Chinese dictator Xi (falsely called "President" by the NY Times), the chair of the Central Committee of the Chinese Community Party and the protector of North Korea's nuclear-armed madman Kim, controls the lives of more than 1 BILLION people.
The NY Times is little better than FOX News. "False news" is found throughout the media, not just on FOX.
China is facing several structural problems that may leave it's leaders, irrespective of their political persuasion, floundering.
#1 - Demographics....because of the one-child policy that existed for almost forty years, China will soon enter a period of time where there will not be enough young people/workers to support an increasingly old population. We all saw what happened to Japan in similar demographic circumstances.
#2 - Education....At present, the education system is far too focused on test-taking, i.e. the Zhongkao and the Gaokao. While it produces students who often excel at taking tests, they generally lack the real life skills such as teamwork, problem-solving, thinking outside the box, etc. needed to be successful in the real world, something that will eventually hinder China economically.
#3 - Environmental degradation....pretty self-explanatory....
The key data point to watch is the flow of money and human capital....as long as the upper classes are sending their kids abroad for high school/college and moving their money out of the country, you will know that the proverbial "fish" is still rotting.
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Both People inside and outside China interested in China's future political, economic, and military developments are watching the 19th CPC Congress very closely since Oct. 18, 2017. A lot of speculations about who will be the seven new Politburo Standing Committee members before the conclusion of the Congress. It is indeed very difficult to say but only one person knows this is Xi Jinping himself. As an amateur China observer for the past 60 years in the U.S., I would like to predict that the following persons could be picked by Xi Jinping:
1) Xi Jinping
2) Li Keqiang
3) Li Zhanshu (New Member most trusted by Xi)
4) Wang Qishan(Current member but Xi needs him for Anti-Corruption)
5) Han Zheng (Shanghai Party Secretary)
6) Wang Yang (Vice-Premier, for economic an foreign affairs)
7) Hu Chunhua or Chen Miner (More likely Hu Chunhua)
I watched the opening ceremony of the 19th CPC Congress from 9:00 p.m-1:30 A.M. non-stop for four hours and I plan to continue to watch until its conclusion. It is better than to watch CNN or Fox TV News. I hate American silly comedies, not very funny. I hope my prediction will be 70% correct. Good luck Chinese people. Looking forward to visiting Beijing after the 19th Congress.
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Selection of leaders in China occurs within the black box of a Leninist party apparatus, but it is based on previous performance in technocratic positions within government at all levels and the business (SOE) sectors. The unknown is the selection process on the way up. There are intense factional struggles within the CCP across lines as regional authorities and the central Beijing authorities play out often conflicting roles; well documented in Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation by Victor C. Shih.
Xi Jinping’s appointment to party general secretary and president were not forecast a short period before they occurred. Will be interesting to see if the prognostications here are in the ball park in the following day.
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The arrival of the Xi-Li combination in 2012 promised a revitalized administration facing off against some lingering needs to bring the operation of the Communist party as agent into line with government by Law and Constitutional Authority. A rich arrays of reforms were constructed vocalized primarily by premier Li Keqiang.
Then Xi Jinping went to Shenzhen and gave his warning on how Gorbachev’s reforms and the military’s separation from party control crashed the Soviet Union. Reforms and indeed the premier himself faded into the background.
Now if Xi feels he has stabilized the element of control, reforms may blossom or not. Who sits at the lead table will give a hint. But international affairs could also pay a much larger role than before with America becoming an ‘indeterminate’ element in China’s future.
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The next five years will be be the bridge to a new 21st century economic paradigm for all countries, including China, because of technological advances.
What are the various candidates' positions on AI ecosystems, robotics, and the digital revolution, in general, in the context of economic reform?
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Even if appointment of a reformer helps Chinese, it will not cause discrimination against non-Chinese to ebb. There are millions of Chinese Americans, but no American Chinese. A leopard cannot change its spots.
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Be careful, China. One-man rule has a very long history of disastrous outcomes.
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I am not sure of the correlation between a strong one-man (person?) and disaster. Yes, there were Hitler and Gengus Khan. But there were also Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and Lee Kuan Yew, not to mention Deng Xiaoping - all game-changers for the better.
How do you accurately measure and compare wider or narrower control, as it impacts outcomes?
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As outsiders speculate on who will join China's top Management Team, the 7-member Politburo Standing Committee, Keith Bradsher's report reveals the contrasting paths to leadership for a tier-1 country, which China now belongs. He recounted the track records and achievements of the potential candidates. This should be familiar to people who read MBA textbooks on human resource practices. In a Meritocracy, past successes on the resume is a strong indicator of the job applicant's future performance. What a contrast to how reporters write about American politics these days. In the Donald Trump era, pundits are never tired of comparing the antics of the Trump White House and the Congress to "Game of Thrones": the brutality, double-crossing, back-stabbing, sexual assaults, incest, murders, black magic, greed, ego, ambitions, sycophants, nepotism. It's all there. With the current cast of Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, etc USA gets the best of Reality Shows on the international stage.
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"the brutality, double-crossing, back-stabbing, sexual assaults, incest, murders, black magic, greed, ego, ambitions, sycophants, nepotism"
Kind of a confusing comment, because that actually sounds more like the MBA curriculum. Except incest; that is one that I haven't seen with MBA's I've worked with, I must admit.
To imply even tangentially that the textbook MBA model is related in any way, shape, or form to a "meritocracy" is ludicrous.
Also, most Chinese leaders have been engineers, not MBA's, which may explain why they have outperformed us so impressively.
China will be in good shape in the near future. Wang Yang & Hu Chunhua will be good for China due to their closer experiences to the outside world & HK. Messer. Chang & Chen are lesser known to the westerners. But as long as Mr. Xi can perform as good as those of the first 5 years, then there is nothing to worry about. In addition, I am sure that he has a ear-full advice from his Ivy league trained daughter over the years.
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Xi has advocated innovation as engine of growth, as well as structural economic reforms , which one may say are more fundamental economic reforms. Xi also cares a lot about environmental protection. I would think they work as a team.
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