The US will also draw down military support abandoning the Kurds. This will give way to the eventual take over of Syria, Iraq, and ultimately, Lebanon to establish a Shia arc of influence stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean Sea. Weaker nations and smaller nations in the region, Jordan and Kuwait will be challenged and perhaps targeted for domination by this new Iran, Iraq, Syria coalition. Gulf Staes of Bahrain, where there is a large Shia population challenging the rule of Sunni Sheik Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, backed by Iran, and Qatar, where the Emir, Tamin Al Thani, is moderate towards Iran, can easily fall under Iranian influence. The situation in Yemen is also of great concern where Iranian backed Houthi rebels have the upper hand further destabilizing the security of the Saudi penninsula. I sense that the Sunnis in the Middle East will have their hands full and perhaps align themselves with the Kurds (nost of whom are Sunni Muslims) to put up a united front against the growing Shia threat backed by Iran and Russia.

Both Trump and Putin have made the development of a credible strategy of dealing with a post-ISIS Syria and Iraq all but impossible. Putin is feeling his oats after his propaganda successes in the US and the EU, and now with the survival of Assad and his military. Even if Trump wanted to press Putin into a goal of an independent, non-Assad Syrian government, Putin has reason to believe that it is he, and not Trump, that will call most of the shots, as Trump has compromised himself as a seemingly servile admirer of the Russian dictator. Then, there's Iran, which will want a say in the future of both Syria and Iraq. In this case, it is Trump's unending threats to Iran that will make any useful dialogue impossible.

The near annihilation of ISIS will be hailed universally. However, let us not forget the huge human toll and suffering that has accompanied this victory. Thousands of Syrians have been displaced and thousands of children have been killed. The lifestyles of many middle class Syrians have been shattered for a long time to come. The destruction and horrors of this civil war will haunt Syrians for many generations. The Deir el Zor desert where the final victory against ISIS has been achieved not only hides oil under its sands but also the bodies of many current and past killings such as the Armenians killed by Ottoman Turks a century ago. Let's also not overlook that Russian air strikes and solid fighting by inadequately armed Kurds contributed to the collapse of ISIS. With Assad back in power this war has achieved nothing except bring all round misery. The Western powers, America included and the Sunni Arab states wanted regime change for various reasons. The Sunnis wanted to contain Shia Iran. Israel benefits from a weak Syria. The West dreamt of a democratic Syria and encouraged dissent after the Arab Spring uprisings. The truth behind the complicated causes of this civil war will perhaps never be known. A UN led multinational humanitarian effort at reconstruction with major contributions from Regional powers. An Assad regime whatever it's murderous rampage has a long history of protecting Syria's religious minorities. American policy is a failure.

The question now is whether the U.S. will continue to support the Kurdish and Syrian Democratic Forces who have fought so long and hard to defeat ISIS in Syria. What was the point of our fighting ISIS in Syria far beyond the Iraqi border in the first place? It only allowed Assad to concentrate on brutally destroying other insurgent factions? It hasn't stopped ISIS from inciting terrorist attacks all over Europe and here. Sooner or later Assad, the Russians, and Iranians will probably end up with all of Syria. For all our condemnation of those adversaries, we seem to have played right into their hands. It's reminiscent of our equally stupid removal of Iran's worst enemy - Saddam Hussein.

Good to see Islamic State fighters following the Pesh Murga model: be "brave" when things are going your way; run like rabbits and surrender when they don't. There surely are many fanatics, claiming religious "inspiration," among them, but seems most of them went along more for aspects like enslaved women and girls. The dregs had their day, and hopefully now their day is gone.

This newspaper has parroted US neocon, Israeli and Gulf States propaganda since W decided to go on a crusade to remove Saddam from power, a crusade that ended in the total destruction of Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen. Only now the Times refers to the "Syrian government" instead of the "Assad regime". The only thing I agree with Trump to date is his incessant tirades against Hillary's incessant tirades against the "Assad regime". I, for one, completely agree with Russians defense of the Syrian government, which, like Saddam's, kept a lid on Sunni extremism exported by Salafis in Saudi Arabia and their despot allies in the Arabian Gulf. Nothing has made me happier than reading the Syrians captured Deir al Zour and are nearing the destruction of ISIS. Christians are rejoicing in Syria instead of fearing for their lives having been nearly exterminated by Sunni extremists that the West cozied up to, as had happened in Iraq. Seems to me, and most of the world, that the only victors in the carnage since W went into Iraq were the Israelis, who found that the US and the West did their dirty work without a finger pressing the trigger.

Hallelujah.

In the guise of wiping out 'Da'esh'/ISIS the entire Syrian civilization has been destroyed beyond recognition. Assad, the 'butcher of Damascus', is getting away with the biggest genocide of Syrians in modern history thanks to Iran, Russia and the complicit 'west'/US, Arab monarchs/despots, ISIS, and Israel. The Syrian conflict started with the 'backdrop' of Arab spring in 2011 sponsored by US alluring the Syrians to dream of democratic rule. 'west' wanted a new architect of 'middle east' after the post second world war map has outlived. It is the balkanization of 'middle east' after complete destruction/annihilation of Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Mali...and bleeding of Egypt. The American dream of controlling Syria was marred by Iran and Russia's ruthless assault on Syrian folks with chemical weapons...Russia consolidating Latakia airbase and Tartus naval base. US/'west' has been 'outmaneuvered' by shrewd Putin/Rouhani duo in the 'middle east' realpolitik where Isreal will be the ultimate beneficiary. Its a war of natural resource management at the expense of Iraqi, Libyan, Mali, Syrian, Yemeni folks. 'Hats off' to Syrian opposition for trying to win democracy in Syria against brutal Assad army. And a shameful act of naked aggression against humanity with chemical weapons/barrel bombs by Assad, Putin, Rouhani. 'western'/US hypocrisy is not astounding but utterly shameful. Europe has faced the brunt of terrorism due to its failing ME policy...quite tragic for all folks!!!

A balkanized Syria is to no one's advantage except those who benefit from chaos, the same reasoning that has led to the denial of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq by the international community (with the notable exception of Israel) should apply in Syria as well.

The Syrian Army's ability to overcome a US-led international effort to destroy the country's sovereignty and turn it into a vassal state is a remarkable achievement for the ages. The US committed grave crimes by providing arms and weaponry to Islamist extremist groups and invading a weak country with the end goal of regime change and extending US-Israeli hegemony. It had NOTHING to do with spreading democracy or protecting ordinary Syrians. As a liberal, I have no qualms about demanding a full congressional inquiry into the Obama/Clinton administration which only poured gasoline on this Mideast conflagration. How could they? Even now, the US is bullying the Kurds into taking territory and oil fields in areas they have no business being in just to limit Syrian government control within its own borders! Just leave already!

Good that those vile insults to Islam are losing their ground. Hopefully Assad and the Russians follow them, so Syrians can return to their country without having to fear continued genocide. Both wings and all in-between would agree, because no one with a soul wants good people to die, and less who can safely return to the land they love there means more we have to care for here.

ISIS killing innocents in the streets of New York and American soldiers in Niger. Where’s Trump’s support for those fighting ISIS on the battlefield? From this article - “Syrian government forces, supported by intense Russian airstrikes and Iranian-backed militias..” “The Iraqi army and allied Iranian-backed militias seized control of a crucial border crossing.” I’m sure that both of these anti-ISIS campaigns have American support – but what about some praise for the Russians and the Iranians? President Trump accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism and wants to increase sanctions against them; yet, the Iranians are actively fighting the very terrorists who are killing Americans. Not one of the attacks in the last two decades have been organized/inspired by Russia, Iran or Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. The perpetrators have been the Sunni Arab terror groups, al-Qaeda, ISIS and Boko-Harem; often financed by groups in Saudi Arabia. Yet – the US imposes sanctions against Russia but not Saudi Arabia. It’s about time Trump realized this, organized our foreign policy accordingly and – yes - acted like an American President!

Indeed, the collapse of ISIS leaves the Donald with a problem. Russia, Iran and Assad on the west of the Euphrates and the SDF (local Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians, Yezidis) backed by US air power on the east. Neither Assad nor the SDF could have removed ISIS without air support. Now Iran and Assad have plans to attack the SDF. Will Trump face down the Russian air forces, or will he capitulate to the Russians? Assad, Russia and Iran make a pretty good axis of evil, but the likelihood that Trump will abandon them means the chance of stability and self-rule by the people of Syria is still a long way off.

After the USSR vacated Afghanistan old animosities flared among the various Afghan warlord groups who turned on each other. After Tito was gone from Yugoslavia old animosities flared among Serbs, Croats and Muslims who turned on each other. After Saddam Hussein was gone, old animosities flared between Sunni and Shias who turned on each other. After ISIS is gone, old animosities between various factions fighting ISIS will flare up and they will turn on each other. After the Tet Offensive in Vietnam in 1968, U.S. battle commanders said they had to destroy the city of Hue in order to save it. Assad and his pals are now destroying Syria in order to save it. An odd concept of victory. Anyone see a pattern here? Anyone think these animosities will ever be over? Anyone see the futility of all this warfare? Anyone see any reason to be over there?

Demonstrating that it is, in fact, JV. Guerrilla wars are always difficult to fight, even when the enemy is relatively small.

Congrats to the SAA you did a great job of winning this war despite the US stupidity and trying to takeover Syria for its oil and the greater Israel project. Face it the US has lied about this war from day one to please the military industrial complex and the big oil companies.

How much money and American lives were spent to turn over Syria and Iraq to Iranian and Russian control ? We also just turned our backs on the Kurds who were our only real allies. This will turn out to be one of America's biggest military and foreign policy disasters in history.

Retaking land once occupied by ISIS is all fine and dandy. I have yet to read of any plan to counter their type of ideology and propaganda. Countering ideas will the most difficult job in the future.

The Russians, the Shia Muslim Arab Iraqis, Shia Muslim Iranians , Sunni Muslim Turks and Sunni Muslim Kurds are the most motivated effective foes of Sunni Muslim Arab ISIS. While the Sunni Muslim Gulf area Arab states misled by Saudi Arabia and the military dictatorship in Egypt are the most effective supporters and generators of support for ISIS followed by Israel. America's alliances with the latter nations along with the invasion and occupation of Iraq has damaged American interests and values in the Middle East for at least the next generation. The devolution of the Muslim Brotherhood into al Qaeda and ISIS is only the beginning. The denial of fundamental natural divine equal certain unalienable rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness will haunt America with a calculated cold callous cynical judgment of historical hypocrisy.