Is it economics or ideology?
Isn't everybody for themselves the controlling idea for Republicans and who they represent? Isn't it essentially survival of the richest?
Isn't their favored religious sect Calvinism, that the rich are predestined for heaven and the poor aren't? Rich is good and better, poor are despicable losers. God wants it that way. Can't be helped. The rich are rich not because the system is rigged (which it is) but because god wills it.
Which makes it infallible.
The economics of Calvinism has a single purpose: keep the rich rich. And its corollary is punish the poor because poverty is god's sign that the poor are hell bound. So why not make their lives hellish now?
It's a simple ends justifies the means.
If you're an economist in service to the rich, your job is to justify an economic system that efficiently produces inequality. It certainly isn't to insure that competitive markets function to balance supply and demand and set value.
Those who espouse supply-side, trickle down, no-tax, government reduced to defense and law enforcement (to protect the rich and victimize those who aren't), and slashing social spending (which the rich don't need, just those god-forsaken takers) know who they work for.
So why not make up stuff, doodle on a napkin and eureka you've developed a rationale for obscene wealth that isn't based on the religious notion of Intelligent Design?
It's called voodoo economics for lack of reason.
12
John Kelly may have been a Marine general who lost a son to combat, but he has proved to the world - until this date at least - that he is a coward. Any person who accuses someone publicly of being a liar and an opportunist only then to discover that those comments were in fact incorrect and wrong, owes a duty to the accused to set the record straight. If that means being publicly humiliated, so be it. That is part and parcel of being a honest human being. For John Kelly to stay quiet is pure cowardice and the longer he remains quiet on this subject, the worse his cowardice becomes.
35
And you didn't even have to write "See? I made a joke!" following the last sentence. Well written.
6
So much for General John the 'savior'. Just another Trump apologist.
9
Too late!
If you could convince the trouble-maker Mister Mxyzptlk to say his name backwards, he would disappear, at least so goes the legend. Perhaps if we all chanted "Pmurt" the same would happen to our "president" and his party. They would all return to their fifth dimension, never to bother us again with their anti-humane view of the world.
10
Dear Dr. Krugman:
I used to worry about nuclear war "over there". Thanks to you I now have to really worry about our economy designed by Trump. 'Tis a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying catastrophe.
8
Good column, but I wish he'd do one of Trump's stock market claims. Something along these lines:
Real value is NOT opinion. Gamblers' opinions create NO real value in the stock market.
But #PresidentTweety will create a crash.
More verbosely, Capitalism is dead. Communism, too. What we have now is corporate cancerism of the kleptocrats, by the kleptocrats, for the kleptocrats.
In the land of thieves, #PresidentTweety thinks he is the king, but I think the biggest and "best" thief in today's world is Putin. Gawd help us all.
Oh, wait. There is no gawd but profit, and Donald Trump is NO prophet.
Just going off on Trump's latest insane claim that the stock market has "created value" because the big gamblers share the deluded opinion that each of them can sell his shares to bigger suckers before the crash. The YUGE delusion is that each of them thinks he will "know" when to cash in and get out. Just like in 1929.
Yeah, a few of the losing gamblers might wind up jumping out of windows, but you can safely bet that none of them will go to prison. The wholesale suffering will be the regular Joes and Janes like you and me, even including the mushrooms who Putin conned into voting for #PresidentTweety.
By the way, the leading prophets of profit are Apple, Gilead, the google, Exxon, and some YUGE gamblers. That's according to Forbes for 2016, where "YUGE gamblers" is a generic term for big financial institutions gambling with OTHER people's money, which made up most of the list
3
Trump, infallible? I guess the two of you finally found common ground.
He'll be sure to thank you on Twitter shortly.
Trump's refusal to recognize reality, and accept responsibility for his actions, has obviously become de facto for his entire administration. These are classic characteristics of a sociopath - a very mentally ill person who most assuredly should not be given governance power. Consider Kim Jung Un, Idi Amin, Joseph Stalin and Adolph Hitler, and Joe McCarthy, among others. Repeated lying, doubling and tripling down on the lies, SHOULD be recognized by any sane person. People who do this are dangerous to themselves and to everyone around them. The "base", those Cult-of-Trump members who follow him, by their acceptance of his actions, are complicit in them. There is little shame in admitting when one is incorrect, and learning from their mistakes, but deliberately choosing to follow lie after lie, expecting different consequences, shows a universal lack of moral compass amongst these people.
If Trump were to be ignored, to become merely an asterisk in history, as he eventually will be, his followers will have to find another cause - hopefully one that is rational and productive; supportive of the Democracy under which America was created. Until then, active legal measures need to be instituted to prevent permanent harm, and possible destruction, of the United States. I foresee Constitutional revisions to limit the power of the Executive to do such harm in the future. This will be the legacy of Trumpworld, and continued shame for all of his family.
3
ECONOMIC ANXIETY CAUSED GERRYMANDERING AND RUSSIAN HACKING.
Oh wait...
2
I'm working on a mathematical formula to depict this Trump Infallibility model.
It looks something like this:
(T)rump x (I)nfallibility = (Z)ero : (Z)ero x {f} / (Y)ou
Which suggests that the likelihood of President Trump taking any particular action is calculated precisely to the degree to which it will annoy The New York Times in general and throw Paul Krugman in particular in to a full-on tizzy.
1
First two rules for any performer who wants to command the stage:
1) Never apologize
2) Never explain
The president and the members of his administration are players on the world stage, the biggest one of all. They can't apologize. They can't explain. To do so would be to lose face and that simply cannot happen. So they move on or lie, write a new script or improvise one on the fly, never apologize, never explain. Nothing else matters.
Except this isn't a play and the world stage is not for pretenders and especially not for tales told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Not in times like these.
4
Johnny boy, you have broken the heart of the United States of America.
If you don't have the facts straight. Zip it.
Johnny, Senator McCain is three times the man that you once were.
2
The think about the GOP is for at least the last 40 years they have been the anti-Enlightenment Party. One would think that trying to solve hard problems through intense thinking and experimentation would be like discovering breathing, but no, the GOP despises the pointy heads and their tedious reasons for everything that so often end up improving the lives of most people at the expense of the deserving rich. Apparently the way to go is the good old days before reason ruined everything, when might meant right and the riff raff believed what their betters told them to believe. For a country born from and created by children of the Enlightenment and spent hundreds of years spreading and promoting it is a profoundly evil and anti-American philosophy.
1
Admitting a mistake ends discussion of a topic. This would make room for the next topic, which may be "Russia" or "Trump Family Finances". BAD!
3
"We are ruled by men..." "Ruled"? "Men"? I don't think so.
6
Kelly is in charge of the calendar and the secretarial pool. Why he thinks he should be attacking public figures is beyond me. Kelly is just another pompous general who has minimal skills to bring to a political white house. Oh, I served.....
7
Even with all the vileness Trump has committed, it is true that the congenial George W. Bush has exceeded Trump in villainy.
Trump threatens the world with nuclear annihilation by force of stupidity, ignorance and arrogance, but George W. Bush actually did deliberately, deceptively, and ignorantly launch a war of aggression which killed 100,000 human beings.
12
I would refer to it as the Doctrine of Trumpapal Infallibility!
1
Krugman has forgotten that the cardinal rule of RW Republicanism is to repeat a lie continually until people believe it.
11
Thanks to the link to the open letter to Bernanke.
I looked at the list of signers.
I already was aware that anybody who would be a member of AEI or Manhattan Inst completely lack any credibility. I was not aware that the Hoover Inst (named after the president who completely mishandled the crash of 1929) is in the same category as AEI.
Why is Kristol one the signers? This guy is no economist!
7
We are being led by fools, so, please don't expect anything but foolishness for the next 3 years and 3 months.
God help us.
11
Just a small point: it's not just men at the White House who won't admit mistakes, the White House also has women who don't, or worse.
7
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
Don't forget women, for example Betsy DeVos.
14
It was said of the French Bourbon dynasty: they never forgot anything, and they never learned anything. That can well be said of our new con-man King . . . and equally well of the lackeys that serve him—Kelly and Huckaby-Sanders among many others in the White House and Congress.
7
What kind of person is physically/mentally incapable of ever admitting that they've made a mistake? Of apologizing? Why, our "president," of course.
Elections have consequences. And we are paying the price. Bigly.
7
When will Paul Krugman not write a column about the lack of U.S. inflation? I am almost hoping for an inflationary period just so he would have a new topic to write about.
I cannot resist pointing out that this diatribe against "men who never admit error, never apologize, and, crucially, never learn from their mistakes" is written by a man who backed Hillary Clinton in 2008, and then turned around and did it again in 2016.
4
I remember quite well that Dubya, Cheney, Rummy, Condi, et al., also never admitted error or apologized. Seems to be a Republican characteristic.
5
LOL, one of the signers of the letter to Bernanke was Kevin Hassett, now chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, author of the notorious Dow 36,000 and member of the always wrong club. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/29/the-always-wrong-club/
3
I am reminded of a car commercial of some years back.....was it for Isuzu? where there was a disclaimer plastered on the screen as the salesman talked: He's Lying! That is DJT. What I don't understand is why so many people are willing to lie for DJT. Sean Spicer, Sarah Sanders, John Kelly.....the list goes on and on. What is wrong with these people that they continually prop up a pathological liar? He's not even clever about it. DJT always defaults to accusing every other person around of telling lies, like a particularly nasty adolescent boy. Ewww.
8
John Kelly was supposed to be the adult in the "adult day care center." Turns out he's just another liar.
9
"I face up to my mistakes. But I guess I'm just old fashioned that way."
Sounds to me like you have retained a "sacred value". Something the people in the White House have never had although they speak of it as if they have it by accusing others of not having it.
Thank you.
3
"Easy money, he declared, was part of a conspiracy to “bail out fiscal policy,” that is, an effort to help President Barack Obama."
I think you've hit on something here: on planet GOP, anything that made Obama look good was bad by definition. The fact that it was actually good for the nation is irrelelvant.
8
A Reagan quote, "You ain't see nothin' yet", offers an uncomfortable thought for the next three years.
2
Look at the bright side. If trump nominated Taylor to head the Fed and he and the trumpets quickly fouled up the economy then maybe even the trump base will dump the dumb trump.
You may say, but that brings a lot of sufferings to the people. That is certainly true but then the trump and the trumpets have already brought a lot of sufferings to the people so ridding them will be worth it.
2
tRump appointees are just running dogs for a governance which may kill us all. Why mince words?
1
"Trumphal Infallibility" is just a symptom of Trumphal Narcissism where everything you do is great and beyond reproach or criticism. And, if any do challenge you, they are worthy of withering contempt where your inability to show empathy is manifest in the cruelty of your remarks. This is a major "character flaw" unlike the ideological or theoretical rigidity of economists like John Taylor. Unfortunately, we have just such a person in the Oval Office who appears to have put in place a cast of similarly flawed characters from Attorney General Jeff Sessions to EPA Director Scott Pruitt to Education Secretary Betsy DeVos who are "in positions of policy responsibility."
2
"That kind of behavior makes it all too likely that you’ll keep making the same mistakes; but more than that, it shows something wrong with your character. And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility." Alas.....
Nixon, Halderman, North, Atwater, Reagan, Cheney, bush ii, Flynn, t rump, Kelly...... it's a long list of men with character flaws that would never get them hired to top positions on their own in the real world.
But in the world of republican Dumnassistan they are looked upon with awe and reverence. As I said.....Alas!
4
This is one of Paul Krugman's best. Thank you.
2
Ah, remember, never have to say your sorry.... Neither do I. These fools will always be fools and the great pretender will choose one by throwing a dart or listing to faux. It won't be to benefit the country. More likely to line the pockets of the rich with whom he is in bed, along with the rest of his cabinet. He will pick the worst. No doubt.
1
The bus is being driven by madmen and is going over the ledge and into the canyon Paul. Everyone knows. The smart are bracing for disaster; the dumb voted for Trump, but they are all on the same bus. Doomed.
Let's just get it over with....
6
And men with character flaws should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility.
But what did America do.
We (or they) put into the office of the presidency one of the biggest character flawed personalities in the world as our president.
Maybe it's the revenge of the ignorant, but it's going to be those people who will suffer the most.
And why did most do it?
Because this is their way of trying to wipe out of the memory and legacies of the first black president?
Yes, blacks have throughout history been shown that they have leadership skills.
Many schools just choose not to acknowledge that fact.
In school, we were taught of the many blacks that were killed or maimed because they dared to learn on their own to read and write the new language they were exposed to.
For years blacks were deemed not able to play big-league sports because they were too stupid to learn the rules or play as 'superiorly' as white players.
I don't know what it is about whites that many can't accept that blacks are just as intelligent as they.
Now, with Trump, I suspect that that huge recession/depression that Obama helped deter 8 years ago will come to pass.
As well as the US getting involved in yet another unnecessary war.
Krugman is right.
We never learn.
3
Slowly but surly Trump is getting closer to an area he has some knowledge and expertise in ....... declaring bankruptcy.
18
A person incapable of saying "I am sorry" or "I was wrong" has no business being POTUS.
9
The "other" real question is - why is Stanford employing a failed economist like John Taylor?
10
Now that you mentioned John Taylor, for sure trump will appoint him head of the Fed
6
I have the perfect choice for Fed Chair, although we would certainly miss your columns.
5
Taylor sounds just like Trump's kind of guy.
"Why let facts and evidence get in the way of claims?"
11
Those who excuse Trump's poor performance by asserting that he is fulfilling his campaign promises to wreck the archaic old dysfunctional system are ignoring the real damage he is doing, far more than anyone in our history. He is conducting his private businesses and using taxpayers' money to enrich them without any restraint about avoiding conflicts of interest. He is undermining nearly three quarters of a century of foreign policies which have brought the world more peace and prosperity than any time previously in recorded history, and he is undermining democratic institutions and our rule of law with a silly complacency that reflects a broad kind of stupidity by a huge proportion of our citizens who seen to misunderstand what makes this a free and prosperous country. We are a great and powerful nation but a failure of the people to hold to it's legal foundations and principles will destroy it.
13
Look, far be it from me to imply that Trump is not created from something so ugly we have yet to form the words to name it, but seriously Paul, people in power with no concept that they are not infallible is not a new concept. See, I made a funny, too! Trump is hardly the first person with difficulty wrapping their brain around the idea that they might make a mistake.
2
What could possibly be wrong about being against bailing out Obama's fiscal policy or helping Obama?
Even if John Taylor was wrong on his theory, wrong on his formula, wrong on his policy prescriptions & wrong not to admit he was wrong, he couldn't go wrong with Trump if he claimed it was about denying help for Obama.
Federal Reserve & its rates, even its existence goes over most everyone's heads.
But the notion that 'good for Obama = bad & bad for Obama = good' is infallibly Trumpal & entirely black & white (so to speak).
3
Sort of like central bankers, right Paul?
Trump has made a good start on destroying everything else in our country. Now it is time for the Fed and the stock market. He will surely appoint another unqualified ultraconservative wacko that lives in the GOP alternate universe. Time to back out of the stock market & save your retirement funds with the hope the world will still exist in 39 months.
6
Dr. Paul, you didn`t need to make a joke about John Kelly`s error that has caused a social media hurricane in America for the past week. What we - your choir - would most appreciate is your proposition for repealing, replacing, ousting, impeaching General Kelly`s commander in chief, Donald Trump. What is, is: that our Empire of the United States of America has devolved into a dog and pony show featuring `Trumplan Infalliability`. With you, we hope and pray that the disaster ahead (the removal of Donald Trump from our 45th presidency) won`t bring ruin upon us all. You are old-fashioned, our Griot Krugman, facing up to your mistakes, admitting them, and learning from them. Chances are slim to none that General John Kelly and Sarah Huckabee Sanders will face up to their colossal mistakes trying to defend their president. The whole catastrophe for America and her dis-unified people is that a man of no character was voted into our presidency. The cards are laid and now must be played.
3
I have nothing to add re Taylor. Sounds like he'll fit right in with Trump's dishonorable hangers-on.
But regarding Kelly, I think one can be more explicit:
John Kelly, a retired four-star general, is a coward.
He can't handle the truth about himself.
Given his self-absorbed pious claptrap about what's sacred, and trading on his military experience so that he can wear brass gravitas on his sleeve, he might well be an introverted narcissist -- an interesting match with his malignant narcissist boss.
2
Trump is a sad and unable being.
General Kelly -Don't sacrifice yourself Sir, just say "No."
2
Recently I saw an interview on CSPAN book tv with Lanny Ebenstein about his book "Chicagonomics". It is a history on the Chicago school of economis. To summarize he stated that economists agree that market based wconomic systems have won, the world is embracing free market systems. The he went on to say despite the contributions of Freidman, Hayak and others toward the end of their careers they turned away from classical liberal economics to libertarian economics. The US is the only developed economy that has embraced libertarian economics. Ebenstein made a case for the role of government in managing the rules of the marketplace. It is obvious the gop has embraced libertarian economics to the detriment of economic inequality and the middle class.
It is time we stop following failed ideas and quit bashing our government and make it work for everyone. There are some big donors to the republican party who do agree and would like to limit the ability of citizens to shape the rules. Maintaining and independent fed is one.
4
Academics are never wrong: they write second editions.
Nothing to add re Taylor. Sounds like he'll fit right in with Trump's dishonorable hangers-on.
But regarding Kelly, I think one can be more explicit: John Kelly, a retired four-star general, is cowardly in that he can't handle the truth about himself.
He is hiding behind his self-absorbed pious claptrap about what's sacred, and his military experience that he wears like brass gravitas on his sleeve.
1
There are few, if any, new versions of "The Emperor's New Clothes". The story is timeless and offers a profound lesson.
Mr. Krugman only sees mistakes in others' predictions or policies. He is infallible. He predicted the housing bubble while also recommending it in 2002:
“To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble."
On deflation in 2010: “…And what these measures show is an ongoing process of disinflation that could, in not too long, turn into outright deflation ... Japan, here we come.”
In 2008 he proclaimed Europe would do better than the US: ... tales of a moribund Europe are greatly exaggerated. ... The fact is that Europe’s economy looks a lot better now — both in absolute terms and compared with our economy.” Greece went bankrupt after this pearl of wisdom.
And the list goes on. Of course, he later explained what he truly meant. Krugman writes: “…the insistence on clinging to false ideas and refuted claims, no matter what...” But he is different.
1
Abbreviated column: Black really is white, cold really is hot is hot, wrong really is is right, lies really are are truth, and economic mysticism makes really good, really good, economic policy.
1
Being Republican means you never to say you are sorry - or wrong.
2
Not to go OT, but Cheney and Condi Rice still insist there were WMDs in Iraq
2
Infallibility game is not Trump's speciality. This game is played in every - ex quasi democratic, now autocratic - regimes in the world. (Russia, Hungary, Turkey etc...) Those autocrats know their voter base like infallible figures and they simply feed them what they want. Some say never admitting mistakes game is from Goebbels playbook...
2
Truly one of your cutest headlines yet, PK---Trumpal not Papal Infallibility? I see.
Gop? Interest rates? Whatever---be sure to include the latest DT/GOP outrage to get our blood boiling—after a week of 24/7 of media coverage of same..
What a bunch of badies, imagine never apologizing---oh, the outrage! Now we wait for the next outrage, next week from DT/GOP – a columnist’s dream, providing weekly despicable, contemptible statements for caustic, acerbic columns and our emotional catharsis.
Interest rates?! But We the People are getting NO interest on whatever paltry savings we do have. We gotta risk the stock market. When’s the Next Crash? Happy retirement? What’s PKs solution to that crisis?
We need a few solution proposals that are constructive, concrete and actionable. We’re painfully aware of the character flaws of those now in power.
Er, how do we get them out of power? What might the ‘party of opposition’ propose that will put them in power instead? Thank you for any suggestions.
See NYT book review: “On the Road With the Casualties of the Great Recession”….older workers/retirees trying to “surviving America.”
People who once had good jobs--- “Tens of thousands are the "Okies of the Great Recession”: grandparents living in school buses and vans seeking seasonal work cleaning toilets at campgrounds, picking blueberries in Kentucky, sometimes for wages, sometimes for just a parking spot.”
What’s the Democrats solution for 2018/2020?
2nd try:
Truly one of your cutest headlines yet, PK---Trumpal not Papal Infallibility? I see.
Gop? Interest rates? Whatever---be sure to include the latest DT/GOP outrage to get our blood boiling—after a week of 24/7 of media coverage of same..
What a bunch of badies, imagine never apologizing---oh, the outrage! Now we wait for the next outrage, next week from DT/GOP – a columnist’s dream, providing weekly despicable, contemptible statements for caustic, acerbic columns and our emotional catharsis.
Interest rates?! But We the People are getting NO interest on whatever paltry savings we do have. We gotta risk the stock market. When’s the Next Crash? Happy retirement? What’s PKs solution to that crisis?
We need a few solution proposals that are constructive, concrete and actionable. We’re painfully aware of the character flaws of those now in power.
Er, how do we get them out of power? What might the ‘party of opposition’ propose that will put them in power instead? Thank you for any suggestions.
See NYT book review: “On the Road With the Casualties of the Great Recession”….older workers/retirees trying to “surviving America.”
People who once had good jobs--- “Tens of thousands are the "Okies of the Great Recession”: grandparents living in school buses and vans seeking seasonal work cleaning toilets at campgrounds, picking blueberries in Kentucky, sometimes for wages, sometimes for just a parking spot.”
What’s the Democrats solution 2018/2020?
"Trumpal infallibility — the insistence on clinging to false ideas and refuted claims, no matter what...." Which brings us to the subject of John Kelly. What?
"... it’s much worse if you can never bring yourself to admit past errors and learn from them....; but more than that, it shows something wrong with your character."
So, General Kelly reveals he is a high priest in the Trump cult of brazen degenerates, humans with despicable inhuman character; products of evolution gone wrong. Both used lies to attack Gold Star families who mourn the ultimate sacrifice of their loved ones. Both made ad hominem attacks on innocent people to serve their own vanity. Both refuse to admit their "errors" because they are intentional disgusting, hurtful LIES which demean the sacrifices of all who wear the American uniform and make personal sacrifices for our country. While Trump is guilty of all seven deadly sins, Kelly shares at least the sins of pride and wrath. But the more time spent with Trump may reveal more sins within his flawed character. Mr. Kelly get out while you can! (You are certainly not serving the interests of America.)
We are witnessing the revenge of evolution. Mankind is destroying the earth and Nature is striking back. Donald J Trump is the evolutionary mistake of Judas Iscariot mating with the Satan Snake (to claim orangutan ancestry would be an outrageous, STUNNING insult to orangutans).
2
trump lies and the media stares into space
to serve trump is to put your integrity in the Bermuda Triangle
kelly is the empty barrel
2
Paul Krugman you are right on with this. But we are now 10 months into this thing and I am already sick to my eyeballs reading about this loser. It is such a tragedy that we all have to fill our heads with this egomaniacs shortcomings. From his ethical lapses, to his inner corruption and self dealing, to behaving like an arrogant prince, to womanizing and sexual harrassment, to his lack of epistemological rigor and general intellectual corruption. Keep shedding light so that even the lowest white worm of an American can see the snake who occupies the highest office. Maybe we can chop the head off the snake and clear the land of this corruption.
2
Right wing white supremacist men HAVE to be that way, because there is so much evidence that whites are not better than other races, and that men are not better than women.
They have to be blind to new information, new ideas, in order to keep that mind set. It's who they are.
Kelly is despicable. A man of honor? Ha.
Donald J. Trump should make public his tax returns. I'm certain they are infallible, just like everything he says and does. There would be so much for us to learn from such a document. Perhaps he could sell copies on his website?
1
Over the years, I consistently agree with you ... but you have no answers to how we can ensure that we "don't elect men with character flaws" into positions of policy responsibility. I have an answer; elect more women. Interesting that your editorial instinctively determined that it is men who have to hold Trump's lies to the fire and it is incumbent on properly vetted and elected men to "save" us from this lying age of Trump. Not sure if your ommission of women as being a part of the fix (and not just the victim) in this discussion was by accident, or is in fact, part of the problem.
1
I'd love to agree with the article's postulation seeing that it's reasonable and all that. But, the morality and even the consequential negatives associated with not admitting error aren't seen as negatives by the perpetrators. In terms of the consequences, just keep on lying.
Not admitting error and never apologizing are seen as virtues. And this is not pre-Trump Republicanism. It's part of the overall culture. Just like a defendant pleading guilty to a crime, admitting error becomes prima facie evidence of undeniable guilt. No other or any proof is required and in a competitive environment, that is self-inflicted damage without the opponents having to fire a shot.
The old let he without sin cast the first stone is hogwash. "Sinners" will have no quarrel with letting loose a barrage.
This was taught to me in school. Not as something to aspire to but as a reality in the worlds of business, politics and just plain human interaction.
9
The members of the Ancien Regime of pre-1789 France were criticized for learning nothing and forgetting nothing. That procedure did not end well for them. Can John Taylor learn in time?
how do economists who are consistently wrong still have jobs or teach?
3
I’m having a hard time understanding. If a low interest rate creates easy money and that’s a bad thing… what do we call big tax breaks for the wealthy? I’d call that easy money… except the wealthy get huge piles of it, while the middle class get enough to pay the electricity bill on time.
It seems that by raising interest and lowering taxes, it’s just a way to move easy money from the people who need it to the people who don’t.
3
Of course Janet Yellen will not be reappointed. Not because of any dispute about economic theories, but simply because Mr. Trump fears and hates anyone who might have "blood coming out of her whatever". She, like all women, is fit only to be a sacred object of veneration.
3
Paul Bear Bryant, I believe, is credited with saying that morality and success share a common strategy - "pass credit; take blame". I can't imagine anyone more diametrically opposed to this wisdom that the Donald (and, sadly, increasingly the entire GOP and especially it's alt-right fanatics). If we should say "radical" Islamists why not also say "radical" evangelicals - shifted gears a bit as in "which brings me to the subject of the FR"
2
And from this failure to ever admit mistakes, we know how right the folks that say the government should be run more like a business are--especially a business like Equifax I presume. Never give up, Never surrender!
3
The only thing to learn is that time and time again economists are wrong. When we they learn, and when will we all learn, that their forecasts are worthless. To a one, they believed the Fed's actions were going to be inflationary. Amazing how they were all wrong.
It is because they all think alike according to conservative principals of thought. The entire industry lacks the ability to evaluate itself retrospectively and inquire what went wrong.
This is not a Trumpian issue, but rather an academic problem that affects all economists.
The Republicans who rely upon wealth donors to maintain political power as a minority party, know that if inflation exceeds some rate, the wealth that people hold as assets will diminish in actual value and so the are very concerned about inflation. The Democrats who rely upon union support are concerned that higher interest rates could dampen economic activity and hold down wages and job growth, so they are less worried about inflation. Now the economy has not grown as strongly as in previous times because the great recession involved massive loss of wealth in collapsing markets that had become bubbles while excessive lending left huge numbers in debt for a long time. This kind of recession has taken about seven years for recovery in history. The Republicans from the start asserted that the recovery was atypically slow and long because of Democratic polices, which only the truly ignorant amongst them really believed -- it was bunk and they knew it. The lack of strong growth meant no inflation. The Republicans are a Party that is devoted to preserving the wealth of the wealthy and growth is not a priority, so they continued to promote policies which control inflation but neglect growth because of their priorities.
2
The people and yes generals refused to back down when wrong and tens of thousands of young Americans paid the price. Vietnam still haunts me and it should haunt General Kelly.
3
The important point is that many people want these strong leaders. They left more children than others in prehistory, so we descend from them. In fact the infallibility, failure to admit errors is a strength. If a man get away with it, this is a test of how strong he is.
In announcing his decision not to seek re-election, Sen. Jeff Flake said it pretty well this afternoon. Gen. Kelly and others should heed his advice.
"It is time for our complicity and our accommodation of the unacceptable to end."
10
The infallible Mr. Krugman
Mr. Krugman has conceded some errors but has yet to concede that he was wrong in his most important subject : the impact of globalization and outsourcing on the American worker. Negligible, he stated, just as likely to increase wages as to decrease them.
As Autor et al have shown, he was wrong. Google "China Syndrome, Autor"
Yet Paul Krugman never once admitted his error. The furthest he came was in 2007 where he stated in "Trade and Wages Reconsidered "that "the standard model" might be right after all.
The standard model is that competition with low wage countries hurts US workers exposed to it. Krugman had built a career attacking it.
But then he immediately retreated claiming the the content distribution was not know "fine grained" enough to be sure.
And to top it all, his advocacy for outsourcing was coupled with an elitist disdain for Amrerican wokers laid off as the result.
He found it morally outrages that they wrote him complaining letters.
Googe "In Praise of Cheap Labor" and read it for yourself.
4
Kelly was proven wrong about the circumstances and content of Wilson's speech at the FBI building. He miscontrued the other end of the line during Trump's attempt at condolence, claiming that the congresswoman had been "listening in" on the call and he disapproved of it. (The call was on speaker in Florida and there were three listeners, including Wilson, a long-time family friend.)
I strongly doubt he was deliberately lying or even intentionally misleading. It's possible, but his reputation as a man of some principle belies that. It seems more likely that he was fed misleading information by those whose grasp of "principle" is less secure than his.
8
Um, I believe he was present at the event where Ms. Wilson spoke. Of course he could have (conveniently) misremembered. The point here I think is that once proven wrong by the videotape, there was no admission that he was wrong forthcoming.
4
Following the "Taylor Rule" would have had the Federal Reserve raising the overnight interest rate from 1% in late 2013 to 4% at the end of 2016. Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and the Fed Funds rate stands at about 1.25%. Had interest rates followed Taylor's recommended path the stock and housing markets would have taken a big hit and we could be in a recession today. Global markets would be along for the ride.
22
Paul, don't you mean "men OR WOMEN with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy authority"? Now really, I expect better of you!
5
Trickle-down economics! A rising tide lifts all boats! Voodoo economics!
11
A draft dogger got a 4 star general to lie for him, on TV in front of a national audience.
Pretty impressive if you ask me.
27
This must be far from the only dent in Kelly's character; someone with even mediocre judgment would not associate themselves with Trump in the first place (if he actually thought he could make a difference, I'd say he's a bit delusional). To lie for Trump under these circumstances suggests something really awful in Kelly's character. I take it as a warning. What else will he lie about?
1
"War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength" George Orwell, 1984.
Enough said.
24
The people working for Donald Trump will never be able to get the stench out of their reputations.
27
"The people working for Donald Trump will never be able to get the stench out of their reputations."
Nor, I'm sure, will they care.
Why the emphasis on men? Betsy Devos has her share of willful, stubborn ignorance too, Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kellyanne Conway are as skilled in the art of spinning mistakes as virtue as anybody, and Ivanka is her father's "mini me." Let's not pretend that women can't have character flaws, too.
26
Anyone but Yellen. It's past time to smell toast and real butter at the Fed in the morning.
2
The near-fanatical adherence to the "inflation is just around the corner" thesis strongly suggests that John Taylor is no economist ... and certainly not a scientist of any kind. Absolute indifference to fact (even hostility to fact, a hallmark of the Trumpists) is an indicator of religious idolatry.
18
One might thinks that Trump's boys sit around the White House watching old movies and believe they are real life. In a 1948 movie, She Wore A Yellow Ribbon, John Wayne (my apology to Mr. Wayne) said, "Never apologize, mister, it's a sign of weakness." Although a empty and meaning less apology is worth about as much as a bucket to spit, quoting (although out of context) John Nance Garner.
3
No need to apologize to Mr. Wayne. I now live in an area of southern California where the nearest airport is named for him. But we know now that he was a devout racist. Keep in mind, this airport is near Nixon territory of San Clemente. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree, even a rotten one.
Lies are but one of the results of the unlimited and unrestricted pursuit of greed.
7
Trump and his minions are unique.
More often incorrect than a random chance.
Incapable of admitting being wrong.
Likely don’t know their wrong.
Certainly don’t care their wrong.
And willing to lie and insist they were right.
Ugh...were in trouble!
6
On a practical level, I guess what the concept of "Trumpal Infallibility" means for those in his Cabinet is that in addition to verbally pledging absolute fealty to their Fake Prez, these humiliated folks will be further required to genuflect, gently take his hand in theirs, and then, ever so gently, kiss the royal ring. (One can assume, based on public conduct, that a number of them have already performed this sacred ritual.)
6
Of course Kelly had to carry Humpty Trumpty’s water. Humpty Trumpty had declared long ago that he knew more than the generals. So his word is THE word, and quite, quite dynamic.
“When I use a word," Humpty Trumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean- neither more nor less."
How, indeed, could Humpty Trumpty ever be wrong?
11
obvious and dangerous extensions of the principle: climate change denial; evangelicals who refuse to accept evolution or, worse, argue that natural disasters (or 911, roy moore) are god’s response to “liberal” social policies.
5
The Trump notion of infallibility is like the reliability of the broken clock. It is always right twice a day.
9
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility." Too late!
6
Sounds like Taylor could learn a few things about cognitive fallacies from his colleagues Kahneman and Thaler, though I'm sure he doesn't regard them as real colleagues.
Well said. Erring is human, and must be accepted...provided we show, unequivocally, the necessary humility and introspection to admit we were in error, and learn from it. Confirmation bias seems in ample supply, as we show reluctance in changing our mind even in front of the evidence. What's wrong with us, not wanting to recognize our mistakes, and move on, and try to do the right thing? It is akin to the stupid answer we got in the not too distant past, when students were asked if cheating was O.K., or morally corrupt; the answer: it's O.K. to cheat, as long as you don't get caught. Have we become this Machiavellic, the noble end justifying the means however dirty and unconscionable? This brings us back to economists, supposedly well educated experts supposed to illuminate our souls with wisdom; if the contrary occurs, the higher the 'expert' goes with his false arguments, the more painful the fall. Or at least, that ought to occur in strict justice. But not with a despicable narcissist in chief, whose only virtue is in naming the very enemy of the institution he is called to serve. We are living in trying times. Some of it of our own making, by electing an unscrupulous thug (ruffian!) to the presidency. Trump (and his entourage) must go, and the sooner the better.
4
Let us not forget...the majority of Republicans support Trump even though most of them really do not like him. The 2018 election will REALLY tell the tale as to where this country will be heading...kinda scary if you think about it........
I am 5 years from full retirement age, having worked and saved for a lifetime, paid off our mortgage, religiously contributed to my 401(k) and IRAs, keeping our personal indebtedness to a minimum. And 2008 didn't frighten me nearly as much as the current situation with these economic quacks and crackpots slavering to take the helm. I am terrified that with a few ignorant, impulsive decisions, these kooks will destroy all our nest eggs. It's easy to say, "vote them out" the next time around. But I'm afraid I no longer have confidence we can make it that far before some economic catastrophe befalls us thanks to these mutton heads.
19
With the partisan divide...the chances of the republicans being voted out are very small at all levels. Even though the only people that should be happy with Trump now would be his family...and not even all of them...most that voted for him will vote republican again. And probably for Trump again as well assuming he runs.
Point well taken. Other Republican predictions that were untrue included Gingrich claiming the price of gasoline would exceed $10.00 a gallon under Obama - never happened. In 2012, Romney predicted unemployment would remain high under Obama - never happened. In 2012, Trump predicted a stock market crash under Obama - never happened.
So we have a bunch of Henny Penny's that believe the "sky is falling." Guess we need to figure out who in Trump world is Cocky Locky, Ducky Lucky, Goosey Loosey, Turkey Lurkey and Foxy Loxy.
4
I actually do not blame trump. He is a sociopath and cannot help it. But his enablers and the ridiculous percentage of people who continue to support him as he murders the country on Pennsylvania Avenue in broad daylight? Beneath contempt. The conservatives who raised me and who I grew up with were decent people with whom I often disagreed , but over the same set of facts. All dead now, or, if trumpistas, dead to me.
10
"I actually do not blame trump. He is a sociopath and cannot help it."
And a six-year-old sociopath at that.
I empathize with your dilemma...how to love my six sibling trumpistas? I think a vote for trump identifies you as supporting a racist and a racist by association. I don’t have dinner with racists, especially ones who are locked in an unshakable faith of their worldview.
Let's do a thought experiment - what if Hillary had never apologized for using a private server for her emails, and instead went with the formulation of 'it was legal, other secretaries of state did it, my emails were not classified at the time, no harm resulted, this is fake news'?
She would be president.
The surest way to be punished is to admit that you did something wrong. If you don't admit it, the way our system works is that one side blames you and the other side says you did nothing wrong, this is a witch hunt/ fake news. The single biggest culprit in public figures not admitting that they are wrong is the media. Unfortunately, this is not an issue that will get fixed given the existence of media catering to the extremes and the fact that many of us get our news from our respective poles.
4
I don't know about you but I find responsible media do admit their mistakes. It really depends on who you read/watch/listen to and how responsible they are. It doesn't take a genius to dope out whether a news source is biased. It also doesn't take a towering intellect to figure out what is fake news, especially with the help of the Internet. If it is "too good to be true", it probably isn't.
It is reassuring to see that Dr. Krugman has retained a sense of humor.
At first I thought the headline said "Trumpal INFANTibility." And I knew exactly what Mr. Krugman meant.
Evidently I'm overdue at the ophthalmologist.
5
Trumpal Infallibility. Sounds like Obama Infallibility by another name. or Krugman Infallibility. Didn't Krugman tell us the stock market would crash if Trump were elected?
2
You didn't read past the first paragraph did you?
I can always tell a Trump supporter by their remedial lethargy.
If you had read Paul's column, you would have seen that he admitted to making the statement and graciously reminded us that he had retracted same and apologized, very soon after this dreadful election. Next.
Yes but he admitted his error which is the whole point if the article. Perhaps read the article more throughly?
I believe Dr Krugmans arguments make it inevitable that this guy will be named Fed Chairman.
1
Kelly is just another Trump employee who is compromised by his association with Trump.
3
If Mr. Kelly continues his Collaboration with Trump, he will become VERY familiar with an empty Vessel. An old, cracked, tawdry, Orange vessel. As usual, Trumps Rule of Association applies: Anyone connected with him is contaminated and soiled. It's just a matter of time. Seriously.
1
As for Trump we should remember in the words of Tom Petty ..."Even the losers get lucky sometimes..."
What worries me is that I can't see trump putting (leaving) a woman in a position of real power, no matter what her track record may be.
With so many bad things happening so quickly it is hard to keep up. While the press is focused on the latest Trump Faux pas, the Congress is taking up tax breaks for the wealthy (87% of the 'tax break' proposed) with lying Ryan as their mouthpiece, and a rehash of destroying health insurance for millions of Americans. We all know Trump and his minions (including General Kelly) are narrow minded, ignorant racists; that's what their like minded supporters voted for. Please keep your eye on the ball: the current legislation in Congress.
What concerns me with 'general' Kelly is his willingness to accept administration lies as truth. I become concerned about his research prior to 'decisions' he made in the past, involving risking other's lives.
1
I get it, and applaud your intellectual honesty.
If h aka inflation breaks loose later today, then never mind.
"Economics" is not merely science.
Thank you for not swallowing fundamentalist orthodoxy, plus acknowledging
when your prognostication was bunk
Three plus years of djt h to go, and may our worst fears not become reality.
1
As much as I agree with Prof. Krugman, he is too smart an economist to waste his time with more back-and-forth, he-said-she-said debates between Trump and his surrogates on one hand and various decent people on the other. This White House's gross disregard for facts does not need his skills in economic analysis. I'd appreciate it more if focused his analytical skills on the proposed budget, tax cuts, trade deals, and health care all of which are complex and which have economic implications.
It has become a pattern in this administration: float a moderate policy choice among other possibilities. This is designed to deflect fears, dissuade pragmatic assessment and reassure those willing to be reassured.
In the case of Chairman of the Fed the short list includes Ms. Yellin. Tradition dictates that Ms. Yellin ought to be continued in office. Including her on the "short list" is a distraction: SHE WILL NOT BE REAPPOINTED. Believing otherwise is to fall for the deception.
By now we should all get the drill. When a policy is about to be yanked into territory never before seen in our Democracy that future is hidden in plain sight by the inclusion of one or more potentially moderate possible paths forward. But those moderate paths are NEVER taken by bone spur bozo or his administration.
We will do much better by ourselves and our democracy by refusing to take the moderate bait. There is simply no history of the moderate course surviving actual policy decisions. Woe unto us if we buy into the nonsense that moderate policy is actually being contemplated.
In this case we should deluge our congresspersons with perplexity as to why ANY course other than reappointing Ms. Yellin is being considered. Precedent demands her reappointment. Track record demands her reappointment. The fact that the ACTUAL list is made up of rigid ideologues who'll likely wreck the economy is less salient, to my mind, then demanding that precedent and moderation occasionally lead the way.
1
Trump is a tourist in life and despite his having run for President, he really prefers to have others take care of organizing and operating the world in which he is enjoying his leisure, than to have the responsibility of running the country well and passing along one in as good or better shape than he found it. He avoids the responsibilities by bullying all who question what he is doing that seems unproductive or counter-productive, and his protected by a legion of people who have no shame about repeating utter nonsense to justify his lack of seriousness about fulfilling his responsibilities.
1
For General Kelly/the Trump administration and their dispute with Congresswoman Wilson, in Trump's view so long as he is arguing with a Black woman, he is winning and truth be darned. Considering that is how Trump got elected president, in fact it has been to a great extent the GOP political playbook since 1980, it is hard to argue.
In regard to the who leads the federal reserve, for over 20 years the Fed was led by the biggest political hack in all Washington, Allan Greenspan. Greenspan took a very tight monetary position in the face of surplus when Clinton was president and then a lose position in the face of deficits when Bush Jr. was president. The GOP is looking for another Greenspan.
As a side light, in 1976 I was studying economics at Wisconsin. I was visiting a friend at Chicago and as her guest attended a lecture by Milton Friedman. Friedman in the lecture argued that we should get rid of the Federal reserve and just increase money supply at a certain rate every year. His reasons were that the Fed board were a bunch of political bunglers who did more harm than good.
It is ironic that it took on paper one of Friedman's biggest admirers to prove him right. Which brings us again to Trump's choice, it will be a political hack like Greenspan who will have different rules for which party is in office. As for harm, it was Greenspan determination for Bush to win the 2004 election that caused the great recession. But for the housing bubble we had President John Kerry.
Ironically, those who never admit they were/are wrong HAVE, in fact, learned from their mistakes: i.e., they have learned that they can keep supporting bad policies rooted in pig-headed ideology, and still be rewarded for doing so. What's the old saying? It's very hard to admit you're wrong when it's in your interest not to? In any case, the few who benefit from such policies are very willing to say those policies are sound, and to keep those places in place; never mind what it does to the rest of us.
1
Well, Paul, I do believe that actions do end in consequences. I can't think of a better outcome than Taylor as head of the Fed. Remember the "soft landing." It has gone pretty well. I think Taylor would return us to hyper inflation. I think this would be great, and the sooner the better. Why? Things are too expensive for the wealthy. This would enable them to eat up more of our economy at a song, while their cash rises in value. Maybe Trump's supporters will want to start a new Trump University to figure out how they can all share in the windfall.
1
The problem with the conservatives and their base is that they all want to believe in policies that would, if implemented, would create the conditions that they keep predicting. If one starts out with preconceived notions and the outcomes don't match, then the fault in their mind's lies in poor execution of the policies. In other words, how are they supposed to make money off of counter political and economic policies that don't conform to these preconceived predictions? It's the same old story of drowning the Federal Government in the proverbial bathtub. Anything that prevents this becomes "fake news". By keeping their base tied into the Alt-Right media they keep the level of rage high amongst conservatives of all stripes. Just given enough time and they believe that their doomsday prophecies will vindicate them. It's the broken clock analogy that eventually it will be the correct time, at least once on the 24hr countdown, i.e., military and European time. This certainly happened with trump's electoral college appointment.
2
Of course the Fed should have taken extraordinary measures in the midst of a crisis to stabilize capital asset prices in free-fall, spreading economic destruction from weak institutions to strong ones if not contained.
Republicans would have been happy to leave President Obama with a depression and sit on their hands in Congress while millions of Americans suffered.
An independent Fed prevented that, so to them it is unforgivable.
Also, fundamental changes from the Basel III banking liquidity and solvency regime limited the growth of bank lending, which you apparently considered in your inflation calculations and some apparently did not.
While Trump loves drama regarding the Fed, there is none. Powell will be the next Fed Chair because he is for financial deregulation and easy money. The other supposed contenders are for one or the other, not both.
I would say that while negative real interest rates made sense during the Crisis, they have been overextended, causing a vast number of global asset classes to be overvalued based on price to cash flow growth multiples.
1
This attitude of infallibility under Trump has expanded from our posture towards adversaries/enemies to our relationships with our allies. There is a difference, lost on Trump, between being a leader and being a "boss." On the world stage, Trump has been attempting to read our allies some kind of riot act as if he believes them to be his subordinates. However, not even the office of the presidency has been able to hide the fact that in ANY meeting of world leaders, Trump is literally the single least qualified, least experienced person in the room. By "literally," I mean "literally."
Trump's experience in government began on January 20, 2017. No other world leader (that I can think of) has less experience. Even Macron has been in government longer than Trump, although not as president. On top of this, Trump has not demonstrated that he is willing to "learn on the job." Skipping intelligence briefings, golfing on the weekends, nonsensical Twitter storms, involving himself in one petty controversy after another... he's not exactly hitting the books to catch up to his peers. As a result our president is intellectually and experientially junior to every world leader on the planet. No one (domestically or abroad) has any reason to respect Trump HIMSELF, only his title. The power of his office and the backing of the U.S. military affords him certain privileges on the world stage, but that just makes him the foreign affairs equivalent of a trust fund baby.
3
I may be wrong, but I think General Kelly subscribes to the time honoured and now antiquated belief in 'my president, right or wrong'. I think his belief system requires him to believe whatever the president tells him, because he is the president. However, 'my president, right or wrong', not only just doesn't work in today's politics but it can be downright dangerous.
2
I believe that Kelly, like many men who advanced to the highest levels in the military, got to his position by being an astute “yes-man,” a cheerleader for the military leaders along the way who might advance his career. The military’s hierarchical structure is uniquely suited to encourage this sort of ladder climbing. It does not reward people who on the way up bucked the system, questioned authority, or placed one’s ethics and principles over loyalty to one’s commander. Kelly used these same talents to ingratiate himself to the PINO. His inability to admit that he lied and apologize is not surprising to me in the least.
2
I can't find a original thought in this piece; as Krugman himself states, clinging to discredited policies, especially in finance, is not new to the Republican Party. This is disappointing; I was hoping for something new, maybe even a suggestion for solutions.
And I do find it ironic that Krugman, who supported Hillary's presidential bid, was supporting a strong friend of Wall Street. (It wasn't gender bias that got this woman turned against Hillary; it was her palms greased by Wall Street and other oligarchs among other political decisions). And let's not forget Obama, whose high soaring rhetoric I still can't reconcile with his placement of Wall Street CEO's in his administration.
I do wish we had an opposition party to our two corporate political parties.
2
Thank you Dr Krugman! I asked for it and you did a very good first piece. This is so important. I hope you will give us more data to help serious people better understand why Mr. Taylor is the wrong choice for Fed Chair. The general press seem to ignore this issue and Trump will make his announcement soon. The general press will probably ignore researching why this is a bad choice and it will drop from public sight. Nobody will think about it until or economy is back on the rocks and then the public will realize Taylor is another Scott Pruitt, Betsy DeVos, Tom Price, Rick Perry, Neil Gorsuch , Ryan Zinke, Jeff Sessions, Wilbur Ross, Steve Mnuchin, ...
but with a longer tenure.
3
You have to understand that conservatism has become a cult. It cannot brook any dissension and compliance is mandatory. Anyone who shows any independence is excoriated until he returns chastened or is banished. That means you must deny any evidence that contradicts the ideology. Tax cuts pay for themselves v. Kansas' economic collapse. Ignore Kansas. Climate change is false v. months of record-setting temperatures, shrinking ice caps, etc. Ignore or explain away the heat. Guns don't kill people v. entire cemeteries-worth of gunshot victims and studies that show the opposite. Ignore or explain away the victims and studies. And on and on.
The problem is that contemporary Republican ideology requires that liberals must be wrong about everything all the time. The corollary to that is that conservatives are always right about everything all the time. For a conservative to acknowledge a mistake would mean that liberals might be right about something, and if they're right about this, what else might they be right about? That's a slippery slope that could lead to critical thinking, backtracking, backsliding. compromise, and all sorts of ills. For the poor conservatives, It's just not worth the risk. Better to destroy the country and to court personal ruin than admit fault.
3
President Eisenhower, in his farewell address, admonished the American public 'be ware of the military industrial complex'. Gen Kelly is a part of that apparatus. Only the least intellectually curious in America fail to heed the sage advice of President Eisenhower, retired 5 star general.
3
How about calling for the end of 60 vote majority rule in the senate?
Is it still your thing?
It is time to be bold and once and for all let's move that archaic rule that's not in the constitution.
Every Republican president in my lifetime has presided over the beginning of one or two recessions. Why should Trump be any different?
2
Thank you, Mr. Krugman, for the warning. Obviously, that's whom trump will appoint. Any suggestions for the impending future fiasco?
1
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility." Well, that eliminates modern Republican politicians.
As far as I'm concerned there is no such thing as easy money outside of winning the lottery.
Off topic, Did anyone hear Leon Panetta say Democrats and Republicans were equally responsible for gridlock in Congress? Whoever did that interview was remiss in not asking for examples. Maybe Paul could address that in a blog.
2
And men with this character flaw should not be placed in the cabinet or as chief or staff or in the presidency. But they were and are!
As a history teacher, I keep thinking about how this will be written about and analyzed in 100 years . . . and fear it will be the final build to our great nation's rapid decline.
It wouldn't terrorize me so much if I didn't have children.
2
Persons of integrity embrace their mistakes and study them to inform future thinking.
Many predicted the change in NYPD "stop and frisk" policies would lead to surging crime. Nonetheless, justice demanded a new approach so "stop and frisk" as a strategy was deemphasized and instances of its use plummeted. Lo and behold, crime rates continued to trend down in the months and years since. The New York Daily News, which had fought this change and predicted all kinds of problems, printed a mea culpa editorial, admitting they were dead wrong and expressing happiness that the result was in fact excellent. This newspaper was happy to be wrong. People of integrity and character are brave enough to predict what they think will happen, honest enough to fairly interpret outcomes, and happy to be wrong if the actual outcome is better for the common good.
Politicians and economists seem to be the opposite. They want to be right, at all costs. If they are not right, they re-invent and re-interpret both what they originally said and the actual outcome. To them, being right is more important than the common good. A better outcome they did not predict makes them double down and perseverate. Trickle-down economics and John Kelly's smear of Congresswoman Wilson come to mind. The former has never worked yet the GOP continues to insist it will, and the latter merely requires a simple apology that may never come.
And then there is Trump who would sell us all up the river just to save face.
2
Republicans have been afflicted by this phenomena of repeating the same action over & over again, expecting different results. They're either extremely obtuse or it has all been done purposefully. I believe the latter. They've never been the political party inclusive of the common person. They've always been beholden to the rich & powerful & chose to do their bidding.
Lying & blameshifting are characteristics of a narcissist. It's no wonder the republican party attracted Trump, who exhibits many narcissistic personality traits. That Trump unashamedly does these things & surrounds himself with others who either do the same thing or see nothing wrong with the practice.
It calls into question the character of the others in this administration who tell lies, misstate facts and then refuse to correct or apologize for them. Whatever Gen. Kelly was praised for, what ever great deeds he has done, are all irrelevant when he behaves in a manner that goes against the expectations of society and the military he professes to love. He needs to go. He also demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of the role of the free press & a penchant for believing that Generals/military are superior to civilians & should be deferred to. These are dangerous beliefs. I am concerned that the other Generals in this administration may be similarly inclined. I guess there is a reason that military people have not traditionally been a significant part of white house staff.
2
Kelly's claim that the Congresswoman claimed credit for securing the funding was false; his claim that she used the opportunity to take credit for herself. In the New York Times' own words:
"Ms. Wilson never took credit for getting the money for the building, only for helping pass legislation naming the building after two fallen federal agents."
Kelly's objection, as I heard it, was not specific to the exact details, but rather that at the dedication of a building commemorating two fallen FBI agents, a politician used the opportunity to take credit for herself.
Kelly should apologize for getting that wrong.
Economics should be a field where reality affects your actions. You would think. Then there's the GOP's favorite "expert," Grover Norquist, who at 13 decided taxes are bad and should never be raised, and should be cut.
Gee, seems like that teenage dream is still running the GOP.
1
John Kelly's speech, a moving and informative description of how fallen soldiers are tended to and their families contacted, ends with a mention of the congresswoman at an earlier FBI building dedication. The gist of Kelly's mention is that each speaker on that solemn day spoke of duty and sacrifice until the congresswoman stepped to the podium and made a brief 'glossing' of her role in the building itself and stepped down. Kelly muffs the details of her self-aggrandizement but the portrait is accurate. btw, Paul, amazed you still allow yourself to type "infallibility": the Dow's over 23,000.
I still like to believe because of his own loss General Kelly minspoke.
So,please sir, do no waste any time, apologize to the congress woman.
Trump is like a bad disease, who ever comes in contact with him are reduced to something unrecognizable.
2
Lets stop beating around the bush and just say that Our Fake So Called President and his entire cabinet are all really monstrously bad people. Sad.
3
It has always seemed intuitive to me that raising an interest rate (cost of money over time) is in and of itself inflationary. I never understood the rational behind the 2010 letter and observation would indicate that in an economy built on borrowed money, making borrowing more expensive fuels inflation; lowering borrowing interest rates does not not. A review of the hyperinflation of the 1970's would seem to support this contradiction to conventional economic wisdom.
It wasn't just economists calling for a hike in interest rates. The similarly and preternaturally self-proclaimed Infallible Pundit in all areas, Ralph Nader, proclaimed low interest rates an assault on people living on fixed incomes.
Never mind that fairly stable prices were a boon to them. Or that the rise in their modest stock portfolios helped. Would Janet Yellen please just listen to her husband? asked Ralph.
"Infallibility" sure is a nice way to put it. Grotesque and arrogance ignorance is the less-nice way.
1
- and about: ''See? I made a joke!'' - Trump always makes these jokes -(or is he serious?) that it is because of him that the economy is going so well - which reminds me one of his speeches - that ''we are in a bubble and should be very careful''.
And to make a joke myself:
The FED HAS to keep interest rates as low as possible - because if the Taylor Dude would raise them - even more dough of the international money slosh could float into the homeland - as -(if y'all haven't noticed it yet?) - there is no other place in the world anymore - where you can make more money than in the US Casino.
And that fact - that nobody -(with a lot of dough) in the world - really knows any other place to stuff the dough - leads to the strangest and sometimes weirdest contradictions and consequences.
Being one of them that the Poor and American Renters could suffer under Taylor even more if another s...load of dough would arrive in order to up-speculate the prices for US Real Estate and Stocks even more?
1
Forgive my naivety, but if the Fed "printed money" where did it go? If it had been fairly evenly distributed then we would have seen inflation, right? We do see increases in prices in things that rich people buy - stocks (Dow hitting record highs) and investments as well as real estate (Dr Krugman recently wrote a column about the cost of living in NYC and San Francisco).
To me this is a key question for whoever chairs the Fed, as well as legislators considering tax reform - where did the money actually go and how will that impact your policy?
4
It never went anywhere. Once investors saw that the banking system wasn't going to fail they started to buy equities again. But borrowing never increased significantly.
7
Interest rate manipulations by the Fed since the Volcker interest rate spike has motivated banks to securitise their loans for origination fees from Wall Street and hold these securities as assets in lieu of the loans themselves. This allows for hedging interest rate risk created by monetary policy fluctuations.
“It's not what you don't know that kills you, it's what you know for sure that just ain't true.” - Mark Twain
38
I get the impression a lot of wealthy people want an increase in interest rates because it will affect their income.
Is John Taylor being funded by the wealthy?
17
Preferred dividends and capital gains are taxed at lower rates than interest. Zero percent interest rate policy has further skewed the historical ratio of debt to equity investing in favor of equities.
8
Understanding one has erred is the hallmark of intelligence. Intellectual growth can not prosper without errors. Acknowledging publicly one has erred is the standard of integrity. We are honored for our insights but mentored by our errors. Apologizing for one's error and its consequences is the gold star of a person who values intelligence, integrity and compassion. "I am sorry" are the three most important words in public discourse.
44
Humans learn by trial and error. Those who acknowledge no errors don't learn anything from them.
The Whole Trumpelstiltskin administration is wrong and never admits anything.
28
That's their strategy. Unfortunately it is very successful. This strategy has played in many other authoritarian societies. We are entering a long dark tunnel and no way out except through. No one knows how bad it will be but judging by other countries that went down this road, many will die and much will be lost.
More like The Delusion of Trumpal Infallibility. Or is The Illusion of Trumpal Infallibillity? And yes, you can fool Trump supporters all of the time.
The worst values, worst judgment, and the most despicable GOP political behavior I have witnessed in my long life. Hocus-pocus politics. Right is wrong and wrong is right; bad is good, and good is bad; and truth is out, lies are in.
Voila! the rich get richer, the middle class and poor get poorer, and the country, the planet, and truth are trashed 24/7/365 in an all-Republican government.
Unethical, lawless, inhumane, irresponsible, unaccountable, and built on misinformation, misrepresentation, distortion, withholding information, ad hominem attacks, lies, and intentional campaigns of disinformation.
Why? Pull back the curtain and see the "killer billionaires'" dirty fingerprints everywhere. Want to impeach Trump and get VP Pence as the "Sycophant-in-Chief"? See how Trump and Pence play bad cop, good cop in: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/23/the-danger-of-president-pence
“If something is there, you can only see it with your eyes open, but if it isn't there, you can see it just as well with your eyes closed. That's why imaginary things are often easier to see than real ones.”
Norton Juster, The Phantom Tollbooth
37
Hate to nit-pick, but shouldn't it be 24/7/52? :-)
Unless you mean 365/52 = 7.02 years left in DJT's 2-terms. That's not quite accurate either, and it's too depressing to contemplate.
Thanks Peter! I attribute my fuzzy math skills to the Republicans--in addition to all the other problems I have. Blaming other is another neat little trick I learned from the Republicans.
too late...
7
Men with that character tend to mingle with men of the same character. It is called the good ol' boy's club. In their eyes just because their predictions did not come to fruition does not mean they were wrong. It means that someone else did something wrong and somewhere down the line our grandchildren's grandchildren will pay the price.
These men are full of themselves and one thing is for sure, they take care of each other. They take care of each other in the interest of money and power. There is a lot of wealth to be managed and it is their responsibility to push it in the right direction. A direction that best suits the good ol' boys club. Everyone else be damned.
25
If one does cheat on one's own spouse, one tends to be more trusting of those who do the same.
GOP economic philosophy: If at first your predictions don't succeed, try, try again ... at screwing things up to make your predictions come true.
18
"If our policies haven't worked, you haven't taken enough of them."
Prof. Krugman, maybe the problem you describe is a symptom of your profession? If a physicist at some well known university kept predicting things that turned out to be false.. an asteroid would hit the earth on some particular day...didn't happen, a certain airplane design will result in lots of crashes..no siree, the salt content of the ocean will reduce dramatically in a given number of years ...nyet, he would be declared a nutcase and stripped of his academic position.
Not so in economics. Economists, even less so than weatherman, are rarely ever held to account by their colleagues or academic institutions. When was the last time some economist was kicked out of a professional association of economists for consistently getting her facts/predictions wrong?
And worse yet, we now have "liberal" economists and "conservative" economists! That should be enough to drum all of you out of academia. Can you imagine such a thing as "liberal" or "conservative" chemist or mathematician. The moment these designations became common, that's when all economists lost their credibility in my opinion.
Now, I am not suggesting that all economists are fake, but until you guys put in place systems for assessing the credibility of your members over time and taking some sort of professional action against the charlatans, the problem you describe of a lack of self correction on the parts of those who consistently get their predictions wrong, will go uncorrected.
30
The difference between physical sciences and economics is that the former deal with immutable physical laws and are able to conduct small scale experiments that, if successful, accurately reflect what goes on in the macro physical world; while the latter deals with a much larger number of variables and involves the ideological component in its conclusions. In other words, economics is not an exact science and doesn't conform to the same kind of peer review operating in physical sciences. Unfortunately, the results of wrong conclusions or predictions by economists can affect an entire nation for generations.
16
Actually wealthy interests have taken over the academic freedom of our university system, using strings attached grant money.Economics program professors and students are punished for research or publications that challenge supply side orthodoxy.
7
I think your analysis only applies to the past. Nowadays data is only believed if it supports the Republican administration's desires.
Just watch what happens when scientists say climate change is going to cause problems or that individual vaccinations are necessary for the protection of everyone.
Trump and his cronies actively have stated the exact opposite of the scientific consensus, usually with the standard Trump proviso" someone told me" or "I heard about"
Krugman: "But it’s much worse if you can never bring yourself to admit past errors and learn from them."
What you are talking about in this op-ed, Dr. K, is the difference between wisdom and folly. Winston Churchill reminded us: "All men make mistakes, but only wise men learn from their mistakes."
In this Republican-controlled administration, folly (foolish leadership) definitely prevails over wisdom (wise leadership).
36
It's important to note that the Trump base will never see the tape proving that Kelly lied about Representative Wilson. Not one person who uses Fox News as a "news" source will ever know -- and so, no need to apologize for a lie the voting base will never hear about.
Economically, the Conservative lies have been going on for decades, supporting the failed premise of Reaganomics, despite all evidence that a top-down economy works for no one but the top. Power and money are what they are after - not fair governance of the people - and power and money are what their lies get them. So why should they stop?
41
Progressive taxation is one of the very few things that moderate the feedback loop between wealth and power.
Go ahead and focus on the minutiae of the congresswoman. The larger point is the Dems' insistence on twisting every action by Trump into a partisan attack.
General Kelly may be an officer, but in no way is he a gentleman. He is known by he company he keeps as a professional lap dog.
Trump won't re-appoint Yellen for the simple reason that she was an Obama appointee. It is a slam dunk she should be re-appointed but Trump will go in a different direction and that's a shame.
25
Also, she's far to honest.
Trump has a knack for surrounding himself with weak-knee sickly sycophants. That's all he needs to keep his name-calling con game in play. Was there anything more pathetic than the recent (June, I think) gathering of his cabinet members taking turns trying to outdo the others with their sloppy kisses to the ... of the boss.
Where are the tax returns? Assets are one thing, debts are another. Why will no American bank make a loan to the Trumps? Forget about Bernanke, this is 2017!! General Kelly just spilled the beans for all to see.
If you cannot see that you are being played, you are being played. Above all, keep your eyes on the keys to the U.S. Treasury.
18
Trump's shamelessness rests on serene confidence that he has made no secret at all of who he is.
Trump appoints people guaranteed to undermine the institutions they oversee. This is apparently the Trump/Bannon strategy.
Trump views apology as a weakness, compassion as a weakness, empathy as a weakness. He has formed his over the top personality minus the most exceptional and special gifts that humans have. Does this alone make him unfit for the office? Yes.
27
That's why we have elections. People weighed both major candidates, and Trump won 30 states. See you in 2020.
1
I also think not being able to admit that you are wrong or made a mistake is a character flaw. I also think that it is a flaw in reality testing. We are all wrong sometimes and we all make mistakes. I dislike this fact as much as the next person but I console myself with the thought that by admitting my errors or lack of knowledge and then taking steps to correct them that the next time this comes up, if it does, then I will be right because I will have corrected the problem.
8
Some of the bugs flying around Trump are more afraid of him tweeting nasty things about them than they are of being wrong. Others are just in it for the money.
Then we have John Kelly. Truth, honor, and reputation no longer matter to him because he can justify his abject servitude to a monster by telling himself it’s patriotism. He won’t apologize to Rep. Wilson for his lies because Trump doesn’t want him to.
An easy way out for both Head Toad and his Head Toady.
14
Taylor (or any of the other stiffs)is appointed new fed chief. Raises rates. Greed goes crazy. So, my question is: What happens next?
5
The problem is, a great number of people in this country see a character flaw as an asset. Whether it be for entertainment sake, or they actually believe someone who doesn't know what they are doing will "shake things up."
We're gonna find out how bad it's gonna get, because this administration is full of the characters Mr. Krugman has described.
12
Getting down to basics he Bernanke/Yellen approach meant we 1) avoided a major depression 2) reached a 4.2 unemployment rate and 3) saw the market surpass 23000. How can anyone rationalize messing with this success?
19
Inflation requires some type of market “forcing.” The industrial growth that fueled the inflation levels in the 70s to 80s was due to major industries having many customers willing to pay high prices for needed infrastructure products. Coupled with the relative high cost of energy at that time, inflation was inevitable. That does not exist right now and will not exist in the foreseeable future.
Republican economic policies for the past decades were designed to limit the growth of wages for the middle class while pushing for profits. Without disposable income for so many people, the forces that drive inflation are not in place. The next generations of workers are being told to be thankful for even having a job with wages being kept low by lack of pricing power, non-compete clauses in employment (indentured servitude) and the drive for profits to fuel the stock market It is simply not possible to have inflation with so many people having less money. This will get worse as the next generation takes over and the risk of eventual deflation being the probable outcome.
Sidebar:
Unpatriotic to criticize the generals?
Trump: “I know more about ISIS than the generals do. Believe me.”
Or his criticism of McCain. Consistency is certainly not required in the Trump bubble
8
@stephen
Excellent "Poe."
The pronouncements and policy recommendations of most economists, especially on the right, points out the futility of trying to apply economic theories to human behavior. When the highly educated economists themselves refuse to acknowledge what evidence and numbers demonstrate how can we expect mere politicians to create sensible fiscal or monetary policy. Our world today looks like a terrible mash up of Lewis Carroll, George Orwell, Aldous Huxley and Stephen King novels.
5
Some economic factors are easy to predict- a health citizenry, children, well fed and well educated, the newest and best infrastructure and the new jobs that go into them, clean air, water and food, fair wages, and a government free of nepotism and kleptocracy produce a strong economy. Trump and the GOP are not even interested in the basics, let alone the less obvious though proven economic stimulus of strengthening the middle class as opposed to enriching the upper class.
8
Mr. Taylor's tight money preference seems to stem from conservatives' belief in scarcity which they claim is natural. If scarcity is natural, why do I look out my window at nature and see abundance. An abundance of trees metabolizing abundant of nutrients from the soil with the help of an abundance of sunlight. An abundance of grasses on the forest floor. An abundance of migrating birds in the air, the trees and on the ground. An abundance of insects. Abundant wildlife from mice to badger to bear. Nature is abundant even in the desert, even in reclaiming sites damaged by disasters natural and man made. I think this conservative doctrine of scarcity is an excuse for the few rich and powerful to hoard money and resources and let them trickle down to the many and un-priviledged.
5
"An abundance of trees metabolizing abundant of nutrients from the soil with the help of an abundance of sunlight. An abundance of grasses on the forest floor. An abundance of migrating birds in the air, the trees and on the ground. An abundance of insects. Abundant wildlife from mice to badger to bear."
Sorry ... those are legacies of prior presidents and, therefore, in the Trump world to be destroyed.
Paul, you expect rationally when really it is all about ideology. The GOP has nothing else to stand for except that they know the way things SHOULD work and needn't apologize if it doesn't because it should have worked.
7
Trump will select the worst candidate to head the Fed as he has done with his cabinet heads. Then we can watch the Fed lose control of the economy that will hurt everyone except Trump.
5
This is yet another nomination that has the smell of Mike Pence, who has driven the clown bus of appointments since the beginning. Pence is a frightening presence in the administration, largely unaccountable for anything while still being Trump's most significant advisor. I'd call him another empty GOP suit, but he's more of an empty frock who favors the good book over the Constitution of the United States of America.
4
Are we at the point yet where those of us who are about 60 or so should start thinking about converting our 401K's to cash and getting out of the market? I am starting to worry almost every day now that the Trump house of cards is going to come crashing down.
3
Perhaps, wanting to be seen as infallible Trump wanted to be the Pope. He mixed things up, as usual, and wound up as President but still thinks he's infallible.
2
"But it’s much worse if you can never bring yourself to admit past errors and learn from them....That kind of behavior makes it all too likely that you’ll keep making the same mistakes; but more than that, it shows something wrong with your character. And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
Oh, I get it, Paul, you were leading up to a joke with the last sentence as the punch line! Very clever. In the #45 swamp, we almost exclusively have "men with that character" in positions of policy responsibility. They believe in the philosophy I love so much: "I've been wrong before. There was that time I thought I made a mistake but I didn't."
1
Trump may hire that Taylor guy. A person consistently wrong on Fed policy will do wonders for the R's next election prospects.
3
At this pace, Trump will make Orwell's 1984 look meek in comparison. Up is down, abomination is virtue, spite makes policy. The government has Trump for Brains.
2
My fear is that Trump will kill the economy, and then to distract us from that, get us into a conflict which will actually kill us all.
2
Admit that you were wrong? That's the sign of a loser! And, as we know, Trump only abides winners. Oh, and people who are willing to abase themselves to prove their loyalty. Doesn't matter if what these people believe has little basis in fact or can't be supported by statistics and well-thought out research. Doesn't matter if what these people do ruins the country. So, with respect to Taylor's qualifications to be the new Fed Chair, the only one that really matters is his willingness to get down on one knee and pledge his fealty to wants to be King Trump.
2
I once asked a brilliant Harvard-Princeton-educated lawyer cousin of mine why he never ran for public office and he replied that politicians "cannot afford the benefits of doubt", which he felt was essential to his own freedom of thought in order to maintain justice.
3
Trumpal infallibility?
I wish the learned professor would identify the deep wounds in the American psyche that consistently lead us to elect the less qualified candidate (Bush over Gore and Kerry, Obama over Hillary, Trump over Hillary). Maybe an economist cannot so do. Can anyone?
Kalidan
1
There does seem to be so little goodwill between the left and the right at the moment that each side will only believe itself and the worst segments of the other side. The result is that conservatives will only believe that a conservative made a mistake when that conservative admits it. Which they need never do.
The free press who should make this accountability involuntary in this case consists entirely of the conservative-trusted outlets, who will not do so. Being on the same side of an argument with a liberal against a conservative would be unnecessarily damaging to their brand when something else can always be found to fill a cycle.
I don't know what the way out of the echo-chamber is for both the left and the right. Perhaps some kind of algorithm courtesy of google indicating the reliability of the source, based on a fact-checking database. That seems unlikely to be trusted by the more conspiracy-oriented members of the right, however. Sam Harris recently suggested that in addition to the 'like/dislike' options given in articles, another option be added: 'this changed my mind'. This could be a great way to start to break the echo chamber. It seems to me something which could especially give centrists a better chance of being heard, since they're more likely to change minds. This could lead to the best ideas of the right and the left cross-pollinating instead of competing, and rebuild a center composed of people with strong ideas instead of weak convictions.
7
These days, changing one's mind is regarded as a sign of weakness. Unless you're Trump, whose mind seems to change every time he walks through a door. (Seldom for the better, unfortunately.)
9
There's a fundamental difference in approach. The so-called "left" is "liberal" which is to say carefully experimental, because it generally acknowledges that mistakes are at the root of many problems, and they are very easy to make, but also easy to correct, if one takes the trouble to learn from them. The presumption of infallibility by the right freezes in every mistake it makes.
6
As an Independent, I cannot but disagree.
There's NO equivalency at all between America's left and right today. As Krugman correctly points out, there is no longer a mere difference in ideology between both political parties, for the first time in the US's history, one of its major parties has started to systematically lie and deny proven truths, and wants to base new laws on proven falsehoods. It also has Fox News as its propaganda machine, spreading one lie after the other and keeping 30% of the American people in an "alternative facts" world where all of a sudden it seems that politicians who are lying are actually the ones saying the truth, whereas all the other media, from center to left, are said to be lying just because they reject those lies.
This is an extremely dangerous situation.
Compare this to how Democrats governed under Obama: in a evidence-based way, and merely writing centrist ideas into law, which until then many conservatives had supported too.
We won't solve this problem by denying that it exists and inventing a "division" between both parties that would be created by each one hating the other.
The only way to solve it is to:
1. continue to show that facts are NOT ideologically biased.
2. continue to ask the GOP and conservative journalists to no longer destroy their party and as a consequence this country and to go back to the Grand Old Party, where ideological differences are respected and even encouraged BECAUSE they are fact-based.
2
Always thought that economist were in the same boat as meteorologists predicting the weather: they only have to be right half the time and people think they are doing a good job.
5
Economists treat the public mood as if it were the weather.
What?
I guess that means you think its OK never to admit a mistake and never correct one's self? That was the POINT of the article. Economist shimonifist - who cares what the title of the person is that has WISDOM. Of maybe you are just against wisdom or maybe just economists? I can't tell.
Trump and his administration are incapable of doing anything less than harming Americans. They see themselves as in the right, as the wronged party, and as the only ones capable of making America great again. If anyone should swallow their ambitions it ought to be the rest of us. Why? Because we weren't born white, male, rich, heterosexual, Christian: in other words we're not the right sort of American, the sort that Trump and his gang want to work with or help. Therefore we aren't entitled to want or have decent lives, to be treated with respect and dignity, to have opinions, to have access to health care when and where we need it, or to apologies.
Their real attitude towards Americans who aren't good enough is evident in how they've treated Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands as well as Texas and Florida. Not enough rich people to matter or enough white people to matter. Trump, Pence, McConnell, Ryan and the rest of the Politburo do not see us as Americans who matter. The only Americans on their radar are the exceedingly rich who can and will buy as much power as they can in order to avoid sharing America with working people. They are entitled to an apology. The rest of us should be grateful if they drop us a dime every now and then.
15
And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility. - Nor should they be elected president of the US!
51
Mark my words, the Clinton tax increase will ruin the economy.
34
If it hadn't been for computer tech being positioned in the economy where it was, we'd still be digging out of that rubble.
Why should anyone believe anything a conservative says about the economy? The right have been shills for the rich since the 80s, and have been proven wrong time and again. Republican fiscal policy is to basically blow up the deficit to pay their rich friends and campaign contributors. Then people like Sal defend them because Sal is so wrapped up in identity politics to understand that he's getting screwed too.
I interpreted Sal to be a Progressive sheep. His comment, I took to be sarcasm at Republicans, and what they said about Clinton at the time. When character didn't matter. But that was before 'is' was left undefined. Before impeachment. Before revocation of a law license.
trump's inability to admit error is part of his mental illness. That along with a host of other symptoms and behavioral indicators, make it abundantly clear he is unfit for office.
43
When you're really only concerned about how the 1% is doing it changes the way you think.
34
I think Krugman gets to the essence of what’s wrong with the Republican Party. Ideologues who can never be pried from their beliefs. Mistakes and reality are ignored. To be a Republican today does mean you do have a character flaw. It’s one of the great tragedies of our country that one of our major parties is such a scourge.
52
They have to stick to those points because that's what their wealthy "contributors" want.
They must obey or loose those fat payments.
1
I agree, but I think the other big problem is the Win at Any Cost mentality that they all seem to share. Nothing matters except if you can win. And never apologize for anything. I read somewhere that you are 400 times more likely to meet a sociopath in the corner CEO office than you are walking at random on the street. I think these days the chance that the CEO sociopath is a Republican is virtually 100%.
General Kelly denied at a press conference a couple of weeks ago that he agreed to serve in his present position in order to impose a degree of sanity on the Trump White House. Nice to know, but any minimally aware person would already have observed the continued failure to check the tweetstorms.
So, why did he accept promotion, to trash his own reputation for integrity? Kelly may have thought he could do his job honestly, remain in the background, and escape the taint of corruption and false patriotism that attaches to anyone who associates with the current president. If so, then the ambush by technology he suffered last week at the behest of his boss should have finally awakened him to the reality that no one works for the devil without growing a pair of horns and a forked tail. He attacked Congresswoman Wilson over her interpretation of Trump's call to Mrs. Johnson and her behavior at the dedication of an FBI building, only to learn that tapes of the phone call and ceremony confirmed her version of both. Oops!
General Kelly strikes me as an honorable, courageous man, but Trump, who is neither, never permits his employees to maintain their dignity and independence. The president instinctively knows that an associate with integrity will highlight, by contrast, his own lack of character. Thus, Trump generally surrounds himself with lackeys, who won't hesitate to praise him on demand. Kelly should resign.
27
"General Kelly strikes me as an honorable, courageous man"
You should look deeper into his background. You may change your opinion.
1
Oh, come on, Paul. Of course, they're going to destroy the economy. They destroy everything they touch for 99% of us. That's, in fact, their explicit goal.
They're going to depress wages MORE. Destroy obligation of employers to employee's retirement. Gut access to health care. Revise the tax code so the poorest pay the relative most. Deregulate banks & financial services industry as well as housing, health care, and utilities. And, as the coup de grace, destroy Medicare/Social Security, retirement savings programs that the vast majority of wage earners in the U.S. have paid into since the minute they entered the workforce.
Their goal, the final & ultimate redistribution of wealth from the 99% to 1%, demands a massively destructive economic crisis. They want us to suffer. They particularly want the too large, too affluent, too entitled wave of baby boomers to die sooner than later. If they can take all of the boomers' assets, depriving that generation of passing the middle class to their children/grandchildren & they can kill off the tail-end of the Boom a couple decades quicker than life expectancies have risen for the middle class, then they'll have a starving, desperate, ignorant population with no delusions of self-governance, groveling at the bottom run of Maslow's ladder.
That's what they want, 'they' being the 1%'ers and their GOP pit bulls (who will be euthanized eventually, but that's another story).
They want all our stuff. They want us to die. Here we go.
40
It is shocking that the man-baby who occupies the White House can never admit a mistake. He has one solution - LYING. And now he has recruited an assortment of willing accomplices who are willing to go along with this strategy.
The silence of the Republicans is equally shocking. Meanwhile irreparable damage is being done to every area of our government - foreign policy, relationships with allies, the environment, education, public safety, health care, our democratic institutions, the free press, Social Security, Medicare, fiscal responsibility, and on and on.
One should note that the irreparable damage is also being done to what remains of the Republican Party - a sham of cowardly men. (with a few exceptions of truth-tellers). This is draining the swamp? We are drowning in the sewer of this destructive and incompetent administration.
27
"The silence of the Republicans is equally shocking. "
It was shocking in 2008, but after over 8 years of Boehner, Ryan and McConnell it's old hat.
Nowadays it's obvious that the rebuplicans are just a bunch of servants for the rich and completely indifferent to the will of the citizens of this country.
4
Dogma is stubborn. The Republican Party at this point consistently denies science such as climate change when surrounded by proof; it denies medicine and clings to what one Supreme Court Justice admitted was junk medicine regarding a contraceptive and nevertheless stated that a religious belief by an employer triumphed over known scientific fact; and daily lies are spouted as though serious truth while well-supported investigative journalism is dismissed as fake news.
This is the GOP's cargo cult, these new sacred cows that must be worshipped because they are demonstrably wrong and only a belief system can resolve the inherent contradictions and cognitive dissonance.
Galileo was charged with heresy and died under arrest for his support of the science that the earth revolved around the sun rather than vice versa. Now we live in a Trumpocentric world where sacred truths are revealed through mysterious oracles tweeted into the ether and interpreted by acolytes from Bannon to Kelly. No truth, just ridiculous nonsense that is endlessly repeated and constantly interpreted so that lesser mortals can understand its inner truths.
The rest of us who live in the real world can only avoid the crazies and try to limit the harm they do.
24
If someone doesn't admit they made an error and apologize for the error, it doesn't change the fact they made an error. It just means they lack character and are irresponsible small people.
Not exactly traits we want in a chief of staff and POTUS.
19
On a more simple local level, here is how John Taylor operates:
California tries to build a High Speed rail system, connecting Los Angeles with Sacramento, with connection to San Jose, and maybe to San Francisco (although, looking at French, German, or Japanese well functioning fast trains, the San Jose-San Francisco connection should be done by a sub-Urban people mover who stops in every town. Like the Paris RER or the Berlin S-Bahn.
First 5 years ago Taylor tried to torpedo the Plan by claiming such things never worked because it too the transcontinental Rail road more than 10 years top become profitable. Even if true, so what?
Since this did not work )HRS was approved), Taylor put out the claim that even after 20 years the French TGV was needing enormous subsidies, something with naturally is anathema for Republicans.
But this is a lie of Trumpian dimensions: TGV basically subsidizes the rest of SNCF, the French Railroad Company. After a few start=up years, TGV became immensely profitable. As is the German ICE and the Japanese Shinkansen.
That tells you who John Taylor is: a conservative Fraud.
13
The problem with your analysis is that you are too kind. These are not mistakes, they are purposeful cons. The trickle down theory has been aptly described as the "tinkled on" result. As to positions of responsibility, the Republicans - economists, scientists (?) and politicians, took their positions with outrageous lies, playing into a suspension of reality in the Republican ranks. They will never voluntarily admit anything or give up any power, we will have to get real and throw them out.
15
We're in a lot of trouble. I'm having trouble sleeping at night. Every morning, waking to a new nightmare. Will no one save this great country of ours?
14
Gret column Mr.Krugman. Youn have nailed it. Character is all and it's absence in this catastrophic administraion gets worse day to day. This can't end well.
Is the White House pursuing a policy of never correcting, apologizing or acknowledging its factual errors as a strategy designed to see such lies become accepted urban myth/facts for their baying political base?
8
That is certainly part of it, but in my opinion it is just the nature of the people who make up the Republican party these days. I know way too many people who on principle simply never apologize and never admit any sort of mistake, no matter how small or human. It is a thing these days. Invariably, when I apologize or admit that I was wrong about something I get looked at like I am a worm. Society is changing, I think.
1
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
Oh, oops! Too late.
Stuff flows down hill and if you look at the top you see the king of all character flaws! Too late.
They're all motivated by pride and narcissism, opportunism and hubris. Will they bring the rest of us down? Can't you see the writing on the wall? Unless a lot of adults are found incCongress there's no going back now.
6
" And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
Except for the Trump administration, in which case never admitting you are wrong is a prerequisite.
7
Denying your lies or your mistakes has no consequence in politics in America today and the GOP establishment has known that for years. Trump is as Dr. Krugman says just the most recent and extreme example of this sad fact. Because these politicians and opinion makers are not kept accountable they are rapidly pulling the country back in time to an era where only corporate and personal wealth counts. Human and Christian values doesn't count any longer. What it will take before the American public will wake up and say 'enough is enough' ?
8
Denial of the failure of monetary policy administered by the Fed to adequately substitute for inept fiscal policy from Congress screams louder than ever.
1
All part of the Bannon plan to help destroy the systems that keep our government functioning. He is still dangerous and maybe even more so born they he has left the administration.
3
So Trump never admits mistakes. But of course that's because he never makes any. Just ask his subordinates.
6
The last time you failed to question a general he turned out to be a foreign agent. That was only six months ago.
13
If Trump cohorts can't admit mistakes, they also demonstrate they can't learn. Their inability to learn and improve their thinking is the most dangerous flaw in their character and is the reason the world is terrified of their compromised intellect.
4
If this behavior constitutes a character flaw, that its one that many, MANY men share. And it seems to br connected closely with men who desire power and will do anything to hold on to it.
Maybe its better characterized as a defense mechanism than a character flaw. And in this culture we now live in, anyone will pick at any three consecutive words you're caught saying as evidence that you're either wrong or a liar.
Listen to these anger rightwing radio talk jocks accusing everyone they don't like of everything imaginable, and you have a clue as to why so many people in power won't ever admit their wrong.
Its doing anything and everything to WIN, even if the merits of your argument are highly dubious.
4
Trump boots out Janet Yellen, and to replace her at the Fed:
Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback!
Pure genius.
3
"...a who’s who of conservative economists and pundits."
Not one of them admitted they were wrong? Of course not, because it is very likely that many of them are well-paid by corporations and foundations for their opinions, and it would not look good for them to admit error.
Yet again, money trumps ethics.
("None of them — not one — was even willing to admit having been wrong.")
2
It seems that Mr. Kelly failed to learn from the mistakes of another former general: Colin Powell. When you sacrifice your honor for someone who has none, you're the one with the egg on your face.
10
People who can't admit they made a mistake, who refuse to accept the possibility of being wrong will do great evil in this world. They are destructive to themselves and everyone around them.
3
Not admitting error is going global. Witness Brexit & the Catalonia debacle on both sides!
1
Hope Stanford doesn't have Taylor teaching students.
But wasn't it DT who said "when I make a mistake, it's a beaut"? Oh, wait, that was the Republican Harry Truman. Sorry, I mean the DEMocrat Truman.
“We tend to fight the next war in the same way we fought the last one. We are prisoners of our own experience. And many of the things that we learned that worked in World War II were not applicable to the war in Vietnam. We simply thought we’d go in with a sledge hammer and knock things down, clean them up, and it would be all over. “It was a kind of an oversimplification of the problem. Combined with our over-confidence that caused us, I think, to be arrogant, and IT'S VERY, VERY DIFFICULT TO DISPEL IGNORANCE IF YOU RETAIN ARROGANCE."
Sam Wilson, Army
In Burns and Novick, "Vietnam" (2017)
[Emphasis added.]
1
I am not exactly sure where the joke which you made lies in this landscape of ineptness and illusion building. Perhaps it is the whole notion of Bernanke, whose idea to print more money is perfectly in line with his reputed proclivity to provide economic security by loading surplus dollars in bales on to helicopters and dropping them on to the lawns of the members of the Federal Reserve. Inflation, seen as a totality vis a vis government policy is ever-present, and has been for some time, which is why there is seldom any real social progress, foreign policy progress, or for that matter any progress at all. The Doctrine of Trumpal Infallibility probably boils down to the idea that the surplus of printed dollars ought, by divine right, to be similarly dumped on the Trump White House lawn, an idea which, of course, President Trump invented himself. One could go into dizzying spins regarding "Walsal and Arsenal: Why England Was First" only to betray the idea that there is anything at all going on in the White House.
What you're talking about here is fundamental to the whole notion of labeling oneself "conservative".
First of all, never start with facts. As a "conservative" your starting point is ALWAYS something you already fanatically believe, whether true or not. The game is to then cherry-pick and assemble various factoids, anecdotes, rumors, conspiracy theories, gossip, misinformation and outright lies that--when you stir them all together--magically "prove" your preordained belief, hence you are never wrong.
Grownups do it the other way around, by first identifying what a problem actually is, then assembling as much evidence, facts, truth, reality--the kind of things right-wingers call "fake"--to let that evidence point to obvious solutions, which are then implemented, or at least tried, analyzed, proven or disproven, maybe even tried again.
There is no litmus test along the way to make sure the outcome adheres to a predetermined outcome. Grownups tend not to be so insecure about the things they believe, i.e., any belief can be wrong, and if proven so, a grownup will let it go. Toddlers who can't see beyond the tip of their own noses can't handle this part of the process--not enough screeching.
That such infantile deconstruction of the process of deduction is not only tolerated, but heartily encouraged by right-wingers should illustrate to anyone paying attention that this is part and parcel of so-called "conservative thought", an oxymoron if ever there was one.
4
The final paragraph by Paul Krugman sums up what we need to know about the conservative economists who predicted hyperinflation in 2009 after the Fed kept interest rates low and bought U.S. bonds. The conservatives were dead wrong, but they never admitted it.
Whether it is an economist or a former general, turned presidential chief-of-staff or an ignorant, emotionally fragile president does not matter. The refusal by anyone to apologize for a serious error is a character flaw. Such a person is dishonest and a moral coward.
While the main remarks of General John Kelly, recounting the death of his son, were honest and touching, Kelly felt the need to wade into political waters.
That was bad enough, but Kelly then misstated the words of Congresswoman Frederica Wilson by saying that she claimed credit for funding a new F.B.I. building. She actually had praised Republican Speaker John Boehner.
It got even worse, when General Kelly seemed to claim that President Obama was the force behind Rep. Wilson’s claims. Whether the assumption was made because they are both black, we do not know.
Next, it got disgusting when Kelly seemed to agree with President Trump’s blaming the fallen soldier’s widow for political grandstanding. The falsity of the Kelly/Trump blame game was easily proved.
So, after a few days and no apology, General Kelly expects the American people to trust him advising our unstable president on matters of existential importance to America.
Why would we trust him?
3
Facts are not infallible unless they are Trump Facts, which are not impeachable because they extol truthiness.
2
The stock market has been Trump's TV ratings since being elected. Why has it kept going up even though to 65% of Americans and certainly to a much higher % to the rest of the world, there's no longer any meaningful credibility in the office of the US presidency?
I want to believe that curious Trump voters, as opposed to maybe the 20% of his extraordinary low information voters, have realized we now have an extremely narcissistic clown directing the direction of our country.
And I want to believe that people with money in big companies learned something from the 2008 financial crisis. If Trump picks a Fed chair who thinks Paul Ryan knows something about the effects of the nation's monetary policy, it could cause a lot of these people to shake off their complacent denial of the dangers of Trump in the White House. A big blow to people's wallets could do wonders to wake them up!
Will they and the curious Trump voters with the help of the media let the Republican representatives in congress know they need to act on removing Trump asap?
1
Men and women with Taylor's character trait are unfortunately in charge of our country right now. So I will not e surprised if Taylor gets the job. More fuel to the fire already started by Trump, his Administration and the Congress and Senate.
1
Down here in the grassroots all I can do is try to fathom the nonsense neighbors spout when I ask why they don't regret backing Trump or staying in the GOP. But you, with your elite economic creds could have an interesting conversation with Taylor that should enlighten us all as to how insanity rules.
Speaking of character flaws, how about admitting that Trump’s claim of highest corporate tax is not a lie but a proven truth, corrected right here in the comment column? See:
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/lies-lies-lies-lies-lies-li...
Not only has Krugman glazed over the correction, he *repeated* the lie in a succeeding column. Hoping, perhaps, to make the shortlist he’s complaining about here. With Hillary gone and the Democratic Party vanishing on daily basis before our very eyes, that ain’t happening. Still, a correction and apology, followed by servings of admiration to his CIC, however grudging, is called for. Do it prof. Never mind Charles.
3
Yes, highest corporate tax rate, but in terms of actual taxes paid a bit different which may be what Krugman was referring to.
http://www.npr.org/2017/08/07/541797699/fact-check-does-the-u-s-have-the...
1
These guys never admit it when they are wrong because they don't think they are wrong. That's because their view of the world comes from media sources that are invented to tell them that they are always right. You can't get them to believe they are wrong, because anything that contradicts their blather is 'fake news'. I don't know how we can fix this.
1
He truly is the Teflon Don. Just today, the NYT wrote that the Congressional investigations into Russian hacking and possible collusion are in disarray and that there is no sign that any of the 3 committees will accomplish thorough and meaningful conclusions. So trump once again rides off into the sunset without a scratch. He can continue to plunder DC monies for his retirement and maybe start a war before he leaves!
Until Trump is actually held accountable for even 1 lie, he truly seems to be infallible. And Trump might just let us see his bald spot before he ever says 'I'm sorry' or 'I was wrong'.
2
Oh great.Thanks to the biggest mistake in American electoral history, we'll now have to deal with an economic crash brought on by aggressive rate-raising, climate change, nuclear war, a spiraling budget deficit, record levels of inequality, runaway racism/zenophobia, and a collapsing healthcare system, all at the same time! Yay!
2
Until we find a way to reverse Citizens United and expose the sources of money corrupting our political process, politicians will fail to serve the best interest of all citizens. NBC broadcast license s and “fake news” don’t threaten our democracy but the repeal of the Fairness Doctrine has in an age of mediocre education in America.
1
Non-moderate Republicans let loose always crash the economy. Trump will crash the economy not because he is a non-moderate Republican but because he is an incompetent guided by non-moderate Republicans. So we should expect it as it will happen even if he is impeached or just gets bored and resigns. Pence is a non-moderate Republican who almost destroyed Indiana. We are doomed and our only out is to change a house of congress in 2018. Otherwise we will get into another recession and who knows these ultra Right wingers may do as was done by their ilk before and put us into a depression which would allow their rich overlords to confiscate even more middle and lower class assets. They will smile with real affection on their puppets even as they destroy them and their puppets will lick their boots to keep the little they have left.
So 2018 is very important but do not think the Republicans do not know this. They are not going to pass any legislation to help the rich and hurt the rest of us until they know the pain will not hit until after the 2018 elections. Fox News and the right wing internet will not report the truth about any painful Republican legislation so the Trump followers and the Republican constituents will not hear of it. They will only feel it and if the Republicans are smart enough they will not feel it until after the 2020 elections. Not sure they are that smart or their overlords that patient. Happy Tuesday!
1
Mr. Krueger, you are a hoot! However, when you added the word 'profusely' to General Kelly's mock apology on behalf of Trump, the cat was out of the bag.
Big Men never admit they are sorry for their behavior and Big Girls don't cry...as a witness, in my experience this is not true. The biggest financial uproar took place with an economist I was working for, over a 12 cent invoice from the Electricity Company. It was on a Friday, and when I showed up after careful deliberation on Monday, he was waiting for me with flowers. Kidding!
He was waiting to see if I would show up to answer his phone and asked if I was all right. 'Many a troubled night has been soothed with thoughts of suicide' was my metallic reply, causing him to do a little anxious tap dance before we ironed out our differences.
The Financial Global Markets are watching Trump's behavior like a hawk with a telescope. It may suit China to have North Korea bully it out with Trump, while doing a little globe-trotting to check out the World for space, and then North Korea will be told to 'sit'.
We are not going to have a war with North Korea, but something is going to happen. The Economy is doing better than ever, brilliantly, but have you noticed that car sales in America have dipped slightly this year? You may wish to go 'Independent' to check whether this is correct.
We are going to elect Trump for a Second-Term. Fortunately I am not always right in making forecasts. There are forebodings.
1
The title of this article might well be "Lies, lies and more lies." Trump will never admit an error, and (most) Republicans will never call him on his errors or his lies. Concerning our economic 'policy,' and I'm using that term charitably, it seems that we are close to returning to that biggest Republican lie about the economy: that tax cuts (mainly for the rich) will pay for themselves and give the economy a big boost. (Oh, and not one mention of the word 'deficit,' which they shouted almost every day of Obama's presidency.) How so many can continue to perpetuate this disproven idea is beyond me. And this is the best policy that Republicans can offer? Heaven help us all.
2
Trump gets too many things wrong to count, or even speculate what will be next. What you can predict is that he will never own up to anything. Trump always blames someone else.
For his own mistakes, Trump's fingers have pointed at, variously: President Obama; Hillary Clinton; individual members of Congress; the Democrats; the media in general, CNN and NYT in particular; American intelligence agencies; assorted Judges; members of his own Cabinet; and more. But never where they belong, right towards himself.
Beware the scapegoating. It is the last refuge of a cowardly man who won't take basic responsibility for himself.
1
The springs that inspire action in the mind of a man like Trump are so deeply rooted in self glorification that they are beyond the reach of reason. He and his ilk are as likely to apologize as they are to truly understand; it will never, ever happen. We elected a petulant man-child, and he knows only how to scream for what he wants, and to bully others until he gets it.
1
You know, Krugman is an economist, you tell us the current Theory of Interest Rates and do a predictive example based on the last ten years... All yawl do in graduate school is Calculus and Statistics. The theory stops at undergraduate or MBA level. Where's that Chicago School when you need it? At least Keynesian Theory knows its pitfalls. Monetary and the "Great" Expectations Theories are bust! Dr. Krugman, can you rightly call yourself a doctor of philosophy? Well as in all "art" I've looked behind the curtains of all these Wizard's of Oz's" and it is just a picture of a nude.
Someday the Trump nightmare will end just as the Nixon nightmare ended. We are witnessing dysfunction on such a grand scale it confuses the viewer. How can so many Republicans support Trump? Well, some do it for personal gain, some to be close to power, some out of a shared bigotry, and some like social disruption for the sake of change. Whatever the reason when Trump is finally pried out of the Oval Office all of that gossamer support will go poof. Republicans your Trump time bomb is ticking -- shouldn't you throw it out the window now?
1
I fervently believe everything written in the this column. I bought TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) after the big outcry from the economists mentioned. I lost money on this. Thus I remember these foolish statements. Bravo Prof Krugman. At least he is will to point out the errors of fellow academics.
It is astonishing to me the complete lack of introspection, knowledge, vision and empathy Trump and this administration has. I never even heard of that term “doubling down”. Now it is the new norm. When attacked, hit back even if what you are being attacked for has some basis in fact. Don’t acknowledgle errors, just keep on attacking
.
“When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.” Socrates.
And does this have to do with the Feds? Yet another person who has no humility or introspection or willing to admit error appointed to a positon of importance. Just double down. That is the motto. The new norm.
I only hope that when this national nightmare is over with, we can restore some humility and civility amongst us.
1
Nothing we can say or do will make a difference to the Republicans.
The major question to contemplate, when will the (Certain, predictable) economic crisis hits, will the Reptilian base voters even notice increasing numbers of their "own" on the streets with "Will Work for Food" signs?
How will we counter the Propaganda Channel line that it is all Obama and those awful liburuls fault, somehow blocking (?) their promised return to the golden 1950's they imagine.
How do we help the base grasp Republican "ownership" of the looming disasters?
1
We must find a way to hold Elected Politicians personally liable for their actions - especially when human life, health and the environment we all share are at risk.
That may be the only way they will act on our behalf and not theirs!
We must find a way to hold Elected Politicians and their staffers, from both parties, personally liable, responsible and accountable for the lies they have told US, their gross mismanagement of our county, our $20.4 T and growing national debt (108% of GDP), and our $100 T in future, unfunded liabilities they forced on US jeopardizing our economic and national security, while benefiting themselves, their staffers, their party and special interest donors.
http://www.usdebtforum.com
1
New York City's greatest mayor, Fiorello Laguardia, once said, "I don't make many mistakes, but when I do, it's a beaut." Where is the Little Flower now that we need him?
"Trumpal infallibility — the insistence on clinging to false ideas and refuted claims, no matter what ". while Trump never apologizes, he cannot be accused of sticking to false or refuted ideas; in fact, he can't be accused of sticking to any ideas at all. If we have learned anything about Trump (besides the obvious one that he is, as Bernie declared during the primaries, a compulsive or pathological liar) he can barely be said to even have ideas., let alone sticking to them.
To be fair we have an administration that is willing to admit past errors. Everything that was done by Obama.
4
Picking the errors you want to admit to is no piece of heroism -- the difficulty comes when you're unable to concede error, at all. Dr. Krugman may be an advance on John Taylor here, but he's no more given to agonizing reappraisals than the opposition.
How, for example, explain his dilatory, weak and grudging criticism of investors' rights agreements ("free trade deals", in the words of NYT) which never delivered their promises, but of which he was once a loud booster?
Or his long and lost dispute with other economists over bank lending?
Or his impugning of an economist he never read, because Very Important People said the work must be wrong (it made Sanders look too good). And his conduct in general during the primary -- the remorseless Sanders' slurs against both Sanders and his supporters.
Mea culpa, anyone?
1
Alas you've gotten it wrong Professor. They are not mistakes- they're fake news!
What's funny/sad is that many of these folks consider themselves religious. And just about every religion teaches that making mistakes is OK- what's necessary is to apologize and admit one's error.
The GOP is now a religion. You can't have a rational argument with a religion by definition.
2
from my forthcoming poetry collection:
Thine is the Kingdom
He stares into the lens,
interrupting without a blink,
insisting he alone comprehends
how his failing enemies stink.
They appear in various disguises,
accusations foul with fakery.
Before dawn his bread rises,
sustenance from his half-bakery.
Eyes flitting from maps to charts,
he supposes ruling is a cinch—
Master the Machiavellian arts.
Scowl for photos. Never flinch.
Never apologize.
Remind everyone your name
trumps others’ alibis.
Always assign blame.
Krugman nails the fact that Republicans inhabit a NeverNever Land from which truth and reason are banned. What a kindred spirit his never-admit-mistakes economists have in our Republican President. The one who spent five years proclaiming that Obama was foreign born and, therefore, his entire presidency was illegal and un-Constitutional--and Republicans not only did not rebuke him, they rewarded him with their presidential nomination and elected him president.
And how have Republicans reacted to having an overtly congenital liar as president, who's litanies of lies since becoming president number in the hundreds? Republicans have simply made lying a way of life. Quick: When was the last time you heard Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Orrin Hatch, or Nikki Haley criticize Trump for telling another lie? Republicans do not care.
The same Republican liars who offered a health care bill that denied health care to millions of American and provided tax cuts for the rich and peddled it as genuine "reform" now tell the same baldfaced lie about their tax "reform." More frightening, Republicans tell the Big Lie that torch light paraders chanting "Jews will not replace us" included ordinary Americans concerned about Confederate monuments.
America will not survive three more years of this assault on its basic morals and democratic values. The Republicans' assault on common human decency is more lethal than the ones they dealt with McCarthyism, Watergate, and Irangate--combined.
1
Another insightful article by Mr. Krugman . . . unfortunately, if Trump nominated Scott Baio to be chairman of the Fed, "the base" would applaud.
1
So Mr. Krugman, can you admit your error in backing Hillary Clinton and trashing Bernie Sanders, even after the election was over? Can you admit that you were part of the establishment liberal media that helped get us into this mess?
2
We all thought that Gen. Kelly was the adult in the room that would instill some civility. Unfortunately, he has been influenced by the kids - lie - fabricate - just degrade the person who dared be critical of President Trump. Kelly said that he was at the dedication of the building and heard X,Y, and Z. Pure fabrication. Yes - how dare we question the veracity of a four star general. Kelly's fabrication created a mockery of his ENTIRE presentation. If you lie in one section, you are hardly sincere in the rest. I was "stunned" - as Kelly likes to say. Shame on him!
Studying up on UFO cults is actually prudent in this case. Every time a prophecy does not fulfill itself, instead of rationally admitting error, it actually acts a reinforcement mechanism. Infallibility is a heck of a drug.
"Trumpal"? Your point's valid but seriously, it's not as though Trump invented denial of the obvious. His aggressive version is just standard Republican shamelessness done up in gilt and neon, Trump style. The paper keeps treating Trump as some surprising aberration. He's an extrapolation of what the GOP's been doing for 40 years in our era, and of what Conservatism has been doing for 60+ years since Buckley. This is their truth: there is no truth. There's "truth".
1
John Kelly is a civilian.
Not lately very civil, but a civilian none-the-less.
Please stop referring to him as 'a former general and a man of honor'.
He is now just one of those things.
If memory serves, Satan was once an angel.
People forget that fact.
For very good reasons.
2
I love seeing the turmoil caused by the Trump haters. They still can't get over their favorite woman of the week, Hillary Clinton, lost the election by a wide majority.
3
That leaves out Trump and his associates because "denial" is their first and last line of defense for all errors, which for the most part all begin with lies they knew they were making in order to pull the wool over someone's eyes. It is impossible to believe that anyone could be that consistently stupid, so they seem committed to dishonesty as being the most controllable and productive way for them. Having "character" never entered their mind. It's all about being tough and infallible, believing that it will get them ahead. It doesn't matter to them that the country will ultimately be set back and cleaning up their mess for years. These are people stuck in their adolescence and using lying to create a false sense of strength and independence, while simultaneously avoiding all responsibility for any ill consequences. Of these, there will be many but to others not them, kind of like what a drug abuser does to the people around him.
1
Mr. Krugman, there is a rumor that you were once economist--although from your recent columns, I would say you're just another crazed Progressive pundit-shocked and dismayed to wake up each day, with the realization that Donald Trump is your president.
If you are truly an economist--how about writing a column about what the stock market has done since Trump has been elected? Trillions of dollars of wealth have been created in the past year in Roths, Keoghs, 401 K's and pension plans. The question is WHY? And thus--the reason you continue to avoid the subject.
You are a Socialist, Mr. Krugman--a Progressive cheerleader for extreme left-wing causes, and a shill for the Democrat party. You won't acknowledge the performance of the stock market--because it will force you to address the exuberance that CEO's and investors have for CAPITALISM--the prospects of an improving economy with free market reforms, lowering of taxes, and lessening of onerous regulations. You won't write about the stock market, because you don't want your readers to face the realization that CAPITALISM is the only system that improves the lives and fortunes of all citizens. It does the most good for the greatest amount of people. You won't talk about the market, simply because it has responded positively in turning away from Socialist governance.
Be an economist again, Mr. Krugman. Take a break from bashing Trump twice a week--and write about what's going on in the economy. Do you dare?
3
The stock market is benefiting from the solid economic steps taken by the previous administration. Corporate profits are doing well and employment is up. Nothing Trump has done has caused these factors. The hope for corporate tax reductions is a prop to what is going on.
1
In other words, blame Bush for the 8 years Obama was in office--but give all credit to Obama for the 8 years Trump will be president.
Oh my gosh! Republicans rejecting empirical evidence when it contradicts their theories! I'm astounded. Truly. They all try to look so reasonable, with their suits and ties and barbershop quartet haircuts. What happened?
Minimum forecast error is not lying.
"Everyone makes forecast errors.” Yes, they do. Some are more meaningful than others.
One reasonable forecast is “our national debt, like trees, cannot and will not grow to the sky.”
Yet, Trump and the Republicans are using self-constructed, error filled assumptions of GDP and revenue growth, and who will benefit. They are ramming them down our throats.
These are not forecasting errors. They are lies. And, the Republican Elected Politicians are aiding and abetting in advancing these lies for their benefit.
They are forecasting a big legislative WIN! Let’s hope they make a forecasting error!
We must find a way to hold Elected Politicians and their staffers, from both parties, personally liable, responsible and accountable for the lies they have told US, their gross mismanagement of our county, our $20.4 T and growing national debt (108% of GDP), and our $100 T in future, unfunded liabilities they forced on US jeopardizing our economic and national security, while benefiting themselves, their staffers, their party and special interest donors.
http://www.usdebtforum.com
Isn't this what a King and his Court do?
Perhaps we should take lessons on how to properly grovel.
1
It would be helpful if Mr. Krugman could explain how the government concludes there has been no, or only tolerable, inflation. Excluding fuel and food from the CPI, of course, lets the government create a false impression of inflation while actual inflation across the country spreads like wildfire. The government standard, however formed, has avoided any social security adjustment for the last three years, as food and housing prices have skyrocketed out of control. While I think the Fed's policy of buying up mortgages was necessary to avoid a major depression, I believe we all paid a heavy price for it - one more example of a government design to benefit the rich. It is also a sorry fact that, because of inflation, a $60,000 salary these days barely provides enough for a middle class family to maintain a decent standard of living. Mr. Krugman, help!
1
"Trumpal infallibility" reminds me of a study about apologies.
When doctors apologize [and offer compensation for their mistakes], liability suits decrease, which saves money.
http://annals.org/aim/article/745972/liability-claims-costs-before-after...
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/02/upshot/to-be-sued-less-doctors-should...
Learning this changed my behavior and improved my relationships, both personal and professional.
68
It's quite simple, really. Raising interest rates would 1) enrich banks and other financial institutions and the superrich who invest in them, 2) financially ruin much of the population and facilitate their expropriation by financial institutions, and 3) raise borrowing costs for the government, forcing a reallocation of government resources toward the superrich 0.01% and away from the 99.99%. If economists are funded by the superrich, as anyone at the Hoover Institution is, how they justify raising interest rates is unimportant. Any old argument will do.
4
The whole concept of fiat currency rests on the role of banks to make a market in the time value of money. Monetary policy determines yield curves, how much reward is paid to defer one's own spending to another agent who needs the money more urgently, at what risk.
Kelly, like Colin Powell, was fed a lie and took the lie to be truth. Like Powell, he lied to the world, but unlike Powell, he did it at the cost of decency of a gold star family. That seems the most shameful thing I can dream up for a former general.
Kelly, like Powell, will be living with his decision for the rest of his days. Like Powell, Kelly seemed a reasonable, dependable and honest man; now he's just another sycophant helping trump monetize the office of the presidency.
SAD.
Let's hope Mueller puts a stop to this criminal and sociopathic behavior. I don't think this country can take this much winning!
196
God, I love Paul Krugman. After days and days of despairing about what our country has come to, I take hope from something written by a genuinely good and intelligent man. Thank you.
10
No problemo, Professor K., "a who’s who of conservative economists and pundits" will just keep being wrong until they have a Democratic administration to blame it all on.
7
The Trump Presidency has exposed a critical weakness in Democratic rule: you can do and say whatever you want if you're never going to be held accountable for anything. And short of symbolic finger wagging, Trump and his administration really haven't been held accountable for much of anything.
3
The relevant historical comparison for the Age of Trump is Classical Rome.
From the triumphal return of Julius Caesar with his legions across the Rubicon that ended the Republic through the Age of Augustus and his divination through the moral degenerate crass corruption of the divine likes of Tiberius, Caligula and Nero. While Julius Caesar triumphed over the Gallic tribes and their leader, Augustus lost three legions to Germanic tribes and their Roman trained leader turning against Rome in a German forest.
The primary danger of Trump comes from his three generals appealing to his worst demonic dark nature and nurture instincts for tough talk. Sending America into an economic tail-spin by war is the ultimate nightmare.
Economics is not a science. There are too many variables and unknowns to create useful controls along with repeatable predictable results. The Nobel Prize in Economics is merely the Swedish National Bank Prize in Economics in memory of Alfred Nobel. The doctrine of economic infallibility is as mythical as papal infallibility.
2
Other than the world of economics, there are many dogmas in the human society. People worship dogma as science. For example, the theory that Alzheimer's disease is caused by plaques and tangles is one of the dogmas as Dr. Dale Bredesen of University of California and others have proved with evidences. The theory that cancer is caused by the mutation of nuclear genes is another dogma that late Dr.Otto Warburg, a Nobel laurite, Dr. Thomas Seyfried of Boston College and many others have proved with evidences. It looks like destiny of outstanding scientists to fight against dogmas that many mediocre scientists follow.
The infamous late Mrs. Simpson who married the ex-King of England always held to the "never complain, never explain" method of dealing with most unpleasant situations.
Trump et al appear to be using a variation called "always complain but never, ever apologize when wrong."
2
A rule of thumb I follow in all fields is to never accept a field of study that has never been wrong. To me it's the only way to be assured that that method of inquiry and findings are getting closer to the truth.
If you think about it when was the last time you heard an astrologer say that we used to think Mars rising meant... but now we know that it means ... Or a homeopathic doctor saying that we used to think the proper way to dilute was to ... but now ... Or a conservative economist to ever come up with a solution to any problem that doesn't involve cutting taxes.
Thank you Prof. Krugman for admitting error. It gives me more confidence in your analysis.
2
A physicist, a chemist and an economist are adrift at sea in a row boat, with only an unopened can of beans.
The physicist suggests that they hold the can up to the sun and that in time, the heated can will pressurize and burst, allowing them to eat the beans.
The chemist suggests that they hold the can in the ocean, and that in time, the salt water will corrode the can, allowing them to remove the top and eat the beans.
The economist says, "NO! You're both wrong. First, assume we have a can opener."
2
I suppose that arguing with General William Westmoreland over whether or not the U.S. was winning the war in Vietnam would have been highly inappropriate, too.
2
Profound analysis of the dysfunction of our current history and the failure of our government to adapt to new knowledge.
Fortunately over the full sweep of the history we have been able to adapt as evidenced by our population increase and increase in life expectancy.
Humans made a lot of progress in the 19th and 20th Centuries but it seems that our recognition of the consequences of using fossil fuels as a source of energy is being ignored and we are failing to act to begin adapting the US and global economy to a non-fossil energy economy.
I am reasonably certain that this is the highest priority human security problem which must be solved in order for the 9 Billion fellow humans to survive and continue to improve humanity's quality of life.
To avoid economic collapse we must begin to use our resources to invent/innovate/and create a new economic future. The technologies that collectively make up our quality of life must be adapted to non-fossil energy.
I propose that government mobilize our labs and industries to create very low cost electricity from solar, wind, ocean thermal electric technology, and space solar satellites to beam power to Earth. We must harden our grid from the force of foul weather, and we should electrify our freight transport with an advanced surface Maglev guideway system that will permit the transport of goods on delivery trucks at 300 mph as well as passengers. It will pay for itself. See www.magneticglide.com for the concept.
1
Pray explain why it's so terrible that savers get 3 or 4% interest on their money?? Why is the only game in town the stock market? Will GE continue to
crash??
Without an estate tax why wasn't the luxury tax reinstituted to help close the Federal Deficit? (Why did WJC get rid of it? I know the answer to that one-- the luxury yahct market -- non argument. Why can one buy a 170,000,000 USD at auction and legally not pay one penny in state tax?
Why are cap gains taxed at a lower rathe than ordinary income? Shouldn't they be taxed at higher rate.. as there was no actual labor on the part of the investor. (well a telephone call - at most. usually.)
Name-calling, character assassination does not ever answer any questions..
I think a 3.5% interest rate would help normalize what seems to be a hyper market.
Rather tired of being told I need to gamble on Wall Street long term -- my long term at this point in time might be 18 years... more or less. and GE - a widows and orphans' stock is no more that at all.
The conservatives are simply applying the Stopped Clock Theory to their economic policies, eventually they will be momentarily correct, and in that instant expect them to scream "I told you so!"
It's always amusing when practitioners of the Dismal Science such as John Taylor deny empirical evidence they are WRONG!Why don't we just save time and return to the tax rates for individuals & corporations to those of the Eisenhower era? Then we will REALLY hear the wails & gnashing of teeth by Taylor and others.
If nothing less, at least adopt the rates & structure of the Nineties, when Bush 41 & Clinton BOTH had tax increases, which likely led to Bush's defeat & Clinton's plurality in 1992. We had a pretty good economy briefly for a couple of years until brick & mortar stores & mall lost customers to Web shopping.
In reality, we probably should have 4-5 individual rates, with the super-wealthy paying more, especially hedge fund managers, venture capitalists & other financial wizards/hucksters. That's called a "progressive tax". Raise the earnings limit for Social Security recipients to $50,000-75,000 annually, remove the ceiling on FICA taxes, & means test for all retirees with over $500,000/$1,000,000 annually.
Reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% and eliminate ALL deductions aside from the personal deduction, which would require an increase. I'm certain some computer magician could find a workable algorithm for the long run.
These steps would be a good start to return from the GOP's economic Fantasyland & free lunches for the super-wealthy, not to mention endless tax abatements & other economic giveaways to corporations & developers.
Don't turn the US into Kansas.
1
I am going out on a limb and predicting that Trump's nominee for Fed chair will have 2 qualities that should disqualify them:
They have been consistently wrong about the policies that helped us recover from the depression [sic] of 2008;
They will swear both fealty and loyalty to Trump and promise to erratically pursue monetary policies that either suit his whims at the moment or guarantee larger profits for his enterprises
2
I came to Mexico last June with my husband (who had family matters to take care of) to escape the incomprehensibility of a trump presidency. As hard as I have tried to understand what happened in November 2016, I keep coming back to the same place: a candidate who never anticipated winning, but aided and abetted by Russia, suddenly finds himself in the White House. What to do? Run the country like your last venture - a low-IQ reality TV program. Work it so that all of your remarks in office are attention-getting, and leave the country in suspense every Friday evening while you take off to golf, change your wardrobe, fix your hair and makeup, and show up Mondays for next week's drama. Here in Mexico I go back and forth between cancelling subscriptions, refusing to watch the news, reading everything I can get my hands on regarding this so-called presidency, and either refusing or relishing conversations with other ex-pats about the travesty playing itself out every day in the news. It's not fascinating, and it's not a train wreck that you can't help looking at. It's my country, and my children's country, and my grandchildren's country, and my husband's adopted country that is slowly being taken apart and diminished by someone who wouldn't understand the second part of this commentary regarding the Fed, interest rates and fiscal policy if all three branches of government slapped him in the face simultaneously.
4
Keynes once responded to a heckler “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Trump and his minions offer "alternative facts".
1
The main reason to raise interest rates would be to cause a recession. A recession will bring down wages so who wins with that economic down turn, the people who pay your wages. Life will go on for the wealthy but the middle class will be pushed even further to the edge.
The rational answer has to be there is no inflation so we should stay the course, but the republicans are determined to inflict pain on those who have no power. Who are the people that will feel the most pain? Those people who were duped into voting for Mr. Trump. May God help us all!
1
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
But Trump is attracted to only these types.
A similar, if not identical, argument could be made about fundamentalists who argue in favor of the Pentatuch presentation of the Creation despite decades, if not centuries, of scientific study. Faith versus fact: some for one, some for the other.
1
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility." That is the obvious reason Trump should be impeached. Impeachment ("high crimes and misdemeanors" in the 18th century sense) includes that.
1
If Trump is bound and determined to nominate a Taylor, how about Taylor Swift? She sings better, looks better, is more personable, and is apparently in the same ball park as an economist. She could even double as a spiritual adviser, since she is at least as sensible as Paula White, and been married three times fewer. This could be Trump's first budget cutting move that doesn't directly shorten the lives of 20M Americans! It just slays me that Trump continues to have the support of 80% of his voters. Unfortunately, it may well slay the rest of us too.
1
One of the most common characteristics of alcoholics or of adult children of alcoholics (or other addicts) is that they lie when it would be just as easy to tell the truth.
I've seen that characteristic in acquaintances, and I see it in Trump. The difference is that my friends' lies are harmless; about trivial things that are quickly forgotten.
But with enough lies from the Oval Office, reputations are ruined, the economy crashes, and we're in World War III.
3
“And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility.”
I am no expert on economic theory or the Fed.
I do know that Trump has us on the cusp of nuclear war, and he has obstructed justice – directly violating the Constitution – and he has colluded with Russia, and he has threatened to shut down the free press. Trump supports racism and white supremacy, he is an existential threat to the global environment along with worldwide efforts to combat global warming and climate change, and he is wreaking havoc on our national educational system. He is actively engaged in the overt destruction of the Paris Climate Accord, the Iran nuclear deal, NAFTA, and the TPP. He is reinstituting death panels for national health care.
We can continually talk about the next act in Trump’s House of Horrors, but we already know it will be just another – horror.
Go door-to-door and talk with your neighbors explaining these points to them. In particular, do they want to be incinerated in a nuclear conflict with a third-world dictator who we have absolutely no business thrusting into the limelight? Do they want their families to be healthy without being bankrupted? Would they like their children to have the education they need to compete in the global ecosystem of the 21st century?
If we can get Trump and his GOP cronies out, and we can get Democrats in, we can spend our time in more fruitful discussions and activities – as well as in a better world.
3
your are dead wrong that the federal reserve "bought trillions of dollars in bonds" In fact the fed law is specifically that the fed CAN NOT PURCHASE BONDS. You may call it "monetary policy " or whatever. The did acquire the bonds buy a sham. Their member banks did buy the bonds from the treasury. so then they would have title to the bonds. Question how did the Yrellen get control of the bonds. She didn't pay one dime for them she could not and did have a trillion dollars to pay for them. And you know there is something fishy. Because the law also states that any excess monies they fed has SHALL BE TRANSFERrED TO THE GOVERNMENT TREASURY. iF Yellen has control of the bonds then she should turn them over to the Treasury. So first who actually is going to get the interest off those bonds. What she did was increase the balance sheets of the member banks to cover the amount they paid the treasury. But then never made and liability entry anywhere in the fed flakey balance sheets. In fact she did exactly what you said she did not do. It doesn't matter whether she prints money and gives it to her member banks or just makes a computer entry. It is the same thing. One thing for sure no bonds where bought. Its just one big shell game that there is no way to undo. And Yelllen knows it. The money has already been spent by the government. The rub is going to come when the bonds come up to be paid. who's going to get the money. And where is it coming from
Go learn how open market operations work. Most of your post is simply wrong.
Never admitting makes a person live in a self-delusion that s/he is right. The fate of our country is in the hand of this type of people. My only hope is the 2018 election, if the country is not destroyed then.
Unless the friction of rubbing against the solipsitic mendacity of Donald Trump had completely worn away his integrity, John Kelly has two choices apologise to Fredericka Wilson, or resign. He has already severely damaged his credibility. A subsequent failure to make amends can't be tolerated. Kelly was chosen for his integrity, its imperative he reclaims it.
1
Yeah, but conservative thinking these days is not about managing the economy properly, or even achieving more and more prosperity -- rich people did much better under Clinton and Obama than they did under Bush, because the economy grew so much under the Dems. Conservative thinking is about keeping a certain group of people on top, whether things are good or not. As a result, a failed forecast is way less important than whether you subscribe to the beliefs of the cult.
"Four years after that open letter to Bernanke, [advising the fed not to leave interest rate about zero, none of the signatories] ... was even willing to admit having been wrong."
How should their students for instance react to such wrong economic arguments?
In May 1932, FDR said, “The country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something.” And James Meade, a Nobel Laureate in Economics (1977) said, “The frontiers of knowledge when it comes to economics keep expanding at such a rate that it is almost impossible to establish a soundly based understanding of the entire subject and its ever evolving parts.”
Thus economics is too complex & "slippery" with too many moving parts to be encompassed in a static formula to go by. At the same time, economic policies adopted by the powers that be are critical to the welfare of the public at large. Imagine if John Taylor were the fed-chairman, instead of Bernanke, what could have been the result?
1
Your truly, I respectfully disagree with you. Easy money, in most cases, will cause inflation. Of course US is currently in a unique situation so market force is distorted. Global money has nowhere else to go so they have no choice. But how much longer do you think this will last? Thank in huge part to Trump, US is losing the world leadership. Thank to the efforts of GOP and Trump, US is becoming anti-science and US politics is becoming toxic. US is not the "shinning city upon the hill" to the rest of the world anymore. The bubbles of Silicon Valley will burst sooner or later. Paris and Toronto are becoming more attractive to global talents. It is only a matter of time.
Ironically, easy money is just like climate change. It will take some time to realize the true effects. But it will be too late if we ever reach to that point.
1
Clearly, if you do ot make mistakes "prophesizing" the future in economics, it is because you are not taking risks. Any science is only useful if it can foretell the future of any action; if not, "you do not have an economic theory."
And of course, the world changes, Keynes was "very" applicable in the 40's; not so much anymore, because the globalization.
I had two ideas to share.
1. inflation might be kept in check by the realities of Globalization. As time goes by and business exits America for lower cost lands, the sum total of expenditures on goods remains essentially the same as an ongoing rebalance of internal and lowering external prices result in a steady market, or total cost of goods of living for a typical family or individual. Sooner or later there will be inflation, but not until Globalization and the exodus of wealth and business abates.
2. You are a very good teacher, driven by principle and a need to lead and educate the public in your never ending drive to help Americans. You won the recognition of the Nobel Committee for your accomplishments in economics and probably education. You are driven to help everyone and you care about everyone. You would be a good leader of the Federal Reserve, not just because of your stellar qualifications and experience, but because you are a terrific teacher who could guide the public to better lives through your excellent educational abilities. I certainly hope you are on the list of potential Fed chairmen. I'm not leaving an apple on your desk. I really mean it.
The historians who believe in the "few good men" theory of history should pause and see how a toxic environment shapes and distorts whatever "good character" individuals bring to their job as public officials. Aung San Suu Kyi is a case in point. Possibly a person with good intentions, even of good character, who was turned by the priorities of a twisted political culture and hierarchy. Kelly has succumbed to seeing the world through the reality-distorting lens of the White House leadership, much as the Emperor Haile Selassie's courtiers were obliged to view reality not as it was but through the eyes of their great and infallible leader, at least this how I recall Kapuscinski's description of the Ethiopian court during the last days of the emperor. He has become another whirling dervish, like Miller, Spicer and Scaramucci, Conway and Sarah Sanders. His moral disintegration makes clear that no individual can restrain Trump's destructive tendencies.
Many of rich people live off interest. They are called the Idle Rich. Since the Bernanke move these people have suffering. Some may even have had to take jobs to pay for Little Buffie's cotillion. This is the real reason behind raising rates. Inflation is the excuse. Maintaining the life styles of the idle rich is the real reason.
Ideological psychosis trumps rationality. We see this in Iowa, where fevered imagination is trying to substitute for a functional health care policy despite fantasy quite obviously failing to cope with reality.
I do like reading Paul Krugman's essays. I often agree with him. I agree with him on this one. Of course a person ought to rethink a theory that not only bears no fruit, but bears anti-fruit. He admits to getting carried away by emotion when he predicted a market dip after TRUMP's electoral victory. He mea culpa-ed.
In retrospect would Mr. Krugman rethink his seemingly blind support for HRC and his dismissal of Sanders?
1
"That kind of behavior makes it all too likely that you’ll keep making the same mistakes; but more than that, it shows something wrong with your character. And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
So it looks like John Taylor of Stanford is the next nominee for the Fed Chairman, then.
Benjamin Disraeli was only 75% correct. He omitted the most consequential lie of all: Economics.
When business people have an objective--a highly profitable objective--they assemble a team of cooperative lawyers, economists, consultants, researchers, etc., to argue in favor of that objective, either in the courts or the media. Right or wrong, truth or falsehood doesn't really matter. What contributes to the most persuasive case? What moves the polls? That's the only question. So Dr. K, the righteousness of his cause notwithstanding, is attacking a straw person here. If you see someone championing an "idea" in America, it is only because it advances a particular strategy at a particular time or distracts attention from a fact that undermines the strategy.
Our economic policies should pass "the arithmetic test, and far more important, . . . the values test." to steal from President Clinton's speech, thanks for reminding us of his powerful words.
As usual Dr. K you've got it all wrong. Trump proved his infallibility as an economist when he pointed out what most other economists, including yourself, missed: namely that the soaring stock market is reducing our deficit thus justifying a $1.5 trillion tax cut for the rich. About 36% of the nation, at last count, believes that Trump knows more about everything than anyone else because he keeps telling us how smart he is. And most Republicans still believe in trickledown economics.
2
This is the big reason I can not stomach Trump or the GOP. They will never admit they were or are wrong and thus will never learn from their mistakes.
1
Here are two reasons for gradually raising interest rates: (1) retirees are struggling to survive on historically low yields from relatively safe investments (a few years for the sake of the team is okay, but 10 and counting is absurd), (2) low rates are simply inflating asset prices way beyond affordability to all but the wealthy (just one aspect of the bifurcation of wealth). Let's get back to normal - whatever that is. Also, the current measures of inflation are much lower than actual functional inflation - just ask a poor person.
2
What will higher interest rates do to our deficit?
Isn't this like saying we cannot afford our mortgage of $500,000 @ 2.5%, can't we please raise the interest rate to 10%!
What is going on in the rightwing world?
People who can't admit their own errors make policy all the time. Many are in universities.
2
Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
It's not surprising that people who join Trump's administration are corrupted; what does surprise me is how quickly it happened to a man like General Kelly. He took hardly any time to fall into the groove: when caught in a mistake or a lie, insist loudly that you were right and truthful, and attack the character and intelligence, or sanity, of anyone who points your error out. Do this by exaggerating, or inventing, something to say about the person. When caught in that lie, deny again.
Kelly's devolution makes me think of the last line of "1984": "Winston's education was complete: he loved Big Brother."
This appears to be yet another Trumpian use of the propaganda tool, the Big Lie. Fox News has perfected it over the years: make a false statement, react to proof of the falsity of the statement by repeating the lie even more emphatically, and repeat. The ability to reflect and learn is subsumed by the need to be right, no matter what contrary facts are demonstrated. In an administration in which alternative facts are an acceptable explanation, an expectation that a correction will be made when error occurs is a pipe dream. And the dream has the potential to be a nightmare for us all.
The era of political infallibility began in 1979 with the election of the Iron Lady in Britain. Refusal to backtrack from obvious policy errors, or apologise for mistakes has become a pastime for many politicians over the intervening four decades, who confuse it with strength, resulting in the dramatic loss of trust faced by all political parties today, and culminating in the current walking disaster in the White House!
Maggie Thatcher! Now that's a woman many Americans could have voted for instead of Hillary Clinton.
In the wake of Nixon's quitting the presidency, I recall how citizens from America and beyond declared that lying, cheating and deceit from the highest of offices would be the third rail of all political careers. And then the USA elected the affably dangerous Reagan.
Not so long later, our expectations for those seeking public office had become somewhat eroded; that our elected officials might not embarrass us too badly, too often, and especially not when sent to represent us beyond our shores. And then the Bush Reign of Error just sorta, um, happened.
Just when we believed, post-Dubya, the bar couldn't go lower than farm slop, up from the mire jumped the Oaf in Chief (or, OinC if you will) and his pen of everyman billionaires. (And I do see Trump et.al as a window flung open into the One Percent's closed society: its manqué conception of the public good.) Can it really be that we're now reduced to hoping that the collateral carnage triggered by a superpower's leadership can be kept under a million humans?
It's fairly easy to detect a trend across GOP administrations. Which begs the unmentionable question of whether the future holds something somehow worse. Imagine that if you can.
Are the majority of economists ever right at any given moment or about any given issue?
2
Says a lot about the so-called liberal media that these people can be raised to position again and again without any mainstream appraisal of these facts or the candidate's past actions.
There is no liberal media. There is only corporate interests, and those are represented by the party that benefits from both the truth and the lie. The GOP. Down with them.
It's similar to my friend who always bets on the underdog. He was boasting about picking a winner one day and his daughter said, "Dad you always pick the underdogs, you are bound to win one bet!"
1
After General Kelly's performance on Thursday, we have one fewer person to protect us from Trump's incompetence.
Incidentally, the Pope is also infallible according to Catholic doctrine. However, he hasn't inserted his infallibility since 1950. That's the way to maintain credibility.
On the other hand, Trump last asserted his infallibility five minutes ago.
They think they're at war, and in wartime lying is allowed, even required. Truth is never the goal now. Victory is.
A John Maynard Keynes was reputed to say, "When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?"
It is a simply and obvious fact of life that if you can't admit your mistakes in solving problems then you can't learn from your mistakes or have any hope of fixing your problem, and more likely then not you will keep making the same mistakes over and over again.
My question is when will the people who voted for and continue to support Trump and the Republican Party ever admit their mistake and learn from it. Its looking more and more like never, and what does that say about their character?
1
"And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility."
Truer words were never spoken, and every day we are experiencing the disaster of having so many of those men in the administration, led by the "Flawed Man in Chief" himself.
Infallible."Incapable of making mistakes or being wrong". Synonyms: unerring, unfailing, faultless, flawless, impeccable, perfect, precise, accurate, meticulous, scrupulous. "never failing; always effective". "not liable to mislead, deceive, or disappoint" Is there anyone so deluded as to believe any of those terms refer, even in passing, to Donald Trump?
But the truly frightening thing is that so many of Trump's voters and supporters, including most of his cabinet and advisers - and certainly the Vice President - have drunk the Kool Aid, and have publicly exonerated even the worst examples of his undeniable fallibility.
The cult of Trump. Yes, I fear for a Pence Presidency, but the myth of infallibility does not envelope him, and if he wears no clothes, people will be wont to point it out - not deny it. Then we may have a chance as a people, a nation, to weather this GOP perfect storm.
1
"So what happens to economists who never admit mistakes, and never change their views in the light of experience?"
They win the so-called Nobel prize in Economics. So-called because it is opposed by the heirs of the Nobel family, it muscles in on the prestige of the real Nobels, and was in fact created by a bank, not Alfred Nobel.
The fiscal infallibles are like conservative science-deniers who dismiss the reality of climate change. Who cares about facts or truth? Power, money, political gain--these are the goals. And rampant lying is the means of reaching these goals.
"We are ruled by men who never admit error, never apologize and, crucially, never learn from their mistakes. Needless to say, men who think admitting error makes you look weak just keep making bigger mistakes; delusions of infallibility eventually lead to disaster, and one can only hope that the disasters ahead don’t bring catastrophe for all of us."
Couldn't have said it better.
We are ruled by economists like you, Mr.Krugman, and with it the fraudulent bankers and paid-for politicians that have wreaked havoc across the planet for decades, that have "neither admitted error nor apologized" for all the damage their false religion of neoliberalism and unfettered capitalism has inflicted on mankind and Planet Earth.
Your "insistence on clinging to false ideas and refuted claims, no matter what" has brought the planet to this breaking point and simply deflecting by saying someone like John Taylor is worse - just doesn't cut it.
"That kind of behavior makes it all too likely that you’ll keep making the same mistakes; but more than that, it shows something wrong with your character."
Which makes me hope that "men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility", no matter how much potential they once had, how good they were to concede that "every economist makes bad forecasts now and then", or "that maybe something was wrong with his initial analysis",...
thanks, but no thanks, I agree with you. Who would want that?
Great column, btw.
3
Trump has never been wrong in his life. Even the bankruptcies were good because he got “his” money out before the other investors lost theirs. And being President? Well it seems much harder than expected, but so many people say they love him, which is great, and there is so much money being made by Trump business, and Vlad forgave all those loans ... no, Trump, is all right, all the time ... hallelujah!
" men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility"
oops.
Well Dr. Krugman we have one of them sitting behind the Resolute desk filling the government with more of them.
I weep...
The ‘grandiose self’, within psychoanalytic theory, is an archaic infantile structure unaltered by normal life experience. The phantasy of omnipotence has persisted. Growth has meant developing defensive techniques of walling up that structure. The cladding appears adult but the core impulse is that of a child, a very selfish and determined child.
"So what happens to economists who never admit mistakes..."
I'm trying to remember when an economist was actually right about something.
1
Looks like maybe the Republicans are trying real hard to crash the Obama economic boom so they can continue to blame the former President.
Reminds me of this...
"Can't you understand what's happening here? Don't you see what's happening? Potter isn't selling. Potter's buying! And why? Because we're panicking and he's not. That's why. He's picking up some bargains. Now, we can get through this thing all right. We've got to stick together, though. We've got to have faith in each other." - from the movie "It's a Wonderful Life"
So they want to raise rates, cut off health insurance, curb international trade, lower the tax rate, limit immigration and still expect growth to take off?
George H. W. Bush is witnessing what he once termed voodoo economics happening right before his eyes.
2
Anyone who has read history know that generals are slow to recognize their mistakes. They also know you do not get stars on your uniform by brilliance or questioning conventional wisdom. Wars are won not by generalship, but by money and manpower used with abandoment.
There is nothing that President Trump is doing and saying now that candidate Trump did not do and say. Therefore, Trump infallibility started long before he was elected president; and you cannot cure an old flaw with new thinking.
Another perspective for understanding Kelly's untruths: lying up and down your chain of command In response to micromanagement and unrealistic requirements imposed from above is so common it the US military that it can be considered a career path.
See for example this discussion in a publication by The Army's own War College of how the situation where "an officer’s signature and word have become tools to maneuver through the Army bureaucracy rather than being symbols of integrity and honesty" has created has created a culture of "rampant duplicity".
https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pdffiles/pub1250.pdf
On this view, as Kelly reacts to the impossible requirements of his new superior, he may be importing an institutional propensity for lying from his military background as much or more than he is accepting the one that already existed in the civilian White House.
IMO, this possibility ought to be very disturbing to these who hope the additional of Kelly and other advisors with military backgrounds to Presidential staff will stabilize process and policy in the Oval Office.
Some people cannot separate science from religion. For them the earth must be 6000 years old and Darwin was a heretic. As long as these folks were not our nation's scientists or science teachers, I wan't losing too much sleep. But now science has taken a back seat to dogma. In economics in particular, certain theories have become faith-based propositions that no amount of empirical observations to the contrary can shake. As long as Republicans were not in the White House, I wasn't losing too much sleep. But now ...
1
I have always thought that the willingness to apologize for mistakes is actually reflection on the strong and just character. I guess there is a different standard among crooks.
The unhinged accusations of former President Barack Obama for apologizing everywhere has a clear explanation now. It was coming from wicked and crooked characters where apology was a sign of weakness.
Taylor is an ideologue first who would have made a better communist that market economist.
I await Her Professor Doktor Doktor Krugman admit it was a mistake to join the Hillary crew attack on Sanders when Hillary and the crew got scared.
First, it was bad politics, any competent politician would have co,opted Sanders and what is the theme here? Ah, yes, learned fro Sanders success.
Second, the attacks in Sanders were consistently dishonest.
Third, Sanders supporters, whose primary trait is youth as under thirty five, not gender not race, should never ever ever been consistently and nastily misrepresented.
Krugman will never admit these errors though the results are in and the data clear. Kinda like Taylor that way.
Thank you Nobel Laureate Krugman for lending your voice to the outcry over what’s happening to our country. Please keep ringing the alarm bells before it’s too late.
No debate that Taylor is off the wall. Anyone who knows anything about economics even at a relatively lay level knows that he's widely regarded as a crank in the financial industry and probably by his peer group in the economics profession but they have their own trade union. This all makes it rather unlikely Taylor will be nominated for the position. If Trump has an iota of common sense (admittedly open to question so let's say survival instinct) he'll opt for a policy of steady as she goes and re-appoint Yellen. It won't produce a ripple in the markets and that's what he needs to be concerned about because any serious disruption in that area produced by some clown at the Fed would drive his administration and the Republican party onto the rocks.
17
Can't find inflation in the CPI? Maybe you should look somewhere else, like the S&P!
5
The stock market is not the economy.
The doctrine of infallibility courses throughout American politics and economics, and is not limited to liberal or conservative ideology. Both the Democrats and Republicans have failed to learn from their mistakes. The only difference is that the GOP is less likely to suffer for their sins because their voter base is more dedicated to the social and moral identity/ideology of the party.
I watched the debate for the NJ candidates for governor. The democratic candidate, Murphy, had some good ideas, and seemed firm on many of his positions. But most responses from Lt. Gov Guadagno came back to "Murphy wants to raise your taxes" and "how are we going to pay for this." The only clearly articulated position I gleaned from Guadagno was that tax cuts were the answer to everything. And how many times in our history has that been proven false? Not enough obviously.
15
Astute analysis, Dr. K. But unless I'm missing something, there's no way Trump will pick Taylor or his ilk. Someone will presumably assert to Trump that such an appointee will hinder economic growth by raising rates, and thus hinder Trump's political standing even with his base. And that's something Trump won't tolerate.
4
Well, Trump has his own criteria for appointees. One is that they be unwaveringly unsuitable for their appointment. Mr Taylor may be unsuitable as Paul suggests, but Mr Taylor is over-qualified, even with his apparent character flaws. Character is not a characteristic Trump understands, nevermind employs.
12
One would like to imagine that economists and other highly trained professionals operate based on facts and long experience first and everything else second. Not so. This is a source of peril for the rest of us.
I am convinced, based on having interviewed economists, read some of their works, and having had a friend or two in the field, that economists work like Supreme Court justices: they have a worldview that they would like to see confirmed and they shape information to confirm that view. They live hoping to push the exterior world in the direction they believe it should go.
Conservative economists seem to think that the American public missed out on necessary punishment by having the Great Recession not fall into a depression. This idea proceeds from a notion of punishment: we needed to get hammered with our mistakes, not merely knocked silly. This is, at base, a political position.
When bad times wash ashore, the "little people" become confused and disoriented and they look upward to those in power for answers. Then, the powerful get a chance to provide them, fulfilling themselves by commanding the future direction.
Economists stick with their incorrect worldview because if they were to change, they would have to reexamine the entire philosophical basis of their beliefs. Having attained a Ph.D. starting from personal prejudices, that's too much work. They's also have to give up the idea that a cycle of reward and punishment is the necessary way of the world.
13
There might be lessons to be learned: https://www.ted.com/talks/kathryn_schulz_on_being_wrong . Trump and his most ardent supporters are going to deny this approach, related to Schulz's book, "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error."
As noted in a 2010 book review, Ms. Schulz's approach may be too optimistic: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/books/11book.html . Our congressional representatives would shun this approach in most circumstances, fearing it showed weakness.
The guy in the White House is an extreme example of the problem, and would deny it is a problem at all. And he is not alone in denying the value of apology: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/10/21/donald-tru... .
It is possible that other people who do not apologize would not share Trump's narcissism, mendacity, and penchant for overt verbal combat at every turn. So there are plenty of other reasons he should not be in the White House.
From a rational standpoint, the arguments presented by professor Krugman in this piece are correct.
However, the litmus test for Trump is the economy's performance. IF wage growth rate and tax cut lift the standard of living of the middle class, all the lies and false arguments of Trump/GOP will be forgotten.
6
"lies and false arguments of Trump/GOP will be forgotten"
I rather doubt that, Uzi.
From his earliest days in the fake wrestling world to his ride down the escalator to announce his candidacy for presidency this cretin has been chronicled in every form known in today's world.
Books, movies and professional publications will be analyzing #45, and the path that led to his success in seducing America, for years to come.
Our youngest generation growing up today will remember him their entire lives.
The Pope isn't, really, infallible either, there are just millions of people who act like he is. Many of Trump's followers have a religious background, and the ironies just start there. Every previous belief about the protocol, the dignity of the office, the importance of sober, moral reflection, on things domestic and foreign, the meaning of the words patriotism and honor have all been pushed aside by this pushy personality but he does so at the bidding of these true believers. Faith overtaking facts, statistics taking a backseat to feelings, truths ignored because they're inconvenient and a deep hatred, judging by the people they stand with. You're expecting to much from them Paul. We should work on making them sane again and then we can talk economics.
7
When the man making the decision poses that character flaw on steroids their is no hope of an informed decision. The best that can be said is that Trump is merely incompetent but since he has surrounded himself with others of varying degrees of incompetence and deranged thinking processes the damage he can inflict on America and the world is truly scary.
3
Bernanke’s understanding of the Fed’s errors during the Great Depression, coupled with the willingness of former ideologues like Bush and Paulson to act on those lessons, certainly saved us from a much larger calamity. But today all we have are rigid ideologues who believe tax cuts pay for themselves and defaulting on debt is an acceptable way to starve the beast. Heaven help us when we need practical solutions to the next great financial bust, but find nobody willing or able to execute policies based on good ‘ol lessons learned.
2
But in order to avoid such a calamity, they had to pay other costs. Once capital is as grossly misallocated as it was, it is very difficult to recover.
The policies in the 2011-2016 period seem to have made things worse. Low interest rates combined with overregulation caused the stock market to boom, but did little for the average worker.
1
Men and their insecure egos, our greatest failing. We'll, we had a chance to elect an incredibly well-qualified woman and messed that up; even white women went for Trump, afraid immigrants were the problem instead of the actual problem, that we've favored capital over labor too much for too long.
I'm looking forward to the next generation of Democratic women to step forward, like Senators Gillibrand and Warren.
8
Please add Sally Yates to that short list!
Team Trump is selling tax cuts to the little people by repeatedly stating that these corporate/business tax cuts will be used, in full, for wage increases of "$4,000 to $9,000" for each worker. Huckabee-Sanders has even proposed playing a game: send us tweets about what you'll do with all that money, she asked the American public.
Okay, let's put it to the test: everybody find a trump supporter, encourage them (dare them) to ask their employer to put it in writing that once the employer gets their tax cut the employee will immediately get the raise that Trump promised them. Perhaps if enough of trump's base are told "no, we will not provide such a letter"....it might sink in!
I see promise in this approach for coming elections...smart (if I do say so myself) Democratic messaging coupled with disappointing personal experiences by the not-so-rich segment of trump/republican's base.
Smart, potentially effective, or not?? God knows, the Democrats need all the help they can get when it comes to messaging.
3
This is the price Americans pay for being uninvolved and poorly informed.
This administration is counting on that to continue the looting of the country that has been going on, most recently, since Ronald Reagan.
These people are continuing to give tax cuts to the rich and doing away with everyone program for average Americans possible.
And they want Social Security, and if Americans don't stop them, they will get it. All of it.
Would that essentially destroy the country?
Yes.
But they see themselves as not needing country. They will have enough money to do whatever they want.
Thes people don't care.
They just want the cash.
8
Let's hope Trump keeps Janet Yellen as chairman of the FED. If not he may choose a candidate who will raise interest rates leading to a depression. The that has damaged the economy before and it can easily do it again.
1
The failure of some people being unable to learn from their mistakes, is like Rumsfeld and Cheney zealously leading us to wage war in Iraq. They wanted to prove their failed policy in Vietnam of using small, mobile, strike force squads is actually a winning strategy. And, like Vietnam, they thought about victory, even when fighting for countries without stable governments.
1
Although I have become an addict to reading the latest of Trump's foibles or follies, I wonder what would happen if nothing was reported or written about Trump for a day or a week. Would he breathe a sigh of relief or get really upset that he wasn't in the spotlight?
We also should remember that it is better to vote for an imperfect candidate than to stay away and give the election to an even more imperfect candidate.
5
I suspect Republicans want higher interest rates so that their buddies who do have extra cash in the bank will see money grow with interest, rather shrinking with inflation, even if it's low.
If somebody is consistently wrong and not admit it, I would think that is because their position is prejudiced toward self interest and not a reasoned argument. So the end point is fixed and they want to get there by any means with adaptable excuses along the way.
4
But higher interest rates would cause the stock market to pull back, lessening the nominal value of capital assets. Most rich people keep their money in stocks, not bank accounts.
Well said. But I would like to take the good Doc to task on one element. The Fed did exactly the right thing at the bottom in creating reserves. However it is what they did with the cash. Rather than offer the banks 30 cents or 40 cents on the dollar (some had no quote so one could say 30 cents was over paying) to create some liquidity, they paid full boat. In other words they bailed out the banks who caused the problem. So by all means, congratulate the Fed on their acumen. But I curse them for who they helped. And that is where the insider game destroys credibility in the system.
3
John Taylor is an ideologue. During his recent interview to become Chair of the Fed he impressed Trump. So, he must have pandered to Trump's ego.
We don't need a pandering ideologue to be Chair of the Fed. We especially don't need a Fed Chair promoting significant increases in the target federal funds rate. Bond rates have been telling us and are still telling us that the market expects inflation to remain under 2% for years. Who should we believe - a political panderer who is more of an ideologue than an economist or the combined judgement of investors who are buying treasury bonds paying less than 2% for the next 5 years?
2
Everyone makes mistakes, at least occasionally - it's actually a sign of emotional maturity. It doesn't make one less of an authority unless you shouldn't be considered an authority in the first place.
But because our society has become so polarized politically, it pays (literally and figuratively) to declare your 'facts' in support of a pre-determined narrative. To reverse course and admit an error is tantamount to capitulation. And that impacts your 'marketability' as a pundit. It violates the ideal of intellectual integrity, but that's the price we're paying for living in the land of 'alternative' facts. There is only today. Nobody cares about tomorrow or what's going to happen in the future. And that does not bode well for anyone regardless of political affiliation.
3
i hope Trump picks Taylor and he monetary policies us right into a recession. Maybe Rand Paul would like the job and he and his Dad can put us back on the gold standard. Even better.
We need an economic meltdown to change the political landscape. Our Democracy is at stake.
1
"an economic meltdown to change the political landscape."
That already happened. The fact that it happened, and that we managed to slowly pull out of it didn't stop the messaging by the Republicans that Obama was a tyrant, and the economy was in shambles. Or that enough people believed it, and voted for Mr. Pie-in-the-sky (this may have been the case regardless of whether it was Trump, or a conventional Republican).
The not so simple fact is that our economy is large and complicated (and made even larger and more complicated by the fact that it is global). There aren't simple fixes. When market forces change, trying to make the market accept what it is already rejecting (like coal, or cheaper labor overseas) usually falls flat. To change the dynamics, takes time.
But we're impatient, and it shows in our penchant for changing who's in charge almost every cycle.
On why inflation didn't happen despite the floods of money, I wouldn't be so sure yet. I remember that we also thought for a long time the trash bonds and the heavy deficit spending in south Europe woudn't be a problem, until it suddenly was.
2
Very much appreciate this commentary. The simple traits of introspection, modesty, and humility are completely absent from our current crop of rulers.
But this points to a bigger problem - the tribalism that infests the American "conservative" movement. Pragmatism and results-based course adjustments have been jettisoned in favor of "principle", dogmatic belief in themes that feel good but are empirically destructive. Nothing that comes from the Left (and now increasingly the center) will be considered valid; anything outside of the tribe's accepted worldview becomes an attack on the "safe space" of conservative identity. My guess is that this is fundamentally a response to a rapidly changing and unpredictable world.
That so many millions of Americans have joined this tribe is utterly baffling to someone who possesses the aforementioned traits, but identity is a powerful force.
Republican economists who cling to false ideas and refuted claims have one virtue over their tax cutting brethren – at least the economists are consistent! During the Obama years Republican lawmakers furiously warned of impending catastrophe if deficits were not eliminated, but now that Republicans are in control, their aversion to deficits has completely reversed. It’s almost humorous to watch the before and after videos of their pronouncements, until you realize what is coming next. Just as Republicans turned Clinton’s surpluses into the Great Recession, Republicans will find a way to derail Obama’s recovery, at which point Trump’s infallible economists will turn it into a crisis.
Interesting image of the flags in President Trump's office - two Presidential flags, with one U.S. flag between them. Isn't the U.S. flag always supposed to come first, before any other flags? Wouldn't that include coming before the Presidential flag? Trump like to talk about how others (like football players) "disrespect the flag", but he seems to be doing it himself. Perhaps the U.S. and Presidential flags ought to be swapped, two U.S. flags on the outside and one Presidential flag in the middle (no higher than the others), to show that the country itself is more important than the President.
If trump stays true to form, he will pick the person for Chair of the Fed who knows the least about finance/economic policy. There are one or two exceptions to this rule (General Mattis for example) but by and large the people that he selects are ignorant of what they should oversee. And they have "wacky" ideas if they have any.
3
Yes, Mr. Krugman, Republicans have been creating "alternate facts" and an alternate reality for a very long time. But in some respects, they're acting perfectly rationally. If an alternate reality serves you, you are likely to prefer it. The Republican reality has been very good for the wealthy and ultra-wealthy and they're very likely to go on preferring it and sponsoring politicians who prop it up. The problem all along has been to figure out how to keep on board the people for whom the alternate reality has been punitive. Enter racism, religious fundamentalism, scapegoating immigrants, attacks on mainstream media, etc., etc.
1
It is astonishing to me that some economists can make predictions, that those predictions can not come to pass, and that those economists continue to make the same predictions with the same reasoning. In my business of mathematics, this would end your academic reputation.
2
The havoc and financial destruction of middle class security, such as it is, by ruinous decisions made by an incompetent crony appointment to the Federal Reserve makes me nervous. It does not make the 1% nervous.
And it does not make Goldman Sacks nervous when they are in a position to place bets on our destruction. There is not one economy, but several economies, and the financial tools and safety nets enjoyed by billionaires are unknown to the working class. Our destruction is not their destruction, and they are calling the shots.
1
Failure to learn from past errors makes for the repeating of those error, unfortunately. If our errors only bring misfortune to ourselves, that is certainly a tragedy, but when large numbers are affected by our errors, we get chaos and catastrophe--history is replete with examples of this.
2
Trump attended the New York military school during his formative years, sent there by his father to straighten him out. He loves the military and has promised a military buildup. He also loves the police. Trump has surrounded himself with military. Prepare to lose your freedom and witness massive wars. The military has always been the supreme power that ran us behind the scenes but are now openly in control. Trump and Congressional Republicans will throw many hundreds of billions of dollars to build up the military which is in the business of war, not making peace. I anticipate that after the military buildup, the arms will be flexed and wars will ensue thus straining the American economy leading to a Depression considering the sum total of Trump actions. The next chairman will have to recognize these facts or they will fail to save the economy.
What you point out about Taylor is also true of the field of Mainstream Macro-Economics as a whole.
2008 demonstrated that there was something massively wrong with MME.
The fact that MME hasn’t changed a bit since then demonstrates that it is a pseudoscience.
The main culprit? Tenure.
Why change your views when you can’t get fired?
Academic economists have insulated themselves from the flexible labor markets they advocate for everyone else.
The field is rotten to the core.
2
There is something wrong with trump's character as well as with his integrity and his morality, his attention span and his ability to relate to others, his thinking and his ability to speak rationally, his perception of the other and his perception of himself. The list is long. There are many, many things seriously wrong with trump and yet the republicans cannot muster one ounce of decency and respect for our country and get him out of our white house. Shame on them all.
Voters, for the most part, don't read the details. So, absent an economic crisis that somehow can't be blamed on somebody else, you can recommend anything you like as far as votes go. Just sound loyal, faithful, stubborn, and self-assured.
On the other hand, the wealthy donors *do* care about the details, since they can collect serious money from the consequences. So, as long as your economic lies don't hurt *them*, they're happy, too.
I've begun to worry that the plutocrats are actually interested in pushing down the lower classes yet further. You can't win totally unless the other guy loses totally.
See, Mr Krugman, we no longer have ideas or facts. We have dogma.
Ideas can change, must change, in the face of facts. Reality happens. Facts can be argued, their meaning tested, their completeness challenged. But facts make up reality, and reality charges forward no matter what you believe.
Dogma is as immutable as reality. It too charges forward no matter what.
When we have people who look squarely at reality, at science, at facts and declare them null and void, we are dealing with dogma. And the GOP has been running on dogma for years now. Supply side economics is just an offshoot in the new religion we developed called Free Market Capitalism, which will put the umbrella of prosperity and security and joy over the deserving few. They don't have to dig deeper for meaning... dogma takes care of that.
So what went wrong with all those economists? They accepted dogma as fact.
1
There actually has been a shift introduced by Trump. As you noted in the column those claiming interest rates should be raised keep coming up with new justifications, farfetched and bizarre as they may be.
The Trump way is different. Simply insist we are in inflationary times and deny any evidence to the contrary. Published numbers by the Fed don't back that up? Fake news.
This isn't splitting hairs. Most past Republicans at least tried to link claims to the real world, Trump just insists the world is the way he says it is and his Trumpites fall in line.
1
I remember during the time Dubya's "Shock and Awe" sparked an early-and-often "It's unpatriotic to criticize a sitting POTUS during wartime."
Now, whether athletes take a knee during the National Anthem, or the calling out of a general for misrepresentation of proven facts, play that "it's unpatriotic to...."
What these flag-wavers won't acknowledge, is that in America, it's perfectly acceptable to criticize the government.
Keep this up, and Trump, and his minions will ultimately reduce "patriotism" from a love and respect for God and Country, to a punchline.
The 2010 open letter on the fed's monetary policy and the refusal of every signatory to admit that he had been wrong is worth repeating. I appreciate Krugman;s continuing policy of providing links to the original documents.
1
The question becomes. is there any way back from this Mariana's Trench of unmitigated, unapologetic dishonesty and dereliction of integrity? True there have always been those in prominence who have displayed hubris. We've seen it from those in government, to athletes, celebrities, etc. but typically that display eventually comes with a price. Some diminution of rank, credibility or status would follow, eventually. But now there appears no price, no dishonor, no disrespect. Only blind party loyalty.
While this phenomenon is not the exclusive realm of any group or affiliation it seems overwhelmingly the domain of the GOP. When did this extreme phase of this start? One could point to Reagan's 11th commandment (Never criticize a member of your party) or the hyper partisanship win at all costs ushered in by that awful Gingrich.
Watching the Burns Viet Nam series it appears it was still a time when people who were partisan still had the integrity enough to call into question the actions of their own party. In congressional hearings. On tv. When the policies weren't working they were questioned by their own. As bad as the situation became in the Middle East when did the GOP ever call the Cheney-Bush lie machine out. Just kept a the cheer leading routine up. What we're seeing now is a just a continuation of this m.o. on steroids given the Trump reality show.
Who knows. Now we're here. Is there anyway back?
Since a significant portion, if not majority, of the decision makers (i.e. voters, i.e. members of Congress) never bothers to fact check, claiming one was right often enough and on enough media outlets is all that is needed to push disastrous self-serving and greedy policies down our throats.
Cognitive thought, empirical analysis - that's all so late 20th century.
Yeah don't even talk to me about Reagan's "Laffer Curve"; it was only a Laffer because it was a laugher, a huge joke on the American people. Following on wrong inferences it what it represented, it ruined the economy on the laugher of a premise; it premised that reduced taxes for the wealthy would increase revenue for the government. It is a laugher of a rationale, and a laugher in its extremely negative effects on the economy, it decreased rather than increased revenue for the government (an obviously predictable outcome) - it was so wrong it was a laugher.
One explanation of the existential paradox about the unmoved mover is that it's turtles all the way down. In the case of Trump, his cabinet, forget turtles, it's riding on back of the Dunning-Kruger Effect into infinite regression.
Like attracts like. Trump's cabinet and Advisers were in many cases not chosen for their expertise or judgement- but for their loyalty, prejudices, doctrines (based on truth or not) and desire for power. Mediocrity is in a sense desirable because, by degrees, it makes the Sun (Trump), look better in relation to the satellites. The Satellites in turn have their own minions, perpetuating the incompetence that starts from the top.
1
Can you share some examples where liberal politicians and gov't employees made mistakes and then publicly acknowledged them? Without examples like that, your claims could come across as pure partisanship, while the underlying problem could be with politicians in general, rather than specifically Republicans.
(I admire your willingness to admit your mistakes, but the stakes are lower since you aren't an academic and pundit trying for election or appointment.)
1
I have read this column in various forms many times. I am glad you continue to write it, however. I keep hoping that these ideology-bound economists will read it and think to themselves that what you're saying make sense because it comports with the facts. However, I'm afraid that's wishful thinking.
But we shouldn't be surprised given the Republican perspective on global climate change, health care, renewable energy, gun control, labor unions, protection of the environment, immigration, and every other area in which the government operates.
Their policies are nearly always wrong and make things worse rather than better. There is no reason to believe that Trump and his minions' attitude on monetary policy and who should lead the Fed would be any different. They have no interest in the reality-based world, and we will be paying the price for their actions long into the future.
182
When you consider the trajectory of the Republican Party in recent decades - Nixon to Reagan to Gingrich to George W. Bush to Sarah Palin, to name a few - Trump fits that trajectory quite well. Trump and his party represent the triumph of aggressiveness over fairness and compromise, lies and deception over truth and reality, ideological rigidity over reason and intellectual rigor, scorched earth partisanship and the exercise of raw power over democratic norms. That trajectory is not a straight line, but you can trace it as the elements have fallen into place over the years.
And the truly frightening reality is that the worst may be yet to come. Demagogues with anti-democratic or authoritarian aspirations, and the parties that support them, are either stopped by a sufficient opposing force or they continue apace.
248
You left out Dennis Hastert(former Speaker of the House and child abuser), the namesake of the Hastert rule which made the House majority the only party that can propose legislation and Mitch McConnell who's own stated goal of making the opposite party's president a one term failed presidency and who ignored the opposite party's President's nomination for Supreme Court Justice. They are the ultimate and toxic examples of the dangers of partisan politics. Despicable, Deplorable, Undemocratic, Small minded Traitors.
2
... to Sarah Palin to Trump to Kid Rock to who knows what. Talk about a clown car.
Whoa don't ruin Nixon's good name by putting him in with those others.
It is a consistent characteristic of Trump the Infallible to deflect criticism with personal attacks on the critic. This serves the dual purpose of avoiding the immediate issue and discouraging future critics.
Most past presidential administrations are studied, analyzed, and written about by historians, economists, political scientists, and so on. The Trump Administration will likely get more attention from students of abnormal psychiatry. Trumpism, the Trump Syndrome, or some variation thereof will be added to the canon of psychiatry and used to describe a particular combination of narcissism and megalomania. One wonders if a similar term will be coined to describe those who are drawn to blindly follow those who posses the Trump Syndrome.
As to those of us hoping to just survive, we've been Trumped.
131
The real issue is that Trump supporters also refuse to recognize the problem.
2
@ Tom - Obama's and Clinton's supporters refused to identify the problems created by their "leaders" too.
2
There’s also a doctrine of liberal infallibility. "We know the truth," Krugman wrote in his blog shortly after the election. From dogcatcher to president, that truth has a funny way of showing itself, electorally. The right—soon to be entirely a Trumpian right—controls all the levers of power in this country. Despite the abysmal favorability rating of our so-called President Trump, its a good bet that power will grow even further in the 2018 midterms, as the liberals once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Krugman and his followers on the left never admit error, electorally, never learn from their mistakes. To this day, when he discusses Trump voters, PK always, finally gets back to his core belief: they are racists, and their core concerns are racially inspired. That's what he and his liberal followers want to believe because it gets them off the hook for any complicity in the tragedy that has befallen our country.
What is the truth? In column after column in this paper, Thomas B. Edsall and Eduardo Porter, among others, have offered profound insights into the complex motivation of Trump voters. I'll bet no more than one-in-ten of Krugman’s readers has ever bother to read them. Why? Because they challenge the liberal narrative, that Trump voters are 1) racists, who hate immigrants and people of color, and 2) stupid, because they vote against their own interests.
Looking at today's electoral landscape, one must ask, who are the bigots, and who are stupid?
10
Correct, as long as you're looking in the mirror. It's all too pat, too comfortable and standard for the course in American political debate. I believe (I hope) that to challenge the standard media narrative once we look away from our own fascinating image takes us honestly into the realm of our systemic and structural racism. Trump's mischievousness offers this. He's branded unfit. I agree. I think we're all unfit to a large extent. No longer do we have the smug liberal policies. Nor do we have the conservative ones it was so pleasurable to push back against. What do we have? What are we? As Krugman writes, "And men with that character flaw should never be placed in positions of policy responsibility." Men with huge character flaws are all around us. What to do?
I read and admire the insights of both Krugman and Edsall. They both point out in their own ways the hypocrisy of the right. Like the debate over deficits in the new budget where suddenly the right believes that adding 1.5 trillion to the federal debt is not a problem while having spend 8 years with the constant drumbeat that deficits were going to be the ruin of the country and blaming Obama for pushing us over the edge. The more you look into it the more you realize we are a nation of many uninformed, irrational, ignorant and sometimes downright stupid people. Krugman and Edsall point out that this problem exists at all levels of our society.
I guess how you judge Trump supporters depends upon where you live.
In the Bible belt, the overwhelming majority of Trump supporters are racists and they quickly come to heel when the GOP dog whistle is blown.
Stereotyping is always dangerous, but there is usually a basis of fact or bigotry underlying all stereotypes
Increasing interest rates took the irrational exuberance out of the stock and mortgage markets in 2007. It might do the same again. Can't wait.
2
''Can't wait.''
As it also took the wealth of millions and millions ''average Americans''.
I can... ''wait''!
-(and hope that in the meantime US economists come up with solutions to help average Americans to survive the next ''correction'' just the way the most wealthy Americans did!)
5
@pieceofcake - If you are holding a portfolio of grossly overpriced stocks, are you really 'wealthy'? Could everyone who holds stock sell and get these prices?
1
That's easy – average Americans should NOT play near Wall Street. It's a game rigged for the pros.
1
Power and greed share a common place and purpose in Trump's world; main reasons to rewrite the cultural narratives.
(To attack women and women in politics and media, to flag wrap racism, to demand a historic exception for white supremacisy; and to restrict civil liberties (destroying consumer protections as greater choice, denying legal abortion; new limits on immigration and travel, new demands for obedience (by race) to unjust authority (flagged-wrapped racism); the dishonor of statements by a four-star General to a Gold Star family; his smears, lies, and cover-up.)))
Greed is turning the world's largest public treasury into a slices of entitlements. Bunce-driven (a windfall), the GOP tax reform is the largest monetary gift in the world to the wealthy, maybe in history!
26
No Federal Income Tax cuts for incomes over $200,000. All tax cuts should go to the Middle Class and Working Class. Keep the Estate Tax and add a Financial Transaction Tax to pay for them.
Let’s not repeat the Kansas-Tax disaster.
84
How about no tax cuts. How about funding the State Department, the EPA, the promised infrastructure rebuilding, health care, and schools.
And the coming Arizona-tax disaster.
Idealogues are never wrong: the world just refuses to listen to them. Eventually, they become Speaker of the House.
59
@Don. One thing we can say about Trump is that he is not and has never been and ideologue. In fact, I dare say he has ever met an ideology that he hasn't stared down and then twisted and exploited for his own narcissistic, demagogic, self-dealing and self-aggrandizing purposes.
1
The reason to raise interest rates is that people who retired on the basis of investments (like small business owners, people who do not have pensions, which is the vast majority of Americans) are eating into the principle because they are not seeing a return on their money. Or small savers with passbook bank accounts are actually losing money on saving money because bank fees have increased so much that they have to pay all kinds of fees on services. These fees are not paid by more wealthy people who can put aside amounts large enough to reach the outrageously high minimums set by the banks. Because the cost of purchasing checks on an ordinary checking account has gone stratospheric: $65 for a set of checks (and the quantity of checks in a shipment has been reduced at the same time). The low interest rates and high banking fees are discouraging the little people from saving and these are the people who need most to save. It has been a decade - they need relief.
18
I'm sympathetic to this argument, but raising interest rates to create savings income doesn't strike me as a defensible economic tactic. I would like to hear a professional economist's proposal of how to stimulate the economy in economic downturns without hurting small savers and retirees in the short term.
1
It is not difficult to get a 4% dividend return on a conservative stock portfolio, and until the past five years a return of 5% was easily reachable. I don't advise you to buy stocks now, but those who bought in the 2009-2012 period are doing rather nicely.
I suggest you order your checks from checks.com, $4.95 a box.
2
Ask the GOP hat you should do.
Thank you Dr. Krugman. I am a scientist, and while I always get some satisfaction from seeing an experimental result predicted by my theories, these confirmatory results don't teach us much new. What gets me excited is an unexpected result, implying that the theory needs to be refined in order to become more generalizable.
In short, when comparing theory to reality, we only learn when we are wrong, but only if we can acknowledge this basic truth. Economics is no different.
72
Absolutely wrong in terms of the roles of confirmation and disconfirmation. Disconfirmation counts for more, as Krugman suggests. Taylor and his ilk have been consistently wrong. And cutting taxes to raise revenue has been tried and failed too. But your view of the philosophy of science is incomplete. A theory is never simply tested against data; results are assessed in light of alternative theories. And unexpected result is only meaningful in light of an alternative theory, otherwise it is just noise in the experiment. Taylor apparently has no interest in rethinking his theory, which makes what he is doing ad hoc and apologetic. As Sir Karl Popper wrote, strong expectation may be unfortunate in science but commitment is downright criminal.
"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not Eureka! (I found it!) but rather, 'That's funny...'"
- Isaac Asimov
I think I can negate the theories of impending rises in inflation in America. The dynamics of Globalization are keeping inflation low.
For decades, American business and wealth has been slowly exiting America following the river of cost cutting like water. Business leaders claim they must export business to remain competitive and as a result the overall costs of goods has gradually decreased from highs when almost all products were made in America to present in which most products are made in other lands at lower cost. The net change of the flow of business is that the high prices in the past have gradually given way to cheaper goods in an even decline in which lowering costs and increased consumer demand have resulted in a concurrent gradual increase in inflation that will continue under control and very gradually as long as Globalization is the norm and the exodus of business continues.
So what will happen if business exits are inhibited and American business returns? Inflation. But until then for the foreseeable future barring any radical change in this dynamic, inflation will remain low and manageable.
One caveat however is that if Globalization results in equalization among nations, then there will be upward pressure on prices and inflation will rise.
I was always strongly opposed to Globalization after seeing the suffering of our middle class and the loss of American wealth, but now I fear if we become protectionist it will harm the economy and the middle class.
7
''but now I fear if we become protectionist it will harm the economy and the middle class.''
It would be (again) the wrong response - as in your analysis you forgot the outrageous inflation in what costs Americans the most: Housing - Education - Healthcare. So we get the ''cheap consumer stuff'' even cheaper - but in exchange - what used to take about the third of the income of an American family - their shelter - is now often up to half or even more of the average Americans income.
And the trick that economists don't call such raised prices for the roof over your head ''inflation'' is just that most of them have a completely different perspective than average Americans about what ''inflation'' really means.
15
- and not to confuse - Trumpish (successful?) efforts to blame ''Trade'' for the loss of our workers jobs and in consequence telling the people that we just have to isolate US from the worlds economy will end just like the efforts of the crazy Brexiters or nationalistic Catalonians -
It won't work - as ''Trade'' actually ''produces'' a lot of well paying jobs if the Corporations of a country decide to produce most of the stuff ''the people'' are consuming - AGAIN - at home.
So, is your theory in alignment with Mr. Taylor’s thinking?
Remember GHWB's famous line "Read my lips" in the context of his promise never to raise taxes. But then, he did raise taxes because the situation called for it. And he paid the price of losing the next election.
Now, whether you are or are not a fan of GHWB or the GOP, you have to credit the man for doing what was required to be done. As we move forward in time, situations change and our actions need to fit the situation. Never admitting a mistake and continuing to dig deeper shows a lack of learning at the very least and a lack of humility as well.
46
I would say you have summed up the current situation very well. No republican congress person evidently will be willing to take a public stand against tax cuts for fear of losing a perk-filled job.
was it because GHWB raised taxes that he lost? i've heard that said so often, with such certainty. please correct me someone if i am wrong, but was there not also a 3rd party candidate called Ross Perot who divvied up the Republican votes, giving the election to Bill Clinton? as also happened ironically, 8 years later, when a 3rd party Ralph Nader, divvied up the Democrat votes and the Supreme Court gave the 'hanging chad' election to his GHWB's son George Bush? with age, my history tends to blur ...
From a distance what the FED did in 2008 was straight out of classic credit and banking theory: when credit and banking crises enveloped the economy, lend whatever amount is needed to stabilize the economy and banking system, and over time as the system stabilizes, withdraw that support. The FED did this with both interest rates and increasing the size of its loans, without causing a discernible increase in those economic components that measure inflation, in part, I believe, because the damage done to the economy was so deep, so pervasive, and so prolonged until it could begin the process of repairing.
However, if the FED doesn't improve its balance sheet, which could happen if it made overnight and discount window borrowing more expensive thereby sending a signal to the economy, it will not be in a position to address the next financial crisis. There clearly are inflationary bubbles building in real estate prices, some commodities, and stocks that will have to be corrected. If any correction spreads to the economy, what governmental intervention in the way of FED easing on rates or credit availability, or Congress enacting stimulative measures, should we expect? We can't count on Congress because the GOP does not believe in intervention or stimulus. Can we count on the FED? Not necessarily. As far as I can tell, its balance sheet requires a significant and continuous period of time to get some of those assets off the books so it can help as a crisis unfolds.
12
''There clearly are inflationary bubbles building in real estate prices, some commodities, and stocks that will have to be corrected.''
- how politely stated for our speculators and gamblers who have furthered inequality to such new heights that an average American now really can't afford to live in his homeland anymore...
24
- and as there was hell (aka ''Trump'') to pay for ignoring the depression of US workers - there will be hell to pay for ''our Casino'' again - and it will be really ''sad'' that there average will have to pay AGAIN for the speculators and gamblers.
Like how are the gamblers at Merril Lynch now warning some of their ''best'' customers: ''The correction is coming big time'' -
BUT afterwards we hopefully FINALLY will have learned - to stimulate our economy by creating well paying jobs and NOT with some monetary tricks which just further inequality!
Or
13
It's not only speculators and gamblers who contribute to the creation of bubbles. For example, most of the money that create the appealing price signals in stocks come from pension funds, mutual funds, and institutions, the home of the non-gambling speculator. Most of the money traded in wheat and grains, for example, come from farmers who, in part, hope to protect the value of future crops. It is too facile, I believe, to blame all bubbles on gamblers--one could say that any person making an investment is a gambler. With respect, a bubble is a complicated phenomenon, and its formation even more mysterious.
In a few years the flooding of the world with easy money for years will be recognized (also) by most US liberals and progressives as the worst economical mistake - and not because of the non-existence of consumer inflation but the devastating inflation in assets - especially in making rents and housing in our country un-payable!
7
- that doesn't excuse the existence of the f... moron and his doctrine of stupidity at all...
22
What's your alternative? Raise interest rates and make the economy grind to a halt? Banks are lending, businesses are making money. I agree that income inequality is a very real danger both to our economy, our politics, and our way of life, but making a mistake in economic policy will not help us with that. It's clear we have a problem but let's focus on the right solution to the right problem.
''Let's focus on the right solution to the right problem.''
Right - and so the alternative is ''policies'' which create Jobs with Living Wages - and if we need so called ''easy money'' for it - we always have to make sure that the dough isn't used for speculation and bankrupting ''the people'' instead.
BE-cause there is NO sense in Banks are lending and businesses are making money - if the Businesses, Banks and Lenders give a little (easy money) - with one hand - but then take a much bigger chunk away - with the other hand...
I was as impressed by Paul’s experimentation with humor as he was. He should tell more jokes, although one doesn’t normally expect elevated levels of jocularity from professional economists.
As with most things, there probably are two sides to the Kelly-Wilson story. The lead that the ideologically interested keep burying is that Kelly was defending Trump, and we can’t have that, of course, because Kelly has independent credibility. If he has the temerity to defend Trump, then he must be prepared to have his credibility assaulted by those same ideologically interested who support Tom Steyer in his vastly entertaining exhortations to impeach Trump employing a solidly Republican House. It’s amazing sometimes the lengths to which the jaded rich must go to entertain themselves.
But the era of presidential (not Trumpal, or specifically Republican) infallibility has been with us for a very long time. For example, the only time I remember Obama apologizing for making a booboo was when he mea culpa’d that lie that earned him PolitiFact’s “Lie of the Year” – “If you like the plan you have, you can keep it, and if you like the doctor you have, you can keep your doctor, too.” Normally, presidents never admit error, whether it’s Vietnam or Benghazi.
7
One gets the impression that Paul is a bit irked that other economists are being considered for the Fed Chairman’s chair and not him. Seems a mite unreasonable to me. Like Carter irked that he didn’t get a Nobel years ago when he was shilling for Bill Clinton. Carter eventually got a lifetime Nobel Peace Prize in 2002, when the Nobel Committee wanted to weigh in ponderously on their disapproval of Dubya – kinda like Obama getting his for the same reason. Given the odor in which the Nobelistas held Dubya, one can only wonder how they’ll react to Trump. Probably give Congresswoman Wilson one.
Imagine my surprise that Paul disrespects academic economists who disagree with Paul. But he should consider that Democrats ought to elect a president SOMETIME before he goes toes-up in the final dirt-nap we must all face, and that he’ll get his Fed chance then. The incisors might be a bit long by then, but, hey … better late than never.
5
W destroyed Iraq. B inherited the nightmare and made a somewhat similar error in Libya.
Iraq's debacle spread into Syria with the immigration of many Iraq citizens fleeing the death squads.
The 'De-Baathification" of the Iraq military led to the rise of Daish.
B never had to apologize for his misstatement as there is nothing to apologize for.
There is no comparison with the lies of Trump and his lackeys and Obama.
50
"As with most things, there probably are two sides to the Kelly-Wilson story."
Except there isn't. In this case, we have a tape that shows Kelly to either be lying or not remembering correctly. Either way, the standards of decency demand an apology. He has used his position to defame someone. There is no ambiguity here. There is a tape that backs up Wilson's story completely.
His credibility is being assaulted because he did something that damages his credibility. Really, this isn't very complicated.
49
It is funny that I consistently agree with Paul Krugman expect occasionally in economics, which of course is his forte. While lower interest rates were probably well advised during the initial stages of the Great Recession the continued use of Quantitative Easing (QE) has led to inflation in equity values where most likely a sharp correction may cause some loss of faith in the economy. A much better economic policy would have relied more on fiscal stimulus (opposed by Republicans because of deficits, ha). Paul is also smart enough to know that the monetary stimulus isn’t causing CPI or PCE inflation because the monetary stimulus doesn’t work its way down to the lower 60-80 percentile wage earners which haven’t seen an increase in real wages for a couple of decades. But the monetary stimulus has affected the price of what the upper 20 percentile buys, which is stocks (and to a lesser extent high end housing). Stocks are at a tremendous peak. I am not defending Taylor, of whom I know little, but I am saying that the “easy money” QE will have some nasty negative consequences because it has been in place too long.
17
Another sad truth in this tale is that what should have happened didn't, and that is borrowing by the public to fund infrastructure projects. In the future we will look back and lament not fixing all the bridges, upgrading ports, investing heavily in public transit (yes, including high speed rail), water and waste water systems, potholes, parks and the rest with that easy money. Instead we gave it to the rich and give the Milwaukee Bucks a new arena.
13
It does sound like you are defending Taylor. Now we see why he may be a popular pick for the fed; he tells a simplistic story that some people can believe.
If economists wanted economics to be more of a science, they would take their persistent basic disagreements as evidence of a desperate need for some way to resolve them. Theory building does not seem to solve basic disagreements, because effective ways to decide between theories are not available. Past history does not seem to help, either, because the world is so complex that alternate explanations for events can always be found.
If economists wanted economics to be more scientific, they would join together to look for some way to build economic wind tunnels in which competing theories and models could be tested, and tests repeated holding some conditions constant and varying others. It might be expensive to build such tunnels and run tests in them, but if these tests gave insight into which sets of policies would best grow the economy or increase tax revenue, these insights could save us enough money to pay for the tests many times over. The internet and virtual reality make such wind tunnels possible without involving actual economies and the lives of the people in those economies, perhaps for the first time in human history.
Economists are not joining together to design such wind tunnels and demand their funding because most of them are not interested in making economics more scientific. This is because most of them get paid by people and institutions with no interest in promoting science that harms their interests.
6
Economics is a humanity with a quantitative component. The American fetish with quantification has distorted it over the past century by jettisoning much of the humanity side, which is dismissed as "political economy" when it needs to be a main part of economics. Krugman likes the quantitative side but he knows it is good to work with simple models. Many quantitative economists are really doing low-quality mathematics in an effort to copy the techniques and prestige of physics. The irrelevance of physics-math is not a concern of theirs. There are other kinds of math that are more relevant; they were created by people outside the mainstream or outside economics (game theory, input-output analysis, discrete optimization, network theory).
27
The problem has been conceptual even though Smith and Ricardo drew very important conclusions from the start. This path was abandoned by the marginalist and distorted by neoclassical guys. People like Taylor have been apologists and there are many in the field. Models with the wrong concepts don’t go too far. Thus, the miserable failure to predict the 2008 crash. But these people play a role. That is the ideological one.
6
David,
Economic theories can be proven up to a point by economic data over time. The economy is so complicated, that I don't think a wind tunnel approach can work. Economist do have spreadsheet models that they can and do use. Mr. Taylor created a theory around inflation and low interest rates. He was insisting his theory was correct and would be proven by the data over time. He seems to be in error around his theory. Krugman is asking if an economist who cannot revise their views given the evidence, should be trusted to make the economic calls we need to make. I do not want yet another Alternate Fact leader in the Donald J Chaos & Co. administration.
5
As R. Law already noted, "never admit error, never apologize" has been a main page of the Republican playbook since the Reagan administration.
48
This can't be stated often enough. The way Republican politicians continue to try to impose their warped ideological beliefs upon the voters has become so obvious that it's hard to believe so many people still fall for their repetitions. They're still claiming that rewarding the wealthy will enrich the rest of us, but when they push through their high-end tax cuts and the deficit zooms, they'll claim that they need to slash the safety net. They're already talking about cutting Medicare and Medicaid, as well as killing the deduction for state and local taxes, and they haven't even put together a real tax "reform" structure yet, as far as I know. Meanwhile, they're spending millions on prototypes for the Wall. It seems that Trump has brought out the worst in the Republican party, but if we're lucky, they'll fight each other to exhaustion and empower some Democrats.
51
I dig the econ, but as a world-class MBA I confess that I don't completely understand it. I can't imagine that many persons in Congress do either,
Let's not forget all of this is happening in the shadow of devastating hurricanes and wildfires all of which are going to be years in the recovery and billions and billions of dollars.
This iteration of the GOP would probably have allied itself with the Axis back in 1942. Do we need this, and the phony tax cuts ("trickle-down," where most of us are in the same position as the painted fly in the urinal).
What we REALLY need is a return to the Internal Revenue Code of 1942, which financed World War II and peacetime rebuilding.
Mr. Krugman is wrong that the Fed policy of zero percent interest rate and quantitative easing has not created inflation. It has perhaps not created inflation as defined by the Fed, but it has certainly created inflation if one cares to look for it. It has created inflation in many asset classes. One can easily see this in real estate markets around the world, in bond markets, in stock markets, in collectible markets. The reason why is has not created inflation as measured by the government is because the money thus created ended up mostly in the bank accounts of the rich. While money given to the rest of us would end up in supermarkets, department stores etc, thus fuelling consumer inflation, money going to the rich ends up in stock markets, bond markets, second (third, fourth, fifth....) homes, private jets, super-yachts etc. Wages have been stagnant since 2007, but the assets of the top 1% of household have grown exponentially. Does it matter ? One can argue the situation we are seeing (Trump becoming president, extremism on both ends of the political spectrum) is a direct result of this policy. And we have yet to see the enormously inflated financial and real estate markets around the world unwind.
34
Both sides? Maybe now that classic FDR liberalism is called extremist, if you believe that twisted evaluation.
13
An increase in asset prices is not a bug, it is a feature. Lowering interest rates is intended to have that effect in order to encourage investment.
6
Yes, but over investment was what got the economy into a tailspin in the first place, so I don't think a FED policy that aimed to encourage bubble investing is a cure, although it might re-inflate the bubble for a time. And the investment it encouraged was largely unproductive.
2
A Nobel prize is awarded every year to an economist who made the most important contribution to Economics, considered a social science. As a lay person, but as a person with a doctorate in a "real' science (Pharmacology), I am appalled at the the inaccuracy of theoretical Economic Professors who make pompous predictions about the economy, only to see them fail, but without admitting their failure, and without offering any regrets, retractions, and apologies.
Paul Krugman, a Nobelist himself, and engaged in regularly informing people like me and the general public, needs to be thanked for making much more reasonable predictions and for fearlessly criticizing the habitually blundering anti-economic Professors, and the GOP.
137
Krugman has a well deserved Nobel. (Not all Economic Nobels are well deserved, although this year's decision was very sound.) Taylor does not.
And for being right, frequently prescient, about so many important things, much more often than not. And today, for reminding us of the importance of admitting mistakes and errors as a fundamental mark of character.
"Again, everyone makes forecast errors. If you’re consistently wrong, that should certainly count against your credibility; track records matter. But it’s much worse if you can never bring yourself to admit past errors and learn from them."
One by one Trump's campaign brags are proving false (no surprise there) but that hasn't stopped him from still making the same outlandish claims that he has the best of everything: the most accomplishments, the most generals, the biggest crowds, the most amazing negotiation skills, the biggest brain, the smartest strategies, the best policy ideas.
In fact, the country is doing so great, that he should just hole up in Mar a Lago for the next few years and the country would just run itself because of his one-man strength.
The man who never admits mistakes will pick your pockets, declare war, get in bed with Russian mafiosi, and tank the economy.
Because having never been accountable for anything, why should he admit errors? If you look at his balance sheet, he hasn't made any--he gets credit for financial promises he doesn't keep, and trashes the economic well being of his base who reward him with complete and undying loyalty.
Nice work if you can get it--and he sure has.
116
Our greatest presidents were humble men. Lincoln is the obvious one here, but so was Washington- who declined a third term- as well as Eisenhower (who keeps looking better), Madison, and Truman. Roosevelt wasn't exactly a common man, but he loved the people.
Trump wants to con the dispossessed among us, as long as they are white. He has not changed his approach because it's worked so far, and he's too old- and dumb- to change. Jackson, whose portrait now hangs behind the desk in the Oval Office, was probably the most similar to Trump, but Jackson was a fraud himself: a slaveholder and murderer of Indians, who also feigned interest in the common man but accumulated wealth himself in any way he could think of.
Let's see what happens when the many laws our President has broken go through our judicial system. If the Far Right judges, including on the Supreme Court, manage to keep him in office, we will know that we no longer live in a democracy.
70
I think you have a point, but Teddy Roosevelt had no humility. That probably helped him get national parks and the Sherman anti-trust act.
9
Between money in politics, the "winner take all" electoral college, gerrymandering and the attempts to stop minorities from voting, we already don't live in a democracy.
1
It seems to me that conservative dogma, at least in the U.S. today, is faith-based, not evidence-based. In so many areas--Federal Reserve policy, President Obama's birthplace, climate change, the Laffer curve, etc.--they believe things based on faith, not based on evidence.
144
Yes, they are compelled to express beliefs in the preposterous for purported benefits after death. It is beyond bizarre.
1
But, Patrick, faith in WHAT? Faith in lies? Or faith in just blindly believing anything they wish, no matter how crazy, how absurd, or how obviously false? If this is truly the case, people who follow conservative dogma are REALLY abysmal. I, too, would love to have the "faith" to believe fantastical things, mostly spiritual, but it is just too hard to throw analysis and critical thinking out the window. Evidence is everything.
It's not faith babe, it's demagoguery.
Yes, as Prof Krugman asserts, "track records matter".
I have been following his columns in the NYT since they began to appear. I have been most impressed because he is not afraid to make specific economic predictions, and they turn out to be right remarkably often. His Nobel Prize level expertise shows.
More recently, however, he has turned most of his attention to matters of "social policy and politics". I find that his repeated blasts at Trump and all of his works do not differ a great deal from the general run of raving that we have become accustomed to in the quality media since the election. Largely true, but haven't we read enough of the insults by now?
Today's column is particularly interesting because it combines the two disparate elements. The same-old same-old of the first section gives way in the second to the cogent economic analysis that some of us are nostalgic for. Let us hope that it foreshadows a return to what the author does best.
16
Again, I'll suggest PK hold out an olive branch by saying he might be willing to compromise if conservatives simply add the Greenspan disclaimer, "... with certain notable exceptions."
3
One has to be careful with the inflation argument
Fed actions have only a small effect on prices that are set on the supply by international trade: TV's from Mexico, Vegetables from Mexico, Oil from Saudi Arabia, and on the demand side by average Americans, whose wages have been stagnant for 2 decades and did not get their hands on the money printed by the Fed.
How so ?
Because the non credit worthy that needed low interest rates the most could not get their hands on the money , e.g those with underwater mortgages. The credit worthy rich could, aplenty. Mark Zuckerberg used ultra low rates from the Fed printed money to refinance his Palo Alto home with a 1% mortgage (the 1% is not an error). Did he really need to ? No, but why not use free money given to him ? Given because he got at a negative real rate.
Once realize that it was the rich that got the benefit of all the printed money you understand the asset bubble that so alarmed The Economist that it put it on last weeks cover. It is the rampant inflation generated by the Fed's money printing, in all things coveted by the rich: Manhattan and London Real Estate, Strad Violins, stocks and bonds and yes beach houses in St. Croix.
24
Interesting observations, Woof. One way the Fed can affect prices of imported goods in the US and exported goods in other countries is by taking actions that change the value of the dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Krugman has spent a lot of time (unfortunately more in the past than now) explaining all this far better than I could. I would join the chorus of those who hope he will return to the topics he knows so well and that are so complicated for the rest of us.
5
Ask the base. It’s okay when it’s lies for the blue eyed Jesus.
81
The images of a blue eyed, white skinned Jesus always amuses me. In reality, Jesus would have looked like many Syrian refugees look like today. Dark hair, olive skin, middle eastern appearance. The type of people many religious conservatives do their best to keep out of "their" countries today.
2
...and everyone else can die quickly and at low or no cost.
Where reasonable people sit, this is factually called genocide with a wide victim class.
1
What Paul Krugman leaves out about Fed Chair Ben Bernanke
February 2007
BERNANKE:" We expect moderate growth going forward. We believe that if the housing sector begins to stabilize, and if some of the inventory corrections still going on in manufacturing begin to be completed, that there's a reasonable possibility that we'll see some strengthening in the economy sometime during the middle of the new year.
Our assessment is that there's not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy. And the lending side of that still seems to be healthy."
The Fed's responsibility is to supervise the Banks, and to read the economy correctly.
The recored is that Ben Bernake failed both assignments.
9
He read the economy correctly when the chips were falling down and when we were on the way back to recovery, he reverted to his centrist roots, as you can see in this interview with Stephanopoulos. In that respect, there is very little difference between him and any of the prominent centrist economists.
https://www.rimaregas.com/2015/10/11/oh-ben-ben-bernanke-calls-berniesan...
5
The legislation which created and empowers the Fed charged it with two equally vital responsibilities: maintaining steady purchasing power for the dollar and minimizing unemployment. The record appears to show that Bernanke's Fed excelled at both.
7
Monetary policy can't stabilize the value of money without affecting employment rates. Fiscal policy can operate independently on employment rates, but the Fed doesn't have authority to tax and spend for Congress.
The "dual mandate" doesn't work because it is an abrogation of the powers and duties of Congress.
1
For interested readers, I highly recommend Robert Burton's book On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not. Unfortunately, the people who most need to read the book won't do so, because after all they strongly feel that they're right, and they fail to recognize that feeling right doesn't mean being right. But I could be wrong.
90
In one of Patricia Wrede's early fantasy novels there is a character who is certain the king is trying to have him killed. An elderly woman who appears to be eccentric remarks that "People who are the most certain of something are usually wrong." (Quotation approximate.) I've treasured that line for a long time. (The elderly eccentric woman turns out to be wiser and more effective than anyone else -- just to rub in the point.)
8
You're not wrong. Trump has proven over and over again beyond the scintilla of a doubt that he is manifestly unfit for office and the deplorables still drool over him enthusiastically. I no longer think anything will change their mind because their support is a personality cult, and even if they are drinking the Kool-aide and dropping like flies they will continue to worship their new god.
2
Maybe it's time to buy gold again although my grocery store doesn't take it. Trump will screw up the economy. The deficit will soar with these tax cuts. Interest rates will jump and even with the tax cuts, businesses wont't grow because of interest rates. Unemployment will skyrocket and the deficit will get even worse because of the interest rates the government will have to pay China to keep buying more weapons systems assuming Trump doesn't start WWW 3. So I've worked 50 years for this mess.
95
NB,
I'm laughing tears.
Large numbers of voters admire people who never express doubt or admit error. Leaders, military and civilian alike, are trained never to admit doubt where the rank-and-file can hear them. It may be a character flaw, but it may simply be an effective tactic used to achieve what are believed to be morally-defensible objectives.
25
I’ve never understood why a fine, liberal University like Stanford hosts the Hoover Institution, which seems to be a haven for intellectually dishonest quacks and cranks like Taylor. Hoover himself apparently had some redeeming qualities, but his legacy is tarnished by bilge coming out of the Hoover Institution.
194
Since when is Stanford a fine liberal university?
1
It really is not hard to understand. Money.
A characteristic of a sociopath is to adopt a position and never admit to any error.
We know tRump simply makes up stories the he thinks makes him look good to his sycophants. Even when his prevarications are obvious and in many cases ridiculous, he will not admit to any mistake or error. He is a pathological liar, it is embedded in his personality. He has gotten away with it for so long it comes to him naturally. The only difference between him and Harvey Weinstein is, he has used his money to bully others into submission.
Gen. Kelly was an officer and a gentleman, he is now neither, his fellow officers must be cringing at the moment. He has sold his soul to tRump.
Taylor is with the Hoover Institute at Stanford, a conservative economic think tank. He parrots the institutes philosophy, more aligned to the 19th century than the 21st. These people used be known as gold bugs, For them the only real money was gold and silver. That of course limits the amount of money in circulation and brings deflation. This is a case of ideology contradicted by reality. The Feds action prevented a credit meltdown, it allowed the banks to loan at a low rate, and business to pay creditors. Large businesses do not keep large sums in the checking accounts, the actually issue commercial paper, a short term debt to make payroll and current debt, while their cash remains invested at higher rates. This market came within hours of freezing up in 2008, it would have made 1929 look minor.
136
The Taylor rule sets the target Federal Funds rate based on a formula which uses: the neutral interest rate, the expected GDP growth rate, the long-term GDP growth rate, expected inflation rate; and the target inflation rate. The Taylor rule does not always result in a high Federal Funds rate. During the recession the Taylor rule would have required significantly negative interest rates. That and the fact that at any given time the can be wide disagreement as to the value of the Taylor rule inputs, is not the main cause for concern regarding possible adoption of rules-based monetary policy now.
The problem is that now the Taylor rule would suggest a target Federal Funds rate of between 2.7% and 4.0% depending on whose values of the inputs are used. Higher interest rates would seem contrary to most of President Trump's objectives regarding economic growth and trade deficit reduction. However, that does not guarantee he would not act contrary to his longer run objectives. Many are bewildered by actions of Donald Trump that appear to be contrary to his objectives.
Installing advocates of rules-based monetary policy as the chair and members of the Federal Reserve Board could generate short-term gratification as President Trump could be seen by some as fulfilling a promise to his base and early supporters. However, a policy that required much higher interest rates could possibly be disastrous..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4082278
6
The Taylor rule implies that economics has rules. That the study of economics is science - it isn't. It used to be called Political Economy for a reason. Look to our latest Nobel winning economist to see how badly the rule believers got it wrong.
3
"General Kelly was an officer and a gentleman.
Apparently, he was okay with torture at Guantanamo Bay, so, ummm, no.
The last four Republican p[residents messed up the economy. The theory is that GOP economic philosophy is based on something. That is wrong. It has demonstrably failed every time. The rich get tax cuts and spend that money buying up the middle class when the recession hits. That is the plan.
but listening to economists predict the future is like listening to biologists pegging the next evolutionary change. Too many variables.
33
It is not that GOP economic policy has "failed". It works perfectly. The goal is the transfer of wealth upwards. All of it.
Low interest rates just assist that wealth gathering. People on fixed incomes can't survive on non-existent interest and must eat the seed. Before long, all gone.
College debt is stealing the earnings of another generation.
We are living in the "big steal".
2
Well Mr. Krugman, you just made another mistake that you are going to have to apologize for and correct in the near future. You have made this same mistake many times before.
In this analysis, you are trying to apply some kind of logical, rational foundation to a Trump appointment. Trump doesn't do that. He doesn't have the tools to do that. Trump is only interested in total fealty and dedication to his existence. This Taylor fellow would be much better at that than Janet Yellen. She thinks for herself. People like her don't well in Trump world.
Trump knows nothing of monetary policy. Ask him to explain what the Federal Reserve does and how central banking works. It'll be great, let me tell you.
Most likely, Steve Mnuchin told him that Taylor would be the most Wall Street friendly pick and would do whatever he was told. That's probably the long and short of it.
So there you go again. Same mistake. Some people just never learn. Even Nobel laureates. Trying to rationalize a Trump decision. That's your fallibility when you keep trying to analyze Trumpal infallibility. He's nuts, OK.
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Mr. Rozenblit, this time you underestimate Trump, I believe. His appointments are consistently destructive. I don't believe that's a coincidence.
20
I think he's writing to help the rest of us to understand Trump's irrationality, not in the hopes of changing him.
But then we already made the mistake of electing him, so too late.
1
This. This, and this alone is the issue that everyone should be saying.
Ever since B-movie actor Ronald Reagan taught Republicans to 'slip the surly bonds of truth to touch the face of fraud' with a wink and a smile, the Grand Old Prevaricators have been submerged in a proud senile soup of unrepentant Snake Oil that has made Greed Over People a true American art form and a political cult hellbent on sweeping every last red cent into an oligarchic tower of unfettered greed.
Into this Republican political wrestling ring stepped the Greatest Liar of them all, the proud Birther Liar Donald Trump, to great, drooling applause.
“Narcissists will never tell you the truth. They live with the fear of abandonment and can't deal with facing their own shame. Therefore, they will twist the truth, downplay their behavior, blame others and say what ever it takes to remain the victim. They are master manipulators and con artists that don't believe you are smart enough to figure out the depth of their disloyalty. Their needs will always be more important than telling you any truth that isn't in their favor.”
“Narcissists are consumed with maintaining a shallow false self to others. They're emotionally crippled souls that are addicted to attention. Because of this they use a multitude of games, in order to receive adoration. Sadly, they are the most ungodly of God's creations because they don't show remorse for their actions, take steps to make amends or have empathy for others. They are morally bankrupt.”
― Shannon Alder
Hail to the Sociopath-In-Chief !
760
Socrates, with "slip the surly bonds of truth to touch the face of fraud" you outdo yourself. Beautiful.
44
Socrates; I love your quoted definition of an egomaniac but please consider not corrupting quotes from solemn moments of loss such as was the deaths of the crew of the Shuttle Challenger in which Reagan said, loosely quoting; They slipped the surly bonds of Earth to touch the face of God". Thanks.
Not sure Alder is really qualified to speak to mental illness, nor do I form my views from snippets of “inspirational” writing--especially from Mormons (who, for me, have a very skewed view of life).
You write well enough on your own, no need for such lengthy quotes : ))
1
Setting aside the alleged political motivation of the fiscal policy bailout, I have a hard time understanding why QE wasn't, in effect, a fiscal policy bailout? Isn't monetary policy meant to be a triage, an emergency room operation and not a hospital?
1
But the republicans closed the door to the fiscal policy "hospital " and boarded it up. They would not allow much stimulus at all. Remember president Obama practically begged them to pass a strong infrastructure bill and they would have none of it.
It's almost like they want the country to struggle and or collapse.
3
Why would Trump pick an economist as the Fed chair? He only picks people who hate the office they're heading. Pruitt for the EPA. Perry for the Energy Department. DeVos for Education. Trump doesn't need anybody who knows what they're doing because he knows more than anybody, more than generals know.
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So, Linda, I expect Kenneth Haskell, co-author of "Dow 36,000" (in 1999), and recently confirmed as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, to be a leading candidate for Fed chair.
5
How about Jamie Dimon for Yellin's job. Is that far-fetched? Not in this circus.
2
How about Scaramucchi for the Fed. Or Mike Flynn!
Sebastian Gorka. YES!
1
Kelly achieved high rank by successfully working his way up a chain of command. Men who do that in our time don't repeat falsehoods that can be easily found out. So I think that Kelly was presented this fabrication by one of he usual suspects, Trump's people. Kelly is not responding because he does not want to follow one lie with a bunch more to avoid discussing the lack of credibility of this administration. Better to leave it as it is.
If the Fed raises rates, the interest on Treasury Bills goes up. In a slow economy, there are not a lot of good investments in the real economy besides mergers and buyouts of health firms, and so the Treasure Bills are very attractive for saving money until economic growth picks up. Our economy is not going to grow much and where and when good investments will become available is not going to be like it has been during periods of high growth here or globally. So the Treasure Bills are definitely where a lot of money will continue to go, but it would be nice if the interest rates were a lot higher.
7
Perfection speaks: "I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken."
58
The Doctrine of Trumpal Infallibility
People who can’t admit error shouldn’t be making policy.
[ Absolutely perfect and importantly so. ]
54
No Economist should be making policy because the profession is bankrupt without a working Theory of Interest Rates. Janet Yellen saying she has no clue doesn't cut it.
Lies + No apologies = Winning. This is Trump's formula for success. All he needs to do is tweet a lie that benefits Trump. His opponents then need to refute the lie, explain why he should have issued an apology, then express outrage that no such apology is forthcoming. What resonates is the lie. What bores people is the breast-beating over the non-apology. Trump is always the winner in this scenario. History won't be as kind and Trump will be shown to be the biggest loser among presidents of all time, worse than Garfield who was almost as big of a disaster in international relations and who wasn't even alive at this point in his presidency.
148
A well-practiced narcissist and socio-path as we have in the WH -- knows who to play to and ignores the rest. The rules, the laws don't apply to him; which is the credo of an out-of-control addict. Unfortunately, Trump's Republican enablers may not wake up from the trance in time to save the ship of state. Drunk with the power of one-party rule--made possible by election corruption--they are hell-bent on paying off the rich, gutting the safety net, and privatizing government (VA, air controllers, etc. ). Sadly I don't think history will be kind at all, as what we hold most dear may not outlast the pretender and his abettors.
2
Will we have history books after DT? By the time Pruitt gets through wrecking what is left of edible food, drinkable water, and breathable air, who will be physically capable of writing history? And when DeVos and the Koch brothers have wrecked our education system, who will have the intellectual background and perspective to write the true story of the downfall of the world's longest enduring democracy?
2
Sadly, so true. No one seems to have figured out how to respond to Trump’s lies in a way that will catch the short attention span, and blind faith of many of his followers. I’ve often wondered if there would be any more success with headlines that read “Trump generates more fake news about . . . .” Overtime, this would hopefully diminish the impact of his constant fake news claims. Somebody, please figure this out!
2
They won't admit that their economic theories are bunk, because doing so would inconvenience the billionaires and corporations who run the place. And since the mainstream media is owned by these same corporations, most "journalists" don't dare commit the heresy of telling the truth either.
Just as Trump's oafish phone call to Myeshia Johnson was all an act for his base, a sustained dog whistle that also caught a Black congresswoman in its fetid racist blast, so too are the economists=for-hire just supporting actors in the gruesome theater of the class war.
Trump is not stupid - he certainly knew enough to give up the oaf act long enough to act "presidential" and empathetic during Monday's Medal of Honor ceremony for a Vietnam War hero. Nor do the reactionary economists make their own "mistakes" out of ignorance.
For, unless they behave like crazed gunmen acting out violent fantasies in a "stand your ground" state, their propaganda will lose the effectiveness wrought by constant repetition. In a society which has become so economically and socially unequal, they and their rich clients keep telling the same Goebbelsian lies to justify their entirely undeserved power and wealth.
Just like Trump, the last thing they want to do is broadcast any empathy for the people they victimize.
The Right is a huge boulder driving the people they see as cattle right off the edge of a cliff. They can't make mistakes, because that might imply that they actually think, or God forbid, care.
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Broadcasting empathy would put the victims in the spotlight and acknowledge that there are victims. Remember that in Trumpworld there are no victims only winners.
3
In Trumpworld, the only "victim" is Trump.
2
Trump* "is not stupid", huh? He is a genius when it comes to poking the eye of progressives and inflaming the limbic systems of his idolators.
That is less significant than his utter imbecility in seeing, and implementing, policies that foster the common weal.
1
"People are at their worst when they are least accountable for their actions."
- Dr. M. Scott Peck, M.D. from "People of the Lie: The Hope of Curing Human Evil."
(The above quote is paraphrased from memory, was the extracted from
some of the conclusions to an examination to the causes of the My Lai Massacre. Dr. Peck was an Army Psychiatrist assigned to a group by the army to investigate causes of the massacre).
(I ask, when was Trump every held accountable for his actions? Or was every willing to face up to that? And by extension, any of his coterie that make up his White House? Evil will wear the face of a monster, but if that doesn't cut it, it will wear the face of a clown. It appears self evident: moral cowardice will lead one to moral ruin. There is an inevitability about this hanging in the air eminating from the White House outward, to D.C. and extending
throughout the land, and even worse (with the exception of ordinary individual people who react heroically with courage when the times call for it), no sign of any form of containment, structural or otherwise, for the moral ruin or its inevitable consequences, structural or otherwise. Perhaps God has decided to refute all our demands that he bestow his blessings upon us. Might such demands trigger reactions of disgust based upon the actions that follow such demands? I know how we got into this, the ever greater concentration of wealth economically disenfranchised the many and Trump was one reaction.)
41
The time has come the Donald said
To state that wrong is right
In school I was the class dimwit
Even though I was White,
And look at all my clever tweets
Though I can barely write.
I'll void the vicious Estate Tax
That pillages the Rich
Keep undeserving poor less lax
To left notions not switch.
Pretend that tax cuts trickle down,
Cuts for which the Rich itch.
180
The inmates have taken over the asylum and they are wielding real power.
We are in the midst of an existential crisis for democracy in this country.
The power of big money to distort elections, the 24/7 airtime available for unfettered propaganda, the unregulated ability to promote any sort of lie on social media, and the inability to prevent foreign interference in our elections are a prescription for anti-democratic actors to subvert the free and fair functioning of our government and change it into a sort of capitalistic fascism, wrapped in the flag and carrying a bible.
Do not for one moment think that it cannot happen here.
The next three years are crucial.
Resist. Fight. Vote.
3
Good one! To be fair, I wonder if there were ANY people of color attending the military school Trump was sent to after (allegedly) his father discovered his collection of switchblade knives.
And he can also barely read.
3
I went to a rival prep school of NYMA, about the time Trump was there. You are talking a bunch of rough cases! About your question about people of color, I do seem to remember they had a black player on their baseball team. If I remember correctly, it was either Jackie Robinson or Roy Campanella's son.
1
Has this administration ever gotten anything right? I don’t think they have. Every day, virtually without fail, there is yet another outrage created either by stupidity or by the attempt to undo previous stupidity with more stupidity. Those of us who aren’t rich could make a killing in high finance if only we could invest in stupidity futures. It’s a sure thing.
Tax reform is one thing that Republicans should never be in charge of. If taxes are cut, it will be to benefit the rich, and it will be paid for by the middle class. The Health care debate (or, more accurately, debacle) turned into a wealth care scam that would have made our most vulnerable citizens unable to afford medical coverage. Oddly, it was defeated even though the rules almost assured that Republicans would prevail. They can’t even score when they walk up to the goal and drop the ball over the line.
This brings us to the fourth stooge. The president has surrounded himself with such a tainted and self-serving group of cronies and sycophants that any chance of sensible governance, financial policy, tax reform or healthcare proposal is moot. All we can do is cringe and wait for the blast.
There are people who lie for a living, and some do quite well. The president is such a guy. Randy Newman wrote a song years ago that perfectly summed up the current prevaricator in chief. It’s called, “Big Hat, No Cattle.” Clap along. It’ll make the march to hades more fun.
https://youtu.be/hdgcyT_nsBA
350
"This brings us to the fourth stooge. The president has surrounded himself with such a tainted and self-serving group of cronies and sycophants that any chance of sensible governance, financial policy, tax reform or healthcare proposal is moot. All we can do is cringe and wait for the blast."
This presidency, and the GOP it embodies, was never about making good policy. The GOP is the party of the oligarchy and its chief goal was and is turning this nation into an oligarchy so the flow of wealth can be set in one direction only.
The only thing the Kochs didn't plan on was for Trump to reap the rewards of their hard work over decades. But their goals and Trump's are perfectly aligned, hence Pence and the fact that he was in charge of the transition. All these "sycophants" are carrying out the orders of the oligarchy, quietly, from the cabinet offices to which they were appointed. The noise from the White House gives them perfect cover.
The spats, insults, Twitter rants - all designed to keep the base off the scent and the opposition entertained while the Great Undoing is carried out.
---
What Trump Did While We Weren't Looking: https://www.rimaregas.com/2017/10/06/thanks-politico-for-keeping-a-runni...
8
Thanks for the link, gemli - best thing I've heard in ages. I plan to hum it whenever I'm around one of the three Drumpf supporters I know.
3
Well if that isn't just the perfect theme song for DJT! Randy Newman is genius, as is Gemli for pointing this out.
4
If Taylor just keeps predicting inflation year after year for decades, then eventually we'll have inflation and "he'll be right." The cycles of the economy always come around to some inflation eventually. He just needs to wait it out.
That is not a joke. It is exactly what will happen.
132
However, the point should be that prediction is based on politics and not empirical evaluation. The prediction of inflation will, as you note, always happen, we just don't know why and when. Accordingly political prediction to fit the belief is of no real use for planning. We know that summer will come, but if we act on that fact and plant crops in December, we'll have to get bread elsewhere. Empirical data, however, lets us know when to plant. Some years that doesn't work, but planting in December is totally unreliable.
13
I don't disagree, but the Economic field of study currently lacks an overarching theory of interest rates? They admit, Janet Yellen one, that they have no clue.
I believe it has to do with globalization but no one wants to think about ideas that might go against the ideals of yesterday such as free trade is always good.
If we keep our borders and economy open we will never have inflation. We might have everyone working McDonalds but hey, no inflation.... and we can cut taxes and get into thousands of wars.
1
Nothing like a war with NK to blow prices up.
1
While the inability to admit error is not a positive, it has long been an apparent prerequisite to obtain and maintain a position of leadership. In her book, the Guns of August, Barbara Tuchman wrote that the Allied leaders, whose mistakes nearly resulted in a German victory in the first month of the war, never admitted error. More recently, in this country, the professional investors behind the foreclosure crisis not only refuse to admit to their mistakes, but blame food stamp recipients for our nation's ills. Indeed, the refusal to admit error, such as Trump's giving himself a 10 out of 10 in handling the Puerto Rico hurricane debacle, is often our leader's most notable characteristic. It is as Barbara Tuchman observed of a prominent British general, "with an inability to admit error that would one day make him a field marshal..."
234
I've often wondered if a Yelp-like rating would be helpful in evaluating the veracity of pundits. That wouldn't prohibit 1st Amendment rights, but would certainly help one evaluate reliability. "John Taylor says this is inflationary, but then he has a 1.2 believability rating on this sort of thing. A 1.2 is in the Quack range." Accountability in the information marketplace would be a good thing...and make it more fun to arbitrage opinion.
276
We are all experts on the restaurants we like or the service we get from plumbers. We are not all experts about the quality of economic policy.
13
I'm sure not an expert on economic policy. But I know a guy who is.
23
Apparently expert economists are not experts either, if their forecasts are expected to reflect anything near the actual outcome. I can pick a plumber and verify a narrow range of results. Do you really want to give economist prognosticators a pass on the same verifiability? It sounds as if you do.
5
Trump is in power in alliance with his fellow oligarchs, whether or not he was originally a part of their clique, as well as the religious right and the white supremacy. This is who elected Trump for the sole purpose of shrinking government to the size of a bathtub, enriching the .001%, giving the moral majority even more of an upper hand on education, healthcare and certain social justice issues and reinstating some old supremacist orders.
Trump has surrounded himself with a group of people who are faithful to him. We've known that. We've heard here and there that certain advisors and cabinet members have said they're in for the duration to save the nation from Trump. Nonsense! They're there because it's where they want to be and the task of turning this nation into an oligarchy and parceling its riches out to the different oligarchic mafias is their purpose.
That Kelly would defend Trump in the lie against a fallen soldier's widow is unsurprising, when the fallen soldier in question is of African heritage. We have a racist administration run by racists, for racists. You won't hear any apologies from anyone in the White House any more than you will see anyone leave out of principle. They have none.
The nation's media should be doing a better job of informing the public of what is being undone and keeping track of it. Most people have no sense of the "Great Undoing." Trump benefits from that.
===
A Running list of what Trump's been doing
https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2Hk
448
What is happening now, between the attempts at repealing Obamacare and now the new budget and tax reform, is that fiscal policy we needed and should have had from Congress all throughout the Great Recession in tandem with the stimulus from the Fed, is finally about to be enacted. Sadly, we're not only getting too little too late in order to get a much better recovery, but we are getting the kinds of policies that not only will widen the inequality gap even more, but also set us up for the next mega-bubble.
Conservatives who are talking fiscal and monetary policy are playing Kabuki roles in a play. No one who is serious about economics can look at what is on offer and come away with a conclusion that this isn't highway robbery. The middle and working classes are about to be shrunk again. Wall Street will keep doing well. The gig economy will keep growing and, sometime in the near future, we'll have another recession. We are in a cycle that economist Larry Summers has been calling "secular stagnation." Will Trump keep Yellen? It doesn't look like it. He is deciding between two conservative Hoover Institute economists.
===
https://www.rimaregas.com/?s=secular+stagnation+larry+summers
29
Referring to the "moral majority" is a misnomer. It is a self-appointed group of self-righteous people that probably does not represent the majority and includes many hypocrites who are immoral by their self-described standards.
109
MEM,
I don't disagree. There is nothing moral about the likes of Rev. Jeffress. The point was to use a term people know.
17
Deploring everything Dr. K. mentions regarding the real 'deplorables' in this piece, we'd like to point out that many have mentioned His Unhinged Unfitness writing in his books: 'never apologize - it makes you look weak'.
Which seems to be the convenient mantra of GOP'ers anyway.
Regarding the conflict with the Congress-woman, remember we're all just pawns in a reality show episode, and that since we've been talking about this issue from the moment djt raised it, Puerto Rico's suffering and the failed response of D.C. has been bumped off the front pages, hasn't it ?
And His Unhinged Unfitness has given himself a 10 out of 10 rating on the Maria response.
See, another joke !
636
Trump has been the master at changing the conversation, R. Law. Every scandal, tweet, fake news about fake news, you name it, has changed the conversation from what's wrong with Trump, what Trump is doing, what his cabinet is doing under cover of breaking news about everything but what really matters.
While we're busy talking about this or that gaffe, what is happening? A lot.
A week ago on Sunday we learned that our own elected officials voted in favor of a bill that makes it impossible for the DEA to prosecute Big Pharma in the opioid crisis. 200,000 people and counting have died. Are we still talking about that today? Did you know that Trump's oligarch partner, the Mercer family, has something to do with the opioid crisis? Not many do.
Trump may look unhinged, but what is being done by him and others in his name, is part of a plan.
---
What is getting undone as we are distracted by Trump?
https://www.rimaregas.com/2017/08/26/while-trump-tweets-away-democracys-...
162
By this stage we (anyone with eyes and ears and a willingness to look and listen) all know what the GOP’s goals are and what Trump’s character flaws are. We must decide to fight against their policy proposals, at the moment tax cuts, and not become distracted by Trump’s diversionary tactics. People must stay focused and fight with the same energy and urgency that was used to defeat, at least for now, “repeal and replace” legislation. We must call out the total travesty of their tax cut package and methods to sneak it past us, not just nitpick on bits and pieces of it.
1) As with the ACA repeal attempt, this legislation is being cooked up behind locked closed doors in the dead of night to be sprung on us at the last minute with the hope that we won’t have time to organize opposition before they rush to pass it without it being scored. We can’t let that happen.
2) Start by denouncing their claims that most ordinary people are clamoring for a tax cut at any cost, while we know it’s only wealthy donors (openly threatening individual legislators with reprisals), some wealthy individuals and corporations, And there will surely be out of pocket costs for those least able to pay due to cuts to Medicaid, Medicare and all manner of subsidies to those in the lower income brackets. Any meager cuts for lower and middle income families will be offset by a myriad of proposals (SALT, 401(k) deductions, etc.) that they will try to hide in the fine print. We can’t allow this.
(continues)
21
And to do it right we must also offer a different path. There must be a way to lower taxes on truly small businesses, lower rates on salaried middle class earnings or raising the earned-income tax credits and not slashing benefits for the poor, the sick and the elderly. Money they receive is more likely to be spent or invested, than it would be by the wealthy, thus stimulating the real economy and not the world of Wall Street financial markets. Taxes on the wealthy and corporations (who are doing all right as is, see for example the stock market) wouldn’t actually need to be raised and might even see minimum cuts out of “fairness”. Besides, it stand to reason that they would also benefit if the economy took off through increased consumer demand. And investment in America’s future (infrastructure, education, scientific research, clean energy, disease control, the environment, etc.) must continue as it will contribute to making our country a better place for all. But this can’t be done by slashing revenues and increasing the debt with nothing to show for it (I know the debt went up under President Obama but don’t forget the Great Recession: we survived it and that what we got to show for the money spent).
Come on people, let’s do it!
15