Trump will not pick a competent woman like Yellen. He has criticized her policy in his campaign so why should he stick with her now when i) we are not in crisis mode; ii) he clearly prefers women in most of the important positions that he has appointed and iii) this is an easy box to check in terms of fulfilling election campaign promises.
The trouble is that Trump needs someone who is not too hawkish given that he wants to enact big infrastructure spending and nearly everything he is doing will run up the deficit and debt. What Yellen has going for her is that she probably offers the most dovish Fed that most likely won't get in the way of him reaching his 3% real GDP growth target.
I would bet on odds of 60% for change and 40% on Yellen staying.
Barron T. Criteria: a Trump, male and not a public embarrassment.
1
Let's not fix something that ai'nt broke. Janet Yellen , the Federal Reserve Chief has done a wonderful job maneuvering the Country into a safe zone. Let her continue instead of someone learning the ropes.
Aside from everything else, it will be a man. Therefore, not Yellen, who doesn't "look like" someone who leads the Fed. See: Rex Tillerson. That's working out well......
2
Given the propensity of Mr. Trump to name individuals to head agencies who are quite detrimental to our national interest, we should be happy if someone other than Sheldon Adelson, who has been frequently cited in Forbes pieces for complicity in laundering dirty money for the Chinese mob, for the Chair of the Federal Reserve Board.
Mr. Adelson donated some $89 million to Mr. Trump and other GOP candidates during the 2016, apparently a strong criteria in his previous selections.
3
If he stays true to form trust Trump to select the LEAST qualified candidate.
4
An "EXPERT" on assessing odds of who Trump will nominate? Stop this nonsensical usage of the term expert. An expert displays replicate competency in performing a given task or activity. Credentials--no matter how (presumably) impressive---do not qualify as expertise.
1
Can Trump never stop treating every blasted thing like a reality TV competition?
1
Glenn Hubbard?? He already was a FED Governor and he served only two years of his fourteen year term and then quit during the worst US financial crisis in 80 years to "edit his textbook." That should disqualify him for life. Yellen does not have to step down as governor once Trump appoints someone else to be Chair as she has nine years left on her term. That means she would remain one of 12 votes on the FOMC and would have as much clout as the new Chair when it comes to setting interest rates.
2
I doubt that Janet Yellen will be renominated.
She is probably the best Federal Chair we have had, but our so-called President is not smart enough to realize that.
5
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Re-appoint Yellin.
4
"So far, not even a credible list of the finalists has leaked from the White House."
Please somebody, tell me something, and tell me honestly: Has anything that could be deemed credible, anything at all, come from the White House, leaked or otherwise, since Mr. Trump's inauguration?
Is that crickets that I hear?
2
Financial markets don't like a lot of change. Better to re-appoint Yellin than throw the dice and see what you come up with.
4
It's hard to believe, but Ms. Yellen, though brilliant and accomplished, isn't attractive enough to be renominated by a man who is looking for a TV persona to fill a role.
4
One part of the problem is that Trump seems incapable of focusing on anything other than himself, his profits, and occasionally, his family. Presumably, some members of his staff do focus; but how successful they are able to persuad Trump to focus is an entirely different question
1
With congress locked in internecine party warfare, the Supreme Court on an ideological train back to the nineteenth century, and the president barking at the moon, it's been up to Federal Reserve to keep the lights on. Under Yellen and the governors the Fed has done a good job. But Trump will not reappoint Yellen, if for no other reason than because she is a woman.
So who will Trump appoint? There are plenty of right wingers who aren't economists but who play one on talk shows. Probably one of those. And it is very important to Republicans that the next chair be virulently anti-regulation, to keep Wall Street bankers happy and donating. Dodd Frank really cramps their style.
8
Kevin Warsh was generally considered a lightweight by Fed staff when he was a Governor. Hard to believe he would make an effective Chair.
1
I'd like to see either Brooksley Born or Sheila Bair. Though neither is an economist, both saw the 2008 financial crisis coming. As Fed chair, either one would have used their regulatory powers better or more effectively than Greenspan or Bernanke did.
And if Trump has his way with tax cuts, deficit spending, and deregulation of the financial industry, another financial crisis is almost a foregone conclusion.
2
Since the appointment of Alan Greenspan on August 11, 1987, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve has been chaired by an economist. The three most recent appointees earned their Ph.D. from, New York University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Yale (Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen). In many respects, if the U.S. Senate confirmed someone without comparable academic credentials, it would over politicize the appointment and signal more deference to the president's economic views then an ability to chart a course for monetary policy to the benefit of the dynamic U.S. economy.
5
If his past performances are any indication of what Trump's choice will be, it will be someone with absolutely no experience or knowledge of what the job will entail. Right up there with Rick Perry, Scott Pruitt, Ben Carson - the list goes on.
8
Perhaps the exceedingly well-qualified Ivanka or Jared?
11
Is Jared too busy?
18
The Federal Reserve Board is a committee of top bankers and some academics, appointed by the President and confirmed by Congress to give the Fed an illusion of "official government independence." The Fed's loyalty is to Wall Street and the banking industry, because its members ARE BANKERS. Of course, the loyalty of the White House and Congress is also to Wall Street. "He who pays the piper, calls the tune."
5
No mystery here, it will be Jared.
1
One could envision a possible doomsday scenario for the financial markets and then likely the economy arising from very unfortunate choices by President Trump regarding appointments to the Federal Reserve Board. Logically, that should not happen. However, everything that has happened in the past year may not have followed logic.
Logically, a low interest rate policy would improve the already long odds against Trump's budget assumptions of 3% real growth. Low interest rates would also help the trade deficit. However, President Trump may not be able to resist the temptation to reward some of his early supporters by appointing monetary "hawks" to the Federal Reserve Board who would raise interest rates precipitously. Since most mainstream Republican economists were originally in the "Never Trump" camp during the primaries, some monetary crackpots were able to have their populist views heard in the Trump campaign and administration.
The closing Trump advertisement in the election railed against a supposed cabal of international elite financial figures who were claimed to be causing America's decline. It pictured financier George Soros, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein as the prime villains. Trump's inaugural address also reiterated the populist theme that the day of revenge against financial elites has arrived. Presumably, those in the Trump campaign who prepared the anti-Janet Yellen advert..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4082278
3
dt* is too stupid to reappoint Yellen; he's a person who'd rather make a 'splash' than to use good sense.
3
I think he will nominate the person who dresses Melania for the position. Makes sense.
6
There are no "experts" on what the Trump administration might do. I greatly doubt that Yellen has more than a vanishing small chance of being the choice, after all Obama nominated her so why would Trump continue that?
8
Exactly right. She's a goner.
Plus, doesn't anybody realize that Trump HATES being told what to do? And hates being predictable. He has the emotional makeup of a toddler.
2
Exactly right. Yellin's a gonner.
Trump HATES being told what to do, so suggestions from outside will only lessen his inclination to pick that person. He has the emotional mindset of a toddler.
1
Just exactly why would one want to put another Alan Greenspan in as Fed Chair? He was the worst Fed Chair in American history. Kevin Warsh is another Greenspan. Can anyone explain this?
7
@James Jones
Kevin Warsh is in the mix for ONE reason: He's a 'deep red republican'.
Not necessarily a stand out reason to appoint him, but then again, this is trump we're talking about......a man who's idea of "deep thoughts" is straight from the pages of SNL's Jack Handy.
7
Given his track record, I'm betting he'll pick someone who couldn't pass 3rd grade math, can't balance a check book, has dyscalculia, & believes in the barter system, not monetary policy.
21
, not all monetary hawks are crackpots. Since at least 2010 there have been many thoughtful and intelligent "adults" predicting and/or advocating for higher interest rates. Those adults calling for higher interest rates employed reasonable arguments based on sound economic theory. However, they were completely wrong, certainly with regard to their forecasts and arguably with regard to their policy proscriptions. There were also others calling for higher interest rates using arguments that displayed profound ignorance of facts and economics.
The more ignorant of the monetary populists and gold bugs claimed that the Federal Reserve was engineering an imminent collapse of the dollar and massive inflation. Some argued that higher interest rates would promote increased real investment, which is contrary to all macroeconomic principles. Some, idiotically claimed that the Federal Reserve was an enabler of the federal deficits, since absent the Federal Reserve's low interest-rate policy the US would be forced to cut spending.
Some with populist anti-banker, anti-central banking views filled some of the vacuum left in the Trump campaign by the absence of most mainstream Republican economists in the Trump camp. There is a much more respected school of thought which thinks that the Federal Reserve has too much power and/or operates with too much discretion. They favor a rules-based monetary policy. These may now be the most dangerous.."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4082278
2
Paul Ryan!
Yellen is 71....time for her to retire. Every member of Congress should move on after attaining their70th birthday. The country needs to have younger leadership and too many positions are becoming filled with senior citizens. Generally, people in their 50's are mentally quicker and more physically able than those in their 70's and 80's. Or, as is often said, have "fire in their belly" for a job.
2
Age does not bring quicker mentation or greater physical agility, but it does bring greater experience and keener judgement-----just the qualities one needs to be a good Federal Chair.
4
"Generally speaking" my experience as an owner of rental properties that people with certain characteristics (demographics), should I turn such applicants away? PLEASE--stereotyping does not work as an effective nor just decision rule. BTW, I am 73 and climbed Grouse Grind 3 times this summer and Sea to Summit. I would write more on this point, but I am about to leave for my morning 6 mile run.
3
I meant in my earlier post, that my experience in renting properties has yielded some "in general" observations as to those demographics that correlate negatively with desired tenant performance, but I do not select "generally"--I select specific people. Likewise, please stop the stereotyping about age.
The problem with trump is getting him to even appoint someone (many still not appointed 8 months later). The second problem is will the appointee do the job following the legislation that defines the duties and responsibilities.
1
Those not yet nominated (especially over at state) are most likely going to be eliminated, the fed chairman is not in this group. You can't cut the budget without reducing compensation costs and that means fewer employees, a lot fewer empolyees.
1