Thank you, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and the rest of the Fed governors post-Greenspan. You have navigated our economic ship through some very rough waters, to yield a far better outcome than any elected officials deserve even a shred of credit for.
3
Two quarters does not make a trend. Let's hope these supporters of tax cuts for the rich take a more realistic view of trends when investing - or we are headed for another crash.
It would be dangerous to bet your bankroll on a trend based even on the prior 8 quarters. But that would be a lot safer than betting on the last two data points. The trend in GDP growth was 1.7% based upon the prior 8 quarters (including the 3.1% GDP growth in the quarter ending in July).
The Fed, the CBO and other expert economists have been watching the trends, in many financial indicators. They predict a long-term economic trend close to 2%.
The budget resolution Republicans just passed to justify huge tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations assumes they will only increase the national debt by $1.5 trillion to operate our government if GDP grows at least 3% for 10 successive years! We all should remember what happened in 2008 that Fed chair Alan Greenspan belated referred to as investors having engaged in "irrational exuberance"
4
...at the fastest clip since Obama got re-elected, that is to say.
Whoop-de-do.
Mr. Trump just keep winning, all the while his foolish critics focus on the meaningless. I love it!
3
imagine how much better the economy would be without trump!!!!
2
Party like it's 1929!
1
That loud sound out your window will be a lot new, fomer milliaires jumping out windows when the economy crashes whne they lose the million.
1
another misrepresentation of the truth by implying the economy is similar to 2014
A corporate leader who suggested that it should expand because it might get a tax cut is a corporate leader who should be fired. Always bet on a sure thing. Also, if a tax cut is your only motivation to expand, you might be riding a very dead horse!
4
Reading the piece and many of the comments under it are quite confusing. It appears that either obama or the Fed, particularly Janet Yellen, get the credit.
There is no credit due for President Trump, the time line of the economic growth only favors Trump, but we all hate him because he stole the election from Hillary, so we should not give him any credit and give it to the guy with the putrid "you want fries with that" economy of the last 8 years.
Whatever. I said this would happen, President Trump's economy would be far better than obamas, and it would happen rather early on. And when it did, the left will hate him even the more for it and also would try to give the credit for this President's economy to the last one.
The worst has yet to come for you loveable little leftists, I predict that obama will remain the ONLY American president to never have a single year of 3% economic growth AND that Trump will see his closer to, if not 4%.
That will really set off the left. President Trump is a great just dessert for so many of you. Enjoy.
2
Why do we need more tax cuts when our largest corporations and the investor class are sitting on billions upon billions of dollars on their balance sheets?
Apparently, it seems like there is low demand for real investment in spite of all this cash and historically low interest rates.
So, America needs to suffer to keep a morally bankrupt, callous, pandering Trumpian party together?
Welcome to the Trump’s new alt-reality show, Political Apprentice: White Rich America First. “Who will be next to be fired, quit, bullied, or forced out by his legion of attack dogs? Tune in after a word from our Russian-backed sponsors!”
3
Good job janet yellen, timothy geitner and obama.
1
What a great week for President Trump and America! In addition to the great economic news, we learned that it was Hillary who colluded with Russia, not President Trump! The Podesta Group is under investigation by Mueller, not President Trump!
2
I maintain that not enough water has gone under the bridge to say the 3% spurt had anything to do with Trump. If NAFTA falls through, you can guarantee a crash. Trump has no idea what he is doing monkeying around with trade deals that have brought us were we are today.
3
I'm busy trying to get a contractor to remodel my kitchen for the $1,000 tax cut Trump has promised me. Of course, as a liberal elite, I am insisting she only uses US citizens as employees, so this could take some time.
1
The boon to the economy is President Obama's legacy. and it took him 8 years to lift us out of the miserable economic hold that George W. Bush and the GOP out us in. What Trump has done will damage this economy in the long run. He's deregulating everything plus the GOP provides a budget that cuts into Medicare and Medicaid and none of that is good for the economy. A healthy populace makes for a healthy workforce and therefore a better economy so don't take serious any chest pounding from Trump on the economy. He's doesn't know anything and and he's bad for all of U.S.
2
So we don't need a tax cut for the wealthy, then?
2
There was 3 million jobs under W. Bush with two tax cuts for "the job creators."
There was 10 million jobs under Obama, really 16 million but 6 million were jobs restored from the greatest recession since the Great Depression.
And that was after restoring the highest marginal tax on the job creators and with the "jobs killing" Obama-care.
Is it possible that spending on healthcare creates jobs just like spending on infrastructure and the military?
And Bush got a balanced budget from Clinton and gave Obama a whopping $1.4 trillion deficit. Obama got that down by almost 2/3 to $550 Billion.
Which is to say we didn't get anything from W. Bush's tax cuts.
I did get a one time $600 check. But since there was a deficit it really means he gave me the check and put the bill on my credit card.
1
I am thinking of taking a cash position and when the next crash comes I will be able to buy at half the price.
the economy has only been weakened by trumps push for the 1800's while China, Saudi Arabia, India and Rwanda take over the future.
1
For most of Obama's eight years, Republicans in Congress dedicated themselves to cutting Federal spending, as well as Federal revenue. The result was a slow economy, as would be expected by anyone with a beating heart - economist or not. After that performance, Republicans were somehow put in charge of our money. "Baffling" would be an understatement, yet I'm afraid when the chickens finally do come home to roost, as they always do, few of us will be surprised.
As John Maynard Keynes wrote, economics is so simple, only a child can understand it.
Every US national government since Washington took about 17% of the US National product in taxes to run itself, except during the big wars - The Civil, WWI, and WWII. Until Obama. His policy of equality of result raised that amount to 25%, a 50% raise. The result was an economy that never reached 2% growth for 8 straight years, the only time that ever happened in our history, the loss of much of our manufacturing base, and the destruction of our middle class.
Trump was elected because he promised a return to the economy of opportunity that built the US, and a middle class that was the envy of the World. It's happening, and the result is driving the liberals crazy.
They howl at his tax break (That makes sense to them; they want all the wealth of the hands of the government so it can "re-distribute" it) and they blind themselves to its results even before it is actually put into effect.
1.7 million people have left the food stamp program; their number had doubled under Obama. The flight of American manufacturing companies is plummeting and some are coming back. And even after the destruction of a triplet of massive hurricanes, we are growing at better than 3%.
The progressives just keep looking for the liberal economists' predicted 30% drop in the economy, and their "lack of inflation".
Pitiful.
You know I hear these numbers tossed around but the truth is it means nothing to someone making 35k like me. No raise is coming my way I can guarantee you that. The only time I can remember caring about these numbers is 2008 when I was laid off for 3 months only to come back to 15 hours a week. Under Obama's leadership that 15 turned into 20, 30 and 40. That may not have been some miraculous 3% increase for these people but for me it changed my life.
2
so why is gop proposing tax cuts and djt proposing new fed chair? just declare victory and go play golf.
Thank you President Obama for the leadership that helped the country avoid a major depression.
It is hilarious that after 8 years of uneven and putrid economic growth under Obama that leftists now give him the credit for what is very obviously the President Trump economy.
Everyone knows, even if they refuse to admit it, that the Obama years were a corporate water boarding and that companies were sitting on piles of cash afraid to invest because of Obama and his leftist economic theories and policies.
Remember, Obama and his ilk, including the NYT Paul Krugman, swore to us that 3% economic growth were over, mostly because Obama was the only president who couldn't get there.
Now these same folks are taking credit for what they said would never happen again when it is obvious that President Trump deserves the credit.
In truth, almost ANY president would have gotten the benefit of a faster growing economy post-Obama, because Obama was that bad.
The truth hurts.
President Trump is already a better president than Obama, and for those on the left it is only going to get worse as some are whispering of growth post-tax reform during President Trump's first term of 4%.
Best of luck figuring it all out, just remember that reality marches along without ever requiring the left to join the parade.
I think that tax cuts could indeed increase the country's economic growth. It's however important to offset them. So, which tax cuts are going to have the biggest impact and where will the offset have the smallest impact? Obviously, at the lower end of the income distribution, where consumerism and debt reduction will have the most beneficial effect! And offsetting them with taxes on wealth, not income from work, should spur investment. (Tobin tax!) And don't worry, billionaires,the physics of money dictates that it trickles up rather than down!
1
Just because the writers and the NYT despises Trump, they work hard to cast the arguments made by the Republicans as unlikely. Here are the facts:
The economy has grown by >3% for two quarters.
No one really knows why but it is plausible that one of the reasons is that businesses, who need to plan spending in advance, might have some confidence that tax reform will happen, if for no other reason that the Republicans are desperate for a legislative success.
I personally believe another major contributor is the regulatory roll back that is happening in the country and the belief that there are likely no major regulations coming, again boosting business confidence.
And with inflation not happening or accelerating, a belief that the Fed will not dramatically raise rates. Another uncertainty that enables planning.
Note that the tax effort to flatten rates and regulatory reforms are Trump / Republican issues and Obama / Democrats were going in the opposite direction. So who's to say that 3% isn't achievable?
Finally, I suspect those economists who say 3% growth for the year is unlikely didn't predict the last two quarters performance and are colored by their sympathies for a more progressive agenda.
1
Krugman has already admitted that bias clouded his horribly wrong post-election stock market predictions. Krugman predicted a massive decline in the market. Reality was the exact opposite of what Krugman assured us would happen. The science was settled! I feel terrible for those who missed out on the huge gains, including Friday’s monster day in the NASDAQ, because of Krugman’s bias
1
Riding Obams’s successful rescue of their previous failure at ‘governing’, the GOP is trying to enact the same failed policy, but to an even greater degree.
The connection to when America started not to be great anymore leads to the GOP taking over congress in the 90s.
Having controlled the House for almost 20 straight years, all lack of policy, economic failure, loss of international respect is due to the GOP.
As their control of more and more state legislatures has increased, so has the economic malaise and troubles of our nation.
If you want to know what’s wrong with America it’s the lack of any new or forward looking policies from the party that largely runs our governments across the nation.
Where has this party been succesful in the last 20 years they’ve “governed” our nation?
And now that Obama’s policies actually saved our country from their failed economics and world diplomacy, their new, so-called, policy is to merely undo everything Obama did.
Not a single new or original thought or policy.
The reason they campaign on fear is that it’s all they have, unseen evils coming to get you. It masks their lack of creativity, education, and common sense when it comes to leading America.
7
So the average consumer is going to look at the Trump administration and it's tax plan and say "I have so much confidence the tax bill will pass, that I'm going to spend money it hasn't even given to me yet."
Seriously?
4
The economy is expanding with the current tax structure so why change it ?
4
You must believe. Many economics department salaries and much published research underpinning those salaries depend upon the acceptance of this homo economicus nonsense.
Mr. Trump is making good on his promise to make America great and business responds. Although despised by the progressive media and Hollywood, Mr. Trump's successes can be measured on wall st as well as other economic indicators.
The reason the last recession lasted so long is because Mr. Obama was anti small business. The Obama administration foisted the largest tax increase called Obamacare on small business right in the middle of the recession. What do you think would happen?
6
Continuous growth ever since the Obama administration took the rudder?
1
The federal reserve board is contemplating raising interest rates with no sign of inflation. I would like someone to explain how that policy makes sense. We finally have a decent growth rate and it would seem prudent to hold off a quarter or two to see if we can sustain that growth. If it starts excelerating to much then raise rates.
2
The only inflation the Fed can see is wage inflation and just like the Iraq WMD intel, data is "fixed" to reflect their outsized concern for rising wages. "It is a big club and you ain't in it" - George Carlin.
It is called the psychological effect. I know the readers of this paper will disagree but Trump has had a positive effect and that is something no quantitative economic equation can equate. The psychological effect is something that will always make economics an inexact science.There are no doubt other factors but do not count out the optimism that he has brought to a large percentage of the population that have wealth whether you agree with his politics or not.
5
Before I retired, I was a trader on Wall Street and the phrase most often heard after the release of government data was: "economists were surprised". As a group, they are surprised more often than any other. Years ago it M1 , now monthly unemployment, quarterly GDP as well as a host of numbers du jour. People claim these "numbers" move the markets. The truth is that financial markets move because there is a vested interest in them moving. There are thousands of traders that do nothing but trade and it's the act of trading that makes the markets move. There is always a "number" whether it's earnings, crop reports or whatever. And if the direction of the move is counter-intuitive then the market "discounted" the "number ". So, I'm not surprised there are some economists in your article that are skeptical about what caused the bump in the economy. The fact is they don't know. If they did, the Dow would have fallen 30% as your esteemed Noble prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, had predicted as a result of the Trump election. He must be "surprised", too. So, if GDP continues to improve over the next three years economists will have to grudgingly admit it has something to do with the present administration and that would be the biggest surprise of all.
7
Its just so frustrating that economic changes take years to build, requiring many moving parts to align. Wouldn't it be nice if someone, or some policy, could take clear credit? But they can't: nobody can do that.
1
This happened without the tax cuts which signals that policies implemented during the Obama Administration induced a slow but steady recovery from 2007-8 that has (or had until Trump started dismantling it) a solid foundation and still has "legs" 9 years later. Anyone with even a modicum of knowledge about economics acknowledges that national economies move at glacial pace and that policies take time to take hold. This is still an Obama recovery regardless of Trump's always empty boasting.
17
Right John.....
Obama's famous last words.....3% GDP is a thing of the past and Trump is whistling in the wind.
The best thing President Trump has done is cut all the chains obama put on our industries. Try to keep up, more changes are coming.
You liberals who moan in public, doing your best to knock Trump's success are sitting in private giddy as can be that you are finally seeing after 8 years, the massive gains that your 401K's are making .
1
We have had decades of policies designed to reduce the economic leverage of people who work for hourly wages. And now a good many people have very little extra money to spend. Many corporations already have a lot of cash lying around, yet they don’t expand their businesses. The reason is that they don’t have enough customers to expand. So the way to get our economy juiced (and possibly to reduce the desperation that produced the opioid epidemic) is to take some of the river of money going to investors and use it to push services down to the struggling folks. We’re talking about a living minimum wage, a national health insurance plan, government financed childcare for working parents, and free college tuition. And some kind of policy to deal with jobs displaced by automation and offshoring.
Good to note also that taxes are not a total drain on the economy, because all that money, and more, is used by the government to buy things from American businesses with American employees. Even money that is literally given to the struggling folks is used immediately to buy things from American businesses. So money that is taken in taxes does not exactly disappear.
10
The tax cuts have another purpose than to stimulate the economy, which economists doubt will happen. The tax cuts are meant to coincide with a reduction is trim government. In other words when social, scientific and environmental protection programs are cut, they could rise again due to expected massive protests. But if there is no possibility of funding these programs, the GOP will simply say, we cannot afford them as they would require raising the taxes and will add to the national debt. Obamacare, the EPA, federal support to public schools, the State Dept,, the dept. of interior, and others are on the drawing board for cuts and it won't stop there until all of the entitlement programs are eliminated.
5
The cuts in services that trump is ordering need to be shown to the American people in specific terms . For example , The Chesapeake Bay is our largest and most productive estuary . We have been working diligently for 50 years to restore it's vitality and trump plans to cancel the cleanup effort and re-pollute the Bay . Disaster!
Yeah the tax cuts are on capital gains. So stocks which arc literally non productive allow current earnings on current assets to be more valuable. So stocks go up. But gdp growth is due to people finally feeling and trusting the long term impacts of Obama’s economy. And spending additional income. This expansion has been one of the longest in history. I doubt it will survive all the way through trump. So trump people don’t get all happy yet. Let’s see who the new fed chair is. One is a strict monetarist, which means he’ll strangle a strong economy with high interest rates
5
Is anyone else getting deja with the Bush II Administration when economic figures produced by the government began to improve at a time that it helped sell an agenda, then the figures were quietly revised downward months or even years later?
7
The facts behind this economic growth don't matter. Just like health care reform was a massive transfer of wealth to the top 10%, tax cuts are also a ruse. Making the rich richer is all the GOP wants to do, no matter who it hurts.
9
Economic growth will be even greater once much-needed tax cuts are enacted. The top 20% of earners pay 95% of all income taxes collected and desperately deserve a tax cut. Plus reductions in the corporate tax rate, the highest in the developed world, will further boost the economy!
6
And, thereon, proportion of the the resulting profits should set up as a social security fund to immediately be given to eliminate poverty in America and also to fund a national heath plan. When these things are done, our economy will truly be boosted, that is effectively stimulated perpetually.
I am serious.
12
@Larry
Please share with us where you get your numbers.
Now it is true that the top 1% are paying a higher percent of the total taxes than ever.
It is because they are making a higher percent of the total income than ever.
50% tax on $10 million = $5 million
40% tax on $15 million = $6 million
6
Giving the hard working lower income groups a raise would be better than a hand out.
4
Oh, great, we increased the rate at which we turn the ecology into the economy! Yeah for us!
I got an idea, let's see if we can compel our human resources sitting around on the couches everywhere and put them to use extracting natural resources, add value to it all and then make them buy it from us.*
What a great racket...I mean society. Boy, we really know how to live! Now, with China getting its America on, maybe we can all live happily ever after...Oh? OK, Brazil, India and Russia, come on over and let's play!
Huh? Oh, did we forget ol' Europe again? Sorry about that. You know, y'all got enough on your minds, what with just keeping your panties all knitted up...Sure, you want have some economy too, we understand -- Ooops! Nothing left in your backyard? You say you gotta head down south for some more ecology? Hmmm, I don't know, looks like you gave that bit up after your Second World War: no more adventures for you any more, my little pretty.
3
Thank you president Trump.
MAGA!
9
What'd you get? I got candy corn, and a promise of lots of peeps mext spring.
For what? All I can see he has done is talk, and crudely at that.
You won’t see him laughing, as he walks the other way.
so why is there need for tax cut if the economy is so healthy? Last time the tax cut brought a double dip recession. Why repeat experiment again?
17
Because we're Americans and we have NO memory whatsoever.
1
Tax cuts bring recessions??? This has never happened, not once, anywhere, at any time in world history. The exact opposite is true, tax cuts increase economic growth
Happy days are here.... it's morning in America again! Now let's move on to tax reform and cuts. The more the NYT readers squeal the more certain we can be that President Trump is on the right track! Stock market at records ; GDP on upward trajectory . It's all good.
And isn't it sweet we no longer have to read every day about who can use which restroom.
12
Behold, the rampant tribalism destroying America from the inside out
1
Are we citizens or mere stockholders? Founding Fathers and Mother must be weeping! Quarterly profits for stockholders do not equal a healthy well-ordered society, period! We were not on the brink of anything close to the global Great Depression despite Trump's ridiculous Carnage speech on at the Inauguration!
5
Any ledger has two sides. Here's a glimpse at the debit side of of the economy: "Revolving credit had been growing at an annual growth rate of 4.9%. One reason: More consumers are getting access to credit cards backed by major banks and issuers in recent months." 8/8/2017
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-households-will-soon-have-as-much-d...
2
I remember when Bush gave me a tax cut.
But there was a deficit.
Which just means he put the bill on my credit card.
And the credit card of our children and grandchildren.
10
And Pence was the tie breaking vote on legislation in the senate that rolled back a law that allowed consumers to sue banks and credit card companies in class action law suits.
Anybody middle class voter that thinks Trump & Co. are on their side are being blinded by shiny objects and being set for the pick.
5
Thank you President Obama for setting the table! Well done, and we miss you!
11
After eight years of "you didn't build that", high taxes, overbearing regulation, targeting the energy sector, a weaponized executive branch attacking companies and citizens...we get to see what happens when government gets off our backs.
Imagine what would happen with tax reform!
6
Nothing has been passed by Trump at all that has gone into effect yet. So what's your point?
No lifting of the coal caps, no lifting of regulations, no federal lands opened up yet . Nothing.
So, you're saying the Obama era policies, that are still in effect as of this very moment and are the bedrock of this current economy, didn't "kill jobs" after all?
2
Hope you don't have well water and live near a coal ash pond or chemical plant.
They are devising ways you can't even sue big companies in class action anymore and conveniently dismantling the very agency that would have to come out and test your water. Drink up!
2
Yes those 8 years were great! The Dow went from a crash of 6,500 to just shy of 20,000. We were gaining 300,000 jobs per month and more people finally had health insurance. A real disaster!
1
Headline should read:
US Economy Grew at 3% DUE to Storms
Hurricane damage brings about full employment - jobs for anyone either skilled in construction trades, high-tension work, refinery work, and folks who are just skilled enough to fill trucks with trash or work extra shifts at retail outlets doing everything from unpacking trucks to running cash registers.
3
It's good to see the economy can coast for a while. It gives Republicans time to figure out how to govern. Besides hollowing out EPA, shredding regulations at the behest of industry, and ditching the filibuster to steal a SCOTUS seat, they don't have much to show their paymasters. It seems their last hope is to open the treasury and let the top 0.1% loot it until the cupboards are bare.
5
Let's get this straight
Neil Erwin
Presidents Have Less Power Over the Economy Than You Might Think
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/upshot/presidents-have-less-power-ove...
Paul Krugman
How much influence does the occupant of the White House have on the economy, anyway? The standard answer among economists, at least when they aren’t being political hacks, is: not much.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/opinion/paul-krugman-presidents-and-t...
Neither Obama, nor Trump had much to do with it.
1
Growth was over 4% in 2011 and 5% in 2014. So currently it grew 3% in the third quarter. Big deal - that is one quarter that has been annualized. We are talking a "rate" in this past quarter which does not reflect what the rate will be for 2017. Anything for a headline. The article states that it is highly unlikely that growth for the year will reach 3%. I would bet that the increase in spending relates to plywood, generators, insulation, sheetrock, roofs and other items related to the last quarter of storms.
The R's will tell you anything to get tax cuts passed including that they believe in Santa and he is going to bring you a pony for Christmas.
7
If only a few of the many dangerous pieces of the Trumptastic tax cut plan survive, like reduced IRA contributions or elimination of the state and local tax deduction, this economy will be quickly crushed. Add an exploding deficit and stock market bubble, crashing housing market, and it's 2008 all over again.
4
You Californians need to pay your own state taxes. Pay your fair share! The rich whites of California must stop pushing their taxes on poor black single mothers in Texas or Florida or some other state
The usual stock price index numbers ... Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500, have certainly gone up considerably since Trump’s election. But that is not a measure of the nation’s economic health. If you take a closer look, you will see, for example, that the average p/e ratio for S&P 500 shares is up about 12% since the beginning of the year and signals that share prices are historically very rich versus current and forward earnings (the latter projected, of course).
So a good portion of the average share price increase is what can charitably be called ‘confidence,’ or more realistically and cynically called ‘irrational exuberance,’ greed, or counting chickens that have not hatched and may never do so.
So it’s party time on Wall Street. Big deal for somebody. However, I guarantee you that party will not improve the economic picture and quality of life for blue collar workers in Sheboygan, not one iota. It may, however, set the stage for a bursting bubble - in which case that fellow in Sheboygan will end up feeling the brunt of the fallout, just as he did in the tech wreck of 2000 and the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008, et seq.
4
If you want higher wages, curtail foreign competition, illegal immigration and workers visas.
no one can predict the market, but encouraging investment through retirement funds will increase market equity
3
Is that why the tax reform was going to gut the 401K system?
If you want higher wages, unionize.
Not "solid" but rather unless a recession is on it is the minimum we should expect.
10 years after the crash, it's about time. For the record, other economies recovered much faster, so on the global economy scale, this is a lousy record
Back four years ago, the NY Times featured this headlin
Recovery in Germany Is Faster Than Elsewhere
That was four (!!!) years ago.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/11/business/economy/a-faster-recovery-in-...
2
Slow, steady recovery is always healthier most economists agree.
Built on changing out sectors, re-educating, new innovation/businesses, and not on some wild, quick stock ride or new "magic cure-all sector".
4
Given almost a year of not a single major legislative accomplishment, I suppose in the (presumably damaged beyond repair) land of Republican thinking, it would only follow to take credit for growth for things they PLAN to do.
6
Yes congress has failed in major type bills, but they have passed some and approved a supreme court judge. And yes the economy is subject to emotional expectations, they are better now, and were worse under say Obama.
3
Look at the chart and read the article vulcanlex. We had higher years during Obama - 4 and 5%. As for the supreme court seat that was flat out stolen because the R's refused to let Obama's appointment have a Senate hearing or take a vote. McConnell said "no" before Alito's body was in a grave. That is NOT an accomplishment.
8
President Trump has been repealing Obama’s mindless orgy of regulations at a fantastic pace! Thank you President Trump, and keep up the great work!
1
If the economy is doing so well, then why do Republicans want to add $1.5 trillion to the national debt? Shouldn't we be paying down the national debt when times are good?
15
Because first of all 3% is not that good, and next nothing is going to pay down the debt any time soon, that would require a surplus. We also need massive improvements in our military so no paying down the debt.
1
So, there is no "tax cut" on the table. Deficits are deferred taxes. Some day, those bills come due. How many countries have collapsed in a debt crisis?
1
Why does our military need improvements? I'm serious. We spent an insane amount of money on the armed forces. We have the most technologically advanced war machine on the planet. What more could the military need (other than a plan to deal with the whole sexual assault epidemic)?
1
Like rats off a ship watch them jump when the growth eventually reverses. Let’s just gloss over the worst financial disaster in a hundred years on their watch, shall we? Now where’s a subprime mortgage when you need one guys? Surely re-enabling that would spur some giddy growth numbers for a while?
6
Just wait a minute - they're working on getting those lousy mortgages back out there as quickly as possible. Dismantling the Consumer Credit Agency as we speak.
They'll have a loan for ya and bridge to sell ya.
"U.S. Economy Grew at 3% Rate in 3rd Quarter, Despite Trump"
6
It is laughably absurd to suggest that the executive and congress, a non-stop car crash since January, could be held responsible for these growth figures. That legislation they haven’t even passed would play a role is nuts— and at any rate any gambler would certainly weigh the considerable odds of them failing once again. Clutching at straws for signs of any accomplishment. And no, before the have a chance, the sun rising is also not a politically influenced event.
2
A Youtube commercial from my Congresswoman claims "hard-working middle-class families" will save an average of $1200 per year with tax reform. That's nice; what will the 1% gain in comparison?
Anything that causes our already scary deficit to increase, is insane in my non-millionaire opinion. Why do this???
2
According to the administration, in the personal income tax arena nothing, they might pay more. Yes they get somewhat lower rates, but lose several deductions and such. Perhaps this is incorrect since the bill is still not known and will be changed from its initial form that we will see next week.
Abolition of the AMT and estate tax guarantees large windfalls for the wealthy regardless of the other provisions. Cutting the tax on "pass-through" companies will stimulate a lot of legal business but few benefits to ordinary Americans.
Lemme see, economy growing 3% but we need tax cuts for the 1% and corporations to stimulate sluggish economy? I have it right? No?
Further, the 1% are going to get 80% of cuts while corporations are going to share their profits with workers even though decade after decade wages have stagnated like a giant swamp. BRIDGE. I got a bridge to sell. How much am I offered?
11
Like George W. Bush, Trump will deregulate Wall Street and create an illusion of growth, taxes will be cut, debt will rise, the markets will rise, leverage will increase, the wealthy will spend, people will "feel" richer on paper, and, suddenly, one day, the piper will be paid.
Then a Democrat will be elected to clean it up.
19
Like my old baseball coach used to say: Always mess with a winning game plan because it takes effort and motivation to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
3
The economy is growing at a decent clip, just as it has been for several quarters under the previous administration -- and under the supposedly punitive corporate and top-bracket tax rates. There is no evidence at all that those tax rates are too high, and scant evidence that Trump's wanton deregulation, throwing out a great many beneficial regulations along with some overreaching ones, has accelerated growth at all.
6
Decent??? 3% should be the minimum.
1
Stability with 3% positive growth is ideal . Don't get greedy .
1
Will those that give Trump credit for the longest expansion in history, starting 7 years before he took office and continuing six months into his term, also accept his culpability when the rate of growth declines?
9
What do you think?
The economic literacy of a french fry; and that’s just this Congress.
1
Optimism is important for growth. The Left doesn't inspire people to confidence in the economy or life in general. Trump, as unconventional as he may be and some would say too disruptive to the establishment, does give the workers and their bosses reason to believe tomorrow will be better than today. We'll see. Best of luck to all.
4
Frankly I’m not sure your analysis inspires much confidence. But in the absence of any substantive creditworthy accomplishments, cheering good news and would be far from their worst failure so far.
3
I've lived in New York City for 13 years, and I have never seen as much construction as I do now. I wondered why, and then I came across an article talking about how Elaine Chao has streamlined approval to get lots of projects moving quickly that had been stalled. Trump has streamlined lots of other areas as well, which has already led to a rapid increase in natural gas production, among other things.
If tax cuts go through as well, and it does lead to repatriation of foreign earnings (which seems likely), we will see a LOT of economic growth. I'm not generally a Trump fan, but if he does what it looks like he'll do, he's going to be reelected in a landslide in 3 years with a rapidly growing economy that's providing growing wages for workers (high growth + low unemployment = wage gains).
Obama's lousy economic management basically teed this up for Trump. He set the bar so low there was just tons of low hanging fruit left on the tree, and yet I see comment here literally using the phrase "Obama economic miracle" as if the worst recovery from a recession since WWII is somehow an economic miracle. We should have had huge growth for years after the financial crisis, but instead it was tepid, and now all that pent up demand is getting unleashed and we may be in for a very big boom.
5
Or not. More likely, not. Obama doubled the value of the stock market, and cut unemployment to a third of what it had been when he took over. Trump has done nothing so far, but ride on Obama's coattails. Republicans talk big about how tax cuts will create an economic boom, but they have actually done in real life is create economic busts that only benefit the billionaire donor class, and cause the rich to get richer and the average person to get poorer.
7
I suppose Obama hadn’t considered a hugely profitable war as an option?
And not to over-emphasize the fine print, but New York’s skyline still has precious little bearing on the Appalachian economic downtrodden who were desperate enough to clinch the election for him in the first place.
5
As a reminder that you seem to be conveniently ignoring, Obama inherited a very deep and wide recession, where millions lost jobs, millions went bankrupt, and how don't know how many lost trillions in wealth, the housing industry collapsed, and the world economies took a deep dive. Trump inherited a recovered economy, with a low unemployment, low interest rates, and now a global economy on the rise, with a weaker dollar increasing exports. Let's at least try to keep everything in perspective.
5
I find it difficult by applying the laws of common sense to understand how a Corporate tax rate will drive GDP above 3 percent on a consistent basis over the next few years which is necessary if the deficit is not to grow as a result of
the proposed tax cuts.
For example we are almost at full employment , there are over 6 million skilled jobs vacant and the 6 million unemployed do not have the skills or mobility to fill them.
This will put pressure on wages as Corporations compete for scarce labor , yes this is good for the skilled labor force however it will create inflationary pressure , higher interest rates both factors will hurt the unemployed.
This is a real negative for Trumps base.
Longer term it could exacerbate the lack of compeitiveness and cause Corporations to outsource.
I believe in fairer tax rates and a 20 percent Corporate rate will be fair for smaller companies but all companies must pay it , that includes GE and Apple.
The objective should not be to create a stimulus for an economy close to overheating but to make our tax code fairer and simpler for all in a revenue neutral manner.
We are a year or two from another serious recession, the stock market is indulging in irrational exuberance
4
You actually answered your own dilemma.
You are trying to apply common sense.
All those pushing for tax cuts are willing to override common sense, recent history for that matter.
1
Thank you President Obama!!!!!!!!
15
read NYC80
The Republican motto is: "If it ain't broke, but was first fixed by Dems, then fix it until broken." Will be funny watching them turn an unassisted three pointer into a goose-egg--thanks lame ducks...
10
I'm quite happy with these numbers, as well as with my 401K numbers, but this is still just a small part of the picture. Are people getting the health insurance we need? Is climate change problems being addressed? Are we isolating ourselves in the world by our 'my way or the highway' approach, not to mention being closer to nuclear doomsday? Even Reagan, the conservative's darling saw he had to raise taxes. I'm happy for today, but real scared for what's around the corner!
5
For all those citing the stock market, the stock market is not the economy.
It is just the exuberance of whatever the last person paid for a share of stock.
It can go down just as easily as it can go up.
GDP growth and jobs are more important numbers.
Obama had 8 quarters of above 3% growth and one at 5%.
Trump's first 6 months of jobs is 1.1 million.
Under Obama, the first 6 months of 2016 had 1.2 million jobs.
As citizens, we have a responsibility to do our homework.
Watch the deficits go up under Trump. It is the future of your children and grandchildren at stake who will pay for these deficits.
17
That was a great comment.
3
You may think its a great comment etc, however is misleading and under any 'google' lookup not supported by the facts; Obama's best or peak GDP growth year was a just 2.4 percent, over eight years, he averaged just 1.4 percent.
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-ch...
2
Ciao. President Obama has added the most by dollar to the US debt.
4
Without a tax cut.
4
Evil, greed and hubris have clearly won over America.
5
Not all Americans or Congress Persons are evil and greedy. There are helpful people in both parties.
2
I don't remember the Republicans being so happy when the economy grew 3% under Obama.
7
Well there is a simple answer to that - the GDP never grew by 3% during the Obam's years ... conduct a simple 'google' lookup and you will discover the facts; Obama's best or peak GDP growth year was a just 2.4 percent. Over eight years, and average of 1.4 percent.
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-ch...
@Jerry
You're comparing apples and oranges. This article is about a quarterly rate. Obama had seven quarters in which the rate exceeded 3%--Q4 '09Q4 '11, Q3 '13, Q3 Q4 '13, Q2 '14, Q3 '14, Q1 '15,
1
If I were Trump I would not be taking credit for the economy over the last nine months and even now. Because as interest rates go up, debtors will stop buying and investing and the economy will falter. It's been a long economic expansion and this is the high water mark for the Obama economic miracle.
Now, it's all on Donald "stop calling me Hoover" Trump. I feel better already. Hold on to your hats.
1
How do you know that interest rates will go up? Do you read the Economist?
Thank you President Trump! Continue dismantling the Obama regulatory state, cut taxes, and let ObamaCare collapse of its own weight and the economy will grow even faster!
5
Off. And there isn’t a single piece of evidence for any of those economic assertions.
1
Reading through the comments here left me speechless. The economy is expanding and everyone is finding excuses not to credit President Trump. Seriously, I feel like most liberal would rather see Americans fall under Trump than thrive. This is the result of a business minded president's pro-business and pro-growth policy that brought about all this. Should the tax cut get through, the US economy will see something like 4-5 percent growth. Liberals, face the reality! You are wrong! Dead Wrong!
6
You are not able to predict the future.
1
Most of us who follow economic policy know that trends in economic growth take years to build, and more importantly that presidents have little influence over those trends. The current state of the economy reflects developments happening since 2010. As for Trump, all we know for certain is that he will claim credit for any positive news and blame others if things go bad.
And I'm sure Trump will take full credit for it... despite having nothing to do with it... but that's the new GOP way... Bluster, bluster, bluster...
3
Bluster is the nice way to describe it. Though how new that really is is debatable.
Unfortunately, this administration has already issued over 1,000 documented lies or misrepresentations of fact. Furthermore, we have a President who has shown no hesitation in pressuring gov't agencies to lie for him.. be it the Nat'l Park Service, the FBI, or the DOJ... therefore EVERYTHING that comes out of this administration is suspect - even economic data. That is the price you pay when you debase truth on a daily basis...
4
The Republicans will take credit for the growth and, then, through their policies, destroy it. And then blame Obama.
7
People citing "Obama" is pretty amazing actually. The market has spiked 4,000pts and we have the real economy growing by 3%, and that is all because the business community (Fortune 100 down to mom and pop) know that they finally have a friend in the White House. Invest, hire , build.
Tax Reform and deregulation policies coupled with the reconstruction of S. Florida and Houston will lead to 4 straight quarters of economic growth above 3% leading up to Nov 2018. We all know how that ends.
this is only the beginning.
5
From where do you get your statistics?
2
Not if they can't hire undocumented workers to help with rebuilding.
Take a good look at that picture folks. That is the "new normal".
Don't believe in capitalism. It will not save you from climate change.
3
Yes, Trump is crass, boorish and full of himself, but he's getting things done. Unemployment is down; the stock market is up; ISIS is nearly vanquished; illegal immigration is down even without a wall. This is what Dems cannot stand. That is this awful man is actually a pretty good president.
6
Well said. They can't believe that someone with such an offensive personality can be so effective.
I would rather have Obama speaking at my funeral, but will take Trump any day for president.
1
From which source do you receive your information?
The stock market already was up. Unemployment already was down. ISIS already was on the way out in Iraq and Syria. Trump had done nothing but try to sell us out to Russia. He is a useless con man, with no loyalty to his own country.
1
"So even if you...believe (wrongly) that Trumponomics is going to do wonderful things for incentives a la Reagan, you should still be expecting growth of 2 percent or under."
- Paul Krugman
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/02/18/trumps-rosy-scenario/
4
As usual Jim Tankersley is whistling past the graveyard of irrational exuberance. Go ahead, Jim, sink your retirement into the market. Free tip, buy some coal stock to go with your cancer causing chemical stocks. You can leave your vast wealth to your children. They are going to need it.
If you were paying attention — knew what you were talking about, you'd know that Trumps policies if you can call them that are taking us in the wrong direction. As China rapidly accelerates it won't be long before the US looks like a "Wagon Train" rerun.
"Wagon Train" was a fifties TV western.
3
There is some sense to reducing corporate taxes, and great sense to simplify the tax code, BUT ...
The wealthy are extremely wealthy under the current tax rates/system. Why the heck do they need tax relief?
We live in a society, not on individual islands. The wealthy do need to support the overall society through taxation. Taxes in the USA are a small price to pay for a civilized place to live. When the wealthy forget this, as they seem to be doing, a nation ends up first, an oligarchy and second, a socialist "paradise" like the USSR, Mao's China, and today's Venezuela.
Our nation prospered under the high taxes, strong unions and tough regulations of the 1960's and 1970's. (Unions, like management, can overstep, and some of our unions did, contributing to our gradual decline.)
Our nation went into the Great Depression under Republican leadership, low taxes and less regulation, not to mention the Gold Standard, in 1929. How quickly we forget??
5
In modern economy class wars (as perpetuated by liberals) are needed only for political gains. Money, these days is not maintained in gold coins or is stashed in beds.
So, beyond what two people spend, there is no difference between then even if they earn vastly different amounts.
What happens to the amount that is not being spent. It flows back into the economy as capital which is used to produce more output.
So the only question remains - who can allocate that money better, the individual or the government. Government gives it away for political/personal gains. Individuals invest it for personal gains. If you give away money, person who is receiving it does not add anything to the total economic output. If you invest instead, you force the person receiving the money to work for that money, thereby increasing the economic output. Not a difficult concept to understand at the macro level.
Very simple example from one of the most liberal states. Public school teacher's job gets eliminated because the public school does not have the budget. Out of the job, the teacher gets a paycheck from the government as unemployment benefit. So the government is still paying the teacher after determining that it cannot afford to pay the teacher.
I have always gone by the labor participation rate. That is the only true measure.
In Nov, 2016 when Trump was elected, it was 62.6, by Oct 1 it was 63.1.
1
Of course job participation is up, it has been increasing the past 6 years.
Job creation is on a 83 month record.
Figures don't lie, liars figure.
3
Will be very difficult to get to 3% for the whole year growth in 2017. I think Q4 growth would have to be around 4.8%. Current rate is about 2.4%.
1
If Q4 is 3% plus then it will be the first time in many years that three quarters in a row will have exceeded 3%.
1
It's like that time when I wrote an fantastic essay in middle school but forgot to put my name on the top. Then Shirley whatever-her-name-was grabbed the paper and wrote her name on it and turned it in. This time it's on a Presidential scale.
3
Shirley must have been one heck of an editor, based on your post.
Or the fact may be that year after year turning out mediocre essays and getting booted from the class, you saw Shirley's excellent essay, and claimed that it was your essay that Shirley pet her name on.
Thank you President Obama for putting our economy on the right track after Bush nearly caused a depression.
10
George Bush did all the heavy lifting to fix the housing timebomb he inherited from Clinton. Obama nearly caused a second stock market crash when he declared he would decide when companies were allowed to make profits again. Obama has the worst economic record of any president in history
3
Actually, W. Bush gave us the "Great Recession" the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Alan Greenspan kept Fed rates near zero while Bush promoted "the home ownership society while at the same time cutting back the SEC watchdog work of Wall St.
4
The United States of America has not seen growth numbers like this since 2006. Throughout the Obama years, growth averaged 1.5% a year. Obama was not in favor of business and the growth percentage reflected his love for socialism, for stifling regulations, and for living on the dole. Under Trump however America has renewed its capitalist spirit, people are once again interesting in working for a living. Had Hillary Clinton been elected the economy would not have been this robust, especially if she had fulfilled her campaign promise to put environmentally incorrect industries out of business. I wake up every day thankful she is not the president of the United States. I support the President, I support Trump. I look forward to his reelection in 2020.
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-ch...
5
The 3% is growth for one quarter.
Now look at the graph for this article.
Obama had 8 quarters of better than 3% growth and one was 5% growth.
Let's see what the annual growth for 2017 will be.
We have rights as citizens. We also have responsibilities to be informed citizens.
2
Congrats, you're another gullible person who prizes money over everything else. Continue supporting this cretin and see if he doesn't destroy you, too. (You might also consider reading up on history- Trump didn't do a thing to boost the economy and his new tax plan will sink us further into debt than ever).
2
Looks like fake math their Southern Boy. Growth under Obama never averaged 1.5% a year but better than 3% in a quarter. Trump is riding on Obama's coattails.
2
Its all Trump, Trump and Trump alone could have achieved this. Businesses did nothing. Consumers did nothing. Congress did nothing. All Trump. We should just give up, recognize how great, wonderful, magnificent, astounding, amazing, and brilliant Trump is, and dismiss all the other politicians, scrap the Constitution, suspend all the laws where Trump is concerned, because Trump is our savior.
Can I have more Kool-Aid now, please?
10
1 Million cars destroyed (billions) and houses, sure spending money and jobs for replacement of those have impact on the grew, BUT destroyed money does not appear in those 3%.
1
Obama had 8 quarters of above 3% growth and one with 5% growth.
http://fortune.com/2017/08/30/donald-trump-springfield-mo-3-gdp/
As citizens, we have rights but we also have responsibilities to be informed.
3
The article you quote does not support your statement. You are incorrect and under any 'google' lookup it is not supported by the facts; Obama's best or peak GDP growth year was a just 2.4 percent, over eight years.
http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2017/01/06/obama-economy-10-ch...
1
For Jerry: Independent stated exactly what the article cited stated. Quarterly growth over 3% during 5 of Obama's quarters. True, there was no yearly growth over 3%. Trump has not done anything Obama didn't do. Plus, the world economy went through one of the worst recessions ever after the housing/banking bubble burst, so growth was ridiculously slow all around the world for years after that. Bush never achieved 3% yearly growth either and I seem to recall some big huge tax cut that was supposedly going to give us years of 3-5% growth. Hmmm, are you sure those tax cuts do what you claim they do?
1
Great job by this administration. If Congress could function we'd have even more growth..
4
I would invite anyone thinks this is Obamas stock market to look at a graph of the dow jones over the last eight years. Not only is it clear from the slope of the obama vs trump parts of the graph that the rate of increase is much greater under trump, but also the DJ was flat the last two years under Obama. It took after the day after Trumps election.
3
That's because of the expectations of a Republican agenda that places the fortunes of corporations and the wealthy above everyone else.
6
The stock market is not the economy.
It is just the exuberance of whatever the last person paid for a share of stock.
It can go down just as easily as it can go up.
GDP growth and jobs are more important numbers.
Obama had 8 quarters of above 3% growth and one at 5%.
Trump's first 6 months of jobs is 1.1 million.
Under Obama, the first 6 months of 2016 had 1.2 million jobs.
As citizens, we have a responsibility to do our homework.
Watch the deficits go up under Trump. It is the future of your children and grandchildren at stake who will pay for these deficits.
2
Much of that growth in the markets reflects anticipation of tax cuts. If the Republicans fail to reward the wealthy, expect to see a fairly large "correction" sometime next year.
Maybe maybe things improved after it became clear the R’s weren’t going to be able to repeal Obamacare. People and their wallets relaxed.
Look at the details.
Things have not improved, they are just continuing what has been going on now for 83 months straight of job growth.
Quarterly GDP numbers go up and down. Obama had 8 quarters of above 3% GDP growth including one quarter of 5%.
First 6 months of 2016 added 1.2 million jobs.
First 6 months of 2017 added 1.1 million jobs.
1
This is what the economy looks like after 8 years of smart planning. Thank you Obama and team.
98
It's interesting that US GDP is hardly ever compared to that of the global GDP which in 2016, according to the latest IMF report, enjoyed a 3.21% growth rate with 2017 projected to see 3.62%. Recovery globally, it reports, is primarily due to growth in developing economies. Since the US has the largest economy in the world (24% share of the global GDP) it follows that we should benefit most from this global recovery. GDP doesn't mean a thing to those who won't be seeing the kind of tax breaks that multi-billion dollar corporations will see and apparently don't need as evidenced by the current steady growth. So why not give middle income families a break and some spending money to spur growth?
3
Obama had 8 quarters of above 3% growth and one with 5% growth.
As citizens, we have rights but we also have responsibilities to be informed.
3
He never had three quarters in a row of 3% plus - consistent and sustained growth >> choppy start-and-stop growth.
Now that is being informed.
@ SteveRR
First quarter 2017 is less than 1.5% GDP growth.
And you can see it in the graph this graph:
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdp_glance.htm
But pay attention to deficits if they pass the Republican tax plan.
It is your children and grandchildren who will be paying.
1
Independent - I was referring to this upcoming 4th Quarter - if it exceeds 3% - which it should - it will be three in a row.
And I talked to my kids and grandkids - they said that if growth is at 3% plus then they are fine with a deficit - just as long as the allowances keep flowing.
This is still pretty much still the payoff from eight yrs of slow, boring, steady growth under Obama.
If the republicans self destruct shortly look for it to continue. If not and they rob the treasury of trillions of dollars to aid the rich, sooner or later look for a 2008 eco type melt down.
46
So amusing, all these responses, giving Obama credit in this liberal echo chamber. More so, when some of you bring up George W Bush. Folks - despite Trump’s overall incompetence - the fact of the matter is the current government is pro-business and no longer is holding back the economy with it’s over regulation of everything. And guess what, if tax relief occurs as promised, we will get even higher growth.
What bothers me most here is the level of hypocrisy that exists in this forum. Obama presided over the slowest economic recovery ever recorded. Yet some of you are giving him credit for the current economy. And all of you progressives screaming about the pending tax cuts conveniently overlook the fact that the top 20% in this country pay 95% of all taxes. Naturally they get a larger percentage of the tax cuts.
4
"Liberal echo chamber"? You'll have to explain what exactly Trump did to achieve these amazing growth numbers. Please point to a specific enacted policy or policies over the last nine months that magically spurred this GDP number. Please explain this vague notion of "over-regulation of everything." Thanks.
2
It ain't broke so why fix it? Oh yeah, the top 1% want 99%.
1
This is just the continuation of 83 months straight job growth started by Obama.
Trump's record of 1.1 million jobs in six months is less than the 1.2 million added during the same period a year ago under Obama.
We have rights as citizens. We also have the responsibility to be informed citizens.
5
Well you just proved at the very least that Trump is maintaining the sizzling pace of Obama. :)
The stick market is up over 20% for the year; just how much of that translates into economic growth.
It certainly isn't salary increases, as they are running between 1% and 2%. And, consumer prices, fees, insurance premiums, health care, etc. are rising faster than salary increases.
If the GOP, gets their way, many Americans will see their taxes increase, biting into what they can spend to survive.
The report shows consumer spending is down, in an economy where consumers drive most of it. Exports and business investment is fine and good, but when that money is not going into consumer pockets, but into Wall Street, it is not a good sign for a sustainable, growing economy.
Trump's, and the GOP tax cuts, will certainly start a spiral downward into another recession.
2
I do not believe the stock market always reflects the general health of the economy. As I recall, the stock market boomed during the Carter malaise.
And the stock market was flat during Obama's last two years - your point is?
GDP is perhaps not the indicator of progress we think it is.
It is certainly not a measure of well-being for those households
harmed by hurricanes. GDP includes the goods and services generated by events with "bad" outcomes such as storm damage and health costs owing to diseases of all sorts.
2
The broken window fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
never fear! we have every confidence this Republican Administration, too, will precipitate a big recession to give rich people the chance to use their tax savings to buy up the middle class at bargain rates. you can take it to the bank.
4
They might even thin the herd ahead of time with deregulation of dangerous chemicals, apathy toward climate change, and then break their banks by eliminating class action lawsuits (so company's cheat their customers at every turn), and the deregulation of Wall Street. I am ashamed of what our country is becoming right now. All these insane policies, money grubbing idiocies, viciously hard right wing turn, all with 3 million LESS votes. Sad! No seriously, I have been sad for a whole year now.
economic grow is all the fault of trump. we dont want growth
2
Obama had 8 quarters of above 3% growth and one with 5% growth.
As citizens, we have rights but we also have responsibilities to be informed.
Thank you President Trump. Next repatriate the earnings of companies that moved overseas.
3
I look at the chart from 2009 to the present and the latest 3% looks pretty normal. There is a high of about 5% and a low of about-1.5% with a mean that might be slightly greater than 2%. I don't expect this to change that much from the tax breaks since the rich get most of the tax breaks and they will just reinvest their $ in stock and bonds and not spend it on stuff. For tax breaks to increase GDP you need to give nearly all the tax breaks to the lower and middle class since they will spend the $ on stuff which will increase demand and then more stuff will be made and more people will get jobs. But that will not happen since Citizen's United demands that congress and the senate pay back the bribes they received from their donors. Thanks to the idiotic SCOTUS.
2
It is frightening and puzzling that Trumpists could actually believe that something Trump has done in the past 10 months is the cause for the growth. Since when does name calling, excessive yammering about nonsense, and chaos equal accomplishments? Trump slipped and fell in the right direction because for eight previous years we had sane people in Washington who were able to clean up after the horrific mess that men like Mnuchin created when they hoodwinked the middle class into pumping up the real estate bubble that crashed badly. It is a statement of the stability created during the Obama years that Trump could continually act foolishly and amorally and yet we still can muster up some strength. However, if he keeps up his ghastly idiocy, this growth will not last long--we are still in very, very big trouble.
It is amazing how much denial there still is about how badly we had destroyed our economy leading up to 2008. We tanked our finances to an extent that was writ so large and destroyed so much that the likelihood of recovery was nearly nil. Eight years later the ship was no longer listing badly and taking in water, and had genuinely begun to recover from one of the worse eras of greed and poor management we have ever known.
Ten months into Trump's chaos people are applauding him--you truly must be kidding!
1
"It is amazing how much denial there still is about how badly we had destroyed our economy leading up to 2008. We tanked our finances to an extent that was writ so large and destroyed so much that the likelihood of recovery was nearly nil."
Who is this "we" you talk about? If you were one of the gentlemen from Wall Street who helped engineer the fraud, theft and chicanery that led to the economic collapse, then I agree with you 100% and I thank you for admitting your role. If you are referring to anybody else, you would be dead wrong because nobody else is to blame but the Wall Street crowd for that catastrophe.
1
Why don’t republicans just lower the tax rate at the lowest and middle incomes; it will still benefit everyone who works including the first part of the income for rich people!
Lowering taxes for the poor will also lower it for the rich but lowering it for the rich will not lower it for the poor or middle class. Think about if you are making $45,000 a year and your first $10,000 of income is taxed at 10% and we lower to 0% then all income earners who earn at least $10000 would benefit. Then if we lower the middle income brackett from 25% to 15% all people who make that much would benefit. So if you make $45,000 the first $10,000 of that would be 0% but if we lower taxes for only those making $200,000 we will benefit only those who can make up to $200,000 and above. The benefits will not come until you reach $200,000.
1
47 Percent already pay no FICA.
I think you mean the Federal income tax. FICA is the most regressive tax we have. It is a flat rate and only applies to the first $120K or so of income. Everyone who collects a paycheck or is self-employed pays FICA. That's a lot more than 47 percent of households.
That canard about the income tax makes people like you (wrongly) think poorer people don't pay taxes. FICA takes a big chunk out of the earnings of the poor and nearly-poor.
Abolishing FICA and paying for Social Security out of general revenues financed by an increase in the income tax would be a reform that would help millions of less well-off Americans. All we hear about are "reforms" that reward the wealthy.
I suppose the "President" will take credit for the hurricanes and the growth we're starting to experience as a result of recovery spending. Also, corporations don't typically make capital investments based on expectations regarding tax policy, so the GOP continues its pattern of mendacity.
GDP growth has been accompanied by higher employment. While it is hardly proof, it suggests that policies supporting corporate growth "trickle down" to the benefit of the general public. I believe that 120% of those who comment here are proclaimed trickle down a failure. It seems to me that the burden is on you to explain why unemployment is now so low.
3
GDP growth has little or nothing to do with handing wealthy people more money, okay?
2
Since no policies have actually been implemented that might stimulate a "trickle down" this is anything but evidence of its effectiveness. At best, this is momentum from the previous administration (as many economists will confirm). At worst it's rosy expectations about lower corporate tax rates from investors who are assuming it will result in better returns - a bubble, essentially, that will burst.
1
You're confusing correlation with causation, a basic statistics error. Just because GDP grew & employment grew at the same time does not prove that the two are caused by the same thing or even related at all.
Every time republicans cut taxes (see Reagan, Bush II) the economy suffers. The only thing that trickles down is pain for the middle class. Then republicans scream bloody murder about the economy, the horrible debt their children are going to have to pay, because democrats haven't cleaned up their mess fast enough.
How is it that people keep falling for this con and putting them back in office?
3
The economy took off like a rocket as a result of Reagans Actions.
Maybe you don't remember 1981 - I do and it was tough. Reagan also had to increase taxes several times along the way. I don't remember how many as I was pretty young (and I voted for him). Reagan is a over rated myth whose economic policies George H.W. Bush correctly referred to as voodoo. Trickle down does not work - never has, never will.
2
Evidence please. Start here.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=fyng
Average GDP growth rates under Reagan were slower than in previous Administrations and no better than the Administrations that followed.
The people cheering for Trump's "improvement of the economy," are cheering for the economic activity created as the hogs rush to the trough.
By the way, any of you guys who still scream about Solyndra so much as fussed about the Secretary of the Interior handing a $300 mil contract for rewiring Puerto Rico to two buddies--that's the size of their company, two guys--who've got zero experience in such stuff?
Thought not. And there's your economic success.
Not since the halcyon days of making the fired President of the Arabian Horse Association the head of FEMA...
Betcha The President won’t call any reports of the 3% as “fake news”.
2
I see this as a good plan. My household has substantial income but no debt--we own the house and all our vehicles--so other than charity deductions, which will remain under this plan, having the standard deduction increase to 24K will result in lower taxes for us. Whether the net for the government will be positive remains to be seen. Have all of you who are so negative looked at whether you will be paying a lower tax?
2
Yup. As a retired couple over 65, on an average fixed income, the loss of the personal deductions wipes out the increase in the standard deduction. Thank god neither of us are blind, or the loss of those deductions would result in a tax increase just in that case
But our base tax rate increases from 10% to 12%. So we are going to be paying more tax.
AARP, where are you???
In other words, you're a Trumpist who makes more than middle-class money, and you're cheering becaue you think you'll get more still.
Of course your public services, Medicare, and Social Security will all get eroded, but wotthell.
And you'll be first to scream when the next bird flu, Zika or Ebola shows up, never mind that one of the things you cheered for was cutting NIH, CDC, USAMRIID, HHS, and funding for university research.
Speaking as an analyst, this news is not actually encouraging. I should say: The news is not encouraging taken in isolation. A global expansion driving growth is perhaps okay. However, I suspect investor expectations are partially, if not entirely, responsible. Businesses and stock holders are anticipating a huge windfall from the G.O.P. Their confidence is driving a stock boom that may never be realized. In a year or so when all their lofty projections fall flat, the entire nation will be left with an optimism hangover. Best case scenario: I think Republicans are causing the U.S. economy to overheat.
What happens when an economy overheats? You have inflation and/or a crash. Hence, there is a reason to expect drunkenness followed by a hangover. The general population won't share in the prosperity. Corporations will get the high while the populace takes the fall. The multifaceted push towards deregulation should do nothing to assuage your fears. This will not end well. The only questions are how and when. Whether your retirement savings, prices at the grocery store, or a government service you rely on: America is going to take a hit. Republicans are accelerating the process rather than managing it. Watch out. This is going to hurt.
6
Oh please Senator McConnell, oh please Speaker Ryan, please oh please dear leader Trump, go back to the Bush policies of 2000-2008 of cutting taxes for the 1% and deregulating Wall Street and allowing our overlords on Wall Street to accumulate as much wealth as possible by allowing them to screw middle America and the poor with such much needed "reform" by not allowing class action suits against Wells Fargo and Equifax for their criminal behavior.
Please throw us some crumbs from your Cayman Islands yachts, your private jets (or your government jets, Secretary Mnuchin), your mansions in the sky in New York, Dubai and beyond.
Your indentured servants thank you for your largesse.
10
I'm confused. If the economy is doing so well under the current tax code, why does it need to change? Obviously the Republican mantra that taxes strangle growth is not being borne out by the numbers.
17
I am confused, why do you love this tax code? Accountant, lawyer?
It needs to change because the deficits aren't large enough and the debt needs to grow more as well. What a silly question!
SF, you are indeed confused, since nowhere did I write that I love the tax code.
I'm not so sure we should trust Trump's Commerce Department reports. I wouldn't be surprised if every federal agency under Trump begins to dispense reports allegedly slanted in his favor.
4
This is all because of President Obama! There will be always a lag in Economy for the things to happen and to show the effects of tweaks to the economy. Wait for a couple of years and see what is going to happen because of republican tweaks. Pray that it is not going to be another great depression.
6
i'm ready for the next depression. My beggars bucket ready
So--have you looked at your 401K balance lately? So how long are you going to play the it was all because of Obama nonsense?
1
The economy is doing just fine, which has nothing whatever to do with the Trump administration. If the Republicans ram through one of their rob from the poor to give to the rich tax cut disasters, the same thing is going to happen that did in 1929, 1990 and 2008, recession or depression. Which is fine with the billionaires who run the Republican party, since they will just foreclose on everyone's property and reinforce their monopolies by buying up their competitors, as they always do.
3
Ha, all of you Obama defenders never said the economy and stock market would soar after Trump was elected. Explanations of past economic performance are worthless. Your patting the back of Obama when you thought the market would tank under Trump isn't comical, it's pathetic.
1
The stock market rose because people who buy stocks expect to get a tax cut. There is nothing happening in the real economy to justify those gains in the indexes. Meanwhile the real economy maintains the slow but steady trajectory it has followed since the recession.
Thanks, Obama!
15
First, lets not forget that GDP measures very little in terms of our population's well-being. The New York Times itself has printed many articles and opinions about this (e.g. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/10/opinion/10zencey.html)
Second, any good economist knows that in the long run, natural disasters are actually good for GDP. Rebuilding generates all kinds of demand for new goods and services, which boosts production, consumption, investment etc. Is that a good thing?
It's way past time we move beyond focusing on GDP as a measure of our economy's success. There are better goals, and better measures of progress.
3
thank you Trump for killing so many regulations now we can hit 4 per cent plus with tax cuts which will start paying down the debit and give us more to spend
7
thank you Trump for killing so many protections now we can hit 30 per cent plus increase in unnecessary deaths and bankruptcies.
1
Did I read your post correctly? Did you say that tax cuts will start paying down the national debt? Can you name a time in the past when this occurred? Do you live in a make believe world? I know, these are a lot of questions but I would like to see some answers.
If you're tired of these mindless consumption benchmarks, look up terms like "degrowth" and "steady-state economy" The planet is finite and most of this "production" is made possible by finite fossil fuels.
Furthermore, so-called "clean, renewable" energy is destroying what's left of Earth's finite scenery and wildlife (industrial wind turbines are the biggest offenders). Growth in human economic terms is actually depletion in biological and geological realms. Scientists keep warning us about this, to deaf ears.
3
If after nature disasters like hurricanes and torrential flooding our economy is growing at an unprecendented rate why do we need to give a more than one trillion dollar tax cut to the top 2%? The Republicans tried to decimate ObamaCare in order to give this same 2% a trillion dollar tax cut.
If after horrible natural disasters the economy is booming and if after the top 2% have already been paying higher taxes because of ObamaCare and they are STILL in the top 2% then why in the world do they need more of a tax break?
Instead of a tax break for the rich divide the 1.3 trillion dollar tax cut into two and give half of it to anyone earning from $10,000 to $150,000 a year and zero to anyone earning above that annual amount and put the other $650 billion into repairing our highways, roads, bridges, tunnels, and airports.
We are living in a time of unprecendated greed and the top 2% have the attitude that they never can have enough and they always want more. True leadership would say to the folks who are in the top 2% "you are doing quite well and are not hurting. You can live where ever you want, purchase whatever cars, homes, and jewelry you want and take a vacation where ever you want to go. The poor and middle class have not thrived since the end of the Great Depression. They are still struggling to get by with many people living day to day. Now is the time to help them. "
The likelihood a Republican Congress or the billionaire narcissist stating this is, sadly, zero.
15
Why does trump keep saying "I inherited a mess"?
"A mess"? Sure ... it's Obama's fault is it that he handed Trump a lousy economy that had created 16.5 million jobs? If you have near full employment, rising stock markets, strongest dollar in some time, rising consumer confidence, lowest uninsured percentage . . . What's the mess he inherited?
Dow Jones going from 7,949 to 17,735
S & P 500 going from 683 to 2040
Unemployment down from 7.8% to 4.9%
GDP Growth up from -5.4% to 2.2%
Deficit GDP% down from 9.8% to 2.8%
Consumer Confidence up from 37.7 to 97.6
Uninsured Adults down from 18% to 11.8%
American cars sold up from 10.4m to 17.5m
This is what Trump inherited.
11
Actually, the stock market was flat the last two years of Obamas term.
3
I've not done the math, but I'm willing to lay odds that the average p/e ratio has been steadily rising along with the rise in the usual Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq index numbers.
Putting more air in a fully inflated balloon does not make a better balloon.
Don't confuse John with facts...
For all you Dems. If a Democrat would be in office and, after years of stagnation, the economy was suddenly strengthening at a markedly more intense rate than before, you would also be saying it's all Obama? Baloney. You would give credit to current administration as well. Trump has an aura of being good for business. Whether true or not, that alone has given the market confidence it did not have before.
6
The S&P 500 went from 683 to 2040 during Obama’s years in office. Is almost tripling in price a sign of lack of confidence? Maybe I haven’t been watching enough Fox News to understand what a gain of almost 300% means.
1
Notice how we have continuous growth since Obama's second term which has continued uninterrupted ever since and decreases in unemployment? All of this recovery occurred without tax cuts for the rich. The GOP that tax cuts are necessary ignore reality as usual.
9
GDP is still a horrible measure for economic growth when it comes to the average person. We need to measure Median Domestic Product. Because when we use GDP if one guy gains 3% and everyone else stays at 0% then the economy technically grew by 3%.
3
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=fynP
Median income grew more slowly than GDP before the recession. In three of the past four years it grew much faster, and in one year it plunged. I believe the two outliers resulted from wealthier people forestalling income in 2014 that was more favorably treated in 2015.
Being the animal he is, Trump awoke the animal spirits.
Keynes, John M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. London. Macmillan. pp. 161-162
Yes, but of course the economy is growing based primarily on the policies and tax plans put in place by the Obama administration. What this really says is that there is no real economic need for the tax cuts being rushed by Republicans - it is purely ideological and it is being rushed because they know they might not get another chance after the 2018 midterms. What really is needed now is twofold - 1) an infrastructure investment plan, not for direct economic stimulation but for our long term actual needs; 2) to try to correct the increasing income disparities between working class and the very wealthy/corporate profits. The Republican tax plan works counter to 2) and by creating huge budget deficits, will make it even harder to do 1). Why they should be taking advantage of this news to promote their agenda is beyond me.
6
So a question.
How much of that GDP growth is due to the economic stimulus of relief packages for the hurricane damage?
GDP is a bit of an odd statistic, and claiming that GDP growth is only, or mainly, affected by the prospect of a tax policy that is not only not implemented yet, but is not even defined, seems to be a triumph of hope over substance.
Admittedly "Hope Over Substance" is the motto of the Trump White House, but still...
2
A fly spec on an economic curve. Republican tax revision and economic policy will be seen in the REAL (not "alternate truth") light of day when the next, and probably most severe, economic crisis hits the fan. THE ECONOMY IS CYCLIC, as it has always been. Instead of expecting perpetual gains and infinite growth, why does common sense not prevail? Why don't we save when we can, establish an emergency buffer, lower our national debt, and save the future for our children? It's coming, and Trump hopes it won't arrive until the next administration so he can blame it on them. "Pass the buck" should become the motto of the Trump Republican Party.
5
If a person works for a company, and earns 1000$ for the company, making say 800$ wage a month and then the company replaces the person by a machine, all of the 1000$ go to the owners of the company.
If that person then finds a way to scrape 30$ together, the economy as a whole grows to 1030$ and by 3%.
2
With economic analysis like this, we have absolutely nothing to fear...
It summarizes growing inequality, a lack of productivity growth (the worker is fired) and the blind siding by GDP growth in a simple statement. Up to speed Kev?
Thanks Obama. We'll see Trump's economy in the biggest market crash ever, just like 1929, 1988 (Reagan), 2007-8 (Bush). The casino on Wall Street is busily looting, hoarding and removing value in a big hot air balloon. You ain't seen nothing yet.
Of course, we could have a nuclear event, and climate change is ramping up, so perhaps collapse is on the way any old how.
10
The bill for the hurricanes etc. haven't come in yet, and Trump is sending Puerto Rico to debtors' hell. Right now purchasing replacements for all the destroyed stuff is helping the market, but the toxic residue will remain for decades.
7
I wonder how they measure the "U.S. economy" now. They certainly aren't measuring it based on average and poor citizens "wealth" because the wealth is owned by The International Mafia Top 1% Global Financial Elite Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys' Cabal. There is some interesting reading in the media today about that.
The Guardian News has an article that includes the Swiss Bank UBS Billionaire's Report. The bank is concentrating on "wealth management" and, as most readers know, was a BIG player in the manipulation of the most important stock market rates.
Below are some highlights from the report. It might take a second post to get them all in so I"ll link the articles in The Guardian and Bloomberg first:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-26/billionaires-fortunes...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/26/worlds-witnessing-a-new...
UBS Billionaire (International Mafia Robber Baron) report
*Billionaire wealth rose 17% in 2016, double the rate of the MSCI AC World Index. After a pause in 2015, expansion in billionaire wealth has continued. Globally, the total wealth of billionaires rose by 17% in 2016, up from USD5.1 trillion to USD6.0 trillion. There was a 10% rise in the number of billionaires globally to 1,542.
4
To continue:
*There are startling figures: for the first time in history there are now more billionaires in Asia (China) than in the US (all created by Wall Street).
*The rise of networks (collusion). Billionaires are leveraging their networks. They have always worked with groups of peers for business, investment and philanthropic ends. But they are using them more, for example to access significant funding outside the capital markets. Better connectivity is helping them to work together more effectively.
*The world’s 21st century billionaires are linked to companies in sectors such as technology (amazon, google, twitter, facebook and every other social media company) that are powering the new economy, as well as many of those lifting living standards in emerging markets (and lowering standards in The United States of America).
*The 1,542 billionaires on our database own or partly own companies that directly employ (only) at least 27.7 million people worldwide – roughly the same as the UK’s working population.
*The United States still has the world’s largest concentration of (Robber Barons and) billionaire wealth. It grew by 15% from USD2.4 trillion to USD2.8 trillion as billionaires prospered, far outstripping the MSCI AC World Index. Thirty-nine people entered the billion-dollar plus wealth band and 14 dropped off.
(Word in parentheses are mine. Those interested can read the full report at:
https://www.ubs.com/microsites/billionaires-report/en/new-value.html )
3
This is the healthcare dividend coming into play. In a lot of smaller populations, there is a huge growth in the health care fields that wasn't there before. Think of all the people who were put on medicaid. Expect this bubble to burst in the Rs have their way.
1
I'm seeing a lot of thanks directed to President Obama.. I think most of the commentators here have forgotten that the White House / Fed does not have the power/ influence to control economic growth that we believe they do. This isn't Donald Trump's success or President Obama's success. This is plain economics being steered with a little nudge here and there from Fed policies
5
Much of what you said is correct, but you cannot possibly take an intelligent look at the results and not see that cutting regulations and promising tax cuts to corporations doesn't have SOMETHING to do with the sudden spike in GDP growth. If you do, you're not being honest.
Here's a prediction for you, and it won't win any Nostradamus Awards, if I'm correct. If corporations get their tax rate slashed to 20%, some of that $2T+ of American profits sitting overseas will come back, and investment inside the US will increase, both because of additional capital and because of the lower tax rate, driving-up GDP to something closer to 3.5%. If that is coupled with a real tax cut for the average consumer, which drives 70% of the economy, you will see at least one, maybe two, years of 4% GDP growth (until inflation causes rates to go up, substantially, raising interest rates and slowing the economy).
3
I can't argue with that! Much of the growth (with the exception to the tech titans (AMZN 10% increase in shareholder value in one day) is due to sentiment and rosy predictions based on this current political climate. The real test is whether corporations will use their repatriated wealth for investment R&D or will it go to stock buybacks and purchasing startups with very few employees.
2
Pie in the sky analysis. We've done this before. When we last did it about $1 trillion came home and guess what? No additional investments but, they did park it in nice funds earning themselves huge sums, not to mention the multi-millions in tax breaks they got to enjoy. It's nothing more than ripping off the American taxpayer..
Seems to me hurricanes, like wars, always seems to boost the economy. Post storm rebuilding can be profitable.
4
Yes, and much of that is going to occur in Q4, along with holiday sales, meaning that there is an excellent chance that Q4 will also see GDP growth at 3% or better.
Imagine if/when tax cuts come into play!
1
It's these kind of articles that helped the collapse in 07/08. The economy is not doing well, lots of people have given up looking for jobs. Much of our country is 3rd world and unless we move towards a future of clean energy which will create jobs and minimum incomes for all.
I live in NYC, I can lose my mortgage income deduction, my state and local tax deduction and a huge 401K deductions. I am not rich by any means and if this all goes down our economy is going to suffer because I will go out to eat less, go to less events and just spend less over all.
If you want a thriving economy, it's simple:
Corporations and the Wealthy need to pay their fair share (Corporations have so many loop holes right now that their tax rates are currently way lower than what is being suggested)
Make the move towards clean energy, educate people to take on the millions of jobs that will be created. We need a bubble up economy where millions of middle and lower class people will be given more purchasing power. Trickle down never works! The greed of the corporations will go straight to shareholders. As of right now.....the Dow means nothing to the majority of this country. My guess is....a major collapse is going to happen way sooner than later.
16
Your DNC talking points are not helpful. I agree that, in the long game, green energy IS the economic future, but like almost everything in life, everything in moderation. Right now, much of the growth in GDP and the historically LOW unemployment rate is due to increases in fossil fuel industries.
I live in California, and own my own home, so I'm looking at many of the same tax deductions lost as you. Personally, I do not believe that the property tax deduction will be in the final iteration of the tax cuts, but state income tax probably will. You and I both choose to live in high-tax states. Why does someone in a state like Montana or Alaska deserve to have to pay an extra point or two in federal taxes to bridge the $100B gap created by these deductions?
As for a major bubble pop, that is possible. However, short of a real war, Iran shutting-down the Straights of Hormuz, or NoKo using a Nuke, the one issue out there that is most likely to cause such a bubble popping would be a failure to cut taxes, which has obviously been baked into the recent market runs and GDP growth.
Let's just hope the tax cuts, which have NOT even been put forth with any real detail, are pro-US, and not just pro-Rich. An example of two items discussed as possible tax-cut measures which I am against, for example, would be scaling-back the 401(k) deduction (which Trump has indicated he is against) and eliminating the Estate ("death") Tax.
2
Sec of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, and his connections to Russian oligarch's and Cypress Bank, a unexplained missing $2 billion dollar blind trust is a "stalwart protector of fiscal accuracy..." Let's blindly trust this guy as long as he tells us what we want to hear. While the 3% number is not unbelievable, for now, I hope our institutions will call foul if they see something fishy. This admin will certainly try to foist and boast incredible economic claims before long.
2
So amusing, all these responses, giving Obama credit in this liberal echo chamber. More amusing, when some of you bring up George W Bush. Folks - despite Trump’s overall incompetence - the fact of the matter is the current government is pro-business and no longer is holding back the economy with it’s over regulation of everything. And guess what, if tax relief occurs as promised, we will get even higher growth.
What bothers me most here is the level of hypocrisy that exists in this forum. Obama presided over the slowest economic recovery ever recorded. Yet some of you are giving him credit for the current economy. And all of you progressives screaming about the pending tax cuts conveniently overlook the fact that the top 20% in this country pay 95% of all taxes. Naturally they get a larger percentage of the tax cuts.
10
Pookie, the average growth in GNP since 1970 is 2.1%. You could look it up, but I feel sure that you won't. You could also look up where we were, economically speaking, when President Obama took office--due to very mich the tax cuts and deregulations you're celebrating. But of course, you won't do that, either.
As for Trump being, "pro-business," try, "pro certain corporations, mostly in fossil fuel and Wall Street brokerage."
The sad part is, you personally ain't gonna get bupkes from all this. In fact, you're gonna see massive cuts to Medicare and your health benefits before Medicare. You are gonna see losing some of your state and local taxes deductions, and some of your 401k eligibility at least.
And you're cheering, because the wealthy get their taxes cut. I mean, you can't possibly think that they will look down at you, and say...oh, dear.
You do, don't you?
2
Regulations have never held back the economy.
The US has a consumer economy. When people buy, businesses produce and hire.
No regulation has ever retarded businesses from doing that when they smell a profit.
1
yeah, you'll be rich but, your environment is already so polluted that by the time you try to figure out which unregulated industry gave you cancer or heart disease, you'll be dead by then. They're counting on it....how's the money counting coming?
2
Pointing even further to the massive failure of eight years of Obama's economic stewardship....
6
…economic stewardship out of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, a crisis created by prior Republican administrations.
You forgot that part. I fixed it for you.
5
Except it is only partially true. Much of the housing crisis was due to shennighans, such as so called existence of redlining during the Clinton years. That stimulated a lot of loans to folks who could afford them.
1
Please define your terms! What do you mean by "the U.S. Economy?" Adam Smith wrote that any economic analysis that doesn't include a discussion of the distribution of wealth is incompetent. This article contains no such discussion. It's as if the purpose of the human population is to grow the pile of money. I think the discussion should be about how well is the pile of money being used to grow and cultivate the humans in the population. Where is that discussion?
14
Perfectly said.
Figures on the economy and employment are meaningless without knowing their impact on working people.
3
Adam Smith died in 1790. I doubt he foresaw current conditions, political or economic.
As someone that is not rich, but owns a home, and hates the widening gap between US and the super-rich, I have to ask an obvious question. For all the complaining that people on the left, including especially those in this forum, do about the matter, when are we going to take an objective look at how we got there, and who benefits?
There is no doubt that the Reagan Years brought some of that change. One might even say he kicked open the door for this widening gap. The rest of the story, though, is that the two biggest spikes in the rate of this gap widening, BY FAR, are during two presidencies; Clinton and Obama. Furthermore, who is actually reaping the benefits? Forbes just issued their list of the richest Americans on 10/17/17. Numbers 1 through 4? Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, and Mark Zuckerburg (who's wealth went-up the most, $15.5B, in one year).
For all the complaints about the Waltons and the Kochs, it's liberal Dems that are aggregating the most wealth, and it is left-leaning industries (in the past two decades), including tech, autos and entertainment, that are most likely to have shipped your job overseas!
1
Will we live to enjoy it while Trump the terrible knocks holes in our
Fragile boat called democracy,and encourages violence in every corner?
4
Trump had nothing to do with this. What policies has he enacted except for culture war stuff (and some regrettable anti-environmental policies)?
But personally I'd take 3% growth in perpetuity over the wild swings we've experienced over the past two decades. Slow and steady growth makes the business environment -- and life in general -- more predictable and less anxiety-ridden. The Fed has done a good job trying to keep us in this Goldilocks zone (for now).
7
try to keep up lefty TRUMP HAS CUT REGULATIONS big time
Your view is colored by your obvious dislike of Trump.
Really? After eight-plus years of stagnation, GDP growth just HAPPENNED to hit the 3% rate again?
I'm sure that removing the jack boot of federal regulations from the throat of the economy had nothing to do with this. Neither has the promise of tax cuts, for both corporate and income tax rates!
Wait until the tax rates take effect, a chunk of the $2T+ of American money parked overseas comes back, and both investment and spending increase. I'm sure Trump will get no credit from you when GDP hits 4% growth, either!
Trump is an immature man-child, and he puts his foot in his mouth more than any politician I've ever seen (that actually won their election, anyway; Michael Dukakis), but there are a few things he's been correct about, and the economy, and fighting ISIS, have been two obvious examples. That may not make a successful presidency, but it's a fair start. Hopefully, things will improve enough that, by 2020, we won't need him, any more, but right now, he appears to be the bitter medicine we need.
How quickly the liberals forget how President Obama took credit for a reduction in the unemployment rate, when what actually happened is that many people were so disgusted that they stopped looking for work, decreasing the labor participation rate.
10
Of course every time President Obama mentioned the unemployment rate, he also said that a) it wasn't good enough, and b) labor participation wasn't good enogh, but you go right on ahead.
The idea that people just stopped participating when Obama was the President is ludicrous. This has happened since the unemployment rate has been measured. And let's not forget that the preceding Republican administration did nothing to mitigate the risk of collapse which ultimately discouraged so many workers.
My point is not that people stopped working because Obama was president; rather, the point is that Obama took credit for reducing unemployment when the real cause was people dropped out of the work force.
The Fed puts 4.5 trillion dollars into the economy, and the politicians take credit for a booming economy.
3
One might reasonably argue that new accelerated economic growth is not so much due to the presence of Donald Trump in the WH, but more to the absence of Barack Obama.
5
Best comment on this thread. 100% on the mark.
On the regulatory front, that might be a fair statement. On the effects of potential tax cuts on consumer and spending manager confidence, you are dead wrong.
1
There is a great deal of fake news currently circulating in this country about the health of the economy and the stock market.
Contrary to widely accepted economic theory, the economy in general and the stock market in particular do not thrive on order and predictability. What they welcome most is wild spending associated with chaos and confusion, exactly the type of government Donald Trump is giving us now.
Along with tax cuts, massive increases in military and health expenditures, repairs of the hurricane damage, spending on the opioid crisis and the building of our idiot President's Wall, all of this will work well for jobseekers and shareholders until the day comes that it doesn’t.
I am anticipating a gigantic crash before the end of the year; one big enough to finally persuade a few Republicans to take a serious look at the benefits to this country of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. I have taken my lumps in the market before and taking another one now to get rid of him would be well worth the price to me.
4
You had me, until your prediction. Barring something like NoKo using a Nuke, or any of the other potential world flashpoints turning into a shooting ear that scares people, I suspect you are wildly incorrect. In fact, if tax cuts actually happen, and it's looking like they will, the market will fire-off that second booster, and go even higher into the stratosphere.
In two or three years, when the easy fixes (like deregulation) are used-up, and the inevitable growth-related inflation (and attendant interest rate increases) finally slow things, THEN you will probably see a bubble burst.
I'm sure that YOUR worst nightmare is that we get to November of 2020, and the economy is still looking good. You should be prepared for that possibility (though if we do get that far down the road, a second Trump term will CERTAINLY not end well).
In deference to Andrew's comment, I am modifying my prediction as follows.
The gigantic crash will now be arriving before the end of next year.
1
Whether it makes sense to or not, the American people will give Trump and his policies credit for the roaring economy. Even though presidents have very little direct impact on economic cycles (yes, including Democrats), voters for some reason think that they do.
6
Economic growth and decline is mostly non-partisan over shorter periods of time.
As such, although I'm a Trump supporter, I don't think he really can take credit for the strong growth at this point.
But when the inevitable downturn comes, he doesn't get the blame either.
3
Despite the doom and gloom lobby, the economy is on a tear and the unemployment rate is way down. There are always hard luck stories and I am very sympathetic to the plight of the down and out but the vast majority of Americans are living better, longer and are richer than ever. I appreciate that "good news doesn't sell" and that many people, especially New Yorkers, love to complain, in fact it may be the number one hobby in the city. But the reality is that most of us have never had it better.
7
I think the author is confused over the factors involved here. GDP only measures how much and how often money changes hands in the economy and nothing about the true health of the economy. When an area gets devastated by a natural disaster, more money changes hands. Money comes out of savings or is injected into the economy by insurance companies and a lot of money changes hands rebuilding. This growth is not in spite of the storms but is because of the storms... It's called Devastation Economics and is the feeding grounds of Vulture Capitalists.
3
That's a constrained view point. Also expressed in the article is that we are at almost full employment with a lively job market, a rallying stock market, a sustained uptick in consumer confidence and strong exports.
3
He's also overlooking the facts that the current GDP growth is occurring, even though most economists think the storms took a 0.5 to 1.0% bite into GDP growth, and while government spending is DOWN.
Wait until the actual recovery spending starts, in those areas, during the holiday season, and all those dollars start changing hands, again!
Must the NYT commentariat turn every bit of news into a partisan exercise? I think we can be grateful to Mr. Obama for setting the table for this economic growth, and also praise Mr. Trump for thus far keeping the momentum going.
5
And who has reaped the rewards of this growth? I think we can all agree that it isn't the ever-shrinking ( own a home, have a car, educate your children, take a little vacation, save a little for your retirement) American-dream-middle class.
59
I disagree, it is precisely the American middle class who benefits the most from this economy. Blue collar workers, traditionally the working class, are having trouble as the economy leaves them behind, but the middle class is cooking with gas.
2
"Things have been looking up, economically, for much of the world, which is enjoying a rare moment of widespread expansion."
Before you pop the cork on the champagne, remember that one part of the world that is not enjoying the good times is the US middle class. Most Times readers are doing well, but they need to ask themselves, does my liberalism include empathy for those who are seeing none of the benefits of growth, and those who are losing ground?
And, how wise is it for my political party to ignore the lower three quintiles?
2
Why stop, now? Your political party might actually win an election, if they listened to you!
Fortunately for my party, even with the Trump anvil tied around our necks, the "new" leadership of the DNC will make sure that you fail, again. They're dirty, they're even farther to the left than the old (also crooked) leadership, and their ideas of policy are generally ideas that led to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
God forbid that people like Tim Ryan or Steve Bullock lead the DNC! They might actually win an election.
Obama did not have one year of 3% gdp growth after eight years of trying.
But obama did manage to double our national debt by spending $10 trillion
By the way, what exactly did America get for Obamas $10 trillion debt?
13
Obama also pulled us out of the recession which the Republican administration and Wall Street created. There was a time in 2008 when my wife and I were facing possible economic ruin. Then Obama was elected and stabilized the economy.
3
Are you really serious? What kind of economy did Obama inherit, and what kind of economy did Trump inherit?
Obama inherited an economy where George Bush had already done the heavy lifting to fix the housing disaster timebomb he inherited from Clinton.
Well I can tell you this. The high end audiophile industry is dead. Everything shut down in July. My sales died at the end of June. I have heard the same story of slumping sales from suppliers that feed the manufacturers and from a couple of other companies that make products for this industry.
Here is why this is significant. These expenditures are totally discretionary. Audio is a hobby. OK. Now, about half of sales are global. Those sales have dried up too. The customer base is middle class and upper middle class. These are the people that spend money. If they aren't buying, that means they are scared. Consumer confidence may be high, but do those folks spend money on discretionary items? I don't think so. Fear has griped my customer base on a global level.
The types of people that buy this type of equipment are usually better educated. I do have many deep red state customers. They are not buying either.
If the fear that has gripped my customer base spreads, then a recession is in our near future. Take note that June is when the Trump administration began to blow apart.
I wouldn't be surprised that these GDP figures have been doctored. Why wouldn't Trump cook the books? Facts no longer matter.
When 2008 hit sales did not drop like this. They were down 25%. I have never seen this steep and sudden a drop off in sales in 20 years. Something is going on and the something is Trump.
14
I agree and it's way more than Trump! It's the entire GOP who is fleecing this nation for the Koch's etc. My NYC purchasing power will go way down if the tax plan they want goes through.
Haven't we heard this story number of times. The Democrats make the economy good, and the Republicans benefit from the momentum and still manage to destroy the economy at the end of their term. Thanks to President OBAMA and his economic team for this good news.
18
Yes sir! Economy grows as thousands lose everything. I suppose the folks in Houston, Florida, Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands should be leading the cheers for this growth. Should we also expect further growth in the next quarter due to the uptick in needs for home construction, auto replacements and oh yes, lets not forget the growth in credit monitoring that is now needed by hundred of millions on Americans courtesy of Equifax.
I guess that growth of "the economy" is something that is good for businesses but not necessarily for people.
2
Don't forget the Santa Rosa, California fires. Another "growth" opportunity.
1
Let us not be euphoric yet! Our country has huge amounts of debt, which keeps rising. Upward mobility is almost non-existent. Economic growth has been excellent for the wealthy, leaving majority of the people out of it. As for the stock market, I see a bubble about to burst soon.
67
That investment bubble will burst within 18 months of any corporate tax cut.....I would put money on that.
Politicians always take credit for the good times. The people who see life as it really is should not listen to these reports of the good times. Travel around the country and keep your eyes open. There is poverty in rural America and towns are dying. Everyone is not participating in the good times, but unfortunately the people who do not contribute to the economy or benefit from it get left out of these statistics.
34
Only read the first sentence and have to jump in because you got it, and the headline, so massively wrong. Natural disasters trigger incredible amounts of spending to provide aid and rebuild. GDP is a poor tracker of the economy, but of course it is going to grow in response to that spending.
4
Did the Obama administration ever achieve a quarterly economic growth rate of 3% or better? We'll wait for an answer from the Democrats, liberals, and progressives who always sing his praises, but we will expect the sound of crickets in return.
14
Look at the GDP growth rate.
5
If you look at the first chart shown in the article, you can see that the answer is very clearly yes. There is 4Q 2009, 2Q 2010, 2Q and 4Q 2011, 3Q and 4Q 2013, 2Q and 3Q 2014 and 1Q 2015 which all appear to be at least 3%. In other words, over 1/4 of the quarters during the Obama administration were >= 3% growth. Then there is 3Q 2010, 1Q 2012, 1Q 2013, 2Q 2015 and 3Q 2016 which all appear just under 3%.
Also keep in mind that the president (any president) doesn't have that much control over the economy as a whole. We should avoid giving a single person too much credit for either the ups or downs in our economy. And don't forget that these latest numbers will be revised as new data is analyzed, and very easily could change.
4
Maybe you could tell us Trump's legislative achievements that have lead to this growth. Oh, that's right, he doesn't have any.
Yes...let’s celebrate the joys of 3% for the 1%. In California we can be especially gleeful that all those tremendous wild fires burned out homes so that developers and housing contractors can surf the wave of cash going into the building industry. Car salesmen are doing the Macarena. Business is great even if the quality of life for people is in the dumpster.
6
Do you have any evidence that the 3% annual growth in GDP all went to the 1%?
The bottom 1% of the US live better than 50% of the rest of the world. It's the first society in history where a problem of the poor is obesity. Wealth in productive societies gushes down to the least productive.
4
The least productive being the rich and the banks who are mostly paper pushers!
The failure to alter Obamacare, the failure to destroy the Dreamer rules, the failure, thus far, to rescind NAFTA, the failure to entirely disavow the nuclear deal with Iran and for that matter the failure to bomb North Korea, the strong possibility of failure at the proposed debt-exploding tax cut, the failure of a Muslim travel ban, the failure to finance a wall on the Mexican border...
Aside from the failure at timely assistance to Puerto Rico - perhaps Trump should take some credit - as long as he keeps failing - we all seem to be better off.
9
Three percent growth. Thanks President Trump, you are making America great again!
11
Continued growth, market at all time high, and the nation unable to fill over 6 million jobs because we are at "full employment."
But Republicans continue to campaign and to sell bad policy and more tax cuts on the need for more jobs and the nation falling apart.
At what point do the Trump supporters see that all the drama of purported strife is coming from the White House?
7
Cool. Now all the trump folks who voted because of "economic anxiety" should be way less anxious and should totally be able to stop self-medicating with heroin. Opioid crisis solved too. Sweet!
9
Thank you President Trump. You promised you would improve the economic situation and you have delivered.
11
What exactly did he do? I can't find his legislative achievements anywhere.
1
You might want to check Trump's dismantling of business-choking regulations as well as executive orders and rules imposed by Obama. That alone had a lot to do with optimism in the economy.
3
@Lex
He got rid of tons of regulations, savings businesses billions.
1
Trump touts good economic news as if it were possible only because of him; like a Rooster who thinks the sun rises because he crows in the morning. You can safely bet your bottom dollar that when the next bubble bursts, Rooster Trump will blame it on the chickens, and his 35% will cackle their approval of him, blindly, while being led to the slaughter house.
15
Um, every President responds to this report every time.
4
"let the good time roll" you say?
Record levels of debt / student loans (that drag well into adulthood)
Stagnant wages (has anyone had a good raise in years?)
Tax breaks for the rich
Savings accounts that don't grow
Unsustainable growth in the market (rich people call it a "correction", the rest of us call it a "catastrophe" since we don't have the depth to cover it)
I understand we're close to full-employment, but a lot of us are still left wondering if the "good times" will actually ever return for us or our children.
3
Full employment means everybody's working at McDonalds? Or is it as a Wall Mart greeter?
1
"Let the good times roll."??
The streets of my town are occupied by the homeless: camping along the state highway under trees, living in decaying motor homes and cars, wandering the streets, sleeping in random places along streets and railroad tracks, the city's main post office is barricaded with chain link fencing to discourage camping on its steps, yet that didn't prevent the campers from gathering alongside the building on the sidewalk (no public toilets in this area)...
I guess this is evidence of good times for all!
Let the good times roll! Yeah!
1
Yes, Santa Cruz should only be for the rich, not the poor and homeless. Police officers should just beat all of those homeless people off of the sidewalk so you can go pick up your mail. You really have it bad!
Taxes are strangling the economy.
The economy has been fantastic since I've taken over.
Wasn't it F. Scott Fitzgerald who said it's not possible to hold two opposing thoughts in your head?
He never met the current president...
5
Wait, how could this happen?
The Times resident economist Paul Krugman, said this was impossible.
22
You do realize the Trump economy started 26 days ago, October 1. It was the Obama Economy before that. A huge part of that is the healthcare expansion for all Americans, not the rich.
Krugman also said the the surest way to grow the economy was to pour huge amounts of dollars into a Big Government program to build defenses against an imaginary alien invasion.
Krugman also admitted his bias clouded his disasterous post-election stock market predictions. Will he reimburse those who lost out because they followed his biased advice?
Thanks to Trump.
11
“We are at full employment and we are in full swing, let the good times roll.” Sounds like the best reason I can think of to bail on the markets. Didn’t someone once say something similar in October 1929?
1
So rebuilding after a hurricane is expensive and adds to the GDP, but can that really be considered growth. If all your windows are broken and you buy new windows, that means you spend money, but you didn't "grow" anything. You are right back where you started. Unless Trump believes he personally caused the nature disasters that are raising GDP, I don't know what he is taking credit for. Are wages going up yet? This article doesn't touch on that.
1
Headline next month when the labor and growth numbers come out:
Growth Rate for 3rd Quarter Revised Down
1
Are we in a bubble or is this the new reality? As President Obama said, "If you succeed, we all succeed..." so I hope it continues, but the fall will be great...
If, perchance, the economy started to slump, would that be due to Obama's policies as well?
5
Unfortunately, Trump and his supporters will look at these numbers at face value. Forgotten, or perhaps never acknowledged, is how it was a Democratic president who got us back on our feet and actually saved us from the brink.
As this article accurately points out, "the good didn't have much to do with political changes" rather it was the fact that the economy has been improving globally.
But when all is said and done, I think now is the time for our economists to analyze how this growth is helping those folks in the Rust Belt and those in coal country. This economic paradigm neglects to address the still woeful state of affairs as related to health care, unaffordable housing, wages, and gainful employment. I see, and maybe I'm wrong, no improvement in our lifestyles just because of a Blow Hard and a soaring Wall Street. Main Street, when will you admit to the writing on the wall?
7
Let's clarify how we have gotten to our current economic opportunity.
Under Obama and the current leadership of the Federal Reserve, the economy has been growing steadily, unemployment decreased from 10% to 4.2%, and real wages are beginning to return to workers' wallets.
Why, therefore, does Trump even entertain replacing Yellen or any of the other board of Governors? Why do they need to turn back the Dodd-Frank bank regulations that have put the banks on solid ground and prevented them from repeating their own bad business practices? Exactly how has Obama's regulations on coal, the environment, implementation of Obamacare, consumer protection, workers' rights, Overtime, etc, etc, done damage to the economy? Why are the GOP and Trump so eager to reverse a course that has so plainly benefited our economy?
What we are witnessing is the result of Keynesian economics as practiced by Obama, Fed Chair Yellen (and former Fed Chair Bernanke), without the support of the GOP, but instead, complete obstruction by the GOP. If they want to reverse Obama's policies, they can't justify it on the merits of the results. Do we think race has something to do with it?
33
At some point in his administration the stock market index will go down. Who wants to bet me Trump won't take credit for the downturn like he did for the upturn?
11
I get your point and agree with your observation of Trump's dishonesty.
But what upturn? The market went up over 200% during the Obama administration. It was already trending upward.
1
We never needed tax cuts as the economy is recovered and progressing at a good but not overheating inflation riddled rate thanks to the great work of Yellin and the federal reserve. The Republican tax cuts are just another low attempt at buying votes and campaign "Donations" from the wealthy and corporations.
19
On one hand, Republicans say see how great the economy is doing.
On the other hand, they say we need to cut taxes for the wealthy to stimulate this sluggish economy.
And the Fox News audience doesn't even notice.
121
Are you not able to see how it might be doing ok now but could be much better?
4
Tax cuts will make things worse. For a recent example, see Kansas.
1
@TPierre Changstien
Republicans and Trump are not saying it is doing ok, they are saying it is 3% growth and doing GREAT!!!
Also look at this article for more details:
http://fortune.com/2017/08/30/donald-trump-springfield-mo-3-gdp/
It shows that Obama had 8 quarters of 3% growth or more and one of those with 5% growth.
And this is from Fortune, a conservative business magazine.
Also, take a look at the deficits the Republicans will be giving our children and grandchildren to pay just to the rich can accumulate more billions they won't even spend.
1
This is really the tail end of Obama's economy.
Trump hasn't contributed to a single piece of legislation of action that could have triggered the economy. The lag between decision to investment to operation requires one to two years. We'll know enough about Trump's economy next year.
48
It has nothing to do with legislation - it has everything to do with the confidence that businesses and consumers alike are feeling under a Republican administration, but then you're a liberal who thinks government must legislate progress.
11
When Obama was elected in 2008, he promised higher taxes, more regulation and higher energy prices. His first Secretary of energy promised $10/gallon gasoline taxes.
Obama's threats discouraged business investment and hiring, which is why we have had a limp recovery, despite the fact that the most severe recessions are generally followed by the most robust recoveries. You are absolutely correct that this is the tail end of the limp Obama recovery.
Trump has signed into law 14 bills passed under the Congressional Review Act. which permanently roll back regulations Obama attempted to impose. That is doing more to bolster growth than the $0.8 trillion Obama squandered on "stimulus." Businesses started planning their expansion on November 9, shocked upon awakening that their prayers had been answered and they had President Trump instead of Mrs. Clinton.
Gee, it's been almost a year since the election. Can't wait to see two years into the Trump Presidency.
Obama blamed Bush for the poor economy for the first four years of his Presidency. He was economically too illiterate to comprehend the destructiveness of his policies. So he blamed others. Obama followers are now going to claim credit for the economic success of the first six years of Trump's Presidency.
4
At least climate change will generate new car sales! Good job on considering all the economic growth we can get from stronger storms. The silver lining!! We can overlook the hundreds of people and thousands of pets (man's best friend) that are dead, and marvel at our 3% growth. In more seriousness, I find this article insensitive. Greed in the face of a problem that disrupts children's futures is wrong. This article isn't the only place I've spotted this new attitude that gleefully detects sales opportunities in the face of stronger storms. Mr.Pruitt talked about the economic opportunities to rebuild Houston's infrastructure. It's enough to weep, but I know there are many others who perceive the hypocrisy of growth created in these conditions. Growth unrelated to the storm is a puzzle. Particularly the stock market which seems to grow even as we find scapegoats to our problems and withdraw from international cooperation. There will be a price, there always is.
32
Pointing out that there are business opportunities associated with helping flood damage victims to recover does not reflect greed. Only the truly hardhearted or malignant pessimists would take it that way.
Optimists rejoice that there is a silver lining to offset some of the grief.
3
Do we trust the figures coming out of the Commerce Department? Everything touched by Trump has been corrupted.
9
NO! I don't trust anything that comes from DT or this administration!
1
Thanks Obama!
93
Sorry, Obama apologists. You have to give credit where credit is due. The government no longer has its boot on the neck of business in the form of over regulation. A 3% GDP is the result. If we get the middle class and corporate tax relief promised, we might even hit 4%.
35
Anne...have you analyzed the GOP 'tax reform' bill ?
It's a giant budget-destroying billionaire Christmas gift with some chocolate sprinkles and shredded Medicare for the middle class.
Sure you can pollute the air, water and earth more than before and you can't sue banks when they rip you off anymore, but that's more like self-mutilation than economic growth.
Republicans are very good at destroying economies; be patient.
126
You are wrong. Comparison of a quarterly rates and annual rates is a bit of apples and oranges. And per the Fortune Aug 30 2017 article, the quarterly rate during the Obama administration was 3% EIGHT times.
21
Did you read the article? It says:
“This is happening globally — there isn’t a single major economy that is in recession,” said Mr. Zandi, the Moody’s economist. “This was an economic train that left the station a year or two ago. Regardless of who was president, we would have seen this.”
And then read this article. Note it is from Fortune magazine, not some hippy Green Peace site:
http://fortune.com/2017/08/30/donald-trump-springfield-mo-3-gdp/
18
Despite his atrocious personality, Trump is doing a good job. Let the smears by nasty progressives commence. Maybe you can drum up some more Russia lies.
23
Since you think Trump is doing a good job at 3% growth, you must've thought Obama did a great job in creating 10 million jobs for our economy from 2010 to 2016.
3
My dog could do a better job. What "job" is he doing exactly. Trump has never worked a day in his life. The phrase "Idle Rich" comes to mind.
2
You are funny....just keep believing...
2
The economy is growing and so is fascism in the good old USA. Human and environmental rights are being overturned as I write these words and you want to talk about 3 percent.
14
I guess all we had to do was get rid of Obama and his war on capitalism. Now get the corporate tax cuts and watch the economy soar. Really bad news for our democrat "progressive" friends.
17
President Obama inherited a massive mess from the GOP and manage to divert a Depression. Thank you President Obama for steering us on the right course.
190
Thanks Obama
79
Obama's economy is still going strong, but the insults and insanity from the White House are going to kill the value of the dollar. People will get hired to fill the new factory orders, but their paycheck won't go as far. We need to protect the value of the dollar.
7
Well, it's all okay then. When do I get my tax cut?
3
Sorry, only if you are the top 0.1%.
Well, ok, maybe a little something if you are the top 1%.
Is this some good news that I see in the headlines? I had better refresh this browser.
6
Hmmm.....3%. Something is a bit "cofeve" about this.
So even with all the unforeseeable disasters, the govt reports exactly 3%, right even with Trump's optimistic objective.
“On a yearly basis, as you know, the last administration, during an eight-year period, never hit 3 percent,"
So he just happened to beat Obama?
Again, something is a bit "cofeve" about this.
9
Now, as we grow, what we need to look at next is increased competition. With more and more high profile mergers and acquisitions industry competition all across the board is decreasing. Not that it helps to have aggregators in the tech industry, Google, Netflix, and Facebook to name a few.
In addition to competition, we need to drastically increase both R&D and research into basic scientific theory and application. As Romer '90 showed, these are the ways we can increase GDP growth further. What better time to start investing in future growth than right now?
12
Emma....the Republican is preparing to invest heavily in billionaire and corporate bank accounts and massive deregulation of corporate predators.
What better time to start investing into the next recession/depression than right now ?
Grand Old Poison 2017
30
So the economy is continuing to grow -- and it was growing for years before DJT took the helm. Now would be a good time to use that presumably growing tax revenue to help those who haven't enjoyed the benefits of growth, to invest in education and infrastructure for continued growth, to guarantee healthcare for all Americans so they are healthy enough to work and don't see their income gains eaten up by higher insurance premiums and drug prices. But no. Republicans want to cut taxes for those who have done the best and cut support for those who have suffered the most. Shame on them.
103
The Republicans want to cut taxes for the middle class. The poor don’t need a tax cut because they don’t pay taxes. But you knew that, right?
4
Hmmm...I follow the news pretty close, I am hearing about 1.5 trillion handout that almost exclusively benefits the .01% and to a lesser degree the 1%, paid for by cutting programs that mostly benefit the rest of Americans. What am I missing here do you think?
7
No, the Republicans want to cut taxes for the rich and super rich, and for foreigners who have invested in US stocks. The small cuts for only a part of the middle class are an afterthought and a fig leaf to hide what they are really doing.
Those foreigners are going to benefit more than most middle class Americans from the Republican tax plan.
7
"At the same time, with a weak dollar making American goods more competitive abroad, international trade contributed positively to output for the third quarter in a row. Imports decreased."
Imagine how good the US export picture would look if Donald Trump wasn't consumed with trying to destroy global trade agreements between the US and other countries. Thanks for nothing, Donald.
12
“There are no real headwinds to growth for the first time since the expansion began (under President Obama after the catastrophic Bush-Cheney Depression),” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “
“This is happening globally — there isn’t a single major economy that is in recession,” said Mr. Zandi, the Moody’s economist. “This was an economic train that left the station a year or two ago. Regardless of who was president, we would have seen this.”
Don't worry, America, Republican economic malpractice and tax cuts for the rich will derail this locomotive once the anti-Midas-touch-Trump rubber stamps his bankrupt signature on some trickle-down poison.
The Trump Slump is coming; be patient !
163
We have become so politicized that some here seem to be rooting for an economic downturn.
9
The people who shorted the market on election night with certainty that a Trump presidency was the beginning of the end are down 25%, basically the same amount as the crash of 1987. But you keep being patient.
5
Progressives - rooting for a poor economy just so they can stick it to Trump. That is sick, man.
6
Before self accolades emminate from the Trump dump, lets all view the adjoining GDP growth chart for some sobering enlightenment. It clearly shows that during the Obama years, steady high growth occurred and the following Trump quarters were actually a tad lower. With that caveat, I am still happy we are experiencing positive growth for the benefit of the nation.
42
Read this, Patrick. The wealthiest are winning - WE aren't:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/26/worlds-witnessing-a-new...
Ever since the Affordable Care Act was passed and raised taxes on the top 2% of income earners, transferring billions of dollars each year from the top 2% of income earners to the poorest 20% in the form of healthcare services, our economy has been booming. Since the tax increases under the Affordable Care Act we have had historical job growth, stock market growth and record corporate profits.
Republican efforts to eliminate the Affordable Care Act in order to cut taxes on the top 2% of earners; or these plans for a huge tax cut for the rich, will take our economy right back to the malaise we experienced under George W Bush. We need higher taxes and more investment in health, education and infrastructure, not less.
80
3% growth is an improvement but not where it should be. In order to get over 4% next year we need the proposed tax cuts implemented now!
15
>In order to get over 4% next year we need the proposed tax cuts implemented now!
Your data that establishes this cause (proposed tax cuts) and effect (get over 4% next year)?
Where is the verifiable evidence?
12
for profit maximizing corporations, decisions regarding hiring, output, wages and prices which maximize pretax profits are the same as those that maximize after-tax profits. Thus, changes in the corporate income tax rate will not have any impact on hiring, output, wages and prices.
Lowering corporate tax rates would not result in any additional hiring, growth in wages or output. The entire incidence of a corporate income tax falls on the owners of the corporation, to the extent they are pension funds or other institutions the incidence falls on them. If a corporate income tax is a percentage of pretax income, none of the corporate income tax can ever be passed on to employees or customers. That is because any hiring, wage or price decision that maximizes pretax profits would also maximize after-tax profits.
If a profit-maximizing rational corporation is charging $10 for an item that is because it is more profitable to charge $10 than $9.99 or $10.01 taking into account market demand and competitive pressures. Thus, $10 is the price at which pretax profits are maximized. If a corporate income tax is levied as a percent of pretax profits, $10 is still the price that maximizes both pretax and after-tax profits. Thus, the tax can not cause any change in the price and is not passed on to consumers. The same applies to a corporation that is paying a wage that maximized its pretax profits, which is also the wage that maximizes its after..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4067359
6
Tax cuts that won't help you in any way. You live in New Jersey? Kiss your state and local deductions goodbye.
16
Predictions . . . can't live without making them, don't know what to say as a result when they don't pan out. They're like that itchy mosquito bite you know it's best not to scratch but you just can't help yourself, regardless of the scar it leaves.
Hurricanes create a lot of work too. Roofs are replaced, interiors gutted and renovated to prevent mold, cars are replaced, etc. The work to repair the damage from last year's Hurricane Matthew to Tybee Island, for example, are just being completed. The Corp of Engineers will soon arrive for beach replenishment and sand dune repair. Megabucks. This work may not completely offset losses to residents and local businesses, and not all dollars on construction repairs will be spent locally, but it lessens the economic impact nevertheless.
12
The Keynesian “Broken Window “ theory has been thouroughly discredited. The money spent on repairing broken windows or hurricane damage would have been spent elsewhere had the hurricane not occurred. If the Broken Window theory were true, we could boost economic activity by nuking our own cities, right?
6
Thank you President Obama.
226
Thank you President Trump!
They said he would never make 3%.
And here we are.
4
Ah yes, the only president since 1900 to not have a year with 3% gdp growth is responsible for the current upswing.
4
Knew just knew that the reality-deniers and proponents of an alternative universe would be out.
Gee did you say "Thank You President BUSH" when the recession ended in June 2009? After all Obama had only been in office 5 months (whereas Trump has been in 8 months during the time of the GDP report) so it must have been Bush
Yeah figured you gave St Obama -and not Bush - the credit for the end of recession in 2009.....
Ergo you can NOT - consistent with your prior position - give Obama credit for anything now.
What drivel....... the endless ST Obama savior of the universe nonsense
9
Any significant change to an economy the size of that of the United States takes time and perseverance. The Fed, under Janet Yellen, has helped to guide the U.S. economy on an upward trajectory of growth and employment. This was no easy feat having to navigate any number of political tempests. When Trump decides who will be our next Fed Chairperson, I hope his pick is up for the job and not just another good ol’ rich white male looking out for all the other good ol’ rich white males. We already have plenty of those jobs filled.
26
Janet Yellen's term as chair of the Federal Reserve Board expires next February 3rd. In addition to the chair, there will be a number of opportunities for President Trump to appoint new Federal Reserve Board Governors relatively soon, including two current vacancies. One could envision a possible doomsday scenario for the financial markets and then likely the economy arising from very unfortunate choices by President Trump regarding appointments to the Federal Reserve Board. Logically, that should not happen. However, everything that has happened in the past year may not have followed logic.
Logically, a low interest rate policy would improve the already long odds against Trump's budget assumptions of 3% real growth. Low interest rates would also help the trade deficit. However, President Trump may not be able to resist the temptation to reward some of his early supporters by appointing monetary "hawks" to the Federal Reserve Board who would raise interest rates precipitously. Since most mainstream Republican economists were originally in the "Never Trump" camp during the primaries, some monetary crackpots were able to have their populist views heard in the Trump campaign and administration.
The closing Trump advertisement in the election railed against a supposed cabal of international elite financial figures who were claimed to be causing America's decline. It pictured financier George Soros, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yelle..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4082278